Barclays PLC (BCS) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to Barclays Q3 2025 results analyst and investor conference call. I will now hand over to CS Venkatakrishnan, Group Chief Executive; before I hand over to Anna Cross, Group Finance Director.

    歡迎參加巴克萊銀行2025年第三季業績分析師和投資者電話會議。現在我將把發言權交給集團執行長 CS Venkatakrishnan;之後我將把發言權交給集團財務總監 Anna Cross。

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Barclays third quarter 2025 results call. We are well into the second half of the three year plan, which we shared with you in February 2024. I'm very pleased with the momentum and consistency of progress which we have shown in the last seven quarters. This quarter, our top line income increased by 11% to GBP7.2 billion from GBP6.5 billion in the same quarter last year.

    各位早安。感謝您參加巴克萊銀行2025年第三季業績電話會議。我們已經進入了三年計劃的後半段,該計劃於 2024 年 2 月與大家分享。我對我們在過去七個季度中所展現出的勢頭和持續進步感到非常滿意。本季度,我們的營業收入成長了 11%,從去年同期的 65 億英鎊增至 72 億英鎊。

  • Our income growth has allowed our tangible net asset value per share NAV to rise to GBP3.92 compared to GBP3.84 per share in the previous quarter. And we have delivered a third quarter RoTE of 10.6%, which equates to 12.3% for the year-to-date 2025. We are, therefore, upgrading our 2025 RoTE guidance to greater than 11%, and we are reaffirming our 2026 target of more than 12%.

    由於收入成長,我們的每股有形淨值 (NAV) 增至 3.92 英鎊,而上一季為每股 3.84 英鎊。我們第三季的資本報酬率 (RoTE) 為 10.6%,相當於 2025 年年初至今的 12.3%。因此,我們將 2025 年的 RoTE 指導目標上調至 11% 以上,並重申 2026 年的目標為 12% 以上。

  • Our returns are supported by a stronger outlook for stable income. We now expect group NII for 2025 to be more than GBP12.6 billion, up from more than GBP12.5 billion, and this has been supported by UK lending momentum, positive stability and operational progress in the US Consumer Bank. Further, we are pleased to bring forward a portion of our full year distribution plan with a GBP500 million share buyback.

    我們的收益得益於更強勁的穩定收入前景。我們現在預計 2025 年集團淨利息收入將超過 126 億英鎊,高於先前預測的 125 億英鎊,這得益於英國貸款的成長勢頭、積極的穩定性和美國消費者銀行的營運進展。此外,我們很高興提前實施全年分紅計畫的一部分,其中包括5億英鎊的股票回購。

  • This is the result of a strong capital generation of a CET1 ratio of 14.1% and disciplined execution of our capital priorities. This buyback will commence as soon as the current one is completed. Looking ahead, we plan to announce buybacks quarterly, reflecting the consistency of our capital generation, and this is subject as usual to regulatory and board approvals.

    這是強勁的資本累積(CET1比率達14.1%)以及我們嚴格執行資本優先事項的結果。本次回購將在目前回購完成後立即開始。展望未來,我們計劃按季度宣布股票回購計劃,以反映我們資本產生的穩定性,但這仍需像往常一樣獲得監管機構和董事會的批准。

  • And we reiterate our guidance to return at least GBP10 billion of capital over our three year plan with a progressive increase in the total payout for 2025 versus 2024. Over the past seven quarters, we have simplified our businesses, rebalanced our footprint and are generating higher returns.

    我們重申,在三年計畫內,我們將至少返還 100 億英鎊的資本,並且 2025 年的總派息額將比 2024 年逐步增加。在過去的七個季度裡,我們簡化了業務,重新調整了佈局,並獲得了更高的回報。

  • Our progress has raised our expectations and we see how much more potential there is to be realized in Barclays. Hence, alongside our full year results for 2025, Anna and I aim to share with you new targets for Barclays through to 2028.

    我們的進展提高了我們的期望,我們看到了巴克萊銀行還有多少潛力可以發揮。因此,除了公佈 2025 年全年業績外,我和 Anna 還計劃與大家分享巴克萊銀行到 2028 年的新目標。

  • The group is delivering strong top line momentum, efficiency savings that are earlier than planned and loan losses within our planning range. We are well positioned to achieve the circa 61% cost income target for 2025 despite an additional provision for motor finance, and this reflects strong delivery of planned efficiency savings.

    該集團實現了強勁的營收成長勢頭,效率提升比計劃提前完成,貸款損失也控制在了計劃範圍內。儘管增加了汽車金融的準備金,但我們仍有望實現 2025 年成本收入比約為 61% 的目標,這反映出計畫中的效率提升措施取得了顯著成效。

  • And we are managing credit within our range with a 57 basis point loan loss rate and this is despite a well-publicized single name charge in the Investment Bank. Our plan is delivering operational improvements across each of our divisions and is driving structurally higher and more consistent returns.

    儘管投資銀行曾因單一名稱貸款而受到廣泛關注,但我們仍將信貸管理控制在合理範圍內,貸款損失率為 57 個基點。我們的計劃正在各部門帶來營運改進,並推動結構性地提高和更穩定的回報。

  • In the third quarter, we received our circa GBP500 million gross efficiency savings target for 2025, and this is one quarter earlier than planned. And we remain focused on delivering the circa GBP2 billion gross efficiency target by the end of 2026, having achieved GBP1.5 billion so far.

    第三季度,我們實現了 2025 年約 5 億英鎊的毛效率提升節省目標,比原計劃提前了一個季度。我們將繼續專注於實現 2026 年底約 20 億英鎊的總效率目標,目前已實現 15 億英鎊。

  • All divisions generated a double-digit RoTE again this quarter. This included a 1.3 percentage point year-on-year improvement in the Investment Bank's RoTE to 10.1%, and a 2.6 percentage point improvement in the US Consumer Bank to 13.5%, reflecting continued operational progress in the business. And we are driving stronger and more consistent group returns through active and disciplined capital management.

    本季所有部門的股東報酬率均再次達到兩位數。其中包括投資銀行的股本回報率年增 1.3 個百分點至 10.1%,美國消費者銀行的股本回報率年增 2.6 個百分點至 13.5%,反映出該業務持續的營運進步。我們透過積極、嚴謹的資本管理,推動集團實現更強勁、更穩定的回報。

  • We are rebalancing the group by growing RWAs in the three highest returning UK businesses where we continue to see good momentum. We are simplifying the group. And in August, we announced the sale of our stake in Entercard to Swedbank. And we are demonstrating our commitment to shareholder distributions with today's buyback announcement.

    我們正在透過增加英國回報率最高的三家企業的 RWA 來重新平衡集團,因為我們看到這些企業繼續保持良好的發展勢頭。我們正在簡化小組。8 月,我們宣布將我們在 Entercard 的股份出售給瑞典銀行。我們今天宣布的股票回購計劃,正反映了我們對股東分紅的承諾。

  • In summary, the momentum of our operational progress has increased our confidence and expectations for the group, improvements in the consistency of our returns also mean that we are more strongly equipped to help clients navigate the still uncertain environment and to provide a foundation for our plan and targets through to 2028, which we look forward to discussing with you in February.

    總而言之,我們營運進展的勢頭增強了我們對集團的信心和期望,收益穩定性的提高也意味著我們更有能力幫助客戶應對仍然不確定的環境,並為我們到 2028 年的計劃和目標奠定基礎,我們期待在 2 月份與您討論這些計劃和目標。

  • Anna, over to you now to take us through the third quarter financials.

    安娜,現在請你為我們介紹一下第三季的財務狀況。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Thank you, Venkat, and good morning, everyone. Slide 4 summarizes the financial highlights for the third quarter. Before going into detail, I would remind you that the year-on-year performance in Q3 was impacted by a weaker US dollar, which reduced our reported income, costs and impairments.

    謝謝你,文卡特,大家早安。第 4 張投影片總結了第三季的財務亮點。在詳細說明之前,我想提醒各位,第三季同比業績受到美元走軟的影響,導致我們報告的收入、成本和減損損失減少。

  • Return on tangible equity was 10.6%, including double-digit returns in all five divisions. This was lower than last year, reflecting 8% growth in tangible book value and a GBP235 million motor finance provision, which also reduced our profit before tax and earnings per share.

    有形權益報酬率為 10.6%,其中五個部門的報酬率均達到兩位數。這一數字低於去年,反映出有形帳面價值成長了 8% 以及提列了 2.35 億英鎊的汽車金融撥備,也降低了我們的稅前利潤和每股收益。

  • Notwithstanding this provision, I remain focused as ever on the operational performance of the business, which have continued to strengthen and the signs of momentum that I described to you last quarter are visible across the businesses in today's results.

    儘管有此規定,我仍然一如既往地專注於公司的營運業績,這些業績持續增強,我上個季度向你們描述的勢頭在今天的業績中已在各個業務部門得到體現。

  • Income in Q3 increased 9% year-on-year to GBP7.2 billion. This was driven by growth in stable income streams, now accounting for 76% of group income from retail and corporate and financing within markets. Group net interest income increased 16% year-on-year to GBP3.3 billion. We now expect group NII excluding IBN head office to be more than GBP12.6 billion for FY25, up from more than GBP12.5 billion previously, driven by three developments.

    第三季營收年增 9%,達到 72 億英鎊。這主要得益於穩定收入來源的成長,目前這些收入來源佔集團零售、企業和市場融資收入的 76%。集團淨利息收入年增 16%,達到 33 億英鎊。我們現在預計,在以下三個方面推動下,2025 財年集團淨利息收入(不包括 IBN 總部)將超過 126 億英鎊,高於先前的 125 億英鎊。

  • First, the signs of UK lending momentum that I called out last quarter have continued and in place has strengthened. Second, operational progress in the US Consumer Bank is translating into stronger NII growth of 12% year-on-year this quarter.

    首先,我上個季度提到的英國信貸成長動能已經延續並加強。其次,美國消費者銀行的營運進展轉化為本季更強勁的淨利息收入年增 12%。

  • And third, stable deposits for the group have supported full reinvestment of the structural hedge at yields that exceeded our planning assumption. We have now locked in GBP11.8 billion of gross structural hedge income in 2025 and 2026, up from GBP11.1 billion last quarter.

    第三,集團穩定的存款支持了結構性對沖的全面再投資,收益率超過了我們的計劃假設。我們目前已鎖定 2025 年和 2026 年 118 億英鎊的結構性對沖總收入,高於上一季的 111 億英鎊。

  • Whilst our plan assumes that we reinvest 90% maturing hedges at 3.5%, Q3 was more favorable on both yield and notional. We have locked in hedges at a higher rate than planned at circa 3.8%. The stability of hedgeable customer balances throughout 2025 also underpinned two developments.

    雖然我們的計劃假設我們將 90% 到期的對沖資金以 3.5% 的利率進行再投資,但第三季在收益率和名目金額方面都更加有利。我們以高於計劃的利率(約 3.8%)鎖定了對沖頭寸。2025 年全年可對沖客戶餘額的穩定性也支撐了兩項發展。

  • First, we have fully reinvested in maturing balances for the past four quarters with the national standing at GBP233 billion in Q3. We now expect the hedge notional to remain broadly stable. And second, our decision this quarter to increase the average hedge duration from 3 to 3.5 years. This increase reflects the stability of hedgeable balances and further supports the predictability of structural hedge income.

    首先,在過去的四個季度裡,我們已將到期餘額全部再投資,第三季全國餘額達到 2,330 億英鎊。我們現在預計對沖名目金額將保持大致穩定。其次,本季我們決定將平均避險期限從 3 年增加到 3.5 年。這一增長反映了可對沖餘額的穩定性,並進一步支持了結構性對沖收入的可預測性。

  • As we said previously, the structural hedge is expected to drive multiyear NII growth beyond 2026. For 2027, specifically, the yield on maturing hedges is around 2.1%, which remains significantly below the expected reinvestment rate.

    正如我們之前所說,結構性對沖預計將推動 2026 年以後的多年 NII 成長。具體來說,2027 年到期的對沖收益率約為 2.1%,遠低於預期的再投資率。

  • Moving on to costs. The group cost income ratio was 63% in Q3. Total costs increased by around GBP500 million year-on-year or 14% which included a GBP235 million motor finance provision within head office. Following the FDA's proposal for an industry-wide redress scheme our charge reflects the increased likelihood of a greater number of cases being eligible for address.

    接下來談談成本。第三季集團成本收入比為 63%。總成本年增約 5 億英鎊,增幅達 14%,其中包括總部 2.35 億英鎊的汽車金融準備金。繼 FDA 提出行業範圍內的賠償方案後,我們的收費反映了符合資格的案件數量可能增加。

  • Specifically, the provision has been calculated using a scenario-based approach with probability weightings being applied to them. As Venkat mentioned, we have already delivered circa GBP500 million of gross efficiency savings in 2025, showing further progress towards the circa GBP2 billion target by the end of 2026. Around half of the increase in investment costs related to the addition of Tesco Bank. The remainder relates to structural cost actions in the quarter with around GBP190 million recognized so far this year.

    具體而言,該準備金是採用基於情境的方法計算的,並對各種情境應用了機率權重。正如 Venkat 所提到的,我們在 2025 年已經實現了約 5 億英鎊的毛效率節省,這表明我們朝著 2026 年底約 20 億英鎊的目標取得了進一步進展。約一半的投資成本增加與收購 Tesco Bank 有關。其餘部分與本季的結構性成本措施有關,今年迄今已確認約 1.9 億英鎊。

  • And looking ahead, we expect structural cost actions to be around the top of the GBP200 million to GBP300 million normal annual range during 2025. Inclusive of the motor finance provision, we remain well positioned to deliver a circa 61% cost income ratio in 2025, in line with guidance and the high 50%s target in 2026.

    展望未來,我們預計 2025 年結構性成本措施將達到 2 億至 3 億英鎊的正常年度範圍的上限。包括汽車金融業務在內,我們仍有望在 2025 年實現約 61% 的成本收入比,符合預期,並在 2026 年實現 50% 以上的目標。

  • Turning now to impairment. The Q3 group impairment charge of GBP632 million equated to a loan loss rate of 57 basis points. This includes a lower-than-expected day one charge following the acquisition of General Motors card balances due to lower-than-forecast delinquency rates on the book. Excluding this effect, the group loan loss rate was 52 basis points. This included the circa GBP110 million single name charge in the investment bank.

    現在來談談損害賠償問題。第三季集團減損支出為 6.32 億英鎊,相當於貸款損失率為 57 個基點。由於通用汽車信用卡餘額的逾期率低於預期,因此收購通用汽車信用卡餘額後的第一天費用低於預期。剔除此因素的影響,集團貸款損失率為 52 個基點。這其中包括投資銀行約 1.1 億英鎊的單一名稱費用。

  • More broadly, the UK and US credit picture remains benign with low and stable delinquencies in our consumer books and wholesale loan loss rates below our through-the-cycle expectations. And we continue to expect a group loan loss rate within the through-the-cycle guidance of 50 to 60 basis points for FY 2025.

    更廣泛地說,英國和美國的信貸狀況依然良好,我們的消費者貸款違約率低且穩定,批發貸款損失率低於我們整個週期的預期。我們繼續預期 2025 財年集團貸款損失率將維持在 50 至 60 個基點的週期性指引範圍內。

  • Focusing on the US Consumer Bank, 90 day delinquencies are stable with a seasonal 10 basis point increase in 30 day delinquencies in the quarter to 2.9%. Consumer behavior remains resilient as can be seen on slide 39 in the appendix.

    以美國消費者銀行為例,90 天逾期率維持穩定,而 30 天逾期率在本季季節性上升 10 個基點至 2.9%。從附錄第 39 頁投影片可以看出,消費者行為仍具有韌性。

  • Excluding the day one charge for GM, the loan loss rate of 436 basis points was broadly stable year-on-year. As a reminder, Q4 impairments tend to be seasonally higher, and we continue to expect a post-acquisition stage migration charge with the GM portfolio, circa GBP50 million for the next few quarters.

    除去通用汽車首日的費用,貸款損失率為 436 個基點,與去年同期相比基本保持穩定。提醒大家,第四季的減損損失通常會因季節原因而增加,我們預計未來幾季通用汽車投資組合的收購後階段遷移費用約為 5,000 萬英鎊。

  • Turning now to our UK lending momentum. We have now shown the slide for a few quarters, and I'm pleased to say that momentum continues. Let me call out some highlights rather than talking through each area in detail. In mortgages, we have grown balances for the past five quarters and Q3 net lending of GBP3.1 billion was higher than in any quarter since 2021.

    現在讓我們來看看我們在英國的貸款業務發展勢頭。我們已經連續幾個季度呈現下滑趨勢,我很高興地說,這種勢頭仍在繼續。與其詳細討論每個方面,不如我重點介紹幾個方面。在抵押貸款方面,我們過去五個季度的貸款餘額均有所增長,第三季淨貸款額為 31 億英鎊,高於 2021 年以來的任何一個季度。

  • We are achieving this in two ways. First, by expanding the product range with full utilization of the Kensington brand, increasing the mix of higher LTV lending to levels more in line with the market. Second, we are improving processes.

    我們透過兩種方式實現這一目標。首先,透過充分利用 Kensington 品牌擴大產品範圍,增加高 LTV 貸款的比例,使其更符合市場水準。其次,我們正在改善流程。

  • This year, we launched a new platform to more than 26,000 mortgage brokers, which has reduced application processing times from around 45 to around 15 minutes on average. This has significantly improved broker net promoter scores and have increased the capacity and efficiency of the mortgage business.

    今年,我們向超過 26,000 名抵押貸款經紀人推出了一個新平台,將申請處理時間從平均約 45 分鐘縮短到平均約 15 分鐘。這顯著提高了經紀人的淨推薦值,並提高了抵押貸款業務的容量和效率。

  • In the UK Corporate Bank, lending grew for the fourth consecutive quarter and by 17% year-on-year as we continue to increase market share. More than half of this growth came from new clients acquired since 2024, a key strategic focus for the business.

    英國企業銀行的貸款業務連續第四個季度成長,年增 17%,我們持續擴大市場佔有率。超過一半的成長來自 2024 年以來獲得的新客戶,這是該業務的關鍵策略重點。

  • And we continue to simplify the borrowing process for new and existing clients. In both cases, we have further to go, supporting our plan to deploy GBP30 billion of UK business growth RWAs by 2026.

    我們將繼續簡化新舊客戶的借貸流程。無論哪種情況,我們還有很長的路要走,以支持我們在 2026 年部署 300 億英鎊英國企業成長風險加權資產的計畫。

  • Turning to Barclays UK in more detail. You can see financial highlights on slide 13, but I will talk to slide 14. RoTE was 21.8% in the quarter, NII of GBP1.96 billion increased 18% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter with NIM up 13 basis points versus Q2.

    接下來我們更詳細地了解一下巴克萊英國銀行。您可以在第 13 頁看到財務亮點,但我將在第 14 頁進行講解。本季 RoTE 為 21.8%,NII 為 19.6 億英鎊,年增 18%,季增 6%,NIM 較第二季成長 13 個基點。

  • Around half of this increase came from the reinvestment of the structural hedge. Consistent with the guidance we gave you, product margin increased NII by GBP50 million in the quarter. A large part of this move was due to the phasing of historic swaps income, which, as we called out last quarter, suppressed product margin in half one.

    其中約一半的成長來自於結構性對沖的再投資。正如我們先前給出的預期,本季產品利潤率淨利息收入增加了 5,000 萬英鎊。這項舉措很大程度上是由於歷史掉期收入的分階段實現,正如我們上個季度所指出的,這抑制了上半年的產品利潤率。

  • We expect a broadly neutral product margin contribution in Q4 remain confident in our guidance for NII to exceed GBP7.6 billion in 2025. Non-NII of GBP292 million rose versus Q2, reflecting seasonally higher holiday spend and some one-off effects, and we would expect this to be lower in Q4.

    我們預計第四季度產品利潤貢獻將基本持平,但我們對 2025 年淨利息收入超過 76 億英鎊的預期仍然充滿信心。非淨利息收入為 2.92 億英鎊,較第二季度有所增長,反映了季節性假日支出增加和一些一次性因素,我們預計第四季度這一數字會下降。

  • Costs were stable versus Q2 but increased by 19% year-on-year, mainly reflecting Tesco Bank and structural cost actions in Q3. As we told you previously, we expect the cost-to-income ratio for Barclays UK to increase this year from 52% in 2024 before falling to circa 50% in 2026.

    成本與第二季相比保持穩定,但年增 19%,主要反映了第三季 Tesco Bank 和結構性成本措施的影響。正如我們之前告訴你們的那樣,我們預計巴克萊英國的成本收入比將從 2024 年的 52% 上升到今年,然後在 2026 年下降到 50% 左右。

  • Moving on to the Barclays UK balance sheet. Deposits remained broadly stable versus Q2, though competition for higher rate deposits continued in Q3 and is likely to persist. Lending grew for the fifth consecutive quarter and by 7% year-on-year, driven by mortgages.

    接下來來看巴克萊英國的資產負債表。與第二季相比,存款基本上保持穩定,但第三季對高利率存款的競爭仍在繼續,而且這種競爭可能會持續下去。貸款連續第五個季度增長,年增 7%,主要得益於抵押貸款的增長。

  • As a broader market trend, mortgage refinance activity remained elevated and we expect this to continue into the middle of next year as five year fixed rate mortgages written during the stamp duty holiday in 2020 and 2021 mature. Our retention experience remained strong in the quarter and the capability improvements that I called out earlier are supporting lending momentum.

    從更廣泛的市場趨勢來看,抵押貸款再融資活動仍然居高不下,我們預計這種情況將持續到明年年中,因為在 2020 年和 2021 年印花稅假期期間發放的五年期固定利率抵押貸款將陸續到期。本季我們的客戶留存率依然強勁,我之前提到的能力提升也為貸款業務的發展提供了支持。

  • Moving to the UK Corporate Bank on slide 17. Q3 rating was 22.8%. Income growth of 17%, exceeded cost growth of 5%, leading to an improved cost-to-income ratio of 45%. NII growth of 24% reflected stronger volumes.

    第 17 頁,我們將轉到英國企業銀行。第三季評分為 22.8%。營收成長 17%,超過成本成長 5%,從而使成本收入比提高到 45%。淨利息收入成長24%,反映出成交量走強。

  • Lending increased 17% year-on-year, supporting a 70 basis point increase in market share to 9.3%. Deposit market share of more than 20% also increased and balances grew by 5% year-on-year. Together, this growth supported a 3 percentage point increase in the loan-to-deposit ratio to 33%.

    貸款額年增 17%,市佔率因此成長 70 個基點,達到 9.3%。存款市佔率超過 20%,存款餘額較去年同期成長 5%。這一成長共同推動貸款存款比率上升了 3 個百分點,達到 33%。

  • Turning now to Private Bank and Wealth Management. Q3 RoTE was 26.4%, Client assets and liabilities grew 10% year-on-year and assets under management grew by 12%, supported by GBP0.7 billion of net new assets under management in the quarter.

    接下來我們來談談私人銀行和財富管理。第三季 RoTE 為 26.4%,客戶資產和負債年增 10%,管理資產成長 12%,這得益於本季新增 7 億英鎊淨管理資產。

  • Strong client engagement supported deposit growth versus last quarter and last year with a continued change in mix towards lower-margin products as clients rebalance assets. Income grew by 3% year-on-year, both fell modestly versus Q2 as a result of this mix effect, and we expect Q4 income to be broadly stable versus Q3.

    強勁的客戶參與度支撐了存款額較上季和去年同期有所成長,同時隨著客戶重新調整資產配置,存款組合持續向低利潤產品轉變。營收年增 3%,但由於這種組合效應,與第二季相比略有下降,我們預計第四季營收將與第三季基本保持穩定。

  • Costs increased by 10% year-on-year and the cost-to-income ratio rose to 73%, reflecting investment in the business. We expect to continue this investment to support growth and the high 60%s cost-to-income ratio in 2026.

    成本年增 10%,成本收入比上升至 73%,反映了對業務的投資。我們預計將繼續進行這項投資,以支持成長並維持 2026 年高達 60% 的成本收入比。

  • Turning now to the Investment Bank. Before getting into the details of the quarter, let me remind you that our focus in the IB is to drive consistently higher and more stable returns. Q3 RoTE of 10.1% increased 1.3% year-on-year despite the single name impairment charge and year-to-date RoTE was 12.9%.

    現在轉向投資銀行。在詳細介紹本季情況之前,我想提醒大家,投資銀行部門的重點是持續獲得更高、更穩定的回報。第三季淨資產收益率 (RoTE) 為 10.1%,年增 1.3%,儘管計入了單一名稱減損費用,但年初至今的淨資產收益率為 12.9%。

  • This performance reflects operational improvements in the business, which are evident in the quarter. stable income streams, financing in markets and International Corporate Bank in Investment Banking have accounted for nearly half of the IB income this quarter.

    這一業績反映了公司營運方面的改進,這在本季業績中顯而易見。穩定的收入來源、市場融資以及投資銀行領域的國際企業銀行業務在本季貢獻了近一半的投資銀行收入。

  • Income over average RWA has improved in every one of the last six quarters as a year-on-year matter and by 60 basis points in Q3. We also remain disciplined on costs with a sixth consecutive quarter of positive jaws. These improvements support the Investment Bank's income and returns in a wide range of environments.

    過去六個季度,平均 RWA 收入逐年成長,第三季度成長了 60 個基點。我們在成本控制方面也保持了嚴格的紀律,連續第六個季度實現了盈利。這些改進措施有助於投資銀行在各種環境下獲得收入和回報。

  • Turning now to look at income by business on slide 22. Using the US dollar figures, markets income was up 6% year-on-year, whilst investment banking fee income was up 11%. Let me highlight some areas of strength and some areas where we need to do better.

    現在請看第 22 頁投影片,了解各企業的收入狀況。以美元計價,市場收入較去年同期成長 6%,而投資銀行手續費收入較去年同期成長 11%。讓我重點介紹一下我們的優勢領域和需要改進的領域。

  • First, on strength. Financing income has now grown year-on-year for five consecutive quarters, including by 21% in Q3. In prime, we run joint bit globally and client balances have grown circa 30% year-on-year. In the International Corporate Bank, stable income growth has been supported by the rollout of the treasury coverage model now to 1,500 top clients versus 800 at the end of 2024.

    首先,從實力說起。融資收入已連續五個季度同比增長,其中第三季度增長了 21%。在主要業務方面,我們在全球範圍內開展聯合交易,客戶餘額年增約 30%。在國際企業銀行,穩定的收入成長得益於資金保障模式的推廣,目前已覆蓋 1,500 名頂級客戶,而到 2024 年底這一數字將降至 800 名。

  • This has also helped to drive circa 20% year-to-date growth in US deposits and strong growth in corporate FX and Risk Solutions revenues in the Investment Bank. And we have made good progress in M&A responses, a key focus area where our year-to-date market share increased by circa 140 basis points year-on-year.

    這也推動了美國存款今年迄今成長約 20%,以及投資銀行企業外匯和風險解決方案收入的強勁成長。我們在併購應對方面取得了良好進展,這是我們重點關注的領域,今年迄今為止,我們的市佔率年增了約 140 個基點。

  • In other areas, we need to do better. This includes corporate M&A, where we were less able to capture stronger activity in the quarter and in equity derivatives, where our performance was impacted by lower volatility. We also have more to do to sustainably increase market share in ECM, where we did not participate in some larger deals and others were pushed into Q4.

    在其他方面,我們需要做得更好。這包括企業併購,我們在本季未能捕捉到更強勁的交易活動;以及股票衍生品,我們的業績受到波動性降低的影響。我們還需要做更多的工作來永續提高 ECM 的市場份額,因為我們沒有參與一些較大的交易,而其他一些交易則被推遲到第四季。

  • Turning now to the US Consumer Bank. Before I get into the numbers, let me first cover operational performance of US CB. Starting with volumes. Net receivables grew by 10% year-on-year, of which around half related to GM coming on board at the end of August.

    現在來看美國消費者銀行。在深入探討具體數字之前,讓我先介紹一下美國央行的營運績效。首先從音量說起。淨應收帳款年增 10%,其中約一半與通用汽車在 8 月底加入有關。

  • As a reminder, we expect this acquisition to enhance rate from Q4. NII continued to progress towards the greater than 12% target by 2026, rising circa 110 basis points year-on-year to 11.5%, driven by three actions. First, repricing that we undertook in 2024 continue to support margins as customers repay and rebuild balances on new terms and conditions. This accounted for around half of the year-on-year increase in NIM in Q3.

    再次提醒,我們預計此次收購將從第四季開始提高利率。淨利息收入繼續朝著 2026 年超過 12% 的目標邁進,年增約 110 個基點至 11.5%,主要得益於三項措施。首先,我們在 2024 年進行的重新定價將繼續支撐利潤率,因為客戶將按照新的條款和條件償還和重建餘額。這約佔第三季淨利差年增的一半。

  • Second, we continue to optimize our lending book mix. Following the acquisition of GM cards balances at the end of August, retail partners account for 19% of ends-net receivables versus the circa 20% target by 2026, up from circa 15% at the start of the plan.

    其次,我們將繼續優化貸款組合。在 8 月底收購通用汽車信用卡餘額後,零售合作夥伴佔最終淨應收帳款的 19%,而到 2026 年的目標約為 20%,高於該計畫開始時的約 15%。

  • Third, we continue to see strong core retail deposit growth, though as expected, the increase in the wholesale funding to support GM temporarily reduced core deposit funding to 68% of the total. These improvements in the income profile were complemented by ongoing progress to improve efficiency, supporting a 43% cost income ratio in the quarter, on track for the mid-40%s target. All of these actions have contributed to the strong financial performance in the quarter, which you can see on the next slide.

    第三,我們繼續看到核心零售存款強勁增長,儘管正如預期的那樣,為支持通用汽車而增加的批發融資暫時將核心存款資金減少了至總額的 68%。收入狀況的改善與效率提升的持續進展相輔相成,使得本季成本收入比達到 43%,並有望實現 40% 左右的目標。所有這些舉措都促成了本季強勁的財務業績,您可以在下一張投影片中看到。

  • ROCE was 13.5%, up 2.6% year-on-year and 9.4% year-to-date. Using the US dollar figures, income was up 21% year-on-year and costs up 6%. Strong non-interest income accounted for around half of the income growth year-on-year, reflecting higher interchange and account fees.

    ROCE 為 13.5%,年成長 2.6%,年初至今成長 9.4%。以美元計算,營收年增 21%,成本年增 6%。強勁的非利息收入約佔年收入成長的一半,反映出更高的交換費和帳戶費。

  • NII, which grew by 14% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter was supported by stronger volumes and margins. The broad range of factors supporting higher returns in the US Consumer Bank reflect the operational progress that I outlined, underpinning our confidence in the sustainability of this progress.

    淨利息收入年增 14%,季增 12%,這得益於銷量和利潤率的提升。支持美國消費者銀行業務獲得更高回報的許多因素,反映了我概述的營運進展,也增強了我們對這項進展永續性的信心。

  • We ended the quarter with a CET1 capital ratio of 14.1%. This included circa 40 basis points of capital generation from profits. Given the consistency of our capital generation, a CET1 ratio of 14.1% and disciplined execution of our capital priorities, we have announced a GBP500 million share buyback. This brings forward our full year distribution plans rather than increasing total distributions for the year. The CET1 ratio pro forma for this buyback is 13.9%.

    本季末,我們的 CET1 資本適足率為 14.1%。這其中包括約 40 個基點的利潤資本產生。鑑於我們資本創造的穩定性、14.1% 的 CET1 比率以及對資本優先事項的嚴格執行,我們宣布了一項 5 億英鎊的股票回購計劃。這提前實施了我們的全年分配計劃,而不是增加全年的總分配額。本次回購的 CET1 比率預計為 13.9%。

  • RWAs increased GBP4.3 billion quarter-on-quarter, driven largely by FX and the acquisition of the GM portfolio. Excluding FX, Investment Bank RWAs remained broadly stable and accounted for 56% of the group RWAs.

    受匯率波動和收購通用汽車資產組合的影響,風險加權資產環比增加 43 億英鎊。剔除外匯交易後,投資銀行風險加權資產基本上維持穩定,佔集團風險加權資產的 56%。

  • As usual, a word on our overall liquidity on funding on slide 28, we have strong and diverse funding, including a 74% LDR and an NSFR of 135%, and we are highly liquid across currencies with an LCR of 175%. These measures reflect purposeful and prudent management of our balance sheet, delivering resilience and capacity to support customers in a range of economic environments. TNAV per share increased 8p in the quarter and 41p year-on-year to [GBP3.92].

    照例,關於第 28 頁幻燈片中提到的整體流動性和融資情況,我們擁有強大且多元化的融資管道,包括 74% 的貸款償還率 (LDR) 和 135% 的淨穩定資金比率 (NSFR),並且我們的跨貨幣流動性非常高,流動性覆蓋率 (LCR) 為 175%。這些措施體現了我們對資產負債表的審慎管理,增強了我們在各種經濟環境下為客戶提供支援的韌性和能力。本季每股總資產價值成長8便士,年增41便士。[3.92 英鎊]。

  • Attributable profit added 10p per share during Q3 and partially offset by dividends paid in the quarter and movements in the cash flow hedge reserve. The cash flow hedge reserve is expected to unwind by the end of 2026, adding to TNAV per share as it has in recent quarters. The more significant effect of earnings growth and buybacks give us confidence that TNAV will continue to grow consistently as it has done for the last nine consecutive quarters.

    第三季歸屬於股東的利潤每股增加 10 便士,但部分被本季支付的股利和現金流避險儲備的變動所抵銷。預計現金流對沖儲備將於 2026 年底到期,這將像最近幾季一樣增加每股總資產價值。獲利成長和股票回購的顯著影響讓我們相信,TNAV 將繼續像過去連續九個季度那樣持續成長。

  • So to summarize, we are pleased with the group's strong performance in Q3. This positions us well to deliver on all our 2025 guidance and 2026 target and provides a strong foundation to build from as we look to update the market on the second leg of our transformation journey.

    總而言之,我們對集團在第三季的強勁表現感到滿意。這使我們能夠更好地實現 2025 年的所有指導方針和 2026 年的目標,並為我們向市場更新轉型之旅的第二階段奠定了堅實的基礎。

  • Over to you, Venkat, for concluding remarks.

    接下來請Venkat作總結發言。

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • We are 7 quarters into our 12-quarter plan and remain on track to deliver our goals. We are working hard to deliver sustainable operational and financial improvement across our businesses. And this, in turn, will generate higher group returns and drive shareholder distributions.

    我們的12個季度計畫已經完成了7個季度,我們仍然有望實現我們的目標。我們正努力在各個業務領域實現可持續的營運和財務改善。而這又會為集團帶來更高的回報,並推動股東分紅。

  • I will now open to questions and answers. As ever, please limit yourself to two questions per person so we can get around as many of you as possible and please also introduce yourself as you ask your questions.

    現在我將開放問答環節。與以往一樣,請每人提問不超過兩個問題,以便我們盡可能照顧大家。提問時也請做個自我介紹。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Guy Stebbings, BNP Paribas.

    (操作員說明)Guy Stebbings,法國巴黎銀行。

  • Guy Stebbings - Analyst

    Guy Stebbings - Analyst

  • Hi, morning, Venkat. Morning, Anna. Thanks for taking the questions. The first one is on the US Consumer top line. Clearly, very strong up sort of 20% year-over-year, both non-interest income and the NIM moving up to 11.5%.

    你好,早安,文卡特。早安,安娜。謝謝您回答問題。第一項是美國消費者所得總額。顯然,年成長非常強勁,約為 20%,非利息收入和淨利差均上升至 11.5%。

  • Just help us to understand if there's anything particularly lumpy in there. So I guess, first is to confirm that we should be thinking about growth of that 11.5% NIM base given the sort of ongoing lending mix actions you talked to and growth in retail deposit base.

    請幫我們看看裡面有沒有特別結塊的東西。所以我想,首先要確認的是,鑑於您提到的持續貸款組合措施和零售存款基礎的增長,我們是否應該考慮將 11.5% 的淨利差基礎提高。

  • And then within that GBP250 million of non-interest income in Q3, anything lumpy in there you would point to temper us away from annualizing north of GBP800 million before thinking about things like gains on sales of portfolios next year.

    然後,在第三季 2.5 億英鎊的非利息收入中,任何異常波動都會讓我們在考慮明年出售投資組合的收益等因素之前,避免將年化收益提高到 8 億英鎊以上。

  • And then the second question was just on UK mortgages. From a volume perspective, very strong both net and gross lending, I think nearly GBP10 billion in gross lending is certainly above typical run rate. I'm just interested if that's the level you think you will continue to write out.

    第二個問題是關於英國的抵押貸款。從規模上看,淨貸款和總貸款都非常強勁,我認為近 100 億英鎊的總貸款額肯定高於正常水平。我只是想知道,你覺得你以後會一直保持這樣的寫作水準嗎?

  • And then from a sort of competitive perspective, what you're seeing in the market? I know the actions you're taking and the Kensington offers quite a bit of installation, but are you seeing any competitive pressures on new lending spreads when you look at like-for-like lending? Thank you.

    那麼從競爭的角度來看,您在市場上看到了什麼?我知道你們正在採取的措施,肯辛頓也提供了相當多的安裝服務,但是,在進行同類貸款時,你們是否看到新貸款利差面臨任何競爭壓力?謝謝。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Okay. Thanks, Guy. I'll take both of those, and thanks for opening the call for us. And just on the US Consumer top line, think what you're seeing coming together now is a real combination of all of the operational actions that we've been undertaking over the last few quarters.

    好的。謝謝你,蓋伊。這兩個我都要,謝謝你們給我們發出邀請。就美國消費者營收而言,您現在看到的成果,是我們過去幾季以來採取的所有營運措施的真正結合。

  • And you can see that on a new slide on slide 24. Because it's drawn from those operational actions, we do have confidence in its sustainability, really what's driving the NIM is the things that we've talked about before.

    您可以在第 24 張投影片上看到這一點。因為它源自於這些營運行動,所以我們對其永續性充滿信心,真正推動 NIM 發展的是我們之前討論過的事情。

  • So it's the repricing, which remember, it takes some time to work its way through into the NIM because customers need to draw down on those new terms and conditions. It's also the increase in the level of retail deposits and retail deposits are about 50 to 60 basis points cheaper than the other sources of funding we've had previously.

    所以,這是重新定價,請記住,這需要一些時間才能反映到淨利差中,因為客戶需要適應這些新的條款和條件。零售存款水準也有所提高,而零售存款比我們以前擁有的其他融資來源便宜約 50 至 60 個基點。

  • And then thirdly, there is this increasing proportion of retail balances, which are higher NIM. So I expect over the next couple of quarters, Q4 and Q1 to be broadly at the level of NIM that we're currently running at around 11.5%.

    第三,零售餘額的比例也不斷增加,而這些餘額的淨利差較高。所以我預計在接下來的幾個季度,第四季和第一季的淨利差將大致維持在我們目前的水平,約為 11.5%。

  • I'm not going to guide you to Q2 and beyond because obviously, once we exit the AA portfolio, that NIM is going to jump up again. So I will guide you to that a little nearer the time. In terms of non-interest income, there's a couple of things going on in there.

    我不會向你們預測第二季及以後的情況,因為很明顯,一旦我們退出AA投資組合,淨利差就會再次大幅上升。所以,到時候我會再指導你。就非利息收入而言,這裡面涉及兩方面因素。

  • The first is obviously the increase in volume that we're seeing, not just from GM, but also the organic growth in this business. So if you go back to the equivalent quarter just before the start of the plan, we've grown 13% since then.

    首先,我們看到的銷售成長顯而易見,這不僅來自通用汽車,也來自該產業的自然成長。因此,如果回顧到該計劃開始之前的相應季度,我們自那時以來已經增長了 13%。

  • So you're seeing that coming through in non-NII, and you're also seeing some improvement in partner sharing agreements just reflected in that number. So we do have confidence in the momentum in the income line. I'd just remind you that this is a seasonal business and you get that seasonality in NII because of balances, but you also get it in noninterest income. But yeah, we're pleased with that progress.

    所以,在非NII領域,這種趨勢有所體現;同時,合作夥伴共享協議也出現了一些改善,這也反映在這個數字上。因此,我們對收入成長動能充滿信心。我只想提醒您,這是一個季節性行業,淨利息收入會因餘額而呈現季節性波動,非利息收入也會受到季節性影響。是的,我們對這項進展感到滿意。

  • In UK mortgages, the UK mortgage market is robust, and we see that across the piece. We see it in house purchase. First-time buyers are up 11% year-on-year. We're seeing strong levels of refinancing and the margins in Barclays, if you like, in the more vanilla book have been broadly stable over the last few quarters.

    英國抵押貸款市場整體表現強勁。我們在房屋買賣中就能看到這一點。首次購屋者數量較去年同期成長 11%。我們看到再融資水準強勁,而且巴克萊銀行(如果你願意這麼稱呼的話)在較為普通的貸款業務中的利潤率在過去幾個季度基本上保持穩定。

  • Obviously, we're seeing a margin benefit coming through from Kensington, which is 3 to 4 times higher. And really, what you're seeing here is our capabilities reaching the marketplace. And by that, what I mean is both the product breadth because we know what Kensington in play, but also the operational capabilities because we launched a new broker platform, which is working extremely well.

    顯然,肯辛頓帶來了利潤優勢,其利潤率高出 3 到 4 倍。實際上,你們現在看到的正是我們的能力走向市場。我的意思是,這既包括產品廣度,因為我們知道 Kensington 的產品組合,也包括營運能力,因為我們推出了一個新的經紀平台,而且運作得非常好。

  • The only thing I'd call out for you is we're about to enter a period market-wide, it's not a Barclays thing, where we've got coming to maturity, the five year business that was written during the stamp duty holiday in FY20 and FY21. That's at relatively wide margins.

    我唯一要提醒大家的是,我們即將進入一個整個市場都面臨的時期,這與巴克萊銀行無關,那就是在2020財年和2021財年印花稅假期期間簽訂的五年期合約即將到期。這之間的差距相對較大。

  • So you're going to see a little bit of sort of churn compression, if you like, come through on that. But of course, we captured that in the guidance that we've already given you around NII progression for the UK.

    所以你會看到一些客戶流失率的下降,或者說,會在這方面有所體現。當然,我們已經在之前向你們提供的關於英國 NII 進展的指導中涵蓋了這一點。

  • Thank you. Next question, please.

    謝謝。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jason Napier, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的傑森‧納皮爾。

  • Jason Napier - Analyst

    Jason Napier - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one, just looking at competitive conditions in US investment banking. We've had some of the peers talk about potentially very significant levels of additional capital that's available for deployment following some of the deregulation and stress test changes.

    早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。首先,我們來看看美國投資銀行業競爭狀況。一些同行談到,隨著一些放鬆管制和壓力測試的變化,可能會有非常可觀的額外資金可供部署。

  • And prime appears to be one of the places that they may be looking to allocate additional capacity. So given it's a focus for the bank, could you just talk about whether you think you have additional capital to deploy, given the changes in things like stress tests and what you're seeing on product margins and that sort of thing.

    而 Prime 似乎是他們可能考慮分配額外產能的領域之一。鑑於這是銀行的重點,您能否談談,考慮到壓力測試的變化以及您在產品利潤率等方面看到的情況,您是否認為您有額外的資本可以部署?

  • And then secondly, on the non-bank financial intermediary space. Thank you for the additional disclosures as are really welcome, and it's good to see the impairment charge at a group level below consensus today. Venkat, I wonder whether you could talk a little bit about risks in that industry, how mature the exposures are, whether there are any vintages we should be bothered about we could observe that the cases we've seen so far all involve fraud, but we have seen very strong growth in the industry, it large.

    其次,是關於非銀行金融中介領域。感謝您提供的補充信息,這些信息非常寶貴。很高興看到集團層級的減損費用低於市場普遍預期。Venkat,我想請你談談這個行業的風險,風險敞口有多成熟,是否有任何年份的股票需要我們關注,我們可以觀察到,到目前為止我們看到的案例都涉及欺詐,但我們看到這個行業增長非常強勁,規模很大。

  • And so I wonder what your risk management hat on, whether you could just talk about whether this is an industry that has yet to grind into fully mature loss run rate and how you think about that sort of thing. Thank you.

    所以我想知道您作為風險管理者會怎麼看待這個問題,您能否談談這個行業是否還沒有完全成熟,損失率是否已經達到飽和,以及您是如何看待這類問題的。謝謝。

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Right, thank you, Jason, for questions. On the first one on capital regulation or disparity -- potential disparity in capital regulation between Europe, the UK and the US. Look, it is, I think, an important factor in the industry. we haven't seen ultimately what will be the changes in the US and how much the UK, which is the important jurisdiction for us as a home regulator itself makes itself consistent or not.

    好的,謝謝傑森提問。第一個問題是關於資本監管或差異——歐洲、英國和美國之間資本監管可能存在的差異。我認為,這確實是業界內的重要因素。我們最終還看不到美國會發生哪些變化,也看不到英國——對我們作為國內監管機構而言,英國本身就是一個重要的司法管轄區——會在多大程度上保持一致性。

  • I think what I would point out on things like prime is we've got a good and strong market share. We work with a few important and big clients carefully. It is as much a balance sheet business as it is a capital business.

    我認為我想指出的是,像Prime這樣的服務,我們擁有良好且強大的市場份額。我們與少數幾個重要的大客戶謹慎合作。它既是一項資產負債表業務,也是一項資本業務。

  • And so we think we've got the wherewithal and given our current market position given our product capability, given our client penetration, we've got the wherewithal to compete effectively and continue to compete effectively.

    因此,我們認為我們具備必要的資源,鑑於我們目前的市場地位、產品能力和客戶滲透率,我們有能力有效地參與競爭,並繼續保持有效的競爭。

  • Of course, it's all subject to capital rules. We'll have to see where they are but I'm pretty confident in the strength of that business and how we will adapt overall in the investment bank because ultimately, it's about that.

    當然,這一切都須遵守資本規則。我們得看看他們的情況,但我對這項業務的實力以及我們在投資銀行整體上的適應能力相當有信心,因為歸根結底,一切都取決於此。

  • Coming back to private credit and NBFI, so here's what I will say. First of all, I view credit as credit as credit, right? There's a distinction about where it's originated from and private credit, generally, we at least think of that as the kind of credit that's originated outside of banks and outside of the public debt market.

    回到私人信貸和非銀行金融機構的話題,以下是我要說的。首先,我認為信用就是信用,對吧?私人信貸和公共信貸在來源方面是有區別的,一般來說,我們至少認為私人信貸是指在銀行和公共債務市場之外產生的信貸。

  • But I think of lending as lending. And through the cycle, you've got to be careful about all the aspects of lending, client selection, sector concentrations, name concentrations, terms and continuous monitoring, qualifying them initially and monitoring it over life over the time period. So that's important and that you've got to do through the period.

    但我認為借貸就是藉貸。在整個週期中,你必須謹慎對待貸款的各個方面,包括客戶選擇、行業集中度、名稱集中度、條款和持續監控,在最初對其進行資格審查,並在整個生命週期內對其進行監控。所以這很重要,而且你必須在整個過程中做到這一點。

  • Look, I'm obviously disappointed that we had Tricolor. The fact that it was for is no excuse. But we've looked at what lessons we can learn from that and applied it across our portfolio, and I'll talk a little about that. We did not have first brands. We were approached a couple of times, and we said no.

    說實話,我對我們隊上有三色旗感到很失望。這件事的起因並不能成為藉口。但我們已經研究了我們可以從中學到哪些經驗教訓,並將其應用到我們的投資組合中,接下來我將簡要地談談這一點。我們當時沒有自己的品牌。我們曾經被邀請過幾次,我們都拒絕了。

  • And we said no because our credit officers felt that there was not enough data information to support the financial projections they make. That's how credit selection is supposed to work. Now at this point in time, and you talk a little about vintages, less to me changes in general economic conditions that put stress and on credit performance. So do companies find themselves stretched. Now fraud can be isolated bad actors or it could be economic conditions that increase the propensity towards bad acting, if you like.

    我們拒絕了,因為我們的信貸員認為沒有足夠的數據資訊來支持他們所做的財務預測。信用篩選機製本應如此運作。現在,你稍微談到了年份,對我來說,影響信貸表現的總體經濟狀況變化較少。因此,各公司都發現自己捉襟見肘。現在,詐欺行為可能是個別不良行為者的所作所為,也可能是經濟環境加劇了不良行為的傾向。

  • And then if you worry about that, you've got to consider very carefully the independence and strength of the financial controls employed within the companies. As you can imagine, we consider all of these things over time.

    如果你擔心這一點,你必須非常仔細地考慮公司內部財務控制的獨立性和有效性。正如您所想,我們會隨著時間的推移考慮所有這些因素。

  • But I think what these two instances show is that we will likely be monitoring our portfolios more carefully, particularly understanding the impact of changed economic conditions on companies and looking closely at the strength and independence of financial controls. Hope that answers your question. Thanks.

    但我認為這兩個例子表明,我們可能會更仔細地監控我們的投資組合,特別是了解經濟狀況變化對公司的影響,並密切關注財務控制的力度和獨立性。希望這能解答你的疑問。謝謝。

  • Jason Napier - Analyst

    Jason Napier - Analyst

  • Thanks very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Thank you. Next question, please.

    謝謝。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Cant, Autonomous.

    克里斯·坎特,自主。

  • Chris Cant - Analyst

    Chris Cant - Analyst

  • Morning, thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to follow up on the US consumer business and then another one around sort of risks that investors are worrying about of late. So on US consumer, we've had this target for a while for the business to get to a greater than 12% RoTE for next year.

    早上好,謝謝您回答我的問題。我只是想跟進美國消費者業務的情況,然後再談談投資者最近擔心的一些風險。因此,對於美國消費者,我們已經設定了目標,希望明年的業務報酬率能達到 12% 以上。

  • I appreciate that quite a few things have changed over the last 18 months, 2 years since you gave that guidance in terms of the AA book, now expecting to move off and so on. Given where we've got to with 3Q in terms of the returns, could you give us a bit more color as to what return you expect that segment to be delivering in '26? Obviously, greater than 12% is open-ended. That would be helpful, I think, to sort of realign consensus expectations on that division a little bit.

    我知道過去 18 個月到 2 年裡發生了很多變化,自從您在 AA 書籍方面給出指導以來,現在我打算離開等等。鑑於第三季目前的收益情況,您能否更詳細地說明一下您預計該業務板塊在 2026 年的收益情況?顯然,大於 12% 是一個開放性的概念。我認為,這樣做有助於稍微調整人們對這一分歧的共識預期。

  • And then the other topic I wanted to throw out there beyond private credit was stable coins. There's been some nervousness over the summer months from some investors around what threat stable coin issuance creates for the banking system, I guess, more so on the other side of the pond, given that's where -- most of these innovations are being deployed first. So I just wanted to invite you to comment Venkat in terms of how you think that potentially shapes up for the business longer term? Thank you.

    除了私人信貸之外,我還想談穩定幣。在過去的幾個月裡,一些投資者對穩定幣發行給銀行系統帶來的威脅感到有些緊張,我想,尤其是在大西洋彼岸,因為大多數此類創新都首先在那裡部署。所以我想請Venkat談談你的看法,你認為這可能會對公司的長期發展產生怎樣的影響?謝謝。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Thanks, Chris. I'll start on US Consumer and then I'll hand to Venkat. In terms of US Consumer, it's exactly where we expected it would be, and we continue to target that RoTE of greater than 12%. Clearly, 2026 statutory rate will be impacted by the gain on sale of AA.

    謝謝你,克里斯。我先從美國消費者開始,然後交給 Venkat。就美國消費者而言,情況正如我們預期的那樣,我們將繼續努力實現高於 12% 的資本回報率。顯然,2026 年的法定稅率將受到出售 AA 所得收益的影響。

  • It's a bit too early to guide you on that. Chris, we will do near over time. But think on an underlying basis that we are aiming to achieve the kind of progress that we set out for you in the targets that we set.

    現在就這個問題給你建議還太早。克里斯,我們會慢慢來的。但從根本上來說,我們的目標是實現我們為你們設定的目標所期望的那種進步。

  • Beyond '26, we remain committed to pushing this business further and you can see that with the momentum that's coming through now, and we'd expect to continue around income, around operational costs also. So we've got many levers that we can continue to pull. And we really think this should be a mid-teens business. Venkat?

    2026 年後,我們將繼續致力於推動這項業務的發展,從目前的勢頭可以看出這一點,我們預計在收入和營運成本方面也將繼續保持這種勢頭。所以我們還有很多可以繼續施展的手段。我們真心認為這應該是一年收入十幾萬美元的企業。文卡特?

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Yes. Look, stable coin, it's a broad and fascinating subject, Chris. So thanks for the question. I'll try to confine my answer though. So there are a couple of dimensions of it. One is what does it do to deposits? Second is, how much does it represent an alternative form of payment. And third is, is it an alternative form of payment on an alternative network.

    是的。克里斯,穩定幣是一個既廣泛又引人入勝的話題。謝謝你的提問。我會盡量言簡意賅地回答。所以它包含多個維度。一是它會對存款產生什麼影響?其次,它在多大程度上可以作為一種替代支付方式?第三,它是否是替代網路上的替代支付方式?

  • I think the deposit question for the big banks is something which the banks will have to consider along with our regulators. Because the real question is, is this something that sits outside the deposit system or it brought within the deposit system. And it's a very critical question to answer because it relates to the transmission of monetary policy.

    我認為,對於大型銀行而言,存款問題是銀行本身以及監管機構都必須考慮的問題。因為真正的問題是,這是存款體系之外的東西,還是被納入存款體系的東西。這是一個非常關鍵的問題,因為它關係到貨幣政策的傳導。

  • The second thing is as a store of value, and the form of deposit that it takes. The initial use cases seem to be more promising outside of the developing countries in the developed -- in developing countries. So where people who might use it as a dollar substitute for their local currency. Less clear case within, say, the US or the UK or even Europe.

    第二點是作為價值儲存手段,以及它所採取的存款形式。初步應用案例在已開發國家以外的發展中國家似乎更有前景——在開發中國家。所以有些人可能會用它作為美元的替代品來代替本國貨幣。例如在美國、英國甚至歐洲,情況就不太明朗了。

  • The third thing is even if you accepted the first two, does there then a separate network upon which this can travel. I can tell you what Barclays' approach is we think any of these are possibilities, it's a very promising and broad-reaching technology, where ultimately work, I don't know.

    第三點是,即使你接受了前兩點,是否存在一個獨立的網路可以讓這些訊息傳播?我可以告訴你巴克萊銀行的做法,我們認為這些都有可能,這是一項非常有前途且應用廣泛的技術,但最終會如何發展,我不知道。

  • But we've got to investigate it and be part of it. So you might have seen announcements that we are part of consortiums with other banks on Scotia with other banks. And obviously, no one bank can act alone. We are studying the technology. And I think it will take some time to know clearly and with some confidence what exactly the use cases could be and how valuable they are. But it's important enough that we've got to study it carefully.

    但我們必須調查此事,並參與其中。所以您可能已經看到一些公告,說我們與其他銀行組成了財團,例如豐業銀行。顯然,任何一家銀行都無法單獨採取行動。我們正在研究這項技術。我認為還需要一些時間才能清楚、有信心地了解這些用例究竟是什麼,以及它們的價值有多大。但這非常重要,我們必須認真研究它。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Thank you very much, Chris. Can we have the next question, please?

    非常感謝你,克里斯。請問下一個問題可以嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rob Noble, Deutsche Bank.

    羅布‧諾布爾,德意志銀行。

  • Robert Noble - Analyst

    Robert Noble - Analyst

  • Morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just on private credit gain. Could you help us with the economics of how that business works? So what spread are you making on the business the risk weights. I presume it's been growing very quickly. Are you worried that if the Bank of England, I mean, regardless of how confident a low risk your particular book is.

    早晨。謝謝您回答我的問題。僅靠私人信貸收益。能幫我們分析一下這家企業的經濟運作模式嗎?那麼,您在業務風險權重方面賺取了多少利潤?我估計它生長得非常快。你是否擔心,如果英格蘭銀行…我的意思是,無論你對自己的投資組合的風險有多大信心,它都會…

  • Are you worried that if the Bank is looking into where it's going to deter you from further growth in that area? And then in Kensington in the UK, I see you've doubled the book because that makes it around GBP4 billion now, if I'm not mistaken. Do you have any desire to go into any other areas of specialized lending in the UK? Thanks.

    您是否擔心銀行的調查會阻礙您在該領域的進一步發展?然後,在英國肯辛頓,我看到你們把書價翻了一番,因為如果我沒記錯的話,現在大約是 40 億英鎊了。您是否有興趣涉足英國其他專業貸款領域?謝謝。

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Right. Let me take the first one, Rob, and then Anna will cover Kensington. So what I would say about -- we have a disclosure slide, slide 43 in our pack on private credit. What I would say is that the exposure is growing in a sort of relatively stable manner, right, and has been for us for a while. I'm not going to get into RWAs and spreads.

    正確的。羅布,我先負責第一個,然後安娜負責肯辛頓。所以我想說的是——我們有一張披露幻燈片,在我們的資料包中,第 43 張幻燈片是關於私人信貸的。我想說的是,這種曝光度正以一種相對穩定的方式增長,對吧,而且對我們來說已經持續了一段時間了。我不想深入討論風險加權資產和價差策略。

  • I think we've been very clear about the strong credit controls we put on this and the type of people we work with. To reiterate, we work with the most experienced, well-regarded top-notch top players in the industry. We provide financing generally against both pools of loans of credits, which they originate. On a secured basis, those portfolios are diversified.

    我認為我們已經非常明確地說明了我們對此採取的嚴格信貸控制措施以及我們合作的人員類型。再次強調,我們與業界經驗最豐富、最受尊敬的頂尖人才合作。我們通常以他們發起的貸款和信貸組合為抵押提供融資。在安全保障下,這些投資組合實現了多元化。

  • We have limits on borrower concentration and sector concentrations were skewed towards large-cap corporates. We require lower LTVs so that we can get better first loss protection. And we've got some statistics there, and we've retained revaluation rates, which means mark-to-market rights on the portfolio and enforce the maintenance of LTVs and collateral additions require our individual approval.

    我們對借款人集中度有限制,且產業集中度偏向大型企業。我們需要較低的貸款價值比,以便獲得更好的首損保障。我們有一些統計數據,我們保留了重估率,這意味著對投資組合進行市值計價的權利,並且強制執行貸款價值比的維持,抵押品的增加需要我們單獨批准。

  • So it's a risk management process and practice. I think it's important that regulators examine all aspects of the financial system. We welcome the review of the Bank of England -- by the Bank of England. And we think, as I said, that we've got strong risk management practices. So we're comfortable and confident in that.

    所以,這是一種風險管理流程和實務。我認為監管機構審查金融體系的各個方面非常重要。我們歡迎英格蘭銀行對自身進行審查。正如我所說,我們認為我們擁有強有力的風險管理措施。所以我們對此感到放心和自信。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Thanks, Venkat. Rob, on your question on Kensington, the balances are around GBP4 billion in Kensington. Just to sort of highlight how we think about this business, I mean, it's no difference actually in risk management terms to the way Venkat just described private credit or indeed any kind of credit.

    謝謝你,文卡特。羅布,關於你問的肯辛頓的問題,肯辛頓的存款餘額約為 40 億英鎊。為了強調我們對這項業務的看法,我的意思是,從風險管理的角度來看,它實際上與 Venkat 剛才描述的私人信貸或任何類型的信貸並無不同。

  • So we're very focused on the choice of customers. So Kensington has 30 years of experience of really focused client and product level and affordability assessment. And then once the balances are on our balance sheet, then we do manage them actively, and that was one of the capabilities that we drew from Kensington.

    所以我們非常重視客戶的選擇。因此,肯辛頓擁有 30 年專注於客戶、產品層面和價格承受能力評估的經驗。一旦資產負債表上有了這些餘額,我們就會積極地管理它們,這是我們從肯辛頓汲取的能力之一。

  • So you might have noticed that in Q3, we actually did a stage 3 securitization from there. So it is quite a sophisticated risk capability, and it is contributing not only to breadth of mortgage offering, but also to the blended margin. But thank you for the question. Next question, please.

    所以您可能已經注意到,在第三季度,我們實際上從那裡開始了第三階段的證券化。因此,這是一種相當複雜的風險控制能力,它不僅有助於擴大抵押貸款產品的供應範圍,而且有助於提高綜合利潤率。不過,謝謝你的提問。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nicolas Payen, Kepler Cheuvreux.

    尼古拉斯‧佩恩,開普勒‧舍弗勒。

  • Nicolas Payen - Analyst

    Nicolas Payen - Analyst

  • Yes, morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have two, please. The first one would be on your UK deployment. I think you have deployed circa GBP1 billion of RWA during Q3. And it seems to me that the run rate was actually closer to GBP2 billion.

    是的,早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。我要兩份。第一個問題是關於你在英國的部署。我認為你們在第三季投入了約 10 億英鎊的風險加權資產。在我看來,實際的運行速度應該接近 20 億英鎊。

  • So especially in the context where you had a good lending performance in Q3. So I just wanted to discuss how we should think about it and whether or not we should have a catch-up in the deployment a bit later?

    尤其是在第三季貸款業績表現良好的背景下。所以我想討論我們應該如何考慮這個問題,以及我們是否應該稍晚進行部署追趕?

  • And then the second one is just a follow-up on the mortgage headwinds coming from the maturity the mortgage rent during COVID. So what kind of headwinds are you expecting for and for how long should we expect this? Thank you very much.

    第二點是對新冠疫情期間抵押貸款到期所帶來的抵押貸款不利因素的後續分析。那麼,您預計會遇到什麼樣的不利因素呢?這種情況會持續多久?非常感謝。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Okay, thank you very much. So we've got a GBP30 billion RWA target. We deployed GBP18 billion so far, GBP11 billion of that is organic. It's interesting because when we set out these targets, the RWA growth in the UK is really a shorthand for our desire to lend into the UK.

    好的,非常感謝。所以我們的目標是300億英鎊的風險加權資產。我們迄今已投入180億英鎊,其中110億英鎊為自然成長。有趣的是,當我們設定這些目標時,英國的 RWA 成長其實是我們向英國放款願望的簡寫。

  • And actually, what you find is that in some quarters, RWAs grow faster than lending, and that's what we saw earlier in the year. And actually, in this quarter, lending grew faster than RWAs. It's actually the lending that we're really focused on internally.

    事實上,你會發現,在某些領域,風險加權資產的成長速度超過了貸款成長速度,而這正是我們在今年稍早看到的。事實上,本季貸款增速超過了風險加權資產增速。實際上,我們公司內部真正關注的是貸款業務。

  • It's a lending, not the RWAs that we generate income from and we're really pleased with the progress. It's our highest quarter of net lending in mortgages since 2021. And we've now got four consecutive quarters of lending in our corporate book. So we're happy -- we're happy with the progress. Nothing really to call out. It's just timing differences between RWAs and loans.

    這是貸款業務,而不是我們產生收入的RWA(風險加權資產),我們對目前的進展非常滿意。這是自 2021 年以來抵押貸款淨貸款額最高的季度。目前,我們的企業貸款業務已連續四個季度成長。所以我們很高興——我們對目前的進展感到滿意。沒什麼特別需要指出的。這只是風險加權資產和貸款之間的時間差異。

  • In terms of mortgage headwinds, look, our churn effects on our book have been broadly stable, neutral for some time. All we're calling out here is there will be a period of pressure actually, overall, we expect the product margin impact on the UK as a whole, taking all products into account will be broadly neutral in -- so expect that number to be broadly zero in the NIM walk.

    就抵押貸款的不利因素而言,你看,一段時間以來,我們帳簿的周轉率變化對我們的客戶群的影響總體上是穩定的,處於中性水平。我們在這裡要指出的是,實際上會有一段時間的壓力,總體而言,我們預計產品利潤率對英國整體的影響,考慮到所有產品,將大致保持中性——因此預計淨利潤率變化將大致為零。

  • But it's really towards the end of '20 and the first quarter of 2021, there was a stamp duty holiday in the UK and a lot of business was written that's going to mature. It will compress margins a little as that business flips over onto front book.

    但實際上,在 2020 年底和 2021 年第一季度,英國實行了印花稅假期,許多業務都已簽訂,這些業務將會成熟。隨著該業務轉為主要業務,利潤率會略微下降。

  • I'm not going to call out a particular spread that will be different by lender and different byproducts. But it's just something for you to consider. And as I say, we've already taken it into account in the guidance that we've given you. But thank you for the questions. Next question, please.

    我不會具體指出某個利差,因為不同貸款機構和不同衍生產品的利差都會有所不同。但這只是供你參考。正如我所說,我們在給你們的指導下已經考慮到了這一點。不過,謝謝你的提問。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jonathan Pierce, Jefferies.

    喬納森·皮爾斯,傑富瑞集團。

  • Jonathan Pierce - Analyst

    Jonathan Pierce - Analyst

  • Hello there. I've got two questions actually. The first is on what we're going to get full year with regard to these 2027, '28 targets and not after the numbers, of course, unless you want to give them to us. But the sort of detail, I'm assuming it's probably not another 100 slide presentation like we got last February, but I'm assuming we will get RET targets for '28 distribution amounts and mix, maybe even pretty tier 1 targets, these sorts of things. So just to give us an idea of what we should be expecting qualitatively ahead of February would be helpful.

    你好呀。我其實有兩個問題。首先,我們想知道的是,就 2027 年和 2028 年的目標而言,我們全年能得到什麼,當然,我們關心的不是具體的數字,除非你們願意告訴我們。但就細節而言,我估計可能不會像去年二月那樣再來一個 100 頁的演示文稿,但我估計我們會得到 2028 年分配金額和組合的 RET 目標,甚至可能是相當不錯的 1 級目標,諸如此類的事情。所以,如果能提前給我們一些關於二月可能出現的情況的定性估計,那就很有幫助了。

  • Secondly, maybe if I try and preempt one little piece of that, though, which is on the structural hedge. The weighted average life has moved out now to 3.5 years. When we think about the size of maturities coming through in '27 and '28. Should we be thinking, therefore, in the year, we've been getting recently to GBP35 billion a year? Or will it hold up at GBP50 billion for a little longer? And maybe I can invite you to give us the maturity yield in 2028 itself, if that's possible. Thank you.

    其次,也許我可以嘗試預先阻止其中的一小部分,那就是結構性對沖。加權平均壽命目前已延長至 3.5 年。當我們考慮 2027 年和 2028 年到期的債務規模。因此,我們是否應該考慮,近年來我們每年的收入已經達到了 350 億英鎊?或者,500億英鎊的匯率還能維持一段時間嗎?如果可以的話,或許我可以邀請您提供 2028 年的到期收益率。謝謝。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Okay, thank you, Jonathan. I will take both of those. So we have said that we will give you updated targets in FY25. So in February, we've also said that Venkat and I will do that together. So you should hopefully read from that, that it won't be quite such a long update as it was last time.

    好的,謝謝你,喬納森。這兩個我都要。所以我們說過,我們會在2025財年給出更新後的目標。所以二月我們也說過,我和 Venkat 會一起做這件事。所以你應該可以從中看出,這次的更新不會像上次那麼長了。

  • But we will be focused on '26, '27, '28. So what should you expect? We were really clear at the time that greater than 12% rate was not an endpoint, and that was true of every target that we gave you. That remains true.

    但我們將重點放在 2026 年、2027 年和 2028 年。那麼,您該期待些什麼呢?當時我們非常明確地表示,超過 12% 的比率並不是終點,我們給你們的每一個目標都是如此。這一點依然如此。

  • So you should expect us to come back with details on how we expect to push RET rates higher not just as a group, but specifically in some business areas also. And there's a pattern of delivery that you should be seeing that you should continue to expect, which is higher levels of revenue, but particularly focused on the stability and predictability of that revenue.

    所以,你們應該期待我們會帶來更多細節,說明我們計劃如何提高RET利率,不僅是作為一個整體,而且是在某些業務領域。你應該看到並繼續期待一種交付模式,那就是更高的收入水平,但尤其要專注於收入的穩定性和可預測性。

  • Secondly, that we'll continue to push gross efficiency savings to create capacity and cost for investments. And thirdly, that we will continue to be very disciplined in capital. So more on the tenth of February, but the trailer, if you like. And in terms of the structural hedge, just back to this point around predictability, the reason that we extended the duration is because we see greater stability in deposits. So it's a response to that.

    其次,我們將持續努力提高效率,節省開支,進而創造投資所需的產能和成本。第三,我們將繼續保持對資本的嚴格管理。關於2月10日的更多消息,不過如果你有興趣的話,可以先看看預告片。至於結構性對沖,回到可預測性這一點,我們延長期限的原因是,我們看到存款更加穩定。所以這是對那件事的回應。

  • What that will naturally do is slightly lower the level of maturities as you go out a little bit further. We haven't yet given a maturing yield for '28. We will do that in February. We have given you 2027. That is 2.1%. So you've got 1.5% in '25 and '26, then 2.1% in '27.

    這樣自然會導致隨著期限的延長,到期日的水平略微降低。我們尚未給出 2028 年到期的收益率。我們將在二月完成這項工作。我們已經把2027年留給你了。那就是2.1%。所以 2025 年和 2026 年的成長率是 1.5%,2027 年是 2.1%。

  • And really, what's happening here is because we are extending that, clearly, we have a mix of maturities within that maturing yield or a mix of tenors within that maturing yield. And there is a portion of seven year in there that is really holding down that maturing yield as we go a little bit further out. So hopefully, that gives you some things to work on and we'll come back to it in February.

    實際上,這裡發生的情況是,因為我們正在延長期限,顯然,我們在到期收益率中混合了不同的到期日,或者說在到期收益率中混合了不同的期限。其中有一部分是七年期的債券,隨著時間推移,這確實會拉低最終的收益率。希望這些能給你一些工作方向,我們二月再來討論這個問題。

  • Jonathan Pierce - Analyst

    Jonathan Pierce - Analyst

  • It does. Thank you very much.

    確實如此。非常感謝。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Thanks, Jonathan. Next question, please.

    謝謝你,喬納森。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Amit Goel, Mediobanca.

    Amit Goel,Mediobanca。

  • Amit Goel - Analyst

    Amit Goel - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you. Thank you for taking my questions. So two follow-up questions actually. One, just coming back in terms of the strategy update or new targets for '28 that we get with full year. I'm just kind of curious how you're going through that process? And are you thinking about kind of things like revising capital allocation to the businesses, things like that? Or is it more about efficiency and driving more out of the business with the kind of path already set?

    您好,謝謝。謝謝您回答我的問題。所以其實還有兩個後續問題。第一,我們回來後會公佈 2028 年的策略更新或新目標。我只是有點好奇你是如何度過這個過程的?您是否考慮過調整各業務的資本分配之類的事情?或者,這更多的是關於效率,以及在既定的道路上如何從業務中榨取更多價值?

  • And then secondly, just on the US CB. I think your remarks earlier that for the next couple of quarters for Q4, Q1, you'd anticipate kind of a flattish NIM on what we've just seen the 11.5%. I'm just kind of curious, given the factors that you outlined before in terms of improvement why that would be flat and why that wouldn't continue to show a bit of growth in the coming periods. Thank you.

    其次,就美國CB而言。我認為你之前說過,在接下來的幾個季度(第四季和第一季),你預計淨利差將保持平穩,而我們剛剛看到的淨利差為 11.5%。我只是有點好奇,考慮到你之前概述的那些改善因素,為什麼情況會停滯不前,而且在接下來的時期內不會繼續出現一些增長。謝謝。

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Hey Amit, thanks. Good questions. I'll take the first one and Anna will take the second one. So you should see what you. The way we're thinking about the strategy is actually what you said in the second half of your statement which is happy with the business footprint, intensification of the aspects, which Anna just referred to, top line revenue, efficiency, depth and breadth of product reach.

    嘿,阿米特,謝謝。問得好。我拿第一個,安娜拿第二個。所以你應該看看你看到了什麼。我們對策略的思考方式實際上與你在聲明後半部分所說的一致,即對業務規模感到滿意,加強安娜剛才提到的各個方面,包括總收入、效率、產品覆蓋範圍的深度和廣度。

  • And so basically getting more out of each of the businesses and getting more out of the collective. So see a continuation and an intensification of what we've done.

    因此,基本上就是從每個企業中獲得更多收益,並從集體中獲得更多收益。所以,你可以看到我們所做的一切的延續和加強。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • And Amit, on your second question, I mean, I wouldn't really add anything. There is a degree of seasonality to the business. But no, I mean NIM, we do see as many of those effects having flowed through largely already.

    阿米特,關於你的第二個問題,我沒什麼要補充的。這個行業有一定的季節性。但是,不,我的意思是 NIM,我們確實看到其中許多影響已經基本顯現出來了。

  • Typically, we see slightly lower levels of retail funding as we go into the full year just because balances grow, and we tend to use a bit more sort of the brokered deposits. So that does have a little bit of an impact on NIM. But nothing really to call out. Just assume it's broadly flat really over the next couple of quarters. And as I say, it's going to pop up again from Q2 onwards, but we'll tell you a little bit more about that.

    通常情況下,隨著全年的到來,零售融資水準會略有下降,因為餘額會增加,而且我們傾向於更多地使用經紀存款。所以這確實會對NIM產生一些影響。但沒什麼特別值得一提的。假設未來幾季整體保持平穩即可。正如我所說,從第二季開始它還會再次出現,但我們會就此再詳細介紹一下。

  • Okay, thank you for that Amit. Next question, please.

    好的,謝謝你,阿米特。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Perlie Mong, Bank of America.

    Perlie Mong,美國銀行。

  • Perlie Mong - Analyst

    Perlie Mong - Analyst

  • Oh, good morning. Just a couple of questions. First on distribution. So I think it's very welcome to see a buyback this quarter and moving to quarterly distribution. Can you just tell us how you thought about it, why did you decide to go to quarterly cadence?

    哦,早安。幾個問題。首先是分銷。所以我認為,本季進行股票回購並改為按季度分紅是非常值得歡迎的。您能告訴我們您當初是怎麼考慮這個問題的嗎?為什麼決定採用季度結算週期?

  • And in terms of going forward, is there like a sort of monthly rolling number that you are thinking about? And within the wider distribution context, now that it's closer to price to book. Are you thinking about maybe doing more dividend? So that's number one.

    至於未來發展方向,您有沒有考慮過類似每月滾動目標之類的數字?在更廣泛的分銷背景下,現在它更接近定價與預訂量之比。您是否考慮過增加分紅?這是第一點。

  • Number two is on cost. You highlighted that you've achieved your efficiency savings one quarter earlier than expected. But also for next quarter, you would expect to run towards the top end of the GBP200 million to GBP300 million cost to achieve or CTAs, if you like.

    第二點是成本。您強調,您比預期提前一個季度實現了提高效率並節省成本的目標。但對於下一季來說,預計實現成本或 CTA(行動號召)將接近 2 億至 3 億英鎊的上限。

  • So is that something that you would expect to run at level in 2026. And as part of the strategy update, I think last time we did it, I think there was maybe GBP900 million or GBP1 billion cost to achieve upfront as well. Is that something that you are thinking about as well?

    所以,你認為這種情況在 2026 年還能維持目前的水準嗎?作為策略更新的一部分,我認為上次我們這樣做的時候,前期投入可能也有 9 億到 10 億英鎊。你也在考慮這個問題嗎?

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Thanks, Perlie. Let me take both of those. So the buyback decision, really what that reflects is our confidence in the consistency of generation of capital. And it's just a clear articulation of the capital priorities that we gave you at the outset of the plan which were number one, you should expect us to be well capitalized as a regulatory matter. Number two, returning capital to shareholders; and number three, investing in the businesses.

    謝謝你,珀莉。這兩個我都帶走吧。所以,回購決定其實反映了我們對持續產生資本的信心。這只是對我們在計劃之初就向你們提出的資本優先事項的明確闡述,其中第一點是,根據監管規定,你們應該期望我們擁有充足的資本。第二,向股東返還資本;第三,投資企業。

  • So as we reflected really over the last few quarters, actually, and we've seen the strength and quality and resilience of that capital generation, this is something that we've been thinking about. So what we've done is we've accelerated a portion that we would otherwise have paid at the full year, and that's really our desire to put it in the hands of shareholders. So nothing more significant than that.

    因此,在過去的幾個季度裡,我們認真反思,也看到了資本累積的實力、品質和韌性,這是我們一直在思考的問題。因此,我們提前支付了原本應在全年支付的部分款項,這實際上是我們希望將這部分款項交給股東的願望。所以,沒有比這更重要的事了。

  • In terms of the go-forward plan in terms of balance, cadence, et cetera. We will cover that with you in February when we give you those target updates. In terms of costs, so our primary objective here is to continue to drive efficiencies. That's what we're doing. And our structural cost actions play a really key role in driving that forward, but there's no real change here at all.

    就未來的發展計畫而言,包括平衡、節奏等等。我們將在二月向您提供目標更新時詳細介紹這一點。就成本而言,我們的首要目標是持續提高效率。這就是我們正在做的。我們的結構性成本控制措施在推動這一進程中發揮了非常關鍵的作用,但這裡根本沒有任何真正的變化。

  • And in fact, given the delivery of that sort of gross efficiencies a quarter early and given we've got such momentum in our NII, had it not been for motor finance, I would have been expecting today to upgrade cost-to-income ratio to around 60%.

    事實上,鑑於我們提前一個季度實現瞭如此巨大的效率提升,並且我們的淨利息收入也取得瞭如此強勁的增長勢頭,如果不是因為汽車金融業務,我今天本應將成本收入比上調至 60% 左右。

  • As it is, given that progress we've been able to absorb motor finance and reiterate our 61% guidance to you. I still expect next year to be in the high 50%s. Typically, in any year, we spend between GBP200 million and GBP300 million. That's what we're guiding you to this year. We're just calling out, it might be towards the top end of that.

    鑑於目前的進展,我們已經能夠消化汽車金融業務,並重申我們先前給出的 61% 的業績預期。我仍然預計明年將達到50%以上。通常情況下,我們每年的支出在2億至3億英鎊之間。這就是我們今年要引導你們的方向。我們只是猜測,它可能接近最高值。

  • But again, that is all encapsulated within the guidance that we've given you of circa 61% for this year. So there's no real change to anything that we are seeing in terms of costs. But thank you for the question. Perhaps we could go to the next question, please?

    但再次強調,所有這些都包含在我們今年給出的約 61% 的指導中。所以就成本而言,我們目前看到的任何事情都沒有真正的變化。不過,謝謝你的提問。或許我們可以進入下一個問題了?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alvaro Serrano, Morgan Stanley.

    阿爾瓦羅·塞拉諾,摩根士丹利。

  • Alvaro Serrano - Analyst

    Alvaro Serrano - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking my question. I guess the two follow-ups. I apologize for another one on private credit. As you look at what went wrong in (inaudible) you've reviewed the rest of the book, are you satisfied the you've got the collateral, is the collateral integrity is there? And can you reassure us?

    您好,感謝您回答我的問題。我想應該是這兩篇後續文章。很抱歉再次使用私人信用卡付款。當你回顧了(聽不清楚)中出現的問題,以及你審閱了本書其餘部分之後,你是否滿意你所獲得的抵押品,抵押品的完整性是否到位?您能讓我們放心嗎?

  • And when we think about this business going forward, obviously, financing has been a source of growth for a while. I think, Venkat, you may have alluded to this, but should we expect that growth to slow down from that 20% run rate that you've been doing for a while?

    當我們展望這項業務的未來時,很顯然,融資一直是成長的來源。Venkat,我想你可能已經暗示過這一點,但我們是否應該預期這種成長速度會從你一直維持的 20% 的成長率放緩呢?

  • And the second question, I guess it's also a follow-up on US cards. To get to that 15% RoTE Anna, that you've often quoted, do you think you've got the right scale? I'm thinking obviously in the post American Airlines world? Or do you -- would you expect more JVs, more contract wins?

    第二個問題,我想也是關於美國信用卡的後續問題。Anna,你經常提到要達到 15% 的 RoTE(回報率),你認為你採用的衡量標準合適嗎?我指的是美國航空倒閉後的世界嗎?或者您期望有更多的合資企業,更多的合約中標?

  • And how is the pipeline looking on any further wins because I haven't seen sort of chunky ones? Obviously, you've had GM, but that's been announced a while ago. So maybe some comments on the pipeline on wins on there. Thank you.

    那麼,在後續的收購目標方面,進展如何呢?因為我還沒有看到任何實質的進展。顯然,你們已經有了GM,但這已經是很久以前宣布的事情了。所以,或許可以對管道建設和勝利做一些評論。謝謝。

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Hey. Thanks, Alvaro. Let me start with the first one. So about the review that we took, it's along the three dimensions which I said to you. One is quarters. Our company is being financially stretched. Second, the thing -- the second part is strength of financial controls in the company and independent financial controls. I also want to be very clear, there's sort of broad financing, there's private credit.

    嘿。謝謝你,阿爾瓦羅。讓我先從第一個說起。所以關於我們所做的評估,它是從我剛才跟你說的三個維度進行的。一個是四分之一。我們公司目前財務狀況緊張。第二點,也是關鍵所在──第二部分是公司財務控制的強度和獨立財務控制。我還想非常明確地說明一點,融資管道比較廣泛,包括私人信貸。

  • The slide we've given you is on private credit. And on our pattern of growth, it's been relatively stable, growing a little bit growing slowly. And I would always say on these things on lending, it is a case-by-case decision.

    我們給您的投影片是私人借閱的。就我們的成長模式而言,一直相對穩定,略有成長,但成長速度較慢。對於貸款這類事情,我總是會說,要具體問題具體分析。

  • We will look at loans, and we will decide. We tend not to grow these books that aggressively. And as you also know, I think that we tend to employ over the cycle risk transfer transactions, and we've been doing so for a decade. So that's been our broad approach to both risk management to credit risk management and to the overall portfolio.

    我們會考慮貸款,然後再做決定。我們通常不會大力推廣這類書籍。而且,正如您所知,我認為我們傾向於採用週期性風險轉移交易,而且我們已經這樣做了十年。所以,這就是我們對風險管理、信用風險管理以及整體投資組合的整體方法。

  • And then the second part of your question on private credit was basically for Anna. So I'll pass over to Anna.

    然後,你關於私人信貸問題的第二部分基本上是問安娜的。那麼接下來就交給安娜吧。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Yeah, sure. So your question references the mid-teens sort of aspiration we have for this business. I mean a large part of that is in our hands now, and you can see the progress that we're making around efficiency. We targeted mid 40%s cost income ratio. We're already at 43%.

    當然可以。所以你的問題指的是我們對這家企業在十幾年中期所抱持的那種願景。我的意思是,現在很大一部分都掌握在我們手中,你可以看到我們在提高效率方面取得的進展。我們的目標是成本收入比達到 40% 左右。我們已經達到 43%。

  • So expect us to push on. And you can see the progress in the NIM. So all of those things are within our control. We do want to grow the book. We will never do so at the expense of RoTE and we have seen opportunities to do organically, as I said, and inorganic play.

    所以,請期待我們繼續前進。您可以在 NIM 中看到進展。所以所有這些都在我們的掌控之中。我們確實希望擴大這本書的規模。我們絕不會以犧牲 RoTE 為代價,而且正如我所說,我們已經看到了有機增長和非有機增長的機會。

  • So for example, through GM. As you can imagine, we look at portfolios all the time. and we assess those as to whether or not they are RoTE generative, both for US CB and in the context of the group. The nature of this business is that it is always a balance of those two things.

    例如,透過GM。正如您所想,我們一直在研究投資組合,並評估它們是否能夠產生 RoTE,無論是針對美國央行還是就整個集團而言。這個行業的本質就是始終在這兩者之間取得平衡。

  • It's always a balance of leaning into the partners that we've already got and expanding those, which we've got good experience of but also acquiring new capabilities and partners as we go. So I'll hand to Venkat.

    我們始終需要在現有合作夥伴和拓展合作夥伴之間取得平衡,因為我們在這方面擁有豐富的經驗,同時也要持續獲取新的能力和合作夥伴。所以我把機會交給文卡特。

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Yeah. Sorry, there was one part I didn't answer, Alvaro. You asked me what about the review of DP did and what we found. So we reviewed it in the way I just said, looking at companies and looking at the controls. We're satisfied with what we've seen so far in our portfolio, what we've seen in the review we've conducted. Obviously, you're going to have to remain vigilant which we would have done anyway, but we will be vigilant going forward.

    是的。抱歉,阿爾瓦羅,我漏回答了一部分問題。你問我對DP的審查做了什麼,以及我們發現了什麼。所以我們按照我剛才說的方式進行了審查,考察了公司和控制措施。我們對目前為止在投資組合中看到的情況以及在審查過程中看到的情況感到滿意。顯然,你們必須保持警惕,我們本來也會這樣做,但今後我們會更加警惕。

  • Alvaro Serrano - Analyst

    Alvaro Serrano - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Thank you, Alvaro. Can we have the next question, please?

    謝謝你,阿爾瓦羅。請問下一個問題可以嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs.

    克里斯‧哈勒姆,高盛集團。

  • Chris Hallam - Analyst

    Chris Hallam - Analyst

  • Yeah, hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. A couple of just follow-ups left over. Venkat on NFI, sorry, Venkat, you mentioned the importance of initial qualification and continuous monitoring. And I guess, in light of recent events, that review that you're running through in that book and just triple checking everything. How far through that review are you? Or have you fully completed that review? Maybe I missed that in your earlier comments? Sorry, if I did.

    是啊,你好,早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。還剩下幾個後續問題。Venkat on NFI,抱歉,Venkat,您提到了初始資格認證和持續監控的重要性。我想,鑑於最近發生的事情,你正在閱讀的那本書裡的回顧文章,應該仔細檢查所有內容。你的評論進行到哪一步了?還是你已經完全完成那項審查了?我可能錯過了你之前的評論?如果我做了什麼,我很抱歉。

  • And then second, on the IB, and it's a bit of a follow-up to Jason's question earlier on the call. I guess this is a pretty difficult regulatory backdrop against which to set a three year plan. You mentioned that we're yet to see what the US will do and the degree of alignment that UK will settle at (inaudible) so should we think that the 2020 IV business plan is going to be sort of caveated that it's rec dependent?

    其次,關於IB,這算是對Jason在電話會議上早些時候提出的問題的後續。我認為在當前相當複雜的監管環境下制定三年計劃是困難的。您提到我們尚未看到美國會採取什麼行動,以及英國最終會採取何種程度的合作(聽不清楚),那麼我們是否應該認為 2020 年 IV 商業計劃會受到一些限制,因為它取決於市場反應?

  • Or do you think that the balance of outcomes on DRG and your earlier point on capital versus balance sheet headroom means that you have and will sustain a plan for all seasons?

    或者,您是否認為,DRG 的結果平衡以及您之前關於資本與資產負債表空間的觀點意味著您已經並將繼續制定一個適用於所有情況的計劃?

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Yeah, so I'll let -- thanks, Chris. I'll let Anna take the second question. On the first one, the review is completed. As I said, I'm satisfied with what we saw but we're going to have to continue to be vigilant and that's always been the case.

    好的,那我就不打擾了──謝謝你,克里斯。第二個問題就讓安娜來回答吧。第一個問題的審查已經完成。正如我所說,我對我們所看到的感到滿意,但我們必須繼續保持警惕,這一點一直如此。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Chris, just on your second question, I mean, you're right. It is -- there is a degree of regulatory uncertainty out there. And clearly, what we would want to have is consistency of regulation, both in its approach and its implementation date across all three jurisdictions, so Europe, UK and US. So that is difficult from a timing perspective in terms of planning.

    克里斯,關於你的第二個問題,我的意思是,你說得對。確實如此——目前存在一定程度的監管不確定性。顯然,我們希望監管方式和實施日期在歐洲、英國和美國這三個司法管轄區保持一致。所以從時間安排的角度來看,這在計劃方面是很難的。

  • But sort of more holistically than that, the plans and the strategy that we have for the Investment Bank, Venkat referred to it before as running our own race. And we remain extremely focused on doing that, obviously, mindful of the competitive environment also.

    但更全面地說,我們為投資銀行所製定的計畫和策略,正如 Venkat 之前所說的,就是「跑我們自己的賽跑」。當然,我們仍然會非常專注於此,同時也會考慮競爭環境。

  • But our objective here is and will remain to drive higher returns in the Investment Bank, more consistent returns, and that's really about focusing on the stability of income, both stable sources of income, like the international corporate bank like financing, but also stabilizing the intermediation and fees parts of the business.

    但我們的目標始終是推動投資銀行獲得更高的回報,更穩定的回報,這實際上關乎收入的穩定性,包括穩定的收入來源,例如國際企業銀行的融資業務,以及穩定中介和費用業務。

  • There's a really important piece here around cost and efficiency and technology-led efficiency. And so what you've seen over the last few quarters, we've had six quarters of consecutive positive jaws in this business. And then the third piece is just this continued driving capital efficiency.

    這裡涉及到一個非常重要的部分,那就是成本、效率以及技術驅動的效率。因此,在過去的幾個季度裡,你們也看到了,我們在這個行業已經連續六個季度實現了積極的成長。第三點就是持續提高資本效率。

  • We think we've got a ways to go. You've seen, again, six consecutive quarters of year-over-year improvement, but there's more there for us to do. So I think it's really important that we focus on the things that we can control and then navigate the regulatory environment as it emerges, and we are well used to doing that.

    我們認為我們還有很長的路要走。你們已經再次看到連續六個季度同比增長,但我們還有更多工作要做。所以我認為,我們真正應該關注的是我們可以控制的事情,然後根據不斷變化的監管環境進行調整,而我們在這方面已經非常熟練了。

  • We've seen divergences before. We continue to see them, and we'll deal with it when we have the facts in front of us.

    我們以前也見過這種分歧。我們持續關注這些問題,並在掌握事實後再處理。

  • Chris Hallam - Analyst

    Chris Hallam - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you very much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Thank you for the questions. Next question, please.

    謝謝大家的提問。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Coombs, Citigroup.

    安德魯庫姆斯,花旗集團。

  • Andrew Coombs - Analyst

    Andrew Coombs - Analyst

  • Morning, two questions, please. Firstly, if I could just follow up on the Investment Bank. Obviously, you had a very strong first half of the year. Q3 is perhaps slightly lagged the growth seen in the US peers. Can you just explain how much you think that's just a mix of debt? Is the mix effect by business segment by region across equities and across primary? Or are there any gaps that you're still looking to infill there?

    早上好,請問兩個問題。首先,我想跟進一下投資銀行的情況。顯然,你上半年的表現非常出色。第三季的成長可能略落後於美國同業。你能解釋一下你認為其中有多少是債務嗎?依業務板塊、按地區、按股票和一級市場劃分的組合效應如何?或者,您還有什麼空白需要填補?

  • And then the second question or a question on the UK. You've obviously seen strong mortgage and corporate loan growth in Q3. But you perhaps touch upon customer behavior and activity going into the November budget. Thank you.

    然後是第二個問題,或者說是關於英國的問題。顯然,第三季抵押貸款和企業貸款都實現了強勁成長。但您或許可以談談客戶在 11 月預算中的行為和活動。謝謝。

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Yeah, hey, Andy, thanks. Let me begin with the IB and then I will pass over to Anna on the UK. As I've told you, I take a long view of this. We are running our own race. We set out targets. We put in an RWA target for the Investment Bank, which was to keep it flat and we've kept flat.

    是啊,嘿,安迪,謝謝。我先從IB開始講起,然後把話題交給Anna,讓她講講英國的狀況。正如我之前跟你說過的那樣,我對這件事是從長遠角度考慮的。我們有自己的比賽路線。我們設定了目標。我們為投資銀行設定了風險加權資產目標,即保持其不變,而我們也確實做到了。

  • We also instituted RWA discipline, which Anna just spoke about. And then we had both revenue targets, cost efficiency targets and overall return targets, profitability targets, all of which we've been meeting. We also put in within that, certain areas of focus within markets and banking.

    我們也制定了RWA紀律,安娜剛才也提到了這一點。然後,我們設定了收入目標、成本效益目標和整體回報目標、獲利目標,所有這些目標我們都實現了。其中,我們也重點關注了市場和銀行業的一些特定領域。

  • In markets, it was European risk, it was securitized products. It was equities, particularly equity derivatives. In banking, it was certain sectors, healthcare and tech, and then it was M&A and ECM. Now over this long period, we have shown strong progress in all these dimensions.

    在市場上,風險在於歐洲,在於證券化產品。是股票,特別是股票衍生性商品。在銀行業,是某些特定領域,如醫療保健和科技;然後是併購和股權資本管理。經過這麼長時間的發展,我們在所有這些方面都取得了顯著進步。

  • Even if you look at something like equity derivatives, We've been growing a couple of percent over this year, less than what the US peers had this quarter. Quarter-to-quarter, there will be variations. Some of that variation is about the amount of capital and balance sheet, some of the competitors allocate over time. Some of that creation is geographical concentration.

    即使以股票衍生性商品為例,我們今年的成長率也只有幾個百分點,低於美國同業本季的成長速度。每個季度之間都會有所波動。部分差異在於資本和資產負債表的規模,以及一些競爭對手隨著時間的推移而進行的資產配置。這種創造的一部分體現在地理集中。

  • So Asia has been strong. We've always been very clear that we have a solid Asian presence, but it's not as deep and broad as others have. There are times when commodities plays a role. There's times when credit plays a role, and that's generally good for us.

    所以亞洲表現一直很強。我們一直都非常清楚,我們在亞洲擁有穩固的業務,但與其他人相比,我們的業務深度和廣度還不夠。有些時候,大宗商品會發揮作用。有時候信用會發揮作用,這通常對我們有利。

  • So I would view what you've seen in this quarter's results as that kind of normal Q-on-Q variation, I don't think when I look at the plans of the investment bank, what we've had, what we intend to do, that there are sort of gaps or holes we need to fill. I think we continue to build on technology, continue to build on product sophistication, continue to build on client reach. And we will show the returns that we've set out to and we've displayed over the last seven quarters.

    所以我認為,本季業績的波動屬於正常的季度環比波動。從投資銀行的計畫來看,我們已經做了什麼,我們打算做什麼,我認為並沒有什麼需要填補的空白或漏洞。我認為我們將繼續在技術上取得進步,並持續提升產品成熟度,並持續擴大客戶群。我們將展示我們設定的目標以及過去七個季度所取得的回報。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Thanks, Venkat. Andy, here's how I think about the UK landscape. So I think about it first and how our consumers spending, what does the demand for credit look like, and then thirdly, how is that credit performing? And if you look through these lenses, then you get a pretty good view.

    謝謝你,文卡特。安迪,以下是我對英國景觀的看法。所以我先會思考消費者的支出狀況,信貸需求如何,然後,信用表現如何?如果你透過這些鏡頭看,就能看到相當不錯的景象。

  • So I mean UK consumer behavior is slightly cautious, but we continue to see signs of improvement. So credit spend is higher than debit spend. We've seen an increase -- slight increase in non-essential spending and confidence metrics have grown slightly. So far, so good. And we also see that flowing into, for example, the demand for credit. And you can see that in terms of our UK momentum.

    我的意思是,英國消費者的行為略顯謹慎,但我們持續看到改善的跡象。所以信用卡消費高於金融卡消費。我們看到非必需品支出略有增加,信心指標也略有上升。到目前為止,一切都很好。我們也看到,這種趨勢也反映在信貸需求等方面。從我們英國的發展動能就能看出這一點。

  • The demand for mortgage credit is good. And as I said, that's not just refinancing. So in a very cautious environment, you see less house purchase. But what we see is how to purchase growth, first-time buyer growth, and also refinancing demand. There's good demand from cards, as you can see.

    抵押貸款需求良好。正如我所說,這不僅僅是再融資。因此,在非常謹慎的環境下,房屋購買量會減少。但我們看到的是購買力成長、首次購屋者成長以及再融資需求。正如你所看到的,卡片市場需求旺盛。

  • And actually, the thing we talk about less is demand from corporates. And you can see really good lending in our corporate book. That is coming broadly half and half from existing clients and new clients. We've originated more than 400 new clients this year. That's on top of the 550 that we did last year and our lending market share is up 70 bps.

    事實上,我們談論得最少的是來自企業的需求。您可以在我們的企業貸款組合中看到非常好的貸款表現。其中,現有客戶和新客戶各佔一半。今年我們新增了 400 多位客戶。這是在我們去年完成的 550 筆貸款的基礎上實現的,我們的貸款市佔率上升了 70 個基點。

  • So we don't see a lack of demand for credit at a macro level. If we're looking for points that were slightly more hesitant, we would say we see a little bit of hesitancy in mid-corp, but generally speaking, good demand for credit.

    因此,從宏觀層面來看,我們並未看到信貸需求不足的情況。如果我們要尋找一些略顯猶豫的方面,我們會說,我們看到中型企業存在一些猶豫,但總的來說,信貸需求良好。

  • And then finally, credit performance is good. We see that in mortgages, we see it in cards. I mean UK card delinquencies are extremely low. And I would say across all of the portfolios are low and stable and exactly as we would have expected them to be. And the same is true of corporates. There are no significant single names in our corporate book. So the UK landscape remains pretty robust. But thank you, Andy, for your questions. Can we have the next question, please?

    最後,信用表現良好。我們在抵押貸款中看到了這一點,我們在信用卡中也看到了這一點。我的意思是,英國的信用卡欠款率非常低。而且我認為所有投資組合的收益率都很低且穩定,完全符合我們的預期。企業的情況也是如此。我們的公司名錄中沒有特別知名的個人或公司。因此,英國的房地產市場依然相當穩健。不過,安迪,謝謝你的提問。請問下一個問題可以嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Benjamin Toms, RBC.

    Benjamin Toms,RBC。

  • Benjamin Toms - Analyst

    Benjamin Toms - Analyst

  • Morning both. Thank you for taking my questions. The first is in relation to European Bank per share suffer this week in relation to losing a US litigation case. It was underpinned by the fact that the bank has provided finance to a sanctioned nation.

    早安,兩位。謝謝您回答我的問題。第一件事與歐洲銀行本週股價下跌有關,因為該行在美國輸掉了一場訴訟。其根本原因在於該銀行向一個受制裁的國家提供了融資。

  • I think that Barclays settled with the US regulators in 2010 in respect to providing finance to a sanction nation. Can you provide any comfort for us why we shouldn't add this to a potential litigation risk for Barclays in the future?

    我認為巴克萊銀行在 2010 年就向受制裁國家提供融資一事與美國監管機構達成了和解。您能否解釋一下,為什麼我們不應該將此列為巴克萊銀行未來可能面臨的訴訟風險?

  • And then secondly, in your Private Banking and Wealth Management, the AUM and OUS grew pretty quickly in the quarter. To what extent do you expect this organic growth trend to continue over the next 12 months? Thank you.

    其次,在私人銀行和財富管理方面,本季資產管理規模 (AUM) 和營運規模 (OUS) 成長相當快速。您預計這種自然成長趨勢在未來 12 個月內會持續到什麼程度?謝謝。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • In terms of the first point, there's nothing of which I would call out, Ben, we can follow up with you with a bit more detail about the historic cases, but nothing I would call out. On your second point, we continue to make good progress with the Private Bank, another GBP0.7 billion of net new money in the quarter. So we're pleased with its progress. And obviously, its RoTE remains above its target level, which was greater than 25%, so pretty robust.

    關於第一點,本,我沒有什麼要特別指出的,我們可以就歷史案例提供更多細節,但我沒有什麼要特別指出的。關於你的第二點,我們在私人銀行方面繼續取得良好進展,本季新增淨資金達 7 億英鎊。所以我們對它的進展感到滿意。顯然,其 RoTE 仍然高於其目標水準(超過 25%),因此相當穩健。

  • Obviously, the opportunity for that business we believe, really comes in the future as we start to access the sort of mass affluent and wealth markets. So probably more to come on that. I wouldn't call out anything specific now. But again, thank you for the questions. And then operator, perhaps we could have the next question, which I believe is our last question.

    顯然,我們認為,這項業務的真正機會將在未來到來,屆時我們將開始接觸大眾富裕階層和財富市場。所以,這方面可能還會有更多消息。現在我不會點名批評任何事。再次感謝大家的提問。操作員,或許我們可以問下一個問題,我相信這將是我們的最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Edward Firth, KBW. Please go ahead.

    愛德華·弗斯,KBW。請繼續。

  • Edward Firth - Analyst

    Edward Firth - Analyst

  • Oh, thanks very much. Morning, everybody. I just had a question on your '26 targets actually because if I look across the piece, I mean, you're pretty much nailing everyone and some by some margin. But I guess the one that stands out is the investment banking RWAs, which I can see you reiterated today at 50%, which is still quite a long way from where we are today.

    哦,非常感謝。大家早安。我其實有個關於你 26 年目標的問題,因為如果我縱觀整篇文章,我的意思是,你幾乎擊中了所有人,而且有些目標還領先不少。但我認為最突出的是投資銀行的風險加權資產 (RWA),我看到您今天重申了 50% 的水平,這與我們今天的水平還有相當大的差距。

  • And I'm just thinking that in terms of if I look at the return, that's the business that has -- the returns are significantly below the other divisions, I guess, and I would have that the cost of equity is higher as well. And I guess that's probably the division which is the reason for you trading where you do. So I do think that 50% is quite an important target, particularly in terms of a statement of intent and where we see it going from there.

    我只是在想,如果從回報的角度來看,這個業務的回報明顯低於其他部門,而且我認為它的權益成本也更高。我想這可能就是你選擇在那裡交易的原因。所以我認為 50% 是一個相當重要的目標,尤其是在顯示意圖以及展望未來發展方向方面。

  • But I don't really see how you're going to get there. And so you just -- can you give us sort of some flavor? Are we talking about a big reduction in investment banking RWAs? Is there some sort of risk transfer you're going to do? Or are we looking at much bigger growth somewhere that I'm not thinking about? Because you're talking about more than a 10% swing there. Thanks very much.

    但我真不知道你要怎麼到達那裡。所以,你可以跟我們描述一下大概情況嗎?我們說的是投資銀行風險加權資產的大幅下降嗎?你們打算進行某種風險轉移嗎?或者,我們是否正在關注我未曾想到的更大成長點?因為你說的波動幅度超過了10%。非常感謝。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Okay. Why don't I start and then hand to Venkat. So just in terms of the 50%, remember, when we wrote that we were in a very different environment in terms of regulatory timing. So there are two things that are under control and under our control and one that isn't. The first is holding the IB RWA flat.

    好的。不如我先開始,然後交給文卡特。所以,就 50% 這個數字而言,請記住,當我們寫下這個數字時,我們在監管時間方面所處的環境與現在截然不同。所以有兩件事在我們的掌控之下,還有一件事不在我們的掌控之下。第一種方法是保持IB RWA不變。

  • We've actually done that for more than 3.5 years now. It's not just part of this strategy. It was there before. Secondly, continuing to grow in the UK, and you can see the progress. The thing that I can't control is the implementation date of the IRB model.

    實際上,我們已經這樣做了超過3年半了。這不僅僅是該戰略的一部分。它之前就在那裡。其次,在英國持續成長,你可以看到取得的進展。我無法控制的是 IRB 模式的實施日期。

  • That's very difficult to say, particularly on the call, or indeed, some of the Basel implementation effects. But the strategic intent that sits underneath that 50% remains the same, Ed, but there's regulatory timing that I can't control.

    這很難說,尤其是在電話會議上,或者說,巴塞爾協議的一些實施效果。但艾德,這 50% 背後的策略意圖仍然不變,只是監管時機是我無法控制的。

  • As to your point on returns, I mean we were really clear that the returns of the IB were not where they needed to be, but you can see that we're making progress. Just to call it out, it's 12.9% year-to-date, much more in line with the group versus 10.1% last year. So we are making good progress, but I'll hand to Venkat for more comments.

    至於你提到的收益問題,我的意思是,我們非常清楚投資銀行的收益還沒有達到應有的水平,但你可以看到我們正在取得進步。需要指出的是,今年迄今的成長率為 12.9%,與去年同期的 10.1% 相比,更符合集團的整體水準。所以我們目前進展順利,但接下來請 Venkat 發表更多評論。

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Yeah. Look, I'll say exactly that. We were very, very clear at the start of our strategy that we were going to hold the IB RWA flat. And the reasoning behind that was we felt and we feel we've got a very strong, capable for IB.

    是的。聽著,我就這麼說。在策略制定之初,我們就非常明確地表示,我們將維持投資銀行風險加權資產不變。背後的原因是,我們當時覺得,現在也仍然覺得,我們擁有一支非常強大、有能力的IB團隊。

  • And that at those levels of RWA, with greater RWA efficiency, which we've demonstrated, it can be very competitive, and we've shown our competitiveness over the long time -- over this period. What we said also was that the percentage is an outcome, as Anna just described, which is based on not just holding it flat but growing in the UK and then assumptions about capital calculations for the rest of our book, particularly US cards.

    而且,在 RWA 水平下,憑藉更高的 RWA 效率(我們已經證明),它可以非常具有競爭力,而且我們已經在很長一段時間內——在這段時間裡——證明了我們的競爭力。我們還說過,正如安娜剛才所描述的那樣,這個百分比是一個結果,它不僅基於保持現狀,而且基於在英國的增長,然後基於對我們書中其餘部分(特別是美國信用卡)資本計算的假設。

  • The first two we control, holding the IB RWA is flat and then what we've been doing in the UK where we've been showing the growth which we said we would, right? The third part we cannot control, and that affects the percentage. And if you go on which is the goal.

    前兩項由我們掌控,IB RWA 保持平穩,然後是我們在英國所做的,我們已經實現了我們所說的成長,對吧?第三部分我們無法控制,這會影響百分比。如果你繼續下去,那就是目標。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Yes, yes. The flat is the important point.

    是的,是的。公寓是關鍵。

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Edward Firth - Analyst

    Edward Firth - Analyst

  • Fantastic.

    極好的。

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • Edward Firth - Analyst

    Edward Firth - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you very much.

    完美的。非常感謝。

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • That's exactly -- the flat is exactly the important point. And as Anna said, on RoTE, it's again been behaving exactly what -- the way we would want. It's a returns-focused business. And it is approaching and in some instances, if you look at the time periods in the past, the group average. So exactly what was outlined, exactly what has been delivered, promises kept. Thank you very much, everybody.

    沒錯——公寓才是關鍵。正如 Anna 所說,在 RoTE 上,它的表現再次完全符合我們的預期。這是一個以回報為導向的企業。而且它正在逼近,在某些情況下,如果你看一下過去的時期,你會發現群體平均值。所以,所有計劃都已實現,所有承諾都已兌現。非常感謝大家。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Yes. Thank you. Thank you, everybody. Thank you, Ed, for that question. We will see you on the road from tomorrow, and we are looking forward to an analyst lunch as opposed to an analyst breakfast next Tuesday. So hope to see you all soon and thank you for your continued interest in Barclays.

    是的。謝謝。謝謝大家。謝謝你,艾德,問了這個問題。從明天開始,我們將在路上與您見面,我們期待下週二與分析師共進午餐,而不是像往常一樣共進早餐。希望很快能見到大家,感謝大家一直以來對巴克萊銀行的關注。

  • Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan - Group Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

    Anna Cross - Group Finance Director, Executive Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。