Ball Corp (BALL) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Ball Corporation's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

問候並歡迎參加 Ball Corporation 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Brandon Potthoff, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

現在我很高興介紹主持人、投資者關係主管 Brandon Potthoff。謝謝您，先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Christine. Good morning, everyone. This is Ball Corporation's conference call regarding the company's second-quarter 2025 results.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。大家早安。這是鮑爾公司關於公司 2025 年第二季業績的電話會議。

The information provided during this call will contain forward-looking statements. Actual results or outcomes may differ materially from those that may be expressed or implied. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made today. Some factors that could cause the results or outcomes to differ are described in the company's latest Form 10-K, our most recent earnings release and Form 8-K and in other company SEC filings, as well as company news releases. If you do not already have our earnings release, it is available on our website at ball.com.

本次電話會議中提供的資訊將包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果或成果可能與明示或暗示的結果或成果有重大差異。我們不承擔更新今天所作的任何前瞻性陳述的義務。本公司最新的 10-K 表格、我們最新的收益報告和 8-K 表格以及其他公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及公司新聞稿中描述了一些可能導致結果或成果不同的因素。如果您還沒有收到我們的收益報告，您可以在我們的網站 ball.com 上查看。

Information regarding the use of non-GAAP financial measures may also be found in the notes section of today's earnings release. In addition, the release includes a summary of noncomparable items as well as a reconciliation of comparable net earnings and diluted earnings per share calculations. References to net sales and comparable operating earnings in today's release and call do not include the company's former aerospace business. Prior year-to-date net earnings attributable to the corporation and comparable net earnings do include the performance of the company's former aerospace business through the sale date of February 16, 2024.

有關使用非公認會計準則財務指標的資訊也可在今天的收益報告的註釋部分找到。此外，新聞稿還包括不可比較項目的摘要以及可比淨收益和每股攤薄收益計算的對帳。今天的發布和電話會議中提到的淨銷售額和可比營業收入並不包括該公司以前的航空航天業務。歸屬於公司的上一年度淨收益和可比淨收益確實包括了公司前航空航太業務截至 2024 年 2 月 16 日出售日期的業績。

I would now like to turn the call over to our CEO, Dan Fisher.

現在我想將電話轉給我們的執行長 Dan Fisher。

Thank you, Brandon. Today, I'm joined on our call by Dan Rabbitt, Senior Vice President and Interim CFO. I will provide some brief introductory remarks and discuss second-quarter financial performance. Dan will touch on key metrics for 2025, and then we will finish up with closing comments and Q&A.

謝謝你，布蘭登。今天，高級副總裁兼臨時財務長 Dan Rabbitt 也參加了我們的電話會議。我將做一些簡短的介紹並討論第二季的財務表現。丹將談到 2025 年的關鍵指標，然後我們將進行結束語和問答。

Before we move on, I'd like to extend my sincere appreciation to Dan for stepping in as Interim Chief Financial Officer. Dan has served as our Senior Vice President of Corporate Planning and Development since 2016 and has successfully led more than 25 strategic transactions, from acquisitions and joint ventures to investments and divestitures. He also previously led our aerosol business as Vice President and General Manager. His deep institutional knowledge and proven deal-making expertise that brought immediate leadership and continuity to our finance organization. And in just over one month since assuming the role, Dan has ensured we're on track with our financial discipline, supported both our capital allocation targets, and partnered closely across the business. Dan, thank you for your steady leadership and dedication during this important time.

在我們繼續之前，我想向丹擔任臨時財務長表示誠摯的感謝。Dan 自 2016 年起擔任我們的企業規劃和發展高級副總裁，成功領導了 25 多項策略交易，包括收購和合資、投資和資產剝離。他也曾擔任我們的氣霧劑業務副總裁兼總經理。他深厚的機構知識和成熟的交易專業知識為我們的金融機構帶來了直接的領導和連續性。上任僅一個多月，丹就確保我們嚴格遵守財務紀律，支持我們的資本配置目標，並與整個企業密切合作。丹，感謝您在這段重要時期的穩健領導和奉獻精神。

Turning to business performance. We delivered strong second-quarter results and returned $1.13 billion to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends through today's call. This performance reemphasizes our opportunity to deliver record adjusted free cash flow and comparable diluted earnings per share in 2025.

轉向業務績效。我們取得了強勁的第二季業績，並透過今天的電話會議透過股票回購和股息向股東返還了 11.3 億美元。這一業績再次強調了我們有機會在 2025 年實現創紀錄的調整後自由現金流和可比的每股攤薄收益。

Aluminum packaging is outperforming other substrates across the globe, demonstrating the resilient and defensive nature of our global business. We continue to monitor the ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and consumer pressures, particularly in the US, and we are confident in our ability to proactively manage these challenges and sustain our positive momentum throughout the year to deliver 12% to 15% comparable diluted EPS growth.

鋁包裝的表現優於全球其他基材，展現了我們全球業務的彈性和防禦性。我們將繼續關注與關稅和消費者壓力相關的持續不確定性，特別是在美國，我們有信心能夠積極應對這些挑戰，並在全年保持積極勢頭，實現 12% 至 15% 的可比稀釋每股收益增長。

2025 second-quarter comparable diluted earnings per share was $0.90 versus $0.74 in the second quarter of 2024, an increase of 22%. Second-quarter comparable net earnings of $249 million were driven by higher volume and cost management initiatives, partially offset by higher interest expense and lower interest income. In North and Central America, stronger-than-expected volume performance was not enough to offset product mix and cost to serve headwinds. Our team executed well, successfully serving higher-than-expected demand, managing the impacts of the Section 232 tariffs, and mitigating risks despite a volatile environment.

2025 年第二季可比每股攤薄收益為 0.90 美元，而 2024 年第二季為 0.74 美元，成長 22%。第二季可比淨利潤為 2.49 億美元，這得益於銷售增加和成本管理措施的推動，但利息支出增加和利息收入減少部分抵消了這一增長。在北美和中美洲，強於預期的銷售表現不足以抵銷產品組合和服務成本的不利影響。我們的團隊表現出色，成功滿足了高於預期的需求，管理了第 232 條關稅的影響，並在動盪的環境中降低了風險。

Volume growth was largely driven by strength in energy drinks and nonalcoholic beverages. We remain attentive to the ongoing geopolitical landscape and tariff developments and are actively managing these dynamics.

銷售成長主要得益於能量飲料和非酒精飲料的強勁成長。我們持續關注當前的地緣政治格局和關稅發展，並積極應對這些動態。

In EMEA, second-quarter segment volume remained robust, and segment comparable operating earnings increased 14%. Demand trends continue to be favorable, strengthening our confidence in achieving significant year-over-year comparable operating earnings growth in 2025, driven by sustained volume growth and ongoing operational efficiency.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，第二季分部銷售量維持強勁，分部可比營業利潤成長 14%。需求趨勢持續向好，增強了我們對在 2025 年實現同比營業利潤大幅增長的信心，這得益於持續的銷售成長和持續的營運效率。

In South America, segment comparable operating earnings increased 38%, supported by strong volume performance in Argentina and Chile. While the Brazilian market performed below our initial expectations, we expect to return to growth in the second half of the year. Our regional performance culminated in Ball's global beverage can shipments being up 4.3% year over year in the second quarter of 2025.

在南美洲，由於阿根廷和智利的強勁銷售表現，分部可比營業利潤成長了 38%。雖然巴西市場的表現低於我們最初的預期，但我們預計今年下半年將恢復成長。我們的區域業績最終導致 Ball 的全球飲料罐出貨量在 2025 年第二季年增 4.3%。

We delivered a strong first half of 2025, positioning us well for the rest of the year. We recognize there remains important work ahead to achieve our full-year objectives. Our teams are committed to carefully navigating ongoing uncertainties and leveraging the resilience and strength of our global portfolio. We're laser-focused on our updated goal of delivering 12% to 15% comparable diluted EPS growth for the year. And while mindful of the challenges, we have confidence in our team's proven ability to execute effectively and deliver meaningful value to shareholders.

我們在 2025 年上半年表現強勁，為今年剩餘時間的業績奠定了良好基礎。我們認識到，要實現全年目標，我們還有很多重要的工作要做。我們的團隊致力於謹慎應對持續的不確定性，並利用我們全球投資組合的彈性和實力。我們全心全意地致力於實現更新後的目標，今年實現 12% 至 15% 的可比稀釋每股收益成長。儘管面臨挑戰，我們仍然相信我們的團隊有能力有效執行並為股東帶來有意義的價值。

After a strong first half, we now anticipate 2025 global volume growth to be above the long-term 2% to 3% range and expect all of our businesses to perform in line with or ahead of our long-term targets in 2025. This reflects the durability of underlying global demand, the strength of our customer relationships, in addition to the operational consistency of our teams across markets.

在經歷了上半年的強勁表現後，我們預計 2025 年全球銷售成長率將高於長期 2% 至 3% 的範圍，並預期我們所有業務的表現都將達到或超過 2025 年的長期目標。這反映了全球潛在需求的持久性、我們客戶關係的牢固性以及我們各個市場團隊的營運一致性。

In EMEA, we continue to expect mid-single-digit volume growth in 2025 as the competitive advantages of aluminum packaging and low can penetration rates continue to drive share gains across the region. In South America, recovery in Argentina and Chile, coupled with anticipated growth in Brazil and Paraguay, is expected to drive volume above our 4% to 6% long-term range in 2025.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們繼續預計 2025 年銷售將實現中等個位數成長，因為鋁包裝的競爭優勢和低罐滲透率將繼續推動該地區的份額成長。在南美洲，阿根廷和智利的復甦，加上巴西和巴拉圭的預期成長，預計將推動 2025 年銷量超過我們 4% 至 6% 的長期預期。

In our North American business, higher-than-expected volume growth across nonalcoholic categories, especially energy drinks, gives us confidence that we will see volume grow near the top end of our 1% to 3% long-term range in 2025. We remain confident in our ability to deliver volume growth in line with or slightly above the market in 2025. We believe the defensive nature of our portfolio, combined with our strong customer alignment, positions us well to navigate potential economic uncertainty.

在我們的北美業務中，非酒精類產品（尤其是能量飲料）的銷售成長高於預期，這使我們有信心在 2025 年看到銷量成長接近 1% 至 3% 的長期範圍的上限。我們仍然有信心，到 2025 年，我們能夠實現與市場持平或略高於市場的銷售成長。我們相信，我們投資組合的防禦性，加上我們強大的客戶一致性，使我們能夠很好地應對潛在的經濟不確定性。

With that, I will turn it over to Dan to talk about key metrics for 2025.

接下來，我將把時間交給丹來談談 2025 年的關鍵指標。

Thank you, Dan, and it's a pleasure to be on this call with you today. We anticipate year-end 2025 net debt to comparable EBITDA to be around 2.75 times, and we will repurchase at least $1.3 billion of shares in 2025. Through today's call, we have already purchased 1 billion shares year to date. 2025 CapEx is expected to be slightly below the D&A in the range of $600 million. We anticipate being able to deliver on our target of comparable net earnings equal to adjusted free cash flow in 2025.

謝謝你，丹，今天很高興和你通話。我們預計 2025 年底淨負債與可比較 EBITDA 的比率約為 2.75 倍，並且我們將在 2025 年回購至少 13 億美元的股票。透過今天的電話會議，我們今年迄今已經購買了10億股。預計 2025 年資本支出將略低於折舊攤提前利潤 (D&A)，約 6 億美元。我們預計在 2025 年將能夠實現可比淨收益等於調整後自由現金流的目標。

Relative to the estimated tax payments due on the aerospace sale, we expect the remaining portion to be paid in the second half of 2025. Our 2025 full-year effective tax rate on comparable earnings is expected to be slightly above 22%, largely driven by lower year-over-year tax credits. Full-year 2025 interest expense is expected to be in the range of $300 million, and full-year 2025 reported adjusted corporate undistributed costs recorded in other nonreportable are expected to be in the range of $150 million. And last week, Ball's Board declared its quarterly cash dividend.

相對於航空航太銷售應繳納的預估稅款，我們預計剩餘部分將在 2025 年下半年支付。我們 2025 年全年可比收益的有效稅率預計將略高於 22%，這主要是由於同比稅收抵免減少。預計 2025 年全年利息支出將在 3 億美元左右，而 2025 年全年報告的調整後公司未分配成本（記錄在其他非報告項目中）預計將在 1.5 億美元左右。上週，鮑爾董事會宣布了季度現金股利。

As we look ahead to the second half of 2025, we remain committed to operational excellence, disciplined cost control, and enhancing productivity across our global footprint. We continue to actively monitor developments in emerging markets and broader geopolitical conditions, staying agile and responsive in a dynamic environment.

展望 2025 年下半年，我們將繼續致力於卓越營運、嚴格的成本控制以及提高全球業務的生產力。我們繼續積極關注新興市場和更廣泛的地緣政治條件的發展，在動態環境中保持敏捷和響應。

Our resilient defensive business model, along with the proactive measures we've implemented to reinforce our balance sheet, positions us favorably against external volatility. With a solid financial foundation and a clear runway ahead, we are confident in executing initiatives designed to deliver sustainable, high-quality results and drive consistent long-term value creation for the shareholders.

我們具有韌性的防禦性商業模式，以及我們為加強資產負債表而採取的主動措施，使我們在抵禦外部波動方面處於有利地位。憑藉著堅實的財務基礎和清晰的未來發展方向，我們有信心實施旨在實現可持續、高品質成果並為股東創造長期價值的舉措。

And with that, I'm turning it back to Dan Fisher.

現在，我把話題轉回給丹費雪。

Thanks, Dan. Our business continues to perform well, driven by robust demand across our global network. Tight capacity conditions reinforce the critical importance of executing at the highest level operationally, ensuring we meet customer expectations reliably and efficiently. Thanks to the agility and dedication of our teams, we remain firmly on track to deliver on our financial objectives for the year, including achieving 12% to 15% comparable diluted EPS growth, generating adjusted free cash flow aligned with comparable net earnings and returning significant capital to shareholders through substantial share repurchases and dividends.

謝謝，丹。受全球網路強勁需求的推動，我們的業務持續表現良好。緊張的產能條件強調了在最高營運水準上執行的關鍵重要性，確保我們可靠、有效率地滿足客戶期望。由於我們團隊的敏捷和奉獻精神，我們仍然堅定地朝著實現今年財務目標的方向前進，包括實現 12% 至 15% 的可比稀釋每股收益增長、產生與可比淨收益相符的調整後自由現金流，並通過大量股票回購和股息向股東返還大量資本。

While external volatility persists, particularly relating to geopolitical events and market conditions, the resilience of our business model positions us strongly to manage through uncertainty. Our proactive steps to optimize our footprint, secure long-term contracts, and maintain disciplined financial management further bolster our ability to deliver consistent high-quality performance.

儘管外部波動持續存在，特別是與地緣政治事件和市場狀況有關的波動，但我們業務模式的彈性使我們能夠有力地應對不確定性。我們採取積極措施優化我們的足跡，確保長期合同，並保持嚴格的財務管理，進一步增強了我們提供持續高品質績效的能力。

Creating long-term shareholder value remains our top priority. As we continue to execute effectively, leverage our strengths in innovative and sustainable aluminum packaging solutions, and manage our operations with rigor, we are confident in our ability to generate meaningful and compounding returns for shareholders through 2025 and beyond. We appreciate the work being done across the organization and extend our well wishes to our employees, customers, suppliers, stakeholders, and everyone listening today. Thank you.

創造長期股東價值仍然是我們的首要任務。隨著我們繼續有效執行，利用我們在創新和永續鋁包裝解決方案方面的優勢，並嚴格管理我們的運營，我們有信心在 2025 年及以後為股東創造有意義的複合回報。我們感謝整個組織所做的工作，並向我們的員工、客戶、供應商、利益相關者以及今天聆聽的所有人致以良好的祝愿。謝謝。

And with that, Christine, we are ready for questions.

克里斯汀，我們已經準備好回答問題了。

Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

甘沙姆·潘賈比，貝爾德。

Could you just give us a bit more color on what's driving the outperformance in the nonalcohol categories for the beverage North America and Central America segment, especially during the second quarter? And given the strength there and your obvious positive view for the back half of the year for the segment as well, can you just give us more context as to why margins were down 140 basis points for that segment? I know you called out price mix and higher costs. Just give us some detail there.

您能否向我們詳細介紹一下推動北美和中美洲飲料市場非酒精類產品表現優異的原因，尤其是在第二季？鑑於該部門的強勁表現以及您對今年下半年該部門的明顯樂觀看法，您能否向我們詳細介紹一下該部門利潤率下降 140 個基點的原因？我知道您提到了價格組合和更高的成本。只需向我們提供一些細節即可。

Sure, Ghansham. Yeah, I think the -- coming into the year, we did think that there would be more aggressive nature relative to the energy drink customers, and they got out of the gate strong. One of our large strategic partners is growing nearly 20%. So that was unanticipated. And so I'm encouraged.

當然，甘沙姆。是的，我認為——進入今年，我們確實認為相對於能量飲料客戶，他們會表現出更積極的性質，而且他們一開始就表現強勁。我們的一個大型策略夥伴的成長率接近20%。所以這是出乎意料的。因此我感到很受鼓舞。

There's some innovation in that category, probably more so than any other category, flavor proliferations and the right can mix, the right promotional activity, advertising. So I think they figured out a recipe that's winning right now.

這個類別中有一些創新，可能比其他任何類別都多，包括口味的多樣化、正確的混合、正確的促銷活動和廣告。所以我認為他們已經找到了現在製勝的秘訣。

I think the other thing in the nonalcohol category, in particular, is we're seeing a lot of multipack purchases that are connected to purchasing on promotional activity. The promotional activity is not higher than it has been in the last couple of years, but people are buying connected to that. So that's certainly good for the can.

我認為非酒精類產品的另一個特點是，我們看到許多多件裝購買都與促銷活動購買有關。促銷活動並不比過去幾年活躍，但人們的購買行為卻與此相關。所以這對罐頭來說當然是好事。

We continue to believe that those tailwinds will persist for the back half of the year. Obviously, beer is softer than we anticipated. Some of our customers in that category, some brands are doing a little better than the aggregate. So I think some of our mix has certainly benefited there.

我們仍然相信，這些順風將在今年下半年持續下去。顯然，啤酒比我們預想的要軟。我們該類別中的一些客戶、一些品牌的表現比總體要好一些。所以我認為我們的一些組合肯定在那裡受益。

And then just in terms of maybe transitioning to the margin piece, certainly some inefficiencies when you're growing that fast, unanticipated in the delivery of that. Yes, we highlighted mix. Less beer, more non-alc is lower margin for us. So we'll take the volume growth, and I think we just need to figure out how to more effectively and efficiently deliver that. The spike in the one customer in particular, growing nearly 20%, created some pretty inefficient service model and delivery schedules for us.

然後，就可能過渡到利潤部分而言，當你快速成長時，肯定會出現一些效率低下的情況，這是在交付過程中無法預料的。是的，我們強調了混合。啤酒少了，無酒精飲料多了，我們的利潤就低了。因此，我們將實現銷售成長，我認為我們只需要弄清楚如何更有效、更有效率地實現這一目標。特別是某位客戶的數量激增了近 20%，這為我們帶來了相當低效的服務模式和交付計畫。

And then there's a little bit of mix related to tariffs, a little bit of a drag on that. So we'll see that kind of level off here quarter to quarter, but that didn't help. So I think somewhere in the neighborhood of $10 million worth of -- all of that was a drag and just our inability to deliver in sequence on time from some of our faster-growing categories and then a bit of a drag on the tariff.

然後還有一點與關稅相關的混合因素，對此有一點拖累。因此，我們會看到這種季度變化趨勢趨於平穩，但這並沒有幫助。所以我認為大約有價值 1000 萬美元的商品——所有這些都是一個拖累，而且我們無法按時按順序交付一些增長較快的類別，然後對關稅也造成了一些拖累。

Okay. Very helpful. And then for my second question, you're on track for a new high watermark on EPS likened with 2021. It's been an oscillating journey since then.

好的。非常有幫助。然後，對於我的第二個問題，與 2021 年相比，您的 EPS 有望創下新高。從那時起，我的旅程就起伏不定。

As I look at the segment distribution, North America is at a high watermark in terms of earnings -- margins, I should say, and I guess, earnings. What about Europe? I mean, Europe's had a good spurt in terms of growth. It's been very consistent. Is there any reason why Europe cannot benefit from a margin expansion standpoint to the same extent North America has relative to what you delivered in 2021?

當我查看細分市場分佈時，我發現北美的利潤處於高位——應該說是利潤率，我想，還有盈利。歐洲怎麼樣？我的意思是，歐洲在成長方面取得了良好的進展。它一直非常一致。有什麼理由可以解釋為什麼歐洲不能從利潤率擴張的角度獲得與北美同等程度的利益（相對於你們 2021 年的交付情況而言）？

Yeah, Ghansham, I would say I wouldn't expect margins to improve, but the operating leverage will be more consistent. We're already operating at pretty high margin. We lost -- if we're able to ever reenter Russia, yes, that was -- those were tremendous margins there. But I think we're going to operate on a sustained mid-single-digit growth basis and flow through operational leverage consistent to that '21, probably more effectively and more efficiently than in any of the other regions. So I'm feeling really good about that.

是的，甘沙姆，我想說我不會期望利潤率會提高，但經營槓桿會更穩定。我們的營運利潤率已經相當高了。我們失敗了——如果我們能夠重新進入俄羅斯的話，是的，那是——那裡的差距是巨大的。但我認為，我們將以持續的中等個位數成長為基礎運營，並透過與 21 世紀一致的營運槓桿進行運營，可能比其他任何地區都更有效、更有效率。所以我對此感覺非常好。

Stefan Diaz, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的史蒂芬·迪亞茲。

I guess maybe just to begin, how have your conversations with customers sort of gone so far regarding their plans around tariffs, their hedging strategies? And have you started discussing 2026 and like potential impacts around increased prices and impact of that on like potential ordering patterns?

我想也許只是開始，您與客戶就他們的關稅計劃和對沖策略進行的對話進展如何？您是否已經開始討論 2026 年以及價格上漲的潛在影響以及其對潛在訂購模式的影響？

Yes, I haven't -- it's a great question. I guess when we get closer to '26 and we see where exactly these things level off, I think those will become clearer. One of the things that's working to our advantage is, I think with the strapped-in consumer, they need cans in their portfolio to push for volume. There's not a lot of price that they continue to pass through. I think you're seeing it kind of across the board.

是的，我沒有——這是一個很好的問題。我想，當我們接近 26 年並且看到這些事情究竟在哪裡趨於平穩時，我認為這些將會變得更加清晰。對我們有利的一點是，我認為，對於手頭拮据的消費者來說，他們需要在產品組合中加入罐裝飲料來增加銷售量。他們繼續傳遞的價格不多。我認為你已經全面地看到了這一點。

And so I'm not worried about pricing and the dynamics that we saw a couple of years ago that really constrained our volume. The multipacks are being pushed. That's because end consumers are strapped and the can's the vehicle for our customers to grow with.

因此，我並不擔心定價以及幾年前我們看到的真正限制我們銷售的動態。多件裝產品正在推廣中。這是因為最終消費者資金緊張，而罐頭是我們客戶成長的工具。

But I haven't had conversations with any of our customers relative to '26. I think everybody is spending time in Washington trying to fight for exclusions and things of that nature and just trying to figure out where the plane is going to land in terms of all the trade deals around the world. But it's a good question. We'll get back to you with probably some more color on the next call.

但我還沒有與任何客戶談論過 26 年的事情。我認為每個人都在華盛頓花時間爭取豁免權和諸如此類的事情，只是想弄清楚飛機在世界各地的所有貿易協議中將降落在哪裡。但這是一個很好的問題。我們會在下次通話時給您回复，可能會提供更多詳細資訊。

Great. That's really helpful. And then I just want to clarify some of the margin headwinds in North America in 2Q, all of that had to do with operational inefficiencies with the higher-than-expected growth. None of that was due to contractual pricing. So you don't really expect this to continue on until like the second half and into 2026, if that's correct?

偉大的。這真的很有幫助。然後，我只想澄清一下北美第二季利潤率面臨的一些阻力，所有這些都與高於預期的成長導致的營運效率低下有關。這些都不是合約定價造成的。所以，您真的不認為這種情況會持續到下半年或 2026 年，如果這是正確的嗎？

Yes, that's a great point. And think about this, it wouldn't necessarily be contractual pricing. But as you see us growing at a faster rate, the categories that, that growth allows for out of alcohol, it's lower margin. And so there's an element there. When we talk about mix, I guess you could talk about the portfolio thinking that, that's price/mix, but it's not contractual in nature in terms of (technical difficulty) going down.

是的，這是一個很好的觀點。想想看，它不一定是合約定價。但如您所見，我們的成長速度較快，而酒精類產品的利潤率較低。因此，那裡有一個元素。當我們談論組合時，我想您可能會談論投資組合，並認為這是價格/組合，但就（技術難度）下降而言，它本質上不是合約性的。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

Phil Ng，傑富瑞集團。

I guess, one of your large competitors talked about how North America demand has been strong and it's been stronger than you expected as well. And they're going to run pretty tight going into next year and don't have much inventory. Curious to get what's your situation in terms of capacity and ability to service that demand and appreciating a lot to still discuss with your customers in 2026. Remind us how you are set up from a contract standpoint? Is there any movement there?

我想，你們的一個大型競爭對手談到了北美的需求一直很強勁，而且比你們預期的還要強勁。進入明年，他們的供應將會非常緊張，庫存也不多了。我很好奇，想知道你們在產能和滿足需求的能力方面的情況如何，也非常感謝你們 2026 年仍能與客戶進行討論。請提醒我們一下從合約角度來看您是如何設定的？那兒有動靜嗎？

And do you kind of hope to kind of at least grow in line with the market next year?

您是否希望明年至少能與市場同步成長？

Yeah, great question. So we do have the new facility that's going to come online in the Northwest. So that will be helpful. So that part of the country for us is really tight. One thing that we're hoping to get a little bit more clarity too, Phil, is, I mean, we have used our Monterrey facility to kind of ship into North America. So if these tariffs persist at the levels they are without some relief valves, and that actually creates even a tighter landscape in the Southwest and Texas in particular.

是的，很好的問題。因此，我們確實有即將在西北地區投入使用的新設施。這將會很有幫助。所以對我們來說，這個地區的局勢確實緊張。菲爾，我們希望更清楚了解的一件事是，我們已經使用蒙特雷工廠將產品運往北美。因此，如果這些關稅持續保持在目前的水平，就沒有任何緩解措施，這實際上會造成西南部和德克薩斯州的情況更加緊張。

So the reality is as we start to go through our plans and our strategic planning process that will be happening here over the next six to eight months, what I expect is that we'll be running full out in all of our facilities, potentially carrying a little bit more inventory to balance that. I mean, we can continue to grow. We did buy the asset in Florida that will help as a relief valve as well. But if we continue to grow at 5%, I think for the next 18, 24 months, we'll have to incrementally probably add a few lines here or there, do some speed up projects. But I think we're comfortable to spend in line or below D&A for our North America business for the next couple of years still.

因此，現實情況是，當我們開始執行未來六到八個月的規劃和策略規劃過程時，​​我預計我們將全力運作所有設施，可能會增加一點庫存來平衡這一點。我的意思是，我們可以繼續成長。我們確實購買了佛羅裡達州的資產，這也將有助於緩解壓力。但如果我們繼續以 5% 的速度成長，我認為在接下來的 18 到 24 個月裡，我們可能必須逐步在這裡或那裡增加幾條生產線，做一些加速專案。但我認為，未來幾年，我們仍願意在北美業務上花費與折舊及攤銷前水平持平或低於折舊及攤銷前水平的資金。

The wildcard is just going to be, can we use those facilities in Mexico as relief valves as we historically have, right, for the last decade or so.

唯一的問題是，我們能否像過去十年左右一樣，將墨西哥的這些設施用作安全閥。

Okay. That's helpful. And earnings --

好的。這很有幫助。和收益--

Yes, we'll grow in line or ahead of the market, depending on somewhat the success of our customers. But right now, a couple of our large strategic partners have certainly got a winning recipe, and they believe that will continue here for the foreseeable future.

是的，我們將與市場同步成長或領先市場成長，這在一定程度上取決於我們客戶的成功。但目前，我們的一些大型策略夥伴確實已經找到了成功的秘訣，他們相信在可預見的未來，而這種秘訣將會繼續維持下去。

Okay. That's a great backdrop, running full out and customers winning. So that's great.

好的。這是一個很棒的背景，全力以赴，客戶獲勝。這太棒了。

Different than a year ago.

與一年前不同。

Indeed. From an earnings perspective, South America was pretty strong, good to see that improvement. How is Argentina shaping up? And when you look at Brazil, a little softer to start the year, but you sounded pretty upbeat in the back half, certainly a lot of noise on trade flow, uncertainty on that front. So just give us some line of sight on what gives you confidence that the back half would be better in Brazil as well.

的確。從獲利角度來看，南美洲表現相當強勁，很高興看到這種改善。阿根廷目前情況如何？看看巴西，今年年初經濟略顯疲軟，但下半年情況似乎相當樂觀，當然貿易流動方面存在著許多噪音和不確定性。那麼請告訴我們是什麼讓您相信後半段在巴西的表現會更好。

Yes. I think what happens in Brazil, so take Brazil, obviously, what we benefited from greatly in the second quarter is almost not making any money in Chile and Argentina in some of those places, and they're really nice mix for us. So that recovery contributed to sort of an easier comp, I would say, in the second quarter year over year.

是的。我認為巴西的情況是這樣的，以巴西為例，顯然，我們在第二季度受益匪淺，而智利和阿根廷等一些地方幾乎沒有賺到錢，這對我們來說是非常好的組合。因此，我想說，這種復甦使得第二季的年比業績更加容易。

And then heading specifically outlining Brazil, I think some of our competitors even commented on this, like we're with -- we have a huge concentration with one customer. So as they go, we go. And typically, what happens is over a 12-month period, you more or less reflect the market. And if the market grows sort of in that 3%-ish range in Brazil for the year, that means our partner is going to have to grow at a little faster rate than that in the back half of the year, and they have plans to do that, and they've demonstrated that they do that pretty consistently. So that's the comfort, and that's the belief.

然後特別概述巴西，我認為我們的一些競爭對手甚至對此發表了評論，就像我們一樣 - 我們非常專注於一個客戶。所以他們走，我們也走。通常情況下，在 12 個月的時間裡，你或多或少會反映出市場的情況。如果巴西市場今年的成長率在 3% 左右，那就意味著我們的合作夥伴必須在下半年以比這更快的速度成長，他們有計劃這樣做，而且他們已經證明他們確實在持續這樣做。這就是安慰，這就是信念。

We'll be with them here two weeks from now to get more clarity on that, but they're really confident that, that trend will continue and persist. And then everything else in and around Brazil is continuing to perform.

兩週後我們將與他們一起對此進行更清晰的了解，但他們確實有信心，這種趨勢將會持續下去。巴西及其周邊地區的其他一切都在繼續發展。

It's always wait and see on Argentina, but I think the leadership down there has got them on the right trajectory. I think they have -- it will be important to see what happens relative to the crop performance down there, but everything seems to be largely on track in that economy. And as long as we're just incrementally growing and recovering at a steady clip and it's not backsliding, we're going to be in good shape to deliver the back half of the year.

對於阿根廷，我們總是持觀望態度，但我認為那裡的領導層已經讓他們走上了正確的軌道。我認為他們已經做到了——重要的是觀察那裡的農作物表現如何，但那裡的經濟似乎一切基本上都步入正軌。只要我們穩定成長和復甦，不出現倒退，我們就能以良好的狀態完成下半年的任務。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

So in terms -- and congrats on the quarter in terms of the progress. So the growth for North and Central America being at the top end of your range, which would be around 3% for the year. How much of that is predicated on what you're seeing right now in your customer mix and their strategies? And if some of your other customers start to do the same thing that the guys who are winning do, what would that mean for your volume growth? And if you could give us a little bit of color in terms of what you mean by connected promotion?

所以就進展而言——祝賀本季的進展。因此，北美和中美洲的成長率處於您預期範圍的上限，即全年成長率約為 3%。其中有多少是基於您目前所看到的客戶組合及其策略？如果您的其他一些客戶也開始採取與獲勝者相同的做法，這對您的銷售成長意味著什麼？您能否向我們稍微解釋一下您所說的關聯推廣是什麼意思？

And then I had a quick follow-on on aluminum.

然後我快速地跟進了鋁的問題。

Yes. So when we look at the broad -- let me start with the latter part first because, yes, I should probably clarify this. There is the same amount of promotional activity happening just in terms of price changes and rev mix plans and buy one, get one freeze, et cetera. But the concentration of purchases within those windows has accelerated by the end consumer. So it's not that there's more promotional activity.

是的。因此，當我們從廣義上看時——讓我先從後一部分開始，因為，是的，我應該澄清這一點。僅在價格變化、混合銷售計劃和買一送一凍結等方面，促銷活動的數量都是相同的。但最終消費者在這些窗口內的購買集中度已經加快。所以不是有更多的促銷活動。

It's that the customers, clearly, the end consumer must be weakening and they're looking at those opportunities and buying multipacks at an accelerated rate versus the prior couple of years. So that's what's happening, and that's what's contributing to probably a little bit more volume growth than anyone anticipated in the first half of the year.

顯然，最終消費者的勢頭正在減弱，他們正在尋找這些機會，與前幾年相比，他們購買多包裝產品的速度正在加快。這就是正在發生的事情，這也是導致今年上半年銷售成長可能比任何人預期的都要多一點的原因。

Really, it would be -- to your first question, really, it would be in and around beer. I mean, is there going to be recovery. One of our customers, in particular, is struggling just because of the tariffs. So unless that relieves itself, that -- we're not anticipating greater performance than the 3% top in. And even with that, George, we'll be fine because we're underutilizing our Monterrey facility right now for that customer.

確實，對於您的第一個問題，確實，它會與啤酒有關。我的意思是，會出現復甦嗎？特別是我們的一位客戶，僅僅因為關稅就陷入了困境。因此，除非這種情況自行緩解，否則我們預計業績不會超過 3% 的最高水準。即使如此，喬治，我們也不會有問題，因為我們目前沒有充分利用蒙特雷工廠為該客戶提供服務。

So if that particular instance happens, we're good, right? We'll be able to ship, we'll be able to deliver even in a more efficient manner.

所以如果那個特定情況發生，我們就沒事了，對吧？我們將能夠發貨，甚至能夠以更有效的方式交付。

If growth persists with a couple of our customers in the 15% to 20% range, we'll be living hand to mouth. But eventually, you'll get out of peak season, and there'll be more efficient delivery patterns in the back half of the year. But right now, it's tight. We're living hand to mouth. I think we can deliver -- we still have some room to grow in facilities specifically that are adjacent to breweries, right, where they've been underperforming.

如果我們的幾位客戶的成長率持續保持在 15% 到 20% 的範圍內，那麼我們將只能勉強維持生計。但最終，您將走出旺季，在下半年將會出現更有效率的交付模式。但現在，情況很緊張。我們的生活僅夠糊口。我認為我們可以實現這一點——我們仍然有一些成長空間，特別是在啤酒廠附近的設施，而這些設施的表現一直不佳。

So if that category rebounds, that's not a difficult solve for us. It's if there's even more activity in some of our strategic partners in the non-alc or the CSD space, that will be -- that will create more inefficient patterns. And then we'll just have to get out ahead of it for next year and probably carry a little bit more inventory if this is the direction of flight that we're going to see growth at this rate for a persistent manner.

因此，如果該類別反彈，這對我們來說不是一個難解決的問題。如果我們的一些策略夥伴在非酒精或碳酸軟性飲料領域進行更多活動，那麼就會產生更低效的模式。然後，如果這是飛行的方向，我們必須在明年取得領先，並且可能會增加一點庫存，我們將看到這種速度的持續增長。

I appreciate that review. The second question, to the extent that you can estimate and feel comfortable talking about it live, Mike, on a call, where do you think the -- your average large customer, however you want to define that, their embedded aluminum price is relative to sort of spot market, if we look at Midwest premium? And when would we expect time-wise that to basically converge. So basically, the question on the question, are customers using cans more now because they're hedged? And when does that end?

我很欣賞這個評論。第二個問題，麥克，在您可以估計並且可以輕鬆地在電話中現場談論的範圍內，如果我們看一下中西部溢價，您認為 - 您的普通大客戶，無論您想如何定義它，他們的嵌入式鋁價格相對於現貨市場而言如何？我們預計從時間上來說什麼時候它們會基本收斂。所以基本上，問題是，顧客現在是否更多地使用罐頭，因為他們進行了對沖？那什麼時候結束？

It doesn't sound like you're too worried about that because of where the consumer is for '26, but some thoughts there, and I'll turn it over.

聽起來你並不太擔心這一點，因為消費者對 26 年的狀況有所了解，但我有一些想法，我會再討論一下。

Yeah, you will start to see that here in the second half of the year and into next year. I think it's about a quarter for 12-pack. So how impactful is that on the price sensitivity curve, I think, is the -- it's -- cans are clearly cheaper than PET outside of the 2-liter PET, cheaper than glass still. So if that quarter for a 12-pack creates different buying behaviors, then I think you start to see -- and we saw the beginnings of that. You'll see the 24 packs and the 30 packs and the end consumer being far more conscious on that buy pattern, which then changes the velocity pattern, which changes the lumpiness, right, of your business.

是的，你會在今年下半年和明年開始看到這種情況。我認為 12 包大約是四分之一。那麼，我認為這對價格敏感度曲線有多大影響呢？除了 2 公升 PET 之外，罐子顯然比 PET 便宜，也比玻璃便宜。因此，如果 12 瓶裝啤酒的那個季度創造了不同的購買行為，那麼我認為你就會開始看到——我們也看到了這種情況的開始。您會看到 24 包和 30 包，最終消費者對購買模式的意識更強，這會改變速度模式，從而改變您的業務的不均勻性。

So that to me feels more about what's going to happen than any kind of dramatic shift because of hedges, et cetera.

因此，對我來說，這更多的是預示著將會發生什麼，而不是因為對沖等而發生的任何劇烈轉變。

Understood. I mean, more operational planning on your side, but we'll turn it over.

明白了。我的意思是，你們方面會做出更多的營運規劃，但我們會將其移交。

Correct.

正確的。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)。

Good morning. Dan, earlier, you were -- in talking about sort of North American profitability, I think you called out $10 million in maybe inefficiencies or I don't know exactly the language. But was tariffs a smaller part of that $10 million? Or was it separate? And then does that go down in 3Q?

早安.丹，之前，您在談論北美盈利能力時，我認為您提到了 1000 萬美元的低效率，或者我不知道確切的語言。但關稅只佔這 1000 萬美元的一小部分嗎？還是說它們是分開的？那麼第三季的情況會下降嗎？

And then just a related question, does Florida can kind of weigh on profitability meaningfully in 2Q? Or just how did that asset perform versus expectations?

然後還有一個相關的問題，佛羅裡達州是否會對第二季度的獲利能力產生重大影響？或該資產的表現與預期相比如何？

Yes. Thanks for the question. Florida can, probably think in the neighborhood of like $1 million to $2 million of -- we'll start to get to kind of breakeven by Q4, and then it will be incremental profit for us in '26. The tariffs, probably $2 million to $3 million of that $10 million impact. So not a lot.

是的。謝謝你的提問。佛羅裡達州大概可以考慮在 100 萬到 200 萬美元左右——到第四季度，我們將開始實現收支平衡，然後在 26 年實現增量利潤。關稅可能造成 1000 萬美元影響中的 200 萬至 300 萬美元。所以不多。

Yes. That's helpful. And then kind of maybe a broader question. In terms of the impact of One Big Beautiful Bill on your business and thinking maybe especially about bonus depreciation, any kind of broad thoughts about how that could impact you this year, next year?

是的。這很有幫助。然後也許這是一個更廣泛的問題。關於《美麗大法案》對您的業務的影響，尤其是獎金折舊，您能大致想想這會對您今年和明年產生什麼影響嗎？

Thank you. The other Dan will take this one. The short answer is we don't think it's going to change the trajectory much of the effective growth -- tax rate, excuse me. And largely, the benefits are going to come in through the acceleration of the depreciation and a little bit of ability to deduct more but because of the EBITDA limit versus the operating earnings limit. But for the most part, we're still early and really figuring it out, but I don't think it's going to be much of a change for us.

謝謝。另一個丹將接受這個。簡而言之，我們認為它不會改變有效成長的軌跡——稅率，對不起。並且，很大程度上，收益將透過加速折舊和少量的扣除能力來實現，但這是由於 EBITDA 限制與營業利潤限制之間的矛盾。但在大多數情況下，我們還處於早期階段，還在摸索中，但我認為這對我們來說不會有太大的改變。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

瑞穗的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯 (Edlain Rodriguez)。

Dan, you've heard some beverage companies talking about the impact of immigration enforcement on certain customers. Like, are you prepping for a potential demand slowdown in certain markets? Or is there a disconnect between what's being said and what you're seeing out there from your customers?

丹，你聽到一些飲料公司談論移民執法對某些顧客的影響。例如，您是否正在為某些市場可能出現的需求放緩做準備？或者，您所說的話與您從客戶那裡看到的情況之間存在脫節嗎？

Yes. This is a very difficult analysis. So I'll give you the optimistic viewpoint on this challenged issue, social issue. So there's more consumption happening online, multipack and in grocery channel, multipack, less at the C-store channel. So that has a real impact for some of our customers that sell and have an overwhelming profit pool within the C-store channel because folks are concerned that ICE is going to be there, so it could be a benefit for the can.

是的。這是一個非常困難的分析。因此，我會對這個具有挑戰性的問題、社會問題給予樂觀的看法。因此，在線上、多件裝和雜貨通路的消費較多，而便利商店通路的消費較少。因此，這對我們的一些在 C-store 通路銷售並擁有巨大利潤池的客戶產生了真正的影響，因為人們擔心 ICE 會出現在那裡，所以它可能對罐頭有利。

So it's actually the opposite. I'm not thinking about a slowdown, I'm thinking about a continuance of a volume lift with the multipack purchasing the at-home and the grocery channel. Over a longer period of time, absent immigration, our economy doesn't work without immigration in some balanced form. But for right now, I would gather there's probably a bit of a benefit absent a headwind in the way you characterize that.

所以事實恰恰相反。我並沒有考慮經濟放緩，而是考慮透過家庭購買和雜貨管道繼續提升銷售。從長遠來看，如果沒有移民，我們的經濟就無法以某種平衡的形式運作。但就目前而言，我認為按照您的說法，如果沒有阻力，那麼可能會有一點好處。

Okay. Got it. Got it. One quick one on Europe. Again, continues to perform well.

好的。知道了。知道了。簡單談談歐洲。再次，繼續表現良好。

Can you talk about how balanced supply/demand is in that market and whether some new supply might be needed to meet the growing demand that we're seeing there?

您能談談該市場的供需平衡嗎？是否需要一些新的供應來滿足我們在那裡看到的日益增長的需求？

Yes. It's a land of opportunity. And I think all of our competitors are saying the same thing because of the underpenetration in cans, the carbon footprint of glass that we're capitalizing on. We put in a few big boxes, big facilities, and we're continuing to build those out. So there's incremental capacity that's being added to step into exactly what you described, the sustained growth at this mid-single-digit level, which will have to be supported.

是的。這是一片充滿機會的土地。我認為我們所有的競爭對手都在說同樣的話，因為我們正在利用罐頭滲透率不足和玻璃的碳足跡。我們安置了幾個大箱子、大型設施，並且正在繼續建造它們。因此，為了達到您所描述的水平，需要增加增量容量，即保持中等個位數的持續增長，這一點必須得到支持。

We're starting to hear some announcements from other competitors that they're adding some capacity, line by line. But if we continue to grow at the rate we're growing, we're going to have to move some of our projects probably to the left and do things by next year, '27, '28. All of that will still be within our capital envelope that we've outlined. But yes, there's going to be a need for capacity adds if the market continues to grow mid-single digits.

我們開始聽到其他競爭對手宣布他們正在逐步增加產能。但如果我們繼續以目前的速度成長，我們可能就必須將一些項目向左移動，並在明年、27 年、28 年之前完成。所有這些仍將在我們所概述的資本範圍內。但是，如果市場繼續以中等個位數成長，那麼確實需要增加容量。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬許·斯佩克特。

It's Anojja Shah sitting in for Josh. We kind of touched on this a bit, and I know cans have performed well historically in recessions as consumers tend to trade down, eat more at home. But what's the outlook if inflation goes up? Because we still don't know the full tariff impact yet. How have cans performed during high inflation times? What are the puts and takes we should be thinking about?

替喬希 (Josh) 的是阿諾賈沙 (Anojja Shah)。我們稍微談到了這一點，我知道罐頭食品在經濟衰退時期表現良好，因為消費者傾向於減少消費，並更多地在家吃飯。但如果通膨上升，前景會怎麼樣？因為我們還不知道關稅的全部影響。在高通膨時期，罐頭的表現如何？我們應該考慮哪些利弊？

Well, I think we did not do well the last couple of years during that inflationary pressure. So it's a bit of a nuanced question. You're on to it. It's like we're recession-resistant, not inflation resistant. So when our customers need to take price to offset additional input costs, that's a direct volume headwind to us, so we saw that.

嗯，我認為在過去幾年通膨壓力下我們做得併不好。所以這是一個有點微妙的問題。你成功了。就好像我們能抵禦經濟衰退，但不能抵禦通貨膨脹。因此，當我們的客戶需要透過價格來抵消額外的投入成本時，這對我們來說是一個直接的銷售阻力，我們看到了這一點。

But you're at a different point in time in the economy where either the end consumer, if they can't afford to pay for those higher input costs, then everybody is going to -- everybody -- our customers and us are going to struggle. And then that gets you back into the recessionary environment.

但現在經濟情勢已經發生了變化，如果最終消費者無法承擔更高的投入成本，那麼每個人——每個人——我們的客戶和我們都會陷入困境。然後你又回到了經濟衰退的環境。

And in that, what we're seeing exactly, to your point, it's like there's going to be concentrated promotional activity and buying during that particular time. Our customers have fixed costs, we have fixed costs. So I think there's going to have to be a balance here.

正如您所說，我們看到的就是在那個特定時期會有集中的促銷活動和購買活動。我們的客戶有固定成本，我們也有固定成本。所以我認為這裡必須有一個平衡。

But yes, we're -- with hamburger at $10 a pound, that's not a good environment for long. And we're benefiting from it now, but no one is going to be -- no one's going to be benefiting from that particular environment for a while if interest rates don't come down and things don't stabilize a bit. Good question.

但是的，我們現在——漢堡的價格是每磅 10 美元，這不是一個長期的好環境。我們現在從中受益，但如果利率不下降、情況不穩定，那麼在一段時間內沒有人會從這種特定環境中受益。好問題。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

Dan, when you take a step back and assess where you've been across your geographic portfolio and where you want to be, what have been the two best surprises, what have been the two worst, just given all the puts and takes that we've seen, perhaps positive in Europe, a little bit more mixed in the US? Just where do you kind of stand as you -- as we're entering the second half of '25 into 2026?

丹，當您退一步評估您的地理投資組合的現狀和您想要達到的目標時，最好的兩個驚喜是什麼，最糟糕的兩個驚喜是什麼？考慮到我們所看到的所有利弊，歐洲的情況或許是正面的，而美國的情況則好壞參半？當我們從 2025 年下半年進入 2026 年時，您的處境如何？

Yes, for this year, in particular, I think, is the question. Is that correct?

是的，我認為，特別是今年，這是一個問題。對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, yes. No, I think Europe is mostly in line with where we expected. our strategic partners are doing well. Like beer is not doing as well, and we have a higher customer concentration in CSD and energy, and those have really outperformed and kept us probably in line or a little ahead of the market. So that continues to be a good story.

是的，是的。不，我認為歐洲的情況基本上符合我們的預期。我們的策略夥伴做得很好。例如啤酒的銷售量不太好，而我們在碳酸飲料和能源方面的客戶集中度更高，這些產品的表現確實優於市場，可能讓我們與市場保持一致或略微領先。所以這仍然是一個好故事。

I think South America is a mixed bag. Brazil has underperformed. Some of the other countries have overperformed. I think that balances out as we move into the back half of the year because we have such a customer concentration with one particular player down there, and they will certainly not continue to lose share in the marketplace. They've demonstrated that historically.

我認為南美洲的情況好壞參半。巴西的表現不佳。一些其他國家的表現則更為出色。我認為，隨著我們進入下半年，這種情況會得到平衡，因為我們的客戶集中在一個特定的參與者身上，他們肯定不會繼續在市場上失去份額。他們已經用歷史證明了這一點。

And then I think North America is -- beer is not as good. as we anticipated, there are pockets of -- I think American beer is doing okay. It's not domestic anymore, apparently. And I think the energy market has certainly outpaced what we anticipated. So that's kind of the backdrop.

然後我認為北美的啤酒不太好。正如我們預期的那樣，有一些地方——我認為美國啤酒做得還不錯。顯然，它不再是國內的了。我認為能源市場的發展確實超出了我們的預期。這就是背景。

All in all, it's better, net better. And I think cans are winning, so that's a good part. I think we finally hit a bit more of a recessionary window, which the can has a better playbook for sustained performance in that. And so we're more bullish probably in the second half of the year than the balance of most packaging companies.

總而言之，它更好了，非常好。我認為罐頭食品正在獲勝，所以這是一件好事。我認為我們最終會進入衰退期，我們可以有更好的劇本來維持這種衰退期的持續表現。因此，我們對下半年的前景可能比大多數包裝公司更樂觀。

Got it. And just if I may parlay that question into some of your commentary. At your Analyst Day, you spoke about 2% to 3% volume growth, the 2 op leverage and the 4 to 6 share count, as you recall. The Street is pretty much already there in terms of like 10%, 11% EPS growth. I mean, where would you be assessing on -- in terms of volume?

知道了。我可以將這個問題融入您的一些評論中嗎？您還記得，在分析師日上，您談到了 2% 到 3% 的銷售成長、2 個營運槓桿以及 4 到 6 個股票數量。華爾街基本上已經預測每股盈餘將成長 10% 或 11%。我的意思是，從數量上來說，您會如何評估？

And you kind of hit on this for like one geography or two. But do you see yourself kind of trending towards the higher end of those ranges? Or like what would be the other puts and takes as we think about the algorithm you put out, I think, last June?

您可能會在一個或兩個地理位置上遇到這種情況。但您是否認為自己會趨向於這些範圍的高端？或者當我們考慮您去年六月提出的演算法時，其他的投入和產出是什麼？

Yes. Good question. So we're definitely at the higher end of that range. Some of this does have to do with your customer portfolio. And a lot of our customers are doing extraordinarily well right now.

是的。好問題。所以我們肯定處於該範圍的高端。其中一些確實與您的客戶組合有關。我們的許多客戶現在都表現得非常好。

So we're going to eclipse the higher end of the range. We're also very cognizant in the last couple of years, we've been at repositioning a bit of our portfolio to categories. We were much heavier in beer. So we've repositioned a little bit of that. And so we're starting to see the tailwinds of that.

因此，我們將超越該範圍的高端。我們也非常清楚，在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在將部分投資組合重新定位到不同的類別。我們喝了很多啤酒。因此我們對其做了一些重新定位。因此，我們開始看到其順風。

We'll continue to see the tailwinds of that into '26 and '27. I'm not going to move off of the two to three right now because the world is certainly uncertain. But we're -- this year, we'll definitely be at the high end of that and over, and it's looking good for next year as well at this point.

我們將在 2026 年和 2027 年繼續看到這一趨勢的順風。我現在不會放棄二到三這個目標，因為世界確實充滿不確定性。但是我們——今年，我們肯定會達到這個水平的高端，而且目前看來明年的情況也很好。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Can you talk about your rates of volume change in consumer soft drinks and beer in the different geographies and in the aggregate?

您能否談談不同地區和整體的軟性飲料和啤酒消費量變化率？

Yes. So I think beer in South America is continuing to grow at a slower rate because of Brazil and the inflationary pressures there, but there's continued to be growth. The beer growth is flattish to slightly up in Europe, probably growing at a slower rate than it has historically. CSD and energy is growing at a faster rate than historically in that part of the world. I think there's more competition.

是的。因此，我認為，由於巴西和那裡的通膨壓力，南美啤酒的成長率將繼續放緩，但仍在持續成長。歐洲的啤酒銷售成長持平或略有上升，成長速度可能比歷史上慢。在世界這一地區，海水淡化和能源的成長速度比歷史上任何時候都要快。我認為競爭更加激烈。

There was an acquisition made of some of the Pepsi bottlers by a big brewer a year ago in Europe, and they're -- in the markets that they're competing against, they're 1 of our partners, and so we're challenged along with them.

一年前，歐洲一家大型啤酒製造商收購了百事可樂的部分瓶裝企業，在他們競爭的市場中，他們是我們的合作夥伴之一，因此，我們與他們一起面臨挑戰。

Okay. Great. And when you think about the profitability of the North and Central American beverages, should it jump because the incremental costs that you're feeling seem to be more transitory?

好的。偉大的。當您考慮北美和中美洲飲料的盈利能力時，它是否應該上漲，因為您認為增量成本似乎更暫時？

Yes. With the exception of let's see how -- yes, it's a good question. The only question mark I have right now is, is volume going to continue at this rate? Where does it settle out? And then the tariffs because we've all been somewhat reliant on supply patterns to use those plants in Mexico to ship north.

是的。除了讓我們看看如何——是的，這是一個好問題。我現在唯一的疑問是，交易量是否會以這種速度持續下去？它在哪裡定居？然後是關稅，因為我們都在某種程度上依賴供應模式，使用墨西哥的工廠將產品運往北方。

So if we can't do that anymore, I think there's probably a little bit of a fixed cost burden that's a drag on the supply chain landscape. We will be in a better spot once our plant in the Northwest comes up and is running. So I think the volume is great.

因此，如果我們不能再這樣做，我認為可能會有一點固定成本負擔，這對供應鏈格局造成拖累。一旦我們西北地區的工廠建成並投入運營，我們的處境就會更好。所以我認為音量很棒。

The mix of where that volume is coming from. When it's in nonalcohol, it's a little bit less profitable because of the price point the end consumer consumes of. So for us, I think we really like the trajectory 18 months out on all of this when we have our new facility and things are operating in a more efficient normalized freight pattern. And let's hope that cooler heads prevail on some of the tariffs and things of that nature. So yes, I think the trajectory -- I'm optimistic.

此音量的來源混合。當它是非酒精飲料時，由於最終消費者消費的價格點，它的利潤會稍微低一些。因此，對我們來說，我認為我們真的很喜歡 18 個月後的軌跡，屆時我們將擁有新設施，並且一切將以更有效率的標準化貨運模式運作。我們希望大家能夠冷靜地看待一些關稅和類似問題。所以是的，我認為這個軌跡——我很樂觀。

I don't know about the next six to nine months in particular, but I think your point is valid.

我不太了解未來六到九個月的具體情況，但我認為你的觀點是正確的。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC.

阿倫·維斯瓦納坦，RBC。

I just wanted to ask about the -- I hope you guys are well. I just wanted to ask about the kind of the EBIT algorithm. I know that margins have been under pressure here. And so maybe you can just discuss your thoughts on returning -- or that 2:1 kind of EBIT leverage on top line growth? And also, you mentioned -- so goes, your exposure to 1 customer, so those -- your exposure or your performance.

我只是想問一下——我希望你們都很好。我只是想問一下 EBIT 演算法的種類。我知道這裡的利潤率一直面臨壓力。那麼，也許您可以討論一下您對回報的看法——或者 2:1 的息稅前利潤槓桿對營業收入成長的影響？而且，您也提到了—您對 1 位客戶的曝光度，也就是您的曝光度或您的表現。

So I guess when you think about that portfolio of customers that you have, how do you think about volumes evolving, I guess, in North America as you look out maybe over the next 6 to 12 months?

因此，我想，當您考慮您擁有的客戶組合時，您認為未來 6 到 12 個月內北美的銷售將如何變化？

Yes. The customer concentration that I talked about was South America, in particular. We're feeling good about the trajectory of [Light]. We've done some repositioning of our portfolio to -- and you'll see that over the next 18 months as well. So we're moving to kind of [less beer]

是的。我談到的客戶集中地特別是南美洲。我們對[光]。我們對投資組合進行了一些重新定位——您也會在接下來的 18 個月內看到這一點。所以我們正在轉向[少喝啤酒]

Candidly, we had probably overindexed into beer. And so we're making that pivot. And those are the categories and the brands and the areas that have a little bit more tailwind for the future. So we're encouraged about that.

坦白說，我們可能對啤酒的依賴程度過高了。因此我們正在做出這項轉變。這些類別、品牌和領域在未來會更有優勢。所以我們對此感到鼓舞。

The EBIT algorithm, we have two things that we're that we called out last year heading into this year that are non-repeats. And that's the interest income for carrying the cash from the aerospace transaction. So that's kind of mid-$40 million impact. And then for Q3 last year, we had nearly $20 million of insurance proceeds that came through our PHC business. So absent that, yes, we're right in the 2:1 algorithm.

EBIT 演算法，我們有兩件事是我們去年提到的，今年不會重複。這就是航空航天交易現金的利息收入。所以這影響大約在 4000 萬美元左右。去年第三季度，我們透過 PHC 業務獲得了近 2,000 萬美元的保險收益。所以，是的，我們的 2:1 演算法是正確的。

Those -- we still may be able to hit that and offset that $60 million, but that's -- so we're right in spitting this into the 2:1 algorithm. And when we talk about it, we talk about it enterprise-wide. So you'll have timing and shifts and we're running this more as a portfolio and as an enterprise as opposed to being laser-focused on the 2 and 1 in each region. Over time, the 2 and 1 in region is what we're shooting for and then managing our portfolio to ensure we're getting back value to shareholders in a more consistent manner by managing the portfolio is the thought process.

那些 — — 我們仍然可能能夠達到這個目標並抵消 6000 萬美元，但是 — — 所以我們將其納入 2:1 演算法是正確的。當我們談論它時，我們談論的是整個企業範圍的。因此，您將有時間和轉變，我們更多地將其作為投資組合和企業來運營，而不是專注於每個地區的 2 和 1。隨著時間的推移，我們的目標是在地區內實現 2 和 1，然後管理我們的投資組合，以確保透過管理投資組合以更一致的方式為股東帶來價值，這就是我們的思維過程。

Okay. And if I could just follow up on the category mix comment. So was that also -- was that North America based? And if so, maybe how do you see your nonalcoholic, alcoholic beverage exposure trending? Would you say that you were maybe 40% alcohol, and that's trending down lower to the 30% range? Or maybe you can just frame that opportunity for us?

好的。如果我可以跟進類別混合評論的話。那麼這也是──以北美為基地嗎？如果是這樣，那麼您如何看待非酒精飲料和酒精飲料的接觸趨勢？您是否認為您的體內酒精含量可能為 40%，並且呈下降趨勢，降至 30% 左右？或者也許您可以為我們創造這個機會？

I think you're largely there with that trajectory of Light moving from kind of 40% to 30% would be optimal over time. Yes, I think that's more of the -- I don't want to talk too much about our strategy, but that's -- at a high level, that's the thinking.

我認為，隨著時間的推移，光的軌跡從 40% 移動到 30% 將是最佳的。是的，我認為這更多的是——我不想談論太多我們的策略，但那是——從高層次來看，這就是我們的想法。

Michael Roxland, Truist.

邁克爾·羅克克蘭，Truist。

This is Nico Piccini on for Mike. I apologize if this is repetitive. I was joining from another call. But in 4Q, I think you had mentioned that you had over like 85% of your 2026 volumes under contract. I was wondering if you could give us an update on where that stands currently and then where 2027 volumes are?

我是 Nico Piccini，代替 Mike 發言。如果重複的話我深感抱歉。我剛從另一個通話加入。但在第四季度，我想您曾提到過，您已完成 2026 年合約銷量的 85% 以上。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹目前的情況以及 2027 年的銷售情況？

Yes. '27 is still a bit early. I'd say 2026 for North America in particular, is just slightly north of 90%. And we have one contract that's fairly sizable that comes due in '27 for North America. So you're probably 75% in '27 that's under contract.

是的。 27 年還是有點早。我想說，對於北美來說，2026 年這一比例將略高於 90%。我們還有一份金額相當大的合同，將於 27 年在北美到期。因此，27 年大概有 75% 的合約是在合約範圍內的。

So we've really done a nice job of future-proofing the business and kind of repositioning some mix and some category movement. And then one of our big partners, that contract comes due, but we're feeling good that we're going to land that in a good spot for '27 and beyond.

因此，我們在確保業務未來發展以及重新定位某些組合和某些類別變動方面確實做得很好。然後，我們的一個大合作夥伴的合約即將到期，但我們感覺很好，我們將在 27 年及以後取得良好的結果。

Got it. And then just quickly on -- was there any manufacturing efficiency that's contributed in 2Q ahead of expectations? And how do you think about efficiency gains going forward?

知道了。然後簡單說一下──第二季的製造效率是否有超出預期的貢獻？您如何看待未來的效率提升？

Yes. I think the plants are running well. We're about 18 months into our Ball Business System. You saw nice improvement in South America. Our ability to kind of deliver this higher-than-expected growth in Europe is largely attributed to the plants running well.

是的。我認為這些工廠運作良好。我們的 Ball 業務系統已經運作了大約 18 個月。您看到南美洲取得了顯著的進步。我們能夠在歐洲實現高於預期的成長，很大程度上歸功於工廠的良好運作。

It was a bit choppy in North America, but largely because we weren't able to use Monterrey to its full extent in Mexico because of the tariffs and then just some acceleration in a couple of areas where we had to convert to different can sizes to keep pace with the growth. So in the short term, I'd say we underperformed in North America, but a little bit more stable outlook here, and then we will lift up.

北美市場有點不穩定，但主要是因為關稅問題，我們無法在墨西哥充分利用蒙特雷市場，而且在幾個地區，我們必須轉換到不同尺寸的罐子，以跟上成長的步伐。因此，從短期來看，我認為我們在北美的表現不佳，但這裡的前景會稍微穩定一些，然後我們就會提升。

Our goal longer term was at, I think, at the Investor Day a year ago, was to kind of flow through 50% of our gross savings. And then we're still on track. You'll see last year, we were able to benefit from a lot of the fixed cost savings from some of the plant and facility closures. We're navigating a lot of supply chain challenges because of the accelerated growth here in North America, a bit of the tariffs. We've been able to offset that and continue to keep our EPS guidance, if not raise it as we just did.

我認為，在一年前的投資者日，我們的長期目標是將我們的總儲蓄的 50% 投入使用。然後我們仍然在正軌上。您會看到，去年，我們從一些工廠和設施關閉中獲得了大量固定成本的節省。由於北美經濟加速成長以及關稅的影響，我們面臨許多供應鏈挑戰。我們已經能夠抵消這一影響，並繼續保持我們的每股收益指導，如果不能像剛才那樣提高的話。

So yes, I'm feeling good. It's really a long-term outlook. I start with safety and quality. Both of those are at world-class levels. So once I see those two metrics in good order, the rest generally follows.

是的，我感覺很好。這確實是一個長遠的眼光。我從安全和品質開始。兩者都是世界一流水準。因此，一旦我看到這兩個指標井然有序，其餘的指標通常也會隨之而來。

And it's awfully difficult in peak season to look at kind of where you are. But I think when we reflect back at the end of the year, we'll be able to point to some really nice performance in the plants across the globe.

在旺季時，很難知道自己身在何處。但我認為，當我們在年底回顧時，我們將能夠指出全球各地工廠的一些非常好的表現。

Richard Carlson, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的理查卡爾森。

Standing in for Gabe Hajde this morning. So most of our questions have been answered. Thank you for the detail so far. But I guess one thing we wanted to ask was about scrap metal pricing and how that has been impacting you?

今天早上代替 Gabe Hajde。因此我們的大部分問題都已得到解答。感謝您迄今為止提供的詳細資訊。但我想我們想問的一件事是關於廢金屬定價以及它對您有何影響？

It's really negligible. Most of our contracts, especially on the tolling, that's controlled by our customer. We're keeping an eye on it. Obviously, as tariffs increase, that scrap market is going to increase at some point as well. It already has a bit.

實在是微不足道。我們的大部分合同，尤其是收費合同，都是由我們的客戶控制的。我們正在密切關注此事。顯然，隨著關稅的提高，廢品市場在某個時候也會成長。已經有一點了。

And then the other thing is you already have such a high recycled content number -- there's been a bit of pressure on that market already. So people have gone out and gone long in a number of areas, especially within our particular marketplace where we're so heavily dependent on that processed aluminum coil at higher recycled content. So we rely heavily on our supply base to help manage that.

另一件事是，你已經擁有如此高的回收內容數量——這個市場已經面臨一些壓力。因此，人們在多個領域進行了廣泛的投資，特別是在我們特定的市場中，我們嚴重依賴回收率較高的加工鋁捲。因此，我們嚴重依賴我們的供應基地來幫助管理這一點。

But it's a good question, something certainly we're keeping an eye out, but it hasn't had a negative impact. We're more concerned about -- candidly, we're more concerned about the demand side of tariffs, in general, large across the economy than we are about any kind of isolated metal market at this point.

但這是一個很好的問題，我們當然會密切關注，但它並沒有產生負面影響。坦白說，我們更關心的是關稅的需求方，整體而言，對整個經濟的影響比目前任何孤立的金屬市場都要大。

All right, Christine. With that, we'll look forward to talking with you all in 100 days or so. Hope the balance of your summer goes well.

好的，克里斯汀。因此，我們期待在大約 100 天後與大家交談。希望你的暑假過得順利。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。