Ball Corp (BALL) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Ball Corporation third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

各位好，歡迎參加波爾公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

再次提醒，本次會議正在錄影。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Brandon Potthoff, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

現在，我很高興向大家介紹主持人，投資者關係主管布蘭登·波特霍夫。謝謝您，先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Christine. Good morning, everyone. This is Ball Corporation's conference call regarding the company's third-quarter 2025 results.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。各位早安。這是波爾公司關於公司 2025 年第三季業績的電話會議。

The information provided during this call will contain forward-looking statements. Actual results or outcomes may differ materially from those that may be expressed or implied. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made today.

本次電話會議中提供的資訊將包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果或成效可能與明示或暗示的結果或成效有重大差異。我們不承擔更新今天所作任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Some factors that could cause the results or outcomes to differ are described in the company's latest Form 10-K, our most recent earnings release and Form 8-K and in other company SEC filings as well as company news releases. If you do not already have our earnings release, it is available on our website at ball.com. Information regarding the use of non-GAAP financial measures may also be found in the notes section of today's earnings release.

可能導致結果或業績出現差異的一些因素已在公司最新的 10-K 表格、我們最近的收益報告和 8-K 表格以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中以及公司新聞稿中進行了描述。如果您尚未收到我們的獲利報告，請造訪我們的網站 ball.com 取得。有關使用非公認會計準則財務指標的信息，也可在今天發布的盈利報告的註釋部分找到。

In addition, the release includes a summary of non-comparable items as well as reconciliation of comparable net earnings and diluted earnings per share calculations. References to net sales and comparable operating earnings in today's release and call do not include the company's former aerospace business. Prior year-to-date net earnings attributable to the corporation and comparable net earnings do include the performance of the company's former aerospace business through the sale date of February 16, 2024.

此外，該公告還包括不可比較項目的摘要以及可比淨收益和稀釋後每股收益計算的調節表。今天發布的新聞稿和電話會議中提到的淨銷售額和可比營業利潤不包括公司之前的航空航天業務。歸屬於公司的上一年同期淨收益和可比淨收益包括公司前航空航太業務截至 2024 年 2 月 16 日出售日期的業績。

I would now like to turn the call over to our CEO, Dan Fisher.

現在我想把電話交給我們的執行長丹費雪。

Thank you, Brandon.

謝謝你，布蘭登。

Today, I'm joined on our call by Dan Rabbitt, SVP and Interim CFO. I will provide some brief introductory remarks and discuss third-quarter financial performance. Dan will then touch on key metrics for 2025 and we will finish up with closing comments and Q&A.

今天，我邀請到了高級副總裁兼臨時財務長 Dan Rabbitt 參加我們的電話會議。我將作一些簡短的介紹性發言，並討論第三季的財務表現。接下來，丹將談到 2025 年的關鍵指標，最後我們將進行總結演講和問答環節。

First, I want to take a minute to highlight the amazing work our employees and teams have done to give back to their communities. During the third quarter, I'm proud to share that Ball employees donated over 7,000 hours of their time across 19 countries in support of 116 charities. This past September was also our annual Who We Are Month where we celebrated our unmatched culture and talented people that help us and our customers navigate complexity and provide innovative solutions that enable us to win. I want to thank all of our employees for devoting time to uplift our communities and participating in Who We Are Month.

首先，我想花一點時間重點介紹我們的員工和團隊為回饋社區所做的出色工作。第三季度，我很自豪地宣布，Ball 公司的員工在 19 個國家/地區貢獻了超過 7000 小時的時間，以支持 116 個慈善機構。今年九月也是我們一年一度的「關於我們」月，我們慶祝了我們無與倫比的企業文化和才華橫溢的員工，他們幫助我們和我們的客戶應對複雜局面，並提供創新解決方案，使我們能夠取得成功。我要感謝我們所有的員工抽出時間來提升我們社區的福祉，並積極參與「我們是誰」月活動。

I also want to thank all of our employees for our great third-quarter business performance. Beverage can volumes grew 4.2%. Comparable operating earnings increased 5.1% and comparable diluted earnings per share rose 12.1%. In addition, we have now returned $1.35 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends as of today's call.

我還要感謝我們所有員工，感謝他們為我們第三季出色的業績所做的貢獻。飲料罐銷量成長了 4.2%。同店營業利潤成長 5.1%，同店稀釋後每股收益成長 12.1%。此外，截至今天的電話會議，我們已透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了 13.5 億美元。

This strong performance reinforces our opportunity to deliver record comparable diluted earnings per share record EVA and approach record adjusted free cash flow in 2025, a testament to the strength of our portfolio and disciplined execution.

這一強勁的業績鞏固了我們實現創紀錄的可比稀釋每股收益、創紀錄的經濟增加值以及接近創紀錄的調整後自由現金流的機會，這證明了我們投資組合的實力和嚴謹的執行力。

Aluminum packaging continues to outperform other substrates globally underscoring the resilient and defensive nature of our business. While we remain attentive to uncertainties related to tariffs and consumer pressures, particularly in the US, we are confident in our ability to proactively manage these dynamics and sustain our momentum towards delivering 12% to 15% comparable diluted EPS growth.

鋁包裝在全球範圍內持續優於其他基材，凸顯了我們業務的韌性和防禦性。儘管我們仍密切關注與關稅和消費者壓力相關的不確定性，尤其是在美國，但我們有信心積極應對這些動態，並保持成長勢頭，實現 12% 至 15% 的可比稀釋每股收益成長。

Third-quarter comparable net earnings of $277 million were driven by higher volume and cost management initiatives, partially offset by higher interest expense and lower interest income. In North and Central America, segment comparable operating earnings increased 3.5%, driven by stronger-than-expected volume performance though partially offset by product mix headwinds. Mid-single-digit percent volume growth was led by continued strength in energy drinks and nonalcoholic beverages.

第三季可比淨利潤為 2.77 億美元，主要得益於銷售成長和成本管理措施，但部分被更高的利息支出和更低的利息收入所抵銷。在北美和中美洲，受銷量表現強於預期的推動，該部門可比營業利潤增長了 3.5%，但部分被產品組合不利因素所抵消。能量飲料和非酒精飲料的持續強勁表現帶動了銷量達到個位數百分比的中段成長。

Our team continues to execute at a high level, successfully meeting elevated demand, navigating the complexities of Section 232 tariffs, and mitigating risks in a volatile environment. We remain vigilant in monitoring the evolving geopolitical landscape and tariff developments, and we are actively managing these dynamics to protect our business and support long-term growth.

我們的團隊繼續保持高水準的執行力，成功滿足了不斷增長的需求，應對了第 232 條款關稅的複雜性，並在動盪的環境中降低了風險。我們將密切關注不斷變化的地緣政治格局和關稅動態，並積極應對這些變化，以保護我們的業務並支持長期成長。

In EMEA, third-quarter segment volume growth of mid-single-digit percent remained robust, contributing to a 14.8% increase in segment comparable operating earnings. Favorable demand trends continue to reinforce our confidence in delivering meaningful year-over-year growth in 2025. This outlook is supported by sustained volume momentum and ongoing operational efficiency which position us well to capitalize on market opportunities and drive continued performance improvement.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，第三季業務量成長保持強勁，達到中等個位數百分比，推動業務可比營業利潤成長 14.8%。良好的需求趨勢持續增強了我們對2025年實現顯著同比增長的信心。這一前景得益於持續的銷售成長動能和不斷提高的營運效率，這使我們能夠更好地掌握市場機遇，並推動業績持續提升。

In South America, segment comparable operating earnings increased 2.6% and as mid-single-digit percent volume growth was supported by strong performance in Argentina, while the Brazilian market came in slightly below our initial expectations due to weather-related softness, we anticipate a recovery in the fourth quarter as conditions normalize. Our teams across the region continue to execute well, positioning us for sustained momentum.

在南美洲，該部門可比營業利潤增長了 2.6%，阿根廷的強勁表現支撐了中等個位數百分比的銷量增長，而巴西市場由於天氣原因略低於我們最初的預期，我們預計隨著情況恢復正常，第四季度將出現復甦。我們在整個地區的團隊繼續保持良好的執行力，為我們持續發展奠定了基礎。

We delivered a strong first nine months of 2025 positioning us well to achieve our full-year objectives. While important work remains in the fourth quarter, our teams are fully engaged, navigating ongoing uncertainties with discipline and leveraging the strength and resilience of our global portfolio.

2025 年頭九個月我們取得了強勁的業績，為我們實現全年目標奠定了良好的基礎。儘管第四季仍有許多重要工作要做，但我們的團隊全力以赴，以嚴謹的態度應對持續存在的不確定性，並充分利用我們全球投資組合的實力和韌性。

We remain laser focused on our goal of delivering 12% to 15% comparable diluted EPS growth for the year, despite external challenges, we are confident in our team's proven ability to execute effectively and deliver meaningful value to shareholders. We anticipate 2025 global volume growth to end above the long-term 2% to 3% range and expect all of our reportable segment businesses to perform in line with or ahead of our long-term targets in 2025. This reflects the durability of our underlying global demand, the strength of our customer relationships in addition to the operational consistency of our teams across markets.

儘管面臨外部挑戰，我們仍將全力以赴，努力實現全年可比稀釋每股收益成長 12% 至 15% 的目標。我們對團隊的卓越執行力充滿信心，相信他們能夠有效為股東創造有意義的價值。我們預計 2025 年全球銷售成長將高於 2% 至 3% 的長期目標，並預期我們所有可報告的業務部門在 2025 年的業績將達到或超過我們的長期目標。這反映了我們全球潛在需求的持久性、我們與客戶關係的牢固性，以及我們團隊在各個市場運作的一致性。

In EMEA, we continue to expect mid-single-digit volume growth in 2025 as the competitive advantages of aluminum packaging and low can penetration rates continue to drive share gains across the region. In South America, recovery in both Argentina and Chile has progressed in line with our expectations while Brazil experienced some softness earlier in the year, we anticipate a recovery in the fourth quarter. As a result, we now expect full-year 2025 volume growth across the region to fall within our long-term range of 4% to 6%. Our teams remain focused on execution and are well positioned to capture growth as market conditions stabilize.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們繼續預期 2025 年銷售量將實現中等個位數成長，因為鋁包裝的競爭優勢和低易拉罐滲透率將繼續推動該地區市場份額的成長。在南美洲，阿根廷和智利的復甦進展符合我們的預期，而巴西今年稍早經歷了一些疲軟，我們預計第四季將出現復甦。因此，我們現在預計 2025 年全年該地區的銷售成長將落入我們 4% 至 6% 的長期預期範圍內。我們的團隊將繼續專注於執行，並已做好充分準備，在市場環境趨於穩定後抓住成長機會。

In our North American business, stronger-than-expected volume growth across nonalcoholic categories particularly energy drinks, give us confidence that we will exceed the top end of our long-term 1% to 3% volume growth range in 2025. We remain confident in our ability to grow volumes slightly ahead of the market. The defensive nature of our portfolio, combined with strong customer alignment positions us well to navigate potential economic uncertainty and continue delivering consistent performance.

在北美業務方面，非酒精飲料類別（尤其是能量飲料）的銷售成長強於預期，這讓我們有信心在 2025 年超過我們長期 1% 至 3% 的銷量成長範圍的上限。我們仍然有信心實現略高於市場平均的銷量成長。我們的投資組合具有防禦性，加上與客戶的緊密聯繫，使我們能夠很好地應對潛在的經濟不確定性，並繼續保持穩定的績效。

With that, I'll turn it over to Dan to talk about key metrics for 2025.

接下來，我將把發言權交給丹，讓他談談 2025 年的關鍵指標。

Good morning, and thank you, Dan.

早安，謝謝你，丹。

We anticipate year-end 2025 net debt to comparable EBITDA to be slightly above 2.75 times, and we will repurchase at least $1.3 billion of shares in 2025. Through today's call, we have already purchased $1.2 billion of shares year to date. CapEx is expected to be below D&A in 2025. We anticipate being able to deliver on our target of adjusted free cash flow in the range of comparable net earnings in 2025.

我們預計到 2025 年底，淨負債與可比較 EBITDA 的比率將略高於 2.75 倍，並且我們將在 2025 年回購至少 13 億美元的股票。截至今天的電話會議，我們今年迄今已購買了價值 12 億美元的股票。預計 2025 年資本支出將低於折舊和攤提。我們預計到 2025 年，調整後的自由現金流將達到與同期淨收益相當的水平。

Relative to the estimated tax payments due on the aerospace sale, we expect the remaining portion to be paid in the fourth quarter of 2025, our 2025 full-year effective tax rate on comparable earnings is expected to be slightly above 22%, largely driven by lower year-over-year tax credits.

相對於預計應就航空航天業務出售繳納的稅款，我們預計剩餘部分將在 2025 年第四季度支付，我們預計 2025 年全年可比收益的實際稅率將略高於 22%，這主要是由於同比稅收抵免減少所致。

Full-year 2025 interest expense is now expected to be in the range of $320 million. Full-year 2025 reported adjustable corporate undistributed costs recorded in other non-reportable are expected to be in the range of $150 million. And last week, Ball's Board declared its quarterly cash dividend. We remain focused on driving operational excellence, sharpening cost discipline, and unlocking productivity across our global footprint.

預計2025年全年利息支出約3.2億美元。 2025年全年報告稱，計入其他非報告項目的調整後公司未分配成本預計在 1.5 億美元左右。上週，Ball公司董事會宣布了季度現金分紅。我們將持續專注於提升營運效率、加強成本控制，並提高全球業務的生產力。

Our teams are actively adapting to shifting conditions in emerging markets and broader geopolitical developments, maintaining agility and responsiveness in an increasingly dynamic environment. This proactive approach continues to support our ability to deliver consistent performance and long-term value.

我們的團隊積極適應新興市場不斷變化的情況和更廣泛的地緣政治發展，在日益動態的環境中保持敏捷性和回應能力。這種積極主動的方式持續支持我們實現穩定績效和長期價值的能力。

Our business model remains resilient and well positioned to weather external volatility, supported by the proactive steps we've taken to strengthen our balance sheet and enhance financial flexibility. With a solid foundation and clear visibility into our path forward, we are executing on initiatives designed to deliver sustainable, high-quality results. We remain focused on driving long-term creation for shareholders through consistent performance and disciplined decision-making.

我們的商業模式依然具有韌性，能夠很好地應對外部波動，這得益於我們採取的積極措施，包括加強資產負債表和增強財務靈活性。憑藉著堅實的基礎和清晰的未來發展方向，我們正在執行旨在取得永續、高品質成果的各項措施。我們將繼續專注於透過持續的業績和嚴謹的決策，為股東創造長期價值。

With that, I'll turn it back to Dan.

這樣，我就把麥克風交還給丹了。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝你，丹。

Our business continues to perform well, fueled by strong demand across our global network. Tight capacity conditions highlight the importance of operational precision and reliability in meeting customer expectations. Thanks to the agility and dedication of our teams, we remain on track to achieve our financial goals for the year, including 12% to 15% comparable diluted EPS growth, record EVA dollar generation, adjusted free cash flow aligned with comparable net earnings, and significant capital returns through robust share repurchases and dividend.

由於全球網路強勁的需求，我們的業務持續表現良好。產能緊張的現況凸顯了營運精準性和可靠性在滿足顧客期望的重要性。由於我們團隊的敏捷性和奉獻精神，我們仍有望實現今年的財務目標，包括 12% 至 15% 的可比稀釋每股收益增長、創紀錄的經濟增加值美元創造、與可比淨收益相符的調整後自由現金流，以及通過強勁的股票回購和分紅實現的重大資本回報。

While external volatility persists, particularly around geopolitical developments and market dynamics, our resilient business model and proactive footprint optimization continue to position us well. Long-term contracts and disciplined financial management further strengthen our ability to deliver consistent high-quality results.

儘管外部環境持續動盪，尤其是在地緣政治發展和市場動態方面，但我們具有韌性的商業模式和積極主動的業務佈局優化仍然使我們處於有利地位。長期合約和嚴格的財務管理進一步增強了我們持續提供高品質成果的能力。

This year has been a testament to the grid, talent, and relentless focus of our team. We put in the work, and now we're seeing that effort translate into real momentum across the business. We're not just competing, we're winning and we're just getting started. Our commitment to delivering longer-term shareholder value remains unwavering, driven by volume, operating earnings, free cash flow, and EVA growth. The foundation is strong, the strategy is working, and the future is ours to shape.

今年充分證明了我們團隊的實力、才華和不懈努力。我們付出了努力，現在我們看到這些努力正在轉化為整個業務的真正發展勢頭。我們不僅在競爭，我們還在贏，而這只是個開始。我們致力於為股東創造長期價值，這項承諾始終堅定不移，並以銷量、營業利潤、自由現金流和經濟增加價值成長為驅動力。基礎穩固，策略奏效，未來掌握在我們手中。

Thank you. And with that, Christine, we are ready for questions.

謝謝。克里斯汀，好了，我們準備回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

甘沙姆·潘賈比，貝爾德。

So I guess starting off with beverage NACA segment. Obviously, 2Q you called out some operational inefficiencies just given the nature of which categories grew that quarter, et cetera. Dan, how does that dynamic play out for 3Q? Because it looks like operating profit is a little bit better, basically comparable volume growth, but the operating profit -- the operating leverage is still quite a bit below historical norms. So just your thoughts there would be helpful.

那麼，我想就從飲料業的NACA板塊開始吧。顯然，鑑於第二季度成長的類別等因素，您指出了一些營運效率低下的問題。丹，這種動態對第三季會有什麼影響？因為看起來營業利潤略有好轉，銷售成長基本持平，但營業利潤——經營槓桿率仍遠低於歷史正常水準。所以，您的想法會很有幫助。

Yes, I appreciate the question.

是的，感謝您的提問。

Ghansham, we remain encouraged by the underlying market momentum. As cans are continuing to win on a multipack value and at-home consumption, similar to last quarter, as you've already indicated. In the third quarter, we saw continued customer and pack size mix shift toward lower-margin categories and that was driven by market trends as well as our deliberate choices to align with the fastest-growing brands and continue to feature proof our North America business.

Ghansham，我們仍然對潛在的市場動能感到鼓舞。正如您所指出的，罐裝食品在多包裝價值和家庭消費方面繼續佔據優勢，與上個季度的情況類似。第三季度，我們看到客戶和包裝尺寸組合繼續向低利潤類別轉變，這是由市場趨勢以及我們為與增長最快的品牌保持一致並繼續增強我們在北美業務的特色而做出的刻意選擇所驅動的。

So to your point, we grew NCA volume mid-single digits, operating earnings 4% year over year. We continue to see strength in terms of volume growth, and we'll be able to navigate a more efficient future as our Millersburg, Oregon facility comes online in the second half of next year. But all total, the profit per can from -- since 2019, our North America business has grown 32%, so we like the profitability levels.

所以正如您所說，我們的 NCA 銷量實現了中等個位數的成長，營業利潤比去年同期成長了 4%。我們在銷售成長方面持續保持強勁勢頭，隨著我們位於俄勒岡州米勒斯堡的工廠在明年下半年投產，我們將能夠迎接一個更有效率的未來。但總的來說，自 2019 年以來，我們在北美的業務成長了 32%，每罐利潤成長了 32%，因此我們對目前的獲利水準感到滿意。

We'd wish operating leverage is just a bit higher, but we're still on a journey to continue to improve that. And the business is in a really good spot. And you want to have the volume, so you can step into a more efficient footprint and supply chain pattern moving forward.

我們希望經營槓桿率能再高一些，但我們仍在努力提升這方面的能力。這家公司目前發展動能非常好。而且，你也需要一定的產量，這樣你才能在未來邁向更有效率的佈局和供應鏈模式。

And then I know it's difficult to predict volumes in this operating environment three months out a little low in the year out, but comparisons are going to get more difficult for that segment in 2026. Relative to the industry volumes for 2026, would you be at least in line with the industry? Or how should we think about that dynamic for next year?

我知道在這種經營環境下，提前三個月預測銷售量比較困難，年初的預測可能會偏低，但到 2026 年，該細分市場的比較將會更加困難。相對於 2026 年的行業銷量，您能否至少與行業平均水平持平？或者我們該如何看待明年的這種動態？

I would say yes to that. Right now, our current focus, as you can imagine, is finishing out a really sound 2025 and continuing the earnings momentum we were able to report in Q3. As it relates to 2026, it's early in our strategic planning process, probably to provide real granular guidance next four to six weeks will be indicative of what the more detailed prognostication will be for us.

我會同意的。如您所想，我們目前的重點是順利完成 2025 年的各項工作，並延續我們在第三季取得的獲利動能。至於 2026 年，目前還處於策略規劃過程的早期階段，未來四到六週內可能會提供更詳細的指導，屆時我們將給予更詳細的預測。

But we're confident in our ability to continue to grow our global volumes in line with long-term expectations. We'll grow earnings, we'll grow EPS, and you can expect us to continue to our robust share buyback program. So those are kind of the highlights for '26 and more to come here in the next probably four to six weeks. But North America, we're keeping an eye on that. We'll be in line with the market, if not ahead of it, and then certainly ahead in '27 and potentially '28 as we look here today.

但我們有信心繼續按照長期預期成長我們的全球銷售。我們將提高獲利，提高每股盈餘，您可以期待我們繼續推行強而有力的股票回購計畫。以上就是 2026 年的一些亮點，接下來的四到六週可能還會有更多內容。但北美的情況，我們會密切注意。我們將與市場保持一致，甚至領先於市場，正如我們今天所看到的，在 2027 年和 2028 年肯定會領先於市場。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

喬治‧斯塔福斯，美國銀行。

Congratulations on the progress.

恭喜你取得進展。

A question for you, recognizing we'll ultimately not be able to hold it to any of this per se, but how do you think tariff situations right now and aluminum strategies are affecting volume patterns and what it can mean for next year. And then we can cover world peace, if you'd like, after that. But (laughter) one thing aside, do you think there's been any sort of loading of volume into the market ahead of tariffs? Or what else are your customers doing into next year?

我有個問題想問您，雖然我們最終可能無法完全掌控這些因素，但您認為目前的關稅狀況​​和鋁業策略是如何影響銷售模式的，以及這對明年意味著什麼？如果你願意的話，之後我們還可以談談世界和平問題。但（笑）先不說這件事，你認為在關稅生效之前，市場上是否存在大量貨物湧入的情況嗎？或者，您的客戶明年還有哪些計畫？

Relatedly, I don't think there's any move on 232, but if there was a reversal on tariffs, if any of these are challenged, does that make life better or just complicates things. And I had a couple of follow-ons.

另外，我認為第 232 號法案沒有任何進展，但如果關稅政策發生逆轉，如果這些法案中的任何一項受到挑戰，那會使情況變得更好，還是只會讓事情變得更複雜？我還有幾個後續問題。

Yes. I think movement on tariffs kind of tie in your second question to the first question. We'll make it easier on demand. I would say -- we're passing through about a 25% to 30% price increase to our customers right now. It's negligible in terms of per can price but that's what's being passed through now in North America, in particular.

是的。我認為關稅方面的進展與你的第二個問題和第一個問題有點關聯。我們將根據需求提供更便利的服務。我想說——我們目前正將大約 25% 到 30% 的價格上漲轉嫁給我們的客戶。從每罐的價格來看，這微不足道，但這正是目前在北美地區尤其普遍存在的成本。

When you talk about October and then subsequently January price increases, we'll have that impact in it. So a reversal of that will be a healthy COGS move for our customers. Difficult to see the demand impact as we're still running. Our mix has something to do with it. Our favorable customer portfolio has something to do with that. We're winning disproportionately in the market on the back of some very, very good strategic partners. They're navigating it well. We're helping them navigate it. I do think -- when you hear demand challenges, you'll hear them specifically from our customers, and they will be tied to probably an ethnic backdrop, ICE impacts.

當您談到 10 月以及隨後 1 月的價格上漲時，我們會考慮到這種影響。因此，逆轉這一趨勢將有利於降低我們客戶的銷售成本。由於我們仍在運營，因此很難看出需求方面的影響。我們的配方與此有關。我們良好的客戶群與此有一定關係。我們憑藉著一些非常非常優秀的策略夥伴，在市場上取得了不成比例的優勢。他們處理得很好。我們正在幫助他們應對這種情況。我認為——當你聽到需求方面的挑戰時，你會聽到它們具體來自我們的客戶，而且它們可能與種族背景、移民和海關執法局（ICE）的影響有關。

And so I don't see that specifically in our can volume, which is a positive because cans are up, but it has to be impacting elements of the substrate and the ability for that end consumer to consume products via the same channels that they had historically. I think we're winning to some extent. And that -- now whether that continues -- to your point, I've got a better answer on World Peace. But yes, it's still -- there's still some question marks, but I just am really pleased with our team, our performance, and we'll continue to grow despite these challenges. And in some instances, they're helpful to us.

因此，我並沒有在我們的罐裝銷量中看到這一點，這是一個積極的信號，因為罐裝銷量有所增長，但這必然會對基材的某些方面以及最終消費者通過他們過去常用的渠道消費產品的能力產生影響。我認為我們在某種程度上取得了勝利。至於這種情況是否會繼續下去——說到你提到的這一點，關於世界和平，我有一個更好的答案。是的，目前仍然存在一些疑問，但我對我們的團隊和表現感到非常滿意，儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們仍將繼續成長。在某些情況下，它們對我們很有幫助。

Related to pack mix, couple of questions then I'll turn it over.

關於包裝組合，還有幾個問題，問完再轉告。

Are you seeing -- and the broader question is, are you seeing any signs it doesn't sound like it that your customers are maybe contemplating moves to non-aluminum packaging because of cost. We hear that from other substrates, might we see a little bit more of it perhaps in South America with a move to refillable glass.

你是否看到——或者更廣泛地說，你是否看到任何跡象表明，你的客戶可能因為成本原因而考慮改用非鋁包裝？我們從其他基材上也聽到類似的說法，隨著可填充玻璃的普及，我們或許會在南美洲看到更多這樣的情況。

What are your thoughts on that, whether that's a real threat or really not at all any move at all? I don't think so from the scanner data, but anything in terms of 2 liter in North America and related and last, and I'll stop, one of your larger customers is promoting. It sounds like mini-cans in convenience store, any pickup -- anything you could share there in terms of what it means for you next year?

你對此有何看法？這究竟是真正的威脅，還是根本不是什麼舉動？從掃描器數據來看，我不這麼認為，但是就北美 2 公升裝產品而言，以及相關的最後，我就此打住，你們的一位大客戶正在推廣。聽起來像是便利商店裡的小罐裝飲料，隨便拿一瓶——關於這對你明年意味著什麼，你有什麼想分享的嗎？

thank you, guys. Good luck in the quarter.

謝謝大家。祝你本季一切順利。

Thank you, George.

謝謝你，喬治。

I think the first part is I have asked that question at the very highest levels of our strategic relationship and they say, the only thing I can tell you, (inaudible) cans are going to continue to grow. What can size, I can't tell you; what channel, I can't tell you, but they're going to continue to grow. We're going to use cans.

我認為第一部分是，我已經向我們戰略關係的最高層提出了這個問題，他們說，我唯一能告訴你的是，（聽不清楚）罐頭食品將繼續增長。規模大小我無法告訴你；頻道如何，我無法告訴你，但它們將會繼續成長。我們將使用罐頭。

We haven't seen the returnable glass shift in South America. But usually, that's driven from an inflationary market dynamic. It's been more cold weather, but there certainly is a bit of inflation in Brazil, in particular. So we're keeping our eyes on that. But as you transition into '26, you've also got an election and a World Cup. And usually, on both of those instances, cans do really well, so I think we may be protected for a period of time.

我們還沒有看到南美洲出現可回收玻璃的趨勢。但通常情況下，這是由通貨膨脹的市場動態所驅動的。天氣比較冷，但巴西尤其出現了一些通貨膨脹。所以我們會密切關注此事。但隨著你邁入 2026 年，你還將迎來大選和世界盃。通常情況下，在這兩種情況下，罐裝食品的銷量都非常好，所以我認為我們可能會在一段時間內受到保護。

And then lastly, yes, we have -- we're very aware of what's been said publicly. There -- I think all of our -- all of the CSD players that are in the 7.5-ounce format are pushing that. That's a value proposition both for the end consumer. And for them, and I think this is just another application of using the 7.5-ounce can for price point, which says a lot about where the end consumer is in terms of the size of their grocery basket, et cetera -- the can works really well on small sizes. And so we're excited about the opportunity. I don't know how big it will be, but it should be incremental lift to us, both from them and then the knock-on effect from their competitors.

最後，是的，我們非常清楚公眾已經發表了哪些言論。我認為我們所有採用 7.5 盎司規格的 CSD 球員都在力推這種規格。這對最終消費者來說都是一種價值主張。對他們來說，我認為這只是 7.5 盎司罐裝產品在價格定位上的另一個應用，這充分說明了最終消費者在購物籃大小等方面的狀況——這種罐裝產品在小包裝方面非常有效。因此，我們對這個機會感到非常興奮。我不知道規模會有多大，但這應該會為我們帶來漸進式的提升，既包括他們自身的提升，也包括他們競爭對手帶來的連鎖反應。

Stefan Diaz, Morgan Stanley.

Stefan Diaz，摩根士丹利。

So I guess maybe just to start, there's been some discussion regarding contract movements potentially impacting next year by your peers in North America. Do you see any potential shifts impacting your volume performance in 2026 in the region?

所以我想先說明一下，北美同行們一直在討論合約變動可能會對明年產生影響的問題。您認為該地區2026年可能有哪些潛在變化會影響您的銷售表現？

Short answer, no.

簡而言之，不。

This is as strong contractual outlook, as I've seen for us in the 15 years I've been at Ball. There have been some movements in many instances, we benefited from those movements and '27 will benefit further. For us, we're a bit hamstrung on growth in 2026 until we get our Millersburg facility up. So it will be tight for us but we appear to be full. And that's the plan we're operating against right now.

這是我在 Ball 公司 15 年來見過的最強勁的合約前景。在許多情況下都出現了一些變化，我們從中受益，2027 年將會進一步受益。對我們來說，在米勒斯堡工廠建成之前，我們在 2026 年的成長會受到一些限制。所以對我們來說會很緊張，但我們看起來已經滿了。這就是我們目前正在執行的計劃。

Okay. Great. That's helpful.

好的。偉大的。那很有幫助。

And maybe just sticking with the Oregon plant. Can you remind us what volume impact this will have in 2026 or not really because I believe you were maybe shipping those cans from elsewhere?

或許就堅持使用俄勒岡州的工廠吧。您能否提醒我們一下，這會對 2026 年的銷售量產生多大影響？或者說，這其實不會產生什麼影響，因為我相信你們可能是從其他地方運送這些罐頭的？

And then secondly, how should we think about the potential margin lift when that plant gets up the learning curve or at least starts to open, I guess, in the second half of 2026 and then balancing that with a potential Mexico headwind because I know you were shipping cans from there. I guess how should we think about those puts and takes?

其次，我們應該如何看待工廠在 2026 年下半年（我猜）完成學習曲線或至少開始投產後可能帶來的利潤提升，以及隨之而來的墨西哥市場可能帶來的不利影響，因為我知道你們之前從那裡出口罐頭。我想我們該如何看待這些買賣操作呢？

Yes, we'll get -- we're working through a number of plans at the moment that will -- on the Mexico piece -- that will help to clear kind of direction of flight on any supply chain changes that we need to do. That will be a transient movement in between '26 and '27.

是的，我們會制定一些計劃——目前我們正在研究一些關於墨西哥的計劃——這些計劃將有助於明確我們需要進行的任何供應鏈變更的方向。那將是 2026 年到 2027 年之間的短暫變動。

And then for Millersburg, I should say, I would contemplate $1.5 billion of improved volume in '27, somewhere in that range, which could be as much as 3%. And that's going to be unlocked from really a very tight portfolio in the western half of the US and Texas, in Mexico, in the Southwest, as you know.

至於米勒斯堡，我認為 2027 年的產量可能會提高 15 億美元，大概在這個範圍內，增幅可能高達 3%。如你所知，這將從美國西部和德克薩斯州、墨西哥、西南部地區非常緊張的投資組合中釋放出來。

And so we'll be able to step into some contracted volume into '27 and then properly supply our customers in the Northwest from the most efficient supply point. So you'll have a little bit of start-up costs in '26, you'll recover that, and then you'll margin on top of that. So you'll see -- I think we'll return to a record can profitability and improved can profitability in '27, even off of what we have today.

因此，我們將能夠在 2027 年履行一些合約約定的供貨量，然後從最有效的供應點妥善地為我們在西北地區的客戶提供供應。所以你在 2026 年會有一些啟動成本，你會收回這些成本，然後你還能在此基礎上獲得利潤。所以你會看到——我認為，即使以我們今天的水平來看，到 2027 年，我們將恢復到創紀錄的罐裝飲料盈利能力，並且罐裝飲料的盈利能力也會有所提高。

Michael Roxland, Truist.

Michael Roxland，Truist。

This is Nico Piccini on for Mike.

這裡是尼可‧皮奇尼替麥克報道。

I just wanted to dial in kind of on 4Q and maybe dig deeper into the volume trends you're seeing or expecting by category in North America? And then any commentary on promotional activity? And if you can give a read on October month -- October than November month-to-date volumes?

我只是想深入了解第四季度的情況，也許可以更深入地探討您在北美各類別中觀察到或預期的銷售趨勢？那麼，對於宣傳活動有什麼評論嗎？如果您能看一下10月的銷售數據－比11月的銷售數據更準確一些？

Sure. So in 3Q, I think everyone on this call probably receives a scanner data, we do as well. So we want to spend time going through the category-specific data. But what we see in our customers across categories continue to promote and lean on multipack value and the cans are winning against other substrates in that environment.

當然。所以，我認為在第三季度，參加這次電話會議的每個人可能都會收到掃描器數據，我們也是如此。因此，我們希望花時間仔細研究特定類別的數據。但我們看到，各個品類的顧客都在不斷推廣和依賴多包裝的價值，而罐裝產品在這種環境下勝過其他包裝材料。

And I would say for the balance of the year, and please refer back to the script, but we expect at a global level to be above the 2% to 3% growth rate. And by region, North America, it will be above the 1% to 3%, so you can kind of reverse engineer the fourth quarter. EMEA has the possibility to be at the top end of its 3% to 5%, so we're expecting that top end. And then the range in South America will be in that 4% to 6% long-term range. So reverse engineer in that fourth quarter.

至於今年剩餘時間，請參考腳本，我們預計全球成長率將高於 2% 至 3%。按地區劃分，北美地區的增幅將高於 1% 到 3%，因此你可以大致推斷出第四季的情況。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的成長率有可能達到 3% 到 5% 的上限，所以我們預計會達到上限。然後，南美洲的利率範圍將長期維持在 4% 到 6% 的範圍內。所以，在第四季進行逆向工程。

But October, it's in line with our expectations at this point. There were some price increases that were taken by our customers in October. They were also offset with some traditional promotional activity in terms of buy two get one free. So the blended price is not representative of the full price that was taken on the retail shelves, and I think that somewhat insulated us.

但就目前而言，10月份的發佈時間符合我們的預期。10月份，部分商品和服務的價格上漲，我們的客戶也因此受到影響。同時，也進行了一些傳統的促銷活動，例如買二送一。因此，混合價格並不能代表零售貨架上的實際售價，我認為這在某種程度上保護了我們。

And then for Europe and for North America historically, it's December is kind of where the plus and minuses. So we get through football season in football in North America, we get through football season in Europe before they take a break. And then it's about as they described it in the UK, the silly season and then around the holidays and then how the Santa cans perform and things of that nature but what we're getting from our customers at this point, what we're seeing in October, we're encouraged that we'll land the year in line with our current expectations.

而對歐洲和北美來說，從歷史上看，12 月往往是利弊權衡的關鍵時期。所以，在北美足球賽季結束後，歐洲足球賽季結束後，他們就會進入休賽期。然後就像英國人所描述的那樣，到了購物狂歡季，以及假日期間，聖誕老人罐頭的銷售情況等等，但就我們目前從顧客那裡得到的反饋，以及我們在十月份看到的景象而言，我們感到鼓舞，相信今年的業績將符合我們目前的預期。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

And then just one quick follow-up for me. As you've owned Florida can and brought that production there up, have you been able to unlock any additional capacity at that plant specifically?

最後我還有一個後續問題。既然您已經擁有了佛羅裡達罐頭廠並提高了那裡的產量，您是否能夠釋放該工廠的任何額外產能？

Yes. And we're needing it to manage through some of the tariff supply chain challenges, but that plant is performing in line with our expectations. And next year, we'll be stepping into even more volume and unlocking even more opportunities there, so that's been a really good deal for us thus far.

是的。我們需要它來應對一些關稅供應鏈的挑戰，但該工廠的表現符合我們的預期。明年，我們將進入更大的市場，並在那裡開拓更多的機遇，所以到目前為止，這對我們來說是一筆非常好的交易。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

安東尼佩蒂納裡，花旗銀行。

Looking to 2026, understanding you're not giving like precise guidance, but are there any kind of directional about CapEx? And any kind of additional color on the (technical difficulty) plant and I think the North Carolina plant, which I don't know if you broke ground on, but there was some new stories about that, maybe in September. Any details there?

展望 2026 年，我知道您不會給予精確的指導，但關於資本支出方面有什麼方向性建議嗎？（技術難題）工廠的任何額外色彩，以及我認為北卡羅來納州的工廠，我不知道你們是否已經破土動工，但9月份有一些關於它的新報道。有什麼細節嗎？

Yes, great. I'll let Dan comment on early indications of CapEx but for the Oregon plant still on time to come up in the second half of the year. So we're encouraged about that progress and that will unlock a much more efficient supply chain. Obviously, you got to hire the people and stand up the facility. And so there's traditional start-up costs, but that bridges to a really healthy 2027 for us on a number of fronts.

是的，太好了。關於資本支出的早期跡象，我會讓丹來評論，但俄勒岡州的工廠仍將按計劃在今年下半年投產。因此，我們對這項進展感到鼓舞，這將開啟一條更有效率的供應鏈。顯然，你得先招人，然後把工廠建起來。因此，雖然存在傳統的啟動成本，但這將使我們在許多方面都朝著非常健康的 2027 年邁進。

Concord is something that -- we had a ribbon-cutting ceremony with our -- one of our large strategic customers, but that's a ways out in terms of actually capital in the ground and potential start-up. And that will ebb and flow with what's happening in the market. We're not the gating factor for being able to run additional production for them. We've got opportunities to do short-term, smaller investments. But if they continue to grow at the rate they have, we'll be very excited to put that (laughter) put a shovel in the ground and build that facility. So those are our plans right now for that.

Concord 是我們與一位大型策略客戶共同舉辦的剪綵儀式，但就實際的資金投入和潛在的啟動而言，還有很長的路要走。而這會隨著市場行情而起伏波動。我們並不是他們能否進行額外生產的障礙。我們有機會進行短期、小額投資。但如果他們繼續以目前的速度發展，我們將非常興奮地（笑）破土動工，建造那個設施。這就是我們目前的計劃。

Yes. And this is the other, Dan.

是的。這是另一個，丹。

A little more about the CapEx. With this year and last year being below CapEx, below the depreciation levels, it's still really early for us to be able to call next year, but we'd be guiding you a little more in line with depreciation or even slightly above, thinking about depreciation as a long-term average for our CapEx. But take it as it's early days on our budget for next year.

關於資本支出，再補充一點。由於今年和去年的資本支出都低於折舊水平，現在預測明年還為時過早，但我們會建議明年的支出與折舊水平大致持平，甚至略高於折舊水平，並將折舊視為我們資本支出的長期平均值。但請注意，我們現在才剛開始製定明年的預算。

Okay. That's very helpful.

好的。那很有幫助。

A follow-up on North America. I think last quarter, you talked about (technical difficulty) operating cost headwind. And I think that was (technical difficulty) can, tariffs, maybe mix was a part of that. Did that repeat or step down in 3Q? Or is that kind of over with? Or I'm just curious how that operating costs sort of headwind maybe 2Q to 3Q, maybe 4Q.

北美後續報道。我認為上個季度，您談到了（技術難題）營運成本的不利因素。我認為那是（技術難題）導致的，關稅，或許產品組合也是原因之一。第三季情況是否重演或改善？或者這件事已經過去了？或者我只是好奇營運成本是否會在第二季到第三季度，甚至第四季成為一種不利因素。

Yes, you should assume that we're continuing to manage through like-for-like inefficiencies from tariffs but we're past the inefficiencies in terms of the suddenness of the volume. The tariffs are still ongoing, and we're managing through those. And more to come on that as we evaluate long-term supply chain dynamics and what's the best and optimal footprint for us.

是的，你應該認為我們仍在應對關稅帶來的同等效率低下問題，但我們已經克服了銷售突然增長帶來的效率低下問題。關稅仍在實施中，我們正在努力應對。未來我們將對此進行更多探討，因為我們將評估長期供應鏈動態，並確定最適合我們的最優佈局。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

Phil Ng，傑富瑞集團。

Sorry, one more question on North America. It's great to see volumes have been strong and mix has been a modest drag just as you optimize that portfolio. When we think about '26, are you going to be in a pretty good spot, Dan, where mix is more neutral as we think about that going forward?

不好意思，還有一個關於北美的問題。很高興看到成交量強勁，而投資組合的優化恰好只帶來了輕微的拖累。丹，當我們展望 2026 年時，你認為你會處於相當有利的位置嗎？屆時市場格局會更加中立，因為我們展望未來時會更加如此？

And then some of the cost headwinds and efficiencies that have weighed on operating leverage in North America. Should we expect that to get back to more normal next year? Or is it still going to be kind of a work in progress?

此外，北美地區的一些成本逆風和效率提升也對經營槓桿造成了壓力。我們是否可以預期明年情況會恢復正常？或者它仍然會是一個正在進行中的項目？

A much smaller work in progress relative to some of the mix shift. We will have the start-up of the facility in -- Oregon (laughter) Ohio -- I didn't have my readers on reading the OH versus the OR. And then yes, let's see what we need to do as it relates to managing the underlying inefficiencies from the tariffs that we've been dealing with this year. (multiple speakers)

與某些混合變化相比，這是一項規模小得多的進行中工作。我們將在俄勒岡州（笑）俄亥俄州啟動該設施——我沒戴閱讀器，分不清 OH 和 OR。然後，是的，讓我們看看我們需要做些什麼來應對今年以來我們一直在處理的關稅問題所帶來的潛在效率低下問題。（多位發言者）

'27 will be -- anything that has to be managed will be transient in 2016, including the start-up of the facility and how we deal with ongoing underlying tariff impacts. And so we're really doing all the right things and setting ourselves up for a really nice short- and medium-term outlook.

2027 年將會是－2016 年需要管理的一切都將是暫時的，包括該設施的啟動以及我們如何應對持續的潛在關稅影響。因此，我們正在做所有正確的事情，為美好的短期和中期前景做好準備。

Yes. On that note, Dan, I mean, it sounds like you won business in '27, '28 in North America, which is great. And you commented on actually record can (multiple speakers)--

是的。說到這裡，丹，我的意思是，聽起來你在 2027 年和 2028 年在北美贏得了業務，這很棒。你評論說實際上可以記錄（多位發言者）——

Profitability--

獲利能力——

-- profitability for can for '27, which is exciting.

——2027 年罐頭產品的獲利能力令人振奮。

Are most of those levers more on the cost and efficiency side or we should expect perhaps a better pricing environment just given how supply demand and volumes has actually inflected pretty nicely the last 12 months?

這些槓桿大多集中在成本和效率方面，還是鑑於過去 12 個月供需和銷售實際上已經出現了相當不錯的變化，我們應該期待一個更好的定價環境？

Yes. The market is tight, Phil. I think you're right. You should see an elongated improvement in underlying economics of the business that I think the industry will benefit from. And for us, in particular, the things that we've been able to manage via the operating model changes, the operating earnings construction, the inefficiencies of just a better performing manufacturing environment.

是的。菲爾，市場行情很緊俏。我覺得你說得對。我認為，企業基本經濟狀況將持續改善，整個產業也將從中受益。對我們來說，尤其重要的是，我們能夠透過營運模式的改變、營運收益的建構以及更有效率的製造環境所帶來的效率低下等方式來管理這些問題。

And we're kind of early days even with AI technology deploying and there's a number of applications, both commercially with AI and secondarily within supply chain and in our plants and operating our plants more efficiently through technology. So there's room for margin improvement, and it doesn't have to come on the backs of our customers. It can just come through improved performance and I'm encouraged about that.

人工智慧技術的部署還處於早期階段，它有許多應用，包括人工智慧在商業領域的應用，以及在供應鏈和工廠中透過技術更有效率地運作工廠的應用。因此，利潤率還有提升空間，而且這無需以犧牲客戶利益為代價。這或許可以透過提升效能來實現，對此我感到很鼓舞。

And just to sneak one in for the other Dan.

順便也給另一個丹提一句。

How should we think about capital deployment when you think about 2026. Obviously, you guys have done a phenomenal job in returning cash back to shareholders. Is that going to be the focus still or could M&A be an opportunity, at least there's some chatter about Europe? Was the market you guys are at least taking a look at. So kind of help us think through medium-, long-term how you're going to put that excess cash.

展望2026年，我們該如何看待資本部署？顯然，你們在向股東返還現金方面做得非常出色。這仍將是重點嗎？或者併購可能是個機會？至少現在有一些關於歐洲的討論。你們至少有關注這個市場嗎？所以，請您幫我們思考一下，從中長期來看，您打算如何使用這筆多餘的現金。

Yes. I think notably, you're going to see the -- on the share repurchase, not to be at the same levels because through this year, we will have bought back over $3 billion worth of shares. That's a path to being private, if you think about it. So we'll moderate back into probably some of our historical averages, which you might have seen in the past. That's still being worked out on exact numbers.

是的。我認為值得注意的是，股票回購規模不會再像以前那樣大了，因為今年到目前為止，我們已經回購了價值超過 30 億美元的股票。仔細想想，這其實是一條通往隱私的途徑。因此，我們將回落到一些歷史平均水平，您可能在過去已經看到這些水平。具體數字仍在計算中。

But we're going to continue to carry a conservative balance sheet, and we're going to be wise on how we spend the capital. So really, this is really how we've always managed the business, looking at those three levers and trying to do the right thing to get the returns -- the right return for our shareholders.

但我們會繼續保持穩健的資產負債表，並且會明智地使用資金。所以實際上，我們一直以來都是這樣管理業務的，專注於這三個關鍵因素，並努力做正確的事情來獲得回報——為我們的股東帶來正確的回報。

And Phil, I would say it's a yes on those two questions, so stay tuned.

菲爾，我認為這兩個問題的答案都是肯定的，敬請期待。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通。

Your inventories year over year are up around $500 million. I take it that's higher aluminum costs. Should your inventories continue to rise into the fourth quarter as aluminum values have lifted?

貴公司庫存較去年增加約5億美元。我猜是因為鋁價漲了。隨著鋁價上漲，您的庫存是否應該在第四季繼續增加？

It's a combination of both, great question.

兩者兼而有之，問得好。

As you know, we didn't have the right -- we didn't have the right inventory mix in the third quarter last year, specifically in South America in terms of unit volume in days, I think we've added a few days to make sure that we're fit for purpose of what our customers need.

如您所知，去年第三季我們的庫存組合並不合適，尤其是在南美洲，就單位數量和天數而言。我認為我們已經增加了一些天數，以確保我們能夠滿足客戶的需求。

We've got a couple of customers even within our portfolio that are really outpacing what they expected at the beginning of the year. We've had some really good market trends. So we want to make sure we're ready for that and managing that more appropriately. I'd say the two to three days is a better reflection of a healthy level of inventory. And then your other question is probably 50%, 60% is the increased aluminum value and aluminum costs. So I'd say two-thirds, one-thirds, but that's how I would construct it.

在我們現有客戶中，有幾家公司的業績確實超出了年初的預期。我們最近經歷了一些非常好的市場趨勢。所以我們希望確保我們做好準備，並更妥善地應對這種情況。我認為兩到三天的庫存週期更能反映出健康的庫存水準。那麼你的另一個問題可能是，50%到60%是由於鋁價上漲和鋁成本增加所造成的。所以我覺得應該是三分之二，三分之一，但這就是我的計算方式。

And I think we might add that this is some terrific volume growth, too, that we've come into, especially here in the United States, too, that has a role in this, too.

而且我認為我們還可以補充一點，我們取得的銷售成長也非常驚人，尤其是在美國，這也起到了一定的作用。

Also in your financials, it said that you purchased an investment linked to the common stock of ORG Technology, you bought -- you have a $47 million investment. What is ORG Technology? Why do you own it? And what exactly do you own?

你的財務報表也顯示，你買了與 ORG Technology 普通股相關的投資，你買了——你的投資額為 4,700 萬美元。什麼是ORG技術？為什麼你擁有它？你究竟擁有什麼？

Yes. Let -- you're referring to one of the notes in the release. An ORG Technology is the party who just acquired the controlling stake from our Saudi Arabian joint -- beverage can joint venture and we have a long history and a good strategic relationship with them that dates back to the year 2018 when they bought our beverage can business and probably not too many people were at that earnings call. But we had, at that time, announced that we would be putting some investment into their company. They are the largest beverage can producer in China, and they are traded publicly. So it's a small stake in their public company for important strategic relationship for us.

是的。——你指的是新聞稿中的一則註。ORG Technology 剛從我們沙烏地阿拉伯的合資企業（飲料罐合資企業）收購了控股權，我們與他們有著長期的合作關係和良好的戰略關係，可以追溯到 2018 年，當時他們收購了我們的飲料罐業務，可能當時參加財報電話會議的人並不多。但當時我們已經宣布將對他們的公司進行一些投資。他們是中國最大的飲料罐生產商，也是一家上市公司。所以，我們持有他們上市公司的一小部分股份，是為了建立重要的策略關係。

And Jeff, I think you would anticipate that there's a number of strategic elements to that investment, so more to come on that.

傑夫，我想你會預料到這項投資包含許多戰略要素，所以關於這一點，我們稍後會詳細說明。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

You mentioned in the last two calls, I should say -- you mentioned a few times in the last two earnings calls, just about mix. And I understand there are a lot of moving parts. I mean there's big beer versus craft beer. There's new [CSE] contracts. There's obviously some logistical things in terms of a large energy customer. But approximately what quarter in 2026, do you think that's roughly going to normalize in terms of improving the Street's ability to better project volume versus operating leverage in your NCA business.

你應該說，你在最近兩次電話會議中多次提到——關於混合投資。我知道這裡面牽扯到很多環節。我的意思是，啤酒有大眾啤酒和精釀啤酒之分。有新的[CSE]合約。對於大型能源客戶而言，顯然存在一些物流上的問題。但您認為大約在 2026 年的哪個季度，市場能夠更好地預測貴公司 NCA 業務的銷售與營運槓桿之間的關係，從而大致恢復正常水平？

It will be much cleaner in '27 when we have a little bit more capacity. So capacity is one component of a difficulty to predict leverage fall through. The second one is just the shift into higher growth customers, higher growth categories, and we're through 80% of that at this point for the next three years.

到 2027 年，當我們產能稍微提升一些時，情況會好得多。因此，產能是難以預測槓桿失效的因素。第二個轉變就是轉向高成長客戶、高成長品類，目前我們已經完成了未來三年內 80% 的轉變。

So not a great deal of additional change in terms of our mix but the navigating and incredibly tight, I think we'll be at 99% asset utilization next year. So how you're delivering on spikes and declines of volume line by line, SKU by SKU, that's going to be difficult for us to manage the traditional flow through.

因此，我們的投資組合不會有太大的變化，但管理起來非常困難，我認為明年我們的資產利用率將達到 99%。因此，如何應對每條產品線、每個 SKU 的銷售高峰和低谷，對我們來說，透過傳統的流程管理將會非常困難。

I think what you're seeing counter to that just in a corollary is we put in excess capacity, growing into a growing market in Europe. Much easier to flow through operational leverage at a more traditional rate when you've got that, you're not having to manage things kind of hand to mouth. So looking forward to having a little bit more capacity in the right locations in 2027.

我認為與此相反的情況是，我們投入了過剩產能，以適應歐洲不斷成長的市場。有了這些，以更傳統的速度運用營運槓桿就容易得多，你不必捉襟見肘地勉強維持收支平衡。期待在 2027 年在合適的地點擁有更多的產能。

So that actually leads me to my second question on Europe. I don't know if you've supposedly hit this on the call, but growing into a growing market, I mean, what's your kind of latest and greatest assessment based on what you're hearing from your customers in terms of the outlook for '27, '28 in terms of the need or perhaps it's already accounted for additional supply capacity in Europe, in particular?

這其實引出了我關於歐洲的第二個問題。我不知道您是否在電話會議上談到過這一點，但考慮到市場正在不斷增長，我的意思是，根據您從客戶那裡聽到的反饋，您對 2027 年、2028 年的前景，特別是對歐洲市場需求或新增供應能力的評估，您最新的最佳評估是什麼？

Europe is -- and I think you're hearing it from a lot of our competitors as well and our customers. For the can, it's a land of opportunity. And it is because it still has heavy glass substrate composition -- and glass has got a really bad carbon footprint. And so there's investments away from glass, the cans preferred.

歐洲的情況是──我想你也從我們的許多競爭對手和客戶那裡聽到了同樣的說法。對罐頭來說，這是一片充滿機會的土地。這是因為它仍然含有大量的玻璃基板成分——而玻璃的碳足跡非常糟糕。因此，人們不再投資玻璃製品，而是轉向罐裝產品。

Europe is not Europe. Obviously, it's not homogenous. So depending on what the markets are -- will depend on what the can size is depending on is it a vacation spot like Southern Europe is which is more seasonal. I think all of these factors weigh into what's the right capacity and where.

歐洲已不再是歐洲。顯然，它不是同質的。所以，根據市場情況——罐頭大小取決於市場是否像南歐這樣的度假勝地，那裡的季節性更強。我認為所有這些因素都會影響到合適的容量和位置。

And obviously, it's a much more discerning investment in that market for all of us, given the labor laws, the works council and the challenge to garner environmental permitting et cetera. So it's a -- if you endeavor to build there, it's much more difficult, much more specific, much more thoughtful approach that you have to take in those markets. And it's -- I'm very encouraged about the capital we've deployed there and the benefits we've gotten and as we continue to do that. It's you have to be methodical about it, for sure.

顯然，考慮到勞動法、職工委員會以及獲得環境許可等方面的挑戰，對我們所有人來說，在這個市場上進行投資是一項更審慎的投資。所以，如果你想在那裡發展，你需要採取更困難、更具體、更深思熟慮的方法。而且——我對我們在那裡投入的資金以及我們獲得的收益感到非常鼓舞，我們將繼續這樣做。你必須有條不紊地去做，這是肯定的。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

埃德蘭·羅德里格斯，瑞穗。

Dan, quick one for you.

丹，給你出個題目。

You've divested most of the key issues. So one quick one here. As you look at all the puts and takes in the different regions and so forth, like what worries you the most. Like what do you see as under your control? And what do you see like things you cannot control? Yes, like what worries you the most as you get into the next year and year after that?

你已經解決了大部分關鍵問題。那就簡單問一個問題。當你觀察不同地區的所有買賣交易等等時，你最擔心的是什麼。你認為哪些事情是你能控制的？你認為哪些事情是你無法控制的？是的，例如，在即將到來的一年以及之後的一年裡，你最擔心的是什麼？

Little worries me at this point. I say this with the greatest respect for the team that I am managing and working with. We have hit a number of outsized challenges here over the last three or four years, that really no one in our industry has had to deal with. No one had to deal with Russia. No one had to deal with the marketing issue in the light beer category. No one had a business in Argentina.

目前我沒什麼好擔心的。我懷著對所管理和共事的團隊的極大尊重說出這番話。在過去三、四年裡，我們遇到了許多巨大的挑戰，這是我們行業中其他人從未遇到過的。誰都不需要和俄羅斯打交道。淡啤酒類別中，沒有人需要處理行銷問題。阿根廷沒有人開店。

So the team is masterfully going through that, and we've stood up a new operating model -- and not to mention what's happened here recently with the trade challenges. But certainly, [five 80] year olds controlling the majority of the largest economies in the world and what they want to do tomorrow. That's -- I can't spend a whole lot of time deliberating that and [what to what ifs] are, but trusting and leaning in on our team, making sure that they have the energy and they believe we're winning and that we have a winning formula. That's where I'm spending the most of my time.

所以團隊正在巧妙地應對這一切，我們已經建立了一個新的營運模式——更不用說最近這裡發生的貿易挑戰了。但可以肯定的是，五個 80 歲的人掌控著世界上大多數最大的經濟體，並且決定明天想做什麼。我不能花太多時間去仔細考慮這些以及各種假設，而是要信任和依靠我們的團隊，確保他們充滿活力，相信我們會贏，相信我們擁有製勝之道。我大部分時間都待在那裡。

But I appreciate the question. (laughter)

但我很感謝你的提問。（笑聲）

(laughter)

（笑聲）

No. So that space. So as you look at your stock price kind of been under pressure. So when you look at capital allocation -- when you looking like in terms of share buyback more opportunistically or trying to be more aggressive? Like what are you thinking there in terms of the disconnect between what you think you can deliver and what the stock is reflected in.

不。所以，那個空間。所以你看，你的股價似乎一直承受著壓力。那麼，在考慮資本配置時──你是更傾向機會主義的股票回購，還是更傾向積極主動的策略？你覺得你認為自己能做到的和股票反映出來的之間有什麼脫節？

Well, we think we're very cheap. I think we believe (laughter) that looking at our five-year outlook, looking at our plans, looking at the historical valuation of this company, looking at how we're performing and winning in virtually every single capacity. So we're -- I'd say we're not -- we're opportunistic in the sense that we think we're cheap, but we're going to be very deliberate in returning value to shareholders. And we're at our best. We return value to our shareholders in a consistent manner. And as long as I see a really positive and constructive outlook, we'll continue to keep the foot on the gas in terms of the share buyback.

嗯，我們覺得自己的價格很便宜。我認為我們相信（笑聲），看看我們未來五年的展望，看看我們的計劃，看看這家公司的歷史估值，看看我們在幾乎所有方面都取得了成功。所以，我們——應該說我們不是——我們並非投機取巧，因為我們認為我們的股價很便宜，但我們會非常謹慎地為股東創造價值。我們正處於最佳狀態。我們以持續的方式為股東創造價值。只要我看到積極且建設性的前景，我們就​​會繼續加大股票回購力道。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC.

Arun Viswanathan，RBC。

Congrats on strong quarter here and outlook.

恭喜本季業績強勁，前景良好。

So I guess my first question, maybe I could just ask about the categories. So in North America this year, I think we're characterized by a very strong energy market somewhat off of easy comps, but also I think the consumer has pivoted that way to get maybe coffee into that at a lower rate than coffee. (laughter)

所以我想我的第一個問題是，或許我可以問分類方面的問題。所以今年北美市場的特點是能源市場非常強勁，這在一定程度上是由於比較基數較低，但同時我認為消費者也轉向了能源市場，以較低的價格購買咖啡。（笑聲）

But maybe some other dynamics playing in there. Do you see energy continuing to grow next year at a similar pace on tougher comps and similarly, I guess, beer was relatively weak. However, you've managed through it with your very strong [CFC] position -- so maybe you can just comment on how the categories look to you as you -- you've already said some new contracts after '27, '28. But in '26, do you expect continued low-single-digit growth? And maybe you can just provide some thoughts by category.

但或許還有其他因素在起作用。您認為明年能源產業在更嚴峻的競爭環境下能否繼續以類似的速度成長？同樣地，我認為啤酒業也相對疲軟。不過，憑藉你非常強大的[CFC]地位，你已經挺過來了——所以也許你可以評論一下你對這些類別的看法——你已經說過在2027年、2028年之後有一些新合約。但你預計2026年會繼續維持個位數低成長嗎？或許您可以按類別提供一些想法。

Yes. I think your characterization of the categories are -- is right. I think the other thing that is -- needs to be impressed upon, I think, the broader audiences, there are very aggressive innovations happening now in a number of areas that would be a little bit more challenging to define, but health and wellness is certainly promoting. I think there's protein going into everything these days. (laughter) So I think that market is untapped.

是的。我認為你對這些類別的描述是正確的。我認為還有一點需要向更廣泛的受眾強調，那就是目前在許多領域正在發生非常積極的創新，這些領域可能更難定義，但健康和保健領域無疑正在推動這些創新。我覺得現在幾乎所有東西都含有蛋白質。（笑聲）所以我認為這個市場還沒有開發。

But we're connected to a lot of folks that we think are going to win disproportionately moving forward and they're going to be in cans. But the [9 out 52] weeks, it's grown 4.8%, alcohol has declined at 2.5%. We have plans to help everyone win in their categories and their preferred brand. There's a lot of can innovation happening, so all of that's going to be required to help all of our customers win.

但我們與許多人有聯繫，我們認為這些人未來會取得不成比例的成功，而他們將被淘汰出局。但在過去 9 週（共 52 週）中，酒精消費增加了 4.8%，而酒精消費下降了 2.5%。我們計劃幫助每個人在各自的類別和他們喜愛的品牌中取得成功。目前罐體創新層出不窮，所有這些都將幫助我們的所有客戶取得成功。

And then there's a lot of disruption that's coming in terms of innovation that we're excited about. So folks that are beverage companies are going to figure it out. And that's where we've also been repositioning some of our portfolio to make sure that we're winning disproportionately on favored mix and winning with the winners.

此外，創新領域即將迎來許多顛覆性變革，我們對此感到非常興奮。所以飲料公司的人總會找到解決辦法的。因此，我們也一直在重新調整部分投資組合，以確保我們在受歡迎的組合上獲得不成比例的成功，並與贏家一起贏得勝利。

So '26 is what your question, '26 for us is were very, very tight. And we've bridged higher growth into the contract construction into and beyond to make sure that we can stand up a facility in the Northwest in Oregon. And so we'll grow in line with what we believe the market, at least the low end of the market. And then we'll -- you'll see fundamental step change where we'll outpace the market in '27, '28, and beyond, potentially.

所以你的問題是“26”，對我們來說，“26”意味著我們當時的處境非常非常艱難。我們已經將更高的成長融入合約建設及其他領域，以確保我們能夠在俄勒岡州西北部建立一個工廠。因此，我們的發展將與我們認為的市場發展趨勢保持一致，至少與低端市場的發展趨勢保持一致。然後，你們將會看到根本性的變革，在 2027 年、2028 年及以後，我們可能會超越市場。

Great. Thank for that.

偉大的。謝謝。

And so I guess what I'm hearing is the main issues that you're contemplating are just around complexity and maybe execution and -- would there be any issues on metal supply that we should consider? Maybe whether it's logistics and getting metal in the right places or imports or supply chain? Or have you already addressed those as well?

所以，我理解的是你主要考慮的是複雜性和執行方面的問題，還有──金屬供應方面是否有我們應該考慮的問題？或許是物流問題，例如如何將金屬運送到適當的地方，或是進口問題，又或許是供應鏈問題？或者您已經處理過這些問題了嗎？

Yes. Overwhelmingly, we've addressed those. There was some media coverage on one of our suppliers that I believe, supplies 8% of the can sheet in the North American market, they're overwhelming automotive supply base, so that was something that was managed very effectively.

是的。絕大多數問題我們都已解決。媒體通報了我們的一家供應商，據我所知，這家供應商供應了北美市場 8% 的罐體板材，他們佔據了汽車供應鏈的絕大部分份額，所以我們對這件事處理得非常有效。

Yes, we continue to not have enough aluminum in the US process aluminum, aluminum can sheet, but that's something we've been dealing with for multiple years now. And 232 hasn't presented much more in terms of supply chain challenges. And then we have both Novelis and [SDI], that's going to be standing up a new facility here in the next few years. So medium, long term, are in great shape. Short term, we're all navigating kind of disillusionment of NAFTA supply chain. (laughter)

是的，美國加工用鋁材、鋁罐板材的供應仍然不足，但這個問題我們已經處理了好幾年了。而第 232 號修正案在供應鏈挑戰方面並沒有帶來更多問題。此外，Novelis 和 [SDI] 都將在未來幾年內在這裡建立一個新的工廠。所以從中長期來看，情況非常好。短期來看，我們都對北美自由貿易協定的供應鏈感到有些失望。（笑聲）

But we're -- the team is doing a great job, and we may have to do some things on our footprint to navigate much more efficiently, but you're talking about low capital throws and just optimizing what's in front of you. We do that all the time, but this one would be directly connected to the tariff scenarios.

但是我們——團隊做得非常出色，我們可能需要在現有基礎上做一些事情，以便更有效率地開展工作，但你談論的是低成本投入，只是優化你眼前的事情。我們一直都在這樣做，但這次的情況將與關稅方案直接相關。

For metal, we feel pretty good, though, where we are.

不過就金屬樂而言，我們對目前的狀況感到相當滿意。

Great. Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝。

And apologies if I missed this, but did you call out any special cash items for next year? I know CapEx you addressed, but is there anything on working capital or cash tax or minority interest or anything else that would drag cash flow? Or any thoughts on what your conversion from EBITDA or net income would be?

如果我錯過了什麼，請見諒，請問您有沒有提到明年有哪些特別的現金獎勵項目？我知道您已經提到了資本支出，但是關於營運資金、現金稅、少數股東權益或其他任何可能拖累現金流的因素，還有什麼需要注意的嗎？或者您對將 EBITDA 或淨利潤轉換為美元有何想法？

No. We really have nothing to report right now at this time but I think we think the trends should continue into next year for the most part.

不。目前我們沒有什麼可以報告的，但我們認為這些趨勢在很大程度上應該會延續到明年。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

Just first -- a quick follow-up just on the Novelis outage and the aluminum supply. Did that have any impact on you guys in 3Q or 4Q volumes or cost expectations?

首先－快速跟進一下諾維利斯停產事件和鋁供應情況。這是否對你們第三季或第四季的銷售或成本預期產生了任何影響？

No, it didn't.

不，並沒有。

That is clear enough. (laughter)

這一點很清楚了。（笑聲）

Secondly, I just wanted to ask more broadly on consumer elasticities here as you're thinking about inflation for carbonated soft drinks and beer. Do you have any latest view around kind of what the sensitivity would be when consumers start to see the impact of higher prices next year or potentially the risk of?

其次，我想更廣泛地詢問關於消費彈性的問題，因為您正在考慮碳酸軟性飲料和啤酒的通貨膨脹。您目前對消費者明年開始感受到物價上漲的影響或潛在風險時的敏感度有什麼看法？

Yes, I'm actually more encouraged. Then I think the press clippings are -- just from this standpoint. We've been talking about a weekend consumer for three years. I mean it's been -- grocery baskets have been getting smaller for three years. So this is nothing new (laughter) to what we've been dealing with and what our customers have been dealing with.

是的，我確實更受鼓舞了。那我認為，從這個角度來看，新聞剪報是…我們已經討論週末消費者三年了。我的意思是，這種情況已經持續了三年——人們的購物籃越來越小了。所以，這跟我們以及我們的客戶一直以來遇到的情況並沒有什麼新鮮的（笑聲）。

And if you look at the most recent and what's different, and I think this is why I'm encouraged -- when you look at what people are saying, they're going to spend their money on, they're going to spend their money on food and beverages. They're not going to travel. They're not going to buy a large capital spend.

如果你看看最近的情況以及不同之處，我認為這就是我感到鼓舞的原因——看看人們都在說什麼，他們會把錢花在什麼地方，他們會把錢花在食物和飲料上。他們不會出行。他們不會進行大規模的資本支出。

It's all geared toward the things that we make. So the concentration, the effort, and the dollars that are being spent in people's budgets and in their mental framework is going to us whereas the last two to three years, we were still competing with vacations and other things, but that's not what we're competing with now. So I think that would signal to you that the pricing has clicked into a place where they have to focus on putting food on the table above everything else, and that's usually a good spot for us.

這一切都是為了我們生產的產品。因此，人們在預算和思維框架中投入的精力、努力和金錢都流向我們了，而過去兩三年，我們還在與度假和其他事物競爭，但現在我們不再與這些競爭了。所以我認為這表明，他們的定價策略已經調整到了一個必須優先保證顧客吃飯的地步，這對我們來說通常是一個好時機。

We have reached --

我們已經到達--

Yes, I want to thank everybody for the questions today, and I hope you have a wonderful holiday season and look forward to reporting back out full-year numbers and the deeper dive into '26 here in short order.

是的，我要感謝大家今天提出的問題，希望大家假期愉快，期待很快能在這裡向大家報告全年數據以及對 2026 年的深入分析。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。