Ball Corp (BALL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Ball Corporation fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

問候並歡迎參加 Ball Corporation 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Brandon Potthoff, Director of Investor Relations.

現在我很高興介紹您的主持人、投資者關係總監 Brandon Potthoff。

Thank you, sir.

謝謝您，先生。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you, Christine.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

This is Ball Corporation's conference call regarding the company's fourth quarter 2024 results.

這是鮑爾公司關於公司 2024 年第四季業績的電話會議。

The information provided during this call will contain forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議中提供的資訊將包含前瞻性陳述。

Actual results or outcomes may differ materially from those that may be expressed or implied.

實際結果或成果可能與明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made today.

我們不承擔更新今天所作的任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Some factors that could cause the results or outcomes to differ are described in the company's latest Form 10-K, our most recent earnings release and Form 8-K, and other company SEC filings as well as company news releases.

本公司最新的 10-K 表格、我們最新的收益報告和 8-K 表格以及其他公司 SEC 文件以及公司新聞稿中描述了一些可能導致結果或成果不同的因素。

If you do not already have the earnings release, it is available on our website at ball.com. Information regarding the use of non-GAAP financial measures may also be found in the notes section of today's earnings release.

如果您尚未收到收益報告，您可以在我們的網站 ball.com 上查看。關於使用非公認會計準則財務指標的資訊也可在今天的收益報告的註釋部分找到。

In addition, the release includes a summary of non-comparable items, as well as a reconciliation of comparable net earnings and diluted earnings per share calculations.

此外，新聞稿還包括不可比較項目的摘要，以及可比淨收益和每股稀釋收益計算的對帳。

References to net sales and comparable operating earnings in today's release and call do not include the company's former aerospace business.

今天的發布和電話會議中提到的淨銷售額和可比營業收入並不包括該公司以前的航空航天業務。

Year-to-date, net earnings attributable to the corporation and comparable net earnings do include the performance of the company's former aerospace business through the sale date of February 16, 2024.

年初至今，歸屬於公司的淨利潤和可比淨利潤確實包括了公司前航空航太業務截至 2024 年 2 月 16 日出售日期的業績。

I would now like to turn the call over to our CEO, Dan Fisher.

現在我想將電話轉給我們的執行長丹費雪。

Thank you, Brandon.

謝謝你，布蘭登。

Today, I'm joined on our call by Howard Yu, EVP and CFO.

今天，執行副總裁兼財務長 Howard Yu 參加了我們的電話會議。

I will provide some brief introductory remarks.

我將作一些簡短的介紹性發言。

Howard will discuss fourth quarter financial performance and key metrics for 2025, and then we will finish up with closing comments in Q&A.

霍華德將討論 2025 年第四季的財務表現和關鍵指標，然後我們將在問答環節結束發言。

Before I talk about the business and results, I want to highlight the amazing work our employees and teams have done to give back to their communities.

在談論業務和業績之前，我想先強調一下我們的員工和團隊為回饋社區所做的出色工作。

In 2024, our employees volunteered more than 23,000 hours of their time across 23 countries and to more than 1,880 different causes and organizations working to create a positive impact in the communities where we live and work.

2024 年，我們的員工在 23 個國家/地區為 1,880 多個不同的事業和組織志願服務超過 23,000 小時，致力於為我們生活和工作的社區帶來積極影響。

In partnership with the Ball Foundation and our dedicated employees, we invested more than $4 million into our communities to support local causes and disaster relief efforts.

我們與鮑爾基金會和我們敬業的員工合作，向社區投資了超過 400 萬美元，以支持當地事業和救災工作。

I want to thank all of our employees who devoted time in 2024 to uplifting our communities.

我要感謝我們所有在 2024 年致力於振興社區的員工。

You truly represent our values that We Care, We Work, We Win.

您真正體現了我們的價值觀：我們關懷，我們努力，我們勝利。

I also want to take a minute to highlight the work our teams have done to continue to improve our safety performance.

我還想花一點時間來強調我們的團隊為繼續提高安全績效所做的工作。

Because our people are our most valuable resource, we set aggressive targets to improve our total recordable incident rates.

由於員工是我們最寶貴的資源，因此我們設定了積極的目標來改善我們的整體可記錄事故率。

We continue to be well below industry incident rates, and our continuous improvement mindset requires us to constantly improve.

我們的事故率持續遠低於產業事故率，而我們持續改進的思維模式要求我們不斷改進。

Through that mindset, we were able to decrease our 2024 incident rates versus 2023 and outperformed our goal for the year.

透過這種思維方式，我們能夠將 2024 年的事故率降低至 2023 年的水平，並超額完成了今年的目標。

For us, our safety metrics represent more than just numbers.

對我們來說，我們的安全指標不僅僅代表數字。

They exemplify the health and well-being of our employees, and we will continue to do everything in our power to improve every year.

他們體現了我們員工的健康和福祉，我們將繼續竭盡全力，每年都取得進步。

Turning to business performance.

轉向業務績效。

We delivered solid fourth quarter results and returned $1.96 billion to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends in 2024, and we continue to execute on our goal of repurchasing at least 3 billion of shares between '24 and '25.

我們取得了穩健的第四季業績，並在 2024 年透過股票回購和股息向股東返還了 19.6 億美元，並且我們將繼續執行在 24 年至 25 年期間回購至少 30 億股的目標。

Aluminum packaging continues to outperform other substrates across the globe.

鋁包裝在全球的表現持續優於其他基材。

In EMEA, fourth quarter volume remains strong, driven by continued investment by our customers in canned filling across the region.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，第四季的銷售仍然強勁，這得益於該地區客戶對罐裝填充的持續投資。

In South America, volume growth in Chile and Paraguay was more than offset by softer than anticipated volume performance in Argentina, as well as supply demand tightness in Brazil caused by slower than expected ramp of vital capacity.

在南美，智利和巴拉圭的產量成長被阿根廷產量表現低於預期以及巴西因肺活量成長低於預期而導致的供需緊張所抵消。

In North America, persistent economic pressure on the end consumer and our exposure to US domestic beer led to softer than expected volume.

在北美，終端消費者持續面臨的經濟壓力以及我們對美國國產啤酒的曝險導致銷售低於預期。

Our regional performance culminated involves global beverage can shipments being down low single digits year over year in the fourth quarter and up 1% in 2024.

我們的區域表現最終導致全球飲料罐出貨量在第四季度同比下降個位數，並在 2024 年增長 1%。

Looking to 2025, our Ball business system is in place, and our teams are focused and excited about the opportunity that lies ahead of us to drive operational performance, volume growth and productivity gains.

展望 2025 年，我們的 Ball 業務系統已經到位，我們的團隊專注於推動營運績效、銷售成長和生產力提升的機遇，並對未來充滿期待。

We are laser focused on delivering on our stated goal of exceeding 10% comparable diluted earnings per share growth in 2025 and beyond.

我們專注於實現我們的既定目標，即在 2025 年及以後實現每股攤薄收益成長超過 10%。

As we begin 2025, we feel confident in our ability to deliver 11% to 14% comparable diluted EPS growth.

邁入 2025 年之際，我們有信心達到 11% 至 14% 可比攤薄的每股收益成長。

We anticipate growing global volume in the 2% to 3% range and expect all of our businesses to grow in or above the ranges we laid out at our 2024 Investor Day.

我們預計全球銷量將成長 2% 至 3%，並預計我們所有業務的成長都將達到或超過我們在 2024 年投資者日制定的範圍。

In EMEA, customer movement to cans from other substrates will continue in 2025.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，客戶到2025年將繼續從其他基材轉向罐頭。

We continue to be bullish on the opportunity to drive long-term growth across EMEA as sustainability legislation and the competitive advantages of aluminum packaging increase can penetration from a low base.

隨著永續發展立法和鋁包裝的競爭優勢從低基數開始提高罐頭滲透率，我們繼續看好推動歐洲、中東和非洲地區長期成長的機會。

In South America, recovery in Argentina and Chile, coupled with growth in Brazil is expected to drive volume above our long-term range and operating earnings growth in 2025.

在南美，阿根廷和智利的復甦，加上巴西的成長，預計將推動銷量超出我們的長期範圍，並在 2025 年實現營業利潤成長。

And while our North America business faced volume challenges last year, we have confidence in our ability to deliver volume growth in line with or slightly above market.

儘管我們的北美業務去年面臨銷售挑戰，但我們有能力實現與市場持平或略高於市場的銷售成長。

We have been proactive about extending contracts and have over 85% of our 2026 volume under contract.

我們一直積極延長合同，目前我們 2026 年合約量的 85% 以上已經到期。

That includes signing an extension with one of our largest customers that will take us to nearly the end of the decade.

其中包括與我們最大的客戶之一簽署延期協議，這將使我們的合約持續到本世紀末。

This extension with our global partner also means that we will be building what is effectively a two-line can plant in Oregon.

與我們的全球合作夥伴的這次延期也意味著我們將在俄勒岡州建造一個實際上有兩條生產線的罐頭工廠。

This investment will not change our expected CapEx plans or our share repurchase targets and will give us needed capacity in the market where our customers are also investing.

這項投資不會改變我們預期的資本支出計畫或股票回購目標，並將為我們提供客戶投資市場所需的產能。

Additionally, in January, the company entered into an agreement to purchase Florida Can Manufacturing and it's beverage can facility in Winter Haven, Florida.

此外，今年 1 月，該公司簽署了一項協議，收購佛羅裡達罐頭製造公司及其位於佛羅裡達州溫特黑文的飲料罐工廠。

The transaction which carried a $160 million purchase price closed this morning.

該筆交易的購買價格為 1.6 億美元，今天上午完成。

Our North American business is running at high utilization rates in part of the US.

我們的北美業務在美國部分地區的使用率很高。

And with the growth we expect in the coming years, this capacity will provide us the fuel for growth we need to deliver on our customers' plans.

隨著我們預計未來幾年的成長，這種產能將為我們提供實現客戶計畫所需的成長動力。

We are purchasing this asset for well below replacement value and with our strong balance sheet position, there will be no impact to our share repurchase plans.

我們以遠低於重置價值的價格購買該項資產，並且憑藉我們強勁的資產負債表狀況，這不會對我們的股票回購計劃產生影響。

Lastly, on cups, during the fourth quarter, our Board approved for the company to pursue alternatives for the business.

最後，關於杯子，在第四季度，我們的董事會批准公司尋求業務替代方案。

This includes an option to form a strategic partnership in early 2025, which is expected to result in deconsolidation of the business.

其中包括在 2025 年初建立策略合作夥伴關係的選擇，預計將導致業務分離。

We expect to complete the process in the first quarter.

我們預計在第一季完成這項進程。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Howard to discuss full year and fourth quarter 2024 results, as well as key metrics for 2025.

接下來，我將把主題交給霍華德，討論 2024 年全年和第四季的業績，以及 2025 年的關鍵指標。

Thank you, Dan.

謝謝你，丹。

Starting with our results. 2024 full year comparable diluted earnings per share was $3.17 versus $2.90 in 2023.

從我們的結果開始。 2024 年全年每股可比攤薄收益為 3.17 美元，而 2023 年為 2.90 美元。

Fourth quarter 2024 comparable diluted earnings per share was $0.84 versus $0.78 of the fourth quarter of 2023, an increase of 9.3% and 7.7% respectively.

2024 年第四季可比攤薄每股收益為 0.84 美元，而 2023 年第四季為 0.78 美元，分別成長 9.3% 和 7.7%。

Full year comparable net earnings of $977 million were up year over year driven by strong operational performance, cost management initiatives, and lower interest expense which were able to more than offset the earnings headwinds from the sale of our aerospace business.

全年可比淨利潤為 9.77 億美元，年成長，這得益於強勁的營運業績、成本管理舉措和較低的利息支出，這些足以抵消出售航空航天業務帶來的盈利阻力。

Fourth quarter comparable net earnings of $250 million were up year over year, driven by cost management initiatives as well as lower tax and interest expense which were able to more than offset the earnings headwinds from the sale of our aerospace business.

第四季可比淨利潤為 2.5 億美元，較上年同期有所增長，這得益於成本管理舉措以及稅收和利息支出的降低，這些措施足以抵消出售航空航天業務帶來的盈利阻力。

In North and Central America, stronger than expected performance in December volumes was more than offset by lower than expected volume in October and November.

在北美和中美，12月份銷量優於預期，但10月份和11月份銷量低於預期，抵消了這一差距。

Despite a softer US mass beer category and stretched end consumer, we continue to believe that our 2025 volume will return to growth and will be in line or slightly above market.

儘管美國大眾啤酒類別表現疲軟且終端消費者面臨壓力，但我們仍然相信，到 2025 年，我們的銷售將恢復成長，並與市場持平或略高於市場。

Throughout 2024, our team has done a great job of improving operational efficiencies, lowering costs, and effectively countering measuring risk.

在整個 2024 年，我們的團隊在提高營運效率、降低成本和有效應對衡量風險方面做得非常出色。

And through our Ball business system, we will continue to drive operational improvement in the plants to more profitably serve our customers' growth.

透過我們的 Ball 業務系統，我們將繼續推動工廠的營運改進，以更有利可圖的方式服務客戶的成長。

While we have a tough comp in the first quarter, as well as headwinds from poor weather across the US in January, we expect sequential improvement throughout the quarters, leading to volume growth in 2025.

儘管第一季的業績表現艱難，且 1 月份美國各地惡劣天氣也對我們造成了不利影響，但我們預計接下來幾季的業績將持續改善，從而實現 2025 年的銷售成長。

In EMEA, fourth quarter segment volumes was strong, and the segment comparable operating earnings increased 12.5%, matching our expectations entering the quarter.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，第四季分部銷售強勁，分部可比營業收入成長 12.5%，符合我們本季的預期。

Recent demand trends remain favorable, and the business is on track for significant year over year comparable operating earnings growth in 2025, driven by improving operational efficiencies and volume growth.

最近的需求趨勢依然良好，在營運效率提高和銷售成長的推動下，該業務預計在 2025 年實現年比大幅營業利潤成長。

In South America, segment comparable operating earnings increased slightly while segment volumes declined due to continued weakness in Argentina and the supply demand tightness in Brazil, partially offset by volume growth in Chile and Paraguay.

在南美，由於阿根廷持續疲軟以及巴西供需緊張，分部銷量出現下滑，但智利和巴拉圭銷售成長部分抵消了影響，分部可比營業利潤略有成長。

During the fourth quarter, consumer conditions in Argentina continued to demonstrate some gradual signs of recovery, and we continue to monitor the dynamic economic situation in Argentina and potential scenarios that could impact results.

第四季度，阿根廷的消費狀況持續顯示出一些逐步復甦的跡象，我們將繼續監測阿根廷的動態經濟狀況以及可能影響業績的潛在情況。

To provide additional volume support for our Brazil business, we plan to reopen Pouso Alegre facility.

為了為我們的巴西業務提供額外的產量支持，我們計劃重新開設波蘇阿萊格里工廠。

Looking at the businesses within our other, our personal and home care business, which was previously called aerosol, performed well and grew volume mid single digit in the fourth quarter, and we expect to grow volumes above our long term range in 2025.

看看我們其他的業務，我們的個人和家庭護理業務（以前稱為氣霧劑）表現良好，第四季度銷量增長了中等個位數，我們預計 2025 年銷量將超過我們的長期範圍。

Moving on to additional key financial metrics and goals for 2025.

繼續討論 2025 年的其他關鍵財務指標和目標。

We anticipate year-end 2025 net debt to comparable EBITDA to be 2.75 times as we work to deliver on our stated goals of repurchasing at least $3 billion worth of shares between 2024 and 2025.

我們預計 2025 年底的淨負債與可比較 EBITDA 的比率將達到 2.75 倍，因為我們致力於實現在 2024 年至 2025 年期間回購至少價值 30 億美元的股票的既定目標。

After repurchasing $1.7 billion of shares in 2024, we will repurchase at least $1.3 billion of shares in 2025.

在 2024 年回購 17 億美元股票後，我們將在 2025 年回購至少 13 億美元的股票。

And we'll remain aggressive in repurchasing our stock at what we believe is very attractive pricing.

我們將繼續積極以我們認為非常有吸引力的價格回購我們的股票。

Through today's call, we have repurchased $290 million worth of shares year-to-date.

透過今天的電話會議，我們今年迄今已回購了價值 2.9 億美元的股票。

2025 CapEx is expected to be slightly below D&A in the range of $600 million.

預計 2025 年資本支出將略低於 D&A，約 6 億美元。

We anticipate being able to deliver on our target at comparable net earnings equal to adjusted free cash flow in 2025.

我們預計在 2025 年將能夠實現與調整後自由現金流相當的淨收益目標。

Relative to the estimated tax payments due on the aerospace sale, we now expect total payments to be $875 million.

相對於航空航太銷售應付的預計稅款，我們現在預計總付款額為 8.75 億美元。

We paid a total of $766 million as of the end of the fourth quarter and expect the remaining portion to be paid in the first half of 2025.

截至第四季末，我們共支付了 7.66 億美元，預計剩餘部分將在 2025 年上半年支付。

Our 2025 full year effective tax rate on comparable earnings is expected to be slightly above 22%, largely driven by lower year over year tax credits.

我們預計 2025 年全年可比收益的有效稅率將略高於 22%，這主要受同比稅收抵免減少的影響。

Full year 2025 interest expense is expected to be in the range of $270 million.

預計 2025 年全年利息支出約為 2.7 億美元。

Full year 2025 reported adjusted corporate undistributed costs recorded and other non-reportable as expected to be in the range of $160 million driven higher by lower interest income from the cash proceeds of the aerospace sale.

2025 年全年報告的調整後企業未分配成本和其他不可報告成本預計在 1.6 億美元左右，這主要是由於航空航太銷售現金收益導致的利息收入減少。

And last week Ball's board authorized the repurchase by the company of $4 billion of our common stock through the end of 2027, as well as declared its quarterly cash dividend.

上週，鮑爾公司董事會批准該公司在 2027 年底前回購價值 40 億美元的普通股，並宣布季度現金股利。

Looking ahead to 2025, we are hyperfocused on operational excellence, cost management, driving efficiency and productivity across our business, and monitoring emerging marketing volatility.

展望 2025 年，我們將高度重視卓越營運、成本管理、提高整個業務的效率和生產力以及監控新興的行銷波動。

We are fully committed to maximizing the potential of our company over the long term.

我們全力致力於長期最大限度地發揮公司的潛力。

We have executed on de-risking the corporation through debt retirement, and we have minimal near-term maturities.

我們已經透過債務償還來降低公司的風險，而且我們的短期到期債務數量很少。

The runway is clear for us to activate near-term initiatives to consistently deliver high quality results and generate compounding shareholder returns.

我們已明確準備好啟動近期計劃，持續提供高品質成果並創造複合股東回報。

With that, I'll turn it back to Dan.

說完這些，我就把話題轉回給丹。

Thanks, Howard.

謝謝，霍華德。

The business is operating well and we have future-proofed our business through long-term contract renewals, deleveraging, and footprint optimization.

業務運作良好，我們透過長期合約續約、去槓桿和足跡優化為我們的業務的未來做好了準備。

Through the strength of our portfolio and the unwavering dedication of our employees, we are confident we will deliver on our long-term financial goals of exceeding 10% comparable diluted EPS growth, generating adjusted free cash flow in line with our comparable net earnings, and returning value to shareholders through large scale share repurchase and dividends.

憑藉我們強大的投資組合和員工的堅定奉獻精神，我們有信心實現我們的長期財務目標，即實現超過 10% 的可比攤薄每股收益增長、產生與可比淨收益相符的調整後自由現金流，並透過大規模股票回購和股息為股東帶來價值。

The focus on executing our purpose and our promise was certainly on display during 2024.

2024 年，我們重點介紹了我們執行目標和承諾的決心。

In 2025, we have the opportunity to deliver record adjusted free cash flow and comparable diluted earnings per share.

2025 年，我們有機會實現創紀錄的調整後自由現金流和可比較的每股稀釋收益。

We will continue to meet our customers where they are to deliver affordable, innovative aluminum packaging solutions that can lead to a world free from waste.

我們將繼續滿足客戶的需求，提供經濟實惠、創新的鋁包裝解決方案，創造一個沒有浪費的世界。

Shareholder value creation remains our focus, and we continue to prioritize delivering compounding shareholder returns in 2025 and beyond.

為股東創造價值仍然是我們的重點，我們將繼續優先考慮在 2025 年及以後實現複合股東回報。

We are confident that consistent delivery of high quality results and operational performance, coupled with the significant share repurchases for the foreseeable future in addition to dividends will drive shareholder value creation.

我們相信，持續提供高品質的成果和營運績效，加上可預見的未來除了股利​​之外的大量股票回購將推動股東價值創造。

We appreciate the work being done across the organization.

我們欣賞整個組織所做的工作。

And extend our well-wishes to our employees, customers, suppliers, stakeholders, and everyone listening today.

並向我們的員工、客戶、供應商、利益相關者以及今天聆聽的所有人致以良好的祝愿。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And with that, Christine, we are ready for questions.

克里斯汀，現在我們可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

I guess first question recognizing there's been delays, to what extent have you been able to determine the effect of tariffs and what that might have relative to the guidance that you're providing either in terms of volume and/or supply chain on aluminum?

我想第一個問題是認識到存在延遲，您在多大程度上能夠確定關稅的影響，以及這可能對您在鋁的數量和/或供應鏈方面提供的指導產生什麼影響？

For instance, if there is some impact on Mexican shipments, might that be made up in North America or not?

例如，如果墨西哥的出貨量受到影響，那麼北美能否彌補這一影響？

And then I had a couple of quick follow-ons.

然後我又進行了幾次快速的跟進。

Yeah.

是的。

George, great question.

喬治，這個問題問得好。

I'm on a call every single day and the details obviously are changing relative to tariffs.

我每天都會打電話，有關關稅的細節顯然正在改變。

I think maybe start with what is eminent imminent is what's happening to the aluminum supply chain in China.

我認為，也許首先要考慮的是當前迫在眉睫的中國鋁供應鏈正在發生的事情。

And we have spent the better part of the last few weeks mitigating what started as a potential $40 million to $50 million issue and I think we've got that resolved down to millions of dollars -- a couple million dollars.

我們花了幾週的大部分時間來緩解最初可能涉及 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元的問題，我認為我們已經將損失縮減到數百萬美元——幾百萬美元。

So we've renegotiated deals with the supply base.

因此，我們與供應基地重新談判了交易。

We've enforced elements of our contract.

我們已經執行了合約中的各項內容。

A lot of that metal was going into South America actually because a lot of these supply chain -- metal supply chains have been altered significantly back in the '15 and '16 time frames.

實際上，大量金屬都流向了南美洲，因為許多金屬供應鏈在 2015 年和 2016 年發生了重大變化。

So that one you -- can put that one to bed as it having minimal nominal year over year impact to us.

因此，您可以將其擱置，因為它對我們的名義同比影響很小。

But the -- I think what you're highlighting is our concern would be depending on the size of this or the peace coming across the border from Mexico it would be really end consumer additional pressure there in volume.

但是——我認為你所強調的是，我們的擔憂將取決於此事的規模或墨西哥邊境的和平，這實際上會給最終消費者帶來額外的數量壓力。

The good news is, some of the stuff that comes across the border from Mexico is the growing aspect of your beer portfolio.

好消息是，從墨西哥邊境運來的一些東西正在成為你們啤酒產品組合中日益增長的一部分。

Obviously we've been in constant contact with some of those customers and we've got plans in place to help risk mitigate, but if it's 25%, that's a vastly different story than a 10% versus a 2.5% and the 25% to me would be more concerning just in terms of a pretty stressed in consumer.

顯然，我們一直與其中一些客戶保持聯繫，我們已經制定了計劃來幫助降低風險，但如果風險是 25%，那麼這與 10% 和 2.5% 的情況就大不相同了，而且對我來說，25% 更令人擔憂，因為消費者的壓力很大。

So I would be more concerned about the volume for that aspect of the portfolio, which is not that big for us, but every bit counts these days relative to accumulating a tailwind on growth.

因此，我更關心投資組合這方面的規模，雖然這對我們來說不是很大，但如今每一點都很重要，因為可以累積成長的順風。

So not a lot of detail for you.

因此我不能向您提供太多細節。

The stuff that I know in detail, we've worked, we've mitigated it.

對於我詳細了解的情況，我們已經進行了努力，並已緩解了它。

The other stuff is still in flight.

其餘貨物仍在飛行中。

The 25% number would be more concerning and it would be more concerning relative to end consumer demand, which would certainly dampen our current outlook.

25% 這個數字會更令人擔憂，而且相對於最終消費者需求更令人擔憂，這肯定會抑制我們目前的前景。

And the other question and it's a two parter.

另一個問題由兩個部分組成。

Can you talk about -- and I'll try to make it painless, can you talk a little bit about how these investments you talked about including the Florida can business might affect your earnings and/or volumes?

您能否談談—我會盡量讓您輕鬆回答，您能否談談您談到的這些投資，包括佛羅裡達罐頭業務，將如何影響您的收益和/或銷量？

In other words, would you have been comfortable with the growth outlook you gave if you weren't making these investments, or do you need these to get there?

換句話說，如果您不進行這些投資，您會對您給予的成長前景感到滿意嗎，或者您是否需要這些投資來實現目標？

And then just, look, having covered the company for a while, like a lot of folks on this call, for the last few years, Ball's been very busy.

然後，你看，就像這次電話會議上的許多人一樣，我已經報道該公司一段時間了，過去幾年，鮑爾一直很忙。

But at times, sort of getting to the bottom line, the investments, the activity has not been necessarily as you would have expected.

但有時，從根本上講，投資和活動並不一定像你所預期的那樣。

And so what comfort would you give analysts and investors that you can manage another can plan, you can manage investment and at the same time execute and get to the bottom line to hit your goals?

那麼，您能為分析師和投資者帶來什麼安慰呢？

Good luck in the quarter.

祝本季好運。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I think if I'm following that train of logic, I would just say that I guess over the last couple of years in North America, we've significantly outperformed on earnings.

我想，如果我遵循這個邏輯，我只會說，我想在過去幾年中，在北美，我們的獲利表現明顯優於其他。

So I guess I'm struggling with some of the -- some parts of the question, but I'll answer this in terms of the

所以我想我對這個問題的某些部分感到困惑，但我將按照

(multiple speakers)

（多位發言者）

I mean going back to the can plant additions from the growth boom and how that came through in terms of earnings.

我的意思是回顧經濟成長帶來的罐頭廠增設，以及它是如何對收益產生影響的。

That's where I was going with that.

這就是我要去的地方。

I'm sorry about that.

我很抱歉。

And clearly, you definitely did get great operating leverage over the last couple of years, but that's where I was going with that part of the question.

顯然，過去幾年你確實獲得了巨大的經營槓桿，但這就是我提出這一部分問題的目的。

Yeah.

是的。

Well, the investments have more than paid for themselves by restructuring aged assets that were less productive.

其實，透過重組生產力較低的老舊資產，這些投資已經獲得了豐厚的報酬。

So all of that, I mean if you look at that, it's actually worked out pretty well.

所以，我的意思是，如果你看一下，你會發現這一切實際上效果很好。

The two investments that we have, one, I've said repeatedly that we didn't want to abandon the Northwest marketplace permanently.

我們有兩項投資，第一，我已經反覆說過，我們不想永久放棄西北市場。

So that one shouldn't come as a surprise.

所以這並不令人感到驚訝。

It's in line with investments by our customer in that part of the world.

這與我們客戶在該地區的投資一致。

So it's repositioning that footprint to be more closely aligned to their investments.

因此，它正在重新定位這一足跡，以便與其投資更加緊密地結合。

So that should work well moving forward.

因此這應該會進展順利。

It's a lot of thought in that application of investment there.

在那裡進行投資應用需要深思熟慮。

And then picking up a significantly reduced price point on a great plant that's nearby and existing Tampa facility in a market that's growing.

然後以大幅降低的價格購買附近的優質工廠和不斷增長的市場中現有的坦帕設施。

We're going to really like that in 2026 and beyond.

在 2026 年及以後我們將會非常喜歡這一點。

I think George, maybe just one thing to add is that that Northwest investment that Dan's talking about, that would still be within our envelope of CapEx that we've described.

我認為喬治，也許只需要補充一點，那就是丹談到的西北投資仍然在我們所描述的資本支出範圍內。

And so our CapEx in 2025 will be below D&A and despite that that investment in the Northwest.

因此，儘管在西北地區進行了投資，但我們 2025 年的資本支出將低於 D&A。

And so I wanted to make that clear as well.

所以我也想把這一點說清楚。

And do you need these to hit your goals or these would have been additive to the goals you gave?

您是否需要這些來實現您的目標，或者這些只是您所設定的目標的補充？

Additive in '26.

'26 年的添加物。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Phil Ng。

Volume in North America has been anything but predictable.

北美的銷量一直難以預測。

It's been weaker, but you sounded pretty confident, North America will grow faster than the market and faster than your longer term target.

雖然它一直比較弱，但你聽起來非常有信心，北美的成長速度將快於市場，也快於你的長期目標。

So I guess first out of the gates, what are you seeing?

那我想先你看到了什麼？

And then you called out contract renewal with one of your larger customers in North America, which is great, gives you visibility out years.

然後，您與北美的一家大客戶續簽了合同，這很好，讓您可以預見未來幾年的情況。

Did you pick up any volumes and how should we think about pricing for those contracts that you guys renew?

你們有收到任何訂單嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

I would say 2025.

我認為是 2025 年。

Let me start with that piece.

讓我從那篇開始。

I think the industry is expecting kind of that 1%-ish growth rate.

我認為業界預期的成長率大概是 1% 左右。

For us, obviously, we were lapping 2023 pretty significant marketing dislocation and then last year, we had a sizable share reallocation on one of our major beer partners.

對我們來說，顯然，我們在 2023 年面臨著相當重大的營銷混亂，然後去年，我們對我們的一個主要啤酒合作夥伴進行了相當大的股份重新分配。

So we're stable heading into this year, some incremental volume pick ups.

因此，我們今年的銷售量保持穩定，並有一些增量成長。

And it's going to boil down to health of the end consumer.

而這最終還是取決於最終消費者的健康。

Are you with the right customers with the right partners from a mixed perspective?

從混合角度來看，您是否擁有合適的客戶和合適的合作夥伴？

So I believe we are.

我相信我們確實如此。

So that's why I'm more bullish that will tick a little north of how the market performs.

這就是為什麼我更加看好市場的表現，認為其會略有上漲。

And then relative to pricing, fairly stable in the out years relative to the large customer contract that we picked up.

然後相對於定價，相對於我們簽訂的大客戶合同，未來幾年定價相當穩定。

Some of that obviously when you're making investments on behalf of those customers, you're able to offer a different value proposition.

顯然，當您代表這些客戶進行投資時，您能夠提供不同的價值主張。

So that's created some structure and some stabilization for us relative to that customer.

因此，這為我們相對於該客戶創建了一些結構和穩定性。

Any share gains and volumes picked up as part of that investment with that customer?

作為對該客戶的投資的一部分，有任何份額收益和交易量增加嗎？

We believe that we've picked up I would say -- I would characterize it this way, I think where we have a secured volume, we believe that'll be -- it'll be growing at a faster rate than their portfolio given some of the pressure, for instance, in the Northwest on some anti-plastic sentiment.

我們相信我們已經有所收穫，我想說——我會這樣描述它，我認為只要我們有固定的數量，我們就相信——考慮到一些壓力，例如西北地區的反塑料情緒，它的增長速度將比他們的投資組合更快。

And then when I think about Dan, how you've historically been aligned globally and certainly, North America as well, you guys have been aligned with the big brands, big customers.

然後當我想到丹時，你們過去是如何在全球範圍內保持一致的，當然在北美也是如此，你們一直與大品牌、大客戶保持一致。

And when I think about North America, frankly, there's been a lot of innovation in the beverage industry, and a lot of that's actually coming from smaller brands and entrepreneurs whether it's ready to drink cocktails, non-alcoholic beers, and actually non-alcoholic beverages on that ready to drink side functional soda and stuff of that nature.

坦白說，當我想到北美時，飲料行業已經有很多創新，其中許多實際上來自較小的品牌和企業家，無論是即飲雞尾酒、無酒精啤酒，還是即飲功能性蘇打水等無酒精飲料。

So my question to you is, how is your growth to market strategy perhaps evolving?

所以我想問一下，你們的市場成長策略是如何發展的？

Are you going after some of these customers in a bigger way just because demand's been pretty mute in North America and the big concerns have been is this a structural dynamic you can't grow out of?

您是否會以更大的規模去爭取這些客戶，只是因為北美的需求一直很低迷，而最大的擔憂是這是否是您無法擺脫的結構性動態？

So how is your go to market strategy pivoting in an evolving marketplace where there's still a lot of innovation out there?

那麼，在一個不斷發展、仍有許多創新的市場中，您的市場策略將如何轉變？

No, I think that's a great comment, Phil.

不，我認為這是一條很棒的評論，菲爾。

So historically, I mean we're kind of with everybody in the marketplace.

所以從歷史上看，我們與市場上的每個人都有聯繫。

Our portfolio is exponentially larger than any of our competitors in terms of the customer and the category mix.

就客戶和類別組合而言，我們的產品組合比任何競爭對手都要大得多。

We've got a pretty healthy balance across everything.

我們在所有事物上都保持著相當健康的平衡。

It's interesting, you commented on ready to drink cocktails.

有趣的是，您評論了即飲雞尾酒。

So one of our bigger customers actually acquired the brand that owns 40% of the ready to drink cocktail.

因此，我們的一個大客戶實際上收購了擁有 40% 即飲雞尾酒的品牌。

So these two things generally, if they're really successful innovative launches, they typically get acquired.

因此一般來說，如果這兩款產品的創新發布真的非常成功，它們通常都會被收購。

So you've got -- you have to play -- candidly, you have to play kind of who are the acquires, who are the innovators.

所以你必須 — — 坦白說，你必須搞清楚誰是被收購者，誰是創新者。

You kind of start there with your anchor investors and then you work both sides of the equation to help stimulate product launches.

你可以從基石投資者開始，然後透過雙方的努力來刺激產品的推出。

And so the poppies of the world, the liquid death, so it's like they're large in our portfolio.

因此，世界上的罌粟、液體死亡，在我們的投資組合中佔有很大的比重。

So but it's hard to if Coke is growing and ABI is growing and the large customers are growing, we're going to grow.

所以，如果可口可樂在成長，ABI 在成長，大客戶也在成長，那麼我們也會成長，很難說。

If they're not growing, you can have all of the startups in the world and you're just not going to move the needle on the size of volume.

如果它們沒有成長，那麼即使擁有世界上所有的新創企業，你也無法在規模上取得任何進展。

So there's definitely a balance.

因此肯定存在著一種平衡。

I don't think we've moved away from innovation, driving sustainability with the -- and helping the smaller innovation driven brands and customers in the marketplace, but at the same time, you got to help make sure that your key partners are winning in the market, and that's really how you're going to win.

我認為我們並沒有放棄創新、推動永續發展，也沒有放棄幫助市場上較小的創新驅動品牌和客戶，但同時，你必須確保你的關鍵合作夥伴在市場上獲勝，這才是你真正獲勝的方式。

Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

甘沙姆·潘賈比，貝爾德。

Dan, going back to the Analyst Day from June of last year where you spent a fair amount of time on some of the productivity initiatives that we're going to unfold over a multiyear basis, largely in North America.

丹，回顧去年 6 月的分析師日，當時您花了大量時間討論我們將在多年內實施的一些生產力舉措，主要在北美。

And to put that in just kind of given what you've done or have announced with Oregon, and also the acquisition in Florida, does that allow you the opportunity -- a bigger opportunity as it relates to reconfiguration of the footprint and to re-accelerate that productivity because it's not like volumes are growing faster in the industry relative to those two additions?

並且考慮到您在俄勒岡州所做或宣布的事情，以及在佛羅裡達州的收購，這是否為您提供了機會 - 一個更大的機會，因為它與重新配置足跡和重新加速生產力有關，因為與這兩個新增項目相比，行業的產量增長速度並不快？

I think these -- once these are in place, yes, you'll be able to pick up efficiencies.

我認為，一旦這些到位，是的，你將能夠提高效率。

We didn't vacate demand, for instance, in the Northwest.

例如，我們沒有放棄西北地區的需求。

So you're shipping in that demand.

所以您正在運送這種需求。

So that will be a benefit, right, in terms of delivered cost.

所以從交付成本的角度來看這將是一個好處。

And then it's we're acquiring an incredibly efficient asset base down in Florida that we can do some things relative to running different can sizes and then becoming more efficient on lines within that subregion.

然後我們在佛羅裡達州獲得了令人難以置信的高效資產基礎，我們可以做一些與運行不同尺寸的罐子相關的事情，然後提高該子區域內生產線的效率。

So we just closed a deal today.

所以我們今天剛剛達成了交易。

So we've got some ideas on what we're going to do, but we're going to have to get in there and do that.

因此，我們對要做的事情有一些想法，但我們必須付諸行動。

But yes, that will -- anytime, you've got incredibly efficient assets, well run assets that gives you opportunity to be more flexible in a system of our size.

但是的，那將會——任何時候，你都擁有令人難以置信的高效資產，運作良好的資產，這讓你有機會在我們規模的系統中變得更加靈活。

And then as it relates to Europe, obviously Europe was a very nice surprise I would say for the industry from a volume perspective last year, how are you thinking about 2025 as it relates to volume growth, tougher comparisons and just the fact that it is Europe?

然後就歐洲而言，顯然歐洲去年從銷售角度來看對該行業來說是一個非常令人驚訝的市場，您如何看待 2025 年的銷量增長、更嚴格的比較以及它是歐洲這一事實？

So.

所以。

Yeah.

是的。

Well, as we sit here today, like we thought we'd be entering into -- 2023 fourth quarter, there was the destocking event that took place which muted volume.

好吧，當我們今天坐在這裡時，就像我們以為我們將進入 2023 年第四季度一樣，發生了去庫存事件，導致交易量減少。

Then everybody got off to a pretty good start in the first quarter.

然後每個人在第一節都有一個很好的開局。

So I thought the comp would be a little bit more challenging this year '25 versus '24 because of that sequencing of events and we're off to a really good start there.

因此我認為，由於事件的順序，25 年的比賽會比 24 年更具挑戰性，而我們在這方面已經有了一個很好的開始。

So I think it's just, listen, we've always talked about the opportunities that Europe presents because it's got the lowest can penetration.

所以我認為，聽著，我們一直在談論歐洲帶來的機遇，因為歐洲的罐頭普及率最低。

And as it evolves into a focus on carbon footprint, we've got a great product for that.

隨著人們逐漸關注碳足跡，我們推出了一款出色的產品。

It's a glass-rich environment in Europe, as you know.

如你們所知，歐洲的玻璃資源十分豐富。

And I think the health of the end consumer to some extent is a little more balanced in terms of our customers not necessarily being able to put through price at the same rate with the same veracity that they're able to in North America.

我認為，最終消費者的健康狀況在某種程度上更加平衡，因為我們的客戶不一定能夠以與北美相同的價格和相同的準確性獲得價格。

And as a result of that, I think it's a really stable environment for continued growth and we're fortunate that we put in place a couple of large assets there to grow into and we're continuing to grow into those.

因此，我認為這是一個非常穩定的持續成長環境，我們很幸運在那裡建立了一些大型資產以供發展，我們將繼續發展。

So I think we'll be at the high end of our long term guidance for Europe again this year.

因此我認為今年我們對歐洲的長期預期將再次達到最高水準。

Stefan Diaz, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的史蒂芬·迪亞茲。

Maybe first, going back to North America, do you need to see low single digit volume growth to be able to hit your EPS guide, or can we sort of have like a flat to down environment in 2025 and still grow earnings just considering the shares you're buying back?

首先，回到北美，您是否需要看到低個位數的銷售成長才能達到您的每股盈餘指南，或者我們是否可以在 2025 年看到一種持平或下降的環境，並且僅考慮到您回購的股票，收益仍能增長？

Or maybe is it just as simple as if you grow 2% to 3% globally, you should be able to hit your EPS guide?

或者可能只是簡單到只要你的全球成長 2% 到 3%，你就應該能夠達到你的 EPS 指導價？

Yeah.

是的。

I'd say for a negative print on volume that looks like what we did this year, I think we'll be very challenged to hit EPS target even with share buyback at a more aggressive rate.

我想說，對於像我們今年所做的那樣的銷售負面印刷，即使以更積極的速度回購股票，我認為我們也將面臨實現每股收益目標的挑戰。

A flattish environment offset by maybe a little bit more growth in Europe, I think it's probably a good recipe to deliver the range we outlined, but yeah, we're getting to a point where you're going to need some growth in North America.

平淡的環境可能被歐洲的稍微增長所抵消，我認為這可能是實現我們概述的範圍的一個好方法，但是是的，我們現在已經到了需要在北美實現一些增長的地步。

It's not only the profitability associated with the volume growth, it's also really hard to offset negative volume of productivity gains.

獲利能力不僅與產量成長有關，也很難抵消生產力成長帶來的負面作用。

At some point, we're a volume business.

從某種程度上來說，我們是一個批量業務。

We've done a lot of heavy lifting and done some tremendous things to increase the level of profitability in North America, but you'll start running into a bit more of a challenged environment relative to North America, and then you'll have to rely more on mix and some other things to steer you to a heavier profitability lift there.

我們做了很多繁重的工作，做了一些了不起的事情來提高北美的盈利水平，但與北美相比，你會開始遇到一個更具挑戰性的環境，然後你將不得不更多地依賴組合和其他一些東西來引導你在那裡實現更大的盈利提升。

But yeah, I'm feeling really good where we're at right now starting the year.

不過是的，我對我們現在開始新的一年的狀況感覺非常好。

Things are pointing in the right direction with the strength of Europe in the event that things don't materialize in the growth in North America, but certainly growth is going to at some point an important cog if not necessary to expand margins.

如果北美的成長未能實現，那麼在歐洲的推動下，事情將朝著正確的方向發展，但毫無疑問，成長在某種程度上將成為擴大利潤率的一個重要齒輪，甚至是必要的。

And then so the last couple calls now, you noted a supply demand mismatch in Brazil.

在最近的幾次通話中，您注意到巴西的供需不符。

So I guess maybe how are your inventory levels in the region and maybe how is demand shaken out versus your expectations so far quarter quarter to date?

所以我想問一下您所在地區的庫存水準如何？

And then maybe if you could also just parse out Brazil volumes in the quarter versus Argentina volumes just so it's easier for us to compare versus your competitors.

然後也許您也可以分析一下本季巴西的銷量與阿根廷的銷量，這樣我們就可以更輕鬆地與您的競爭對手進行比較。

Sure.

當然。

So Brazil grew in the fourth quarter.

因此巴西在第四季度實現了成長。

We didn't.

我們沒有。

I would say we entered into -- we're managing certainly the downturn in Argentina aggressively from a cost perspective in the second and third quarter.

我想說的是，我們在第二季和第三季從成本角度積極應對阿根廷的經濟衰退。

We were doing the same thing in Chile, which has been soft and has declined for the last two or three years.

我們在智利也做了同樣的事情，過去兩、三年來，智利經濟一直疲軟，並且持續下滑。

And then Brazil was kind of low single digit growth for the first two quarters.

而巴西前兩季的經濟成長則略低於個位數。

And we also were running a much tighter capacity outlook within our network there.

而且我們也在那裡運行著更嚴格的網路容量預期。

And then suddenly, it got real hot at the end of Q3.

然後突然間，在第三季末，情況變得非常火爆。

So we entered.

於是我們就進去了。

We were tight and running short on inventory positions at the end of Q3.

第三季末，我們的庫存緊張，即將短缺。

We started turning on a curtailed mine in Argentina, a curtailed mine in Chile, multiple curtailed mines in Brazil, and as we said in the opening, we're turning back on a curtailed plant, but that's just taking longer than we anticipated.

我們開始重啟阿根廷的一個限產礦山、智利的一個限產礦山、巴西的多個限產礦山，而且正如我們在開頭所說的那樣，我們正在重啟一個限產工廠，但這比我們預期的要花費更長的時間。

So we'll return to growth in Q1 and we'll grow in excess of our long term outlook next year because we're seeing recovery in Chile, we're seeing recovery in Argentina.

因此，我們將在第一季恢復成長，並且明年的成長將超過我們的長期預期，因為我們看到智利和阿根廷正在復甦。

We'll be fit to serve Brazil and we'll be coming off in much easier comp obviously in Q3 and Q4 '25 versus '24.

我們將以良好的狀態為巴西隊效力，而且與 2024 年相比，2025 年第三季和第四季的比賽顯然會更加輕鬆。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)

Yeah, in previous quarters, you've kind of been able to grow EBIT year over year without much volume growth.

是的，在前幾個季度，在沒有太多銷售成長的情況下，你們能夠實現息稅前利潤的逐年增長。

And I guess that change in 4Q.

我猜測第四季將會發生變化。

I'm just wondering did you, I don't know, lap any key cost saves or were there any kind of PPI pass throughs or change in price mix?

我只是想知道您是否注意到任何關鍵的成本節約，或者是否存在任何形式的 PPI 轉嫁或價格組合變化？

I guess maybe you lapped the Wallkill plant closure but I'm just curious if there was anything that kind of drove that leverage.

我猜也許你已經了解了 Wallkill 工廠的關閉情況，但我只是好奇是否有什麼東西推動了這種影響。

Yeah.

是的。

I think you're talking specifically about North America.

我認為您具體談論的是北美。

We've done -- listen, we're running to historical asset utilization rates now.

我們已經完成了—聽著，我們現在正在計算歷史資產利用率。

So we've done kind of the heavy lifting over the last couple years.

所以我們在過去幾年做了一些繁重的工作。

So we've lapped that.

我們已經完成這個任務了。

So in many respects what you're describing is yes, we're going to have to get a little bit of growth.

所以，從很多方面來說，您所描述的都是肯定的，我們必須取得一點成長。

I think the new investments that we're making will also give us an opportunity to create an even more efficient supply chain with the Florida can investment in particular.

我認為，我們正在進行的新投資也將為我們帶來機會，以佛羅裡達州的投資來創造更有效率的供應鏈。

So there are things that we can do now that we have that asset in the portfolio, but yeah, we're tight and we're also obviously shipping products as I indicated to an earlier question into the Northwest.

因此，既然我們的投資組合中有了這項資產，我們就可以做一些事情，但是，是的，我們很緊張，而且我們顯然也在向西北地區運送產品，正如我在之前的問題中所指出的那樣。

So there's inefficiency relative to that.

因此，相對於這一點，效率是低的。

That will lap once we get the new facility up in Oregon.

一旦我們在俄勒岡州建立了新工廠，這一點就會實現。

So there's opportunities there to do some more and gain productivity, but turning on curtailed lines and running them is going to be the most efficient way to lever up margin wise.

因此，有機會做更多的事情並提高生產力，但啟動和運行有限的生產線將是提高利潤率最有效的方法。

And then can you maybe talk about operating rates or sort of system utilization in Europe?

那麼您能談談歐洲的營運率或系統利用率嗎？

I guess volume growth has probably been ahead of other regions, but I don't think you've added a lot of capacity in recent years.

我想，產量成長可能已經領先其他地區，但我認為近年來你們的產能並沒有增加很多。

I'm just wondering if there's anything kind of in the CapEx plan for '25, '26 for Europe or opportunities for the debottlenecking or new lines or anything like that.

我只是想知道 25 年和 26 年的資本支出計劃中是否有針對歐洲的內容，或者是否有消除瓶頸或新生產線的機會或諸如此類的東西。

Yeah.

是的。

We have -- I guess over the last two to three years, we've added two huge facilities, one in the UK and one in the Czech Republic.

我想，在過去的兩三年裡，我們增加了兩個大型工廠，一個在英國，一個在捷克共和國。

So we've been -- those will both be four line plants by the end of next year.

所以我們——到明年年底，它們都將成為四條生產線的工廠。

So we have done some incremental line enhancements and investments and that's been able to lift us.

因此，我們對線路進行了一些增量改進和投資，這對我們起到了提升作用。

It's actually getting quite tight all throughout Europe right now.

目前整個歐洲的情況其實相當緊張。

Over there's a lack of capacity to meet the demand in the UK.

英國缺乏滿足需求的產能。

So we're looking at things there.

所以我們正在那裡觀察事物。

But yeah, that -- if these growth rates continue, I mean that's a big market growing at 3%, 4%, 5%.

但是的，如果這些成長率持續下去，我的意思是這是一個以 3%、4%、5% 的速度成長的龐大市場。

So that would -- that's going to require probably think about '27, '28 to be doing other things in that part of the world.

所以那可能需要考慮 27 年、28 年在世界的那個地方做其他事情。

Mike Roxland, Truist.

麥克·羅克克蘭，Truist。

Just wanted to talk to you about the competitive backdrop.

只是想和你談談競爭背景。

There have been some concerns out there in North America anyway that pricing could be a risk later this year or early next year when some big contracts come up for for renewal.

無論如何，北美一直存在一些擔憂，即今年稍後或明年年初一些大合約續約時，定價可能會帶來風險。

Obviously, Dan, you addressed one of them.

顯然，丹，你提到了其中的一個。

As you mentioned, you got that extend to the end of the next decade or this decade, I should say, but just trying to get a sense from you as to what the competitive environment is like, particularly given softer demand, maybe some competitors looking to gain share.

正如您所說，我應該說這種趨勢會延續到下一個十年或這個十年末，但我只是想從您那裡了解一下競爭環境是什麼樣的，特別是在需求疲軟的情況下，也許一些競爭對手正在尋求獲得市場份額。

And I think in a recent conference, you also called out as the Midwest in particular is being somewhat challenged.

我認為在最近的一次會議上，您也指出中西部地區尤其面臨一定的挑戰。

Yeah.

是的。

I think I've been pretty consistent on this, Michael.

我想我在這一點上一直很堅持，邁克爾。

As you know, there -- when you look at the number of facilities that were built, there was quite a few facilities built in the upper Midwest.

如您所知，當您查看已建造的設施數量時，您會發現在中西部上游地區建造了相當多的設施。

Northern Kentucky region, and the demand growth has really been on the coast in the Southeast in Texas.

肯塔基州北部地區，而需求成長實際上集中在德克薩斯州東南部沿海地區。

So there are reasons for those bills.

因此這些法案是有理由的。

I think there were a lot of subsidies that went into those bills, but they're not necessarily positioned for the demand profile moving forward.

我認為這些法案中包含了許多補貼，但它們不一定適合未來的需求狀況。

With that said, we're tight.

話雖如此，我們的關係還是很緊密的。

We've structured our asset base in a way that has enabled us to be tight but also be very close with our strategic partners to make sure that we're doing the right things for them.

我們對資產基礎進行了結構調整，使得我們與策略夥伴保持緊密聯繫，同時又能確保為他們做正確的事。

Medium and long term, that was rewarded in the contract renewal.

從中期和長期來看，這將透過續約獲得回報。

Relatively speaking, the pricing that we're seeing is better than the past 20 years minus the pricing that we were securing during a massively under supplied marketplace.

相對而言，我們看到的定價比過去 20 年減去我們在供應嚴重不足的市場中獲得的定價要好。

So they're really healthy margins to make money and flow cash and manage.

因此，他們確實擁有健康的利潤率來賺錢、流動現金和管理。

They could potentially not be as good as what we were looking at three years ago.

它們可能不如我們三年前看到的那麼好。

I'm talking about incremental differences, not meaningful differences, but I think we're happy with what we're securing and at the prices we're securing, and we think we can grow and expand margins based on that and flow really nice cash.

我說的是增量差異，而不是有意義的差異，但我認為我們對我們所獲得的利益和所獲得的價格感到滿意，並且我們認為我們可以在此基礎上增長和擴大利潤率，並獲得真正可觀的現金。

One quick follow up.

快速跟進一下。

Just in terms of beer, obviously category still lagging.

僅就啤酒而言，顯然該類別仍然落後。

We're still trying to figure out the SKUs, the mix, how to target both premium and discount without getting stuck in the middle.

我們仍在嘗試確定庫存單位 (SKU) 和產品組合，以及如何同時瞄準高端和折扣，而不陷入中間困境。

How far along do you think the beer companies are in this process?

您認為啤酒公司在這過程中進展到哪一步了？

And I'll throw it out there.

我就把它丟到那裡。

When do you expect beer demand to inflect higher?

您預計啤酒需求何時會上漲？

Any sense when that could ultimately turn?

有什麼跡象表明這種情況最終會在何時發生轉變？

Honestly, I don't know the inflection.

說實話，我不知道語調是什麼。

I would expect it would be a very aggressive behavior here in the peak season coming up in North America.

我預計，在北美即將到來的旺季，這將是一個非常激進的行為。

You're starting to see -- I even saw one of our customers today just in a non-alcohol range there, the pricing is not enough to grow the top line.

你開始看到——我今天甚至看到我們的一個客戶只購買不含酒精的飲料，其定價不足以實現營業額的成長。

So I think once they start hitting these price elasticity curves where they cannot grow the top line, I think behavioral patterns will change.

因此我認為，一旦他們開始達到這些價格彈性曲線而無法實現營收成長，行為模式就會改變。

I think some of the plans I've seen.

我認為我已經看到了一些計劃。

I'm encouraged.

我深受鼓舞。

I really do think it's going to be what customer or what partner you have is going to matter.

我確實認為，你擁有什麼樣的客戶或什麼樣的合作夥伴很重要。

Obviously some of the folks that had really nice growth trajectory, they're dealing with tariffs right now and they're dealing with how they make sense out of that.

顯然，一些擁有非常好的成長軌跡的公司現在正在處理關稅問題，並且正在思考如何解決這個問題。

I think that'll continue to grow medium and long term because of the relationship they have with the population growth that prefers those products and then others I think are going to get more focused on their portfolio.

我認為從中長期來看，這一趨勢將繼續增長，因為它們與偏好這些產品的人口增長有著密切的關係，而其他人也會更加關注他們的投資組合。

There's going to be some new innovation that comes out and the folks that have struck a nice balance between being a beverage company and being a beer company, those are the ones that I believe will win medium and long term.

一些新的創新將會出現，而那些在飲料公司和啤酒公司之間取得良好平衡的公司，我相信將在中長期內獲得勝利。

And I think we have an overweight to them.

我認為我們對他們的負擔過重。

That's a great question.

這是一個很好的問題。

When are we going to see it?

我們什麼時候可以看到它？

And the end consumer obviously still weak.

而終端消費者顯然依然疲軟。

You're in the dry January portion of the year.

一年中，一月份的氣候乾燥。

So no surprises here that you see softness in the beer side right now.

因此，現在看到啤酒市場疲軟也就不足為奇了。

Things start to pick up here.

事情開始好轉了。

Right now, with the Super Bowl week and then beyond that, heading into spring break, weather patterns, that'll all be important to see pricing behaviors and I think hopefully a return to volume growth being the principal driver of their economic decisions.

現在，隨著超級盃週以及之後的春假臨近，天氣模式的變化，這些對於定價行為都很重要，我認為希望銷售成長能夠成為他們經濟決策的主要驅動力。

And good luck in '25.

祝你25年好運。

Mike Leithead, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的麥克萊特黑德。

I have two semi-related questions.

我有兩個半相關的問題。

Howard, just a quick housekeeping.

霍華德，只是做一點簡單的家事。

I think the release dates you plan to deconsolidate cups starting in 2025, I think in the past, you've talked about it being about a $40 million drag.

我認為您計劃從 2025 年開始拆分杯子的發布日期，我想在過去，您曾談到這將是一個 4000 萬美元的拖累。

So is that a $40 million earnings tailwind as we think about '25 year over year?

那麼，當我們考慮 25 年同比時，這是否是 4,000 萬美元的盈利順風？

Yeah, Mike.

是的，麥克。

I think it depends on when we're able to get to a full agreement here as it relates to the joint venture structure.

我認為這取決於我們何時能夠就合資結構達成全面協議。

As it is today, those losses associated with cups are still flowing through right now in the quarter.

正如今天的情況一樣，與杯子相關的損失仍然在本季度持續存在。

And so timing matters here.

因此，時機很重要。

If we assume that we had talked about $40 million historically and we go through the first quarter, get this transaction done, then it's probably somewhere around the $25 million that we'd see improvement year over year.

如果我們假設我們過去談論的是 4000 萬美元，而我們在第一季完成了這筆交易，那麼我們可能會看到同比有所改善，達到 2500 萬美元左右。

And then second, on the share repurchase, if I do the math, it's about $1.3 billion, I believe, of repurchases this year, which today is about 8.5% of the company.

其次，關於股票回購，如果我算一下，我認為今年的回購金額約為 13 億美元，約占公司股份的 8.5%。

So is cups and buybacks the largest drivers of the 10% year over year EPS growth?

那麼，杯子和回購是每股盈餘年增 10% 的最大驅動力嗎？

Or just how should we think about core beverage can earnings growth compared to '24?

或者我們應該如何看待核心飲料罐獲利相對於24年的成長？

I mean I think we're going to see some -- obviously operating earnings growth is going to matter.

我的意思是，我認為我們會看到一些東西——顯然營業利潤成長將很重要。

When we talked about the algo, certainly Dan's talked about the North America piece and maybe a little bit of challenges there, but we feel very good about our growth profile both in terms of volume and the leverage associated with operating earnings in EMEA as well as in South America.

當我們談論演算法時，丹當然談到了北美部分，也許那裡存在一些挑戰，但我們對我們的成長狀況感到非常滿意，無論是在數量方面，還是在與歐洲、中東和非洲以及南美的營業收入相關的槓桿方面。

We're bullish on Argentina and the green shoots that we're seeing there.

我們對阿根廷以及那裡出現的復甦跡象充滿信心。

The macros certainly are going to improve.

宏肯定會得到改進。

And so I think that there's no reason to believe that we're not going to be able to achieve that healthy aIgo in that region as well.

因此我認為沒有理由相信我們不能在該地區實現這一健康目標。

And then, as you said, I mean we are going to have a significant amount of share buyback and the like.

然後，正如你所說，我的意思是我們將進行大量的股票回購等等。

One thing to keep in mind is that, we will see less interest income this year because with the proceeds associated with the aerospace sale, we had over $42 million of interest income that won't repeat year over year.

需要記住的一點是，今年我們的利息收入將會減少，因為透過航空航太銷售的相關收益，我們有超過 4,200 萬美元的利息收入不會逐年重複。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

瑞穗的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯 (Edlain Rodriguez)。

I mean big picture question, Dan.

我指的是宏觀問題，丹。

I mean in terms of now you have questions that whether beer or alcoholic drinks might be bad for your health.

我的意思是，現在您可能會問啤酒或酒精飲料是否會對您的健康有害。

But I think somebody has said, it's probably cancerous or dangerous for you.

但我認為有人說過，它可能是癌症或對你有危險。

So at the margin, this will make some people think twice about drinking alcohol, not being included.

因此，從邊際上來說，這會讓一些人對飲酒三思而後行，不被包括在內。

So of all the things that you think about that keeps you awake at night, is this one of them, is this or should this be one of them?

那麼，在您想到的所有讓您徹夜難眠的事情中，這是其中之一嗎？

Like any thoughts there would be appreciated.

任何想法都會受到讚賞。

You're probably asking the wrong guy because I enjoy my alcohol.

你可能問錯人了，因為我喜歡喝酒。

But

但

--

--

You and me, both.

你和我都是。

Yeah, I really don't.

是的，我確實不知道。

We seem that -- we see I think we've known it's probably not at moderation, everything.

我們似乎——我們看到我認為我們已經知道它可能並不在適度範圍內，一切。

I mean I don't want to go down this path with you, but the thing that keeps me up at night right now is the health of the end consumer in North America.

我的意思是，我不想跟你走這條路，但現在讓我夜不能寐的是北美終端消費者的健康狀況。

That's what keeps me up at night.

這就是讓我徹夜難眠的原因。

All of this other stuff is noise.

所有這些其他的東西都是噪音。

And that's what I'm hearing from our customers as well.

這也是我從客戶那裡聽到的。

So until which time I can sift through a return to some normal spending patterns by the end consumers, this stuff is really -- it's on the radar as it should be, but it's not -- we're not losing sleep over this.

因此，直到我能夠篩選出最終消費者恢復正常消費模式之前，這些事情確實 - 它應該受到關注，但事實並非如此 - 我們不會為此失眠。

This is not going to in the next three to five years create a challenge for us in the slightest.

這在未來三到五年內不會為我們帶來絲毫挑戰。

In fact, beer -- you're counting on beer growth everywhere else in the world.

事實上，啤酒——你指望的是世界其他地方的啤酒銷量都會成長。

I mean if beer doesn't grow, then we're not growing in the can.

我的意思是，如果啤酒產量不成長，那麼罐裝啤酒的產量也無法成長。

So it doesn't seem to be a concern in other parts of the world, but it seems to be a focus of a lot of conversation in North America.

因此，這似乎不是世界其他地區關心的問題，但在北美，這似乎是許多人談論的焦點。

So it's dislocated in that sense.

從這個意義上來說，它是脫位的。

But yeah, I wish I had a better answer for you.

但是的，我希望我能給你一個更好的答案。

But no, that's good enough.

但不，這樣就足夠了。

And just to follow up in terms of the share buyback, I mean, of course, the share price has come down quite a bit over the past couple of weeks, months.

關於股票回購的後續情況，我的意思是，當然，在過去幾週和幾個月裡，股價已經下跌了不少。

Like what are you thinking in terms of the pace of the share buyback?

例如，您對股票回購的步伐有什麼想法？

Are you trying -- are you -- should we be thinking like more aggressive in the near term or just going to be like more disciplined systematic throughout the year?

您是否嘗試—您是否—我們是否應該在短期內採取更積極的措施，還是在全年採取更有紀律的系統措施？

Everyone, I think you've seen our behavior here and I think I indicated even earlier that we bought back $290 million worth of shares in a month plus.

各位，我想你們已經看到了我們的行為，我想我甚至早些時候就指出過，我們在一個多月內回購了價值 2.9 億美元的股票。

So the answer to your question is yes.

因此，你的問題的答案是肯定的。

We see this as an opportunity for us to be overly aggressive perhaps and with the value of the stock, we're going to lean into that here in the short term.

我們認為這可能是我們採取過度激進行動的機會，考慮到股票的價值，我們將在短期內傾向於此。

Certainly, recognizing that, we'll likely exceed the $1.3 billion worth of shares here in 2025.

當然，認識到這一點，我們的股票價值很可能在 2025 年超過 13 億美元。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯·帕金森（Chris Parkinson），沃爾夫研究公司。

Could you just give us a little bit more color since you went over the beer thesis on what you're seeing in energy markets in particular in both the US and Europe?

在您回顧了啤酒論文之後，您能否向我們詳細介紹您對美國和歐洲能源市場的看法？

There's been a lot of noise over the last 6 to 12 months.

過去 6 到 12 個月出現了許多噪音。

So just hoping to hear kind of the best updates there as well.

所以只是希望也能聽到那裡最好的更新消息。

Yeah.

是的。

I think Europe is probably pretty easy.

我認為歐洲可能相當容易。

Our Europe energy portfolio is growing at high mid single digits.

我們的歐洲能源投資組合正以中高個位數成長。

So and that has continued to perform that way for the last five, six, seven years.

過去五、六、七年來，這種情況一直持續下去。

So not a lot of change on that front.

因此在這方面沒有太大的變化。

I think in North America, there are tiers to the energy drink, classification.

我認為在北美，能量飲料是分等級的。

One product, I think one of the larger products, it's definitely tied to Hispanic population, the construction industry and so interest rates matter to that particular product.

我認為，一種產品是較大的產品之一，它肯定與西班牙裔人口、建築業息息相關，因此利率對該特定產品很重要。

Others have different effects.

其他的則有不同的效果。

The end consumer though matters.

但最終消費者很重要。

Now what we're seeing kind of right out of the gate is more aggressive pricing, and we're seeing growth through January in the energy segment.

現在我們看到的首先是更激進的定價，我們看到 1 月能源領域的成長。

So I think they're in a place where they have a lot more price, I think, to work with relative to their products to push for growth in some instances, and I think you're going to see that a much more competitive baseline to grow volume and grow share, which is good.

因此，我認為他們現在擁有更高的價格，可以相對於他們的產品進行操作，從而在某些情況下推動增長，而且我認為你會看到一個更具競爭力的基礎來增加銷量和份額，這是好事。

I haven't seen the same behavioral pattern in beer, but energy looks to be an area where I think you'll have a return to growth in 2025 in North America and it will maintain growth at similar rates in Europe.

我還沒有在啤酒領域看到同樣的行為模式，但我認為能源領域在 2025 年北美將恢復成長，並且在歐洲將保持類似的成長速度。

And just in terms of the longer term South American, I'll go putting, let's put Argentina aside for a second.

就長期的南美而言，我將暫時把阿根廷放在一邊。

There's been a lot going on once again in terms of customer, or let's say industry bankruptcies to a few rainy carnivals post-COVID, all that stuff.

就客戶而言，或者說就產業破產而言，到疫情過後舉行的幾場雨天狂歡節，諸如此類的事情，又發生了很多事情。

When you take a stance, right here right now heading into '25, how much confidence do you have in that through growth rate, at least in Brazil and forecasting that, aluminum should still be the primary substrate winner versus class and everything else.

當您採取立場時，就在現在，即將進入25年，您對透過成長率實現的這一目標有多大信心，至少在巴西是這樣，並且預測鋁仍然應該是相對於其他類別和其他所有類別的主要基板贏家。

Just any comments there would be also very helpful.

任何評論都將非常有幫助。

Yeah.

是的。

We believe that there'll be growth in Brazil.

我們相信巴西將會成長。

It'll be in that kind of 2%, 3%, 4% range next year, but for us, we'll grow in excess of 4% to 6% because Chile has returned to growth, Paraguay is growing at double digits.

明年的成長將在 2%、3%、4% 的範圍內，但對我們來說，成長將超過 4% 到 6%，因為智利已經恢復成長，巴拉圭的成長速度達到兩位數。

Argentina is returning and inflecting the growth.

阿根廷正在復甦並推動經濟成長。

So we've got some, where we had unfavorable comps this year, we'll have favorable comps next year in those economies and Brazil will actually grow at a slower rate than we will, because of our portfolio, but we believe Brazil will grow, but to your point, it's probably a little bit more muted than what you saw this year.

因此，我們今年的比較結果並不理想，但明年這些經濟體的比較結果將會比較理想。

We'll do one more question, Christine.

我們再問一個問題，克里斯汀。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC.

阿倫·維斯瓦納坦（Arun Viswanathan），RBC。

Maybe I could just get first your thoughts around these two beverage can plant acquisitions.

也許我可以先了解您對這兩家飲料罐工廠收購的看法。

Could you provide maybe your thoughts on ROIC or kind of payback period if there's any synergies?

如果存在綜效，您能否提供對 ROIC 或投資回收期的看法？

What can those two kind of add to your kind of outlook over the next say two to three years maybe from a EBITDA standpoint if at all or free cash flow?

從 EBITDA 或自由現金流的角度來看，這兩個因素對未來兩到三年的前景有何影響？

Yeah, I think the -- so we're only acquiring one, the other one would just be a new facility.

是的，我認為——所以我們只收購一個，另一個只是一個新設施。

So we began in growth -- volume growth that we can't serve today in the upper -- in the Northwest, and then we'd be positioning the supply closer to the customer.

因此，我們開始著手成長——目前我們無法在西北地區滿足產量成長，然後我們將供應定位在更靠近客戶的地方。

So probably $20 million additionally a year.

所以每年可能額外增加2000萬美元。

Back half of '26, most likely beginning of '27, and then we'll hit a $25 million to $35 million EBITDA run rate in the beginning of '27 for the Florida can acquisition.

26 年下半年，最有可能是 27 年初，然後我們將在 27 年初實現 2500 萬至 3500 萬美元的 EBITDA 運行率，用於收購佛羅裡達罐頭。

So about a four year to generate positive EVA.

因此大約需要四年才能產生正的 EVA。

And then just back to the beer question.

然後回到啤酒的問題。

So it sounds like there is a -- I mean I can appreciate the large customers of yours could acquire some nice growing properties, but what are they going to -- what is it really going to take for them to accelerate beer because as you said earlier and throughout the call that if you're not growing beer globally, it's going to be difficult and especially in North America.

所以聽起來好像有一個——我的意思是，我可以理解你的大客戶可以獲得一些不錯的增長資產，但他們要做什麼——他們真正需要做什麼來加速啤酒的發展，因為正如你之前和在整個通話過程中所說的那樣，如果你不在全球範圍內發展啤酒，那將會很困難，特別是在北美。

So is it something where they can take a leadership position within the category?

那麼他們是否可以在該領域佔據領導地位？

Was that done in CSD?

這是在 CSD 完成的嗎？

Is it going to require some new beverage development or what do you think and what are you hearing from them as far as ways to really energize that growth profile?

這是否需要開發一些新的飲料，或者您認為如何以及您從他們那裡聽到了什麼關於真正激發這種增長潛力的方法？

Yeah, in beer specifically, so I guess there's beer volume writ large and there's beer in cans.

是的，具體來說是啤酒，所以我想啤酒的容量很大，而且還有罐裝啤酒。

So I still like our ability to move the substrate needle over time.

所以我仍然喜歡我們隨著時間的推移移動基質針的能力。

And the baseline.

以及基線。

And that's -- we've been growing in beer for a decade plus.

這就是說——我們在啤酒領域已經發展了十多年。

So a lot of it has to do with substrate, but then when you look at portfolios, there's certainly been a disaggregation from having too many, too large of a portfolio.

因此，許多問題都與基質有關，但是當您查看投資組合時，肯定會發現由於投資組合過多、過大而導致的分解。

So really moving to a more efficient delivery of brands that they believe are going to win with an affordability lens on that.

因此，他們真正轉向以更有效率的方式交付他們認為能夠以可負擔的價格贏得勝利的品牌。

And so we're helping to make sure that we have a more strategic supply chain.

因此，我們正在幫助確保我們擁有更具策略性的供應鏈。

But in the -- if you look at the largest brewer in the world, I mean their portfolio, they have the largest ready to drink cocktail.

但是——如果你看看世界上最大的啤酒釀造商，我的意思是他們的產品組合，他們擁有最大的即飲雞尾酒。

They have the fastest growing domestic light beer.

他們擁有成長最快的國產淡啤酒。

They -- so there are I think you really have to look within these portfolios, what they're doing, what they're going to do.

他們 — — 所以我認為你真的必須看看這些投資組合，看看他們在做什麼，他們將要做什麼。

And do you believe in that trajectory and how can you help play a role in that?

您相信這個軌跡嗎？

So I think innovation matters.

所以我認為創新很重要。

I think you'll see an investment in a lot more non-alcohol moving forward.

我認為，未來你會看到對非酒精產品的投資大幅增加。

It's not going to be a surprise to see that.

看到這一點並不會讓人感到驚訝。

But when you find a winner, and I think it might be -- I just look at -- I look at these traditional beer players as beverage companies and they've got to get that right because they own the distribution patterns, they own the shelf space to a large extent.

但是當你找到贏家時，我認為它可能是——我只是看看——我把這些傳統的啤酒玩家看作飲料公司，他們必須做對，因為他們擁有分銷模式，他們在很大程度上擁有貨架空間。

And so they got to put things on the shelves that are going to sell, and there's a greater likelihood that it's going to be in a can than any other format.

所以他們必須把要出售的商品放到貨架上，而且採用罐裝形式的可能性比採用其他任何形式都大。

And so that's sort of how we're thinking about it, but the beer question, I think that's the right question, but does it have to be beer?

這就是我們對此的看法，但關於啤酒的問題，我認為這是正確的問題，但它必須是啤酒嗎？

Thanks, Christine.

謝謝，克里斯汀。

We'll leave it there and look forward to talking to you again here at the end of the first quarter.

我們就到此為止，並期待在第一季末再次與您交談。

Hope everybody stays safe and healthy.

希望大家平安健康。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

現在您可以斷開您的線路。

Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.

感謝您的參與並祝您有美好的一天。