Ball Corp (BALL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Ball Corporation third quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

您好，歡迎參加 Ball Corporation 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Brandon Potthoff, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係主管 Brandon Potthoff。

Thank you, sir.

謝謝您，先生。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you, Christine.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

This is Ball Corporation's conference call regarding the company's third quarter 2024 results.

這是 Ball Corporation 關於公司 2024 年第三季業績的電話會議。

The information provided during this call will contain forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議期間提供的資訊將包含前瞻性陳述。

Actual results or outcomes may differ materially from those that may be expressed or implied.

實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

We assume no obligation to update any of the forward-looking statements made today.

我們不承擔更新今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Some factors that could cause the results or outcomes to differ are described in the company's latest Form 10-K, our most recent earnings release, and Form 8-K and in other company SEC filings as well as company news releases.

本公司最新的 10-K 表格（我們最新的收益報告）和 8-K 表格以及其他公司向 SEC 提交的文件以及公司新聞稿中描述了一些可能導致結果或成果出現差異的因素。

If you do not already have our earnings release, it is available on our website at ball.com. Information regarding the use of non-GAAP financial measures may also be found in the Notes section of today's earnings release.

如果您還沒有我們的收益發布，可以在我們的網站 ball.com 上取得。有關使用非公認會計原則財務指標的資訊也可以在今天的收益發布的註釋部分找到。

In addition, the release includes a summary of noncomparable items as well as a reconciliation of comparable net earnings and diluted earnings per share calculations.

此外，新聞稿還包括不可比較項目的摘要以及可比淨利潤和稀釋每股收益計算的調節表。

References to net sales and comparable operating earnings in today's release and call do not include the company's former Aerospace business.

今天的新聞稿和電話會議中提到的淨銷售額和可比營業收入不包括該公司以前的航空航天業務。

Year-to-date net earnings attributable to the corporation and comparable net earnings do include the performance of the company's former Aerospace business through the sale date of February 16, 2024.

年初至今歸屬於公司的淨利潤和可比淨利潤確實包括公司前航空航太業務截至 2024 年 2 月 16 日出售日期的業績。

I would now like to turn the call over to our CEO, Dan Fisher.

我現在想將電話轉給我們的執行長 Dan Fisher。

Thank you, Brandon.

謝謝你，布蘭登。

Today I'm joined on our call by Howard Yu, EVP and CFO.

今天，執行副總裁兼財務長 Howard Yu 加入了我們的電話會議。

I will provide some brief introductory remarks.

我將提供一些簡短的介紹性發言。

Howard will discuss third quarter financial performance and key metrics for 2024.

Howard 將討論第三季的財務表現和 2024 年的關鍵指標。

And then we will finish up with closing comments and Q&A.

然後我們將以結束語和問答結束。

Before I talk about the third quarter, I want to take a moment to recognize our team in Tampa, Florida, who have shown incredible resiliency while dealing with the impact of two devastating hurricanes.

在談論第三季度之前，我想花點時間向我們佛羅裡達州坦帕的團隊表示感謝，他們在應對兩次毀滅性颶風的影響時表現出了令人難以置信的韌性。

Our thoughts are with everyone impacted by these terrible storms.

我們與所有受到這些可怕風暴影響的人同在。

We are fortunate that all of our employees are safe and that our Tampa facility avoided major damage and was back up and running quickly.

我們很幸運，我們所有的員工都很安全，我們的坦帕工廠避免了重大損失，並迅速恢復運作。

The Ball Foundation supported critical relief efforts by providing monetary donations to organizations with teams actively supporting impacted cities.

鮑爾基金會透過向擁有積極支持受影響城市的團隊的組織提供捐款來支持重要的救援工作。

And in conjunction with customers, we donated over 250,000 cans and bottles of drinking water.

我們與客戶一起捐贈了超過 25 萬罐和瓶裝飲用水。

Our thoughts remain with the communities impacted by these terrible storms, and we will continue to support our employees, customers and communities through our global employee giving program.

我們的心與受這些可怕風暴影響的社區同在，我們將繼續透過我們的全球員工捐贈計畫支持我們的員工、客戶和社區。

I would also like to welcome our new colleagues who recently joined Ball following our October 29 acquisition of Alucan Entec, a European extruded aluminum aerosol and bottle technology leader.

我還要歡迎我們的新同事，他們在 10 月 29 日收購了歐洲擠壓鋁氣霧劑和瓶子技術領導者 Alucan Entec 之後最近加入了 Ball。

As the demand for sustainable aluminum packaging continues to grow among customers and consumers, this transaction is a capital-efficient way to add incremental capacity to expand our extruded aluminum aerosol business in Europe, while also allowing us to serve the growing extruded aluminum beverage bottle market and diversify our customer base across the continent.

隨著客戶和消費者對永續鋁包裝的需求持續成長，此交易是一種資本有效的方式，可以增加增量產能，擴大我們在歐洲的擠壓鋁氣霧劑業務，同時也使我們能夠服務於不斷增長的擠壓鋁飲料瓶市場並使我們的客戶群在整個非洲大陸多樣化。

Turning to business performance.

轉向業務績效。

We delivered strong third quarter results and year-to-date have returned approximately $1.4 billion to shareholders via share repurchase and dividends as of today's call.

我們第三季業績強勁，截至今天的電話會議，今年迄今已透過股票回購和股利向股東返還了約 14 億美元。

Reflecting further on year-to-date 2024 performance, aluminum packaging continues to outperform other substrates across the globe.

進一步反映 2024 年迄今的表現，鋁包裝的表現持續優於全球其他基材。

In EMEA, third quarter volumes remained strong, driven by continued investment by our customers in canned filling across the region.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，由於我們的客戶對該地區罐裝填充的持續投資，第三季銷售量保持強勁。

In South America, softer-than-anticipated volume performance was driven by our exposure to Argentina and supply-demand tightness in Brazil.

在南美洲，我們對阿根廷的投資和巴西的供需緊張推動了銷售表現低於預期。

In North America, persistent economic pressure on the end-consumer and our exposure to US domestic beer led to softer-than-expected volumes.

在北美，最終消費者面臨的持續經濟壓力以及我們對美國國內啤酒的曝險導致銷售低於預期。

Our regional performance culminated in Ball's global beverage can shipments being essentially flat year-over-year in the third quarter and up 2% year-to-date.

我們的區域業績達到了頂峰，第三季鮑爾的全球飲料罐出貨量與去年同期基本持平，而今年迄今成長了 2%。

For a complete summary of regional shipments for the third quarter, please refer to today's earnings release.

有關第三季地區出貨量的完整摘要，請參閱今天的財報。

Consistent with our previous commentary and given our customer mix and year-to-date regional volume performance, we now anticipate full year global shipment growth in the low single digits range.

與我們先前的評論一致，並考慮到我們的客戶組合和今年迄今為止的區域銷售表現，我們現在預計全年全球出貨量成長將在較低的個位數範圍內。

Key drivers for our company's performance in 2024 continue to be the benefits of deleveraging, repurchasing shares, improving operational efficiencies, and leveraging our well-capitalized plant assets to grow the use of innovative, sustainable aluminum packaging across channels, categories and venues.

我們公司 2024 年業績的主要驅動力仍然是去槓桿化、回購股票、提高營運效率以及利用我們資本充足的工廠資產在跨通路、類別和場所增加創新、永續鋁包裝的使用。

Based on our current demand trends and the previously mentioned drivers, we are positioned to grow full year comparable diluted EPS mid-single digits plus of 2023 reported comparable diluted EPS of $2.90 per share, generate strong adjusted free cash flow, strengthen our balance sheet, and return a value in excess of $1.6 billion to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends in 2024.

根據我們目前的需求趨勢和前面提到的驅動因素，我們的定位是將全年可比稀釋每股收益增長到中個位數，到2023 年報告的可比稀釋每股收益達到2.90 美元，產生強勁的調整後自由現金流，加強我們的資產負債表，並在 2024 年透過股票回購和股利向股東返還超過 16 億美元的價值。

With that, I'll turn it over to Howard to discuss the quarter and key metrics.

這樣，我將把它交給霍華德討論季度和關鍵指標。

Thank you, Dan.

謝謝你，丹。

Turning to our results.

轉向我們的結果。

Third quarter 2024 comparable diluted earnings per share was $0.91, versus $0.83 in the third quarter of 2023.

2024 年第三季可比攤薄每股收益為 0.91 美元，而 2023 年第三季為 0.83 美元。

Third quarter comparable net earnings of $278 million were up 6% year-over-year, primarily due to strong operational performance and price/mix, leading to improved year-over-year performance in North America, EMEA and South America.

第三季可比淨利潤為 2.78 億美元，較去年同期成長 6%，這主要得益於強勁的營運業績和價格/組合，導致北美、歐洲、中東和非洲和南美洲的業績同比有所改善。

In addition, we had lower interest expense.

此外，我們的利息支出也較低。

In North and Central America, segment comparable operating earnings increased 4% and were in line with our expectations despite a softer US mass beer category and stretched end-consumer.

在北美和中美洲，儘管美國大眾啤酒類別疲軟且終端消費者緊張，但部門可比營業利潤增加了 4%，符合我們的預期。

Benefits of effective cost management and plant efficiencies across our well-capitalized plant network more than offset for the impact of lower volumes.

我們資本充足的工廠網路中有效的成本管理和工廠效率所帶來的好處足以抵消產量下降的影響。

Our team has done a great job improving operational efficiencies, lowering costs, and effectively counter-measuring risk.

我們的團隊在提高營運效率、降低成本和有效應對風險方面做得非常出色。

And in future years, when end-customer demand inflects more favorably, we are set up to more profitably serve our customers' growth.

在未來幾年，當最終客戶的需求發生更有利的變化時，我們將致力於為客戶的成長提供更有利的服務。

In EMEA, overall segment volumes were strong and segment comparable operating earnings increased 24%, matching our expectations entering the quarter.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，整體細分市場銷售強勁，細分市場可比營業利潤成長 24%，符合我們進入本季的預期。

Recent demand trends remain favorable, and the business is on track for significant year-over-year comparable operating earnings growth in 2024 driven by improving operational efficiencies and volume growth.

最近的需求趨勢仍然有利，並且在營運效率提高和銷售成長的推動下，該業務預計在 2024 年實現同比可比營業利潤大幅增長。

In South America, segment comparable operating earnings increased 28%, while segment volumes declined due to continued weakness in Argentina and supply-demand tightness in Brazil late in the quarter.

在南美洲，該部門的可比營業利潤增長了 28%，而由於阿根廷的持續疲軟和本季末巴西的供需緊張，該部門的銷量有所下降。

During the third quarter, consumer conditions in Argentina demonstrates some gradual signs of recovery, and we continue to monitor the dynamic economic situation in Argentina and potential scenarios that can impact results.

第三季度，阿根廷的消費狀況顯示出一些逐漸復甦的跡象，我們將繼續監測阿根廷的動態經濟狀況以及可能影響業績的潛在情景。

In Brazil, strong demand in the month of September outpaced our ability to service that demand.

在巴西，九月的強勁需求超出了我們滿足該需求的能力。

We remain bullish about Brazil and our ability to deliver year-over-year comparable operating earnings and volume improvement as we enter the summer selling season in South America.

隨著南美洲進入夏季銷售季節，我們仍然看好巴西以及我們實現年比營業收入和銷售改善的能力。

Looking at the businesses within Other, the aerosol business performed well and operating earnings were helped by insurance proceeds received during the quarter.

從其他業務來看，氣霧劑業務表現良好，營業收入得益於本季收到的保險收益。

The can plant and beverage packaging other were in line with our expectations, and we continue to see growth opportunities in India.

其他罐頭工廠和飲料包裝符合我們的預期，我們繼續看到印度的成長機會。

Lastly, while our cups business slightly improved operating earnings year-over-year, the growth of this business has not been at the level we initially expected.

最後，雖然我們的杯子業務營業利潤較去年同期略有改善，但該業務的成長並未達到我們最初預期的水平。

And as a result, the company is currently evaluating various options for this business.

因此，該公司目前正在評估該業務的各種選擇。

Moving on to additional key financial metrics and goals for 2024.

接下來討論 2024 年的其他關鍵財務指標和目標。

These reflect very consistent figures to those provided throughout the year.

這些數據與全年提供的數據非常一致。

We continue to anticipate year-end 2024 net debt to comparable EBITDA to be below 2.5x. While we are currently at 2.2x at the end of the third quarter, net debt to comparable EBITDA may not slightly higher by year-end as the company continues payments of tax due on the gain from the sale of Aerospace.

我們繼續預期 2024 年底的淨負債與可比 EBITDA 比率將低於 2.5 倍。雖然我們目前第三季末的利率為 2.2 倍，但到年底，由於公司繼續繳納出售航空航太業務收益的應付稅款，因此到年底，可比 EBITDA 的淨債務可能不會略有上升。

2024 CapEx is on track to be in the range of $650 million, a year-over-year reduction of $400 million, and largely driven by carrying capital related to prior year's projects.

2024 年資本支出預計將在 6.5 億美元左右，年減 4 億美元，這主要是由上一年項目相關的持有資本所推動的。

We remain on track to achieve our adjusted free cash flow target.

我們仍有望實現調整後的自由現金流目標。

Share repurchases are expected to be in excess of $1.4 billion by year-end.

到年底，股票回購預計將超過 14 億美元。

Through today's call, we have repurchased approximately $1.2 billion in shares year-to-date.

透過今天的電話會議，我們今年迄今已回購了約 12 億美元的股票。

Our 2024 full year effective tax on comparable earnings is expected to be slightly above 21%, largely driven by lower year-over-year R&D tax credits associated with the sale of the company's aerospace business.

我們的 2024 年全年可比收益有效稅預計略高於 21%，這主要是由於與公司航空航天業務出售相關的研發稅收抵免同比下降。

Relative to the estimated tax payments due on the aerospace sale, we have paid a total of $484 million as of the end of the third quarter, and we now expect our total taxes on the transaction to be in the range of $950 million.

相對於航空航太銷售的預計應繳稅款，截至第三季末，我們總共支付了 4.84 億美元，目前我們預計該交易的總稅款將在 9.5 億美元左右。

Full year 2024 interest expense is expected to be in the range of $300 million.

2024 年全年利息支出預計在 3 億美元左右。

Excluding the non-comparable aerospace disposition compensation costs, full year 2024 reported adjusted corporate undistributed costs recorded in other nonreportable are expected to be in the range of $100 million.

不包括不可比的航空航太處置補償成本，2024 年全年報告的其他非報告中記錄的調整後的公司未分配成本預計將在 1 億美元範圍內。

And last week, Ball's Board declared its quarterly cash dividend.

上週，鮑爾董事會宣布了季度現金股利。

Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, we remain laser-focused on operational excellence, driving efficiency and productivity across our business, and cost management and monitoring emerging market volatility.

展望 2024 年剩餘時間，我們將繼續專注於卓越營運、提高整個業務的效率和生產力，以及成本管理和監控新興市場波動。

We are committed to maximizing the full potential of our company over the long term.

我們致力於長期最大限度地發揮公司的全部潛力。

We have executed on derisking the corporation through debt retirement.

我們已經透過債務清償來降低公司的風險。

We have no significant near-term maturities.

我們沒有重大的近期到期日。

The runway is clear for us to activate near-term initiatives to consistently deliver high-quality results and generate compounding shareholder returns.

我們有明確的道路可以啟動近期舉措，以持續交付高品質的成果並產生複合的股東回報。

With that, I'll turn it back to Dan.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給丹。

Thanks, Howard.

謝謝，霍華德。

The business is operating well, and we have line of sight to growing our 2024 comparable diluted EPS mid-single digit plus.

該業務運作良好，我們預計 2024 年可比攤薄後每股收益將成長至個位數以上。

While the consumer backdrop remains volatile, we will remain disciplined, and through the strength of our portfolio and the unwavering dedication of our employees, we are confident we will deliver on our commitments laid out at our Investor Day.

儘管消費者環境仍然不穩定，但我們將保持紀律，並透過我們的投資組合實力和員工堅定不移的奉獻精神，我們有信心兌現投資者日所做的承諾。

We are focused on executing our purpose and our promise was certainly on display during the third quarter.

我們專注於執行我們的目標，我們的承諾在第三季度得到了體現。

By the care and support we have provided our employees, customers and communities, by enabling the greater use of aluminum packaging with our bolt-on aluminum aerosol acquisition, and by working together to deliver strong results, operating efficiencies and the consistent return of value to shareholders to ensure we win together over the near and long term.

透過我們為員工、客戶和社區提供的關懷和支持，透過我們的螺栓固定式鋁氣霧劑收購，使鋁包裝得到更多的使用，並透過共同努力，為客戶提供強勁的業績、營運效率和持續的價值回報。

We will strive to deliver innovative aluminum packaging solutions that can lead to a world free from waste and continue down the path to deliver compounding shareholder returns in 2024 and beyond.

我們將努力提供創新的鋁包裝解決方案，打造一個沒有浪費的世界，並繼續在 2024 年及以後為股東帶來複合回報。

Shareholder value creation remains our focus.

為股東創造價值仍然是我們的重點。

And going forward, we anticipate exceeding 10% per annum diluted comparable EPS growth, including in 2025.

展望未來，我們預計稀釋後可比每股收益將每年成長超過 10%，包括 2025 年。

Consistent delivery of high-quality results and operational performance, coupled with significant share repurchases for the foreseeable future, in addition to dividends, will drive shareholder value creation.

除了股利之外，持續交付高品質的業績和營運業績，加上在可預見的未來進行大量股票回購，將推動股東價值創造。

We appreciate the work being done across the organization and extend our well wishes to our employees, customers, suppliers, stakeholders, and everyone listening today.

我們感謝整個組織所做的工作，並向我們的員工、客戶、供應商、利益相關者以及今天聆聽的每個人致以良好的祝愿。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And with that, Christine, we are ready for questions.

克里斯汀，我們準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

George Staphos, Bank of America.

喬治‧斯塔福斯，美國銀行。

I guess the first question I had regards the operational excellence work that you've been doing.

我想我的第一個問題是關於你們一直在做的卓越營運工作。

And what might you have seen year-to-date, what might we see either in absolute terms or sequentially into 4Q and then into 2025?

今年迄今為止您可能會看到什麼，我們可能會在絕對值或第四季以及 2025 年連續看到什麼？

And what I'm really trying to get is, is there any sort of incremental catalysts that we might be able to see from the cost side given that things are pretty much status quo on the top line both in terms of volume and price/mix?

我真正想知道的是，鑑於銷量和價格/組合方面的情況幾乎維持現狀，我們是否可以從成本方面看到任何類型的增量催化劑？

Yes, George.

是的，喬治。

I think you'll see for the next couple of years a continuance of sort of 2% to 3% of our cost structure, is what we're trying to drive to in terms of an overall goal of productivity.

我想你會看到在接下來的幾年裡，我們的成本結構將繼續保持 2% 到 3%，這就是我們在生產力整體目標方面努力實現的目標。

Now there's a chunk of the aluminum that's built in there that's told, which you really don't have a great deal of ownership on how to drive productivity there.

現在，那裡內建了一大塊鋁，您實際上對如何提高那裡的生產力沒有太多的所有權。

But the teams are continuing to fill the funnel with projects and build on that.

但團隊正在繼續用專案填充管道並在此基礎上繼續發展。

I think the simple way to think about it, George, is we are planning better.

喬治，我認為思考這個問題的簡單方法是我們正在更好地計劃。

By planning better, that results in less conversions and less turnover of label changes.

透過更好的規劃，可以減少標籤變更的轉換和周轉。

That creates less spoilage and less overtime.

這樣可以減少損壞並減少加班時間。

And so those fundamental ratios got out of whack during COVID.

因此，在新冠疫情期間，這些基本比率出現了紊亂。

We've taken some of the higher-cost, less-efficient assets out.

我們已經淘汰了一些成本較高、效率較低的資產。

So you're seeing that first wave of productivity gains back half of last year and into this year.

所以你會看到第一波生產力成長從去年下半年開始一直持續到今年。

And then the second half of this year and into next year, the manifestation of really this operational excellence, lean, standardization, continuous improvement.

然後從今年下半年到明年，真正體現了這種卓越營運、精益化、標準化、持續改善。

But they're going to come through those primary factors.

但他們將經歷這些主要因素。

And a little bit of volume will go a long way in also improving that, and improving our leverage flow-through.

一點點的交易量也將大大有助於改善這一點，並改善我們的槓桿流通。

I think you can see we're making more money on a per can basis through a lot of the actions we've taken.

我想你可以看到，透過我們採取的許多行動，我們每罐都賺了更多的錢。

I think we can maintain that, offset inflation, offset merit increases and maybe even margin up a bit more moving forward.

我認為我們可以維持這一點，抵消通貨膨脹，抵消績效成長，甚至可能進一步提高一點。

In North America specific, my comments are really about getting the volume breeds more tailwind and leverage, and it also enables us to step into these efficiency gains where it really shows up in those areas.

具體到北美，我的評論實際上是讓銷量帶來更多的順風和槓桿作用，這也使我們能夠在這些領域中真正體現出效率的提高。

And then further down the road, it enables you to grow absent capital investments at the rate we've seen historically.

然後，進一步發展，它使您能夠以我們歷史上看到的速度成長缺席的資本投資。

So that's how we're looking at it.

這就是我們的看法。

And I think you'll start to see the incremental nature of the standardization and the process improvements now and moving forward.

我認為您將開始看到標準化和流程改進的增量性質以及未來的發展。

But the easier stuff, candidly, not easy in terms of dealing with your people, and closures of plants, but easier in terms of retiring assets that really weren't fit for purpose for the long term.

但坦白說，更容易的事情在與員工打交道和關閉工廠方面並不容易，但在退役確實不適合長期用途的資產方面則更容易。

We're kind of through that wave.

我們已經經歷過那波浪潮了。

Understood.

明白了。

My next, then I'll turn it over.

我的下一個，然後我會把它翻過來。

You mentioned that you will be ready for the summer season in Brazil, yet you had some capacity constraints in September.

您提到您將為巴西的夏季做好準備，但您在 9 月遇到了一些產能限制。

So it sort of begs the obvious question, so how do you manage that?

所以這就引出了一個顯而易見的問題，那麼你要如何處理這個問題呢？

Is there capacity that is mothballed that you can turn back on that will allow you to hit the market in an appropriate way?

是否存在可以重新啟動的封存產能，以便您能夠以適當的方式進入市場？

And then taking a step back, a recurring question topic for Ball is obviously maturity, to put it one way, of mass beer.

然後退後一步，鮑爾反覆出現的一個問題主題顯然是大眾啤酒的成熟度，換句話說，就是大眾啤酒的成熟度。

What can you do with the portfolio as you look out to the next couple of years to either change up your mix or get a higher return if it's required in that mass beer portfolio?

當您展望未來幾年來改變您的產品組合或獲得更高的回報（如果大規模啤酒投資組合需要的話）時，您可以對投資組合做些什麼？

Is it in fact that realized EVA is something you don't emphasize quite as much?

事實上，您是否不太強調實現EVA？

Is that portfolio EVA positive and doing what it needs to do?

該投資組合 EVA 是否積極並且正在做它需要做的事情？

So South America and mass beer.

所以南美和大眾啤酒。

Thank you, George.

謝謝你，喬治。

Start with South America.

從南美洲開始。

So this is just a function of, obviously, in the second and third quarter, in the summer hemisphere, you are curtailing.

顯然，這只是夏半球第二和第三季削減的函數。

So the answer is it got hotter much faster in Brazil.

所以答案是巴西的天氣變熱得更快。

And so we have uncurtailed the lines, and we should have got ahead a little bit of the safety stock build.

因此，我們已經取消了生產線的限制，我們應該提前一點安全庫存的建造。

So you're basically 2 to 3 weeks of not easing into peak season, but hitting it full on.

因此，您基本上有 2 到 3 週的時間不會放鬆進入旺季，而是全力以赴。

And that probably cost us somewhere in the neighborhood of 300 million to 400 million units.

這可能讓我們損失了大約 3 億到 4 億個單位。

So those lines are turned on now.

所以這些線路現在已打開。

We do have capacity that can help serve that market, so it's really more of a Q3 phenomenon.

我們確實有能力幫助服務該市場，所以這實際上更像是第三季的現象。

And so that's been put into place.

這樣就已經落實到位了。

Obviously, you're running incredibly tight right now to make sure that when demand inflects, the one thing that we're preserving obviously is earnings, and we probably managed it a bit too tight in Brazil, but I think we're on our toes moving forward and our partner in that region is doing quite well.

顯然，你現在的運行非常緊張，以確保當需求發生變化時，我們要保留的一件事顯然是收益，我們在巴西的管理可能有點太緊張了，但我認為我們正在努力腳趾向前邁進，我們在該地區的合作夥伴做得很好。

And we'll continue to do that during peak season.

我們將在旺季繼續這樣做。

That's more or less their focus period (technical difficulty) drives you to profit pools, big profit pools, versus others.

這或多或少是他們的焦點期（技術難度）驅使你進入利潤池，大利潤池，而不是其他。

Beer also, keep in mind, it's like if you look at the category, it has declined for 20 years.

還有啤酒，請記住，如果你看一下這個類別，你會發現它已經下降了 20 年。

However, the substrate shift in the cans has more than offset that.

然而，罐中基材的偏移不僅抵消了這一點。

And the innovation in those categories have more than offset that.

這些類別的創新足以抵消這一影響。

So what we need to be aware of and ensure is we're with the right strategic partners in that category.

因此，我們需要注意並確保我們在該類別中擁有合適的策略合作夥伴。

Some folks are winning, and we're with them, but we're also with folks that are not doing well.

有些人取得了勝利，我們與他們站在一起，但我們也與那些表現不佳的人站在一起。

And so we've already started some elements of rebalancing that portfolio.

因此，我們已經開始重新平衡該投資組合的一些要素。

It does become a bit more challenging because the acquisitions over 30 years have assets right across the street from breweries.

這確實變得更具挑戰性，因為超過 30 年的收購資產就在啤酒廠街對面。

So there is some connective tissue there that it's not a quick pivot.

所以那裡有一些結締組織，這不是一個快速的樞軸。

At the same time, we've always done a nice job of creating new white spaces, innovating with the winners.

同時，我們一直在創造新的空白、與贏家一起創新方面做得很好。

We're seeing some of those gains.

我們正在看到其中的一些成果。

But given the weakness of the end consumer, you won't start to see that appreciate at a rate that's more visible, I think, in the top line results until you see a little bit more relief to the end-consumer by virtue of interest rate cuts and things of that nature.

但考慮到最終消費者的疲軟，你不會開始看到這種升值速度在頂線結果中更加明顯，直到你看到最終消費者因利息而得到更多的緩解。

We've been on this particular topic, George, for a handful of years now.

喬治，我們已經討論這個特定的主題好幾年了。

I think we're moving in the right direction.

我認為我們正朝著正確的方向前進。

We're with the folks that are going to win in this category.

我們與那些將在這一類別中獲勝的人站在一起。

And the other blurry line here is don't just focus on historical beer companies.

這裡的另一個模糊界線是不要只專注於歷史悠久的啤酒公司。

Focus on beverage companies, alcohol companies.

重點關注飲料企業、酒類企業。

And one of our biggest partners has the fastest-growing RTD, probably the fastest-growing nonalcohol beer, and the 2 fastest-growing domestic light beers.

我們最大的合作夥伴之一擁有成長最快的即飲啤酒，可能是成長最快的無醇啤酒，以及成長最快的兩種國內淡啤酒。

So there are elements of winning with the right brands, winning with portfolios, winning with folks that are innovative.

因此，有一些要素可以贏得正確的品牌、贏得產品組合、贏得創新人員。

All of those factor into that.

所有這些因素都會影響到這一點。

It's not a quick pivot, but it's one that we're encouraged about the direction of flight we're on.

這不是一個快速的轉變，但它是我們對飛行方向的鼓勵。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

甘沙姆‧潘嘉比 (Ghansham Panjabi)，貝爾德 (Baird)。

I just want to build on your last comments and go back to beverage North America.

我只想以您最後的評論為基礎，回到北美飲料。

Can you just give us a bit more color on how the other categories performed, especially some of the premium categories for that segment in this region?

您能否給我們更多關於其他類別的表現的信息，特別是該地區該細分市場的一些優質類別？

And simplistically, what is the catalyst for volumes as we look out to 2025 for this segment?

簡而言之，我們展望 2025 年該細分市場銷售的催化劑是什麼？

And just as a correlator to that, are you winning your share of new business as it comes up in North America?

作為一個相關因素，當北美出現新業務時，您是否贏得了自己的份額？

And if so, how do you measure that?

如果是這樣，你如何衡量？

Yes.

是的。

So I think first things first, there's probably a macro comment here.

所以我認為首先，這裡可能有一個宏觀評論。

I am quite encouraged actually for 2025 on a couple of fronts, right, that have been the drags for the end-consumer one.

事實上，我對 ​​2025 年的幾個方面感到非常鼓舞，對吧，這一直是終端消費者的拖累。

We finally saw the rate cuts and the manifestation of I think the Fed recognizing that folks need more discretionary spending power.

我們終於看到了降息，以及我認為聯準會認識到人們需要更多可自由支配的消費能力的表現。

I think versus 2019, we've got 8% less discretionary spending power.

我認為與 2019 年相比，我們的可自由支配消費能力下降了 8%。

So I think that's manifesting in the food and beverage categories.

所以我認為這體現在食品和飲料類別。

There's been a lot more inflation.

通貨膨脹嚴重得多。

And so that's really weighing on the end-consumer there.

因此，這確實給最終消費者帶來了壓力。

So the rate cut starts to help.

因此，降息開始有所幫助。

We've also seen an acceleration of savings here over the last 6- to 8 weeks.

在過去的 6 到 8 週內，我們也看到這裡的儲蓄加速成長。

I think the uncertainty of the election, it would be nice just to get through that period.

我認為選舉的不確定性，能撐過那段時期就好了。

So the combination of those two things are certainly going to -- when we're talking to all of our customers, they're very encouraged about 2025 on that stage and on that front.

因此，這兩件事的結合肯定會——當我們與所有客戶交談時，他們對 2025 年在這個舞台和這方面的表現感到非常鼓舞。

So you're going to see in the beer side, in the beer category, in the alcohol category, it is going to be folks that are paying attention to the low end on the price paradigm and on the innovation high end.

因此，你會看到在啤酒方面、啤酒類別、酒精類別中，人們將專注於價格範式的低端和高端創新。

And some of our customers have better portfolios to do that than others.

我們的一些客戶比其他客戶擁有更好的產品組合來做到這一點。

And they will lean into that, and they will win.

他們會傾向於這一點，他們就會獲勝。

And as they get a tailwind of discretionary spending coming back, that category will get better.

隨著可自由支配支出的回升，這個類別將會變得更好。

And so we're bullish on seeing growth next year in that category writ large.

因此，我們樂觀地看到明年該類別的成長明顯。

And I think we're with the right folks that are going to do well in that category.

我認為我們和合適的人在一起，他們會在這個領域做得很好。

And then secondarily, remind me your -- sorry, your second question there, Ghansham.

其次，請提醒我你的——抱歉，你的第二個問題，Ghansham。

Yes.

是的。

I was just -- the premium subsegments that you're exposed to in North American bev, how did they perform?

我只是—您在北美電動車中接觸到的高端細分市場，它們的表現如何？

And then also you're winning -- are you winning your share of new business in the region?

然後你也贏了——你贏得了該地區新業務的份額嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And I think you're hearing this pretty consistently, this year, was you saw some contractual shift from us to a couple of our competitors.

我認為今年您經常聽到這樣的說法，您看到一些合約從我們轉移到了我們的幾個競爭對手。

That was done -- 2022 is when that contract was -- that contract shuffle happened.

那已經完成了——2022 年是合約簽訂的時間——合約洗牌發生了。

Since then, it's been a really rational marketplace relative to that.

從那時起，它就成為了一個相對而言非常理性的市場。

And we should grow in line with the market moving forward.

我們應該隨著市場的發展而成長。

We've won business that has offset some of the contractual headwinds we were facing.

我們贏得的業務抵消了我們面臨的一些合約阻力。

I think the issue is, underlying those wins, is then a backdrop of flattish energy this year, and beer and then domestic beer on a decline.

我認為問題在於，這些勝利背後的背景是今年能源表現平淡，啤酒和國內啤酒都在下降。

So the combination of those 2 have kind of muted the wins that we've had.

因此，這兩者的結合有點削弱了我們所取得的勝利。

But it's not hard to figure out whether you've won contractually or not.

但要弄清楚你是否贏得了合約並不難。

I think the share positioning all year has been a manifestation of mix, category mix, winners and losers within categories, and where you sit within those portfolios and categories.

我認為全年的股票定位體現了組合、類別組合、類別內的贏家和輸家，以及您在這些投資組合和類別中的位置。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then for my second question, maybe for you and Howard as well, just in terms of what is the starting point for base volumes for 2025 that kind of gets you to that 10% plus earnings target that you've outlined or reaffirmed, I should say?

然後，對於我的第二個問題，也許對於您和霍華德來說，就 2025 年基本銷售的起點而言，您可以實現您概述或重申的 10% 以上的收益目標，我應該說？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, we're -- as you know, our process, we are in the throes of it right now.

我的意思是，正如你所知，我們的流程，我們現在正處於陣痛之中。

But initial stages say we're in line with the -- our long-term algorithm of that 2% to 3% range for top line.

但初步階段表明，我們符合我們的長期演算法，即收入在 2% 到 3% 的範圍內。

It will be stronger in Europe and South America.

在歐洲和南美它將更加強大。

We feel like 2025 will be better than the run rate that we're currently experiencing in North America.

我們認為 2025 年將比我們目前在北美的運行率更好。

So we'll have the volume we need and we'll have the backdrop of the efficiency gains we need, and we're still holding the line on $650 million -- or in line with D&A in terms of capital investment, so the share repurchasing.

因此，我們將擁有我們需要的數量，我們將擁有我們需要的效率提升的背景，我們仍然堅持 6.5 億美元的底線——或者在資本投資方面與 D&A 一致，所以份額回購。

And then the second half algorithm of the shares we purchased this year are all going to contribute to -- so really nice tailwinds into '25.

然後，我們今年購買的股票的下半年演算法都將做出貢獻——所以進入 25 年確實是一個很好的順風車。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

傑夫‧澤考斯卡斯，摩根大通。

I think your restructuring charges ex insurance recovery was a little bit more than $90 million.

我認為你們的重組費用（除去保險賠償）略高於 9000 萬美元。

Is that all related to Santa Cruz in Brazil and the Kent, Washington plant?

這一切都與巴西聖克魯斯和華盛頓州肯特工廠有關嗎？

Or were there any other curtailments or closures that are involved in that charge?

或該費用是否涉及任何其他削減或關閉？

Yes, Jeff.

是的，傑夫。

I think some of that -- the vast majority of that, I believe, is related to some of these closures that we've had.

我認為其中一些——我相信其中絕大多數與我們已經關閉的一些產品有關。

We've also had a closure in [Bozo] that is also reflected in some of that number, too.

我們也關閉了 [Bozo]，這也反映在其中一些數字中。

The other component of this, I would say, is around IT and related to -- if you're thinking about it in the context of noncontinuing operations related to the sale of aerospace.

我想說，其中的另一個組成部分是圍繞 IT 的，如果你在與航空航天銷售相關的非持續性運營的背景下考慮它的話。

And so that's a component of that that you would see in there as well.

所以這也是你會在那裡看到的一個組成部分。

Jeff, we also took, through the op model restructure, we did take some actions midyear.

傑夫，我們也透過營運模式重組，在年中採取了一些行動。

So there was severance associated with a number of individuals here as we were rightsizing the business post aerospace acquisition.

因此，當我們在航空航太收購後調整業務規模時，這裡的許多人都收到了遣散費。

And then secondly, when you reflect on your aluminum cup initiative, what do you think are the key reasons that held that initiative back?

其次，當您反思鋁杯倡議時，您認為阻礙該倡議的關鍵原因是什麼？

I think the biggest -- the 2 biggest things, biggest issue is inflation, weakened consumer, a price point that's unsustainable relative to what people are willing to pay for sustainability.

我認為最大的——兩件最大的事情，最大的問題是通貨膨脹、消費者疲軟、相對於人們願意為永續性支付的價格而言，這是不可持續的。

I don't think anybody was anticipating kind of the world we're living in here right now in terms of the inflationary pressures and the reduced discretionary spend of the end-consumer.

我認為沒有人預料到我們現在生活的世界會面臨通膨壓力和最終消費者可自由支配支出的減少。

So that was a challenging environment for sure.

所以那肯定是個充滿挑戰的環境。

And then I think the downstream recycling infrastructure that's required is also far more complicated.

然後我認為所需的下游回收基礎設施也要複雜得多。

And we know it pretty well, but I think in some of the service industry, airports, travel, transportation, we found that it presented some pretty significant barriers to move quickly, at least on that side of the house.

我們對此非常了解，但我認為在一些服務業、機場、旅行、交通領域，我們發現它為快速發展帶來了一些相當大的障礙，至少在房子的那一邊。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC.

阿倫·維斯瓦納坦，加拿大皇家銀行。

I guess first question was I think there was an $85 million closure charge in the quarter.

我想第一個問題是我認為本季有 8500 萬美元的關閉費用。

Is that correct?

這是正確的嗎？

What was that for in North America and South America?

那在北美和南美有什麼用呢？

Yes.

是的。

I think we just answered that question, same to what Jeff was asking, Arun, is the closures associated with the reductions in cans, some of these other ones that we've done here in North America, as well as the ones that we've done in South America as well.

我想我們剛剛回答了這個問題，與傑夫阿倫問的問題一樣，是與減少罐頭相關的關閉，其中一些是我們在北美所做的其他一些，以及我們「我也在南美做過。

And so I think you're asking fundamentally the same question.

所以我認為你基本上是在問同樣的問題。

And restructure, of course.

當然還有重組。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just on the -- it seems like a large amount though, but nevertheless, just wondering about the volume progression, how you see that kind of evolving over the next few quarters.

然後只是——雖然看起來數量很大，但儘管如此，我只是想知道銷量的進展，你如何看待未來幾季的發展。

I know that you had some of the easier comps in the back half of this year.

我知道今年下半年你們有一些比較簡單的比賽。

Those will start dropping off.

那些將開始脫落。

So do you expect kind of -- how do you kind of expect to make that greater than 10% -- or 10% or greater earnings growth?

那麼，您是否期望——您如何期望實現超過 10%——或者 10% 或更高的盈利增長？

I know you've laid out some low single-digit growth targets in the past at your Investor Day and so on.

我知道您過去在投資者日等場合製定了一些較低的個位數成長目標。

But how are you thinking about can growth from here?

但您如何看待從這裡開始的成長？

Yes.

是的。

I think the easier comp would only be in Europe for the fourth quarter.

我認為更容易的比賽只會在第四季在歐洲進行。

Fourth quarter was incredibly strong in South America.

第四季南美洲的表現異常強勁。

There was a little bit -- so a little bit of Argentina too that we'll have to offset there.

阿根廷也有一點點，我們必須在那裡抵消。

North America will be a reflection of end-consumer health in the fourth quarter, how quickly the rate cuts, and I think the election stabilization there, and the people are stopping to save money and spend money, those will all help that.

北美將反映第四季度終端消費者的健康狀況，降息的速度有多快，我認為那裡的選舉穩定，人們正在停止存錢和花錢，這些都會有所幫助。

Into '25, we're feeling confident about all 3 regions.

進入 25 年，我們對所有 3 個地區都充滿信心。

I think we've answered this question as well, but bears repeating. 2% to 3% growth, in line with our Analyst Day expectations, led by what we laid out at Analyst Day as well.

我想我們也已經回答了這個問題，但值得重複。 2% 至 3% 的成長，符合我們分析師日的預期，也是我們在分析師日所製定的預期的結果。

Europe will continue to grow at a healthy rate.

歐洲將繼續以健康的速度成長。

South America will grow at a healthy rate.

南美洲將以健康的速度成長。

North America will be kind of in that lower end of the 1% to 3% range based on what we see today.

根據我們今天看到的情況，北美將處於 1% 至 3% 範圍的較低端。

But there's hope coming and optimism coming in North America where they're finally getting after the rate cuts, and that's what our end consumers need.

但北美地區在降息後終於迎來了希望和樂觀情緒，而這正是我們的最終消費者所需要的。

So that, coupled with consistency of share buyback, returning value.

這樣，再加上股票回購的一致性，就能實現價值報酬。

And then you'll get the compound effect of the lower weighted average shares going into 2025.

然後，您將獲得 2025 年較低加權平均股票的複合效應。

So 2025 will -- should shape up to be a nice year for us.

因此，2025 年對我們來說應該是美好的一年。

Yes.

是的。

I think, Arun, maybe just to piggyback on that, what we did outline during Investor Day is that we're on this journey to reduce costs on a gross basis of $500 million over the next several years.

我想，阿倫，也許只是為了順應這一點，我們在投資者日期間概述的是，我們將在未來幾年內減少總成本 5 億美元。

And so -- and you've heard us talking about the traction that we're getting here in 2024.

所以，你們已經聽到我們談論我們在 2024 年將獲得的牽引力。

And I would expect that we would continue on this journey as we're just starting it really, and so 2025, '26 and '27, all of those.

我希望我們能夠繼續這趟旅程，因為我們才剛開始，所以 2025 年、26 年和 27 年，所有這些。

And so as Dan indicated, we have a very high level of confidence in being able to deliver the 10-plus percent EPS next year.

因此，正如丹所言，我們對明年能夠實現 10% 以上的每股收益充滿信心。

And just real quickly on the footprint.

而且很快就能找到足跡。

I know that you guys have obviously closed some plants, as you noted.

正如你所指出的，我知道您顯然已經關閉了一些工廠。

Is that kind of -- come full circle?

這是一種－回到原點嗎？

We've been hearing that utilization rates for your system may be in the low 90s.

我們聽說您的系統利用率可能在 90 左右。

So would that require more closures, or do you feel pretty good about where you are with the footprint?

那麼這是否需要更多的關閉，或者您對自己的足跡感到滿意嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We feel good about the footprint at this point.

此時我們對足跡感覺良好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

安東尼佩蒂納裡，花旗銀行。

Just maybe piggybacking on that last question.

也許只是順應了最後一個問題。

Given the strength in EMEA, can you talk about what your operating rate in Europe is?

鑑於歐洲、中東和非洲地區的實力，您能談談您在歐洲的開工率嗎？

And then just in terms of the ability to meet I think 3% to 5% growth long term that you outlined at the Analyst Day.

然後就滿足您在分析師日概述的 3% 到 5% 長期增長的能力而言。

How long can you go before maybe some debottlenecking projects or maybe even possibly greenfield?

在一些消除瓶頸的項目甚至可能是綠地之前，你能走多久？

Can you just kind of talk about the system and your ability to meet demand there?

您能簡單談談該系統以及您滿足那裡需求的能力嗎？

Yes.

是的。

In Europe, I don't -- Anthony, we don't see a need for an additional greenfield in Europe, I think Mainland Europe for the next 2- to 3 years, that's sort of our planning period that we're looking at.

在歐洲，我不認為——安東尼，我們認為歐洲不需要額外的綠地，我認為歐洲大陸未來兩到三年，這就是我們正在考慮的規劃期。

We did build, as you know, two new facilities that have ability -- or run rate to add lines.

如您所知，我們確實建造了兩個新設施，它們有能力或運行速度來增加生產線。

And so we'll maximize that.

所以我們將最大化這一點。

We'll also maximize, to your point, where we can speed up lines and add process equipment and debottleneck and all of the things that you're familiar with.

我們還將根據您的觀點，最大限度地加快生產線速度、添加製程設備、消除瓶頸以及您熟悉的所有事情。

The one caveat will be that EMEA region, there are areas that are growing even at a faster rate.

需要注意的是，歐洲、中東和非洲地區有些地區的成長速度甚至更快。

But they're a little bit more volatile markets, so you have a bit more patience there, places like Egypt, places like Turkey, India is in that mix.

但它們是波動性較大的市場，所以你要有更多的耐心，像埃及、土耳其、印度這樣的地方都在其中。

So I would caveat or pull those regions out of my initial comments.

因此，我會警告或將這些區域從我最初的評論中刪除。

But all of what we're talking about here is in the envelope of our spending capital at D&A.

但我們在這裡討論的所有內容都在 D&A 的支出資本範圍內。

We can do all of what we need to, to help grow specifically Europe and South America at those outsized growth rates.

我們可以做我們需要做的一切，幫助歐洲和南美洲實現如此驚人的成長率。

I think we spent the capital we needed to in North America.

我認為我們在北美花費了我們需要的資金。

So we're -- the team is laser-focused on ensuring that we're returning value to shareholders and enabling the investments in the areas that are going to give us the greatest payback.

因此，我們的團隊專注於確保為股東帶來價值，並在能夠為我們帶來最大回報的領域進行投資。

Maybe one more thing to add there, Anthony, I would say is, on the substrate shift, Europe is still relatively early in that journey.

安東尼，我想說的是，在基質轉變方面，歐洲還處於這趟旅程的相對早期。

And so we're seeing a good lift, and we will continue to see that.

因此，我們看到了良好的提升，並且我們將繼續看到這一點。

I think the substrate shift is something less than 32% as we speak today.

我認為，正如我們今天所說，底物偏移不到 32%。

And so there's plenty of runway there as well.

因此那裡也有充足的跑道。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then just a quick question on kind of the consumer weakness that you've seen in North America.

然後簡單問一下您在北美看到的消費者弱點。

You've talked about kind of standard sizes versus specialty sizes versus super specialty, I think at the Analyst Day, cups were kind of included in that super specialty category.

您談到了標準尺寸與專業尺寸與超級專業尺寸，我認為在分析師日，杯子有點包含在超級專業類別中。

And obviously, it's been a bit weaker.

顯然，它已經弱了一些。

I'm just wondering, when you look at kind of the broader portfolio, are you seeing kind of a mix down in North America between specialty cans and 12-ounce where you're more likely to sell a 6-pack of a 12-ounce standard can and some of those higher ASP products in specialty sizes are not growing as fast or maybe you're kind of losing some mix there?

我只是想知道，當您查看更廣泛的產品組合時，您是否會看到北美特殊罐裝和 12 盎司之間的混合，您更有可能出售 6 罐裝或 12 盎司裝盎司標準罐頭和一些特殊尺寸的較高ASP 產品的成長速度沒有那麼快，或者您可能在那裡失去了一些組合？

And is that impacting the overall profitability of the business, or is that cutting it maybe a little bit too finely?

這是否會影響企業的整體獲利能力，或是削減得過於精細？

I think, Anthony, it's cutting it a bit too finely.

我認為，安東尼，這有點太精細了。

But you are on to something here, and I'll just draw this out a bit.

但你已經明白了一些事情，我就簡單地把它畫出來。

So if you look at energy specifically, right?

那麼，如果你專門關注能源，對嗎？

And you look at the end consumer for energy categories and where they consume those products, they shop at a C-store channel.

你看看能源類別的最終消費者，他們消費這些產品的地方就是在便利商店通路購物。

And many of these individuals are in construction or they're in the service industry.

其中許多人從事建築業或服務業。

And overwhelmingly, the majority of these consumers are Hispanic.

絕大多數消費者都是西班牙裔。

The Hispanic unemployment rate is nearly 6%.

西班牙裔失業率接近6%。

And so when we talk to our energy customers, they're telling us that the interest rates and that particular category in that channel have been impacted.

因此，當我們與能源客戶交談時，他們告訴我們利率和該管道中的特定類別已受到影響。

Those are overwhelmingly specialty cans in that category, but they're not -- they're the less special variety.

這些罐頭絕大多數是該類別中的特殊罐，但它們不是——它們是不太特殊的品種。

So it's 16 ounce, right?

所以是 16 盎司，對嗎？

And so we -- that's what's happening within the energy category right now.

所以我們——這就是目前能源類別中正在發生的事情。

So that starts to relieve itself, interest rate cuts and a couple of other things.

因此，降息和其他一些事情開始緩解這一情況。

So that's why I'm more bullish about moving into 2025 with some tailwinds in and around that.

因此，我對進入 2025 年及其周圍的一些順風車更加樂觀。

But you do have to slice it down to a pretty discrete level to kind of parcel out can size, channel, customer, regional aspects to it.

但你確實必須將其分割成一個相當離散的級別，以對其規模、管道、客戶、區域等方面進行劃分。

Specialty is still special and it's still tight.

專業還是特殊，還是很緊。

It's just like the general malaise, I think, of the end-consumer is what we're experiencing right now across all categories and all can sizes.

我認為，這就像我們現在在所有類別和所有罐裝尺寸中所經歷的最終消費者的普遍不適一樣。

Stefan Diaz, Morgan Stanley.

斯特凡·迪亞茲，摩根士丹利。

Maybe to start and piggybacking off George's question around South America.

也許可以從喬治在南美洲提出的問題開始。

Can you tell us what the volume number was in Brazil and maybe what you think the market grew in the quarter?

您能告訴我們巴西的銷量是多少，以及您認為本季市場的成長嗎？

I understand it's a seasonably slow period there.

我知道現在是季節性淡季。

And maybe additionally, if you could speak to the profitability upside versus Street expectations, despite the volume headwinds you faced in the quarter.

此外，也許您可以談談與華爾街預期相比的獲利能力上升，儘管您在本季度面臨銷售逆風。

Is that more operational excellence?

這是不是更卓越的營運？

Or was there potentially some more end shipments in the quarter?

或者本季最終出貨量是否可能增加？

If you could just dig into that a little bit, that would be helpful.

如果您能稍微深入研究一下，那將會很有幫助。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Nearly double-digit growth in South America, and Brazil, specifically, sorry.

南美洲，尤其是巴西，成長接近兩位數，抱歉。

And we were flat to slightly down, and I think we left about 3% to 4% of growth on the table by not matching our production with demand.

我們的業績持平甚至略有下降，我認為由於產量與需求不匹配，我們留下了大約 3% 到 4% 的成長。

Our primary strategic partner did not win in the quarter.

我們的主要戰略合作夥伴在本季沒有獲勝。

But we expect them to do well in the fourth quarter and the first quarter, which is, of course, their peak season, which you referenced.

但我們預計他們在第四季和第一季會表現出色，這當然是你提到的他們的旺季。

And then I would say it wasn't actually end mix.

然後我想說這實際上並不是最終混音。

Typically, as you know, we make those ends in a very favorable tax jurisdiction.

如您所知，通常我們會在非常優惠的稅務管轄區實現這些目標。

So that mix can increase or decrement profitability as a result of that mix, but we're shipping less ends actually.

因此，這種組合可以增加或減少獲利能力，但實際上我們的出貨量較少。

This is all improved performance, and really appreciate the team with regards to that down in South America.

這都是性能的提高，並且非常感謝團隊在南美洲的表現。

So hopefully, continued margin benefits through our focus on operations with a little bit of a tailwind there in South America bodes well for us.

因此，希望透過我們專注於南美業務的持續利潤成長，並在南美洲帶來一點順風，這對我們來說是個好兆頭。

I think we'll certainly make more money in Q4, and then it's, for us, it's the culmination really of the countries outside of Brazil that will dictate whether we're growing or we're not.

我認為我們肯定會在第四季度賺更多的錢，然後對我們來說，巴西以外的國家真正的頂峰將決定我們是否成長。

We'll certainly grow for the year and grow in line with expectations that we've laid out.

我們今年肯定會實現成長，並按照我們設定的預期成長。

But whether we grow mid-single digits or closer to low single digits, I think it will be all indicative of what happens in Paraguay, Uruguay, Peru, Chile and Argentina, and that recovery there.

但無論我們的成長是中個位數還是接近低個位數，我認為這都將表明巴拉圭、烏拉圭、秘魯、智利和阿根廷所發生的情況以及那裡的復甦。

Great.

偉大的。

And then I'm glad to hear that everybody is okay in the Tampa region following the storm there.

然後我很高興聽到風暴過後坦帕地區的所有人都安然無恙。

That said, with the 2 storms in the Southeast, do you believe that they had any impact on North American volume in the quarter?

也就是說，東南部的兩場風暴，您認為它們對本季北美的銷售有影響嗎？

No, I don't.

不，我不。

I think we lost almost 2 full days, 3 days of production.

我認為我們損失了幾乎整整 2 天、3 天的生產時間。

But that, like you said, in a shoulder period, this would have contributed to some missed volume and probably a bridge items worth of -- had it been June, July, August time period.

但是，正如您所說，在肩膀時期，如果是在六月、七月、八月時期，這將導致一些錯過的交易量，並且可能是一個過渡項目的價值。

But we were able to -- we were able to source those customers largely from our other regional assets there.

但我們能夠——我們能夠主要從我們在那裡的其他區域資產中獲取這些客戶。

And thanks for the well wishes.

並感謝您的良好祝愿。

Mike Leithead, Barclays.

麥克萊特黑德，巴克萊銀行。

First question on South America.

第一個問題關於南美洲。

Can you help us better understand the impact of Argentina on segment volumes?

您能否幫助我們更了解阿根廷對細分市場銷售的影響？

If I heard you correctly, Brazil was flattish.

如果我沒聽錯的話，巴西是平的。

So is Argentina down something like double the segment average?

那麼，阿根廷的跌幅是否是該行業平均的兩倍？

And then relatedly, how are you assessing your presence or footprint in Argentina just given all the uncertainty and volatility there?

與此相關的是，考慮到阿根廷的所有不確定性和波動性，您如何評估您在阿根廷的存在或足跡？

Yes.

是的。

For the full year, what we're anticipating right now is this would include the fourth quarter somewhere between 500 million to 600 million units of decrement year-over-year due to Argentina volumes when you compare it to 2023.

對於全年而言，我們現在預計第四季的產量將年減 5 億至 6 億單位，因為與 2023 年相比，阿根廷的產量有所下降。

And the third quarter was approximately 270 million that Argentina was down, in the third quarter versus the prior year.

第三季度，阿根廷的人口數量比去年同期下降了約 2.7 億。

So as it relates to Argentina, I'll give you, Argentina is really good when it's good, it's not so good when it's not.

因此，就阿根廷而言，我可以告訴你，阿根廷好的時候真的很好，壞的時候就不太好。

Having said that, we've been there the last 30 years ago, we stayed in that market, and it's grown significantly and the can does really well there.

話雖如此，我們在過去 30 年前就已經進入了這個市場，我們一直留在這個市場，而且它的成長顯著，而且罐頭在那裡做得非常好。

And our 2 most important strategic partners in South America are there.

我們在南美的兩個最重要的策略夥伴就在那裡。

They're going to continue to be there and they want us to be there to support them.

他們將繼續在那裡，他們希望我們在那裡支持他們。

Having said all that, we're eyes wide open.

說了這麼多，我們都睜大了眼睛。

I think Howard and I went down in April, met with the central bank, met with the Vice President, met with the Secretary of Commerce.

我想霍華德和我在四月去了，會見了央行，會見了副總統，會見了商務部長。

Everything they laid out at that time, they're executing against.

他們當時制定的一切，他們都在執行。

So we're seeing currency controls, easing.

所以我們看到貨幣管制正在放鬆。

We're seeing inflation and at sort of the lowest levels.

我們看到通貨膨脹處於最低水平。

Howard, I'd ask you to...

霍華德，我想請你...

Yes, I think that's right.

是的，我認為這是對的。

I think, if anything, it's incrementally a little bit better.

我認為，如果有的話，那就是逐漸好一點。

And so that gives us, I think, some optimism overall as it relates to their policies taking hold and even being able to repatriate funds and things of that nature.

因此，我認為，這總體上給我們帶來了一些樂觀情緒，因為這關係到他們的政策的落實，甚至能夠匯回資金和類似性質的東西。

I think that the banking system is improving a little bit there as well in the increment.

我認為銀行體系在增量方面也有所改善。

And so I think that we expect 2025 to continue on that progress path.

因此，我認為我們預計 2025 年將繼續沿著這條進步道路前進。

And as Dan said, this is -- Argentina has historically been a very profitable area.

正如丹所說，阿根廷歷史上一直是一個非常有利可圖的地區。

That all said, we do recognize that the volumes down in Argentina in the third quarter were in excess of 30%.

儘管如此，我們確實認識到阿根廷第三季的銷量下降了 30% 以上。

That being said, we don't see as much of a profit impact this year as we did last year when these policies and the initial shock associated with that, those turns had happened.

話雖這麼說，我們今年的利潤影響並不像去年那麼大，當時這些政策以及與之相關的最初衝擊已經發生了。

So overall, I think we're going to be watchful and mindful and doing a lot of scenario planning, which is what we do.

總的來說，我認為我們將保持警惕和留心，並做大量的情境規劃，這就是我們所做的。

But we feel as though the long-term prospects still remain quite favorable for us in Argentina.

但我們認為，阿根廷的長期前景仍然對我們相當有利。

Great.

偉大的。

That's super helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then secondly, can you talk a bit more about what the Alucan acquisition brings to your existing extruded aluminum business?

其次，您能多談談收購 Alucan 會為您現有的擠壓鋁材業務帶來什麼嗎？

And are there other aerosol or adjacent opportunities in the M&A pipeline still out there for you guys?

你們在併購管道中是否還有其他氣溶膠或鄰近的機會？

Yes.

是的。

Well, I think first things first, it's one of the facilities was actually part of our original investment in this space.

嗯，我認為首先，它的其中一個設施實際上是我們在這個空間的原始投資的一部分。

And so we've actually run the plant in Spain, some of our employees have.

因此，我們實際上在西班牙經營這家工廠，我們的一些員工也是如此。

So we know it well, and we know the customer base very, very well.

所以我們非常了解這一點，並且非常非常了解客戶群。

They also built a new facility in Belgium.

他們還在比利時建立了一個新工廠。

So we're stepping into a footprint that will enable us to grow incrementally without having to build a greenfield facility.

因此，我們正在踏入的足跡將使我們能夠逐步成長，而無需建造新建設施。

And that is a business that has been growing mid-single digits, high single digits.

這是一項一直在中個位數、高個位數成長的業務。

Very encouraging.

非常鼓舞人心。

And so we were faced with a number of capital allocation decisions, and this was just uniquely presented.

因此，我們面臨許多資本配置決策，而這是獨一無二的。

The individual who was the owner is retiring.

業主即將退休。

And so you know this, anything in M&A, it all looks good on paper, but you have to have a buyer and a seller on this.

所以你知道這一點，併購中的任何事情，在紙上看起來都很好，但你必須有買家和賣家。

We were the right owner for it.

我們是它的合適所有者。

And yes, we're excited to welcome these folks on board.

是的，我們很高興歡迎這些人加入。

So that came nicely, and there are other opportunities within the space.

所以這一切都很順利，而且在這個領域還有其他機會。

It's pretty fragmented.

它非常分散。

And so we -- where there's an opportunity and there's a buyer and seller, I mean this is -- these are really nice bolt-ons for us and fits well within our capital allocation structure, and we continue to return value to our shareholders.

因此，只要有機會，就有買家和賣家，我的意思是，這些對我們來說確實是很好的補充，並且非常適合我們的資本配置結構，我們將繼續為股東回報價值。

So all the stars lined on this one, and so hopefully, there are more of those out there.

所以所有的明星都集中在這一個上，所以希望還有更多這樣的明星。

Josh Spector, UBS.

喬許‧斯佩克特，瑞銀集團。

I apologize if I missed this, but I wanted to ask specifically on the 4Q EPS expectations.

如果我錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但我想具體詢問第四季度每股收益預期。

So last call, you talked about fourth quarter being up maybe about a 10% kind of normal growth.

上次電話會議中，您談到第四季的成長可能是 10% 左右，屬於正常成長。

You reiterated your mid-single-digit growth for the year.

您重申了今年的中個位數成長。

So that's, at the low end, that could mean that EPS is flat or maybe even slightly down.

因此，在低端，這可能意味著每股收益持平，甚至可能略有下降。

So can you just clarify what your expectation is for the quarter?

您能否澄清一下您對本季的預期？

Yes, Josh, what I would say is that we did have a little bit of improvement in Q3.

是的，喬什，我想說的是，我們在第三季確實取得了一些進步。

We had our insurance proceeds.

我們有保險收益。

I think we outlined that in our prepared comments as well that came in associated with the Verona fire.

我想我們在準備好的評論中也概述了與維羅納火災相關的內容。

And so that was probably a couple penny that was pulled into Q3 based purely on timing.

因此，這可能是純粹根據時間安排進入第三季度的幾分錢。

So that comes out of Q4.

這是第四季的結果。

That said, I think that the expectation is that Q4 will continue to increment upwards as it relates to EPS.

也就是說，我認為第四季度的預期將繼續向上成長，因為它與每股盈餘相關。

And as we said, that would probably be a mid-single digit, mid-single-digit plus range as well to get us for the full year in that range.

正如我們所說，這可能會是一個中個位數、中個位數+範圍，讓我們全年都在這個範圍內。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And I wanted to go back to one of the earlier questions, just on the cost savings and efficiency.

我想回到之前的問題之一，即關於成本節約和效率。

Just you talked about scenario planning.

剛才您談到了情境規劃。

I guess if we're scenario-planning for next year and saying maybe there's a scenario where volumes are more flattish versus up low single, what kind of cost efficiencies or earnings could you see in that scenario from what's in your control and what you're doing today?

我想，如果我們對明年進行情境規劃，並說可能存在一種情況，即銷量與單次成長相比更加持平，那麼在這種情況下，從您的控制範圍和您的能力來看，您可以看到什麼樣的成本效率或效益今天在做什麼？

What I would say, Josh, is that we're focused in on controlling what we can and making sure that this operational efficiency standardization journey that we're on continues to move forward and we get that -- we continue to gain traction.

喬什，我想說的是，我們專注於控制我們能做到的事情，並確保我們正在進行的營運效率標準化之旅繼續向前發展，我們明白了——我們繼續獲得牽引力。

That all said, as Dan outlined, we're in the throes of our annual process as we look at 2025.

儘管如此，正如 Dan 所概述的那樣，展望 2025 年，我們正處於年度流程的陣痛之中。

And so we'll have some more prepared comments for you with our Q4 earnings.

因此，我們將為您提供一些有關我們第四季度收益的更準備好的評論。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

艾德蘭·羅德里格斯，瑞穗。

I mean just a quick observation on Argentina.

我的意思是對阿根廷進行快速觀察。

Are people really drinking less because of the stuff economic conditions?

人們真的因為經濟條件而減少飲酒嗎？

Because you would think they would want to forget the problems.

因為你會認為他們想要忘記這些問題。

And so I guess, like everyone is like my friend down there.

所以我想，就像下面的每個人都像我的朋友一樣。

So a little surprise in there to see volume down so much because of the economic conditions.

因此，由於經濟狀況而導致銷量大幅下降，這有點令人驚訝。

So if you go into Europe then, again, we've been seeing like a nice recovery there.

因此，如果你再次進入歐洲，我們會看到那裡的復甦勢頭良好。

Like would you attribute that to improving end consumer demand?

您是否會將其歸因於終端消費者需求的改善？

Or is that just like restocking, easier comps?

或者這就像補貨一樣，更容易獲得補償？

Like what's really driving that strength on there?

到底是什麼推動了這種力量？

Yes.

是的。

Good.

好的。

So I think if you get outside of Buenos Aires, yes, dramatically less spending power in Argentina, people are drinking a lot less.

所以我認為，如果你離開布宜諾斯艾利斯，是的，阿根廷的消費能力大幅下降，人們的飲酒量也大大減少。

We were just down there last week, by the way.

順便說一句，我們上週才去過那裡。

So significantly different consumption profile than a year ago.

消費狀況與一年前有很大不同。

And then secondarily, in EMEA, there has been two things that have happened this year that have been better than we anticipated coming into the year.

其次，在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，今年發生的兩件事比我們今年的預期還要好。

One, the pricing of our customers have been a bit more aggressive.

第一，我們客戶的定價有點激進。

Now at the same point in Europe, there's a bit more control by the retailers on what you can pass through in terms of price.

現在在歐洲的同一點，零售商對你可以通過的價格有更多的控制。

So there's been conscious effort by a number of our customers to go get share.

因此，我們的許多客戶有意識地努力爭取份額。

Number two, there has been relief on energy.

第二，能源方面有所緩解。

So relatively speaking, folks in Europe don't have as much discretionary spend power as they did in '19, before the energy spikes, however, they've got relatively more in their pocket, right, than they did suddenly at this time a year ago.

因此，相對而言，歐洲人的可自由支配消費能力不如 19 年能源高峰之前那麼大，但是，他們的口袋裡的錢相對比現在突然多了，對吧？

So those 2 things contributed.

所以這兩件事有貢​​獻。

The destocking, restocking event that you're characterizing, that will be a Q4 impact.

您所描述的去庫存、補庫存事件將對第四季產生影響。

Not as much of a Q3.

沒有Q3那麼多。

So what you've seen through the first 9 months are real.

所以你在前 9 個月所看到的都是真實的。

Maybe a bit of improvement in Q1.

也許第一季有所改善。

That was ahead of true demand because I think they've lowered the inventory levels too much in Q4 of last year.

這超出了真正的需求，因為我認為他們在去年第四季將庫存水準降低太多。

So you would have seen that come through in Q1 more than you would have seen it at this point.

因此，您在第一季看到的情況會比此時看到的要多。

And then it should be a relatively easier comp in Q4 because of this phenomenon that you characterized.

由於你描述的這種現象，第四季的比賽應該相對容易一些。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

菲爾·吳，杰弗里斯。

Dan, Howard, this is John.

丹，霍華德，這是約翰。

Trying to get on for Phil.

試圖接近菲爾。

Appreciate all the detail, guys.

夥計們，欣賞所有的細節。

I just wanted to first touch on the cups business.

我只是想先接觸一下杯子業務。

I mean you said you're looking at strategic alternatives.

我的意思是你說你正在尋找戰略替代方案。

I mean is there anything else that you're really looking to explore outside a potential sale?

我的意思是，除了潛在的銷售之外，您真的想探索其他什麼嗎？

Is there more investment or acquisitions to bolster up the business or anything along those lines?

是否有更多的投資或收購來支持業務或類似的事情？

Yes.

是的。

John, well, let me say first that no formal or firm decision has been made.

約翰，好吧，我首先要說的是，尚未做出正式或確定的決定。

But as we think about that business, it's just we're losing probably in the magnitude of $40 million this year, and that can't continue.

但當我們考慮這項業務時，我們今年可能損失了 4000 萬美元，而且這種情況不能再繼續下去了。

And so we'll look at various different options, whether that means rightsizing that business going forward.

因此，我們將考慮各種不同的選擇，這是否意味著未來要調整業務規模。

Again, as you outlined, maybe some sort of joint venture or third-party interaction there that can maybe focus more on that business.

同樣，正如您所概述的，也許某種合資企業或第三方互動可以更多地關注該業務。

And then obviously, thinking through whether or not we wind that down.

然後顯然，我們要考慮是否要結束這個過程。

So all of those things are in play.

所以所有這些事情都在發揮作用。

But certainly something that we need to address here in the short term.

但短期內我們確實需要解決一些問題。

I would not think in terms of additional capital, either via acquisition or putting it into the business.

我不會考慮額外的資本，無論是透過收購還是將其投入業務。

Got it.

知道了。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

And then on South America, I know we've talked about it a lot.

然後關於南美，我知道我們已經討論了很多。

I mean you guys said you started up just maybe a couple weeks, few weeks behind a normal schedule, and kind of weather came in.

我的意思是你們說你們可能只啟動了幾週，比正常計劃晚了幾週，然後天氣就來了。

Is that something that you guys can catch up on?

這是你們能趕上的事嗎？

I mean I know you're running full out now, and it seems like the summer is good, but 3% to 4% maybe loss in 3Q, is that able to be recaptured in the summer selling season in 4Q, 1Q type?

我的意思是我知道你現在已經滿員了，而且夏天似乎不錯，但第三季度可能會損失3%到4%，這是否能夠在第四季度、第一季類型的夏季銷售季節重新奪回？

And then as you're thinking about the region going into maybe next year and beyond, already running full out, is that a region that you see needing more capacity as your primary customer growth?

然後，當您考慮該地區可能會進入明年及以後，並且已經完全耗盡時，您是否認為該地區需要更多容量作為主要客戶的成長？

Is it something where you can maybe pull some of the assets that you had in Argentina to help supply the Brazilian market?

您是否可以利用在阿根廷擁有的一些資產來幫助供應巴西市場？

Maybe just for your thoughts on there.

也許只是為了你的想法。

No, I think you're thinking about it the right way.

不，我認為你的思考方式是正確的。

Simply put, in all of our businesses during the winter period or this low period, you're always curtailing, you're always doing maintenance work.

簡而言之，在我們所有的業務中，在冬季或低谷時期，你總是在削減開支，你總是在進行維護工作。

I think -- you were still, let's be honest, we were still kind of chasing the bottom of volumes in South America.

我認為 - 老實說，我們仍然在追尋南美銷量的底部。

It feels like we're inflecting positively now.

感覺我們現在正在積極地改變。

And so it's a reframing of stocking levels, when you do your maintenance, pulling it up further, earlier.

因此，當你進行維護時，這是對庫存水準的重新調整，更早、更進一步地提高庫存水準。

So you can manage this, I think, more effectively.

所以我認為你可以更有效地管理這個問題。

There's more capacity to run as opposed to curtail.

與削減相比，有更多的運行能力。

We were laser-focused on driving the bottom line.

我們全神貫注於提高利潤。

And when you see a surge that's weather related to this magnitude, no, you've missed it in the third quarter, we're running, to your point, we're running our assets in Chile and Argentina and other places where we might have a bit more excess capacity to catch up.

當你看到與這種程度的天氣相關的激增時，不，你在第三季度錯過了它，我們正在運行，就你的觀點而言，我們正在智利和阿根廷以及其他我們可能會運行的地方運作我們的資產有更多的產能過剩來追趕。

So I think we'll be better prepared for it next year in a more stable top line environment, which is really encouraging.

因此，我認為明年我們將在更穩定的營收環境中做好更好的準備，這確實令人鼓舞。

But you kind of missed that shoulder season onetime benefit there.

但你有點錯過了那個肩季的一次性福利。

Mike Roxland, Truist.

麥克‧羅克克蘭，真理主義者。

Just two quick ones for me.

對我來說只有兩個快速的。

Just can you -- Dan, can you go through the cadence of shipments in North America during the quarter?

Dan，您能了解本季北美的出貨節奏嗎？

And where do October shipments stand in North America at present?

目前北美 10 月出貨情況如何？

Yes.

是的。

It was -- I would say August was okay and then things started to really slow -- September time frame.

這是——我想說八月還不錯，然後事情開始變得非常緩慢——九月的時間框架。

And as we're heading into -- right now, I think it's a continuance of that.

當我們現在進入這個階段時，我認為這是這種情況的延續。

You could see that reflected in the scanner data.

您可以在掃描器資料中看到這一點。

But two things will have to happen.

但有兩件事必鬚髮生。

It's usually a 60-, 90-day impact for those interest rate cuts to flow through, number one.

第一，降息​​通常會產生 60 或 90 天的影響。

And number two, I think you've seen this as well, people are saving at a pretty high rate right now.

第二，我想你也看到了這一點，人們現在的儲蓄率相當高。

And I think we got to get through next week, and hopefully, there's some stabilization there.

我認為我們必須度過下週，希望情況能有所穩定。

And those two things should help to inflect.

這兩件事應該有助於改變。

Like I said, our customers are pretty darn encouraged about 2025, a little bit more stabilization, inflation stabilizing, interest rate cuts.

就像我說的，我們的客戶對 2025 年感到非常鼓舞，穩定一點，通膨穩定，利率下調。

But I think we're still in a level of uncertainty here as I sit here and talk to you today about Q4.

但我認為，當我今天坐在這裡與大家談論第四季度時，我們仍然處於一定程度的不確定性。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just one quick follow-up on the strategic customer realignment mentioned earlier.

然後是對前面提到的策略客戶調整的快速跟進。

Obviously, a lot of things to consider, particularly given where your plants are situated.

顯然，有很多事情需要考慮，特別是考慮到您的工廠所在的位置。

But also to me, and correct me if I'm wrong, it sounds like you're still focused on beer.

但對我來說，如果我錯了，請糾正我，聽起來你仍然專注於啤酒。

Is there any way to really diversify more into other end-markets?

有沒有辦法可以真正多元化，進入其他終端市場？

Or is the strategy really just trying to realign with brands that are winning in beer?

或者該策略實際上只是試圖與在啤酒領域獲勝的品牌重新調整？

Well, we're with the brands that are winning in beer, overwhelmingly, right?

好吧，我們與那些在啤酒領域獲勝的品牌站在一起，壓倒性地，對吧？

There's been -- I mean we're with all the brewers, and the company that's winning the most, we've got a dramatically significant share of that position.

我的意思是，我們與所有啤酒製造商以及獲勝最多的公司一起，我們在這一位置上佔據了相當大的份額。

And then I think within -- we don't look at it, I would say, Michael, as beer anymore.

然後我想，邁克爾，我們不再把它視為啤酒了。

We look at it as alcohol.

我們將其視為酒精。

So the folks that have the best portfolio, best alcohol portfolios, we're with them.

因此，那些擁有最好的產品組合、最好的酒精產品組合的人，我們和他們在一起。

Can you reposition?

可以重新定位嗎？

Of course.

當然。

I would just reiterate this.

我只想重申這一點。

Historically, the margin in the beer space have been far better than any of the other.

從歷史上看，啤酒業的利潤率遠高於其他行業。

So you might get the growth, but the diversification historically would have come at a cost.

因此，你可能會獲得成長，但從歷史上看，多元化是有代價的。

And so the other thing about beer, just to remind everyone, it's like we weren't declining because we were taking substrate.

關於啤酒的另一件事，只是為了提醒大家，我們並沒有因為使用底物而拒絕啤酒。

So if you still believe that a substrate shift is there and it's going to happen, then it's not a bad place to be.

因此，如果您仍然相信底物轉移確實存在並且將會發生，那麼這並不是一個壞地方。

But making those calculations and prognosticating, it's different now because beer now has a 70% share of aluminum -- or aluminum has a 70% share of beer.

但透過這些計算和預測，現在情況有所不同，因為現在啤酒中含有 70% 的鋁，或啤酒中含有 70% 的鋁。

But there's still opportunities.

但仍有機會。

There was another glass closure just announced this week.

本週剛剛宣布了另一次玻璃關閉。

So I think you've got to be really thoughtful about the mix.

所以我認為你必須認真考慮混合。

Generally speaking, we are very thoughtful about the mix and who's winning and we generally have those, the more innovative folks, the acquirers.

一般來說，我們對這種組合以及誰會獲勝非常深思熟慮，我們通常有那些更具創新精神的人，也就是收購者。

I think the demise of beer is a little bit overdone given the backdrop of that substrate shift.

我認為，考慮到基質轉變的背景，啤酒的消亡有點過頭了。

So beer in general, yes, has been declining for 20 years, but hasn't within our portfolio.

是的，啤酒總體來說已經下降了 20 年，但並未出現在我們的產品組合中。

And I think the end-consumer softness has a lot more to do with this than the beer decline.

我認為終端消費者的疲軟與啤酒的下降有很大關係。

So that's what I would posit.

這就是我的看法。

And Christine, we're done here, and very much appreciate everybody's questions and certainly hope that everyone has a good holiday, and our folks remain safe.

克里斯汀，我們就到這裡了，非常感謝大家提出的問題，當然希望每個人都有一個愉快的假期，我們的家人也保持安全。

And we'll talk to you again after the year.

年後我們會再次與您交談。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

此時您可以斷開線路。

Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。