Ball Corp (BALL) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Ball Corporation first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Ball Corporation 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Brandon Potthoff, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

現在我很高興介紹您的主持人、投資者關係主管 Brandon Potthoff。謝謝您，先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Christine. Good morning, everyone. This is Ball Corporation's conference call regarding the company's first-quarter 2025 results.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。大家早安。這是鮑爾公司關於公司 2025 年第一季業績的電話會議。

The information provided during this call will contain forward-looking statements. Actual results or outcomes may differ materially from those that may be expressed or implied. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made today. Some factors that could cause the results or outcomes to differ are described in the company's latest Form 10-K, our most recent earnings release and Form 8-K and other company SEC filings, as well as company news releases.

本次電話會議中提供的資訊將包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果或成果可能與明示或暗示的結果或成果有重大差異。我們不承擔更新今天所作的任何前瞻性陳述的義務。該公司最新的 10-K 表格、我們最近的收益報告和 8-K 表格以及其他公司 SEC 文件以及公司新聞稿中描述了一些可能導致結果或成果不同的因素。

If you do not already have our earnings release, it is available on our website at ball.com. Information regarding the use of non-GAAP financial measures may also be found in the Notes section of today's earnings release. In addition, the release includes a summary of noncomparable items, as well as a reconciliation of comparable net earnings and diluted earnings per share calculations. References to net sales and comparable operating earnings in today's release and call do not include the company's former aerospace business. Prior year-to-date net earnings attributable to the corporation and comparable net earnings do include the performance of the company's aerospace business through the sale date of February 16, 2024.

如果您還沒有收到我們的收益報告，您可以在我們的網站 ball.com 上找到。有關使用非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 財務指標的資訊也可在今天的收益報告的註釋部分找到。此外，新聞稿還包括不可比較項目的摘要，以及可比淨收益和稀釋每股盈餘計算的對帳。今天的發布和電話會議中提到的淨銷售額和可比營業收入並不包括該公司以前的航空航天業務。歸屬於公司的前一年迄今淨收益和可比淨收益確實包括了截至 2024 年 2 月 16 日出售日期的公司航空航太業務的業績。

I would now like to turn the call over to our CEO, Dan Fisher.

現在我想將電話轉給我們的執行長 Dan Fisher。

Thank you, Brandon. Today, I'm joined on our call by Howard Yu, EVP and CFO. I will provide some brief introductory remarks. Howard will discuss first quarter financial performance and key metrics for 2025, and then we will finish up with closing comments and Q&A.

謝謝你，布蘭登。今天，執行副總裁兼財務長 Howard Yu 也參加了我們的電話會議。我將作一些簡短的介紹性發言。霍華德將討論 2025 年第一季的財務表現和關鍵指標，然後我們將進行結束語和問答。

I want to take a minute and highlight the amazing work our employees and teams have done to give back to their communities. April was our global volunteer month at Ball, and our employees volunteered more than 640 hours of their time across 11 countries, working to create a positive impact in the communities where we live and work. I want to thank all of our employees who devoted time in April to uplifting our communities. You truly represent our values of We Care, We Work and We Win.

我想花一點時間來強調我們的員工和團隊為回饋社區所做的出色工作。四月是 Ball 的全球志工月，我們的員工在 11 個國家自願奉獻了超過 640 個小時的時間，努力為我們生活和工作的社區帶來積極影響。我要感謝我們所有的員工，他們在四月致力於改善我們的社區。您真正體現了我們的價值觀：我們關懷，我們努力，我們共贏。

Turning to business performance. We delivered strong first quarter results and returned $708 million to shareholders via share repurchases and dividend through today's call. This performance reemphasizes our opportunity to deliver record adjusted free cash flow and comparable diluted earnings per share in 2025.

轉向業務績效。我們第一季取得了強勁的業績，並透過今天的電話會議透過股票回購和股息向股東返還了 7.08 億美元。這一業績再次強調了我們有機會在 2025 年實現創紀錄的調整後自由現金流和可比的每股攤薄收益。

Aluminum packaging continues to outperform other substrates across the globe, demonstrating the resilient and defensive nature of our global business. While we remain mindful of ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and consumer pressures, particularly in the US, we are confident in our ability to proactively manage these challenges and sustain our positive momentum throughout the year to deliver 11% to 14% comparable diluted EPS growth.

鋁包裝在全球的表現持續優於其他基材，展現了我們全球業務的彈性和防禦性。雖然我們仍然注意到與關稅和消費者壓力相關的持續不確定性，特別是在美國，但我們相信我們有能力積極應對這些挑戰，並在全年保持積極的勢頭，實現 11% 至 14% 的可比稀釋每股收益增長。

In EMEA, first quarter volume remained strong as our customers continued to move their package mix to aluminum cans. In South America, volume growth came in slightly ahead of our expectations, driven by positive performance across each geography in which we operate. In North America, volume returned to grow despite a tough comp and economic pressure on the end consumer. Our regional performance culminated in Ball's global shipments being up 2.6% year over year in the first quarter of 2025.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，由於我們的客戶繼續將其包裝組合轉向鋁罐，第一季的銷售量保持強勁。在南美洲，銷售成長略高於我們的預期，這得益於我們經營所在的各個地區均取得了積極的業績。在北美，儘管最終消費者面臨嚴峻的競爭和經濟壓力，但銷售仍恢復成長。我們的區域表現最終導致 Ball 的全球出貨量在 2025 年第一季年增 2.6%。

Looking to the rest of the year, our teams are focused on managing uncertainty while leveraging the inherent resilience and defensiveness of our global portfolio. We remain laser-focused on achieving our stated goal of 11% to 14% comparable diluted earnings per share growth in 2025 and are confident in our proven ability to execute through complexity and deliver value back to shareholders. We continue to anticipate global volume growth in the 2% to 3% range and expect all of our businesses to perform in line with or ahead of the targets outlined at our 2024 Investor Day. This reflects the strength of underlying global demand, the durability of our customer relationships and the operational consistency of our teams across markets.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們的團隊將專注於管理不確定性，同時利用我們全球投資組合固有的彈性和防禦性。我們將繼續專注於實現我們既定的目標，即到 2025 年每股可比攤薄收益增長 11% 至 14%，並且對我們克服複雜情況並為股東創造價值的已證實的能力充滿信心。我們繼續預期全球銷售成長率將在 2% 至 3% 之間，並預期我們所有業務的表現都將達到或超過我們在 2024 年投資者日概述的目標。這反映了全球潛在需求的強勁、我們客戶關係的持久性以及我們團隊在各個市場的營運一致性。

In EMEA, we continue to expect mid-single-digit volume growth in 2025 as the competitive advantage of aluminum packaging and low can penetration rates continue to drive share gains across the region. In South America, recovery in Argentina and Chile, coupled with anticipated growth in Brazil, is expected to drive volume growth above our 4% to 6% long-term range in 2025.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們繼續預計 2025 年銷售將實現中等個位數成長，因為鋁包裝的競爭優勢和低罐滲透率將繼續推動該地區的份額成長。在南美洲，阿根廷和智利的經濟復甦，加上巴西的預期成長，預計將推動 2025 年銷量成長超過我們 4% 至 6% 的長期預期。

In our North American business, higher-than-expected volume growth across nonalcoholic categories more than offset ongoing pressures in mass beer. We remain confident in our ability to deliver volume growth in line with or slightly above the market in 2025. While we are closely monitoring end consumer health, we believe the defensive nature of our portfolio, combined with our strong customer alignment, positions us well to navigate a potential economic slowdown.

在我們的北美業務中，非酒精類產品的銷售成長高於預期，足以抵消大眾啤酒持續面臨的壓力。我們仍然有信心，到 2025 年，我們能夠實現與市場持平或略高於市場的銷售成長。雖然我們正在密切關注終端消費者的健康狀況，但我們相信，我們投資組合的防禦性質，加上我們強大的客戶一致性，使我們能夠很好地應對潛在的經濟放緩。

Lastly, on cups. During the first quarter, we announced the formation of Oasis Venture Holdings, a strategic partnership which consists of the aluminum cup business, including its commercial supply chain and manufacturing teams and the plant in Rome, Georgia. We are the minority partner, and are excited about the long-term potential for the business under this new structure.

最後，關於杯子。第一季度，我們宣布成立Oasis Venture Holdings，這是一個策略合作夥伴關係，涵蓋鋁杯業務，包括其商業供應鏈和製造團隊以及位於喬治亞州羅馬的工廠。我們是少數股東，對新架構下業務的長期潛力感到興奮。

With that, I'll turn it over to Howard to talk about first quarter 2025 results as well as key metrics for 2025.

接下來，我將請霍華德談談 2025 年第一季的業績以及 2025 年的關鍵指標。

Thank you, Dan. Starting with our results. 2025 first quarter comparable diluted earnings per share was $0.76 versus $0.68 in the first quarter of 2024, an increase of 12%. First-quarter comparable net earnings of $216 million were driven by higher volumes, lower interest expense and cost management initiatives, which were able to nearly offset the earnings headwind from the sale of our aerospace business and lower interest income.

謝謝你，丹。從我們的結果開始。 2025 年第一季可比稀釋每股收益為 0.76 美元，而 2024 年第一季為 0.68 美元，成長 12%。第一季可比淨利潤為 2.16 億美元，這得益於銷售增加、利息支出減少和成本管理舉措，這些舉措幾乎抵消了出售航空航太業務和利息收入減少的獲利阻力。

In North and Central America, stronger-than-expected volume performance drove a 2% increase in comparable operating earnings on a challenging comp. Our team executed exceptionally well, successfully improving operational efficiencies and effectively managing the impact of the 232 tariffs and mitigating risk despite a volatile environment. Volume growth was largely driven by strength in energy drinks and nonalcoholic beverages. While we believe there may have been some modest pull forward of orders ahead of anticipated tariffs, we assess this impact as minimal. We remain attentive to the ongoing geopolitical landscape and tariff developments and are actively managing these dynamics.

在北美和中美洲，強於預期的銷售表現推動可比營業利潤在充滿挑戰的競爭環境中成長了 2%。我們的團隊表現非常出色，成功提高了營運效率，有效地管理了 232 關稅的影響，並在動盪的環境中降低了風險。銷售成長主要得益於能量飲料和非酒精飲料的強勁成長。雖然我們認為在預期關稅之前訂單可能會略有提前，但我們認為這種影響很小。我們持續關注當前的地緣政治格局和關稅發展，並積極應對這些動態。

In EMEA, first-quarter segment volume remained robust, and segment comparable operating earnings increased 13%. Demand trends continue to be favorable, reinforcing our confidence in achieving significant year-over-year comparable operating earnings growth in 2025, driven by ongoing operational efficiency improvements and sustained volume growth.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，第一季分部銷售量保持強勁，分部可比營業利潤成長 13%。需求趨勢持續向好，增強了我們對在 2025 年實現同比營業利潤大幅增長的信心，這得益於持續的營運效率提升和銷售的持續增長。

In South America, segment comparable operating earnings increased 25%, supported by strong volume performance across all markets. We are encouraged by consumer conditions in Argentina, which continue to exhibit signs of recovery, and the Brazilian market performed in line with our initial expectations, reflecting a stable operating environment. Our personal and home care business, previously referred to as aerosol, delivered mid-single-digit volume growth in the first quarter. We remain confident in the strength of this business and continue to expect volume growth to exceed our long-term range in 2025.

在南美，由於所有市場的強勁銷售表現，分部可比營業利潤成長了 25%。阿根廷的消費狀況持續呈現復甦跡象，這令我們感到鼓舞，巴西市場的表現符合我們最初的預期，反映出穩定的經營環境。我們的個人和家庭護理業務（以前稱為氣霧劑）在第一季實現了中等個位數的銷售成長。我們對該業務的實力仍然充滿信心，並繼續預計 2025 年銷售成長將超過我們的長期範圍。

Moving on to additional key financial metrics and goals for 2025. We anticipate year-end 2025 net debt to comparable EBITDA to be 2.75 times. We will repurchase at least $1.3 billion worth of shares in 2025, and we'll remain aggressive in repurchasing our stock at what we believe is very attractive pricing. Through today's call, we have repurchased $651 million worth of shares year to date.

繼續討論 2025 年的其他關鍵財務指標和目標。我們預計 2025 年底淨負債與可比 EBITDA 的比率為 2.75 倍。我們將在 2025 年回購至少價值 13 億美元的股票，並且我們將繼續積極地以我們認為非常有吸引力的價格回購股票。透過今天的電話會議，我們今年迄今已回購了價值 6.51 億美元的股票。

2025 CapEx is expected to be slightly below D&A, in the range of $600 million. We anticipate being able to deliver on our target of comparable net earnings equal to adjusted free cash flow in 2025. Relative to the SMA tax payment due to aerospace sale, we expect the remaining portion to be paid in 2025. Our 2025 full year effective tax rate on comparable earnings is expected to be slightly above 22%, largely driven by lower year-over-year tax credits. Full year 2025 interest expense is expected to be in the range of $280 million.

預計 2025 年資本支出將略低於 D&A，約 6 億美元。我們預計在 2025 年將能夠實現可比淨收益等於調整後自由現金流的目標。相對於因航空航太銷售而支付的 SMA 稅，我們預計剩餘部分將在 2025 年支付。我們 2025 年全年可比收益的有效稅率預計將略高於 22%，這主要受同比稅收抵免減少的影響。預計 2025 年全年利息支出將在 2.8 億美元左右。

Full-year 2025 reported adjusted corporate undistributed costs recorded in other nonreportable are expected to be in the range of $150 million.

2025年全年報告的調整後企業未分配成本（記錄在其他非報告中）預計在 1.5 億美元左右。

And last week, Ball's Board declared our quarterly cash dividend. Looking forward, we remain highly focused on operational excellence and disciplined cost management and driving efficiency and productivity across the organization. At the same time, we are closely monitoring volatility in emerging markets and broader geopolitical developments.

上週，Ball 董事會宣布了季度現金股利。展望未來，我們將繼續高度關注卓越營運和嚴格的成本管理，並提高整個組織的效率和生產力。同時，我們正在密切關注新興市場的波動和更廣泛的地緣政治發展。

Thanks to the resilient and defensive nature of our business, combined with our proactive steps we have taken to strengthen our balance sheet, we are well positioned to navigate external uncertainty. With a clear financial runway and strong operational foundation, we are activating initiatives that we believe will enable consistent high-quality results and compounding shareholder returns over the long term.

由於我們業務的彈性和防禦性，加上我們為加強資產負債表而採取的積極措施，我們已做好準備應對外部不確定性。憑藉清晰的財務跑道和強大的營運基礎，我們正在啟動一些舉措，我們相信這些舉措將能夠實現持續的高品質業績並在長期內增加股東回報。

With that, I'll turn it back to Dan.

說完這些，我就把話題轉回給丹。

Thanks, Howard. Our business is performing well, and we have taken meaningful steps to future-proof our operations through long-term contract renewals, strategic deleveraging and footprint optimization. Backed by the strength of our portfolio and the dedication of our teams, we are confident in our ability to achieve our financial goals of delivering 11% to 14% comparable EPS growth, generating adjusted free cash flow in line with comparable net earnings and returning substantial value to shareholders through large-scale share repurchases and dividends in 2025.

謝謝，霍華德。我們的業務表現良好，我們已採取有意義的措施，透過長期合約續約、策略去槓桿和足跡優化來確保我們未來的營運。憑藉我們強大的投資組合和團隊的奉獻精神，我們有信心實現我們的財務目標，即實現 11% 至 14% 的可比每股收益增長、產生與可比淨收益相符的調整後自由現金流，並透過大規模股票回購和股息在 2025 年為股東帶來豐厚價值。

As we focus on execution in '25, we have the opportunity to deliver record adjusted free cash flow and comparable diluted earnings per share. While external volatility has increased since we last spoke in February, particularly around tariffs and geopolitical dynamics, the resilience of our global footprint and our defensive business model give us confidence in our ability to navigate a wide range of outcomes. We remain committed to meeting our customers where they are, providing affordable, innovative aluminum packaging solutions that support a world free from waste.

由於我們專注於 25 年的執行，我們有機會實現創紀錄的調整後自由現金流和可比的每股稀釋收益。雖然自從我們二月上次談話以來，外部波動有所加劇，尤其是在關稅和地緣政治動態方面，但我們全球業務的韌性和防禦性商業模式讓我們有信心應對各種結果。我們始終致力於滿足客戶的需求，提供經濟實惠、創新的鋁包裝解決方案，並支持建立一個沒有浪費的世界。

Creating shareholder value remains our top priority. With the combination of consistent operational performance, disciplined financial management and significant share repurchase alongside dividends, we are confident we can drive meaningful compounding returns for shareholders in 2025 and beyond. We appreciate the work being done across the organization and extend our well wishes to our employees, customers, suppliers, stakeholders and everyone listening today.

創造股東價值仍然是我們的首要任務。憑藉穩定的營運績效、嚴謹的財務管理以及大量的股票回購和股息，我們有信心在 2025 年及以後為股東帶來可觀的複合回報。我們感謝整個組織所做的工作，並向我們的員工、客戶、供應商、利益相關者以及今天聆聽的所有人致以良好的祝愿。

Thank you. And with that, Christine, we are ready for questions.

謝謝。克里斯汀，我們已經準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

（操作員說明）Ghansham Panjabi，Baird。

I guess first off, in Europe and the consistency of volume growth there obviously performing -- pretty much every other geography on the planet pretty consistently over time. Can you just sort of frame for us your supply position there? Where are you from a utilization standpoint? And where do you think the next leg of incremental growth will come from? And then separate to that, was there any sort of pull forward that you could think of as it relates to that region specific to cross-border shipments from Europe to the US ahead of tariffs?

我想首先，歐洲的銷售成長明顯保持一致——幾乎地球上所有其他地區的表現都相當一致。您能否向我們簡單介紹一下您在那裡的供應情況？從利用率的角度來看，您處於什麼位置？您認為下一輪增量成長將來自哪裡？除此之外，在關稅上調之前，您是否能想到針對從歐洲到美國的跨境貨運量採取任何提前措施？

The second question first. I would say no minimal, Ghansham. How to characterize Europe for us. Obviously, we made a couple of pretty significant investments a couple of years ago, built a big facility in the Czech Republic, built a big one an hour outside of London. In both cases, now we've got third lines moving to invest the fourth lines in both.

先說第二個問題。我想說，沒有最低限度，甘沙姆。如何向我們描述歐洲。顯然，幾年前我們進行了幾項相當重大的投資，在捷克共和國建造了一個大型工廠，在距離倫敦一小時車程的地方建造了一個大型工廠。在這兩種情況下，現在我們都有第三條線路來投資第四條線路。

So we're growing at a nice rate. We've benefited from having made those investments, and so we're able to scale those up. We will be getting -- it's getting tight across Europe. We're going to have a little bit more out of pattern freight in peak season. You know this industry well. Given such a hot start we had and such a hot start everyone had.

因此，我們的成長速度非常快。我們從這些投資中獲益，因此我們能夠擴大投資規模。我們將會——整個歐洲的局勢變得越來越緊張。在旺季，我們的貨運量會稍微超出正常水準。你對這個行業很了解。我們有一個如此好的開局，而且每個人都有一個如此好的開局。

So -- we're in a good spot. We like the trajectory of the back half of the year. We think there'll be continued growth going into '26 and '27. And we'll be looking to do some things, hopefully incremental. Nothing significant, and everything has been contemplated in terms of our CapEx to D&A envelope.

所以——我們處於一個很好的位置。我們看好今年下半年的發展軌跡。我們認為 2026 年和 2027 年將持續成長。我們會考慮做一些事情，希望是漸進的。沒有什麼重大的事情，我們的資本支出和折舊攤提前準備都已經考慮過了。

So probably a higher priority on Europe for some incremental investment, nothing significant. Certainly cautious to make sure that supply/demand stays in balance. And that's a marketplace where the labor laws, you got to get it right. You have to maintain real disciplined structure there.

因此，歐洲可能優先考慮一些增量投資，但沒有什麼重大意義。當然要謹慎，確保供需保持平衡。在這個市場上，你必須正確遵守勞動法。你必須在那裡維持真正的紀律結構。

Okay. Got it. And then as it relates to North America, you seem a little bit more -- or at least you have confidence as it relates to your growth relative to the industry for this year. Going back to the analyst meeting from June of last year, all the self-improvement initiatives you outlined there to boost productivity, et cetera. Can you just give us a sense as to where those are tracking relative to your initial plan?

好的。知道了。然後，就北美而言，您似乎更有信心——或者至少您對今年相對於該行業的成長更有信心。回顧去年 6 月的分析師會議，您在那裡概述了所有旨在提高生產力的自我改進舉措等等。您能否告訴我們這些進展相對於您最初的計劃而言處於什麼階段？

And how is that starting to -- reship your sort of baseline as to operating leverage as volumes do start to come back this year in that region?

那麼，隨著今年該地區的銷售量開始回升，這對您的營運槓桿基準有何影響？

Yes. I don't expect margin expansion. Our ability to maintain what we have, I think, is probably a better characterization of North America. In '23 and '24, a lot of heavy lifting in the NCA region. Where we are starting to see some improvements are in Europe and in South America in terms of some of the lean initiatives that are rolled out.

是的。我並不期望利潤率會擴大。我認為，我們維持現有狀態的能力可能更能體現北美的特徵。在 23 年和 24 年，NCA 地區承擔了許多繁重的工作。就一些精實舉措的推出而言，我們開始看到歐洲和南美取得了一些進展。

Obviously, we had to do things quickly from a fixed cost standpoint in North America. And we're further along in the journey in North America and our Ball operating excellence in our Ball Business System. So you should see continued improvement. And I think with the efficiency gains in places like Europe, that may enable us to spend less capital but to step into the growth moving forward.

顯然，從北美固定成本的角度來看，我們必須迅速採取行動。我們在北美的旅程中走得更遠，我們的 Ball 業務系統也更加重視營運卓越性。因此你應該會看到持續的改善。我認為，隨著歐洲等地效率的提高，我們可能能夠花費更少的資本，但實現未來的成長。

Our next question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America. Mr. Staphos, your line is live. Perhaps you have yourself on mute?

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。史塔福斯先生，您的電話已接通。也許您已將自己靜音了？

Stefan Diaz, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的史蒂芬·迪亞茲。

Hi, Dan, Howard, Brandon. Maybe just to begin, if you could just give us a little more details on how you're thinking about tariffs and the potential impact on demand? And maybe if you could particularly touch on your Mexico beer exposure? And maybe what are you hearing from your customers there, just given the extension of tariffs to cover the value of beer cans?

嗨，丹、霍華德、布蘭登。首先，您能否向我們詳細介紹一下您對關稅的看法以及其對需求的潛在影響？您能否特別談談您對墨西哥啤酒的了解？鑑於關稅已延長至涵蓋啤酒罐的價值，您從那裡的顧客那裡聽到了什麼？

Yeah. Maybe I'll start more broadly with North America. We -- the 232 that was rolled out mid-March, excuse me, that's intact. Not a lot has changed. I think that has been well publicized. Think about that in terms of three quarters of $0.01 to $0.01 a can impact. That's really negligible in the grand scheme of economics. The LME has come off. So I think the total delivery economics, it's really not much.

是的。也許我會從北美更廣泛地開始。我們 — — 3 月中旬推出的 232，對不起，它是完整的。沒什麼變化。我認為這已經得到廣泛宣傳。想想四分之三的損失在 0.01 美元到 0.01 美元之間。從宏觀經濟學角度來看，這實在是微不足道。LME已暫停交易。所以我認為整體交付經濟學確實不多。

One particular customer that I think you mentioned that's in our portfolio, they are compliant with the MCA. So yes, they have the 232, but they're not experiencing much of any tariff impact coming across the border.

我認為您提到的特定客戶屬於我們的投資組合，他們符合 MCA。所以是的，他們有 232 條關稅，但他們並沒有受到跨境關稅的太大影響。

And so for us right now, strong start to the year, still continuing to see a -- have got a very constructive outlook on North America, albeit uncertain. Demand relative to the Chinese tariff impacts is the one thing that is probably not agnostic to -- it's consistent across every industry. So that's the one we're looking at, but we haven't seen it. We haven't seen any different behavior from our customers. We haven't seen any forecast change.

因此，對我們來說，今年開局強勁，儘管存在不確定性，但我們仍然對北美市場抱持非常建設性的展望。與中國關稅影響相關的需求可能是一個不可知論的因素——它在每個行業都是一致的。這就是我們正在看的，但我們還沒有看到它。我們並未看到客戶有任何不同的行為。我們沒有看到任何預測變化。

I think the only thing that we're keeping our eye on kind of relative to the segment that you identified is there's certainly been ongoing challenges for brands or categories that are attached more broadly to the Hispanic customer. Because they are not as visible commercially right now for 1 million reasons, and some of them pretty political. So we're watching that. But even with that, that's been fairly persistent here throughout the first quarter and hasn't impacted our volumes to a degree in which we would alter our outlook for the year. So hopefully that gave you a little bit more context on how we're seeing it.

我認為，相對於您所確定的細分市場，我們唯一的重點是，那些與西班牙裔客戶更廣泛相關的品牌或類別肯定面臨著持續的挑戰。因為目前它們在商業上的曝光度並不高，原因很多，其中一些原因相當政治化。所以我們正在關注這一點。但即便如此，這種情況在整個第一季一直持續存在，並沒有對我們的銷售造成影響，以至於改變我們對今年的展望。希望這能讓您更了解我們的看法。

Yeah, yeah. No, that's very helpful. And nice to hear that you're not really seeing an impact to your volumes from that so far. Maybe just sticking with North America, I understand you have less exposure versus peers to nonalcoholic beverages. But how are you thinking about the potential cuts to snap? And has this come up in conversations with your customers at all? And if it has, what are they saying about it?

是啊是啊。不，這非常有幫助。很高興聽到您到目前為止還沒有看到這對您的銷售造成影響。也許只是堅持北美，我知道你與同行相比接觸非酒精飲料的機會較少。但是您如何看待可能出現的削減？您在與客戶的交談中是否曾經提到過這個問題？如果有的話，他們對此有何評論？

Yeah, on the nonalcoholic side of things, they've -- they're constantly reformulating those offerings to make sure that it finds a home, right, with the varying dietary concerns and/or I guess the chemical challenges facing things like GLP, et cetera. So I think they've -- they're reformulating products, they're launching new products. All of those seem to be meeting the customer where they're at. I'm not overly concerned with some of the things you're talking about, the make America healthy initiatives. Yes.

是的，就非酒精飲料而言，他們一直在不斷改進產品配方，以確保它能夠滿足不同的飲食需求，或者我猜想所面臨的化學挑戰，例如 GLP 等等。所以我認為他們正在重新制定產品配方，推出新產品。所有這些似乎都在滿足客戶的需求。我並不太關心你談論的一些讓美國更健康的舉措。是的。

I think it's still going to boil down to economics. And right now, I think most of the large CPG customers that are in those areas are reformulating and innovating in an interesting way in a fast-to-market way that is enabling them to continue to grow.

我認為這仍然歸結於經濟問題。現在，我認為這些地區的大多數大型 CPG 客戶都在以有趣的方式、以快速上市的方式進行重新制定和創新，使他們能夠繼續成長。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)。

Dan, with volumes I think a little bit better than expected, I'm wondering if you could kind of characterize the promotional environment in your major markets? As we get closer to the summer, do you think customer promotions have been more successful than you would have thought? Or are they moving the needle on volumes? Or are there particular sizes or formats that are winning in the market? Or just any color there?

丹，我認為銷量比預期要好一些，我想知道您是否可以描述一下主要市場的促銷環境？隨著夏季的臨近，您是否認為顧客促銷活動比您想像的更成功？還是他們正在推動銷量的成長？或者是否存在在市場上暢銷的特定尺寸或格式？或只是任何顏色？

Yes. In North America, particularly, right? There have been some -- if you look at the energy segment, there have been more innovation in and around flavor profiles and a more deliberate effort to price things to move them. That's been much more constructive. And you're seeing that in the energy segment returning to mid-single digit, high single-digit growth.

是的。特別是在北美，對嗎？如果你看一下能量飲料領域，你會發現在口味方面和周圍都有更多的創新，並且為了推動產品定價也做出了更有針對性的努力。這更有建設性。你會看到能源領域恢復到中等個位數、高個位數的成長。

We had had enough conversations with folks in that segment. We didn't like where they were back in the fourth quarter and second half of the year in terms of the growth trend. So I think we made a conscious effort there, and they're seeing that.

我們已經與該領域的人們進行了​​足夠的對話。就成長趨勢而言，我們不喜歡他們在第四季和下半年的表現。所以我認為我們在那裡做出了有意識的努力，而且他們也看到了這一點。

Nonalcoholic in general, I think there's been enough innovation in that segment along with, again, more constructive pricing to drive volume. You haven't seen that on the beer side, but I also kind of left '24 headed into '25 and are thinking or planning there'll be much more conscious effort in peak season to see some activity around pricing to drive volume. So we're still anticipating some of that.

整體而言，對於非酒精飲料，我認為該領域已經有足夠的創新，同時定價也更具建設性，可以推動銷售。你在啤酒方面還沒有看到這種情況，但我也從 24 年進入 25 年，並​​且正在考慮或計劃在旺季會有更多有意識的努力來觀察圍繞定價的一些活動，以推動銷量。所以我們仍然期待其中的一些。

But writ large and in my comments, nonalcoholics ahead of where we thought even with some of the planned innovations and the plan, thinking to push volume and beer is a little behind. So I think more of the same in nonalcoholic and a little bit more aggressive pricing to push volume in beer, and that sets up for a pretty healthy year for the industry.

但總的來說，在我的評論中，非酒精飲料的銷量比我們想像的要高，即使有一些計劃中的創新和計劃，但推動銷量和啤酒的計劃還是有點落後。因此，我認為非酒精飲料行業將採取類似的做法，並透過更積極的定價來推動啤酒銷量，這將為該行業帶來相當健康的一年。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. And then maybe just following up on that. I mean, on the last earnings call, you announced the purchase of Florida can.

知道了。知道了。這非常有幫助。然後也許只是跟進這一點。我的意思是，在上次財報電話會議上，你們宣布收購佛羅裡達罐頭公司。

Can you give us sort of an update on that? And especially just how that asset kind of fits into what seems like a little bit of a stronger North American market?

您能提供我們有關該問題的最新消息嗎？尤其是這種資產如何適應看起來更強勁的北美市場？

Yes. We'll need the capacity. There's a couple of can sizes that are getting real tight. Unfortunately, that asset does have those capabilities. We'll see more of that impact moving into peak season.

是的。我們需要這種能力。有幾種尺寸的罐子已經變得非常緊俏。不幸的是，該資產確實具備這些能力。進入旺季後，我們會看到這種影響更加明顯。

You see less of it now, right? Obviously, we're still building inventory, getting ready for peak season. So you haven't needed the spot volume opportunity or the additional incremental growth that that presents. But you'll start to lean into it, and as you said, getting off to a good industry start means we'll need that capacity sooner rather than later.

現在你很少看到它了，對嗎？顯然，我們仍在建立庫存，為旺季做準備。因此，您不需要現貨量機會或由此帶來的額外增量成長。但你會開始傾向於它，正如你所說，行業有一個良好的開端意味著我們很快就會需要這種能力。

It's ready to go. The assets are running. It's fully staffed. It's been integrated nicely into our system. So now it's -- to your -- so you're lean there.

一切準備就緒。資產正在運行。人員配備齊全。它已經完美地整合到我們的系統中。所以現在 — — 對你的 — — 所以你在那裡很瘦。

Yeah, I mean, we're looking forward to using that and running it full out here this summer.

是的，我的意思是，我們期待今年夏天在這裡充分使用它並運行它。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的 Phil Ng。

Strong quarter and start to the year. So congrats. Volumes in North America was pretty strong, especially a tough comp from last year. Curious, how has the summer season been kind of shaping up in North America or the trends in April and May? The reason why I asked is because the brewers have still been calling pretty soft trends in North America, and I think you called out some modest -- perhaps prebuy.

本季和今年的開局均表現強勁。恭喜你。北美的銷售相當強勁，尤其是與去年同期相比。好奇的是，北美夏季的情況如何，四月和五月的趨勢如何？我之所以問這個問題，是因為釀酒商仍然預測北美的趨勢相當疲軟，而我認為你預測的可能是預購趨勢。

So does that kind of soften your demand trajectory, call it, 2Q and perhaps the back half of the year?

那麼，這是否會減弱您的需求軌跡，例如第二季以及下半年的需求軌跡？

We're still seeing really positive, constructive start here to April, I guess, we're in May now. So we didn't see much prebuy, just to be clear, maybe others called out a bit of that from the beer side. We didn't see that. What I'm hopeful for -- and it kind of builds off my last question -- is we started -- we entered '25 with pretty strong belief that nonalcoholic segment, energy, in particular, they were going to innovate and they were going to go for volume. They were going to kind of moderate pricing in line with CPI, maybe even take a little less than that and go back and get that category to growth, and I think they've done a nice job at the start, industry-wide.

我想，從四月開始，我們仍然看到非常積極、建設性的開端，現在已經是五月了。因此，我們沒有看到太多的預購，只是為了清楚起見，也許其他人從啤酒方面對此有所提及。我們沒有看到這一點。我所希望的是——這在某種程度上建立在我最後一個問題的基礎上——我們開始——我們進入 25 年時非常堅信，非酒精飲料領域，特別是能量飲料，將會創新，並且會追求銷量。他們將根據消費者物價指數 (CPI) 進行適度定價，甚至可能略低於這一水平，然後讓該類別實現增長，我認為他們一開始就做得很好，對整個行業來說都是如此。

The rest of the non-alcohol category has innovated. They've done nice as well. They've been really constructive on their pricing to push volume, meet the customer where they are from an affordability lens. And then beer, I still think there's going to be significant effort here in peak season to moderate price to levels so that they can move product. I don't think anybody is happy where mass beer is here through the first quarter. And I'm not surprised they're going to have to use the affordability lens and push that.

其餘非酒精類產品也進行了創新。他們也做得很好。他們在定價方面非常有建設性，以推動銷售量，從可負擔的角度滿足客戶的需求。至於啤酒，我仍然認為在旺季他們會付出巨大努力來將價格調整到合適的水平，以便能夠銷售產品。我認為，第一季大眾啤酒的出現不會讓任何人感到高興。我並不驚訝他們必須使用可負擔性的視角來推動這一點。

And so more to come here in peak season. I'm cautiously optimistic if they can do that. We'll be a little ahead on the nonalcohol and if that can catch up to be remotely in line with what we thought at the beginning of the year. I think it bodes for a really nice industry performance here over the back half of the year.

因此，旺季時會有更多人來這裡。如果他們能做到這一點，我持謹慎樂觀的態度。在非酒精飲料方面，我們會稍微領先一些，如果能夠趕上的話，就能大致達到我們年初的預期。我認為這預示著今年下半年該行業將有非常好的表現。

And is it realistic to assume low single digits in North America in the next few quarters this year, still?

那麼，今年接下來幾季北美的經濟成長仍將維持在個位數的低水準嗎？

Yes, that's what we're -- we thought we'd do a little better -- kind of for us, in particular, we thought we'd do a little better kind of Q2, Q3 versus prior year. And we got out a little ahead in Q1. So if that can if that can maintain persist, I think you're kind of in that 1% to 3% range for industry, and I believe we'll be right there. Obviously, we have a little bit more weight on beer, but we also have a little more weight on energy. So those 2 things have netted out to be slightly more positive than we anticipated at this point in the year.

是的，這就是我們的想法——我們認為我們會做得更好——對我們來說，特別是我們認為與去年相比，第二季和第三季的表現會更好一些。我們在第一季略微領先。因此，如果可以維持下去，我認為整個產業的成長率將處於 1% 到 3% 的範圍內，我相信我們也會達到這個水準。顯然，我們在啤酒方面的投入稍微多一些，但我們在能源方面的投入也稍微多一點。因此，這兩件事的整體結果比我們今年此時預期的要積極一些。

That's great. And then Europe certainly sounds like it's getting tighter. Is that an opportunity for pricing and as the kind of next contract kind of set up? And then similarly, in North America, maybe we're a little further away, but I think two of your competitors called out North America potentially getting tightening as well, especially in the summer selling season. Is that an opportunity for you to perhaps to pick up some share?

那太棒了。那麼歐洲聽起來肯定會變得更緊張。這是定價的機會嗎？這是下一份合約的製定機會嗎？同樣，在北美，我們可能距離更遠一些，但我認為你們的兩個競爭對手都表示北美也可能會收緊，尤其是在夏季銷售季節。這是否是您獲得一些份額的機會？

Because I suspect you among your bigger competitors in North America probably have a little more spare capacity. So is that an opportunity during the peak summer months?

因為我懷疑你們在北美的較大競爭對手中可能擁有更多的閒置產能。那麼，這是否是夏季高峰期的一個機會？

Yes. Let me start with Europe first. Europe is -- when you look at the construction of the margin profile in Europe, everybody makes good gross profit. I mean, it's the best -- and it's the best in the world. So pricing is not really the opportunity set.

是的。我首先從歐洲開始。歐洲是——當你查看歐洲的利潤率結構時，你會發現每個人都獲得了良好的毛利。我的意思是，這是最好的——而且是世界上最好的。因此定價並不是真正的機會集。

And then, of course, it's not Europe, right? It's the UK, it's Spain, it's -- there's a little bit more. I think there's balance and there's solid competition in each one of these kind of siloed regions, if you will, subregions within Europe.

當然，它不是歐洲，對吧？有英國，有西班牙，還有更多。我認為，在歐洲的每一個孤立區域（如果你願意的話，也可以說歐洲的次區域）中都存在著平衡和激烈的競爭。

So we like our -- we'd much rather prefer growth on the existing margin in Europe, and we'll try to make it up through efficiency gains. If we're going to expand margins, it would be rolling out kind of all business systems and becoming better operators throughout the -- throughout -- through pan-Europe. In North America, we're pretty tight. So we took out an awful lot of capacity. We did add the Florida can assets.

因此，我們更希望在歐洲現有的利潤率上實現成長，並且我們將嘗試透過提高效率來彌補這一差距。如果我們要擴大利潤，那就需要在整個泛歐洲範圍內推出各種業務系統並成為更好的營運商。在北美，我們的關係相當緊密。因此我們耗費了大量的產能。我們確實增加了佛羅裡達罐頭資產。

We do have some 12-ounce capacity still hung over from -- kind of the Bud Light challenge, if you will, but not a lot. We've really we've tightened our system, and it's reflected in our current margin profile.

我們確實還有一些 12 盎司的容量剩餘——有點像百威淡啤酒的挑戰，如果你願意的話，但不是很多。我們確實已經加強了我們的系統，這反映在我們當前的利潤率狀況中。

So I would say we -- we've got opportunity to grow at the rates we've outlined without adding capital. Obviously, we're going to put the new facility in the Northwest. That should free up capacity in the Southwest. So we've contemplated the next two to three years, having what we need in order to step into the growth algorithm we laid out at Investor Day last year. But there's not a ton of upside.

所以我想說，我們有機會在不增加資本的情況下以我們概述的速度成長。顯然，我們將把新設施設在西北地區。這應該會釋放西南地區的運力。因此，我們考慮了未來兩到三年的情況，以便實現我們去年在投資者日制定的成長演算法。但並沒有太多好處。

Maybe some spot pricing opportunities, maybe some spot market opportunities, having the right mix, having the right can size. Those things could present opportunities for us, but not a bunch of excess capacity to step into.

也許是一些現貨定價機會，也許是一些現貨市場機會，有正確的組合，有正確的罐頭尺寸。這些事情可能會為我們帶來機會，但不會造成大量的過剩產能。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

瑞穗的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯 (Edlain Rodriguez)。

So you maintained the 11% to 14% EPS growth for this year. Can you get there if volume fall short because of tariffs? Or are there other levers you can pull to get to that growth number?

因此，今年你們維持了 11% 至 14% 的每股盈餘成長。如果由於關稅導致數量不足，您能到達那裡嗎？或者您可以利用其他手段來實現這一成長數字？

It's a great question. I guess how far will volume fall, I guess would be the question. We're feeling really good about the low end based on what we see today. And here's how we're looking at tariffs right now. Very constructive start to the year. We know what 232 is, our customers know what 232 is, our suppliers know. We're managing that.

這是一個很好的問題。我想這是一個問題。根據今天看到的情況，我們對低端產品感覺非常好。以下是我們目前對關稅的看法。今年的開端非常有建設性。我們知道 232 是什麼，我們的客戶知道 232 是什麼，我們的供應商也知道。我們正在處理此事。

The wildcard will be the ongoing shock and awe strategy, how quickly does that translate into real identifiable trade deals. I think once we see one or two trade deals show up, it starts to really enable us to frame these scenarios and work a problem set that's identifiable. So I'm hopeful that some -- a couple of things are going to -- are going to break loose in the next 30 to 60 days that we're going to know Japan, maybe Korea, Vietnam, things like that.

不確定因素將是持續的震撼戰略，它能多快轉化為真正可識別的貿易協定。我認為，一旦我們看到一兩筆貿易協議出現，它就開始真正讓我們能夠建立這些場景並解決一組可識別的問題。因此，我希望在未來 30 到 60 天內，一些事情能夠公佈，例如日本、韓國、越南等國的情況。

You raised a good point on China that could be challenging -- ongoing. But I think we're optimistic that we're going to start to see -- get some tea leaves here about what's really going to be in front of us. And then we've done a pretty good job with some significant challenges here over the last two to three years to manage those in a real constructive manner.

您提出的有關中國的觀點很好，但可能會持續帶來挑戰。但我認為，我們樂觀地認為，我們將會開始看到——了解我們真正面臨的情況。在過去的兩三年裡，我們以真正建設性的方式很好地應對了一些重大挑戰。

And so I think that's right in front of us. So I think this uncertainty dissipates, and -- it's uncertain today, but I think that window closes. And then -- but the reality is we haven't been able to talk about this the last couple of years, but this is a -- aluminum packaging -- if people are going to spend less going out, people are going to spend less traveling, et cetera, we typically do well. We're resilient in a recession. We're not inflationary resistant, but we're resilient in a recession.

所以我認為這就在我們面前。所以我認為這種不確定性會消散，而且——今天雖然不確定，但我認為那扇窗戶已經關閉了。然後——但現實是，過去幾年我們一直沒能談論這個問題，但這是一個——鋁包裝——如果人們減少外出支出，減少旅行支出等等，我們通常會做得很好。我們在經濟衰退中保持韌性。我們無法抵禦通貨膨脹，但我們在經濟衰退中具有韌性。

If that's where we're headed, depending on how steep it is, I think the range still holds. Obviously, harder to get to the top end. But then the counter, or the positives would be a weaker dollar, our fastest-growing business, our most profitable business is Europe. There's some currency tailwinds there. So I think as we sit here today, that's exactly the conversation I had with the Board last week.

如果這就是我們要去的地方，那麼根據它的陡峭程度，我認為範圍仍然成立。顯然，要達到頂峰更加困難。但隨後的反面或正面因素是美元走弱，我們成長最快的業務、最賺錢的業務是歐洲。那裡有一些貨幣順風。所以我認為，當我們今天坐在這裡時，這正是我上週與董事會的對話。

It's like -- I'm feeling like we're in this range, and we can navigate it. Yes, I've got a lot of belief in the performance of the team after the last couple of years and what they can do. If we can have an identifiable problem, we typically sprint after it and solve it pretty effectively.

就像——我感覺我們處於這個範圍內，我們可以駕馭它。是的，我對球隊過去幾年的表現以及他們的能力非常有信心。如果我們遇到可識別的問題，我們通常會立即採取行動並非常有效地解決它。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特。

I wanted to follow up on the North and Central America segment. You had, I mean, low single-digit volume growth and you had kind of similar, a little bit lower EBIT growth. I know last year, there was some pull forward. So really just trying to think about the underlying EBIT growth that you had in that segment. And you've pretty consistently, you have talked about 2% to 3% volume growth in that segment for the rest of the year.

我想跟進北美和中美洲部分的情況。我的意思是，你們的銷售成長率只有個位數，而且息稅前獲利成長率也略低一些。我知道去年，有一些進步。所以實際上只是想考慮一下您在該領域的潛在息稅前利潤增長。而且您一直在談論今年剩餘時間內該領域的銷量將增長 2% 至 3%。

What's the type of EBIT leverage we should expect there to go forward?

我們應該預期未來息稅前利潤槓桿會是哪種類型？

Yes. I think it will be closely -- we think about the 2:1 ratio is enterprise-wide, less region by region in terms of that leverage factor. You can have mix impacts quarter-to-quarter. You can have a number of other things manifest, as you know. So I think we'll be kind of holding our earnings profile.

是的。我認為這將是非常接近的——我們認為 2:1 的比例是整個企業的，而不是各個地區之間的槓桿率。每個季度可能會產生不同的影響。如你所知，你可以讓許多其他事物顯現出來。所以我認為我們會保持我們的獲利狀況。

Margin, slight uptick in total comp dollars, and some of this will just be mix related for the back half of the year on how much we go up.

利潤率、總薪酬的小幅上漲，其中一些將與下半年的混合收入有關，取決於我們的成長幅度。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Hi, everyone. Good morning. Can you hear me?

大家好。早安.你聽得到我嗎？

Hi, George. Yes, we thought we lost you there for a second, buddy.

你好，喬治。是的，我們以為我們失去了你，夥計。

It happens, it happens. I appreciate the time and the details. So three questions. One, Dan, you mentioned earlier in the call, you're activating initiatives. And I just wanted to sort of peer under the hood there, if there's anything specific to that or if that's just a continuation of Ball Business Systems and the effect it's having on operating leverage?

它發生了，它發生了。我感謝您的時間和詳細資訊。所以有三個問題。首先，丹，你之前在電話中提到過，你正在啟動一些措施。我只是想深入了解一下，看看這裡面有什麼特別之處，或者這只是 Ball Business Systems 的延續，以及它對經營槓桿的影響？

Secondly, you talk about you don't think there's been much prebuy. And certainly, we take that face value. But where you sit, or Howard, how do you ever know how much pre-buying may happen unless it's after the fact? So like how do you know to be confident about it being a minimal effect?

其次，您說您認為預購不多。當然，我們接受這個表面價值。但是，霍華德，您或您坐在哪裡，除非事後發生，否則您怎麼知道預購的數量是多少？那你怎麼知道它的影響很小呢？

And then last question, I'll turn it over. Your -- this is my phrasing that yours, but you seem cautiously optimistic about your beer customers being a bit more -- I don't know what the right term would be, but more promotional, getting price points optimized. What gives you the comfort, the confidence about that heading into the season, realizing at the end of the day, you're their supplier and they're ultimately going to market, how they market?

接下來是最後一個問題，我會把它翻過來。你的——這是我的措辭，但你似乎對你的啤酒客戶持謹慎樂觀的態度——我不知道正確的說法是什麼，但更多的是促銷，優化價格點。是什麼讓您感到安心和自信，讓您意識到在一天結束時，您是他們的供應商，他們最終會進入市場，他們會如何行銷？

Right. So great question on the prebuy. No, we can't slice and dice this info. It's -- it would be conversations. It would be looking at order patterns versus scanner data, trying to factor out anomalies.

正確的。關於預購，這是一個非常好的問題。不，我們無法對這些資訊進行細分。這——這將是談話。它會查看訂單模式與掃描器數據，試圖找出異常。

I would say there's more thought than licking the finger and putting in the air, but I think you're on to something. It could be -- I mean, it could be a couple of hundred million, George. We think it's somewhere in that kind of 100 to 200, and there was a little bit of pull forward last year as well.

我想說，除了舔手指和放進空氣中之外，還有更多值得思考的事情，但我認為你已經發現了一些道理。可能是——我的意思是，可能是幾億美元，喬治。我們認為這個數字在 100 到 200 之間，去年也出現了一點增長。

So minimally on a comp year-over-year, not a lot of delta. But that's probably the extent of the analysis. It's a good call out. We know that some of our customers too that we're shipping over the border because their volumes were already dissipating in the fourth quarter and the beginning of the first quarter, they were pretty full up on inventory. So there wasn't an ability to pull forward as much.

因此，與去年同期相比，最低限度的增幅並不大。但這可能就是分析的範圍。這是一個很好的呼籲。我們知道，我們的一些客戶也正在通過邊境發貨，因為他們的發貨量在第四季度和第一季初就已經在減少，他們的庫存已經相當充足。因此，沒有能力向前邁進一步。

I would have expected to see it from a couple of customers that I have my eyes out. We were asking those questions here over the last three to four weeks, but they were -- their volumes were already coming off, right? So they didn't have a whole lot of warehouse capacity or distributor capacity to kind of stuff the channel further.

我本來以為會有幾位顧客看到我的眼睛都瞎了。過去三到四周我們一直在問這些問題，但他們的交易量已經下降了，對吧？因此，他們沒有足夠的倉庫容量或分銷商容量來進一步填補通路。

Those are the factors of the nuance that gets me to this. And we're not with everybody. And so there could very well be some pull forward in the overall marketplace. But from what we saw in our numbers, not a great deal to speak to at this point.

這些就是讓我得出這個結論的細微因素。我們並不是和每個人都一樣。因此，整個市場很可能會出現一些推動作用。但從我們的數據來看，目前還沒有什麼好說的。

Okay.

好的。

And then just honing in on similar -- we're in front of our customers quite a bit. We have a lot of conversations. I don't want to give too much away, but I do think a couple large brewers, I think they've even said in some of their investor discussions as like, hey, we want a more concentrated effort when people are going to be attending barbecues and such, and we'd rather spend our marketing dollars there.

然後，我們就開始專注於類似的事情——我們經常站在客戶面前。我們進行了很多對話。我不想透露太多，但我確實認為有幾家大型啤酒廠，我想他們甚至在一些投資者討論中說過，嘿，當人們參加燒烤等活動時，我們希望更加集中精力，我們寧願把營銷資金花在那裡。

Now in fairness, that doesn't mean there's going to be affordability price lens. But typically, when I hear that a more concentrated effort, there is some combination of more public-facing marketing and a base effort to move volume during that period. So that's where it's coming from. Those are the things I've heard fairly consistently. And that makes sense.

公平地說，這並不意味著會有價格實惠的鏡頭。但通常情況下，當我聽到需要更集中的努力時，就會結合更多面向大眾的行銷和基本努力來提高那段時期的銷售量。這就是它的來源。這些都是我常聽到的事情。這是有道理的。

I don't know why you're trying to push product in a dry January. Maybe there's something there. Maybe there's something there. There was one other question that I think you wanted me to hit on, sorry?

我不知道你為什麼要在乾燥的一月推銷產品。也許那裡有什麼東西。也許那裡有什麼東西。我想您還想讓我問另一個問題，對不起？

You said during your remarks that you're activating initiatives, and I just wanted to probe exactly kind of what that was referring to? Is that just the benefits of what you've been doing with Ball Business System? Or is there something specific there, whatever you could share?

您在演講中說您正在啟動一些舉措，我只是想探究一下這到底指的是什麼？這就是您使用 Ball Business System 所獲得的好處嗎？或是那裡有什麼具體的東西，可以分享嗎？

Thank you, George. Yes, nothing more than just ongoing rolling it out. It's going to take us 18, 24 months to roll it out across every plant. I think we're about 2/3 of the way there at this point. We started with safety, quality.

謝謝你，喬治。是的，只不過是持續推出而已。我們需要 18 到 24 個月的時間才能推廣到每家工廠。我認為我們現在已經完成了三分之二的路程。我們從安全和品質開始。

There were some obvious things we did from a capacity standpoint, but we're seeing significant improvements in safety, significant improvements in quality. We had a number of record production weeks and days during the first quarter. So we get this rolled out over our entire infrastructure and facilities I think you'll see the consistency of performance and a lot of positive knock-on effects. So we're just leaning into that more fully. It's built into a lot of our thinking already.

從容量角度來看，我們做了一些顯而易見的事情，但我們看到安全性和品質都有顯著的提升。我們在第一季創造了多個生產週數和生產日數的記錄。因此，我們將其推廣到我們整個基礎設施和設施中，我認為您會看到性能的一致性和許多積極的連鎖反應。所以我們只是更全面地傾向於此。它已經融入我們的許多思維中。

So I wouldn't say there's anything incremental, but steady progress on kind of what we described at our Investor Day a year ago.

因此，我不會說有任何漸進式的進展，而是像我們一年前在投資者日所描述的那樣穩步取得進展。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

I think in capital expenditures in the quarter, you spent $80 million. Can you get all the way to $600 million? Why was the spending so low in the beginning of the year? And why should it be much higher later in the year?

我認為本季的資本支出為 8000 萬美元。您能賺到 6 億美元嗎？為什麼年初的支出這麼低？為什麼今年稍後價格會上漲這麼多呢？

Yes. So Jeff, I think with regards to the Northwest facility that Dan had specifically talked about, I think that we're moving slower there. And so you will see that ramp up in the tail end of this year. And so what we said is that $600 million is probably the high end of that, in aggregate. And we'll look at things and depending on how things shape up throughout the year, we may moderate.

是的。所以傑夫，我認為就丹特別談到的西北工廠而言，我認為我們在那裡的進展較慢。因此，您會看到今年年底這一數字會上升。因此我們說，總體而言，6 億美元可能是最高金額。我們會觀察情況，並根據全年情況的發展情況，進行調整。

But at this position, we see the funnel for CapEx and what we want to do, including some of the maintenance work that's required as well. And so we'll lean into that a little bit more as the year goes.

但在這個位置，我們看到了資本支出的漏斗以及我們想要做的事情，包括一些所需的維護工作。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們會更傾向於這一點。

Okay. And then secondly, your inventories jumped from the fourth quarter to the first quarter by about 10%. Is that just a seasonal number? Or is there something else going on?

好的。其次，你們的庫存從第四季到第一季成長了約 10%。這只是一個季節性的數字嗎？還是有其他事情發生？

Yes. It's just a seasonal number. It's a good question. It's in line with what we expected to start the year. The inventories were lower -- at the end of the fourth quarter, volumes were so soft at the end of the year that we've rebuilt and we're seeing the strength in -- across all the markets in terms of volumetric outlook.

是的。這只是一個季節性數字。這是個好問題。這與我們年初的預期一致。庫存較低 - 在第四季度末，年底的庫存量非常疲軟，以至於我們進行了重建，並且從庫存量前景來看，我們看到了所有市場的強勁表現。

So I think we're positioned, right? We're not -- it's not heavy. Probably had some benefit in terms of some absorption relative to the prior year, but kind of in line with what we expected, nothing out of the ordinary.

所以我認為我們已經定位了，對嗎？我們並不——它並不重。與前一年相比，在吸收方面可能有一些好處，但與我們的預期一致，沒有什麼不尋常的。

Michael Roxland, Truist.

邁克爾·羅克克蘭（Michael Roxland），Truist。

This is Nico Piccini on for Mike. Just first off, moving back to maybe margins in North and Central America. I think EBITDA margins are around like 17% right now versus mid-teens maybe a few years ago. At the same time, CPGs are being squeezed on some continued volume weakness. And then on top of all that, you had some favorable pricing a few years ago when supply/demand was tighter.

我是 Nico Piccini，代替 Mike 發言。首先，讓我們回到北美和中美洲的邊緣地區。我認為目前的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 17%，而幾年前大概只有 15% 左右。同時，由於銷售量持續疲軟，快速消費品公司也受到擠壓。除此之外，幾年前供需緊張的時候，你還可以獲得一些優惠的價格。

Can you just comment on maybe your expectations for margin sustainability going forward in light of that? And as contract negotiations come up in the next few years?

有鑑於此，您能否評論一下您對未來利潤可持續性的期望？那麼未來幾年合約談判將會如何進行呢？

Yes, we're at a kind of a high water market -- mark in our North America margins to sustain these. Given the backdrop that you described, I think every one of our CPG customers is talking about affordability and an affordability lens. We're already meeting them in long-term planning sessions, joint planning sessions to figure out more efficient routes to market, more efficient ways to deliver the product. We're going to have to do quite a bit to help our customers make their margins and push product and advertise and promote. So we're going to have to play a role in that for sure, moving forward.

是的，我們正處於一種高水位市場——我們在北美的利潤率可以維持這些。鑑於您所描述的背景，我認為我們的每位 CPG 客戶都在談論可負擔性和可負擔性的視角。我們已經在長期規劃會議、聯合規劃會議上與他們會面，以找出更有效的市場途徑、更有效的產品交付方式。我們必須做很多工作來幫助我們的客戶賺取利潤、推銷產品、做廣告和促銷。因此，我們肯定要在這方面發揮作用，繼續前進。

But I think what we've been able to do thus far is kind of overdeliver on focusing on our core, the Ball Business System, the efficiency gains we're seeing, more constructive footprint. So all of those are playing a role. I would suggest that, yes, we're -- I mean, volumes start to come by, right? And it's probably coming at a different price for our customers. And I think if we're the partners that we ascribe to be, then we'll participate in that moving forward.

但我認為，到目前為止，我們所能做的就是超額完成我們的核心任務，即 Ball Business System，我們看到了效率的提高，以及更具建設性的足跡。所以所有這些都在發揮作用。我認為，是的，我們——我的意思是，數量開始增加，對吧？對於我們的客戶來說，它的價格可能會有所不同。我認為，如果我們是我們所認定的合作夥伴，那麼我們就會參與其中並向前邁進。

And that's why I've been pretty consistent on can we maintain these margins. And that's certainly our goal.

這就是為什麼我一直堅信我們能否維持這些利潤率。這當然是我們的目標。

Perfect. Understood. Very helpful. Just a follow-up there. I think some of your peers have been speaking about mix -- specialty mix in North America versus standard cans.

完美的。明白了。非常有幫助。這只是後續行動。我認為你們的一些同行一直在談論混合——北美特種混合與標準罐的比較。

Just wondering what you're seeing in specialty cans and if you're adjusting your mix at all and if there's any margin impact there?

只是想知道您在特種罐中看到了什麼，以及您是否正在調整您的組合，以及這是否會對利潤產生影響？

There's a little bit of -- I think 12 Sleek is growing at a very healthy clip. So depending on whether you call that special or not, I think that would be nomenclature or definition that will play a role. And then the most affordable package when you start thinking about how some of the beer folks are playing, precisely to your previous question, 12-ounce cans, you can run a lot of them, you can fill them quick, you can package them and cubes very nicely. So I think 12 standard cans in this environment may play a bigger role. And so I think that affordability wins.

有一點——我認為 12 Sleek 正在以非常健康的速度成長。因此，取決於你是否稱之為特殊，我認為這將是命名法或定義發揮作用的地方。然後，當您開始思考一些啤酒愛好者是如何玩的時候，最實惠的包裝就是 12 盎司的罐子，您可以用很多，您可以快速填充它們，您可以很好地包裝它們並切成方塊。所以我覺得12個標準罐在這種環境下可能會發揮更大的作用。所以我認為負擔能力才是最重要的。

There's ways to play it in terms of efficiencies throughout the system. That's one. Certainly, on the beer side, I think you're seeing more and more of that play out. But still specialty category, 7.5 ounces growing very nicely, 12 Sleek is growing very nicely, 24-ounce is continuing to grow. So specialty continues to grow, but I think depending on what segment, what brand you're looking at, what channel, plain as affordability wins, I think, different pack mixes and different sizes, different price points are important as well.

就整個系統的效率而言，有多種方法可以發揮作用。那是一個。當然，就啤酒方面而言，我認為你會看到越來越多這樣的情況。但仍然是特殊類別，7.5 盎司增長非常好，12 Sleek 增長非常好，24 盎司繼續增長。因此專業化程度不斷提高，但我認為，這取決於你關注的細分市場、品牌、管道，顯然，價格實惠才是王道，不同的包裝組合、不同的尺寸、不同的價格點也很重要。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

Can you say a little bit more on the trends that you're seeing in Latin America? Obviously, it's been a fairly volatile few years, but just how should the Street generally be thinking about not only the second half of '25 into '26, '27 in both the Brazilian and it seems like Argentina is going down a bit?

您能否再多說一下您在拉丁美洲看到的趨勢？顯然，這是相當動盪的幾年，但華爾街應該如何看待不僅是 25 年下半年到 26 年、27 年，巴西和阿根廷的經濟似乎都在下滑？

Sure. Yes, Chris, we entered the year -- Brazil was -- inflation was running a bit hot entering '25. And our belief was sort of 2% to 3% growth in Brazil was about right for the industry. Seems to be playing out that way. We were a little under that in the first quarter because our partner down there didn't win in the marketplace.

當然。是的，克里斯，我們進入了這一年——巴西——25 年後通貨膨脹有點高。我們認為，巴西 2% 至 3% 的成長率對於該行業來說是合適的。似乎正在發生這樣的事情。由於我們的合作夥伴在市場上沒有獲勝，因此我們在第一季的業績略低於這一水平。

So mix played a role in that. But the rest of our portfolio, Chile, Paraguay, Peru, Argentina, all of those countries are recovering and all of them were up nicely. And so when I talk about getting to -- in excess of our long-term 4% to 6% growth rates in that region, that's how we're going to get there in '25. And there should be a knock-on effect for some nice growth in line with our long-term goals for '26 as well, getting out ahead of my skis in the '27.

因此混合在其中發揮了作用。但我們投資組合中的其餘國家，智利、巴拉圭、秘魯、阿根廷，所有這些國家都在復甦，而且都表現良好。因此，當我談到實現該地區長期 4% 至 6% 以上的成長率時，這就是我們在 25 年要實現的目標。而這應該會產生連鎖反應，以實現符合我們 26 年長期目標的良好增長，並在 27 年領先於我的滑雪目標。

The contracts are all there. It's just going to be what's happening from a macro standpoint in South America. But we like the back half of '25 and '26 and the recovery of these countries that, as you frame in your question, were much softer. The last 18 months.

合約都在那裡。這只是從宏觀角度來看南美洲正在發生的事情。但我們喜歡 25 年和 26 年下半年以及這些國家的復甦，正如您在問題中所述，這些國家的復甦要溫和得多。過去 18 個月。

And just as a quick follow-up, just turning over to Europe. Europe generally, I think it's been surprising. The demand side, obviously, has also been some puts and takes. But just intermediate term, how should we be thinking about just the supply/demand dynamics across the region? And how are you personally thinking about that over the next year, 1.5 years or so?

作為一個快速的後續行動，我們直接轉向歐洲。我認為整個歐洲的情況都令人驚訝。顯然，需求方面也存在一些利弊。但從中期來看，我們該如何看待整個地區的供需動態？您個人對未來一年或一年半左右的情況有何看法？

Yes. It presents more growth than North and Central America because the substrate shift away from glass. It presents close to the growth rates in South America, but of course, off a bigger base. So the volume will be of a size and scale that will be bigger than South America. And capacity adds, and you can even see it if you go back and look at what we did. When we added facilities, we added one in the UK, we added one in the Czech Republic. These are much friendlier labor markets and labor pools.

是的。由於基材不再是玻璃，其成長速度比北美和中美洲更快。它的成長率接近南美，但當然基數更大。因此其產量和規模將比南美洲還要大。而且容量增加了，如果你回頭看看我們所做的事情，你甚至可以看到這一點。當我們增加設施時，我們在英國增加了一個，在捷克共和國增加了一個。這些是更友善的勞動市場和勞動力資源。

And so I think you just have to be mindful of where you're building. It's harder to build in Europe, zoning, permitting, water, wastewater treatment, all of that, it takes longer. And you have to be incredibly constructive about your views on the next 20 to 30 years. So there has always been a bit more discipline, if you will, of not betting on the come to some extent. And so I would expect the industry thinks that way as well.

所以我認為你只需要留意你在哪裡建造。在歐洲建造建築物更加困難，區域劃分、許可、供水、廢水處理等等都需要更長的時間。而且你必須對未來 20 到 30 年有極具建設性的看法。因此，如果你願意的話，總是會有更多的紀律，不要在某種程度上押注未來。因此我希望業界也會這麼想。

But -- I mean, I don't want to stem the growth. I think it's coming from a -- we're at the high 20% now of substrate mix. It should go to -- if it's anywhere like the rest of the world, it goes somewhere between the mid 40s and low 50s. So it's a decadal shift that we're experiencing, undergoing in our customers, whether they're nonalcohol, energy, alcohol, they also see the same thing. You just have to be very planful and methodical about putting capital in the ground there, probably much more so than anywhere else in the world.

但是——我的意思是，我不想阻止這種成長。我認為這是由於——我們現在的基質混合比例高達 20%。它應該達到 — — 如果它和世界其他地方一樣，它會達到 40 多度到 50 多度之間。所以，我們正在經歷一場跨越十年的轉變，我們的客戶，無論他們喝的是非酒精飲料、能量飲料還是酒精飲料，都看到了同樣的事情。你只需要非常有計劃、有條不紊地將資本投入到那裡，可能比世界上任何其他地方都要多得多。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC.

阿倫·維斯瓦納坦（RBC）。

Great. Congrats on the strong Q1 there. I guess, first off, just on the price/mix. So you guys did a little bit better than what we thought in all three segments. And it looks like definitely, price/mix played a good role there.

偉大的。恭喜您第一季取得強勁業績。我想，首先，只是價格/組合。所以你們在這三個部分的表現都比我們想像的要好一些。看起來價格/組合確實發揮了良好的作用。

But would you say your outperformance from -- on the segment EBIT perspective was kind of equally split between slight volume outperformance, price/mix and strong execution and running well? Or was 1 of those factors maybe more contributory? And I guess do you expect that to continue?

但是，您是否會說，從息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 分部角度來看，您的優異表現是平均分配在銷售略有優異、價格/組合以及強勁的執行力和良好的運行之間？或者其中一個因素可能影響更大？我想您認為這種情況會持續下去嗎？

Yes. I think pretty consistent operational performance. I wouldn't say there's much of an uplift there to have been at this in North America for a couple of years now. Probably a little bit more on the mix side of things, more so than the volume. The volume is probably enough to offset, to some extent, the inflationary pressures that you're experiencing.

是的。我認為營運表現相當穩定。我不認為北美這幾年的情況有太大的改善。可能在混合方面比音量方面更重要。這個數量可能足以在某種程度上抵消你所經歷的通膨壓力。

And then favorable mix and a little bit of operational efficiency is how you would have flown through a bit more profit.

然後，良好的組合和一點點的營運效率就是你獲得更多利潤的方式。

Okay. Great. And then you mentioned that the Florida line has been integrated and will be running full out. So I guess I'm just curious on the contracting and filling up that facility and maybe even your others in North America are contracting -- how long are your contracts now? Are they still kind of maybe in the year or so level?

好的。偉大的。然後您提到佛羅裡達線路已經整合並將全力運行。所以我想我只是對該設施的承包和填補感到好奇，也許你們在北美的其他設施也在承包——你們現在的合約期限是多長？他們是否仍處於一年左右的水平？

What's your visibility on the volumes over the next few quarters? And I guess, when you -- do you look at sell-through or do you look at kind of contracting to achieve that visibility? Is it necessary that you see a full sell-through of the cans that you sell to your customers? Or is it contracting that's more important? Or maybe both, I don't know?

您對未來幾季的銷售有何預期？我想，當您——您是否會考慮銷售率或是否考慮簽訂合約來實現這種知名度？您是否有必要看到您賣給客戶的罐頭全部售出？還是簽約比較重要？或者兩者皆有，我不知道？

Contracting is the most important over the medium-term period in planning your assets, supply/demand. Scanner data, coupled with inventory, getting a handle on your customers, their inventory safety stock levels. And also, you're needing to know that from their relationship with their retailer. You have to have all of those connected in order to really have an understanding of what the volume is in the quarter-to-quarter since that I think you were pressing. And then the only other thing I would say, just specific to Florida can, would be I said we'll run it all out here during peak season.

在規劃資產、供應/需求時，簽訂合約在中期是最重要的。掃描器數據，加上庫存，可以了解您的客戶及其庫存安全庫存水準。而且，您還需要從他們與零售商的關係中了解這一點。您必須將所有這些聯繫起來，才能真正了解季度環比增長量，因為我認為您一直在強調這一點。然後我要說的另一件事，具體到佛羅裡達州，就是我們會在旺季期間把這裡的所有東西都用完。

Okay. That's helpful.

好的。這很有幫助。

So it's that good. Yes, they're still -- like the still -- there's definitely capacity in shoulder seasons in North America. Yes. So it will be product specific, and it will be peak season. You'll be able to step into potentially some spot opportunities.

所以它就這麼好。是的，北美的平季期間肯定還有容量。是的。因此，這將是針對特定產品的，並且將是旺季。您將有機會抓住一些潛在的機會。

But right now, we're almost there and peak season, so we're running.

但現在，我們快到了旺季，所以我們正在努力。

Right. And so just putting that together then, you still feel confident in your volume outlook for the full year in North and Central America. Is that correct?

正確的。因此，綜合考慮這些因素，您仍然對北美和中美洲全年的銷售前景充滿信心。對嗎？

I do for what's in front of us, yes.

是的，為了我們面前的事物，我會這麼做。

Thank you. We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. Mr. Fisher, I'd like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

謝謝。問答環節已結束。費雪先生，我想把發言權交還給您，請您發表最後評論。

Yes. I appreciate everyone's question time, and look forward to seeing you here, and hopefully, a more certain and less noisy second quarter update.

是的。我感謝大家的提問時間，並期待在這裡見到你們，並希望第二季度的更新更加確定且不那麼喧鬧。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。