美國運通 (AXP) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Express Q1 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Mr. Kartik Ramachandran. Thank you. Please go ahead.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待。歡迎參加美國運通2025年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒您，今天的通話將會被錄音。現在我謹將會議交給我們的主持人、投資者關係主管卡爾蒂克·拉馬錢德蘭先生。謝謝。請繼續。

Thank you, Donna, and thank you all for joining today's call. As a reminder, before we begin, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance. These are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties.

謝謝唐娜，也謝謝各位參加今天的電話會議。提醒各位，在開始之前，今天的討論包含有關公司未來業務和財務表現的前瞻性陳述。這些預測是基於管理層目前的預期，但存在風險和不確定性。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation slides and in our reports on file with the SEC. The discussion today also contains non-GAAP financial measures. The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials, as well as the earnings materials for the prior periods we discussed. All of these are posted on our website at ir.americanexpress.com.

可能導致實際結果與這些聲明有重大差異的因素已包含在今天的簡報和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中。今天的討論也涉及非GAAP財務指標。本季的獲利資料中包含了可比較的 GAAP 財務指標，以及我們之前討論過的前幾個期間的獲利資料。所有這些資訊都發佈在我們的網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上。

We'll begin today with Steve Squeri, Chairman and CEO, who will start with some remarks about the company's progress and results. And then, Christophe Le Caillec, Chief Financial Officer, will provide a more detailed review of our financial performance. After that, we'll move to a Q&A session on the results with both Steve and Christophe. With that, let me turn it over to Steve.

今天我們首先請董事長兼執行長史蒂夫·斯奎裡 (Steve Squeri) 發言，他將首先就公司的發展和業績發表一些看法。然後，財務長克里斯托夫·勒凱萊克將對我們的財務業績進行更詳細的回顧。之後，我們將與史蒂夫和克里斯托夫進行問答環節，討論討論結果。那麼，接下來就交給史蒂夫吧。

Thanks Kartik. Good morning and thanks for joining us. We had another strong quarter to start the year. We delivered revenues of $17 billion, up 8% year over year on an FX adjusted basis or 9% excluding the leap year impact. And we generated net income of $2.6 billion or $3.64 per share.

謝謝卡爾蒂克。早安，感謝各位收看。今年開局我們又迎來了一個強勁的季度。我們實現了 170 億美元的收入，按匯率調整後較去年同期成長 8%，不計閏年影響則較去年同期成長 9%。我們實現了26億美元的淨利潤，即每股3.64美元。

During the first quarter, our premium customer base continued to spend at healthy levels. Total Card Member spending grew 6% in the quarter, or 7% excluding the impact of leap year, with spending on Goods and Services continuing to grow at a faster rate than in 2024.

第一季度，我們的優質客戶群持續保持健康的消費水準。本季持卡會員總支出成長了 6%，若不計閏年的影響，則成長了 7%，其中商品和服務支出持續以比 2024 年更快的速度成長。

In T&E, while we saw a sequential slowdown in airline Billings growth, Billings in restaurants and lodging remained strong in the quarter, and overall T&E growth was in line with the steady levels we saw through most of last year. We also continued to grow our customer base, adding 3.4 million new cards in the quarter. As in past quarters, Millennial and Gen-Z Consumers made up over 60% of new Consumer accounts acquired globally in Q1.

在差旅及娛樂方面，雖然我們看到航空業賬單增長環比放緩，但餐飲和住宿業賬單在本季度依然強勁，整體差旅及娛樂業增長與去年大部分時間裡我們看到的穩定水平一致。我們的客戶群也持續成長，本季新增了 340 萬張卡片。與過去幾季一樣，千禧世代和 Z 世代消費者在第一季全球新增消費者帳戶中佔比超過 60%。

In addition, card fee growth was up 20% on an FX adjusted basis. Retention continued to be high, and our credit performance remained excellent. While it's still very early in the second quarter, through the first week and a half in April, overall spending levels have remained consistent with what we saw in the first quarter in both Goods and Services and T&E, and across all customer segments.

此外，經匯率調整後，信用卡手續費增加了 20%。客戶留存率持續維持高位，我們的信貸表現依然優異。雖然現在才剛進入第二季度，但截至 4 月的前一周半，無論是商品和服務還是差旅支出，以及所有客戶群體，整體支出水準都與第一季保持一致。

Based on the steady spend and credit trends we've seen to date, we're maintaining our full year revenue growth guidance of 8% to 10%, and EPS of $15.00 to $15.50. While we recognize that, that uncertainty in the environment has increased, the guidance incorporates the changes that we see in the macroeconomic outlook as of today.

基於迄今為止穩定的消費和信貸趨勢，我們維持全年營收成長預期為8%至10%，每股盈餘預期為15.00美元至15.50美元。儘管我們意識到當前環境的不確定性有所增加，但該預期已納入我們目前對宏觀經濟前景的觀察變化。

As we think about the near future, we have a resilient and differentiated business model that positions us well to navigate a range of economic environments. First and foremost, we have a global, premium customer base at scale. In fact, as our customer base has grown over the past several years, it has gotten even more premium. Our Card Members have high incomes, are loyal, high spending, and have excellent credit profiles. And as you know, we underwrite all our Card Members through the credit cycle.

展望不久的將來，我們擁有具有韌性和差異化的商業模式，這使我們能夠很好地應對各種經濟環境。首先，我們擁有龐大的全球優質客戶群。事實上，隨著過去幾年客戶群的成長，我們的服務也變得更高端了。我們的持卡會員收入高、忠誠度高、消費額高，且信用記錄良好。如您所知，我們會對所有持卡會員進行信用審核。

Another key differentiator of our model is our mix of revenues, with the combination of spend and fees accounting of 75% of our overall revenue base, which makes us less reliant on lending revenues and less sensitive to credit cycles compared to our competitors. Also, we have significant expense leverage and flexibility that has grown as our scale has increased over the past several years, enabling us to effectively control our costs while continuing to invest for the long-term.

我們模式的另一個關鍵差異在於我們的收入結構，支出和費用加起來占我們總收入的 75%，這使得我們與競爭對手相比，對貸款收入的依賴程度較低，對信貸週期的敏感度也較低。此外，隨著過去幾年規模的擴大，我們的支出槓桿和靈活性也顯著提高，這使我們能夠在有效控製成本的同時，繼續進行長期投資。

In addition to the natural hedges in our customer engagement expenses, we have several levers across our marketing and operating expense lines, enabling us to quickly pivot if the environment changes. Looking ahead, we'll need to see how things play out in the coming months. That said, we are operating from a position of strength, and we have a set of principles that guide us.

除了客戶互動費用方面的自然對沖之外，我們在行銷和營運費用方面還有多種槓桿，使我們能夠在環境變化時迅速調整策略。展望未來，我們需要觀察未來幾個月事態的發展。儘管如此，我們仍處於優勢地位，我們有一套指導我們行動的原則。

Our fundamental objective, as it is with everything we do, is to manage the company for the long-term growth for our shareholders. As we do so, we are focused on four core principles. Above all, we'll back our customers through ongoing enhancements to our products and services, as well as providing support for those who may need it. We'll also back our colleagues so they continue to focus on innovating for our customers and providing a world-class experience that is core to our brand.

我們所做的一切，其根本目標都是為了股東的長期發展而管理公司。在進行這項工作時，我們主要關註四個核心原則。最重要的是，我們將透過不斷改進產品和服務來支援我們的客戶，並為可能需要幫助的人提供支援。我們也會全力支持我們的同事，讓他們繼續專注於為我們的客戶進行創新，並提供世界級的體驗，這正是我們品牌的核心所在。

We'll exercise disciplined expense management using the various levers in our business model to maintain financial flexibility. And we'll continue to invest strategically for the long-term in areas that strengthen our foundational capabilities, such as technology, control management, and customer acquisition, as well as capitalizing on opportunities that emerge for expanding our Membership Model with new and enhanced products, services, and experiences.

我們將運用商業模式中的各種手段，實施嚴格的費用管理，以維持財務彈性。我們將繼續進行長期策略性投資，重點關注能夠增強我們基礎能力的領域，例如技術、控制管理和客戶獲取，同時抓住出現的機會，透過新的和改進的產品、服務和體驗來擴展我們的會員模式。

As we move ahead, we are committed to following these principles and leveraging the advantages of our business model, which makes me confident that we are well positioned for continued growth over the long-term. I'll now turn it over to Christophe to provide more color on our first quarter results, and then we'll answer your questions.

展望未來，我們將致力於遵循這些原則，並充分利用我們商業模式的優勢，這讓我相信，我們已做好充分準備，以實現長期持續成長。現在我將把發言權交給克里斯托夫，讓他為我們詳細介紹第一季度的業績，之後我們將回答大家的問題。

Thank you, Steve, and good morning everyone. In the first quarter, we generated 8% FX-adjusted revenue growth, or 9% excluding the impact of leap year and earnings per share of $3.64. These results are tracking in line with the guidance we gave for the full year.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早安。第一季度，我們實現了經匯率調整後的8%的營收成長，若不計閏年的影響，則成長了9%，每股收益為3.64美元。這些業績與我們對全年業績的預期相符。

Key business indicators such as spend, retention, credit performance, and demand for our premium products continued to be strong and stable in the quarter. While the level of macroeconomic uncertainty has increased, the activity that we see across our customer base is consistent with, and in many cases better than, what we saw in 2024.

本季度，支出、客戶留存率、信貸表現以及對我們高端產品的需求等關鍵業務指標持續保持強勁穩定。儘管宏觀經濟的不確定性有所增加，但我們從客戶群中看到的活動與 2024 年的情況一致，而且在許多情況下比 2024 年的情況更好。

Turning to Billed Business performance starting on slide 3, I'd remind you that the grow-over from leap year in 2024 drove about a percentage point drag on year-over-year growth rates across segments and spend categories. As we look at spend trends over the next few slides, I'll speak to Billed Business growth rates that are adjusted for Leap year as well as FX.

從第 3 張投影片開始，我們來看「已計費業務」的業績。我想提醒大家，2024 年閏年帶來的成長導致各細分市場和支出類別的年增率下降了約 1 個百分點。在接下來的幾張投影片中，我們將探討支出趨勢，我將談到已根據閏年和匯率進行調整的已計費業務成長率。

Total Billed Business was up around 7.5% year over year. This growth is around a percentage point higher than what we saw for the full year 2024. Goods and Services spending sustained the uptick we saw in Q4 of last year, continuing to grow at a faster pace than what we saw in 2024. And T&E grew in line with the steady levels we saw for most of last year, reflecting continued strength in restaurant and lodging spending. We did see a deceleration in airline spending relative to 2024 trends, although spending on front of cabin tickets remained strong, up around 11% in the quarter.

總營業額年增約 7.5%。這一成長率比我們預期的 2024 年全年成長率高出約一個百分點。商品和服務支出延續了去年第四季的成長勢頭，並且繼續以比 2024 年預期更快的速度成長。差旅費用成長與去年大部分時間維持的穩定水準一致，反映出餐飲和住宿支出持續強勁。儘管我們看到航空公司支出相對於 2024 年的趨勢有所放緩，但頭等艙機票的支出仍然強勁，本季度增長了約 11%。

As we break down spend trends across our business over the next few slides, there are a few key points I want to highlight. We continued to see solid growth across our affluent US Consumer base, with spend up 8%. Millennial and Gen-Z customers once again drove our highest Billed Business growth within this segment.

在接下來的幾張投影片中，我們將詳細分析公司各部門的支出趨勢，其中有幾個關鍵點我想重點強調。我們在美國富裕消費者群體中持續保持穩健成長，支出成長了 8%。千禧世代和 Z 世代客戶再次推動了我們在該細分市場中最高的營業額成長。

Commercial Services spend was up 3% versus last year, consistent with the trends we saw in 2024. US SME spending at wholesale merchants saw modest acceleration in growth over the quarter, possibly reflecting higher purchases in advance of potential price increases.

商業服務支出比去年增加了 3%，與我們在 2024 年看到的趨勢一致。本季美國中小企業在批發商的支出成長略有加快，這可能反映出企業在價格可能上漲之前加大了採購力度。

International Card Services spend was up 14%. This strong growth was seen across geographies, with each of our top five markets growing by double-digits. And we continue to see strong demand for and engagement with our products.

國際信用卡服務支出增加了 14%。這一強勁成長遍及各個地區，我們排名前五的市場均實現了兩位數的成長。我們持續看到市場對我們產品的強勁需求和參與度。

Turning to lending performance on slide 7, Loans and Card Member Receivables increased 7% year over year on an FX-adjusted basis. Our premium products continue to be the primary driver of that growth, with our Pay-Over-Time and Co-brand portfolios driving around 80% of growth in Card Member Revolving Loans in the first quarter. These products tend to attract high creditworthy customers, supporting our model of growing lending while maintaining best-in-class credit performance.

在第 7 張投影片中，貸款績效顯示，經外匯調整後，貸款和信用卡會員應收款年增 7%。我們的高階產品仍然是這一成長的主要驅動力，其中分期付款和聯名卡產品組合在第一季推動了持卡會員循環貸款成長的約 80%。這些產品往往能吸引信用良好的客戶，並支持我們不斷成長的貸款業務模式，同時維持一流的信貸表現。

Turning to slides 8 and 9, our credit performance continues to be very strong. Both delinquency and write-off rates were below pre-pandemic levels and flat to the prior year.

請看第 8 張和第 9 張投影片，我們的信貸表現依然非常強勁。拖欠率和壞帳率均低於疫情前水平，與上年持平。

The profile of the portfolio has strengthened over the past few years. Looking at our recent acquisitions, the delinquency rate of low-tenure customers, defined as those with 24 months or less of tenure, is about 30% lower than 2019 levels for US Consumer Card Members.

過去幾年，該投資組合的實力得到了提升。從我們最近的收購來看，持卡期限較短的客戶（定義為持卡期限為 24 個月或更短的客戶）的違約率比 2019 年美國消費者信用卡會員的違約率低約 30%。

This quarter, we had about $1.2 billion of provision expense. This includes a small reserve release, mostly reflecting the strong quality of the portfolio and the macroeconomic outlook as of quarter-end.

本季度，我們提列了約12億美元的撥備支出。這包括少量儲備金的釋放，主要反映了截至季度末投資組合的良好品質和宏觀經濟前景。

Turning next to revenue on slide 10. Total revenues were up 8% year over year on an FX-adjusted basis, or 9% excluding leap year. Before we discuss this quarter's trends, I’d remind you that the strengthening of the US dollar that occurred throughout last year continues to be a headwind to reported revenue growth, although a bit less than we anticipated earlier in the quarter.

接下來請看第 10 頁的收入狀況。經匯率調整後，總營收年增 8%；若不計閏年，則較去年同期成長 9%。在討論本季趨勢之前，我想提醒大家，去年美元走強的趨勢仍然對報告的收入成長構成不利影響，儘管比我們本季初的預期要小一些。

Also, starting this quarter, we consolidated processed revenue within service fees and other revenue. Starting with discount revenue, our largest revenue line was up 5% year over year FX-adjusted, and it's mostly driven by the spend trends I discussed earlier.

此外，從本季開始，我們將已處理收入併入服務費和其他收入。先來看折扣收入，我們最大的收入來源經匯率調整後年增 5%，這主要得益於我之前討論過的消費趨勢。

Net card fees were at record levels and increased 20% FX-adjusted, as shown on slide 12, reflecting our 27th consecutive quarter of double-digit card fee growth. And we saw strong demand for our products as we acquired 3.4 million new cards in the quarter.

如投影片 12 所示，淨信用卡手續費達到創紀錄水平，經匯率調整後成長了 20%，這反映了我們連續第 27 個季度信用卡手續費實現兩位數成長。本季我們新增了 340 萬張卡，顯示市場對我們的產品有強勁需求。

The key driver of our strong card fee growth over the past few years has been the acquisition of new Card Members on fee paying products, which accounted for around 70% of new accounts in the quarter. Another important contributor has been our ability to attract customers on higher fee products over time.

過去幾年，我們信用卡手續費收入強勁成長的關鍵驅動因素是新持卡會員透過收費產品獲得收入，佔本季新帳戶的約 70%。另一個重要因素是我們能夠隨著時間的推移，透過提高產品收費標準來吸引客戶。

Over the past three years, the average card fee per new account acquired has increased by around 40%, reflecting strong demand for our premium products and our success in pricing for the increased value we provide customers as we refresh our products.

過去三年，每新增一個帳戶的平均信用卡費用成長了約 40%，這反映出市場對我們高端產品的強勁需求，以及我們在產品更新過程中，透過提高產品價值來提升客戶滿意度並取得的成功。

Turning to slide 13, net interest income increased 11% on an FX adjusted basis, growing slightly faster than loans and receivables as we saw increases in net yield versus last year. Turning now to expense performance on slide 15.

翻到第 13 張投影片，經外匯調整後，淨利息收入成長了 11%，成長略高於貸款和應收款，因為我們看到淨收益率較去年有所提高。現在來看第 15 頁的費用績效。

The VCE to revenue ratio came in at 43% this quarter. Rewards expense grew 16% year over year. As a reminder, this quarter, we are growing over the benefit we saw in Q1 of last year from changes to our URR model.

本季VCE與營收比率為43%。獎勵支出較去年同期成長 16%。再次提醒大家，本季，由於 URR 模型的變化，我們的成長超過了去年第一季所獲得的收益。

In addition, as we mentioned last quarter, some small changes we made to the program that are good for both customers and our overall economics are driving a small increase in the URR in the short-term. Now that we have lapped the impact from the URR model change last year, we expect rewards to grow more in line with the historical trend for the remainder of this year.

此外，正如我們上個季度所提到的，我們對該計劃進行了一些小的調整，這些調整對客戶和我們的整體經濟效益都有好處，這在短期內推動了 URR 的小幅增長。現在我們已經度過了去年 URR 模型變化的影響，我們預計今年剩餘時間的獎勵成長將更符合歷史趨勢。

As you can see, marketing and OpEx continue to be key sources of expense leverage for our business. And our flexible model, there's an important advantage that allows us to dial up or down expenses as needed through different economic environments

如您所見，行銷和營運支出仍然是我們業務支出槓桿的關鍵來源。我們靈活的模式具有一項重要優勢，即使我們能夠根據不同的經濟環境，按需調整支出。

Let me move to capital on slide 16. Our CET1 ratio was 10.7%, within our 10% to 11% target range. We returned $1.3 billion of capital to our shareholders, including $0.6 billion of dividends and $0.7 billion of share repurchases. And this quarter we increased our dividend by 17%. Our differentiated spend and fee-driven business model generates a strong ROE, which was 34% in the quarter, providing us with very strong capital flexibility.

讓我們轉到第 16 頁的資本部分。我們的 CET1 比率為 10.7%，在我們 10% 至 11% 的目標範圍內。我們向股東返還了 13 億美元的資本，其中包括 6 億美元的股息和 7 億美元的股票回購。本季我們將股利提高了17%。我們差異化的支出和費用驅動型商業模式產生了強勁的淨資產收益率，本季達到 34%，為我們提供了非常強大的資本靈活性。

Before we turn to our 2025 guidance, let me talk about the trends we're seeing in recent weeks. As Steve discussed, looking at the first week and a half of April, overall spending trends are consistent with Q1. We are seeing this performance with both T&E and Goods and Services, as well as across our US Consumer, International, and Commercial customer segments.

在我們展望 2025 年之前，讓我先談談我們最近幾週看到的趨勢。正如史蒂夫所討論的，觀察四月的前一周半，整體消費趨勢與第一季一致。我們在差旅及商品服務領域，以及在美國消費者、國際和商業客戶群中都看到了這種業績表現。

Given the environment, we have also seen SME purchases accelerate with wholesale merchants. Additionally, demand for our products is in line with our expectations. This brings me to our 2025 guidance. Given the stability of our performance to date, we are maintaining our guidance of revenue growth of 8% to 10% and earnings per share between $15.00 and $15.50.

鑑於當前環境，我們也看到中小企業透過批發商進行的採購活動有所加速。此外，我們產品的需求與預期相符。這就引出了我們對2025年的展望。鑑於我們迄今為止的業績穩定，我們維持先前對營收成長 8% 至 10% 以及每股收益 15.00 美元至 15.50 美元的預期。

This guidance incorporates a macroeconomic outlook with a peak weighted average unemployment rate of around 5.7%, higher than the outlook as it stood at quarter end. Of course, there are clearly many uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, but given the balance of factors, we believe this guidance is appropriate.

該指導方針納入了宏觀經濟展望，其中加權平均失業率高峰約為 5.7%，高於季末的展望。當然，宏觀經濟環境顯然存在許多不確定因素，但考慮到各種因素的平衡，我們認為這項指導是適當的。

And more importantly, we remain confident and focused on the long-term growth of the company. With that, I will now turn the call back over to Kartik, and we will take your questions.

更重要的是，我們依然對公司的長期發展充滿信心，並專注於此。接下來，我將把電話轉回卡爾蒂克，我們來回答大家的問題。

Thank you, Christophe. Before we open up the lines for Q&A, I will ask those in the queue to please limit yourselves to just one question. Thank you for your cooperation, and with that, the operator will now open up the line for questions. Operator.

謝謝你，克里斯托夫。在正式開始問答環節之前，請排隊的各位每人只提一個問題。感謝您的合作，接下來接線員將開通線路接受提問。操作員。

(Operator Instructions) Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

（操作說明）Sanjay Sakhrani，KBW。

Good morning. So, Steve, we've heard a lot about pull forward of spending. And I'm just curious if you guys have seen any indication that that's sort of propping up spend volumes? And then just sort of along the lines, if we do see some volatility or weakness in spending and revenues, how far do you want to go in terms of sort of protecting earnings? How low does revenues need to go for you to sort of just cut the line in terms of expense reductions? Thanks.

早安.史蒂夫，我們聽說了很多關於提前支出的事情。我只是好奇你們有沒有看到任何跡象表明這在某種程度上支撐了消費量？然後，順便提一下，如果我們看到支出和收入出現一些波動或疲軟，你們希望在保護收益方面做到什麼程度？營收要降到什麼程度，你才會徹底削減開支？謝謝。

So look we really haven't seen any pull forward at all. I think when you look at -- when you look at the entire first quarter, and I think you'd really want to focus in on March and early April, there's really been no pull forward at all.

所以你看，我們根本沒看到任何進展。我認為，當你縱觀整個第一季度，尤其是三月和四月初，你會發現根本沒有任何成長勢頭。

We see a little bit in Small Business, a little bit in wholesale, pull forward, but -- I mean you're talking a couple of points here. You're not talking about anything significant. So, I don't think that’s -- that has been a phenomenon.

我們在小型企業和批發業中看到了一些成長，但——我的意思是，你在這裡談到了幾個要點。你說的根本沒什麼意義。所以，我不認為那是一種現象。

Having said that, it's still early in the game, right? I mean we're early innings here. And we'll just have to see how it all plays out. But just to be clear, from a Consumer perspective, we see no pull forward at all. And people continue to book. And we didn't talk about this in the call, but we had the highest number of travel bookings that we've ever had. And that included -- that includes a high in International as well, international bookings from our Travel Related Services.

話雖如此，現在還為時過早，對吧？我的意思是，現在才剛開始。我們只能拭目以待了。但要明確說明的是，從消費者的角度來看，我們完全看不到任何推動作用。人們仍在繼續預訂。雖然我們在電話會議中沒有談到這一點，但我們獲得了有史以來最高的旅行預訂。其中也包括國際預訂量的成長，即我們旅遊相關服務的國際預訂量成長。

So, I think that we haven't seen a pull forward. We're seeing our customers act as they have acted in the past. And the other two points I'll make, and then I'll get to the revenue one, is that -- one thing that has not been associated with our Card Member spending has either been what's happened with the stock market or what's happened with consumer confidence.

所以，我認為我們還沒有看到任何積極的跡象。我們發現客戶的行為與以往一樣。另外兩點我要提一下，然後再談到收入方面的問題，那就是──有一件事與我們的持卡會員消費無關，那就是股市的走勢或消費者信心的走勢。

Our Card Members may say they don't have any confidence into the economy, but they still continue to spend. And they're not spending off what's in the market. So those two factors, which I get asked a lot about, are not really factors in our customer spending. I think, look, as we've said before, from a guidance perspective, and I said this at conferences, we believe at that 8% range, we can make our EPS number.

我們的持卡會員可能會說他們對經濟沒有信心，但他們仍然繼續消費。而且他們的消費並不包括市場上現有的商品。所以，常常有人問我的這兩個因素，其實不是影響我們客戶支出的因素。我認為，正如我們之前所說，從業績指引的角度來看，我也在會議上說過，我們相信，在 8% 的成長範圍內，我們可以實現我們的每股盈餘目標。

And -- but the other thing that I will say is that I'm not going to pass up good opportunities to invest for the future just to hit a number. I mean, it's not how I've run the company over the last seven years or so. And as I said, even during COVID, we continue to invest when others might have pulled back.

還有一點我要說的是，我不會為了達到某個數字而放棄對未來進行良好投資的機會。我的意思是，這和我過去七年左右的經營方式並不一樣。正如我所說，即使在新冠疫情期間，當其他人可能已經撤資時，我們仍然繼續投資。

And so, I just want to reinforce, we are running this company for the longer term. If I see a good opportunity, I'm going to continue to invest in it. But I do believe where we are right now with the macroeconomic situation the way it is, that we can continue to be within our guidance range on both revenue and EPS. And as we've said in the past, we have the aspirational goal of 10% revenue. However, we also have said that we can make -- we can hit our EPS range if revenue goes lower.

所以，我只想再次強調，我們經營這家公司是為了長遠發展。如果我發現好的機會，我會繼續投資。但我相信，就目前的宏觀經濟情勢而言，我們能夠繼續維持營收和每股盈餘的預期目標。正如我們之前所說，我們的目標是實現 10% 的收入成長。但是，我們也說過，即使收入下降，我們也能達到每股盈餘目標。

Mark DeVries, Deutsche Bank.

馬克‧德弗里斯，德意志銀行。

Yeah, thanks. So, if some of these steeper tariffs go through as initially proposed, Steve, can you just talk about which segments of your business you would expect to be under the most pressure? And is there anything you can do from a risk management perspective to get out in front of that?

嗯，謝謝。所以，如果最初提議的某些更高關稅得以實施，史蒂夫，你能否談談你預計公司哪些部門將面臨最大的壓力？從風險管理的角度來看，有沒有辦法可以提前預防這種情況？

Well, I mean, look, from a risk management perspective, we're constantly, on a daily basis, modifying our inputs and modifying our models and looking on that. So, we always like to think we're way out in front of that anyway.

嗯，我的意思是，從風險管理的角度來看，我們每天都在不斷地修改​​我們的輸入和修改我們的模型，並密切關注這些變化。所以，我們總是喜歡認為自己已經遙遙領先了。

But I think where you would wind up looking is you would look at small businesses first. I think small businesses might be the ones that would be impacted first. And if you think about our consumers, what our consumers tend to do is -- what they would tend to do is they spend a little bit less, revolve a little bit less.

但我認為你最終會首先關注小型企業。我認為小型企業可能會首當其衝受到影響。如果你想想我們的消費者，他們的消費習慣是──他們的消費習慣是──他們會少花一點錢，減少一些消費。

And I'll just take you back to COVID. Remember, we have a really self-liquidating balance sheet, right? And so, our balance sheet is made up a lot of our AR. And as consumers spend a little bit less, that's how they regulate risk.

我這就帶你回到新冠疫情的話題。記住，我們的資產負債表具有很強的自償能力，對吧？因此，我們的資產負債表很大程度上是由應收帳款所構成的。消費者減少支出，就是透過這種方式來規避風險。

And so -- but small businesses, I think small businesses are the ones that we would pay a lot more attention to just because cost may not -- they could be put in a situation and will not be able to compete effectively in the market. So, we'll continue to look at small businesses as this situation evolves. But rest assured, we're looking at this proactively right now, much like we did pre-COVID in terms of looking at people's lines, looking at who we bring into the Franchise.

所以——但是小企業，我認為我們應該更加關注小企業，因為成本可能不會——它們可能會陷入一種境地，無法在市場上有效競爭。因此，我們將繼續關注小型企業的發展。但請放心，我們現在正在積極主動地研究這個問題，就像我們在新冠疫情之前所做的那樣，研究人們的隊伍，研究我們要引進哪些人加入特許經營體系。

And what I would say is that if you look at our card base now versus our card base in 2019, it is more premium than it was at that point with higher FICOs. And the other thing that I'll say, because people will start looking at Millennials and low-tenure Card Members, our Millennial and Gen-Zs are performing significantly better, both from a FICO perspective and from a delinquency perspective than the industry. And secondly, our low-tenure Card Members, their delinquency rates are actually lower than our low-tenure Card Members were back in 2019.

我想說的是，如果你看看我們現在的信用卡用戶群與 2019 年的信用卡用戶群，你會發現現在的用戶群比當時更高端，信用評分也更高。另外，我要說的是，因為人們會開始關注千禧世代和持卡時間較短的信用卡會員，我們的千禧世代和 Z 世代會員的表現明顯優於行業平均水平，無論是從 FICO 信用評分還是違約率來看都是如此。其次，我們持卡期限較短的信用卡會員的違約率實際上低於 2019 年持卡期限較短的信用卡會員的違約率。

Don Fandetti, Wells Fargo.

唐范德蒂，富國銀行。

Good morning, Steve, can you talk a little bit about card refresh and fee growth? I know one of your competitors recently raised fees on co-brand cards. And in this environment, do you still feel like you have the ability to sort of grow fees?

早安，史蒂夫，你能談談信用卡更新和費用增長的問題嗎？我知道你們的一家競爭對手最近提高了聯名卡的費用。在這種環境下，您是否仍覺得自己有能力提高收費？

I think that, look, we're still committed to doing refreshes. We've refreshed over 150 products over the last five years or so. We've got a bunch of refreshes in progress, how many we wind up doing? We'll see how it all plays out. It's more due -- I think, there's a lot of them in progress. The question becomes from a value proposition development, technology development, how they all get through the through the pipeline this year, but we're still committed to doing refresh.

我認為，我們仍然致力於進行更新。在過去五年左右的時間裡，我們已經更新了超過 150 種產品。我們正在進行一系列的更新，最終會完成多少次？我們拭目以待。我覺得，這更像是應該做的——有很多專案正在進行中。問題在於價值主張的發展、技術的開發，以及它們今年如何順利完成，但我們仍然致力於進行更新換代。

As far as – as far as raising fees, we don't raise fees indiscriminately. You raise fees when you add value. And our playbook has been we will raise the fee when we raise value that is even more commensurate than with the fees.

至於提高收費，我們不會隨意提高收費。當你創造價值時，你就可以提高收費。我們的策略是，當我們創造的價值比費用本身更相稱時，我們才會提高費用。

So, as we think about refreshes, what I would tell you is that whatever fee we wind up raising. And look, the reality is we don't do a lot of refreshes without raising the fees. But we also don't do any refreshes without significantly enhancing the value that we put in.

所以，當我們考慮更新時，我想告訴你們的是，無論我們最終收取多少費用。事實上，我們很少會在不提高費用的情況下進行系統更新。但是，如果我們不大幅提升投入的價值，我們也不會進行任何更新。

So, you can rest assured that when someone does a rational calculation of what the fee raise is and what the value is, it becomes an easy decision to continue with the product or even a better decision to get the product at that particular point in time.

所以，您可以放心，當有人理性地計算出費用上漲的幅度以及產品的價值後，繼續使用該產品就很容易做出決定，甚至在那個特定時間點購買該產品也是一個更好的決定。

So, that -- the environment will not impact our fee decisioning with our cards because that fee decision is totally based on value, and our Card Members wind up getting back more than they put in. And one might argue it might even be a better investment at this time than in a good environment.

所以，環境不會影響我們信用卡的收費決策，因為收費決策完全是基於價值，我們的持卡會員最終獲得的收益會超過他們投入的收益。有人甚至認為，在當前情況下，這或許比在市場環境良好時是更好的投資。

Rick Shane, JPMorgan.

Rick Shane，摩根大通。

Thanks for taking my question this morning. Steve, you talk about investing across the cycle basically as a strategic initiative. I'm curious tactically given where we are, where you see opportunities. And I'm curious sort of where you're going to be more aggressive, more -- where you're going to be more defensive.

感謝您今天早上回答我的問題。史蒂夫，你基本上把貫穿整個週期的投資視為策略性舉措。鑑於我們目前的處境，我很好奇您在戰術上看到了哪些機會。我很好奇你會在哪些方面更積極主動，哪些方面更注重防守。

And I did note that the amount of capital you retained from first-quarter profits was the highest it's been since COVID. So, I'm curious how you're looking at capital offensively, defensively as well.

我還注意到，您從第一季利潤中保留的資本金額是自新冠疫情以來最高的。所以，我很想知道你是如何看待進攻和防守中的資本運用的。

Well. So, I'll let Christophe answer the capital question. I mean there's always -- [over the last few years we’ve returned around] (corrected by company after the call) 80% of our earnings to our shareholders. And you'll notice from quarter to quarter, it does swing. And particularly in the first quarter, just go back historically, the first quarter is usually one of our lowest quarters where we do return capital, but the capital that we return, this particular quarter was only about $300 million less than we actually returned in the fourth quarter of last year. So, it wasn't all that much.

出色地。那麼，就讓克里斯托夫來回答這個關鍵問題吧。我的意思是，一直以來——（過去幾年，我們已經恢復到）大約 80% 的收益分配給股東。 （電話會議後公司更正）你會注意到，每個季度之間，它都會有所波動。尤其是在第一季度，回顧歷史，第一季度通常是我們返還資本最少的季度之一，但本季我們返還的資本只比去年第四季實際返還的資本少了約 3 億美元。所以，其實也沒多少。

They're checking the slides to make sure that my comment was correct there. But look, from an investment perspective, you just saw that we just completed the Center acquisition. We believe that that's an important acquisition for us for Small Business and for Middle Market. And that obviously has some capital implications, especially in the second quarter as we closed it.

他們正在查看幻燈片，以確保我的評論是正確的。但是，從投資的角度來看，正如你所看到的，我們剛剛完成了對中心的收購。我們認為，對於我們的小型企業和中端市場而言，這是一項重要的收購。這顯然會對資本產生一些影響，尤其是在我們結束的第二季。

But when you look at our business and specifically in technology, we're constantly upgrading our technology infrastructure. When I talk about technology infrastructure, I'm not only just talking about the hardware aspects of it, but I'm talking about all the systems that run behind it.

但當你審視我們的業務，特別是技術領域時，你會發現我們一直在不斷升級我們的技術基礎設施。當我談到技術基礎設施時，我指的不僅僅是它的硬體方面，而是指它背後運行的所有系統。

And the reality is that some of these projects go for a couple of years and some of them are months and what have you, but you can't stop the upgrading and the investment from a technology infrastructure because you anticipate times may be a little bit tough. It has to continue because we're running this company for the long-term and anybody that's ever been involved in this realized you don't stop and start long-term projects.

而現實情況是，有些專案會持續幾年，有些專案則只有幾個月等等，但你不能因為預計未來一段時間可能會比較艱難就停止對技術基礎設施的升級和投資。必須繼續下去，因為我們經營這家公司是為了長遠發展，任何參與過這項業務的人都知道，你不能停止和啟動長期專案。

The other thing that you don't stop and start, is you don't stop and start your refresh strategy. I mean we have been committed to continually enhancing and developing our products and services over the long-term. And we're on a program that basically says we're going to refresh all of our products, and I'll put all in the quotes, from a three- to four-year cycle.

還有一件事你不能時不時地停下來，那就是你的更新策略。我的意思是，我們一直致力於長期不斷改進和發展我們的產品和服務。我們正在執行一項計劃，該計劃基本上是說，我們將更新我們所有的產品，我把所有產品都用引號括起來，週期為三到四年。

And so, you just can't stop that. If you did, then I think you're doing a disservice to your customers and you're doing a disservice to your shareholders. And this goes back to Sanjay's earlier question about how much potentially would you cut to make EPS guidance.

所以，你根本無法阻止它。如果你這樣做，我認為你既辜負了你的客戶，也辜負了你的股東。這就回到了 Sanjay 之前提出的問題，為了達到每股收益預期，你可能會削減多少成本。

And, my perspective is that, again, we're running it for the longer term. And for me to stop a technology project or for me to stop a refresh or an enhancement because I want to make another $0.20 for the year is foolhearted. And it's not something that you would ever -- you shouldn't ever expect me to do.

而且，我的看法是，我們這樣做是為了長遠發展。如果僅僅因為我想每年多賺 0.20 美元就停止一個技術項目，或者停止一次更新或改進，那真是愚蠢至極。而且你永遠不會——也永遠不該指望我這樣做。

So, we're looking to make sure that this company continues to become stronger day-by-day. And you do that by continuing to invest and continuing to stay true to what your core principles are.

所以，我們希望確保這家公司能夠日益壯大。而做到這一點的方法就是持續投資，並且始終堅守你的核心原則。

So, maybe to add a bit of color on capital, there's not a lot to add as a matter of fact because you covered most of it. But as you know Rick, the governor here is our CET1 ratio. That is what will define the amount of share repo that we're going to do.

所以，關於資本，或許可以補充一些內容，但實際上並沒有太多可補充的，因為你已經涵蓋了大部分內容。但里克，正如你所知，這裡的控制因素是我們的 CET1 比率。這將決定我們將要建立的股票庫的數量。

And we target between 10% and 11%. We're a little bit on the high side at 10.7%, but you shouldn't read anything in that. And if you look at over time, we've been at 10.8%, 10.5%. So, we're ending up a little bit on the high side at the end of the quarter and that's it, right.

我們的目標是10%到11%。我們的比率略高，為 10.7%，但你不應該對此過度解讀。從長遠來看，我們一直維持在 10.8% 或 10.5%。所以，我們本季末的最終結果略微偏高，就是這樣，對吧。

But we distributed exactly the amount that we have in our plans in terms of capital. I will mention though that [in the first quarter] (corrected by company after the call) we increased the dividend by 17%.

但我們按照計劃中的資金數量進行了分配。不過我要提一下，（第一季）我們提高了股利 17%（公司在電話會議後進行了更正）。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

Hi, thank you. I just wanted to confirm the 8% to 10% revenue guide, you said something to the effect of that now takes into account a 5.7% unemployment rate. I just wanted to confirm that you feel like you can generate 8% to 10% revenue growth even in light of an unemployment rate that we haven't seen in a while. And to that end, I think, Steve, you mentioned that the stock market really didn't impact spend.

您好，謝謝。我只是想確認一下 8% 到 10% 的收入指導方針，您之前說過，現在這個指導方針已經考慮到了 5.7% 的失業率。我只是想確認一下，即使在失業率居高不下的情況下，您是否仍然認為可以實現 8% 到 10% 的收入成長。為此，史蒂夫，我認為你提到股市實際上並沒有影響消費。

I'd be curious to understand, since your data is so good, in terms of how spend progressed January through March, particularly in your affluent consumer segment, as you had mentioned in the last call that January is off to a strong start. And then just wondering whether or not the resilience had sort of carried through even though we had all the headline risk and stock market volatility in March.

鑑於你們的數據如此出色，我很想了解一下 1 月至 3 月的支出情況，特別是你們的富裕消費者群體，因為你們在上次電話會議中提到 1 月份開局強勁。然後我就在想，儘管三月我們經歷了各種重大風險和股市波動，但這種韌性是否仍延續了下來。

Yeah. So, I'll give you a little color on the spending here. The reality is January, February, and March pretty much looked exactly the same. 0.2% here, 0.2% there, and in the first 11, 12 days in April are slightly stronger than that. So, it has been consistent. There has been really no movement really up or down.

是的。那麼，我來給你詳細介紹一下這裡的支出狀況。事實上，一月、二月和三月的情況幾乎完全相同。這裡0.2%，那裡0.2%，而四月的前11、12天的增幅略高一些。所以，情況一直都很穩定。實際上並沒有出現明顯的上漲或下跌趨勢。

The only thing I would say is that when you looked at Small Business, you did see a little bit of a tick up as we moved into the end of March, but I'm talking minor, half a point or something like that. And then you saw a little bit of a pickup in the first 11 days. But we'll see how all that plays out.

我唯一想說的是，當你查看小型企業數據時，你會發現隨著三月底的到來，數據確實略有上升，但我說的是小幅上升，大概只有0.5個百分點左右。然後，在前 11 天裡，銷量略有回升。但我們會看看事情最終會如何發展。

And I think April will be an interesting month because you have Easter. And traditionally, you don't have as much Corporate spend, you may not have as much Small Business spend, retail spend, and so forth and so on. So, we'll see how April plays out. And last year, Easter was, I think, at the end of March.

我認為四月會是一個有趣的月份，因為有復活節。傳統上，企業支出不會那麼多，小企業支出、零售支出等等也不會那麼多。所以，我們拭目以待四月的情況如何。去年復活節好像在三月底。

As far as unemployment, look, we have 5.7% incorporated on macro. I think for us, what -- when we look -- when we really look at unemployment, it's really more white-collar unemployment that is more of a driver of potentially spending than it is total overall unemployment because of how our card base tends to skew. So, we'll watch that very carefully, but we feel really comfortable with the unemployment -- even though the unemployment level is -- that we have in our outlook is higher than it's been, we feel comfortable with holding the guide at this particular point in time.

至於失業率，你看，宏觀經濟中已經包含了5.7%的失業率。我認為對我們來說，當我們真正審視失業問題時，會發現真正能推動潛在消費的其實是白領失業，而不是整體失業，因為我們的信用卡用戶群往往有偏差。所以，我們會非常密切地關注這一點，但我們對目前的失業率情況感到非常滿意——儘管我們預測的失業率比以往更高——但我們對目前的失業率預期仍然感到滿意。

So obviously there'll be more to come as the months go by. But right now, from a spend perspective, very consistent. And we feel comfortable with the unemployment level as far as our guidance goes.

顯然，隨著時間的推移，還會有更多類似的事情發生。但就目前的支出情況來看，非常穩定。就我們的預期而言，我們對目前的失業率水準感到滿意。

Let me maybe, Erika give you a bit more color in terms of how to think about that 5.7%. We thought it would be useful to investors, to analysts, to share with you how we've been thinking about the credit reserve. And as you know, we run multiple scenarios. The math is very complicated. It's, you know, lifetime losses.

或許，讓我，艾麗卡，再給你補充一些關於如何看待這 5.7% 的細節。我們認為，與各位投資人和分析師分享我們對信貸儲備的看法，對你們會很有幫助。如您所知，我們會運行多種方案。這套數學理論非常複雜。這是終身損失。

So the 5.7% represents the peak unemployment rate for the purpose of this reserve calculation. So, it doesn't mean that we are anticipating that tomorrow, you know, unemployment will jump to 5.7%, and we'll stay there for the balance of the year, right. You have to think about it in the context of the CECL calculation.

因此，5.7% 代表了本次儲備計算中的最高失業率。所以，這並不意味著我們預計明天失業率就會飆升至 5.7%，並且在今年餘下的時間裡都會保持在這個水平，對吧。你必須結合 CECL 計算來考慮這個問題。

Jeff Adelson, Morgan Stanley.

傑夫·阿德爾森，摩根士丹利。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Steve, I know that Millennial and Gen-Z cohort continues to be a source of strength for Amex. You're calling out the continued 60%-plus of acquisitions, the better FICO and DQs versus the industry, and your spend growth is running higher there.

早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。史蒂夫，我知道千禧世代和 Z 世代一直是美國運通的力量來源。您指出，收購業務持續成長超過 60%，FICO 和 DQ 指標優於產業平均水平，而且您的支出成長率也更高。

But just curious, are you noticing any sort of under the hood issues with that group from things like student loan repayments starting. There's been some reporting of some servicing issues for that group with the repayments starting. I'm just wondering if there's any stats you can give on maybe spend per card or account for that cohort just given that it's represented so much of your account growth so far. Thanks.

但我很好奇，您是否注意到該群組在運行過程中出現任何潛在問題，例如學生貸款償還開始等情況？有報導稱，該集團在還款方面出現了一些服務問題。我想知道您是否可以提供一些關於該用戶群每張卡或每個帳戶的消費統計數據，因為到目前為止，該用戶群的帳戶增長佔了很大一部分。謝謝。

Yeah, we haven't seen anything. And I'll just take you back to -- we'll just throw a couple of statistics out. When you look at spend growth for that cohort for the quarter, it was up about 15% in the US Consumer business. And it's representing about 35% of our overall spend.

是的，我們什麼也沒看到。我這就帶你回到——我們先拋出幾個統計數據。如果看一下該季度該群體的支出成長情況，美國消費者業務的支出成長了約 15%。這約占我們總支出的 35%。

When you look at it internationally, it actually was up 22% in the quarter. So, Millennial and Gen-Z is even a larger contributor internationally. I'll take you back to Investor Day where we talked about how they continue to grow year-to-year. And so, we're still seeing that.

從國際市場來看，該季度實際成長了 22%。因此，千禧世代和Z世代在國際上的貢獻更大。我帶您回顧投資者日，當時我們討論了他們如何持續實現逐年增長。所以，我們仍然看到這種情況。

The thing I will point out is that our Millennial -- not every Millennial and not every Gen-Z have our card. As I think I mentioned a little bit earlier, the delinquency rate that we're seeing is a lot less than what the industry sees. The FICO is a lot higher. And a lot of them tend to be lower tenure as they come into the Franchise, and that delinquency rate is better than it was back pre-COVID.

我要指出的是，我們的千禧世代——並非所有千禧世代和Z世代都擁有我們的會員卡。正如我之前提到的，我們看到的違約率遠低於行業平均。FICO分數高很多。而且許多新加入特許經營體系的人員任期往往較短，違約率也比新冠疫情前有所下降。

So we don't disclose the actual card account Billings on it. And we did disclose it as we did that last -- at the Investor Day. And maybe we'll do that at another point in time. But today, I'm not going to share that because I don't have it at my fingertips either.

因此，我們不會公開實際的信用卡帳戶帳單。我們像上次一樣，在投資者日上披露了此事。或許我們會在其他時候這樣做。但今天，我不會分享這些訊息，因為我手邊也沒有。

So, maybe what I can add to those if you're looking for numbers, the Millennial and Gen-Z combined spend about 20% less than the older generation. So, they do spend a bit less. They revolve a bit less as well. The other data point that we have shared in the past as well, that echoes what Steve just said, is that at acquisition, the average FICO of this cohort is 750. So, very strong. Very strong.

所以，如果你想了解具體數字，我或許可以補充一點：千禧世代和 Z 世代加起來的消費額比老一代少了約 20%。所以，他們的花費確實會少一些。它們的旋轉速度也略有降低。我們過去也分享過的另一個數據點，與史蒂夫剛才所說的話相呼應，是該群體在收購時的平均 FICO 為 750。所以，非常強。非常強壯。

Craig Maurer, FT Partners.

Craig Maurer，FT Partners。

Yeah, thanks. I appreciate you taking the question. I wanted to go back to something you said earlier. Investors are spending time hardening their books for what is expected to be a significant change in the economy over the next sort of 9 to 12 months.

嗯，謝謝。感謝您回答這個問題。我想回到你之前說過的話。投資者們正在加緊準備，以應對未來9到12個月內經濟預計將發生的重大變化。

So, you had mentioned FICO scores, consumer confidence wealth effect, not to channel John Wick, but the bogeyman of the last recession was FICO creep and companies getting caught thinking they were making better loans, plus with consumer confidence falling and the wealth effect, especially how that might impact the younger cohorts.

所以，你提到了 FICO 評分、消費者信心和財富效應，雖然不想模仿約翰·威克，但上次經濟衰退的罪魁禍首是 FICO 評分的不斷攀升，以及公司誤以為自己發放的貸款更好，再加上消費者信心下降和財富效應，尤其是這可能會對年輕一代產生的影響。

Maybe you can talk about what you're basing your view on that consumer confidence and wealth effect won't impact spend. And sorry, not sneak this in, but could you also let us know what percentage of SMB Billed Business is related to e-commerce businesses? Thanks.

或許你可以談談你認為消費者信心和財富效應不會影響消費支出這一觀點的依據是什麼。不好意思，我插一句，您能否也告知我們中小企業帳單業務中與電子商務業務相關的百分比？謝謝。

Yeah. I don't have your -- the sneak in, I can't answer because I don't have that at my fingertips here either. But I guess that will become potentially more important as time goes on. And so, we'll look into that.

是的。我沒有你說的——偷偷溜進來的那個，我無法回答，因為我手邊也沒有相關資訊。但我認為隨著時間的推移，這一點可能會變得更加重要。所以，我們會調查此事。

Craig, as far as what we're basing it on in terms of the wealth effect and consumer confidence: history, the history of our cardholders, I mean it's just -- look, I've been here for 40 years and been through 9/11, Financial Crisis, COVID, and everything else. And the reality is that, that has not been sort of the determining driver from a credit crunch perspective for us.

克雷格，就我們衡量財富效應和消費者信心的依據而言：歷史，我們持卡人的歷史，我的意思是——你看，我在這裡待了 40 年，經歷了 9/11 事件、金融危機、新冠疫情以及其他所有事情。但現實情況是，從信貸緊縮的角度來看，這並不是我們面臨的決定性因素。

And again, look, I think we'll continue to look at FICO scores. And I think there has been -- we've said this, and I think the industry has said this, there has been an acceleration probably in some of the FICO scores. But, it's not the only thing we look at. It's an easy metric to talk about. But certainly, that's not what was in our -- it's not within our models -- the only thing in our models. There's a lot more in our models that go into making credit decisions. But look, we look at, historically, at what our card base has done and what has impacted our card base. And I would say that white collar unemployment from a credit perspective has probably been our John Wick, if you will, more than anything else.

而且，我認為我們還會繼續關注FICO信用評分。我認為——我們已經說過，我認為業內人士也說過——某些 FICO 分數可能出現了加速成長的趨勢。但這並非我們唯一關注的面向。這是一個很容易討論的指標。但可以肯定的是，這並非我們模型中所包含的內容——它不在我們的模型之內——這並非我們模型中唯一的內容。我們的模型中還有很多其他因素會影響信貸決策。但是，我們回顧歷史，看看我們的持卡人群體做了什麼，以及什麼影響了我們的持卡人群體。而且我認為，從信貸角度來看，白領失業問題可能比其他任何事情都更能成為我們電影《疾速追殺》中的約翰威克。

So, I'll add just one thing, Craig. If you put -- if you take a step back away from FICO and you look at, say, delinquency rate, as you would expect, the variability from a credit standpoint is higher with the low tenure Card Members. And therefore, we are looking -- and that's why we -- in my prepared remarks, I shared this new data point for you guys to get an appreciation in terms of how we are thinking about that credit risk.

克雷格，我再補充一點。如果你——如果你拋開 FICO 評分，看看比如說違約率，正如你所預期的那樣，從信用角度來看，持卡期限較短的信用卡會員的波動性更高。因此，我們正在關注——這也是為什麼——在我的發言稿中，我分享了這個新的數據點，以便大家了解我們是如何看待信用風險的。

If you look at the low tenure Card Members, so those who have been with us less than two years, and you look at their delinquency rate today for that -- for those balances versus what it was for this same group of customers back in 2019, the delinquency rate of 30% lower, right. So, that reflects a lot of things, including the skew that we saw in their previous, in the five, six years -- in the previous five, six years in terms of acquiring premium Card Members and managing the book very, very carefully.

如果你看一下持卡時間較短的會員，也就是那些在我們這裡開卡不到兩年的會員，看看他們現在的欠款率——與 2019 年同一組客戶的欠款率相比，欠款率降低了 30%，對吧。所以，這反映出了很多事情，包括我們在他們前五、六年看到的偏差——在前五、六年裡，他們在獲取高級信用卡會員和非常非常謹慎地管理會員方面存在偏差。

So delinquency rate is just -- it's a good metric to look at, and that looks much better than where we were, you know,pre-COVID. And at that time, we were already best in the industry.

所以，違約率就是一個很好的指標，值得關注，而且看起來比新冠疫情之前的情況要好得多。當時，我們已經是業界最好的了。

Cris Kennedy, William Blair.

克里斯甘迺迪，威廉布萊爾。

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Steve, you mentioned the acquisition of Center that comes after a string of other deals, whether it's Kabbage, Nipendo, others. Can you just talk about that journey and kind of give a state of the union on the SME technology investments and then how can that translate into better organic spend over time? Thank you.

早安.感謝您回答這個問題。史蒂夫，你提到了對 Center 的收購，這是在一系列其他交易之後進行的，無論是 Kabbage、Nipendo 還是其他公司。您能否談談這段歷程，簡要介紹一下中小企業在技術投資方面的現狀，以及這些投資如何隨著時間的推移轉化為更好的自然支出？謝謝。

Yeah. I think, look, we've been on a journey here as to build more capabilities up for our SME customers. And if you look at it, one of the things that we've said is we wanted to increase our relevance with our SME customers. And Kabbage has become the platform where we want our SMEs to live. Within that platform, obviously, you have the ability to look at your card information, to do cash flow analysis, to have a checking account, to apply for loans.

是的。我認為，我們一直在努力提升為中小企業客戶的能力。如果你仔細觀察，你會發現我們曾說過，我們希望提高與中小企業客戶的相關性。Kabbage 已成為我們希望中小企業發展的平台。顯然，透過該平台，您可以查看您的銀行卡資訊、進行現金流分析、開設支票帳戶、申請貸款。

When you look at One AP and Nipendo, that's really all about automating the B2B piece of it. And then I think one of the things that was missing for us and we were doing this through partnerships, but it became apparent it needed to be more core to us overall, is the expense management piece.

當你了解 One AP 和 Nipendo 時，你會發現它們實際上都是在實現 B2B 部分的自動化。然後，我認為我們之前缺少的一件事，也是我們透過合作關係來做的，是費用管理，但很明顯，費用管理需要成為我們整體的核心。

We already have the travel piece with our travel service. And so, what we're doing is we're constantly building out the offerings that we have for our small businesses. How that affects organic spend? We'll have to see. But I think what it does, it will certainly help from a retention perspective and an acquisition perspective as well.

我們的旅行服務已經包含了旅行部分。因此，我們正在不斷拓展我們為小型企業提供的服務。這會對自然流量消費產生什麼影響？我們拭目以待。但我認為，無論從客戶留存或客戶獲取的角度來看，它肯定都會有所幫助。

I think from an organic perspective, the more we can utilize One AP and Nipendo, the more we can get B2B -- more B2B payments in there through that channel. But we're on a journey, and now it all needs to continue to be knitted together. Obviously, Center is not integrated into the Kabbage solution, but that's -- to the Kabbage platform. But ultimately, what you will do is you'll have one ecosystem where all of these things live. And I think that will help drive more retention, more acquisition, and potentially more organic spending. I mean organic spending traditionally is more of how they're running their businesses. And we saw pre-COVID or just during COVID how all that organic spend went down, and then we saw post-covid how it went up as they stocked up on inventory. So, we'll have to see how that plays out. But we're excited about Center. And we're excited about the suite of capabilities that we've built out from an SME perspective now.

我認為從實際角度來看，我們越能利用 One AP 和 Nipendo，就越能透過該管道獲得 B2B 支付。但我們正處於一段旅程中，現在所有的一切都需要繼續緊密銜接起來。顯然，Center 沒有整合到 Kabbage 解決方案中，但這對 Kabbage 平台來說就是如此。但最終，你會擁有一個包含所有這些事物的生態系統。我認為這將有助於提高用戶留存率、吸引更多用戶，並有可能促進自然消費。我的意思是，傳統意義上的有機消費更體現了他們的經營方式。我們看到，在新冠疫情之前或疫情期間，所有有機消費都下降了；然後我們看到，在新冠疫情之後，隨著他們囤積庫存，有機消費又上升了。所以，我們得看看事情會如何發展。但我們對中心感到興奮。我們對目前從中小企業角度建立的一系列功能感到非常興奮。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

Terry Ma，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, thank you. Good morning.

您好，謝謝。早安.

Morning.

早晨。

Maybe to just follow up on your comments around refresh strategy, you called out about 35 to 50 planned product refreshes for this year, last quarter. And I get that you want to invest in the long-term, and you don't want to stop the refresh strategy. But just given that there's so much macro uncertainty and maybe potential uncertainty around the ROI of those refreshes, do you kind of adjust or delay some of those until there's more clarity? And what does that mean for your marketing budget for the year? Thank you.

也許是為了跟進您關於產品更新策略的評論，您在上個季度提到今年計劃進行大約 35 到 50 次產品更新。我明白你想進行長期投資，也不想停止更新策略。但鑑於宏觀經濟存在許多不確定性，而且這些更新的投資回報率也可能存在不確定性，您是否會調整或推遲其中一些更新，直到情況更加明朗？那對您今年的行銷預算意味著什麼？謝謝。

Yeah, so at the moment, no changes to the marketing budget at all. I don't think the refresh itself -- when you're looking at the refresh, I think that as I said before, we haven't stopped refreshes in the face of even the pandemic. I mean, we were working through our Platinum refresh at that particular -- and Green at that particular point in time. And also, working on others behind the scenes because as I've said before, refreshes don't happen overnight.

是的，目前行銷預算沒有任何變化。我不認為更新本身有問題——當你審視更新時，我認為正如我之前所說，即使面對疫情，我們也沒有停止更新。我的意思是，當時我們正在進行白金版和綠色版的更新。同時，我也在幕後進行其他方面的工作，因為正如我之前所說，更新換代不是一朝一夕就能完成的。

Years ago we got a lot of credit for reacting to the Chase Sapphire, but it's something that we started 9 to 10 months ago. So no, we're not going to stop the refresh strategy. I don't think that from an ROI perspective, there is -- there would be, as I would say, a reason to do that. As we go to acquire cards, we look at where the credit box is at that particular point in time. So, we'll see, but that's a -- these refreshes happen over a period of time, so it's hard to stop them once they're in progress. And I think we have a lot of confidence, once they’re done, to put them out into the marketplace.

幾年前，我們因對 Chase Sapphire 的反應而備受讚譽，但實際上我們早在 9 到 10 個月前就開始著手這項工作了。所以，我們不會停止更新策略。我不認為從投資報酬率的角度來看，這樣做是有理由的——或者說，沒有理由這樣做。當我們申請信用卡時，我們會查看當時的信用卡餘額狀況。所以，我們拭目以待，但是——這些刷新操作需要一段時間才能完成，所以一旦開始就很難停止。我認為，一旦產品完成，我們非常有信心將它們推向市場。

Gus Gala, MCH.

Gus Gala，MCH。

Good morning, Steve. Good morning, Christophe. I wanted to ask around restaurants. It seems like a lot of the work done there has been key in winning Gen-Z, Millennial share versus other premium value props available in North America. How do you think about enhancing the value proposition there? And similar vein, can you talk about other categories or maybe your experiential differentiation where you're not really competing on the rewards, but more like the services to further help capture that Gen-Z, millennial base.

早安，史蒂夫。早上好，克里斯托夫。我想問各家餐廳的情況。看來，在那裡所做的許多工作對於贏得 Z 世代和千禧世代的市場份額，而不是在北美提供的其他高端價值主張中佔據一席之地，是關鍵所在。您認為應該如何提升這方面的價值主張？同樣地，您能否談談其他類別，或者談談您的體驗差異化優勢，您並非真正依靠獎勵來競爭，而是更多地依靠服務來進一步吸引 Z 世代和千禧一代的客戶群？

Well, Millennials and Gen-Z are spending way more in restaurants from a transaction perspective than any other cohort that we have. And if you refresh strategy, look at what we did with Gold. I mean Gold could have been renamed the restaurant card between the rewards accelerator, the Resy credit, and the Global Dining Collection.

從交易額來看，千禧世代和 Z 世代在餐廳的消費遠高於其他任何世代。如果要調整策略，可以看看我們是如何利用黃金的。我的意思是，Gold卡可以改名為餐飲卡，介於獎勵加速器、Resy積分和全球餐飲精選之間。

I think, look, you go back to the acquisition of Resy, you go back to the acquisition of Tock, you look at Rooam, all three of those things are really targeted at sort of trying to build a moat around the restaurant industry, not only from a Card Member perspective but also from a restaurant perspective.

我認為，回顧 Resy 的收購，回顧 Tock 的收購，再看看 Rooam，這三件事實際上都是為了在餐飲業周圍構築護城河，不僅從會員卡會員的角度來看，也從餐廳的角度來看。

I mean it is -- it is a microcosm of our closed loop, right. When you think about what we've done with Resy and Tock, and as we integrate the Rooam capabilities in, it's a closed loop within a closed loop. And I think that's something that's really appealing to our restaurant customers, and it's also appealing to our Card Members and especially Millennials and Gen-Z.

我的意思是，它確實是——它是我們閉環系統的縮影，對吧。當你想到我們用 Resy 和 Tock 所做的一切，以及我們將 Rooam 的功能整合進去，你會發現這是一個閉環中的閉環。我認為這對我們的餐廳顧客來說非常有吸引力，對我們的會員卡會員，尤其是千禧世代和 Z 世代來說也很有吸引力。

Look, we'll look for other verticals where that makes sense. Look, one would argue that the other verticals where it does make sense with our travel business is also with lodging and with airline, right. I mean if you think about it, look at the Platinum card and being able to book through Platinum Travel Services, it's another example of a closed loop within.

我們會尋找其他合適的垂直領域。你看，有人可能會說，我們旅遊業務的其他一些垂直領域，例如住宿和航空，也同樣有意義，對吧。我的意思是，如果你仔細想想，看看白金卡以及透過白金旅行服務預訂的功能，這又是內部閉環的另一個例子。

And when you look at the Platinum card value proposition with Fine Hotels and Resorts, it is really a way to provide value, especially to our younger customers. I mean, when you book a Fine Hotel and Resort, the value proposition here is pretty good, right. I mean it's early check-in, late checkout, upgrades, free breakfast, $100 credit.

當你了解 Fine Hotels and Resorts 的白金卡價值主張時，你會發現它確實是一種提供價值的方式，尤其對我們年輕的客戶而言更是如此。我的意思是，當你預訂一家高級飯店和度假村時，它的性價比就相當不錯，對吧。我的意思是，可以提前入住、延遲退房、房間升級、免費早餐，還有 100 美元的消費額度。

So, that's another example of where we're connecting our Card Members with our partners from a hotel perspective, and obviously, we've been doing that with airlines for years. So, I think when you think about Millennials and Gen-Z, I think leaning in, in those areas for them are pretty critical.

所以，這是我們從酒店角度將我們的持卡會員與我們的合作夥伴聯繫起來的另一個例子，顯然，我們多年來一直在與航空公司這樣做。所以，我認為，當你想到千禧世代和 Z 世代時，我認為在這些領域對他們來說至關重要。

And the Gold card relaunch is a really good example. And our partnership with Dunkin' was a really good example of really leaning into the transaction affection that they have for dining and for all things in our dining.

金卡重新推出就是一個很好的例子。我們與 Dunkin' 的合作就是一個很好的例子，充分體現了他們對餐飲以及餐飲相關一切事物的熱愛。

Rob Wildhack, Autonomous Research.

Rob Wildhack，自主研究。

Morning guys. I wanted to follow up a little bit more on the SMB technology side with Kabbage, Center, etc. Steve, I think you mentioned eventually having one ecosystem. Could you speak to the integration effort there, how all these platforms come together, how that looks for the end customer today? And then when do you expect you could go to market with the full expanded product suite inclusive of Center? Thanks.

早上好，各位。我想就中小企業技術方面，例如 Kabbage、Center 等，再深入探討。史蒂夫，我想你之前提到最終要建立一個統一的生態系統。您能否談談這方面的整合工作，所有這些平台是如何整合在一起的，以及最終用戶如今的體驗如何？那麼，您預計何時能夠將包含 Center 在內的完整擴充產品套件推向市場？謝謝。

Well, we just closed on Center yesterday. So that's -- it will happen over time here. But if you look at -- if you're an SME customer, you go onto the Kabbage platform, you can reach MYCA, which is -- if you're a cardholder and a lot of our cardholders just do business right now with us through the app anyway, but pre-app, it was through My Card Account. And so, as you go through Kabbage, you can access My Card Account, you can apply for the loan, you can access your transaction checking accounts. So, that's pretty much there at this point.

我們昨天才剛完成Center的交易。所以，隨著時間的推移，這種情況會在這裡發生。但是，如果你是中小企業客戶，你登入 Kabbage 平台，就可以訪問 MYCA，也就是——如果你是持卡人，我們很多持卡人現在都透過應用程式與我們進行業務往來，但在應用程式推出之前，都是透過「我的卡帳戶」進行的。因此，當您使用 Kabbage 時，您可以訪問我的卡帳戶，您可以申請貸款，您可以訪問您的交易支票帳戶。所以，目前的情況差不多就是這樣了。

But the next step is to really then, as we integrate Center on in, is to link that right in. I don't have an exact time on that. As a bank holding company, there are certain hardening that we need to do, let's say that, around the Center product, and so we're going to do that. But part of all of that will be integrating it on into that platform. But again, just to remind everybody, we closed on it yesterday.

但下一步，當我們把 Center 整合進來時，真正的關鍵在於將它直接連接起來。我沒有確切的時間。作為一家銀行控股公司，我們需要對核心產品進行一些必要的強化，所以我們會這樣做。但這一切的一部分，都包括將其整合到該平台上。但再次提醒大家，我們昨天已經完成交易了。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my question. Steve and Christophe, you're now striking a pretty confident tone on the call today about the outlook in a variety of macroenvironments. I think you've also talked before about being more confident in achieving the mid-teens EPS versus maybe some noise in year over year revenue.

您好，早安，感謝您回答我的問題。史蒂夫和克里斯托夫，你們今天在電話會議上對各種宏觀環境的前景都表現出了相當自信的態度。我認為你之前也說過，比起同比營收可能出現的一些波動，你更有信心實現十幾個百分點的每股盈餘。

So I just wanted to go back to where we started the Q&A, where Sanjay started the Q&A. Can you just talk a little bit more about the cost structure and the potential for cost optimization if things get choppy? Like I understand there's rewards costs and things like that that naturally get lower, but big picture, just talk a little bit about the expense flex in the model as you continue to invest. Thanks.

所以我想回到我們開始問答的地方，也就是 Sanjay 開始問答的地方。能否再詳細談談成本結構，以及如果情況變得不穩定，成本優化的可能性？我知道會有回報成本之類的東西，這些成本自然會降低，但從整體上看，隨著你繼續投資，請稍微談談模型中的支出彈性。謝謝。

Yeah, I mean, here's what you can expect. I mean, obviously you've got the story as it relates to rewards and as it relates to sort of cost of Card Member services as spending goes down, those go down. From a technology perspective, we're not going to veer off our technology plan. I mean, it just doesn't make any sense to stop and start from a technology perspective.

是的，我的意思是，你可以期待以下幾點。我的意思是，很明顯，獎勵和持卡會員服務的成本都會隨著消費的減少而降低。從技術角度來看，我們不會偏離我們的技術計劃。我的意思是，從技術角度來看，停下來再啟動是沒有任何意義的。

Our marketing budget is a lot bigger than it ever has been. And in an environment of uncertainty, you would raise the thresholds, you may not have as much line of sight into the credit box as you'd like to have. And so, there's a tremendous amount of expense flexibility within that line. And there's expense flexibility within our OpEx line as well.

我們的行銷預算比以往任何時候都要大得多。在不確定的環境下，如果你提高門檻，你可能無法像你希望的那樣清楚地了解你的信用狀況。因此，該系列產品在費用方面具有很大的靈活性。而且我們的營運支出項目也有一定的費用彈性。

But what we will not do, as I said earlier, and I started this way, we're not going to just cut expenses to make the EPS number if we see good opportunities for growth. And one of the things that we did during COVID was we really ratcheted back on acquisition tremendously because we didn't have a good line of sight into creditworthy cardholders.

但是，正如我之前所說，我們不會為了達到每股盈餘目標而削減開支，如果我們看到良好的成長機會的話。在新冠疫情期間，我們採取的措施之一就是大幅縮減了客戶獲取規模，因為我們無法準確了解哪些持卡人信用良好。

But what we did do is we pivoted a large percentage of that money and added incremental value to our value propositions at that particular point in time, which the end result of that was two-fold. Number one, it led to higher retention for us, and it led to more stickiness in terms of where we actually made those value proposition investments.

但我們確實將其中很大一部分資金進行了調整，並在當時為我們的價值主張增加了增量價值，最終結果是雙重的。首先，它提高了我們的客戶留存率，並且提高了我們實際進行價值主張投資的客戶黏著度。

And so, we'll play the whole thing out. But again, quarter-to-quarter, year-to-year, it's about really investing for the long-term here and making the right longer-term decisions. But there is flex in the model as it relates to marketing and as it relates to OpEx.

所以，我們會把整個過程演完。但話說回來，從季度到季度、從年度到年度來看，關鍵在於真正進行長期投資，並做出正確的長期決策。但該模型在行銷和營運支出方面具有一定的靈活性。

With that, we will bring the call to an end. Thank you again for joining today's call and for your continued interest in American Express. The IR team will be available for any follow-up questions. Operator, back to you.

通話到此結束。再次感謝您參加今天的電話會議，也感謝您一直以來對美國運通的關注。投資者關係團隊將隨時解答任何後續問題。接線員，已接通。

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast replay will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.americanexpress.com shortly after the call. You can also access a digital replay of the call at 877-660-6853 or 201-612-7415. Access code 13752401 after 1:00 PM Eastern Time on April 17 through April 24. That will conclude our conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，電話會議結束後不久，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上觀看網路直播回放。您也可以撥打 877-660-6853 或 201-612-7415 收聽電話會議的數位回放。4 月 17 日至 4 月 24 日美國東部時間下午 1 點後，訪問代碼為 13752401。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。