Air Products and Chemicals Inc (APD) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

發言人討論了財務措施和調整,並將電話轉給了空氣產品公司的執行長愛德華多·梅內塞斯 (Eduardo Menezes)。梅內塞斯概述了公司透過營運改善和嚴格的資本配置來關注獲利能力和成長。該公司面臨專案表現不佳和成本超支的挑戰,但仍致力於透明度和股東溝通。

他們提供有關中國、路易斯安那州和阿爾伯塔省的財務業績、指導和項目的最新資訊。該公司的目標是實現正現金流、股票回購以及工業氣體業務的成長。他們強調合作關係、降低成本和提高利潤率對於未來成功的重要性。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Eric Guter - Investor Relations

    Eric Guter - Investor Relations

  • (audio in progress) operating margin, EBITDA, the effective tax rate, and ROCE either on a total company or segment basis. Unless we specifically state otherwise, statements regarding these measures refer to our adjusted non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation of these measures to our most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found on our investor website in the relevant Earnings Release section. Now, I'll turn the call over to Eduardo.

    (音訊播放中)營業利潤率、EBITDA、有效稅率和 ROCE(以整個公司或部門為基礎)。除非我們另有明確說明,有關這些指標的聲明均指我們調整後的非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在投資者網站的相關收益報告部分找到這些指標與我們最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表。現在,我將把電話轉給愛德華多。

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Eric. Good morning. This is Eduardo Menezes. Thank you for joining us today. Please turn to slide 3. Let me begin by sharing a few thoughts from my first three months as Air Products' CEO. I talked with our employees, visited several sites, and met with many of our largest customers and partners. I can say Air Products is a solid for industrial gas business with significant upside, if we stay within our traditional business model.

    謝謝你,埃里克。早安.這是愛德華多·梅內塞斯。感謝您今天加入我們。請翻到幻燈片 3。首先,我想分享一下我擔任空氣產品公司執行長前三個月的一些想法。我與我們的員工進行了交談,參觀了幾個站點,並會見了我們的許多最大客戶和合作夥伴。我可以說,如果我們堅持傳統的商業模式,空氣產品公司對於工業氣體業務來說是一個穩固的行業,並且具有巨大的上升空間。

  • Decades ago, Air Products pioneered the on-site business market. Today, approximately 50% of the company's sales are on-site with long-term takeoff pay complex, the highest percentage in the industry. Air Products has also built density in its merchant business, helping customers be more efficient and sustainable. We became the leading supplier of hydrogen, operating hydrogen pipeline networks around the world, including the world's largest at the U.S. Gulf Coast. We have also became a leading supplier of high (inaudible) gasses for the electronics industry. These are clearly (inaudible) to be build upon.

    幾十年前,空氣產品公司率先開拓了現場業務市場。如今,該公司約有 50% 的銷售額來自現場銷售,並採用長期起飛薪資制度,這一比例在業界最高。空氣產品公司也提高了其商用業務的密度,幫助客戶提高效率和永續性。我們成為領先的氫氣供應商,經營遍布全球的氫氣管道網絡,其中包括位於美國墨西哥灣沿岸的世界上最大的氫氣管道網絡。我們也已成為電子業高(聽不清楚)氣體的領導供應商。這些顯然(聽不清楚)是可以作為基礎的。

  • However, over the past few years, Air Products moved away from its core business in search of growth. The company pivot to investments in coal gasification and then in clean energy. It deployed capital to complex higher-risk projects with first-of-a-kind technologies and more importantly, without committed offtake agreements in place.

    然而,過去幾年來,空氣產品公司為了尋求成長而逐漸放棄了其核心業務。該公司將重點投資於煤炭氣化,然後是清潔能源。它將資金投入採用首創技術的複雜高風險項目中,更重要的是,沒有簽訂承諾的承購協議。

  • In doing so, Air Products moved away from its successful model while significantly increasing its financial leverage and headcount to support these projects. The company grew by almost 7,000 employees since 2018 to execute the capital plan. This had a negative impact on both cost and the execution quality, leading to significant project delays.

    在此過程中,空氣產品公司放棄了其成功的模式,同時大幅增加了其財務槓桿和員工人數以支持這些項目。為了執行資本計劃,該公司自 2018 年以來增加了近 7,000 名員工。這對成本和執行品質都產生了負面影響,導致專案嚴重延誤。

  • All of this leads to the importance of refocusing our products on its core business and core capabilities.

    所有這些都表明,重新聚焦於我們的產品的核心業務和核心能力至關重要。

  • Please turn to slide 4 and let me talk about where the business stands today. You can think about Air Products' business in three categories. First, we have the strong core industrial gas business. This includes the on-site projects with take-or-pay agreement, a regional merchant business, and a portfolio of high-quality minority-owned joint ventures. The business has about $12 billion in sales and operating margin of 24%. I'm confident we can improve margins and unlock significant value through disciplined cost productivity, pricing, and operational excellence. This is the largest opportunity we have considering the $35 billion in capital we have invested in the base business. In summary, Air Products can grow strongly and profitably in traditional industrial gas. And the yes, we can also participate in clean energy opportunities as long as they align with the traditional industrial gasses model where customers take the volume.

    請翻到投影片 4,讓我談談目前的業務狀況。您可以將空氣產品公司的業務分為三類。首先,我們擁有強大的核心工業氣體業務。其中包括簽訂照付不議協議的現場項目、區域商業業務以及一系列高品質的少數族裔合資企業。該業務的銷售額約為 120 億美元,營業利潤率為 24%。我相信,透過嚴格的成本生產力、定價和卓越運營,我們可以提高利潤率並釋放巨大的價值。考慮到我們在基礎業務上投資的 350 億美元資本,這是我們面臨的最大機會。總而言之,空氣產品公司可以在傳統工業氣體領域實現強勁成長和獲利。是的,只要清潔能源機會與客戶按需供應的傳統工業氣體模式一致,我們也可以參與其中。

  • Secondly, we have the two large projects in Saudi Arabia and Louisiana. We believe these products are set up to be the lowest cost producer of green and blue ammonia for several decades. To be clear, Air Products is an industrial gasses company and does not intend to be a retail marketer of ammonia. As a progress report, I can say that the solid green project is progressing well. Our 4-gigawatt solar and wind power generation will be concluded by mid-2026. And we will start commissioning the electrolyzers and ammonia production after that. As you were informed before, we successfully limited our stand on this project through partnership and project finances. We expect product availability in 2027.

    其次,我們在沙烏地阿拉伯和路易斯安那州有兩個大型計畫。我們相信這些產品將成為未來幾十年成本最低的綠色和藍色氨生產商。需要明確的是,空氣產品公司是一家工業氣體公司,並不打算成為氨的零售行銷商。作為進度報告,我可以說固體綠色專案進展順利。我們的4千兆瓦太陽能和風能發電將於2026年中期完成。之後我們將開始調試電解器和氨生產。正如您之前所知,我們透過合作夥伴關係和專案融資成功地限制了我們對該專案的立場。我們預計產品將於 2027 年上市。

  • Regarding the Louisiana project, we're actively working to de-risk it by focusing on the industrial gasses portion of the project. We announced ongoing discussions to divest the carbon sequestration and the ammonia production elements of this project. The earliest startup of this facility is 2028 or 2029, pending the de-risking strategy. To make it clear, Air Products will only move forward with this project when we have firm offtake agreements for hydrogen and nitrogen.

    關於路易斯安那州項目,我們正在積極努力透過關注該項目的工業氣體部分來降低風險。我們宣布正在進行討論,以剝離該項目的碳封存和氨生產部分。該設施最早將於 2028 年或 2029 年啟動,具體取決於去風險化策略。需要明確的是,只有當我們簽訂了氫氣和氮氣的固定承購協議時,空氣產品公司才會推進該專案。

  • Third, we also have the underperforming projects with CapEx totaling about $5 billion. These are first-of-a- kind energy transition projects with substantial cost overruns. In some instances, these underperforming projects were designed to produce additional volumes for non-contracted pipeline sales and for the hydrogen mobility market, which is being delayed or reduced. I will provide additional comments on these underperforming projects in a few minutes.

    第三,我們還有一些表現不佳的項目,總資本支出約 50 億美元。這些都是首創的能源轉型項目,成本嚴重超支。在某些情況下,這些表現不佳的項目旨在為非合約管道銷售和氫氣移動市場提供額外的產量,但這些市場正在被推遲或減少。我將在幾分鐘內對這些表現不佳的項目提供補充評論。

  • Please turn to slide 5. Air Products will get back to basics. First, we will return to excellence in execution in our core business. We can invest about $1.5 billion per year in four industrial gas projects going forward. Our focus will be on opportunities that meet our high return thresholds with high-quality customers and contracted they take-or-pay offtake. And we'll work to expand our margins through operational excellence, productivity, and by right-sizing the organization as we return to a normal level of CapEx spending.

    請翻到投影片 5。空氣產品公司將回歸本源。首先,我們將重拾核心業務的卓越執行力。未來我們可以每年在四個工業天然氣項目上投資約15億美元。我們的重點將放在那些符合我們高回報門檻、擁有高品質客戶並簽訂照付不議合約的機會。隨著資本支出恢復正常水平,我們將努力透過卓越營運、生產力和合理調整組織規模來擴大利潤率。

  • Focus on the second part of this slide, we remain cautiously optimistic about both the green hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia and the blue hydrogen facility in Louisiana.

    關注這張投影片的第二部分,我們對沙烏地阿拉伯的綠氫計畫和路易斯安那州的藍色氫設施都持謹慎樂觀的態度。

  • In Saudi Arabia, in the near term, we'll focus on completing construction and selling clean ammonia FOB Saudi Arabia until hydrogen regulations fully develop. And we will delay investment in downstream facilities in Europe until specific regulatory frameworks are clear for each country, and we have firm customer commitments. As you all know, the previously announced agreement for green hydrogen supply in Europe is scheduled to start in 2030. We expect clarity regarding the development of this project no later than 2027.

    在沙烏地阿拉伯,短期內我們將專注於完成建設和銷售清潔氨 FOB 沙烏地阿拉伯,直到氫氣法規全面製定。我們將推遲對歐洲下游設施的投資,直到每個國家的具體監管框架明確,並且我們對客戶做出堅定的承諾。眾所周知,先前宣布的歐洲綠色氫氣供應協議計畫於2030年啟動。我們預計該專案的進展最遲會在 2027 年明確。

  • For Louisiana, we plan to concentrate on the hydrogen and nitrogen production and continue discussions to de-risk the carbon sequestration ammonia production activities. There will be no new spending commitments on this project while we pursue the de-risking strategy.

    對於路易斯安那州,我們計劃專注於氫氣和氮氣的生產,並繼續討論降低碳封存氨生產活動的風險。在我們推行去風險策略期間,不會對該專案做出新的支出承諾。

  • Lastly, we're moving forward with the underperforming projects, giving our commercial obligations and project status though they are not expected to materially contribute to operating (inaudible). We anticipate these projects will provide positive cash flow which will allow us to recover on an undiscounted basis our cash investment over the life of the projects. We have roughly $2 billion remaining to be spent on these projects from 2026 through 2028. Our goal would be to maximize profitability for commercial negotiations, operational improvements, and productivity.

    最後,我們將繼續推進表現不佳的項目,並履行我們的商業義務和項目地位,儘管這些項目預計不會對營運產生實質貢獻。(聽不清楚)。我們預計這些項目將提供正現金流,這將使我們能夠在專案生命週期內以未折現的方式收回我們的現金投資。從 2026 年到 2028 年,我們大約還有 20 億美元可用於這些專案。我們的目標是最大限度地提高商業談判的獲利能力、營運改善和生產力。

  • Turning to slide 6. We have begun the process of getting back to basics. We canceled three significant U.S. projects in February, and we are taking a more prudent approach to the Louisiana project. Additionally, we are also working to address the underperforming projects which do not currently meet our expectations. For the previously announced net zero hydrogen project in Edmonton, total cost is now expected to be $3.3 billion with on-stream between late 2027 and early 2028.

    翻到幻燈片 6。我們已經開始回歸本源的過程。我們在二月取消了三個重要的美國項目,並且對路易斯安那州的項目採取了更加謹慎的態度。此外,我們也正在努力解決目前未達到我們預期的表現不佳的項目。對於先前宣布的埃德蒙頓淨零氫能項目,預計總成本為 33 億美元,將於 2027 年底至 2028 年初投入使用。

  • On the next two slides, I will detail how we will bring down both our capital expenditure in headcount in the coming years. On slide 7, you can see that once we complete the projects in Saudi Arabia and Louisiana, as well as the underperforming projects, our capital expenditure will level at roughly $2.5 billion per year, which can sustain both our future growth and ongoing maintenance.

    在接下來的兩張投影片中,我將詳細說明我們將如何在未來幾年降低員工人數的資本支出。在第 7 張投影片上,您可以看到,一旦我們完成沙烏地阿拉伯和路易斯安那州的項目以及表現不佳的項目,我們的資本支出將穩定在每年約 25 億美元,這可以維持我們未來的成長和持續的維護。

  • Now please turn to slide 8. Part of our productivity improvement will come from right-sizing our headcount to the levels we had before we started the large wave of projects discussed in this presentation. Air Products' total headcount increased from approximately 16,000 to 23,000 employees since 2018. 1,300 reductions have already been identified in that process. This is in addition to the approximately 500 related to the LNG divestiture. We intend to identify another 2,500 to 3,000 positions which will be eliminated between 2026 and 2028 as we finalize the large projects, with the objective of reaching an employment level similar to 2018, adjusted for employee growth to support new assets.

    現在請翻到第 8 張投影片。我們的生產力提高將部分來自於將我們的員工人數調整到我們在開始本次演示中討論的大量項目之前的水平。自 2018 年以來,空氣產品公司的員工總數從約 16,000 人增加到 23,000 人。在此過程中,已確定裁員 1,300 人。這是與液化天然氣剝離相關的約 500 筆款項之外的款項。隨著大型專案的最終完成,我們打算在 2026 年至 2028 年期間再裁減 2,500 至 3,000 個職位,目標是達到與 2018 年類似的就業水平,並根據員工成長情況進行調整,以支持新資產。

  • Let's turn to slide 9 and talk about our road map for improvement in the coming years. For 2025, we expect our base business to deliver around $12 per share of EPS, double-digit ROCE, and over 20% adjusted operating margin. We strongly believe we can do better, so we will look to maximize profitability from the base business to drive results in the coming years. We will manage our cash flow to allow dividend increases, new projects, and in time, reduce our debt and buy back shares.

    讓我們翻到第 9 張投影片,討論一下未來幾年改進的路線圖。到 2025 年,我們預計我們的基礎業務將實現每股收益約 12 美元、兩位數的 ROCE 和超過 20% 的調整後營業利潤率。我們堅信我們可以做得更好,因此我們將尋求最大限度地提高基礎業務的盈利能力,以推動未來幾年的業績。我們將管理現金流,以增加股利、開展新項目,並及時減少債務和回購股票。

  • As we improve our operating margins for productivity and address challenges in certain projects, we expect these key operating measures to improve. Despite the burden of the underperforming projects, we anticipate that during the 2026 to 2029 period, we can achieve high single-digit adjusted EPS growth, adjusted operating margin in the high 20s, and adjusted ROCE in the low to mid-teens. We also expect our aggregate net cash flow to be improved to neutral during this period.

    隨著我們提高生產力的營業利潤率並解決某些專案中的挑戰,我們預計這些關鍵營運指標將會改善。儘管面臨表現不佳項目的負擔,我們預計在 2026 年至 2029 年期間,我們可以實現高個位數調整後每股收益增長、20 多歲的調整後營業利潤率和低至十幾歲的調整後 ROCE。我們也預計,在此期間我們的總淨現金流將改善至中性。

  • As you can see in the far right column, once the Saudi Arabia and Louisiana projects begin contributing, we expect to unlock significant potential, achieving roughly 30% adjusted operating margin, mid to high teens adjusted ROCE, and double-digit adjusted EPS growth by 2030 and beyond. Our objective is that at full contribution, these projects will allow us to achieve greater than 10% compounded EPS growth versus 2025 by 2031 or 2032.

    正如您在最右側欄中看到的,一旦沙烏地阿拉伯和路易斯安那州的專案開始做出貢獻,我們預計將釋放巨大的潛力,到 2030 年及以後實現約 30% 的調整後營業利潤率、中高十幾歲的調整後 ROCE 和兩位數的調整後 EPS 增長。我們的目標是,在全部投入的情況下,這些項目將使我們在 2031 年或 2032 年實現比 2025 年高出 10% 的複合每股收益成長。

  • The Air Products team recognizes the importance of transparent communications with investors. Going forward, we will, A, focus 100% on our core industrial gas business; B, be disciplined with capital; and C, build a culture that prioritizes productivity and continuous improvement.

    空氣產品公司團隊體認到與投資人進行透明溝通的重要性。展望未來,我們將:A、100%專注於我們的核心工業氣體業務; B、用資本來約束自己;C、建立優先考慮生產力和持續改進的文化。

  • Finally, I would like to express my gratitude to Air Products employees for the way they received me during the last three months and for their support to refocus the company now on traditional business model despite difficult changes we'll need to go through.

    最後,我要向空氣產品公司的員工表示感謝,感謝他們在過去三個月裡對我的接待,以及他們的支持,使公司重新回到傳統的商業模式,儘管我們需要經歷艱難的變革。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Melissa to go through our financial results. Melissa?

    現在我將把時間交給梅麗莎來介紹我們的財務結果。梅麗莎?

  • Melissa Schaeffer - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Melissa Schaeffer - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you, Eduardo. And good morning, everyone. As a reminder, on this call, we will be speaking about our adjusted non-GAAP financial measures. Before we do, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the $2.3 billion after-tax charge taken in the second quarter. This charge included the project cancellation we previously announced, cost reduction measures, and executive separation costs.

    謝謝你,愛德華多。大家早安。提醒一下,在本次電話會議上,我們將討論調整後的非公認會計準則財務指標。在此之前,我想花點時間確認一下第二季的 23 億美元稅後費用。這筆費用包括我們先前宣布的項目取消、成本削減措施和高階主管離職費用。

  • We will now turn to slide 11 to review our financial results. Our second quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.69 are below our previous guidance of $2.75 to $2.85, primarily due to changes in cost estimates on a sale of equipment project in the U.S. and lower than forecasted helium contributions. Compared to last year, sales volume was down 3%, with 2% driven by the LNG business divestment; while weaker merchant, primarily helium, was largely offset by favorable on-site volumes across the region.

    我們現在翻到第 11 張投影片來回顧我們的財務結果。我們第二季調整後的每股盈餘為 2.69 美元,低於我們先前預期的 2.75 美元至 2.85 美元,主要原因是美國設備銷售項目的成本估算發生變化,以及氦氣貢獻低於預測。與去年相比,銷售量下降3%,其中2%是由於液化天然氣業務剝離所致;而商業氣體(主要是氦氣)的疲軟在很大程度上被該地區良好的現場交易量所抵消。

  • Total company price was up 1%, which equates to a 3% improvement for the merchant business driven by continued non-helium pricing strength in the Americas and Europe. Adjusted operating income decreased 9%, mainly due to the LNG divestiture and unfavorable helium impact. Additionally, we saw higher costs driven by Americas maintenance and fixed cost inflation, which was partially offset by strong productivity actions across the company. Operating margin was down 210 basis points, with approximately 100 basis points driven by higher energy pass-through.

    該公司總價格上漲了 1%,相當於商用業務成長了 3%,這得益於美洲和歐洲非氦氣價格的持續走強。調整後營業收入下降 9%,主要由於液化天然氣剝離和氦氣的不利影響。此外,我們也看到美洲維護和固定成本通膨導致成本上升,但整個公司強而有力的生產力行動部分抵消了這個成本上升。營業利潤率下降了 210 個基點,其中約 100 個基點是由於能源轉嫁增加所致。

  • Now please turn to slide 12 for the details of the second quarter earnings per share. Second quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.69 decreased $0.16 from prior year. The divestment of the LNG business accounted for $0.12 of headwind and currency was unbearable $0.04. Our base, which includes volume, price, and cost, was down $0.07. Other than LNG, volume was relatively flat as the lower helium was largely offset by favorable on-site volume. Price was positive $0.04, driven by improvements in the Americas and Europe. Costs were $0.11 unfavorable, primarily due to fixed cost inflation and higher maintenance in Americas, partially offset by favorable cost productivity across the company. Equity affiliate income was better in Europe, but partially offset by lower contribution in Americas.

    現在請翻到第 12 張投影片,查看第二季每股收益的詳細資訊。第二季調整後每股收益為 2.69 美元,較前一年減少 0.16 美元。液化天然氣業務的剝離造成了 0.12 美元的不利影響,貨幣損失高達 0.04 美元,令人難以承受。我們的基礎(包括數量、價格和成本)下跌了 0.07 美元。除液化天然氣外,其他天然氣銷售相對平穩,因為較低的氦氣銷售在很大程度上被良好的現場銷售所抵消。受美洲和歐洲經濟改善的推動,價格上漲 0.04 美元。成本為 0.11 美元,主要是由於美洲固定成本上漲和維護費用增加,但被整個公司有利的成本生產力部分抵消。歐洲的股權附屬公司收入較好,但美洲的貢獻較低,部分抵消了這一影響。

  • Now, please turn to slide 13. I would like to provide an update on our FY25 full-year guidance. Since our last earnings call, we have canceled several large projects and observed volatility in the macroeconomic conditions. As we look at the guidance year-on-year, the divestiture of LNG will continue to drive a 4% decrease relative to the prior year. The large project cancellation will be a 3% headwind resulting from lower operating income and reduced capitalized interest. We anticipate based business growth of 2% to 5% for the year, despite the 5% headwind in helium, resulting in a fiscal 2025 full-year adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $11.85 to $12.15.

    現在請翻到第 13 張投影片。我想提供有關我們 25 財年全年指導的最新資訊。自上次財報電話會議以來,我們取消了幾個大型項目,並觀察到宏觀經濟狀況的波動。當我們查看同比指引時,液化天然氣的剝離將繼續導致同比下降 4%。由於營業收入下降和資本化利息減少,大型專案取消將帶來 3% 的不利影響。儘管氦氣市場面臨 5% 的阻力,但我們預計今年基礎業務成長率將達到 2% 至 5%,導致 2025 財年全年調整後每股收益在 11.85 美元至 12.15 美元之間。

  • Please note, the potential economic impact of global tariffs is not in our guide. While the industrial gas business is primarily a local business and very resilient, it is difficult to determine at this time if there will be broader macroeconomic impacts from tariffs or events that may impact our customers.

    請注意,全球關稅的潛在經濟影響不在我們的指南中。雖然工業氣體業務主要是本地業務並且非常有彈性,但目前很難確定關稅或可能影響我們客戶的事件是否會對宏觀經濟產生更廣泛的影響。

  • We expect our third quarter adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $2.90 to $3 and our full-year capital expenditures to be approximately $5 billion. We've included additional details on the segment results in the Appendix section.

    我們預計第三季調整後每股盈餘將在 2.90 美元至 3 美元之間,全年資本支出約為 50 億美元。我們在附錄部分提供了有關細分結果的更多詳細資訊。

  • Now, we'll open up the call for questions. Operator?

    現在,我們開始提問。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • John Mcnulty, BMO Capital Markets.

    蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 John Mcnulty。

  • John Mcnulty - Analyst

    John Mcnulty - Analyst

  • Good morning and thanks for taking my question, and welcome to Air Products. So I had a question for you on the underperforming projects where you highlighted that there's no operating income contribution, I guess, maybe a couple things on that. First, how should we think about the EBITDA contribution, just because obviously early on, there's going to be a lot of DNA just given the size and scale of these projects? And then I guess also tied to that, the Alberta project looks like it's ballooned up to almost 3 times what I think the original plan was. I guess, can you help us to understand what's going on there and what looks to be a reasonable delay in that project as well? Thanks very much.

    早安,感謝您回答我的問題,歡迎來到空氣產品公司。因此,我有一個關於表現不佳的項目的問題要問您,您強調說這些項目沒有營業收入貢獻,我想,也許有幾件事與此有關。首先,我們應該如何看待 EBITDA 貢獻,因為顯然在早期,考慮到這些項目的規模和規模,就會有很多 DNA?我想也與此相關,阿爾伯塔計畫看起來已經膨脹到原計畫的近三倍。我想,您能幫助我們了解那裡發生了什麼以及該專案的合理延遲是什麼嗎?非常感謝。

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, John, for the question. Let's start with the contribution from the projects in terms of EBITDA. As we're saying here, we expect to basically recover our capital on an undiscounted basis, which means that we expect to be able to get, on average, our depreciation for this project. Of course, this is not what we expect to have, but that's what the situation is, considering the tremendous increase that we have in capital, which is part of your second question.

    謝謝約翰提出的問題。讓我們先從專案對 EBITDA 的貢獻開始。正如我們在這裡所說的那樣,我們預計基本上能夠以未折舊的方式收回我們的資本,這意味著我們預計能夠平均獲得該項目的折舊。當然,這不是我們所期望的,但考慮到我們資本的大幅增加,情況就是這樣,這也是您第二個問題的一部分。

  • Regarding Alberta, I would say that, of course, we had some self-inflicted issues. And when you have that in a construction environment that is so unforgivable as Alberta, you pay a steep price. So when you have a project that gets out of sequence and you start losing windows in terms of weather and how to execute the project and then you have very low productivity from contractors that are very expensive to start with, you get on this spiral and then the product gets delayed.

    關於阿爾伯塔省,我想說,當然,我們有一些自己造成的問題。當你在像阿爾伯塔省這樣難以原諒的建築環境中遇到這種情況時,你會付出高昂的代價。因此,當你的專案無法按計劃進行時,你就會開始在天氣和專案執行方面失去機會,然後你的承包商的生產效率就會非常低,而承包商的初始成本又非常高,你就會陷入這種惡性循環,然後產品就會被延遲。

  • We have capitalized interest, in the case of Air Products, it's including the cost of these projects. So what happened here, basically, this didn't happen in the last 90 days, as you can imagine. At the end of last year, the company basically understood that we had a problem. We hired a third-party to look at the project to give us some opinions about how we're doing on that. And as a result of that and some of the reviews that I was able to to do here, we basically took some actions on replacing project management teams, replacing contractors, and then we re-sequenced the job. And that resulted on this estimate for cost and and schedule that we presented today. Again, of course, this is not exactly what we would like to have. But we have a commitment to be transparent with the shareholders and this is where we are today.

    我們已經將利息資本化,就空氣產品公司而言,它包括這些項目的成本。所以這裡發生的事情,基本上,這不是在過去 90 天內發生的,你可以想像。去年年底,公司基本上了解到我們有問題。我們聘請了第三方來審查該項目,以便就我們的進展提供一些意見。基於這一點以及我在這裡能夠進行的一些審查,我們基本上採取了一些行動,更換了專案管理團隊,更換了承包商,然後重新安排了工作順序。這就是我們今天提出的成本和時間表的估算。當然,這並不是我們所希望的。但我們承諾對股東保持透明,這就是我們今天的狀況。

  • John Mcnulty - Analyst

    John Mcnulty - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. Thanks for the color on that. And then maybe just a follow-up. In your introductory remarks, you spoke about some of the past strategic decisions including the pivot to gasification. You've got it seems like $0.40 to $0.50 worth of kind of big gasification projects out there in terms of EPS contribution. I guess, can you speak to your comfort with those projects? Are they delivering kind of as you would expect if you were starting from scratch? And I guess can you speak to the resiliency that you would expect from those if we have some sort of a downturn, especially, given some of the issues going on between the U.S. and China?

    知道了。好的。謝謝你的色彩。然後也許只是後續行動。在您的開場白中,您談到了過去的一些策略決策,包括轉向氣化。從 EPS 貢獻來看,似乎有一些大型氣化項目價值 0.40 到 0.50 美元。我想,您能談談您對這些項目的滿意程度嗎?如果您從零開始,他們交付的產品是否符合您的預期?我想您能否談談,如果我們出現某種程度的經濟衰退,特別是考慮到美國和中國之間正在發生的一些問題,您期望這些產品具有什麼樣的彈性?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's another tough subject. We have three gasification projects in China where we operate the coal gasifiers. And the reality is if you look at our numbers from '23 and '24, the EPS contribution, the combined EPS contribution of these three projects was close to zero. So it's not exactly the $0.40 you're mentioning here. Before you ask, I know there were a lot of discussions about the (inaudible) project when that started. The (inaudible) project is probably the best of the three projects we have there. The main issues we have are in the other two projects. So we have our team working on that, trying to understand how we can optimize these assets. But if you look historically on the performance of the Asian segment for Air Products, you'll see some deterioration coming from the last few years. And I would say that most of this deterioration came from these gasification projects.

    這又是一個棘手的問題。我們在中國擁有三個氣化項目,並在其中運作煤氣化爐。事實是,如果你看看我們 23 年和 24 年的數據,每股盈餘貢獻,這三個專案的總每股盈餘貢獻接近零。所以它並不完全是您在這裡提到的 0.40 美元。在您詢問之前,我知道當該專案開始時,已經有很多關於該專案的討論。(聽不清楚)專案可能是我們在那裡進行的三個專案中最好的一個。我們的主要問題出現在另外兩個項目。因此,我們的團隊正在致力於此,試圖了解如何優化這些資產。但如果回顧一下空氣產品公司亞洲業務的歷史表現,就會發現過去幾年出現了一些下滑。我想說,大部分的惡化都是這些氣化項目所引起的。

  • Any terms of the tensions between China and the U.S.? At this point, we don't see a lot in the ground. Our business is really a local business. I think it's understood locally by the government and the customers as a local business. And again, these are the two projects that we have more problems there. They're not government entities. They are private-owned companies that make methanol or ammonia from coal gasification.

    中美有何緊張關係?目前,我們在地面上看不到太多東西。我們的業務實際上是本地業務。我認為當地政府和客戶都將其理解為本地企業。再說一次,這兩個項目是我們遇到較多問題的項目。它們不是政府實體。它們是透過煤氣化生產甲醇或氨的私人公司。

  • John Mcnulty - Analyst

    John Mcnulty - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks very much for the color.

    知道了。非常感謝這個顏色。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的史蒂夫伯恩。

  • Steve Byrne - Analyst

    Steve Byrne - Analyst

  • Thank you. In your remarks, Eduardo, about the scoping in Louisiana, I was just wondering if one potential scenario would be to just focus on hydrogen. You mentioned you have the largest pipeline network in the Gulf Coast. Why pursue ammonia at all? Drop the ammonia reactor, drop the deep water port, and just focus on hydrogen and reduce the CapEx, is that a scenario that you would consider?

    謝謝。愛德華多,在你關於路易斯安那州範圍的發言中,我只是想知道一個可能的情況是否只關注氫氣。您提到您擁有墨西哥灣沿岸最大的管道網絡。為什麼要追求氨呢?放棄氨反應堆,放棄深水港,只專注於氫氣並減少資本支出,這是您會考慮的方案嗎?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's exactly the scenario we are trying to to explain here. We're talking about not only having someone else executing the ammonia loop and owning the ammonia loop, but also, another company or the same company taking care of the CO2 sequestration which is not a core business for us. So the objective, Steve, from the total cost of this project, let's say, it's $8 billion with full scope, our objective is to bring the total CapEx down to a range of $5 billion to $6 billion with a form (inaudible) agreement for the hydrogen and nitrogen. That's the objective.

    這正是我們在此試圖解釋的情況。我們討論的不僅是讓其他人執行氨循環並擁有氨循環,而且還讓另一家公司或同一家公司負責二氧化碳封存,這對我們來說不是核心業務。因此,史蒂夫,我們的目標是,從這個項目的總成本來看,假設全範圍的成本為 80 億美元,我們的目標是將總資本支出降至 50 億美元至 60 億美元的範圍內,並就氫氣和氮氣達成一份(聽不清楚)協議。這就是目標。

  • We are giving ourselves until the end of the year to work on these options. And I'm relatively optimistic on that. I think we have a good location. We have probably the best CO2 space in the region, so I think we have the right components. And our total CapEx is in line or even a little better than other products that were announced in the region when you adjust for the size of the project.

    我們將在今年年底之前研究這些選擇。我對此相對樂觀。我認為我們的位置很好。我們可能擁有該地區最好的二氧化碳空間,所以我認為我們擁有正確的組件。如果根據項目規模進行調整,我們的總資本支出與該地區宣布的其他產品一致,甚至略好一些。

  • Steve Byrne - Analyst

    Steve Byrne - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you for that. And with a question about Neom, is $600 a tonne a reasonable estimate for the green ammonia that you will be taking possession from the joint venture? And curious to hear your view on the value proposition to potential customers at $600 a tonne.

    好的。謝謝你。關於 Neom 的問題,對於你們從合資企業獲得的綠色氨,每噸 600 美元是一個合理的估價嗎?我很想聽聽您對每噸 600 美元的潛在客戶價值主張的看法。

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. As you can imagine, we cannot talk about specific numbers on our agreements. I can tell you that from the outside, I was very concerned with this project because, we have this long term take-or-pay commitment to buy the entire production of ammonia. I have seen several reports from Southside analysts with estimates of the price. I can tell you that I was positively surprised with the numbers that I found. And they are in the lower part of the range of the estimates that I've seen before.

    是的。正如您所想像的,我們無法在協議中談論具體的數字。我可以告訴你,從外部來看,我非常關心這個項目,因為我們有長期的照付不議承諾,購買全部生產的氨。我已看到 Southside 分析師發布的幾份有關價格估算的報告。我可以告訴你,我對所發現的數字感到非常驚訝。而且它們處於我之前所見估計範圍的較低部分。

  • I would say that in addition to that, the one positive point for our Neom project is that since we own the power generation in both solar and wind, and there is no other variable cost, our price that we're going to have from the joint venture is going to be basically fixed for the life of the agreement. We have a small adjustment for OEM, but that would be it. So I think in the long term, it's very favorable outlook for us in the market. In the short term, '27 to basically 2030 until the regulations in Europe are more well-developed, we're going to have a little less contribution. But I'm relatively optimistic that the product will contribute to us when we start up the plant in 2027.

    我想說的是,除此之外,我們的 Neom 專案的一個積極點是,由於我們擁有太陽能和風能發電,並且沒有其他可變成本,因此我們從合資企業獲得的價格在協議有效期內基本是固定的。我們對 OEM 做了一些小調整,但僅此而已。因此我認為從長遠來看,我們的市場前景非常有利。短期內,也就是從 2027 年到 2030 年,直到歐洲的法規更加完善,我們的貢獻將會減少一些。但我相對樂觀地認為,當我們在 2027 年啟動工廠時,該產品將為我們做出貢獻。

  • Steve Byrne - Analyst

    Steve Byrne - Analyst

  • Very good. Thank you.

    非常好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

    大衛‧貝格萊特,德意志銀行。

  • David Begleiter - Analyst

    David Begleiter - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning. Eduardo, first, on the headcount reduction, what's the initial savings from the first tranche of roughly 1,800 people being let go and what's the cadence of those savings?

    謝謝。早安.愛德華多,首先,關於裁員,第一批裁員約 1,800 人,最初能省下多少錢?省下的節奏是怎樣的?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We started this process before, even in '23, '24. I'll let Melissa explain the numbers. But we are very advanced on the '23, '24. And I think we are already close to 50% or more than that on the new reductions of 800 people. Melissa, do you have additional comments on that?

    我們之前就開始了這個過程,甚至在 2023 年、2024 年。我讓梅麗莎解釋這些數字。但我們在 23、24 方面已經取得了很大進展。我認為,我們新削減的 800 人已經接近 50% 甚至更多。梅麗莎,您對此還有其他評論嗎?

  • Melissa Schaeffer - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Melissa Schaeffer - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Sure, yes. Thank you, Eduardo. So since FY23, we've taken actions on around 2,400 individuals. That's about 10% of the organization. This will largely be complete, the FY23 and '24 actions, by the end of this fiscal year. And we'll see the FY25 actions continue through FY26. We should see about $25 million in savings for this fiscal year associated to the '25 actions, and the remaining will be seen in '26. We're looking for a run rate of around $100 million for the FY25 actions.

    當然,是的。謝謝你,愛德華多。自 23 財年以來,我們已對約 2,400 人採取了行動。這大約佔該組織的 10%。到本財政年度結束,23 財年和 24 財年的行動將基本完成。我們將看到 25 財年的行動將持續到 26 財年。我們應該看到本財年與 25 項行動相關的節省金額約為 2500 萬美元,其餘的將在 26 年實現。我們預計 2025 財年的行動的運作率約為 1 億美元。

  • David Begleiter - Analyst

    David Begleiter - Analyst

  • Thank you. And Eduardo, just in Alberta, again, in six months' time, the project has basically doubled in cost and been pushed out by two years. I'm still not clear when the company became aware of this. And what's been the reaction of your customer to this delay?

    謝謝。愛德華多,僅在阿爾伯塔省,在六個月的時間裡,該項目的成本基本上翻了一番,並且工期被推遲了兩年。我仍然不清楚公司何時意識到這一點。您的客戶對於這種延遲有何反應?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I hope you understand that I'm here for 90 days and I cannot give you that information precisely. It's something that we're probably going to need to take a look. And I can make some comments in private to you, but it's definitely not something that I can comment here.

    我希望你們理解,我在這裡待了 90 天,我無法準確地向你們提供這些資訊。我們可能需要看一下這個。我可以私下向你們發表一些評論,但這絕對不是我可以在這裡評論的事情。

  • David Begleiter - Analyst

    David Begleiter - Analyst

  • Understood. Thank you.

    明白了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Zekauskas, J.P. Morgan.

    摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • Thanks very much. Can you talk about what the point of the remaining Louisiana project is for Air Products? That is how much hydrogen you need and why you need it and why you want to go forward with that part of the project?

    非常感謝。您能談談剩餘的路易斯安那項目對於空氣產品公司來說意味著什麼嗎?這就是你需要多少氫氣、為什麼需要它以及為什麼要繼續推進這個計畫的這一部分?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Jeff, if I understand your question, the total project, if you go back and look at the numbers, if I'm not wrong, it's something like 750 million cubic feet a day of hydrogen. And as you know, we announced two ammonia trains. So the ammonia production is taking about 75% to 80% of the -- or maybe more, about 80% to 85% of the total hydrogen production. So the balance that we have is really the equivalent of one SMR (inaudible) size SMR. So that's what we have today in the scope. And as you know, the size of our system, this is a relatively small part of our total production in the Gulf Coast. And we believe we can absorb that in our normal business.

    傑夫,如果我理解你的問題,整個項目,如果你回頭看看這些數字,如果我沒有記錯的話,它每天的氫氣產量大約是 7.5 億立方英尺。正如你們所知,我們宣布了兩條氨列車。因此,氨的產量約佔氫氣總產量的 75% 到 80% —— 甚至更多,約佔氫氣總產量的 80% 到 85%。因此,我們所擁有的平衡其實相當於一個 SMR(聽不清楚)大小的 SMR。這就是我們今天的範圍。如您所知,我們的系統規模僅佔墨西哥灣沿岸總產量的一小部分。我們相信我們可以在正常業務中吸收這一點。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • Thank you for that. And for Melissa, if the cost savings from the employee reductions are something like $100 million going forward, does that mean that these employees or the cost of these employees were mainly capitalized? And so the income statement effects of getting to a more normal employee level are smaller?

    謝謝你。對梅莉莎來說,如果未來透過裁員可以節省約 1 億美元的成本,這是否意味著這些員工或這些員工的成本主要被資本化了?那麼,達到更正常的員工水準對損益表的影響會更小嗎?

  • Melissa Schaeffer - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Melissa Schaeffer - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Great question, Jeff. So the amount that I'm giving you, that $100 million associated to the FY25 program, that's a P&L impact. So there are in fact engineers that are capitalized on top of that $100 million of savings. Around $40 million from an engineering resources impact that you don't see float down to the bottom line, but obviously, we'll have a reduction in the capital cost.

    很好的問題,傑夫。因此,我給你的金額,與 FY25 計畫相關的 1 億美元,是對損益的影響。因此,實際上還有工程師可以利用這 1 億美元的節省來獲得資本。工程資源影響約為 4000 萬美元,您看不到這筆支出浮動到底線,但顯然,我們的資本成本會降低。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Thank you so much.

    好的。偉大的。太感謝了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

    花旗銀行的派崔克‧坎寧安 (Patrick Cunningham)。

  • Patrick Cunningham - Analyst

    Patrick Cunningham - Analyst

  • Good morning and welcome, Eduardo. For Neo, you're now delaying the downstream investment until you get regulatory clarity. What does that mean for the agreement with Total? And who are the logical customers for that green ammonia? And just your general view on the relative premium you would get paid there?

    早安,歡迎你,愛德華多。對於 Neo,您現在正在推遲下游投資,直到您獲得監管明確性。這對於與道達爾的協議意味著什麼?那麼,綠色氨水的合理客戶是誰呢?您對於您在那裡獲得的相對溢價有什麼總體看法?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Our agreement for green hydrogen in Europe, the agreement that we announced a few months ago and they were making reference to, is really for 2030, right? And in the agreement, as you know, the customer has several refineries across Europe and as part of the agreement, what we're basically doing today is engineering work and permitting work and trying to wait to see how each country will transpose the EU regulations. So together, we can decide which refinery would make more sense for us to supply the green hydrogen. So this is the work we're going to be doing between now and 2027, I would say. And by 2027, we hope to have a definition, we'll be able to understand exactly the regulations and what makes sense for both our products and the customer in terms of installing this ammonia (inaudible) for hydrogen production.

    我們幾個月前宣布的、他們提到的歐洲綠氫能協議確實是針對 2030 年的,對嗎?如您所知,在協議中,客戶在歐洲擁有多家煉油廠,作為協議的一部分,我們今天主要進行工程工作和許可工作,並試圖等待觀察每個國家如何轉換歐盟法規。因此,我們可以共同決定哪個煉油廠更適合我們供應綠色氫氣。所以我想說,這就是我們從現在到 2027 年要做的工作。到 2027 年,我們希望有一個定義,我們將能夠準確地理解法規,以及在安裝這種氨(聽不清楚)用於氫氣生產方面,對我們的產品和客戶來說什麼才是有意義的。

  • In terms of, what we do, starting 2027, it's part of what I have been working on, we hope to be able to announce firm plans on how we're going to commercialize this ammonia again FOB, Saudi Arabia. We don't intend to be long term marketers of ammonia, to be in the ammonia business. So we're looking for potential partners and I hope to be able to have something firm that I can share with you all by the end of 2025.

    就我們所做的事情而言,從 2027 年開始,這是我一直在努力的一部分,我們希望能夠宣布關於如何再次將這種氨商業化的明確計劃,離岸價,沙烏地阿拉伯。我們不打算成為氨的長期行銷商,也不打算從事氨業務。因此,我們正在尋找潛在的合作夥伴,我希望能夠在 2025 年底之前達成一些可以與大家分享的具體協議。

  • Patrick Cunningham - Analyst

    Patrick Cunningham - Analyst

  • Understood. Very helpful. And I'm curious as you go and meet with leaders in the different countries, what's your sense for the opportunity on productivity and price optimization for the core business? How meaningful will those levers be and where do you see the biggest opportunities on price?

    明白了。非常有幫助。我很好奇,當您去與不同國家的領導人會面時,您對核心業務的生產力和價格優化機會有何看法?這些槓桿有多大意義?您認為價格方面最大的機會在哪裡?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I would say that coming from the outside, going back in time, I tell people that I used to come to Allentown 2025 years ago to work in projects and talking to business development people, to engineering people. And culturally, they were not very different from what I was used with. So I wasn't expecting very different cultures when I came here. I didn't know exactly what to expect on the operating side of the day-to-day. But I'm pleasantly surprised. I think the local business performs well. I think they have a lot of attention to the detail. They have been working very hard on price and productivity for the last few years.

    我想說,從外部來看,回顧過去,我告訴人們,2025 年前我曾來到阿倫敦從事專案工作,與業務開發人員和工程人員交談。從文化角度來說,它們與我所習慣的並無太大差異。所以當我來到這裡時,我並沒有期待看到如此不同的文化。我並不確切知道日常營運方面會發生什麼事。但我感到很驚喜。我認為本地業務表現良好。我認為他們非常注重細節。過去幾年他們一直在努力提高價格和生產力。

  • It's doesn't mean it's perfect. There is always an opportunity. You see that we talk about our base business today running at 24% operating profit margin. And by the way, you won't see any reference to EBITDA in any of our presentations going forward, so we're going to look at really the operating profit from our regions. Keep the equity affiliates outside of that, although we have fantastic business on some of these joint ventures. But we're going to focus on our business. And I don't think there is any reason for us to not have the same level of performance of the best-in-class players here. So we're going to work on that.

    這並不意味著它是完美的。機會總是有的。您會看到,我們今天談論的基礎業務的營業利潤率為 24%。順便說一句,您不會在我們今後的任何演示中看到 EBITDA 的任何提及,因此我們將真正關注我們所在地區的營業利潤。儘管我們在一些合資企業中擁有出色的業務,但我們將股權關聯公司排除在外。但我們將專注於我們的業務。我認為我們沒有理由不能達到這裡最優秀的球員水準。所以我們會努力實現這一點。

  • I believe there is an opportunity for us to raise our operating margins to the level of 30% as we have in the roadmap slide. And it's basically blocking, tackling, and reviewing every business, paying attention to every detail. And I think the business already had that DNA and I'm just trying to expedite that and make sure that everyone behaves like a business owner and they own their own P&Ls and we can accomplish this increase in operating profit margin.

    我相信我們有機會將營業利潤率提高到 30% 的水平,就像我們在路線圖幻燈片中提到的那樣。它基本上會阻止、處理和審查每一項業務,並關注每一個細節。我認為企業已經具備了這種 DNA,我只是試圖加快這一進程,確保每個人都像企業主一樣行事,擁有自己的損益表,這樣我們就可以實現營業利潤率的提高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Leithead, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的麥克萊特黑德。

  • Michael Leithead - Analyst

    Michael Leithead - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks. Good morning. First question I was hoping you could provide a bit more color on how the team works through deciding which projects should be canceled versus which projects were deemed underperforming yet you go forward, such as why the green hydrogen project in Arizona moves forward versus say, the green hydrogen project in New York.

    偉大的。謝謝。早安.第一個問題,我希望您能更詳細地介紹一下團隊是如何決定哪些項目應該取消,哪些項目被認為表現不佳但仍然繼續推進的,例如為什麼亞利桑那州的綠色氫能項目繼續推進,而紐約的綠色氫能項目卻沒有繼續推進。

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. It's just a cash flow decision. So you have two factors, right? One, any commercial commitments that you have with customers, we take that very seriously, so we need to finish any contractual commitment that we have. And then, if you have the freedom of making a decision like that, then you just look at your cash flow, look at what you need to spend to finish the project from where you are, and what the cash flow will be after -- the discount cash flow will be after you start the plan. So in the case of Arizona, we are basically 90% done or 95% of the CapEx was already spent or committed, so it was not -- the best thing for the shareholders was to finish the project and get whatever cash flow we get out of this project, right? In the case of Messina in New York, we were in the beginning of the project, we still had to spend another $400 million to finish, and based on the perspectives that you have for the mobility market, it didn't make sense for us to continue on a cash basis.

    是的。這只是一個現金流決策。所以有兩個因素,對嗎?首先,我們非常重視您與客戶之間的任何商業承諾,因此我們需要完成我們之間的任何合約承諾。然後,如果你有做出這樣的決定的自由,那麼你只需看看你的現金流,看看你需要花多少錢來完成你現在的項目,以及在你開始計劃之後的現金流是多少——折扣現金流是多少。因此,就亞利桑那州而言,我們基本上已經完成了 90%,或者 95% 的資本支出已經花費或承諾,所以對股東來說最好的事情不是完成項目並獲得我們從該項目中獲得的任何現金流,對嗎?就紐約墨西拿計畫而言,我們當時還處於專案開始階段,還必須再花費 4 億美元才能完成,而且根據您對行動市場的看法,我們繼續以現金方式進行專案是沒有意義的。

  • Michael Leithead - Analyst

    Michael Leithead - Analyst

  • Great. That's super helpful. And then second, I just was hoping you could talk more about the cash flow progression you expect over the next one to two years. I guess when you talk about net cash flow, is that after funding the dividend? And how do you think about when it's appropriate to begin share repurchases as you've alluded to in the slides?

    偉大的。這非常有幫助。其次,我只是希望您能多談談您預期的未來一到兩年的現金流進展。我想,當您談論淨現金流時,是指支付股息之後的現金流嗎?正如您在幻燈片中提到的,您認為何時開始股票回購才是合適的?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We are talking about being neutral, including everything, but I'll let Melissa give you more details. Go ahead.

    我們正在談論保持中立,包括一切,但我會讓梅麗莎向您提供更多細節。前進。

  • Melissa Schaeffer - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Melissa Schaeffer - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Sure. Thanks, Eduardo. So when we look at cash flow positive, we believe we can be cash flow positive as early as next year. This obviously is of course dependent on our WIP curves for the execution of our projects and several other factors. But as of right now, we are projecting to be cash flow positive next year. Additionally, we are forecasting to be net cash flow positive through 2028 and then accelerating to significantly positive thereafter.

    當然。謝謝,愛德華多。因此,當我們看到現金流為正時,我們相信最早明年就能達到現金流為正。這顯然取決於我們專案執行的 WIP 曲線以及其他幾個因素。但截至目前,我們預計明年的現金流將為正值。此外,我們預測到 2028 年淨現金流將為正,此後將加速至顯著正值。

  • When I think about share repurchase, obviously, I take into consideration a number of things. We need to think about and assess our balance sheet. We need to de-lever as we decrease our capital spend. But of course, part of that plan, as our balance sheet does get into a position to do so and economically we can, we will then put in our share buyback program at that point in time.

    當我考慮股票回購時,顯然我會考慮很多事情。我們需要思考和評估我們的資產負債表。我們在減少資本支出的同時,也需要降低槓桿。但當然,作為該計劃的一部分,當我們的資產負債表確實達到這一水平並且經濟上我們也能夠做到這一點時,我們將在那時實施我們的股票回購計劃。

  • Michael Leithead - Analyst

    Michael Leithead - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的達菲費雪。

  • Duffy Fischer - Analyst

    Duffy Fischer - Analyst

  • Good morning. Helium for you guys has been a pretty volatile earnings contributor over the last five years, kind of ran up post the war and then rolled off hard. And it acts kind of like a commodity on supply demand to some degree. So can you help size the earnings contribution from helium today and basically how you see that contribution progressing kind of out through your '26 to '29 period?

    早安.你們當中的一些人,過去五年來,氦氣一直是相當不穩定的收益貢獻者,戰後開始上漲,然後又急劇下降。在某種程度上,它就像是一種供需商品。那麼,您能否協助估算目前氦氣對收益的貢獻,以及您認為這種貢獻在 2026 年至 2029 年期間將如何發展?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Helium is a different product. As you know, we have suppliers and customers and it's a more cyclical business. And it became even more cyclical when the BLM basically ended the program and they were basically, the balance of the volume and that went away. Products, we took measures to protect ourselves, so we have this big cavern that we commission in Texas. And we use that to basically absorb the cyclical volumes.

    是的。氦氣是另一種產品。如您所知,我們有供應商和客戶,而且這是一個更具週期性的業務。當 BLM 基本上結束該計劃時,它變得更加週期性,並且基本上,數量的平衡就消失了。產品,我們採取了措施來保護自己,所以我們在德克薩斯州建造了這個大洞穴。我們利用它來吸收週期性波動。

  • We don't have it hidden as a segment in our numbers so I have a very difficult time to give you more specific numbers on that. But I can tell you that compared to the years pre-COVID when we had the the market shortage and the prices went up, I think the team and our products did a very good job pushing and taking advantage of that. They really increased the operating profit very significantly. And now that the market is long because of all the Russian products that you see coming in Asia, we have been managing that. We're using our cavern. And although the numbers year-over-year, they are negative for us, as Melissa said, it was a very significant impact, as you know, their products has a much larger percentage of their sales in helium than their larger competitors.

    我們的數字中沒有將其隱藏為一個部分,因此我很難為您提供更具體的數字。但我可以告訴你,與新冠疫情之前的幾年相比,當時市場短缺,價格上漲,我認為團隊和我們的產品在推動和利用這一趨勢方面做得非常好。他們確實大幅提高了營業利潤。現在,由於大量俄羅斯產品進入亞洲,市場空間龐大,我們一直在管理這個問題。我們正在使用我們的洞穴。儘管這些數字與去年同期相比有所下降,但對我們來說卻是負面的,正如梅麗莎所說,這是一個非常重大的影響,如你所知,他們的產品中氦氣的銷售額佔比他們的大型競爭對手要大得多。

  • But today, our operating income from helium is still significantly higher than it was in the years pre-COVID. So it went up very significantly. It's coming down, but it's still better than, let's say, the period between '15 and '18. We expect that for '26 and '27 that we'll continue to see some headwinds in price. We have more volume because of our cavern, so we expect to manage that and reduce these headwinds as much as we can. But other than this information that Melissa was able to provide for this year, I'm afraid that we cannot disclose more than that.

    但今天,我們從氦氣中獲得的營業收入仍然明顯高於新冠疫情之前的幾年。因此它大幅上漲了。雖然正在下降,但仍然比 2015 年至 2018 年期間更好。我們預計,26 年和 27 年價格將繼續面臨一些阻力。由於我們的洞穴,我們的容量更大,因此我們希望管理這一點並盡可能減少這些逆風。但除了梅麗莎今年能夠提供的資訊之外,恐怕我們不能透露更多資訊。

  • Duffy Fischer - Analyst

    Duffy Fischer - Analyst

  • Fair enough. And then I just wanted to go back if I could in Neom just to understand. So in the early years before you have the offtake agreement, let's say in 2030 and hopefully some other committed by then when you're selling just the ammonia, your assumption is that your offtake price for the product will be meaningfully lower than what you'll be able to sell it at, so you'll be able to generate significant free positive cash flow and EBITDA from the asset or from the offtake agreement?

    很公平。然後,如果可以的話,我只是想回到 Neom 來了解情況。因此,在簽訂承購協議之前的最初幾年,比如說在 2030 年,並且希望到那時您只銷售氨時能得到其他人的承諾,您的假設是,該產品的承購價格將明顯低於您能夠出售的價格,因此您將能夠從資產或承購協議中產生可觀的自由正現金流和 EBITDA?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I don't know your definition of meaningfully, but it will be -- our forecast is that we'll be able starting 2027 to be positive and to increase that number as the years go by. We were trying to be cautious here on what we can do. We are still negotiating a lot of these offtake agreements. But our expectation is that we're going to be slightly positive in '27 and increase from there. Again, we need to do that because, as you can imagine, if we have a very favorable price for the ammonia, as I explained, it means that the joint venture doesn't have a very high return. So we need to get some margin to basically remunerate our shareholders for the investment that we made at the joint venture.

    我不知道你對有意義的定義是什麼,但它將是——我們的預測是,從 2027 年開始我們將能夠保持正增長,並且隨著時間的推移,這個數字將會不斷增加。我們試著謹慎地考慮我們能做的事情。我們仍在就許多承購協議進行談判。但我們的預期是,27 年我們的業績會略有好轉,然後繼續成長。再次強調,我們需要這樣做,因為正如你所想像的,如果我們對氨的價格非常優惠,正如我所解釋的那樣,這意味著合資企業的回報不會很高。因此,我們需要獲得一些利潤,以回報我們的股東在合資企業中的投資。

  • Duffy Fischer - Analyst

    Duffy Fischer - Analyst

  • Terrific. Thank you, guys.

    了不起。謝謝你們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Josh Spector, UBS.

    瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特。

  • Joshua Spector - Analyst

    Joshua Spector - Analyst

  • Good morning. First, a quick follow-up for Melissa and just an answer to Mike's comments around free cash flow, can you just confirm your '26 comments? Is that positive free cash flow after the dividend or before the dividend?

    早安.首先,請快速跟進梅麗莎的問題,並回答麥克關於自由現金流的評論,您能否確認您的 26 條評論?股利之後或股利之前,自由現金流是正值嗎?

  • Melissa Schaeffer - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Melissa Schaeffer - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • That's positive free cash flow after the dividend.

    這是股利後的正自由現金流。

  • Joshua Spector - Analyst

    Joshua Spector - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thanks. And then for Eduardo, I wanted to ask around your general approach to guidance here. So obviously, our products versus peers has had a bit of a different approach in terms of what macro assumptions are baked in. So as you look at what's here for 2025, the next couple of quarters, what's your assumptions baked in on a macro perspective? And then more medium term when you say high single digit EPS growth, how much of that again air products in your control, cost savings, et cetera, projects versus macro assumptions? Thanks.

    完美的。謝謝。然後對於愛德華多,我想問你在這裡的一般指導方法。因此,顯然,我們的產品與同行相比,在宏觀假設方面略有不同。那麼,當您展望 2025 年以及接下來的幾個季度時,從宏觀角度來看,您有何假設?然後從中期來看,當您說每股盈餘將實現高個位數成長時,您控制的航空產品、成本節約等項目與宏觀假設相比有多少?謝謝。

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, I would say that, we expect not a lot of help going forward from the economy, for the next two quarters. The currency we expect to be about where we are today. The tariff issue, as Melissa said, is a little bit complicated now. We don't have a lot of trade in our day-to-day business. The main issue here is on the capital side. And as you can imagine, for our projects, we don't buy things off the shelf. We basically have to order equipment and modules and that kind of stuff. And they normally take 6 months to 18 months to be manufactured by our suppliers. And I have to say that it's a very difficult environment to predict right now, considering that you only pay the tariffs once you pay the equipment is imported. So we are having, as everyone else, a little difficulty trying to forecast what to do in our projects and going back to our customers that we are in active negotiations and presenting alternatives and trying to share the risk somehow. But this is affecting much more our projects, our business development than our day-to-day business.

    嗯,我想說的是,我們預計未來兩季經濟不會有太大的幫助。我們期望的貨幣與今天的貨幣大致相同。正如梅麗莎所說,關稅問題現在有點複雜。我們的日常業務中並沒有太多的貿易。這裡的主要問題在於資本方面。正如您所想像的,對於我們的項目,我們不會購買現成的產品。我們基本上必須訂購設備、模組和諸如此類的東西。我們的供應商通常需要 6 個月到 18 個月的時間來生產它們。我必須說,現在的情況很難預測,因為只有在進口設備時才需要支付關稅。因此,和其他人一樣,我們在嘗試預測專案中要做什麼以及向客戶回饋我們正在積極談判、提出替代方案並嘗試以某種方式分擔風險方面遇到了一些困難。但這對我們的專案、業務發展的影響遠大於對我們的日常業務的影響。

  • Joshua Spector - Analyst

    Joshua Spector - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Mike Harrison, Seaport Research Partners.

    麥克·哈里森,海港研究夥伴。

  • Michael Harrison - Analyst

    Michael Harrison - Analyst

  • Good morning. Eduardo, you talked about, growth growth CapEx of $1.5 billion a year on the core industrial gas business. I'm just curious, is that kind of just a placeholder and the actual spend is going to depend on the number of available projects that you guys find meet return metrics? Maybe if you could talk just a little bit more about your approach to determining what projects you're going to pursue and what you'll pass on.

    早安.愛德華多,您談到了核心工業氣體業務每年 15 億美元的成長資本支出。我只是好奇,這只是一個佔位符,實際支出是否取決於你們發現符合回報指標的可用項目數量?也許您可以再多談談您確定要從事什麼專案以及要傳遞什麼專案的方法。

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, of course. It's just an estimate based on what we have been doing for the last few years. And the $1.5 billion is more like what do we envision for 2029, 2030. So if you look at the slide, you're going to see that for the next few years, we're going to have a little less than that. That's our expectation. But again, two things we need to have. First, we need to be able to fit that in our capital allocation principle which is being net cash neutral, including dividends, as Melissa said, from '26 to 28. And secondly, they need to satisfy our return expectations, right? I worked in this business for a long time and I can tell you that the most difficult thing when you talk about new projects is to say no, right? It's very easy to say yes. But you have to basically raise the -- to be very firm about your other rates, about the returns and expectations. And if the project can deliver that, that's great. If the project cannot deliver that after you stress all the assumptions, then you need to pass. And that will be the philosophy.

    是的,當然。這只是根據我們過去幾年所做的事情所做的估計。15億美元更像是我們對2029年、2030年的想像。所以如果你看幻燈片,你會發現,在接下來的幾年裡,我們的收入會比這少一點。這是我們的期望。但同樣,我們需要有兩樣東西。首先,我們需要能夠將其納入我們的資本配置原則,即從 26 年到 28 年實現淨現金中性,包括股息,正如梅麗莎所說。其次,他們需要滿足我們的回報期望,對嗎?我在這個行業工作了很長時間,我可以告訴你,當你談論新專案時最困難的事情就是說不,對嗎?回答「是」很容易。但你必須從根本上提高——對其他利率、回報和預期保持堅定態度。如果該專案能夠實現這一點,那就太好了。如果在強調所有假設之後專案仍無法實現這一目標,那麼你就需要通過。這就是我們的哲學。

  • Michael Harrison - Analyst

    Michael Harrison - Analyst

  • All right. Thank you for that. And then just related to the uncertainty around tariffs, a lot of companies that we talked to are saying that they're seeing some slowing in manufacturing activity and pauses in decision making. I'm just curious, your merchant (inaudible) business probably gives you some pretty real time line of sight into what's going on with your manufacturing customers. Can you talk a little bit about what you've been seeing in the March and April time frame across your three key regions from a merchant demand perspective? Thank you.

    好的。謝謝你。然後,就關稅的不確定性而言,我們採訪的許多公司都表示,他們看到製造業活動放緩,決策也暫停。我只是好奇,您的商家(聽不清楚)業務可能會讓您即時了解製造業客戶的情況。您能否從商家需求的角度談談您在 3 月和 4 月期間對三個主要地區的看法?謝謝。

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you. I'm asking the same question. It's a little difficult to get a good answer on that. In fact, I think we had a slight uptick in manufacturing before the tariffs came online because of people trying to create inventory or something else. And now, I expect that to be a little negative. Really, the countries that we're more concerned being more affected are U.S. and China. And at this point, it's very hard for me to give you a good estimate of what's going on there.

    謝謝。我問的是同樣的問題。這個問題很難得到一個好的答案。事實上,我認為在關稅上調之前,我們的製造業略有上升,因為人們試圖創造庫存或其他東西。現在,我預計這會有點負面。事實上,我們更擔心受影響更大的國家是美國和中國。目前,我很難對那裡發生的事情做出準確的評估。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

    克里斯帕金森,沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Chris Parkinson - Analyst

    Chris Parkinson - Analyst

  • Thank you so much. I just want to turn back to your commentary about Alberta and Rotterdam. Understanding some of the commentary and the underperformance and the cost overruns. Given you still have some decent customers associated with those projects, is this commentary about those specific projects and how they were managed? Or is it more of a larger indictment on your view of blue hydrogen? And how that fits into your intermediate to long term strategy? Thank you.

    太感謝了。我只是想回到你對阿爾伯塔省和鹿特丹的評論。了解一些評論、表現不佳和成本超支。鑑於您仍然有一些與這些項目相關的優質客戶,這是針對這些特定項目及其管理方式的評論嗎?或者這更像是對您對藍氫的看法的更大控訴?這與您的中長期策略有何契合?謝謝。

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I would say that our conflicts and our customers, they have been as expected. As I said quickly during the remarks, some of these projects, they had some additional volume that we need to place with all the customers. We still believe we can do that. That's being positive. We have some other projects like in Alberta that we have. A liquid hydrogen plant associated with the project that was supposed to produce liquid hydrogen for the local market for the mobility local market. That part of the project on the liquefied is basically done. So we're going to go ahead with that because it's going to be there. But we expect a very slow development on that. So the overall underperformance of the projects related to our expected financials are basically related to the overrun in CapEx and to some additional volumes for the mobility market. Everything else, I think, we expect to perform as expected in the project.

    我想說的是,我們和客戶之間的衝突都是如預期的。正如我在演講中快速提到的那樣,其中一些項目有一些額外的數量,我們需要將其提供給所有客戶。我們仍然相信我們能夠做到這一點。這才是積極的。我們還有一些其他項目,例如在阿爾伯塔省的項目。該項目相關的液氫工廠原本應該為當地移動市場生產液氫。關於液化的部分工程已經基本完工。所以我們將繼續進行下去,因為它將會存在。但我們預計這一進程將會非常緩慢。因此,與我們的預期財務狀況相關的項目的整體表現不佳基本上與資本支出超支以及行動市場的一些額外數量有關。我認為,我們期望專案中的其他一切都能如預期進行。

  • Chris Parkinson - Analyst

    Chris Parkinson - Analyst

  • Got it. And just a quick dive into a little bit more details on your comment about 2026 for cash flow post the dividends. You both just mentioned this, but just to really hit the nail on this, what further assumptions we need to make in terms of cash flow conversion of what's specifically in your control to reach those levels? And I apologize, but I've just got like 10 questions on it so I just want to be absolutely certain that we have this.

    知道了。讓我們快速深入了解您關於 2026 年股息後現金流的評論的更多細節。你們倆剛才都提到了這一點,但為了真正解決這個問題,我們需要在現金流轉換方面做出哪些進一步的假設,具體來說,你們可以控制什麼才能達到這些水平?我很抱歉,但我對此有 10 個問題,所以我只是想絕對確定我們確實有這個。

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Correct. At the end of the day, you look at our projects, our CapEx, and our cash generation. It's all about how much money we're going to spend in Louisiana, right? So it's all about how we're going to be able to de-risk that project and manage the cash flow for that project in '25, in '26, '27, and maybe a little bit of '28 to make sure that we are cash neutral on this period. So that's the main point. We're going to solve the equation to be cash neutral. We're not going to increase all that. That's our spirit here. And the level that we have is really the spending in the Louisiana project.

    正確的。最後,你會看到我們的專案、我們的資本支出和我們的現金產生狀況。這完全取決於我們將在路易斯安那州花多少錢,對嗎?所以,關鍵在於我們如何降低該專案的風險,並在 25 年、26 年、27 年甚至 28 年管理該專案的現金流,以確保我們在此期間保持現金中立。這就是重點。我們要解這個方程,讓現金保持中立。我們不打算增加所有這些。這就是我們的精神。我們所擁有的水平實際上是路易斯安那項目的支出。

  • Chris Parkinson - Analyst

    Chris Parkinson - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

    凱文·麥卡錫(Kevin McCarthy),Vertical Research Partners。

  • Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

    Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

  • Thank you and good morning. Eduardo, coming back to your blue hydrogen project in Louisiana, I was wondering if you can provide an update on your business discussions for that project, for example, irrespective of the scope changes that you talked about, I think your products is pursuing partnerships for sequestration and also, as I understood it, financial partners with an eye toward project financing. So how are those discussions going? And with regard to the new timeline of late '28 or possibly 2029, what is the rate-limiting step? Is it no longer receipt of the Class 6 permit and it's shifted to the business side sorting out some of the scope and financial issues that you outlined?

    謝謝,早安。愛德華多,回到您在路易斯安那州的藍色氫項目,我想知道您是否可以提供關於該項目業務討論的最新情況,例如,無論您談到的範圍變化如何,我認為您的產品正在尋求封存合作夥伴關係,而且,據我了解,還尋求著眼於項目融資的金融合作夥伴。那麼這些討論進度如何?至於 2028 年末或可能是 2029 年的新時間表,限速步驟是什麼?是否不再需要獲得 6 級許可證,而是轉移到業務方面來解決您概述的一些範圍和財務問題?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No. There are no issues with the permits. I think, we are basically complete on the permits for the Class 5 well. The issue really is how we progress on our discussions, both for the CO2 sequestration and the ammonia loop. And you know how long it will take. Again, we're giving ourselves until the end of this year to to get this concluded. And the final schedule will depend on how fast we can close these deals.

    不。許可證沒有問題。我認為,我們 5 級油井的許可證基本上已經發放完畢。問題其實在於我們如何在二氧化碳封存和氨循環的討論上取得進展。而且你知道這需要多長時間。再次強調,我們將在今年年底前完成這項工作。最終的時間表將取決於我們完成這些交易的速度。

  • In terms of project financing for the remaining scope of the project which is the hydrogen and nitrogen plant, it's something that we may consider. But it's not even practical to start talking about that before we can have the project completely delineated. And we have partners for the ammonia in the future. So to make it clear, I'm not a big fan of project finance. I think it's expensive. I think it's something that we should do only in cases where we have joint ventures or other cases. But for very large products like this one like Neom, it has some merit and in the case of Neom, frankly, it even helped us to keep the project very well-contained in the box. So we do not have the same issues that we have in other places in terms of overruns and so forth. And I think part of that is the discipline that came with the project finance. So we're going to look for that and we may look for that depending on our cash flow and depending on the offers that we have. But that's not the priority right now. The priorities are the CO2 and the money.

    對於該專案剩餘部分(即氫氣和氮氣工廠)的專案融資,我們可能會考慮。但在我們能夠完全描述出這個項目之前開始談論這個問題是不切實際的。我們未來在氨領域也有合作夥伴。所以要明確一點,我並不是專案融資的忠實粉絲。我認為它很貴。我認為只有在有合資企業或其他情況下我們才應該這樣做。但對於像 Neom 這樣的大型產品來說,它還是有一定優點的,就 Neom 而言,坦白說,它甚至幫助我們將項目很好地控制在盒子裡。因此,我們不會遇到其他地方所遇到的超支等問題。我認為部分原因是專案融資所帶來的紀律。因此,我們會尋找這一點,並且我們可能會根據我們的現金流和我們擁有的報價來尋找這一點。但這不是目前的首要任務。優先考慮的是二氧化碳和資金。

  • Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

    Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

  • I appreciate that. And then secondly, thank you for the updated comments on your infrastructure buildout in in Europe. Just wanted to clarify the status of that buildouts in the UK, Netherlands, and Germany. At one point, Air Products was talking about $2 billion for various import terminals in those countries. Can you comment on how much capital has been sunk and how much you're avoiding and what you would need to see to resume?

    我很感激。其次,感謝您對歐洲基礎建設的最新評論。只是想澄清一下英國、荷蘭和德國的建設狀況。空氣產品公司一度商談以 20 億美元收購這些國家的各種進口碼頭。您能否評論一下已經投入了多少資本、您避免了多少資本以及您需要看到什麼才能恢復?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I would say that we're basically pausing all activity there. We're just doing the formatting and a little bit of engineering on all these places until we understand exactly what the regulations will be for each country. So we have some cost that was some money that we spend that I think is a part of the overall charge that Melissa took. But it's not very significant compared to this $2 billion. And again, we are not going to spend anywhere close to this money going forward. I can't tell you right now when or where we're going to spend this money until we get clarity from the regulations from each country there.

    我想說我們基本上暫停了那裡的所有活動。我們只是在所有這些地方進行格式化和一些工程設計,直到我們確切了解每個國家的法規。所以我們有一些成本,也就是我們花的一些錢,我認為這些是梅麗莎收取的總費用的一部分。但與這20億美元相比,這並不算多。再次強調,我們今後不會再花費接近這個數字的資金。在我們了解每個國家的具體規定之前,我現在無法告訴您我們何時何地將花這筆錢。

  • Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

    Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

  • Understood. Thank you so much.

    明白了。太感謝了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

    勞倫斯‧亞歷山大,傑富瑞集團。

  • Laurence Alexander - Analyst

    Laurence Alexander - Analyst

  • Good morning. Just to come back to the merchants and the onsite businesses. Can you just characterize what return hurdles you're using and how they compare to what has been used by your products over the last, I don't know, 10, 15 years? Have you significantly changed in any way the return hurdle metric? And secondly, within the footprints, how much of the region by region and I mean, within like the local operations, how much of the footprint is actually in highly concentrated markets? And how much is in markets where you wish there was a -- you need a significant increase in density, either by yourself or competitors, to improve return on capital on a regional basis?

    早安.回到商家和現場業務。您能否描述一下您所使用的退貨門檻,以及它們與過去 10 年或 15 年您的產品所使用的退貨門檻相比如何?您是否以某種方式顯著改變了回報障礙指標?其次,在業務覆蓋範圍內,有多少區域是依區域劃分的?我的意思是,在本地營運中,有多少業務覆蓋範圍實際上是在高度集中的市場中?您希望在哪些市場中實現顯著的密度增加(無論是您自己還是競爭對手),以提高區域資本回報率?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. Let me try to answer. I don't know if I understood the question completely. But the merchant business, for us, most of our merchant business comes from large onsite plans. So basically, they are included on the calculations that we have for returning our projects. The hurdle rate is something that we don't talk publicly. And I think it's fair to say it's double digits. And on top of that, any additional risk that we have, country risk, customer risk, regulatory risk, we need to add on top of our standard or the rate that we use for, let's say, the U.S. So that's all I can say on that in terms of density.

    好的。讓我試著回答一下。我不知道我是否完全理解了這個問題。但對我們來說,商家業務大部分來自大型現場計畫。所以基本上,它們都包含在我們項目回報的計算中。我們不會公開談論最低收益率。我認為可以說它是兩位數。除此之外,我們還需要在我們的標準或我們使用的利率(比如說美國)的基礎上增加任何額外的風險,例如國家風險、客戶風險、監管風險。就密度而言,這就是我能說的全部。

  • Our business, I think, we have good presence in most of the geographies where we participate. We don't participate in a lot of geography so if you go, for example, in Asia, you're going to see that 90% of our businesses in three countries in China, Korea, and Taiwan. And the business in the U.S. and in Europe, we have two very large competitors that are based there, so it's a little more complicated. But where we operate, we have good density. And I don't think we have any -- we're always going to have a place here and that we would like to have more. But it's not a main issue for us today.

    我認為,我們的業務在我們參與的大多數地區都有良好的表現。我們的業務涉及的地理範圍並不廣,所以如果你去亞洲,你會發現我們 90% 的業務集中在中國、韓國和台灣三個國家。在美國和歐洲的業務中,我們有兩個非常大的競爭對手,所以情況有點複雜。但在我們經營的地方,密度很高。我不認為我們有任何——我們總是會在這裡有一席之地,而且我們希望擁有更多。但這不是我們今天的主要問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Laurent Favre, BNP.

    法國國家銀行的洛朗法夫爾。

  • Laurent Favre - Analyst

    Laurent Favre - Analyst

  • Good morning. You mentioned when you talked about the mountain improvement, headcount reduction, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about what you're going to do with the organization incentivization as well, management structure, et cetera. So for instance, are you keeping the 12-person board, management board that was announced last summer? Thank you.

    早安.您提到,當您談到山區改善、裁員時,我想知道您是否可以再多談談您將如何處理組織激勵、管理結構等。舉例來說,您是否會保留去年夏天宣布的 12 人董事會、管理委員會?謝謝。

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you much. I know in Europe the term management board has a very different meaning than it has in America. I was surprised with that as well. It doesn't have a legal meaning that has in Europe. I need to think a little bit about that. How we call the that in the organization and to avoid complications on people, especially people in Europe looking at this and thinking it's like a management board in Europe which is not. So overall, I have to say that the message that we have here is not an easy message for our employees. I think our people are smart people. They understand that if today we're spending $4 billion in capital above the maintenance capital projects and we're going to go down to 1% to 1.5%, of course, we're going to need to to reduce and and but I think that. In general, the employees that I talked, to in our products that have 20-30 years in the company. They understand that we are in a rough patch here. And in general support, the measures. And they understand that we need to do some of these movements in order to have the company to bring back the strength of the company and avoid even further cuts in the future. So overall, I think, I expect that to be well-understood by the employees. And in terms of the management of the company, I'm still working with the original group that we have here. Of course, we're going to have changes here and there like you have in any business, but there are no drastic changes or big restructures to announce.

    非常感謝。我知道在歐洲,「管理委員會」一詞的意思與在美國有很大不同。我對此也感到驚訝。它不具有歐洲所具有的法律意義。我需要稍微考慮一下這個。我們如何在組織中稱呼它,並避免給人們帶來麻煩,特別是歐洲人看到它並認為它就像歐洲的管理委員會,但事實並非如此。所以總的來說,我必須說,我們在這裡傳達的訊息對我們的員工來說並不是一個容易接受的訊息。我認為我們的人民是聰明人。他們明白,如果今天我們在維護資本項目上花費了 40 億美元的資本,而我們要將其降至 1% 到 1.5%,當然,我們需要減少,但我認為。整體來說,我交談過的員工都在我們公司工作了 20 到 30 年。他們知道我們現在正處於困境。並普遍支持這些措施。他們明白,我們需要採取一些舉措,讓公司恢復實力,避免未來進一步削減開支。所以總的來說,我認為我希望員工能夠充分理解這一點。在公司管理方面,我仍與我們原來的團隊合作。當然,就像任何企業一樣,我們也會做出一些改變,但我們不會宣布任何重大改變或重大重組。

  • Laurent Favre - Analyst

    Laurent Favre - Analyst

  • Thank you. And on the capital location side, apart from the (inaudible) which I assume you hope to get some proceeds for, are you considering any disposal for certain business lines or certain countries?

    謝謝。在資本位置方面,除了(聽不清楚)我假設您希望獲得一些收益之外,您是否考慮對某些業務線或某些國家進行處置?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You're talking about divesting of countries and operations, is that -- yeah. No. The short answer would be no. I would say that we are in industrial gas business and whenever there is a business, we're going to try to be there. That doesn't mean that if you have a very small position in some geography, that doesn't make it a lot of sense for you to be there that you're not going to consider that. But nothing major, nothing that -- like, I've seen some considerations before from their products like in South Korea, things like that. We're definitely not going to exit any of these positions in their products.

    您說的是剝離國家和業務,是嗎——是的。不。簡短的回答是「不」。我想說的是,我們從事的是工業氣體業務,只要有業務,我們就會盡力去做。這並不意味著如果你在某個地區佔有很小的份額,那麼你在那裡駐紮就沒有多大意義,你不會考慮這一點。但沒有什麼大不了的,也沒有什麼——就像,我之前在韓國的產品中看到過一些考慮,諸如此類的事情。我們絕對不會退出其產品中的任何職位。

  • Laurent Favre - Analyst

    Laurent Favre - Analyst

  • All right. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的麥克·西森。

  • Michael Sison - Analyst

    Michael Sison - Analyst

  • Good morning, Eduardo. One quick question on the $5 billion of underperforming asset products. You used to talk about generating roughly 15% on every dollar spent for EIA. About 10% on every dollar for EBIT, implying that depreciation is around 5%. Is that what you think the $5 billion will generate around a 5% or mid-single-digit return? And then if that formula is maybe different than what you think, what do you think the return should be on every capital that Air Products spends on future projects? Thank you.

    早安,愛德華多。關於 50 億美元表現不佳的資產產品的一個簡單的問題。您曾經說過,用於 EIA 的每一美元都能產生大約 15% 的收益。每美元息稅前利潤約為 10%,這意味著折舊約為 5%。您認為這 50 億美元能帶來 5% 左右或中等個位數的回報嗎?那麼,如果這個公式可能與您想像的不同,您認為空氣產品公司在未來專案上花費的每一筆資本的回報應該是多少?謝謝。

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. Yeah, I understand the math. I think it's a very simplified version. 5% means that you're depreciating 20 years. In some cases we do shorter than that. We have an accounting obligation to depreciate, according to the life of the agreement. So it will be what it will be on each case. And again, it's one of these -- when we compete for these projects, it's really a tough fight. And it's about the CapEx that you have, the efficiency that you have in your plans, the O&M cost, and it's about your expected IRR. So obviously, we try to avoid and make comments about that publicly. We're not going to be in the range of ROC that we want to be if, every project comes at, let's say, 10%, IRR. So we need projects to come higher than that. But that's all I can say at this point. We're not going to talk about publicly what our rates are because that's a sensitive information from a competitive point of view.

    好的。是的,我懂數學。我認為這是一個非常簡化的版本。 5% 意味著折舊 20 年。在某些情況下,我們會做得更短。根據協議期限,我們有會計義務進行折舊。所以,每個案例都會有相對應的結果。再說一次,當我們競爭這些項目時,這確實是一場艱苦的戰鬥。它與您的資本支出、您的計劃效率、營運和維護成本以及您的預期內部收益率有關。因此,顯然,我們試圖避免公開對此發表評論。如果每個專案的 IRR 都為 10%,那麼我們的 ROC 就不會達到我們想要的範圍。因此,我們需要的項目要比這更高。但目前我只能說這麼多。我們不會公開談論我們的費率,因為從競爭的角度來看這是一個敏感資訊。

  • Michael Sison - Analyst

    Michael Sison - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Roberts, Mizuho.

    瑞穗的約翰羅伯茲。

  • John Roberts - Analyst

    John Roberts - Analyst

  • Thank you. And welcome as well. Do you expect any material recovery on what's already been spent in Louisiana for CCS and ammonia? And would that recovery likely be rolled into a favorable contract for CCS or a hydrogen uptake agreement?

    謝謝。也歡迎你。您是否預計路易斯安那州在 CCS 和氨方面的投入會有所回升?這種復甦是否可能轉化為對 CCS 或氫氣吸收協議有利的合約?

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Again, we are negotiating that. We cannot make a lot of comments on that. I think of course on the ammonia side, that makes makes all the sense in the world. On the CO2 side, there are some other options that we may look at. But suddenly, the sites that we have and the work we've done on the CO2 side, it has value. And it can be monetized, within this project or as a standalone operation. So I think that's our goal in both cases.

    再次強調,我們正在就此進行談判。對此我們無法發表太多評論。我認為,從氨的角度來看,這當然是完全合理的。在二氧化碳方面,我們可以考慮一些其他選擇。但突然之間,我們擁有的站點和我們在二氧化碳方面所做的工作變得有價值了。它可以在本項目內或作為獨立操作實現貨幣化。所以我認為這就是我們在兩種情況下的目標。

  • John Roberts - Analyst

    John Roberts - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'll turn it back over to Eduardo for any closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把發言權交還給愛德華多,請他做最後的總結發言。

  • Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eduardo Menezes - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you for attending the call and have a safe day. I look forward to seeing you in the next quarter.

    感謝您參加電話會議並祝您有平安的一天。我期待下個季度與您見面。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。