Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Third Quarter 2024 Results Call. Today's conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加 Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. 2024 年第三季業績電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製。

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stephen Lyons, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係部門的 Stephen Lyons 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the third quarter. I'm joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer; and Stefan Schellinger, AMP's Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，歡迎大家。感謝您今天參加 Ardagh Metal Packaging 2024 年第三季財報電話會議，該會議是在 AMP 早前發布第三季財報之後召開的。今天與我一起參加的是 AMP 執行長 Oliver Graham；以及 AMP 財務長 Stefan Schellinger。

Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. AMP's earnings release and related materials for the third quarter can be found on the AMP's website at ir.ardaghmetalpackaging.com. Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and includes use of non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release.

在回答您的問題之前，我們將首先就 AMP 的性能和前景做一些介紹性的評論。AMP 第三季的收益報告和相關資料可以在 AMP 網站 ir.ardaghmetalpackaging.com 上找到。今天的言論將包括某些前瞻性陳述，並包括使用非國際財務報告準則的財務指標。實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。請查看 AMP 收益報告中前瞻性聲明免責聲明和非國際財務報告準則財務指標與國際財務報告準則財務指標的調節的詳細資訊。

I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

現在我將電話轉給奧利佛·葛拉漢。

Thanks, Stephen. AMP recorded a strong business performance in the third quarter and delivered another set of results ahead of guidance, with both segments performing strongly. Global beverage shipments grew by 2% in the quarter versus the prior year, with revenue broadly unchanged, while adjusted EBITDA grew by 15% with strong double-digit growth across both segments. This strong growth in adjusted EBITDA reflects Europe's continued margin normalization post the continent's energy crisis and with strong input cost management, and in the Americas, improved manufacturing performance and a favorable volume mix impact.

謝謝，史蒂芬。AMP 在第三季取得了強勁的業務表現，並再次取得了超乎預期的業績，兩個部門均表現強勁。本季全球飲料出貨量較上年同期成長 2%，營收基本保持不變，而調整後的 EBITDA 成長 15%，兩個部門均實現強勁的兩位數成長。調整後 EBITDA 的強勁成長反映了歐洲大陸在能源危機後利潤率持續正常化，以及強有力的投入成本管理，以及美洲製造績效的提高和有利的銷售組合影響。

We're encouraged by the strength of beverage can demand in the context of Brazilian beverage consumption trends across each of our markets during the quarter. We expect that the beverage can will continue to outperform other packaging types, supported by customer innovation and the can's positive credentials regarding circularity and decarbonization. Our outperformance through the year versus initial expectations, particularly in Europe, gives us the confidence to further improve our full year guidance for adjusted EBITDA to $650 million to $660 million.

在本季度，從巴西各市場飲料消費趨勢來看，飲料罐需求強勁，這令我們感到鼓舞。我們預計，在客戶創新和飲料罐在循環性和脫碳方面的積極信譽的支持下，飲料罐的表現將繼續優於其他包裝類型。我們全年的表現超出了最初的預期，特別是在歐洲，這使我們有信心進一步提高全年調整後 EBITDA 預期至 6.5 億美元至 6.6 億美元。

We continue to progress our sustainability agenda, and we recently concluded a large-scale virtual Power Purchase Agreement in Portugal commencing in 2026, which will represent approximately half of AMP Europe's continental energy consumption. This represents a major step towards the achievement of our 100% renewable energy target for 2030. And also in this quarter, alongside other industry stakeholders, we were one of the two cosponsors of a two-day summit to advance how the aluminum beverage can value chain can enhance its leadership on key sustainability issues such as decarbonization pathways and recycled content measurement.

我們繼續推動永續發展議程，最近我們在葡萄牙達成了一項大規模虛擬購電協議，該協議將於 2026 年生效，這將佔 AMP 歐洲大陸能源消耗的約一半。這是我們朝著實現2030年100%再生能源目標邁出的重要一步。此外，在本季度，我們與其他行業利益相關者一起，成為為期兩天的峰會的兩個共同提案國之一，旨在探討鋁飲料罐價值鏈如何在脫碳途徑和再生內容測量等關鍵可持續發展問題上增強其領導地位。

If we turn to AMP's results by segment. Firstly, in Europe, third quarter revenue increased by 2% to $572 million compared with the same period in 2023, principally due to the pass-through of higher input costs to our customers. We saw solid growth in shipments of over 2% for the quarter on the prior year in the context of a strong end market. Growth is broad-based both by product and by geography as customers maintain increased focus on volumes, favor the can in their pack mix and rebuild inventory level.

如果我們轉向按細分市場的 AMP 結果。首先，在歐洲，第三季營收與 2023 年同期相比成長 2% 至 5.72 億美元，這主要是由於將更高的投入成本轉嫁給我們的客戶。在終端市場強勁的背景下，本季的出貨量較上年同期穩定成長了 2% 以上。由於客戶越來越關注銷量、青睞罐裝包裝並重建庫存水平，因此產品和地理均出現了廣泛的增長。

Our own shipment performance was slightly held back by short-term capacity constraints related to certain cabin sizes, particularly after customers were cautious on inventory build in the first part of the year. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 18% to $79 million due to favorable volume/mix and stronger input cost recovery, partly offset by higher operating costs due to additional manufacturing complexity.

由於某些客艙尺寸相關的短期容量限制，我們自己的出貨量表現略有下降，特別是在今年上半年客戶對庫存建設持謹慎態度之後。歐洲第三季調整後 EBITDA 成長 18%，達到 7,900 萬美元，得益於有利的銷售/產品組合和更強勁的投入成本回收，但製造複雜性增加導致的營運成本上升部分抵消了這一影響。

We're encouraged by the strong end market through the summer period. This, together with a strong start to Q4, gives us confidence to increase our expectations for shipments growth for our European business to 3% to 4% for the year overall from our prior guide of low single-digit growth. The uncertain nature of the recovery in Europe has informed our initial guidance range for overall adjusted EBITDA for the year. Our confidence in the region's recovery underpins our improved overall full year outlook for the group.

我們對夏季強勁的終端市場感到鼓舞。這一結果加上第四季度的強勁開局，讓我們有信心將歐洲業務全年出貨量成長預期從先前預測的低個位數成長提高到 3% 至 4%。歐洲經濟復甦的不確定性決定了我們對今年整體調整後 EBITDA 的初步預期範圍。我們對該地區經濟復甦的信心支撐了我們對集團全年整體前景的改善。

Turning to the Americas. Revenue in the third quarter increased by 1% to $741 million, which reflected favorable volume/mix effects and the pass-through of higher input cost to customers. Adjusted EBITDA in the Americas increased strongly by 13% to $117 million, with growth in both regions, which was driven by favorable volume/mix effects and lower operating costs, including a stronger manufacturing performance and improved fixed cost absorption.

轉向美洲。第三季營收成長 1% 至 7.41 億美元，反映出有利的銷售/產品組合效應以及將更高的投入成本轉嫁給客戶。美洲地區調整後 EBITDA 強勁成長 13%，達到 1.17 億美元，兩個地區均實現成長，這得益於有利的銷售/產品組合效應和較低的營運成本，包括更強勁的製造業績和更好的固定成本吸收。

In North America, shipments grew by 1% for the quarter, in line with our estimate for the market despite energy category softness and against a strong prior year comparable. In the quarter, we saw a solid performance in carbonated soft drinks and sparkling waters, which combined, represent over half of our portfolio. We also saw growth in beer, reflecting our contracted new volumes. Overall, this attractive portfolio mix underpins our outperformance year-to-date with shipments growth of 5% versus modest industry growth.

在北美，本季出貨量成長了 1%，儘管能源類別表現疲軟，且與去年同期的強勁表現相比，成長幅度與我們對市場的預期一致。本季度，碳酸軟性飲料和氣泡水錶現穩健，這兩類產品合計占我們產品組合的一半以上。我們的啤酒銷售也出現了成長，這反映了我們簽訂的新增銷售量。總體而言，這種具有吸引力的投資組合支撐了我們今年迄今的優異表現，在行業增速溫和的情況下，出貨量增長了 5%。

The current softness in the energy category, which represents a low teens percentage of our North American portfolio, is currently restraining our growth and will result in some weakness in the fourth quarter. We're confident in the medium-term outlook for this well-established category.

當前能源類別的疲軟（占我們北美投資組合的百分之十幾）正在限制我們的成長，並將導致第四季出現一些疲軟。我們對這一成熟類別的中期前景充滿信心。

In Brazil, third quarter beverage can shipments increased by 1% against the backdrop of a very strong market. We enjoyed strong growth across the majority of our customer base, but were impacted by specific customer filling location mix towards the end of the quarter. Volume/mix benefited from the timing event sales as a result of customers preemptively securing their supply chain for the summer season. The Brazilian can market continues to grow very strongly, driven by a supportive macroeconomic environment as well as the pack mix shift back to one-way packaging. Industry growth for the year overall looks to be on track for growth at least in the order of a high single-digit percentage.

在巴西，在市場非常強勁的背景下，第三季飲料罐出貨量成長了 1%。我們的大多數客戶群都實現了強勁增長，但在本季度末受到了特定客戶填充地點組合的影響。由於客戶預先確保了夏季的供應鏈，因此銷售/產品組合受益於定時活動銷售。受有利的宏觀經濟環境以及包裝組合轉向單向包裝的推動，巴西罐頭市場持續強勁成長。今年的產業成長整體看來至少將達到高個位數百分比的成長軌道。

We expect to record a decline in shipments in the fourth quarter, reflecting some continuation of customer [inflation] mix effects, plus the strong prior year performance where shipments grew by 34%. We now expect shipments growth in the Americas in the order of a low single-digit percentage for 2024.

我們預計第四季度出貨量將出現下降，這反映了客戶（通膨）組合效應的持續，以及去年出貨量成長 34% 的強勁表​​現。我們現在預計 2024 年美洲的出貨量成長率將達到個位數的低百分比。

I'll hand to Stefan, our new CFO, who joined us in September. He'll talk you through our financial position before I finish with some concluding remarks.

我將把電話交給 Stefan，他是我們新的財務官，他於九月加入我們。在我發表總結性發言之前，他將向你們介紹我們的財務狀況。

Thank you, Oli, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. I'm excited to have joined AMP. The business operates in an attractive market. And based on the time I spent in the business so far, I think the company is well positioned to drive further growth, particularly given our well-invested manufacturing footprint and our strong customer relationships. I have the opportunity to meet with several analysts and investors, and I'm looking forward to the continued engagement.

謝謝你，奧利，大家早安，下午好。我很高興加入 AMP。該企業在一個具有吸引力的市場中運作。根據我迄今為止在該行業工作的時間，我認為該公司已準備好推動進一步成長，尤其是考慮到我們投入充足的製造基地和牢固的客戶關係。我有機會與多位分析師和投資者會面，我期待繼續合作。

So now let me comment briefly on AMP's financial position. Our adjusted free cash flow generation for the quarter of $115 million was a strong performance driven by EBITDA growth and a tight focus on cash management. This included a modest net working capital inflow of $10 million and total CapEx of $34 million, which included $60 million of growth CapEx. We now expect growth CapEx for 2024 to below $100 million. As a result of our free cash flow generation and EBITDA growth, we reduced our net leverage ratio from 5.8 times at the end of Q2 to 5.6 times at the end of the third quarter, and we expect a further reduction at year-end to the low 5s territory, supported by the usual seasonality of working capital inflows and anticipated CapEx of slightly over $200 million, including growth CapEx.

現在讓我簡單評論一下 AMP 的財務狀況。本季度，我們調整後的自由現金流產生量為 1.15 億美元，這一強勁表現得益於 EBITDA 成長和對現金管理的高度關注。其中包括 1,000 萬美元的適度淨營運資本流入和 3,400 萬美元的總資本支出，其中包括 6,000 萬美元的成長資本支出。我們現在預計 2024 年的成長資本支出將低於 1 億美元。由於我們的自由現金流產生和 EBITDA 增長，我們將淨槓桿率從第二季度末的 5.8 倍降低到第三季度末的 5.6 倍，並且我們預計到年底將進一步降低至 5% 的低位，這得益於營運資金流入的通常季節性以及預期資本支出略高於 2 億美元（包括增長資本支出）。

We ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $707 million, an increase from $405 million at the end of the second quarter. In the quarter, we completed and drew down the previously announced $300 million term loan and we used the proceeds to pay down our global asset-based loan facility. So this financing is neutral to net leverage, but strengthens the overall liquidity position of the company. As previously indicated, the new term loan has a five-year maturity and is secured on a par basis alongside our senior secured green notes. The terms of the loan caps dividend payments at the current levels.

本季末，我們的流動資金狀況為 7.07 億美元，高於第二季末的 4.05 億美元。本季度，我們完成並提取了先前宣布的 3 億美元定期貸款，並利用所得款項償還了我們的全球資產抵押貸款。因此，這筆融資對淨槓桿率沒有影響，但增強了公司的整體流動性狀況。如前所述，新的定期貸款期限為五年，並與我們的優先擔保綠色票據一起按面值擔保。貸款條款將股息支付限制在當前水準。

At the beginning of the fourth quarter, we have entered into a BRL 500 million or approximately $90 million local currency credit facility in Brazil which further deepens AMP's access to liquidity. Overall, we now expect to end the current year with a very strong liquidity position of approximately $1 billion. We have today announced our quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share to be paid in December, in line with our guidance and our capital allocation policy, which remains unchanged.

在第四季初，我們在巴西簽訂了 5 億雷亞爾或約 9,000 萬美元當地貨幣信貸協議，這進一步加深了 AMP 的流動性管道。總體而言，我們預計今年年底的流動性狀況將非常強勁，約為 10 億美元。我們今天宣布，將於 12 月支付每股 0.10 美元的季度股息，這符合我們的指導方針和資本配置政策，該政策保持不變。

With that, I'll hand it back to Oli.

說完這些，我就交還給奧利。

Thanks, Stefan. So before moving to take your questions, just to recap on AMP's performance and our key messages today. Firstly, our adjusted EBITDA growth was ahead of guidance for a third successive quarter, with both segments delivering double-digit year-over-year growth and global shipments growing by 2%. Secondly, our strong year-to-date performance, particularly in Europe, gives us confidence to improve our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $650 million to $660 million. And finally, our actions on liquidity and strong cash flow performance resulted in liquidity of around $0.7 billion in the quarter, which we expect to increase to $1 billion in the fourth quarter.

謝謝，史蒂芬。因此，在回答你們的問題之前，我們先來回顧一下 AMP 的表現和我們今天的關鍵訊息。首先，我們的調整後 EBITDA 成長連續第三個季度超出預期，兩個部門均實現兩位數的年增長，全球出貨量增長 2%。其次，我們今年迄今的強勁表現，尤其是在歐洲，使我們有信心將全年調整後 EBITDA 預期範圍提高至 6.5 億美元至 6.6 億美元。最後，我們在流動性和強勁現金流表現方面的行動導致本季流動性約為 7 億美元，我們預計第四季將增加到 10 億美元。

Our full year EBITDA guidance is underpinned by global shipments growth expectation of 2% to 3% and stronger input cost recovery. In terms of guidance for the fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be in the order of $142 million to $152 million.

我們對全年 EBITDA 的預期受到 2% 至 3% 的全球出貨量成長預期和更強勁的投入成本回收的支持。就第四季的預期而言，調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 1.42 億美元至 1.52 億美元之間。

Having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to take any questions that you may have.

在做完這些開場白後，我們現在將開始回答大家可能提出的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

(操作員指示) 花旗銀行，Anthony Pettinari。

In terms of the Americas volume outlook, I think last quarter, you talked about low single digit to mid-single digit for the year, and maybe that's now closer to low single digit. Just want to make sure if that's right? Is the primary driver there the weakness in US energy? I know you also referenced a customer issue in Brazil. Just wondering, from a big picture perspective, what's driving that delta?

就美洲地區的銷售前景而言，我認為上個季度您談到了今年的低個位數到中個位數，也許現在更接近低個位數。只是想確認一下是否正確？主要驅動因素是美國能源疲軟嗎？我知道您也提到了巴西的客戶問題。只是想知道，從宏觀角度來看，是什麼導致了這種差異？

Yes. So I think it's right to say we're calling down our volume expectation in the Americas. As Europe has strengthened, we do have the pockets of weakness in the Americas. The first is the energy category, and some of the energy customer mix in North America, where we had a further drag in Q3, and we do forecast that drag persisting through Q4.

是的。因此我認為，我們下調美洲地區的銷售預期是正確的。隨著歐洲實力的增強，美洲地區卻存在一些薄弱之處。首先是能源類別，以及北美的一些能源客戶結構，我們在第三季度受到了進一步的拖累，我們預測這種拖累將持續到第四季度。

And then the second is -- I mentioned in the remarks, we had a specific customer and actually a specific filling location issue in Brazil. So a customer took a particular on commercial position in the market, increased price, reduced volume, and that meant that one of the breweries in particular took some downtime. And that affected us, as that was a brewery we serve, and that happened towards the end of the quarter, and we still see that persisting into Q4. So yes, it's both those factors that have led us to call down the expectation for the full year on Americas volumes.

然後第二個是 - 我在評論中提到，我們有一個特定的客戶，實際上在巴西有一個特定的填充地點問題。因此，客戶在市場上採取了特定的商業立場，提高了價格，減少了產量，這意味著其中一個特定的啤酒廠停產了。這對我們產生了影響，因為那是我們服務的啤酒廠，而且這件事發生在本季末，我們仍然認為這種情況會持續到第四季。所以是的，這兩個因素導致我們下調了對美洲全年銷售的預期。

Got it. Got it. And then just shifting to Europe. You've had a very strong year. And as you kind of look back on the year, like 2024, I guess you had somewhat easier comps. You had the Euro, the Olympics. Understanding you're not giving guidance for '25, but can you just talk about some of the drivers of European bev can demand? And as we think about the next few years, how much of that is driven by maybe substrate share shift, maybe new product categories? I'm just trying to understand maybe the sort of long-term or midterm sustainability of the real strength that you and others have seen in European bev cans?

知道了。知道了。然後轉移到歐洲。這是你們非常輝煌的一年。當你回顧這一年，例如 2024 年時，我想你會有一些更輕鬆的比較。你舉辦了歐洲盃、奧運。我理解您沒有給出 25 年的指導，但您能談談歐洲飲料需求的一些驅動因素嗎？而當我們思考未來幾年時，其中有多少是由基材份額轉移或新的產品類別所推動的？我只是想知道您和其他人看到的歐洲飲料罐的真正實力是否具有長期或中期可持續性？

No, sure. So I think as you know, Anthony, Europe has always been a growth market in beverage cans for the last 20, 30 years. We've seen -- easily an average 2% to 3% going into the pandemic, higher than that, as we started to see increased packing substitution. We have the recovery in Germany long-term impacts there. So I think we're seeing that trend normalize although the consumer is not in great shape, I think they're stabilizing a bit. And we definitely made gains this year in all of our markets against both plastics and glass packaging in Europe.

不，當然。所以我認為，如你所知，安東尼，過去二三十年來，歐洲一直是飲料罐的成長市場。我們已經看到——在疫情爆發時，平均漲幅很容易就達到了 2% 到 3%，而且隨著我們開始看到包裝替代品的增加，這一數字還會更高。我們對德國經濟復甦產生了長期影響。因此，我認為我們看到趨勢正在正常化，儘管消費者的狀況不太好，但我認為他們正在穩定一點。今年，我們在歐洲所有市場上的塑膠和玻璃包裝都取得了明顯的成長。

So yes, we look forward into '25 and beyond with a lot of confidence, I think, for the growth profile of Europe. I think the factors that are in place this year will continue to be in place in terms of pack mix, in terms of the Germany recovery, long-term recovery. And then I think we also would expect to see some strengthening on the consumer side as inflation moderates and interest rates come down. So yes, we believe we left at least 1 to 2 points of growth on the table this year in the quarter due to constraints we had on certain sizes that were particularly growing strongly in the market and where we had less capacity and also on the back of early muted inventory build by our customers in the first part of the year. So we know our number could have been better. And yes, we're looking forward into 2025 with a lot of confidence for the growth of Europe.

所以是的，我認為，我們對25年及以後歐洲的成長前景充滿信心。我認為，就包裝組合、德國復甦和長期復甦而言，今年存在的因素將繼續存在。然後我認為，隨著通膨緩和、利率下降，我們還有望看到消費方面的一些增強。所以是的，我們認為，今年本季我們至少損失了 1 到 2 個百分點的成長，這是由於我們對市場上某些成長尤為強勁的規模的限制以及我們的產能較低，同時也受到我們客戶上半年早期庫存積累較少的影響。所以我們知道我們的數字可以更好。是的，我們對 2025 年歐洲的發展充滿信心。

Okay. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的。這非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。

Cashen Keeler, Bank of America.

美國銀行的卡森‧基勒 (Cashen Keeler)。

I guess going off the last question, as you look out to '25, directionally, as you sit here today, I guess, what would you expect in terms of market growth in each of your regions and maybe some of the drivers behind that? And then how would you expect Ardagh to perhaps perform against that?

我想回到最後一個問題，當您今天坐在這裡展望25年時，從方向上看，您對每個地區的市場成長有何預期，以及背後的一些驅動因素是什麼？那麼你認為 Ardagh 的表現會是如何呢？

Sure. Hi, Cashen. So look, I think as I said on Europe, I mean it was traditionally at least a 2% to 3% market. It can easily be in that range or a bit ahead of that range if the consumer improves as we go into '25, which I think is a reasonable prospect. And with the pack mix shift that we're seeing. So I think that's a very reasonable place to be, and we'd expect ourselves to be in line with that market. We're very broadly based in Europe. Mostly Northern, but with Southern representation, pretty balanced, beer and soft drinks. So typically, we're around the market in Europe.

當然。你好，Cashen。所以，我認為正如我在歐洲所說的那樣，我的意思是它傳統上至少是一個 2% 到 3% 的市場。如果隨著我們進入25年，消費者狀況有所改善，它很容易就進入這個範圍，或略高於這個範圍，我認為這是一個合理的前景。並且我們看到了包裝混合的變化。所以我認為這是非常合理的，我們希望自己能夠與該市場保持一致。我們在歐洲的業務範圍非常廣泛。主要是北方，但也有南方的代表，相當均衡，有啤酒和軟性飲料。通常情況下，我們都在歐洲市場。

Then I think if you turn to North America, we see that as a low singles market. I think there's still decent potential upside in North America from pack mix shift again with the amount of innovation that's going into the can with some of the pressures on other substrates. So we do see that as -- should be a growth market. We think it's in the 1%, 1.5% this year. And it could tick up above that. In which case, we're talking a $120 billion can market. So I think I've said it before, but if you get into the 2% to 3% range, you need a new can plant every year.

那麼我認為如果你轉向北美，我們會發現那裡是一個低單身市場。我認為，隨著包裝組合轉變，隨著大量創新進入北美市場以及其他基質面臨的一些壓力，北美市場仍然具有相當大的潛在上升空間。所以我們確實認為這應該是一個成長型市場。我們認為今年的增幅在 1% 到 1.5% 之間。而且它可能會高於這個水平。在這種情況下，我們談論的是一個價值 1200 億美元的罐頭市場。所以我想我之前說過，但如果你進入 2% 到 3% 的範圍，你每年都需要種植一棵新的罐子植物。

So again, we'd expect ourselves to be broadly in line with -- largely constructive, I think, about the recovery of the energy category. It's taken a bit of a dip this year after some very strong growth the last couple of years. There's very strong players in that category, strong overall track record of delivery -- of innovation delivery over the years. We see certainly at retail, significant shelf space increasingly dedicated to the energy category.

因此，我們再次期望自己能夠大體上與能源類別的復甦保持一致——我認為，這在很大程度上是建設性的。在經歷了過去幾年的強勁增長之後，今年有所下滑。這一類別中有很多實力雄厚的參與者，多年來，他們在創新交付方面有著整體出色的記錄。我們確實看到，在零售業中，大量的貨架空間越來越多地用於能源類別。

So yes, we'd expect the market to be in that low singles and broadly, we'll expect again ourselves to be in line. We don't see in our business today, any particular contractual gains relative to the ones we've seen in the last few years. And then Brazil, obviously, I mean, unbelievable growth this year. We're still in double-digit territory year-to-date. I mean we mentioned we see a high singles for the year, but it could potentially be better, but that certainly seems pretty likely. And we see with Brazil that it goes through these dips occasionally. But if you look back 30 years after those kind of dips, you get a few years of very strong growth, and that's what we'd hope for. So I mean, I think mid-single digits, we got as a relatively conservative estimate for Brazil in 2025.

所以是的，我們預計市場將處於低位，總體而言，我們再次預計自己將處於這一水平。與過去幾年相比，我們今天的業務並沒有帶來任何特殊的合約收益。然後是巴西，顯然，我的意思是，今年的成長令人難以置信。今年迄今，我們的成長率仍達兩位數。我的意思是，我們提到過，今年的單打數量會很高，但可能會更好，但這似乎很有可能。我們看到巴西偶爾也會經歷這樣的低潮。但如果你回顧這些低谷之後的 30 年，你會發現有幾年非常強勁的成長，這正是我們所希望的。所以我的意思是，我認為中等個位數，這是我們對 2025 年巴西的一個相對保守的估計。

And then in terms of our growth, I think we'll still be a little bit cautious on that relative to the market just because -- and our peers have talked about this. It is very related to the commercial strategies of the big brewers, of which they are a relatively small number. We don't participate on the soft drink side of the house. It's also been very strong this year. But depending on the commercial strategies of our customers, you can see higher or lower growth. As I said in the remarks, we've had double-digit growth across most of our portfolio, but we have had one area of weakness. So we're probably pinning ourselves at that sort of market level at the moment, maybe a tick or two below just to be cautious.

就我們的成長而言，我認為我們仍會對此保持些許謹慎，相對於市場而言，因為我們的同行也談論過這個問題。這與大型啤酒製造商的商業策略息息相關，而大型啤酒製造商的數量相對較少。我們不參與這家飯店的軟性飲料業務。今年它也表現得非常強勁。但根據我們客戶的商業策略，您可能會看到更高或更低的成長。正如我在評論中所說，我們的大部分投資組合都實現了兩位數的成長，但有一個領域比較薄弱。因此，我們目前可能將自己定位在那種市場水平，或許比其低一兩個點，只是為了謹慎起見。

But overall -- and again, I've said this before during the year, if you've taken these market trends on January 1, we would have definitely taken them. I think there's been excellent strength through all of our markets and also increasing tightness in our markets from a supply perspective in the season or uncertain sizes or certain regions, and that's obviously all very instructive for our business.

但總體而言——我今年早些時候就說過，如果你在 1 月 1 日就抓住了這些市場趨勢，我們肯定會抓住它們。我認為，我們所有市場都表現出色，而且從季節、不確定的規模或某些地區的供應角度來看，我們市場的緊張程度也在增加，這顯然對我們的業務非常有指導意義。

Got it. Okay. And then if I could just sneak in two more. On CapEx, I understand you called out that growth CapEx will be lower than the $100 million next year. So I guess, first on that, how long do you think you can grow into your current network without considering more growth CapEx? And then additionally, on the same token, can you just help us further understand your path on deleveraging from here and when you would expect to achieve some of the targeted leverage range?

知道了。好的。然後如果我能再偷偷地放進去兩個的話。關於資本支出，我了解到您曾提到明年成長資本支出將低於 1 億美元。所以我想，首先，您認為在不考慮更多成長資本支出的情況下，您目前的網路可以發展多久？另外，同樣，您能否幫助我們進一步了解您今後的去槓桿路徑，以及您預計何時能夠實現目標槓桿範圍？

Sure, yes. I'll kick that off and then pass to Stefan. So I think we're broadly in the same as we were earlier in the year, that we've got a year or two of growth into the existing capacity. Obviously, we do sometimes have to spend to adjust the networks to different regional or seismic changes as we did in the US this year. And we see a couple of those kind of projects to, again, align ourselves with the growth, particularly in Europe, where we were not perfectly aligned this year. But at the moment, from an overall capacity point of view and with the continued ramp-up of a couple of projects, again, particularly in Europe, we think on current market trends, we could go for another year or two without any significant additional growth capital. I'll pass the deleveraging question over to Stefan.

當然，是的。我將啟動它然後傳遞給史蒂芬。因此，我認為我們與今年稍早的情況大致相同，即在現有產能的基礎上再成長一兩年。顯然，有時我們確實需要花錢來調整網路以適應不同的區域或地震變化，就像我們今年在美國所做的那樣。我們看到有幾個這樣的項目，再次與成長保持一致，特別是在歐洲，今年我們並沒有完全適應。但目前，從整體產能角度來看，隨著幾個項目的持續推進，特別是在歐洲，我們認為，按照目前的市場趨勢，我們可能還需要再過一兩年才需要任何顯著的額外成長資本。我將把去槓桿問題轉交給史蒂芬。

Yes. I think the delevering, I think, comes from various sources. I think first and foremost, I think organic growth and EBITDA growth that translates into cash flow. We talked about the CapEx side of things, where we are sort of expecting lower BGI growth. And I think these are definitely two of the major contributors. So I think -- and then obviously, sort of the brilliant basics as it comes to running a business sort of on the working capital side, expecting sort of a small inflow for the full year and continue to work on that.

是的。我認為去槓桿有多種原因。我認為首先，有機成長和 EBITDA 成長會轉化為現金流。我們討論了資本支出方面的事宜，我們預期 BGI 的成長會較低。我認為這絕對是其中兩個主要因素。所以我認為——顯然，在經營企業時，在營運資本方面，這是一種非常好的基本原則，預計全年會有少量的資金流入，並繼續為此努力。

So I think the market growth is sort of kind of our own position in the market and our own organic growth, I think, in combination with some other cash flow levers, should continue to drive us to a deleveraging profile.

因此，我認為市場成長在某種程度上代表了我們在市場中的地位，而我們自身的有機成長，加上其他一些現金流槓桿，應該會繼續推動我們去槓桿化。

(Operator Instructions) Josh Spector, UBS.

(操作員指示) Josh Spector，瑞銀。

I wanted to just follow up on some of the comments in Europe. So I think the past couple of quarters, you talked about some production constraints due to kind of mix and pack size maybe being out of sync with where you had capacity. I'm more curious, does that demand or volumes get lost? So does that go to another competitor because you can't fill that? Is that something you catch up on in the following quarter or the following year? Just -- can you walk through some of those dynamics, please?

我只是想跟進歐洲的一些評論。所以我認為在過去幾個季度中，您談到了一些生產限制，這是由於混合和包裝尺寸可能與您的產能不同步造成的。我比較好奇的是，需求或數量會遺失嗎？那麼，由於你無法滿足這項需求，這個訂單是否會轉給另一個競爭對手？您會在下一季或下一年彌補這一缺陷嗎？只是——您能介紹一下其中的一些動態嗎？

Yes. Sure, Josh. So look, I think it was clear that the market overall was very tight in Europe this year. So I think it wasn't just us that had some constraints in certain regions and sizes, and we saw that because customers did keep looking for support. So I think that not all of that volume necessarily got picked up elsewhere, but some certainly did. And then I think you have a whole mix of things that happen with that. Sometimes, yes, those volumes can stay. Sometimes they'll come back because obviously, we have contractual situations. And we're not talking about a huge effect on our overall business at the total level.

是的。當然，喬希。所以，我認為很明顯，今年歐洲市場整體非常緊張。因此，我認為不僅僅是我們在某些​​地區和規模上受到一些限制，我們看到這是因為客戶確實在不斷尋求支援。因此，我認為並非所有這些作品都會在其他地方被採用，但肯定有一些作品被採用。然後我認為會發生很多事情。有時，是的，這些卷可以保留。有時他們會回來，因為顯然我們有合約問題。我們所說的這對我們整體業務從總體上來說不會產生巨大的影響。

So I think, yes, we traditionally, in the European market, have seen some of these issues because it's a complicated market, multiregional, multi-size, many different customers. And so getting the exact alignment, particularly in a year like this year where we went in with relatively low levels, customers were clearly cautious. At the back end of last year, they remained quite cautious through Q1. At that point, you can get into a situation in the season where you don't have fresh production capacity to meet all the demand as it turns out.

所以我認為，是的，我們傳統上在歐洲市場已經看到了其中一些問題，因為它是一個複雜的市場，多區域、多規模、許多不同的客戶。因此，為了獲得準確的調整，特別是在今年，我們的水平相對較低，客戶顯然很謹慎。去年年底，他們在第一季仍然保持相當謹慎的態度。此時，你可能會陷入這樣的情況：在這個季節，你沒有足夠的新鮮生產能力來滿足所有需求。

So yes, I don't see it as a major effect on our business, but it's certainly -- I think it clearly held us back by a point or two of growth.

所以是的，我並不認為這會對我們的業務產生重大影響，但可以肯定的是——我認為它顯然阻礙了我們一到兩個百分點的成長。

Okay. I guess what I'm trying to understand is, does that help you guys next year? So are your customer inventories lower than where they would like to be? And if the industry grows x, you might grow 1 point above x? Or is that not the right way to think about it?

好的。我想了解的是，這對你們明年有幫助嗎？那麼您的客戶庫存是否低於他們希望的水平？如果產業成長 x，您的成長可能會比 x 高出 1 個百分點？或者說這不是正確的思考方式？

I think inventories will be resolved this winter and Q1. So I don't think the industry will do what it did last year, where we definitely saw the customers running for cash towards the year-end, and we definitely saw a caution off the back of that in Q1. So I don't think we'll see some inventory rebalancing, and that's partly why we see Q4 stronger than last year. So you can already see, if you like, your point of extra growth sitting in our guide for Q4. And in the overall industry guidance, I've seen this already from our peers, that we expect a better Q4 '24 than '23. So I don't see it as a massive impact on '25, but I think it will get resolved over the next six months.

我認為庫存問題將在今年冬季和第一季解決。因此，我認為該行業不會像去年那樣，我們確實看到客戶在年底前為現金而奔波，並且我們在第一季也確實看到了這種謹慎情緒。因此，我認為我們不會看到一些庫存再平衡，這也是我們認為第四季表現強於去年的部分原因。因此，如果您願意的話，您可以在我們的第四季度指南中看到您的額外成長點。在整體行業指導中，我已經從同行那裡看到這一點，我們預計 24 年第四季的表現將比 23 年更好。因此，我認為這不會對25年產生巨大影響，但我認為它將在未來六個月內得到解決。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的阿倫·維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)。

Maybe I could just get your thoughts on different categories. I know that you've called out some weakness in energy in North America. But as you look into maybe, say, beer and some of the other markets around water and carbonated soft drink, are you seeing any incremental kind of improvements in demand levels? It seems like we're settling down now with the lack of destocking, but it still appears that the consumer has been under quite a bit of inflation pressure. And not really seeing any material improvements in some of these categories. So maybe I just get your thoughts on those other categories as well, [book] beer and NAVs as well.

也許我只是想了解你對不同類別的看法。我知道您指出了北美能源的一些弱點。但是，當您研究啤酒和其他一些圍繞水和碳酸軟性飲料的市場時，您是否看到需求水平有任何漸進的改善？目前看來，由於缺乏去庫存，我們已經穩定下來，但消費者似乎仍然承受著相當大的通膨壓力。但在某些類別中我們並沒有真正看到任何實質的改進。所以也許我只是了解你對其他類別的看法，[書籍] 啤酒和 NAV 也是如此。

Sure. So I think the scanner data would say there's been some improvement, actually. If we look at the last sort of one to two months, there's clearly a trend of improved can sales across categories, which we also think we can detect, I think, the particular areas of strength. Carbonated soft drinks, definitely one, so [see of the shape]. And sparkling waters, I think also very strong this year. and again, particularly strong, last four or eight weeks. Beer is weaker for sure. But obviously, in our portfolio, we've gained some contractual positions in beer. So we see a bit of growth there. And then yes, the rest of the alcohol space had a rather very strong first half and a slightly weaker Q3, but at a very good first half. So yes, the main area of weakness clearly is the energy category.

當然。因此我認為掃描器數據實際上會表明情況有所改善。如果我們回顧過去的一到兩個月，我們會發現各個類別的罐裝飲料銷售量明顯呈上升趨勢，我們也認為我們可以發現一些特別強勁的領域。碳酸飲料肯定是其中之一，所以[看到形狀]。我認為今年蘇打水的銷售也非常強勁。並且再次表現得尤為強勁，持續四周或八週。啤酒肯定比較淡。但顯然，在我們的投資組合中，我們在啤酒領域獲得了一些合約地位。因此我們看到那裡有所增長。是的，其他酒類產業上半年表現相當強勁，第三季表現略弱，但上半年表現非常好。是的，主要的弱點顯然是能源類別。

And then just as a follow-up, I guess, what -- I know the question was asked about Europe maintaining pretty strong growth. But I guess, maybe we could also get your thoughts on Latin America and Brazil? It seems like there were a couple of years where -- glass was making some inroads back. It seems like the substrate shift has shifted back to cans now more recently. I guess, what do you see going forward as far as a sustainable growth rate down in Brazil?

然後作為後續問題，我想，我知道問題是關於歐洲是否保持了相當強勁的成長。但我想，也許我們也可以聽聽您對拉丁美洲和巴西的看法？似乎有幾年玻璃又取得了一些進展。最近似乎又將基材轉移回了罐頭。我想問一下，您認為巴西未來的永續成長率會如何？

Sure. Look, I think we're talking 2030 year trends out of returnable glass into one-way packaging, which is a trend you see replicated across all markets as GDP per capita rises. So it does occasionally get interrupted, either because of big economic effects, which we've seen occasionally. But the particular issues that we faced coming out of COVID was a very high aluminum price with the LME. So for our customers, that was a big issue. Obviously, we -- for us, it's just a hedge issue. But for them, it was a price issue in the market. We saw a lot of inflation on other aspects of our cost base. And so we saw particularly the largest brewer down there make a very deliberate shift into returnable 2-way glass where they have a big float, they have a big system, which they can exploit when needed.

當然。看，我認為我們正在討論 2030 年的趨勢，即從可回收玻璃轉向單向包裝，隨著人均 GDP 的上升，你會看到這一趨勢在所有市場都複製。因此，它確實偶爾會被中斷，要么是因為巨大的經濟影響，我們偶爾會看到這種情況。但我們在應對新冠疫情時面臨的一個特殊問題是倫敦金屬交易所的鋁價非常高。所以對我們的客戶來說，這是一個大問題。顯然，對我們來說，這只是一個對沖問題。但對他們來說，這是一個市場價格問題。我們發現成本基礎的其他方面也出現了很大的通貨膨脹。因此，我們看到，特別是那裡最大的啤酒釀造商非常謹慎地轉向可回收的雙向玻璃，他們擁有一個大型浮法玻璃和一個大型系統，可以在需要時加以利用。

I think that typically, what then happens is that there's a loss of market share in the off-trade and the brands become less relevant. And so then we're seeing what we see this year, which is there's a return to the off-trade as the can cost base moderated. And that then usually is the strongest trend, and that's the trend that persists. And as I said earlier, if you look back over the long time period, you get these 1- to 2-year periods where there isn't the same growth in cans, and then after that, you can get some very strong growth for a number of years. So that's why I think a mid-single digit number for Brazil is a pretty safe number given we're sitting at double digits for this year today. And there's a lot of runway to go still on returnable glass substitution. So yes, I think that's our view on Brazil. We don't participate in other Latin American markets, so I can't comment on those.

我認為通常發生的情況是，場外交易的市場份額會下降，品牌的相關性也會降低。因此，我們看到了今年看到的情況，即隨著罐頭成本基數的緩和，非貿易行業出現了回歸。這通常是最強勁的趨勢，而且是持續的趨勢。正如我之前所說，如果回顧較長的時間段，你會發現在 1 到 2 年的時間裡，罐頭的銷量並沒有出現同樣的增長，但在那之後的幾年裡，你會看到非常強勁的增長。因此，我認為，考慮到今年巴西的感染率已經達到兩位數，中等個位數對巴西來說是一個相當安全的數字。可回收玻璃替代品還有很長的路要走。是的，我認為這就是我們對巴西的看法。我們沒有參與其他拉丁美洲市場，因此我無法對此發表評論。

Stefan Diaz, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的史蒂芬·迪亞茲。

Maybe, Stefan, starting with you. Great name, by the way. The messaging has been pretty clear from the company that your arrival doesn't necessarily mean, I guess, any major changes to AMBP's capital allocation strategy. I guess that said, after 1.5 months at the company, maybe what are your first impressions? And any specific things you think the company can improve on?

也許，史蒂芬，從你開始。順便說一句，名字很棒。公司發出的訊息已經很明確了，你的到來並不一定意味著 AMBP 的資本配置策略會發生重大變化。我想，在公司工作了一個半月後，你的第一印像是什麼？您認為公司有哪些具體方面可以改進？

Yes, look, the first impressions are actually very good. I spend a lot of time on the road. I went out to the US and America, to Brazil and to Europe and have the opportunity to meet the regional leadership teams, to meet the finance teams, to go into various sites, plants, the technical and engineering centers and obviously spend a fair amount of time. Finance team and the operational teams on assessing sort of the processes, the data, the [low video] and information decision-making processes, et cetera. So I think all that has been very positive. I think it's a well-run company.

是的，看，第一印像其實非常好。我花了很多時間在路上。我去了美國、巴西和歐洲，有機會會見了地區領導團隊和財務團隊，還去了各個現場、工廠、技術和工程中心，顯然花了相當多的時間。財務團隊和營運團隊負責評估流程、數據、[低視訊] 和資訊決策流程等。所以我認為這一切都是非常正面的。我認為這是一家經營良好的公司。

I think in terms of going forward, in regards to improvements, I think every company has think that to be improved and it's all sort of in a mindset of continuous improvement. I come from the [Denaha world]. That's embedded a little bit in the DNA. So I think there are a lot of things we all continue to work on, I think the commercial excellence. I think the operational side, I mean, it's a lot of capital employed, generally speaking, in the industry is, as it intense, getting the returns of the deployed capital and continue to working on your cost position.

我認為就未來發展和改進而言，每家公司都認為需要改進，而且都處於持續改進的心態中。我來自【德納哈世界】。這已經深深嵌入了 DNA 之中。所以我認為有很多事情我們都在繼續努力，我認為是商業卓越。我認為在營運方面，我的意思是，一般來說，在行業中，它使用了大量資本，因為它很密集，可以獲得已部署資本的回報，並繼續致力於降低成本。

So I think as you would probably expect from, I think, any incoming CFO, I think there are a lot of good things to build on, but there are things to improve. And I think in that spirit, I think we continue to travel on this journey here.

因此，我認為，正如您可能期望的那樣，對於任何新任財務長來說，都有很多好的東西可以藉鑑，但也有很多東西需要改進。我認為本著這種精神，我們會繼續這段旅程。

Great. And then correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you guided to $30 million to $40 million of under-absorption in 2024, which is actually a benefit when you compare it to 2023. Profitability came in better than we were modeling. So I guess maybe is the $30 million to $40 million under absorption still the right way to think about 2024? And I understand you're still in your planning phase for 2025. But I guess if we assume sort of normalized low single-digit global volumes, initially, what do you think that under-absorption would be next year?

偉大的。如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我相信您預測 2024 年的吸收不足額將達到 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元，與 2023 年相比，這實際上是一個好處。獲利能力比我們所模擬的還要好。因此，我想，吸收 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元也許仍然是思考 2024 年的正確方式？我知道您仍處於 2025 年的規劃階段。但我想，如果我們最初假設全球交易量處於正常化的低個位數，您認為明年的吸收不足會是多少？

Sure. Look, I think it's still the right way to think about this year because I think we're actually a little bit under our volume guide for the year with the weaknesses with the energy category in North America, and now there's specific issues in Brazil. So I don't think anything has changed on that as we look at the year. The main gains we've made this year have been around input cost recovery, where we had a very strong performance, which has helped us on the price cost line. And then looking into next year, as you say, we're in the middle of the budget process, so we're not detailing anything out. But I think it's fair to say that we expect the $30 million, $40 million to drop again next year as we go into the capacity. The exact number, we won't guide today, but we can talk about it at the full year results. But I think it's reasonable to expect some improvement on that line as we as I say, grow into the underused capacity.

當然。看，我認為這仍然是思考今年的正確方式，因為我認為我們今年的銷售實際上略低於預期，北美能源類別存在弱點，現在巴西又有具體問題。因此，我認為從今年的情況來看，這方面沒有任何變化。我們今年的主要收益是在投入成本回收方面，我們在這方面表現非常強勁，這對我們的價格成本線有幫助。然後展望明年，正如你所說，我們正處於預算過程中，因此我們不會詳細說明任何內容。但我認為公平地說，隨著產能的增加，我們預計明年 3,000 萬美元、4,000 萬美元將再次下降。具體數字，我們今天不會公佈，但我們可以在全年業績公佈時談論。但我認為，正如我所說，隨著我們產能的不斷增加，我們有理由期待這條生產線會有所改善。

Gabe Hajde, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的 Gabe Hajde。

This is Alex, on for Gabe. So my question is actually -- so on Europe, if you look at the scanner data, I mean, it seems like promotional activities was quite high during the first half. And I guess you could kind of base it on the Olympics to Euro Cup, whatnot. But my question is that in 2025, if promotional activities are lower next year, do you still have confidence and that volumes would perform in line with your expectations? Or is there some sort of promotional level that you guys are thinking where it will have to -- that will be needed to support a low single-digit growth next year?

我是亞歷克斯 (Alex)，代替加布 (Gabe)。所以我的問題實際上是 - 在歐洲，如果你查看掃描器數據，我的意思是，似乎上半年的促銷活動相當活躍。我想你可以根據奧運、歐洲盃等等來做出判斷。但我的問題是，到 2025 年，如果明年的促銷活動較少，您是否仍然有信心並且銷量會符合您的預期？或者你們認為必須達到某種促銷水平——以支持明年的低個位數成長？

Yes. Look, I think if you look at the pattern this year, we're actually seeing the scanner data that May, June were the weakest months actually, with the -- weather in Northern Europe was terrible. And there was definitely a bit less sell-through there. Whereas actually July, August, we're very strong. And we look at the data we're beginning to get for Q3 on the can side. You could be talking over five softdrinks side and sort of in the 2% to 3% range on the beer side. So I think that that was the shape of the year, which tells you this is not all about the Euro. It's not all about the Olympics, which we never thought it was. The Olympics have never had any particularly major impact on our volumes that we've been able to discern over the years.

是的。看，我認為如果你看看今年的模式，我們實際上會看到掃描器數據顯示，五月和六月實際上是最弱的月份，因為北歐的天氣很糟糕。那裡的銷售量肯定少了一點。而實際上七月和八月我們的表現非常強勁。我們來看看第三季罐頭方面的數據。您可能正在談論五種軟性飲料，而啤酒的份額則在 2% 到 3% 之間。所以我認為這就是今年的情況，這告訴你這不僅僅與歐元有關。這不僅與奧運有關，我們從未想過這一切都與奧運有關。就我們多年來所見，奧運從未對我們的銷售產生特別重大的影響。

And again, I'll take you back to the fact that Europe has been a growth market for 20-odd years with normal levels of promotional activity. I'm not sure we're even back to normal levels of promotional activity yet. We don't have a chapter and verse on that. But I think we've certainly seen customers leaning into volume this year after two years of really not doing that. And I think there could still be further to go on that dimension actually. But I don't think that Europe's growth depends on that. I think we only have to get to what you might call normal, which I think this year is a reasonably normal year on promotional activity. And then all the other factors play in, which is, again, the advantages of the can in the pack mix, growth in certain segments from a liquid point of view, growth in certain regions from a liquid point of view. As I said, the recovery in Germany is still pretty strong. So yes, Europe doesn't need some elevated level of promotional activity to grow next year. I think that all the factors are in place for a good level of growth next year without that.

我再次強調，事實是歐洲 20 多年來一直是個成長型市場，促銷活動水準也保持正常。我不確定我們的促銷活動是否已經恢復正常水準。我們沒有關於此的詳細章節。但我認為，在經歷了兩年的低迷之後，我們今年確實看到客戶開始傾向於增加銷售。我認為實際上在這方面還可以有進一步的進步。但我不認為歐洲的成長依賴於此。我認為我們只需要達到所謂的正常水平，我認為今年的促銷活動是相當正常的一年。然後所有其他因素都會發揮作用，也就是，再次強調，罐裝在包裝組合中的優勢，從液體的角度來看某些細分市場的成長，從液體的角度來看某些地區的成長。正如我所說，德國的復甦仍然相當強勁。所以是的，歐洲不需要更高水準的促銷活動來實現明年的成長。我認為，即使沒有這種情況，所有因素仍然足以保證明年經濟會達到良好的成長。

Okay. And I guess another way of thinking about that is as beverage producers look to lean on volumes in 2025, I would assume they're trying to be more mindful on procurement costs and whatnot. I guess what kind of -- how are you guys thinking about this next year as maybe some of your customers try to seek some more favorable pricing terms, I guess?

好的。我想，另一種思考方式是，隨著飲料生產商希望在 2025 年依靠產量，我認為他們會更加註意採購成本等等。我想，明年你們會怎麼想呢？

I mean, I don't think we've ever been in a year where they haven't sought additionally improved terms. So I don't think there's anything new in the can industry from our customers looking for better pricing, but then equally, we need to get paid for what we do, and we have contractual structures and long-term contracts. So more of the factors that will drive this in Europe in 2025 will be some of the PPI rates. Some of the ways that the short length contract negotiations play out through the autumn rather than any particularly elevated activity by our customers who, in general, have seen moderating input costs in the last year, including our input costs and also some of the, as I said, the broader LME-type costs that are coming into their P&L.

我的意思是，我想我們從未經歷過他們不尋求額外改善條款的一年。因此，我認為，對於罐頭行業來說，我們的客戶尋求更好的價格並不是什麼新鮮事，但同樣，我們需要為我們所做的事情獲得報酬，我們有合約結構和長期合約。因此，到 2025 年，推動歐洲這一趨勢的更多因素將是 PPI 比率。短合約談判的一些方式在秋季展開，而不是我們的客戶進行任何特別激烈的活動，總體而言，他們看到去年的投入成本有所緩和，包括我們的投入成本，以及一些，正如我所說的，進入他們損益表的更廣泛的倫敦金屬交易所類型的成本。

So if I take the euro, in particular, I think there could be some headwinds from the falling PPI for our business with the pass-throughs that equally, there are many other things on the price cost line will affect how that one plays out, and we're certainly not calling it yet. We need to go through the autumn and do our full budget process. And if I take our business as a whole, we have some very robust pass-through mechanisms, particularly in North America, but also in Brazil. So I have no particular comment on that front if I take the business as a whole. I think there could be a few headwinds in Europe, but we've got many other levers to pull to address those.

因此，如果我以歐元為例，我認為 PPI 下跌可能會給我們的業務帶來一些阻力，同樣，價格成本線上的許多其他因素也會影響這一阻力的發揮，我們目前還不能確定。我們需要在整個秋季完成我們的預算流程。如果我從整體來看我們的業務，我們有一些非常強大的傳遞機制，特別是在北美，但在巴西也是如此。因此，如果我從整體上看待這個業務的話，我對此沒有特別的評論。我認為歐洲可能會面臨一些阻力，但我們也可以採取許多其他措施來解決這些問題。

Michael Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Michael Roxland。

This is Nico Piccini, on for Mike. I guess just to go back and touch on promotional activity again. Can you comment on trends you saw in North America over the last quarter and maybe where you think that's going to end up as we head into the end of the year? And then off of that, just -- what the cadence of shipments were in North America, if you can share?

我是 Nico Piccini，代替 Mike。我想只是回去再談一談促銷活動。您能否評論一下上個季度北美的趨勢以及您認為到年底這種趨勢將會如何發展？然後，除此之外，北美的出貨節奏是怎麼樣的，您可以分享一下嗎？

Yes. So look, I think promotional activity is back at sort of or around the same levels as last year, which I think if you look at -- this is in soft drinks, I mean, we participate less on the beer side, where it has been pretty muted the promotional activity. And so it's still probably not as strong as pre-pandemic levels. I think the '23 numbers, we were comparing to some decent distance back to them, but not necessarily at that level yet.

是的。所以，我認為促銷活動已經回到了與去年大致相同的水平，如果你看一下——這是在軟飲料領域，我的意思是，我們在啤酒方面的參與較少，因為啤酒方面的促銷活動相當平淡。因此，它可能仍不如大流行前的水平那麼強勁。我認為，我們正在與 23 個數字進行比較，與他們有相當遠的距離，但不一定達到那個水平。

But despite that, if you look into the data, CSD in cans is a growth package in the last four to eight weeks, and definitely in our data, we certainly see that. So again, I don't think we need to get too hung up on that on the soft drink side of the house. I think that there'll still be, in my estimation, some leaning into volume and promotional activity as we go forward. But equally, it seems that we're getting growth without full return to pre-pandemic levels, which is probably good for the industry overall because I think some of those pre-pandemic levels of promotion, there's no profit in the value chain. So it's probably better overall if there is still profit in the value chain.

但儘管如此，如果你查看數據，你會發現過去四到八週內罐裝碳酸軟性飲料的銷售量呈現成長趨勢，這一點在我們的數據中是肯定的。所以，我再說一遍，我認為我們沒必要太糾結於軟性飲料的問題。我認為，隨著我們不斷前進，我們仍然會傾向於數量和促銷活動。但同樣的，我們似乎在沒有完全恢復到疫情前的水平的情況下實現了增長，這可能對整個行業有利，因為我認為疫情前的一些促銷水平，價值鏈中是沒有利潤的。因此，如果價值鏈中仍然有利潤，總體來說可能會更好。

So yes, I think that -- I don't think we need to get too concerned about that. As I said on the bev side of the house, I think it looks a bit less. And then as we look into '25, we're also still pretty constructive about CSD growth in North America. In November, I think there are some significant pressures still on plastics in all customers' portfolio. So I think we do see an ongoing tailwind for the can in that area.

所以是的，我認為——我認為我們不需要太擔心這個。正如我所說的，在房子的飲料方面，我認為它看起來少了一些。然後，當我們展望25年時，我們仍然對北美的 CSD 成長持非常樂觀的態度。11 月份，我認為所有客戶的產品組合中的塑膠仍然面臨著較大的壓力。因此我認為我們確實看到該地區罐頭業持續呈現順風態勢。

Got it. And then just on -- sorry, on cadence of shipments as you move through the quarter?

知道了。然後只是 - 抱歉，您在本季的出貨節奏如何？

Yes. So July was strong. Yes, July was very strong. For August, we were tracking a strong comp. So that was a bit weaker in September was sort of between the two. And it looks like October is trending in a similar place. Europe is trending very well in October, more than double the Q3 result in Brazil, yes, we talked already about this specific issue. That means it's definitely weak in October.

是的。七月表現強勁。是的，七月非常強勁。八月份，我們追蹤了一家實力強勁的公司。因此，9 月的疲軟程度介於兩者之間。看起來十月的趨勢也類似。歐洲十月的趨勢非常好，是巴西第三季業績的兩倍多，是的，我們已經討論過這個具體問題了。這意味著十月份它肯定很弱。

Roger Spitz, Bank of America.

美國銀行的羅傑‧史皮茲 (Roger Spitz)。

I wonder if you might go over some of the other cash flow items? You talked about EBITDA and growth CapEx being a little less than $100 million. Is base CapEx still $120 million? And have you changed anything from cash interest, cash taxes, working capital, lease closure costs and start-up costs, et cetera?

我想知道您是否可以介紹一下其他一些現金流項目？您談到 EBITDA 和成長資本支出略低於 1 億美元。基本資本支出仍為 1.2 億美元嗎？您是否改變了現金利息、現金稅、營運資金、租賃結束成本和啟動成本等任何內容？

Yes. So on the working capital side, we still expect sort of a moderate inflow on order of magnitude $40 million to $50 million for the full year. On the cash interest, probably slightly below $200 million, the cash tax sort of in the 30-ish sort of order of magnitude. Then on the lease side, sort of we continue to expect around 90. And I think we also guided towards a little bit over 50 on the cash exceptional side.

是的。因此，在營運資金方面，我們仍預計全年將有 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元的適度流入。就現金利息而言，可能略低於 2 億美元，現金稅約為 30 的數量級。在租賃方面，我們預計將繼續保持在 90 左右。我認為，我們也預計現金餘額將略高於 50。

Perfect. And then just when you borrowed the $269 million term loan from Apollo. I mean, cash is fungible, but did you effectively use it to both pay down the ABL and then cash on the balance sheet?

完美的。就在你從阿波羅借了 2.69 億美元定期貸款的時候。我的意思是，現金是可替代的，但你是否有效地用它來償還 ABL 並在資產負債表上兌現？

Yes, correct. It was used to pay down the ABL. So it's really neutral from a leverage perspective, but that was the way we used the proceeds.

是的，正確。它被用來償還 ABL。因此，從槓桿的角度來看，這確實是中性的，但這就是我們使用收益的方式。

Stefan Diaz, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的史蒂芬·迪亞茲。

So aluminum prices are roughly up 20% year-over-year. Obviously, lower than the levels we saw in early 2022. I understand aluminum is a direct pass-through for you. But do you think there's a price level where you believe your customers may start to substrate switch to protect their margins?

因此鋁價年增約20%。顯然，低於我們在 2022 年初看到的水平。我知道鋁對你來說是直接通過的。但是，您是否認為存在一個價格水平，您認為您的客戶可能會開始轉換基材以保護他們的利潤？

I mean there is, and we saw it in Brazil, as we talked about with the returnable switch, but it's significantly higher than this. I think. I mean, we're talking -- we're in the 3,000 to 4,000 levels at various points in that cycle. So I think we're a long way from that. And we certainly see overall the input cost of the can have been relatively favorable the last 12 or 18 months relative to other substrates. So yes, I think we still think we're in a good place from a customer mix choice. And we have all the evidence of that from this year, particularly in Europe.

我的意思是有，我們在巴西也看到了這種情況，就像我們談到的可回收開關一樣，但它的比例要高得多。我認為。我的意思是，我們正在談論——我們處於該週期各個點的 3,000 到 4,000 的水平。所以我認為我們距離這個目標還很遠。而且我們確實看到，過去 12 到 18 個月，與其他基材相比，罐頭的投入成本總體上是相對有利的。所以是的，我認為從客戶組合選擇來看，我們仍然處於有利地位。今年我們已經獲得了充分的證據，特別是在歐洲。

And at this time, we have no further questions. I'll turn it back over to our speakers for any additional or closing remarks.

目前，我們沒有其他問題。我將把發言權交還給我們的發言人，以便他們發表任何補充評論或結束語。

Yes. Thanks, Melinda. Thanks, everyone, for joining today. Obviously, a good quarter for us of earnings ahead of expectations, which is the third -- and the third successive quarter we'd beat against our guidance. And then obviously particularly pleased that with the strong year-to-date performance, we've been able to raise the full year guide as well. So again for taking the time, and we look forward to talking to you at the full year results.

是的。謝謝，梅琳達。感謝大家今天的參與。顯然，對我們來說這是一個好季度，我們的利潤超出了預期，這是我們連續第三個季度的利潤超出預期。我們顯然特別高興的是，憑藉今年迄今強勁的表現，我們也能夠提高全年業績預期。所以再次感謝您抽出時間，我們期待與您討論全年業績。

This concludes today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開您的線路。