Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging SA quarterly results conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stephen Lyons. Please go ahead.

歡迎參加 Ardagh Metal Packaging SA 季度業績電話會議。今天的會議正在錄影。此時，我謹將會議交給史蒂芬‧萊昂斯先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's third quarter 2025 earnings call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the third quarter. I'm joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer; and Stefan Schellinger, AMP's Chief Financial Officer. Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook.

謝謝接線員，歡迎各位。感謝您今天參加 Ardagh Metal Packaging 2025 年第三季財報電話會議，此前 AMP 已發布了第三季財報。今天與我一同出席的有 AMP 執行長 Oliver Graham 和 AMP 財務長 Stefan Schellinger。在回答您的問題之前，我們將首先對 AMP 的性能和前景進行一些介紹性說明。

AMP's earnings release and related materials for the third quarter can be found on AMP's website at ir.ardaghmetalpackaging.com. Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release.

AMP第三季財報及相關資料可至AMP網站ir.ardaghmetalpackaging.com查閱。今天的發言將包含一些前瞻性陳述，並將使用非國際財務報告準則（IFRS）的財務指標。實際結果可能與此類說法有重大差異。請參閱 AMP 獲利報告中關於前瞻性聲明免責聲明以及非 IFRS 財務指標與 IFRS 財務指標的調節詳情。

I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

現在我將把通話交給奧利佛‧葛拉漢。

Thanks, Stephen. We delivered a strong performance in the third quarter with adjusted EBITDA growth of 6% versus the prior year quarter or 3% on a constant currency basis. Our adjusted EBITDA result of $208 million was towards the upper end of our guidance with both segments performing broadly in line with our expectations. Adjusted EBITDA growth in the quarter was supported by shipments growth in Europe and North America, lower operational and overhead costs as well as favorable category mix.

謝謝你，史蒂芬。第三季業績表現強勁，調整後 EBITDA 年成長 6%，以固定匯率計算成長 3%。我們調整後的 EBITDA 表現為 2.08 億美元，接近我們預期的上限，兩個業務部門的表現都基本上符合我們的預期。本季調整後 EBITDA 成長得益於歐洲和北美地區的出貨量成長、營運和管理費用降低以及有利的品類組合。

Although global volumes were below our expectations in the quarter, on a year-to-date basis, they are up over 3% versus the prior year. The beverage can continues to benefit from innovation and share gains in our customers' packaging mix, underpinning our growth expectations. We continue to progress our sustainability agenda and our recently published sustainability report highlights strong progress towards our targets in 2024, including a 10% annual reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions and a 14% reduction in Scope 3 emissions, with Scope 3 emissions now 25% below the 2020 baseline. We anticipate further good progress in 2025 and beyond.

儘管本季全球銷量低於我們的預期，但今年迄今為止，銷量比上年同期成長超過 3%。飲料罐持續受益於創新，並在客戶的包裝組合中佔據了越來越大的份額，這支撐了我們的成長預期。我們繼續推進永續發展議程，最近發布的永續發展報告重點介紹了我們在實現 2024 年目標方面取得的顯著進展，包括範圍 1 和範圍 2 的排放量每年減少 10%，範圍 3 的排放量每年減少 14%，目前範圍 3 的排放量比 2020 年的基準水準低 25%。我們預計2025年及以後將取得進一步的良好進展。

Turning to AMP's Q3 results by segment. In Europe, third-quarter revenue increased by 9% to $625 million or by 3% on a constant currency basis compared with the same period in 2024, principally due to volume growth. Shipments grew by 2% for the quarter, driven by growth in energy drinks and faster-growing categories such as ciders, ready-to-drink teas and coffees, wines, and water. This growth offset continued weakness in the beer category, which represents over 40% of our European portfolio. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 4% to $82 million, in line with expectation.

接下來我們來看看AMP第三季的業績報告，依業務板塊劃分。在歐洲，第三季營收成長 9% 至 6.25 億美元，以固定匯率計算比 2024 年同期成長 3%，主要原因是銷量成長。本季出貨量成長了 2%，這主要得益於能量飲料的成長以及蘋果酒、即飲茶和咖啡、葡萄酒和水等成長較快的品類的成長。這一增長抵消了啤酒類別的持續疲軟，啤酒品類占我們歐洲產品組合的 40% 以上。第三季歐洲調整後 EBITDA 成長 4% 至 8,200 萬美元，符合預期。

On a constant currency basis, adjusted EBITDA reduced by 4% due to input cost recovery headwinds, partly offset by the contribution from higher volumes and favorable category mix. Given the continued softness in the beer category, we now expect full-year shipment growth for Europe of low-single-digit percentage for full year 2025. As we look into 2026, we continue to expect the market to grow around 3% to 4% and for our volumes to broadly match that growth.

以固定匯率計算，由於投入成本回收面臨不利因素，調整後的 EBITDA 下降了 4%，但銷量增加和品類組合有利的部分抵消了這一影響。鑑於啤酒類別持續疲軟，我們現在預計 2025 年全年歐洲啤酒出貨量成長率將僅為個位數百分比。展望 2026 年，我們仍然預期市場將成長 3% 至 4%，而我們的銷量也將大致與這一成長相匹配。

In the Americas, revenue in the third quarter increased by 8% to $803 million, which mainly reflected the pass-through of higher input costs to customers, including the impact of the higher Midwest premium in North America. Americas adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased by 8% to $126 million, in line with expectations due to lower operational and overhead costs and favorable category mix, partly offset by the impact of lower volumes in Brazil.

在美洲，第三季營收成長了 8%，達到 8.03 億美元，這主要反映了更高的投入成本轉嫁給了客戶，包括北美中西部地區更高的保費的影響。美洲地區本季調整後 EBITDA 成長 8% 至 1.26 億美元，符合預期，這得益於營運和管理費用的降低以及有利的品類組合，但部分被巴西銷售下降的影響所抵消。

In North America, shipments increased by 1% for the quarter, broadly in line with the industry, following stronger-than-expected growth during the first half of the year. Year-to-date, North America shipments are up by 5%, ahead of the overall industry. The slower rate of growth during the quarter reflects some moderation in industry growth rates as well as temporary operational challenges. These included a modest impact related to aluminum can sheet supply as well as some temporary plant and network issues.

在北美，本季出貨量成長了 1%，與產業整體情況基本一致，此前上半年的成長強於預期。今年迄今為止，北美地區的出貨量成長了 5%，高於整個產業的平均值。本季成長速度放緩反映了行業成長速度的某種程度的放緩以及暫時的營運挑戰。其中包括鋁罐板材供應方面的一些輕微影響，以及一些臨時性的工廠和網路問題。

We continue to monitor the metal supply situation as we progress through Q4. If the supply chain performs as currently projected, we anticipate only a modest impact to our expected Q4 North America performance. Customer demand for nonalcoholic beverages in cans in North America remains strong. And as such, we maintain our guidance for full-year North America shipments of a mid-single-digit percentage growth.

我們將繼續密切關注第四季度金屬供應情況。如果供應鏈以目前預測運行，我們預期對我們預期的第四季北美業績只會產生輕微影響。北美消費者對罐裝非酒精飲料的需求依然強勁。因此，我們維持對全年北美出貨量實現中等個位數百分比成長的預期。

Looking into 2026, we expect industry growth of a low-single-digit percentage. We expect a somewhat softer outlook for AMP following some volume resets largely related to specific footprint situations. We anticipate 2026 being a transition year before good growth in 2027 on the back of some contracted additional filling locations and ongoing market growth. In Brazil, third-quarter beverage can shipments decreased by 17%, largely due to a weak industry backdrop across all categories, with industry beer can volumes falling by around 14% due to adverse weather and weak household consumption.

展望 2026 年，我們預期產業成長率將達到個位數百分比。我們預計，在與特定市場份額情況相關的交易量調整之後，AMP 的前景將有所放緩。我們預計 2026 年將是過渡年，在 2027 年隨著一些已簽約的額外填充地點和持續的市場增長，將實現良好增長。在巴西，第三季飲料罐出貨量下降了 17%，這主要是由於所有類別的行業背景疲軟，其中啤酒罐行業銷量因惡劣天氣和家庭消費疲軟而下降了約 14%。

Our weaker performance in Q3 follows a strong performance in the first half of the year. Year-to-date, Brazil shipments are down 1% versus a mid-single-digit percentage decline for the rest of the industry. We expect an improved volume trend for Q4 compared to Q3, and hence, full-year shipments for Brazil to be broadly in line with the prior year. Looking into 2026, we expect the Brazilian industry to return to growth and for our volumes to broadly track the industry.

第三季業績疲軟，此前上半年業績表現強勁。今年迄今為止，巴西的出貨量下降了 1%，而整個產業的出貨量下降幅度為個位數百分比。我們預計第四季銷售趨勢將比第三季有所改善，因此，巴西全年出貨量將與去年大致持平。展望 2026 年，我們預期巴西工業將恢復成長，我們的銷售量也將大致與產業同步成長。

I'll hand over now to Stefan to talk you through our financial position for the quarter before finishing with some concluding remarks.

現在我將把發言權交給斯特凡，讓他為大家介紹一下我們本季的財務狀況，最後他還會做一些總結性發言。

Thanks, Ollie, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. We ended the quarter with a robust liquidity position of over $600 million. The net leverage of [5.2] net debt over last 12 months adjusted EBITDA represents a decline of 0.4 times of leverage versus Q2 2024, reflecting adjusted EBITDA growth. It remains our expectation that the leverage ratio at year-end will be around 5 times.

謝謝你，奧利，大家早安，下午好。本季末，我們擁有超過 6 億美元的穩健流動資金。過去 12 個月的淨槓桿率為 [5.2] 淨債務，經調整的 EBITDA 較 2024 年第二季下降了 0.4 倍，反映了經調整的 EBITDA 的成長。我們仍然預期年底槓桿率將在 5 倍左右。

We reiterate our expectation for adjusted free cash flow for 2025 of at least $150 million. In terms of the various components of free cash flow, our expectations are mostly in line with what we said in July. We expect maintenance CapEx of around $135 million, lease principal repayments of just over $100 million, cash interest of just over $200 million, and a small outflow in working capital. We now expect cash tax to be in the range of $35 million to $40 million, growth CapEx to be around $65 million, and a small cash exceptional outflow of approximately $50 million. Today, we have announced our quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share. And with that, I'll hand it back to Ollie.

我們重申對 2025 年調整後自由現金流至少 1.5 億美元的預期。就自由現金流的各個組成部分而言，我們的預期與7月的說法基本一致。我們預計維護資本支出約為 1.35 億美元，租賃本金償還略高於 1 億美元，現金利息略高於 2 億美元，以及少量營運資金流出。我們現在預計現金稅將在 3,500 萬美元至 4,000 萬美元之間，成長資本支出約為 6,500 萬美元，以及約 5,000 萬美元的小額現金特殊支出。今天，我們宣布派發每股 0.10 美元的季度普通股股息。然後，我就把它還給奧利了。

Thanks, Stefan. So before moving to take your questions, just to recap on AMP's performance and key messages. Firstly, adjusted EBITDA growth in the third quarter of 6% was at the upper end of our guidance range with both segments performing in line with expectations. Adjusted EBITDA growth was supported by shipments growth in both Europe and North America by lower operational and overhead costs and a favorable category mix. And the beverage can continue to outperform other substrates in our customers' packaging mix, supporting our growth.

謝謝你，斯特凡。在回答大家的問題之前，先回顧一下 AMP 的表現和主要訊息。首先，第三季調整後 EBITDA 成長率為 6%，處於我們預期範圍的上限，兩個業務部門的業績都符合預期。調整後 EBITDA 成長得益於歐洲和北美地區的出貨量成長，這主要得益於較低的營運和管理費用以及有利的品類組合。而且，這種飲料在客戶的包裝組合中可以繼續優於其他基材，從而支持我們的成長。

Reflecting our resilient performance, we are upgrading our full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. Full-year adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of $720 million to $735 million based on current FX rates. We expect full-year shipments growth for AMP to be approximately 3%.

鑑於我們穩健的業績表現，我們上調了全年調整後 EBITDA 預期。根據目前的匯率，預計全年調整後 EBITDA 將在 7.2 億美元至 7.35 億美元之間。我們預計 AMP 全年出貨量成長約 3%。

Having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to take any questions that you may have.

開場白完畢，現在我們將回答各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions) George Staphos, Bank of America.

（操作員說明）喬治·斯塔福斯，美國銀行。

Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Thanks for the details. Congrats on the progress. I guess the first question I had, only have a couple. Can you talk, and Stefan, about what, if any, effects you're seeing from demand elasticity and higher realized or potentially realized aluminum pricing from can sheet within cans, both in North America and Brazil and then, I guess, broadly.

大家好。早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。謝謝你提供的詳細資訊。恭喜你取得進展。我猜我的第一個問題，只有幾個。您和 Stefan 能否談談，在北美和巴西，以及更廣泛的範圍內，你們觀察到的需求彈性以及罐內鋁板價格上漲（無論是已實現的還是潛在的）對整個市場產生了哪些影響？

And in that regard, with Brazil, the down, I think you said 17% on weak industry trends. Obviously, others have also put up some weaker industry volumes so far during reporting period in Brazil. Do you sense any of that is a pack shift mix back to other substrates because of, in fact, higher aluminum prices? How would you have us think about that? And along with the elasticity question, just can you talk a bit more about what's baked into your guidance for fourth quarter and realize you're not guiding on '26, just the outlook for '26 on can sheet. What operational challenges do you -- are you -- how are you going to -- we know what issues hit the supply chain? How are you managing against that and what's baked in to the extent you can comment? Thank you.

就巴西而言，我認為你說過，由於產業趨勢疲軟，經濟下滑了 17%。顯然，在巴西的報告期間內，其他一些產業的成交量也相對較低。您是否感覺到，由於鋁價上漲，導致包裝材料配方重新轉向其他基材？您希望我們如何看待這個問題？除了彈性問題之外，您能否再詳細談談您對第四季度的指導意見中包含了哪些內容？請注意，您給出的不是 2026 年的指導意見，而只是對 2026 年的展望。你們面臨哪些營運挑戰？你們打算如何應對？我們知道供應鏈有哪些問題嗎？您是如何應對這種情況的？您能否就此發表一些看法？目前有哪些因應措施？謝謝。

Yeah, hi, George. So yeah, on the first question, I mean, I don't think we're seeing a huge amount on demand elasticity at this point. Obviously, everybody -- more or less everybody will have gone into 2025 pretty hedged, so a lot of the tariff impact won't come through in North America at this point, probably similar story for Brazil in some respects. So I don't think we're seeing it hugely impacting sales at this point.

嗨，喬治。是的，關於第一個問題，我的意思是，我認為目前我們還沒有看到需求彈性非常大。顯然，到 2025 年，幾乎所有人都已經做好了充分的對沖準備，因此關稅的影響在目前還不會在北美顯現出來，巴西在某些方面的情況可能也類似。所以我覺得目前來看，它還沒有對銷售產生巨大影響。

I think that there's a bit more risk for 2026 for exactly the same reason that hedges will be rolling. And so you would expect to see some higher aluminum costs come into the supply chain. And then it will be down to whether our customers pass those through or retailers pass those through and then how the consumer reacts in the overall consumer environment.

我認為，由於對沖交易將會到期，2026 年的風險會更大一些。因此，預計供應鏈中鋁的成本將會增加。然後，就取決於我們的客戶還是零售商是否會接受這些條款，以及消費者在整體消費環境中會如何反應。

So I think we -- we're probably guiding North America for next year at a market level 1% to 2%, and that's partly reflecting some of that caution about potential inflation in the can. I think in Brazil, I don't think we've seen a big reversion back into two-way glass. I think it stayed pretty much steady the shares of cans. It just seems to be a general weakness on the volume level on the liquid level, and we see that in the reporting of the big brewers. And obviously, it was a pretty poor winter, a very cold winter that's been commented on. And obviously, there is a weak consumer backdrop in the category, particularly in beer, but actually soft drinks wasn't great either.

所以我認為我們——我們預計明年北美市場整體成長率將達到 1% 至 2%，這部分反映了我們對潛在通膨的謹慎態度。我認為在巴西，我們還沒有看到雙向玻璃大規模回歸的趨勢。我認為罐頭食品的份額基本上保持穩定。這似乎是液體產量層面上的普遍弱點，我們在大型啤酒廠的報告中也看到了這一點。顯然，那是一個相當糟糕的冬天，一個非常寒冷的冬天，這已經有人提到過了。顯然，該品類的消費環境疲軟，尤其是啤酒，但實際上軟性飲料的情況也不太好。

So I think Brazil is just having a tough year. Again, as we look into '26, we'd assume that it reverts more back to its long-term trend. So maybe low- to mid-singles. And as we said in the remarks, we'd be in line with that. In terms of Q4, so I think the can sheet, we're cautiously optimistic at this point. Obviously, there's been a lot of disruption in the supply chain. We were having it actually before the fire at that key facility. There was already some disruption in the supply chain, which we mentioned. And obviously, the fire didn't help.

所以我認為巴西今年確實過得很艱難。再說，展望 2026 年，我們預計它會更多地回歸其長期趨勢。所以可能是低到中單打等級。正如我們在發言中所說，我們會同意這一點。就第四季而言，我認為罐頭銷售方面，我們目前持謹慎樂觀態度。顯然，供應鏈受到了極大的干擾。事實上，在那處重要設施發生火災之前，我們就已經在那裡用餐了。正如我們之前提到的，供應鏈已經出現了一些中斷。很顯然，這場火災也雪上加霜。

At this point, we think we're managing through. And obviously, it gets easier as the quarter progresses because alternative sources of supply can come into the mix, and we're obviously supplied from various domestic and international sources. And we also have one of the two new mills in North America now coming online, which is obviously very helpful to the situation.

目前來看，我們還能勉強應付。顯然，隨著季度的推進，情況會變得更容易，因為其他供應來源可以加入進來，而且我們顯然從各種國內和國際來源獲得供應。而且，北美兩家新工廠中的一家也即將投產，這顯然對目前的情況非常有幫助。

So at the minute, we're optimistic that we can get through that, as we said in the remarks, with relatively limited impact on North America performance. But we probably did lose 1 to 2 points of growth in Q3 across all of the operation issues that included a couple of plants that didn't perform at the level we expected and also the network was under some stress with some seismic issues.

所以目前我們樂觀地認為，正如我們在演講中所說，我們可以渡過難關，對北美業績的影響相對較小。但由於營運問題，包括幾家工廠的業績未達到預期水平，以及電網受到一些地震問題的影響，我們在第三季可能損失了 1 到 2 個百分點的成長。

Very good. I'll turn it over. Thank you.

非常好。我把它翻過來。謝謝。

Matt Roberts, Raymond James.

Matt Roberts，Raymond James。

Hi, Ali, Justin, and Steven. Good afternoon. First, on the 2026 growth in North America, it seems like there's a lot of innovation, potential shelf-space distribution opportunities within your energy portfolio. So what's behind that transition here? And given your exposure, why in line with the market in North America?

嗨，阿里、賈斯汀和史蒂文。午安.首先，關於 2026 年北美地區的成長，您的能源組合中似乎有很多創新和潛在的貨架空間分銷機會。那麼，這種轉變背後究竟隱藏著什麼呢？鑑於您的業務範圍，為什麼選擇與北美市場保持一致？

Yeah. Great question. So look, I think we've talked about it on calls. It's been on other calls. There's a lot of contract-reset activity in North America over the last couple of years. We're seeing that increasingly settle down now. And we're broadly very comfortable with the outcomes. We see ourselves increasingly strongly contracted through '28 and beyond. We do see some softness, as we said, in 2026, particularly on the 12-ounce side of the portfolio due to some resets within those situations. And as I said on the remarks, it's really about some specific footprint situations.

是的。問得好。所以，我想我們已經在電話會議中討論過這個問題了。在其他通話中也出現過。過去幾年，北美地區出現了大量的合約重置活動。我們看到這種情況現在逐漸穩定下來。我們對結果總體上非常滿意。我們預計到 2028 年及以後，我們的業務將持續萎縮。正如我們所說，我們確實看到 2026 年市場會出現一些疲軟，尤其是在 12 盎司規格的股票組合中，因為這些情況下會出現一些調整。正如我在發言中所說，這實際上與一些具體的足跡情況有關。

So by -- what I mean by that is, for example, we had a customer with a very long freight lane out of the COVID years. We were at one point, thinking of building capacity. We decided not to with the overall volume situation. So now there is a plant much closer than our plant, and so that naturally reverts. And then another situation example is that one of our competition built a plant during this period of expansion and that plant is now closer to a customer filling location than our plant. And so we're seeing some, I think, relatively natural resets in the market. As you know, I mean, obviously, beverage cans are very susceptible to freight and footprint is critical.

我的意思是，例如，我們有一位客戶，他在新冠疫情期間擁有一條非常長的貨運線路。我們一度考慮提升產能。鑑於整體交易量的情況，我們決定不這樣做。所以現在有一種比我們的植物更靠近的植物，因此自然而然地就逆轉了。另一個例子是，我們的一個競爭對手在擴張期間建造了一家工廠，現在這家工廠比我們的工廠更靠近客戶的填充地點。因此，我認為我們看到市場出現了一些相對自然的調整。如你所知，飲料罐顯然很容易受到運輸的影響，因此佔地面積至關重要。

So yes, as I say, I think we're very comfortable with where we're coming out now. We do see '26 as a softer year in North America, where we will be behind the market. But if we take '27, we see good growth. We see we're gaining a couple of extra filling locations, and we see the market growing again. And as you say, I think if you look at the innovation that's going into the can and you look at the way energy has performed this year, that's a big part of our portfolio.

所以，正如我所說，我認為我們對目前的結果非常滿意。我們認為 2026 年北美市場會比較疲軟，我們將落後於市場。但如果我們以 2027 年為例，就會發現成長勢頭良好。我們看到新增了幾個加油站，市場也再次開始成長。正如你所說，我認為，如果你看看罐裝產品中的創新，再看看今年能源產業的表現，你會發現這是我們投資組合的重要組成部分。

We actually don't know where that's going to be. It certainly surprised us on the upside this year. I think it's got good potential next year, probably not to the same level, but it's a big part of our portfolio. So yes, we can be optimistic about those kind of categories as well.

我們其實不知道它會在哪裡。今年它確實給我們帶來了意想不到的驚喜。我認為它明年很有潛力，可能不會達到相同的水平，但它是我們投資組合的重要組成部分。所以，是的，我們對這類類別也可以持樂觀態度。

Right, right. Thank you for all the additional color there, Ali. And then speaking of capacity and footprint, last quarter, you noted potential for adds in Europe. I believe it was Southern Europe, but recognizing these projects are long term in nature, has the volume outlook changed either the timing in regard to any potential projects? Or are you still expecting Europe to be pretty tight and needing additional lines in the future? And any early indications that how you think about CapEx in 2026? Thank you for taking the questions.

對，對。謝謝你增添了這麼多色彩，阿里。說到產能和佈局，上個季度您提到了在歐洲增加產能的潛力。我認為是南歐，但考慮到這些項目都是長期項目，業務量前景是否改變了任何潛在項目的進度安排？或者您仍然認為歐洲的運力會非常緊張，未來需要增加運力線路？您目前對2026年的資本支出有何看法？感謝您回答這些問題。

No, pleasure. No, we don't see any change to the timing. So I mean, I think that the Europe market is pretty tight. We're particularly tight on certain sizes, and we'll address that. That definitely cost us some growth this year. Again, it's sort of specialty sizes in the season. We weren't completely able to follow and that cost us a bit of growth Q2 and probably persisted into Q3. So we'll do some projects around that in the off-season. And then, yes, we're running pretty tight. We've got some room for growth with continued improvement in the existing footprint, but we don't see any change to the timing of needing new capacity.

不，是樂意。不，我們沒有看到時間安排上有任何變化。所以我覺得歐洲市場競爭相當激烈。我們對某些尺寸的需求尤其緊張，我們會解決這個問題。這無疑使我們今年的成長受到了一定影響。這又是當季的特殊尺寸。我們未能完全跟上步伐，這導致我們在第二季度損失了一些成長，而且這種情況可能持續到了第三季。所以我們會在休賽期圍繞這個主題來開展一些項目。是的，我們的時間確實很緊張。我們還有一些成長空間，可以透過不斷改進現有規模來實現，但我們預計對新產能的需求時間不會有任何變化。

Europe is a long-term growth market. It's been talked about on other calls. We're talking 3% to 4%. Some years, it's been more, some years a bit less, but it's been very consistent as per capita can penetration grows. So yeah, we don't see anything. It's obviously had a bit of a weak summer, particularly in the beer category, but we're very optimistic about that market. And as we said in the remarks, we see ourselves growing in line with the market in '26.

歐洲是一個長期成長型市場。其他電話會議上也討論過這個問題。我們說的是3%到4%。有些年份會多一些，有些年份會少一些，但隨著人均罐頭滲透率的增長，整體上一直保持著非常穩定的增長。是的，我們什麼也沒看到。顯然，今年夏天市場表現有些疲軟，尤其是啤酒市場，但我們對這個市場非常樂觀。正如我們在演講中所說，我們預計在 2026 年我們將與市場同步成長。

Thank you again, Ollie.

再次感謝你，奧利。

Pleasure.

樂趣。

Stefan Diaz, Morgan Stanley.

Stefan Diaz，摩根士丹利。

Hi, Ollie. Hi, Stefan. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just sticking with Europe. So obviously, the can continues to outperform underlying liquids volumes in the region. But in your opinion, how much more runway does the can have for outperformance? Like, for example, if overall liquid demand remains flat to down in Europe, can the can still grow in 2026, '27, and beyond?

嗨，奧利。你好，斯特凡。謝謝您回答我的問題。或許就待在歐洲吧。顯然，該地區罐裝飲料的銷量持續超過液態飲料的銷量。但你認為，罐式引擎還有多少超越對手的空間？例如，如果歐洲整體流動性需求保持穩定或下降，那麼罐頭食品在 2026 年、2027 年及以後還能成長嗎？

Yeah, definitely. So I think if you look at the things that drive the growth, I mean, there's still significant under-penetration of cans relative to other geographies. Some of that is legacy with the German deposit scheme that took all cans out of the German market. So you still see German can growth at very high levels, obviously, a big market.

是的，當然。所以我覺得，如果你看看推動成長的因素，我的意思是，與其他地區相比，罐裝飲料的滲透率仍然明顯偏低。部分原因是德國押金制度的遺留問題，該制度將所有罐頭食品從德國市場清除。所以，德國罐頭產品的成長仍然保持在非常高的水平，這顯然是一個很大的市場。

You have growth out of two-way and plastic in different parts of the region, Eastern Europe. We have the ongoing sustainability advantages of the can relative to other substrates. And obviously, you have in Europe, particularly the energy cost situation that's impacting glass. So we see a lot of runway for growth for the can in Europe. And I think that view is shared right across the industry and is backed up every quarter. If we look at our performance in the quarter, when we look at our markets that we were in, we were a touch behind, but only a touch behind.

在東歐地區的各個地方，雙向塑膠製品都有所成長。與其他基材相比，罐體具有持續的可持續性優勢。顯然，在歐洲，尤其是能源成本情勢對玻璃產業造成了影響。因此，我們看到罐裝飲料在歐洲還有很大的成長空間。我認為這種觀點在整個行業中都很普遍，並且每個季度都得到了證實。如果我們回顧本季的業績，看看我們所處的市場，我們略微落後，但只是略微落後而已。

So I think there are always geographic and category mix impacts in individual company growth rates. But overall, we're happy with our performance, and we definitely see a lot of runway for can growth in Europe in the next few years, yeah.

所以我認為，地域和品類組合對單一公司的成長率總是會產生影響。但總的來說，我們對自己的表現感到滿意，而且我們絕對認為未來幾年歐洲罐頭市場還有很大的成長空間。

Great. That's helpful. And then maybe just can you -- if you could just touch on quarter-to-date trends by geography and maybe particularly if you could go into detail on Brazil, just given how weak this past quarter was on an industry level and just now how we're in the busy season down there. And then if I could just slip in one more. I might have missed this in the release, but can you quantify the IFRS 15 contract timing benefit? And is this potentially a headwind in 4Q? Thank you.

偉大的。那很有幫助。然後，您能否談談本季至今按地區劃分的趨勢，特別是詳細談談巴西的情況，因為上個季度巴西的行業表現非常疲軟，而且現在巴西正處於旺季。如果我能再加一個就好了。我可能在發佈內容中錯過了這一點，但您能否量化 IFRS 15 合約時間優勢？這是否會對第四季構成不利影響？謝謝。

Sure. So I think -- I mean, quarter-to-date, I think trends look good, very much in line with guidance across all geographies. I think Brazil, clearly significantly better where we're guiding. If we're at the top end of the guidance, then we expect Brazil to be flat growth year-on-year, which obviously is, therefore, growth in Q4. And we already see in October significantly better performance than Q3.

當然。所以我覺得——我的意思是，從本季至今來看，趨勢看起來不錯，與各地區的指導方針非常吻合。我認為，在我們指導的方向上，巴西的情況顯然要好得多。如果我們達到預期目標的上限，那麼我們預計巴西的年增長率將與去年持平，因此，第四季度顯然會實現成長。我們已經看到，10月份的業績明顯優於第三季。

So we do see improvement. I think it's still a bit on the weak side, and we're still maintaining a cautious stance in our guide, but it's definitely better than Q3. And I think that Europe and North America would just say absolutely in line with where we expected. So it seems that there's a reasonable degree of forecast stability in our markets right now. I think the specific question on IFRS 15 is just a couple of million dollars, right? And maybe, Stefan, I don't know that we anticipate anything particular in Q4, but I'll hand that to you.

所以，我們確實看到了進步。我認為它仍然有點疲軟，我們在預測中仍然保持謹慎態度，但它肯定比第三季要好。我認為歐洲和北美方面會表示，這完全符合我們的預期。所以目前看來，我們市場的預測具有相當程度的穩定性。我認為關於 IFRS 15 的具體問題只涉及幾百萬美元，對吧？或許，斯特凡，我不知道我們對第四季有什麼特別的預期，但我同意你的看法。

No, I don't think we expect a major headwind in Q4 from IFRS. And yeah, it's around a couple of million dollars in the Americas and then also a few more in the European segment. But net-net, yes, we don't expect a major headwind from there.

不，我認為我們預計第四季不會受到國際財務報告準則（IFRS）的重大不利影響。是的，在美洲地區大約有幾百萬美元，在歐洲地區也有幾百萬美元。但總的來說，是的，我們預計不會受到太大的阻礙。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Thank you, Stefan.

謝謝你，斯特凡。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

Hey, good morning. I just had two questions. One on the cost side is within your comments, you talked about less input cost recovery in Europe. I assume that's non-metals related, but can you talk about what that is and if that is something that can be recovered? And then with North America with some of the temporary network issues you've called out, I don't know if you can size that at all? And is that something that's resolved? Or is this just an effect of a tighter market maybe leading to inefficiencies that persist? Thanks.

嘿，早安。我只有兩個問題。成本方面，您在評論中提到了歐洲投入成本回收較少的問題。我猜想這與金屬無關，但您能談談那是什麼，以及那是否可以回收嗎？至於北美地區，正如您所提到的，存在一些暫時的網路問題，我不知道您是否能夠對此進行評估？這個問題解決了嗎？或者這只是市場趨緊導致效率低並持續存在的結果？謝謝。

Sure. So taking the North American one first, I think those issues are resolved as we go into Q4. I think that they were a consequence of our strong growth in the first half, particularly on certain sizes. So we ended up with the network. We're basically pushing the shortage around different sizes across the summer. It landed on 12 ounce in Q3. And I think we mentioned in the remarks -- or I mentioned in one of my earlier replies that we probably lost 1 to 2 points of growth in North America in Q3, which was everything, including metal supply issues and some of our network and plant issues.

當然。先來看北美的情況，我認為這些問題在進入第四季時都會得到解決。我認為這是上半年我們強勁成長的結果，尤其是某些尺寸的商品。所以最後我們得到了這個網路。我們基本上是在整個夏季將短缺問題分散到不同尺寸上。第三季度，其重量降至 12 盎司。我想我們在之前的發言中提到過——或者我在之前的回復中提到過——我們在第三季度北美地區的增長可能下降了 1 到 2 個百分點，這其中涉及到所有方面，包括金屬供應問題以及我們的一些網絡和工廠問題。

So yeah, we see those as fully resolved going into Q4. And the issue we're really very focused on is the metal supply, but as I say, cautiously optimistic at this point. And then the input cost, yeah, we talked about it earlier in the year. Nothing's changed here. This is European aluminum prices. It's really a legacy of the Ukraine war and the energy spike. We managed to hold that off for several years. But in the end, there is energy and aluminum and those prices came through. And I think there has been commentary certainly at least in one of our peers on similar lines.

是的，我們認為這些問題在第四季之前都將徹底解決。我們目前真正關注的問題是金屬供應，但正如我所說，目前我們持謹慎樂觀態度。還有投入成本，是的，我們年初的時候討論過這個問題。這裡什麼都沒變。這是歐洲鋁價。這其實是烏克蘭戰爭和能源價格飆升留下的後遺症。我們設法拖延了好幾年。但最終，能源和鋁的價格還是漲了。而且我認為，至少我們的一位同行也發表了類似的評論。

So I think that not surprisingly, eventually, that energy shock translated through into some input cost price rises and that impact came particularly for us this year, it's different for different players depending on their supply mix. So nothing new there, exactly what we talked about earlier in the year.

所以我認為，不出所料，能源衝擊最終轉化為一些投入成本價格上漲，而這種影響今年對我們來說尤其明顯，但對於不同的參與者來說，情況則因他們的供應結構而異。所以沒什麼新鮮的，跟我們年初討論的內容一模一樣。

Okay, thank you, I'll leave it there.

好的，謝謝，我就說到這裡吧。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital.

Arun Viswanathan，RBC Capital。

Great, thanks. I just wanted to get your thoughts on EBITDA and I guess, growth as you look into '26. So it looks like you're kind of -- on a $725 million or so run rate on an annualized basis. If you think about maybe low-single-digit growth as you discussed for '26, it seems like you are executing relatively well. So does that translate to, say, maybe mid-single-digit growth on the EBITDA line? And then maybe is there any further leverage as you delever? Or how should we think about that progressing forward as you look at it?

太好了，謝謝。我只是想聽聽您對 EBITDA 以及展望 2026 年的成長有何看法。所以看起來你們的年化收入大概在 7.25 億美元左右。如果你考慮到像你之前討論的 2026 年可能只有個位數的成長率，那麼你目前的執行情況似乎還不錯。那麼，這是否意味著 EBITDA 指標將實現個位數中段的成長呢？那麼，在去槓桿化過程中，是否還有其他可以利用的槓桿效應呢？或者，從你的角度來看，我們該如何看待這件事的進展？

Yeah, sure. Look, obviously, we don't guide '26 until our Q4s, and there's good reason for that. We're still rolling up the budget and all the detail. And also, there's still, at this time of the year, quite a bit of volume still under discussion or moving around. So we won't be guiding specifically. But if I just talk at the highest level, so I think I didn't say we were growing low single digits next year. I think what I said was Europe, we see growing 3% to 4% and us broadly in line.

當然可以。顯然，我們直到第四季才會發布 2026 年的業績指引，這是有充分理由的。我們仍在匯總預算和所有細節。而且，在每年的這個時候，仍然有很多交易量在討論或進行中。所以，我們不會提供具體指導。但如果我僅從最高層面來說，我想我並沒有說過我們明年的成長率會是低個位數。我想我之前說的是，歐洲預計將成長3%到4%，而我們大致也符合這個預期。

I said I think Brazil will grow low to mid, us broadly in line. And I said I think North America will grow 1% to 2% and will be softer than the market. So we don't yet have a global number. I think we definitely see earnings growth in '26 over '25. So some of those growth positions, particularly Europe, Brazil, we also see good operational cost savings.

我說我認為巴西的成長速度將處於中低水平，與我們大致相同的水平。我說，我認為北美地區的成長率將為 1% 到 2%，並且會低於市場平均值。所以我們目前還沒有全球統一的標準。我認為2026年的獲利肯定會比2025年成長。因此，在一些成長點，特別是歐洲和巴西，我們也看到了良好的營運成本節約。

We've got a lot of opportunity in plants, in freight, in lightweighting, the usual places where can makers make operational cost savings, input costs, we're hopeful for '26 as well at this point. And obviously, we'll be keeping a tight eye as we always do on SG&A. Mix, we'd hope to be a tailwind '26. So we see a number of areas where we see earnings growth in '26, and we definitely see earnings growth over 2025, but we won't guide specifically on that until February.

我們在工廠、貨運、輕量化等領域有很多機會，這些都是罐頭製造商可以節省營運成本和投入成本的常見領域，目前我們對 2026 年也抱有希望。當然，我們會像往常一樣密切注意銷售、一般及行政費用。Mix，我們希望成為2026年的順風。因此，我們看到許多領域在 2026 年有望實現盈利增長，而且我們肯定看到 2025 年後盈利將持續增長，但我們不會在 2 月份之前給出具體指引。

Great, thanks for that. And then maybe we can just discuss Europe just briefly. So in North America, we obviously saw a nice proliferation of new categories in non-alcoholic beverages. Could you just discuss maybe where we are in that trajectory within Europe? Is there maybe a tailwind that's coming? Or are we obviously already seeing it? And would you expect that to drive your results a little bit higher? Or would you be still maybe below the market because of the beer exposure?

太好了，謝謝。然後我們或許可以簡單聊聊歐洲。因此，在北美，我們顯然看到了非酒精飲料新類別的蓬勃發展。您能否談談我們目前在歐洲的發展軌跡中所處的位置？或許會有順風到來？或者我們其實已經看到了？你認為這會使你的業績略有提升嗎？或者，由於啤酒業的投資，你的股價可能仍然低於市場平均？

Yeah. I mean we saw a bit of that in Q3, as I mentioned. So I mean, if you look where our Q3 growth came from, it came particularly out of the energy category, a bit like North America, came out of some of these faster-growing categories like ready-to-drink teas, coffees, wines, waters, we're strong in all those categories. So we definitely saw that. But I think the other piece with Europe, I think we also see general soft drinks in growth with substitution of plastic and also some two-way systems being substituted still.

是的。我的意思是，正如我之前提到的，我們在第三季已經看到了一些這種情況。所以我的意思是，如果你看看我們第三季的成長來自哪裡，它主要來自能量飲料類別，有點像北美的情況，來自一些成長較快的類別，例如即飲茶、咖啡、葡萄酒、水，我們在所有這些類別中都很強。所以我們確實看到了這一點。但我認為歐洲的另一面是，隨著塑膠的替代，軟性飲料的整體銷售量也在成長，一些雙向系統也在被取代。

So it's definitely not reliant on those more innovative categories to get growth in Europe. You can get growth fully in the core, if you like. And then I think what we're saying for 2026 is absolutely that this looks like a poor year for beer. There's no particular reason to believe that continues. So assuming beer stabilizes more into normal growth rates, then we would be in the 3% to 4% range, and that would be very good growth for all the can makers in Europe.

因此，它在歐洲的成長絕對不依賴那些更具創新性的品類。如果你願意，你可以在核心領域獲得全面發展。所以我覺得我們對 2026 年的預測絕對是：今年對啤酒來說會是個糟糕的一年。沒有特別的理由相信這種情況會繼續下去。因此，假設啤酒的成長率趨於穩定，達到正常水平，那麼成長率將在 3% 到 4% 之間，這對歐洲所有罐頭製造商來說都將是非常不錯的成長。

Thanks for that. If I can just squeeze in one last one. The recapitalization or the new structure -- do you see that at all impacting maybe your operations? Or does it allow for maybe a different way of thinking about capital allocation? Or is it just not really that impactful? Thanks.

謝謝。如果我能擠出最後一個就好了。資本重組或新結構—您認為這會對您的營運產生任何影響嗎？或者，它是否允許我們以不同的方式思考資本配置？或者說，它其實沒有那麼大的影響力？謝謝。

Yeah. I think, too early to say anything on it. Obviously, the transaction hasn't closed. It's progressing well from what we understand, but too early to comment on anything, I think, with relation to that.

是的。我覺得現在下任何結論都為時過早。顯然，交易尚未完成。據我們了解，進展順利，但我認為現在就此發表任何評論都為時過早。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Mike Roxland，Truist Securities。

Yeah, thank you, Ollie, Stefan, and Stephen for taking my questions, and congrats on all the progress. Ollie, I just wanted to follow up (inaudible) on a comment you made in one of the prior questions about the growth you lost in Europe. And you mentioned also on the last quarterly call, calling out 1 or 2 points of growth in Europe because you couldn't pivot into smaller formats. You had good growth in soft drinks and energy. But given your existing beer position, which you noted is 40%-plus in Europe, you couldn't make that transition.

是的，謝謝 Ollie、Stefan 和 Stephen 回答我的問題，也恭喜你們取得的所有進展。Ollie，我只是想就你在之前的一個問題中提到的關於你在歐洲失去的增長發表一些評論（聽不清楚）。您在上一次季度電話會議上也提到，由於無法轉型為規模較小的形式，歐洲市場成長了 1 到 2 個百分點。你們的軟性飲料和能量飲料業務成長良好。但鑑於你目前在歐洲的啤酒市佔率超過 40%，你無法進行這種轉型。

So can you just tell us how you expect to make that transition, how do you expect to become a little bit more nimble to target those growth categories to maybe try to minimize beer? Obviously, it didn't sound like you did that -- you didn't make much of a shift in 3Q, but can you tell us how you're going to ultimately do that, be 4Q, early 2026, how you're pivoting your mix to capture stronger growth end markets relative to beer in Europe, please? Thank you.

那麼，您能否告訴我們您打算如何實現這種轉變，您打算如何變得更加靈活地瞄準那些成長類別，並嘗試減少啤酒的份額？顯然，聽起來你並沒有做到這一點——你在第三季度並沒有做出太大的改變，但你能告訴我們你最終將如何做到這一點嗎？到第四季度，也就是 2026 年初，你將如何調整你的產品組合，以抓住相對於歐洲啤酒而言成長更強勁的終端市場？謝謝。

Yes, sure. So look, we're doing a couple of projects in the network, converting lines into those sizes, making lines flexible to allow us to be more agile in the season. So yeah, we've got a couple of projects on the books for Q4, Q1 that will then have impact and be -- put us in a better position in Q2, Q3 next year. And then obviously, any capacity we're building out in the next few years, we'll make sure we're covering the growth sizes in the market. So we think we'll be in pretty good shape once we do these next few projects.

當然可以。所以你看，我們正在網路中開展幾個項目，將線路轉換成這些尺寸，使線路更加靈活，以便我們在旺季能夠更加靈活地應對變化。是的，我們已經在第四季和第一季安排了一些項目，這些項目將會產生影響，並使我們在明年第二季和第三季處於更有利的地位。顯然，在未來幾年裡，我們擴建的任何產能，都會確保能夠滿足市場成長的需求。所以我們認為，完成接下來的幾個項目後，我們的狀況就會相當不錯。

Got it. And when you think about some of the conversions that you're doing or the flexibility that you're adding, when you add new lines, I guess, are you going to build those new lines with this functionality, with this flexibility to be able to switch sizes more easily in case market dynamics change?

知道了。當你考慮你正在進行的一些轉換或你正在增加的靈活性，以及​​當你添加新產品線時，我想，你會不會構建這些新產品線時就具備這種功能和靈活性，以便在市場動態發生變化時能夠更輕鬆地切換尺寸？

Yes, definitely. I mean, it costs a lot less if you do it at the beginning than when you try and retrofit, especially when you try and retrofit much older lines. So absolutely, I think it makes a lot of sense at the minute. The market is quite dynamic with different products coming to market, and we've seen in different summers, different products doing better or worse. So yeah, it definitely makes sense for us as we build out new capacity to put that flexibility into the lines for sure.

是的，當然。我的意思是，如果在一開始就進行改造，成本會比事後改造要低得多，尤其是在改造老舊線路時。所以，我完全同意，目前來看，這樣做很有道理。市場瞬息萬變，各種產品層出不窮，我們在不同的夏季也看到不同的產品表現有好有壞。所以，是的，在我們擴大新產能的過程中，為生產線增加這種彈性對我們來說絕對是有意義的。

Got it. Okay. And then my last question is on North America. You mentioned the network issue has been resolved, and you remain optimistic on the metal supply issue resolving itself at some point. But fair to say, is there a risk to that 1% to 2% growth that you're targeting for North America next year should these metal supply issues persist into 2026?

知道了。好的。我的最後一個問題是關於北美的。您提到網路問題已經解決，並且您仍然樂觀地認為金屬供應問題最終也會自行解決。但公平地說，如果這些金屬供應問題持續到 2026 年，您為北美設定的明年 1% 到 2% 的成長目標是否會面臨風險？

Yeah. I guess, Mike, just to be clear, the 1% to 2% is the market growth, right? So we're saying we expect to be a bit softer than that. I don't see a risk to the industry or to ourselves in terms of metal supply next year. So obviously, we have one of the two new mills ramping up as we speak. That's extremely helpful to the situation. We expect the operational issues that are being suffered by Novelis to be resolved. Obviously, they're working very hard to address them. And then equally, we've all -- anybody that's in the market is sourcing other sources of aluminum and successfully doing so.

是的。麥克，我確認一下，1%到2%是指市場成長率，對吧？所以我們的意思是，我們預計會比這稍微溫和一些。我認為明年金屬供應方面，對產業或我們本身都不會構成風險。很顯然，我們兩家新工廠中的一家正在加緊生產。這對解決問題非常有幫助。我們預期Novelis目前遇到的營運問題能夠解決。顯然，他們正在努力解決這些問題。同樣地，我們所有人——任何身處市場的人都在尋找其他鋁源，並且都成功地做到了這一點。

So I think with the flexibility we all have in our supply chain with multiple sources of supply with the fixes they're doing and with the new mill ramping up, I don't see a risk of industry volumes or AMP volumes for metal supply in 2026.

因此，我認為，鑑於我們供應鏈的靈活性，以及​​多個供應來源、他們正在進行的改進措施和新工廠的投產，我不認為2026年金屬供應的行業產量或AMP產量會面臨風險。

Got it. Thank you very much. Appreciate all the color.

知道了。非常感謝。欣賞這繽紛的色彩。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝你，麥克。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

安東尼佩蒂納裡，花旗銀行。

Good morning. Ollie, I think you talked about kind of a bad year in beer in Europe, maybe not expected to repeat next year. And I'm just wondering if you can talk a little bit more about the puts and takes there in terms of what you think really drove the weakness in Europe this year, whether it was consumer, weather? And then, I mean, in North America, there's been a lot of discussion around secular pressure on beer, given lifestyle changes, especially with younger consumers. Does that have a parallel in Europe? Or just wondering if you can kind of give us your big picture thoughts on beer into next year?

早安.奧利，我想你之前說過歐洲啤酒產業今年情況不太好，可能明年不會再重蹈覆轍。我想請您再詳細談談今年歐洲股市疲軟的真正原因，您認為是什麼因素導致了這個局面，是消費者因素還是天氣因素？然後，我的意思是，在北美，鑑於生活方式的改變，尤其是年輕消費者的生活方式改變，人們對啤酒面臨的世俗壓力進行了許多討論。歐洲有類似的情況嗎？或者，您能否大致談談您對明年啤酒產業發展趨勢的看法？

Yeah. Look, I think it's definitely too early to call a secular shift in Europe. I mean we don't have the depth of other products that we see in the North American market, other alcohol products with similar drinking characteristics that you have in North America. I think we've had a poor year. I don't think weather has really added. I think there's definitely some consumer weakness, which is hitting the category.

是的。我認為現在就斷言歐洲正在發生世俗變革還為時過早。我的意思是，我們沒有像北美市場上那樣豐富的產品線，也沒有像北美市場上那樣具有類似飲用特性的其他酒精產品。我認為我們今年過得很糟糕。我不認為天氣因素起到了作用。我認為消費者的疲軟肯定對該品類造成了衝擊。

We only generally work out later what the players did, were they promoting, not promoting. So we don't have all the data on that yet. So I think my view on this is that it's a big category. It's got some very strong players. And I think they won't be happy with this year at all and that they'll be putting in place strategies to reverse that into 2026. And as I say, I don't -- I think it's definitely too early to call any secular shift in European drinking behavior.

我們通常只能事後才能弄清楚球員們做了什麼，他們是在做宣傳還是沒有宣傳。所以我們還沒有掌握這方面的所有數據。所以我認為，這算是一個很大的類別。它擁有一些實力非常強勁的球員。我認為他們絕對不會對今年的結果感到滿意，並且他們會制定策略來扭轉局面，爭取在 2026 年實現這一目標。正如我所說，我認為現在就斷言歐洲飲酒行為發生了任何長期變化還為時過早。

Got it. Got it. That's helpful. And then based on kind of an early view, do you expect that the aluminum conversion cost headwinds maybe continue in Europe next year? Or are there maybe some savings that we should think about that could help you reach that normalized operating leverage? Or just how should we think about that?

知道了。知道了。那很有幫助。那麼，根據目前的初步判斷，您認為明年歐洲鋁材轉換成本上升的逆風是否會持續？或者，我們可以考慮一些節省成本的措施，以幫助您達到正常的營運槓桿水準？或者我們應該如何看待這個問題？

I don't think we think there's necessarily savings, but there's no question that the step-up that we had this year moderates very significantly. So this was our step-up. I think if you look back over '23, '24, we really held it back despite the increase in energy costs that had flowed through. So this is where we took it. I mean the European market is tight on aluminum. So I don't see a huge savings opportunity there until there is more capacity put into the market, it needs that. But fortunately, there are significant import routes that are pretty competitive. And so I don't also see a major headwind, and we'll be exploiting on those routes. But yeah, no savings, I think, but a definite moderating of some of the headwinds that we had this year.

我認為我們可能不會認為會有節省，但毫無疑問，今年的成長幅度已經顯著放緩。所以這是我們邁出的一步。我認為，回顧 2023 年和 2024 年，儘管能源成本上漲，我們仍然控制了局面。所以我們就把它帶到這裡來了。我的意思是，歐洲市場鋁供應緊張。因此，我認為在市場產能增加之前，不會有太大的節省空間，而市場也確實需要更多產能。但幸運的是，存在一些競爭非常激烈的重要進口路線。因此，我認為不會遇到太大的阻力，我們將利用這些路線。但確實，我認為沒有節省，但今年我們遇到的一些不利因素肯定有所緩解。

Okay, that's helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的，這很有幫助。我把它翻過來。

Thanks, Anthony.

謝謝你，安東尼。

Gabe Hajde, Wells Fargo Securities.

Gabe Hajde，富國證券。

Ali, Stefan, good morning. I think earlier this week was the first time that we had heard that there might have been a little bit of movement in terms of contracts and maybe customers, maybe on the private-label side. You mentioned next year that there's going to be, again, for your system, some changes and maybe underperform the market a tad. I'm just curious, as you're going through those negotiations with customers, what are their talking points as it relates to -- I mean, you already called out proximity to customer filling sites, so that makes sense to me. But just price or service levels, quality, et cetera, that's informing some of those decisions.

阿里，斯特凡，早安。我認為本週早些時候，我們第一次聽說在合約和客戶方面可能出現了一些變化，也許是在自有品牌方面。您提到明年您的系統將再次進行一些更改，並且可能會略微跑輸市場。我只是好奇，當您與客戶進行談判時，他們有哪些論點——我的意思是，您已經提到了靠近客戶加油站這一點，所以我覺得這很有道理。但價格、服務水準、品質等等，這些因素都會影響到一些決定。

Sure. Yeah. Look, as I said in the remarks, I think that by far, the dominant factor that we've seen has been this footprint issue. As I said, we had planned back in '21, '22 to put some capacity in the north, and then we had -- people were very tight. So we had a contract that we served out of a long freight lane. And when we chose not to put the capacity in, obviously, we still have the contract for a few years. But then when it runs out, it's naturally going back to a closer can plant. And then as I said, we have the opposite effect where some of the new capacity that's come to North America obviously changes footprint dynamics for customers.

當然。是的。正如我在發言中所說，我認為到目前為止，我們所看到的主要因素是足跡問題。正如我所說，我們在 2021 年、2022 年就計劃在北部增加一些產能，但當時人們的資金非常緊張。所以我們簽訂了一份合同，透過一條漫長的貨運路線提供服務。即使我們選擇不增加產能，顯然，我們仍然要履行幾年的合約。但當罐頭用完後，自然就會運回離家更近的罐頭廠。正如我所說，我們也看到了相反的效果，北美新增的一些產能顯然改變了客戶的業務佈局動態。

So they get a plant that's actually nearer to them than they used to have and that our legacy plant is placed. And then we also had one situation with customer that halfway through the process, they had their own footprint review, which resulted in a filling location that we serve closing down. So I think if we look at the overall reason for softness in '26, its majority is down to footprint. I think the market is competitive, but I think it's normally competitive maybe after a few years where it was so tight through COVID, but I think it's in a normal competitive environment. And we don't hear anything particular on service. We generally get very high ratings on service and very good feedback for relationship management and customer support.

所以他們得到了一棵比以前離他們更近的植物，而我們的傳承植物也安放在那裡。此外，我們也遇到過一個客戶的情況，在流程進行到一半時，他們進行了自己的足跡審查，結果導致我們服務的某個填充點關閉。所以我覺得，如果我們看一下 2026 年表現疲軟的整體原因，主要原因在於足跡。我認為市場競爭激烈，但我覺得在經歷了新冠疫情導致的幾年緊張局面後，市場競爭已經恢復正常，處於正常的競爭環境。我們沒有聽到任何關於服務的特別消息。我們通常在服務方面獲得非常高的評價，在客戶關係管理和客戶支援方面也獲得了非常好的回饋。

So I think, predominantly, we're talking about footprint-related changes and the fact that there is some capacity in the market for people to make moves.

所以我認為，我們主要討論的是與佔地面積相關的變化，以及市場上存在一定的搬遷空間。

Okay. Two questions on aluminum. Again, earlier this week, I think it was mentioned that all-in aluminum costs kind of crept up above, I think, all-time highs that we even saw during the pandemic. I think we were talking about maybe penny and a half or so of inflation just from raw material costs. That's maybe closer to $0.03 now if we were to mark-to-market. And again, I appreciate your customers hedge and probably roll that in three years in advance. So it's not going to all hit at once.

好的。關於鋁的兩個問題。本週早些時候，我記得有人提到，鋁的總成本已經攀升至歷史最高水平，甚至超過了疫情期間的歷史最高水平。我想我們當時討論的只是原料成本造成的通貨膨脹，大概就一便士半左右。如果按市值計價，現在的價格可能更接近 0.03 美元。再次感謝貴公司客戶提前三年進行避險，並可能進行展期操作。所以不會一下子全部爆發。

But I'm just curious, when we've seen this type of inflation through the system, is it typically -- do they typically address that on an annual basis with pricing on the shelf? And then maybe relatedly, we observed a decent amount of promotional activity, especially on the carbonated soft drink and energy drink side in the first half of this year, maybe even the first eight, nine months.

但我很好奇，當我們看到這種類型的通貨膨脹透過整個系統出現時，他們通常會出現——他們通常會透過調整貨架價格來解決這個問題嗎？然後，或許與之相關的是，我們觀察到今年上半年，甚至可能是前八、九個月，碳酸軟性飲料和能量飲料領域出現了相當多的促銷活動。

Should we be mindful or thinking about anything? You mentioned volumes or sell into the channel decelerating a little bit in the second half here versus the first half. Is there any sort of dynamic in the first half of '26 that we could be mindful of maybe volumes actually -- industry volumes down in the first half and maybe growing in the second half, just given the tough comps?

我們該注意什麼或思考什麼嗎？您提到，與上半年相比，下半年通路內的成交量或銷售量略有放緩。2026 年上半年是否存在某種動態值得我們關注，例如銷售方面——考慮到去年同期基數較高，行業銷售上半年可能會下降，下半年可能會成長？

Yeah. I think it's a good question. Look, I think you can't say there's no impact from that level of increase of aluminum pricing. So I think you have to assume there's some risk of inflation on the shelf and that that has some impact on volumes because the categories are elastic. I think, trying to predict exactly what our customers and retailers do with that is a fool's game.

是的。我覺得這是個好問題。我認為，你不能說鋁價如此大幅上漲沒有影響。所以我認為必須假設貨架上有一定的通膨風險，而且這會對銷售產生一定影響，因為各個品類的需求彈性較大。我認為，試圖準確預測我們的客戶和零售商會如何利用這些資訊是徒勞無功的。

I think it depends a lot on where they are. They've taken a lot of price the last few years. And so they've probably got some firepower, which I think they deployed this year. I think not because of any -- personally, I don't think it's because of any particular tariff-related insights. I think it's more that they have got that firepower in their margin structures and they can use it to drive volumes. And they are looking to balance cans versus plastic in their portfolios for all sorts of reasons.

我認為這很大程度取決於他們身處何地。過去幾年他們付出了很多代價。所以他們可能擁有一些火力，我認為他們今年已經部署了這些火力。我認為這並非因為任何東西——就我個人而言，我認為這並非因為任何與關稅相關的特殊見解。我認為更確切地說，是他們的利潤率結構讓他們擁有了強大的實力，他們可以利用這種實力來推動交易量成長。他們出於各種原因，正在尋求在產品組合中平衡罐裝和塑膠製品的比例。

So I think predicting exactly what happens in '26 is very difficult to do. We're maintaining a 1% to 2% stance on North America growth for next year with us softer. And that's probably because we are being a little bit cautious around that issue. So yeah, I think something is flowing through. You can't say it has no impact, but I think that hopefully, we see what we're expecting, which is that sort of growth rate.

所以我認為要準確預測 2026 年會發生什麼事非常困難。我們對明年北美地區的經濟成長預期維持在 1% 到 2% 的水平，但成長速度會更慢。這大概是因為我們在這個問題上比較謹慎吧。是的，我覺得有東西在流動。你不能說它沒有影響，但我認為，希望我們能看到我們所期望的結果，那就是那種成長率。

Well, let's be honest, glass and other substrates are not immune, right? Like everything has embedded energy costs. So I'm curious --

說實話，玻璃和其他基材也難逃此劫，對吧？就像所有東西都蘊含著能源成本一樣。所以我很好奇--

No, look, Gabe, I think that's really important -- sorry, Gabe, I was just going to build on that, right, which is that every quarter, we see that the can is outgrowing the other substrates. So then I think you take the sustainability piece, you take the energy cost piece, you take the fundamental cost structure of cans in North America. You look at the recapitalization that we've done as can makers and that our suppliers have done on the can sheet side, I think that the industry is very significantly more efficient than 10 years ago, and that is going to play through into overall cost structure. So yeah, that's why I'm very bullish about long-term can growth rates in North America. I think there is a little bit of a headwind potentially from the tariff situation in the next 12, 18 months.

不，聽著，蓋布，我認為這非常重要——抱歉，蓋布，我正要繼續說下去，對吧，那就是每個季度，我們都看到罐頭比其他基質長得更快。所以，我認為你應該考慮永續性因素、能源成本因素以及北美罐頭的基本成本結構。看看我們製罐商所做的資本重組，以及我們的供應商在罐板方面所做的資本重組，我認為該行業的效率比 10 年前要高得多，這將對整體成本結構產生影響。所以，這就是為什麼我對北美罐頭食品的長期成長率非常看好的原因。我認為未來 12 到 18 個月內，關稅狀況可能會帶來一些不利影響。

Understood. Last one, and it's just sort of digging into the supply chain a little bit. Obviously, it's been, I don't know, maybe 40 years that we've had new rolling capacity here in North America. Does that -- that does not address any sort of the ingot cost, Midwest premium cost that's embedded in. This is just more about localizing that can sheet supply. And so there's better efficiency, I guess, from a logistics standpoint.

明白了。最後一個，就是稍微深入探討供應鏈。顯然，北美已經有，我不知道，大概40年沒有新增滾動產能了。這樣做——這並沒有解決任何金錠成本、中西部溢價成本等問題。這更多的是關於本地化供應的問題。因此，從物流角度來看，效率更高了。

So then we got to wait to see what happens politically if there's any change for cost structure for aluminum. And then in Europe, we're reading articles about -- they're frustrated that they're actually exporting scrap to the US because maybe apparently, that's a way to circumvent some of the tariffs. Is that coming up in conversations in terms of cost of aluminum or can sheet over in Europe? Thank you.

所以接下來我們只能等待政治局勢的發展，看看鋁的成本結構是否會有任何變化。然後，在歐洲，我們看到一些文章說——他們很沮喪，因為他們實際上正在向美國出口廢料，因為這可能顯然是規避一些關稅的一種方法。在歐洲討論鋁或鋁板成本時，是否會提到這個問題？謝謝。

Yeah. So look, I think on North America, obviously, those mills are massively helpful to the industry, both in terms of supply, but also long-term cost structure, very efficient. Obviously, they had to get investment-grade returns to be built. So -- but I think those sorts of costs are built into the supply chain now. And so we don't see major changes.

是的。所以你看，我認為在北美，很顯然，這些工廠對產業有很大的幫助，無論是在供應方面，還是在長期成本結構方面，都非常有效率。顯然，他們必須獲得投資等級的回報才能建立起來。所以——但我認為這些成本現在已經包含在供應鏈中了。因此，我們沒有看到重大變化。

I think they're extremely positive for the industry to have that much domestic supply coming on and stopping a lot of the imports that were needed in North America and generally improving the quality of the industry. So that -- they're hugely positive, I think. And then in Europe, yeah, look, I think the scrap situation isn't helpful as a way to avoid tariffs. Obviously, we were already hearing that the US was very short scrap with issues that have gone on in Mexico and related to China, and that was impacting North American can sheet makers. So these flows will have impact, but we don't see them particularly changing what we're seeing in Europe at the moment. So nothing particular to report from that, I think.

我認為這對整個行業來說都是極其積極的，因為國內供應量的增加可以減少北美地區所需的大量進口，並總體上提高行業品質。所以——我認為他們的評價非常正面。而在歐洲，是的，你看，我認為廢料處理並不能幫助人們避免關稅。顯然，我們已經聽說美國對墨西哥和中國發生的問題反應非常激烈，這影響了北美的罐板製造商。因此，這些流動將會產生影響，但我們預期它們不會對目前歐洲的現狀造成特別大的改變。所以我覺得沒什麼特別值得一提的。

Great. Thank you, guys, and good luck.

偉大的。謝謝各位，祝你們好運。

Thanks, Gabe.

謝謝你，蓋布。

At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Oliver Graham for any additional or closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題了。現在我將把電話轉回給奧利佛‧葛理翰先生，請他補充或作總結發言。

Thank you, and thanks to everyone on the call. So just summarizing again, adjusted EBITDA in Q3 grew by 6% at the upper end of our guidance with both segments in line with expectations. And reflecting that resilient performance, we're raising our expectations for full-year adjusted EBITDA. So with that, thanks for joining the call, and we look forward to talking to you again at our Q4 results.

謝謝，也感謝所有參與通話的人。再次總結一下，第三季調整後 EBITDA 成長了 6%，達到我們預期的上限，兩個業務部門都符合預期。鑑於公司業績的穩健成長，我們提高了對全年調整後 EBITDA 的預期。那麼，感謝各位參加本次電話會議，我們期待在第四季業績發表會上再次與您交流。

This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。