Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging SA quarterly results call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Stephen Lyons, please, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Ardagh Metal Packaging SA 季度業績電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。現在，我想將電話轉給投資者關係部的 Stephen Lyons 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's first-quarter 2025 earnings call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the first quarter. I'm joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer; and Stefan Schellinger, AMP's Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，歡迎大家。感謝您今天參加 Ardagh Metal Packaging 2025 年第一季財報電話會議，這次電話會議是在 AMP 早前發布第一季財報之後召開的。今天與我一起出席的還有 AMP 執行長 Oliver Graham；以及 AMP 財務長 Stefan Schellinger。

Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. AMP's earnings release and related materials for the first quarter can be found on AMP's website at ir.ardaghmetalpackaging.com. Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures.

在回答您的問題之前，我們將首先對 AMP 的性能和前景進行一些介紹性說明。AMP 第一季的收益報告和相關資料可以在 AMP 的網站 ir.ardaghmetalpackaging.com 上找到。今天的評論將包括某些前瞻性陳述，並使用非國際財務報告準則的財務指標。

Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statement disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release.

實際結果可能與此類陳述有重大差異。請查看 AMP 前瞻性聲明免責聲明的詳細資訊以及 AMP 收益報告中非國際財務報告準則 (IFRS) 財務指標與國際財務報告準則 (IFRS) 財務指標的對帳。

I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

現在我將電話轉給奧利佛·葛拉漢。

Thanks, Stephen. Our first quarter performance represents a strong start to the year with 6% global shipments growth and 16% adjusted EBITDA growth versus the prior year, ahead of initial guidance and reflecting a strong performance across our business.

謝謝，史蒂芬。我們第一季的業績為今年開了個好頭，全球出貨量較上年同期增長 6%，調整後 EBITDA 增長 16%，超出了初步預期，反映了我們整個業務的強勁表現。

Adjusted EBITDA growth in the quarter was driven by higher volumes and improved fixed cost absorption. The quarter also finished strongly, particularly in the Americas. Against the backdrop of a highly dynamic macro environment, this performance is testament to the resilience of our business, it's well-balanced portfolio of customers and end markets, and the attractiveness of the beverage can as a packaging choice for our customers. At the current time, we anticipate minimal impact to our business arising from the tariff measures announced.

本季調整後的 EBITDA 成長得益於銷售增加和固定成本吸收改善。本季業績表現強勁，尤其是在美洲。在高度動態的宏觀環境背景下，這項業績證明了我們業務的韌性、客戶和終端市場的均衡組合，以及飲料罐作為客戶包裝選擇的吸引力。目前，我們預期宣布的關稅措施對我們的業務的影響微乎其微。

In North America, we have no can-making operations outside of the United States. Across our global operations, our suppliers, customers and end consumers are mostly regional in nature. Our customers' products are defensive and beverage cans are typically resilient across economic cycles. In all our markets, the beverage can continues to gain share in our customers' packaging mix. Despite the uncertain macroeconomic environment, the can attractiveness to our customers supports our expection for continued favorable shipments growth.

在北美，我們在美國以外沒有罐頭製造業務。在我們的全球業務中，我們的供應商、客戶和最終消費者大多是區域性的。我們客戶的產品具有防禦性，飲料罐通常在整個經濟週期中都具有彈性。在我們所有的市場中，飲料罐在客戶的包裝組合中的份額持續增加。儘管宏觀經濟環境不確定，但對客戶的吸引力支持了我們對持續有利的出貨量成長的預期。

Secular trends such as customer innovation saving the beverage can were strongly evident in the first quarter, and we are encouraged by our performance so far this year and our momentum into the second quarter.

客戶創新拯救飲料罐等長期趨勢在第一季表現得非常明顯，我們對今年迄今的表現以及第二季的發展勢頭感到鼓舞。

Before going through the results in further detail, briefly, I'll touch on the tariff situation. So while the situation remains uncertain, based on the current announcements, we do not anticipate a material impact to our business.

在進一步詳細討論結果之前，我將簡要地談談關稅情況。因此，儘管情況仍不確定，但根據目前的公告，我們預計不會對我們的業務產生重大影響。

Our customer contracts have robust pass-through mechanisms for aluminum premiums. In addition, AMP and our customers are largely hedged on metal exposure to mitigate short-term volatility. Specifically in the US the increase in the Midwest premium represents a minimal impact to the overall retail cost of the beverage can, less than $0.01. And this recent increase has also been offset by the decline in the LME price.

我們的客戶合約具有強大的鋁溢價轉嫁機制。此外，AMP 和我們的客戶在很大程度上對金屬風險進行對沖，以減輕短期波動。具體來說，在美國，中西部地區溢價的增加對飲料罐整體零售成本的影響微乎其微，不到 0.01 美元。而近期的漲幅也被LME價格的下跌所抵銷。

Our supply chain and customer filling locations are regional in nature. Again, looking specifically at the US market, our can sheet is largely sourced domestically and end consumption of our customers' products mostly occurs within market. We do not import empty cans and our indirect exposure to customers filled beverage can imports into the US is very low.

我們的供應鏈和客戶填充地點本質上是區域性的。再次，具體來看美國市場，我們的罐板主要來自國內，我們客戶產品的最終消費也主要發生在市場內部。我們不進口空罐，而且我們對美國客戶進口裝滿的飲料罐的間接接觸非常低。

Now looking at AMP's quarter one results by segment. In Europe, first quarter revenue increased by 10% to $528 million or 14% on a constant currency basis compared with the same period in 2024, principally due to volume growth in the pass-through of higher input cost to customers. Shipments grew by 5% for the quarter, ahead of our expectations as the beverage can continues to take share in our customers' packaging mix.

現在按部門查看 AMP 第一季的業績。在歐洲，第一季營收與 2024 年同期相比成長 10%，達到 5.28 億美元，以固定匯率計算成長 14%，這主要是由於將更高的投入成本轉嫁給客戶而導致的銷售成長。由於飲料罐繼續在客戶的包裝組合中佔據份額，本季出貨量增加了 5%，超出了我們的預期。

First quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 14% to $49 million or by 20% on a constant currency basis, driven by volume growth and stronger input cost recovery and lower operating costs, mainly due to stronger fixed cost absorption.

歐洲第一季調整後 EBITDA 成長 14% 至 4,900 萬美元，以固定匯率計算成長 20%，這得益於銷售成長、投入成本回收增強以及營運成本降低，這主要得益於固定成本吸收增強。

Our positive early start to the year supports our expectation for shipments growth of 3% to 4% for full year 2025. Capacity remains tight in the region, but the continued ramp-up of our more recently installed capacity will support this growth.

我們今年年初的積極表現支持了我們對 2025 年全年出貨量成長 3% 至 4% 的預期。該地區的產能仍然緊張，但我們最近安裝的產能持續增加將支持這一增長。

We do not ship any empty cans from Europe into the US and from our customer dialogue, we estimate that our indirect exposure to customers filled beverage can exports to the US is minimal, representing only a very low single-digit percentage of our European ship. In the Americas, revenue in the first quarter increased by 12% to $740 million, which reflected higher volumes and the pass-through of higher input cost to customers.

我們不從歐洲向美國運送任何空罐，並且從與客戶的對話中，我們估計我們對客戶向美國出口的裝滿飲料罐的間接接觸很小，僅占我們歐洲船舶的極低個位數百分比。在美洲，第一季的營收成長了 12%，達到 7.4 億美元，這反映了銷售量的增加以及將更高的投入成本轉嫁給客戶。

Americas adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased by 16% to $106 million due to favorable volume growth, positive mix effects and lower operating costs. In North America, shipments increased by 8% for the quarter, reflecting our portfolio's mix of attractive and growing customers and product categories.

由於銷售成長良好、產品組合效應良好以及營運成本降低，本季美洲區調整後 EBITDA 成長 16%，達到 1.06 億美元。在北美，本季出貨量成長了 8%，反映了我們的產品組合具有吸引力且不斷成長的客戶和產品類別。

Market demand for non-alcoholic beverages was strong in the quarter, supported by continued strengthening our promotional activity, and we believe that we outperformed the market growing ahead of scanner data.

在我們持續加強促銷活動的支持下，本季市場對非酒精飲料的需求強勁，我們相信我們的表現優於掃描儀數據之前的市場成長。

This included strong double-digit growth in our energy drinks category. Given our strong shipment performance in Q1 and continued momentum into the second quarter, we are increasing our guidance for full year North America shipments growth from at least low single digit to mid-single-digit growth.

其中包括能量飲料類別的強勁兩位數成長。鑑於我們第一季強勁的出貨量表現以及第二季的持續成長勢頭，我們將全年北美出貨量成長預期從至少低個位數成長上調至中個位數成長。

In Brazil, first quarter beverage can shipments increased by 4%, outperforming the industry, which grew only modestly. Following a soft start across the first two months of the year, both A&P and the industry recorded strong growth in March, boosted by strong demand from Carnival celebrations.

在巴西，第一季飲料罐出貨量成長了 4%，超過了僅小幅成長的產業。繼今年前兩個月表現疲軟之後，受嘉年華慶祝活動強勁需求的推動，航空與旅遊產品及服務業和整個行業 3 月份均錄得強勁增長。

We retain our guidance for full year shipments growth of Brazil of a low single-digit percent. This maintains our cautious outlook despite our positive start to the year to reflect the volatility in industry shipment trends over the last couple of quarters. We are also now entering the quarter winter selling period in Brazil, which naturally limits our full year visibility.

我們維持對巴西全年出貨量成長率為低個位數的預期。儘管我們今年開局表現良好，但我們仍保持謹慎的態度，以反映過去幾季行業出貨量趨勢的波動。我們現在也正進入巴西的冬季季度銷售期，這自然限制了我們全年的銷售前景。

In summary, we expect shipments growth in the Americas segment of a low to mid-single-digit percentage for 2025, an increase from our previous guide of at least low single digits.

綜上所述，我們預計 2025 年美洲地區的出貨量成長率將達到低至中等個位數百分比，高於我們先前預測的至少低個位數的成長率。

I'll hand over now to Stefan to talk through our financial position before finishing with some concluding remarks.

現在我將把時間交給史蒂芬來討論我們的財務狀況，然後結束一些總結性發言。

Thanks, Ollie, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. We ended the quarter with a robust liquidity position of EUR570 million. The reduction in our liquidity versus the end of last year reflects the usual seasonal working capital outflow in the first quarter. We note that in addition to our strong liquidity position, we have no near-term bond maturities also the currency mix of our debt broadly matches the currency mix of our earnings.

謝謝，奧利，大家早安，下午好。本季末，我們的流動資金狀況強勁，達到 5.7 億歐元。與去年年底相比，我們的流動性有所減少，這反映了第一季通常的季節性營運資金流出。我們注意到，除了我們強大的流動性狀況外，我們沒有近期債券到期，而且我們的債務貨幣組合與我們的收益貨幣組合大致匹配。

Net leverage of 5.5 times net debt over last 12 months adjusted EBITDA similarly reflects the seasonality of our working capital movements. Given the strength of our adjusted EBITDA growth, our leverage ratio is much improved versus the 6.2 times reported in Q1, 2024.

過去 12 個月調整後的 EBITDA 的淨槓桿比率為淨債務的 5.5 倍，同樣反映了我們營運資本變動的季節性。鑑於我們調整後的 EBITDA 成長強勁，我們的槓桿率與 2024 年第一季報告的 6.2 倍相比有了很大改善。

In line with our improved outlook for adjusted EBITDA, our expectation for adjusted free cash flow for 2027 has increased to at least $150 million. In terms of the various components of the free cash flow, our expectations are mostly in line with what we said in February.

隨著我們對調整後 EBITDA 前景的改善，我們對 2027 年調整後自由現金流的預期已增加到至少 1.5 億美元。就自由現金流的各個組成部分而言，我們的預期與我們在二月所說的基本一致。

We still expect maintenance CapEx of around EUR135 million, lease principal repayments of approximately $100 million, cash interest to increase to just over EUR200 million and small exceptional cash outflows of less than EUR10 million.

我們仍預期維護資本支出約為 1.35 億歐元，租賃本金償還額約為 1 億美元，現金利息將增加至略高於 2 億歐元，小額例外現金流出將少於 1,000 萬歐元。

Our expectations have slightly changed for the following cash flow items, and we now expect slightly lower cash tax of approximately EUR45 million. Still it's small, but reduced outflow in working capital and slightly higher growth CapEx of around EUR70 million, given the acceleration of the timing for certain high-return projects, generating new and more flexible capacity in our European business.

我們對以下現金流量項目的預期略有變化，現在我們預計現金稅將略有下降，約 4500 萬歐元。雖然規模仍然很小，但考慮到某些高回報項目時間的加快，營運資本流出減少，成長資本支出略高至約 7,000 萬歐元，從而為我們的歐洲業務創造了新的、更靈活的產能。

Our current expectations for future annual growth CapEx are unchanged in the range of EUR50 million to EUR60 million. We have today announced our quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share, and there's no change to our capital allocation policy.

我們目前對未來年度成長資本支出的預期保持不變，介於 5,000 萬歐元至 6,000 萬歐元之間。我們今天宣布了每股 0.10 美元的季度普通股息，我們的資本配置政策沒有變化。

With that, I will hand it back to Ollie.

說完這些，我就把它交還給奧利。

Thanks, Stefan. And so before moving to take questions, I'll just recap on AMP's performance and key messages. So firstly, adjusted EBITDA growth in the first quarter of 16% was ahead of guidance, underpinned by global shipments growth of 6% and a strong performance in each of our regions. We anticipate minimal impact to our business arising from the current tariff measures announced so far as our suppliers, customers and end consumers are all typically regional in nature.

謝謝，史蒂芬。因此，在回答問題之前，我將先回顧 AMP 的效能和關鍵訊息。首先，第一季調整後的 EBITDA 成長率為 16%，高於預期，這得益於全球出貨量成長 6% 以及我們各個地區的強勁表現。我們預計，迄今為止宣布的現行關稅措施對我們的業務的影響微乎其微，因為我們的供應商、客戶和最終消費者通常都是區域性的。

The beverage can continues to outperform other substrates in our customers' packaging mix supporting our growth. So reflecting our strong start to the year and recent favorable currency movements and assuming no further adverse change to the current macro environment, we are upgrading our full year guidance.

在我們客戶的包裝組合中，飲料罐的表現持續優於其他基材，從而支持了我們的成長。因此，考慮到我們今年的強勁開局和近期有利的貨幣走勢，並假設當前宏觀環境不會發生進一步的不利變化，我們將上調全年業績預期。

We now expect shipments for AMP to grow between 3% to 4% which compares with our initial guidance range of between 2% and 3%. Full year adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of $695 million to $720 million with the upgrade split between improved underlying business performance and a more favorable currency outlook based on current FX rates.

我們現在預計 AMP 的出貨量將成長 3% 至 4%，而我們最初的指導範圍是 2% 至 3%。目前預計全年調整後 EBITDA 將在 6.95 億美元至 7.2 億美元之間，上調部分歸因於基礎業務表現的改善以及基於當前外匯匯率的更有利的貨幣前景。

In terms of guidance for the second quarter, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of between $195 million and $205 million ahead of the prior year of $178 million.

就第二季的預期而言，調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 1.95 億美元至 2.05 億美元之間，高於去年同期的 1.78 億美元。

Having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to take any questions you may have.

講完這些開場白後，我們現在將開始回答大家可能提出的任何問題。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員指示）

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)。

Good morning. I'm wondering if you could talk about April kind of month-to-date trends and specifically after the liberation Day announcements, which I guess was the second. Did you see any change either from channel partners, suppliers and consumers in terms of people pulling back or order behavior or just kind of any change in behavior? And then understanding you don't have much direct impact to tariffs. Do you think maybe inflation stressed consumer could impact demand for bev cans?

早安.我想知道您是否可以談談四月份的月度趨勢，特別是解放日公告之後的趨勢，我想這是第二次了。您是否看到通路合作夥伴、供應商和消費者在撤回或訂購行為方面或只是行為方面有任何變化？然後你就會明白，關稅不會受到太大的直接影響。您是否認為通膨的壓力可能會影響消費者對罐裝飲料的需求？

Sure. No. I mean, I think the answer to the first question is definitely not. We haven't seen any change in April. In fact, one of the reasons we're upgrading guidance is because of the continued momentum of our sales into April, particularly in North America where the growth is pretty broad-based.

當然。不。我的意思是，我認為第一個問題的答案絕對是否定的。四月我們沒有看到任何變化。事實上，我們上調預期的原因之一是我們的銷售在四月份繼續保持強勁勢頭，特別是在北美，那裡的成長相當廣泛。

We've seen a lot of inflation going to the North American beverage can market in the last few years. And in fact, it's been moderating. And at the moment, we're not seeing direct inflationary impacts from the tariffs. I mean I mentioned on -- in the prepared remarks that if you play through the increase in the Midwest premiums coming from the tariffs, you get to sort of around $0.01 increase in the retail cost of the can, which I think is a number that's been talked about pretty broadly.

過去幾年，我們看到北美飲料罐市場大幅通膨。事實上，這種趨勢一直在緩和。目前，我們還沒有看到關稅對通膨的直接影響。我的意思是，我在準備好的評論中提到過，如果考慮到關稅導致的中西部地區保費上漲，那麼罐頭零售成本將上漲約 0.01 美元，我認為這個數字已經被廣泛討論過。

But then with the overall economic backdrop, we're seeing LME falling. So if you were buying today, you're not far off roughly the aluminum costs you were before any of these announcements. Now as I also said in the remarks, now I think most people will be hedged for this year. So would it be unlikely as a significant effect for this year anyway.

但在整體經濟背景下，我們看到倫敦金屬交易所價格下跌。因此，如果您今天購買，那麼鋁價與這些公告發布之前的鋁價大致相差不遠。正如我在評論中所說的那樣，我認為大多數人今年都會採取對沖措施。因此，無論如何，它不太可能對今年產生重大影響。

So we're not, as I say, anticipating any major impacts in the current set of announcements. Obviously, things can change in this environment. But as we sit here today, we don't see any big impact on the business.

因此，正如我所說，我們預計當前的一系列公告不會產生任何重大影響。顯然，在這種環境下事情可能會改變。但就我們今天坐在這裡來看，我們沒有看到對業務有任何重大影響。

Got it. And then just zooming in on North American Energy, can you -- are you confident that, that's kind of turned the corner? Or given some of the challenges you saw last year, can you maybe give a little bit more color on energy and kind of where you think that end market is.

知道了。然後，再放大北美能源的情況，您是否有信心，這已經是一種轉捩點了？或者考慮到去年看到的一些挑戰，您能否對能源進行更詳細的介紹，以及您認為終端市場在哪裡。

Yes. I mean, I would be quite confident actually. I think that -- and the reason for that is that the growth is pretty broad-based across our customer base. We're seeing it with the more traditional energy players, we're seeing with the newer players. We've got a lot of growth with some of the more innovative players in the space. So it does seem to be quite a broad-based recovery. I think I was always confident that -- it was a strong category with strong players who would get back on the innovation train.

是的。我的意思是，我其實非常有信心。我認為——原因在於我們的客戶群的成長相當廣泛。我們在更傳統的能源參與者身上看到了這一點，我們也在新參與者身上看到了這一點。我們與該領域一些更具創新精神的參與者一起取得了巨大的發展。因此，這確實看起來是一次相當廣泛的復甦。我想我一直堅信——這是一個強大的類別，擁有強大的參與者，他們將重新踏上創新的列車。

They've been pushing -- clearly been pushing a bit more on price. And last year, it looks like a bit of a breather after some big growth in the previous few years. Obviously, we're still early in the year. So I mean I do have to sound no caution that we haven't been through the summer season yet. Some of what we're seeing in our numbers is inventory build.

他們一直在努力——顯然一直在提高價格。而在經歷了前幾年的大幅成長之後，去年，它似乎稍微得到了喘息。顯然，今年還處於初期階段。所以我的意思是，我確實不必擔心我們還沒有度過夏季。我們在數據中看到的一些現像是庫存增加。

So I think until we go through the summer, we won't know the full picture. But from where we're sitting today and with the trends that we're seeing in April and the way customers are talking about Q2, it does look like the category has turned the corner.

所以我認為，直到度過這個夏天，我們才會知道全部。但從我們今天所處的位置以及我們在四月份看到的趨勢以及客戶談論第二季度的方式來看，該類別確實似乎已經出現轉機。

Okay, that's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的，這非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。

Thanks, Anthony.

謝謝，安東尼。

Stephan Diaz, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的史蒂芬·迪亞茲。

Hello, everybody and congrats on a good quarter. Maybe, Oli, you continue to sound confident as far as there being limited impact on your volumes from tariffs. Maybe how do you think about the potential substrate switch risk just given the increased premium in the US? And then maybe the strength in 1Q numbers. do you allocate any of that to a pull forward in demand ahead of potential tariffs?

大家好，恭喜本季取得良好業績。奧利，也許你仍然對關稅對你們的銷售影響有限充滿信心。考慮到美國保費的上漲，您如何看待潛在的基材轉換風險？然後也許第一季的數據表現強勁。您是否將其中的一部分分配給潛在關稅之前的提前需求？

So taking that second one first, no, I don't think you see any pull forward from what we hearing from the customer base and what we're seeing. I mean most of our customers are pretty just in time in the way that they operate their businesses. Obviously, we're building inventory for them in some situations. But I don't get the feeling that consumers are stockpiling soft drinks, to be honest. And that certainly, we've had no feedback on that.

因此，首先考慮第二個問題，不，從我們從客戶群中聽到的消息和我們看到的情況來看，我認為你不會看到任何進展。我的意思是，我們的大多數客戶在經營業務的方式上都非常及時。顯然，在某些情況下我們正在為他們建立庫存。但說實話，我並沒有感覺到消費者在囤積軟性飲料。當然，我們還沒有收到有關此問題的回饋。

So what we could be seeing is people building inventory for the anticipation of a strong summer season. And sometimes that doesn't play through exactly how our customers expect. And sometimes we do, therefore, see a bit less growth at the back end of Q2 or Q3 if the summer doesn't fully play out. But I don't think we're seeing any pull forward that we're aware of from the tariff situation.

因此，我們可以看到人們正在囤積庫存，以迎接夏季的旺季。但有時這並不完全符合客戶的期望。因此，如果夏季經濟沒有完全結束，我們有時確實會看到第二季或第三季後期的成長有所放緩。但我認為，就關稅情況而言，我們並沒有看到任何進展。

And then yes, the substrate switch, I think, honestly, is a bit overplayed. As I said, I think there's some increase in premiums, but mostly major players will be hedged. We are certainly hedged for this year. And then with the LME coming down, the overall cost of the accounting is actually pretty unchanged from a metal perspective.

是的，我認為基板切換有點誇大其詞了。正如我所說，我認為保費會增加，但大多數主要參與者都會採取對沖措施。我們今年肯定已經做好了對沖準備。隨著倫敦金屬交易所價格下跌，從金屬角度來看，會計總成本實際上基本上沒有變動。

So I don't see this driving any particular substrate shift. And to be honest, what we see in our numbers in all our markets is that actually we're the ones benefiting still from substrate shift. I talked about the innovation trend. That's very significant in North America. I think sustainability is still a tailwind the efficiency and cost position if the can still a tailwind. So at the moment, we remain positive that we're the right side of substrate shifts in beverage packaging.

因此，我認為這不會引起任何特定的基質轉變。老實說，從我們所有市場的數據來看，我們實際上仍然是從基材轉移中受益的人。我講了創新趨勢。這對北美來說意義重大。我認為永續性仍然是一個順風，如果效率和成本狀況仍然能夠成為順風的話。因此目前，我們仍然堅信我們在飲料包裝基材轉變方面處於正確的地位。

That's very helpful. Thanks. And then maybe for my second question. So you had the customer mix drag on your volume numbers for the past couple of quarters in Brazil. For 1Q came in better than we were modeling. Maybe what are you seeing down there in the region? And is the customer mix issue sort of behind us going forward? Thanks.

這非常有幫助。謝謝。接下來也許是我的第二個問題。因此，在過去幾個季度，客戶組合拖累了您在巴西的銷售。第一季的表現比我們預測的還要好。也許您在該地區看到了什麼？那麼，客戶組合問題是否已解決？謝謝。

Yes. I think it's still volatile. So certainly, January, February were up and down within March, as I mentioned, was really strong for the industry and particularly for us as well. I think Carnival went well and so customers are rebuilding after that, which is a good sign. And then yes, we were sitting on the right side of the customer mix.

是的。我認為它仍然不穩定。因此，正如我所提到的，一月、二月的業績有起有落，而三月的業績對行業來說確實非常強勁，尤其是對我們而言。我認為嘉年華進行得很順利，因此顧客們在之後會重新回來，這是一個好兆頭。是的，我們處於客戶群的正確一方。

I think we're maintaining some caution, as I mentioned in the remarks, I think we've had volatility. The markets had volatility in the last six, nine months. So although we've had a positive start, we're not really changing our guidance at this point for Brazil, reflecting a bit of caution to make sure that those situations are fully behind us. But look, long term, I think it remains a very attractive market for beverage can, and we still anticipate good growth there. I think we're just being cautious on 2025 still at this point.

我認為我們保持一定的謹慎，正如我在評論中提到的，我認為我們存在波動。過去六到九個月裡，市場波動很大。因此，儘管我們已經有一個積極的開端，但目前我們並沒有真正改變對巴西的指導，這體現出一點謹慎，以確保這些情況已經完全過去。但從長遠來看，我認為它仍然是一個非常有吸引力的飲料罐市場，我們仍然預期那裡會有良好的成長。我認為我們現在對 2025 年仍持謹慎態度。

Great. Thanks. Maybe if I could just sort of slip in one more here. Does Brazil use the Midwest premium for pricing? Or is it more of a local premium. Thanks and I will turn it over.

偉大的。謝謝。也許我可以在這裡再多說一點。巴西是否採用中西部溢價定價？或者它更像是一種本地溢價。謝謝，我會把它轉過來。

So there's a mix. And then there's also whether it's duty paid or duty unpaid. So there's some impact of the Midwest premium in Brazil, though, as I say, there's a mix situation going on there. But obviously, one very beneficial impact for Brazil at the minute is the devaluation of the dollar, which reduces overall metal costs for our customers in Brazil. So that's been very good news for the last few weeks.

因此存在混合情況。此外，還有是否已完稅或未完稅的問題。因此，中西部地區的溢價對巴西產生了一定的影響，但正如我所說，那裡的情況是複雜的。但顯然，目前對巴西的一個非常有利的影響是美元貶值，這降低了我們巴西客戶的整體金屬成本。所以這對過去幾週來說是個非常好的消息。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Thanks very much, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details. Hey, Ollie, so it's great that you're raising guidance and the outlook is better for the year. As you sit back and think about where you were, I don't know, two, three months ago. Is it that your customers are seeing a better development in their volume and that's then flowing to you?

非常感謝大家。早安.謝謝你的詳細資料。嘿，奧利，你提高指導價並且今年的前景更好，這很好。當你坐下來思考你在哪裡時，我不知道，兩三個月前。是您的客戶看到了銷售的更好發展，而這些銷售正在流向您呢？

Is it that they were relatively constructive on the year, but given the volatility that we've seen in the markets the last two, three years, you wanted to keep a little bit in reserve until you saw, so to speak, the whites of their eyes. As you think about it, what was the one or two things that drive the better-than-expected outlook for the year as you think about it?

是因為他們對今年的預期相對積極，但考慮到過去兩三年市場波動性，你還是想保留一點，直到你看到他們眼白為止。想想看，是什麼一兩件事推動了今年的前景好於預期？

Yes, hi, George, look, I think particularly North America, the strength of some of the customers in some key categories for us, so energy, sparkling water, some of the cocktails and some of the health and owner treats that got health drinks some very innovative younger customers and then also somewhat more established.

是的，你好，喬治，你看，我認為特別是北美，一些關鍵類別的客戶對我們來說具有優勢，所以能量飲料、蘇打水、一些雞尾酒以及一些健康和業主款待，這些健康飲料吸引了一些非常有創新精神的年輕客戶，同時也吸引了一些更成熟的客戶。

But I think it's that portfolio, it does have growth and upside in it, but you can't always predict it. because it is a mix of customers with some really innovative new players in there. So I think that that's the key thing that's going on this year, which is some of those players and some of those categories have performed ahead of -- our expectations. And I think, to be honest, there as well in terms of the sort of guidance we had at the beginning of the year.

但我認為，這個投資組合確實有成長和上漲空間，但你無法總是預測它。因為其中既有客戶，也有真正富有創新精神的新參與者。所以我認為這是今年發生的關鍵事情，其中​​一些球員和一些類別的表現超出了我們的預期。而且我認為，說實話，這也與我們年初給的指導一致。

I'd say, you never quite know in Q1 what you're looking at, but I think the continued momentum into April and the sort of messages we're getting on the outlook for Q2 looks pretty positive. So I think that's the core piece to this and to the upgrade.

我想說，你永遠無法確切知道第一季會發生什麼，但我認為 4 月的持續勢頭以及我們收到的有關第二季度前景的信息看起來相當積極。所以我認為這是此次升級的核心部分。

Obviously, FX is also a piece to the upgrade. And then I think, we're also feeling good about the way the year has started in Brazil and Europe. We haven't upgraded anything there, but certainly it's been a very solid start relative to our expectations. And so that also gave us the confidence, I think, to say there's enough here despite the very volatile macro environment, to see an upgrade to, Q2 in the full year. But I think at the heart of it is the very strong North American performance, which is a, I think a a testament to the portfolio we've built there both of customers and the the categories we're operating in.

顯然，FX 也是升級的一部分。然後我認為，我們對巴西和歐洲今年的開局也感到滿意。我們還沒有升級任何東西，但相對於我們的預期，這無疑是一個非常穩固的開始。因此，我認為，這也給了我們信心，儘管宏觀環境非常不穩定，但我們有足夠的信心看到全年第二季的業績升級。但我認為，其核心是北美市場的強勁表現，我認為這證明了我們在那裡建立的客戶組合和我們經營的類別。

Oh, that's great and I really appreciate the detail there. If I can just dig in on one thing on the products like energy, sparkling water, the gut health drinks, if you will, is it from what you're hearing from your customers or what you're saying. Is it a proliferation of new labels or is it those existing products that were in those categories are actually gaining share of stomach with the consumer in terms of what's moving the needle again to the extent that you have a view on that.

哦，太棒了，我真的很欣賞那裡的細節。如果我可以深入研究能量飲料、蘇打水、腸道健康飲料等產品的一件事，那麼，這是從您從客戶那裡聽到的還是您所說的？是新標籤的激增，還是這些類別中的現有產品實際上正在獲得消費者的青睞，這才是推動趨勢的因素，您對此有何看法？

Second question and third question I'll turn over. I know what in the fourth quarter guide you were expecting, I think some margin compression in Europe because of PPI effects and some cost increases. How are those playing out again in Europe?

第二個問題和第三個問題我稍後再談。我知道您對第四季度指南的預期，我認為由於 PPI 效應和成本增加，歐洲的利潤率會有所壓縮。歐洲的情況又如何呢？

And then, well, it's not a huge factor, you did up the growth CapEx number for this year. That's good. Where are you finding that you need to do that? Thanks, and I'll turn it over.

然後，嗯，這不是一個很大的因素，你確實提高了今年的成長資本支出數字。那挺好的。您在哪裡發現您需要這樣做？謝謝，我會把它翻過來。

Yes. Thanks, George. I think on the question of what's really driving the growth, we're seeing some existing products that have been in the market really driving strongly. So it's not just completely new labels and new products, but we have got some really young companies in there as well that are spiking. So I think we've got a mix of both, and our portfolio is exposed to both through directly, but also through distributor relationships that work well for us. So I think it's a bit of both.

是的。謝謝，喬治。我認為，關於真正推動成長的因素的問題，我們看到市場上一些現有的產品確實發揮了強勁的推動作用。因此，這不僅僅是全新的標籤和新產品，而且我們還擁有一些正在蓬勃發展的年輕公司。所以我認為我們兩者兼而有之，我們的投資組合不僅透過直接方式接觸到這兩種方式，而且還透過對我們有利的經銷商關係接觸到這兩種方式。所以我認為兩者都有。

But I think, again, a testament to the way our customers are putting more and more innovation in the can and are really trying to drive their innovation through beverage cans. On the Europe question, yes, look, there still is some headwinds in our Europe numbers this year from the increased minium conversion costs and the fact that PPI went negative coming into this year. But it's true that in Q1 had a slightly better performance and expectations through really, really good input cost management on the energy side in the metal side.

但我認為這再次證明了我們的客戶在罐頭中投入了越來越多的創新，並真正嘗試透過飲料罐來推動他們的創新。關於歐洲問題，是的，看，今年我們的歐洲數據仍然存在一些阻力，包括最低轉換成本的增加以及今年 PPI 變為負值的事實。但確實，透過在金屬領域的能源方面進行非常非常好的投入成本管理，第一季的業績和預期略有改善。

So good work by the team to control those costs, manage mix and really drive everything that we could out of those categories to improve our results. So we did have some upside there, but that's not to say that in our overall numbers, there is still some headwind on the PPI and alley conversion cost.

因此，團隊在控製成本、管理組合以及充分利用這些類別的一切資源以改善績效方面做得很好。因此，我們確實有一些優勢，但這並不是說，在我們的整體數據中，PPI 和小巷改造成本仍然存在一些阻力。

And then yes, I think the growth CapEx is not a big increase, but I think it's reflecting the fact that if you look at our European business now, it's pretty tapped out. We're probably running in the high 90s utilization. We're ramping up capacity this year from the projects that were not complete and we're also debottlenecking and improving performance in other plants.

是的，我認為資本支出的成長幅度並不大，但我認為這反映了這樣一個事實：如果你現在看看我們的歐洲業務，你會發現它已經相當成熟了。我們的利用率可能已經達到 90% 左右。我們今年正在提高尚未完成的項目的產能，同時也在消除其他工廠的瓶頸並提高其性能。

But we're seeing, as we look out a year or two that's not going to be enough for the growth in Europe and therefore, we are starting to target some high-return projects that increase both the capacity, but also the flexibility of our capacity.

但我們看到，展望未來一兩年，這還不足以滿足歐洲的成長需求，因此，我們開始瞄準一些高回報項目，既能提高產能，又能提高產能的靈活性。

So I think it's a good sign. We're seeing other of our peers announcing additional capacity for Europe. I mean Europe is nearly $100 billion can market now. So if it grows 3%, you need $3 billion a year to keep it satisfied. So it's not surprising. I think that we and our peers are putting in a little bit of incremental capacity into the market to make sure we can serve that growth.

所以我認為這是一個好兆頭。我們看到其他同行宣布增加歐洲的產能。我的意思是歐洲現在有近1000億美元的市場。因此，如果成長 3%，則每年需要 30 億美元才能滿足需求。所以這並不奇怪。我認為我們和我們的同業正在向市場投入一些增量產能，以確保我們能夠滿足這一成長需求。

Thank you, Oli.

謝謝你，奧利。

Thanks. Cheers, George.

謝謝。乾杯，喬治。

Mike Roxland, Turist Securities.

Turist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

Thank you, Oli, the fun and Steve for taking my questions and congrats on a good quarter. Just wanted to follow up quickly on North America and what George is drilling down on. 60% of your mix is CSD and sparkling water. Those categories did well last quarter. They seem to do well again this quarter. So the remaining 40% roughly is what energy mixed cocktails holdings and the like.

謝謝 Oli、Fun 和 Steve 回答我的問題，並祝賀本季度取得了良好的成績。只是想快速跟進北美的情況以及喬治正在深入研究的內容。混合物中的 60% 是碳酸飲料和蘇打水。這些類別在上個季度表現良好。本季他們似乎再次表現良好。所以剩下的 40% 大致是能源混合雞尾酒持有量之類的。

It sounds like they just started to grow a lot more strongly that had been the case. And correct me if I'm wrong there, which is why your North American volumes were up anything around share gains, maybe customer contractual stimulation? I'm just trying to get a sense of almost how you went from being down, let's say, a few percent last quarter, 10% of your mix was still growing to being up the way you were in 1Q?

聽起來它們剛開始變得更加強壯。如果我錯了，請糾正我，這就是為什麼你們的北美銷量會隨著份額增長而增長，也許是由於客戶合約刺激？我只是想了解一下你們是如何從上個季度的下降（​​比如說下降幾個百分點，而你們的 10% 的銷售額仍在增長）到第一季的上升的？

Yeah, hi, Mike. Yes. Good question. So I think you're right, Q4 sleek and specialty in those categories was not particularly strong for us. I think it was both a customer mix issue. So we -- in that quarter, we were a bit the wrong side of some of the customers and which ones are growing.

是的，你好，麥克。是的。好問題。所以我認為你是對的，Q4 在這些類別中的時尚和專業對我們來說並不是特別強。我認為這是一個客戶組合問題。因此，在那個季度，我們對某些客戶有點不滿意，而哪些客戶正在成長。

I think there must have been also common share slippage in Q4 relative to some of our peers just in certain customer situations, which we think is being corrected this year. But we think it's mostly then in the market. Some of these are sole supply positions where they're just performing extremely well. So we think that's a big part of it, which is that they're just having a much better year. I think the category is, as I say, took a bit of a free last year, got a bit overstocked in retail.

我認為，在某些客戶情況下，第四季度相對於我們的一些同行來說，市場份額肯定也出現了普遍下滑，我們認為這種情況今年正在得到糾正。但我們認為這主要存在於市場中。其中一些是唯一的供應崗位，他們的表現非常出色。所以我們認為這是其中很重要的一個因素，那就是他們今年的業績好得多。我認為，正如我所說，該類別去年有點空閒，零售方面有點庫存過剩。

Some of the innovation is not working quite so well. So I think our customers went back to the drawing board on innovation and worked on their portfolios and are clearly driving a bit of price promo activity up in the space.

有些創新效果沒那麼好。因此，我認為我們的客戶重新開始創新並致力於他們的投資組合，並且顯然推動了該領域的一些價格促銷活動。

So I think it's a host of factors, but broadly, the (inaudible) category you can see is back in broad -- you can see that in the scanner data. And then, yes, look, I think we're the right side of it in our customer mix this quarter relative to last quarter and then maybe there's a little bit of share gain in there. Nothing dramatic.

所以我認為這有很多因素，但從廣義上講，您可以看到的（聽不清楚）類別又回到了廣義上——您可以在掃描器資料中看到這一點。是的，我認為相對於上一季度，本季度我們的客戶組合處於正確的一邊，而且可能還有一點份額增長。沒什麼戲劇性的。

Got it. Thank you, Oli. And then just one quick follow-up. And I know this question has been asked on prior calls, but I just wanted to get a sense for you as to the competitive landscape, particularly in North America. You have contracts, the industry more broadly has contracts that are coming up for renewal, '26 and '27.

知道了。謝謝你，奧利。然後只需快速跟進一次。我知道這個問題在之前的電話會議中已經提出過，但我只是想讓您了解競爭格局，特別是在北美。你有合同，更廣泛地說，這個行業有即將續簽的合同，'26 和 '27。

You have competitors who are trying to fill up their new capacity at the same time, CPGs are being squeezed, given persistent volume weakness. You had one report this morning where volumes were down in North America 3%, 4%.

同時，競爭對手也努力填補新的產能，由於銷售持續疲軟，快速消費品公司正受到擠壓。今天早上有一份報告稱北美的銷量下降了 3% 至 4%。

I would assume that they would likely to get some of the price back that they gave up there when contracts were less negotiated five years, so just trying to get a sense of the competitive landscape, what do you think is going to happen with contract renewals and pricing given a more dynamic, more competitive environment?

我認為他們可能會收回在五年合約談判較少時放棄的部分價格，因此只是想了解一下競爭格局，您認為在更具活力、更具競爭力的環境下，合約續約和定價會發生什麼變化？

Yes. Look, I think the first thing to say is that if you look at 12-ounce pricing over the cycle, it's not that it's dramatically moved in COVID times. I mean it did strengthen and we talked about that. But I think the big area where there was better pricing was clearly in specialty with the very strong growth in sleep. So I don't think that there's something particular for our customers to go after in the 12-ounce space, frankly, in terms of our margin profile.

是的。聽著，我認為首先要說的是，如果你看週期內的 12 盎司定價，你會發現它在 COVID 時期並沒有劇烈波動。我的意思是它確實加強了，我們也討論過這一點。但我認為，定價較好的主要領域顯然是專業領域，因為睡眠領域的成長非常強勁。因此，坦白說，就我們的利潤狀況而言，我認為我們的客戶在 12 盎司領域沒有什麼特別追求的。

And then I look at, therefore, the competitive environment and the way these are playing out. And I don't, at this time, see any material risk to the business volumes or margins. And I think discussions are progressing well.

然後我觀察競爭環境以及競爭的進展方式。目前，我還沒有發現業務量或利潤率面臨任何重大風險。我認為討論進展順利。

Obviously, we're not going to give running commentary on that. Most of it will be resolved in the next 6 to 12 months. And as I say, at the moment, as we look into our planning cycle, we're not seeing anything particularly material from that.

顯然，我們不會對此進行連續評論。大部分問題將在未來6至12個月內解決。正如我所說，目前，當我們審視我們的規劃週期時，我們並沒有看到任何特別實質的成果。

And while the competitive environment there is capacity in North America, there is also growth in certain pockets. And also, we're seeing some players coming out of the industry. So we're not seeing that the market is particularly irrational or and I think particular happens. So yes, we're confident that with the strength of our relationships, the filling locations we have and with the market will come through those re-contracting events.

儘管競爭環境在北美具有一定容量，但某些領域也呈現成長態勢。此外，我們也看到一些參與者退出該行業。因此，我們並沒有看到市場特別不理性，或者我認為特別的情況發生。所以是的，我們相信，憑藉我們強大的關係，我們現有的填充地點和市場將透過這些重新簽約活動實現。

Got it. Thanks very much and good luck for the rest of the year.

知道了。非常感謝，祝今年餘下時間一切順利。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特。

It's (inaudible) sitting in for Josh. Just kind of following up on that last point, I wanted to talk about utilization rates. You said Europe was very strong, tight but utilization rates in North America and Brazil. And also we read recently about a new plant coming up in Brazil from the number four global player. So how does that factor into that?

它（聽不清楚）代替喬希。為了繼續討論最後一點，我想談談利用率。您說歐洲非常強勁，但北美和巴西的使用率很緊張。最近我們也了解到，這家全球第四大企業將在巴西開設一家新工廠。那麼這是如何影響這現象的呢？

Yes, sure. Look, I think the North America, we believe, is operating in the 90s utilization of the market, which I think is a reasonable place for it to be. With the growth we've had quarter and what we're seeing in Q2. We're also now into the 90s without curtailment. And then obviously, we still have some curtailment activity that will take us into the mid- to high 90s this year.

是的，當然。看起來，我認為北美的市場利用率正在達到 90 年代，我認為這是合理的。隨著本季的成長以及第二季的成長，我們也看到了這一點。現在我們已經進入 90 年代，並且沒有出現任何減產。顯然，我們仍然會進行一些削減活動，這將使我們今年的產量達到 90 年代中後期的水平。

And actually, our network is extremely tight at the moment with all the pressure that's coming in from the increased specialty sales. So I think North America is sort of growing into a balanced position. And as I say, I think is operating rationally with the capacity position that is in place. In Brazil, I mean, again, I think the market is in either the late '80s or early '90s. Brazil is a more complex market logistically with big distances. So tends to be, feel a bit tighter lower utilization rates.

事實上，由於專業銷售增加帶來的巨大壓力，我們的網路目前非常緊張。所以我認為北美正在逐漸走向平衡。正如我所說，我認為在現有的產能條件下，營運是合理的。在巴西，我的意思是，我認為市場處於 80 年代末或 90 年代初。巴西市場在物流方面更為複雜，而且距離遙遠。因此往往覺得利用率較低，有點緊張。

And we are -- we started the year in the -- with a mid-80s number. That's after some hard curtailment. And at the minute, we're obviously not changing that prediction for the year, because we haven't changed our guidance, but equally, we're obviously operating a bit ahead of that with the performance we had in in Q1, Q2.

而我們 — — 我們今年年初的數字是 80 年代中期。這是經過一番嚴格削減之後的結果。目前，我們顯然不會改變今年的預測，因為我們沒有改變我們的指導，但同樣，根據我們在第一季和第二季的表現，我們顯然比今年的預測要高一些。

And then, yes, look, I think that announcement was long planned. It was delayed by two or three years with the delay to the customers' brewery. but they are now going ahead with that. And earlier, I think Brazil remains a very attractive market for beverage cans. There's a long-term secular shift out of two-way glass packaging into one-way packaging, which is principally beverage cans.

是的，看，我認為這個聲明是早就計劃好的。由於客戶啤酒廠的延遲，它被延遲了兩三年。但他們現在正在繼續推進這項工作。在此之前，我認為巴西仍然是一個非常有吸引力的飲料罐市場。長期以來，雙向玻璃包裝一直被單向包裝取代，單向包裝主要是飲料罐。

And so you've got that sort of mid-single-digit growth trajectory over the medium term, and that therefore, does need additional capacity to come in, particularly regionally, you get shortages. So no particular concern with that investment, it was long anticipated, and I think it just reflects the the good growth that, that customer has in the market.

因此，從中期來看，你會得到這種中等個位數的成長軌跡，因此，確實需要額外的產能，特別是在地區層面，你會出現短缺。因此，對於這項投資沒有特別的擔憂，這是人們長期期待的，我認為這只是反映了該客戶在市場上的良好成長。

Okay. Great. Thank you for all the detail. And then I wanted to go back to the EBITDA guidance raise. By my math, I think you raised it by about $23 million at the midpoint for the full year, which is a bit less than the overage in Q1 and Q2 versus consensus and also versus your guidance? Is that just conservatism built in for the back half? Or is there anything that we should be thinking of in the back half? Any things to watch out for in the back half?

好的。偉大的。感謝您提供的所有詳細資訊。然後我想回到 EBITDA 指導上調的問題。根據我的計算，我認為您在全年中期將其提高了約 2300 萬美元，這比第一季和第二季的超額部分（與普遍預期以及您的指導相比）要少一些？這只是後半部固有的保守主義嗎？或是後半部還有什麼值得我們思考的嗎？後半部有什麼需要注意的嗎？

Yes, maybe I'll take that and I will pass it to Stefan. There's anything in particular in the back half. Yes, cautious. We've had a good start to the year, but as I say, until you go through the summer season in Europe and North America, you don't really know where you are. We'd be pretty optimistic based on the momentum going into Q2. But again, I think we're very early in the year, the macro environment does remain volatile.

是的，也許我會接受它並將其傳遞給史蒂芬。後半部有什麼特別之處。是的，小心謹慎。今年我們有一個好的開端，但正如我所說，直到你度過歐洲和北美的夏季，你才真正知道你在哪裡。根據第二季的勢頭，我們非常樂觀。但我再次認為，今年才剛開始，宏觀環境仍然不穩定。

We said it clearly in our remarks, I think that in the current macro environment, we're confident in raising the guidance, but we don't know what's happening in the world today. So it's another reason to be a little bit cautious. But I don't think there's anything specific. I'll just add this, Stefan.

我們在演講中明確表示，我認為在當前的宏觀環境下，我們有信心提高指引，但我們不知道今天世界正在發生什麼。所以這是需要謹慎一點的另一個原因。但我認為沒有什麼具體的東西。我只想補充一點，史蒂芬。

Yes, yes. I confirm all that. I think there's nothing in particular on no specific factor that is driving what would be pointed out. I mean we have obviously relative to visibility to Q2. So that is a fraction of what we're seeing in the business. But yes, I think -- yes, you might say that it's maybe a little bit of conservatism, but I think the world we are currently living and not be appropriate from our perspective.

是的，是的。我確認這一切。我認為沒有什麼特別的因素可以推動所指出的問題。我的意思是，我們顯然具有相對於 Q2 的可見性。這只是我們在業務中看到的一小部分。但是的，我認為——是的，你可能會說這可能有點保守，但我認為從我們的角度來看，我們目前所處的世界並不合適。

Great. Thank you for that and congratulations on a good quarter.

偉大的。謝謝您，並恭喜本季業績良好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gabrial Hajde, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的加布里埃爾·哈吉德 (Gabrial Hajde)。

Holly, Stefan, good morning. Most of my questions have been answered to be honest. Just one on sort of the conservatism baked in. I mean, again, you didn't put any specificity on volumes. I don't think you did in April. But just 6% in the first quarter, if we assume second quarter kind of up mid-singles, it sort of implies a decel in the back half of the year. Is that something that you're seeing? Or is it, again, just conservatism in the outlook given -- we've had some full starts here in the past two years. And then obviously, everything that's going on in the macro environment.

霍莉、史蒂芬，早安。說實話，我的大部分問題都得到了答案。這只是其中一種根深蒂固的保守主義。我的意思是，你沒有對音量做任何具體說明。我認為你四月沒有這麼做。但第一季僅成長 6%，如果我們假設第二季成長中位數，則意味著下半年成長會放緩。這是你所看到的嗎？或者，這只是對前景的保守看法——過去兩年，我們已經有了一些完整的開端。顯然，宏觀環境中發生的一切。

Yes, I think it's exactly that, Gabe, which is, we think about Brazil last year, we were sitting mid-September market up double digits, looking at some pretty good numbers. We captured all that growth and then something we had an unexpected event that pulls us right back to Q3, Q4. So again, we're not upping the Brazil guidance yet, even though when you play it through mathematically, you'd expect to see a bit of upside.

是的，加布，我認為確實如此，我們想想去年的巴西，九月中旬我們的市場上漲了兩位數，看到了一些相當不錯的數據。我們抓住了所有的成長機會，然後發生了一些意外事件，將我們拉回第三季、第四季。因此，我們再次強調，我們還沒有提高巴西的指導價格，儘管從數學角度來看，你預計會看到一些上漲空間。

So we're being cautious there. I think in Europe, again, we have to recognize that last year, our customers did not build inventory to the extent needed. The industry didn't do that. They were all cautious after a pretty rough end 2023, and so as a result, this year, our customers are building inventory and we are, too.

所以我們對此持謹慎態度。我認為在歐洲，我們必須再次認識到，去年我們的客戶沒有建立達到所需程度的庫存。但業界卻沒有這麼做。在經歷了 2023 年相當艱難的時期後，他們都變得謹慎起來，因此，今年我們的客戶正在建立庫存，我們也在這樣做。

And so we have to be cautious, as I say, until we go through the summer season, to be absolutely sure that we're going to get the rate your sell-through that they're predicting. And same with North America, again, trends are very strong. But until you've really been through the summer, you don't absolutely know what you've got.

因此，正如我所說，我們必須謹慎，直到我們度過夏季，才能絕對確保我們能夠達到他們預測的銷售率。北美也一樣，趨勢非常強勁。但直到你真正度過這個夏天，你才真正知道你得到了什麼。

So I think it is appropriate, as Stefan just said and you mentioned, we are in a very volatile macro environment. I think that we're demonstrating how strong the business is in the face of that macro environment because structurally, it's well positioned for that environment. And naturally somewhat defensive in nature, but equally big things can happen that can knock us off course. So yes, I think it's just that we're early in the year, and we want to be somewhat cautious about the back half.

所以我認為這是合適的，正如史蒂芬剛才所說和你提到的，我們正處於一個非常不穩定的宏觀環境中。我認為，我們正在展示業務在宏觀環境下的強勁表現，因為從結構上來說，它已經為這種環境做好了準備。這自然是具有一定防禦性質的，但同樣可能發生的大事會讓我們偏離軌道。所以是的，我認為現在還處於年初階段，我們希望對下半年保持謹慎。

Got it. Okay. And then on the CapEx side, just a point of clarification. I thought I heard throwing up to 70% for expansion/return capital this year. And did Stefan say up from [50 to 60]? Or was that [50 to 60] sort of like a baseline that we would expect on a go-forward basis and really again (multiple speakers), you feel good about your brick and mortar infrastructure as it sits right now in Brazil and North America, but if the growth persists in Europe, can you talk about maybe the need for a new factory or anything like that?

知道了。好的。然後在資本支出方面，只需要澄清一點。我好像聽說今年要投入高達 70% 的擴張/回報資本。史蒂芬有沒有說過[50到60]？或者說 [50 到 60] 是我們預期的一個基線，而且真的（多位發言者），您對目前在巴西和北美的實體基礎設施感到滿意，但如果歐洲的增長持續下去，您能否談談可能需要新建一家工廠或類似的東西？

Yes, sure. So I think, yes, Stefan's comment was back to run rate. So you were saying that the sort of run rate we expect is the $50 million, $60 million at the moment, but we had increased to $70 million this year. So yes, that was the second one that you mentioned in terms of those two options. So yes, look, I think Europe, the way we're seeing it, as I say, is we're pretty tapped out.

是的，當然。所以我認為，是的，史蒂芬的評論又回到了運行率。所以您說我們預期的運行率目前是 5000 萬美元、6000 萬美元，但今年已增至 7000 萬美元。是的，這是您在兩個選項中提到的第二個。是的，我認為歐洲，正如我所說，我們已經筋疲力盡了。

We're growing capacity through existing projects that are ramping up with debottlenecking and improving the performance of other factories. So that will get us about $1 billion of capacity this year. And then we see we need another $1 billion or so going through the next year or two. So then we're starting to target mostly, in fact, entirely within our existing footprint projects to increased capacity and increased flexibility with particular projects linked to particular customer contracts and growth projects.

我們正在透過現有項目來擴大產能，這些項目正在逐步消除瓶頸並提高其他工廠的性能。這樣我們今年的產能將達到約 10 億美元。然後我們發現，在接下來的一兩年裡我們還需要大約 10 億美元。因此，我們開始主要、實際上完全瞄準我們現有的足跡項目，以提高產能和提高靈活性，並將特定項目與特定客戶合約和成長項目聯繫起來。

So we'll talk more about those details as they come up over the six to nine months. But I think our prediction is that Europe is the place that needs it, where as you say, I think, although we're feeling very tight in North America right now, that's because, some of this growth is a bit unexpected.

因此，我們將在未來六到九個月內進一步討論這些細節。但我認為我們的預測是歐洲是需要它的地方，正如你所說，我認為，雖然我們現在在北美感覺非常緊張，那是因為，其中一些增長有點出乎意料。

And we have got the capacity in North America to get some good growth in the next year or two and similarly with Brazil. So I think Europe is a place where we definitely need a little bit more. At this stage, with what we see in front of it, it's not a new factory. It can be done within the existing footprint.

我們有能力在未來一兩年內在北美實現良好的成長，巴西的情況也類似。所以我認為歐洲是我們絕對需要更多幫助的地方。目前，就我們所看到的情況來看，這並不是一個新工廠。它可以在現有的空間內完成。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thanks, Gab.

謝謝，加布。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Great, thanks for taking my question, guys. I guess, yes, I just wanted to continue along the discussion around volumes, it sounds like volumes have been a little bit more robust than what you thought, especially in North America.

太好了，謝謝大家回答我的問題。我想，是的，我只是想繼續討論交易量，聽起來交易量比你想像的要強勁一些，尤其是在北美。

Understanding that has been led mostly by the non-alcohol beverages side. Do you feel comfortable at all kind of at the upper end of the longer-term outlook? Maybe are we talking about 2% to 3% kind of consistent growth going forward. And maybe I can just get your thoughts on the beer category as well.

這一理解主要由非酒精飲料方面主導。您是否對長期前景的上限感到滿意？也許我們談論的是未來 2% 到 3% 的持續成長。也許我也可以了解您對啤酒類別的看法。

We've obviously seen continued weakness there. So do you think that is going to persist? Or do you think that could also turn around as you move through the year and into next year? Thanks.

我們顯然看到那裡持續的疲軟。那麼您認為這種情況會持續下去嗎？或者您認為隨著今年和明年的到來，這種情況也可能會好轉嗎？謝謝。

Sure. Yes. I mean as you say, we're not big players in the mass beer segment, and we do still see the weakness in the scanner data, which obviously, a big part of that has been the decline in domestic produced and filled beer relative to imported there, because, I mean, if you go back 10 years, beer grew in cans, and it was actually the soft drink side of the house that was struggling with the growth of PET.

當然。是的。我的意思是，正如你所說，我們並不是大眾啤酒領域的大玩家，我們仍然看到掃描儀數據的弱點，顯然，其中很大一部分原因是國內生產和灌裝啤酒相對於進口啤酒的下降，因為，我的意思是，如果你回顧 10 年前，罐裝啤酒的增長，實際上是軟飲料方面在與 PET 瓶裝啤酒的增長作鬥爭。

So, yes, look, I think it's domestic started to take share back from imported beer, which potentially the tariff situation to drive some of that, then you could see go back into growth. I think it is all about which brands are growing because there's no reason why cans wouldn't be taking share in that category. In fact, they are taking share in that category from glass.

所以，是的，我認為國內啤酒開始從進口啤酒中奪回市場份額，這可能是關稅情況推動的部分原因，然後你會看到市場重新恢復成長。我認為這完全取決於哪些品牌正在成長，因為沒有理由說罐裝飲料不會在該類別中佔據份額。事實上，他們正在從玻璃產業奪取這一領域的份額。

But as I say, you're just seeing it going outside the US instead of production. So yes, no reason why that came back and no reason why the US can market can't grow 2%, 3%. As I said, I think there's been a lot of commentary around the category recently that there's been a little bit negative about possible trends and snap and weight loss drugs.

但正如我所說，你只是看到它走向美國以外，而不是生產。所以是的，沒有理由再次出現這種情況，也沒有理由美國市場不能成長 2% 或 3%。正如我所說，我認為最近圍繞這一類別有很多評論，對可能的趨勢以及減肥藥和速效減肥藥有一些負面評價。

But I think that commentary is, there's been a bit overweight things that aren't yet happening and a bit under way, things that are happening, which is the innovations going into the can, the can is still very strong from a sustainability point of view and the can is still super efficient from a filling and economics point of view. So we see those long-term trends driving the category. And there's no reason that all right in North America can't grow at that sort of rate, which it grew pre-COVID at that kind of rate. So yes, I remain optimistic on North American sure

但我認為評論是，有些事情還沒有發生，有些事情正在進行中，這些事情正在發生，即罐頭的創新，從可持續性的角度來看，罐頭仍然非常強大，從填充和經濟的角度來看，罐頭仍然非常有效率。因此，我們看到這些長期趨勢正在推動這一類別的發展。沒有理由認為北美不能以這種速度成長，就像新冠疫情之前北美的經濟就是以這種速度成長的一樣。所以是的，我對北美市場仍然持樂觀態度

And then, thanks for that. Just on the balance sheet, obviously, leverage is still relatively high, but you guys have made some nice progress and seeing that better-than-expected EBITDA growth. So how are you guys feeling about free cash flow? And I guess, year-end leverage and maybe any plans to bring that down a little bit more? Are there any other options to consider, whether it be asset disposition or anything along those lines? Thanks.

然後，謝謝你。僅從資產負債表來看，顯然槓桿率仍然相對較高，但你們已經取得了一些不錯的進展，並且看到了好於預期的 EBITDA 成長。那你們對於自由現金流有什麼看法呢？我想，年底的槓桿率以及是否有任何計劃可以進一步降低一點？還有其他選擇可以考慮嗎，無論是資產處置還是類似的做法？謝謝。

Yes. I mean overall, we are feeling good about free cash flow generation, slightly increased our expectations for the full year, as I mentioned earlier. I think in terms of the deleverage towards year-end, certainly, we expect it to come down from where we are here at the end of Q1 pro direction of terror similar to what we had shown at the year-end 2024. So just some 5 times.

是的。我的意思是，總的來說，我們對自由現金流的產生感到滿意，正如我之前提到的，略微提高了對全年的預期。我認為，就年底去槓桿而言，我們預計它會從第一季末的水平下降，類似於我們在 2024 年底所顯示的那樣，以應對恐怖襲擊。所以只有大約5次。

In terms of what are the key levers for deleveraging? I think (inaudible) really growing the business, EBITDA growth and being disciplined on our capital allocation and yes, managing the working capital and the balance sheet. I don't think there's any bigger structure. I think we have in mind at this particular juncture.

去槓桿的關鍵槓桿是什麼？我認為（聽不清楚）確實在成長業務、EBITDA 成長、嚴格控制資本配置，當然還有管理營運資金和資產負債表。我認為沒有更大的結構了。我想我們在這個特殊的時刻已經考慮到了這一點。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you. With no additional questions in queue. I'd like to turn the call back over to our speakers for any additional or closing remarks.

謝謝。隊列中沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給我們的發言人，以便他們發表任何補充或結束語。

Thanks, Casey, and thanks everyone for joining the call. So yes, just to summarize, we had a good quarter. Global shipments grew by 6%, adjusted up by EBITDA by 16%, both ahead of guidance. with both regions performing strongly.

謝謝，凱西，也謝謝大家參加電話會議。是的，總而言之，我們度過了一個良好的季度。全球出貨量成長 6%，EBITDA 調整後成長 16%，皆超乎預期。兩個地區均表現強勁。

And reflecting that encouraging start, also favorable currency movements and the strength of our business overall, we're raising our expectations for the full year shipments growth and our adjusted EBITDA, and we look forward to talking to you again at our Q2 results. Thank you very much.

鑑於這一令人鼓舞的開局、有利的貨幣走勢以及我們整體業務的強勁表現，我們提高了對全年出貨量增長和調整後 EBITDA 的預期，我們期待在第二季度業績發布後再次與您溝通。非常感謝。

That will conclude today's call. We appreciate your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。