Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging SA quarterly results conference call. Today's conference is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，歡迎參加 Ardagh Metal Packaging SA 季度業績電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I'd like to turn this conference over to Stephen Lyons. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想將本次會議交給史蒂芬‧萊昂斯 (Stephen Lyons)。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody.

謝謝接線員，歡迎大家。

Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's second quarter 2025 earnings call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release in the second quarter. I'm joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer and Stefan Schellinger, AMP's Chief Financial Officer.

感謝您今天參加 Ardagh Metal Packaging 2025 年第二季財報電話會議，這是 AMP 早前發布的第二季財報。今天與我一起出席的還有 AMP 執行長 Oliver Graham 和 AMP 財務長 Stefan Schellinger。

Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook.

在回答您的問題之前，我們將首先對 AMP 的性能和前景進行一些介紹性說明。

AMP's earnings release and related materials for the second quarter can be found on AMP's website at ir.ardaghmetalpackaging.com. Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures.

AMP 第二季的獲利報告及相關資料可至 AMP 網站 ir.ardaghmetalpackaging.com 查閱。今天的評論將包含某些前瞻性陳述，並使用非國際財務報告準則 (IFRS) 財務指標。

Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFS financial measures in AMP's earnings release.

實際結果可能與此類陳述有重大差異。請查看 AMP 前瞻性聲明免責聲明的詳細資訊以及 AMP 收益報告中非國際財務報告準則 (IFS) 財務指標與國際財務報告準則 (IFS) 財務指標的對帳。

I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

現在我將電話轉給奧利佛·葛拉漢。

Thanks, Stephen.

謝謝，史蒂芬。

We continued our strong year-to-date performance in the second quarter with 5% global shipments growth and 18% adjusted EBITDA growth versus the prior year, again, ahead of guidance.

我們在第二季延續了年初至今的強勁表現，全球出貨量較上年同期成長 5%，調整後 EBITDA 成長 18%，再次超越預期。

Our results were particularly driven by strong volume growth in the Americas, reflecting the strength of our customer portfolio with this exposure to several key attractive and growing categories.

我們的業績尤其受到美洲地區強勁銷售成長的推動，這反映了我們的客戶組合實力，涉及幾個關鍵的有吸引力且不斷增長的類別。

Our performance is a testament to the resilience of our business, despite macroeconomic uncertainties with shipments growth reported across each of our markets. Global beverage can growth continues to benefit from innovation and share gains in our customers' packaging mix, and we still anticipate only a minimal impact to our business surviving from the tariff measures announced.

儘管宏觀經濟存在不確定性，但我們的各市場出貨量均有所成長，我們的業績證明了我們業務的韌性。全球飲料罐的成長繼續受益於客戶包裝組合的創新和份額成長，我們仍然預計，宣布的關稅措施對我們的業務的影響將微乎其微。

Now looking at AMP's Q2 results by segment. In Europe, second quarter revenue increased by 9% to $615 million or 4% on a constant currency basis compared with the same period in 2024, principally due to volume growth in the past year of higher input costs to customers. Shipments grew by 1% for the quarter, driven by growth in soft drinks, offsetting some weakness in beer.

現在按部門查看 AMP 的第二季業績。在歐洲，第二季度營收與 2024 年同期相比成長 9% 至 6.15 億美元，以固定匯率計算成長 4%，這主要歸因於過去一年銷售成長導致客戶投入成本增加。本季出貨量成長了 1%，這得益於軟性飲料的成長，抵消了啤酒的一些疲軟影響。

Can sales in beer, despite outgrowing other packaging substrates, were weaker in the quarter, negatively impacted by adverse weather in certain geographies. Soft drinks or good growth, especially in cans, not all of which we were able to follow, giving constraints on certain can formats in the summer season.

儘管啤酒罐的銷量成長速度超過其他包裝基材，但本季啤酒罐的銷量有所下降，受到某些地區惡劣天氣的負面影響。軟性飲料或將出現良好的成長勢頭，尤其是罐裝飲料，但我們無法追蹤所有軟性飲料的成長勢頭，因為夏季某些罐裝飲料的銷量受到限制。

Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe decreased by 3% to $77 million or by 6% on a constant currency basis in line with our expectations, reflecting headwinds related to input costs. This included a temporary impact related to metal timing given falling aluminum prices during the quarter, alongside the expected headwinds this year related to negative PPI and higher aluminum conversion costs. This was partly offset by volume growth and lower operational and overhead costs.

歐洲第二季調整後 EBITDA 下降 3% 至 7,700 萬美元，以固定匯率計算下降 6%，符合我們的預期，反映出與投入成本相關的不利因素。這包括由於本季鋁價下跌而與金屬時機相關的暫時影響，以及今年與負 PPI 和鋁加工成本上升相關的預期阻力。這在一定程度上被銷售成長和營運及管理成本降低所抵銷。

Beverage cans continue to take share in our customers' European packaging mix, and our expectation for shipment's growth is around 3% for full-year 2025. Capacity remains tight in the season in certain geographies and can sizes, and we expect that the continued ramp up of our more recently installed capacity and flexibility investments will support near-term growth.

飲料罐繼續在我們客戶的歐洲包裝組合中佔有一席之地，我們預計 2025 年全年出貨量成長率約為 3%。在某些地區和罐體尺寸的產能在本季度仍然緊張，我們預計，我們最近安裝的產能和靈活性投資的持續增加將支持近期的成長。

In the Americas, revenue in the second quarter increased by 21% to $840 million which reflected higher volumes in the past of higher input costs to customers, including the impact of the higher Midwest premium in the US.

在美洲，第二季的營收成長了 21%，達到 8.4 億美元，這反映了過去客戶投入成本增加導致的銷售增加，包括美國中西部地區保費上漲的影響。

America's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased by 34% to $133 million due to favorable volume growth, category mix, and lower operating costs.

由於銷售成長良好、品類組合良好以及營運成本降低，美國本季調整後的 EBITDA 成長 34%，達到 1.33 億美元。

In North America, shipments increased by 8% for the quarter, a continuation of strong growth from the first quarter and reflecting our portfolio's mix of attractive and growing customers and product categories. Market demand for non-alcoholic beverages in cans was strong in the quarter, with growth in carbonated soft drinks and strong growth in both sparkling waters and in the energy drinks category, which continued its strong quarter one growth and grew by a double-digit percentage. We maintain our guidance for fully North America shipments of mid-single digit growth.

在北美，本季出貨量成長了 8%，延續了第一季的強勁成長勢頭，反映了我們的產品組合具有吸引力且不斷增長的客戶和產品類別。本季度，市場對罐裝非酒精飲料的需求強勁，碳酸軟性飲料成長，氣泡水和能量飲料類別均強勁增長，其中能量飲料延續了第一季的強勁增長勢頭，實現了兩位數的百分比增長。我們維持對整個北美出貨量實現中等個位數成長的預期。

In Brazil, second-quarter beverage can shipments increased by 12%, reflecting favorable customer makes as we outperformed the industry which grew only modestly post-carnival. We retained our guidance for full-year shipment growth with Brazil of at least low-single digit percentage. This reflects the overall softer expected industry backdrop for the second half of the year.

在巴西，第二季度飲料罐出貨量成長了 12%，這反映出客戶的良好表現，使我們的表現優於狂歡節後僅小幅成長的產業。我們維持對巴西全年出貨量至少實現低個位數百分比成長的預期。這反映出預計下半年產業整體環境將更加疲軟。

In summary, for the Americas, we expect shipments growth of mid-single-digit percentage for 2025.

綜上所述，我們預計 2025 年美洲地區的出貨量成長率將達到中等個位數。

I'll hand over now to Stephen to talk you through our financial position before finishing with some concluding remarks.

現在我會把時間交給史蒂芬，讓他向大家介紹我們的財務狀況，然後做最後的總結。

Thank you, Ollie, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，奧利，大家早安，下午好。

We ended the quarter with a robust liquidity position of $680 million. We know that in addition to our strong liquidity position, we have no near-term bond maturities. Net leverage of 5.3 times net debt over the last 12 months adjusted EBITDA represents a decline of half a turn of leverage versus Q2 2024, reflecting adjusted EBITDA growth. It remains our expectation that leverage ratio at the end will be around 5 times.

本季結束時，我們的流動資金狀況強勁，達到 6.8 億美元。我們知道，除了我們強大的流動性狀況外，我們沒有近期債券到期。過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的淨槓桿率為淨債務的 5.3 倍，與 2024 年第二季相比，槓桿率下降了半倍，反映了調整後 EBITDA 的成長。我們仍預期最終槓桿率將在5倍左右。

We reiterate our expectation for adjusted free cash flow for 2025 of at least $150 million. In terms of the various components of free cash flow, our expectations are mostly in line with what we said in April. So we still expect maintenance CapEx of around $135 million, gross CapEx of around $70 million, lease principal repayments of just over $100 million, cash interest of just over $200 million as well as a small outflow in working capital. We now expect cash tax closer to approximately $40 million and as well as small exceptional cash outflows of approximately low-teens millions.

我們重申對 2025 年調整後自由現金流至少 1.5 億美元的預期。就自由現金流的各個組成部分而言，我們的預期與我們四月所說的基本一致。因此，我們仍預期維護資本支出約為 1.35 億美元，總資本支出約為 7,000 萬美元，租賃本金償還額略高於 1 億美元，現金利息略高於 2 億美元，以及營運資金少量流出。我們現在預計現金稅將接近約 4000 萬美元，以及約幾百萬的小額異常現金流出。

We have today announced our quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share, and with that, I'll hand it back to Ollie.

我們今天宣布了每股 0.10 美元的季度普通股息，我將把它交還給奧利。

Thanks, Stefan.

謝謝，史蒂芬。

So just before moving to take your questions, just to recap on our performance and key messages.

因此，在回答你們的問題之前，我們先來回顧一下我們的表現和關鍵訊息。

So firstly, adjusted EBITDA growth in the second quarter of 18% was ahead of guidance underpinned by global shipments growth of 5%, and in particular a strong performance in the Americas. And across our markets, the beverage gang continues to outperform other substrates in the customer's packaging mix, supporting our growth.

首先，第二季調整後的 EBITDA 成長率為 18%，高於預期，這得益於全球出貨量成長 5%，尤其是美洲地區的強勁表現。在我們的整個市場中，飲料類產品在客戶包裝組合中的表現持續優於其他基材，從而支持了我們的成長。

So reflecting our [quarter-two] outperformance and favorable currency movements, and assuming no further adverse change to the current macro environment, we are upgrading our full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. Full-year adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of $705 million to $725 million based on current FX rates. We continue to expect full-year shipments growth for A&P to be between 3% and 4%. In terms of guidance for the third quarter, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of between $200 million and $210 million ahead of the prior year of $196 million.

因此，考慮到我們 [第二季] 的優異表現和有利的貨幣走勢，並假設當前宏觀環境沒有進一步的不利變化，我們將上調全年調整後 EBITDA 指引。根據當前外匯匯率，預計全年調整後 EBITDA 將在 7.05 億美元至 7.25 億美元之間。我們繼續預計 A&P 全年出貨量成長率將在 3% 至 4% 之間。就第三季的預期而言，調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 2 億美元至 2.1 億美元之間，高於去年同期的 1.96 億美元。

So having made these opening remarks, we now proceed to take any questions that you may have.

在做完這些開場白後，我們現在開始回答你們可能提出的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Stefan Diaz, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的史蒂芬·迪亞茲。

Maybe just to begin, another very strong quarter as far as North America in volumes. I know you called out some category mix, but maybe if you could just dig into what you're seeing so far in North America and what your expectations are for the region into the back half.

也許這只是一個開始，就北美銷售而言，這又是一個非常強勁的季度。我知道您提到了一些類別組合，但也許您可以深入了解目前在北美看到的情況以及您對該地區後半部分的期望。

Sure, so look, as you say, we called out I think the main categories that are performing well, which you can see in the public data. So soft drinks generally in cans has had a strong 4 weeks, 12 weeks, 52 weeks. I mean, the market as a whole is probably at a 2% to 3% level, which is very healthy given the size of the market. And then within that, CSD strong energy drinks, particularly strong. So I think last year we were all debating when the energy category would come back, and I think we had strong hopes for 2025, and those have certainly played through with double-digit growth in cans and then the other one we picked out was sparkling waters. We also have strength in our portfolio on the cocktail side which is doing very well with certain innovative new players.

當然，正如你所說，我們指出了我認為表現良好的主要類別，你可以在公開數據中看到。因此，罐裝軟性飲料的銷售量一般持續了 4 週、12 週和 52 週。我的意思是，整個市場可能處於 2% 到 3% 的水平，考慮到市場規模，這是非常健康的。其中，CSD 強力效飲料尤其強勁。所以我認為去年我們都在爭論能源類別何時會回歸，我認為我們對 2025 年抱有強烈的希望，這些希望確實在罐裝飲料的兩位數增長中得到了體現，然後我們挑選的另一個類別是蘇打水。我們的雞尾酒產品組合也實力雄厚，與某些創新新參與者合作非常順利。

And again, I think we're on the right side of the market, beer in cans obviously under pressure with the beer market under pressure. So being in soft drinks, I think has been good for us and then we also, I think, with some strongly growing innovative new customers as well as some well-established customers in those categories.

而且，我認為我們站在了市場的正確一邊，罐裝啤酒顯然也面臨壓力，因為啤酒市場也面臨壓力。因此，我認為從事軟性飲料行業對我們來說是件好事，而且我認為，我們在這些類別中也擁有一些成長強勁的創新新客戶以及一些成熟的客戶。

So if we look to the second half, we're not predicting it to be quite that strong. It was particularly good in the first half, somewhat out of our expectations, so we expect some reduction in that still looks pretty healthy, which is why we're still with our guidance but just not quite as strong as we had it in the first half. And we think that the category trends broadly stay similar, so strengthen those soft drinks categories.

因此，如果我們展望下半年，我們預測它不會那麼強勁。上半年表現特別好，有點超出我們的預期，所以我們預計會有所減少，但看起來仍然相當健康，這就是為什麼我們仍然堅持我們的指導，但不如上半年那麼強勁。我們認為類別趨勢大致保持相似，因此要加強這些軟性飲料類別。

And overall, I've been saying it for a couple of years now. I think it reinforces the growth we've had since 2018, [2019] in North America, we kept everything that we gained through the COVID period and now we see growth again, thanks to the innovation that's going into the can, thanks to the sustainability credentials of the can, so very hopeful that we can sustain this overall level of performance for the market in North America.

總的來說，我已經說了好幾年了。我認為這鞏固了我們自 2018 年 [2019 年] 以來在北美取得的增長，我們保留了在新冠疫情期間獲得的所有收益，現在我們再次看到了增長，這要歸功於罐頭的創新，要歸功於罐頭的可持續性認證，因此我們非常希望能夠在北美市場維持這一整體表現水平。

Thanks. That's very helpful.

謝謝。這非常有幫助。

And then I think you mentioned some capacity constraints in Europe, particularly with CSD. I guess could you just give a little more details around that, maybe if you could size how much of the volume impact that had in the quarter and if you expect these headwinds to continue into the second half. Thanks.

然後我認為您提到了歐洲的一些容量限制，特別是 CSD。我想您能否就此提供更多細節，例如您能否評估一下這對本季的銷售影響有多大，以及您是否預計這些不利因素會持續到下半年。謝謝。

Sure, yeah, so, look, I think the story of Europe was definitely that there was a bit weaker, in general, volumes weren't great in our markets, and can sales similarly suffered a bit for that, the can sales were ahead of other substrates.

當然，是的，所以，看，我認為歐洲的情況肯定是有點弱，總的來說，我們市場的銷量不是很好，罐頭銷售也同樣受到了一些影響，罐頭銷售領先於其他基質。

So the strength was in soft drinks, and there was a lot of strength in soft drinks, but that was also particularly, in the energy category as well as CSD and in slim and sleek sizes that we were a little bit short in the season because we have a strong beer position, so in the bigger can formats that we can't just immediately pivot into smaller formats for soft drinks. So although we've got a good network, lots of options across the market, we couldn't follow all the growth in the season, and that's probably 1 to 2 points of growth that we couldn't follow on the soft drink side.

因此，我們的優勢在於軟性飲料，軟性飲料的優勢非常明顯，但這也特別體現在能量飲料、碳酸飲料和細長型飲料上，由於我們在啤酒市場佔有強勢地位，我們在本季度的供應略有不足，因此在大罐裝飲料方面，我們不能立即轉向小罐裝軟性飲料。因此，儘管我們擁有良好的網絡，市場上有很多選擇，但我們無法跟上整個季度的所有增長，在軟飲料方面，我們可能無法跟上 1 到 2 個點的增長。

I think looking into the second half, I think that in Q1 customers clearly built some good amount of inventory. We had 5% growth Q1, so we're sort of around the 3% year to date, and that's roughly our prediction for the full year. I think the market for cans remains very healthy in Europe, it's on a long-term trend of this number, we've seen other reporting a little bit higher though with a different geographic mix. So it feels like the 3% to 4% market growth, we're around 3% our prediction for the year that feels the right sort of place. I'm very encouraged by just the ongoing growth for the European market overall.

我認為展望下半年，我認為第一季客戶顯然累積了相當數量的庫存。我們第一季的成長率為 5%，所以今年迄今的成長率大約在 3% 左右，這大致也是我們對全年的預測。我認為歐洲的罐頭市場仍然非常健康，這個數字是長期趨勢，我們看到其他報告的數字略高一些，儘管地理分佈不同。因此感覺市場成長率在 3% 到 4% 之間，我們對今年的預測在 3% 左右，這感覺是正確的。我對整個歐洲市場的持續成長感到非常鼓舞。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Thanks for taking my question. Good morning. Congrats on the strong results.

感謝您回答我的問題。早安.恭喜您取得如此優異的成績。

I just wanted to get some more color across, maybe the Americas. It sounds like there was better than expected performance. What do you think that was driven by? Was it strong promotional activity in the quarter?

我只是想傳達更多的色彩，也許是美洲。聽起來表現比預期的好。您認為這是由什麼推動的？本季的促銷活動強勁嗎？

And then I guess, when you think about that, looking ahead, do you expect any drop off in that sell-through? Do you think customers potentially or consumers potentially hoarded product on those promotions or do you expect sell-through to continue over the summer and into the fall.

然後我想，當您考慮到這一點，展望未來，您是否預期銷售量會下降？您是否認為客戶或消費者可能會在這些促銷活動中囤積產品，或者您是否預計銷售會在整個夏季和秋季持續下去。

Yeah, no, look, good question. I think it's obviously hard to look into the crystal ball. Clearly, soft drinks promotions were strong in the first half, among the strongest we've seen, and therefore, you can expect that customers were buying up, what they could see, but again, it's a pretty fast-moving product, so I wouldn't expect to see a huge amount of stockpiling. So I think it will depend what customers do in the second half on the promotional front, whether we see exactly the same momentum.

是的，不，看，好問題。我認為透過水晶球來看事情顯然是困難的。顯然，上半年軟性飲料促銷活動強勁，是我們所見過的最強勁的促銷活動之一，因此，你可以預期顧客會搶購他們所看到的所有產品，但同樣，這是一種銷售速度很快的產品，所以我預計不會出現大量的囤貨。因此，我認為這將取決於客戶在下半年在促銷方面採取的行動，我們是否會看到完全相同的勢頭。

But it's clear in our portfolio that not all of this is promotional, clearly, we've got innovative drinks, new drinks coming to the market in the gut health area, in the cocktails area, sparkling water continues to be very strong. So we don't see that as particularly promotional, and again this is more about, I think, innovation going into the can, which is more a sustainable way forward. So we are predicting that the second half isn't quite as strong as the first half because the first half was really strong but we're not predicting that it's terrible. We're still seeing good growth in the second half in North America.

但從我們的產品組合中可以清楚地看出，並非所有產品都是為了促銷，顯然，我們在腸道健康領域、雞尾酒領域都有創新飲料、新飲料進入市場，蘇打水仍然表現強勁。因此，我們並不認為這有什麼特別的促銷作用，而且我認為這更多的是將創新融入罐頭中，這是一種更可持續的前進方式。因此，我們預測下半年的表現不會像上半年那麼強勁，因為上半年的表現確實很強勁，但我們並不預測它會很糟糕。我們仍然看到北美下半年出現良好的成長。

Thank for that.

謝謝。

And then similarly, in Europe, I guess a little bit weaker than we expected, which is surprising just given continued growth there but maybe there's some specific factors going on, so maybe you can just elaborate on your outlook there as you look into the second half of the year and '26 thanks.

同樣，在歐洲，我想情況會比我們預期的要弱一些，考慮到那裡的持續增長，這是令人驚訝的，但也許有一些特定的因素在起作用，所以也許您可以詳細說明一下您對今年下半年和 26 年的展望，謝謝。

Sure, yeah, no, as I said, I think we've got some specific category geographic issues in the quarter, so had a couple of markets that were particularly weak on beer. We had poor weather, particularly in the south, so for whatever reason, the beer market wasn't as strong as we anticipated and probably everyone anticipated in our geographies, and although, as I say, the can was outperforming the other substrates, the can was also under some pressure as a result of that.

當然，是的，不，正如我所說，我認為我們在本季度遇到了一些特定類別的地理問題，因此有幾個市場在啤酒方面特別疲軟。我們遇到了惡劣的天氣，特別是在南方，所以無論出於什麼原因，啤酒市場都沒有我們預期的那麼強勁，可能也沒有我們所在地區的每個人預期的那麼強勁，儘管正如我所說，罐裝啤酒的表現優於其他基材，但罐裝啤酒也因此承受著一定的壓力。

And again, I wouldn't underestimate I think customers did build inventory much more effectively this year than last year. I think they learned a lesson last year when they were short inventory going into the season, and so, probably the average of our 5% Q1 and our 1% Q2 is the right number to think about for the market, which is pretty much where we picked the market for the year and where we see our second half.

再說一次，我不會低估，我認為今年客戶確實比去年更有效地建立庫存。我認為他們去年吸取了教訓，當時他們進入旺季時庫存不足，因此，我們第一季 5% 和第二季度 1% 的平均值可能是適合市場的正確數字，這幾乎就是我們選擇今年的市場和對下半年的預測。

And again, if I look into 2026, all the good trends are still there for Europe, so we've still got cans gaining share in the mix. We've got Germany still with very low can penetration relative to other developed markets for all the reasons we've talked about. We've got gains in soft drinks that are pretty strong. I think the cans sustainability credentials are only improving in Europe with higher recycled content rates and lower carbon footprint.

再說了，如果我展望2026年，歐洲所有的良好趨勢仍然存在，因此罐頭的市場份額仍然會不斷增加。由於我們討論過的所有原因，德國的罐頭滲透率相對於其他已開發市場來說仍然很低。我們在軟性飲料方面取得了相當強勁的成長。我認為，隨著回收率的提高和碳足跡的降低，歐洲的罐頭永續資格正在不斷提高。

So we see a lot of good trends, I think, for Europe going forward and we anticipate these growth rates on average, and maybe you get some quarter to quarter volatility like this, but overall the 3% to 4% feels like a good place to pick the market.

因此，我認為，我們看到歐洲未來有很多好的趨勢，我們預計這些成長率是平均水平，也許會出現像這樣的季度間波動，但總體而言，3% 到 4% 似乎是選擇市場的好位置。

Great, thanks.

太好了，謝謝。

I could just ask one more, just overall on your footprint, any regions where you feel you would need to take action whether to increase or decrease capacity?

我可以再問一個問題，就您的整體足跡而言，您認為哪些地區需要採取行動來增加或減少容量？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes, certainly no decrease, at this point if we're talking about Europe, I think, we're very tight. The market is clearly very tight in certain can sizes, particularly in the season. Our peers have announced some capacity growth. I think the market needs that. You think this is a $90-plus-billion market now growing at 3%, 4%, then you need some capacity added every year, clearly.

是的，肯定不會減少，就這一點而言，如果我們談論歐洲，我認為，我們非常緊張。顯然，某些尺寸的罐頭市場非常緊張，尤其是在旺季。我們的同行已經宣布了一些產能成長。我認為市場需要這個。你認為這是一個價值 900 多億美元的市場，目前成長率為 3% 或 4%，那麼顯然你每年都需要增加一些產能。

We're getting to the point where we'll have to think about capacity additions. We've got good growth this year in capacity as we ramp up existing investments. We'll put some more flexibility into the network. But that'll take us through '26, but then we'll have to look at the situation and probably we'll need to look at the south before the north, but, we're evaluating that situation as we see our customer mix develop.

我們已經到了必須考慮增加產能的階段。隨著我們加大現有投資，今年我們的產能取得了良好的成長。我們將為網路增添更多的靈活性。但這將使我們度過 26 年，但隨後我們必須考慮情況，可能我們需要先考慮南方，然後再考慮北方，但是，我們會根據客戶組合的發展情況來評估這種情況。

And then if we're talking the other regions, there's still capacity to grow into in. In North America, they are less than we would have thought at the beginning of the year given the strength of the growth, and in Brazil, I think you've signaled there is a decent amount of capacity for us to grow into which has been hard curtail, but mainly in the northeast where, growth is a bit less in the market. But overall, I think, we feel pretty comfortable with our position at the moment for the next 12, 18 months of growth.

如果我們談論其他地區，那麼仍然有發展潛力。在北美，考慮到成長的強勁勢頭，這一數字低於我們年初的預期。在巴西，我認為您已經暗示我們有相當大的成長能力，但這一成長受到了嚴格的限制，主要在東北地區，市場的成長速度略低。但總體而言，我認為，我們對目前的未來 12 至 18 個月的成長狀況感到相當滿意。

Joshua Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的 Joshua Spector。

First, I just want to ask on the European cost side, when you talked about some of the timing and aluminum, how much of an impact was that in the second quarter and do you make that back up in 3Q and that there's maybe some outperformance on margins or is that something that would take longer than that?

首先，我只想問一下歐洲成本方面，當您談到一些時間和鋁的問題時，這對第二季度的影響有多大，您是否會在第三季度將其彌補回來，並且利潤率可能會有一些優異表現，或者這是否需要更長的時間？

Yeah, look I mean, these timing effects, they come and go sometimes they happen in the quarter, sometimes they cross quarters. I don't think we see it particularly being made up in 3Q, but I'll let Stefan comment, but I'd say more just that -- yeah, they happen, they go up and down and it just happens that it was particularly concentrated in this quarter because of the -- all the tariff announcements and then the weakening of the dollar which particularly impacted the euro aluminum pricing and therefore the gap between when we buy it and when we sell it on to customers, but Stefan maybe you want to add something.

是的，我的意思是，這些時間效應，它們來來去去，有時發生在一個季度內，有時會跨季度發生。我認為我們不認為它會在第三季度得到特別彌補，但我會讓斯蒂芬發表評論，但我想說的是 - 是的，它們會發生，它們會上下波動，而且恰好它特別集中在這個季度，因為 - 所有關稅公告以及美元的疲軟特別影響了歐元鋁定價，因此我們購買和出售給客戶之間的差距，但斯蒂芬，也許你想補充一些內容。

Yeah, look, that's obviously right as it's sort of a timing between sort of the price we invoice the customer and the price of what we procure. I wouldn't expect it to come back unless sort of the price moves again fundamentally and depending which direction. So I think, probably we are through most of the effect in Q2, but I wouldn't want this going sort of to be reversed sort of in the near term.

是的，看，這顯然是正確的，因為這是我們向客戶開立的發票價格與我們採購的價格之間的時間差。我不會指望它會回升，除非價格再次發生根本性變動，並且取決於哪個方向。所以我認為，我們可能已經度過了第二季的大部分影響，但我不希望這種情況在短期內逆轉。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then if I could ask about kind of your implied 4Q guidance, I don't think anybody's going to blame anybody for being conservative at this point, but I guess if we look at the implied EBITDA, it's potentially down significantly year on year in 4Q and it's actually even below 2023 EBITDA. Is there anything specific that you're seeing that would drive your assumptions there, either pull into 3Q or something else that you call out?

然後，如果我可以問一下您對第四季度隱含指引的看法，我認為沒有人會責怪任何人現在採取保守態度，但我想如果我們看一下隱含的 EBITDA，它會在第四季度同比大幅下降，實際上甚至低於 2023 年的 EBITDA。您是否看到了什麼具體的東西來推動您的假設，無論是進入 3Q 還是您所說的其他東西？

No, I think, I mean, you mentioned that we -- it's an uncertain environment from a market perspective, I think, the European side of the business of facing some cost at when we talked about so that will also impact the Q4. I think Q4 last year [Europe] was also a relative strong did someone from a growth perspective a quarter.

不，我認為，我的意思是，您提到我們——從市場角度來看，這是一個不確定的環境，我認為，當我們談論時，歐洲業務面臨一些成本，這也會影響第四季度。我認為去年第四季[歐洲]的表現也相對強勁，從成長角度來看是一個季度。

And then I think, in South America just, relative to half one as we said, we anticipate, certainly a slowdown in terms of our [own one] growth is significantly outperformed from the market and the overall market is relatively slow. I think we see that very low-single digit growth. So these are probably a few things to call out here.

然後我認為，在南美，正如我們所說，我們預計，我們的成長肯定會放緩，遠遠落後於市場，而且整體市場也相對較慢。我認為我們看到的是極低的個位數成長。因此，這裡可能需要指出以下幾點。

Richard Carlson, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的理查卡爾森。

Hey, good morning guys. I'm standing in for Gabe Hadje today.

嘿，大家早安。今天我代替 Gabe Hadje。

So just to follow up on the last question about the back half guy because I think that is something that's catching a lot of people's eyes today other than the slowdown and the growth that you guys are referenced, are there any other major cost pieces that are in there that we need to keep in mind when we're modeling this out?

因此，我只是想跟進關於後半部分的最後一個問題，因為我認為除了你們提到的經濟放緩和增長之外，這是今天引起很多人關注的事情，還有其他主要成本部分需要我們在建模時牢記嗎？

And then also just from that growth perspective, you've definitely had a lot of outperformance in North America so far year to date, Brazil looks quite good, I guess Europe maybe is a little bit disappointing, but what are the really the biggest moving pieces between the first-half growth rates and the second-half growth rates?

然後僅從成長角度來看，今年到目前為止，你們在北美的表現確實非常出色，巴西的表現看起來也相當不錯，我想歐洲可能有點令人失望，但上半年增長率和下半年增長率之間最大的變動因素是什麼？

So I think, yeah, look, I talked a bit about the different markets, but I think Europe, we see roughly at the same rate in the second half, but we're being a little bit cautious after a difficult second quarter relative to expectations.

所以我認為，是的，看，我談了一些不同的市場，但我認為歐洲下半年的成長速度大致相同，但在第二季相對於預期而言比較艱難之後，我們變得有點謹慎。

And then both Brazil and North America, we are predicting some slowdown on the rate. As Stefan just said, the Brazil market has grown 1% year to date and we've grown more -- significantly more than that and 12% in Q2, nearly 8% in year to date.

我們預測巴西和北美的成長速度將會放緩。正如史蒂芬剛才所說，巴西市場今年迄今已成長了 1%，而我們的成長幅度更大——遠高於這個數字，第二季成長了 12%，今年迄今成長了近 8%。

So again, that's a result that's been talked about on these calls and our peers calls. We're all serving the big brewers, some of them promote in some quarters, some promote in other quarters. So you have to assume that your mix plays for you at some point that doesn't always play for you through the year.

所以，這是我們在這些電話會議和同儕電話會議上討論的結果。我們都為大型釀酒商服務，他們有的在某些方面進行推廣，有的在其他方面進行推廣。因此，你必須假設你的混音在某個時候會為你發揮作用，但並不總是在一年中為你發揮作用。

So we've assumed some reversion to the mean in Brazil and then, again in North America, we had such a strong first half that we haven't seen that replicates fully through the second half. So, I think clearly applying some appropriate caution.

因此，我們假設巴西的經濟將回歸均值，而北美的經濟也是如此，上半年我們表現非常強勁，但下半年我們還沒有看到這種勢頭完全重現。因此，我認為顯然要採取一些適當的謹慎態度。

And then, as Stefan just said, I think Q4 is our way out. The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, and so, we're just reflecting that, I think, in some appropriate caution relative to our Q3 guide, which is another growth. So there's no extra cost pieces we've talked about the input costs on Europe. We don't see any additional cost pieces as we go into the back half of the year. I think that's right, isn't it, Stefan?

然後，正如史蒂芬剛才所說，我認為 Q4 是我們的出路。宏觀經濟環境仍然不確定，因此，我認為，我們只是在相對於第三季指南採取適當的謹慎態度來反映這一點，這是另一種增長。因此，我們討論的歐洲投入成本中沒有額外的成本。進入下半年，我們沒有看到任何額外的成本。我認為這是對的，不是嗎，史蒂芬？

Yeah, that's correct.

是的，沒錯。

Got it. Thank you for that.

知道了。謝謝你。

And then I guess just specific to the energy market, that's been of course a really hot market here in North America, probably going to see some tougher cops coming up soon, but what are you guys seeing there? And do you have a view on whether or not the incremental buyer of an energy beverage is leaving sodas? Are they getting from CSDs and maybe cannibalize CSDs? And if that is happening, how does that impact you guys? It seems like maybe your exposure or your market share within energy is quite a bit higher than CSD. So just wonder if you guys have thought about how some of the dynamics and the buying between CSDs and energy is impacting you.

然後我想具體到能源市場，這當然是北美一個非常熱門的市場，可能很快就會看到一些更強硬的警察出現，但你們在那裡看到了什麼？您是否認為能量飲料的增量買家是否會放棄碳酸飲料？他們是從中央證券存管取得資金，還是可能蠶食中央證券存管處？如果發生這種情況，會對你們產生什麼影響？看起來您在能源領域的曝光率或市場份額可能比 CSD 高得多。所以我想知道你們是否考慮過中央證券存管處和能源之間的一些動態和購買對你們的影響。

Yeah, we're not seeing that. I mean, I think, I don't have any detailed data on exactly what the switching is, but we're certainly seeing CSD in candles with very good growth. We're seeing continued share gain. I think I saw data saying we're up to 56% and PAT is down to 40%, so that which is going on. So we're seeing good growth from our perspective in both energy and CSD and we're not seeing that that's some sort of trade-off.

是的，我們沒有看到這一點。我的意思是，我認為，我沒有任何關於轉換的具體詳細數據，但我們確實看到蠟燭中的 CSD 增長非常好。我們看到份額持續成長。我認為我看到的數據顯示我們已上升至 56% 而 PAT 下降至 40%，所以情況就是這樣。因此，從我們的角度來看，能源和 CSD 都呈現出良好的成長勢頭，而且我們不認為這是一種權衡。

So yeah, not concerned about this that at this point. And then within the energy category, you've got new players that are performing seemingly strongly. You've got existing players performing strongly. So I think it's what we said last year that this is a big strong category with very successful players who know all about innovation and they had -- they took a breather last year, but they've really brought it back to the market in a strong way this year, so very pleasing that they've done that.

是的，目前我並不擔心這件事。然後在能源類別中，你會看到一些表現看似強勁的新玩家。現有的球員表現強勁。所以我認為就像我們去年說的那樣，這是一個非常強大的類別，擁有非常成功的參與者，他們懂得一切創新，他們去年稍事休息，但今年他們真的以強勢的方式將其帶回了市場，所以很高興他們這樣做了。

Got it. And just last one for me, same question you guys have got in the last few quarters was just on this the MAHA Movement, especially here in North America with switch to potentially less artificial sweeteners and dyes or things. Are you hearing any increased conversation from your customers about the potential headwind that that could be (inaudible) to their business?

知道了。對我來說，最後一個問題是，你們在過去幾季遇到的同樣的問題，就是關於 MAHA 運動，特別是在北美，人們開始減少使用人工甜味劑和染料等物質。您是否聽到客戶越來越多地談論這可能會給他們的業務帶來（聽不清楚）的潛在阻力？

No, really nothing specific, to be honest. And again, if I look at our position in those categories, it still seems to be growing at the expense of other substrates and when I think about the impact of that, it could also fall more on other substrates. So, yeah, nothing very specific on that to comment on.

不，說實話，真的沒有什麼特別的。再說一次，如果我看一下我們在這些類別中的地位，它似乎仍然以犧牲其他基質為代價而增長，當我考慮其影響時，它在其他基質上的下降幅度也可能更大。是的，對此沒有特別具體的評論。

Great, thanks guys and good luck on Q3.

太好了，謝謝大家，祝第三季好運。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Michael Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Michael Roxland。

This is Niccolo Piccini on from Mike. Thanks for taking my questions.

我是 Mike 的 Niccolo Piccini。感謝您回答我的問題。

I guess first off, can you speak to any manufacturing efficiency that that could have contributed to the performance this year so far, and how should we think about what you target there going forward?

我想首先，您能否談談迄今為止對今年業績有所貢獻的製造效率，以及我們應該如何考慮您未來的目標？

Yeah, look, I think, we referenced in the remarks that there have been improved operational costs on both sides of the Atlantic. Obviously, North America helped by the fact that we're running so full. We're very low inventory levels in North America for another year. And obviously, when you run the plants fuller unit costs drop and efficiencies grow.

是的，我想，我們在評論中提到大西洋兩岸的營運成本都有所改善。顯然，北美市場對我們很有幫助，因為我們的業務非常繁忙。我們北美的庫存水準在未來一年內都將處於非常低的水準。顯然，當工廠全面運作時，單位成本就會下降，效率也會提高。

So that's definitely helped but then I think our Europe performance has been very pleasing on the manufacturing side, so good production levels, good cost performance. So overall, yeah, we're happy with the network. We have manufacturing efficiency targets built in every year; it's the nature of can making. So yeah, we're not going to talk about them specifically, they're part of our guidance and we're looking obviously very ambitiously at cost savings and increased efficiency in our manufacturing network and that's supported by a number of big programs within the business.

這肯定有幫助，但我認為我們在歐洲的製造方面表現非常令人滿意，生產水平良好，成本表現良好。總的來說，我們對網路很滿意。我們每年都設定製造效率目標；這是製罐的本質。是的，我們不會具體談論它們，它們是我們指導的一部分，我們顯然非常雄心勃勃地希望節省成本並提高製造網路的效率，這得到了業務內許多大型專案的支持。

Got it, thank you very much.

明白了，非常感謝。

And then just, secondly, if you could speak to maybe contract negotiations, I imagine at this point in the year, your 2026 volumes are maybe largely contracted but can you speak to how much it is for '26 and how much you have under contract for 2027?

其次，如果您可以談談合約談判，我想在今年的這個時候，您 2026 年的合約數量可能已經基本確定，但您能說一下 2026 年的合約數量是多少，以及 2027 年的合約數量是多少嗎？

Yeah, like you say, we're largely either contracted or well through any negotiation process for 2026, so we're increasingly got good visibility there. And then '27 actually a year recently, I mean, I don't have the exact percentage to hand, but it is recently fully contracted we're getting through the wave of CSD tenders in North America now. Europe has been a decent amount of activity this year, which is closing and should take us through 2027, so yeah, I think, the business of getting through that, if you like, the wave of post-COVID contract renewals, and we're starting to get pretty good visibility on '26 and beyond, volume wise.

是的，就像你說的，我們基本上已經簽訂了合同，或者已經順利完成了 2026 年的談判過程，因此我們在那裡的知名度越來越高。然後實際上是最近一年的 27，我的意思是，我手頭上沒有確切的百分比，但最近已經完全簽約了，我們現在正在經歷北美的 CSD 招標浪潮。歐洲今年的活動量相當大，這些活動即將結束，應該會持續到 2027 年，所以，是的，我認為，如果你願意的話，度過後疫情時代合約續約的浪潮，我們開始對 2026 年及以後的交易量有相當好的了解。

Got it. Thank you very much. Good luck in the quarter.

知道了。非常感謝。祝本季好運。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

And it appears there are no further questions.

看起來沒有其他問題了。

Stefan Diaz.

史蒂芬·迪亞茲。

(technical difficulty) commentary that the European market is rather tight and just giving your cash flow profile and some cash commitments with the dividend, do you think you're well positioned to capture some of that future growth if we think on 12 to 18 months if you feel like you need to expand capacity in the region?

（技術難題）評論說歐洲市場相當緊張，並且僅給出您的現金流狀況和一些股息現金承諾，如果我們考慮 12 到 18 個月，您是否認為您有能力抓住未來的一些增長機會，如果您覺得您需要擴大該地區的產能？

Yeah, I'll start and then I'll let Stefan pick it up as well.

是的，我先開始，然後我也讓史蒂芬接手。

But look, as I mentioned, we're ramping up probably in the order of $1 billion of capacity this year with the projects that we completed in '23 and '24 and with some improvements to those projects and some speed ups. So that's already taking us healthily through this year and into next year and then we have another some other areas where we can still see capacity growth in the existing footprint next year.

但是，正如我所提到的，我們今年的產能可能會增加 10 億美元，其中包括 23 年和 24 年完成的項目，以及對這些項目的一些改進和加速。因此，這已經使我們健康地度過今年和明年，然後我們在其他一些領域明年仍然可以看到現有足跡的產能成長。

And then I think we signaled -- we might have to add something under the existing footprint going into '27, and we've talked about CapEx levels for this year being broadly similar, probably next year. So I think that when I look at our growth profile for Europe, I'm not concerned. I think we can manage that within our existing forecasts and stay relevant and competitive in the market, but I'll also pass that on to Stefan.

然後我想我們發出了信號——我們可能必須在現有足跡下增加一些東西，以進入 27 年，我們已經討論過今年的資本支出水平大致相似，可能明年也是如此。因此我認為，當我看到歐洲的成長概況時，我並不擔心。我認為我們可以在現有預測範圍內實現這一目標，並保持在市場上的相關性和競爭力，但我也會將這一目標傳遞給史蒂芬。

Yeah, look, I fully agree. I mean, obviously we gave indications for this year in terms of growth CapEx. I think all projects, I think, we have a line of sight of and we feel good return opportunities in terms of extensions, speed ups. I think we are going ahead with and I think for the foreseeable future, I think we have -- I think good visibility in our pipeline of projects and I think we can address those within the existing cash flow profile.

是的，我完全同意。我的意思是，顯然我們在成長資本支出方面對今年做出了指示。我認為所有專案我們都看到了前景，並且感覺到在擴展和加速方面有良好的回報機會。我認為我們正在繼續前進，我認為在可預見的未來，我們的專案管道具有良好的透明度，我認為我們可以在現有的現金流狀況下解決這些問題。

Thanks, that's really helpful.

謝謝，這真的很有幫助。

So I guess maybe just like digging into that a little further, so potentially any capacity that needs to be added beyond the $1 billion that you mentioned that you're adding this year would be more Brownfield type projects if we assume demand stays on the same trajectory than needing Greenfields. Is that a correct assumption?

所以我想也許就像進一步深入研究這個問題一樣，如果我們假設需求保持相同的軌跡而不是需要綠地，那麼除了您提到的今年增加的 10 億美元之外，任何需要增加的產能都可能更多是棕地類型的項目。這是一個正確的假設嗎？

Yeah, I think, I mean that's definitely a good assumption. I think, I mean, Brownfield could imply to some listeners that you need to build some big new plant, but it's an existing building, right? We're talking genuinely under the roof, so existing facilities, which obviously are the most efficient and lowest cost capital investment. So that's what we see for the next two, three years in Europe that we certainly don't need to be building major new facilities at this point.

是的，我認為，這絕對是一個很好的假設。我認為，我的意思是，Brownfield 可能對一些聽眾意味著你需要建造一些大型新工廠，但它是一座現有的建築，對嗎？我們真正談論的是屋簷下，所以現有的設施顯然是最有效且成本最低的資本投資。因此，我們認為未來兩三年歐洲肯定不需要建造大型新設施。

Great, thank you both and good luck in the back half of the year.

太好了，謝謝你們，祝你們下半年好運。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

And it appears there are no further questions at this time, I'll turn the conference back to Oliver Graham for any additional or closing remarks.

目前似乎沒有其他問題了，我將把會議交還給奧利佛·格雷厄姆，請他發表補充意見或結束語。

Thanks, Lisa. So thank you for joining our call. So just to summarize another very strong quarter for AMP global shipments grew by 5% in the quarter, adjusted EBITDA by 18% ahead of guidance, particularly driven by the Americas. And reflecting that quarter to outperformance and favorable currency movements, we're again raising our expectations for full-year adjusted EBITDA.

謝謝，麗莎。感謝您參加我們的電話會議。總結一下，AMP 本季表現非常強勁，全球出貨量成長 5%，調整後 EBITDA 超出預期 18%，主要得益於美洲市場的推動。鑑於該季度的優異表現和有利的貨幣走勢，我們再次提高了對全年調整後 EBITDA 的預期。

So with that, thanks for joining and we look forward to talking to you again at the Q3 results.

因此，感謝您的加入，我們期待在第三季業績發佈時再次與您交談。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes our call today. You may now disconnect from the call and thank you for participating.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的通話到此結束。現在您可以掛斷電話了，感謝您的參與。