Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stephen Lyons, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

歡迎參加 Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. 2023 年第四季業績電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係部的 Stephen Lyons 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the fourth quarter and the full year. I'm joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer; and David Bourne, AMP's Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝運營商，歡迎大家。感謝您今天參加 Ardagh Metal Packaging 的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議，此前 AMP 發布了第四季度和全年收益報告。今天，AMP 執行長 Oliver Graham 也加入了我的行列。以及 AMP 財務長 David Bourne。

Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. AMP's earnings release, related materials for the fourth quarter can be found on AMP's website at www.ardaghmetalpackaging.com. Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release.

在回答您的問題之前，我們將首先對 AMP 的業績和前景進行一些介紹性評論。 AMP第四季財報發布及相關資料可在AMP網站www.ardaghmetalpackaging.com上找到。今天的評論將包括某些前瞻性陳述，並包括非國際財務報告準則財務指標的使用。實際結果可能與此類聲明有重大差異。請在 AMP 收益報告中查看 AMP 前瞻性聲明免責聲明以及非 IFRS 財務指標與 IFRS 財務指標調節表的詳細資訊。

I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

我現在將把電話轉給奧利佛·格雷厄姆。

Thank you, Stephen. 2023 represents a year of transition for our business as the team navigated a challenging macro demand environment and took decisive action on our footprint and inventories to position the business for growth in 2024 and beyond. Despite the market context, in particular, softer European demand, we achieved record global revenues and shipment volumes, which grew by 5% for the full year and 2% in the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，史蒂芬。 2023 年是我們業務轉型的一年，團隊應對充滿挑戰的宏觀需求環境，並對我們的足跡和庫存採取果斷行動，為 2024 年及以後的業務成長做好準備。儘管市場環境特別是歐洲需求疲軟，但我們的全球營收和出貨量仍創歷史新高，全年成長 5%，第四季成長 2%。

Our Americas segment grew at an almost mid-teens percentage, driven by strong growth in both regions. Our actions on energy pass-through to our customers in Europe resulted in stronger inflation recovery but this was more than offset by unfavorable volume mix effects with a significant decline in production activity and shipments experienced in the second half of the year, which also impacted fixed cost absorption.

在這兩個地區強勁成長的推動下，我們的美洲業務成長了近十幾%。我們向歐洲客戶傳遞能源的行動導致了更強勁的通膨復甦，但這被不利的銷售組合效應所抵消，下半年生產活動和出貨量大幅下降，這也影響了固定收益。成本吸收。

In Brazil, full year shipment growth was below initial expectations due to consumer weakness and customer mix, which included the customer restructuring that is now resolved but with an encouraging sequential improvements in shipment trends during the second half and a strong Q4 against a weak prior year comparable.

在巴西，由於消費者疲軟和客戶組合（其中包括現已解決的客戶重組），全年出貨量增長低於最初預期，但下半年出貨量趨勢出現令人鼓舞的連續改善，且第四季度較去年疲軟表現強勁可比。

Our team's efforts on working capital management in this challenging environment generated a near tripling of cash from operating activities, resulting in AMP ending the year in a robust liquidity position. Our fourth quarter performance was negatively impacted versus our expectations by weaker-than-expected volume and mix effects in Europe, which was partly offset by a stronger performance in the Americas.

在這個充滿挑戰的環境中，我們的團隊在營運資本管理方面的努力使經營活動產生的現金增加了近兩倍，使 AMP 在年底保持了強勁的流動性狀況。與我們的預期相比，我們第四季的業績受到歐洲銷售和混合效應弱於預期的負面影響，但美洲強勁的業績在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。

European shipments deteriorated towards the end of the quarter and well below retail scanner trends, which were more positive, reflecting what we view to be largely customer destocking actions. There was a clear divergence of performance by customer and geography, and with a gravitation towards value brands and private label.

歐洲出貨量在本季末惡化，遠低於零售掃描器趨勢，零售掃描器趨勢更為積極，反映出我們認為主要是客戶去庫存行動。不同客戶和地理的表現有明顯差異，並且傾向於價值品牌和自有品牌。

Our confidence in a stronger performance in 2024 reflects our expectations for volume growth in all regions, leading to improved cost absorption in addition to our footprint actions. Inflationary pressures are moderating and the beverage can continues to win share as the package of choice by customer innovation and its sustainability advantages.

我們對 2024 年業績更加強勁的信心反映了我們對所有地區銷售成長的預期，除了我們的足跡行動之外，還可以改善成本吸收。通貨膨脹壓力正在緩和，飲料罐憑藉著客戶創新及其永續性優勢，繼續贏得作為包裝選擇的市場份額。

We are committed to balancing our network capacity with demand through a mix of curtailment and longer-term action as appropriate. The 2 remaining steel lines in Weissenthurm, Germany closed at the end of the year as previously indicated. In North America, we closed our 2 lines facility in Whitehouse, Ohio this month, which will improve network utilization to a more appropriately balanced position. These permanent actions will optimize our network and drive earnings improvement.

我們致力於透過適當的削減和長期行動來平衡我們的網路容量與需求。如前所述，德國魏森圖姆剩餘的 2 條鋼鐵生產線已於今年底關閉。在北美，我們本月關閉了俄亥俄州懷特豪斯的 2 條線路設施，這將提高網路利用率，達到更適當的平衡位置。這些永久性行動將優化我們的網路並推動獲利改善。

With our well-invested global manufacturing base and a strong diverse mix of customer relationships, we remain well placed to benefit from a normalization in demand, which should drive further earnings growth over the medium term. During the quarter, the publication of our 2023 sustainability report highlighted our progress on sustainability initiatives. The recently announced supply agreement with Novelis in North America for supply from its greenfield development will further contribute towards AMP's metal decarbonization strategy. AMP, alongside other industry stakeholders, participated in a call for action at COP 28, and we look forward to updating you on further progress on sustainability during 2024.

憑藉我們投資充足的全球製造基地和強大的多元化客戶關係組合，我們仍然能夠從需求正常化中受益，這將推動中期利潤進一步成長。本季度，我們發布了 2023 年永續發展報告，突顯了我們在永續發展措施方面的進展。最近宣布與北美諾貝麗斯就其綠地開發項目的供應達成供應協議，這將進一步促進 AMP 的金屬脫碳策略。 AMP 與其他產業利害關係人一起參與了 COP 28 上的行動呼籲，我們期待向您通報 2024 年永續發展的最新進展。

Turning now our attention to AMP's fourth quarter results. We recorded (technical difficulty) fourth quarter of $1.1 billion, an increase of 5%, which reflected favorable volume mix and higher input cost recovery, partly offset by the pass-through to customers of lower input costs. Adjusted EBITDA of $148 million was down 7% on the prior year, with growth in the Americas more than offset by a decline in Europe in excess of our expectation, which reflected customer caution and apparent destocking against a weak consumer backdrop.

現在讓我們專注於 AMP 第四季的業績。我們第四季的（技術難度）營收為 11 億美元，成長了 5%，這反映出有利的銷售組合和更高的投入成本回收，但部分被較低投入成本向客戶的轉嫁所抵消。調整後 EBITDA 為 1.48 億美元，比上年下降 7%，美洲的成長被歐洲的下降超出了我們的預期所抵消，這反映出客戶的謹慎態度以及在消費疲軟的背景下明顯的去庫存。

Total beverage can shipments in the quarter were 2% higher than the prior year with 14% growth in Americas, offsetting a 10% decline in Europe. We had a strong cash performance with adjusted operating cash flow approaching $500 million for the quarter and $680 million for the full year. This reflected our team's focus on working capital, in particular, inventory management and our ongoing reduction in capital expenditure.

本季飲料罐總出貨量比去年同期成長 2%，其中美洲成長 14%，抵消了歐洲 10% 的下降。我們的現金表現強勁，本季調整後的營運現金流接近 5 億美元，全年調整後的營運現金流接近 6.8 億美元。這反映了我們團隊對營運資本的關注，特別是庫存管理以及我​​們持續減少資本支出。

Turning now to AMP's results by segment. Revenue in the Americas in the fourth quarter increased by 11% to $705 million, which reflected shipments growth partly offset by lower input costs. In North America, shipments grew by 8% for the quarter and 13% for the year. Our shipment growth was broadly in line with our expectations, which drove record profitability. This strong outperformance versus the market reflects the contribution from customer contract commitments arising from our investment program as well as the diverse mix of our portfolio weighted towards non-alcoholic beverages, including the high-growth functional energy drinks segment.

現在來看看 AMP 按細分市場劃分的結果。第四季度美洲地區的營收成長了 11%，達到 7.05 億美元，反映出出貨量的成長部分被較低的投入成本所抵銷。在北美，本季出貨量成長 8%，全年出貨量成長 13%。我們的出貨量成長基本上符合我們的預期，這推動了創紀錄的獲利能力。與市場相比，這種強勁的表現反映了我們的投資計畫所產生的客戶合約承諾的貢獻，以及我們偏重於非酒精飲料的投資組合的多樣化組合，包括高成長的功能性能量飲料領域。

Looking at the market overall, demand remained somewhat constrained by higher retail pricing and lower levels of promotional activity than historical norms. Industry demand trends improved in Q4, and we expect further improvement into 2024 as input costs moderate, retail pricing stabilizes and consumers see real wage growth. We're encouraged by our strong annual growth in shipments in 2023, our pipeline of contracted growth and good early momentum so far in 2024. This supports our forecast for shipments in our North American business, the growth by a mid- to high single-digit percentage this year versus a low single-digit percentage growth for the industry.

從整體市場來看，需求仍然受到零售價格高於歷史水平和促銷活動水平低於歷史水平的一定程度的限制。第四季產業需求趨勢有所改善，隨著投入成本溫和、零售價格穩定以及消費者看到實質薪資成長，我們預計 2024 年將進一步改善。我們對 2023 年出貨量的強勁年度增長、我們的合約成長管道以及 2024 年迄今為止的良好早期勢頭感到鼓舞。這支持了我們對北美業務出貨量的預測，即中高單增長今年的數字百分比與該行業較低的個位數百分比成長相比。

In Brazil, fourth quarter shipments increased by 34% against a weak prior year comparable, outperforming the mid-single-digit increase in the market. We experienced encouraging sales momentum with a number of key customers. Shipments grew by 3% for the full year, which was slightly ahead of the market. We forecast modest shipments growth for our Brazil business in 2024, and we continue to balance our capacity through curtailment of our network.

在巴西，第四季出貨量與去年同期相比成長了 34%，表現優於市場中個位數的增幅。我們與許多主要客戶的銷售動能令人鼓舞。全年出貨量成長3%，略領先市場。我們預計 2024 年巴西業務的出貨量將出現適度成長，並且我們將繼續透過削減網路來平衡我們的產能。

We are confident in the growth potential of the business but remain cautious in the near term given the softness over the last 2 years. The market has started the year strongly but we would highlight the earlier date for Carnival this year, which may have had some impact in pulling forward demand.

我們對該業務的成長潛力充滿信心，但鑑於過去兩年的疲軟，短期內仍保持謹慎態度。今年市場開局強勁，但我們要強調今年狂歡節的提前日期，這可能對拉動需求產生了一些影響。

Adjusted EBITDA in the Americas increased by 3% to $117 million in the fourth quarter as the contribution from higher volumes was offset by favorable prior year effects, which included a contribution from unfulfilled customer contractual volume commitments. In 2024, we expect shipments growth in the Americas of a mid-single-digit percentage. Shipments growth and improved fixed cost absorption will drive growth in adjusted EBITDA in 2024.

美洲季度在第四季度調整後 EBITDA 成長 3%，達到 1.17 億美元，銷售量增加的貢獻被上一年的有利影響所抵消，其中包括未履行的客戶合約銷售承諾的貢獻。到 2024 年，我們預計美洲的出貨量將實現中個位數百分比成長。出貨量成長和固定成本吸收的改善將推動 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 的成長。

In Europe, fourth quarter revenue decreased by 10% on a constant currency basis to $427 million compared with the same period in 2023, principally due to unfavorable volume mix effects, partly offset by a higher input cost recovery. Shipments for the quarter declined by 10% on the prior year as sales volumes decelerated sharply towards the end of the quarter.

在歐洲，以固定匯率計算，第四季營收較 2023 年同期下降 10%，至 4.27 億美元，主要是由於不利的銷售組合效應，但部分被較高的投入成本回收所抵銷。由於銷量在接近季度末時急劇下降，本季出貨量較上年同期下降 10%。

For the full year, shipments declined by 2%, with growth in the first half more than offset by the second half deterioration. Consumer demand remains weak, given household financial pressures but the decline in shipments experienced by ourselves and the industry was broad-based and significantly in excess of retail scanner trends in the quarter. We believe this reflected elevated customer destocking into the end of the year. Scanner trends also showed an improvement in consumer volumes towards the end of the quarter [at odds] with shipments experience as customers took increased levels of downtime over the holiday period.

全年出貨量下降 2%，上半年的成長被下半年的惡化所抵銷。考慮到家庭財務壓力，消費者需求仍然疲軟，但我們自己和行業所經歷的出貨量下降是廣泛的，並且明顯超過本季零售掃描儀的趨勢。我們認為這反映了年底客戶庫存減少的情況。掃描器趨勢也顯示，到本季末消費者數量有所改善，這與出貨體驗有差異，因為客戶在假期期間的停機時間增加了。

Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe decreased by 35% at constant currency to $31 million due to volume mix effects and reduced fixed cost absorption, which offset stronger input cost recovery versus the prior year. Reduced production activity as finished goods inventory was rightsized earlier than expected, resulted in higher fixed cost under absorption and a lower margin contribution than expected from the period-end contract asset. We took action on our footprint with the closure of Weissenthurm steel lines at the end of the year, and we will continue to keep our network under review to balance supply with demand and improve efficiency.

由於產量混合效應和固定成本吸收減少，抵消了較上年強勁的投入成本回收，歐洲第四季度調整後 EBITDA 按固定匯率計算下降了 35%，至 3,100 萬美元。由於產成品庫存調整早於預期，生產活動減少，導致吸收的固定成本較高，期末合約資產的利潤貢獻低於預期。我們在年底關閉了 Weissenthurm 鋼鐵生產線，對我們的足跡採取了行動，我們將繼續審查我們的網絡，以平衡供需並提高效率。

For 2024, we expect low single-digit percent shipments growth with a stronger performance in the second half. Volume growth and improved fixed cost absorption will drive adjusted EBITDA growth in 2024 but partly offset by competitive pressure on a small portion of our business and some upstream cost increases, reflecting elevated energy costs.

對於 2024 年，我們預計出貨量將出現低個位數百分比成長，下半年表現將更為強勁。產量成長和固定成本吸收的改善將推動 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 成長，但部分被我們一小部分業務的競爭壓力和一些上游成本增加（反映能源成本上升）所抵消。

I'll now briefly hand over to David to talk you through our financial position before finishing with some concluding remarks.

現在，我將簡要地請大衛向您介紹我們的財務狀況，然後再做一些總結性發言。

Thanks, Ollie, and hello, everyone. We ended the year with a liquidity position in excess of $800 million, ahead of our expectation. The success of our working capital initiatives resulted in an inflow for the full year of $270 million, ahead of our most recent guidance of $200 million. During the period, our team responded to customer destocking in Europe to rightsize our finished goods inventory, which followed similar action in the Americas in previous quarters. This resulted in adjusted operating cash flow of $680 million for the year, up from $255 million in the prior year.

謝謝奧利，大家好。年底，我們的流動性部位超過 8 億美元，超出了我們的預期。我們營運資金計畫的成功導致全年流入 2.7 億美元，高於我們最近指導的 2 億美元。在此期間，我們的團隊回應了歐洲客戶的去庫存，調整了我們的成品庫存，此前幾季在美洲也採取了類似的行動。這使得本年度調整後的營運現金流達到 6.8 億美元，高於前一年的 2.55 億美元。

Our expectation for 2024 is for a further working capital inflow across the full year after our usual seasonal outflow in Q1. AMP incurred maintenance CapEx of $112 million, growth CapEx of $266 million and growth investment via lease additions of $71 million in 2023. Total growth investment of $337 million was tightly managed below our initial guidance of just under $400 million, and represents a 45% reduction versus the prior year.

我們對 2024 年的預期是，繼第一季通常的季節性流出之後，全年營運資本將進一步流入。 2023 年，AMP 的維護資本支出為1.12 億美元，成長資本支出為2.66 億美元，透過租賃增加進行的成長投資為7,100 萬美元。總成長投資3.37 億美元受到嚴格管理，低於我們略低於4億美元的初步指導，減少了45%與前一年相比。

Our growth investment program is substantially complete with growth CapEx in 2024 to reduce to approximately $100 million, which mainly comprises flexibility enhancements to our network and the final cash flows for some of the growth projects concluding. We anticipate a further reduction in growth CapEx again in 2025. Our leverage metric ended the year at 5.5x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, falling by 0.2x in the quarter, supported by lower net debt arising from strong cash flow generation. We anticipate modest deleveraging on a full year basis during 2024 and a more meaningful reduction thereafter.

我們的成長投資計畫已基本完成，到 2024 年成長資本支出將減少至約 1 億美元，其中主要包括我們網路的靈活性增強以及一些已結束的成長項目的最終現金流。我們預計 2025 年成長資本支出將再次進一步減少。我們的槓桿指標截至年底為調整後 EBITDA 淨負債的 5.5 倍，本季下降 0.2 倍，這得益於強勁的現金流產生帶來的淨負債下降。我們預計 2024 年全年將出現適度去槓桿化，此後將出現更有意義的降槓桿。

Note that in addition to our strong liquidity position, we have no near-term bond maturities and no maintenance covenants on our bond. We have today announced our quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share to be paid later in March, in line with guidance and supported by our robust closing liquidity position, and the cash generation potential arising from our earnings growth and completing growth investments. There is no change to our capital allocation policy.

請注意，除了我們強大的流動性部位之外，我們的債券沒有短期債券到期日，也沒有維護契約。今天，我們宣布將於3 月晚些時候支付每股0.10 美元的季度普通股息，這符合指導方針，並受到我們強勁的期末流動性頭寸以及盈利增長和完成增長投資所產生的現金產生潛力的支持。我們的資本配置政策沒有改變。

With that, I'll hand back to Ollie.

說完，我會把事情還給奧利。

Thanks, David. And before taking questions, I'll just recap on AMP's performance and key messages. So firstly, global shipments grew by 2% in the fourth quarter and by 5% for the full year. North America shipments growth was consistently strong and in line with expectations. Brazil shipment trends inflected positively during the second half and Europe shipment trends deteriorated during the second half, but retail scanner data tracked ahead of shipments and would support a more positive market outlook for 2024, in line with historic norms.

謝謝，大衛。在回答問題之前，我將回顧 AMP 的效能和關鍵資訊。首先，第四季全球出貨量成長了 2%，全年成長了 5%。北美出貨量成長持續強勁且符合預期。巴西出貨趨勢在下半年出現積極變化，歐洲出貨趨勢在下半年有所惡化，但零售掃描儀數據在出貨之前進行跟踪，並將支持 2024 年更加積極的市場前景，符合歷史標準。

In response to challenging market conditions, our team successfully optimized our cash generation through disciplined working capital deployment and inventory rebalancing. We ended the year with a strong liquidity position in excess of expectations. 2023 represented a transition year for AMP, where our team performed at a high level to balance the business. Our continued shipments growth, permanent capacity actions, focus on operational excellence and tight control of SG&A should all result in stronger adjusted EBITDA generation going forward.

為了應對充滿挑戰的市場條件，我們的團隊透過嚴格的營運資本部署和庫存重新平衡，成功優化了我們的現金產生。年終時，我們的流動性狀況強勁，超乎預期。 2023 年是 AMP 的過渡年，我們的團隊表現出色，以平衡業務。我們持續的出貨量成長、永久性的產能行動、對卓越營運的關注以及對銷售、管理及行政費用的嚴格控制，都應該會帶來更強勁的調整後 EBITDA 生成。

Our current view of the market leads us to project global shipment growth for AMP in 2024 approaching a mid-single-digit percentage. Full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA is projected to grow by 5% to 10% into a range of $630 million to $660 million. Our EBITDA guidance is supported by shipments growth with improved fixed cost absorption, accelerated by the completion of finished goods destocking and footprint rationalization.

我們目前對市場的看法使我們預計 2024 年 AMP 的全球出貨量成長將接近中個位數百分比。 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 預計將成長 5% 至 10%，達到 6.3 億至 6.6 億美元。我們的 EBITDA 指引得到了出貨量成長和固定成本吸收改善的支持，並因成品去庫存和足跡合理化的完成而加速。

In terms of guidance for the first quarter, adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be in line with prior year, with growth expected in the Americas but with Europe slightly lower as we remain cautious on production with volume recovery weighted towards the second half.

就第一季的指導而言，調整後的 EBITDA 預計將與去年同期持平，預計美洲將出現成長，但歐洲將略有下降，因為我們對生產保持謹慎態度，預計下半年銷售將恢復。

Having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to take any questions that you may have.

致詞結束後，我們現在將回答您可能提出的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) And we can take our first question from George Staphos with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們可以回答美國銀行的 George Staphos 提出的第一個問題。

This is actually (inaudible) on for George. We had a conflict this morning. So I guess, first off, given we're almost 2 months into the quarter here, can you just talk about how you're seeing volumes trending quarter-to-date at this point across the regions. And I guess, relatedly, in Europe, have you seen any kind of spillover effects related to the destocking you saw at the end of fourth quarter there?

這其實（聽不清楚）是針對喬治的。今天早上我們發生了衝突。因此，我想，首先，考慮到本季已經過去近 2 個月了，您能否談談目前各地區季度至今的銷售趨勢。我想，與此相關的是，在歐洲，您是否看到了與第四季末去庫存相關的任何溢出效應？

So yes. So I think the year has started well in all 3 regions, probably running slightly ahead of our expectations. There was definitely some transfer from December into January of European volumes. So we had a strong January, we'd probably say that 2/3 or even more than 2/3 of that looks like it is a crossover from December into January. And region by region, Europe running, as I say, ahead of what will be a guide for the year, and we're guiding to low singles. So we're running a bit ahead of that at the moment but we've got a tough March comp, which we recognize. And there's some funny pieces to the days in the quarter with Easter falling at a very early day.

所以是的。因此，我認為今年所有三個地區的開局都不錯，可能略高於我們的預期。從 12 月到 1 月，歐洲銷量肯定有所轉移。因此，我們度過了一個強勁的 1 月，我們可能會說其中 2/3 甚至超過 2/3 看起來像是從 12 月到 1 月的交叉。正如我所說，按地區劃分，歐洲領先今年的指南，我們正在引導低單打。因此，我們目前的表現有點超前，但我們已經意識到，三月的比賽很艱難。本季的一些日子裡有一些有趣的事情，復活節來得很早。

But I think positive on Europe with where that started. North America started strong in both January and February running again somewhat ahead of our expectations and the same for Brazil. The Brazil market grew 20% in January as a total market, which is obviously very encouraging. We weren't at that kind of level just because of our customer mix in January but February also looks good. So yes, we're feeling positive about the way the year has started, even though, obviously, it's still early.

但我對歐洲的發展持正面態度。北美地區一月和二月開局強勁，再次超出了我們的預期，巴西也是如此。巴西市場一月整體市場成長了20%，這顯然非常令人鼓舞。我們之所以沒有達到這樣的水平，只是因為一月份的客戶組合，但二月看起來也不錯。所以，是的，我們對今年開始的方式感到積極，儘管顯然現在還為時過早。

Okay. Understood. And as we think about the EBITDA guide for next year, can you just lay out some of the key buckets or puts and takes to help us bridge aside from volume? And also, any further color you can provide on your comment regarding those elevated energy costs as well?

好的。明白了。當我們考慮明年的 EBITDA 指南時，您能否列出一些關鍵的內容或投入和支出，以幫助我們擺脫數量的影響？另外，您對能源成本上升的評論還有什麼進一步的看法嗎？

Sure. So I think if you take the top end of our guide, and you'd be looking at somewhere north of $50 million positive on volume, and we'd be looking at a again, somewhat north of $20 million on cost improvements, fixed cost absorption, operation, excellence and SG&A. And then you've got a negative on price cost, call it, mid-teens to bring you back down to the top end of that guide. And just on that specific point, so yes, the comment about the elevated energy costs is just with some of our upstream suppliers.

當然。所以我認為，如果你看我們指南的頂端，你會看到銷量上超過 5000 萬美元的正值，而我們會再次看到成本改進、固定成本上超過 2000 萬美元的收入。吸收、運營、卓越和SG&A。然後你就會得到一個負的價格成本，稱之為十幾歲左右，讓你回到該指南的頂端。就這一點而言，是的，關於能源成本上漲的評論只是我們的一些上游供應商。

Obviously, we deferred a lot of that coming down to us over the last couple of years but we have had to take some of that into this year because obviously, a lot of energy is used upstream of us as well as in our own operations, and it's been a little bit more difficult to pass that into the market in Europe in the current environment where the market -- the beverage can market is a little bit looser. So that's why you've got that negative $15 million in there.

顯然，在過去的幾年裡，我們推遲了很多工作，但我們今年不得不將其中的一部分納入其中，因為顯然，我們的上游以及我們自己的運營使用了大量能源，在目前的市場環境下，將其傳遞到歐洲市場有點困難，因為飲料罐市場有點寬鬆。這就是為什麼你的帳戶裡有 1500 萬美元的負值。

At the bottom end of our guide, you'd probably just take a bit of all of those, maybe the volume would be more 35%, maybe a negative 20% on the price cost and a positive 15% or so on the op costs and other cost pieces. So that's the buckets that formed the range.

在我們指南的最後，您可能只需要其中的一些，也許數量會增加 35%，也許價格成本會減少 20%，營運成本會增加 15% 左右和其他成本零件。這就是形成範圍的桶子。

We will take our next question from Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

我們將回答花旗銀行安東尼·佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari) 提出的下一個問題。

This is actually Bryan Burgmeier sitting in for Anthony. I'm just trying to gauge the level of curtailments in 2024 that are implied by your guide. It seems like there's still going to be some capacity offline in Europe and Brazil. I'm not sure if that's accurate. And then assuming you reach your volume growth guidance for this year, does that imply essentially no curtailment as we get into 2025?

這實際上是布萊恩·伯格梅爾（Bryan Burgmeier）代替安東尼。我只是想評估一下您的指南中暗示的 2024 年削減水準。歐洲和巴西似乎仍有一些產能處於離線狀態。我不確定這是否準確。然後假設您達到了今年的銷售成長指導，這是否意味著進入 2025 年時基本上不會削減？

Look, I think we're still ramping some of our growth investments, and we still have efficiency gains as we pursue various operational excellence initiatives. So I think it's not as simple as that. I mean, if we take the year, we think we've got about [$4 billion] of curtailment across the network globally split relatively evenly between the regions. We still do have some in North America and that's giving us good runway on the growth that we've got in the business, particularly in North America but we also have high hopes for Brazil returning into some good level of growth. So we are still taking curtailments and we are obviously keeping under review more permanent network actions but at this point, nothing further to say on them.

看，我認為我們仍在加大一些成長投資，並且在追求各種卓越營運計劃的過程中，我們仍然獲得了效率提升。所以我認為事情沒有那麼簡單。我的意思是，如果我們以今年為例，我們認為全球網路的削減量約為 [40 億美元]，在各地區之間相對均勻地分配。我們在北美仍然有一些業務，這為我們的業務成長提供了良好的跑道，特別是在北美，但我們也對巴西恢復良好的成長水準抱有很高的希望。因此，我們仍在採取限制措施，並且顯然我們正在審查更持久的網路行動，但目前沒有更多可說的。

Got it. Got it. Last question for me and then I can turn it over. I was under the impression that the growth CapEx in 2024 was kind of related to projects initiated in '23, there's maybe a little bit of spillover but the prepared remarks maybe said otherwise, I'm just curious if you can disclose the projects that are included or maybe it's too soon to do that?

知道了。知道了。最後一個問題給我，然後我可以把它翻過來。我的印像是 2024 年的成長資本支出與 23 年啟動的項目有關，可能有一點溢出效應，但準備好的評論可能另有說法，我只是好奇您是否可以披露正在實施的項目包括在內，或者也許現在這樣做還為時過早？

Actually, I think the 2024 growth CapEx is projects that were initiated in '23. So I think we talked about half of it being about flexibility enhancements to our North American network, together with the changes we needed to make to address the Whitehouse closure. And then the other half, we've got some carryover projects from the growth investment that just some of the cash out is in this year. So most of that is '23. There are some '24 projects that will occur during the second half of the year. Again, focused mainly on small amounts of flexibility improvement in the European network. So yes, that's the bulk of the $100 million.

實際上，我認為 2024 年成長資本支出是 23 年啟動的項目。因此，我認為我們討論的一半內容是關於增強北美網路的靈活性，以及​​我們為解決白宮關閉問題而需要做出的改變。然後另一半，我們從成長投資中得到了一些結轉項目，今年只有部分現金支出。所以大部分是'23。有一些「24」項目將在今年下半年進行。同樣，主要關注歐洲網路的少量靈活性改進。是的，這就是 1 億美元中的大部分。

And our next question will come from Curt Woodworth with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的科特·伍德沃斯。

Yes. I was wondering if you could help bridge a little bit on free cash flow delta this year. You talked about working capital could be a use. But then can you also give us some guidance on lease expense, cash interest and some other line items and provide rough bridge on free cash flow.

是的。我想知道今年你是否可以幫助彌補一點自由現金流增量。您談到營運資金可能是一種用途。但您能否也給我們一些有關租賃費用、現金利息和其他一些項目的指導，並提供自由現金流的粗略橋樑。

David?

大衛？

Yes. Curt, yes, happy to help. So we think we'll have a small working capital inflow this year as we outlined lease repayments of the order of $90 million, maintenance CapEx, a nonbusiness growth investment CapEx of the order of $120 million. We will have some operating exceptionals on the closure of our Whitehouse and Weissenthurm facilities. So we will have $30 million to $40 million there. We'll have cash interest (inaudible) would my estimate for the year for that one and cash tax, perhaps of the order of $35 million.

是的。簡短，是的，很樂意提供協助。因此，我們認為今年我們將有少量的營運資金流入，因為我們概述了約 9,000 萬美元的租賃償還、維護資本支出、約 1.2 億美元的非業務成長投資資本支出。關閉白宮和魏森圖姆工廠後，我們將出現一些營運例外。因此我們將有 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元。根據我對這一年的估計，我們將有現金利息（聽不清楚）和現金稅，也許約 3500 萬美元。

Okay. And then, I guess, in terms of the volume outlook in the Americas. Can you get a little bit more granular on maybe the assumptions underpinning that? Like how much of that would be functional around market share wins or just kind of contractual commitments you have? I think you said market growth would be about 2%. And then with respect to Europe, are there any similar levels of growth there in terms of taking share or leveraging new plant network?

好的。然後，我想，就美洲的銷售前景而言。您能否更詳細地了解支撐這一點的假設？例如，其中有多少是圍繞著贏得市場份額或只是您所擁有的合約承諾發揮作用的？我想你說過市場成長率約 2%。那麼，就歐洲而言，在佔有份額或利用新工廠網路方面是否有類似的成長水準？

Sure. Yes. So look, I think with North America, we guided to a mid- to high single-digit percentage. And you probably would take the mid as being the contractual gains and the rest being the market. So we see the market in the low single digits. And I think we've commented before that we have a couple of contractual gains going into 2024. So that's broadly how those 2 would flip down. And then I think on Europe, it's market growth in our mind. There was a reasonable amount of ups and downs in our customer base coming into 2024 but the growth that we're seeing in '24 is larger from the market, which we're seeing at about a 2% level, as you said.

當然。是的。因此，我認為在北美，我們的指導目標是中高個位數百分比。你可能會認為中間是合約收益，其餘的是市場。所以我們看到市場處於低個位數。我認為我們之前曾評論過，到 2024 年我們將獲得一些合約收益。因此，這大致就是這兩個收益下降的方式。然後我認為在歐洲，我們心目中的市場成長。到 2024 年，我們的客戶群會出現合理的起伏，但我們在 2024 年看到的成長來自市場，我們看到的成長約為 2%，正如您所說。

And we will take our next question from Richard Phelan with Deutsche Bank.

我們將回答德意志銀行理查費蘭的下一個問題。

Given the healthy liquidity position at year-end and the planned reduction in CapEx, would the business consider using its balance sheet in any way to support the liquidity demands that its majority owner raising a dividend, the special dividend, redemption of the preferred?

鑑於年底健康的流動性狀況以及計劃削減資本支出，企業是否會考慮以任何方式利用其資產負債表來支持其大股東提高股息、特別股息、優先股贖回的流動性需求？

Do you want to take that one? I think we've been clear, our capital allocation policy is unchanged. So we regard the current level of dividend is very sustainable and the liquidity, as you say, at year-end absolutely supports that. Sustainable dividend at current level is our first priority and the leverage reduction is our second priority.

你想拿走那個嗎？我想我們已經很清楚了，我們的資本配置政策沒有改變。因此，我們認為目前的股息水準是非常可持續的，正如你所說，年底的流動性絕對支持這一點。目前水準的可持續股利是我們的首要任務，降低槓桿是我們的第二任務。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our next question from Roger Spitz with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們將接受美國銀行的 Roger Spitz 提出的下一個問題。

I just wanted to clarify the 2024 cash interest. I thought I heard $100 million but I think I might have misheard.

我只是想澄清一下2024年的現金利息。我以為我聽到的是 1 億美元，但我想我可能聽錯了。

I think, yes, $200 million.

我想，是的，2 億美元。

Yes. Okay. Okay. Yes, that makes more sense. Okay. And so when you do that, you get -- adding all the things you did, gave the midpoint of the range, small working capital inflow, it's kind of like a free cash flow before dividends and preferred $35 million plus or minus what have you. Is that kind of the way to think about it, putting all those pieces together that you put together?

是的。好的。好的。是的，這更有意義。好的。因此，當你這樣做時，你會得到- 添加你所做的所有事情，給出範圍的中點，少量的營運資金流入，這有點像股息前的自由現金流和優先股3500 萬美元加上或減去你有什麼。將所有這些碎片放在一起，是否就是這種思考方式？

I get to a higher number than that.

我得到的數字比這個更高。

Higher number. Okay. All right.

更高的數字。好的。好的。

And we will take our last question from Ning Yang with Jupiter Asset Management.

我們將回答木星資產管理公司楊寧提出的最後一個問題。

Could I just clarify the exceptional cost that you guided earlier in terms of the start-up costs, the restructuring costs. How much was it like adding all together in terms of those exceptional items below EBITDA, and just want to confirming that the CapEx -- the total CapEx guidance, is it roughly [$230 million] next year?

我能否澄清一下您之前指導的啟動成本和重組成本方面的特殊成本。將所有低於 EBITDA 的特殊項目加在一起有多大感覺，只是想確認明年的資本支出（總資本支出指引）是否約為 [2.3 億美元]？

Yes. So total CapEx cash flow is of that order, yes. In terms of exceptionals, you have operating exceptionals, which sit before free cash flow. So the cash element of those may be of the order of $35 million around our restructuring activity. You will then have some start-up costs that sit below the free cash flow line they may be of the order of $25 million this year but they're coming down quite substantially, obviously, from when we were in the middle of our growth investment program.

是的。所以總資本支出現金流量就是這個順序，是的。就例外情況而言，您有營運例外情況，它位於自由現金流之前。因此，圍繞著我們的重組活動，這些現金部分可能約為 3500 萬美元。 You will then have some start-up costs that sit below the free cash flow line they may be of the order of $25 million this year but they're coming down quite substantially, obviously, from when we were in the middle of our growth investment程式.

I guess my last question is on your -- in terms of the cash balance that you have, given that you have operators in Brazil, et cetera, et cetera. So where do you see that your business needs in terms of a minimum cash balance to operate?

我想我的最後一個問題是關於您的問題——就您擁有的現金餘額而言，考慮到您在巴西等地擁有運營商。那麼，您認為您的企業營運所需的最低現金餘額在哪裡？

Minimum cash balance, so We like to have a float of about $100 million, would be our absolute minimum. But yes, clearly, we're a long way above that at this stage.

最低現金餘額，因此我們希望擁有約 1 億美元的流動資金，這將是我們的絕對最低限度。但是，是的，顯然，我們現階段遠遠超出了這個目標。

It appears there are no further questions at this time. Mr. Graham, I will turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.

目前似乎沒有其他問題了。格雷厄姆先生，我將把會議轉回給您，請您發表補充或結束語。

Thanks, operator. So we had a better-than-expected Q4 performance in the Americas, which was counteracted by some customer destocking in Europe. We're very confident in a rebound in European volumes in what has historically been our most stable growth market and where retail scanner trends support a more positive outlook.

謝謝，接線生。因此，我們在美洲的第四季業績優於預期，但歐洲一些客戶的庫存削減抵消了這一影響。我們對歐洲銷售的反彈非常有信心，歐洲歷來是我們成長最穩定的市場，零售掃描器趨勢支持更積極的前景。

Furthermore, as mentioned on the call, our year-to-date volume trends have been positive across each of our markets. And our actions on our footprint in addition to anticipated volume growth backed by contracted new volumes in North America, should result in an improvement in adjusted EBITDA generation in 2024 and beyond.

此外，正如電話會議中所提到的，今年迄今為止，我們每個市場的銷售趨勢都是正面的。除了北美新合約銷售支援的預期銷售成長之外，我們對足跡採取的行動應該會導致 2024 年及以後調整後 EBITDA 產生的改善。

And we look forward to talking to you all again at our quarter 1 results. Thank you.

我們期待再次與大家討論我們的第一季業績。謝謝。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。