Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. First Quarter 2023 Results Call. Today's conference is being recorded.

歡迎來到 Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. 2023 年第一季度業績電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stephen Lyons, Ardagh Metal Packaging Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

此時，我想將會議轉交給 Ardagh Metal Packaging 投資者關係部的 Stephen Lyons 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's Earnings Release for the First Quarter. We have also added an earnings presentation on to our investor website for your reference.

謝謝接線員，歡迎大家。感謝您今天參加 Ardagh Metal Packaging 的 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議，該電話會議是在 AMP 第一季度收益發布之前發布的。我們還在我們的投資者網站上添加了收益演示，供您參考。

I'm joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer; and David Bourne, AMP's Chief Financial Officer.

今天，AMP 的首席執行官奧利弗·格雷厄姆 (Oliver Graham) 加入了我的行列；和 AMP 的首席財務官 David Bourne。

Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. AMP's earnings release and related materials for the first quarter can be found on AMP's website at www.ardaghmetalpackaging.com.

在回答您的問題之前，我們將首先就 AMP 的表現和前景提供一些介紹性評論。 AMP 第一季度的收益發布和相關材料可在 AMP 網站 www.ardaghmetalpackaging.com 上找到。

Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the detail of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release.

今天的評論將包括某些前瞻性陳述，並包括使用非 IFRS 財務措施。實際結果可能與此類陳述存在重大差異。請在 AMP 的收益發布中查看 AMP 的前瞻性聲明免責聲明和非 IFRS 財務措施與 IFRS 財務措施的調節的詳細信息。

I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

我現在將把電話轉給奧利弗格雷厄姆。

Thanks, Stephen. We delivered a solid performance in the first quarter and met our market guidance. Due to disciplined cost stewardship, actions to improve manufacturing efficiency and stronger input cost recovery. In light of our resilient start to the year, we are reaffirming our full year guidance.

謝謝，斯蒂芬。我們在第一季度取得了穩健的業績，達到了我們的市場指引。由於嚴格的成本管理、提高製造效率的行動和更強的投入成本回收。鑑於我們今年開局強勁，我們重申了全年的指導方針。

We delivered global shipment growth of 3%, including 5% growth in North America and 2% in Europe, and adjusted EBITDA of $130 million, in line with our guidance. Our adjusted EBITDA result represented an 8% decline on a constant currency basis versus the prior year quarter. The contribution from shipment growth was more than offset by higher operating costs.

我們實現了 3% 的全球出貨量增長，其中北美增長 5%，歐洲增長 2%，調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.3 億美元，符合我們的指引。我們調整後的 EBITDA 結果與上一季度相比在固定匯率基礎上下降了 8%。出貨量增長的貢獻被更高的運營成本所抵消。

Looking into Q2 and beyond, we see inflation recovery in Europe that will drop through its adjusted EBITDA as we set out in our forecast.

展望第二季度及以後，我們認為歐洲的通脹復甦將通過我們預測中的調整後 EBITDA 下降。

Global demand remains restrained by sustained retail price inflation, but we are encouraged by the early signs of a pickup in promotional activity in North America, especially in nonalcoholic beverages and a broader moderating outlook for consumer pricing supported by an easing of input cost inflation.

全球需求仍然受到持續的零售價格通脹的抑制，但我們對北美促銷活動回升的早期跡象感到鼓舞，尤其是在非酒精飲料方面，以及在投入成本通脹放緩的支持下消費者定價的更廣泛放緩前景。

Input cost recovery in Europe through the annual reset in our PPI mechanisms and a more effective pass-through of direct energy costs. And good volume growth in North America drove an adjusted EBITDA performance in both regions that was ahead of expectation and offset the softer performance in Brazil, where industry demand is slowly recovering.

通過我們 PPI 機制的年度重置和更有效的直接能源成本轉嫁，在歐洲回收投入成本。北美銷量的良好增長推動了兩個地區調整後的 EBITDA 業績超出預期，並抵消了行業需求正在緩慢復甦的巴西的疲軟表現。

We continue to manage our capacity in a disciplined manner through curtailment actions that moderate our footprint ahead of growth in demand and that position the business for a period of investment-free growth. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to accelerate through the year due to inflation recovery and volume improvement. Our expectation for industry growth in 2023 supported by positive secular tailwinds is for a low single-digit percentage growth in the Americas and a low- to mid-single-digit percentage growth in Europe.

我們繼續通過削減行動以有紀律的方式管理我們的產能，這些行動在需求增長之前調節我們的足跡，並使業務處於無投資增長時期。由於通脹復甦和銷量改善，預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在今年加速增長。我們對 2023 年在積極的長期順風支持下的行業增長的預期是，美洲將實現低個位數百分比增長，歐洲將實現中低個位數百分比增長。

We continue to project significantly increased adjusted EBITDA and positive adjusted free cash flow in 2023 with further improvement into next year. And we are committed to our quarterly $0.10 dividend.

我們繼續預計 2023 年調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的自由現金流將顯著增加，並在明年進一步改善。我們承諾每季度派發 0.10 美元的股息。

Turning to our sustainability agenda. We were awarded a first-time leadership A rating from CDP on supplier engagement, which followed the first time A- rating for water management and a B rating for climate change disclosed in our last update. We are proud to have committed to the International Aluminium Institute's, Aluminium Forward 2030 initiative, bringing together global leaders across the aluminium supply chain, with the aim to accelerate progress towards net zero emissions.

轉向我們的可持續發展議程。我們在供應商參與方面獲得了 CDP 的首次領導 A 評級，這是在我們上次更新中披露的首次水管理 A 評級和氣候變化 B 評級之後。我們很自豪能夠參與國際鋁業協會的 Aluminium Forward 2030 倡議，匯集整個鋁供應鏈的全球領導者，以加快實現淨零排放的進程。

As part of the Mission Possible Partnership, we have endorsed the industry back net zero transition strategy, and we continue to progress our sustainability targets and are delighted to have just signed a PPA agreement with [Solo] electricity in Germany, which will provide approximately 20% of our electricity needs.

作為 Mission Possible Partnership 的一部分，我們已經批准了行業後淨零轉型戰略，我們將繼續推進我們的可持續發展目標，並且很高興剛剛與德國的 [Solo] 電力公司簽署了 PPA 協議，該協議將提供大約 20我們電力需求的百分比。

Turning our attention to AMP's first quarter results. We recorded revenue of $1.1 billion, which represented a growth of 2% on a constant currency basis, predominantly reflecting higher volumes. Adjusted EBITDA of $130 million was down 8% on the prior year on a constant currency basis. The contribution from higher volumes and stronger input cost recovery was offset by the underabsorption of higher operating costs and the expected impact relating to the timing of recognition of inflation recovery in EBITDA.

將注意力轉向 AMP 第一季度的業績。我們錄得 11 億美元的收入，按固定匯率計算增長 2%，主要反映了銷量的增加。按固定匯率計算，調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.3 億美元，比上年下降 8%。更高的銷量和更強的投入成本回收所帶來的貢獻被更高的運營成本吸收不足以及與在 EBITDA 中確認通貨膨脹復甦的時間相關的預期影響所抵消。

Total beverage can shipments in the quarter were 3% higher than the prior year, with 5% growth in North America and 2% growth in Europe, offsetting a 1% decline in Brazil.

本季度飲料罐總出貨量比去年同期增長 3%，其中北美增長 5%，歐洲增長 2%，抵消了巴西 1% 的下滑。

Looking at AMP's results by segment and at constant exchange rates. Revenue in the Americas in the first quarter increased by 1% to $645 million, mainly due to higher volumes, partly offset by the pass-through lower metal and freight costs. In North America, shipments grew by 5% for the quarter. Demand remains restrained by sustained higher retail pricing, but with greater resilience experience in nonalcoholic categories, which represent the majority of our North American business.

按細分市場和固定匯率查看 AMP 的業績。第一季度美洲的收入增長 1% 至 6.45 億美元，這主要是由於銷量增加，部分被轉嫁的較低金屬和運費所抵消。在北美，本季度出貨量增長了 5%。需求仍然受到持續較高的零售價格的限制，但在非酒精類產品中具有更大的彈性經驗，這代表了我們北美業務的大部分。

The hard seltzer category accounted for 8% of North America shipments in the quarter, with the segment remaining under pressure. The impact to our business is offset by growth across other categories, including carbonated soft drinks, energy and wellness and in spirit-based ready-to-drinks.

硬蘇打水類別佔本季度北美出貨量的 8%，該細分市場仍面臨壓力。對我們業務的影響被其他類別的增長所抵消，包括碳酸軟飲料、能量和健康以及以烈酒為基礎的即飲飲料。

We have completed our planned capacity additions in North America with the third line in Huron, Ohio now ramping up along with the other 2 lines added in the final quarter of last year. Our investments in Huron, Ohio, Winston-Salem in North Carolina and Olive Branch, Mississippi position us favorably for future growth.

我們已經完成了我們在北美的計劃產能增加，俄亥俄州休倫的第三條生產線現在與去年最後一個季度增加的其他兩條生產線一起增加。我們在俄亥俄州休倫、北卡羅來納州溫斯頓-塞勒姆和密西西比州奧利夫布蘭奇的投資使我們有利於未來的增長。

We're encouraged by the early signs of an improvement in demand with a small increase in promotional activity, which we expect to strengthen over the coming months through the peak summer season. We will show continued discipline with our capacity planning in the interim.

我們對需求改善的早期跡象感到鼓舞，促銷活動略有增加，我們預計在接下來的幾個月到夏季旺季期間，這種情況將會加強。在此期間，我們將通過我們的容量規劃表現出持續的紀律。

In Brazil, first quarter shipments declined modestly, underperforming the high single-digit growth in the market due to customer mix effects as well as some customer destocking. The market recorded a high single-digit growth rate against a weak 2022 comparator and was softer than anticipated as adverse weather and more challenging macroeconomic backdrop pressured consumption.

在巴西，由於客戶組合效應以及一些客戶去庫存，第一季度出貨量溫和下降，表現不及市場的高個位數增長。相對於疲軟的 2022 年，市場錄得高個位數增長率，並且由於惡劣天氣和更具挑戰性的宏觀經濟背景給消費帶來壓力，市場表現低於預期。

We are forecasting volumes to grow at a high single-digit percentage in 2023 in Brazil, which is underpinned by the recent start-up of new capacity in Alagoinhas, customer mix and the market recovery strengthening into the second half of the year supported by an easing of customers' input cost pressures.

我們預測 2023 年巴西的銷量將以高個位數的百分比增長，這得益於最近阿拉戈伊尼亞斯新產能的啟動、客戶組合以及下半年市場復甦的加強，這得益於緩解客戶投入成本壓力。

One of our customers in Brazil entered a judicial reorganization process in the period. Our exposure to the customer was at a historic low position. And due to our security coverage, we do not foresee a material credit risk at this point in time. We remain in close dialogue with the customer who continues to trade through the process. We are very well diversified in our customer base in Brazil, and we do not expect that the reorganization process will negatively impact on overall beer consumption in the country.

我們的一位巴西客戶在此期間進入了司法重組程序。我們對客戶的敞口處於歷史低位。由於我們的安全保障，我們目前預計不會出現重大信用風險。我們與繼續在整個過程中進行交易的客戶保持密切對話。我們在巴西的客戶群非常多元化，我們預計重組過程不會對該國的整體啤酒消費產生負面影響。

Adjusted EBITDA in the Americas decreased by 9% to $81 million in the first quarter. The contribution from volume mix was more than offset by an expected fixed cost absorption drag and unfavorable input cost recovery relative to some overrecovery in the prior year period. Overall, the decline in the year reflected softer conditions in the Brazil market, with our performance in North America ahead of the prior year and our expectations due to good volume growth and improved manufacturing efficiency.

第一季度美洲調整後的 EBITDA 下降 9% 至 8100 萬美元。銷量組合的貢獻被預期的固定成本吸收拖累和相對於去年同期的一些過度恢復不利的投入成本恢復所抵消。總體而言，今年的下滑反映了巴西市場的疲軟狀況，我們在北美的表現優於上年，以及我們對銷量增長和製造效率提高的預期。

In 2023, we continue to expect strong shipment growth in the Americas in the order of high single-digit percentage supported by improving market conditions and the ramp-up of our investments. Fixed cost under absorption net of our mitigating curtailment actions remains a headwind to our performance. In line with our previous guidance, we anticipate an uplift in EBITDA generation into the second half of the year as demand begins to normalize in both markets.

到 2023 年，我們繼續預計在市場狀況改善和投資增加的支持下，美洲的出貨量將以高個位數的百分比增長。我們緩解削減行動的吸收淨固定成本仍然是我們業績的不利因素。根據我們之前的指引，隨著兩個市場的需求開始正常化，我們預計 EBITDA 的產生將在下半年有所提升。

In Europe, first quarter revenue increased by 3% on a constant currency basis to $486 million compared with the same period in 2022, mainly due to more favorable input cost recovery. Shipments for the quarter grew by 2% on the prior year. Consumer demand remained resilient in the quarter led by carbonated soft drinks. The beer market saw an overall softer performance in the off-trade, but with notable exceptions in the economy segment of both brands and own label.

在歐洲，與 2022 年同期相比，第一季度收入按固定匯率計算增長 3% 至 4.86 億美元，這主要是由於更有利的投入成本回收。本季度的出貨量比去年同期增長了 2%。在碳酸軟飲料的帶動下，消費者需求在本季度保持彈性。啤酒市場的場外銷售整體表現疲軟，但品牌和自有品牌的經濟領域存在明顯的例外。

First quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe fell by 8% on a constant currency basis to $49 million as the contribution from higher shipments and input cost recovery was offset by higher overhead costs and the known impact from the timing of inflation recovery recognition in EBITDA. Performance was, however, ahead of expectations, reflecting our overall strong input cost recovery.

歐洲第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 按固定匯率計算下降 8% 至 4900 萬美元，原因是更高的出貨量和投入成本回收的貢獻被更高的間接費用和 EBITDA 中通貨膨脹恢復確認時間的已知影響所抵消。然而，業績超出預期，反映出我們總體上強勁的投入成本回收。

For 2023, we continue to expect shipment growth in the order of a low single-digit percentage with a more significant increase in adjusted EBITDA arising as the year progresses. The European energy market continues to improve its resilience supported by public policy actions. We are fully hedged for the current year and have significantly progressed our energy purchases for future years as prices have fallen.

對於 2023 年，我們繼續預計出貨量將以較低的個位數百分比增長，隨著時間的推移，調整後的 EBITDA 將出現更顯著的增長。在公共政策行動的支持下，歐洲能源市場繼續提高其彈性。我們對本年度進行了全面對沖，並在價格下跌的情況下顯著推進了未來幾年的能源採購。

In the second quarter, we will complete the addition of further capacity in our La Ciotat plant in Southern France, and our intention remains to close one of the legacy steel lines in (inaudible), Germany during the year. This concludes the brownfield investments under our initial growth investment program.

在第二季度，我們將在法國南部的 La Ciotat 工廠完成進一步產能的增加，我們的意圖仍然是在年內關閉德國（聽不清）的一條遺留鋼鐵生產線。我們的初始增長投資計劃下的棕地投資到此結束。

I'll now briefly hand over to David to talk through our financial position before finishing with some concluding remarks.

在結束一些總結性發言之前，我現在將簡要地交給大衛談談我們的財務狀況。

Thanks, Ollie, and hello, everyone. Moving now to our financial position. We ended the quarter with a liquidity position of approximately $0.5 billion. Cash outflow in the period beat our expectation but reflected the usual seasonality in working capital with a working capital outflow in the quarter of $346 million. We will continue to focus on working capital efficiencies, and our guidance for a full year working capital benefit of approximately $100 million remains unchanged.

謝謝，奧利，大家好。現在轉到我們的財務狀況。本季度結束時，我們的流動性頭寸約為 5 億美元。該期間的現金流出超出了我們的預期，但反映了營運資金通常的季節性，本季度營運資金流出 3.46 億美元。我們將繼續關注營運資金效率，我們對全年營運資金收益約為 1 億美元的指導意見保持不變。

In the quarter, AMP incurred additional growth CapEx of $90 million and maintenance CapEx of $36 million. As previously indicated, our revised growth investment plans are well advanced, and cash outflows comprised the finishing of projects already underway.

本季度，AMP 產生了 9000 萬美元的額外增長資本支出和 3600 萬美元的維護資本支出。如前所述，我們修訂後的增長投資計劃進展順利，現金流出包括已在進行的項目的完成。

Our expectation of the current year is unchanged, which includes growth investment of just under $400 million with a cash flow element under $300 million. Net leverage at the end of the quarter, up 5.8x LTM adjusted EBITDA, was modestly better than our expectation and was despite a strengthening in the euro-dollar rate into the end of the quarter. As a reminder, currency effects are broadly neutral from a leverage perspective in the medium term.

我們對今年的預期保持不變，其中包括不到 4 億美元的增長投資和不到 3 億美元的現金流。本季度末的淨槓桿率是 LTM 調整後 EBITDA 的 5.8 倍，略好於我們的預期，儘管歐元兌美元匯率在本季度末走強。提醒一下，從中期的槓桿角度來看，貨幣效應總體上是中性的。

Our bonds have been issued on fixed rate terms and no mature before 2027. As mentioned our great investment plan is well advanced, which strongly supports earnings and cash flow growth, lowering net leverage back to 2022 levels by the end of the year and with a meaningful reduction anticipated in 2024.

我們的債券以固定利率發行，2027 年之前不會到期。如前所述，我們的偉大投資計劃進展順利，這有力地支持了收益和現金流的增長，到年底將淨槓桿率降至 2022 年的水平，並且預計 2024 年將出現有意義的減少。

We have today announced our quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share to be paid later in June, in line with our guidance and supported by our improving cash generation outlook. Our capital allocation strategy will continue to prioritize dividend sustainability and deleveraging in the near and medium term.

我們今天宣布將在 6 月晚些時候支付每股 0.10 美元的季度普通股息，這符合我們的指導方針並得到我們不斷改善的現金產生前景的支持。我們的資本配置策略將繼續優先考慮近期和中期的股息可持續性和去槓桿化。

With that, I'll hand back to Ollie.

有了這個，我會交還給奧利。

Thanks, David. So before moving to take your questions, I'd just like to recap on AMP's performance and key messages.

謝謝，大衛。因此，在開始回答您的問題之前，我想回顧一下 AMP 的表現和關鍵信息。

Our global shipments grew by 3% led by growth of 5% in North America and with a solid performance of 2% in Europe. Both businesses performed ahead of our expectations, offsetting a softer performance in Brazil and supporting the delivery of our adjusted EBITDA guidance.

我們的全球出貨量增長了 3%，北美增長了 5%，歐洲增長了 2%。這兩項業務的表現都超出了我們的預期，抵消了巴西的疲軟表現並支持我們調整後的 EBITDA 指導的交付。

We're encouraged by the early signs of a return to promotional activity and the easing of customer input cost inflation, which supports our expectations of improved H2 volumes. We will continue to closely monitor demand conditions and balance our capacity in a disciplined manner.

我們對促銷活動恢復的早期跡象和客戶投入成本通脹的緩和感到鼓舞，這支持了我們對下半年銷量增加的預期。我們將繼續密切監測需求狀況，並以有紀律的方式平衡我們的產能。

Our actions taken on cost recovery and our well-advanced investment program will drive adjusted EBITDA growth and significantly improve adjusted free cash flow generation in 2023 and beyond. This, in turn, supports our dividend policy and balance sheet deleveraging.

我們在成本回收方面採取的行動和我們完善的投資計劃將推動調整後的 EBITDA 增長，並在 2023 年及以後顯著改善調整後的自由現金流產生。這反過來又支持我們的股息政策和資產負債表去槓桿化。

We reaffirm our guidance for 2023, which assumes global shipment growth of a mid- to high single-digit percentage and adjusted EBITDA growth in the order of 10% weighted to the second half due to more favorable prior year comparisons and improving volumes.

我們重申我們對 2023 年的指導，該指導假設全球出貨量增長率為中高個位數百分比，並且由於前一年比較有利和銷量增加，調整後的 EBITDA 增長率約為下半年的 10%。

In terms of guidance for the second quarter, adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be in the order of $170 million, which compares with the prior year adjusted EBITDA of $180 million on a constant currency basis.

就第二季度的指引而言，調整後的 EBITDA 預計約為 1.7 億美元，而按固定匯率計算，上一年調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.8 億美元。

Having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to take any questions that you may have.

在做了這些開場白之後，我們現在開始回答您可能提出的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from Anthony Pettinari from Citi.

（操作員說明）我們將從花旗銀行的 Anthony Pettinari 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

Oliver, the full year guidance, I think, implies a pretty strong second half earnings inflection, and I'm just wondering if you can speak to that. And is that driven primarily by kind of volume recovery or maybe cost? And then if there's any sort of trigger date for contract resets for PPI or any kind of mechanism like that, that we should keep in mind as we kind of think about the rest of the year?

奧利弗，我認為全年指導意味著下半年收益將出現相當強勁的變化，我只是想知道你是否可以談談。這主要是由某種體積恢復或成本驅動的嗎？然後，如果有任何類型的 PPI 合同重置觸發日期或任何類型的機制，我們應該在考慮今年剩餘時間時牢記這一點？

Sure. Yes. Anthony. So look, I think there's a couple of things in the full year guide. There is some acceleration in volume received in our guidance in the second half, and we can talk more about the markets and why we've got that assumed. But then there is also an acceleration of our inflation recovery. I referred to it in the remarks, but there's some drag in Q1 from the timing of the recognition of those PPI mechanisms into EBITDA, and that drag has gone after Q1. So we also get some enhanced inflation recovery in the subsequent quarters.

當然。是的。安東尼。所以看，我認為全年指南中有幾件事。下半年我們的指導中收到的交易量有所加速，我們可以更多地談論市場以及我們做出這種假設的原因。但隨後我們的通脹復甦也在加速。我在評論中提到了它，但從將這些 PPI 機制識別為 EBITDA 的時間來看，第一季度存在一些拖累，而且這種拖累在第一季度之後就消失了。因此，我們在隨後的幾個季度也會看到一些增強的通脹復甦。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then -- and I guess you'll talk about the regional trends maybe in some of the other questions. But just switching to the dividend. I think you referenced the sustainability of the dividend. Just wondering if you could kind of walk us through kind of the puts and takes on cash and maybe cash step-up next year and the sustainability of the dividend trading at a double-digit yield currently.

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後——我想你可能會在其他一些問題中談論區域趨勢。但只是轉向股息。我認為你提到了股息的可持續性。只是想知道您是否可以帶我們了解一下看跌期權並接受現金，也許明年現金會增加，以及目前以兩位數收益率進行的股息交易的可持續性。

Yes. I'll give an overview, and then I'll let David cover anything further. But obviously, the main thing that's going on for our business at the moment is that the capital expenditure we have this year is just the wrap-up of the projects that we've essentially more or less completely finished. So we have some payments this year. So the cash CapEx, I think of the order of $300 million, some leasing activity on top of that. And therefore, there's a very meaningful step-down into 2024. We haven't guided on it, but I think that some of the market numbers we've seen are in the right order. So that big step-down is what then allows us to grow, as we say, investment-free into our capacity. Then that gets us into a very sustainable position for funding the dividend.

是的。我將給出一個概述，然後讓大衛進一步介紹。但顯然，目前我們業務的主要事情是我們今年的資本支出只是我們基本上或多或少完全完成的項目的總結。所以我們今年有一些付款。所以現金資本支出，我想到了 3 億美元的訂單，最重要的是一些租賃活動。因此，到 2024 年會有一個非常有意義的下降。我們沒有對此進行指導，但我認為我們看到的一些市場數據的順序是正確的。因此，正如我們所說，這種大幅下降讓我們能夠在無投資的情況下發展我們的能力。然後，這使我們在為股息提供資金方面處於非常可持續的地位。

I don't know, David, if you want to add anything to that.

大衛，我不知道你是否想添加任何內容。

I think that's right. I think it will be adjusted free cash flow positive for this year. You can see some EBITDA growth into next year and then the BGI drop. I'd say you put those 3 components together, you're at or very close to covering the dividend mix.

我認為這是對的。我認為今年調整後的自由現金流為正。你可以看到明年的 EBITDA 有所增長，然後 BGI 下降。我會說你將這三個部分放在一起，你已經或非常接近覆蓋股息組合。

We will take -- our next question is from George Staphos from Bank of America.

我們將接受 - 我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 George Staphos。

Maybe just because Anthony set it up, I'll cover the dividend. I was going to hit it later. But taking it in a different perspective, right, the market is putting a yield on the dividend of around 11%, which suggests investors put a high risk factor on that dividend. So if you agree with that premise, and the numbers are the numbers. Why have a dividend that, that's -- that high and at that level relative to your equity and relative to your cash flow now?

也許只是因為安東尼設立的，我會支付股息。我打算稍後再打它。但從不同的角度來看，市場對股息的收益率約為 11%，這表明投資者對該股息的風險因素很高。所以如果你同意這個前提，數字就是數字。為什麼要有股息，那就是 - 相對於你的股權和現金流量而言，那麼高並且處於那個水平？

Look, I think we've signaled along that the dividend is demonstrating the cash-generative nature of the business. And as we pivot from a strong investment period into a period where we're running to fill the capacity and drive cash generation, we think the dividend becomes completely sustainable and is a very good fit for our proposition. So I think we're committed to it. We see as we drop off the capital expenditure into the back half of this year and into next year that, that it fits very well with our proposition.

看，我認為我們已經發出信號，表明股息正在證明該業務的現金生成性質。隨著我們從強勁的投資時期轉向我們正在努力填補產能和推動現金產生的時期，我們認為股息變得完全可持續並且非常適合我們的主張。所以我認為我們致力於此。我們看到，當我們將資本支出減少到今年下半年和明年時，它非常符合我們的主張。

Yes. And Ollie, I'll take that at surface level, and that's great. I just -- the point I'd make is, is the market is putting a very high return on that. So in theory, you might get a lower cost on other cash utilization relative to the dividend where the market is putting a 11% yield on. But in any event, perhaps we want to solve that on this call, but that's the only thing I'd point out there.

是的。奧利，我會從表面上看，這很好。我只是——我要說的是，市場對此給予了很高的回報。因此，從理論上講，相對於市場收益率為 11% 的股息，您可能會在其他現金利用方面獲得更低的成本。但無論如何，也許我們想在這次電話會議上解決這個問題，但這是我唯一要指出的事情。

On the promotional activity, what gives you the confidence that -- and you mentioned, I think, in nonalcoholic that you're starting to see some activity and some improvement, but why should we expect that, that's going to continue going forward? Whatever your customers told you specifically in terms of why you think promotional activity is going to pick up, particularly in nonalc, over the rest of the year?

在促銷活動中，是什麼讓你有信心——你提到過，我認為，在非酒精飲料中，你開始看到一些活動和一些改善，但我們為什麼要期待它會繼續向前發展？無論您的客戶具體告訴您為什麼您認為促銷活動會在今年餘下時間增加，尤其是在 nonalc 方面？

No, absolutely. So look, I think on this promotional question, there's a couple of fundamentals that we should touch on, and then we should talk about the timing of it returning. But the fundamentals are that these are very promotional categories. They're very elastic categories, and demand does expand with promotional and with price. So it's always -- they've always been very promotional, and there's no reason, I think, to believe that, that won't reassert itself at some point. We've seen a very unusual period where price is rising and volumes are dropping less than historically, but we're clearly reaching the limits of that now.

不，絕對。所以看，我認為在這個促銷問題上，我們應該討論幾個基本原理，然後我們應該討論它返回的時間。但基本面是這些都是非常促銷的類別。它們是非常有彈性的類別，需求確實隨著促銷和價格的增加而擴大。所以它總是 - 他們一直非常促銷，而且我認為沒有理由相信，這不會在某個時候重申自己。我們看到了一個非常不尋常的時期，價格上漲而銷量下降的幅度低於歷史水平，但我們現在顯然已經達到了極限。

So I think that there's no reason to believe, although our customers are clearly using more advanced analytics to target promotions and I clearly will have learned something from the last 12 months. There's no reason to believe we don't revert to a more normal promotional activity for these categories.

所以我認為沒有理由相信，儘管我們的客戶顯然正在使用更高級的分析來定位促銷活動，而且我顯然會從過去 12 個月中學到一些東西。沒有理由相信我們不會恢復對這些類別的更正常的促銷活動。

And then the second fundamental is that inflation is moderating. And so you'd expect to see overall average pricing moderating relative to wage growth and other factors.

第二個基本面是通貨膨脹正在放緩。因此，相對於工資增長和其他因素，您預計整體平均定價會有所緩和。

And then in terms of why we're confident in timing through the rest of the year, I think that we've had signals from customers that they're looking into additional promotions for Q2 and beyond. I think that they've got some [firepower] particularly as the LME comes off, they can actually do some promotional activity without actually damaging margin.

然後就為什麼我們對今年剩餘時間的時間安排充滿信心而言，我認為我們已經從客戶那裡收到信號，表明他們正在研究第二季度及以後的額外促銷活動。我認為他們有一些 [firepower] 特別是在 LME 關閉時，他們實際上可以做一些促銷活動而不會實際損害利潤率。

As I say, I think they have reached the limit of sales growth without driving some volume. I think the price lever is at that limit. And then finally, they're not just saying to us, right? They're saying it publicly, and I think the major CSD player in the last week or so has absolutely signaled that they want to both carry on hitting the higher end of the market, but definitely hitting the lower end and the more economically challenged consumers because they don't want to lose those consumers to their brand.

正如我所說，我認為他們在沒有推動銷量的情況下已經達到了銷售增長的極限。我認為價格槓桿處於那個極限。最後，他們不只是對我們說，對吧？他們公開表示，我認為上週左右的主要 CSD 播放器已經明確表示他們希望繼續衝擊高端市場，但肯定會衝擊低端市場和經濟困難的消費者因為他們不想讓這些消費者轉向他們的品牌。

So I think when you add it all together, it makes all sorts of sense that you'd see some increased promotional activity as we go through the year. And that's what we thought when we gave our full year guidance, and our opinion on that hasn't changed.

所以我認為，當你將所有這些加在一起時，你會看到我們在這一年中看到一些增加的促銷活動是有道理的。這就是我們在給出全年指導時的想法，我們對此的看法沒有改變。

My last one, I'll turn it over. So we have volumes, we're getting to pick up. You have accelerated improvement in PPI recapture or mechanisms, yet were down year-on-year in EBITDA 2Q versus 2Q last year. Can you give us a rough bridge, David, in terms of how we go from the roughly $180 to the $170 2Q versus 2Q?

我的最後一個，我會把它翻過來。所以我們有數量，我們開始回升。您在 PPI 回收或機制方面加速改進，但與去年第二季度相比，第二季度 EBITDA 同比下降。就我們如何從大約 180 美元到 170 美元 2Q 和 2Q 而言，你能給我們一個粗略的橋樑嗎？

Yes. Go ahead, David.

是的。去吧，大衛。

Yes. Sure. So effectively, in Q2 last year, you had the Brazil reopening, which was a volume coming in the offseason from transitioning out of COVID, which gave a very unusual offseason pattern. And that explains the entirety of the bridge. In fact, it's more than the minus 10%. It's near or minus 20%, and then you've got the other growth components bridging back up.

是的。當然。如此有效，在去年第二季度，巴西重新開放，這是休賽期從 COVID 過渡而來的數量，這給出了一個非常不尋常的休賽期模式。這解釋了整個橋樑。事實上，它超過負 10%。它接近或負 20%，然後你就會得到其他增長組件的支持。

From Morgan Stanley, we will now go to Angel Castillo.

從摩根士丹利，我們現在將前往 Angel Castillo。

Just wanted to maybe expand a little bit more on the customer dynamics. You mentioned the promotional activity. Could you talk a little bit about maybe the buying patterns, the destocking trends that you've seen? So maybe what are you hearing in terms of their level of inventories? And I think one of your peers talked about potential buying patterns in Europe where customers are maybe delaying a little bit of buying, maybe until we get a little bit closer into the summer season. So what are you seeing across the regions in terms of the buying patterns as well?

只是想進一步擴展客戶動態。你提到了促銷活動。你能談談你所看到的購買模式和去庫存趨勢嗎？那麼，就他們的庫存水平而言，您可能聽到了什麼？我想你們的一位同行談到了歐洲潛在的購買模式，那裡的客戶可能會稍微推遲購買，可能要等到我們離夏季更近一點。那麼，就購買模式而言，您在各個地區看到了什麼？

So let's go region by region. I think in Europe, we see that the consumer is still resilient, but they are clearly under pressure. So energy costs have risen very significantly as a proportion of household income. And so I think what that means, there's a volatility in demand patterns customer by customer. So soft drink is definitely a bit stronger than beer. But even within beer, we have some very high performers. Typically, companies focused on the economy segment. So either brand -- branded economy segment or own label performing extremely strongly.

因此，讓我們逐個地區。我認為在歐洲，我們看到消費者仍然有彈性，但他們顯然承受著壓力。因此，作為家庭收入的一部分，能源成本已經大幅上升。所以我認為這意味著，客戶需求模式存在波動。所以汽水肯定比啤酒烈一點。但即使在啤酒領域，我們也有一些表現非常出色的產品。通常，公司專注於經濟領域。因此，無論是品牌——品牌經濟領域還是自有品牌都表現非常強勁。

So I don't think you've got a single picture for the market. You've got different players performing differently. And therefore, you'll see in our results and our peers' results probably some different results linked to customer mix and which customers you're in by region. So as I say, we definitely have some strength in beer, but we also have some weakness at the higher end.

所以我不認為你對市場有任何了解。你有不同的球員表現不同。因此，您會在我們的結果和我們同行的結果中看到一些與客戶組合相關的不同結果以及您所在地區的客戶。所以正如我所說，我們在啤酒方面肯定有一些優勢，但我們在高端也有一些弱點。

And we also just have some one-off effects in our results. We've got some filling that moved to the Nordics where we don't have capacity. We've got some still water filling that's moved back to the U.S. So there's also some one-off effects in Europe. So that's why we still think it's a low single to mid market this year. And I think it just will depend a lot on which customers and which segments you're in.

而且我們的結果也有一些一次性的影響。我們有一些填充物轉移到了我們沒有產能的北歐地區。我們有一些靜水填充物被運回美國，因此在歐洲也有一些一次性的影響。所以這就是為什麼我們仍然認為今年它是一個低端到中端市場。而且我認為這在很大程度上取決於您所在的客戶和細分市場。

If we turn to North America, there's clearly strength in the soft drink side, CSD and especially the energy space, which is very hot, still a lot of innovation in that space, exciting new companies. And we can see -- and the beginnings of that coming across into the sports drink space. We believe that's a very strong space for the cans to grow share, currently very underpenetrated and lots of room for healthier options there as well.

如果我們轉向北美，軟飲料方面、CSD 尤其是非常熱門的能源領域顯然有實力，該領域仍有很多創新，令人興奮的新公司。我們可以看到 - 以及進入運動飲料領域的開端。我們認為，對於罐頭食品來說，這是一個非常強大的增長空間，目前市場滲透率很低，而且那裡還有很多更健康的選擇空間。

So I think North America -- this 83% innovation number is really playing through into the market, and we're seeing that in the results. Obviously, there's still softness in key areas. So [seltzers] for us, we had softness in particular with one customer there. We also had softness with the beer customer. And that linked to their overall market weakness. So I think that's where there is some softness. Again clearly with the events of the last few weeks, there's going to be very different outcomes for different players in the market, depending on which customer they've got on the beer side. So I think we'll again see some volatility in results across the can makers.

所以我認為北美 - 這個 83% 的創新數字確實正在進入市場，我們在結果中看到了這一點。顯然，關鍵領域仍然疲軟。所以 [seltzers] 對我們來說，我們特別喜歡那裡的一位顧客。我們對啤酒客戶也態度溫和。這與他們的整體市場疲軟有關。所以我認為這是有一些柔軟的地方。再次清楚地看到過去幾週發生的事件，市場上不同的參與者將有非常不同的結果，這取決於他們在啤酒方面擁有的客戶。所以我認為我們將再次看到罐頭製造商的業績出現一些波動。

And then we -- in North America, we had a couple of contract gains. Those are linked to when the market was very tight, and customers were diversifying a bit. And we can see those in our results, which is why we think we're a little bit ahead of the market. The market we put, probably a low single digit for the quarter, mainly on the back of the strength, both -- there's still growth in some of the newer players in the market. I think that the existing players in the market is probably around flat.

然後我們——在北美，我們獲得了一些合同收益。這些與市場非常緊張的時候有關，而客戶也在一點點多樣化。我們可以在我們的結果中看到這些，這就是為什麼我們認為我們領先於市場一點點。我們認為本季度的市場可能是一個低個位數，主要是在實力的支持下——市場上一些較新的參與者仍在增長。我認為市場上現有的參與者可能持平。

And then South America, it did grow the market, high single digits, but against a very weak comparator of Q1 '22. So look, overall, it is soft. We definitely had some brighter spots with some customers recovering, but we also had some weaker spots, especially as we had a very strong first half with a couple of customers last year. And so that's a tough comparator for us.

然後是南美，它確實增長了市場，高個位數，但與 22 年第一季度的非常弱的比較器相比。所以你看，總體來說，它是軟的。我們肯定有一些亮點，一些客戶正在恢復，但我們也有一些弱點，尤其是去年上半年我們有幾個客戶表現非常強勁。所以這對我們來說是一個艱難的比較。

And as David just mentioned, we've got a very tough comparator coming in Q2 where post COVID, the market opened up very fast and very strong. And we don't see that happening this year. We see the growth coming much more in the second half when the LME hedges roll off some of the input -- other input cost inflation moderates, and we'll see the big customers going back into retail away from returnables and discounting much more. So that's how we see the 3 markets at the moment.

正如大衛剛才提到的，我們在第二季度有一個非常強硬的比較器，在 COVID 之後，市場開放得非常快而且非常強勁。我們今年看不到這種情況。我們預計下半年增長會更快，屆時 LME 的對沖將減少一些投入——其他投入成本通脹緩和，我們將看到大客戶從可退貨和更多折扣回到零售業。這就是我們目前對這三個市場的看法。

That's very helpful. And maybe just to clarify on a couple of those points. I think you said Europe looking just to mid-single digit. I think if I recall correctly, your last quarter, your thought process was maybe industry does mid-single digit, and Ardagh, maybe is closer to low single digits. Is it fair to assume now that given what you're seeing, maybe there's a little bit of optimism that Ardagh can also kind of start to approach into the mid-single digits? So just to clarify that whether it's kind of...

這很有幫助。也許只是為了澄清其中的幾點。我想你說歐洲只看中個位數。我想如果我沒記錯的話，你的最後一個季度，你的思維過程可能是行業中個位數，而 Ardagh 可能更接近低個位數。現在可以公平地假設，鑑於您所看到的，也許有點樂觀，認為 Ardagh 也可以開始接近中個位數？所以只是為了澄清它是否有點......

No, I [think I didn't] say that. Yes. No, I wouldn't say that. We're 2% Q1, and we could tick up a little bit from there. But I think we still think there are other categories and other customers where there's a bit more strength that we don't play in, particularly on the energy drink side. So I think we're still guiding to low in the market, low to mid.

不，我 [想我沒有] 這麼說。是的。不，我不會那樣說。我們是 2% Q1，我們可以從那裡開始一點點。但我認為我們仍然認為在其他類別和其他客戶中我們沒有發揮更大的優勢，特別是在能量飲料方面。所以我認為我們仍在引導市場低位，低位到中位。

Got it. Okay. And then lastly, just I guess on the curtailments. What type point should we kind of look out for in terms of when Ardagh might consider kind of restarting that? Or are we operating at a high level?

知道了。好的。最後，我猜是關於削減的。就 Ardagh 何時考慮重新啟動它而言，我們應該注意什麼類型的點？還是我們在高水平運作？

Well, we said at the full year, we're curtailing over $1 billion in Europe this year and over $2 billion in North America. We continue to monitor that, obviously, on a month-by-month basis, and we continue to monitor our overall capacity because we do intend to keep utilization in the 90s over the next few years.

好吧，我們說過全年，我們今年在歐洲削減了超過 10 億美元，在北美削減了超過 20 億美元。顯然，我們會繼續逐月監控，我們會繼續監控我們的整體產能，因為我們確實打算在未來幾年內將利用率保持在 90 年代。

We'll now move to Arun Viswanathan from RBC.

我們現在將從 RBC 轉到 Arun Viswanathan。

I guess first question is on Europe. There's been a lot of inflation there over the last couple of years. Some of your peers have commented on restructuring the contracts to recover some of that through pricing. Is that part of your European outlook as well? And what's the update on progress if those initiatives have been part of your strategy?

我想第一個問題是關於歐洲的。過去幾年那里通貨膨脹很大。您的一些同行評論了重組合同以通過定價收回部分合同。這也是你歐洲觀點的一部分嗎？如果這些舉措已成為您戰略的一部分，進展情況如何？

Yes. Sure. Arun. So look, I think it's unchanged from the full year. So we completed all that activity last year in terms of getting to more direct energy pass-through mechanisms with customers, particularly large customers. We hedged out all our risk for this year, last year and confirm with customers that they were comfortable with that position, which is higher than spot because of the unexpected drop in the energy market. But as I say, all of those activities were completed last year. And so the guide we gave at the full year, which is we are expecting to overcover on inflation over the course of the year relative to our cost inflation '22 into '23, that guide remains intact. We will have an overrecovery this year. And that gets us probably 75%, 80% back to 2021 margin levels in Europe, and we're hoping to retain -- regain the rest into '24.

是的。當然。阿倫。所以看，我認為它與全年相比沒有變化。因此，我們去年完成了與客戶（尤其是大客戶）建立更直接的能源傳遞機制方面的所有活動。我們對沖了今年和去年的所有風險，並與客戶確認他們對這一頭寸感到滿意，由於能源市場意外下跌，該頭寸高於現貨。但正如我所說，所有這些活動都已於去年完成。因此，我們在全年給出的指南，即我們預計在這一年中相對於我們的成本通脹'22 到'23 的通貨膨脹，該指南保持不變。今年我們將過度復甦。這可能使我們 75%、80% 回到歐洲 2021 年的利潤率水平，我們希望保留 - 將其餘部分恢復到 24 年。

Okay. And just so on that note then, does your European business take a step down from here? And maybe you can just characterize what you're seeing in Europe from a demand perspective. We're seeing some crosscurrents, some categories are weaker, but then -- and maybe related to the consumer. Is that what you're seeing as well? Or maybe just comment overall on the outlook there.

好的。那麼就此而言，您的歐洲業務是否會從這裡退步？也許您可以從需求的角度描述您在歐洲看到的情況。我們看到了一些逆流，一些類別較弱，但可能與消費者有關。這也是你所看到的嗎？或者，也許只是對那裡的前景發表總體評論。

No. Our European business takes a step up from here because we lose the drag from the accounting treatment on some of the inflation pass-through. So the European business takes a step up from here.

不。我們的歐洲業務從這裡向前邁進了一步，因為我們擺脫了會計處理對某些通貨膨脹傳遞的拖累。因此，歐洲業務從這裡邁出了一步。

And yes, back to my previous comments, what I think you're seeing in Europe is a lot of volatility in demand across different players because they're operating in different parts of the market. And right now, you need to be operating in economy or price competitive parts of the market or you need to be discounting into those parts of the market because the consumer is under pressure.

是的，回到我之前的評論，我認為你在歐洲看到的是不同參與者的需求波動很大，因為他們在市場的不同部分開展業務。而現在，您需要在市場的經濟或價格競爭部分開展業務，或者您需要在市場的這些部分打折，因為消費者面臨壓力。

So what we see is a lot of variation between customers depending on their pricing strategies. We definitely see soft drinks a bit stronger than beer overall. We suspect that energy drinks is also a bit stronger, though, again, we don't have the big share of that market. We have good share, but not the big share. And overall, we think the European market is pretty resilient on the can side. Very strong sustainability tailwind still, and again, good innovation coming into the can.

因此，我們看到客戶之間存在很大差異，具體取決於他們的定價策略。總體而言，我們肯定會看到軟飲料比啤酒更烈。我們懷疑能量飲料也更強一些，但同樣，我們在該市場的份額並不大。我們有很好的份額，但不是很大的份額。總的來說，我們認為歐洲市場在罐頭方面相當有彈性。非常強大的可持續性順風仍然存在，而且，好的創新再次進入罐頭。

And just a question on North America. You mentioned increasing promotional activity in nonalcoholic. Could you comment on that in the context of capacity? It appears that a couple of years ago when the market was really tight, pricing was achievable. Now potentially, the market is a little bit more balanced. So if the beverage companies do increase their promotional activity, does that result in maybe some give back of price or especially with considering the deflation. How would you kind of characterize the competitive environment in cans in North America?

還有一個關於北美的問題。你提到了增加非酒精飲料的促銷活動。您能否在容量方面對此發表評論？幾年前，當市場非常緊張時，定價似乎是可以實現的。現在可能，市場更加平衡了。因此，如果飲料公司確實增加了促銷活動，這是否會導致一些價格回饋，或者特別是考慮到通貨緊縮。您如何描述北美罐頭行業的競爭環境？

We're highly contracted and so are our major peers through the middle of the decade. So we're not seeing any significant price activity. There's a little bit of the margins on the spot market with small volumes typically to smaller players, but we don't see anything significant. And if you look into the can side that are selling well at the moment, we don't see room for lots of movement there. So yes, nothing to report there.

在本世紀中期，我們的合同非常緊，我們的主要同行也是如此。所以我們沒有看到任何重大的價格活動。現貨市場上有一點利潤率，通常是小規模的參與者，但我們沒有看到任何顯著的利潤。而且，如果您查看目前銷售良好的罐裝面，我們看不到那裡有很大的變動空間。所以是的，沒有什麼可報告的。

So if you put all that together, would you characterize -- if you can just help us understand the supply-demand balance in each of these markets. So the U.S., again, we've gone through a period of capacity build-out on an oversold market, and there's been some rationalization. So are we balanced in the U.S.? I guess maybe if it's more helpful to talk by categories, that's fine. And then -- and you could do that. And then also similarly in Europe and Brazil, how did you characterize the supply and demand?

所以如果你把所有這些放在一起，你會描述 - 如果你能幫助我們了解每個市場的供需平衡。因此，美國又一次在超賣市場上經歷了一段時間的產能建設，並且出現了一些合理化。那麼我們在美國平衡了嗎？我想如果按類別討論更有幫助，那很好。然後 - 你可以做到這一點。然後同樣在歐洲和巴西，你如何描述供求關係？

So I think the way we'd characterize that is the major players taking action to keep ourselves balanced and to keep utilization in the 90s. And we're doing that either through some closures, as we've signaled in our Europe business, with the steel line, all we're doing it through curtailment actions, so taking down capacity and reducing cost as far as possible through that because we intend to run in the 90s, and that's the situation we're going to monitor. We're confident our peers will monitor that in the same way.

所以我認為我們描述的方式是主要參與者採取行動來保持我們自己的平衡並保持 90 年代的利用率。我們正在通過一些關閉來做到這一點，正如我們在歐洲業務中所暗示的那樣，通過鋼鐵生產線，我們正在通過削減行動來做到這一點，因此盡可能降低產能並降低成本，因為我們打算在 90 年代運行，這就是我們要監控的情況。我們相信我們的同行將以同樣的方式進行監控。

And so I think that although there is capacity in the market, I think it's being managed in a good way. And I think that's true also in Europe where there's probably a bit less capacity being built out in the last few years and similarly in Brazil where the market is a bit softer. So there clearly is capacity available in all 3 markets, but I think everybody is making sure to take the actions to run at a good utilization level.

所以我認為，儘管市場上有容量，但我認為它正在以良好的方式進行管理。我認為在歐洲也是如此，過去幾年建設的產能可能略有減少，同樣在市場疲軟的巴西也是如此。所以這三個市場顯然都有可用容量，但我認為每個人都確保採取行動以良好的利用率水平運行。

And just one last one. So when you think about the IPO trajectory, obviously, there's been some changes there. So how are you thinking about achieving maybe the '21 -- sorry, the '24 numbers around $1.1 billion of EBITDA? When are we on path to maybe see that?

最後一個。因此，當您考慮 IPO 軌跡時，顯然那裡發生了一些變化。那麼，您如何考慮實現'21 - 抱歉，'24 的EBITDA 約為11 億美元？我們什麼時候才能看到它？

So they're clearly not in 2024, and we'll guide each year as we go. I think we said at the full year, and so we can repeat, there are 3 elements that mean that we won't get to $1.1 billion without further action. Those 3 elements are foreign exchange, so that can obviously move. The second element is we've not built out all the investment in the original program, so particularly the Brazil greenfield. And the third element is that our program included a significant proportion of seltzers, which had a very strong mix impact in our numbers.

所以他們顯然不是在 2024 年，我們將每年進行指導。我想我們在全年說過，所以我們可以重複，有 3 個要素意味著如果不採取進一步行動，我們將無法達到 11 億美元。這三個要素是外匯，因此可以明顯移動。第二個因素是我們還沒有完成對原始項目的所有投資，尤其是巴西綠地。第三個要素是我們的計劃包括很大比例的蘇打水，這對我們的數量產生了非常強烈的混合影響。

So that's also a drag. And we're not giving exact numbers on any of this, but it means that it won't be '24, and it won't be at that level. But that said, I think we're sitting nicely now with a period of growth in the industry about which we're very confident and with no need to do further investment and with a good set of new and efficient assets. So I think we're well placed for the growth that's about to come.

所以這也是一個拖累。而且我們沒有給出任何這些的確切數字，但這意味著它不會是 24 年，也不會達到那個水平。但話雖如此，我認為我們現在正處於行業的一段增長期，我們對此非常有信心，不需要進行進一步的投資，並且擁有一套新的高效資產。所以我認為我們為即將到來的增長做好了準備。

Our next question comes from Kyle White from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Kyle White。

I wanted to go back a little bit to the curtailment actions, but also to -- I think you mentioned in some still water over in Europe moving to the U.S., and I believe you have a key customer there that is relatively small but seen pretty strong growth rates. As that moves to the U.S., are you going to get that business? Do you need to make any investments for it? And then also, what does that mean for your European footprint in terms of now potentially having some excess slack over in the Austrian region?

我想稍微回顧一下削減行動，還有——我想你在歐洲的一些靜水中提到過要搬到美國，我相信你在那裡有一個相對較小但看起來很漂亮的關鍵客戶強勁的增長率。當它轉移到美國時，你會得到那筆生意嗎？您需要為此進行任何投資嗎？然後，就現在可能在奧地利地區有一些過剩的閒置而言，這對您的歐洲足跡意味著什麼？

Yes. I mean it's not the biggest situation. So I'm just mentioning it, the [high curve] is more kind of, that's a one-off example of some things happening in the first quarter, but it's not -- we're not picking up in the U.S. because of the geographical footprint, but it is actually them planning -- they're planning to launch in Europe. So we'd have to backfill it that way. So it's got no meaningful impact really on our capacity position.

是的。我的意思是這不是最大的情況。所以我只是提一下，[高曲線]更像是，這是第一季度發生的一些事情的一次性例子，但事實並非如此——我們在美國沒有回升，因為地理足跡，但實際上是他們的計劃——他們計劃在歐洲推出。所以我們必須以這種方式回填它。因此，它對我們的產能狀況沒有真正的影響。

And overall, in Europe, I think with the actions we're taking, we're pretty balanced there. I mean that category, though, overall, I think, is beginning to move. And we always said, for us, it was a sort of mid-decade opportunity. There clearly is now action there, new brands, new activity and people very interested in it. So we're still excited about it. We're not letting any of the bank on it, but we're still excited about the still water category. And as I said in my other remarks, I think there's a few other categories very ripe for the can, including the sports drink as well. So there's some good space for additional innovation still to come.

總的來說，在歐洲，我認為通過我們正在採取的行動，我們在那裡非常平衡。我的意思是，總體而言，我認為該類別正在開始發生變化。我們總是說，對我們來說，這是一個十年中期的機會。顯然現在那裡正在採取行動，新品牌，新活動和對它非常感興趣的人。所以我們仍然對此感到興奮。我們不會讓任何銀行參與其中，但我們仍然對靜水類別感到興奮。正如我在其他評論中所說，我認為還有一些其他類別的罐裝飲料已經非常成熟，包括運動飲料。因此，還有一些很好的空間可以進行更多的創新。

Appreciate that. And then I know you've given a lot of color regarding the categories in some of the regions. So I was wondering if you could just give us a little bit more details on particularly in North America, just how the quarter progressed from a shipment standpoint and then maybe what you're seeing in shipments here in April?

感謝。然後我知道你已經對一些地區的類別給出了很多顏色。所以我想知道您是否可以向我們提供更多詳細信息，特別是在北美，從出貨的角度來看本季度的進展情況，以及您在 4 月份在這裡看到的出貨情況？

Yes. We had a decent start. I think March was slightly weaker than expectations, and April similarly, but we're looking into May and June where we see some good demand. So yes, no particular trend, I think, in there. There's just some ups and downs. And I think that goes back to the fact that the market remains a little bit volatile. I mean clearly, nothing like last year, but a little bit volatility to the pressures on the consumer. Some of the pricing actions that are being taken that are very different across our customer base. So mix is important, and it can vary quite a bit month-to-month.

是的。我們有一個不錯的開始。我認為 3 月略低於預期，4 月也類似，但我們正在研究 5 月和 6 月，我們看到一些良好的需求。所以是的，我認為沒有特別的趨勢。只是有一些起伏。我認為這可以追溯到市場仍然有點波動的事實。我的意思很明確，與去年完全不同，但對消費者的壓力略有波動。正在採取的一些定價措施在我們的客戶群中非常不同。所以混合很重要，而且每個月可能會有很大差異。

Got it. And then just last one here on CapEx. I believe all your growth investments will be largely completed in terms of the one that we expect to do. And I don't have any further kind of capacity expansions in 2024. So if that's the case, how much lower can your CapEx go? And what's kind of a good normalized CapEx range for you?

知道了。然後是資本支出的最後一個。我相信你們所有的增長投資都將在很大程度上按照我們期望的方式完成。而且我在 2024 年沒有任何進一步的產能擴張。所以如果是這樣的話，你的資本支出可以降低多少？什麼樣的標準化資本支出範圍適合您？

Yes. Look, it's going to go very meaningfully lower. So in the $300 million, it will drop by a lot. I think the market has got a couple of $100 million down from that. We're not disagreeing with that. We haven't guided to it. And then our maintenance runs in the sort of $120 million, $130 million level. So that's typically what we're looking at there. And as you put those numbers together with some EBITDA growth, that's why you can see we're very confident in the sustainability of the dividend.

是的。看，它會非常有意義地走低。所以在這3億美元中，它會下降很多。我認為市場已經從中減少了 1 億美元。我們並不反對這一點。我們還沒有指導它。然後我們的維護費用大約為 1.2 億美元，1.3 億美元。所以這通常就是我們在那裡看到的。當您將這些數字與一些 EBITDA 增長放在一起時，這就是為什麼您可以看到我們對股息的可持續性非常有信心。

From wells Fargo Securities, we will take the next question from Gabe Hajde.

我們將從富國銀行證券公司接受 Gabe Hajde 的下一個問題。

I had a question, 2 actually, on Brazil. And appreciating that you can't speak for kind of your sister organization. They've chosen to kind of accelerate their glass investment, and then you guys have sort of delayed the greenfield investment that you're going to make in cans down in Brazil. And -- so I'm curious if you can explain to us just from a, I guess, short-term/long-term perspective. In the short term here, it feels like there's sufficient capacity, by our estimates, kind of mid-70s utilization and as well as pressure on the consumer. On a long-term basis, to the extent that there is a transition from returnable glass to one-way packaging, kind of both substrates can win in that environment from a number of units perspective. So just anything that you can speak to in terms of one substrate winning or not in the beer category down there and then what we should be looking for in the outside world that could kind of reaccelerate that transition to one way versus returnable.

實際上，我有一個關於巴西的問題 2。並感謝您不能代表您的姐妹組織。他們已經選擇加快他們的玻璃投資，然後你們推遲了你們將在巴西進行的罐裝綠地投資。而且 - 所以我很好奇你是否可以從短期/長期的角度向我們解釋。在這裡的短期內，根據我們的估計，感覺有足夠的容量，70 年代中期的利用率以及對消費者的壓力。從長遠來看，就從可回收玻璃向單向包裝過渡的程度而言，從多個單元的角度來看，兩種基板都可以在這種環境中獲勝。因此，就啤酒類別中的一種基質是否獲勝而言，你可以談論的任何事情，然後是我們應該在外部世界尋找的東西，可以重新加速向一種方式而不是可回收方式的轉變。

Yes. Look, I think in one-returnable transition to one-way transitions to one-way can (inaudible) glass because the customers want to use the shelf and have some premium positioning around glass and then some mass volume driving around cans. And actually, what's happened in Brazil historically is that was held back by a lack of one-way glass capacity. And so the cans took all the growth as the returnables declined.

是的。看，我認為在從單向過渡到單向過渡到單向罐（聽不清）玻璃的過程中，因為客戶想要使用貨架並在玻璃周圍有一些優質定位，然後在罐頭周圍有一些質量驅動。實際上，巴西曆史上發生的事情是由於缺乏單向玻璃產能而受阻。因此，隨著可回收產品的減少，易拉罐佔據了所有增長。

And so I think customers in Brazil are still short and importing the one way, and that explains why you might see investments there. Whereas as you say, I think there's sufficient capacity on the can side at the moment that carries through a couple of years of good growth now, particularly with the investments we've done in the one way completing this year.

所以我認為巴西的客戶仍然很短缺，並且以一種方式進口，這就解釋了為什麼你可能會在那裡看到投資。正如你所說，我認為目前罐頭方面有足夠的產能，可以實現幾年的良好增長，特別是我們今年以一種方式完成的投資。

And then I think what drove the shift out of returnable and has driven it in all markets as GDP per capita rises is that as consumers get richer, they don't like returnable and retailers and mass retailers, in particular, that grow with economic development also particularly don't like returnable.

然後我認為，隨著人均 GDP 的增長，推動可退貨業務轉變並在所有市場推動這種轉變的是，隨著消費者變得越來越富有，他們不喜歡可退貨業務，尤其是隨著經濟發展而增長的零售商和大眾零售商也特別不喜歡退貨。

And so you get the shift into one-way packaging. And that's a fundamental shift, and we expect that to continue once the normalization occurs around the very high inflation that's occurred on the can in the last 6, 12 months in Brazil, which we talked about -- and others have talked about, that's about the LME and where our customers have to hedge LME, and it's also about the fact that with dollar price elements of the can, which in a devaluing currency environment obviously increases inflation.

因此，您轉向了單向包裝。這是一個根本性的轉變，我們預計，一旦圍繞過去 6 個月、12 個月在巴西發生的非常高的通貨膨脹出現正常化，這種情況就會繼續下去，我們談到過——其他人也談到過，那就是LME 和我們的客戶必須對沖 LME 的地方，這也是關於美元價格元素的事實，在貨幣貶值的環境下，這顯然會增加通貨膨脹。

So those are a set of one-offs that will unwind during this year. And then I think you'll see that the competition or return to the off-trade into the cans and to the extent they can source it one-way glass, because that's where market share will be gained and that's what led to the shift out of returnable over the last few years was the fact that players didn't like losing market share.

因此，這些是今年將解除的一系列一次性措施。然後我想你會看到競爭或回到罐頭的場外貿易，並且在某種程度上他們可以採購單向玻璃，因為這是獲得市場份額的地方，也是導致轉移的原因在過去幾年中，玩家不喜歡失去市場份額這一事實。

So as I say, we think that's a fundamental shift. We think you can track off-trade penetration in cans and that, that will return to its growth pattern like it has for every other developing market over the years. And returnable systems then eventually do collapse because they lose scale. So yes, keep an eye on off-trade penetration of cans is the number to look for.

正如我所說，我們認為這是一個根本性的轉變。我們認為你可以追踪罐頭的非貿易滲透率，並且它將恢復到多年來與其他所有發展中市場一樣的增長模式。可回收系統最終會崩潰，因為它們失去了規模。所以，是的，關注罐頭的非貿易滲透率是要尋找的數字。

Okay. Perfect. And then I don't know exactly -- I know it varies jurisdiction, a jurisdiction in terms of bankruptcy protection rights, but will this enable sort of that customer to come back and renegotiate contracts with yourselves and, presumably, those others in the market? And could that possibly trigger just sort of a repricing event across the space? Or is that just sort of a tail risk or something I'm kind of making up in my head?

好的。完美的。然後我不完全知道 - 我知道它會改變司法管轄區，破產保護權方面的司法管轄區，但這是否會讓客戶回來並與你們自己以及市場上的其他人重新談判合同？這可能會引發整個領域的重新定價事件嗎？還是這只是一種尾部風險或我腦子裡想出來的東西？

No. Look, I think we've also evaluated that risk, and we regard it as very low. So I think that this obviously mainly allows them to trade effectively and come to some sort of plan with creditors. And we -- as I say, we've done our assessment on that with our security position, and we're comfortable with our position.

不，看，我認為我們也評估了這種風險，我們認為它非常低。所以我認為這顯然主要是讓他們能夠有效地進行交易並與債權人達成某種計劃。我們——正如我所說，我們已經對我們的安全立場進行了評估，我們對我們的立場感到滿意。

Okay. One last one on Europe. To the extent that you have sort of implemented what I'll call the pass-through model for energy and other inflationary components into your contracts for that geography, should we then think about, all else equal, if '23, there's deflation relative to '22 that you would be passing that on to your customers in '24? And again, sort of, I don't know, maybe 6 to 12-month lag, maybe it's all -- maybe it's 12 months entirely. Just sort of how to think about that? Because I think the business model now has probably changed. Again, I guess the one thing we need to be mindful of is, obviously, to the extent you guys have hedged energy for this year, that's -- that may not necessarily be the case on a go-forward basis.

好的。最後一篇關於歐洲。在某種程度上，你已經將我稱之為能源和其他通貨膨脹成分的傳遞模型實施到該地區的合同中，那麼我們是否應該考慮，在其他條件相同的情況下，如果 23 年，相對於'22 你會在 '24 將其傳遞給你的客戶嗎？再一次，有點，我不知道，可能有 6 到 12 個月的滯後，也許就是全部——也許完全是 12 個月。只是如何考慮呢？因為我認為現在的商業模式可能已經改變了。再一次，我想我們需要注意的一件事是，很明顯，你們今年對沖能源的程度，那就是——在未來的基礎上可能不一定是這樣。

Yes. So exactly. So for '23, there's no impact of the falling energy because we're fully hedged and the big customers -- we're comfortable with the decisions we took there and accepted those into the '23 volumes. So yes -- but on the direct energy pass-through, as energy falls, that will get passed through back to customers. On the normal PPI resets, typically, we don't see a negative in our costs because of labor and some other cost elements. So that typically has a floor. But on the direct energy piece, yes, there will clearly be some get back with the dropping of the energy price.

是的。正是這樣。因此，對於 23 年，能源下降沒有影響，因為我們已經完全對沖和大客戶——我們對我們在那裡做出的決定感到滿意，並將這些決定納入 23 年的捲。所以是的 - 但在直接能量傳遞中，隨著能量下降，它將傳遞回客戶。在正常的 PPI 重置中，通常，由於勞動力和其他一些成本因素，我們不會看到我們的成本出現負面影響。所以這通常有一個底線。但在直接能源方面，是的，隨著能源價格的下降，顯然會有一些回報。

We will now move to Jay Mayers from Goldman Sachs.

我們現在將從高盛轉向 Jay Mayers。

So I guess a quick one and then a higher level question for you. The quick one is just of the curtailment you guys have talked about for this year, the 1 billion in Europe and 2 billion cans in North America, have you started that yet? And if so, how far along are you?

所以我猜想先問一個問題，然後再問一個更高層次的問題。快速的只是你們今年談論的削減，歐洲 10 億罐和北美 20 億罐，你們開始了嗎？如果是這樣，你有多遠？

And then the higher level question -- yourself and some of your peers are taking actions to kind of curtail volumes and balance the market out, but there are still some new entrants who are talking about adding some pretty meaningful capacity. Can you just talk about how you think that can impact the market here in the near term? Are you feeling pretty good about your contracted position? Is there ability for some shift there? Are they going to have a hard time kind of breaking in with the amount of contracted revenue that you feel like the industry has right now? Any thoughts there would be appreciated.

然後是更高層次的問題——你和你的一些同行正在採取行動來減少數量並平衡市場，但仍有一些新進入者正在談論增加一些非常有意義的能力。你能談談你認為這會在短期內影響這裡的市場嗎？你對你的合同職位感覺很好嗎？那裡有一些轉變的能力嗎？他們是否會很難突破您認為該行業目前擁有的合同收入？如果有任何想法，我們將不勝感激。

Sure, Jay. So the quick answer to the quick question was, yes. We've started those actions, and we're well into them, and we'll be monitoring the extent we need to do through the year.

當然，傑伊。所以對這個快速問題的快速回答是，是的。我們已經開始採取這些行動，而且我們已經深入開展這些行動，我們將監測全年需要完成的工作範圍。

In terms of the other players, I think most of them did get some degree of contractual coverage on their investments. And so we don't see that impacting us because those are known events in the near term. So again, sort of through to the middle of the decade. Now whether they're getting the volumes that went with those contractual recoveries, we don't know. And so we can't speak to what impact that's having on them and their position. But at the minute, we don't see that significantly impacting on us again for the next year or 2 because of our overall position on contracts.

就其他參與者而言，我認為他們中的大多數確實對他們的投資進行了一定程度的合同覆蓋。因此，我們認為這不會影響我們，因為這些是近期內已知的事件。再說一遍，一直到本世紀中期。現在，他們是否獲得了那些合同回收的數量，我們不知道。所以我們不能說這對他們和他們的立場有什麼影響。但目前，由於我們在合同上的整體立場，我們認為這不會對我們明年或兩年再次產生重大影響。

And you mentioned earlier that kind of the marginal or kind of spot can out there, there has been some pricing pressure. Would you attribute that to the new entrants? Or just kind of the overall supply-demand balance in the North American market right now?

你之前提到過那種邊緣或那種現貨可以在那裡，存在一些定價壓力。您會將其歸因於新進入者嗎？或者只是目前北美市場的整體供需平衡？

Probably mostly around the new. And again, we're talking about prices coming off historically very high levels because of the market was so tight. So we're still talking about pricing being in healthy margin territory. But just with that additional availability, clearly, some of that is coming on to the market. But as I said, I think it's really at the margin relative to the overall volume being shipped in the market.

可能主要是圍繞新的。再一次，我們談論的是由於市場非常緊張，價格從歷史高位回落。所以我們仍在談論定價處於健康的利潤率區域。但顯然，有了這些額外的可用性，其中一些就會進入市場。但正如我所說，我認為相對於市場上的總出貨量來說，它確實處於邊緣地位。

From Bank of America, we will take our next question from George Staphos.

來自美國銀行，我們將從 George Staphos 那裡回答下一個問題。

One longer-term question, one sort of short-term financial question. The first one -- so look, when we've looked at packaging markets over the years, over time, within one-way packaging, cans almost always went out over one-way glass because you have distribution efficiencies. You have billboard. There have been some times, we have off trends, but generally, that's been the trend. With that being said, within Brazil, what are your customers telling you in terms of their intention 2 years, 3 years from now in terms of can in one way versus glass in one way?

一個長期問題，一種短期財務問題。第一個 - 所以看，當我們多年來觀察包裝市場時，隨著時間的推移，在單向包裝中，罐頭幾乎總是從單向玻璃上出去，因為你有分配效率。你有廣告牌。有幾次，我們有一些不合時宜的趨勢，但總的來說，這就是趨勢。話雖如此，在巴西，您的客戶在 2 年、3 年後以一種方式告訴您罐頭與以一種方式使用玻璃的意圖是什麼？

The second question I had shorter term -- payables look like they were down from fourth quarter, and you also mentioned a little bit more use of working capital to start the year. If you mentioned what the cause of that or those factors were, I apologize for missing it, but could you again review what was happening with payables? Why the drag on working capital? Why you expect to get it back to the source of $100 million, I think you said for the year? And good luck on the rest of the year.

我的第二個問題是短期——應付賬款看起來比第四季度有所下降，你還提到了今年開始更多地使用營運資金。如果你提到那個或那些因素的原因是什麼，我很抱歉錯過它，但你能再回顧一下應付賬款的情況嗎？為什麼會拖累營運資金？為什麼你希望讓它回到 1 億美元的來源，我想你說過這一年？祝你在今年剩下的時間裡好運。

Thanks, George. I'll take the first and hand over to David on the working capital. I think -- I mean, George, it's true that you get some share shifts in some markets over time from one way to cans, particularly in North America. But actually, if you look across broader markets, there's a stabilization that occurs at a certain point where the customers and the retailers have respectively divided the categories into more premium positioning for the glass bottle one way and then, as I said, for more mass volume driving position for the can.

謝謝，喬治。我會拿第一個，然後將營運資金交給大衛。我認為——我的意思是，喬治，隨著時間的推移，一些市場的份額確實會從一種方式轉移到罐頭，尤其是在北美。但實際上，如果你放眼更廣闊的市場，就會在某個時刻出現穩定，客戶和零售商分別將類別劃分為玻璃瓶的更高端定位，然後，正如我所說，更多質量罐的體積驅動位置。

And so you get typically a stabilization. And actually, in some markets, when they're trying for revenue management, they will push glass for a while. And so our growth has definitely come when we're talking about normal periods, 1%, 2%, 3%, before we had the big sustainability tailwind, a proportion of that was glass substitution, but often also 2-way. And so we would expect a continued growth like that, but not necessarily at the level you've always seen in North America.

所以你通常會得到穩定。實際上，在某些市場，當他們嘗試進行收入管理時，他們會推銷玻璃一段時間。因此，當我們談論正常時期時，我們的增長肯定已經到來，在我們擁有可持續發展的大順風之前，1%、2%、3%，其中一部分是玻璃替代品，但通常也是雙向的。因此，我們預計會出現這樣的持續增長，但不一定達到您在北美一直看到的水平。

And then in Brazil, our customers are not telling us very much because I think they're very short one way. And so their main problem at the moment is to try and -- to get that from a position where there is almost no one way. And therefore, that growth, we see having zero impact on our growth because our growth will be much more significant given the capacity position, given the consumer adoption of the can and given the significant shift we expect out of 2 way. So overall, yes, here the point, but I think that the can growth will be good in Brazil going forward.

然後在巴西，我們的客戶並沒有告訴我們太多，因為我認為他們的單向很短。因此，他們目前的主要問題是嘗試 - 從幾乎沒有任何方法的位置獲得它。因此，我們認為這種增長對我們的增長影響為零，因為考慮到容量位置，考慮到消費者對罐頭的採用，以及考慮到我們預期的兩種方式的重大轉變，我們的增長將更加顯著。所以總的來說，是的，這就是重點，但我認為巴西未來的罐頭增長將會很好。

Yes. I appreciate that. I mean North America and Europe, you've seen cans grow versus one-way glass over the last 20 years or so and over the last 10 years. Brazil, we'll wait to hear what you say, but I appreciate the thoughts there. David?

是的。我很感激。我的意思是北美和歐洲，在過去 20 年左右和過去 10 年裡，你已經看到罐頭與單向玻璃的增長。巴西，我們等著聽你說什麼，但我很欣賞那裡的想法。大衛？

Yes. George, thank you. So to cover off your second point, working capital, if you go back to FY '22, we had approximately $200 million outflow that's partly as we came down in terms of the demand pattern from our initial expectations and had an inventory build with that. So we're working very hard this year to get that inventory back aligned through the year, and that's our $100 million working capital inflow for the year is our step along that particular journey.

是的。喬治，謝謝你。因此，為了掩蓋你的第二點，即營運資金，如果你回到 22 財年，我們有大約 2 億美元的資金流出，部分原因是我們在需求模式方面低於我們最初的預期，並因此建立了庫存。因此，我們今年非常努力地使庫存在全年恢復一致，而我們今年 1 億美元的營運資金流入是我們在這一特定旅程中邁出的一步。

One of the first things you do along that journey is that is to kind of change of raw material buying patterns, and we calibrate that where the -- where your demand profile is, and we've been doing that during the quarter. As we step through that, of course, you get the benefit to raw materials, but you get the step-down in payables. But that means that by Q2, you should see the working capital rightsizing for raw materials relative to payables as we go through that journey. So it's just the transitional process that's causing the payables to go down in Q1.

在這段旅程中，你要做的第一件事就是改變原材料購買模式，我們會校准你的需求概況，我們在本季度一直在這樣做。當然，當我們逐步解決這個問題時，您會從原材料中獲益，但您會減少應付賬款。但這意味著到第二季度，您應該會看到原材料相對於應付賬款的營運資金在我們經歷這段旅程時得到合理調整。因此，這只是導致第一季度應付賬款下降的過渡過程。

(Operator Instructions) We will take our next question from [Alex Simon] from [Tyco]

（操作員說明）我們將接受 [Tyco] 的 [Alex Simon] 的下一個問題

Congrats on your results. So regarding your CapEx guidance for '23, your guide is $300 million, and your cash flow generation alleviation depends a lot on CapEx cuts. Given the Q1 CapEx, how much above the average targeted quarterly level? What makes you confident you potential to realize this $300 million CapEx by year-end?

祝賀你的成績。因此，關於你 23 年的資本支出指導，你的指導是 3 億美元，你的現金流產生緩解在很大程度上取決於資本支出的削減。考慮到第一季度的資本支出，比平均目標季度水平高多少？是什麼讓您有信心在年底前實現這 3 億美元的資本支出？

Yes. So look, I mean, our investment profile is front-loaded in terms of -- as we said on the -- in the opening remarks, we are finishing off projects largely that have been crystallized, started last year and under flowing through. So you will see a first half weighting to our business growth investment, then starts to tail off as we get towards the back end of the year.

是的。所以看，我的意思是，我們的投資概況是預先加載的 - 正如我們在開場白中所說的那樣，我們正在完成大部分已經具體化的項目，這些項目是去年開始的並且正在通過。所以你會看到上半年我們的業務增長投資的權重，然後隨著我們接近年底而開始減少。

(Operator Instructions) It appears we have no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Oliver for any additional or closing remarks.

（操作員說明）目前看來我們沒有其他問題了。我想將電話轉回給奧利弗，以徵求任何補充意見或結束意見。

Thanks, [Elaine], and thank you to everyone on the call. Just to summarize again, we met our Q1 guidance, and we reaffirmed our full year as we see a strengthening in the demand environment and improved EBITDA recovery through the year. We look forward to talking to you all at our Q2 results. Thank you.

謝謝，[Elaine]，也感謝電話中的每一個人。再次總結一下，我們達到了第一季度的指導目標，我們重申了全年的業績，因為我們看到需求環境在加強，全年的 EBITDA 復甦有所改善。我們期待在第二季度的結果中與大家交談。謝謝。

That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。