American International Group Inc (AIG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to AIG's Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. This conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 AIG 2023 年第四季財務業績電話會議。本次會議正在錄製中。

Now at this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Quentin McMillan. Please go ahead.

現在這個時候，我想把會議交給昆汀·麥克米倫。請繼續。

Thanks very much, and good morning. Today's remarks may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and are based on management's current expectations. AIG's filings with the SEC provide details on important factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially. Except as required by applicable securities laws, AIG is under no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, circumstances or management's estimates or opinions should change.

非常感謝，早安。今天的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性。這些陳述不是對未來績效或事件的保證，而是基於管理階層目前的預期。 AIG 向 SEC 提交的文件提供了可能導致實際結果或事件出現重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。除適用的證券法要求外，AIG 沒有義務更新任何前瞻性聲明、情況或管理層的估計或意見應發生變化。

Today's remarks may also refer to non-GAAP financial measures. The reconciliation of such measures to the most comparable GAAP figures is included in our earnings release, financial supplement and earnings presentation, all of which are available on our website at aig.com.

今天的言論也可能涉及非公認會計準則財務指標。這些指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 數據的調整包含在我們的收益發布、財務補充和收益演示中，所有這些都可以在我們的網站 aig.com 上找到。

Additionally, note that today's remarks will include results of AIG's Life and Retirement segment and other operations on the same basis as prior quarters, which is how we expect to continue to report until the deconsolidation of Corebridge Financial. AIG's segments and U.S. GAAP financial results as well as AIG's key financial metrics with respect thereto differ from those reported by Corebridge Financial. Corebridge Financial will host its earnings call on Thursday, February 15.

此外，請注意，今天的評論將包括 AIG 的人壽和退休部門以及其他業務的業績，其基礎與前幾季相同，這也是我們預計在 Corebridge Financial 分拆之前繼續報告的方式。 AIG 的部門和美國公認會計準則財務表現以及 AIG 的相關關鍵財務指標與 Corebridge Financial 報告的數據不同。 Corebridge Financial 將於 2 月 15 日星期四召開財報電話會議。

Finally, today's remarks, as they relate to net premiums written in General Insurance, are presented on a comparable basis, which reflects year-over-year comparison on a constant dollar basis adjusted for the international lag elimination, the sale of Crop Risk Services and the sale of Validus Re. Please refer to the footnote on Page 26 of the fourth quarter financial supplement for prior period results for the Crop business and Validus Re.

最後，今天的評論涉及普通保險的淨保費，是在可比基礎上提出的，反映了按固定美元計算的同比比較，並根據國際滯後消除、農作物風險服務的銷售和出售 Validus Re。有關農作物業務和 Validus Re 的前期業績，請參閱第四季度財務補充資料第 26 頁的註腳。

With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Peter Zaffino.

現在，我想將電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Peter Zaffino。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to review our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results. Following my remarks, Sabra will provide more detail on the quarter and some perspective on the year, and then we'll take questions. Kevin Hogan and David McElroy will join us for the Q&A portion of the call.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們回顧我們第四季和 2023 年全年的財務表現。在我的發言之後，薩布拉將提供有關本季度的更多詳細資訊以及對今年的一些看法，然後我們將回答問題。凱文霍根 (Kevin Hogan) 和大衛麥克埃爾羅伊 (David McElroy) 將參加我們電話會議的問答部分。

We had a very strong fourth quarter, which highlighted a significant year of achievements at AIG. Throughout 2023, we continue to build on our underwriting excellence; repositioned the portfolio through several divestitures; made meaningful progress towards the deconsolidation of Corebridge, including 3 secondary sell-downs; delivered disciplined premium growth in businesses where we have scale and outstanding combined ratios; and continue to execute on our balanced capital management strategy. I'm very proud of the work our colleagues delivered for all of our stakeholders throughout the entire year.

我們第四季的表現非常強勁，突顯了 AIG 這一年的重要成就。 2023 年，我們將持續打造卓越的核保服務；透過多次資產剝離重新定位投資組合；在 Corebridge 的分割方面取得了有意義的進展，包括 3 次二級出售；在我們擁有規模和出色的綜合比率的業務中實現了嚴格的保費增長；並繼續執行我們的平衡資本管理策略。我對我們的同事全年為所有利益相關者所做的工作感到非常自豪。

In the fourth quarter, adjusted after-tax income per diluted common share was $1.79, an increase of 29% year-over-year driven by continued strong underwriting results, 17% growth in net investment income and excellent execution of our balanced capital management strategy that resulted in a 6% reduction in diluted common shares outstanding. For the full year 2023, adjusted after-tax income per diluted common share was $6.79, an increase of 33% over 2022. AIG overall produced an adjusted return on common equity of 9% for the year, up from 7% in 2022. As I will share with you today, 2023 was an extraordinary year for AIG.

第四季度，調整後每股攤薄普通股稅後收入為 1.79 美元，同比增長 29%，這得益於持續強勁的承保業績、淨投資收入增長 17% 以及平衡資本管理策略的出色執行這導致稀釋後的已發行普通股減少6%。 2023 年全年，調整後每股稀釋普通股稅後收入為 6.79 美元，比 2022 年增長 33%。AIG 全年調整後普通股回報率為 9%，高於 2022 年的 7%。今天我要跟大家分享的是，2023年對AIG來說是不平凡的一年。

During my remarks this morning, I'll discuss the following topics. First, I will provide an overview of our fourth quarter financial results. Second, I will review AIG's significant accomplishments in 2023, including our strategic repositioning and our financial highlights. Sabra will comment on the Life Retirement business in her prepared remarks. Third, I will cover insights on the January 1 reinsurance market and specifically AIG's reinsurance renewals. And finally, I'll share some thoughts on how we're building on our momentum and positioning the company as we enter 2024, including some specifics on AIG Next, our initiative focused on creating the AIG of the future. I will also discuss our capital management strategy and growth expectations.

在今天上午的演講中，我將討論以下主題。首先，我將概述我們第四季的財務表現。其次，我將回顧 AIG 在 2023 年取得的重大成就，包括我們的策略重新定位和財務亮點。薩布拉將在她準備好的演講中評論終身退休業務。第三，我將介紹 1 月 1 日再保險市場的見解，特別是 AIG 的再保險續保。最後，我將分享一些關於我們在進入 2024 年時如何增強勢頭和定位公司的想法，包括 AIG Next 的一些具體細節，我們的計劃專注於創建未來的 AIG。我還將討論我們的資本管理策略和成長預期。

AIG's strong fourth quarter results demonstrated our continued execution across all aspects of our strategy. Within General Insurance, underwriting income was $642 million. Gross premiums written for the fourth quarter were $7.6 billion, an increase of 4% from the prior year quarter. Net premiums written for the quarter increased by 7% from the prior year quarter to $5.7 billion. Global Commercial grew 5%, and Global Personal grew 9% from the prior year quarter. If you exclude Financial Lines, Global Commercial would have grown 11%.

AIG 強勁的第四季業績證明了我們在策略的各個方面的持續執行。一般保險的承保收入為 6.42 億美元。第四季毛保費為 76 億美元，比去年同期成長 4%。本季淨承保保費較去年同期成長 7%，達到 57 億美元。全球商業業務較去年同期成長 5%，全球個人業務較去年同期成長 9%。如果排除金融業務，全球商業業務將成長 11%。

In North America Commercial, fourth quarter net premiums written grew 5% over the prior year quarter led by Retail Property, which grew 32%; Lexington, which grew 20%. These were offset by North America Financial Lines, which was lower by 13%. In International Commercial, fourth quarter net premiums written grew 6% over the prior year quarter as International Property grew 28% and Talbot grew 12%. These were offset by International Financial Lines, which was lower by 7%.

在北美商業領域，第四季淨承保保費比去年同期成長 5%，其中零售房地產成長 32%；列剋星敦，成長了 20%。這些被北美金融線 (North America Financial Lines) 所抵消，該線下降了 13%。在國際商業領域，第四季淨承保保費比去年同期成長 6%，其中國際房地產成長 28%，塔爾博特成長 12%。這些被國際金融額度所抵消，國際金融額度下降了 7%。

In the fourth quarter, Global Commercial had very strong renewal retention of 86% in its in-force portfolio as well as very strong new business performance. North America Commercial produced new business of $503 million in the quarter, an increase of 21% year-over-year. The growth was led by Retail Casualty, Lexington and Retail Property. International Commercial produced new business of $467 million for the quarter, representing an increase of 14% year-over-year. This growth was led by Global Specialty and Talbot.

第四季度，Global Commercial 的有效投資組合續約保留率非常高，高達 86%，新業務表現也非常強勁。北美商業本季創造了 5.03 億美元的新業務，年增 21%。零售傷亡險、列剋星敦和零售房地產引領了這一增長。國際商業本季創造了 4.67 億美元的新業務，年增 14%。這一增長由 Global Specialty 和 Talbot 引領。

Moving to rate. In North America Commercial, overall rate increased 4% in the fourth quarter with exposure adding 3 points, and the overall pricing was up 7%. In North America Commercial, if you include Financial Lines and workers' compensation, overall rate would have increased 11% in the quarter. And with exposure adding 4 points, overall pricing would have been 15%, meaningfully above the loss cost trend.

轉向評分。北美商業不動產第四季整體費率上漲 4%，曝光度增加 3 個百分點，整體定價上漲 7%。在北美商業領域，如果算上財務險種和工人賠償，該季度的總體比率將增加 11%。如果風險敞口增加 4 個點，整體定價將達到 15%，明顯高於損失成本趨勢。

North America Commercial rate increases were driven by Lexington wholesale, which was up 17%; Retail Property, which was up 19%; and Excess Casualty, which was up 13%. In International Commercial, overall rate increased 3% in the fourth quarter with exposure adding 2 points, and the overall pricing was up 5%, which is slightly below loss cost trend. The rate increase was driven by Property, which was up 12% and marine, which was up 8%.

北美商業利率上漲是由列剋星敦批發市場帶動的，上漲了 17%；零售物業成長 19%；和超額傷亡，增加了 13%。國際商業方面，第四季整體費率上漲3%，曝險增加2個百分點，整體定價上漲5%，略低於損失成本趨勢。利率上漲的推動因素是房地產（上漲 12%）和海運（上漲 8%）。

Turning to Personal Insurance. Fourth quarter net premiums written increased 9% from the prior year quarter, primarily driven by North America. In North America Personal, net premiums written increased 37% in the quarter. As we've seen in prior quarters in 2023, the significant premium growth for North America Personal was driven by our high net worth business. And as we discussed in prior quarters, the growth in North America earned premium continued to generate a lower expense ratio, and we expect the expense ratio will continue to improve in 2024.

轉向個人保險。第四季淨承保保費較去年同期成長 9%，這主要是由北美地區推動的。在北美個人業務，本季淨承保保費成長了 37%。正如我們在 2023 年頭幾季所看到的，北美個人保費的顯著成長是由我們的高淨值業務推動的。正如我們在前幾個季度所討論的，北美保費成長繼續導致費用率下降，我們預計費用率將在 2024 年繼續改善。

Now let me turn to the full year financial results. 2023 was another year of meaningful strategic repositioning and was, in many ways, our best year yet. The repositioning included the disposition of Validus Re and Crop Risk Services, which generated a combined $3.5 billion of proceeds, including a pre-close dividend.

現在讓我談談全年財務表現。 2023 年是有意義的策略重新定位的另一年，從許多方面來說，都是我們迄今為止最好的一年。重新定位包括處置 Validus Re 和 Crop Risk Services，這兩項業務總共產生了 35 億美元的收益，其中包括收盤前股息。

Additionally, we settled a $1 billion intercompany loan from Validus Re to AIG and received approximately $250 million of RenaissanceRe common stock. The changes to our portfolio further reduced volatility and allowed us to focus on businesses where we believe we have better opportunities for stronger risk-adjusted returns.

此外，我們還清了 Validus Re 向 AIG 提供的 10 億美元公司間貸款，並獲得了約 2.5 億美元的 RenaissanceRe 普通股。我們投資組合的變化進一步降低了波動性，使我們能夠專注於我們認為有更好機會獲得更強風險調整回報的業務。

We reshaped the reinsurance structure of our high net worth business and launched a newly formed MGA called Private Client Select. We made significant progress towards Corebridge's separation, another major strategic milestone on our journey to becoming a less complex company.

我們重塑了高淨值業務的再保險結構，並推出了新成立的 MGA，稱為 Private Client Select。我們在 Corebridge 的分離方面取得了重大進展，這是我們成為一家不太複雜的公司過程中的另一個重要策略里程碑。

We completed 3 secondary offerings in 2023 that generated approximately $2.9 billion in cash, we worked with Corebridge on the divestiture of Laya Healthcare and announced the sale of the U.K. Life business. In 2023, AIG received $1.4 billion of capital from Corebridge through $385 million of regular dividends, $688 million of special dividends and $315 million of share repurchases. At the end of 2023, our ownership stake in Corebridge was approximately 52%.

我們在 2023 年完成了 3 次二次發行，產生了約 29 億美元的現金，我們與 Corebridge 合作剝離了 Laya Healthcare，並宣佈出售英國人壽業務。 2023年，AIG透過3.85億美元的定期股息、6.88億美元的特別股息和3.15億美元的股票回購從Corebridge獲得了14億美元的資本。截至2023年底，我們在Corebridge的持股比例約為52%。

In 2023, we continue to execute on a thoughtful and balanced capital management strategy. During the year, AIG returned $4 billion of capital to shareholders through $3 billion of share repurchases and $1 billion of dividends. We reduced our common shares outstanding by 6% and increased quarterly dividends by 12.5%.

2023年，我們持續執行深思熟慮、平衡的資本管理策略。年內，AIG 透過 30 億美元的股票回購和 10 億美元的股息向股東返還 40 億美元的資本。我們將已發行普通股減少了 6%，並將季度股利增加了 12.5%。

On August 1, the AIG Board of Directors increased our share buyback authorization of $7.5 billion. At the year-end 2023, we had $6.2 billion remaining on that authorization. We reduced AIG net debt by $1.4 billion in 2023 after successfully conducting a senior notes tender offer in November. We finished 2023 with very strong parent liquidity of $7.6 billion, which gives us ample capacity to continue executing on our capital management priorities.

8 月 1 日，AIG 董事會將我們的股票回購授權增加了 75 億美元。截至 2023 年底，我們的授權餘額為 62 億美元。在 11 月成功進行優先票據要約收購後，我們在 2023 年將 AIG 淨債務減少了 14 億美元。 2023 年結束時，我們的母公司流動性非常強勁，達到 76 億美元，這使我們有足夠的能力繼續執行我們的資本管理優先事項。

Turning to the full year results for General Insurance. Throughout 2023, we delivered terrific financial performance. General Insurance full year underwriting income was $2.3 billion, a 15% increase year-over-year. For the full year, the General Insurance accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, was 87.7%, an improvement of 100 basis points year-over-year.

轉向普通保險的全年業績。 2023 年全年，我們取得了出色的財務表現。普通保險全年承保收入為23億美元，較去年同期成長15%。全年普通保險事故年度綜合成本率（不包括巨災）為87.7%，較去年同期增加100個基點。

Global Commercial achieved an accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, of 83.3% for the full year, an improvement of 120 basis points year-over-year driven by loss ratio improvement. The calendar year combined ratio was 87.1%, a 250 basis point improvement year-over-year.

全球商業公司全年的事故年綜合成本率（不包括災難）為 83.3%，由於損失率改善，年比提高了 120 個基點。歷年綜合成本率為 87.1%，年增 250 個基點。

Excluding Validus Re and Crop Risk Services for the full year results, the Global Commercial accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, would have increased by 50 basis points to 83.8%, and the calendar year combined ratio would have increased by slightly over 20 basis points to 87.3%.

排除 Validus Re 和 Crop Risk Services 的全年業績，全球商業事故年綜合成本率（不包括災難）將增加 50 個基點，達到 83.8%，歷年綜合成本率將增加略高於 20 個基點至 87.3%。

In Global Personal, the full year accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, was 99.3%, in line with the prior year. For the full year, General Insurance grew net premiums written by 7% year-over-year, driven by 5% growth in Global Commercial and 10% in Personal Insurance. North America Commercial grew 5% and International Commercial grew 6% year-over-year.

在全球個人業務中，全年事故年綜合比率（不包括災難）為 99.3%，與前一年持平。全年，在全球商業保險 5% 成長和個人保險成長 10% 的推動下，普通保險淨承保保費年增 7%。北美商業年增 5%，國際商業年增 6%。

A couple of highlights. Lexington and Global Specialty had outstanding years. We remain very focused on these businesses and made investments to accelerate growth and continue to deliver strong underwriting profitability.

有幾個亮點。列剋星敦和全球專業公司度過了輝煌的歲月。我們仍然非常關注這些業務，並進行投資以加速成長並繼續提供強勁的承保獲利能力。

Lexington grew its net premiums written by 17% year-over-year. Growth was driven by historically high retention, which was 80%, $1 billion of new business and rate increases of approximately 18%.

列剋星敦的淨承保保費年增 17%。成長的推動因素是歷史上高達 80% 的留存率、價值 10 億美元的新業務以及約 18% 的成長率。

Global Specialty, which includes businesses in marine, energy, trade credit and aviation, grew its net premiums written 10% year-over-year driven by 88% retention, almost $750 million of new business and rate increases of 7% for the year.

Global Specialty 業務包括海事、能源、貿易信貸和航空業務，受 88% 的保費保留率、近 7.5 億美元的新業務以及全年費率增長 7% 的推動，其淨承保保費同比增長 10%。

Also, there are 2 parts of our business that impacted growth in Global Commercial, which I would like to offer some perspective. First, if you exclude Financial Lines, our net premiums written growth would have been 10%.

此外，我們的業務有兩個部分影響了全球商業的成長，我想提供一些觀點。首先，如果排除金融險業務，我們的淨保費成長率將為 10%。

Second, as we've outlined on prior calls, we decided to not renew 2 programs that had significant property catastrophe exposure that no longer met our underwriting guidelines. We do not believe that the premium increases on a risk-adjusted basis for these 2 programs delivered an acceptable return. The decision to nonrenew impacted the gross and net premiums written for Lexington specifically as well as the Global Commercial business throughout 2023. If you exclude Financial Lines and these 2 programs that I just mentioned, our year-over-year net premiums written growth would have been 13%, which gives you a sense as to why we have significant confidence in our core portfolio where we saw meaningful overall growth for the year.

其次，正如我們在先前的電話會議中概述的那樣，我們決定不再續簽兩個具有重大財產災難風險且不再符合我們承保準則的計劃。我們認為，在風險調整的基礎上增加這兩個計劃的保費並不能帶來可接受的回報。不續保的決定影響了列剋星敦的毛保費和淨保費，特別是整個 2023 年的全球商業業務。如果排除金融保險和我剛才提到的這兩個計劃，我們的淨保費保費同比增長將13%，這讓您明白為什麼我們對我們的核心投資組合充滿信心，我們在今年看到了有意義的整體成長。

It's worth providing a little bit more detail on Financial Lines. In Financial Lines, particularly in our public directors and officers book of business, we continue to exercise underwriting discipline by maintaining our primary position in our portfolio to being very prudent on large account excess layers, where there is significant exposure to vertical loss, and these layers are highly commoditized where typically the best price wins.

值得提供更多有關財務線的詳細資訊。在金融業務中，特別是在我們的公共董事和高級管理人員業務中，我們繼續遵守承保紀律，保持我們在投資組合中的主要地位，對大帳戶過剩層保持非常謹慎的態度，這些層存在重大的垂直損失風險，而這些圖層高度商品化，通常最優惠的價格會獲勝。

We've spoken about the cumulative rate change in Financial Lines before, but I want to provide a little bit more detail. The compound annual growth rate for Financial Lines achieved from 2019 through 2023 was 49%. If you exclude 2023, the compound annual growth rate was 63%. It's a business we're very focused on and our underwriters are continuing to carefully monitor market conditions and underwrite conservatively.

我們之前已經討論過金融線的累積利率變化，但我想提供更多細節。 2019年至2023年，金融業務的複合年增長率為49%。若排除2023年，複合年增長率為63%。這是我們非常關注的業務，我們的承銷商將繼續仔細監控市場狀況並保守承保。

Now I'd like to provide you with some insight into the current reinsurance market generally and an overview of our January 1 reinsurance renewals. As I mentioned on previous calls, AIG's reinsurance purchasing is deliberately weighted to January 1, which enables us to strategically optimize the outcome across our reinsurance placements and provides us with clarity on our cost of reinsurance at the beginning of the year.

現在我想向您介紹一下目前再保險市場的整體情況以及我們 1 月 1 日再保險續保的概述。正如我在先前的電話會議中提到的，AIG 的再保險採購故意以 1 月 1 日為重點，這使我們能夠策略性地優化再保險投放的結果，並讓我們清楚地了解年初的再保險成本。

Before I go into detail on this year's outcomes, I want to speak about how we evaluate our reinsurance purchased. We've seen significant changes in the global property market over the last 2 years, and analyzing and quantifying changes and the portfolio's risk profile has become increasingly complex.

在詳細介紹今年的結果之前，我想先談談我們如何評估所購買的再保險。過去兩年，我們看到全球房地產市場發生了重大變化，分析和量化變化以及投資組合的風險狀況變得越來越複雜。

Currently, one of the most overused phrases that has been used with more frequency in the last year is risk-adjusted pricing or risk-adjusted rate changes, which have multiple interpretations, particularly when it comes to property treaty reinsurance. Calculating the risk-adjusted rate change can be complicated and is often inconsistent. I want to outline how AIG determines risk-adjusted pricing changes, which we believe is an industry-best practice.

目前，去年最頻繁使用的最過度使用的短語之一是風險調整定價或風險調整利率變化，它們有多種解釋，特別是在財產條約再保險方面。計算風險調整後的利率變化可能很複雜，而且常常不一致。我想概述 AIG 如何確定風險調整後的定價變化，我們認為這是行業最佳實踐。

To begin, you must determine the baseline structure and all the variables required to assess and quantify the risk-adjusted pricing change. To do that, the base analysis should be set at the identical structure and coverage with the exact terms and conditions of the prior year structure. The analysis needs to compare the cost of capital year-over-year and any model changes from vendor model output such as RMS to determine if the loss costs have increased or decreased at the attachment point and the vertical limits deployed.

首先，您必須確定基準結構以及評估和量化風險調整定價變化所需的所有變數。為此，基礎分析應設定為與上一年結構相同的結構和覆蓋範圍，並具有確切的條款和條件。此分析需要逐年比較資本成本以及供應商模型輸出（例如 RMS）的任何模型變化，以確定附著點和部署的垂直限制處的損失成本是否增加或減少。

Also, an analysis is needed for any changes to the coverage provided in the treaty placement. For instance, over the last few years, many programs have gone from an all-risk coverage basis to a named or peak peril basis.

此外，還需要對條約安排中提供的承保範圍的任何變更進行分析。例如，在過去幾年中，許多計劃已從全險承保基礎轉向指定風險或峰值風險基礎。

To correctly calculate the risk-adjusted rate change, perils no longer covered need to be analyzed and priced separately and the impact of any reduced coverage should be factored into the assessment of the price change. This can be particularly difficult when assessing perils that would not be economically viable to place on a standalone basis with significant limits, which could include wildfire, flood or terrorism. There needs to be consideration given to the volatility associated with the expected loss in calculating the risk-adjusted rate change.

為了正確計算風險調整後的利率變化，需要對不再承保的風險進行單獨分析和定價，並且在評估價格變化時應考慮承保範圍減少的影響。當評估在經濟上不可行且具有重大限制的獨立風險（可能包括野火、洪水或恐怖主義）時，這可能尤其困難。在計算風險調整利率變化時需要考慮與預期損失相關的波動性。

Given the complexity of these calculations, the methodologies applied should be done with consistency and discipline. When applying the methodology I just described, AIG had a tremendous outcome with our reinsurance partners at the January 1 renewal season, building upon the very strong result achieved in a very challenging market in 2023.

考慮到這些計算的複雜性，所採用的方法應該保持一致性和紀律性。在應用我剛才描述的方法時，AIG 與我們的再保險合作夥伴在 1 月 1 日續保季節取得了巨大成果，基礎是在 2023 年極具挑戰性的市場中取得的非常強勁的成果。

Now let me turn to AIG's reinsurance renewals at January 1 of this year. To level set, the natural catastrophe insured loss activity remained at the forefront of the market with a record-setting 37 events in 2023 that exceed $1 billion of insured loss. These events contributed to a total annual insured loss currently estimated at over $100 billion, marking the sixth time in the past 7 years that insured loss from natural catastrophes has exceeded $100 billion. Over the last 7 years, there's been nearly $1 trillion of aggregate losses with over 60% driven by secondary perils.

現在讓我談談 AIG 今年 1 月 1 日的再保險續保情況。總體而言，天災保險損失活動仍處於市場前列，2023 年發生了創紀錄的 37 起天災保險損失超過 10 億美元的事件。這些事件造成的年度保險損失目前估計超過 1,000 億美元，這是過去 7 年來自然災害造成的保險損失第六次超過 1,000 億美元。過去 7 年中，總損失接近 1 兆美元，其中超過 60% 是由次生災害造成的。

The headline is that we were able to significantly improve our property cat structure and reinsurance coverage provided. When you review what we purchased last year, including for Validus Re, the overall spend has reduced by approximately $200 million and our core property treaties, excluding Validus Re, have slightly lower ceded premium year-over-year.

標題是我們能夠顯著改善我們的財產貓結構和提供的再保險範圍。當您回顧我們去年購買的資產（包括 Validus Re）時，總體支出減少了約 2 億美元，而且我們的核心財產條約（不包括 Validus Re）的分讓保費同比略低。

Let's start with our property catastrophe placements. Our core commercial North America retention of $500 million remained unchanged for the second straight year. The attachment on our dedicated Lexington occurrence tower was unchanged at $300 million. In both cases, the model [detachment] point is lower, and the exhaust limit is higher.

讓我們從財產災難安置開始。我們在北美的核心商業保留額為 5 億美元，連續第二年保持不變。我們專用的列剋星敦發生塔的附加費保持不變，為 3 億美元。在這兩種情況下，模型[脫離]點較低，排氣極限較高。

Our International Property cat per current structures renewed with a reduced retention in Japan to $150 million, a $50 million improvement from the prior year. The rest of the world attachment remains unchanged at $125 million.

我們的國際財產貓按照現有結構更新，日本保留金減少至 1.5 億美元，比前一年增加了 5,000 萬美元。世界其他地區的附加費保持不變，為 1.25 億美元。

We were very pleased to have achieved broader coverage across all of our core occurrence towers. With nominal attachment points unchanged, or in the case of Japan decreasing, the model probability of attaching our cat reinsurance improved with respect to key perils and across every major territory following the growth achieved in the property portfolio in 2023.

我們非常高興能夠在我們所有的核心事件塔中實現更廣泛的覆蓋範圍。在名目附加點不變的情況下，或在日本減少的情況下，隨著 2023 年房地產投資組合實現成長，在關鍵風險和每個主要地區附加巨災再保險的模型機率均有所改善。

Our property cat aggregate cover was also successfully renewed with improved coverage, further reducing our volatility from frequency of loss. The aggregate now includes a standalone supplement dedicated to losses in North America arising from secondary perils. Importantly, it also now covers contributing losses from our high net worth portfolio.

我們的房地產巨災總承保範圍也成功更新，覆蓋範圍有所改善，進一步減少了損失頻率造成的波動。現在，該總額包括一項獨立的補充，專門用於彌補北美地區因次生災害造成的損失。重要的是，它現在也涵蓋了我們高淨值投資組合的貢獻損失。

Our annual aggregate deductible for North America is $825 million. The North America other perils deductible is $350 million, which is a new deductible. And Japan and the rest of the world deductibles are $200 million and $175 million, respectively. These are subject to each and every loss deductibles of $20 million other than for North America wind and earthquake, which are at $50 million.

我們北美地區的年度免賠額總額為 8.25 億美元。北美其他風險免賠額為 3.5 億美元，這是一項新的免賠額。日本和世界其他地區的免賠額分別為 2 億美元和 1.75 億美元。除北美風災和地震損失為 5,000 萬美元外，這些損失的免賠額為 2,000 萬美元。

Our return period attachment point is lower year-over-year. For all of our major proportional treaties across a range of classes, we improved or maintained our ceding commission levels, reflecting our market-leading underwriting expertise and position in the market.

我們的報酬期附著點較去年同期較低。對於我們一系列類別的所有主要比例條約，我們提高或維持了我們的讓出佣金水平，反映了我們市場領先的承保專業知識和市場地位。

Turning to casualty. The challenges we've spoken about previously regarding the impact of inflation, both social and economic and litigation funding in the U.S. were a focal point for reinsurers at 1/1.

轉向傷亡。我們之前談到的有關美國通貨膨脹、社會和經濟以及訴訟資金影響的挑戰是 1/1 再保險公司的焦點。

For casualty at AIG, we remain very focused on our underwriting standards and the positioning of the portfolio. Our team has done a terrific job of reunderwriting the entire business, particularly considering the amount of work that was needed to reposition it to where it is today.

對於 AIG 的傷亡險，我們仍然非常關注我們的承保標準和投資組合的定位。我們的團隊在重新承保整個業務方面做得非常出色，特別是考慮到將其重新定位到今天的位置所需的工作量。

Additionally, our pricing assumptions today have loss trends ranging from the high single digits to over 10%. These were increased over the past 2 years, given inflationary dynamics.

此外，我們今天的定價假設存在損失趨勢，從高個位數到超過 10%。鑑於通膨動態，這些金額在過去兩年有所增加。

I do want to make a few comments about the last 10 years of casualty results for the industry. The industry as a whole has reported meaningful reserve releases in 4 of the past 10 calendar years, including in calendar year 2017. At the same time, there have been 6 years of significant reported industry strengthening in the last 10 calendar years, including in all of the most recent 5 calendar years.

我確實想就該行業過去 10 年的傷亡結果發表一些評論。整個行業在過去 10 個日曆年中，有 4 年（包括 2017 年）報告了有意義的儲備釋放。同時，在過去 10 個日曆年中，有 6 年報告稱行業顯著增強，包括在所有年份最近5 個日曆年。

Focusing on AIG, for accident years 2016 through 2019, our initial loss picks in our Casualty lines, excluding workers' compensation, averaged 78%. Looking specifically at accident years 2016 and '17, the initial loss picks were approximately 81% in both years. These loss picks exclude unallocated loss adjustment expense.

以 AIG 為例，在 2016 年至 2019 年的事故年度中，我們傷亡險項目的初始損失（不包括工人賠償）平均為 78%。具體來看 2016 年和 17 年的事故年份，這兩年的初始損失率約為 81%。這些損失選擇不包括未分配的損失調整費用。

We significantly strengthened the reserves by over $1 billion for accident years 2016 through 2019, which revised our year-end ultimate loss picks to 91% in 2016 and 96% in 2017 at an average of 87% over accident years 2016 through 2019. To further analyze our casualty results compared to industry results for other liability and commercial auto using the most recent Schedule P data, they are well above the average industry loss picks on both measures.

我們將2016 年至2019 年事故年的準備金大幅增加了超過10 億美元，這將我們的年終最終損失選擇修正為2016 年的91% 和2017 年的96%，2016 年至2019 年事故年的平均損失率為87%。使用最新的附表 P 數據，將我們的傷亡結果與其他責任和商用汽車的行業結果進行比較，發現它們在這兩項指標上都遠高於行業平均損失。

Our initial and year-end ultimates for both lines are roughly 10 to 20 points higher than the overall industry average. In addition, we have reinsurance in place for 2016 and 2017 to mitigate our gross results. As we outlined last quarter, we put a comprehensive reinsurance treaty in place starting 2018 that provides us with substantial amount of vertical protection.

我們兩條線路的初始和年終最終結果大約比整個產業平均高 10 到 20 個點。此外，我們也為 2016 年和 2017 年提供了再保險，以減輕我們的整體表現。正如我們上季度概述的那樣，我們從 2018 年開始製定了一項全面的再保險條約，為我們提供了大量的縱向保護。

Our renewal of the casualty reinsurance protections allowed us to maintain the same net retained lines with no impact on ceding commissions, which is an outstanding outcome. At January 1, our reinsurance partners maintained their significant support of AIG with consistent capacity and improved reinsurance terms that demonstrate a clear recognition of the quality of our portfolio and our underwriting teams.

我們更新傷亡再保險保障使我們能夠保持相同的淨保留額度，而不會影響分出佣金，這是一個出色的結果。截至 1 月 1 日，我們的再保險合作夥伴以一致的能力和改進的再保險條款繼續對 AIG 提供大力支持，這表明我們的投資組合和承保團隊的品質得到了明確認可。

I'll now turn to discuss our efforts to create a future state business structure for AIG post deconsolidation of Corebridge. As part of this effort, we've launched a new program, AIG Next, to create a company that's leaner, less complex and more effective with the appropriate infrastructure and capabilities for the size of business we will be post deconsolidation.

現在我將討論我們在 Corebridge 分拆後為 AIG 創建未來國有業務結構所做的努力。作為這項工作的一部分，我們啟動了一項新計劃 AIG Next，旨在創建一家更精簡、更簡單、更有效率的公司，並擁有適合我們將在拆分後的業務規模的基礎設施和能力。

AIG Next will focus on the following key principles: driving global consistency and local relevancy across our end-to-end processes to improve operational efficiency and effectiveness, reducing organizational complexity to create a better and differentiated experience for our clients and colleagues, creating an agile and scalable organization to support business growth, optimizing our ecosystem to modernize our data analytics, digital and technology capabilities, clarifying roles' responsibilities while eliminating duplication and increasing our speed of execution.

AIG Next 將重點放在以下關鍵原則：在我們的端到端流程中推動全球一致性和本地相關性，以提高營運效率和效益，降低組織複雜性，為我們的客戶和同事創造更好和差異化的體驗，創建敏捷的和可擴展的組織來支持業務成長，優化我們的生態系統以實現數據分析、數字和技術能力的現代化，明確角色的職責，同時消除重複並提高我們的執行速度。

As we've stated in the past, we expect the simplification and efficiencies created through this program to generate $500 million of sustained annual run rate savings and to incur approximately $500 million of onetime spend to achieve these savings. As part of AIG Next, we are creating a leaner parent company with a target cost structure of 1% to 1.5% of net premiums earned. Some of the current costs and other operations will be eliminated contributing to the $500 million savings, and others will be moved into the business where the service is utilized.

正如我們過去所說，我們預計透過該計劃實現的簡化和效率將持續節省 5 億美元的年度運行率，並為實現這些節省而產生約 5 億美元的一次性支出。作為 AIG Next 的一部分，我們正在創建一個更精簡的母公司，目標成本結構為淨保費的 1% 至 1.5%。目前的一些成本和其他業務將被消除，從而節省 5 億美元，而其他業務將轉移到使用該服務的業務中。

In 2023, we began this work, as we've moved approximately $140 million of expenses from other operations into General Insurance for services that are more closely aligned to our business operations. Even with this shift, the full year combined ratio of 90.6% improved 130 basis points year-over-year, and the full year GOE ratio only increased 40 basis points due to offsetting savings within General Insurance.

2023 年，我們開始了這項工作，因為我們已將約 1.4 億美元的費用從其他業務轉移到普通保險，以提供與我們的業務運營更密切相關的服務。即使發生這種轉變，全年綜合成本率為 90.6%，年比提高了 130 個基點，而全年 GOE 比率僅增加了 40 個基點，原因是抵消了普通保險內部的節省。

Throughout the year, we've built efficiencies into our business, which have allowed general insurers to absorb these costs. We've already begun to make meaningful progress against our $500 million savings target and have established a team to drive and govern the AIG Next program with focus and discipline.

在這一年中，我們提高了業務效率，這使得普通保險公司能夠吸收這些成本。我們已經開始在實現 5 億美元節省目標方面取得有意義的進展，並建立了一個團隊，以重點和紀律來推動和管理 AIG Next 計劃。

Sabra and I will provide more detail on next quarter's call regarding the specific cost to achieve by category and the expected timeline for the realized benefits in 2024 and 2025. As we are approaching the final steps of the Corebridge deconsolidation, we remain agile and continue to explore all options based on market conditions with respect to our remaining ownership of Corebridge, always focusing on what's aligned with the best interest of our stakeholders.

Sabra 和我將在下個季度的電話會議上提供更多詳細信息，內容涉及按類別實現的具體成本以及2024 年和2025 年實現效益的預期時間表。隨著我們接近Corebridge 拆分的最後步驟，我們保持敏捷並繼續根據我們對 Corebridge 剩餘所有權的市場狀況探索所有選擇，並始終專注於符合利害關係人最佳利益的事情。

Sabra will take you through a pro forma capital structure based on assumptions about the deconsolidation. Throughout 2024, we expect to continue to execute the capital management strategy we've outlined before. Our insurance company subsidiaries continue to have excess capital to support the type of organic growth we have seen through 2023 and would expect to see in the future. We made enormous progress on our debt structure and maturities. Since year-end 2021, we've reduced over 50% of AIG's debt outstanding, which is over $11 billion of debt reduction.

Sabra 將帶您了解基於分拆假設的預期資本結構。在整個 2024 年，我們預計將繼續執行我們先前概述的資本管理策略。我們的保險公司子公司繼續擁有過剩資本，以支持我們在 2023 年之前看到並預計在未來看到的有機成長。我們在債務結構和期限方面取得了巨大進展。自 2021 年底以來，我們已減少了 AIG 未償債務的 50% 以上，債務減少額超過 110 億美元。

The primary focus in 2024 will be on returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Since the start of 2024, we have repurchased an additional $760 million of common shares. We expect to continue at this pace for the first half of 2024, subject to market conditions, which should bring us near the high end of our target share count range.

2024 年的主要重點將是透過股票回購和股利向股東返還資本。自 2024 年初以來，我們已額外回購了 7.6 億美元的普通股。我們預計，根據市場狀況，2024 年上半年將繼續保持這一速度，這將使我們接近目標股票數量範圍的高端。

Post Corebridge deconsolidation, we should achieve the low end of our range, which is approximately 600 million of common shares. The AIG Board increased the dividend in 2023, reflecting our confidence in the future earnings power of AIG, and we will continue to evaluate our dividend policy in 2024.

Corebridge 解散後，我們應該達到範圍的低端，即大約 6 億股普通股。 AIG董事會提高了2023年的股息，反映了我們對AIG未來獲利能力的信心，我們將在2024年繼續評估我們的股利政策。

And lastly, as I enter my seventh year at AIG, I've never been more optimistic about our opportunities for growth and the momentum that AIG has entering 2024. We now have a terrific business. Global Commercial, which we've been working on for years to reposition, is now one of the most respected portfolios in the industry.

最後，當我進入 AIG 的第七年時，我對我們的成長機會以及 AIG 進入 2024 年的勢頭感到前所未有的樂觀。我們現在擁有出色的業務。全球商業多年來一直致力於重新定位，現已成為業界最受尊敬的投資組合之一。

While there's always pruning to do in any business, the remediation is now behind us. We're well positioned to grow based on AIG's strong retention, strong opportunities for new business, excellent combined ratios and a company that has been able to distinguish itself amongst our clients and distribution partners.

儘管任何企業都需要修剪，但補救措施現在已經成為過去。基於 AIG 強大的保留能力、強大的新業務機會、出色的綜合比率以及一家能夠在我們的客戶和分銷合作夥伴中脫穎而出的公司，我們處於有利的發展位置。

In Personal Insurance, we will continue to make investments, particularly in our Japan business, our global A&H business and our high net worth business where we anticipate continued growth and more importantly, profitability improvement.

在個人保險方面，我們將繼續進行投資，特別是我們的日本業務、全球 A&H 業務以及高淨值業務，我們預計這些業務將持續成長，更重要的是獲利能力的提高。

With that, I will turn the call over to Sabra.

這樣，我會將電話轉給 Sabra。

Thank you, Peter. This morning, I will provide more detail on AIG's fourth quarter results. But first, as we are getting closer to Corebridge deconsolidation, I would like to start with an illustrative pro forma.

謝謝你，彼得。今天早上，我將提供有關 AIG 第四季度業績的更多詳細資訊。但首先，隨著我們越來越接近 Corebridge 的解散，我想從一個說明性的預估開始。

With AIG's current ownership of Corebridge at 52%, the next transaction may likely result in deconsolidation. Today, Corebridge is consolidated in both AIG's balance sheet and income statement with offsets of noncontrolling interest for the portion that AIG does not own. You can see those adjustments in the financial supplement on Pages 8 and 11.

鑑於 AIG 目前對 Corebridge 的持股比例為 52%，下一次交易可能會導致分拆。如今，Corebridge 已合併在 AIG 的資產負債表和損益表中，並抵消了 AIG 不擁有的部分的非控制權益。您可以在第 8 和 11 頁的財務補充中看到這些調整。

When we deconsolidate, we will report Corebridge as an investment with dividends reported in net investment income and Corebridge shares included in parent investments. Corebridge's balance sheet and income statement will no longer be in our financials.

當我們取消合併時，我們將把 Corebridge 報告為一項投資，並在淨投資收入中報告股息，並將 Corebridge 股份計入母公司投資中。 Corebridge 的資產負債表和損益表將不再出現在我們的財務資料中。

If we were able to deconsolidate Corebridge now, accounting rules require us to fair value their assets and liabilities and recognize the net difference between that valuation and the current GAAP carrying value in AIG's equity. That process also includes some changes primarily driven by differences in basis and deconsolidation of variable investment entities.

如果我們現在能夠拆分 Corebridge，會計規則要求我們對其資產和負債進行公允估值，並確認該估值與 AIG 股權中當前 GAAP 帳面價值之間的淨差額。該過程還包括一些主要由基礎差異和可變投資實體的拆分引起的變化。

The example I will provide is a hypothetical pro forma view. Please remember that there are many factors, and each one impacts the output. This view builds on the remarks I provided last quarter about pro forma adjusted shareholders' equity.

我將提供的範例是假設的形式視圖。請記住，因素有很多，每個因素都會影響輸出。這個觀點建立在我上個季度提供的有關備考調整後股東權益的言論的基礎上。

For simplicity, in this example, we used Corebridge's current stock price as a proxy for fair value. But the process is more complicated than that and is more dependent on interest rates than stock price as the investment portfolio has to be valued on the day of deconsolidation, which will change based on interest rates.

為簡單起見，在本例中，我們使用 Corebridge 目前的股價作為公允價值的代理。但這個過程比這更複雜，並且更依賴利率而不是股票價格，因為投資組合必須在分解當天進行估值，而這將根據利率而變化。

As a very high-level illustration, as of year-end, the fair value of Corebridge's net assets and liabilities was about $2 billion higher than the book value on AIG's balance sheet. As a result, deconsolidation would have increased AIG's book value per share by almost $3 a share.

作為一個非常高水準的例證，截至年底，Corebridge 淨資產和負債的公允價值比 AIG 資產負債表上的帳面價值高出約 20 億美元。因此，解除合併將使 AIG 的每股帳面價值增加近 3 美元。

However, for AIG's adjusted shareholders' equity, the fair value adjustment would have resulted in a reduction of about $4 billion or around $6 per AIG share, given Corebridge's stock price relative to its adjusted book value.

然而，對於 AIG 調整後的股東權益，考慮到 Corebridge 的股價相對於其調整後的帳面價值，公允價值調整將導致約 40 億美元或每股 AIG 股票約 6 美元的減少。

Now let me link these items to the AIG year-end pro forma estimates that I provided last quarter of adjusted shareholders' equity of approximately $33 billion, adjusted for the sale of Validus Re, to be used in evaluating the ROCE target.

現在讓我將這些項目與 AIG 年末預估估計值聯繫起來，我提供了上季度調整後股東權益約 330 億美元的數據，並針對 Validus Re 的出售進行了調整，用於評估 ROCE 目標。

At December 31, 2023, AIG's adjusted shareholders' equity was approximately $53 billion. With the pro forma fair value decrease of $4 billion at deconsolidation, adjusted shareholders' equity would be roughly $49 billion, including about $8 billion of value for our Corebridge shares.

截至2023年12月31日，AIG調整後股東權益約530億美元。由於分拆時預計公允價值減少了 40 億美元，調整後的股東權益將約為 490 億美元，其中包括我們的 Corebridge 股票價值約 80 億美元。

To get to the E, we subtract the value of Corebridge shares. And for the purposes of this exercise today, we also subtract year-end parent liquidity of almost $8 billion, most of which is to be used for 2024 capital management, interest and other parent expenses as Peter described. That results in pro forma adjusted shareholders' equity of about $33 billion invested in our business plus whatever liquidity is at the parent as the focus of our 10%-plus target. This example is illustrative based on year-end financials and subject to change based on markets and the actual path to deconsolidation, but I hope it is helpful.

為了得到 E，我們減去 Corebridge 股票的價值。為了今天這項工作的目的，我們還減去了近 80 億美元的年末母公司流動性，其中大部分將用於 2024 年的資本管理、利息和其他母公司支出，正如彼得所描述的。這導致預計調整後的股東權益投資於我們的業務約 330 億美元，加上母公司的流動性，成為我們 10% 以上目標的重點。這個例子是基於年終財務數據進行說明的，可能會根據市場和實際的分拆路徑而發生變化，但我希望它能有所幫助。

Now I will turn to fourth quarter results. Fourth quarter consolidated net investment income on an APTI basis was $3.5 billion, up 17% over the fourth quarter of 2022. General Insurance net investment income was 38%, while Life and Retirement was up 15%. Higher new money reinvestment rates in both businesses drove the improvement.

現在我將談談第四季的業績。第四季以 APTI 為基礎的綜合淨投資收入為 35 億美元，比 2022 年第四季成長 17%。普通保險淨投資收入為 38%，人壽和退休保險淨投資收入成長 15%。這兩項業務的新資金再投資率上升推動了業績的改善。

Fourth quarter new money rates on fixed maturities and loans averaged 6.5%, about 180 basis points higher than the yield on sales and maturities in the quarter. Fourth quarter new money rates were 160 basis points higher in GI and 190 basis points higher in L&R.

第四季固定期限和貸款的新貨幣利率平均為 6.5%，比該季度的銷售和期限收益率高出約 180 個基點。第四季新貨幣利率 GI 上升了 160 個基點，L&R 上升了 190 個基點。

With higher reinvestment rates, the yield on General Insurance fixed maturities and loans, excluding calls and prepayments, rose to an annualized yield of 3.8% in the quarter, up from 3.0% in 4Q '22 and up 9 basis points sequentially. L&R's fourth quarter portfolio yield was 5.0% compared to 4.4% in 4Q '22 and up 10 basis points sequentially. In the first half of 2024, we currently expect continued yield pickup on fixed maturities over the prior year but less improvement sequentially, given the cessation of Fed interest rate hikes and the current shape of the yield curve.

隨著再投資率的提高，一般保險固定期限和貸款（不包括提前還款和提前還款）的收益率在本季升至3.8%，高於2022 年第四季的3.0%，比上一季度上升9 個基點。 L&R 第四季投資組合收益率為 5.0%，而 2022 年第四季為 4.4%，季增 10 個基點。考慮到聯準會停止升息以及目前的殖利率曲線形狀，我們目前預計 2024 年上半年固定期限債券的殖利率將比上年持續上升，但環比改善幅度較小。

In contrast, alternative investment returns were weak this year, coming in slightly negative in the fourth quarter and at only 2.4% for the full year. GI alternative income was $41 million in the fourth quarter, down 11% from the prior year quarter for an annualized return of 3.9%. L&R's alternative portfolio generated a loss of $24 million in the quarter for an annualized yield of negative 1.8% compared to income of $16 million last year.

相較之下，今年另類投資回報疲軟，第四季略為負值，全年僅 2.4%。第四季 GI 另類營收為 4,100 萬美元，比去年同期下降 11%，年化報酬率為 3.9%。 L&R 的另類投資組合本季虧損 2,400 萬美元，年化收益率為負 1.8%，而去年的營收為 1,600 萬美元。

Turning to General Insurance. As Peter said, our underwriting results remain very strong. The 4Q '23 calendar year combined ratio was 89.1%, 80 basis points better than the fourth quarter of 2022. And the accident year combined ratio ex cats was 87.9%, 50 basis points better.

轉向一般保險。正如彼得所說，我們的承保業績仍然非常強勁。 23 年第四季綜合成本率為 89.1%，比 2022 年第四季好 80 個基點。事故年綜合成本率為 87.9%，比 2022 年第四季好 50 個基點。

Global Commercial Lines delivered outstanding fourth quarter results with a calendar year combined ratio of 85.4%, a 90 basis point improvement over the prior year. The accident year combined ratio ex cats was 82.4%, a 170 basis point improvement reflecting exceptional underwriting profitability in both North America and International.

全球商業航運公司第四季業績表現出色，歷年綜合成本率為 85.4%，較上年提高 90 個基點。事故年綜合成本率（除貓）為 82.4%，提高了 170 個基點，反映出北美和國際地區卓越的承保獲利能力。

The fourth quarter included only 1 month of Validus Re due to the timing of the divestiture. Excluding Validus Re from fourth quarter results, the pro forma Global Commercial Lines calendar year combined ratio would have been 85.1%, 30 basis points lower than reported. The accident year combined ratio ex cats would have been 82.5%, only 10 basis points higher.

由於剝離的時間安排，第四季度僅包含 1 個月的 Validus Re。從第四季業績中剔除 Validus Re 後，預計全球商業航運公司日曆年綜合成本率為 85.1%，比報告低 30 個基點。事故年綜合比率（前貓）為 82.5%，僅高出 10 個基點。

The fourth quarter calendar year combined ratio for Global Personal Insurance was 98.8%, 90 basis points better than 4Q '22. The accident year combined ratio ex cats was 101.8%, 140 basis points higher driven by the repositioning of the high net worth business, which made significant progress in 2023.

全球個人保險第四季日曆年綜合成本率為 98.8%，比 22 年第四季高出 90 個基點。事故年綜合成本率（除貓）為101.8%，在高淨值業務重新定位的推動下提高了140個基點，並在2023年取得了重大進展。

Fourth quarter underwriting income for GI was $642 million, up slightly from $635 million in 4Q '22 as improved accident year results, including catastrophe losses, were offset by lower favorable prior year development, net of reinsurance and prior year premiums. Catastrophe losses totaled $126 million in the quarter, down from $235 million last year. The largest event was Hurricane Otis in Mexico.

GI 的第四季承保收入為6.42 億美元，略高於2022 年第四季的6.35 億美元，原因是事故年度業績（包括巨災損失）的改善被去年有利的發展（扣除再保險和上年保費）所抵消。本季災難損失總計 1.26 億美元，低於去年的 2.35 億美元。最大的事件是墨西哥的奧蒂斯颶風。

For the fourth quarter and the year, catastrophe losses, excluding Validus Re, would have been $111 million and $937 million, respectively. Favorable prior year development totaled $69 million in the fourth quarter compared to $151 million in 4Q '22. Including the impact of prior year premiums, the total impact of prior year loss reserve development was favorable by $37 million compared to favorable development of $150 million in 4Q '22.

第四季和全年的巨災損失（不包括 Validus Re）將分別為 1.11 億美元和 9.37 億美元。去年第四季的有利發展總額為 6,900 萬美元，而 2022 年第四季為 1.51 億美元。包括上一年保費的影響在內，上一年損失準備金發展的總體影響有利 3,700 萬美元，而 22 年第四季的有利發展為 1.5 億美元。

Fourth quarter net favorable development this quarter includes $41 million of ADC gain amortization and $28 million of net favorable development from annual DVRs and other reserve reviews, particularly prior year catastrophes. The $28 million included $75 million in additional reserves for Russia-Ukraine related claims, offset by net favorable development on shorter tail lines and older catastrophes.

第四季的淨有利發展 本季包括 4,100 萬美元的 ADC 收益攤銷和來自年度 DVR 和其他準備金審查（特別是上一年災難）的 2,800 萬美元的淨有利發展。 2800萬美元包括俄羅斯-烏克蘭相關索賠的7500萬美元額外準備金，但被較短尾線和較早災難的淨有利發展所抵消。

Turning to L&R. Fourth quarter results were solid, especially considering the continued headwinds from alternative investment returns. Fourth quarter APTI was $957 million, up 12% over the prior year driven by base spread expansion, strong sales and growth in assets under management and administration. Base net investment spreads in Individual and Group Retirement together widened 23 basis points in the quarter.

轉向L＆R。第四季業績穩健，特別是考慮到另類投資回報的持續阻力。第四季 APTI 為 9.57 億美元，比上年成長 12%，這得益於基差擴大、強勁的銷售以及管理和管理資產的成長。本季個人和團體退休金的基礎淨投資利差合計擴大了 23 個基點。

Fourth quarter premiums and deposits were $10.6 billion, up 20% from 4Q '22. For the fourth quarter, Corebridge's earnings included in AIG adjusted after-tax income decreased by about 25% due to the reduction in AIG ownership from 78% last year to 52% as of year-end. For the full year, Corebridge earnings in our adjusted after-tax income declined 20%.

第四季保費和存款為 106 億美元，比 2022 年第四季成長 20%。第四季度，由於 AIG 持股比例從去年的 78% 減少至年底的 52%，Corebridge 計入 AIG 調整後稅後收入的收益下降了約 25%。全年來看，Corebridge 調整後稅後收入中的收益下降了 20%。

Turning to other operations. Fourth quarter 2023 adjusted pretax loss improved by $52 million from 4Q '22 due to a $72 million reduction in AIG general operating expenses. Total other operations GOE was $242 million for the quarter, including $61 million for Corebridge.

轉向其他操作。由於 AIG 一般營運費用減少了 7,200 萬美元，2023 年第四季調整後稅前虧損比 2022 年第四季減少了 5,200 萬美元。本季其他業務 GOE 總額為 2.42 億美元，其中 Corebridge 的 6,100 萬美元。

On a consolidated basis, AIG's fourth quarter adjusted after-tax income rose 21% to $1.3 billion driven by 19% growth in General Insurance APTI. The annualized adjusted return on common equity was 9.4% for the quarter, almost 2 points higher than the fourth quarter of 2022.

綜合來看，AIG 第四季調整後稅後收入成長了 21%，達到 13 億美元，這主要得益於普通保險 APTI 成長 19%。本季調整後的年化普通股報酬率為 9.4%，比 2022 年第四季高出近 2 個百分點。

Moving to the balance sheet. Book value per common share ended the year at $65.14, up 18% from year-end 2022 and up 16% from September 30, primarily due to the impact of lower interest rates. Adjusted book value per share was $76.65 at year-end, up 1% from year-end 2022 and down 2% for September 30, reflecting the net impact of income, dividends, share repurchases and Corebridge secondary sales.

轉向資產負債表。截至年底，每股普通股帳面價值為 65.14 美元，較 2022 年底成長 18%，較 9 月 30 日成長 16%，主要是由於利率下降的影響。截至年底，調整後每股帳面價值為 76.65 美元，較 2022 年底增長 1%，截至 9 月 30 日下降 2%，反映了收入、股息、股票回購和 Corebridge 二級銷售的淨影響。

At December 31, AIG's consolidated debt and preferred stock to total capital, excluding AOCI, was 24.3%, down 1.3 points from year-end 2022. With first quarter 2024 debt reduction, leverage is likely to be at the low end of our 20% to 25% range upon deconsolidation.

截至12 月31 日，AIG 的合併債務和優先股佔總資本（不包括AOCI）為24.3%，比2022 年底下降1.3 個百分點。隨著2024 年第一季債務削減，槓桿率可能處於20%的低端分解後的範圍為 25%。

As Peter noted, we made substantial progress towards our 10%-plus ROCE goal this year. 2023 full year adjusted ROCE for AIG was 9.0% compared to 7.1% in 2022 and was 12.5% in General Insurance and 11.5% in L&R. The actions to reach 10% or greater will be driven by the 4 levers we have discussed before, including AIG Next. We are confident in our ability to achieve this goal, subject to market conditions and look forward to updating you on our progress.

正如 Peter 指出的，我們今年在實現 10% 以上 ROCE 目標方面取得了實質進展。 AIG 2023 年全年調整後 ROCE 為 9.0%，而 2022 年為 7.1%，普通保險為 12.5%，L&R 為 11.5%。達到 10% 或更高的行動將由我們之前討論過的 4 個槓桿驅動，包括 AIG Next。我們對根據市場情況實現這一目標的能力充滿信心，並期待向您通報我們的最新進展。

With that, I will turn the call back over to Peter.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Sabra. Michelle, we're ready for questions.

謝謝你，薩布拉。米歇爾，我們準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Michael Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Michael Zaremski。

Maybe first on the expense ratio. I appreciate the color, Peter, you gave us on the continued improvement. Anything -- looks like this quarter, specifically, though, it took -- it was a bit higher than expected. Anything we should be thinking about? Or I don't know, if it's profit share, given the excellent loss ratio or just anything, any noise in there or seasonality?

也許首先是費用比率。我很欣賞彼得的顏色，你為我們帶來了持續的改進。任何事情——看起來像這個季度，但具體來說——它比預期要高一些。有什麼值得我們思考的嗎？或者我不知道，考慮到出色的損失率或任何其他因素，這是否是利潤分成，是否有任何噪音或季節性？

Thanks, Mike. We outlined in my script that the business has been taking a lot of additional costs. Think about cyber and usage on the cloud. And so that might have been held centrally in the past. That has now been put into the business. And so you see that they're absorbing most of it, but there is some timing on that.

謝謝，麥克。我們在腳本中概述了該業務已經承擔了大量額外成本。考慮網路和雲端上的使用。因此，這在過去可能是集中舉行的。現在已經投入到業務中。所以你可以看到他們吸收了其中的大部分，但這有一些時機。

Also in Personal Insurance, there is a lot of noise in the quarter. There's some onetime true-up adjustments. There's also some profit sharing, as you mentioned, in some of our Personal Insurance businesses. And so -- and there was also some catch-up on some of the reinsurance on earned premium.

同樣在個人保險領域，本季也有很多噪音。有一些一次性的調整。正如您所提到的，我們的一些個人保險業務也有一些利潤分享。因此，一些再保險的保費也有所增加。

So I'm not concerned at all about the uptick in expenses. It was very nominal. When I look at what the business has actually absorbed in terms of increased costs year-over-year, they've really built capacity to be able to invest in the future. And the fourth quarter reflected that, but there was a little bit of noise as well, particularly on the Personal Insurance side.

所以我根本不擔心費用的增加。這是非常名義上的。當我查看企業實際上吸收了逐年增加的成本時，他們確實建立了能夠投資未來的能力。第四季反映了這一點，但也有一些噪音，特別是在個人保險方面。

Okay. Great. And then my final follow-up is on the -- specifically on the accident year loss ratio. You've -- the Validus is property-centric, and it's going to be kind of fully out of the numbers next quarter. You talked about nonrenewing some property throughout the year.

好的。偉大的。然後我的最後一個後續行動是──特別是事故年損失率。 Validus 是以房地產為中心的，下個季度它將完全超出數字。您談到全年不更新某些財產。

And I understand Financial Lines has got a lot of pricing, but Financial Lines pricing isn't great trailing 12-month basis. So just on the underlying loss ratio, given just all the dynamics, should we be thinking about any material changes to the underlying loss ratio as the year progresses, given the moving parts?

據我所知，Financial Lines 有很多定價，但 Financial Lines 的定價在過去 12 個月的基礎上並不是很好。因此，就基本損失率而言，考慮到所有動態，我們是否應該考慮隨著時間的推移，考慮到變動因素，基本損失率會發生任何重大變化？

I don't think so. I think the accident year loss ratio that we finished the year is what I would expect in 2024. Like you said, there's always a mix of business changes. There's always a little bit of noise. There could be some shift in composition. As you mentioned, property, we think we have tremendous opportunities there based on having 5 or 6 entry points across the world in terms of getting the best risk-adjusted returns.

我不這麼認為。我認為我們今年完成的事故年損失率是我對 2024 年的預期。正如您所說，業務總是會改變。總是有一點噪音。成分可能會發生一些變化。正如您所提到的，在房地產領域，我們認為我們擁有巨大的機會，因為我們在全球擁有 5 或 6 個切入點，可以獲得最佳的風險調整回報。

When I look at what we've done in property over the last 5 years, we've gone from combined ratios in North America that are well north of 130 combined into the 70s and 80s now. So I think we have a really good platform. We're able to scale up businesses when we see opportunities. But I would think absent big mix of business changes, I would not expect any changes in the loss ratio.

當我回顧過去 5 年我們在房地產領域所做的事情時，我們發現北美的綜合比率已經從遠高於 130 的綜合比率變成了現在的 70 和 80 左右。所以我認為我們有一個非常好的平台。當我們看到機會時，我們能夠擴大業務規模。但我認為，如果沒有大規模的業務變化，我預期損失率不會有任何變化。

And I signaled on the call that the remediation is largely behind us. I mean, again, you're always going to be reunderwriting, but large programs or portions of the business in commercial, we really like what we have, and I think that there's real good opportunities for growth.

我在電話中表示，補救措施已基本完成。我的意思是，你總是會重新承保，但是大型專案或商業部分的業務，我們真的很喜歡我們所擁有的，而且我認為這確實有很好的成長機會。

Our next question comes from Meyer Shields with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

Great. One quick question just to make sure I understand it. So you talked about pricing assumptions for casualty, assuming loss trends of either high single digits or low teens. Did that match the loss trends embedded in the reserves?

偉大的。一個簡短的問題只是為了確保我理解它。因此，您談到了傷亡事故的定價假設，假設損失趨勢為高個位數或低十幾位數。這與準備金中的損失趨勢相符嗎？

Sabra, do you want to talk about the reserves commensurate to the increase in premium and then -- sorry, an increase in rate change, particularly on excess?

薩布拉，你想談談與保費增加相稱的準備金，然後——抱歉，利率變化的增加，特別是超額的變化？

Yes. So when we've -- and we've talked about it in the past, we've taken a proactive approach to try and to react quickly to bad news that we see in trends. And as you know, even back in 2017, we moved to increase the reserves on casualty lines.

是的。因此，當我們過去討論過這個問題時，我們採取了積極主動的方法，嘗試對趨勢中看到的壞消息做出快速反應。如您所知，早在 2017 年，我們就開始增加傷亡險準備金。

Our underlying assumptions for casualty loss trend is in the 10% range. It does vary between primary and excess. Our book historically has been a little bit more balanced towards excess, and that's why you can see some of the changes in the loss ratios accident year by accident year.

我們對傷亡損失趨勢的基本假設在 10% 範圍內。主要和過度之間確實有所不同。從歷史上看，我們的書對過度行為更加平衡，這就是為什麼您可以逐年看到損失率發生一些變化的原因。

I would note that we do our deeper dive on the casualty lines largely in the third quarter. There are some that are in the second quarter, and we did complete those reserves this year without any meaningful changes in the reserves.

我要指出的是，我們主要在第三季對傷亡人數進行了更深入的研究。有一些是在第二季度，我們今年確實完成了這些儲備，但儲備沒有任何有意義的變化。

So another observation, Meyer, on that is that the rates as we got to the back half of the year in Casualty, particularly in Excess Casualty, started to accelerate into double digits. And also not that this is a bellwether because there's different mix of business, but our casualty submissions in Lexington in the fourth quarter were up 100%, which just means it's getting harder to get casualty placements done in the admitted market. Pricing is going up driven by rate, terms of conditions are being tightened and there's more activity in E&S.

邁耶（Meyer）的另一個觀察是，今年下半年傷亡率，特別是超額傷亡率，開始加速到兩位數。而且這並不是說這是一個領頭羊，因為業務組合不同，但第四季度我們在列剋星敦提交的傷員報告增長了100%，這只是意味著在承認的市場中完成傷員安置變得越來越困難。利率推動定價上漲，條件條款收緊，E&S 領域的活動增加。

Okay. Fantastic. That's very helpful. Second question, I guess, maybe jumping off from that. I guess I'm a little surprised that there's still, if I understand correctly, the same level of proportional sessions on North American casualty despite the fact that overall profitability has gotten so much better and higher interest rates. And I was hoping you could take us through your thinking on that.

好的。極好的。這非常有幫助。我想，第二個問題也許是從這個問題出發的。我想我有點驚訝的是，如果我理解正確的話，儘管整體盈利能力已經變得更好，利率也更高，但北美傷亡人數的比例會議仍然保持相同水平。我希望你能告訴我們你對此的想法。

Sure. Look, our casualty placements have evolved over time to reflect the portfolio, the gross limit deployment. And if I could take you back to even 2016 and '17 where we had quota shares before we arrived where we had a 50% quota share on Primary Casualty and then we had a 37.5% placement on Excess Casualty. That's just continued to evolve as we got into 2018, where we bought a large excess of loss placements for our worldwide Casualty portfolio for 75 ex of 25.

當然。看，我們的傷亡人員安置隨著時間的推移而演變，以反映投資組合、總限額部署。如果我能帶你回到 2016 年和 17 年，我們在主要傷亡方面擁有 50% 的配額份額，然後在超額傷亡方面擁有 37.5% 的配額。隨著我們進入 2018 年，這種情況還在繼續發展，我們為全球傷亡險投資組合購買了大量超額損失配置，其中 25 隻為 75 隻。

And then at the end of 2018, we bought a 50% quota share for our casualty portfolio within the United States. And the reason why I just give you that as a baseline is we've changed, evolved. We've had reinsurance in place since 2016. But when you look at what we place on the quota share today, it's basically 20%. So we've taken that down while we've improved ceding commissions over 800 basis points from the original placement to 20% from north of 50.

然後在 2018 年底，我們為美國的傷亡投資組合購買了 50% 的配額份額。我之所以給你這個作為基準，是因為我們已經改變、進化了。我們自 2016 年起就設立了再保險。但是當你看看我們今天分配的配額份額時，你會發現它基本上是 20%。因此，我們降低了這一比例，同時將讓出佣金從原來的 800 個基點提高到 50% 以上的 20%。

So I think we have been recognizing that we don't need to do as much proportional. But there's a balance in those placements between the excess and the quota share partnerships with reinsurers. They like a balance between the excess of loss and quota share in terms of our underwriting and feel very comfortable that, that's a good amount to cede off for looking at our overall casualty portfolio.

所以我認為我們已經認識到我們不需要做那麼多的比例。但在這些配售中，與再保險公司的超額份額和配額份額之間存在著平衡。他們喜歡在我們承保方面的超額損失和配額份額之間取得平衡，並且感到非常放心，因為考慮到我們的整體傷亡投資組合，這是一個很好的放棄金額。

Our next question comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的艾莉絲‧格林斯潘。

My first question was on the equity that you laid out, Sabra. So $33 billion pro forma adjusted equity. And then I believe you said parent liquidity would come on top of that. So can you just give us a sense of once you're through deconsolidation, what type of liquidity you would like to have in parent? Because I'm assuming it would be $33 billion plus the parent liquidity would be the equity that we should consider in reference to the double-digit plus ROCE target.

我的第一個問題是關於你提出的權益，薩布拉。預計調整後股本為 330 億美元。然後我相信你說過母公司的流動性會是最重要的。那麼，您能否讓我們了解一下，一旦您完成分拆，您希望母公司擁有哪種類型的流動性？因為我假設這將是 330 億美元加上母公司的流動性將是我們應該參考兩位數加 ROCE 目標考慮的股本。

Thanks, Elyse. I'll turn it over to Sabra in 2 seconds. But I just want to caution us that we tried to outline what we expect shareholders' equity with a variety of different variables, but it was all pro forma.

謝謝，愛麗絲。兩秒鐘後我會把它交給 Sabra。但我只是想提醒我們，我們試著用各種不同的變數來概述我們期望的股東權益，但這都是形式上的。

So I think Sabra can answer the question sort of technically as to how we should be looking about our capital relative to how we get to the 10% ROCE. But I just don't want to go into too many more variables because that was a pro forma that had a lot of assumptions. Sabra?

所以我認為 Sabra 可以從技術上回答這個問題，即我們應該如何看待我們的資本以及如何達到 10% 的 ROCE。但我只是不想涉及太多變量，因為這是一個有很多假設的形式。薩布拉？

Yes, certainly. Look, we have a framework around our liquidity position. And clearly, given the timing of the Corebridge secondaries and the Validus sale in the fourth quarter, parent liquidity was at very attractive and high levels at year-end.

是的，當然了。看，我們有一個圍繞流動性部位的框架。顯然，考慮到第四季度 Corebridge 二級市場和 Validus 出售的時機，母公司的流動性在年底處於非常有吸引力的高水準。

The way we think of it in a normal framework is we look at what our forward holding company needs are. So think about common dividend payments of roughly $1 billion a year. AIG-only interest expense, roughly $500 million a year. And then parent expenses, which as we've talked about, we're focused on getting those down to 1% to 1.5% of NPE range. So that's what we think about in terms of a normal liquidity position, which is lower, obviously, than where we ended the year.

我們在正常框架中思考它的方式是我們看看我們的遠期控股公司的需求是什麼。因此，想想每年大約 10 億美元的普通股息支付。僅 AIG 的利息支出，每年約 5 億美元。然後是家長費用，正如我們所討論的，我們致力於將其降至 NPE 範圍的 1% 至 1.5%。這就是我們對正常流動性部位的看法，這顯然低於我們年底的水準。

And then my second question, appreciate all the color on the call on premium growth, right, I think it was around 9% in the quarter kind of ex Validus and Crop. And so as we think about the moving pieces and just your view of price, loss trend, et cetera, would you expect top line growth kind of on an adjusted basis to be within that range in '24? Are there other things that we should consider?

然後我的第二個問題，欣賞關於溢價增長的所有色彩，對吧，我認為本季 Validus 和 Crop 的增長約為 9%。因此，當我們考慮變動因素以及您對價格、損失趨勢等的看法時，您是否預期 24 年調整後的營收成長會在該範圍內？我們還應該考慮其他事情嗎？

Well, when you take out -- again, there's a lot of moving pieces, but like you take out Validus, Crop Risk Services, and so we have a baseline. And then when we look at our commercial portfolio -- I look at the fundamentals, Elyse, in terms of how are we growing the business. And we gave you highlights in the fourth quarter about our new business, which was simply terrific, and that momentum continues. Our retentions have been fantastic. And so again, it's a portfolio that we have done such a great job to get to a place where we really like and find opportunities for stability and more growth.

好吧，當你再次拿出時，有很多變化的部分，但就像你拿出 Validus、作物風險服務等一樣，我們有一個基線。然後，當我們審視我們的商業投資組合時，Elyse，我會從我們如何發展業務的角度來審視基本面。我們在第四季度向您重點介紹了我們的新業務，這簡直太棒了，而且這種勢頭仍在繼續。我們的保留率非常好。再說一遍，我們在這個投資組合中做得非常出色，達到了我們真正喜歡的水平，並找到了穩定和更多成長的機會。

Agree on the rate. I mean, again, the fourth quarter was just a moment, but we would expect Financial Lines in 2024 not to keep up at the same pace on excess. We'll see as we get into the market, but really like the opportunities in our core businesses to drive growth.

同意費率。我的意思是，第四季只是一個瞬間，但我們預計 2024 年的 Financial Lines 不會跟上同樣的超額速度。當我們進入市場時，我們會看到，但我們真的很喜歡我們核心業務中推動成長的機會。

Lexington, I know there's been a lot of discussion in this quarter around is excess and surplus lines slowing down, things going back to the admitted. There's no evidence to suggest that's true.

列剋星敦，我知道本季有很多關於過剩和盈餘線放緩的討論，事情可以追溯到承認的問題。沒有證據表明這是真的。

Again, submission count is significantly up. And it's not just property. Property, if I looked at the fourth quarter, was the lowest submission count growth, and that was up over 30%. As I said, property's around 30%, casualty was up over 100%, and health care was around 50%. So there's a lot more opportunity to continue to grow in excess and surplus lines. And you know what, the property market, you get to the second quarter and there is your opportunity.

提交數量再次顯著增加。這不僅僅是財產。如果我看看第四季度，房地產是提交數量增長最低的，但增長了 30% 以上。正如我所說，財產約為 30%，傷亡人數增加了 100% 以上，醫療保健約為 50%。因此，超額和盈餘線有更多的機會繼續成長。你知道嗎，房地產市場到了第二季度，機會就來了。

So like we have built a reinsurance structure. We've built a gross portfolio that we can flex depending on market conditions. I mentioned Global Specialty. We think there's growth opportunities there. We think there's growth opportunities in our Personal Insurance business.

就像我們建立了一個再保險結構。我們已經建立了一個總投資組合，可以根據市場狀況進行調整。我提到了全球專業。我們認為那裡存在成長機會。我們認為我們的個人保險業務存在成長機會。

So we're cautious but optimistic that the growth rate that you outlined in the high single digits is going to be achieved. But again, we have to be in the year, and we'll give you updates every quarter, but we're optimistic.

因此，我們對實現您所概述的高個位數成長率持謹慎但樂觀的態度。但同樣，我們必須在這一年中，我們每個季度都會向您提供更新，但我們很樂觀。

Our next question comes from Mike Ward with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的麥克沃德。

Maybe kind of a similar question, but specifically on International. I think rate is a little below loss cost. So I was just wondering if you have any commentary on how you see the top line growth there playing out.

也許有類似的問題，但具體是關於國際的。我認為利率略低於損失成本。所以我只是想知道您對如何看待那裡的營收成長有何評論。

Mike, thanks for the question. If I look at International on the rate side, just a reminder that we do rate on gross premium written, not net. And so like as you take that from the portfolio, there's a heavy weighting our Specialty business in the fourth quarter. And the Specialty business does have a lot of quota shares and has a terrific reinsurance partnership. But it's almost 50% of the business, roughly between 40 to 50 in the quarter.

麥克，謝謝你的提問。如果我從費率來看國際，只是提醒我們，我們對毛保費進行利率計算，而不是淨保費。因此，就像您從投資組合中看到的那樣，第四季度我們的特種業務佔據了很大的比重。專業業務確實擁有大量配額，並且擁有出色的再保險合作夥伴關係。但這幾乎佔業務的 50%，本季大約在 40 到 50 之間。

And so Specialty while had good rate increase in marine, political risk had a weighting on rate in the quarter as well as Financial Lines. Financial Line is about 20% of the gross premium written in the quarter and having a negative that just weights the overall rate environment.

因此，雖然特種業務在海運領域的費率成長良好，但政治風險對本季的費率以及金融業務產生了影響。 Financial Line 約佔本季毛保費的 20%，其負面影響只會影響整體費率環境。

But we had very strong rate in property. We had very good rate, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, of 8% in marine. And so yes, the overall index was at or perhaps slightly below loss cost trend, but it's not something we're concerned about.

但我們在房地產方面的表現非常強勁。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們在海運方面的比率非常好，為 8%。所以，是的，整體指數處於或可能略低於損失成本趨勢，但這不是我們擔心的事情。

The other thing too, in Specialty, you should realize is that December 1 is when all aviation renews. And so that was low single digits, again, weighting on it.

另一件事情，在專業領域，你應該意識到 12 月 1 日是所有航空更新的時間。因此，這又是一個較低的個位數，這對它產生了影響。

But it's mix of business, it's gross, and why I say gross is that when you take the gross to net for our Specialty business, it's basically 50% net premium written to gross. And so like we put that in the math in terms of our ceding commissions and profitability of the portfolio. But overall, we were pleased and think that there's opportunities to improve that in 2024.

但這是業務的混合，它是毛額，我說毛額的原因是，當你將我們的專業業務的毛額轉為淨額時，它基本上是淨保費的 50% 寫入毛額。就像我們將其放入數學中一樣，就是我們放棄的佣金和投資組合的獲利能力。但總的來說，我們很高興，並認為 2024 年有機會改進這一點。

And then maybe just on the adverse PYD in Russia, Ukraine. Just is that related to aviation? And is that just accident year '22? Because I think there was some adverse in other -- '20 and '19.

然後也許只是俄羅斯和烏克蘭不利的 PYD。這和航空有關嗎？那隻是22年的意外嗎？因為我認為其他方面也有一些不利之處——'20 和 '19。

Sabra, do you want to provide a little bit of update in terms of how we got to the adverse?

Sabra，你想提供一些關於我們如何陷入困境的最新資訊嗎？

Sure. And I'll just start by overall. As I mentioned, we did have some favorable prior year development from older catastrophe years. So those were basically in years 2018 through 2020.

當然。我將從整體開始。正如我所提到的，我們確實在過去的災難年份中取得了一些有利的發展。所以這些基本上是 2018 年到 2020 年。

If you look at the more recent accident years, as we indicated, we did put up $75 million of additional reserves related to Russia- and Ukraine-related claims. We've been evaluating our exposure for some time. And based on the analysis where we are at the end of the year, we felt it was appropriate to increase our reserves for the quarter.

如果你看看最近幾年的事故，正如我們所指出的，我們確實為與俄羅斯和烏克蘭相關的索賠相關準備了 7500 萬美元的額外準備金。一段時間以來，我們一直在評估我們的曝光度。根據我們年底的分析，我們認為增加本季的準備金是合適的。

But I would also note that in the 2022 accident year, we did have some adverse development on winter storm Elliott, which was at the very tail end of the fourth quarter of 2022. And then in the older accident years, as I said in General, we netted to a favorable reserve development. But we did have some adverse development in the 2018 and 2019 accident years on some mergers and acquisitions-related exposures.

但我還要指出，在2022 年事故年，我們確實在2022 年第四季末的冬季風暴艾利奧特上出現了一些不利的發展。然後在較早的事故年，正如我在《總體》中所說的那樣，我們獲得了有利的儲​​備發展。但在2018年和2019年的事故年中，我們在一些併購相關風險方面確實出現了一些不利的發展。

Our next question comes from Brian Meredith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布萊恩梅雷迪思。

First question, I'm just curious, as we look at this, you're getting close to the 600 million kind of share count. As we think about that and the use of proceeds from Corebridge, are you willing to go kind of meaningfully below that? And if not, what is the other kind of potential uses of capital here that you're thinking about to mitigate dilution from selling down your remaining interest in Corebridge?

第一個問題，我只是很好奇，當我們看到這個時，你的股票數量已經接近 6 億。當我們考慮這一點以及 Corebridge 收益的使用時，您是否願意有意義地低於該水平？如果沒有，您正在考慮的其他潛在資本用途是什麼，以減輕出售您在 Corebridge 的剩餘權益而造成的稀釋？

Thank you, Brian. It's a good question. It's a little leading, but we had outlined the capital management strategy for the first 6 months, and that gets us below the [650 million] share count at a base assumption of a stock price around where we are now. And so there's a few variables that could accelerate that or slow it down depending on market conditions and share price. But we know we have the liquidity, and we just wanted to outline what we thought we would do within the first 6 months.

謝謝你，布萊恩。這是一個好問題。這有點領先，但我們已經概述了前 6 個月的資本管理策略，這使得我們的股票數量低於當前股價的基本假設（6.5 億）股。因此，根據市場狀況和股價，有一些變數可能會加速或減緩這一過程。但我們知道我們有流動性，我們只是想概述我們認為在前 6 個月內會做什麼。

The next is dependent upon when we do a secondary sell-down, which I would expect before the end of the second quarter another sell-down, which gives us more liquidity. And the primary focus is going to be on share repurchase and dividend payment and believe that we can then get by the end of the year down to the lower end of the range or the 600 million.

下一個取決於我們何時進行二次拋售，我預計在第二季末之前會再次拋售，這會給我們帶來更多的流動性。主要重點將放在股票回購和股息支付上，相信我們可以在今年年底前降至該範圍的下限，即 6 億。

Once we're closer to that, we feel like we've made enormous progress on all the elements of our capital management strategy. It has been very balanced and believe we would have to give guidance after that in terms of what we intend to do. But I kind of want to get to the range first, in the 600 million to 650 million, and then get to the lower end of the range with proceeds, and then we would provide additional guidance.

一旦我們接近這個目標，我們就會覺得我們在資本管理策略的所有要素上都取得了巨大的進展。它非常平衡，相信我們之後必須就我們打算做什麼提供指導。但我想先達到這個範圍，6億到6.5億，然後用收益達到這個範圍的下限，然後我們會提供額外的指引。

Great. That's helpful. And then, Peter, I just want to chat briefly on the Financial Lines business. And it seems like everybody is cutting Financial Lines. I'm just kind of wondering like who is actually running the business? And do we think we're getting closer to a bottom here? And do you think that's still a significant headwind to 2024 premium growth?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後，彼得，我只想簡單談談金融業務。似乎每個人都在削減財務線。我只是想知道誰在實際經營這家公司？我們是否認為我們正在接近底部？您認為這仍然是 2024 年保費成長的重大阻力嗎？

Thank you, Brian, for the question. And I've been trying to find a way to bring in McElroy to close it out. So Dave, why don't you give Brian some insight, and then we'll send it back to me, and we'll finish up.

謝謝布萊恩提出這個問題。我一直在想辦法引進麥克羅伊來結束這一切。所以戴夫，你為什麼不給布萊恩一些見解，然後我們會把它發回給我，然後我們就完成了。

Thank you, Brian, and thank you, Peter. The -- yes, honestly, Brian, you see the weighting of the Financial Lines in our portfolio. It's a bit of an outside influence. But we've also gone through the year, and I think we trade the market we're in, not the market we hope for.

謝謝你，布萊恩，謝謝你，彼得。 - 是的，老實說，布萊恩，你看到了我們投資組合中金融產品線的權重。這有點受外界影響。但我們也經歷了這一年，我認為我們交易的是我們所處的市場，而不是我們所希望的市場。

So the -- I think we've been prudent around letting excess underpriced business go. I think we've been good about holding on to our primary business. So I think that actually really has held up well.

因此，我認為我們在放棄過多的定價過低的業務方面一直持謹慎態度。我認為我們一直很好地堅持我們的主要業務。所以我認為這實際上確實很好。

I'd also think that it's always worth understanding there's a lot of other products in the portfolio. And they've held up well, whether that's private company business or professional indemnity or the fidelity businesses. Those are strong, and we actually anticipate those will continue to hold up in '24, okay?

我還認為，了解產品組合中還有很多其他產品總是值得的。無論是私人公司業務、專業賠償業務或保真業務，它們都表現得很好。這些都很強大，我們實際上預計這些將在 24 年繼續保持下去，好嗎？

The seminal event is 2023 showed up with different securities class action experience than the '20 to '22 cohort here. It actually looks more like '16 to '19. The question will be whether the industry reacts to that, okay? Much more severity flowing through that year. It obviously exposes the verticality of loss.

2023 年的重大事件出現了與 20 至 22 年群體不同的證券集體訴訟經驗。它實際上看起來更像是'16 到'19。問題是業界是否對此做出反應，好嗎？那一年的情況更加嚴重。這顯然暴露了損失的垂直性。

I do think it's put a little bit of a floor on the market going into 2024. We're seeing that. We're seeing that now. There's definitely going to be more control in primary, but I'm not going to be -- we won't sit on the front cover of CNBC -- or sitting in the middle of CNBC, but we like the business. We like the pricing of the business. And we also think that it's tethered to the economy. As that shows up, that will also help with new business opportunities that we see both in M&A, both in IPOs and both in structured. So it is the first time in 3 years that I might give it a little bit of optimism. Peter?

我確實認為這為進入 2024 年的市場奠定了一定的基礎。我們已經看到了這一點。我們現在看到了。初選肯定會有更多的控制權，但我不會——我們不會坐在 CNBC 的封面上——或者坐在 CNBC 的中間，但我們喜歡這個行業。我們喜歡該業務的定價。我們也認為這與經濟息息相關。正如所顯示的那樣，這也將有助於我們在併購、首次公開發行和結構化方面看到新的商機。所以這是三年來我第一次對此感到樂觀。彼得？

Thanks, Dave. Thank you very much, and thanks, Brian. Thank you, everyone, for coming to the earnings call today and greatly appreciate the engagement. And I want to thank all of our colleagues around the world for all they've done to progress the strategic progress that we've made and just have delivered tremendous results. So everybody, have a great day, and thank you.

謝謝，戴夫。非常感謝你，也謝謝布萊恩。感謝大家參加今天的財報電話會議，並非常感謝大家的參與。我要感謝世界各地的所有同事為推動我們已經取得的策略進展所做的一切，並且取得了巨大的成果。祝大家有個愉快的一天，謝謝。

Thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

感謝您參加今天的會議。這確實結束了程序，您現在可以斷開連接。大家，祝你有美好的一天。