American International Group Inc (AIG) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to AIG's Third Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. This conference is being recorded.

    美好的一天,歡迎參加 AIG 2023 年第三季財務業績電話會議。本次會議正在錄製中。

  • Now at this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Quentin McMillan. Please go ahead.

    現在這個時候,我想把會議交給昆汀·麥克米倫。請繼續。

  • Quentin John McMillan - VP, MD & Head of IR

    Quentin John McMillan - VP, MD & Head of IR

  • Thanks very much, and good morning.

    非常感謝,早安。

  • Today's remarks may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and are based on management's current expectations. AIG's filings with the SEC provide details on important factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially. Except as required by applicable securities laws, AIG is under no obligation to update any forward-looking statements if circumstances or management's estimates or opinions should change.

    今天的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述存在風險和不確定性。這些陳述不是對未來績效或事件的保證,而是基於管理階層目前的預期。 AIG 向 SEC 提交的文件提供了可能導致實際結果或事件出現重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。除適用的證券法要求外,如果情況或管理層的估計或意見發生變化,AIG 沒有義務更新任何前瞻性聲明。

  • Today's remarks may also include non-GAAP financial measures. The reconciliation of such measures to the most comparable GAAP figures is included in our earnings release, financial supplement and earnings presentation, all of which are available on our website at aig.com.

    今天的言論可能還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。這些指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 數據的調整包含在我們的收益發布、財務補充和收益演示中,所有這些都可以在我們的網站 aig.com 上找到。

  • Additionally, note that today's remarks will include results of AIG's Life and Retirement segment and Other Operations on the same basis as prior quarters, which is how we expect to continue to report until the deconsolidation of Corebridge Financial. AIG's segments and U.S. GAAP financial results as well as AIG's key financial metrics with respect thereto differ from those reported by Corebridge Financial. Corebridge Financial will host its earnings call on Friday, November 3.

    此外,請注意,今天的評論將包括 AIG 的人壽和退休部門以及其他業務的業績,其基礎與前幾季相同,這也是我們預計在 Corebridge Financial 分拆之前繼續報告的方式。 AIG 的部門和美國公認會計準則財務表現以及 AIG 的相關關鍵財務指標與 Corebridge Financial 報告的數據不同。 Corebridge Financial 將於 11 月 3 日星期五召開財報電話會議。

  • Finally, please note that today's remarks as they relate to net premiums written in General Insurance are presented on a comparable basis, which reflects year-over-year comparison on a constant dollar basis adjusted for the international lag elimination and the sale of Crop Risk Services and the sale of Validus Re. Please refer to the footnote on Page 26 of the third quarter financial supplement for prior period results for Crop Risk Services and Validus Re.

    最後,請注意,今天的評論與普通保險中的淨保費相關,是在可比較的基礎上提出的,這反映了根據國際滯後消除和作物風險服務銷售進行調整的固定美元基礎上的同比比較以及Validus Re 的出售。有關 Crop Risk Services 和 Validus Re 的前期業績,請參閱第三季財務補充資料第 26 頁的註腳。

  • With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Peter Zaffino.

    現在,我想將電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Peter Zaffino。

  • Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

    Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to review our third quarter financial results. Following my remarks, Sabra will provide more detail on the quarter and then we will take questions. Kevin Hogan and David McElroy will join us for the Q&A portion of the call.

    早安,感謝您今天加入我們回顧我們第三季的財務表現。在我發言之後,薩布拉將提供有關本季度的更多詳細信息,然後我們將回答問題。凱文霍根 (Kevin Hogan) 和大衛麥克埃爾羅伊 (David McElroy) 將參加我們電話會議的問答部分。

  • In the third quarter, AIG continued to deliver exceptional results. We made significant progress in our strategic, operational and financial objectives, reflecting continued execution across our entire organization.

    第三季度,AIG 繼續取得優異的業績。我們在策略、營運和財務目標方面取得了重大進展,反映出我們整個組織的持續執行力。

  • During my remarks this morning, I will discuss the following topics: first, AIG's financial results, including Life and Retirement, and provide an update on recent divestitures; second, I will provide the results of AIG's General Insurance business; third, I will provide an update on the casualty insurance market more broadly and AIG's approach to our casualty portfolio; fourth, I will provide an update on our capital management strategy and the progress we have made this quarter. Sabra will provide more detail on AIG's balance sheet and capital position in her remarks. And lastly, I will reconfirm our guidance with respect to our path to a 10%-plus ROCE post deconsolidation of Corebridge.

    在今天早上的演講中,我將討論以下主題:首先,AIG 的財務業績,包括人壽和退休業務,並提供近期資產剝離的最新情況;第二,我會提供AIG普通保險業務的績效;第三,我將提供更廣泛的傷亡保險市場的最新情況以及 AIG 的傷亡保險組合方法;第四,我將介紹我們資本管理策略的最新情況以及我們本季的進展。薩布拉將在演講中提供有關 AIG 資產負債表和資本狀況的更多詳細資訊。最後,我將再次確認我們對 Corebridge 分拆後 ROCE 提高 10% 以上的道路的指導。

  • Financial highlights from the third quarter included: adjusted after-tax income was $1.2 billion or $1.61 per diluted common share, representing a 92% increase year-over-year. Consolidated net investment income on an adjusted pretax income basis was $3.3 billion, a 29% increase year-over-year. In General Insurance, net investment income was $756 million, a 30% increase.

    第三季的財務亮點包括:調整後稅後收入為 12 億美元,即稀釋後普通股每股 1.61 美元,較去年同期成長 92%。調整後稅前收入基礎上的綜合淨投資收益為 33 億美元,年增 29%。普通保險領域的淨投資收入為 7.56 億美元,成長 30%。

  • Net premiums written in General Insurance grew 9%. General Insurance underwriting income in the quarter was $611 million, which improved over 250% from the prior year quarter. The adjusted accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, was 86.3%, a 210 basis point improvement from the prior year quarter, which is an outstanding result.

    一般保險的淨保費增加了 9%。該季度普通保險承保收入為 6.11 億美元,比去年同期成長 250% 以上。調整後的事故年綜合成本率(不包括巨災)為 86.3%,比去年同期提高了 210 個基點,這是一個出色的表現。

  • Our CAT loss ratio was 6.9% with $462 million of total catastrophe losses, including reinstatement premiums, which included $70 million from Validus Re. We had favorable prior year reserve development of $139 million, reflecting favorable loss experience on our portfolio, resulting from our continued focus on underwriting discipline.

    我們的 CAT 損失率為 6.9%,巨災損失總額為 4.62 億美元,其中包括復原保費,其中包括來自 Validus Re 的 7,000 萬美元。我們上一年的儲備金增長為 1.39 億美元,這反映出我們的投資組合在持續關注承保紀律的情況下經歷了良好的損失經驗。

  • The Life and Retirement business also delivered strong results in the third quarter with continued sales momentum and spread expansion. Life and Retirement's adjusted pretax income was $971 million, up 24% year-over-year. Premiums and deposits grew 4% year-over-year to $9.2 billion, driven by strong Fixed Index Annuity sales, which exceeded $2 billion for the third consecutive quarter.

    人壽和退休業務在第三季也取得了強勁的業績,銷售勢頭持續強勁,價差擴大。人壽與退休業務的調整後稅前收入為 9.71 億美元,年增 24%。固定指數年金銷售強勁,連續第三個季度超過 20 億美元,推動保費和存款年增 4%,達到 92 億美元。

  • September marked the 1-year anniversary of Corebridge's initial public offering. And since the IPO, Corebridge has returned approximately $1.4 billion to shareholders and is well on track to its committed payout ratio.

    9 月是 Corebridge 首次公開募股一周年紀念日。自首次公開募股以來,Corebridge 已向股東返還約 14 億美元,並且正在順利實現其承諾的派息率。

  • With respect to our remaining ownership of Corebridge, we continue to evaluate options that are aligned with the best interest of shareholders and our other stakeholders. We're very proud of the achievements that Corebridge has delivered towards its operational separation as a public company, and we remain committed to reducing our ownership and eventually a full separation.

    對於我們對 Corebridge 的剩餘所有權,我們將繼續評估符合股東和其他利害關係人最佳利益的選擇。我們對 Corebridge 作為上市公司在營運分離方面所取得的成就感到非常自豪,我們仍然致力於減少我們的所有權並最終實現完全分離。

  • Turning to AIG's balance sheet. During the quarter, AIG returned over $1 billion to shareholders through $785 million of common stock repurchases and $261 million of dividends. In addition, we purchased $170 million of common stock in October. We deployed $289 million to retire Validus Re debt prior to the close of the transaction yesterday. And we ended the quarter with $3.6 billion of parent liquidity.

    轉向 AIG 的資產負債表。本季度,AIG 透過 7.85 億美元的普通股回購和 2.61 億美元的股息向股東返還超過 10 億美元。此外,我們在 10 月購買了 1.7 億美元的普通股。在昨天交易結束之前,我們部署了 2.89 億美元來償還 Validus Re 債務。本季結束時,我們的母公司流動資金為 36 億美元。

  • During the quarter, we continued to make significant progress on our strategic repositioning as we have further simplified our portfolio, which we've talked about over the past several quarters. Yesterday, we announced the successful closing of the sale of Validus Re to RenaissanceRe for which we received a total consideration of $3.3 billion in cash, including a pre-close dividend and approximately $275 million at RenaissanceRe common stock. This divestiture streamlines our business model, simplifies our portfolio and further reduces our volatility.

    在本季度,我們在策略重新定位方面繼續取得重大進展,因為我們進一步簡化了我們的投資組合,我們在過去幾個季度中已經討論過這一點。昨天,我們宣布成功完成 Validus Re 向 RenaissanceRe 的出售,我們收到了總價 33 億美元的現金,包括收盤前股息和大約 2.75 億美元的 RenaissanceRe 普通股。此次剝離簡化了我們的業務模式,簡化了我們的投資組合,並進一步降低了我們的波動性。

  • Prior to closing the Validus Re transaction, we entered into an agreement with Enstar Group to provide AIG with protection against any adverse development on the 95% portion of Validus Re's loss reserves that AIG retains exposure to. The cost will be included in the gain on sale in the fourth quarter.

    在完成 Validus Re 交易之前,我們與 Enstar Group 簽訂了一項協議,為 AIG 提供保護,防止 AIG 保留的 Validus Re 損失準備金的 95% 部分出現任何不利發展。該成本將計入第四季的銷售收益。

  • Enstar will provide $400 million of limit for an adverse development cover in excess of carried loss reserves on assumed reinsurance contracts underwritten by Validus Re with respect to accident year 2022 and prior. This ADC limit provides additional protection against downside exposure to reserves in excess of the expected redundancy to a modeled confidence level above the 90th percentile. Importantly, while we believe this ADC is prudent to mitigate the risk of any future adverse reserve development, we will benefit from any future favorable reserve development.

    Enstar 將為超過 Validus Re 承保的 2022 年及之前事故年度再保險合約的附帶損失準備金的不利發展保險提供 4 億美元的限額。此 ADC 限制提供了額外的保護,防止儲備的下行風險超過預期冗餘,達到高於第 90 個百分位數的建模置信水準。重要的是,雖然我們認為該 ADC 可以謹慎地降低未來任何不利儲備開發的風險,但我們將從任何未來有利的儲備開發中受益。

  • In August, Corebridge entered into a definitive agreement to sell Laya Healthcare to AXA for EUR 650 million, which closed on October 31. Proceeds to Corebridge, net of purchase price adjustments and deal-related expenses, will be approximately $730 million. It was announced that the proceeds will be used for a special dividend to Corebridge shareholders as of November 13.

    8 月,Corebridge 簽訂了最終協議,以 6.5 億歐元的價格將 Laya Healthcare 出售給 AXA,該協議於 10 月 31 日完成。扣除購買價格調整和交易相關費用後,Corebridge 的收益約為 7.3 億美元。據宣布,自 11 月 13 日起,所得款項將用於向 Corebridge 股東派發特別股利。

  • In September, Corebridge entered into a definitive agreement to sell the U.K. Life Insurance business to Aviva plc for GBP 460 million. We expect the transaction to close sometime in the second quarter of 2024, subject to regulatory approvals. We anticipate that the proceeds from this transaction will largely be used for share repurchases, subject to market conditions. Both transactions streamline the Corebridge portfolio and allow the company to focus on its Life and Retirement products and solutions in the United States.

    9 月,Corebridge 簽訂最終協議,以 4.6 億英鎊將英國人壽保險業務出售給 Aviva plc。我們預計該交易將在 2024 年第二季的某個時間完成,具體取決於監管部門的批准。我們預計本次交易的收益將主要用於股票回購,具體取決於市場狀況。這兩筆交易都簡化了 Corebridge 的投資組合,使該公司能夠專注於美國的人壽和退休產品及解決方案。

  • Turning to General Insurance, gross premiums written were $8.9 billion, a decrease of 1% from prior year quarter. Net premiums written were $6.5 billion, an increase of 9% from the prior year quarter. Global Commercial grew 6%, and Global Personal grew 16% from the prior year quarter. North America Commercial net premiums written increased 5% in the third quarter.

    至於普通保險,毛保費為 89 億美元,比去年同期下降 1%。淨承保保費為 65 億美元,比去年同期成長 9%。全球商業業務較去年同期成長 6%,全球個人業務較去年同期成長 16%。第三季北美商業淨承保保費成長了 5%。

  • There are many variables in this quarter, and I want to provide more detail. The key businesses that drove growth were Lexington's core business, excluding Lexington programs, grew over 25% in the quarter, led by wholesale casualty, which grew 33%; and wholesale property, which grew 27%. Glatfelter grew 12%, and Retail Property grew 11%.

    這個季度有很多變數,我想提供更多細節。推動成長的關鍵業務是列剋星敦的核心業務(不包括列剋星敦專案),本季成長超過 25%,其中批發傷亡險成長 33%,增幅最大;批發房地產成長了 27%。 Glatfelter 成長 12%,零售房地產成長 11%。

  • In terms of headwinds, in 2022, we made the underwriting decision to not renew 2 large Lexington programs. We took this action because we believe that these programs had meaningful CAT exposure in peak zones. And we do not believe the appropriate CAT loads were reflected in the pricing. These programs were not the best deployment of capital in order to achieve our targeted risk-adjusted returns. Those nonrenewals tempered overall growth in Lexington.

    就不利因素而言,2022 年,我們做出了不再續約 2 個大型列剋星敦計畫的核保決定。我們採取這一行動是因為我們相信這些計劃在峰值區域具有有意義的 CAT 暴露。我們認為適當的 CAT 負載並未反映在定價中。這些計劃並不是實現我們目標風險調整回報的最佳資本配置。這些不續簽限制了列剋星敦的整體成長。

  • Lexington program's net premiums written reduced by 57% in the quarter. We believe, over time, we will replace this business on an individual risk basis as stronger risk-adjusted returns. However, it is a headwind in the quarter. The impact of the net premiums written associated with these 2 programs was approximately $115 million in the third quarter.

    列剋星敦計畫本季的淨承保保費減少了 57%。我們相信,隨著時間的推移,我們將取代這項基於個人風險的業務,以獲得更強的風險調整回報。然而,這是本季的不利因素。第三季與這兩個計劃相關的淨保費影響約為 1.15 億美元。

  • Also offsetting growth in North America was Financial Lines, which declined 11%, accounting for approximately 20% of North America Commercial Lines net premiums written in the quarter. In North America Financial Lines, large account public D&O remains competitive as a result of excess capacity driven by new entrants to the market.

    金融保險公司也抵消了北美地區的成長,該公司下降了 11%,約佔北美商業保險公司本季淨保費的 20%。在北美金融線,由於市場新進業者導致產能過剩,大客戶公共 D&O 仍具有競爭力。

  • Our renewal retention in our primary business remains strong, but retentions in our excess business were more challenged. New business in our excess book was down year-over-year as we were very disciplined in the current environment.

    我們主要業務的續約保留率仍然強​​勁,但超額業務的保留率面臨更大挑戰。由於我們在當前環境下非常自律,我們的超額帳簿中的新業務逐年下降。

  • Rate reductions remain most prevalent on excess layers, particularly the higher excess layer vertical towers where it's more commoditized and the most pressure exists on pricing. In primary, where we are one of the few market leaders, rates remained flat to slightly down. We remain confident in our approach to Financial Lines. We have a global business with scale, focused on underwriting profit over top line growth, which is reflected in the results this quarter.

    費率降低在多餘層上仍然最為普遍,特別是較高的多餘層立式塔,其商品化程度更高,定價壓力最大。在初級市場,我們是少數的市場領導者之一,利率保持持平或略有下降。我們對我們的金融業務方法仍然充滿信心。我們擁有規模化的全球業務,專注於承保利潤而非營收成長,這反映在本季的業績中。

  • In International Commercial, net premiums written grew 7%, primarily driven by property, which was up 13%; global specialty, which was up 12%, led by energy and marine; and Talbot, which was up 7%.

    在國際商業業務中,淨承保保費增長了 7%,主要是由財產保險增長 13% 推動的;全球特種產品上漲 12%,其中能源和海事領漲;塔爾博特 (Talbot) 上漲 7%。

  • Global Commercial had very strong renewal retention of 87% in its in-force portfolio. North America was up 200 basis points to 87%, and International was up 300 basis points to 88%. As a reminder, we calculate renewal retention prior to the impact of rate and exposure changes.

    Global Commercial 的有效投資組合中的續約保留率非常高,達到 87%。北美上漲 200 個基點至 87%,國際上漲 300 個基點至 88%。提醒一下,我們在費率和曝光變化的影響之前計算續訂保留率。

  • And across Global Commercial, we continue to see very strong new business, which was approximately $1 billion in the third quarter. North America Commercial produced new business of $516 million, an increase of 13% year-over-year or 27% if you exclude Financial Lines. This growth was driven by Lexington Casualty, which saw excellent new business growth of over 90%, as well as Western World, which grew over 50%.

    在全球商業領域,我們繼續看到非常強勁的新業務,第三季約為 10 億美元。北美商業產生了 5.16 億美元的新業務,年增 13%,如果不包括金融業務,則成長 27%。這一成長是由 Lexington Casualty 和 Western World 推動的,前者的新業務成長超過 90%,後者成長超過 50%。

  • Retail Property grew new business by 26%, and retail casualty grew new business by 25%. This was offset by Financial Lines where new business contracted by about 30% as a result of our underwriting discipline.

    零售房地產新業務成長 26%,零售傷亡新業務成長 25%。這被金融險業務所抵消,由於我們的核保紀律,新業務收縮了約 30%。

  • International Commercial produced new business of $532 million or 12% growth year-over-year. This growth was led by Talbot new business, which increased almost 50% year-over-year, and Global Specialty, which grew new business by over 40%, and it was balanced across the portfolio.

    國際商業公司創造了 5.32 億美元的新業務,年增 12%。這一成長主要由 Talbot 新業務(年成長近 50%)和 Global Specialty(新業務成長超過 40%)帶動,並且在整個投資組合中保持平衡。

  • Moving to rate. In North America Commercial, rate increased 5.4% in the third quarter or 6% excluding workers' compensation. Exposure in the quarter added 3 points, bringing the total pricing change, excluding workers' comp, to 9%.

    轉向評分。北美商業業第三季利率上漲 5.4%,不包括工人賠償則上漲 6%。本季的風險敞口增加了 3 個百分點,使總價格變化(不包括工人補償)達到 9%。

  • Rate increases were driven by Lexington wholesale, which was up 15%, marking the 18th consecutive quarter of double-digit rate increases, led by Lexington wholesale property, which was up 28%, Retail Property was up 27% and admitted excess casualty was up 12%. Financial Lines rate was down 8%.

    費率上漲是由列剋星敦批發地產帶動的,上漲了15%,這是連續第18 個季度實現兩位數的漲幅,其中列剋星敦批發地產上漲了28%,零售地產上漲了27%,並承認超額傷亡人數增加。12%。 Financial Lines 利率下降 8%。

  • In International Commercial, rate increased 4%, and the exposure increase was 2%. The rate increase was driven by property, which was up 13%; energy, which was up 10%; and Talbot, which was up 9%.

    國際商業方面,費率增加了 4%,風險敞口增加了 2%。利率上漲的推動因素是房地產,上漲了 13%;能源,上漲10%;塔爾博特 (Talbot) 上漲 9%。

  • Turning to Personal Insurance, net premiums written increased 16% year-over-year, primarily driven by North America. In North America, Personal net premiums written increased 59%. Similar to last quarter, the increase was driven by business underwritten on behalf of PCS, offset by decreases in Travel and Warranty.

    個人保險方面,淨承保保費年增 16%,主要由北美地區推動。在北美,個人淨承保保費增加了 59%。與上個季度類似,成長是由代表 PCS 承保的業務推動的,但被旅行和保固的減少所抵消。

  • In the third quarter, AIG's net premiums written from PCS increased by over 100%, benefiting from an increase in gross premiums written and a reduction in quota share sessions. And as expected, the lag in earned premium growth continued to dissipate, providing operating leverage and a reduced expense ratio, primarily in general operating expenses.

    第三季度,AIG的PCS淨保費成長超過100%,受益於毛保費的增加和配額份額會話的減少。正如預期的那樣,已賺取保費成長的滯後現象繼續消失,提供了營運槓桿並降低了費用率(主要是一般營運費用)。

  • The high and ultra high net worth business also had significant improvement in the accident year loss ratio, benefiting from improved pricing in our admitted business and transitioning more business to the non-admitted market. We expect PCS to continue to improve its financial performance and provide more operating leverage in the fourth quarter and into 2024.

    高淨值和超高淨值業務的事故年損失率也有顯著改善,受益於我們准入業務定價的改善以及更多業務向非准入市場的轉移。我們預計 PCS 將在第四季和 2024 年繼續改善其財務表現並提供更多的營運槓桿。

  • In International Personal, net premiums written increased by 3% year-over-year, driven by growth in personal auto, travel, and that reflects the rebound post-pandemic and Japan personal property. The accident year loss ratio, ex CAT, improved 560 basis points. Overall, we're pleased with the International Personal improvement year-over-year.

    在國際個人保險方面,受個人汽車、旅遊成長的推動,淨承保保費年增 3%,這反映了疫情後的反彈和日本個人財產的反彈。事故年損失率(不包括 CAT)改善了 560 個基點。整體而言,我們對國際個人的逐年進步感到滿意。

  • Shifting to combined ratios. The General Insurance third quarter combined ratio was 90.5%, a 680 basis point improvement from the prior year quarter. Accident year combined ratio, ex CAT, was 86.3%, a 210 basis point improvement from the prior year quarter.

    轉向組合比率。一般保險第三季綜合成本率為 90.5%,較去年同期增加 680 個基點。事故年綜合成本率(不包括 CAT)為 86.3%,比去年同期提高了 210 個基點。

  • Global Commercial had an outstanding performance with third quarter accident year combined ratio, ex CAT, of 81.7%, a 130 basis point improvement year-over-year. The accident year combined ratio, including CAT, was 89.7%, a 500 basis point improvement from the prior year quarter.

    全球商業表現出色,第三季事故年綜合比率(不包括 CAT)為 81.7%,較去年同期提高 130 個基點。包括 CAT 在內的事故年綜合比率為 89.7%,比去年同期提高了 500 個基點。

  • The North America Commercial accident year combined ratio, ex CAT, was 83%. And the International Commercial accident year combined ratio, ex CAT, was 79.7%, both of which were exceptional outcomes.

    北美商業事故年綜合成本率(不包括 CAT)為 83%。國際商業事故年綜合比率(不包括 CAT)為 79.7%,這兩個結果都非常出色。

  • We would like to provide a perspective both with and without Validus Re and Crop Risk Services. As I said, the third quarter Global Commercial accident year combined ratio, ex CAT, was 81.7%, and the calendar year combined ratio was 86.6%. Excluding Validus Re from the third quarter results, the Global Commercial accident year combined ratio would essentially have been flat, and the calendar year combined ratio would have improved by slightly over 100 basis points from the third quarter to 85.4%.

    我們希望提供有或沒有 Validus Re 和作物風險服務的觀點。正如我所說,第三季全球商業事故年綜合成本率(不包括 CAT)為 81.7%,歷年綜合成本率為 86.6%。如果將 Validus Re 排除在第三季業績之外,全球商業事故年綜合成本率將基本持平,日曆年綜合成本率將比第三季略高於 100 個基點,達到 85.4%。

  • And for the first 9 months, the Global Commercial accident year combined ratio, ex CAT, was 83.6%, and the calendar year combined ratio was 87.6%. Excluding Crop and Validus Re from the 9-month period results, the Global Commercial accident year combined ratio, ex CAT, would have increased by 70 basis points to 84.3%, and the calendar year combined ratio would have increased by 50 basis points to 88.1%.

    前 9 個月,全球商業事故年綜合成本率(不含 CAT)為 83.6%,歷年綜合成本率為 87.6%。從 9 個月期間的表現中剔除 Crop 和 Validus Re 後,全球商業事故年綜合比率(不包括 CAT)將增加 70 個基點,達到 84.3%,日曆年綜合比率將增加 50 個基點,達到 88.1 %。

  • Global Personal reported a third quarter accident year combined ratio, ex CAT, of 99%, a 380 basis point improvement from the prior year quarter due in part to the North America PCS business.

    Global Personal 報告稱,第三季事故年綜合比率(不包括 CAT)為 99%,比去年同期提高了 380 個基點,部分原因是北美 PCS 業務。

  • Related to casualty liability and the excess casualty market, in particular in the United States, the level of narrative has increased over the last several years, driven in part by multiple mass tort events as well as rising economic and social inflation. The latter has been fueled by an exponential increase in third-party litigation funding, average severity trend increases and a precipitous rise in jury awards following the lull during the pandemic.

    與傷亡責任和過度傷亡市場相關的敘事水平在過去幾年中有所增加,尤其是在美國,部分原因是多起大規模侵權事件以及不斷上升的經濟和社會通貨膨脹。後者的推動因素包括第三方訴訟資金呈指數級增長、平均嚴重程度趨勢的增加以及大流行期間平靜期後陪審團裁決的急劇增加。

  • Over the past couple of years, I've spoken extensively about our portfolio remediation strategy, including where AIG has reduced gross limits since 2018 by $1.4 trillion. We have established strong underwriting guidelines and strong partnerships with reinsurers to manage both frequency and severity.

    在過去的幾年裡,我廣泛談論了我們的投資組合補救策略,包括 AIG 自 2018 年以來將總限額減少了 1.4 兆美元。我們與再保險公司建立了強有力的承保指南並建立了牢固的合作夥伴關係,以管理頻率和嚴重程度。

  • We have filed a similar strategy with our casualty portfolio with more of a focus on severity. When we began the underwriting turnaround in AIG in 2017, we found that the prior strategy in casualty was similar to that in the property business, which was to write large limits with a gross and net risk appetite much greater than what we offer today.

    我們已經對我們的傷亡組合提出了類似的策略,並且更關注嚴重程度。當我們在 2017 年開始對 AIG 進行承保轉型時,我們發現先前的意外險策略與房地產業務相似,即承保大額限額,總風險偏好和淨風險偏好都比我們今天提供的要大得多。

  • As I've outlined before, it was not uncommon to put out significant limits on any individual risk in excess of $100 million net on an occurrence basis. As we developed an entirely new framework and approach to underwriting, it required a change to our underwriting strategy.

    正如我之前概述的那樣,對每次發生的淨額超過 1 億美元的個人風險設定重大限制的情況並不罕見。當我們發展出全新的承保框架和方法時,我們需要改變我們的承保策略。

  • Today, our global casualty portfolio represents 12% of our total gross premiums written and 13% of our net premiums written. The North America segment represents 55%, and the International segment represents 45% of that number. And since North America has been the topic of discussion, I will focus on what we have done in that portfolio.

    如今,我們的全球意外險投資組合占我們總承保保費的 12% 和淨承保保費的 13%。北美市場佔 55%,國際市場佔 45%。由於北美一直是討論的主題,我將重點放在我們在該投資組合中所做的事情。

  • In North America casualty, our gross limit for our excess casualty portfolio, including lead umbrella, has decreased by over 50% since 2018. Our average limit size has also reduced by over 50%. Average lead attachment points, which protect us from frequency and lower severity losses, have more than doubled since 2018.

    在北美傷亡方面,自 2018 年以來,我們對超額傷亡投資組合(包括鉛傘)的總限額已減少 50% 以上。我們的平均限額規模也減少了 50% 以上。自 2018 年以來,平均引線連接點增加了一倍多,可以保護我們免受頻繁和較低嚴重程度的損失。

  • In terms of gross pricing, primary auto and primary general liability, rates have increased approximately 200% since 2018, and excess casualty rates have increased by over 250%, remaining well above loss cost trends.

    就總定價、主要汽車責任和主要一般責任而言,自 2018 年以來,費率增加了約 200%,超額傷亡率增加了 250% 以上,仍遠高於損失成本趨勢。

  • In addition to the significant investment in underwriting excellence and talent, we built and executed on a strategic reinsurance program to further mitigate our net exposure and volatility. What once was $100 million net exposure for AIG, there's now a maximum net on any one claim of $15 million in International and $11.5 million in North America.

    除了對卓越承保和人才進行大量投資外,我們還制定並執行了策略再保險計劃,以進一步減輕我們的淨風險和波動性。 AIG 的淨風險敞口曾經為 1 億美元,現在國際索賠的最高淨額為 1,500 萬美元,北美的最高淨額為 1,150 萬美元。

  • And in our excess of loss treaties, we have reinstatement limits that exhaust based on extensive modeling done at the [1,000] return periods. This adequately protects AIG from vertical exposure with significant limit available in the event there are multiple losses.

    在我們的超額損失條約中,我們有恢復限制,該限制基於在 [1,000] 個回報期間進行的廣泛建模。這充分保護了 AIG 免受垂直暴露的影響,並且在發生多次損失的情況下可提供顯著的限制。

  • Notably, the period prior to 2016 is covered by an adverse development cover for U.S. long-tail commercial lines. We purchased 80% of a $25 billion -- excess of $25 billion on payments made on or after January 1, 2016, for business written prior to 2016. The $25 billion retention was exceeded during the fourth quarter of 2020. We currently have $9 billion of the total unused recoverable limit left or $7.2 billion at the 80% level.

    值得注意的是,2016 年之前的時期屬於美國長尾商業航線不利的發展保障範圍。我們購買了250 億美元中的80%——對於2016 年之前簽訂的業務,超過2016 年1 月1 日或之後支付的250 億美元。2020 年第四季度超過了250 億美元的保留。我們目前有90 億美元未使用的可收回限額總額或 72 億美元處於 80% 的水平。

  • Conflicting views have emerged in the market on the combination of gross portfolio underwriting with the strategic use of reinsurance. There have been comments particularly recently that the use of reinsurance is not required if you're comfortable with the gross portfolio. We disagree and simply don't support that as a viable strategy for AIG.

    對於投資組合承保總額與再保險策略運用的結合,市場上出現了相互矛盾的觀點。最近有評論稱,如果您對總投資組合感到滿意,則不需要使用再保險。我們不同意,也不支持將其作為 AIG 的可行策略。

  • We prefer to balance our approach and have developed a strong underwriting culture, which we have dramatically improved over the last 5 years, executing on the fundamentals of disciplined and consistent underwriting, being very focused on preempting the evolving changes in the market and using reinsurance strategically to mitigate unpredictable outcomes.

    我們更喜歡平衡我們的方法,並發展了強大的核保文化,在過去5 年裡,我們已經顯著改善了這種文化,執行嚴格和一致承保的基本原則,非常注重搶佔市場不斷變化的變化,並策略性地利用再保險以減輕不可預測的結果。

  • Building long-term strategic relationships with our reinsurance partners for all of our reinsurance needs has been key to repositioning AIG. Insurers cannot reverse social and economic inflation. However, we are in control of how we predict and respond to the impact of these changes to the forward-looking landscape, including how we manage our underwriting through coverage provided, limits deployed, attachment points and pricing.

    與我們的再保險合作夥伴建立長期策略關係以滿足我們所有的再保險需求是 AIG 重新定位的關鍵。保險公司無法扭轉社會經濟通貨膨脹。然而,我們可以控制如何預測和應對這些變化對前瞻性格局的影響,包括如何透過提供的承保範圍、部署的限額、附加點和定價來管理我們的承保。

  • Our business is not immune from social inflation, but we anticipated it early, and we took action. The consequence is that we're very pleased with our existing portfolio, and we're well positioned to be able to prudently take advantage of opportunities that exist in the current marketplace.

    我們的業務無法免受社會通貨膨脹的影響,但我們很早就預見了這一點,並採取了行動。結果是,我們對現有的投資組合非常滿意,並且我們處於有利位置,能夠謹慎地利用當前市場中存在的機會。

  • Turning to capital management. We use a balanced framework that remains focused on having ample capital in our insurance company subsidiaries to support organic growth in our business, continuing share repurchases, debt reduction in line with the lower end of the targets we provided and dividend increases. Lastly, we will consider compelling inorganic growth opportunities to meet our strategic objectives should they emerge.

    轉向資本管理。我們採用平衡的框架,重點是在我們的保險公司子公司中擁有充足的資本,以支持我們業務的有機成長、持續股票回購、根據我們提供的目標下限減少債務以及增加股息。最後,我們將考慮引人注目的無機成長機會,以實現我們的策略目標(如果出現)。

  • We finished the third quarter with $3.6 billion of available liquidity prior to receiving the proceeds of the sale of Validus Re or the special dividend from the sale of Laya Healthcare. Together, they should contribute approximately another $3.7 billion in the fourth quarter. Our primary use of proceeds will be on share repurchases. We plan to accelerate our repurchase activity this quarter and as we enter 2024, and we expect to reduce debt outstanding to further strengthen the balance sheet.

    在收到出售 Validus Re 的收益或出售 Laya Healthcare 的特別股息之前,我們第三季末的可用流動資金為 36 億美元。他們預計將在第四季再貢獻約 37 億美元。我們的收益主要用途將用於股票回購。我們計劃在本季以及進入 2024 年時加快回購活動,並預計減少未償債務以進一步強化資產負債表。

  • We remain mindful of our leverage as a key consideration with our accelerated share repurchases. We expect to execute on the current share repurchase authorization of $7.5 billion, which will reduce shares outstanding to close to 600 million shares subject to market conditions.

    我們仍然牢記我們的槓桿率,這是我們加速股票回購的關鍵考慮因素。我們預計將執行目前 75 億美元的股票回購授權,這將根據市場情況將流通股減少至接近 6 億股。

  • Related to return on common equity, as we have outlined on our prior calls, we remain very focused on delivering a 10%-plus ROCE post deconsolidation of Corebridge. During the third quarter, we continue to make significant progress at all 4 components of our path to deliver on this commitment and how we are positioning AIG for the future.

    與普通股回報率相關,正如我們在先前的電話會議中概述的那樣,我們仍然非常注重在 Corebridge 分拆後實現 10% 以上的 ROCE。第三季度,我們繼續在履行這項承諾以及如何定位 AIG 的未來的道路的所有 4 個組成部分方面取得重大進展。

  • I want to provide a few observations. In the last 90 days, we've continued to improve our underwriting results on an accident year and calendar year basis. We made recent leadership changes in General Insurance, which have effectively eliminated a management layer from the business, and we will continue this process throughout the organization in 2024.

    我想提供一些觀察。在過去 90 天裡,我們繼續改善以事故年和日曆年為基礎的承保績效。我們最近在普通保險領域進行了領導層變動,這實際上消除了業務中的管理層,我們將在 2024 年在整個組織中繼續這一過程。

  • We have strengthened the capital position of insurance company subsidiaries to enable continued profitable growth. We've moved into the final stages of the operational separation for Corebridge. We have announced and closed several divestitures and have repositioned the portfolio to support our strategy for the future. We have accelerated the progress we're making on our capital management strategy and have created a strong liquidity position.

    我們加強了保險公司子公司的資本狀況,以實現持續的獲利成長。我們已經進入 Corebridge 營運分離的最後階段。我們已經宣布並完成了多項資產剝離,並重新定位了投資組合,以支持我們的未來策略。我們加快了資本管理策略的進展,並創造了強大的流動性狀況。

  • The catalyst to achieving our targets remains the deconsolidation of Corebridge. This will allow AIG to simplify its business, eliminate duplication by combining our General Insurance business and our corporate functions, and create a leaner operating model for the future.

    實現我們目標的催化劑仍然是 Corebridge 的分拆。這將使 AIG 能夠簡化其業務,透過結合我們的普通保險業務和公司職能來消除重複,並為未來創建更精簡的營運模式。

  • Before I turn it over to Sabra, I'd like to add a few more details on the closing of the sale of Validus Re to RenaissanceRe. In January of 2018, AIG announced it was acquiring Validus Holdings to position it for future growth and profitability improvement. Over the last several years, we reshaped Validus Re's portfolio by reducing the catastrophe exposure in certain U.S. peak zones while diversifying the business significantly to develop a more balanced portfolio in both property and casualty reinsurance in order to improve profitability.

    在將其轉交給 Sabra 之前,我想補充一些有關 Validus Re 向 RenaissanceRe 出售的交易的更多細節。 2018 年 1 月,AIG 宣布收購 Validus Holdings,為其未來成長和獲利能力提升做好準備。在過去幾年中,我們透過減少美國某些高峰地區的巨災風險,同時大幅實現業務多元化,在財產和傷亡再保險方面開發更加平衡的投資組合,從而重塑了Validus Re 的投資組合,從而提高盈利能力。

  • Validus Re posted its first accident year combined ratio below 100% in 2022. And as we look back, we are grateful for the hard work, determination and perseverance of the team to dramatically improve the quality of the portfolio, particularly year-to-date in 2023, and it's evident in its performance today.

    Validus Re 於 2022 年首次實現事故年綜合比率低於 100%。當我們回顧過去時,我們感謝團隊的辛勤工作、決心和毅力,極大地提高了投資組合的質量,特別是年初至今2023 年,這一點在今天的表現中顯而易見。

  • We are very proud of Validus Re's results and are pleased that the company acquiring Validus Re is RenaissanceRe. Through Kevin O'Donnell and his leadership team's terrific work, RenaissanceRe has become one of the world's most well-respected reinsurers. We are looking forward to continuing our strong partnership with RenaissanceRe, which will be further enhanced as we become an investor in RenRe's capital partner vehicles, allowing us to benefit from their future performance.

    我們對 Validus Re 的業績感到非常自豪,並很高興收購 Validus Re 的公司是 RenaissanceRe。透過 Kevin O'Donnell 及其領導團隊的出色工作,RenaissanceRe 已成為世界上最受尊敬的再保險公司之一。我們期待繼續與 RenaissanceRe 保持牢固的合作關係,隨著我們成為 RenRe 資本合作夥伴工具的投資者,這種合作關係將得到進一步加強,使我們能夠從他們未來的業績中受益。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Sabra.

    這樣,我會將電話轉給 Sabra。

  • Sabra Rose Purtill - Executive VP & CFO

    Sabra Rose Purtill - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Peter. This morning, I will provide more detail on AIG's third quarter, including General Insurance reserves, net investment income, Life and Retirement results and balance sheet and capital management.

    謝謝你,彼得。今天上午,我將提供有關 AIG 第三季度的更多詳細信息,包括普通保險準備金、淨投資收入、人壽和退休業績以及資產負債表和資本管理。

  • Adjusted after-tax income attributable to common shareholders this quarter was $1.2 billion, up 80% from 3Q '22, for an annualized adjusted ROCE of 8.5%. AATI per diluted share was $1.61, up 92%, reflecting the accretive impact of share repurchases over the last year. The earnings growth resulted from the 82% increase in General Insurance adjusted pretax income to $1.4 billion, driven by top line growth, improved underwriting results and higher investment income.

    本季調整後歸屬於普通股股東的稅後收入為 12 億美元,比 22 年第三季成長 80%,年化調整後 ROCE 為 8.5%。稀釋後每股 AATI 為 1.61 美元,成長 92%,反映了去年股票回購的增值影響。獲利成長源自於普通保險調整後稅前收入成長 82% 至 14 億美元,主要得益於營收成長、承保業績改善和投資收入增加。

  • It's important to note that while Life and Retirement also had strong earnings, AIG's ownership of Corebridge decreased to 65.6% this quarter compared to 90.1% before the IPO. And therefore, our results include a lower percentage of their consolidated earnings than last year. In total, Corebridge contributed about $32 million to the $514 million increase in AIG's adjusted after-tax income.

    值得注意的是,雖然人壽和退休業務也有強勁的盈利,但本季 AIG 對 Corebridge 的持股比例從 IPO 前的 90.1% 降至 65.6%。因此,我們的業績佔其合併收益的比例低於去年。總的來說,Corebridge 為 AIG 調整後的稅後收入增加了 5.14 億美元,貢獻了約 3,200 萬美元。

  • Turning to General Insurance. Peter summarized our underwriting results, but I want to cover prior year development and reserves in more detail. In the quarter, General Insurance prior year development, net of reinsurance, totaled $139 million favorable, including $41 million from the amortization of deferred gain on the adverse development cover. About $129 million, including the ADC gain, resulted from the detailed valuation reviews, or DVRs, with the balance from other items like catastrophes.

    轉向一般保險。彼得總結了我們的承保結果,但我想更詳細地介紹上一年的發展和儲備。本季度,普通保險上一年的發展(扣除再保險)總計 1.39 億美元,其中包括來自不利發展保險遞延收益攤銷的 4,100 萬美元。大約 1.29 億美元(包括 ADC 收益)來自詳細的估值審查(DVR),其餘則來自災難等其他項目。

  • The DVRs covered $34.1 billion of loss reserves on a pre-ADC basis, about 70% of the total. The DVRs of particular note this quarter were for International Casualty and Financial Lines, North America Financial Lines and North America workers' compensation, which last year was completed in the second quarter. In total, North America had $154 million of favorable development, including $39 million from the ADC. International was $15 million unfavorable.

    在 ADC 之前,DVR 彌補了 341 億美元的損失準備金,約佔總額的 70%。本季特別值得注意的 DVR 是國際傷亡和金融保險、北美金融保險和北美工人賠償保險,這些保險於去年第二季完成。北美地區總共獲得了 1.54 億美元的有利發展,其中 3,900 萬美元來自 ADC。國際虧損1500萬美元。

  • Consistent with our prior comments, casualty, bodily injury, securities class actions and medical workers' comp trends have been and continue to be more favorable than our reserving assumptions. We believe that our changes in underwriting standards reduced limits, higher attachment points on primary limits, tightened terms and conditions and better risk selection are driving the improved experience, particularly in financial lines and casualty.

    與我們先前的評論一致,傷亡、人身傷害、證券集體訴訟和醫務人員的薪酬趨勢已經並將繼續比我們的保留假設更有利。我們相信,我們承保標準的變化減少了限額,提高了主要限額的附加點,收緊了條款和條件以及更好的風險選擇,正在推動體驗的改善,特別是在財務險種和傷亡險方面。

  • Nevertheless, our philosophy is to react to bad news quickly and to allow time for favorable trends in recent accident years to mature, particularly given the impact of COVID on recent years. Therefore, this quarter's favorable development is generally from older accident years or from short-tail lines like property where physical damage claims come in quickly.

    儘管如此,我們的理念是對壞消息迅速做出反應,並為最近幾年的有利趨勢留出時間成熟,特別是考慮到近年來新冠疫情的影響。因此,本季的有利發展通常來自較早的事故年份或來自財產損失索賠迅速到來的短尾產品線。

  • In Financial Lines, changes from the DVRs were immaterial. North America had modest adverse development on an older Lexington architect and engineers book, offset by favorability in Canada. U.K. Financial Lines had slight adverse development, reflecting emerged experience on older D&O and professional indemnity claims, partially offset by favorable experience in Europe and Japan.

    在 Financial Lines 中,DVR 帶來的改變並不重要。北美對列剋星敦的一本較舊的建築師和工程師書籍有適度的不利發展,但被加拿大的好感所抵消。英國金融險險業務略有不利發展,反映了舊的 D&O 和專業賠償索賠方面的經驗,但部分被歐洲和日本的有利經驗所抵消。

  • We also reviewed International casualty lines this quarter. Peter discussed our changes in underwriting limits and reinsurance on our global casualty book. I would add that we also evaluate economic and social inflation trends as well as our potential exposure to mass torts across the total book and hold reserves to address those items.

    我們也審查了本季的國際傷亡險線。彼得在我們的全球傷亡手冊上討論了我們在承保限額和再保險方面的變化。我想補充一點,我們也評估經濟和社會通貨膨脹趨勢,以及我們在整個帳簿中潛在的大規模侵權風險,並持有儲備來解決這些問題。

  • This quarter, we had adverse development in U.K. and European casualty, principally from commercial auto in France and large loss experience on a few older claims in both the U.K. and Europe. Consistent with prior trends, the DVRs for workers' compensation were favorable both for years covered by the ADC and after.

    本季度,我們在英國和歐洲的傷亡事故中出現了不利的發展,主要來自法國的商用汽車事故,以及英國和歐洲一些舊索賠的巨額損失經歷。與先前的趨勢一致,工人賠償的 DVR 在 ADC 涵蓋的年份和之後的年份都是有利的。

  • Finally, property lines and Personal Insurance had favorable development in both North America and International, while we had about $23 million of adverse development on prior year catastrophes. We will complete the balance of annual DVRs next quarter, which cover about $6 billion of reserves on a number of smaller lines.

    最後,財產保險和個人保險在北美和國際市場都取得了良好的發展,而前一年的災難導致了約 2,300 萬美元的不利發展。我們將在下個季度完成年度 DVR 的餘額,其中包括一些較小線路的約 60 億美元的儲備金。

  • Net investment income also contributed to earnings growth in the quarter, driven principally by higher reinvestment rates on fixed maturities and loans. The average new money yield on fixed maturities and loans was 5.88% this quarter, about 145 basis points above the yield on sales and maturities, and it was about 130 and 150 basis points higher in General Insurance and Life and Retirement, respectively. Year-to-date, the total new money yield is about 202 basis points higher than sales and maturities.

    淨投資收入也推動了本季的獲利成長,這主要是由於固定期限和貸款的再投資率上升。本季固定期限和貸款的平均新貨幣收益率為 5.88%,比銷售和到期收益率高出約 145 個基點,普通保險、人壽和退休險分別高出約 130 和 150 個基點。今年迄今為止,新貨幣總收益率比銷售和到期收益率高出約 202 個基點。

  • The portfolio yield in General Insurance increased 9 basis points sequentially and 88 basis points over the last year with net investment income growth of 30%. The L&R investment income rose 23%, and the portfolio yield improved 9 basis points and 63 basis points, respectively. Based on the current treasury yield curve, we expect continued pickup in portfolio yields, particularly in L&R, given the longer duration of its portfolio.

    普險投資組合收益率較上季成長9個基點,較去年成長88個基點,淨投資收益成長30%。 L&R投資收益成長23%,投資組合收益率分別提高9個基點和63個基點。根據目前的國債殖利率曲線,鑑於其投資組合的久期較長,我們預期投資組合殖利率將持續上升,尤其是 L&R 的殖利率。

  • Alternative investment income totaled $26 million for an annualized return of about 1%, better than the losses last year, but below our long-term experience and outlook and down sequentially. Private equity returns are the principal driver of sequential decline in alternative returns this year as we have reduced our exposure to hedge funds over the last year. Private equity is reported on a 1-quarter lag based on when we receive the fund's financial reports. So this quarter's financial results reflect second quarter margins.

    另類投資收入總計 2,600 萬美元,年化回報率約為 1%,優於去年的損失,但低於我們的長期經驗和前景,並且比上一季下降。私募股權回報是今年另類回報連續下降的主要驅動因素,因為我們去年減少了對沖基金的投資。根據我們收到基金財務報告的時間,私募股權報告存在 1 個季度的延遲。因此,本季的財務業績反映了第二季的利潤率。

  • Our investment portfolios have strong credit performance and remain well diversified and highly rated. We continue to monitor commercial real estate closely. Debt service coverage ratios are strong, including in the office sector. The primary impact has been on loan-to-value ratios and real estate equity valuations rather than delinquencies or defaults. We continue to work on near-term maturities, and almost all 2023 scheduled maturities have been addressed.

    我們的投資組合具有良好的信用表現,並保持良好的多元化和高評級。我們繼續密切監控商業房地產。償債覆蓋率很高,包括辦公室。主要影響是貸款價值比和房地產股權估值,而不是拖欠或違約。我們繼續處理近期到期問題,幾乎所有 2023 年預定到期問題都已解決。

  • Life and Retirement once again delivered strong results in the third quarter. Adjusted pretax income was $971 million, up 24% year-over-year, driven by continued investment spread expansion and strong sales, particularly in Fixed Index Annuities. Underwriting margins overall remain attractive. And on a sequential quarter basis, fee income and investment spreads improved.

    人壽與退休業務第三季再次取得強勁業績。調整後的稅前收入為 9.71 億美元,年增 24%,這得益於持續的投資利差擴張和強勁的銷售(尤其是固定指數年金)。承保利潤率總體上仍然具有吸引力。與連續季度相比,費用收入和投資利差有所改善。

  • During the quarter, the annual actuarial assumptions update was completed, resulting in a modest $22 million increase in APTI, mostly in the Life Insurance segment, compared to a $29 million increase last year. Individual Retirement APTI increased $195 million or 52% over the prior year quarter from base spread expansion and general account product growth.

    本季度,年度精算假設更新完成,導致 APTI 適度增加 2,200 萬美元,主要是在人壽保險領域,而去年則增加了 2,900 萬美元。由於基本利差擴大和一般帳戶產品成長,個人退休 APTI 比去年同期增加了 1.95 億美元,即 52%。

  • The fixed annuity surrender rate increased sequentially from 15.9% to 17.7% this quarter as operations caught up on a backlog of surrender requests from earlier in the year. On a monthly basis, surrenders peaked early in the quarter and declined sequentially each month with continued improvement in October.

    由於業務趕上了今年稍早積壓的退保請求,固定年金退保率本季從 15.9% 連續上升至 17.7%。從月度來看,退保率在本季初達到峰值,隨後逐月下降,並在 10 月持續改善。

  • Group Retirement APTI was flat year-over-year as higher fee income and alternative investment income were offset by lower other yield enhancement income and higher general operating expenses or GOE. Net outflows included one large $1 billion plan, which was mostly in mutual funds and, therefore, was not material to earnings.

    集團退休 APTI 年比持平,因為較高的費用收入和另類投資收入被較低的其他收益增強收入和較高的一般營運費用或 GOE 所抵消。淨流出包括一項 10 億美元的大型計劃,該計劃主要投資於共同基金,因此對收益並不重要。

  • Life Insurance APT was also flat year-over-year, primarily due to lower policy fees and a lower favorable impact from the annual assumptions update, partially offset by higher net investment income.

    人壽保險 APT 也與去年同期持平,主要是由於保單費用較低以及年度假設更新帶來的有利影響較低,但部分被較高的淨投資收入所抵消。

  • Institutional Markets APTI decreased $8 million or 10% due to less favorable mortality experience. Sales increased 19%, supported by record production of $1.9 billion, partially offset by lower PRT sales, which are highly variable quarter-to-quarter.

    由於死亡率情況不佳,機構市場 APTI 下降了 800 萬美元,即 10%。在創紀錄的 19 億美元產量的支撐下,銷售額增長了 19%,但部分被 PRT 銷售額下降所抵消,而 PRT 銷售額則按季度變化很大。

  • Turning to Other Operations. Third quarter adjusted pretax loss improved by $149 million, driven by lower corporate and other GOE and higher short-term investment income. In addition, third quarter 2022 had investment losses on a legacy portfolio that was sold in 4Q '22.

    轉向其他操作。第三季調整後稅前虧損改善了 1.49 億美元,原因是企業和其他 GOE 減少以及短期投資收入增加。此外,2022 年第三季在 2022 年第四季出售的遺留投資組合出現投資損失。

  • Corporate GOE was $243 million and included $68 million for Corebridge. Excluding Corebridge, AIG corporate GOE decreased $56 million from the prior year. We remain on track to reduce 2023 corporate GOE by at least $100 million, including a higher allocation to General Insurance that has not had a material impact on the expense ratio due to expense discipline across the company.

    公司 GOE 為 2.43 億美元,其中包括 Corebridge 的 6,800 萬美元。不包括 Corebridge,AIG 公司 GOE 比前一年減少 5,600 萬美元。我們仍有望將 2023 年企業 GOE 減少至少 1 億美元,包括增加對普通保險的分配,但由於整個公司的費用紀律,這並未對費用率產生重大影響。

  • Moving to the balance sheet. Third quarter 2023 estimated risk-based capital ratios remain above our target ranges. The General Insurance U.S. pool RBC is in the high 400s, while Life and Retirement is above its 400% target. At September 30, consolidated debt and preferred stock to total capital, excluding AOCI, was 25.9%, including $9.4 billion of Corebridge debt.

    轉向資產負債表。 2023 年第三季估計的基於風險的資本比率仍高於我們的目標範圍。美國普通保險池 RBC 處於 400 左右的高位,而人壽和退休保險則高於 400% 的目標。截至 9 月 30 日,合併債務和優先股佔總資本(不包括 AOCI)的比例為 25.9%,其中包括 94 億美元的 Corebridge 債務。

  • Our approach to capital management is unchanged. We will continue to balance share repurchases and debt reduction while also focusing on increasing common stock dividends. As Peter indicated, from the Validus and Laya sales, we expect about $3.7 billion of additional parent liquidity in the fourth quarter. We have significant financial flexibility, which we intend to use for both additional share repurchases and debt reduction.

    我們的資本管理方法沒有改變。我們將繼續平衡股票回購和債務削減,同時專注於增加普通股股利。正如 Peter 指出的那樣,從 Validus 和 Laya 的銷售來看,我們預計第四季度母公司流動性將增加約 37 億美元。我們擁有巨大的財務靈活性,我們打算將其用於額外的股票回購和債務削減。

  • Based on current average daily trading volumes, we expect to be able to repurchase about $1.5 billion of common stock a quarter or $500 million a month, which we will begin when the market window opens after earnings. We expect to continue at this rate into 2024, depending on excess parent liquidity levels, including future Corebridge sales proceeds and General Insurance dividends. In the fourth quarter, we also plan to accelerate debt repayment to rightsize our debt stock for our target deconsolidated leverage ratio.

    根據目前的日均交易量,我們預計每季能夠回購約 15 億美元的普通股,或每月回購 5 億美元,我們將在財報發布後市場窗口打開時開始回購。我們預計這一速度將持續到 2024 年,具體取決於母公司過剩的流動性水平,包括未來 Corebridge 的銷售收益和普通保險股息。在第四季度,我們還計劃加速債務償還,以調整我們的債務存量,以達到我們的目標解表槓桿率。

  • Turning to our ROCE target. We remain laser-focused and are making progress on achieving a 10%-plus ROCE post deconsolidation. Year-to-date, annualized adjusted ROCE for AIG was 8.8% and 12.0% in General Insurance and 11.4% in Life and Retirement.

    轉向我們的 ROCE 目標。我們仍然高度專注,並在實現分拆後 ROCE 提高 10% 以上方面取得進展。年初至今,AIG 的一般保險業務年化調整後 ROCE 分別為 8.8% 和 12.0%,人壽和退休保險業務為 11.4%。

  • Last quarter, I provided a pro forma AIG shareholders' equity ex AOCI, excluding Corebridge, of about $40 billion, including deferred tax assets from the financial crisis era net operating losses. That's the capital supporting our General Insurance business and parent operations today, excluding our stake in Corebridge.

    上個季度,我提供了預估的 AIG 股東權益(不包括 Corebridge)約 400 億美元(不包括 AOCI),其中包括來自金融危機時代淨營運虧損的遞延稅資產。這是支持我們今天的普通保險業務和母公司營運的資本,不包括我們在 Corebridge 的股份。

  • With the sale of Validus Re and the redeployment of proceeds into share repurchases and debt reduction, the current pro forma estimate of AIG equity, excluding Corebridge, is about $37 billion, including $4 billion of deferred tax assets, or $33 billion of adjusted shareholders' equity, which is the number we use for calculating adjusted ROCE.

    隨著Validus Re 的出售以及將所得款項重新用於股票回購和債務削減,目前AIG 股權(不包括Corebridge)的預計約為370 億美元,其中包括40 億美元的遞延稅資產,或330 億美元的調整後股東權益。權益,這是我們用來計算調整後的 ROCE 的數字。

  • Considering this equity level and our plans to simplify AIG's business and operational structure and to drive more predictable and sustainable profitability, we are confident that we will achieve our 10%-plus adjusted ROCE goal. We look forward to continuing to update you on our progress.

    考慮到這一股權水平以及我們簡化 AIG 業務和營運結構並推動更可預測和可持續盈利能力的計劃,我們有信心實現 10% 以上的調整後 ROCE 目標。我們期待繼續向您通報我們的進展。

  • With that, I will turn the call back over to Peter.

    這樣,我會將電話轉回給彼得。

  • Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

    Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

  • Thanks, Sabra. And Michelle, we're ready for questions.

    謝謝,薩布拉。米歇爾,我們準備好回答問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Meyer Shields with KBW.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

  • Meyer Shields - MD

    Meyer Shields - MD

  • One question to start on reserves. I guess, what's the process for ensuring that the adverse development in International Commercial doesn't actually reflect social inflation problem and that it's individual cases?

    首先要討論儲備金問題。我想,如何確保國際商事的不利發展其實不反映社會通貨膨脹問題,而且只是個案?

  • Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

    Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

  • Meyer, thanks for the question. Sabra, do you want to cover? That's just a quick overview of -- Meyer mentioned the International and some of the inflation impact from reserves.

    邁耶,謝謝你的提問。薩布拉,你想掩護嗎?這只是邁耶提到的國際貨幣基金組織和儲備金對通膨的一些影響的快速概述。

  • Sabra Rose Purtill - Executive VP & CFO

    Sabra Rose Purtill - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, certainly. And let me first start by explaining what the DVR process is. So DVR is a once-a-year deep-dive into our reserves. But each quarter, we do an actual versus expected analysis. So we do make adjustments to reserves on lines of business during the ordinary part of the year, but the deep-dive is where we really drill down into the lines in great detail.

    是的,當然了。首先讓我解釋一下 DVR 流程是什麼。因此,DVR 是對我們儲備的每年一次的深入挖掘。但每個季度,我們都會進行實際與預期的分析。因此,我們確實會在一年中的正常時間對業務線的準備金進行調整,但深入研究是我們真正深入研究業務線的細節。

  • This quarter, as I noted, we had International casualty. The development that you see is related to very specific books or -- and I'm sorry, I'm getting a little feedback on the line here. So I don't know, Meyer, maybe you need to mute. Anyway, the International Commercial Lines is very much related to specific cases and judgments around settlements.

    正如我所指出的,本季我們有國際傷亡。您看到的開發與非常具體的書籍相關,或者 - 很抱歉,我在這裡收到了一些回饋。所以我不知道,邁耶,也許你需要靜音。無論如何,國際商事規則與和解的具體案件和判決有很大關係。

  • And as I said and would also note in Peter's comment, these are generally from older accident years where we are exposed to much larger limits. So therefore, when you have a particular claim that goes against you, they do -- they are lumpy and they tend to be large. So what I would just say again is that we look at our book consistently during the course of the year, do a deep-dive once a year and then make some assessments based on specific facts and circumstances.

    正如我所說以及在彼得的評論中也會指出的那樣,這些通常來自較早的事故年份,在那裡我們面臨更大的限制。因此,當你有一個不利於你的特定主張時,它們就會出現——它們是塊狀的,而且往往很大。所以我要再說一次的是,我們在這一年中不斷地閱讀我們的書,每年進行一次深入研究,然後根據具體事實和情況做出一些評估。

  • Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

    Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

  • Thanks, Sabra. Meyer, do you have another question?

    謝謝,薩布拉。邁耶,你還有其他問題嗎?

  • Meyer Shields - MD

    Meyer Shields - MD

  • Yes, just a quick one. I know there's a lot of moving parts in North America Personal. I was hoping you could give us some sense of maybe true underlying underwriting results and the path to profitability in that segment.

    是的,只是快一點。我知道北美個人有很多變動的部分。我希望你能讓我們了解一些可能真實的潛在承保結果以及該領域的獲利路徑。

  • Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

    Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

  • Great. Thank you. As we've talked about before, it's a business in transition. We're not pleased with the overall printed results. But we had outlined in the past that it's complicated. 2023 would be a transition year, particularly with PCS, which we see a lot of net premium written coming in each quarter. The earned will follow, and so we should have some significant benefit on the ratios as we fully earn in the premium over the coming quarters.

    偉大的。謝謝。正如我們之前討論過的,這是一項轉型中的業務。我們對整體列印結果並不滿意。但我們過去曾概述過它很複雜。 2023 年將是一個過渡年,特別是對於 PCS 而言,我們看到每個季度都會產生大量淨保費。收入將隨之而來,因此當我們在未來幾個季度完全賺取溢價時,我們應該在比率上獲得一些顯著的好處。

  • When we look at fourth quarter 2023 and into 2024, we will see the mix of business change. And so therefore, the overall GOE and acquisition expenses should come down. We would see the accident year loss ratio, ex CAT, slightly go up just because of the mix of what PCS is underwriting.

    當我們展望 2023 年第四季和 2024 年時,我們將看到業務組合的變化。因此,整體 GOE 和收購費用應該會下降。我們會看到事故年損失率(ex CAT)略有上升,只是因為 PCS 承保的內容混合。

  • We did have some onetime items that I won't go into in the quarter that were headwinds in the Travel and Warranty business. But those businesses are going to have to contribute more as we get into 2024, and we're looking at the entire business model in order to improve their financial results.

    我們確實有一些我不會在本季討論的一次性項目,這些項目對旅行和保固業務來說是不利的。但進入 2024 年,這些企業將不得不做出更多貢獻,我們正在審視整個商業模式,以改善他們的財務表現。

  • So we recognize the overall segment needs to improve. We believe we have the sort of business strategic alternatives in place, and we're going to be executing them. And again, it's just a choppy year as we make that transition.

    因此,我們認識到整個細分市場需要改進。我們相信我們已經制定了適當的業務策略替代方案,並且我們將執行它們。再說一遍,在我們轉型的過程中,這只是波濤洶湧的一年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Gary Ransom with Dowling & Partners.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Dowling & Partners 的 Gary Ransom。

  • Gary Kent Ransom - Partner

    Gary Kent Ransom - Partner

  • I wanted to ask about Financial Lines. On the one hand, you noted that rates are going down in that segment. And on the other hand, you were talking about social inflation. And I mean, just generally, it seems to be as worrisome as ever. I know your reserves held up this quarter, but it's like we're in a soft market for those financial lines. And I wondered if you could add some more color on how you're managing through that portion of the cycle in that business.

    我想問一下金融線的事。一方面,您注意到該領域的利率正在下降。另一方面,你在談論社會通貨膨脹。我的意思是,總的來說,情況似乎一如既往地令人擔憂。我知道你們本季的準備金保持不變,但就好像我們正處於這些金融產品的疲軟市場。我想知道您是否可以為您如何管理該業務週期的這一部分添加更多色彩。

  • Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

    Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

  • Sure. Yes, thanks, Gary, for the question. And I'll have Dave make some specific comments. When we talk about the headwinds in Financial Lines, and again, Dave will go into it, but it's primarily North America and it's primarily excess. We've done a tremendous job over the past couple of years to reposition the business and not only with the underwriting, but also with cumulative rate. And so we still think there's margins, still think our scale and balance across the world is a competitive advantage. And when we talk about some of the challenges in Financial Lines, it's really specific to North America.

    當然。是的,謝謝加里提出的問題。我會讓戴夫發表一些具體的評論。當我們談論金融線的逆風時,戴夫會再次討論它,但主要是北美,而且主要是過剩。過去幾年,我們在重新定位業務方面做了大量工作,不僅在承保方面,而且在累積費率方面。因此,我們仍然認為存在利潤,仍然認為我們在全球的規模和平衡是一種競爭優勢。當我們談論金融線的一些挑戰時,它確實是針對北美的。

  • Dave, do you want to provide some context in a little bit more detail, please?

    戴夫,您想提供一些更詳細的背景資訊嗎?

  • David Hughes McElroy - Executive VP & CEO of General Insurance

    David Hughes McElroy - Executive VP & CEO of General Insurance

  • Yes. Yes, thank you, Peter. And thank you, Gary. The -- this is obviously a business that I've got a lot of scar tissue in over a lot of 40 years of this. And I sometimes think of my career credibility tied into fixing this book, but I am very confident with where we have positioned the book, okay?

    是的。是的,謝謝你,彼得。謝謝你,加里。顯然,在這 40 多年的時間裡,我在這個行業留下了很多疤痕。有時我會想到我的職業信譽與修復這本書有關,但我對我們對這本書的定位非常有信心,好嗎?

  • The -- we've taken a cautious approach to the large account public company D&O business and particularly excess, Gary, that you've referred to. So we're aware of the consequences of chasing volume, okay? We've seen companies go close to the sun, they burn out, where that's our sophistication.

    我們對大客戶上市公司的 D&O 業務,尤其是你提到的過度業務,採取了謹慎的態度。所以我們知道追逐數量的後果,好嗎?我們見過一些公司接近太陽,但最終卻被燒毀,這就是我們的成熟之處。

  • So the -- what we're doing here, private -- public company, D&O, the market, the private, their primary market is, frankly, a stable market, okay? It's holding up well. Cumulative rate increases, even though they went up 120% from the '18 to '21 year, they're trending around 85% today, and they're holding, okay? This is going to be about a story about excess.

    所以,我們在這裡所做的,私人——上市公司、D&O、市場、私人,他們的主要市場,坦白說,是一個穩定的市場,好嗎?它保持得很好。累計利率上漲,儘管從 18 年到 21 年上漲了 120%,但今天的趨勢是 85% 左右,而且還在堅持,好嗎?這將是一個關於過度的故事。

  • And I do want to frame this that in that primary market, there are a couple of key points that are also holding and that's retentions are holding up very nicely, okay? There hasn't been an erosion in the self-insured retentions that clients are keeping. And we look at that as sort of an acting hedge against legal cost inflation.

    我確實想框架這一點,在初級市場中,有幾個關鍵點也保持不變,而且保留率保持得非常好,好嗎?客戶保留的自我保險保留並沒有受到侵蝕。我們將其視為對法律成本通膨的一種有效對沖。

  • And then the other fact that I've always been worried about is the arms race back to limits. And this industry did a great job, and I believe there was respect for this volatility by taking 25 million limits down to 10s and 15s down to 5s. So even today, our portfolio is in the 80% to 90% range of those limits on a primary basis. And therefore, the arms race to increasing limits, which is often led by those who may not understand the volatility, that has not happened, okay? So that's a win for the primary.

    我一直擔心的另一個事實是軍備競賽回到極限。這個行業做得很好,我相信透過將 2500 萬個限額降低到 10 秒,將 15 秒降低到 5 秒,人們尊重了這種波動性。因此,即使在今天,我們的投資組合主要仍處於這些限制的 80% 至 90% 範圍內。因此,軍備競賽往往是由那些可能不了解波動性的人所領導的,但這種情況並沒有發生,好嗎?所以這是初選的勝利。

  • I'm going to be -- I'll call out the excess because the battles and the competition in this market are classic, okay? These are tranches above $50 million. It's a commodity. We're seeing more competition there. And we're -- what we're going to do is we're going to do what we've been doing, reducing our limits, reducing our policy count. Our renewal retention right now is actually running 11 points lower than what would be normal in a standard market. And we're going to continue that way, not only on a policy count basis, but an aggregate -- in an aggregate basis.

    我會——我會指出過度行為,因為這個市場上的戰鬥和競爭是經典的,好嗎?這些金額超過 5000 萬美元。這是一種商品。我們看到那裡的競爭更加激烈。我們要做的就是我們一直在做的事情,減少我們的限制,減少我們的保單數量。我們現在的續訂保留率實際上比標準市場的正常水平低 11 個百分點。我們將繼續這樣做,不僅是在政策計數的基礎上,而且是在總體的基礎上。

  • The 2 things I just called out, everybody knows that I've lived in this business for a bit, I'd call out the claim environment in the market, okay? The market may be mistiming the pricing of excess layers, okay? The plaintiffs' bar has circled back to large account. Securities class actions, they're actually up this year and looking more like the '16 to '19 cohort years, which are problematic for the industry versus the 2022 years. So it's one to be concerned about because that verticality of loss will actually affect the excess towers that are not going to be making money at [$8,000 a mill].

    我剛才提到的兩件事,每個人都知道我在這個行業生活了一段時間,我會提到市場上的索賠環境,好嗎?市場可能對多餘層的定價有誤,好嗎?原告的律師團又回到了大帳。證券集體訴訟,今年實際上有所增加,看起來更像是 16 至 19 年,與 2022 年相比,這對該行業來說是個問題。因此,這是一個值得關注的問題,因為垂直損失實際上會影響多餘的塔,而這些塔不會以[每座工廠 8,000 美元]的價格獲利。

  • So this environment is not conducive to be putting out limits excess at those layers. And maybe the more important thing is about our AIG global book, okay? It is a formidable asset. And we had the heightened scrutiny on the North American book. We're confident around what that looks like. But the International book is a franchise that you could not duplicate in generations.

    因此,這種環境不利於在這些層面上施加過多的限制。也許更重要的是我們的 AIG 全球書籍,好嗎?這是一筆巨大的資產。我們對北美的書進行了嚴格的審查。我們對它的樣子充滿信心。但《國際》這本書是你幾代人無法複製的特許經營權。

  • It's performed better than the U.S. It's got -- it's actually larger than the U.S. book. It actually represents 60% of our total volume in the world. It has more geographic spread, particularly in Europe and Asia Pac. And it actually catches more private company business, SME business and middle-market cyber business than you might think in North America. So -- and other than some of the London subscription pricing, the pricing pressure there has been de minimis. And in fact, our rates are holding up better than 2023.

    它的表現比美國的更好——它實際上比美國的書還要大。它實際上佔全球總量的 60%。它的地理分佈更廣,特別是在歐洲和亞太地區。實際上,它吸引的私人公司業務、中小企業業務和中間市場網絡業務比您在北美想像的還要多。因此,除了倫敦的一些訂閱定價之外,那裡的定價壓力微乎其微。事實上,我們的利率比 2023 年保持得更好。

  • So I always feel like when I got here, I didn't understand the impact and the power, but the AIG global franchise is an incredible asset, and it also is one that we have coordinated better to make sure that any sort of U.S. exposures are controlled collectively by both of us. So in some special asset, it's been built over 2 generations. We like what it is. We like the portfolio today. And it's -- there's been 5 years of work to frame this book to where we all trust it. And we trust the recent years for their performance, okay?

    所以我總覺得,當我來到這裡時,我不了解其影響和力量,但AIG 全球特許經營權是一項令人難以置信的資產,而且我們也更好地協調它,以確保任何形式的美國風險敞口由我們雙方共同控制。因此,在某些特殊資產中,它已經經過兩個世代的建造。我們喜歡它的本質。我們喜歡今天的投資組合。我們花了 5 年的時間才將這本書設計成我們都信任的樣子。我們相信他們近年來的表現,好嗎?

  • Kicking back to you, Peter. I know I went long.

    回到你身邊,彼得。我知道我走了很長一段路。

  • Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

    Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

  • Thank you, David. Very thorough. Appreciate it. Gary...

    謝謝你,大衛。非常徹底。欣賞它。加里...

  • Gary Kent Ransom - Partner

    Gary Kent Ransom - Partner

  • Yes, that's a very thorough answer. I'm good. I mean I'm good with that.

    是的,這是一個非常徹底的答案。我很好。我的意思是我對此很擅長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

  • Taylor Alexander Scott - Equity Analyst

    Taylor Alexander Scott - Equity Analyst

  • First one I had for you is on sort of capital management related to Corebridge separation. I appreciate there's volume constraints, and it's good to have some guidance around how much capacity you can do in terms of buybacks a quarter. I did want to probe you a bit on to what degree, if at all, that, that considers further kind sell-down at Corebridge and sort of further special dividends coming out of Corebridge and so forth.

    我為您介紹的第一個問題是與 Corebridge 分離相關的資本管理。我理解數量限制,並且就每季回購的容量提供一些指導是很好的。我確實想向您探討一下,如果有的話,會在多大程度上考慮 Corebridge 的進一步拋售以及 Corebridge 的進一步特別股息等等。

  • I mean I think the math would tell us that you could potentially do more than $1.5 billion a quarter, particularly for like next year over 4 quarters. And I'm just a little sensitive to it because it affects sort of accretion dilution and just the lag and what to expect. So I want to make sure we have appropriate expectations around the timing of that share count reduction and so forth. So any help is very appreciated.

    我的意思是,我認為數學會告訴我們,每個季度的收入可能會超過 15 億美元,尤其是明年的 4 個季度。我只是對它有點敏感,因為它會影響某種吸積稀釋以及延遲和預期。因此,我想確保我們對股份數量減少的時間等有適當的期望。因此,非常感謝任何幫助。

  • Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

    Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

  • Yes, thanks very much for the question. I mean we tried to provide between Sabra's script and in my prepared remarks a lot of detail on capital management and also the additional liquidity where we're going to have from the special dividend from the Validus Re disposition and overall how we intend to use those proceeds. And it remains the same is we want to make sure that we provide ample capital in our subsidiaries to continue to drive growth. We still think there's great opportunities for us in the businesses that we're in to drive top line growth and continue to drive profit growth and more margin, and that is our primary focus.

    是的,非常感謝您的提問。我的意思是,我們試圖在Sabra 的腳本和我準備好的發言中提供有關資本管理的大量細節,以及我們將從Validus Re 處置的特別股息中獲得的額外流動性,以及我們打算如何使用這些流動性。收益。我們仍然希望確保為子公司提供充足的資本以繼續推動成長。我們仍然認為我們所從事的業務有很大的機會來推動營收成長並繼續推動利潤成長和更高的利潤率,這是我們的主要關注點。

  • We've also given guidance in terms of the share count. And clearly, with the $7.5 billion of share authorization and now with the liquidity that we've outlined, we have a path towards that lower end of the $600 million. And so when we think about the next several quarters, certainly that's going to be the priority.

    我們也就股份數量給出了指導。顯然,有了 75 億美元的股票授權,加上現在我們概述的流動性,我們就有了一條通往 6 億美元的較低目標的道路。因此,當我們考慮接下來的幾個季度時,這當然將是首要任務。

  • Sabra and I alluded to the fact that we still want to clean up a little bit of debt and make sure that we're at the lower end of the ratios, but also reflecting that buying back shares is going to have an impact on your leverage and making certain that we are being thoughtful, prudent in getting ahead of that.

    薩布拉和我提到了這樣一個事實,即我們仍然希望清理一些債務並確保我們處於比率的下限,但也反映出回購股票將對您的槓桿率產生影響並確保我們在採取行動時深思熟慮、謹慎行事。

  • In terms of the Corebridge sell-down, I mean we've been very methodical. Certainly, we would like to do something in the fourth quarter. We continue to look at all the different alternatives in terms of size and how we can do it. And it will be a priority for us to focus on when we conclude this call and start to focus into next week.

    就 Corebridge 的拋售而言,我的意思是我們一直都非常有條理。當然,我們希望在第四季做一些事情。我們繼續在規模和如何實現方面考慮所有不同的替代方案。當我們結束本次電話會議並開始關注下週時,這將是我們關注的首要任務。

  • I mean Corebridge has done a terrific job of setting itself up as a public company. And they're ready for deconsolidation in terms of their operations, but we want to make certain that we are very thoughtful in the current environment. And again, we'll use those proceeds to continue to accelerate what we've outlined on the capital management.

    我的意思是,Corebridge 在將自己打造成一家上市公司方面做得非常出色。他們已經準備好在營運方面進行拆分,但我們希望確保我們在當前環境下考慮得非常周到。再次,我們將利用這些收益繼續加速我們所概述的資本管理。

  • I would expect, as we do a secondary and we get on future calls, we'll update and refresh some of the capital structure and also our guidance to see if we need to revise it. But I think that's probably all I can give you at this point.

    我預計,當我們進行二次調查並接到未來的電話時,我們將更新和刷新一些資本結構以及我們的指導,看看是否需要修改它。但我想這可能就是我現在能給你的全部了。

  • Taylor Alexander Scott - Equity Analyst

    Taylor Alexander Scott - Equity Analyst

  • Yes, that's helpful. Second question I had is on the, I guess, the operating company level on the RemainCo General Insurance side of things. Where do you see those metrics over time? I mean one of the things that I've looked at is just decomposing the ROE, and the underwriting leverage itself seems lower at AIG, which made all the sense in the world as you guys had more volatility.

    是的,這很有幫助。我想,我的第二個問題是關於 RemainCo 一般保險方面的營運公司層面。隨著時間的推移,您在哪裡看到這些指標?我的意思是,我所研究的一件事就是分解股本回報率,而 AIG 的承保槓桿本身似乎較低,這在世界上是有意義的,因為你們的波動性更大。

  • But as you sort of expressed in your opening comments and as you guys have sort of proven out, the volatility is significantly reduced. So where can that go to over time? What are the right metrics for us to look at? Is it RBC premium to surplus? Any help on thinking through how much more business you could write on the equity you have?

    但正如你們在開場白中所表達的那樣,以及你們已經證明的那樣,波動性顯著降低了。那麼隨著時間的推移,它會去哪裡呢?我們應該關注哪些正確的指標? RBC 是否溢價於盈餘?對於思考您可以利用您所擁有的股權進行多少業務,有什麼幫助嗎?

  • Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

    Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

  • Yes. Well, we could write significantly more business based on the capital we have in the subsidiaries today. We have a lot of moving pieces. I mean, certainly, selling Validus Re gives us a lot more flexibility in terms of how we position the portfolio for next year.

    是的。好吧,根據我們今天在子公司中擁有的資本,我們可以創造更多的業務。我們有很多活動。我的意思是,當然,出售 Validus Re 可以讓我們在如何定位明年的投資組合方面擁有更大的靈活性。

  • And so I'll give you a couple of examples of that is that we underwrite property business where we pick up CAT across the world, whether it's Japan, our International business through Lexington, through Talbot, through our retail in North America. But we always had to be very cautious in terms of the overall volatility in terms of how we're correlated with Validus Re, including our reinsurance purchasing where we had certain retentions that might be lower than what our risk tolerance would assume within North America and International. We bought ILWs that benefited the group.

    因此,我將給您舉幾個例子,我們承保房地產業務,我們在世界各地接收 CAT,無論是日本,還是透過列剋星敦、塔爾博特和北美的零售,我們的國際業務。但就我們與Validus Re 的相關性而言,我們始終必須對整體波動性保持非常謹慎的態度,包括我們的再保險購買,其中我們有一定的保留,這些保留可能低於我們在北美和地區的風險承受能力。國際的。我們購買了ILW,這使該集團受益。

  • And so like as we think about how we reposition the portfolio, I believe we have a significant amount of aggregate. We have a significant amount of capital. We have businesses that are positioned to propel growth and want to focus on that.

    因此,就像我們考慮如何重新定位投資組合一樣,我相信我們擁有大量的總量。我們擁有大量資本。我們的企業定位於推動成長,並希望專注於此。

  • Now maybe the first part of your question is, what type of leverage or how can you improve it? We recognize we have an expense issue. I mean when we look at the overall combination of our corporate expenses plus the expenses that sit in the business, yes, there's a little bit of a mix issue that when you look at some of the Personal Insurance, which are great businesses, and International may have a little bit more acquisition and GOE, but by and large, we need to get expenses out.

    現在,您的問題的第一部分可能是,什麼類型的槓桿或如何改進它?我們認識到我們存在費用問題。我的意思是,當我們查看公司費用加上業務費用的整體組合時,是的,當您查看一些個人保險(這是偉大的業務)和國際保險時,存在一點混合問題可能會有更多的收購和GOE,但總的來說,我們需要支出。

  • And that's the focus. That will be the leverage in terms of contributing to ROE and also getting a future-state business that is leaner and does not have duplication across the world. I mean so that's the work we've been doing this year. We will be positioned pre-deconsolidation to start implementing that operating model.

    這就是重點。這將成為貢獻 ROE 並獲得更精簡且在全球範圍內不會重複的未來業務的槓桿。我的意思是,這就是我們今年一直在做的工作。我們將在分拆前做好準備,開始實施此營運模式。

  • But I think the leverage is we have enough capital to grow, and we'll continue to grow the top line where we like the risk-adjusted returns, less volatility because we don't have a reinsurance business anymore. So we can do things a little bit differently on the primary side. And we know we have expenses that need to get out, and we're going to get them out, and that's going to drive us north of the 10% ROCE.

    但我認為槓桿是我們有足夠的資本來成長,我們將繼續增加收入,我們喜歡風險調整後的回報,波動性較小,因為我們不再有再保險業務。所以我們可以在初級側做一些不同的事情。我們知道我們有需要支出的費用,我們將把它們拿出來,這將使我們超越 10% 的 ROCE。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Michael Zaremski with BMO.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Michael Zaremski。

  • Michael David Zaremski - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Michael David Zaremski - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • My question is kind of on some points that were touched on already on the portfolio transformation strategy, which has obviously been successful over the past 5 years. So Peter, you used the T word, trillion, you said $1.4 trillion limit reduction. So just curious, I think David gave us a flavor of this answer, but does that -- is there a way to frame what percentage limit reduction your average -- this average policy is? It sounded like David said it's over 50% in some of those Financial Lines?

    我的問題是關於投資組合轉型策略中已經涉及的一些要點,該策略在過去 5 年中顯然取得了成功。彼得,你用了「萬億」這個詞,你說限制減少了 1.4 兆美元。所以只是好奇,我認為大衛給了我們這個答案的味道,但是有沒有辦法確定你的平均政策減少的百分比限制是多少?聽起來 David 說其中一些金融業務的比例超過 50%?

  • And just related, like how is that -- was AIG an outlier previously and you moved towards the market? Or just how has this changed your competitive position in the marketplace?

    與之相關的是,AIG 之前是否是一個異常者,而您轉向了市場?或者這如何改變了您在市場上的競爭地位?

  • Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

    Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

  • Yes. I think you recognize how we were able to reduce volatility. When you have -- I have to even pause when I have to write out trillion because it's a big number. And $1.4 trillion of limit, I don't think that's been done in our business before, and then reposition the portfolio to drive significant profitability improvement.

    是的。我想您已經認識到我們如何能夠減少波動性。當你有——當我必須寫出萬億時,我甚至必須暫停,因為這是一個很大的數字。 1.4兆美元的限額,我認為我們的業務以前沒有這樣做過,然後重新定位投資組合以推動盈利能力的顯著提高。

  • It absolutely was an outlier. Its gross limit deployment and net limit deployment was significant relative to any of its competitors. And in order to have the type of predictable results we've been able to produce over the past couple of years, when you see the relative improvement as well as absolute improvement, we are really proud of that. You had to take out the volatility, which was the outsized limits, not only from a gross perspective, and we recognize that.

    這絕對是一個異常值。與任何競爭對手相比,其總限額部署和淨限額部署都顯著。為了獲得過去幾年我們能夠產生的可預測結果,當你看到相對改進和絕對改進時,我們真的為此感到自豪。你必須消除波動性,這是巨大的限制,不僅僅是從整體角度來看,我們認識到這一點。

  • While we talk about it is that, yes, we're a buyer of reinsurance, it's strategic, it matters, but it's not what's driving the results. The driver of the results is the gross underwriting and the overall reduction. Everywhere you look, property, casualty, financial lines, everything is 50% plus of reduction of gross limits. And then you add on reinsurance to temper volatility, that's how we've been able to position the portfolio to have not only significantly improved results, less volatility, it's also very sustainable. And we believe that there's opportunities for further improvement.

    雖然我們談論的是,是的,我們是再保險的買家,它具有戰略意義,很重要,但這並不是推動結果的因素。績效的驅動因素是承保總額和整體減少。放眼望去,無論是財產險、傷亡險、財務險,一切都是總限額減少的 50% 以上。然後添加再保險來緩和波動性,這就是我們能夠定位投資組合的方式,不僅可以顯著改善業績,減少波動性,而且非常可持續。我們相信還有進一步改進的機會。

  • Michael David Zaremski - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Michael David Zaremski - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And my last, if I may, is on -- there's a lot of leadership changes over the past, right, years and quarters. I think Sabra used the term simplify structure. I guess any color you can offer on are we -- is the structure simplified, we're on baseball inning 4 or 9? Or any comments would be helpful.

    好的。偉大的。如果可以的話,我的最後一個主題是——在過去的幾年和幾個季度裡,領導層發生了很多變化。我認為薩布拉使用了術語“簡化結構”。我想你能提供的任何顏色都是——結構是否簡化,我們在棒球第 4 局或第 9 局?或任何評論都會有幫助。

  • Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

    Peter Zaffino;Chairman and CEO

  • Sure. Look, we've had a lot of change over the last 5 years. When I look at our overall attrition, it's at all-time low. We've had a couple of senior executives that we brought in to position the organization for the future and believe that the underwriting structure that we put forward is going to be with us for a couple of years. It's going to drive the performance that we've become accustomed to. And we'll continue to bring in skill sets in the organization that supplement what we already have in order to position us for the future.

    當然。看,過去 5 年我們發生了很多變化。當我看到我們的整體流失率時,它處於歷史最低水平。我們聘請了幾位高階主管來為組織的未來定位,並相信我們提出的承保結構將持續數年。它將推動我們已經習慣的性能。我們將繼續在組織中引入技能,以補充我們已有的技能,以便為我們的未來做好準備。

  • So I'm like really very pleased. As I said, we have very low attrition, continue to upgrade talent across the organization. And people want to come work here, which is a really positive attribute of the organization and how we position it for the future.

    所以我真的非常高興。正如我所說,我們的人員流失率非常低,並持續提升整個組織的人才水準。人們想來這裡工作,這是組織的一個非常積極的屬性,也是我們對未來的定位。

  • So thank you. I do have one closing remark. First of all, I'm very proud, and I'd like to thank all of our colleagues for their efforts and all that they've done to progress our strategic plans and deliver consistently strong financial results. Very proud of them.

    所以謝謝。我有一個結束語。首先,我感到非常自豪,我要感謝我們所有的同事為推進我們的策略計劃並實現持續強勁的財務業績所做的努力和所做的一切。為他們感到非常自豪。

  • I would like to say a few words about our former Chief Financial Officer, Shane Fitzsimons, who passed away on Friday, October 27. Shane had a brilliant career. He was highly thought of in the global business community and quickly earned the trust and respect of the insurance industry, which is not easy to do.

    我想談談我們的前財務長 Shane Fitzsimons,他於 10 月 27 日星期五去世。Shane 有著輝煌的職業生涯。他在全球商界備受推崇,並迅速贏得了保險業的信任和尊重,這並不容易做到。

  • He was a cherished colleague here at AIG. Shane brought energy, integrity and a very positive attitude that was both contagious and inspiring. He's a big reason why AIG is where it is today. Shane was a great friend to many of us, and we're so grateful for all that he did for AIG, our stakeholders and our colleagues.

    他是 AIG 一位值得尊敬的同事。肖恩帶來了活力、正直和非常積極的態度,既具有感染力又鼓舞人心。他是 AIG 取得今天成就的重要原因。肖恩是我們許多人的好朋友,我們非常感謝他為 AIG、我們的利害關係人和同事所做的一切。

  • Thank you, and have a great day.

    謝謝您,祝您有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for your participation. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

    感謝您的參與。這確實結束了程序,您現在可以斷開連接。大家,祝你有美好的一天。