American International Group Inc (AIG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to AIG's fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results conference call.

大家好，歡迎參加 AIG 2024 年第四季和全年財務業績電話會議。

This conference is being recorded.

本次會議正在錄製中。

Now at this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Quentin McMillan.

現在，我想將會議交給昆汀·麥克米蘭。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thanks very much, Michelle, and good morning.

非常感謝，米歇爾，早安。

Today's remarks may include forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties.

今天的言論可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響。

These statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and are based on management's current expectations.

這些聲明並非對未來業績或事件的保證，而是基於管理層目前的預期。

AIG's filings with the SEC provide details on important factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially.

AIG 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件詳細說明了可能導致實際結果或事件產生重大差異的重要因素。

Except as required by applicable securities laws, AIG is under no obligation to update any forward-looking statements if circumstances or management's estimates or opinions should change.

除適用的證券法另有要求外，如果情況或管理層的估計或意見發生變化，AIG 沒有義務更新任何前瞻性聲明。

Today's remarks may also refer to non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的言論也可能涉及非公認會計準則財務指標。

The reconciliation of such measures to the most comparable GAAP figures is included in our earnings release, financial supplement, and earnings presentation, all of which are available on our website at AIG.com.

這些指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 數據的對帳包含在我們的收益報告、財務補充和收益報告中，所有這些都可以在我們的網站 AIG.com 上找到。

Following the deconsolidation of Corebridge Financial on June 9, 2024, the historical results of Corebridge for all periods presented are reflected in AIG's consolidated financial statements and discontinued operations in accordance with US GAAP.

繼 2024 年 6 月 9 日 Corebridge Financial 脫離合併後，Corebridge 所有期間的歷史業績均按照美國 GAAP 反映在 AIG 的合併財務報表和已終止經營業務中。

Additionally, in the fourth quarter, AIG realigned its organizational structure and the composition of its reportable segments to reflect changes in how AIG manages its operations, which our Chief Financial Officer, Keith Walsh, will discuss in detail during his remarks.

此外，在第四季度，AIG 重新調整了其組織結構和報告分部的組成，以反映 AIG 管理其營運方式的變化，我們的財務長 Keith Walsh 將在他的演講中詳細討論這一點。

Finally, today's remarks related to AIG's adjusted after-tax income for diluted share, as well as general insurance results, including key metrics such as underwriting income, margin, and net investment income, are presented on a comparable basis, which reflects year-over-year comparison adjusted for the sale of crop-risk services and the sale of Validus Re as applicable.

最後，今天的評論涉及 AIG 調整後的攤薄後稅後收益以及一般保險業績，包括承保收入、利潤率和淨投資收益等關鍵指標，這些均以可比基礎呈現，反映了根據作物風險服務銷售額和 Validus Re 銷售額調整後的同比情況。

Net premiums written and net premiums earned are also presented on a comparable basis, which reflects year-over-year comparison on a constant dollar basis and adjusted for the sales of Crop Risk services, Validus Re, and the global personal travel and assistance business as applicable.

淨承保保費和淨已賺保費也按可比較基礎列示，反映以固定美元計算的同比比較，並根據作物風險服務、Validus Re 和全球個人旅行及援助業務的銷售額進行適用調整。

We believe this presentation provides the most useful view of our results and the go-forward business in light of the substantial changes to the portfolio since 2023.

我們相信，鑑於自 2023 年以來投資組合發生的重大變化，此演示提供了對我們的業績和未來業務最有用的見解。

Please refer to pages 37 through 39 of the earnings presentation for reconciliation of such metrics reportable on a comparable basis.

請參閱收益報告第 37 至 39 頁，以了解可比較基礎上可報告的此類指標的調節情況。

With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Peter Zaffino.

說完這些，我現在想把電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Peter Zaffino。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to review our fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們，回顧我們的 2024 年第四季和全年財務表現。

Following my remarks, Keith will provide additional perspectives on our financial results, and then we'll take your questions.

在我的發言之後，Keith 將對我們的財務表現提供更多看法，然後我們將回答您的問題。

Don Bailey and Jon Hancock will join us for the Q&A portion of the call.

唐貝利 (Don Bailey) 和喬恩漢考克 (Jon Hancock) 將參加本次電話會議的問答環節。

Before I begin, on behalf of all of us at AIG, I want to acknowledge the devastating impact of the recent wildfires in California on families, communities, and the businesses affected.

首先，我謹代表 AIG 全體員工，承認加州最近發生的野火對家庭、社區和受影響的企業造成了毀滅性的影響。

Our local teams remain on the ground in California, providing critical expertise and support to our customers and partners.

我們的當地團隊仍駐紮在加州，為我們的客戶和合作夥伴提供關鍵的專業知識和支援。

This tragic event serves as a stark reminder of the escalating risks, elevated catastrophe landscape, and the complicated evolving environment that we operate in.

這起悲劇事件清楚提醒我們，我們面臨的風險正在不斷升級，災難情況正在加劇，我們所處的環境正在複雜演變。

It also underscores AIG's purpose to help our customers and clients navigate these challenges with resilience in rebuilding communities and restoring businesses.

它還強調了 AIG 的宗旨，即幫助我們的客戶和客戶在重建社區和恢復業務的過程中克服這些挑戰。

Let me take a moment to cover what I will walk you through during my remarks this morning.

請容許我花點時間介紹一下我在今天早上的演講中將向大家介紹的內容。

First, I will briefly share highlights from our strong fourth quarter performance.

首先，我將簡要分享我們第四季強勁表現的亮點。

Second, I will discuss our 2024 strategic and operational accomplishments.

第二，我將討論我們2024年的策略和營運成就。

Third, I will provide an overview of the full year financial results for AIG and our general insurance business.

第三，我將概述AIG和我們的一般保險業務的全年財務表現。

Fourth, I will comment on the reinsurance market, including the January 1 renewals, and provide some observations on the impact of the recent California wildfires.

第四，我將對再保險市場進行評論，包括 1 月 1 日的續保，並對最近加州野火的影響提供一些觀察。

And lastly, I will provide an update on the progress we have made on our capital management strategy, our path to achieving a 10% plus core ROE, and how we are positioning the company for 2025.

最後，我將介紹我們的資本管理策略的進展、實現 10% 以上核心 ROE 的途徑，以及公司在 2025 年的定位。

Let's begin with the fourth quarter results.

讓我們從第四季的業績開始。

We recently announced a realignment of our general insurance business into three segments, North America commercial, international commercial, and global personal.

我們最近宣布將我們的一般保險業務重新調整為三個部門，即北美商業保險、國際商業保險和全球個人保險。

All of our comments will be aligned to these segments.

我們的所有評論都將與這些部分保持一致。

During the quarter, we continued to deliver exceptional underwriting results, and we maintained rigorous expense discipline.

在本季度，我們繼續提供卓越的承保業績，並保持嚴格的費用紀律。

General insurance reported strong net premiums written of $6.1 billion, an increase of 7% year-over-year, led by 8% growth in global commercial lines.

一般保險報告稱，淨保費強勁成長，達 61 億美元，年增 7%，其中全球商業險種成長 8%。

Global commercial generated new business of $1.1 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year, along with continued strong retention of 86% across the portfolio.

全球商業創造了 11 億美元的新業務，比去年同期成長 16%，同時整個投資組合的保留率持續維持 86% 的強勁水準。

Net premiums earned of $6 billion grew 6% year-over-year.

淨保費收入達 60 億美元，年增 6%。

Adjusted after-tax income per share grew 5% year-over-year to $1.30 per share.

調整後每股稅後收益年增 5% 至每股 1.30 美元。

The calendar year combined ratio was 92.5%, and the accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, was 88.6%, which was an outstanding result.

日曆年綜合賠付率為92.5%，不包括巨災的事故年綜合賠付率為88.6%，成績斐然。

2024 was a terrific year of accomplishments for AIG, during which we not only delivered strong financial performance, but also successfully executed significant strategic and operational initiatives.

2024年是AIG取得豐碩成果的一年，在這一年中，我們不僅取得了強勁的財務業績，還成功執行了重大​​策略和營運舉措。

We delivered disciplined growth in our businesses, with a primary focus on risk-adjusted returns supported by our underwriting expertise.

我們的業務實現了有序成長，主要專注於由我們的核保專業知識支援的風險調整回報。

We reshaped the portfolio, including divesting a number of non-core businesses.

我們重組了投資組合，包括剝離一些非核心業務。

Following the sale of Validus Re in November of 2023, we closed on the sale of the global individual personal travel insurance business in December of 2024 to further position us for the future.

繼 2023 年 11 月出售 Validus Re 之後，我們於 2024 年 12 月完成了全球個人旅遊保險業務的出售，以進一步為未來做好準備。

While these divestitures helped to further simplify AIG, the biggest accomplishment of the year was the deconsolidation of Corebridge Financial.

雖然這些資產剝離有助於進一步簡化 AIG，但這一年最大的成就是 Corebridge Financial 的剝離。

The separation was a four-year journey, during which we strategically positioned Corebridge for its future while creating a new capital structure for AIG.

分離過程歷時四年，在此期間，我們為 Corebridge 的未來進行了策略定位，同時為 AIG 創造了新的資本結構。

Some of the major milestones of the Corebridge journey included establishing a very important partnership with Blackstone through an initial 9.9% sale in 2021, executing the largest US IPO in 2022, setting up a strategic asset management partnership with BlackRock, divesting non-core foreign businesses, completing five successful secondary offerings, two of which were in 2024, and culminating in the fourth quarter with AIG's sale of a 22% stake in Corebridge for $3.8 billion to Nippon Life, securing another strategic partner for the company.

Corebridge 發展歷程中的一些重要里程碑包括：透過 2021 年首次出售 9.9% 的股份與黑石建立非常重要的合作夥伴關係，在 2022 年執行美國最大規模的 IPO，與貝萊德建立戰略資產管理合作夥伴關係，剝離非核心海外業務，完成五次成功的二次發行，其中兩次為 2024 億美元出售給日本公司的生命贏得了另一個策略夥伴。

With the accounting deconsolidation of Corebridge, AIG is now a less complex and more streamlined global business.

隨著 Corebridge 會計業務的拆分，AIG 現在已成為一家複雜性更低、流程更精簡的全球性企業。

AIG Next was another operational accomplishment in the year, which further supported our journey to make the company leaner, weave the organization together, and reduce expenses.

AIG Next 是今年的另一項營運成就，它進一步支持了我們精簡公司、整合組織和削減開支的步伐。

We exited 2024 achieving $450 million in run rate savings as part of the program, and we expect the remaining benefits to be realized in the first half of 2025.

作為該計劃的一部分，我們在 2024 年實現了 4.5 億美元的運行率節省，我們預計剩餘的收益將在 2025 年上半年實現。

We also continue to successfully execute on our capital management strategy in a very disciplined manner with nearly $10 billion of actions in 2024.

我們也繼續以非常嚴謹的方式成功執行我們的資本管理策略，2024 年的行動金額接近 100 億美元。

AIG reduced shares outstanding by 12% and increased the quarterly dividend per share by 11%, resulting in the return of $8.1 billion of capital to shareholders.

AIG將流通股數減少了12%，並將每股季度股息提高了11%，從而向股東返還了81億美元的資本。

We received over $4 billion in dividends from our subsidiaries due to the improved profitability of our operations.

由於營運獲利能力的提高，我們從子公司獲得了超過40億美元的股利。

We further reduced our debt to total capital ratio to 17%, and we ended the year with a $7.7 billion of parent liquidity.

我們進一步將債務與總資本比率降低至 17%，年底母公司流動資金達到 77 億美元。

Our capital management actions to date have provided us with tremendous financial flexibility.

我們迄今為止的資本管理行動為我們提供了巨大的財務靈活性。

Another strategic accomplishment in 2024 was the delivery of AIG's first generative artificial intelligence large language model powered solution to support business growth.

2024 年的另一項策略成就是交付 AIG 首個基於產生人工智慧大型語言模型的解決方案，以支援業務成長。

Specifically, we implemented AIG Underwriter Assist, which automates qualitative unstructured data extraction from underlying submissions, internal AIG data sources, and external research in minutes to support underwriter review of submissions.

具體來說，我們實施了 AIG Underwriter Assist，它可以在幾分鐘內從底層提交、內部 AIG 資料來源和外部研究自動提取定性非結構化數據，以支持承保人對提交的審查。

To support and advance our Gen AI aspirations, we've cultivated an ecosystem of top-tier technology partners, including Palantir, Anthropic, and AWS in support of an agentic architecture operating model that allows for maximum flexibility.

為了支援和推進我們的 Gen AI 願景，我們建立了一個由頂級技術合作夥伴組成的生態系統，包括 Palantir、Anthropic 和 AWS，以支援允許最大程度靈活性的代理架構操作模型。

We also launched the Reinsurance Syndicate 2478 at Lloyds through a multi-year strategic relationship with Blackstone as part of AIG's Outwards Reinsurance Program.

我們還透過與黑石集團建立多年的策略合作關係，在勞埃德銀行推出了 2478 再保險辛迪加，作為 AIG 外向再保險計劃的一部分。

The syndicate began underwriting on January 1, 2025, and now serves as a key component of AIG's reinsurance strategy, which I will go over in more detail later.

該集團於 2025 年 1 月 1 日開始承保，現在是 AIG 再保險策略的重要組成部分，稍後我將詳細介紹。

Turning to the financial results for the full year 2024, adjusted after-tax income was $3.3 billion, or $4.95 per diluted share, an increase of 28% year-over-year.

展望 2024 年全年財務業績，調整後稅後收入為 33 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 4.95 美元，年增 28%。

The improvement was primarily driven by stronger underlying underwriting results, expense reduction benefits from AIG Next, an increase in net investment income, and the execution of our balanced capital management strategy.

這項改善主要得益於更強勁的基礎核保績效、AIG Next 帶來的費用減少效益、淨投資收益的增加以及我們平衡的資本管理策略的執行。

General insurance delivered terrific financial performance for 2024.

一般保險在 2024 年取得了出色的財務表現。

For the full year, net premiums written were $23.9 billion, a 6% increase year-over-year.

全年淨承保保費為 239 億美元，較去年同期成長 6%。

Net premiums earned were $23.5 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year.

淨保費收入為 235 億美元，年增 7%。

The action-year combined ratio as adjusted was 88.2%, which marked the sixth consecutive year of improvement, largely driven by the GOE ratio.

經調整後的行動年度綜合比率為 88.2%，這是連續第六年改善，主要得益於 GOE 比率。

The full-year general insurance combined ratio was 91.8%.

全年一般保險綜合成本率為91.8%。

This was the third consecutive year of a sub-92 combined ratio.

這是綜合成本率連續第三年低於 92。

Prior-year reserve development, net of reinsurance, and prior-year premium was $289 million, a benefit of 1.4 points to the loss ratio.

扣除再保險和上年保費後的上年儲備金發展額為 2.89 億美元，損失率提高了 1.4 個百分點。

General insurance full-year underwriting income was $1.9 billion, roughly in line with the prior year, despite higher catastrophe losses.

一般保險全年承保收入為 19 億美元，儘管巨災損失增加，但與前一年大致持平。

In global commercial, net premiums written of $16.8 billion increased 7% year-over-year.

在全球商業領域，淨保費收入達 168 億美元，年增 7%。

North America commercial grew net premiums written by 9% year-over-year.

北美商業淨保費較去年同期成長 9%。

Lexington grew net premiums written by 14%, fueled by robust new business of $1.1 billion, and a 42% increase in submissions year-over-year.

由於 11 億美元的強勁新業務和同比增長 42% 的保費提交量，列剋星敦的淨保費增長了 14%。

That was balanced across all lines.

所有線路都達到了平衡。

Retail casualty grew net premiums written by 11%, excluding the closeout transaction we mentioned in the third quarter.

不包括我們在第三季提到的清盤交易，零售意外險的淨保費增加了 11%。

Our portfolio continues to benefit from a strong rate environment, high retention of our existing portfolio at 93%, and we have select opportunities in new business.

我們的投資組合繼續受益於強勁的利率環境，現有投資組合的保留率高達 93%，而且我們在新業務中擁有精選的機會。

International commercial grew net premiums written by 4% year-over-year, driven by energy at 13%, retail property at 11%, and Talbot at 7%.

國際商業淨保費年增 4%，其中能源成長 13%，零售房地產成長 11%，Talbot 成長 7%。

Global personal grew net premiums written by 3% year-over-year, driven by international personal auto at 8%, and our high net worth business at 6%.

全球個人淨保費年增 3%，其中國際個人汽車險成長 8%，高淨值業務成長 6%。

I would now like to turn to reinsurance and provide some observations on the market and an update on AIG's reinsurance renewals at January 1 of this year.

現在我想談談再保險，並提供一些對市場的觀察以及今年 1 月 1 日 AIG 再保險續保的最新情況。

Overall, AIG had a very strong 1/1 renewal season.

總體而言，AIG 的 1/1 續約季表現非常強勁。

Since the reinsurance market's major reset on January 1 of 2023, our consistency in strategy, placement, and execution has positioned us very favorably.

自 2023 年 1 月 1 日再保險市場重大重置以來，我們在策略、佈局和執行方面的一致性使我們處於非常有利的地位。

Benefiting from an environment of higher retentions and commensurate pricing increases, property reinsurers sought to deploy more capital, but were predominantly focused on upper layers with more remote return periods.

受益於更高留存額和相應價格上漲的環境，財產再保險公司尋求部署更多資本，但主要集中在回報期較長的上層客戶。

Depending on loss activity, limited additional demand led to risk-adjusted rate reductions that were consistent with expectations, with the bottom catastrophe layers renewing flat to down 5% and upper catastrophe layers receiving reductions of 10% to 15%.

根據損失活動，有限的額外需求導致風險調整後的費率降低與預期一致，底層巨災層續保持平至下降 5%，上層巨災層續保費率降低 10% 至 15%。

I want to provide some context and observations on the changes in the market as a result of the increase in reinsurance retentions, which I've mentioned on previous calls.

我想提供一些背景資訊和對再保險自留金增加導致的市場變化的觀察，我在之前的電話會議上提到過這一點。

It's creating an interesting dynamic for the market in 2025.

這將為 2025 年的市場創造有趣的動態。

One insightful statistic from an AON study of over 150 companies over the past 10 years is that retentions have risen significantly around the world, with US attachment points on average increasing by 280%.

AON 對過去 10 年超過 150 家公司進行的研究得出了一個有洞察力的統計數據：全球員工留任率大幅上升，美國員工留任點平均增加了 280%。

As a reminder, in 2024, insured loss from natural catastrophes was approximately $145 billion, the sixth costliest on record, and this compares to the average for the last five years of $140 billion.

提醒一下，2024 年自然災害造成的保險損失約為 1,450 億美元，是有史以來第六大損失，而過去五年的平均損失為 1,400 億美元。

With the increased retentions and increased catastrophe activity, much more of the risk is now being retained by insurance companies.

隨著留存額的增加和災難活動的增多，保險公司現在承擔的風險越來越大。

In 2023 and 2024, primary insurance carriers are estimated to retain approximately 90% of the insured loss from natural catastrophes, with the reinsurance industry absorbing 10%.

2023 年和 2024 年，主要保險公司預計將承擔自然災害保險損失的約 90%，再保險業將吸收 10%。

Contrast this with the period prior to 2023, reinsurers would often share a significantly higher proportion of the insured loss, with the distribution of losses between insurers and reinsurers at approximately 50-50 on average.

與 2023 年之前相比，再保險公司通常會承擔更高比例的保險損失，保險公司和再保險公司之間的損失分配平均約為 50-50。

Meanwhile, AIG is focused on maintaining lower excess of loss attachment points, including meaningful aggregate coverage to manage frequency of loss tailored to our geographic exposure and to the type of perils that we are exposed.

同時，AIG 致力於維持較低的超額損失附加點，包括有意義的整體覆蓋範圍，以管理根據我們的地理風險和我們所面臨的風險類型量身定制的損失頻率。

Taking a closer look at wildfires and how the markets change, the average annual insured loss from 2000 to 2024 was approximately $4 billion globally, of which the US is the majority at $3.5 billion.

仔細觀察山火及其市場變化，2000 年至 2024 年全球平均每年保險損失約 40 億美元，其中美國所佔比例最大，為 35 億美元。

Narrow that period to the last 10 years, and average annual losses from wildfires have roughly doubled to around $8 billion, of which $7.4 billion has occurred in the United States.

將這段時期縮小至過去 10 年，森林火災造成的年均損失約增加了一倍，達到 80 億美元左右，其中 74 億美元發生在美國。

Insured loss estimates for the California wildfires are currently coalescing around $40 billion, with some estimates from credible catastrophe experts reaching as high as $50 billion.

目前，加州野火的保險損失估計約為 400 億美元，一些可靠的災難專家的估計則高達 500 億美元。

The economic loss is estimated to be in excess of $250 billion, producing a protection gap of as much as 80%.

經濟損失估計超過2,500億美元，保護缺口高達80%。

Contrast that to the top 10 largest insured CAT events on record, where insurance has typically covered 40% to 50% of the economic loss.

與有紀錄以來投保額最大的 10 起 CAT 事件相比，保險通常能承擔 40% 至 50% 的經濟損失。

As a point of reference, insurance covered approximately 50% of the economic loss from Hurricane Katrina, the largest natural catastrophe event this century.

作為參考，保險承擔了本世紀最大的自然災害「卡崔娜颶風」造成的約50%的經濟損失。

The California wildfires demonstrate the increased loss from secondary perils and the magnitude of tail events that are not captured well in modeling.

加州山火表明，次生災害造成的損失增加，而尾部事件的嚴重程度在模型中未能得到很好捕捉。

In a month with one of the lowest model probabilities of loss, the California wildfires alone would make the first quarter of 2025 the second most costly first quarter for natural catastrophes on record. 15 years ago, adjusting for inflation, $100 billion was considered the benchmark for an outsized CAT year.

在模型損失機率最低的一個月中，光是加州的山林大火將使 2025 年第一季成為有史以來自然災害損失第二大的第一季。 15年前，經過通貨膨脹調整後，1000億美元被視為超大CAT年度的基準。

But with the last eight years averaging more than $140 billion, this thinking is clearly outdated.

但考慮到過去八年平均債務總額超過1,400億美元，這種想法顯然已經過時了。

If you assume the upper end of the range for the California wildfires, taking a $50 billion loss pick, adding the average annual insured loss for the past eight years, and assuming we have an active but not abnormal wind season, which is realistic given the 2024 hurricane season experience and ocean temperatures are the warmest on record, 2025 could be a year of more than $200 billion of insured catastrophe losses.

如果假設加州野火的損失範圍上限為 500 億美元，加上過去八年的平均年度保險損失，並假設我們有一個活躍但不異常的風季，這是現實的，因為 2024 年颶風季節的經歷和海洋溫度都是有記錄以來最高的，那麼 2025 年可能會成為保險巨災損失超過 2000 億美元的一年。

This could recalibrate the entire industry.

這可能會重新調整整個產業。

AIG reduced our overall California exposure beginning in 2022.

從 2022 年開始，AIG 減少了對加州的整體投資。

This decision, coupled with our 2025 reinsurance structure, has effectively reduced our exposure such that the expected loss to AIG from the recent wildfires is approximately $500 million before reinstatement premiums and barring any unforeseen additional developments.

這項決定，加上我們的 2025 年再保險結構，有效地降低了我們的風險敞口，因此，在支付恢復保費之前並且排除任何不可預見的額外發展的情況下，最近的野火給 AIG 造成的預期損失約為 5 億美元。

Turning specifically to AIG's reinsurance outcomes at 1/1, we successfully maintained our prior objectives, our reinsurance purchasing strategy, to preserve and optimize capital and enhance the quality of earning through active management of the volatility of our underwriting results.

具體來說，談到 AIG 的 1/1 再保險結果，我們成功維持了先前的目標，即我們的再保險購買策略，即透過積極管理承保結果的波動來保存和優化資本並提高獲利品質。

Starting with our property catastrophe placements, our core commercial North America retention of $500 million remained unchanged in nominal terms for the third consecutive year despite growth in the underlying portfolio.

從我們的財產巨災配置開始，儘管基礎投資組合有所成長，但我們的核心北美商業留存額為 5 億美元，名義上連續第三年保持不變。

We also expanded coverage and maintained our core international occurrence attachments and renewed our dedicated occurrence tower for a high net worth business which attaches at $200 million.

我們還擴大了覆蓋範圍，維護了我們的核心國際事件附件，並為價值 2 億美元的高淨值企業更新了我們的專用事件塔。

We improved our $500 million of aggregate protection by reducing the annual aggregate deductible for North America, creating a specific non-peak section, and expanding the coverage for the high net worth portfolio.

我們透過降低北美地區的年度總免賠額、設立特定的非高峰期部分以及擴大高淨值投資組合的覆蓋範圍，提高了 5 億美元的總保護額。

Overall, for North America, depending on loss distribution, AIG's modeled net first loss exposure, including the impact of reinstatement premiums, is comparable to 2024, and our second and third event exposure is materially lower following this renewal cycle.

總體而言，對於北美而言，根據損失分佈，AIG 模擬的首次淨損失敞口（包括複效保費的影響）與 2024 年相當，而我們的第二和第三次事件敞口在此續保週期後大幅降低。

For all of our major proportional treaties, we were able to improve or maintain our seeding commission levels, a strong recognition of our underwriting expertise, and our position as a market leader across multiple classes.

對於我們所有的主要比例合同，我們都能夠提高或維持我們的種子佣金水平、對我們承保專業知識的強烈認可以及我們在多個類別的市場領先地位。

We were also able to establish two new proportional treaties to support the high net worth portfolio, our strategy to establish private client select as a standalone MGU, and introduce capacity to support growth in the platform beyond AIG's balance sheet has been validated with the addition of five of the leading underwriting companies in the world to the platform, taking 30% of our homeowners and auto portfolios through quarter share reinsurance.

我們還能夠建立兩個新的比例條約來支持高淨值投資組合，我們的策略是建立私人客戶選擇作為獨立的 MGU，並引入支持平台超出 AIG 資產負債表的增長的能力，這些都已隨著全球五家領先的承保公司加入該平台而得到驗證，通過季度份額再保險佔據了我們房主和汽車投資組合的 30%。

Casualty remains an area of caution for many reinsurers, with appetite generally diminished.

對許多再保險公司來說，意外險仍是需要謹慎的領域，其興趣普遍減弱。

They are highly selective of the insurance companies they support, and overall, the casualty renewals were more orderly for the companies that have strong underwriting portfolios.

他們對於所支持的保險公司非常挑剔，總體而言，擁有強大承保組合的保險公司的意外險續保更加有序。

We were pleased with the successful renewal of our core casualty treaties at favorable terms.

我們很高興能夠以優惠條件成功續簽核心傷亡保險條約。

This renewal cycle, again, signals the strong external industry recognition that AIG continues to be a leader in the casualty market.

這項更新週期再次顯示了外部產業的強烈認可，即AIG將繼續保持意外險市場的領先地位。

We remain optimistic on the outlook for our casualty portfolio and see considerable opportunities ahead while being cautious and very focused on maintaining our high underwriting standards.

我們對我們的意外險組合的前景保持樂觀，並看到未來有相當大的機遇，同時保持謹慎並非常注重維持我們的高承保標準。

Also of significance for AIG at 1/1 was our launch of a new dedicated reinsurance syndicate at Lloyd's supported by funds managed by Blackstone.

對 AIG 來說，同樣重要的是，我們在勞合社推出了一個新的專門的再保險集團，並由黑石集團管理的基金提供支援。

This pioneering structure, announced in December of 2024, is an example of how insurance risk can be directly connected to sophisticated investors to generate attractive returns for both parties.

這項開創性的結構於 2024 年 12 月宣布，是如何將保險風險直接與成熟投資者聯繫起來，為雙方帶來可觀回報的一個例子。

The syndicate provides AIG with a long-term, meaningful reinsurance partner and an additional source of fee income.

該財團為 AIG 提供了一個長期、有意義的再保險合作夥伴和額外的費用收入來源。

Blackstone has access to a high-quality, well-diversified underwriting portfolio with the ability to generate attractive returns by taking a sizable participation in the majority of AIG's outward reinsurance treaties at market terms.

黑石集團擁有高品質、多元化的承保組合，並且能夠透過以市場條款大量參與 AIG 的大部分對外再保險合約來獲得可觀的回報。

We're pleased to partner with a leading global asset manager on its innovative structure.

我們很高興與全球領先的資產管理公司在其創新結構上合作。

Our reinsurance strategy has played a pivotal role in our journey to establish AIG as an industry-leading global P&C underwriter.

我們的再保險策略在將 AIG 打造為業界領先的全球財產和意外保險承保人的過程中發揮了關鍵作用。

We're grateful for the long-term support and partnership of the industry's leading reinsurers, which has helped position us where we are today.

我們感謝業界領先再保險公司的長期支持和合作，這幫助我們取得了今天的成就。

Turning to capital management, we continue to execute very well on our balance and discipline strategy.

談到資本管理，我們繼續出色地執行我們的平衡與紀律策略。

We made major progress in 2024 and in many ways exceeded expectations.

我們在 2024 年取得了重大進展，並且在許多方面超出了預期。

As we outlined last year, our guidance was to repurchase $10 billion of shares in 2024 and in 2025.

正如我們去年概述的那樣，我們的指導方針是在 2024 年和 2025 年回購價值 100 億美元的股票。

The current guidance is expected to bring us within our target share count range of 550 million to 600 million shares.

目前的指引預計將使我們的股票數量達到 5.5 億至 6 億股的目標範圍。

We have $3.4 billion of the $10 billion guidance that I provided remaining for 2025.

我為 2025 年提供的指導金額為 100 億美元，目前我們還剩下 34 億美元。

We will likely exceed this guidance, and we have over $5.6 billion remaining on our current share repurchase authorization.

我們可能會超過這項預期，目前我們授權的股票回購金額還剩餘 56 億美元。

We expect to return to more normalized levels of share repurchases as we enter 2026, assuming we have no further sell-downs of Corebridge or other additional sources of liquidity.

假設我們不再進一步拋售 Corebridge 或其他額外流動資金來源，我們預計到 2026 年股票回購將恢復到更正常的水平。

We ended the year with a very strong parent liquidity of $7.7 billion.

截至年底，我們的母公司流動資金非常強勁，達到 77 億美元。

Additionally, we do not anticipate taking any actions that would significantly affect leverage in 2025.

此外，我們預計不會採取任何會對 2025 年槓桿率產生重大影響的行動。

We are committed to reviewing our dividend annually and anticipate that we will increase our dividend in 2025 in line with the decrease in our share count over the past year, subject to AIG board approval.

我們承諾每年審查我們的股息，並預計在 2025 年，我們將根據過去一年股份數量的減少增加股息，但須經 AIG 董事會批准。

Going forward, our key focus is on profitable growth and allocating capital to the best opportunities for the most attractive risk-adjusted return.

展望未來，我們的重點是獲利性成長，並將資本配置給最具吸引力的風險調整回報的最佳機會。

Our very early forecast indicates we're off to a strong start for 2025, and barring any unforeseen developments, we expect to achieve meaningful organic growth driven by our global commercial business and the benefits of our restructured reinsurance program.

我們的早期預測表明，我們在 2025 年將有一個良好的開端，除非出現任何不可預見的發展，否則我們預計在全球商業業務和重組再保險計劃的好處的推動下實現有意義的有機增長。

As a result of our disciplined capital management, combined with our sustained underwriting excellence and continued focus on expense management, we're well on track to deliver a 10% plus core operating ROE for the full year 2025.

由於我們嚴格的資本管理，加上我們持續的承保卓越性和對費用管理的持續關注，我們預計在 2025 年全年實現 10% 以上的核心營運 ROE。

We have several ways in which we can deliver on this commitment.

我們有多種方法可以履行這項承諾。

These are maintaining our strong underwriting results with a focus on improving global personal, improving our investment income yields, executing on a simpler, leaner business model across AIG, and continued balanced capital management.

這些措施維持了我們強勁的承保業績，重點是改善全球個人保險業務、提高我們的投資收益收益率、在 AIG 範圍內執行更簡單、更精簡的業務模式以及繼續平衡的資本管理。

In summary, I'm very pleased with our outstanding fourth quarter and full year 2024 performance. 2025 is a new chapter for AIG, and we're moving forward with strong momentum.

總而言之，我對我們 2024 年第四季和全年的出色表現感到非常滿意。 2025年是AIG的新篇章，我們正以強勁的勢頭向前邁進。

We continue to differentiate ourselves with deep industry expertise and disciplined focus on underwriting excellence and outstanding operations and claims capabilities which drive exceptional value for our clients, partners, and stakeholders.

我們繼續憑藉深厚的行業專業知識、對卓越承保的專注以及出色的營運和索賠能力來脫穎而出，為我們的客戶、合作夥伴和利益相關者創造卓越的價值。

With that, I will turn the call over to Keith.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給 Keith。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

This morning, I will provide details on fourth quarter results for general insurance, net investment income, and other operations, as well as key balance sheet items.

今天上午，我將詳細介紹一般保險、淨投資收益和其他業務以及關鍵資產負債表項目的第四季度業績。

I would like to begin by addressing a few changes in our financial reporting.

首先我想談談我們財務報告中的幾個變化。

As Peter mentioned, we have realigned our general insurance business into three reporting segments, North America commercial, international commercial, and global personal.

正如彼得所提到的，我們已將我們的一般保險業務重新調整為三個報告部門，即北美商業、國際商業和全球個人。

Global personal lines have been consolidated into a single reporting segment.

全球個人險種已合併為單一報告分部。

This brings together our global accident and health, personal home and auto, global warranty and services, and high net worth businesses.

這將我們的全球意外和健康、個人家居和汽車、全球保固和服務以及高淨值業務整合在一起。

Along with our new reporting segments, we have updated the product line net premiums written disclosure on page 8 of our financial supplement to give more transparency into the underlying trends in our businesses.

隨著我們新的報告分部的發展，我們也更新了財務補充文件第 8 頁上的產品線淨保費書面揭露，以便更透明地了解我們業務的基本趨勢。

The three segments and updated product line disclosure are reflected retrospectively in AIG's 2024 fourth quarter and full year financial results.

這三個部門和更新的產品線揭露分別反映在 AIG 2024 年第四季和全年財務表現。

Additionally, we have streamlined other operations to include activities only related to having a global regulated parent company, and now exclude the results of runoff businesses from adjusted pre-tax income.

此外，我們還精簡了其他業務，僅包括與擁有全球監管母公司相關的活動，現在將流失業務的結果排除在調整後的稅前收入之外。

We believe these changes enhance the clarity of our financial disclosures and provide a better representation and alignment of our core business.

我們相信這些變化提高了我們的財務揭露的清晰度並更好地展現和協調了我們的核心業務。

Historical results have been recast to reflect these changes with de minimis impact to operating EPS.

歷史結果已被重新調整以反映這些變化，且對每股盈餘的影響微乎其微。

Other operations now largely consists of net investment income from our parent liquidity portfolio, Corebridge dividend income, corporate general operating expenses, and interest expense.

其他業務目前主要包括來自母公司流動性投資組合的淨投資收益、Corebridge 股息收入、企業一般營運費用和利息費用。

Turning to our fourth quarter general insurance results, adjusted pre-tax income or APTI was $1.2 billion.

談到我們第四季的一般保險業績，調整後的稅前收入或 APTI 為 12 億美元。

In North America commercial, net premiums written increased 9% year-over-year driven by strong new business, which grew 17% with retention of 85%.

在北美商業險方面，受強勁新業務的推動，淨承保保費年增 9%，新業務成長 17%，留存率達 85%。

International commercial net premiums written increased 7% year-over-year with new business growth of 15% and excellent retention of 88%.

國際商業淨保費收入年增 7%，新業務成長 15%，留存率高達 88%。

In global personal, net premiums written increased 1% on a constant currency basis.

在全球個人保險領域，以固定匯率計算，淨承保保費增加了 1%。

The sale of the global personal travel and assistance business, which closed in early December was about a 4 point headwind to the year-over-year comparison.

12 月初完成的全球個人旅行和援助業務出售，與去年同期相比下降了約 4 個百分點。

Adjusting for that, growth was 5% in the quarter on a comparable basis driven by 16% growth in our global high net worth business.

經過上述調整後，本季的可比成長率為 5%，這得益於我們全球高淨值業務 16% 的成長。

The sale of the global personal travel business will have an impact on the global personal segment in 2025.

全球個人旅遊業務的出售將對2025年的全球個人旅遊市場產生影響。

For full year 2024, this segment has $7.1 billion of net premiums written.

2024 年全年，該部門的淨保費收入為 71 億美元。

When modeling 2025, the sale of the global travel business will remove approximately $720 million of net premiums written.

以2025年為例，全球旅遊業務的出售將帶來約7.2億美元的淨保費收入。

This is a roughly 10 percentage point growth impact for the segment.

這對該部門的成長產生了約 10 個百分點的影響。

General insurance underwriting income for the quarter was $454 million, a $156 million decrease from the prior year quarter driven entirely by higher catastrophe losses.

本季一般保險承保收入為 4.54 億美元，較去年同期減少 1.56 億美元，主要因災難損失增加。

General insurance calendar year combined ratio was 92.5%.

一般保險歷年綜合成本率為92.5%。

The accident year combined ratio as adjusted was 88.6%, a 30 basis points increase from the prior year quarter.

經調整的事故年度綜合比率為 88.6%，較去年同期增加 30 個基點。

This was driven by a slight increase in the accident year loss ratio while the expense ratio remained flat despite absorbing more AIG parent expenses.

這是由於事故年度損失率略有上升，儘管吸收了更多AIG母公司的費用，費用率仍保持穩定。

Catastrophe losses were $325 million or 5.5 points on the loss ratio.

巨災損失為 3.25 億美元，損失率上升 5.5 個百分點。

This includes $224 million of losses from Hurricane Milton and an adjustment for prior quarters events largely from Hurricane Helene which occurred on the final day of the third quarter.

其中包括颶風米爾頓造成的 2.24 億美元損失，以及主要因第三季最後一天發生的颶風海倫而對前幾季事件所做的調整。

Turning to reserves and our detailed valuation reviews or DVRs.

轉向儲備金和我們的詳細估值評估或 DVR。

This quarter general insurance had $102 million of favorable prior year development including $34 million from the ADC amortization, $16 million from our fourth quarter DVRs and $52 million from non-DVR adjustments, predominantly recognition of AVE on US short tail lines.

本季度，一般保險業務取得了 1.02 億美元的有利上年發展成果，其中包括來自 ADC 攤銷的 3,400 萬美元、來自第四季度 DVR 的 1,600 萬美元以及來自非 DVR 調整的 5,200 萬美元，主要是對美國短尾險種 AVE 的確認。

The fourth quarter's DVRs covered the remaining 10% or approximately $4 billion of our total lost reserves focusing on the remaining portion of US financial lines, global personal lines, Canada and Glatfelter.

第四季的 DVR 涵蓋了我們總損失準備金的剩餘 10% 或約 40 億美元，重點是美國金融線路、全球個人線路、加拿大和 Glatfelter 的剩餘部分。

The favorable prior year development was primarily driven by Canada casualty and US E&O.

去年同期的良好發展主要得益於加拿大傷亡險和美國 E&O 險。

We conduct a comprehensive DVR annually for each product line across our $40 billion of reserves.

我們每年都會對 400 億美元儲備中的每條產品線進行全面的 DVR。

While DVRs are spread across quarters, we have a robust year-round process on our entire book in addition to our quarterly DVRs.

雖然 DVR 分佈在各個季度，但除了季度 DVR 之外，我們還對整個帳簿進行了強有力的全年流程。

Going forward, our comments will focus less on reporting the DVR outcomes and more on our overall reserve analysis which reflects AVE, claims diagnostics and rate monitoring across all lines and geographies.

展望未來，我們的評論將較少側重於報告 DVR 結果，而更多地側重於反映 AVE、索賠診斷和所有線路和地區的費率監控的整體儲備分析。

One additional item I would like to discuss is a provisional reserve we created in 2022 in response to the potential uncertainty with inflation and other variables in the post-pandemic macro environment.

我想討論的另一件事是我們在 2022 年創建的臨時儲備，以應對疫情後宏觀環境中通膨和其他變數可能帶來的不確定性。

This provision which is included in IBNR, has been carried in the lines that we viewed as most susceptible to rising inflation with a large portion booked in our workers' compensation reserves.

這項規定包含在 IBNR 中，我們認為這項規定最容易受到通貨膨脹上升的影響，其中很大一部分計入了我們的工人賠償儲備金。

This year, we undertook a thorough review of the uncertainty provision which was set above the loss picks from our actuarial reviews and refined our analysis including its allocation among our lines of business.

今年，我們對根據精算審核得出的損失預測之上的不確定性準備金進行了徹底審查，並完善了我們的分析，包括其在我們業務線之間的分配。

The uncertainty provision did not reflect any emergence and we have maintained the overall estimate.

不確定性準備金並未反映任何情況，我們維持整體估計不變。

However, we have decided to reduce the provision in excess workers' comp and reapportion approximately $150 million of the provision within excess casualty.

然而，我們已決定減少超額工人補償的準備金，並在超額傷亡中重新分配約 1.5 億美元的準備金。

We elected to move this portion of the reserve to excess casualty as the development factors and the length of the tail can drive a wider range of outcomes on our reserves.

我們選擇將這部分儲備轉移到過剩傷亡中，因為發展因素和尾部長度可能會對我們的儲備產生更廣泛的影響。

To be clear, our traditional reserve methods are not indicating any emergence in excess casualty but we felt given the nature of the provision, it was more appropriate to be situated within this line.

需要明確的是，我們的傳統儲備方法並未顯示會出現過度傷亡，但我們認為，考慮到儲備的性質，將其置於這條線內更為合適。

As a reminder, our reserving philosophy is to react to bad news quickly and wait to recognize good news over time as we monitor developments.

提醒一下，我們的保留理念是對壞消息做出快速反應，並在監測事態發展的同時等待好消息的發生。

Moving on to rates and pricing, fourth quarter global commercial lines pricing which includes rate and exposure increased 5% year-over-year excluding workers' compensation and financial lines.

談到費率和定價，第四季全球商業險定價（包括費率和風險敞口，不包括工人賠償和金融險）年增 5%。

In North America commercial, renewal rate increased 3% year-over-year or 7% if you exclude workers' compensation and financial lines.

在北美商業領域，續約率年增 3%，如果不包括工人賠償和金融線，則成長 7%。

Exposures increased 2% year-over-year with an all-in pricing change above loss cost trend.

風險敞口年增 2%，整體價格變動高於損失成本趨勢。

Property market conditions were under pressure in the fourth quarter due to increased competition across both the admitted and E&S markets while the underwriting margin remained healthy supported by the cumulative rate increases over the past several years and our disciplined approach.

由於特許經營市場和 E&S 市場競爭加劇，第四季度房地產市場面臨壓力，而受過去幾年累計費率上漲和我們嚴謹態度的支持，承保利潤率依然保持健康。

In North America casualty lines, rate continued to outpace loss cost trend with increases in the mid-teens in wholesale and excess casualty.

在北美傷亡險中，費率持續超過損失成本趨勢，批發和超額傷亡險的費率均出現了中度增長。

In North America financial lines, we continue to experience headwinds but see indications that rate reductions are moderating.

在北美金融領域，我們繼續面臨阻力，但看到降息勢頭正在減緩的跡象。

In international commercial, overall pricing was flat or up 2% excluding financial lines.

在國際商業領域，不包括金融業務，整體定價持平或上漲 2%。

While rate is below trend, we feel good about our book given we've had over 60% cumulative risk-adjusted rate since 2018.

儘管利率低於趨勢水平，但考慮到自 2018 年以來我們的累積風險調整利率已超過 60%，我們對我們的帳面狀況感到滿意。

Our well-diversified portfolio allows us to navigate different market conditions effectively prioritizing lines of business that offer the most compelling risk-adjusted returns while upholding our underwriting standards.

我們高度多元化的投資組合使我們能夠有效應對不同的市場條件，優先考慮提供最具吸引力的風險調整回報的業務線，同時堅持我們的承保標準。

For the full year 2024, excluding workers' compensation and financial lines, global commercial lines pricing which includes rate and exposure increased 6% with 8% in North America and 4% in international.

就 2024 年全年而言，不包括工傷賠償和金融險，包括費率和風險敞口在內的全球商業險定價上漲了 6%，其中北美上漲 8%，國際上漲 4%。

Turning to other operations, fourth quarter adjusted pre-tax loss was $150 million which improved 34% year-over-year.

談到其他業務，第四季調整後稅前虧損為 1.5 億美元，較去年同期改善 34%。

This was primarily driven by lower GOE reflecting AIG Next benefits as well as incremental movement of GOE into general insurance.

這主要是由於反映了 AIG Next 福利的 GOE 降低以及 GOE 逐漸轉向一般保險。

We continue to realize the benefits of AIG Next and push non-public company related expenses into the business.

我們持續實現AIG Next的好處，並將非上市公司相關費用推入業務中。

We expect corporate GOE expenses to migrate towards approximately a $90 million per quarter run rate over the course of 2025.

我們預計，到 2025 年，企業 GOE 支出將達到每季約 9,000 萬美元。

Interest expense improved $10 million year-over-year as a result of our liability management which reduced total debt by $1.6 billion in 2024.

由於我們的負債管理，2024 年的總債務減少了 16 億美元，利息支出比去年同期減少了 1,000 萬美元。

One other item I want to discuss is a runoff business blackboard.

我想要討論的另一件事是流失業務黑板。

In the fourth quarter, we increased the prior accident year reserves for blackboard by $112 million to reflect loss activity that has been well above what was expected.

在第四季度，我們將 Blackboard 的上年度事故準備金增加了 1.12 億美元，以反映遠超出預期的損失活動。

Turning now to investment income.

現在來談談投資收益。

For the full year 2024, net investment income on an APTI basis was $3.5 billion, up 13% from 2023, primarily driven by Corebridge dividends, an increase in short-term investment income, and higher reinvestment rates on fixed maturities.

2024 年全年，以 APTI 計算的淨投資收入為 35 億美元，較 2023 年增長 13%，主要得益於 Corebridge 股息、短期投資收入的增加以及固定期限的再投資利率上升。

Fourth quarter net investment income on an APTI basis was $872 million, largely unchanged year-over-year.

以 APTI 計算，第四季淨投資收益為 8.72 億美元，與去年同期相比基本持平。

General insurance net investment income was $779 million, including income on fixed maturities, loans, and short-term investments of $720 million and alternative investment income of $72 million.

一般保險淨投資收入為 7.79 億美元，其中包括固定期限、貸款和短期投資收入 7.2 億美元以及另類投資收入 7,200 萬美元。

Other operations net investment income was $93 million, consisting of income from our parent liquidity portfolio of $64 million and Corebridge dividend income of $29 million.

其他業務淨投資收入為 9,300 萬美元，其中包括來自母公司流動性投資組合的收入 6,400 萬美元和 Corebridge 股息收入 2,900 萬美元。

During the fourth quarter, we continued to benefit from higher reinvestment rates on the fixed maturity and loan portfolio.

在第四季度，我們繼續受益於固定期限和貸款組合的更高再投資利率。

The average new money yield of 5.38% was roughly 175 basis points higher than the sales and maturities in the quarter.

平均新資金收益率為 5.38%，比本季的銷售額和到期金額高出約 175 個基點。

The annualized yield on the fixed maturity and loan portfolio, excluding calls and prepayments, was 3.92%, up 4 basis points year-over-year, or 3 basis points sequentially.

固定期限和貸款組合（不包括贖回款和預付款）的年化收益率為 3.92%，較去年同期成長 4 個基點，較上季成長 3 個基點。

Fourth quarter alternative investment income was $67 million, an increase of $26 million year-over-year, driven by improved private equity performance, partially offset by lower hedge fund income, owing to our strategy to reduce exposure.

第四季另類投資收入為 6,700 萬美元，比去年同期增加 2,600 萬美元，這得益於私募股權投資績效的改善，但由於我們採取了減少風險敞口的策略，對沖基金收入下降部分抵消了這一增長。

Private equity yielded 6.42% for the quarter, below our long-term expected return of 7.5%.

本季私募股權收益率為 6.42%，低於我們長期預期的 7.5% 回報率。

The makeup of our private equity portfolio is a little over 25% real estate, and with the current macro environment, we expect pressure from this portion of the portfolio to continue through 2025.

我們的私募股權投資組合中房地產成分略高於 25%，在當前的宏觀環境下，我們預計這部分投資組合的壓力將持續到 2025 年。

Turning to tax, the adjusted effective tax rate for the fourth quarter and full year was 24.6%.

談到稅收，第四季和全年調整後的有效稅率為 24.6%。

For 2025, we expect the adjusted tax rate to be in line with 2024, but may vary based on the geographic mix of income.

對於 2025 年，我們預計調整後的稅率將與 2024 年保持一致，但可能會根據收入的地理結構而有所不同。

We finished 2024 with a very strong balance sheet.

我們以非常強勁的資產負債表結束了 2024 年。

Book value per share was $70.16 at year end, up 8% from December 31, 2023, mainly due to the favorable impact of lower interest rates on AOCI and reduced shares outstanding.

年末每股帳面價值為 70.16 美元，較 2023 年 12 月 31 日成長 8%，主要由於利率下降對 AOCI 的有利影響以及流通股減少。

Adjusted book value per share was $73.79, down 6% from year end 2023, primarily due to the impact of Corebridge deconsolidation.

調整後每股帳面價值為 73.79 美元，較 2023 年底下降 6%，主要由於 Corebridge 合併拆分的影響。

Core operating ROE was 9.1% in the quarter and for the full year.

本季及全年核心營運 ROE 均為 9.1%。

As Peter laid out, we are committed to achieving our target of a 10% plus core operating ROE for the full year 2025.

正如彼得所說，我們致力於實現 2025 年全年核心營運 ROE 達到 10% 以上的目標。

As Peter mentioned, we had a substantial $6.6 billion return to shareholders in 2024 through share repurchases and are well on our way to completing our guidance of $10 billion of repurchases in 2024 and 2025.

正如彼得所提到的，2024 年我們透過股票回購為股東帶來了 66 億美元的豐厚回報，並且我們正在順利完成 2024 年和 2025 年 100 億美元回購目標的道路上。

Through February 7, we have repurchased $952 million of shares year to date in 2025.

截至 2 月 7 日，2025 年迄今我們已回購了價值 9.52 億美元的股票。

We are proud of the significant progress we've made in 2024 and the ability to deliver outstanding core operating results while successfully executing significant transformation initiatives.

我們為 2024 年取得的重大進展以及在成功執行重大轉型計劃的同時提供出色的核心營運績效的能力感到自豪。

With that, I will turn the call back over to Peter.

說完這些，我會把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Keith and Michelle, we're ready for questions.

謝謝基斯和米歇爾，我們準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Alex Scott, Barclays.

（操作員指示）巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

First one I have is on the -- the core ROE that you gave.

我首先要問的是您給出的核心 ROE。

I just wanted to confirm that that's including the wildfire impact and it looks like it's running a bit better than I would have expected based on the combined ratios that you've talked about in the past and corporate expenses and so forth.

我只是想確認這包括了野火的影響，而且根據您過去談到的綜合比率和公司費用等，看起來它的運作情況比我預期的要好一些。

So I was just interested if you define it all on maybe some of the things that you're running ahead on that are improving relative to some of those comments you've made in the past?

所以我只是感興趣，您是否能定義這一切，也許您正在推進的一些事情相對於您過去所做的一些評論有所改進？

Yes.

是的。

Certainly, Alex.

當然，亞歷克斯。

And yes, we are confirming the 10%-plus ROE, including the $500 million wildfire that we had in January.

是的，我們確認 ROE 超過 10%，其中包括 1 月發生的損失達 5 億美元的山火。

If I could spend a second, I think we've done an exceptional job over the past few years of structuring our sort of global portfolio structuring the reinsurance to supplement that and having net retentions well within our expectations and what we budget.

如果我可以花一點時間的話，我認為我們在過去幾年中做得非常出色，建立了我們的全球投資組合，建立了再保險來補充這一點，並且淨留存額完全符合我們的預期和預算。

If I look at what we do budget for AAL over the last couple of years relative to our overall experience, it's been exactly where we anticipated even with elevated activity.

如果我回顧過去幾年我們為 AAL 制定的預算以及我們的整體經驗，就會發現即使活動有所增加，預算也完全符合我們的預期。

So this is no different, I mentioned on the call that we're going to take first event losses around the same with reinsurance that we did in 2024, but second and third events will be less.

所以這沒有什麼不同，我在電話會議上提到，我們承擔的第一次事件損失與 2024 年的再保險損失大致相同，但第二次和第三次事件的損失會較少。

And so that's how we structured it.

這就是我們的結構。

And we are confirming guidance on the 10%, including what happened in January.

我們正在確認有關 10% 的指導，包括 1 月的情況。

I think Keith noted that we have a lot of different ways in which we can sort of drive improvement in terms of earnings.

我認為基斯指出，我們有很多不同的方法可以推動收益方面的改善。

I did as well in my prepared remarks.

我在準備好的發言中也這麼做了。

We're really pleased with the commercial portfolio and how it's performed on a combined ratio basis, we just continue to -- I think, elevate our overall performance.

我們對商業投資組合以及其綜合比率的表現感到非常滿意，我認為我們將繼續提升我們的整體表現。

I have singled out personal because I think that combined ratio is not where any of us want to be -- we consolidated that under one leader.

我之所以單獨挑出個人問題，是因為我認為綜合比率不是我們任何人想要的水平——我們將其整合在一位領導之下。

John Hancock, he's shown exceptional leadership in what he's done with the commercial portfolio in international.

約翰漢考克在國際商業投資組合方面展現了卓越的領導能力。

And I think it's going to give us a much better line of sight on the overall portfolio in terms of how we can improve it, which we fully expect to do.

我認為這將使我們對整體投資組合有更好的了解，知道如何改進它，我們也完全期待這樣做。

I think there's opportunities in further capital management.

我認為在進一步的資本管理方面還有機會。

And I think we reconfirmed what we're doing on return of capital to shareholders.

我認為我們再次確認了我們向股東返還資本的做法。

So I think we have a lot of very positive momentum and want to confirm guidance.

因此，我認為我們有很多非常積極的勢頭，並希望確認指導。

Do you have a follow-up, Alex?

亞歷克斯，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So as a follow-up, I'd just be interested in some of the areas you're targeting towards organic growth and maybe in particular, your updated view on price adequacy just given some of the declines in property pricing in E&S and then maybe also on casualty.

因此作為後續問題，我只對您針對有機增長所針對的一些領域感興趣，特別是考慮到 E&S 的房地產價格有所下降，您對價格充分性的最新看法，也許還對意外險也感興趣。

Okay.

好的。

I'm going to have John Hancock and Don Bailey talk a little bit about the growth because they've done an exceptional job in terms of outlining where our portfolio can grow, focusing on risk-adjusted returns.

我將讓約翰漢考克和唐貝利談談成長問題，因為他們在概述我們的投資組合可以成長的地方方面做得非常出色，重點關注風險調整後的回報。

What I would say and this is complementing their efforts is that we've just done a tremendous job in terms of client retention focusing on an underwriting culture of maintaining and improving profitability.

我想說的是，這是對他們努力的補充，我們在客戶保留方面做了大量的工作，專注於維持和提高盈利能力的承保文化。

And so like we deploy capital where we think we have the best opportunities for improved risk-adjusted returns and they've done an exceptional job on new business in targeting parts of our business where we think we can have those outsized returns over time.

因此，我們將資本部署在我們認為最有可能提高風險調整後回報的地方，並且他們在瞄準我們業務中我們認為可以隨著時間的推移獲得超額回報的部分新業務方面做得非常出色。

And I think that's how you've seen the portfolio shape.

我想這就是您所看到的投資組合形態。

So Jon, why don't I start with you in terms of international and maybe give us a little bit of insight in terms of the growth.

那麼喬恩，我先從國際角度跟你談談，也許你能在成長方面給我們一些見解。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Peter, and Alex.

謝謝，彼得和亞歷克斯。

Growth through retention and new business was strong in the quarter.

本季度透過保留和新業務實現強勁增長。

Peter and Keith called out a lot of that in their opening remarks, so I won't repeat it now.

Peter 和 Keith 在開場白中多次提到這一點，因此我現在就不再重複。

But I will say, we're working from such a strong base in this commercial portfolio in international.

但我要說的是，我們在國際商業組合中有著如此強大的基礎。

And when we look at where we've been growing -- if you look at the quarter, there's a lot of seasonality across international.

當我們回顧我們的成長點時——如果你看一下季度，你會發現國際上存在著很大的季節性。

For example, in Q4, 50% -- more than 50% of our net premiums come from just two lines.

例如，在第四季度，我們的淨保費收入的 50%——超過 50% 僅來自兩條線路。

We like the global specialty and financial lines, but that's not the full year mix.

我們喜歡全球專業和金融產品線，但這不是全年的組合。

So I think looking at growth, looking at new business, quarter on quarter isn't always the most insightful way.

因此，我認為觀察成長情況、觀察新業務、逐季觀察並不總是最有洞察力的方式。

And Q4 is obviously the end of the year as well.

顯然，第四季也是年底。

So I think it's a good time to reflect on what we've been doing the whole of 2024 and talk about that momentum that we have been building -- if I look at the full year, Keith called it out, 4% growth in the year across international commercial renewal retention in the full year, 89%.

因此，我認為現在是時候反思我們在整個 2024 年所做的事情，並談論我們一直在建立的勢頭了——如果我看全年，Keith 所說的是，全年國際商業續約保留率增長了 4%，達到 89%。

I'm really, really pleased with that on such a good book of business.

我對這本如此優秀的商業書籍感到非常高興。

And new business for the year, more than $2 billion of new business during the year in international Commercial.

今年的國際商業新業務超過 20 億美元。

Again, a great outcome really reflective of the fact that we're still seeing great new business opportunities all around the world, actually.

再次，一個很好的結果確實反映了我們實際上仍然在世界各地看到巨大的新商機。

And I also do want to make clear that new business is a big driver of our growth.

我也想明確指出，新業務是我們成長的一大動力。

We manage the quality, the price adequacy of our new business just as closely as we do our renewal book.

我們對新業務的品質和價格適度的管理與對續約業務的管理一樣嚴格。

Can we trade on a value we offer our recognition as market leader first-class claims, risk management, strong balance sheet, not just price, and that matters to a lot of customers.

我們能否以我們作為市場領導者認可的價值進行交易，一流的索賠、風險管理、強勁的資產負債表，而不僅僅是價格，這對許多客戶來說都很重要。

And if I could, I know you asked about property specifically, if I can just call out two places where we've been working really hard with our distribution partners on being clear on risk appetite, building propositions that customers want, building strong opportunity pipeline.

如果可以的話，我知道您特別問到了房地產問題，我是否可以指出兩個方面，我們一直在與分銷合作夥伴一起努力明確風險偏好，建立客戶想要的主張，建立強大的機會管道。

That's where we've been getting the growth momentum from, and that's what we will see all through this.

這就是我們獲得成長動力的地方，也是我們將在整個過程中看到的。

Yes, there's too many areas to call out across international, but Global Specialty.

是的，國際上需要呼籲的領域太多了，但需要全球專業化。

A number of new business submissions up 24% year-on-year.

新業務提交數量年增24%。

Marine absolutely outstanding 46% increase.

海運絕對出色，增幅達46%。

Our straight rate on the business, we quote more than 25%.

我們對該業務的直接利率報價超過 25%。

And again, Marine Energy, which Peter talked about earlier, 40% strike rates.

再次，彼得之前提到的海洋能源，其命中率為 40%。

So that's more than $700 million of new business in Global Specialty.

這意味著 Global Specialty 的新業務價值超過 7 億美元。

Just a final one to show that momentum.

只需最後一步就能展現這種勢頭。

Our commercial property book another standout.

我們的商業地產書又脫穎而出。

We spent a lot of time fixing and repositioning that portfolio.

我們花了大量時間來修復和重新定位該投資組合。

And we've now seen over the last couple of years, really strong growth and profit growth of 11% in the year.

我們看到，過去幾年的成長非常強勁，年獲利成長率達到 11%。

We're still seeing strong mid-digit rate rises as well as growth and some build high-quality new business.

我們仍然看到強勁的中位數利率上升和成長，並且一些企業建立了高品質的新業務。

The rating environment today, as Peter said earlier, is different to what it was in Q4.

正如彼得之前所說，今天的評級環境與第四季不同。

So we see lots of great opportunity all over, and we'll build on that momentum.

因此，我們看到到處都有很多絕佳的機會，我們會利用這種勢頭繼續前進。

That's great, Jon.

太好了，喬恩。

Don, maybe I just want to have a little bit of a highlight of achievements in North America in terms of growth.

唐，也許我只是想稍微強調一下北美在成長方面的成就。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

I'll break down the North American commercial numbers.

我將分析一下北美的商業數據。

For 2024, and you mentioned this, we grew net premiums by 9%.

正如您所提到的，到 2024 年，我們的淨保費將增加 9%。

And driven by retention and our new business.

並受到保留和新業務的推動。

We had strong retention of 91% in retail and 76% in wholesale.

我們的零售保留率高達 91%，批發保留率高達 76%。

We also delivered impressive new business growth like John in North America, 15% up on a year-over-year basis, and that's on top of 14% new business growth in 2023.

我們也實現了令人矚目的新業務成長，例如北美的 John，其業務年增 15%，而 2023 年的新業務成長率還達到了 14%。

This growth is intentional, it's strategic, it's diversified.

這種成長是有意的、策略性的、多樣化的。

With the great work over the past few years in our portfolio, we came into 2024 with distribution engagement as a top priority for us in all the channels in which we operate, and it's paid off.

憑藉著過去幾年我們在投資組合中取得的出色成績，進入 2024 年，我們將分銷參與作為我們所有營運管道的首要任務，並且取得了回報。

Our new business was strong through all three channels: retail, wholesale and alternative.

我們的新業務在零售、批發和替代三個管道中都表現強勁。

With Lexington, we had another strong year.

有了列剋星敦，我們又度過了強勁的一年。

They represented 48% of our new business.

它們占我們新業務的48%。

Lex property, casualty, Western World, all delivered.

Lex 財產險、意外險、西方世界險均已交付。

And as Peter referenced, Lex another big increase in submissions, 42% increase on a year-over-year basis.

正如彼得所提到的，Lex 的提交量再次大幅增加，與去年同期相比增加了 42%。

And there's a clear opportunity to harness the strong submission activity there to drive growth as we go forward.

這顯然是一個機會，可以利用那裡強大的提交活動來推動我們未來的成長。

The rest of the new business was balanced across the portfolio.

其餘新業務在投資組合中保持平衡。

And finally, Peter, I'll just say this at the end that our growth given our unique assets at AIG, we really are able to underwrite with great discipline within our risk appetites and target opportunities with attractive risk-adjusted returns.

最後，彼得，我最後想說的是，鑑於 AIG 的獨特資產，我們確實能夠在風險偏好範圍內以嚴格的紀律進行承保，並瞄準具有誘人風險調整回報的機會。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

That's great, Don.

太棒了，唐。

Jon, thank you.

喬恩，謝謝你。

I know that answer was they were very thorough, but they're doing the work.

我知道答案是他們非常徹底，但他們正在做這項工作。

And so I thought it would be really helpful to hear from them.

因此我認為聽聽他們的意見將會非常有幫助。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲（Meyer Shields），KBW。

Great, thanks.

太好了，謝謝。

Peter, I was hoping you could walk us through how we should think about the impact of the artificial intelligence deployed in underwriting?

彼得，我希望您能向我們介紹我們應該如何看待人工智慧在承保領域應用的影響？

I know it's simplistic to say how many loss ratio points would have moved.

我知道，說出損失率點數會發生多少變化有些過於簡單了。

But how should we think about it more broadly?

但我們該如何更廣泛地思考這個問題？

Thanks, Meyer, and good morning.

謝謝，邁耶，早安。

For us, I could spend a meaningful amount of time talking about Gen AI, and we fully intend to do that at Investor Day.

對我們來說，我可以花大量時間來談論 Gen AI，我們完全打算在投資者日這樣做。

Our focus has always been on driving growth certainly, there's opportunities in contact centers and call centers and operational capabilities that through large language models, robotics that we will gain efficiencies.

我們的重點一直是推動成長，聯絡中心、呼叫中心和營運能力方面存在機遇，透過大型語言模型和機器人技術，我們將獲得效率。

But for us, it's all about ingestion of data, getting more qualified data to the underwriters in a fraction of the time.

但對我們來說，這一切都是為了獲取數據，在極短的時間內向承保人提供更合格的數據。

And in order to do that, you need to be very disciplined sort of end-to-end.

為了做到這一點，你需要從頭到尾都極為嚴謹。

So how we ingest data from brokers and agents, how we define what data we want in the underwriting criteria when it gets to the underwriter, how do we load that into models and how do we get more data from credible sources that may supplement the underwriters' decision-making in order to continue to improve the portfolio.

那麼我們如何從經紀人和代理商那裡獲取數據，如何定義承保人收到承保標準時需要哪些數據，如何將這些數據加載到模型中，以及如何從可靠來源獲取更多數據以補充承保人的決策，從而繼續改善投資組合。

If I use Lexington as an example, -- in 2017 and '18, we received 40,000 submissions.

如果我以列剋星敦為例，2017 年和 2018 年，我們收到了 40,000 份提交。

This year, it's over 400,000.

今年已超過40萬。

So it's more complex today than just building out algorithms to get to different industry groups or different classes of business.

因此，今天它比僅僅建立演算法來適應不同的行業群體或不同的業務類別要複雜得多。

We want to get more to the underwriters real time.

我們希望即時向承銷商提供更多資訊。

And so we've been doing this for the better part of 18 months.

我們已經這樣做了 18 個月了。

I said we built out a really strong Agentic ecosystem with, again, data ingestion with Palantir, building out large language models with Anthropic and using other reliable third parties to help us accelerate the modeling.

我說我們建立了一個真正強大的 Agentic 生態系統，再次使用 Palantir 進行資料擷取，使用 Anthropic 建立大型語言模型，並使用其他可靠的第三方來幫助我們加速建模。

And so I think it's going to help us propel top line growth by getting more data, getting richer data sets, giving the underwriters more capabilities to underwrite and having it done in a fraction amount of time and doing it at scale.

因此，我認為這將幫助我們透過獲取更多數據、獲得更豐富的數據集、為承保人提供更多承保能力並在很短的時間內完成並大規模地進行承保來推動營收成長。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

The second question is on the time line for getting the high net worth personal lines business to growth underwriting profitability.

第二個問題是關於高淨值個人險業務實現承保獲利成長的時間表。

I don't know if there's anything you can share on that.

我不知道您是否可以分享一些這方面的資訊。

Yes, absolutely, Meyer.

是的，當然，邁耶。

Look, I think we've been on that journey for a couple of years, and everybody has been patient with the story.

看，我想我們已經踏上這段旅程好幾年了，每個人都對這個故事很有耐心。

We continue to improve the combined ratio.

我們持續改善綜合成本率。

We continue to improve the loss ratio.

我們不斷改善損失率。

If you look at global personal, the biggest contributor in terms of that improvement, it was primarily all the private client service or a high net worth business.

如果你看看全球個人，這種改善的最大貢獻者主要是所有私人客戶服務或高淨值業務。

There was a significant improvement in the loss ratio, and we expect that to continue.

損失率有了明顯改善，我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。

We have a balanced growth strategy with non-admitted as well as admitted and believe that as we see more submission activity, which we are not admitted that we're able to deploy our capital with more flexibility to be responsive to client needs.

我們有一個平衡的成長策略，包括非承認和承認，並相信隨著我們看到更多的提交活動，我們不承認，我們能夠更靈活地部署我們的資本，以滿足客戶的需求。

So I'm thinking about structure pricing, the amount of limit that we can put out and it's not only in peak zones, it's a nonpeak zones.

因此，我正在考慮結構定價，我們可以設定的限制量，它不僅限於高峰區域，還包括非高峰區域。

And so we expect to see that continue to accelerate.

因此我們預期這一趨勢將持續加速。

We got to scale this year.

我們今年必須擴大規模。

And so we've renegotiated ceding commissions with PCS, and so you'll see a meaningful improvement there, which should translate into overall expense ratio improvement and combined ratio improvement.

因此，我們與 PCS 重新協商了佣金轉讓事宜，您將看到這方面的顯著改善，這將轉化為整體費用率和綜合費率的改善。

And last, I mentioned is that we have tremendous partners that have joined us based on how we've repositioned the portfolio and our encouraging growth.

最後，我提到的是，我們擁有大量合作夥伴，他們因為我們重新定位的產品組合和令人鼓舞的成長而加入我們。

And so we have a 30% quota share with six participants all have very strong expertise in the high net worth space that are backing us for more growth.

因此，我們的配額份額為 30%，其中六位參與者都在高淨值領域擁有非常豐富的專業知識，為我們的進一步成長提供支援。

So I think we have it all moving in the right direction.

所以我認為我們的一切都在朝著正確的方向發展。

Attritional loss ratios cat support from great partners and improvement in expense ratio, and you'll see that contribute in 2025 to helping overall global personal improve.

損耗率、優秀合作夥伴的支持以及費用率的改善，您將看到，這些將在 2025 年幫助全球個人整體改善。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Jon Newsome, Piper Sandler.

喬恩‧紐瑟姆，派珀‧桑德勒。

Good morning, congrats on the quarter.

早安，恭喜本季取得佳績。

Two question.

兩個問題。

One is are we at a point where there are aspirational areas of business that AIG is not in that you would be looking for either an organic or undergrad basis?

一是我們是否正處於這樣一個階段：存在一些 AIG 尚未涉足的理想業務領域，而您會尋求有機增長或本科生基礎？

And I guess sort of relatedly, on the other side of that question is where are we from a divesting of noncore businesses perspective?

我想，與此相關的是，這個問題的另一個面向是從剝離非核心業務的角度來看我們處於什麼位置？

Are we pretty much done at this point?

我們現在就差不多完成了嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I'll start with the second one first.

我先從第二個開始。

I think we are largely done I mean, I don't ever say never or always.

我想我們基本上已經完成了，我的意思是，我從來不會說從不或總是。

But I think we now have the portfolio in a place where we'd like it, certainly on the commercial side and now having one segment for global personal.

但我認為，現在我們的投資組合已經達到了我們想要的水平，當然是在商業方面，而且現在有一個針對全球個人的部門。

We know we have work to do, but really like the mix of the portfolio, its global balance and think that we can grow it.

我們知道我們還有很多工作要做，但我們真的很喜歡這個投資組合的結構、它的全球平衡，並認為我們可以發展它。

In terms of M&A, we're going to remain very disciplined I always use the word when I get the question on the calls or I'm in front of you.

在併購方面，我們將保持高度紀律，當我在電話中接到問題或在你們面前時，我總是使用這個詞。

It's around being -- it has to be compelling, which just means that it's either going to be a geography that's complementary that actually adds value to AIG and our clients.

它必須具有吸引力，也就是說，它要么是一個互補的地理位置，要么實際上能為 AIG 和我們的客戶增加價值。

Products that we may not be in that would like and think that it's going to be accretive to ROE and how we grow our business.

我們可能不會涉足那些我們喜歡的產品，並認為它將會增加 ROE 以及我們如何發展我們的業務。

There are businesses that we have that have scale, but additional scale could be quite compelling.

我們的一些業務已經具備規模，但進一步擴大規模可能更具吸引力。

And so we are looking at that businesses that may do that and accelerate.

因此，我們正在研究可能做到這一點並加速發展的企業。

And of course, then there's complementary businesses that we may not be in that we think could be very additive to the platform.

當然，還有一些我們可能沒有涉足的互補業務，我們認為這些業務可能會為平台帶來很大的附加價值。

So we have a very disciplined approach.

因此，我們採取了非常嚴謹的方法。

We always are looking around the world to see if there's things that are additive.

我們總是環顧世界各地，尋找是否有可以添加的東西。

But I do want to say I think we're at the size and scale where we don't need to add anything.

但我確實想說，我認為我們的規模已經到了不需要添加任何東西的程度。

We are showing, and I think Jon and Don provided tremendous insight as to why we think we can grow the business organically.

我們正在展示，而且我認為喬恩和唐提供了關於為什麼我們認為可以有機地發展業務的深刻見解。

We have a really strong capital base, which we can grow into and believe that there's a path there.

我們擁有非常強大的資本基礎，我們可以不斷發展，並且相信我們有成功的途徑。

So I don't think it's an either or.

所以我不認為這是一個非此即彼的問題。

I think we have now set the company up with enormous strategic and financial flexibility.

我認為我們現在已經為公司賦予了巨大的策略和財務靈活性。

We'll remain very disciplined as we look at inorganic, but we're very excited about the organic opportunities that are in front of us.

在審視無機產品時，我們將保持非常嚴謹的態度，但我們對眼前的有機產品機會感到非常興奮。

Great.

偉大的。

Maybe a second question.

也許還有第二個問題。

Do you have any thoughts on the regulatory environment?

您對監管環境有什麼想法嗎？

Clearly, lots of -- as my grandmother would say, interesting things happening in California from a regulatory perspective.

顯然，正如我祖母所說，從監管角度來看，加州發生了很多有趣的事情。

But broader, do you think there's some changes here that are coming?

但從更廣泛的角度來看，您認為這裡會發生一些變化嗎？

Or do you think it's pretty status quo?

還是您認為這是相當現狀？

Insurance is complicated because we're regulated state by state.

保險很複雜，因為我們受到各州的監管。

And that makes every state a little bit different, right?

這使得每個州都有點不同，對嗎？

And I think the ones that get the attention are going to be ones that have peak zone exposure, like we're seeing within California.

我認為最受關注的將是那些具有峰值區域曝光的區域，就像我們在加利福尼亞州看到的那樣。

And California is particularly complicated because I related almost to Japan.

而加州尤其複雜，因為我幾乎與日本有聯繫。

It's a geography that has two major perils that drive catastrophe results.

這一地區存在兩大危險，可能導致災難。

And so I was in Japan is typhoon quake, California's quake and now wildfire.

我當時在日本經歷了颱風地震，加州經歷了地震，現在又經歷了野火。

And -- but there's regulators.

但有監管機構。

We work very closely with them to try and be helpful and constructive on the changes that have happened in the catastrophe climate, which is looking at modeling, looking at loss cost, looking at cost of goods sold and looking at ways in which we can be more responsive to client needs.

我們與他們密切合作，試圖對災難環境中發生的變化提供幫助和建設性的意見，即研究建模、研究損失成本、研究銷售成本以及研究如何更好地回應客戶需求。

And I think that in California, we just saw that the modeling is flawed.

我認為在加利福尼亞州，我們看到的模型有缺陷。

It doesn't necessarily always take into account tail events.

它並不一定總是將尾部事件考慮在內。

There's not a lot of model losses north of $40 billion.

在 400 億美元以上，模型損失並不多。

And so therefore, it becomes very complicated.

因此，事情變得非常複雜。

And I don't mean this in California, but we're now seeing it, which is some of these state set up sort of vehicles that become a market of last resort sometimes become a market of only resort and then they end up taking on a lot of aggregate.

我並不是說加州出現這種情況，但我們現在看到的是，一些州設立的工具成為最後的手段，有時會成為唯一的手段，最終它們承擔了大量的總量。

So I think we just need a reset in certain spots.

所以我認為我們只需要在某些地方進行重新設定。

And I think like insurance companies, that have technical capabilities working very closely with regulators.

我認為保險公司具有與監管機構密切合作的技術能力。

I hope that we're going to position the businesses where we will have more flexibility in the future.

我希望我們能夠將業務定位在將來擁有更多靈活性的地方。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Michael Zaremski, BMO.

邁克爾·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

Great.

偉大的。

Follow-up on the expense ratio.

跟進費用率。

I heard the comments about ceding commissions improving, so that should be a positive going forward.

我聽到了有關轉讓佣金不斷改善的評論，因此這應該是一個積極的進展。

The expense ratio has been running a bit higher than expected for a while now.

一段時間以來，費用率一直略高於預期。

I mean, obviously, the loss ratio has been excellent.

我的意思是，顯然損失率一直很低。

So that's the main focus.

所以這就是主要焦點。

But just curious if you're willing to give any specific -- more specific guidance on kind of what type of expense ratio level or acquisition expense ratio level, we should be thinking about on a go-forward basis?

但我只是好奇，您是否願意給出任何具體的 - 關於我們應該在未來考慮什麼類型的費用率水平或收購費用率水平的更具體的指導？

Michael, are we talking about PCS and high net worth or just general insurance.

邁克爾，我們談論的是 PCS 和高淨值還是只是一般保險。

Sorry, I was talking about the whole company, General Insurance.

抱歉，我說的是整個公司，也就是普通保險。

Yes.

是的。

So let me unpack -- I mean, again, I know with AIG, it's like with the divestitures and a lot of the moving pieces from other operations into general insurance, it's complicated.

所以讓我來解釋一下——我的意思是，我再說一次，我知道 AIG 的情況就像資產剝離和大量從其他業務轉移到一般保險的業務一樣，這很複雜。

But I'm actually really pleased with what we've done on the expenses.

但實際上我對我們在費用方面所做的努力感到非常滿意。

I think we've remained incredibly disciplined.

我認為我們一直保持著極為嚴謹的紀律。

We focused on a lean parent, which just meant that there's simplicity.

我們關注的是精益的父母，這意味著簡單。

There's not a lot of expenses sitting in other operations and they're going to be more in the business.

我們並沒有花太多的錢用於其他業務，而是把更多的錢花在了業務上。

So if I actually take you through what happened, and if you look at our financial supplement, you'll see $2.9 billion or there about [$2.952 billion] as sort of the expenses.

所以，如果我實際上向您介紹所發生的事情，並且如果您查看我們的財務補充，您會看到 29 億美元或大約 ​​[29.52 億美元] 的費用。

But if you get underneath that, look, AIG Next, the business was very proactive in getting expenses out.

但如果你深入了解一下，你會看到，AIG Next 的業務在消除費用方面非常積極主動。

And so we would have gotten around $125 million to $140 million out through AIG next.

因此我們接下來將透過 AIG 獲得約 1.25 億至 1.4 億美元。

But we've added in from other operations and other technology that would have set in other operations, almost $200 million.

但是，我們也從其他業務和其他技術中加入了近 2 億美元的投資。

And so the business has absorbed a lot of expenses as we reposition the company to have this lean parent very transparent, not with a lot of expenses and the business is absorbing it as we go.

因此，隨著我們重新定位公司，讓母公司變得精簡、透明，沒有太多的開支，業務部門吸收了很多費用，而且我們在發展過程中也在吸收這些費用。

And so not only am I proud that they've been able to do that, and we haven't had a blip -- we also believe that there's opportunities to get more expenses out and the ratios to improve as we get through the rest of 2025.

因此，我不僅為他們能夠做到這一點而感到自豪，而且我們沒有遇到任何失誤——我們還相信，在 2025 年剩餘的時間裡，我們還有機會削減更多開支並改善比率。

Do you have a follow-up?

你有後續行動嗎？

Quick follow-up.

快速跟進。

Just -- I know you made some comments on the casualty marketplace.

只是——我知道您對傷亡市場發表了一些評論。

I'm not fast enough to update all the pricing data you gave us, which is always helpful.

我無法足夠快地更新您提供給我們的所有定價數據，但這始終是有幫助的。

But I'm curious, are you experiencing any acceleration in casualty pricing, either excess or retail?

但我很好奇，您是否經歷了傷亡保險定價的加速，無論是超額保險還是零售保險？

And do you still feel that I feel like a couple of quarters ago, you mentioned this might be an area you're willing to play a bit of offense in.

您是否仍然覺得幾個季度前您曾提到這可能是您願意採取進攻行動的領域？

Yes.

是的。

So it's a great question.

這是一個很好的問題。

And again, when we look at rate across North America, international, it's an index.

再說一次，當我們觀察北美和國際的利率時，它是一個指數。

And so you don't always get a line of sight.

因此你不能總是看到視線。

But we do see real opportunities in casualty.

但我們確實在傷亡事故中看到了真正的機會。

We're very cautious -- but the rate environment is actually quite strong.

我們非常謹慎——但利率環境實際上相當強勁。

I mean in Lexington Casualty, you'll start there.

我的意思是，在萊剋星頓傷亡事故中，你將從那裡開始。

We had 14% rate in 2024.

2024 年的利率為 14%。

In retail excess casualty, we had 15% -- that's the fifth year in a row of double-digit rate increases in retail excess casualty -- it's above loss cost trend.

在零售超額傷亡險方面，我們的成長率為 15% - 這是零售超額傷亡險費率連續第五年實現兩位數成長 - 高於損失成本趨勢。

So we feel like we're building margin, really strong retention.

因此，我們感覺我們正在建立利潤率，以實現真正強大的保留率。

We've been able to reposition the portfolio as we've liked.

我們已經能夠按照我們的意願重新定位投資組合。

We have an exceptional particularly in the US leadership with Barbara luck.

我們擁有一位傑出的領導人，特別是美國領導人芭芭拉·勒克。

I mean we have the best underwriting team in the industry, and that's being demonstrated because clients are asking us to be on their business, help structure it, help the terms and conditions.

我的意思是，我們擁有業內最好的核保團隊，這一點已經得到證明，因為客戶要求我們參與他們的業務，幫助建立業務，幫助制定條款和條件。

So others will be active participants in the market.

因此其他人將成為市場的積極參與者。

And so we're leading.

因此我們處於領先地位。

We're underwriting really well.

我們的承保情況非常好。

We've repositioned the portfolio.

我們重新定位了投資組合。

We've got great reinsurance support for severity.

我們針對嚴重程度獲得了強大的再保險支援。

And we're getting rate above loss cost.

我們獲得的利率高於損失成本。

So I want to be very cautious and careful, but I also don't want to miss the opportunity to be an industry leader.

因此我要非常謹慎和小心，但我也不想錯過成為產業領袖的機會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

I want to thank everybody for questions and your active participation today.

我要感謝大家今天的提問和積極參與。

In closing, I want to thank our AIG colleagues around the world for their continued commitment teamwork and the significant contributions.

最後，我要感謝世界各地的 AIG 同事的持續承諾、團隊合作和重大貢獻。

I mean, we accomplish a lot every year, and we try to capture it for you today, and we really appreciate joining us today.

我的意思是，我們每年都會取得很多成就，我們試著今天為您記錄這些成就，我們非常感謝今天加入我們。

And we look forward to sharing a lot more detail on March 31, during AIG's Investor Day.

我們期待在 3 月 31 日 AIG 投資者日期間分享更多詳細資訊。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect.

這確實結束了程序，您現在可以斷開連接了。

Everyone, have a great day.

祝大家有個愉快的一天。