American International Group Inc (AIG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to AIG's Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 AIG 2024 年第三季財務業績電話會議。

This conference is being recorded.

本次會議正在錄製中。

Now at this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Quentin McMillan.

現在這個時候，我想把會議交給昆汀·麥克米倫。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thanks very much, Michelle, and good morning.

非常感謝，米歇爾，早安。

Today's remarks may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties.

今天的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性。

These statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and are based on management's current expectations.

這些陳述不是對未來績效或事件的保證，而是基於管理階層目前的預期。

AIG's filings with the SEC provide details on important factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially.

AIG 向 SEC 提交的文件提供了可能導致實際結果或事件出現重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。

Except as required by applicable securities laws, AIG is under no obligation to update any forward-looking statements if circumstances or management's estimates or opinions should change.

除適用的證券法要求外，如果情況或管理層的估計或意見發生變化，AIG 沒有義務更新任何前瞻性聲明。

Today's remarks may also refer to non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的言論也可能涉及非公認會計準則財務指標。

A reconciliation of such measures to the most comparable GAAP figures is included in our earnings release, financial supplement and earnings presentation, all of which are available on our website at aig.com. Additionally, note that following the deconsolidation of Corebridge Financial on June 9, 2024, the historical results of Corebridge for all periods presented are reflected in AIG's condensed consolidated financial statements as discontinued operations in accordance with US GAAP.

這些指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 數據的調整包含在我們的收益發布、財務補充和收益演示中，所有這些都可以在我們的網站 aig.com 上找到。此外，請注意，在 2024 年 6 月 9 日取消合併 Corebridge Financial 後，根據美國公認會計準則，Corebridge 在所有期間的歷史業績均作為已終止經營業務反映在 AIG 的簡明合併財務報表中。

Finally, today's remarks related to general insurance results, including key metrics such as net premiums written, underwriting income, margin and net investment income are presented on a comparable basis, which reflects year-over-year comparisons on a constant dollar basis as applicable and adjusted for the sale of Crop Risk Services and the sale of Validus Re.

最後，今天有關一般保險績效的評論，包括淨保費、承保收入、保證金和淨投資收入等關鍵指標，都是在可比基礎上提出的，反映了在適用的情況下以固定美元為基礎的同比比較，以及針對作物風險服務的銷售和 Validus Re 的銷售進行了調整。

We believe this presentation provides the most useful view of general insurance results and the go-forward business in light of the substantial changes to the portfolio since 2023.

我們認為，鑑於 2023 年以來投資組合發生的重大變化，本簡報提供了關於一般保險業績和未來業務的最有用的觀點。

Please refer to pages 26 through 28 of the earnings presentation for reconciliations of such metrics reported on a comparable basis.

請參閱收益報告第 26 頁至第 28 頁，以了解在可比較基礎上報告的此類指標的調節情況。

With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Peter Zaffino.

現在，我想將電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Peter Zaffino。

Good morning and thank you for joining us today to review our third quarter 2024 financial results.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們回顧我們 2024 年第三季的財務表現。

Following my remarks, Sabra will provide more detail on the quarter, then our North America and international leaders, Don Bailey and Jon Hancock, will join us for the Q&A portion of the call.

在我發表講話後，薩布拉將提供有關本季度的更多詳細信息，然後我們的北美和國際領導人唐·貝利(Don Bailey) 和喬恩·漢考克(Jon Hancock) 將與我們一起參加電話會議的問答部分。

Before we begin, I want to acknowledge the devastating impact of recent weather events had on our communities, which underscores the difficult reality of changing weather patterns and the frequency and severity of these events.

在我們開始之前，我想承認最近的天氣事件對我們的社區造成了毀滅性影響，這突顯了天氣模式變化以及這些事件的頻率和嚴重性的艱難現實。

At AIG, our claims teams have been working hard to ensure that we respond quickly.

在 AIG，我們的理賠團隊一直在努力確保我們快速回應。

I'm grateful to our colleagues for their commitment to our clients and distribution partners.

我感謝我們的同事對我們的客戶和分銷合作夥伴的承諾。

This is our purpose, and it's when our company is needed most.

這是我們的宗旨，也是我們公司最需要的時候。

Now let me move to the highlights of our outstanding third quarter performance.

現在讓我談談我們第三季出色業績的亮點。

We continue to deliver exceptional underwriting results, maintain rigorous expense discipline, execute on our capital management plan, and make excellent progress on our strategic priorities.

我們繼續提供卓越的核保業績，保持嚴格的費用紀律，執行我們的資本管理計劃，並在我們的策略重點方面取得出色進展。

Adjusted after-tax income was $798 million or $1.23 per diluted share, representing a 31% increase in earnings per share year-over-year, driven by strong core earnings growth and disciplined execution of our capital management strategy.

調整後稅後收入為 7.98 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.23 美元，每股收益同比增長 31%，這得益於強勁的核心收益增長和資本管理策略的嚴格執行。

Underwriting income for the quarter was $437 million, which included total catastrophe-related charges of $417 million.

該季度的承保收入為 4.37 億美元，其中災難相關費用總額為 4.17 億美元。

The calendar year combined ratio was 92.6%.

歷年綜合成本率為92.6%。

Consolidated net investment income on an adjusted pretax income basis was $897 million, a 19% increase year-over-year.

調整後稅前收入基礎上的綜合淨投資收益為 8.97 億美元，年增 19%。

Other operations adjusted pretax loss was $143 million, an improvement of $135 million or nearly 50% year-over-year.

其他業務調整後的稅前虧損為 1.43 億美元，年減 1.35 億美元，增加近 50%。

Core operating ROE was 9.2% with core operating equity of $34.5 billion as of September 30, 2024.

截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，核心營運股本回報率為 9.2%，核心營運權益為 345 億美元。

In the third quarter, we returned approximately $1.8 billion to shareholders through $1.5 billion of stock repurchases and $254 million of dividends.

第三季度，我們透過 15 億美元的股票回購和 2.54 億美元的股息向股東返還了約 18 億美元。

In addition, we repurchased $520 million of common stock in October.

此外，我們也在 10 月回購了 5.2 億美元的普通股。

We ended the third quarter with a debt to total capital ratio of 17.9% including AOCI, and parent liquidity of $4.2 billion.

第三季末，我們的債務與總資本（包括 AOCI）的比率為 17.9%，母公司流動性為 42 億美元。

During my remarks this morning, I will provide information on the following five topics: First, I will review the financial results for our general insurance business.

在今天早上的演講中，我將提供以下五個主題的資訊：第一，我將回顧我們普通保險業務的財務表現。

Second, I will provide observations on the catastrophe market and specifically AIG year-to-date.

其次，我將提供對巨災市場的觀察，特別是今年迄今為止對 AIG 的觀察。

Third, I will update you on our progress with AIG Next and its impact on other operations.

第三，我將向您介紹 AIG Next 的最新進展及其對其他業務的影響。

Fourth, I will provide an update on our significant progress in AI and related objectives moving forward.

第四，我將介紹我們在人工智慧和相關目標方面取得的重大進展的最新情況。

And finally, I'll give more detail on our capital management plan and the path to achieving 10% core ROE.

最後，我將詳細介紹我們的資本管理計劃以及實現 10% 核心股本回報率的途徑。

Turning to general insurance.

轉向一般保險。

We had another excellent quarter with strong profitability and growth across our businesses.

我們又度過了一個出色的季度，我們的業務獲利能力強勁，成長強勁。

Gross premiums written for the quarter were $8.6 billion, an increase of 3% from the prior year.

該季度的毛保費為 86 億美元，比上年增長 3%。

Net premiums written for the quarter were $6.4 billion, a 6% increase.

該季度淨承保保費為 64 億美元，成長 6%。

Net premiums earned for the quarter were $5.9 billion, a 7% increase, with $4.2 billion coming from global commercial.

本季淨保費收入為 59 億美元，成長 7%，其中 42 億美元來自全球商業。

The accident year combined ratio as adjusted was 88.3%.

調整後的事故年綜合率為88.3%。

We had favorable prior year reserve development of $153 million, a benefit of 2.6 points of loss ratio.

我們上一年的儲備金開發量為 1.53 億美元，損失率提高了 2.6 個百分點。

Sabra will provide more detail in her prepared remarks.

薩布拉將在她準備好的演講中提供更多細節。

In global commercial, we had 7% net premiums written growth over the prior year quarter, driven by over $1.1 billion of new business which grew 9% year-over-year.

在全球商業領域，受超過 11 億美元的新業務（年增 9%）的推動，我們的淨保費較去年同期成長了 7%。

Retention remained at 88%, which is an outstanding outcome.

保留率保持在 88%，這是一個出色的結果。

The accident year combined ratio as adjusted was 84.2% and the calendar year combined ratio was 89.9%.

調整後的事故年綜合成本率為84.2%，歷年綜合成本率為89.9%。

The GOE ratio was flat year-over-year while absorbing over $50 million of expenses that shifted from other operations.

GOE 比率與去年同期持平，同時吸收了超過 5000 萬美元從其他業務轉移的費用。

In global personal, we had 3% net premiums written growth over the prior year quarter, led by 9% new business growth across our global portfolio.

在全球個人業務方面，我們的淨保費較去年同期成長了 3%，其中全球投資組合的新業務成長了 9%。

The accident year combined ratio as adjusted was 97.8% and the calendar year combined ratio was 98.8%, both were improvements year-over-year, and we expect this segment to continue to improve its financial performance in 2025.

調整後的事故年綜合成本率為97.8%，歷年綜合成本率為98.8%，均較去年同期有所改善，我們預期該板塊2025年的財務表現將持續改善。

North America commercial grew net premiums written by 11% year-over-year.

北美商業淨承保保費年增 11%。

We had a closeout transaction in the quarter in our casualty portfolio that benefited overall growth but negatively impacted the accident year loss ratio.

本季我們的傷亡投資組合進行了一項清倉交易，這有利於整體成長，但對事故年損失率產生了負面影響。

Absent this transaction, our net premiums written growth would have been in the high single digits.

如果沒有這項交易，我們的淨保費成長將維持在高個位數。

The businesses that drove growth were casualty at 9%, excluding the closeout transaction, 8% in Glatfelter and 7% in Lexington.

推動成長的業務損失率為 9%（不包括清倉交易），格拉特費爾特為 8%，列剋星敦為 7%。

Retention in North America was 90% in the admitted lines and 78% in Lexington, which is an exceptional outcome for an excess and surplus lines business.

北美地區的准入線路的保留率為 90%，列剋星敦的保留率為 78%，這對於超額和盈餘線路業務來說是一個特殊的結果。

New business growth in the quarter was simply outstanding.

本季的新業務成長非常出色。

On a year-over-year basis, we had 22% growth in new business, led by Lexington with 24% growth.

與去年同期相比，我們的新業務成長了 22%，其中列剋星敦成長了 24%。

And the story for Lexington just keeps ongoing.

列剋星敦的故事還在繼續。

We had over 95,000 new business submissions in the quarter, up 35% year-over-year.

本季我們收到了超過 95,000 份新業務申請，年增 35%。

Casualty submissions were up over 70%; western World was up over 30%; and property was up over 20%.

傷亡報告增加了 70% 以上；西部世界上漲超過30%；房地產上漲超過20%。

Also, our financial lines new business was up double digits.

此外，我們的金融業務新業務成長了兩位數。

This was due almost exclusively to a rebound in M&A following a slow new business quarter for financial lines in the same period last year.

這幾乎完全是由於去年同期金融業務新業務季度放緩後併購的反彈。

North America commercial accident year combined ratio as adjusted was 85.1%, and the calendar year combined ratio was 95.5%, an exceptional outcome given the significant cat activity in the quarter.

調整後的北美商業事故年綜合成本率為 85.1%，歷年綜合成本率為 95.5%，考慮到本季的巨災活動，這是一個特殊的結果。

The accident year loss ratio was 61.8% for the quarter, which was an increase of 250 basis points year-over-year and reflected two main variables.

本季事故年損失率為61.8%，年增250個基點，反映了兩個主要變數。

First, the closeout transaction in AIGRM that I mentioned earlier.

首先是我之前提到的 AIGRM 中的平倉交易。

While profitable and incrementally beneficial to the overall combined ratio, it carried a higher loss ratio, which resulted in a 70 basis point headwind.

雖然獲利並逐漸有利於整體綜合成本率，但其損失率較高，導致 70 個基點的逆風。

And second, the actual versus expected in the prior year quarter comparison was very favorable as a result of our admitted and wholesale property portfolios experiencing close to 30% rate increases last year that earned in over 2023 and the early part of 2024, creating a 180 basis point headwind.

其次，去年季度的實際與預期相比非常有利，因為我們的承認和批發房地產投資組合去年經歷了近 30% 的利率增長，並在 2023 年和 2024 年初實現盈利，創造了 180基點逆風。

The combined ratio also benefited from a lower expense ratio, reflecting improvement in the GOE ratio.

綜合成本率也受益於較低的費用比率，反映出 GOE 比率的改善。

In international commercial, net premiums written grew 3% year-over-year.

在國際商業領域，淨承保保費較去年同期成長 3%。

Commercial property grew 6%, add to global specialty where international specialty grew 10%, driven by energy.

商業房地產成長了 6%，全球專業房地產在能源的推動下成長了 10%。

Our Talbot business at Lloyd's also grew 6%, driven by 18% growth in the specialty lines, specifically political risk, energy and marine.

勞埃德 (Lloyd's) 的 Talbot 業務也成長了 6%，這主要得益於專業業務（特別是政治風險、能源和海事業務）成長 18%。

International retention remained strong at 89%, which was very balanced across the portfolio, led by energy and property, both at 92%, and casualty at 91%.

國際保留率仍保持在 89% 的強勁水平，整個投資組合非常均衡，其中以能源和房地產為首，均為 92%，傷亡事故為 91%。

International also had very good new business of over $500 million, led by global specialty with 25% new business growth in marine and 40% new business growth in Talbot year-over-year.

國際業務也擁有超過 5 億美元的出色新業務，其中以全球專業業務為首，其中船舶領域的新業務同比增長 25%，塔爾伯特的新業務同比增長 40%。

The international commercial accident year combined ratio as adjusted was 83.4%, another excellent result.

調整後的國際商業事故年綜合比率為83.4%，再創佳績。

The calendar year combined ratio was 84.3%.

歷年綜合成本率為84.3%。

Given that the third quarter is usually the most active quarter for natural catastrophes, I want to provide some thoughts on the activity year-to-date and how the evolution of our underwriting and reinsurance strategy has significantly enhanced AIG's performance over time even in light of this historical increased activity.

鑑於第三季度通常是自然災害最活躍的季度，我想就今年迄今為止的活動提供一些想法，以及我們的承保和再保險策略的演變如何隨著時間的推移顯著提高 AIG 的業績，即使考慮到這一歷史性的活動增加。

For the first nine months of the year, preliminary industry estimates of insured losses from natural catastrophes are in excess of $100 billion, which appears to be the new normal.

今年前 9 個月，產業初步估計自然災害造成的保險損失超過 1,000 億美元，似乎已成為新常態。

When considering the impact of Hurricane Milton on the industry, and the remainder of the fourth quarter, Aon recently published a report that estimated that the 2024 total insured losses for the industry from natural catastrophes will likely exceed $125 billion.

考慮到颶風米爾頓對該行業以及第四季度剩餘時間的影響，怡安最近發布了一份報告，估計 2024 年該行業因自然災害造成的保險損失總額可能會超過 1250 億美元。

When analyzing large single catastrophes, the complexity of determining the initial and ultimate loss is complicated.

在分析大型單一災難時，確定初始和最終損失的複雜性很複雜。

Modeling firms produce industry loss estimates post event and there are many factors that go into estimating the ultimate losses.

建模公司在事件發生後進行行業損失估計，並且有許多因素會影響最終損失的估計。

It is important to note that no two catastrophes are the same.

值得注意的是，沒有兩次災難是相同的。

Property Claims Services, or PCS, is a widely-used source for independent property loss estimates in the United States.

財產索賠服務（PCS）是美國廣泛使用的獨立財產損失估算來源。

The loss figures that they provide are derived from claims activity and other factors at the time of loss rather than a judgment of the ultimate size of the loss.

他們提供的損失數據是根據損失時的索賠活動和其他因素得出的，而不是對損失最終規模的判斷。

As a result, the actual scale of the total loss is often subject to misinterpretation.

因此，總損失的實際規模常常受到誤解。

Historically, if you look back at major events, including Katrina, Superstorm Sandy and Ian, the final report of PCS figures were substantially higher than their original estimates, illustrating the uncertainty around determining ultimates for best estimates for catastrophe losses.

從歷史上看，如果你回顧一下重大事件，包括卡特里娜颶風、超級風暴桑迪和伊恩，PCS 數據的最終報告大大高於最初的估計，這說明確定災難損失最佳估計的最終結果存在不確定性。

At AIG, we've mitigated the impact that weather events have had on our business as reflected in our improved financial performance even as the world has seen more cat activity.

在 AIG，我們已經減輕了天氣事件對我們業務的影響，這反映在我們財務表現的改善上，儘管世界上的貓活動越來越多。

Over the last five years, our losses have dropped dramatically, both in nominal terms and also in terms of the overall market share of the losses.

在過去五年中，我們的損失無論是名義上還是損失的整體市佔率都大幅下降。

This is a testament to the work we've undertaken to change and evolve our underwriting strategy, reduce volatility and increase the quality of our earnings.

這證明了我們為改變和發展我們的承保策略、減少波動性和提高獲利品質所做的工作。

If we use 2012 as a reference point, which was a year with meaningful activity, the total insured catastrophe losses on a nominal basis were $65 billion for the industry.

如果我們以 2012 年為參考點，這一年的活動非常有意義，那麼該行業名義上的巨災保險損失總額為 650 億美元。

That is roughly equivalent to the 20-year average and serves as a useful benchmark.

這大致相當於 20 年的平均水平，可以作為一個有用的基準。

Since 2012, expectations for annual industry catastrophe losses have grown substantially.

自2012年以來，對年度產業巨災損失的預期大幅增加。

The average annual industry loss from natural catastrophes from 2017 through 2023 has increased approximately 90% when compared to the average from 2000 to 2016.

2017年至2023年，自然災害造成的產業年均損失比2000年至2016年的平均值增加了約90%。

Since 2017, seven of the last eight years, including the 2024 forecast, have had over $100 billion of annual insured losses.

自 2017 年以來，過去八年中有七年（包括 2024 年的預測）每年的保險損失超過 1,000 億美元。

It's important to note, against this heightened level of natural catastrophe losses, based on published reports, we estimate approximately 50% of the insured natural catastrophe losses were absorbed in the reinsurance market from 2017 to 2022.

值得注意的是，根據已發表的報告，相對於自然災害損失的不斷上升，我們估計 2017 年至 2022 年，約 50% 的自然災害損失被再保險市場吸收。

However, following the major market reset in 2023, approximately 90% of the losses were retained by the primary insurance companies.

然而，隨著2023年市場的重大調整，約90%的損失被主要保險公司保留。

And this is a significant change.

這是一個重大變化。

As I have discussed several times, the work we've done to change AIG's approach to underwriting and reinsurance has resulted in dramatic improvements in our financial performance and balance sheet.

正如我多次討論的那樣，我們為改變 AIG 的承保和再保險方法所做的工作極大地改善了我們的財務表現和資產負債表。

Let me give you some specific points to contextualize the magnitude of this impact.

讓我給你一些具體的觀點來說明這種影響的嚴重程度。

Based on AIG's legacy underwriting strategy and reinsurance choices in 2012, AIG posted an initial pretax loss of $2 billion from Superstorm Sandy, which represented almost 7% of the estimated $30 billion market loss for that single event.

根據 2012 年 AIG 的傳統承保策略和再保險選擇，AIG 公佈的超級風暴桑迪初始稅前損失為 20 億美元，佔該單一事件預計 300 億美元市場損失的近 7%。

And for the full year 2012, AIG recognized approximately $2.7 billion of losses or approximately 4% of the market losses.

2012 年全年，AIG 確認損失約 27 億美元，約佔市場損失的 4%。

Today, AIG is forecasted to be within our catastrophe loss expectations for the full year or, more importantly, less than 1% market share of the forecasted total industry loss for 2024 of over $125 billion.

今天，預計 AIG 全年的災難損失將在我們的預期之內，或者更重要的是，在 2024 年預計超過 1,250 億美元的行業總損失中，其市場份額不到 1%。

Additionally, it's worth noting that our property portfolio net premiums written are approximately the same amount in 2024 as they were in 2012.

此外，值得注意的是，我們的房地產投資組合 2024 年的淨承保保費與 2012 年大致相同。

However, today, we have 80% lower cat losses and volatility.

然而，今天，我們的巨災損失和波動性降低了 80%。

And importantly, our year-to-date 2024 commercial property combined ratio was in the low 80s, compared to a combined ratio of nearly 120% in 2012.

重要的是，我們 2024 年迄今的商業房地產綜合成本率處於 80 左右，而 2012 年的綜合成本率接近 120%。

We've completely transformed our business over the past five years, and this is the new AIG.

在過去的五年裡，我們徹底改變了我們的業務，這就是新的 AIG。

AIG's strategy to manage volatility through our gross underwriting actions and our approach to reinsurance, including our decision to maintain the lowest net retention amongst our global competitors, has delivered significant benefits for the company and positions us well for the future in an environment with significantly elevated insured loss activity and modeling uncertainty.

AIG 透過我們的總承保行動和再保險方法來管理波動性的策略，包括我們在全球競爭對手中保持最低淨保留率的決定，為公司帶來了巨大的利益，並使我們在未來的環境中處於有利地位保險損失活動和建模不確定性。

Let me take a minute to comment on high-level expectations for the upcoming January 1 renewal season for property.

讓我花一點時間評論一下對即將到來的 1 月 1 日房地產更新季節的高層期望。

The significant reset in the property cat reinsurance market in 2023 means that reinsurers generally have higher attachment points, provide named perils and have significant retro protection, and therefore, are likely to make an underwriting profit on their global catastrophe portfolios in 2024 given the current loss levels and the benefit of reinstatement premiums.

2023年財產巨災再保險市場的重大重置意味著再保險公司通常擁有更高的依附點、提供指定風險並具有顯著的追溯保護，因此考慮到當前的損失，其全球巨災投資組合很可能在2024年獲得承保利潤水準和恢復保費的好處。

With this expectation of underwriting profit, the overall reinsurance market should remain healthy.

考慮到承保利潤的預期，整體再保險市場應該保持健康。

Despite the strong capital position of the market, generally speaking, I would expect the market to remain disciplined at January 1, not reducing attachment points and focusing on deploying capital to the insurance companies with higher quality portfolios like AIG.

儘管市場資本狀況強勁，但總體而言，我預計市場在 1 月 1 日仍將保持紀律，不會減少附著點，而是專注於將資本配置到 AIG 等擁有更高品質投資組合的保險公司。

Given that this has become the industry norm, as I mentioned earlier, industry losses from increased frequency and severity will continue to be realized by primary insurers and will not be solved by the reinsurance market in 2025.

鑑於這已成為行業常態，正如我之前提到的，由於頻率和嚴重程度增加而造成的行業損失將繼續由主保險公司承擔，而到 2025 年，再保險市場將無法解決這一問題。

Let me move on to provide an update on AIG Next, which we launched in early 2024 to further position AIG for the future.

接下來，我將介紹 AIG Next 的最新情況，我們在 2024 年初推出該項目，以進一步為 AIG 的未來定位。

Over the past several years, we've been on a journey to simplify the company by weaving the organization together to operate seamlessly across underwriting, actuarial, claims and all of our functional areas with the necessary skills and capabilities to effectively differentiate AIG for the future.

在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在簡化公司，將組織整合在一起，在承保、精算、索賠和我們所有的職能領域無縫運作，並具備必要的技能和能力，使AIG 未來能夠有效地脫穎而出。

In 2025, we expect to fully realize the $500 million in savings from AIG Next.

到 2025 年，我們預計將完全實現 AIG Next 節省的 5 億美元。

These savings will impact multiple areas across other operations and general insurance.

這些節省將影響其他業務和一般保險的多個領域。

As part of the AIG Next program, we've established a new definition of parent expense to exclusively reflect costs related to being a global regulated public company and expect those costs to be around $350 million going forward.

作為 AIG Next 計畫的一部分，我們對母公司費用制定了新的定義，專門反映與成為全球受監管上市公司相關的成本，預計未來這些成本約為 3.5 億美元。

In the future, costs currently attributed to other operations will either be eliminated or included within the general insurance results.

將來，目前歸因於其他業務的成本將被消除或包含在一般保險績效中。

You can see the impact of this effort already flowing through our income statement as other operations expenses are down nearly $30 million year-over-year or $40 million sequentially.

您可以看到這項努力的影響已經體現在我們的損益表中，因為其他營運費用比去年同期下降了近 3000 萬美元，環比下降了 4000 萬美元。

This reduction reflects the expense benefits from AIG Next and the transfer of a portion of these costs to general insurance GOE.

這一減少反映了 AIG Next 的費用收益以及將部分成本轉移至普通保險 GOE。

The ability of the businesses to absorb these additional costs with minimal impact to the expense ratio is due in large part to our significant focus on managing expenses.

企業能夠在對費用比率影響最小的情況下吸收這些額外成本，很大程度上歸功於我們對管理費用的高度重視。

AIG Next has also enabled us to invest in core capabilities and the implementation of strategic innovation initiatives, notably in underwriting, claims, and our data, digital and AI strategy.

AIG Next 還使我們能夠投資於核心能力和戰略創新計劃的實施，特別是在承保、索賠以及我們的數據、數位和人工智慧策略方面。

Let me provide you with more detail.

讓我為您提供更多詳細資訊。

Many companies are discussing their data, digital and AI strategies, but what is actually being done varies greatly from company to company.

許多公司都在討論他們的數據、數位和人工智慧策略，但實際所做的事情因公司而異。

At AIG, we're utilizing Gen AI and large language models as digital accelerators and applications that support the innovation journey, but they are not the innovation alone.

在 AIG，我們利用 Gen AI 和大型語言模型作為支持創新之旅的數位加速器和應用程序，但它們不僅僅是創新。

This is what makes our recently announced collaborative space in Atlanta is so unique.

這就是我們最近宣布的亞特蘭大合作空間如此獨特的原因。

It will be the first location in our global footprint where an end-to-end underwriting process will exist from distribution and sales, the data insights, underwriting, claims payments and client servicing.

這將是我們全球足跡中第一個存在從分銷和銷售、數據洞察、承保、索賠支付和客戶服務的端到端承保流程的地點。

This location will allow us to innovate and evolve the end-to-end process, further develop our Agentic GenAI ecosystem, drive role clarity, and digitize and modernize our processes.

這個地點將使我們能夠創新和發展端到端流程，進一步開發我們的 Agentic GenAI 生態系統，推動角色明確化，並使我們的流程數位化和現代化。

Gen AI can produce meaningful gains from reducing manual inputs and driving process efficiencies, however, our Gen AI ecosystem is doing much more than that.

Gen AI 可以透過減少手動輸入和提高流程效率來產生有意義的收益，但是，我們的 Gen AI 生態系統所做的遠不止於此。

It integrates proprietary data from multiple sources with data ingestion capabilities to give us better data quality and a fraction of the time.

它將來自多個來源的專有資料與資料攝取功能整合在一起，為我們提供更好的資料品質和更短的時間。

In our early pilots, we've seen data collection and accuracy rates within our underwriting processes improved from levels near 75% to upwards of 90%, while reducing processing time significantly.

在我們的早期試點中，我們發現承保流程中的資料收集和準確率從接近 75% 的水準提高到 90% 以上，同時顯著縮短了處理時間。

We're also using our Gen AI ecosystem to increase our submission response rate while enabling our underwriters to prioritize the highest value business within our risk appetite.

我們也利用 Gen AI 生態系統來提高我們的提交回應率，同時使我們的承銷商能夠在我們的風險偏好範圍內優先考慮最高價值的業務。

These improvements will help drive growth and operating leverage as we deliver Gen AI to our businesses at scale.

當我們大規模向業務提供 Gen AI 時，這些改進將有助於推動成長和營運槓桿。

It will allow our underwriters to spend more time quoting and winning business and less time manually collecting data.

它將允許我們的承銷商花更多的時間來報價和贏得業務，而不是花更少的時間手動收集資料。

Our culture at AIG is one that is deeply rooted in underwriting expertise and excellence.

AIG 的文化深深植根於承保專業知識和卓越品質。

We help clients solve complex risk issues that require judgment and a nuanced understanding of clients' needs.

我們幫助客戶解決複雜的風險問題，這些問題需要判斷力和對客戶需求的細緻了解。

Maintaining the underwriter at the center of decision-making will continue to be paramount and a key differentiator for us.

讓承銷商保持在決策的中心地位將繼續是最重要的，也是我們的關鍵差異化因素。

Our AI initiatives are designed to do just that: deliver better outcomes and drive operating leverage, while keeping highly experienced underwriters at the core of the process.

我們的人工智慧計畫旨在做到這一點：提供更好的結果並提高營運槓桿，同時讓經驗豐富的核保人員處於流程的核心。

I'm now going to turn to capital management, where we continue to execute our balanced disciplined strategy.

我現在要談談資本管理，我們將繼續執行我們平衡的、嚴格的策略。

Our objectives are to preserve strong insurance company capital levels to support organic and potentially inorganic growth, maintain conservative debt leverage ratios, return excess capital to shareholders in the form of share repurchases, and dividends and maintain parent liquidity.

我們的目標是維持保險公司強勁的資本水平，以支持有機和潛在的無機成長，維持保守的債務槓桿率，以股票回購和股息的形式將多餘資本返還給股東，並維持母公司的流動性。

We made substantial progress over the last several years to improve the financial strength of AIG.

過去幾年，我們在提高 AIG 的財務實力方面取得了實質進展。

General insurance is well positioned for sustained profitable growth.

一般保險已做好了持續獲利成長的準備。

This has been a multiyear process that's centered on executing on our underwriting strategy, while increasing profitability and reducing volatility in our portfolio through a better mix of business, along with the strategic use of reinsurance.

這是一個多年的過程，重點是執行我們的承保策略，同時透過更好的業務組合以及再保險的策略性使用來提高盈利能力並減少我們投資組合的波動性。

An important result of our improved profitability is our ability to receive ordinary dividends from our operating subsidiaries, which provides consistent and increasing liquidity to the parent company.

我們獲利能力提高的一個重要結果是我們能夠從營運子公司獲得普通股息，這為母公司提供了持續且不斷增加的流動性。

Year-to-date we received ordinary dividends or their equivalents of approximately $3 billion from our businesses.

今年迄今為止，我們從我們的業務中收到了約 30 億美元的普通股息或等值股息。

Our financial strength is also evidenced by the lower levels of debt on our balance sheet.

資產負債表上較低的債務水準也證明了我們的財務實力。

Historically, AIG had one of the highest debt to total capital leverage ratios in the industry at over 30%.

從歷史上看，AIG 是業內債務與總資本槓桿比率最高的公司之一，超過 30%。

In 2024, we have reduced debt levels by $1 billion, bringing our debt to total capital leverage ratio to 17.9%, including AOCI, amongst the lowest in our peer group, an achievement that requires significant discipline.

到 2024 年，我們將債務水準降低了 10 億美元，使債務佔總資本槓桿率達到 17.9%，其中 AOCI 是我們同行中最低的，這項成就需要嚴格的紀律。

Through the first nine months of 2024, we returned over $5.5 billion to shareholders through $4.8 billion of common stock repurchases and $765 million of dividends.

2024 年前 9 個月，我們透過 48 億美元的普通股回購和 7.65 億美元的股息向股東返還了超過 55 億美元。

As we've stated previously, we will continue to execute on our $10 billion share repurchase authorization over the course of 2024 and 2025, subject to market conditions and timing of the closing of pending transactions.

正如我們之前所說，我們將在 2024 年和 2025 年期間繼續執行 100 億美元的股票回購授權，具體取決於市場狀況和待完成交易的結束時間。

The current authorization will bring us within our target share count range of 550 million to 600 million shares.

目前的授權將使我們的目標股數範圍達到 5.5 億至 6 億股。

Importantly, our anticipated parent liquidity provides the flexibility to support additional share repurchases, which we will review in 2025.

重要的是，我們預期的母公司流動性提供了支持額外股票回購的靈活性，我們將在 2025 年對其進行審查。

Earlier this year, we increased the cash dividend to shareholders on AIG common stock by 11%.

今年早些時候，我們將 AIG 普通股股東的現金股利增加了 11%。

We will continue to review our dividend annually, considering additional increases as appropriate, supported by our increased earnings power.

我們將繼續每年審查我們的股息，考慮在我們增強的盈利能力的支持下適當增加股息。

This will be an important focus for us in 2025 and beyond.

這將是我們 2025 年及以後的重要焦點。

We ended the third quarter with parent liquidity of $4.2 billion.

第三季末，我們母公司的流動性為 42 億美元。

With the combination of our disciplined capital management, sustained continued underwriting performance and focus on expense management, we expect to deliver a 10% core operating ROE for the full year 2025.

透過嚴格的資本管理、持續的承保績效以及對費用管理的關注，我們預計 2025 年全年核心營運 ROE 將達到 10%。

We recognize that with core operating equity of $34.5 billion at the end of the third quarter, parent liquidity, our capital in the insurance company subsidiaries and future proceeds from corporate sell-downs, we have excess capital for the size of the business we are today.

我們認識到，憑藉第三季末 345 億美元的核心營運權益、母公司的流動性、我們在保險公司子公司的資本以及公司出售的未來收益，我們對於今天的業務規模擁有過剩的資本。

We will proactively manage our capital over time to support growth in our business, and we will maintain a capital management strategy centered on balance and patience while remaining nimble to execute should attractive opportunities arise.

我們將隨著時間的推移積極管理我們的資本，以支持我們業務的成長，我們將維持以平衡和耐心為中心的資本管理策略，同時在出現有吸引力的機會時保持靈活執行。

In summary, I'm very pleased with our outstanding third quarter performance.

總之，我對我們第三季的出色表現感到非常滿意。

As we approach year-end and plan for 2025, our path forward is clear.

隨著年底的臨近和 2025 年的規劃，我們的前進道路已經明確。

We will continue to solidify AIG's position as a global market leader and remain focused on value creation for our customers and shareholders.

我們將繼續鞏固 AIG 作為全球市場領導者的地位，並繼續專注於為客戶和股東創造價值。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Sabra.

這樣，我會將電話轉給 Sabra。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

This morning, I will provide details on third quarter results for general insurance, net investment income, other operations and capital.

今天早上，我將提供有關普通保險、淨投資收入、其他業務和資本的第三季業績的詳細資訊。

Turning to general insurance.

轉向一般保險。

Adjusted pretax income, or APTI, was $1.2 billion.

調整後稅前收入（APTI）為 12 億美元。

Underwriting income was $437 million, including $411 million of catastrophe losses.

承保收入為 4.37 億美元，其中包括 4.11 億美元的巨災損失。

Hurricanes Beryl and Helene were the two largest losses in the quarter.

貝裡爾颶風和海倫颶風是本季損失最大的兩場颶風。

Hurricane Milton made landfall on October 9, and therefore, its financial impact will be recognized in the fourth quarter.

颶風米爾頓於 10 月 9 日登陸，因此其財務影響將在第四季顯現。

Peter commented on the complexity of determining ultimates for natural catastrophes, and at this point, we have a very wide range of estimates for modeling firms.

彼得評論了確定自然災害最終結果的複雜性，在這一點上，我們對建模公司有非常廣泛的估計。

Claims activity to date for Milton has been relatively light compared to storms of similar strength and intensity.

與強度和強度相似的風暴相比，迄今為止米爾頓的索賠活動相對較少。

Our current preliminary loss estimate for Milton is between $175 million and $275 million.

我們目前對 Milton 的初步損失估計在 1.75 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間。

The third quarter 2024 accident year combined ratio as adjusted was 88.3%, about 140 basis points higher than last year, principally due to changes in premium mix and reinsurance structure and favorable actual versus expected experience in the third quarter of 2023.

調整後的2024年第三季事故年綜合成本率為88.3%，比去年高出約140個基點，主要是由於保費組合和再保險結構的變化以及2023年第三季度的實際經驗與預期相比有利。

We also had one large closeout transaction, which Peter mentioned, that increased the consolidated loss ratio by about 40 basis points.

Peter 提到，我們還進行了一項大型清倉交易，該交易使綜合損失率增加了約 40 個基點。

Year-to-date, the accident year combined ratio is 88.1%, down 60 basis points from 2023.

年初至今，事故年綜合率為88.1%，較2023年下降60個基點。

The accident year loss ratio was 56.4 for the quarter, including the impact of the closeout transaction, and 56.4 year-to-date, flat with the first nine months of 2023.

本季的事故年損失率為 56.4（包括清倉交易的影響），年初至今為 56.4，與 2023 年前 9 個月持平。

We expect the fourth quarter accident year loss ratio as adjusted will be in line with the first nine months of this year.

我們預計調整後的第四季事故年損失率將與今年前九個月保持一致。

Turning to prior year development.

轉向去年的發展。

This quarter, we had $153 million of favorable prior year development, including $34 million from the ADC amortization.

本季度，我們獲得了 1.53 億美元的去年有利發展，其中 3,400 萬美元來自 ADC 攤銷。

During the quarter, we completed detailed valuation reviews, or DVRs, on almost $22 billion or 47% of our total loss reserves.

本季度，我們完成了近 220 億美元（占我們總損失準備金的 47%）的詳細估值審查 (DVR)。

We reviewed most of the reserves for international in addition to North America property and financial lines.

除了北美房地產和金融業務外，我們還審查了大部分國際儲備。

Overall we had favorable prior year development on short-tail lines in global specialty and global commercial property and a modest amount in North America financial lines.

總體而言，去年我們在全球專業和全球商業房地產的短尾航線以及北美金融航線上取得了一定的發展。

This was partially offset by $181 million of adverse development in UK and Europe casualty and financial lines out of that $8 billion of reserves.

這被 80 億美元儲備中英國和歐洲傷亡和金融額度的 1.81 億美元不利發展所部分抵消。

This reflects refinements and loss estimates due to recent claims emergence and settlement activity on specific exposures in accident years 2019 and prior, consistent with our reserving philosophy of addressing bad news quickly.

這反映了由於最近的索賠出現和對 2019 年及之前事故年度特定風險的結算活動而進行的改進和損失估計，符合我們快速解決壞消息的保留理念。

In addition, we increased US excess casualty reserves by $72 million due to a large settlement of a legacy mass tort claim also related to accident years 2019 and prior, with most of the gross loss in the accident years that were ceded to the ADC.

此外，我們將美國的超額傷亡準備金增加了 7,200 萬美元，因為與 2019 年及之前的事故年份相關的遺留大規模侵權索賠得到了大額和解，事故年份的大部分總損失已轉交給 ADC。

We remain very comfortable with the adequacy of our loss reserves having completed DVRs covering more than 90% of reserves year-to-date and considering the results of our monthly actual versus expected process and other claims diagnostics.

我們對損失準備金的充足性仍然感到非常滿意，今年迄今已完成的 DVR 涵蓋了 90% 以上的準備金，並考慮了我們每月的實際與預期流程和其他索賠診斷的結果。

While North America financial lines had a slight amount of favorable development from accident years 2021 and prior, we did not adjust loss reserves for more recent accident years which have continued to show favorable indications relative to our book loss assumptions, consistent with our reserving philosophy of giving favorable experience time to mature.

儘管北美金融線自2021 年及之前的事故年份以來略有有利發展，但我們沒有調整最近事故年份的損失準備金，這些事故年份相對於我們的賬面損失假設繼續顯示出有利的跡象，這與我們的準備金理念一致給予有利的經驗成熟的時間。

Turning to pricing and loss trends.

轉向定價和損失趨勢。

Third quarter experience in global commercial lines was consistent with second quarter 2024 trends.

全球商業線第三季的經驗與 2024 年第二季的趨勢一致。

Excluding financial lines and workers' compensation, AIG's global commercial pricing, which includes rate and exposure, increased 6%, largely in line with loss cost trends.

不計財務額度和工人賠償，AIG 的全球商業定價（包括費率和風險敞口）增長了 6%，基本上符合損失成本趨勢。

In North America commercial, which is about half of our global commercial book, pricing excluding financial lines and workers' compensation was up 7% and with rate up more than 5.

北美商業房地產約占我們全球商業房地產的一半，不包括財務險種和工人薪酬的定價上漲了 7%，漲幅超過 5%。

North America casualty rate increases were strong with Lexington averaging 16% and retail casualty averaging 13%.

北美傷亡率成長強勁，列剋星敦平均為 16%，零售傷亡平均為 13%。

These are well above our casualty loss cost trends, which, as we've previously disclosed, are at 10% or higher depending on the line, risk and attachment point.

這些遠高於我們的傷亡損失成本趨勢，正如我們之前披露的那樣，傷亡損失成本趨勢為 10% 或更高，具體取決於線路、風險和附著點。

Property rates in North America Retail and Lexington were consistent with second quarter, and the underwriting margin remained strong, supported by cumulative rate increases over the past several years and our disciplined underwriting approach, particularly to cat-exposed property.

北美零售業和列剋星敦的房地產費率與第二季度一致，承保利潤率保持強勁，這得益於過去幾年的累積利率上漲以及我們嚴格的承保方法，特別是針對巨災風險的財產。

Pricing in international commercial, excluding financial lines, was up 4%, in line with loss trend, and underwriting profitability remains very strong.

國際商業定價（不包括金融險種）上漲了 4%，與虧損趨勢一致，承保獲利能力仍然非常強勁。

International property continued to achieve overall pricing in excess of loss trends.

國際房地產的整體定價持續超過虧損趨勢。

Our global footprint and diverse portfolio enable us to remain agile focusing on lines of business with attractive risk-adjusted returns while maintaining underwriting discipline.

我們的全球足跡和多元化的投資組合使我們能夠保持敏捷，專注於具有有吸引力的風險調整回報的業務線，同時保持承保紀律。

We are confident that the overall strength of our portfolio positions us to deliver sustainable underwriting profitability.

我們相信，我們投資組合的整體實力使我們能夠實現可持續的承保盈利能力。

Turning to investments.

轉向投資。

Our investment portfolio is of high credit quality, well diversified by asset class and matched to our liability duration.

我們的投資組合具有高信用質量，資產類別多元化，並且與我們的負債期限相符。

The increase in interest rates since 2021 has driven higher portfolio yields even as credit spreads have tightened.

儘管信貸利差收緊，但自 2021 年以來的利率上升推動了投資組合收益率的上升。

Third quarter 2024 net investment income on an APTI basis was $897 million, up 19% from the third quarter of 2023, driven by increased reinvestment rates on fixed maturities, higher short-term investment income, Corebridge dividends and other operations, slightly better private equity returns, and lower investment expense.

2024 年第三季以APTI 為基礎的淨投資收益為8.97 億美元，較2023 年第三季成長19%，其推動因素包括固定期限再投資率上升、短期投資收益增加、Corebridge 股息和其他業務、私募股權略有改善回報，並降低投資費用。

Reinvestment yields on fixed maturities and loans remains above runoff yields, providing positive yield pickup in the quarter.

固定期限和貸款的再投資收益率仍然高於徑流收益率，為本季提供了積極的收益率回升。

The average new money yield on general insurance fixed maturities and loans was 60 basis points higher than sales and maturities adjusted for one large sale in the quarter.

一般保險固定期限和貸款的平均新資金收益率比本季一筆大額銷售調整後的銷售額和期限高出 60 個基點。

General insurance investment income was $773 million, including income on fixed maturities, loans and short-term investments of $718 million and alternative investment income of $43 million.

一般保險投資收入為7.73億美元，其中固定期限、貸款及短期投資收入為7.18億美元，另類投資收入為4,300萬美元。

Considering the current interest rate curve, we project fourth quarter general insurance investment income on fixed maturities, loans and short-term investments to be approximately $710 million due to the impact of floating rate security resets, partially offset by higher reinvestment yields.

考慮到目前的利率曲線，由於浮動利率證券重置的影響，我們預計第四季度固定期限、貸款和短期投資的普通保險投資收入約為7.1 億美元，部分被較高的再投資收益率所抵消。

About 11% of our fixed maturities have monthly or quarterly floating rate resets to SOFR or other short-term market indices, which began to decline in the third quarter.

我們約 11% 的固定期限債券的月度或季度浮動利率重置為 SOFR 或其他短期市場指數，這些指數從第三季度開始下降。

Alternative income is principally from traditional private equity and now includes real estate investment funds that were previously consolidated.

另類收入主要來自傳統私募股權，現在包括先前合併的房地產投資基金。

These assets are reported on a 1-quarter lag basis.

這些資產的報告落後第一季。

And based on third quarter market performance, we expect fourth quarter private equity results may be similar to the year-to-date annualized return of 3.5%.

而根據第三季的市場表現，我們預期第四季私募股權業績可能與年初至今的年化報酬率3.5%相近。

Turning to other operations.

轉向其他操作。

Adjusted pretax loss in the quarter was $143 million, a nearly 50% year-over-year improvement driven by lower GOE and interest expense and higher net investment income which totaled $125 million in the quarter.

本季調整後稅前虧損為 1.43 億美元，較去年同期改善近 50%，原因是 GOE 和利息支出下降，以及本季淨投資收益增加（總計 1.25 億美元）。

Considering both lower short-term rates and projected parent liquidity balances before proceeds from any strategic transactions, short-term investment income could decline in the fourth quarter by about $25 million sequentially.

考慮到較低的短期利率以及在任何戰略交易收益之前預計母公司的流動性餘額，第四季度的短期投資收入可能會環比下降約 2500 萬美元。

To wrap up the quarter, the balance sheet remains very strong.

在本季結束時，資產負債表仍然非常強勁。

Book value per share was $71.46 at quarter-end, up 4% from June 30, 2024 due to the favorable impact of lower interest rates on AOCI.

由於利率降低對 AOCI 產生有利影響，季度末每股帳面價值為 71.46 美元，較 2024 年 6 月 30 日成長 4%。

Book value per share increased 10% from year-end 2023.

每股帳面價值較 2023 年底成長 10%。

Adjusted book value per share was $73.90, up 2% from June 30, due to reduced shares outstanding, and was down 6% from year-end 2023 due to different accounting treatment of Corebridge between the two periods.

由於流通股減少，調整後每股帳面價值為 73.90 美元，較 6 月 30 日增長 2%，由於 Corebridge 在兩個時期的會計處理不同，較 2023 年底下降 6%。

As Peter noted, our debt leverage ratios are very strong.

正如彼得所指出的，我們的債務槓桿率非常高。

We recently called a $400 million par 0 coupon bond, which will close November 22.

我們最近發行了 4 億美元的零面息債券，將於 11 月 22 日到期。

Core operating ROE, which measures the annualized return on AIG shareholders' equity, excluding the value of corporate shares and deferred tax assets, was 9.2% in the quarter and 9.3% year-to-date, reflecting strong general insurance profitability and capital levels.

衡量 AIG 股東權益年化回報率（不包括公司股票價值和遞延稅資產）的核心營運 ROE，本季為 9.2%，年初至今為 9.3%，反映出普通保險強勁的獲利能力和資本水準。

To conclude, AIG delivered another excellent quarter with significant financial and operational accomplishments.

總而言之，AIG 又一個出色的季度取得了顯著的財務和營運成就。

We are confident in our ability to deliver sustained underwriting results and a 10% core operating ROE in 2025.

我們對在 2025 年實現持續承保業績和 10% 的核心營運 ROE 的能力充滿信心。

And we look forward to updating you on our progress.

我們期待向您通報我們的最新進展。

With that, I will turn the call back over to Peter.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Sabra.

謝謝你，薩布拉。

And Michelle, we're ready for our first question.

米歇爾，我們準備好回答第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Meyer Shields, KBW.

（操作員說明）Meyer Shields，KBW。

I want to start with a question about reserves, if I can.

如果可以的話，我想從一個關於儲備的問題開始。

You talked about how recent accident year financial lines are emerging better than expected, but you're not booking that yet.

您談到最近事故年的財務狀況如何好於預期，但您還沒有預訂。

Can you talk a little bit about what's happening in the older accident years for, I guess, financial lines or casualty?

您能談談過去發生的事故情況嗎？

We saw the one-off issues, but I'm wondering, more broadly, is there the same sort of theme in the older accident years that could be getting closer to acknowledgment?

我們看到了一次性問題，但我想知道，更廣泛地說，在過去的事故年份中是否存在同樣的主題，可能會更接近承認？

I think Sabra provided quite a bit of detail in her prepared remarks.

我認為薩布拉在她準備好的發言中提供了相當多的細節。

But Sabra, do you have anything to perhaps give a little bit of context on financial lines?

但是 Sabra，您有什麼可以提供一些有關財務方面的背景資訊嗎？

.

。

Yes.

是的。

And let me just make a few comments.

讓我發表一些評論。

I mean, obviously, we had very strong favorable development in the DVRs this quarter.

我的意思是，顯然，本季我們在 DVR 方面取得了非常強勁的有利發展。

Consistent with our approach, we have allowed favorable development to -- or favorable experience to mature.

根據我們的做法，我們已經讓有利的發展或有利的經驗成熟。

And this quarter, particularly on shorter-tail lines, we had about $300 million of favorable development.

本季度，特別是在短尾航線上，我們獲得了約 3 億美元的有利發展。

I would just note that this quarter did not include workers' compensation.

我想指出的是，本季不包括工人賠償。

That was done in the third quarter of last year.

這是去年第三季完成的。

This year it was done in the second quarter, and we'll do it in the second quarter for next year as well.

今年是第二季做的，明年也是第二季做的。

What I would just comment on in terms of the -- I'll talk to the excess casualty first because I know that's been some focus.

我要評論的是——我將首先與過多的傷亡人員交談，因為我知道這是一些焦點。

The trigger for the action in North America casualty, for excess casualty, was for a particularly large settlement, gross of reinsurance, which was from very old accident years that were covered by the ADC.

北美傷亡事故（超額傷亡事故）的觸發因素是一筆特別大的和解（再保險總額），該賠償金額來自 ADC 承保的非常古老的事故年份。

Absent this settlement, we would not have made any adjustments in that line because the DVRs for that line are done in the second quarter normally.

如果沒有這項和解，我們就不會對該線路進行任何調整，因為該線路的 DVR 通常在第二季完成。

Turning to financial lines, let me just note that for the quarter in total, we had, post-ADC, the adverse development on financial lines was about $28 million in total.

談到財務狀況，請允許我指出，在本季度總計，ADC 後，財務狀況的不利發展總計約為 2800 萬美元。

That was driven by the adverse development on UK financial lines, which again was an older book with -- related to some specific exposures.

這是由英國金融線的不利發展所推動的，這又是一本較舊的書，與一些特定的風險敞口有關。

We did actually recognize favorable development on the US and international portfolios.

我們確實認識到美國和國際投資組合的良好發展。

And I would note, that was for older accident years.

我要指出的是，那是針對較早的事故年份。

The favorable development that we recognized is generally on older years where the experience has matured as the policy form is claims made, but we continue to hold reserves, obviously, for those older accident years based on the existing claims or other activity within that book.

我們認識到的有利發展通常是在較早的年份，隨著保單形式的索賠，經驗已經成熟，但顯然，我們繼續根據現有索賠或該書中的其他活動為那些較早的事故年份保留準備金。

And we will evaluate again in the third quarter of next year, is when we'll do our deep dive on the global financial lines portfolio.

我們將在明年第三季再次評估，屆時我們將深入研究全球金融產品組合。

Thanks, Sabra.

謝謝，薩布拉。

Meyer, is there a follow-up?

邁耶，有後續嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Just a quick one.

只是快一點。

Peter, you talked a lot about your expectations for property reinsurance in 2025.

Peter，您多次談到了您對 2025 年財產再保險的期望。

And I was hoping for an update on your thoughts of the appropriate reinsurance program property reinsurance program for AIG, whether you're thinking of other -- of changing your net exposure?

我希望了解您對 AIG 適當的再保險計劃財產再保險計劃的最新想法，您是否正在考慮其他 - 改變您的淨風險敞口？

I covered a lot in my prepared remarks.

我在準備好的發言中談到了很多內容。

Again, I think the industry has become experts on reinsurance pricing, and I expect that the market will be orderly, but I don't expect attachment points are going to come down for the industry.

再說一次，我認為該行業已經成為再保險定價的專家，我預計市場將是有序的，但我不認為該行業的附著點會下降。

What I was trying to outline in my comments was that most of it is retained by insurance companies today.

我在評論中試圖概述的是，其中大部分現在都由保險公司保留。

And so therefore, how we're going to price business going forward, how we're going to understand the frequency of cat is going to be really important to do as an insurance company, and not rely on reinsurance.

因此，作為一家保險公司，我們將如何為未來的業務定價，我們將如何了解巨災的頻率，而不是依賴再保險，這將非常重要。

I don't think we're going to have a material change in our structures.

我認為我們的結構不會有重大變化。

Of course, we have low attachment points.

當然，我們的依戀點很低。

It's very complex and I won't spend a lot of time on it.

它非常複雜，我不會花很多時間在上面。

But we certainly have the balance sheet, we certainly have the risk appetite to take a little bit more of that in the event that we want to.

但我們當然有資產負債表，我們當然有風險偏好，可以在我們想要的情況下採取更多的措施。

But we like having low attachment points on severity, and we like having our aggregate, that protects us from frequency.

但我們喜歡在嚴重性上擁有較低的附著點，我們喜歡擁有我們的聚合，這可以保護我們免受頻率的影響。

And so we manage our net according to our risk appetite, it's within expectations, and I would expect us to continue the same strategic philosophy.

因此，我們根據風險偏好來管理我們的網絡，這在預期之內，我希望我們能夠繼續採用相同的策略理念。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

布萊恩·梅雷迪思，瑞銀集團。

Peter, I think we're hearing a little bit from other companies about some improvement in your casualty, particularly E&S casualty lines and maybe properties moderating.

彼得，我想我們從其他公司那裡聽到了一些關於你們的傷亡方面的一些改進，特別是 E&S 傷亡線，也許還有財產調節。

I wonder if you could give some color on your view of market conditions and kind of organic growth opportunities here in the fourth quarter and heading into 2025?

我想知道您是否可以談談您對第四季度和 2025 年市場狀況以及有機成長機會的看法？

Thanks, Brian, and I'm going to make a comment, I'm going to have Don talk specifically about Lexington.

謝謝，布萊恩，我要發表評論，我會讓唐具體談談列剋星敦。

But you're absolutely right, we see opportunities our clients.

但你是絕對正確的，我們看到了我們的客戶的機會。

We have such strong retention and they're looking for us to solve risk issues.

我們擁有如此強大的保留能力，他們正在尋找我們來解決風險問題。

New business opportunities are very good.

新的商機非常好。

The rating environment is very good.

評分環境非常好。

So we're cautious, but we think there's opportunities to grow.

所以我們很謹慎，但我們認為還有成長的機會。

In the retail casualty space, in multiple segments that we have as well as in E&S, I mentioned in my prepared remarks that our casualty submissions in E&S have been dramatic, and we see great growth opportunities there.

在零售傷亡領域，在我們以及 E&S 的多個細分市場中，我在準備好的發言中提到，我們在 E&S 中提交的傷亡報告非常引人注目，我們在那裡看到了巨大的成長機會。

But Don, maybe you could expand a little bit on the Lexington.

但是唐，也許你可以稍微擴充一下列剋星敦號。

Great.

偉大的。

And if I could, Peter, just maybe a couple of high-level comments on North America overall, and then dig deeper into the Lex growth, because they are kind of balanced.

如果可以的話，Peter，也許我可以對北美整體發表一些高層評論，然後更深入地研究 Lex 的成長，因為它們是平衡的。

So the double-digit growth in North America is balanced growth.

所以北美的兩位數成長是平衡成長。

We're growing the lines where we see attractive opportunities.

我們正在擴大我們看到有吸引力的機會的產品線。

And to the point of your question, we're growing in all three channels where we operate: retail, wholesale alternative.

就你的問題而言，我們在經營的所有三個管道中都在成長：零售、批發替代。

Peter covered some of the North American growth drivers.

Peter 介紹了一些北美成長動力。

Positive rate of 3% across the portfolio, strong retention of 87%, 90% in the admitted lines.

整個組合的陽性率為3%，強保留率為87%，錄取線為90%。

And then overall, strong new business growth of 22%.

整體而言，新業務成長強勁，達 22%。

On Lexington, we do continue to invest in Lex across all lines.

在列剋星敦，我們確實繼續對 Lex 的各個方面進行投資。

So you'll see Lex continue to show up with more resources, more products, enhanced capabilities going forward.

因此，您將看到 Lex 繼續展示更多資源、更多產品和增強的功能。

On the third quarter performance, as Peter mentioned, 78% for retention, which is really strong, a 24% increase in new business.

關於第三季的業績，正如 Peter 所提到的，保留率為 78%，這確實很強勁，新業務成長了 24%。

And to the point of your question, casualty showed up very well in the E&S space in terms of new business for the quarter.

就您的問題而言，就本季度的新業務而言，傷亡事故在 E&S 領域表現得非常好。

We also saw a 35% increase in submission.

我們也看到提交量增加了 35%。

So the submission activity continues to be very robust in the E&S space for us.

因此，對我們來說，E&S 領域的提交活動仍然非常活躍。

It's generated probably about two things.

它的產生可能與兩件事有關。

One is just increasing demand for E&S solutions in general and a flight to quality within E&S.

一是對 E&S 解決方案的整體需求不斷增加，以及 E&S 內部對品質的追求。

For me, personally, when I think about the nature of a wholesale broker today versus when I started in this industry, it's a completely different game.

就我個人而言，當我思考今天的批發經紀人的性質與我剛進入這個行業時相比，這是一個完全不同的遊戲。

The brokers in the wholesale space operate at a different level today, incredibly well resourced, data-driven, effectively deploy technology to drive efficiency, which is critical in wholesale.

如今，批發領域的經紀人在不同的層面上運作，資源極其豐富，以數據為驅動，有效地部署技術來提高效率，這對批發來說至關重要。

They're also increasingly being embraced by thousands of independent agents for market access and placement capabilities.

它們也越來越多地受到數千名獨立代理商的歡迎，以獲取市場准入和安置能力。

So Lex will continue to benefit from that trend in terms of the growth of our book and new business.

因此，萊克斯將在我們的圖書和新業務的成長方面繼續受益於這一趨勢。

And Peter, just a couple of data points to close out on E&S, which might be helpful.

Peter，僅提供幾個關於 E&S 的數據點，這可能會有所幫助。

Today E&S represents 12% of a $115 billion US P&C industry.

如今，E&S 占美國財產與意外險 (P&C) 產業價值 1,150 億美元的 12%。

In 2018, E&S was 7% of a $50 billion industry.

2018 年，E&S 佔 500 億美元產業的 7%。

So the pie has gotten considerably larger.

所以蛋糕已經變得更大了。

And the last data point I'd give you, just on distribution.

我給你的最後一個數據點是關於分佈的。

The top 5 wholesale brokers control over 65% of the growing $115 billion E&S market.

前 5 名的批發經紀商控制著不斷增長的 1,150 億美元 E&S 市場的 65% 以上。

Lex is very well positioned in E&S and very well positioned with these top brokers.

Lex 在 E&S 領域處於非常有利的地位，並且在這些頂級經紀商中處於非常有利的地位。

Thanks, Don.

謝謝，唐。

Brian, do you have a follow-up?

布萊恩，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes, absolutely.

是的，絕對是。

A bigger picture question here, Peter.

這是一個更大的問題，彼得。

So I think you said that you're expecting a 10% core ROE for 2025.

所以我認為您說過您預計 2025 年核心 ROE 為 10%。

If I look at pure companies, they're kind of trending in the mid- to even higher teens.

如果我看一下純粹的公司，它們的趨勢是在十幾歲左右。

What's your kind of longer-term view of kind of ROE aspirations?

您對 ROE 期望的長期看法是什麼？

Do you think can get to peer ROEs?

您認為ROE可以達到同業水準嗎？

And what do you think it's going to take to get there?

您認為要實現這一目標需要什麼？

Is it more margin improvement?

利潤率是否有更多改善？

You need to kind of grow acquisitions?

您需要增加收購嗎？

Just curious, bigger picture of your thoughts there.

只是好奇，想了解你的想法。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Brian.

謝謝，布萊恩。

I mean, obviously, we've been talking a lot about the 10% and gave guidance in my prepared remarks about getting to that in 2025.

我的意思是，顯然，我們一直在談論很多關於 10% 的問題，並在我準備好的關於 2025 年實現這一目標的演講中提供了指導。

There's a variety of ways in which we can get there.

我們可以透過多種方式實現這一目標。

We talked about our combined ratio and the opportunities to improve that.

我們討論了我們的綜合比率以及改進該比率的機會。

We have such a great underwriting culture and believe that there's lots of opportunities, of course, is market dependent, but our leadership position in the market allows us to remain disciplined and focused on clients.

我們擁有良好的核保文化，並相信有很多機會，當然，這取決於市場，但我們在市場中的領導地位使我們能夠保持紀律並專注於客戶。

The other variables, I mean, certainly, it's our equity base.

我的意思是，其他變數當然是我們的股本基礎。

We talked about that a little bit and that we believe we can grow into it.

我們對此進行了一些討論，我們相信我們可以成長為這個目標。

And that's, of course, going to generate more earnings opportunity.

當然，這將產生更多的獲利機會。

Our net investment income, net premiums written, both from pure growth in terms of strong retention, more new business, but also reinsurance structures, how we look at proportional versus excess of loss, and there's ways in which we could have some tailwinds there.

我們的淨投資收入、淨承保保費，既來自於強勁的保留率、更多新業務方面的純淨增長，也來自於再保險結構，我們如何看待比例損失與超額損失，以及我們可以在這方面獲得一些順風車的方法。

Quality of our reserves, which we continue to emphasize.

我們繼續強調的儲備品質。

Sabra gave a lot of detail in the prepared remarks and on the answer just now.

薩布拉在準備好的發言和剛才的回答中給了許多細節。

So we have a lot of confidence there.

所以我們對此充滿信心。

Capital management actions, we have lots of flexibility, subject to when we close Nippon, do have other capital market transactions.

資本管理行動，我們有很大的彈性，取決於我們何時關閉日本，確實有其他資本市場交易。

But there's lots of ways in which, from a capital management standpoint, allow us to improve.

但從資本管理的角度來看，有許多方法可以讓我們改進。

Our ability and track record to successfully manage volatility is very important.

我們成功管理波動性的能力和記錄非常重要。

And then the last one is our expense management is very disciplined.

最後一點是我們的費用管理非常有紀律。

We are executing on AIG Next; that showed itself in the third quarter.

我們正在 AIG Next 上執行；這在第三季就顯現出來了。

We're not looking to hit the ball out of the park every quarter leading in 2025.

我們不希望在 2025 年之前每季都取得出色成績。

We pulled guidance forward, that we will be able to get other operations, which was substantially higher to a $350 million lean parent, but also get the expenses either eliminated or into the business without increasing the combined ratio.

我們向前推進了指引，即我們將能夠獲得其他業務，這比 3.5 億美元的精益母公司要高得多，但也可以在不增加綜合比率的情況下消除費用或將其納入業務。

We're well underway.

我們進展順利。

You can see evidence of that in the third quarter.

你可以在第三季看到這方面的證據。

You'll see more evidence of that in the fourth quarter.

您將在第四季度看到更多這方面的證據。

So there's a bunch of ways in which I think that we can deliver it.

因此，我認為我們可以透過多種方式來實現這一目標。

And once we get north of the 10%, we'll provide guidance after that.

一旦我們超過 10%，我們將在此之後提供指導。

But thank you.

但謝謝你。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅布·考克斯，高盛。

I think you guys had previously noted M&A potentially becoming a more meaningful consideration for capital deployment.

我想你們之前已經注意到併購可能成為資本部署更有意義的考量。

But you also mentioned revisiting share repurchase guidance as you expect some further liquidity coming in next year.

但您也提到重新審視股票回購指引，因為您預計明年會出現更多流動性。

Can you give us an update on your appetite for M&A and how that might help you reach premium leverage objectives quicker than organically?

您能否向我們介紹一下您對併購的興趣的最新情況，以及這如何幫助您比自然方式更快地實現溢價槓桿目標？

Sure, Rob.

當然，羅布。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I'll start with the second part.

我將從第二部分開始。

The guidance we gave was that we would do $10 billion of share repurchases in '24 and '25.

我們給出的指導是，我們將在 24 年和 25 年進行 100 億美元的股票回購。

And so like you could see through the third quarter, we are well underway executing every quarter.

正如您在第三季度看到的那樣，我們每個季度都在順利執行。

We'll have more liquidity coming in.

我們將有更多的流動性流入。

And so that's the priority with the proceeds coming in from Nippon and I said other marketed yields and liquidity that we currently have in the parent company.

因此，這是來自日本的收益的優先事項，我說的是我們目前在母公司擁有的其他市場收益率和流動性。

In terms of M&A, we have given ourselves lots of options.

在併購方面，我們給了自己很多選擇。

We have the financial strength, the financial flexibility to explore inorganic opportunities.

我們有財力、財務彈性來探索無機機會。

We're always looking at ways in which we can add strategic relevance and something that's compelling to AIG.

我們一直在尋找能夠增加戰略相關性和對 AIG 有吸引力的東西的方法。

We already have sizable, very high-quality businesses in major markets.

我們已經在主要市場擁有規模龐大、品質非常高的業務。

I mean you know about the US, UK, Japan, Singapore, Europe.

我的意思是你了解美國、英國、日本、新加坡、歐洲。

We believe we can grow those businesses organically, but there may be more opportunities to expand inorganically as well.

我們相信我們可以有機地發展這些業務，但也可能有更多的機會進行無機擴展。

We're going to remain very disciplined, but we are going to look at businesses and opportunities in inorganic that may complement our geographical footprint or product capabilities.

我們將保持嚴格的紀律，但我們將尋找可能補充我們的地理足跡或產品能力的無機業務和機會。

There's opportunities maybe to go into spaces that we're not in today, maybe some of the SME, or looking at ones that enhance scale of businesses that we already have market leadership, that just will accelerate our ability to execute our risk-adjusted returns.

也許有機會進入我們今天沒有涉足的領域，也許是一些中小企業，或者尋找那些能夠擴大我們已經擁有市場領導地位的業務規模的領域，這只會加速我們執行風險調整後回報的能力。

So I want to remain very disciplined, very patient, but we have the financial flexibility and the strategic intent of growing.

因此，我希望保持非常自律、非常耐心，但我們擁有財務靈活性和成長的策略意圖。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And as a follow-up on GOE and general insurance, didn't necessarily appear like it decreased as much as the run rate in the first half of the year.

而作為GOE和普通保險的後續，並不一定會出現像上半年運行率下降那麼多的情況。

So I was just hoping you could discuss kind of the puts and takes in the general insurance, GOE ratio and if this level of improvement is sort of in line with expectations.

所以我只是希望你能討論一下一般保險的看跌期權和支出、GOE 比率以及這種改善水平是否符合預期。

Yes, I was actually quite pleased with the third quarter in GOE, because we looked at other operations and the significant improvement that we made there on the GOE line year-over-year and then sequentially.

是的，我實際上對 GOE 第三季度感到非常滿意，因為我們研究了其他業務以及我們在 GOE 線上同比和環比方面取得的重大改進。

But also we are absorbing a lot of the expenses as they get pushed into the business.

但當他們投入業務時，我們也吸收了許多費用。

And so while the personal insurance year-over-year, the nominal was down, and then on commercial, it was slightly up.

因此，雖然個人保險的名目金額較去年同期下降，但商業保險的名目金額略有上升。

When you look at putting $50 million more of cost in, the run rate is actually quite attractive.

當你考慮再投入 5000 萬美元的成本時，運行率實際上相當有吸引力。

And so we have two major initiatives that have begun to earn in the third quarter, but you'll start to see a lot more of that in the fourth quarter and as we get to 2025.

因此，我們有兩項重大舉措已在第三季開始獲利，但到了第四季以及到 2025 年，您將開始看到更多這樣的舉措。

One was our voluntary early retirement plan that we had announced in the United States.

其中之一是我們在美國宣布的自願提前退休計劃。

And then we did a restructuring international that just really happened in September.

然後我們在九月進行了一次國際重組。

And so you'll start to see more run rate as we get into the fourth quarter and next year.

因此，當我們進入第四季度和明年時，您將開始看到更多的運行率。

But I'm really pleased with what we did in the third quarter and believe we are showing a lot of sequential improvement and executing to this future state operating model that's going to be much leaner, much simpler, much easier to follow.

但我對我們在第三季度所做的事情感到非常滿意，並相信我們正在展示大量的連續改進和執行，以實現未來的營運模式，該模式將變得更加精簡、更加簡單、更加容易遵循。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

亞歷克斯·斯科特，巴克萊銀行。

I had a follow-up on just sort of the leverage.

我對某種槓桿進行了跟進。

And I guess thinking through both leverage down at the operating companies as well as financial leverage.

我想，要考慮營運公司的槓桿率下降以及財務槓桿率。

When I look at the ROE, that seems to be the place where you're under index versus some of the peers, not so much, like the actual combined ratio and so forth.

當我查看股本回報率時，這似乎是您與一些同行相比處於指數之下的地方，而不是像實際綜合比率等那樣。

So I was interested in, I guess, on the debt leverage side.

所以我想我對債務槓桿方面很感興趣。

Are we at a place where leverage can actually begin to come up as you see opportunities, particularly if you do engage in M&A?

當你看到機會時，特別是如果你確實參與併購，我們是否處於一個真正可以開始發揮槓桿作用的地方？

And then on the core operations, I mean, can you frame at all, like how much dry powder you see in terms of being able to lean into some of these opportunities if they get better at casualty?

然後，在核心業務方面，我的意思是，您是否可以框架一下，如果您在傷亡方面做得更好，那麼您認為能夠利用其中一些機會有多少乾粉？

So thanks, Alex, for the question on -- on leverage, yes, we have a lot of -- I think it goes into what I said about potential M&A where we've given ourselves a lot of financial flexibility if we find something compelling and attractive.

所以，謝謝亞歷克斯，關於槓桿的問題，是的，我們有很多槓桿，我認為這涉及到我所說的潛在併購，如果我們發現一些令人信服的東西，我們就會給自己很大的財務靈活性和有吸引力的。

I think the high teens of a leverage to total capital, including AOCI, we're very comfortable with.

我認為，包括 AOCI 在內的總資本槓桿率高達十幾歲，我們對此感到非常滿意。

But absolutely what you were asking is a truth, which is if we find opportunities, can we increase our leverage to be able to execute on that?

但你問的絕對是事實，那就是如果我們找到機會，我們是否可以增加我們的影響力來執行它？

The answer is yes, we can.

答案是肯定的，我們可以。

And we're going to be very mindful.

我們會非常小心。

Obviously, the primary use for proceeds from the Corebridge sell-down will go to share repurchase, but we could continue to work on leverage a little bit to give us even more financial flexibility over time.

顯然，Corebridge 拋售收益的主要用途將用於股票回購，但我們可以繼續在槓桿方面進行一些努力，以便隨著時間的推移為我們提供更大的財務靈活性。

In terms of -- I just want to make sure I understand the second part, which is having -- we have a lot of capital.

就——我只是想確保我理解第二部分，也就是——我們擁有大量資本。

I don't -- look, it's a moment in time, and to quantify what we think is excess today, I don't think is something that is overly constructive just because we intend to grow into that.

我不——看，這是一個及時的時刻，要量化我們今天認為的過度，我不認為僅僅因為我們打算成長為那樣就過於有建設性。

We have shown real opportunities in our business to acquire new business.

我們已經在我們的業務中展示了獲得新業務的真正機會。

We had a terrific new business quarter.

我們度過了一個非常棒的新業務季度。

That momentum continues.

這種勢頭仍在繼續。

And I think, look, property was probably the one that was sort of slowing down in terms of pricing, but Milton and Helene have changed a lot.

我認為，看，房地產可能是定價方面放緩的一個，但米爾頓和海倫已經改變了很多。

And I think that there'll be more flight to quality and there will be more flexibility for AIG in terms of our ability to drive property growth than on a risk-adjusted basis throughout the world.

我認為，與在全球範圍內進行風險調整的基礎上相比，美國國際集團在推動房地產增長的能力方面將會有更多的追求質量的機會，並且會有更大的靈活性。

And so like I think the balanced portfolio, opportunities to grow, being able to take more net and being able to hit that 10% ROE is our near-term objective.

因此，我認為平衡的投資組合、成長的機會、能夠獲得更多淨收益並能夠達到 10% 的 ROE 是我們的近期目標。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Maybe a quick follow-up, on personal lines in North America.

或許可以透過北美的個人專線進行快速跟進。

Can you just give us an update on sort of where we stand with that MGA structure that was put in place?

您能否向我們介紹一下我們對已建立的 MGA 結構的最新情況？

And over what period of time you'd expect that combined ratio to come down below 100%?

您預計綜合成本率會在多長時間內降至 100% 以下？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I mean North America personal is in transition, as we spoke about.

我的意思是，正如我們所說，北美個人正在轉型。

It's hard in the primary high net worth business to effect change fast, but we're making great progress.

在主要的高淨值業務中，很難快速實現變革，但我們正在取得巨大進展。

In the quarter alone, the attritional loss ratios improved on a meaningful basis, GOEs down.

僅在本季度，自然損耗率就顯著改善，GOE 下降。

What you're seeing is the acquisition ratio increased quite a bit as we transitioned to the MGU.

您看到的是，當我們過渡到 MGU 時，收購率大幅增加。

Now there's a few things happening that will reverse that in 2025.

現在發生的一些事情將在 2025 年扭轉這一局面。

One is we're at scale, everything is fully put into the MGU, and we expect the ceding commission that we pay to go down, I think, in a meaningful way.

一是我們已經規模化，一切都已完全投入 MGU，我認為我們預計支付的佣金會以有意義的方式下降。

And so the acquisition expense ratio will improve accordingly.

因此收購費用率將相應改善。

I want to talk a little bit about like the strategy that we talked about, which is going into more nonadmitted and how that's going to accelerate progress.

我想談談我們討論過的策略，該戰略將進入更多非承認領域，以及這將如何加速進展。

And we announced it last quarter, but just a couple of statistics that will frame why it's early days but it's working.

我們在上個季度宣布了這一計劃，但只有一些統計數據可以解釋為什麼它還為時過早，但它正在發揮作用。

The rate environment that we're in on an admitted basis in the high net worth, we increased 10%.

在我們承認的高淨值人士所處的利率環境下，我們增加了 10%。

In E&S, it went up 20% on our held book.

在 E&S 方面，它比我們持有的帳面上漲了 20%。

Our partnership with Ryan Specialty, they're building infrastructure, building sales capacity, we're pointing a lot of retail agents that had no access to or capital for high net worth before our signing up.

我們與 Ryan Specialty 合作，他們正在建立基礎設施，建立銷售能力，我們指出許多零售代理商在我們簽約之前無法獲得高淨值資產或資本。

We expect that to accelerate and continue to grow.

我們預計這一趨勢將會加速並持續成長。

In the third quarter, our new business, 50% of it was E&S.

第三季度，我們的新業務，其中50%是E&S。

Again, we had good growth.

我們再次取得了良好的成長。

I mean the nominal is not going to move the needle, but we have momentum there.

我的意思是名義上的數據不會起到什麼作用，但我們有動力。

And I would expect in 2025, E&S alone in our strategy will grow the top line 10%.

我預計到 2025 年，我們的策略中僅 E&S 一項的收入就會成長 10%。

The demand is going to be significant.

需求將會很大。

Our ability to be able to respond to that demand is there with plenty of capacity and an appetite that is going to allow us to improve the risk-adjusted returns on the overall combined ratio.

我們有能力響應這項需求，擁有充足的產能和意願，這將使我們能夠提高整體綜合比率的風險調整回報。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊麗絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

My first question was just on the North America commercial.

我的第一個問題是關於北美廣告的。

If I adjust out the one-off in the quarter, right, it came in at 61.1 on an ex cat accident year loss ratio basis.

如果我調整掉本季的一次性損失，對吧，根據前事故年損失率計算，該比率為 61.1。

You guys are at 61.9 in the first half of the year.

你們今年上半年的得分是61.9。

So I was just hoping to get more color on what drove the improvement in the quarter and if that's sustainable into the fourth quarter and 2025.

因此，我只是希望獲得更多關於推動本季改善的因素以及這種情況是否可持續到第四季度和 2025 年的資訊。

This is not going to be like the 91.6 question, Elyse?

這不會像 91.6 問題那樣，Elyse？

Don, do you want to just give a little bit of insight in terms of what's happening with the loss ratio?

Don，您想就損失率的情況提供一些見解嗎？

So in the North American portfolio this year, we've seen some different movements, Peter.

因此，在今年的北美投資組合中，我們看到了一些不同的趨勢，彼得。

And some of it, if you look at -- we have some one-off movements that certainly moved the loss ratio, this one, which you talked about in your prepared remarks.

其中一些，如果你看一下——我們有一些一次性的變動，肯定會改變損失率，這就是你在準備好的發言中談到的。

We talked a little bit about the onetime closeout deal that we did that moved it up, so adverse implications.

我們討論了我們所做的一次性清倉交易，該交易使價格上漲，因此產生了不利影響。

I think, look, in the commentary, Elyse, we sort of backed out the 2, that weren't headwinds, they were just anomalies relative to what the prior year was.

我認為，Elyse，在評論中，我們有點退出了 2，這不是逆風，它們只是相對於前一年的異常情況。

And then the mix of business will continue to change.

然後業務組合將繼續發生變化。

We see real opportunities to grow in casualty, and so those may have a different loss ratio relative to the overall portfolio.

我們看到了傷亡人數成長的真正機會，因此相對於整體投資組合而言，這些人員的損失率可能有所不同。

We think there's going to be growth opportunities in property based on the market dynamics that are shifting in 2025.

我們認為，根據 2025 年市場動態的變化，房地產產業將會出現成長機會。

And we see that the headwinds on pricing and financial lines are slowing down.

我們看到定價和財務方面的阻力正在放緩。

We are not going to continue to ride that wave down, and on lead, first excess and leading in D&O.

我們不會繼續順勢而下，並在 D&O 方面處於領先地位、第一超額和領先地位。

I think Don highlighted this, is that we've seen a slowdown in the rate reductions.

我認為唐強調了這一點，我們已經看到降息速度放緩。

And as we look into 2025, that's all going to stabilize.

展望 2025 年，一切都會趨於穩定。

So I think that mix, if you take out the two things we talked about, which was significant outperformance in property and short-tail last year in the third quarter, along with the closeout, that that looks like a loss ratio that's sustainable.

因此，我認為，如果你剔除我們討論的兩件事，即去年第三季房地產和短尾股的顯著優異表現，以及清倉，這看起來像是可持續的損失率。

Yes.

是的。

My follow-up, I guess, would be, Peter, just building upon that comment, as you view the market conditions out over the next year, how do you expect the mix to shift between property and casualty relative to where it is today?

我想我的後續行動是，彼得，只是在這一評論的基礎上，當您審視明年的市場狀況時，您預計財產險和意外險之間的組合相對於今天的情況將如何變化？

It's hard to tell because, as I mentioned before, I think the property slowdown in terms of rate increases should start to reverse as you get to next year because there's so much net that's been retained by insurance companies that they're not getting the appropriate risk-adjusted returns for the cat loss at the low-return periods and the increased frequency and severity.

這很難說，因為正如我之前提到的，我認為房地產加息放緩應該會在明年開始逆轉，因為保險公司保留了太多的淨額，以至於他們沒有得到適當的資金。損失以及頻率和嚴重程度增加的風險調整回報。

So I think that's going to reverse.

所以我認為情況將會逆轉。

Casualty is very strong.

傷亡非常大。

And Don went into length on excess and surplus lines.

唐詳細討論了多餘的線條。

And then also, we're seeing slowdown in financial lines.

此外，我們也看到金融業務放緩。

And so I think that the overall index, I think, is going to sustain.

因此，我認為總體指數將會持續下去。

But we'll see when we get into the market and see what happens within particular property.

但當我們進入市場時，我們會看看特定房產會發生什麼。

But I'm optimistic, was why I put some time into it in the prepared remarks that we see a rate environment that's going to improve.

但我很樂觀，這就是為什麼我在準備好的評論中花了一些時間，我們看到利率環境將會改善。

I don't know, Jon, maybe just before the call ends, you can give a little bit of perspective in terms of where you see opportunities as we look to 2025 in international.

我不知道，喬恩，也許就在通話結束之前，您可以就我們展望 2025 年國際比賽時在哪裡看到的機會給出一些看法。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

I'll try not to repeat everything you've said.

我會盡量不重複你所說的一切。

You're right, the dynamic between the first-party lines and the third-party lines is there across international as well.

你是對的，第一方線路和第三方線路之間的動態在國際上也存在。

And we've seen the first party lines, we're still seeing good rates and price on property classes.

我們已經看到了第一方的線路，我們仍然看到了良好的利率和房產類別的價格。

But for me, a bit like Don with Lex, we've got these jaws in global specialty and Talbot.

但對我來說，有點像唐和萊克斯，我們在全球專業和塔爾博特方面擁有這些下巴。

Global specialty we are the number 1 writer of business around the world.

全球專業，我們是全球排名第一的商業作家。

We're number 1 in energy.

我們在能源領域排名第一。

We're number 1 in marine.

我們在海軍中排名第一。

We're top 3 in Aviation.

我們在航空領域排名前三。

We're number 4 in credit.

我們的信用排名第四。

And we're growing that business really well.

我們的業務發展得非常好。

You referenced in your prepared remarks, Peter, 6% growth in the quarter, but actually huge growth in energy, 25% new business growth in marine in the quarter.

Peter，您在準備好的發言中提到，本季成長了 6%，但實際上能源成長巨大，本季船舶新業務成長了 25%。

We're seeing a different dynamic at the moment where we've grown our international specialty book by 10% in the quarter.

目前我們看到了不同的動態，本季我們的國際專業書籍成長了 10%。

Talbot, again, another 6% growth, but the specialty lines at Talbot, the products at Talbot is really renowned for political risk, marine, energy, grown by 18%.

塔爾博特再次成長了 6%，但塔爾博特的專業產品線、塔爾博特的產品確實以政治風險、海洋、能源而聞名，成長了 18%。

If you look at -- add that to the fact that submissions are 25% up in both Talbot and specialty, our quote rates are higher, our bond rates are higher, we've got huge opportunity there.

如果你看一下——加上塔爾博特和專業領域的提交量都增加了 25%，我們的報價率更高，我們的債券利率更高，我們在那裡有巨大的機會。

And we're the best in the market at it.

我們是市場上最擅長的。

So we'll still keep seeing the opportunity.

所以我們仍然會繼續看到機會。

That's great, Jon.

太好了，喬恩。

Thank you very much, and I agree.

非常感謝，我也同意。

Before I finally close, I do want to take a moment to thank Sabra for many contributions at AIG.

在最後結束之前，我確實想花點時間感謝 Sabra 對 AIG 做出的許多貢獻。

Over the past five years, Sabra has always been willing to take on a variety of important complex roles, and in each instance, she's always done everything she can to add significant value.

在過去的五年裡，薩布拉一直願意承擔各種重要的複雜角色，在每一個例子中，她總是盡其所能增加重要的價值。

So thank you, Sabra, including the most recent role as CFO.

所以謝謝你，Sabra，包括最近擔任的財務長。

We wish her nothing but the best in her future endeavors as we welcome Keith Walsh as our new CFO.

我們歡迎基思沃爾什 (Keith Walsh) 擔任我們的新任財務官，並祝福她在未來的工作中一切順利。

I'd also like to thank all of our colleagues around the world for their continued dedication, commitment and teamwork and execution.

我還要感謝我們世界各地的所有同事的持續奉獻、承諾、團隊合作和執行力。

And I want to thank everybody for joining us today.

我要感謝大家今天加入我們。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

This does conclude the program.

這確實結束了該程式。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。

Good day.

再會。