AGCO Corp (AGCO) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the AGCO first-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

    大家好,歡迎參加 AGCO 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,此事件正在被記錄。

  • I would now like to turn the comforts over to Greg Peterson, AGCO, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我想將慰問工作交給 AGCO 投資人關係主管 Greg Peterson。請繼續。

  • Greg Peterson - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Greg Peterson - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Thanks, and good morning. Welcome to those of you joining us for AGCO's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. We will refer to a slide presentation this morning that's posted to our website at www.agcocorp.com. The non-GAAP measures used in the slide presentation are reconciled to GAAP measures in the appendix of that presentation. We will make forward-looking statements this morning, including statements about our strategic plans and initiatives as well as their financial impacts.

    謝謝,早安。歡迎各位參加 AGCO 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我們將參考今天上午發佈在我們的網站 www.agcocorp.com 上的幻燈片簡報。幻燈片簡報中使用的非 GAAP 指標與此簡報附錄中的 GAAP 指標進行了協調。我們將於今天上午發表前瞻性聲明,包括有關我們的策略計劃和舉措及其財務影響的聲明。

  • We'll discuss demand, product development and capital expenditure plans and timing of those plans and our expectations concerning the costs and benefits of those plans and the timing of those benefits. We'll also cover revenue, crop production and farm income, production levels, price levels, margins, earnings, operating income, cash flow, engineering expense, tax rates and other financial metrics.

    我們將討論需求、產品開發和資本支出計劃以及這些計劃的時間安排,以及我們對這些計劃的成本和收益以及這些收益的時間表的預期。我們還將介紹收入、農作物產量和農場收入、生產水平、價格水平、利潤率、收益、營業收入、現金流、工程費用、稅率和其他財務指標。

  • All of these are subject to risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the statements. These risks include, but are not limited to, adverse developments in the agricultural industry, supply chain disruption, inflation, tariffs, weather, commodity prices, changes in product demand, the possible failure to develop new and improved products on time, including premium technology and smart farming solutions within budget and with the expected performance and price benefits, difficulties in integrating the PTx Trimble business in a manner that would produce the expected financial results, introduction of new or improved products by our competitors and reductions in pricing by them, war in the Ukraine, difficulties in integrating acquired businesses and in completing expansion and modernization plans on time and in a manner that produces the expected financial results and adverse changes in the financial and foreign exchange markets. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested in these statements.

    所有這些都存在風險,可能導致實際結果與聲明中暗示的結果有重大差異。這些風險包括但不限於農業產業的不利發展、供應鏈中斷、通貨膨脹、關稅、天氣、商品價格、產品需求變化、可能無法按時開發新的和改進的產品,包括在預算內和具有預期性能和價格優勢的高端技術和智慧農業解決方案、難以以產生預期財務結果的方式整合 PTx Trimble業務、我們的競爭對手推出新的或改進的產品並降低價格、烏克蘭戰爭、難以整合收購的業務並按時完成擴張和現代化計劃以產生預期的財務結果以及金融和外匯市場的不利變化。實際結果可能與這些聲明中所建議的結果有重大差異。

  • Further information concerning these and other risks is included in AGCO's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024. AGCO disclaims any obligations to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

    有關這些風險和其他風險的更多資訊包含在 AGCO 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中,包括截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表格。除非法律要求,否則 AGCO 不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

  • We will make a replay of this call available on our corporate website later today. On the call with me this morning is Eric Hansotia, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Damon Audia, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    我們將在今天稍後在我們的公司網站上提供此通話的重播。今天早上與我一起通話的是我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Eric Hansotia;以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Damon Audia。

  • With that, Eric, please go ahead.

    好了,埃里克,請繼續。

  • Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Greg, and good morning to everyone on the call. I'm pleased to announce AGCO delivered solid results in the first quarter in the midst of a very challenging industry and an uncertain and evolving trade environment.

    謝謝,格雷格,各位電話裡的各位早安。我很高興地宣布,儘管行業充滿挑戰,貿易環境不確定且不斷變化,但愛科集團在第一季取得了穩健的業績。

  • We achieved over $2 billion in net sales, down approximately 30% compared to quarter one, 2024. The lower net sales are a result of continued soft demand in the Ag market, coupled with our efforts to destock dealer inventories as well as the impact of the divestiture of the grain and protein business.

    我們的淨銷售額超過 20 億美元,與 2024 年第一季相比下降約 30%。淨銷售額下降是由於農業市場需求持續疲軟,加上我們努力減少經銷商庫存,以及剝離穀物和蛋白質業務的影響。

  • Excluding last year's green and protein results, sales declined by about 25%. Consolidated operating margins were 2.4% on a reported basis and 4.1% on an adjusted basis, reflecting decremental margins in the low to mid-20% range.

    不計去年的綠色和蛋白質產品銷量,銷售額下降了約 25%。合併營業利益率為報告基礎 2.4%,調整後基礎 4.1%,反映利潤率在 20% 左右範圍內下降。

  • This reflects the strong performance from our teams around the world. They are executing on our sales plans as well as on the restructuring actions. We achieved these decremental margins despite a 33% reduction in production hours versus quarter one 2024, as we look to better align dealer inventories.

    這體現了我們全球團隊的出色表現。他們正在執行我們的銷售計劃以及重組行動。儘管與 2024 年第一季相比生產時間減少了 33%,但我們仍實現了這些遞減的利潤率,因為我們希望更好地協調經銷商庫存。

  • We've made headway lowering both working capital and dealer inventories, which were down across all regions. Our working capital progress showed up in our cash usage for the quarter, which was significantly improved compared to the first quarter of 2024.

    我們在降低營運資金和經銷商庫存方面取得了進展,所有地區的營運資金和經銷商庫存均有所下降。我們的營運資本進展體現在本季的現金使用情況中,與 2024 年第一季相比有顯著改善。

  • Sentiment in Europe, as measured by the SIMA index is on an upward trend. Europe currently represents the majority of AGCO's sales and should help mitigate the adverse impact of the US trade policy on our financials. Geopolitical uncertainties and trade frictions have dampened US farmer sentiment recently.

    以 SIMA 指數衡量,歐洲情緒呈現上升趨勢。歐洲目前佔 AGCO 銷售額的大部分,應該有助於減輕美國貿易政策對我們財務狀況的不利影響。近期,地緣政治不確定性和貿易摩擦打擊了美國農民的情緒。

  • And as a result, demand for machinery was lower in the quarter than we had expected. Despite higher net farm income forecast related to government aid, margins for US farmers remained tight due to high input costs and reduced export demand.

    因此,本季的機械需求低於我們的預期。儘管受政府援助影響,美國農場淨收入預期將提高,但由於投入成本高且出口需求減少,美國農民的利潤空間仍然很小。

  • On the flip side, South American farmers are expected to expand global share in key commodities over the next year due to trade policies. Our top priority during the geopolitical uncertainty is to take care of our farmers.

    另一方面,由於貿易政策,預計明年南美農民將擴大主要商品的全球份額。在地緣政治不確定時期,我們的首要任務是照顧我們的農民。

  • We want to be there to help them be more productive and more profitable by leveraging our industry-leading solutions. We will continue to monitor the rapidly changing tariff policies and implement pricing actions or supply chain adjustments where it makes sense and is feasible.

    我們希望利用我們領先業界的解決方案來幫助他們提高生產力和獲利能力。我們將繼續監控快速變化的關稅政策,並在合理可行的情況下實施定價行動或供應鏈調整。

  • AGCO continues to focus on its three high-margin growth levers by investing in key strategic markets and products, including smart farming solutions and enhanced digital capabilities to help deliver more resilient and higher earnings across the Ag cycle.

    愛科集團繼續專注於其三大高利潤成長槓桿,投資關鍵策略市場和產品,包括智慧農業解決方案和增強的數位化能力,以幫助在整個農業週期中實現更具彈性和更高的收益。

  • Our financials continue to be weighted toward the second half of the year as we expect the market to find bottom and start recovering along with optimizing dealer inventories. Slide 4 details industry unit retail sales by region for quarter one, 2025.

    我們的財務狀況將繼續專注於下半年,因為我們預計市場將觸底並開始復甦,同時經銷商庫存也將優化。投影片 4 詳細介紹了 2025 年第一季各地區行業單位零售額。

  • The global industry retail sales of farm equipment remained challenged in North America and Europe with some early signs of recovery in Brazil. In Western Europe, industry retail tractor sales decreased 17% during the first three months of 2025 compared to the first three months of 2024.

    全球農業設備產業零售額在北美和歐洲仍面臨挑戰,巴西則出現了一些早期復甦跡象。在西歐,2025 年頭三個月行業零售拖拉機銷量與 2024 年頭三個月相比下降了 17%。

  • You'll recall that last year at this time, we were still seeing relatively strong demand. Industry demand is expected to remain soft in 2025 as lower income levels pressure demand from (inaudible) farmers while healthy demand from dairy and livestock producers is expected to mitigate some of the decline. North America industry retail sales decreased 14% during the first three months compared to the first three months of 2024.

    您會記得,去年此時,我們仍然看到相對強勁的需求。預計 2025 年行業需求將保持疲軟,因為較低的收入水平會對(聽不清楚)農民的需求造成壓力,而乳製品和牲畜生產商的健康需求預計將緩解部分下滑。與 2024 年頭三個月相比,北美行業零售額在第一季下降了 14%。

  • Sales declines are relatively consistent across the horsepower categories with higher horsepower categories declining more in recent months. Combined unit sales were down 46% compared to the same period in 2024.

    不同馬力類別的銷售下降趨勢相對一致,近幾個月來,馬力較高的類別銷售下降幅度更大。與 2024 年同期相比,合併銷量下降了 46%。

  • Uncertain demand for green exports and higher input costs are expected to pressure industry demand in 2025, leading to weaker North American sales compared to 2024, particularly in large equipment. Brazil industry retail sales increased 11% during the first three months of 2025 compared to the first three months of 2024, primarily in the smaller tractor categories.

    預計綠色出口需求的不確定性和投入成本的上升將對 2025 年的行業需求造成壓力,導致北美的銷售(尤其是大型設備的銷售)較 2024 年減弱。2025 年前三個月,巴西行業零售額與 2024 年前三個月相比增長了 11%,主要集中在較小的拖拉機類別。

  • While the US may face reduced market access for key exports, Brazil is likely to ship more to China, which should help the industry recover faster. Despite record soybean harvest and potential trade benefits, we haven't seen meaningful improved demand for larger equipment yet.

    儘管美國可能面臨主要出口產品市場准入減少的問題,但巴西可能會增加對中國的出口,這將有助於該行業更快地復甦。儘管大豆產量創歷史新高且具有潛在的貿易利益,但我們尚未看到對大型設備的需求明顯改善。

  • If increased trade benefits farm economics, we could see improved demand later this year. For now, we expect industry demand in Brazil to improve modestly in 2025. Regardless of the near-term trade environment, AGCO will benefit from the long-term growth of the Agricultural Equipment segment, thanks to market expansion stemming from population growth and a middle class with diets that consists of greater amounts of protein.

    如果貿易成長有利於農業經濟,我們可能會在今年稍後看到需求增加。目前,我們預計巴西的工業需求將在 2025 年略有改善。無論短期貿易環境如何,由於人口成長和飲食中蛋白質含量較高的中產階級帶來的市場擴張,愛科集團都將受益於農業設備部門的長期成長。

  • Our tech stack has been evolving significantly over the past few years and allows us to provide farmers with a differentiated precision Ag solutions needed to raise yields and meet the world's growing agricultural needs. AGCO's factory production hours are shown on slide 5.

    在過去幾年裡,我們的技術堆疊取得了顯著進展,使我們能夠為農民提供差異化的精準農業解決方案,以提高產量並滿足世界日益增長的農業需求。AGCO 工廠的生產時間顯示在投影片 5 上。

  • To improve comparability, we have eliminated green and protein production hours from the 2024 hours shown here. Significant production cuts were made in all regions in quarter one, 2025, with the biggest reductions occurring in North and South America.

    為了提高可比性,我們從這裡顯示的 2024 小時中消除了綠色和蛋白質生產時間。2025 年第一季所有地區均大幅減產,其中北美和南美減產幅度最大。

  • Our production hours were down approximately 33% in quarter one, 2025, and versus quarter one, 2024. We remain laser-focused on reducing dealer inventories as quickly as possible in 2025, given the current soft demand environment and elevated dealer inventory levels. As I mentioned earlier, we have made progress in destocking the dealer channel in the first quarter, but still have work to do, primarily in North America and South America.

    2025 年第一季度,我們的生產時間與 2024 年第一季相比下降了約 33%。鑑於當前疲軟的需求環境和經銷商庫存水準上升,我們仍將致力於在 2025 年盡快減少經銷商庫存。正如我之前提到的,我們在第一季在去庫存經銷商通路方面取得了進展,但仍有工作要做,主要是在北美和南美。

  • We are projecting 2025 production hours between 15% and 20% lower than 2024, with the North America region showing the biggest decline. Our plan remains front loaded and aggressive to get inventory rightsized quickly.

    我們預計 2025 年的生產小時數將比 2024 年下降 15% 至 20%,其中北美地區的降幅最大。我們的計劃仍然是前期投入並積極推進,以迅速實現庫存的合理規模。

  • Our current outlook for 2025 assumes production in North America and South America will be less than retail demand. Diving into regional breakdown. In Europe, dealer inventory reduced modestly to just under four months, which is in line with our target.

    我們目前對 2025 年的展望是假設北美和南美的產量將低於零售需求。深入研究區域細分。在歐洲,經銷商庫存小幅減少至略低於四個月,這符合我們的目標。

  • Vent is still below this average and Massey Ferguson, Valtra are slightly above. Our near target dealer inventory level in Europe remains a positive for AGCO given significant exposure to this region. In South America, we reduced the number of units on hand at dealers by 7% from the quarter four, 2024 level, reducing the months of supply from around five months to approximately 4%. Given the forward outlook, this is still above our targeted level of three months. We still anticipate to underproduce relative to retail demand in the second quarter to further reduce dealer inventory levels.

    Vent 仍低於該平均水平,而 Massey Ferguson 和 Valtra 則略高於該平均水平。鑑於我們在歐洲的大量業務,接近目標經銷商庫存水準對 AGCO 來說仍然是有利的。在南美,我們將經銷商的庫存量從 2024 年第四季的水準減少了 7%,供應月數從大約五個月減少到大約 4%。從長遠來看,這仍然高於我們三個月的目標水平。我們仍預期第二季的產量將相對於零售需求不足,以進一步降低經銷商的庫存水準。

  • Similarly, in North America, we further reduced the units on hand at dealers by approximately 1% and in total from quarter four, 2024 levels. This is still approximately 8.5 months of supply versus our six-month target. However, this modest change is reflective of good momentum in large Ag, will reduce inventory by around two months and around 7% on a unit basis.

    同樣,在北美,我們進一步將經銷商的庫存量減少了約 1%,總量也從 2024 年第四季的水準開始減少。與我們的六個月目標相比,這仍然大約相當於 8.5 個月的供應量。然而,這種溫和的變化反映了大型農業的良好勢頭,將減少約兩個月的庫存,並按單位計算減少約 7%。

  • This solid progress was offset by the normal seasonal position for small Ag equipment entering the peak selling season for dealers. Given the continued challenging outlook in 2025, we currently expect to underproduce to retail demand into the third quarter.

    但這一穩定成長被小型農業設備進入經銷商銷售旺季的正常季節性狀況所抵消。鑑於 2025 年前景依然充滿挑戰,我們目前預計第三季的產量將無法滿足零售需求。

  • Moving to slide 6, where you'll see our three high-margin growth levers aimed at improving our mid-cycle operating margins to our new target of 14% to 15% by 2029, and outgrowing the industry by 4% to 5% annually.

    移到投影片 6,您將看到我們的三個高利潤成長槓桿,旨在將我們的中期營業利潤率提高到 2029 年的新目標 14% 至 15%,並且每年超過行業 4% 至 5%。

  • This demonstrates we are a much stronger company that has less variability throughout the business cycle, higher mid-cycle, but also higher highs and higher lows. To reiterate our 2029 growth lever targets, we discussed at our Analyst Meeting last December.

    這顯示我們是一家實力較強大的公司,整個商業週期的波動性較小,中期波動較大,但高點和低點也較高。為了重申我們 2029 年的成長槓桿目標,我們在去年 12 月的分析師會議上進行了討論。

  • Number one, the globalization and full-line product rollout of our Fendt brand, where we now expect North and South America and revenues to reach $1.7 billion. Number two, growing our precision ag sales to $2 billion globally, and number three, focusing on accelerating our global parts business and increasing the market share of genuine AGCO parts to achieve approximately $2.3 billion in global sales.

    第一,我們芬特品牌的全球化和全系列產品的推出,我們目前預計北美和南美的收入將達到 17 億美元。第二,將我們的精準農業全球銷售額提高到 20 億美元;第三,專注於加速我們的全球零件業務,增加 AGCO 原廠零件的市場份額,實現約 23 億美元的全球銷售額。

  • AGCO's continued strong investment in R&D has been recognized by numerous global organizations with awards and illustrates how we innovate to put farmers first. On slide 7, you'll see a few of the products that have won prestigious awards recently, each aim to help farmers improve their profitability through lower costs or increased yields, while also focusing on the ease of use and operator comfort.

    AGCO 在研發方面持續的大力投資得到了許多全球組織的認可和獎項,並體現了我們如何創新並將農民放在第一位。在第 7 張投影片上,您將看到一些最近獲得著名獎項的產品,每種產品都旨在幫助農民透過降低成本或提高產量來提高獲利能力,同時也注重易用性和操作者的舒適度。

  • The first is our PTx Trimble OutRun retrofit autonomy kit, which was awarded the esteemed Davidson Prise for the absolute most innovative products of the year. OutRun is the first commercially available autonomous retrofit green cart solution on the market, and is recognized for its ability to help farmers maximize yield and combat the labor shortage many farmers are facing around the world.

    第一款是我們的 PTx Trimble OutRun 改裝自主套件,它被授予尊貴的戴維森年度最具創新性產品獎。OutRun 是市場上第一個可商業化的自主改造綠色推車解決方案,因其能夠幫助農民最大限度地提高產量和應對世界各地許多農民面臨的勞動力短缺問題而受到認可。

  • This is just the first of several retrofit autonomous solutions being developed by the PTx team. The Valtra S Series, which was the brand's flagship product, has won three major design awards in just a few months since launch. A good design award, an iF Design Award and now the prestigious Red Dot Award for product design. This hat-trick has never before been achieved by any tractor brand.

    這只是 PTx 團隊正在開發的幾種改造自主解決方案中的第一個。作為品牌的旗艦產品,Valtra S系列自推出以來短短幾個月內就獲得了三個重要設計獎。優秀設計獎、一項 iF 設計獎,以及現在享有盛名的產品設計紅點獎。此前還沒有任何拖拉機品牌實現過這樣的帽子戲法。

  • Red Dot judges were so impressed with the S-Series design and attention to user experience that they awarded the tractor the Red Dot Best of the Best award. This special recognition is the highest distinction in the competition, and is only awarded to the truly pioneering designs.

    紅點評審對 S 系列的設計和對用戶體驗的關注印象深刻,因此他們授予該拖拉機“紅點最佳獎”。這項特殊認可是比賽中的最高榮譽,僅授予真正具有開創性的設計。

  • Finally, the Massey Ferguson 5M Series Tractor was awarded with its own Red Dot Award for product design. This affordable and versatile tractor was recognized by judges for its straightforward and accessible features, high performance and efficiency with the best value for price. I want to take a moment to thank the teams that earn these awards, helping AGCO deliver on our vision of being farmers' trusted partner for industry-leading smart farming solutions.

    最終,麥賽福格森5M系列拖拉機榮獲紅點產品設計獎。這款價格實惠、用途廣泛的拖拉機因其簡單易用的功能、高性能和高效率以及最佳的價格而受到評審的認可。我想花點時間感謝獲得這些獎項的團隊,幫助 AGCO 實現我們的願景,成為農民信賴的行業領先智慧農業解決方案合作夥伴。

  • Now, I'll hand it over to Damon to walk you through some of the financials for the quarter.

    現在,我將把話題交給達蒙,讓他向大家介紹本季的一些財務狀況。

  • Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Slide 8 provides an overview of regional net sales performance for the first quarter. Net sales were down approximately 25% in the first quarter compared to the first quarter of 2024 when excluding the negative effect of currency translation and the positive impact of acquisitions.

    謝謝你,艾瑞克,大家早安。投影片 8 概述了第一季區域淨銷售業績。若排除貨幣換算的負面影響和收購的正面影響,第一季淨銷售額與 2024 年第一季相比下降了約 25%。

  • For comparison purposes, the impact of the divestiture of the grain and protein business, which was approximately $200 million in Q1 of 2024 has also been excluded. Pricing in the quarter was roughly flat compared to the first quarter of 2024.

    為了進行比較,2024 年第一季剝離穀物和蛋白質業務的影響(約 2 億美元)也被排除在外。本季的價格與 2024 年第一季相比基本持平。

  • Positive pricing in North America mostly offset negative pricing in South America and in Europe. By region, the Europe/Middle East segment reported sales down roughly 23% in the quarter compared to the strong results in the same period in 2024, excluding the impact of unfavorable currency translation and favorable impact of acquisitions.

    北美的正定價基本上抵消了南美和歐洲的負定價。按地區劃分,歐洲/中東地區本季銷售額與 2024 年同期的強勁業績相比下降了約 23%,這還不包括不利的貨幣換算影響和收購的有利影響。

  • Sales were lower across most of the Western European markets, partially offset by growth in Spain and Eastern Europe. The products showing the most significant declines were high horsepower and mid-range tractors as well as hay equipment. South American net sales decreased approximately 6%, excluding the impact of unfavorable currency translation and the favorable impact of acquisitions.

    西歐大部分市場的銷售額均有所下降,但西班牙和東歐的銷售額成長部分抵消了這一下降。下降最為顯著的產品是大馬力和中檔拖拉機以及乾草設備。不計不利貨幣換算的影響和收購的有利影響,南美淨銷售額下降約 6%。

  • The market for larger equipment continues to be challenged, and we continue to underproduce relative to retail demand. Lower sales of high horsepower tractors and planters accounted for most of the decline. Net sales in the North American region decreased approximately 34%, excluding the impact of unfavorable currency translation and the favorable impacts of acquisitions. Softer industry sales and underproduction relative to end market demand contributed to lower sales. High-horsepower tractors, sprayers and combines saw the largest declines.

    大型設備市場持續面臨挑戰,我們的產量仍無法滿足零售需求。大馬力拖拉機和播種機銷量下降是銷售量下降的主要原因。不計不利貨幣換算的影響和收購的有利影響,北美地區的淨銷售額下降了約34%。相對於終端市場需求,產業銷售疲軟和產量不足導致銷售下降。大馬力拖拉機、噴霧器和聯合收割機的降幅最大。

  • Net sales in Asia Pacific, Africa decreased 38%, excluding the favorable currency translation impacts and the favorable impact of acquisitions due to weaker end market demand and lower production volumes. The most significant declines occurred in Australia, Japan and China.

    亞太、非洲地區的淨銷售額下降了 38%,不包括有利的貨幣轉換影響以及由於終端市場需求疲軟和產量下降而產生的收購的有利影響。降幅最大的是澳洲、日本和中國。

  • Finally, consolidated replacement part sales were approximately $433 million for the first quarter, flat year over year on a reported basis and up approximately 3% year over year when excluding the effect of unfavorable currency translation. Turning to slide 9. The first-quarter adjusted operating margin was 4.1%, a decline of 550 basis points compared to the first quarter of 2024.

    最後,第一季綜合替換零件銷售額約為 4.33 億美元,以報告基礎計算與去年同期持平,若排除不利貨幣換算的影響則較去年同期成長約 3%。翻到第 9 張投影片。第一季調整後營業利益率為 4.1%,較 2024 年第一季下降 550 個基點。

  • The weak industry conditions are resulting in significantly higher costs related to factory under absorption and higher discounts. By region, the Europe/Middle East segment income from operations decreased by $141 million and operating margins decreased to just over 11%.

    產業狀況疲軟導致工廠吸收相關成本大幅增加以及折扣增加。按地區劃分,歐洲/中東地區營業收入減少 1.41 億美元,營業利潤率下降至略高於 11%。

  • The lower margins resulted from reduced sales volume, factory under absorption and increased discounts. North American income from operations in the quarter decreased approximately $48 million year over year, and operating margins were negative in the first quarter. Lower sales from weak market conditions and lower production hours were the primary drivers for the lower operating margins year over year.

    利潤率下降是由於銷售量下降、工廠產能不足、折扣增加所造成的。本季北美營業收入年減約 4,800 萬美元,第一季營業利潤率為負。市場疲軟導致的銷售額下降以及生產時間減少是導致營業利潤率較去年同期下降的主要原因。

  • Operating income in South America decreased by approximately $10 million in Q1 of 2025 versus Q1 of 2024, and operating margins remained positive in the quarter at roughly 1%. Market conditions in the region have continued to remain weak, and we have reacted with significant production cuts now for six consecutive quarters.

    2025 年第一季度,南美地區的營業收入與 2024 年第一季相比減少了約 1,000 萬美元,本季營業利潤率仍為正,約 1%。該地區的市場狀況持續疲軟,我們已連續六季大幅減產。

  • Income from operations in our Asia Pacific/Africa segment decreased by approximately $12 million due to the lower sales volumes. Slide 10 shows our year over year free cash flow. As a reminder, free cash flow represents cash used in or provided by operating activities less purchases of property, plant and equipment.

    由於銷售量下降,我們亞太/非洲部門的營業收入減少了約 1,200 萬美元。投影片 10 顯示了我們逐年成長的自由現金流。提醒一下,自由現金流代表經營活動所用或提供的現金減去購買的財產、廠房和設備。

  • Free cash flow conversion is defined as free cash flow divided by adjusted net income. We used $260 million of cash in the first quarter of 2025, approximately $205 million or 44% less than the first quarter of 2024, primarily related to improved working capital and lower capital expenditures.

    自由現金流轉換定義為自由現金流除以調整後的淨收入。我們在 2025 年第一季使用了 2.6 億美元現金,比 2024 年第一季減少了約 2.05 億美元或 44%,這主要與改善營運資金和降低資本支出有關。

  • For the full-year, we anticipate our free cash flow to be in the targeted range of 75% to 100% of adjusted net income. Our capital allocation plan includes reinvesting back into our business, repaying debt to maintain our investment-grade credit ratings and rewarding investors with direct returns with our regular quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share. We remain focused on deploying capital in the most effective ways for the benefits of our shareholders.

    我們預計全年自由現金流將達到調整後淨收入的 75% 至 100% 的目標範圍。我們的資本配置計劃包括重新投資於我們的業務,償還債務以維持我們的投資級信用評級,並透過每股 0.29 美元的常規季度股息向投資者提供直接回報。我們始終致力於以最有效的方式配置資本,為股東謀福利。

  • Slide 11 highlights our current 2025 market forecast for our three major regions. All three regions have changed modestly from what we communicated on our fourth-quarter call. For North America, we expect demand to be meaningfully lower in 2025 compared to 2024.

    投影片 11 重點介紹了我們對三大地區目前 2025 年市場的預測。與我們在第四季度電話會議上傳達的情況相比,這三個地區的情況都發生了輕微變化。對於北美,我們預計 2025 年的需求將比 2024 年大幅下降。

  • Despite net farm income forecast revising higher related to government aid, farmers are delaying equipment purchases due to still elevated input costs and uncertain export demand causing tighter profit margins. We now expect the large ag segment to be down around 25% to 30% versus 2024, which is a marginal deterioration from our prior forecast.

    儘管受政府援助影響,農場淨收入預測上調,但由於投入成本仍然較高且出口需求不確定,導致利潤率收緊,農民仍在推遲購買設備。我們現在預計,大型農業部門的銷售額將比 2024 年下降約 25% 至 30%,這比我們先前的預測略有下降。

  • The small tractor segment is expected to be down between 0% to 5% after several years of significant decline. For Western Europe, we expect the industry to be down approximately 5% compared to our prior forecast of down 0% to 5%.

    經過幾年的大幅下滑,小型拖拉機市場預計將下降 0% 至 5%。對於西歐,我們預計該行業將下降約 5%,而我們先前預測的下降幅度為 0% 至 5%。

  • Weak production has been negatively impacted by persistent rain and poor growing conditions. Decreased commodity prices and elevated input costs are also pressuring farm income. For Brazil, after the significant decline we saw in 2024, we now expect the market to be up 0% to 5% versus our prior forecast of the industry being flat year over year. Farmer optimism around healthy soybean yields in the Midwest, and the expectation for farmers to expand global share in key commodities due to trade policies is expected to support retail demand for tractors.

    持續的降雨和惡劣的生長條件對產量產生了負面影響。商品價格下跌和投入成本上升也給農場收入帶來壓力。對於巴西,在經歷了 2024 年的大幅下滑之後,我們現在預計市場將上漲 0% 至 5%,而我們之前預測該行業將同比持平。農民對中西部大豆產量健康的樂觀態度,以及農民因貿易政策而擴大主要商品全球份額的預期,預計將支持拖拉機的零售需求。

  • Slide 12 shows our primary assumptions used in our current 2025 outlook. We continue to anticipate the 2025 global industry demand to be approximately 85% of mid-cycle. Our sales plan includes market share gains and pricing in the 1% range, which is up from the flat to 1% range communicated on our fourth-quarter call.

    投影片 12 展示了我們目前 2025 年展望中使用的主要假設。我們持續預測 2025 年全球產業需求將達到中期週期的約 85%。我們的銷售計劃包括市佔率成長和 1% 範圍內的定價,高於我們第四季電話會議上傳達的持平至 1% 範圍內的定價。

  • Additionally, based on the weakening of the US dollar, our expectation now is for no foreign currency impact in 2025 versus 2024, which has been revised up from the 3% foreign currency headwind we had communicated previously.

    此外,基於美元走弱,我們現在預計 2025 年不會受到外匯影響,而 2024 年則不會,這比我們之前傳達的 3% 的外匯逆風有所上調。

  • Tariffs are creating significant demand uncertainty and increased cost for us. Our current full-year guidance takes into consideration only the tariffs currently in effect across the company's global markets and our anticipated plans to mitigate them through potential pricing actions or cost mitigation actions.

    關稅給我們帶來了巨大的需求不確定性並增加了成本。我們目前的全年指導僅考慮了公司全球市場目前有效的關稅以及我們預計透過潛在定價行動或成本緩解行動來緩解這些關稅的計劃。

  • That said, the potential for retaliatory measures or additional US tariffs, particularly targeting the EU, could influence our current outlook. We're closely monitoring these developments and remain nimble in our approach.

    儘管如此,美國採取報復措施或徵收額外關稅(尤其是針對歐盟)的可能性可能會影響我們目前的前景。我們正在密切關注這些事態發展,並採取靈活措施。

  • We will update our outlook, if necessary, as the situation evolves. Engineering expenses are expected to be approximately flat compared to 2024. With the continued need to destock the dealer inventory channel, our production hours will be down 15% to 20% in 2025, as Eric mentioned earlier.

    如果情況有變,我們將根據需要更新我們的展望。預計工程費用與 2024 年相比基本持平。正如 Eric 之前提到的,由於需要持續減少經銷商庫存通路的庫存,到 2025 年我們的生產時間將下降 15% 至 20%。

  • These production cuts will be primarily focused in the first half of 2025, with the second quarter down 15% to 20%. With this lower level of sales and production in 2025, and despite geopolitical trade conflicts, we still expect our adjusted operating margin to be between 7% and 7.5%.

    此次減產主要集中在2025年上半年,第二季減產幅度將達15%至20%。儘管存在地緣政治貿易衝突,但鑑於 2025 年的銷售和生產水準較低,我們仍預計調整後的營業利潤率將在 7% 至 7.5% 之間。

  • With the structural changes we have made to our business, coupled with the cost initiatives we've implemented, we continue to view this outlook as achievable. We are still projecting 2025 to be the bottom of the trough.

    透過對業務進行結構性調整,加上我們實施的成本控制舉措,我們仍然認為這一前景是可以實現的。我們仍預測 2025 年將是谷底。

  • Our current adjusted operating margins projections is approximately 300 to 350 basis points above AGCO's performance at the last trough in 2016 due to the structural transformation that has been implemented across the company. Lastly, our effective tax rate is now anticipated to be approximately 35% for 2025, which is at the lower end of the 30% to 35% range previously communicated. Turning to slide 13 for our 2025 outlook.

    由於公司實施了結構轉型,我們目前調整後的營業利潤率預測比 2016 年愛科上次低谷時的表現高出約 300 至 350 個基點。最後,我們目前預計 2025 年的有效稅率約為 35%,處於先前公佈的 30% 至 35% 範圍的低端。翻到第 13 張投影片,了解我們對 2025 年的展望。

  • Our projected net sales, capital spending and free cash flow targets remain unchanged from those communicated at the start of the year. Our full-year net sales outlook is $9.6 billion, which reflects the market environment, the weaker US dollar, the elimination of the grain and protein sales and the softer demand resulting from the announced tariffs across the company's global markets, net of our planned mitigation actions. Our 2025 earnings per share remain in the $4 to $4.50 range. These full-year estimates reflect the projected impact of tariffs in place as of May 1, 2025, along with our planned mitigation actions.

    我們預期的淨銷售額、資本支出和自由現金流目標與年初公佈的目標保持不變。我們對全年淨銷售額的預期為 96 億美元,這反映了市場環境、美元走弱、穀物和蛋白質銷售的取消以及公司全球市場宣布的關稅導致的需求疲軟(扣除我們計劃的緩解措施)。我們的 2025 年每股盈餘仍將在 4 美元至 4.50 美元之間。這些全年預測反映了截至 2025 年 5 月 1 日實施的關稅的預期影響以及我們計劃採取的緩解措施。

  • Changes to the tariffs or other actions in response to them could result in a change to these estimates. Given the weaker market environment, our estimated CapEx spending continues to be approximately $375 million versus the $393 million in 2024, which keeps AGCO well positioned for any future demand inflections.

    關稅的變化或採取的其他應對措施可能會導致這些估計值發生變化。鑑於市場環境較弱,我們估計資本支出仍約為 3.75 億美元,而 2024 年為 3.93 億美元,這使 AGCO 能夠為未來的需求變化做好準備。

  • Our free cash flow conversion target remains 75% to 100% of adjusted net income as we look to further reduce working capital in 2025. Lastly, our Q2 2025 net sales are expected to be approximately $2.5 billion. If you were to exclude grain & protein sales from the Q2 2024, our sales will be down roughly 17% on a like-for-like basis.

    我們的自由現金流轉換目標仍然是調整後淨收入的 75% 至 100%,因為我們希望在 2025 年進一步減少營運資本。最後,我們預計 2025 年第二季的淨銷售額約為 25 億美元。如果將 2024 年第二季的穀物和蛋白質銷售額排除在外,我們的銷售額將年減約 17%。

  • Given the lower sales volumes and significant reduction in production hours again, we anticipate Q2 earnings per share to be in the $1 to $1.10 range. On slide 14, you can see the details of our 2025 tech days in October of Germany, where we will provide a Fendt factory torque and product experience on September 30, followed by field demonstrations on October 1. We hope you will join us, and we look forward to seeing you there.

    鑑於銷售量下降和生產時間再次大幅減少,我們預計第二季每股收益將在 1 美元至 1.10 美元之間。在第 14 張幻燈片上,您可以看到我們 2025 年 10 月在德國舉辦的技術日的詳細信息,我們將於 9 月 30 日提供 Fendt 工廠扭矩和產品體驗,隨後於 10 月 1 日進行現場演示。我們希望您能加入我們,並期待在那裡見到您。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to the operator to begin the Q&A.

    說完這些,我將把電話轉給接線生開始問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

    我們現在開始問答環節。(操作員指示)

  • Jamie Cook, Truist. Please go ahead.

    傑米·庫克(Jamie Cook),Truist。請繼續。

  • Jamie Cook - Analyst

    Jamie Cook - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. I guess my first question, the first quarter came in better than you guys had expected. I think you were guiding to break even in an adjusted basis. You came in at $0.41, so Damon just any color and where you perform better versus what you would have thought.

    嗨,早安。我的第一個問題是,第一季的表現比你們預期的要好。我認為您是在以調整後的基礎來指導收支平衡。您的出價為 0.41 美元,因此 Damon 只是任何顏色,並且您的表現會比您想像的更好。

  • And then I guess my second question, just a little more color on tariffs and the actions you're taking to mitigate tariffs, I guess one. Can you talk to your order book? Is there any risk in your order book associated with tariffs, sort of the price increases that you're talking about and, actions you're taking? I don't know if you can put a dollar amount on that because it's impressive you are still, maintaining your guide. Thank you.

    然後我想我的第二個問題是,稍微詳細地談談關稅以及你們為降低關稅所採取的行動,我想是的。你能和你的訂單簿談談嗎?您的訂單中是否存在與關稅、您所說的價格上漲以及您正在採取的行動相關的風險?我不知道您是否可以為此確定一個金額,因為令人印象深刻的是,您仍然保持自己的指導方針。謝謝。

  • Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. Sure, Jamie. So you're right, we did do better in our -- in the first quarter than what we had originally expected. I think there's probably two items or two different categories, but I think at the operational side of the house the teams did a little bit better in pricing and mix was stronger, especially in our European operations. And then as you heard us talk last year about our cost control actions, we're starting to see those we're a little bit ahead of schedule in what we dropped to the bottom line.

    是的。當然,傑米。所以你說得對,第一季我們的表現確實比我們原先預期的要好。我認為可能有兩種產品或兩種不同的類別,但我認為在營運方面,團隊在定價方面做得更好一些,而且產品組合更強大,尤其是在我們的歐洲業務中。然後,正如您去年聽到我們談論我們的成本控制措施時所說,我們開始看到我們在控製成本方面比計劃稍微提前了一點。

  • So I think price mix and costs were a little bit better. We did cut production a little bit more in the quarter than what we had originally guided to. So that was a little bit negative of a headwind. So when I look at those categories operationally, I'd say that was about $0.25 of a positive versus our outlook.

    所以我認為價格組合和成本會好一些。本季我們的產量削減幅度確實比原先預期的要大一些。所以這有點不利的逆風。因此,當我從操作角度看待這些類別時,我會說這與我們的前景相比大約是 0.25 美元的正數。

  • And then we did better below the line. So if you look at the foreign currency gain and losses, we had some lower discounting of receivables. So those other below-the-line items were about $0.20, and that's what brought us to the $0.41 for the quarter. As we think about your question on tariffs, as we've said, we are looking at what is in effect to date. We have assumed some modest price increases.

    然後我們在這條線下做得更好了。因此,如果你看外匯收益和損失,你會發現我們的應收帳款折扣較低。因此,其他低於標準的項目約為 0.20 美元,這就是本季的 0.41 美元。正如我們所說,當我們思考您關於關稅的問題時,我們正在研究迄今為止的實際情況。我們預期價格會適度上漲。

  • We have already had some in effect for our parts operations -- or parts products, excuse me. Those have already been in effect. We are contemplating things on equipment. In that, though, we have also assumed that to the extent we do take pricing actions, there would be an incremental slowdown to the North American business. We have not factored that into our industry outlook is we're not sure whether that would be unique to AGCO or whether that would affect the industry.

    我們的零件業務-或者說零件產品,已經取得了一些成效。這些已經生效。我們正在考慮設備方面的事情。不過,我們也假設,如果我們採取定價行動,北美業務將會逐漸放緩。我們尚未將此納入我們的行業展望中,因為我們不確定這是否是 AGCO 獨有的,或者是否會影響整個行業。

  • And when we look at those two things together, we see the price net of the lower North American volume as a net negative on sales. I would say it's about less than 1% of total company revenues, and it's a negative to earnings per share. And if I look at that, that's about a $0.30 headwind related to the -- to our business here in our current outlook that we've embedded in our outlook.

    當我們將這兩件事放在一起看時,我們會發現扣除北美銷售較低之後的價格對銷售額來說是淨負面影響。我想說這大約不到公司總收入的 1%,而且對每股盈餘有負面影響。如果我看一下,就會發現,這對我們目前的業務來說大約是 0.30 美元的逆風,我們已經將其嵌入到我們的展望中。

  • Order boards, as you know, order boards have been coming down as we came out of the supply chain challenges. Right now, as we sit here in North America, we're somewhere in the range of four to five months of orders depending on the product.

    如您所知,隨著我們擺脫供應鏈挑戰,訂單板一直在下降。目前,我們在北美,根據產品的不同,我們的訂單量大約在四到五個月之間。

  • So again, the -- any actions will likely have an effect on pricing later on in the year given the current order board that we see. Other actions we're taking on tariffs. Again, we talk about potentially implementing some prices for equipment.

    所以,根據我們看到的當前訂單情況,任何行動都可能對今年稍後的定價產生影響。我們在關稅方面正在採取的其他行動。再次,我們討論可能實施一些設備定價。

  • We already have prices in effect for parts. As I've mentioned on other calls, we are looking to mitigate some of these costs where possible. Some of the products that we brought in from Europe, we're looking at things like bonded warehouses now to minimize the price effects of what would happen in Canada.

    我們已經有了零件的實際價格。正如我在其他電話會議中提到的那樣,我們正在盡可能地降低部分成本。對於我們從歐洲進口的一些產品,我們正在考慮建立保稅倉庫等方式,以盡量減少加拿大市場價格受到的影響。

  • And obviously, we're having active discussions with our suppliers as to how do we help mitigate the costs we have to absorb in actions that they can take to try to dampen the overall impact to AGCO. So I think like most large industrials, we're pulling every lever out there, we're working with advisers is what they may be hearing and seeing others doing to make sure that we're looking at all of these different options to mitigate the cost given the dynamic situation we're in right now.

    顯然,我們正在與供應商進行積極討論,探討如何幫助他們減輕我們必須承擔的成本,以試圖減輕對 AGCO 的整體影響。因此,我認為,與大多數大型工業企業一樣,我們正在竭盡全力,與顧問合作,他們可能會聽到並看到其他人在做什麼,以確保我們正在考慮所有這些不同的選擇,以在當前動態情況下降低成本。

  • Jamie Cook - Analyst

    Jamie Cook - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kyle Menges, Citigroup. Please go ahead.

    花旗集團的凱爾孟格斯 (Kyle Menges)。請繼續。

  • Kyle Menges - Analyst

    Kyle Menges - Analyst

  • Thank you. So I know Damon, you called out just the EME margins, particularly strong in the quarter, at least partly driven by mix. So I guess the question is really just around the sustainability of the EME margins and just how do we think about the risks of a potential mix shift from Fendt to maybe the other brands and just how to think about mixed impacts on EME margins how to think about that for the rest of the year and then maybe in the kind of medium term?

    謝謝。所以我知道達蒙,你提到了新興市場和中東地區的利潤率,本季尤其強勁,至少部分是由混合驅動的。所以我想問題實際上只是圍繞著 EME 利潤率的可持續性,以及我們如何看待從 Fendt 到其他品牌的潛在組合轉變的風險,以及如何看待對 EME 利潤率的混合影響,如何看待今年剩餘時間以及可能的中期影響?

  • Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. I think overall, Kyle, the European market, again, reminding for the group, is the most stable of all of our three major markets given the level of subsidies in that market. It's historically been the most stable and predictable.

    是的。凱爾,我認為總體而言,歐洲市場是我們三大市場中最穩定的市場,考慮到該市場的補貼水準。從歷史上看,它是最穩定和最可預測的。

  • And so that part of the world, at least thus far has been relatively solid for us. If you think about what we've been seeing here, there's somewhat of a sense of a flight to quality as farmers are on the fringes who are less profitable.

    因此,至少到目前為止,世界的這一部分對我們來說是相對穩固的。如果你想想我們在這裡看到的情況,你會發現有點追求品質的感覺,因為農民處於邊緣,利潤較低。

  • Think about them likely buying more of our volume-orientated brands. And so Fendt has continued to do well in gaining significant market share over the last one year. Fendt has done exceptionally well in gaining share whether that's through some of the new product introductions or some of the next-generation products. And the portfolio of new products coming out for Fendt is still pretty rich as we look over the next couple of years. And so again, you've heard us say this before, but Fendt is the best of the best.

    想想看,他們可能會購買更多我們以銷售為導向的品牌。因此,芬特在過去一年中繼續保持良好勢頭,並獲得了顯著的市場份額。無論是透過推出一些新產品還是推出一些下一代產品,芬特在獲得市場份額方面都做得非常出色。展望未來幾年,芬特推出的新產品組合仍相當豐富。所以,您可能之前聽過我們這麼說,但芬特 (Fendt) 是最好的。

  • It's driving the latest innovation, the best fuel efficiency out there. And so as farmers are really challenged on their profitability, they're looking for ways to minimize their input costs, maximize their output and their yield and Fendt delivers on that in the products that they're offering.

    它推動著最新的創新,具有最佳的燃油效率。因此,當農民在盈利能力方面面臨真正的挑戰時,他們正在尋找方法來最大限度地降低投入成本,最大限度地提高產出和收益,而芬特透過他們提供的產品實現了這一點。

  • So I don't see necessarily Fendt eroding in exchange for another product or another brand. But what you may see is if the economy recovers and some of these more volume orientated brands start to outpace in a recovery mode, it may have a little bit of effect, but I don't see that changing the overall EME margins significantly from what you've been seeing us perform over the last couple of quarters.

    因此,我認為芬特不一定會因為其他產品或品牌而受到蠶食。但您可能會看到,如果經濟復甦,並且一些更注重銷售的品牌開始在復甦模式下領先,這可能會產生一點影響,但我認為,與過去幾個季度的表現相比,整體新興市場和中東地區的利潤率不會發生顯著變化。

  • Kyle Menges - Analyst

    Kyle Menges - Analyst

  • That's helpful. Thank you. And then I think it'd also be helpful just to get some sense of what Trimble top line and margins look like in the quarter, like were margins or positive, and then just how should we be thinking about as you start lapping that CNH dealer stock up that we saw just what are you seeing now in terms of the dealer inventories and order trends from those dealers.

    這很有幫助。謝謝。然後,我認為了解 Trimble 本季度的營業收入和利潤率情況(例如利潤率是正數還是負數)也會有所幫助,然後,當您開始盤點 CNH 經銷商庫存時,我們應該如何考慮我們現在看到的經銷商庫存和來自這些經銷商的訂單趨勢。

  • Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. So I'll touch on maybe the numbers, and I'll let Eric talk about what he's seeing specifically related to some of the dealers and the products here. But if you remember, we did not have PTx Trimble in the portfolio here in the first quarter. So our overall PTx revenue, that's incremental. Sales for that part of the business were just over $60 million in the quarter.

    是的。因此,我可能會談到數字,然後讓 Eric 談談他所看到的與這裡的一些經銷商和產品具體相關的情況。但如果您還記得的話,我們第一季的投資組合中並沒有 PTx Trimble。因此,我們的整體 PTx 收入是增量的。本季該部分業務的銷售額略高於 6,000 萬美元。

  • And if you remember what Trimble would have announced, it was a little bit over $80 million. That did include AGCO-related sales. So down a little bit, not too different than the overall industry, so very much in line.

    如果你還記得 Trimble 宣布的金額,那麼這個數字略高於 8000 萬美元。這確實包括與 AGCO 相關的銷售。因此,下降了一點,但與整個行業沒有太大區別,所以非常一致。

  • So we're feeling pretty good about what we're seeing relative to the industry dynamics, but Eric can talk about what we're seeing with the CNH channel and some of the other AGCO dealer channels that we're bringing on board right now.

    因此,我們對所看到的行業動態感到非常滿意,但 Eric 可以談談我們在 CNH 通路以及我們目前正在引入的一些其他 AGCO 經銷商通路中看到的情況。

  • Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. The main focus we've got is establishing the channel of the future, and that's ramping up our AGCO dealers to also take on the PTx contract. From where we were at the end of 2024 until today, we have about tripled the amount of industry coverage that we've got covered by AGCO dealers that also carry PTx.

    是的。我們的主要重點是建立未來的通路,那就是加強 AGCO 經銷商的承接 PTx 合約。從 2024 年底到今天,我們的產業覆蓋範圍大約是 AGCO 經銷商(也銷售 PTx)的三倍。

  • We expect that the bulk of that work and to be done by the end of the second quarter, we'll have most of the large-sized dealers signed up. And so that channel is our most urgent to get activated and it's underway in a good way.

    我們預計大部分工作將在第二季末完成,屆時大多數大型經銷商將簽約。因此,我們最迫切需要啟動該管道,而且目前該管道的進展良好。

  • Second topic is utilizing Trimble technology on AGCO products. We started -- when we launched the JV a year ago, we were at about 20% take rate. We got it to about 70% take rate at the end of 2024, and now we're more like 90% take rate, which is about where we think it will stabilize because there will always be niches that we may still provide other brands. But -- so that's fundamentally well in place. And we think that the last time buy of the CNH made just prior to the deal closing is getting closer to being exhausted.

    第二個主題是在 AGCO 產品上運用 Trimble 技術。我們開始——當我們一年前成立合資企業時,我們的接受率約為 20%。到 2024 年底,我們的接受率達到了 70% 左右,現在我們的接受率更接近 90%,我們認為這個水平將會穩定下來,因為總會有我們可能仍會為其他品牌提供的利基市場。但是 — — 從根本上來說,這是很到位的。我們認為,交易結束前最後一次購買離岸人民幣的勢頭已接近枯竭。

  • And so that should no longer be a headwind to the overall business. So feeling very good about first-quarter acceleration of channel readiness as well as the cross-selling activity in the full line tech channel. I talked about the AGCO dealers. Those are the machinery dealers that sell planters, sprayers, combines and so on that also sell PTx. But then we've got this unique.

    因此,這不再會成為整體業務的阻力。因此,對於第一季通路準備的加速以及全線技術通路的交叉銷售活動感到非常高興。我談到了 AGCO 經銷商。這些是銷售播種機、噴霧器、聯合收割機等機械的經銷商,同時也銷售 PTx。但後來我們得到了這個獨特的東西。

  • We're the only ones in the industry that have a full-line tech channel and all the sellers technology, those are either former Trimble dealers or former precision planting dealers that are going to sell the full portfolio. And we're working on cross-selling -- helping those dealers be capable and proficient at cross-selling the entire line. That will -- that's taking hold this year. It will be a little bit longer runway on that because it's a little bit more complicated. But we feel like we're on pace with that as well.

    我們是業內唯一擁有全系列技術通路和所有賣家技術的公司,這些賣家要么是前 Trimble 經銷商,要么是前精準播種經銷商,他們將銷售全套產品。我們正在致力於交叉銷售——幫助這些經銷商有能力並且熟練地進行整個產品線的交叉銷售。這將在今年生效。由於情況稍微複雜一些,這條跑道會稍微長一些。但我們感覺我們也在同步推進。

  • Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And then kind of wrapping up on the profitability. PTx Trimble was profitable for us in the quarter, not to the levels we want it just yet. But again, as we talked in the past, given the lower levels of volume the high incrementals and decrementals there. We know we need to get volume back in, but we were profitable here for the first quarter. So a good start to the year with the PTx Trimble team.

    然後總結一下盈利能力。PTx Trimble 在本季度為我們帶來了利潤,但尚未達到我們期望的水平。但是,正如我們過去談到的,由於交易量較低,因此增量和減量較高。我們知道我們需要恢復銷量,但第一季我們就已經獲利了。與 PTx Trimble 團隊一起迎來了新的一年,這是一個很好的開始。

  • Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Maybe one more comment because I imagine that there's other questions on other people's mind. So I'll just say we reorganized the leadership team of the PTx business in quarter four where we had PTx Trimble as the JV and Precision Planting along with the other tech companies that we had bought.

    也許還有一則評論,因為我想其他人心中還有其他問題。所以我只想說,我們在第四季度重組了 PTx 業務的領導團隊,其中我們擁有 PTx Trimble 作為合資企業和 Precision Planting 以及我們收購的其他科技公司。

  • We blended all that together, melted together into one global PTx leadership team. And with that, in quarter one, we've seen a significant acceleration in the synergies, both within PTx, ideas of revenue synergies and cost synergies as well as with PTx to AGCO. So that's the other element that we were committed to getting done, and we found a nice acceleration in quarter one.

    我們將所有這些融合在一起,形成一個全球 PTx 領導團隊。由此,在第一季度,我們看到了協同效應的顯著加速,包括 PTx 內部的收入協同效應和成本協同效應,以及 PTx 與 AGCO 之間的協同效應。這是我們致力於完成的另一個要素,我們發現第一季取得了良好的加速。

  • Kyle Menges - Analyst

    Kyle Menges - Analyst

  • Really helpful. Thank you guys.

    真的很有幫助。謝謝你們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

    克里斯汀歐文,奧本海默。

  • Kristen Owen - Analyst

    Kristen Owen - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thank you for taking the question. I wanted to follow up on some of what Jamie touched on in her question, and just make sure I understand the mechanics on the full-year guide. So you've got the Q1 top line inline full year maintained, bottom line be by $0.40 full year maintained, but you've also lifted, some of the outlook for price for FX.

    早安.感謝您回答這個問題。我想跟進 Jamie 在她的問題中提到的一些內容,並確保我了解全年指南的機制。因此,第一季的營收與全年持平,全年利潤則維持在 0.40 美元,但同時,外匯價格前景也出現了一些上調。

  • So is it fair to think that your assumptions around tariffs are something on the order of the four points that you added to the top line. That could be a 4 percentage point headwind and similarly a 40% headwind on the bottom line. Sorry for the long winded question there, but I just want to make sure I understand the mechanics, and then I do have an unrelated follow up?

    那麼,是否可以公平地認為,您對關稅的假設與您在第一行添加的四點差不多。這可能會帶來 4 個百分點的不利影響,同樣也會對底線帶來 40% 的不利影響。抱歉,我問了這麼長的問題,但我只是想確保我理解其中的機制,然後我還有一個不相關的後續問題?

  • Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. I think -- so Kristen, maybe I'll do it by EPS or by earnings per share, just to keep it simple for me. Our guide was [4 to 4.50]. If I roll through the $0.40 beat directionally that we had in the first quarter. FOREIGN currency is a positive for us.

    是的。我認為——克莉絲汀,也許我會用每股盈餘或每股盈餘來做這件事,只是為了讓我簡單一點。我們的導遊是[4 到 4.50]。如果我按照第一季的 0.40 美元方向進行調整。外幣對我們來說是有利的。

  • As we said, we went from negative 3% to around flat. Think of that as probably directionally around a $0.40 pickup as well. We've taken the industry outlooks in North America and Europe down. Asia is also down. And so when I look at those industry dynamics, South America is up.

    正如我們所說,我們從-3% 變為持平。可以認為這大概也是 0.40 美元左右的上漲方向。我們下調了北美和歐洲的產業前景。亞洲也陷入下滑。因此,當我觀察這些產業動態時,我發現南美洲正在崛起。

  • That's around a $0.30 headwind for us. Tariff -- the net tariff impact to us. So pricing, coupled with that volume comment I made earlier, that's around $0.30, and then you've got some incremental negative absorption because of the industry changes.

    這對我們來說大約是 0.30 美元的逆風。關稅-對我們的淨關稅影響。因此定價,加上我之前所做的交易量評論,大約是 0.30 美元,然後由於行業變化,您會得到一些增量負面吸收。

  • We're still in the 15% to 20% hours cut, but that's because we're taking the industry down and we have the assumption in North America, we have some further absorption embedded in our numbers. So that's, that coupled with some other things is about another $0.10 or so.

    我們仍在削減 15% 到 20% 的工作時間,但那是因為我們正在讓整個產業陷入低迷,而且我們假設在北美,我們的數據中還會進一步吸收一些工作時間。所以,再加上一些其他的東西,大約是 0.10 美元左右。

  • Kristen Owen - Analyst

    Kristen Owen - Analyst

  • That's incredibly helpful. Thank you for that, Damon. And then I did want to ask, since you mentioned it in the prepared remarks as you typically do about your capital allocation strategy, just given the progress with your large shareholder and their decision not to stand for re-election, I'm wondering if you can maybe update us on what potential outcomes could look like there, and how that might influence your capital allocation going forward? Thank you.

    這非常有幫助。謝謝你,達蒙。然後我確實想問一下,既然您在準備好的評論中提到了這一點,就像您通常在談到您的資本配置策略時所做的那樣,考慮到您的大股東的進展以及他們決定不再競選連任,我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下可能出現的結果,以及這將如何影響您未來的資本配置?謝謝。

  • Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I'll take that one. We feel really good about the progress we've made in discussions with TAFE, and you've seen that that the Board seat that TAFE had is no longer in place, and so we've gone from 10 directors down to 9. And so you can kind of imagine that the overall discussions are pretty robust. We're not all the way done with them yet, but we're getting close. And we recognize that investors would like us to do share buybacks.

    是的,我要那個。我們對與 TAFE 的討論所取得的進展感到非常滿意,而且您已經看到 TAFE 的董事會席位不再存在,因此我們的董事人數從 10 人減少到了 9 人。因此你可以想像,整體討論是相當激烈的。我們還沒有完全完成它們,但已經很接近了。我們認識到投資者希望我們進行股票回購。

  • And because of that, we would like to do that as well. We've been constrained from doing them over the last several years because of that shareholder concentration. As you can imagine, that's part of our discussions, and we're trying to represent that on behalf of our investors. I can't see any specifics right now because the discussions aren't done, but I promise you that - that's certainly at the forefront of what we're trying to get accomplished. And as soon as we can share it, I promise you if we will.

    正因為如此,我們也想這樣做。由於股東集中,過去幾年我們一直無法這樣做。你可以想像,這是我們討論的一部分,我們正試圖代表我們的投資者表達這一點。由於討論尚未結束,我現在無法看到任何具體細節,但我向你們保證——這肯定是我們努力完成的首要任務。只要我們能夠分享,我保證我們會分享。

  • Kristen Owen - Analyst

    Kristen Owen - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

  • Jerry Revich - Analyst

    Jerry Revich - Analyst

  • Yes, hi, good morning, everyone, and nice quarter. Eric, I wanted to ask, if you folks looked at the scenario that I'm sure you've evaluated if you were to bring Fendt production into the US for the US market. What would that look like for AGCO?

    是的,大家早上好,這是一個愉快的季度。艾瑞克,我想問一下,如果你們考慮過將芬特產品引入美國市場並銷往美國的情況,我相信你們已經評估過了。對於 AGCO 來說,這會是什麼樣的情況?

  • What would the impact be on unit costs if you were to move in that direction? How long would that transition take? Can you just fill us in on that contingency plan, and how you folks have evaluated it, if it were to come down to it?

    如果朝這個方向發展,會對單位成本產生什麼影響?這個轉變需要多久?您能否向我們介紹一下應急計劃,以及如果真的需要的話,你們是如何評估它的?

  • Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. We've looked at that. We actually even looked at it before the tariffs. We look at it every year of our overall footprint and understand what market demand is looking like? And where is the best place to produce as exchange rates move and the volumes change and things like that.

    是的。我們已經看過了。事實上,我們甚至在關稅實施之前就研究過這個問題。我們每年都會關注我們的整體足跡,了解市場需求是什麼樣的?隨著匯率和產量的變化等因素,哪裡是最佳生產地點?

  • And we've been gaining market share nicely with Fendt in North and South America. So it's a natural thing that we do annually. I would say that for any of these footprint decisions, one of the things that we need to count on is a sustainable set of assumptions and that we can count on those for the long term. So right now, that environment doesn't exist. And so we're -- we've got a few different scenarios of what we might do.

    我們與芬特在北美和南美的市佔率一直在穩定成長。所以這是我們每年都會做的事情,很自然。我想說,對於任何這些足跡決策,我們需要依賴的事情之一就是一套可持續的假設,並且我們可以長期依賴這些假設。所以現在,那個環境並不存在。因此,我們對可能採取的措施有幾種不同的設想。

  • But as you can imagine, tractor production, especially involves a lot of machining capability, design the transmission and engine and powertrain particularly, but a lot of the castings take a lot of machining, machining or high capital good items. And so all the major players kind of centralize those into one spot for high horsepower production.

    但正如您所想像的,拖拉機的生產,尤其涉及大量的機械加工能力,特別是變速箱、發動機和動力傳動系統的設計,但許多鑄件需要大量的機械加工、機械加工或高資本的好產品。因此,所有主要參與者都將其集中到一個地方,以實現高馬力生產。

  • Now those -- that's for the components. To do final assembly, it's a little bit more flexible. So we've got options for different levels of how much vertical integration we would potentially do. We've got the sites selected and understand what the impact of the supply base. But right now, we're waiting until things stabilize.

    現在這些——這些是組件。進行最終組裝時,它會更加靈活一些。因此,我們可以針對不同層次選擇可能進行的垂直整合程度。我們已經選定了地點,並了解供應基地的影響。但現在,我們正在等待情況穩定下來。

  • We don't anticipate to make any real changes in manufacturing locations in the short term. Now we're working with our suppliers to move component production around because that's a little bit more flexible, but final production is something that we're holding off until things stabilize further.

    我們預計短期內不會對生產地點做出任何實質改變。現在,我們正在與供應商合作,轉移零件生產,因為這樣更加靈活,但最終生產是我們要等到情況進一步穩定後再進行的。

  • Jerry Revich - Analyst

    Jerry Revich - Analyst

  • Super. And then just to shift gears, and nice to hear progress about the Precision Ag reorganization and what that has meant for cross-selling. Can you just update us on your views on the legacy Trimble retrofit kit. You've got a competitor that's spoken publicly about making good headway in terms of launching that product at a lower upfront cost with subscription over time? What's the AGCO counterpoint to that offering?

    極好的。然後換個話題,很高興聽到有關精準農業重組的進展以及這對交叉銷售意味著什麼。您能否向我們介紹一下您對舊版 Trimble 改裝套件的看法。您的競爭對手是否公開表示,在以較低的前期成本和分期訂閱的方式推出該產品方面取得了良好進展?AGCO 對產品有何回應?

  • Are you folks in the market, the numbers that quoted earlier include potential lower ASP, but higher subscription value? Can you just talk about how you're thinking about the competitive landscape for --

    各位市場人士,先前引用的數字包括潛在的較低 ASP,但較高的訂閱價值嗎?可以談談你對競爭格局的看法嗎?--

  • Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. In fact, this week, we're launching the new latest and greatest guidance technology. We call it the NAV-960. That's just the new model number. It's at Agri show, and it's getting tremendous interest from the market down there.

    是的。事實上,本週我們將推出最新、最強大的導引技術。我們稱之為 NAV-960。這只是新型號。它出現在農業​​展覽會上,引起了當地市場的極大興趣。

  • In fact, the overall Agri show is very positive. We see ordering up across all of our brands, lots of interest, especially in Fendt, but across all three of our brands in South America. And then coming back to the technology, we've got PTx marketing and education embedded in each of our brand booths within the show as well as our PTx unique store. So PTx is playing a very strong position in the market, and we just rolled out the latest new technology. We're excited about the new 960.

    事實上,農業展會總體上非常積極。我們發現所有品牌的訂單都在增加,客戶興趣濃厚,尤其是芬特 (Fendt),但我們在南美的三個品牌的訂單都在增加。然後回到技術方面,我們在展會中的每個品牌展位以及我們獨特的 PTx 商店中都嵌入了 PTx 行銷和教育。因此,PTx 在市場上佔據著非常強勢的地位,我們剛剛推出了最新的技術。我們對新款 960 感到非常興奮。

  • As it relates to pricing, we have experimented with both full price on the hardware upfront and subscription-based pricing. And I think we're going to end up having a bit of a mix as it goes into the market, where depending on where we are in the world, we'll probably use different tools.

    至於定價,我們已經嘗試了硬體預付全價和基於訂閱的定價。我認為,當產品進入市場時,我們最終會採用一些混合方案,根據我們所在世界的位置,我們可能會使用不同的工具。

  • And it's really because we want to be the most farmer-focused company in the industry and serve those markets the way the farmers want to consume that technology. We recognize the value in subscription as it relates to our income statement, but we're trying to balance that with what farmers want to make sure that they're most productive in their operation. So I think you'll see a little bit of both.

    這確實是因為我們想成為業內最以農民為中心的公司,並以農民希望使用科技的方式服務這些市場。我們認識到訂閱的價值與我們的損益表相關,但我們正試圖在訂閱價值與農民希望確保他們在經營中發揮最高生產力的需求之間取得平衡。所以我認為你會看到兩者皆有。

  • Jerry Revich - Analyst

    Jerry Revich - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

    傑富瑞的史蒂芬·福爾克曼。

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning guys, Damon, I'm wondering if you can sort of mark us to market relative to your various cost cut programs? What have you achieved so far? What do you expect to achieve by year-end? Any changes in that outlook?

    嘿,大家早上好,達蒙,我想知道你是否可以根據你的各種成本削減計劃來對我們進行市場定價?到目前為止你取得了什麼成就?您希望在年底實現什麼目標?這種觀點有什麼改變嗎?

  • Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • No changes, Steve. I think we are on a very good pace. I think at the end of the first quarter, we've expensed somewhere in the range of around $160 million. And if you remember, our guide was somewhere in the range of $150 million to $200 million in total cost. So we're getting through the bulk of that has past us here. Savings-wise, we are, our guide was $100 million to $125 million. I feel very confident that we'll be exiting the year here at that level.

    沒有變化,史蒂夫。我認為我們的進展非常好。我認為在第一季末,我們的支出大約在 1.6 億美元左右。如果你還記得的話,我們的指導價格是總成本在 1.5 億美元到 2 億美元之間。因此,我們正在解決這裡已經發生的大部分問題。就儲蓄而言,我們的指導金額是 1 億至 1.25 億美元。我非常有信心,我們今年將以這樣的水平結束。

  • Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • (multiple speakers) It's been a time for our whole leadership team, Paul last year and into this year, we just had 2.5 days working on that. We've got a very detailed management approach to this, a whole working tool that tracks every project by date, by location. And so it's not a hope, it's a very detailed and well-managed program to deliver on that.

    (多位發言者)對於我們整個領導團隊來說,保羅,這是一個值得花時間討論的問題,從去年到今年,我們只花了 2.5 天的時間來處理這個問題。我們對此有一個非常詳細的管理方法,有一整套工作工具可以按日期和地點追蹤每個項目。所以這不是一個希望,而是一個非常詳細且管理良好的計劃,以實現這一目標。

  • Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • I would say that we also announced that, you remember at the December Investor Day, we announced another $75 million of cost opportunities we saw that we thought we could materialize by end of 2026. Given the environment we're in right now, probably no surprise to you, we are, as Eric said, working with our teams around the world and where our areas to potentially accelerate those on cost-out opportunities, trying to enhance that $100 million to $125 million of run rate savings we have with the original restructuring. So nothing to add incremental right now, but I would say, as Eric said, it's a top priority of this team around the world looking for ways to pull that in where appropriate.

    我想說的是,我們還宣布,你記得在 12 月的投資者日,我們宣布了我們看到的另外 7500 萬美元的成本機會,我​​們認為我們可以在 2026 年底實現。考慮到我們目前所處的環境,這可能不會讓你感到驚訝,正如埃里克所說,我們正在與世界各地的團隊和我們的地區合作,以潛在地加速那些成本削減機會,試圖將我們通過最初的重組所節省的 1 億至 1.25 億美元的運行率提高。所以現在沒有什麼可以增加增量的,但我想說,正如艾瑞克所說,這是我們全球團隊的首要任務,正在尋找適當的方法來解決這個問題。

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • Super. Thank you for that. And I guess, as I think forward, I think, Damon, you said you're still looking at 25% as kind of the trough of the cycle. I guess just based on all this cost stuff, there shouldn't be any real reason that we wouldn't factor in potentially meaningfully higher incremental margins once we start turning back up again? Or is there some offset you'd like us to keep in mind?

    極好的。謝謝你。我想,當我展望未來時,我想,達蒙,你說過你仍然將 25% 視為週期的低谷。我想,僅僅基於所有這些成本因素,我們就沒有理由不將潛在的、一旦我們開始回升就有意義的更高增量利潤率考慮在內?或者您希望我們記住一些偏移量?

  • Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • No. I mean, again, I think as we look at the structural cost that we're taking out, if you look at our decrementals this quarter, we were actually slightly positive to our normal call it, around 30% and part of that is the cost savings actions that are dropping to the bottom line.

    不。我的意思是,再說一次,我認為當我們看看我們正在削減的結構性成本時,如果你看看我們本季度的減量,我們實際上比正常水平略有提高,大約 30%,其中一部分是成本節約行動正在下降到底線。

  • I think obviously, as you start to go into an upswing in the market, see there's some variable cost that comes in, things like variable comp, hopefully gets to become a headwind for us. But I think overall, we would feel that we have structurally changed the profitability of this business through the cost actions, coupled with the large -- with the primary growth engines Eric talked about. So hopefully, the incrementals will be above our normal.

    我認為,顯然,當市場開始回升時,就會出現一些變動成本,例如變動薪酬,希望這些能成為我們的阻力。但我認為總體而言,我們會覺得我們已經透過成本行動以及艾瑞克談到的大型主要成長引擎從結構上改變了這項業務的獲利能力。因此希望增量能夠高於我們的正常水準。

  • But let's get to that point in the conversation when the industry is recovering, and we can dig deeper at that point in time.

    但是,讓我們在對話中討論行業復甦的時刻,我們可以在那個時間點進行更深入的挖掘。

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you.

    知道了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

  • Tami Zakaria - Analyst

    Tami Zakaria - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thank you so much. So my first question is on Fendt. So if there is tariff -- import on tariffs from the Eu, starting in July. What's your plan regarding the Fendt brand? My understanding is it's a premium price product already, so would you consider raising prices? Or would you absorb the cost initially to not drive any price escalation in an already weak market?

    嘿,早安。太感謝了。我的第一個問題是關於芬特的。因此,如果有關稅——從 7 月開始對來自歐盟的進口產品徵收關稅。您對 Fendt 品牌有何規劃?我的理解是它已經是一種高價產品了,那麼你會考慮提高價格嗎?或者您會先承擔成本以避免在已經疲軟的市場中引發任何價格上漲?

  • Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Let me talk about tariff strategies and it applies to Fendt or any other product that we bring in. Just because one product from one country gets a tariff, that doesn't mean you can put all of that load on that one product coming from that one country.

    是的。讓我來談談關稅策略,它適用於芬特或我們引進的任何其他產品。僅僅因為一個國家對某種產品徵收關稅,並不意味著你可以把所有的負擔都放在來自該國的這種產品上。

  • It gets that machine out of whack in the marketplace. So instead, we're looking at it more strategically and saying what are the total costs the company is incurring across all components and all machines that we export to a new market and then evaluating what can we do about that cost?

    它使市場這台機器失去平衡。因此,我們會從更具策略性的角度來看待這個問題,並說出公司在出口到新市場的所有零件和機器上產生的總成本是多少,然後評估我們可以對這些成本做些什麼?

  • How do we -- that's why we're so aggressive at taking cost out of the core of the company. That allows us a little bit more breathing room to be able to manage through that. Number two, how much can our suppliers, either by us resourcing or working with them to take cost out, how much can be absorbed in our supply base?

    我們如何——這就是為什麼我們如此積極地削減公司核心成本。這讓我們有更多的喘息空間來解決這個問題。第二,無論是透過我們提供資源或與供應商合作來降低成本,我們的供應基地能夠吸收多少?

  • And then when we're all done, it's probably going to be a bit of a more broad-based pricing strategy versus the one model that originated the cost increase. And that's because you need to keep your overall portfolio essentially in line with the market.

    然後,當我們全部完成時,它可能會是一個更廣泛的定價策略,而不是導致成本增加的單一模式。這是因為您需要讓您的整體投資組合與市場基本上保持一致。

  • So the -- all of the models within a given brand, but also from one brand to the next, you want to keep them masked with the value proposition that they deliver and the position they have in the market. So it will be more likely spread across the overall portfolio versus the models that originated the issue.

    因此,對於給定品牌內的所有模型,以及從一個品牌到另一個品牌的模型,您都希望透過它們提供的價值主張和它們在市場中的地位來掩蓋它們。因此,它更有可能蔓延到整個投資組合,而不是引發問題的模型。

  • Tami Zakaria - Analyst

    Tami Zakaria - Analyst

  • Understood. That's very helpful. That's all I had for today. Thank you.

    明白了。這非常有幫助。這就是我今天要講的全部內容。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steven Fisher, UBS.

    瑞銀的史蒂文·費雪。

  • Steven Fisher - Analyst

    Steven Fisher - Analyst

  • Well thanks. Good morning. I just wanted to follow up on the $0.30 of the tariff impact. Just to clarify from a flow perspective, what are the tariffs that is really driving that? Is that Europe to US? Is it China? Where does that all come from?

    好的,謝謝。早安.我只是想跟進一下 0.30 美元的關稅影響。只是從流量角度澄清一下,真正推動這項進程的關稅是什麼?那是從歐洲到美國嗎?是中國嗎?這一切從何而來?

  • Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. Steve, the largest headwind for us is going to be the tariffs currently in effect related to the EU. That would be our largest headwind that we're dealing with. And then secondarily would be the components coming out of China that we source given the higher tariff rate there. And then it drops off after those two.

    是的。史蒂夫,對我們來說最大的阻力將是目前與歐盟相關的關稅。這將是我們面臨的最大阻力。其次,由於中國的關稅較高,我們採購的零件來自中國。在這兩者之後,它就下降了。

  • We do import, as you're probably aware, we import some smaller or low horsepower tractors out of countries like Japan, Indonesia, India, a little bit from Brazil. So that tail drops off after EU and China.

    我們確實進口,您可能知道,我們從日本、印尼、印度等國家進口一些小型或低馬力的拖拉機,還有少量從巴西進口。因此,這一尾部在歐盟和中國之後下降。

  • Steven Fisher - Analyst

    Steven Fisher - Analyst

  • Very helpful. And then it seems like Brazil is obviously on the verge of perhaps really turning more positively here. So what can you do? And what are you doing to make sure you're keeping competitive pace there and really trying to -- is the objective to kind of win in Brazil? Can you just give a little bit of color there?

    非常有幫助。看來巴西顯然即將真正實現更積極的轉變。那麼你能做什麼呢?您正在做什麼來確保自己在那裡保持競爭步伐並真正努力——目標是在巴西獲勝嗎?你能給它加一點顏色嗎?

  • Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • No. We are full speed ahead in Brazil. We've said each time Brazil comes up. We're bullish on Brazil. We've been bullish on Brazil for years. We think it's one of the most critical growth markets in global agriculture. It's got the capacity to grow two crops a season, sometimes even more than that and more -- put more acreage into the production, is along with more use of high-technology precision Ag tools.

    不。我們在巴西全速前進。每次提到巴西,我們都會這麼說。我們看好巴西。多年來我們一直看好巴西。我們認為它是全球農業中最重要的成長市場之一。它有能力每季種植兩種作物,有時甚至更多——將更多的土地投入生產,同時更多地使用高科技精密農業工具。

  • So our brand leads, both of them, our Senior Vice Presidents of both brands are down there this week. I wish I could have been, but we had this stuff going on today. Head of PTx is down there.

    因此,我們兩個品牌的負責人,也就是我們兩個品牌的高級副總裁本週都在那裡。我希望我能去,但是我們今天遇到了這些事情。PTx 的負責人就在那裡。

  • So we're engaging with the market vigorously. All of them have given me feedback that the customer group is much more excited this year, and sales sentiment is much more positive this year than last year. We're working with our factories and supply base to make sure that we can be ready for an increase in demand that is likely coming. Brazil is either going up or down. It doesn't stay flat for very long.

    因此,我們正在積極參與市場。他們都向我回饋說,今年的客戶群更加興奮,今年的銷售情緒比去年更加積極。我們正在與工廠和供應基地合作,以確保我們能夠為可能出現的需求成長做好準備。巴西要么上升,要么下降。它不會長時間保持平坦。

  • And so we recognize that, and we think we're on the path to be going up for some time because all the indicators are pointing towards Brazil being a winner out of the volatility that's in the marketplace. And so we're well positioned for that.

    我們認識到了這一點,並認為我們將在一段時間內繼續走高,因為所有指標都表明巴西將成為市場波動中的贏家。因此,我們已做好充分準備。

  • Damon talked about, we're about one month high in dealer inventory, but probably through Agri show that's going to get evaporated here soon. And then it's really about building to the market.

    達蒙談到,我們的經銷商庫存大約有一個月的高位,但可能透過農業展,這些庫存很快就會蒸發掉。然後這其實就是為了建立市場。

  • Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Perfect. Thank you.

    完美的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tim Thein, Raymond James.

    提姆泰恩、雷蒙詹姆斯。

  • Timothy Thein - Analyst

    Timothy Thein - Analyst

  • Just a quick one, I guess, Eric. Just continuing along the line here, getting flashbacks dragged to my old baseball base betting here at the bottom of the lineup. But the -- just on the back of that comment on Brazil, I guess just curious, in light of the increase in interest rates that's putting a bit more pressure on the federal government in terms of the kind of the wiggle room they have in terms of announcing the subsidized interest rate program. I'm just curious, if there's been any news or anything that's come out there in terms of what next year's program may look like? So maybe that's part one.

    我想,這只是一個簡短的問題,艾瑞克。繼續沿著這條線走下去,回想起我在陣容底部投注的舊棒球基地。但是——只是在對巴西的評論背後,我想只是好奇,鑑於利率上升,這給聯邦政府帶來了更大的壓力,他們在宣布補貼利率計劃方面有多少迴旋餘地。我只是好奇,是否有任何消息或消息表明明年的計劃是什麼樣的?這也許就是第一部分。

  • And then part two, just -- and I probably missed this, but the change in the pricing expectations, and it wasn't a brand change, but the change from last quarter, was there a region? Or is that a mix dynamic going on with Brazil improving? Is that biasing that the overall pricing higher from last quarter? Maybe just a comment on that. Thank you.

    然後是第二部分,只是 - 我可能錯過了這一點,但定價預期的變化,這不是品牌變化,而是上一季的變化,有地區差異嗎?或者這是巴西隊實力不斷提升的混合動態?這是否意味著整體價格比上一季更高?也許只是對此的一個評論。謝謝。

  • Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Real briefly, Brazil, we haven't heard any indications yet. I don't think there's any indication that's been provided. But we do have confidence that, that government is highly supportive of farming and farmers. And so we think that the priority on farmers will remain, but don't have any specifics yet to be able to digest. And, I'll ask Damon to help out with the mix on pricing.

    是的。簡而言之,巴西,我們還沒有聽到任何跡象。我認為沒有提供任何跡象表明這一點。但我們確實有信心,政府大力支持農業和農民。因此,我們認為農民仍將是優先考慮的對象,但目前還沒有任何具體細節可供消化。而且,我會請達蒙幫忙訂價。

  • Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Tim, I think overall, our outlook from which was 0% to 1% to around 1% heavily weighted on what we've assumed related to the North American market there. So there's been a little bit of improvement here in Europe. But generally speaking, the change in guidance is solely focused -- mainly focused on North America.

    提姆,我認為總體而言,我們的預期是 0% 到 1% 左右,這在很大程度上取決於我們對北美市場的假設。歐洲的情況有所改善。但總體而言,指導方針的變化主要集中在北美。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Eric Hansotia for any closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Eric Hansotia 做最後發言。

  • Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you. I just wanted to thank the group for joining us today, and the great questions on the call. When you take a step back, AGCO has gone through a substantial transformation over these past several years, particularly in 2024, where we supercharge our precision Ag portfolio with the PTx brand. We're so glad that we made that move. AGCO performed well in the first quarter, better positioning ourselves amidst global trade uncertainty and continued weak industry demand.

    謝謝。我只是想感謝大家今天加入我們,以及電話會議中提出的精彩問題。回顧過去,愛科集團在過去幾年中經歷了重大轉型,尤其是在 2024 年,我們利用 PTx 品牌增強了我們的精準農業產品組合。我們很高興做出了這一舉動。愛科集團第一季表現良好,在全球貿易不確定性和持續疲軟的行業需求中佔據了更有利的地位。

  • We made substantial progress in our cost reduction efforts and reducing inventory. All these efforts will be priorities for the remainder of the year. We're excited about the fact that farmer sentiment indicators are trending positive in all the major regions six months in a row now (inaudible) which is our biggest market, and we still see the trough being in 2025. Our key to our long-term success is the continued execution of our Farmer-First strategy. Our focus is on growing our margin-rich businesses like Fendt, parts and services and our Precision Ag business.

    我們在降低成本和減少庫存方面取得了實質進展。所有這些努力都將成為今年剩餘時間的重點。我們很高興看到,所有主要地區的農民情緒指標連續六個月呈現正面趨勢(聽不清楚),這是我們最大的市場,我們仍然認為低谷將在 2025 年出現。我們長期成功的關鍵是繼續執行「農民優先」策略。我們的重點是發展利潤豐厚的業務,如芬特 (Fendt)、零件和服務以及精準農業業務。

  • I'll finish where I started. Our financial outlook reflects my confidence in the team and our strategy. Even in the weak industry conditions, we continue to execute on investing in the future, delivering market share gains and staying nimble on our costs. To all of our shareholders, we appreciate the support and look forward to building value and executing our Farmer-First strategy. Have a great day.

    我將完成我開始的地方。我們的財務前景反映了我對團隊和策略的信心。即使在行業疲軟的情況下,我們仍繼續進行未來投資,提高市場份額並保持成本靈活。對於我們所有的股東,我們感謝你們的支持,並期待創造價值並執行我們的「農民優先」策略。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for joining the AGCO earnings call. The call has concluded. Have a nice day.

    感謝您參加 AGCO 財報電話會議。通話已結束。祝你今天過得愉快。