AGCO Corp (AGCO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the AGCO fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 AGCO 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Greg Peterson, AGCO Head of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將會議交給 AGCO 投資者關係主管 Greg Peterson。

Thanks, and good morning. Welcome to those of you joining us for AGCO's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call. We will refer to a slide presentation this morning that's posted to our website at www.agcocorp.com. The non-GAAP measures used in the slide presentation are reconciled to GAAP metrics in the appendix of the presentation.

謝謝，早安。歡迎各位參加 AGCO 2024 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。我們將參考今天上午發佈到我們網站 www.agcocorp.com 的幻燈片簡報。幻燈片簡報中使用的非 GAAP 指標與簡報附錄中的 GAAP 指標進行了協調。

We will make forward-looking statements this morning, including statements about our strategic plans and initiatives as well as their financial impacts. We'll discuss demand, product development and capital expenditure plans, the timing of those plans and our expectations concerning the costs and benefits of those plans, and timing of those benefits.

我們將於今天上午發表前瞻性聲明，包括有關我們的策略計劃和舉措及其財務影響的聲明。我們將討論需求、產品開發和資本支出計劃、這些計劃的時間表以及我們對這些計劃的成本和收益的預期以及這些收益的時間表。

We'll also cover future revenue, crop production, farm income, production levels, price levels, margins, earnings, operating income, cash flow, engineering expense, tax rates, and other financial metrics. All of these are subject to risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the statements.

我們還將介紹未來收入、作物產量、農場收入、生產水準、價格水準、利潤率、收益、營業收入、現金流、工程費用、稅率和其他財務指標。所有這些都存在風險，可能導致實際結果與聲明所暗示的結果有重大差異。

These risks include, but are not limited to, adverse developments in the agricultural industry; supply chain disruption; inflation; tariffs; weather; commodity prices; changes in product demand; the possible failure to develop new and improved products on time, including premium technology and smart farming solutions, within budget and with the expected performance in price benefits; difficulties in integrating the PTx Trimble business in a manner that produces the expected financial results; introduction of new or improved products by our competitors, and reductions in pricing by them; the war in the Ukraine; difficulties in integrating acquired businesses and in completing expansion and modernization plans, on time and in a manner that produces expected financial results; and adverse changes in the financial and foreign exchange markets.

這些風險包括但不限於農業產業的不利發展；供應鏈中斷；通貨膨脹;關稅；天氣;商品價格；產品需求的變化；可能無法按時開發出新的和改進的產品，包括高端技術和智慧農業解決方案，在預算之內並達到預期的價格效益；難以以產生預期財務結果的方式整合 PTx Trimble 業務；我們的競爭對手推出新的或改進的產品，並降低價格；烏克蘭戰爭；難以整合收購的業務以及無法按時完成擴張和現代化計劃並產生預期的財務結果；以及金融和外匯市場的不利變化。

Actual results could differ materially from those suggested in these statements. Further information concerning these and other risks is included in AGCO's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, and subsequent Form 10-Q filings. AGCO disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

實際結果可能與這些聲明中所建議的結果有重大差異。有關這些風險和其他風險的更多資訊包含在 AGCO 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，包括截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表以及後續的 10-Q 表文件。除非法律另有規定，否則 AGCO 不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

Later today, we'll make a replay of this call available on our corporate website. On the call with me this morning is Eric Hansotia, our Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; and Damon Audia, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天晚些時候，我們將在公司網站上提供此通話的重播。今天早上與我一起通話的是我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Eric Hansotia；以及我們的高級副總裁兼財務長 Damon Audia。

With that, Eric, please go ahead.

好了，埃里克，請繼續。

Thanks, Greg, and good morning. Earlier today, AGCO reported fourth-quarter results for 2024, where we delivered a strong 9.9% adjusted operating margin and $1.97 in adjusted earnings per share and sales that were down 24% from quarter four last year. On a full-year basis, we achieved an 8.9% adjusted operating margin and $7.50 in adjusted earnings per share and sales that were down 19% from 2023.

謝謝，格雷格，早安。今天早些時候，愛科公佈了 2024 年第四季業績，調整後營業利潤率強勁增長 9.9%，調整後每股收益 1.97 美元，銷售額較去年第四季下降 24%。全年來看，我們實現了 8.9% 的調整後營業利潤率和 7.50 美元的調整後每股收益，銷售額較 2023 年下降 19%。

The adjusted operating margin performance is by far our best performance in an industry downturn. What makes it more impressive is that the North American industry decline in 2024 was the worst single-year decline since the downturn in 2009 associated with the financial crisis. Our margin resiliency in this challenging environment is clear evidence that we have structurally improved the company through our ongoing transformation efforts over these past years.

調整後的營業利潤率表現是我們在產業低迷時期迄今最好的表現。更令人印象深刻的是，2024 年北美產業下滑是自 2009 年金融危機導致的經濟衰退以來最嚴重的單年下滑。在這種充滿挑戰的環境下，我們的利潤率仍然保持彈性，這充分證明我們透過過去幾年的持續轉型努力，從結構上改善了公司。

I want to take a moment to thank the AGCO team around the world for delivering such strong results for the year despite a challenging and dynamic macroenvironment, and at the same time, with significant portfolio shifts that occurred in our business. The organization teamed up and put farmers first, reinforcing AGCO as the most trusted partner for industry-leading smart farming solutions.

我想花點時間感謝 AGCO 全球團隊，儘管宏觀環境充滿挑戰和動態，同時我們的業務組合發生了重大變化，但他們仍然在今年取得瞭如此強勁的業績。該組織攜手合作，將農民放在第一位，鞏固了 AGCO 作為業界領先的智慧農業解決方案最值得信賴的合作夥伴的地位。

2024 was a transformative year for AGCO. We closed the largest ag tech deal in our industry's history with PTx Trimble joint venture. And we also exited a non-core part of our business by divesting the majority of the Grain and Protein business. These portfolio changes helped us enhance our strategic ambitions and allow AGCO to focus on agriculture machinery and precision ag technology. These strategic changes will also provide margin tailwinds for us over the long term as we outlined at our Analyst Day in December.

2024 年對 AGCO 來說是轉型的一年。我們與 PTx Trimble 合資企業完成了本行業歷史上最大的農業科技交易。我們也透過剝離大部分穀物和蛋白質業務退出了非核心業務部分。這些投資組合的變化幫助我們提升了戰略抱負，並使 AGCO 能夠專注於農業機械和精準農業技術。正如我們在 12 月分析師日上所概述的那樣，這些策略變化也將為我們提供長期的利潤順風。

On the Precision Technology side of our business, we combined all our brands under the newly launched TTX brand so that we can swiftly unlock synergies across the enterprise and grow Precision Ag sales to $2 billion by 2029. We have already demonstrated tremendous progress in 2024, where we now have over 1,000 PTx dealers, all while continuing to foster relationships with over 100 OEMs.

在精準技術業務方面，我們將所有品牌整合到新推出的 TTX 品牌下，以便我們能夠迅速釋放整個企業的協同效應，到 2029 年將精準農業銷售額增長到 20 億美元。我們在 2024 年已經取得了巨大的進步，現在我們擁有超過 1,000 家 PTx 經銷商，同時繼續與 100 多家 OEM 建立關係。

Looking to the future, we know our independent retrofit dealer network is an absolute key differentiator for us that provides unmatched product expertise and support to farmers regardless of the equipment brands they prefer. Autonomy, targeted spring, and off-board technologies will become more mainstream in the coming years. AGCO is poised to partner with farmers at any point in their technology journey. The depth of our product portfolio and unique consultative go-to-market approach allows us to offer a wide variety of products for any brand in vintage of machinery, and this is a very difficult thing to replicate.

展望未來，我們知道我們的獨立改造經銷商網路是我們絕對關鍵的差異化因素，無論農民喜歡什麼設備品牌，它都能為他們提供無與倫比的產品專業知識和支援。未來幾年，自主性、定向彈簧和車外技術將變得更加主流。AGCO 隨時準備與農民在其技術進步的任何階段進行合作。我們豐富的產品組合和獨特的諮詢式行銷方式使我們能夠為任何品牌的機械提供各種各樣的產品，這是很難複製的。

In addition, given our Farmer-First focus, we also rolled out our FarmerCore initiative in 2024 and further streamlined our distribution network by partnering with some of the greatest dealers so that we can best serve farmers on farm, online or on-site at the dealership, the way they want to be best served. The Fed portfolio in North America comes with an industry-leading uptime commitment, and our FarmerCore strategy is designed to help deliver that uptime.

此外，鑑於我們「農民優先」的重點，我們還在 2024 年推出了 FarmerCore 計劃，並透過與一些最優秀的經銷商合作進一步簡化了我們的分銷網絡，以便我們能夠以農民希望得到的最佳服務方式，無論是在農場、在線還是在經銷店現場。北美聯邦投資組合具有業界領先的正常運行時間承諾，而我們的 FarmerCore 策略旨在幫助實現該正常運行時間。

We expect rent coverage in North and South America to continue its growth trajectory and reach approximately 82% in 2025 through these continued efforts. The quarter wasn't without challenges, however. The dealer inventories remain higher than target going into 2025. On a weighted average basis, we have between 1 and 1.5 months of excess dealer inventory to work through. To address this, we are planning to significantly underproduce retail demand again in 2025.

我們預計，透過這些持續的努力，北美和南美的租金覆蓋率將繼續保持成長軌跡，並在 2025 年達到約 82%。然而，本季也並非沒有挑戰。到 2025 年，經銷商庫存仍高於目標。以加權平均計算，我們有 1 至 1.5 個月的過剩經銷商庫存需要處理。為了解決這個問題，我們計劃在 2025 年再次大幅減少零售需求。

Although we anticipate further declines in large ag machinery volumes in 2025, recent sentiment surveys and many of our recent interactions with farmers show a sense of cautious optimism that is an improvement from where we were just six months ago. Recent positive news around the stocks-to-use ratios and commodity price rallies have improved farmers' expectations about future profitability.

儘管我們預計 2025 年大型農業機械數量將進一步下降，但最近的情緒調查和我們最近與農民的許多互動都表明，人們保持謹慎樂觀的態度，這比六個月前的水平有所改善。最近有關庫存使用比和商品價格上漲的正面消息提高了農民對未來獲利能力的預期。

The byproduct of this is a back half-weighted outlook for AGCO. To best position ourselves in this environment, we anticipate more significant production cuts in the first half of the year, offset by modest growth in production hours in the back half as we lap easier comparables. Finally, we will see cost savings begin to materialize in earnest around mid-2025 as our rightsizing transformation initiatives begin to manifest in the P&L. We expect these efforts to mitigate some of the weak industry demand.

其副產品是 AGCO 的後半部加權前景。為了在這種環境下佔據最佳位置，我們預計上半年產量將進一步大幅削減，但下半年隨著可比性提高，生產時間將適度增加，從而抵消上半年產量削減的影響。最後，隨著我們的精簡轉型措施開始在損益表中體現，我們將看到成本節約在 2025 年中期左右開始真正實現。我們預計這些努力將緩解部分疲軟的產業需求。

Despite a lower sales forecast and significant underproduction, we expect higher and more resilient margins compared to past cycles due to the structural improvements in our business. Slide 4 details industry unit retail sales by region for 2024. Global industry retail sales of farm equipment continued to be weak in all of AGCO's key markets. We expect the bottom of the cycle to occur in 2025.

儘管銷售預測較低且產量嚴重不足，但由於業務結構性改善，我們預期利潤率將比過去的周期更高且更具彈性。投影片 4 詳細介紹了 2024 年各地區行業單位零售額。在愛科的所有主要市場中，全球農業設備產業零售額持續疲軟。我們預計週期的底部將出現在 2025 年。

North American industry retail tractor sales decreased 13% during 2024 compared to the previous year. Sales declines were relatively consistent across the horsepower categories with higher horsepower categories declining more in recent months. Combined unit sales were down 22% in 2024 compared to 2023. Lower projected farm income and a refreshed fleet is expected to pressure industry demand even more in 2025, resulting in weaker North American industry sales compared to 2024, particularly in larger equipment.

2024 年北美行業零售拖拉機銷量與前一年相比下降了 13%。不同馬力類別的銷售下降相對一致，近幾個月來馬力較大的類別銷售下降幅度更大。2024 年綜合銷量與 2023 年相比下降了 22%。預計農場收入的下降和車隊的更新將對 2025 年的行業需求造成更大壓力，導致北美行業銷售較 2024 年有所疲軟，尤其是大型設備。

Brazil industry retail tractor sales decreased 4% and combined sales decreased 33% during 2024 compared to the previous year. Farm acreage in Brazil increased only modestly in 2024 after five years of more significant growth. Lower commodity prices, rising farmer debt, and reduced demand from China created caution among Brazilian farmers. Industry demand is expected to remain effectively flat in 2025 due to mixed market dynamics.

2024 年，巴西產業零售拖拉機銷量與前一年相比下降了 4%，綜合銷量下降了 33%。經過五年的大幅成長後，巴西的農業種植面積在 2024 年僅小幅增加。大宗商品價格下跌、農民債務增加以及中國需求減少導致巴西農民變得謹慎。由於市場動態混合，預計 2025 年行業需求將保持基本相同。

As with other cycles, industry demand will recover. It's a matter of when, not if. AGCO will benefit from the long-term growth of the Agricultural Equipment segment thanks to a growing population and a middle class with diets that consist of greater amounts of protein. With the actions we took in 2024, our consistent Farmer-First focus, we have positioned ourselves very well to capitalize on the growth of Precision Ag that is needed to raise yields and meet the world's growing agricultural needs.

與其他週期一樣，產業需求將會復甦。這是一個時間問題，而不是是否會發生的問題。由於人口不斷增長以及中產階級飲食中蛋白質含量增加，愛科將從農業設備領域的長期增長中受益。透過我們在 2024 年採取的行動以及我們始終如一的「農民優先」的重點，我們已經做好了充分的準備來利用精準農業的成長，以提高產量並滿足世界日益增長的農業需求。

AGCO's factory production hours are shown on slide 5. We have eliminated Grain and Protein production hours for 2024. Significant production cuts were made in all regions in quarter four 2024, with the biggest reductions occurring in South America and North America. Given the continued weakening industry conditions, we reduced production hours even more than we planned as sales in the quarter were below our expectations.

AGCO 的工廠生產時間顯示在投影片 5 上。我們已經消除了 2024 年穀物和蛋白質的生產時間。2024 年第四季所有地區均大幅減產，其中南美洲和北美洲的減產幅度最大。鑑於行業狀況持續疲軟，由於本季的銷售額低於我們的預期，我們削減的生產時間甚至超過了我們的計劃。

Our production hours were down approximately 33% in the quarter four of 2024 versus low levels in the quarter four of 2023 and down approximately 28% on a full-year basis versus the year of 2023 at a global level. We remain laser focused on reducing dealer inventories as quickly as possible in 2025, given the current soft demand environment and elevated dealer inventory levels. Sequentially, from quarter three to quarter four 2024, we saw modest reductions in dealer inventory, but we still have work to do, primarily in North America and South America.

2024 年第四季度，我們的生產時間較 2023 年第四季的低水準下降了約 33%，與 2023 年全球水準相比，全年生產時間下降了約 28%。鑑於當前需求環境疲軟且經銷商庫存水準上升，我們仍將致力於在 2025 年盡快減少經銷商庫存。從 2024 年第三季到第四季度，我們看到經銷商庫存略有減少，但我們仍有工作要做，主要是在北美和南美。

We are projecting 2025 production hours between 15% and 20% lower than 2024, with the North America region showing the biggest decline. We expect quarter one 2025 production hours to be down between 35% and 40% and versus quarter one of 2024. Our plan is front loaded and aggressive to get inventory rightsized quickly. Our current outlook for 2025 assumes North America and South America will result in production less than retail demand at least through the first half of 2025.

我們預計 2025 年的生產小時數將比 2024 年低 15% 至 20%，其中北美地區的降幅最大。我們預計 2025 年第一季的生產小時數將與 2024 年第一季相比下降 35% 至 40%。我們的計劃是前期投入並積極推進的，以便快速獲得合適庫存。我們目前對 2025 年的預測是，至少在 2025 年上半年，北美和南美的產量將低於零售需求。

Diving into the regional breakdown, in Europe, we ended 2024 with dealer inventories at just over four months of supply, effectively in line with where we'd like. Fendt is under this average, and Massey Ferguson and Valtra are slightly above. The near-target dealer inventory level in Europe is a real positive for AGCO given the significant exposure to the region.

深入研究歐洲地區的細分情況，到 2024 年底，我們的經銷商庫存僅夠供應四個多月，這與我們的預期基本一致。Fendt 低於這個平均水平，而 Massey Ferguson 和 Valtra 則略高於這個平均水平。鑑於愛科在該地區的業務量龐大，其歐洲經銷商庫存水準接近目標，這對愛科來說是一個真正的利好。

In South America, we reduced a number of units on hand at the dealers by over 8% from quarter three level. However, given the forward outlook, dealers are still holding around five months of supply versus our target level of three months. We anticipate underproducing retail demand at least through the first half of 2025 to further reduce dealer inventory levels.

在南美，我們經銷商處的庫存單位數量較第三季減少了 8% 以上。然而，從長遠前景來看，經銷商仍持有約五個月的供應量，而我們的目標水準是三個月。我們預計至少在 2025 年上半年零售需求將處於低迷狀態，從而進一步降低經銷商的庫存水準。

Similar, in North America, we reduced the units on hand at the dealers by approximately 7% from quarter three levels. However, given the challenging outlook in 2025, we are still approximately nine months of supply versus our six months target. The current environment will result in a significantly lower production levels at least for the first half of 2025.

類似地，在北美，我們將經銷商的庫存量從第三季的水準減少了約 7%。然而，鑑於 2025 年的前景充滿挑戰，我們的供應量仍僅為 9 個月左右，而我們的目標是 6 個月。目前的環境將導致至少到 2025 年上半年產量水準大幅下降。

Moving to slide 6, where you'll see our three high-margin growth levers aimed at improving our mid-cycle operating margins to our new target of 14% to 15% by 2029 and outgrowing the industry by 4% to 5% annually. This demonstrates that we are a much stronger company that has less variability throughout the business cycle, higher at the mid cycle, but also higher lows and higher highs.

前往第 6 張投影片，您將看到我們的三個高利潤成長槓桿，旨在將我們的中期週期營業利潤率提高到 2029 年的新目標 14% 至 15%，並且每年超過行業 4% 至 5%。這顯示我們是一家實力較強大的公司，在整個商業週期中波動性較小，在中期週期中波動較大，但低點和高點也都較高。

To reiterate, these three growth levers are: number one, the globalization and full-line product rollout of our Fendt brand, where we now expect North and South America Fendt revenues to reach $1.7 billion by 2029; number two, growing our Precision Ag sales to $2 billion globally by 2029; and number three, focusing on accelerating our global parts business and increasing the market share of genuine AGCO parts to achieve approximately $2.3 billion in global sales by 2029. We rolled out these new targets at our recent analyst meeting in December, and we appreciate those who were in attendance.

重申一下，這三個成長槓桿是：第一，我們的 Fendt 品牌的全球化和全系列產品的推出，我們目前預計到 2029 年北美和南美 Fendt 的收入將達到 17 億美元；第二，到 2029 年，將我們的精準農業全球銷售額成長到 20 億美元；第三，專注於加速我們的全球零件業務，提高 AGCO 原廠零件的市場份額，到 2029 年實現全球銷售額約 23 億美元。我們在 12 月最近的分析師會議上推出了這些新目標，我們感謝出席會議的各位。

Moving to slide 7, you'll see a recap of Precision Planting's 2025 Winter Conference. That's one of my favorite events every year. I just never miss it. This premier event attracted over 4,000 farmer attendees from across the globe. The objective is to help farmers learn strategies and technologies that will help them efficiently and productively improve their operations, and they can all be implemented immediately on their farms. The conference also gives them opportunities to connect with other farmers and experts to share knowledge.

移至投影片 7，您將看到 Precision Planting 2025 年冬季會議的回顧。這是我每年最喜歡的活動之一。我從來不會錯過它。此次盛會吸引了來自全球各地 4,000 多名農民參加。目標是幫助農民學習能夠幫助他們有效率、有效率地改善經營的策略和技術，並且這些策略和技術都可以立即在他們的農場實施。會議也為他們提供了與其他農民和專家交流知識的機會。

One of the highlights from the event included an update on our Symphony Vision targeted spray system, which will begin deliveries in quarter one of 2025. As you'd expect from us and our Farmer-First strategy, this technology can be retrofitted on all sprayers sold in North America in the last 10 years. We are going to the market with two tier of offerings. The first is Symphony Vision Rate, which allows farmers to leverage pulse with modulation technology with live vision variable rate control.

活動的亮點之一是我們對 Symphony Vision 定向噴霧系統的更新，該系統將於 2025 年第一季開始交付。正如您對我們和我們的「農民優先」策略的期望一樣，這項技術可以安裝在過去 10 年內在北美銷售的所有噴霧器上。我們將向市場提供兩層產品。第一個是 Symphony Vision Rate，它允許農民利用脈衝調變技術進行即時視覺可變速率控制。

The second is Symphony Vision Spot, which adds spots spray control of each nozzle. Farmers can grow into the technology at a pace they prefer simply by adding additional cameras for the full spot spray feature set. Farmers will own the technology with no per-acre recurring charge, enabling them to control weeds in a cost-effective manner year after year while maximizing tax incentives in the year of purchase.

第二個是Symphony Vision Spot，增加了每個噴嘴的點噴霧控制。農民可以按照自己喜歡的速度掌握這項技術，只需添加額外的攝影機即可獲得全套點噴灑功能。農民將擁有這項技術，且無需按英畝繳納經常性費用，從而可以年復一年地以經濟有效的方式控制雜草，同時在購買當年最大限度地享受稅收優惠。

Our unique independent distribution network emphasized retrofit first through a hands-on approach where the dealers are seen as trusted advisers by the farmers. The depth of the precision planting portfolio, coupled with the PTx Trimble product lineup, allows AGCO to offer absolutely the most comprehensive suite of technology hardware and services, regardless of the make or year of equipment a farmer owns.

我們獨特的獨立分銷網絡強調首先透過親自動手的方式進行改造，其中經銷商被農民視為值得信賴的顧問。精準播種產品組合的深度與 PTx Trimble 產品系列相結合，使 AGCO 能夠提供最全面的技術硬體和服務套件，無論農民擁有的設備品牌或年份如何。

AGCO's objective is to be the technology hub of the mixed fleet. This event is a testament to our unwavering commitment to innovation and shaping the future of the industry alongside our farmer partners. I couldn't be more excited about what's ahead.

AGCO 的目標是成為混合車隊的技術中心。這次活動證明了我們堅定不移地致力於創新並與我們的農民合作夥伴一起塑造產業的未來。我對未來感到無比興奮。

On slide 8, you'll see a familiar slide that highlights how our Precision Ag products can help farmers reduce every expense, except land, where we can positively impact over 70% of the costs on a given farm. The value add and return on investment is clear for farmers. We're seeing increased adoption of technologies even in this challenged ag economy.

在第 8 張投影片上，您將看到一張熟悉的投影片，它重點介紹了我們的精準農業產品如何幫助農民減少土地以外的所有開支，我們可以對特定農場 70% 以上的成本產生積極影響。對於農民來說，增值和投資回報是顯而易見的。即使在當前充滿挑戰的農業經濟中，我們也看到科技的應用日益增加。

Let's take electric drive planter rollers in smart sprayer nozzle leaving our factories as examples. In quarter four, we had electric drive planter rollers approaching 90% take rate. Smart nozzle saw over a 50% take rate in quarter four and we expect that to grow significantly with Precision Planting Symphony nozzle.

讓我們以我們工廠出廠的智慧噴霧器噴嘴中的電驅動播種機滾筒為例。在第四季度，我們的電動播種機壓路機的使用率接近 90%。智慧噴嘴在第四季的使用率超過 50%，我們預計，隨著精準種植 Symphony 噴嘴的使用，這一比例將大幅增長。

2024 marked a significant milestone for AGCO's Precision Ag business. We brought together two powerful brands: Precision Planting, known for its innovation and pharma focus, and PTx Trimble. These two working in a fully integrated way as one powerful team to build our market-leading Precision Ag technology focused on the mix suite.

2024 年是 AGCO 精準農業業務的重要里程碑。我們整合了兩個強大的品牌：以創新和製藥重點而聞名的 Precision Planting 和 PTx Trimble。兩家公司以完全整合的方式組成一個強大的團隊，致力於打造我們市場領先的、專注於混合套件的精準農業技術。

Through this integration, we have already made several changes to better position the business for success, including recent leadership changes to enhance the focus on driving innovation and winning across all brands and farmers. These improvements accelerate our ability to deliver on being the most farmer-focused precision ag technology company in the industry.

透過此次整合，我們已經做出了多項變革，以使業務更好地獲得成功，包括最近的領導層變動，以加強對推動創新和贏得所有品牌和農民的關注。這些改進加速了我們成為業界最以農民為中心的精準農業技術公司的能力。

We also made progress on transforming our technology stack with the PTx Trimble joint venture. We recently launched our OutRun retrofit autonomy kit, and there's lots of excitement about it. While the long-term opportunity is attractive, there are some near-term dynamics impacting the business. As we indicated at our Analyst Meeting, sales and margin for PTx Trimble have been pressured given the rapid decline in the broader industry and the ongoing distribution transition.

我們也與 PTx Trimble 合資企業合作，在技術堆疊轉型方面取得了進展。我們最近推出了 OutRun 改裝自主套件，這引起了許多人的興奮。雖然長期機會很有吸引力，但也有一些短期動態對業務產生影響。正如我們在分析師會議上所指出的，由於整個行業的快速下滑和正在進行的分銷轉型，PTx Trimble 的銷售額和利潤率面臨壓力。

Related to the softness, we have taken a goodwill impairment charge in quarter four, which Damon will cover in more detail shortly. Despite this, we know this was absolutely the correct strategic move and we'll continue integrating, innovating and growing the PTx portfolio of products and services to hit our 2029 sales target of $2 billion. The short-term market environment has no effect on the strategic value of this asset and our confidence in achieving our $2 billion sales target. Helping PTx accelerate development and deploying industry-leading solutions for farmers around the world, will be one of my top priorities in 2025.

與疲軟相關的是，我們在第四季度計入了商譽減損費用，Damon 將在稍後詳細介紹。儘管如此，我們知道這絕對是正確的策略舉措，我們將繼續整合、創新和發展 PTx 產品和服務組合，以實現 2029 年 20 億美元的銷售目標。短期市場環境不會影響該資產的戰略價值和我們實現 20 億美元銷售目標的信心。幫助 PTx 加速發展並為世界各地的農民部署行業領先的解決方案將是我 2025 年的首要任務之一。

I'll now hand it over to Damon to walk you through some of the financials from the quarter.

現在我將把話題交給達蒙，讓他向大家介紹本季的一些財務狀況。

Thank you, Eric. Good morning, everyone. Slide 9 provides an overview of regional net sales performance for the fourth quarter and full year. Net sales were down approximately 24% in the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 when excluding negative effect of currency translation and positive impact of acquisitions. Pricing in the quarter was roughly negative 1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.

謝謝你，埃里克。大家早安。投影片 9 概述了第四季度和全年區域淨銷售業績。排除貨幣換算的負面影響和收購的正面影響，第四季淨銷售額與 2023 年第四季相比下降約 24%。與 2023 年第四季相比，本季的定價約下降了 1%。

By region, the Europe/Middle East segment reported sales down roughly 17% in the quarter compared to the same period in 2023, excluding the impact of unfavorable currency translation and favorable impact of acquisitions. Sales were down in most countries with declines in Germany, the United Kingdom, and France showing the largest reductions.

按地區劃分，歐洲/中東地區本季銷售額與 2023 年同期相比下降約 17%，不包括不利的貨幣換算和收購的有利影響。大多數國家的銷售額都出現下降，其中德國、英國和法國的降幅最大。

The products showing the most significant declines were high horsepower tractors, hay tools, and combines. However, part showed modest growth even in this environment. South American net sales decreased approximately 24%, excluding the impact of unfavorable currency translation and favorable impact of acquisitions. The market continues to be challenged, and we continue to underproduce relative to retail demand. High horsepower tractors, combines and planters showed the largest reductions.

降幅最顯著的產品是大馬力拖拉機、乾草工具和聯合收割機。不過，即使在這種環境下，部分產品仍表現出適度的成長。剔除不利貨幣換算和收購帶來的有利影響，南美淨銷售額下降約 24%。市場持續面臨挑戰，我們的產量仍無法滿足零售需求。大馬力拖拉機、聯合收割機和播種機的減幅最大。

By geography, the Brazilian market was down the most, partially offset by increased sales in Argentina. Net sales in North America region decreased approximately 39%, excluding the impact of unfavorable currency translation and favorable impact of acquisitions. Lower farm income continues to pressure its farmer purchasing behavior. High-horsepower tractors, hay tools, and sprayers saw the largest declines.

從地理來看，巴西市場跌幅最大，但阿根廷市場銷售額的成長部分抵銷了這一跌幅。剔除不利貨幣換算和收購帶來的有利影響，北美地區的淨銷售額下降約 39%。較低的農業收入繼續對農民的購買行為造成壓力。大馬力拖拉機、乾草工具和噴霧器的降幅最大。

Net sales in Asia-Pacific/Africa decreased 28%, excluding favorable currency translation and favorable impact of acquisitions due to weaker end market demand and lower production volumes. The most significant declines occurred in China and Australia. Finally, consolidated replacement parts were approximately $418 million for the fourth quarter, up 4% on a reported basis and up approximately 6% year over year when excluding the effects of unfavorable currency translation. A special thanks to the parts team around the world to deliver such strong results in 2024.

不包括有利的貨幣換算和由於終端市場需求減弱和產量下降而產生的收購帶來的有利影響，亞太/非洲地區的淨銷售額下降了 28%。降幅最為顯著的是中國和澳洲。最後，第四季合併更換零件總額約 4.18 億美元，報告期間內成長 4%，若排除不利貨幣換算的影響，則較去年同期成長約 6%。特別感謝全球零件團隊在 2024 年取得如此強勁的成績。

Turning to slide 10, the fourth quarter adjusted operating margin was 9.9%, a decline of 80 basis points compared to the strong fourth quarter of 2023. The weak industry conditions are resulting in significantly higher costs related to factory under-absorption and higher discounts. By region, the Europe/Middle East segment income from operations decreased by $95 million, and operating margins decreased 180 basis points from Q4 of 2023 to Q4 of 2024.

轉到第 10 頁，第四季調整後的營業利潤率為 9.9%，與強勁的 2023 年第四季相比下降了 80 個基點。行業狀況疲軟，導致與工廠吸收不足和折扣增加相關的成本大幅增加。按地區劃分，歐洲/中東部門營業收入減少了 9,500 萬美元，營業利潤率從 2023 年第四季到 2024 年第四季下降了 180 個基點。

The lower margins were a result of reduced sales volume, factory under-absorption from reduced production, and increased discounts. Although the industry was down in this segment and the results declined year over year, I would note that our team in Europe did a fantastic job growing share and driving cost savings, which helped deliver the second highest level of earnings from the segment ever. So congratulations to the European team and their strong execution.

利潤率下降是由於銷售量下降、工廠產量減少導致吸收不足、折扣增加。儘管該領域的行業處於低迷狀態，且業績逐年下降，但我要指出的是，我們歐洲團隊在擴大份額和節省成本方面做得非常出色，這有助於我們在該領域實現有史以來第二高的盈利水平。因此，祝賀歐洲隊及其強大的執行力。

North American income from operations in the quarter decreased approximately $77 million year over year and operating margins decreased approximately 830 basis points. Lower sales from the weak market conditions, the divestiture of Grain and Protein, lower production hours, and higher expenses associated with the integration of the PTx Trimble business are the primary drivers for the lower operating margins.

本季北美營業收入年減約 7,700 萬美元，營業利潤率下降約 830 個基點。市場疲軟導致的銷售額下降、穀物和蛋白質業務的剝離、生產時間減少以及與 PTx Trimble 業務整合相關的費用增加是導致營業利潤率下降的主要因素。

Operating income in South America increased by approximately $15 million in Q4 of 2024 versus Q4 of 2023, and operating margins were roughly 11% in the quarter. Market conditions in the region have continued to remain weak, and we have reacted with significant production cuts for five consecutive quarters.

2024 年第四季，南美地區的營業收入與 2023 年第四季相比增加了約 1,500 萬美元，本季營業利潤率約為 11%。該地區的市場狀況持續疲軟，我們已連續五季大幅減產。

SG&A expenses were significantly lower in Q4 of 2024 compared to Q4 of 2023 due to the restructuring efforts. We also had a one-time benefit in Q4 of 2024 of roughly $4 million related to the MOVER program sponsored by the Brazilian government, which helped operating margins by around 140 basis points in the quarter. Income from operations in our Asia-Pacific/Africa segment decreased by approximately $14 million due to higher discounts and SG&A.

由於重組努力，2024 年第四季的銷售、一般及行政開支較 2023 年第四季大幅下降。2024 年第四季度，我們也獲得了與巴西政府贊助的 MOVER 計畫相關的一次性收益約 400 萬美元，這有助於本季的營業利潤率提高約 140 個基點。由於折扣和銷售、一般及行政費用增加，我們亞太/非洲分部的營業收入減少了約 1,400 萬美元。

As Eric mentioned, we did record an impairment charge of just over $350 million in the fourth quarter related to the North American component of our PTx Trimble joint venture. In the quarter, we performed our annual goodwill impairment assessment and concluded that the projected discounted cash flows would not support the current level of goodwill. The industry conditions in 2024 and the current industry outlook for 2025 negatively affecting the JV's sales and earnings during these early years were the primary reasons for the write-down.

正如 Eric 所提到的，我們確實在第四季度記錄了與 PTx Trimble 合資企業北美部分相關的超過 3.5 億美元的減損費用。在本季度，我們進行了年度商譽減損評估並得出結論：預期的折現現金流量無法支撐目前的商譽水準。2024 年的行業狀況和 2025 年的當前行業前景對合資公司早期的銷售和收益產生了負面影響，這是減記的主要原因。

Despite this adjustment, I would reiterate what Eric said that the PTx Trimble joint venture is foundational to our autonomy ambitions, offboard software suite, and guidance solutions for not just AGCO machines but for the mixed lead. We've made great progress in integrating the PTx Trimble joint venture over the past two months and look to build on that momentum in 2025 and beyond. We remain committed to our $2 billion Precision Ag sales target for 2029.

儘管進行了這樣的調整，我仍想重申 Eric 所說的話：PTx Trimble 合資企業是我們自主目標、機外軟體套件和指導解決方案的基礎，這些解決方案不僅適用於 AGCO 機器，也適用於混合領先機器。在過去兩個月中，我們在整合 PTx Trimble 合資企業方面取得了巨大進展，並期待在 2025 年及以後繼續保持這一勢頭。我們仍致力於實現 2029 年 20 億美元的精準農業銷售目標。

Slide 11 shows our full three-year cash flow for 2023 and 2024. As a reminder, free cash flow represents cash used in or provided by operating activities less purchases of property, plant, and equipment. Free cash flow conversion is defined as free cash flow divided by adjusted net income. We generated $297 million in free cash flow in 2024, approximately $288 million less than 2023 and lower than our expectations.

幻燈片 11 展示了我們 2023 年和 2024 年的完整三年現金流。提醒一下，自由現金流代表經營活動所用或提供的現金減去購買的財產、廠房和設備。自由現金流轉換定義為自由現金流除以調整後的淨收入。我們在 2024 年產生了 2.97 億美元的自由現金流，比 2023 年減少約 2.88 億美元，也低於我們的預期。

The decline relative to our forecast in corresponding lower free cash flow conversion was driven by the lower-than-expected sales in the fourth quarter. The decline year over year resulted primarily from lower net income. Our capital allocation plan includes reinvesting back into the business, repaying debt to maintain our investment-grade credit ratings, and rewarding shareholders with direct returns.

相對於我們預測的自由現金流轉換率下降，是由於第四季的銷售額低於預期。年比下降主要由於淨收入下降。我們的資本配置計劃包括重新投資於業務，償還債務以維持我們的投資等級信用評級，以及向股東提供直接回報。

In addition to the regular quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share, as a reminder, we also paid a special variable dividend of $2.50 per share in the second quarter of 2024. The AGCO has paid over $1.2 billion in special variable dividends over the last four years. We will remain focused on deploying capital in the most effective ways for the benefit of our shareholders. Slide 12 highlights our 2025 market forecast for our three major regions, which have not changed from what we communicated during our December Analyst Meeting.

除了每股 0.29 美元的常規季度股息外，提醒一下，我們還在 2024 年第二季支付了每股 2.50 美元的特別浮動股息。在過去四年中，愛科公司已支付了超過 12 億美元的特別浮動股息。我們將繼續致力於以最有效的方式部署資本，以造福股東。投影片 12 重點介紹了我們對三大地區 2025 年市場的預測，與我們 12 月分析師會議上傳達的內容相比沒有變化。

For North America, we expect demand to be meaningfully lower in 2025 compared to 2024. Despite the recent rally in corn prices, both soybean and wheat prices remain below the long-term average. Farmers are delaying equipment purchases due to higher interest rates and tighter profit margins. We expect the large ag segment to be down around 25% versus 2024. The small tractor segment is expected to be down between 0% to negative 5% after several years of significant decline.

對於北美，我們預計 2025 年的需求將比 2024 年大幅下降。儘管近期玉米價格有所上漲，但大豆和小麥價格仍低於長期平均值。由於利率上升和利潤率收緊，農民正在推遲購買設備。我們預計大型農業部門的規模將比 2024 年下降約 25%。經過幾年的大幅下滑，小型拖拉機市場預計將下降 0% 至負 5%。

For Western Europe, we expect the industry to be down somewhere in the range of zero to 5%. Yields for grain and oilseeds remain below historical averages due to droughts in some areas in excess of rain and others. Input costs for things like fertilizer and pest management remain high, further straining profitability.

對西歐來說，我們預期產業下滑幅度將在 0 至 5% 之間。由於部分地區乾旱、其他地區雨量過大，穀物和油籽的產量仍低於歷史平均值。肥料和病蟲害管理等方面的投入成本仍然很高，進一步限制了獲利能力。

For Brazil, after the significant decline we saw in 2024, we expect industry demand to be relatively flat in 2025. Farmer optimism around weather and positive progression of planting for soybeans and corn is expected to support retail demand for tractors. Brazil is also seen easing interest rates and stabilizing inflation, which will help contribute to similar demand levels as 2024.

對於巴西，在 2024 年出現大幅下滑之後，我們預計 2025 年產業需求將相對持平。農民對天氣的樂觀態度以及大豆和玉米種植的積極進展預計將支撐拖拉機的零售需求。巴西還將降低利率並穩定通膨，這將有助於實現與 2024 年類似的需求水準。

Slide 13 shows the primary assumptions used to create our 2025 outlook, which excludes the Grain and Protein business that we sold on November 1, 2024. We anticipate the 2025 global industry demand to be approximately 85% of midcycle, down from just over 90% in 2024. Our sales plan includes market share gains and pricing in the zero to 1% range, while foreign currency is projected to be around a 3% headwind.

投影片 13 顯示了我們制定 2025 年展望時所使用的主要假設，其中不包括我們在 2024 年 11 月 1 日出售的穀物和蛋白質業務。我們預計 2025 年全球產業需求將達到中期週期的約 85%，低於 2024 年的 90% 以上。我們的銷售計劃包括市場份額增長和 0 到 1% 範圍內的定價，而預計外幣將出現 3% 左右的逆風。

With the announcement earlier this week, given the ongoing uncertainty on the impact to US farmers, retaliatory tariffs, and the effect on other parts of the world, our outlook does not reflect any financial effects from tariffs. As things become clearer, we will update our outlook accordingly.

鑑於本週稍早宣布的對美國農民的影響、報復性關稅以及對世界其他地區的影響仍存在不確定性，我們的展望並未反映關稅帶來的任何財務影響。隨著情況變得更加明朗，我們將相應地更新我們的觀點。

Given the diverse global manufacturing footprint, the announced tariffs related to China, Mexico and Canada would likely have a minor direct effect on our financial outlook. However, retaliatory tariffs or US tariffs on the EU would influence our current financial outlook. Given this dynamic environment, we will remain nimble to address the situation, and we'll update our outlook as things evolve.

鑑於全球製造業分佈廣泛，與中國、墨西哥和加拿大相關的已宣布的關稅可能會對我們的財務前景產生較小的直接影響。然而，報復性關稅或美國對歐盟的關稅將影響我們當前的財務前景。鑑於這種動態環境，我們將保持靈活應對情況，並隨著事態發展更新我們的觀點。

Engineering expenses are expected to be approximately flat compared to 2024. With the continued need to destock the dealer inventory channel, our production hours will be down between 15% to 20% in 2025, as Eric mentioned earlier. These production cuts will be primarily focused in the first half with the first quarter being down approximately 35% to 40% year over year. With the lower level of sales and production in 2025, we expect our adjusted operating margins to be somewhere between 7% and 7.5%. With the structural changes we made to our business, coupled with the cost initiatives we have implemented, we continue to view this outlook as achievable.

預計工程費用與 2024 年相比基本持平。正如 Eric 之前提到的，由於需要持續減少經銷商庫存通路的庫存，到 2025 年我們的生產時間將下降 15% 至 20%。減產主要集中在上半年，第一季產量年減約 35% 至 40%。由於 2025 年銷售和生產水準較低，我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將在 7% 至 7.5% 之間。透過我們對業務進行的結構性變革，加上我們實施的成本舉措，我們仍然認為這一前景是可以實現的。

Lastly, our effective tax rate is anticipated to be between 35% and 38% for 2025, higher than 2024. The reasons for the higher rate are due to lower income in lower tax jurisdictions, primarily in the US and our Swiss legal entity. Turning to slide 14 for our 2025 outlook, which remains the same as outlined at our December Analyst Meeting, our full-year net sales outlook is $9.6 billion, which reflects the market environment, the elimination of the Grain and Protein sales. and roughly a $300 million headwind related to FX.

最後，我們預計 2025 年的有效稅率將在 35％至 38％之間，高於 2024 年。稅率較高的原因是低稅管轄區的收入較低，主要是美國和我們的瑞士法人實體。前往第 14 頁，了解我們對 2025 年的展望，這與我們在 12 月分析師會議上概述的保持一致，我們的全年淨銷售額預期為 96 億美元，這反映了市場環境、穀物和蛋白質銷售的消除。以及與外匯相關的約 3 億美元的逆風。

The lost earnings from Grain and Protein, the adverse FX rates. and the higher tax rate altogether reflect over $1 of non-operational adverse impacts to our earnings. When you layer on the further industry declines, we expect our earnings per share to be in the range of $4 to $4.50. Given the weak market environment, we are modestly reducing our capital spending to approximately $375 million versus the $393 million in 2024, which keeps AGCO well positioned for any future demand inflections. Our free cash flow conversion target remains at 75% to 100% of adjusted net income as we look to further reduce working capital in 2025.

穀物和蛋白質的收益損失，不利的外匯匯率。和更高的稅率總共為我們的收益帶來了超過1美元的非經營性不利影響。如果考慮到該行業進一步下滑，我們預計每股收益將在 4 美元至 4.50 美元之間。鑑於疲軟的市場環境，我們將資本支出從 2024 年的 3.93 億美元適度削減至約 3.75 億美元，這使 AGCO 能夠為未來的需求變化做好準備。我們的自由現金流轉換目標仍為調整後淨收入的 75% 至 100%，我們希望在 2025 年進一步減少營運資本。

Lastly, our Q1 2025 net sales are expected to be approximately $2 billion, down approximately 32% from Q1 of 2024. If you were to exclude the Grain and Protein sales from Q1 of 2024, our sales will be down roughly 26% on a like-for-like basis. Given the lower sales volumes and significant reduction in production hours, we anticipate Q1 earnings per share to be approximately breakeven and on low point for 2025.

最後，我們預計 2025 年第一季的淨銷售額約為 20 億美元，較 2024 年第一季下降約 32%。如果將 2024 年第一季的穀物和蛋白質銷售額排除在外，我們的銷售額將年減約 26%。鑑於銷售量下降和生產時間大幅減少，我們預計 2025 年第一季每股收益將大致持平並處於低點。

We remain confident in executing our strategy and delivering a more resilient business through the cycle. Our adjusted operating margin outlook for 2025 would be over 300 basis points higher than the last time our industry is at around 85% of mid-cycle in 2016. This would be just another example of how we've structurally changed the business for the long term.

我們仍然有信心執行我們的策略，並在整個週期中實現更具彈性的業務。我們對 2025 年調整後營業利潤率的預期將比我們行業上次（2016 年）中期週期約 85% 的水平高出 300 個基點以上。這只是我們如何從長遠角度改變業務結構的另一個例子。

With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator to begin the Q&A.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給接線生開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

（操作員指示） Stephen Volkmann，傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

Hi. Good morning, guys. Thank you. Damon, I'm just going to start off with your Q1 commentary. I guess the implication there would be North America probably has a negative margin in the first quarter, but I don't want to put words in your mouth. Can you just give us a sense of how you're thinking about the profitability by region in the first quarter?

你好。大家早安。謝謝。達蒙，我將從你對第一季的評論開始。我想這意味著北美第一季的利潤率可能會是負數，但我不想強加給你答案。您能否向我們介紹一下您對第一季各地區獲利能力的看法？

Yes, Steve, I think you're right. With the level of underproduction that we're expecting to see in the first quarter, North America would likely be in a negative margin. Europe, we would still expect it to sort of be in that low double-digit range. And then sort of South America, probably a little bit negative as well given the large underproduction there. And then Asia Pacific sort of that low single-digit margin range. But again, I think the key for us is the level of underproduction here. This -- in the first quarter, it's going to be heavily weighted in North America and South America as we look to further drive down the dealer inventories in those regions.

是的，史蒂夫，我認為你是對的。由於我們預期第一季產量不足，北美的利潤率可能會出現負值。歐洲，我們仍然預期它會處於兩位數的低點範圍內。然後是南美洲，由於那裡的產量嚴重不足，可能也會有一些負面的影響。然後亞太地區的利潤率就處於低個位數範圍。但我再次認為，對我們來說，關鍵在於這裡的產量不足程度。第一季度，北美和南美將佔據較大比重，因為我們希望進一步降低這些地區經銷商的庫存。

Okay. Understood. And then as a follow up, I'm trying to get a sense, if you could remind me, of your total North American sales. How much of that is basically sourced in Europe?

好的。明白了。然後作為後續問題，如果您能提醒我的話，我想了解你們在北美的總銷售額。其中有多少基本上來自歐洲？

Yes. So I think if we look at North American sales last year, Steve, in total, about 35% of that came in from overseas. 25% of the 35% came from the EU.

是的。因此，我認為，如果我們看看去年北美的銷售額，史蒂夫，總的來說，其中約 35% 來自海外。這35%中25%來自歐盟。

Great. Okay, that's helpful. I'm good. I'll pass it on. Thanks.

偉大的。好的，這很有幫助。我很好。我會傳達的。謝謝。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

Hi. Good morning. So my question is on the EME margin. It was quite impressive on a 17% sales decline, and you're seeing low double-digit operating margin in the first quarter. So given the cost savings there, how should we think about the mid-cycle margin for that region when volumes do inflect in the future?

你好。早安.我的問題是關於 EME 利潤率。在銷售額下降 17% 且第一季營業利潤率降至兩位數低點的情況下，這一成績相當令人印象深刻。那麼考慮到那裡的成本節省，當未來產量改變時，我們應該如何考慮該地區的中期利潤率？

Yes. I think, Tami, Europe has done quite well with that spend. The market share growth the team has done there, done quite well. Parts has been relatively strong. Generally speaking, we would see in most of our regions sort of that mid-teens margin at around mid-cycle.

是的。塔米，我認為歐洲在這些支出方面做得相當不錯。該團隊在那裡所取得的市場份額增長相當出色。零件表現相對強勁。一般而言，我們會看到大多數地區在周期中期出現中等程度的十幾歲的利潤率。

Got it, okay. That's all I had. Thank you so much.

知道了，好的。這就是我所擁有的一切。太感謝了。

Mig Dobre, Baird.

米格·多布雷、貝爾德。

Yes, thank you. Good morning. Given though you framed Q1 for us, I'm sort of curious as to how you think about dealer inventory progression? Do you think this issue -- this problem largely gets solved in Q1? Or is this more of a Q2 factor? What are some of the benchmarks that you're watching and determining production for Q2?

是的，謝謝。早安.雖然您為我們制定了 Q1 框架，但我還是很好奇您如何看待經銷商庫存進度？您認為這個問題在第一季基本上已經解決了嗎？還是這更多的是第二季的因素？您正在關注並決定第二季產量的一些基準是什麼？

Yes. I think, Mig, so if we go down by the -- if we look at the regions as -- for Europe, we're in good shape. We don't anticipate really any significant changes. I think, for South America, we're working to cut production significantly there. I would say we're probably looking into the second quarter as we adjust production given some of the seasonality of the business there as well as Q1 is, generally speaking, a fairly low selling season. So Q2 is where we'll see more sell out.

是的。米格，我認為，如果我們按照——如果我們把地區看成——對於歐洲來說，我們的狀況很好。我們預計不會發生任何重大變化。我認為，對於南美，我們正在努力大幅削減那裡的產量。我想說，我們可能會研究第二季度，因為我們會調整生產，考慮到那裡業務的一些季節性，而且第一季一般來說是一個相當淡季。因此，在第二季我們將看到更多的銷售。

North America, I think, is the wildcard as we look at we're sitting here with around nine months of inventory despite the lower number of units because of the negative outlook. So you're sort of looking at two variables there. How does the industry evolve over, let's say, the next six months. So if we start to see farmer sentiment improve, grain prices, if you look at corn futures now, I think they're slightly over $5 for May. So a couple of positive data points.

我認為，北美是一個不確定因素，因為我們看到，儘管由於負面前景導致單位數量較低，但我們這裡的庫存量約為九個月。因此，您正在查看兩個變數。比如說，未來六個月該產業將如何發展？因此，如果我們開始看到農民情緒改善，糧食價格，如果你現在看看玉米期貨，我認為 5 月的價格將略高於 5 美元。因此有幾個積極的數據點。

If that improves the sentiment, and we start to see the demand pick up, that would be an ability for us to maybe slow down. But I think in the near term here, it's going to be looking at the days on hand for the dealers, the units to have on hand and taking an aggressive approach to the inventory. So I think that's the one, I would say. Q2 may be a little bit longer depending on how that second-half farmer sentiment looks here in North America.

如果這能改善情緒，而我們開始看到需求回升，那麼我們或許可以放慢速度。但我認為，短期內，我們要專注於經銷商的庫存天數和庫存單位數，並採取積極的庫存方式。所以我想就是這個。第二季可能會稍微長一些，這取決於北美下半年農民情緒如何。

Okay. And if I may, one quick follow up on pricing. Negative in Q4, but you expect it to get better, slightly positive in '25. What gives you that confidence? And again, any commentary by region would be helpful as well. Thanks.

好的。如果可以的話，我想快速跟進價格問題。第四季表現為負面，但預計會好轉，25 年略有好轉。什麼給了你這樣的信心？再次強調，任何按地區劃分的評論也將是有幫助的。謝謝。

Yes. Sure, Mig. So again, we're still with the zero to one positive. If we look at it, we're going to be a little bit negative here in the first quarter. We have some couple of things here. We have some carryover pricing here. If you've heard me talk about the new Fendt 700, we have the Gen 6 and the Gen 7 out there. So we have that year over year still affecting the European margins.

是的。當然，米格。因此，我們仍然處於從零到一的正數。如果我們看一下，我們會發現第一季的情況會有些負面。我們這裡有一些事情。我們這裡有一些結轉定價。如果你聽過我談論新款 Fendt 700，那麼我們已經推出了 Gen 6 和 Gen 7。因此，我們的利潤率年復一年地受到影響。

We're likely going to be slightly negative in South America, not driven by, I would say, pricing or discounts, driven more by a tax law change. In Argentina, where the industry was pricing for the 15.5% tax in Argentina, that stopped in December. We, and I believe the industry as a whole have reduced that. So that comes -- shows up as negative pricing for us, but it's really more of a pass-through for some taxes there.

我們在南美的業務可能會略有下滑，這並不是受定價或折扣的影響，而更多的是受稅法變化的影響。在阿根廷，業界正在為阿根廷 15.5% 的稅收定價，但這項政策在 12 月停止了。我們，以及我相信整個行業已經減少了這一數量。因此，這對我們來說顯示為負定價，但實際上它更像是一些稅收的轉嫁。

North America, we expect to be positive for the quarter and for the full year. So -- but still looking similar to what we said in December, a little bit more geographic if we waited with our exposure to Europe being slightly negative, driving us down to that zero to 1% for the full year.

我們預計北美本季和全年業績將呈現正面態勢。所以 - 但仍然與我們 12 月所說的情況類似，如果我們等待的話，地理因素會更加豐富一些，因為我們對歐洲的風險敞口會略微下降，從而導致全年風險敞口降至 0 到 1%。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的克里斯汀歐文。

Hi. Good morning. Thank you, for taking my question. I wanted to follow up on Tami's question about the margin recovery in Europe, particularly in the fourth quarter and how we think about that flowing through to 2025? Just specifically, can you give us an update on the reorganization at BayWa? Anything else that you might call out that's helping to contribute to that recovery? Thank you.

你好。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想跟進 Tami 關於歐洲利潤率復甦的問題，特別是第四季度的利潤率復甦情況，以及我們如何看待這種復甦將持續到 2025 年？具體來說，您能向我們介紹一下 BayWa 重組的最新情況嗎？您還能指出哪些有助於經濟復甦的措施？謝謝。

Yes. Sure, Kristen. So BayWa, as they've stated publicly, as part of their restructuring efforts, have made a lot of progress. I think the reports from the third parties show that the business is improving. We continue to have a great partnership with them. We're working very closely with them. Their ag business has been extremely strong. And obviously, that's helped the Fendt business. So we continue to be very close with them.

是的。當然，克里斯汀。正如 BayWa 公開表示的那樣，作為其重組努力的一部分，他們已經取得了很大進展。我認為第三方的報告顯示業務正在改善。我們繼續與他們保持良好的合作關係。我們正在與他們密切合作。他們的農業業務非常強勁。顯然，這對 Fendt 的業務有幫助。因此我們繼續與他們保持密切聯繫。

Obviously, as a restructuring initiative, they are not eager to take on a lot of the stock units, and that's been part of our challenge here with Fendt and BayWa is we're doing great pass through to the retail to the farmers. But the stock units as they start to preserve cash, I think we won't see that recover at least here in the first part of 2025. But overall, the market looks good there.

顯然，作為一項重組舉措，他們並不急於接管大量的庫存單位，而這正是我們與 Fendt 和 BayWa 合作面臨的挑戰之一，即我們正在將產品從零售商轉移到農民手中。但隨著股票單位開始保留現金，我認為至少在 2025 年上半年我們不會看到復甦。但總體來說，那裡的市場情況良好。

I think what you should expect to see for us in EME -- again, as you know, macro is the most stable market. We still see it down. But the cost actions, we've talked about a lot of those cost actions as we work through conversations with workers' councils. If you look at the restructuring efforts, we accrued quite a bit in the fourth quarter as we've gained some clarity and confidence on that. We would expect that start to really drop to the bottom line more in the back half of the year as we start to execute on some of those actions here in Europe.

我想您應該會看到我們在新興市場和中亞市場——同樣，如您所知，宏觀市場是最穩定的市場。我們仍能看見它。但是關於成本行動，我們在與工人委員會對話的過程中已經討論了許多此類行動。如果你看一下重組工作，我們會發現我們在第四季度已經取得了相當大的進展，因為我們對此有了一些清晰的認識和信心。我們預計，隨著我們開始在歐洲實施一些行動，這一數字將在今年下半年真正開始下降。

Great, thank you. And then my follow up is related to the free cash flow outlook for 2025. I mean, you mentioned some of the inventory that you want to wind down in the first half of the year. But against the comments that this may be the trough in 2025, how do you think about the working capital in the back half of the year if there's some anticipation that we could see maybe a little bit of volume recovery next year?

太好了，謝謝。然後我的後續問題與 2025 年的自由現金流前景有關。我的意思是，您提到了您希望在今年上半年減少的一些庫存。但是，針對 2025 年可能達到低谷的評論，如果有人預計明年我們可能會看到交易量略有回升，那麼您如何看待下半年的營運資本？

Yes. So again, if I think about our free cash flow, we still feel fairly confident. Again, if I looked at where we delivered just in this 2024, we fell short of our expectations. But I think it's important to remember because of how we work with AGCO Finance, Eric and I both alluded to that we missed our sales by around $300 million versus our expectations. Had we made those sales, that would have come out of inventory and would have dropped right into cash for us.

是的。所以，如果我再考慮一下我們的自由現金流，我們仍然感到相當有信心。再說了，如果我看一下我們在 2024 年的業績，我們發現我們未能達到預期。但我認為需要記住的是，由於我們與 AGCO Finance 的合作，Eric 和我都提到，我們的銷售額比預期低了約 3 億美元。如果我們進行了這些銷售，這些庫存就會減少，並直接轉化為現金。

So that would have put our conversion rate at just around 100%. So we still feel good as we look forward into 2025 knowing that there are some finished goods that we have to work through the system here because what we're carrying is more what we would want in the current environment. And so even if the industry picks up, it won't be sort of a one-for-one build as the industry is recovering because of where we finished the year here falling a little bit short of the sales target.

這樣我們的轉換率就達到 100% 左右了。因此，當我們展望 2025 年時，我們仍然感到很高興，因為我們知道有些成品需要透過這裡的系統進行加工，因為我們所攜帶的更多是我們在當前環境下想要的。因此，即使行業回暖，也不會是一對一的成長，因為行業正在復蘇，因為我們今年年底的銷售略低於目標。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Jamie Cook, Truist.

傑米庫克 (Jamie Cook)，Truist。

Hi. Good morning. I guess two questions. Damon, first, a similar question on South America, given we start off the year negative and just the volatility in the margins, how are you thinking about margins for the full year and sort of the cadence? And then I guess my second question, obviously, you guys announced some restructuring actions that you started, I think, last summer. Given the weakness in the markets, anything more that we're contemplating? And then last, finally, just what's the expectations on PTx in your guidance in terms of sales and profits, if any? Thanks.

你好。早安.我想有兩個問題。達蒙，首先，關於南美有一個類似的問題，考慮到我們今年開局不利，利潤率也不穩定，您如何看待全年的利潤率和節奏？然後我想我的第二個問題是，顯然你們宣布了一些重組行動，我想這些行動是在去年夏天開始的。鑑於市場疲軟，我們還在考慮什麼嗎？最後，就銷售和利潤而言，您對 PTx 的期望是什麼？謝謝。

Yes. Sure, Jamie. So South America, I think for the full year, we would sort of today expect those margins to be similar to where we finished the full year of 2024 sort of in that mid -- sort of higher single-digit range. As I mentioned on the prior -- on one of the earlier questions, it will be negative in Q1 and then we start to pick up some profitability in Q2. Q3 is generally their strongest seasonal quarter there. So we'll see that be the richest or the best profitability and then tamper down a little bit in the fourth quarter, again, driven more by seasonality. But the full year, I'd sort of put it close to where we finished last year.

是的。當然，傑米。因此，我認為，就南美全年而言，我們今天預計的利潤率將與 2024 年全年的利潤率相似，處於中等偏高的個位數範圍內。正如我之前提到的——在之前的一個問題中，第一季的獲利能力將為負值，然後我們在第二季開始獲得一些獲利能力。第三季通常是他們最強勁的季度。因此，我們將看到這是最豐富或最好的盈利能力，然後在第四季度略有下降，同樣，這更多地受到季節性的影響。但就全年而言，我認為它接近去年年底的水平。

On the second part, restructuring actions, so we're on a good pace to deliver the $100 million to $125 million of cost savings by the run rate by the end of this year. At the December Investor Day, I did announce that as we were looking at further efficiencies, better opportunities to leverage global Centers of Excellence, we added another $75 million of run rate savings. Those will not happen likely until run rate of end of 2026 as we start to migrate things to international locations, leverage a little bit more technology.

第二部分是重組行動，因此我們正以良好的步伐在今年年底前實現 1 億至 1.25 億美元的成本節約。在 12 月的投資者日上，我確實宣布，由於我們正在尋求進一步的效率和更好的機會來利用全球卓越中心，我們又增加了 7500 萬美元的運行率節約。隨著我們開始將事物遷移到國際地點並利用更多的技術，這些可能要到 2026 年底才會實現。

So that being said, we're -- as Eric alluded to, we're watching this market very closely. To the extent things get worse or worse than our plans. Obviously, there's always discretionary spend that we can control. We're doing the investments as we feel appropriate for the business for the long term. But at the end of the day, we have to make sure we're delivering a certain level of margin and earnings as well. And so we do have some discretionary cost levers that we could layer on if necessary on top of the normal restructuring.

話雖如此，正如艾瑞克所提到的，我們正在密切關注這個市場。事情變得比我們的計劃更糟或更糟。顯然，我們總是可以控制可自由支配的開支。我們所進行的投資是因為我們認為這些投資對公司的長期發展是有利的。但最終，我們必須確保實現一定程度的利潤和收益。因此，我們確實有一些可自由支配的成本槓桿，如果有必要的話，我們可以在正常重組的基礎上疊加使用這些槓桿。

As it relates to PTx as a whole, so again, as a reminder for the team here when we talk about PTx, that includes our Precision Planting business, our PTx Trimble business, and our Fuse business. When we look at that as a whole, last year's revenues were just, call it, around mid-eighths, and I would expect that business to be relatively flat in 2025 at a similar type of sales level amongst those three groups combined.

因為它與整個 PTx 相關，所以再次提醒團隊，當我們談論 PTx 時，這包括我們的精準種植業務、我們的 PTx Trimble 業務和我們的 Fuse 業務。從整體來看，去年的收入僅為八分之一左右，我預計到 2025 年，這三個集團的業務將保持相對穩定的銷售水準。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

Yes, hi. Good morning, everyone. Eric, I'm wondering if you can just expand the comments you made in the prepared remarks on the company's philosophy on upfront pricing versus subscription pricing within the context of one of your competitors doing aftermarket guidance kits with heavy aftermarket pricing. Can you just talk about what feedback you're hearing in the market, and just your broader philosophy on upfront versus subscription? Thanks.

是的，你好。大家早安。艾瑞克，我想知道您是否可以擴展您在準備好的評論中所發表的評論，關於公司對預付定價與訂閱定價的理念，在這種情況下，您的一個競爭對手推出了售後指導套件，並且售後定價很高。您能否談談您在市場上聽到的回饋，以及您對預付和訂閱的更廣泛的理念？謝謝。

What we -- we aim to be the most farmer-focused company in the industry. And what farmers continually tell us is that they have different appetites in different parts of the cycle. And when they want to purchase something, they'd like to finance it and get it all purchased in the good years. And then when the lean years come, they'd like to minimize their ongoing costs. So they're, in general, not too favorable for subscription fees.

我們的目標是成為業界最以農民為中心的公司。農民不斷告訴我們，他們在周期的不同階段有不同的胃口。當他們想要購買某樣東西時，他們願意籌措資金，並在好年景時把所有錢全部買齊。然後，當歉收年到來時，他們會希望盡量減少持續成本。因此，總體而言，他們對訂閱費不太優惠。

Now there are exceptions to that rule, and we have some -- a subscription model as part of our outrun autonomy system. We've got some subscription aspects to our radical agronomic system. And so there are elements where it makes sense, especially for newer technologies and things like that. But as it relates to the technology I mentioned, which was target spraying, we feel that the feedback we're getting is that they would rather pay for it one time and then be able to use it on a -- have their fixed costs done and that have an ongoing variable cost. Because that way, they can run over the field.

現在這條規則也有例外，我們有一些——訂閱模式，作為我們超越自主系統的一部分。我們對激進的農藝系統有一些訂閱的內容。因此，有些因素是有意義的，特別是對於較新的技術等等而言。但就我提到的目標噴灑技術而言，我們覺得我們收到的回饋是，他們寧願一次性付款，然後能夠在固定成本和持續變動成本上使用它。因為這樣他們就能跑過球場。

So part of the problem is right now, if you have a variable cost, if you run over the field a second time just to capture a few [weak] spots, it's actually very expensive from a variable cost standpoint, and so they don't do that path. We want to be able to do that path, which is one of the features that is attractive with that system. So that's how we think about it, trying to be very farmer-focused and use the subscriptions where it makes sense, especially on newer technologies.

所以現在的問題部分是，如果你有可變成本，如果你第二次跑過該領域只是為了佔領幾個[薄弱]點，從可變成本的角度來看這實際上是非常昂貴的，所以他們不會走那條路。我們希望能夠實現這一目標，這是該系統的吸引力之一。這就是我們的想法，嘗試以農民為中心，並在合理的地方使用訂閱，特別是在新技術上。

Super. And then in terms of the South America performance in the quarter, I wasn't surprised. Can you just talk about what the run rate you expect to be in 2Q, 3Q of that business? I appreciate the -- a little bit of 150 basis points benefit in the fourth quarter, but can you talk about once production cuts are done, what's the margin trajectory that you folks expect to be on this year?

極好的。就本季南美的表現而言，我並不感到驚訝。您能談談您預計該業務第二季和第三季的運行率是多少嗎？我很欣賞第四季度 150 個基點的利潤，但您能否談談一旦減產完成，您預計今年的利潤率走勢會是怎樣？

Yes. I think, Jerry, as I mentioned on the -- maybe in the last question, we expect to be -- given the heavy production cuts in the first quarter, we would be negative operating margin in South America, slightly positive in Q2 as we start to hopefully improve the production levels a little bit there.

是的。傑瑞，我想，正如我在最後一個問題中提到的那樣，考慮到第一季度的大幅減產，我們預計南美的營業利潤率將為負，而第二季度的營業利潤率將略微為正，因為我們希望開始稍微提高那裡的生產水平。

Q3, we should lap the challenges, and we start to see the industry improving. It's also the strongest -- one of the strongest selling quarters for them. So we should see the profitability jump up in the third quarter and then tail back on a little bit more because of the timing of the sales here between South America. And then for the full year, I would say, similar to last year's performance, maybe a little bit below just given the pricing in Argentina that I mentioned on one of the prior questions, but sort of that mid to high single digits.

第三季度，我們應該迎接挑戰，並且我們開始看到行業有所改善。這也是該公司銷售業績最強勁的一個季度。因此，我們應該會看到盈利能力在第三季度躍升，然後由於南美之間的銷售時間而略有回落。對於全年而言，我想說，與去年的表現類似，可能略低一些，因為正如我在之前的一個問題中提到的，阿根廷的定價情況也是如此，但大概是中高個位數。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Kyle Menges, Citigroup.

花旗集團的凱爾·孟格斯（Kyle Menges）。

Thanks, guys. Just wanted to ask a little bit about just anything that you guys or we should be thinking about with upcoming elections in Germany and just any potential impact either pre- or post-election.

謝謝大家。我只是想問你們或我們應該考慮的有關德國即將舉行的選舉的問題，以及選舉前或選舉後可能產生的影響。

No. I think what you've seen -- there's two different factors. One is the country elections and then it's the EU parliament. And we saw the EU parliament move to the right. And I think that's the one that is maybe more important for overall EU regulations relative to climate change policies and restrictions on farmers and things like that. I think it was a bit of a friendly move to farming practices, allowing them to continue to farm the way they want to be farming instead of adding more restrictions.

不。我認為您所看到的有兩個不同的因素。一是國家選舉，二是歐盟議會。我們看到歐盟議會向右轉。我認為這對於氣候變遷政策以及對農民的限制等的歐盟整體法規來說可能更為重要。我認為這對農業實踐來說是一種友善的舉措，允許他們繼續以自己想要的方式進行耕作，而不是增加更多的限制。

As it relates to country specific, maybe that's more leaning toward an impact on how well there will be cohesion between those countries and the US administration. But regardless of who's elected, I don't see a big difference there. So we don't see much impact yet in our scenario planning on country-specific elections.

就具體國家而言，也許這更傾向於影響這些國家與美國政府之間的凝聚力。但無論誰當選，我都看不出有太大的差別。因此，我們目前還沒有看到我們的情境規劃對特定國家選舉產生太大影響。

Thanks. That's helpful. And then I just wanted to touch on the Trimble top-line synergies you're thinking about in 2025. And I think, if I recall correctly, I think you guys have talked about 450 or so Premier Precision planting dealers in North America, but only 50 or so selling Trimble. So just could you help us frame the opportunity there? And do you anticipate getting the 400, basically adding sort of self-Trimble? And how many do you think could be added this year? How fast do you think that can happen? And what do you think of their overall willingness and ability to start carrying Trimble as well?

謝謝。這很有幫助。然後我想談談您對 2025 年 Trimble 營收綜效的考量。如果我沒記錯的話，你們談到了北美大約有 450 家 Premier Precision 播種經銷商，但只有 50 家左右銷售 Trimble。那麼你能幫助我們抓住這個機會嗎？您是否預期 400 將會加入某種自備 Trimble 功能？您認為今年可以增加多少？您認為這會多快發生？您認為他們開始採用 Trimble 的整體意願和能力如何？

Yes. There's been a lot of progress in the fourth quarter, especially on two fronts. One is signing up AGCO dealers to take on the Trimble aftermarket technology and then also to establish the understanding in the market about where we're going with what we call full-line tech dealers. And these are dealers that previously could have been a Precision Planting dealer or could have been a Trimble dealer, and we want them to carry both portfolios going forward so that they've got the full breadth of all technology.

是的。第四季度取得了很大進展，尤其是在兩個方面。一是簽約 AGCO 經銷商來採用 Trimble 售後技術，然後透過所謂的全系列技術經銷商，讓市場了解我們的發展方向。這些經銷商之前可能是 Precision Planting 經銷商，也可能是 Trimble 經銷商，我們希望他們能夠繼續經營這兩家業務，這樣他們就能掌握所有技術的全部範圍。

If you add them all up today, we've got over 1,000 dealers in the marketplace and over 95% of the acres covered with dealers that cover our technology, PTx technology. Now what we don't have fully penetrated yet is the full cross-selling. That's going to be the primary focus in 2025, as well as continuing to build out our AGCO dealer portfolio.

如果今天把所有經銷商加起來，我們在市場上有超過 1,000 個經銷商，並且 95% 以上的土地都被涵蓋我們技術（PTx 技術）的經銷商所覆蓋。現在我們尚未完全滲透的是全面的交叉銷售。這將是 2025 年的主要關注點，同時我們將繼續擴大 AGCO 經銷商組合。

We've got a little over 100 dealers in the AGCO lineup signed up today. We'll be between 200 and 300 by the end of this year, which is where we want to be. We've got the CNH dealer sign-ups about where we want it to be. So our main focus is cross-selling of the full-line AGCO dealers and filling out the rest of our AGCO dealers. We think both of those will make big progress in '25.

今天，我們已經有 100 多家 AGCO 經銷商與我們簽約。到今年年底，我們的員工人數將達到 200 到 300 人，這正是我們的目標。我們已經獲得了 CNH 經銷商的註冊，並了解了我們想要的市場定位。因此，我們的主要重點是全系列 AGCO 經銷商的交叉銷售和填補其餘的 AGCO 經銷商。我們認為這兩項技術都將在2025年取得重大進展。

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.

知道了。這很有幫助。謝謝。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略 (Angel Castillo)。

Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to go back on the PTx. I think there was a discussion around the sales maybe expectation this year. But just curious if you could kind of overlay the expectations on operating income for 2025? And maybe just expand on the impairment charge. It sounds like some of the adoption rates on penetration or position that you're seeing is still good. So just to what extent are you seeing any kind of deterioration around that relative to PTx in particular?

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想回到 PTx。我認為今年的銷售預期已經引起了討論。但我只是好奇您是否可以對 2025 年的營業收入做出一些預期？或許只是擴大減損費用。聽起來您看到的滲透率或地位的採用率仍然很好。那麼，與 PTx 相比，您在多大程度上看到了這種惡化？

Yes, I'll talk about the strategy elements and we'll have Damon talked about the margin projection. If you took a look at all the activities we wanted to do in 2024 and that we're aiming for in 2025, we got them done or more so. We launched the PTx brand. It's well understood in the marketplace. And everybody understands that's the collection of all of these assets that we've gotten is now the strongest mixed fleet precision ag business in the world.

是的，我將談論策略要素，並讓達蒙談論利潤預測。如果您看一下我們希望在 2024 年完成的所有活動以及我們在 2025 年設定的目標，您會發現我們已經完成了，甚至更多。我們推出了 PTx 品牌。市場對此已經充分理解。每個人都明白，我們所獲得的所有這些資產的集合現在是世界上最強大的混合車隊精準農業業務。

We retained our key talent within the business. We retained all our OEM partners in the business. We built up a strong channel I just talked about. We got over 1,000 dealers, and over 95% of the acre is covered. We got to fill that in and make it penetrate better, but we've got a great foundation. We're building the innovation factor where we launched OutRun technology on the automation kit. The data platform team is running at full speed. That's one of the outputs that we wanted out of this deal, and we'll have our first launch coming soon. And we converted the technology guidance systems on our AGCO machines. It used to be about a 20% take rate of Trimble. It's up over 70% now, and we think it will be over 85% in '25.

我們保留了企業內部的關鍵人才。我們保留了所有 OEM 合作夥伴。我們建立了我剛才談到的強大的管道。我們擁有超過 1,000 名經銷商，覆蓋面積超過 95％。我們必須填補這個空白，讓它更好地滲透，但我們已經有了很好的基礎。我們正在建立創新因素，在自動化套件上推出了 OutRun 技術。數據平台團隊正全速運轉。這是我們希望從這筆交易中獲得的結果之一，我們很快就會推出我們的首款產品。我們也轉換了 AGCO 機器上的技術指導系統。Trimble 的採用率曾經約為 20%。目前已上漲超過 70%，我們預計到 25 年將上漲超過 85%。

And so the activities we're aiming for are done. It's just that the market was so depressed that the market demand was down in addition to the last-time buy for CNH continued to run longer than we had expected because it lasted longer in a weaker market. We also implemented significant cost synergies in 2024, and we're going to continue that in 2025. We haven't gotten revenue synergies just because there's not much revenue in this market. But we still are aiming for that, and we still are committed to delivering it as the market recovers. So with that, I'll have Damon maybe give a little more color on margin expectations.

這樣，我們所針對的活動就完成了。只是市場非常低迷，市場需求下降，此外，由於在較弱的市場中持續時間較長，CNH 的最後一次購買持續時間比我們預期的要長。我們也在 2024 年實施了顯著的成本綜效，並將在 2025 年繼續實施。我們沒有獲得收入綜效，只是因為這個市場的收入不多。但我們仍在努力實現這一目標，並仍致力於在市場復甦時實現這一目標。因此，我會讓達蒙對利潤預期給予更多的說明。

Yes. I think, Angel, for PTx Trimble, we do expect the margins to improve in 2025 versus 2024, as you've heard us talk about the integration, the CNH last-time buy, it definitely was a challenging year in 2024. But as we start to see some of that work through the system here. We do see sales up in that part of -- in that business next year, and we see the margin improving year over year.

是的。Angel，我認為，對於 PTx Trimble，我們確實預計 2025 年的利潤率將比 2024 年有所提高，正如您聽到我們談論整合、CNH 上次收購一樣，2024 年無疑是充滿挑戰的一年。但當我們開始透過這裡的系統看到一些工作時。我們確實看到明年該部分業務的銷售額會上升，利潤率也會逐年提高。

As it relates to the impairment, as I said in my comments, we follow a traditional discounted cash flow analysis that's heavily weighted on the near term as you would expect. And just given the industry drop in 2024 and the industry projections for 2025, it put a lot of pressure on the sales and earnings that we had expected relative to the deal model that we had built when we formulated the goodwill. And as a result of that, we had to take the charge here at the end of the fourth quarter.

至於減值，正如我在評論中所說，我們遵循傳統的折現現金流分析，正如您所期望的那樣，該分析在很大程度上側重於短期。考慮到 2024 年的行業下滑以及 2025 年的行業預測，相對於我們在製定商譽時建立的交易模型，這給我們預期的銷售額和收益帶來了巨大壓力。因此，我們不得不在第四節末期採取主動。

But as Eric said and I said, it doesn't change the long-term plan. It doesn't change the technology, the adoption rates, the excitement we're seeing from farmers and from our dealers. It's more of just that DCF and the timing of what we had to recognize when the cycle hit this year or last year versus it hitting two or three years from now.

但正如艾瑞克和我所說，這不會改變長期計劃。它不會改變技術、採用率以及我們從農民和經銷商那裡看到的興奮情緒。這更多的是直流現金流折現法 (DCF) 和我們必須認識到的時機，即週期是在今年或去年發生，還是在兩年或三年後發生。

That's very helpful. Thank you. And then maybe I just wanted to go back to the comment, I think, on free cash flow. Just the confidence to be able to kind of reach that 75% to 100% conversion. Can you just unpack that a little bit more? I think, again, you made some comments around that earlier, but I just want to understand, given the kind of 50% conversion in the last couple of years. And I think we've heard from other peers, maybe timing around pool fund cash payout, just anything that might be impacting or might be a risk? And then just how you think about that confidence on that 75% to 100%?

這非常有幫助。謝謝。然後也許我只是想回到關於自由現金流的評論。只是有信心能夠達到 75% 到 100% 的轉換率。能再進一步解釋一下嗎？我想，您之前已經就此發表了一些評論，但我只是想了解，考慮到過去幾年 50% 的轉換率。我認為我們已經聽到其他同行的意見，也許是圍繞基金池現金支付的時間安排，有什麼可能會產生影響或帶來風險嗎？那麼您如何看待 75% 到 100% 的信心呢？

Yes. Again, today, we feel -- again, if we would have delivered the sales that we were expecting in the fourth quarter, we would have been around 100% conversion in 2024. Falling short on those sales affected the conversion this last year, left me or left us with excess inventory at the end of 2024. So when I think about 2025, we would expect to normalize that finished goods inventory sitting in AGCO's balance sheet, getting that into the channel to the dealers and ultimately to the farmers.

是的。再說了，今天，我們覺得——再說了，如果我們能夠在第四季度實現預期的銷售額，那麼到 2024 年，我們的轉換率將達到 100% 左右。這些銷售額的不足影響了去年的轉換率，導致我們在 2024 年底出現庫存過剩。因此，當我想到 2025 年時，我們希望將 AGCO 資產負債表中的成品庫存正常化，並將其透過通路輸送給經銷商並最終輸送給農民。

And so we still feel good about the conversion rate. I think the one question mark we would have is if the industry starts to recover, and one of the other analysts had asked that question, if we start to see a rapid acceleration of the industry moving into 2026, how much will we have to start building in anticipation? So would we be adding incremental inventory into the system in anticipation of a strong 2026?

因此我們仍然對轉換率感到滿意。我認為我們會有一個問號，那就是如果該行業開始復甦，另一位分析師也問過這個問題，如果我們開始看到該行業在 2026 年快速加速，我們需要提前進行多少建設？那麼，我們是否會在系統中加入增量庫存，以期實現 2026 年的強勁成長？

I would tell you that's a good problem to have if we feel that the industry is recovering right now. Based on our outlook, we don't see that level of extreme outlook for 2016. But I think that would be the one thing we'll watch as we move through the year is that farmer sentiment and how do we plan the production schedule for the back half of the year.

如果我們感覺這個行業現在正在復甦，我想說這是一件好事。根據我們的展望，我們預期 2016 年的前景不會有如此極端的情況。但我認為，我們今年內要關注的一件事是農民情緒以及我們如何規劃下半年的生產計畫。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Mike Feniger, Bank of America.

美國銀行的麥克費尼格。

Hey, guys. Thank you for squeezing me in. Can you just help us understand with North America? I know you touched on this earlier with -- if there are tariffs with Europe, does it change any of your thought process or strategy when we think of Massey? And any big shifts there that allow you to be kind of flexible or how to think about that with North America, if we do start seeing more of this tariff conversation pick back up?

嘿，大家好。謝謝你擠進我。您能幫助我們了解北美的情況嗎？我知道您之前提到過這個問題——如果與歐洲有關稅，當我們想到 Massey 時，這會改變您的思維過程或策略嗎？如果我們確實開始看到更多此類關稅談判重新升溫，那麼有什麼重大轉變可以讓您採取靈活性，或者您如何看待北美的問題？

Yes. Our supply chain team has looked at several different scenarios of what we might do. I think a lot of this depends on what are the rules of the game going forward, what constitutes a tariff what would be required to be local production? And how long do we think it will be in place?

是的。我們的供應鏈團隊研究了我們可能採取的幾種不同方案。我認為這很大程度上取決於未來的遊戲規則是什麼，什麼構成關稅，什麼需要實現本地生產？我們認為它將持續多久？

Any kind of major footprint change usually takes a multi-year payback. And so until we get some clarity on stability and what are the exact rules and details, we don't expect to be making supply chain shifts. But we've got plans on the shelf ready to go if some of those materialize. But right now, we don't have anything in action mode.

任何重大的足跡改變通常都需要多年的回報。因此，在我們明確穩定性以及具體的規則和細節之前，我們不會進行供應鏈轉換。但如果其中一些計劃得以實現，我們已經準備好實施。但目前，我們還沒有任何行動模式。

And I think, Mike, just to add on to give a little bit more color, the team has got an array of scenarios. Again, as I mentioned, the Canadian -- US to Canadian tariffs would be -- would have some effect on us. And so do we shift the land and have some certain products into Canada versus the US? We're looking at things. Do we do some minor kitting here in the US without large-scale investments? That may help us ease the short-term pain. So as Eric said, there are an array of scenarios being running -- run this company, but we want to make sure we have some clarity before we actually execute any of those things.

我認為，麥克，為了補充更多內容，團隊已經準備好了一系列的場景。再說一次，正如我所提到的，美國對加拿大徵收的關稅會對我們產生一些影響。那麼我們是否應該將土地和某些產品轉移到加拿大而不是美國？我們正在觀察一些事物。我們是否在美國可以在不進行大規模投資的情況下進行一些小型配套？這也許有助於我們減輕短期痛苦。正如艾瑞克所說，經營這家公司有各種各樣的方案，但我們希望確保在實際執行任何這些事情之前，我們有一些清晰的認識。

Fair enough. And just lastly, guys, I realize the production cuts are really helping trying to make that progress on the inventory side. You mentioned North America, I think it was nine months versus a target of six. I'm curious how we think about the used side, if you're seeing progress there? And how you kind of help facilitate on the used side as I know you guys are making progress on the new side of the inventory? Thank you.

很公平。最後，夥計們，我意識到減產確實有助於在庫存方面取得進展。您提到了北美，我認為實際需要九個月，而目標是六個月。我很好奇我們對使用方面有何看法，您是否看到那裡的進展？據我所知，你們在庫存的新方面取得了進展，你們如何在二手方面提供幫助？謝謝。

Yes. We don't have as much of a used problem as some of our competitors do. We continue to use pool funds and things like that and other financing tools. But right now, used equipment values are holding up, and used equipment volumes are similar now back to pre-COVID levels, but not at a concerning level for us yet. So we're managing -- using the regular tools in a partnership with AGCO Finance.

是的。與我們的某些競爭對手不同，我們面臨的二手問題並不多。我們繼續使用資金池之類的和其他融資工具。但目前，二手設備的價值保持穩定，二手設備數量現已回到新冠疫情之前的水平，但尚未達到我們擔憂的水平。因此，我們正在與 AGCO Finance 合作使用常規工具進行管理。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Eric Hansotia for any closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Eric Hansotia，請他發表最後評論。

Yes, I'd just like to say thank you for joining us today and the great questions on the call. AGCO has gone through a substantial transformation over these past years, particularly in 2024. It was a big year of change, where we supercharged our Precision Ag portfolio with the PTx brand.

是的，我只想感謝您今天的加入我們並在電話會議中提出如此精彩的問題。過去幾年，尤其是在 2024 年，AGCO 經歷了重大轉型。這是重大變革的一年，我們利用 PTx 品牌增強了我們的精準農業產品組合。

Our team was instrumental in delivering the 8.9% adjusted operating margin result for 2024. That's a high watermark for us at this stage of the cycle and it's 300 basis points better than the last cycle, as Damon talked about. I want to thank each of them for their contributions. It was a big year of lots of hard work, all focused on the farmer.

我們的團隊在實現 2024 年 8.9% 的調整後營業利潤率方面發揮了重要作用。正如達蒙所說，這對我們來說是周期現階段的高水位線，比上一個週期好 300 個基點。我要感謝他們每個人的貢獻。這是辛苦工作的一年，所有的精力都集中在農民身上。

To all of our shareholders, we appreciate your support and looking forward to building value through our transformation program and executing on our Farmer-First strategy. Have a great day, and thanks for your participation.

對於我們所有的股東，我們感謝您的支持，並期待透過我們的轉型計劃和執行我們的「農民優先」策略來創造價值。祝您有愉快的一天，感謝您的參與。

Thank you for joining the AGCO fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. The conference call has now concluded. Have a nice day.

感謝您參加 AGCO 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。電話會議現已結束。祝你今天過得愉快。