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Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the AGCO 2025 fourth-quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.
大家好,歡迎參加AGCO 2025年第四季財報電話會議。(操作說明)請注意,本次活動正在錄影。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Greg Peterson, AGCO Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
現在我將把會議交給AGCO投資者關係主管格雷格·彼得森。請繼續。
Greg Peterson - Vice President, Investor Relations
Greg Peterson - Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks, and good morning. Welcome to those of you joining us for AGCO's fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. We will refer to a slide presentation this morning is posted on our website at www.agcocorp.com. The non-GAAP measures used in the slide presentation are reconciled to GAAP measures in the appendix of the presentation.
謝謝,早安。歡迎各位參加AGCO 2025年第四季財報電話會議。今天早上我們將參考發佈在公司網站 www.agcocorp.com 上的幻燈片簡報。此簡報中使用的非GAAP指標與GAAP指標的調節表已在簡報的附錄中列出。
We will make forward-looking statements this morning, including statements about our strategic plans and initiatives, as well as our financial impacts, demand, product development and capital expenditure plans and timing of those plans and our expectations concerning the costs and benefits of those plans and timing of those benefits. We will also cover future revenue, crop production, farm income, production levels, price levels, margins, earnings, operating income, cash flow, engineering expense, tax rates, and other financial metrics.
今天早上我們將發表一些前瞻性聲明,包括有關我們的策略計劃和舉措、財務影響、需求、產品開發和資本支出計劃及這些計劃的時間安排,以及我們對這些計劃的成本和收益以及這些收益的時間安排的預期。我們還將涵蓋未來收入、作物產量、農場收入、生產水平、價格水平、利潤率、收益、營業收入、現金流、工程費用、稅率和其他財務指標。
All of these forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the statements. These risks are further described in the Safe Harbor included on slide 2 and in the accompanying presentation. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested in these statements. Further information concerning these and other risks is included in AGCO's filings with the SEC including its Form 10-K and subsequent Form 10-Q filings.
所有這些前瞻性陳述都存在風險,可能導致實際結果與陳述中暗示的結果有重大差異。這些風險在第 2 張投影片中的「安全港」部分和隨附的簡報中有更詳細的描述。實際結果可能與這些聲明中所述的結果有重大差異。有關這些風險和其他風險的更多信息,請參閱 AGCO 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,包括其 10-K 表格和後續的 10-Q 表格。
AGCO disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required by law. We will make a replay of this call available on our corporate website later today. On the call with me this morning is Eric Hansotia, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; as well as Damon Audia, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
除法律要求外,AGCO不承擔任何前瞻性聲明的義務。今天晚些時候,我們將在公司網站上提供本次電話會議的錄音回放。今天早上和我一起通話的是我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長埃里克·漢索蒂亞,以及我們的高級副總裁兼財務長達蒙·奧迪亞。
With that, Eric, please go ahead.
那麼,埃里克,請開始吧。
Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Greg, and good morning to everyone joining us today. We closed the year with another strong quarter, delivering an adjusted operating margin of 10.1% and fourth quarter net sales of $2.9 billion, which were up 1% year over year or up nearly 4%, excluding the Grain & Protein divestiture. EME continued to be a powerful driver, delivering 8% growth and extending its multi-quarter record of strong performance.
謝謝格雷格,也祝今天所有收看節目的朋友們早安。我們以另一個強勁的季度結束了這一年,調整後的營業利潤率為 10.1%,第四季度淨銷售額為 29 億美元,同比增長 1%,若不計穀物和蛋白質業務剝離,則增長近 4%。歐洲、中東和非洲地區繼續保持強勁的成長勢頭,實現了 8% 的成長,並延續了其連續多個季度的強勁業績記錄。
On a full year basis, we delivered a 7.7% adjusted operating margin. Adjusted earnings per share were $5.28 and on sales of $10.1 billion, reflecting a 13.5% decrease versus 2024 or just 7%, excluding the divested Grain & Protein business.
全年調整後營業利益率為7.7%。調整後的每股收益為 5.28 美元,銷售額為 101 億美元,與 2024 年相比下降 13.5%,如果不包括剝離的穀物和蛋白質業務,則僅下降 7%。
These results highlight the disciplined execution of our global teams, driven by our three high-margin growth levers, sustained cost discipline and the positive impact of our multiyear structural transformation. We operated at intentionally low production levels. And despite a soft market environment that weighed on industry demand, we ended the year with significantly lower company and dealer inventories compared to 2024, a favorable outcome that strengthens our position and demonstrates meaningful progress.
這些成果凸顯了我們全球團隊的嚴謹執行,這得益於我們的三大高利潤成長槓桿、持續的成本控制以及多年結構轉型帶來的正面影響。我們有意將生產水準控制在較低水準。儘管市場環境疲軟,抑制了行業需求,但與 2024 年相比,我們年底的公司和經銷商庫存大幅下降,這一有利結果鞏固了我們的地位,並表明取得了實質進展。
Our adjusted operating margins are among the best in AGCO's history and the strongest we've ever delivered at this point in the cycle. We have nearly doubled our adjusted operating margins from prior troughs and are close to prior industry peaks, clear evidence that AGCO has structurally changed to a higher performing and more profitable company.
我們調整後的營業利潤率是 AGCO 歷史上最好的之一,也是我們在當前週期階段取得的最強勁的業績。我們的調整後營業利潤率已從先前的低谷翻了一番,並接近之前的行業峰值,這清楚地表明 AGCO 已從結構上轉變為一家業績更好、盈利能力更強的公司。
I want to thank the AGCO team for their disciplined commitment and impressive execution throughout the year. Their agility allowed us to maintain solid performance, repeatedly exceed our expectations and continue advancing our farmer first priorities.
我要感謝AGCO團隊在過去一年展現的嚴謹作風和出色執行力。他們的敏捷性使我們能夠保持穩健的業績,不斷超越預期,並繼續推進以農民為先的優先事項。
Building on the transformational actions taken in 2024, including the formation of the PTx business and the divestiture of the majority of Grain & Protein business, 2025 was a year focused on advancing our strategic ambitions in agriculture machinery and precision technology. Our redefined portfolio and focus are where AGCO wants to be, poised to continue serving farmers and investors better than anyone else when demand strengthens.
在 2024 年採取的變革性行動的基礎上,包括成立 PTx 業務和剝離大部分穀物和蛋白質業務,2025 年的重點是推進我們在農業機械和精準技術領域的戰略目標。我們重新定義的產品組合和重點正是 AGCO 希望達到的目標,當需求增強時,我們將比任何人都更好地為農民和投資者服務。
Our PTx brand continued to gain significant momentum. During 2025, we introduced 14 new products across the crop cycle expanding the industry's most comprehensive retrofit precision ag portfolio. We also made substantial progress expanding our dealer network, ending the year with more than 70 global PTx elite dealers, more than doubling the amount from the start of the year.
我們的 PTx 品牌持續獲得顯著發展動能。2025 年,我們推出了 14 款涵蓋作物生長週期的新產品,進一步拓展了業界最全面的改造精準農業產品組合。我們在擴大經銷商網路方面也取得了實質進展,到年底時,我們擁有超過 70 家 PTx 全球精英經銷商,比年初的數量翻了一番還多。
These dealers sell both precision planting and PTx Trimble products, enabling us to broaden product coverage and deepen customer engagement. This independent retrofit network focused on the mix fleet remains an absolute clear differentiator, providing the comprehensive product expertise and the broad equipment compatibility that today's farmers require.
這些經銷商同時銷售精準播種和 PTx Trimble 產品,使我們能夠擴大產品覆蓋範圍並加深客戶互動。這個專注於混合車隊的獨立改裝網路仍然是一個絕對的明顯差異化優勢,提供了當今農民所需的全面產品專業知識和廣泛的設備相容性。
These PTx elite dealers are supported by more than 300 Fendt, Massey Ferguson, Valtra equipment dealers, 200 CNH dealers, alongside continued sales to more than 100 OEM customers. This expanding footprint is strengthening our global market presence, increasing the number of farmers we can reach with our industry-leading smart farming solutions.
這些 PTx 精英經銷商得到了 300 多家 Fendt、Massey Ferguson、Valtra 設備經銷商和 200 家 CNH 經銷商的支持,同時也持續向 100 多家 OEM 客戶銷售產品。業務的不斷拓展正在增強我們的全球市場地位,使我們能夠透過業界領先的智慧農業解決方案惠及更多農民。
Fendt delivered a standout year of market performance in almost every region. In North America, we gained large ag market share, underscoring the strength of Fendt portfolio and the power of our team of experts and dealers. With some of our largest dealers switching to the IDEAL combine last year is further emphasize the strength of the Fendt full line product offering and our ability to accelerate our performance when North American large ag begins to recover.
芬特在幾乎所有地區都取得了出色的市場表現。在北美,我們獲得了龐大的農業市場份額,這凸顯了芬特產品組合的實力以及我們專家和經銷商團隊的實力。去年,我們的一些最大經銷商轉而使用 IDEAL 聯合收割機,這進一步凸顯了芬特全系列產品的實力,以及當北美大型農業開始復甦時,我們加快業績成長的能力。
Our parts and service business continued to perform well across challenging market conditions. The FarmerCore model, combined with digital engagement, 24/7 online parts access, machine configuration tools, servicing capabilities and industry-leading parts fill rates continue to support this high-margin growth lever and drive meaningful progress.
儘管市場環境充滿挑戰,但我們的零件和服務業務依然表現良好。FarmerCore 模式結合數位化互動、全天候線上零件存取、機器配置工具、服務能力和業界領先的零件供應率,持續支持這一高利潤成長槓桿,並推動有意義的進步。
Strong execution also drove meaningful cost actions in 2025, resulting in a $65 million bottom line savings through continued operating efficiency across the organization, reflecting a real focus on performance improvement. We anticipate a further $40 million to $60 million of incremental savings in 2026. Our overall confidence in the business is reflected in $250 million of share repurchases in the fourth quarter, part of our $1 billion capital return program announced last year.
強而有力的執行力也推動了 2025 年有意義的成本控制措施,透過持續提高整個組織的營運效率,最終節省了 6,500 萬美元的利潤,這體現了對績效改善的真正重視。我們預計到 2026 年將額外節省 4,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元。我們對公司業務的整體信心體現在第四季2.5億美元的股票回購上,這是我們去年宣布的10億美元資本回報計畫的一部分。
As we look at 2026, we will continue to navigate a dynamic phase of the industry cycle. Trade patterns and record global crop production continue to compress farm margins with corn, soybean, and wheat prices near breakeven levels. Despite this environment, our operational discipline positions us well for continued progress.
展望2026年,我們將持續經歷產業週期的動態階段。貿易格局和創紀錄的全球農作物產量持續壓縮農場利潤,玉米、大豆和小麥價格接近損益平衡點。儘管面臨這樣的環境,但我們嚴謹的營運紀律使我們能夠繼續取得進步。
Over time, we continue to expect increased adoption of precision ag technologies as farmers constantly look for ways to profitably increase yields. Entering 2026, current market conditions continue to moderate demand across most equipment categories, yet we remain able to advance our technology strategy and expect long-term positive industry progress.
隨著時間的推移,我們預計精準農業技術的應用將會不斷增加,因為農民一直在尋找提高產量、增加利潤的方法。進入 2026 年,當前市場狀況繼續抑制大多數設備類別的需求,但我們仍然能夠推進我們的技術策略,並期待產業長期的積極發展。
Slide 4 details industry unit retail sales by region for 2025. Industry retail sales across all major regions were lower in 2025 as the market adjusted following several years of elevated demand. In North America, industry retail tractor sales were 10% lower compared to 2024, with larger horsepower categories accounting for a greater portion of the change as the year progressed. Combined unit sales were 27% lower year over year. Current farm income dynamics, evolving green export demand and elevated input costs continue to guide purchasing behavior, particularly for larger equipment heading into 2026.
第 4 張投影片詳細列出了 2025 年各地區的行業單位零售額。2025年,所有主要地區的行業零售額均有所下降,這是由於市場在經歷了數年高需求後進行了調整。在北美,產業零售拖拉機銷售量比 2024 年下降了 10%,隨著時間的推移,馬力較大的拖拉機類別所佔的變化比例越來越大。合併後的銷量較去年同期下降了27%。目前的農業收入動態、不斷變化的綠色出口需求和高企的投入成本持續影響購買行為,尤其是在 2026 年,大型設備的購買行為更是如此。
In Western Europe, industry retail tractor sales were 7% lower than 2024, with most major markets experiencing double-digit percentage movements. Looking at 2026, relatively stable farm income levels and an aging equipment fleet are expected to support industry volumes growing modestly above the 2025 levels.
西歐的工業零售拖拉機銷售量比 2024 年下降了 7%,大多數主要市場都經歷了兩位數的百分比變化。展望 2026 年,相對穩定的農場收入水準和老化的設備車隊預計將支撐產業產量略高於 2025 年的水準。
In Brazil, industry retail tractor sales were 2% lower than the prior year. Growth in smaller and midsized equipment partially offset the modernization in larger tractor categories. While crop production remains healthy and certain trade developments provided opportunities for farmers, demand for larger equipment has not yet shown renewed growth.
在巴西,工業零售拖拉機銷售量比前一年下降了 2%。小型和中型設備的成長在一定程度上抵消了大型拖拉機類別的現代化。雖然農作物生產依然健康,某些貿易發展也為農民提供了機會,但對大型設備的需求尚未出現新的成長。
As in prior cycles, industry demand is expected to recover over time. While farmers are currently prioritizing productivity improvements across their existing fleets, the need to increase yields and meet global agricultural demand remains unchanged. Precision Agriculture plays a critical role in enabling that productivity and our award-winning portfolio positions AGCO well to capitalize on that long-term opportunity.
與以往週期一樣,預計行業需求會隨著時間的推移而復甦。雖然農民目前優先考慮提高現有農機具的生產效率,但提高產量和滿足全球農業需求的需求仍然存在。精準農業在提高生產力方面發揮著至關重要的作用,而我們屢獲殊榮的產品組合使 AGCO 能夠很好地掌握這一長期機會。
AGCO's factory production hours for 2025 are shown on slide 5. To ensure year-over-year comparability, Grain & Protein production hours have been excluded from the 2024 baseline. Fourth quarter production hours were modestly higher than 2024 as increases in Europe and South America more than offset the significant production declines in North America.
AGCO 2025 年的工廠生產工時請參閱第 5 頁。為確保逐年可比性,2024 年的基準線已排除穀物和蛋白質的生產工時。第四季生產工時略高於 2024 年,歐洲和南美洲的增幅足以抵消北美的大幅生產下降。
For the full year, total production hours were down 12% versus 2024, with North America accounting for the largest portion of that adjustment reinforcing our disciplined approach to balancing output and market needs. For 2026, we expect production hours to be broadly flat year over year with a modest lift in the first half reflecting easier year-over-year comparisons and a modest decline in the second half. This cadence ensures production remains well aligned with retail demand and supports ongoing dealer inventory normalization.
全年總生產工時比 2024 年下降了 12%,其中北美佔調整幅度最大的部分,這進一步印證了我們在平衡產量和市場需求方面採取的嚴謹方法。預計 2026 年的生產工時將與去年基本持平,上半年略有成長,反映出去年同期基數較低,下半年則略有下降。這種節奏確保生產與零售需求保持良好平衡,並支持經銷商庫存的持續正常化。
Turning to regional inventories. In Europe, we ended 2025 with dealer inventories at approximately four months of supply, aligned with our target levels. Being at these inventory levels in our largest and most profitable region is an important positive, especially with the industry projected to grow in 2026.
接下來查看區域庫存。在歐洲,到 2025 年底,我們的經銷商庫存約為四個月的供應量,與我們的目標水準相符。在我們最大、最賺錢的地區保持這樣的庫存水準是一個重要的利好因素,尤其是在預計該行業將在 2026 年增長的情況下。
In South America, dealer inventories increased modestly to about five months relative to our three-month target. This reflects adjustments to lower forward sales expectations as industry conditions evolved during the fourth quarter. However, year-end dealer inventory units were down modestly from the third quarter levels.
在南美洲,經銷商庫存略有增加,達到約五個月,而我們的目標期限為三個月。這反映出隨著第四季度行業狀況的變化,對未來銷售預期進行了下調。然而,年底經銷商庫存量較第三季略有下降。
In North America, we achieved another quarter of sequential progress in inventory management, ending the year at seven months of supply compared to eight months at the end of the third quarter. While still above our six-month target, we reduced dealer inventory units by over 9% during the quarter, and by more than 30% for the full year. We have significantly strengthened the quality of our channel inventory heading into 2026, and we will continue to adjust production to better align dealer inventory levels.
在北美,我們在庫存管理方面又取得了一個季度的持續進步,年底庫存量達到七個月,而第三季末的庫存量為八個月。雖然仍高於我們六個月的目標,但我們在本季將經銷商庫存減少了 9% 以上,全年減少了 30% 以上。展望 2026 年,我們已大幅提升了通路庫存的質量,並將繼續調整生產,以更好地匹配經銷商的庫存水平。
Slide 6 summarizes how our strategy continues to deliver even in a muted demand environment. Over the past several years, we've reshaped AGCO into a more resilient, higher-performing company, one that generates stronger margins at the trough and greater earnings power through the cycle. The results we delivered in 2025 are clear proof of that.
第 6 張投影片總結了即使在需求疲軟的環境下,我們的策略也能繼續取得成功。過去幾年,我們把 AGCO 重塑成了一家更具韌性、業績更高的公司,一家在低谷時期能產生更強利潤率,並在整個週期中產生更大盈利能力的公司。我們在 2025 年所取得的成果就是最好的證明。
Our three growth levers, high-margin products, technology-driven differentiation, and a world-class aftermarket business, continue to perform well this year. Each of them contributed meaningfully despite the softer industry backdrop demonstrating that our model scales regardless of where we are in the cycle. This framework is also what positions us and gives us confidence to consistently deliver mid-cycle adjusted operating margins in the 14% to 15% range. It's a structurally different AGCO, more focused on innovation, more disciplined on costs and investments and increasingly driven by high-value revenue streams.
今年,我們的三大成長動力——高利潤產品、技術驅動的差異化以及世界一流的售後市場業務——繼續表現良好。儘管產業環境較為疲軟,但他們每個人都做出了有意義的貢獻,這表明無論我們處於經濟週期的哪個階段,我們的模式都能擴展。正是這個框架使我們有信心持續實現週期中期調整後的營業利潤率在 14% 至 15% 的範圍內。AGCO 的結構已經發生了變化,更加重視創新,對成本和投資更加嚴格,並且越來越受到高價值收入來源的驅動。
Finally, the strength of this model supports 75% to 100% free cash flow conversion. That financial capacity allows us to keep investing in innovation, advancing our go-to-market transformation and returning capital to shareholders, all while maintaining disciplined operational execution. Taken together, these levers explain why AGCO is executing at a higher level today than ever before at this point in the cycle and why we're well positioned to outperform as the cycle normalizes.
最後,該模型的優勢在於能夠實現 75% 至 100% 的自由現金流轉換率。這種財務能力使我們能夠繼續投資於創新,推進市場轉型,並向股東返還資本,同時保持嚴謹的營運執行。綜合來看,這些因素解釋了為什麼 AGCO 在目前的周期階段比以往任何時候都執行得更高,以及為什麼我們能夠很好地掌握週期正常化帶來的機遇,取得優異的業績。
Slide 7 highlights key takeaways from our premier precision ag event, PTx' 2026 Winter Conference. It's an event that brings together thousands of farmers and dealers on site and virtually, and this year was the first showing of the full breadth and depth of the PTx portfolio.
第 7 張投影片重點介紹了我們首屆精準農業盛會 PTx' 2026 冬季會議的主要收穫。這是一個將成千上萬的農民和經銷商聚集在一起的盛會,無論是在現場還是在線上。今年,PTx 產品組合的廣度和深度首次全面亮相。
More than 4,000 farmers most under enormous pressures currently focused on learning practical solutions and strategies with technologies that can be implemented immediately to improve productivity, efficiency and returns, a high-value opportunity in today's market environment. As you would expect, the feedback on the event and new product introductions was exceptional as farmers could clearly see how we are innovating to make them more productive and more profitable.
超過 4,000 名農民目前面臨著巨大的壓力,他們專注於學習實用的解決方案和策略,以及可以立即實施的技術,以提高生產力、效率和收益,這在當今的市場環境中是一個極具價值的機會。正如你所預料的那樣,這次活動和新產品發布獲得了非常好的反饋,農民們清楚地看到了我們是如何透過創新來提高他們的生產力和盈利能力的。
This year, three technologies delivered notable impact. First, SymphonyVision, our vision-based spray technology uses intelligent cameras to continuously adjust application rates based on wheat severity, delivering a 60% chemical and cost savings. This year, we introduced SymphonyVision | Duo, a dual nozzle system that allows farmers to spot spray contact herbicides, while simultaneously variable rate applying residuals, fertilizers or fungicides in a single pass, supporting better input management and higher field efficiency.
今年,有三項技術產生了顯著影響。首先,我們的基於視覺的噴灑技術 SymphonyVision 使用智慧攝影機根據小麥的嚴重程度不斷調整噴灑量,從而節省 60% 的化學物質和成本。今年,我們推出了 SymphonyVision | Duo,這是一款雙噴嘴系統,可讓農民在一次作業中同時進行點噴式接觸除草劑、可變速率施用殘留劑、肥料或殺菌劑,從而支持更好的投入管理和更高的田間效率。
This is a one-of-a-kind injection system that mixes the solutions not only delivers meaningful cost savings from reduced chemical usage, but also delivers significantly higher uptime for farmers than other systems just can't offer. As with our broader precision planting portfolio, farmers own the technology with no per acre recurring fees, reinforcing a strong value proposition.
這是一個獨一無二的注射系統,它混合溶液不僅可以減少化學品的使用量,從而顯著節省成本,而且還能為農民提供其他系統無法提供的更高的正常運作時間。與我們更廣泛的精準播種產品組合一樣,農民擁有這項技術,無需支付每英畝的經常性費用,從而強化了其強大的價值主張。
Second is ArrowTube, a breakthrough seed delivery system designed to improve plant orientation at placement. Conventional systems drop seeds randomly into deferral, which can lead to uneven emergence and leaf alignment. ArrowTube places seeds in an optimal orientation while controlling depth, spacing and singulation, enabling each plant to capture more sunlight and reach its yield potential, a clear productivity advantage. When you think about the significant yield decline for plants that emerge just 48 hours later than the others, the opportunity is huge for our farmers.
其次是 ArrowTube,這是一種突破性的種子輸送系統,旨在改善植物在播種時的方向。傳統系統將種子隨機播撒到苗床中,這可能導致出苗不均勻和葉片排列不整齊。ArrowTube 將種子以最佳方向放置,同時控制深度、間距和單粒播種,使每株植物都能捕捉到更多陽光並達到其產量潛力,這是一個明顯的生產力優勢。想想看,如果植物比其他植物晚出苗 48 小時,產量就會大幅下降,這對我們的農民來說是一個巨大的機會。
Third is FarmENGAGE, launched in 2025, our farmer-facing digital platforms integrate machine connectivity, agronomic insights and task management across brands and platforms. FarmENGAGE brings together functionality from AGCO Connect and FendtONE and will be included in all model year 2026 Fendt and Massey Ferguson machines sold in North America, serving as a central hub for day-to-day farm operations.
第三款產品是 FarmENGAGE,將於 2025 年推出。我們的農民導向的數位平台整合了跨品牌和平台的機器連接、農藝洞察和任務管理。FarmENGAGE 整合了 AGCO Connect 和 FendtONE 的功能,並將包含在北美銷售的所有 2026 款 Fendt 和 Massey Ferguson 機器中,作為日常農場運營的中央樞紐。
Each of these innovations reflect how we listen to the farmer to understand the issue, then deliver practical scalable solutions that address real on-farm needs and help farmers operate with greater productivity, efficiency, and profitability. I couldn't be more excited about the portfolio of award-winning products we have for our farmers, and I look forward to further introductions later this year. I'm even more confident that we will continue to be the most farmer-focused company in the industry, offering industry-leading smart farming solutions.
這些創新都反映了我們如何傾聽農民的意見,了解問題所在,然後提供切實可行的可擴展解決方案,以滿足農場的實際需求,幫助農民提高生產力、效率和盈利能力。我對我們為農民提供的屢獲殊榮的產品組合感到無比興奮,並期待今年稍後推出更多產品。我更加確信,我們將繼續成為業內最以農民為中心的公司,提供業界領先的智慧農業解決方案。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Damon to cover the financials in more detail.
接下來,我會把電話交給達蒙,讓他更詳細地介紹財務狀況。
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Thank you, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Slide 8 provides an overview of regional net sales performance for the fourth quarter and full year. Net sales for the fourth quarter were 3% lower year over year, excluding the favorable impact of currency translation. For comparability, we also excluded the $75 million of sales associated with the divested Grain & Protein business in the fourth quarter of 2024.
謝謝你,艾瑞克,大家早安。第 8 頁概述了第四季度和全年的區域淨銷售業績。不計匯率變動帶來的有利影響,第四季淨銷售額年減 3%。為了便於比較,我們也排除了 2024 年第四季剝離的穀物和蛋白質業務相關的 7,500 萬美元銷售額。
Breaking fourth quarter net sales down by region. Europe Middle East net sales were 1% lower than the same period in 2024, excluding currency impacts. Lower sales across many Western European markets were partially offset by growth in Germany and the UK. Lower sales in tractors were partially offset by better performance in hay tools. South America net sales were 9% lower, excluding currency translation. Results reflected moderate industry demand with reduced sales of tractors and implements offset in part by growth in combines.
按地區細分第四季淨銷售額。不計匯率影響,歐洲和中東地區的淨銷售額比 2024 年同期下降了 1%。西歐許多市場的銷售額下降,但德國和英國的成長部分抵消了這一下滑。拖拉機銷售下降的部分原因被乾草工具銷售的良好表現所抵消。不計匯率變動,南美洲淨銷售額下降了 9%。結果反映出產業需求溫和,拖拉機和農具銷售量下降,但聯合收割機銷售的成長部分抵消了這種影響。
North American net sales were down 9%, excluding currency translation. Results reflected moderated industry demand and our deliberate production discipline to support dealer inventory normalization. Lower sales of sprayers and mid-range tractors accounted for most of the year-over-year change. Asia Pacific Africa net sales were up 3%, excluding currency translation impacts. Higher sales in Australia were partially offset by lower sales across several Asian markets.
不計匯率變動,北美淨銷售額下降9%。結果反映了行業需求的溫和以及我們為支持經銷商庫存正常化而採取的審慎生產紀律。噴霧器和中型拖拉機的銷量下降是造成年比變化的主要原因。不計匯率變動影響,亞太及非洲地區淨銷售額成長3%。澳洲銷售額的成長被亞洲多個市場銷售額的下降部分抵消。
Finally, consolidated replacement part sales were $440 million in the fourth quarter, up 5% year over year on a reported basis and down 1% excluding favorable currency translation. For the full year, parts revenue was $1.9 billion, reflecting 2% growth on a reported basis and flat growth, excluding favorable currency effects underscoring the strong value and consistent progress of this important growth driver.
最後,第四季合併替換零件銷售額為 4.4 億美元,以報告基準計算年增 5%,不計有利的匯率變動則下降 1%。全年零件收入為 19 億美元,按報告基準計算增長 2%,不計有利的匯率影響則實現持平增長,凸顯了這一重要增長驅動因素的強勁價值和持續進展。
Turning to slide 9. The fourth quarter adjusted operating margin was 10.1%, up 20 basis points from the prior year. The improvement reflects excellent and resilient performance in Europe, Middle East again this quarter and consistent discipline across other parts of our business.
翻到第9張投影片。第四季調整後營業利益率為 10.1%,較上年同期成長 20 個基點。這項改善反映了我們在歐洲和中東地區本季再次取得的優異且穩健的業績,以及我們業務其他部分一貫的嚴謹作風。
Margin performance continued to be shaped by factory under absorption and discounting across the industry. Despite that environment, higher sales and production volumes in Europe and our continued cost discipline supported better total company adjusted operating margins during the quarter.
整個產業的利潤率表現持續受到工廠產能利用不足和折扣的影響。儘管面臨這樣的環境,但歐洲更高的銷售額和產量以及我們持續的成本控制,使得公司本季調整後的總營業利潤率有所提高。
By region. Europe Middle East income from operations increased by $57 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, with operating margins approaching 17%. Results were driven by effective pricing execution and a favorable sales mix.
按地區劃分。歐洲中東地區的營業收入比 2024 年第四季增加了 5,700 萬美元,營業利潤率接近 17%。業績成長主要得益於有效的定價策略和有利的銷售組合。
North America income from operations decreased by $33 million year over year and operating margins remain below breakeven. The results reflect lower sales volume and factory under absorption associated with reduced production levels of over 50% aligned with dealer inventory normalization, representing disciplined management of this business.
北美地區的營業收入年減了 3,300 萬美元,營業利潤率仍低於損益平衡點。結果反映出銷量下降和工廠產能利用率降低,這與生產水準降低 50% 以上以及經銷商庫存正常化相一致,體現了對該業務的嚴格管理。
South America operating income was $21 million lower than the prior year, with margins nearing 3%, reflecting lower sales and higher engineering expense. Asia Pacific Africa delivered relatively flat operating income with operating margins near 8%, supported by effective cost management and lower SG&A expenses.
南美地區的營業收入比前一年減少了 2,100 萬美元,利潤率接近 3%,反映出銷售額下降和工程費用增加。亞太及非洲地區的營業收入相對平穩,營業利潤率接近 8%,這得益於有效的成本管理和較低的銷售、一般及行政費用。
Slide 10 shows our full year free cash flow for 2024 and 2025. As a reminder, free cash flow represents cash provided by or used in operating activities less purchases of property, plant, and equipment. Free cash flow conversion is calculated as free cash flow divided by adjusted net income, offering a clear and consistent measure of performance.
第 10 張投影片顯示了我們 2024 年和 2025 年的全年自由現金流。提醒一下,自由現金流是指經營活動產生的現金或使用的現金減去購買固定資產、廠房設備的支出。自由現金流轉換率的計算方法是自由現金流除以調整後的淨收入,從而提供了一個清晰一致的績效衡量標準。
We generated record free cash flow of $740 million in 2025, up more than $440 million versus 2024. This strong improvement was supported by better working capital execution, higher fourth quarter sales and lower capital expenditures year-over-year reflecting effective operational discipline.
2025 年,我們創造了創紀錄的 7.4 億美元自由現金流,比 2024 年增加了 4.4 億美元以上。這一顯著改善得益於更好的營運資本執行、第四季度更高的銷售額以及同比更低的資本支出,這反映了有效的營運紀律。
Our capital allocation priorities remain consistent: reinvest in the business, maintain our investment-grade credit profile, consider acquisitions where we can accelerate technology adoption, and return capital directly to our shareholders, a framework that continues to deliver favorable long-term outcomes.
我們的資本配置優先事項始終如一:對業務進行再投資,保持投資級信用評級,考慮收購以加速技術採用,並將資本直接返還給股東,這一框架持續帶來良好的長期成果。
Following the TAFE resolution last year, we've shifted our philosophy on direct returns to investors with a focus on share repurchases rather than our special variable dividend program. With this focus, we executed a $250 million accelerated share repurchase in Q4 of 2025 under our $1 billion repurchase authorization, demonstrating our commitment to shareholder returns.
繼去年 TAFE 決議之後,我們改變了對投資者直接回報的理念,重點放在股票回購上,而不是我們的特殊可變股息計劃。基於此,我們在 2025 年第四季執行了 2.5 億美元的加速股票回購計劃,該計劃獲得了 10 億美元的回購授權,體現了我們對股東回報的承諾。
Given the strong free cash flow generation in 2025, we will evaluate further opportunities during our normal capital allocation review later this year. We also paid a regular quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share throughout the year, totaling approximately $87 million in dividend payments for 2025, reinforcing a reliable and healthy capital return program. We continue to deploy capital with the discipline to drive long-term shareholder value, supported by the increased flexibility afforded by our repurchase program.
鑑於 2025 年強勁的自由現金流,我們將在今年稍後的例行資本配置審查中評估進一步的機會。我們也按季度派發了每股 0.29 美元的股息,2025 年股息支付總額約為 8,700 萬美元,鞏固了可靠健康的資本回報計畫。我們將繼續秉持嚴謹的態度部署資本,以推動股東的長期價值成長,同時,我們的股票回購計畫也提供了更大的彈性。
Slide 11 summarizes our 2026 market outlook across three major regions. For North America, we forecast large ag industry sales down approximately 15% from 2025's already low levels. The USDA's elevated January crop supply estimates resulted in significant declines in commodity prices and both soybean and corn prices remain below the long-term average. Farmers are delaying new equipment purchases due to elevated input costs and tighter profit margins.
第 11 頁總結了我們對 2026 年三大主要地區的市場展望。對於北美地區,我們預測大型農業產業的銷售額將在 2025 年比本已很低的水平再下降約 15%。美國農業部1月對農作物供應量的預測偏高,導致大宗商品價格大幅下跌,大豆和玉米價格均低於長期平均。由於投入成本上升和利潤空間收窄,農民們正在推遲購買新設備。
The US government's $12 billion farmer bridge assistance program is helping to shore up farmers' balance sheets but is not translated into new equipment purchases at this time. The North American small tractor segment offers a more positive counterbalances livestock and hay economics remain comparatively resilient in the older fleet points to emerging replacement opportunities in 2026. We expect smaller tractors to be up modestly.
美國政府120億美元的農民過渡援助計畫正在幫助農民改善財務狀況,但目前尚未轉化為新設備的購買。北美小型拖拉機市場提供了更積極的平衡因素,牲畜和乾草經濟在老舊車隊中保持相對韌性,這表明 2026 年將出現新的更換機會。我們預計小型拖拉機的銷量將小幅上漲。
In Western Europe, stability from the subsidy framework provides a solid foundation and offset softer wheat prices and geopolitical cross currents. Early season exports improved. Profitability is expected to rise in '26 and winter seeding conditions have been supportive across many markets. The EU continues to benefit from lower interest rates versus other key ag regions, providing a more favorable operating position. We expect Western European tractor volumes to be up modestly in 2026.
在西歐,補貼框架帶來的穩定性提供了堅實的基礎,抵消了小麥價格走軟和地緣政治動盪的影響。早季出口有所改善。預計 2026 年獲利能力將有所提高,許多市場的冬季播種條件都十分有利。與其它主要農業地區相比,歐盟繼續受益於較低的利率,從而擁有更有利的經營環境。我們預計2026年西歐拖拉機銷量將小幅成長。
Brazil's crop environment remains constructive, led by a large soybean harvest and healthy export demand. At the same time, interest rates, credit availability, corn margins, and weather in select regions will pressure demand in 2026. Our plan assumes relatively flat demand for the year with some pressure early in the year and a stronger second half due to potentially improved government support.
巴西的作物生長環境仍然良好,大豆豐收,出口需求旺盛。同時,2026 年利率、信貸可用性、玉米利潤率以及部分地區的天氣狀況將對需求構成壓力。我們的計畫假設全年需求相對平穩,年初會有一些壓力,下半年由於政府支持力道可能加大,需求將更加強勁。
Slide 12 highlights the key assumptions underlying our full year 2026 outlook. We expect global industry demand to remain relatively flat compared to 2025 with the industry increasing from 86% of mid-cycle to around 87% in 2026. Our sales plan assumes share gains, a 2% FX benefit and between 2% and 3% in pricing. At 3%, our pricing is designed to cover material inflation and tariff costs on a dollar basis but will be margin dilutive, even at the high end of the range, impacting our 2026 operating margins and our year-over-year incrementals.
第 12 張投影片重點介紹了我們 2026 年全年展望的關鍵假設。我們預計全球工業需求將與 2025 年相比保持相對平穩,該行業將從週期中期的 86% 增長到 2026 年的 87% 左右。我們的銷售計畫假設市佔率成長,2%的匯率收益,以及2%至3%的價格漲幅。我們的定價策略是以 3% 計算,旨在以美元為基礎彌補材料通膨和關稅成本,但即使在定價範圍的高端,也會稀釋利潤率,從而影響我們 2026 年的營業利潤率和同比增幅。
Dealer destocking advanced in 2025. And we continue to prioritize strong channel alignment in 2026, particularly in North America, reinforcing a disciplined and balanced go-to-market approach. Our guidance reflects current tariff regime and mitigation through cost actions and pricing, ensuring a well-managed framework for navigating policy dynamics. We will adjust our outlook if policy actions change.
經銷商去庫存化進程將在2025年推進。2026 年,我們將繼續優先考慮強大的通路協調,尤其是在北美,加強有紀律、有平衡的市場進入策略。我們的指導意見反映了當前的關稅制度以及透過成本控制和定價措施進行的緩解,從而確保了在應對政策動態方面有一個管理良好的框架。如果政策發生變化,我們將調整我們的展望。
Engineering expense is planned to increase by almost $50 million year over year, representing approximately 5% of sales and ensuring an investment level that fuels supply wheel innovation across the portfolio. As Eric mentioned, we expect further benefits from our restructuring actions of $40 million to $60 million in 2026.
工程費用計畫逐年增加近 5,000 萬美元,約佔銷售額的 5%,確保投資水準能推動整個產品組合的供應鏈創新。正如艾瑞克所提到的,我們預計到 2026 年,我們的重組措施將帶來 4,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的進一步收益。
Production hours in '26 are expected to be broadly in line with 2025, maintaining healthy balance between production rates and retail demand to support ongoing inventory discipline. We expect adjusted operating margins between 7.5% and 8%, reflecting positive structural improvements to the portfolio and benefits from our ongoing cost initiatives was muted due to the price versus cost and tariff equation this year as well as higher engineering spend. Our effective tax rate is anticipated to be 32% to 34% for 2026.
預計 2026 年的生產工時將與 2025 年大致持平,在生產力和零售需求之間保持健康的平衡,以支援持續的庫存控制。我們預計調整後的營業利潤率在 7.5% 到 8% 之間,這反映了產品組合的積極結構性改善,以及我們持續成本控制措施帶來的收益。但由於今年的價格與成本和關稅等式以及更高的工程支出,這些收益並不顯著。預計到 2026 年,我們的實際稅率將為 32% 至 34%。
Turning to slide 13 for our 2026 outlook. Our full year net sales outlook is expected to range from $10.4 billion to $10.7 billion. Based on the sales outlook, flat production volumes, continued cost discipline and pricing execution, we are targeting adjusted earnings per share in the range of $5.50 to $6. This assumes no material changes to existing trade measures.
接下來請看第 13 張投影片,了解我們對 2026 年的展望。我們預計全年淨銷售額將在 104 億美元至 107 億美元之間。根據銷售前景、持平的產量、持續的成本控制和定價執行情況,我們預計調整後的每股收益將在 5.50 美元至 6 美元之間。前提是現有貿易措施不會發生實質變化。
Capital expenditures are estimated to be around $350 million, positioning us for future demand inflection while maintaining investment discipline. We continue to target free cash flow conversion of 75% to 100% of adjusted net income, supported by strong working capital management and ongoing inventory efficiency.
預計資本支出約為 3.5 億美元,這使我們能夠在保持投資紀律的同時,為未來的需求轉折點做好準備。我們將繼續以調整後淨收入的 75% 至 100% 的自由現金流轉換率為目標,這得益於強大的營運資本管理和持續的庫存效率。
For the first quarter of 2026, we expect net sales modestly up year-over-year as we align production with demand and continue to realize the benefits of our cost efficiency initiatives, we anticipate first quarter earnings per share between $0.40 and $0.45. We expect profitability to strengthen as the year progresses, reflecting improved absorption, continued operational execution, and the timing of our cost actions.
2026年第一季度,隨著生產與需求的協調以及成本效益措施的持續成效,我們預計淨銷售額將同比增長,每股收益預計在0.40美元至0.45美元之間。隨著時間的推移,盈利能力預計將有所提升,這反映了市場消化能力的提高、營運執行的持續優化以及成本控制措施實施時機的把握。
As Eric noted, 2025 performance demonstrates consistent execution on our strategy in a more resilient, better positioned business through the cycle. We are confident in delivering continued progress across net sales, adjusted operating margin, and adjusted EPS while navigating the current industry backdrop.
正如艾瑞克所指出的,2025 年的業績表明,我們始終如一地執行策略,使企業在整個週期中更具韌性,處於更有利的地位。我們有信心在當前行業環境下,繼續在淨銷售額、調整後營業利潤率和調整後每股收益方面取得進展。
With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator to begin the Q&A.
接下來,我將把電話轉交給接線生開始問答環節。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.
(操作員說明)Stephen Volkmann,Jefferies。
Stephen Volkmann - Analyst
Stephen Volkmann - Analyst
Great. Good morning, guys. Curious to think about what you're planning relative to inventories in the US? I guess you're still about a month ahead of where you'd like to be. How long does that process take from here?
偉大的。各位早安。很好奇你們在美國的庫存方面有什麼計畫?我想你離目標還有大約一個月的差距。從現在到完成這個過程需要多長時間?
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Steve, so I think as you hit on, we did finish the year a little bit above our six-month target. So we will have some underproduction here likely in the first half of of the year in North America trying to rightsize the dealer inventories. We'll see how the outlook for the balance of the year goes. But at least right now, I would expect sort of under production probably in the around 10% range, give or take, as we continue to rightsize here.
史蒂夫,正如你所說,我們最終的業績確實比半年的目標略高一些。因此,今年上半年北美地區可能會出現一些產能不足的情況,以便調整經銷商的庫存規模。我們將拭目以待今年剩餘時間的情況發展。但至少目前來看,我預計產量可能會減少 10% 左右,上下浮動,因為我們將繼續調整規模。
Overall, as I said in my comments, we did a really good job. We took units down by 9% or so, but just given that 12-month forward outlook we give you, the months didn't really move materially. They only dropped down one month despite the 9% reduction in units.
總的來說,正如我在評論中所說,我們做得非常出色。我們減少了大約 9% 的銷量,但就我們給出的 12 個月展望而言,這些月份的銷量並沒有發生實質性的變化。儘管銷量下降了 9%,但僅一個月後銷量就出現了下滑。
Stephen Volkmann - Analyst
Stephen Volkmann - Analyst
Understood. Okay. And then, Damon, you mentioned in your prepared comments some discounting and yet you guys are looking for, I think, 2% or 3% price for '26. Just square those two for me. What are you seeing in terms of the discounting? And how do you still get that price?
明白了。好的。Damon,你在事先準備好的評論中提到了一些折扣,但你們似乎想要 2026 年款的價格降低 2% 或 3%。幫我把這兩個數平方。您看到的折扣情況如何?那你是怎麼拿到那個價格的呢?
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yeah. So Steve, I think overall, we've seen some competitive pressures, especially in certain markets like South America. It was definitely a more aggressive market there. When I look at the team, though, despite that our fourth quarter came in exceptionally strong. If you may recall, I started at the end of the third quarter call, we guided think price in the range of 0% to 1%. We finished the year just north of 1%.
是的。所以史蒂夫,我認為總體而言,我們已經看到了一些競爭壓力,尤其是在南美洲等某些市場。那裡的市場競爭無疑更加激烈。不過,從球隊整體表現來看,儘管如此,我們第四節的表現還是異常出色。如果您還記得的話,我是在第三季財報電話會議結束時開始的,我們當時給出的預期價格區間為 0% 到 1%。我們年底的收益率略高於 1%。
So the team gained share, took dealer inventories down and had pricing better than our plan coupled with the volume. So the team has done an exceptional job in managing and selling the value of our products relative to the competition. So when I look at the pricing that we have carryover this year going into 2026, we have north of 1% of that 2% to 3% sort of already embedded into our base here. So overall, as we think about the new product introductions coming, what we see in Europe, we feel comfortable in that 2% to 3% range to at least start the year.
因此,團隊獲得了市場份額,降低了經銷商庫存,並且定價比我們的計劃更優惠,銷量也更高。因此,團隊在管理和銷售我們產品相對於競爭對手的價值方面做得非常出色。所以,當我查看我們今年延續到 2026 年的價格時,我們發現其中 2% 到 3% 的價格漲幅已經融入我們的基礎價格中。所以總的來說,考慮到即將推出的新產品,以及我們在歐洲看到的情況,我們認為至少在年初,2%到3%的成長率是可以接受的。
Operator
Operator
Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.
克里斯汀歐文,奧本海默。
Kristen Owen - Analyst
Kristen Owen - Analyst
Good morning. Thank you for the question. I wanted to start here with your outlook for Europe. I mean that has continued to outperform for you guys. Can you just give us a sense of what's happening on the ground there? I mean we've seen a little bit of compression in some of the dairy margins recently. So maybe just give us a sense of like farmer sentiment there, what you're seeing in terms of demand? And maybe ask you to double-click on the pricing acceptance that you're seeing there?
早安.謝謝你的提問。我想先從您對歐洲的看法開始談起。我的意思是,你們這邊的表現一直都很好。能簡單介紹一下當地的情況嗎?我的意思是,我們最近看到一些乳製品行業的利潤率有所下降。所以,您能否向我們介紹一下農民的感受,以及您觀察到的需求狀況?或許還可以請您雙擊確認您看到的價格?
Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Sure. Yeah, I'll take that one, Kristen. And if you take a start -- look at the industry to start off with, and one of the things that we watch is average age of the fleet. And it's been climbing steeply in EME as it's been in North America, but let's stay on EME for now. It's almost back to its record peak age and that's creating just a lot of pent-up demand for new products. And so that's number one. That's kind of where the fleet is.
當然。好的,我選那個,克莉絲汀。如果要從某個行業入手——首先要關注的是整個行業,而我們關注的其中一點就是船隊的平均年齡。東地中海地區和北美地區一樣,東地中海地區的漲幅也很大,但我們現在還是先關注東地中海地區吧。它幾乎已經恢復到歷史最高年齡,這造成了對新產品的巨大需求。這是第一點。艦隊大概就在那附近。
Farmer sentiment is actually relatively positive. We had a field tech days this fall, spent time at Agritechnica and spent time with thousands of farmers at Agritechnica, the feedback that we were getting was more positive than we expected. So although the CEMA barometer is kind of just hovering in the same spot, which is one of the prediction models, we're bullish that we think the market is going to be up in EME this year.
農民情緒其實相對樂觀。今年秋季,我們舉辦了田間技術日活動,參加了 Agritechnica 展會,並與數千名農民進行了交流,得到的回饋比我們預期的要積極得多。因此,儘管 CEMA 晴雨表一直徘徊在同一個位置(這是預測模型之一),但我們看好 EME 市場今年將會上漲。
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
And I think, Kristen, if I go to your other questions here, overall, the demand profiles remain relatively strong. Their dealer inventories, as I made in the comments or where Eric made, we were right around four months. So we're right where we want to be from a dealer inventory standpoint pricing in Europe finished the year quite strong. We had over 3% pricing in Europe in the fourth quarter on top of that strong volume growth with expectations as well. And so we have relatively good carryover going into 2026 in Europe pricing as well.
克里斯汀,我認為,如果我回答你提出的其他問題,總體而言,需求狀況仍然相對強勁。正如我在評論中提到的,或者埃里克提到的,他們的經銷商庫存大約夠用四個月。所以從經銷商庫存的角度來看,我們正處於理想的狀態;歐洲的定價在年底表現強勁。第四季度,我們在歐洲的定價上漲了 3% 以上,同時銷量也實現了強勁成長,符合預期。因此,到 2026 年,歐洲的定價也將保持相對良好的成長動能。
And then you layer on the new product introductions that we showed at Agritechnica. We've got some great new products out there. The Fendt 800, it's going to be a hugely successful product coupled with some of the other ones. So again, the European team has continued -- despite the backdrop here, the European team is continuing to hit on all cylinders and doing very well in gaining share holding their margins at exceptionally high levels for us and gives us a lot of confidence as we go into '26 in that market.
然後再加上我們在 Agritechnica 展會上展示的新產品。我們推出了一些很棒的新產品。Fendt 800 將會是一款非常成功的產品,再加上其他一些產品,它一定會大獲成功。所以,儘管背景如此,歐洲團隊依然保持著強勁的勢頭,在市場份額的獲取方面表現出色,利潤率也保持在極高的水平,這讓我們對2026年在該市場的前景充滿信心。
Kristen Owen - Analyst
Kristen Owen - Analyst
That's great. And then my follow-up question just is here on the cost savings actions. I think you called out $65 million bottom line benefit in savings in 2025, another $40 million to $60 million in '26. Can you just remind us where are the big buckets of those cost savings are coming from? And maybe tie that back to what you outlined for the 2029 targets, where you're seeing those cost savings come through?
那太棒了。那麼,我的後續問題就是關於節省成本的措施。我認為你指出,到 2025 年,公司將節省 6,500 萬美元的淨收益,到 2026 年還將節省 4,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元。可以提醒我們一下,這些節省成本的大筆資金究竟來自哪裡嗎?或許可以把這一點與您之前概述的 2029 年目標連結起來,看看您是如何看到成本節約實現的?
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yeah, sure. Good question, Kristen. And geographically, I would say they're very similar to our revenue split. So we're seeing them across all of our four regions the vast majority of this is coming through or in the SG&A bucket. So a lot of -- as AGCO is a company that has been built through acquisitions, we spent a lot of time in the last couple of years really trying to standardize and simplify our processes.
當然可以。問得好,克里斯汀。從地理分佈來看,我認為他們的收入組成與我們非常相似。因此,我們在所有四個地區都看到了這種情況,其中絕大多數都計入了銷售、一般及行政費用。因此,由於 AGCO 是一家透過收購建立的公司,我們在過去幾年花了很多時間來真正努力實現流程的標準化和簡化。
Once we've done that, how do we move them into lower-cost opportunities, either offshoring them to other AGCO locations or potentially outsourcing them to third-party providers who can do that well for us. And so we've seen a lot of savings coming from that shift. And at the same time, we believe we can even leverage artificial intelligence more and more within the company where we can automate those processes, streamline that, making it easier for our dealers, easier for our customers and easier for our associates.
一旦我們完成了這些,我們該如何將它們轉移到成本更低的機會中?是將它們轉移到 AGCO 的其他地點,還是可能將它們外包給能夠很好地為我們做到這一點的第三方供應商?因此,我們看到這種轉變帶來了大量的成本節約。同時,我們相信我們甚至可以在公司內部越來越多地利用人工智慧,實現流程自動化,簡化流程,從而讓我們的經銷商、客戶和員工的工作更輕鬆。
So we're seeing some good momentum on the AI side of the house as well by just streamlining the work and moving it into a more technology advanced product. You're right, we did about $65 million in savings this year. We have another $40 million to $60 million in savings coming in 2026.
因此,我們看到人工智慧方面也取得了一些良好的發展勢頭,這得益於工作流程的簡化以及將其轉化為技術更先進的產品。你說得對,我們今年節省了大約 6500 萬美元。2026年我們還將節省4000萬至6000萬美元。
As I've mentioned on some prior calls, given the industry downturn, we've been looking to accelerate some of those cost actions that we saw in '26 into 2025 and that was part of the benefit that we saw in the fourth quarter. So as I think about where we are at the end of 2025, the run rate savings is about $190 million. So we're already in line with what we told the investors in December of 2024 as to how we would run rate out of 2026. So we pulled some things in.
正如我在之前的幾次電話會議中提到的,鑑於行業低迷,我們一直在尋求將我們在 2026 年看到的一些成本控制措施提前到 2025 年,這也是我們在第四季度看到的部分收益。因此,當我思考 2025 年底的情況時,預計每年可節省約 1.9 億美元。所以,我們目前的做法與我們在 2024 年 12 月向投資者宣布的 2026 年利率運行計劃一致。所以我們引進了一些東西。
Now we got a lot of that in the fourth quarter. So you're still going to see the absolute dollars come to the bottom line here in 2026. But from a run rate savings, we're already at about $190 million. So we'll probably get a little bit north of that $200 million by the end of '26. So very well positioned for that particular bucket on delivering to the 14% to 15% adjusted operating margin at mid-cycle that we talked about at our last Investor Day.
第四節我們遇到了很多這種情況。所以到 2026 年,你仍然會看到美元的絕對值最終反映在利潤上。但以正常速度計算,我們已經節省了約 1.9 億美元。所以到 2026 年底,我們可能會稍微超過 2 億美元。因此,該公司在實現我們在上次投資者日上提到的周期中期 14% 至 15% 的調整後營業利潤率方面,處於非常有利的地位。
Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Maybe I'll just add a little bit on that one. This is a project reimagined that Damon was describing and 700 projects that are all managed very tightly going through the stage gates, that's taking out the $200 million in overhead. What's still in front of us is more work left to do on AI, as Damon talked about. We've got about 160 Agentic AI projects in flight right now, 50 of them completely done, but a lot of them in flight.
是的。或許我會在那上面再補充一點。這是達蒙所描述的重新構想的項目,700 個項目都經過嚴格管理,逐一通過各個階段的審批,這樣就能節省 2 億美元的管理費用。正如達蒙所說,擺在我們面前的還有人工智慧方面更多的工作要做。我們目前有大約 160 個智能體人工智慧專案正在進行中,其中 50 個已經完全完成,但還有很多專案正在進行中。
And then shift to low-cost country. That's still in front of us as well. We're aggressively going after that in '26 and '27. Much of our supply base is in high-cost countries, we're aggressively moving that. So overhead kind of towards the tail end and very mature. Now we're going after product cost really aggressively.
然後轉移到低成本國家。這個問題仍然擺在我們面前。我們將在 2026 年和 2027 年積極爭取實現這一目標。我們的供應鏈大多位於高成本國家,我們正在積極轉移這些供應鏈。所以,頂部部分有點像尾聲部分,而且非常成熟。現在我們正在大力降低產品成本。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Mig Dobre, Baird.
(操作說明)Mig Dobre,Baird。
Mircea (Mig) Dobre - Analyst
Mircea (Mig) Dobre - Analyst
I found your comments on 2025 being the biggest year of share gain to be really interesting. And I'm wondering if you can maybe give us a little more context there as I understood it, it's North America. What's sort of specific to some of the things that you've been doing relative to maybe competitors pulling back from the market if that at all was a factor?
我覺得你關於2025年將是市佔率成長最快的一年的評論非常有趣。我想請您提供更多背景信息,據我了解,這裡指的是北美。相對於競爭對手可能退出市場這一因素,你們採取的一些具體措施有哪些?
And PTx, can we talk a little bit about how you see that progressing as well? It seems like the market, to some extent, are starting to stabilize here. Do you think PTx can be a source of outgrowth, especially on the retrofitting part of the business as we think about '26 and even '27?
PTx,我們能否也談談您對這方面進展的看法?看來這裡的市場在某種程度上開始趨於穩定。您認為 PTx 能否成為業務成長的源泉,尤其是在我們展望 2026 年甚至 2027 年時,在改造業務方面?
Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Thanks, Mig. A few comments. One, overall, AGCO turned in the highest market share in our history in 2025, and that's global. So all over, when you take a look at where farmers are seeing value, they voted with their order book to come to AGCO.
是的。謝謝,米格。幾點說明。總體而言,AGCO 在 2025 年取得了公司歷史上最高的市場份額,而且是全球市場份額。所以,放眼全球,當你觀察農民認為價值所在的地方時,你會發現他們用訂單簿投票選擇了 AGCO。
What's underneath that? Net Promoter Score, which is our customer feedback to AGCO, hit its all-time high in '25. So the perception of the overall value of the product, the dealer performance, the services, the data management, data platform, all of that is coming together. And we feel like it's fueled for growth. We had a record patent filing in 2025.
下面是什麼?淨推薦值(Net Promoter Score,即客戶對 AGCO 的回饋)在 2025 年達到了歷史最高水準。因此,人們對產品整體價值、經銷商表現、服務、資料管理、資料平台等的認知正在融合在一起。我們感覺它正朝著成長的方向發展。我們在 2025 年創下了專利申請數量的紀錄。
So we think we've got a great set of innovations continuing to come through. So that's the macro. Then you drill into North America, it was the largest one-year gain in market share for large ag in North America. Largely, our portfolio has been what it is. It's now working with the dealers to get the most out of our partnership with our dealers to serve customers.
所以我們認為我們有一系列優秀的創新成果正在不斷湧現。這就是巨集的工作原理。然後你深入分析北美市場,你會發現這是北美大型農業企業市場份額單年增幅最大的一年。總體而言,我們的投資組合一直保持現狀。目前,該公司正與經銷商合作,以最大限度地發揮與經銷商的合作關係,並更好地服務客戶。
We've got several focus areas. It's not so much about conquering white space. It's largely about penetrating the space that dealers are already in. And so we've been looking at performance by county and getting a very granular work plan together with our major dealers and saying, how do we go change how we're supporting the farmers.
我們有幾個重點領域。關鍵不在於佔領空白區域。這主要是為了打入經銷商已經佔據的市場領域。因此,我們一直在按縣查看業績,並與主要經銷商一起制定非常細緻的工作計劃,探討如何改變我們支持農民的方式。
About 85% of our big dealers now have adopted FarmerCore, at least the early phases of it. They're showing where their service trucks are and doing much more of the work on farm. So that FarmerCore, combined with detailed work with our dealers, matched up with an industry-leading product portfolio, we think is starting to show the early days. We also made a bit of an org change to even sharpen our focus on North America. So that's kind of the machinery side of the business.
目前,我們約 85% 的大經銷商已經採用了 FarmerCore,至少是其早期階段。他們會展示服務車輛的位置,並在農場承擔更多的工作。因此,FarmerCore 與我們的經銷商進行了細緻的合作,並配備了業界領先的產品組合,我們認為這已經開始顯現出早期跡象。我們也進行了一些組織架構調整,以便更加專注於北美市場。以上就是公司機械設備方面的業務。
Now if we switch over to PTx, had 14 product launches. There's essentially an innovation and an education side to that business as well. On innovation, we had 14 product launches way ahead of what we would have expected a year or two ago. The feedback at Winter Conference, as I talked about, I go to that every single year, super strong. Some of the best farmers in the world. I think it was one of our best Winter Conferences.
現在如果我們切換到 PTx,它有 14 款產品發布。該行業本質上也包含創新和教育兩個面向。在創新方面,我們推出了 14 款產品,遠遠超出了一兩年前的預期。正如我之前提到的,我每年都會參加冬季會議,得到的回饋非常強烈。世界上一些最優秀的農民。我認為這是我們舉辦過的最棒的冬季會議之一。
So the innovation engine is going strongly. But the bulk of the work now is on channel development and establishing our elite dealers, which is those dealers that carry the full product line. They're the tech dealers. They don't sell tractors and combines, they just sell tech, establishing them. We've grown that to a little over 70 dealers now. We only had about 40 and -- we have added about 40 in 2025.
所以創新引擎運作強勁。但現在大部分的工作是通路開發和建立我們的精英經銷商,也就是那些銷售全線產品的經銷商。他們是技術經銷商。他們不賣拖拉機和聯合收割機,他們只賣技術,並建立這些設備。現在我們已經發展到70多家經銷商了。我們之前只有大約 40 個,而且——我們在 2025 年又增加了大約 40 個。
So it's a channel story there as well. If you look at retrofit, it only is down about a third as much as the overall market. So our thesis all along about serving farmers, serving the mixed fleet, serving every farmer regardless of brand, is playing out as long as you keep innovating. That farmers are thirsty to be, whether they're in a peak or a trough market, they are thirsty to be more productive and profitable.
所以這也是頻道層面的一個故事。如果只看改造項目,其降幅只有整體市場的三分之一左右。所以,我們一直以來關於服務農民、服務混合車隊、服務每位農夫(無論品牌為何)的理念,只要你不斷創新,就能得以實現。無論市場行情好壞,農民都渴望提高生產力,增加利潤。
Mircea (Mig) Dobre - Analyst
Mircea (Mig) Dobre - Analyst
Appreciate the color. That was really helpful. And then I guess my follow-up, going back to EMEA, can you talk a little bit about how we should think about margins? I mean margin here in '25 surprised, at least relative to our model pretty consistently. Should we be thinking additional margin expansion in '26, especially as maybe volumes here get a little bit better?
欣賞這種顏色。那真的很有幫助。然後,我想繼續追問,回到 EMEA 地區,您能談談我們應該如何看待利潤率嗎?我的意思是,2025 年的利潤率令人驚訝,至少相對於我們的模型而言,一直都很穩定。我們是否應該考慮在 2026 年進一步擴大利潤率,尤其是在銷售可能略有好轉的情況下?
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yeah. Mig, I think, overall, I think you're going to see the European margins stay relatively consistent here in '26 versus 2025 on an annual basis. It may mix a little bit in quarter depending on production schedules, timing of pricing actions. But generally speaking, I would expect to see Europe right around that 15% operating margin where they finished last year.
是的。Mig,我認為,總體而言,我認為從年度角度來看,2026 年和 2025 年歐洲的利潤率將保持相對穩定。根據生產計劃和定價策略的時機,季度內可能會略有波動。但總的來說,我預計歐洲的營業利潤率將維持在去年的 15% 左右。
Operator
Operator
Jamie Cook, Truist.
Jamie Cook,Truist。
Jamie Cook - Analyst
Jamie Cook - Analyst
Hi, good morning. A nice quarter. I guess, Damon, just two questions. You just answered the question on EME margins. Just wondering how we're thinking about margins or sorry, losses in North America in 2026 relative to 2025, given the top line outlook and how -- where we end up in South America with concerns about some of the discounting?
您好,早安。不錯的四分之一。達蒙,我想問你兩個問題。你剛剛回答了關於EME利潤率的問題。我想知道,考慮到營收前景,我們是如何看待 2026 年北美地區的利潤率(或更準確地說是虧損)與 2025 年相比的?以及考慮到一些折扣問題,我們在南美地區的最終結果又會如何?
I guess then on the positive, the operating cash flow number was very strong in the fourth quarter for the year. So was there anything unusual in that? Is there any reason to believe free cash flow conversion has opportunities to improve from here? Thank you.
那麼,正面的一面是,第四季的經營現金流數據非常強勁。那件事有什麼不尋常之處嗎?有沒有理由相信自由現金流轉換率還有提升空間?謝謝。
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Jamie, and I think on North America, we're -- as I -- in one of the earlier questions, we will be underproducing relative to retail in the first half of the year. So you're going to see the North American margins are going to be negative, likely for the first two to three quarters. A little bit too early to see how they play out in the fourth quarter right now given the industry outlook, but I think for us, we'll see Q1 and Q2 will likely be worse than Q1 and Q2 last year given the underproduction and the decline in the large ag market.
傑米,我認為在北美,正如我在之前的問題中提到的,今年上半年我們的產量將低於零售需求。因此,北美地區的利潤率很可能在前兩到三個季度為負值。鑑於目前的產業前景,現在判斷第四季的情況還為時過早,但我認為,考慮到產量不足和大型農產品市場的下滑,我們第一季和第二季的業績可能會比去年第一季和第二季更糟。
And then hopefully, we'll start to see the margins improve year over year, but still be down in Q3, which is likely a negative for the full year. So -- but we'll see how that fourth quarter starts to pan out. Fourth quarter free cash flow, again, as I said in my comments, just great performance, record free cash flow for the year. A lot of that was to do with the incremental volume that we saw flow through in North America and the significant volume increase we saw in South -- sorry, in Europe.
然後,我們希望利潤率能夠逐年提高,但第三季仍將下降,這可能會對全年業績產生負面影響。所以——但我們拭目以待第四季的比賽結果。第四季自由現金流,正如我在評論中所說,表現非常出色,創下年度自由現金流紀錄。這很大程度上與我們在北美看到的流量增量以及我們在南歐(抱歉,是歐洲)看到的流量顯著增長有關。
As you know, Jamie, we sell those receivables to AGCO Finance so that receivable translates into cash for us very quickly. So great results for us there. As I think about '26, we still feel comfortable in that conversion ratio of 75% to 100% of adjusted net income. So we'll stick with that for 2026.
傑米,你知道,我們會把這些應收帳款賣給 AGCO Finance,這樣這些應收帳款就能很快轉化為我們的現金。所以,我們那邊取得了非常好的成績。展望 2026 年,我們仍然覺得調整後淨收入的 75% 到 100% 的轉換率是可以接受的。所以2026年我們將繼續沿用這個方案。
If I think about working capital here for '26, again, I expect us to continue to refine our inventory, but we'll see how the build comes up, as the team has done a really nice job with forecasting and getting the scheduling in our factories better, helping take out some of that working capital in the system. So I'm hopeful that there's a little bit of a modest improvement in working capital in '26 as well.
如果我考慮 2026 年的營運資金,我預計我們會繼續優化庫存,但我們會看看生產情況如何,因為團隊在預測和改進工廠排產方面做得非常好,這有助於減少系統中的一些營運資金。所以我希望2026年營運資金狀況也能略有改善。
Operator
Operator
Jerry Revich, Wells Fargo.
傑瑞·雷維奇,富國銀行。
Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst
Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst
I'm wondering if we could just talk about your Precision Planting product line specifically, what kind of demand are you anticipating for this planting season? How does '26 versus '25 look for that product on a retrofit and first-fit basis, if you wouldn't mind?
我想問一下,我們能否具體談談您的精準播種產品線?您預計本播種季的需求量是多少?如果你不介意的話,能否談談 '26' 和 '25' 這兩個年份的產品在改造和首次安裝方面有何不同?
Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we're expecting the market in general to be down in North America as the overall market kind of moves in the same direction. But we think that there's going to be enough attention on the retrofit business that it won't move down as much. And there's a lot of interest in ArrowTube. That's the new seed placement launch that we had where it places the seed tip down and at the right orientation. So when it comes out of the ground, it -- perfect emergence and the leaves have more capture of sunlight.
是的,我們預期北美市場整體將下跌,因為整體市場走勢大致相同。但我們認為,改造業務會受到足夠的關注,因此價格不會下跌太多。很多人對 ArrowTube 有興趣。這是我們新推出的種子放置方式,它可以將種子尖端朝下並以正確的方向放置。所以當它破土而出時,就能完美萌發,葉子也能更好地吸收陽光。
That's unique to precision planting. There's nothing else like it in the world, and we think that that's going to generate a lot of attention. But so is the dual boom spray system. So we're pretty bullish those two hardware products, combined with our FarmENGAGE platform. We think that there's a lot of interest in the precision planning market, especially those two are predominantly biggest hits for North America.
這是精準播種獨有的。世界上再也沒有其他類似的東西了,我們認為這會引起廣泛關注。但雙噴桿噴灑系統也是如此。因此,我們對這兩款五金產品以及我們的 FarmENGAGE 平台都非常看好。我們認為精準規劃市場有許多值得關注的地方,尤其是這兩個市場在北美地區最為熱門。
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yeah. And Jerry, just to put some numbers, I know we've had a couple of questions on PTx. So 2025, the PTx team did an exceptional job. They hit their numbers. They finished the year right around $860 million. So credit to the team, they were on forecast or above every quarter, so a little bit better than where we finished 2024.
是的。傑瑞,我舉個例子,我知道我們已經收到一些關於 PTx 的問題。所以,2025年,PTx團隊做得非常出色。他們達到了目標。他們最終的年收入約為 8.6 億美元。所以要讚揚團隊,他們每個季度都達到了預期目標或超出了預期,比我們 2024 年的最終結果要好一些。
And for 2026, again, as Eric alluded to, we do see the retrofit market doing better than the equipment market. And I would say right now, we see the '26 PTx revenue flat to modestly up versus the $860 million that they finished this year here. So good performance by the team and a lot of new products, as Eric touched on, giving us some good momentum, especially on that retrofit channel.
至於 2026 年,正如艾瑞克所暗示的那樣,我們預計改造市場將比設備市場表現更好。我認為目前來看,PTx 2026 年的營收將與今年 8.6 億美元的營收持平或略有成長。正如艾瑞克所提到的,團隊表現出色,並且推出了許多新產品,這給我們帶來了良好的發展勢頭,尤其是在改造管道方面。
Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst
Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst
Well, that's a good year given the backdrop. And in terms of overall cost structure, obviously, you folks have done a lot of work. Can you talk about any incremental opportunities that you're considering, obviously, the tariff headwinds are pretty painful? Do we see more potential opportunities if we think about the cost structure exiting '26 versus starting '26?
考慮到當時的社會背景,這算是不錯的一年了。就整體成本結構而言,顯然,你們做了很多工作。您能否談談您正在考慮的任何新增機會?顯然,關稅帶來的不利影響相當嚴重。如果我們考慮 2026 年結束時的成本結構與 2026 年開始時的成本結構,我們是否會看到更多潛在的機會?
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
I think, Jerry, for us, from the SG&A standpoint, what we've sort of communicated to the -- here for the 60 -- for the $40 million to $60 million of incremental costs. I think we've got a really good visibility on that. Eric alluded to more on the cost of goods sold side. And I wouldn't say that's necessarily connected to the tariff environment. But as we think about how do we make ourselves more efficient without compromising quality to the farmers. We do think there are some opportunities to evaluate our sourcing.
我認為,傑瑞,從銷售、一般及行政費用(SG&A)的角度來看,我們已經向——這裡指的是60——傳達了4000萬至6000萬美元的增量成本。我認為我們對此已經有了非常清晰的了解。埃里克暗示,銷售成本方面還有更多問題。我不認為這一定與關稅環境有關。但是,當我們思考如何在不損害農民利益的前提下提高效率時,我們該如何做呢?我們認為,在評估我們的採購方式方面,存在一些機會。
Now that may come to certain -- that may help us from a tariff standpoint. But as we think about that, it's identifying suppliers who can deliver the quality that our farmers demand. But doing it in a way that's lower cost for us and really leveraging the economies of scale that we have with our Massey Ferguson and our Valtra brands globally. And so we see some opportunities for that helping improve the cost of goods sold and helping position the margins for Massey and Valtra more, especially as these volumes start to pick up hopefully in '27 and beyond.
現在看來這或許會成為定局——從關稅角度來看,這或許對我們有利。但當我們思考這個問題時,就會發現關鍵在於找到能夠提供我們農民所要求的品質的供應商。但這樣做是為了降低我們的成本,真正利用我們 Massey Ferguson 和 Valtra 品牌在全球範圍內的規模經濟效益。因此,我們看到了一些機會,可以幫助改善銷售成本,並幫助 Massey 和 Valtra 提高利潤率,尤其是在這些銷量預計在 2027 年及以後開始回升的情況下。
Operator
Operator
Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.
Tami Zakaria,摩根大通。
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Hey, good morning. Thank you so much. I wanted to get some color on how you're thinking about operating margins by the different regions. If you could provide some color there, North America, Brazil, Europe, and how to think about as the year progresses like first half versus back half? So any color you can give on regional margins as it relates to first half and back half would be helpful.
嘿,早安。太感謝了。我想了解一下您是如何看待不同地區的營業利潤率的。如果您能提供一些細節方面的信息,例如北美、巴西、歐洲,以及隨著時間推移(例如上半年與下半年)應該如何看待這個問題?因此,如果您能根據上半場和下半場的情況,用顏色來表示區域邊緣,那就太好了。
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yeah, sure. No worries, Tami. I think for -- as Mig asked in the question, I think Europe should stay right around that 15% margin for the full year in similar to what we've seen in the individual quarters as the other question came up on North America. I think you're going to see North America, let's say, directionally down in a loss position probably in that sort of high single, low double-digit range for '26 based on the industry forecast that's going to be worse year over year in the first half, given the industry and the underproduction and then probably a little bit better than what we did last year in the back half of the year.
當然可以。別擔心,塔米。我認為——正如 Mig 在問題中提出的那樣,我認為歐洲全年的利潤率應該保持在 15% 左右,類似於我們在各個季度看到的情況,就像另一個問題中提到的北美一樣。我認為你會看到北美地區,比如說,在2026年,整體上將出現虧損,虧損幅度可能在個位數高點到兩位數低點之間。根據產業預測,考慮到產業現狀和產量不足,上半年情況將比去年同期更糟,而下半年情況可能會比去年略好。
And then South America, that's kind of, as you know, a little bit uncertain right now. Overall, for the full year, I think it will be -- our forecast shows it being modestly better versus 2025 on a full year basis. Going to start worse off because we got to do some underproduction here. We've got to get the dealer inventories, and we've got some weaker mix right now and then sort of picking up to be a little bit stronger in the back half of the year, given what we saw here in the back half of 2025. So I'd say margins for the full year relatively flat, maybe a little bit above but more of a shift between first and second half and then Asia being relatively flat relative to last year from an overall margin perspective.
至於南美洲,如你所知,目前情況有點不明朗。總的來說,就全年而言,我認為——我們的預測顯示,與 2025 年相比,全年情況會略好一些。開局會比較糟糕,因為我們這裡需要減少一些生產量。我們必須確保經銷商的庫存充足,目前我們的產品組合略顯疲軟,但鑑於我們在 2025 年下半年看到的情況,預計下半年情況會有所好轉。所以我認為全年利潤率相對平穩,可能略有上升,但上半年和下半年之間的變化更大,而且從整體利潤率的角度來看,亞洲地區的利潤率與去年相比也相對平穩。
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Understood. That's very helpful. And quickly, I think there's been some announcements on Indian tariffs going down. Any thoughts on whether that could be a tailwind for you? And overall, like, could you remind how much of tariff impact is currently baked in? So we can kind of keep track if other tariff rates come down, we can sort of calculate based off of that.
明白了。那很有幫助。而且很快,我認為已經有一些關於印度關稅下調的消息公佈了。你覺得這會不會對你有利?總的來說,您能否提醒一下,目前有多少關稅影響已經納入考量?這樣我們就可以追蹤其他關稅稅率的下降情況,並據此進行計算。
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yes, absolutely. So if we think about the incremental tariff costs that we're going to see in our P&L in 2026 versus '25, and it's just the tariff costs themselves, that's about a $65 million headwind year over year. And if I think about what we incurred in our P&L last year, it was around $40 million. So the absolute total tariff cost in '26 will be just around $105 million, $110 million. So we've said around 1% of our sales.
是的,絕對的。因此,如果我們考慮一下 2026 年與 2025 年相比,我們在損益表中將看到的增量關稅成本,僅僅是關稅成本本身,那將比上一年增加約 6500 萬美元的不利因素。如果我回顧我們去年的損益表,大約是 4000 萬美元。因此,2026 年的關稅總成本絕對值約為 1.05 億美元至 1.1 億美元。所以我們說大約占我們銷售額的 1%。
So that's sort of directionally where we're at, but about $65 million of that will be incremental to 2025. And that's what's compressing our year over year margins because when you look at our pricing guide of 2% to 3%, as I said on the call, at 3% when you look at inflation plus tariffs, we're only going to cover that on a dollar basis at the 3%. So that's actually margin dilutive.
所以,這就是我們目前大致的方向,但其中約有 6,500 萬美元將在 2025 年之前逐步實現。這就是導致我們年利潤率下降的原因,因為正如我在電話會議上所說,我們定價指導價為 2% 到 3%,而 3% 的漲幅加上通貨膨脹和關稅,我們只能以 3% 的美元價格來彌補。所以這實際上會稀釋利潤率。
And if you look at the midpoint of our pricing guide, we would actually be negative from an earnings standpoint and it would be margin dilutive. So that's sort of what's in the numbers right now based on what we know. If what was communicated related to India does come to fruition, probably not going to have a big effect on us, Tami, it's a couple -- it would be a couple of million dollars of a positive, but not a big mover to that $65 million that I just quoted.
如果你看一下我們定價指南的中點,從獲利角度來看,我們實際上會面臨虧損,而且會稀釋利潤率。所以,根據我們目前掌握的信息,這就是目前的數據情況。如果與印度有關的消息最終成真,可能不會對我們產生太大影響,塔米,那隻會帶來幾百萬美元的積極影響,但不會像我剛才提到的那樣,對那 6500 萬美元產生太大推動作用。
Operator
Operator
Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.
安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略,摩根士丹利。
Esther Osinaiya - Analyst
Esther Osinaiya - Analyst
This is Esther Osinaiya on for Angel. Congrats on a good quarter. My question is maybe going back to tariffs, could you maybe give us like kind of the cadence each quarter going to 2026? Do you see more happening in the first half or second half? Or is it kind of equally divvied up?
以下是 Esther Osinaiya,為您帶來 Angel 的報道。恭喜你本季業績出色。我的問題或許可以回到關稅問題上來,您能否給我們提供一下到 2026 年每季的大致時間表?你覺得上半場還是下半場劇情更精彩?還是說基本均等分配了?
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yeah, Esther. So overall, given the timing of the tariffs last year, again, as I think about that $65 million incremental, it's going to be heavily weighted here in the first half of the year because if you remember the timing of when tariffs rolled in last year, coupled with the level of inventories that we had and our dealers had, we really saw that start to pick up in the third quarter and more into the fourth quarter. So you're sort of looking at probably the majority of that $65 million sitting in the first half and then the balance of it sort of rolling in, in the third quarter and then being somewhat neutral in the fourth quarter.
是的,埃絲特。所以總的來說,考慮到去年關稅生效的時間,再說一遍,考慮到這 6500 萬美元的增量,它將主要集中在今年上半年,因為如果你還記得去年關稅生效的時間,再加上我們和我們經銷商的庫存水平,我們確實看到這種情況在第三季度開始加劇,並在第四季度進一步加劇。所以,這 6,500 萬美元的大部分可能都集中在上半年,剩下的部分會在第三季陸續到位,然後在第四季保持相對穩定。
Esther Osinaiya - Analyst
Esther Osinaiya - Analyst
Okay. And just a follow-up, are there any limiting factors in your ability to underproduce at a greater degree just to kind of fix some of the excess inventory you mentioned in the call today?
好的。最後再問一個問題,您在今天電話會議中提到的庫存過剩問題,在更大程度上減少產量以解決庫存過剩方面,是否存在任何限制因素?
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Damon Audia - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
So there's no inhibitors for us in reducing our production, but I think you have to understand the complexity of a full portfolio. And as we talk about the industry, the planter industry is different than the combined industry, which is different than a low horsepower, medium horsepower, high horsepower. So depending on which industry is fluctuating and what that dealer has on his or her yard influence our production.
因此,我們減少產量並沒有什麼阻礙,但我認為你必須了解完整產品組合的複雜性。當我們談論這個產業時,播種機產業與聯合產業不同,而聯合產業又與低馬力、中馬力、高馬力播種機不同。因此,哪個產業出現波動,以及經銷商的庫存狀況,都會影響我們的生產。
So we don't have any take-or-pay contracts with suppliers. We don't have any issues that prohibit us from slowing our production. But it's more as the different types of products have different dynamics that influence them, that's what may adjust the inventory or the months on hand that we then have to try to adjust.
因此,我們與供應商之間沒有任何照付不議的合約。我們沒有任何阻礙我們放慢生產速度的問題。但更重要的是,不同類型的產品有不同的動態影響,這可能會調整庫存或庫存月份,而我們需要嘗試進行調整。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Eric Hansotia for any closing remarks.
我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給艾瑞克·漢索蒂亞,請他作總結發言。
Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Eric Hansotia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Great. So I just want to thank everybody for joining us today and some of the really good questions. 2025 reflects a meaningful progress year that we've made in transferring AGCO into a more resilient, better positioned company. We're executing with discipline and focus on what we can control in a pretty volatile market. And we're always staying focused on our Farmer First strategy that creates purpose for employees.
偉大的。所以,我非常感謝今天各位的到來,以及大家提出的許多非常好的問題。 2025年標誌著我們在將AGCO轉型為更具韌性、更具市場地位的公司方面取得了意義重大的進展。在當前動盪的市場環境下,我們以嚴謹的紀律和專注的態度,專注於我們能夠控制的事情。我們始終堅持以農民為先的策略,為員工創造使命感。
Our global team delivered a 7.7% adjusted operating margin in 2025. That's a high watermark and notable achievement at this stage of the ag cycle, the best we've ever performed at the trough. I'm really appreciative of the commitment and results of our team and our dealer organization.
我們的全球團隊在 2025 年實現了 7.7% 的調整後營業利潤率。這是農業週期現階段的高水準和顯著成就,也是我們迄今為止在低谷期取得的最佳成績。我非常感謝我們團隊和經銷商組織的付出和取得的成果。
We remain focused on delivering for all stakeholders. For our farmers, our innovation flywheel continues to spin fast with solutions designed to solve real on-farm problems. We recorded a record Net Promoter Score and have a record set of patent filings. So farmers like what we've got, and we've got more coming.
我們將繼續致力於為所有利害關係人提供優質服務。對於我們的農民來說,我們的創新飛輪持續高速運轉,並不斷推出旨在解決實際農場問題的解決方案。我們創下了淨推薦值新高,專利申請數也創下了新高。所以農民們對我們現有的產品很滿意,而且我們還有更多產品即將推出。
For shareholders, we exceeded -- executed a $250 million accelerated share repurchase in quarter four. That's part of our $1 billion program, and we're in a new chapter in that regard with our ability to do share buybacks. And share buybacks are probably coming more in the future because we had a record free cash flow of $740 million in 2025, all-time high moderate for AGCO.
對於股東而言,我們超出了預期——在第四季度執行了 2.5 億美元的加速股票回購計畫。這是我們10億美元計畫的一部分,而我們在這方面的能力也開啟了新的篇章,我們具備了進行股票回購的能力。未來股票回購可能會更多,因為我們在 2025 年的自由現金流達到了創紀錄的 7.4 億美元,這是 AGCO 有史以來最高的水平。
Our 2026 outlook reflects our ability to keep earnings, earning the trust of farmers and OEMs, transforming our dealer network, gaining market share, driving our higher-margin growth levers, and executing structural changes and cost initiatives that will position us well for when demand recovers. 2025 was the bottom of the trough and the fleets in our major markets are at the peak of their age. So we expect that the future looks brighter. Thanks for everybody's participation today.
我們對2026年的展望反映了我們保持盈利、贏得農民和原始設備製造商(OEM)信任、轉型經銷商網絡、擴大市場份額、推動高利潤增長點以及實施結構性變革和成本控制舉措的能力,這些都將使我們能夠在需求復甦時佔據有利地位。 2025年是市場低谷,我們主要市場的車隊正處於使用年限的高峰期。因此,我們預期未來會更加光明。感謝大家今天的參與。
Operator
Operator
Thank you for joining the AGCO earnings call. The call has concluded. Have a nice day.
感謝您參加AGCO財報電話會議。通話已結束。祝你今天過得愉快。