AGCO Corp (AGCO) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the AGCO third-quarter 2025 earnings call.

大家好，歡迎參加AGCO 2025年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作說明）請注意，本次活動正在錄影。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Greg Peterson, AGCO Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給AGCO投資者關係主管格雷格·彼得森。請繼續。

Thanks, Gary, and good morning. Welcome to those of you joining us for AGCO's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. We will refer to a slide presentation this morning that's posted on our website at www.agcocorp.com. The non-GAAP measures used in the slide presentation are reconciled to GAAP metrics in the appendix of the presentation. We will make forward-looking statements this morning, including statements about our strategic plans and initiatives as well as our financial impacts, demand, product development and capital expenditure plans and timing of those plans and our expectations concerning the costs and benefits of those plans and timing of those benefits.

謝謝你，加里，早安。歡迎各位參加AGCO 2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上我們將參考一份發佈在我們網站www.agcocorp.com上的幻燈片簡報。此簡報中使用的非GAAP指標已在簡報的附錄中與GAAP指標進行了核對。今天早上我們將發表一些前瞻性聲明，包括有關我們的策略計劃和舉措、財務影響、需求、產品開發和資本支出計劃及這些計劃的時間安排，以及我們對這些計劃的成本和收益以及這些收益的時間安排的預期。

We'll also cover future revenue, crop production, farm income production levels, price levels, margins, earnings, operating income, cash flow, engineering expense tax rates and other financial metrics. All of these forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the statements. These risks are further described in the safe harbor included on Slide 2 in the accompanying presentation. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested in these statements.

我們還將涵蓋未來收入、作物產量、農場收入生產水準、價格水準、利潤率、收益、營業收入、現金流、工程費用稅率和其他財務指標。所有這些前瞻性陳述都存在風險，可能導致實際結果與陳述中暗示的結果有重大差異。這些風險在隨附簡報的幻燈片 2 中包含的安全港條款中有更詳細的描述。實際結果可能與這些聲明中所述的結果有重大差異。

Further information concerning these and other risks is included in AGCO's filings with the SEC, including its Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, and subsequent Form 10-Q filings. AGCO disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law. We'll make a replay of this call available on our corporate website later today.

有關這些風險和其他風險的更多信息，請參閱 AGCO 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格以及後續的 10-Q 表格。除法律要求外，AGCO不承擔任何前瞻性聲明的義務。今天晚些時候，我們將在公司網站上提供本次電話會議的錄音回放。

On the call with me this morning is Eric Hansotia, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Damon Audia, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天早上和我一起通話的是我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長埃里克·漢索蒂亞，以及我們的高級副總裁兼財務長達蒙·奧迪亞。

With that, Eric, please go ahead.

那麼，埃里克，請開始吧。

Thanks, Greg, and good morning to everyone joining the call today. We delivered a strong third quarter performance, underscoring the effectiveness of our strategic execution and the resilience of our global team. While macro conditions continue to be volatile, we benefited from a more favorable regional mix and stayed laser focused on what we can control.

謝謝格雷格，也祝今天參加電話會議的各位早安。我們第三季業績表現強勁，凸顯了我們策略執行的有效性和我們全球團隊的韌性。儘管宏觀經濟情勢依然波動，但我們受益於更有利的區域經濟格局，並始終專注於我們能夠控制的因素。

Our disciplined approach to production and cost management continues to position us well in this environment. Thank you to the entire AGCO team for their continued focus in these two areas where we remain agile in the face of a complex and evolving landscape. And our people have been instrumental in helping us navigate this uncertainty, maintaining our momentum and continuing to put Farmer-First.

我們嚴謹的生產和成本管理方式使我們在這個環境中繼續保持良好地位。感謝 AGCO 團隊全體成員在這兩個領域持續投入，使我們能夠在複雜多變的環境中保持靈活應變。我們的員工在幫助我們應對這種不確定性、保持發展勢頭並繼續堅持「農民至上」的理念方面發揮了重要作用。

Net sales were $2.5 billion, down approximately 5% year-over-year, or up nearly 6% when excluding Grain & Protein business divested last year. Strong growth in EAME led the quarter, which continues to be our largest, most stable and most profitable region. Near record global crop production in 2025 is leading to an elevated grain inventories and putting pressure on commodity prices. While farm income is being supported by increased government systems in the US crop margins are still tight, and farmers around the globe remain cautious on capital spend.

淨銷售額為 25 億美元，年減約 5%，但如果不包括去年剝離的穀物和蛋白質業務，則成長近 6%。歐洲、非洲和中東地區的強勁成長引領了本季的發展，該地區仍然是我們規模最大、最穩定、獲利能力最強的地區。2025年全球農作物產量接近歷史最高水平，導致糧食庫存上升，對大宗商品價格構成壓力。儘管美國政府加強了對農業收入的支持力度，但農作物利潤仍然很低，全球農民在資本支出方面仍保持謹慎。

During this industry downturn, we are staying focused on executing our strategy, supporting our dealers and customers and investing in technologies that will drive long-term growth. We also continue to look for every opportunity to limit the impact of tariffs on our farmers. We are closely monitoring evolving tariff policies and government support programs around the world while continuing to engage with suppliers and adjust our supply chain. We continue to assess and implement price increases where appropriate and feasible.

在產業低迷時期，我們將繼續專注於執行我們的策略，支持我們的經銷商和客戶，並投資於能夠推動長期成長的技術。我們也會繼續尋找一切機會，以減少關稅對農民的影響。我們正密切關注世界各地不斷變化的關稅政策和政府支援計劃，同時繼續與供應商溝通並調整我們的供應鏈。我們將繼續評估並酌情實施價格上漲。

For the quarter, consolidated operating margins were 6.1% on a reported basis and 7.5% on an adjusted basis. Our results reflect strong execution by our teams. We maintained solid margins through disciplined operational performance, a favorable regional mix and continued progress on our restructuring initiatives. This consistency underscores the effectiveness of our strategy and our commitment to delivering long-term value.

本季度，以報告基準計算的合併營業利潤率為 6.1%，以調整基準計算的合併營業利潤率為 7.5%。我們的成績反映了我們團隊的優秀執行力。我們透過嚴格的營運績效、有利的區域組合以及重組計畫的持續進展，維持了穩健的利潤率。這種一致性凸顯了我們策略的有效性以及我們致力於創造長期價值的承諾。

Notably, we achieved these margins despite another quarter of significant production cuts in North America as part of our ongoing efforts to destock the dealer channel. When comparing third quarter of 2025 to the same period last year, production was down nearly 50% in North America.

值得注意的是，儘管北美地區又一個季度大幅削減了產量，作為我們持續努力減少經銷商通路庫存的一部分，我們仍然實現了這些利潤率。與去年同期相比，2025 年第三季北美地區的產量下降了近 50%。

Production levels are actually down nearly 70% from 2023. In addition to making further progress on reducing dealer inventories, we've also decreased company inventories. This continued discipline is reflected in our working capital improvements and free cash flow generation during the 9 months of the year, which was approximately $453 million up compared to the same period in 2024.

實際產量水準比 2023 年下降了近 70%。除了在減少經銷商庫存方面取得進一步進展外，我們還減少了公司庫存。這種持續的自律體現在我們今年前 9 個月的營運資本改善和自由現金流產生上，與 2024 年同期相比增加了約 4.53 億美元。

Slide 4 provides an overview of industry unit retail sales by region for the first nine months of 2025. The global farm equipment market continues to face significant headwinds. Brazil remains slightly up compared to the third quarter of 2024, driven primarily by demand for smaller and midsized tractors coupled with favorable trade dynamics.

第 4 張投影片概述了 2025 年前九個月各地區的行業單位零售額。全球農機市場持續面臨許多不利因素。與 2024 年第三季相比，巴西的產量仍然略有上升，這主要是由於對中小型拖拉機的需求以及有利的貿易情況所致。

Despite record soybean harvest and potential trade benefits, demand for larger equipment has yet to show meaningful improvement. High financing costs and political uncertainty are expected to continue constraining demand in 2025, but the early signs of recovery going to a modest increase in 2026.

儘管大豆收成創歷史新高，且可能帶來貿易利益，但對大型設備的需求尚未出現實質改善。預計2025年高昂的融資成本和政治不確定性將繼續抑制需求，但復甦的早期跡象表明，2026年需求將小幅增長。

In North America, tractor sales declined 10% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 with the steepest drops occurring in the high horsepower categories. Driving this behavior is the significantly lower grain export demand, global trade uncertainty and continued high input costs. We expect these pressures to persist, particularly with the demand for larger equipment.

在北美，2025 年頭九個月的拖拉機銷量比 2024 年同期下降了 10%，其中高馬力類別的降幅最大。造成這種現象的原因是糧食出口需求大幅下降、全球貿易不確定性以及持續高企的投入成本。我們預計這些壓力將會持續存在，特別是對大型設備的需求。

Recent announcements of government support are expected to support net farm income, which may help unlock future equipment investments. There are also potential upside if further progress can be made on top of the trade agreement that was announced earlier this week between the US and China.

近期政府宣布的支持措施可望提振農場淨收入，這可能有助於釋放未來設備投資的潛力。如果能在本週稍早中美宣布的貿易協定基礎上取得進一步進展，還有潛在的利多因素。

For Western Europe, tractor sales were down 8% during the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period 1 year ago. The industry experienced double-digit percentage decreases across most markets. Demand and mix are expected to remain soft through the remainder of the year as lower income levels weigh on arable farmers and correspondingly large tractors.

2025 年前九個月，西歐拖拉機銷量比 1 年前同期下降了 8%。該行業在大多數市場都經歷了兩位數百分比的下滑。由於收入水準下降，耕地農民和大型拖拉機的需求受到抑制，預計今年剩餘時間裡，需求和產品組合將保持疲軟。

As AGCO's largest and most strategically important region, Europe continues to deliver stable demand that is less cyclical than other markets with strong and consistent operating margins. This performance provides valuable balance to our global portfolio, helping us to offset fluctuations in other markets, including those influenced by evolving US trade dynamics.

作為 AGCO 最大、最具戰略意義的地區，歐洲持續提供穩定的需求，其週期性比其他市場要小，並且擁有強勁且穩定的營業利潤率。這項績效為我們的全球投資組合提供了寶貴的平衡，幫助我們抵消其他市場的波動，包括受不斷變化的美國貿易動態影響的市場波動。

We remain confident in the region's ability to support our long-term growth, especially as Precision Ag grows there. Combined sales continued to decline across all three regions, with North America experiencing the largest year-over-year drop at 29%. Mid industry-wide pressures, AGCO is performing more resiliently than in previous downturns and remains well positioned for the long-term growth.

我們仍然對該地區支持我們長期發展的能力充滿信心，尤其是在精準農業在該地區不斷發展壯大的情況下。三大地區的總銷售額持續下滑，其中北美年減幅最大，達 29%。儘管面臨產業整體壓力，AGCO 的表現比以往的低迷時期更具韌性，並保持良好的長期成長前景。

Looking ahead to 2026, current commodity prices and fundamental uncertainties continue to impact the global ag industry outlook. Positive market factors, including livestock and dairy prices, the replacement cycle and government payments are being offset by geopolitical tension, tariff impacts and difficult farm economics, which include elevated borrowing costs and rising input costs.

展望 2026 年，目前的商品價格和基本面的不確定性將繼續影響全球農業產業前景。正面的市場因素，包括牲畜和乳製品價格、更新週期和政府補貼，被地緣政治緊張局勢、關稅影響和農業經濟困難（包括借貸成本上升和投入成本上漲）所抵消。

Given the combination of all of these factors, there is increasing likelihood of markets being relatively flat in 2026, with North American large ag down and Europe and South America modestly out. This view confirms our assessment that the global industry is at the trough.

綜合所有這些因素來看，2026 年市場相對穩定的可能性越來越大，北美大型農業市場將出現下滑，歐洲和南美市場將略有下滑。這一觀點證實了我們的評估，全球產業正處於低谷。

Slide 5 outlines AGCO's factory production hours. To ensure year-over-year comparability, we've excluded Grain and Protein production hours from the 2024 baseline. Third quarter production hours were up approximately 6% year over year, driven by a favorable comparison in Europe, where quarter 3 2024 and was impacted by the prolonged factory shutdowns as well as increased output in South America.

第 5 張投影片概述了 AGCO 的工廠生產時間。為了確保逐年可比性，我們從 2024 年的基準線中排除了穀物和蛋白質的生產時間。第三季生產工時年增約 6%，主要得益於歐洲的利基數效應（2024 年第三季受到工廠長期停工的影響）以及南美洲產量的增加。

In contrast, North America production was down over 50% again this quarter, reflecting our continued focus on reducing dealer inventories in response to soft market demand. And as I mentioned, production wells are actually down nearly 70% from 2023.

相較之下，北美地區的產量本季再次下降超過 50%，這反映出我們持續致力於減少經銷商庫存，以應對疲軟的市場需求。正如我之前提到的，實際產量井數量比 2023 年減少了近 70%。

Looking ahead, we now expect full year 2025 production to be down approximately 15% versus 2024. A slight revision from our prior estimate of down 15% to 20% primarily due to stronger quarter 3 output in EAME. Rightsizing inventory in North America remains a top priority, while Europe and South America will continue to see production effectively aligned with retail demand.

展望未來，我們預計 2025 年全年產量將比 2024 年下降約 15%。由於歐洲、非洲和中東地區第三季產量強勁成長，我們略微修正了先前預測的下降 15% 至 20% 的預期。北美地區的庫存調整仍是重中之重，而歐洲和南美地區的生產將繼續有效與零售需求一致。

Looking at regional inventory breakdown. In Europe, dealer inventory is now just over three months, slightly below our target. [Ventis] below this average, while Massey Ferguson Volta are just above. Europe's near target inventory levels are encouraging, particularly given our strong exposure to the region. In South America, dealer inventory ticked up to around four months, slightly above our three-month target and quarter two levels given the decline in demand for low and medium horsepower tractors. The increase in inventory reflects mainly a more cautious industry outlook, given the demand changes in quarter three, which led us to adjust our forward sales expectations.

查看區域庫存細分狀況。在歐洲，經銷商的庫存量目前略高於三個月，略低於我們的目標。 [Ventis]低於這一平均水平，而Massey Ferguson Volta則略高於這一平均水平。歐洲接近目標的庫存水準令人鼓舞，尤其考慮到我們對該地區的濃厚興趣。在南美洲，由於對低馬力和中馬力拖拉機的需求下降，經銷商庫存略微上升到大約四個月，略高於我們三個月的目標和第二季度的水平。庫存增加主要反映了行業前景更加謹慎，因為第三季需求發生了變化，導致我們調整了未來的銷售預期。

In North America, we continue to make meaningful progress, reducing dealer inventory from 9 to 8 months, while still above our target, the reduction reflects the success of our disciplined production cuts, with units being reduced almost 13% in the quarter.

在北美，我們繼續取得實質進展，經銷商庫存從 9 個月減少到 8 個月，雖然仍高於我們的目標，但這一減少反映了我們嚴格的減產措施的成功，本季度產量減少了近 13%。

Our three high-margin growth drivers, globalizing and expanding our (inaudible) product line, growing precision ag, and increasing our parts business remains central to our strategy. To unlock the full potential of these growth levers and transform AGCO into a higher-performing company throughout the cycles, there are five major strategic shifts we've just made in the past two years that position us for significant earnings growth.

我們的三大高利潤成長驅動因素，即全球化和擴大我們的（聽不清楚）產品線、發展精準農業以及增加我們的零件業務，仍然是我們策略的核心。為了充分發揮這些成長槓桿的潛力，並將 AGCO 轉變為一家在各個週期中表現更佳的公司，我們在過去兩年中進行了五項重大戰略轉變，這使我們能夠實現顯著的盈利增長。

Let's start with a significant update regarding our resolution with TAFE. We recently announced the sale of our ownership interest in TAFE, generating approximately $230 million in after-tax proceeds. For the first time under my leadership, we now plan to move forward with a $1 billion share repurchase program, reflecting our confidence in the business and our commitment to shareholder returns. We plan to begin purchasing $300 million of shares in the fourth quarter.

首先，讓我們來看看關於TAFE解決方案的重要進展。我們最近宣佈出售我們在TAFE的股權，稅後收益約為2.3億美元。在我領導下，我們首次計劃推進10億美元的股票回購計劃，這反映了我們對公司業務的信心以及對股東回報的承諾。我們計劃在第四季開始購買價值 3 億美元的股票。

Turning to other key elements that are meaningfully reshaping our company. The creation of our PTX business is the most critical to helping us achieve our vision to be the trusted partner for industry-leading smart farming solutions. By combining precision planting, the ag assets of Trimble and 6 additional tech acquisitions over the last 5 years, plus doubling our engineering budget, we've built a $900 million platform with a path to $2 billion in Precision Ag revenues as synergies and scale take hold.

接下來，我們將探討其他正在深刻重塑我們公司的關鍵要素。創建 PTX 業務對於我們實現成為業界領先的智慧農業解決方案的值得信賴的合作夥伴的願景至關重要。透過結合精準播種技術、Trimble 的農業資產以及過去 5 年的 6 項額外技術收購，再加上將工程預算翻了一番，我們打造了一個價值 9 億美元的平台，隨著協同效應和規模效應的顯現，精準農業收入有望達到 20 億美元。

As we strengthened our high-margin, high-growth portfolio, we exited the lower growth, lower margin business of green and protein, which lacked alignment with our core machine and technology products as well as our distribution strategy. Project Reimagined is a company-wide restructuring effort focused on automating, standardizing, simplifying, centralizing, and in some cases, outsourcing work. With over 700 active projects, we are driving efficiency, lower costs and most importantly, improving the outcomes for our dealers, farmers and employees, enabled by AI. This initiative is expected to reduce our cost base by $175 million to $200 million.

隨著我們不斷加強高利潤、高成長的業務組合，我們退出了成長較低、利潤較低的綠色食品和蛋白質業務，因為這些業務與我們的核心機器和技術產品以及分銷策略缺乏契合度。「重塑計畫」是一項全公司範圍的重組工作，重點在於自動化、標準化、簡化、集中化，並在某些情況下將工作外包。憑藉 700 多個活躍項目，我們正在提高效率、降低成本，最重要的是，透過人工智慧改善經銷商、農民和員工的境況。這項措施預計將使我們的成本基礎減少 1.75 億美元至 2 億美元。

Finally, Farmer Core is unique in our industry and is transforming our go-to-market strategy. We're taking service and support right to the farmers, online and on the farm by investing in digital tools and enabling dealers to shift from brick-and-mortar to mobile service models. This is about servicing the farmer, not just the product. We're making meaningful progress in North and South America with expansion to other markets planned in the future. Together, these five strategic shifts are shaping the AGCO we've envisioned, more focused, more agile and better positioned to deliver sustainable, high-margin growth.

最後，Farmer Core 在我們行業中獨樹一幟，正在改變我們的市場進入策略。我們透過投資數位工具，使經銷商能夠從實體店轉向行動服務模式，從而將服務和支援直接送到農民手中，無論是在線上還是在農場。這關乎服務農民，而不僅僅是服務產品。我們在北美和南美市場取得了顯著進展，未來也計劃拓展到其他市場。這五項策略轉變共同塑造了我們所設想的 AGCO，使其更加專注、更加靈活，並更好地實現可持續的高利潤成長。

The results include margins at this trough that are comparable to the company's margins at the previous cycle's peak. AGCO is delivering higher margins through the business cycle, driven by these structural changes to the company's portfolio and value proposition.

結果顯示，即使在當前低谷時期，公司的利潤率也與上一個週期高峰時期的利潤率相當。AGCO 透過對其產品組合和價值主張進行結構性調整，在整個商業週期中實現了更高的利潤率。

Going deeper into Precision Ag, slide 7 showcases two major innovation milestones that reflect AGCO as a leader in smart farming solutions. We've launched Phase 1 of Farm Engage, our new mixed fleet digital platform designed to deploy work plans, track fieldwork and collect test data from all machines on the farm regardless of brand. This retrofit first solution enables AGCO equipment to seamlessly integrate with existing Trimble technology while also supporting interoperability with non-AGCO fleets.

深入了解精準農業，第 7 張幻燈片展示了兩個重大創新里程碑，體現了 AGCO 作為智慧農業解決方案領導者的地位。我們已經推出了 Farm Engage 的第一階段，這是一個全新的混合車隊數位平台，旨在部署工作計劃、追蹤田間作業並收集農場上所有機器（無論品牌）的測試數據。這種改造優先的解決方案使 AGCO 設備能夠與現有的 Trimble 技術無縫集成，同時也支援與非 AGCO 車隊的互通性。

Looking ahead, Phase 2 will consolidate features into a unified platform experience and Phase 3 will complete the full farm operations cycle, delivering an end-to-end solution for planning, execution and optimization. Together, these phases positioned Farm Engage as an absolute cornerstone of our smart farming strategy.

展望未來，第二階段將把各項功能整合到一個統一的平台體驗中，第三階段將完成整個農場營運週期，提供規劃、執行和優化的端到端解決方案。這些階段共同將 Farm Engage 定位為我們智慧農業策略的絕對基石。

As you know, our goal is to be autonomous across the crop cycle by 2030. We are accelerating this journey and at a recent Tech Day in Germany, we unveiled the latest outrun autonomous solution for tillage and fertilization. Tillage is now in beta testing and fertilization is in alpha. These build on the success of our outrun autonomous green card solution, which is already in production.

如您所知，我們的目標是到 2030 年實現作物整個生長週期的自主化。我們正在加速這一進程，在最近於德國舉行的技術日上，我們推出了最新的耕作和施肥自主解決方案。耕作目前處於beta測試階段，施肥目前處於alpha測試階段。這些都建立在我們已投入生產的自主綠卡解決方案成功的基礎上。

These innovations offer autonomous capabilities for [fent] and competitive machines in three of the five major stages of the crop cycle, making us one of the industry leaders in this transformational technology. This progress reflects our commitment to delivering practical scalable technologies for the mixed fleet that reduce labor dependency, improve efficiency and help farmers operate more profitably.

這些創新為[fent]和競爭機器在作物生長週期的五個主要階段中的三個階段提供了自主能力，使我們成為這項變革性技術的行業領導者之一。這項進展體現了我們致力於為混合車隊提供實用且可擴展的技術，以減少對勞動力的依賴，提高效率，並幫助農民實現更盈利的經營。

On that exciting note, I'll hand it over to Damon for a deeper dive into the financials.

帶著這個令人興奮的消息，接下來我將把麥克風交給達蒙，讓他更深入分析財務狀況。

Thank you, Eric, and good morning. Slide 8 summarizes our regional net sales performance for the third quarter and year-to-date. Net sales for the quarter increased approximately 1% year-over-year, excluding the positive impact of currency translation. For comparability, we've also excluded the $251 million of sales associated with the divested Grain and Protein business in Q3 of 2024.

謝謝你，艾瑞克，早安。第 8 頁總結了我們第三季和年初至今的區域淨銷售業績。不計匯率變動帶來的正面影響，本季淨銷售額年增約 1%。為了便於比較，我們也排除了 2024 年第三季剝離的穀物和蛋白質業務相關的 2.51 億美元銷售額。

Breaking net sales down by region. Europe/Middle East posted a 20% increase compared to the same period in 2024, excluding the impact of favorable currency effects. This reflects a recovery in the production levels in corresponding sales following extended plant downtime last year. Growth was strongest in the high horsepower and mid-range tractors. South America declined close to 10%, excluding favorable currency impact. Weaker industry demand drove most of the decrease with lower sales across most product categories.

按地區細分淨銷售額。不計有利的匯率影響，歐洲/中東地區與 2024 年同期相比成長了 20%。這反映出在去年工廠長時間停工後，產量和相應銷售額均有所恢復。高馬力和中型拖拉機的成長最為強勁。不計匯率利多因素，南美洲經濟下滑近10%。產業需求疲軟是導致銷售下滑的主要原因，且大多數產品類別的銷售量均下降。

North America was down 32%, excluding unfavorable currency effects. The decline was driven by continued market softness and are focused under production to reduce dealer inventories. The largest decreases occurred in high-horsepower tractors, sprayers and combines. Asia/Pacific/Africa declined 5%, excluding unfavorable currency translation impacts. Lower demand across the Asian markets were partially offset by stronger performance in Australia and Africa.

剔除不利的匯率影響，北美地區下跌了32%。市場持續疲軟是導致產量下降的主要原因，目前正集中精力減產以減少經銷商庫存。降幅最大的是大馬力拖拉機、噴射機和聯合收割機。不計不利的匯率變動影響，亞太及非洲地區經濟下降5%。亞洲市場需求下降，但澳洲和非洲市場表現強勁，部分抵銷了這一影響。

Finally, consolidated replacement parts were $498 million in the third quarter, up 2% year-over-year on a reported basis and down approximately 2% when excluding the favorable currency translation.

最後，第三季綜合替換零件銷售額為 4.98 億美元，以報告資料計算年增 2%，若不計入有利的匯率變動，則年減約 2%。

Turning to slide 9. Third quarter adjusted operating margin was 7.5%, 200 basis points higher than the prior year. The industry backdrop remains challenging with continued pressure from factory underabsorption and elevated discounting.

翻到第9張投影片。第三季調整後營業利益率為7.5%，較上年同期高出200個基點。產業背景依然充滿挑戰，工廠產能利用不足和折扣力度加大持續構成壓力。

The margin improvement was primarily driven by strong performance in our Europe, Middle East segment, where higher sales and production volume supported improved operating leverage. By region, Europe, Middle East income from operations increased around $163 million with operating margins approaching 16%. The improvement reflects the significantly higher volumes and sales compared to Q3 of 2024, which was impacted by the extended plant shutdowns.

利潤率的提高主要得益於我們在歐洲和中東地區的強勁表現，該地區更高的銷售額和產量支撐了營運槓桿的提升。按地區劃分，歐洲和中東的營業收入增加了約 1.63 億美元，營業利潤率接近 16%。這項改善反映了銷售量和銷售額較 2024 年第三季大幅成長，而 2024 年第三季受到了工廠長期停工的影響。

North American operating income declined approximately $56 million year over year with margins remaining negative again this quarter. Lower sales and significantly reduced production hours were the key drivers, coupled with a significantly weaker industry. South America operating income declined $23 million with margins down to around 6%, primarily due to lower volumes. Asia/Pacific/Africa posted a slight increase in operating income of $1 million, driven by lower manufacturing costs, partially offset by lower sales volume.

北美地區的營業收入年減約 5,600 萬美元，本季利潤率再次為負。銷售額下降和生產時間大幅減少是主要原因，再加上產業整體疲軟。南美營業收入下降 2,300 萬美元，利潤率降至 6% 左右，主要原因是銷量下降。亞太及非洲地區的營業收入略微增加了 100 萬美元，主要得益於製造成本的降低，但部分被銷售量的下降所抵銷。

Slide 10 shows our year-to-date free cash flow performance. As a reminder, free cash flow is defined as cash provided by or used in operating activities less capital expenditures. Free cash flow conversion is calculated as free cash flow divided by adjusted net income.

第 10 張幻燈片展示了我們今年迄今為止的自由現金流表現。再次提醒，自由現金流的定義是經營活動產生的現金或使用的現金減去資本支出。自由現金流轉換率的計算方法為自由現金流除以調整後淨利。

Through September, we generated $65 million of free cash flow, an improvement of around $450 million versus last year's net outflow of $387 million for the same period. This was driven by stronger working capital performance and roughly $120 million in lower capital expenditures year over year. We continue to expect full year free cash flow to be within our targeted range of 75% to 100% of adjusted net income.

截至 9 月，我們產生了 6,500 萬美元的自由現金流，比去年同期淨流出 3.87 億美元增加了約 4.5 億美元。這主要得益於營運資本表現的改善以及資本支出年減約 1.2 億美元。我們仍預期全年自由現金流將達到調整後淨收入的 75% 至 100% 的目標範圍。

Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. Reinvest in the business potential bolt-on acquisitions, maintain investment-grade credit ratings and return capital to shareholders. As Eric mentioned, following the TAFE resolution and the Board approval of our new $1 billion share repurchase program, we expect to begin repurchasing $300 million of shares in the fourth quarter. We also recently declared our regular quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share. We remain focused on deploying capital effectively to drive long-term shareholder value, and we're encouraged by the increased flexibility to return capital through the preferred investor method of share repurchases.

我們的資本配置優先事項保持不變。對業務進行再投資，以實現潛在的補充收購，維持投資等級信用評級，並向股東返還資本。正如艾瑞克所提到的，在TAFE決議通過以及董事會批准我們新的10億美元股票回購計畫之後，我們預計將在第四季開始回購3億美元的股票。我們最近也宣布了每股 0.29 美元的季度常規股息。我們將繼續專注於有效部署資本，以推動股東的長期價值，我們對透過優先投資者的股票回購方式返還資本的靈活性增加感到鼓舞。

Slide 11 highlights our current 2025 market outlook across our three major regions. Our outlooks remain relatively unchanged since the second quarter call other than a modest adjustment to our North American large ag forecast. In North America, we continue to expect significantly lower industry demand in 2025, while net farm income has improved, supported by government programs and record high cattle prices sentiment remains challenged by weak corn and soybean prices.

第 11 頁重點介紹了我們目前對 2025 年三大主要地區的市場展望。除了對北美大型農業預測進行小幅調整外，我們的展望與第二季電話會議以來基本保持不變。在北美，我們仍然預計 2025 年行業需求將大幅下降，儘管在政府計劃和創紀錄的牛價支持下，農場淨收入有所改善，但疲軟的玉米和大豆價格仍然對市場情緒構成挑戰。

Investment confidence is declining and interest rate cuts haven't yet provided meaningful relief. We're maintaining our outlook for the small tractor segment to be down approximately 5% and now expect large ag to be down around 30% versus our prior range of down 25% to 30%.

投資信心正在下降，降息尚未帶來實質緩和。我們維持對小型拖拉機市場下降約 5% 的預期，現在預計大型農機市場將下降約 30%，而我們先前預期的範圍為下降 25% 至 30%。

In Western Europe, we continue to expect the industry demand to decline 5% to 10%. The market remains soft, but relatively stable. Wheat prices are below historical averages, and geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiments. In South America, record soybean exports, partly driven by U.S. tariff barriers have supported trade flows.

在西歐，我們仍然預期產業需求將下降 5% 至 10%。市場依然疲軟，但相對穩定。小麥價格低於歷史平均水平，地緣政治不確定性繼續對市場情緒造成壓力。在南美洲，受美國關稅壁壘部分推動，大豆出口創下歷史新高，促進了貿易流動。

However, margins are under pressure from higher input costs and elevated interest rates in Brazil are dampening demand, especially for large ag. Under these conditions, we still expect Brazil to be flat to up 5% for the year.

然而，由於投入成本上升，利潤率面臨壓力，巴西的高利率抑制了需求，尤其是大型農業需求。在這種情況下，我們仍然預計巴西今年的經濟成長率將持平或成長 5%。

Slide 12 outlines the key assumptions supporting our full year 2025 outlook. We continue to expect global industry demand to be around 85% of mid-cycle levels. Our sales outlook remain unchanged despite a slightly softer pricing outlook now in the 0% to 1% range, which is down from approximately 1% in Q2 given the increase in competitive pricing in certain regions. We continue to anticipate a favorable currency impact of roughly 2%.

第 12 頁概述了支持我們 2025 年全年展望的關鍵假設。我們仍然預計全球工業需求將達到週期中期水準的 85% 左右。儘管由於某些地區競爭性定價的增加，價格前景略有放緩，目前處於 0% 至 1% 的範圍內，低於第二季度的約 1%，但我們的銷售前景仍然保持不變。我們仍預期匯率將帶來約 2% 的有利影響。

Our guidance reflects current tariffs across our global footprint, along with mitigation efforts through cost actions and pricing. That said, the potential for additional US tariffs or retaliatory measures fostered continued uncertainty.

我們的指導意見反映了我們全球業務範圍內的當前關稅，以及透過成本控制和定價措施來緩解關稅影響的努力。儘管如此，美國可能加徵關稅或採取報復措施的可能性，加劇了持續的不確定性。

We're monitoring developments closely and will adjust our outlook if needed. Engineering expense is expected to remain effectively flat year-over-year. We still expect our adjusted operating margin to be approximately 7.5%, reflecting structural improvements in cost initiatives, positioning us roughly 350 basis points above our last trough in 2016. Lastly, we revised our effective tax rate to 33% to 35%, modestly better than our prior estimate of approximately 35%.

我們正在密切關注事態發展，如有必要，將調整我們的預期。預計工程費用將與上年基本持平。我們仍預期調整後的營業利潤率約為 7.5%，這反映了成本控制措施的結構性改善，使我們比 2016 年的最後一個低點高出約 350 個基點。最後，我們將實際稅率調整為 33% 至 35%，比我們先前估計的約 35% 略好一些。

Turning to Slide 13 for our current 2025 outlook. We continue to expect full year net sales of approximately $9.8 billion, consistent with our prior outlook. This reflects the modest changes in demand trends across key markets. We refined our earnings per share forecast to approximately $5, reflecting strong execution across our global operations. This assumes no material changes to existing trade measures.

請翻到第 13 張投影片，了解我們目前 2025 年的展望。我們仍然預計全年淨銷售額約為 98 億美元，與我們先前的預期一致。這反映了主要市場需求趨勢的輕微變化。我們將每股盈餘預期調整至約 5 美元，這反映了我們全球業務的強勁執行力。前提是現有貿易措施不會發生實質變化。

Capital expenditures are now expected to be around $300 million. While this represents a decrease from the prior estimate of $350 million, we remain focused on supporting strategic initiatives and maintaining flexibility in response to shifting demand trends.

預計資本支出目前約3億美元。雖然這比先前估計的 3.5 億美元有所減少，但我們仍將專注於支持策略舉措，並保持靈活性以應對不斷變化的需求趨勢。

We continue to target free cash flow conversion of 75% to 100% of adjusted net income, supported by disciplined working capital management and improved inventory efficiency. As Eric noted, we're pleased with our performance through the third quarter in what remains a challenging and evolving year. Our teams have executed well, grown share and continue to reduce dealer inventories while supporting farmers' needs.

我們將繼續以調整後淨收入的 75% 至 100% 的自由現金流轉換率為目標，並透過嚴格的營運資本管理和提高庫存效率來支持這一目標。正如艾瑞克所指出的，我們對第三季的表現感到滿意，儘管今年仍然是充滿挑戰且不斷變化的一年。我們的團隊執行力強，市佔率不斷成長，經銷商庫存持續減少，同時滿足了農民的需求。

With this updated outlook, we believe our results further demonstrate the structural improvements in AGCO's profitability. Even in a down cycle, we're delivering stronger margins and more consistent earnings, a reflection of our transformed business model.

基於這項更新後的展望，我們相信我們的業績將進一步證明AGCO獲利能力的結構性改善。即使在經濟下行週期，我們也能實現更高的利潤率和更穩定的收益，這反映了我們商業模式的轉型。

With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator to begin the Q&A.

接下來，我將把電話轉交給接線生開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer & Company.

（操作說明）克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默公司。

I'm wondering if we can start here with the strong Europe results. And maybe just ask a simple question is how Europe performed relative to your expectations? I'm just trying to parse through some of the onetime items versus the underlying trends there? And what's supporting the outlook for a little bit more constructive growth in 2026. And I'll start there.

我想知道我們是否可以從歐洲的強勁成績開始談起。或許可以簡單問一句：歐洲的表現是否符合你的預期？我只是想弄清楚一些一次性事件和其中蘊含的潛在趨勢之間的差異？哪些因素支撐著2026年經濟可望實現更積極的成長？我就從這裡開始。

Yes, sure, Kristen. So I think Europe, I would say, performed modestly better than what we had expected, more on the top line. So volumes were a little bit stronger than what we had originally anticipated. The production, what you saw with the margins heavily influenced by the production schedule I would say, was relatively in line with what we had expected. So overall, we feel good. I think the key point for us is we look at Europe right now, the dealer inventory levels are sitting below the optimal level for us.

當然可以，克里斯汀。所以我覺得，歐洲的表現略優於我們的預期，尤其是在總成績方面。所以銷售量比我們最初預期的要高一些。就生產情況而言，考慮到利潤率很大程度上受到生產進度的影響，可以說，生產情況與我們的預期基本一致。總的來說，我們感覺良好。我認為對我們來說，關鍵在於我們現在觀察歐洲市場，經銷商的庫存水準低於我們理想的水準。

So we feel very good as we go into the fourth quarter into '26 here that we're sitting in a relatively strong position from producing in line with retail or hopefully, if the markets were to pick up. And again, we haven't given a full outlook for '26 yet. But the dealer inventory levels are positioned well there for '26.

因此，我們感覺非常好，進入 2026 年第四季度，我們處於相對強勢的地位，因為我們能夠按照零售標準進行生產，或者希望市場能夠回升。再次聲明，我們尚未對 2026 年做出全面展望。但經銷商的庫存水準為 2026 年做好了充分準備。

And then my follow-up, understanding it's very early days to digest, but any initial thoughts on the China trade agreement that was announced yesterday and how that might complement some of the government support that's been floated out there. Just early thoughts on what that could do for your North American outlook next year.

然後，我的後續問題是，我知道現在下結論還為時過早，但對於昨天宣布的中美貿易協議，以及該協議如何與政府已經提出的一些支持措施相輔相成，我有什麼初步想法嗎？這只是我對明年北美市場前景的一些初步想法。

Yes, we see this as clearly net positive. There's a combination of the soybean purchases that are more clear now for this year and the next few years. So farmers can -- that's really the core of what farmers look to is market stability and predictability. But then there's also the government support that's been strengthened. And so it's a dual positive outlook.

是的，我們認為這顯然是利大於弊的。現在，今年和未來幾年的大豆採購情況更加明朗了。所以農民可以──這才是農民真正追求的核心，那就是市場的穩定性和可預測性。但同時，政府的支持力道也得到了加強。所以這是一個雙重積極的前景。

Having said that, we think this is going to be a little bit of a show-me situation, where the farmers are going to need to have this -- have the trades actually happen. The deal actually finalized the beans actually being purchased which will then drive real pricing in the market.

話雖如此，我們認為這會是一個需要實際行動的情況，農民需要看到這些交易真正發生。該交易最終確定了實際採購的豆類產品，這將直接影響市場上的實際價格。

So our phones weren't ringing off the hook yesterday with all kinds of purchasing orders coming in. But it's net positive, that will just take some time to play out in the market, is probably more of a 2026 effect.

所以昨天我們的電話並沒有響個不停，各種採購訂單也沒有湧入。但總體而言是正面的，只是需要一些時間才能在市場上顯現出來，可能要到 2026 年才會產生影響。

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

Jamie Cook，Truist Securities。

I guess just my first question, just on the North America dealer inventory. It's nice that it came down to 8 months, I guess, versus eight to nine or nine months last quarter. I mean this sounds like this is obviously going to go into -- the excess inventory is going to go into 2026. So -- just any color there at what point in 2026 do you think we could get rightsized? And if we continue this way, and given what you're saying about North America, is there a greater risk in 2026, North America would be at a loss again for 2026. I guess that's my first question. And then I'll ask the next 1 after you answer this.

我的第一個問題是關於北美經銷商的庫存狀況。很高興最終縮短到了 8 個月，而上個季度是 8 到 9 個月。我的意思是，這聽起來很像是過剩庫存要到 2026 年才能解決。所以——隨便什麼顏色都行，你覺得我們到 2026 年什麼時候才能買到合適的尺寸？如果我們繼續這樣下去，考慮到你所說的北美的情況，2026 年的風險是否會更大？北美在 2026 年又將遭受損失。我想這是我的第一個問題。你回答完這個問題後，我再問下一個問題。

Yes, Jamie. So I think overall, North America, the team did a really good job in reducing the units (inaudible), I think Eric said around 13% down sequentially. Given the change in our industry outlook for this year with large ag being down now around 30. And as Eric alluded in his opening comments here, we do see North America down large ag down in North next year as well. That is putting pressure on us to get to that 6-month target. I don't -- we won't get there by the end of the year. I think we'll make improvement from the 8 months down, but we won't get to the six months now.

是的，傑米。所以我覺得總體來說，北美地區的團隊在減少銷量方面做得非常好（聽不清楚），我想埃里克說銷量環比下降了大約 13%。鑑於今年產業前景的變化，大型農業目前下降了約 30%。正如埃里克在開場白中所暗示的那樣，我們預計明年北美的大型農業也將受到影響。這給我們帶來了壓力，我們需要在6個月內完成目標。我不這麼認為——我們年底前達不到目標。我認為從8個月前開始我們會有所進步，但我們現在還達不到6個月的目標。

Again, that's based on our current outlook. I think as Eric just said on the prior question here, a lot of new information has come out over the last couple of days with the China trade agreement with more conversations about subsidies for the farmers and just to put it in perspective, again, our industry -- our inventory levels are based on the 12-month forward look.

再次強調，這是基於我們目前的預期。我認為正如艾瑞克剛才在前一個問題中所說，過去幾天隨著中美貿易協定的達成，出現了許多新訊息，也出現了更多關於農民補貼的討論。再次強調，我們產業的庫存水準是基於未來 12 個月的展望。

So again, if hypothetically, if large ag in North America was flat next year instead of what we're assuming is down. That would have changed my current 8 months, we would have reduced it by around half a month. And so it's fairly sensitive to what looks -- what '26 will look like.

所以，再假設一下，如果明年北美大型農業的產量持平，而不是像我們假設的那樣下降。那樣的話，我現在的8個月期限就會改變，我們會縮短大約半個月。所以它對「26 年」的景象相當敏感。

So again, if we see that market turn here based on farmer sentiment, based on increased purchasing in '26, we're going to be in line with our target fairly quickly. So a little bit hard to answer right now because I think there's a little bit of flex in the system based on some of the most recent news.

所以，如果我們看到市場因農民情緒而轉向，因 2026 年採購量增加而轉向，我們很快就會達到我們的目標。所以現在有點難回答，因為根據最近的一些消息來看，我認為這個體係有一定的彈性。

Okay. And then I guess just my second question, tariffs in the lower price. I think last quarter, the guidance assumes $0.45 in net tariff impact to EPS. Any update sort of with Section 232, how that impacts you? And just curious how we're managing the higher cost, but then obviously, you lowered your pricing assumptions. So where are you seeing the discounting? And how do you think about pricing into 2026, given what some of your peers have communicated?

好的。那麼，我的第二個問題是，低價商品是否包含關稅？我認為上個季度的業績指引假設關稅淨影響每股收益為 0.45 美元。關於第 232 條的任何更新，會對您產生什麼影響？我很好奇我們是如何應對成本上漲的，但顯然，你們降低了定價預期。那麼，你在哪裡看到折扣的？鑑於一些同行已經表達的觀點，您如何看待 2026 年的定價？

Yes. No, we're definitely -- I think the incremental Section 232 items had a relatively modest impact to our overall tariff cost. Again, as we've sort of quoted a net tariff number for 2025, I would say we are marginally worse relative to the $0.45 more due to the incremental loss volume that we're estimating here versus the industry.

是的。不，我們絕對認為——我認為第 232 條款新增項目對我們的整體關稅成本影響相對較小。再說一遍，正如我們已經大致估算了 2025 年的淨關稅數字，我認為相對於行業而言，由於我們在此估計的增量損失量，我們的情況略差，比多出的 0.45 美元要糟糕一些。

And so I think that's sort of a little bit of a challenge for us here. As we think about the pricing comment for this year, we have seen some increased competitive pricing tension more in South America and Europe, and that's what's forced us to change our outlook from what was up around 1% to somewhere in the range of 0% to 1%.

所以我認為這對我們來說算是一個小小的挑戰。在考慮今年的定價問題時，我們看到南美和歐洲的競爭價格壓力增加，這迫使我們將預期從上漲約 1% 調整為上漲 0% 至 1%。

We will still be net neutral to positive on price versus material costs, and that does include tariffs on a global basis. So we're still going to be able to cover it, but maybe not as much as we had hoped given the current environment. As we look into 2026, we're going to see how the industry dynamics play out.

我們仍將對價格與材料成本持中性或正面態度，這也包括全球範圍內的關稅。所以，我們仍然能夠報道這件事，但鑑於目前的局勢，可能不如我們希望的那麼多。展望 2026 年，我們將拭​​目以待產業動態的發展。

As we've said from the beginning, our goal is to limit the cost of the tariffs to us and to the farmers where we can't do that. We know that those costs will be centralized, likely here in North America, and we're going to look to try to spread pricing as broadly as possible.

正如我們從一開始就說過的那樣，我們的目標是盡可能減少關稅對我們自身和農民造成的損失，如果無法做到這一點，就由農民承擔這些損失。我們知道這些成本將會集中起來，很可能在北美，我們將盡可能廣泛地分散價格。

And as I, again, early look into '26, again, I think we'll -- as a total company, we should be able to cover the material cost and the pricing, but we want to get through the year-end before we give more official outlook for '26.

再次，我提前展望了 2026 年，我認為我們——作為一個整體公司，我們應該能夠覆蓋材料成本和定價，但我們希望在給出 2026 年更正式的展望之前，先度過年底。

Kyle Menges, Citigroup.

凱爾門格斯，花旗集團。

Maybe just jumping off from the last question, it would be helpful to just hear you guys elaborate a bit more on the pricing competition you're seeing, particularly, it sounds like in Brazil and in Europe, just maybe what's going on there.

或許可以接著上一個問題，如果你們能再詳細說說你​​們看到的定價競爭情況，那就太好了，特別是聽起來巴西和歐洲的情況，那裡究竟發生了什麼。

Yes. I think, Kyle, what we've seen is the South American market, especially Brazil, as we said the last quarter, has started to recover. It was the first one of our three major markets into the downturn. It started to recover mainly in the medium and low horsepower segments of the market and influenced a lot by the specialty crop farmers, coffee, citrus, and what we've seen is a little bit of a slowdown in those markets here. And so the market is still growing.

是的。凱爾，我認為，正如我們上個季度所說，南美市場，尤其是巴西市場，已經開始復甦。它是我們三大主要市場中第一個陷入衰退的市場。市場復甦主要集中在中低馬力領域，並受到咖啡、柑橘等特種作物種植者的極大影響，但我們看到這些市場出現了一些放緩。因此，市場仍在成長。

I would say we were 0% to 5% last quarter. We were probably closer to the high end of that. And as we look at some of the competitive nature down there with some discounting, especially in that segment, it's reduced our outlook now closer to the lower end of that segment.

我認為上個季度我們的佔比在0%到5%之間。我們可能更接近這個數字的上限。考慮到該細分市場的一些競爭性質以及折扣力度，尤其是該細分市場，我們已經降低了對該細分市場低端市場的預期。

Again, I think the markets are still doing well. But just given the push to try to drive volume there, we're seeing that segment of the market be a little bit more competitive in nature.

我仍然認為市場表現良好。但隨著推動銷量成長的力度加大，我們看到該細分市場的競爭變得更加激烈。

Got it. And then -- just on your earlier comments on global retail sales looking like they could be flattish year-over-year next year, assuming that's more so just talking about unit sales. I'm curious if that includes Precision at all. And it would be helpful just to hear you discuss a little bit the trends you're seeing in demand for your precision solutions into 2026. And how you feel like you're positioned in that retrofit market going into next year?

知道了。然後——就您之前關於明年全球零售銷售額可能同比持平的評論而言，假設這更多是指銷量。我很好奇這是否包括Precision。如果您能談談您認為到 2026 年貴公司精密解決方案的需求趨勢，那就太好了。那麼，您認為自己在明年的改造市場中處於什麼位置？

Yes. So maybe I'll touch on the industry comments and then I'll let Eric elaborate on the PTx business. So -- our outlook for next year is really based on retail unit sales. It's not really including parts or our PTx business. I think of that more as whole goods sales.

是的。所以，我可能會談談產業評論，然後讓艾瑞克詳細闡述PTx業務。所以——我們對明年的展望其實是基於零售銷售。它並不包括零件或我們的PTx業務。我更傾向於將其視為批發銷售。

Yes. And then PTx, we're hitting all our forecasts this year. It's going as we would plan it to be at this stage of the cycle. We're at the trough. So the parts are lower than where we ultimately want them to be.

是的。還有PTx，我們今年的所有預測都實現了。目前來看，一切都照計畫進行。我們現在正處於低谷。所以這些部件的位置比我們最終想要的位置低。

But we're signing up dealers. We've got 90 -- over 90% of our AGCO machines now going out of the factories with Trimble technology. Essentially, if you look at the 2 channels that we inherited, the precision planting and the PTx Trimble channels, we've got over 90% of the market covered and everywhere except for Brazil, and that's in the low 80s, with that dealer network, and we're working and melting those together.

但我們正在招募經銷商。我們現在有超過 90% 的 AGCO 機器出廠時都配備了 Trimble 技術。本質上，如果你看看我們繼承的兩個頻道，精準播種頻道和 PTx Trimble 頻道，我們已經覆蓋了 90% 以上的市場份額，除了巴西以外，其他地區都覆蓋了，而巴西的市場份額在 80% 左右，這得益於我們的經銷商網絡，我們正在努力將這些頻道融合在一起。

The effort to end up with combined dealers that have the full portfolio is well underway. We've got 50 of those done targets to have 78 of them by the end of the year. That will cover about 70% of the U.S. market, which is the fastest-growing precision ag business. So just trying to give you a few data points on both channel as well as technology on our product and then new technology.

實現由擁有全系列產品的合併經銷商組成的目標正在順利進行中。我們已經完成了其中 50 個目標，目標是在年底前完成 78 個。這將涵蓋美國市場約 70% 的份額，而美國則是成長最快的精準農業市場。所以，我只是想向您提供一些關於我們產品和新技術的管道和技術方面的數據點。

We had our field tech days, and PTx launched 11 new innovations this year, well ahead of what we had anticipated when we were putting the business together. So the innovation engine is probably running ahead of schedule. Financials are on track. Channel development is on track. We've got a new leader in charge of PTx. He's hitting the ground running really well. has visited many of our global operations in terms of sites and dealers.

我們舉辦了現場技術日活動，PTx 今年推出了 11 項創新產品，遠遠超出了我們在組建公司時所預期的水平。因此，創新引擎的運轉可能已經超前於預期。財務狀況一切正常。通路發展進展順利。我們有了一位負責PTx的新領導者。他上任開始表現出色，並且已經造訪了我們在全球的許多營運場所和經銷商。

And so I'm very pleased with how that's going. Just as a reminder, retrofit doesn't go down as much as the rest of the business. It only declines about 1/3 as much as the overall decline of the whole goods. And so we're seeing -- although it's down, it's not down nearly as much and as it recovers, we expect that, that will recover as well.

所以，我對目前的進展非常滿意。需要提醒的是，改造業務的下滑幅度不如其他業務那麼大。它只下降了商品整體下降幅度的約三分之一。因此我們看到——雖然有所下降，但下降幅度並不大，隨著經濟復甦，我們預期經濟也會隨之復甦。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

Tami Zakaria，摩根大通。

I wanted to get a little more clarification on the pricing outlook being changed. Can you help us with which regions or region is driving that reduction in outlook. And I just wanted to make sure, is fourth quarter pricing still positive? Or are we talking about negative pricing?

我想進一步了解價格預期變化的具體情況。您能否幫助我們確定是哪些地區或哪些地區導致了前景的下調？我只是想確認一下，第四季的定價是否仍然為正？還是我們說的是負定價？

Yes. So Tami, fourth quarter, it will still be positive. If you look at our year-to-date, I think we're up around 50 basis points, give or take. And so pricing will be up around 1% in the fourth quarter total company wise. Again, if I think about the change in the pricing, again, based on the prior -- 1 of the prior questions, the change really was driven more in South America and Europe is sort of where we saw the reductions relative to our Q2 outlook for you guys.

是的。所以塔米，第四季還是會是正數。如果看一下我們今年迄今為止的業績，我認為我們上漲了大約 50 個基點，上下浮動一些。因此，第四季公司整體定價將上漲約 1%。再說一遍，如果我考慮一下價格的變化，同樣基於之前的問題之一，這種變化實際上更多地是由南美洲和歐洲推動的，我們看到相對於我們第二季度的預期，歐洲的價格有所下降。

Understood. And my next question is I think I heard you say North America large ag now expect to be down next year. Can you help us frame what that down means as of right now? Are we talking about flat to down or down to some degree, but less than this year's 30s. Any way to frame that?

明白了。我的下一個問題是，我好像聽到您說北美大型農業預計明年會下滑。您能幫我們解釋一下，目前「下跌」究竟意味著什麼嗎？我們說的是持平或下跌，還是下跌一定程度，但低於今年的 30 度左右？有什麼辦法可以表達這個意思嗎？

Yes. Prior to the news of the last 2 days, we would have said down like, say, single digits, nowhere near as much as this year. But then -- since then, we've had a couple of pretty significant positive indicators in terms of farm support for farmers from the government and pricing stability of China buying soybeans. So where that will actually end up is unknown, but it won't be anywhere near what we saw this year. We believe we're at the bottom of a global industry.

是的。在過去兩天的消息傳出之前，我們可能會說下降幅度只有個位數，遠不及今年的降幅。但從那以後，我們看到了一些相當重要的正面指標，包括政府對農民的農業支持以及中國購買大豆的價格穩定。所以最終結果如何還不得而知，但肯定不會像今年這麼糟糕。我們認為我們處於全球產業的底層。

We believe pricing is probably at about its worst. We think pricing power will be stronger next year. And so I think that '25 is probably, in many cases, the worst of the cycle.

我們認為目前的物價水平可能已經跌至最壞的程度。我們認為明年的定價權會更強。所以我認為，在很多情況下，2025年可能是週期中最糟糕的一年。

Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

Stephen Volkmann，傑富瑞集團。

Damon, can you just give us a little bit of a walk into the fourth quarter? There's a pretty big margin expansion kind of implied in your guidance. And I'm just curious what are the buckets that kind of deliver that.

達蒙，你能帶我們稍微走一下進入第四節嗎？你的業績指引中似乎暗示著利潤率將大幅提升。我只是好奇，究竟是哪些桶子能做到這一點。

Yes. I think, Steve, for us. The margins in the fourth quarter should finish up at around 9% or a little bit over 9% to deliver the 7.5% full year. And as we look at some of the improvements, I think Europe, again, fourth quarter is generally a fairly strong quarter for Europe. And so with -- from a volume standpoint -- so we should see the margins tick up there. Asia Pacific is one of the early -- was in the down market early, and we see that improving. So I think we see a little bit of the margin coming out of there and then South America would be the other one.

是的。我認為，史蒂夫，對我們來說。第四季利潤率應該在 9% 左右或略高於 9%，從而實現全年 7.5% 的利潤率目標。當我們審視一些改進措施時，我認為歐洲，第四季通常是歐洲表現相當強勁的季度。因此，從銷售角度來看，我們應該會看到利潤率上升。亞太地區是最早進入下行市場的地區之一，但我們看到這種情況正在改善。所以我覺得我們會看到一部分利潤來自那裡，然後南美洲是另一個。

North America continues to be the challenge. If I think about the margins in North America relative to the third quarter, given the increased level of underproduction. Again, we said on the scripted remarks that we were down around 50%, and Q4 will be down. We'll be cutting production over 50% as we continue to try to focus on that dealer inventory. So I think sequentially, those margins will be even lower here in the north -- in the fourth quarter for North America.

北美地區仍然是一大挑戰。考慮到產能不足的情況增加，如果我考慮北美地區相對於第三季的利潤率。我們之前在事先準備好的演講稿中說過，我們的業績下降了約 50%，第四季也會下降。我們將減產 50% 以上，以便持續專注於滿足經銷商的庫存需求。所以我認為，從長遠來看，北美第四季北方的利潤率還會更低。

Okay. Helpful. And then maybe just to focus on the restructuring program, so the $175 million to $200 million. Is there a benefit of that in the fourth quarter? And then what would the benefit of that be in '26?

好的。很有幫助。然後或許可以集中精力進行重組計劃，金額在 1.75 億美元到 2 億美元之間。第四季這樣做會有好處嗎？那麼，到了 2026 年，這樣做有什麼好處呢？

Yes. We -- again, year-over-year, we're picking up steam as we move through the restructuring actions so there will be some benefit in the fourth quarter relative to last year. That's embedded in the outlook already. As I look at next year, you're going to get the carryover from the original $100 million to $125 million and you'll get some of the early parts of the incremental $75 million. So next year, as we look at the restructuring benefits, today, I'd say it's probably in the range of $40 million to $60 million of incremental improvement relative to 2025.

是的。我們再次強調，與去年同期相比，隨著重組措施的推進，我們的發展動能正在增強，因此與去年同期相比，第四季將會有一些好處。這種觀點已經根深蒂固了。展望明年，您將獲得最初 1 億美元到 1.25 億美元的結轉資金，並且您將獲得新增 7,500 萬美元的部分早期資金。因此，明年當我們展望重組帶來的好處時，我認為與 2025 年相比，增量改進可能在 4000 萬美元到 6000 萬美元之間。

Mig Dobre, RW Baird.

米格·多布雷，RW·貝爾德。

I want to go back to the tariff discussion, if we can. And what I'm confused about, frankly, is this interplay between Section 232 and just the normal recyclical tariffs. And I guess the way I would ask the question when we're sort of thinking about your guidance for 2025, there was a sort of cadence in the way these tariffs kind of came into play, not much impact in the first half, maybe more impact in the second. You also have FIFO accounting.

如果可以的話，我想回到關稅問題的討論上來。坦白說，我感到困惑的是第 232 條與正常的周期性關稅之間的相互作用。我想，當我們思考您對 2025 年的指導時，我會這樣問：這些關稅的實施似乎有一定的節奏，上半年影響不大，下半年影響可能更大。你也採用先進先出（FIFO）會計方法。

So I'm wondering, is it fair to think that the impact from these tariffs is actually greater in 2026 than what's embedded in the 2025 guidance? And if so, is there a way to maybe quantify it for us?

所以我想知道，這些關稅在 2026 年的影響是否真的比 2025 年的預期影響更大？如果是這樣，有沒有辦法幫我們量化一下呢？

Yes. Sure, Mig. So yes, in answer to your question, if we look at the -- there's a couple of variables to your point, we still have some costs that we have cost that have flown through our P&L related to the tariff payments we're making. Some of it is still tied up in inventory. And then we will have the full year run rate of those tariffs, assuming there are no changes.

是的。當然，米格。所以，是的，回答你的問題，如果我們看一下——你提到的幾個變量，我們仍然有一些成本已經計入了我們的損益表，這些成本與我們正在支付的關稅有關。部分產品仍積壓在庫存中。然後，假設沒有變化，我們將得到這些關稅的全年運行率。

So again, when we think about that, we've also announced that we put price actions in effect in many of our businesses, PTx parts, whole goods for model year '26. And so we have only seen a portion of that, and that's why we're sort of giving you that net effect this year.

所以，考慮到這一點，我們也宣布，我們將對 2026 年款的 PTx 零件和整車進行價格調整。因此，我們目前只看到了其中的一部分，這就是為什麼我們今年只能向大家展示最終效果的原因。

But if I just try to quantify in absolute terms what the tariff costs are, again, not mitigating with price or other actions. For next year, again, assuming no changes to what's in effect today, I would tell you that the total tariff cost are less than 1% of my total company sales.

但如果我只是想用絕對值來量化關稅成本，而不考慮價格或其他措施來緩解關稅成本，那又會怎麼樣呢？對於明年，同樣假設現行政策沒有變化，我可以告訴你，關稅總成本不到我公司總銷售額的 1%。

So this year, we're guiding to $9.8 billion. I'd say the total tariff costs on an annualized basis would be less than 1% of that. Now that would be concentrated here in North America, so the percent would be more. But as we've talked about in the past, our philosophy is to try to price in the region where we can.

因此，我們預計今年的營收將達到 98 億美元。我認為按年計算，關稅總成本將不到這個數字的 1%。現在這種情況主要集中在北美，所以比例會更高。但正如我們過去所討論過的，我們的理念是盡可能將價格定在該地區。

But to the extent we're not able to pass all of that given competitive dynamics in that region, we look for opportunities to be strategic and increased prices in other parts of the world. to offset that total cost here for the total company.

但由於該地區的競爭形勢，如果我們無法完全克服這些困難，我們會尋求在世界其他地區採取策略性措施並提高價格，以抵消公司在該地區的總成本。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then maybe a quick follow-up on South America. And I don't know if it is the right way to think about it. But when I'm sort of looking at margin here, your revenue has gradually recovered sequentially through the year.

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後或許可以快速跟進南美洲的情況。我不知道這種思考方式是否正確。但從利潤率來看，你們的收入在年內已經逐步回升。

We've seen a sequential step down in margin from the second to the third quarter despite revenue being higher. And I'm kind of wondering if this is a function of pricing, as you talked about earlier or if there's something else going on that we need to be aware of as we think about the fourth quarter?

儘管營收成長，但我們看到利潤率從第二季到第三季呈現環比下降趨勢。我有點想知道這是否像您之前提到的那樣是定價因素造成的，還是我們在考慮第四季度時需要注意的其他因素？

Yes. So I think, Mig, there's been a couple of things. The mix, if you think about year-over-year and you're thinking more the mix is, as we talked about the high horsepower segment despite all of the geopolitical stuff that we're hearing about Brazil being a beneficiary. We're not seeing the large ag part of that market picked up yet. And so what we have been seeing is that again, that medium, low horsepower specialty crops, so what you're seeing year-over-year there is really more of a mix challenge.

是的。所以我覺得，米格，有兩件事發生。如果你考慮同比數據，並且更多地考慮組合情況，正如我們討論的那樣，儘管我們聽到了關於巴西受益於地緣政治的各種消息，但高馬力細分市場仍然受益。我們尚未看到該市場中大型農業部分的需求有所回升。因此，我們看到的情況是，中低馬力特種作物再次面臨挑戰，而這種挑戰與往年相比更加複雜。

In the quarter, we had a little bit of a warranty spike year-over-year, nothing significant, but just on a quarter year-over-year basis. warranty was a little bit higher. When I think about the fourth quarter, again, you're going to see that mix headwind come in, in South America as again, we're not seeing the large horsepower pick up.

本季保固額較去年同期略有上升，但幅度不大，但季比略有成長。當我展望第四季時，你會發現南美洲再次面臨各種不利因素，因為我們仍然沒有看到大馬力汽車的復甦。

And if you look at the fourth quarter for South America specifically, last year, we called out a special tax benefit for R&D. It was about 1% to 1.5% of a margin lift. That's not repeating this year. And so those are the two drivers.

如果具體看一下南美洲的第四季度，去年我們曾提出一項針對研發的特殊稅收優惠政策。利潤率提升了約 1% 至 1.5%。今年不會再發生這種情況了。所以，以上就是兩位主要駕駛員。

As I think about the fourth quarter is really the continued mix decline year-over-year and then that 1 tax benefit that I had in the fourth quarter of 2024.

我認為第四季最大的問題是年比持續下滑，以及我在 2024 年第四季獲得的 1 項稅收優惠。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德，伯恩斯坦。

A question for you guys on North America. So can you walk through the path to margin recovery? Is there further restructuring that you can do? And then also, I guess, like how much of that headwind is just coming from tariffs?

我想問大家一個關於北美的問題。那麼，能否詳細介紹一下利潤恢復的路徑呢？是否還有進一步重組的空間？另外，我想，這些不利因素中有多少是關稅造成的呢？

Yes. So Chad, the part of the overall restructuring programs that we're talking about, some of -- a portion of that is in North America. So we will see some marginal benefits of that as we move into next year. When I look at the margins right now or the negative margins, it's heavily influenced by the level of under production. Again, I think as Eric mentioned, when you look at where we were producing in 2023, the number of hours versus what we're producing right now in the back half of '25, we're down around 70-plus percent in hours in North America.

是的。所以查德，我們正在討論的整體重組計劃的一部分，其中一些——一部分是在北美。因此，隨著我們進入明年，我們將看到一些邊際效益。當我觀察目前的利潤率或負利潤率時，會發現這很大程度是受產能不足的影響。再次，我認為正如埃里克提到的那樣，如果你看看我們 2023 年的生產情況，看看工時數與我們現在 2025 年下半年的生產情況相比，我們在北美的工時數下降了 70% 以上。

So when you just think about the cost of those factories running at that lower level of utilization that is a significant drag on the margins.

所以，想想那些工廠以較低利用率運作所帶來的成本，這會對利潤率造成很大的拖累。

On top of that, as I said, the tariff costs are centralized here. The team is doing a nice job in trying to offset that I'd say, on a dollar basis, we're not offsetting it on a margin basis. So obviously, that's going to be margin dilutive. So the key for us is to get the volume, right? We look at this industry.

此外，正如我所說，關稅成本也集中在這裡。團隊在努力彌補損失方面做得很好，但就美元而言，我們並沒有在利潤率方面彌補損失。很顯然，這將稀釋利潤率。所以對我們來說，關鍵是要獲得銷量，對吧？我們來關註一下這個行業。

And I think last year, when you exclude Grain and Protein, we were $2.3 billion or so, give or take. We need to get that volume back up. And whether that's the industry recovering, whether that's the continued focus on gaining share, all of those things are going to be critical. I'd say parts is doing quite well, but in North America, parts is a little bit weaker year over year. So again, that's a high margin part of the business.

我認為去年，如果排除穀物和蛋白質，我們的收入大約是 23 億美元左右。我們需要把銷量提上來。無論是行業復甦，還是繼續專注於獲取市場份額，所有這些都將至關重要。我認為零件產業整體表現相當不錯，但在北美，零件產業比去年同期略有下滑。所以，這又是業務中利潤率很高的一部分。

So we need the volume has to start flowing back in North America, and it's not necessarily a reflection of what we're doing. It's more a reflection of the industry because when we look at fence, we're actually gaining share here in North America you're just gaining share on a much smaller pie and you're not seeing that drop to the bottom line just given the overall industry decline.

所以我們需要北美地區的交易量開始回升，但這不一定反映出我們正在做的事情。這更反映了整個行業的情況，因為當我們觀察圍欄市場時，我們實際上在北美獲得了更大的市場份額，只是市場份額本身就小得多，而且考慮到整個行業的下滑，我們並沒有看到利潤下降。

Got it. That's super helpful. And then just secondly, you were talking about your pricing strategy to mitigate tariffs and talking about spreading it, I guess, more globally. I'd love to get a little bit more color on that. I guess what I'm trying to understand is how successful are you seeing pricing stick if you're looking to expand more globally than nearly focusing on pricing in North America?

知道了。這太有幫助了。其次，您談到了為減輕關稅影響而採取的定價策略，以及在全球範圍內更廣泛地推廣該策略。我很想了解更多細節。我想了解的是，如果您希望在全球範圍內擴張，而不是僅僅專注於北美地區的定價，那麼您認為定價策略的成功程度如何？

Maybe I'll take that one. Our strongest -- our biggest market is Europe, and we continue to grow share there even though we put pricing into that market. South America is probably the opposite. It's -- like Damon said, it's the most price competitive right now. And so it's been the 1 that's the most difficult for us to have pricing power at the moment.

或許我會選那個。我們最強大的市場——也是我們最大的市場——是歐洲，即使我們對該市場採取了定價策略，我們仍然繼續擴大在該市場的份額。南美洲的情況可能恰恰相反。正如達蒙所說，它目前是最具價格競爭力的。因此，目前我們最難對第 1 類產品擁有定價權。

But big picture, South America is going to come back as the industry comes back. We've had the most success in Europe, put the price in and gain share at the same time. So our disconnect between where we incur the tariffs and where we offset it has been working. . Remember, there's a 3-pronged strategy there.

但從大局來看，隨著產業的復甦，南美洲也將復甦。我們在歐洲取得了最大的成功，既提高了價格，也同時獲得了市場份額。因此，我們目前在關稅產生地和抵銷地之間採取的脫鉤做法是行之有效的。。記住，這裡有一個三管齊下的策略。

Number 1 is work with our supply chain to minimize the cost impact and moving products around from -- within our supply base or within our manufacturing operations is item number one. Item number two, is project reimagined. We're going to take about $200 million out of our cost structure on a little over $1 billion base. So that's a self-help area. And then only third is the pricing action.

第一要務是與我們的供應鏈合作，最大限度地減少成本影響，而將產品從我們的供應鏈內部或我們的生產營運中調配出來是首要任務。第二項內容是重新構想專案。我們將在略高於 10 億美元的基數上削減約 2 億美元的成本。所以這是一個自助領域。最後才是定價策略。

And we've been really clear all the way along is we're going to put price around the globe wherever we can, where the market will bear, and that focuses on North America.

我們一直以來都非常明確地表示，我們將盡可能在全球範圍內定價，只要市場能夠承受，而這主要集中在北美地區。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

Joel Jackson，BMO資本市場。

Was in your outlook that you expect next year, global sales flat Europe up the rest of the market is down a bit. Can you speak to knowing what your inventory levels will be at end this year, what that might mean for underproduction in the various regions we might expect next year?

您是否預期明年全球銷售將持平，歐洲市場將有所成長，而其他市場將略有下降？您能否談談您預計今年年底的庫存水平，以及這可能對我們明年預期各個地區產能不足的情況意味著什麼？

Yes, Joel, obviously, I think if we look around the world, Europe, we continue to be in a really good position. You didn't see much underproduction in Europe this year. And again, given the dealer inventories right now are sitting below our optimal level, I would say, sort of consider that relatively flat year-over-year, again, producing closer to retail or in line with retail, excuse me. South America, again, the industry is picking up year-over-year. If you remember, we had a lot of under production here in the first half of 2025.

是的，喬爾，很顯然，我認為如果我們放眼全球，尤其是歐洲，我們仍然處於非常有利的地位。今年歐洲並沒有出現太多產量不足的情況。再次強調，鑑於目前經銷商庫存低於我們的最佳水平，我認為，這可以看作是與去年同期相比相對持平，再次強調，生產更接近零售價或與零售價持平，抱歉。南美洲的產業也再次呈現逐年復甦的態勢。如果你還記得的話，我們在 2025 年上半年有很多產能不足的情況。

And so as I think about South America, you probably see some incremental positive from absorption on the full year. It will be first half weighted and then we'll start to lap the comps that we're seeing here in the third and fourth quarter, where we're producing closer to retail.

因此，當我考慮南美洲時，你可能會看到全年吸收量帶來一些正成長。上半年將採用加權平均法，然後我們將在第三季和第四季開始逐步縮小與目前同店銷售的差距，因為我們在第三季和第四季的生產更接近零售通路。

North America is in is a little bit of a wildcard. Again, if you look at what we've said with North America large ag potentially being down, dealer inventories at 8 months right now, hoping to get that closer to our target, that would likely result in some underproduction here in the early part of 2026. But as Eric said, given the recent news with the trade deal with potential incremental subsidies, in my comment that if that changes the industry outlook for large ag that may help us accelerate or not have to underproduce. But again, North America is still a little bit of a TBD next year.

北美的情況有點難以預測。再說一遍，考慮到我們之前說過北美大型農業可能出現下滑，經銷商庫存目前為 8 個月，我們希望能夠使其更接近我們的目標，這可能會導致 2026 年初出現一些產量不足的情況。但正如艾瑞克所說，鑑於最近有關貿易協定可能增加補貼的消息，我的評論是，如果這改變了大型農業的產業前景，那可能會幫助我們加快生產，或不必減少產量。但北美地區明年的情況仍有些不確定。

And then finally, can you maybe talk about what sort of subsea packing states able (inaudible) a magnitude might move the needle for your end customers? $5 billion, $10 billion, $15 billion program, where that's $50 an acre, $100 an acre. Have you thought about sort of what's needed to move the needle to get farmers to look at capital purchases and not just deleveraging or working capital?

最後，您能否談談什麼樣的海底包裝狀態能夠（聽不清楚）產生巨大的影響，從而為您的最終客戶帶來改變？50億美元、100億美元、150億美元的計劃，相當於每英畝50美元、每英畝100美元。你有沒有想過，需要做些什麼才能真正促使農民專注於資本購買，而不僅僅是去槓桿化或流動資金？

I think it needs to be over $10 billion. $10 billion to $20 billion, anything in there will get farmers' attention granted, that money is not seen as the same as market-driven profitability. They're more likely with subsidy money to pay down debt and other things because they're not sure if it's going to be sustainable in the next year and the year after. So the if the trade deal really sticks and there's a 3-year commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons type purchasing or more, that's going to drive confidence way more in farmers than will the subsidy.

我認為金額需要超過100億美元。 100億到200億美元，任何達到這個數字的金額都能引起農民的注意，儘管這筆錢並不等於市場驅動的獲利能力。他們更有可能將補貼資金用於償還債務和其他用途，因為他們不確定這種做法在未來一年和後年是否可持續。因此，如果貿易協議真的能夠維持下去，並承諾在三年內購買 2500 萬噸或更多的農產品，這將比補貼更能提振農民的信心。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略，摩根士丹利。

Just wanted to go back to maybe one of the earlier discussions on North America margins and tariffs. I just wanted to check, I guess, am I doing the math right based on what you talked about with the 1% of your sales. impact next year that, that kind of implies something approaching or kind of roughly $1 of tariff headwind. So if you could just comment on that. And then just related to that, I guess, based on what you're estimating today for kind of the North America outlook fully accepting that there's a lot of moving pieces still, which quarter would you kind of expect to see the kind of peak pressure in?

我只是想回顧一下之前關於北美利潤率和關稅的討論。我只是想確認一下，根據你剛才提到的銷售額的1%的影響，我的計算是否正確？這是否意味著明年關稅帶來的不利影響接近或約為1美元？所以，如果您能就此發表一下看法就太好了。然後，就此而言，我想，根據您今天對北美前景的估計，考慮到仍有很多不確定因素，您預計壓力會在哪個季度達到峰值？

So Angel, can you keep pressure in what regard?

所以安吉爾，你能在哪些方面保持壓力？

In terms of how you kind of spread that tariff headwind, which I'm assuming there's a little bit of a ramp-up, but can you -- as you kind of work through inventories and the flow-through of that tariff impact on your kind of P&L. So just curious which quarter would kind of be the peak of it before it starts to kind of comp your numbers?

至於如何分散關稅帶來的不利影響（我假設會有一個逐漸加劇的過程），你能——在你處理庫存以及關稅對損益表的影響時——如何應對？所以，我只是好奇，在它開始與你們的數據相媲美之前，哪個季度會是它的峰值？

Yes. Well, I think the first question, again, if our sales right now are $9.8 billion, I said less than 1%. So you're probably looking at sort of less than $1, call it, closer to $0.80, give or take, depending on how things finalize against some of these tariffs, as you know, are still changing. And those will influence some of the small horsepower tractors that we buy from others that are imported from other countries. So I don't want to be too precise, but directionally less than that. And again, that doesn't take into consideration the pricing actions I mentioned as well.

是的。嗯，我認為第一個問題，再說一遍，如果我們目前的銷售額是 98 億美元，我說不到 1%。所以，價格可能不到 1 美元，大概在 0.80 美元左右，上下浮動，具體取決於某些關稅的最終確定情況，正如你所知，這些關稅仍在變化中。這些因素將影響我們從其他國家進口的一些小馬力拖拉機。所以我不想說得太精確，但大致方向比這更精確。而且，這還沒有考慮到我之前提到的定價措施。

So again, when I gave Mig that number, that was the absolute tariff cost. That's not my net effect to P&L next year because I already have pricing actions in effect in parts, in PTx for model year '26 equipment. And so that net number will be less than that. Again, we haven't given a specific outlook. We want to see how the fourth quarter unfolds, but it will be a lot less than that absolute number that I'm quoting you for the tariff costs themselves.

所以，當我把那個數字告訴米格公司時，那就是絕對的關稅成本。這不會對明年的損益產生淨影響，因為我已經針對 2026 年款設備的零件和 PTx 實施了定價措施。因此，淨數字會小於這個數字。我們再次重申，我們沒有給予具體的展望。我們想看看第四季的情況如何，但實際金額會比我剛才提到的關稅成本絕對值低得多。

As I think about the cadence, we're starting to already see that flow through our P&L in North America, depending on the product again. As you know, we buy a lot of these medium and low horsepower tractors from other companies, depending on the level of inventory that we had in stock and that our dealers had in stock, that's flowing through over a period of time, coupled with the cost that we're incurring for some of the raw materials we're purchasing for our assembly operations here in the U.S. So again, I think it's going to phase itself in. As we get into the second quarter, I would think we'd work through most of the inventory that we've had, and we'd start to see more of the full effect I'd say, directionally around Q2.

考慮到節奏，我們已經開始在北美的損益表中看到這種趨勢，具體情況還要取決於產品。如您所知，我們從其他公司購買了大量中低馬力拖拉機，具體數量取決於我們和經銷商的庫存水平，這些庫存會在一段時間內逐步到位，再加上我們為在美國的組裝業務採購的一些原材料成本。所以，我認為這種情況會逐步改善。進入第二季後，我認為我們將消化掉大部分庫存，我認為我們將在第二季左右開始看到更全面的效果。

That's very helpful. And then maybe earlier, I think you had indicated that flat volumes next year would actually reduce your inventory levels by about half a month. And I think your current assumptions was down single digits. I guess, first, can you put a finer point on kind of what that assumption was for North America? Is that -- was it a mid-single digits or high single digits type of decline?

那很有幫助。而且，我記得您之前曾表示，如果明年銷量持平，實際上會使您庫存水準減少約半個月。我認為你目前的預期是下降個位數。首先，您能否更具體地說明一下，對於北美而言，這個假設究竟是什麼？那是指個位數中段還是個位數高段的跌幅？

And then if for some reason, I guess, volumes in North America, a large ag wind up being closer to down kind of mid-teens, which I think some investors kind of challenge checks suggest that might be a realistic risk. I guess, what's the sensitivity of your math impact on your inventory levels, if it were to be closer to the mid-teens and how much -- what does that mean for under production next year?

然後，如果由於某種原因，我猜想，北美的產量，尤其是大型農產品的產量，最終接近下降十幾個百分點，我認為一些投資者對此表示質疑，這表明這可能是一個現實的風險。我想問的是，如果庫存水準接近十幾個百分點，那麼你的數學計算結果會對庫存水準產生多大的影響？這對明年的產量不足又意味著什麼？

Yes. So I mean, we haven't given a specific number related to what we were thinking for '26. Again, it's more -- as we look at the data, as we look at the analytical models running, we're starting to see it down, I think, as Eric said, sort of in that mid-single-digit range is what we were directionally looking at. I'd rather not speculate right now with all of the recent news that's come out this week. Again, I think, as Eric said, those are both net positive data points for farmers in North America. And we're hopeful that, that has more of a positive catalyst as we go into '26.

是的。我的意思是，我們還沒有給出與我們對 2026 年的設想相關的具體數字。再說一遍，隨著我們查看數據，查看正在運行的分析模型，我們開始看到它下降，我認為，正如埃里克所說，我們大致預期它會下降到個位數的中段。鑑於本週爆出的各種新聞，我不想現在妄加猜測。我再次認為，正如艾瑞克所說，這對北美農民來說都是好消息。我們希望，隨著我們進入 2026 年，這將起到更積極的催化作用。

But obviously, to the extent it was down, you're using your mid-teens numbers, we would be forced to keep the underproduction probably longer to continue to reduce the dealer inventories. We want to make sure that we're not -- that we're getting that down to that 6 months as quickly as possible. And again, given the numbers you hear us quoting with production down over 50% again in the fourth quarter, we're being as aggressive as we can in trying to minimize the putting incremental inventory into the dealer channel here.

但顯然，如果產量下降到十幾個百分點，我們可能不得不讓產量不足的情況持續更長時間，以繼續減少經銷商的庫存。我們希望確保不會——我們希望盡快將時間縮短到 6 個月以內。再次強調，鑑於我們引用的數據，第四季度產量再次下降超過 50%，我們正在盡一切努力積極減少向經銷商通路投放的增量庫存。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Eric Hansotia for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給艾瑞克·漢索蒂亞，請他作總結發言。

Yes. Thank you for joining us today and all these thoughtful questions. AGCO continues to make meaningful progress on our transformation journey. We delivered a strong third quarter performance with strong margins, disciplined inventory management, accelerated cost reduction and healthy free cash flow generation year-to-date. I'm really proud of the team for achieving this amid macro volatility by focusing on what we can control in a dynamic environment that always -- and always keeping our eyes on putting the farmer at the center.

是的。感謝各位今天蒞臨本節目，並提出了這麼多富有見地的問題。AGCO在轉型之旅中持續取得實質進展。我們第三季業績強勁，利潤率高，庫存管理嚴格，成本削減速度加快，年初至今自由現金流狀況良好。我為團隊感到非常自豪，在宏觀經濟波動的情況下，我們專注於在動態環境中我們能夠控制的事情，並且始終將農民放在中心位置，從而取得了這樣的成就。

. In fact, the feedback we're getting from our farmers is real strong. Our Net Promoter Scores that are all-time highest level in the company's history. They like the net impact of our products and what we're doing with our dealers to serve them better. In the quarter, Europe is our biggest market, continued to provide stability.

。事實上，我們從農民那裡得到的回饋非常正面。我們的淨推薦值達到了公司歷史上的最高水準。他們喜歡我們產品帶來的實際效果，以及我們與經銷商合作，為他們提供更好服務的方式。本季度，歐洲是我們最大的市場，並持續保持穩定。

We know farmers around the world are under pressure. Our priority is supporting them with efficient machines and technology that keep them productive and profitable. We continue to execute our strategic shifts that sharpen our focus and unlock long-term potential, including the TAFE exit, the PTx creation and Product Reimagine. Our innovation flywheel is spinning faster than ever with new autonomous solutions and the launch of Farm Engage, reinforcing us as one of the most progressive leaders in smart farming.

我們知道世界各地的農民都面臨壓力。我們的首要任務是為他們提供高效的機器和技術，以保持他們的生產力和獲利能力。我們繼續執行策略轉型，以明確我們的重點並釋放長期潛力，包括退出TAFE、創建PTx和產品重塑。隨著新的自主解決方案和 Farm Engage 的推出，我們的創新飛輪比以往任何時候都轉得更快，這鞏固了我們作為智慧農業領域最具進步精神的領導者之一的地位。

And I think you'll see that on display big time at Agritechnica, the world's largest ag show coming up here in a week or so. That will be a great way to engage with all the exciting things that AGCO's got going on. Our 2025 financial outlook reflects our confidence in the strategy and the strength of our global team. Even in this challenging environment, we are investing in the future, gaining share, executing with agility and always putting the farmer first. Thank you for your participation today.

我認為你會在一周左右後舉行的全球最大農業展覽會——Agritechnica 上看到這一點。這將是參與AGCO所有精彩活動的絕佳途徑。我們對 2025 年的財務展望反映了我們對公司策略和全球團隊實力的信心。即使在如此充滿挑戰的環境下，我們仍在投資未來，努力擴大市場份額，靈活執行，始終把農民放在第一位。感謝各位今天的參與。

We really appreciate it.

我們非常感謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。