AGCO Corp (AGCO) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the AGCO third-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎參加愛科 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

Please note, this event is being recorded.

請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Greg Peterson, AGCO Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將會議交給愛科投資者關係主管 Greg Peterson。請繼續，先生。

Thanks and good morning. Welcome to those of you joining us for AGCO's third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

謝謝，早安。歡迎各位參加愛科 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

We will refer to a slide presentation this morning that's posted on our website at www.agcocorp.com. The non-GAAP measures used in the slide presentation are reconciled to GAAP measures in the appendix of that presentation. We will make forward-looking statements this morning, including statements about our strategic plans and initiatives as well as their financial impacts. We'll discuss demand, product development and capital expenditure plans and timing of those plans and our expectations concerning the costs and benefits of those plans and timing of those benefits. We'll also cover future revenue, crop production and farm income, production levels, price levels, margins, earnings, operating income, cash flow, engineering expense, tax rates, and other financial metrics. All of these are subject to risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the statements. These risks include, but are not limited to, adverse developments in the agricultural industry, supply chain disruption, inflation, weather, commodity prices, changes in product demand, the possible failure to develop new and improved products on time, including premium technology and smart farming solutions within budget and with the expected performance and price benefits, difficulties in integrating the PTx Trimble business in a manner that produces the expected financial results, reactions by customers and competitors to the transaction, including the rate at which PTx Trimble's largest OEM customer reduces purchases of PTx Trimble equipment and the rate of replacement by the joint venture of those sales, introduction of new or improved products by our competitors and reduction in pricing by them, the war in the Ukraine, difficulties in integrating acquired businesses and in completing expansion and modernization plans on time and in a manner that produces the expected financial results and adverse changes in the financial and foreign exchange markets.

我們將參考今天早上發佈在我們網站 www.agcocorp.com 上的幻燈片簡報。幻燈片簡報中使用的非 GAAP 衡量標準與該簡報附錄中的 GAAP 衡量標準進行了調整。今天早上我們將發表前瞻性聲明，包括有關我們的策略計劃和舉措及其財務影響的聲明。我們將討論需求、產品開發和資本支出計劃以及這些計劃的時間安排，以及我們對這些計劃的成本和收益以及這些收益的時間表的期望。我們還將涵蓋未來收入、農作物產量和農場收入、生產水平、價格水平、利潤、收益、營業收入、現金流、工程費用、稅率和其他財務指標。所有這些都存在可能導致實際結果與聲明中建議的結果有重大差異的風險。這些風險包括但不限於農業產業的不利發展、供應鏈中斷、通貨膨脹、天氣、大宗商品價格、產品需求的變化、可能無法按時開發新的和改進的產品，包括高端技術和智慧產品。的農業解決方案以及預期的性能和價格優勢、以產生預期財務結果的方式整合PTx Trimble 業務的困難、客戶和競爭對手對交易的反應，包括PTx Trimble 最大OEM 客戶減少的速度購買PTx Trimble 設備以及合資企業對這些銷售的更換率、我們的競爭對手推出新產品或改進的產品以及他們降低價格、烏克蘭戰爭、整合收購的業務以及完成擴張和運營方面的困難現代化計劃按時進行，並以產生預期財務結果和金融和外匯市場不利變化的方式進行。

Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by these statements. Further information concerning these, and other risks is included in AGCO's financial filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, and subsequent Form 10-Q filings. AGCO disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

實際結果可能與這些陳述所暗示的結果有重大差異。有關這些風險和其他風險的更多資訊包含在 AGCO 向美國證券交易委員會提交的財務文件中，包括截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的年度 10-K 表格以及隨後的 10-Q 表格文件。愛科不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，法律要求的除外。

We will make a replay of this call available on our corporate website.

我們將在我們的公司網站上重播本次電話會議。

On the call with me this morning is Eric Hansotia, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Damon Audia, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天早上與我通話的是我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Eric Hansotia；以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Damon Audia。

With that, Eric, please go ahead.

那麼，埃里克，請繼續。

Thanks, Greg, and good morning.

謝謝，格雷格，早安。

I wanted to touch on a few highlights from AGCO's performance against the backdrop of the cyclical downturn we're seeing in the industry before I get into the results for the quarter. 2024 has brought a significant contraction in the ag industry compared to the highly profitable years farmers saw from 2021 to 2023. The significant contraction is not uncharacteristic of prior downturns. What is different this time is how we are addressing it. We are focused on reducing inventory and cutting production faster than in prior downturns. We have been much more aggressive in reducing costs to better align our operations with the weak market environment. Despite these challenges, we remain focused on being the most farmer focused company in the industry.

在介紹本季業績之前，我想先談談愛科在產業週期性低迷背景下的業績表現的一些亮點。與農民在 2021 年至 2023 年期間看到的高利潤年份相比，2024 年農業產業出現了大幅萎縮。此次大幅收縮並非以往經濟衰退的典型特徵。這次的不同之處在於我們解決這個問題的方式。我們致力於比之前的經濟低迷時期更快地減少庫存和削減產量。我們更積極地降低成本，以便更好地適應疲軟的市場環境。儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們仍致力於成為業界最關注農民的公司。

Our three high margin growth levers, which include the Fendt, full-line globalization, precision ag and parts are central to this commitment. Although this quarter was challenging in some ways, we are confident that the steps we're taking along with these growth engines will help us deliver higher profit margins than before, and will increase the durability and resilience of AGCO's earnings through the cycle. The thoughtful and efficient growth of our North America Fendt distribution network through our farmer core model is progressing. We saw dealer consolidation in Ohio, Missouri and Wisconsin in the quarter. These new locations conserve farmers on the farm where they want to do business with the mobile fleet approach to sales and service.

我們的三個高利潤成長槓桿，包括芬特、全線全球化、精密農業和零件，是這項承諾的核心。儘管本季在某些方面充滿挑戰，但我們相信，我們與這些成長引擎一起採取的步驟將幫助我們實現比以前更高的利潤率，並將提高愛科整個週期盈利的持久性和彈性。我們的北美芬特分銷網絡透過我們的農民核心模式正在周密而高效地發展。本季我們看到俄亥俄州、密蘇裡州和威斯康辛州的經銷商整合。這些新地點將農民留在農場，他們希望透過移動車隊的銷售和服務方式來開展業務。

In addition, through the farmer core approach, AGCO dealers have also expanded their presence in Louisiana and Georgia. We are now on track to improve Fendt market coverage to over 80% this year. The momentum for Fendt continues as dealers and farmers recognize the value of the Fendt full line of products. This is evident in the third quarter when major AGCO dealers across five US states in the Midwest adapted our Fendt full line strategy. They removed competitive harvesting product lines and selected the IDEAL combine as their preferred product offering to help farmers maximize performance during their harvest.

此外，透過以農民為核心的方式，愛科經銷商也擴大了在路易斯安那州和喬治亞州的業務。今年，我們預計將 Fendt 的市場覆蓋率提高到 80% 以上。隨著經銷商和農民認識到 Fendt 全系列產品的價值，Fendt 的發展勢頭仍在繼續。這一點在第三季表現得尤為明顯，美國中西部五個州的主要愛科經銷商調整了我們的芬特全線策略。他們取消了具有競爭力的收割產品線，並選擇 IDEAL 聯合收割機作為他們的首選產品，以幫助農民在收割期間最大限度地提高績效。

This is yet just another example of the opportunities ahead for us as more and more farmers see the value of our industry-leading and award-winning Fendt products. Fendt's improved distribution and technology rich full product line has been translating into improved market share, particularly in Europe this year. Also the rebuilding of the PTx Trimble dealer network remains a top priority for us. Over the past several months, hundreds of dealers have signed distribution contracts directly with PTx Trimble to continue serving their customers with the innovative products they are seeking.

隨著越來越多的農民看到我們領先業界且屢獲殊榮的 Fendt 產品的價值，這只是我們面臨的機會的另一個例子。Fendt 改進的分銷和技術豐富的全產品線已轉化為市場份額的提高，特別是今年在歐洲。此外，重建 PTx Trimble 經銷商網路仍然是我們的首要任務。在過去的幾個月裡，數百家經銷商直接與 PTx Trimble 簽署了分銷合同，繼續為客戶提供他們正在尋求的創新產品。

Although sales and margins for PTx Trimble have been lower than we expected this year given the rapid decline in our industry, we are energized to continue integrating, innovating and growing the PTx portfolio of products and services. Leveraging the strength of the PTx Trimble portfolio along with the farmer first mindset and award-winning products from precision planting and our equipment brands, we are poised to reach new heights.

儘管由於行業的快速下滑，今年 PTx Trimble 的銷售額和利潤率低於我們的預期，但我們仍然有動力繼續整合、創新和發展 PTx 產品和服務組合。憑藉 PTx Trimble 產品組合的優勢、農民至上的理念以及精準種植和我們的設備品牌屢獲殊榮的產品，我們準備達到新的高度。

I want to reiterate that AGCO's unique retrofit strategy allows us to offer an industry leading suite of advanced technology solutions for farmers around the world looking to save on inputs or increase yields regardless of their brand of equipment. This is especially impactful in a year when farm income is down, and we can help farmers with new technology at a lower price than a brand-new piece of equipment.

我想重申，愛科獨特的改造策略使我們能夠為世界各地希望節省投入或提高產量的農民提供一套行業領先的先進技術解決方案，無論其設備品牌如何。這在農業收入下降的一年中尤其具有影響力，我們可以以比購買全新設備更低的價格為農民提供新技術。

Finally, I want to take a moment to extend my sincere thanks to the grain and protein team for their hard work during the past year with the completion of the divestiture on November 1. We couldn't have done it without them. I wish them well and look forward to their continued success. This portfolio change supports are strategic transformation and allows AGCO to focus on core agricultural machinery and precision ag technology. The PTx Trimble joint venture addition and the grain and protein divestiture are major strategic shifts that will provide margin tailwinds for AGCO over the long term.

最後，我想花點時間對穀物和蛋白質團隊在過去一年中的辛勤工作表示誠摯的感謝，並於 11 月 1 日完成了剝離。沒有他們我們就不可能做到這一點。我祝他們一切順利，並期待他們繼續取得成功。此次產品組合變更支持策略轉型，使愛科能夠專注於核心農業機械和精準農業技術。PTx Trimble 合資企業的增加以及穀物和蛋白質的剝離是重大戰略轉變，從長遠來看將為愛科帶來利潤增長。

Let's transition now to AGCO's third quarter performance on slide 3 which shows our sales is down approximately 25% and an adjusted operating margin of 5.5%. Lower sales and reduced operating leverage related to significant production cuts and a difficult pricing environment were the primary factors in our lower margins this quarter. In this environment, AGCO continues to focus on controlling the things we can manage. The restructuring announced in June is progressing well and we are continuing to explore new ways to leverage technology and global centers of excellence to optimize our operating model.

現在讓我們來看看幻燈片 3 上愛科第三季的業績，其中顯示我們的銷售額下降了約 25%，調整後的營業利潤率為 5.5%。與大幅減產和困難的定價環境相關的銷售下降和營運槓桿下降是本季利潤率下降的主要因素。在這種環境下，愛科繼續專注於控制我們可以管理的事情。六月宣布的重組進展順利，我們正在繼續探索利用技術和全球卓越中心來優化我們的營運模式的新方法。

Since the announcement, we have begun to see some of these savings materialize this quarter and we are confident in achieving the full $100 million to $125 million of run rate cost savings midway through 2025. The biggest challenge for AGCO this past quarter was destocking the dealer inventory channel. Despite the significant production cut in quarter three 2024 which was the largest year over year AGCO cut has ever taken in over a decade, the market conditions have made the outlook more challenging. I want to touch on these details later, but I wanted to provide some context for now on how we're aggressively trying to right size dealer inventories.

自從宣布這一消息以來，我們已經開始看到其中一些節省在本季度得以實現，我們有信心在 2025 年中期實現 1 億至 1.25 億美元的運行成本節省。愛科上個季度面臨的最大挑戰是經銷商庫存通路的去庫存。儘管愛科在 2024 年第三季大幅減產，這是十多年來最大幅度的年減產，但市場狀況使前景更具挑戰性。我想稍後討論這些細節，但我現在想提供一些背景信息，說明我們如何積極嘗試調整經銷商庫存規模。

Slide 4 details industry unit retail sales by region for the first nine months of 2024. Global industry retail sales of farm equipment continued to be weak in all of AGCO's key markets. North American industry retail tractor sales decreased 11% for the first nine months of 2024 compared to the first nine months of 2023. Sales declines were relatively consistent across the horsepower categories with higher horsepower categories declining more in recent months. In Western Europe industry, retail tractor sales decreased 6% during the first nine months of 2024 compared to the first nine months of 2023. South American industry retail tractor sales decreased 9% during the first nine months of 2024 compared to the first nine months of 2023.

投影片 4 詳細介紹了 2024 年前 9 個月按地區劃分的行業單位零售額。愛科所有主要市場的全球農業設備產業零售額持續疲軟。與 2023 年前 9 個月相比，2024 年前 9 個月北美工業零售拖拉機銷量下降了 11%。各馬力類別的銷售下降相對一致，近幾個月高馬力類別的銷售下降幅度更大。在西歐產業，2024 年前 9 個月拖拉機零售銷量與 2023 年前 9 個月相比下降了 6%。與 2023 年前 9 個月相比，2024 年前 9 個月南美洲工業零售拖拉機銷量下降 9%。

Demand in Brazil was negatively impacted by the floods in Rio Grande do Sul which -- where a challenging first harvest in the Cerrado region continues to affect farmers' buying behavior. Following three strong years of retail demand in South America, it's expected to remain soft in 2024 as a result of lower commodity prices and weaker farm income. The combine industry was down significantly in all regions through the first nine months of 2024 ranging between 19% and 35% down year over year depending on the region. Despite the current downcycle of the agricultural industry, AGCO is well-positioned to capitalize on the long-term growth in our sector. Farmers are being asked to produce more crops with fewer acres as the world's population grows and food security becomes increasingly more important.

巴西的需求受到南里奧格蘭德州洪水的負面影響，塞拉多地區首次收成充滿挑戰，持續影響農民的購買行為。南美零售需求在經歷了三年的強勁表現後，由於大宗商品價格下跌和農業收入下降，預計 2024 年零售需求將保持疲軟。2024 年前 9 個月，所有地區的聯合收割機產業都大幅下滑，年減 19% 至 35%，視地區而定。儘管當前農業產業處於下行週期，但愛科仍處於有利地位，可以利用我們產業的長期成長。隨著世界人口的成長和糧食安全變得越來越重要，農民被要求用更少的土地生產更多的農作物。

We have also taken decisive steps to focus our product portfolio on precision AG technology with the PTx Trimble joint venture and precision planting complemented by an industry leading machinery that is the best in AGCO's history. While commodity prices are down compared to the recent past, the cost of farm inputs have also come down though not to the same degree. With AGCO's tech stack, farmers can further reduce their expenses with precise application of fertilizer, seeds and by leveraging data analytics with our tools. AGCO's mix fleet retrofit solutions typically offer a one year to two-year payback and are available at a significantly lower cost compared to buying a new machine.

我們也採取了果斷措施，將我們的產品組合集中在精密 AG 技術上，透過 PTx Trimble 合資企業和精密種植技術，輔以 AGCO 歷史上最好的行業領先機械。雖然大宗商品價格與近期相比有所下降，但農業投入成本也有所下降，儘管幅度不同。借助愛科的技術堆棧，農民可以透過精確施肥、種子以及利用我們的工具進行數據分析來進一步減少開支。愛科的混合機群改造解決方案通常可提供一年到兩年的投資回收期，與購買新機器相比，其成本要低得多。

AGCO's 2024 factory production hours are shown on slide 5. Our production decreased in the third quarter by approximately 35% which was 19% more than we anticipated in our third quarter guidance. Significant reductions were made in all regions with the biggest reductions occurring in South America and North America. Reducing dealer and company inventory remains a key priority for us as the market continues to soften. While we have brought dealer inventory down by 6% on a unit basis, sequentially from quarter two to quarter three with our significant production cuts. Further weakening end market retail demand has resulted in an increase in months of supply on a forward-looking basis.

投影片 5 顯示了愛科 2024 年工廠生產時間。第三季我們的產量下降了約 35%，比我們第三季指引中的預期高出 19%。所有地區均大幅減少，其中南美洲和北美洲減少幅度最大。隨著市場持續疲軟，減少經銷商和公司庫存仍然是我們的首要任務。雖然從第二季到第三季我們大幅減產，但我們已將經銷商庫存按單位計算減少了 6%。終端市場零售需求的進一步疲軟導致前瞻性供應量增加。

In response, we are cutting production even further. Our new 2024 production guidance now reflects a 25% year over year reduction in production hours. Even with this more aggressive reduced production schedule, our current outlook for 2025 North America and South America will likely result in production less than retail demand in the first part of 2025. Diving into the regional breakdown. In Europe, tractors have approximately three months of orders which is down from last quarter. Dealer inventories rose roughly half a month and are now closer to five months of supply above our target level of four months. Massey Ferguson and Valtra dealer inventories are a bit higher and Fendt, a bit lower than the average in part due to strong share gains on Fendt.

作為回應，我們進一步削減產量。我們新的 2024 年生產指引現在反映出生產時間年減了 25%。即使採取更積極的減產計劃，我們目前對 2025 年北美和南美的展望也可能導致 2025 年上半年的產量低於零售需求。深入研究區域細分。在歐洲，拖拉機的訂單量約為三個月，較上季有所下降。經銷商庫存增加了大約半個月，目前的供應量比我們四個月的目標水準高出接近五個月。麥賽福格森 (Massey Ferguson) 和維美德 (Valtra) 經銷商庫存略高於平均水平，而芬特 (Fendt) 略低於平均水平，部分原因是芬特 (Fendt) 的強勁份額增長。

In South America, we have order coverage through December 2024 where we continue to limit our orders to one quarter in advance due to inflationary pressures. Despite our aggressive production cuts and the reduction in the number of units at the dealers, our 12-month sales outlook results in around 5 months of dealer inventory across all products as the industry conditions continue to remain weak. Our goal is to have around three months of dealer inventory which will likely require further reduced production in 2024 and '25 based on the current environment.

在南美，我們的訂單覆蓋範圍截至 2024 年 12 月，由於通膨壓力，我們繼續將訂單提前四分之一限制。儘管我們大幅減產並減少經銷商的單位數量，但由於行業狀況持續疲弱，我們的 12 個月銷售前景導致所有產品的經銷商庫存僅剩 5 個月左右。我們的目標是擁有大約三個月的經銷商庫存，根據當前環境，這可能需要在 2024 年和 25 年進一步減少產量。

In North America, we currently have approximately four months of order coverage. Smaller rural lifestyle equipment has the lowest order coverage while bigger equipment is higher. Like the challenge in South America, our dealer inventory increased by one month compared to last quarter as industry conditions have continued to weaken and is now approximately nine months of supply. Our North American targets for dealer inventory range from four to six months depending on the product. We will continue to focus on underproducing retail demand coupled with retail market share execution to bring dealer inventories in line with our targeted range.

在北美，我們目前有大約四個月的訂單覆蓋範圍。較小的農村生活設備的訂單覆蓋率最低，而較大的設備則較高。與南美洲的挑戰一樣，由於行業狀況持續疲軟，我們的經銷商庫存比上一季增加了一個月，目前供應量約為九個月。我們的北美經銷商庫存目標為四到六個月，具體取決於產品。我們將繼續專注於生產不足的零售需求以及零售市場份額的執行，以使經銷商庫存符合我們的目標範圍。

The current environment resulted in lower production levels in the fourth quarter and in 2025.

目前的環境導致第四季和 2025 年的生產水準較低。

Moving to slide 6 where you'll see our three high margin growth levers aimed at improved -- improving our mid cycle operating margins to 12% and outgrowing the industry by 4% to 5% annually. To reiterate these three growth levers are: number one, globalization and full-line product roll out of our Fendt brand. Number two, focusing on accelerating our Global Parts business and increasing the market share of genuine AGCO parts. And number three, growing our precision ag business. We continue to execute on each of these initiatives and I want to highlight a few of the most recent new product introductions supporting our growth plans.

轉到幻燈片 6，您將看到我們的三個高利潤成長槓桿旨在改進——將我們的中期營運利潤率提高到 12%，每年增長超過行業 4% 到 5%。重申這三個成長槓桿是：第一，我們的 Fendt 品牌的全球化和全系列產品的推出。第二，專注於加速我們的全球零件業務並提高愛科正品零件的市場份額。第三，發展我們的精密農業業務。我們將繼續執行這些舉措，我想重點介紹一些支持我們成長計畫的最新新產品介紹。

Slide 7 spotlights the products we have brought to North America market at the Farm Progress Show in late August. On the technology front, we brought -- we officially launched the OutRun retrofit autonomy kit available through PTx Trimble. OutRun is the first commercially available autonomous retrofit grains cart solution in the market and the latest offering that demonstrates our commitment to retrofit first and mixed fleets. The autonomous grain cart allows a single combine driver to operate two pieces of machinery simultaneously. The combine driver can stage the autonomous tractor on the field, call the tractor so it can pull alongside the combine and receive the grain on the go and finally, send the tractor to an unload zone, all without requiring a driver in the tractor cab.

幻燈片 7 重點介紹了我們在 8 月底的 Farm Progress Show 上向北美市場推出的產品。在技​​術方面，我們正式推出了透過 PTx Trimble 提供的 OutRun 改裝自主套件。OutRun 是市場上第一個商用的自主改裝穀物車解決方案，也是體現我們對改裝第一批和混合車隊的承諾的最新產品。自動穀物車允許單一聯合收割機駕駛員同時操作兩台機器。聯合收割機駕駛員可以將自動拖拉機停放在田間，呼叫拖拉機，使其可以在聯合收割機旁邊行駛並接收行駛中的穀物，最後將拖拉機發送到卸載區，所有這些都不需要拖拉機駕駛室中的駕駛員。

The OutRun hardware is available initially on two tractor brands with more to follow. This kit will be the backbone of AGCO's system to allow fully autonomous solutions across the crop cycle by 2030. This is just the first step of many. As we showed at our technology days earlier this year, we are already working on the next phase where the combine can operate two grain carts simultaneously. As more phases of the crop cycle are automated, the same OutRun hardware can be used which allows for a simple unlock from a farmer standpoint. This product will also bring AGCO a recurring revenue stream where farmers will be billed for every active task hour where the tractor is running in autonomous mode. Farmers can purchase hours a few different ways: pay as you go, hourly bundle or unlimited.

OutRun 硬體最初在兩個拖拉機品牌上提供，後續還會有更多品牌推出。該套件將成為愛科系統的支柱，並在 2030 年實現整個作物週期的完全自主解決方案。這只是許多步驟的第一步。正如我們在今年早些時候的技術日上所展示的那樣，我們已經在下一階段的工作中，聯合收割機可以同時操作兩輛穀物車。隨著作物週期的更多階段實現自動化，可以使用相同的 OutRun 硬件，從農民的角度來看，這允許簡單的解鎖。該產品還將為愛科帶來經常性收入來源，農民將根據拖拉機在自主模式下運作的每個活躍任務小時付費。農民可以透過幾種不同的方式購買工時：即用即付、按小時捆綁或無限制。

We are very excited about this launch and helping farmers drive increased efficiency during one of their most critical points in the season. On the machinery side, North America is getting several new products in the coming year starting with the new Massey Ferguson 9S tractor which completes Massey Ferguson's tractor lineup. This new product delivers an industry leading cost of ownership experience for our farmers through field proven technology, better dependability and better fluid efficiency. The MF 9S enables our dealers to deliver a solution for farmers that optimizes yield, reduces operator training and enhances field efficiency. We also launched the Fendt 600 which brings an uncompromising product that perfectly blends power and versatility. It's a great option for those looking for a machine that can handle a wide range of jobs from the row crop farming to loader work, to transport and anything in between.

我們對此次推出感到非常興奮，並幫助農民在本季最關鍵的時刻之一提高效率。在機械方面，北美將在來年推出幾款新產品，首先是新型麥賽福格森 9S 拖拉機，該拖拉機完善了麥賽福格森的拖拉機產品線。該新產品透過經過現場驗證的技術、更好的可靠性和更好的流體效率，為我們的農民提供了領先業界的擁有成本體驗。MF 9S 使我們的經銷商能夠為農民提供解決方案，以優化產量、減少操作員培訓並提高田間效率。我們也推出了 Fendt 600，它帶來了完美融合動力和多功能性的不妥協產品。對於那些正在尋找一台可以處理各種工作的機器的人來說，這是一個很好的選擇，從行耕作物種植到裝載機工作，再到運輸以及介於兩者之間的任何工作。

And finally, the new Gleaner T Series combine has been refreshed, offering a lightweight performance, superior control and premium grain quality for the best value in farmers' fields. This straightforward and dependable product complements our premium spent, IDEAL combine, in North America and allows our dealers to offer several options to their customers. As I mentioned earlier, AGCO's product lineup is the best it's ever been. The innovation and performance of these new offerings is a testament to our continued investment in R&D over the years and our farmer first focus.

最後，新型 Gleaner T 系列聯合收割機已煥然一新，具有輕量級性能、卓越的控制能力和優質的穀物質量，為農田帶來最佳價值。這種簡單可靠的產品補充了我們在北美的優質消費性 IDEAL 聯合收割機，並允許我們的經銷商為其客戶提供多種選擇。正如我之前提到的，愛科的產品陣容是有史以來最好的。這些新產品的創新和性能證明了我們多年來對研發的持續投資以及我們對農民的關注。

I'll now hand it over to Damon to walk you through some of the financials from the quarter.

現在我將把它交給達蒙，讓您了解本季的一些財務數據。

Thank you, Eric and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，艾瑞克，大家早安。

Slide 8 provides an overview of regional net sales performance for the third quarter. Net sales were down approximately 26% in the quarter compared to the third quarter of 2023 when excluding the negative effect of currency translation and positive impact of acquisitions. By region, the Europe Middle East segment reported sales down roughly 21% in the quarter compared to the same period in 2023 excluding the impact of favorable currency translation and favorable impacts of acquisitions. Sales were down in nearly all countries with declines in France, Germany and Italy showing the largest reduction. The product segments showing the most significant declines were midrange tractors, high horsepower tractors and hay equipment. Parts showed modest growth.

投影片 8 概述了第三季的區域淨銷售業績。在排除貨幣換算的負面影響和收購的正面影響後，本季淨銷售額較 2023 年第三季下降約 26%。按地區劃分，不考慮有利的貨幣換算和收購的有利影響，歐洲中東部門本季銷售額較 2023 年同期下降約 21%。幾乎所有國家的銷售額都出現下降，其中法國、德國和義大利的降幅最大。下降最顯著的產品領域是中型拖拉機、大馬力拖拉機和乾草設備。零件呈現溫和成長。

South American net sales decreased approximately 44% excluding the impact of unfavorable currency translation and favorable impact of acquisitions. The market continues to be very challenged, and we continue to underproduce relative to retail demand. Tractors, combines and implements all showed large reductions. In the quarter, there was significant negative mix year over year as the high horsepower segment of the tractor market underperformed the medium and low horsepower segments. The Brazilian market was down the most while Argentina was modestly down. Net sales in North American region decreased approximately 22% excluding the impact of unfavorable currency translation and favorable impacts of acquisitions. Lower farm income continues to pressure farmer purchasing behavior.

排除不利貨幣換算和收購有利影響的影響，南美淨銷售額下降約 44%。市場仍面臨很大的挑戰，相對於零售需求，我們的產量持續不足。拖拉機、聯合收割機和機具均大幅減少。本季度，由於拖拉機市場的高馬力細分市場表現落後於中低馬力細分市場，比去年同期出現了顯著的負面混合。巴西市場跌幅最大，阿根廷市場則小幅下跌。排除不利的貨幣換算和收購的有利影響，北美地區的淨銷售額下降約 22%。農場收入下降持續給農民的購買行為帶來壓力。

High horsepower tractors and hay equipment saw the largest declines. Net sales in Asia Pacific Africa decreased 15% excluding favorable currency translation impacts and favorable impact of acquisitions due to weaker end market demands and lower production volumes. The most significant declines occurred in Africa, China and Australia. Finally, consolidated replacement part sales were approximately $488 million for the third quarter, up 4% on a reported basis and up approximately 5% year over year when excluding the effect of negative currency translation.

大馬力拖拉機和乾草設備跌幅最大。排除有利的貨幣換算影響以及由於終端市場需求疲軟和產量下降導致的收購帶來的有利影響，亞太非洲地區的淨銷售額下降了 15%。最顯著的下降發生在非洲、中國和澳洲。最後，第三季綜合更換零件銷售額約 4.88 億美元，依報告計算成長 4%，若排除負匯率換算的影響，較去年同期成長約 5%。

Turning to slide 9. The third quarter adjusted operating margin declined by 710 basis points versus a record third quarter of 2023. Margins in the quarter were heavily affected by the significant decline in production, reflective of the increasingly weak industry conditions along with the higher discounts given the weak retail demand across the world. By region, the Europe Middle East segment income from operations decreased by $116 million and the operating margins decreased by 620 basis points compared to the same period in 2023. The reduced margins were primarily a result of lower sales volume, factory under absorption from reduced production and increased discounts. North American income from operations decreased approximately $87 million year over year and operating margins were 7.2%.

轉到投影片 9。第三季調整後營業利潤率比 2023 年第三季創紀錄的水準下降了 710 個基點。本季的利潤率受到產量大幅下降的嚴重影響，反映出產業狀況日益疲軟，以及全球零售需求疲軟導致折扣增加。按地區劃分，歐洲中東板塊營運收入較2023年同期下降1.16億美元，營運利潤率下降620個基點。利潤率下降的主要原因是銷售下降、工廠因產量減少和折扣增加而被吸收。北美地區的營運收入年減約 8,700 萬美元，營運利潤率為 7.2%。

The decrease resulted from lower sales volume and increased factory under absorption, increased warranty expenses and higher SG&A expenses associated with the consolidation of the PTx Trimble business. Operating income in South America decreased by approximately $105 million. This decrease was primarily a result of continued weak market conditions resulting in lower sales and significantly lower production volumes as well as increased discounts year over year. The operating margins in the quarter were 11.8% driven by cost savings measures at the factories and in SG&A expenses as well as a one-time tax benefit in Argentina that flowed through cost of goods sold that contributed approximately 200 basis points of margin improvement.

下降的原因是銷售下降、吸收工廠增加、保固費用增加以及與 PTx Trimble 業務合併相關的 SG&A 費用增加。南美洲的營業收入減少約1.05億美元。這一下降主要是由於市場狀況持續疲軟，導致銷售下降、產量大幅下降以及折扣逐年增加。本季的營業利潤率為 11.8%，這得益於工廠的成本節約措施和銷售管理費用以及阿根廷的一次性稅收優惠（透過銷售成本實現），從而使利潤率提高了約 200 個基點。

Lastly, income from operations in our Asia Pacific Africa segment decreased by approximately $12 million due to lower sales and production volumes.

最後，由於銷售量和產量下降，亞太非洲部門的營運收入減少了約 1,200 萬美元。

Slide 10 details our September year to date free cash flow for 2023 and 2024. As a reminder, free cash flow represents cash used in or provided by operating activities less purchases of property, plant and equipment and free cash flow conversion is defined as free cash flow divided by adjusted net income. We used $387 million of cash through September of 2024, approximately $232 million more than the same period of 2023. Lower net income in 2024 is the primary driver of the year over year change. For the full year, we continue to expect our free cash flow to be in the upper half of our long-term targeted range of 75% to 100% of adjusted net income, putting us between $435 million to $580 million. We remain committed to our balanced capital allocation plan which includes reinvesting back in the business, repaying debt to maintain our investment grade credit ratings and rewarding investors with direct returns.

幻燈片 10 詳細介紹了 2023 年和 2024 年 9 月迄今為止的自由現金流。提醒一下，自由現金流是指經營活動中使用或提供的現金減去購買的不動產、廠房和設備，自由現金流轉換的定義是自由現金流除以調整後的淨利。截至 2024 年 9 月，我們使用了 3.87 億美元的現金，比 2023 年同期增加了約 2.32 億美元。2024 年淨利下降是年比變動的主要驅動因素。就全年而言，我們繼續預計我們的自由現金流將處於調整後淨利潤的 75% 至 100% 長期目標範圍的上半部分，即 4.35 億美元至 5.8 億美元之間。我們仍然致力於平衡的資本配置計劃，其中包括對業務進行再投資、償還債務以維持我們的投資等級信用評級以及以直接回報獎勵投資者。

On November 1, we repaid the $500 million outstanding under the term loan facility utilizing the proceeds from the grain and protein business. In addition to the regular quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share, as a reminder, we also paid a special variable dividend of $2.50 per share in the second quarter. AGCO has paid over $1.2 billion in special variable dividends over the last four years. We will remain focused on deploying capital in the most effective ways for our long-term shareholders.

11 月 1 日，我們利用穀物和蛋白質業務的收益償還了定期貸款安排下未償還的 5 億美元。提醒一下，除了每股 0.29 美元的常規季度股息外，我們還在第二季支付了每股 2.50 美元的特別可變股息。愛科在過去四年中支付了超過 12 億美元的特別可變股息。我們將繼續專注於以最有效的方式為我們的長期股東配置資本。

Slide 11 highlights our 2024 market forecast for our three major regions which has not changed from the last quarter. For North America, we still expect the demand to be 10% to 15% lower compared to the levels in 2023. For Western Europe, we continue to expect the industry to be down 5% to 10% compared to 2023. Farmer sentiment and other indices have been hovering at historic lows for a few months now due to reduced commodity prices and higher input costs. Our forecast for South America remains unchanged indicating a 25% to 30% industry decline in 2024.

投影片 11 重點介紹了我們對三個主要地區的 2024 年市場預測，該預測與上個季度相比沒有變化。對於北美，我們仍然預計需求將比 2023 年的水準下降 10% 至 15%。對於西歐，我們繼續預計該行業與 2023 年相比將下降 5% 至 10%。由於大宗商品價格下跌和投入成本上升，農​​民信心和其他指數幾個月來一直徘徊在歷史低點。我們對南美洲的預測保持不變，顯示 2024 年該產業將下降 25% 至 30%。

Slide 12 captures the assumptions related to our 2024 outlook which now reflects the divestiture of the grain and protein business as of November 1. Despite the weakening market conditions, our sales plan includes market share gains. We are updating our full year pricing to reflect about a negative 0.5% year on year. This pricing assumption is comprised of positive pricing in North America offset by negative pricing in South America and modestly negative pricing in Europe. Our raw material costs have stabilized and declined in certain cases. We are continuing to pursue cost savings and look to be about break even on a net pricing basis.

幻燈片 12 捕捉了與我們 2024 年展望相關的假設，該展望現在反映了截至 11 月 1 日穀物和蛋白質業務的剝離。儘管市場狀況疲軟，我們的銷售計劃仍包括擴大市場份額。我們正在更新全年定價，以反映同比下降 0.5% 左右。該定價假設由北美的正定價、南美的負定價和歐洲的適度負定價所抵銷。我們的原材料成本在某些情況下已經穩定並下降。我們將繼續追求成本節約，並希望在淨定價的基礎上實現收支平衡。

We expect currency translation to have no meaningful effect on our sales year over year while our prior guidance had assumed about a negative 1% adverse effect on sales year over year. Engineering expenses are now expected to be down 5% in 2024 compared to 2023 including PTx Trimble and 11% excluding PTx Trimble. We are reaffirming our adjusted operating margin target of approximately 9% which we view as achievable given the sales outlook and cost savings initiatives we have executed coupled with the structural changes we've made to our business. We see 2024 as being around 90% of mid cycle, almost 15% below 2023 where AGCO saw a record adjusted operating margin of 12%.

我們預期貨幣換算不會對我們的銷售額年比產生重大影響，而我們先前的指導假設對銷售額年比產生約 1% 的負面影響。目前預計 2024 年的工程費用將比 2023 年下降 5%（包括 PTx Trimble），不包括 PTx Trimble 則下降 11%。我們重申調整後的營業利潤率目標約為 9​​%，鑑於我們已執行的銷售前景和成本節約舉措以及我們對業務進行的結構性變革，我們認為該目標是可以實現的。我們預計 2024 年將處於週期中期的 90% 左右，比 2023 年愛科調整後營業利潤率創紀錄的 12% 低近 15%。

Despite the challenges in the third quarter, we are confident that the AGCO team can deliver the 9% on a full year basis. This would represent among the highest adjusted operating margins ever achieved, not only well above the prior trough of 4.1% adjusted operating margins we saw in 2016 but also higher than previous peak margins before we began executing our current strategy. We will provide updated long term mid cycle operating margin targets at our December 19 analyst meeting to account for the performance of PTx Trimble and the divestiture of our grain and protein business. Our effective tax rate is anticipated to be approximately 30% for 2024, in line with our prior guidance.

儘管第三季面臨挑戰，但我們有信心愛科團隊能夠實現全年 9% 的目標。這將是有史以來最高的調整後營業利潤率之一，不僅遠高於我們在2016 年看到的4.1% 調整後營業利潤率的低谷，而且也高於我們開始執行當前策略之前的先前峰值利潤率。我們將在 12 月 19 日的分析師會議上提供更新的長期中期營業利潤率目標，以考慮 PTx Trimble 的表現以及我們穀物和蛋白質業務的剝離。根據我們先前的指導，我們 2024 年的有效稅率預計約為 30%。

Turning to slide 13 for a revised 2024 outlook. Our full year net sales outlook is now $12 billion, down from our previous outlook reflective of the market environment and the elimination of the grain and protein sales for the balance of the year. We are reducing our adjusted earnings per share forecast to $7.50, down from our prior guidance of $8 which is also reflective of the market environment and the elimination of the grain and protein sales for the balance of the year. Given the weak market environment, we are modestly reducing our CapEx spending to approximately $450 million. Our free cash flow conversion should be at the upper end of our targeted 75% to 100% of adjusted net income, consistent with our long-term target.

請參閱投影片 13，以了解修訂後的 2024 年展望。我們的全年淨銷售預期目前為 120 億美元，低於先前的預期，反映了市場環境以及今年剩餘時間穀物和蛋白質銷售的取消。我們將調整後每股收益預測從先前的 8 美元下調至 7.50 美元，這也反映了市場環境以及今年剩餘時間穀物和蛋白質銷售的取消。鑑於疲軟的市場環境，我們將適度減少資本支出至約 4.5 億美元。我們的自由現金流轉換應處於調整後淨利潤 75% 至 100% 的目標上限，這與我們的長期目標一致。

On slide 14, you can see the details for our 2024 analyst event where we will provide sell side analysts and investors an update on our business. We hope you will join us, and we look forward to seeing you there.

在幻燈片 14 上，您可以看到 2024 年分析師活動的詳細信息，我們將在活動中向賣方分析師和投資者提供有關我們業務的最新信息。我們希望您能加入我們，我們期待在那裡見到您。

With that, I'll turn it back over to the operator for Q&A.

這樣，我會將其轉回給操作員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Jamie Cook, Truist.

（操作說明）Jamie Cook，Truist。

I guess two questions. First on the guide for 2024. You're maintaining your margin guide. Pricing is an incremental headwind. Relative to the previous guide, your sales forecast is lower and so it sort of implies margins in the fourth quarter have to reach 10% versus 5.5% in the third quarter. So just trying to understand the margin ramp there and what would be driving that. And then my second question just on AGCO dealer inventories. I mean it sounds like you're saying the market is getting weaker, your dealer inventories are still bloated yet, but you haven't changed your retail sales forecast. So I'm just trying to understand what's AGCO specific versus the industry and like to what degree is there any way you could frame the production cuts in South America and North America in the first half of 2025.

我猜有兩個問題。首先是 2024 年指引。您正在維持保證金指南。定價是一個增量阻力。相對於先前的指南，您的銷售預測較低，因此這意味著第四季度的利潤率必須達到 10%，而第三季的利潤率為 5.5%。因此，只是想了解那裡的利潤率上升以及推動其發展的因素。我的第二個問題是關於愛科經銷商的庫存。我的意思是，聽起來你是在說市場正在變得疲軟，你的經銷商庫存仍然臃腫，但你並沒有改變你的零售銷售預測。因此，我只是想了解愛科相對於該行業的具體情況，以及有什麼方法可以在 2025 年上半年制定南美和北美的減產計劃。

Sure. So Jamie, we'll go to your first question on the 10% outlook for the fourth quarter. Again, if I think about how I would look at it the third quarter where you alluded to the 5.5%, I think there's a couple of key differences here as we go into the fourth quarter. One is the production levels in Europe will be higher in the fourth quarter than they were in the third quarter and the fact that they should be up at around 40% from Q4 versus Q3. We made the decision in the third quarter to really elongate some of the seasonal shutdown there given the inventory and we're still seeing fairly good demand in many parts of Europe.

當然。Jamie，我們將回答您關於第四季 10% 前景的第一個問題。再說一遍，如果我考慮如何看待您提到的 5.5% 的第三季度，我認為當我們進入第四季度時，這裡存在一些關鍵差異。一是歐洲第四季的生產水準將高於第三季度，而且第四季與第三季度相比應該會成長 40% 左右。考慮到庫存，我們在第三季決定真正延長一些季節性停工時間，而且我們仍然看到歐洲許多地區的需求相當不錯。

So we will see a little bit higher production in the fourth quarter in Europe, specifically. Third quarter, we did do something strategically related to a large European dealer who was dealing with some financial challenges. That was a little bit uncertain in the third quarter. For the most part, they have worked through that. We have much better clarity, and we expect to see a little bit of incremental volume related to that flowing from what would have been in Q3 flowing into Q4. So those would be a couple of things. In addition to that, that Q4 is always our seasonally strongest quarter that we'll see some improvements there. And then internally specific to AGCO, the cost actions that we've been implementing, we continue to see those pick up as we move month to month, and we start to take out more of the associates and our warranty.

因此，我們將看到歐洲第四季的產量增加。第三季度，我們確實針對一家正在應對一些財務挑戰的大型歐洲經銷商做了一些與策略相關的事情。第三季有點不確定。在很大程度上，他們已經解決了這個問題。我們有更好的清晰度，我們預計會看到一些與從第三季流入第四季的增量相關的增量。所以這些就是幾件事。除此之外，第四季始終是我們季節性最強的季度，我們會在那裡看到一些改進。然後，針對愛科內部，我們一直在實施的成本行動，隨著我們逐月的行動，我們繼續看到這些行動有所回升，並且我們開始取消更多的員工和保固。

Again, we have a little bit of a spike here in the third quarter. We expect that to get more into the normalized rates here as we go into the fourth quarter. So at the end of the day, we feel good. We know the teams are working to drive the retail sellout even in the weakening environment. I would make your comment on pricing, probably the effective offset to that is FX is a little bit more of a tailwind for us here relative to where we were at the end of the third quarter. And those two sort of wash themselves out a little bit but overall, we feel good. On the dealer inventory levels, as Eric alluded to in his comments, we are taking significant reductions in our production working to reduce the dealer inventory units on hand.

同樣，我們在第三季出現了一些峰值。我們預計，當我們進入第四季度時，這將更多地體現在標準化利率上。所以最終，我們感覺很好。我們知道，即使在疲軟的環境下，團隊也正在努力推動零售銷售。我想對定價發表評論，可能有效抵消這一點的是，相對於第三季末的情況，外匯對我們來說是更多的順風。這兩個人有點自我淘汰，但總的來說，我們感覺很好。關於經銷商庫存水平，正如埃里克在評論中提到的那樣，我們正在大幅減少生產，以減少經銷商現有的庫存單位。

As you know, our inventory months is a forward 12 month forward-looking. And so as we do see the market continuing to be weak into 2025, that's reducing the retail sale outlook here for us, thus increasing the months of supply on hand. We are taking significant incremental production cuts around the world year over year. South America again will be the biggest one after back-to-back 50%-plus cuts in Q2 and in Q3. We see South America down again and that's lapping a very strong production cut last year in the fourth quarter just given the very weak industry environment that we're seeing there, but we're also cutting production overall in Europe and in North America.

如您所知，我們的庫存月份是前瞻性的 12 個月。因此，我們確實看到市場在 2025 年繼續疲軟，這降低了我們的零售銷售前景，從而增加了現有供應月數。我們在全球逐年大幅削減產量。在第二季和第三季連續削減 50% 以上之後，南美洲將再次成為最大的地區。我們看到南美產量再次下滑，鑑於我們在那裡看到的非常疲軟的行業環境，去年第四季產量大幅削減，但我們也在歐洲和北美整體削減產量。

So we sort of see that happening in the fourth quarter. We're not ready to give an outlook on what the production schedules will look like for early 2025 for South America or North America yet. We want to get through the fourth quarter, see how the retail traffic is, see how our share plays out, get our overall industry outlook in alignment. But as we sit here today, again, our confidence is that we will likely have to underproduce at least in the early part of 2025 just given what we see the industry and the current dealer inventory is looking like right now.

所以我們看到這種情況會在第四季發生。我們尚未準備好對 2025 年初南美或北美的生產計劃進行展望。我們希望度過第四季度，看看零售流量如何，看看我們的份額如何發揮，使我們的整體行業前景保持一致。但當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們再次相信，鑑於我們對該行業的看法以及目前經銷商庫存的情況，我們至少在 2025 年初可能不得不生產不足。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默。

A little bit of a follow up on that. Just help us understand I mean you talked about some of the moving pieces in Europe around the production, around some dealer things, can you help us understand what pricing looks like in Europe and how to square that circle with some of the market share gains that you've seen and then I'll have a follow up.

對此有一點後續。只是幫助我們理解我的意思是你談到了歐洲圍繞生產、圍繞一些經銷商的一些變化，你能幫助我們了解歐洲的定價是什麼樣的，以及如何使這個圓圈與一些市場份額的增長相匹配嗎？

Yeah. So Kristen, overall, pricing in the quarter for Europe was modestly negative. I would tell you it's a little bit on the volume brands, but even a little bit more in Fendt. If I break that down a little bit further, it's really focused on the transition that we're going through with the Fendt 700 Gen 6 and the Gen 7. You've heard us talk about introducing the new Gen 7 earlier this year. We are still producing the Gen 6. We'll transition through that in 2025 at some point in time. But as you would expect, as we still are offering dealers and farmers the opportunity to choose between a Gen 7 700 a Gen 6, that Gen 6 is coming at a lower price point and year over year, that is factoring into negative price in Europe.

是的。因此，克里斯汀總體而言，本季歐洲的定價適度為負。我會告訴你，這與量產品牌有關，但在芬特 (​​Fendt) 中甚至更多。如果我進一步細分，它實際上集中在我們正在經歷的 Fendt 700 Gen 6 和 Gen 7 的過渡。您已經聽過我們談論今年早些時候推出新的 Gen 7。我們仍在生產第 6 代。我們將在 2025 年的某個時間點進行過渡。但正如您所期望的那樣，由於我們仍然為經銷商和農民提供在 Gen 7 700 和 Gen 6 之間進行選擇的機會，因此 Gen 6 的價格點同比較低，這已考慮到歐洲的負價格。

Again, I think when you look at our overall pricing being down at around 50 basis points year over year, I think it's important to understand the geographic mix. We're still seeing very good pricing here in North America. That has continued for the year, and we expect that to continue. South America, we've been forecasting negative price now for a year. That's continuing to materialize. I would tell it's sort of in the low single digits this year as that market has continued to be weak. And then Europe is a little bit negative, as I said on my comments. And again, a lot of that has to do with this a larger volume product in the Fendt 700 Gen 6, translating into the negative year over year price there in Europe.

再說一次，我認為當你看到我們的整體定價比去年同期下降約 50 個基點時，我認為了解地理組合很重要。我們在北美仍然看到非常好的定價。今年這種情況一直持續，我們預計這種情況會持續下去。南美洲，一年來我們一直預測負價格。這正在繼續實現。我想說，今年的數字是低個位數，因為市場持續疲軟。正如我在評論中所說，歐洲有點消極。同樣，這很大程度上與 Fendt 700 Gen 6 中的大批量產品有關，這導致歐洲的同比價格為負。

And then just generally speaking, on the lowered outlook for the full year, if I back out grain and protein fourth quarter of last year, that represents, let's call it the half of the $500 million delta in the top line. Can you help us understand what that does for the bottom line? How much of a benefit is that to your year over year margin in the fourth quarter? Just a little bit more on the moving pieces of grain and protein in the revised guidance.

然後一般來說，在全年前景下調的情況下，如果我取消去年第四季的穀物和蛋白質，那就代表，我們將其稱為營收 5 億美元增量的一半。您能幫助我們了解這對利潤有何影響嗎？這對第四季的年比利潤率有多大好處？修訂後的指南中僅對穀物和蛋白質的移動部分進行了更多介紹。

Yeah. So I think you're -- on the revenue outlook, Kristen, you're right. I would tell you what we saw in the third quarter, the miss in grain and protein and where we sit here in the fourth quarter, that's about $200 million; about $150 million of that, I would say directionally was -- would be in the fourth quarter specifically. So that's the revenue. Operating margin wise right now as we sit here at is 9%. With the sale happening, November 1, I'll tell you, it really has a de minimis effect on the operating margin. EPS wise, it's about $0.1 of our guide down in the EPS is related to the elimination of the grain and protein business here for the balance of the year.

是的。所以我認為你對收入前景的看法是，克里斯汀，你是對的。我會告訴你我們在第三季度看到的情況，穀物和蛋白質的缺失，以及我們在第四季度的處境，大約是 2 億美元；我想說，其中大約 1.5 億美元將具體用於第四季。這就是收入。目前我們的營業利益率為 9%。隨著 11 月 1 日出售的發生，我會告訴你，它確實對營業利潤率產生了微乎其微的影響。就每股收益而言，我們的每股盈餘指引下降了約 0.1 美元，這與今年剩餘時間取消穀物和蛋白質業務有關。

Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

史蒂芬‧福克曼，傑弗里斯。

So can we just start off with Trimble, Eric? And you mentioned that things were sort of weaker, I guess as the channels sort of change there? It was a little weaker than I expected. What's your outlook there? I mean could Trimble be up next year, sort of irrespective of end markets as that channel shift sort of changes.

那我們可以從 Trimble 開始嗎，Eric？你提到事情有點弱，我猜是因為那裡的管道改變了？比我預想的要弱一些。你在那裡的前景如何？我的意思是，無論終端市場如何，Trimble 明年是否會上漲，因為通路轉移會改變。

Yes. So it's an interesting situation. And that the activities that we're monitoring are -- many of them are on track and that we're signed up over 200 new dealers. We've converted our -- transformed how we're sourcing product or sourcing receivers on our own machines. We used to have two suppliers majority of which was another supplier, not Trimble. We've converted that over to predominantly Trimble now.

是的。這是一個有趣的情況。我們正在監控的活動，其中許多都已步入正​​軌，並且我們已經與 200 多個新經銷商簽約。我們已經改變了我們在自己的機器上採購產品或採購接收器的方式。我們曾經有兩家供應商，其中大部分是另一家供應商，而不是 Trimble。我們現在已將其主要轉換為 Trimble。

So those types of things are happening and on track, maybe even a little bit ahead of schedule. This big air pocket that we've talked about of -- the last time buy from one of the top customer from Trimble is still feeding the market. So our -- even though we signed up, all those dealers, they're really not ordering that much yet. We expect that to work its way through by the end of this year and that's still on track with what we said last time. And then we can start seeing the activity come through from these dealers that we've signed up.

因此，這些類型的事情正在發生並且步入正軌，甚至可能比計劃提前了一點。我們上次從 Trimble 的一位頂級客戶那裡購買的這個大氣泡仍然在為市場提供支援。所以我們的——即使我們簽約了，所有這些經銷商，他們實際上還沒有訂購那麼多。我們預計這將在今年年底前完成，並且仍然符合我們上次所說的情況。然後我們可以開始看到我們簽約的這些經銷商的活動。

We'll next year be higher than this year. It's -- we're still working through our expectations for next year. The things we're putting in place, we feel good about. It depends on what the market does. The broad egg indices are at their low points. You look at Purdue was at its low point and now, it bounced back today. It came up a little bit. Well, that's just one data point. Will that be a trend? I don't know yet. The SIMA index in Europe is at its all-time low point. So it's we're certainly close to sentiment being at the very bottom. Now that's not meaning the market is at its very bottom, but that's usually a good indicator of what the next few months look like.

明年我們會比今年更高。我們仍在努力實現明年的預期。我們正在實施的事情讓我們感覺良好。這取決於市場的表現。雞蛋綜合指數處於低點。你看普渡大學當時正處於低點，現在它今天反彈了。它出現了一點點。嗯，這只是一個數據點。這會成為一種趨勢嗎？我還不知道。歐洲的SIMA指數正處於歷史最低點。因此，我們的情緒肯定已經接近谷底。現在，這並不意味著市場已觸底，但這通常是未來幾個月的良好指標。

So we're trying to sort out where is that inflection point and what will happen in '25, we're not speaking to that in big specifics yet, but what we're trying to focus on is what we're -- what's in our control driving those things in the channel and with the product to make sure that we're ready when the market's there.

因此，我們正在努力弄清楚拐點在哪裡以及 25 年會發生什麼，我們還沒有詳細討論這一點，但我們想要關注的是我們正在做什麼——什麼是在我們的控制下推動渠道和產品中的這些事情，以確保我們在市場出現時做好準備。

And Steve, the one comment I would add, and you probably are familiar with, CNH, the OE business, we know that that is coming down this year. We've talked about them moving away from the Trimble business. That's transitioning out in 2024, that's continuing. So that'll be a year over year headwind. If you remember at the time of the acquisition, we announced that we would be moving -- as Eric alluded to, moving Trimble as our base offering in our receipt as in our OE production, that will help mitigate some of that. But when I give you the reported sales, remember the CNH sales today is reported in that number, but if I'm transitioning that into an AGCO product, it may not -- it won't report as an external sale of the center company and so similar to precision planting where you'll hear us give one number, we'll try to overlay sort of what's in our company for this technology. Again, we see part of that being mitigated, but just in absolute terms, that will be a headwind on reported numbers year over year.

Steve，我要補充的一則評論，你可能很熟悉 CNH，OE 業務，我們知道今年這種情況將會下降。我們已經討論過他們離開 Trimble 業務。這種情況將於 2024 年轉變，並且仍在繼續。因此，這將是一年比一年的逆風。如果您還記得收購時，我們宣布我們將採取行動- 正如Eric 所提到的，將Trimble 作為我們的收據中的基礎產品和我們的OE 生產中的基礎產品，這將有助於緩解其中的一些問題。但是，當我向您提供報告的銷售額時，請記住今天的離岸人民幣銷售額以該數字報告，但如果我將其轉換為AGCO 產品，則可能不會- 它不會報告為中心公司的外部銷售與精準種植類似，您會聽到我們給出一個數字，我們將嘗試涵蓋我們公司的這項技術。同樣，我們看到部分情況有所緩解，但僅從絕對值來看，這將是逐年報告數字的阻力。

And then as a follow up, you've been having sort of a semi-public debate with your largest shareholder and some changes in that relationship, I think, relative to production and so forth. Is that taking significant amount of your time and any sort of update you can give from your perspective?

然後，作為後續行動，您一直在與最大股東進行半公開辯論，我認為這種關係發生了一些變化，涉及生產等。這是否佔用了您大量的時間以及您可以從您的角度提供的任何更新嗎？

Yeah. Just as a reminder, this is 1% of our sales and it's really only for a few markets. So the rest of the organization is focused on the core of our business and is marching forward, trying to serve farmers and deliver on our farmer first strategy. There's a few of us that are trying to manage this in a professional way, and I think it's been handled that way well. We're looking for a smooth settlement to this overall situation. We put on the table some we think very generous offers to get it to resolve smoothly. The ball is really in TAFE's court now. But no, it's a small impact on the business. We're trying to keep it focused that way and the organization is really focused on delivering precision ag solutions to productive -- production farmers all around the world.

是的。提醒一下，這占我們銷售額的 1%，而且實際上只針對少數市場。因此，該組織的其他成員專注於我們業務的核心並不斷前進，努力為農民服務並實現我們的農民優先策略。我們中的一些人正在嘗試以專業的方式來管理這個問題，我認為這種方式處理得很好。我們正在尋求對這一總體局勢的順利解決。我們提出了一些我們認為非常慷慨的提議，以使其順利解決。現在球真正掌握在 TAFE 手中了。但不，這對業務影響很小。我們正在努力保持這種專注，該組織真正專注於為世界各地的生產農民提供精準的農業解決方案。

And we're going to have -- and we've got plenty of activity underway to replace that, those tractor sales as well. So we feel fine about that. The channel is served today. We've got inventory in the channel for those products. So dealers are served today. We've got backfill options that we're working, and we have confidence in those. We've got open lines of communications with TAFE, offered a few very reasonable deals and generous deals. We're just hoping that they'll take those, and we can resolve this.

我們將會有大量的活動正在進行，以取代那些拖拉機的銷售。所以我們對此感覺很好。該頻道今天已開通。我們在這些產品的通路中有庫存。所以今天為經銷商提供服務。我們有正在研究的回填選項，並且我們對此充滿信心。我們與 TAFE 建立了開放的溝通管道，提供了一些非常合理的優惠和慷慨的優惠。我們只是希望他們能接受這些，我們就能解決這個問題。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)，BMO 資本市場。

I wanted to follow up on Europe a bit more. You did address some of this already a few minutes ago on a prior question but like I'm trying to look through into early '25 which you've given just a little bit of outlook on that. Trying to figure out how transient that step down in margins are in Europe in Q3. Again, you gave some color, but should we expect kind of a ramp back over a couple quarters on margin in Europe or should we expect first half margins in Europe '25 to be a lot less than we saw first half of '24 because it does mean a lot for you guys?

我想進一步跟進歐洲的情況。幾分鐘前，您確實在之前的一個問題上解決了其中的一些問題，但就像我正在嘗試回顧 25 年初，您對此僅給出了一些展望。試圖弄清楚第三季歐洲利潤率下降的短暫程度。再次，你給了一些顏色，但我們是否應該預期歐洲的利潤率會在幾個季度內回升，或者我們是否應該預期歐洲25 年上半年的利潤率會比我們在24 年上半年看到的少很多，因為它對你們來說意義重大嗎？

Well, Joe, I think it's a little bit too early for us to -- we're not going to get into the outlook for 2025 yet. But I think if you step back at the more macro level, Europe from an industry standpoint tends to be the least volatile of all of the three major regions that we sell in. That continues to lend itself to better stability in our order patterns. You don't see the as much variability like you do in North America, South America. We know year over year, we're -- we've seen the SIMA index which as Eric alluded to the Purdue barometer here. The SIMA index is at a historic low point right now. When you look at that index, it usually doesn't stay at that point for a long time. It usually hits there and then starts to recover.

好吧，喬，我認為現在對我們來說還為時過早——我們還不打算展望 2025 年。但我認為，如果你退一步看更宏觀的層面，從產業的角度來看，歐洲往往是我們銷售的三個主要地區中波動性最小的。這繼續有助於我們的訂單模式更加穩定。你不會看到像北美、南美那麼多的變化。我們知道，年復一年，我們已經看到了 SIMA 指數，正如 Eric 在這裡提到的普渡晴雨表。SIMA指數目前處於歷史低點。當你查看該指數時，它通常不會長時間停留在該點。它通常會擊中那裡，然後開始恢復。

We're not ready to call industry bottom yet. But again, when we look at some of the indicators in the marketplace, we feel like we're hitting near the bottom from a sentiment standpoint. Our big challenge next year as we think about 2025 is going to be the overall industry. How does that play out on pricing and then what do we do to make sure that we're adjusting the dealer inventories to get back to that four months. Again, we said we are up about 0.5 month here from the third -- from the second quarter to the third quarter. Again, fairly manageable for us to work that down, especially with the fourth quarter being a strong sales month for us.

我們還沒有準備好稱之為行業底部。但同樣，當我們查看市場上的一些指標時，我們感覺從情緒的角度來看，我們正接近底部。展望 2025 年，我們明年面臨的重大挑戰將是整個產業。這對定價有何影響，然後我們如何確保我們調整經銷商庫存以回到這四個月的水平。我們再次表示，從第二季度到第三季度，我們比第三季度增長了約 0.5 個月。同樣，我們可以很好地控制這一點，特別是第四季度對我們來說是一個強勁的銷售月份。

With farmer sentiment, it is a big point and that will influence the other things. And so I mentioned that in one of the prior questions, we do have a couple of products that we're transitioning out here with the Fendt 700 Gen 6, that will move down, which will hopefully year over year improve the pricing. But again, the market will really dictate sort of how 2025 shapes out in Europe for us.

對於農民情緒來說，這是一個大問題，會影響其他事情。因此，我在之前的一個問題中提到，我們確實有一些產品正在與 Fendt 700 Gen 6 一起過渡，這些產品將會下降，希望能夠逐年提高定價。但同樣，市場將真正決定 2025 年歐洲的發展。

But Joe, we do expect our fourth quarter margins in Europe to bounce back similar to what they look like in the first half of the year.

但喬，我們確實預計我們在歐洲第四季的利潤率將會反彈，與上半年的情況類似。

And just another question, trying to compare slide 4 -- slide 4 and 11 from today's deck. So slide 11, you've maintained what it was a few months ago, you maintained all of your market outlook for tractors across the three regions that you show to maintain that. But on slide 4, especially for tractors, the nine-month performance year to date, contraction for tractors in North America and in Europe are worse versus the six-month performance. South America I think is a bit better. But can you explain that a bit or reconcile that a bit, how you've been able to keep the full year outlook the same? But there's contractions gotten worse and then you thought, well, contraction trends are worse through nine months versus six months.

還有一個問題，試著比較今天簡報中的投影片 4——投影片 4 和投影片 11。因此，投影片 11 保持了幾個月前的狀態，保持了您所展示的三個地區拖拉機的所有市場前景。但在幻燈片 4 上，尤其是拖拉機，今年迄今的九個月表現，北美和歐洲拖拉機的收縮比六個月表現更糟糕。我覺得南美洲好一點。但您能否解釋一下或協調這一點，您是如何能夠保持全年前景不變的？但宮縮變得更嚴重，然後你會想，嗯，九個月的宮縮趨勢比六個月更嚴重。

So Joe, we're -- essentially, we've moved to kind of the top end of the range in terms of the markets going down year over year. There's a little bit of a disconnect in South America and that our outlook is on wholesale as opposed to retail because that's where we have more visibility on and in terms of industry being reported. So South America looks a little bit different just because we're looking at wholesale versus retail.

所以喬，從本質上講，我們已經進入了市場逐年下滑的高端範圍。南美洲存在一些脫節，我們的前景是批發而不是零售，因為在那裡我們對所報告的行業有更多的了解。因此，南美洲看起來有點不同，因為我們關注的是批發和零售。

Mir Dobre, R.W. Baird.

米爾·多布雷，R.W.貝爾德。

So I'm trying to sort of put the pieces together here on dealer inventories and demand. I mean if I heard you correctly, dealer inventories declined 6% sequentially there in terms of units in Q3. But then you're also talking about having on average about an extra month of dealer inventory based on how you're thinking about for demand. Given the fact that you haven't really changed your outlook for demand for 2024, are we sort of to infer here that what's baked in here is maybe like a kind of a mid-teens decline in 2025? Is my math correct? And if so, can you give us some color by geography in terms of where we're -- you're experiencing more weakness, how we should be thinking roughly about '25?

因此，我試圖將經銷商庫存和需求的各個部分放在一起。我的意思是，如果我沒聽錯的話，第三季經銷商庫存數量較上季下降了 6%。但是，根據您對需求的考慮，您還談論平均大約有一個月的額外經銷商庫存。鑑於您尚未真正改變對 2024 年需求的展望，我們是否可以在此推斷 2025 年的需求可能會出現十幾歲左右的下降？我的數學正確嗎？如果是這樣，你能給我們一些地理方面的資訊嗎？

Yeah. So, Mir, so we -- again, we're not going to give an outlook for 2025 just yet. We want to get through the fourth quarter, see how the retail demand plays out, work through our analytics for the full year here. But I think what we are alluding to, and Eric has said this in a couple of prior calls, when you look at our historical industry changes, we usually go through one very large transitional year. And that's what we're going through this year. We're moving down directionally around 15% from where we were last year to where we are this year. And then historically, the industry floats in that general vicinity.

是的。所以，Mir，所以我們——再說一次，我們暫時不會給出 2025 年的展望。我們希望度過第四季度，了解零售需求的表現，並在此進行全年的分析。但我認為我們所暗示的，埃里克在之前的幾次電話會議中說過，當你看看我們歷史上的行業變化時，我們通常會經歷一個非常大的過渡年。這就是我們今年正在經歷的事情。與去年相比，今年我們的水平定向下降了 15% 左右。從歷史上看，該行業漂浮在這個大範圍附近。

As we look at where we're sitting here today, we are expecting the market to be down next year. Again, we're not expecting large declines. Again, the industry historically doesn't do that, but we are expecting to see some weakness again next year, probably in most parts of the world. If I look at where the biggest challenges have been, South America continues to be the one that we're seeing the most industry challenged right now. And I think there's a couple of pieces here. You see us cutting the production again for four quarters now. From Q4 last year through the third quarter of this year, we've been cutting production anywhere from 30% to 50%.

當我們看看今天的情況時，我們預計明年市場將會下跌。同樣，我們預計不會大幅下降。同樣，該行業歷史上並沒有這樣做，但我們預計明年會再次出現一些疲軟，可能是在世界大部分地區。如果我看看最大的挑戰在哪裡，南美洲仍然是我們目前看到的產業面臨最大挑戰的地區。我認為這裡有幾個部分。你看到我們現在再次削減了四個季度的產量。從去年第四季到今年第三季度，我們的產量一直在削減 30% 到 50%。

We're planning another large production cut here in the fourth quarter of this year. Really trying to take the production down. I think it's important that when you see these numbers even in South America, it's a little bit of the two parts to the story there. When you look at the numbers being down in South America, the high horsepower segment of the market in the third quarter was down significantly more than the overall industry and that there is the negative mix happening right now and at the very low horsepower, say the 79 horsepower and below was actually up in the third quarter. And so when you're looking at that mix, you're seeing the overall units don't look as bad. But for where AGCO is really focused, where we're making the profit, that part of the market was down significantly in the quarter and mitigated by some of these lower horsepower segments that were actually up.

我們計劃在今年第四季再次大幅減產。確實想降低產量。我認為重要的是，當你在南美洲看到這些數字時，你會發現那裡的故事有兩個部分。當你看到南美洲的數字下降時，第三季度市場的高馬力部分的下降幅度明顯超過整個行業，而且目前在非常低的馬力上出現了負面的混合情況，說79馬力及以下的車型第三季度實際上有所上升。因此，當您查看該組合時，您會發現整體單位看起來並沒有那麼糟糕。但對於愛科真正關注的領域，即我們正在賺取利潤的領域，這部分市場在本季度大幅下降，但由於一些低馬力細分市場的實際增長而有所緩解。

So South America definitely continues to be a big challenge for us because we know this is the biggest most volatile market we deal with. It always has been and likely always will be. North America I would then say is second. We're seeing the large ag segment of the market really be challenged right now. And so we're cutting the production there. And we're seeing sort of the dealer inventory levels continue to creep up, not based on units, units are down, but we're seeing it just based on the forward look. So again, we would expect probably in the early part of the year, again, more challenges for our production and to deal with some of that North American market share as well or North American dealer inventory as well. And then Europe, I would say on the back end of that is going to be more product specific or country specific issues.

因此，南美洲對我們來說肯定仍然是一個巨大的挑戰，因為我們知道這是我們所面對的最大、最不穩定的市場。過去一直如此，而且很可能永遠如此。我想說北美是第二位。我們看到市場上的大型農業領域現在確實面臨挑戰。所以我們正在削減那裡的生產。我們看到經銷商庫存水準持續上升，不是基於數量，而是數量下降，但我們看到它只是基於前瞻性。因此，我們再次預計，在今年年初，我們的生產可能會面臨更多挑戰，並需要處理部分北美市場份額或北美經銷商庫存。然後是歐洲，我想說，這將是更多特定產品或特定國家的問題。

To follow up on that --

跟進此事--

Maybe just to -- I'll just build on a little bit --

也許只是為了──我會在此基礎上再接再厲--

Sorry. Go ahead.

對不起。前進。

And then take your follow up. To put some numbers behind this, our last cycle in terms of AGCO's sales mix around the world, we had -- we went from a peak of $115 million down to a trough of $85 million At the peak, we were not supply constrained nor was the industry. This time, our peak only got up to $109 million because everybody was supply constrained during COVID. So we believe then that the trough won't be as deep potentially nor as long potentially as the last trough was. As I said, the last trough was $85 million. In 2024, we've gone from about $105 million down to about $90 million. It's the big correction here that Damon talked about. So you compare that $90 million to the previous trough that we think is probably as deep as it would get, which was $85 million that kind of size is what we're trying to assess of what '25 looks like. We expect it to float near somewhere between 2024's results and the previous trough and we'll clarify that in more detail in December, but at least that gives you some bookends to frame it.

然後進行跟進。用一些數字來說明這一點，就愛科在全球的銷售組合而言，我們的上一個週期是——我們從1.15 億美元的峰值下降到8500 萬美元的低谷。供應限制，也沒有受到供應限制。這次，我們的高峰僅達到 1.09 億美元，因為在新冠疫情期間每個人的供應都受到限制。因此，我們認為，這個低谷的深度可能不會像上一個低谷那麼深，也不會那麼長。正如我所說，上一個低潮是 8500 萬美元。到 2024 年，我們的支出將從約 1.05 億美元減少到約 9,000 萬美元。這是達蒙談到的重大修正。因此，你可以將這 9000 萬美元與之前的低谷進行比較，我們認為之前的低谷可能是最深的，即 8500 萬美元，這樣的規模正是我們試圖評估 25 年的樣子。我們預計它會浮動在 2024 年的結果和之前的低谷之間的某個位置附近，我們將在 12 月更詳細地澄清這一點，但至少這會給你一些書擋來框架它。

My follow up is on your production slide, slide 5, and the guidance there, I mean considering the fact that you're dealing with excess inventory still, I'm wondering when we're not seeing more pressure on production in the fourth quarter. I mean you're cutting production 25%. I understand that year over year, but it certainly looks stable if not up a little bit sequentially. And I'm wondering why we're not seeing more of this action being taken in the fourth quarter rather than 2025.

我的後續工作是關於您的生產幻燈片、幻燈片5 以及那裡的指導，我的意思是考慮到您仍在處理庫存過剩的事實，我想知道我們什麼時候不會看到第四季度的生產壓力更大。我的意思是你要削減 25% 的產量。我明白這一點年復一年，但如果不是連續上升一點點的話，它看起來肯定是穩定的。我想知道為什麼我們沒有看到更多的此類行動在第四季度而不是 2025 年採取。

Yeah. So Mir, what I'd tell you we are being extremely aggressive in many different parts of the market and many of the different product types. Again, when you look at our production hours, that includes more than just tractors, it would include combines sprayers, planters. So we're significantly reducing production in many aspects. I think what you're seeing in that visual there is mainly Europe. As I mentioned, Europe, we extended the shutdowns in the third quarter to really sort of be better optimizing the cost structure. And then we're picking up a little bit here in the fourth quarter. And again, when you think about what we're seeing is there is still retail demand out there. And if you look at the dealer inventories, you know what's on the dealer's lot may not always be exactly what the farmers are looking at coming to order.

是的。所以 Mir，我要告訴你的是，我們在市場的許多不同部分和許多不同的產品類型中都非常積極。再說一次，當你看看我們的生產時間時，你會發現這不僅包括拖拉機，還包括聯合收割機、噴霧機、播種機。所以我們在很多方面都大幅減少了產量。我認為你在視覺效果中看到的主要是歐洲。正如我所提到的，在歐洲，我們延長了第三季的停工時間，以真正更好地優化成本結構。然後我們在第四季有所回升。再說一遍，當你想到我們所看到的情況時，零售需求仍然存在。如果您查看經銷商的庫存，您就會知道經銷商手中的產品可能不會總是農民想要訂購的產品。

And again, go back to my comment on South America where the high horsepower ag market is really challenged right now. That's sitting on the dealers' lots. But these lower horsepower segments are doing actually pretty well in South America. So we have orders and demand for those products. We're running the production to service that need. And again, similar in North America or in Europe, there may be product lines or retail demand that we're working to produce. We're not producing to put more onto the dealer lot. When we think about what we're producing, it's really more of a pass through to the end farmer where we see the demand. So again, I realize that the numbers look different. But when you factor in what's happening in Europe sequentially or year over year versus what's happening in other parts like South America, we are rapidly reducing the production hours on -- in most of our factories.

再次回到我對南美洲的評論，那裡的高馬力農業市場目前確實面臨挑戰。那是在經銷商的地盤上。但這些低馬力細分市場在南美洲其實表現相當不錯。所以我們有這些產品的訂單和需求。我們正在運行生產來滿足這一需求。同樣，與北美或歐洲類似，我們可能正在努力生產產品線或零售需求。我們生產的目的並不是為了向經銷商推出更多的產品。當我們思考我們生產的產品時，它實際上更像是傳遞給最終農民，讓我們看到需求。我再次意識到這些數字看起來有所不同。但是，當你將歐洲連續或逐年發生的情況與南美洲等其他地區發生的情況考慮在內時，我們正在迅速減少大多數工廠的生產時間。

Tami Zakaria, JP Morgan.

塔米·扎卡里亞，摩根大通。

So I think I heard you say you expect North America pricing to continue to be strong. Can you help us understand, do you expect any incremental discounting needed to clear the channel? And what's really driving this expectation of pricing growth in North America? Is it mixed or are you raising prices due to cost inflation? Anything to call out there? What underpins this expectation of positive pricing in North America against suboptimal demand backdrop?

所以我想我聽到你說你預計北美定價將繼續強勁。您能否幫助我們了解一下，您是否預計需要任何增量折扣來清理渠道？到底是什麼推動了北美定價成長的預期？是混合的還是因為成本上漲而提高價格？那裡有什麼要喊的嗎？在需求不理想的背景下，是什麼支撐著北美積極定價的預期？

Yeah. Tami, we've had positive pricing in North America for the full year or year to date, I should say. I'd say it's really a couple of variables here. One is the year over year price increases with certain new products that we're getting. And I would say, as we think about the back half of this year, what we're seeing this quarter, the fourth quarter, is really being a lot more selective on discounting, especially in some of the lower horsepower segments of the market, the rural lifestyle. As you know, a lot of these tractors are financed. And so as interest rates are coming down, we're trying to take advantage of that where we can drive better discounting decisions, thus reducing the overall cost to AGCO. And that's helping improve sort of the sequential pricing in North America significantly as we move from Q2 into Q3 and now into Q4 and into 2025. But those are really the couple of big variables that are driving the pricing in North America.

是的。塔米，我應該說，我們在北美全年或今年迄今為止的定價都是積極的。我想說這裡確實有幾個變數。其中之一是我們獲得的某些新產品的價格逐年上漲。我想說，當我們考慮今年下半年時，我們在本季、第四季看到的折扣確實更加有選擇性，特別是在市場的一些較低馬力領域，鄉村生活方式。如您所知，許多拖拉機都是有資金支持的。因此，隨著利率下降，我們試圖利用這一點來推動更好的折現決策，從而降低愛科的整體成本。隨著我們從第二季度進入第三季度，現在進入第四季度，進入 2025 年，這有助於顯著改善北美的連續定價。但這些確實是推動北美定價的幾個大變數。

And my second question is, can you remind what's your plan in terms of deleveraging the balance sheet? And should we expect more debt pay down in the coming quarters? I think you paid down $150 million with the proceeds but any more plans of debt paydown in the next few quarters?

我的第二個問題是，您能否提醒一下您在去槓桿化資產負債表方面有何計劃？我們是否應該預期未來幾季會有更多債務償還？我認為您已經用所得款項償還了 1.5 億美元，但在接下來的幾季內還有更多償還債務的計劃嗎？

Yes. So we did pay down the five -- we had a $500 million term loan in place as part of the funding for the Trimble joint venture. So that has been repaid with some of the proceeds from the grain and protein business. We have about a quarter of $1 billion of debt that will mature I think in March-April time frame. Tami, I think as we sit here today, we would likely just pay that down with the Trim -- with the balance of the Trimble proceeds coupled with some free cash flow. Those will be the two big things and then we'll look to see if there's anything else that may make sense, but that will happen in I think March-April time frame.

是的。因此，我們確實還清了這五筆貸款——我們準備了 5 億美元的定期貸款，作為 Trimble 合資企業資金的一部分。因此，這已經用穀物和蛋白質業務的部分收益來償還。我認為，我們大約有 10 億美元債務的四分之一將在 3 月至 4 月的時間範圍內到期。塔米，我想當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們可能會用 Trim 來支付這筆費用——用 Trimble 收益的餘額加上一些自由現金流。這些將是兩件大事，然後我們將看看是否還有其他可能有意義的事情，但我認為這將在三月至四月的時間範圍內發生。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

傑瑞·雷維奇，高盛。

Hi. This is Clay on for Jerry. Can you update us on your expectations for the plan of business as we move into next year given on your some of the early order conversations you're having?

你好。這是傑瑞的克萊。鑑於您正在進行的一些早期訂單對話，您能否向我們介紹一下您對明年業務計劃的期望？

Yeah. I think overall, early order program is -- given the market environment that we're seeing here in North America, I think the early order program has gone relatively well for planters and for sprayers. I think we're not as strong as we were last year this time, but we're out through the first half of 2024 with orders for planters and sprayers. So if you remember Clay, our early order program sort of rolls from start of Q4 -- Q3 to Q3. So almost a full year booked right now, but not quite on those particular products, but overall pretty good.

是的。我認為總的來說，早期訂購計劃是——考慮到我們在北美看到的市場環境，我認為早期訂購計劃對於播種機和噴霧機來說進展相對順利。我認為這次我們的實力不如去年，但到 2024 年上半年，我們的播種機和噴霧機訂單都會結束。因此，如果您還記得 Clay，我們的早期訂單計劃將從第四季度開始滾動到第三季。所以現在幾乎預訂了一整年，但不是那些特定產品，但總體來說還不錯。

And as a quick follow up on dealer inventories, can you compare levels now on an absolute basis in North America versus the pre-COVID and I'd be curious to hear about other regions as well.

作為對經銷商庫存的快速跟進，您能否將北美現在的絕對水平與新冠疫情之前的水平進行比較，我也很想知道其他地區的情況。

Yeah. Well, if we look at the pre-COVID levels, I guess before the massive decline, ideally, they would have been around in that five-to-six-month range for North America. We're sitting here obviously higher than that, but that's what we keep talking about, reducing the production cuts is to get that dealer inventory right around that six-month mark here as soon as possible in early 2025.

是的。好吧，如果我們看看新冠疫情之前的水平，我想在大幅下降之前，理想情況下，北美的水平應該在五到六個月的範圍內。我們坐在這裡的價格顯然高於這個水平，但這就是我們一直在談論的，減少減產是為了讓經銷商庫存盡快在 2025 年初達到六個月的水平。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein. It looks like Chad's line has disconnected. This will conclude our question and answer session.

查德·迪拉德，伯恩斯坦。查德的電話線好像已經斷線了。我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Eric Hansotia for any closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回 Eric Hansotia 發表閉幕詞。

I'll close today by saying that in the short term, we are focused on reducing inventory and aggressively controlling cost to better align our operations with the current weak market environment. Our 9% operating profit is far above the previous trough. It was closer to 4% and even above the last pre -- peak margin. That was close to 8%. But we're striving to do even better. Our org efficiency and restructuring activities that we've already implemented so far this year will deliver $100 million $125 million of savings right on target that we projected when we took those actions.

今天結束時，我要說的是，短期內，我們的重點是減少庫存並積極控製成本，以便更好地使我們的營運適應當前疲軟的市場環境。我們9%的營業利潤遠高於先前的低谷。它接近 4%，甚至高於最後一個峰值前的利潤率。那接近8%。但我們正在努力做得更好。今年迄今我們已經實施的組織效率和重組活動將節省 1 億美元，1.25 億美元，正好達到我們採取這些行動時所預期的目標。

And despite all the current challenges, we remain focused on continued execution of our farmer first strategy. There are strategic actions we've taken over the last nine months, big ones like forming the PTx Trimble joint venture, divesting our grain and protein business and implementing our organization efficient efforts to take control -- take advantage of tools like automation and AI will enhance and accelerate the benefits of our farmer first strategy. Over the last few quarters, we've touched on many factors supporting our markets including growing populations, changing diets, low stock to use levels, increased demand for biofuels and relatively healthy commodity prices. All these trends give us confidence in the long-term health of our industry.

儘管當前面臨所有挑戰，我們仍然專注於繼續執行我們的農民優先策略。在過去的九個月裡，我們採取了一些策略行動，其中包括組建 PTx Trimble 合資企業、剝離我們的穀物和蛋白質業務以及實施我們的組織有效的努力來控制——利用自動化和人工智慧等工具增強並加速我們農民優先策略的效益。在過去的幾個季度中，我們談到了支持市場的許多因素，包括人口成長、飲食變化、庫存量低、生物燃料需求增加以及相對健康的商品價格。所有這些趨勢讓我們對產業的長期健康發展充滿信心。

And while cycles are typical in the industry, how we react and weather to them will illustrate how we are structurally changing, AGCO could to be higher performing regardless of market conditions. We look forward to seeing you at our upcoming analyst meeting on December 19. Thank you and have a good day.

雖然週期在行業中很常見，但我們如何應對和應對它們將說明我們如何進行結構性變化，無論市場條件如何，愛科都可以取得更高的業績。我們期待在 12 月 19 日舉行的分析師會議上見到您。謝謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you for joining the AGCO third-quarter 2024 earnings call. The call has now concluded. Have a nice day.

感謝您參加愛科 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。通話現已結束。祝你今天過得愉快。