American Financial Group Inc (AFG) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Financial Group 2025 third quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加美國金融集團2025年第三季業績電話會議。（操作說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Diane Weidner, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄影。現在，我謹將會議交給今天的第一位發言人，投資者關係副總裁黛安·韋德納。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to American Financial Group's third quarter 2025 earnings results conference call. We released our results yesterday afternoon. Our press release, investor supplement, and webcast presentation are posted on AFG's website under the Investor Relations section. These materials will be referenced during portions of today's call.

早安，歡迎參加美國金融集團2025年第三季收益業績電話會議。我們昨天下午公佈了結果。我們的新聞稿、投資者補充資料和網路直播簡報已發佈在 AFG 網站的投資者關係版塊下。在今天的電話會議中，我們將部分內容提及這些資料。

I'm joined this morning by Carl Lindner III and Craig Lindner, Co-CEOs of American Financial Group, and Brian Hertzman, AFG's CFO. Before I turn the discussion over to Carl, I would like to draw your attention to the notes on slide 2 of our webcast. Some of the matters to be discussed today are forward-looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results and/or financial condition to differ materially from these statements. A detailed description of these risks and uncertainties can be found in AFG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are also available on our website.

今天早上和我一起接受採訪的有美國金融集團 (AFG) 的聯合首席執行官卡爾·林德納三世和克雷格·林德納，以及 AFG 的首席財務官布萊恩·赫茲曼。在將討論交給卡爾之前，我想提請大家注意我們網路直播第二張投影片上的註解。今天要討論的一些事項具有前瞻性。這些前瞻性陳述涉及某些風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際業績和/或財務狀況與這些陳述有重大差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的詳細描述，請參閱 AFG 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，這些文件也可在我們的網站上查閱。

We may include references to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure, in our remarks or in responses to questions. A reconciliation of net earnings to core net operating earnings is included in our earnings release.

我們可能會在發言或回答問題時提及核心淨營業收益（非GAAP財務指標）。我們的獲利報告中包含了淨收益與核心淨經營收益的調節表。

And finally, if you're reading a transcript of this call, please note that it may not be authorized or reviewed for accuracy, and as a result, it may contain factual or transcription errors that could materially alter the intent or meaning of our statements.

最後，如果您正在閱讀本次通話的文字記錄，請注意，該記錄可能未經授權或審核以確保其準確性，因此可能包含事實或轉錄錯誤，這些錯誤可能會實質地改變我們聲明的意圖或含義。

Now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Carl Lindner III to discuss our results.

現在我很高興將電話交給卡爾林德納三世，讓他來討論我們的研究結果。

Good morning. I'll begin by sharing a few highlights of AFG's 2025 third quarter results, after which Craig and I will walk through more details. We'll then open it up for Q&A, where Craig, Brian, and I will be happy to respond to your questions.

早安.首先，我將分享 AFG 2025 年第三季業績的一些亮點，之後 Craig 和我將詳細介紹更多細節。接下來我們將進入問答環節，克雷格、布萊恩和我將很樂意回答大家的問題。

We're pleased to report an annualized core operating return on equity of 19% for the third quarter. Our underwriting margins in our Specialty Property and Casualty insurance businesses were strong. Net investment income increased by 5% year over year, despite muted returns from our alternative investment portfolio when compared to the long-term historical performance of those investments.

我們很高興地宣布，第三季年化核心營運股本回報率為 19%。我們在專業財產和意外保險業務中的承保利潤率表現強勁。儘管與這些投資的長期歷史表現相比，我們的另類投資組合的回報較為平淡，但淨投資收益仍同比增長了 5%。

Our compelling mix of specialty insurance businesses, entrepreneurial culture, disciplined operating philosophy, and an astute team of in-house investment professionals continue to position us well for the future and enable us to continue to create value for our shareholders. Craig and I thank God, our talented management team, and our great employees for helping us to achieve these results.

我們強大的專業保險業務組合、創業文化、嚴謹的經營理念以及一支精明的內部投資專業團隊，使我們能夠繼續為未來做好充分準備，並繼續為股東創造價值。Craig 和我感謝上帝、我們才華橫溢的管理團隊以及我們優秀的員工，感謝他們幫助我們取得了這些成果。

I'll now turn the discussion over to Craig to walk us through some of the details.

現在我將把討論交給克雷格，讓他為我們詳細介紹一下。

Thank you, Carl.

謝謝你，卡爾。

Please turn to slides 3 and 4 for third quarter highlights.

請翻到投影片 3 和 4，以了解第三季的重點內容。

AFG reported core net operating earnings of $2.69 per share, compared to $2.31 per share in the prior year period, a 16% increase.

AFG公佈的核心淨營業利潤為每股2.69美元，而去年同期為每股2.31美元，成長了16%。

I'll begin with an overview of AFG's investment portfolio, investment performance, and share a few comments about AFG's financial position, capital, and liquidity.

我將首先概述 AFG 的投資組合、投資業績，並就 AFG 的財務狀況、資本和流動性發表一些看法。

The details surrounding our $16.8 billion portfolio are presented on slides 5 and 6. Net investment income in our Property and Casualty insurance operations for the three months ended September 30, 2025, increased 5% year over year as a result of higher interest rates and higher balances of invested assets.

有關我們168億美元投資組合的詳細信息，請參見第5頁和第6頁幻燈片。截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日止三個月，由於利率上升和投資資產餘額增加，我們的財產和意外保險業務的淨投資收益同比增長 5%。

As shown on slide 6, nearly two-thirds of our portfolio is invested in fixed maturities. In the current interest rate environment, we're able to invest in fixed maturity securities at yields of approximately 5.25%. The duration of our P&C fixed maturity portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents was 2.7 years at September 30, 2025. The annualized return on alternative investments in our P&C portfolio was approximately 6.2% for the 2025 third quarter, compared to 5.4% for the prior year quarter.

如投影片 6 所示，我們投資組合中近三分之二的資金投資於固定期限資產。在目前的利率環境下，我們可以投資收益率約為 5.25% 的固定期限證券。截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日，我們的財產及意外險固定到期投資組合（包括現金及現金等價物）的久期為 2.7 年。2025 年第三季度，我們財產險投資組合中另類投資的年化報酬率約為 6.2%，而去年同期為 5.4%。

Although the overall return on our multi-family investments continued to be tempered by challenges within the broader economic environment, we're seeing evidence of recovery. Strong occupancy, a return to historical levels of lease renewals, and more stability in the overall rental rate environment contribute to improving conditions, despite a prolonged softer market caused by excess supply of new properties in several of our targeted regions.

儘管受整體經濟環境挑戰的影響，我們的多戶住宅投資的整體回報仍然受到抑制，但我們已經看到了復甦的跡象。儘管在我們幾個目標區域內，由於新房供應過剩導致市場長期疲軟，但強勁的入住率、租約續約率恢復到歷史水平以及整體租金環境的更加穩定，都有助於改善市場狀況。

Importantly, a large portion of our portfolio of multi-family properties is located in desirable geographies with strong job and wage growth. Although the supply of properties in these locations is elevated as compared to historical levels, new starts have declined significantly and at a faster pace than in other regions. We believe that tightening supply and a significantly reduced development pipeline will drive higher rental and occupancy rates and improved results by the end of 2026.

重要的是，我們投資組合中的很大一部分多戶住宅物業位於就業和薪資成長強勁的理想地區。儘管這些地區的房產供應量高於歷史水平，但新開工量卻大幅下降，而且下降速度比其他地區更快。我們相信，供應收緊和開發項目大幅減少將推動租金和入住率上升，並在 2026 年底前取得更好的業績。

Longer term, we continue to be optimistic regarding the prospects of attractive returns from our overall alternative investment portfolio, with an expectation of annual returns averaging 10% or better.

從長遠來看，我們仍然對整體另類投資組合的良好回報前景持樂觀態度，預計年均回報率將達到 10% 或更高。

Please turn to slide 7, where you'll find a summary of AFG's financial position at September 30, 2025.

請翻到第 7 頁，您將在那裡找到 AFG 截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日的財務狀況摘要。

During the third quarter, we returned $66 million to our shareholders through the payment of our regular quarterly dividend. In October, AFG's regular quarterly dividend was increased 10% over the previously declared rate to $0.88 per share and paid on October 24, 2025.

第三季度，我們透過支付季度股利的方式，向股東返還了 6,600 萬美元。10 月份，AFG 的季度常規股息比先前宣布的水平提高了 10%，達到每股 0.88 美元，並於 2025 年 10 月 24 日支付。

In conjunction with our earnings release, we declared a special dividend of $2.00 per share, payable on November 26, 2025, to shareholders of record on November 17, 2025. The aggregate amount of the special dividend will be approximately $167 million. With this special dividend, the company has declared $54.00 per share, or $4.6 billion, in special dividends since the beginning of 2021.

配合我們的獲利報告，我們宣布派發每股 2.00 美元的特別股息，將於 2025 年 11 月 26 日支付給 2025 年 11 月 17 日登記在冊的股東。特別股息總額約 1.67 億美元。加上此次特別股息，該公司自 2021 年初以來已宣布每股派發 54.00 美元的特別股息，總計 46 億美元。

Carl and I consider these special dividends to be an important component of total shareholder return. We expect our operations to continue to generate significant excess capital throughout the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, which provides ample opportunity for acquisitions, special dividends, or share repurchases over the next year. We evaluate the best alternatives for capital deployment on a regular basis. We continue to view total value creation, as measured by growth in book value plus dividends as an important measure of performance over the longer term. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, AFG's growth in book value per share excluding AOCI plus dividends was nearly 11%.

卡爾和我認為這些特別股利是股東總報酬的重要組成部分。我們預計，在 2025 年剩餘時間和 2026 年，我們的營運將繼續產生大量剩餘資本，這將為未來一年的收購、特別股息或股票回購提供充足的機會。我們會定期評估最佳的資金部署方案。我們仍認為，以帳面價值成長加上股利來衡量的總價值創造，是衡量長期績效的重要指標。截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日的九個月內，AFG 每股帳面價值（不包括 AOCI 和股息）成長近 11%。

I will now turn the call over to Carl to discuss the results of our P&C operations.

現在我將把電話交給卡爾，讓他來討論我們財產和意外保險業務的表現。

Thank you, Craig.

謝謝你，克雷格。

Please turn to slides 8 and 9 of the webcast, which include an overview of our third quarter results. Our commitment to underwriting discipline and prudent growth was evident in the solid performance of our Property and Casualty businesses in the third quarter. We're finding attractive opportunities to grow our Specialty Property and Casualty businesses despite walking away from challenging market conditions in a few markets or poorly performing accounts.

請翻到網路直播的第 8 張和第 9 張投影片，其中包含我們第三季業績的概述。第三季度，我們的財產和意外保險業務表現穩健，這充分體現了我們對承保紀律和審慎成長的承諾。儘管我們放棄了一些市場充滿挑戰的市場環境或業績不佳的客戶，但我們仍然發現了發展特殊財產和意外保險業務的有吸引力的機會。

I'm pleased with the overall underwriting profitability in our Specialty Property and Casualty businesses in the third quarter of this year, and we remain confident about the strength of our reserves. A continued favorable pricing environment, increased exposures, and new business opportunities enabled us to selectively grow our Specialty Property and Casualty businesses, although the timing of reporting of crop acreage by our insureds shifted some crop premium from the third quarter to the second quarter, as we discussed on last quarter's call. This tempered premium growth in the third quarter. We continue to expect premium growth for the full year in 2025 in the low-single digits. In addition to organic growth opportunities and evaluating acquisitions, we always try to maintain a pipeline of start-ups that have the potential to become new business units in our portfolio of specialty businesses. Taking an early look at next year, we currently project 2026 premium growth to rebound as we're optimistic about the growth from these start-ups and the near completion of numerous underwriting actions taken in our Specialty Casualty businesses.

我對我們今年第三季專業財產和意外傷害保險業務的整體承保盈利能力感到滿意，並且我們對我們的儲備實力仍然充滿信心。持續有利的定價環境、不斷增加的風險敞口和新的業務機會使我們能夠有選擇地發展我們的專業財產和意外傷害業務，儘管正如我們在上個季度的電話會議上所討論的那樣，由於我們的投保人報告作物種植面積的時間，一些作物保費從第三季度轉移到了第二季度。這抑制了第三季的溢價成長。我們繼續預期 2025 年全年保費成長將維持在個位數低點。除了有機成長機會和評估收購之外，我們始終努力保持一批有潛力成為我們專業業務組合中新業務部門的新創公司。展望明年，我們目前預計 2026 年保費成長將出現反彈，因為我們對這些新創企業的成長以及我們在專業意外險業務中採取的眾多承保措施即將完成持樂觀態度。

Turning to slide 8, you'll see that underwriting profit in our Specialty Property and Casualty insurance businesses grew 19% and generated a 93.0% combined ratio in the third quarter of 2025, an improvement of 1.3 points from the prior year period. Results for the 2025 third quarter include 1.2 points related to catastrophe losses compared to 4.4 points in last year's third quarter. Third quarter 2025 results benefited from 1.2 points of favorable prior year reserve development, compared to 0.8 points in the third quarter of 2024. Third quarter gross and net written premiums were down 2% and 4%, respectively, when compared to the third quarter of last year. Excluding our crop business, gross written premiums grew 3% and net written premiums were flat year-over-year. Average renewal pricing across our Property and Casualty group was up approximately 5% in the third quarter, both including and excluding workers' comp. We've reported overall renewal rate increases for 37 consecutive quarters and we believe we are achieving overall renewal rate increases in excess of prospective loss ratio trends to meet or exceed our targeted returns.

翻到第 8 張投影片，您會看到，2025 年第三季度，我們專業財產和意外保險業務的承保利潤成長了 19%，綜合比率達到 93.0%，比去年同期改善了 1.3 個百分點。2025 年第三季業績中，與災害損失相關的指標為 1.2 個百分點，而去年第三季為 4.4 個百分點。2025 年第三季的業績受惠於去年同期有利的儲備發展 1.2 個百分點，而 2024 年第三季則受惠於 0.8 個百分點。與去年第三季相比，第三季毛保費和淨保費分別下降了 2% 和 4%。剔除農作物業務後，毛保費收入成長了 3%，淨保費收入與前一年持平。第三季度，我們財產和意外保險集團的平均續保價格上漲了約 5%，無論是否包含工傷賠償。我們已經連續 37 個季度實現了整體續保率的成長，我們相信，我們實現的整體續保率成長將超過預期的損失率趨勢，從而達到或超過我們的目標回報。

Now I'd like to turn to slide 9 to review a few highlights from each of our Specialty Property and Casualty business groups. Details are included in our earnings release, so I'll focus on summary results here. The businesses in the Property and Transportation Group achieved a solid 94.1% calendar year combined ratio in the third quarter of 2025, an improvement of 2.7 points from the comparable 2024 period. This group's third quarter 2025 combined ratio included four tenths of a point attributed to catastrophe losses, compared to 3.7 points in the 2024 third quarter, which was the primary driver of the improved year-over-year profitability.

現在我想翻到第 9 張投影片，回顧我們各個專業財產和意外傷害業務集團的一些亮點。詳細資訊已包含在我們的盈利報告中，因此我在這裡只重點介紹結果摘要。2025 年第三季度，房地產和交通運輸集團旗下各業務的日曆年度綜合比率達到穩健的 94.1%，比 2024 年同期改善了 2.7 個百分點。該集團 2025 年第三季的綜合比率中包含 0.4 個百分點歸因於巨災損失，而 2024 年第三季為 3.7 個百分點，這是同比盈利能力提高的主要驅動因素。

Third quarter 2025 gross and net written premiums in this group were 6% and 9% lower, respectively, than the comparable prior year period. As mentioned before, the earlier reporting of crop acreage by insureds impacted the timing of the recording of crop premiums and contributed to the year-over-year decrease, particularly when compared to later reporting of acreage the previous year. Excluding the crop business, gross written premiums in this group grew by 2% and net written premiums were flat. We continued to see new business opportunities, a favorable rate environment, and increased exposures in our transportation businesses.

2025 年第三季該組的總保費和淨保費分別比去年同期下降了 6% 和 9%。如前所述，投保人較早報告作物種植面積影響了作物保費的記錄時間，並導致了同比下降，特別是與前一年較晚報告種植面積的情況相比。剔除農作物業務後，該組的總保費收入成長了 2%，淨保費收入持平。我們持續看到新的商機、有利的利率環境以及運輸業務方面不斷增長的業務機會。

Overall renewal rates in this group increased 6% on average in the third quarter of 2025. We continue to remain focused on rate adequacy, particularly in our commercial auto liability line of business, where rates were up approximately 11% in the third quarter. In our crop business, harvest pricing for corn and soybeans settled 10% and 2% lower, respectively, than spring discovery pricing, which is well within acceptable ranges, and yield expectations are steady. Based on these factors, we continue to anticipate an average crop year.

2025年第三季度，該組的整體續約率平均成長了6%。我們將繼續專注於費率的合理性，尤其是在我們的商業汽車責任險業務領域，該業務的費率在第三季上漲了約 11%。在我們的農作物業務中，玉米和大豆的收穫價格分別比春季發現價格低 10% 和 2%，這都在可接受的範圍內，產量預期也保持穩定。基於這些因素，我們仍然預期今年作物收成將達到平均水準。

Our third quarter results reflect an element of seasonality, as most of our crop insurance premiums are earned in AFG's third quarter but booked at a more conservative combined ratio until the fourth quarter. Over the coming weeks, we'll have better visibility into actual yields and claim activity in our MPCI businesses, and we'll also have a clearer indication of the performance of our private products business. With this more complete picture, we'll record the majority of our calendar year crop profitability in the fourth quarter, as is our standard practice.

我們第三季的業績反映了一定的季節性因素，因為我們的大部分農作物保險保費是在 AFG 的第三季賺取的，但要到第四季才會以更保守的綜合比率入帳。在接下來的幾周里，我們將更了解 MPCI 業務的實際收益和索賠活動，我們也將更清楚地了解私人產品業務的表現。有了更全面的信息，我們將按照慣例，把全年大部分作物盈利計入第四季度。

The businesses in our Specialty Casualty Group achieved a 95.8% calendar year combined ratio overall in the third quarter, 3.7 points higher than the 92.1% reported in the comparable period in 2024.

我們專業意外險集團旗下各業務在第三季的日曆年度綜合比率為 95.8%，比 2024 年同期報告的 92.1% 高出 3.7 個百分點。

Third quarter gross written premiums increased 3% and net written premiums were flat compared to the same prior year period. The primary drivers of growth included new business opportunities and favorable renewal pricing in several of our targeted markets businesses and an increase in M&A activity that contributed to growth in our mergers and acquisitions business. This growth was tempered by lower premiums in our excess and surplus, executive liability, and social services businesses.

第三季毛保費營收成長3%，淨保費收入與去年同期持平。成長的主要驅動因素包括我們在幾個目標市場業務中獲得的新業務機會和有利的續約價格，以及併購活動的增加，這促進了我們併購業務的成長。由於我們的超額和剩餘保險、高階主管責任險和社會服務業務的保費下降，這一增長受到抑制。

Overall renewal pricing in this group was up approximately 7% during the third quarter, an increase of about a point from the previous quarter. Average renewal pricing excluding workers' comp was up approximately 8%, in line with pricing in the second quarter. And I'm pleased that we again achieved renewal rate increases in the mid-teens in our most social inflation-exposed businesses, including our social services and excess liability businesses. In addition, our workers' compensation businesses collectively achieved a modest pricing increase during the quarter, a favorable trend. Several businesses in this group, particularly our excess liability businesses, have been navigating the challenges of social inflation for several years and have demonstrated their nimbleness and resilience through this cycle. Over the last five years, one of our largest excess liability businesses has decreased aggregate limits by 25%, while more than doubling premium, primarily as a result of rate increases.

第三季度，該組的整體續約價格上漲了約 7%，比上一季上漲了約 1 個百分點。不包括工傷賠償在內的平均續保價格上漲了約 8%，與第二季的價格持平。我很高興，我們再次實現了受社會通膨影響最大的業務（包括社會服務和超額責任業務）的續保率增長，增幅達到 15% 左右。此外，本季我們的工傷賠償業務整體實現了小幅漲價，這是一個有利的趨勢。該集團的幾家企業，特別是我們的超額責任險業務，多年來一直在應對社會通膨的挑戰，並在這一週期中展現了靈活性和韌性。過去五年，我們最大的超額責任險業務之一的總限額下降了 25%，而保費卻增加了一倍多，這主要是由於費率上漲造成的。

We're continuing to exercise discipline through the use of predictive analytics, risk selection, and careful coordination between our underwriting, actuarial, and claims professionals to ensure that our businesses are earning targeted returns.

我們將繼續運用預測分析、風險選擇以及承保、精算和理賠專業人員之間的密切協調來嚴格把控業務，以確保我們的業務獲得預期的回報。

The Specialty Financial Group continued to achieve excellent underwriting margins and reported a combined ratio of 81.1% for the third quarter of 2025, 11.2 points better than the comparable period in 2024. These results reflect 4.1 points related to catastrophe losses, compared to 14.4 points in the prior year period, contributing to higher year-over-year underwriting profitability in our financial institutions business.

專業金融集團持續維持優異的承保利潤率，2025 年第三季綜合比率為 81.1%，比 2024 年同期改善了 11.2 個百分點。這些結果反映了與巨災損失相關的 4.1 個百分點，而去年同期為 14.4 個百分點，這有助於提高我們金融機構業務的承保獲利能力。

Third quarter gross and net written premiums in this group were up 3% and 1%, respectively, when compared to the prior year period. The growth is primarily attributed to our growth in our financial institutions business and our Great American Europe business, which designs and delivers a broad portfolio of innovative and customized insurance programs across the UK and Europe. Net written premiums were tempered by our decision to cede more of the coastal-exposed property business and our lender services business. Renewal pricing in this group was down approximately 2% in the third quarter, reflecting the strong margins earned overall in these businesses.

與去年同期相比，該集團第三季​​毛保費和淨保費分別成長了 3% 和 1%。這一成長主要歸功於我們在金融機構業務和大美洲歐洲業務方面的成長，這兩個業務在英國和歐洲設計和提供廣泛的創新和客製化保險方案。由於我們決定將更多沿海地區的房地產業務和貸款人服務業務轉讓出去，淨保費收入下降。第三季度，該組別的續約價格下降了約 2%，反映出這些業務整體利潤率較高。

Craig and I are proud of our history of long-term value creation. We have years of experience navigating economic and insurance cycles. Our insurance professionals continue to exercise their Specialty Property and Casualty knowledge and experience to successfully compete in a dynamic marketplace. And our in-house investment team has been both strategic and opportunistic in the management of our $17 billion investment portfolio. One of our greatest strengths is finding opportunities in times of uncertainty. We're well positioned to continue to build long-term value for our shareholders for the remainder of 2025 and beyond.

克雷格和我為我們長期以來創造價值的歷史感到自豪。我們擁有多年應對經濟和保險週期的經驗。我們的保險專業人員將繼續運用其在專業財產和意外保險方面的知識和經驗，在瞬息萬變的市場中取得成功。我們的內部投資團隊在管理我們170億美元的投資組合時，既展現了戰略眼光，又把握了機會。我們最大的優勢之一就是在不確定時期發現機會。我們已做好充分準備，在 2025 年剩餘時間及以後繼續為股東創造長期價值。

Now we'll open the lines for the Q&A portion of today's call, and Craig and Brian and I will be happy to respond to your questions.

現在我們將進入今天電話會議的問答環節，克雷格、布萊恩和我將很樂意回答大家的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski of BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Mike Zaremski。

Hi, thanks. Good morning, everybody. First question on capital management. We clearly saw the special dividend announcement, but curious why there were no buybacks or not material buybacks in the quarter? Last quarter, you had done buybacks and valuation wasn't too dissimilar from the average this quarter, is my understanding. So just curious, any color there and do you expect repurchases to resume, depending on your, I guess, your answer?

您好，謝謝。各位早安。關於資本管理的第一個問題。我們清楚地看到了特別股息公告，但令人好奇的是，為什麼本季沒有股票回購，或回購規模不大？據我了解，上個季度你們進行了股票回購，估值與本季的平均值相差不大。所以我很好奇，你們那裡有什麼顏色嗎？你們預計回購會恢復嗎？這取決於你們的回答。

Yeah. Mike, this is Craig. What I would say is if you look at our history of purchases, we become very active when the stock is trading at a very significant discount to what we believe is the appropriate value. There have been periods when we have repurchased very large amounts of shares or a period back in I think it was 2008 through 2010, we repurchased around 30% of our shares at a very attractive level. So I wouldn't read too much into one quarter's repurchases or lack of repurchases. What I would say is, we've retained a lot of dry powder to be able to take advantage of the opportunity to repurchase shares if it presents itself.

是的。麥克，我是克雷格。我想說的是，如果你看看我們過往的購買記錄，你會發現當股票的交易價格遠低於我們認為的合理價值時，我們會非常積極地進行買入。我們曾多次回購大量股票，例如在 2008 年至 2010 年期間，我們以非常優惠的價格回購了約 30% 的股票。所以，我不會過度解讀一個季度的回購情況或回購不足的情況。我想說的是，我們保留了大量可用資金，以便在機會出現時能夠抓住機會回購股票。

Okay. That's helpful, Craig. Pivoting to the operating environment on the P&C side, I thought it's a good comment to hear, but I thought it was a bit surprising. At least we got some reaction last night from investors when you said that pricing was about 5% with and without comp, and you believe you're achieving rate in excess of prospective loss trends, just because most -- many companies, and I think if you look at triangles too, would kind of estimate loss trend is north of 5%. Any commentary you'd like to elaborate there on in terms of my assumption there?

好的。那很有幫助，克雷格。轉而談到財產和意外保險方面的營運環境，我覺得這是一個值得聽取的評論，但同時也感到有些意外。昨晚，當您說定價（無論是否考慮可比公司）約為 5% 時，至少投資者做出了一些反應。您認為您實現的費率高於預期損失趨勢，因為大多數公司（我認為如果您也看看三角模型，您會發現）估計損失趨勢在 5% 以上。關於我的假設，您還有什麼想補充說明的嗎？

I can't speak for other companies. I can speak for us, and an overall 5% price increase is still exceeding our prospective loss ratio trends. We have a decent chunk of our business in workers' comp where loss ratio trends are really pretty benign. And a lot of other businesses -- we have a very diverse portfolio, so not all of our businesses reflect a casualty loss ratio trend. So I can only speak for our own mix of business and what our own actuaries tell us.

我無法代表其他公司發言。我可以代表我們發言，5% 的整體價格上漲仍然超過了我們預期的損失率趨勢。我們相當一部分業務來自工傷賠償，而工傷賠償的賠付率趨勢確實相當溫和。還有很多其他業務——我們的業務組合非常多元化，因此並非所有業務都能反映意外損失率趨勢。所以我只能代表我們自己的業務組合以及我們自己的精算師告訴我們的情況發言。

Got it. And so just that's helpful, Carl. And so sticking to kind of loss trend and pricing, if we can kind of try to laser in on some of the lines of business that have been causing more friction over the past year for you all and the industry. Obviously, appreciate your ROE. AFG's ROE is industry-leading. But if we think about the social inflationary lines of business, are we seeing pricing which had been accelerating, kind of stopping its acceleration trend? And do you believe loss cost trend is kind of remaining stable? Or are we continuing to see some upwards bias? It's looking at the underlying loss ratio in Specialty Casualty, for example, the trend line there, moving a bit north? Thanks.

知道了。所以，這很有幫助，卡爾。因此，我們繼續關注虧損趨勢和定價，希望能專注於過去一年來為各位和整個產業帶來更多摩擦的一些業務領域。當然，我很欣賞你的投資報酬率。AFG的股本回報率在業界領先。但如果我們考慮社會通膨相關業務，我們是否看到價格一直在加速上漲，而現在這種加速上漲的趨勢似乎正在停止？你認為損失成本趨勢會維持穩定嗎？或者我們仍然看到一些向上偏差？例如，它正在關注特殊意外險的潛在損失率，以及該領域的趨勢線，看看它是否略微向上移動？謝謝。

Again, with 30 plus businesses, we adjust loss ratio trends every quarter. We do actuarial evaluations and evaluations in the business, and some loss ratio trends improve. Other loss ratio trends, particularly in social inflation exposed businesses, we're very careful about trying to be conservative enough to consider pricing. So I think not a lot of changes. I don't think, over the past couple of quarters, in overall loss ratio trends, but some businesses would have improved. Some businesses would have increased a little bit.

同樣，由於我們擁有 30 多家企業，因此我們每季都會調整損失率趨勢。我們在業務中進行精算評估和評估，一些損失率趨勢有所改善。其他損失率趨勢，特別是受社會通膨影響較大的企業，我們非常謹慎地嘗試採取足夠保守的策略來考慮定價。所以我覺得不會有太大變化。我認為，在過去幾個季度裡，整體損失率趨勢並沒有改善，但一些企業的損失率應該會下降。有些企業的收入可能會略有成長。

In our case, the part of our business where we had a slight decline was in our Specialty Financial business and particularly in our lender-placed property business, which at the big margins that business have earned for us. And after multi years of pretty significant rate increase, it's not surprising, that there was some plateauing of price on that business.

就我們而言，業務略有下滑的部分是我們的特種金融業務，尤其是我們的貸款機構安排的房地產業務，而這項業務一直以來都為我們帶來了豐厚的利潤。經過多年相當大的利率上漲，該行業的價格出現一定程度的停滯也就不足為奇了。

So compared to what a lot of the E&S market and some of the large property guys are seeing with price change, I'll take a couple percent decline on our lender-placed property business over the chunk of business that's seeing double-digit declines, if you understand what I'm saying. So I think that was one of the main drivers of our pricing being a little bit lower.

所以，與許多 E&S 市場和一些大型房地產公司所看到的價格變化相比，我寧願我們的貸款機構安排的房地產業務出現幾個百分點的下降，也不願看到部分業務出現兩位數的下降，你明白我的意思嗎？所以我認為這是我們定價略低的主要原因之一。

I think what I am happy about is the pricing in our Specialty Casualty excluding comp is still up 8% in the quarter. And to boot, yeah, I'm very pleased that we saw some price increase in our overall workers' comp book, particularly being led by California, clearly. And I think that California will probably only get better. Brian, you were telling me that they're going to be taking an 11% increase in, was it September?

令我感到欣慰的是，我們特殊意外險（不包括合併險）的定價在本季仍上漲了 8%。此外，我很高興地看到我們的整體工傷賠償保險價格上漲，尤其是加州的價格上漲明顯帶動了這一趨勢。而且我認為加州只會越來越好。布萊恩，你之前跟我說過他們要在九月漲薪 11%，是嗎？

Effective September 1.

自9月1日起生效。

Yeah, so I think that's the price increase there in California should just get better. I hope that gives you a little color.

是的，所以我認為加州的物價上漲情況應該會好轉。希望這能帶給你一些色彩。

That's great color. Thank you.

顏色真好看。謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Andersen of Jefferies.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的安德魯安德森。

Hey, good afternoon. Good morning. Maybe just back on the workers' comp, it was good to see that price tick up, and it sounds like California could see some further momentum. But perhaps we could touch on some other geographies. Are you seeing some pricing tick up a little bit elsewhere?

嘿，下午好。早安.或許只是回到了工傷賠償方面，看到價格上漲是件好事，聽起來加州可能會有進一步的成長動能。但或許我們可以談談其他一些地區。你有沒有註意到其他地方的價格也略有上漲？

In our Strategic Comp business, which is a fairly sizable business, there was some positive price change there also. I think in the Southeast and the Summit business, it continues to be some kind of a mid-single-digit price decline.

在我們規模相當大的策略競爭業務中，價格也出現了一些正面的變化。我認為在東南部和峰會業務中，價格繼續出現中等個位數的下降。

Okay. And maybe a bigger picture macro question just on crop. Pricing on corn and soybeans has been coming in for a couple of years, and I suppose that could partially be due to some change in trade policies. But I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts just kind of on the outlook, maybe intermediate term for crop premium and crop pricing as kind of trading with global partners changes?

好的。或許還可以提出一個更宏觀的問題，就是關於裁剪的問題。玉米和大豆的價格已經公佈了好幾年，我想這可能部分是由於貿易政策的一些變化造成的。但我很想聽聽您對未來前景的看法，特別是關於農作物溢價和農作物定價的中期前景，以及與全球合作夥伴的貿易關係的變化？

Well, I think you probably need a pretty good crystal ball trying to figure that out. You would think that probably, the trade aspect of soybeans is probably being reflected in the futures prices at this point, which would lead you to believe that premiums should be stable or maybe even increase. Corn, when you look at futures prices into '26, it looks to be pretty stable against spring discovery prices this year.

嗯，我覺得你可能需要一顆相當精準的水晶球才能弄清楚。你可能會認為，大豆的貿易情況目前可能已經反映在期貨價格中，這會讓你相信溢價應該保持穩定，甚至可能上漲。從2026年的玉米期貨價格來看，它與今年春季的發現價格相比似乎相當穩定。

That said, we don't know until the actual 30-day average in the first quarter next year establishes spring discovery prices. But what I've seen so far, it seems like prices should be stable. Or if there's an improvement in the China relationship with the US, maybe soybean pricing continues to improve more.

也就是說，只有等到明年第一季實際的 30 天平均值確定春季新發現價格後，我們才能知道。但就我目前所見，價格似乎應該會保持穩定。或者，如果中美關係有所改善，大豆價格或許會繼續上漲。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Your line is now open.

（操作說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 公司的 Meyer Shields 系列產品。您的線路已開通。

Great. Thank you so much. I also had two questions on crop. The first, I completely understand the comments about written premium having moved to the second quarter. I'm wondering whether there was a higher percentage of earned premiums in Property and Transportation this year rather than last year as a contributor to the higher attritional loss ratio?

偉大的。太感謝了。我還有兩個關於農作物的問題。首先，我完全理解關於保費收入轉移到第二季的評論。我想知道，今年財產險和交通險的已賺保費比例是否比去年更高，這是否是造成損耗率上升的原因之一？

Hi, this is Brian. So if you remember, last year at this time, we were feeling pretty optimistic about the potential for above-average crop year. And then in the fourth quarter, there was some variation in harvest by county that caused us to end up at more of an average crop year. So we booked a little bit more crop income last year in the third quarter than we did this year in the third quarter.

大家好，我是布萊恩。所以，如果你還記得的話，去年這個時候，我們對今年作物收成高於平均的可能性感到非常樂觀。然後在第四季度，各縣的收成出現了一些差異，導致我們最終的作物產量與往年平均值相當。所以，去年第三季我們的農作物收入比今年第三季略高一些。

So this year in the third quarter, we have about half of our crop premium earned for the year in the quarter, booked at close to a 100% combined ratio. If you pull out all the noise from crop, our accident year loss ratio for Property and Transportation actually improved due to lower frequency in our transportation and marine businesses. So if you kind of put the noise of crop to the side, we could see an improvement there in the loss ratio.

因此，今年第三季度，我們全年約有一半的農作物保費收入已在本季實現，綜合比率接近 100%。如果剔除農作物的所有乾擾因素，由於運輸和海運業務的事故頻率降低，我們的財產和運輸事故年度損失率實際上有所改善。所以，如果把作物噪音放在一邊，我們就可以看到損失率有所改善。

Okay, that's very helpful. Thanks. And I'm just wondering, bigger picture in crops, so there's a new participating insurance company over the last couple of years. Is that having any impact on the amount of premium you're getting from agents or maybe some agents moving along? I don't know how mobile we should think of that premium as being?

好的，這很有幫助。謝謝。我只是在想，從更宏觀的角度來看，農作物的情況如何？過去幾年裡，出現了一家新的參與保險公司。這是否對您從代理商獲得的保費金額產生影響，或導致一些代理商離職？我不知道我們應該如何看待這種高級服務的移動性？

Well, I think it probably impacted us marginally. What our guys would say is, they're probably getting some of the business that we'd be least excited about.

嗯，我覺得它可能對我們影響不大。我們的人會說，他們可能拿到了一些我們最不感興趣的業務。

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you so much.

好的，這很有幫助。太感謝了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Okay, I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'll go ahead and turn the call back over to Diane Weidner for closing remarks.

好的，目前我沒有其他問題要問了。接下來，我將把電話轉回給黛安‧韋德納，請她作總結發言。

Thank you all for participating today. We appreciate your questions and look forward to talking to you again next quarter when we share our fourth quarter results. Hope you have a great day.

感謝各位今天的參與。感謝您的提問，我們期待在下個季度與您再次交流，屆時我們將公佈第四季度業績。祝你今天過得愉快。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。