American Financial Group Inc (AFG) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Financial Group 2025 fourth quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加美國金融集團2025年第四季業績電話會議。（操作人員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Diane Weidner, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我謹將會議交給今天的主講人，投資者關係副總裁黛安‧韋德納女士。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to American Financial Group's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings results conference call. We released our results yesterday afternoon. Our press release, investor supplement, and webcast presentation are posted on AFG's website under the Investor Relations section. These materials will be referenced during portions of today's call.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加美國金融集團2025年第四季及全年收益業績電話會議。我們昨天下午公佈了結果。我們的新聞稿、投資者補充資料和網路直播簡報已發佈在 AFG 網站的投資者關係版塊下。在今天的電話會議中，我們將部分內容提及這些資料。

Joining me this morning are Carl Lindner III and Craig Lindner, Co-CEOs of American Financial Group, and Brian Hertzman, AFG's CFO.

今天早上和我一起接受採訪的有美國金融集團的聯合首席執行官卡爾·林德納三世和克雷格·林德納，以及AFG的首席財務官布萊恩·赫茲曼。

Before I turn the discussion over to Carl, I would like to draw your attention to the notes on slide 2 of our webcast. Some of the matters to be discussed today are forward-looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results and/or financial condition to differ materially from these statements.

在將討論交給卡爾之前，我想提請大家注意我們網路直播第二張投影片上的註解。今天要討論的一些事項具有前瞻性。這些前瞻性陳述涉及某些風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際業績和/或財務狀況與這些陳述有重大差異。

A detailed description of these risks and uncertainties can be found in AFG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are also available on our website. We may include references to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure, in our remarks or in responses to questions. A reconciliation of net earnings to core net operating earnings is included in our earnings release.

有關這些風險和不確定性的詳細描述，請參閱 AFG 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，這些文件也可在我們的網站上查閱。我們可能會在發言或回答問題時提及核心淨營業收益（非GAAP財務指標）。我們的獲利報告中包含了淨收益與核心淨經營收益的調節表。

And finally, if you are reading a transcript of this call, please note that it may not be authorized or reviewed for accuracy, and as a result, it may contain factual or transcription errors that could materially alter the intent or meaning of our statements.

最後，如果您正在閱讀本次通話的文字記錄，請注意，該記錄可能未經授權或審核以確保其準確性，因此可能包含事實或轉錄錯誤，這些錯誤可能會嚴重改變我們聲明的意圖或含義。

Now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Craig Lindner to discuss our results.

現在我很高興將電話交給克雷格·林德納，讓他來討論我們的結果。

Good morning. I'll begin by sharing highlights of AFG's 2025 fourth quarter and full year results, after which Carl will walk through more details about our P&C operations and share AFG's business plan assumptions for 2026. We'll then open it up for Q&A, where Carl, Brian, and I will respond to your questions.

早安.首先，我將分享 AFG 2025 年第四季和全年業績的亮點，之後 Carl 將詳細介紹我們的財產和意外傷害保險業務，並分享 AFG 2026 年的業務計劃假設。接下來我們將進入問答環節，屆時卡爾、布萊恩和我將回答大家的問題。

The fourth quarter marked a strong finish to a great year for AFG. Our compelling mix of specialty insurance businesses, entrepreneurial culture, disciplined operating philosophy, and highly skilled team of in-house investment professionals collectively have enabled us to outperform many of our peers and continues to position us well for the future.

第四季為AFG精彩的一年畫上了圓滿的句點。我們強大的專業保險業務組合、創業文化、嚴謹的經營理念以及高技能的內部投資專業團隊，使我們能夠超越許多同行，並繼續為我們未來的發展奠定良好基礎。

Carl and I thank God, our talented management team, and our great employees for helping us to achieve these results.

卡爾和我感謝上帝、我們才華橫溢的管理團隊以及我們優秀的員工，感謝他們幫助我們取得了這些成果。

As you'll see on slide 3, a AFG's core net operating earnings were $10.29 per share for the full year 2025, generating a core operating return on equity of 18.2%. This ROE is calculated using an average of the five most recent quarter end balances of shareholders' equity, excluding AOCI.

正如您將在第 3 張幻燈片中看到的那樣，AFG 2025 年全年的核心淨營業收益為每股 10.29 美元，核心營業權益回報率為 18.2%。此淨資產收益率 (ROE) 的計算方法為：取最近五個季度末股東權益餘額的平均值，不包括其他綜合收益 (AOCI)。

We closed out the year with an exceptionally strong fourth quarter. As you'll see on slides 4 and 5, core net operating earnings per share were $3.65 per share, producing an annualized fourth quarter core return on equity of 25.2%.

我們以非常強勁的第四季業績為這一年畫上了圓滿的句點。正如您將在第 4 張和第 5 張投影片中看到的那樣，核心淨營業每股收益為 3.65 美元，第四季年化核心股本回報率為 25.2%。

Capital management is one of our highest priorities. Returning capital to our shareholders is a key component of our capital management strategy and reflects our strong financial position and our confidence in AFG's financial future.

資本管理是我們的首要任務之一。向股東返還資本是我們資本管理策略的關鍵組成部分，體現了我們強大的財務狀況以及我們對 AFG 財務未來的信心。

In 2025, we returned over $700 million to shareholders, which included $334 million or $4.00 per share in special dividends, $274 million in regular common stock dividends, and $99 million in share repurchases. Over the past five years, dividend payments and share repurchases have totaled $6.3 billion. Additionally, we increased our quarterly dividend by 10% to an annual rate of $3.52 per share beginning in October of 2025.

2025 年，我們向股東返還了超過 7 億美元，其中包括 3.34 億美元（每股 4.00 美元）的特別股息、2.74 億美元的普通股股息以及 9,900 萬美元的股票回購。過去五年，股利支付和股票回購總額達 63 億美元。此外，我們將季度股息提高了 10%，從 2025 年 10 月起，年股息為每股 3.52 美元。

Now I'd like to turn to an overview of AFG's investment performance and share a few comments about AFG's financial position, capital, and liquidity. The details surrounding our $17.2 billion portfolio are presented on slides 6 and 7.

現在我想概述 AFG 的投資業績，並就 AFG 的財務狀況、資本和流動性發表一些看法。有關我們172億美元投資組合的詳細信息，請參見第6頁和第7頁幻燈片。

Looking at results for the 2025 fourth quarter, Property and Casualty net investment income was approximately 12% lower than the comparable 2024 period as lower returns from alternative investments more than offset the impact of higher interest rates and higher balances of invested assets.

從 2025 年第四季的業績來看，財產和意外傷害保險的淨投資收益比 2024 年同期下降了約 12%，因為另類投資的回報下降超過了利率上升和投資資產餘額增加的影響。

For the full year ended December 31, 2025, P&C net investment income, excluding alternative investments, increased 5% year over year. Approximately 65% of our portfolio is invested in fixed maturities. In the current interest rate environment, we're able to invest in fixed maturity securities at yields of approximately 5.25%. The duration of our P&C fixed maturity portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents, was 2.9 years at December 31, 2025.

截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日止的整個年度，財產及意外險淨投資收益（不包括另類投資）年增 5%。我們投資組合中約 65% 的資金投資於固定期限債券。在目前的利率環境下，我們可以投資收益率約為 5.25% 的固定期限證券。截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，我們的財產及意外險固定到期投資組合（包括現金及現金等價物）的久期為 2.9 年。

The annualized return on alternative investments in our P&C portfolio was 0.9% for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to 4.9% for the prior year quarter. Although the overall returns on our multi-family investments continue to be impacted by an excess supply of new properties in some of our targeted markets, we are seeing signs of recovery.

2025 年第四季度，我們財產及意外傷害保險投資組合中另類投資的年化報酬率為 0.9%，而去年同期為 4.9%。儘管由於我們一些目標市場的新房屋供應過剩，我們的多戶住宅投資的整體回報仍然受到影響，但我們已經看到了復甦的跡象。

New starts have fallen nearly 50% since 2022, and completions peaked in 2024 and are rapidly declining. We continue to believe that in the last half of 2026, the tightening supply and significantly reduced pipeline will drive higher rental and occupancy rates.

自 2022 年以來，新開工工程減少了近 50%，竣工量在 2024 年達到高峰，之後迅速下降。我們仍然認為，在 2026 年下半年，供應趨緊和專案大幅減少將推動租金和入住率上漲。

Importantly, a sizable portion of our portfolio of multi-family properties is located in desirable geographies with strong job and wage growth. Longer term, we continue to remain optimistic regarding the prospects of attractive returns from our overall alternative investment portfolio, with an expectation of annual returns averaging 10% or better.

重要的是，我們投資組合中的相當一部分多戶住宅物業位於就業和薪資成長強勁的理想地區。從長遠來看，我們對整體另類投資組合的良好回報前景依然保持樂觀，預計年均回報率將達到 10% 或更高。

Please turn to slide 8, where you'll find a summary of AFG's financial position at December 31, 2025. During the fourth quarter, we returned $240 million to our shareholders through the payment of a $2.00 per share special dividend in November and our regular $0.88 per share quarterly dividend.

請翻到第 8 頁，您將在那裡找到 AFG 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日的財務狀況摘要。第四季度，我們透過 11 月支付每股 2.00 美元的特別股息和每股 0.88 美元的常規季度股息，向股東返還了 2.4 億美元。

In conjunction with our fourth quarter earnings release, we declared a special dividend of $1.50 per share, payable on February 25, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 16, 2026. The aggregate amount of the special dividend will be approximately $125 million. With this special dividend, the company has declared $55.50 per share, or $4.7 billion in special dividends since the beginning of 2021.

在發布第四季財報的同時，我們宣布派發每股 1.50 美元的特別股息，將於 2026 年 2 月 25 日支付給 2026 年 2 月 16 日登記在冊的股東。特別股息總額約 1.25 億美元。加上此次特別股息，該公司自 2021 年初以來已宣布每股派發 55.50 美元的特別股息，總計 47 億美元的特別股息。

AFG ended the year in a strong capital position. Our leverage ratio was less than 28%, we have no debt maturities until 2030, and our insurance company financial strength ratings are at the “A+” level for AM Best and Standard & Poor's.

AFG年底資本狀況良好。我們的槓桿率低於 28%，2030 年之前沒有債務到期，我們的保險公司財務實力評級為 AM Best 和標準普爾的 A+ 級。

We expect our operations to continue to generate significant excess capital in 2026, which provides ample opportunity for acquisitions, additional special dividends, or share repurchases over the rest of the year. We evaluate the best alternatives for capital deployment on a regular basis.

我們預計公司營運將在 2026 年繼續產生大量盈餘資本，這將為今年剩餘時間的收購、額外特別股息或股票回購提供充足的機會。我們會定期評估最佳的資金部署方案。

We continue to view total value creation, as measured by growth in book value plus dividends, as an important measure of performance over the long term. For the year ended December 31, 2025, AFG's growth in book value per share excluding AOCI plus dividends was 17.2%. We're extremely proud of the value we've created for shareholders over time.

我們仍認為，以帳面價值成長加上股利來衡量的總價值創造，是衡量長期績效的重要指標。截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日止年度，AFG 每股帳面價值（不包括 AOCI 和股息）成長 17.2%。我們為多年來為股東創造的價值感到無比自豪。

I'll now turn the call over to Carl to discuss the results of our P&C operations and our business plan assumptions for 2026.

現在我將把電話交給卡爾，讓他討論我們財產和意外保險業務的成果以及我們對 2026 年的業務計劃假設。

Thank you, Craig. Please turn to slides 9 and 10 of the webcast, which include an overview of our fourth quarter results. Fourth quarter underwriting profit set a new quarterly record for AFG, led by exceptionally strong profitability in our crop insurance operations.

謝謝你，克雷格。請翻到網路直播的第 9 張和第 10 張投影片，其中包含我們第四季業績的概述。AFG第四季承保獲利創下季度新紀錄，這主要得益於農作物保險業務異常強勁的獲利能力。

Nearly all the businesses in our diversified Specialty P&C portfolio continue to meet or exceed targeted returns, and we continue to feel confident about the strength of our reserves. We've assembled a diversified portfolio of Specialty Property and Casualty businesses that helps us navigate the peaks and valleys of the insurance cycle and respond to changing economic conditions. The non-correlation of many of our businesses, both to each other and to the broader insurance market has been instrumental to AFG's strong and consistent performance over many years.

我們多元化專業財產保險組合中的幾乎所有業務都繼續達到或超過預期收益，我們對自身儲備的實力仍然充滿信心。我們建立了一個多元化的專業財產和意外保險業務組合，這有助於我們應對保險週期的高峰和低谷，並應對不斷變化的經濟狀況。多年來，AFG 的許多業務彼此之間以及與更廣泛的保險市場之間都不存在相關性，這對於 AFG 取得強勁而穩定的業績至關重要。

Turning to slide 9, you'll see that underwriting profit in our Specialty Property and Casualty insurance businesses grew 41% and generated an outstanding 84.1% combined ratio in the fourth quarter of 2025, an improvement of nearly 5 points from the prior year period.

翻到第 9 張投影片，您會看到，我們的專業財產和意外保險業務的承保利潤在 2025 年第四季成長了 41%，綜合比率達到了 84.1%，比去年同期提高了近 5 個百分點。

Results for the 2025 fourth quarter include 0.2 points related to catastrophe losses, compared to 1.1 points in the 2024 fourth quarter. Fourth quarter 2025 results benefited from 1.6 points of favorable prior year reserve development, compared to 1.8 points of adverse prior year reserve development in the fourth quarter of 2024.

2025 年第四季業績包括與災害損失相關的 0.2 個百分點，而 2024 年第四季為 1.1 個百分點。2025 年第四季的業績受惠於去年同期有利的儲備發展 1.6 個百分點，而 2024 年第四季則受惠於去年同期不利的儲備發展 1.8 個百分點。

Fourth quarter 2025 gross written premiums were up 2% and net written premiums were down 1% when compared to the same period in 2024. For the full year, gross written premiums increased 2% and net written premiums were flat.

2025 年第四季毛保費收入較 2024 年同期成長 2%，淨保費收入較 2024 年同期下降 1%。全年來看，毛保費收入成長了 2%，淨保費收入持平。

As noted, we continued to benefit from the diversification across our 36 businesses and achieved premium growth in many of them as a result of a combination of new business opportunities, a good renewal rate environment, and increased exposures, while remaining disciplined and focused on underwriting profitability in some of the more challenging markets.

如前所述，我們繼續受益於旗下 36 項業務的多元化，並透過新業務機會、良好的續保率環境和增加的風險敞口等因素，在許多業務中實現了保費增長，同時在一些更具挑戰性的市場中保持自律，專注於承保盈利能力。

Average renewal rates across our Property and Casualty Group, excluding workers' comp, were up approximately 5% for the quarter, in line with the previous quarter. Average renewal rates including workers' comp were up approximately 4% overall.

本季度，除工傷賠償外，我們財產和意外保險集團的平均續保率上漲了約 5%，與上一季持平。包括工傷賠償在內的平均續保率整體上漲了約 4%。

We've reported overall renewal rate increases for 38 consecutive quarters, and we believe we are achieving overall renewal rate increases in excess of prospective loss ratio trends, allowing us to meet or exceed targeted returns.

我們已經連續 38 個季度實現了整體續保率的成長，我們相信我們實現的整體續保率成長超過了預期的損失率趨勢，使我們能夠達到或超過預期的回報目標。

Now I'd like to turn to slide 10 to review a few highlights from each of our Specialty Property and Casualty business groups. Details are included in our earnings release, so I'll focus on summary results here. The businesses in the Property and Transportation Group achieved an outstanding 70.6% calendar year combined ratio in the fourth quarter of 2025, an improvement of nearly 19 points from the comparable 2024 period.

現在我想翻到第 10 張投影片，回顧我們各個專業財產和意外傷害業務集團的一些亮點。詳細資訊已包含在我們的盈利報告中，因此我在這裡只重點介紹結果摘要。2025 年第四季度，房地產和交通運輸集團旗下各業務的日曆年度綜合比率達到了 70.6%，表現優異，比 2024 年同期提高了近 19 個百分點。

Record yields for corn and soybeans and favorable commodity pricing trends throughout the growing season, which contributed to a very strong crop year, and lower year-over-year catastrophe losses in our property exposed businesses were drivers of these exceptional results.

玉米和大豆的產量創歷史新高，整個生長季的商品價格走勢良好，這促成了非常強勁的作物年，而我們財產相關業務的年度災害損失也相應減少，這些都是推動這些卓越業績的因素。

Fourth quarter gross written premiums for 2025 in this group increased 5% from the comparable prior year period for the fourth quarter of 2025, while net written premiums were approximately 2% lower year over year. The increase in gross written premiums was due primarily to growth in our crop products that are heavily ceded, and to a lesser extent, growth in a transportation captive that has higher premium cessions.

該組 2025 年第四季毛保費收入較上年同期成長 5%，而淨保費收入較去年同期下降約 2%。毛保費收入的成長主要歸功於我們大量分保的農作物產品業務的成長，其次是運輸自保業務的成長，該業務的分保額較高。

Overall renewal rates in this group increased approximately 6% on average in the fourth quarter of 2025, consistent with pricing in the previous quarter. Pricing for the full year for this group was up approximately 7% overall. We continue to remain focused on rate adequacy, particularly in our commercial auto liability line of business, where rates were up approximately 15% in the fourth quarter and up 14% for the full year.

2025 年第四季度，該組的整體續約率平均成長約 6%，與上一季的價格一致。該組全年價格總體上漲約 7%。我們將繼續專注於費率的合理性，尤其是在我們的商業汽車責任險業務方面，該業務的費率在第四季度上漲了約 15%，全年上漲了 14%。

The businesses in our Specialty Casualty Group achieved a 96.7% calendar year combined ratio overall in the fourth quarter, 5.3 points higher than the 91.4% reported in the comparable period in 2024. Combined ratios at this level for these longer-tailed lines of business typically generate returns on equity in the high teens or better.

我們專業意外險集團旗下各業務在第四季的日曆年度綜合比率為 96.7%，比 2024 年同期報告的 91.4% 高出 5.3 個百分點。對於這些長期業務線而言，這種水準的綜合比率通常會產生接近 10% 或更高的股本回報率。

Fourth quarter 2025 gross and net written premiums increased 2% and 3%, respectively, when compared to the same prior year period. The primary drivers of growth included new business opportunities, favorable renewal pricing in our targeted markets business, new business opportunities in our mergers and acquisition business, growth in our workers' comp businesses, and new premiums from one of our start-up businesses.

2025 年第四季毛保費和淨保費分別比去年同期成長 2% 和 3%。成長的主要驅動因素包括新的業務機會、目標市場業務中有利的續保價格、併購業務中的新業務機會、工傷賠償業務的成長，以及新創公司帶來的新保費收入。

Growth was tempered by lower year-over-year premiums in our executive liability and excess and surplus lines business, where we experienced heightened competitive pressures for both new and renewal business. Overall renewal pricing in this group was up about 5% during the fourth quarter. Average renewal pricing excluding workers' comp, was up 6% in the fourth quarter. For the full year, pricing excluding workers' comp was up about 8%. I continue to be pleased that we continue to achieve renewal rate increases of 10% or better during the quarter in several of our social inflation-exposed businesses, including our social services and excess liability businesses, with full year increases across these lines in the range of 13% to 15%. In addition, our workers' compensation businesses collectively achieved a modest pricing increase during the quarter, similar to our results in the third quarter.

由於高階主管責任保險和超額及剩餘險業務的保費同比下降，成長受到抑制，我們在新業務和續保業務方面都面臨著日益激烈的競爭壓力。第四季度，該組別的整體續約價格上漲了約 5%。第四季度，不包括工傷賠償在內的平均續約價格上漲了 6%。全年來看，不包括工傷賠償在內的價格上漲了約 8%。我很高興地看到，在本季度，我們幾個受社會通膨影響的業務（包括社會服務和超額負債業務）的續保率繼續增長 10% 或更高，這些業務的全年增長率在 13% 到 15% 之間。此外，本季我們的工傷賠償業務整體實現了小幅漲價，與第三季的業績類似。

Moving on to the Specialty Financial Group continued to achieve excellent underwriting margins and reported an excellent 83.0% combined ratio for the fourth quarter of 2025, 2.3 points higher than the prior year period. Fourth quarter 2025 gross and net written premiums in this group decreased by 4% and 10%, respectively, when compared to the same prior year period. Higher year-over-year premiums in our European operations were more than offset by lower premiums in our financial institutions business, which has produced very strong growth over the past several years. Net written premiums were tempered by our decision to cede more of the coastal exposed property business in our financial institutions business beginning in the second quarter of 2025.

再來看專業金融集團，該集團繼續保持著優異的承保利潤率，並報告 2025 年第四季綜合比率為 83.0%，比上年同期高出 2.3 個百分點。2025 年第四季度，該組的總保費和淨保費分別比去年同期下降了 4% 和 10%。歐洲業務保費較去年同期上漲，但金融機構業務保費下降，抵銷了歐洲業務保費較去年同期上漲的影響。金融機構業務在過去幾年中實現了非常強勁的成長。由於我們決定從 2025 年第二季開始，將我們金融機構業務中更多海岸風險財產業務轉讓出去，淨保費收入下降。

Now as we look to 2026, in lieu of providing formal earnings guidance, we have provided several key assumptions underlying our 2026 business plan, which you'll see summarized on slide 11. We believe these assumptions are among the most relevant and helpful to analysts and investors in modeling AFG's business and in forming an investment thesis.

現在，展望 2026 年，我們沒有提供正式的獲利預測，而是提供了我們 2026 年商業計劃的幾個關鍵假設，您將在第 11 頁幻燈片中看到這些假設的總結。我們認為這些假設對於分析師和投資者在建立 AFG 業務模型和形成投資邏輯時是最相關、最有幫助的假設之一。

These assumptions for 2026 include growth in net written premiums of 3% to 5% from the $7.1 billion reported last year, a combined ratio of approximately 92.5%, a reinvestment rate of approximately 5.25%, and an annual return of approximately 8% on our $2.8 billion portfolio of alternative investments.

2026 年的這些假設包括：淨保費收入較去年報告的 71 億美元增長 3% 至 5%，綜合比率約為 92.5%，再投資率約為 5.25%，以及我們 28 億美元的另類投資組合的年回報率約為 8%。

We expect that performance in line with these assumptions would result in core net operating earnings per share of approximately $11.00 in 2026 and generate a core operating return on equity excluding AOCI of approximately 18%.

我們預計，根據這些假設，到 2026 年，核心淨經營每股收益將達到約 11.00 美元，不計其他綜合收益 (AOCI) 的核心經營權益回報率將達到約 18%。

As we consider our outlook on growth, we're optimistic about several of our start-up businesses and the near completion of numerous underwriting actions taken in our Specialty Casualty businesses. However, we're mindful of pockets of softening rates and continued competitive conditions and we'll maintain our disciplined, bottom-line focus as we pursue opportunities to grow profitably in 2026. Our assumptions include an average crop year. So we believe that the combination of our reserve strength, a continued healthy rate environment, prudent growth, and the ability to invest at a rate that exceeds our current portfolio yield positions us well as we enter 2026.

在考慮成長前景時，我們對幾家新創公司以及在專業意外險業務中即將完成的多項承保行動持樂觀態度。然而，我們注意到部分地區利率有所下降，競爭情況依然嚴峻，我們將繼續秉持嚴謹的獲利導向，尋求在 2026 年實現獲利成長的機會。我們的假設包括平均作物年份。因此，我們相信，憑藉我們雄厚的儲備實力、持續健康的利率環境、審慎的增長以及以高於我們當前投資組合收益率的利率進行投資的能力，我們在進入 2026 年時處於有利地位。

Craig and I are pleased to report these exceptionally strong results for the fourth quarter and full year, and we're proud of our proven track record of long-term value creation. Our insurance professionals have exercised their specialty property and casualty knowledge and experience to skillfully navigate the marketplace, and our in-house investment team has been both strategic and opportunistic in the management of our $17.2 billion investment portfolio.

Craig 和我很高興地宣布，我們第四季度和全年的業績都非常強勁，我們為我們長期創造價值的良好記錄感到自豪。我們的保險專業人員運用其在財產和意外傷害方面的專業知識和經驗，巧妙地駕馭市場；我們的內部投資團隊在管理我們 172 億美元的投資組合時，既具有戰略眼光，又善於把握機會。

We look forward to continuing to build long-term value for our shareholders this year and beyond.

我們期待在今年及未來繼續為股東創造長期價值。

We will now open the lines for the Q&A portion of today's call. Craig and Brian and I would be happy to respond to your questions.

現在我們將開放今天電話會議的問答環節。Craig、Brian和我都很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Hristian Getsov from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Hristian Getsov。

Hi. Good morning. My first question is on the 2026 business plan. I guess, what does that business plan assume in terms of rates relative to the 5% P&C renewal pricing ex-comp we saw in the Q4? And is there any assumption of prior period releases in the 92.5% combined ratio target?

你好。早安.我的第一個問題是關於2026年的商業計劃。我想，該商業計劃在費率方面對我們在第四季度看到的 5% 的財產和意外保險續保價格（不含競爭對手）有何假設？92.5%的綜合比率目標中是否考慮了前期績效的釋放？

So when we're looking at our combined ratio overall, we're really not necessarily specifically identifying any amount for prior year development. But as you can see historically for AFG, overall, we've tended to be conservative and had favorable development in most periods. Not that we're immune from adverse development, but we're hopeful that our reserving strategy set us up for a likelihood of favorable development, more than adverse development.

因此，當我們查看整體綜合比率時，我們實際上並不一定專門確定前一年發展的任何金額。但從阿富汗的歷史來看，總體而言，我們傾向保守，並且在大多數時期都取得了有利的發展。並非說我們就能免受不利因素的影響，但我們希望我們的儲備策略能讓我們更有可能迎來有利的發展，而不是不利的發展。

That being said, we would expect, if you look at what's happened in 2024, going into 2025 -- '24 and '25 going into '26, in '24 and '25, we continued to have a lot of unexpected favorable development out of workers' comp, but that was offset by some adverse development in social inflation-exposed businesses.

也就是說，如果我們回顧 2024 年到 2025 年的情況——2024 年和 2025 年到 2026 年，在 2024 年和 2025 年，我們繼續看到工傷賠償方面出現許多意想不到的有利發展，但這被一些受社會通膨影響的企業的不利發展所抵消。

Going into 2026, not that we have a crystal ball, but we would expect that the workers' comp will not continue to develop as favorably as it has in the past. But we also, given rate actions and reserving actions that we've taken, would not expect the adverse development from the casualty lines to reoccur.

展望 2026 年，雖然我們沒有水晶球，但我們預期工傷賠償制度的發展不會像過去那麼順利。但鑑於我們已採取的費率調整和準備金調整措施，我們也不認為意外險業務的不利發展會再次發生。

As far as pricing goes, I think we feel confident that we'll be still able to continue to get good price increases where we need them. There are other businesses, like our financial institutions business, where rate increases have moderated, but these are very profitable and manageable at the levels that they are.

至於定價方面，我認為我們有信心在需要的地方繼續實現合理的漲價。還有一些業務，例如我們的金融機構業務，利率上漲速度有所放緩，但這些業務利潤豐厚，而且目前的利率水準是可以控制的。

Got it. Thank you. And then, for the quarter, we saw a pretty meaningful uptick in the Casualty underlying loss ratio. Was there any change in loss picks, or was that more reflective of just being conservative given continued elevated loss trends? Or was there something you saw in the quarter that led to the change? And I guess, is that pick something that we could run rate going forward? Or any other color there would be appreciated.

知道了。謝謝。然後，在本季度，我們看到意外險基本損失率出現了相當大的上升。虧損預測方面是否有所改變，還是僅僅因為虧損趨勢持續高企而採取了更為保守的策略？或者說，你在本季看到了什麼促成這項改變的事情？我想，我們可以把這個選擇當作未來推廣的策略嗎？或其他任何顏色都可以。

Sure. So when you look at the -- so when you look at the accident year loss ratio, excluding cats for the Casualty Group in the quarter, what you'll see there is continued caution around our social inflation-exposed businesses, like our social services business, public entity business, and certain excess liability businesses where you've seen intermittent small pockets of adverse development in recent periods. So we are being cautious there in our current picks.

當然。因此，當你查看本季意外險集團的事故年度損失率（不包括巨災）時，你會發現，我們對受社會通膨影響的業務，如社會服務業務、公共實體業務以及某些超額責任險業務，仍然保持謹慎態度，因為在最近一段時間裡，這些業務出現了一些零星的不利發展。因此，我們在目前的選股方面比較謹慎。

Also, when you look at our relatively small book of California workers' compensation insurance, with the legal environment and things like cumulative trauma in that area, we are also being cautious in our accident year pick there. When you couple that with the rate increases that we have achieved and are achieving, we’re hopeful that those loss picks will set us up for a better chance of favorable development in future periods.

此外，考慮到我們在加州的工傷賠償保險業務規模相對較小，以及該地區的法律環境和累積性創傷等因素，我們在選擇事故年份時也比較謹慎。結合我們已經實現和正在實現的利率成長，我們希望這些虧損選擇能為我們在未來時期獲得更有利的發展機會奠定基礎。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Gregory Peters。

Good morning, everyone. I guess I just wanted to follow up on the workers' comp comments, Brian. Was there something unusual in the frequency or medical trend in a particular state this year that led to the results you reported or was this across the book?

各位早安。布萊恩，我只是想就工傷賠償的問題再補充一點。今年某個州的發病率或醫療趨勢是否有異常之處導致了你報告的結果，還是這種情況在整本書中都存在？

And I was interested in your comment about cumulative trauma. I know that's popped up and is on the radar for other workers' comp companies. I wonder if you could provide some color on how you're viewing that risk right now.

我對您關於累積性創傷的評論很感興趣。我知道這個問題已經出現，並且引起了其他工傷賠償公司的注意。我想請您詳細談談您目前是如何看待這種風險的。

For the most part, Greg, our loss ratio trends continue to be pretty benign. Positive trends around frequency, severity, not being abnormal. So again, our workers' comp business, our overall results for workers' comp, both on a calendar year and an accident year basis in 2025 continued to be excellent.

格雷格，總的來說，我們的損失率趨勢仍然相當溫和。頻率、嚴重程度、是否異常等面向均呈現正向趨勢。所以，我們的工傷賠償業務，以及 2025 年工傷賠償的整體業績，無論是按日曆年還是按事故年計算，都將繼續保持優異。

That said, the calendar year combined ratio for overall comp business in '25, was a few points higher than last year. And I've been pointing that out probably every quarter. And we probably would expect the same to happen into '26.

也就是說，2025 年整體同業業務的日曆年度綜合比率比前一年高出幾個百分點。我幾乎每季都會指出這一點。我們預計2026年也會發生同樣的情況。

But the good news is the results continue to be excellent. We would expect workers' comp to continue to be a very profitable line. California comp would be the exception. California, as you know, the industry probably has a combined ratio in excess of 120%. There was an approval of a rate increase in September of about 8.7%, a guideline rate that was put out there.

但好消息是，結果依然非常出色。我們預計工傷賠償保險將繼續是一個非常有利可圖的業務線。加州的情況是個例外。如您所知，加州的工業綜合比率可能超過 120%。9 月批准了約 8.7% 的利率上調，這是一個已公佈的指導性利率。

When you look at pricing in California, we're getting probably a healthy 10% price increase in the fourth quarter. So it seems like there's beginning to be a bit more of a backbone in the competitive environment in California, which I'm happy to see and happy to see us get some rate. Our combined ratio isn't 120% plus, but we're unhappy with it and working hard to improve it. So California is probably the one state that would be the exception.

從加州的物價來看，第四季物價可能會上漲 10%。所以看來加州的競爭環境開始變得更有韌性了，我很高興看到這一點，也很高興看到我們獲得了一些利率。我們的綜合比率雖然沒有超過 120%，但我們對此並不滿意，並正在努力改善。所以加州可能是唯一一個例外。

The cumulative trauma, sure that impacts Republic our California comp subsidiary. I think we've been taking into account in our loss reserve picks that aspect for years. That's not something that's a big surprise to us. So I think we've already been taking that into account.

累積性創傷肯定會影響到我們在加州的子公司 Republic。我認為多年來，我們在提列損失準備金時一直都考慮到了這一點。這對我們來說並不意外。所以我覺得我們已經考慮到這一點了。

Last year, our workers' comp business overall grew about 1%. When you look at overall pricing trends, I think I mentioned in comp, we actually had a modest price increase in the fourth quarter. I think from a growth standpoint, I would think we would probably see some growth this year, maybe 3% to 5% overall growth or something in workers' comp, which is a positive.

去年，我們的工傷賠償業務整體成長了約 1%。從整體價格趨勢來看，我認為我在比較分析中提到過，我們在第四季度實際上出現了小幅漲價。從成長的角度來看，我認為今年我們可能會看到一些成長，也許整體成長 3% 到 5%，工傷賠償方面也是如此，這是一個正面的訊號。

I hope that gives you some insight into your questions.

希望這能對你的問題有幫助。

Yeah.

是的。

I’ll just add on that same subject, just to size that California workers' comp focused business is less than $200 million in net written premiums for the year.

我再補充一點，加州專注於工傷賠償的業務今年的淨保費收入不到 2 億美元。

Yes. It's less than 15%.

是的。不到15%。

It's not a real big portion of our workers' comp business, let alone our overall business, but we do react to what we're seeing in the environment overall, both in setting our reserve picks and also, more importantly, informing us what we need to do from rate increases, leading to things like the near 10% in the fourth quarter.

雖然這在我們工傷賠償業務中所佔比例不大，更不用說在我們整體業務中所佔比例了，但我們確實會對整體環境的變化做出反應，這不僅體現在我們設定準備金選擇上，更重要的是，也體現在它告訴我們應該如何應對費率上漲，例如第四季度接近 10% 的漲幅。

Got it. Thanks for that detail. Hey, during your comments, you also highlighted start-up businesses. And maybe if could just spend a minute and just share with us some information -- more information about what's behind the start-up businesses and your expectation, especially considering I think we're -- admittedly, the broader P&C market is -- the rate environment seems to be softening up. So just curious about the areas of the market where you think there's opportunity.

知道了。謝謝你提供這個細節。嘿，你在評論中也重點提到了新創公司。或許您可以花一分鐘時間，和我們分享一些資訊——更多關於新創公司背後的情況以及您的期望，特別是考慮到我認為我們——誠然，更廣泛的財產和意外傷害保險市場——的費率環境似乎正在變軟。所以，我很好奇您認為市場中哪些領域有機會。

Yeah. Every year, we make investments and we start up businesses. And I think after making some investments and grinding through the early start-ups and a few things that we're beginning to see some success and progress. Things like specialty construction. We have E&S binding business, we would expect to see some more premium in that area. So areas like that, we have four or five different start-ups that I think will begin to show more progress. And the embedded solutions area, I think, is a new area for us that we're excited about, and we think will bear some fruit this year.

是的。我們每年都會進行投資和創辦企業。我認為，經過一些投資，克服了早期創業的種種困難之後，我們開始看到一些成功和進展。例如特殊建築工程。我們有E&S裝訂業務，我們預計該領域會有一些溢價。所以像這樣的領域，我們有四、五家不同的新創公司，我認為它們會開始取得更大的進展。我認為，嵌入式解決方案領域對我們來說是一個全新的領域，我們對此感到興奮，並認為今年會取得一些成果。

Thank you. My final question, and I know you've commented on this before, but the crop business, is there any spillover into the first half of '26 from the results of the '25 year crop year?

謝謝。我的最後一個問題，我知道您以前也評論過這個問題，但是關於農作物生意，2025 年的收成結果是否會對 2026 年上半年產生任何影響？

Yeah. There always is based off of area coverage results for a reinsurance year or some citrus and that type of thing. We obviously had a very strong year. So usually, there's always a true-up in the first quarter. And I think we'd be positive that there will probably be some positive true-up as the crop reinsurance here. And as you know, we're in the February discovery period for commodity prices.

是的。總是會根據再保險年度的區域覆蓋結果或某些柑橘類水果之類的東西來計算。顯然，我們度過了非常成功的一年。所以通常情況下，第一節總是會有一次調整。而且我認為我們有理由相信，這裡的農作物再保險可能會有一些積極的調整。如您所知，我們正處於二月份的大宗商品價格發現期。

And I mean, so far, as it relates to spring discovery, if the prices remain where they've been looks like corn’s discovery futures price is down maybe 3%, soybeans up 2%, but that would mean good things as far as stability on the premium base. I think if we have that kind of a scenario, I think we'd be looking at seeing the crop business maybe even grow a little bit, assuming spring discovery prices stay in the range that they are right now.

我的意思是，就春季發現期而言，如果價格保持目前的水平，玉米期貨價格可能會下跌 3%，大豆期貨價格可能會上漲 2%，但這對於溢價基礎的穩定性來說將是好事。我認為，如果發生這種情況，假設春季發現的價格保持在目前的水平，農作物業務甚至可能會略有增長。

Thank you very much for the answers.

非常感謝您的解答。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski from BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Michael Zaremski。

Hey. It's Dan on for Mike. My first one, just sticking with the Property and Transportation segment. So is the current accident year improvement this quarter just driven by favorable crop or what are you seeing in the other businesses in that segment? I understand maybe those are performing a little bit better, too. I'm just trying to get a better sense of the run rate there. Thanks.

嘿。丹代替麥克上場。我的第一篇博文，只關注房地產和交通運輸領域。那麼，本季事故率的改善僅僅是由於作物收成良好所致，還是該領域其他業務也出現了類似的情況？我知道那些產品的性能可能也略好一些。我只是想更好地了解那裡的運行率。謝謝。

Sure. So definitely, the big driver of the lower loss ratio as well as the lower expense ratio in Property and Transportation is coming from the very strong crop results. The rest of the businesses in that segment have performed very well and are pretty stable. I think when you get to looking at our annual statements that we file, I think you'll see that we continue to be cautious in our loss picks on commercial auto liability as well, for the same reasons we talked about in Casualty. But overall, very, very strong results across the whole segment. And even in commercial auto liability, where I mentioned that we're being cautious on the loss picks, we still have a small underwriting profit for the year, for overall commercial auto.

當然。因此，財產險和運輸險賠付率和費用率下降的主要原因是農作物收成非常強勁。該領域其他企業的表現都非常出色，而且相當穩定。我認為，當你查看我們提交的年度報表時，你會發現，出於與我們在意外傷害險中討論的相同原因，我們在商業汽車責任險的損失選擇上也繼續保持謹慎。但總體而言，整個細分市場都取得了非常非常強勁的成績。即使在商業汽車責任險方面，正如我之前提到的，我們對損失選擇非常謹慎，但我們今年的商業汽車整體承保利潤仍然很小。

So I think if you're trying to normalize things, I think the big driver of the strong results is the above-average crop year versus 2024 being more of an average crop year. And then looking to 2026, As Carl mentioned, our models would build in an average crop year versus the very strong crop year this year.

所以我覺得，如果你想讓一切正常化，那麼強勁的業績主要驅動因素是今年的作物產量高於平均水平，而 2024 年的作物產量則更接近平均水平。展望 2026 年，正如卡爾所提到的，我們的模型會預測今年的作物產量將與今年的豐收年相比有所下降。

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks. Then switching gears maybe to Specialty Financial and specifically on the lender-placed business there. Just curious about what drove the inflection in pricing a little bit sequentially to plus 1 from minus 2 in the prior quarter. And then bigger picture just with increased political focus on personal lines profitability. Is there any concern about that business just from a political lens on the lender-placed? Thanks.

好的。那很有幫助。謝謝。然後，或許可以轉換話題，關注專業金融領域，特別是那裡的貸款業務。我只是好奇是什麼原因導致價格環比略有變化，從上一季的 -2 轉為 +1。從更宏觀的角度來看，政治上越來越關注個人保險業務的獲利能力。從政治角度來看，貸款機構對該業務是否有任何擔憂？謝謝。

No, I don't think we have concerns on the political front. I think the Farm Bill actually got extended into September 2026. And it's supported by both sides, both Republicans and Democrats generally. As far as the pricing goes, our customers are large groupings of properties and so it depends quarter by quarter based off of, say, what a client might have in the way a coastal property and that may require a greater price versus an account that doesn't. So you can always expect some lumpiness around pricing.

不，我認為我們在政治方面沒有擔憂。我認為農業法案實際上已經延期至2026年9月。而且它得到了雙方的支持，無論是共和黨人還是民主黨人。至於定價方面，我們的客戶都是擁有大量房產的群體，因此價格會根據每個季度的具體情況而有所不同，例如，客戶是否擁有沿海房產可能需要比沒有沿海房產的客戶更高的價格。所以價格方面總是會有一些波動。

That said, this business is extremely profitable. And I think that rates have plateaued. I think there still is an effort to continue to move the biggest part of the business to insuring on a replacement cost value versus unpaid mortgage balance. So I think that continues to be a positive for this business.

也就是說，這項業務利潤非常豐厚。我認為利率已經趨於穩定。我認為目前仍有人努力將業務的大部分轉向以重置成本價值而非未償還抵押貸款餘額作為保險依據。所以我認為這對這家企業來說仍然是個好消息。

I think, as I mentioned, in the second quarter of last year, we did make a decision to cede more of the coastal-exposed property business, which did have some impact mainly towards the last half of the year. I think this year, we would expect low single-digit growth in this business, all things considered.

我認為，正如我之前提到的，去年第二季度，我們確實決定放棄更多沿海地區的房地產業務，這確實對下半年產生了一些影響。考慮到各種因素，我認為今年該業務的成長預期將僅為個位數。

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome 系列。

Hello. Thanks for the call. I was hoping you could give us a little bit more color about some of the social inflation-related businesses that you're remediating in the last year or so. It sounds like those businesses are maybe stabilized. Are you in a position where you can now grow those businesses? Or are they just stabilized? So maybe little bit of thoughts on that and whether those businesses may take a little longer before they go back to a growth potential?

你好。謝謝你的來電。我希望您能詳細介紹一下您在過去一年左右的時間裡正在解決的一些與社會通膨相關的業務問題。聽起來這些企業可能已經穩定下來了。您現在是否具備發展這些業務的條件？或者它們只是穩定下來了？那麼，關於這一點，或許可以稍微思考一下，這些企業是否​​需要更長的時間才能恢復到成長潛力？

Yeah. I think as we've mentioned in the past that we feel that we've worked through a cycle of corrective steps in our nonprofit business and in our excess liability business, restructuring to lower average limits and et cetera, et cetera, as well as price.

是的。我認為正如我們過去所提到的，我們已經完成了非營利業務和超額責任業務的一系列糾正措施，包括重組以降低平均限額等等，以及價格。

I think if you noticed in the third quarter -- I mean, in the fourth quarter, Specialty Casualty grew. We had low single-digit growth in that quarter, which is a positive. And I think when you look at, say, the excess liability business overall, it grew overall.

我認為如果你注意到第三季度——我是說，第四季度，專業意外險業務增長了。該季度我們實現了個位數低成長，這是一個積極的信號。我認為，如果你從整體來看，比如說，超額責任險業務，它總體上是成長的。

So I think that points towards this year, I think, an opportunity to see some mid-single-digit growth potentially in both excess liability or nonprofit business. So I think we would see, again, as I mentioned before, those businesses returning and having some growth opportunities and Specialty Casualty in general.

所以我認為這預示著今年超額負債或非營利業務可能會出現中等個位數的成長。所以我認為，正如我之前提到的，我們會再次看到這些企業回歸，並迎來一些成長機會，尤其是特殊意外險業務。

Makes sense. I wanted to ask a little bit of an extra question on the alternative investment portfolio. You're obviously hoping for or expecting a higher return this next year, but maybe not quite as high as it's historically been. Are there certain maybe macroeconomic things or particular things about the portfolio that as an outsider, we should be looking towards that would signal that extra couple of percent back to normal?

有道理。我想就另類投資組合再問一個問題。你顯然希望或預期明年能獲得更高的回報，但可能不會像歷史上那麼高。作為局外人，我們應該關注哪些宏觀經濟因素或投資組合方面的特定因素，才能預示著收益將額外恢復正常幾個百分點？

Yeah, Paul, this is Craig. As I think you know, around 50% of the alternative portfolio is in multi-family. And there has been a big oversupply the last couple of years of new multi-family properties that have been delivered. And the absorption rate is actually very strong, but we think it's probably going to take another couple of quarters to get back to a more normal environment.

是的，保羅，我是克雷格。我想您也知道，另類投資組合中約有 50% 是多戶住宅。過去幾年，新建的多戶住宅供應嚴重​​過剩。而且吸收率實際上非常高，但我們認為可能還需要幾個季度才能恢復到更正常的環境。

Historically, even with the poor returns in the recent past, over the last five years, we've still earned between 10% and 11% total return on our multi-family investments and good years significantly above that. So to get back to the historical levels of returns on the alternatives, it is going to require the multi-family properties to have a better rate environment, which as I said in the conference call script, we're seeing clearly a bottoming, and we're seeing some favorable signs in terms of absorption and new starts at a 10- or 12-year low.

從歷史數據來看，即使最近幾年的回報率不高，過去五年裡，我們的多戶住宅投資總回報率仍然達到了 10% 到 11%，而好的年份回報率則遠高於此。因此，要使另類投資的回報恢復到歷史水平，就需要多戶住宅物業擁有更好的利率環境。正如我在電話會議稿中所說，我們已經清楚地看到市場觸底，並且在吸納量和新開工量方面出現了一些有利跡象，目前處於 10 年或 12 年的低點。

So we think sometime in the last half of the year, we're going to see a better environment. Then 2027 and going forward for some number of years, we think is going to be a pretty favorable environment for multi-family, but that's what is going to be required to get back to our historical return levels on alternatives.

所以我們認為，在今年下半年某個時候，環境將會好轉。然後，我們認為 2027 年及以後幾年，多戶住宅市場將迎來相當有利的環境，但這正是我們恢復到另類投資歷史回報水平所必需的。

Thanks for the insights.

感謝您的見解。

So the group here is mentioning that on the question about lender-placed property and the political exposure, I think I was talking about the crop business. On the lender side, I think when you look at the regulation of that business, it's been more state by state. But I don't see lots of political risk with regards to lender-placed property.

所以，這裡這個小組提到了關於貸款人安排的房產和政治風險的問題，我想我當時說的是農作物產業。就貸款方而言，我認為當你審視該行業的監管時，你會發現它更多是因州而異的。但我認為，貸款機構提供的房產並不存在太多的政治風險。

I think it's to the lenders, I think it's providing a service, particularly when a lot of the business is due to cancellation of a homeowner's insurer by homers insurer. So it really provides a healthy backstop to financial institutions to make sure that there's coverage. So I don't see much political risk there.

我認為這是為貸款機構提供的服務，尤其是在許多業務都是由於房屋保險公司取消房屋保險的情況下。因此，它確實為金融機構提供了一個健康的後盾，以確保有保障。所以我認為那裡不存在太大的政治風險。

Appreciate the help, guys.

感謝各位的幫助。

Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields from KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields 系列。

Hi. Good morning. This is Jing on for Meyer. My first question is on the premium growth business plan assumption of 3% to 5%. Just curious if you guys could elaborate on which specific business lines are seeing the most favorable pricing heading into 2026? And what you see as the greatest opportunities for profitable growth within your 3% to 5% premium growth assumption?

你好。早安.這是Jing為Meyer做的報道。我的第一個問題是關於高級成長業務計劃假設的 3% 到 5%。請問各位能否詳細說明一下，在2026年之前，哪些具體業務線的價格最為優惠？在您設定的 3% 至 5% 的保費成長預期下，您認為最大的獲利成長機會是什麼？

Yeah. I think the good news is that at this point for the vast majority of our businesses, we think that we have an opportunity for premium growth this year. I think also when you look at the profitability of our businesses, almost all of our businesses are really meeting or exceeding the targeted returns that we require. So I think we'd love to have as much opportunity as we can get within pretty much all of our businesses.

是的。我認為好消息是，就目前而言，我們認為我們絕大多數業務今年都有機會實現溢價成長。我認為，從我們各項業務的獲利能力來看，幾乎所有業務都達到了甚至超過了我們要求的預期回報。所以我認為，我們希望在幾乎所有業務領域中都能獲得盡可能多的機會。

Got it Thank you. My second question will be on the Specialty Financial Group. You guys reported a decline in net written premium due to the increase on ceding of coastal-exposed property business in the financial institutions. Just curious if you can provide more color on the reinsurance strategy change made there and whether this level of cession is expected going forward in 2026?

明白了，謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於專業金融集團的。你們報告稱，由於金融機構向沿海地區承保的財產保險業務轉讓增加，導致淨保費收入下降。我很好奇您能否詳細介紹那裡所做的再保險策略調整，以及這種程度的再保險分保是否會在 2026 年繼續保持？

Yeah. We started that in the second quarter '25. So that book would have rolled on a different reinsurance basis through the first half of this year. If you're familiar with us, historically, we're a company that's had a relatively lower catastrophe exposure than our peers and we've had a lower appetite, right or wrong, or otherwise, for coastal property, pure earthquake risk, et cetera, et cetera.

是的。我們從 2025 年第二季開始實施。因此，該保單在今年上半年將採用不同的再保險方式。如果您熟悉我們，您就會知道，從歷史上看，我們是一家與同行相比災害風險敞口相對較低的公司，而且無論對錯，我們對沿海房產、純粹地震風險等等的投資意願都較低。

So I think we carefully manage, FIS is probably the business that has our biggest property exposure. So we very carefully manage that to what our -- the coastal exposures to what our overall company philosophy is. And when you look at our 1 in 250 or 1 in 500 exposure to capital. Brian, 1 in 500 exposure today for hurricane?

所以我認為，如果我們謹慎管理，FIS 可能是我們房地產風險敞口最大的業務。因此，我們非常謹慎地管理沿海地區的業務，使其符合我們公司的整體理念。當你看到我們每 250 人或 500 人中就有 1 人面臨資本風險。布萊恩，今天有五百分之一的人會接觸到颶風嗎？

Yeah. It's less than 3%. So compared to industry numbers that might be closer to double digit.

是的。不到3%。因此，與行業平均值相比，這一數字可能接近兩位數。

Got it. Thank you for the details.

知道了。謝謝你提供的詳細資訊。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Andersen from Jefferies.

（操作說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 公司的 Andrew Andersen。

Hey. Good morning. You had previously been doing some re-underwriting on Casualty around social services and I think within some pockets of E&S. Are you done with these underwriting actions as we head into 2026 and they're no longer a headwind?

嘿。早安.你之前一直在對社會服務相關的意外保險進行一些重新承保，我認為也包括一些緊急和特殊險種。隨著我們邁入 2026 年，這些承保行動是否已經結束，不再構成阻礙？

Yeah. For the most part, we might have a couple of million dollars of business that still to be non-renewed this year, particularly in the daycare side of things, we're pretty much through the non-renewal actions in housing accounts. So last year, the premium was down. I think this year, as I think I mentioned earlier, I think we would expect some modest premium growth in this business.

是的。今年我們可能還有幾百萬美元的業務需要終止，尤其是在托兒服務方面，住房帳戶的終止工作基本上已經完成。所以去年保費下降了。我認為今年，正如我之前提到的，我們預計該業務的保費收入將會適度成長。

Thanks. And then, Brian, if we go back to Specialty Casualty and the underlying loss ratio there, I'm just trying to understand the 69% in the quarter. Was there an intra-year catch-up in the fourth quarter? I suppose I'm just trying to get better color on what was the true underlying trend and what is maybe the kicking-off point for '26 underlying?

謝謝。然後，布萊恩，如果我們回到特殊意外險和那裡的基本損失率，我只是想了解這個季度的 69%。第四季是否有年內追趕措施？我想我只是想更了解真正的潛在趨勢是什麼，以及 2026 年潛在趨勢的起點可能是什麼？

Sure. So we look at our loss picks every quarter and make adjustments throughout the year. So in some of those units, things haven't been adjusted all year, the one that probably had a larger adjustment in the fourth quarter was the California workers' comp. But again, that's on the business that for the full year is less than $100 million of premium. So I wouldn't say that that's a run rate. I think the California workers' comp adjustment probably elevates the loss ratio a little bit. I think if you look at the full year loss ratio for Casualty, that's probably a better indication of like a run rate type of number.

當然。因此，我們會每季查看我們的虧損選擇，並在整個年度中進行調整。因此，在某些單位中，全年都沒有進行調整，第四季調整幅度較大的可能是加州工人賠償。但再說一遍，這是針對全年保費收入不足 1 億美元的業務而言的。所以我不會說那是運行率。我認為加州工傷賠償調整可能會略微提高賠付率。我認為，如果查看全年意外險賠率，那可能更能反映出某種運行率類型的數字。

Okay. Thanks. And then maybe one more. Just looking at the expense ratio, I think as we came into '25, there was maybe some business mix shift headwind and some commission changes. Have those find their level now and perhaps we could see some improvement into '26?

好的。謝謝。然後或許還會再來一個。單從費用率來看，我認為進入 2025 年時，可能存在一些業務組合轉變帶來的不利影響以及佣金變化。這些球隊現在是否已經找到了自己的水平，或許我們能在 2026 年看到一些進步？

Yeah. There will always be a mix of impact -- mix of business impact there. Like Carl mentioned something like our embedded insurance that could lead to some growth in that when we look at businesses, we look at the ROEs overall and the combined ratios to drive those ROEs. So if we grow in a business with a higher expense ratio, that would have a negative impact.

是的。影響總是多種多樣的——既有商業上的影響，也有其他方面的影響。就像卡爾提到的那樣，我們的嵌入式保險可能會帶來一些成長，因為當我們考察企業時，我們會專注於整體的 ROE 和綜合比率來推動這些 ROE。因此，如果我們在一個費用率較高的企業中發展壯大，將會產生負面影響。

What I would say in terms of the other things that might affect that, we continue to invest in the future for the company. So we continue to have some initiatives around customer experience, data analytics, which would include things like AI and machine learning, as well as IT security that can have a negative impact in the current period, but it's setting us up for strong ROEs in the long run. So I think that we should be good there. Not that you wouldn't see some upticks or downticks. And I think another thing I guess to know if you're looking at the expense ratio overall, is to remind you that in some of our businesses, we receive ceding commissions that vary with the profitability of the business. So like in the fourth quarter, the expense ratio for Property and Transportation looks very low. That's because with the very strong crop year, the ceding commission is higher, and since ceding commissions reduce underwriting expenses, the expense ratio looks very strong there. And then on the other side, in the Financial segment, where we have the very profitable lender-placed business, some of the commissions that we pay to brokers and agents vary with profitability over a long period of time. So as you add on collective strong performance quarter after quarter in that business, those profit-based commissions go up. So you see improved loss ratios in that business, but then because the broker commission goes up, it can cause the expense ratio to be a little higher.

至於其他可能產生影響的因素，我想說的是，我們將繼續為公司的未來進行投資。因此，我們繼續圍繞客戶體驗、數據分析（包括人工智慧和機器學習等）以及資訊技術安全開展一些舉措，這些舉措在當前時期可能會產生負面影響，但從長遠來看，這將為我們帶來強勁的淨資產收益率。所以我覺得我們那邊應該沒問題。當然，價格也會有一些波動。我想，如果您正在查看整體費用率，那麼還有一點需要了解，那就是在我們的一些業務中，我們會收到分紅佣金，這些佣金​​會隨著業務盈利能力的變化而變化。因此，與第四季度一樣，物業和交通運輸的費用率看起來非常低。這是因為今年作物長得喜人，轉讓佣金較高，而轉讓佣金可以降低承保費用，因此費用率看起來非常強勁。另一方面，在金融領域，我們有利潤豐厚的貸款機構業務，我們支付給經紀人和代理人的一些佣金會隨著獲利能力的長期變化而變化。因此，隨著該業務連續幾季取得強勁的業績，基於利潤的佣金也會增加。因此，你會看到該行業的損失率有所改善，但是由於經紀人佣金上漲，可能會導致費用率略高一些。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski from BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Michael Zaremski。

Hi. Just one more for me on capital management. I see the special dividend announcement. But just curious why there are no buybacks or material amount this quarter. You've done buybacks at similar valuation levels in previous quarters. Just wondering, should we be thinking about share repurchases to resume in 2026? Or how should we be thinking about that?

你好。關於資本管理，我還有一個問題想問。我看到了特別股息公告。但我很好奇為什麼本季沒有股票回購，也沒有實質的回購。你們在前幾季也以類似的估值水準進行過股票回購。我想知道，我們是否應該考慮在2026年恢復股票回購？或者我們應該如何看待這個問題？

Yeah. Mike, this is Craig. I wouldn't read too much into no share repurchases in the fourth quarter. As we’ve said previously, we're opportunistic in terms of repurchase programs. And when our shares are trading at a meaningful discount, we like to keep enough dry powder on hand to be in a position to buy a significant amount of shares.

是的。麥克，我是克雷格。我不認為第四季沒有股票回購這件事有什麼過度解讀。正如我們之前所說，我們在回購計劃方面是機會主義的。當我們的股票以相當大的折扣交易時，我們喜歡手頭保留足夠的現金，以便能夠買入大量股票。

I would comment that we did make a decision to reduce the special dividend that we're paying in the first quarter by $0.50 versus the previous year to save a little more dry powder for other alternatives, including the potential for share repurchases.

我想說明的是，我們決定將第一季支付的特別股息比上年減少 0.50 美元，以便為其他選擇（包括潛在的股票回購）節省更多資金。

Thank you. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Diana Weidner for closing remarks.

謝謝。現在，我謹將會議交還給戴安娜·韋德納，請她作閉幕致詞。

Thank you all for joining us this morning and for the great opportunity to answer your questions and share a little bit more about AFG’s story. So we look forward to chatting with you all again next quarter when we share our first quarter results. Hope you all have a great day.

感謝各位今天早上的到來，也感謝大家給我這個絕佳的機會來回答你們的問題，並分享更多關於 AFG 的故事。所以，我們期待下個季度與大家再次交流，屆時我們將分享第一季的業績。祝大家今天過得愉快。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。