American Financial Group Inc (AFG) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Financial Group 2025 second quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加美國金融集團2025年第二季業績電話會議。（操作員指示）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Diane Weidner, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在，我想將會議交給今天的第一位發言者，投資者關係副總裁黛安·韋德納 (Diane Weidner)。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to American Financial Group's second quarter 2025 earnings results conference call. We released our results yesterday afternoon. Our press release, investor supplement and webcast presentation are posted on AFG's website under the Investor Relations section. These materials will be referenced during portions of today's call.

早安，歡迎參加美國金融集團 2025 年第二季財報業績電話會議。我們昨天下午公佈了結果。我們的新聞稿、投資者補充資料和網路廣播簡報均發佈在 AFG 網站的「投資者關係」部分。這些資料將在今天的電話會議中被引用。

I'm joined this morning by Carl Lindner III and Craig Lindner, Co-CEOs of American Financial Group; and Brian Hertzman, AFG's CFO.

今天早上與我一起參加會議的還有美國金融集團聯合首席執行官卡爾·林德納三世 (Carl Lindner III) 和克雷格·林德納 (Craig Lindner)，以及美國金融集團首席財務官布萊恩·赫茲曼 (Brian Hertzman)。

Before I turn the discussion over to Carl, I would like to draw your attention to the notes on slide 2 of our webcast. Some of the matters to be discussed today are forward-looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results and/or financial condition to differ materially from these statements.

在我將討論交給卡爾之前，我想提請您注意我們網路廣播第二張投影片上的註解。今天要討論的一些問題具有前瞻性。這些前瞻性陳述涉及某些風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果和/或財務狀況與這些陳述有重大差異。

A detailed description of these risks and uncertainties can be found in AFG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are also available on our website. We may include references to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure, in our remarks or in responses to questions. A reconciliation of net earnings to core net operating earnings is included in our earnings release.

這些風險和不確定性的詳細描述可以在 AFG 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中找到，這些文件也可以在我們的網站上找到。我們可能會在評論或回答問題時提及核心淨營業利潤（非公認會計準則財務指標）。我們的收益報告中包含了淨收益與核心淨營業收益的對帳。

And finally, if you're reading a transcript of this call, please note that it may not be authorized or reviewed for accuracy. And as a result, it may contain factual or transcription errors that could materially alter the intent or meaning of our statements.

最後，如果您正在閱讀本次通話的記錄，請注意，它可能未經授權或準確性審查。因此，它可能包含事實或轉錄錯誤，可能會嚴重改變我們聲明的意圖或含義。

Now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Carl Lindner III to discuss our results.

現在我很高興將電話轉給 Carl Lindner III 來討論我們的結果。

Good morning. I'll begin by sharing a few highlights of AFG's 2025 second quarter results, after which Craig and I will walk through more details. We'll then open it up for Q&A, where Craig and Brian and I will be happy to respond to your questions. We're pleased to report an annualized core operating return on equity of 15.5% despite quarterly returns from alternative investments that tempered overall results.

早安.我將首先分享 AFG 2025 年第二季業績的一些亮點，然後 Craig 和我將詳細介紹。然後我們將進入問答環節，Craig、Brian 和我將很樂意回答大家的問題。儘管另類投資的季度回報率影響了整體業績，但我們仍很高興地報告，年度核心營運股本回報率為 15.5%。

Underwriting margins in our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance businesses were strong and higher interest rates increased net investment income, excluding alternatives, by 10% year-over-year. In addition, we returned over $100 million to our shareholders during the second quarter of 2025 through a combination of regular dividends and share repurchases.

我們的專業財產和意外保險業務的承保利潤率很高，較高的利率使不包括替代品的淨投資收入年增 10%。此外，我們在 2025 年第二季透過定期股利和股票回購等方式向股東返還了超過 1 億美元。

Our compelling mix of specialty insurance businesses, entrepreneurial culture, disciplined operating philosophy and an astute team of in-house investment professionals continue to serve us well in environments such as these and position us for long-term success.

我們引人注目的專業保險業務、創業文化、嚴謹的經營理念以及精明的內部投資專業團隊，在這樣的環境中繼續為我們提供良好的服務，並為我們取得長期成功奠定基礎。

Craig and I thank God, our talented management team and our great employees for helping us to achieve these results. I'll now turn the discussion over to Craig to walk us through some of these details.

克雷格和我感謝上帝、我們才華洋溢的管理團隊和優秀的員工幫助我們取得這些成果。現在我將把討論交給 Craig，讓他向我們介紹其中的一些細節。

Thanks, Carl. Please turn to slides 3 and 4 for second quarter highlights. AFG reported core net operating earnings of $2.14 per share compared to $2.56 per share in the prior year-end period. Our 2025 results reflect a year-over-year decrease in underwriting profit and lower returns on alternative investments.

謝謝，卡爾。請翻到投影片 3 和 4 以了解第二季的亮點。AFG 報告核心淨營業收益為每股 2.14 美元，而去年末為每股 2.56 美元。我們的 2025 年業績反映承保利潤年減以及另類投資報酬率下降。

I'll begin with an overview of AFG's investment performance and share a few comments about AFG's financial position, capital and liquidity. The details surrounding our $16 billion portfolio were presented on slides 5 and 6. Excluding the impact of alternative investments, net investment income at our property and casualty insurance operations for the three months ended June 30, 2025, increased 10% year-over-year as a result of higher interest rates and higher balances of invested assets.

我將首先概述 AFG 的投資業績，並對 AFG 的財務狀況、資本和流動性發表一些評論。我們的 160 億美元投資組合的詳細資訊已在第 5 張和第 6 張投影片中展示。不計另類投資的影響，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的三個月，我們的財產和意外保險業務的淨投資收入年增 10%，原因是利率上升和投資資產餘額增加。

As you'll see on slide 6, approximately two-thirds of our portfolio is invested in fixed maturities. In the current interest rate environment, we're able to invest in fixed maturity securities at yields of approximately 5.75%, which compare favorably to the 5.2% yield earned on fixed maturities at our P&C portfolio during the second quarter of 2025.

正如您在第 6 張投影片上看到的，我們投資組合中約有三分之二投資於固定期限債券。在當前利率環境下，我們能夠以約 5.75% 的收益率投資固定期限證券，與 2025 年第二季度我們的 P&C 投資組合中固定期限證券的 5.2% 收益率相比具有優勢。

The duration of our P&C fixed maturity portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents, was 2.8 years at June 30, 2025. The annualized return on alternative investments in our P&C portfolio was approximately 1.2% for the 2025 second quarter compared to 5.1% for the prior year quarter.

截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，我們的財產及意外險固定期限投資組合（包括現金及現金等價物）的期限為 2.8 年。2025 年第二季度，我們財產和意外保險投資組合中另類投資的年化報酬率約為 1.2%，去年同期為 5.1%。

As a result, overall P&C net investment income was approximately 5% lower than the comparable 2024 period. The impact on rental rates and occupancy from a surge in new apartment supply in certain otherwise strong markets reduced the fair value of some multifamily investments.

因此，整體財產和意外險淨投資收入比 2024 年同期低約 5%。在某些原本強勁的市場中，新公寓供應激增對租金和入住率產生了影響，降低了一些多戶型投資的公平價值。

This tempered the performance of our alternative investment portfolio in the second quarter of 2025 by nearly $30 million. Although substantial supply persists, new construction starts have plummeted. We expect current inventory to be absorbed over the next 12 months.

這使得我們 2025 年第二季的另類投資組合的表現下降了近 3,000 萬美元。儘管供應量依然充足，但新開工數量卻大幅下降。我們預計當前庫存將在未來 12 個月內被吸收。

Notably, multifamily starts were down approximately 20% year-over-year and down nearly 50% from their 2022 peaks. The combination of tightening supply and a significantly reduced development pipeline is forecast to drive higher rental and occupancy rates over the next several years and should result in stronger returns on our multifamily investments. Longer term, we continue to remain optimistic regarding the prospects of attractive returns from our overall alternative investment portfolio with an expectation of annual returns averaging 10% or better.

值得注意的是，多戶住宅開工量年減約 20%，較 2022 年的高峰下降近 50%。預計供應收緊和開發項目大幅減少將在未來幾年推動租金和入住率上升，並將為我們的多戶型投資帶來更高的回報。從長遠來看，我們繼續對整體另類投資組合的可觀回報前景保持樂觀，預計年回報率平均達到 10% 或更高。

Please turn to slide 7, where you'll find a summary of AFG's financial position at June 30, 2025. During the quarter, we returned over $100 million to our shareholders, including $39 million in share repurchases and our $0.80 per share regular quarterly dividend. We expect our operations to continue to generate significant excess capital throughout the remainder of 2025, which provides ample opportunity for acquisitions, special dividends or share repurchases.

請翻到投影片 7，您將看到 AFG 截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的財務狀況摘要。本季度，我們向股東返還了超過 1 億美元，其中包括 3,900 萬美元的股票回購和每股 0.80 美元的定期季度股息。我們預計，我們的營運將在 2025 年剩餘時間內繼續產生大量過剩資本，這為收購、特別股利或股票回購提供充足的機會。

We evaluate the best alternatives for capital deployment on a regular basis. We continue to view total value creation as measured by growth in book value plus dividends as an important measure of performance over the long term.

我們定期評估資本配置的最佳方案。我們繼續將以帳面價值成長加上股利來衡量的總價值創造視為長期績效的重要指標。

For the six months ended June 30, 2025, AFG's growth in book value per share, excluding AOCI plus dividends, was 6%. Our strong operating results, coupled with effective capital management at our entrepreneurial opportunistic culture and disciplined operating philosophy enable us to continue to create value for our shareholders.

截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的六個月內，AFG 每股帳面價值（不包括 AOCI 加股息）增加了 6%。我們強勁的經營業績，加上有效的資本管理，我們的創業機會主義文化和嚴謹的經營理念使我們能夠繼續為股東創造價值。

I'll now turn the call over to Carl to discuss the results of our P&C operations.

我現在將電話轉給卡爾，討論我們的財產和意外保險業務的結果。

Thank you, Craig. Please turn to slides 8 and 9 of the webcast, which include an overview of our second quarter results. Overall, underwriting profitability was strong in our Specialty P&C businesses in the second quarter of 2025, and we remain confident about the strength of our reserves. A continued favorable pricing environment, increased exposures and new business opportunities enabled us to grow our Specialty Property and Casualty businesses, and we continue to expect premium growth for the full year in 2025.

謝謝你，克雷格。請翻到網路廣播的第 8 張和第 9 張投影片，其中包含我們第二季業績的概述。整體而言，2025 年第二季我們的專業財產險和意外險業務的承保獲利能力強勁，我們對儲備金的實力仍然充滿信心。持續有利的定價環境、增加的風險敞口和新的商業機會使我們能夠發展專業財產和意外傷害業務，我們繼續預計 2025 年全年保費將實現成長。

Looking at a few details, you'll see on slide 8 that our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance businesses generated a 93.1% combined ratio in the second quarter of 2025, 2.6 points higher than the 90.5% reported in the second quarter of last year. Results for the 2025 second quarter include 2.3 points related to catastrophe losses consistent with results in the 2024 second quarter. Second quarter 2025 results benefited from seven tenths of a point of favorable prior year reserve development, compared to 2.3 points in the second quarter of 2024.

查看一些細節，您會在第 8 張投影片上看到，我們的專業財產和意外傷害保險業務在 2025 年第二季的綜合比率為 93.1%，比去年第二季報告的 90.5% 高出 2.6 個百分點。2025 年第二季的結果包括與災難損失相關的 2.3 點，與 2024 年第二季的結果一致。2025 年第二季的業績受惠於上年儲備金發展的良好成長，成長了十分之七個百分點，而 2024 年第二季則為 2.3 個百分點。

Second quarter 2025 gross and net written premiums were up 10% and 7%, respectively, when compared to the second quarter of 2024. Earlier reporting of crop acreage by insureds impacted the timing of the recording of crop premiums and contributed to the year-over-year increase, particularly when compared to later reporting of acreage the previous year. So if you exclude the crop business, our gross and net written premiums grew 6% and 5%, respectively.

與 2024 年第二季相比，2025 年第二季的毛保費和淨保費分別成長了 10% 和 7%。投保人提前報告農作物種植面積影響了農作物保費的記錄時間，並導致了同比增長，特別是與去年較晚報告種植面積相比。因此，如果不包括農作物業務，我們的毛保費和淨保費分別成長了 6% 和 5%。

Average renewal pricing across our Property & Casualty Group, excluding our workers' comp businesses, was up approximately 7% in the second quarter, consistent with pricing increases achieved in the first quarter. Including workers' compensation, renewal rates were up approximately 6% overall, about 1 point higher than in the previous quarter. We reported overall renewal rate increases for 36 consecutive quarters, and we believe we're achieving overall renewal rate increases in excess of prospective loss ratio trends to meet or exceed our targeted returns.

我們財產和意外險集團（不包括工傷補償業務）的平均續保價格在第二季上漲了約 7%，與第一季實現的價格上漲一致。包括工人賠償在內，續約率整體上漲了約 6%，比上一季高出約 1 個百分點。我們報告稱，整體續保率已連續 36 個季度上升，我們相信，我們實現的整體續保率增幅將超過預期的損失率趨勢，從而達到或超過我們的目標回報。

Now I'd like to turn to slide 9 to review a few highlights from each of our Specialty Property and Casualty business groups. Details are included in our earnings release, so I'll focus on summary results here. The businesses in the Property and Transportation group achieved a 95.2% calendar year combined ratio overall in the second quarter of 2025, 2.5 points higher than the 92.7% reported in the comparable 2024 period.

現在，我想翻到第 9 張投影片來回顧我們各個專業財產和意外險業務集團的一些亮點。詳細資訊包含在我們的收益報告中，因此我將在此重點介紹摘要結果。2025 年第二季度，財產和運輸集團業務的整體日曆年綜合比率達到 95.2%，比 2024 年同期的 92.7% 高出 2.5 個百分點。

The second quarter 2025 combined ratio benefited from 2.2 points of favorable prior year reserve development compared to 6.3 points in the 2024 second quarter, particularly reflecting especially strong results for our crop business in the prior year period.

2025 年第二季的綜合比率受惠於去年有利的儲備發展 2.2 個百分點，而 2024 年第二季為 6.3 個百分點，這尤其反映了我們上年同期農作物業務的強勁業績。

Second quarter 2020 gross and net written premiums in this group were up 15% and 10% higher, respectively, than the comparable prior year. As mentioned before, earlier reporting of crop acreage compared to 2024, which impacts the timing of crop premiums contributed to higher second quarter premiums in this group.

2020 年第二季度，該集團的毛承保保費和淨承保保費分別比去年同期增加了 15% 和 10%。如前所述，與 2024 年相比，農作物種植面積的報告較早，這影響了農作物溢價的時間，導致該群體第二季的溢價上漲。

Again, when you exclude the crop business, gross and net written premiums in this group grew by 6% and 5%, respectively. Increased exposures, new business opportunities and a favorable rate environment contributed to our growth in our transportation businesses.

同樣，如果排除農作物業務，該集團的毛承保保費和淨承保保費分別增加了 6% 和 5%。增加曝光、新的商業機會和有利的利率環境促進了我們運輸業務的成長。

Overall renewal rates in this group increased approximately 8% in the second quarter of 2025, a point higher than the pricing achieved in this group for the first quarter 2025. We continue to remain focused on rate adequacy, particularly in our commercial auto liability line of business where rates were up approximately 15% in second quarter.

2025 年第二季度，該組的整體續約率成長了約 8%，比 2025 年第一季該組的定價高出一個點。我們繼續關注費率充足性，特別是在我們的商業汽車責任業務線，該業務線的費率在第二季度上漲了約 15%。

In terms of our crop business, commodity futures pricing remains in acceptable ranges relative to spring discovery prices. And based on the most recent crop progress reports, overall corn and soybean conditions are slightly better than last year at this time. We believe that there's been adequate moisture to date in those areas so that the excessive heat in recent weeks shouldn't be problematic. However, moisture levels through August and early September remain important.

就我們的農作物業務而言，商品期貨價格相對於春季發現價格仍處於可接受的範圍內。根據最新的作物生長報告，玉米和大豆的整體長度比去年同期略有改善。我們相信，到目前為止這些地區的濕度已經足夠，因此最近幾週的過熱天氣不會造成問題。然而，8 月和 9 月初的濕度水平仍然很重要。

Now the businesses in our Specialty Casualty Group achieved a solid 93.9% calendar year combined ratio overall in the second quarter, 4.8 points higher than the very strong 89.1% reported in the comparable period in 2024. Second quarter 2025 gross and net written premiums increased 4% and 2%, respectively when compared to the same prior year period.

現在，我們特殊傷亡險集團的業務在第二季度總體實現了 93.9% 的日曆年綜合成本率，比 2024 年同期報告的 89.1% 的強勁成本率高出 4.8 個百分點。與去年同期相比，2025 年第二季的毛保費和淨保費分別成長了 4% 和 2%。

Higher year-over-year premiums in our mergers and acquisitions business and growth across a variety of other businesses in the group, resulting from new business opportunities, higher rates and strong policy retention were partially offset by lower premiums due to a challenging market in our Directors and Officers Liability business.

由於新的業務機會、更高的費率和強勁的保單保留率，我們的併購業務的保費同比上漲，以及集團內其他各項業務的增長，但因董事和高管責任險業務的市場挑戰導致保費下降，部分抵消了這一增長。

In addition, we continued to non-renew certain housing and daycare accounts in our social services businesses. Excluding our workers' comp businesses, renewal rates for this group were up 8% in the second quarter. Pricing in this group, including workers' comp was up about 6%. I'm pleased that we achieved renewal rate increases in the mid-teens in our most social inflation exposed businesses, including our social services and excess liability businesses.

此外，我們繼續不續簽社會服務業務中的某些住房和日托帳戶。不包括我們的工傷補償業務，該集團的續保率在第二季度上漲了 8%。包括工傷賠償在內的該群體的價格上漲了約 6%。我很高興，我們在受社會通膨影響最大的業務中實現了續保率成長，包括我們的社會服務和超額責任業務。

The Specialty Financial group continued to achieve excellent underwriting margins and reported a combined ratio of 86.1% for the second quarter of 2025, 3.6 points better than the 89.7% reported in the comparable period in 2024. These results reflect higher year-over-year underwriting profitability in our financial institutions and surety businesses. Second quarter 2025 gross and net written premiums in this group were up 15% and 12%, respectively, when compared to the prior year period, due primarily to growth in our financial institutions business. Renewal pricing in this group was flat in the second quarter.

專業金融集團持續實現優異的承保利潤率，2025 年第二季的綜合成本率為 86.1%，比 2024 年同期的 89.7% 高出 3.6 個百分點。這些結果反映了我們的金融機構和擔保業務的承保盈利能力同比有所提高。2025 年第二季度，該集團的毛承保保費和淨承保保費與去年同期相比分別成長了 15% 和 12%，這主要歸因於我們金融機構業務的成長。該類別的續約價格在第二季持平。

Craig and I are proud of our history of long-term value creation. We have years of experience navigating economic and insurance cycles. Our insurance professionals continue to exercise their Specialty Property and Casualty knowledge and expertise to successfully compete in a dynamic marketplace. Our in-house investment team has been both strategic and opportunistic in the management of our $16 billion investment portfolio. One of our greatest strengths is finding opportunities in times of uncertainty.

克雷格和我為我們長期創造價值的歷史感到自豪。我們擁有多年駕馭經濟和保險週期的經驗。我們的保險專業人員繼續運用他們的專業財產和意外傷害知識和專業技能，以在動態的市場中成功競爭。我們的內部投資團隊在管理我們 160 億美元的投資組合時既具有策略性又具有機會主義精神。我們最大的優勢之一就是在不確定的時期發現機會。

We feel we are well positioned to continue to build long-term value for our shareholders for the remainder of 2025 and beyond. I will now open the lines for the Q&A portion of today's call. Craig and Brian and I would be happy to respond to your questions.

我們認為，我們已做好準備，在 2025 年剩餘時間及以後繼續為股東創造長期價值。我現在將開始今天電話會議的問答環節。克雷格、布萊恩和我很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Michael Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 Michael Zaremski。

My first question is on the lender place business within Specialty Financial. I think that might be driving some of the continued healthy growth this quarter again. Maybe just zooming out, is there a way you could help us frame how to think about how that market grows in terms of -- does it follow mortgage delinquencies or a hard market for soft market dynamics? And then also just more color on kind of how it appears; you all have also gained maybe market share too, if you agree, within that business?

我的第一個問題是關於 Specialty Financial 內部的貸款業務。我認為這可能會再次推動本季持續的健康成長。也許只是縮小範圍，有沒有辦法幫助我們思考這個市場是如何成長的——它是否遵循抵押貸款拖欠或軟市場動態的硬市場？然後，再進一步說明一下它看起來是什麼樣的；如果您同意的話，你們在這個行業中可能也獲得了市場份額？

Thank you. The lender-placed property business is a business that has a smaller number of competitors, I believe. It's a business today -- last year was about $700 million in gross written premium. So a significant business for us. I think this business creates greater opportunities when you have a weak economy actually. And when people fall behind on their payments and don't pay their insurance, that's the primary -- from a cycle standpoint, that's primarily the case.

謝謝。我認為，貸款人主導的房地產業務是競爭對手較少的行業。如今，這已成為一門生意——去年，總保費收入約為 7 億美元。這對我們來說是一項重要的業務。我認為，當經濟疲軟時，這項業務實際上會創造更大的機會。當人們拖欠還款並且不支付保險費時，這是主要的——從週期的角度來看，主要就是這種情況。

It's a business that is made up of large accounts -- large client relationships with financial institutions that are significant. So if there's disruption in the market like there has been in the last year or two, where some competitors faltered and gave us opportunities, that also added to the momentum that we've had in growing this business over the past couple years.

這是一項由大帳戶組成的業務—與重要的金融機構建立大型客戶關係。因此，如果市場出現像過去一兩年那樣的混亂，一些競爭對手出現衰退並為我們帶來機會，這也會增強我們過去幾年業務成長的勢頭。

I think one other thing up until this year, we, as others in the property side, took some pretty significant rate on price. I think one other thing that's been wind behind our backs on this business has been the movement in our book of business going from unpaid mortgage -- insuring on the value of unpaid mortgage balance to move to replacement cost value, which a good part of the industry is moving towards.

我認為，截至今年還有一件事，我們和房地產領域的其他人一樣，在價格上取得了相當大的進展。我認為，在我們開展這項業務的過程中，另一件一直對我們不利的事情就是，我們的業務從未付抵押貸款——以未付抵押貸款餘額的價值為保險，轉向重置成本價值，而很大一部分行業正在朝著這個方向發展。

So I think as more and more of our clients and large accounts move to that, that definitely is helpful when you're getting more proper values for the business. Anything else? I tried to frame business --

因此，我認為，隨著越來越多的客戶和大客戶轉向這種方式，當您獲得更合適的業務價值時，這肯定會有所幫助。還要別的嗎？我試圖建構商業--

Carl, would the lender place also be excellent margins in the segment? Is that also what's driving the pricing power kind of to [decelerate]?

卡爾，貸款方在該領域的利潤率是否也會很高？這是否也是推動定價權的原因[減速]？

Yes. I think this business is very profitable for us, again, made up of large accounts. I think pricing in this business through six months is -- prices are up about 1%. The loss ratio trends are very low single digit in this business. And I think, again, the last thing I mentioned as far as a move from unpaid mortgage balance as a basis for premiums to move to replacement cost values, I think that helps offset the difference between the price increase and the loss ratio trend, if that makes sense.

是的。我認為這項業務對我們來說非常有利可圖，而且是由大客戶組成的。我認為六個月內該業務的定價是——價格上漲了約 1%。該行業的損失率趨勢非常低，僅為個位數。我認為，我最後提到的將保費基礎從未付抵押貸款餘額轉移到重置成本價值，這有助於抵消價格上漲和損失率趨勢之間的差異，如果這說得通的話。

Yes. That's helpful. My follow-up is pivoting to what I believe is some of the more social inflationary lines of business. You continue to kind of reference some non-renewals in certain lines. I'm assuming there's always obviously non-renewals going on, but you're calling it out because I think it's -- if I'm understanding correctly, it's still at a kind of higher than quote-unquote, normal level of what you'd -- what AFG would expect.

是的。這很有幫助。我的後續行動將轉向我認為更具社會通膨效應的一些業務領域。您繼續在某些方面提及一些不續約的情況。我假設顯然總是存在不續約的情況，但你之所以指出這一點，是因為我認為 — — 如果我理解正確的話，它仍然處於一種高於所謂的正常水平 — — AFG 所期望的水平。

I guess the goalpost is always moving a bit on loss cost inflation. But just kind of maybe broad brush, or if you want to talk about commercial auto versus some of these other housing and day care accounts, kind of where do you feel AFG is in terms of the remediation actions and kind of -- I think you did say pricing versus loss trend do you feel comfortable or good about. And that's my final question.

我猜想，損失成本膨脹的目標總是會有所變動。但可能只是一種寬泛的概括，或者如果您想談論商用汽車與其他一些住房和日托帳戶，您認為 AFG 在補救措施方面處於什麼位置 - 我認為您確實說過定價與損失趨勢讓您感到滿意或滿意。這是我的最後一個問題。

Yes, that's a complex question when you're in 36 businesses. But I'll take a crack at it. In our non-profit Specialty Human Services businesses, which we've referenced, it's kind of referenced two different kind of things, both housing and daycare accounts.

是的，當你經營 36 家企業時，這是一個複雜的問題。但我會嘗試一下。在我們提到的非營利專業人力服務業務中，它指的是兩種不同的東西，即住房和日托帳戶。

I think we pretty much have completed the non-renewal of the housing account effort, which if you think back to the $50 million comment quarters ago and all that, that was roughly probably $20 million of the $50 million or so. But I think we're pretty much through that. We no longer provide property or liability insurance for any low income or affordable housing accounts at this point.

我認為我們基本上已經完成了住房帳戶不續簽的工作，如果你回想一下幾個季度前 5000 萬美元的評論和所有這些，那大概就是 5000 萬美元中的 2000 萬美元左右。但我認為我們已經基本完成了。目前，我們不再為任何低收入或經濟適用住房帳戶提供財產或責任保險。

On the daycare side, I think we probably have maybe $9 million or $10 million left of business that we think will be finished non-renewing by year-end on the day care. We started that effort early this year and we feel that, that will be completed by year-end.

在日託方面，我認為我們可能還剩下 900 萬或 1000 萬美元的業務，我們認為到年底我們將完成日託業務的非續約。我們今年年初就開始了這項工作，我們認為，這項工作將在年底前完成。

We still are a big writer of YMCAs, which provide day care. So there are a certain number of agents that have great books of business in that area, and we kind of have specialized and focused on YMCA. And so we continue to write day care and with specific risks, but our -- a significant portion of our day care business that wasn't profitable, has been -- will be finished on the renewal -- non-renewal that by year-end.

我們仍然是提供日托服務的基督教青年會 (YMCA) 的主要撰稿人。因此，有一定數量的代理商在該地區擁有大量業務，而我們則專注於基督教青年會 (YMCA)。因此，我們繼續承接日託業務，並承擔特定風險，但我們日託業務中很大一部分尚未盈利，並且將在年底前完成續約。

I think one other thing in which we have talked about in this business [social services] (added by company after the call) and other businesses, we have been reducing umbrella capacity from $15 million to $5 million. We currently have about $20 million remaining in-force umbrellas over $5 million. I think by year-end, that will probably be zero. So those are the primary efforts in our non-profit business, which clearly has had a stronger social inflation exposure than a lot of our businesses. So those are the things going on there.

我認為，我們在這項業務[社會服務]（電話會議後公司補充道）和其他業務中討論過的另一件事是，我們已經將傘式保險容量從 1500 萬美元減少到 500 萬美元。目前，我們剩餘的有效保護傘金額約為 2,000 萬美元，其中 500 萬美元以上。我認為到年底這個數字可能會為零。這些就是我們非營利業務的主要努力，顯然，這些業務比我們的許多業務受到更大的社會通膨影響。這就是那裡發生的事情。

I think I've mentioned public sector. We write over pools. We're pretty much -- we've been through the process of increasing our retentions, and we're continuing to take rate there. But I think we're going to see some more opportunities in that area now that we're through that cycle.

我想我已經提到過公共部門。我們在池子裡寫作。我們基本上已經經歷了增加保留率的過程，我們將繼續提高保留率。但我認為，既然我們已經經歷了這個週期，我們將會在該領域看到更多的機會。

In the excess liability business, we're still -- in a couple of our business units, we're still taking mid-double-digit increases in price there. One thing I'd mention in the past is adjusting limits downward, moving limits up non-renewal of some accounts that have had higher commercial auto liability exposure and the underlying insured.

在超額責任險業務中，我們的幾個業務部門的價格仍然保持著中等兩位數的成長。我過去提到的一件事是向下調整限額，提高一些商業汽車責任風險較高且被保險人基礎的帳戶的續保限額。

I think in our Fortune 1000 business, my understanding is we're pretty much through that readjusting the book in our great American custom book, which is more focused on Fortune 1000. So I would expect us to see some opportunities, you know, now that, the adjustments and the limits profile that we want is done to see some growth opportunities there.

我認為，在我們的財富 1000 強企業中，我的理解是，我們基本上已經完成了對我們偉大的美國定製書籍的重新調整，該書籍更加側重於財富 1000 強企業。因此，我希望我們能夠看到一些機會，您知道，現在，我們想要的調整和限制概況已經完成，以便看到一些成長機會。

Commercial auto, not really in our Specialty Casualty business, you mentioned it, though. I think in the second quarter, we had healthy growth. And I think we're -- as we're continuing to outperform the industry by probably 8 points, we're still trying to get our commercial auto liability portion of that business to an underwriting profit. But that said, with the 15% price increase we're getting in commercial auto liability, we feel that we're beginning to see more opportunities.

雖然您提到過，商用汽車實際上並不屬於我們的專業傷亡業務。我認為第二季我們實現了健康成長。而且我認為，由於我們的表現持續超出產業水準 8 個百分點，我們仍在努力使商業汽車責任險業務部分實現承保利潤。但話雖如此，隨著商業汽車責任險價格上漲 15%，我們感覺開始看到更多機會。

And I think everybody has mentioned MGAs probably on the calls. We're aware of one MGA that may be dropping out of a particular part or segment of the commercial auto business, which we would see as an opportunity over the next six months or so. So, I hope that covered a few different subjects for you.

我認為每個人在電話會議中可能都提到了 MGAs。我們知道有一家 MGA 可能會退出商用汽車業務的某個特定部分或領域，我們認為這是未來六個月左右的一個機會。因此，我希望這能為您涵蓋幾個不同的主題。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

I think for the first question, I'd like to focus on the Inland Marine, Ocean Marine business and maybe the trade credit business too. And first of all, in Inland Marine and Ocean Marine, it feels like I'm hearing from some of the other specialty players that they see opportunities for growth in that business. And I guess what -- my question for you is how you're positioned for growth there?

對於第一個問題，我想重點討論內陸航運、遠洋航運業務，或許還有貿易信貸業務。首先，在內陸航運和遠洋航運領域，我感覺我從其他一些專業公司那裡聽說，他們看到了該業務的成長機會。我想問的是—您如何定位在那裡實現成長？

But there's marine cargo involved with the trade credit business. There's export and domestic trade involved. And as I'm thinking about your businesses, I'm just curious what the volatility and the tariffs might mean for that business in the interim until things settle out.

但貿易信貸業務涉及海運貨物。其中涉及出口和國內貿易。當我考慮你們的業務時，我很好奇在事情平息之前，波動和關稅對你們的業務可能意味著什麼。

Yes, Greg. We have a very nice Ocean Marine book of business, both here in the US and through our Singapore office. We write -- we have a very strong focus on Ocean Marine also. And our property and inland marine book is a nice business, not so much -- we're trying to focus more on more Inland Marine builders written -- marine coverages versus as some do, just large property placements.

是的，格雷格。我們在美國和新加坡辦事處都有非常出色的 Ocean Marine 業務記錄。我們寫道——我們也非常關注海洋海洋。我們的財產和內陸海運業務是一筆不錯的生意，但我們正試圖更多地關注內陸海運建築商撰寫的海運保險，而不是像某些人那樣只關注大型財產投保。

So -- but they've both been good businesses for us. Ocean Marine has provided some growth opportunities for us over the past couple of years. So I think we're pleased with that.

所以——但它們對我們來說都是很好的生意。在過去幾年裡，Ocean Marine 為我們提供了一些成長機會。所以我認為我們對此感到滿意。

As we've -- I think on the Property and Inland Marine side, the builder's risk, there hasn't been as many opportunities on the builders' risk side, I think, because of just where we are in the economy, whether it's tariff activity or not, I'm not sure. But that's probably acted as a little bit of a regulator on our Property & Inland Marine business as that builders risk and traditional Inland Marine products are kind of our focus. Those businesses have been, over a long period of time, been very profitable businesses for us also.

正如我們所認為的——在房地產和內陸航運方面，建築商的風險，建築商風險方面的機會並不多，我認為這是因為我們所處的經濟狀況，無論是不是關稅活動，我都不確定。但這可能對我們的財產和內陸航運業務起到了一點監管作用，因為建築商風險和傳統內陸航運產品是我們的重點。長期以來，這些業務也一直是我們非常有利可圖的業務。

Clearly, it's kind of hard to see exactly what the tariff impact is going to be. But clearly, Ocean and Inland Marine, as I've mentioned, I think, at the S&P conference, could be impacted due to lower shipping and cargo transport volumes. I'm not so sure we're really seeing anything right now. I think the bigger question is, as these tariff percents are completed country by country, then what happens. So that's my take at this point.

顯然，很難確切知道關稅會產生什麼影響。但顯然，正如我在標準普爾會議上提到的那樣，由於航運和貨物運輸量下降，遠洋和內陸航運可能會受到影響。我不太確定我們現在是否真的看到了什麼。我認為更大的問題是，當這些關稅百分比是逐一完成的，那麼會發生什麼。這就是我目前的看法。

Would you say the same thing about the trade credit business to as it relates to tariffs?

您對貿易信用業務與關稅的關係有相同的看法嗎？

Actually, our trade credit business is growing. I think there's been a little bit of hardening in that market. It's a very, very small specialty business for us. But yes, I do think, depending on who gets what tariff and what country, it could have some impact, probably more on the premium side at some point. But right now, if anything, we're seeing some growth there.

實際上，我們的貿易信貸業務正在成長。我認為該市場已經有些強硬了。對我們來說，這是一項非常小的專業業務。但是的，我確實認為，它可能會產生一些影響，取決於誰獲得什麼關稅以及在哪個國家，在某些時候可能對保費產生更大的影響。但目前，如果有的話，我們看到那裡有一些增長。

Perfect. I guess I want to go back to some of the comments you made in your opening remarks. And specifically, you talked about M&A. And it just -- I don't know if there's been a shift in market conditions, if you're seeing a bigger pipeline today than you were a year or two ago. But I feel like you're always in the market.

完美的。我想回顧一下您在開場白中提出的一些評論。具體來說，您談到了併購。而且——我不知道市場狀況是否發生了變化，你是否看到今天的管道比一兩年前更大。但我感覺你一直在市場上。

So when you mentioned it on the call, maybe there's something percolating or obviously -- I'm just curious for your perspectives on the M&A side of the equation because you called it out in the comments.

因此，當您在電話中提到這一點時，也許有些事情正在醞釀，或者顯然——我只是好奇您對併購方面的看法，因為您在評論中提到了這一點。

Sure. M&A is, it's a $100 million-type of business for us. It gets a little bit volatile based off of what the M&A environment is in this country in particular. This year is -- there seems to be quite a bit of activity. Last year was probably a lower amount of activity. And so the business was a smaller business this year. Though we've seen quite a bit of activity, and we have a very capable group of underwriters in this area. And we've done -- it's been a very profitable business for us.

當然。併購對我們來說是一項價值 1 億美元的業務。根據這個國家的具體併購環境來看，情況會變得有點不穩定。今年——似乎有相當多的活動。去年的活動量可能較少。因此今年的業務規模較小。儘管我們已經看到了相當多的活動，並且我們在這個領域擁有一群非常有能力的承銷商。我們已經做到了——這對我們來說是一項非常有利可圖的業務。

I think others have kind of strayed into some of the fringe higher risk parts of this business, which we haven't as much. And we're really kind of stuck pretty much on the representations and warranties and the tax indemnity and credit insurance aspects. And we have a good reputation. We're known for knowing the business well and being strong specialists in the area.

我認為其他人已經涉足該行業一些邊緣且風險較高的領域，而我們則沒有。我們實際上在陳述和保證以及稅收賠償和信用保險方面陷入了困境。而且我們享有良好的聲譽。我們因熟悉業務和成為該領域的專家而聞名。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

安德魯·安德森（Andrew Andersen），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

Hi, Yes. This is Sid on for Andrew. A crop peer gave an early indication that 2025 could be good to very good for crop profitability. And it sounded like in your prepared remarks, there are some positive indicators. So just curious if we should still be thinking about this year as an average year? Or is it still too early?

你好，是的。我是 Sid，代表 Andrew。一位農作物同行早期表示，2025 年農作物獲利能力可能會很好甚至非常好。聽起來您準備好的發言中有一些積極的跡象。所以我只是好奇我們是否仍該將今年視為平均年份？還是現在還太早？

You know, I think it's still too early for us to put our usual average below, average, above average kind of caption on it . But I think as you see what's on the commodity futures pricing, they remain in acceptable ranges relative to the spring discovery prices. I didn't see the final yesterday, but I believe corn is down about 14%, soybeans down a little under 6% on prices. The average deductible with farmers in our book of business that’s chosen up excluding the rainfall products, it will be about 20.5% we would project this year.

你知道，我認為現在就用我們通常的「低於平均」、「高於平均」之類的標題來形容它還為時過早。。但我認為，正如您所看到的商品期貨定價，它們相對於春季發現價格仍處於可接受的範圍內。我昨天沒有看到最終結果，但我認為玉米價格下跌了約 14%，大豆價格下跌了不到 6%。我們預計，今年我們業務中農民的平均扣除額（不包括雨水產品）將達到約 20.5%。

So you need losses or a combination of commodity price decrease and loss to exceed that first line of defense, which is the deductible that the farmers choose up. And then when you look at the most recent crop progress reports, the overall corn and soybean conditions are slightly better than last year at this time. There is some concern people have had about the excessive heat, but there's been so much moisture and adequate moisture to date that we don't think it's problematic to date.

因此，你需要損失或商品價格下跌和損失的組合來超過第一道防線，這是農民選擇的免賠額。然後，當您查看最新的作物生長報告時，您會發現玉米和大豆的整體狀況比去年同期略好。人們對於過熱的情況有些擔心，但到目前為止，這裡的濕度一直很高，而且水分充足，因此我們認為目前為止這不會造成問題。

But I think it's important that good moisture levels remain in August and through early September. So I might mention as part of the Big Beautiful Bill, there was actually an increased loss adjustment expense payment within states that have over 120% loss ratio. So actually, there was a nice adjustment improvement in the program due to the Big Beautiful Bill where in the LAE payment now is 6% versus an existing 1.5%.

但我認為，8 月和 9 月初保持良好的濕度水平非常重要。因此，我想提一下，作為《大美麗法案》的一部分，在損失率超過 120% 的州，損失調整費用支付實際上有所增加。因此，實際上，由於《美麗大法案》，該計劃有了很好的調整改進，其中 LAE 支付現在為 6%，而現有的為 1.5%。

So it's always nice. There's always some tweaks in a program down or that are slightly negative. But over time, it seems like, generally, there are more positive things that happen, and that's one of the most recent things. The Farm Bill, I think, has been extended until September of -- I think, through September of this year.

所以總是很好。程序中總是會有一些調整，或是稍微有些負面。但隨著時間的推移，似乎總體上會發生更多積極的事情，這是最近發生的事情之一。我認為，農業法案已延長至今年九月。

Okay. And then just pivoting, I think your workers' comp book is slightly skewed to specialty workers' comp. So just curious how the pricing environment is in that end of the market. And if you expect any positive momentum on the workers' comp front? And also I think California is the largest state for workers' comp for you. So just curious if you're seeing any different loss experience there.

好的。然後只是轉動，我認為你的工人補償書稍微偏向專業工人補償。所以只是好奇那個市場的定價環境如何。您預計工人補償方面會出現任何正面的勢頭嗎？而且我認為加州是工傷賠償金額最大的州。所以我只是好奇你是否在那裡看到了任何不同的失落經驗。

Well, first of all, California is only about 15% of our of our workers' comp business. I would think Florida probably would be the largest state. Workers' comp is about 13.5% of our overall gross written premium. Overall results continue to be -- for second quarter and six months continue to be excellent. Though the six months calendar year combined ratio is slightly higher than last year. Our National Interstate, the transportation-related workers' comp our Summit, which is Southeastern mainly, strategic comp, which is large deductible.

首先，加州僅占我們工傷賠償業務的 15% 左右。我認為佛羅裡達州可能是最大的州。工傷賠償約占我們整體毛承保保費的 13.5%。第二季和六個月的整體業績持續保持優異。儘管六個月的日曆年綜合比率略高於去年。我們的國家州際、與運輸相關的工人補償我們的峰會，主要是東南部的戰略補償，這是大額免賠額。

Those parts of our business have had a good calendar year and accident year underwriting results again this year. Republic, our California workers' comp is the one entity that has an underwriting loss in the second quarter.

我們業務的這些部分今年再次取得了良好的日曆年度和事故年度承保業績。共和國，我們的加州工人賠償公司是第二季唯一一家承保虧損的實體。

We feel we have a strong reserve position. As it relates to pricing, I think that was kind of what seemed to be your question. One thing I really like is, we're seeing a moderating price trend with workers' comp. Our pricing -- overall pricing in comp was down only about 1% in the second quarter of this year and six months. And in Florida, our largest state, I think the 1% decrease that was put into place in January of this year, that was the lowest decrease in seven years in the state of Florida.

我們覺得我們擁有強大的儲備地位。至於定價，我認為這似乎就是您的問題。我真正喜歡的一件事是，我們看到工人補償的價格趨勢正在緩和。我們的定價—今年第二季和六個月的整體定價僅下降了約 1%。而在我們最大的州佛羅裡達州，我認為今年 1 月實施的 1% 的降幅是佛羅裡達州七年來的最低降幅。

And in California, actually, we're achieving -- we achieved about 5% price increase in the second quarter that brings our pricing to 1% year-to-date. More importantly, California approved an 8.7% increase effective 9/1/25. That's the first hike in a decade.

實際上，在加州，我們在第二季度實現了約 5% 的價格上漲，這使得我們的定價在今年迄今上漲了 1%。更重要的是，加州批准了自 2025 年 9 月 1 日起生效的 8.7% 的增幅。這是十年來的首次升息。

Now it's needed. In an industry, California comp, the whole industry, I think the combined ratio is in the 120s. We have a more moderate underwriting loss. We've always generally performed better than the industry. But I really like what I'm seeing as far as the comp pricing environment. So it's still very competitive. But sure feels like a firming market is coming in California, in particular.

現在需要它了。在加州保險公司這個行業，整個行業，我認為綜合比率在 120 左右。我們的承保損失較為溫和。我們的表現總體上一直優於行業。但就同類定價環境而言，我真的很喜歡它。所以競爭還是很激烈的。但確實感覺市場正在逐漸走強，尤其是在加州。

Meyer Shields, Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods.

邁耶·希爾茲、基夫、布魯耶特和伍茲。

Carl could you give a little bit deeper into what you're seeing in terms of pricing and rate adequacy in professional lines. I'm asking because you sounded somewhat cautious, and we've heard a couple of other carriers talk about maybe green shoots are bottoming. And I just want to get your perspective on that, please.

卡爾，您能否更深入地介紹一下您在專業線路的定價和費率充足性方面所看到的情況。我之所以問這個問題，是因為您的語氣聽起來有些謹慎，而且我們也聽到其他幾家運營商談到，也許復甦的跡象正在觸底。我只是想聽聽您對此的看法。

Sure. Let me just -- from an overall macro perspective, we have good results in the second quarter and six months for our D&O business and our banking-related D&O product business, ABIS. It's a significant business for us, $400 million in D&O and ABIS. And if you include the other professional liability business we write, it's $0.5 billion-plus. Net written premiums are down in the second quarter and six months. We continue to see the public company business -- continues to be competitive. Although I would say I am enthusiastic about seeing -- I think the price on that business was only down 1.6% in the second quarter.

當然。從整體宏觀角度來看，我們的 D&O 業務和銀行相關 D&O 產品業務 ABIS 在第二季和六個月取得了良好的表現。對我們來說，這是一項重要的業務，D&O 和 ABIS 業務價值達 4 億美元。如果算上我們承保的其他專業責任業務，價值將超過 5 億美元。第二季和六個月的淨承保保費有所下降。我們繼續看到上市公司業務—繼續保持競爭力。儘管我會說我很高興看到——我認為該業務的價格在第二季度僅下降了 1.6%。

When you look at our overall D&O executive liability businesses, overall, our rates were actually flat in the second quarter and year-to-date 2025, and that's kind of what we expect for the whole year. But I'm very pleased to see the public company pricing level out some.

當您查看我們的整體 D&O 高階主管責任業務時，總體而言，我們的費率在第二季和 2025 年年初至今實際上是持平的，這也是我們對全年的預期。但我很高興看到上市公司的定價有所趨於穩定。

Now in our case, public D&O is only 15% of our D&O premium. So it's -- we're more opportunistic players in that part of the business. Our ABIS actually in our financial or related D&O and products, pricing was up about 4% through six months of this year. So yes, still competitive on public D&O, but certainly signs that it's stabilizing, particularly on primary policies. I hope that's helpful.

現在就我們的情況而言，公共 D&O 僅占我們 D&O 保費的 15%。所以，在這業務領域，我們比較像是機會主義的參與者。我們的 ABIS 實際上在我們的金融或相關 D&O 和產品中，價格在今年六個月內上漲了約 4%。所以是的，在公共 D&O 方面仍然具有競爭力，但肯定有跡象表明它正在穩定下來，特別是在主要政策方面。我希望這會有幫助。

It is very much so. And I just want to confirm because I'm trying to get my head around the impact of the earlier crop reporting. Should we think of some portion of the premium losses and related expenses that showed up last year in the third quarter as moving to the second quarter this year? Is that how that plays out?

確實如此。我只是想確認一下，因為我正在努力理解早期作物報告的影響。我們是否應該認為去年第三季出現的部分保費損失和相關費用將轉移到今年第二季？事情是這樣的嗎？

Hi Meyer, this is Brian. So the -- we'll start with the premium side. So on the premiums, for the full year, we would expect crop premiums to be slightly lower than last year just because commodity prices during the discovery period were lower this year than last year. But what's offsetting that in the second quarter is just the earlier planting and early reporting of acreage. So we would estimate that, that shift in premiums is about $100 million gross and $40 million net from -- when you're noting quarter-over-quarter.

你好，邁耶，我是布萊恩。那麼——我們將從高端開始。因此，就保費而言，就全年而言，我們預計農作物保費將略低於去年，因為今年發現期間的商品價格低於去年。但第二季抵銷這項影響的只是較早的播種和較早的播種面積報告。因此，我們估計，按季度計算，保費變化約為 1 億美元毛額和 4,000 萬美元淨額。

So that's the amount of premium that would have otherwise been reported in the third quarter, instead of in the second quarter because of the advanced reporting. So if you want to think about a flip between quarters on the top line, $40 million in net written premium is about that flip.

因此，由於提前報告，這些保費金額原本會在第三季報告，而不是在第二季報告。因此，如果你想考慮季度之間的收入變化，那麼 4000 萬美元的淨承保保費就與此變化有關。

Now on the profitability side, in our crop business, we tend to book close to zero profits in the second quarter. The only profit that would come through the second quarter would be kind of development from prior periods as the vast majority of our crops are still in the ground. So we tend to report most of the profitability in our crop business actually in the fourth quarter, a little bit in the third and then some in the fourth, and it may develop favorably into the next year.

現在就獲利能力方面而言，在我們的農作物業務中，我們在第二季的利潤往往接近零。由於我們的絕大多數農作物仍在地裡，因此第二季的唯一利潤將來自於前期的發展。因此，我們傾向於在第四季度報告農作物業務的大部分盈利能力，在第三季度報告一小部分盈利能力，然後在第四季度報告一些盈利能力，並且可能會在明年出現良好的發展。

So all else being equal, when you look at our numbers, you can think of our combined ratio and crop being kind of closer to 100% in the second quarter. And then if it's profitable, that tends to help our combined ratio look better in the fourth quarter, all things being equal. So there's no real impact on profits, but there is on the written premiums.

因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，當您查看我們的數字時，您可以認為我們第二季度的綜合比率和產量接近 100%。然後，如果它盈利，那麼在其他條件相同的情況下，這往往會幫助我們在第四季度的綜合比率看起來更好。因此，這對利潤沒有實際影響，但對已承保保費有影響。

Okay. That's helpful. But just take it one step further. That means that whatever the earned premium component of that $40 million that's producing a higher combined ratio than the rest of Property and Transportation, that's moved from the third quarter to the second quarter. So there's a little bit less of that 100% combined ratio earned premium in the third quarter. That's what I'm trying to get at for that segment.

好的。這很有幫助。但只需更進一步。這意味著，無論這 4000 萬美元中的哪個已賺保費部分產生了高於其他財產和運輸業務的綜合成本率，該部分都從第三季度轉移到了第二季度。因此，第三季 100% 綜合比率的保費收入略有減少。這就是我試圖在該部分錶達的意思。

And that's a little tricky just because we did in some of our earlier season products, the ones that were actually more earning in the first half of the year, we did have some growth there and some changes in how much we've ceded. So the earned premium is higher still -- is higher for other reasons also in the second quarter.

這有點棘手，因為我們在一些早先的季節產品中確實做到了，這些產品在上半年的收益實際上更高，我們確實取得了一些增長，並且在損失的金額上也發生了一些變化。因此，第二季賺取的保費仍然較高——也由於其他原因而較高。

So I would say, really the driver of profit recognition is going to be how the weather goes in the next couple of months and whether that pushes us to above average or average there or where that sits right now. As Carl said, the conditions look good, but we don't want to call that before too soon.

所以我想說，利潤確認的真正驅動力是未來幾個月的天氣狀況，以及這是否會推動我們達到平均水平以上或平均水平，或者目前處於什麼水平。正如卡爾所說，情況看起來不錯，但我們不想太早下結論。

Bob Farnam, Janney Montgomery Scott.

鮑伯法納姆、珍妮蒙哥馬利史考特。

Just a follow-up question on workers' comp. I've gotten some questions about undocumented workers. And I'm not sure if that really impacts the types of classes that you write. But the question was, do you -- have you seen or do you expect the industry to see any change in claim patterns as undocumented workers are swapped out for citizens or documented workers? And the thought being that undocumented workers don't really -- aren't thought to file workers' comp claims because they're worried about their immigration issues.

這只是一個關於工人補償的後續問題。我收到了一些關於無證工人的問題。我不確定這是否真的會影響您編寫的課程類型。但問題是，隨著無證工人被公民或有證工人取代，您是否看到或預期該行業的索賠模式會發生任何變化？人們認為，無證工人實際上不會——不會提出工傷賠償申請，因為他們擔心移民問題。

This is Brian. So when we insure our companies, we're insuring for any of the workers, whether they're undocumented or not and would pay any claims that come through. So if you're asking as undocumented workers maybe are reduced and more are replaced by documented workers, whether that will have an impact or not. We're not seeing anything yet. We will continue to pay all the claims that we owe and collect the right premiums for the payrolls that are in place regardless of whether they're documented or undocumented.

這是布萊恩。因此，當我們為公司投保時，我們為所有工人提供保險，無論他們是否是無證工人，並且會支付任何索賠。因此，如果您問的是，無證工人的數量可能會減少，而更多的工人將被有證工人所取代，這是否會產生影響。我們還沒有看到任何東西。我們將繼續支付所有欠款，並根據現有的薪資單收取正確的保費，無論這些薪資單是否有記錄。

Yes. No, the question was the thought is -- the undocumented workers don't even file claims because they're worried about it. So is that -- are you expecting maybe an increase in reported claims as those workers are replaced with documented workers? That was the question.

是的。不，問題在於人們的想法是——無證工人甚至沒有提出索賠，因為他們對此感到擔憂。那麼，隨著這些工人被有證工人取代，您是否預計報告的索賠數量可能會增加？這就是問題所在。

Yes. At the moment, we're not expecting that, but it's obviously something we'll keep an eye on as we price our business and set reserves going forward.

是的。目前，我們還沒有預料到這一點，但在我們為業務定價並設定儲備金時，我們顯然會密切關注這一點。

Okay. And so I have some questions on the excess liability business. You've had modest adverse development over the last several quarters. Is that related to any particular accident years or particular lines of business or classes of business. I'm just kind of curious if what you saw this quarter? Is it similar to what you saw in for most of last year and in the first quarter this year?

好的。所以我對超額責任業務有一些疑問。過去幾個季度，你們的發展略有不利。這是否與特定事故年份或特定業務線或業務類別有關？我只是有點好奇您本季看到了什麼？這與您去年大部分時間和今年第一季看到的情況相似嗎？

This is Brian. So I think first, it's important to remember that overall, our reserves continue to develop favorably, and we had $11 million in net favorable development in the quarter. So when you look at the Casualty Group, there is $10 million of adverse development there. And that is driven by adverse severity in parts of our social inflation exposed businesses, particularly the excess and surplus that you mentioned and also in our non-profit social services businesses.

這是布萊恩。因此我認為首先，重要的是要記住，總體而言，我們的儲備繼續保持良好發展，本季我們的淨有利發展額為 1,100 萬美元。因此，當你看看傷亡集團時，你會發現那裡有 1000 萬美元的不利發展。這是由於我們的部分受社會通膨影響的業務嚴重惡化所致，特別是您提到的過剩和盈餘，以及我們的非營利社會服務業務。

In those businesses where we saw an uptick in settlements, we adjusted our case reserves for known claims, and we did increase IBNR for similar potential liabilities out there. So the claims in the social inflation exposed business can be lumpy. So when you look at the adverse development by accident year, it really is spread over a lot of different years.

在那些我們發現和解金額上升的業務中，我們調整了已知索賠的案件準備金，並且確實增加了類似潛在負債的 IBNR。因此，受社會通膨影響的業務的債權可能會不穩定。因此，當您查看意外年份的不利發展時，它確實分佈在許多不同的年份。

So it's no one big thing or one big year. It's just little amounts over several years. You may also see in our current accident year picks, we prudently increased some of those for the same reasons. So we're constantly trying to learn from what we see and testing both our loss picks and pricing, in relatively real time so that we can maintain or improve our good results.

所以這不是一件大事，也不是一個大年。這只是幾年來少量的成果。您可能還會看到，在我們當前的事故年份選擇中，我們出於同樣的原因謹慎地增加了其中一些。因此，我們不斷嘗試從所見事物中學習，並相對即時地測試我們的損失選擇和定價，以便我們能夠保持或改善良好的結果。

Right. Okay. Do you write the primary layers on that excess liability book? Or is that third parties that write the primary layers?

正確的。好的。您是否在那本超額責任險保單上寫下了主要內容？還是第三方寫了主要層？

Where we're seeing the adverse development is mostly coming out of the ones where we are writing the excess layers.

我們看到的不利發展大多來自於我們所寫的過多層。

Were you writing the primary layers as well?

您也寫了主要層嗎？

No.

不。

Michael Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 Michael Zaremski。

My question is on the previous $10.50 '25 guide. Obviously, the Street is lower due partially to the first quarter investment returns. I guess my question is focused on the maybe the year-to-date reserve releases of about 1 point -- down 65% approximately year-over-year. Still obviously a very good guide releases, great to see. Would you be able to share whether that reserve release ratio is better or worse in line with what you had contemplated when putting a guide together, the $10.50 guide?

我的問題是關於之前的 10.50 美元 '25 指南。顯然，華爾街的下跌部分是由於第一季的投資回報。我想我的問題集中在年初至今的儲備釋放量大約 1 個百分點上——年減約 65%。顯然，仍然發布了非常好的指南，很高興看到。您能否分享一下，根據您在製定指南（10.50 美元指南）時所考慮的情況，該儲備釋放率是更好還是更差？

With so many different lines of business and products, it's really hard to say. I think if you remember, we talked about when we gave our business plan assumptions at the beginning of the year, we did talk about an expectation of lower levels of favorable development. Now all the reasons behind that are not necessarily being exactly what we thought in the beginning.

由於業務線和產品種類繁多，因此很難說。我想如果你還記得的話，我們在年初給出商業計劃假設時確實談到了對較低水平有利發展的預期。現在，背後的所有原因並不一定與我們最初所想的完全一樣。

But we did anticipate, and I think, hopefully did share that we thought that some of the favorable development we would have been seeing would diminish a bit, and that we're optimistic about improvements in the accident year ex-cats loss ratio, which we did see improvements other than where we were more prudent on some of the social inflation expense businesses.

但我們確實預料到，我想，我們也確實分享了我們認為我們原本會看到的一些有利發展會有所減弱，並且我們對事故年度不包括貓損失率的改善持樂觀態度，除了我們對一些社會通脹費用業務更加謹慎之外，我們確實看到了改善。

So I think overall, it's pretty much in line with what we were expecting but not necessarily business unit by business unit, but within a range, I'd say, yes.

所以我認為總體而言，這基本上符合我們的預期，但不一定是針對每個業務部門，但在一定範圍內，我想說，是的。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Diane for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我想請黛安做最後發言。

Thank you all for joining us this morning and for the great discussion and good questions. We look forward to talking with you all next quarter when we share results for the third quarter. I hope you have a great day.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們，並進行精彩的討論和提出好的問題。我們期待下個季度與大家交流，分享第三季的業績。祝您有個愉快的一天。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝大家參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。