American Financial Group Inc (AFG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to American Financial Group’s 2024 quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加美國金融集團 2024 年季度業績電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Diane Weidner. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給黛安·韋德納 (Diane Weidner)。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to American Financial Group's fourth quarter 2024 earnings results conference call. We released our 2024 fourth quarter and full year results yesterday afternoon. Our press release, investor supplement, and webcast presentation are posted on AFG's website under the Investor Relations section. These materials will be referenced during portions of today's call.

早安，歡迎參加美國金融集團 2024 年第四季收益業績電話會議。我們昨天下午發布了 2024 年第四季和全年業績。我們的新聞稿、投資者補充資料和網路廣播簡報均發佈在 AFG 網站的「投資者關係」部分。這些資料將在今天的電話會議的部分內容中被引用。

I'm joined this morning by Carl Lindner III and Craig Lindner, Co-CEOs of American Financial Group, and Brian Hertzman, AFG's CFO. Before I turn the discussion over to Carl, I would like to draw your attention to the notes on slide 2 of our webcast. Some of the matters to be discussed today are forward-looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results and/or financial condition to differ materially from these statements. A detailed description of these risks and uncertainties can be found in AFG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are also available on our website. We may include references to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure, in our remarks or responses to questions. A reconciliation of net earnings to core net operating earnings is included in our earnings release.

今天早上與我一起參加會議的還有美國金融集團聯席執行長卡爾‧林德納三世 (Carl Lindner III) 和克雷格‧林德納 (Craig Lindner)，以及美國金融集團財務長布萊恩‧赫茲曼 (Brian Hertzman)。在我將討論交給卡爾之前，我想請大家注意我們網路廣播第二張投影片上的註解。今天要討論的一些問題具有前瞻性。這些前瞻性陳述涉及某些風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果和/或財務狀況與這些陳述有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性的詳細描述可以在 AFG 提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中找到，該文件也可在我們的網站上找到。在我們的評論或對問題的回答中，我們可能會提到核心淨營業利潤（非公認會計準則財務指標）。我們的收益報告中包含了淨收益與核心淨營業收益的對帳。

And finally, if you're reading a transcript of this call, please note that it may not be authorized or reviewed for accuracy, and as a result, it may contain factual or transcription errors that could materially alter the intent or meaning of our statements.

最後，如果您正在閱讀本次通話的記錄，請注意，它可能未經授權或準確性審查，因此，它可能包含事實或轉錄錯誤，可能會實質地改變我們聲明的意圖或含義。

Now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Carl Lindner III to discuss our results.

現在我很高興將電話轉給卡爾林德納三世來討論我們的結果。

Good morning. As we begin our remarks, it's important to acknowledge that our thoughts and prayers continue to include those who have been impacted by the devastation caused by the wildfires in Southern California. We're grateful to our claims professionals and insurance specialists who are helping our policyholders recover, restore their businesses, and rebuild their communities.

早安.當我們開始發言時，我們必須承認，我們的思念和祈禱始終包括那些受到南加州野火破壞影響的人們。我們感謝我們的理賠專業人員和保險專家，他們幫助我們的保單持有人恢復、恢復他們的業務並重建他們的社區。

Now turning to our results, I'll begin by sharing a few highlights of AFG's 2024 fourth quarter and full year results, after which Craig and I will walk through more details. We'll then open it up for Q&A, where Craig, Brian, and I would be happy to respond to your questions.

現在談談我們的業績，我將首先分享 AFG 2024 年第四季和全年業績的一些亮點，然後 Craig 和我將詳細介紹。然後我們將進入問答環節，Craig、Brian 和我很樂意回答你們的問題。

The fourth quarter was a strong ending to a great year for AFG. In addition to producing an annual core operating return on equity in excess of 19% in 2024, net written premiums grew by 7% during the year, and we continued to create value for our shareholders through effective capital management. Our compelling mix of specialty insurance businesses, entrepreneurial culture, disciplined operating philosophy, and an astute team of in-house investment professionals collectively have enabled us to outperform many of our peers over time. Craig and I thank God, our talented management team, and our great employees for helping us to achieve these results.

對 AFG 來說，第四季的業績為豐收的一年畫上了圓滿的句點。除了在 2024 年實現超過 19% 的年度核心營運股本回報率外，淨承保保費在年內增長了 7%，我們繼續透過有效的資本管理為股東創造價值。我們擁有專業保險業務、創業文化、嚴謹的經營理念以及精明的內部投資專業團隊等眾多優勢，長期以來，我們的表現優於許多同行。克雷格和我感謝上帝、感謝我們才華洋溢的管理團隊和優秀的員工幫助我們取得這些成績。

I'll now turn the discussion over to Craig to walk us through some of these details.

現在我將討論交給 Craig，讓他向我們介紹其中的一些細節。

Thanks, Carl. As you will see on slide, 3 AFG's core net operating earnings were $10.75 per share for the full year 2024, generating a core operating return on equity of 19.3%. This ROE is calculated using an average of the five most recent quarter end balances of shareholders' equity, excluding AOCI.

謝謝，卡爾。正如您在幻燈片中看到的，3 AFG 2024 年全年的核心淨營業利潤為每股 10.75 美元，核心營業股本回報率為 19.3%。該 ROE 是使用最近五個季度的股東權益期末餘額（不包括 AOCI）的平均值計算得出的。

As Carl noted, capital management is one of our highest priorities. Returning capital to our shareholders is an important component of our capital management strategy and reflects our strong financial position and our confidence in AFG's financial future. We returned $791 million to shareholders during 2024, including $545 million or $6.50 per share in special dividends and $246 million in regular common stock dividends. Dividend payments and share repurchases totaled $6.3 billion over the last five years, including $50 per share in special dividends since the beginning of 2021, and our quarterly dividend was increased by 12.7% to an annual rate of $3.20 per share beginning in October of 2024. Growth in book value per share excluding AOCI plus dividends was 19.6% in 2024. We're proud of the value we've created for shareholders over time.

正如卡爾所說，資本管理是我們最優先考慮的事情之一。向股東返還資本是我們資本管理策略的重要組成部分，反映了我們強勁的財務狀況和對 AFG 財務未來的信心。2024 年，我們向股東返還了 7.91 億美元，其中包括 5.45 億美元或每股 6.50 美元的特別股息以及 2.46 億美元的常規普通股股息。過去五年，股息支付和股票回購總額達到 63 億美元，其中包括自 2021 年初以來的每股 50 美元的特別股息，自 2024 年 10 月開始，我們的季度股息增加了 12.7%，達到每股 3.20 美元的年率。2024 年不包括 AOCI 加上股利的每股帳面價值成長率為 19.6%。我們為長期以來為股東創造的價值感到自豪。

As Carl noted, we closed out the year with a strong fourth quarter. As you'll see on slides 4 and 5, fourth quarter 2024 core net operating earnings per share of $3.12 produced an annualized fourth quarter core return on equity of 21.9%.

正如卡爾所說，我們以強勁的第四季結束了這一財年。正如您在投影片 4 和 5 中看到的，2024 年第四季核心每股淨營業收益為 3.12 美元，第四季核心股本年化報酬率為 21.9%。

Now, I'd like to turn to an overview of AFG's investment performance and financial position and share a few comments about AFG's capital and liquidity. The details surrounding our $15.9 billion dollar investment portfolio are presented on slides 6 and 7. Looking at results for the fourth quarter, property and casualty net investment income was approximately 21% higher than the comparable 2023 period as a result of improved returns on alternative investments and the impact of strong reinvestment rate opportunities and higher balances of invested assets.

現在，我想概述 AFG 的投資績效和財務狀況，並對 AFG 的資本和流動性分享一些評論。第 6 頁和第 7 頁展示了我們 159 億美元投資組合的詳細資訊。從第四季的業績來看，由於另類投資回報率提高、強勁的再投資利率機會和投資資產餘額增加的影響，財產和意外險淨投資收入比 2023 年同期高出約 21%。

For the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, P&C net investment income was $784 million, approximately 8% higher than 2023, and a new record for AFG. Excluding alternative investments, net investment income in our P&C insurance operations for 2024 increased 11% year-over-year.

截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的十二個月內，P&C 淨投資收入為 7.84 億美元，比 2023 年高出約 8%，創下了 AFG 的新紀錄。不包括另類投資，我們 2024 年的財產和意外保險業務淨投資收入年增 11%。

As you'll see on slide 7, approximately 66% of our portfolio is invested in fixed maturities. In the current interest rate environment, we're able to invest in fixed maturity securities at yields of approximately 5.75%. Current reinvestment rates compare favorably to the 5% yield earned on fixed maturities in our P&C portfolio during the fourth quarter of 2024. The duration of our P&C fixed maturity portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents, was 2.8 years at December 31, 2024.

正如您在第 7 張投影片上看到的，我們的投資組合中約有 66% 投資於固定期限的債券。在當前利率環境下，我們能夠以約 5.75% 的收益率投資固定期限證券。目前的再投資利率與 2024 年第四季我們財產和意外保險投資組合中固定期限債券的 5% 收益率相比具有優勢。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們的財產和意外固定期限投資組合（包括現金和現金等價物）的期限為 2.8 年。

The annualized return on alternative investments in our P&C portfolio was approximately 4.9% for the 2024 fourth quarter, compared to 0.8% for the prior year quarter. Our business plan for 2025 assumes an 8% return on alternative investments. Longer term, we continue to remain optimistic regarding the prospects of attractive returns from our alternative investment portfolio, with an expectation of annual returns averaging 10% or better.

2024 年第四季度，我們財產和意外傷害投資組合中另類投資的年化報酬率約為 4.9%，去年同期為 0.8%。我們的 2025 年商業計劃假設另類投資的報酬率為 8%。從長遠來看，我們繼續對另類投資組合的可觀回報前景保持樂觀，預計年平均回報率將達到 10% 或更高。

Please turn to slide 8, where you'll find a summary of AFG's financial position at December 31, 2024. During the quarter, we returned $404 million to our shareholders through the payment of a $4.00 per share special dividend in November and our regular $0.80 per share quarterly dividend. AFG ended the year in a strong capital position, and we expect our operations to continue to generate significant excess capital in 2025, which provides ample opportunity for acquisitions, special dividends, or share repurchases. We evaluate the best alternatives for capital deployment including the timing and amount of special dividends on a quarterly basis. Our current capital position and expectations give us the flexibility to pay a special dividend in the first half of the year.

請翻到第 8 張投影片，您將在其中找到 AFG 截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的財務狀況摘要。在本季度，我們透過 11 月支付每股 4.00 美元的特別股息和每股 0.80 美元的常規季度股息，向股東返還了 4.04 億美元。AFG 在年底擁有強勁的資本狀況，我們預計我們的營運將在 2025 年繼續產生大量過剩資本，這為收購、特別股息或股票回購提供了充足的機會。我們按季度評估資本配置的最佳方案，包括特別股利的時間和金額。我們目前的資本狀況和預期使我們能夠靈活地在上半年支付特別股息。

We continue to view total value creation, as measured by growth in book value per share plus dividends, as an important measure of performance over the long term. For the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2024, AFG's growth in book value per share excluding AOCI plus dividends was 5.4% and 19.6%, respectively. Our strong operating results, coupled with effective capital management and our entrepreneurial, opportunistic culture and disciplined operating philosophy, enable us to continue to create value for our shareholders.

我們持續將總價值創造（以每股帳面價值加上股利的成長來衡量）視為長期績效的重要衡量標準。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的三個月和十二個月，AFG 的每股帳面價值（不包括 AOCI 加上股息）分別增加 5.4% 和 19.6%。我們強勁的經營業績，加上有效的資本管理、創業精神和機會主義文化以及嚴謹的經營理念，使我們能夠持續為股東創造價值。

I'll now turn the call over to Carl to discuss the results of our P&C operations and our business plan assumptions for 2025.

現在，我將把電話轉給卡爾，討論我們的 P&C 營運結果以及 2025 年的業務計劃假設。

Thank you, Craig. Please turn to slides 9 and 10 of the webcast, which include an overview of our fourth quarter results. Our Property and Transportation, Specialty Casualty, and Specialty Financial groups, as well as AFG overall, reported fourth quarter calendar year combined ratios below 90%. In addition to these strong underwriting margins, we're finding opportunities to grow through new business opportunities, a continued favorable pricing environment and increased exposures. Nearly all the businesses in our diversified Specialty Property and Casualty portfolio continue to meet or exceed targeted returns, and we set new records for premium production in 2024.

謝謝你，克雷格。請參閱網路廣播的第 9 和 10 頁投影片，其中包含我們第四季業績的概述。我們的財產和運輸、特殊意外險、特殊金融集團以及 AFG 整體報告稱，第四季度的綜合比率低於 90%。除了這些強勁的核保利潤率外，我們還在透過新的業務機會、持續有利的定價環境和增加的風險敞口來尋找成長機會。我們多元化專業財產和意外保險組合中的幾乎所有業務都繼續達到或超過目標回報，並且我們在 2024 年創下了保費收入的新紀錄。

As you'll see on slide 9, our Specialty Property and Casualty businesses reported a strong finish to a successful year, with an overall 89.0% combined ratio in the fourth quarter of 2024, albeit 1.3 points higher than the 87.7% reported in the prior year fourth quarter. Results for the 2024 fourth quarter include 1.1 points of catastrophe losses, primarily the result of Hurricane Milton, compared to 1.4 points in the 2023 fourth quarter and 1.8 points of adverse prior year development, compared to 3.3 points of favorable prior year development in the fourth quarter of 2023.

正如您在投影片 9 上看到的，我們的專業財產和意外險業務報告了成功的一年，2024 年第四季的整體綜合比率為 89.0%，儘管比去年同期的 87.7% 高出 1.3 個百分點。2024 年第四季的結果包括 1.1 個點的災難損失，主要是由於颶風米爾頓造成的，而 2023 年第四季為 1.4 個點，去年同期的不利發展為 1.8 個點，而 2023 年第四季的有利發展為 3.3 個點。

We are pleased to report $70 million in overall favorable prior year reserve development in our Specialty P&C businesses for the full year. Adverse prior year development in some of the social inflation-exposed businesses within our Specialty Casualty Group led to the overall adverse development in the fourth quarter for that Group and for AFG overall. This reserve strengthening is consistent with the commentary we've shared throughout 2024. We continued to have a good amount of favorable development from our workers' compensation businesses in the fourth quarter of 2024.

我們很高興地報告，我們的特殊財產險和意外險業務全年整體儲備金增長良好，達到 7,000 萬美元。我們特殊意外險集團內部分受社會通膨影響的業務去年表現不佳，導致該集團乃至整個 AFG 第四季的整體表現不佳。儲備的加強與我們在 2024 年全年分享的評論一致。2024 年第四季度，我們的工人賠償業務持續取得良好發展。

In the fourth quarter, the favorable development in workers' comp was more than offset by adverse development in our social inflation-exposed umbrella and excess liability businesses. The adverse development reflects higher than previously anticipated severity across several accident years. For the full year 2024, the Casualty Group reported $10 million in net favorable prior year development, as net favorable development from our workers' comp businesses was substantially offset by adverse development in our social inflation-exposed umbrella and excess liability and social services businesses. This was primarily due to higher than previously anticipated severity across several accident years.

在第四季度，工人補償的有利發展被我們受到社會通膨影響的傘式責任業務和超額責任業務的不利發展所抵消。不利的發展反映出事故發生的幾年中嚴重程度高於先前預期。2024 年全年，意外險集團報告上年淨利潤增長 1000 萬美元，因為我們的工傷補償業務的淨盈利增長被受社會通脹影響的綜合責任險和超額責任險以及社會服務業務的不利發展大幅抵消。這主要是因為幾年來事故的嚴重程度高於先前預期。

We continue to feel confident in the strength of our reserves and remain relentless in our focus on rate adequacy. Our insurance professionals are working collaboratively across our own operations and across the industry to address this. I'm pleased that despite the adverse development, the businesses in our Specialty Casualty Group reported a combined ratio of below 90% for the fourth quarter and for the full year of 2024.

我們對我們的儲備實力繼續充滿信心，並將繼續堅持不懈地關注利率充足性。我們的保險專業人員正在整個營運過程中以及整個產業內通力合作來解決這個問題。我很高興，儘管情況不利，但我們特殊意外險集團的業務報告第四季和 2024 年全年的綜合比率均低於 90%。

For this group of long-tailed lines of business, that equates to a return on equity of around 30%. So overall, this is an enviable result given the pressures of social inflation on some of these businesses.

對於這組長尾業務來說，這相當於約 30% 的股本報酬率。總體而言，考慮到部分企業面臨社會通膨壓力，這是一個令人羨慕的成績。

Fourth quarter 2024 gross and net written premiums were up 3% and 1%, respectively, when compared to the same period in 2023. Gross and net written premiums increased 9% and 7%, respectively, for the full year in 2024. Average renewal pricing across our Property and Casualty Group, excluding our workers' comp business, was up 8% in the fourth quarter, and up 7% approximately overall. Both measures were in line with renewal rates in the previous quarter. We have reported overall renewal rate increases for 34 consecutive quarters, and we believe we're achieving overall renewal rate increases in excess of prospective loss ratio trends to meet or exceed targeted returns.

與 2023 年同期相比，2024 年第四季的毛承保保費和淨承保保費分別增加 3% 和 1%。2024 年全年毛承保保費和淨承保保費分別增加 9% 和 7%。我們財產和意外險集團（不包括工傷補償業務）的平均續保價格在第四季度上漲了 8%，整體上漲了約 7%。這兩項指標與上一季的續約率一致。我們已經連續 34 個季度報告整體續保率上漲，我們相信，我們實現的整體續保率漲幅超過了預期的損失率趨勢，從而達到或超過了目標回報。

Now I'd like to turn to slide 10 to review a few highlights from each of our Specialty Property and Casualty business groups. Details are included in our earnings release, so I'll focus on summary results here.

現在，我想翻到第 10 張投影片來回顧我們各個專業財產和意外險業務組的一些亮點。詳細資訊包含在我們的收益報告中，因此在這裡我將重點介紹摘要結果。

The businesses in the Property and Transportation Group achieved a strong 89.2% calendar year combined ratio overall in the fourth quarter of 2024, an improvement of 1.1 points over the 90.3% reported in the comparable 2023 period. The improvement was attributable to higher year-over-year underwriting profitability in our crop insurance operations.

2024 年第四季度，財產和運輸集團的業務總體實現了 89.2% 的強勁日曆年綜合比率，比 2023 年同期的 90.3% 提高了 1.1 個百分點。這項改善歸功於我們農作物保險業務的承保獲利能力年增。

Coming into the fourth quarter, we were optimistic about the potential for an above-average crop year in 2024. While decreases in commodity pricing throughout the growing season were generally within insureds’ deductibles, the impact of abnormally dry conditions in certain states reduced yields, particularly soybean yields, from what industry models were projecting, and this resulted in an average crop year for AFG.

進入第四季度，我們對 2024 年農作物產量高於平均水平的可能性持樂觀態度。雖然整個生長季節商品價格的下降一般都在投保人的免賠額範圍內，但某些州異常乾旱的影響導致產量下降，特別是大豆產量低於行業模型的預測，導致 AFG 的農作物年份收成與往年持平。

Fourth quarter 2024 gross and net written premiums in this group were both down 6% from the comparable prior year period. The decrease was primarily due to the impact of lower year-over-year commodity pricing on winter wheat premiums, coupled with elevated pricing competition and the non-renewal of certain underperforming accounts in our transportation businesses. Overall renewal rates in this group increased 7% on average in the fourth quarter of 2024, in line with pricing the previous quarter. Pricing for the full year for this group was up 8% overall. We continue to remain focused on rate adequacy, particularly in our commercial auto line of business. where rates were up approximately 20% in the fourth quarter. This is our 13th year of rate increases in this line.

2024 年第四季度，該集團的毛承保保費和淨承保保費均較去年同期下降 6%。下降主要由於商品價格年減對冬小麥溢價的影響，加上價格競爭加劇，以及我們運輸業務中某些表現不佳的帳戶沒有續簽。2024 年第四季度，該類別的整體續約率平均上漲 7%，與上一季的價格一致。該集團全年價格總體上漲了 8%。我們將繼續關注利率充足性，特別是在我們的商業汽車業務領域。第四季利率上漲約20%。這是我們第 13 年提高該線路的費率。

The businesses in our Specialty Casualty Group achieved a very strong 89.0% calendar year combined ratio overall in the fourth quarter, 4.4 points higher than the excellent 84.6% reported in the comparable period in 2023. Higher year-over-year underwriting profits in our targeted markets business were more than offset by lower underwriting profit in our excess liability, workers' compensation, and executive liability businesses. Underwriting profitability in our workers' compensation and executive liability businesses continues to be excellent despite the lower year-over-year profitability in these businesses.

我們特殊意外險集團的業務在第四季度實現了非常強勁的 89.0% 的年度綜合比率，比 2023 年同期報告的 84.6% 的優異比率高出 4.4 個百分點。我們目標市場業務的承保利潤年增，但被超額責任險、工傷賠償險和高階主管責任險業務的承保利潤下降所抵銷。儘管工傷賠償和高階主管責任險業務的獲利能力同比有所下降，但承保獲利能力仍保持優異。

Fourth quarter 2024 gross and net written premiums increased 5% and 4%, respectively, when compared to the same prior year period. The primary drivers of growth were new business opportunities and favorable renewal pricing in several of our targeted markets businesses and our excess and surplus lines business.

與去年同期相比，2024 年第四季的毛承保保費和淨承保保費分別增加了 5% 和 4%。成長的主要動力是我們多個目標市場業務以及超額和剩餘線路業務中的新業務機會和優惠的續約定價。

Our mergers and acquisition business also benefited from an increase in M&A activity. This growth was tempered by lower year-over-year workers' compensation premiums. Excluding workers' comp, fourth quarter gross and net written premiums in this group both grew 8% year-over-year. Excluding our workers' comp businesses, renewal rates for this group were approximately up 11% in the fourth quarter, an improvement of about one point from the previous quarter. Pricing in this group, including workers' comp, was up 8%, in line with the third quarter.

我們的併購業務也受惠於併購活動的增加。這一增長因工人賠償保險費同比下降而受到抑制。除工傷補償外，該集團第四季的毛承保保費和淨承保保費均比去年同期增加了 8%。不包括我們的工傷補償業務，該集團的續約率在第四季度上漲了約 11％，比上一季提高了約一個百分點。包括工傷補償在內的該類別價格上漲了 8%，與第三季持平。

For the full year, pricing in this group excluding comp was 9%. I am pleased that we continued to achieve renewal rate increases of 10% or better during the quarter in several of our social inflation-exposed businesses, including our social services, excess liability, and public entity businesses.

就全年而言，該集團不包括同店銷售額的定價為 9%。我很高興，本季度，我們幾個受到社會通膨影響的業務，包括社會服務、超額責任和公共實體業務，的續保率繼續實現 10% 或更高的成長。

The Specialty Financial Group continued to achieve excellent underwriting margins and reported an outstanding 80.7% combined ratio for the fourth quarter of 2024, an improvement of six-tenths of a point over the prior year period. Fourth quarter 2024 gross and net premiums were up 11% and 12%, respectively, when compared to the prior year period, due primarily to the growth in our financial institutions business. Renewal pricing in this group was up 3% in the fourth quarter and up 6% for the full year.

特殊金融集團繼續實現優異的承保利潤率，並報告 2024 年第四季的綜合比率達到 80.7%，較去年同期提高了六個百分點。與去年同期相比，2024 年第四季的毛保費和淨保費分別成長了 11% 和 12%，這主要歸功於我們金融機構業務的成長。該類別的續約價格在第四季度上漲了 3%，全年上漲了 6%。

Now as we look to 2025, in lieu of providing formal earnings guidance, we have provided several key assumptions underlying our 2025 business plan, which you'll see summarized on slide 11. These assumptions for 2025 include growth in net written premiums of 5% from the $7.1 billion reported last year, a combined ratio of approximately 92.5%, a reinvestment rate of approximately 5.75%, and an annual return of approximately 8% on our $2.7 billion portfolio of alternative investments.

現在，當我們展望 2025 年時，我們沒有提供正式的獲利指引，而是提供了 2025 年業務計劃背後的幾個關鍵假設，您可以在投影片 11 中看到這些假設的總結。對 2025 年的這些假設包括：淨承保保費在去年報告的 71 億美元的基礎上增長 5%、綜合比率約為 92.5%、再投資率約為 5.75%，以及 27 億美元另類投資組合的年回報率約為 8%。

We expect that performance in line with these assumptions would result in core net operating earnings per share of approximately $10.50 in 2025 and generate a core operating return on equity excluding AOCI of approximately 18%.

我們預計，按照這些假設行事的業績將導致 2025 年每股核心淨營業收益達到約 10.50 美元，並產生不包括 AOCI 的核心營業股本回報率約 18%。

Our estimate for losses related to the Southern California wildfires, based on what we know currently, is $60 million to $70 million, acknowledging that this remains a developing situation. This range is embedded in our 2025 assumptions.

根據我們目前掌握的情況，我們估計南加州野火造成的損失為 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元，並且情況仍在不斷發展中。該範圍已包含在我們對 2025 年的假設中。

The combined ratio of 92.5% included in our 2025 business plan compared to the 91.2% achieved in 2024 reflects anticipated improved loss experience in our social inflation-exposed businesses, optimism for the potential overall company for net favorable reserve development in the overall company, which we expect to be substantially offset by lower but still strong workers' comp profitability, and higher catastrophe losses primarily due to the California wildfires. Growth in certain product offerings that pay higher broker commissions and modestly lower ceding commissions from certain reinsurers are expected to elevate the expense ratio in 2025 relative to 2024 also. We believe that the combination of our reserve strength, the continued healthy rate environment, prudent growth, and the ability to invest at a rate that exceeds our current portfolio yield positions us well for continued strong results in 2025 and beyond.

我們 2025 年業務計劃中的綜合比率為 92.5%，而 2024 年實現的比率為 91.2%，這反映了我們預期受社會通膨影響的業務的損失經驗將改善，對整個公司淨盈餘準備金發展潛力的樂觀態度，我們預計，較低但仍然強勁的工人補償能力，以及主要由於加州盈利的災難大勢災難造成更高經濟損失。某些支付較高經紀人佣金的產品供應量成長以及某些再保險公司支付的略低分保佣金預計也將提高 2025 年相對於 2024 年的費用率。我們相信，我們的儲備實力、持續健康的利率環境、審慎的成長以及以超過我們目前投資組合收益率的利率進行投資的能力，使我們在 2025 年及以後能夠繼續取得強勁的業績。

Craig and I are pleased to report these exceptionally strong results for the fourth quarter and full year. We're proud of our proven track record of long-term value creation. Our insurance professionals have exercised their specialty P&C knowledge and experience to skillfully navigate the marketplace, and our in-house investment team has been both strategic and opportunistic in the management of our $15.9 billion investment portfolio. We look forward to continuing to build long-term value for our shareholders in 2025 and beyond.

克雷格和我很高興地報告第四季和全年的強勁業績。我們為自己長期創造價值的良好記錄感到自豪。我們的保險專業人員運用其專業的財產和意外傷害保險知識和經驗，熟練地駕馭市場，而我們的內部投資團隊在管理我們 159 億美元的投資組合時既具有戰略性又具有機會性。我們期待在 2025 年及以後繼續為股東創造長期價值。

We'll now open the lines for a Q&A portion of our call today. Craig, Brian, and I would be happy to respond to your questions.

我們現在將開通今天電話會議的問答部分。克雷格、布萊恩和我很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) The first question that we have today will be coming from Gregory Peters of Raymond James.

謝謝。（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的格雷戈里彼得斯 (Gregory Peters)。

Good morning, everyone. I guess I'd like to just start with a question on your disclosure around the California wildfires. Maybe you can give us a sense of where the losses are coming from for you? Is this within the Specialty Financial business and financial institutions? Is it the Property side and the property transportation business. Just give us some added color and the type of exposures that resulted in the $60 million to $70 million estimated loss.

大家早安。我想先問一個問題，關於你披露的有關加州山火的情況。您能告訴我們您的損失來自哪裡嗎？這是在專業金融業務和金融機構範圍內嗎？是物業方面及物業運輸業務。只需向我們提供一些詳細資訊以及導致預計 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元損失的風險類型。

Yeah. Greg. It comes from our property-oriented businesses, the lender-placed property, sure, that will have losses there. Things like property and inland marine, our nonprofit business, our businesses that have property exposures in California would be the exposed businesses generally.

是的。格雷格。它來自於我們以房地產為導向的業務，貸款人放置的房地產，當然，這些房地產在那裡會遭受損失。諸如房地產和內陸航運、我們的非營利業務、以及我們在加州有房地產風險的業務一般都是受影響的業務。

Okay. And then you mentioned in your comments about some expense ratio pressures. Wondering if you could just revisit those comments and just give us a little extra detail about the lines of business that are driving the higher expense ratio. Maybe it's surety-related, I'm not sure, but maybe you could just give us some color, that would be helpful.

好的。然後您在評論中提到了一些費用比率壓力。想知道您是否可以重新審視這些評論，並向我們提供一些有關導致費用率上升的業務線的更多細節。也許這與保證有關，我不確定，但也許您可以給我們一些說明，這將會有所幫助。

Hi Greg, this is Brian. So when we're looking at our business opportunities, we're always looking at things from an overall return perspective, so not just the loss ratio or the expense ratio in isolation but also the investment income opportunity. So in some cases, if we're growing a business, for example, our financial institutions business that runs at a higher commission ratio than, say, our workers' comp business that runs lower, that can impact the ratio. So when you look at the businesses, it's really spanning across the board of businesses where, when we look at the overall economics of the transaction, paying a higher commission makes sense.

你好，格雷格，我是布萊恩。因此，當我們尋找商業機會時，我們總是從整體回報的角度來看待事物，因此不僅要考慮單獨的損失率或費用率，還要考慮投資收益機會。因此，在某些情況下，如果我們正在發展一項業務，例如，我們的金融機構業務的佣金比率高於我們的工人補償業務的佣金比率，那麼這可能會對佣金比率產生影響。因此，當你審視這些業務時，它實際上涵蓋了所有的業務，當我們審視交易的整體經濟狀況時，支付更高的佣金是有意義的。

Got it. Well, congratulations on the year, and thanks for answering my questions.

知道了。好吧，恭喜你度過這一年，謝謝你回答我的問題。

Our next question will be coming from the line of Jon Newsome of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Jon Newsome。

Good morning. I wanted to see if you can give a little bit more color on the Casualty reserve development in the quarter. In particular, I'm curious what's sort of underneath some of the excess pieces? Is it general liability under there? Is it commercial auto? Those seem to be kind of the hot button areas industry-wide that have had some issues. Just sort of what we can think about sort of what the sources of those trends on an underlying basis might be?

早安.我想看看您是否可以更詳細地介紹一下本季的意外險準備金發展。特別是，我很好奇這些多餘的碎片下面是什麼？這是一般責任嗎？是商用車嗎？這些似乎是整個行業都存在一些問題的熱門領域。我們能否思考一下這些趨勢的根本來源是什麼？

Yeah. Predominantly, the adverse development is coming from an excess liability writing unit of ours that focuses on kind of the Fortune 500, Fortune 1000, larger entities. Our other excess liability entity, profitability is very good in that. So it's really focused on kind of on one of our business units focused on larger companies.

是的。主要的不利發展來自我們的超額負債承保部門，該部門專注於財富 500 強、財富 1000 強等大型實體。我們的其他超額負債實體，獲利能力非常好。因此，它實際上專注於我們的一個針對大型公司的業務部門。

Well, that makes sense. That's interesting. And also thinking about that, maybe kind of philosophical thoughts on how you think about taking or reacting to the trend line in these issues. It looks like you're kind of taking a little bit every quarter kind of thing approach. But I'm curious if there's sort of anything that triggers a more aggressive or a less aggressive approach to reserves when you're thinking about changing trend.

嗯，這很有道理。那很有意思。並且考慮到這一點，也許您會對如何看待或應對這些問題的趨勢線有一些哲學思考。看起來你們採取的是每季做一點事情的辦法。但我很好奇，當你考慮改變趨勢時，是否有任何事情會引發對儲備採取更積極或更不積極的態度。

Yeah, Brian, you can weigh in also. But again, historically, we look at every one of our businesses, both from a reserving actuarially quarter by quarter in that. And we look for trends, the loss ratio trends. If we see changes in loss ratio trends, then that impacts our decision on reserving. This quarter, we reacted to the facts that were before us and particularly around one of the businesses, the Fortune 500 and 1000 excess liability business in that. So we try to be prudent and really look at all of our businesses every quarter in that. Brian?

是的，布萊恩，你也可以參與其中。但是，從歷史上看，我們會逐季度從準備金精算的角度審視我們的每項業務。我們尋找趨勢，損失率趨勢。如果我們看到損失率趨勢發生變化，那麼這會影響我們的準備金決定。本季度，我們對面臨的事實做出了反應，特別是圍繞其中一項業務，即財富 500 強和 1000 強超額責任業務。因此，我們盡量保持謹慎，並真正審視每季的所有業務。布賴恩？

To add to that, so when we're looking at our businesses, for example, in the business that Carl mentioned, the Fortune 500 excess business and across all our businesses, when we're looking at that each quarter, we're reacting to increased severity in the older years. So we're seeing actual increased severity in the years say, 2019 and before, but then also acknowledging that that trend would continue and adjusting our loss picks in the later years, even though we haven't experienced that yet. So we're trying to react across all years to the information that we see each quarter. So we're not -- even though it sounds like maybe you're saying we're taking a little each quarter, we really are taking a holistic approach and attempting to get to the best place based on what we know at the time each review.

除此之外，當我們審視我們的業務時，例如卡爾提到的業務、財富 500 強的超額業務以及我們所有的業務時，當我們每個季度審視這些業務時，我們都會對前幾年日益嚴重的問題做出反應。因此，我們看到 2019 年及之前的幾年裡，嚴重程度確實有所增加，但我們也承認這種趨勢會持續下去，並在以後幾年調整我們的損失選擇，儘管我們還沒有經歷過這種情況。因此，我們試圖對每年每季看到的資訊做出反應。所以我們不是——儘管聽起來你可能在說我們每個季度只採取一點行動，但我們實際上採取了一種整體方法，並試圖根據我們在每次審查時所了解的情況達到最佳狀態。

Great. Thank you very much. Appreciate the help, as always.

偉大的。非常感謝。一如既往地感謝您的幫助。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is coming from the line of Andrew Andersen of Jefferies.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞（Jefferies）的安德魯·安德森（Andrew Andersen）。

Hey, good morning. Just wanted to go back to the 92.5% combined ratio guide for 2025, and I guess it would be an expectation of average crop, which was the case in 2024. But if we also maybe strip out the California wildfires as part of the guide, it sounds like you're booking to a higher workers' comp loss ratio next year. I guess, one, is that the case? And two, are you also booking to a higher Casualty loss ratio in 2025.

嘿，早安。只是想回到 2025 年 92.5% 的綜合比率指南，我猜這將是對平均作物的預期，2024 年就是這種情況。但是，如果我們也可能將加州野火從指南中剔除，聽起來明年工人補償損失率會更高。我想，第一，是這樣的嗎？其次，您是否仍預期 2025 年的意外損失率會更高？

So without going into too much detail by business unit, what I would say is, you've said that correctly, that we had an average crop year in 2024, and embedded in our plan would be an average crop year in 2025. And we do have the higher cat exposure from the California wildfires in there. And then when you look at the workers' comp overall through accident year picks and sort of tempered view of the potential for favorable development, we will have a higher pick in workers' comp. So you're correct there, too. But what's offsetting that is in the other Casualty businesses and our social inflation-exposed businesses, where we've been taking underwriting actions, whether it's rate increases or moving up higher in the tower or non-renewing underperforming accounts, all of those things, we're expecting our loss ratio outside of the cats and the workers' comp to be better. So we're seeing improvement in our loss ratio outside of workers' comp and the catastrophes overall.

因此，我們無需過多地詳細闡述業務部門，我想說的是，您說得對，2024 年我們的收成年份是平均水平，而我們的計劃中也包含 2025 年的平均收成年份。加州的野火確實增加了貓接觸風險。然後，當您透過事故年份選擇和對有利發展潛力的某種緩和觀點來整體看待工人補償時，我們將在工人補償方面有更高的選擇。因此你說得也是對的。但是，在其他意外險業務和受社會通膨影響的業務中，我們一直在採取承保行動，無論是提高費率，還是提高保費或不再續保表現不佳的帳戶，所有這些，我們預計巨災保險和工傷補償之外的損失率會更好。因此，我們看到工傷補償和災難以外的損失率總體有所改善。

So on the expense ratio side, that's more of the driver of the increase. That is mix of business and then, to a lesser extent, the ceding commission from reinsurers, which are still good ceding commissions, just not as high as they have been kind of for the same reasons as we're seeing the adverse development.

因此，從費用率方面來看，這更是推動費用成長的原因。這是業務組合，然後在較小程度上是來自再保險公司的分保佣金，這仍然是良好的分保佣金，只是沒有像以前那麼高，原因與我們看到的不利發展相同。

Okay, thank you for the detail there. Maybe on Specialty Casualty, some good rate in the quarter 11%, and seems like it has been accelerating throughout the year and recognizing there's a 5% consolidated guide. But how should we think about maybe Specialty Casualty here? Could growth pick up a little bit, just given where the rate level is or are you more focused on maintaining margins here?

好的，感謝您提供的詳細資訊。也許在特殊意外險方面，本季度的費率不錯，為 11%，而且似乎全年都在加速增長，並且認識到有 5% 的綜合指導。但是，我們該如何看待特殊傷亡事故呢？考慮到目前的利率水平，成長率是否可能略有回升，還是您更注重維持利潤率？

Well, excluding workers' comp, I think we are growing kind of high-single digit, which I think is solid. I think at some point here, we could get helped also by workers' comp pricing kind of bottoming out. In California, I think our pricing has increased a little bit. In our Summit business, after a 15% rate decline in January last year, I think this year, I think it's like a one percent change. So I think that may help us on the workers' comp side also.

嗯，除去工人補償，我認為我們的成長率達到了高個位數，我認為這是穩健的。我認為在某種程度上，工人補償價格觸底反彈也會對我們有所幫助。在加州，我認為我們的定價有所上漲。在我們的 Summit 業務中，繼去年 1 月利率下降 15% 之後，我認為今年的變化幅度將達到 1%。所以我認為這在工人補償方面也可能有所幫助。

Great. Thank you for the color.

偉大的。謝謝你的顏色。

Our next question will be coming from the line of Michael Zaremski of BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Michael Zaremski。

Hi. This is Dan on for Mike. Maybe just going back to the Specialty Casualty underlying improvement year-over-year, just to clarify, so is the improvement there coming from moving up in the tower in terms and condition changes? And then maybe just what inning would you say you are for the underwriting actions there? Thanks.

你好。這是丹代替麥克。也許只是回到專業傷亡險同比基本改善的問題，只是為了澄清，那麼那裡的改善是否來自於條款和條件變化的提升？那麼您認為您在那裡採取的核保行動將處於什麼階段？謝謝。

So we've also been getting good price increases there as well. So between the price increases, the underwriting actions, and the moving up in the tower, all of that helps to improve our expectations around profitability from those business units. We're keeping an eye on those things going forward. And we'll be careful in our picks to not reflect any kind of favorable impact until we actually see it. So we hope that we'll be conservative in our picks just because we're hoping to see those things come through. But ultimately, we're looking at improvement there from those things.

因此我們那裡的價格也得到了不錯的上漲。因此，價格上漲、承保行動以及大樓升級，所有這些都有助於提高我們對這些業務部門獲利能力的預期。我們將持續關注這些事態的發展。我們將謹慎選擇，直到我們真正看到它為止，不會反映任何有利的影響。因此我們希望在選擇時保持保守，因為我們希望看到這些事情實現。但最終，我們希望這些方面能夠得到改善。

Thanks. Then maybe just going back to the crop that changed and how you're viewing that year, just how that, maybe if you could size up the impact of how that changed your 2025 guide and specifically the releases from the 2024 accident year.

謝謝。然後也許只是回到發生變化的作物，以及你如何看待那一年，也許你可以評估一下這對你的 2025 年指南以及特別是 2024 年事故年份的發布的影響。

Yeah. I think we're still continuing to settle claims, some claims also in crop from last year also. So I think the big change was really around a few states like Ohio and Minnesota, where the soybean yields were substantially different than what the industry was modeling and what we were modeling in that. The corn prices and soybean prices were down, I think, 11% and 13% or something like that for corn and soybeans. That was because our average deductible farmers was about 22%. I think as we were in the summer and in the fall, reflecting on that, we felt very optimistic we were headed towards a better year. I think that it's the yield variability state by state that you don't know about until you actually get the claims, and you settle them. So I think that was probably the biggest difference that has really happened through year-end and early on this year.

是的。我認為我們仍在繼續解決索賠問題，其中一些索賠也涉及去年的農作物。因此，我認為巨大的變化實際上發生在俄亥俄州和明尼蘇達州等幾個州，這些州的大豆產量與行業模型和我們的模型有很大不同。我認為玉米價格和大豆價格下跌了，玉米和大豆價格分別下跌了 11% 和 13% 左右。這是因為我們的農民平均免賠額約為22%。我想，當我們在夏天和秋天回顧這一切時，我們感到非常樂觀，我們正走向更好的一年。我認為，各州的收益有差異，只有當你真正收到索賠並解決它們時，你才會知道。所以我認為這可能是今年年末和年初真正發生的最大變化。

Our next question will be coming from the line of Meyer Shields of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

我們的下一個問題來自 Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 公司的 Meyer Shields。

Great. Thanks so much. I want to go back to Brian's comments earlier where you talked about sort of extrapolating worst severity from older accident years to more recent accident years. And I guess, obviously, we look at things on a high level in the reported financials, but it doesn't seem like we're seeing that level of increased severity baked into Specialty Casualty, and I was hoping you could walk through the offsets there?

偉大的。非常感謝。我想回到布萊恩之前的評論，你談到了從過去事故年份推斷最近事故年份的最嚴重程度。我想，顯然，我們會在報告的財務狀況中從高層來看待事情，但似乎我們並沒有看到特殊傷亡事故的嚴重程度有所增加，我希望您能介紹一下那裡的抵消措施？

I think I am understanding your question. So in the Casualty, so for example, business we wrote in 2023 would have started off at a loss pick based on our experience through that date. So as we're getting iterative experience, we are reacting to that in our later years. The reason why it may not be that impactful is because it's being used by all the positive things on the underwriting side. So the underwriting actions we’re taking would cause you to think we should have a lower loss pick than we actually have, but that's because of the offsetting impact of this increased severity and us picking up some of those more recent accident year loss picks based on that experience.

我想我理解你的問題了。因此，以意外險為例，根據我們截至當時的經驗，我們在 2023 年承保的業務一開始會處於虧損狀態。因此，隨著我們獲得不斷迭代的經驗，我們會在晚年對此做出反應。它之所以可能不會產生那麼大的影響，是因為它被承保方面的所有積極因素所利用。因此，我們採取的承保行動會讓您認為我們的損失應該比實際的要低，但這是因為這種嚴重程度的增加產生了抵消影響，而且我們根據經驗選擇了最近事故年份的部分損失。

Okay. Perfect. That's helpful. And I was hoping we could turn to commercial auto because in general, that’s a line that seems to face some social inflation. And again, you didn't mention any particular problems now. I was hoping you just give us an update of where, I'll call it the transportation book is in terms of targeted profitability?

好的。完美的。這很有幫助。我希望我們可以轉向商用汽車行業，因為總體而言，這一行業似乎面臨一些社會通膨。再說了，您現在沒有提到任何具體問題。我希望您能向我們提供最新情況，我將其稱為運輸書籍的目標盈利能力？

Yeah. I think really, when you look at our overall commercial auto business overall, we're making a small accident year and calendar year underwriting profit in commercial auto overall with a solid return on equity and a small underwriting loss in commercial auto liability. And as I've mentioned in previous calls, we're working hard to get that to an underwriting profit in that. Our transportation businesses write workers' comp also. And when you add the comp, we're making very solid underwriting profits and really solid, good returns on equity. But just focused on commercial auto, we want to get to an underwriting profit in commercial auto liability in a stronger ROE and stronger overall commercial auto underwriting profit.

是的。我認為，當你整體看我們的整體商用汽車業務時，我們在商用汽車整體事故年和日曆年承保方面獲得了小額利潤，同時獲得了穩健的股本回報率，而在商用汽車責任方面承保損失較小。正如我在之前的電話會議中提到的那樣，我們正在努力實現承保利潤。我們的運輸企業也提供工傷補償。如果加上競爭對手，我們就會獲得非常可觀的承保利潤和非常可觀的股本回報率。但僅關注商用車，我們希望在更高的 ROE 和更高的整體商用車承保利潤下獲得商用車責任的承保利潤。

As I mentioned in the call, we got 20% in price increase in the fourth quarter in commercial auto liability. That was about 16% during the whole year. It's pretty strong. So I think between that and since 70% of our business, National Interstate, is in alternative vehicles, we also have the ability to increase the captive retentions if it makes sense in certain captives and change our share premium. So we're doing all of those things in order to achieve an underwriting profit in commercial auto liability and that.

正如我在電話中提到的，第四季我們的商業汽車責任險價格上漲了 20%。全年成長率約為16%。它非常強。因此，我認為，鑑於我們 70% 的業務（National Interstate）都涉及替代性投資工具，如果對某些自保公司有意義的話，我們也有能力增加自保公司的留存率，並改變我們的股本溢價。所以我們所做的所有這些事情都是為了實現商業汽車責任險的承保利潤。

Clearly, commercial auto liability for the industry and us is one of the areas that's impacted on social inflation on that, particularly the commercial auto liability part of that, with part of the industry seeing 10% plus loss ratio trends in that. Yeah, I think for the whole year, we grew about mid-single digit in that. We write some large accounts in the fourth quarter. We weren't -- because of our focus on price and terms in that, we lost some large accounts, so that had some impact on the business. Though, overall for the year, again, we grew mid-single digits, so that. I mean, we're focused on margin improvement in this business in that.

顯然，對於產業和我們來說，商業汽車責任保險是受社會通膨影響的領域之一，尤其是商業汽車責任險部分，該產業部分產業的損失率趨勢為 10% 以上。是的，我認為從全年來看，我們的成長速度大約是個位數的中等水平。我們在第四季簽訂了一些大額合約。我們沒有—因為我們專注於價格和條款，我們失去了一些大客戶，所以這對業務產生了一些影響。不過，就今年而言，我們的整體收入再次實現了中等個位數的成長。我的意思是，我們專注於提高該業務的利潤率。

So obviously, a few other competitors took some large accounts. And I don't know if it may be non-intelligent competition versus more competition. I don't know. We specialize in this business. Again, where overall in commercial auto, we're at solid returns and small underwriting profits. Our guys would tell me that's probably about five points-plus better than our competitors. So I'm very pleased with how we're positioned. And who knows, maybe as others come to grips and try to improve this business as a part of their portfolio, they will provide some more growth opportunities for us.

顯然，其他一些競爭對手也獲得了一些大額帳戶。我不知道這是否可能是非智力競爭與更多競爭。我不知道。我們專門從事這項業務。再次，在商業汽車領域，我們總體上獲得了穩定的回報和較小的承保利潤。我們的員工告訴我，這可能比我們的競爭對手好 5 個百分點以上。所以我對我們的定位非常滿意。誰知道呢，也許當其他人開始掌握並嘗試將這項業務作為其投資組合的一部分進行改善時，他們會為我們提供更多的成長機會。

Okay, great. Thank you so much.

好的，太好了。太感謝了。

Thank you. And that does conclude today's Q&A session. I would like to go ahead and turn the call back over to Diane for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。我想繼續，並將電話轉回給黛安，請她做最後發言。請繼續。

Thank you, and thank you all for participating this morning and for the great discussion. We look forward to talking with you all again next quarter.

謝謝大家，謝謝大家今天早上的參與和精彩的討論。我們期待下個季度再次與大家交談。

Thank you all for joining today's conference call. This does conclude today's meeting. You may all disconnect.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。今天的會議到此結束。你們都可以斷開連線。