American Financial Group Inc (AFG) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Financial Group 2025 first quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加美國金融集團2025年第一季業績電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Diane Weidner, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的第一位發言者，投資者關係副總裁黛安·韋德納 (Diane Weidner)。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to American Financial Group's first quarter 2025 earnings results conference call. We released our 2025 first quarter results yesterday afternoon. Our press release, investor supplement, and webcast presentation are posted on AFG's website under the Investor Relations section. These materials will be referenced during portions of today's call.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加美國金融集團 2025 年第一季財報業績電話會議。我們昨天下午發布了2025年第一季業績。我們的新聞稿、投資者補充資料和網路廣播簡報均發佈在 AFG 網站的「投資者關係」部分。這些資料將在今天的電話會議中被引用。

I'm joined this morning by Carl Lindner III and Craig Lindner, Co-CEOs of American Financial Group, and Brian Hertzman, AFG's CFO.

今天上午，與我一起參加會議的還有美國金融集團聯合首席執行官卡爾·林德納三世 (Carl Lindner III) 和克雷格·林德納 (Craig Lindner)，以及美國金融集團首席財務官布萊恩·赫茲曼 (Brian Hertzman)。

Before I turn the discussion over to Carl, I would like to draw your attention to the notes on slide 2 of our webcast. Some of the matters to be discussed today are forward-looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results and/or our financial condition to differ materially from these statements. A detailed description of these risks and uncertainties can be found in AFG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are also available on our website.

在我將討論交給卡爾之前，我想提請您注意我們網路廣播第二張投影片上的註釋。今天要討論的一些問題具有前瞻性。這些前瞻性陳述涉及某些風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果和/或財務狀況與這些陳述有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性的詳細描述可以在 AFG 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中找到，這些文件也可以在我們的網站上找到。

We may include references to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure, in our remarks or in responses to questions. A reconciliation of net earnings to core net operating earnings is included in our earnings release. And finally, if you're reading a transcript of this call, please note that it may not be authorized or reviewed for accuracy, and as a result, it may contain factual or transcription errors that could materially alter the intent or meaning of our statements.

我們可能會在評論或回答問題時提及核心淨營業利潤（非公認會計準則財務指標）。我們的收益報告中包含了淨收益與核心淨營業收益的對帳。最後，如果您正在閱讀本次通話的記錄，請注意，它可能未經授權或準確性審查，因此，它可能包含事實或轉錄錯誤，可能會實質地改變我們聲明的意圖或含義。

Now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Carl Lindner III to discuss our results.

現在我很高興將電話轉給 Carl Lindner III 來討論我們的結果。

Good morning. I'll begin by sharing a few highlights of AFG's 2025 first quarter results, after which Craig and I will walk through more details. We'll then open it up for Q&A, where Craig, Brian, and I will be happy to respond to your questions. AFG's first quarter results were solid in the face of elevated industry catastrophe losses and heightened levels of economic volatility. In addition, we returned over $290 million to our shareholders during the first quarter of 2025 through a combination of regular dividends, special dividends, and share repurchases.

早安.我將首先分享 AFG 2025 年第一季業績的一些亮點，然後 Craig 和我將詳細介紹。然後我們將進入問答環節，Craig、Brian 和我將很樂意回答你們的問題。在產業巨災損失增加和經濟波動加劇的情況下，AFG 第一季業績依然穩健。此外，我們在 2025 年第一季透過定期股利、特別股利和股票回購等方式向股東返還了超過 2.9 億美元。

Our compelling mix of specialty insurance businesses, entrepreneurial culture, disciplined operating philosophy, and an astute team of in-house investment professionals continue to serve us well in environments such as these and position us for long-term success. Craig and I thank God, our talented management team, and our great employees for helping us to achieve these results.

我們引人注目的專業保險業務、創業文化、嚴謹的經營理念以及精明的內部投資專業團隊，在這樣的環境中繼續為我們提供良好的服務，並為我們取得長期成功奠定了基礎。克雷格和我感謝上帝、我們才華洋溢的管理團隊和優秀的員工，感謝他們幫助我們取得這些成果。

I'll now turn the discussion over to Craig to walk us through some of the details.

現在我將把討論交給 Craig 來向我們介紹一些細節。

Thank you, Carl. Please turn to slides 3 and 4 for a summary of earnings information for the quarter. AFG reported core net operating earnings of $1.81 per share in the 2025 first quarter. This year-over-year decrease reflects lower P&C insurance underwriting profit and lower returns in AFG's alternative investment portfolio. Now I'd like to turn to an overview of AFG's investment performance and financial position and share a few comments about AFG's capital and liquidity.

謝謝你，卡爾。請翻到投影片 3 和 4 來了解本季的收益資訊摘要。AFG 報告稱，2025 年第一季核心淨營業收益為每股 1.81 美元。這一同比下降反映了財產和意外傷害保險承保利潤的下降以及 AFG 另類投資組合的回報率的下降。現在我想概述 AFG 的投資績效和財務狀況，並對 AFG 的資本和流動性分享一些評論。

The details surrounding our $16 billion investment portfolio are presented on slides 5 and 6. Excluding the impact of alternative investments, net investment income in our property and casualty insurance operations for the three months ended March 31, 2025, increased 6% year over year as a result of the impact of higher interest rates and higher balances of invested assets. Property and casualty net investment income including alternative investments was approximately 17% lower than the comparable 2024 period.

我們的 160 億美元投資組合的詳細資訊在第 5 張和第 6 張投影片中介紹。剔除另類投資的影響，受利率上升及投資資產餘額增加的影響，截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的三個月，我們的財產和意外保險業務的淨投資收入年增 6%。包括另類投資在內的財產和意外傷害淨投資收入比 2024 年同期下降約 17%。

As you'll see on slide 6, approximately 66% of our portfolio is invested in fixed maturities. In the current interest rate environment, we're able to invest in fixed maturity securities at yields of approximately 5.75% and actually exceeded 6% on the investments that we made in the first quarter of 2025. Current reinvestment rates compare favorably to the 5% yield earned on fixed maturities in our P&C portfolio during the first quarter of 2025.

正如您在第 6 張投影片上看到的，我們投資組合中約有 66% 投資於固定期限債券。在當前的利率環境下，我們能夠以約 5.75% 的收益率投資固定期限證券，實際上我們在 2025 年第一季的投資收益率超過了 6%。目前的再投資利率與我們 2025 年第一季的財產和意外保險投資組合中固定期限債券的 5% 收益率相比具有優勢。

The duration of our P&C fixed maturity portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents, was 2.8 years at March 31, 2025. The annualized return on alternative investments in our P&C portfolio was approximately 1.8% for the 2025 first quarter compared to 9% for the prior year quarter, due primarily to returns below expectations in our traditional private equity portfolio. Earnings from alternative investments vary from quarter to quarter based on the reported results of the underlying investments and generally are reported on a quarter lag. Elevated economic uncertainty could continue to temper returns in AFG's alternative investment portfolio in 2025. Longer term, we remain optimistic regarding the prospects of attractive returns from our alternative investment portfolio, with an expectation of annual returns averaging 10% or better. In March of 2025, AFG announced that it had reached agreements to sell the Charleston Harbor Resort and Marina. Assuming the successful completion of the diligence period and satisfaction of other customary conditions, the transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2025. AFG currently expects to recognize an after-tax core operating gain of approximately $100 million, or $1.20 per share, on the sale. This transaction was not contemplated in AFG's original business plan assumptions.

截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，我們的 P&C 固定期限投資組合（包括現金及現金等價物）的期限為 2.8 年。2025 年第一季度，我們財產和意外保險投資組合中另類投資的年化回報率約為 1.8%，而去年同期為 9%，這主要是因為我們傳統私募股權投資組合的回報率低於預期。另類投資的收益會根據基礎投資的報告結果而每季有所不同，通常會滯後一個季度報告。2025 年，經濟不確定性加劇可能會持續抑制 AFG 另類投資組合的報酬。從長遠來看，我們仍然對另類投資組合的可觀回報前景持樂觀態度，預計年回報率平均達到 10% 或更高。2025 年 3 月，AFG 宣布已達成出售查爾斯頓港度假村和碼頭的協議。假設盡職調查期間成功完成且其他慣例條件已滿足，該交易預計將於 2025 年第三季完成。AFG 目前預計此次出售將帶來約 1 億美元的稅後核心營運收益，即每股 1.20 美元。AFG 最初的商業計劃假設中並未考慮此交易。

Please turn to slide 7, where you'll find a summary of AFG's financial position at March 31, 2025. During the quarter, we returned over $290 million to our shareholders, including $58 million in share repurchases, the payment of a $2.00 per share special dividend, and our $0.80 per share regular quarterly dividend. We expect our operations to continue to generate significant excess capital throughout the remainder of 2025, which provides ample opportunity for acquisitions, special dividends, or share repurchases. We evaluate the best alternatives for capital deployment on a regular basis.

請翻到投影片 7，您將看到 AFG 截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的財務狀況摘要。本季度，我們向股東返還了超過 2.9 億美元，其中包括 5,800 萬美元的股票回購、每股 2.00 美元的特別股息以及每股 0.80 美元的常規季度股息。我們預計，我們的營運將在 2025 年剩餘時間內繼續產生大量過剩資本，這為收購、特別股利或股票回購提供充足的機會。我們定期評估資本配置的最佳方案。

We continue to view total value creation, as measured by growth in book value plus dividends, as an important measure of performance over the longer term. For the three months ended March 31, 2025, AFG's growth in book value per share excluding AOCI plus dividends was 2.5%. Our strong operating results, coupled with effective capital management and our entrepreneurial opportunistic culture and disciplined operating philosophy, enable us to continue to create value for our shareholders.

我們持續將總價值創造（以帳面價值加上股利的成長來衡量）視為長期績效的重要指標。截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的三個月，AFG 每股帳面價值（不包括 AOCI 加上股息）增加了 2.5%。我們強勁的經營業績，加上有效的資本管理、創業機會主義文化和嚴謹的經營理念，使我們能夠繼續為股東創造價值。

I'll now turn the call over to Carl to discuss the results of our P&C operations.

我現在將電話轉給卡爾，討論我們的財產和意外保險業務的結果。

Thank you, Craig. Please turn to slides 8 and 9 of the webcast, which include an overview of our first quarter results. Our Specialty Property and Casualty businesses performed well during the first quarter of 2025 despite elevated catastrophe losses stemming from the California wildfires, with our underwriting results playing out in line with our expectations. I'm pleased that our overall Specialty Property and Casualty accident year, excluding cat loss ratio improved 1.8 points year over year and was the lowest it has been in recent years. Looking at a few details, you'll see on slide 8 that our Specialty Property and Casualty insurance businesses generated a 94% combined ratio in the first quarter, 3.9 points higher than the 90.1% reported in the first quarter of 2024, driven by higher catastrophe losses and lower levels of net favorable reserve development.

謝謝你，克雷格。請翻到網路廣播的第 8 張和第 9 張投影片，其中包含我們第一季業績的概述。儘管加州野火造成了巨災損失，但我們的專業財產和意外險業務在 2025 年第一季表現良好，承保結果符合我們的預期。我很高興，我們的整體專業財產和意外事故年度（不包括巨災損失率）年比改善了 1.8 個百分點，是近年來的最低水準。看看一些細節，您會在第 8 張投影片上看到，我們的專業財產和意外傷害保險業務在第一季的綜合成本率為 94%，比 2024 年第一季報告的 90.1% 高出 3.9 個百分點，這主要是由於巨災損失增加和淨有利準備金開發水準降低。

Results for the 2025 first quarter include 4.5 points related to catastrophe losses, due primarily to losses from the California wildfires. By comparison, catastrophe losses added 2.3 points to the combined ratio in the 2024 first quarter. First quarter 2025 results benefited from 1.3 points of favorable prior year reserve development, compared to 3.3 points in the first quarter of 2024.

2025 年第一季的結果包括與災難損失相關的 4.5 個百分點，主要原因是加州野火造成的損失。相較之下，2024 年第一季的巨災損失使綜合比率增加了 2.3 個百分點。2025 年第一季的業績受惠於上年儲備金發展的良好成長 1.3 個百分點，而 2024 年第一季則為 3.3 個百分點。

First quarter 2025 gross and net written premiums were 2% and 1% lower, respectively, than the comparable period in 2024. We continue to achieve year-over-year premium growth in selected businesses as a result of a combination of new business opportunities, a good renewal rate environment, and increased exposures. However, strategic decisions to optimize long-term results, including the non-renewal of certain underperforming accounts, and proactive underwriting measures to address the impact of social inflation and competitive market conditions in selected lines of business tempered growth in the quarter.

2025 年第一季的毛承保保費和淨承保保費分別比 2024 年同期下降 2% 和 1%。由於新的業務機會、良好的續保率環境和增加的曝光度等因素的共同作用，我們繼續在選定的業務中實現保費同比增長。然而，優化長期業績的策略決策（包括不再續保某些表現不佳的帳戶，以及為應對特定業務線的社會通膨和競爭性市場條件的影響而採取的積極承保措施）抑制了本季度的成長。

When we adjust to exclude the impact of several large accounts that weren't renewed, overall Specialty Property and Casualty gross written premium grew by 2% year over year and net written premium was up 1%. Maintaining underwriting discipline has been paramount. While pricing and underwriting actions moderated our growth this quarter, we're positioned for future success, and we continue to expect premium growth for the full year in 2025. Average renewal pricing across our property and casualty group, excluding our workers' comp business, was up approximately 7% in the first quarter, and up approximately 5% overall. We have reported overall renewal rate increases for 35 consecutive quarters, and we believe we are achieving overall renewal rate increases in excess of prospective loss ratio trends to meet or exceed targeted returns.

當我們進行調整以排除幾個未續保的大帳戶的影響時，整體專業財產和意外險毛承保保費同比增長 2%，淨承保保費增長 1%。維持承保紀律至關重要。雖然定價和承保行動減緩了我們本季的成長，但我們已為未來的成功做好了準備，我們仍然預計 2025 年全年保費將實現成長。我們財產和意外險集團（不包括工傷賠償業務）的平均續保價格在第一季上漲了約 7%，整體上漲了約 5%。我們已經連續 35 個季度報告整體續保率上升，我們相信，我們實現的整體續保率成長將超過預期的損失率趨勢，從而達到或超過目標回報。

Now I'd like to turn to slide 9 to review a few highlights from each of our Specialty Property and Casualty business groups. Details are included in our earnings release, so I'll focus on summary results here. Before I begin, I want to point to a reclassification that we made this quarter. Historically, AFG has reported results from its internal reinsurance facility that assumes business from several of our Specialty Property and Casualty businesses within our Specialty-Other Group. Beginning in the first quarter of 2025, we're presenting the results of the business assumed by our internal reinsurance facility within the same reporting groups as the ceding businesses.

現在，我想翻到第 9 張投影片來回顧我們各個專業財產和意外險業務集團的一些亮點。詳細資訊包含在我們的收益報告中，因此我將在此重點介紹摘要結果。在開始之前，我想指出我們本季所做的重新分類。從歷史上看，AFG 報告了其內部再保險機構的業績，該機構承接了我們專業-其他集團內的幾項專業財產和意外險業務。從 2025 年第一季開始，我們將在與分保業務相同的報告組中展示內部再保險機構所承擔的業務結果。

The overall results for AFG Specialty Property and Casualty insurance operations aren't impacted by this reclassification. Comparable prior year results have been recast accordingly. We believe this presentation better reflects the performance of the underlying operating businesses, improves our ability to evaluate results, and enhances our financial reporting.

此次重新分類不會對 AFG 專業財產和意外傷害保險業務的整體業績產生影響。可比較的上一年業績已相應重訂。我們相信，此報告能更能反映基礎營運業務的業績，提高我們評估結果的能力，並增強我們的財務報告。

The businesses in the Property and Transportation Group achieved a 92.5% calendar year combined ratio overall in the first quarter of 2025, 4.0 points higher than the 88.5% reported in the comparable 2024 period. The first quarter 2025 combined ratio benefited from 3.9 points of favorable prior year reserve development, compared to 8.8 points in the 2024 first quarter, reflecting especially strong results then for our property and inland marine and crop businesses in the prior year period.

2025 年第一季度，財產和運輸集團業務的整體日曆年綜合成本率達到 92.5%，比 2024 年同期的 88.5% 高出 4.0 個百分點。2025 年第一季的綜合比率受益於去年有利的儲備發展 3.9 個百分點，而 2024 年第一季為 8.8 個百分點，這反映了我們去年同期的房地產、內陸海洋和農作物業務的強勁業績。

First quarter 2025 gross and net written premiums in this group were both down 6% from the comparable prior year period. As noted earlier, the decrease was primarily due to the non-renewal of a few large policies in our agricultural and transportation businesses, coupled with elevated pricing competition in our transportation businesses.

2025 年第一季度，該集團的毛承保保費和淨承保保費均較去年同期下降 6%。如前所述，下降的主要原因是我們的農業和運輸業務中的一些大型保單未續簽，再加上運輸業務的價格競爭加劇。

The year-over-year decrease in premium was partially offset by new business opportunities, a favorable rate environment, and higher exposures. Excluding the impact of the non-renewals, gross written premiums in this group were up 2%, and net written premiums were flat. Overall renewal rates in this group increased approximately 7% on average in the first quarter of 2025. We continue to remain focused on rate adequacy, particularly in our commercial auto liability line of business, where rates were up approximately 17% in the first quarter. This is our 14th year of rate increases in this line.

保費年減部分被新的業務機會、有利的費率環境和更高的風險敞口所抵消。排除未續保的影響，該集團的毛承保保費增長了 2%，淨承保保費持平。2025 年第一季度，該族群的整體續約率平均成長了約 7%。我們繼續關注費率充足性，特別是在我們的商業汽車責任業務線上，該業務線的費率在第一季度上漲了約 17%。這是我們第 14 年提高該業務的費率。

As for crop insurance, industry estimates for the 2025 planted acreage for corn and soybeans overall are generally unchanged from the 2024 levels, and planting progress is slightly ahead of historical averages. Generally speaking, for the vast majority of our insured crops, the corn planting window runs from mid-April through the end of May, and the soybean planting window runs from late April to the end of June. It's very early in the growing season.

至於作物保險，業界對2025年玉米和大豆種植面積的總體估計與2024年的水平基本持平，種植進度略高於歷史平均。一般來說，對於我們承保的絕大多數作物來說，玉米種植期從 4 月中旬持續到 5 月底，大豆種植期從 4 月下旬持續到 6 月底。現在正處於生長季節的早期。

Current commodity futures for corn and soybeans are trading about 6% and 3% lower, respectively, than the 2025 spring discovery prices. While the year-over-year decrease in spring discovery pricing for soybeans will impact premium written, our crop results for 2025 will depend on the harvest yields and prices in the second half of the year.

目前玉米和大豆的商品期貨交易價格分別比2025年春季發現價格低約6％和3％。雖然大豆在春季發現價格年減將影響保費收入，但我們 2025 年的作物結果將取決於下半年的收穫產量和價格。

The businesses in our Specialty Casualty Group achieved a 97.6% calendar year combined ratio overall in the first quarter, 5.4 points higher than the 92.2% reported in the comparable period last year. First quarter 2025 gross and net written premiums decreased 3% and 4%, respectively, when compared to the same prior year period. The [lower] (added by company after the call) year-over-year premiums were primarily attributed to our excess liability, executive liability, and workers' comp businesses, and were partially offset by higher year-over-year premiums in our mergers and acquisition business, and new business opportunities and favorable renewal pricing in several of our other casualty businesses.

我們特殊意外險集團的業務在第一季整體實現了 97.6% 的日曆年綜合成本率，比去年同期的 92.2% 高出 5.4 個百分點。與去年同期相比，2025 年第一季的毛承保保費和淨承保保費分別下降 3% 和 4%。保費年減（公司在電話會議後補充）主要歸因於我們的超額責任險、高管責任險和工傷賠償業務，但被併購業務的同比保費上升、其他幾項意外險業務的新業務機會和優惠的續保價格所部分抵消。

Excluding our workers' comp businesses, renewal rates for this group were up 9% in the first quarter. Pricing in this group including workers' comp was up about 6%. I'm pleased that we achieved renewal rate increases in the mid-teens in our most social inflation-exposed businesses, including our social services and excess liability businesses.

不包括我們的工傷補償業務，該集團的續保率在第一季上漲了 9%。包括工傷賠償在內的該組價格上漲了約 6%。我很高興，我們在受社會通膨影響最大的業務中實現了續保率的十五六倍增長，其中包括我們的社會服務和超額責任業務。

The Specialty Financial Group continued to achieve excellent underwriting margins and reported an 87.0% combined ratio for the first quarter of 2025, only 0.4 points higher than the comparable period in 2024, despite the elevated catastrophe losses in the quarter. First quarter 2025 gross and net written premiums in this group were up 16% and 18%, respectively, when compared to the prior year period, due primarily to growth in our financial institutions business. Renewal pricing in this group was up approximately 2% in the first quarter.

專業金融集團繼續實現優異的承保利潤率，儘管本季巨災損失增加，但 2025 年第一季的綜合成本率為 87.0%，僅比 2024 年同期高出 0.4 個百分點。2025 年第一季度，該集團的毛承保保費和淨承保保費與去年同期相比分別成長了 16% 和 18%，這主要歸因於我們金融機構業務的成長。第一季該類別的續訂價格上漲了約 2%。

Craig and I are proud of our proven track record of long-term value creation. We have years of experience navigating economic and insurance cycles. Although there's heightened economic uncertainty and developments with regards to tariffs are a fluid situation, we believe we're well positioned to navigate these challenges. While many of our businesses are insulated from direct tariff risks, an economic slowdown does pose secondary risk to several of our businesses. We believe the impact of these tariffs will be mitigated through various strategies such as advanced inventory build-ups, substitution of goods, and reorganizing operations. Nevertheless, this uncertainty is another reason we continue to be hyper focused on pricing discipline and loss trends. Our insurance professionals continue to exercise their specialty property and casualty knowledge and experience to successfully compete in a dynamic marketplace. Our in-house investment team has been both strategic and opportunistic in the management of our $16 billion investment portfolio. One of our greatest strengths is finding opportunities in times of uncertainty. I believe we're well positioned to continue to build long-term value for our shareholders for the remainder of 2025 and beyond.

克雷格和我為我們長期創造價值的良好記錄感到自豪。我們擁有多年駕馭經濟和保險週期的經驗。儘管經濟不確定性加劇，關稅發展情況不穩定，但我們相信我們已準備好應對這些挑戰。雖然我們的許多業務不受直接關稅風險的影響，但經濟放緩確實會為我們的幾項業務帶來次要風險。我們相信，這些關稅的影響將透過各種策略減輕，例如提前增加庫存、替代商品和重組業務。然而，這種不確定性是我們繼續高度關注定價紀律和損失趨勢的另一個原因。我們的保險專業人員不斷運用他們的專業財產和意外傷害知識和經驗，以在充滿活力的市場中成功競爭。我們的內部投資團隊在管理我們 160 億美元的投資組合時既具有策略性又具有機會主義精神。我們最大的優勢之一就是在不確定的時期發現機會。我相信，我們有能力在 2025 年剩餘時間及以後繼續為股東創造長期價值。

We'll now open the lines for the Q&A portion of today's call. And Craig and Brian and I would be happy to respond to your questions.

我們現在開始今天電話會議的問答環節。克雷格、布萊恩和我很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）BMO 資本市場 Michael Zaremski。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. My first question is just about the expense ratio in the context of the 92.5% combined ratio guide. It appears to be some meaningful expense ratio changes both sequentially and quarter over quarter. Any color you can offer us on kind of whether there's something going on with business mix shift or reinsurance, so we can kind of better understand how to think about these moving parts.

嘿，謝謝。早安.我的第一個問題是關於 92.5% 綜合比率指南中的費用率。費用率似乎比上一季和上一季都發生了一些有意義的變化。您能否向我們提供一些關於業務組合轉變或再保險方面的情況的信息，以便我們更好地理解如何看待這些活動部件。

Sure, Mike. This is Brian. There's a few things going on there. Part of it is mix of business. You can see, for example, we had significant growth in our financial institutions business, offsetting some of the slower growth or lack of growth in the other segments, and that business runs at a different expense ratio than some of the other businesses.

當然，麥克。這是布萊恩。那裡發生了一些事情。其中一部分是業務混合。例如，您可以看到，我們的金融機構業務取得了顯著成長，抵消了其他部門成長放緩或成長不足的影響，而且該業務的費用率與其他一些業務不同。

We also are spending a lot of time on making sure that we're not just looking at what we're doing this quarter, but looking into the future and have some expenses around software and IT initiatives in the areas of information security, customer experience, and data analytics that will help us to keep the great results we've had going on for years in the future, but there's a little bit of a drag from that right now on the expense ratio.

我們還花了大量時間來確保我們不僅僅關注本季度所做的事情，而且展望未來，並在資訊安全、客戶體驗和數據分析領域的軟體和 IT 計劃方面投入一些資金，這將有助於我們在未來幾年保持良好的業績，但目前這對費用率造成了一些拖累。

Okay. That's helpful, Brian.

好的。這很有幫助，布萊恩。

I just would add also that in our business plan, we built that in so that was expected in the business plan. We expected to have the expense ratio be a little higher.

我還要補充一點，在我們的商業計劃中，我們已經將其納入其中，所以這是商業計劃中所預期的。我們預計費用率會稍微高一些。

Okay. Got it. That was -- okay. Got it. One more numbers question probably for you, Brian. On the amount of catastrophes this quarter, it was kind of just barely above the California catastrophe range that you had offered previously. So it almost implies that either the Cali losses came in lower or there just really weren't much of any cats outside of California. How should we think about that?

好的。知道了。那是--好的。知道了。布萊恩，你可能還有一個數字問題。就本季度的災難數量而言，它略高於您之前提供的加州災難範圍。因此，這幾乎意味著要不是加州的損失較低，就是加州以外真的沒有太多貓科動物。我們該如何看待這個問題？

It's a little bit of both. So the cats for the California wildfires did come in at the low end of the range, and then there was just around $10 million or so of other smaller cats in the quarter. So it's mostly the California wildfires, but that did come in a little bit better than expected.

兩者都有一點。因此，加州山火造成的損失確實處於較低水平，而本季其他小型火災造成的損失僅為 1000 萬美元左右。所以主要是加州的野火，但情況確實比預期的要好一些。

Okay. Got it. And my final question, and I have a follow-up on some of the prepared remarks about growth. And just I think investors and you all focus on profitable growth rather than just pure top line growth. If we look very long term for American Financial Group, I believe P&C premium growth was a touch higher than the than the industry, so you took a little bit of share but it has ebbed and flowed. I know that during the Great Financial Crisis, the premium growth was much lower. Just curious, are we at a point in the cycle where it just doesn't make as much sense to just looking at the 1Q growth levels that came through? Are we at a point in the cycle where it just doesn't make sense to grow as much as you had previously thought? Or is it also a tie-in from less economic activity or both? Or any thoughts on where we are in the cycle? Thanks.

好的。知道了。我的最後一個問題是關於成長的一些準備好的評論的後續問題。我認為投資者和你們都關注的是獲利成長，而不僅僅是單純的營收成長。如果我們從長遠角度看待美國金融集團，我相信財產和意外傷害保險的保費增長率略高於行業平均水平，因此你們佔據了一點份額，但份額一直在起伏。我知道在金融危機期間，保費成長率要低得多。只是好奇，我們是否正處於週期的某個階段，僅僅關注第一季的成長水準是沒有意義的？我們是否正處於一個週期點，在這個點上，像您之前想像的那樣成長是沒有意義的？還是這也是經濟活動減少造成的結果，還是兩者兼具？或者對於我們處於週期的哪個階段有什麼想法？謝謝。

Yeah. No, I think we'd love to grow in almost every one of our businesses in that. Competitive pressures in businesses like public D&O in particular, and we've seen some MGA activity in the commercial auto side, believe it or not, and some of those kinds of things. But then a chunk of our business, as I've talked about in the past, probably 12% or 13% of our business is workers' comp. And rates, we project that will continue to be down maybe a couple of percent this year - that acts as a little bit of a headwind. And crop prices, I think I mentioned soybean prices were down in the discovery prices. And again, that's a decent chunk of our -- 12% of our net written premium or something - where because of soybean prices, business will probably be down some this year.

是的。不，我認為我們希望幾乎每一項業務都能夠成長。尤其是在公共 D&O 等業務領域面臨競爭壓力，不管你信不信，我們已經看到 MGA 在商用汽車方面開展了一些活動，以及諸如此類的事情。但正如我過去談到的，我們很大一部分的業務，大概 12% 或 13% 是工傷賠償。我們預計利率今年將繼續下降幾個百分點——這將起到一點阻力的作用。至於農作物價格，我想我有提到大豆價格在發現價格中有所下降。再說一次，這佔了我們相當大的一部分——占我們淨承保保費的 12% 左右——由於大豆價格上漲，今年的業務可能會下降。

I think also, we continue on a number of our social inflation-exposed businesses like our human services business. I think we talked about over the past couple of quarters, we've made a decision to get off of some $50 million of business over a year's period of time. So I think there and excess liability where we've kind of repositioned ourself with lower limits, paying higher up with increased rate. Taking a defensive position, which we think is intelligent on some of those businesses, we think that makes sense. So we don't have one of the better combined ratios and pre-tax returns as a company overall over 5- and 10- and 15-year period of time for just any reason. I think we try -- we're long-term owners, long-term thinkers. And in a particular quarter, if we don't like what a number of large accounts, we don't like the pricing or if the competition is willing to way undercut us on large accounts, it doesn't bother us to let some of that business go or to non-renew business. I hope that's helpful.

我也認為，我們會繼續開展一些受社會通膨影響的業務，例如人力服務業務。我想我們在過去幾個季度討論過，我們決定在一年內放棄約 5000 萬美元的業務。所以我認為，對於超額責任，我們已經重新定位，降低了限額，以更高的費率支付更高的費用。我們認為對某些企業採取防禦立場是明智之舉，這是有道理的。因此，出於某種原因，我們作為一家公司，在 5 年、10 年和 15 年的時間範圍內，並沒有擁有較好的綜合比率和稅前回報率。我認為我們會努力——我們是長期所有者、長期思考者。在某個特定季度，如果我們對一些大客戶不滿意，對定價不滿意，或者競爭對手願意以低於我們大客戶的價格收購我們，那麼我們也不會放棄部分業務或不再續約。我希望這會有幫助。

It is. Thank you.

這是。謝謝。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies

安德魯·安德森（Jefferies）

Hey, good morning. Just trying to think about the guidance that you detailed last quarter and at the time you were talking about $10.50 of EPS. Now that was before the $1.20 gain on sale. So should we think of the EPS guide for '25 being about $1 higher now?

嘿，早安。只是想想您上個季度詳述的指導，當時您談到每股收益 10.50 美元。那是在銷售收益達到 1.20 美元之前。那麼，我們是否應該認為 25 年的 EPS 指導價現在應該高出 1 美元左右？

Hi Andrew, this is Brian. When you look at our numbers, I think it's as you said, the Charleston Harbor transaction, the real estate transaction, was not contemplated in that original business plan of $10.50, so that would be incremental. That being said, the alternative investment portfolio returns in the first quarter were below our expectations. And with the uncertainty in the financial markets that we're seeing really almost every day, that's very hard to predict going forward. We don't have a real good way to predict what alternative investments will be as the market is moving all of the time. So it's really hard to say whether we'll hit the $10.50 or not. What we have said is that there will be some pressure potentially on the alt returns in the second half of the year. And the premium growth will depend on opportunities that we see to grow in the ways that Carl just spoke about before. But we're not updating our business plan, as our business plan is really our view at the time we put that together back in February.

你好，安德魯，我是布萊恩。當你查看我們的數字時，我認為正如你所說的那樣，查爾斯頓港交易，即房地產交易，並沒有在最初的 10.50 美元的商業計劃中考慮，所以這將是增量。話雖如此，第一季另類投資組合的回報低於我們的預期。由於我們幾乎每天都能看到金融市場的不確定性，因此很難預測未來的情況。由於市場一直在變化，我們沒有真正好的方法來預測替代投資將會是什麼。因此很難說我們是否能達到 10.50 美元的目標。我們所說的是，下半年 alt 回報可能會面臨一些壓力。而保費成長將取決於我們所看到的成長機會，正如卡爾剛才談到的。但我們不會更新我們的商業計劃，因為我們的商業計劃實際上是我們在二月制定時的觀點。

And so I wouldn't take the fact that we haven't updated that, I wouldn't take that as necessarily saying that we're still right on those numbers. But with the variability out there in the economy, we think that if everything sort of stays how it is, there will be a plus for the Charleston Harbor sale. But premium growth is muted in the first quarter. We still expect it to be positive for the year. And then the alternatives, like I said before, it's tough to predict what will happen in there with the economic volatility.

因此，我不會認為我們沒有更新這項數據，也不會認為這一定意味著我們對這些數字的判斷仍然正確。但考慮到經濟的變化，我們認為，如果一切維持現狀，查爾斯頓港的銷售就會有利。但第一季保費成長疲軟。我們仍預期今年的業績將呈現正面動能。然後是替代方案，就像我之前說的，很難預測經濟波動會帶來什麼後果。

Okay. And then just on the premium growth for the year, I think that was relative to a 5% guide originally. So is this maybe more of like a low single-digit environment as you're thinking about it?

好的。然後就今年的保費增長而言，我認為這是相對於最初的 5% 指導而言的。那麼，正如您所想的，這是否更像是一個低個位數環境？

With what happened in the first quarter, it probably won't be 5%, it will be lower, but we're still expecting positive for the year.

從第一季的情況來看，成長率可能不會達到 5%，可能會更低，但我們仍然預計今年的成長率將為正值。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Meyer Shields, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

邁耶希爾茲、基夫、布魯耶特和伍茲。

Great, thank you so much. And thanks for taking my question. I guess first question, when we look at Property and Transportation, we've had a couple of quarters of year-over-year premium declines. Is it safe to assume that this process of reviewing accounts for profitability implies some pressure in written premium for the next two quarters as well, so you've gone through a year of review?

太好了，非常感謝。感謝您回答我的問題。我想第一個問題是，當我們看房地產和運輸時，我們已經經歷了幾個季度的年比保費下降。是否可以安全地假設，審查獲利能力帳戶的過程也意味著未來兩個季度的已賺保費將面臨一些壓力，所以您已經經歷了一年的審查？

It's impossible to forecast, Meyer. We're -- particularly in the trucking side and passenger -- there's some very large accounts that you're repricing. And so very hard to predict whether you keep those or whether you don't based off of competition on a given day. At our pricing terms, we'd like to grow that business. But it can be lumpy in that part of the transportation side of things.

這不可能預測，邁耶。我們——特別是在卡車運輸和客運方面——正在對一些非常大的帳戶重新定價。因此，很難根據某一天的競爭情況來預測您是否會保留這些記錄。按照我們的定價條款，我們希望擴大這項業務。但在運輸方面，情況可能會不太順利。

I have been very consistent in saying that we're doing overall well as far as returns, particularly when you include workers' comp on our National Interstate and Vanliner business and our transportation business earning the right returns. But I've been very, very straightforward about the commercial auto liability side of that. We have a small underwriting loss that I want to see move to an underwriting profit. So some of the decisions being made on particularly some large accounts when the results aren't good with those, you can have a meaningful, positive impact by non-renewing or repricing something in that. So I'm serious about improving the margins there and improving the margins overall with our transportation business.

我一直非常堅持地說，就回報而言，我們的整體表現良好，特別是當你將工人補償納入我們的國家州際和 Vanliner 業務以及我們的運輸業務中時，我們獲得了正確的回報。但我對商業汽車責任的問題一直都非常直率。我們的承保損失很小，我希望它能轉變為承保利潤。因此，當某些大帳戶的結果不佳時，你可以透過不續約或重新定價來產生有意義的正面影響。因此，我認真考慮提高那裡的利潤率以及提高我們運輸業務的整體利潤率。

Okay. Understood. And that's helpful. Second question, I guess, if we look at Specialty Casualty according to the new segmentation, seems like there's been consecutive quarters of adverse development. Has there been sort of a deeper dive to address maybe it's elevated social inflation or some other components just to make sure that you've gotten your arms around it at this point?

好的。明白了。這很有幫助。我想，第二個問題是，如果我們根據新的細分來看待特殊傷亡險，似乎已經連續幾季出現不利的發展。是否有更深入的研究來解決可能是社會通膨上升或其他一些因素，只是為了確保你現在已經掌握了它？

So we're reacting every quarter to changes in potential loss trends and expenses. So when you look at the Specialty Casualty Group, there's really two things going on there. One is that we're still seeing good favorable development coming out of workers' comp, but not at quite the same levels that it was in previous quarters. So in previous quarters, you might have seen the workers' comp favorable development being higher than any kind of one-off adverse development in the other businesses. In this particular quarter and in the fourth quarter, we had favorable development in workers' comp, but then we had some adverse development in the social inflation-exposed businesses. So there is a little bit of adverse development, small amounts in a number of older accident years in our excess and surplus businesses and in some of our targeted markets businesses that are just bigger than the favorable development in workers' comp. Then the other thing is in our directors and officers executive liability business, that throws off a lot of favorable development, but we've been cautious there the last couple of quarters due to some of the things in that industry overall.

因此，我們每季都會對潛在損失趨勢和費用的變化做出反應。因此，當您查看專業傷亡組時，實際上有兩件事正在發生。一是，我們仍然看到工人補償方面出現了良好的發展，但還沒有達到前幾季的水準。因此，在前幾個季度，您可能已經看到工人補償的有利發展高於其他業務中任何一次性的不利發展。在這個特定季度和第四季度，我們在工人補償方面取得了良好的發展，但在受社會通膨影響的業務方面卻出現了一些不利的發展。因此，在我們的超額和盈餘業務以及一些目標市場業務中，一些較早的事故年份出現了一些不利的發展，數額較小，但比工人補償的有利發展要大一些。另一件事是，我們的董事和高階主管責任業務帶來了許多有利的發展，但由於整個產業存在的一些問題，過去幾季我們對此持謹慎態度。

Yeah and I think the other obvious thing is, when we got rid of the Specialty Other and consolidated that into the other segments, Specialty Casualty, the unfavorable development tied to our excess liability business over the last couple of quarters and this quarter now is consolidated into Specialty Casualty. I think actually, that probably was probably the biggest impact maybe in that segment from a combined ratio standpoint.

是的，我認為另一件顯而易見的事情是，當我們擺脫特殊其他業務並將其合併到其他部門，即特殊傷亡業務時，過去幾個季度與我們的超額責任業務相關的不利發展，現在本季度已合併到特殊傷亡業務中。我認為實際上，從綜合比率的角度來看，這可能是該領域最大的影響。

Okay. That's helpful. And I think the new segmentation is just a cleaner representation. So, thanks for that.

好的。這很有幫助。我認為新的細分只是一種更清晰的表達方式。所以，謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions) At this time, I'm showing no further questions. I would now like to turn it back to Diane Weidner. Your line is now open.

（操作員指示）目前，我沒有其他問題。現在我想把話題轉回給黛安‧韋德納。您的線路現已開通。

Thank you, and thanks to all of you for joining us this morning and for your good questions. We look forward to catching up with you again as we release our second quarter results later this year. Have a great day, everyone.

謝謝大家，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們並提出好問題。我們期待在今年稍後發布第二季業績時再次與您聯繫。祝大家有個愉快的一天。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝大家參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。