使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Analog Devices second-quarter FY16 earnings conference call, which is being audio webcast via telephone and over the web.
早安,歡迎參加 Analog Devices 2016 財年第二季財報電話會議,本次會議將透過電話和網路進行音訊直播。
I'd like to now introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Ali Husain, Treasurer and Director of Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.
現在我謹向大家介紹今天電話會議的主持人,財務長兼投資者關係總監阿里·侯賽因先生。先生,請您發言。
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Great. Thanks, Jennifer. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the Analog Devices second-quarter 2016 earnings conference call.
偉大的。謝謝你,珍妮弗。各位早安。感謝您參加Analog Devices 2016年第二季財報電話會議。
You can find our press release, relating financial schedules, and the investor toolkit, which includes additional information that we believe will be useful for investors, and all that is at investor.analog.com. As usual, I'm joined by ADI's CEO, Vincent Roche, and ADI's CFO, Dave Zinsner.
您可以在 investor.analog.com 上找到我們的新聞稿、相關財務報表和投資者工具包(其中包含我們認為對投資者有用的其他資訊)。像往常一樣,ADI 的執行長 Vincent Roche 和財務長 Dave Zinsner 也加入了我的行列。
So before we start, let's get through some disclosures. Please note: The information we're about to discuss, including our objectives and outlook, includes forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, including those discussed in our earnings release and our most recent 10-Q. These forward-looking statements reflect our opinion as of the date of this call, and we undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.
那麼在開始之前,先先做一些說明。請注意:我們即將討論的訊息,包括我們的目標和展望,包含前瞻性陳述。由於各種因素的影響,實際結果可能與這些前瞻性聲明有重大差異,這些因素包括我們在獲利報告和最新的 10-Q 文件中討論的因素。這些前瞻性陳述反映了我們截至本次電話會議之日的觀點,我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。
Our comments today will also include non-GAAP financial measures, which we have reconciled to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in today's earnings release, which we've posted at investor.analog.com. And with that, let's get started.
我們今天的評論還將包括非GAAP財務指標,我們已在今天的收益報告中將其與最直接可比較的GAAP財務指標進行了核對,該收益報告已發佈在investor.analog.com上。那麼,我們就開始吧。
Revenue in the second quarter totaled $779 million, which was up 1% sequentially and down 5% from the prior year. On a sequential basis, our business-to-business, or B2B, markets of industrial, automotive and communications infrastructure experienced broad-based demand, growing 9% sequentially and more than offsetting a weak consumer market.
第二季營收總計 7.79 億美元,季增 1%,年減 5%。從環比來看,我們的企業對企業(B2B)市場,包括工業、汽車和通訊基礎設施市場,需求全面成長,季增 9%,足以抵銷疲軟的消費市場。
So let me give you a little color on our performance by end market. While overall macro trends were fairly mixed during the quarter, ADI's highly diverse industrial markets grew 11% sequentially and represented 49% of revenue. All of the major application areas within industrial, such as factory automation and industrial instrumentation, grew sequentially in the seasonally strong second quarter. And we also had a particularly strong performance in the aerospace and defense vertical.
那麼,讓我來簡要介紹一下我們按終端市場劃分的業績。儘管本季整體宏觀趨勢喜憂參半,但 ADI 高度多元化的工業市場較上季成長 11%,佔總營收的 49%。在工業領域,所有主要應用領域,如工廠自動化和工業儀器儀表,在季節性強勁的第二季度均實現了環比增長。我們在航空航太和國防垂直領域也取得了特別強烈的成績。
The automotive market, at 18% of sales, grew 9% sequentially in the seasonally strong April quarter. Growth was broad based across all of our automotive focus applications of safety, ADAS, powertrain and infotainment.
汽車市場佔銷售額的 18%,在季節性強勁的 4 月季度環比增長 9%。在所有汽車重點應用領域,包括安全、ADAS、動力系統和資訊娛樂系統,都實現了全面成長。
Turning now to communications infrastructure, last quarter we had talked to you about a nascent recovery in this market, and we're happy to report that this trend continued during the second quarter. Revenue from communications infrastructure customers, at 23% of sales, increased 4% sequentially, with both wireless base station and wireline applications revenues increasing over the prior quarter. After troughing in July of last year, communications infrastructure revenues have grown at a slow and steady pace, and we believe we're still in the early stages of a recovery in this market. So in total, ADI's B2B markets of industrial, automotive and communications infrastructure grew 9% sequentially in the second quarter.
現在來說說通訊基礎設施,上個季度我們曾向大家談到該市場出現了初步復甦跡象,我們很高興地報告,這一趨勢在第二季度得以延續。來自通訊基礎設施客戶的收入佔銷售額的 23%,較上季成長 4%,其中無線基地台和有線應用收入均較上一季成長。通訊基礎設施收入在去年 7 月觸底後,一直保持緩慢而穩定的成長,我們認為我們仍處於該市場復甦的早期階段。因此,ADI 的工業、汽車和通訊基礎設施 B2B 市場在第二季度整體環比增長了 9%。
In the consumer market, revenues decreased 37% sequentially. At current quarterly run rates, we believe that our consumer business is at trough levels. In total, consumer represented 10% of revenue in the second quarter.
在消費市場,營收季減了37%。按照目前的季度運行速度,我們認為我們的消費者業務已處於低谷水平。第二季度,消費者收入佔總收入的 10%。
So, now I'd like to turn the call over to Dave for details of our financial performance in the second quarter. With the exception of revenue and other expense, Dave's comments on our second-quarter P&L line items will exclude special items, which, in the aggregate, totaled $33 million for the quarter.
現在,我想把電話交給戴夫,讓他詳細介紹我們第二季的財務表現。除了收入和其他支出外,戴夫對我們第二季損益表項目的評論將不包括特殊項目,該季度特殊項目總額為 3300 萬美元。
When comparing our second-quarter performance to our historical performance, special items are also excluded from prior-quarter and year-over-year results. And reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their comparable GAAP measures are included on Schedule E in today's earnings release.
在將我們第二季度的業績與歷史業績進行比較時,特殊項目也已從上一季和上年同期業績中剔除。這些非GAAP指標與其對應的GAAP指標的調節表已列入今天發布的收益報告中的附表E。
So, with that, Dave, it's all yours.
好了,戴夫,這下全歸你了。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Thanks, Ali, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝你,阿里,大家早安。
Our strategy to focus on diverse products, customers and markets enabled really good performance in the second quarter. We also repurchased $214 million of our stock in response to price volatility, which enabled the third consecutive quarter of share count reduction.
我們專注於多元化的產品、客戶和市場,這項策略使我們在第二季取得了非常好的業績。為因應價格波動,我們還回購了價值 2.14 億美元的股票,從而實現了連續第三個季度減少股票數量。
Revenue in the second quarter totaled $779 million, and diluted earnings per share was $0.64, with both results above the mid-point of guidance. Gross margins of 65.8% increased 360 basis points from the prior quarter, primarily on lower inventory reserves and on factory utilization rates that increased to the low 70%s.
第二季營收總計 7.79 億美元,稀釋後每股收益為 0.64 美元,兩項業績均高於預期中位數。毛利率為 65.8%,比上一季成長了 360 個基點,主要原因是庫存準備金減少以及工廠利用率提高到 70% 左右。
Inventory on a dollars basis decreased $5 million sequentially, and on a days basis, increased to 138 days, as we staged inventory for an anticipated consumer revenue ramp and managed Hittite-related last-time buys. We expect both dollars and days of inventory to decrease over the next two quarters. Turning to inventory in the distribution channel, inventory in distribution on a dollars basis was modestly higher than in the prior quarter, and weeks of inventory in distribution decreased to 7 weeks from the prior quarter's 7.5 weeks.
以美元計算,庫存環比減少了 500 萬美元;按天數計算,庫存週轉天數增加到 138 天,因為我們為預期的消費者收入增長準備了庫存,並管理了與赫梯人相關的最後採購。我們預計未來兩個季度,庫存金額和庫存週轉天數都會下降。從分銷管道的庫存來看,以美元計算,分銷管道的庫存略高於上一季度,分銷管道的庫存週數從上一季的 7.5 週減少到 7 週。
Operating expenses increased 3% sequentially, to $272 million, in line with our plan. Operating profit before tax of $240 million increased 12% sequentially, and as a percent of sales expanded 300 basis points to 30.8%. Other expense in the second quarter was approximately $13 million, and that represents the run rate of our net interest expense.
營運費用較上季成長 3%,達到 2.72 億美元,符合我們的計畫。稅前營業利潤為 2.4 億美元,季增 12%,佔銷售額的百分比成長 300 個基點至 30.8%。第二季其他支出約為 1300 萬美元,相當於我們淨利息支出的運作率。
Our second-quarter tax rate was approximately 12%. We expect our non-GAAP tax rate for the remaining two quarters of the year to be approximately 12.5%. Excluding special items, diluted earnings per share of $0.64 increased 14% over the prior quarter.
我們第二季的稅率約為 12%。我們預計今年剩餘兩季的非GAAP稅率約為12.5%。剔除特殊項目後,稀釋後每股收益為 0.64 美元,比上一季成長 14%。
Our business franchise forms the foundation of our strong balance sheet. At the end of the second quarter, we had $3.8 billion in cash, net cash of $2 billion, and a leverage ratio of 1.3 times EBITDA. We also have $1.7 billion of liquidity in the US, which we plan to use for investments in our Business and for general corporate purposes, including dividends, share repurchases, and acquisitions.
我們的特許經營權是我們穩健資產負債表的基礎。第二季末,我們擁有 38 億美元現金,淨現金為 20 億美元,槓桿率為 EBITDA 的 1.3 倍。我們在美國還有 17 億美元的流動資金,我們計劃將其用於業務投資和一般公司用途,包括股利、股票回購和收購。
During the second quarter, free cash flow as a percent of revenue increased 190 basis points from the prior year to 37.8%. Excluding a one-time item, over the last 12 months ADI has generated $1 billion in free cash flow. And over this period, we have also returned that $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, effectively returning 100% of free cash flow over the past 12 months.
第二季度,自由現金流佔營收的百分比比去年同期成長了 190 個基點,達到 37.8%。除一次性項目外,ADI 在過去 12 個月中產生了 10 億美元的自由現金流。在此期間,我們還透過分紅和股票回購將這 10 億美元返還給了股東,有效地返還了過去 12 個月 100% 的自由現金流。
During the quarter, we paid $130 million in dividends to shareholders. And earlier this week, our Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.42 per outstanding share of common stock. This will be paid on June 7, 2016, to all shareholders of record at the close of business on May 27. At the current stock price, this dividend represents an annual rate of about 3%.
本季度,我們向股東支付了 1.3 億美元的股息。本週早些時候,我們的董事會宣布向每股流通普通股派發 0.42 美元的現金股息。這筆款項將於 2016 年 6 月 7 日支付給截至 5 月 27 日營業結束時登記在冊的所有股東。以目前股價計算,該股息的年化殖利率約為 3%。
M&A is a key part of our strategy to accelerate technology leadership and revenue growth. During the quarter, we acquired SNAP Sensor, giving ADI the ability to provide very high dynamic range industrial imaging solutions in smart-city and smart-building applications.
併購是我們加速技術領先地位和收入成長策略的關鍵組成部分。本季度,我們收購了 SNAP Sensor,使 ADI 能夠在智慧城市和智慧建築應用中提供高動態範圍的工業成像解決方案。
So in summary, this was a good quarter on several fronts. The diversity and breadth of our Business, coupled with strong execution, enabled revenue and diluted earnings per share results that were above the mid-point of guidance, and our capital allocation strategy enabled a significant return of cash to shareholders.
總而言之,本季在多個方面都表現良好。我們業務的多樣性和廣度,加上強有力的執行,使得收入和稀釋後每股收益均高於預期中位數,而我們的資本配置策略也為股東帶來了可觀的現金回報。
So now turning to our outlook and our expectations for our third quarter, which, with the exception of revenue expectations, is on a non-GAAP basis and excludes special items that are outlined in today's release. We're planning for another quarter of sequential revenue growth in the third quarter.
現在讓我們來看看我們對第三季的展望和預期,除收入預期外,所有預期均以非GAAP準則為基礎,並且不包括今天發布的公告中概述的特殊項目。我們預計第三季營收將繼續保持環比成長。
In our B2B markets, we are seeing stable order rates across the industrial, automotive and communications infrastructure sectors. And as a result, we are planning for aggregate sequential demand in these B2B markets to be largely seasonal in the third quarter. Importantly, we expect our B2B markets, in the aggregate, to grow in the mid- to high-single digits on a year-over-year basis in the third quarter.
在我們的B2B市場中,工業、汽車和通訊基礎設施等行業的訂單量均保持穩定。因此,我們預計這些 B2B 市場的總環比需求在第三季將主要受季節性因素影響。重要的是,我們預計第三季我們的 B2B 市場整體將實現中高個位數年成長。
In the consumer market, good design traction in the portable sector leads us to plan for sequential revenue growth in this market, although it is likely that this revenue growth will be back-end loaded and occur late in the third quarter. In total, we're planning for revenue in the third quarter to increase sequentially, and be between $800 million and $840 million.
在消費市場,便攜式設備領域良好的設計勢頭促使我們計劃在該市場實現連續的收入成長,儘管這種收入成長可能會集中在第三季末,並會在第三季末出現。我們預計第三季總營收將季增,達到 8 億美元至 8.4 億美元。
We expect gross margins to remain stable to their second-quarter levels, despite utilization rates in the 60%s range, as we expect lower spend levels and manufacturing efficiencies to offset the lower absorption. We estimate that operating expenses will be up slightly in the third quarter, but that they will lag our expected sequential revenue growth, and we expect even greater operating leverage in the fourth quarter. Based on these estimates and excluding any special items, diluted earnings per share are planned to be in the range of $0.66 to $0.74.
儘管產能利用率在 60% 左右,但我們預計毛利率將保持在第二季的水平,因為我們預計較低的支出水平和生產效率將抵消較低的吸收率。我們預計第三季營運支出將略有上升,但將落後於我們預期的環比收入成長,並且我們預計第四季度營運槓桿作用將更大。根據這些估計,不計任何特殊項目,稀釋後每股收益計劃在 0.66 美元至 0.74 美元之間。
We firmly believe that our future success is within our control. To that end, we are partnering with customers, and innovating with impact, to drive business success and, more importantly, shareholder return. With a strong business model and a focus on the right end markets, we're confident that we can drive ADI's non-GAAP EPS to up to $5 by 2020.
我們堅信,未來的成功掌握在我們自己手中。為此,我們與客戶合作,進行具有影響力的創新,以推動業務成功,更重要的是,為股東帶來回報。憑藉強大的商業模式和對正確終端市場的關注,我們有信心在 2020 年將 ADI 的非 GAAP 每股收益提升至 5 美元。
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Great. Thanks, Dave.
偉大的。謝謝你,戴夫。
All right, folks, before we get to Q&A, let's run through the format. Please limit yourself to one question. If you have a follow-up question, we ask that you please re-queue. And again, we do this in the spirit of fairness so that all callers get to ask at least one of their questions. And we plan to run the call until 11 AM, so I think we've got plenty of time to get to everyone's questions.
好了各位,在進入問答環節之前,我們先來了解問答環節的形式。請只提一個問題。如果您還有後續問題,請重新排隊。再次強調,我們這樣做是為了公平起見,讓所有來電者至少有機會問一個問題。我們計劃通話持續到上午 11 點,所以我覺得我們有足夠的時間回答大家的問題。
And so with that, operator, let's start the Q&A session, and folks on the line can ask questions of either myself, Vince or Dave.
那麼,接線員,我們開始問答環節,電話那頭的聽眾可以向我、Vince 或 Dave 提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作說明)
Our first question comes from the line of Tore Svanberg with Stifel.
我們的第一個問題來自 Tore Svanberg 與 Stifel 的合作系列。
Tore Svanberg - Analyst
Tore Svanberg - Analyst
Yes, thank you, nice quarter. Just a question on your communications business. You said it's been steadily improving since, I guess, almost a year ago now, but that we're still in the early days of some good momentum there. So can you just elaborate a little bit on that? Perhaps maybe both on the wireless and on the wireline side, please?
是的,謝謝,不錯的季度。關於貴公司的通信業務,我有個問題想請教一下。你說情況從大約一年前開始就一直在穩步改善,但我們目前仍處於良好勢頭的初期階段。能再詳細解釋一下嗎?或許無線和有線兩方面都可以?
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Yes, so Tore, as you point out, I'll start, and Vince will, I'm sure, finish up. But we troughed around the third quarter of last year, and obviously, a lot of the weakness last year was related to China investigations. That seemed to run its course, and we've been steadily improving up to the levels that I think we saw right around the second quarter of last year. I think our position in the marketplace is quite strong. We literally have any OEM that's building base stations or other infrastructure communication equipment uses our radios. We also expect that over the next few quarters, we'll start to see a more meaningful rollout of small cell activity in China.
是的,托雷,正如你所指出的,我會先開始,我相信文斯會完成的。但我們在去年第三季左右跌至谷底,顯然,去年的疲軟很大程度上與中國的調查有關。這種情況似乎已經過去,我們一直在穩步改善,達到了我認為我們在去年第二季度左右看到的水平。我認為我們在市場上的地位相當穩固。實際上,所有生產基地台或其他基礎設施通訊設備的原始設備製造商都在使用我們的無線電產品。我們也預計,在接下來的幾個季度裡,我們將開始看到中國小型基地台活動有更實質的推廣。
We think that will be a good growth driver. We have the lead position, from a technology perspective, in integrated transceivers, which is going to be the technology of choice in that space. So I think we are in great competitive position. The small cell activity is going to help drive some momentum, just aggregately in the marketplace, and then this whole headwind that we saw in China has started -- has run its course, obviously, and we're starting to see the recovery there. So the momentum and the wind is behind our sails at this point in the communications space. Obviously, it can be lumpy at times. But right now, based on the order flow, we're quite optimistic about the com space.
我們認為這將是一個良好的成長動力。從技術角度來看,我們在整合式收發器領域處於領先地位,這將是該領域的首選技術。所以我認為我們處於非常有利的競爭地位。小型基地台的活動將有助於推動市場整體的發展勢頭,而我們在中國看到的整個逆風顯然已經過去,我們開始看到那裡的復甦。因此,在通訊領域,我們目前勢頭強勁,發展勢頭良好。顯然,它有時會出現凹凸不平的情況。但就目前訂單流情況來看,我們對電子商務領域相當樂觀。
Tore Svanberg - Analyst
Tore Svanberg - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.
下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。
Ambrish Srivastava - Analyst
Ambrish Srivastava - Analyst
Hi, I had a question on the guidance, and I'm just trying to understand the consumer guidance. And we're notoriously bad in trying to predict Apple units, but if you look at the guide, it looks like it could be a factor of either lower units than what most of us were modeling for or lower ASP. Or just the overbuild was so high that it's taking a longer time for all of that to bleed through the channel. What's the right way to think about it? Thank you.
您好,我有一個關於指導意見的問題,我只是想了解消費者指導意見。我們向來不擅長預測蘋果產品的銷量,但如果你看看這份指南,你會發現這可能是由於銷量低於我們大多數人的預期,或者平均售價較低造成的。或者說,過量的塗料太多,導致塗料需要更長時間才能完全滲入通道。正確的思考方式是什麼?謝謝。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
I think the way to think about -- I guess you're talking about the third quarter. I think, really, the third quarter, as you compare it against the third quarter of last year, is really the dynamics around when the buildup is going to occur this year versus when it occurred last year. I think because we were a new player in that particular application, with a new product, our customer ramped a few months earlier than typical for their semiconductor vendors, in an effort to make sure they had everything in the pipeline they needed. I think now, we're going to be more consistent with most of the other semi vendors out there that supply into this particular application.
我認為思考的重點是──我猜你指的是第三季。我認為,實際上,將第三季與去年第三季進行比較,真正重要的是今年的成長高峰出現的時間與去年成長高峰出現的時間之間的差異。我認為,因為我們是該特定應用領域的新玩家,擁有新產品,所以我們的客戶比他們的半導體供應商通常提前幾個月就開始量產,以確保他們所需的一切都已準備就緒。我認為現在,我們將與市場上大多數其他為該特定應用領域供貨的半導體供應商更加保持一致。
And really, that means that we really don't see the demand pick up until the July time frame. So it's probably going to be more of a end of third quarter and more into the fourth quarter this time, versus last year, where it was more of a ramp in the third quarter. I would point out that we have -- that we -- I should say suspect we have more dollar content in that particular application this year versus last year. And so from a BOM perspective, we will actually be in a better position. And so it obviously, at the end, depends on how the demand of the end product goes. But assuming that goes fine, we will actually see pretty good growth.
實際上,這意味著我們預計需求要到七月才會真正回升。所以這次的成長動能可能會持續到第三季末甚至第四季度,而去年同期則更是在第三季開始加速成長。我想指出的是,我們——應該說我們——懷疑今年我們在該特定應用中投入的美元金額比去年要多。因此,從物料清單的角度來看,我們實際上會處於更有利的地位。所以,最終結果顯然取決於最終產品的需求。但假設一切順利,我們實際上會看到相當不錯的成長。
Ambrish Srivastava - Analyst
Ambrish Srivastava - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Amit Daryanani with RBC Capital Markets.
下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Amit Daryanani。
Garo Toomajanian - Analyst
Garo Toomajanian - Analyst
This is Garo on behalf of Amit. Thanks for letting me ask a question. I guess looking to industrial business, it's been down year on year for a few quarters now. And it looks like given guidance, it might grow year on year in the July quarter. Will we see the growth accelerate as we get into the back half of 2016 and then into 2017?
我是加羅,代表阿米特。謝謝允許我提問。我覺得從工業領域來看,它已經連續幾季同比下滑了。根據指導意見,該公司7月的季度業績可能年增。隨著我們進入 2016 年下半年以及 2017 年,我們會看到成長加速嗎?
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Industrial is hard to predict out 4 weeks, so I don't know that we're ready to predict what it's going to do out several quarters. I would say that yes, from our guidance, you can interpret that we suspect the industrial business is going to be up year over year in the mid single digits or so. Ali? Yes. And as a result, we think we're back in a recovery phase there. It had been weak, probably related to the phenomena around oil and gas weakness, and maybe some currency issues.
工業市場很難預測未來 4 週的走勢,所以我認為我們無法預測未來幾季的走勢。是的,根據我們的指導意見,您可以理解為我們認為工業業務的年增長率將達到個位數中段左右。阿里?是的。因此,我們認為我們已經重新進入了恢復階段。它一直很疲軟,可能與石油和天然氣價格疲軟以及一些貨幣問題有關。
That seems to have run its course, and as a result, we think we're back on a recovery trend in the industrial space. The one area of that business that's actually beaten the macro headwinds has been the aerospace and defense business. That's done very well for us, even despite the weakness we've seen out there on the macro side. And as it looks out into the future, it looks like that business will continue to be a pretty strong business for us.
這種情況似乎已經過去,因此,我們認為工業領域又回到了復甦的趨勢。在所有業務領域中,真正戰勝宏觀經濟逆風的領域是航空航太和國防業務。即使宏觀經濟形勢疲軟,這對我們來說也非常好。展望未來,這項業務似乎仍將是我們一項非常強勁的業務。
Garo Toomajanian - Analyst
Garo Toomajanian - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.
下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。
John Pitzer - Analyst
John Pitzer - Analyst
Yes, good morning, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a question. Dave, I want to talk a little bit about the gross margin guidance for the July quarter. If I look on a year-over-year basis, gross margins are going to be down a little bit, year on year, despite the fact that I think you said in your prepared comments that the B2B business should be up, actually, high single digits year over year. Can you just help me square that circle? And help me better understand why margins wouldn't perform better, if B2B is showing such good year-on-year growth?
是的,各位早安。謝謝允許我提問。戴夫,我想和你談談七月季的毛利率預期。如果按年計算,毛利率將略有下降,儘管我認為您在準備好的評論中說過,B2B 業務實際上應該同比增長,達到較高的個位數。你能幫我解決一下這個圓的方問題嗎?如果B2B業務的年成長如此強勁,為什麼利潤率卻沒有表現得更好?請幫我更好地理解這一點。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Yes, it's a good question, John. We're actually going to bring utilization down, in the third quarter, into the 60%s level. It was actually, I think, in the 70%s last year. And that's really, when we looked at our inventory levels, even though most of the inventory build was related to things within our control, like ramping up or the consumer ramp, and also for the buildup related to some foundry transfers that are going to occur related to our Hittite business. We really wanted to keep inventory in check.
是的,約翰,你問得好。我們計劃在第三季將利用率降至 60% 的水平。我記得去年這個數字好像在70%左右。當我們審視庫存水準時,儘管大部分庫存增加與我們可控的因素有關,例如產能提升或消費者產能提升,以及與我們的赫梯業務相關的一些代工廠轉移造成的庫存增加,但實際上,大部分庫存增加都與我們可控的因素有關。我們非常希望控制庫存。
And so we thought it would be a good idea to bring the inventory down in the products that get -- or related to the products that get manufactured internally. So that's really why we approached it that way. Now, we're probably going to bring it down -- I don't know -- somewhere in the 10 percentage point range, at least, and that normally would have a 100 basis point negative impact on us. But what we're going to -- what we think we can do is take some of the costs out of the factory in the third quarter, and we think we'll make some improvements, from an efficiency perspective. And those things combined will offset a lot of that headwind, and as a result, we think we'll be generally flat.
因此,我們認為降低內部生產的產品或相關產品的庫存是一個好主意。所以這就是我們採取那種方法的原因。現在,我們可能會將其降低——我不知道——至少降低 10 個百分點左右,而這通常會對我們產生 100 個基點的負面影響。但我們認為,我們可以在第三季降低工廠的一些成本,並且從效率的角度來看,我們認為我們會做出一些改進。這些因素加在一起將抵消許多不利因素,因此,我們認為整體上會保持穩定。
John Pitzer - Analyst
John Pitzer - Analyst
Helpful, thank you.
很有幫助,謝謝。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Sure.
當然。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.
下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Hi guys, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to dig in a little bit on automotive. Over the last couple of quarters, you talked about expecting a bit of a second half lift in that business. But now, you're talking about seasonal and aggregate for Q3. And frankly, given the rest of the guidance you're talking about, if industrial is up in the mid single digits year over year, and the overall B2B is up in the mid to high.
大家好,感謝你們回答我的問題。我想稍微深入了解一下汽車產業。在過去的幾個季度裡,你曾多次提到預計該業務在下半年會有所成長。但現在,你們談的是第三季的季節性和整體情況。坦白說,考慮到你提到的其他指導意見,如果工業同比增幅在個位數中段,而整體 B2B 業務同比增長幅度在中高段。
Like I'm coming our with auto probably flat to down year over year, and probably down decently in sequentially, which I think would be seasonal. But neither of those things seem consistent with a lift in the back half. So are you backing off on that statement that you made previously? Or how should we be thinking about automotive, as we move through the rest of the year?
我覺得汽車行業可能比去年持平或下降,環比可能大幅下降,我認為這是季節性因素造成的。但這兩件事似乎都與後半程的提升不符。所以你是要收回你之前說過的話嗎?或者,在今年剩下的時間裡,我們該如何看待汽車產業?
Vincent Roche - CEO
Vincent Roche - CEO
Yes, Stacy, we've had stellar growth. We've pointed out before that there's one particular area that we've had a headwind. We believe now that headwind has abated. Our -- we've had good growth in areas like infotainment, the events driver assistance in the powertrain area, we've had good growth. Specifically, in active and passive safety, we've had some issues.
是的,斯泰西,我們取得了驚人的成長。我們之前指出過,在某個特定領域我們遇到了阻力。我們認為現在逆風已經減弱。我們在資訊娛樂、活動駕駛輔助、動力系統等領域都取得了良好的成長。具體來說,在主動安全和被動安全方面,我們遇到了一些問題。
And as I said, I believe the headwind is -- has abate there now. So my sense is that with the programs we have in place, we'll start to see -- we've bottomed out in the auto [MEMS] area, in terms of the decline. So we will be back on a growth track over the coming months, and into the -- during Q4. So I think the worst is behind us there, and we'll get back into a decent growth pattern from here on in through FY17.
正如我所說,我認為那裡的逆風現在已經減弱了。所以我的感覺是,憑藉我們現有的計劃,我們將開始看到——就下滑幅度而言,汽車[MEMS]領域的下滑已經觸底。因此,在接下來的幾個月裡,我們將重回成長軌道,並在第四季繼續保持成長勢頭。所以我認為最糟糕的時期已經過去了,從現在到 2017 財年,我們將恢復到良好的成長模式。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
But is it that your Q3 outlook for auto was probably flat to down year over year then? [Seems to be.]
但你對第三季汽車產業的預期是否可能與去年同期持平或下降?[似乎是這樣。 ]
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
(multiple speakers) No, Stacy, let me just point out -- let me just make a slight correction here. I think when Dave was talking about mid to high singles in the third quarter and the year-over-year basis, I think the comment was specific to the B2B market. Industrial, we expect to be up, on a year-over-year basis, in the very low single digits. And so as a result, I think when you look out to the third and fourth quarter, what we're expecting to see in the automotive business is to see some modest year-over-year growth that we think we can accelerate through the back half of the year here. I hope that -- does that help?
(多人發言)不,史泰西,讓我指出──讓我在這裡稍作更正。我認為,當 Dave 談到第三季中高單筆交易額以及同比數據時,他的評論特別指 B2B 市場。我們預期工業部門年增幅將非常低,僅為個位數。因此,我認為展望第三季度和第四季度,我們預計汽車業務將實現適度的同比增長,並且我們認為可以在下半年加速成長。希望這樣能有所幫助?
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Yes, thank you.
是的,謝謝。
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Sure.
當然。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Craig Hettenbach with Morgan Stanley.
下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的克雷格·赫滕巴赫。
Craig Hettenbach - Analyst
Craig Hettenbach - Analyst
Yes, thanks. Just a question on the increase in cash returns, just really stepping it up to the last couple quarters. Clearly, you guys are generating a lot of cash, and have a very strong balance sheet. But just wanted to get your sense of how much is opportunistic versus how much may be providing a read on the M&A side? What might be out there, and how you're approaching that?
好的,謝謝。我有一個關於現金回報成長的問題,尤其是在最近幾個季度,現金回報確實大幅成長。顯然,你們賺了很多錢,資產負債表非常穩健。我只是想了解一下,您認為其中有多少是機會主義行為,又有多少可能反映了併購方面的趨勢?可能存在哪些挑戰,以及你如何應對?
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
We still have $3.8 billion of cash, so it's not like it's massively influential to how we're thinking about M&A. We're still interested in acquisitions, and that's part of our strategy. Obviously, we have a high bar on those acquisitions, so they don't come every quarter. But we do want to have some dry powder available to us, to make those opportunistic acquisitions that A, can be very strategic for us, in terms of driving growth and are very synergistic with what we're doing from a customer perspective. But B, also deliver a very good financial performance, and hopefully accelerate our earnings growth.
我們仍然擁有 38 億美元的現金,所以它不會對我們思考併購的方式產生巨大影響。我們仍然對收購感興趣,這也是我們策略的一部分。顯然,我們對這類收購的要求很高,所以它們不會每季都有發生。但我們確實希望手頭上有一些資金,以便進行一些機會性收購,這些收購對我們來說可能具有非常重要的戰略意義,可以推動成長,並且與我們正在從客戶角度開展的工作具有很強的協同效應。但B也帶來了非常好的財務業績,有望加速我們的獲利成長。
As far as just the level of buyback that we had in the last couple of quarters, I'd say it's a couple things. One, it's somewhat programmatic, in that when the stock has these dips in the stock price, we take advantage of that and buy stock back. And so I'd say over the last couple of quarters, there were those periods of time where that happened. And on the average, we bought a bit more back than we had been in the past. And also, we just fundamentally believe that the best is yet to come for us, and we think that $5 target is a doable target for us.
就過去幾季的股票回購規模而言,我認為這有兩個原因。第一,這在某種程度上是程序化的,因為當股票價格下跌時,我們會利用這一點買回股票。所以我覺得,在過去的幾季裡,確實出現過這樣的情況。平均而言,我們回購的數量比過去略多。而且,我們從根本上相信,我們最好的日子還在後頭,我們認為 5 美元的目標對我們來說是可以實現的。
And if that's a doable target, then buying at this price is a pretty attractive price. So those two things combined drove us to be a little bit more aggressive with the buyback over the last couple quarters, in response to both the stock price and our expectations on value.
如果這是個可行的目標,那麼以這個價格買入就相當有吸引力了。因此,這兩個因素結合起來,促使我們在過去幾季採取了更積極的股票回購策略,以應對股價和我們對股票價值的預期。
Craig Ellis - Analyst
Craig Ellis - Analyst
Got it. Thanks for all of the color, Dave.
知道了。謝謝你帶來的繽紛色彩,戴夫。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Sure.
當然。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Craig Ellis with B. Riley.
你的下一個問題來自 Craig Ellis 和 B. Riley。
Craig Ellis - Analyst
Craig Ellis - Analyst
Thanks for taking the question, guys. I wanted to follow up on the increase on both automotive and industrial. Those businesses, in the outlook, look like they are back to nice year-on-year growth. So my question is, since those are both businesses that have significant application diversity, where are you seeing the strongest year-on-year gains? And where, within those businesses, do you still have sub-segments that would be below last year's level? And what's the prospect for those to reach new highs? Thank you.
謝謝各位回答這個問題。我想跟進汽車和工業領域的成長。從前景來看,這些企業似乎已經恢復了良好的年成長。所以我的問題是,由於這兩個行業的應用範圍都很廣,那麼你們認為哪些行業的年度成長最為強勁?在這些業務中,還有哪些細分領域低於去年的水平?那麼,這些數字達到新高的可能性有多大?謝謝。
Vincent Roche - CEO
Vincent Roche - CEO
Specific to the industrial area, we've seen tremendous growth in the aerospace and defense area over the last number of quarters, and that's been also bolstered through the acquisition of Hittite. That's helped us a lot. We've been able to combine the franchises of both companies and eke more growth out there. I'd say broad based instrumentation, across the globe, has done well. And if you extract oil and gas from the factory and processes automation side of things, we've seen good growth there, too.
具體到工業領域,在過去的幾個季度裡,我們看到航空航太和國防領域取得了巨大的成長,而收購 Hittite 也進一步促進了這一成長。這對我們幫助很大。我們已經能夠將兩家公司的特許經營權合併,並進一步拓展業務成長。我認為,在全球範圍內,廣泛的儀器應用都取得了良好的效果。如果從工廠和流程自動化方面提取石油和天然氣,我們也看到了良好的成長。
And geographically, I would say in the recent term here, both Europe and China have seen particularly strong growth. On the muted side there, I'd say, on the slower growth side of things, the automatic test equipment and energy sectors have been more turbulent. Energy is flatter, but the ATE thing has been quite turbulent. So that's the picture, in terms of the puts and takes on the markets, the sub-sectors and geographies there. As I said earlier, in terms of automotive, we've seen stellar growth in infotainment, in powertrain and advanced driver assistance.
從地理角度來看,我認為近年來歐洲和中國都出現了特別強勁的成長。就成長較為緩慢的方面而言,我認為自動測試設備和能源產業波動較大。能源市場較為平穩,但ATE市場卻相當動盪。以上就是市場、各個次產業和地區的買賣情況。正如我之前所說,在汽車領域,我們在資訊娛樂、動力系統和高級駕駛輔助方面都取得了顯著成長。
And we've been dealing with this headwind on the automotive safety -- the passive safety and active safety side of things. Geographically, if I look at automotive again, America has been very respectable, Europe has been stronger, and China and Japan have been relatively flat. So that gives you, I think, a picture of both of those sectors, from a sub-segment and geographic standpoint.
我們在汽車安全方面一直面臨這種不利因素——包括被動安全和主動安全方面。從地理角度來看,如果我再看一下汽車產業,美國一直表現非常出色,歐洲表現更強勁,而中國和日本則相對穩定。我認為,這可以從細分市場和地理角度,對這兩個行業進行一番了解。
Craig Ellis - Analyst
Craig Ellis - Analyst
Thanks for the color, Vince.
謝謝你提供的色彩,文斯。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.
下一個問題來自美國銀行的維韋克·阿亞。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Thank you for letting me ask a question. Just on the Q3 outlook, I think you may have addressed it at different parts of the call, but could you just give us more color on each of the B2B segments? How you expect them to trend on a sequential basis? And more importantly, how that compares to what you thought, say, 2 or 3 months ago about the segments? Thank you.
謝謝您允許我提問。關於第三季的展望,我想您可能在電話會議的不同環節中已經提到過,但您能否為我們詳細介紹一下各個 B2B 細分市場的情況?你預計它們接下來的發展趨勢會如何?更重要的是,這與你兩三個月前對這些細分市場的看法相比如何?謝謝。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Yes, sure, I can take a crack at it. So industrial, I would say, sequentially, is probably going to be up in the low single digits. Automotive is likely to be down in the low single digits. I'd point out that's probably better than what they normally see seasonally, given we have July in our quarter and that tends to be a soft month for the automotive market. And then coms is probably close to mid single digits, somewhere in that range.
當然,我可以試試。因此,我認為工業成長可能會在個位數低點。汽車業可能會出現個位數低幅的下滑。我想指出的是,考慮到我們季度中包含7月份,而7月份通常是汽車市場的淡季,所以這可能比他們通常看到的季節性情況要好。那麼通訊業務可能接近個位數中段,大概在這個範圍內。
I'd say it's pretty consistent with where we thought we would be a few months ago. Nothing has changed. The macro is hanging in there nicely. The order flow in all three of these markets has been pretty good. We're obviously always running the business cautiously, in the event that something in the macro gives us a hiccup. But that hasn't happened, and we're, I guess, pleasantly surprised or happy that's how things panned out for us. And so hopefully, this continues.
我覺得這和我們幾個月前的預期大致一致。一切都沒有改變。宏運作良好。這三個市場的訂單流都相當不錯。我們顯然一直謹慎經營業務,以防宏觀經濟情勢出現任何意外情況。但這種情況並沒有發生,我想,我們對事情最終的走向感到驚喜或高興。希望這種情況能夠持續下去。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Steve Smigie with Raymond James.
下一個問題來自 Raymond James 公司的 Steve Smigie。
Vince Celentano - Analyst
Vince Celentano - Analyst
This is Vince Celentano on for Steve. I had a question. Has there been any more progress in getting your Force Touch technologies [opted] at OEMs, either within mobile or in other end markets? And I guess in general, what's your plan, going forward, with this technology?
這是Vince Celentano替Steve發言。我有個問題。在行動裝置或其他終端市場中,貴公司的 Force Touch 技術在 OEM 廠商中是否取得了進一步進展?那麼,總的來說,你們未來在這項技術方面有什麼計畫呢?
Vincent Roche - CEO
Vincent Roche - CEO
That product source is based on a core technology that we use in multiple applications, in industrial, automotive and so on and so forth. So it's not a case -- the product sector is specific to one application, but the technology is useable in many, many different applications. It's based on our precision signal processing expertise that we've been developing for decades. So as I said, we're all the time looking to diversify, be it consumer, be it industrial. But whichever sector, all those products are based upon the core high performance precision signal processing platform that we've been developing for decades.
該產品來源基於一項核心技術,我們將其應用於工業、汽車等多個領域。所以這不是一個典型的例子──產品領域專門針對某一特定應用,但技術可以應用在許多許多不同的應用領域。這是基於我們數十年來不斷開發的精密訊號處理技術。正如我所說,我們一直在尋求多元化發展,無論是消費品領域還是工業領域。但無論哪個領域,所有這些產品都基於我們幾十年來一直在開發的核心高性能精密訊號處理平台。
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Yes, and Vince, just as a point, we don't comment on individual customers or products. So appreciate the question, but we'll move on to the next caller. Thanks.
是的,還有,文斯,需要說明的是,我們不對個別客戶或產品發表評論。感謝您的提問,但我們會繼續接聽下一位來電者。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.
下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Hi, guys. You gave great color on the wireless side of your coms business. Can you just give us a similar update on what you're seeing on the wireline side? And maybe remind us what the split between those two portions of your coms business end up being these days?
嗨,大家好。你對通訊業務的無線通訊方面進行了精彩的描述。您能否也為我們介紹一下您在有線勘探方面看到的情況?或許您還能提醒我們一下,如今貴公司傳播業務的這兩部分最終分別佔多少比例?
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Yes, so two-thirds of our business is wireless, and then the other one-third is wired. There's several applications within wired, but probably the most prominent is control that goes into the optical signal. Obviously, that market is doing quite well, because there's a move towards 100 gig, and that's obviously beneficial to. So it's been on a pretty steady -- the good news on this one is, it hasn't had the lumpiness that the wireless business has had, so its been on a pretty steady growth trajectory. It moves around based on seasonality, but year to year, it's been pretty steady and solid.
是的,我們三分之二的業務是無線業務,另外三分之一是有線業務。有線應用很多,但最突出的可能是對光訊號的控制。顯然,這個市場發展得相當不錯,因為市場正在朝著 100G 邁進,這顯然是有利的。所以它一直保持著相當穩定的成長——好消息是,它沒有像無線業務那樣出現波動,因此一直保持著相當穩定的成長軌跡。雖然會隨季節波動,但從長遠來看,它一直相當穩定。
Vincent Roche - CEO
Vincent Roche - CEO
Yes, we've been successful at moving between the various generations of optical transceivers, from 2.5 gig right up to 100 gig now and beyond. So we've built a nice franchise, again based on our precision signal processing portfolio, where we're providing sophisticated and very, very precise control of the optical signal change. So that's the primary part, as Dave said, of our wireline business. Other aspects in which we have a good position are in the data pats and control pats in cable infrastructure. But by far, wireline is dominated by the optical technology that we -- the optical products that we provide.
是的,我們已經成功地實現了光收發器各代之間的過渡,從 2.5 Gbps 一直到現在的 100 Gbps 以及更高階的。因此,我們再次憑藉我們精密的訊號處理產品組合,建立了一個不錯的特許經營體系,在該體系中,我們提供對光訊號變化的複雜且非常非常精確的控制。正如戴夫所說,這是我們有線業務的主要部分。我們在電纜基礎設施的資料通道和控制通道方面也處於有利地位。但就目前而言,有線通訊領域主要由我們提供的光學技術——光學產品——所主導。
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Sure.
當然。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Romit Shah with Nomura Securities.
下一個問題來自野村證券的羅米特·沙阿。
Romit Shah - Analyst
Romit Shah - Analyst
Yes, thank you. I just wanted to talk about consumer. My understanding is, January 15 was the last quarter before you guys started booking Force Touch revenues. And in that quarter, consumer was about $95 million. This last quarter, consumer was down to $80 million. So it implies that the business overall is down about 16% from that January 15 baseline. And I guess excluding Force Touch, your legacy consumer business is down even more than that. And so I was hoping you guys could talk about the performance of that business, and legacy consumer in particular, and your expectations going forward?
是的,謝謝。我只是想談談消費者。據我了解,1 月 15 日是你們開始確認 Force Touch 收入之前的最後一個季度。當季消費者支出約 9,500 萬美元。上個季度,消費者支出下降至 8,000 萬美元。這意味著整體業務量比 1 月 15 日的基準水準下降了約 16%。我猜,如果排除 Force Touch 功能,你們的傳統消費者業務下滑幅度還會更大。所以,我希望你們能談談這項業務的業績,特別是傳統消費者業務的業績,以及你們對未來的預期?
Vincent Roche - CEO
Vincent Roche - CEO
Yes, legacy consumer has been -- it's a huge number of different applications. We have a steady, strong business in areas like high end digital consumer for home, and for Enterprise. And that's been doing well, and continues to do well. It's a very, very modest investment for the Company, so my sense is, that's been growing at the low single digits for many, many years.
是的,傳統消費性應用數量龐大,種類繁多。我們在高端家用數位消費品和企業級產品等領域擁有穩定、強勁的業務。而且這項業務一直運作良好,並將繼續保持良好勢頭。對於公司而言,這是一筆非常非常小的投資,所以我的感覺是,多年來,它的成長率一直保持在個位數。
My expectation -- again, given that it looks a lot like our B2B business, in terms of design cycles, product cycles -- that will continue to be a modest growth story for ADI in the years ahead. And it leverages. We do very, very little specific product development for that sector. In terms of the remainder of the business, it's lumpier by nature, and we have a good -- as best we can tell, we read the signals pretty well. And we're managing supply and demand on the basis of what we're reading in those more volatile portable consumer applications.
我的預期是——再次強調,就設計週期、產品週期而言,它看起來很像我們的 B2B 業務——未來幾年 ADI 將繼續保持溫和成長。而且它還能利用槓桿作用。我們很少針對該領域進行專門的產品開發。至於業務的其他部分,其性質決定了它波動較大,而且我們——據我們所知——我們對訊號的解讀相當準確。我們根據在這些波動性較大的便攜式消費應用領域中觀察到的情況來管理供需。
Romit Shah - Analyst
Romit Shah - Analyst
I appreciate the comments. I just -- I don't know that I'm coming away with a clear understanding for why the legacy business has contracted this much over what's been, what, five or six periods?
感謝您的評論。我只是——我不知道我是否能清楚地理解為什麼傳統業務在過去的五、六個時期內萎縮了這麼多?
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Yes, it has been a headwind for 6 years or so, 6 or 7 years ago, mainly because of the digital still camera business, which has been a -- obviously, everybody is using their phones to take most of their pictures, and so that business has -- perhaps has waned a bit. It's down, at this point now, as we sit in 2016, a pretty nominal level at this point. And so I wouldn't anticipate it being much of a headwind going forward. There is a certain amount of people that will always buy digital SLR cameras. I'm looking over at Ali, because he's one of them. But -- and so at this point now, it's probably stabilized.
是的,這在過去六、七年裡一直是個不利因素,主要是因為數位相機業務的發展——顯然,現在每個人都用手機拍攝大部分照片,所以這個業務可能有所萎縮。截至目前(2016 年),該數值已降至相當低的水平。因此,我預計這不會成為未來發展的一大阻力。總是會有一部分人會購買數位單眼相機。我看向阿里,因為他也是他們中的一員。但是——所以現在,情況可能已經穩定下來了。
Romit Shah - Analyst
Romit Shah - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Sure.
當然。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Doug Freedman with Sterne Agee.
下一個問題來自 Sterne Agee 公司的 Doug Freedman。
Doug Freedman - Analyst
Doug Freedman - Analyst
Hi guys, thanks for taking my question. If I could ask a question regarding the consumer business, as well. When we look at the business coming back in, with handsets contributing materially here, how do we think about the incremental margin? Both up, but as well as when it ramps down? Especially given the actions you seem to be taking, as far as managing the factory, which may be not coincident with the fab -- with the ramp-up that you're going to see in revenues?
大家好,感謝你們回答我的問題。如果可以的話,我想問一個關於消費者業務的問題。當我們審視業務復甦的情況時,尤其是手機業務的大幅成長,我們該如何看待增量利潤率?上升時如此,下降時又如此?尤其考慮到你目前在工廠管理方面採取的行動,這可能與晶圓廠的運作——以及你即將看到的營收成長——並不一致?
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Yes. So this -- all of this product gets manufactured in a foundry, a third-party foundry, so it doesn't necessarily affect utilization levels. So really, it comes down to what we price the product at, and what we pay the foundry in the back end to produce the parts. And the margins are respectable margins, and there's a little bit of mix degradation by having that business, but it's not significant. I think it runs in the tens of basis points up or down, based on whether we have it in a quarter, or we have a meaningful amount in a quarter or not a meaningful amount in the quarter. But other than that, I don't -- wouldn't suspect we have much volatility in gross margins from it.
是的。所以,所有這些產品都是在第三方鑄造廠生產的,因此不一定會影響產能利用率。所以說,歸根結底,這取決於我們如何為產品定價,以及我們最終支付給代工廠生產零件的費用。而且利潤率相當可觀,雖然開展這項業務會造成產品組合略微劣化,但這並不重要。我認為其波動幅度在幾十個基點左右,取決於我們是否在一個季度內擁有該資產,或者我們在一個季度內擁有的資產數量是否可觀。但除此之外,我不認為這會對毛利率造成太大的波動。
Doug Freedman - Analyst
Doug Freedman - Analyst
I guess another way, Dave, just to ask the question. If we were to exclude the impact of this business year on year, would you expect gross margins to be up next year?
戴夫,我想換個方式問你吧。如果排除這項業務年比的影響,您預計明年的毛利率會上升嗎?
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Excluding consumer, would we expect gross margins to be up?
剔除消費者因素,我們是否預期毛利率會上升?
Doug Freedman - Analyst
Doug Freedman - Analyst
Yes, if I were to exclude the impact of the consumer ramp up and ramp down, would I expect to see some gross margin improvement, year on year?
是的,如果我排除消費者需求激增和減少的影響,我是否可以預期毛利率會逐年增加?
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Yes, yes.
是的,是的。
Doug Freedman - Analyst
Doug Freedman - Analyst
Great. Thank you so much.
偉大的。太感謝了。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Sure.
當然。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Chris Danely with Citi.
下一個問題來自花旗銀行的克里斯·丹利。
Philip Lee - Analyst
Philip Lee - Analyst
Good morning, guys. This is Philip Lee calling on behalf of Chris. You mentioned just the inventory was down to 7 weeks this quarter. How is this versus maybe last year? And how do you expect it to trend the rest of the year?
各位早安。我是菲利普李,代表克里斯打電話。您提到本季庫存僅夠維持7週。與去年相比,情況如何?你預計它在今年剩餘時間的趨勢會如何?
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Yes, typically, the second quarter tends to be the trough of just the inventory levels, just because it tends to be a really big quarter for ship-outs. And we're, on a ship-in basis, running it pretty consistently. So I wouldn't glean too much from it, other than the fact that it's at a healthy level. 7 weeks is exactly where it should be in the second quarter, and that's very healthy. My guess is that in the third quarter, it will start to trend back up to 7 1/2 weeks, and then stabilize until next year's second quarter.
是的,通常情況下,第二季度往往是庫存水準的低谷期,因為這通常是出貨量很大的一個季度。我們一直以船運方式持續運作。所以,除了它處於健康水平之外,我不會從中得出太多結論。7 週是第二季應有的時長,這非常健康。我估計第三季度,這一數字將開始回升至 7.5 週,然後趨於穩定,直到明年第二季度。
Philip Lee - Analyst
Philip Lee - Analyst
Thanks.
謝謝。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Sure.
當然。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Good morning guys, thanks for taking my question. On the strength in industrial, you mentioned aerospace and defense as an area of particular strength. Was this segment up year over year? And was it more commercial or defense related programs that are driving the strength? I know that there's some programs both in commercial satellite and radar. There's also some defense program initiatives, like some fighter jet upgrades and so on. What -- and then what's the program pipeline look like for the remainder of the year? Thank you.
各位早安,感謝你們回答我的問題。關於工業實力,您提到航空航太和國防是特別強的領域。該細分市場較去年同期有所成長嗎?推動這項成長的主要是商業項目還是國防項目?我知道商業衛星和雷達領域都有一些相關項目。此外,還有一些國防項目計劃,例如一些戰鬥機升級等等。那麼,今年剩餘時間的節目安排會是什麼樣的呢?謝謝。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Okay, I'll take a little bit of a crack at that, and anybody can join in. It was up year over year in the second quarter. It likely will be up year over year for the full year, unless something changes significantly. Most of the growth that we've seen has been in high performance RF, specific to military applications. We got a lot of that technology, obviously, when we acquired Hittite. They were already servicing that market in a relatively meaningful way, and their design wins over several years ago are starting to translate into revenue, and that's obviously driven the growth in that business.
好的,我來試著解釋一下,任何人都可以參與。第二季年增。除非出現重大變化,否則全年很可能會比去年同期成長。我們看到的大部分成長都來自高效能射頻技術,特別是針對軍事應用領域。很顯然,我們在收購赫梯公司時獲得了許多這類技術。他們已經以相對有意義的方式服務於該市場,並且幾年前贏得的設計訂單開始轉化為收入,這顯然推動了該業務的成長。
The expectation, over the next 3 to 5 years, is quite positive. I think the areas that -- where radar applications are deployed are areas where the military is spending more in. And so as a result that, coupled with the fact that now we have a really commanding position in that marketplace, leads us to assume that this market, for us, is going to be a nice driver of growth over the next 3 to 5 years.
未來3到5年的預期相當樂觀。我認為,雷達應用部署的領域,正是軍方投入更多資金的領域。因此,再加上我們現在在該市場中佔據了絕對優勢地位,我們認為,在未來 3 到 5 年內,這個市場將成為我們成長的良好驅動力。
Vincent Roche - CEO
Vincent Roche - CEO
Commercial aircraft is another space where more and more of our technology is being used for all different kinds of signal processing, radio upgrades, control and so on and so forth. And also satellite, commercial satellite, is an area that's becoming more and more dominant, if you like, and particularly for commercial application. So I think overall, when you look at what's been happening and what will happen, that aerospace and defense business will continue to grow for the Company at good rates.
商用飛機是另一個領域,我們的技術越來越多地被用於各種訊號處理、無線電升級、控制等等。此外,衛星,特別是商用衛星,正變得越來越重要,尤其是在商業應用領域。所以總的來說,我認為,縱觀過去和未來,航空航太和國防業務將繼續為公司帶來良好的成長。
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Sure.
當然。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Mark Lipacis with Jefferies.
下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的馬克·利帕西斯。
Mark Lipacis - Analyst
Mark Lipacis - Analyst
Hi, thanks for taking my question. Perhaps for you, Dave. You were successful, in the past, in finding tax efficient ways to use overseas cash for M&A. And I was wondering if you would describe the M&A environment today as being a target rich one? And of the targets that you're looking at, is there a good potential to use overseas cash tax efficiently, like you have in the past? Thank you.
您好,感謝您回答我的問題。或許對你來說是這樣,戴夫。過去,你成功地找到了利用海外資金併購的節稅方法。我想問一下,您是否會將當今的併購環境描述為目標資源豐富的環境?在您考察的目標中,是否有可能像過去一樣,有效地利用海外現金進行稅務規劃?謝謝。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Good question. There are lots of ideas in the pipeline. It goes through a number of stage gates. And as it gets closer and closer to the point at which we're going to pull the trigger on it, those bars get higher and more difficult to get through. So I think that -- from an ADI perspective, I don't think anything has changed, in terms of whether you'll see us do a ton of acquisitions on a very frequent basis.
問得好。有很多想法正在醞釀。它要經過多個階段的關卡。隨著我們越來越接近最終實施的時機,這些門檻也越來越高,越來越難以達到。所以我認為——從 ADI 的角度來看,我認為沒有任何改變,我們仍然會非常頻繁地進行大量收購。
I just don't think that's our model. But there are areas that we think make a lot of sense, in terms of acquisitions, and those are the areas we're focused on. And so I suspect we will be doing them, from time to time, to help augment what we're doing organically. From a acquisition -- from a tax perspective, it's always [back] specific as to whether -- which cash we can use depends on where it's located and where their operations are, and so forth. But to the extent that it checks all of the boxes, I'm sure we could do something similar to what we did with Hittite.
我認為那不是我們應該採取的模式。但我們認為,在收購方面,有些領域非常有意義,而這些領域正是我們關注的重點。因此,我懷疑我們會不時地這樣做,以幫助補充我們正在自然而然地做的事情。從收購的角度來看——從稅務角度來看,我們可以使用哪些現金總是要具體分析,這取決於現金的所在地、其營運地點等等。但如果它符合所有條件,我相信我們可以像對待赫梯人那樣對待它。
Mark Lipacis - Analyst
Mark Lipacis - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
And your next question comes from Ian Ing with MKM Partners.
下一個問題來自 MKM Partners 的 Ian Ing。
Ian Ing - Analyst
Ian Ing - Analyst
Yes, thanks a lot. Had a question on Hittite. What was the magnitude over the last time buys in the April quarter? What are the expectations in subsequent quarters? And as customers start looking at developing 5G infrastructure, are there some opportunities here for Hittite and microwave products? I know largely, microwave is for back-haul at the moment in communications. Thanks.
是的,非常感謝。我有一個關於赫梯的問題。與四月季度上次購買相比,此次購買的規模有多大?對未來幾季的預期是什麼?隨著客戶開始考慮開發 5G 基礎設施,Hittite 和微波產品是否有機會?我知道,目前微波在通訊領域主要用於回程連結。謝謝。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Yes, Hittite will help us a lot in the 5G space. And given our strong position in 4G, and our strong relationship with all the OEMs who are developing 5G applications, we think we're in a great position to really take a commanding position in the 5G space. On the -- I don't have the number off the top of my head, unless you know it, Ali, off the top of your head. But the second quarter represented the peak amount of builds that we were going to have associated with Hittite. And so as quarters progress now, it should slowly be coming down.
是的,赫梯語將在 5G 領域為我們提供很大幫助。鑑於我們在 4G 領域的強大地位,以及我們與所有開發 5G 應用的 OEM 廠商的牢固關係,我們認為我們處於非常有利的位置,能夠在 5G 領域真正佔據主導地位。關於——我一時想不起來那個號碼,除非你知道,阿里,你一時想不起來。但第二季是我們與赫梯相關的建造數量的峰值。因此,隨著季度的推進,它應該會慢慢下降。
I'm going to guess it added somewhere between 7 and 10 days to our inventory levels, because of those transitions. And as I said, you'll see a steady improvement. The one thing is, we built up a lot of inventory for stuff that has long life cycles, and so it will take some time for us to get all the way down to zero. It might take 5 years, maybe even 7 years, to get down to zero. But the good news is that the headwind aspect of the inventory build is behind us, and now becomes a tail wind, going forward.
我估計由於這些過渡,我們的庫存水準增加了 7 到 10 天。正如我所說,你會看到穩定的改善。有一點需要說明,我們囤積了許多生命週期較長的商品庫存,因此我們需要一些時間才能將庫存全部清除。可能需要 5 年,甚至 7 年才能降至零。但好消息是,庫存增加帶來的不利因素已經過去,現在變成了順風,我們將繼續前進。
Ian Ing - Analyst
Ian Ing - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Steven Chin with UBS.
下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Steven Chin。
Steven Chin - Analyst
Steven Chin - Analyst
Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. A question on the communications wireless business. I was wondering, just given some of the comments around small cells, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about your revenue sensitivity to deployments regarding small cells versus base station? Just given the different level of content and also the unit deployments? And also, do you have any further visibility into, beyond the current quarter, regarding CapEx for either small cells or macro base station?
您好,早安,感謝您回答我的問題。關於無線通訊產業的問題。鑑於先前關於小型基地台的一些評論,我想請您談談小型基地台與基地台部署對收入的影響程度?只是因為內容水平不同以及部隊部署不同嗎?另外,您對本季之後的小型基地台或宏基地台的資本支出是否有任何進一步的了解?
Vincent Roche - CEO
Vincent Roche - CEO
Yes, I think we're in a very good position in both macro cells and small cells. There's -- as more and more of the usage of cellular equipment is in building, there may be a switch to small cells over time, but it's not going to be a gross switch from macro to small. I think there's always going to be a mix of both. So we're very well positioned, irrespective of whether our customers are deploying macro or small cells.
是的,我認為我們在宏觀細胞和微觀細胞領域都處於非常有利的地位。隨著越來越多的蜂窩設備在建築物中使用,隨著時間的推移,可能會轉向小型基地台,但這不會是從宏基地台到小型基地台的徹底轉變。我認為兩者總是會兼具。因此,無論我們的客戶部署的是宏基地台還是小型基地台,我們都處於非常有利的地位。
And in terms of content, obviously, the small cell has less content than the large cell. But we have -- in terms of the radio, we've got almost the entire radio in the small cell, given the strength of our software defined transceiver technologies. So I think what you'll see is the deployment will be -- will continue on the macro side. There will be an upsurge in small cell over the remainder of this year into next year. And we're very well positioned, irrespective of whether it's macro or small. What was the second part of the question?
就內容而言,顯然小單元格的內容比大單元格少。但是就無線電而言,鑑於我們軟體定義收發器技術的強大功能,我們幾乎將整個無線電功能整合到了小型基地台中。所以我認為你會看到部署將會——將繼續在宏觀層面進行。今年剩餘時間到明年,小型蜂窩網路的使用將會激增。無論規模大小,我們都處於非常有利的地位。問題的第二部分是什麼?
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
CapEx.
資本支出。
Vincent Roche - CEO
Vincent Roche - CEO
CapEx? I think the way to look at the CapEx discussion is, in terms of innovation, the innovation in base stations is really happening at the radio level, to increase spectral efficiency and flexibility. So there's an increasing amount of the hardware spend going into the radio over time. And with the strength that we have in the franchise we've got in terms of mixed signal and RF and microwave technologies, I think we're very well positioned, given the strength of our relationships and the fact that we've skewed R&D, over the last 5 years, more heavily towards wireless applications.
資本支出?我認為看待資本支出討論的方式是,就創新而言,基地台的創新實際上發生在無線電層面,目的是提高頻譜效率和靈活性。因此,隨著時間的推移,越來越多的硬體支出投入收音機領域。憑藉我們在混合訊號、射頻和微波技術方面的實力,以及我們強大的合作關係,我認為我們處於非常有利的地位。此外,在過去的 5 年裡,我們加大了研發投入,更專注於無線應用。
Irrespective of what happens, I believe it will be a fairly stable CapEx environment, in terms of the ratio of services software and hardware. But I think we're well positioned, as a Company, to grab additional share there, given, as I said, the strength of our technology and customer positions.
無論發生什麼,我相信就服務軟體和硬體的比例而言,資本支出環境將相當穩定。但我認為,鑑於我們強大的技術實力和客戶地位,作為一家公司,我們完全有能力在那裡獲得更多的市場份額。
Steven Chin - Analyst
Steven Chin - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.
您的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。
Ambrish Srivastava - Analyst
Ambrish Srivastava - Analyst
(multiple speakers) Yes, hi, thanks, I just had -- yes, I'm here. Sorry, Ali. I just had a couple of follow-ups. Just on the A&D strength, is this more primarily a Hittite benefiting from your channel? Or is it more a result of the last time buys? And then a little bit longer term, when do we expect to see jointly developed products between Hittite and ADI? And I realize it takes awhile for that to pan out.
(多人)是的,嗨,謝謝,我剛剛——是的,我在這裡。對不起,阿里。我剛剛還有幾個後續問題想問。單就A&D實力而言,這主要是赫梯人從你的頻道中受益嗎?或者,這更多是上次購買的結果?那麼從更長遠的角度來看,我們預計何時才能看到 Hittite 和 ADI 共同開發的產品呢?我知道這需要一段時間才能見效。
And then a second quick follow-up. Dave, you mentioned that in consumer, you'll have more content. Is that because you are imagine ASD going up? Are you designing out sockets from -- that somebody else had? Thank you.
然後是第二次快速跟進。戴夫,你提到在消費者領域,你會有更多的內容。是因為你想像自閉症譜系障礙(ASD)的發生率會上升嗎?你是不是在設計插座時沿用了別人用過的插座?謝謝。
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
That's a lot of questions, Ambrish. Okay. So on the aerospace and defense side, I would characterize the growth as products designed back in the Hittite days, in a lot of cases. Some on our own products, back many years ago that now -- because it takes a while for that stuff to turn around and become revenue. And so that's really what has driven the performance at this point. It hasn't been related to Hittite being a part of ADI yet.
安布里什,你問的問題真是不少。好的。因此,在航空航太和國防領域,我認為這種成長在許多情況下可以被視為赫梯時代設計的產品。我們自己的一些產品,早在很多年前就開始了,現在——因為這些東西需要一段時間才能轉化為收入。所以,這才是目前為止推動球隊表現的真正原因。目前還沒有證據顯示赫梯人是ADI的一部分。
The opportunity pipeline has significantly expanded because of the acquisition of Hittite, and because of our ability to both sell more of what Hittite sells or makes into that market, and also what we make, and try to drive that into that market. And so I think that we'll start to see some revenue synergies next year. And probably be relatively modest next year, but begin to ramp significantly over time. And it's probably on the opportunity side of peak revenues. It's probably $100 million of opportunity, so not all of that we'll close on, but it's a significant amount of synergies that we were able to get by combining Hittite and Analog Devices.
由於收購了 Hittite,以及我們能夠將 Hittite 銷售或生產的更多產品以及我們自己生產的產品銷售到該市場並努力將其推向該市場,因此機會管道大大擴展了。所以我認為明年我們將開始看到一些收入綜效。明年可能相對溫和,但隨著時間的推移會開始大幅增長。而且這可能正處於營收高峰期的機會階段。這其中可能蘊藏著 1 億美元的機會,雖然我們不可能全部實現,但透過合併 Hittite 和 Analog Devices,我們能夠獲得相當可觀的協同效應。
Vincent Roche - CEO
Vincent Roche - CEO
Yes, in terms of your product development question, the combination of Hittite and ADI on the design side of things. We acquired the technology to enable us to broadly apply microwave technology and build a real leadership franchise in the high end of communications infrastructure, general communications, even industrial instrumentation. So we already have very, very good synergy between the design teams, in looking at the next 5G application.
是的,關於您提出的產品開發問題,在設計方面,我們將採用 Hittite 和 ADI 的組合。我們獲得了這項技術,使我們能夠廣泛應用微波技術,並在高端通訊基礎設施、通用通信,甚至工業儀器儀表領域建立真正的領導地位。因此,在展望下一代 5G 應用方面,我們的設計團隊之間已經建立了非常非常好的綜效。
In the 5G application, the next generation of defense driver assistance, where there's a lot of microwave technology needed. So we'll start to see the first combined products hit the market over the coming year. And beyond there, I think you'll see more complete solutions from ADI, the combination of the old ADI and Hittite together, in many, many different markets.
在 5G 應用中,下一代國防駕駛輔助系統需要大量的微波技術。因此,我們將在未來一年內看到首批組合產品上市。除此之外,我認為你會看到 ADI 推出更完善的解決方案,也就是將原 ADI 和 Hittite 結合起來,應用於許多不同的市場。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Okay, so then on the consumer side, we can't comment specifically on whether or not we're displacing somebody, and if so, who. But I can tell you that we have more sockets in the next generation than we did in the last generation, and that's what's driving the BOM to be higher this time.
好的,那麼就消費者方面而言,我們無法具體評論我們是否會取代某些人,如果會,又會取代誰。但我可以告訴你,下一代產品中的插槽數量比上一代產品多,這也是導致這次物料清單成本更高的原因。
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
And Ambrish, just a slight housekeeping note for me. When you talked about the last time buys, those are last time buys that we made on foundry. So that didn't impact the revenues, really, in the aerospace and defense side. So okay, thanks for the question. Next caller?
Ambrish,我這裡有個小小的注意事項要提醒你。你剛才提到的上次採購,指的是我們在代工廠的最後一次採購。所以,這並沒有真正影響到航空航太和國防領域的收入。好的,謝謝你的提問。下一位來電者?
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.
下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Hi guys. Thanks. One more quick follow-up on consumer. You said that the ramp was going to happen late in Q3, which seemingly would imply, potentially, a fairly big Q4 sequential ramp, as you annualize that. Can you give us some feeling for what the trajectory of that consumer business into Q4 ought to look like? And do you think that it could be -- would it be up or would it be down year over year versus last year? Because I think Q4 of last year was the peak.
嗨,大家好。謝謝。關於消費者問題,再補充一點。你說過產能爬坡將在第三季末進行,這似乎意味著,如果按年計算,第四季產能將出現相當大的環比成長。您能否大致預測該消費業務在第四季的發展軌跡?你認為與去年相比,今年會上升還是下降?因為我認為去年第四季是巔峰。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Yes. Definitely, it's hard to predict exactly how the trajectory is going to work out. But I would say it's going to be -- you could -- if we end up shipping in the last, say, 2 or 3 weeks of July, we're going to probably be shipping at that level through the entire fourth quarter. So you can interpret that what you want. But it's going to be a meaningful ramp in the consumer space in the fourth quarter, at least as things have lined up so far.
是的。當然,很難準確預測發展軌跡會如何演變。但我認為——你可以這麼說——如果我們最終在七月的最後兩三週開始發貨,那麼我們整個第四季度的發貨量可能都會保持在那個水平。所以你可以根據自己的理解來解讀。但至少就目前的情況來看,第四季消費者領域的成長將會非常顯著。
On a year-over-year basis, I think given the fact that there was probably -- or shipped in -- I think we can safely say in the fourth quarter, versus what was consumed. And that drove a lot of inventory in the channel. I think on a year-over-year basis, we're likely to be down in the consumer space. But I think from a sequential basis, it will look quite nice.
從同比來看,考慮到可能已經——或者已經運抵——我認為我們可以肯定地說,在第四季度,與消費量相比。這導致渠道庫存大幅增加。我認為,從年比來看,我們在消費領域的業績可能會下滑。但我認為從順序來看,效果會相當不錯。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
And so just to clarify, so we're talking something like a $30 million sequential increase in Q3, all of which may be happening, potentially, in the last couple of weeks? So if we're annualizing that for 3 months in the following quarter, if you're shipping at that rate, this could be -- we're talking something like $100 million, maybe more, sequentially into Q4, that we could see in terms of increase? Is that the right way to think about that?
所以為了澄清一下,我們說的是第三季環比增長約 3000 萬美元,而所有這些都可能在過去幾週內發生?因此,如果我們把這個數字按年化,計算下一季三個月的產量,如果按照這個速度發貨,那麼到第四季度,我們可能會看到——我們說的是大約 1 億美元,甚至更多,在季度環比增長?這樣想對嗎?
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
That's -- it's obviously tough to predict, but you're probably in the zip code at this point.
這——顯然很難預測,但你現在很可能就在這個郵遞區號區域內。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Got it. Thank you.
知道了。謝謝。
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
And by the way, if that did happen, as Dave mentioned, I think, in the prepared remarks, the operating margin leverage we expect to see in the fourth quarter would be pretty strong. All right. Thanks, Stacy. Next caller?
順便說一句,如果這種情況真的發生,正如戴夫在準備好的演講中提到的那樣,我認為我們預計在第四季度看到的營業利潤率槓桿作用將會非常強勁。好的。謝謝你,史黛西。下一位來電者?
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.
下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。
John Pitzer - Analyst
John Pitzer - Analyst
Just staying on the topic of consumer, and for both Dave and Vince, investors have been somewhat critical about your exposure here over the last two or three quarters, because it tends to be volatile, tends to be commoditized. We always worry about how long you can hold on to the business. You guys have done a great job talking about the trajectory for this fiscal year. And when you initially got this business, I think you talked about 2 years of visibility.
繼續談到消費者這個話題,對於戴夫和文斯來說,在過去的兩三個季度裡,投資者對你們在這個領域的投資持批評態度,因為這個領域波動性較大,而且商品化程度較高。我們總是擔心你能把生意維持多久。你們在討論本財年的發展軌跡方面做得非常出色。我記得你當初接手這家公司的時候,我說過要先讓公司維持兩年的知名度。
I'm wondering if you could just talk, longer term, how we should think about the consumer bucket? And Dave, you've talked about, in the past, your need just to be strategically engaged with certain customers, to broaden out your footprint. Maybe you can talk about your ability to have broadened out that footprint with this customer, as we go into FY17?
我想請您談談,從長遠來看,我們應該如何看待消費者群體?戴夫,你過去曾談到,你需要與某些客戶進行策略性互動,以擴大你的業務範圍。或許您可以談談在進入 2017 財年之際,您是如何擴大與這位客戶的業務範圍的?
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Yes, so obviously, they don't give us a ton of visibility. But next year -- or as much as we can tell, looks to be in pretty good shape for 2017 for this customer. And as I said, we actually got more sockets this time around, and held the prior socket, all of which are high performance parts that -- and that's really what we're trying to focus on with that customer. And with any customer, quite honestly, not only in the consumer space but outside of the consumer space, in the B2B markets.
是的,很顯然,他們沒有給我們太多的曝光機會。但就我們目前所知,明年這位客戶的 2017 年前景應該會相當不錯。正如我所說,這次我們實際上獲得了更多的插座,並且保留了之前的插座,所有這些都是高性能部件——而這正是我們真正想為該客戶著重關注的。坦白說,對於任何客戶,不僅是消費者領域,也包括消費者領域以外的 B2B 市場。
And that's -- we're going to maintain that strategy, going forward. And I think there's enough to win, at that customer and in the consumer space, to drive growth in the consumer business. And as you would point out, longer term, there -- and it's not even just this particular customer, but there are a handful of customers that have -- certainly have consumer exposure, but that are more broadly focused in other markets, because a lot of this stuff is converging.
而且,我們將繼續堅持這項策略。我認為,在客戶和消費者領域,我們有足夠的優勢去贏得市場,進而推動消費者業務的成長。正如您所指出的,從長遠來看,這不僅僅是指這位特定的客戶,而是指一些客戶——他們當然有消費者接觸,但他們更廣泛地關注其他市場,因為很多東西都在融合。
And so we want to be attached to those customers, as they think up new ideas that we can come up with new technologies to help define their parts and make them better, and that's what we are going to do. And so that's where we direct our research and development dollars. It worked out for us here, and my guess is there will be other things that we do for this customer and other customers, and other markets, that will help them and help us.
因此,我們希望與這些客戶保持緊密聯繫,當他們提出新想法時,我們可以提出新技術來幫助他們定義零件並使其變得更好,而這正是我們將要做的。所以,這就是我們投入研發經費的方向。這對我們來說是件好事,我猜我們以後還會為這位客戶、其他客戶以及其他市場做其他事情,這既能幫助他們,也能幫助我們。
Vincent Roche - CEO
Vincent Roche - CEO
As the user experience becomes more and more sophisticated in these applications, that's in our wheelhouse. We play on the edge of the physical and the digital, so it gives us more opportunity. But as Dave pointed out, we're looking for the really hard to solve problems in these applications, where we can hopefully get multiple generations' worth of momentum, and where we can get the kind of margin performance ratio that we expect.
隨著這些應用程式的使用者體驗變得越來越複雜,這正是我們的專長所在。我們遊走於實體與數字的邊緣,這給了我們更多的機會。但正如戴夫所指出的那樣,我們正在尋找這些應用中真正難以解決的問題,希望能夠獲得幾代人的發展勢頭,並獲得我們期望的利潤率。
John Pitzer - Analyst
John Pitzer - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.
下一個問題來自美國銀行的維韋克·阿亞。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Thanks for letting me ask another question. Just [with] longer term, is the current top line growth rate acceptable to you? And if it is not, do you think it's time to consider larger and more transformative acquisitions? And how do you think about the [various] accretion metrics, or anything else that we should keep in mind? Because the macro environment stays somewhat sluggish, and you managed to navigate through that quite well. But I'm just curious whether even with this navigation, is the top line growth acceptable to you? And if not, what can you do about it? Thank you.
謝謝您允許我再問一個問題。長遠來看,目前的營收成長率您能接受嗎?如果不是,您認為現在是時候考慮規模更大、更具變革性的收購了嗎?那麼,您如何看待(各種)吸積指標,或者還有其他我們應該注意的事項?因為宏觀環境仍然有些遲緩,而你卻能很好地應對這種情況。但我很好奇,即使採用這種策略,您能否接受這樣的營收成長?如果不行,你能做些什麼?謝謝。
Vincent Roche - CEO
Vincent Roche - CEO
We've said publicly that we are committed to generating over $4 of EPS by 2020. We remain committed to that. And when we first offered that target to the investor community back in 2014, we said that we expected our revenue, our top line, to grow at the rate of 2 to 3 times GDP, whatever that is. And we remain optimistic about that. We're investing at a level, in terms of R&D and field -- customer engagement. But -- and given what we see in terms of the design activity, the customer engagement activity, we remain committed to that top line target.
我們曾公開表示,我們致力於在 2020 年實現每股收益超過 4 美元。我們始終致力於此。2014 年,我們首次向投資者提出這一目標時,我們表示,我們預計我們的收入(即營收)將以 GDP 的 2 到 3 倍的速度成長,無論 GDP 是多少。我們對此仍然保持樂觀。我們在研發和現場客戶互動方面都投入了大量資源。但是—鑑於我們在設計活動和客戶互動活動方面所看到的,我們仍然致力於實現這一總體目標。
Another component of, obviously, being able to get towards the EPS target over time is to do careful M&A. And so that is the mix, and we are committed to our targets. We believe in the growth story. And as I said, we will use our balance sheet wisely, to get some more high performance technology that will enable the Company to grow at an even greater rate over time.
顯然,要逐步達成每股盈餘目標,另一個關鍵因素是進行謹慎的併購。這就是我們的策略,我們將致力於實現我們的目標。我們相信成長前景。正如我所說,我們將明智地利用我們的資產負債表,獲取更多高性能技術,使公司能夠隨著時間的推移以更快的速度成長。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
As far as just the acquisition measures, we use -- there's probably 15 of them that we use. Obviously, accretion plays a factor in it. We look at the relative valuations of the cash flow of the business that we are looking at, to determine whether we're paying a good price for it. We want businesses that grow, and that help us drive our growth faster than we are growing today. So that's a key component that we believe that can happen. And obviously, we think we're looking for things where we can get synergies.
就採購措施而言,我們使用的措施大概有 15 種。顯然,吸積作用在其中扮演一定角色。我們會檢視目標企業現金流的相對估值,以確定我們是否已經支付了合理的價格。我們想要的是能夠成長的企業,並且能夠幫助我們實現比現在更快的成長。所以,這是我們認為能夠實現的關鍵因素。顯然,我們希望找到能夠產生綜效的合作機會。
Sometimes that's cost, sometimes it's cost and revenue. And so those are things that influence us. Sometimes, when we're doing tuck-ins like SNAP Sensor, which we talked about in the prepared remarks, there isn't much in terms of financials to hang your hat on in the early stages. And so then, it really comes down to whether or not the technology really was going to make a difference in our customers' application, and ultimately the user experience. And that tends to rule the day, when it comes to those tuck-ins.
有時是成本,有時是成本和收益。所以這些都是影響我們的因素。有時,當我們進行像 SNAP Sensor 這樣的小規模投資時(我們在準備好的發言稿中談到了這一點),在早期階段並沒有太多財務數據可以依靠。因此,關鍵在於這項技術是否真的能對我們客戶的應用以及最終的使用者體驗產生影響。而到了給孩子們蓋被子的時候,這種情況往往就成了主流。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Is there any push from customers to have more integrated solutions? That's where I was coming from, that if you are the leader in converters, does it help to gain access to other areas because that's what your customers might be asking you to do?
客戶是否有要求採用更整合的解決方案?我的想法是,如果你是轉換器領域的領導者,那麼進入其他領域是否有幫助?因為你的客戶可能會要求你這麼做。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Yes, it's integrating all the time. We're developing, we're moving in more and more to a systems level solution, and so that requires us to have more and more technology. Some of which we do acquire, a lot of which we actually build internally.
是的,它一直在進行整合。我們正在發展,我們正越來越多地轉向系統級解決方案,因此這需要我們擁有越來越多的技術。有些是我們收購的,很多是我們內部開發的。
Vincent Roche - CEO
Vincent Roche - CEO
Yes, I think what we acquire depends very much on the type of segment we're addressing. The reason we bought SNAP Sensor was to help us move up the stack to make our solution more complete. We've got a very strong DSP high performance signal processing technology platform and product base, onto which we needed to add some algorithmic value in that particular imaging application. So yes, what we acquire, and what customers are asking us to do, very much is application and market segment dependent.
是的,我認為我們收購什麼很大程度上取決於我們所針對的細分市場類型。我們購買 SNAP Sensor 的原因是為了幫助我們提昇技術棧,使我們的解決方案更加完善。我們擁有非常強大的 DSP 高效能訊號處理技術平台和產品基礎,我們需要在該特定成像應用中為其添加一些演算法價值。所以,是的,我們所獲取的東西,以及客戶要求我們做的事情,很大程度上取決於應用和市場區隔。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
All right. Next caller?
好的。下一位來電者?
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Steve Smigie with Raymond James.
下一個問題來自 Raymond James 公司的 Steve Smigie。
Steve Smigie - Analyst
Steve Smigie - Analyst
Great, thanks for the follow-up. So last quarter, you mentioned that orders were positive, but that you felt that your customers were a little bit worried about the overall weaker macro. Have you seen any changes in their general outlook since the last call?
太好了,謝謝你的後續跟進。所以上個季度,您提到訂單狀況良好,但您覺得您的客戶對整體疲軟的宏觀經濟狀況有些擔憂。自上次通話以來,您是否觀察到他們的整體態度有任何變化?
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
No, I think they are pretty much the same. They are cautiously optimistic. The macro has held in there. The order flow has been good. Customers think they're going to -- I think in aggregate, think they're going to see modest growth this year. And -- but they are obviously very cautious. They're keeping their inventory levels lean. We see, obviously, that at the [Disty] level, as well. So that's -- I think it's pretty consistent. It's been pretty consistent through the whole year, really.
不,我認為它們幾乎是一樣的。他們持謹慎樂觀態度。宏觀經濟情勢依然穩定。訂單流一直不錯。顧客們認為——我認為總體而言——他們今年將會看到溫和成長。但他們顯然非常謹慎。他們保持著較低的庫存水準。顯然,在[Disty]層面上也是如此。所以,我認為這相當一致。今年以來情況一直相當穩定。
Steve Smigie - Analyst
Steve Smigie - Analyst
Got it, thank you.
明白了,謝謝。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Sure.
當然。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.
下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Hi, guys, thanks for letting me ask a follow-up. Dave, one follow-up to a question you answered earlier on the gross margin side. I know you said you're taking utilization down by roughly 10% sequentially in the third quarter. Can you just talk a little bit about why you're doing that, considering that you said that the coms business is in the early stage of recovery? You're now past the headwinds on the auto side, where you had the design loss on the passive safety, et cetera. If everything in your core is starting to grow year over year, what led you to the decision to cut utilization that substantially?
大家好,感謝允許我提出後續問題。Dave,關於你之前回答的毛利率問題,我還有一個後續問題。我知道你說過第三季產能利用率將季減約 10%。鑑於您曾說過通訊產業正處於復甦初期,您能否稍微談談您這樣做的原因?你現在已經克服了汽車方面的逆境,例如被動安全等方面的設計損失。如果你的核心業務各項指標都在逐年成長,是什麼原因促使你決定大幅降低使用率?
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
I don't know that it's significant, but we had 138 days of inventory, and we want to get that level down. And we felt like we should address it now rather than wait. I would -- like I said in the prior question -- or answer to the prior question, I think a lot of the inventory is related to product that was manufactured in foundry. But nevertheless, we've got to work all of the levers to get the inventories to where we want them to be, and this seemed like an appropriate place to pull it down. The coms one doesn't influence us a ton, because there isn't much of that that gets done in internal foundries -- or internal fabs.
我不知道這是否很重要,但我們的庫存量達到了 138 天,我們希望降低這個水準。我們覺得應該現在就解決這個問題,而不是等待。就像我在上一個問題中說的——或者說,對於上一個問題的回答,我認為很多庫存都與鑄造廠生產的產品有關。但無論如何,我們都必須動用一切手段,使庫存達到我們想要的水平,而這裡似乎是降低庫存的合適地方。通訊方面對我們影響不大,因為內部代工廠或內部晶圓廠很少做這方面的工作。
Really, it's in the industrial space, which is plugging along at a low growth rate at this point. So it seemed like we weren't taking a big risk by adjusting the production there. I would say that I think it's a one-quarter event. When you take down inventory levels, and you take down the utilization rates, generally, you shut the factory down. And so we'll be taking, I think, on average, 2 weeks of shutdown in our internal fabs. I would suspect that we will be back to not doing that in the fourth quarter, and so utilization should come back up again in the fourth quarter.
實際上,它屬於工業領域,而工業領域目前的成長率很低。所以,調整那裡的生產似乎並沒有冒太大的風險。我認為這是一個季度性事件。當庫存水準下降,利用率降低時,通常情況下,工廠就會停產。因此,我認為,我們內部的晶圓廠平均將停產 2 週。我估計第四季度我們將不再這樣做,因此第四季度的利用率應該會再次上升。
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Great, and one other housekeeping one. You were gracious enough to say your content is going up with a specific customer. Relative to what you had in the prior generation, did the tent increase just order of magnitude a similar amount of the prior socket? Half, double? Any sort of color, directionally, would be helpful.
太好了,還有一項客房服務。您非常客氣地告訴我,您的內容將提供給特定的客戶。與上一代相比,帳篷的容量是否增加了一個數量級,與上一代插座的容量增加了一個數量級?一半,雙份?任何有方向性的顏色都會有所幫助。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Yes, I probably have to avoid these kind of pricing things. It's not to the level of the prior socket, let's put it that way.
是的,我可能得避免這類定價方面的事。這麼說吧,它還沒有達到前一個插槽的水平。
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Perfect, thank you.
太好了,謝謝。
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Dave Zinsner - CFO
Sure.
當然。
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Ali Husain - Treasurer and Director of IR
Great, it looks like Ross was our last question, so we'll close out the call. As a reminder, our third quarter 2016 results will be issued on August 17 at 8:00 AM, similar to this quarter, and we'll have the earnings call at 10:00 AM. So that does it for us here. Thanks for joining us this morning. We look forward to talking to you soon.
太好了,看來羅斯的問題是我們的最後一個問題,所以讓我們結束通話吧。再次提醒大家,我們將於 8 月 17 日上午 8:00 發布 2016 年第三季業績報告,與本季類似,並將於上午 10:00 召開業績電話會議。以上就是我們今天的全部內容。感謝您今天早上收看我們的節目。我們期待盡快與您聯繫。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's Analog Devices conference call. You may now disconnect.
謝謝。今天的Analog Devices電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。