Agree Realty Corp (ADC) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Agree Realty Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Hawthorne, Director of Corporate Finance. Please go ahead, Brian.

早上好，歡迎參加 Agree Realty 2023 年第三季電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議交給公司財務長 Brian Hawthorne。請繼續，布萊恩。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Agree Realty's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Before turning the call over to Joey and Peter to discuss our results for the quarter, let me first run through the cautionary language. Please note that during this call, we will make certain statements that may be considered forward-looking under federal securities law. Our actual results may differ significantly from the matters discussed in any forward-looking statements for a number of reasons. Please see yesterday's earnings release and our SEC filings, including our latest annual report on Form 10-K for a discussion of various risks and uncertainties underlying our forward-looking statements.

謝謝。大家早安，感謝您參加 Agree Realty 的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。在將電話轉給喬伊和彼得討論我們本季度的業績之前，讓我先回顧一下警告性的語言。請注意，在本次電話會議中，我們將做出某些根據聯邦證券法可能被視為前瞻性的聲明。由於多種原因，我們的實際結果可能與任何前瞻性陳述中討論的事項有顯著差異。請參閱昨天的收益發布和我們向 SEC 提交的文件，包括我們最新的 10-K 表格年度報告，以了解我們前瞻性陳述背後的各種風險和不確定性。

In addition, we discuss non-GAAP financial measures, including core funds from operations or core FFO, adjusted funds from operations or AFFO, and net debt to recurring EBITDA. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release, website and SEC filings. I'll now turn the call over to Joey.

此外，我們還討論了非 GAAP 財務指標，包括來自營運或核心 FFO 的核心資金、來自營運或 AFFO 的調整後資金，以及經常性 EBITDA 的淨債務。這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳可以在我們的收益發布、網站和 SEC 文件中找到。我現在會把電話轉給喬伊。

Thank you, Brian. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. I'm pleased to report another quarter of strong performance as we executed our operating strategy in a disciplined manner. We invested in high-quality opportunities across all 3 external growth platforms while increasing our investment-grade exposure to an all-time high of nearly 69%. Our record investment-grade exposure is emblematic of the strength of our portfolio, which will provide for more durable cash flows in today's environment.

謝謝你，布萊恩。早安，感謝大家今天加入我們。我很高興地報告另一個季度的強勁業績，因為我們以嚴格的方式執行了我們的營運策略。我們在所有 3 個外部成長平台上投資了優質機會，同時將投資等級風險敞口提高至近 69% 的歷史最高水準。我們創紀錄的投資等級風險象徵著我們投資組合的實力，這將在當今環境下提供更持久的現金流。

Our portfolio is paired with a conservative balance sheet with 4.5x net debt to recurring EBITDA at quarter end and no material debt maturities until 2028. We continued to push cap rates higher during the quarter without sacrificing quality and maintaining our stringent underwriting criteria.

我們的投資組合搭配保守的資產負債表，季度末淨債務為經常性EBITDA 的4.5 倍，並且在2028 年之前沒有重大債務到期。我們在本季度繼續提高資本化率，同時不犧牲品質並維持嚴格的承保標準。

Within our targeted sandbox, there continues to be a lack of capitalized competition and our track record of execution makes us the buyer of choice in today's market. We anticipate this dynamic will persist and consequently, cap rates will continue to move higher, albeit slowly and steadily given the large and fragmented nature of the net lease space.

在我們的目標沙箱中，仍然缺乏資本化的競爭，而我們的執行記錄使我們成為當今市場的首選買家。我們預計這種動態將持續下去，因此，考慮到淨租賃空間的龐大和分散的性質，資本化率將繼續走高，儘管緩慢而穩定。

We are in an enviable position for the upcoming year. Our fortress balance sheet has no material debt maturity until 2028, avoiding refinancing headwinds. Simultaneously, our best-in-class portfolio with minimal lease maturities provide stable and growing cash flows. Even in the absence of external growth, this will enable us to deliver AFFO or true cash growth of over 3% next year on a per share basis.

來年我們處於令人羨慕的位置。我們的堡壘資產負債表在 2028 年之前沒有重大債務到期，從而避免了再融資阻力。同時，我們一流的投資組合和最短的租賃期限可提供穩定且不斷增長的現金流。即使沒有外部成長，這也將使我們明年能夠實現每股 AFFO 或真實現金成長超過 3%。

Embedded in this base case is a conservative credit loss amount, inflationary growth in G&A of over 5%, and any outstanding borrowings on the revolver are assumed at the current forward SOFR curve. This base case AFFO growth combined with our current dividend yield, sets the stage for high single-digit returns in 2024, even in the absence of additional capital or external growth.

此基本情境包含保守的信用損失金額、G&A 的通貨膨脹成長率超過 5%，以及循環貸款上的任何未償還借款均假定為目前遠期 SOFR 曲線。即使在沒有額外資本或外部成長的情況下，這種 AFFO 成長的基本情況與我們目前的股息收益率相結合，也為 2024 年實現高個位數回報奠定了基礎。

As discussed on previous calls, we will continue to avoid going up the risk curve, investing capital only in the country's leading operators with high-quality underlying real estate. While our relationships and acquisition funnel continue to provide a strong pipeline, we will remain disciplined capital allocators to ensure that our risk-adjusted spreads are appropriate and our cap rates are reflective of broader market conditions.

如同先前電話會議所討論的，我們將繼續避免風險曲線上升，僅將資金投資於擁有優質基礎房地產的國內領先業者。雖然我們的關係和收購管道繼續提供強大的管道，但我們將繼續遵守紀律的資本分配者，以確保我們的風險調整利差是適當的，並且我們的資本化率反映了更廣泛的市場狀況。

This past quarter, we invested approximately $411 million in 98 high-quality retail net lease properties, including the acquisition of 74 assets for $398 million. The properties acquired during the quarter are leased to leading operators in sectors including farm and rural supply, auto parts, tire and auto service, convenience stores, off-price retail, home improvement and warehouse clubs. We executed several sale-leaseback transactions this quarter with our retail partners, including best-in-class operators in the farm and rural supply and convenience store sectors.

上個季度，我們對 98 個優質零售淨租賃物業投資了約 4.11 億美元，其中包括以 3.98 億美元收購了 74 項資產。本季度收購的物業出租給農場和農村供應、汽車零件、輪胎和汽車服務、便利商店、折扣零售、家居裝修和倉儲俱樂部等行業的領先營運商。本季我們與零售合作夥伴執行了幾筆售後回租交易，其中包括農場和農村供應以及便利商店領域的一流營運商。

As mentioned on prior calls, sale-leaseback activity has increased for us this year. It is another example of our ability to be a full-service, comprehensive real estate solution for leading operators. We acquired properties at a weighted average cap rate of 6.9%, a 10-basis point expansion relative to the second quarter and 70 basis points higher than full year 2022. The weighted average lease term was 11.5 years and approximately 73% of annualized base rents are derived from investment-grade retailers. We acquired 7 ground leases during the quarter, representing approximately $35 million or 8.2% of total acquisition volume for the quarter.

正如先前電話會議中提到的，今年我們的售後回租活動有所增加。這是我們有能力為領先營運商提供全方位服務、綜合性房地產解決方案的另一個例子。我們以 6.9% 的加權平均上限利率收購房產，較第二季度增長 10 個基點，比 2022 年全年高出 70 個基點。加權平均租賃期限為 11.5 年，約佔年化基本租金的 73%來自投資級零售商。我們在本季度收購了 7 個土地租賃合同，價值約 3500 萬美元，佔本季度總收購量的 8.2%。

Through the first 9 months of the year, we've invested more than $1 billion in 265 retail net lease properties spanning 38 states. Over 73% of the annualized base rent acquired is derived from leading investment-grade operators. These metrics demonstrate our continued focus on leveraging all 3 external growth platforms to execute on opportunities with best-in-class retailers.

今年前 9 個月，我們已在 38 個州的 265 個零售淨租賃物業上投資了超過 10 億美元。超過 73% 的年化基本租金來自領先的投資等級營運商。這些指標顯示我們持續致力於利用所有 3 個外部成長平台來抓住與一流零售商合作的機會。

Our development in DFP programs continue to see increased activity with a record of over $137 million of capital committed this year. Our team continues to uncover exciting opportunities, and our platform is uniquely situated to provide struggling merchant developers with the ability to lock in funding while providing us with the opportunity to drive superior risk-adjusted returns. We continue to have dialogue with many of our retail partners to find solutions that fit within their store growth strategies.

我們的 DFP 計畫開發活動持續增加，今年承諾的資金超過 1.37 億美元，創歷史新高。我們的團隊不斷發現令人興奮的機會，我們的平台具有獨特的優勢，可以為陷入困境的商業開發商提供鎖定資金的能力，同時為我們提供獲得卓越的風險調整回報的機會。我們繼續與許多零售合作夥伴對話，尋找適合他們商店成長策略的解決方案。

We commenced 2 new development in DFP projects during the quarter with total anticipated costs of $11 million. Construction continued during the quarter on 14 projects with anticipated costs totaling approximately $56 million. Lastly, we wrapped up construction on 8 projects during this past quarter with total costs of approximately $41 million.

本季我們開始了 2 個新的 DFP 專案開發，預計總成本為 1,100 萬美元。本季有 14 個項目繼續施工，預計成本總計約 5,600 萬美元。最後，我們在上個季度完成了 8 個項目的建設，總成本約為 4,100 萬美元。

Moving on to leasing. We executed new leases, extensions or options on over 655,000 square feet of gross leasable area during the third quarter. Notable new leases extensions or options included a 220,000-square foot Walmart in Wichita, Kansas; 130,000-square foot Lowe's in North Providence, Rhode Island and a 40,000-square foot Marshalls & HomeGoods in Napa, California. Through the first 9 months of the year, we executed new leases, extensions or options on just over 1.4 million square feet of gross leasable area. We are in an excellent position for the remainder of the year with just 8 leases or 30 basis points of annualized base rents maturing.

轉向租賃。第三季度，我們對超過 655,000 平方英尺的總可租賃面積執行了新的租賃、延期或選擇。值得注意的新租約延期或選擇包括位於堪薩斯州威奇託的 220,000 平方英尺的沃爾瑪； Lowe's 位於羅德島州北普羅維登斯，佔地 130,000 平方英尺；Marshalls & HomeGoods 位於加州納帕，佔地 40,000 平方英尺。今年前 9 個月，我們在超過 140 萬平方英尺的總可租賃面積上執行了新的租賃、延期或選擇。我們在今年剩餘時間內處於有利地位，只有 8 個租賃到期或年化基本租金 30 個基點到期。

Our best-in-class portfolio now spans 2,084 properties across 49 states, including 217 ground leases representing 11.6% of total annualized base rents. Occupancy for the quarter remained very strong at 99.7%, and again, our investment-grade exposure reached a record of approximately 69%.

我們一流的投資組合目前涵蓋 49 個州的 2,084 處房產，其中包括 217 個地面租賃，佔年化基本租金總額的 11.6%。本季的入住率仍然非常強勁，達到 99.7%，我們的投資等級曝險再次達到約 69% 的紀錄。

Before I turn the call over to Peter, I want to congratulate Nicole Witteveen on her promotion to Chief Operating Officer. Nicole has had tremendous accomplishments throughout her career at Agree and her operational prowess makes this promotion very well deserved. Craig Erlich has now stepped into the newly created role of Chief Growth Officer, where he will devote his full focus to our external growth platforms and tenant relations. Lastly, I'm extremely pleased to welcome Ed Eickhoff to our team as Executive Vice President of Asset Management. Ed has nearly 40 years of industry experience, and he will help optimize our asset management platforms.

在將電話轉給 Peter 之前，我要祝賀 Nicole Witteveen 晉升為營運長。 Nicole 在 Agree 的整個職業生涯中取得了巨大的成就，她的營運能力使這次晉升當之無愧。克雷格·埃利希 (Craig Erlich) 現已擔任新設立的首席成長官一職，他將全力關注我們的外部成長平台和租戶關係。最後，我非常高興地歡迎 Ed Eickhoff 加入我們的團隊，擔任資產管理執行副總裁。 Ed擁有近40年的產業經驗，他將協助優化我們的資產管理平台。

I'll hand the call over to Peter, and then we can open it up for questions.

我會將電話轉交給 Peter，然後我們就可以開始提問。

Thank you, Joey. Starting with earnings, core FFO per share for the third quarter of $0.99 was 2.1% higher than the same period last year. AFFO per share for the third quarter increased 4.2% year-over-year to $1. In the third quarter, we declared monthly cash dividends of $0.243 per share for July, August and September. This represents a 3.8% year-over-year increase. While raising our dividend twice over the past year, we maintained conservative payout ratios for the third quarter of 74% of core FFO per share and 73% of AFFO per share, respectively.

謝謝你，喬伊。從獲利來看，第三季核心FFO每股為0.99美元，比去年同期成長2.1%。第三季每股 AFFO 年成長 4.2% 至 1 美元。第三季度，我們宣布 7 月、8 月和 9 月每月現金股利為每股 0.243 美元。這意味著同比增長 3.8%。在過去一年兩次提高股息的同時，我們第三季度的股息率保持保守，分別為核心 FFO 每股 74% 和 AFFO 每股 73%。

Subsequent to quarter end, we again increased our monthly cash dividend to $0.247 per share for October. The monthly dividend reflects an annualized dividend amount of over $2.96 per share or a 2.9% increase over the annualized dividend amount of $2.88 per share from the fourth quarter of 2022.

季度末後，我們再次將 10 月的每月現金股利提高至每股 0.247 美元。每月股息反映了每股超過2.96美元的年化股息金額，比2022年第四季每股2.88美元的年化股息金額增加了2.9%。

General and administrative expenses totaled $8.8 million in the third quarter. G&A expense held steady quarter-over-quarter at 6.1% of revenue, adjusted for the noncash amortization of above and below market lease intangibles or 6.5% of unadjusted revenue. For the full year, we still expect G&A to decrease a minimum of 50 basis points to 6% of adjusted revenue or lower.

第三季一般及行政費用總計 880 萬美元。根據高於和低於市場租賃無形資產的非現金攤銷或未調整收入的 6.5% 進行調整後，管理及行政費用環比保持穩定，佔收入的 6.1%。就全年而言，我們仍預計 G&A 將減少至少 50 個基點，至調整後收入的 6% 或更低。

Income tax expense was approximately $709,000 during the third quarter. For the full year, we continue to expect income tax expense to be between $2.5 million and $3.5 million. Moving to our capital markets activities.

第三季所得稅費用約為 709,000 美元。我們仍然預計全年所得稅費用將在 250 萬美元至 350 萬美元之間。轉向我們的資本市場活動。

During the quarter, we sold more than 1.3 million shares of forward equity via our ATM program for net proceeds of approximately $87 million. Including the shares sold in the period, we settled almost 4.3 million shares of forward equity during the quarter at an average price of more than $68 per share, realizing net proceeds of approximately $290 million.

本季度，我們透過 ATM 計畫出售了超過 130 萬股遠期股權，淨收益約為 8,700 萬美元。包括本季出售的股票在內，我們在本季以每股超過 68 美元的平均價格結算了近 430 萬股遠期股權，實現淨收益約 2.9 億美元。

We further strengthened our balance sheet during the quarter and demonstrated our ability to access the bank debt market, closing on the previously announced $350 million 5.5-year term loan. Prior to closing the term loan, we entered into $350 million of forward starting swaps to fix SOFR over the 5.5-year period. Including the impact of the swaps, the interest rate on the term loan is fixed at 4.52%. The term loan was a market-leading financing with strong support from our key banking relationships and the 5.5-year term allowed us to extend the maturity into 2029. As Joey mentioned, our debt maturity schedule remains in excellent position with no material maturities until 2028.

我們在本季進一步強化了資產負債表，並展示了我們進入銀行債務市場的能力，完成了先前宣布的 3.5 億美元的 5.5 年期定期貸款。在結束定期貸款之前，我們簽訂了 3.5 億美元的遠期起始互換協議，以修復 5.5 年期間的 SOFR。包括互換的影響，定期貸款利率固定為4.52%。這項定期貸款是一項市場領先的融資，得到了我們主要銀行關係的大力支持，5.5 年的期限使我們能夠將期限延長至2029 年。正如Joey 提到的，我們的債務到期時間表仍然處於良好狀態，直到2028 年才出現實質性到期。 。

At quarter end, we had total liquidity of over $957 million, including $951 million of availability on our revolver and more than $6 million of cash on hand. In addition, our revolving credit facility and term loan have accordion options, allowing us to request additional lender commitments of $750 million and $150 million, respectively.

截至季末，我們的流動資金總額超過 9.57 億美元，其中包括 9.51 億美元的左輪手槍可用資金和超過 600 萬美元的手頭現金。此外，我們的循環信貸安排和定期貸款有手風琴選項，使我們能夠分別請求貸方額外承諾 7.5 億美元和 1.5 億美元。

As of September 30, our net debt to recurring EBITDA was approximately 4.5x. Our total debt to enterprise value was approximately 28%, while our fixed charge coverage ratio, which includes principal amortization and the preferred dividend, remained in a very healthy position at 5.1x.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的淨債務與經常性 EBITDA 比率約為 4.5 倍。我們的總債務與企業價值之比約為 28%，而我們的固定費用覆蓋率（包括本金攤銷和優先股股息）仍保持在 5.1 倍的非常健康的位置。

Lastly, I'm pleased to report that MSCI, a leading provider of ESG indices, upgraded our rating from B to BBB last week. This follows the recent upgrade of our GRESB Public Disclosure score from D to B as well as the gold level recognition from Green Lease Leaders that I discussed on last quarter's call. These achievements demonstrate the significant progress that we've made on our ESG objectives and are a testament to the efforts of our ESG Steering Committee and our outstanding team.

最後，我很高興地報告，ESG 指數領先提供者 MSCI 上週將我們的評級從 B 上調至 BBB。此前，我們最近將 GRESB 公開披露評分從 D 升級至 B，以及我在上季度電話會議上討論過的綠色租賃領袖的黃金級認可。這些成就證明了我們在 ESG 目標上取得的重大進展，也證明了我們的 ESG 指導委員會和優秀團隊的努力。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Joey.

這樣，我想把電話轉回給喬伊。

Thank you, Peter. To summarize, we are very well positioned to drive earnings growth and provide a consistent and well-covered growing dividend despite the turbulence we are seeing today in the markets.

謝謝你，彼得。總而言之，儘管我們今天看到市場動盪，但我們仍然有能力推動獲利成長，並提供持續且覆蓋良好的不斷增長的股息。

At this time, operator, we will open it up for questions.

這時候，接線員，我們就打開提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Eric Wolfe with Citi.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的埃里克·沃爾夫（Eric Wolfe）。

Just curious what level of acquisitions you have under contract right now for the fourth quarter. And as we think about the remaining, call it, portion of your guidance to get to that $300 million for the quarter, what's the investment framework you're going to be using to determine whether it can make sense to keep acquiring.

只是好奇您現在第四季的合約收購量是多少。當我們考慮剩下的部分（即本季達到 3 億美元的指導方針的一部分）時，您將使用什麼投資框架來確定繼續收購是否有意義。

Eric, it's Joey. Well, first, I think it's notable that we changed the phraseology in the release to approximately $1.3 billion. Without giving any guidance or forward-looking statements, I'll tell you that we're going to maintain flexibility here in terms of what we acquire this year. And so that approximately $1.3 billion could be anywhere between $1.2 billion and $1.35 billion. But I think it's prudent for us to watch the macro here and make some really consequential decisions on whether or not we want to proceed with specific acquisitions or not. So maintaining flexibility, hence the approximate verbiage in the release, is critical.

艾瑞克，這是喬伊。嗯，首先，我認為值得注意的是，我們將新聞稿中的措辭更改為約 13 億美元。在不提供任何指導或前瞻性陳述的情況下，我會告訴你，我們將在今年收購的產品方面保持靈活性。因此，大約 13 億美元可能在 12 億美元到 13.5 億美元之間。但我認為，對我們來說，謹慎的做法是觀察宏觀形勢，並就是否要進行具體收購做出一些真正重要的決定。因此，保持靈活性以及發布中的大致措辭至關重要。

In terms of the framework, the framework is going to be one, in today's environment, capital is at least semiprecious. And two, I think we have to make sure that we're acquiring things that -- being patient where we think cap rates are going to continue to creep up here without deploying capital at spreads that we think will improve.

就框架而言，框架將是一個，在今天的環境下，資本至少是半珍貴的。第二，我認為我們必須確保我們正在收購的東西——在我們認為資本化率將繼續攀升的情況下保持耐心，而不以我們認為會改善的利差部署資本。

Got it. And then you mentioned that you can grow, I guess, AFFO per share more than 3% next year without any acquisitions. Does that include the sort of the full impact of $300 million of acquisitions in the fourth quarter? Or could you get there with just doing the sort of $200 million that you mentioned kind of on that lower end. I'm just trying to understand whether if you did the full $300 million in the fourth quarter or even when above that, it would just be additive to the 3% growth that you mentioned in your remarks.

知道了。然後您提到，我猜明年 AFFO 每股收益可以成長 3% 以上，無需進行任何收購。這是否包括第四季 3 億美元收購的全部影響？或者你可以只花你提到的 2 億美元的低端資金來實現這一目標嗎？我只是想了解，如果您在第四季度完成了 3 億美元的投資，甚至超出了這一數字，這是否只是您在演講中提到的 3% 增長的補充。

It's truly immaterial on a denominator of the size of ours today, call it, $150 million-ish range in there, embedded in that range is really immaterial in terms of that 3%, which I'll call base case. And just to clarify, that base case is Joey takes up golf and (inaudible) and we do nothing next year. And so we're very confident regardless of the amount of acquisitions that we execute during the fourth quarter that we're going to grow AFFO next year over 3% without doing anything. That's no new capital, that's no new acquisition activity. And so that is, we think, a very strong, I'll call it, again, the base case.

對於我們今天規模的分母來說，這確實無關緊要，稱之為 1.5 億美元左右的範圍，嵌入該範圍內的 3%（我稱之為基本情況）實際上並不重要。澄清一下，基本情況是喬伊開始打高爾夫球（聽不清楚），而我們明年什麼都不做。因此，無論我們在第四季度執行的收購數量有多少，我們都非常有信心，明年我們將在不採取任何行動的情況下使 AFFO 增長超過 3%。這不是新的資本，也不是新的收購活動。因此，我們認為，這是一個非常強大的，我將再次稱之為基本案例。

Next question comes from Joshua Dennerlein with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Joshua Dennerlein。

Yes. Joey, last time we spoke at our conference, you were talking about some constructive conversations you were having with retailers on partnering with them, just as they kind of try to hit their store opening goals. Just what's the latest on that?

是的。喬伊，上次我們在會議上發言時，您談到了您與零售商就與他們合作進行的一些建設性對話，就像他們試圖實現開店目標一樣。最新的情況是什麼？

Those conversations continue. We're executing on projects that are both announced and unannounced, but those conversations continue. And I think retailers, I would tell you that they are quickly realizing even faster than at your conference that the new store deliveries that they're anticipating from merchant builders and private developers aren't going to come to fruition.

這些對話仍在繼續。我們正在執行已宣布和未宣布的項目，但這些對話仍在繼續。我想零售商們，我會告訴你們，他們很快就意識到，他們所期望的商業建築商和私人開發商交付的新店不會實現，甚至比你們會議上的速度還要快。

And so we're going to be patient and allow these yields or these return on cost plus the cap rates on stabilized assets to come to us here. Obviously, we've seen the activity in the 10-year and that meteoric rise over the past 60 to 90 days. So we're going to maintain patience here and not jump into anything too quickly. And like I said, I think it's going to come to us. Those conversations continue. We're one of the only few viable solutions that they have without just self-developing and putting on balance sheet if they have those capabilities. And so we'll be ready and willing. But again, for us to pull the trigger, it's got to be appropriate risk-adjusted spreads.

因此，我們將保持耐心，讓這些收益率或成本回報加上穩定資產的上限利率來我們這裡。顯然，我們已經看到了 10 年來的活動以及過去 60 至 90 天內的急劇上升。因此，我們要保持耐心，不要太快介入任何事。就像我說的，我認為它會降臨到我們身上。這些對話仍在繼續。如果他們有這些能力，我們是他們擁有的僅有的少數可行的解決方案之一，而無需自行開發並列入資產負債表。所以我們會做好準備並願意。但同樣，為了讓我們扣下板機，必須有適當的風險調整利差。

Okay. I appreciate that color. And then just like just trying to think through the dynamic like if you guys are pulling back, I'm assuming others might pull back, like how do we think cap rates kind of respond? Or is there just like so much capital out there that wants just have to be -- that has to be put to work, it's going to take a while. Just kind of what you're trying to -- thinking through the market dynamic?

好的。我很欣賞那種顏色。然後，就像試圖思考動態一樣，如果你們撤退，我假設其他人可能會撤退，例如我們認為資本化率會如何反應？或者是否有這麼多的資本需要投入使用，這需要一段時間。這就是您想要做的事情——思考市場動態？

Well, it's certainly not the latter, so much capital that has to be put to work here. I think the 1031 market is down over 50% and edging even higher. Some estimates are at 70%, commercial real estate transactions are down massively. And so look, we remain the buyer of choice here and now it's at our discretion where and when we want to execute. I think if we roll the clock back to fall of last year when we pre-equitized the balance sheet, and we put ourselves in a position to execute this year, we were very wary of the capital markets. We said cap rates would move slowly up. We think that -- the standard answer, frankly, and the baseline expectation in a fragmented and illiquid market, the size of net lease, we see that continuing. I've heard comments that they may have plateaued in the last few months. I've heard comments they were going to move abruptly. That's not what happens in a fragmented and large space like ours.

嗯，肯定不是後者，這麼多的資本必須投入這裡。我認為 1031 市場下跌了 50% 以上，甚至還在上漲。有人估計為 70%，商業房地產交易大幅下降。所以看，我們仍然是這裡的首選買家，現在我們可以自行決定何時何地執行。我認為，如果我們把時間倒回去年秋天，當時我們對資產負債表進行了資產負債表前的股權化，並且我們今年能夠執行，我們對資本市場非常警惕。我們表示上限利率將緩慢上升。我們認為，坦白說，標準答案以及分散且缺乏流動性的市場的基線預期，淨租賃的規模，我們認為這種情況仍在繼續。我聽到一些評論稱，過去幾個月它們可能已經趨於穩定。我聽到有人評論說他們要突然搬家。在像我們這樣的碎片化的大空間中，情況不會發生。

And so we anticipate yields continuing to creep up, and we'll deploy capital as we see prudent therefore when those yields do creep up.

因此，我們預期收益率將繼續攀升，當收益率確實攀升時，我們將謹慎部署資本。

The next question comes from Nate Crossett with BNP.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行 (BNP) 的內特·克羅塞特 (Nate Crossett)。

The 3% growth for next year, what percent are you assuming for maybe credit loss? And then can you just talk about your Rite Aid exposure? And then are there any other tenant issues we should be aware of?

明年 3% 的成長，您假設信用損失可能是百分之多少？然後可以談談你對 Rite Aid 的接觸嗎？那我們還應該注意其他租戶問題嗎？

I'll hit the first -- the last question first, Rite Aid exposure. We have a total of 5 Rite Aids in our portfolio. Two, we acquired subleased already to investment-grade tenants. We anticipate a credit upgrade there once -- one has already been rejected, the prime lease, and so we're entering into a sublease with a significant lift with an investment-grade tenant that's already in place, which will increase term as well as rent at approximately 50% from the former Rite Aid rent.

我先回答第一個問題——最後一個問題，Rite Aid 曝光。我們的產品組合中共有 5 種 Rite Aids。第二，我們已經將轉租給投資等級租戶。我們預計那裡會有一次信用升級——其中一個已被拒絕，即優質租賃，因此我們正在與已經就位的投資級租戶簽訂轉租協議，大幅提升，這將增加期限和租金租金約為以前Rite Aid 租金的50%。

So we truly have 3 Rite Aids in the portfolio. We haven't acquired a Rite Aid since the launch of the acquisition platform in 2010. These are legacy assets, none of which are on the initial rejection list, and we're very comfortable with the real estate and the rents there if we were to get them back and have already -- frankly, already received significant interest from national retailers to take those spaces.

因此，我們的產品組合中確實有 3 種 Rite Aids。自 2010 年推出收購平台以來，我們還沒有收購過 Rite Aid。這些都是遺留資產，沒有一個在最初的拒絕清單上，如果我們是的話，我們對那裡的房地產和租金非常滿意坦率地說，已經收到了全國零售商對佔據這些空間的濃厚興趣。

Again, before I turn it over to Peter to talk about that 3% again base case, I want to reiterate that base case, as I said in the prepared remarks, includes inflationary growth with G&A, no new net acquisition activity in 2024. And so that is a base case, it is the baseline, it's the basement, and I don't anticipate that materializing, but I'll turn it over to Peter to give those building blocks.

再次，在我把它交給彼得談論3% 的基本情況之前，我想重申一下，正如我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，基本情況包括G&A 的通貨膨脹增長，2024 年沒有新的淨收購活動。所以這是一個基本案例，它是基線，它是地下室，我預計不會實現，但我會將其交給彼得來提供這些構建塊。

Sure. Nate, just to talk through some of the primary drivers of AFFO per share growth being north of 3% next year. First is the impact of rent bumps in the portfolio, which should drive about 1% of growth next year. We typically see about 1% of growth from internal lease escalators in the portfolio. The second driver of growth will be the run rate impact of 2023 acquisitions, which we already talked about. And as which Joey mentioned, have been very accretively financed with the forward equity we raised coming into the year as well as the $350 million term loan that we closed in July at a rate of 4.5%. Lastly, we have free cash flow, which is approaching $100 million annually that we can use either to pay down amounts outstanding on the line or reinvest those proceeds. And so those are the primary drivers of the 3% plus growth in AFFO per share next year.

當然。 Nate，我想談談明年 AFFO 每股成長超過 3% 的一些主要驅動因素。首先是投資組合中租金上漲的影響，這將推動明年約 1% 的成長。我們通常會看到投資組合中內部租賃自動扶梯約 1% 的成長。第二個成長驅動力將是 2023 年收購對運行率的影響，我們已經討論過這一點。正如 Joey 所提到的，我們透過今年籌集的遠期股本以及我們 7 月以 4.5% 的利率完成的 3.5 億美元定期貸款獲得了非常多的融資。最後，我們擁有每年接近 1 億美元的自由現金流，我們可以用它來償還未償還的金額或將這些收益再投資。因此，這些是明年 AFFO 每股成長 3% 以上的主要驅動力。

As Joey mentioned, that would be offset by growth in G&A of more than 5% as well as a conservative credit loss number. We've assumed in there 50 basis points. That compares to the credit loss that we realized this year of 10 basis points so far through the first 9 months of the year. That's in line with the credit loss that we realized in 2022 of 10 basis points as well, but trends below our longer-term average of 25 basis points in terms of credit loss. And that's a fully loaded credit loss number. So we feel that 50 basis points is very conservative.

正如 Joey 所提到的，這將被超過 5% 的一般管理費用增長以及保守的信貸損失數字所抵消。我們假設有 50 個基點。相較之下，今年前 9 個月我們實現的信用損失為 10 個基點。這也與我們在 2022 年實現的 10 個基點的信用損失一致，但信用損失的趨勢低於我們 25 個基點的長期平均值。這是一個滿載信用損失的數字。所以我們覺得50個基點是非常保守的。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just 1 on leverage. Like if you were to do acquisitions next year, like what's your tolerance to do, like lever up.

好的。這很有幫助。然後槓桿率可能只有 1。例如如果你明年要進行收購，例如你能承受什麼，例如提高槓桿。

Yes, we have effectively 100% availability under our $1 billion revolver excluding the accordion. We only have $350 million in bank debt. The term loan market is open to us. The 10-year unsecured market is open, but at unfavorable pricing. I said in the last call, we look at leverage here over a full cycle. And so piercing 5x has no problem. There's no problem to us. We're sitting at 4.5x levered with significant liquidity and frankly, flexibility to execute on transactions that provide for the spreads that are necessary to drive AFFO growth.

是的，我們價值 10 億美元的左輪手槍（不包括手風琴）實際上具有 100% 的可用性。我們只有 3.5 億美元的銀行債務。定期貸款市場向我們開放。 10年期無擔保市場是開放的，但定價不利。我在上次電話會議中說過，我們在這裡關注整個週期的槓桿率。所以刺穿5x是沒有問題的。對我們來說沒有問題。我們的槓桿率為 4.5 倍，流動性充足，坦白說，執行交易具有靈活性，這些交易提供了推動 AFFO 成長所需的利差。

What we will not do, I think, is as important as what we will do is we will not get on to the treadmill, grow a denominator, invest capital at immaterial spreads or de minimis spreads. That's just not something that is -- that, frankly, is in our strategy or is in our wheelhouse. We're sitting here with a portfolio now approaching 70% investment grade, over 11.5% ground leases, no material debt maturities until 2028, no refinancing headwinds, we're not going to cause -- we're not going to create self-created -- self-caused problems here or self-inflicted wounds. We are going to be prudent and disciplined in turbulent times. We're going to watch them play out and read and react accordingly.

我認為，我們不會做的事情與我們將要做的事情一樣重要，那就是我們不會踏上跑步機，增加分母，以無關緊要的利差或微量利差投資資本。坦白說，這不是我們的策略或我們的駕駛室中的事情。我們坐在這裡的投資組合現在接近 70% 的投資級別，超過 11.5% 的土地租賃，到 2028 年沒有重大債務到期，沒有再融資阻力，我們不會造成 - 我們不會創造自我 -創造——這裡自己造成的問題或自己造成的傷口。在動盪的時期，我們將保持謹慎和自律。我們將觀看他們的表演並閱讀並做出相應的反應。

The next question comes from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Haendel St. Juste。

So Joey, I wanted to follow up on your comments about appropriate risk-adjusted spreads that you're looking to underwrite here in the current environment. I guess I'm curious what exactly does that mean? What's the minimum spread you're looking for today in light of your higher cost of capital? And then perhaps dispositions. Will that maybe play a greater role near term in terms of the funding?

喬伊，我想跟進您對在當前環境下您希望承保的適當風險調整利差的評論。我想我很好奇這到底代表什麼？鑑於您的資金成本較高，您今天尋求的最小利差是多少？然後也許是性格。短期內這可能會在資金方面發揮更大的作用嗎？

Certainly, we'll look at dispositions. We have a high-quality portfolio that we can dispose into the 1031 market. I've talked about that historically. It's not the most efficient or time effective, but we have dispositions that are a potential source for us if we so choose to go down that road.

當然，我們會看看處置。我們擁有高品質的產品組合，可以投入 1031 市場。我已經在歷史上談過這一點。這不是最有效或最省時的方法，但如果我們選擇走這條路，我們的性格就會成為我們的潛在來源。

In terms of appropriate spreads, I'd tell you it's really across 3 external growth platforms, those deviate, right, because duration equals risk there. And then also qualitative aspects. But investing capital, sub 70, 75 basis points without a compelling underlying real estate case for the ability to mark to market doesn't make much sense. And frankly, doesn't move the AFFO or the earnings needle here unless you did such in massive quantities, which isn't appropriate in today's environment.

就適當的利差而言，我想告訴你，這實際上是跨 3 個外部成長平台的，這些平台是有偏差的，對吧，因為久期等於風險。然後還有定性方面。但是，如果沒有令人信服的基礎房地產案例來證明以市價計價的能力，那麼投資低於 70、75 個基點的資本就沒有多大意義。坦白說，除非你大量這樣做，否則不會將 AFFO 或獲利指針移到這裡，這在當今的環境中是不合適的。

And a bit more maybe on the hurdle rates, the minimum spread that you'd be looking to invest in today?

也許還有一點關於最低門檻利率，您今天想要投資的最小利差？

Will you repeat that Haendel, sorry?

對不起，你能再說一次亨德爾嗎？

A bit more color on the appropriate risk-adjusted spreads, maybe perhaps some color on how you're thinking about what level of spread versus your cost of capital that you would require today in the current environment?

對適當的風險調整利差進行更多的描述，也許對您如何考慮在當前環境下您今天需要的利差水平與資本成本的關係進行一些描述？

Yes. I think -- again, I think we will not be acquiring, I can say, fairly -- succinctly at this time. We won't be acquiring [sub-7] certainly. That doesn't make sense given our -- given the cost of capital in the environment, I don't think there's a purchaser of sub-7 out there outside of a 1031 buyer.

是的。我認為——我再次認為，我可以說，我們目前不會公平地進行收購。我們絕對不會收購[sub-7]。考慮到我們環境中的資本成本，我認為除了 1031 買家之外，沒有其他人購買 sub-7。

Second, if we look at our development in PCS platforms, we're going to be looking to -- depending on duration, scope of the project, 50 to 150 basis point spreads of where we could acquire or would acquire a like-kind asset in a 70-day period. Again, each transaction is specific. One thing I would note is we don't have to qualitatively improve this portfolio. We're not going to degrade it, but again, reaching record investment-grade exposure here. Again, we aren't insinuating any shadow ratings in that number either. We don't have the qualitative aspects in terms of improving the portfolio sitting here where we are today.

其次，如果我們檢視 PCS 平台的開發，我們將根據專案的持續時間、範圍，我們可以收購或將要收購同類資產的 50 到 150 個基點的利差在 70 天的時間內。同樣，每筆交易都是特定的。我要注意的一件事是我們不必從品質上改進這個產品組合。我們不會降低它的評級，但會再次達到創紀錄的投資等級風險。同樣，我們也沒有暗示這個數字有任何影子評級。我們目前在改善投資組合方面還沒有定性的方面。

And so, the #1 driver for us is not sacrificing quality, but at the same time, driving spreads that are appropriate based upon the credit risk, underlying duration of the project or of the real estate. And then the long-term viability of that asset with the real estate fundamentals.

因此，對我們來說，第一大驅動因素不是犧牲質量，而是同時根據信用風險、專案或房地產的基本期限推動適當的利差。然後是該資產與房地產基本面的長期生存能力。

The next question comes from Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Brad Heffern。

Joey, you mentioned that you expect cap rates to increase gradually. But if both cap rates and cost of capital stayed sticky at current levels, how would you treat capital deployment? Would it just be free cash flow that you would deploy? Or do you think that you would still have the ability to use debt or something like that to actually have acquisition activity beyond the free cash flow level?

喬伊，您提到您預計上限利率會逐漸增加。但如果資本化率和資本成本都保持在當前水平，您將如何對待資本部署？您會部署自由現金流嗎？或者您認為您仍然有能力利用債務或類似的東西來實際進行超出自由現金流水平的收購活動？

Well, I think that case is very -- I would tell you, after the rise we've seen in the 10-year, for cap rates not to continue to incrementally adjust again, it will take time. I think that is highly unlikely. Second, I think what you're referring to there is if they don't adjust and the 10-year stays in this 4.8% to 5% range, what will we do? And I think, again, that reflects back whether we can uncover opportunities through all 3 platforms that will provide the appropriate spread.

嗯，我認為這種情況非常 - 我會告訴你，在我們看到十年來的上漲之後，要使資本化率不再繼續逐步調整，這需要時間。我認為這不太可能。其次，我認為你指的是如果他們不調整並且10年保持在4.8%至5%的範圍內，我們會做什麼？我認為，這再次反映出我們是否可以透過所有 3 個提供適當價差的平台發現機會。

In the unlikely event or I'll tell you most likely impossible event, we're unable to find any opportunities across those 3 platforms that reflects back to the base case, which Peter just gave the walk on over -- again, over 3% AFFO growth frankly, delevering or leverage neutral, not investing any capital, not raising any capital, and I start taking golf lessons.

在不太可能發生的事件中，或者我會告訴你最有可能發生的事件中，我們無法在這3 個平台上找到任何反映基本情況的機會，Peter 剛剛對此進行了闡述——再次超過3 % AFFO成長坦白說，去槓桿化或槓桿中性，不投資任何資本，不籌集任何資本，我開始上高爾夫課程。

Okay. Fair enough. And then if you do have a big decline in activity overall, where does the first dollar go? Is that largely development activity? Or is it a mix of development and acquisitions?

好的。很公平。然後，如果整體活動確實大幅下降，那麼第一塊錢去哪裡了？這主要是開發活動嗎？還是開發和收購的結合？

I would assume it's a hybrid. Look, we're seeing all different types of activities. Our funnel has never been as wide as it is today. We're seeing all different types of opportunities across all 3 external growth platforms. And so it's really -- it's individual transactional specific here and the merits and considerations, again, when you get to development or DFP, when you get to those 2 points, you're really looking at the duration of those projects.

我認為它是一個混合體。看，我們看到了各種不同類型的活動。我們的漏斗從未像今天這樣寬。我們在所有 3 個外部成長平台上看到了各種不同類型的機會。因此，這實際上是具體的個人交易以及優點和考慮因素，同樣，當您進行開發或 DFP 廣告管理系統時，當您達到這兩點時，您實際上會考慮這些項目的持續時間。

And so we will be disciplined capital allocators and again, have the appropriate premium for duration risk, whether that be a 120-day retrofit of an existing building or 1.5-year true ground-up development.

因此，我們將成為紀律嚴明的資本配置者，並再次為期限風險提供適當的溢價，無論是現有建築的 120 天改造還是 1.5 年真正的從頭開始開發。

The next question comes from R.J. Milligan with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 R.J.米利根和雷蒙德詹姆斯。

First, a quick question, just a slight impairment in the third quarter. I'm just curious what drove that $3 million impairment.

首先，問一個簡單的問題，第三季只是輕微的減損。我只是好奇是什麼導致了 300 萬美元的減損。

Yes. The impairment that was recorded during the quarter is related to one asset that we're targeting for disposition. The tenant's lease is expiring, and they've opted not to renew that lease.

是的。本季記錄的減損與我們計劃處置的一項資產有關。租戶的租約即將到期，他們選擇不續約。

Any color as to what industry that tenant is in?

有什麼顏色可以看出該租戶從事什麼行業嗎？

Yes. The tenant is in the grocery sector.

是的。租戶從事雜貨業。

Okay. And Joey, just a follow up on the last quarter conference call, the stock was trading around $64 a share, you commented that ADC wouldn't be issuing equity at those levels. And I'm just curious, is that still a line in the sand? Or what would need to change for you guys to be willing -- what would need to change for you guys to be willing to issue equity at a price below that or at current levels?

好的。 Joey，只是上個季度電話會議的後續行動，該股的交易價格約為每股 64 美元，您評論說 ADC 不會在這樣的水平上發行股票。我只是很好奇，這還是沙子裡的一條線嗎？或者需要做出哪些改變才能讓你們願意以低於該價格或目前水準的價格發行股票？

Cap rates would have to adjust and returns have to adjust. Again, this is at the end of the day, we're going to focus on driving spreads here. And so we're not going to go off the risk curve. We're not interested in the entertainment -- family entertainment or childcare, car wash space, we're not going to enter into sale leasebacks with private equity-sponsored retailers, again that is -- I'll tell you, that's the firm line, that's the red line.

資本化率必須調整，報酬率也必須調整。再說一遍，這就是最後的時刻，我們將專注於推動價差。所以我們不會偏離風險曲線。我們對娛樂不感興趣——家庭娛樂或兒童保育、洗車空間，我們不會與私募股權贊助的零售商進行售後回租，同樣——我告訴你，這就是公司線，就是紅線。

The line in the sand is if the wind shifts and cap rates move, which we anticipate them to move, it's going to be incremental and take time. We'll look at what those appropriate spreads are, where our cost -- relative cost of capital are and we would invest capital at an accretive -- appropriately accretive basis, if that were the case. So again, raising capital at these types of yields, unless we're going significantly up the risk curve, which we won't do, doesn't provide for shareholder returns at the end of the day.

沙子裡的底線是，如果風向發生變化，資本化率發生變化（我們預計它們會發生變化），那麼這將是漸進的，並且需要時間。我們將看看這些適當的利差是多少，我們的成本——相對資本成本是多少，如果是這樣的話，我們將以增值——適當的增值基礎投資資本。再說一遍，以這種收益率籌集資金，除非我們大幅提高風險曲線（我們不會這樣做），否則最終不會為股東帶來回報。

My last question, Joey, you're sort of the, I guess, second or third net lease REIT to report earnings thus far and give a little bit additional commentary on the transaction market. Just more broadly, sort of outside of ADC, how do you think the transaction volume will trend in the fourth quarter and as we get into next year?

我的最後一個問題，喬伊，我猜你是第二或第三個淨租賃房地產投資信託基金，報告迄今為止的收益並對交易市場給出一些額外的評論。更廣泛地說，在 ADC 之外，您認為第四季和明年的交易量趨勢如何？

Undoubtedly, significantly down. There's no question. Anybody who goes against the grain in terms of transaction volume or hit the pedal right now and slams that pedal down probably needs to rethink that position given the -- in light of the macro environment we're in and the rate environment that we're in.

毫無疑問，大幅下降。毫無疑問。考慮到我們所處的宏觀環境和我們所處的利率環境，任何在交易量方面違背原則或立即踩下踏板並猛踩踏板的人可能都需要重新考慮這一立場。在。

Next question comes from Connor Siversky with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的康納·西弗斯基。

A couple of quick ones for Peter on the term loan. Could you just walk us through the math on the swap again? And then in the event that you were looking at the unsecured market instead of the term loan market, any sense what that rate would have looked like?

彼得的定期貸款有幾個快速的問題。您能否再次向我們介紹一下有關互換的數學計算？然後，如果您關注的是無擔保市場而不是定期貸款市場，那麼利率會是什麼樣子？

Sure. So to hit on the $350 million term loan that we closed in July, that's an all-in rate, including the swaps that we entered into, fixed at roughly 4.5%. Those swaps were entered into in the mid-3s and then there's a spread on top of that, that gets us to the mid-4s. We also have an accordion option on that for $150 million on that term loan. We could exercise that accordion option today or look to a term loan of a different tenor with pricing likely in the mid-5s today, and we continue to have strong support from our bank group. And the $350 million term loan is the only bank debt that we have outstanding today. And so I think the bank debt market is certainly open for us today.

當然。因此，為了實現我們 7 月關閉的 3.5 億美元定期貸款，這是一個總利率，包括我們簽訂的掉期利率，固定在約 4.5%。這些交換是在 3 年代中期進行的，然後在此之上還有一個價差，這讓我們達到了 4 年代中期。我們還有一個手風琴選項，該定期貸款金額為 1.5 億美元。我們今天可以行使這種手風琴選擇權，或尋求不同期限的定期貸款，其定價可能在今天的 5 美元左右，而且我們繼續得到銀行集團的大力支持。 3.5 億美元的定期貸款是我們今天唯一未償還的銀行債務。因此，我認為銀行債務市場今天肯定對我們開放。

In terms of a public unsecured issuance, 10-year issuance today for us would likely be in the high 6s. And obviously, there's been a significant move in rates since our last call, the 10-year is up about 80 basis points since early August.

就公開無擔保發行而言，我們今天的 10 年期發行量可能會在 6 左右。顯然，自我們上次電話會議以來，利率發生了重大變化，自 8 月初以來，10 年期公債利率已上漲約 80 個基點。

Got it. And then maybe one for Joey. Late in the summer, there was some commentary out there that certain blue-chip retail operations were looking to expand their footprint. I'm just wondering in the context of rising rates since then, if those conversations have died out somewhat and maybe those retailers are reconsidering those expansion plans?

知道了。然後也許是給喬伊的。夏末，有一些評論指出某些藍籌零售業務正在尋求擴大其足跡。我只是想知道，從那時起利率不斷上升的背景下，這些對話是否已經消失，也許那些零售商正在重新考慮這些擴張計劃？

Haven't seen any instance of retailers reconsidering their expansion plans. The true challenge is the moat and method which they execute those expansion plans. And that continues to be, as you would anticipate, with the 10-year at 4.9% this morning and SOFR where it is, and the curve where it is and frankly, the regional banks who are typically lending to merchant builders that continues to be the choke point. And so those conversations between us and retailers, the growing retailers or retailers that want to grow, continue.

還沒有看到任何零售商重新考慮其擴張計劃的例子。真正的挑戰是他們執行這些擴張計劃的護城河和方法。正如您所預料的那樣，今天早上 10 年期國債利率為 4.9%，SOFR 也處於這一水平，曲線也處於這一水平，坦率地說，通常向商業建築商提供貸款的地區銀行仍然在瓶頸。因此，我們與零售商、成長中的零售商或想要成長的零售商之間的對話仍在繼續。

But I'll tell you, every day, they're getting a developer call them and telling them that they need to move up the return profiles because they can't make that historic return work anymore. And so we're seeing a shift, albeit it's slow because of the gradual and fragmented nature of the space, but we're seeing a shift upwards. We'll continue to have dialogue with those retailers and see if we can come to a solution that makes sense for both parties. But I think we're only going to continue to see those trends continue.

但我會告訴你，每天，他們都會接到開發人員打電話給他們，告訴他們需要提高報酬率，因為他們無法再實現歷史性的回報。因此，我們看到了一種轉變，儘管由於空間的漸進性和碎片化性質，這種轉變很緩慢，但我們看到了一種向上的轉變。我們將繼續與這些零售商進行對話，看看能否找到對雙方都有意義的解決方案。但我認為我們只會繼續看到這些趨勢繼續下去。

The next question comes from Ki Bin Kim with Truist.

下一個問題來自 Ki Bin Kim 和 Truist。

So the deals you closed on this quarter at a 6.9% cap rate. Obviously, those deals were probably underwritten a couple of months ago at least. When you look at the conversations you're having today, and I realize cap rates can take a while to change, but how much has it changed so far from that 6.9% to today?

因此，您本季完成的交易的上限率為 6.9%。顯然，這些交易可能至少在幾個月前就被承銷了。當你看看今天的對話時，我意識到資本化率可能需要一段時間才能改變，但從 6.9% 到今天，它改變了多少？

Well, I'll tell you that we anticipate printing north of a 7% in Q4. Again, volume is still up in the air. That will be at our election. Those conversations continue to move gradually, Ki Bin. This is -- these are one-on-one, one-off sellers and they are sellers that -- some are still hopeful for yesteryear. Hence, the challenge in moving cap rates in a quick and decisive manner. There are those that need immediate liquidity. I anticipate the year-end closures now really rethinking their pricing or the closures, I should say, the owners that want to sell by year-end and have a closing by year end, rethinking their strategies.

好吧，我會告訴你，我們預計第四季的印刷量將超過 7%。再次，成交量仍然懸而未決。那將在我們的選舉中進行。奇彬，那些談話繼續逐漸進行。這是——這些是一對一、一次性的賣家，他們是一些賣家——有些人仍然對去年充滿希望。因此，快速且果斷地調整上限利率是一項挑戰。有些人需要立即流動資金。我預計年底關閉現在真的會重新考慮他們的定價或關閉，我應該說，那些想要在年底前出售並在年底前關閉的業主，會重新考慮他們的策略。

We still see a wide range of asking cap rates. It's truly amazing how many e-mail blasts we get that are still asking 4 handles in front of things with the 10-year at 4.9%. And so we'll continue to see that move upwards, you're right in terms of our Q3 transactions, again, average 70 days to close here. That's from a letter of intent execution to closing. And those transactions were prefunded with equity and debted honestly, frankly, at different cost structures and different pricing.

我們仍然看到了廣泛的要價上限。令人驚訝的是，我們收到的大量電子郵件仍然要求 4 個處理，其中 10 年為 4.9%。因此，我們將繼續看到這種趨勢向上移動，就我們第三季度的交易而言，您是對的，平均需要 70 天才能在此結束。這是從意向書執行到成交的過程。這些交易是用股權預先融資的，並以不同的成本結構和不同的定價誠實、坦率地負債。

So we're going to continue to see cap rates move up. We'll be patient. It's difficult or really frankly, impossible for us to tell you what pace they will move up. That's going to be dependent upon individual sellers plus the macro environment here.

因此，我們將繼續看到上限利率上升。我們會耐心等待。我們很難或坦白說，不可能告訴你他們會以什麼速度前進。這將取決於個體賣家以及這裡的宏觀環境。

And if you had to raise new bank debt, so not on the accordion feature, but just if you had to raise new bank debt, what would that rate be?

如果你必須籌集新的銀行債務，那麼不是在手風琴功能上，而是如果你必須籌集新的銀行債務，那麼利率會是多少？

Assuming that we enter into a swap to fix the rate on a term loan, whether that's exercising the accordion on the $350 million term loan in July or entering into a net new term loan, the cost today would be in the mid-5s.

假設我們透過掉期來固定定期貸款的利率，無論是在 7 月對 3.5 億美元的定期貸款進行手風琴操作，還是簽訂新的淨定期貸款，今天的成本都將在 5 美元左右。

The next question comes from Michael Gorman from BTIG.

下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Michael Gorman。

Joey, I'm just trying to triangulate, obviously, a lot of conversations about the acquisitions market and the capital markets. As we think about your strategy over the next 3 months, given what you're seeing in the marketplace today, how are you thinking about your ability to finance versus the pricing that is actually flowing through your deal pipeline, right? So we get to the end of the year, will we see the debt to EBITDA move up towards that 5x? Or are you seeing cap rates where you would also be comfortable issuing on the ATM if you can close enough volume?

喬伊，顯然，我只是想對許多有關收購市場和資本市場的對話進行三角測量。當我們考慮您未來 3 個月的策略時，考慮到您今天在市場上看到的情況，您如何看待您的融資能力與實際流經交易管道的定價，對嗎？那麼到了今年年底，我們會看到 EBITDA 債務增加到 5 倍嗎？或者，如果您能關閉足夠的交易量，您是否會看到上限利率，您也可以放心在 ATM 上發行？

Again, it's really case-specific for us. I would anticipate that debt to EBITDA, we're sitting at 4.5x, to most likely migrate up nominally. But in terms of issuing capital on the ATM, again, if we saw something that was sizable, notable and it was, frankly, risk-adjusted appropriate that's possible. But I would tell you, I think most likely here, we exhibit patience and discipline.

再說一次，這對我們來說確實是針對具體情況的。我預計 EBITDA 債務為 4.5 倍，名義上很可能會上升。但就在 ATM 上發行資本而言，如果我們看到一些規模可觀、引人注目的東西，而且坦白說，經過風險調整後是適當的，那麼這是可能的。但我想告訴你，我認為我們很可能在這裡表現出耐心和紀律。

Okay. And then maybe just on the on the retailer side of the buy box. Are you seeing anything in the underlying macro data or in the financing markets for your tenants that's shrinking the targeted retailers or leading you to kind of take some of them off of your target list because of the current environment?

好的。然後也許就在購物車的零售商一側。您是否在基礎宏觀數據或租戶融資市場中看到任何東西正在縮小目標零售商的規模，或導致您因當前環境而將其中一些零售商從目標清單中刪除？

Generally, no, we're always looking at the retailers within our "sandbox", evaluating them, both in terms of exposure within our portfolio, but also how they're performing, inclusive of their balance sheet and any challenges or refinancing headwinds they have there. We really aren't seeing any challenges. Again, we're starting with the biggest retailers in the world here generally that have large liquid balance sheet and are primarily investment grade or if you ran them through some risk calc, would spit out investment grade. Some of them, frankly, have no debt. The private or unrated retailers. So we're not seeing any of that flow through yet.

一般來說，不會，我們總是關注「沙箱」內的零售商，評估他們，不僅包括我們投資組合中的風險敞口，還包括他們的表現，包括他們的資產負債表以及他們面臨的任何挑戰或再融資阻力。那裡有。我們確實沒有看到任何挑戰。同樣，我們從世界上最大的零售商開始，這些零售商通常擁有大量的流動資產負債表，並且主要是投資級別，或者如果你對它們進行一些風險計算，就會得出投資級別。坦白說，他們中的一些人沒有債務。私人或未評級零售商。所以我們還沒有看到任何進展。

If we see a material slowdown in consumers -- again, in the consumer behavior, I would tell you it would probably inure to the benefit of the retailers in our portfolio due to the trade-down effect.

如果我們看到消費者行為大幅放緩，我會告訴你，由於降價效應，這可能有利於我們投資組合中零售商的利益。

The next question comes from Rob Stevenson with Janney.

下一個問題來自羅布史蒂文森和珍妮。

Joey, it looks like you added a few CVSs in the quarter. What has you adding pharmacy given the issues and the store closures going on in that space?

Joey，看來您在本季添加了一些 CVS。考慮到藥房出現的問題和商店關閉，您增加了哪些藥房？

Well, the store closes are very specific here. I mean if you go through the major pharmacies Rite Aid, obviously, with the bankruptcy; Walgreens, which we've called out now for years and reduced to a de minimis piece of our portfolio, it used to be a top tenant for us, going through their challenges; CVS store closures are primarily stores that are high occupancy rates and, frankly, lease expiration. We're targeting and work jointly with our retail partners for a low basis assets. Those are low rents per square foot, high-performing stores, blend and extends and/or ground leases.

嗯，這裡的商店關門是非常具體的。我的意思是，如果你去各大藥局 Rite Aid，顯然已經破產了；沃爾格林（Walgreens），我們多年來一直在呼籲它，並在我們的投資組合中減少到微不足道的一部分，它曾經是我們的頂級租戶，正在經歷他們的挑戰； CVS 門市關閉主要是入住率高且坦白說是租約到期的門市。我們的目標是降低基礎資產，並與我們的零售合作夥伴共同合作。這些是每平方英尺的低租金、高性能商店、混合和擴展和/或地面租賃。

At the same time, our pharmacy exposure now is fairly de minimis. I mean it's down to 4.4% in the aggregate, that's including the 3 Rite Aids, of the overall portfolio. When you look at it relative to any peers, or most peers, I would tell you that's on the very low end. And so we've curated now a pharmacy portfolio, which we think has the cost structure to be successful in an omnichannel world and also but in a vertically integrated health care world. And so we work closely with -- specifically with the tenants in the pharmacy space, and there's only 1 that we acquire, to identify high-performing stores and/or opportunities that are, frankly, very different than the $350,000 to $400,000 per year in rent prototypical suburban pharmacy with a competitor across the street.

同時，我們現在的藥房風險相當小。我的意思是，包括 3 Rite Aids 在內，整體投資組合的比例已下降至 4.4%。當你相對於任何同行或大多數同行來看待它時，我會告訴你這是非常低的。因此，我們現在策劃了一個藥房組合，我們認為該組合具有在全通路世界以及垂直整合的醫療保健世界中取得成功的成本結構。因此，我們與——特別是藥房領域的租戶密切合作，我們只收購了1 個租戶，以識別表現優異的商店和/或機會，坦率地說，與每年350,000 美元到400,000 美元的收入有很大不同。與街對面的競爭對手一起租用典型的郊區藥房。

Okay. That's helpful. And then given the commentary on asset pricing and given that you have this grocery box that's soon to be vacated, how much demand is out there in the marketplace to sell vacant assets today? Who's buying those? I mean you've talked about the cap rate inflation on existing performing assets, for nonperforming assets and vacant assets. How is that market? Is that something that's gone south even faster? How should we be thinking about that?

好的。這很有幫助。然後考慮到對資產定價的評論，並考慮到這個雜貨箱即將騰空，今天市場上出售空置資產的需求有多少？誰在買這些？我的意思是，您已經談到了現有績效資產、不良資產和空置資產的上限利率通膨。那個市場怎麼樣？那是不是速度更快了？我們該如何思考這個問題？

It's really case specific, Rob. If you have a fungible box -- the one asset that Peter referenced in the grocery space we took an impairment on was a small format, rural grocery store, acquired several years ago in the grocer's hometown, it was a very frankly, rare store closure for them and has caused some upheaval in that -- frankly, in that community. But they had a second store in the community, which they thought was more viable on a go-forward basis.

這確實是針對具體情況的，羅布。如果你有一個可替代的盒子——彼得在我們減值的雜貨店領域提到的一項資產是一家小型鄉村雜貨店，幾年前在雜貨商的家鄉收購的，坦率地說，這是一家非常罕見的商店關閉對他們來說，並在其中——坦率地說，在那個社區——造成了一些動盪。但他們在社區裡有第二家商店，他們認為這在未來的基礎上更可行。

In terms of asset pricing for vacant box, it's really all over the board based upon what the -- obviously, with the demographics and transactional activity and really that micro submarket looks like, but also the fungibility of that box. And so the adaptive reuse of the box, which we always stress here is we wanted at the end of the day, if and when we were to have a vacancy, to have a fungible box that has a strong demand curve to it on the backside for uses. So if you have a large format vacant box today, and I'll say large format being anything over 40,000 feet, you're going to most likely have challenges. If it's a smaller box, again, in reference to our 3 Rite Aids, if we were to get those back, we're going to have significant demand. And so a lot of it is related to the adaptive reuse of the box.

就空置盒子的資產定價而言，它實際上完全基於——顯然，人口統計和交易活動以及微型子市場的樣子，而且還取決於該盒子的可替代性。因此，盒子的適應性重用，我們在這裡總是強調的是，我們希望在一天結束時，如果我們有空缺，有一個可替代的盒子，其背面有很強的需求曲線供用途。因此，如果您今天有一個大型空箱，我想說的是大型尺寸超過 40,000 英尺，您很可能會遇到挑戰。如果它是一個較小的盒子，再次參考我們的 3 Rite Aids，如果我們要收回它們，我們將會有很大的需求。所以很多都跟盒子的適應性重用有關。

Redeveloping larger boxes, cutting them up today with the cost challenges is very challenging. That's not something that we want to endeavor on. And so again, we're focused on those smaller assets that have the high-quality tenancy in place, but also the residual that we can get our arms around.

如今，面對成本挑戰，重新開發更大的盒子並對其進行切割是非常具有挑戰性的。這不是我們想要努力的事情。因此，我們再次關注那些擁有高品質租賃的較小資產，但也關注我們可以利用的剩餘資產。

And to be clear, the grocery box, you're looking to sell that? Or are you in the process of trying to re-tenant that?

要先明確的是，雜貨箱，你想賣掉它嗎？或者您正在嘗試重新租用它？

That will most likely be a disposition.

這很可能是一種傾向。

Next question comes from [Al Fagan] with Baird.

下一個問題來自 [Al Fagan] 和貝爾德。

The first one is, does ADC specifically target investment-grade tenants? And what is the competition like for those deals right now relative to the beginning of the year?

第一個是，ADC是否專門針對投資等級租戶？與年初相比，目前這些交易的競爭情況如何？

We've always said that's really an output. Our rating -- our investment-grade rating is really an output focusing on the 30 to 35 best retailers in the country. We have a number of retailers that we're actively targeting in or working with Hobby lobby, Publix, Alta in the portfolio today and in the future that don't carry -- Chick-fil-A being another one that we actively target and work with. So that's really an output for us. What was the second question?

我們總是說這確實是一種輸出。我們的評級——我們的投資級評級實際上是針對該國 30 至 35 家最佳零售商的產出。我們現在和未來的產品組合中都有許多我們積極瞄準或與 Hobbyobby、Publix、Alta 合作的零售商，但目前和未來都沒有——Chick-fil-A 是我們積極瞄準的另一家零售商，與. 一起工作。所以這對我們來說確實是一個輸出。第二個問題是什麼？

It's on the competition for those investment-grade type...

這是對那些投資等級類型的競爭......

Very little today. At the price points we're competing at, it's with the rare 1031 or private buyer, which has slowed down dramatically. And so there's very little competition except sellers' expectations themselves in this environment.

今天很少。在我們競爭的價格點上，它是與罕見的 1031 或私人買家競爭，其成長速度已大幅放緩。因此，在這種環境下，除了賣家本身的期望之外，幾乎沒有競爭。

Helpful. On the 2 development deals you guys signed this quarter, was that in the later half of the quarter or closer to the beginning?

有幫助。在本季你們簽署的兩份開發協議中，是在本季後半段還是接近季度初的時候？

Peter, do you have that off hand?

彼得，你有這個嗎？

I don't have the timing for those 2 specific projects off hand. No.

我手頭上沒有這兩個具體項目的時間安排。不。

Yes, we can get back to you, [Al] on the specific timing.

是的，我們可以就具體時間與您聯繫，[Al]。

The next question comes from Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的羅納德·卡姆德姆。

Just 2 quick ones. So 1 on the pipeline. I think you talked about over 7 coming through. Just curious, does this pipeline look any different from what it did early in the year, whether in terms of size or tenant mix? Just trying to figure out how that pipeline has shifted, if at all?

就2個快的。所以管道上有1。我想你談到了超過 7 個。只是好奇，無論是在規模還是租戶組合方面，這條管道看起來與今年年初有什麼不同嗎？只是想弄清楚這條管道是如何改變的（如果有的話）？

Tenant mix is the same as you've seen throughout the year and will continue to be similar as we've executed in years past. Size, again, is really at our election, subject to where we think the appropriate risk-adjusted spreads are. So we have a number of assets that are currently -- under our properties that are currently under control.

租戶組合與您全年看到的相同，並將繼續與我們過去幾年執行的類似。同樣，規模實際上是由我們選擇的，取決於我們認為適當的風險調整利差。因此，我們目前擁有許多資產，這些資產目前處於我們的控制之下。

We'll make decisions. We're nonrefundable on purchase agreements, we have letters of intent executed given the rapid rise in the 10-year and the relative cost of capital, we'll make decisions in the upcoming weeks on whether or not we want to pursue those acquisitions to close or we want to be patient and remain disciplined capital allocators.

我們會做出決定。我們的購買協議是不可退款的，考慮到過去 10 年的快速增長和相對資本成本，我們已經執行了意向書，我們將在未來幾週內決定是否要繼續進行這些收購或我們希望保持耐心並保持紀律嚴明的資本配置者。

Great. And then on the ground leases acquired during the quarter as well as the portfolio. Maybe can you talk about are those cap rates behaving any differently from sort of the rest of the market? And what opportunities -- or how are you seeing opportunities shake out on the ground lease front?

偉大的。然後是本季獲得的地面租賃以及投資組合。也許你能談談這些上限利率的表現與市場其他部分有什麼不同嗎？以及您如何看待地面租賃的機會？

Really, really no differentiated behavior than the rest of the market. I'd tell you, right now, our Q4 pipeline has -- and that could change based upon the election of what we proceed with as well as what we source. Our Q4 pipeline has a material component of ground leases. But it's been pretty consistent throughout the year, call it, that 8 plus or minus percent, but no true differentiated trends that you can see there versus standard or typical net leases.

確實，與市面上其他產品相比，確實沒有什麼差異化的行為。我想告訴你，現在我們的第四季度管道已經——並且這可能會根據我們對繼續進行的項目以及我們採購的項目的選擇而改變。我們的第四季管道有地面租賃的重要組成部分。但全年都相當一致，可以稱之為正負 8%，但與標準或典型的淨租賃相比，你看不到真正的差異化趨勢。

The next question comes from Linda Tsai with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Linda Tsai。

What percent of your deals have been sale leasebacks year-to-date? And would you expect that to grow as a percentage headed into next year?

今年迄今為止，您的交易中有多少是售後回租？您預計明年這比例會成長嗎？

Linda. So this year, approximately 25% of our transactions have been sale leaseback. That's in comparison to historic couple of past years here, that was about 10%. We're always working with retailers on potential sale leaseback transactions. We did a couple of new -- worked with a couple of new retailers this quarter on sale-leaseback transactions, most notably in the farm and rural supply space. We'll continue to evaluate that market. We're engaged in active dialogue. And again, it comes down to cap rate and risk-adjusted returns for us.

琳達。因此，今年我們大約 25% 的交易是售後回租。與過去幾年的歷史記錄相比，這一數字約為 10%。我們一直在與零售商就潛在的售後回租交易進行合作。本季我們與幾家新零售商就售後回租交易進行了一些新的合作，尤其是在農場和農村供應領域。我們將繼續評估該市場。我們正在積極對話。再說一遍，這取決於我們的上限利率和風險調整回報。

And then how do you think about the retailer environment right now? I think people thought you might have been in a recession by now, but clearly, that hasn't happened. And so do you feel better about the overall consumer environment now versus, say, a quarter ago?

那麼您如何看待現在的零售商環境呢？我認為人們認為現在可能已經陷入衰退，但顯然，這並沒有發生。那麼，與一個季度前相比，您對現在的整體消費環境感覺更好嗎？

It's been a long 90 days. It's tough to remember a quarter ago. Look, I think we have talk of hard landings again. I think we're looking at a consumer that is really trifurcated and not bifurcated. I think we're seeing pressure on that consumer with multiple different data points. And so it's a unique -- this is a unique and one-of-a-kind environment that we've never been through in history. There's -- I'm not going to pontificate or guess in the probability of a hard landing or soft landing or no landing at all. But I do think we're going to watch the consumer. But I think most importantly, again, this is not a discretionary based portfolio. It's not an experiential-based portfolio. This is a portfolio that consists primarily of core brick-and-mortar goods and services with the largest retailers in the country.

這是漫長的90天。很難想起四分之一年前的事。聽著，我想我們又開始談論硬著陸了。我認為我們正在關注的是一個真正三叉的消費者，而不是一個二元的消費者。我認為我們看到消費者面臨多個不同數據點的壓力。所以這是一種獨特的——這是一個我們歷史上從未經歷過的獨特的、獨特的環境。我不會武斷地猜測或猜測硬著陸、軟著陸或根本不著陸的可能性。但我確實認為我們會關心消費者。但我認為最重要的是，這不是基於自由裁量權的投資組合。這不是一個基於經驗的投資組合。此產品組合主要由國內最大零售商提供的核心實體商品和服務組成。

So if and when that consumer weakened significantly, I would expect the retailers, the largest retailers in the world that are contained within our portfolio, to outperform and take share. And that's been the consistent theme that we've seen all year, even in the absence of a recession is these retailers that have the balance sheets to invest in price, fulfillment strategies as well as labor are taking market share from smaller retailers today.

因此，如果消費者顯著減弱，我預計我們投資組合中包含的世界上最大的零售商將表現出色並佔據份額。這是我們全年看到的一致主題，即使在沒有經濟衰退的情況下，這些擁有資產負債表可投資於價格、履行策略以及勞動力的零售商正在從較小的零售商手中奪取市場份額。

And so those 3 strategies of investment are really taking hold. We see it in Walmart's prints, we see it in Home Depot's prints, we see it in Lowe's prints. We see it in all the larger retailers out there today are still successfully navigating this environment to the most part. And so again, if we had an experiential or discretionary-based portfolio or a luxury-based portfolio, I would be concerned I think ultimately, if and when we do enter into a recession, the retailers in this portfolio will benefit.

因此，這三種投資策略正在真正發揮作用。我們在沃爾瑪的印刷品中看到它，在家得寶的印刷品中看到它，在勞氏的印刷品中看到它。我們在今天所有較大的零售商身上看到了這一點，它們在很大程度上仍然成功地駕馭了這種環境。再說一次，如果我們有一個基於體驗或可自由支配的投資組合或一個基於奢侈品的投資組合，我會擔心我認為最終，如果我們確實進入衰退，這個​​投資組合中的零售商將受益。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Joey Agree for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回喬伊同意任何結束語。

Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We look forward to talking to you or seeing you in the near future, and we appreciate everybody's time. Thanks again.

好的，謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待在不久的將來與您交談或見到您，感謝大家的寶貴時間。再次感謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。