美國廢棄物管理公司 (WM) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 2025 營收略低於年初預期,主因回收商品價格下跌與第一季嚴寒天氣,但 EBITDA 與自由現金流均優於預期,Q2 營運 EBITDA 年增 19%,全公司 EBITDA margin 接近 30%,創歷史新高水準。
    • 上修 2025 年自由現金流指引至 28-29 億美元,並將全年 EBITDA margin 指引上調 40 個基點至中位數,確認全年 EBITDA 指引 75.5 億美元。
    • 市場反應未明確揭露,但管理層強調核心業務與併購協同效益持續推動長期成長,並維持積極併購與資本回饋。
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 核心收運與掩埋場業務持續推動 EBITDA 成長,Q2 掩埋場量顯著增長,MSW 與 C&D 廢棄物量均強勁。
      • 科技投資(如車隊連網、路線優化、維修預警)有效降低營運成本,提升運營效率與服務差異化。
      • 可持續發展平台(回收、再生能源)帶動高回報投資,Q2 回收事業 EBITDA 年增 17%,再生能源業務毛利提升,90% 2025 年 RNG 銷售已鎖定。
      • WM Healthcare Solutions 併購協同效益加速釋放,預計 2025 年可達 1 億美元高標,長期目標協同效益 3 億美元。
    • 風險:
      • 回收商品價格年減近 15%,對回收事業營收與 EBITDA 有負面影響,雖然自動化投資部分抵銷衝擊。
      • 第一季嚴寒天氣與大型住宅合約流失對全年營收造成約 1% 下修,未來仍需關注極端天氣與合約競爭。
      • Healthcare Solutions 整合初期對集團合併毛利有 140-145 個基點拖累,需持續優化 ERP 與後台流程。
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Q2 全公司營運 EBITDA margin 接近 30%,WM legacy business(不含醫療)達 31.3%,年增 130 個基點。
    • Q2 收運與掩埋場業務 EBITDA margin 37.9%,年增 60 個基點,全年預期 margin 年增 110 個基點。
    • Q2 掩埋場量年增 4.5%,MSW 與 C&D 廢棄物量均強勁,C&D 量年增 9.4%。
    • Q2 收運與掩埋場量年增 1.6%,全年預期量增長 0.25%-0.75%。
    • Q2 回收事業 EBITDA 年增 17%,雖然回收商品價格年減 15%。
    • Healthcare Solutions 併購後 EBITDA margin 已提升 190 個基點,SG&A 率降至 20.9%,目標三年內降至 17%。
    • 車隊維修成本率年減 70 個基點,駕駛與技術人員流動率降至 18.8%,年減 370 個基點。
  4. 財務預測
    • 2025 年營收預估較年初下修約 1%,主因回收價格與天氣因素。
    • 2025 年全公司 EBITDA 指引維持 75.5 億美元,全年 EBITDA margin 上調 40 個基點至中位數。
    • 2025 年自由現金流上修至 28-29 億美元,資本支出預計全年重心在下半年,前半年已達 15.6 億美元。
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 下半年 EBITDA margin 走勢與季節性展望?Healthcare Solutions 對合併毛利的影響?
      A: 下半年 Healthcare Solutions 拖累將減輕 10-20 個基點,收運與掩埋場 margin 預期全年增 110 個基點,Q2 掩埋場量高峰不會重現,整體 margin 仍看好。
    • Q: 全年收運與掩埋場量增長預期?Q2 wildfire cleanup 與合約流失影響?
      A: 全年量增長預期維持 0.25%-0.75%,Q2 wildfire cleanup 有正面貢獻,合約流失影響已反映,全年預期不變。
    • Q: 回收商品價格下跌下,回收事業 EBITDA 仍成長,主因為何?自動化投資效益?
      A: 回收事業 EBITDA 年增 17%,主因自動化投資帶來效率與量增,雖然商品價格下跌,但自動化讓我們能吸引更多客戶並提升毛利。
    • Q: Healthcare Solutions 協同效益進度與長期目標?SG&A 降本空間?
      A: 2025 年協同效益預期達 1 億美元高標,三年目標 3 億美元,SG&A 率今年底目標降至 20% 以下,三年內降至 17%,ERP 整合後有望進一步降本。
    • Q: M&A 進度與全年指引納入情形?
      A: 今年已完成 DC 區域大型併購,全年 M&A 預計 5 億美元,管道持續強勁,指引已納入年初至今已完成併購。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the WM second quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's conference is being recorded.

    女士們、先生們,大家好。感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 WM 第二季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。

  • I will now hand the conference over to your speaker host, Ed Egl, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在,我將會議交給主持人、投資人關係副總裁 Ed Egl。請繼續。

  • Ed Egl - IR Contact Officer

    Ed Egl - IR Contact Officer

  • Thank you, Olivia. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. With me this morning are Jim Fish, Chief Executive Officer; John Morris, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Devina Rankin, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. You will hear prepared comments from each of them today. Jim will cover high-level financials and provide a strategic update. John will cover an operating overview, and Devina will cover the details of the financials.

    謝謝你,奧莉維亞。大家早安,感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天早上與我一起出席的有首席執行官吉姆·菲什 (Jim Fish)、總裁兼首席營運官約翰·莫里斯 (John Morris) 和執行副總裁兼首席財務官德維娜·蘭金 (Devina Rankin)。今天你們將會聽到他們每個人準備好的評論。吉姆將負責高層財務事務並提供策略更新。約翰 (John) 將介紹營運概況,而德維娜 (Devina) 將介紹財務細節。

  • Before we get started, please note that we filed a Form 8-K that includes the earnings press release and is available on our website at www.wm.com. The Form 8-K, the press release and the schedules of the press release include important information.

    在開始之前,請注意,我們已提交包含收益新聞稿的 8-K 表格,可在我們的網站 www.wm.com 上查閱。 8-K 表格、新聞稿及其附表包含重要資訊。

  • During the call, you will hear forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, projections or opinions about future periods. All forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Some of these risks and uncertainties are discussed in today's press release and in our filings with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Qs.

    在通話過程中,您將聽到前瞻性陳述,這些陳述是基於當前的預期、預測或對未來時期的意見。所有前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果大不相同。今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件(包括我們最新的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格)討論了其中一些風險和不確定性。

  • John will discuss our results in the areas of yield and volume, which unless stated otherwise, are more specifically references to internal revenue growth or IRG from yield or volume. During the call, Jim, John and Devina will discuss operating EBITDA, which is income from operations before depreciation and amortization. References to the WM legacy business are total WM results, excluding the WM Healthcare Solutions segment.

    約翰將討論我們在收益和數量方面的成果,除非另有說明,否則更具體地指的是收益或數量產生的內部收入增長或 IRG。在通話中,Jim、John 和 Devina 將討論營業 EBITDA,即折舊和攤銷前的營業收入。對 WM 遺留業務的引用是 WM 整體業績,不包括 WM 醫療保健解決方案部門。

  • Any comparisons, unless otherwise stated, will be with the prior year period. Net income, EPS, income from operations and margin operating EBITDA margin, operating expense and margin and SG&A expense and margin have been adjusted to enhance comparability by excluding certain items that management believes do not reflect our fundamental business performance or results of operations.

    除非另有說明,任何比較均與去年同期進行。淨收入、每股收益、營業收入及利潤率、營業 EBITDA 利潤率、營業費用及利潤率以及銷售、一般及行政費用及利潤率已進行調整,透過排除管理層認為不反映我們基本業務表現或經營成果的某些項目,以提高可比性。

  • These adjusted measures, in addition to free cash flow, are non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the earnings press release and tables, which can be found on the company's website at www.wm.com for reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our use of non-GAAP measures. This call is being recorded and will be available 24 hours a day beginning approximately 01:00 PM Eastern Time today. You will hear a replay of the call accessed the WM website at www.investors.wm.com.

    除了自由現金流之外,這些調整後的指標都是非公認會計準則指標。請參閱公司網站 www.wm.com 上的收益新聞稿和表格,以了解與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對帳情況以及有關我們使用非 GAAP 指標的更多資訊。本次通話將被錄音,並將於今天東部時間下午 1:00 左右開始全天 24 小時提供。您將透過 WM 網站 www.investors.wm.com 收聽該通話的重播。

  • Time-sensitive information provided during today's call, which is occurring on July 29, 2025, may no longer be accurate at the time of a replay. Any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call in any form without the expressed written consent of WM is prohibited.

    今天的電話會議(2025 年 7 月 29 日舉行)中提供的時間敏感資訊在重播時可能不再準確。未經 WM 明確書面同意,禁止以任何形式重新分發、重新傳輸或重新廣播此通話。

  • Now, I'll turn the call over to WM CEO, Jim Fish.

    現在,我將把電話轉給 WM 執行長 Jim Fish。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Ed, and thank you all for joining us. Coming out of last month's Investor Day, we're energized by WM's strategy, which combines our unreplicable core business with new platforms for growth, generating consistent long-term value for years to come. It's our sustained strong results across all market cycles that we believe makes us a forever stock, the type of stock you buy and hold indefinitely. We continue to deliver strong results quarter in and quarter out, year in and year out, driven by a disciplined strategy aligned with secular trends, a proven ability to further execute and implementation of technology to both significantly lower our cost structure and differentiate us from our competition.

    謝謝,艾德,也謝謝大家加入我們。上個月的投資者日讓我們對 WM 的策略充滿活力,該策略將我們不可複製的核心業務與新的成長平台相結合,在未來幾年產生持續的長期價值。我們相信,正是我們在所有市場週期中持續強勁的業績,使我們成為一隻永遠的股票,是一隻值得您購買並無限期持有的股票。我們繼續逐季、逐年地取得強勁業績,這得益於與長期趨勢相一致的嚴謹戰略、經過驗證的進一步執行和實施技術的能力,這不僅顯著降低了我們的成本結構,也使我們在競爭中脫穎而出。

  • There's no better evidence of our power of our growth engine than our 19% operating EBITDA growth in the second quarter. Yet again, our collection and disposal business drove the growth, contributing more than half of the year-over-year increase in operating EBITDA. Within our collection and disposal business, our focus remains on growing customer lifetime value, utilizing technology to optimize our cost structure and leveraging our unreplicable asset network.

    我們第二季 19% 的營業 EBITDA 成長率最能證明我們的成長引擎的強大。我們的收集和處置業務再次推動了成長,貢獻了營業 EBITDA 年成長的一半以上。在我們的收集和處置業務中,我們的重點仍然是提高客戶終身價值,利用技術優化我們的成本結構並利用我們不可複製的資產網路。

  • Landfill volumes were particularly strong in the quarter, demonstrating the value of our advantaged disposal network. This is best reflected in our MSW volume growth as we continue to capture solid waste volume in key markets across our network.

    本季垃圾掩埋量特別大,彰顯了我們優越的處置網路的價值。隨著我們繼續在整個網路中捕獲主要市場的固體廢物量,這一點最好地反映在我們的城市固體廢物量增長中。

  • We also saw growth in special waste volumes, which is largely related to wildfire cleanup in California, as we're uniquely positioned to be a dependable community partner during times of recovery and rebuilding. Additionally, we continue to identify opportunities to scale the core business through acquisitions. In the quarter, we completed the acquisition of a regional solid waste player in the Washington, DC, area, adding complementary operations in a key geography and adding a great team to our existing WM operations.

    我們也看到特殊廢物量的增長,這主要與加州的野火清理有關,因為我們在恢復和重建期間具有獨特的優勢,可以成為可靠的社區合作夥伴。此外,我們繼續尋找透過收購擴大核心業務的機會。本季度,我們完成了對華盛頓特區一家區域固體廢棄物處理公司的收購,在關鍵地區增加了互補業務,並為我們現有的 WM 業務增添了一支優秀的團隊。

  • We have a very robust pipeline of tuck-in opportunities to continue to expect acquisition spending to total more than $500 million for the year. The strength of our sustainability platform continues to distinguish the WM brand in the industry in ways that are difficult for others to replicate. For decades, we've been investing in recycling in renewable energy growth, and we accelerated that investment four years ago, aligning ourselves with key secular drivers of circularity and energy demand. The results we're generating clearly support our investment thesis as both our recycling and renewable energy segments delivered margin enhanced growth in the quarter.

    我們擁有非常強大的收購機會,預計今年的收購支出總額將持續超過 5 億美元。我們永續發展平台的優勢繼續使 WM 品牌在行業中脫穎而出,而其他品牌難以複製。幾十年來,我們一直在投資再生能源的回收利用,四年前我們加快了這項投資,與循環利用和能源需求的關鍵長期驅動力保持一致。我們所取得的成果明確支持了我們的投資論點,因為我們的回收和再生能源部門在本季度都實現了利潤成長。

  • Even as recycled commodity prices declined by nearly 15% compared to last year, our recycling segment operating EBITDA grew by 17%. We believe in these high-return investments, and we continue to execute on the remaining projects in our portfolio, having commenced operations on three new projects during the quarter, a renewable natural gas facility in Illinois, a recycling automation project in Pennsylvania and a new market recycling facility in Oregon.

    儘管再生商品價格較去年同期下降了近 15%,但我們的回收部門營運 EBITDA 卻增加了 17%。我們相信這些高回報投資,並將繼續執行我們投資組合中剩餘的項目,本季度已開始運營三個新項目,即伊利諾伊州的可再生天然氣設施、賓夕法尼亞州的回收自動化項目和俄勒岡州的新市場回收設施。

  • Additionally, we're making significant progress in integrating WM Healthcare solutions into WM. We've positioned ourselves to capitalize on the ongoing growth trends in healthcare and are utilizing our advanced reporting and analytics platform, along with our extensive asset network to deliver enhanced value for our customers.

    此外,我們在將 WM Healthcare 解決方案整合到 WM 方面也取得了重大進展。我們已做好準備,利用醫療保健領域持續的成長趨勢,並利用我們先進的報告和分析平台以及廣泛的資產網路為我們的客戶提供更高的價值。

  • We've known this is going to be a needle mover for us, and you're starting to see it in our results. We're successfully identifying and capturing synergies and on track to achieve the upper end of the targeted synergies of $80 million to $100 million in 2025. There's no doubt that our results to date support the strategic rationale of this acquisition, and we see significant opportunities ahead.

    我們知道這對我們來說將是一個重大的推動力,而且您也開始在我們的結果中看到這一點。我們成功地識別並抓住了協同效應,並預計在 2025 年實現 8,000 萬至 1 億美元的目標協同效應的上限。毫無疑問,我們迄今為止的業績支持了此次收購的戰略原理,並且我們看到了未來的重大機會。

  • In closing, WM is exceptionally well positioned for future success. We've deployed a long-term strategy that's delivering, and we're executing with discipline to extend our advantages. We're also investing in growth platforms that provide incremental growth, complement our scale and widen our moat. That's what makes WM a forever stock, and that's what you see in our second quarter results.

    最後,WM 已為未來的成功做好了充分的準備。我們已經制定了一項正在發揮作用的長期策略,並且正在嚴格執行,以擴大我們的優勢。我們也投資於能夠提供增量成長、補充我們的規模和拓寬我們的護城河的成長平台。這就是 WM 成為永久股票的原因,這也是您在我們的第二季業績中看到的。

  • Now, I'll turn the call over to John to discuss our operational results.

    現在,我將把電話轉給約翰來討論我們的營運成果。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. The second quarter 2025 marked another period of strong consistent performance for our business, continuing a multi-year trend of steady execution and standout results. The performance we're delivering is the direct result of long-term investments we've made in technology, in infrastructure and most importantly, in our people.

    謝謝,吉姆,大家早安。2025 年第二季標誌著我們業務又一個強勁持續表現的時期,延續了多年穩步執行和出色業績的趨勢。我們所取得的業績直接源自於我們對技術、基礎設施以及最重要的人才的長期投資。

  • As we discussed at Investor Day last month, we are using the WM way, which is our framework to drive operational excellence to build a more modern, more connected WM, and the results we've delivered in Q2 continue to reflect that strategy. We saw solid margin expansion and revenue growth across nearly all lines of business, with particular strength in landfill, commercial collection and transfer operations.

    正如我們上個月在投資者日所討論的那樣,我們正在使用 WM 方式,這是我們推動卓越運營以構建更現代、更互聯的 WM 的框架,我們在第二季度取得的成果繼續反映了這一戰略。我們看到幾乎所有業務線的利潤率和收入都穩定成長,尤其是在垃圾掩埋、商業收集和轉運業務方面。

  • Our second quarter collection and disposal operating EBITDA improved 60 basis points to 37.9%. These results were driven by our strong landfill volumes, the team's focus on customer lifetime value and the investments we've made in new trucks that help reduce downtime and maintenance costs.

    我們第二季的收款和處置營運 EBITDA 提高了 60 個基點,達到 37.9%。這些結果得益於我們強大的垃圾掩埋量、團隊對客戶終身價值的關注以及我們對有助於減少停機時間和維護成本的新卡車的投資。

  • We continue to see strong pricing discipline across the board. Core price remained healthy in the second quarter at 6.4% with collection and disposal yield improving sequentially to 4.1%. Regarding volume, second quarter collection and disposal volume increased by 1.6%, influenced by two notable events. Landfill volume benefited from peak contribution of wildfire cleanup while the loss of a relatively large franchise contract had a negative effect on residential and commercial volumes. But overall, our full year volume expectations remain between 0.25% and 0.75%.

    我們繼續看到各方面都表現出嚴格的定價紀律。第二季核心價格維持健康,為 6.4%,收集和處置收益率季增至 4.1%。從數量來看,受兩件值得注意的事件的影響,第二季的收集和處理量增加了 1.6%。垃圾掩埋場的掩埋量受益於野火清理的高峰貢獻,而相對較大的特許經營合約的損失對住宅和商業掩埋量產生了負面影響。但總體而言,我們對全年銷售的預期仍在 0.25% 至 0.75% 之間。

  • Turning to operating expenses. One of the clearest indicators of the progress we're making is our ability to consistently reduce operating costs as a percentage of revenue. As we shared at Investor Day, structurally lowering our cost base isn't about temporary cuts, it's about using technology and process discipline to build a more efficient, scalable model for the long term, and our team delivered that in Q2. The second quarter marks a record period in which we achieved operating expenses below 60% of revenue. This reflects the significant progress we've made in connecting the full value chain of WM from routing and fleet management to customer communication and maintenance.

    談到營運費用。我們取得進展的最明顯指標之一是我們能夠持續降低營運成本佔收入的百分比。正如我們在投資者日所分享的那樣,從結構上降低成本基礎並不是暫時的削減,而是利用技術和流程紀律來構建一個更有效率、可擴展的長期模型,我們的團隊在第二季度實現了這一目標。第二季度,我們的營業費用創下了低於收入 60% 的記錄。這反映了我們在連接從路線和車隊管理到客戶溝通和維護的 WM 整個價值鏈方面取得的重大進展。

  • Our connected fleet continues to serve as a key differentiator. We achieved 70 basis points improvement in repair and maintenance costs as a percentage of revenue in the second quarter as real-time telematics are helping us anticipate and resolve vehicle issues faster, reduce downtime and streamline maintenance scheduling. This allows us to provide great service to our customers by helping to make sure each route is run it safely, efficiently and predictably as possible.

    我們的互聯車隊繼續成為關鍵的差異化因素。由於即時遠端資訊處理幫助我們更快地預測和解決車輛問題、減少停機時間並簡化維護計劃,我們在第二季度將維修和維護成本佔收入的百分比提高了 70 個基點。這使我們能夠確保每條航線盡可能安全、有效率且可預測地運行,從而為客戶提供優質服務。

  • Looking ahead, we believe we're still in the early innings of what this integrated technology can do for our operations, and we're excited about what's to come. As always, none of this happens without our people. Turnover improved 370 basis points this quarter to 18.8% for drivers and technicians combined, and it's no coincidence that we're seeing parallel improvements in safety, service and operational consistency.

    展望未來,我們相信這項綜合技術對我們的營運的貢獻才剛開始,我們對未來的發展充滿期待。一如既往,沒有我們的員工,這一切都不會發生。本季度,司機和技術人員的流動率提高了 370 個基點,達到 18.8%,我們看到安全、服務和營運一致性也在同步改善,這絕非巧合。

  • We focused on modernizing the work environment, whether it's upgrading maintenance shops to be digitally enabled, refining coaching programs for our drivers or building pathways for new talent to grow in their careers with us and it's making a difference. We're attracting the next generation of skilled workers by showing them that WM is a place where innovation and impact meat.

    我們專注於實現工作環境的現代化,無論是升級維修店以實現數位化,改進駕駛員的培訓計劃,還是為新人才建立與我們一起成長的職業道路,這些都正在產生積極的影響。我們正在吸引下一代技術工人,向他們展示 WM 是一個創新和影響肉類的地方。

  • To wrap up, our Q2 results reinforce the effectiveness of our long-term strategy. WM is not just operating from a position of strength. We're actively expanding our lead through focused execution and long-term thinking. I want to thank our team members for their dedication, their innovation and their commitment to doing the job right every day. Their efforts are creating lasting value for customers, communities and shareholders.

    總而言之,我們的第二季業績鞏固了我們長期策略的有效性。WM 並非僅僅憑藉實力來運作。我們正在透過專注的執行和長期思考積極擴大我們的領先地位。我要感謝我們團隊成員的奉獻精神、創新精神以及每天做好工作的承諾。他們的努力正在為客戶、社區和股東創造持久的價值。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Devina to walk through our financial results in more detail.

    接下來,我將把電話轉給 Devina,讓她更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, John, and good morning. In the second quarter, we drove profitable growth in each segment of our business and delivered total company operating EBITDA margin of almost 30%, quickly approaching historical best levels despite the known headwinds from the acquisition of the Healthcare Solutions business. This result was achieved because our legacy business continued to deliver margin expansion and because we are quickly improving the cost structure of healthcare solutions.

    謝謝,約翰,早安。在第二季度,我們推動了各個業務部門的獲利成長,公司整體營運 EBITDA 利潤率達到近 30%,儘管收購醫療解決方案業務帶來了已知的阻力,但仍迅速接近歷史最佳水平。取得這項成果的原因是,我們的傳統業務繼續實現利潤率擴張,我們正在迅速改善醫療保健解決方案的成本結構。

  • WM's legacy business delivered 130 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter, resulting in operating EBITDA margin of 31.3%. The improvement was driven by strong landfill volumes, the growth of our sustainability business and our continued focus on improving the price to cost spread in the collection and disposal business. These positives were slightly offset by the expiration of alternative fuel tax credits, which had a negative 30 basis points impact for the quarter. The key takeaway from the margin bridge is that strong contributions from our core solid waste business and the results of our sustainability growth investments provided meaningful margin uplift.

    WM 的遺留業務在本季度實現了 130 個基點的利潤率成長,從而使營業 EBITDA 利潤率達到 31.3%。這項改善得益於垃圾掩埋量的增加、我們可持續發展業務的成長以及我們持續致力於改善收集和處置業務的價格成本差。但這些正面因素因替代燃料稅收抵免政策的到期而略微被抵消,對本季產生了 30 個基點的負面衝擊。利潤橋的關鍵在於,我們的核心固體廢棄物業務的強勁貢獻以及永續發展成長投資的成果帶來了顯著的利潤提升。

  • Turning to WM Healthcare Solutions. Our focus on optimizing this business, including through synergy capture has led to 190 basis points improvement in operating EBITDA margin since the acquisition. This progress has been particularly swift in reducing SG&A costs as we work to optimize the sales and back office functions of the combined organization. We're pleased with our progress. And as Jim noted, we're on track to achieve the high end of our full year synergy expectations of between $80 million and $100 million in 2025.

    轉向 WM 醫療保健解決方案。我們專注於優化這項業務,包括透過協同效應,自收購以來,營業 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 190 個基點。在我們努力優化合併後組織的銷售和後台職能的過程中,降低銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 成本的進展尤為迅速。我們對我們的進展感到滿意。正如吉姆所指出的,我們預計在 2025 年實現全年協同效應預期的高端,即 8,000 萬美元至 1 億美元。

  • Moving to our cash flow results. Operating cash flow was $2.75 billion in the first half of 2025, an increase of 9% compared to the same period in 2024. The increase was driven by our strong earnings growth partially offset by higher cash interest, primarily due to the additional debt issued last year to fund the acquisition of Stericycle.

    轉向我們的現金流結果。2025年上半年營運現金流為27.5億美元,較2024年同期成長9%。這一成長主要得益於我們強勁的獲利成長,但被更高的現金利息部分抵消,這主要歸因於去年為收購 Stericycle 而發行的額外債務。

  • Through the first six months of the year, capital expenditures totaled $1.56 billion. Capital spending to support the business and our sustainability growth investments are both tracking in line with our expectations. Our capital expenditures are typically more heavily weighted toward the back half of the year. But in 2025, we successfully pulled forward some of our truck delivery, which has provided benefits to the business and our operating expense margin. Putting this together, free cash flow in the first half of the year was $1.29 billion, and we're on track to achieve our upwardly revised free cash flow guidance for the year.

    今年前六個月,資本支出總額達 15.6 億美元。支持業務的資本支出和永續成長投資均符合我們的預期。我們的資本支出通常更集中在下半年。但在 2025 年,我們成功提前了部分卡車運輸,這為業務和我們的營業費用利潤率帶來了好處。綜合起來,今年上半年的自由現金流為 12.9 億美元,我們有望實現今年上調的自由現金流指引。

  • Through the first two quarters of 2025, we returned $669 million to shareholders and dividends and allocated $378 million to solid waste acquisitions. Our leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 3.5 times. We remain focused on quickly getting back to targeted leverage levels through a combination of earnings growth and debt reduction, and we currently project we will achieve our target in the first half of 2026.

    截至 2025 年前兩個季度,我們向股東和股息返還了 6.69 億美元,並撥款 3.78 億美元用於固體廢棄物收購。我們本季末的槓桿率為3.5倍。我們仍然致力於透過獲利成長和債務削減相結合的方式迅速恢復到目標槓桿水平,我們目前預計我們將在 2026 年上半年實現目標。

  • With half of 2025 complete and confidence in our continued ability to deliver on strategic priorities, we're confirming and updating our 2025 guidance. We've always said that operating EBITDA and free cash flow are the two best measures of performance, and we're positioned to deliver results that need meet or exceed our initial guidance for each of these measures in 2025. We're affirming the midpoint of operating EBITDA guidance of $7.55 billion and increasing our expectations for 2025 free cash flow to between $2.8 billion and $2.9 billion.

    2025 年已過半,我們對繼續實現策略重點的能力充滿信心,因此我們正在確認並更新 2025 年的指導方針。我們一直說,營業 EBITDA 和自由現金流是衡量績效的兩個最佳指標,我們的目標是在 2025 年實現達到或超過我們對這兩項指標的初步預期的績效。我們確認營運 EBITDA 指引的中點為 75.5 億美元,並將 2025 年自由現金流預期提高至 28 億美元至 29 億美元之間。

  • Revenue for the year will be about 1% below our initial expectations due to a couple of factors outside of our control, recycled commodity prices and the harsh winter weather of the first quarter. Our team's focus on optimizing what we control, delivering on our top strategic priorities and reducing our cost to serve, position us to overcome this small revenue headwind and deliver more than 15% EBITDA growth in the year.

    由於一些我們無法控制的因素,包括再生商品價格和第一季嚴酷的冬季天氣,今年的收入將比我們最初的預期低約 1%。我們的團隊專注於優化我們控制的內容、實現我們的首要戰略重點並降低我們的服務成本,這使我們能夠克服這一小筆收入逆風並在當年實現超過 15% 的 EBITDA 增長。

  • Our strong collection and disposal operating expense margin, SG&A synergy capture in the Healthcare Solutions business at the high end of our initial outlook and lower recycled commodity prices are expected to position us to generate even stronger operating EBITDA margins in 2025 than we initially expected. And so we are also increasing our full year expectations for operating EBITDA margin by 40 basis points at the midpoint. We're pleased with our performance in the first half of the year, which positions us to achieve another year of strong earnings, margin and cash flow growth.

    我們強勁的收集和處置營運費用利潤率、醫療保健解決方案業務中銷售、一般及行政費用協同效應達到我們最初預期的高端以及較低的再生商品價格預計將使我們在 2025 年產生比我們最初預期更高的營運 EBITDA 利潤率。因此,我們也將全年營業 EBITDA 利潤率預期中位數提高了 40 個基點。我們對上半年的業績感到滿意,這使我們能夠在新的一年實現強勁的盈利、利潤率和現金流增長。

  • In closing, I want to extend my appreciation to the entire WM team. The strength of our results is a direct reflection of their commitment to our customers and our communities, and it's their continued focus that positions us for success throughout the rest of the year.

    最後,我要向整個 WM 團隊表示感謝。我們業績的強勁直接反映了他們對我們的客戶和社區的承諾,而他們的持續關注使我們在今年剩餘時間裡取得成功。

  • With that, Olivia, let's open the line for questions.

    奧莉維亞,現在讓我們開始提問吧。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bryan Burgmeier, Citi.

    花旗銀行的 Bryan Burgmeier。

  • Bryan Burgmeier - Analyst

    Bryan Burgmeier - Analyst

  • One for you, Devina, just kind of thinking about the cadence in the back half of the year. Last year, we talked about WM maybe striving for like a 31% peak margin in 3Q. Is that sort of back on the table for this year or should we think about margins being maybe closer to flattish year-on-year, similar to 2Q? I know the stair cycle synergies are going to continue to ramp. So just trying to think about that cadence in 3Q and 4Q.

    德維娜,我想問你一個問題,我只是在思考下半年的節奏。去年,我們談到 WM 可能力求在第三季實現 31% 的峰值利潤率。今年是否還會考慮這個問題,或者我們是否應該認為利潤率可能與去年同期持平,類似於第二季?我知道階梯循環的協同效應將會持續增強。因此,只需嘗試思考一下第三季和第四季的節奏。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, it's a great question. What I would say is that when you normalize for the alternative fuel tax credit, margin expansion was 120 basis points in the first half in the legacy business. And that exceeds what we were expecting. We've always talked about 50 basis points to 100 basis points of margin expansion in collection and disposal being the target. And to have exceeded that in the first half of the year really makes us bullish about margins for the back half of the year in the collection and disposal business. We're projecting that, that will be about 110 basis points for the full year, and some of that has to do with the landfill volume impact in 2Q that doesn't repeat in the second half.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題。我想說的是,當你將替代燃料稅收抵免標準化時,上半年傳統業務的利潤率擴張了 120 個基點。這超出了我們的預期。我們一直以將收款和處置的利潤率擴大 50 個基點至 100 個基點為目標。上半年的利潤率超過這個水準確實讓我們對下半年收集和處置業務的利潤率充滿信心。我們預計,全年這一數字將達到約 110 個基點,其中一些與第二季度的垃圾掩埋量影響有關,但下半年不會再次出現這種情況。

  • In terms of the specific margins, it's really important to focus in on the fact that the Healthcare Solutions business had 140 basis points headwind to consolidated margins in the quarter. We think that, that normalizes and starts to reduce as we ramp the synergy contributions to the business as well as just the base business performance, which we are still optimistic about.

    就具體利潤率而言,真正需要關注的是醫療保健解決方案業務在本季度對合併利潤率造成了 140 個基點的不利影響。我們認為,隨著我們加強對業務的協同貢獻以及基本業務績效的提高,這種情況會正常化並開始減少,我們對此仍然持樂觀態度。

  • So all in all, I would say we're going to have less pressure from the Healthcare Solutions business in the second half of the year than in the first half of the year by probably 10 basis points to 20 basis points. And then the collection and disposal business will be about 10 basis points less in the back half of the year than it was in the first half of the year.

    所以總的來說,我認為下半年醫療保健解決方案業務的壓力將比上半年小 10 個基點到 20 個基點。那麼下半年的收集和處置業務將比上半年減少約 10 個基點。

  • Bryan Burgmeier - Analyst

    Bryan Burgmeier - Analyst

  • Got it. Appreciate that detail. And then maybe just a follow-up on your volume expectations for the year. Are we still kind of maybe looking in the range of 50 basis points of growth year-on-year? I know 1Q was kind of weak, but then 2Q had kind of a benefit from the wildfire cleanup, but you also shed a contract and underlying construction activity probably isn't great. So just curious what your updated expectations are there.

    知道了。感謝這個細節。然後也許只是跟進一下您對今年的銷售預期。我們是否仍可能期待年增 50 個基點左右?我知道第一季表現有點弱,但第二季因野火清理而受益,但同時你也失去了一份合同,而且基礎建設活動可能也不太好。所以只是好奇您最新的期望是什麼。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah. Bryan, I think you're right. I mentioned that in my prepared remarks, there was a little bit of a headwind in Q1 and then obviously, some of the landfill volumes in Q2 and then the one franchise agreement I mentioned in my prepared remarks. So netting that all out that we said between 0.25 and 0.75, so your number of 0.5 is right in the middle of where we expect to be.

    是的。布萊恩,我認為你是對的。我在準備好的發言中提到,第一季出現了一些逆風,然後顯然,第二季出現了一些垃圾掩埋量,然後是我在準備好的發言中提到的一項特許經營協議。因此,將所有這些扣除後,我們說的是在 0.25 和 0.75 之間,所以你的數字 0.5 正好處於我們預期的中間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

  • Toni Kaplan - Analyst

    Toni Kaplan - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about volume as well, really strong performance in the quarter. I know you called out wildfires, but outside of that, maybe could you just give some incremental color on the strength in volume that you're seeing? And I know you mentioned, on the flip side, the large resi loss maybe sounded perhaps like a planned strategic exit. Just any more color on that loss as well.

    我也想問一下銷量,本季的表現確實很強勁。我知道您提到了野火,但除此之外,您能否稍微詳細地介紹一下您所看到的火災強度?我知道您提到過,另一方面,巨大的房地產損失可能聽起來像是有計劃的策略性退出。只是對那次損失還有更多的描述。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'll let John touch on the resi piece. But I will tell you that volume was encouraging for us. And when you look at June, being the last month of the quarter, June was the strongest month of the quarter from a volume standpoint, really kind of across the board June was the strongest month for the quarter. Volume for the quarter was particularly strong in the MSW way stream and C&D. And so when we talk about fire volume, that really was limited to our special waste stream, not MSW or C&D. And so when we look at MSW and C&D being strong, that's encouraging.

    我會讓約翰談談 resi 部分。但我要告訴你,這個數量對我們來說是令人鼓舞的。而當你看六月時,作為本季的最後一個月,從交易量的角度來看,六月是本季表現最強勁的月份,實際上從各方面來看,六月都是本季表現最強勁的月份。本季 MSW 處理量及 C&D 處理量尤為強勁。因此,當我們談論火災量時,這實際上僅限於我們的特殊廢物流,而不是 MSW 或 C&D。因此,當我們看到 MSW 和 C&D 表現強勁時,這是令人鼓舞的。

  • And then when you look at the collection lines of business, we did have a bit of an impact in commercial from that contract that John will talk about. But our roll-off industrial line of business has been weak on the volume front for quite some time for probably a couple of years now, and it's improved pretty significantly. It still was negative for the quarter, but quite a bit less negative for the quarter than previous quarters. So we're encouraged by that.

    然後,當您查看收集業務線時,我們確實對約翰將要談論的合約的商業產生了一些影響。但我們的滾裝工業業務線在產量方面已經疲軟了相當長一段時間,大概有幾年了,現在已經有了相當明顯的改善。本季的業績仍為負值,但與前幾季相比,負值幅度要小得多。所以我們對此感到鼓舞。

  • All of that would start to tell us that 2025, I mean, first of all, we don't see a downturn in 2025. We see that the economy seems to be reasonable at this point. I wouldn't say it's a space shuttle, but it seems to be pretty reasonable. And those waste streams that are predictive of that are performing pretty well.

    所有這些都會告訴我們,2025 年,我的意思是,首先,我們不認為 2025 年會出現經濟衰退。我們看到,目前的經濟狀況似乎是合理的。我不會說它是太空梭,但這似乎相當合理。那些可以預測這種情況的廢物流表現得相當好。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • I think, Toni, specific on the franchise loss in Florida, which was fairly significant, to put in context, it's about 185 basis points of the volume loss in residential and about 35 basis points, so you net those two out and then you think about our commentary about us still being confident in our volume projection for the full year.

    東尼,我認為,具體來說,佛羅裡達州的特許經營損失相當大,具體來說,住宅業務的銷量損失約為 185 個基點,住宅業務的銷量損失約為 35 個基點,所以你將這兩個因素扣除後,你就會想到我們關於仍然對全年銷量預測充滿信心的評論。

  • Toni Kaplan - Analyst

    Toni Kaplan - Analyst

  • And was that planned or, I guess, what was the situation there?

    這是有計劃的嗎?或者我猜,那裡的情況怎麼樣?

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • What I would tell you is this particular franchise was not performing at a level we thought acceptable. So we positioned ourselves if we were going to retain it to do it at the right margins and returns and that did not work out. So I would sort of addition by subtraction, if you will.

    我想告訴你的是,這個特許經營權的表現沒有達到我們認為可以接受的水平。因此,如果我們要保留它,我們必須以正確的利潤和回報來做這件事,但這並沒有奏效。因此,如果你願意的話,我會以減法來進行加法運算。

  • Toni Kaplan - Analyst

    Toni Kaplan - Analyst

  • Yeah. Understood. Just lastly, just hoping to get a little more color on the delta between core price and yield. It seems like widened again. Anything to call out on the yield side and how we should think about that going forward?

    是的。明白了。最後,希望能對核心價格和收益率之間的差異有更清晰的了解。好像又變寬了。在收益方面有什麼需要注意的嗎?我們未來該如何考慮這個問題?

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, when you look at core price, I mean, core price is right on track for us pretty much across the board, whether you look at collection or landfill. Core price was right on track. Yield was a little bit under the middle of that range, and we expect it to finish under the middle of the range. The range, I think, we gave is 4% to 4.2%, and we'll probably end up in that 4% range. But what that does tell you is that this is really a mix issue between core price and yield. And John has gone through a few of those kind of components. So we're pleased with how price performs, particularly as you look at the core price.

    好吧,當你查看核心價格時,我的意思是,核心價格對我們來說幾乎完全符合預期,無論你查看收集價格還是垃圾掩埋價格。核心價格正處於正軌上。收益率略低於該範圍的中間值,我們預計其最終收益率也將低於該範圍的中間值。我認為,我們給出的範圍是 4% 到 4.2%,最終我們可能會達到 4% 的範圍。但這確實告訴你,這實際上是核心價格和收益率的混合問題。約翰已經研究過其中的一些組件。因此,我們對價格表現感到滿意,特別是當您查看核心價格時。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sabahat Khan, RBC Capital Markets.

    Sabahat Khan,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Sabahat Khan - Analyst

    Sabahat Khan - Analyst

  • Great. Maybe if I could just follow up on the conversation about the residential, kind of the volume that was lost there. I think you've been on this journey to optimize our resi business for a few years now, others throughout optimization, trucks, getting the business at the right margin. Can you just maybe update us on where you are on the resi improvement journey and maybe how much might be left there.

    偉大的。也許我可以繼續討論有關住宅的話題,那裡的音量有點丟失了。我認為您幾年來一直在致力於優化我們的住宅業務,其他業務還包括卡車優化,以使業務達到正確的利潤率。您能否向我們介紹一下您在住宅改善方面的進展以及還剩下多少工作要做。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah, sure. Good question. So I think Jim commented a few quarters ago, we look at this business in a few different buckets, sort of what's performing at an acceptable level and then all the tranches done. And we've made really good progress. About 70% of that business now is up at a margin that we see that's certainly one that we're pleased with.

    是的,當然。好問題。所以我認為吉姆在幾個季度前就評論過,我們從幾個不同的角度來看待這項業務,看看哪些表現處於可接受的水平,然後看看所有部分是否完成。我們確實取得了良好的進展。目前,該業務的利潤率已達到約 70%,我們對此感到滿意。

  • So we've got a little bit of work to do, but the ratio of revenue that's really below that threshold now has improved a good bit. What I would tell you is we've talked about moderation in the residential losses, and I took a look at it in advance of the call. And you look at about 3.7% this quarter. We think by the end of the year in '25, that number will be somewhere south of [3%], it's somewhere around the 2.7% range. So we are starting to hit the peak of that, and we're going to see some moderation in the back half of the year, which aligns with my earlier commentary about the margin and return improvement we're seeing in that line of business.

    因此我們還有一些工作要做,但低於該門檻的收入比例現在已經有了很大的改善。我想告訴你的是,我們已經討論過減少住宅損失的問題,我在電話會議之前已經看過了。本季成長率約為 3.7%。我們認為到 25 年年底,這個數字將會在 [3%] 以南某個地方,大約在 2.7% 左右。因此,我們正開始達到頂峰,我們將在今年下半年看到一些緩和,這與我之前關於該業務線利潤率和回報改善的評論一致。

  • Sabahat Khan - Analyst

    Sabahat Khan - Analyst

  • Great. And then just maybe one on the EBITDA margin side with the revenue guide update and the EBITDA margin maintained, can you just give us some of the puts and takes to get the EBITDA margin still back into that midpoint of the initial range? I'm assuming mix might have helped a little bit, but maybe if you could just get all the puts and takes on the EBITDA margin.

    偉大的。然後也許只是在 EBITDA 利潤率方面,隨著收入指南更新和 EBITDA 利潤率的維持,您能否告訴我們一些讓 EBITDA 利潤率回到初始範圍中點的利弊?我認為混合可能會有一點幫助,但也許如果你能獲得 EBITDA 利潤率的所有看跌期權和收益。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. And just to clarify there, we actually had an update reduce revenue and increase margin by 40 basis points at the midpoint, and that increase of 40 basis points is about 30 basis points from collection and disposal and 10 basis points from recycling. That 10 basis points from recycling really is the commodity price impacts that we've talked about because of lower recycling commodity prices helped the margin, particularly on the brokerage side.

    當然。需要澄清的是,我們實際上已經進行了更新,減少了收入,並在中間點增加了 40 個基點,而這 40 個基點的增長大約是來自收集和處置的 30 個基點和來自回收的 10 個基點。回收帶來的 10 個基點其實就是我們所說的商品價格影響,因為回收商品價格下降有助於提高利潤率,特別是在經紀方面。

  • In terms of thinking about collection and disposal, as you mentioned, mix is a big contributor there with the landfill volume contribution exceeding our expectations slightly. But our sustainability businesses are also performing well, and that's helped. And then price/cost spread contributed about 25 basis points in the second quarter, which is a little above our initial expectations.

    在考慮收集和處置方面,正如您所提到的,混合物是一個很大的貢獻者,垃圾掩埋場的體積貢獻略微超出了我們的預期。但我們的永續發展業務也表現良好,這很有幫助。然後,價格/成本利差在第二季度貢獻了約 25 個基點,略高於我們最初的預期。

  • Sabahat Khan - Analyst

    Sabahat Khan - Analyst

  • Great. If I could just maybe squeeze in a quick one. Obviously, the industrial kind of the backdrop hasn't been good. And I think you mentioned earlier, it's been a drag for a few years. Maybe you can just look a little bit closely. Q2 is obviously a bit of a step down there just from a macro perspective. What are you seeing into Q3 and maybe your expectations for the back half of the year understanding you're reiterating the guide. But just curious to what's doing on the ground level.

    偉大的。如果我可以快速擠出一點時間就好了。顯然,工業化的背景並不好。我想您之前提到過,這幾年一直很麻煩。也許你可以稍微仔細觀察一下。從宏觀角度來看,第二季顯然有所下滑。您對第三季有何看法?您對下半年有何預期?您是否重申了指南?但我只是好奇基層發生了什麼事。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So talking about roll-off here, the industrial line of business. Yeah, I mentioned June was the strongest volume month of the quarter roll-off was still negative for the month of June, but 310 basis points improved versus the second quarter and 300 basis points improved year-to-date. So we are seeing a rebound in roll off kind of similar to what you just heard from John about resi, I think you do get to a point where your year-over-year comparisons become easier. And I think we're starting to see that, but at the same time, I think you actually are seeing a little bit of strength in the economy that we haven't had.

    這裡談論的是工業業務線的滾動。是的,我提到過,6 月份是本季交易量最強勁的月份,6 月份的成交量下滑仍然為負,但與第二季度相比提高了 310 個基點,年初至今提高了 300 個基點。因此,我們看到了滾轉的反彈,有點類似於你剛才從約翰那裡聽到的關於 resi 的消息,我認為你確實到了一個可以更容易地進行同比比較的地步。我認為我們已經開始看到這一點,但同時,我認為你實際上看到了我們以前從未擁有過的經濟實力。

  • We've talked about kind of an industrial recession over the last probably five or six quarters. And I think that's largely kind of dissipated and we're seeing it in roll-off and in C&D, by the way, our C&D was a positive 9.4%. And as I mentioned, that has nothing to do with any of that fire volume. It was just 9.4% and that's been building incrementally 4.9% last quarter, 2.6% the quarter before. So we've seen C&D start to build incrementally and that's a positive for us and positive for the economy.

    我們討論過過去五、六個季度的工業衰退。我認為這在很大程度上已經消散了,我們在滾轉和 C&D 中看到了它,順便說一下,我們的 C&D 為正 9.4%。正如我所提到的,這與火災規模無關。成長率僅 9.4%,上季為 4.9%,再上一季為 2.6%。因此,我們看到 C&D 開始逐步建設,這對我們和經濟來說都是正面的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

    諾亞·凱伊,奧本海默。

  • Noah Kaye - Analyst

    Noah Kaye - Analyst

  • So [WMHS], confident in the upper end of the $80 million to $100 million synergies captured for the year. Maybe talk a little bit about what you got in the first half of the year, kind of the exit rate as we look at 4Q in terms of the run rate on synergies there. And then kind of how you square that up with the $250 million targeted over a longer period of time?

    因此 [WMHS] 有信心今年實現的綜效上限是 8,000 萬至 1 億美元。也許您可以稍微談談您在上半年取得的成績,從第四季度的綜效運行率來看,您的退出率如何。那麼,您如何將其與長期 2.5 億美元的目標相平衡呢?

  • Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

    Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

  • Yeah. No, this is Rafa. I'll take a crack at that. So you correctly addressed it, right? We're still targeting that upper range of $100 million. That seems to be coming in kind of pro rata evenly, maybe a little bit weighed heavily to the SG&A portion in the first half of the year. That will continue to be the bigger contributor. If you remember, when we first kind of laid out our expectations for synergies, we were going to have equal parts contributions from SG&A from OpEx and from internalization. Internalization is just going to start hitting in the back half of the year. SG&A has been hitting throughout the first half of the year and then OpEx could sort of scattered throughout.

    是的。不,這是拉法。我會嘗試一下。所以你正確地解決了這個問題,對嗎?我們的目標仍然是 1 億美元這個上限。這似乎是按比例均勻分配的,可能對上半年的銷售、一般及行政費用部分產生了一些影響。這將繼續成為更大的貢獻者。如果你還記得的話,當我們第一次提出對綜效的期望時,我們將從營運支出的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 和內部化中獲得同等的貢獻。內部化將在下半年開始顯現。銷售、一般及行政費用在整個上半年一直居高不下,而營運支出則可能在整個上半年有所分散。

  • Noah Kaye - Analyst

    Noah Kaye - Analyst

  • Just a follow-up. So you said this kind of coming in pro rata meaning sort of we're getting kind of growth in the run rate synergies each quarter of the year, right? And so the implication is that you're entering '26 with a higher level of run rate synergies versus $100 million.

    只是後續行動。所以你說這種比例增加的意思是,我們每年每季的運行率綜效都會有所成長,對嗎?因此,這意味著你將以比 1 億美元更高的運行率協同效應進入 26 年。

  • Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

    Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

  • That is correct.

    沒錯。

  • Noah Kaye - Analyst

    Noah Kaye - Analyst

  • Should we just we just put that up by 50%?

    我們是否應該將其提高 50%?

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • That's a good estimate, Noah. We'll spend some more time giving you specific exit rate when we get to Q3 earnings. But what I would tell you is, as Rafa mentioned, in terms of the internalization benefits really becoming more of a second half of 2025 impact. That's one of the things that will really amplify synergy capture going into 2026 from day one.

    這是一個很好的估計,諾亞。當我們獲得第三季收益時,我們會花更多時間向您提供具體的退出率。但我想告訴你的是,正如拉法所提到的,就內部化效益而言,其影響實際上將在 2025 年下半年進一步擴大。這是從第一天起就能真正增強 2026 年綜效的事情之一。

  • Noah Kaye - Analyst

    Noah Kaye - Analyst

  • Great. I want to ask a question on the sustainability side. It's great to see really the strong increase in margins in the renewable energy line of business. Maybe you can talk a little bit about expectations for margins there moving throughout the year. And in particular, kind of where you sit with contracting for perhaps even next year on the RNG offtake?

    偉大的。我想問一個關於永續性方面的問題。很高興看到再生能源業務利潤率的強勁成長。也許您可以稍微談談全年利潤率變化的預期。特別是,您對於明年 RNG 承購合約的立場如何?

  • Tara Hemmer - Senior Vice President, Chief Sustainability Officer

    Tara Hemmer - Senior Vice President, Chief Sustainability Officer

  • No. It's Tara Hemmer. We are really pleased with the performance of our sustainability related businesses, and you can see that ramp very clearly in our Q2 results.

    不。她是塔拉·海默。我們對永續發展相關業務的表現感到非常滿意,您可以在我們的第二季業績中清楚地看到這一成長。

  • So I want to unpack your R&D question first. For 2025, we have 90% of our off-take locked up and our team has done a fantastic job of selling forward. You can see our RIN price for this quarter was about [2.55], which is above market, and that's a direct result of us selling forward some of our RINs. So our team really does know how to contract in the marketplace.

    所以我想先解答一下你的研發問題。到 2025 年,我們已經鎖定了 90% 的承購份額,我們的團隊在遠期銷售方面做得非常出色。您可以看到本季我們的 RIN 價格約為 [2.55],高於市場價格,這是我們預售部分 RIN 的直接結果。所以我們的團隊確實知道如何在市場上簽訂合約。

  • We expect margins to be similar throughout the balance of 2025 in the renewable energy business, primarily because we have 90% of our offtake locked up for this year. And then as we look forward to 2026, we still are at about 30%, which is what we had outlined in Investor Day at roughly $26 for that contracted offtake. But you have to remember, we have most of our RINs yet to sell, and we're able to tap into our fleet that we have, which is an incredible advantage for WM compared to anybody else in the marketplace.

    我們預計,2025 年再生能源業務的利潤率將保持相似,主要是因為我們今年已鎖定 90% 的承購量。然後,當我們展望 2026 年時,我們仍然處於 30% 左右,這正是我們在投資者日所概述的,合約承購價格約為 26 美元。但你必須記住,我們的大部分 RIN 尚未出售,我們能夠利用我們現有的車隊,與市場上的任何其他公司相比,這對 WM 來說都是一個不可思議的優勢。

  • On the recycling side, despite the fact that commodity prices were down substantially year-over-year, you saw us drive EBITDA growth of 17% and a lot of that has to do with our automation investments coming online. We're seeing volume growth related to those automation investments, and that clearly is us differentiating in the marketplace, where we're able to add more customers in those key geographies.

    在回收方面,儘管大宗商品價格同比大幅下降,但我們的 EBITDA 成長了 17%,這在很大程度上與我們上線的自動化投資有關。我們看到與這些自動化投資相關的銷售成長,這顯然是我們在市場上的差異化,我們能夠在這些關鍵地區增加更多的客戶。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Schumm, TD Cowen.

    吉姆·舒姆(Jim Schumm),TD Cowen。

  • James Schumm - Analyst

    James Schumm - Analyst

  • I was wondering if you would be willing to provide the revenue split between medical waste and secure information destruction. And how should we think about the longer-term EBITDA growth for WM Healthcare?

    我想知道您是否願意提供醫療廢棄物和安全資訊銷毀之間的收入分成。我們應該如何看待 WM Healthcare 的長期 EBITDA 成長?

  • Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

    Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

  • Yeah. Jim, this is Rafa. So that revenue split continues to hover right around two thirds on the Healthcare Solutions side and a third on the information destruction side. In terms of kind of revenue growth, we continue to look at that 5% to 6% as sort of the long-term aspirational growth on top line for both businesses. We think that, right now, though, we're focused on the customer relationships. We're improving the quality of the revenue as we renew agreements and we're ensuring that we prioritize the customer lifetime value right now.

    是的。吉姆,這是拉法。因此,醫療解決方案的收入分成持續徘徊在三分之二左右,資訊銷毀方面的收入分成則為三分之一左右。就營收成長而言,我們繼續將 5% 至 6% 視為兩家公司的長期理想收入成長目標。不過,我們認為現在我們的重點是客戶關係。我們在續約協議的同時,也不斷提高收入的質量,並確保現在優先考慮客戶終身價值。

  • As I mentioned during the Investor Day, it's going to take a little bit of time to acclimate the customers to a more rigorous cadence of pricing, and they've not been seen or have seen implemented even though their contracts actually permitted it. So I think the takeaway here is that we're very conscious about our customer relationships right now. The initial phase, we're really focused on kind of building out our reporting suite also to adopt sort of the new WM revenue KPIs that we can then use to plan and execute long term.

    正如我在投資者日期間提到的那樣,讓客戶適應更嚴格的定價節奏需要一點時間,儘管他們的合約實際上允許這樣做,但他們還沒有看到或看到實施。所以我認為這裡的要點是我們現在非常關注我們的客戶關係。在初始階段,我們真正專注於建立我們的報告套件,同時採用新的 WM 收入 KPI,然後我們可以使用這些 KPI 進行長期規劃和執行。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And then in terms of the EBITDA growth over the years, I think it's really important to note that we're still in a period where we're focused on a combination of optimizing the business and running the business and then realizing the tremendous value of synergies between the two organizations. And so splitting those two becomes art versus science in some ways because they really do blend into one another. So specifically giving you a growth rate of the business right now becomes murky.

    然後就多年來的 EBITDA 成長而言,我認為非常有必要指出的是,我們仍處於一個專注於優化業務和營運業務相結合的時期,然後實現兩個組織之間協同效應的巨大價值。因此,從某種程度上來說,將這兩者分開變成了藝術與科學的對立,因為它們確實相互融合。因此,現在具體給出業務的成長率變得很模糊。

  • And so what I would say is give us some time in terms of owning this business and optimizing this business to specifically give you what we think that long-term growth rate of the business is beyond 2027. I think looking to the information that we provided at Investor Day, for '25, '26 and '27 is a good benchmark for what we'll realize in the near term.

    因此我想說的是,給我們一些時間來擁有和優化這項業務,具體告訴你我們認為這項業務的長期成長率將超過 2027 年。我認為,根據我們在投資者日提供的有關 25、26 和 27 年的信息,我們可以很好地判斷我們近期將實現的目標。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Jim, I think it's also mention one thing here. When we bought this business, there were some real problems with the interconnectivity of the systems and not surprised anybody on this call, but whether it's Salesforce and SAP or whatever. But that resulted in some issues with customer onboarding with reporting and billing and routing for instance.

    吉姆,我想這裡也提到了一件事。當我們收購這家公司時,系統的互聯互通確實存在一些問題,這一點在電話會議上並不讓任何人感到驚訝,無論是 Salesforce 和 SAP 還是其他什麼公司。但這導致了客戶入職、報告、計費和路由等方面的一些問題。

  • And so what we've done is put the right people on this and dedicated the right amount of resources to -- and we're making significant progress here on this front. And that's why we're comfortable with this top line growth that Rafa mentioned for the long term, but we do have to get that ERP fixed and we feel like we're in a good place as we make progress on that with the right people.

    因此,我們所做的就是安排合適的人員並投入適當的資源——我們在這方面取得了重大進展。這就是為什麼我們對 Rafa 提到的長期收入成長感到滿意,但我們確實需要修復 ERP,我們覺得我們處於一個良好的位置,因為我們在合適的人才的幫助下在這方面取得了進展。

  • And once we do that, then I think you'll start to see us focus more on that top line and then talk more about that top line on this call. Right now, we're talking about more the bottom line for Stericycle because of the synergy capture.

    一旦我們這樣做了,我想你就會開始看到我們更加關注這一頂線,然後在這次電話會議上更多地談論這一頂線。現在,我們更多地談論的是 Stericycle 的底線,因為它具有協同效應。

  • James Schumm - Analyst

    James Schumm - Analyst

  • Right. Okay. Great. And then just as a follow-up. With the top line growth of 5% to 6%, like how do we think about the price volume mix within that?

    正確的。好的。偉大的。然後只是作為後續行動。隨著營業額成長 5% 至 6%,我們如何考慮其中的物價組合?

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Jim, long term, as I said, I mean, the aspiration is to get to a really balanced top line growth of 50% price, 50% volume. Is that what you were asking?

    是的。吉姆,從長遠來看,正如我所說,我們的願望是實現真正平衡的營收成長,即價格成長 50%,銷量成長 50%。這就是你要問的嗎?

  • James Schumm - Analyst

    James Schumm - Analyst

  • Okay. Yes, that's what I was asking.

    好的。是的,這就是我所問的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tyler Brown, Raymond James.

    泰勒布朗、雷蒙詹姆斯。

  • Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst

    Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst

  • Jim, John, so you guys mentioned lifetime customer value a couple of times in the script. And I just want to understand what you're messaging there. So are you messaging that you're being a little more aggressive on price to hold churn? Are you saying that you're being a little more aggressive on price to improve lifetime economics. Am I just completely crazy and there's just really no change? I just want to be clear on the messaging.

    吉姆、約翰,你們在腳本中多次提到了終身客戶價值。我只是想了解你在這裡想要傳達什麼訊息。那麼,您是否表示,為了控制客戶流失,您會在價格上採取更積極的措施?您是說,為了改善終身經濟狀況,您在價格上採取了更積極的措施嗎?我是不是完全瘋了,真的沒有任何改變?我只是想清楚地傳達訊息。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, I can't speak to the crazy thing. Here's what I would tell you, Tyler, about lifetime value. I mean our focus is not related to price, specifically price as kind of the end result of that. I mean, our focus is on how do we differentiate ourselves versus our competition. I mentioned it kind of in the first paragraph of my prepared remarks that using technology, for example, to differentiate ourselves really helps set these customers up to be longer lifetime customers. And then price ends up being kind of a byproduct of that. I mean, you're able to -- if you have a differentiated service offering, then you're able to charge more for it on the price line.

    好吧,我無法談論這個瘋狂的事情。泰勒,這就是我要告訴你的關於終身價值的內容。我的意思是我們的重點與價格無關,具體來說價格是最終結果。我的意思是,我們的重點是如何讓自己與競爭對手區分開來。我在準備好的發言的第一段中提到過,例如,使用科技來使我們自己與眾不同,確實有助於讓這些客戶成為更長久的終身客戶。而價格最終就成為它的副產品。我的意思是,如果你提供差異化的服務,那麼你就可以在價格上收取更高的費用。

  • Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst

    Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst

  • Okay. Crazy seems like the right outcome. Okay. And then this one, again, for Jim or Rafa, and I kind of want to go back to Noah's question, and maybe I misread it, but didn't you raise the '27 Stericycle synergies to $300 million. And it sounds like some of that might be revenue cross-sell, which I surmise will be a gift that kind of keeps giving. But it also seems that there's maybe more cost opportunity. Is that correct?

    好的。瘋狂似乎是正確的結果。好的。然後這個問題,再次問吉姆或拉法,我想回到諾亞的問題,也許我誤解了,但你不是把 27 年 Stericycle 的協同效應提高到 3 億美元了嗎?聽起來其中一些可能是收入交叉銷售,我猜測這將是一份持續給予的禮物。但似乎也存在更多的成本機會。對嗎?

  • And then two, has there been any change in the CapEx profile of that business now that it's under your control? Are there proving to be some synergies there?

    其次,現在該業務已由您控制,其資本支出狀況有沒有什麼變化?那裡是否存在一些協同效應?

  • Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

    Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

  • Yeah, Tyler, maybe -- this is Rafa. I'll take the first part and then maybe hand it to Devina for the second part of the question. So yeah, you're correct. The $50 million on the cross-sell side that's additive to $250 million in cost synergies primarily, and that is across -- through the three-year horizon that we I did say to our Investor Day that those $50 million are heavily weighted towards year two and three of the horizon.

    是的,泰勒,也許——這是拉法。我將回答第一部分,然後也許將問題的第二部分交給 Devina。是的,你是對的。交叉銷售方面的 5000 萬美元主要增加到 2.5 億美元的成本協同效應,而且這是跨越三年的——我在投資者日上說過,這 5000 萬美元主要集中在第二年和第三年。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • On the capital side, I do think, Tyler, it's a good thought in terms of there being optimization opportunities between the two businesses for us to optimize our capital. But I think it's important to point out that pre-acquisition, the business funded its capital largely through the P&L and that at least its fleet.

    在資本方面,泰勒,我確實認為,從兩家企業之間存在優化機會以優化我們的資本的角度來看,這是一個很好的想法。但我認為有必要指出的是,在收購之前,該企業主要透過損益表為其資本提供資金,至少是其船隊。

  • And in WM, we've got the best cost of capital in the industry, and we are going to ensure that we acquire the fleet and that we have a really strong lifetime utilization approach to optimizing the over the long term. But those are less complex assets and therefore, less expensive, and they also have a different disposal cost to the business, which we all know the landfill capital intensity that is collection and disposal. So what I would say is that long term, we expect their capital probably to be in the 8.5% range versus our 10%-ish plus range. And so that will be a return on invested capital benefit to the business that we anticipate over the long term.

    在 WM,我們擁有業內最佳的資本成本,我們將確保獲得船隊,並且我們擁有真正強大的終身利用方法來進行長期優化。但這些資產不太複雜,因此成本也較低,而且它們對企業的處置成本也不同,我們都知道垃圾掩埋場的資本強度是收集和處置。所以我想說的是,從長期來看,我們預計他們的資本可能在 8.5% 的範圍內,而我們的資本在 10% 左右。因此,我們預期從長遠來看,這將是企業投資資本的回報效益。

  • Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

    Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

  • Yeah. And Tyler, maybe one last thing because I think it speaks to the symbiosis between the capital deployment of the business and the synergies is when we own that fleet, we're going to be able to maintain and repair the fleet much more efficiently and effectively. And we do anticipate synergies there on maintenance and repair.

    是的。泰勒,也許最後還有一件事,因為我認為這說明了業務資本部署和協同效應之間的共生關係,當我們擁有車隊時,我們將能夠更有效率、更有效地維護和修理車隊。我們確實預計在維護和修理方面會產生協同效應。

  • Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst

    Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst

  • Okay. So 8.5% longer term, maybe it's actually hotter first and then cools off, we'll see about that. Okay. That's helpful.

    好的。因此,從長期來看,8.5% 的情況可能實際上是先變熱,然後冷卻下來,我們拭目以待。好的。這很有幫助。

  • And then my last one here. So Devina, I don't want to rehash the whole Analyst Day, but I do want to talk about the long-term free cash guidance because I want to just kind of make sure that I have it. So I know that, that free cash guide did not include bonus depreciation but did that guidance also assume that the statutory tax rate would go back up. I'm just really trying to understand how tax policy has changed that number basically.

    這是我的最後一個。所以 Devina,我不想重複整個分析師日,但我確實想談談長期免費現金指導,因為我只是想確保我擁有它。所以我知道,免費現金指南不包括獎金折舊,但指南是否也假設法定稅率會回升。我只是真的想了解稅收政策是如何改變這個數字的。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, it's a great question, Tyler. What I would tell you is that we were retaining the statutory rate in our guide, but we were not assuming the upside of bonus depreciation. And the ballpark of the upside of bonus depreciation in 2027 is $200 million. So we have about $120 million in 2025 and that ramps to $200 million by 2027.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題,泰勒。我想告訴你的是,我們在指南中保留了法定利率,但我們沒有假設獎金折舊的好處。2027 年獎金折舊的潛在收益約為 2 億美元。因此,到 2025 年,我們的資金將達到約 1.2 億美元,到 2027 年,這一數字將增加至 2 億美元。

  • Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst

    Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst

  • So the delta is the $200 million.

    所以差額是 2 億美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Trevor Romeo, William Blair.

    特雷弗羅密歐、威廉布萊爾。

  • Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst

    Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst

  • I just wanted to go back to, I guess, the landfill volume strength even outside of the wildfire cleanup. Specifically, I wanted to ask about, I guess, internalization, just because it was up, I think, another 120 basis points sequentially. Just trying to dig in a bit more. I don't know if you had temporary volume benefits that boosted that, but it doesn't sound like you've done much on the medical waste side yet. So I guess what would you say about the drivers of that continuing to increase now nicely above 70? And then how much can you continue to increase it moving forward?

    我只是想回顧一下,即使在野火清理之外,垃圾掩埋場的容量強度。具體來說,我想問內部化問題,因為我認為它連續上漲了 120 個基點。只是想進一步挖掘一下。我不知道您是否有暫時的數量優勢來推動這一點,但聽起來您在醫療廢物方面還沒有做太多工作。那麼,我想您對於導致這一數字繼續大幅上升至 70 以上的驅動因素有何看法?那麼,未來你還能繼續增加多少呢?

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • I think it's a great observation, Trevor. I think as Rafa mentioned, the internalization benefits are just starting to hit now. So you're not really seeing any meaningful amount in our landfill volumes. I think Jim made the comment in his prepared remarks, I mean, the MSW volume at 4.5% for the quarter and 4.1% year-to-date does not include any of the event work, right? And I think that's worth highlighting.

    我認為這是一個很棒的觀察,特雷弗。我認為正如拉法所提到的那樣,內部化的好處現在才剛開始顯現。因此,你實際上並沒有看到我們的垃圾掩埋量有任何有意義的數量。我認為吉姆在他的準備好的發言中發表了評論,我的意思是,本季度的 MSW 量為 4.5%,年初至今的 MSW 量為 4.1%,不包括任何活動工作,對嗎?我認為這一點值得強調。

  • And the internalization rate of 71 and change, which historically we were talking about that before the call was like 65%, 66%. I think that really speaks to the value of the network that we've all been talking about for the last handful of years, quarter in and quarter out because there is a level of complexity of movement this material that continues to increase. And I think the investments I mentioned in infrastructure in my prepared remarks, part of that is related to exactly what you picked up on.

    內部化率為 71%,而我們在通話之前討論過的歷史數據是 65% 或 66%。我認為這確實說明了我們過去幾年來一直在談論的網路的價值,因為這種材料的運動的複雜程度正在增加。我認為我在準備好的演講中提到的基礎設施投資部分與您所了解的內容有關。

  • So that's -- I think it's great momentum. I think we're going to continue to build on it. And as Jim used the word differentiated, we see our post-collection network, including our stations and our recycling assets, etc, is all being something that's going to differentiate us over the long term.

    所以——我認為這是一個巨大的勢頭。我認為我們將繼續在此基礎上繼續努力。正如吉姆所使用的「差異化」一詞,我們看到我們的後收集網絡,包括我們的站點和回收資產等,都是讓我們在長期內與眾不同的東西。

  • Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst

    Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst

  • That's really helpful. And then maybe a follow-up for Rafa, trying to keep you busy here. Just one from a human capital perspective on the Healthcare Solutions business, how much voluntary workforce turnover have you seen a Healthcare Solutions since the acquisition? And is that kind of more or less in line with what you would have expected at this point?

    這真的很有幫助。然後也許是對拉法的後續報道,試圖讓你在這裡忙碌起來。僅從醫療保健解決方案業務的人力資本角度來看,自收購以來,醫療保健解決方案的自願勞動力流動率是多少?這是否與您目前的預期大致相符?

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, if you're talking about sort of the hourly workforce, actually, we've seen an improvement in turnover since the acquisition. I think that has a lot to do with sort of the human-centered approach to leadership that we're driving down throughout the organization. Obviously, sort of in the managerial corporate support ranks and all that, that's somewhat impacted by the attainment of some of our SG&A targets, etc.

    嗯,如果你談論的是計時工,實際上,自收購以來我們已經看到營業額有所改善。我認為這與我們在整個組織中所推行的以人為本的領導方式有很大關係。顯然,在管理公司支援等級和所有這些層級中,這在某種程度上受到我們實現部分銷售、一般和行政費用目標等的影響。

  • But overall, it's a good story. I think during Investor Day, I talked about the continued receptivity to the qualitative approach and the accountability we're driving in the business. A lot of them are really eager for that integration into the areas that I spoke about as well where we're going to then have a culture of ownership of the business much more at the site level.

    但總的來說,這是一個好故事。我想在投資者日期間,我談到了對定性方法的持續接受以及我們在業務中推行的責任制。他們中的許多人都非常渴望融入我所談到的領域,然後我們將在站點層面上更多地建立一種企業所有權文化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

    加拿大豐業銀行的 Konark Gupta。

  • Konark Gupta - Analyst

    Konark Gupta - Analyst

  • I just wanted to follow up on the volume side of things. The residential contract loss, you talked about. I mean, I'm just wondering if there is a domino effect you would expect from these things in that market considering, obviously, the customer could be price sensitive perhaps. So do you expect any more follow-ons with this?

    我只是想跟進一下數量方面的情況。您談到了住宅合約損失。我的意思是,我只是想知道,考慮到客戶顯然可能對價格敏感,你是否認為這些東西在那個市場會產生骨牌效應。那麼,您期待後續事件嗎?

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Actually, I mentioned earlier what I've looked at, we're going to lap a handful of contracts in July and then later of the year in October, which is one of the reasons why I think we feel confident about the volume loss to moderate by the end of the year Q4, the exit rate will be sub 3%.

    實際上,我之前提到過,我們將在 7 月份和 10 月份晚些時候簽訂一些合同,這也是我認為我們對第四季度末交易量損失將會緩和,退出率將低於 3% 有信心的原因之一。

  • And the other comment I mentioned is worth repeating is when you look at the quality of the business we have, we've got about 70% of that revenue addressed at at an EBITDA margin that's acceptable today. So we've certainly shrunk the opportunity here while we're improving the overall business. And I think over the next hand four quarters, as I mentioned, you're going to see moderation in the volume losses.

    我提到的另一點值得重複的是,當你看看我們業務的品質時,你會發現我們的收入中約有 70% 是透過目前可以接受的 EBITDA 利潤率實現的。因此,我們在改善整體業務的同時,肯定也減少了這裡的機會。我認為,正如我所提到的,在接下來的四個季度裡,你會看到交易量損失有所緩和。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So that's a domino effect necessarily. No, I don't see that as -- I think these are by standalone contracts that's -- and this one, as John said earlier, this is one that we bid it at a certain price. It was not a positive for us. And so when it came out for RFP, we bid it at a certain price. And to the extent that it doesn't hit that price and we lose the contract, okay, as you said, John, it's kind of addition by subtraction.

    所以這必然會產生骨牌效應。不,我不這麼認為——我認為這些都是獨立的合約——正如約翰之前所說,這是我們以一定價格投標的合約。這對我們來說不是一件好事。因此,當它發布 RFP 時,我們以一定的價格進行投標。如果沒有達到這個價格,我們就會失去合同,好吧,正如你所說,約翰,這是一種減法運算。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • We really don't mention these individually, except for this one was fairly significant, and it really was what drove the difference between the historic revenue -- excuse me, volume loss in residential and where we were. But again, we'll see that return to normal and improve through the balance of the year.

    我們實際上並沒有單獨提及這些,但這一點相當重要,而且它確實是導致歷史收入(對不起,是住宅銷售損失)和我們所在位置之間的差異的原因。但同樣,我們會看到情況在今年餘下時間裡恢復正常並得到改善。

  • Konark Gupta - Analyst

    Konark Gupta - Analyst

  • I appreciate the color on that. And then just a follow-up on the tariff cycle. The SG&A seems like it's tracked down further to about like 20% and change. How do you see the bridge to the full $250 million synergy you expect over the next three years or two years, maybe now from 20% to the guidance you had.

    我很欣賞它的色彩。然後只是對關稅週期的後續關注。銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 似乎進一步下降至約 20% 左右並有所變化。您如何看待未來三年或兩年內實現預計的 2.5 億美元協同效應,也許現在從 20% 到您給予的指導。

  • Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

    Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

  • Yeah. So again, Rafa here, Konark. So you're right. We hit, I think 20.9% is the number that on an adjusted basis for the quarter. We're driving that number to continue to lower rate and finish hopefully below 20% at the end of this year. The aspiration is to be at 17% at the end of the three-year horizon. And if you think about that, just to kind of give you some perspective, the average in '23 and '24 for the legacy business was approaching 25%.

    是的。再一次,我是拉法,科納克。所以你是對的。我認為,我們達到了 20.9% 這個數字,這是本季調整後的數字。我們正在推動這一數字繼續降低,並希望在今年年底達到 20% 以下。我們的目標是在三年期末達到 17%。如果你考慮一下,只是為了給你一些視角,那麼 23 年和 24 年傳統業務的平均值接近 25%。

  • So what we're talking about here is a nearly 800 basis points reduction over that three-year horizon. But we continue to think and be positive about the aspiration long term beyond that three years to lower it closer to the legacy business, that 10% or lower. And that's because then once we get past the ERP issues, we're going to be able to leverage some of the platforms and self-service capabilities that we've leveraged for the WM business as a whole. And so a lot more runway there.

    所以我們在這裡討論的是三年內降息近 800 個基點。但我們繼續思考,並對於三年後的長期目標持積極態度,將這一比例降低至更接近傳統業務的水平,即 10% 或更低。這是因為,一旦我們解決了 ERP 問題,我們將能夠利用我們為整個 WM 業務所利用的一些平台和自助服務功能。因此那裡有更多的跑道。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tobey Sommer, Truist.

    托比·索默 (Tobey Sommer),Truist。

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

    Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask sort of a follow-up on your Investor Day themes. One of them was related to the landfill advantage because of the useful life. When do you think that starts to manifest in -- how do you see the initial years impacting the company in terms of pricing and other financial impacts?

    我想就您的投資者日主題進行一些後續詢問。其中之一與垃圾掩埋場因其使用壽命而具有的優勢有關。您認為這種影響何時開始顯現——您認為最初幾年對公司在定價和其他財務方面有何影響?

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, I think it's kind of manifesting itself already, which was part of my point earlier. And I think that only continues. The chart we showed does show that as you get into '25 and beyond, that landfill capacity for the industry really does start to get constrained. We're in a better position, both geographically and also length of life than the rest of the industry. So that's why we feel that, that is a separator for us. But I do think you're starting to see that already.

    嗯,我認為它已經表現出來了,這也是我之前的觀點的一部分。我認為這種情況只會持續下去。我們展示的圖表確實表明,隨著進入 25 年及以後,該行業的垃圾掩埋容量確實開始受到限制。無論是從地理位置或壽命長度來看,我們都比業內其他公司處於更有利的地位。所以這就是為什麼我們會覺得,這對我們來說是一個分隔符號。但我確實認為你已經開始看到這一點了。

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

    Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • And is there a year in which you think that, that sort of impact becomes most acute or most visible externally?

    您認為哪一年這種影響最嚴重或最明顯?

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think the -- well, sorry, John, I forgot what the one year was on the slide that showed the biggest reduction in capacity, it might have been 2030 or 2032, something like that. So that may be -- if I were to point to a year, and I'm not sure that it's easy to point to a year, but certainly, the biggest year on the chart was kind of early 2030s.

    我認為——嗯,抱歉,約翰,我忘了幻燈片上顯示容量減少最多的年份是哪一年,可能是 2030 年或 2032 年,諸如此類。所以這可能是這樣——如果我要指出某一年,我不確定指出某一年是否容易,但可以肯定的是,圖表上最大的年份是 2030 年代初。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • I think what I would point to is I mentioned the internalization rate kind of ticking up the last couple of years. There's a handful of markets on the West Coast in Florida, in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast where we're actually moving volumes differently than we did a couple of years ago, and it's because of the value of our network in our -- in a lot of cases, our intermodal capabilities. And to Jim's point, while the peak might be 2033, we're investing in it now because it doesn't happen overnight. It's an incremental shift, and that's why I think you're seeing us benefit on the volume and on the price side.

    我想指出的是,我提到內部化率在過去幾年有所上升。在佛羅裡達西海岸、大西洋中部和東北部的一些市場,我們的運輸量實際上與幾年前有所不同,這是因為我們的網路價值——在許多情況下,是我們的聯運能力。正如吉姆所說,雖然高峰可能是在 2033 年,但我們現在就進行投資,因為它不會在一夜之間發生。這是一個漸進的轉變,這就是為什麼我認為你會看到我們在數量和價格方面受益。

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

    Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • Understood. And then last question for me. On the WHS side, what's your current thinking about internalizing the fleet and other incremental things you can do for the business that aren't part of your synergy target presently?

    明白了。這是我的最後一個問題。在 WHS 方面,您目前對內部化車隊以及可以為業務做的其他增量事情有什麼想法,而這些事情目前還不屬於您的協同目標?

  • Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

    Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

  • Well, Devina kind of referenced kind of the internalization of the fleet, right? I mean there's really no benefit in accelerating the payment of those leases. We would have had to basically pay full price anyway. So what we've done is kind of create a similar fleet strategy to what we have at WM legacy business, which is to smooth out the capital kind of intensity of that year-over-year. And then in the meantime, we're laying down the groundwork to be able to actually support the maintenance and repair at the local level of that fleet. That's going to start showing itself in the OpEx synergies sometimes towards the beginning of 2026.

    嗯,德維娜提到了艦隊的內部化,對嗎?我的意思是,加速支付這些租金實際上沒有任何好處。無論如何,我們基本上都必須支付全額。因此,我們所做的就是創造一種與 WM 傳統業務類似的車隊策略,即平滑逐年增加的資本強度。同時,我們正在奠定基礎,以便能夠真正支援該船隊的本地維護和維修。這將在 2026 年初開始在 OpEx 協同效應中顯現出來。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Maybe the other place, Rafa, and I don't know how much we have built in on this front. But if you think about real estate, I mean all of these trucks sit on property. And so as I look at Houston, for example, we're opening a new hauling company, a large facility that's replacing an old one here in town. And so that's got -- that has a fair amount of open space to it. It's possible, I don't know that we've baked this in necessarily, but it's possible that you can relocate fleet from and save on real estate cost. That's not something I think we've spent a lot of time and effort on quantifying, but I do think there's a second or third benefit that we could see.

    也許是另一個地方,拉法,我不知道我們在這方面取得了多少成就。但如果你考慮房地產,我的意思是所有這些卡車都停在房地產上。以休士頓為例,我們正在開設一家新的運輸公司,這是一家大型設施,將取代城裡的舊設施。所以那裡有——那裡有相當大的開放空間。這是有可能的,我不知道我們是否已經考慮到了這一點,但有可能你可以重新安置車隊並節省房地產成本。我認為我們並沒有花費大量的時間和精力來量化這一點,但我確實認為我們可以看到第二或第三個好處。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah, that's fair, Jim. And I think maybe just overarchingly, you can think about us beginning to put the WM way across every facility that we do consolidate. And as we bring fleet forward, we're going to have that WMA approach also in maintenance and repairs.

    是的,這很公平,吉姆。我認為,也許從總體上看,您可以考慮開始將 WM 方式應用於我們整合的每個設施。隨著我們船隊的不斷前進,我們也將在維護和維修方面採用 WMA 的方法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

    史蒂芬妮摩爾,傑富瑞集團。

  • Stephanie Moore - Analyst

    Stephanie Moore - Analyst

  • Maybe just a follow-up to a question that was asked earlier, but as you think about the -- maybe the puts and takes to normal seasonality in terms of the margin cadence in the second half of the year, I think there's couple of things that we need to work through in terms of just ramping of synergies, the volume environment and the like. So this is the best that you can, maybe, Devina, just talk through how you kind of expect the second half cadence to look in light of normal seasonality and the events this year?

    也許只是對之前提出的一個問題的跟進,但是當你考慮到下半年利潤節奏方面正常的季節性因素時,我認為我們需要在協同效應、產量環境等方面解決一些問題。所以,德維娜,您能給最好的答案嗎?也許,根據正常的季節性和今年發生的事件,您能談談對下半年節奏的預期嗎?

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. So the way that I think you can think about is usually, we have 70 basis points to 100 basis points benefit going from first half into second half. And I expect that to be slightly muted in the collection and disposal business because of landfill volumes that we've discussed.

    當然。因此,我認為您通常可以這樣想:從上半年到下半年,我們的利潤將有 70 個基點到 100 個基點。而且我預計,由於我們討論過的垃圾掩埋量,收集和處置業務的情況會略有減弱。

  • But then it should increase, as I mentioned earlier, on the WM Healthcare Solutions side, the drag associated with the acquisition of the business on the consolidated results should lessen in the first half of the year, it's been about 145 basis points, and we think that, that could improve to, call it, 125 basis points, 135 basis points in the second half of the year. And then the recycling business, which I mentioned, you should have 10 basis points help in the second half of the year from lower commodity prices. So I think that will help you understand first half versus second half.

    但隨後它應該會增加,正如我之前提到的,在 WM Healthcare Solutions 方面,收購業務對合併業績的拖累應該會在上半年減少,目前約為 145 個基點,我們認為,下半年可能會改善到 125 個基點、135 個基點。然後,我提到的回收業務,由於商品價格下跌,下半年應該會獲得 10 個基點的幫助。所以我認為這將有助於你理解上半場和下半場的差異。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, and then Devina, also the eight plants, the renewable energy plants, and those are definitely margin accretive and those -- I mean, we knew going in that these plants that we're building are pretty much back-end loaded. So we still have eight plants. I think one of those might bleed in the first half, but it doesn't affect the EBITDA really. But eight plants that tears opening at the end of the year between third quarter and fourth quarter. And those will have more so in '26 but have a margin-accretive impact.

    好吧,然後是 Devina,還有八家工廠,可再生能源工廠,這些肯定可以增加利潤,而且 - 我的意思是,我們知道我們正在建造的這些工廠幾乎都是後端負載的。所以我們仍然有八家工廠。我認為其中一個可能會在上半年出現虧損,但這實際上並不會影響 EBITDA。但今年第三季至第四季之間將有八家工廠開業。這些因素在 26 年將發揮更大的作用,但會產生利潤成長的影響。

  • Stephanie Moore - Analyst

    Stephanie Moore - Analyst

  • Got it. No, that's helpful. And then just lastly, again, clarification. If you could talk a little bit about the M&A environment in particular anything that you can speak to in terms of pipeline? And then just give us an update of what's embedded in the updated full year guidance based on M&A year-to-date.

    知道了。不,這很有幫助。最後,再次澄清一下。您能否特別談談併購環境,以及在通路方面您能談談什麼?然後請您根據年初至今的併購情況向我們介紹一下更新後的全年指引中的內容。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah, Stephanie, I'll address the pipeline. Jim, we talked in his prepared remarks, we've got about $500 million in for this year. We did a fairly significant sized regional acquisition in DC. Last quarter, we've done some other normal tuck-in acquisitions. And we have one fairly sizable one that we're hopeful we're going to get closed probably between Q3 in Q4. But as usual, we remain disciplined.

    是的,史蒂芬妮,我會解決管道問題。吉姆,我們在他準備好的演講稿中提到,我們今年的資金約為 5 億美元。我們在華盛頓特區進行了一項相當大的區域性收購。上個季度,我們也進行了一些其他常規的補充性收購。我們有一個相當大的項目,我們希望能夠在第三季或第四季之間完成。但和往常一樣,我們仍然保持紀律。

  • But to your question on pipeline, the pipeline remains strong. We've talked about last year being probably one of our strongest years, and a lot of that is carried over into this year. So we feel good about where we're at at this point in the year.

    但對於您關於管道的問題,管道仍然強勁。我們說過,去年可能是我們表現最強勁的一年,而這股動能在今年也會延續下去。因此,我們對今年目前的狀況感到滿意。

  • And then in terms of what's embedded, Devina, I'll let you maybe on the revenue.

    然後就嵌入式而言,德維娜,我可能會告訴你收入。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I don't have that number specifically. So -- and Heather will get back to you.

    我沒有這個具體數字。那麼——希瑟會回覆你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的 Faiza Alwy。

  • Faiza Alwy - Analyst

    Faiza Alwy - Analyst

  • I wanted to follow up on the collection and disposal margins. I think you mentioned 110 basis points improvement year-over-year in those margins. So I want to make sure I'm getting that right. Does that sort of suggest stronger margin growth in the back half than I would have thought considering you're saying that landfill, this was sort of the peak quarter for landfill volumes. So could you talk about some of the -- maybe if there's other drivers around better margin performance in the collection and disposal business.

    我想追蹤收集和處置利潤。我認為您提到了利潤率同比提高了 110 個基點。所以我想確保我做對了。考慮到您所說的垃圾掩埋場,這是否意味著下半年的利潤成長比我想像的要強勁,這是垃圾掩埋量的高峰期。那麼,您能否談談其中的一些——也許還有其他因素可以推動收集和處置業務的利潤率表現更好。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. So the collection and disposal business margin improvement was 110 basis points in the quarter and about 40 basis points of that is efficiency and price cost spread and the remaining portion really is mix and landfill volumes in particular, and that's before the impact of the alternative fuel tax credit. So the alternative fuel tax credit was a headwind to that of 30 basis points. So you put all of that together and you're at 80 basis points margin expansion for collection and disposal.

    當然。因此,本季收集和處置業務利潤率提高了 110 個基點,其中約 40 個基點是效率和價格成本差額,其餘部分實際上是混合和垃圾掩埋量,這是在替代燃料稅收抵免的影響之前。因此,替代燃料稅收抵免對 30 個基點的稅收抵免構成了阻力。所以,把所有這些加在一起,你的收集和處置的利潤率就擴大了 80 個基點。

  • I actually expect that to moderate in the second half because of the mix and landfill volume impact that I just mentioned, being about 70 basis points in Q2. So you'll have some moderation of that into the second half. However, going from first half to second half, you normally have 70 basis points to 100 basis points improvement in collection and disposal volume just because of seasonality. So hopefully, that helps clarify what the bits and pieces are, but we're really happy because all of this pulled together to say that the traditional solid waste business is going to have 30 basis points better margin in 2025 than we expected coming into the year.

    實際上,我預計下半年這一比例會有所緩和,因為我剛才提到的混合和垃圾掩埋量的影響,第二季度約為 70 個基點。所以在下半場你會對此有所緩和。然而,從上半年到下半年,由於季節性因素,收集和處理量通常會提高 70 個基點到 100 個基點。所以希望這有助於澄清細節,但我們真的很高興,因為所有這些結合起來表明,到 2025 年,傳統固體廢物業務的利潤率將比我們今年預期的高出 30 個基點。

  • Faiza Alwy - Analyst

    Faiza Alwy - Analyst

  • Understood. And then when you initially gave the guide for '25, you've given us a lot of color around your expectations for EBITDA for the various pieces of the business. So I'm curious with the update today and just given the change in commodity prices, if you could perhaps update us on what you're expecting from EBITDA contribution from Stericycle specifically this year and maybe the sustainability projects? I think you said $270 million to $290 million previously. So just any update on the other pieces would be really helpful.

    明白了。然後,當您最初給出 25 年的指南時,您已經為我們對各個業務部分的 EBITDA 預期給出了許多說明。所以我對今天的更新感到好奇,考慮到商品價格的變化,您是否可以告訴我們您對 Stericycle 今年的 EBITDA 貢獻以及永續發展項目的預期?我想您之前說的是 2.7 億到 2.9 億美元。因此,對其他部分的任何更新都會非常有幫助。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. So what I would tell you is that with us confirming $7.55 billion in EBITDA for the total company for the year, really the only take that we've had in the entire mix has been from the recycling part of our business. And there's about a $15 million decrease expected in the EBITDA associated with commodity prices and another $10 million associated with some cost increases that we've had in that part of our business. And that's really the only part of the business where there was any sort of decrease in the expectations and the increase is coming from the strength of collection and disposal and a little bit of benefit from higher-than-expected synergy realization.

    當然。因此,我想告訴你們的是,我們確認今年公司整體的 EBITDA 為 75.5 億美元,實際上我們整個業務組合中唯一的收入來自我們業務的回收部分。預計與商品價格相關的 EBITDA 將減少約 1500 萬美元,與我們該部分業務的一些成本增加相關的 EBITDA 將減少 1000 萬美元。這實際上是業務中唯一預期有所下降的部分,而成長則來自於收集和處置的力度,以及高於預期的協同效應實現帶來的一點好處。

  • So going from the midpoint of $90 million to the high end of that of $100 million indicates incremental value that we're retaining. Some of that shows up in the healthcare solutions business, but some of it also shows up in collection and disposal. So I would say all of the pieces that come to the total are really in hand with the exception of the recycling business, which I mentioned at $25 million.

    因此,從 9000 萬美元的中點到 1 億美元的高端表明了我們保留的增量價值。其中一些體現在醫療保健解決方案業務中,但也有一些體現在收集和處置中。因此我想說,除了我提到的回收業務(價值 2500 萬美元)之外,所有其他部分的總價值都在掌控之中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And I'm showing no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Jim Fish, CEO, for any closing remarks.

    我現在沒有其他問題了。現在我將把電話轉回給執行長吉姆·菲什先生,請他做最後發言。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. Well, thank you so much for your questions this morning. Very good questions, and we certainly look forward to next quarter and talking to you again after Q3.

    好的。好吧,非常感謝您今天早上的提問。非常好的問題,我們當然期待下個季度並在第三季之後再次與您交談。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

    今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,您現在可以斷開連接。