美國廢棄物管理公司 (WM) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q3 營運 EBITDA 成長超過 15%,自由現金流成長近 33%,創歷史新高;核心事業群(legacy business)EBITDA margin 達 32%,首次穩定突破 30% 目標
    • 全年營收預計落在先前指引區間低端,主因回收商品價格疲弱及 Healthcare Solutions 成長較預期緩慢;全年 EBITDA margin 指引上修至 29.6%-30.2%
    • 市場反應未明確揭露,但管理層強調 2026 年自由現金流有望達 38 億美元,展望樂觀
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 核心收運與處理業務推動營運成長,MSW(一般垃圾)與特殊廢棄物量分別年增 5% 與 5.5%
      • Healthcare Solutions 併購整合順利,跨售(cross-selling)帶動大型醫院客戶年花費增加超過 500 萬美元,已完成 7,000 多家中小型客戶交叉銷售
      • 回收事業雖商品價格下跌 35%,但自動化投資帶動 EBITDA 年增 18%,顯示成本結構優化成效
      • 可再生能源(RNG)產能倍增,2026 年已預售 45% 產量,RIN 價格展望穩健
    • 風險:
      • Healthcare Solutions 收入成長低於預期,主因 ERP 整合、客戶給予信用與延後調漲,短期內營收壓力仍在
      • 回收商品價格持續低迷,OCC(紙類)與塑膠價格處於谷底,短期內難以反彈
      • 特殊廢棄物掩埋場擴建失敗,導致資產減損,未來相關業務成長受限
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 總公司營運 EBITDA margin:Q3 達 30.6%,創歷史新高
    • 核心事業群(legacy business)EBITDA margin:32%,年增 120bps
    • 收運與處理事業 EBITDA margin:38.4%,年增 100bps
    • MSW(一般垃圾)處理量:年增 5%
    • 特殊廢棄物處理量:年增 5.5%
    • 工業廢棄物處理量:年增 1.2%,三年來首度轉正
    • 回收事業 EBITDA:年增 18%,雖商品價格年減 35%
    • Healthcare Solutions EBITDA margin:17.5%,併購後持續改善
    • 員工流動率(司機與技師):降至 16.8%,創歷史新低
    • 車隊維修成本:年減 60bps
    • 總營運費用占營收比:連續兩季低於 60%
  4. 財務預測
    • 2025 全年營收預計落在先前指引區間低端
    • 2025 全年 EBITDA margin 指引上修至 29.6%-30.2%
    • 2025 年迄今資本支出(CapEx)23.4 億美元,全年預計符合原規劃
    • 2026 年自由現金流預期達 38 億美元
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 今年野火清理對營收與 EBITDA 貢獻?Q3 是否有影響?
      A: 野火相關營收主要集中在 Q1、Q2,全年約 1.15 億美元,Q3 幾乎無影響。Q3 固廢 EBITDA 成長 1.45 億美元,未受野火影響。
    • Q: 2026 年自由現金流成長來源?CapEx 是否大幅下降?
      A: 成長來自永續投資進入收割期、核心業務穩健、車隊資本支出回歸常態、Healthcare Solutions 整合成本下降與協同效益持續釋放。
    • Q: Healthcare Solutions 價格調漲延後、客戶流失與長期成長展望?
      A: 延後調漲與給予信用是主動以客戶為中心的策略,非被動因客戶反彈。ERP 整合進入穩定期,預計 2026 年恢復正常成長,長期 5-6% 收入成長展望不變。
    • Q: 回收商品價格下跌 35%,回收事業 EBITDA 仍成長,未來展望?
      A: 自動化投資大幅降低成本,EBITDA margin 明顯提升。預期 2026 年商品價格有望回升,目前籃子價格約 65-68 美元/噸。
    • Q: M&A 策略與 2026 年規劃?
      A: 2025 年傳統固廢併購約 4.5-5 億美元,2026 年預計回歸 1-2 億美元常態水準,仍以核心業務為主,短期內不考慮跨界大型併購。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the WM third-quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's conference may be recorded.

    您好,感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加WM第三季財報電話會議。(操作員說明)請注意,今天的會議可能會被錄音。

  • I will now hand the conference over to your speaker host, Ed Egl, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把會議交給各位演講嘉賓,投資者關係副總裁艾德‧埃格爾。請繼續。

  • Ed Egl - IR Contact Officer

    Ed Egl - IR Contact Officer

  • Thank you, Lydia. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. With me this morning are Jim Fish, Chief Executive Officer; John Morris, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Devina Rankin, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. You will hear prepared comments from each of them today. Jim will cover high-level financials and provide a strategic update, John will cover an operating overview, and Devina will cover the details of the financials.

    謝謝你,莉迪亞。各位早安,感謝各位參加我們2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上和我在一起的有:執行長吉姆·菲什;總裁兼營運長約翰·莫里斯;以及執行副總裁兼財務長德維納·蘭金。今天你們將聽到他們每個人事先準備好的發言。Jim 將介紹高層財務狀況並提供策略更新,John 將介紹營運概況,Devina 將介紹財務細節。

  • Before we get started, please note that we have filed a Form 8-K that includes the earnings press release and is available on our website at www.wm.com. The Form 8-K, the press release and the schedules of the press release include important information. During the call, you will hear forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, projections, or opinions about future periods.

    在開始之前,請注意,我們已經提交了一份包含收益新聞稿的8-K表格,可在我們的網站www.wm.com上查閱。 8-K表格、新聞稿以及新聞稿的附表包含重要資訊。在電話會議期間,您將聽到一些前瞻性陳述,這些陳述是基於對未來時期的當前預期、預測或意見。

  • All forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Some of these risks and uncertainties are discussed in today's press release and in our filings with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Qs. John will discuss our results in the areas of yield and volume, which unless stated otherwise, are more specifically references to internal revenue growth, or IRG, from yield or volume.

    所有前瞻性陳述均存在風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。其中一些風險和不確定性已在今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了討論,包括我們最新的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格。John 將討論我們在收益率和銷售方面的成果,除非另有說明,否則這些成果更具體地指的是收益率或銷售量帶來的內部收入成長(IRG)。

  • During the call, Jim, John, and Devina will discuss operating EBITDA, which is income from operations before depreciation and amortization. References to WM legacy business are total WM results, excluding the WM Healthcare Solutions segment. Any comparisons, unless otherwise stated, will be with the prior-year period.

    在電話會議中,Jim、John 和 Devina 將討論營運 EBITDA,即折舊和攤銷前的營運收入。文中提及的 WM 傳統業務是指 WM 的整體業績,不包括 WM 醫療保健解決方案部門。除非另有說明,否則所有比較均與去年同期進行比較。

  • Net income, EPS, income from operations and margin, operating EBITDA and margin, operating expansion margin and SG&A expense and margin have been adjusted to enhance comparability by excluding certain items that management believes do not reflect our fundamental business performance or results of operations.

    淨利潤、每股收益、營業收入和利潤率、營業 EBITDA 和利潤率、營業擴張利潤率以及銷售、一般及行政費用和利潤率均已進行調整,以提高可比性,剔除了管理層認為不能反映我們基本業務表現或經營業績的某些項目。

  • These adjusted measures, in addition to free cash flow are non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the earnings press release and tables, which can be found on the company's website at www.wm.com for reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our use of non-GAAP measures.

    除了自由現金流之外,這些調整後的指標均為非公認會計準則指標。請參閱公司網站 www.wm.com 上的獲利新聞稿和表格,以了解與最可比較的 GAAP 指標的調節情況以及有關我們使用非 GAAP 指標的更多資訊。

  • This call is being recorded and will be available 24 hours a day beginning approximately 01:00 PM Eastern time today. To hear a replay of the call, access the WM website at www.investors.wm.com. Time sensitive information provided during today's call, which is occurring on October 28, 2025, may no longer be accurate at the time of a replay. Any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call in any form without the expressed written consent of WMS is prohibited.

    本次通話將被錄音,並將於今天美國東部時間下午 1 點左右開始 24 小時提供錄音。如需收聽電話會議錄音,請造訪 WM 網站 www.investors.wm.com。本次電話會議於 2025 年 10 月 28 日舉行,會議中提供的時效性資訊在重播時可能已不再準確。未經 WMS 的明確書面同意,禁止以任何形式重新散佈、重新傳輸或重新廣播此通話內容。

  • Now I'll turn the call over to WM CEO, Jim Fish.

    現在我將把電話交給 WM 執行長吉姆·菲什。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. Thanks, Ed, and thank you all for joining us. Our team delivered another strong quarter of operational and financial performance. This led to third quarter operating EBITDA growth of more than 15% and free cash flow growth of nearly 33%. These strong results reflect the hard work of our teams, the resilience of our business model and the value of the intentional investments we've made across our business.

    好的。謝謝艾德,也謝謝各位的參與。我們的團隊又一個季度取得了強勁的營運和財務表現。這使得第三季營運 EBITDA 成長超過 15%,自由現金流成長近 33%。這些優異的成績反映了我們團隊的辛勤工作、我們商業模式的韌性以及我們在整個業務中進行的有意識投資的價值。

  • Our collection and disposal business continues to be the engine behind our growth, contributing more than half of the year-over-year increase in operating EBITDA. The business drove strong organic revenue growth and we're particularly pleased with our ability to attract robust disposal volumes to our network.

    我們的收集和處置業務仍然是我們成長的引擎,貢獻了超過一半的營運 EBITDA 年成長。該業務實現了強勁的內生性收入成長,我們尤其滿意於我們能夠吸引大量廢棄物進入我們的網路。

  • MSW grew 5% in the quarter and special waste volumes grew 5.5%, driven by new event work. We also remain focused on maximizing customer lifetime value through our pricing strategies and leveraging technology to optimize our cost structure, and we continue to pursue tuck-in acquisition opportunities to extend our network and drive further internalization.

    本季城市固體廢棄物量成長了 5%,特殊廢棄物量成長了 5.5%,這主要得益於新的活動業務。我們將繼續專注於透過定價策略最大限度地提高客戶終身價值,並利用技術優化成本結構,同時繼續尋求補充收購機會,以擴展我們的網路並推動進一步的內部化。

  • Turning to WM Healthcare Solutions. The strategic value of the medical waste platform within WM's portfolio is more evident than ever. We've successfully integrated the people and operations of health care solutions into the existing management and operating structure of our 16 areas. This not only streamlines our operating model, but also allows us to apply our playbook, the WM way, across the acquired business, fostering a culture of customer focus, continuous improvement and accountability.

    轉向WM醫療保健解決方案。WM旗下醫療廢棄物處理平台的策略價值比以往任何時候都更加顯而易見。我們已成功將醫療保健解決方案的人員和營運整合到我們 16 個領域的現有管理和營運結構中。這不僅簡化了我們的營運模式,而且還使我們能夠將我們的營運模式(WM 的方式)應用到收購的業務中,從而培養以客戶為中心、持續改進和責任擔當的文化。

  • This aligned structure accelerates collaboration and unlocks new opportunities for growth. As an example, one of our top hospital customers has increased their annual spend with us by over $5 million after choosing us as their single provider solution across their multistate network. This is precisely the type of cross-selling opportunity that gives us confidence in the long-term value of our combined offering.

    這種協調一致的結構能夠加速協作,並釋放新的成長機會。例如,我們的一家頂級醫院客戶在選擇我們作為其跨州網路的單一供應商解決方案後,每年在我們這裡的支出增加了 500 多萬美元。正是這種交叉銷售機會讓我們對合併產品的長期價值充滿信心。

  • In our sustainability businesses, our solid performance is the direct result of success in managing contract structures and leveraging innovative technologies. Even as recycled commodity prices declined nearly 35% compared to last year, our Recycling segment operating EBITDA grew by 18%, which is a phenomenal result.

    在永續發展業務方面,我們所取得的穩健業績直接得益於我們在管理合約結構和利用創新技術方面的成功。儘管回收商品價格較去年下降了近 35%,但我們的回收業務部門的營業 EBITDA 仍增加了 18%,這是一個驚人的成績。

  • Our new renewable natural gas facilities drove higher year-over-year contributions from the Renewable Energy segment. The growth was lower sequentially due to the timing of RIN sales. Our full year growth expectations remain consistent with our initial outlook.

    我們新建的再生天然氣設施推動了再生能源業務板塊年比貢獻的成長。由於 RIN 銷售的時間安排,環比增長有所放緩。我們對全年的成長預期與我們最初的預期保持一致。

  • I'm proud of the momentum we're building in this final stretch of '25, and even more excited about the opportunities ahead. These last several years, including this one, have been years of deliberate and disciplined investment in technology and automation in our fleet in new recycling and renewable energy, renewable natural gas facilities, and in a premier medical waste platform.

    我為我們在 2025 年最後階段所取得的進展感到自豪,也對未來的機會感到更加興奮。過去幾年,包括今年在內,我們對車隊的技術和自動化進行了有計劃、有紀律的投資,包括新的回收和可再生能源、可再生天然氣設施以及一流的醫療廢物處理平台。

  • Each of these investments was made with intention, and with a long-term view, positioning us to serve our customers better while structurally lowering our cost to serve. We're pleased to share that 2026 is setting up to be a year of harvesting the benefits of our investments, which will be partially evident in our free cash flow as our early view for next year suggests free cash flow approaching $3.8 billion.

    每項投資都是經過深思熟慮、著眼長遠的,旨在更好地服務客戶,同時從根本上降低服務成本。我們很高興地宣布,2026 年將成為我們投資成果開始顯現的一年,這將在我們的自由現金流中得到部分體現,因為我們對明年的初步預測顯示,自由現金流將接近 38 億美元。

  • We remain thoughtful and disciplined in our capital allocation, and we fully expect to translate this performance into commensurate returns for our shareholders.

    我們在資本配置方面依然保持審慎和自律,我們完全有信心將這種績效轉化為股東的相應回報。

  • In closing, WM is exceptionally well positioned for future success. Our long-term strategy is delivering, and the investments we've made are paying off. As always, our results are a testament to the hard work and dedication of our people, and I sincerely appreciate the contributions of each and every team member.

    總之,WM 已做好充分準備,迎接未來的成功。我們的長期策略正在奏效,我們所做的投資正在獲得回報。一如既往,我們的成績證明了員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神,我衷心感謝每一位團隊成員的貢獻。

  • I'll now turn the call over to John to discuss our operational results.

    現在我將把電話轉給約翰來討論我們的營運結果。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, our team expanded margins by maintaining discipline on price to cost spread, leveraging advanced fleet and maintenance technology to reduce operating costs and realizing returns from our sustainability investments and strategic acquisitions. Our results affirm that our strategy is working and our disciplined organic and inorganic investments deliver long-term value.

    謝謝你,吉姆,大家早安。第三季度,我們的團隊透過控制價格成本差、利用先進的車隊和維護技術降低營運成本以及從永續發展投資和策略性收購中獲得回報,擴大了利潤率。我們的業績證明我們的策略是有效的,我們嚴謹的有機和無機投資帶來了長期價值。

  • In the third quarter, we saw continued growth in our core collection and disposal business, increased contributions from our sustainability businesses and sequential margin growth and synergy capture from our Healthcare Solutions segment. In our collection and disposal business, we delivered strong performance in the third quarter with operating EBITDA margins expanding 100 basis points to a record 38.4% and operating EBITDA growing more than 7%, with every line of business contributing to that growth.

    第三季度,我們的核心收集和處置業務持續成長,永續發展業務貢獻增加,醫療保健解決方案部門的利潤率環比增長並實現了協同效應。在我們的收集和處置業務中,第三季業績強勁,營業 EBITDA 利潤率增長 100 個基點,達到創紀錄的 38.4%,營業 EBITDA 增長超過 7%,每條業務線都為這一增長做出了貢獻。

  • Both results are consistent with our operating EBITDA growth and margin expansion objectives and reflect the strength of our post-collection assets, increased landfill volumes and our disciplined focus on optimizing price to cost spread through customer lifetime value. We're also realizing the returns on strategic investments we've made to enhance efficiency and structurally drive costs lower.

    這兩個結果均符合我們的營運 EBITDA 成長和利潤率擴張目標,並反映了我們收集後資產的實力、垃圾掩埋量的增加以及我們透過客戶終身價值優化價格成本分攤的嚴格關注。我們也正在逐步實現為提高效率和從結構上降低成本而進行的策略性投資的回報。

  • Looking at our top line, we delivered solid organic revenue growth in Q3 driven by disciplined pricing and improving volume trends in several lines of business. Core price was 6%, exceeding our plan with residential and disposal pricing leading the way.

    從營收來看,第三季我們實現了穩健的內生性營收成長,這得益於嚴格的定價策略和多個業務線銷售的持續成長。核心價格為 6%,超出了我們的計劃,其中住宅和處置價格領漲。

  • Collection and disposal yield came in at 3.8%, which was in line with expectations. Volume increased in the quarter with industrial up 1.2%, our first positive quarter since 2022. We remain focused on differentiating our services and maximizing customer lifetime value and our customers see the value of our service as churn remain right in the 9% range and service increases outpace service decreases.

    收集和處置率達 3.8%,與預期相符。本季銷量有所成長,其中工業銷量成長 1.2%,這是我們自 2022 年以來首次實現正成長的季度。我們始終專注於差異化服務,最大化客戶終身價值,而我們的客戶也看到了我們服務的價值,因為客戶流失率一直保持在 9% 左右,服務提升速度超過了服務下降速度。

  • Additionally, landfill volumes rose 5.2% with broad strength across MSW, special waste, and construction and demolition, mostly all unrelated to wildfire cleanup. As we mentioned at Investor Day, our strategic post-collection network continues to drive value both now and over the long term as we have seen both strong price and volume contributions, and our results keep us on track to meet our organic growth expectations for the full year.

    此外,垃圾掩埋場體積增加了 5.2%,城市固體廢物、特殊廢物以及建築和拆除垃圾的增長尤為強勁,但這些大多與野火清理無關。正如我們在投資者日上提到的,我們的策略性後回收網絡在當前和長期內持續創造價值,因為我們看到了強勁的價格和銷售貢獻,我們的業績使我們有望實現全年的有機成長預期。

  • Turning to operating expenses. Q3 marked our second consecutive quarter with operating expenses below 60% of revenue. This improvement was driven primarily by our collection and disposal business, which contributed 90 basis points of margin expansion through lower maintenance and risk management costs.

    接下來談談營運費用。第三季是我們連續第二季營運支出低於收入的 60%。這項改善主要得益於我們的收集和處置業務,該業務透過降低維護和風險管理成本,使利潤率提高了 90 個基點。

  • On the fleet side, investments in trucks and technology improved our maintenance processes, reduced repair and maintenance costs by 60 basis points. Additionally, our focus on retention and training and development contributed to a 7% year-to-date improvement in the total recordable incident rate, lowering our risk management cost as a percentage of revenue.

    在車隊方面,對卡車和技術的投資改善了我們的維護流程,使維修和維護成本降低了 60 個基點。此外,我們對員工留任、培訓和發展的重視,使今年迄今的總可記錄事故率提高了 7%,降低了我們的風險管理成本佔收入的百分比。

  • The strategic investments we've made in our team, our fleet, cutting-edge technology and comprehensive training are showing meaningful results. Turnover improved by an impressive 300 basis points, bringing the combined rate for drivers and technicians down to a record low of 16.8%. These results underscore that when we invest in our people, we invest in the future of our business.

    我們在團隊、機隊、尖端技術和全面培訓方面進行的策略性投資正在取得顯著成效。人員流動率大幅改善了 300 個基點,使司機和技術人員的綜合流動率降至 16.8% 的歷史新低。這些結果強調,投資員工就是投資企業的未來。

  • These same investments in people, process, and technology are showing up in the WM Healthcare Solutions business as well. Since the beginning of 2025, the team has improved turnover by 21% while also improving on-time service delivery to the highest level in over four years.

    WM Healthcare Solutions 業務也同樣反映了對人員、流程和技術的這些投資。自 2025 年初以來,該團隊已將營業額降低了 21%,同時將準時服務交付率提高到了四年多來的最高水準。

  • As we close the third quarter, our results reflect not only strong execution, but also the innovative mindset that continues to set WM apart. From advancing operational efficiency to strengthen our customer relationships, our progress is driven by the ingenuity and commitment of our team. Thank you to all of our employees for the work you do every day to move us forward.

    第三季即將結束,我們的業績不僅反映了強大的執行力,也體現了WM持續保持的創新思維。從提高營運效率到加強與客戶的關係,我們的進步都離不開團隊的創造力和奉獻精神。感謝全體員工每天為推動公司發展所做的工作。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Devina to walk through our financial results in more detail.

    接下來,我將把電話轉給 Devina,讓她更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, John, and good morning. Total company operating EBITDA margin was 30.6% in the third quarter, which is the best quarterly results in our history and that is despite the expected margin headwind from the acquisition of the Healthcare Solutions business.

    謝謝你,約翰,早安。第三季公司總營業 EBITDA 利潤率為 30.6%,這是我們歷史上最好的季度業績,即便收購醫療保健解決方案業務帶來了預期的利潤率不利因素。

  • WM's legacy business achieved operating EBITDA margin of 32% in the quarter, meaningfully surpassing our long-standing ambition of sustained operating EBITDA margins above 30%. We achieved these results while overcoming a known 30 basis point headwind from the expiration of the alternative fuel tax credit.

    WM 的傳統業務在本季度實現了 32% 的營業 EBITDA 利潤率,顯著超過了我們長期以來持續實現 30% 以上營業 EBITDA 利潤率的目標。我們克服了替代燃料稅收抵免到期帶來的 30 個基點的不利影響,並取得了這些成果。

  • Our legacy business achieved 120 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter from four primary things: one, continued optimization of business mix with strong municipal solid waste volumes, taking the place of low-margin residential volumes; two, our focus on operational efficiencies in our collection and disposal business; three, the scaling of our sustainability businesses; and four, our dedicated focus on reducing costs.

    本季度,我們的傳統業務利潤率增長了 120 個基點,這主要得益於以下四點:一、持續優化業務組合,以強勁的城市固體廢物量取代低利潤率的居民廢物量;二、我們專注於提高收集和處置業務的運營效率;三、擴大可持續發展業務規模;四、我們致力於降低成本。

  • The remaining 60 basis points of margin expansion was driven by lower recycled commodity prices in our brokerage business and a reduction in incentive compensation costs. As I mentioned, the Healthcare Solutions business created an expected headwind for our consolidated margins.

    剩餘的 60 個基點利潤率擴張是由經紀業務中回收商品價格的下降和激勵性薪酬成本的降低所推動的。正如我之前提到的,醫療保健解決方案業務對我們的合併利潤率造成了預期的不利影響。

  • Our focus on optimizing this business will lessen this pressure over time and we can already see the benefits of the team's integration and optimization efforts on the margins of this segment, which have improved each quarter since we acquired the business and are now at 17.5%.

    我們專注於優化這項業務,隨著時間的推移,這種壓力將會減輕。我們已經可以看到團隊的整合和優化工作在該業務板塊的利潤率上取得了成效,自我們收購該業務以來,利潤率每個季度都在提高,目前已達到 17.5%。

  • The key takeaway from all of this is that WM's disciplined focus on driving efficiency and investing in high-return opportunities is benefiting our financial results. Our strong performance continues to translate into robust operating and free cash flow growth.

    從這一切中我們可以看出,WM 專注於提高效率和投資高回報機會的策略,正在使我們的財務表現受益。我們強勁的業績持續轉化為穩健的營運和自由現金流成長。

  • Through the first nine months of 2025, we generated $4.35 billion in cash from operations, an increase of 12% compared to the same period in 2024. This increase reflects our significant earnings growth, partially offset by higher cash interest due to the debt issued last year to fund the acquisition of Stericycle.

    2025 年前九個月,我們從經營活動中產生了 43.5 億美元的現金,比 2024 年同期成長了 12%。這一成長反映了我們顯著的獲利成長,但部分被去年為收購 Stericycle 而發行的債務所產生的較高現金利息所抵消。

  • Capital spending to support the business and our sustainability growth investments are both tracking according to plan, totaling $2.34 billion for the year-to-date period. Putting these pieces together, free cash flow has grown 13.5% to $2.11 billion.

    支持業務發展的資本支出和永續發展成長投資均按計畫進行,今年迄今總計達 23.4 億美元。綜合以上數據,自由現金流成長了 13.5%,達到 21.1 億美元。

  • Notably, our operating EBITDA to free cash flow conversion approached 42% in the third quarter, reflecting that we have moved from peak investment levels in sustainability growth projects, landfill infrastructure, and our fleet into a period where we will harvest strong returns on these investments.

    值得注意的是,我們第三季的經營性 EBITDA 與自由現金流的轉換率接近 42%,這反映出我們已經從永續發展成長項目、垃圾掩埋場基礎設施​​和車隊的峰值投資水準過渡到我們將從這些投資中獲得強勁回報的時期。

  • Through the first three quarters of 2025, we've returned $1 billion to our shareholders and dividends, and allocated more than $400 million to solid waste acquisitions. Our leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 3.3 times, and we continue to track toward our target ratio of between 2.5 and 3 times, which we expect to achieve by the middle of 2026.

    截至 2025 年前三個季度,我們已向股東返還了 10 億美元並支付了股息,並將超過 4 億美元用於固體廢物收購。本季末,我們的槓桿率為 3.3 倍,我們正朝著 2.5 倍至 3 倍的目標槓桿率穩步邁進,預計到 2026 年年中將實現這一目標。

  • Turning to WM Healthcare Solutions. As Jim mentioned, we're as confident as ever in the strategic value of the acquisition, and we are committed to fully capturing its long-term potential. Revenue trends for this business reflect a more measured pace than our initial projections. This is because we are using a disciplined approach to customer engagement, which means we have offered credits and deferred planned price increases for some of our customers.

    轉向WM醫療保健解決方案。正如吉姆所說,我們一如既往地對此次收購的戰略價值充滿信心,並且我們致力於充分發揮其長期潛力。該業務的收入趨勢比我們最初的預測更為穩健。這是因為我們對客戶互動採取了嚴謹的態度,這意味著我們已經為部分客戶提供了信用額度並推遲了原定的價格上漲計劃。

  • All of this reflects our focus on maximizing customer lifetime value and building a strong foundation for sustainable long-term growth. Despite the moderation and the anticipated pace of revenue growth in the second half of 2025, we're on track to achieve the targeted operating EBITDA contributions from the acquisition across our total company results, because synergy capture has exceeded our initial expectations, internalization of waste into our landfill network has been effective, and cross-selling opportunities are proving to be strong.

    這一切都體現了我們對最大化客戶終身價值和為永續的長期成長奠定堅實基礎的重視。儘管 2025 年下半年的營收成長速度有所放緩,但我們仍有望實現此次收購對公司整體業績的預期營運 EBITDA 貢獻目標,因為協同效應的實現超出了我們最初的預期,垃圾掩埋場網路內部化的廢棄物處理工作卓有成效,交叉銷售機會也十分強勁。

  • Turning to our total company outlook for the remainder of the year. We remain confident in our ability to deliver the operating EBITDA and free cash flow guidance we provided last quarter. Full-year revenue is projected to be at the low end of our prior guidance range, reflecting incremental weakness in recycled commodity prices and our revised expectations for Healthcare Solutions.

    接下來談談我們對公司今年剩餘時間的整體展望。我們仍有信心實現上季給予的經營性 EBITDA 和自由現金流預期。全年營收預計將處於我們先前預期範圍的低端,這反映了再生商品價格的持續疲軟以及我們對醫療保健解決方案的預期有所調整。

  • With our outstanding year-to-date operating EBITDA margin results and confidence in our continued execution as we close out the year, margin expectations have increased to between 29.6% and 30.2%. In short, we are well positioned to achieve another year of strong earnings, margin, and cash flow growth in 2025 and to build on our success as we go into 2026.

    憑藉我們今年迄今出色的經營 EBITDA 利潤率業績,以及對年底前持續執行的信心,利潤率預期已提高至 29.6% 至 30.2%。簡而言之,我們已做好充分準備,在 2025 年實現又一個強勁的盈利、利潤率和現金流增長年,並在 2026 年繼續鞏固我們的成功。

  • Finally, as many of you know, this is my final earnings call as CFO before my upcoming retirement from WM. Over the past 23 years, I've had the privilege of being part of this extraordinary team. Together, we work hard each day to care for each other and our communities and to deliver value to all of our stakeholders.

    最後,正如你們許多人所知,這是我作為財務長在即將從 WM 退休前的最後一次財報電話會議。在過去的23年裡,我有幸成為這個卓越團隊的一員。我們每天齊心協力,努力關懷彼此和我們的社區,並為所有利害關係人創造價值。

  • In closing, I must say that my favorite thing about our business has always been the people. I want to thank the entire team for leading the way in service to our customers, the environment, and to our shareholders.

    最後,我必須說,我最喜歡我們這個行業的一點始終是人。我要感謝整個團隊,感謝他們在服務客戶、保護環境和維護股東利益方面所扮演的領導角色。

  • To our shareholders, thank you for your trust and support. I have complete confidence in the WM team and in David Reid, our incoming CFO, who knows this business deeply and has been instrumental in shaping our financial strategy. I know the future is bright, and I look forward to watching WM's continued success.

    感謝各位股東的信任與支持。我對 WM 團隊和即將上任的財務長 David Reid 充滿信心,他對這個行業非常了解,並且在製定我們的財務策略方面發揮了重要作用。我知道未來一片光明,我期待看到 WM 繼續取得成功。

  • With that, Lydia, let's open the line for questions.

    那麼,莉迪亞,我們現在開始接受提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Tyler Brown, Raymond James.

    (操作說明)泰勒布朗,雷蒙德詹姆斯。

  • Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst

    Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst

  • Devina, I've got a couple of housekeeping items. But just year-to-date, how much have you guys benefited from the onetime cleanup work at the landfill? Just want to make sure I have that right for next year?

    德維娜,我這裡有一些家務用品。但就今年至今而言,你們從垃圾掩埋場的一次性清理工作中受益多少?我只是想確認一下,明年我的說法是否正確?

  • And then secondly, can you go through a couple of the charges this quarter? Has that plastic still plant just been idled based on commodities? Or was that a technology issue? And then what was the genesis of the landfill closure and the charge in renewables? I'm sorry. I know that's a lot, but I appreciate it.

    其次,您能否詳細介紹本季的一些費用?那家塑膠蒸餾廠是不是因為商品價格波動而停產了?還是那是技術問題?那麼,垃圾掩埋場關閉和再生能源轉型升級的緣起又是什麼呢?對不起。我知道這很多,但我很感激。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. Let me take them in pieces. So first, with respect to the wildfire volumes, I think it's important to first highlight what John mentioned in his prepared remarks, that there was virtually no impact of that in the third quarter. That really was mostly a Q2 item. There was some in Q1. Total revenues for that were around $115 million for the year.

    是的。讓我把它們拆開。首先,關於野火數量,我認為首先要強調的是約翰在他準備好的演講稿中提到的,那就是第三季幾乎沒有受到野火的影響。那其實主要是第二季的項目。第一季有一些。該業務全年總收入約為 1.15 億美元。

  • And as we've talked about, the flow-through on that revenue is higher than our portfolio flow-through on incremental volume, which tends to be in the 45%-ish range. As you can imagine, landfill volumes and special event volume tends to be at the higher end. So you have to extrapolate that in order to think about total EBITDA impact. But I want to reiterate that the strength of Q3 solid waste results really indicates that we accomplished about $145 million in EBITDA growth in that segment. without any meaningful impacts from the wildfires.

    正如我們之前討論過的,該收入的轉換率高於我們投資組合中新增銷售的轉換率,後者通常在 45% 左右。您可以想像,垃圾掩埋場的垃圾量和特殊活動的垃圾量往往較高。所以你必須進行推斷,才能考慮 EBITDA 的整體影響。但我想要重申,第三季固體廢棄物業務的強勁業績確實表明,我們在該業務板塊實現了約1.45億美元的EBITDA成長,而且沒有受到山火的任何重大影響。

  • With regard to the charges, I'm going to let Tara address the Natura activities because you'll do that better than I could. But with regard to the landfill impairment that we took in the quarter, that was a really long-term pursuit of expansion at hazardous waste landfill in the Northeast, and we had some news this quarter that indicated that our pursuit would no longer be worth moving forward with.

    至於指控方面,我會讓塔拉來處理 Natura 的活動,因為你肯定比我更擅長處理這些事。但就我們本季提列的垃圾掩埋場減損損失而言,那是我們長期以來在東北地區擴建危險廢棄物掩埋場的計劃,而本季我們收到了一些消息,表明我們的擴建計劃不再值得繼續推進。

  • And both recorded an impairment of the existing net book value of that and then also reported the impact of an acceleration from former estimates in the expected closure and post closure cost for the site.

    兩者都記錄了該地塊現有帳面淨值的減值,並報告了場地預期關閉和關閉後成本較先前估計值加速變化的影響。

  • Tara Hemmer - Senior Vice President, Chief Sustainability Officer

    Tara Hemmer - Senior Vice President, Chief Sustainability Officer

  • So on Natura, it is absolutely market conditions. We built this plan and demonstrated that we can produce a high-quality pellet that customers would buy. But with virgin prices being at all-time lows and some of the minimum content legislation being a bit delayed the buyers were just not there for the product that we were producing. So we made the decision to temporarily close the operations. We could start it back up, but we're going to monitor what happens with those market conditions going forward.

    所以,Natura 的定價完全取決於市場狀況。我們制定了這個計劃,並證明我們可以生產出顧客願意購買的高品質顆粒。但由於原生牛肉價格處於歷史低位,而且一些最低含量法規的實施也有些延遲,因此我們生產的產品並沒有吸引到買家。因此,我們決定暫時停止營運。我們可以重新啟動,但我們會密切注意未來的市場狀況。

  • Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst

    Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst

  • Okay. Very, very helpful. Appreciate that. And then, Jim, I very much appreciate the early look on the '26 free cash. But can you give us any help on some of the pieces to get there? I mean, what mid- to call it mid-, high-single-digit improvement in EBITDA, which I think is pretty consistent with the Analyst Day makes sense. And then will part of the improvement in free cash be a sizable drop in green CapEx? Just any broad steps there?

    好的。非常非常有幫助。謝謝。吉姆,我非常感謝你提前透露了 2026 年的自由現金流情況。但是,您能否在實現目標的某些步驟上給我們一些幫助?我的意思是,EBITDA 實現了中等偏高的個位數成長,我認為這與分析師日的說法相當一致,是合理的。那麼,自由現金流的改善是否會部分轉化為綠色資本支出的大幅下降?有什麼大致的步驟嗎?

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So it's coming from a number of different places, Tyler. I mean if you think about the wind down of the sustainability investments and then a ramp-up in the related EBITDA, that's a big piece of it. You'll see the normal strong performance of our legacy business, which tends to perform year in and year out. And so you'll see that as well, and we'll give you kind of the exact number when we get to next quarter.

    是的。所以,泰勒,它來自很多不同的地方。我的意思是,如果你考慮到永續發展投資的逐步減少,以及相關 EBITDA 的逐步增加,這其中有很大一部分原因。你會看到我們傳統業務一如既往的強勁表現,該業務往往年復一年地保持良好業績。所以你們也會看到這一點,到了下個季度,我們會給你們一個確切的數字。

  • In addition, we bought -- I think, John, correct me if I'm wrong here, about 6,000 trucks over the last three years, and that's above our normal spend on fleet. So we'll ratchet back to more of a normal looking year with about 1,500 trucks. So you'll see maintenance capital be a piece of that.

    此外,約翰,我想,如果我沒記錯的話,我們在過去三年裡購買了大約 6000 輛卡車,這超過了我們正常的車隊支出。所以,我們將逐步恢復到更正常的年份,預計卡車數量約為 1500 輛。所以你會看到維護資金是其中的一部分。

  • You'll also see, and I can talk about this too, Healthcare Solutions. There's a number of reasons why healthcare Solutions is going to be a nice contributor to free cash flow next year, not the least of which is reducing the cost of integration, which has been substantial this year. You'll see some carry -- a fair amount of carryover from synergies that we were collecting throughout the year this year that we'll get the full year of next year. You'll see some additional synergies in that business next year.

    您還會看到,而且我也可以談談醫療保健解決方案。醫療保健解決方案明年將成為自由現金流的良好貢獻者,原因有很多,其中最重要的是降低了整合成本,而今年的整合成本相當高。你會看到一些結轉收益——今年我們全年累積的協同效應會產生相當多的結轉收益,這些收益將在明年全年持續產生。明年你會看到該業務領域出現更多綜效。

  • So there's a number of reasons why Healthcare Solutions will be a nice contributor to free cash flow. So there's quite a bit going into that. I don't know that, that helped you fill out the model. But I think you'll be able to -- when you hear us in January, be able to recognize that this is not just one thing that's causing us to be bullish on free cash flow.

    因此,醫療保健解決方案將成為自由現金流的良好貢獻者,原因有很多。所以這裡面有很多因素要考慮。我不知道,但這是否有助於你完善模型。但我認為,當您在一月份聽到我們的消息時,您就會明白,這不僅僅是讓我們看好自由現金流的一件事。

  • Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst

    Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst

  • Yeah. No, I totally get there's a lot of pieces. And just if I can squeeze one last one. So I think at the beginning of the year, you guys said that sustainability EBITDA would be up, call it, [$280 million] at the midpoint this year. It does appear year-to-date on my math. Again, this is my math, but it is tracking pretty well below that. I assume there's going to be a step-up in Q4. And then I thought, Jim, I heard you say that you are expecting to hit that target for '25. Is that right?

    是的。不,我完全明白這裡面有很多部件。如果我還能擠出最後一個就好了。所以我覺得年初的時候,你們說過永續發展 EBITDA 將會在今年年中達到,比方說,2.8 億美元。根據我的計算,今年迄今為止確實如此。再次聲明,這是我的計算結果,但實際情況遠低於這個預期。我估計第四季會有顯著成長。然後我想,吉姆,我聽你說過你預計在 2025 年實現那個目標。是這樣嗎?

  • And then two, and Tara, this is my bigger picture question, but with where commodity prices are where RINs are. Do you still have that full confidence in achieving that near $800 million of total incremental by '27? Or should we start thinking about maybe haircutting that a little bit or pushing it out a little bit further? Appreciate it.

    然後是第二點,Tara,這是我更宏觀的問題,但商品價格和 RINs 的價格走勢有何關係?您是否仍完全有信心在 2027 年實現近 8 億美元的增量目標?或者我們應該考慮把頭髮剪短一點,或再往外梳一點?非常感謝。

  • Tara Hemmer - Senior Vice President, Chief Sustainability Officer

    Tara Hemmer - Senior Vice President, Chief Sustainability Officer

  • So let me take this in pieces. And first, I'll start with the renewable energy business. So we're making great progress on our projects. As Jim mentioned, you might have noticed that our earnings might have looked a little muted in the quarter. But that really is because we made the decision to defer really selling some of our RINs in Q4 because we saw pricing upticking a bit.

    讓我一步一步來解釋。首先,我將從再生能源產業談起。所以,我們的專案進展非常順利。正如吉姆所提到的,您可能已經注意到,我們本季的收益看起來有點平淡。但實際上,這是因為我們決定推遲在第四季度出售一些 RIN,因為我們看到價格略有上漲。

  • And on the volume side in 2025, just to give you a little bit of color, we're on track through the first nine months of the year where we doubled the amount of RNG production. So we're seeing the benefits flow through from those plans.

    至於 2025 年的產量方面,為了讓您更清楚地了解情況,我們在今年前九個月的產量翻了一番,目前一切進展順利。所以我們看到這些計劃帶來的好處正在逐漸顯現。

  • As far as what we guided in 2025, we're expecting our renewable energy business to be on track. What's lagging is the recycling business, which is primarily commodity price driven. We've made a lot of great strides on our automation investments.

    就我們2025年的預期而言,我們預計我們的再生能源業務將按計劃進行。落後的是回收業,該行業主要受大宗商品價格驅動。我們在自動化投資方面取得了長足進展。

  • And if you look at what Jim mentioned that commodity prices were down nearly 35% and EBITDA was up 18%. That is a testament to the benefit that we're driving out of these investments in labor costs and operating expenses and our EBITDA margins are more than doubling at those automation plans.

    如果你看看吉姆提到的內容,你會發現大宗商品價格下跌了近 35%,而 EBITDA 上漲了 18%。這證明了我們從這些投資中獲得的收益,包括降低勞動成本和營運費用,而且在這些自動化計劃下,我們的 EBITDA 利潤率翻了一番還多。

  • So what you might see going forward into '26 and '27, on the recycling side, you'll recall we gave you a range of between $75 a ton and $150 a ton for what we might expect out of the recycling business. And so for the automation investments, we expect roughly a $10 change to equate to about $8 million.

    那麼,展望 2026 年和 2027 年,在回收方面,您可能還記得我們曾給出每噸 75 美元到 150 美元的範圍,作為我們對回收業務的預期。因此,對於自動化投資,我們預計大約 10 美元的變化將相當於約 800 萬美元。

  • And then you would have to add to that for our base business, a $10 change is about $20 million. So all in, somewhere between $25 million and $30 million would be our new $10 change. But we're -- we remain very confident on where we're headed. We're looking at renewable energy pricing and what's happening in the RINs market, and we're seeing prices for 2026 in that [$220 to $230] range. so still within our investment thesis.

    而且,對於我們的基本業務來說,10 美元的變動大約會造成 2,000 萬美元的損失。所以總而言之,我們新的10美元零錢大概要2500萬美元到3000萬美元。但是,我們——我們對未來的發展方向仍然非常有信心。我們正在關注再生能源定價和RINs市場的情況,預計2026年的價格將在220美元至230美元之間。因此,這仍然符合我們的投資邏輯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

    諾亞凱,奧本海默。

  • Noah Kaye - Analyst

    Noah Kaye - Analyst

  • I'll add the congratulations to Devina for a long career at WM. Thanks for all the dialogue over the years, and we wish you well on the retirement.

    我還要祝賀德維娜在WM公司擁有如此長久的職業生涯。感謝您多年來的交流,祝福您退休生活一切順利。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Noah.

    謝謝,諾亞。

  • Noah Kaye - Analyst

    Noah Kaye - Analyst

  • So now that we know that landfill volumes didn't benefit from wildfire in 3Q, can we double-click on the strength in MSW as well as what drove the positive inflection in industrial volumes?

    既然我們知道第三季垃圾掩埋場的垃圾量並沒有因為野火而增加,那麼我們能否進一步分析城市固體廢棄物處理量的強勁表現,以及是什麼推動了工業垃圾處理量的積極轉變?

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So volume was a good picture for us this quarter. When you think about industrial, it's been negative for several years now. And so the fact that it ticked up was encouraging. It was pretty evenly spread geographically. Part of that industrial pickup was the conversion of WM Healthcare Solutions hospital customers that moved from other companies to us. So that was a piece of it. I guess you could call that cross-selling, I don't know. But it certainly is a benefit of acquiring the business.

    是的。因此,本季成交量對我們來說是一個不錯的數字。提到工業領域,近幾年來一直處於負面狀態。因此,它小幅上漲的事實令人鼓舞。它的地理分佈相當均勻。工業成長的一部分原因是 WM Healthcare Solutions 的醫院客戶從其他公司轉投我們公司。這是其中的一部分。我猜你可以把這叫做交叉銷售,我也不確定。但這無疑是收購這家企業的優勢之一。

  • Temp roll-off was slightly stronger across a couple of geographies as well. So that contributed. And then you didn't ask about resi, but resi is has been negative for a number of years. And I think, John, we've talked about it starting to flatten out at the back half of next year, but the volume -- the margins have certainly been strong there.

    在某些地區,氣溫下降幅度也略大。所以這也起了一定作用。然後你沒有問到 resi 的情況,但 resi 已經連續多年為負值。約翰,我認為,我們已經討論過明年下半年銷量可能會開始趨於平穩,但銷量——利潤率肯定一直很高。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah. I mean if you look at quarter-to-date, year-to-date, the revenue despite the volume headwinds is up in the quarter and the date. And I think for the quarter, we were still up $10 million in revenue and about 155 basis points. So that math is still working, but to your point, Jim, about the outsized volume impact.

    是的。我的意思是,如果你看一下季度至今和年初至今的數據,儘管銷量面臨不利因素,但季度和年初至今的收入仍然有所增長。我認為,就本季而言,我們的營收仍成長了 1,000 萬美元,成長了約 155 個基點。所以,這個數學模型仍然有效,但正如你所說,吉姆,關於數量過大的影響。

  • If you remember last quarter, we talked about one big franchise. It's affecting about 250 basis points of that negative landfill -- excuse me, residential print and it's about 50 to 60 basis points on the commercial side because that will be another question. It's that franchise business.

    如果你還記得上個季度的話,我們討論過一個大型特許經營項目。它對住宅印刷品的負面影響產生了大約 250 個基點的影響,而對商業印刷品的影響則產生了大約 50 到 60 個基點的影響,因為那是另一個問題了。就是那種特許經營模式。

  • So we should lap that at the end of Q4. To your point, we've said we think we'll see continued improvement in trends in residential and probably get sub-3 by the first quarter of next year and continue to improve there.

    所以我們應該在第四季末達到這個目標。正如您所說,我們認為住宅市場的發展趨勢將持續改善,明年第一季可能會達到 3 美元以下,並且將繼續改善。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And then, Noah, on landfill volumes, not only was MSW positive, really all waste streams showed nice positive movements. And MSW in particular, I think, is reflecting the strength of our network really more than anything else. It wasn't similar to the industrial line of business. It wasn't something you could point to specifically in one place. It was pretty universal. And so we're pleased with it, but it certainly wasn't a case of us trading price for volume because if you look at the price numbers, they were very strong as well, particularly MSW, I think, was a 6.7% yield.

    然後,諾亞,關於垃圾掩埋量,不僅城市固體廢物量呈現積極趨勢,實際上所有廢物流都出現了良好的積極變化。而我認為,MSW(社會工作碩士)課程尤其體現了我們人脈的實力,這比其他任何事情都更能說明問題。它與工業領域的業務並不相似。這並非你能具體指出的某個原因。這幾乎是普遍現象。因此我們對此感到滿意,但這絕對不是我們用價格換取銷量的情況,因為如果你看看價格數據,它們也非常強勁,特別是城市固體廢物,我認為收益率達到了 6.7%。

  • So we're pleased with it. I wish I could give you a better answer on other than just the network is very strong and why it's coming to us. The pipeline on special waste, we just heard from our area leaders last week is it continues to look good. So overall, we're pleased with volume numbers.

    所以我們對結果很滿意。我希望我能給你一個更好的答案,而不是僅僅說網路非常強大,以及為什麼它會傳輸到我們這裡。上週我們從地區領導層了解到,特殊廢棄物的管道運輸情況依然良好。總的來說,我們對銷售數據感到滿意。

  • Noah Kaye - Analyst

    Noah Kaye - Analyst

  • Okay. Nice to see the margin guide raised for the year. There's still, I think, a fairly sizable range there for one quarter implied. So just broad upon what would take you to the low end versus the high end of that margin guide?

    好的。很高興看到今年的利潤率指導值有所提高。我認為,一個季度的隱含利率仍然存在相當大的波動範圍。那麼,請大致說明一下,什麼情況下你會達到利潤率指南的低端,什麼情況下你會達到高端?

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, it's a good question. And what I can tell you is we're optimistic about the margin outcomes. I think that what you're left with is recognizing that with softness on the revenue line, there had to be outperformance in our execution, particularly in the collection and disposal business on margin, and that's what lifts our confidence in the top end of that range.

    是的,這是個好問題。我可以告訴大家的是,我們對利潤率結果持樂觀態度。我認為,最終你會意識到,在收入疲軟的情況下,我們的執行力必須有所提升,尤其是在利潤率方面,即回收和處置業務,這增強了我們對該區間高端的信心。

  • I don't anticipate much that would drive us to underperform on that range. So I do think you're looking at midpoint to the upper and being the most likely outcome for the fourth quarter.

    我預計不會有什麼因素會導致我們在該範圍內表現不佳。所以我認為,第四季最有可能的結果應該是中點到上點之間。

  • With respect to what gives us that confidence, I really think it's important to reiterate that when you look at the 32% collection and disposal margin in the quarter, it's the result of the retention benefits that we've talked about driving efficiency and safety. It's the fleet investment, it's improved price/cost spread and its improved mix, which Jim just gave you color on, particularly with those landfill volumes being so strong.

    至於是什麼讓我們充滿信心,我認為有必要重申,本季 32% 的收集和處置利潤率,正是我們之前討論過的留存效益提升了效率和安全性的結果。是車隊投資、價格/成本差的改善以及產品組合的改進,吉姆剛才已經詳細地向你介紹了這一點,尤其是在垃圾掩埋量如此強勁的情況下。

  • So that's what gives us confidence, combined with the fact that, as Tara mentioned, Q4 will be a strong quarter of RIN sales, and those are effectively 100% accretive to margins. So really expect the fourth quarter to be another strong quarter of margin performance.

    因此,這讓我們充滿信心,再加上 Tara 提到的,第四季度 RIN 銷售額將強勁增長,而 RIN 銷售額實際上對利潤率有 100% 的提升作用。因此,預計第四季利潤率將再次表現強勁。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Trevor Romeo, William Blair.

    特雷弗·羅密歐,威廉·布萊爾。

  • Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst

    Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst

  • First one I had was just on the Healthcare Solutions business. If you could maybe just touch a little more on the deferral of the pricing increases. Just maybe like what customers are pushing back and why?

    我的第一份工作是關於醫療保健解決方案業務的。如果您能再詳細談談價格上漲的延遲問題就更好了。或許可以問問顧客在抵制什麼,以及為什麼?

  • And then just in terms of maybe the long-term pricing power of that business, what's your confidence in the ability to eventually get those price increases and achieve the mid-single-digit revenue growth you expect for that business?

    那麼,就該業務的長期定價能力而言,您有多大信心最終能夠實現價格上漲,並達到您預期的中等個位數收入成長?

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Trevor, apologies for a long answer here, but I'll touch on the price increase piece. But let me give a little bit of perspective for everybody here on Stericycle after 12 months of owning the business. First of all -- and we talked about this in our prepared remarks, but strategically, we view this as being even better than the original business case.

    是的。特雷弗,很抱歉我的回答有點長,但我會談談價格上漲的問題。但是,在經營 Stericycle 12 個月後,我想和這裡的每個人分享我的看法。首先——我們在準備好的演講稿中也談到了這一點——從策略角度來看,我們認為這甚至比最初的商業案例還要好。

  • It's hard to -- the secular trends absolutely support this. It's hard to read an article these days about the next 10-plus years of economic growth in the US without reading something about lower birth rates or an age population here. And all of that supports this business.

    很難說——但長期趨勢完全支持這一點。如今,很難找到一篇關於美國未來十多年經濟成長的文章而不提及美國的低出生率或老齡化人口問題。所有這些都對這項業務起到了支撐作用。

  • We know that what happens is we get orders that there's demand for higher demand for health care services. And the market position of this business, too, is incredible. There -- I'm not sure we realize that coming in, how strong their market position is geographically. I think regarding pricing, and then it's really related to the ERP implementation itself, Devina can comment on this as well. But overall, as a comment about the ERP, I mean, it's moving along well.

    我們知道,接下來我們會接到訂單,顯示對醫療保健服務的需求增加。這家企業的市場地位也令人難以置信。在那裡——我不確定我們進入市場時是否意識到,他們在地理上的市場地位有多強大。我認為關於定價,這實際上與 ERP 實施本身有關,Devina 也可以對此發表評論。但總的來說,就 ERP 系統而言,我的意思是,它進展順利。

  • I think it's worth mentioning, every single company that's ever implemented in ERP, including ourselves, by the way, has measured this in years, not in months. And there are always some challenges with it. And this one, in particular, our ERP rolled out a few years ago off of a well-run system. This was not a well-run system. And so we had some challenges, I think, coming in.

    我認為值得一提的是,所有實施 ERP 系統的公司(包括我們自己)都是以年為單位來衡量的,而不是以月為單位。當然,它也總是會面臨一些挑戰。特別是我們幾年前在一個運作良好的系統基礎上推出的這個ERP系統。這套系統運作得併不好。所以我覺得,我們一開始就遇到了一些挑戰。

  • What we saw with the top line really was that it was affected by a couple of things. You mentioned one of them, which is deferred price increases. The other was credits given to customers as we're trying to clear up this AR. By the way, we've cleared up a third of the past due accounts receivable just over the last three months, about -- some of that is coming in the form of cash collection. Some of it is coming in the form of credits.

    我們從總績效可以看出,它確實受到了幾個因素的影響。你提到了其中之一,那就是推遲價格上漲。另一種方式是向客戶發放信用額度,因為我們正在努力解決這筆應收帳款。順便說一下,在過去的三個月裡,我們已經清理了大約三分之一的逾期應收帳款——其中一些是以現金收款的形式實現的。一部分會以學分的形式發放。

  • The good news there is that those credits are, for the most part, are going to be one-timers. It's not as if we'll never give another credit, but a lot of those are onetime credits that we're giving to customers. And then we're seeing a bit of churn as well. It's not excessive churn, but we are seeing some churn. So it's really those three things. It's deferred price increases. It's some credits. We're giving to customers to clear up old AR and it's some churn with the business and a bit of volume as well there.

    好消息是,這些學分大多都是一次性的。並不是說我們以後永遠不會再發放信用額度,但許多信用額度都是一次性發放給客戶的。此外,我們也看到一些人員流動。雖然人員流動並不嚴重,但我們確實看到了一些人員流動。所以關鍵就在於這三件事。這是延後漲價。這是一些學分。我們正在向客戶發放款項以清理舊的應收帳款,這既能清理業務中的一些欠款,也能處理一些業務量。

  • But overall, look, we're -- we think that -- we talked about the synergies outperforming, Devina mentioned that in her script. Those are outperforming for us. And by the way, this ERP, I mean, we absolutely have the right team on it right now. We have a super strong team on it.

    但總的來說,你看,我們認為——我們談到了協同效應的超常發揮,Devina 在她的腳本中也提到了這一點。它們的表現優於我們的預期。順便說一句,關於這個ERP系統,我的意思是,我們現在絕對擁有合適的團隊來負責它。我們擁有一支實力非常強大的團隊。

  • They are focusing on a whole bunch of different work streams. We're doing things like rolling out a new invoice to customers shortly. The systems are now finally talking to each other. So SAP and Salesforce are talking to each other. I'm not sure that was the case before. And so this becomes not an if anymore. This is a when. And I think the when is -- is still well into '26.

    他們正專注於許多不同的工作流程。我們即將推出新的發票格式供客戶使用。各個系統現在終於可以互相溝通了。所以SAP和Salesforce正在互相通信。我不確定以前是否如此。所以,這不再是一個「如果」的問題了。這是一個時機。我認為具體時間——還要等到 2026 年。

  • And -- but what we can say is that this quickly become transparent to our customers. It's all internal work that's being done, things like the new invoice, those aren't transparent to the customer. They'll see that and they like it. But again, long answer to your short question there, but we do feel really good about this.

    但我們可以肯定的是,這很快就會被我們的客戶察覺。這些都是內部工作,例如新的發票,這些對客戶來說並不透明。他們會看到這一點,而且會喜歡的。不過,對於你提出的簡短問題,我的回答有點長,但我們對此確實感到非常滿意。

  • I know a lot of you wrote about it in your early remarks, but strategically, it's a great business, and we're making a ton of progress on all fronts.

    我知道你們很多人在之前的發言中都提到過這一點,但從戰略角度來看,這是一個很棒的行業,我們在各個方面都取得了巨大的進步。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And Trevor, I'd just like to underscore one thing, I think, to address your question very directly. And that's that this was not a step that we took as reaction to pushback from customers, quite the opposite. It was a step that we took because WM does the right thing for our customers. And so whether it's the credit or the customer-centric evaluation of service and contract that was necessary for us to ensure that we're taking the right steps with price increase.

    特雷弗,我想強調一點,以便更直接地回答你的問題。也就是說,我們採取這一步驟並非是對客戶反對的回應,恰恰相反。我們採取這一步驟是因為 WM 始終以客戶利益為先。因此,無論是信用評估還是以客戶為中心的服務和合約評估,對於我們確保在價格上漲方面採取正確措施都是必要的。

  • Those were things that we did because we do think is the right way. And you'll just see effectively a restabilization of revenue as we get into 2026 outlook. But I think this housekeeping that you're seeing in the third quarter was necessary for us to focus on customer lifetime value and a long-term growth portfolio that we know exists because this is the best platform in the business for regulated waste service, particularly in North America.

    我們之所以這樣做,是因為我們認為這是正確的方式。隨著我們展望 2026 年,您將會看到收入有效地重新趨於穩定。但我認為,您在第三季度看到的這種內部管理對於我們專注於客戶終身價值和我們知道存在的長期成長組合是必要的,因為這是受監管廢棄物服務業務中最好的平台,特別是在北美。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • And maybe, Trevor, one -- again, to add to Jim's long answer, I'll extend it just a minute. I mean, listen, at the end of the day, the strategic value of the health care business, Jim and Devina spoke to, in their comments. The other thing I would tell you is when you look at it, it's about 10% of our business when a dust settles, and if you look at the legacy business or the core solid waste business with margins over 38%, SG&A and a soft revenue quarter at 9%. There's a lot of strength in the legacy and core business, and we think that that's going to continue to perform well through the balance of the year next year.

    或許,特雷弗,還有一點──為了補充吉姆的長篇回答,我再補充一分鐘。我的意思是,聽著,歸根結底,吉姆和德維娜在他們的評論中談到了醫療保健行業的戰略價值。我還要告訴你們的是,當你仔細觀察時,你會發現它大約占我們業務的 10%,而如果你看看利潤率超過 38% 的傳統業務或核心固體廢物業務,以及 9% 的銷售、一般及行政費用和疲軟的季度收入,就會發現情況並非如此。公司傳統業務和核心業務實力雄厚,我們認為這些業務在明年剩餘的時間內將繼續保持良好的表現。

  • And again, we're going to get the tailwind, if you will, of all the improvements that the team is working on with regard to the health care business. So that's another reason why we feel so good about in particular, what our free cash flow is going to look like for next year.

    而且,我們將受益於團隊在醫療保健業務方面所做的所有改進。所以,這也是我們對明年自由現金流前景感到非常樂觀的另一個原因。

  • Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst

    Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst

  • All right, thanks so much to all three of you for that. That was really helpful. And then, John, I guess that's a good segue into a follow-up question I had, which is maybe the -- looking at your price cost spread into next year, it sounds like things are kind of tracking well.

    好的,非常感謝你們三位。這真的很有幫助。約翰,我想這正好引出了我接下來的一個問題,那就是——看看你明年的價格成本分佈,聽起來情況進展得還不錯。

  • Now if you look at your pricing, maybe the yield is tracking maybe toward the low end of what you expected this year, but still pretty solid on costs, it sounds like your turnover and incident rates are improving. So you see potential maybe for wage inflation to go down further next year? Just how are you thinking about both pieces of that spread into -- beyond this year?

    現在,如果你看一下你的定價,也許收益率正朝著你今年預期的較低水平發展,但成本仍然相當穩健,聽起來你的營業額和事故率正在改善。所以你認為明年薪資通膨可能會進一步下降?您是如何看待這兩部分內容擴展到今年以後的發展前景的?

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • It's a good point there. Trevor, I spent a good bit of time looking -- I looked at a few different ways. If you look at sort of the yield for the traditional solid waste business for the quarter, it's 4.1%. If you look at core price at 6% and you compare that to CPI, CPI for, at least our math, is right around 2.93%. So I think we continue to see a good spread between core price yield and operating expense pressure. And I think as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, another quarter under 60% with a little momentum on a year-to-date perspective. So we feel good about the cost price spread.

    這一點說得很有道理。特雷弗,我花了不少時間尋找——我從幾個不同的角度進行了研究。如果看本季傳統固體廢棄物業務的收益率,是 4.1%。如果將核心價格設定為 6%,並將其與 CPI 進行比較,那麼根據我們的計算,CPI 約為 2.93%。所以我認為我們仍然可以看到核心價格收益率與營運費用壓力之間存在良好的差距。正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的,我認為另一個季度低於 60%,但從今年迄今為止的情況來看,略有增長勢頭。所以我們對成本價差感到滿意。

  • And I think the other thing we've talked about for the last number of quarters is that our commercial and industrial pricing has always been solid and consistent, but you're seeing continued improvement and consistent levels of pricing across our landfills across our entire post collection network and still in our residential business.

    我認為我們過去幾個季度一直在討論的另一件事是,我們的商業和工業定價一直都很穩定和一致,但您會看到我們整個垃圾收集網絡以及住宅業務的垃圾掩埋場定價持續改善並保持穩定水平。

  • So I think the fact that we've syndicated our our pricing strategy in a more effective way, gives us a lot of confidence going into next year on that spread you mentioned.

    所以我認為,我們以更有效的方式整合了定價策略,這讓我們對您提到的明年價差充滿信心。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You might mention, John, driver turnover because that's incredibly good story.

    約翰,你可以提一下司機更替狀況,因為這是一個非常精彩的故事。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah, that's worth noting. I mean if you look at our risk cost, our safety metrics, there's a number of metrics. Our labor ratios are all benefiting from the fact that we, as a team, have worked really hard over the last couple of years really post-pandemic to get that number, a, under control; and b, to make it -- to improve it quarter in and quarter out. As I mentioned, the driver and technician turnover is at an all-time company low and that shows up in a bunch of different metrics, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks.

    是的,這一點值得注意。我的意思是,如果你看我們的風險成本、我們的安全指標,你會發現有很多指標。我們的勞動力比率都受益於這樣一個事實:在過去的幾年裡,尤其是在疫情爆發後,我們作為一個團隊非常努力地工作,a 控制住了這個數字;b 使它每個季度都得到改善。正如我之前提到的,司機和技術人員的流動率處於公司歷史最低水平,這一點在許多不同的指標中都有體現,正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的那樣。

  • Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst

    Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst

  • All right. Really appreciate it. And Devina, and my congratulations to you as well.

    好的。真的很感激。還有德維娜,也祝賀你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

    東尼卡普蘭,摩根士丹利。

  • Toni Kaplan - Analyst

    Toni Kaplan - Analyst

  • I was hoping you could talk a little bit more on what's going on with yield and also just in the quarter, but also looking into 2026, how your conversations with customers have been going at the end of the year here. Thanks.

    我希望您能再多談談收益率方面的情況,以及本季的情況,同時也展望一下 2026 年,以及您與客戶在年底的溝通情況。謝謝。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, I would say yield is -- we talked about with yield, and I mentioned a couple of them earlier. MSW was very strong at 6.7%, commercial at 4.7%, resi, 6.5%. So we're happy with yield and core price. We tend to focus on both. And I think the primary focus with respect to pricing is to cover our costs and then tack on some margin over and above that. And I think that what we're showing, whether you look at -- when you look at our margin results, even with some of the headwinds that we faced, I believe that's really showing up there.

    嗯,我想說收益率是──我們討論過收益率,我之前也提到過幾個。都市固體廢棄物佔 6.7%,商業用地佔 4.7%,住宅用地佔 6.5%。所以我們對殖利率和核心價格都很滿意。我們往往兩者都會關注。我認為定價方面的主要重點是覆蓋成本,然後在此基礎上增加一些利潤。我認為,無論你看我們的利潤率結果,即使考慮到我們面臨的一些不利因素,我相信這一點都得到了充分體現。

  • So I don't know that, that answers your question. But right now, we're -- we don't just focus on the absolute number as our cost comes down. We've said all along that our yield will tick down slightly. So -- but we just want to make sure we maintain that delta between cost and price.

    所以我不知道,這回答了你的問題。但現在,我們——我們不僅僅關注絕對數字,因為我們的成本正在下降。我們一直都說,我們的收益率會略有下降。所以——但我們只是想確保成本和價格之間的差距保持不變。

  • Toni Kaplan - Analyst

    Toni Kaplan - Analyst

  • Got it. Yes. I was curious on the industrial yield. I think it was like the lowest since COVID, and I think you've talked about mix and temporary roll-off being a little bit weak in past quarters. I know you said it was a little bit better this quarter, but were those still similar drivers? Or is like, I guess, on the industrial one, was there a reason why 2.3 was -- we saw a lower --

    知道了。是的。我對工業產量很有興趣。我認為這是自新冠疫情以來的最低水平,而且我認為您在過去幾個季度也提到過產品組合和臨時性需求下降的情況有些疲軟。我知道您說過這季度情況略有好轉,但那些驅動因素是否仍然類似?或者說,我想,就工業領域而言,2.3 這個數字為什麼會這麼低——我們看到的是一個較低的數字。--

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • I think you picked it off, Toni. I think a few things are affecting that. One, in terms of -- we mentioned that some of the volume increases coming from the health care side as we internalize some of that, but to your point, the temporary business has actually rebounded a little bit is less negative. And historically, that's lower priced than permanent work, but that doesn't mean it's not as profitable. So that's one I would certainly point to.

    我覺得是你挑出來的,東尼。我認為有幾個因素影響了這種情況。第一,就我們提到的情況而言——我們提到,隨著我們將部分業務內部化,醫療保健方面的業務量有所增加,但正如您所說,臨時業務實際上已經略有反彈,情況並沒有那麼糟糕。從歷史上看,這種工作的價格比永久性工作低,但這並不意味著它的利潤就不高。所以這是我肯定會指出的一點。

  • And I think the other thing we saw is a little uptick in our permanent [hawls] (technical difficulty) from some of our permanent customers, not meaningfully, but it was an uptick. But that is what's affecting the yield. But I think as Jim mentioned, when you look at our core price at 5.7% for Industrial and the overall margin in our collection and disposal business at 38.4%, I think that the math flips out pretty well.

    而且我認為我們看到的另一件事是,我們的一些老客戶遇到的技術難題略有增加,雖然增幅不大,但確實有所增加。但這正是影響產量的原因。但我認為正如吉姆所提到的那樣,當你看到我們工業業務的核心價格為 5.7%,以及我們收集和處置業務的整體利潤率為 38.4% 時,我認為計算結果相當不錯。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • May also be a bit a mix issue with respect to national accounts when you look at yields. So -- and that's why core price is an important metric for us to look at also, yes.

    從國民帳的角度來看收益率,可能也存在一些混合問題。所以——這也是為什麼核心價格也是我們需要關注的重要指標,是的。

  • Toni Kaplan - Analyst

    Toni Kaplan - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then just as a follow-up, when you think about the M&A pipeline, how is that looking? How are valuations looking? And should we expect '26 to be a bigger year or still digesting the health care business? Just where are we on M&A strategy?

    好的。偉大的。那麼,作為後續問題,您認為併購專案進度如何?估值情況如何?我們應該預期 2026 年會是成長更快的一年,還是仍需要消化醫療保健產業的變化?我們的併購策略目前處於什麼階段?

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Well, I think you heard a good bit of color from Jim and Devina on what we're doing in health care and where we are sort of any integration there. We made a big step. The business is now fully integrated into our 16 areas. So we feel good about the momentum there.

    我想你已經從吉姆和德維娜那裡聽到了不少關於我們在醫療保健領域所做的事情以及我們在該領域的整合情況的詳細介紹。我們邁出了重要一步。業務現已完全融入我們的16個領域。所以我們對目前的勢頭感到樂觀。

  • Separately, on the traditional solid waste side, I think we've closed about $450 million year-to-date, and we said that number could be as big as $500 million by the end of the year. And it could still be we've got a handful of transactions that are out there that could close in Q4 or could roll into next year.

    另外,在傳統固體廢棄物處理方面,我認為我們今年迄今已經完成了約 4.5 億美元的交易,我們曾表示到年底這個數字可能會達到 5 億美元。而且,我們可能還有一些交易正在籌備中,這些交易可能會在第四季完成,也可能要等到明年才能完成。

  • I think with regard to '26, sitting here today, I think probably somewhere in the normal $100 million to $200 million is what we're looking at now. But as we've demonstrated over the last couple of years, when the right strategic solid waste asset pops up, we've certainly got the capacity to do that. We're going to take the same approach into next year.

    就 2026 年而言,我認為,就目前的情況來看,我們預計金額可能會在正常的 1 億到 2 億美元之間。但正如我們在過去幾年中所證明的那樣,當出現合適的戰略性固體廢物資產時,我們當然有能力做到這一點。明年我們將繼續採取同樣的做法。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And I think, John, maybe one last add there. When you think about M&A for next year, it really brings into the conversation capital allocation and what does capital allocation look like next year. We'll give you some specifics on it when we get to January. But $3.8 billion free cash flow as we really harvest the cash from the sustainability businesses in the health care solutions and then continue to drive good strong cash from our legacy business.

    約翰,我覺得或許可以再補充一點。當你思考明年的併購時,就會牽涉到資本配置以及明年的資本配置會是什麼樣子。等到一月的時候,我們會給予更具體的說明。但隨著我們從醫療保健解決方案的可持續發展業務中真正獲取現金,並繼續從我們的傳統業務中推動強勁的現金流,我們將擁有 38 億美元的自由現金流。

  • It probably indicates that you're going to see, obviously, the dividend will be -- come out of that first, but there could be some M&A and very likely will be a substantial share repurchase next year. We'll figure out exactly what that number is going to be when we get to July -- to (technical difficulty) months.

    這可能表明,很明顯,股息將會——首先從股息中支出,但可能會有一些併購,而且明年很可能會有大規模的股票回購。等到七月(技術上困難)的時候,我們就能準確地算出這個數字是多少了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Schumm, TD Cowen.

    吉姆·舒姆,TD Cowen。

  • James Schumm - Analyst

    James Schumm - Analyst

  • I was wondering on the WM Health care, would you be able to give us a sense of how the medical waste is performing and how the document destruction businesses are performing?

    我想了解一下 WM Health care 的情況,您能否介紹一下醫療廢棄物處理和文件銷毀業務的運作情況?

  • Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

    Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

  • Well, two things there. First of all, addressing a little bit of the remarks that Devina made earlier regarding some of the credits we've issued to the customers. Those credits have been primarily on the regulated medical waste side of the business. A lot of that is acknowledging frustration over the years with the ERP implementation. It has been maintaining our customer-first focus there and making sure that we establish a firm foundation from which to grow.

    嗯,有兩件事。首先,我想稍微回應一下 Devina 之前對我們向客戶發放的一些信用額度所發表的評論。這些積分主要來自受監管的醫療廢棄物處理業務。這很大程度上反映了多年來對 ERP 系統實施的不滿。我們一直堅持以客戶為先的原則,並確保我們建立起堅實的發展基礎。

  • We have experienced a little bit of churn there on the hospital side of the business. However, additional customers continues to be pretty strong. I will say, I think it's worth noting that we've renewed nearly $200 million worth of business on our large customers there and that average PI has been in the low double digits. So I think we have a good runway there. And as we stabilize that side of the business, and we have a firm foundation to grow, you'll see those PIs begin to realize towards the back half of 2026.

    我們在醫院業務方面經歷了一些人員變動。然而,新增客戶數量依然相當強勁。我想說的是,我認為值得一提的是,我們已經與當地的大客戶續簽了價值近 2 億美元的業務,而且平均 PI 值一直保持在兩位數的低點。所以我覺得我們在這方面很有希望。隨著我們穩定了業務的這一方面,並且我們有了堅實的成長基礎,您將會看到這些 PI 將在 2026 年下半年開始實現。

  • On the auto shred side, the purge business gave us a little bit of challenge at the beginning of the year. That was mostly having to do with disconnects between commercial and operations. We fixed those we've seen us bringing that high-margin business back in line.

    在汽車粉碎業務方面,年初時清理業務給我們帶來了一些挑戰。這主要是由於商業和營運之間的脫節造成的。我們已經解決了那些問題,我們看到我們正在讓高利潤業務重回正軌。

  • And the auto shred, actually, this is the place where we've implemented our sales coverage optimization the soonest, the fastest. And we're seeing a lot of productivity in terms of pipeline, rate of closure and we like what we're seeing there. Quite frankly, the whole melting ice cube concern is no -- not that much of a concern for us anymore.

    實際上,自動碎紙機是我們最快、最有效地實施銷售覆蓋範圍最佳化方案的地方。我們看到,在專案儲備和成交率方面,生產效率都大幅提高,我們對目前的狀況很滿意。坦白說,冰塊融化的問題對我們來說已經不再是件大事了。

  • James Schumm - Analyst

    James Schumm - Analyst

  • Okay. And on the positive side, you noticed -- you noted like basically legacy Stericycle volumes going into your landfills. Are there any -- is there any way you could quantify that benefit for us?

    好的。從積極的方面來看,您注意到——您注意到基本上是以前的 Stericycle 的垃圾被送進了您的垃圾掩埋場。是否有任何方法可以量化這種好處?

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So basically, when we think about how we outlined synergy value, we talked about $80 million to $100 million in 2025 of synergy value. You can think of it being about 1/5 of the synergy realization to the year.

    所以基本上,當我們考慮如何概述協同效應價值時,我們談到了到 2025 年協同效應價值將達到 8,000 萬美元至 1 億美元。你可以把它看作是全年協同效應實現的五分之一左右。

  • James Schumm - Analyst

    James Schumm - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just last one for me. On the hazardous waste landfill -- like I just want to make sure I understand correctly, you were pursuing an incremental hazardous waste landfill. Is that right that didn't come to fruition? Or are you closing an existing hazardous waste landfill? And then can you just -- can you just -- I forget how many -- you guys have four or five hazardous landfills, where do you stand there? Thanks.

    好的。最後,我還要再來一個。關於危險廢棄物掩埋場——我只是想確認我的理解是否正確,你們正在尋求逐步增加危險廢棄物掩埋場。那是沒能實現的計畫嗎?或者,你們是要關閉現有的危險廢棄物掩埋場?然後,你能不能──你能不能──我忘了你們有多少個──你們有四、五個危險垃圾掩埋場,你們對此持什麼立場?謝謝。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • The answer to the question is that the site that we're referencing that was shuttered has actually not been operational. We've kept it on life support, if you will, as Devina mentioned, we were pursuing permit expansion. So it's not a loss from our existing portfolio. It hasn't been operating in a meaningful way in a number of years.

    這個問題的答案是,我們所提到的那個被關閉的網站實際上並沒有運作。如德維娜所言,我們一直維持著它的生命線,我們一直在尋求擴大許可證範圍。所以這不會造成我們現有投資組合的損失。它已經多年沒有進行有效的運作了。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • But it is in the count. We've always disclosed that we have five hazardous waste landfills. We will now disclose that we have four.

    但這筆錢已經算進去了。我們一直以來都公開披露我們有五個危險廢物掩埋場。現在我們透露,我們有四台。

  • James Schumm - Analyst

    James Schumm - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Thank you, and good luck to you, Devina. Thanks for everything.

    好的。偉大的。謝謝你,也祝你好運,德維娜。謝謝你的一切。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

    Rob Wertheimer,Melius Research。

  • Rob Wertheimer - Analyst

    Rob Wertheimer - Analyst

  • I just had a quick clarification on an earlier comment with respect to Healthcare Solutions doing more traditional waste. I think you said, I guess you could call it cross-selling. Sound a whole lot like cross-selling. So I was wondering if I missed a subtlety there. And then just more generally, how does your cross-selling sales effort ramp up over time?

    我只是想就之前關於醫療保健解決方案處理較傳統廢棄物處理方式的評論做個簡單的澄清。我想你說過,我猜你可以稱之為交叉銷售。聽起來很像交叉銷售。所以我想知道我是不是錯過了什麼微妙之處。更普遍地說,隨著時間的推移,您的交叉銷售工作是如何逐步加強的?

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. You're probably referring to the comment I made about our industrial volumes and how we were taking volumes from what would have been under the old company going to a competitor and then internalizing them into us. So that's really what that is. our solid waste volumes coming to us in the industrial line of business through internalization of that volume.

    是的。你可能指的是我之前關於我們工業產量的評論,以及我們如何將原本屬於老公司、流向競爭對手的產量轉移到我們公司內部。所以,這就是問題的癥結所在。我們工業業務部門透過內部處理的方式接收固體廢棄物。

  • Rob Wertheimer - Analyst

    Rob Wertheimer - Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. And then just in general, your progress on cross-selling on health care?

    好的。完美的。那麼,總的來說,您在醫療保健交叉銷售方面取得了哪些進展?

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • It's been very strong. There are some great examples where we've had exactly what we've talked about, where the national accounts business platform for WM has been a long success story for us. But the health care sector was one of those where we were underrepresented relative to our share in other important segments of our customer base. And we've seen great success in leveraging, I would say, the WMHS customer base in order to extend traditional solid waste performance across that national accounts platform.

    它一直非常強勁。有一些很好的例子,我們完全按照我們所說的做了,WM 的全國客戶業務平台對我們來說一直是一個長期的成功案例。但醫療保健行業是我們客戶群中份額相對較低的行業之一,與其他重要客戶群相比,我們在該行業的份額明顯偏低。我們已經看到,利用 WMHS 的客戶群,將傳統的固體廢棄物處理服務擴展到全國客戶平台,取得了巨大的成功。

  • And then we've also seen success the other way, where we've taken legacy WM customers and thought about shred opportunities or even using the health care solutions platform in order to deepen the customer relationship. I think what's really important there is that when you become that single source provider for a customer, that customer's relationship will be longer and provide incremental value. So that's another leg of that focus on customer lifetime value that we've been talking about.

    然後,我們也看到了另一種成功方式,即我們與傳統的 WM 客戶探討了文件銷毀機會,甚至利用醫療保健解決方案平台來加深客戶關係。我認為真正重要的是,當你成為客戶的單一來源供應商時,與客戶的合作關係將會更長久,並帶來更多價值。這就是我們一直在談論的關注客戶終身價值的另一個面向。

  • Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

    Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

  • Maybe, Rob, one more finer point there. Jim referenced in his script, one particular customer that has increased their annual spend by about $5 million across their multistate network. But that's certainly an evidence of cross-sell there.

    羅布,或許還有一點要注意。吉姆在他的劇本中提到了一位特殊的客戶,該客戶在其跨州網路中每年的支出增加了約 500 萬美元。但這無疑是交叉銷售的證據。

  • By the way, there are several customers that have increased our spend in the seven-figure annual revenue range with us. But maybe what's even more exciting is that we're also seeing cross-sell in our independent RMW shred it, small and medium-sized customers.

    順便一提,有好幾位客戶的年收入都達到了七位數,增加了我們在這裡的支出。但或許更令人興奮的是,我們也在獨立的 RMW 碎紙機客戶(中小客戶)中看到了交叉銷售。

  • We've actually completed cross-sales for over 7,000 customers. Now those are small customers, but those end up becoming the backbone. And what we've seen is that customer split is basically 50-50 between WM and Stericycle original books of business.

    我們實際上已經為超過 7,000 位客戶完成了交叉銷售。現在這些客戶雖然規模不大,但最後卻成為了公司的中流砥柱。我們看到的情況是,WM 和 Stericycle 的原有業務客戶數量基本上各佔 50%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

    Faiza Alwy,德意志銀行。

  • Faiza Alwy - Analyst

    Faiza Alwy - Analyst

  • I wanted to follow up on the same topic. It seems like you're talking about success around cross-selling. But at the same time, you're also talking about higher churn on the health care side. So I'm just curious if you could give us a bit more color on what type of -- is there a specific type of customer, maybe a region or like where are you seeing other strength with cross-selling versus where you're seeing higher churn?

    我想就同一話題繼續探討。看來你是在談論交叉銷售方面的成功。但同時,你也提到了醫療保健領域更高的員工流動率。所以我很好奇,您能否更詳細地介紹一下——是否有特定類型的客戶,或者某個地區,或者您在哪些方面看到了交叉銷售的優勢,而哪些方面的客戶流失率較高?

  • Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

    Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

  • Well, the success -- Faiza, if I understood your question correctly, the success that we're seeing on cross-sell is across all of the channels. I just mentioned 7,000 customers that we've cross-sell. Those are small and medium-sized customers. We've also had some success with some of the larger, more complex hospital networks.

    嗯,Faiza,如果我理解你的問題沒錯的話,我們在交叉銷售方面取得的成功是在所有管道都實現的。我剛才提到了我們已經向 7000 位客戶進行了交叉銷售。這些都是中小客戶。我們也與一些規模更大、結構更複雜的醫院網絡取得了一些成功。

  • The churn that we've seen in the hospital side really relates to those customers that have experienced the most frustration over the last couple of years. They were the ones that maybe weren't getting their bills correctly earlier in the Monarch, which is what they used to call their project implementation back in late 2023 and early '24.

    我們在醫院方面看到的客戶流失,實際上與過去幾年中那些最感到沮喪的客戶有關。他們可能是在「君主計劃」(他們在 2023 年末和 2024 年初實施該計劃時對該計劃的稱呼)早期沒有正確收到賬單的人。

  • And so we've seen some uptick there. But we've also seen our addition of customers on the hospital side remain pretty healthy.

    所以我們看到這方面有所回升。但我們也看到,我們在醫院方面的客戶成長情況依然相當健康。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think too, Rafa, it's worth mentioning that -- okay. So yes, we've seen some churn here. But I mentioned kind of in my long answer there that this network that Stericycle has is unsurpassed. Nobody is close to this network. So while we may have seen a bit of churn, it's not extraordinary churn by any stretch.

    我也覺得,拉法,這一點值得一提——好的。是的,我們這裡確實出現了一些人員流動。但我之前在長篇回答中提到過,Stericycle 的這個網絡是無與倫比的。沒有人接近這個網路。所以,雖然我們可能看到了一些人員流動,但這絕對不是異常劇烈的人員流動。

  • And so once we get this ERP ironed out, once we really bring this entire business under us, which we've done now, John mentioned bringing it into our operational structure in our 16 areas, I think you can expect to see all those numbers that you've been focused on that we've been focusing on as well, which is 5% to 6% revenue growth.

    所以,一旦我們把這個 ERP 系統完善好,一旦我們真正把整個業務納入我們的管理之下(我們現在已經做到了,約翰提到要把它整合到我們 16 個領域的運營結構中),我認為你們可以期待看到你們一直關注的、也是我們一直關注的那些數字,也就是 5% 到 6% 的收入增長。

  • And the synergy is really showing up as opposed to being a little bit obscured by the top line, all of that will begin to show. And then I guess, John's point is an important one, too, which is again, this is 10% of our business. The 90% is killing it. So we're overall pleased with the way things have progressed.

    而且,協同效應正在逐漸顯現,而不是像之前那樣被營收數據所掩蓋,所有這些都將開始顯現出來。然後,我想約翰的觀點也很重要,那就是,這占我們業務的 10%。90%的人正在扼殺牠。總的來說,我們對事情的進展感到滿意。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • I think the only thing I'd add to that, Jim, and I mentioned earlier is worth highlighting here is the service is good. I mean, when we look at the health care portfolio of services. Rafa and the entire team have done a nice job, as I mentioned, improving one KPI, which is on-time delivery. So service, if it were at challenges, the harder one is hard to fix. In this case, we have the benefit of providing solid service.

    吉姆,我覺得我唯一要補充的是,我之前也提到過,值得在這裡強調的是,服務很好。我的意思是,當我們審視醫療保健服務組合時。正如我之前提到的,拉法和整個團隊做得很好,提高了一項關鍵績效指標,即準時交付率。所以,如果服務面臨挑戰,那麼最難解決的問題就是最棘手的問題。在這種情況下,我們的優勢在於能夠提供可靠的服務。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think their numbers end up being better than our own numbers on the legacy side.

    我認為他們在傳統業務方面的最終數據比我們自己的數據更好。

  • Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

    Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

  • And by the way, that churn number is also better on that segment than on the legacy side anyway. Yeah.

    順便說一句,這個細分市場的客戶流失率也比傳統市場好。是的。

  • Faiza Alwy - Analyst

    Faiza Alwy - Analyst

  • Understood. Very helpful. And then just maybe pivoting to the core business, you mentioned lower maintenance, lower risk management costs. So how much more runway do you think you have in this as we look ahead to 2026 and beyond?

    明白了。非常有幫助。然後,或許可以轉向核心業務,您提到了較低的維護成本和較低的風險管理成本。那麼,展望2026年及以後,你認為我們在這方面還有多少發展空間?

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • So I would tell you, there wasn't that many handful of years ago, we were at the 63%-plus range and gradually and systematically we've worked our way down under 62%, 61% and now under 60%. And we think that's obviously a pretty big accomplishment for us. To answer your question, is there room to run there? Absolutely. I think you've seen the momentum from above 60% to below 60%. We have some numbers aspirationally over the next handful of years that we'd like to achieve that are better than the 59.4% that we printed this quarter.

    所以我想告訴你,就在幾年前,我們的感染率還在 63% 以上,然後我們逐漸有條不紊地降到了 62% 以下、61% 以下,現在又降到了 60% 以下。我們認為這顯然對我們來說是一項相當大的成就。回答你的問題,那裡有奔跑的空間嗎?絕對地。我認為你已經看到了從 60% 以上到 60% 以下的趨勢。在未來幾年裡,我們有一些雄心勃勃的目標數字,希望能夠實現,這些數字比我們本季實現的 59.4% 更好。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think it's going to require. So John, to your point, it's going to require a different way of doing business. And that -- and so John has a team that's working on this. So it's not just run fast or jump higher. It's doing things differently than we've done them. So if all we're doing is just doing this trying to squeeze dollars out of the existing business the same way, then I would argue, yes, we probably squeezed a lot of those SG&A dollars out and the OpEx dollars out.

    我認為這需要。所以約翰,你說得對,這需要一種不同的經營方式。所以——約翰有一個團隊正在負責這項工作。所以,關鍵不在於跑得快還是跳得高。它的做法和我們以往的做法不同。所以,如果我們只是以同樣的方式從現有業務中榨取利潤,那麼我認為,是的,我們可能確實榨取了許多銷售、管理及行政費用和營運費用。

  • But in order to get to those aspirational figures that John's referred to, I think you'll see us doing things a bit differently. That means using technology to supplement our operations and using AI, which every company is talking about these days, to replace labor that leaves us.

    但為了達到約翰所說的那些令人嚮往的目標,我認為你會看到我們採取一些不同的做法。這意味著要利用科技來補充我們的運營,並利用人工智慧(如今每家公司都在談論人工智慧)來取代離職的勞動力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

    Tami Zakaria,摩根大通。

  • Tami Zakaria - Analyst

    Tami Zakaria - Analyst

  • One follow-up question on the topic of churn. I found your comments quite interesting. Could you comment on where these customers that are churning are going to? The reason I asked that question and like you mentioned earlier, Stericycle had very strong market share. Hence, I'm curious, are they turning for price, network, something else?

    關於客戶流失問題,還有一個後續問題。我覺得你的評論很有意思。您能否談談這些流失的客戶都去了哪裡?我之所以問這個問題,正如你之前提到的,是因為 Stericycle 擁有非常強大的市場份額。因此,我很好奇,他們是因為價格、網路還是其他原因而轉向其他選擇?

  • And related to that, would you expect to win some of these customers back once the ERP is in a good spot? Or are these customers not profitable enough to go after?

    與此相關的是,一旦 ERP 系統運作良好,您是否預期能夠贏回部分客戶?或者說,這些客戶的利潤不夠高,不值得爭取?

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, there's a lot in that question. I'm going to try to give you some nuggets that you can take away here. But first and foremost, we're having exit interviews with those customers. And by the way, a lot of times, what we're losing is not the entire customer but a piece of the customer. And the reason for that is that there is no other competitor out there that can actually handle the entire network of hospitals that is associated with the customer.

    嗯,這個問題包含的資訊量很大。我打算給你分享一些你可以藉鏡的實用技巧。但首先,我們要對這些客戶進行離職面談。順便說一句,很多時候,我們失去的不是整個客戶,而是客戶的一部分。原因在於,目前還沒有其他競爭對手能夠真正處理與該客戶相關的整個醫院網路。

  • And so -- when you ask the question, do we have the ability to go back and gain that customer? The answer is absolutely yes, because they're going to want to gravitate back to a single provider.

    所以——當你問這個問題時,我們是否有能力重新贏得這位客戶?答案絕對是肯定的,因為他們會傾向於重新選擇單一的服務提供者。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Konark Gupta, Scotia Capital.

    科納克·古普塔,豐業資本。

  • Konark Gupta - Analyst

    Konark Gupta - Analyst

  • Just want to address the same 10% business, Jim, you talked about it's like important in the grand scheme of things. But your SG&A intensity at health care, if I look at the GAAP versus the legacy business, I think it stood at 10 points. In Q3, you were 12% or 12 points in Q2, 14 points in Q1. I mean it's been coming down sequentially the gap versus legacy. And I think at this clip, I mean, you might hit your target -- underlying target for synergy in the next few quarters, perhaps.

    吉姆,我只想再談談你剛才提到的那10%的業務,它在大局中非常重要。但是,如果我比較 GAAP 和傳統業務,你們醫療保健產業的 SG&A 強度為 10 個百分點。第三季度,你的得分是 12%,第二季是 12 分,第一季是 14 分。我的意思是,它與傳統技術之間的差距一直在逐漸縮小。我認為照目前的速度,你們或許能在未來幾季實現綜效的目標。

  • So I just wanted to get the sense of, are we thinking it correctly that the SG&A intensity is coming down quite nicely here and it's going to hit your targets soon enough? Or is there something else in the mix that has held to SG&A intensity much faster in the first three quarters?

    所以我想確認一下,我們是不是可以這樣理解:銷售、管理及行政費用強度正在穩定下降,很快就能達到你們的目標?或者,是否有其他因素導致銷售、一般及行政費用在前三個季度更快維持在較高水準?

  • Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

    Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

  • Yeah. Well, I would say to that, I mean, just to frame it maybe in more pointed fashion, I think what you've seen is since Q3 of last year, you've seen that SG&A go down by essentially 700 basis points, which is a pretty dramatic shift down. Now, there were some parts of that business that were clearly low-hanging fruit. We are now taking a much more surgical approach to how we do that.

    是的。嗯,我想說的是,為了更明確地表達我的觀點,我認為你們已經看到,自去年第三季以來,銷售、一般及行政費用下降了大約 700 個基點,這是一個相當大的下降幅度。當然,這項業務中有些部分顯然是唾手可得的。我們現在採取了更精準的方法來解決這個問題。

  • So particularly so we can do two things: one, maintain the improvement and the fixes that we are doing on the ERP one, change a little bit of the customer care level approach that we're using with that larger complex customer base. And then facilitate more collaboration across the sales and operations side of the business.

    因此,我們尤其可以做兩件事:一是保持我們在 ERP 系統上所做的改進和修復,二是稍微改變一下我們針對更大更複雜的客戶群所使用的客戶服務水平方法。然後促進公司銷售和營運部門之間的更多協作。

  • So we saw a really good improvement in 2025. We're going to see that improve in 2026, and then taper down. But I think what we've said is over the -- we see, over the three-year horizon, we are intended to take that down to 17%. And we think we're going to end up there, and there's opportunities for more.

    因此,我們看到2025年情況有了很大的改善。我們預計這種情況會在 2026 年有所改善,然後逐漸下降。但我認為我們已經說過,在三年的時間裡,我們的目標是將這一比例降至 17%。我們認為我們最終會達到那個目標,而且還有更多的機會。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • By the way, I want to add there is that, that SG&A performance is even more impressive then Rafa gives a credit there because the softness on the top line. So -- and we're measuring it as a percent of revenue there. So Rafa and his team have made huge progress on the cost side of this.

    順便說一句,我想補充一點,SG&A 的表現甚至比拉法給的評價還要令人印象深刻,因為頂線的柔軟度很高。所以——我們用佔收入的百分比來衡量它。所以拉法和他的團隊在成本控制方面取得了巨大進展。

  • And as we have discussed with the top line, there's been some things that some of them are one-timers, some of them are recoverable. But as we see top line really start to tick back up, that improves SG&A as a percent of revenue as well.

    正如我們之前討論過的,有些事情是一次性的,有些事情是可以挽回的。但隨著營收開始真正回升,銷售、管理及行政費用佔營收的百分比也會隨之改善。

  • Konark Gupta - Analyst

    Konark Gupta - Analyst

  • I appreciate the color on that. Thanks. And if I can follow up on the recycled commodities. I think you guys see a 35% decline in Q3. What are you seeing now based on the book that you are left with? What kind of basket of commodity prices you're looking at heading into Q4 or early '26?

    我喜歡它的顏色。謝謝。如果我能跟進回收商品的情況就更好了。我認為你們預計第三季將下降 35%。根據你現在手上的這本書,你看到了什麼?您預計到第四季或 2026 年初,各類商品價格會呈現怎樣的走勢?

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Well, as you all saw, commodity prices have dipped and a couple of reasons for that. If you're looking at OCC prices, we've seen some mills closed down domestically, about 10% of capacity has been taken out, and we're seeing weaker box demand. So certainly, if the economy picks back up and we see more consumer spending, we would see an uptick in OCC prices. And you heard my previous comments related to plastics. Plastics are at all-time lows.

    如大家所見,大宗商品價格下跌,這有兩個原因。如果你關注OCC價格,我們看到國內一些工廠已經關閉,大約10%的產能被削減,而且我們看到紙箱需求疲軟。因此,如果經濟復甦,消費支出增加,OCC價格肯定會上漲。你們也聽到我之前關於塑膠的評論了。塑膠使用量處於歷史低點。

  • But when you look at commodity price trends, typically from peak to trough, roughly 12 to 24 months, so we would expect a bit of a bounce back sometime in 2026. We're not expecting that in Q4 2025. We're expecting commodity prices to remain around that $65 to $68 a ton basket, and that's what has been included in our recent update.

    但從大宗商品價格走勢來看,通常從高峰到谷底大約需要 12 到 24 個月,因此我們預計 2026 年某個時候會出現一些反彈。我們預計2025年第四季不會出現這種情況。我們預計大宗商品價格將維持在每噸 65 至 68 美元左右,這也是我們最近的更新中所包含的內容。

  • But overall, still feel very optimistic about the investments we've made. We've been taking out labor out of our facilities, which is good in any commodity price environment, and certainly creating cleaner material, which we can sell at a higher price point.

    但總的來說,我仍然對我們所做的投資感到非常樂觀。我們一直在減少工廠的勞動力投入,這在任何商品價格環境下都是好事,而且肯定能生產出更乾淨的材料,我們可以以更高的價格出售。

  • Konark Gupta - Analyst

    Konark Gupta - Analyst

  • Okay. That's great for thanks for the color and time and all the best to you, Devina and David.

    好的。非常感謝你們的色彩和時間,祝你們一切順利,Devina 和 David。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin Chiang, CIBC.

    Kevin Chiang,加拿大帝國商業銀行。

  • Kevin Chiang - Analyst

    Kevin Chiang - Analyst

  • Echoing the congratulations, Devina, best of luck in your future endeavors. Maybe just on RNG, I think at the Investor Day, you had mentioned, I guess, in 2026, you had secured about 30% of the volume at a fixed price, WM prices have moved up a little bit here in Q4. Just wondering if that ratio has changed as we think about the fixed versus variable into next year?

    向德維娜致以衷心的祝賀,祝你未來一切順利。或許只是關於 RNG,我想在投資者日上,您提到過,我猜,在 2026 年,您以固定價格鎖定了大約 30% 的交易量,WM 的價格在第四季度略有上漲。我想知道,當我們考慮明年固定收益與浮動收益的比例時,這個比例是否有變化?

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So for 2026, we've presold about 45% of our offtake, so it's up from our last update. And just to give you a balance, what we're anticipating is a little less than half of that will be sold in the transportation market and a little more than 50% will be sold in the voluntary market.

    因此,2026 年,我們已經預售了約 45% 的訂單,比上次更新的數據有所增長。為了平衡一下,我們預計其中略低於一半的份額將在運輸市場售出,略高於 50% 的份額將在自願市場售出。

  • 2026 will be a year where we will fully allocate the -- our fleet to WM's RNG production. We're seeing RIN prices for 2026 in the -- again, $220 million to $230 million range and still seeing some buyers on the voluntary market, and we're making some headway there.

    2026 年,我們將把我們的整個船隊投入到 WM 的 RNG 生產中。我們看到 2026 年的 RIN 價格再次在 2.2 億美元至 2.3 億美元之間,並且仍然看到一些買家在自願市場上,我們在這方面取得了一些進展。

  • Kevin Chiang - Analyst

    Kevin Chiang - Analyst

  • Okay. That's super helpful in the update. And just -- I know you've had a lot of questions on Healthcare here. Maybe if I just ask a bigger picture question. When you look at the price elasticity of this business, as you try to put through price increases and pursue your revenue strategy. Is it -- is it in line with what we would have thought a year ago?

    好的。這次更新非常有幫助。我知道你們這裡有很多關於醫療保健方面的問題。也許我應該問一個更宏觀的問題。當你在嘗試漲價並追求收入策略時,你需要考慮該業務的價格彈性。這——這與我們一年前的想法一致嗎?

  • And maybe how does it compare to solid waste as you've had this under your belt, just interested from a higher level perspective, just how you view the pricing and demand dynamics just having on this almost a year now?

    那麼,您覺得固體廢棄物處理與固體廢棄物處理相比如何呢?您在固體廢棄物處理方面經驗豐富,只是想從更高的層面上了解一下,您如何看待價格和需求動態?我從事這項工作已經快一年了。

  • Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

    Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

  • Well, lots has happened in that year. I think what I would say is we start maybe with our long-term vision and then move backwards. We've talked about that maybe aspiration of 5% to 6% growth overall being realizable, long term.

    那一年發生了很多事。我認為我們應該先從長遠願景入手,然後再倒推回去。我們討論過,從長遠來看,整體成長 5% 到 6% 的目標或許是可以實現的。

  • What we found is that, as Devina mentioned, we're taking a slower, more deliberate approach with that, particularly in the price increase because the last thing you want to do is put a PI through to a customer, particularly a large complex customer that has been going through a tremendous amount of frustration with their billing with our reporting over the last couple of years.

    正如德維娜所提到的那樣,我們發現,我們在這方面採取了一種更緩慢、更謹慎的方式,尤其是在價格上漲方面,因為你最不想做的就是讓客戶,特別是那些在過去幾年裡因我們的報告而對賬單感到非常沮喪的大型複雜客戶,承擔起責任。

  • That said, once we have offered that credit and baseline that customer better, we don't see any reason to doubt that we're going to be able to put in the particular PIs increase that we are entitled to. And I would just point you once again to the example I gave earlier about some of the renewals we've had about $200 million worth of that business that we've been able to renew with an average low double-digit PI.

    也就是說,一旦我們提供了信貸並提高了客戶的基準,我們就沒有任何理由懷疑我們能夠實現我們有權獲得的特定PI成長。我再次向你們指出我之前舉的例子,我們成功續簽了價值約 2 億美元的業務,平均續約率只有兩位數。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I would just double down on that and say there are some really important fundamentals there. One, is the secular trend that we've discussed. So from a supply and demand perspective, the demand for our business is just going to continue to grow. Two, is the quality of the customer service, the quality of the customer service, our on-time delivery, all of that is strong. And that's really supported by a best-in-class Net Promoter Score for that part of the business.

    我只想再次強調這一點,我認為這裡面確實包含一些非常重要的基本要素。第一,就是我們討論過的長期趨勢。因此,從供需關係的角度來看,對我們業務的需求只會持續成長。第二點是客戶服務質量,客戶服務品質、準時交貨率等等,這些方面都很強。而該業務板塊一流的淨推薦值也印證了這一點。

  • And then three, I just think of it in terms of the strong execution, data-driven approach that WM has established and that we show quarter in and quarter out for the collection and disposal business, we're going to be able to leverage that know-how for this business segment. We're just going through this period of housekeeping, I would call it, that is appropriate and doing the right thing for our customers.

    第三,我認為,WM 已經建立了強大的執行力和數據驅動的方法,我們每個季度都在收集和處置業務中證明了這一點,我們將能夠利用這種專業知識來發展這個業務領域。我們目前正處於一個整頓階段,我稱之為“內部整頓”,這是恰當的,也是在為我們的客戶做正確的事情。

  • So I think those things bolster our confidence in that long-term price outlook for the business. And I think we're more confident in that today than we were a year ago.

    所以我認為這些因素增強了我們對公司長期價格前景的信心。而且我認為,我們現在對此比一年前更有信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Shlomo Rosenbaum, Stifel.

    Shlomo Rosenbaum,Stifel。

  • Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

    Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

  • I wanted to talk a little bit about the industrial volumes turning up. And if you exclude the internalization of the health care solutions, are we starting to see an uptick just in general? Do you feel like we're just bouncing around a little bit off the bottom? It's certainly notable that it's the first positive number in three years. I want to see what you think that is indicative of just in general in your customer base.

    我想稍微談談工業產量的增加。如果排除醫療保健解決方案的內部化,我們是否開始看到整體的成長?你覺得我們是不是一直在底部上下顛簸?值得注意的是,這是三年來第一個正數字。我想了解您認為這能反映出您的客戶群的一般特徵。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • So I think if you look at that in industrial, I think you hit on the key point, which is the first quarter in many that we've seen a positive uptick. And if you if you discount out the health care service volume, it's about 50 basis points of the increase. So net of that, we've still seen an increase in our volume. And I mentioned a little bit of less of a drag from the temporary business.

    所以我覺得,如果你從工業領域來看,我認為你抓住了關鍵點,那就是多年來我們看到的第一個積極的成長季度。若排除醫療保健服務量的影響,增幅約為 50 個基點。綜上所述,我們的銷量仍然有所成長。我也提到,臨時業務帶來的拖累稍微小了。

  • And Jim mentioned, we're seeing some of that flow through to our landfills in the construction and we've also seen an uptick in some of the business our permanent customers are doing. So think about the same customer falling a little bit more per week per month than they were before. Those are the two contributing factors, net of the health care and like I said, that's about half of the improvement.

    吉姆提到,我們看到一些垃圾流入了建築垃圾掩埋場,我們也看到一些長期客戶的業務有所成長。想像一下,同一個客戶每週每個月的跌倒次數比以前略多。撇開醫療保健不談,這兩個因素就是最終的成果,就像我說的,這大約佔了改善的一半。

  • Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

    Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

  • So it feels like the underlying business -- just to make clear, the underlying business is getting better. It's not just a bouncing around awful finally hitting the bottom. I'm just trying to put a little finer point on that.

    所以感覺是公司的基本面——需要說明的是,公司的基本面正在好轉。這不僅是跌跌撞撞最終跌入谷底那麼簡單。我只是想把這一點說得更清楚。

  • John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

    John Morris - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • I think you got it. Like I said, half of it's health care and half of it is unrelated to that. And as I mentioned, part of the yield push was the fact that the temp business is profitable, but it doesn't bring the same top line revenue. So it does put a little pressure on yield. But as you think about our margins in the collection business or our collection and disposal business, I think they'll speak for themselves.

    我想你明白了。正如我所說,其中一半與醫療保健有關,另一半則與醫療保健無關。正如我之前提到的,提高收益率的部分原因是臨時工業務雖然有利可圖,但並不能帶來同樣的總收入。所以這確實會對產量造成一些壓力。但當你思考我們在垃圾收集業務或垃圾收集和處置業務中的利潤率時,我想它們本身就能說明一切。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It could be interesting to see how the housing market does. I mean every home builder you talk to would tell you that we're short houses, unlike years ago during the Great Recession where we had too many and so hence, the big crash. Now we've kind of gone 180 degrees. And so it will be interesting to see how what the homebuilders do, how that affects our business because it is a piece of our business for sure, and it will affect our roll-off volumes.

    看看房地產市場會如何發展,應該會很有趣。我的意思是,你跟每個房屋建築商聊聊,他們都會告訴你,我們現在的房屋供應短缺,這與多年前經濟大蕭條時期房屋供應過剩的情況截然不同,當時房屋供應過剩,因此才導致了經濟大蕭條。現在我們算是來了個180度大轉彎。因此,看看房屋建築商的舉動會如何影響我們的業務將會很有趣,因為這肯定是我們業務的一部分,而且它會影響我們的滾裝量。

  • Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

    Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. I just wanted to follow up just a little bit more on the ERP impacts on the health care business. Where do you feel you are in terms of stabilizing that whole system so that we're clean the customers are seeing what they would expect to see and we can baseline off of there. I mean is it another few quarters that we need to go.

    好的。偉大的。我只是想再跟進 ERP 對醫療保健產業的影響。您認為目前在穩定整個系統方面進展如何?這樣才能確保清潔,讓客戶看到他們期望看到的東西,並以此為基準。我的意思是,我們還需要再撐幾個季度嗎?

  • I'm just trying to understand timing wise, how long we should think about this interim period before you get back to being able to implement the normal pricing you would expect? And then just a housekeeping convert to (technical difficulty) Is there a difference between issuing credits for past dues and write-offs? Or is it just semantics there?

    我只是想了解一下時間安排,在恢復正常定價之前,我們需要考慮多長時間的過渡期?然後,一個家事服務人員轉而(技術難題)對過去的欠款發放信用額度和註銷之間有什麼區別?或者這只是語義上的區別?

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, it's a great question. So I'm going to take that easy one first. So customer credit has to be recognized as a reduction to the revenue rather than a write-off, which is recognized as incremental SG&A cost and so our write-off actually were pretty well in hand in the quarter for the health care business.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題。所以我先選簡單的。因此,客戶信用必須確認為收入的減少,而不是核銷,而核銷則確認為增量銷售、一般及行政費用,因此,本季度醫療保健業務的核銷實際上控制得相當好。

  • It was more direct steps that we took to credit for the top line with our customers in the quarter where we saw an outsized impact. With respect to where we are in the ERP journey, I think Jim's comments about the fact that these implementations and journeys are measured in years, not months is the right way to think about it.

    我們採取了更直接的措施,以提高客戶對我們季度營收的認可度,並取得了顯著成效。就我們目前在 ERP 進程中的位置而言,我認為 Jim 關於這些實施和進程是以年而不是月來衡量的評論是正確的思考方式。

  • But I think to put a finer point on that, what's really exciting about where we are and kudos to the team that's working diligently on this each and every day in order for us to get there. But we're calling the current environment, and you actually use the word in asking the question, our stabilization period, and we expect to be through our stabilization period by the end of the first quarter.

    但我想更確切地說,我們所處的位置真正令人興奮的地方在於,我們要向為此每天辛勤工作的團隊致敬,正是他們的努力才使我們達到今天的成就。但我們稱當前環境(實際上,您在提問時也使用了這個詞)為穩定期,我們預計到第一季末將度過穩定期。

  • We're then going to move into a scalable and growth period, and we think that scalable and growth period starts with Q2. So we're really optimistic that we've got the right people working on this, we've got the right plan, and we are seeing really good traction on the work streams that are in place.

    接下來我們將進入可擴展和增長期,我們認為可擴展和增長期從第二季度開始。因此,我們非常樂觀地認為,我們找到了合適的人來做這件事,我們制定了正確的計劃,而且我們看到,現有的工作流程取得了非常好的進展。

  • And while there may be a quarter bump or bump in the road with regard to the revenue that we provided, we know that the bump in the road is temporary, and we're going to be on a stronger foundation going forward for the growth of the business long term.

    雖然我們提供的收入可能會出現第一季的小幅波動,但我們知道這只是暫時的,我們將擁有更堅實的基礎,以期實現業務的長期成長。

  • Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

    Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

  • Great. If you don't mind me sneaking in one more. Just if you renewed $200 million at low double-digit PIs, how do I think about that in terms of the flow through for the business? Is that you take that divided by revenue and assume that the rest of it is flat, and then you're in the 3% to 4% range or so you're already kind of narrowing in on your 5% to 6%? Or how should I take that in the context of what's going on?

    偉大的。如果你不介意我再偷偷加一個的話。如果以兩位數較低的利率續簽 2 億美元的合同,我該如何看待這對業務的影響?是用這個數字除以收入,假設其餘部分保持不變,那麼你的成長率就達到了 3% 到 4% 左右,這樣你就已經接近 5% 到 6% 的目標了?或者我應該如何結合當前的情況來理解這件事?

  • Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

    Rafael Carrasco - Senior Vice President - Enterprise Strategy

  • Yes, I think it's early to kind of think about that in the context of the 4% to 6%. I think those numbers are the aggregation of annualized revenue renewal and terms of contract that might extend well into 2 and 3 years. So it's just -- take it for what it is an indication that there is price to go get out there in this large complex network of customers.

    是的,我認為現在考慮 4% 到 6% 的成長幅度還為時過早。我認為這些數字是年度收入續約和合約條款的總和,這些條款可能會持續 2 到 3 年。所以,這只是一個跡象,顯示在這個龐大而複雜的客戶網絡中,想要取得成功是要付出代價的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bryan Burgmeier, Citi.

    Bryan Burgmeier,花旗銀行。

  • Bryan Burgmeier - Analyst

    Bryan Burgmeier - Analyst

  • I just had one question maybe for Tara. I appreciate the details on Natera PCR earlier in the call. Maybe just kind of zooming out, it seems like nobody has really cracked the code on flexible plastic recycling yet. What do you think maybe it takes to make flexible plastic recycling work at scale? Do you think we need EPR legislation? Is it kind of about the consumer packaged goods companies? And maybe what is the best way for WM to try to take advantage of that as Natura PCR is kind of on the sidelines right now.

    我只想問塔拉一個問題。感謝您在通話中早些時候提供的關於Natera PCR的詳細資訊。從更宏觀的角度來看,似乎還沒有人真正破解柔性塑膠回收的難題。你認為要實現柔性塑膠的大規模回收利用,需要具備哪些條件?你認為我們需要生產者責任延伸制度嗎?它是不是跟消費品包裝公司有關?而對於 WM 來說,如何才能最好地利用這一點呢?因為 Natura PCR 目前處於邊緣地位。

  • Tara Hemmer - Senior Vice President, Chief Sustainability Officer

    Tara Hemmer - Senior Vice President, Chief Sustainability Officer

  • So I just want to clarify, we did crack the code on making a quality product. What we were not able to crack the code on is getting customers to divorce their expectations for the price of that product from Virgin. And that is absolutely what has to happen in order for this to be a broader, sustainable business model.

    所以我想澄清一下,我們確實找到了製造高品質產品的秘訣。我們始終未能破解的難題是,如何讓顧客將他們對該產品價格的期望與維珍品牌脫鉤。而這正是要使其成為一個更廣泛、更永續的商業模式所必須發生的。

  • So there's a couple of ways that, that could happen. It could happen through minimum content legislation. That is one, and that exists in certain markets, but not across the whole country, and there needs to be broader enforcement and and penalties and teeth to that.

    所以,這種情況可能會以幾種方式發生。這可能會透過最低內容立法來實現。這是其中之一,這種情況在某些市場存在,但在全國範圍內並不普遍,需要更廣泛的執法、懲罰措施和威懾力。

  • And then two, the companies that would buy PCR, if their customers are expecting products that are put on shelves to be made from PCR, they're going to have to buy it at a higher price. If you think about our recycling business, our traditional recycling business is a fee-for-service model. And we're manufacturing a product in the Natura PCR plant, and we have to get an appropriate margin on that product, and that's independent of virgin pricing. That's just the reality of where we are in that space.

    其次,如果客戶期望上架的產品是由 PCR 製成的,那麼購買 PCR 的公司就必須以更高的價格購買。如果你考慮我們的回收業務,我們傳統的回收業務是一種按服務收費的模式。我們在 Natura PCR 工廠生產產品,我們必須從該產品中獲得適當的利潤,而這與原生價格無關。這就是我們目前在該領域所處的現實情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

    Stephanie Moore,傑富瑞集團。

  • Stephanie Moore - Analyst

    Stephanie Moore - Analyst

  • Great. Maybe just circling back on the M&A piece. I appreciate the commentary in terms of just all the work and integration behind the health care deal and also your commentary about the traditional solid waste deals completed or planned to be completed this year. I wanted to get a gauge of your appetite as you think about 2026 and even 2027 about looking at deals or opportunities outside of the traditional solid waste space.

    偉大的。或許可以再回顧一下併購那部分內容。我非常感謝您對醫療保健協議背後的所有工作和整合所做的評論,也感謝您對今年已完成或計劃完成的傳統固體廢物協議所做的評論。我想了解一下,在考慮 2026 年甚至 2027 年時,您是否有興趣在傳統固體廢棄物領域之外尋找交易或機會。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think we've always stayed pretty close to home on M&A, probably the farthest we've ventured out would have been Stericycle, and we did, I think, make a pretty good case that that's very similar to our existing core business. So we don't expect us to buy a semiconductor company in a couple of years. I think we'll continue to do what we do best, which is operated within our core. Our core it includes -- it includes solid waste, it includes hazardous waste. And for now, I think medical waste, I think we have enough on our plate to try and not do anything else in the near term.

    我認為我們在併購方面一直都比較保守,也許我們涉足最遠的地方就是收購了 Stericycle,而且我認為我們確實很好地證明了它與我們現有的核心業務非常相似。所以我們預計幾年內不會再收購一家半導體公司。我認為我們會繼續做我們最擅長的事情,也就是在我們核心業務範圍內運作。我們的核心內容包括—包括固體廢棄物和危險廢棄物。就目前而言,我認為醫療廢棄物問題我們已經有很多事情要處理,近期內最好不要再做其他事情了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And there are no further questions in the queue at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Jim Fish, CEO, for any closing remarks.

    謝謝。目前隊列中沒有其他問題了。現在我將把電話轉回給執行長吉姆·菲什先生,請他作總結發言。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • All right. Well, thank you very much. Before I sign off, I just -- I want to express my gratitude to my friend, Devina Rankin here. Devina is 23 years with a company that's amazing. She's got me by a couple -- nine years, and I have worked together more than nine years. She and I worked together since 2012 directly. And she's been an incredible, not only friend, Diana and Devina to Tracy and me, but also confidante for these -- I guess, it'd be 13 years since 2012.

    好的。非常感謝。在我結束演講之前,我只想表達我對我的朋友 Devina Rankin 的感激之情。德維娜在這家很棒的公司工作了23年。她比我年長幾歲──九年,而我們一起工作超過九年。自 2012 年起,我和她就直接一起工作。她不僅是黛安娜和德維娜這對崔西和我來說非常棒的朋友,也是我們這13年來的知己——我想,從2012年到現在已經13年了。

  • Everybody at this company thinks so highly of her and we're all going to miss her, but we know she'll do incredibly well in whatever you choose to do following her retirement. But thank you, Devina, for all you've done for this company.

    公司裡的每個人都非常敬重她,我們都會想念她,但我們知道,無論你退休後選擇做什麼,她都會做得非常好。但謝謝你,德維娜,謝謝你為公司所做的一切。

  • Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devina Rankin - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Jim. Thank you so much.

    謝謝你,吉姆。太感謝了。

  • James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    James Fish - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • With that, I will -- I'll just say we'll see you next quarter. Thank you very much.

    那麼,我就說──我們下個季度再見。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,您現在可以斷開連接了。