美國廢棄物管理公司 (WM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to WM third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 WM 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I will now hand the conference over to your speaker host, Ed Egl, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將會議交給演講主持人、投資者關係副總裁 Ed Egl。請繼續。

Thank you, Livia. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With me this morning are Jim Fish, President and Chief Executive Officer; John Morris, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; and Devina Rankin, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，利維亞。大家早安，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上和我在一起的有總裁兼執行長吉姆‧菲什 (Jim Fish)；約翰‧莫里斯，執行副總裁兼營運長；和 Devina Rankin，執行副總裁兼財務長。

You will hear prepared comments from each of them today. Jim will cover high-level financials and provide a strategic update. John will cover an operating overview, and Devina will come into details of the financials.

今天您將聽到他們每個人準備好的評論。吉姆將報告高階財務數據並提供策略更新。約翰將介紹營運概況，德維娜將介紹財務細節。

Before we get started, please note that we have filed a Form 8-K that includes the earnings press release and is available on our website at www.wm.com. The Form 8-K, the press release and the schedules of the press release include important information.

在我們開始之前，請注意，我們已經提交了一份表格 8-K，其中包括收益新聞稿，並可在我們的網站 www.wm.com 上取得。 8-K 表、新聞稿和新聞稿時間表包含重要資訊。

During the call, you will hear forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, projections or opinions about future periods. We'll also be providing an updated outlook for 2024. This outlook does not include transaction and advisory costs incurred in connection with the acquisition of Stericycle nor post-closing financial contributions related to the planned acquisition of Stericycle.

在通話過程中，您將聽到前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是基於當前對未來期間的預期、預測或意見。我們也將提供 2024 年的最新展望。這項展望不包括與收購 Stericycle 相關的交易和諮詢成本，也不包括與計劃收購 Stericycle 相關的交割後財務貢獻。

All forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Some of these risks and uncertainties are discussed in today's press release and in our filings with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Qs. John will discuss our results in the areas of yield and volume, which unless stated otherwise, are more specifically references to internal revenue growth or IRG from yield or volume.

所有前瞻性陳述均面臨風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果有重大差異。其中一些風險和不確定性在今天的新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件（包括我們最新的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格）中進行了討論。約翰將討論我們在產量和數量方面的結果，除非另有說明，否則更具體地指的是內部收入增長或產量或數量的 IRG。

During the call, Jim, John, and Devina will discuss operating EBITDA, which is income from operations before depreciation and amortization. Any comparisons, unless otherwise stated, will be with the prior year. Net income, EPS, and income from operations and margin, operating EBITDA and margin and SG&A expense and margin results have been adjusted to enhance comparability by excluding certain items that management believes do not reflect our fundamental business performance or results of operations.

在電話會議期間，吉姆、約翰和德維娜將討論營運 EBITDA，即折舊和攤銷前的營運收入。除非另有說明，任何比較都將與前一年進行。淨利潤、每股收益、營運收入和利潤、營運 EBITDA 和利潤以及 SG&A 費用和利潤結果經過調整，排除了管理層認為不能反映我們基本業務績效或營運結果的某些項目，以增強可比性。

These adjusted measures, in addition to free cash flow, are non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the earnings press release and tables, which can be found on the company's website at www.wm.com for reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our use of non-GAAP measures and non-GAAP projections. This call is being recorded and will be available 24 hours a day beginning approximately 1:00 PM Eastern Time today.

除了自由現金流之外，這些調整後的指標都是非公認會計準則指標。請參閱收益新聞稿和表格，這些內容可在公司網站www.wm.com 上找到，以了解與最具可比性的GAAP 衡量標準的對帳以及有關我們使用非GAAP 衡量標準和非GAAP 預測的其他資訊.此通話正在錄音，從東部時間今天下午 1:00 左右開始每天 24 小時接通。

As you're a replay of the call, accessed at WM website at www.investor.wm.com. Time-sensitive information provided during today's call, which is occurring on October 29, 2024, may no longer be accurate at the time of a replay. Any redistribution, retransmission, or rebroadcast of this call in any form or not the express written consent of WM is prohibited.

您可以透過 WM 網站 www.investor.wm.com 重播電話會議。今天的電話會議於 2024 年 10 月 29 日舉行，其中提供的時間敏感資訊在重播時可能不再準確。未經 WM 明確書面同意，禁止以任何形式重新散佈、轉發或轉播本次通話。

Now I'll turn the call over to WM's President and CEO, Jim Fish.

現在我將電話轉給 WM 總裁兼執行長 Jim Fish。

Okay. Thanks, Ed, and thank you all for joining us. Our quarterly results once again reflect robust operational performance in our collection and disposal business as well as our success executing on our strategic priorities. We're pleased to report another quarter of double-digit operating EBITDA growth, positioning us well to deliver about $6.5 billion for the full year, near the upper end of our guidance.

好的。謝謝艾德，也謝謝大家加入我們。我們的季度業績再次反映了我們在收集和處置業務方面的強勁營運業績以及我們在執行策略重點方面的成功。我們很高興地報告另一個季度營業 EBITDA 實現兩位數成長，這使我們能夠全年實現約 65 億美元的業績，接近我們指導的上限。

Our cost optimization efforts and disciplined pricing programs together are increasing the spread between price growth and our cost to serve, and our sustainability investments are providing margin accretive growth. As we'd anticipated, the third quarter set a new record for operating EBITDA margin at 30.5%, a year-over-year expansion of 90 basis points. This consistent growth underscores our commitment to delivering exceptional value to our shareholders.

我們的成本優化工作和嚴格的定價計劃共同擴大了價格增長與服務成本之間的差距，而我們的可持續發展投資則帶來了利潤增值增長。正如我們預期的那樣，第三季營運 EBITDA 利潤率創下 30.5% 的新紀錄，比去年同期成長 90 個基點。這種持續成長凸顯了我們為股東提供卓越價值的承諾。

We remain focused on furthering our cost optimization efforts in our collection and disposal business and improving frontline retention. And John will share more about the headway we're making here. Our teams are also hard at work integrating acquisitions in key markets and have closed nearly $800 million of solid waste acquisitions through the first nine months of the year with a strong pipeline of additional deals.

我們仍專注於進一步優化收集和處置業務的成本，並提高第一線人員的保留率。約翰將分享更多有關我們在此取得的進展的資訊。我們的團隊也努力整合關鍵市場的收購，今年前 9 個月已完成近 8 億美元的固體廢棄物收購，並有大量額外交易。

We continue to progress towards closing the acquisition of Stericycle, which will add a complementary medical waste platform to our business and expand our suite of service offerings. During the quarter, Stericycle shareholders approved the merger agreement. We received clearance from all international regulators, except for Canada, which is progressing.

我們繼續努力完成對 Stericycle 的收購，這將為我們的業務增加一個補充性的醫療廢棄物平台，並擴大我們的服務範圍。本季度，Stericycle 股東批准了合併協議。我們已獲得所有國際監管機構的許可，但加拿大除外，該監管機構正在取得進展。

We're also advancing our integration planning, which has confirmed our confidence in the value of the Stericycle acquisition. We look forward to welcoming Stericycle team members to the WM team this quarter.

我們也正在推動整合計劃，這證實了我們對 Stericycle 收購價值的信心。我們期待本季歡迎 Stericycle 團隊成員加入 WM 團隊。

Turning to recycling, during the quarter, we completed eight projects across our network, including six automation upgrades and new facilities in New York and Florida. Our team's focus on execution has been excellent with two of the projects completed in the quarter beginning operations ahead of plan.

談到回收，本季我們在整個網路中完成了八個項目，包括紐約和佛羅裡達州的六個自動化升級和新設施。我們的團隊對執行的關注非常出色，本季完成的兩個專案提前開始營運。

We've now completed 24 of the 39 projects in the growth program, which have added 1.5 million tons of annual recycling capacity across North America. Our automated recycling facilities are consistently delivering lower labor cost per ton and higher blended value on our commodity sales compared to our legacy plants, which translates into better operating EBITDA margins.

我們現已完成成長計畫中 39 個項目中的 24 個，這些計畫為整個北美地區增加了 150 萬噸的年回收能力。與我們的傳統工廠相比，我們的自動化回收設施始終提供更低的每噸勞動力成本和更高的商品銷售綜合價值，這轉化為更好的營運 EBITDA 利潤。

In the renewable energy business, we remain on track to commission the four new renewable natural gas projects in the fourth quarter, adding to our DFW plants, which we brought online earlier this year. With these five projects, along with the two we completed prior to 2024, we will have seven of the 20 planned projects online by year-end.

在再生能源業務中，我們仍有望在第四季度投產四個新的再生天然氣項目，增加今年稍早上線的 DFW 工廠。有了這五個項目，再加上我們在 2024 年之前完成的兩個項目，我們將在年底前將 20 個計劃項目中的 7 個上線。

There are an additional 12 projects in active construction, and the final plant will begin construction in early 2025. The seven projects are expected to contribute approximately 6 million MMBtus of annual production in 2025. Next year is anticipated to be a pivotal year of contributions from renewable natural gas investments, and we're committed to scaling this unique opportunity to create long-term value for the environment and shareholders alike.

還有 12 個項目正在積極建設中，最終工廠將於 2025 年初開始建造。預計這七個項目到 2025 年將貢獻約 600 萬 MMBtus 的年產量。預計明年將是再生天然氣投資貢獻的關鍵一年，我們致力於擴大這一獨特的機會，為環境和股東創造長期價值。

We came into this year expecting strong execution across several fronts. And through the first nine months, we've delivered results that exceeded our own high expectations. As we look ahead to 2025, we anticipate continued growth in our solid waste business, increased contributions from our sustainability growth investments, and the successful integration of the Stericycle business to come together to create a significant step change in revenue, earnings, and free cash flow.

進入今年，我們期望在多個方面都有強勁的執行力。在前九個月裡，我們所取得的成果超越了我們自己的高期望。展望 2025 年，我們預期固體廢棄物業務將持續成長，永續發展投資的貢獻將增加，Stericycle 業務的成功整合將在收入、獲利和自由現金方面實現重大轉變流動。

I want to thank our dedicated team, whose hard work and commitment make all of this possible. And now I'll turn the call over to John, who will provide a deeper dive into our operational results for the quarter.

我要感謝我們敬業的團隊，他們的辛勤工作和奉獻使這一切成為可能。現在我將把電話轉給約翰，他將更深入地介紹我們本季的營運表現。

Thanks, Jim, and good morning. Before we dive in our operational performance and financial metrics, I want to take a minute to acknowledge and thank our team for providing safe and reliable service to our customers, especially considering the severe weather events. Hurricanes Helene and Milton effect of both our employees and the communities we serve. We are working hard to support those impacted helping restore a sense of normalcy in these areas.

謝謝，吉姆，早安。在我們深入了解我們的營運績效和財務指標之前，我想花一點時間感謝我們的團隊為客戶提供安全可靠的服務，特別是考慮到惡劣的天氣事件。颶風海倫和米爾頓對我們的員工和我們服務的社區都有影響。我們正在努力支持受影響的人，幫助這些地區恢復正常狀態。

Turning to our results, we continue to prioritize technology and automation to optimize our cost structure and enhance operational efficiency. This is evident in operating expenses of 60.6% of revenue in the third quarter which improved 70 basis points and overcame a 30-basis-point headwind from additional workdays in the quarter. This is the fourth consecutive quarter this measure has been below 61%.

談到我們的結果，我們繼續優先考慮技術和自動化，以優化我們的成本結構並提高營運效率。這在第三季佔收入 60.6% 的營運費用中得到了明顯體現，該費用提高了 70 個基點，並克服了本季額外工作日帶來的 30 個基點的不利影響。這是該指標連續第四個季度低於 61%。

This quarter's result is driven by continued benefits from cost optimization, pricing discipline, and easing inflation. We also benefited from lower fuel prices and stronger contributions from our renewable energy business, though these gains were offset by the impact of increased recycled commodity prices on the brokerage business.

本季的業績是由成本優化、定價紀律和通膨緩解帶來的持續收益所推動的。我們也受惠於較低的燃料價格和再生能源業務的強勁貢獻，儘管這些收益被再生商品價格上漲對經紀業務的影響所抵消。

Our operating expense performance was largely driven by our collection business, in particular, in labor and repair and maintenance costs. Labor costs improved through a combination of retention, technology, and automation. We've automated more than 800 routes in our residential fleet since 2022, reducing our labor dependence, boosting efficiency, and improving safety performance. The continued adoption of scheduling and planning tools, advanced mapping systems, and dynamic routing is also driving efficiency and reducing operating costs.

我們的營運費用表現在很大程度上是由我們的收款業務所驅動的，特別是勞動力以及維修和維護成本。透過保留人員、技術和自動化的結合，勞動力成本得到了改善。自 2022 年以來，我們對住宅車隊中的 800 多條路線實現了自動化，減少了對勞動力的依賴，提高了效率並提高了安全性能。調度和規劃工具、先進的地圖系統和動態路線的持續採用也提高了效率並降低了營運成本。

In the third quarter, our weighted average collection efficiency rose by 2%, with the residential line of business increasing more than 4%. Our intentional focus on making WM a great place to build a career is leading to reduced driver and technician turnover, improving about 19% annualized, a significant improvement over last year.

第三季度，我們的加權平均收集效率上升了2%，其中住宅業務成長了4%以上。我們有意將 WM 打造成一個建立職業生涯的好地方，這導致司機和技術人員的流動率減少，年增長率提高了約 19%，比去年有了顯著改善。

Repair and maintenance costs also improved as a percentage of revenue, driven by our ongoing implementation of technology-driven processes and improvements in our truck delivery schedule. Our focus and execution in these areas are leading to strong financial performance as adjusted operating EBITDA in the collection and disposal business grew $181 million in the quarter, with margin expanding to 37.4%.

由於我們持續實施技術驅動流程以及卡車交付計畫的改進，維修和維護成本佔收入的百分比也有所改善。我們在這些領域的重點和執行力帶來了強勁的財務業績，本季收集和處置業務的調整後營運 EBITDA 成長了 1.81 億美元，利潤率擴大至 37.4%。

Finally, turning to our revenue growth, our pricing results continue to track well. Our team continues to leverage customer-specific data and insights to deliver pricing in line with inflation alongside our margin expansion objectives. We are being purposeful in allocating our people and our assets to their best use.

最後，談到我們的收入成長，我們的定價結果繼續保持良好勢頭。我們的團隊繼續利用客戶特定的數據和見解來提供符合通貨膨脹的定價以及我們的利潤擴張目標。我們有目的地將我們的人員和資產分配到他們的最佳用途。

This approach is very evident in our residential line of business, where we've intentionally moved away from lower-margin business while at the same time significantly improving our safety performance, growing organic revenue, and expanding operating EBITDA margin.

這種方法在我們的住宅業務中非常明顯，我們有意放棄利潤率較低的業務，同時顯著提高我們的安全績效，增加有機收入，並擴大經營 EBITDA 利潤率。

By maintaining and growing the right volumes, we are driving long-term value and enhancing overall returns. Our volume results have trended consistently to what we saw in the first half of the year, with growth from commercial collection, MSW, and special waste. It is encouraging to see our key volumes continue to grow, particularly MSW, which was up 5.7% in the quarter.

透過維持和成長適當的銷售量，我們正在推動長期價值並提高整體回報。我們的產量結果與上半年的情況一致，商業收集、城市固體廢物和特殊廢物有所增長。令人鼓舞的是，我們的主要銷售持續成長，尤其是城市生活垃圾，本季成長了 5.7%。

While the roll-off business remains soft, the declines in volume showed sequential improvement. Similar to the residential business, we're making the right volume trade-offs as organic revenue grew in the quarter and operating EBITDA margin expanded.

儘管滾裝業務依然疲軟，但銷量的下降顯示出季比改善。與住宅業務類似，隨著本季有機收入的成長和營業 EBITDA 利潤率的擴大，我們正在做出正確的銷售權衡。

Churn was 9.2% in the quarter, which is similar to last year and validates the effectiveness of our customer lifetime value model. Service increases continued to outpace decreases further reinforcing our execution. We remain confident that our data-driven business decisions and technology investments are leading to greater operational efficiency and improved return on capital, which is reflected in the growth and margin performance of our collection and disposal operations.

本季客戶流失率為 9.2%，與去年相似，驗證了我們客戶終身價值模型的有效性。服務成長持續超過下降，進一步加強了我們的執行力。我們仍然相信，我們的數據驅動的業務決策和技術投資將帶來更高的營運效率和更高的資本回報率，這反映在我們的收集和處置業務的成長和利潤表現中。

In closing, I want to thank the entire WM team again for their contributions. Their performance positions us for a strong year-end finish and sustained growth heading into 2025.

最後，我要再次感謝整個 WM 團隊的貢獻。他們的表現使我們能夠在年底取得強勁業績並在 2025 年實現持續成長。

And now I'll turn the call over to Devina to discuss our third-quarter financial results in further detail.

現在我將把電話轉給德維娜，進一步詳細討論我們第三季的財務表現。

Thanks, John, and good morning. Our results underscore the effectiveness of our strategy to maximize customer lifetime value and drive operating efficiency. Our success is again evident in the operating EBITDA growth, which was 11% in the quarter and operating EBITDA margin, which reached an all-time high of 30.5%.

謝謝，約翰，早安。我們的結果強調了我們最大化客戶終身價值和提高營運效率的策略的有效性。我們的成功再次體現在營業 EBITDA 成長（本季成長 11%）和營業 EBITDA 利潤率（達到 30.5% 的歷史新高）。

This result was at the low end of our projection of 30.5% to 31% for the quarter due to higher-than-expected recycling commodity prices. When considering about 20 basis points of margin pressure from higher recycled commodity prices, we see the 90 basis points of margin expansion is a strong result that was right at the middle of our guidance range.

由於回收商品價格高於預期，這一結果處於我們本季預測 30.5% 至 31% 的低端。當考慮到回收商品價格上漲帶來約 20 個基點的利潤壓力時，我們認為 90 個基點的利潤擴張是一個強勁的結果，正好位於我們指導範圍的中間。

This highlights that margin expansion from organic growth and cost optimization met our expectations. Once again, margin expansion was driven by the collection and disposal business. Our disciplined pricing strategy, intentional shedding of low-margin residential volume, improved employee retention benefits from truck deliveries, and the use of technology to drive efficiency combined to deliver 140 basis points of margin growth in the third quarter.

這凸顯了有機成長和成本優化帶來的利潤率擴張符合我們的預期。利潤率的擴張再次受到收集和處置業務的推動。我們嚴格的定價策略、有意減少低利潤住宅數量、提高卡車送貨的員工保留福利，以及利用技術提高效率，第三季利潤增加了 140 個基點。

The 50-basis-point offset relates to higher incentive compensation costs. These results have been driven by robust operating -- they have driven robust operating and free cash flow growth as well. We generated $3.88 billion of cash from operations through the first nine months of 2024, an increase of more than 16% compared to the same period in 2023. With capital expenditures tracking according to plan across the business and proceeds from the divestiture of nonstrategic assets a little ahead of our plan, we've grown free cash flow by 20%.

50 個基點的抵銷與較高的激勵補償成本有關。這些業績是由強勁的營運推動的——它們也推動了強勁的營運和自由現金流的成長。截至 2024 年前 9 個月，我們的營運產生了 38.8 億美元的現金，與 2023 年同期相比成長了 16% 以上。由於整個業務的資本支出按照計劃進行跟踪，並且剝離非戰略資產的收益略高於我們的計劃，因此我們的自由現金流增長了 20%。

Our outlook for the full year is strong, with the operating EBITDA toward the high end of expectations being the driver. Total capital expenditures are expected to be $3.15 billion to $3.25 billion for the year. The increase of about $50 million from our prior guidance relates to continued progress on the development of our sustainability growth investments.

我們對全年的前景十分樂觀，營運 EBITDA 接近預期的高端是推動因素。今年總資本支出預計為31.5億美元至32.5億美元。與我們先前的指導相比增加了約 5000 萬美元，這與我們可持續發展投資的持續進展有關。

Additionally, we continue to expect $145 million of investment tax credits in 2024 from our renewable natural gas projects. Putting all of this together, we're on pace to achieve the high end of our full-year free cash flow guidance for the year of $2.15 billion.

此外，我們預計 2024 年我們的再生天然氣計畫將繼續獲得 1.45 億美元的投資稅收抵免。綜上所述，我們預計將實現全年自由現金流指引的上限，即 21.5 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong, and we're well positioned to fund the acquisition of Stericycle. As a reminder, we have suspended our share buyback program because of the current focus on M&A growth including the pending Stericycle acquisition and the nearly $800 million of core solid waste acquisitions completed through the end of the third quarter.

我們的資產負債表仍然強勁，我們有能力為收購 Stericycle 提供資金。提醒一下，我們已經暫停了股票回購計劃，因為目前我們的重點是併購成長，包括即將進行的 Stericycle 收購以及截至第三季末完成的近 8 億美元的核心固體廢棄物收購。

We remain committed to a disciplined approach to allocating capital. And we prioritize a strong investment-grade credit rating, organic and inorganic long-term strategic growth, and strong shareholder returns through dividends and prudent share repurchases.

我們仍然致力於採取嚴格的資本配置方法。我們優先考慮強大的投資等級信用評級、有機和無機的長期策略成長，以及透過股息和審慎的股票回購實現強勁的股東回報。

With three quarters of the year complete, we're confident that we will meet or exceed the high end of our 2024 guidance for revenue and free cash flow. And we will deliver about $6.5 billion of operating EBITDA, representing a growth rate of about 10%.

今年已過三個季度，我們有信心達到或超過 2024 年收入和自由現金流指引的上限。我們將實現約 65 億美元的營運 EBITDA，成長率約為 10%。

This strong finish to 2024 will create momentum that we expect to carry into our 2025 plan. When you combine our solid waste growth with an increase in earnings contributions from sustainability projects and the expected benefits from adding the Stericycle business to our portfolio, we expect the year ahead to be one of standout performance.

2024 年的強勁收官將為我們創造動力，預計將其納入 2025 年計畫。當你將我們的固體廢棄物成長與永續發展項目帶來的收益貢獻的增加以及將Stericycle 業務添加到我們的投資組合中的預期收益結合起來時，我們預計未來一年將是表現出色的一年。

Thanks to the efforts of the 48,000-plus team members across WM who are working hard to deliver on all of our strategic priorities, we're bullish about the future at WM. We want to thank the team for all they do. We look forward to delivering on our targets for 2024 as we close out the remainder of the year.

感謝 WM 48,000 多名團隊成員的努力，他們正在努力實現我們所有的策略優先事項，我們對 WM 的未來充滿信心。我們要感謝團隊所做的一切。我們期待在今年剩餘時間結束時實現 2024 年的目標。

With that, Livia, let's open the line for questions.

那麼，莉維亞，讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions) Tyler Brown, Raymond James.

（操作員說明）泰勒·布朗，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hey, good morning. So I think back in '23, you guys did call $40 million of renewable segment EBITDA. Do you guys still feel comfortable that you'll be run rating somewhere around $300 million in sustainability EBITDA here in Q4? And can you guys give us any color, just big picture, on how much incremental EBITDA comes from that segment in '25. I think you guys had mentioned that you would be run rating at maybe $0.5 billion by the end of '25. Does that all still seem good or has that been pushed a little bit to the right?

嘿，早安。所以我想回到 23 年，你們確實將 4000 萬美元的可再生能源部門稱為 EBITDA。你們仍然對第四季度的可持續發展 EBITDA 達到 3 億美元左右感到滿意嗎？你們能給我們一些關於 25 年該細分市場的 EBITDA 增量有多少的詳細資訊嗎？我想你們已經提到過，到 25 年底，你們的營運評級可能會達到 5 億美元。這一切看起來仍然不錯還是已經被推到右邊了呢？

So I can take this one. This is Tara Hemmer. You'll recall during our last call, $800 million is what we plan to deliver in 2027, and we had pushed that out. If you look at the earnings contribution for 2024 from the sustainability-related businesses, we're expecting that to be in the $120 million to $130 million range for 2024.

所以我可以拿走這個。這是塔拉·赫默。您還記得在我們上次通話中，我們計劃在 2027 年交付 8 億美元，但我們已經推遲了這項計劃。如果您查看可持續發展相關業務 2024 年的收入貢獻，我們預計 2024 年該收入將在 1.2 億至 1.3 億美元之間。

And you'll recall, we had originally guided $115 million, plus another $15 million coming from commodity prices in the recycling business. Related to what we expect to deliver in 2025, what we can tell you really qualitatively is a little bit of the pieces.

您還記得，我們​​最初指導了 1.15 億美元，另外 1500 萬美元來自回收業務的商品價格。與我們預計在 2025 年交付的內容相關，我們可以真正定性地告訴您的是一些細節。

We certainly expect higher EBITDA growth as these plants come online, not just on the RNG space, but also the recycling space. And we're going to expect lower CapEx in 2025. So when you put those pieces together, you'll expect greater flow-through. The other thing we should mention is we are expecting slightly higher CapEx for the program. Originally, we had said between $2.8 billion and $2.9 billion, and we're now expecting about $3 billion.

隨著這些工廠的上線，我們當然預期 EBITDA 會出現更高的成長，不僅是 RNG 領域，還有回收領域。我們預計 2025 年資本支出將會降低。因此，當您將這些部分組合在一起時，您會期望獲得更大的流量。我們應該提到的另一件事是，我們預計該計劃的資本支出會略高。最初，我們預計在 28 億至 29 億美元之間，現在預計約為 30 億美元。

So all in all, we do expect 2025 to be a significant year for our sustainability-related investments. It's a bit premature for us to give you all the pieces for 2025 based on where things may shake out related to the completion of the plants in Q4 of 2024. And then also, of course, we're tracking closely commodity prices. So we'll give more of an update in early 2025.

總而言之，我們確實預期 2025 年對於我們的永續發展相關投資將是重要的一年。根據 2024 年第四季工廠竣工相關情況可能出現的情況，我們現在向您提供 2025 年的所有資訊還為時過早。當然，我們也在密切追蹤大宗商品價格。因此，我們將在 2025 年初提供更多更新。

And Tyler, with regard to the segment reporting, the one thing I would just clarify is there's some additional details that we provided in the current press release that will give color to some of the mechanics associated with the collection and disposal business and their contribution to the earnings growth of the sustainability investment portfolio that Tara has talked about. And I think it's important to look at those details to see the total picture.

泰勒，關於分部報告，我要澄清的一件事是，我們在當前新聞稿中提供了一些額外的細節，這些細節將為與收集和處置業務相關的一些機制及其貢獻提供色彩。談到的可持續投資組合的獲利成長。我認為重要的是要查看這些細節以了解整體情況。

And if you look at those details, what you'll see is year to date, we've delivered $92 million in EBITDA.

如果您查看這些詳細信息，您會發現今年迄今為止，我們已實現 9,200 萬美元的 EBITDA。

And then, Tara, just on the CapEx, so I think if I take the $950 million, and I think you've already spent, call it, $1.4 billion. So your already, I think, by the end of '24, call it, $2 billion, $3 billion. So that implies maybe another $700 million. Is that mostly in '25, so it steps down in '25 and then a big step down in '26? Or is that going to be maybe pro rata between the two?

然後，塔拉，就資本支出而言，所以我想如果我拿走 9.5 億美元，我想你已經花了，稱之為 14 億美元。所以我想，到 24 年底，你已經達到 20 億美元、30 億美元了。因此，這可能意味著另外 7 億美元。這主要是在 25 年，所以它在 25 年下降，然後在 26 年大幅下降？或者這可能是兩者之間按比例計算的？

Absolutely. You have that right. You have the pieces right.

絕對地。你有這個權利。你的碎片是正確的。

Okay. Okay. Perfect. And just my last one, Jim, so I know you guys don't give a ton of color on the out year. But you did mention that again you're set up for an outsized growth in '25, and we're in the business of splitting hairs. So I just want to kind of understand exactly what you mean by that.

好的。好的。完美的。吉姆，這只是我的最後一篇，所以我知道你們不會為這一年提供太多的色彩。但您確實再次提到，您已準備好在 25 年實現大幅增長，而我們正處於吹毛求疵的狀態。所以我只是想確切地理解你的意思。

So I think of you guys as a 5% to 7% organic EBITDA grower and then we add something for M&A and renewables. So when you say an outsized grower, is that in context to that 5% to 7% organically or are you just simply saying that, that growth can be north of 5% to 7% with Stericycle and renewables. Just any additional color would be super helpful.

所以我認為你們是 5% 到 7% 的有機 EBITDA 種植者，然後我們為併購和可再生能源添加一些東西。因此，當您說大型種植者時，是指有機增長 5% 至 7% 的情況，還是只是簡單地說，使用 Stericycle 和可再生能源，增長可以超過 5% 至 7%。只要任何額外的顏色都會非常有幫助。

Yes. So the 5% to 7% is a number that we gave in 2019 with Investor Day, and we've actually been, over the last couple of years have been outperforming that organically. But if you -- the reason we're as excited as we are about '25, '26, '27 is that when you look at a couple of things, first of all, you look at -- you just talked to Tara, the sustainability investments.

是的。因此，5% 到 7% 是我們在 2019 年投資者日給出的數字，實際上，在過去幾年中，我們的表現一直優於這個數字。但如果你——我們對「25」、「26」、「27」感到興奮的原因是，當你看一些事情時，首先，你看——你剛剛和塔拉談過，可持續性投資。

As she said, CapEx -- you had the numbers just about exactly right. We probably have about $700 million left in CapEx, maybe a little bit more than that. And most of that happens next year. So you can expect to see a pretty substantial uptick in the free cash flow component.

正如她所說，資本支出——你的數字幾乎完全正確。我們的資本支出可能還剩下約 7 億美元，也許比這個多一點。其中大部分發生在明年。因此，您可以預期自由現金流部分將出現相當大的成長。

And when I say most of that occurs next year, that is still lower in terms of CapEx than this year. Because this year is going to be, call it, $900 million for those sustainability investments. Next year will be something lower than that. And then 2026 will be significantly lower than that in terms of CapEx. And at the same time, you see the EBITDA really, really kicking up.

當我說大部分發生在明年時，就資本支出而言，這仍然低於今年。因為今年的永續投資將達到 9 億美元。明年會比這個低一些。然後 2026 年的資本支出將顯著低於 2026 年。同時，你會看到 EBITDA 確實非常非常高。

We do have most of these plants, it seems rolling on in the fourth quarter. So we're not getting the impact of EBITDA in that year. This year is no exception to that, with four of the five coming online in the fourth quarter. Kind of the same thing for next year, a number of plants are coming online in the fourth quarter. But we do fully expect to see $800 million by the time we -- the first full year that will be 2027.

我們確實擁有大部分此類工廠，似乎將在第四季度投入使用。所以我們沒有得到當年 EBITDA 的影響。今年也不例外，五個中的四個在第四季上線。明年也會發生同樣的情況，許多工廠將在第四季上線。但我們確實完全預計，到 2027 年第一個全年時，收入將達到 8 億美元。

You add to that Stericycle, we've had 4.5 months to look at it. We're even more enthusiastic about the strategic side of Stericycle than we were when we announced this 4.5 months ago. Raf and his team have had a lot of opportunity to look into this. In addition to looking at their core business, which we said four months ago was really just kind of a fourth line of business for us, and we now believe that even more after spending 4.5 months on it.

再加上 Stericycle，我們有 4.5 個月的時間來研究它。與 4.5 個月前宣布這項消息時相比，我們對 Stericycle 的策略方面更加充滿熱情。Raf 和他的團隊有很多機會來研究這個問題。除了專注於他們的核心業務之外，我們在四個月前說這實際上只是我們的第四條業務線，而在花了 4.5 個月的時間後，我們現在相信這一點更加重要。

The synergies piece, which we said initially, we thought might be $125 million over three years, we now are pretty convinced that that's a conservative number. I don't know exactly what that number is going to be yet, and we'll give you more insight into that with guidance in '25.

我們最初說過，我們認為三年內的協同效應可能會達到 1.25 億美元，但現在我們非常確信這是一個保守的數字。我還不知道這個數字到底是多少，我們將在 25 年的指導中為您提供更多的見解。

But look, I mean the best example is SG&A. We baked in about $40 million worth of SG&A synergies there in the original $125 million. And that takes their SG&A number from 22% of revenue down to 19%. We're reporting 8.9% ourselves today, so you can understand our optimism around synergies.

但你看，我的意思是最好的例子是SG&A。我們在最初的 1.25 億美元中加入了價值約 4000 萬美元的 SG&A 協同效應。這使得他們的 SG&A 數字從收入的 22% 下降到 19%。我們今天報告的獲利率為 8.9%，因此您可以理解我們對協同效應的樂觀態度。

And then John talked a lot about the use of technology. It's something that we probably five years ago, started recognizing that there was -- particularly with these trade type positions, there was kind of an impending shortage coming. And so we started investing in technology to -- when those positions would attrit away from us that we wouldn't have to replace them that we would use technology, and hence, the investments that we've made over the last five years in technology.

然後約翰談到了很多關於科技的使用。我們可能在五年前就開始認識到，特別是對於這些貿易類型的頭寸，即將出現短缺。因此，我們開始投資技術，以便當這些職位從我們身邊消失時，我們就不必更換它們，我們將使用技術，因此，我們在過去五年中在技術方面進行了投資。

And those have really all started to show up. You've heard John talk a lot about, I think you said four consecutive quarters of sub-61% OpEx as a percent of revenue. That is largely driven by our pricing programs, but also by our cost improvement on the efficiency side.

這些都已經開始顯現。您已經聽過 John 談論過很多，我想您說過連續四個季度營運支出佔收入的百分比低於 61%。這主要是由我們的定價計劃所推動的，但也得益於我們在效率方面的成本改進。

You combine all of those plus still a pretty robust market out there for tuck-in acquisitions, and you can see why we're really, really optimistic. No matter what happens with the election, no matter what happens with the economy, barring a disastrous geopolitical event, we're very optimistic about '25, '26, '27.

將所有這些結合起來，再加上仍然是一個相當強勁的收購市場，你就會明白為什麼我們真的非常樂觀。無論選舉發生什麼，無論經濟發生什麼，除非發生災難性的地緣政治事件，我們對 25 年、26 年、27 年都非常樂觀。

Great color. Thank you.

顏色很棒。謝謝。

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

東尼卡普蘭，摩根士丹利。

Thank you so much. Good morning. Wanted to ask about the revenue guidance raise. I know you don't give guidance quarterly, but 3Q was a little bit stronger than, I guess, what I was expecting. And so was the raise driven by 3Q performance? And why not?

太感謝了。早安.想詢問收入指導提高的情況。我知道你們不會按季度提供指導，但我想第三季的情況比我的預期要強一些。那麼這次的上漲是由第三季的業績推動嗎？為什麼不呢？

Is there anything that leads you to expect the momentum you had in the quarter won't continue into 4Q? It doesn't sound like it. So I just wanted to understand what was going into the thought process there. Thanks.

有什麼因素讓您預期本季的動能不會持續到第四季嗎？聽起來不像。所以我只是想了解那裡的思考過程是怎麼樣的。謝謝。

So you're right that the third quarter was an outsized performance on the revenue line, and that really came from two things. It was recycled commodity prices and landfill volumes. We're optimistic that the landfill volume contribution continues into the fourth quarter. There wasn't anything specific or unusual about that growth. It's some strong market performance in the Midwest part of our company and a really good contribution margin from that business.

所以你說得對，第三季的營收表現非常出色，這其實來自於兩件事。這是回收商品的價格和垃圾掩埋量。我們對垃圾掩埋量的貢獻持續到第四季持樂觀態度。這種增長沒有任何具體或不尋常的地方。這是我們公司中西部地區強勁的市場表現以及該業務的非常好的邊際貢獻。

The recycling commodity price piece of it is recycling brokerage contribution and with the port strike impacts that we saw late in the third quarter and some continuing uncertainty associated with those impacts going into the fourth quarter, we're less optimistic that you'll see upside to recycling commodity prices continue into the quarter ahead or into 2025. At this point, it's too early for us to say.

回收商品價格的一部分是回收經紀業務的貢獻，由於我們在第三季末看到了港口罷工的影響，以及與進入第四季度的這些影響相關的一些持續的不確定性，我們對上漲空間不太樂觀回收商品價格將持續到本季或 2025 年。在這一點上，我們現在說還為時過早。

So really happy with the core business performance and the contributors from collection and disposal specifically, a little more cautious with regard to the recycling commodity price piece. So that is the lower flow-through part of the business, which is why we're still confident in the EBITDA contribution of that revenue growth.

因此，對核心業務績效以及特別是收集和處置方面的貢獻感到非常滿意，對回收商品價格部分更加謹慎。因此，這是業務流量較低的部分，這就是為什麼我們仍然對營收成長的 EBITDA 貢獻充滿信心。

And I think, Devina, we had a little bit of an offset from lower electricity pricing that hit the top line for the quarter. So that would tell you that -- it's part of why we were as pleased with the performance at 7.9% growth there on the top line.

我認為，德維娜，我們受到本季營收下降的電價下降的影響。所以這會告訴你——這就是為什麼我們對 7.9% 的營收成長表現感到滿意的部分原因。

I think what it tells us, as we look out to 2025 is that there aren't any storm clouds on the horizon there with respect to the economy. It's so hard to tell these days. Obviously, in an election year, it's really hard to tell because both sides are kind of giving their own talking points.

我認為，當我們展望 2025 年時，它告訴我們的是，經濟方面不會出現任何烏雲。這些天很難說清楚。顯然，在選舉年，這真的很難說，因為雙方都在給出自己的談話要點。

But we're not seeing anything that would indicate storm clouds on the horizon for us. We feel like the economy is on relatively good footing.

但我們沒有看到任何預示暴風雲即將來臨的跡象。我們認為經濟基礎相對良好。

Yes. That sounds great. I wanted to ask also on an update on the price cost spread and how you're thinking about how that progresses in the next few quarters. Thanks.

是的。聽起來很棒。我還想詢問價格成本差的最新情況，以及您如何看待未來幾季的進展。謝謝。

Yes. Toni, I think certainly, we're pleased. As I said in my prepared remarks, we remain on track with regard to our pricing objectives for the year. A few things I would point out is when you look at the spread to our you see that CPI is down, again, about 120 basis points for the quarter and 160 basis points year to date. And if you compare that to our core price and yield numbers, I think it tells a good story.

是的。東尼，我想當然，我們很高興。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們仍然在實現今年的定價目標。我要指出的幾件事是，當你查看我們的利差時，你會發現 CPI 再次下降，本季下降了約 120 個基點，年初至今下降了 160 個基點。如果你將其與我們的核心價格和收益率數據進行比較，我認為它講述了一個很好的故事。

And then to the comments you heard from Jim, Devina, and I had shown up certainly in the margin. So long story short, we feel good about the kind of disciplined approach we're taking to pricing. The customer value lifetime model we're using from a data and analytics standpoint and when you look at, as I mentioned, when you look at the spread, it continues to show up in OpEx and in margin.

然後是你從吉姆、德維娜和我那裡聽到的評論，這些評論肯定出現在頁邊空白處。長話短說，我們對我們在定價方面採取的嚴格方法感到滿意。我們從數據和分析的角度使用的客戶價值生命週期模型，正如我所提到的，當你觀察利差時，它繼續出現在營運支出和利潤中。

And I think, too, John, we've talked Toni, a lot about 5,000 to 7,000 jobs kind of trading away from us. I mentioned it just briefly in response to Tyler's question. We're at about 2,200, a little bit more than that 2,241 to be precise since 2022, positions that we have chosen to not refill that left us via attrition, and we've chosen not to refill those. And we think, John, another potentially 3,000 so call it, fourth or fifth inning to use the baseball analogy is about where we are now. Most of those are coming out through recycling automation and then through this conversion from traditional rear load to automated side load.

我也認為，約翰，我們已經和托尼談過了，大約有 5,000 到 7,000 個工作崗位從我們身邊消失了。我只是在回答泰勒的問題時簡單地提到了這一點。我們的職位數量約為2,200 個，準確地說，比2022 年以來的2,241 個職位多一點，我們選擇不重新填補這些職位，這些職位是由於人員流失而留下的，而我們選擇不重新填補這些職位。我們認為，約翰，另一個可能的 3,000 局，用棒球的比喻來說，第四或第五局就是我們現在所處的位置。其中大部分是透過回收自動化，然後透過從傳統的後裝載到自動側裝載的轉換而產生的。

Toni, the one final point I might make is while inflation is generally coming down. We're not seeing that with our frontline wages, and that's part of the reason why you hear so much conviction about the continued investments in automation and technology, whether it's core business, whether it's recycling facilities. We're still seeing 4.5% to 5.5% on general wage inflation with those frontline roles.

東尼，我可能要說的最後一點是，通貨膨脹總體上正在下降。我們在一線工資中沒有看到這一點，這就是為什麼你聽到如此多的人對自動化和技術的持續投資充滿信心的部分原因，無論是核心業務還是回收設施。我們仍預期這些第一線職位的整體薪資通膨率為 4.5% 至 5.5%。

In fact, we heard from one of our AVPs during the quarterly reviews that we're hiring technicians, and that number starts with a four now, and it's going to start with a five in terms of the rate per hour. So when you look at the investments we're making to try to be a little less labor dependent through attrition, as Jim mentioned, it kind of gives us that much more conviction about those investments.

事實上，我們在季度審查期間從一位 AVP 那裡得知，我們正在招募技術人員，現在這個數字以 4 開頭，就每小時的費率而言，它將以 5 開頭。因此，正如吉姆所提到的，當你看到我們為減少對勞動力的依賴而進行的投資時，這讓我們對這些投資更有信心。

Perfect. Thanks for the color. Congrats on the quarter.

完美的。謝謝你的顏色。恭喜本季。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

傑瑞·雷維奇，高盛。

Hi. Good morning, everyone. For those of us New Yorkers on the line, we'll ask for no more baseball analogies, please. (laughter) So congratulations on the strong results. I just wanted to talk about the returns that we're seeing on the recycling investments, is it possible just to get a sense for the savings per plant that we're budgeting in the program? What are we seeing as the plants are coming online?

你好。大家早安。對於我們這些在線的紐約人，我們不會要求更多的棒球類比。（笑聲）那麼恭喜你取得如此好的成績。我只是想談談我們在回收投資上看到的回報，是否有可能只是了解我們在該計劃中預算的每個工廠的節省費用？當工廠上線時我們看到了什麼？

Typically, when you folks make these automation moves. We've seen the results of price on the upside. I'm wondering, is that starting to play out? And how should we be thinking about the per plant economics versus what you folks underwrote at the beginning of the program?

通常，當人們進行這些自動化操作時。我們已經看到價格上漲的結果。我想知道，這一切開始發生了嗎？我們該如何考慮每台工廠的經濟效益與你們在計劃開始時承保的費用？

Well, what we can tell you is we're tracking a couple of key metrics. The first, and we've said this consistently, the labor cost per ton is really in that 30% improvement range, and that is consistent across all of our plants.

好吧，我們可以告訴您的是，我們正在追蹤幾個關鍵指標。首先，我們一直這麼說，每噸勞動成本確實在 30% 的改進範圍內，而且我們所有工廠的情況都是一致的。

The other thing that we're seeing is roughly 17% higher blended value on the commodities we sell. We're creating a cleaner product, and this is really important. If you think about the commodity prices that we're at today, and we're expecting to end the year around $90 a ton, our investment thesis was $1.25. So getting a higher blended value on our commodities is very important, and that's been proven out.

我們看到的另一件事是我們銷售的商品的綜合價值大約高出 17%。我們正在創造一種更乾淨的產品，這非常重要。如果你考慮我們今天的大宗商品價格，我們預計今年年底價格約為每噸 90 美元，那麼我們的投資理論是 1.25 美元。因此，獲得更高的商品綜合價值非常重要，這一點已經得到證明。

The other thing that we track is our gross operating expenses, and those are also 17% improvement across the portfolio of automation plans. And then the other point that we don't talk about as much is volume, and we are seeing a volume growth story coming out of these investments, which was a pivotal piece of what we were going to be really offering to the communities that we have these investments in.

我們追蹤的另一件事是我們的總營運支出，自動化計畫組合也實現了 17% 的改善。然後，我們不太談論的另一點是數量，我們看到這些投資帶來了數量增長的故事，這是我們真正要向社區提供的關鍵部分擁有這些投資。

And Q3 was one of the first quarters where we've seen that volume growth because we've had some impacts related to shutdowns, so we'll see that transfer across each year. So when you stack those together, we're seeing strong margin improvement on our recycling plants across the portfolio.

第三季是我們看到銷售成長的第一季之一，因為我們受到了與停工相關的一些影響，所以我們每年都會看到這種情況的轉移。因此，當你將這些疊加在一起時，我們發現整個投資組合中的回收工廠的利潤率大幅提高。

And that volume, Tara, is really a function of the plant processing faster, correct?

塔拉，這個體積確實是植物處理速度較快的函數，對嗎？

Exactly. So plants processing faster. We're also expanding the size of some of these plants as we're building them, and it's been a great story when we look at one of the markets John is going to be visiting later today in Minneapolis, where we've seen really, really strong volume growth in that market and then also EBITDA per quarter.

確切地。因此植物處理速度更快。我們還在建造其中一些工廠時擴大了它們的規模，當我們看到約翰今天晚些時候將在明尼阿波利斯參觀的一個市場時，這是一個很棒的故事，我們在那裡看到了真正的，該市場的銷售成長非常強勁，每個季度的 EBITDA 也非常強勁。

I think it's really important to pull all of that together. Tara outlined all of the contributing factors. When we look at the thing that made us so confident in this investment strategy, it really was the payback period of the recycling investments relative to investments we make in our traditional collection and disposal assets.

我認為將所有這些整合在一起非常重要。塔拉概述了所有影響因素。當我們看到讓我們對這項投資策略如此有信心的事情時，這確實是相對於我們在傳統收集和處置資產方面的投資而言，回收投資的投資回收期。

And we've always talked about the recycling investments being one of the best return on invested capital that we have across our portfolio. And we are seeing that not just hold that accelerate. So we're really happy to see payback periods in that six- to seven-year range. And we've got confidence that with some of the outsized performance, particularly on throughput and volume, as Tara outlined, is actually going to be better than what we had planned when we built the strategy despite the lower commodity price values.

我們一直認為回收投資是我們投資組合中投資資本報酬率最高的投資之一。我們看到的不僅僅是保持加速。因此，我們非常高興看到六到七年的投資回收期。我們有信心，正如塔拉所概述的那樣，儘管商品價格較低，但由於一些超額績效，特別是吞吐量和數量，實際上會比我們制定策略時的計劃更好。

Super. And then in terms of the landfill gas facilities that are coming online, roughly speaking of spot market economics. So I think that would imply roughly $150 million to $200 million in incremental EBITDA '25 versus '24 from these plants. Anything we should keep in mind in terms of your contracting strategy or any other moving pieces as we think about that '25 versus '24 bridge on that part of the investment?

極好的。然後就即將上線的垃圾掩埋氣設施而言，粗略地說是現貨市場經濟。因此，我認為這意味著這些工廠的 25 年與 24 年相比將增加約 1.5 億至 2 億美元的 EBITDA。當我們考慮「25」與「24」這部分投資的橋樑時，我們應該牢記您的合約策略或任何其他變化因素嗎？

Sure. I'm glad you brought that up because I think there's a tendency to look at the spot market prices for RINs. And just a reminder, we are taking a portfolio view of our R&D that we're producing and one of the things that we outlined was to really work on contracting more of our volumes.

當然。我很高興您提出這個問題，因為我認為人們傾向於關注 RIN 的現貨市場價格。提醒一下，我們正在對我們正在生產的研發進行投資組合的看法，我們概述的事情之一就是真正致力於承包更多的數量。

So today, we are at about 40% for 2025, and we expect to expand that over the balance of Q4 going into early 2025. And that is a mix of long-term offtake in the voluntary market with utilities and also our ability to forward sell 2025 RINs. And we've been able to do that successfully. So that gives us confidence in really any political environment. Whether or not Trump or Harris gets elected, we're seeing strong forward selling on 2025 RINs.

因此，今天，我們預計 2025 年的成長率約為 40%，我們預計將在第四季度的剩餘時間內擴大到 2025 年初。這是自願市場與公用事業公司的長期承購以及我們遠期銷售 2025 RIN 的能力的結合。我們已經成功地做到了這一點。這讓我們對任何政治環境充滿信心。無論川普或哈里斯是否當選，我們都會看到 2025 年 RIN 的遠期拋售強勁。

It's probably also worth mentioning that just to -- for everyone's kind of clarification on the plants themselves, we tend to think that once the CapEx stops and once the construction is complete, that all of a sudden, these are starting to produce revenue and EBITDA. And there are multiple steps afterwards that are largely outside of our control, the commissioning of the plant, in many cases, the testing of the gas coming out of the plant and then the final step, which is EPA approval of that plant.

也許值得一提的是，對於每個人對工廠本身的澄清，我們傾向於認為，一旦資本支出停止並且一旦建設完成，這些工廠就會突然開始產生收入和 EBITDA 。之後還有多個步驟，這些步驟很大程度上超出了我們的控制範圍，在許多情況下，工廠的調試，對工廠排出的氣體進行測試，然後是最後一步，即 EPA 批准該工廠。

And while we'd like to think that all of those move efficiently, it is government. So in many cases, so it doesn't always move as efficiently as we would -- or as quickly as we would like, which I think is a credit Tara to your team that we're able to get the -- as many plants as we have 20 plants and still stay relatively close to the timelines that we've broadcast, but there are multiple steps beyond just the construction phase.

雖然我們希望所有這些都有效地運作，但這是政府。所以在很多情況下，它並不總是像我們希望的那樣有效率地移動——或者像我們希望的那樣快，我認為這是塔拉對你的團隊的信任，我們能夠得到——盡可能多的植物因為我們有 20 個工廠，而且仍然相對接近我們公佈的時間表，但除了施工階段之外，還有多個步驟。

Super. And Jim, can I ask you just one last one just to pull the thread on the Stericycle comments that you made earlier on the call. Can you just talk about over the course of diligence, what you folks think about the ability to implement lease management type pricing on that business and the ability to cross-sell? So very interesting to hear about the additional opportunity on the cost side. What do you think based on the diligence on the pricing part of the equation?

極好的。吉姆，我可以問你最後一個問題，以拉動你之前在電話會議上發表的關於 Stericycle 的評論嗎？您能否在盡職調查過程中談談您對在該業務上實施租賃管理類型定價的能力以及交叉銷售的能力的看法？聽到成本方面的額外機會非常有趣。基於對等式定價部分的盡職調查，您有何看法？

So as Jim mentioned earlier, all of our diligence and integration planning processes have really spoken to our bullishness with regard to the long-term strategic outlook of this business. With regard to pricing, what I would tell you, Jerry, is this integration planning hasn't been customer oriented.

正如吉姆之前提到的，我們所有的盡職調查和整合規劃流程確實表明了我們對該業務的長期策略前景的樂觀態度。關於定價，傑瑞，我要告訴你的是，這種整合規劃並不是以客戶為導向的。

It's been more about bringing the two teams together, bringing our systems and processes together, and thinking about how we can use the WM way of using technology to optimize our fleet, using technology to optimize the back office in order to reduce the cost of serving in that business.

更多的是把兩個團隊結合在一起，把我們的系統和流程結合在一起，思考我們如何使用WM方式，利用技術來優化我們的車隊，利用技術來優化後台，以降低服務成本在那項業務中。

We'll know more once the Stericycle team is part of WM about the runway and projections on revenue growth. But we still think that the overall investment thesis holds because we think that long-term medical waste is one of those parts of the US economy where we're going to see an outsized growth.

一旦 Stericycle 團隊成為 WM 的一部分，我們就會了解更多關於跑道和收入成長預測的資訊。但我們仍然認為整體投資論點成立，因為我們認為長期醫療廢棄物是美國經濟中我們將看到大幅成長的部分之一。

Yeah, Jerry. Devina touched on it, but I do think when you step back a little bit from it, it's there's elements of that business that fit very nicely over top of WM and if you kind of consider it a fourth line of collection business, right, in terms of trucks and maintenance and repair and labor and efficiency and all the things that we've talked to you folks about over the last couple of years. We think there's benefits down the road or we can overlay those investments and processes to drive some -- drive improvement on the operating side.

是的，傑瑞。Devina 談到了這一點，但我確實認為，當你稍微退一步時，該業務的某些元素非常適合 WM 之上，如果你認為它是集合業務的第四條線，對吧，在卡車、維護、修理、勞動力和效率以及過去幾年我們與大家討論過的所有事情。我們認為未來會有好處，或者我們可以疊加這些投資和流程來推動一些——推動營運方面的改善。

I appreciate the discussion. Thank you.

我很欣賞這次討論。謝謝。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

諾亞凱，奧本海默。

Thanks very much. So in addition to Stericycle pending, you spent a lot on solid waste M&A this year. Can we talk a little bit about that, the types of businesses you're picking up? And then from a housekeeping standpoint, what the rollover contribution is on revenue for '25.

非常感謝。所以除了Stericycle懸而未決之外，今年你們在固廢併購上也花了很多錢。我們可以談談您正在進行的業務類型嗎？然後從內務管理的角度來看，展期對 25 年收入的貢獻是多少。

Yeah, certainly. Yes, we've had a strong year. We closed almost $800 million of acquisitions. I think on the last call we mentioned that we probably could be in the range of $1 billion. And we still feel good about the pipeline, whether that closes in Q4, it rolls a little bit into Q1 is yet to be determined. But we feel good about the pipeline and the deals that we have teed up.

是的，當然。是的，我們度過了強勁的一年。我們完成了近 8 億美元的收購案。我想在上次電話會議中我們提到我們可能會在 10 億美元的範圍內。我們仍然對管道感到滿意，是否會在第四季度關閉，是否會稍微進入第一季還有待確定。但我們對我們已經準備好的管道和交易感到滿意。

I think important to note, we said this on the last call, there's a handful of markets we mentioned Arizona, the Carolinas, Florida, and now, the most recent acquisition of Winters Brothers in Long Island. Those are both represent not only good deals for us, but in strategic markets for a host of different reasons. So we feel really good about that. They're all performing very well to date, and we're focused on trying to get the next handful of deals closed here in the next few months.

我認為值得注意的是，我們在上次電話會議中提到了這一點，我們提到了亞利桑那州、卡羅來納州、佛羅裡達州等幾個市場，現在，最近收購了長島的 Winters Brothers。這些不僅對我們來說是一筆不錯的交易，而且出於多種不同的原因，它們也代表了戰略市場。所以我們對此感覺非常好。到目前為止，它們的表現都非常好，我們的重點是在接下來的幾個月內完成接下來的幾筆交易。

And then, Noah, from a rollover perspective, we see about $150 million of rollover benefit to the revenue line, which we think will translate to about $35 million of EBITDA in 2025.

然後，諾亞，從展期角度來看，我們預計收入線將獲得約 1.5 億美元的展期收益，我們認為這將在 2025 年轉化為約 3500 萬美元的 EBITDA。

Okay. Very helpful there. And then you know what, I'll just stick with short-term modeling housekeeping. So sort of 5% total revenue growth implied for 4Q, your yield trends should probably continue to be pretty healthy. You've got probably what, close to a point here on the M&A side.

好的。那裡非常有幫助。然後你知道嗎，我會繼續做短期的模特兒家事工作。因此，第四季總收入成長 5%，您的收益率趨勢可能會繼續相當健康。您可能已經了解了，接近併購方面的某個點。

So it sounds like almost you think the volume could be kind of flattish. I know you had a tough comp because I think you had some cleanup volumes last year. But we also had some storms this year that might provide some opportunities. So just kind of baseline for us how you're thinking about organic trends for 4Q and whether there would be any upside to the volume side?

所以聽起來你幾乎認為音量可能有點平淡。我知道你們的比賽很艱難，因為我認為你們去年有一些清理工作。但今年我們也遇到了一些風暴，可能會提供一些機會。那麼，這對我們來說是一種基線，您如何看待第四季度的有機趨勢以及銷售方面是否會有任何上升空間？

So the volume story for 2024 has been one for us where the commercial collection business and MSW, which really speak to us about the general health of the overall economy has been really strong over the course of the year and consistent with expectations. The one soft spot for us has been those industrial hauls, and they've been lighter than we expected.

因此，2024 年的捲故事對我們來說是這樣的：商業收集業務和城市固體廢棄物在這一年中確實表現強勁，並且與預期一致，它們真正告訴我們整體經濟的整體健康狀況。我們的一個弱點是工業運輸，而且它們比我們預期的要輕。

And certainly, something that we hear in the marketplace about just a little more reservation on industrial investment in this environment. We think some of that could loosen up in the fourth quarter after there is clarity in the election, but yet to be determined and certainly not something that we're creating guidance outlook on.

當然，我們在市場上聽到的一些說法是，在這種環境下，工業投資要多一些保留。我們認為，在選舉結果明朗之後，其中一些可能會在第四季度放鬆，但尚未確定，而且肯定不是我們正在製定的指導前景。

With respect to the revenue guide for the fourth quarter, it really isn't a volume story where we were reserved on top line relative to Q3, it was commodity price. And so I would tell you, the expectation is take those Q3 volumes that we saw and carry them into Q4 and early 2025 is what our outlook includes.

關於第四季的營收指南，這其實不是一個我們相對於第三季保留在頂線的銷售故事，而是商品價格。因此，我想告訴您，我們的預期是將我們看到的第三季度的銷售帶到第四季度，我們的展望包括 2025 年初。

All right. Very helpful. Thank you.

好的。非常有幫助。謝謝。

Kevin Chiang, CIBC.

凱文·蔣，CIBC。

Hi. Thanks for taking my question, and congrats on a good Q3 print there. I was wondering if you could maybe provide any more color on the Canadian Competition Bureau review. It looks like it's the last one before you close on Stericycle. You've noted you feel comfortable you'll get that done in Q4 here. But just any color in terms of what they're looking at since they filed the SIR. I think you do overlap on pharmaceutical destruction but correct me if I'm wrong. Any color there would be helpful?

你好。感謝您提出我的問題，並祝賀第三季度的出色印刷。我想知道您是否可以提供有關加拿大競爭局審查的更多資訊。看起來這是您關閉 Stericycle 之前的最後一個。您已經注意到，您對在第四季度完成這項工作感到放心。但自從他們提交 SIR 以來，他們所看到的只是任何顏色。我認為你在藥物銷毀方面確實有重疊，但如果我錯了，請糾正我。任何顏色都會有幫助嗎？

So I would say it's typical competition reviews in the Canada market, specifically, nothing that concerns us with regard to the pathway to getting to close and I just have to say thank you to all of our team members who have been working really diligently both the legal team and the Canada operations leadership in order to work through these processes. And we're optimistic that we're going to be able to get that clearance here yet in the fourth quarter and move quickly to close.

因此，我想說，這是加拿大市場的典型競爭審查，具體來說，與我們達成目標的途徑無關，我只想對我們所有的團隊成員表示感謝，他們一直在努力工作法律團隊和加拿大營運領導層，以便完成這些流程。我們樂觀地認為，我們將能夠在第四季度獲得許可並迅速結束。

That's helpful. I may do my second one here, good progress on these cost initiatives. If I look at your OpEx line items, a lot of them, if I look at it from an intensity perspective, let's say, as a percentage of revenue, a lot of them are kind of back to where they were prior to this inflationary environment.

這很有幫助。我可能會在這裡做我的第二件事，這些成本計劃取得了良好進展。如果我看看你們的營運支出項目，其中很多，如果我從強度的角度來看，比方說，作為收入的百分比，其中很多都回到了通膨環境之前的水平。

Maybe the one thing that does stand out to me is maintenance and repairs, tracking kind of mid- to high 9% as a percentage of revenue. I think we've seen that below 9% prior to the move in inflation. Just wondering if there's an opportunity to move that lower? Or is there something structural there that keeps that a little bit more elevated in this new cost environment?

也許對我來說最突出的一件事是維護和維修，佔收入的中高比例為 9%。我認為在通貨膨脹發生之前我們已經看到這個數字低於 9%。只是想知道是否有機會降低這個水平？或者是否有一些結構性因素可以在這個新的成本環境中保持更高的水平？

Yeah, Kevin, I think that's fair. And you're starting to see, I think, this quarter was a 40-basis-point improvement in terms of maintenance and repairs. There's two sides to that. There's the fleet side and the non-fleet side. On the fleet side, we continue to -- a couple of things that are benefiting us.

是的，凱文，我認為這是公平的。我認為，您開始看到本季在維護和維修方面取得了 40 個基點的改進。這有兩個面向。有艦隊側和非艦隊側。在機隊方面，我們繼續做一些讓我們受益的事情。

One is truck deliveries have been more consistent now than they've really been since sort of pre-COVID. So it's allowing us to plan more strategically for assets coming into the system and going out of the system. I will add, when we talk about -- and this is a big part of our strategy, we talk about residential automation, the configuration of that vehicle replacing a rear loader can that truck day one is going to be more expensive to run than a traditional rear loader.

一是卡車送貨現在比新冠疫情爆發前更穩定。因此，它使我們能夠對進入和離開系統的資產進行更具策略性的規劃。我要補充一點，當我們談論——這是我們策略的一個重要組成部分，我們談論住宅自動化，該車輛的配置取代後裝載機，卡車第一天的運行成本會比一輛卡車的運行成本更高傳統的後裝載機。

But what's important to take away from that is we look at it both from an M&R perspective, but we also look at it from a total cost of operation on a per unit basis. So when you double plus the efficiency, we may be willing to pay more to maintain a more complicated vehicle with different technology.

但重要的是我們不僅從 M&R 的角度來看待它，而且我們也從每單位的總營運成本來看待它。因此，當效率加倍時，我們可能願意支付更多費用來維護具有不同技術的更複雜的車輛。

And if it's driving overall CPU performance, which you are seeing, and you're clearly seeing it in the margins. In residential, I think I'm going off the top of my head here, but we were up about 300 basis points-plus for the quarter on 2.9% less volume. And so when you wrap all that together, you're right, there are still opportunities in maintenance and repairs, but we do backstop that against sort of our overall total cost of operation goals.

如果它正在推動整體 CPU 效能，正如您所看到的，並且您可以清楚地看到它處於邊緣狀態。在住宅方面，我認為我有點瘋狂了，但本季我們上漲了約 300 個基點以上，交易量減少了 2.9%。因此，當你將所有這些放在一起時，你是對的，維護和維修仍然有機會，但我們確實根據我們的整體營運總成本目標來支持這一點。

And year to date, our maintenance and repairs cost in this environment are flat effectively on a dollar basis. So it's a good indication of getting leverage off of the truck deliveries, and we expect that momentum to continue into the year ahead.

今年迄今為止，我們在這種環境下的維護和維修成本以美元計算實際上是持平的。因此，這是從卡車交付中獲得槓桿作用的一個很好的跡象，我們預計這種勢頭將持續到未來一年。

That's great color. Thank you very much for taking my questions.

那顏色真棒。非常感謝您回答我的問題。

Trevor Romeo, William Blair.

特雷弗羅密歐、威廉布萊爾。

Hi, good morning. Thank you so much for taking the questions here. I thought maybe it was worth going back to the strong landfill volume growth in the quarter. Total depletable tons up 4%, the MSW up almost 6%. I think that was the strongest you've seen in a while. Devina, I think you mentioned there was some strength in the Midwest, but I was just wondering if you could talk about those landfill dynamics a bit more. Was there anything kind of unusual or onetime in the quarter?

嗨，早安。非常感謝您在這裡提出問題。我認為也許值得回到本季垃圾掩埋量的強勁成長。總消耗噸數增加了 4%，都市固體垃圾增加了近 6%。我認為這是你一段時間以來見過的最強的。Devina，我想你提到中西部有一些實力，但我只是想知道你是否可以多談談這些垃圾掩埋場的動態。本季有什麼不尋常的事情或一次性的事情嗎？

Trevor, I would say we saw a pretty consistent landfill performance through most of the organization. We pointed out there was three or four areas sort of in the middle of the country, if you will, that were the ones that drove the outside performance.

特雷弗，我想說，我們看到整個組織的大部分垃圾掩埋場表現都相當一致。我們指出，如果你願意的話，在該國中部有三、四個地區是推動外部表現的地區。

One in particular is now a rail-served operation that we got opened last year, and we're starting to see continued volume growth there, and that was a chunk of it. That really speaks to sort of the network planning aspect of what we do with our post collection sites, and you folks have heard us talk about that a good bit.

特別是現在我們去年開業的鐵路服務業務，我們開始看到那裡的銷售持續成長，這是其中的一大部分。這確實涉及到我們對帖子收集網站所做的網絡規劃方面的工作，你們已經聽我們談論過很多次了。

So one of the slugs, if you will, volume that helped us in the last couple of quarters is us opening up another intermodal facility in the Midwest. I think Jim commented to our special waste volumes were strong and a good part of that volume was flowing through a handful of those same regions in the middle of the country.

因此，如果你願意的話，過去幾季對我們有幫助的銷售之一是我們在中西部開設了另一個多式聯運設施。我認為吉姆評論說我們的特殊廢物量很大，其中很大一部分流經該國中部的幾個相同地區。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just one quick follow-up on the sustainability CapEx sounds like that's going to come in a little bit higher than you anticipated earlier this year, the $950 million this year and then the $3 billion total. Just wondering is the increase mostly related to cost inflation or something else there? Just any more details on what's driving that? Thank you.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，對永續發展資本支出的快速跟進聽起來會比您今年早些時候的預期稍高一些，今年為 9.5 億美元，然後是 30 億美元。只是想知道這種成長主要與成本通膨還是其他因素有關？能否提供更多有關驅動因素的詳細資訊？謝謝。

It's a mix. Primarily on the renewable natural gas side related to cost inflation on the construction of the plants and then also some higher cost on utility interconnects and those utility interconnects are for our electrical interconnect and our natural gas interconnect. So it's really those two categories.

這是一個混合。主要是在再生天然氣方面，與工廠建設的成本膨脹有關，然後是公用事業互連的成本上漲，這些公用事業互連用於我們的電力互連和天然氣互連。所以這其實是這兩類。

And then I would say the 2024 increase specifically relates to our intentional acceleration in some of the spending into Q4 as we complete these projects and accelerate the ongoing capital investment at the remaining portfolio. So that is really timing related. It's not an indication of the inflation that Tara spoke to.

然後我想說，2024 年的成長具體與我們在完成這些項目並加速剩餘投資組合的持續資本投資時有意加速進入第四季度的部分支出有關。所以這確實是跟時間有關。這並不是塔拉所說的通貨膨脹的跡象。

But we're still on track, though to -- we said last quarter, we expected by the end of this year, we would have spent about 75% of the total capital. That is still the case, almost right at 75%. And then because of the lag, of course, we won't have realized the EBITDA. We will only have realized about 15%, a little bit more, about 15% or 16% of the EBITDA of that $800 million.

但我們仍在正軌上，儘管我們上個季度說過，我們預計到今年年底，我們將花費總資本的約 75%。情況仍然如此，幾乎是 75%。當然，由於滯後，我們將無法實作 EBITDA。我們只能實現這 8 億美元 EBITDA 的約 15%，甚至更多一點，約 15% 或 16%。

So that's part of why we're so encouraged about '25, '26, and '27 is that you really start to see not only the EBITDA growth, but also the free cash flow growth. Because the CapEx really goes away after -- for the most part goes away after next year, and EBITDA really ticks up and free cash.

因此，這就是為什麼我們對「25」、「26」和「27」感到如此鼓舞的部分原因是，您不僅真正開始看到 EBITDA 成長，而且還看到自由現金流成長。因為資本支出實際上會在明年之後消失——大部分會在明年之後消失，而 EBITDA 會真正上升並釋放現金。

Yeah, makes a lot of sense. All right. Thank you, everyone. Appreciate it.

是的，很有道理。好的。謝謝大家。欣賞它。

David Manthey, Baird.

大衛曼蒂，貝爾德。

Thank you. good morning. It was asked earlier, and I'm not sure if I caught it, but did you quantify your expectations for the net impact from hurricanes in the fourth quarter and into 2025? Or could you?

謝謝。早安.早些時候有人問過，我不確定我是否明白了，但您是否量化了對第四季度和 2025 年颶風淨影響的預期？或者你可以嗎？

Yes, David. There's nothing right now that we've quantified for the balance of the year or obviously '25. These storms were obviously historic in a lot of ways, but first and foremost, our people are safe. Our assets were largely untouched first and foremost. In terms of the cleanup, we continue to talk to the teams across the Southeast and specifically Florida.

是的，大衛。目前我們還沒有對今年剩餘時間或顯然是「25」的情況進行量化。這些風暴在許多方面顯然都是歷史性的，但最重要的是，我們的人民是安全的。首先，我們的資產基本上沒有受到影響。在清理方面，我們繼續與東南部尤其是佛羅裡達州的球隊進行交談。

There may be some benefit down the road here, but I don't think it's going to be similar to anything we saw with Hurricane Ian, for example. But there's nothing in our outlook right now regarding any volume we would potentially get from those events.

未來可能會帶來一些好處，但我認為這不會與我們在伊恩颶風中看到的任何情況相似。但目前我們的前景中沒有任何關於我們可能從這些事件中獲得的任何數量的資訊。

Okay. Thank you. And second, is the industrial vertical potential source of upside for you as we get into next year. So if industrial production starts growing low single digits, like maybe we saw in 2012 or 2018 coming out of a downturn, would you expect industrial volume growth to turn positive in that type of environment?

好的。謝謝。其次，當我們進入明年時，工業垂直領域的潛在上升空間來源。因此，如果工業生產開始以低個位數成長，就像我們在 2012 年或 2018 年走出低迷時看到的那樣，您是否預期工業產量在這種環境下會出現正成長？

It's hard to say whether it would turn positive. But certainly, this quarter, we reported negative 4.1% for the roll-off line of business. And we've been pretty consistently in that negative 3.5% to negative 4.5% range. It does tell us that while the overall economy has been pretty healthy, the industrial economy not so much, and that's a good -- that's been not a good, but certainly it's been a sign of that.

很難說是否會轉為正數。但可以肯定的是，本季我們報告的業務轉產率為負 4.1%。我們一直在負 3.5% 到負 4.5% 的範圍內。它確實告訴我們，雖然整體經濟相當健康，但工業經濟卻不太健康，這是一件好事——這不是一件好事，但肯定是一個跡象。

I think you can expect to start to see that come back. Now will it go positive? Don't know. That's a big number to make up. But I would expect that we'll start to see industrial come back. And by the time we get through the election cycle, the uncertainty is kind of out of the system, then I think we could start to see the industrial economy pick back up.

我想你可以期待看到這種情況的回歸。現在會轉正嗎？不知道。這是一個很大的數字。但我預計我們將開始看到工業復甦。當我們完成選舉週期時，不確定性就會從系統中消失，然後我認為我們可以開始看到工業經濟回升。

And from a macro perspective, I do think some of the interest rate environment will be an interesting watch point for us with things like housing starts lagging recently. And if you could start to see some momentum there, although news out this morning isn't all that favorable. So it's one of the things that we have our eye on because this really is about the temporary side of the industrial part of the business rather than the permanent side.

從宏觀角度來看，我確實認為某些利率環境對我們來說將是一個有趣的觀察點，因為最近房屋開工率落後。如果你能開始看到一些勢頭，儘管今天早上傳出的消息並不那麼有利。所以這是我們關注的事情之一，因為這實際上是關於業務工業部分的臨時方面，而不是永久方面。

On the other line of business, that's been negative has been residential. So and that's more by design. I that was down 2.9% for the quarter. It's been down in that range for, I don't know, John, two years. And I think John has been asked the question before, when do you expect that to get back to more of a breakeven.

在另一個業務領域，住宅業的情況一直是負面的。這更多是設計使然。本季下降了 2.9%。約翰，我不知道，它已經在這個範圍內下降了兩年了。我想約翰以前曾被問過這個問題，你預計什麼時候才能恢復損益兩平。

If that is by design, he even mentioned it in his script that we're -- some of the -- we're letting some of the business go that has been underperforming business. That's been ongoing for two or three years now. John, it's probably safe to say that we could expect to get back to flat maybe in the end of '25, early '26. Is that fair?

如果這是故意的，他甚至在劇本中提到，我們——其中一些——我們正在放棄一些表現不佳的業務。這種情況已經持續了兩、三年了。約翰，可以肯定地說，我們可能會在 25 年底、26 年初恢復持平。這樣公平嗎？

Yeah. I mean the team has done a great job. We've got a really healthy inventory of contracts that are not performing up to par. And I think we'll continue to see. It moderated a bit, if you look at year-to-date quarter-over-quarter a bit. But when you look, Jim, at the benefits from efficiency, safety and overall margin improvement, we're going to stay on this path until that line of business competes with the other collection lines, which has been kind of our mission since day one.

是的。我的意思是團隊做得很好。我們有一個非常健康的合約庫存，但未達到標準。我想我們會繼續觀察。如果你仔細觀察今年迄今的季度情況，情況會有所緩和。但是，吉姆，當你看到效率、安全性和整體利潤率提高的好處時，我們將繼續沿著這條道路前進，直到該業務線與其他收集線競爭，這從第一天起就一直是我們的使命。

All right. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

科納克·古普塔，豐業銀行。

Thanks for taking my questions. And I echo my congratulations on a good quarter. I wanted to follow-up on sustainability CapEx. So just like two parts maybe there. I think if I remember correctly, your original $2.2 billion CapEx envelope, was, I think, 50-50 RNG and recycling. Today, that's about $3 billion total.

感謝您回答我的問題。我也對這個季度的良好表現表示祝賀。我想跟進可持續發展資本支出。所以就像可能有兩個部分一樣。我想如果我沒記錯的話，你最初的 22 億美元資本支出信封是 50-50 RNG 和回收。如今，總額約 30 億美元。

What's the split like between RNG and recycling there? And then I think you mentioned that 75% of the CapEx will be done by the end of this year, is 75% of the $3 billion, that's a new number or that's $2.2 billion?

RNG 和回收站之間的分歧如何？然後我想你提到 75% 的資本支出將在今年年底完成，是 30 億美元的 75%，這是一個新數字還是 22 億美元？

Yes. So the original number, the breakdown was roughly $1.2 billion from renewable energy and $1 billion from recycling. And so today, the increased number to $3 billion the 75% is based on the $3 billion and the split is roughly $1.4 billion for recycling and $1.6 billion for renewable energy.

是的。因此，最初的數字約為 12 億美元來自再生能源，10 億美元來自回收。因此，今天，這一數字增加到 30 億美元，其中 75% 是在 30 億美元的基礎上，其中約 14 億美元用於回收，16 億美元用於再生能源。

A portion of that difference, though, Tara, is -- I mean, some of it is inflation, but a portion of it is, for example, in Ontario, right? I mean it's new plants. So it's not really an apples-to-apples when you compare the $3 billion to the $2.2 billion. A piece of it is that's related to inflation, but a piece of it is adding new facilities.

不過，塔拉，這種差異的一部分是——我的意思是，其中一部分是通貨膨脹，但其中一部分是例如在安大略省，對吧？我的意思是這是新植物。因此，當你將 30 億美元與 22 億美元進行比較時，這並不是真正意義上的同類比較。其中一部分與通貨膨脹有關，但一部分與增加新設施有關。

Adding new facilities. That's a great point, Jim. And also, we changed the plants within the renewable energy portfolio. So the plant mix was slightly different. And that's one of the reasons, if you go back to the Investor Day deck, we were projecting $740 million in EBITDA, and that got moved to $800 million.

增加新設施。這是一個很好的觀點，吉姆。此外，我們也改變了再生能源組合中的工廠。所以植物組合略有不同。這就是原因之一，如果你回到投資者日的平台，我們預計 EBITDA 為 7.4 億美元，現在已調整為 8 億美元。

So it's one of the reasons why that was more a contact setting if you go back to the Investor Day. But the numbers that we've outlined and the mix of plants on both sides are different.

因此，如果你回到投資者日，這就是為什麼這更像是一種聯繫的原因之一。但我們概述的數字和兩側植物的組合是不同的。

Got it. That's great. Thanks. And if I can quickly follow up on scaping on margin side of things. So 3.5% was a great number for Q3. Obviously, your implied Q4 is about 30%, call it, maybe you can do a little bit better there. But exiting '24, you're looking at 30%-ish kind of margin right now.

知道了。那太棒了。謝謝。如果我能快速跟進在保證金方面的情況。所以 3.5% 對於第三季來說是一個很大的數字。顯然，你隱含的第四季約為 30%，稱之為，也許你可以在那裡做得更好一點。但從 24 年開始，你現在看到的利潤率大約是 30% 左右。

Like knowing what you know today and like post-election clarity, et cetera, is it fair to expect that your margins can trend sort of in line with what you have seen historically in terms of expansion in 2025 organically, excluding Stericycle?

就像了解你今天所知道的以及選舉後的清晰度等等，是否可以公平地期望你的利潤率可以與你在 2025 年有機擴張方面看到的歷史趨勢一致（不包括 Stericycle）？

Yes, it's a great question, and thank you for excluding Stericycle because it's too early for us to say. But so what I would tell you is over the long term, we've targeted 50 to 100 basis points of margin expansion in the collection and disposal business.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，感謝您排除 Stericycle，因為現在說這個還為時過早。但我要告訴你的是，從長遠來看，我們的目標是將收集和處置業務的利潤率擴大 50 到 100 個基點。

And when we look ahead, all the conversation about the strong execution on efficiency and retention that have driven the best operating expense as a percentage of revenue really that we've seen in our company's history. We expect that to continue, and we expect that to be a driver of continued growth in the year ahead.

當我們展望未來時，所有關於效率和保留方面的強有力執行的討論都推動了營運費用佔收入的最佳百分比，這確實是我們公司歷史上所見過的。我們預計這種情況將持續下去，並預計這將成為未來一年持續成長的動力。

The one caveat that I have to that and it is an important one because it's larger for us than it is for our competitors, is there is the expiration of the alternative fuel tax credit in 2025? That's about $60 million of EBITDA and a 30-basis-point headwind to margin in the year ahead. So the $50 million to $100 million, I would tell you, bring down by that 30 basis points for the range. But we're targeting that same execution for 2025.

我有一個警告，這是一個重要的警告，因為它對我們來說比對我們的競爭對手來說更大，替代燃料稅收抵免是否會在 2025 年到期？這相當於約 6000 萬美元的 EBITDA，並且未來一年的利潤率將面臨 30 個基點的阻力。因此，我會告訴你，5,000 萬至 1 億美元的區間將下降 30 個基點。但我們的目標是在 2025 年執行同樣的任務。

And then when we look at the sustainability businesses, that's incremental upside for us. And we see the sustainability businesses. The renewable energy business provided 30 basis points of margin expansion for us in the third quarter of 2024. And we think when we look ahead to a full-year contribution from the five facilities that Jim and Tara have talked about bringing online by the end of 2024, we see another 30 basis points of expansion from this level.

然後，當我們審視永續發展業務時，這對我們來說是增量的好處。我們看到了可持續發展業務。再生能源業務在 2024 年第三季為我們提供了 30 個基點的利潤擴張。我們認為，當我們展望 Jim 和 Tara 談到的 2024 年底上線的 5 個設施的全年貢獻時，我們會看到在此基礎上再擴張 30 個基點。

That's great. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

那太棒了。我會把它留在那裡。謝謝。

Jim Schumm, TD Cowen.

吉姆·舒姆，TD·考恩。

Hey, good morning. Thanks, guys. So you touched on this, but now that you've had some more time to spend on Stericycle, I'm wondering if there's a reason why this business might require a structurally higher SG&A cost structure as a percentage of sales relative to WM.

嘿，早安。謝謝，夥計們。所以您談到了這一點，但現在您已經有更多的時間花在Stericycle 上，我想知道是否有原因導致該業務可能需要結構性更高的SG&A 成本結構（佔銷售額的百分比）（相對於WM）。

So I think it's really a great point, and it's one that we're not taking for granted. And I think it's their ERP journey is one that has gotten a lot of attention, rightfully so, both internally and externally. And bringing all of their disparate businesses onto a single platform has been a significant undertaking, and we're commending them for all of that hard work and that effort.

所以我認為這確實是一個很好的觀點，而且我們不會認為這是理所當然的。我認為他們的 ERP 之旅受到了內部和外部的廣泛關注，這是理所當然的。將他們所有不同的業務整合到一個平台上是一項艱鉅的任務，我們讚揚他們的辛勤工作和努力。

What I would tell you is that when you have that kind of an undertaking for call it, a $2.5 billion to $3 billion revenue business, and you compare that to a similar undertaking for a $20 billion-plus business, that's one of the things that will be structurally different between the two. And we anticipated that when we evaluated the acquisition opportunity.

我要告訴你的是，當你有這樣一個承諾，一個 25 億至 30 億美元收入的業務，並將其與一個 200 億美元以上業務的類似承諾進行比較時，這就是兩者之間的結構會有所不同。當我們評估收購機會時，我們就預料到了這一點。

That really is the one that we think stands out. The rest of it, we think there's tremendous opportunity and upside to use the WM way, so to speak, in order to optimize SG&A as a percentage of revenue long term.

這確實是我們認為最突出的一個。剩下的，我們認為使用 WM 方式有巨大的機會和優勢，可以這麼說，以便長期優化 SG&A 在收入中的百分比。

Well, you've said before, Devina, that's really the ultimate comparison, once you get past the ERP rollout, the ultimate comparison would be to one of our areas as opposed to our corporate SG&A, which came in at 8.9%. And our areas, James operated 5%. So it's why we're enthusiastic about what SG&A as a percent of revenue can look like for us and what the synergies are associated with that.

好吧，德維娜，你之前說過，這確實是最終的比較，一旦你完成了ERP 的部署，最終的比較將是與我們的一個領域相比，而不是我們公司的SG&A，後者的比率為8.9%。而我們的地區，詹姆斯經營著5%。因此，我們對 SG&A 佔收入的百分比以及與之相關的協同效應充滿熱情。

I think Tara makes the right point about -- not Tara -- Devina makes the right point about the ERP and that having to get fully rolled out and there being costs associated with that. But once that is complete, then there's no reason to start that we wouldn't start to think about the Stericycle arm of our business looking more like one of our areas.

我認為塔拉 (Tara) 的觀點是正確的，而不是塔拉 (Tara)，德維娜 (Devina) 的觀點是正確的，即 ERP 以及必須全面推出以及與之相關的成本。但一旦完成，我們就沒有理由不開始考慮我們業務的 Stericycle 部門看起來更像我們的領域之一。

With respect to OCC, can you update us on the portion of the value that, that makes up in your recycling revenues? And has that changed at all with your new recycling facility upgrades?

關於 OCC，您能否向我們介紹一下您的回收收入中所佔價值的最新情況？隨著您的新回收設施升級，這種情況是否改變了？

So it represents about 55% to 60% of our overall blended value. And what has changed over time with our automated investment is we're able to capture a bit more OCC through some of the quality improvements that we've made in our plans and move really more of our mixed paper to a higher-value product. So that's been a real bright spot for us when you think about our automation investments.

因此它約占我們整體混合價值的 55% 到 60%。隨著時間的推移，我們的自動化投資發生了變化，我們能夠透過計劃中的一些品質改進來獲得更多的 OCC，並將更多的混合紙張轉化為更高價值的產品。因此，當您考慮我們的自動化投資時，這對我們來說是一個真正的亮點。

Thank you, Tara. And just to clarify, so OCC and mixed paper sort of office paper that all sort of -- are you saying like the fiber base is 55% to 60% of the value or just OCC?

謝謝你，塔拉。澄清一下，OCC 和混合紙類辦公用紙——您是說纖維基佔價值的 55% 到 60% 還是只是 OCC？

Yeah, OCC.

是的，奧委會。

All together? Oh, just OCC specifically. Okay, great. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

都在一起嗎？哦，具體來說就是 OCC。好的，太好了。非常感謝。欣賞它。

Tobey Sommer, Truist Securities.

托比·索默（Tobey Sommer），Truist 證券公司。

Thank you. If the normalization process for fleet supply chain, and employee retention has normally played out, do you think there's an incremental opportunity for retention to improve further into next year? And I was hoping you could contrast the company's experience with what you're seeing in fleet, supply chain, and employee retention and sort of labor expense in the potential acquisition targets that you look at.

謝謝。如果車隊供應鏈和員工留任率正常化進程正常進行，您認為明年是否有機會進一步提高留任率？我希望你能將該公司的經驗與你在車隊、供應鏈、員工保留率以及你所關注的潛在收購目標中的勞動力支出方面看到的情況進行對比。

Yes, it's a good point. I think, as I mentioned earlier, the fact that we frankly have a stability in our fleet delivery schedule we haven't had in a number of years is really paying dividends, not just on total M&R as a percentage or CPU, but also in our ability to really manage our asset base better and make sure that we're optimizing the number of assets we have, in this case, vehicles.

是的，這是一個好點。我認為，正如我之前提到的，坦白說，我們的車隊交付計劃保持了多年來從未有過的穩定性，這一事實確實帶來了紅利，不僅體現在總M&R 百分比或CPU 方面，也體現在我們有能力真正更好地管理我們的資產基礎，並確保我們優化我們擁有的資產數量，在本例中是車輛。

I mentioned the one area of pressure, we still see specific to M&R and really across labor is still wage pressure. That's probably in the 4.5% to 5.5%, maybe 6% in some markets. So we continue to obviously make the necessary adjustments there.

我提到了一個壓力領域，我們仍然看到具體到 M&R，而且真正跨勞動力的仍然是工資壓力。這可能是 4.5% 到 5.5%，在某些市場可能是 6%。因此，我們顯然會繼續在那裡進行必要的調整。

And I think the punch line is our retention for drivers and technicians is around 19%. It's a little lower for drivers, a little higher for technicians. But even in that environment, we're still bringing the defection of our employees down, which is obviously having a big benefit.

我認為最重要的是我們的司機和技術人員的保留率約為 19%。對於駕駛員來說要低一點，對於技術人員來說要高一點。但即使在這種環境下，我們仍然可以降低員工的叛逃率，這顯然有很大的好處。

And then lastly, with respect to the -- some of the operations we've purchased, I mentioned a few that we've done this year. While they've been really, really well-run companies, I think one of the places we get leverage out of is what you've heard Jim and Devina and I referenced, which is sort of our WM Way playbook. And we see that as a way to capture additional value when we go into even a well-run operation.

最後，關於我們購買的一些業務，我提到了我們今年所做的一些業務。雖然他們一直是經營得非常非常好的公司，但我認為我們獲得影響力的地方之一就是你所聽到的 Jim 和 Devina 以及我提到的，這有點像我們的 WM Way 劇本。我們認為，即使在營運良好的情況下，這也是獲取額外價值的一種方式。

But we put the strength of our supply chain, our operating team and all the tools and technology they come with. That's one of the areas we continue to see upside.

但我們投入了供應鏈、營運團隊以及他們附帶的所有工具和技術的優勢。這是我們繼續看到上漲的領域之一。

Thanks. And what are your thoughts about incremental investments into harvesting the remaining MMBtus in the company's portfolio? Understanding that near term, you've got cash uses related to acquisition-led growth that may mean it's not sort of a near-term choice.

謝謝。您對於透過增量投資來收穫公司投資組合中剩餘的 MMBtus 有何看法？了解近期情況後，您會發現與收購帶動的成長相關的現金使用情況，這可能意味著這不是短期選擇。

So we've actively looked at, and we have a beat on how much landfill gas that we have that we could really convert into R&D through new investments. And it's important to note the first 20 that we built, they tend to be larger plants where we had more landfill gas.

因此，我們積極研究了我們擁有多少垃圾掩埋氣，我們可以透過新投資真正將其轉化為研發。重要的是要注意我們建造的前 20 座工廠，它們往往是較大的工廠，我們有更多的垃圾掩埋氣體。

So we're taking a much more prescriptive approach on the next tranche and really evaluating whether or not we should be developing them ourselves or perhaps leveraging a partner for those. That's something we'll likely make a decision on in 2025.

因此，我們對下一部分採取了更規範的方法，並真正評估我們是否應該自己開發它們，或者也許利用合作夥伴來開發它們。我們可能會在 2025 年做出決定。

I think it's really important to make a statement about the cash flow generation power of this business. While we're going to see a step change in our leverage with the closing of the Stericycle acquisition, we expect to return to target leverage ratios within 18 to 24 months of closing the transaction.

我認為對這項業務的現金流產生能力做出聲明非常重要。雖然隨著 Stericycle 收購的完成，我們的槓桿率將發生階躍變化，但我們預計槓桿率將在交易完成後 18 至 24 個月內恢復到目標槓桿率。

And really, when you step back and look at the fact that before adding Stericycle to WM and before the step change that we're talking about coming in 2027 in free cash flow associated with the sustainability businesses, we're generating over $3 billion annually in free cash flow.

事實上，當你退一步看一下這樣一個事實時，在將Stericycle 添加到WM 之前，以及在我們談論的2027 年與可持續發展業務相關的自由現金流發生階躍變化之前，我們每年產生超過30億美元的收入在自由現金流。

And so that indicates that our ability to use, call it, $6 billion over a two-year period in order to meet the dividend and then have substantial free cash flow for the benefit of growth, for the benefit of balance sheet rationalization, it just speaks to the strong fundamentals of this business and our ability to have strategic runway in the sustainability business if we continue to see the return profile of those opportunities present themselves at the highest and best use of our funds.

因此，這表明我們有能力在兩年內使用 60 億美元來支付股息，然後擁有大量自由現金流以促進增長，以實現資產負債表合理化，這只是這說明了該業務的強大基礎，以及如果我們繼續看到這些機會以最高和最佳方式利用我們的資金帶來的回報，我們就有能力在永續發展業務中擁有戰略跑道。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sabahat Khan, RBC Capital.

薩巴哈特汗 (Sabahat Khan)，加拿大皇家銀行資本 (RBC Capital)。

Great. Thanks, and good morning. Just a quick question on the investment tax credits related to a lot of these investments. Our understanding is these are sort of being accrued. Is there any risk to those with the change in administration? Or just kind of if you can highlight the process to getting those paid or just guaranteed? Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝，早安。只是一個關於與許多此類投資相關的投資稅收抵免的簡單問題。我們的理解是這些都是累積的。行政管理變動對那些人有什麼風險嗎？或者您可以強調獲得這些報酬或只是得到保證的過程？謝謝。

Yes. So we're not thinking about there being risk associated with the change in administration. But that certainly is something that could be on the table, but it's very difficult for us to be able to project. But with regard to what we've been accruing, there's $145 million in 2024, and that's showing up both as a reduction in cash taxes and a reduction in our provision on the income statement.

是的。因此，我們沒有考慮與行政管理變動相關的風險。但這當然是可以擺在桌面上的事情，但我們很難預測。但就我們已計入的金額而言，2024 年將有 1.45 億美元，這既表現為現金稅​​的減少，也表現為損益表撥備的減少。

We see the downside risk associated with really two things. One is solely timing. And if we saw one of our projects slip into 2025 in the first quarter, we wouldn't get that (inaudible) the complexity of the IRA and specifically, the applicability of the domestic content rules. We've evaluated those, and we think that the team is doing all of the right work, but the devils in the details when it comes to tax legislation.

我們看到與兩件事相關的下行風險。一是純粹的時機。如果我們看到我們的一個專案在第一季滑入 2025 年，我們將無法了解（聽不清楚）IRA 的複雜性，特別是國內內容規則的適用性。我們已經對這些進行了評估，我們認為團隊正在做所有正確的工作，但在稅收立法方面的細節卻很糟糕。

And so while we think we've done the right thing, it will come down to interpretation. We've taken that into account as well in providing our guidance, but that won't be finalized within a year. That will be something that continues as we have the IRS review our findings.

因此，雖然我們認為我們做了正確的事情，但最終取決於解釋。我們在提供指導時也考慮到了這一點，但不會在一年內最終確定。當美國國稅局審查我們的調查結果時，這種情況將會持續下去。

And just as a reminder, that last part that Devina mentioned, it's the difference between 30% and 40%. And so we're confident we would get the 30%. It's really just the difference between 30% and 40% on ITC.

提醒一下，德維娜提到的最後一部分是 30% 和 40% 之間的差異。因此，我們有信心獲得 30% 的份額。這其實只是 ITC 上 30% 和 40% 之間的差異。

Great. I appreciate that color. And then just a question as a follow-up to the earlier discussion around base business margin improvement and the offsetting impact from Stericycle. I guess as you get a closer look at the business, would you come back maybe after it closes, potentially Q4 reporting and maybe give a path towards how long it may take to get consolidated margins sort of back in positive territory?

偉大的。我很欣賞那種顏色。然後是一個問題，作為先前關於基礎業務利潤率改善和 Stericycle 的抵消影響的討論的後續問題。我想，當您更仔細地了解該業務時，您是否會在該業務關閉後回來，可能會發布第四季度報告，並可能給出一條可能需要多長時間才能使合併利潤率恢復到正值的路徑？

Or is that something may evolve over a few years? Just trying to get an understanding of how you think about consolidated margins and the journey over the next couple or two to three years or however you look at it. Thanks.

或者這可能會在幾年內發生變化？只是想了解您如何看待合併利潤率以及未來幾年或兩到三年的旅程，或者無論您如何看待它。謝謝。

Yes. I think what we'll do is -- I mean, they're -- I believe the last I looked, their margins are kind of in the 17% -- 16%, 17% range, something like that. And when you start looking at the opportunities we have with synergies, we have not, as Devina said earlier, had a chance to look at their customer base at all. So we don't know what that means in terms of cross-selling or any of the top line.

是的。我認為我們要做的是——我的意思是，他們——我相信我最後一次查看時，他們的利潤率在 17%——16%、17% 左右，類似這樣。當你開始審視我們的協同效應機會時，正如德維娜之前所說，我們根本沒有機會了解他們的客戶群。所以我們不知道這對交叉銷售或任何營收意味著什麼。

But we do think that we can improve it from where it is today, their margins are today because of those things. I think it will take us at least until February to be able to assess what Stericycle we think will look like obviously, for '25, but into '26, '27.

但我們確實認為我們可以在今天的基礎上進行改進，由於這些事情，他們今天的利潤率很高。我認為我們至少要到二月才能評估我們認為的Stericycle在25年、26年、27年會是什麼樣子。

When we'll be able to get back to kind of 30% on a combined basis? It's a little hard to say. As Devina said, you do have something working in our favor, which is the sustainability businesses and then our own improvement through the use of technology and John has gone through a lot of the operating improvements.

我們什麼時候能夠恢復到 30% 的綜合水準？有點難說。正如德維娜所說，確實有一些對我們有利的東西，那就是永續發展業務，然後我們透過使用科技進行自我改進，約翰已經經歷了很多營運改進。

So you've got things working in both directions. I think it's very hard to say what the margin will be right now. But I think when we get to February and we give guidance, we can give you a better idea of that.

所以你的事情是雙向的。我認為現在很難說利潤是多少。但我認為，當我們到了二月並提供指導時，我們可以讓您更好地了解這一點。

Great. Thank you very much for that.

偉大的。非常感謝你。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮·摩爾，杰弗里斯。

Hi, good morning. Thank you. One maybe one high level strategic question for me. I appreciate maybe the incremental commentary provided about the updated productivity at your new recycling facilities, whether it's productivity or throughput or the like.

嗨，早安。謝謝。對我來說，這也許是一個高階戰略問題。我很欣賞關於您的新回收設施的更新生產力的增量評論，無論是生產力還是吞吐量等。

Is there any way you could then frame what some of these facilities are doing from a margin standpoint? Obviously, it wouldn't be completely apples-to-apples given allocating corporate costs. But just so we can think about truly what the margin differential is kind of pre and closed upgrades. Thank you.

有沒有什麼方法可以從利潤的角度來描述其中一些設施正在做什麼？顯然，考慮到分配企業成本，這不會完全是同類的。但正是這樣我們才能真正思考升級前和結束後的保證金差異是多少。謝謝。

So rather than give you specific margins on the business, what I think is important is that we bring it all together and say, from a return on invested capital perspective and a margin expansion perspective, we've effectively seen a 10-percentage-point increase in the margin of the business post automation. And that's a really strong indication of the power of the technology. And whether that be top line growth or middle of the P&L management cost reduction, we're seeing the benefits on each part of the model, and that's about a 10-percentage-point lift in margin.

因此，我認為重要的是，我們將所有這些結合起來，從投資資本回報率和利潤擴張的角度來看，我們實際上已經看到了 10 個百分點，而不是給你具體的業務利潤率。業務利潤的增加。這確實有力地表明了該技術的力量。無論是營收成長還是損益管理成本降低，我們都看到了該模型每個部分的好處，即利潤率提高了約 10 個百分點。

Great. And that's helpful. And then just one quick follow-up. On OCC pricing expectations for the fourth quarter, what are your underlying assumptions embedded in those.

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後只是一個快速跟進。關於 OCC 對第四季的定價預期，您的基本假設是什麼？

Our underlying assumptions for our blended commodity basket in Q4 is $85 a ton.

我們對第四季混合商品籃子的基本假設是每噸 85 美元。

Got it. Great. Thanks so much.

知道了。偉大的。非常感謝。

Brian Butler, Stifel.

布萊恩巴特勒，斯蒂菲爾。

Hey. Good morning, Waste Management. Thanks for fitting me in. Just one last quick one, I guess, on the commodity side. Now that you've kind of improved the facilities in automation, do you have a sensitivity to commodity price? So if that $85 changes, how should we think about the impact on maybe an annualized EBITDA.

嘿。早上好，廢棄物管理。謝謝你讓我融入。我想，這只是最後一個快速的問題，是在大宗商品方面。現在你們的自動化設施已經有所改善，你們對商品價格有敏感度嗎？因此，如果 85 美元發生變化，我們應該如何考慮對年化 EBITDA 的影響。

Well, the way to think about it, and we've said this previously, is about 60% of the benefit related to our automation plants is really independent of commodity prices, and that's the labor cost. That's the uplift that we get on blended values because we're producing a higher-quality product. And we're definitely seeing those flow through when we bring these automated plants online. So there's less of a sensitivity to commodity prices, but there still is a sensitivity that exists in the business.

好吧，我們之前已經說過，與我們的自動化工廠相關的大約 60% 的收益實際上與商品價格無關，這就是勞動成本。這就是我們在混合價值觀上得到的提升，因為我們正在生產更高品質的產品。當我們將這些自動化工廠上線時，我們肯定會看到這些流程。因此，對大宗商品價格的敏感度較低，但業務中仍存在敏感度。

Okay. And then I guess on the automation side, on the automated routes, you talked about 800 routes over the last couple of years being automated. Can you put that into perspective, how many more routes could be automated and how long would something like that take?

好的。然後我想在自動化方面，在自動化路線上，您談到過去幾年有 800 條路線實現了自動化。您能否正確看待這一點，還有多少條路線可以自動化以及類似的事情需要多長時間？

I think we've got about 11 more, 100 routes that are eligible to be automated. And I would tell you, it's at least two years and probably into the third year before we cycle through all of them. But as I mentioned, I mean, from an efficiency margin safety standpoint, go down the list, we're even though we're trading off a little bit of volume, it's obviously from an investment perspective, been a fantastic effort by the team.

我認為我們還有大約 11 條、100 條路線有資格實現自動化。我想告訴你，至少需要兩年時間，甚至可能到第三年，我們才會經歷這一切。但正如我所提到的，我的意思是，從效率邊際安全的角度來看，我們即使犧牲了一點交易量，這顯然是從投資的角度來看，團隊付出了巨大的努力。

Some of it, John, is a function of the contract itself. It's not necessarily getting the truck, but it's the contract expiration. If you've got a contract that is a three-year contract that is pick up everything contract, and you're going to transition to an ASL contract that has to be negotiated by the public sector team and at the end of the existing scope of the project.

約翰，其中一些是合約本身的功能。不一定是拿到卡車，而是合約到期。如果您的合同是三年期合同，涵蓋所有合同，並且您將過渡到 ASL 合同，該合同必須由公共部門團隊在現有範圍結束時進行談判項目的。

Thank you. And I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Jim Fish, President and CEO, for any closing remarks.

謝謝。現在，我將把電話轉回給總裁兼執行長吉姆·菲什 (Jim Fish) 先生，讓其發表結束語。

Okay. Well, thank you so much for your great questions today. We feel very good about the quarter. We feel very optimistic about the remainder of the year and into '25, '26, '27. We're excited to be in this business at this point. But thank you very much. We will talk to you soon, and talk to you next quarter.

好的。嗯，非常感謝您今天提出的好問題。我們對本季感覺非常好。我們對今年剩餘時間以及 25 年、26 年和 27 年感到非常樂觀。我們很高興此時能從事這項業務。但非常感謝你。我們很快就會與您交談，並在下個季度與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。