Walker & Dunlop Inc (WD) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Please stand by.

請稍候。

Good day and welcome to the Q3 2024 Walker and Dunlop earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded at this time. I would like to turn the conference over to Kelsey Duffy. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Walker 和 Dunlop 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的會議此時正在錄製中。我想把會議交給凱爾西·達菲。請繼續。

Thank you, Ruth. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Walker and Dunlop's third quarter, 2024 earnings call I have with me this morning, our Chairman and CEO Willy Walker and our CFO Greg Swarowsky.

謝謝你，露絲。大家早安。感謝您參加今天早上 Walker 和 Dunlop 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議，我們的董事長兼執行長 Willy Walker 以及我們的財務長 Greg Swarowsky。

This call is being webcast live on our website and a recording will be available later today. Both our earnings press release and website provide details on accessing the archive webcast. This morning, we posted our earnings release and presentation to the investor relations section of our website. Www dot Walker Dunlop dotcom. These slides serve as a reference point for some of what Willy and Gride will touch on during the call. Please also note that we will reference the non-GAAP financial metrics adjusted EBITA and adjusted core EPS during the course of this call. Please refer to the appendix of the earnings presentation for a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial metrics. Investors are urged to carefully read the forward-looking statements language in our earnings release statements made on this call, which are not historical facts may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1,995. Forward-looking statements describe our current expectations and actual results may differ materially. Walker and Dunlop is under no obligation to update or alter our forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. And we expressly disclaim any obligation to do so. More detailed information about risk factors can be found in our annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC. I will now turn the call over to Willie.

該電話會議正在我們的網站上進行網路直播，錄音將於今天晚些時候提供。我們的收益新聞稿和網站都提供了有關存取存檔網路廣播的詳細資訊。今天早上，我們在網站的投資者關係部分發布了收益報告和簡報。Www 點 Walker Dunlop 網路公司。這些幻燈片可作為威利和格萊德在通話期間討論的一些內容的參考點。另請注意，我們將在本次電話會議期間參考非 GAAP 財務指標調整後的 EBITA 和調整後的核心每股盈餘。請參閱收益報告的附錄，以了解這些非公認會計準則財務指標的調整表。我們敦促投資者仔細閱讀我們在本次電話會議上發布的收益發布聲明中的前瞻性聲明，這些聲明不是歷史事實，可能會被視為1,995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性聲明。前瞻性陳述描述了我們目前的預期，與實際結果可能有重大差異。Walker 和 Dunlop 沒有義務因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因更新或更改我們的前瞻性陳述。我們明確表示不承擔任何這樣做的義務。有關風險因素的更多詳細資訊可以在我們向 SEC 提交的年度和季度報告中找到。我現在將把電話轉給威利。

Thank you, Kelsey and good morning everyone.

謝謝你，凱爾西，大家早安。

Our third quarter financial results reflect an improving market that benefited from healthy fundamentals and commercial real estate that are attracting capital to the market and driving the increase in acquisition and financing activity.

我們第三季的財務表現反映了市場的改善，受益於健康的基本面和商業房地產，吸引資本進入市場並推動收購和融資活動的增加。

It is our expectation, the market continues to improve over the next several years and that our investments in the people of Walker and Dunlop, our brand and our technology position us very well to grow our financial results on the top and bottom line and continue expanding our market presence in the commercial real estate financing and services market.

我們預計，市場在未來幾年將繼續改善，我們對 Walker 和 Dunlop 員工、我們的品牌和技術的投資使我們能夠很好地提高我們的財務表現並繼續擴張我們在商業房地產融資和服務市場的市場佔有率。

We closed $11.6 billion of total transaction volume in Q3, up 36% from Q3, 2023 and up 37% sequentially from Q2, 2024.

第三季我們完成了 116 億美元的總交易量，比 2023 年第三季成長 36%，比 2024 年第二季成長 37%。

It increased deal flow and revenues. It grew delivered earnings per share, 33% year over year to 85¢ per share.

它增加了交易流量和收入。每股交付收益年增 33%，達到每股 85 美分。

Adjusted E BT A and adjusted core EPS which strip out non cash revenues and expenses were both up 7% showed on slide 4 $11.6 billion of Q3 transaction volume included $3.6 billion of property sales. Up 44% year over year, property sales volume grew from 1.2 billion in Q1 to 1.5 billion in Q2 to 3.6 billion in Q3. And with a healthy Q4 pipeline shows a terrific trend in multi family sales activity.

投影片4 中顯示，調整後的稅前利潤(EBT A) 和調整後的核心每股盈餘(扣除非現金收入和支出) 均成長7%，第三季交易額為116 億美元，其中包括36億美元的房地產銷售。年比成長44%，房地產銷售量從第一季的12億成長到第二季的15億，再到第三季的36億。第四季的銷售通路健康，顯示出多戶型銷售活動的驚人趨勢。

All these volumes are still well below our pre tightening peak in Q2 of 2022 our national presence, an exceptional brand will allow us to scale transaction volume significantly without adding head count.

所有這些交易量仍遠低於 2022 年第二季緊縮前的峰值，我們的全國業務，一個卓越的品牌將使我們能夠在不增加人員數量的情況下大幅擴大交易量。

Danny Mae and Freddie Mac were sluggish market participants in the first half of the year but both stepped back into the market in the third quarter.

丹尼梅和房地美上半年市場表現低迷，但第三季均重新回歸市場。

We closed $3.5 billion of loans with the GSES in Q3. A welcome pickup in volume.

我們在第三季向 GSES 結清了 35 億美元的貸款。成交量的回升值得歡迎。

The other day, the GSE is deployed a combined $68 billion and have plenty of lending capacity in Q4 before they get close to their $140 billion 2024 lending caps.

前幾天，GSE 總共部署了 680 億美元，並且在接近 2024 年 1,400 億美元的貸款上限之前，第四季度擁有充足的貸款能力。

Our GSE financing pipeline is robust, setting us up for a strong finish with both Fannie and Freddie.

我們的 GSE 融資管道十分強勁，為我們與房利美和房地美的合作奠定了堅實的基礎。

We will continue booking non cash, MS RS to drive future cash earnings and adjusted E BT A.

我們將繼續預訂非現金、MS RS，以推動未來的現金收入和調整後的 E BT A。

The three factors that can contribute to an increase in MS R revenue for higher GSC loan volumes, higher servicing fees and longer loan duration.

更高的 GSC 貸款量、更高的服務費和更長的貸款期限可能有助於增加 MS R 收入的三個因素。

We saw a meaningful uptick in GSE loan volumes in Q3 and as such, MS R revenue was up 23% year over year.

我們看到第三季 GSE 貸款量顯著增加，因此 MS R 營收年增 23%。

The other two variables, average servicing fee and loan duration did not change significantly in Q3 from the previous several quarters and are still below our historical averages.

另外兩個變數平均服務費和貸款期限在第三季與前幾季相比沒有顯著變化，仍然低於我們的歷史平均值。

Servicing fees which compressed dramatically as interest rates and borrowing costs rose should revert to historic levels as the yield curve and rates normalize with regard to duration. Borrowers have been picking shorter duration typically five years. So they're borrowing with the belief that rates will come back down depending on the rate environment and the US government's fiscal outlook. It is our assumption that borrowers start going long again and increasing loan terms back to 10 years.

隨著利率和借貸成本上升，服務費大幅壓縮，隨著殖利率曲線和利率在久期方面的正常化，服務費應該會恢復到歷史水準。借款人選擇較短的期限，通常為五年。因此，他們借貸時相信利率會根據利率環境和美國政府的財政前景而回落。我們假設借款人再次開始做多，並將貸款期限延長至 10 年。

Given that mortgage servicing rights are the present value of future servicing income continued increases in loan volume with a reversion to normalized servicing fees and term should have a significant impact on W and DS revenues and GAAP earnings over the next cycle.

鑑於抵押貸款服務權是未來服務收入的現值，貸款量的持續增加以及恢復正常服務費和期限應該會對下一個週期的 W 和 DS 收入以及 GAAP 收益產生重大影響。

W&D affordable housing is an important growth area as Fannie Freddie and hud focus on affordable lending and the need for low income housing tax credits expands.

隨著房利美房地美(Fannie Freddie) 和住房和住房發展部(HUD) 專注於負擔得起的貸款以及低收入住房稅收抵免的需求不斷擴大，W&D 經濟適用房是一個重要的增長領域。

Our hud lending volumes grew over 200% to $272 million in Q3. While W&D affordable equity revenues were down 37% due to a decline in tax credit syndications and asset dispositions during the quarter.

第三季度，我們的 HUD 貸款金額成長了 200% 以上，達到 2.72 億美元。由於本季稅收抵免銀團和資產處置的減少，W&D 可負擔股票收入下降了 37%。

W&D affordable equity has been a very consistent contributor to our financial performance and we are confident that syndication disposition volumes will pick up the growth in hud volumes on the quarter is fantastic to see. And due to our team's strong finish to the hud fiscal year, have UN D moved up from the fifth largest hud multi family lender in the country to the second largest in 2024.

W&D 負擔得起的股票一直是我們財務業績的一個非常穩定的貢獻者，我們相信銀團處置量將加快本季度 HUD 交易量的增長，這是非常令人高興的。由於我們團隊在 HUD 財政年度的出色完成，UN D 已從該國第五大 HUD 多家庭貸款機構躍升至 2024 年第二大。

This is wonderful news. It makes W&D number one with Fannie, number two with HUD and number three with Freddie. This is exactly the success and scale we envision for W&D in the agency financing market.

這是個好消息。它使《W&D》中的房利美排名第一，HUD 排名第二，房地美排名第三。這正是我們對 W&D 在代理融資市場上的成功與規模的預期。

We ended the third quarter with $134 billion servicing portfolio that continues to generate stable recurring revenues with very strong underlying credit fundamentals.

截至第三季末，我們的服務組合達到 1,340 億美元，該組合繼續產生穩定的經常性收入，並具有非常強勁的基礎信貸基本面。

The cash flows from servicing bolstered Walker and deps adjusted core EPS and adjusted E BP A throughout the great tightening and we will continue to generate consistent high margin earnings going forward as we enter the next cycle growth and loan origination volumes will increase mortgage servicing rights. We book and provide the opportunity to raise and deploy more capital at Walker and investment partners, servicing and asset management revenues that these two businesses generate are wonderful sources of revenue and earnings in upcycles and also paramount in down cycles. This is W and Ds long standing business model is the capital markets platform that helps our clients acquire and finance assets and upmarkets and also have the recurring revenue streams from servicing and asset management to weather the inevitable down cycles in commercial real estate.

在整個大緊縮期間，來自服務的現金流支撐了Walker 和deps 調整了核心EPS 並調整了E BP A，隨著我們進入下一個增長週期，我們將繼續產生持續的高利潤率收益，貸款發放量將增加抵押貸款服務權。我們在Walker 和投資合作夥伴處預訂並提供籌集和部署更多資本的機會，這兩項業務產生的服務和資產管理收入是上行週期中收入和收益的絕佳來源，在下行週期中也至關重要。這是 W and D 長期存在的商業模式，即資本市場平台，幫助我們的客戶收購和融資資產和高端市場，並透過服務和資產管理獲得經常性收入流，以應對商業房地產不可避免的下行週期。

As we transition away from the great tightening and towards a more robust investing and refinancing market for commercial real estate A B&D business model and team are well positioned for growth.

隨著我們從大緊縮轉向更強勁的商業房地產投資和再融資市場，B&D 業務模式和團隊已做好了成長的準備。

I'll now turn the call over to Greg to discuss our financial and credit performance in greater detail and then return with some thoughts about what we see in the fourth quarter and beyond Greg.

我現在將把電話轉給格雷格，更詳細地討論我們的財務和信貸表現，然後返回格雷格，對我們在第四季度及之後看到的情況提出一些想法。

Thank you, Willie and good morning everyone. The growth in transaction activity and improvement across nearly all our key financial metrics signal the beginning of a recovery within the commercial real estate market.

謝謝你，威利，大家早安。交易活動的成長和幾乎所有關鍵財務指標的改善標誌著商業房地產市場復甦的開始。

Total transaction volumes grew 36% this quarter to $11.6 billion and generated diluted earnings per share of 85¢.

本季總交易量成長 36%，達到 116 億美元，稀釋後每股收益為 85 美分。

Up 33% year over year, we continue to produce strong and stable cash flows supporting the 7% increase in adjusted ebita and adjusted core EPS with increasing clarity around the path of short term interest rates and a growing supply of capital to the commercial real estate sector. The macroeconomic landscape is strengthening and wd's financial position, diversified platform and differentiated business model position us to perform as the market continues its recovery.

年增 33%，我們繼續產生強勁而穩定的現金流，支持調整後息稅前利潤和調整後核心每股收益增長 7%，短期利率路徑日益清晰，商業房地產資本供應不斷增加部門。宏觀經濟情勢正在加強，西部數據的財務狀況、多元化的平台和差異化的業務模式使我們能夠在市場持續復甦的情況下表現出色。

Turning to our segment results, capital markets, transaction activity accelerated this quarter. Our platform has been steadily rebounding throughout 2024 with sequential increases in our GSE debt brokerage and property sales volume. Since Q1 as shown on slide 6, the surge in transaction volumes this quarter produced 210% growth in net income for the segment, the $22 million while adjusted even to also improved to a loss of $4.6 million.

談到我們的分部業績，本季資本市場交易活動加速。我們的平台在 2024 年穩步反彈，GSE 債務經紀和房地產銷售量連續增加。如投影片 6 所示，自第一季以來，本季交易量的激增使該部門的淨利潤增長了 210%，達到 2,200 萬美元，而調整後甚至還改善為虧損 460 萬美元。

We are particularly encouraged by the significant growth in property sales transaction activity which increased 135% from last quarter, reflecting a stabilization of asset prices and a robust pool of buyers confident in the long term fundamentals of multi family assets.

我們尤其感到鼓舞的是，房地產銷售交易活動的顯著增長比上個季度增長了 135%，這反映出資產價格的穩定性以及大量買家對多戶資產的長期基本面充滿信心。

Additionally, the momentum willy described in our GST transaction volumes is promising and we anticipate this trend to continue into the fourth quarter.

此外，我們的商品及服務稅交易量中所描述的勢頭是有希望的，我們預計這種趨勢將持續到第四季度。

The current interest rate environment coupled with an expanding supply of capital suggests we are at a turning point for the segment's performance as we transition into the next commercial real estate cycle.

當前的利率環境加上不斷擴大的資本供應表明，隨著我們過渡到下一個商業房地產週期，我們正處於該部門業績的轉折點。

Our SAM segment continues to deliver healthy recurring cash flows from our scaled servicing and asset management activities.

我們的 SAM 部門繼續透過我們規模化的服務和資產管理活動提供健康的經常性現金流。

We ended the quarter with a total managed portfolio of $152 billion including a $134 billion servicing portfolio and $18 billion of assets under management revenues from our s segment declined 2% this quarter despite a 3% increase in servicing fees and related revenues.

本季結束時，我們的管理投資組合總額為1,520 億美元，其中包括1,340 億美元的服務投資組合和180 億美元的管理資產。部門的管理收入下降了2%。

The revenue decline was primarily driven by the decrease in new fundraising activity by Walker and dunlop affordable equity that generated lower syndication revenues. This quarter, we have a healthy pipeline of fourth quarter funds and expect syndication activity to improve in the fourth quarter.

收入下降的主要原因是沃克和鄧祿普平價股票的新籌款活動減少，從而產生了較低的銀團收入。本季度，我們擁有健康的第四季資金管道，預計第四季度的銀團活動將有所改善。

Walker and dunlop investment partners has steadily grown assets under management this year, establishing a pool of equity and debt capital that has been routinely deployed into our clients transaction year-to-date 36% of WD I P's debt fund investments were sourced from WD bankers and brokers reflecting the synergies we expected when we entered the asset management business.

Walker 和 Dunlop 投資合作夥伴今年管理的資產穩步增長，建立了股權和債務資本池，這些資本已定期部署到我們客戶的交易中，年初至今 WD I P 債務基金投資的 36% 來自 WD銀行家和經紀人反映了我們進入資產管理業務時所期望的綜效。

The same segment also includes the impacts of our credit risk portfolio. And during the quarter, we recognize the $3 million provision for credit losses.

同一部分也包括我們信用風險投資組合的影響。在本季度，我們確認了 300 萬美元的信貸損失撥備。

Last quarter, I provided an update on three loans totaling $62 million that we either indemnified or repurchase from the GSE.

上個季度，我提供了三筆總額為 6,200 萬美元的貸款的最新情況，我們已從 GSE 賠償或回購了這些貸款。

As we navigate the challenges with these assets and prepare to bring them to market. We updated our expected lost estimates resulting in an additional $3 million reserve this quarter and bringing our total reserve for these assets to $8 million.

當我們利用這些資產來應對挑戰並準備將其推向市場時。我們更新了預期損失估計，導致本季額外準備金 300 萬美元，使這些資產的總準備金達到 800 萬美元。

Danny may recently requested. We repurchase two additional loans totaling $26 million. Both of which are defaulted loans in our portfolio.

丹尼最近可能提出要求。我們回購了另外兩筆總計 2,600 萬美元的貸款。兩者都是我們投資組合中的違約貸款。

The loans were made to a borrower that is reportedly being investigated by the DOJ fraud.

這些貸款是提供給一位借款人的，據報該借款人正在接受司法部詐欺調查。

We have already recognized the $2 million loan loss reserve for these loans when they defaulted three quarters ago.

當這些貸款在三個季度前違約時，我們已經確認了 200 萬美元的貸款損失準備金。

At the end of the quarter, we had only seven defaults within our at risk portfolio totaling $60 million or 10 basis points.

截至本季末，我們的創投組合中只有 7 項違約，違約金額總計 6,000 萬美元，即 10 個基點。

We are currently estimating losses of $7 million on these defaulted loans which compares to our overall risk sharing allowance of $30 million.

我們目前估計這些違約貸款的損失為 700 萬美元，而我們的整體風險分擔準備金為 3000 萬美元。

The credit quality of our broad $61 billion at risk portfolio remains strong and we believe that our current loss loan loss reserves sufficiently cover any additional challenges that may arise in the portfolio as we transition to a new cycle.

我們廣泛的 610 億美元創投組合的信用品質仍然強勁，我們相信，我們目前的損失貸款損失準備金足以應對我們過渡到新周期時投資組合中可能出現的任何其他挑戰。

Although transaction activity started slowly this year, our consolidated year-to-date financial results improved this quarter as a result of the growth in transaction activity and consistent cash flow generated by our business diluted earnings per share for the first three quarters of the year is down 17% to $1.87 per share due to low transaction activity in the first half of the year, year to day, operating margin is 10% and return on equity is 5% compared to 13% and 6% respectively. Last year, the same segment has continued to generate durable cash flows which in combination with a strong third quarter for the capital market segment, drove year-to-date adjusted ebita of $234 million and adjusted core EPS of $3.60 up 10% and 11% respectively.

儘管今年交易活動開始緩慢，但由於交易活動的增長以及我們的業務稀釋後每股收益產生的持續現金流，本季度我們的年初至今的綜合財務業績有所改善。年減17%，至每股1.87 美元，營業利益率為10%，股本回報率為5%，而分別為13% 和6%。去年，該部門持續產生持久的現金流，加上資本市場部門第三季的強勁表現，推動年初至今的調整後稅前利潤達到2.34 億美元，調整後核心每股收益達到3.60 美元，分別增長10 % 和11%分別。

As a reminder and as shown on slide 9 for the full year, we are targeting growth in diluted earnings per share adjusted EBITA and adjusted core EPS in the mid single digits to low 10s.

提醒一下，如投影片 9 所示的全年情況，我們的目標是稀釋後每股盈餘、調整後 EBITA 和調整後核心每股盈餘的成長在個位數中位數至 10 位數以下。

The FO MC reduced the fed funds rate by 50 basis points in September which had little impact on our Q3 results, but we'll reduce our net interest earnings from deposits, warehouse interest and long term borrowings by 4 to $5 million in the fourth quarter.

FO MC 在9 月將聯邦基金利率降低了50 個基點，這對我們第三季的業績影響不大，但我們將在第四季度將來自存款、倉庫利息和長期借款的淨利息收入減少4 至500 萬美元。

Importantly, though the building momentum and transaction activity in the fourth quarter should more than offset that decline as a result. Our year-to-date financial results have us on a path to achieving our targets for adjusted EBITA and adjusted core EPS with respect to diluted EPS. Last quarter. We underscored our expectation that transaction activity would accelerate in the back half of the year which would allow us to hit our diluted EPS target Q3 delivered on that expectation.

重要的是，儘管第四季度的成長動力和交易活動應該足以抵消由此帶來的下降。我們今年迄今的財務表現使我們有望實現調整後 EBITA 和調整後核心每股收益（相對於稀釋每股收益）的目標。上個季度。我們強調了我們的預期，即交易活動將在今年下半年加速，這將使我們能夠實現第三季稀釋每股盈餘目標，從而實現這一預期。

While long term interest rates drive commercial real estate transaction activity and the sell off in the bond market over the last few weeks cause volatility. We believe the current level of long term interest rates will support a healthy amount of deal activity in the fourth quarter, we enter the fourth quarter with a with momentum and a strong pipeline of business that gives us a path to achieving the low end of our guidance range for diluted EPS.

雖然長期利率推動商業房地產交易活動，但過去幾週債券市場的拋售導致波動。我們相信，目前的長期利率水準將支持第四季度的大量交易活動，我們以強勁的勢頭和強勁的業務管道進入第四季度，這為我們實現了實現低端目標的道路。範圍。

We ended the quarter with $180 million of cash on the balance sheet with an additional $30 million of cash invested in several short term opportunities that drove transactions for our clients and fund management businesses.

本季結束時，我們的資產負債表上有 1.8 億美元的現金，另外還有 3,000 萬美元的現金投資於幾個短期機會，這些機會推動了我們的客戶和基金管理業務的交易。

Throughout this cycle, we routinely reinvested capital in our business in pursuit of our long term growth objectives while also returning capital to our shareholders through our recurring quarterly dividend. Yesterday, our board of directors approved our quarterly dividend of 65¢ per share payable to shareholders of record as of November 22nd, 2024 our third quarter reflects another period of solid progress within a gradually recovering market with clear indicators of improving performance across the business with an active Q4 underway and a healthy macroeconomic backdrop. We're excited about the opportunities ahead for W&D as we continue to manage our business to deliver long term growth to our shareholders. Thank you for your time this morning. I'll now turn the call back over to Willy.

在整個週期中，我們定期對業務進行資本再投資，以追求長期成長目標，同時透過經常性季度股息將資本回饋給股東。昨天，我們的董事會批准了向截至2024 年11 月22 日登記在冊的股東派發每股65 美分的季度股息，我們的第三季度反映了逐漸復甦的市場中又一個堅實的進展時期，並有明確的指標顯示整個業務的業績有所改善第四季度正在進行中，宏觀經濟背景健康。我們對 W&D 未來的機會感到興奮，因為我們將繼續管理我們的業務，為股東帶來長期成長。感謝您今天早上抽出時間。我現在將把電話轉回給威利。

Thank you, Greg.

謝謝你，格雷格。

As shown on slide, 10 market research shows that 2024 will be a peak year for apartment completions with 600,000 units expected to come online and yet Walker and Allance Research company, Zelman is projecting 1.8% rent growth in 2024. As many assets and regions are still growing, rents, multi family assets have held up extremely well against a massive influx of supply because the cost of homeownership is simply unaffordable for many Americans until we get a dramatic increase in the supply of single family housing or a dramatic decrease in mortgage rates.

如幻燈片所示，10 市場研究顯示，2024 年將是公寓竣工高峰年，預計將有 60 萬套公寓上線，但 Walker 和 Allance Research 公司 Zelman 預計 2024 年租金將增加 1.8%。由於許多資產和地區仍在增長，租金、多戶資產在供應大量湧入的情況下表現得非常好，因為住房擁有成本對許多美國人來說根本無法承受，直到單戶住房供應大幅增加或抵押貸款利率急劇下降。

Cost of homeownership will remain out of reach for someone making a median income in America.

對於美國中等收入的人來說，擁有房屋的成本仍然遙不可及。

Add to this macro outlook, the construction starts on new multi family properties have dropped dramatically in 2024. Only 250,000 units down 58% from 2020 two's peak.

除了這個宏觀前景之外，2024 年新多戶住宅的開工量也大幅下降。僅 25 萬台，較 2020 年的高峰下降 58%。

Creating an under supplied market in 2026 and 2027.

2026 年和 2027 年創造供應不足的市場。

Greater conviction on rents and future supply is driving investment sales volume today which will lead to higher capital flows which will lead to lower cap rates, which will lead to higher returns.

對租金和未來供應的更大信心正在推動今天的投資銷售量，這將導致更高的資本流動，從而導致更低的資本化率，從而帶來更高的回報。

This is what happens at the beginning of every real estate cycle and we believe we are starting one right now as we look forward to a recovery in transaction volumes. It is important for investors to understand Walker knop's ability to grow both our top and bottom line.

這是每個房地產週期開始時都會發生的情況，我們相信我們現在就開始一個週期，因為我們期待交易量的復甦。對於投資者來說，了解沃克諾普提高我們的收入和利潤的能力非常重要。

We made the decision to hold on to the majority of our bankers and brokers during the great tightening even as transaction activity fell off dramatically because we could afford to. And because we knew the cycle would eventually turn shown on this slide in 2019 before the pandemic and under relatively normal market conditions, we had 174 bankers and brokers at Walker and Dunlop who closed on average $184 million in transaction volume per banker or broker.

我們決定在大緊縮期間保留大部分銀行家和經紀人，即使交易活動急劇下降，因為我們有能力這樣做。因為我們知道這個週期最終會在2019 年大流行之前和相對正常的市場條件下出現在這張幻燈片上，所以沃克和鄧洛普有174 名銀行家和經紀人，他們平均每名銀行家或經紀人的交易量為1.84 億美元。

As you can see in the middle column, we have grown the number of bankers and brokers at Walker and up from 174 in 2019 to 231 today.

正如您在中間欄中看到的那樣，Walker 的銀行家和經紀人數量從 2019 年的 174 人增加到今天的 231 人。

And then they were covering market over the past year. It was 231 professionals originated $155 million in volume per bank or broker.

然後他們覆蓋了過去一年的市場。每家銀行或經紀商均由 231 名專業人士發起，金額達 1.55 億美元。

What is really exciting is to look at the column on the right hand side of this slide in the highly active market of 2021 when our bankers and brokers closed $311 million of transaction volume per bank or broker, it's hard to predict what the new normal and transaction volume will be this next cycle. It is clear that W&D's expanded team brand and market presence have a tremendous amount of capacity to grow our top line without adding more personnel to then grow our bottom line and margins.

真正令人興奮的是，在2021 年高度活躍的市場中查看這張幻燈片右側的專欄，當時我們的銀行家和經紀人每家銀行或經紀人的交易量為3.11 億美元，很難預測新常態和交易量將是下一個週期。顯然，W&D 擴大的團隊品牌和市場影響力具有巨大的能力來增加我們的收入，而無需增加更多人員來增加我們的利潤和利潤。

We continue to use data analytics to make our bankers and brokers more effective at winning new business and serving our clients.

我們繼續使用數據分析來使我們的銀行家和經紀人更有效地贏得新業務和服務客戶。

Our proprietary data analytics tool. Galaxy continues to be a key differentiator that allows us to win new loans and clients from the competition year to 8 68% of the refinancings we rate locked were new loans to our portfolio and 19% of total transaction volume was done with new clients to W&D beyond.

我們專有的數據分析工具。Galaxy 仍然是關鍵的差異化因素，它使我們能夠從競爭年度到8 月贏得新貸款和客戶。 % 是與W&D 的新客戶完成的超過。

Our traditional debt financing and property sales platforms. We are seeing great growth from our technology enabled businesses. A prize and small balance lending prize grew revenues each quarter in 2024 from 2.4 million in Q1 to 2.7 million in Q2 to 3.3 million in Q3 prizes use technology to increase the efficiency of our evaluation process. Increasing the number of valuation reports per appraiser from 10 per month last year to 15 this year.

我們傳統的債務融資和房地產銷售平台。我們看到技術支援的業務取得了巨大的成長。獎金和小額貸款獎金在 2024 年每季的收入都會從第一季的 240 萬增加到第二季的 270 萬，再到第三季的 330 萬。每位評估師的評估報告數量從去年每月 10 份增加到今年的 15 份。

Similarly, our small balance lending revenues grew from 3.7 million in Q1 to 5.1 million in Q2 to 8.6 million in Q3 and the combination of our people processes and technology is allowing us to be more efficient and insightful with our customers.

同樣，我們的小額貸款收入從第一季的370 萬增長到第二季度的510 萬，再到第三季度的860 萬，我們的人員流程和技術的結合使我們能夠更有效率、更深入地服務客戶。

We are now processing twice as many loans per underwriter compared to one year ago, which should allow us to scale our small balance funding volumes meaningfully as the market recovers.

與一年前相比，我們現在處理的每位承銷商貸款數量是一年前的兩倍，這將使我們能夠隨著市場復甦而有意義地擴大我們的小額餘額融資規模。

Finally, it's impossible to speak about technology without mentioning A I, we are integrating A I into W&D processes every day.

最後，談論科技就不能不提到人工智慧，我們每天都在將人工智慧融入 W&D 流程中。

Beginning with our first A I related acquisition. In 2019, we continuously build and improve our machine learning algorithms to drive efficiencies in our loan, underwriting and processing.

從我們的第一個人工智慧相關收購開始。2019 年，我們不斷建立和改進我們的機器學習演算法，以提高貸款、核保和處理的效率。

We will continue to test and implement A I efficiencies into our small balance loan process that will be migrated to our large loan business over the coming quarters.

我們將繼續在小額餘額貸款流程中測試和實施 A I 效率，並將在未來幾季遷移到我們的大額貸款業務。

We also developed an automated valuation model that gets smarter with every set of property data that we input. And as we grow the number of loans, we originate properties, we sell and properties, we appraise the data gets even larger, making our data output more informed and valuable.

我們還開發了一個自動估值模型，隨著我們輸入的每組房地產數據，該模型會變得更加聰明。隨著貸款數量的增加，我們創建房產，我們出售房產，我們評估的數據會變得更大，從而使我們的數據輸出更加明智和有價值。

We will continue to build and use A I as part of our overall data and technology strategy in areas of our business where it improves our processes and allows us to better serve our clients.

我們將繼續建立和使用人工智慧，作為我們業務領域整體數據和技術策略的一部分，它可以改善我們的流程，讓我們能夠更好地為客戶服務。

23 deals like the beginning of the next commercial real estate cycle. There may be some stops and starts as the fed policy takes hold. The Trump administration takes office and overall economic conditions play out.

23 筆交易就像是下一個商業房地產週期的開始。隨著聯準會政策的實施，可能會出現一些停頓和啟動。川普政府上台，整體經濟狀況顯現。

It's similar to after the great financial crisis and up demand for assets and financing will drive investment and transaction volumes up over the coming years. W&D is poised for growth with the people, brand and technology to remain a market leader.

這與金融危機後的情況類似，對資產和融資的需求上升將推動未來幾年的投資和交易量增加。W&D 已準備好透過人才、品牌和技術實現成長，以保持市場領先地位。

Thank you for your time this morning, I will now ask the operator to open the line to any questions.

感謝您今天早上抽出時間，如果有任何問題，我現在請接線生接通電話。

Thank you, if you have dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach your equipment again. Please press star one to ask a question if you're in the event via the web interface and would like to ask a question, simply type your question in the ask a question box and click send.

謝謝，如果您透過電話撥入並想提出問題，請按電話鍵盤上的星號一號。如果您使用免持電話，請確保您的靜音功能已關閉，以便訊號再次到達您的裝置。如果您透過網路介面參與活動並且想要提問，請按星號一提問，只需在提問框中輸入您的問題，然後按一下傳送即可。

We'll go first to Derek Summers with Jeffries.

我們將首先與傑弗里斯一起去找德里克·薩默斯。

Hey, good morning everyone. Just on the property sales volume. I know for the past couple quarters, we talked about an expanded kind of broker opinion of value pipeline in the quarter. You know how much of the property sales volume was, was pulled through from that pipeline and, and how much was kind of opportunistic.

嘿，大家早安。僅就房產銷售量而言。我知道在過去的幾個季度中，我們討論了本季經紀人對價值管道的擴展意見。你知道有多少房地產銷售量是從這條管道中拉出來的，有多少是機會主義的。

I'm not Derek, could you be a little bit more? I'm not exactly sure what you're looking for there in the sense of we don't the pipeline sort of if you will is the pipeline. And so are you asking what deals materialized in Q3 versus had been in the pipeline in Q2?

我不是德瑞克，你能再多一點嗎？我不太確定您在那裡尋找什麼，因為我們不是管道，如果您願意的話，那就是管道。那麼您是想問第三季實現的交易與第二季正在醞釀的交易有哪些？

Correct? Yes.

正確的？是的。

It the, the, the gestation period, if you will as it relates to doing a bov on a property, then listing it and having the actual transaction happen is longer than a quarter. So it's, it's impossible to say to you. Well, all of that was in Q2 and then got delivered in Q3. I think as both Greg and I said in the call, we have seen a significant uptick in both the pipeline as well as transaction volumes as I went through in detail in the call. And even in the last six weeks as rates have gone up, we have seen the pipeline hold in. And to the extent that very few deals have been dropped, although there have been requests for adjustments in price that are sometimes accepted by the seller and sometimes not. But generally speaking, the investment sales pipeline is holding very strong into Q4.

這是一個醞釀期，如果你願意的話，因為它涉及到對一處房產進行收購，然後將其掛牌並進行實際交易，這需要比四分之一長的時間。所以，這是不可能對你說的。好吧，所有這些都是在第二季完成的，然後在第三季交付。我認為正如格雷格和我在電話中所說的那樣，正如我在電話中詳細介紹的那樣，我們看到管道和交易量都顯著增加。即使在過去六週內，隨著利率的上升，我們也看到管道仍在繼續。儘管有人提出調整價格的要求，但賣家有時會接受，有時則不會，但很少有交易被取消。但總體而言，投資銷售通路在第四季度保持強勁。

Got it. That makes sense. And then in terms of, you know, purpose mix, is there any kind of shift between, you know, refinancing and purchase deals recently I guess compared to longer term averages.

知道了。這是有道理的。然後，就目的組合而言，我想與長期平均水平相比，最近的再融資和購買交易之間是否存在任何類型的轉變。

No, the one thing that we've been very focused on as we head into Q4, particularly with the recent run up in rates is how much of the pipeline is refinancing activity, which typically is term driven where someone has to refinance the property versus acquisition financing. And as we look into it, we feel very good that the Q4 pipeline is overweighted towards refinancing activity versus acquisition activity. But then I would also say, as we look at the acquisition pipeline, as I just said, acquisitions are still moving forward and people are not pulling properties from the market given the run up in rates.

不，在進入第四季度時，我們非常關注的一件事是，特別是在最近利率上升的情況下，有多少管道是再融資活動，這通常是期限驅動的，有人必須為財產再融資，而不是再融資活動。當我們進行調查時，我們感覺非常好，第四季度的管道過度重視再融資活動而不是收購活動。但我還要說，正如我剛才所說，當我們審視收購管道時，收購仍在繼續，鑑於利率上漲，人們不會從市場上撤出房產。

Got it very helpful color. Thank you.

得到了非常有用的顏色。謝謝。

We'll go next to Jade Rahmani with KBW.

接下來我們將與 KBW 一起前往 Jade Rahmani。

Jade. We don't have you yet.

玉。我們還沒有你。

Mr Rahmani, your line is open.

拉赫馬尼先生，您的電話已接通。

So nothing Jade.

所以沒什麼玉。

You may be on mute. Mr Armani. Can you.

您可能處於靜音狀態。阿瑪尼先生。你可以嗎。

Hear me now?

現在聽我說嗎？

Yes, we can hear you now, we can.

是的，我們現在可以聽到你的聲音，我們可以。

Okay, sorry about that. What do you see happening if the 10 year treasury goes to 5%? I'm curious as to how you game out that scenario. You know, there's some puts and takes with respect to transaction volumes, servicing portfolio duration as well as implications for the multi family market since likely single family homes would have lower demand.

好吧，對此感到抱歉。如果 10 年期公債利率達到 5%，您認為會發生什麼事？我很好奇你是如何解決這個場景的。您知道，在交易量、服務投資組合期限以及對多戶住宅市場的影響方面存在一些看跌期權和看跌期權，因為單戶住宅的需求可能會較低。

Yeah, Jre. We haven't sort of if you will gain that out as you, as you just said, we're obviously watching where rates go. We saw a significant increase in rates yesterday, post election. But it's, you know, it's impossible for us to predict where rates are going to go. I would say that there is a general sense that we are at the beginning of the next cycle that after two years of tightening rates, it is likely that we're going to get another cut to the fed funds rate and that we should remain in a relatively stable rate environment. Should that change we'll obviously adjust to it as everyone who's an investor in Walker. Noops saw over the last two years, we adjusted very significantly to dramatic changes in rates that we were seeing as you well know, 75 basis point increases in the fed funds rate on a, on a, on an every other meeting or every meeting basis. There's no project to that, but as you also focus on our business is really much more based off of the long bond and the 10 year treasury than it is off of fed funds rate. But we will react to whatever interest rate environment comes our way. You do underscore in your comment that as rates go up, that GAAP between multi family and single family would only increase, which means that people will remain renters, which will mean that occupancy will stay high. And as you burn through the new deliveries, which we underscored in our call that have put downward pressure on rents, albeit we still are going to see national rent growth in 2024 with an unprecedented volume of deliveries. That all bodes well to the underlying fundamentals of multi family which should continue to attract investment dollars which then drives investment sales activity, which then brings capital to the market. And as capital comes to the market cap rates go down and the value of assets inflate. So hard to predict we never do actually predict where rates are going to go. I have been saying for some time that the 10 year ought to settle in to a, as we get into a normalized deal curve, somewhere between four and 450 we're obviously at the high end of that range with the 10 year closing at 441 yesterday. I, the encouraging thing is that, our clients are still transacting and as I said to Derek's question a moment ago, we are not seeing the Q4 pipeline fade away as we've seen rates go up precipitously.

是的，傑瑞。我們不知道你是否能從中獲益，正如你剛才所說，我們顯然正在關注利率的走勢。昨天選舉後，我們看到利率大幅上升。但你知道，我們不可能預測利率的走向。我想說的是，人們普遍認為，我們正處於下一個週期的開始，經過兩年的緊縮利率之後，我們很可能會再次下調聯邦基金利率，並且我們應該繼續保持利率不變。環境。如果這種情況發生變化，作為沃克的每個投資者，我們顯然都會做出調整。Noops 看到在過去的兩年裡，我們對利率的巨大變化進行了非常重大的調整，正如你們所知，聯邦基金利率在每隔一次會議或每次會議的基礎上增加 75 個基點。沒有相關的項目，但正如您也關注的那樣，我們的業務實際上更多地基於長期債券和 10 年期國債，而不是基於聯邦基金利率。但我們會對出現的任何利率環境做出反應。您在評論中確實強調，隨著利率上升，多戶家庭和單戶家庭之間的公認會計準則只會增加，這意味著人們將繼續租房，這意味著入住率將保持在高位。當你消耗掉新的交付量時，我們在電話會議中強調了這一點，這給租金帶來了下行壓力，儘管我們仍然會看到 2024 年全國租金增長，交付量達到前所未有的水平。這一切都預示著多戶家庭的基本面將繼續吸引投資資金，從而推動投資銷售活動，從而為市場帶來資本。隨著資本的流入，市值利率下降，資產價值膨脹。很難預測，我們從來沒有真正預測過利率將會走向何方。一段時間以來，我一直在說，當我們進入正常化交易曲線時，10 年期國債應該會穩定在 4 到 450 之間，我們顯然處於該範圍的高端，10 年期國債收於 441昨天。我，令人鼓舞的是，我們的客戶仍在進行交易，正如我剛才對德里克的問題所說，我們並沒有看到第四季度的管道消失，因為我們已經看到利率急劇上升。

Thank you very much on the GSC side. Typically the fourth quarter is seasonally the strongest, quite a meaningful uptick. And yet I think one of your competitors noted, you know, some pressure on the throughput, you know, the ability to get loans closed because there's now so many requests coming into the G CS and they're looking to be more active. So they're, they've gone from, you know, being kind of in a holding pattern to having to ramp up ability to close loans. Do you see that being a gating factor in the fourth quarter?

非常感謝 GSC 方面。通常，第四季是季節性最強的，這是一個相當有意義的上升。但我認為您的一位競爭對手指出，您知道，吞吐量方面存在一些壓力，您知道，關閉貸款的能力，因為現在有如此多的請求進入 G CS，他們希望變得更加活躍。因此，他們已經從某種持有模式轉變為必須提高結清貸款的能力。您認為這是第四季的限制因素嗎？

I believe our competitor that made that call on their earnings call is a much larger Freddie Mac Optigo lender than they are a Fannie Mae Dus Lender. And as you know, Jade, the Optigo Business, those loans are underwritten by Freddie Mac and in the Fannie Mae Dus business, the loans are underwritten by the Fannie Mae Dus lender partner. And so I would just say to you that on the Fannie Mae side of things, we control our destiny a lot more than we would on Freddie Mac. And so I would not echo what our competitor firm said as it relates to the ability to process business.

我相信在財報電話會議上做出這項決定的競爭對手是房地美 (Freddie Mac) Optigo 貸款機構，而不是房利美 (Fannie Mae Dus) 貸款機構。如您所知，Jade、Optigo 業務，這些貸款由房地美(Freddie Mac) 承銷，而在房利美(Fannie Mae Dus) 業務中，這些貸款由房利美(Fannie Mae Dus) 貸款合作夥伴承銷。所以我只想對你們說，在房利美方面，我們比在房地美方面更能掌控自己的命運。因此，我不會重複我們競爭對手公司所說的內容，因為它涉及處理業務的能力。

Thanks. That's, that's good color and good to hear. And then just finally on the tax indication business sounds like there was maybe a delay in recognition of pla placement fees. And you expect that to be, you know, correct itself in the fourth quarter. But how can you touch on your broader outlook for that business, say in 2025 you know, still on a positive trajectory. Do you expect growth from that business in 2025?

謝謝。也就是說，顏色很好，聽起來也很好聽。最後，在稅務指示業務上，聽起來好像可能延遲承認解放軍安置費。你預計這種情況會在第四季得到糾正。但你如何才能談及該業務的更廣泛前景，例如 2025 年，你知道，仍處於積極的軌道上。您預計該業務到 2025 年會成長嗎？

We certainly expect growth in that business in 2025 is as, as I said, in my comments, that's been an extremely consistent contributor to both revenues and earnings since we acquired alliance several years ago. And it's a fantastic business. Q324 was a slow quarter for us due to no syndication activity and no dispositions. We are very focused on both of those two things and I have great confidence that in the coming year, we will see that get back on track. We made some significant changes in integrating that business into Walker Nap. And as I underscored with Freddie and hud all very focused on affordable housing. And also the low income housing tax credit market, needing more capital. As one of the primary sources of equity capital for the construction of affordable multi family properties. We see great if you will dynamics in that business going forward. The one other thing I would say on that is that business took a step backwards when the Trump administration in 2017 P passed the Jobs Act and tax reductions at that time where the corporate income tax came down significantly. What has been talked about is either the extension or potentially a decrease in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 20%. Nothing close to the dramatic change that happened in 2017 is tax rate stepped down on corporate level significantly. So if we either saw a 1% modification or a continuation of the tax rate, you would think that that business stays in line and doesn't have the step back that it did. Last time the corporate tax rate came down as dramatically as it did.

我們當然預計該業務將在 2025 年實現成長，正如我在評論中所說，自從我們幾年前收購聯盟以來，這一直是收入和收益的極其穩定的貢獻者。這是一項非常棒的生意。由於沒有聯合活動和處置，2024 年第三季對我們來說是一個緩慢的季度。我們非常關注這兩件事，我非常有信心在來年，我們將看到這一切重回正軌。我們在將業務整合到 Walker Nap 方面做出了一些重大改變。正如我向 Freddie 和 Hud 強調的那樣，他們都非常關注經濟適用房。低收入住房稅收抵免市場也需要更多資金。作為建造經濟適用多戶住宅的股本資本的主要來源之一。如果您願意在該業務中不斷發展，我們會非常高興。我要說的另一件事是，當川普政府在2017年通過就業法案和減稅政策時，企業所得稅大幅下降，商業倒退了一步。所討論的是企業稅率要么延長，要么可能從 21% 降至 20%。與 2017 年發生的巨大變化相比，企業層級的稅率大幅下降。因此，如果我們看到 1% 的稅率修改或延續稅率，您會認為該業務保持不變，不會像以前那樣出現退步。上次公司稅率大幅下降。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

We go next to Steve Delaney with citizens. JMP.

我們和公民一起走到史蒂夫·德萊尼旁邊。JMP。

Good morning, everyone and congratulations on your strong third quarter. Obviously transaction volume up very strongly year over year 36%. I noticed though the total revenues obviously only increased 9%. So it appears there's something going on with the revenue mix or there was an outlier, you know, transaction, you know, maybe last year, could you just help me rationalize the difference between your your volume of business and your revenue growth? Thanks.

大家早安，恭喜你們第三季表現強勁。顯然，交易量年增 36%。我注意到總收入顯然只增加了 9%。所以看起來收入組合出了問題，或者有一個異常值，你知道，交易，你知道，也許去年，你能幫我理清你的業務量和收入增長之間的差異嗎？謝謝。

Sure, Steve, good morning and great to have. Go ahead, Greg.

當然，史蒂夫，早安，很高興見到你。繼續吧，格雷格。

No, go ahead. Well, if you, if you I'm happy. I, I look, I, I think see the thing to point out is just a balance of our business now between the capital markets platform and the S segment where you know, a significant portion of our revenues are coming from SAM, our SAM segment and the transaction activity doesn't impact that that revenue base until down the road, right? When the loan closes, you then start to earn servicing fees during the next quarter. So, you know, a 36% increase in transaction activity generated the growth that we highlighted in revenues and earnings for the capital market segment, which is in line with what you would expect and, and generated the 210% growth in net income that we we highlighted on the call. And so I'll look at it more on a segment basis than an overall basis because you're going to get some, you know, some blending of the two segments. When you, when you just look at the transaction growth relative to our overall business growth.

不，繼續吧。好吧，如果你，如果你我就開心了。我，我看，我，我認為需要指出的是我們現在在資本市場平台和 S 部門之間的業務平衡，你知道，我們收入的很大一部分來自 SAM，我們的 SAM 部門而且交易活動不會影響該收入基礎，直到將來，對吧？貸款結束後，您將在下個季度開始賺取服務費。所以，你知道，交易活動增加 36% 帶來了我們強調的資本市場領域收入和收益的增長，這符合你的預期，並且帶來了我們所強調的淨利潤 210% 的增長。上強調了這一點。因此，我將更多地在細分基礎上而不是整體基礎上進行研究，因為您會得到一些，您知道，這兩個細分市場的一些混合。當你只看相對於我們整體業務成長的交易成長。

Got it, got it. So it's really not apples to apples. I hear what you're saying it's, it's, it's the mix of where you're, where you're earning the money within, you know, within SAM versus originations.

明白了，明白了。所以這真的不是蘋果對蘋果。我聽到你說的是，它是，你在哪裡，你在哪裡賺錢，你知道，在 SAM 與起源之間的混合。

So, okay, that, that is, but let me, let me, let me Steve, just let me Steve. Steve, let me just jump in real quick. You know, our numbers, well, and you know, our numbers well enough to know that you have identified one thing that did happen in the quarter, which was we did a large transaction that we made a, a less than normal fee on it was highly competitive. We were very excited, we want it, but it had a, it had a big number as it relate to the size of the transaction, but it didn't have a comit fee because it was very competitive in getting it. So what Greg said as it was, the overall mix of business is exactly right on the overall business. But as you look into that, you identified in that, that as it relates to volumes, we had one transaction that was a very large size transaction, but we did not make a commensurate fee on it, given how competitive it was to win it. We were thrilled to win it, but quite H1stly didn't love the fee we made on it.

所以，好吧，那就是，但是讓我，讓我，讓我史蒂夫，讓我史蒂夫。史蒂夫，讓我快點開始吧。你知道，我們的數據，嗯，你知道，我們的數據足以知道你已經確定了本季度確實發生的一件事，那就是我們做了一筆大額交易，而且費用低於正常水平競爭非常激烈。我們非常興奮，我們想要它，但它有一個很大的數字，因為它與交易的規模相關，但它沒有佣金費用，因為它在獲得它方面非常有競爭力。因此，正如格雷格所說，整體業務組合對於整體業務來說是完全正確的。但當你研究這一點時，你會發現，由於它與交易量相關，我們有一筆交易是一筆非常大的交易，但考慮到贏得它的競爭力，我們沒有為此支付相應的費用。我們很高興能贏得它，但非常不喜歡我們為此賺取的費用。

Understood that, that, that helps. That's exactly kind of what I was trying to identify if there was an outlier somewhere in the mix.

明白了，那個，那有幫助。這正是我試圖確定混合中是否存在異常值的原因。

Just look stepping back big picture willy and appreciate, you know, we all know what's going on with rates here right now and understand the impact that that can have on your borrowers. But looking back bigger, not so much the election, but, but let's tie that in, I guess when you look the GSES are, are so critical to housing and, and to your business on, on multi family, are there any lingering issues out there from sort of a political standpoint or, you know, just policy stand for anything that is out there that, you know, create problems for the Gses as we go down the road that would affect your business? Yeah.

只需退後一步，欣賞一下，您知道，我們都知道目前利率的情況，並了解這可能對借款人產生的影響。但回顧更宏觀的情況，不是選舉，但是，讓我們把這一點聯繫起來，我想當你看到 GSES 對住房和多戶家庭的業務如此重要時，是否存在任何揮之不去的問題從某種政治角度來看，或者，你知道，只是政策代表任何存在的東西，你知道，當我們走上會影響你的業務的道路時，會給Gses 帶來問題？是的。

I'll just without, without talking too specifically about the conversations that I have had. As you can imagine, Steve, we have been in constant contact with both Ds and Rs leading up to the election to make sure that whatever the outcome is, we have a good sense of any thoughts as it relates to what happen to the GSS under a Harris administration or a Trump administration. And all I would say is having spoken to many, many Republicans who either were previously engaged with the GSES or are on if you will various lists of people who could potentially go in there. Everything that I am hearing is, is quite positive as it relates to a desire to get the agencies out of conservatorship. But to do it without a significant, you know, market disruption. And there was as you well know, significant work done in the first Trump administration to work on getting the GSES out of conservatorship. And I would assume that that work is picked up on in the next Trump administration. I would think 2025 is all about taxes and that there really won't be, there'll be work done in the background as it relates to potentially getting Fannie and Freddie out of conservatorship. But the 25 will be all about taxes and what the new tax bill will be at the end of the year. And then, I would think that you start to see some type of real work H1stly in 26 and 27 on getting them out of conservatorship. And I think the other piece to it is, now that it's looking like you will have both a Republican Senate as well as a Republican House, who are the chair men or women of the various committees, house Financial Services Committee if Representative French Phil was the Chairman there. And on the Senate banking committee, if Tim Scott is the Chairman there, Both of those obviously are TBD. Both of those two gentlemen know, well, the role the agencies play in the market. And I would think both of them would look at doing something legislatively. But at the end of the day, Steve, if I had to handicap it, I would think that if Fannie and Freddie get out of conservatorship at any point in 26 or 27 it would be done through an administrative action slash executive order and not through a congressional, route if you will. But that's just, that's just, you know, that's trying to project a lot of different things. The final thing I would say is it really will matter who the treasury secretary is and whether he or she has the appetite to make GSE reform and the, and the spin out of Fannie and Freddie a priority in his or her tenure as treasury secretary.

我不會，也不會太具體地談論我所進行的對話。正如你可以想像的，史蒂夫，我們在選舉前一直與 Ds 和 Rs 保持聯繫，以確保無論結果如何，我們都能很好地了解任何想法，因為它與 GSS 的情況有關。川普政府。我想說的是，我已經與很多很多共和黨人交談過，他們要么以前曾參與過 GSES，要么就在其中，如果你列出了可能加入其中的各種名單的話。我所聽到的一切都是非常積極的，因為它與讓這些機構擺脫監管的願望有關。但要在不造成市場重大混亂的情況下做到這一點。眾所周知，川普第一屆政府在讓 GSES 擺脫監管方面做了大量工作。我認為下一屆川普政府會繼續進行這項工作。我認為 2025 年的重點是稅收，而且實際上不會有，而是會在後台完成一些工作，因為這可能與讓房利美和房地美擺脫監管有關。但 25 日的重點將是稅收以及年底的新稅單。然後，我認為你會在 26 和 27 年間開始看到一些真正的工作，讓他們擺脫監管。我認為另一件事是，現在看起來你將同時擁有共和黨參議院和共和黨眾議院，他們是各個委員會的男女主席，眾議院金融服務委員會，如果眾議員法國菲爾是那裡的主席。在參議院銀行委員會，如果蒂姆·斯科特是那裡的主席，那麼這兩個顯然都是待定的。這兩位先生都非常清楚這些機構在市場中所扮演的角色。我認為他們都會考慮透過立法來做一些事情。但歸根結底，史蒂夫，如果我必須阻止它，我會認為，如果房利美和房地美在 26 或 27 年的任何時候擺脫監管，將通過行政行動削減行政命令來完成，而不是通過如果你願意的話，一條國會路線。但那隻是，那隻是，你知道，那隻是試圖投射很多不同的東西。我要說的最後一件事是，財政部長是誰，以及他或她是否有興趣進行GSE 改革以及房利美和房地美的分拆，這確實很重要，這是他或她擔任財政部長期間的優先事項。

Thanks so much Willie. Those, those are very inside baseball kind of comments that are, that are helpful at this time. Thanks.

非常感謝威利。這些都是棒球內部的評論，在這個時候很有幫助。謝謝。

We'll go next to Jay mccanless with Wedbush.

我們將和韋德布希一起去傑伊·麥坎利斯旁邊。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Will, if, if I could pick up on a comment you made earlier that that with rates moving higher, I think you said that the pending backlog in the book has not fallen off. People are still ready to go get transactions done. Did I hear that correctly?

嘿，大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。如果我能注意到您之前發表的評論，即隨著利率走高，我認為您說過書中的待處理積壓尚未減少。人們仍然準備好完成交易。我沒聽錯嗎？

You did Jay?

傑伊是你做的嗎？

Okay, great. That's good to hear. And then very encouraging what you were saying about the start of a new real estate cycle. Is there anything besides rates? Of course, that we need to be monitoring that could be headwinds or, or even potential tailwinds to that cycle above and beyond what, what's going on with rates.

好的，太好了。很高興聽到這個消息。然後你所說的關於新的房地產週期的開始非常令人鼓舞。除了利率還有什麼嗎？當然，我們需要監控可能是該週期的逆風，甚至是潛在的順風，超越利率的變化。

Well, as we've talked about in the past Jay, there's, there's a tremendous amount of equity capital that has been sitting on the sidelines for the last two years that is either going to be deployed or returned to investors. And as a result of that, I think you've got to watch that because most most investors don't like returning capital to their invest to their, to their end investors. If you will, they like to put it to work. So I think first of all, we're going to see that. The second thing that I think is important is, you know, M&A activity in commercial real estate has basically been more than for the last year. We had Blackstone take air communities private earlier this year. But other than that, and then, and then a recently announced retail acquisition again by Black. There's been very, very little M&A activity. And if you look at 21 into 22 into 23 there was significant M&A activity of either public, private or public public as it relates to large res and as well as private equity firms buying publicly traded companies, I would think, given the amount of excitement as it relates to the M&A market that you will see a lot more activity there. And as the M&A market picks up, you obviously have both the need for all the things we do. Investment sales, valuation work and financing work. And so I would think that the M&A market picking up will also drive transaction volumes. And then the final piece to it is the private res and the role the private res have played in the market in 21 and 22 going to the sidelines in 23 and 24 and they all sit on a massive amount of properties and collateral that needs to either be financed, sold. And so I would think that that market as well has a big impact on volumes in 25 and 26 as those major market players come back to either figure out whether they're holding, selling or refinancing properties.

嗯，正如我們過去談到的，傑伊，在過去兩年裡，有大量的股權資本一直處於觀望狀態，這些資本要么將被部署，要么將返還給投資者。因此，我認為你必須注意這一點，因為大多數投資者不喜歡將投資資本回饋給他們的最終投資者。如果你願意的話，他們喜歡將其付諸實踐。所以我認為首先我們會看到這一點。我認為第二件重要的事情是，你知道，商業房地產的併購活動基本上比去年更多。今年早些時候，我們讓黑石集團將空中社區私有化。但除此之外，還有最近布萊克再次宣布的零售收購。併購活動非常非常少。如果你看看 21 到 22 到 23 中，你會發現公共、私人或公共部門的重大併購活動，因為它與大型資源以及私募股權公司購買上市公司有關，我認為，考慮到令人興奮的程度因為它與併購市場相關，所以你會看到那裡有更多的活動。隨著併購市場的回暖，您顯然需要我們所做的所有事情。投資銷售、估價工作和融資工作。因此，我認為併購市場的回升也將推動交易量。最後一部分是私人資源以及私人資源在 21 和 22 年在市場中扮演的角色，在 23 和 24 年處於觀望狀態，它們都坐擁大量財產和抵押品，需要要么融資、出售。因此，我認為該市場也會對 25 和 26 的交易量產生重大影響，因為那些主要市場參與者會回頭弄清楚他們是持有、出售還是再融資房產。

That's great. Thank you for all that detail will. And the, and the last one for me, I guess if, if the 10 year stay where it is, you know, 440 right now into 25 I guess. How much risk should we think about for the, the the loans in the servicing portfolio? I know you guys took another provision this quarter just wondering how, how y'all are thinking about that book in the next year if rates don't move off of where they are at this point.

那太棒了。謝謝你提供的所有細節。對我來說，最後一個，我想，如果 10 年保持在現在的水平，你知道，我想現在的 440 會變成 25。對於服務組合中的貸款，我們應該考慮多少風險？我知道你們本季採取了另一項規定，只是想知道如果利率不偏離目前的水平，明年你們會如何考慮這本書。

So AJ 91% of our at risk portfolio is fixed rate. Loans. So the 10 year moving does not impact those loans. We also have a very, very small amount of loans that actually mature in 2025. So as a result of that, the refi risk in the portfolio is very low, so the the the real as it relates to the 10 year, either staying where it is moving up, moving down, that's not going to have a big impact as it relates to credit side of the equation. It will obviously have a big impact as it relates to the market continuing to transact or the marketing pulling back from transaction volumes. And I would put forth that all the things that we just talked about as it relates to sort of the pent up demand for transactions for refinancing, give us, you know, a good sense that we're at the beginning of the next cycle where things will have to move forward. But the, the bottom line is that we feel extremely good that we have a platform that can if you will work on either eventuality. And I would also say that, you know, a 4 40 10 year, we have to all remember that we just went through what 1,213 years of incredibly low interest rates. And clearly, there is a massive amount of debt outstanding that has very low coupon rates on it, which means that if you're trying to redo those deals as you're thinking about going in selling those deals with a cost of capital for the buyer much, much higher than what you have on the asset that's going to impact value. And at the same time, a 4 to 4 50 10 year, go back and I'm dating myself here, but go back to 2004 to 2007, 10 years sat in a band between 2004 and 2007 of 4 to 450. And we had a very, very healthy market. A matter of fact, during that market, we had record CMB because of the stability in long term rates. And so I think that one of the things that we've consistently said and not only us but our competitor firms, it's really more a consistency of rates that allow people to determine a cap rate and a cost of capital to transact that is important rather than what the aggregate rate level is. If you will, the market will adjust to whatever the cost of capital is and that will impact values. What has been very challenging over the last two years is as rates went shooting up and it started to come back down. It was very difficult to determine what an actual cost of capital was and therefore what an accurate cap rate was to actually sell or buy a property. So stability in rates is far more important to the market than the aggregate rate number. Obviously, the cost of capital has a big impact on the value of assets and what people will pay for it or what people will want to sell it for. But then that all ties back into maturity levels and we have a huge amount of commercial real estate debt outstanding that is maturing and needs to be worked on. And so all of that will drive transaction values potentially not at a value that the seller wants, but at the same time, the term of that debt and in a healthy overall macro environment that should all drive increased deal volume.

因此，我們創投組合中 91% 的 AJ 是固定利率的。貸款。因此，十年搬家不會影響這些貸款。我們還有非常非常少量的貸款實際上將於 2025 年到期。因此，投資組合中的再融資風險非常低，因此與 10 年相關的實際值，無論是保持上升還是下降，都不會產生太大影響，因為它與等式的信用方面有關。這顯然會產生重大影響，因為它涉及到市場繼續交易或行銷從交易量中撤出。我想說的是，我們剛才討論的所有事情都與被壓抑的再融資交易需求有關，讓我們清楚地意識到我們正處於下一個週期的開始，其中事情必須向前發展。但最重要的是，我們感覺非常好，因為我們有一個平台，如果您願意處理這兩種可能性的話。我還要說，你知道，在 4 40 10 年裡，我們都必須記住，我們剛剛經歷了 1,213 年的令人難以置信的低利率。顯然，有大量未償債務的票面利率非常低，這意味著如果你在考慮以資本成本出售這些交易時嘗試重做這些交易，買家的價格遠遠高於您所擁有的會影響價值的資產。同時，4 到 4 50 10 年，回去我在這裡約會自己，但是回到 2004 年到 2007 年，10 年坐在 2004 年到 2007 年之間的 4 到 450 的樂隊中。我們有一個非常非常健康的市場。事實上，在那個市場期間，由於長期利率的穩定性，我們的 CMB 創下了歷史紀錄。因此，我認為我們一直在說的一件事，不僅是我們，還有我們的競爭對手公司，實際上更多的是利率的一致性，使人們能夠確定上限利率和交易的資本成本，這一點更重要比總利率水準高。如果你願意，市場將根據資本成本進行調整，這將影響價值。過去兩年非常具有挑戰性的是利率飆升然後又開始下降。很難確定實際的資本成本是多少，因此很難確定實際出售或購買房產的準確資本化率是多少。因此，對市場來說，利率穩定比總利率數字重要得多。顯然，資本成本對資產的價值以及人們願意支付的費用或人們願意以什麼價格出售資產有很大影響。但所有這些都與成熟度水平有關，我們有大量未償商業房地產債務正在到期，需要解決。因此，所有這些都將推動交易價值可能不會達到賣方想要的價值，但同時，債務期限和健康的整體宏觀環境都應該會推動交易量的增加。

Thank you for all that color. Will we really, really appreciate it?

謝謝你所有的顏色。我們真的會感激嗎？

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Thank you. We'll go.

謝謝。我們就走吧

We'll go next to Jade Rahmani with KBW.

接下來我們將與 KBW 一起前往 Jade Rahmani。

Thank you very much. Just wanted to confirm the large deal you referred to that was within the brokerage origination channel, right?

非常感謝。只是想確認您提到的大額交易是否屬於經紀發起管道，對嗎？

Yes, correct.

是的，正確。

Okay. That was the 1.2 billion mix use property.

好的。那就是12億的混合用途房產。

You do your homework.

你做你的作業。

Was in the press release. I just wanted to confirm because the the gain on sale margins actually came in pretty strong. And I think that the mix was quite favorable in terms of you know GSE volume.

是在新聞稿中。我只是想確認一下，因為銷售利潤的成長其實相當強勁。我認為就 GSE 數量而言，這種組合非常有利。

Again, you're what you just did perfectly was point to the deal I was talking to and yet underscore what, what Greg said in response to Steve's question.

再說一次，你剛才做得完美，指出了我正在談論的交易，但強調了格雷格在回答史蒂夫的問題時所說的話。

Okay.

好的。

Great. Well, thanks very much.

偉大的。嗯，非常感謝。

Well, thank you. Thanks.

嗯，謝謝。謝謝。

This does conclude today's question and answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Willy Walker for any closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回給威利·沃克，讓其發表結束語。

Great. Thank you for joining us today. Thank you, Greg and Kelsey for all your work on this quarter's script and earnings release. And thanks to everyone on the W&D team for a fantastic Q3. I appreciate everyone dialing in this morning to listen to the call and I hope everyone has a great day.

偉大的。感謝您今天加入我們。感謝格雷格和凱爾西為本季的劇本和收益發布所做的所有工作。感謝 W&D 團隊的每個人為我們帶來了精彩的第三季。我感謝今天早上撥電話收聽電話的每個人，希望每個人都有美好的一天。

This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。