Waste Connections Inc (WCN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Waste Connections Q1 2025 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ron Mittelstaedt, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Waste Connections 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在，我想將會議交給總裁兼執行長 Ron Mittelstaedt。請繼續。

Okay. Thank you, operator, and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to this conference call to discuss our first quarter results and to provide a detailed outlook for the second quarter. I'm joined this morning by Mary Anne Whitney, our CFO; and several other members of our senior management. As noted in our earnings, we're extremely pleased by the strong start to 2025 (inaudible) organic sales growth and continued acquisition activity drove a top to bottom beat in the quarter, positioning us well for the full year.

好的。謝謝接線員，早安。我歡迎大家參加本次電話會議，討論我們的第一季業績並對第二季進行詳細展望。今天早上和我一起參加的是我們的財務長 Mary Anne Whitney；以及我們的其他幾位高階主管。正如我們的收益所指出的，我們對 2025 年（聽不清楚）的強勁開局感到非常高興，有機銷售成長和持續的收購活動推動了本季度的上行，為我們全年做好了準備。

Exemplary operational execution supported core sale-based pricing of 6.9% and drove better-than-expected results as we overcome incremental volume weakness from protracted weather events across many markets to exceed our outlook and deliver adjusted EBITDA margin of 32%. Our industry-leading results are indicative of the durability of our unique approach to market selection, our decentralized operating model and the resulting projectability from our commitment to excellence. To that end, we also saw continued improvement in employee retention for the tenth consecutive quarter, along with record safety performance during the period. Before we get into much more detail, let me turn the call over to Mary Anne for our forward-looking disclaimer and other housekeeping items.

出色的營運執行支援了 6.9% 的核心銷售定價，並推動了好於預期的業績，因為我們克服了多個市場長期天氣事件導致的增量銷量疲軟，超出了我們的預期，實現了 32% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。我們領先業界的表現顯示了我們獨特的市場選擇方法、分散的營運模式以及對卓越的承諾所帶來的可預測性的持久性。為此，我們也看到員工留任率連續第十個季度持續提高，同時在此期間安全績效也創下了新高。在我們討論更多細節之前，請允許我先將電話轉給瑪麗安妮，讓她聽取我們的前瞻性免責聲明和其他日常事務。

Thank you, Ron, and good morning. The discussion during today's call includes forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the US. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Actual results could differ materially from those made in such forward-looking statements due to various risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed both in the cautionary statement in our April 23 earnings release and in greater detail in Waste Connections filings with the US.

謝謝你，羅恩，早安。今天電話會議中的討論包括根據美國安全港條款做出的前瞻性陳述。1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案，包括適用加拿大證券法意義內的前瞻性資訊。由於各種風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述的結果有重大差異。我們在 4 月 23 日發布的收益報告的警告聲明以及 Waste Connections 向美國提交的文件中詳細討論了可能導致實際結果不同的因素。

Securities and Exchange Commission and the Securities Commission similar regulatory authorities in Canada. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as there may be additional risks of which we are not presently aware or that we currently believe are immaterial, which could have an adverse impact on our business. We make no commitment to revise or update any forward-looking statements in order to reflect events or circumstances that may change after today's date. On the call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income attributable to Waste Connections on both a dollar basis and per diluted share and adjusted free cash flow. Please refer to our earnings releases for a reconciliation of such non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures.

美國證券交易委員會與加拿大證券委員會的監管機構類似。您不應過度依賴前瞻性陳述，因為可能存在我們目前尚未意識到的或我們目前認為無關緊要的額外風險，這些風險可能會對我們的業務產生不利影響。我們不承諾修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述以反映今天之後可能發生變化的事件或情況。在電話會議上，我們將討論非公認會計準則指標，例如調整後的 EBITDA、以美元和每股攤薄收益計算的歸屬於 Waste Connections 的調整後淨收入以及調整後的自由現金流。請參閱我們的收益報告，以了解此類非 GAAP 指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對照情況。

Management uses certain non-GAAP measures to evaluate and monitor the ongoing financial performance of our operations. Other companies may calculate these non-GAAP measures differently. I will now turn the call back over to Ron.

管理階層使用某些非公認會計準則指標來評估和監控我們營運的持續財務表現。其他公司可能會以不同的方式計算這些非公認會計準則指標。現在我將把電話轉回給羅恩。

Okay. Thank you, Mary Anne. We're off to a great start in 2025 in many respects, including pricing, employee retention and safety performance and acquisition integration, all driving better-than-expected revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the quarter. We delivered margins of 32% during the seasonally weakest quarter and what would arguably be characterized as an uncertain macro environment, further complicated by extreme weather in many markets and without any relief from commodity or FX. Said another way, we're delivering on multiple fronts, starting with price-led organic solid waste growth.

好的。謝謝你，瑪麗安妮。2025 年，我們在定價、員工保留、安全績效以及收購整合等諸多方面都取得了良好的開端，所有這些都推動了本季度收入和調整後 EBITDA 好於預期。在季節性最弱的季度，我們的利潤率達到了 32%，而當時的宏觀環境可以說是不確定的，許多市場的極端天氣使情況變得更加複雜，而且大宗商品或外匯市場也沒有任何緩解。換句話說，我們正在多個方面實現目標，首先是價格驅動的有機固體廢棄物成長。

In the first quarter, core pricing was up sequentially to 6.9% and exceeded our outlook on the strength of pricing retention. Volume down 2.8% was in line with recent quarters in spite of incremental impacts from weather-related events that were most pronounced in February and followed by a pickup in March. To the inevitable question about how our business may have been affected by concerns about tariffs or other geopolitical elements impacting expectations or the economy more broadly. As is evidenced by our Q1 results, we didn't see any noteworthy impacts, including with respect to solid waste organic growth. In fact, we were impressed by favorable trends in volumes and pricing, both of which increased sequentially in the quarter, normalized for outside weather impacts.

第一季度，核心價格環比上漲 6.9%，超出了我們對價格保留的預期。儘管天氣相關事件的影響在 2 月最為明顯，3 月有所回升，但交易量仍下降了 2.8%，與最近幾季的情況一致。不可避免的問題是，我們的業務可能如何受到關稅或其他地緣政治因素的影響，這些因素會影響預期或更廣泛的經濟。從我們的第一季業績可以看出，我們沒有看到任何值得注意的影響，包括固體廢棄物有機成長方面的影響。事實上，我們對銷售和價格的良好趨勢印象深刻，這兩個指標在本季度都環比增長，並因外部天氣影響而正常化。

To date, we have seen no incremental capital or expense increases associated with tariffs. Moreover, we were and continue to be impressed by the quality of execution from our local leaders and further advances in key operating trends. Notably, Q1 marked our tenth consecutive quarter of improvement in employee retention with voluntary turnover down another 60 basis points sequentially in Q1 to below 12% and down over 50% from our peak. At less than 12%, our voluntary turnover is within our targeted range with momentum for further improvement. Additionally, corresponding reductions in employee openings are allowing us to optimize staffing levels and focus on quality.

到目前為止，我們還沒有看到與關稅相關的增量資本或費用增加。此外，我們當地領導的執行品質和關鍵營運趨勢的進一步進步給我們留下了深刻的印象。值得注意的是，第一季是我們員工留任率連續第十個季度提高，自願離職率在第一季環比下降 60 個基點至 12% 以下，較高峰下降 50% 以上。我們的自願離職率低於 12%，處於我們的目標範圍內，並且還有進一步改善的勢頭。此外，相應減少員工空缺使我們能夠優化人員配置水平並專注於品質。

We would argue that voluntary turnover is the single most important metric to determine a company's overall health. As we have indicated would be the case, the benefits from improved employee engagement are spread throughout the P&L and position us for continued growth and margin expansion. We are seeing real-time benefits in reduced overtime less reliance on third-party services and lower vehicle wear and tear as well as improved employee morale and engagement that is translating to higher customer satisfaction levels as seen in sales, pricing retention and M&A integration, which, as noted earlier, are ahead of plan for 2025. Most importantly, we see the value of employee engagement and safety, our number 1 operating value and key performance indicator. Not only have we seen continuous improvement in company-wide incident rates over the past 2 years, but we have now achieved historic low levels.

我們認為自願離職率是衡量一家公司整體健康狀況最重要的指標。正如我們所指出的，員工敬業度提高帶來的好處遍及整個損益表，並使我們能夠繼續成長和擴大利潤率。我們看到了即時效益，包括減少加班時間、減少對第三方服務的依賴、降低車輛磨損以及提高員工士氣和參與度，從而轉化為更高的客戶滿意度，這體現在銷售、價格保留和併購整合方面，如前所述，這些都提前完成了 2025 年的計劃。最重要的是，我們看到了員工敬業度和安全的價值，這是我們的首要營運價值和關鍵績效指標。過去兩年來，我們不僅看到全公司事故率持續改善，而且現在已達到歷史最低水準。

That is, we are experiencing safety incident rates that are lower than any other time in the company's history with dramatically more employees and vehicles. While acquiring and integrating in recent years, record levels of acquisitions, which typically come on at much higher incident rates, we have also driven down the number of safety-related incidents across our expanding footprint, reducing year-over-year incident counts by as much as 40% in recent months. This outsized improvement will unlock incremental cost savings in future periods from the lagging benefits of reduced severity and incidents, which continue to be headwinds being absorbed in the current period based on our prior year's performance.

也就是說，在員工和車輛數量大幅增加的情況下，我們的安全事故發生率比公司歷史上任何時候都要低。近年來，我們在收購和整合過程中，不僅創下了收購記錄，而且通常伴隨著更高的事故率，同時，我們也在不斷擴大的業務範圍內降低了安全相關事故的數量，近幾個月來，事故數量同比減少了 40%。這種巨大的改善將透過降低嚴重程度和事故發生率的滯後效益在未來時期釋放增量成本節約，根據我們上一年的業績，這些滯後效益在當前時期仍是需要吸收的阻力。

Along with these achievements, our acquisition activity continues at outsized levels with annualized revenues closed to date already over $125 million, including a strategic state-of-the-art recycling facility in New Jersey to complement our growing [Europe] commercial collection franchise business discussed the past several quarters. Already approaching in 4 months what we used to consider an average year, we're on pace for another busy year with high levels of seller interest across our footprint.

除了這些成就之外，我們的收購活動繼續保持超大規模，迄今為止的年收入已超過 1.25 億美元，其中包括位於新澤西州的一座具有戰略意義的先進回收設施，以補充我們過去幾個季度討論過的日益增長的[歐洲]商業收集特許經營業務。四個月以來，我們的業績已經接近我們過去認為的平均水平，我們正準備迎接另一個繁忙的一年，我們的業務範圍內的賣家興趣很高。

We should be well past an average M&A year by the midpoint of this year. At debt-to-EBITDA leverage of 2.3 times, we remain well positioned for continued acquisition outlays in 2025 and more importantly, their successful integration to drive value creation (inaudible) of our balance sheet and the consistency of our results provide tremendous optionality to execute on our growth strategy, along with increasing return of capital to shareholders. And we're extremely proud to report our recent receipt rating upgrade from Moody's ratings to A3, reflecting that track record and providing even greater support for our continued growth. Now I'd like to pass the call to Mary Anne to review more in depth the financial highlights of the first quarter and provide a detailed outlook for Q2. I will then wrap up before heading into Q&A.

到今年年中，我們的併購活動應該會遠遠超過平均值。在債務與 EBITDA 比率為 2.3 倍的情況下，我們仍處於有利地位，可以在 2025 年繼續進行收購支出，更重要的是，它們的成功整合推動了我們資產負債表的價值創造（聽不清），並且我們業績的一致性為執行我們的增長戰略提供了巨大的選擇性回報，同時增加了股東的資本回報。我們非常自豪地報告，我們最近的評級從穆迪評級升級到 A3，這反映了這一業績記錄，並為我們的持續成長提供了更大的支持。現在，我想將電話轉給瑪麗安，讓她更深入地回顧第一季的財務亮點，並對第二季提供詳細的展望。然後我將結束發言，然後進入問答環節。

Thank you, Ron. In the first quarter, revenue of $2.228 billion was above the high end of our outlook and up $155 million or 7.5% year-over-year. Adjusting for foreign exchange impacts from the decline in the Canadian dollar, year-over-year revenue was up 84%. Contributions from acquisitions net of divestitures and operations closed since the year-ago period, totaled $112 million in the quarter. As Ron noted, solid waste organic growth was led by 6.9% core price, which range from about 4.5% in our mostly exclusive market Western region to over 8.5% in our competitive markets.

謝謝你，羅恩。第一季度，營收為 22.28 億美元，高於我們預期的高端，年增 1.55 億美元，增幅 7.5%。扣除加幣貶值帶來的外匯影響後，年收入年增 84%。本季，扣除去年同期的資產剝離和業務關閉，收購貢獻總額達 1.12 億美元。正如羅恩所指出的，固體廢棄物的有機成長是由 6.9% 的核心價格推動的，這一增長範圍從我們主要獨家市場西部地區的 4.5% 左右到我們競爭市場的 8.5% 以上。

Total price of 6.7% reflected a reduction of about 20 basis points in fuel and material surcharges, primarily related to lower fuel rates. With over 75% of our price increases already in place or contractually provided for, we have high visibility for full year 2025 core pricing of at least 6%. Looking next to solid waste volumes, which on a reported basis are normalized for the impact of 1 less day in the quarter and our closing of Chiquita Canyon landfill at year-end 2024. Q1 volume (inaudible) negative 2.8% were in line with Q4, including 50 basis points attributable to outsized weather events, most notably in February, that contributed to reported volume losses to varying degrees across all of our regions, except our Western region. Volumes also reflect ongoing purposeful shedding and nonrenewal of poor quality contracts from acquisitions in recent years, similar to prior periods.

總價格上漲 6.7%，反映燃料和材料附加費減少了約 20 個基點，主要與燃料費率降低有關。由於我們超過 75% 的價格上漲已經到位或已通過合約規定，因此我們對 2025 年全年核心價格至少 6% 的預測很高。接下來看看固體廢物量，根據報告，固體廢物量已根據本季度減少 1 天以及我們在 2024 年底關閉 Chiquita Canyon 垃圾掩埋場的影響而正常化。第一季銷售量（聽不清楚）為負 2.8%，與第四季度持平，其中包括 50 個基點，這歸因於特大天氣事件，最明顯的是 2 月份的天氣事件，這導致我們所有地區（西部地區除外）報告的銷量出現不同程度的損失。與前期類似，交易量也反映出近年來收購中持續有意放棄和不續簽品質較差的合約的情況。

Looking at year-over-year results in the first quarter on a same-store adjusted basis. Roll-off pulls were down 2% due primarily to February weather impacts, most notably to markets in the South and Southeastern U.S. In fact, excluding February, pulls were about flat year-over-year. (inaudible) higher MSW up 2% and increased special waste tons up 6% were partially offset by weaker C&D, down 6%. Increases in special waste activity reflects some benefit from an easy comparison to last year and were broad-based across a number of smaller jobs in most of our regions, except our central region.

從同店調整後的數據來看，第一季的年比業績。2 月捲取量下降 2%，主要原因是天氣影響，尤其是美國南部和東南部市場。事實上，除 2 月外，捲取量與去年同期基本持平。 （聽不清楚）都市固體廢棄物增加 2%，特殊廢棄物噸數增加 6%，但因建築和拆除業務較弱（下降 6%）而部分抵銷。與去年相比，特殊廢棄物處理的增加反映出了一些好處，除了中部地區外，我們大多數地區的許多小型工作都出現了這種增加。

Looking at landfill tonnage by month, similar to roll-off activity, February was the only negative month. Otherwise, tons were up 4% to 5% year-over-year. Beyond solid waste, revenues played out largely as expected in Q1, with values for cardboard or OCC and mobile energy credits, or RINs, both down about 20% year-over-year and stable at those levels during the quarter, with offsets from increases in other commodities. In Q1, prices for OCC averaged about $105 per tonne and RINs averaged about $2.45, with little movement in (inaudible) thus far in Q2. And finally, E&P waste activity was about flat year-over-year, adjusted for acquisitions, with some declines associated with deepest rig counts in certain basins in the US offset by drilling activity in other U.S. basins and production-oriented activity in Canada.

從每個月的垃圾掩埋噸位來看，與滾裝活動類似，二月是唯一出現負值的月份。除此之外，噸數年增了4%至5%。除固體廢棄物外，第一季的收入基本上符合預期，紙板或OCC和行動能源信用額度（RIN）的價值年均下降約20％，本季保持穩定，其他商品價格上漲抵消了這一影響。在第一季度，OCC 的平均價格約為每噸 105 美元，RIN 的平均價格約為每噸 2.45 美元，而第二季度迄今為止，價格幾乎沒有變動（聽不清楚）。最後，根據收購情況進行調整後，勘探與生產廢棄物活動與去年同期基本持平，其中與美國某些盆地最深鑽井平台數量相關的下降被美國其他盆地的鑽井活動和加拿大的生產導向型活動所抵消。

Adjusted EBITDA for Q1, as reconciled in our earnings release, was $712.2 million, up 9.5% year over year. At 32% of revenue, our adjusted EBITDA margin was above our outlet up 60 basis points year over year. This increase was driven primarily by underlying solid waste margin expansion of 70 basis points, which along with 20 basis points net benefit from accretive acquisitions offset by closed operations, more than overcame a combined 30 basis point margin [drag] from lower commodity-driven revenues and FX.

根據我們的收益報告，第一季的調整後 EBITDA 為 7.122 億美元，年增 9.5%。我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率佔營收的 32%，比我們的門市高出 60 個基點。這一成長主要得益於基礎固體廢棄物利潤率擴大 70 個基點，加上因關閉業務而抵消的增值收購帶來的 20 個基點的淨收益，足以克服由商品驅動的收入和外匯減少造成的 30 個基點的利潤率總和（拖累）。

Net interest expense of $79.1 million with a weighted average cost of approximately 4% on quarter-end debt outstanding of about $8.4 billion, with a tenor of about 9 years and a mix of 80 to 20 fixed to floating rate debt. Liquidity was approximately $570 million and our leverage ratio, as defined in our revolving credit agreement, and as noted by Ron, was about 2.73 times debt-to-EBITDA.

淨利息支出為 7,910 萬美元，季末未償還債務約 84 億美元，加權平均成本約 4%，期限約為 9 年，固定利率債務與浮動利率債務的比例為 80% 至 20%。流動性約為 5.7 億美元，我們的槓桿率（如我們的循環信貸協議中所定義，如 Ron 所指出的）約為債務與 EBITDA 比率的 2.73 倍。

Our effective tax rate for the first quarter was 22.8%, about as expected. And finally, adjusted free cash flow of $332.1 million was in line with our expectations and our full year outlook of $1.3 billion to $1.35 billion as provided in February. I will now review our outlook for the second quarter of 2025.

我們第一季的有效稅率為22.8%，大致符合預期。最後，調整後的自由現金流為 3.321 億美元，符合我們的預期，也符合我們 2 月提出的全年預期 13 億美元至 13.5 億美元。現在我將回顧我們對 2025 年第二季的展望。

Before I do, we'd like to remind everyone once again that actual results may vary significantly based on risks and uncertainties outlined in our safe harbor statement and filings we've made with the SEC and securities commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada. We encourage investors to review these factors carefully.

在此之前，我們想再次提醒大家，實際結果可能會因我們的安全港聲明以及我們向美國證券交易委員會和加拿大證券委員會或類似監管機構提交的文件中概述的風險和不確定性而有很大差異。我們鼓勵投資者仔細審查這些因素。

Our outlook assumes no significant change in underlying economic trends. It also excludes any impact from additional acquisitions that may close during the remainder of the second quarter and expensing of traction-related items during the period. Revenue in Q2 is estimated to be in the range of $2.375 billion to $2.4 billion.

我們的展望假設潛在的經濟趨勢不會有重大變化。它還排除了第二季度剩餘時間內可能完成的額外收購以及該期間牽引相關項目的費用的影響。預計第二季的營收將在 23.75 億美元至 24 億美元之間。

Adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2 is estimated at approximately 32.7%. Depreciation and amortization expense for the second quarter is estimated at approximately 13.1% of revenue, including amortization of intangibles of about $50 million or $0.14 per diluted share net of taxes. Interest expense net of interest income is estimated approximately $82 million. And finally, our effective tax rate in Q2 is estimated at about 24.5%, subject to some variability. And now let me turn the call back over to Ron for some final remarks before Q&A.

第二季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計約為 32.7%。第二季的折舊和攤銷費用估計約佔收入的 13.1%，其中包括約 5,000 萬美元的無形資產攤銷或稅後每股攤薄收益 0.14 美元。扣除利息收入後的利息支出預計約為 8,200 萬美元。最後，我們第二季的有效稅率估計約為 24.5%，但可能會有所波動。現在，讓我將電話轉回給羅恩，讓他在問答之前做些最後的評論。

Thank you, Mary Anne. Our strong start to the year validates the disciplined approach to growth and value creation that we have employed since our founding. With solid waste pricing largely in place and another busy start to acquisition activity, we are well positioned to build on that success in '25, particularly given the benefits of employee engagement we're seeing today, which should continue to accrue to us in 2025 and beyond.

謝謝你，瑪麗安妮。我們今年的強勁開局驗證了我們自成立以來所採取的嚴謹的成長和價值創造方法。隨著固體廢棄物定價基本上到位，以及收購活動的另一個繁忙開始，我們已準備好在 2025 年的基礎上再創佳績，特別是考慮到我們今天看到的員工敬業度帶來的好處，這種好處應該會在 2025 年及以後繼續惠及我們。

Looking at our outlook for the full year 2025 and acknowledging the broader macroeconomic uncertainty in the current environment as noted, we have thus far not seen significant changes to trends in activity or costs that would alter the outlook for '25 that we provided in February. On that basis, we are reiterating our full year 2025 outlook for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow, while acknowledging that uncertainty.

縱觀我們對 2025 年全年的展望，並承認當前環境下更廣泛的宏觀經濟不確定性，迄今為止，我們尚未看到活動或成本趨勢發生重大變化，從而改變我們在 2 月份提供的 2025 年展望。在此基礎上，我們重申對 2025 年全年收入、調整後 EBITDA 和調整後自由現金流的展望，同時承認存在不確定性。

Of course, we will continue to monitor trends as tariffs and other drivers may impact results, and we intend to review and provide any updates to our full year 2025 outlook in conjunction with our Q2 earnings release. Regardless of the macro environment, we'll continue to focus on those aspects of the business that we can influence and position ourselves to address and mitigate the impacts outside of our control.

當然，我們將繼續監測趨勢，因為關稅和其他因素可能會影響結果，我們打算結合第二季收益發布來審查並提供 2025 年全年展望的任何更新。無論宏觀環境如何，我們都會繼續專注於我們能夠影響的業務方面，並定位自己以解決和減輕我們無法控制的影響。

To that end, we're most grateful for the commitment of our 24,000 employees who drive these outcomes while putting safety first and making Waste Connections such a great place to work. We appreciate your time today. I will now turn the call over to the operator to open up the lines for your questions.

為此，我們非常感謝 24,000 名員工的承諾，他們在推動這些成果的同時，將安全放在第一位，並使 Waste Connections 成為一個優秀的工作場所。感謝您今天抽出時間。我現在將把電話轉給接線員，以便解答您的問題。

Operator?

操作員？

We will now begin the question-and-answer session to ask a question.

我們現在開始問答環節來問一個問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Tyler Brown, Raymond James.

泰勒布朗、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，大家早安。

Good morning, Tyler.

早安，泰勒。

Hey, Ron, thank you for all the color on the tariffs. But in a similar vein, the financial markets are obviously up and down, interest rates are moving. And I think the HSR process got a little more difficult maybe in the past month or so. So number one, can you just talk about how those HSR changes do or don't affect you regarding M&A? And two, it doesn't sound like it, but is this uncertainty in the market having any material impact in getting deals over the losing them?

嘿，羅恩，謝謝你對關稅的詳細解釋。但同樣地，金融市場顯然有起有落，利率也在變動。我認為 HSR 進程在過去一個月左右可能變得更加困難了。那麼第一點，您能否談談這些 HSR 變化對您們的併購有何影響？其次，聽起來似乎並非如此，但市場中的這種不確定性是否會對達成交易產生實質影響？

Sure. Thanks, Tyler. So first off, I'm sure many on the call are aware that the HSR filing application process and timing changed effective February 8, 2025. The price -- the application became probably 3 times to 4times more lengthy and the cost to prepare became probably 3 times to 5 times more expensive. The FCC and the DOJ are now saying that typical deals that might get reviewed in a 30- to 60-day process, people should now expect more like a 90 to 150-day process.

當然。謝謝，泰勒。首先，我相信電話中的許多人都知道，HSR 申請流程和時間將於 2025 年 2 月 8 日起變更。價格－申請時間可能變得長 3 到 4 倍，準備費用可能變得昂貴 3 到 5 倍。美國聯邦通訊委員會和美國司法部現在表示，典型的交易可能需要 30 到 60 天的審查時間，但現在預計審核時間將延長至 90 到 150 天。

So it is expected to lengthen out those deals that require HSR. Now having said that, listeners should understand, 99% of our deals do not require an HSR filing because we are acquiring smaller private health companies almost exclusively under $125 million in purchase price. And so we have very, very few HSR filings. In fact, we currently have no deal slated for HSR filings and we have not had any year-to-date. So I am not looking for any delays in any of our M&A.

因此，預計需要高鐵的交易將會延長。話雖如此，聽眾們應該明白，我們 99% 的交易不需要 HSR 備案，因為我們收購的小型私人醫療公司幾乎全部在 1.25 億美元以下。因此我們的 HSR 申請非常非常少。事實上，我們目前還沒有計劃提交 HSR 申請的交易，而且今年迄今為止也沒有任何交易。所以我不希望我們的任何併購交易出現任何延遲。

But I can understand how if you're acquiring public companies or doing very large transactions there could be a slowing due to the change in the HSR process this past February.

但我可以理解，如果你收購上市公司或進行非常大的交易，由於今年 2 月 HSR 流程的變化，可能會出現放緩的情況。

Interesting. Okay. Yes. That's very, very helpful. Mary Anne, just so I have it. But the 2.8% volume decline, that excludes the Workday impact, right? Was that maybe something like 40 or 60 basis points, give or take?

有趣的。好的。是的。這非常非常有幫助。瑪麗安妮，我就是這樣的。但 2.8% 的交易量下降不包括 Workday 的影響，對嗎？那大概是 40 或 60 個基點左右吧？

That's right, Tyler. It's about 60 basis points would be a 1 day in the quarter.

沒錯，泰勒。大約 60 個基點相當於該季度的 1 天。

Okay. But it does include the 50 basis points from weather. So if you kind of look at it somewhat clean, maybe the rate of volume declines actually improved a bit sequentially if you take out weather and Chiquita is obviously now in the Workday?

好的。但它確實包括了天氣因素帶來的 50 個基點。因此，如果您以更清晰的視角來看待它，也許如果排除天氣因素，而 Chiquita 現在顯然處於工作日，那麼交易量下降的速度實際上會有所改善？

That's correct. And that's the point. I think Ron made that not only did we see sequential improvement in price, but we saw it in volume normalized for that. Net debt 2, 3 would be lower than most of the quarters last year, except one, where we had really lumpy outsized special waste cushions.

沒錯。這就是重點。我認為羅恩不僅讓我們看到了價格的連續上漲，還讓我們看到了交易量的正常化。淨債務 2、3 將低於去年大多數季度，但有一個季度除外，在該季度，我們的特殊廢物緩衝量確實非常龐大。

Okay. And then, Ron, just on landfill tons, I know those are probably kind of real-time indicator, if you will. Just I know you gave the monthly through March, but anything in April since all of this seemed to happen in April, just any date on the landfill tons?

好的。然後，羅恩，僅就垃圾掩埋噸而言，我知道這些可能是即時指標，如果你願意的話。我只知道您給出了截至三月份的月度數據，但是由於所有這些似乎都發生在四月份，所以四月份的任何數據都是關於垃圾掩埋噸位的任何日期嗎？

Yes, I can provide that actually received it last night on our flash, Tyler. So the last 4-week average(inaudible) are up 4.5%. And year-to-date, they were up exactly 3%.

是的，我可以告訴你，泰勒，我們昨晚確實收到了它。因此，過去 4 週的平均值（聽不清楚）上漲了 4.5%。今年迄今，其漲幅已剛好為 3%。

Okay. Excellent. My last one here I just thought I was very interested in the comments about incidents. I think you said record lows. I'm curious what's driving -- yes, is that just cultural technology helping? Just any color on what's driving that?

好的。出色的。我在這裡的最後一個評論只是我認為我對事件的評論非常感興趣。我認為你說的是歷史最低點。我很好奇是什麼在推動——是的，那隻是文化技術的幫助嗎？有什麼跡象表明這背後的原因是什麼嗎？

And then maybe you can just help us understand how the insurance markets work. I know that not having an accident is good in real time, but it does take a while for it to show up in insurance premiums. Can you just maybe give us some color there? Thank you, guys.

然後也許您可以幫助我們了解保險市場是如何運作的。我知道在現實生活中沒有發生事故是件好事，但它需要一段時間才能體現在保費中。您能給我們講講這個嗎？謝謝你們。

Yes. Sure, Tyler. All right, multiple parts to that question. I'll try to answer. So first off, what is driving that is culture.

是的。當然，泰勒。好的，這個問題分為多個部分。我會盡力回答。首先，推動這項進程的是文化。

Number one, more than technology. We have had a very robust ecology for a very long period of time. We have used onboard cameras for over 20 years now. And of course, they have improved and the amount of views are improved. But our coaching effectiveness on [listeners] has improved company-wide to approaching 90% of all incidents that are detected on a daily basis via our technology.

第一，不僅僅是技術。長期以來，我們一直擁有非常強大的生態系統。我們使用車載攝影機已有 20 多年的歷史了。當然，他們已經進步了，觀看次數也增加了。但我們對[聽眾]的指導效果在全公司範圍內得到了提高，透過我們的技術每天檢測到的所有事件的比例接近 90%。

And that is a dramatic improvement for us. It's a huge cultural focus for us. To give you a perspective, I mean, we would typically, 2 years ago in the month of March, we had about 400 and some incidents, which can be as little as tapping a mailbox. So let me clarify that. And in the month -- this year, in the month of March, we were in the 200s with dramatically more vehicles on the road and employees.

這對我們來說是一個巨大的進步。這對我們來說是一個巨大的文化焦點。為了讓您有一個直觀的了解，我的意思是，兩年前的三月份，我們通常會發生大約 400 起事件，其中一些事件可能只是輕敲郵箱而已。讓我澄清一下。今年 3 月份，道路上的車輛和員工數量大幅增加，達到了 200 多輛。

So I would tell you that technology is part of it, but I would tell you it's 90% behavioral change through coaching and that's a cultural issue for us. As far as the insurance market, you are right. Safety is a leading indicator or incidence is a litigator of performance but risk insurance is a lagging indicator. So we reset our premiums every August to September with third party for our umbrella coverages on our risk for both workers' comp and third-party liability. And your severity in the prior 2 years really determines what's happening in your forward period.

所以我想告訴你，科技是其中的一部分，但我想告訴你，90% 的行為改變是透過指導實現的，這對我們來說是一個文化問題。就保險市場而言，您說得對。安全性是領先指標，或發生率是績效的訴訟因素，但風險保險是落後指標。因此，我們每年 8 月至 9 月都會重新設定保費，為工人賠償和第三方責任風險提供全面保障。而你前兩年的嚴重程度確實決定了你未來一段時間的情況。

So last August, we priced our insurance for the '25 calendar year, and that was based on the '23 and part of '24 performance. And that performance was not as good. We did have some serious losses in that period. And so that risk premium went up quite dramatically. In fact, our 5-year CAGR on insurance premium is about a 17% to 18% increase per year.

因此，去年 8 月，我們根據 23 年和 24 年的部分業績對 25 日曆年的保險進行了定價。但那次表現並不那麼好。那段時期我們確實遭受了一些嚴重損失。因此風險溢價大幅上升。事實上，我們的保險費5年複合年增長率約為每年17%至18%。

We are projecting with our current performance, if we hold that and continue this line, we'll begin dropping with the renewal this September. So we think we will start seeing some benefit in the P&L from our current performance throughout '26.

我們預計，按照目前的表現，如果我們保持這種狀態並繼續保持這種勢頭，那麼隨著今年 9 月的續約，我們的業績將開始下滑。因此，我們認為，從我們目前的業績來看，我們將在 26 年的損益表中看到一些好處。

Yes. The only other thing that I would add to that is that one observation is around claims take multiple years to develop. And so as you describe it, the risk is actually a lagging indicator and that's what we tried to describe. The one observation would be is that lag is a little longer arguably coming out of the pandemic. When you had a couple of things happen, you had a whole slowdown in the processing of claims, therefore, the development.

是的。我唯一想補充的是，一項觀察表明，索賠需要數年才能完成。正如您所描述的，風險實際上是一個滯後指標，這也是我們試圖描述的。一個觀察結果是，滯後時間可能會更長一些，可以說這是疫情造成的。當發生一些事情時，索賠處理速度就會整體放緩，因此發展也會放緩。

But then you also had outsized inflation. And so that has prolonged seeing the benefit in our P&L from our perspective. And as Ron said, we're looking forward to seeing that in the years ahead.

但隨後又出現了超大規模的通膨。因此，從我們的角度來看，這延長了我們在損益表中看到的好處。正如羅恩所說，我們期待在未來幾年看到這一點。

Yes. Perfect. Great colors. Thank you.

是的。完美的。顏色很棒。謝謝。

Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Konark Gupta。

This is [Eli] filling in for Konark. Just one question. Are you seeing any meaningful changes in the RNG landscape, be it demand or pricing or competition due to a more pro carbon administration?

這是 [Eli]，代替 Konark。只有一個問題。您是否看到 RNG 領域發生了任何有意義的變化，無論是需求、定價還是由於更支持碳排放管理而產生的競爭？

I would say that we really haven't, but if you think about where we are in the process of developing new facilities, bringing them online and existing facilities, we basically are -- this is a year of CapEx and the new facilities will be coming online in late '26. And so we might not be the best indicator of anything real time that might be developing there. What I can say is for existing facilities we have, as we noted in our remarks, that RINs are made very stable in that kind of 245 type of level. And we've seen them there really since the initial drop-off right on the election and the adjustment to the RVO last year, but they pretty much stabilized levels for most of Q1, and we haven't seen any change in Q2 to date.

我想說我們確實沒有，但如果你想想我們在開發新設施、將其上線和現有設施的過程中所處的位置，我們基本上是——這是資本支出的一年，新設施將在 26 年底上線。因此，我們可能無法成為那裡正在發生的任何即時事件的最佳指標。我可以說的是，對於我們現有的設施，正如我們在評論中指出的那樣，RIN 在 245 類型的級別上非常穩定。自從去年選舉和 RVO 調整以來，我們確實看到了它們的存在，但它們在第一季的大部分時間都保持了穩定的水平，到目前為止我們還沒有看到第二季度有任何變化。

That's helpful. Thank you. That's all my questions.

這很有幫助。謝謝。這就是我所有的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

Hi, good morning. This is Adam on for Jerry. Really strong core price of 6.9%, and it seems pretty robust in context of the guide initially put out of around 6%. Has your price plans changed at all since the start of the year? And it sounds like some of that has been driven by pricing retention. Are you seeing any change in pricing retention trends year-over-year or sequentially?

嗨，早安。這是亞當代替傑瑞上場。核心價格確實強勁，達到 6.9%，而且在最初給出的 6% 左右的指導價範圍內，這個數字似乎相當強勁。自今年年初以來，您的價格計劃有任何變化嗎？聽起來其中一部分是由價格保留所推動的。您是否看到價格保留趨勢同比或環比有任何變化？

Yes. So number one, nothing has changed, Adam. I think we originally guided that our price guidance was 6% to 6.5% was the range that we thought we would target for the full year. Remember, Q1, because of a lower seasonal denominator weather-wise and seasonality is always the highest point of your price and then it will step down sequentially. It doesn't step down.

是的。所以第一點，什麼都沒有改變，亞當。我認為我們最初指導的價格範圍是 6% 至 6.5%，這是我們認為全年的目標範圍。請記住，Q1，由於季節性分母較低，天氣和季節性始終是價格的最高點，然後它會依次下降。它不會下台。

It's just the denominator in the math changes. So it gives that appearance that the price is already input for the year. So no, there has been no change. I would tell you that the retention of the price has been better so far year-to-date than at this point last year or in '23. So that, I think, is very favorable overall.

這只是數學變化中的分母。因此看起來，該年度的價格已經輸入了。所以沒有，沒有任何變化。我想告訴你，今年迄今為止的價格保持情況比去年同期或 2023 年要好。所以，我認為，總體而言，這是非常有利的。

I think we've been a little more surgical about it, we're certainly attempting to be, and I think that is helping somewhat too. I also believe our staffing levels and being fully staffed the way we are helps assisting both in our service quality as well as our customer service response. It all sort of feeds holistically to why we would hopefully retain more of that price. So that's really -- but there has been no change in our approach from the beginning of the year.

我認為我們對此已經採取了更細緻的措施，我們也確實在努力這樣做，而且我認為這也有一定的幫助。我還相信，我們的人員配備水準以及人員配備方式有助於提高我們的服務品質和客戶服務回應。這一切都從整體上解釋了為什麼我們希望保留更多的價格。所以確實如此——但從今年年初開始我們的方法就沒有改變。

And then can you remind us how many different suppliers you use for your truck fleet? And it sounds like your visibility on capital is pretty locked in there for the year. But can you just update us on conversations you're having with suppliers in context of tariff-related inflation?

然後您能否提醒我們您的卡車車隊使用了多少個不同的供應商？聽起來你今年的資本可見度已經相當確定了。但是，您能否向我們介紹一下您與供應商在關稅相關通膨背景下進行的對話的最新情況？

Yes. So first off, we use -- I mean, we predominantly use about 4 chassis manufacturers and four or so body manufacturers. Obviously, it depends on the type of the fleet, meaning front load, rear load, side load, et cetera. So 4 and 4. As of today, we only have 10 remaining chassis for '25 to be built.

是的。首先，我們使用——我的意思是，我們主要使用大約 4 家底盤製造商和大約 4 家車身製造商。顯然，這取決於車隊的類型，即前載、後載、側載等等。所以是 4 和 4。截至今天，我們只剩下 10 個 '25 底盤需要製造。

That could even potentially be subjective to tariffs, and we are being told that there is up to perhaps a $3,500 per chassis. So when we say there's virtually no exposure that's what we mean by that. Body wise, we have not as of yet been told by a manufacturer, there will be any incremental tariffs or impacts to that. Now -- so we really have no concern about tariffs for our '25 CapEx to speak of. Now that could certainly change for '26 depending on what transpires with tariffs and what is included and excluded.

這甚至可能受到關稅的影響，我們被告知每個底盤的關稅最高可達 3,500 美元。所以當我們說幾乎沒有暴露時，我們的意思就是這個。就車身而言，目前還沒有製造商告訴我們，是否會有任何增量關稅或影響。現在 - 因此我們真的不必擔心 25 年資本支出的關稅。現在，這種情況在 26 年肯定會發生變化，具體取決於關稅的變化以及包括和排除的內容。

But for this year, we do not have any impacts, and we are not hearing any. On the parts side, we are making a move in some of our locations where some of our parts were coming from various countries that would be subjected to tariffs we are moving some of that parts inventory to domestic American manufacturers to avoid any potential there.

但就今年而言，我們沒有受到任何影響，也沒有聽到任何消息。在零件方面，我們正在一些生產基地採取行動，這些基地的部分零件來自可能受到關稅影響的不同國家，我們正在將部分零件庫存轉移到美國國內製造商，以避免任何潛在的關稅。

Great. Thanks so much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Trevor Romeo, William Blair.

特雷弗羅密歐、威廉布萊爾。

Good morning. I really appreciate you taking the questions.

早安.非常感謝您回答這些問題。

First one I had was on the incremental M&A that you've kind of announced this quarter, I think you specifically called out the state-of-the-art recycling facility in New Jersey. Just wondering if you could talk about that asset a little bit more. Why was it up that look attractive to you from a strategic perspective? Just any work on that would be great.

我首先要問的是您本季宣布的增量併購，我想您特別提到了新澤西州最先進的回收設施。只是想知道您是否可以再多談談該資產。從戰略角度來看，它為何對您具有吸引力？只要能做到這一點，任何工作都會很棒。

Sure. Happy to, Trevor. So the asset was a very large, as I said, state-of-the-art built within the last finish being built within the last 24 months, facility in the Hoboken, New Jersey area, just outside New York City. As you know, we have a very large presence in New York City and have been awarded 12 of the franchise areas in the city that will be rolled out over the course of the next 2 to 3 years and have just been started rolling out at the end of '24. Along with that becomes a large amount of recycling that we're doing today and that we will need to be doing.

當然。很高興，特雷弗。因此，正如我所說，該資產是一個非常大的、最先進的設施，在過去 24 個月內建成，位於新澤西州霍博肯地區，就在紐約市郊外。如您所知，我們在紐約市擁有很大的影響力，並已獲得該市 12 個特許經營區域，這些區域將在未來 2 到 3 年內陸續推出，並且剛剛在 24 年底開始推出。隨之而來的是，我們今天正在做的以及將來需要做的大量回收工作。

This facility can process up to 20,000 tonnes per month, so 0.25 million tonnes a year. It is a highly, highly automated facility, as I said, state-of-the-art using AI technology from an optical sorting from an air classification, et cetera. The facility is processing about 13,000 to 14,000 tons a month right now as it speaks, and we have not begun to bring any of ours into it. So multi-generational company, very well-known company that had been in business in the New Jersey area for 70-plus years had -- actually had a facility fire several years ago, about 3.5 years ago, and they ended up rebuilding this state-of-the-art facility. So a couple have been tracking for many years.

該設施每月可處理多達 20,000 噸，即每年 25 萬噸。正如我所說，這是一個高度自動化的設施，採用了最先進的人工智慧技術，包括光學分選、空氣分類等等。目前，該工廠每月加工量約為 13,000 至 14,000 噸，而我們尚未開始將任何產品運入其中。這家傳承了多代的公司，是一家在新澤西地區經營了 70 多年的非常知名的公司，幾年前，大約 3.5 年前，發生了一場工廠火災，最終他們重建了這座最先進的工廠。因此一對夫婦已經追蹤多年。

And as we continue to grow there and knew we needed incremental processing after we acquired the Royal Waste transaction last year, we had been working on this. The Royal Waste transaction in New York City came along in Queens, with a fantastic recycling facility as well, but we are literally bursting at the themes at that facility and needed incremental processing capacity to continue our expansion in New York City.

隨著我們在那裡的不斷發展，並且我們知道在去年收購皇家廢物處理公司後我們需要增量處理，所以我們一直在致力於此。紐約市皇家廢棄物處理公司在皇后區開展業務，同樣擁有出色的回收設施，但該設施已不堪重負，需要增加處理能力才能繼續在紐約市擴張。

Thank you, Ron. That's great color.

謝謝你，羅恩。顏色真棒。

That's great color. And then maybe one for Mary Anne. I guess, on the Q2 guidance, I think the margins of 32.7%, if I heard you right, I think that's maybe a little less year-over-year expansion than what you've kind of seen lately. So are there any kind of headwinds to margin you call out in Q2? Or could you just kind of talk through some of the upside or downside to that Q2 margin?

顏色真棒。然後也許還有一個給瑪麗安妮。我想，就第二季的指引而言，我認為利潤率為 32.7%，如果我沒聽錯的話，我認為這可能比你最近看到的同比增長率要低一些。那麼，您認為第二季利潤率會面臨哪些不利因素？或者您能否簡單談談第二季度利潤率的一些好處或壞處？

Sure. Important to keep in mind really the drivers of last year's margins and the impact the commodities and acquisitions on reported margins. And so when I think about what changes year-over-year in Q2 versus Q1, there's about 40 basis points more drag in Q2, specifically from the fact that for commodities, Q2 was the highest level last year, and so the headwind is greater. And then you have less benefit from the rollover impact of acquisitions. Last year, of course, you had the benefit of secure and that dissipates over the course of this year, and that becomes a drag.

當然。真正重要的是要牢記去年利潤率的驅動因素以及商品和收購對報告利潤率的影響。因此，當我思考第二季度與第一季相比的同比變化時，我發現第二季度的阻力增加了大約 40 個基點，特別是因為對於大宗商品而言，第二季度是去年的最高水平，因此阻力更大。那麼，你從收購的展期影響中獲得的利益就會減少。當然，去年你享有安全的好處，但這種好處在今年就消失了，並成為一種拖累。

So think of it as [4] basis points different, and that gets you very close to the year-over-year margin we just demonstrated in Q1.

因此，可以將其視為 [4] 個基點的差異，這就非常接近我們在第一季展示的同比利潤率。

Okay, that makes sense. Thank you very much.

好的，這很有道理。非常感謝。

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

This is [Yehuda Silverman] on for Toni Kaplan. Just a quick question on margins. What expectation embedded in the guide regarding inflation? Like how should we think about margins in 2025 if let say inflation lingers rather than moderate?

我是 [Yehuda Silverman]，為 Toni Kaplan 報道。我只是想問一下關於利潤率的問題。該指南中對於通膨有何預期？例如，如果通貨膨脹持續存在而不是緩和，我們應該如何看待 2025 年的利潤率？

Yes. So coming into the year, we certainly were mindful of the fact that CPI prints were lower, but we think in terms of our own cost inflation and not so much headline inflation as what's driving our -- the pricing and how we think about that. So as we've said, we're delivering 6% core price. And what we would say is that our cost inflation is running in the 4% to 4.5%. So that comfortably gives you the [150] basis point spread between cost and price that we typically look for more think in terms of and certainly feel very comfortable because what we've seen in terms of our major cost pressures led by labor specifically, is that those pressures have mitigated and so that spread is actually widening.

是的。因此，進入今年以來，我們當然注意到了消費者物價指數 (CPI) 數據較低，但我們考慮的是自身的成本通膨，而不是整體通膨，而是推動我們定價的因素以及我們對此的看法。正如我們所說，我們提供 6% 的核心價格。我們可以這麼說，我們的成本通膨率在 4% 到 4.5% 之間。因此，這可以輕鬆地為您提供成本和價格之間的 [150] 個基點差價，我們通常會更多地考慮這個差價，並且當然感到非常舒服，因為我們看到，就我們的主要成本壓力而言，特別是由勞動力導致的，這些壓力已經減輕，因此差價實際上正在擴大。

So if in your example, if things were to pick up a little, we would absorb it with the pricing we've already done.

因此，如果在您的例子中，情況有所好轉，我們將透過已經完成的定價來吸收它。

Great. And just one more question regarding volume. So especially given the slowdown years recently that have become more rampant, can you remind us which areas would get hit the most or impacted the both negatively and potentially positively during the slowdown?

偉大的。還有一個關於音量的問題。那麼，特別是考慮到最近幾年經濟放緩變得更加嚴重，您能否提醒我們，在經濟放緩期間哪些領域會受到最嚴重的打擊，或產生負面和潛在的正面影響？

Sure. So if you think about what is the most cyclically exposed piece of the solid waste business, that would be the roll-off side of collection, so construction levered and then, of course, construction and demolition debris at our landfills. To give you some context, in the aggregate, it's about 10% of our revenue, which is more cyclically exposed. And on the collection side, the way that you adjust to that dynamically adjust that is a point-to-point business. It's not route-based, so you have the opportunity, too.

當然。因此，如果你想想固體廢棄物業務中最受週期性影響的部分是什麼，那就是收集的滾裝部分，因此是建築槓桿，當然還有我們垃圾掩埋場的建築和拆除碎片。為了讓您了解一些背景信息，總的來說，這約占我們收入的 10%，而且更具週期性。在收集方面，您適應動態調整的方式是點對點業務。它不是基於路線的，所以你也有機會。

It's not only the lowest margin piece of the collection business, but you're able to dynamically adjust to activity levels. And so that's where you would expect to see it primarily in those areas.

它不僅是收集業務中利潤最低的部分，而且您還可以根據活動水平進行動態調整。因此，您主要會在這些地區看到它。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

James Schumm, TD Cowen.

詹姆斯·舒姆（James Schumm），TD Cowen。

Very good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions.

大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。

Maybe, Mary Anne, just sort of following on to your point about price cost spread. You kind of -- you priced at 6.9% in the first quarter, your inflation is 4.5%. So the spread looks a lot wider here. Was there any thoughts to raising the 2025 guidance? Are you being a little conservative because we're so early in the year and the macro is uncertain or -- but it seems like that spread.

瑪麗安，也許我只是在延續你關於價格成本差價的觀點。第一季的價格為 6.9%，通貨膨脹率為 4.5%。因此，這裡的傳播範圍看起來要廣得多。有沒有想過要提高 2025 年的指導價？您是否有些保守，因為今年還處於初期階段，宏觀經濟還不確定——但看起來這種趨勢已經蔓延開來。

You've got a lot of wiggle room there. Can you just talk to that a little bit?

你在這方面還有很大的迴旋餘地。能簡單談一下這個嗎？

Sure. Happy to address that. And important to clarify. So coming into any year, our reported price as Ron made reference to earlier, is it would typically be highest in Q1, and that's really just a function of the math of how you calculate the dollar contribution from price as the denominator gets bigger over the course of the year. So one shouldn't generalize from 6.9% in Q1.

當然。很高興解決這個問題。澄清這一點很重要。因此，正如羅恩之前提到的，在任何一年，我們的報告價格通常在第一季最高，而這實際上只是一個數學函數，即如何計算價格對美元的貢獻，因為分母在一年中會變得越來越大。因此，我們不應該根據第一季的 6.9% 來概括。

We said it's a little better than expected, and it gives us incremental conviction on 6% plus pricing the full year but you should fully expect that number on a reported basis to step down over the course of the year. So that tells you that you'd step down from 6.9 to numbers that are lower than that, and optically, you'd go below 6% as you move through the year to average 6, right? So that's all in with our expectations, retention a little better in Q1. So that's the math on reported pricing. The second point regarding adjusting our outlook after what we've described as a very strong Q1.

我們說這比預期要好一點，並且它讓我們對全年 6% 以上的定價更有​​信心，但你完全應該預料到，報告的數字會在一年內下降。所以這告訴你，你會從 6.9 降到低於這個數字，並且從視覺上講，隨著一年的推移，你會低於 6% 達到平均值 6，對嗎？這一切都符合我們的預期，第一季的保留率會更好一些。這就是報告定價的計算結果。第二點是關於在我們描述為非常強勁的第一季之後調整我們的前景。

The short answer is we typically don't review our outlook until the midpoint of the year when we have 2 quarters under our belt. If you think about it, we give quarterly guidance, so we give a lot of information each quarter. And even though Ron did take the opportunity to reiterate the full year that was really within the context of recognizing the macro uncertainty that was impacting other people's view of their numbers for the full year. So what people should expect is as is customary, we will make the adjustments reflecting any of the changes we've seen, whether they're acquisitions or commodity values or other things that impact the full year, we'll do that in July.

簡而言之，我們通常要等到年中，也就是已經經歷了兩個季度之後，才會重新審視我們的前景。如果你仔細想想，我們會提供季度指導，所以我們每個季度都會提供大量資訊。儘管羅恩確實藉此機會重申了全年業績，但這實際上是在認識到宏觀不確定性影響其他人對全年數據看法的背景下。因此，人們應該期待的是，按照慣例，我們將根據所看到的任何變化做出調整，無論是收購、商品價值還是影響全年的其他因素，我們都將在 7 月進行調整。

Got it. Great. Thanks for that. Maybe I could squeeze two more quick ones in, if possible. What's the volume progression throughout the year? Can you give us a sense of how that trends and maybe what the exit rate is?

知道了。偉大的。謝謝。如果可能的話，也許我可以再擠出兩個時間。全年銷量成長如何？您能否告訴我們這種趨勢如何以及退出率是多少？

And then lastly, SG&A was up 13% over year in the first quarter. Just curious what's driving that? And what would -- what are your expectations for the rest of the year?

最後，第一季銷售、一般及行政費用年增 13%。只是好奇是什麼導致了這種情況？那麼，您對今年剩餘時間有什麼期望呢？

So starting with the SG&A. First, you need to normalize for the expensing of acquisition-related expenses that we adjust for. And so that comes out of SG&A. I think that was almost $13 million in the quarter, and that was up $2 million or $3 million from last year. So that's 1 observation.

因此，從銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 開始。首先，您需要將我們調整的收購相關費用進行標準化。這就是銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 的支出。我認為本季的收入接近 1300 萬美元，比去年增加了 200 萬或 300 萬美元。這就是 1 個觀察。

And then the other would just be that sometimes there's lumpy moves and one of them is incentive comp. And -- so it's a good thing when it increases your numbers in the current year. And so I'd say that the single largest increase would be there. And then (multiple speakers) --

另一個就是有時會出現不平衡的舉動，其中之一就是激勵補償。因此，當它增加當年的數字時，這是一件好事。所以我認為最大的增幅會出現在那裡。進而（多位發言者）——

With regards to the volume progression, James. So as we pointed out on the call, I think it normalize weather, you would see that the -- at Chiquita, which we have said we have normalized for, which we closed on January 1. And you would be at about a negative 2.3 in that range. About 100 basis points of that is conscious price volume trade-off. And so that will continue.

關於音量的進展，詹姆斯。因此，正如我們在電話中指出的那樣，我認為天氣會正常化，你會看到——在 Chiquita，我們已經說過天氣已經正常化，我們在 1 月 1 日關閉了該公司。在這個範圍內你會達到大約-2.3。其中約 100 個基點是有意識的價格量權衡。這種情況將會持續下去。

We will continue to make that trade-off. And then about (inaudible) of that is contracts that we have shed. So again, that will continue because those contracts have been canceled by us or not renewed. So that puts you at about a negative 2% as a starting point. So the delta to that will be what happens in special waste and what happens in C&D which are somewhat, as you know, economically driven.

我們將繼續做出這種權衡。然後關於（聽不清楚）那是我們已經擺脫的合約。所以，這種情況還會繼續，因為這些合約已被我們取消或未續約。因此，您的起點大約為負 2%。因此，其差異在於特殊廢物和 C&D 中發生的情況，正如您所知，這在某種程度上是由經濟驅動的。

If those are -- as we said in the first quarter, special waste was up, C&D was down a little. Taken together, they were about flat. So if that continues to improve, then you will eat away against that negative 2% number. If that were to decrease because of (inaudible) activity, it would get a little worse. But there is nothing going on within that other than those 2 things.

如果是這樣的話——正如我們在第一季所說的那樣，特殊廢物增加了，而建築垃圾減少了一點。綜合起來，它們基本上持平。因此，如果情況持續改善，那麼就會抵銷掉-2%這個數字。如果因為（聽不清楚）活動而減少，情況就會變得更糟。但除了這兩件事之外，沒有發生其他事情。

As we have said, we have been effectively, and I say we, I mean the economic environment in a flat, no growth economic environment for 10 consecutive quarters now. Roll-off pulls have been plus 1% to 2%, down 1% to 2%. Landfill volumes have been plus 1% to 2%, down 1% to 2% for 10 straight quarters now. We've covering 45 states and 7 provinces in Canada with over 10 million customers. If volume is there, we get it.

正如我們所說，我們的經濟環境已經連續 10 個季度處於平緩、無成長的狀態。滾降拉動率上升 1% 至 2%，下降 1% 至 2%。垃圾掩埋量已連續 10 個季度增加 1% 至 2%，下降 1% 至 2%。我們的業務涵蓋了加拿大 45 個州和 7 個省，擁有超過 1000 萬客戶。如果數量充足，我們就得到它。

It's just that simple. We've just spent in a no-growth environment, I know the government will report close to 2% GDP. But if you take out federal government spending, it's negative. We don't do business with the federal government. So when volume happens in the economy, we will have it.

就這麼簡單。我們剛剛在零成長的環境中度過了這段時間，我知道政府將報告接近 2% 的 GDP。但如果扣除聯邦政府支出，則為負數。我們不與聯邦政府做生意。因此，當經濟出現量的時候，我們就會擁有它。

Okay, great. That's very helpful, guys. Thank you very much.

好的，太好了。夥計們，這非常有幫助。非常感謝。

Sabahat Khan, RBC Capital Markets.

Sabahat Khan，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Great, thanks and good morning.

太好了，謝謝，早安。

Great. Maybe just following along that line of commentary Ron and [Niel] share some comments around the special ways. Maybe if you could just think through what are some of the leading indicators you might be keeping an eye on to see where the special way some of the more C&D cyclical units might be trending? And with this flat environment, volumes have been call flat to negative. At what point in a typical economic cycle would those turn materially negative just based on your history with the company?

偉大的。也許只是沿著這條評論思路，羅恩和尼爾就特殊方式分享一些評論。也許，如果您能想清楚您可能會關注哪些領先指標，就能了解一些更具 C&D 週期性的單位可能呈現的特殊趨勢？在這種平淡的環境下，交易量一直處於持平甚至負值狀態。僅根據您在公司的歷史來看，在典型的經濟週期中，什麼時候這些因素會變成實質的負面影響？

Yes, Yes. Go ahead, Mary.

是的，是的。繼續吧，瑪麗。

So I'd start by just the observation that special waste and C&D can be very lumpy, right? So the main driver of volumes is, of course, MSW, which, as I said, was up 2%. We made the point that special waste while it was up 6%. First quarter last year, it was down 15%. This is -- so again, the lumpiness.

因此，我首先要觀察的是，特殊廢物和 C&D 可能會非常粗糙，對嗎？因此，數量的主要驅動因素當然是 MSW，正如我所說，其增長了 2%。我們指出，特殊廢棄物量上漲了 6%。去年第一季度，這一數字下降了 15%。這又是—塊狀的。

So when we think about what the leading indicators are the signs that special waste jobs are coming or maybe why they aren't or maybe why there's weakness, sometimes it (inaudible) like interest rates staying higher for longer, which discovers, for instance, speculative real estate development, which would lead to clearing a site, which is what we would describe as special waste when soil jobs come to the landfill. In the current environment, in one particular market, I can think of where there's been a slowdown it's that the state money that would go to those projects hasn't been authorized because the budget hasn't been passed.

因此，當我們思考哪些領先指標預示著特殊廢物處理工作即將到來，或者為什麼沒有出現特殊廢物處理工作，或者為什麼會出現疲軟的情況時，有時（聽不清）就像利率長時間保持在較高水平，例如，這會發現投機性房地產開發，這將導致清理場地，當土壤工作進入垃圾填埋場時，我們將其描述為特殊廢物。在當前環境下，在一個特定的市場中，我能想到的出現放緩的原因是，由於預算尚未通過，用於這些項目的政府資金尚未獲得授權。

So it can be dynamics like that, that slowed down job. What we've observed to date is that there haven't been the really big outsized infrastructure types of jobs. Instead, there have been small jobs spread across several markets that contributed, for instance, to the 6% increase year-over-year.

因此，它可能是一種動態現象，會減慢工作速度。到目前為止，我們觀察到還沒有出現真正大型的超大規模基礎設施類型的工作。相反，一些分佈在多個市場的小型工作促成了同比增長 6%。

And similarly, on the C&D side, where it's down, it wasn't one big job. It was several smaller jobs that didn't repeat. So small decreases across several markets. So those are just some observations about what we're seeing. And so really what needs to change for the pickup is more an economic activity.

同樣，在 C&D 方面，情況並不那麼糟糕，這並不是什麼大工程。這是幾項不重複的小工作。多個市場均出現小幅下降。這些只是我們對所見事物的一些觀察。因此，皮卡真正需要改變的更多的是一種經濟活動。

But as Ron said, which we just really haven't seen.

但正如羅恩所說，我們確實還沒有看到。

Yes. And I would add, we did a review with our field of our regional locations last Thursday and we are not seeing a decrease in backlog of jobs that are in the pipeline to be released. In fact, it is actually robust. What we're seeing is a delay in some cases, of the starting of the job and that is a state and local government reacting in large part to uncertainty at the federal level and so they are just holding back in many cases right now, I think waiting for greater clarity on what's going to transpire from a regulatory enforcement standpoint, as an example, from a budgetary standpoint as another example. So we're not seeing anything underlying that says there's anything unhealthy going on about there. But there definitely uncertainty is leading to delays. That's what I would say.

是的。我想補充一點，上週四我們對我們所在地區的實地情況進行了審查，我們發現即將發布的積壓工作量並沒有減少。事實上，它確實很強大。我們看到的是，在某些情況下，工作開始的時間有所延遲，這是州和地方政府對聯邦層面的不確定性做出的反應，因此他們現在在許多情況下都採取了觀望態度，我認為，他們正在等待從監管執法的角度和預算的角度更清楚地了解接下來會發生什麼。因此，我們沒有發現任何表明那裡存在不健康現象的潛在跡象。但不確定性肯定會導致延誤。這就是我要說的。

Great. That's great color. And then maybe just one quick follow-up on that. How do you think about given the lumpy nature of that business at times just managing the cost, how do you think about labor versus just other fixed costs in that business? And how nimble could some of those costs be just through the cycle?

偉大的。顏色真棒。然後也許只需對此進行一次快速跟進。考慮到該業務有時不穩定的性質，您如何看待成本管理，您如何看待勞動力與該業務中的其他固定成本？在整個週期中，這些成本的彈性如何？

Just some perspective on that, please.

請就此提出一些看法。

Well, I mean, I think I would point to this quarter. I mean we delivered in the seasonally weakest quarter, a 32% adjusted EBITDA margin. And we -- I don't know that we noted it in the call, but labor was down approaching 50 basis points from prior year period as a percentage of revenue. So we are managing it, I think, very closely, our field does an exceptional job of managing all expense lines, labor included as a percentage of net revenue, which is how we look at the business. And so that's a dynamic thing that we are doing on a daily basis at every one of our locations.

嗯，我的意思是，我想我會指出這個季度。我的意思是，我們在季節性最弱的季度實現了 32% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。我不知道我們是否在電話會議中提到了這一點，但勞動成本佔收入的百分比較去年同期下降了近 50 個基點。因此，我認為我們正在非常密切地管理它，我們的領域在管理所有費用項目方面做得非常出色，包括勞動力佔淨收入的百分比，這就是我們對業務的看法。這是我們在每個地點每天都在做的一件動態的事情。

The special waste business as you were asking the question, that's a landfill business. So it's a high fixed cost, low variable cost business. So it certainly is somewhat volume dependent. But I don't think you will find us in any environment, hiding behind expense management or lack of expense management as in the area of margin concern. That's not how we run the business, and we will deliver on the margin irrespective of what's transpiring in the revenue line.

正如您所問的特殊廢棄物業務，就是垃圾掩埋業務。所以這是一項固定成本高、變動成本低的業務。所以它肯定在某種程度上取決於體積。但我認為，在任何環境中，你都不會發現我們躲在費用管理或缺乏費用管理的背後，就像在利潤率問題領域一樣。這不是我們經營業務的方式，無論收入如何，我們都將實現利潤。

Great. And then just 1 quick last one. I guess, at a high level, I think over the last couple of years, a lot of progressive volumes still were being shed. Maybe is there any larger chunks remaining from past acquisitions? Or would you say it's more sort of (inaudible) run rate, shedding that will happen.

偉大的。然後只剩最後一個了。我想，從高層次來看，我認為在過去的幾年裡，大量的進步量仍然在減少。也許過去的收購還留下了更大的部分？或者你會說這更像是一種（聽不清楚）運行率，脫落將會發生。

I just want to get a perspective on that aspect of the volume.

我只是想了解一下該卷的這個方面。

Yes. First off, I would tell you that I believe finally that the shedding from volumes that we did not want to renew from Progressive is actually finely very close to done. The largest contract that was remaining, we gave up or did not renew October 1 of '24. So that is part of what's in the negative volume right now that will anniversary September 30 of this year and that was the largest one I know remaining there that we did not renew. Now we have had a very busy M&A for the last 3 to 4 years, as you are aware, certainly, at least the last 3 years, and so there is some remain -- there is some shedding that goes with that, but it is not nearly as large pieces as some of the stuff that we had consciously not renewed from the Progressive transaction we did in '16.

是的。首先，我要告訴你們，我相信，我們最終已經接近完成從 Progressive 續訂的那些卷的剝離工作。我們放棄了剩下的最大合同，或者說沒有在 1924 年 10 月 1 日續約。所以，這就是目前負值金額的一部分，該金額將於今年 9 月 30 日週年紀念日到來，而且據我所知，這是我們未續簽的最大金額。如您所知，我們在過去 3 到 4 年裡一直忙於併購，至少在過去 3 年裡是這樣，因此有一些剩餘的 - 有一些隨之而來的剝離，但它並不像我們在 2016 年進行的 Progressive 交易中有意不續簽的一些東西那麼大。

Thanks very much for the color in.

非常感謝你提供的顏色。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer & Co.

諾亞·凱伊（Noah Kaye），奧本海默公司

Good morning and thanks for taking the questions.

早上好，感謝您回答問題。

Sort of a housekeeping question that then plays into the 2Q outlook. Mary Anne, I think you had called out on the margin bridge for 2Q being up 10 bps, just a greater headwind sequentially from commodities. If I look at 1Q, it looked like the recycling commodities were only about a $2 million headwind to internal growth. And it's about mid-single digits versus recycling OCC prices being down close to 20%, as you said. So just trying to understand the disconnect there might have thought recycling would be down more?

這是一種內部問題，會影響第二季的前景。瑪麗安，我認為您曾指出，第二季度的保證金過橋費上漲了 10 個基點，這是大宗商品方面連續面臨的更大阻力。如果我看一下第一季度，看起來回收商品對內部成長造成的阻力僅約為 200 萬美元。正如您所說，這一價格約為中等個位數，而回收 OCC 價格則下降了近 20%。所以，只是想了解其中的脫節，可能認為回收率會下降更多？

And kind of what you're sort of expecting for 2Q? I guess the other component of that is RIN. So maybe just help us understand what we saw in the quarter on the recycling side and how we should be thinking about 2Q.

您對第二季有何期待？我猜其中的另一個組成部分是 RIN。所以也許只是幫助我們了解本季在回收方面看到的情況以及我們應該如何看待第二季。

Great question, Noah. So in Q1, while OCC was down 20%, you had other commodities, which were up year-over-year, for instance, other grades of fiber and plastics and metals. And so that mitigated the year-over-year impact. Now that was in line with our expectations, but the overall margin headwind that, that created year-over-year was only about 10 basis points. So I look at that, I look at RINs, which were effectively no impact, again, because not because of RINs, but for instance, natural gas was up year-over-year, and so that offset the margin headwind there.

好問題，諾亞。因此，在第一季度，雖然 OCC 下降了 20%，但其他商品的價格卻比去年同期上漲，例如其他等級的纖維、塑膠和金屬。因此，這減輕了同比影響。這符合我們的預期，但與去年同期相比，整體利潤率的下降幅度僅為 10 個基點左右。因此，我看一下，我看一下 RIN，這實際上沒有影響，再次強調，這不是因為 RIN，而是例如天然氣同比增長，從而抵消了那裡的利潤逆風。

And so when I look ahead, Q2 versus Q1, there are incremental headwinds since I don't have those same dynamics and the comp is harder because OCC increased by 10 basis points last year between Q1 and Q2. So those are the dynamics I was referring to that creates the incremental headwinds on the commodity-driven piece of the business.

因此，當我展望未來時，第二季度與第一季相比，逐漸增加的阻力，因為我沒有相同的動力，而且比較更加困難，因為去年第一季和第二季之間 OCC 增加了 10 個基點。所以，這些就是我所指的動態，它們對商品驅動的業務部分造成了逐漸增加的阻力。

Okay. That makes sense. And then Ron had mentioned M&A being potentially at the midpoint of the year already above kind of historical -- at or above historical average for everyone's reference, I assume that's still kind of roughly in the $200 million range. Maybe talk a little bit about, Ron, I think you alluded to the size before when we talked about , but just talk a little bit about the mix of deals you see potentially coming into the business.

好的。這很有道理。然後羅恩提到，到今年中期，併購交易額可能已經高於歷史平均水平——供大家參考，達到或超過歷史平均水平，我認為這仍然大約在 2 億美元的範圍內。也許可以稍微談一下，羅恩，我想你之前在我們談論的時候提到過規模，但請稍微談談你認為可能進入該業務的交易組合。

Sure. Yes. And to clarify, as you did, Noah, yes, I was referring to that $200 million was sort of a historically average year and that I expected us to be already at that number by the midpoint of the year. You are correct. That is what I was referencing.

當然。是的。需要澄清的是，正如諾亞所說，是的，我指的是 2 億美元是歷史平均水平，我預計到今年年中我們就能達到這個數字。你是對的。這就是我所指的。

So obviously, this would be well north of historically average year. Our mix of deals is across the board. We have deals going on in all five of our US regions and our Canadian region. It is a mix of -- I just say historical consistent solid waste deals.

因此，顯然，今年的產量將遠遠超過歷史平均值。我們的交易組合是全方位的。我們在美國五個地區和加拿大地區都有交易。它是混合的——我只是說歷史上一致的固體廢物處理。

This is nothing outside of historical solid ways. There are a few smaller E&P deals in there in both Canada and the United States in the Permian as well, but they are smaller relative to the solid waste side. These are tuck-ins. These are stand-alones. There are franchise deals, there are competitive market deals there.

這與歷史上可靠的做法毫無二致。加拿大和美國在二疊紀盆地也有一些規模較小的勘探與生產交易，但相對於固體廢棄物方面而言，這些交易規模較小。這些是塞進肚子裡的。這些都是獨立的。那裡有特許經營協議，有競爭性市場協議。

So I think -- but yes, I did say that there was no large singular deal requiring an HSR filing that is sitting there that is in that mix today. There are several deals in our pipeline that would require HSR filings. But I'm not expecting those to close by midyear. So that's what the mix is.

所以我認為——但是是的，我確實說過，目前不存在需要進行 HSR 備案的大型單一交易。我們正在進行的幾筆交易都需要 HSR 備案。但我並不期望這些交易能在年中完成。這就是混合物。

But if you think about it, Noah, since 125 is already done, this implies somewhere in the order of maybe it's $50 million to $100 million gets done between now and July. That's how you get to the, hey, we'll be at an average rate by the time we report Q2.

但如果你仔細想想，諾亞，既然 125 已經完成，這意味著從現在到 7 月之間可能會完成 5,000 萬到 1 億美元的工作。這樣，當我們報告第二季時，我們的成長率就會達到平均值。

Thanks so much. I'll turn it over.

非常感謝。我把它翻過來。

Bryan Burgmeier, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Bryan Burgmeier。

Morning. Thank you for taking the question. Maybe just following up on some of the volume questions from earlier. Can you just remind us about how much visibility you typically have into the special waste to kind of [event drip] disposal pipeline. Would you say 2Q projects are kind of like locked in at this point or projects kind of being added or moved right up until the last minute. Just trying to think about how that pipeline would kind of evolve as the macro environment changes this year?

早晨。感謝您回答這個問題。也許只是跟進之前提出的一些音量問題。您能否提醒我們，您通常對特殊廢棄物到 [事件滴漏] 處理管道的了解程度如何。您是否認為第二季度的項目目前已經被鎖定，或者項目直到最後一刻才被添加或移動？只是想想想，隨著今年宏觀環境的變化，這條管道將如何發展？

So Bryan, I'd say in a typical year, we would talk in terms of 90 days. We typically, as Ron said, we're talking to all of our regions at any point, we're looking at the quarter, I mean we have good visibility. And we'd say this year, that's a little stretched out, right, because we've seen these delays that Ron referred to.

所以布萊恩，我想說，在典型的一年中，我們會以 90 天為單位進行討論。正如羅恩所說，我們通常隨時與所有地區進行溝通，並關注本季度，我的意思是我們具有良好的可見性。我們會說，今年的情況有點拖延，對吧，因為我們已經看到了羅恩提到的這些延誤。

Yes. And I would also say, Bryan, that it's important to understand that special waste comes in all different types and sizes. You have special waste that comes from manufacturing and industrial production. I mean that's a very predictable waste stream because it's a byproduct of their operations. That is probably 60% to 70% of the special waste that we get, and that is very projectable and recurring.

是的。布萊恩，我還想說，重要的是要了解特殊廢物有各種不同的類型和大小。製造業和工業生產會產生特殊廢棄物。我的意思是，這是一個非常可預測的廢物流，因為它是他們運作的副產品。這大概占我們所得到的特殊廢物的 60% 到 70%，而且這是非常可預測和重複的。

The event-driven special waste is the larger projects that are, as Mary Anne alluded to earlier, they are infrastructure developed that's where you're tearing up roads, you're taking down bridges, you're taking down and rebuilding a stadium. You're cleaning up real estate for speculative development. That obviously is a little less predictable on the timing. You know it's going to happen because people pull permits, they're permitting these projects for years in advance. And then they get -- and then they have a window to complete the next phase at permitting, but that window can be a couple of years long.

事件驅動的特殊浪費是較大的項目，正如瑪麗安之前提到的，它們是基礎設施開發，其中包括拆除道路、拆除橋樑、拆除和重建體育場。您正在清理房地產以供投機開發。顯然，時間上的預測會稍微困難一些。你知道這會發生，因為人們會提前幾年獲得許可，批准這些項目。然後他們得到——然後他們有一個視窗來完成許可的下一階段，但這個視窗可能需要幾年的時間。

So the start and finish sates are a little more speculative in that piece but that's probably about 30% of what we referenced as special waste. So if you look at special waste as a total for the company, well less than 10% of total revenue, and then you say that 30% of that, 10% has -- you're talking about a couple, 2% to 3% that really has less visibility in it.

因此，本文對開始和結束狀態的推測性更強，但這可能占我們所指的特殊浪費的 30% 左右。因此，如果您將特殊廢棄物視為公司的總廢棄物，那麼它遠低於總收入的 10%，然後您說其中的 30%，10% — — 您所談論的是 2% 到 3% 的廢棄物，這其中的可見性確實較低。

Got it. Got it. And then just last question for me, just on kind Chiquita Canyon, I guess, first, are we still kind of using that $100 million to $150 million cost estimate for this year? And then second, can you maybe just provide sort of a general update on the status there? Are you satisfied with the progress you're making on the ETLF with temperatures, odor complaints, et cetera?

知道了。知道了。然後我最後一個問題，關於奇基塔峽谷，我想，首先，我們今年是否仍使用 1 億至 1.5 億美元的成本估算？其次，您能否提供一下那裡的整體情況更新？您對 ETLF 在溫度、氣味投訴等方面的進展滿意嗎？

Just sort of a general update on Chiquita.

這只是關於 Chiquita 的一般更新。

Thanks. I'll turn it over.

謝謝。我把它翻過來。

Yes. First off, to your first part of your question, we do believe that, that $100 million to $150 million is the right bandwidth for the projected outlay for this year, to answer your question. That starts higher in the beginning of the year because of the timing to the -- what we believe was the peak of the reaction, which was probably the late third, early fourth quarter of last year and volume levels, production levels of leachate have come down by about 30% almost from that peak. So that would track with that. And to answer your question, yes, everything we see from an engineering and environmental monitoring, both internally and through third-party experts, shows that the reaction is contained and stable.

是的。首先，針對您問題的第一部分，我們確實認為，1 億至 1.5 億美元是今年預計支出的正確頻寬，以回答您的問題。由於時間因素，年初產量較高——我們認為反應的高峰期可能是去年第三季末或第四季初，而滲濾液的產量水準已從高峰期下降了約 30%。所以這將與此相符。回答你的問題，是的，我們從工程和環境監測（包括內部和第三方專家）中看到的一切都表明反應是可控且穩定的。

We have completely sealed the area with approximately 50 acres of synthetic to contain odor Order complaints are down over 90% from their peak. And the volumes produced from the reaction are down, as I mentioned earlier, probably about 30% from their peak of sort of last July through September. So we continue to be -- believe that it is moving in the trajectory that was expected when this began.

我們已用大約 50 英畝的合成材料完全封閉了該區域以抑制氣味，訂單投訴量較高峰下降了 90% 以上。正如我之前提到的，反應產生的產量已經下降，可能比去年 7 月至 9 月的高峰下降了約 30%。因此，我們繼續相信，事情正按照一開始預期的軌跡發展。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮摩爾，傑富瑞集團。

Hi, good morning. Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to circle back on maybe the potential deregulation question. If you could maybe touch on the potential to see some changes at the EPA and what this can mean for regulations as it relates to PFAS and any other land cell-related regulations that you have dealt with over the last several years. Thanks for growth.

嗨，早安。謝謝。早安.我想再討論一次潛在的放鬆管制問題。您能否談談 EPA 可能發生的一些變化，以及這對與 PFAS 相關的法規以及您在過去幾年中處理的任何其他土地細胞相關法規意味著什麼。感謝成長。

Sure. Well, first off, I would say, Stephanie, that obviously, it's relatively recent. We have not seen decrease in regulation at this point through the EPA that would affect our business or bring any material change to our business from a reduction, if you will, in regulation. As you may know, the EPA is expected perhaps by June to clarify their position on PFAS. They have not done so.

當然。嗯，首先，我想說，史蒂芬妮，這顯然是相對較新的。目前，我們還沒有看到美國環保署 (EPA) 的監管減少，這不會影響我們的業務，也不會因為監管減少而為我們的業務帶來任何重大變化。您可能知道，美國環保署預計可能在 6 月之前澄清其對 PFAS 的立場。他們還沒有這樣做。

There has been some discussions by staff within the EPA. The industry has taken the position and the EPA has taken the position overall that the industry is a passive receiver. So that is, I think, an important distinction and one we believe and hope we'll stay at that and have reason to believe it will stay at that from conversations with the administration. But as far -- but we are prepared to and are handling PFAS. We have been beta testing, multiple technologies for the last actually 2 plus years at multiple of our sites.

環保署內部的工作人員已經進行了一些討論。業界和環保署都認為，整個產業都是被動接收者。所以，我認為，這是一個重要的區別，我們相信並希望我們能夠保持這種區別，並且有理由相信，從與政府的對話來看，我們會保持這種區別。但就目前而言——我們已經做好準備並正在處理 PFAS。過去兩年多來，我們一直在多個站點對多種技術進行 Beta 測試。

We have installed them at multiple of our sites. They work very efficiently to -- I'm going to use the word solidify PFAS. And then that solidification can be landfilled. So whatever the outcome of the EPA's regulation is we are not overly concerned. We have the technology.

我們已經在多個站點安裝了它們。它們的工作效率非常高——我將使用“固化 PFAS”這個詞。然後，固化物就可以被填埋。因此，無論美國環保署監管的結果如何，我們都不會太擔心。我們擁有這項技術。

The technology exists out there to fully comply with whatever they may do. And again, if they take a more aggressive stance, we see this as advantageous for the public companies who have the ability to comply and the ability to pass on a greater price than the cost of the compliance for that. So it's an opportunity either direction in our mind.

現有的技術可以完全滿足他們所做的一切要求。而且，如果他們採取更積極的立場，我們認為這對有能力遵守並有能力轉嫁高於遵守成本的價格的上市公司有利。所以在我們看來，無論哪個方向，這都是一個機會。

Absolutely. And then just one follow-up. If you could provide an update on your Arrowhead Landfill maybe ramping -- any update on the ramping of the rail shipments to that site and then maybe an appetite for bringing external volumes to the location. Thank you.

絕對地。然後只需進行一次跟進。如果您可以提供有關 Arrowhead 垃圾掩埋場的最新情況，也許可以提供有關該地點鐵路運輸量增加的最新信息，以及是否有興趣將外部貨物運送到該地點。謝謝。

Sure. Yes. As I'm sure you and others who followed us, we acquired the Arrowhead side, as you know, at the -- in August of '23. So we anniversaried it this past August. When we acquired it, that site was doing about 2,700 tonnes a day through a series of three intermodal transfer networks along the Eastern Seaboard in Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Jersey.

當然。是的。我相信您和其他關注我們的人都知道，我們在 2023 年 8 月收購了 Arrowhead 集團。所以我們在今年八月慶祝了周年紀念日。當我們收購該工廠時，該工廠每天透過馬薩諸塞州、康乃狄克州和新澤西州東海岸的三個多式聯運網路運輸約 2,700 噸貨物。

We now have that up on peak days to 7,500 to 8,000 tonnes a day. Those would be peak days that happened in the peak period, sort of in that August to September time frame, down a little seasonally from that at this time of the year. But we will approach 2 million tonnes there this year. And we believe as we come through '26 and beyond, we will -- that number will push quite north of that 2 million tonnes per year, which would get you closer to that 9,000 plus tonnes a day. So it is ramping.

現在，高峰期我們的日產量已達到 7,500 至 8,000 噸。這些都是高峰期的高峰日，大致在八月到九月的時間段內，與每年的這個時候相比，季節性下降了一點。但今年我們的產量將接近200萬噸。我們相信，隨著我們度過 26 年及以後，這個數字將遠遠超過每年 200 萬噸，接近每天 9,000 多噸。因此它正在逐漸增加。

A large part of that has been internal redirection of waste from sites that we have on the Eastern seaboard so that we can open up those sites under the permitted caps to third-party volumes. But -- and the last part of your question, our appetite for third-party volumes at Arrowhead is very high. And we are actively out there pursuing that through the intermodal networks along the Eastern Seaboard.

其中很大一部分是將我們位於東海岸的場地的廢物進行內部轉移，以便我們可以在允許的上限內向第三方開放這些場地。但是——以及你問題的最後一部分，我們對 Arrowhead 的第三方交易量的需求非常高。我們正在積極地透過東海岸的多式聯運網絡來實現這一目標。

Yes. And in the meantime, Stephanie, what you see is the increase in internalization, which you saw in our numbers and the benefits and third-party disposal and brokerage costs. So it's a very strategic purposeful move to internalize more of our tonnes.

是的。同時，史蒂芬妮，您看到的是內部化的增加，您可以從我們的數據、收益以及第三方處置和經紀成本中看到這一點。因此，將更多的噸位內部化是一個非常有戰略意義的舉措。

Great. Thank you guys very much.

偉大的。非常感謝你們。

Tyler Brown, Raymond James.

泰勒布朗、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Hey, thank you for the follow-up. Just Mary, Brown I have quick one here, maybe a few numbers, but I want to try to get this. So I think last quarter, you said that we should model about $300 million in incremental M&A in 25. I think at that time, you had closed $75 million, and now you've closed $125 million of annualized reps. But I also think, if I think back, you also said that some of the deals that were under LOI that had not been closed were in that $300 million, if I'm not mistaken. So basically, my question is given the incremental $50 million, should we change that $300 million number?

嘿，謝謝你的跟進。只是瑪麗，布朗我這裡有一個，也許有幾個數字，但我想嘗試得到這個。所以我認為上個季度您說過我們應該在 25 年內模擬約 3 億美元的增量併購。我認為當時您已經完成了 7500 萬美元的年化銷售收入，而現在您已經完成了 1.25 億美元的年化銷售收入。但我還認為，如果我回想一下，您也說過，一些尚未完成的意向書 (LOI) 交易的金額也在那 3 億美元之內，如果我沒記錯的話。所以基本上，我的問題是，考慮到增量的 5000 萬美元，我們是否應該改變 3 億美元這個數字？

Sorry for all the numbers. I know that's risky on a call, but any color there?

抱歉，所有的數字都是這樣的。我知道打電話會有風險，但有顏色嗎？

No problem. If you added about $25 million to $30 million, that would probably cover the incremental. When I think about what the increase was during the quarter in Q1, it was, I think, $8 million. So that's probably a fair way to think about it, annualize that.

沒問題。如果你增加大約 2500 萬到 3000 萬美元，那可能可以彌補增量。當我想到第一季的成長時，我認為是 800 萬美元。因此，將其年度化可能是一種公平的思考方式。

Okay. And then you added M&A versus Chiquita today on the call. So -- sorry, just to clarify, should we think about the $300 million net of Chiquita? Or are those two separate numbers?

好的。然後您在今天的電話會議上補充了與 Chiquita 的併購交易。所以——抱歉，只是想澄清一下，我們是否應該考慮 Chiquita 的 3 億美元淨額？還是這兩個是獨立的數字？

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ron Mittelstaedt for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Ron Mittelstaedt 並請他做最後發言。

Okay. Well, if there are no further questions, on behalf of our entire management team, we appreciate your listening to and interest in the call today. Mary Anne and Joe Box are available today to answer any direct questions that we did not cover that we are allowed to answer under Regulation FD, Regulation G and applicable securities laws in Canada. Thank you again, and we look forward to continuing -- connecting with you at WasteExpo upcoming investor conferences or on our next earnings call.

好的。好吧，如果沒有其他問題，我代表我們整個管理團隊感謝您今天的聆聽和對電話會議的關注。今天，Mary Anne 和 Joe Box 可以回答我們未涉及的任何直接問題，而這些問題我們可以根據 FD 規則、G 規則和加拿大適用的證券法進行回答。再次感謝您，我們期待繼續進行—在 WasteExpo 即將舉行的投資者會議或下一次財報電話會議上與您聯繫。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。