Waste Connections Inc (WCN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Waste Connections Inc. Q4 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Ron Mittelstaedt, President and CEO. Sir, please go ahead.

大家早安，歡迎參加 Waste Connections Inc. 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）另請注意，今天的活動正在被記錄。現在，我想把發言權交給總裁兼執行長 Ron Mittelstaedt。先生，請說。

Thank you, operator, and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to this conference call to discuss fourth quarter results and our outlook for both the first quarter and full year 2025. I'm joined this morning by Mary Anne Whitney, our CFO; and several other members of our senior management.

謝謝接線員，早安。我歡迎大家參加本次電話會議，討論第四季度的業績以及我們對 2025 年第一季和全年的展望。今天早上和我一起參加的是我們的財務長 Mary Anne Whitney；以及我們的其他幾位高階主管。

As noted in our earnings release, Q4 provided a solid finish to a year of extraordinary accomplishments for Waste Connections, both financially with double-digit growth in both revenue and adjusted EBITDA and operationally with accelerating improvements in employee engagement and retention, along with the integration of record levels of private company acquisitions, which totalled approximately $750 million in annualized revenue in 2024.

正如我們在收益報告中所述，第四季度為 Waste Connections 取得了非凡成就的一年畫上了圓滿的句號，無論是在財務上，收入和調整後 EBITDA 均實現了兩位數增長，在運營上，員工敬業度和保留率不斷提高，同時還整合了創紀錄水平的私營公司收購，到 2024 年總額約為 7.5 億美元。

Most importantly, our continued focus on human capital, resulted in multiyear lows for employee turnover, now down over 1,000 basis points from 2022 with the associated improvements in operational execution, providing momentum for another year of outsized margin expansion in 2025.

最重要的是，我們持續關注人力資本，導致員工流動率達到多年來的最低水平，目前已比 2022 年下降了 1,000 多個基點，並且運營執行也得到了相應的改善，為 2025 年利潤率再次大幅擴張提供了動力。

Price-led organic solid waste growth along with improving commodities and ongoing acquisition activity should position us at or above the high end of our range of potential outcomes with normalized adjusted free cash flow in excess of $1.55 billion. Before we get into much more detail, let me turn the call over to Mary Anne for our forward-looking disclaimer and other housekeeping items.

價格主導的有機固體廢棄物成長、商品改善和持續的收購活動應使我們達到或超過潛在結果範圍的高端，標準化調整後的自由現金流將超過 15.5 億美元。在我們討論更多細節之前，讓我先將電話轉給瑪麗安妮，讓她聽取我們的前瞻性免責聲明和其他常規事項。

Thank you, Ron, and good morning. The discussion during today's call includes forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian Securities Laws. Actual results could differ materially from those made in such forward-looking statements due to various risks and uncertainties.

謝謝你，羅恩，早安。今天電話會議中的討論包括根據美國 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法的安全港條款做出的前瞻性陳述，包括適用加拿大證券法含義內的前瞻性資訊。由於各種風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述的結果有重大差異。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ discussed both in the cautionary statement included in our February 12 earnings release and in greater detail in Waste Connections filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Securities Commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada.

可能導致實際結果不同的因素在我們 2 月 12 日收益報告中的警告聲明中以及 Waste Connections 向美國證券交易委員會以及加拿大證券委員會或類似監管機構提交的文件中均有更詳細的討論。

You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as there may be additional risks of which we are not presently aware or that we currently believe are immaterial, which could have an adverse impact on our business. We make no commitment to revise or update any forward-looking statements in order to reflect events or circumstances that may change after today's date.

您不應過度依賴前瞻性陳述，因為可能存在我們目前尚未意識到的或我們目前認為不重要的其他風險，這些風險可能會對我們的業務產生不利影響。我們不承諾修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述以反映今天之後可能發生變化的事件或情況。

On the call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income attributable to Waste Connections on both a dollar basis and per diluted share and adjusted free cash flow. Please refer to our earnings releases for a reconciliation of such non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures. Management uses certain non-GAAP measures to evaluate and monitor the ongoing financial performance of our operations. Other companies may calculate these non-GAAP measures differently.

在電話會議上，我們將討論非公認會計準則指標，例如調整後的 EBITDA、以美元和每股攤薄計算的歸屬於 Waste Connections 的調整後淨收入以及調整後的自由現金流。請參閱我們的收益報告，以了解此類非 GAAP 指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的調整。管理階層使用某些非公認會計準則指標來評估和監控我們營運的持續財務表現。其他公司可能會以不同的方式計算這些非公認會計準則指標。

I will now turn the call back over to Ron.

我現在將電話轉回給羅恩。

Thank you, Mary Anne. As noted, 2024 was an extraordinary year at Waste Connections by any number of measures, including safety performance, employee engagement and retention, acquisition activity, financial results and ultimately value creation.

謝謝你，瑪麗安妮。如上所述，從多項指標來看，2024 年對 Waste Connections 來說都是不平凡的一年，包括安全績效、員工敬業度和留任率、收購活動、財務表現以及最終的價值創造。

Solid waste core pricing of 7.1% was supported by strong operational execution and record levels of acquisition integration to drive industry-leading margins for the whole company, that is not just solid waste of 32.5%, up 100 basis points year-over-year despite significant commodity, RINs and FX declines in Q4. As we have indicated, we maintain that the best leading indicator of performance is voluntary turnover, which has declined by 50% in less than two years to below 13% now.

固體廢棄物核心定價為 7.1%，得益於強大的營運執行力和創紀錄的收購整合水平，推動整個公司利潤率達到行業領先水平，而不僅僅是 32.5% 的固體廢棄物，儘管第四季度大宗商品、RIN 和外匯大幅下降，但仍同比增長 100 個基點。正如我們已經指出的，我們認為最好的業績領先指標是自願離職率，而這一數字在不到兩年的時間內已經下降了 50%，目前已降至 13% 以下。

Over the same period, we have also seen a reduction of over 60% in open employee positions, with every region at or below targeted levels of 3% to 4%, down from 7.5%. Additionally, our 2024 employee engagement scores showed continuous improvement from an already high base on record levels of employee participation.

在同一時期，我們也看到空缺職位減少了 60% 以上，每個地區的空缺職位都達到或低於 3% 到 4% 的目標水平，低於 7.5%。此外，我們的 2024 年員工敬業度得分在創紀錄的員工參與度水準的基礎上繼續提高。

We are seeing traction from higher staffing levels and expanded frontline training. We're sending more new and existing employees through our in-house commercial driver academies and realizing the benefits from that engagement in both improved retention and safety statistics.

我們看到了更高的人員配備水平和擴大第一線培訓的推動力。我們正在透過內部商業駕駛學院派遣更多的新員工和現有員工，並從這種參與中獲益，既提高了員工留任率，又提高了安全統計數據。

We're also reducing overtime as well as reliance on third-party services, improving service levels, customer satisfaction and employee morale while also maximizing the integration benefits from new acquisitions and providing more avenues for growth.

我們也減少加班和對第三方服務的依賴，提高服務水準、顧客滿意度和員工士氣，同時最大限度地發揮新收購帶來的整合效益，並提供更多的成長途徑。

In short, we've achieved the balance in service quality, pricing, retention and acquisition integration that we've been working towards over the past 18 months. The benefits of these improving trends were evident in Q4 when we delivered a 6.7% core price and overcame the FX of an additional 0.5 point of negative volume as a result of our decision to ramp down activity at Chiquita Canyon landfill.

簡而言之，我們在過去 18 個月一直努力實現服務品質、定價、保留和收購整合方面的平衡。這些改善趨勢帶來的好處在第四季度顯而易見，我們實現了 6.7% 的核心價格，並克服了由於我們決定減少 Chiquita Canyon 垃圾掩埋場的活動而導致的額外 0.5 個點的負交易量的外匯影響。

This reduction, along with the combined headwinds from the sequential decline in commodities, RINs and FX rates during the second -- during the quarter accounted for more than 60 basis points margin impact relative to our Q4 guidance.

這一降幅，加上第二季大宗商品、RIN 和外匯匯率連續下跌帶來的綜合不利因素，導致利潤率相對於我們的第四季指引產生了超過 60 個基點的影響。

The good news is that RINs have already bounced back to about 250 and commodities have firmed up from recent lows. For the full year 2024, we delivered better-than-expected adjusted free cash flow of $1.218 billion, converting over 50% of adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow, normalized for RNG project CapEx and over $200 million in outlays associated with the site-specific impacts at our Chiquita Canyon landfill in Southern California, reflecting adjusted free cash flow of over $1.4 billion in the base business, excluding Chiquita.

好消息是，RIN 已經反彈至 250 左右，大宗商品也已從近期低點回升。2024 年全年，我們實現了好於預期的 12.18 億美元調整後自由現金流，將超過 50% 的調整後 EBITDA 轉化為調整後的自由現金流，根據 RNG 項目資本支出和超過 2 億美元的與南加州 Chiquita Canyon 垃圾填埋場特定場地影響相關的支出進行標準化，反映了基礎業務不超過 Chiquita Canyon 垃圾填埋場特定場地影響相關的支出。

On the subject of Chiquita Canyon, we made the decision to close active waste disposal operations at the site as of year-end 2024. While we do have remaining airspace available at the site, we determined it was no longer feasible to continue operations due to the imposition of tonnage limits taking effect on January 1, 2025, and the final permit approval needed for Chiquita to access otherwise permitted and constructed airspace, along with incremental capital requirements.

關於奇基塔峽谷，我們決定在 2024 年底關閉該地點的現行廢棄物處理作業。雖然我們在該地點確實有剩餘的空域可用，但由於 2025 年 1 月 1 日生效的噸位限制措施，以及 Chiquita 進入其他許可和建造的空域所需的最終許可批准以及增量資本要求，我們認為繼續運營已不再可行。

Although not our preferred choice long term, closing Chiquita was within the range of potential outcomes contemplated when we provided a preliminary framework for 2025 back in October. And we have successfully redirected a significant portion of the waste throughput to another of our landfills in Central California, put simply, the economics of operating no longer made financial sense.

儘管從長期來看關閉 Chiquita 並不是我們的首選，但早在 10 月我們提出 2025 年的初步框架時，關閉 Chiquita 就在我們的考慮範圍之內。我們已成功將很大一部分垃圾處理量轉移到加州中部的另一個垃圾掩埋場，簡而言之，營運的經濟性不再具有經濟意義。

We will, of course, continue to manage the site, including addressing the elevated temperature landfill or ETLF event as well as honoring our commitments with respect to closure and post-closure as and when appropriate.

當然，我們將繼續管理該場址，包括解決垃圾掩埋場溫度升高或ETFL事件，以及在適當的時候履行有關關閉和關閉後的承諾。

Mary Anne will cover the impacts to our 2024 financial results and closure and post-closure liabilities in Q4 to address and mitigate the ETLF event impacts, which, as we've noted before, are site-specific and non-recurring in nature.

瑪麗安 (Mary Anne) 將介紹對我們 2024 年財務業績以及第四季度關閉和關閉後負債的影響，以解決和減輕 ETFL 事件的影響，正如我們之前提到的，這些影響是針對特定地點的和非經常性的。

Looking next at acquisitions. In 2024, we closed approximately $750 million in annualized revenue from 24 acquisitions, with deals in E&P Waste and across our footprint of solid waste franchises and competitive markets, including acquisitions that can be internalized into our disposal network, plus new market entries and a number of tuck-ins to existing operations.

接下來來看看收購。2024 年，我們透過 24 項收購實現了約 7.5 億美元的年化收入，這些交易涉及 E&P Waste 以及我們的固體廢物特許經營權和競爭市場，包括可以內部化到我們的處置網絡中的收購，以及新的市場進入和一些現有業務的收購。

We continue to have a robust pipeline. In fact, we have -- we already have over $75 million in annualized revenue, either closed or signed and expected to close during Q2. We bringing the 2025 expected revenue contribution from acquisitions to over $300 million as we sit here in early February.

我們持續擁有強勁的通路。事實上，我們已經有超過 7500 萬美元的年化收入，無論是已完成的還是已簽署的，預計將在第二季完成。截至 2 月初，我們預計 2025 年收購帶來的營收貢獻將超過 3 億美元。

Our disciplined approach to acquisitions remains unchanged and relationship-driven with our focus as always on market selection, the risk profiles we accept and the valuations we determined to be appropriate. As we say, what matters is in closing deals but integrating and delivering results to provide value creation and to maintain low leverage for continued growth.

我們對收購的嚴謹態度保持不變，並以關係為導向，一如既往地關注市場選擇、我們接受的風險狀況和我們確定的適當估值。正如我們所說，重要的是達成交易，但要整合並交付成果以創造價值並保持低槓桿率以實現持續成長。

To that end, in spite of outlays of $2.2 billion, our leverage was virtually unaffected during 2024, ending the year at 2.67 times debt to EBITDA, a reflection of the quality of the revenue acquired and our ability to delever dynamically. That low leverage plus liquidity approaching $1 billion provides tremendous optionality for more of the same. That is continued funding of outsized acquisition activity and investment in sustainability-related projects, along with an increasing return of capital to shareholders.

為此，儘管支出了 22 億美元，但我們的槓桿率在 2024 年幾乎沒有受到影響，年底的債務與 EBITDA 之比為 2.67 倍，這反映了所獲得收入的質量和我們動態去槓桿的能力。低槓桿加上接近 10 億美元的流動性為更多此類操作提供了巨大的選擇空間。這就是持續為超大規模收購活動和永續發展相關項目提供資金支持，同時增加股東的資本回報。

And now I'd like to pass the call to Mary Anne to review more in depth the financial highlights of the fourth quarter and provide a detailed outlook for Q1 and full year 2025. I will then wrap up before we head into Q&A.

現在，我想將電話轉給瑪麗安，讓她更深入地回顧第四季度的財務亮點，並對 2025 年第一季和全年提供詳細展望。在我們進入問答環節之前，我將結束本次演講。

Thank you, Ron. In the fourth quarter, revenue of $2.26 billion was up $225 million or 11% year-over-year, bringing full year 2024 revenues to $8.92 billion, above our expectations and up 11.2% year-over-year. Acquisitions completed since the year ago period contributed about $169 million of revenue in Q4, net of divestitures, bringing full year net acquisition contribution to $529 million.

謝謝你，羅恩。第四季營收為 22.6 億美元，比去年同期增加 2.25 億美元或 11%，使得 2024 年全年營收達到 89.2 億美元，高於我們的預期，比去年同期增加 11.2%。自去年同期以來完成的收購在第四季度貢獻了約 1.69 億美元的收入（扣除資產剝離），使全年淨收購貢獻達到 5.29 億美元。

Core pricing in Q4 of 6.7% range from about 5% in our mostly exclusive market Western region to about 7% in our competitive markets. Fuel and material surcharges were negative 50 basis points in the quarter on lower fuel costs. Solid waste volumes in Q4 were down 2.7%, excluding 50 basis points negative volume impact at Chiquita, where we ramped down activity in advance of closing the site.

第四季的核心定價為 6.7%，範圍從我們主要獨家市場西部地區的 5% 左右到我們競爭市場的 7% 左右。由於燃料成本下降，本季燃料和材料附加費為負 50 個基點。第四季固體廢棄物量下降了 2.7%，其中不包括 Chiquita 的 50 個基點的負面數量影響，我們在關閉工廠之前減少了活動。

Elsewhere, volumes continue to reflect our focus on quality of revenue through shedding and a purposeful trade-off between price and volume, as well as the timing of special waste activity, some of which, as noted last quarter, was completed in Q3.

在其他方面，銷售量繼續反映出我們對收入品質的關注，透過削減成本和在價格與銷售之間進行有目的的權衡，以及特殊廢棄物處理活動的時機，其中一些如上個季度所述，已在第三季度完成。

Looking at year-over-year results in the fourth quarter on a same-store day adjusted basis. Roll-off pulls were down 4%. And total landfill pounds were about flat. Adjusting for Chiquita tonnes were up 3% year-over-year on MSW up 6%, special waste up 2% and C&D weights down about 6%. Over half of the MSW increase was attributable to storm cleanup activity in Florida, or the internalization of tonnes from our Northeast operations into our rail-served arrowhead landfill in Alabama.

從同店日調整後數據來看第四季的年比業績。滾降拉力下降了 4%。垃圾掩埋場總重量基本保持不變。經 Chiquita 調整後，垃圾重量較上年同期上漲 3%，其中城市固體廢棄物上漲 6%，特殊廢棄物上漲 2%，而建築廢棄物重量下降約 6%。超過一半的城市固體廢物增長歸因於佛羅裡達州的風暴清理活動，或來自我們東北部業務的數噸廢物被轉運到阿拉巴馬州的鐵路填埋場。

Adjusted EBITDA for Q4, as reconciled in our earnings release, was up 11.6% year-over-year to $732 million or 32.4% of revenue. As Ron noted, excluding the reduction in tonnes at Chiquita and the drop-off in commodity-driven revenues and FX rates during the quarter, adjusted EBITDA margin was over 33%.

根據我們的收益報告，第四季度的調整後 EBITDA 年成長 11.6% 至 7.32 億美元，佔營收的 32.4%。正如羅恩所指出的，除去奇基塔產量的減少以及本季大宗商品驅動收入和外匯匯率的下降，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率超過 33%。

Looking at the full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $2.902 billion was up 15% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA margin up 100 basis points to 32.5%. And as a reminder, that included a margin of 33.7% during Q3, our seasonally strongest quarter.

展望 2024 年全年，調整後 EBITDA 為 29.02 億美元，年增 15%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率上漲 100 個基點至 32.5%。需要提醒的是，第三季的利潤率為 33.7%，這是我們當季表現最強勁的季度。

Given our decision to close Chiquita Canyon landfill as of year-end, our Q4 results reflect our accounting for the related impacts. The write-down of $116.1 million in site costs plus an adjustment of $480.8 million to increase our closure and post closure liabilities. This amount includes a full forward of what we would describe as the customary outlays associated with landfill closure and post-closure obligations scheduled to occur over a 30-year period.

鑑於我們決定在年底關閉 Chiquita Canyon 垃圾掩埋場，我們的第四季業績反映了我們對相關影響的考慮。場地成本減記 1.161 億美元，加上調整 4.808 億美元，以增加我們的關閉和關閉後負債。這筆金額包括我們所描述的與垃圾掩埋場關閉以及計劃在 30 年內發生的關閉後義務相關的全部常規支出。

It also reflects an update to projections for outlays to address the ETLF event, which totalled $224 million in 2024 and are expected to step down in subsequent periods to about $100 million to $150 million in '25 and down to about $50 million in 2026.

它還反映了對因應 ETFL 事件支出預測的更新，該支出在 2024 年總計 2.24 億美元，預計在隨後的時期將逐步下降至 2025 年的約 1 億至 1.5 億美元，到 2026 年將下降至約 5,000 萬美元。

Total 2024 outlays outpaced original expectations, primarily as a result of related regulatory, permitting, legal, consulting and other indirect costs that were outside of the original scope, as well as incremental requirements driving up the direct costs associated with leachate treatment. We continue to pursue strategies to mitigate these impacts and the related costs.

2024 年的總支出超過了最初的預期，主要是因為相關的監管、許可、法律、諮詢和其他間接成本超出了原來的範圍，以及增量要求推高了與滲濾液處理相關的直接成本。我們將繼續推行策略來減輕這些影響和相關成本。

In spite of those incremental outlays, our 2024 adjusted free cash flow of $1.218 billion exceeded our expectations. Capital expenditures of $1.056 billion reflect ordinary course CapEx in line with expectations and slower-than-expected RNG project spend, totalling about $60 million.

儘管支出有所增加，但我們 2024 年調整後的自由現金流達到 12.18 億美元，超出了我們的預期。10.56 億美元的資本支出反映了符合預期的正常資本支出和低於預期的 RNG 項目支出，總計約 6,000 萬美元。

As discussed on prior calls, our sustainability-related projects include about a dozen R&D facilities with a variety of ownership structures. We continue to expect projects to be online by 2026 and expect aggregate capital outlays to approach $250 million before any benefit from investment tax credits. While RIN values will drive the payback period, our hybrid ownership approach insulates us from volatility on about half the economics of these projects.

正如先前的電話會議所討論的那樣，我們的永續發展相關項目包括大約十幾個具有各種所有權結構的研發設施。我們繼續預計該項目將在 2026 年上線，並預計在獲得投資稅收抵免之前總資本支出將接近 2.5 億美元。雖然 RIN 值將決定投資回收期，但我們的混合所有權方法使我們免受這些項目約一半經濟效益波動的影響。

R&D capital expenditures, $100 million to $150 million have been factored into our 2025 outlook, which I will now review along with our outlook for Q1 2025. Before I do, we'd like to remind everyone once again that actual results may vary significantly based on risks and uncertainties outlined in our safe harbor statement and filings we've made with the SEC and the securities commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada.

1 億至 1.5 億美元的研發資本支出已計入我們的 2025 年展望，我現在將與其一起回顧 2025 年第一季的展望。在此之前，我們想再次提醒大家，實際結果可能會因我們的安全港聲明和我們向美國證券交易委員會、加拿大證券委員會或類似監管機構提交的文件中概述的風險和不確定性而有很大差異。

We encourage investors to review these factors carefully. Our outlook assumes no change in the current economic environment. Beyond the noted signed deals, our outlook also excludes any impact from additional acquisitions that may close during the remainder of the year and expensing of transaction-related items during the period.

我們鼓勵投資者仔細審查這些因素。我們的展望假設當前經濟環境不會改變。除了已簽署的交易之外，我們的展望還排除了可能在今年剩餘時間內完成的額外收購以及期間交易相關項目的費用的影響。

Looking first at the full year 2025. Revenue in 2025 is estimated in the range of $9.45 billion to $9.6 billion. For solid waste, we expect price plus volume in the range of 4% to 5%, excluding about 0.5 point volume impact from closing Chiquita, which, by the way, is how we'll communicate organic growth in 2025.

首先展望 2025 年全年。預計 2025 年營收在 94.5 億美元至 96 億美元之間。對於固體廢物，我們預計價格加上銷量將在 4% 到 5% 之間，不包括關閉 Chiquita 帶來的約 0.5 個百分點的銷量影響，順便說一句，這就是我們在 2025 年實現有機增長的方式。

On pricing up about 6%. Acquisition revenue contribution of about 3.5% includes deals signed and expected to close during Q2. As the range of outcomes includes the potential for some recovery in commodity values and FX rates from recent levels.

價格上漲約 6%。收購收入貢獻約為 3.5%，其中包括已簽署並預計第二季完成的交易。由於一系列結果包括商品價值和外匯匯率可能從近期水準回升。

On that basis, adjusted EBITDA in 2025 is reconciled in our earnings release, is expected in the range of $3.12 billion to $3.2 billion or adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 33% to 33.3%, up 50 basis points to 80 basis points year-over-year.

在此基礎上，2025 年的調整後 EBITDA 已在我們的收益報告中進行了調整，預計在 31.2 億美元至 32 億美元之間，或調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在 33% 至 33.3% 之間，較上年同期上升 50 個基點至 80 個基點。

This positions us for peak quarterly margin in excess of 34% and consistent with what we've discussed in prior periods, in spite of lower commodity values, RINs and FX rates. Incremental acquisition activity and further improvements in commodity-driven revenues would provide upside to our 2025 outlook.

儘管商品價值、RIN 和外匯匯率較低，這使我們的季度利潤率高峰達到 34% 以上，與我們在前期討論的情況一致。不斷增加的收購活動和大宗商品驅動收入的進一步提高將為我們的 2025 年前景帶來上行空間。

Adjusted free cash flow in 2025 is also reconciled in our earnings release, is expected in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.35 billion. Estimated CapEx of $1.2 billion to $1.225 billion includes $100 million to $150 million for RNG projects. And our adjusted free cash flow outlook also reflects $100 million to $150 million for outlays associated with the Chiquita Canyon ETLF.

2025 年的調整後自由現金流也已在我們的收益報告中進行了調整，預計在 13 億美元至 13.5 億美元之間。預計資本支出為 12 億至 12.25 億美元，其中包括用於 RNG 項目的 1 億至 1.5 億美元。我們調整後的自由現金流前景也反映出與 Chiquita Canyon ETFL 相關的支出為 1 億至 1.5 億美元。

Adjusting for these discrete items, 2025 adjusted free cash flow of over $1.55 billion is indicative of the jumping off point for growth going into '26 when we expect to revert to our more normalized conversion rate of 48% to 50% of adjusted EBITDA or more.

在調整這些單項項目後，2025 年調整後的自由現金流將超過 15.5 億美元，這表明我們將在 26 年實現增長，屆時我們預計轉換率將恢復到更正常的狀態，即調整後 EBITDA 的 48% 至 50% 或更高。

Turning now to our outlook for Q1 2025. Revenue in Q1 is estimated in the range of $2.2 billion to $2.225 billion, and adjusted EBITDA is estimated at $700 million to $710 million or 31.8% to 31.9% of revenue. Depreciation and amortization for the first quarter is estimated to be about 13.4% of revenue, including amortization of intangibles of about $48 million or about $0.13 per diluted share net of taxes. Q1 interest expense net of interest income is estimated at about $80 million, and the tax rate for the first quarter is estimated at approximately 23%.

現在來談談我們對 2025 年第一季的展望。預計第一季營收在 22 億美元至 22.25 億美元之間，調整後 EBITDA 預計在 7 億美元至 7.1 億美元之間，佔營收的 31.8% 至 31.9%。第一季的折舊和攤銷預計約佔收入的 13.4%，其中包括約 4,800 萬美元的無形資產攤銷或約 0.13 美元的稅後每股攤薄收益。Q1利息支出減去利息收入預計約8,000萬美元，第一季稅率預計約為23%。

And now let me turn the call back over to Ron for some final remarks before Q&A.

現在，讓我將電話轉回給羅恩，讓他在問答之前發表一些最後的評論。

Okay. Thank you, Mary Anne. Coming into 2024, we emphasized the interconnectivity of relationships and results, and our performance reflects the importance of both with financial excellence and record acquisition activity supported by notable improvement in operational statistics and employee engagement. Even more importantly, they positioned us for continued outsized growth in 2025. In fact, we believe we're better positioned than ever.

好的。謝謝你，瑪麗安妮。進入 2024 年，我們強調關係和結果的互聯互通，我們的業績體現了兩者的重要性，財務卓越和創紀錄的收購活動得到了營運統計數據和員工敬業度顯著改善的支持。更重要的是，他們為我們在 2025 年繼續實現超高速成長做好了準備。事實上，我們相信我們的地位比以往任何時候都要好。

In 2025, we're focused on delivering excellence with humility. We're sticking to a model that has served us well for over 27 years and which guides us as we grow to revenue of $10 billion and more, while acknowledging the benefits of innovation and new ideas to ensure that the company is well positioned for the future.

2025 年，我們將致力於以謙遜的態度實現卓越。我們堅持一個已經為我們服務了 27 年以上的模式，這個模式引導著我們的收入成長到 100 億美元甚至更多，同時承認創新和新想法的好處，確保公司為未來做好準備。

Along these lines, we're excited to be working with partners to provide solutions for PFAS treatment and expand renewable natural gas generation in our landfills. We're introducing electric trucks as we build out our newest franchise market, New York City, and we're further digitizing the employee and customer experience to bring people closer together through technology.

沿著這個思路，我們很高興能與合作夥伴共同努力，為 PFAS 處理提供解決方案，並擴大垃圾掩埋場的再生天然氣發電。我們正在拓展最新的特許經營市場紐約市，並推出電動卡車，並進一步數位化員工和客戶體驗，透過科技拉近人們之間的距離。

We are already seeing the benefits of the use of AI, higher productivity and output quality from robotics in our recycling facilities, improved safety outcomes and routing efficiencies across our fleet along with opportunities to drive sales and augment revenue quality, just to name a few of the applications.

我們已經看到了使用人工智慧的好處，回收設施中機器人的更高生產力和產出品質、整個車隊的安全結果和路線效率的提高，以及推動銷售和提高收入品質的機會，這些只是其中的一些應用。

We'll always maintain a human center design to inform and direct our approach to the use of technology, but we'll also focus on opportunities to leverage and maximize the utility of our resources. We're also humbled by the trust of many stakeholders from the communities we have the privilege to serve to the private sellers entrusting us with their legacy, and we're most grateful for the dedication of our 24,000 employees who embody the enduring values of Waste Connections and whose efforts truly set us apart.

我們將始終保持以人為本的設計來指導和指導我們使用科技的方法，但我們也將專注於利用和最大化我們資源效用的機會。我們也對眾多利害關係人的信任深感謙卑，從我們有幸服務的社區到將他們的遺產託付給我們的私人賣家，我們最感激的是我們 24,000 名員工的奉獻精神，他們體現了 Waste Connections 的持久價值觀，他們的努力使我們真正與眾不同。

We appreciate your time today. I will now turn this call over to the operator to open up the lines for your questions. Operator?

感謝您今天抽出時間。我現在將把此電話轉給接線員，以便解答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Tyler Brown, Raymond James.

泰勒布朗、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，大家早安。

Good morning, Tyler.

早安，泰勒。

Hey, lots of good detail as usual. But can we go back over some of the moving pieces on cash flow? Maybe can we start with green CapEx? I just want to make sure that I've got it. So I think in '23, you spent maybe $40 million. It sounds like in '24, you spent $60 million. That's going to step up to about $125 million at the midpoint in '25. Is all that basically right? And then based on what we know, shouldn't that basically sunset and that will be more or less done in '26?

嘿，像往常一樣，有很多很好的細節。但我們能回顧一下現金流的一些變動因素嗎？也許我們可以從綠色資本支出開始？我只是想確保我已收到它。所以我認為在23年你可能花了4000萬美元。聽起來，在 24 年，你花了 6000 萬美元。到 25 年中期，這一數字將增加至約 1.25 億美元。這一切基本上都是正確的嗎？那麼根據我們所知，這難道不應該基本上落幕嗎？

Yes, you're correct. Everything you said we'd agree with the bulk of the spending will get done in '25. As you said, we've had those outlays all ready and will basically be done by '26. What's unknown would be the benefits from incremental tax credits. And so to the extent there's any good news there that would just make the net impact smaller.

是的，你說得對。您所說的一切我們同意，大部分支出將在25年完成。正如你所說，我們已經準備好了這些支出，基本上會在26年完成。尚不清楚增量稅收抵免會帶來什麼好處。因此，如果有任何好消息的話，那隻會使淨影響變小。

Okay. And then the EBITDA contribution, that kind of really ramps in '26 and '27.

好的。然後是 EBITDA 貢獻，在 26 年和 27 年確實有所增加。

That's right. As we've said to this point, there's just been nominal increases from the facilities that have come online. The bulk of them will be online during '26, and so you'll see it ramp during '26 for the full year in '27. And we said that's around $200 million in incremental EBITDA. So the revenue is north of that, but it's very high flow-through and, of course, very high conversion of EBITDA to free cash flow.

這是正確的。正如我們剛才所說的那樣，新上線的設施僅帶來了名義上的成長。其中大部分將在26年上線，因此你會看到它在26年和27年全年呈上升趨勢。我們說增量 EBITDA 約為 2 億美元。因此，收入高於這一水平，但流通量非常高，當然，EBITDA 轉化為自由現金流的轉換率也非常高。

Right. Okay. Perfect. And then on Chiquita again, just to kind of make sure I've got all this. So I think, again, you spent $23 million in '23. It sounds like you had a really large spend in '24 at $224 million. That number steps down and call it to [$125], and then it steps down again in '26. And then by the time we get to '27, that should be kind of zeroed out. Is that about right?

正確的。好的。完美的。然後再次去 Chiquita，只是為了確保我已經得到所有這些。因此我認為，你在 23 年又花了 2300 萬美元。聽起來你在 24 年的花費確實很大，達到了 2.24 億美元。這個數字逐漸下降，達到 [125 美元]，然後在 26 年再次下降。然後，當我們到達 27 時，這個數字就應該歸零了。那是對的嗎？

Yes, Tyler, I don't know if it will be 0, but it should be in that 0 to $15 million to $20 million range is what we believe by then sort of just a maintenance level at most. It could be 0, but I would say 0 to $20 million.

是的，泰勒，我不知道它是否會是 0，但它應該在 0 到 1500 萬美元到 2000 萬美元的範圍內，我們認為到那時最多只是維持水平。可能是 0，但我會說 0 到 2000 萬美元。

Okay. But big picture, I mean, as we build through the end of this decade, I mean the free cash conversion on a reported basis will materially step up. And that -- I think you said $48 million to 50 million, maybe in '26, I think, is what you said on a normalized basis, but that's not even including the benefits of the high flow-through RNG. So I mean it could be pretty good as we get to '27. I know --

好的。但從總體來看，我的意思是，隨著我們進入本世紀末，報告基礎上的自由現金轉換將大幅增加。而且 — — 我認為您說過 4800 萬美元到 5000 萬美元，也許在 26 年，我想，這是您所說的正常化基礎，但這甚至不包括高流通 RNG 的好處。所以我的意思是，當我們到達 27 歲時，情況可能會相當不錯。我知道--

Yes. That's why we said this year, if you take what we've guided and you assume we didn't do RNG or have Chiquita, which you can't do. I understand, it would be $1.55 billion would be the 25% free cash flow or right at about 50% for -- and that is before RNG EBITDA contribution, as you just outlined.

是的。這就是為什麼我們今年說，如果你接受我們的指導並假設我們沒有做 RNG 或沒有 Chiquita，那是你做不到的。我的理解是，15.5 億美元將是 25% 的自由現金流，或大約 50%——這是在 RNG EBITDA 貢獻之前，正如您剛才概述的那樣。

Right. Okay. Last one here. I continue to get a lot of questions around volume. It sounds-like 25%, even if I kind of take away Chiquita, it's going to be maybe the fourth year in a row of down volume. Can you just kind of help us, Ron, think about that? Could that go positive into '26? Is there still some intentional shedding? Do we just need a better industrial backdrop or a better housing backdrop to get there? Just any big picture thoughts on that. I get a lot of questions on that. Thanks, guys.

正確的。好的。這裡是最後一個。我繼續收到很多有關音量的問題。聽起來像是 25%，即使我將 Chiquita 除去，這也可能是連續第四年銷售下降。羅恩，你能幫我們考慮一下嗎？這能對 26 年產生正面影響嗎？是否還存在一些故意脫落的情況？我們是否只需要更好的工業背景或更好的住房背景來實現這一目標？只是對此有任何宏觀想法。我對此有很多疑問。謝謝大家。

Sure. Tyler, first off, what I would point out that for analysts and investors, you have to understand that not all companies report volumes similarly. And that doesn't mean any way is right or wrong. They're just -- you can't really compare them to each other. We only report solid waste in our volume.

當然。泰勒，首先，我想指出的是，對於分析師和投資者來說，你們必須明白，並非所有公司報告的交易量都相同。但這並不意味著任何方式都是正確或錯誤的。它們只是——你無法真正將它們相互比較。我們僅報告固體廢物。

We don't report changes in recycling and other business lines that we don't view as core or significant, but influence the volume reported. So ours is just solid waste. So let's start with that, number one. Number two, we had a record year of M&A in '24. We think that's a good thing. We would love to have and plan to have a very strong year again in '25. Again, that's a good thing.

我們不會報告回收和其他我們認為不是核心或重要但會影響報告數量的業務線的變化。所以我們的只是固體廢物。那我們就從第一點開始吧。第二，2024年是我們的併購交易創紀錄的一年。我們認為這是一件好事。我們希望並計劃在 2025 年再次取得強勁業績。再說一遍，這是一件好事。

But as we have said, maybe 10% to up to 15% of the M&A revenue you acquire, you look to shed over a one year to three year period as contracts come up that are unprofitable. So again, like we say, follow the margin, not volume because we are purposely shedding volume and redeploying capital into more profitable contracts we can bid.

但正如我們所說的，在一年到三年的時間裡，您可能會因為無利可圖的合約而損失掉所獲得的併購收入的 10% 到 15%。因此，就像我們說的，要遵循保證金，而不是交易量，因為我們有意減少交易量，並將資本重新部署到我們可以競標的更有利可圖的合約中。

So for shedding to stop, M&A would have to decelerate dramatically. And we don't view that as something we're looking to do or see happening. The other thing we have said is that look, there's somewhere probably between 0.5 and maybe up to a 1% conscious trade-off between price and volume.

因此，為了停止流失，併購活動必須大幅減速。我們並不認為這是我們想要做或希望發生的事情。我們說過的另一件事是，價格和數量之間可能存在 0.5% 到 1% 之間的有意識權衡。

Again, others are talking about achieving 4%, 4.5% yield, which is really our price. And we're achieving -- have guided today to 6% plus price. That's yield, okay? So very material difference in the pricing achieved. That comes along with some trade-off.

再者，其他人正在談論實現 4%、4.5% 的收益率，這實際上是我們的價格。我們已實現 — — 今天已將價格預期提高至 6% 以上。這就是收益，好嗎？因此，定價方面存在很大差異。這會帶來一些權衡。

We think in this environment that, that trade-off is very necessary as it was in '23 and '24. While inflation is certainly coming down as we've recently seen, it's not fully down yet. And so we always focus on having a 150 basis points to 200 basis points spread, not necessarily to the CPI, but to what we see our cost structure doing. And so that's where we focus on price.

我們認為，在這種環境下，這種權衡是非常必要的，就像 23 年和 24 年一樣。儘管正如我們最近所看到的，通貨膨脹確實在下降，但尚未完全下降。因此，我們始終關注 150 個基點到 200 個基點的利差，不一定是 CPI，而是我們的成本結構的表現。這就是我們關注價格的地方。

So it's a long way around the barn to say it's conscious between purposeful shedding. It's conscious between of the trade-off of price volume. And then it's also that we just report solid ways in our volume calc. And so in that, we have been in basically a flat to almost negative economic environment for 2.5 full years now, really since the beginning of '22 in our numbers.

因此，說它是有意識地進行有目的的脫落，這還有很長的路要走。這是價格與數量之間權衡的意識。然後我們也只在體積計算中報告實體方法。因此，從我們的數據來看，從 22 年初開始，我們基本上已經處於持平甚至幾乎為負面的經濟環境中長達 2.5 年。

You bounce around between 0 and 1% or 2% MSW growth. I think that reflects -- and in C&D and special waste, which are tied to construction event activity bounce around between negative 10% and positive 10% in any given quarter. Of course, they are a smaller piece of things. So yes, there is a little bit of a need for improved economic activity, which we are optimistic is coming, but we have not yet seen that.

都市固體廢棄物成長率在 0 到 1% 或 2% 之間波動。我認為這反映了——在與建築活動相關的 C&D 和特殊廢物中，任何一個季度的成長都在負 10% 和正 10% 之間波動。當然，它們只是一小部分。所以是的，經濟活動確實需要改善，我們樂觀地認為這種情況很快就會發生，但我們還沒有看到這一點。

Okay. Thank you so much, Ron.

好的。非常感謝，羅恩。

Kevin Chiang, CIBC.

加拿大帝國商業銀行 (CIBC) 的 Kevin Chiang。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Maybe I'll start off with you, congrats on a lot of the efforts here on turnover and some of the posting numbers you supply. I guess on the back of record M&A, I guess any color on what you're seeing from an employee retention or turnover perspective in the acquired businesses, just given the record amount of deal flow you've seen over the past -- or last year and even the past few years here?

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。也許我應該從您開始，祝賀您在營業額方面所做的大量努力以及您提供的一些發布數字。我想，在創紀錄的併購交易背後，考慮到過去（或去年，甚至過去幾年）創紀錄的交易量，我想您能從被收購企業的員工保留或流動率角度來看待這個問題嗎？

Yes, Kevin, I mean I think as we've -- I think that's a very good question, particularly with someone who's active as we are. Look, -- and that's something we're very pleased with, to achieve under one voluntary turnover number, you have to understand that it is significantly higher in acquired M&A companies. It is not uncommon for that in the first year to be in that 30% to 35% level because of our really rigorous safety standard.

是的，凱文，我的意思是，我認為我們已經——我認為這是一個非常好的問題，特別是對於像我們這樣活躍的人來說。瞧，這是我們非常高興的事情，為了實現低於一個自願離職率的數字，你必須明白，在被收購的併購公司中，這個數字要高得多。由於我們的安全標準非常嚴格，第一年的比例達到 30% 到 35% 是很常見的。

And many tenured employees coming through private companies on the front line, that's a very hard adjustment for them behaviorally to make. So that's captured even in that. So it tells you our core company number is even lower. So we focus very heavily on safety. It is not uncommon for us to drop the safety incident rate on an acquired stand-alone private company by 3x in the first 12 months. But that doesn't -- but that does come along with having to make some frontline and supervision level changes at acquired companies.

對於許多在私人公司擔任第一線工作的長期員工來說，這是一個很難的行為調整。甚至在那之中這也被捕獲了。所以這告訴你我們的核心公司數字甚至更低。因此，我們非常重視安全。在前 12 個月內，我們將收購的獨立私人公司的安全事故率降低 3 倍的情況並不少見。但事實並非如此——但這確實伴隨著被收購公司必須做出一些一線和監督層面的變革。

That's great color. Maybe just turning to your margin outlook, sorry, 50 basis points to 80 basis points of margin expansion. Is there a way to think about what, I guess, R360 Canada might be contributing to that because you have a full year secure. And I think you're evaluating opening up some facilities there. Just is that one of the, I guess, foundational pieces to driving that outsized margin expansion in 2025?

顏色真棒。也許只是轉向您的利潤率前景，抱歉，利潤率擴大 50 個基點到 80 個基點。有沒有辦法想想，我猜，R360 加拿大可能對此有所貢獻，因為您有整整一年的安全保障。我認為您正在評估在那裡開設一些設施。我猜，這是否是推動 2025 年獲利大幅擴張的基礎因素之一？

So Kevin, really, it's the strength of the underlying business is what's driving the outsized margin expansion are enjoying the benefits of a terrific acquisition of Secure. But as you'll recall, we had 11 months of it last year. So the rollover contribution is just one month.

因此，凱文，實際上，基礎業務的實力才是推動超額利潤擴張的動力，並且正在享受對 Secure 的出色收購帶來的好處。但您可能還記得，去年我們已經有 11 個月了。因此展期繳款僅一個月。

And yes, as we've said, the performance there has resulted in incremental activity and looking at opening mothballed facilities. But to the extent that were to contribute, it would be very late in the year and nominal. So really going back to the 50 basis points to 80 basis points of margin expansion is in spite of the drag from commodities RINs and FX, which think of that as down 20 basis points to 50 basis points, so it implies underlying margins up as much as 100 basis points.

是的，正如我們所說的，那裡的表現已經導致了活動的增加，並且正在考慮開放閒置的設施。但就其貢獻程度而言，這已經是年底的事情了，而且意義不大。因此，儘管受到大宗商品 RIN 和外匯的拖累，利潤率仍真正回到 50 個基點至 80 個基點的擴張水平，這被認為是下降 20 個基點至 50 個基點，因此它意味著基礎利潤率上升了 100 個基點。

And again, that really speaks to all the things that Ron outlined that are working for us in the underlying business. And yes, we're enjoying the benefits of a very solid E&P waste business, but not a huge driver of incremental margins in '25.

再說一遍，這確實說明了羅恩所概述的所有對我們基礎業務有益的事情。是的，我們正在享受非常穩固的 E&P 廢棄物業務的好處，但這並不是 25 年增量利潤的巨大驅動力。

Okay. That's very helpful. And maybe just last one for me. You noted how your leverage ratio really going to change despite the record M&A and you have incremental growth CapEx, which starts to roll off in the next couple of years. I guess when you look forward, how does buybacks, I guess, play a role in your free cash flow allocation?

好的。這非常有幫助。對我來說這也許只是最後一次了。您指出，儘管併購交易額創下了歷史新高，但您的槓桿率實際上將會發生怎樣的變化，並且您的資本支出將呈現增量增長，並將在未來幾年內開始下滑。我想，當你展望未來時，回購在你的自由現金流分配中會扮演什麼角色？

I mean it seems like you could probably add that to your -- or be more aggressive there, just given where your balance sheet is and your free cash flow generation and the fact that you've been on the back of a record year your leverage by to move that much. I'm just wondering if that's something that can contemplate, especially as free cash flow just start to step up even more in the next kind of 12 months to 18 months.

我的意思是，看起來你可能會把它加到你的——或者更積極地進行，只要考慮到你的資產負債表的情況和你的自由現金流產生，以及你在創紀錄的一年裡你的槓桿率可以移動這麼多的事實。我只是想知道這是否可以考慮，特別是當自由現金流在未來 12 個月到 18 個月內開始進一步增加時。

But we absolutely agree, Kevin. And the beauty of the -- sitting at 267 with, as we said, we're approaching $1 billion in liquidity is we have tremendous optionality. I mean to put it all in context, you've seen us continue to grow our dividend as we have every year, double digits and a 14% CAGR over the last 15 years. And you've seen us renew our NCIB, that normal cost issuer bid. So we have the flexibility to buy back up to 5% to preserve that optionality.

但我們完全同意，凱文。而美妙之處在於——正如我們所說，我們的流動性接近 10 億美元，市值達到 267 億美元，我們擁有巨大的選擇空間。我的意思是，把所有情況都放在一起，您會看到我們的股息像每年一樣持續增長，在過去 15 年中，我們的股息增長率達到兩位數，複合年增長率為 14％。並且您已經看到我們更新了 NCIB，即正常成本發行人出價。因此，我們可以靈活地回購高達 5% 的股份以保留這種可選性。

We always say at some point, M&A slows down, but I think to your point, M&A doesn't even need to slow down. us to use that other sort of arrow in the quiver, and we agree with you and opportunistically, that is something we'll look at.

我們總是說，在某個時候，併購會放緩，但我認為，正如你所說，併購甚至不需要放緩。我們使用箭筒中的另一種箭，我們同意你的觀點，並且從機會主義的角度來看，這是我們會考慮的事情。

Excellent. (inaudible) Congrats on a good quarter here, and that's all I've for 2025.

出色的。（聽不清楚）恭喜您本季取得了良好的業績，這就是我對 2025 年的全部期望。

Thank you, Kevin.

謝謝你，凱文。

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

Thank you so much. Wanted to first ask on price. We've seen core price continue to moderate over the past few quarters, but still like holding up very nicely, where do you see price bottoming out? And what are you thinking for trajectory into 2025 in terms of how that looks? Thanks.

太感謝了。想先問問價格。我們看到核心價格在過去幾季中持續走低，但仍然保持良好勢頭，您認為價格在哪裡觸底？您認為 2025 年的發展軌跡是如何的？謝謝。

Sure. So the way to think about price, we said about 6% is the way to think about price. Of course, you have the two pieces where you've got the CPI-linked markets, which were in 2024, we're about 5%. And those step down to about 4%.

當然。因此，考慮價格的方式，我們說大約 6% 是考慮價格的方式。當然，有兩個與 CPI 掛鉤的市場，到 2024 年，我們的成長率約為 5%。這些比例逐漸下降至4%左右。

And of course, that what CPI does will inform how that proceeds going forward. So whatever your view is of that. But for '25, that's a good placeholder. And so then that implies 7%, 7.5% and in the competitive markets to deliver that 6% or north of it.

當然，CPI 的做法將決定未來的進展。所以無論您對此有何看法。但對於’25來說，這是一個很好的佔位符。因此，這意味著在競爭激烈的市場中，要達到 7%、7.5% 的成長率，甚至達到 6% 或更高的成長率。

In terms of the cadence, you should expect sort of our typical cadence where on a reported basis, it would start higher than that and move down over the course of the year, just the math of it. And also as is pretty typical for us, we the majority of our price increases in the competitive markets early in the year.

就節奏而言，你應該預料到我們的典型節奏，根據報告，一開始它會高於這個節奏，然後在一年內逐漸下降，這只是數學計算而已。而且，對我們來說相當典型的是，我們的大部分價格上漲都是在年初的競爭市場中進行的。

And so by the time we report Q1, a couple of months from now, be able to speak about the visibility we have really for the full year because this year is really unlike any other, where we'll have 70%, 75% of the price increases either known because we're contractually -- they're provided we know what the numbers are or implement it and we'll have a sense of rollback.

因此，到幾個月後我們報告第一季業績時，我們就能夠談論全年的可見性，因為今年確實與往年不同，我們將有 70% 到 75% 的價格上漲，這些上漲要么是已知的，因為我們是根據合同規定的 - 我們知道這些數字是多少，要么實施它，我們會有一種回滾的感覺。

Early reads are that pricing retention is as strong as usual. And again, I referenced the things that Ron raised about the strength of the underlying business and the benefits of full employment, if you will, and lower turnover to help with price retention.

早期數據顯示，價格保留與往常一樣強勁。我再次引用了羅恩提出的關於基礎業務實力和充分就業的好處以及較低的營業額有助於維持價格的觀點。

Great. And Ron, you mentioned working with partners on solutions for PFAS treatment. Just wanted to hear the latest on the topic and what you're doing there.

偉大的。羅恩，您提到與合作夥伴共同研究 PFAS 治療解決方案。只是想聽聽關於這個話題的最新動態以及你在那裡做什麼。

Well, we're doing a number of things, Toni. There are -- I would tell you there's probably no less than half a dozen providers that have real solutions. Most of it is a foam fractionation process that treats and by basically gathering the PFAS and then solidifying it. And then that is disposed of separately.

嗯，我們正在做很多事情，東尼。有—我想告訴你，可能至少有六家供應商有真正的解決方案。其中大部分是泡沫分餾過程，透過基本上收集 PFAS 然後將其固化來進行處理。然後將其單獨處理。

And so these are both portable and permanent treatment facilities that are built or moved on site. And depending on the amount of leachate that a landfill generates, we are running it through that. We have -- we are using different technologies at different sites to determine which we think performs best. We have them performing in Minnesota, in Pennsylvania, in New York, as examples and other places.

這些都是在現場建造或移動的便攜式和永久性處理設施。根據垃圾掩埋場產生的滲濾液量，我們會對其進行處理。我們在不同的站點使用不同的技術來確定我們認為哪種技術效果最好。我們讓他們到明尼蘇達州、賓州、紐約州以及其他地方表演，作為示範。

And the early results are very, very good, a reasonable capital allocation for the benefit and a very low cost per gallon treatment costs overall. As you may know, many of the POTWs in the nation are looking to require some form of pre-treatment for PFAS if they're going to continue to accept landfill leachate.

而且早期結果非常非常好，資本配置合理，整體而言每加侖處理成本非常低。您可能知道，如果全國許多 POTW 要繼續接收垃圾掩埋場滲濾液，他們都需要對 PFAS 進行某種形式的預處理。

So where we are treating it, we are not having any issues of getting into POTW. So it is working as planned. So I would tell you that I think there's a very real and reasonably economical solutions available today, which we believe will continue to improve over time.

因此，當我們對其進行處理時，不會遇到任何進入 POTW 的問題。因此一切正在按計劃進行。所以我想告訴你，我認為今天已經有一個非常現實且合理經濟的解決方案，我們相信這些解決方案會隨著時間的推移而不斷改進。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Bryan Burgmeier, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Bryan Burgmeier。

Good morning. Thank you for taking the question. Mary Anne, sorry if I missed this in Tyler's question. How much did RNG contribute to EBITDA in 2024? And then what do you assume for 2025 guidance? And then is there going to be maybe an opportunity to lock in RIN prices or do we expect to be using the spot market this year?

早安.感謝您回答這個問題。瑪麗安，如果我沒有回答泰勒的問題，我很抱歉。2024 年 RNG 對 EBITDA 的貢獻是多少？那麼您對 2025 年的指導意見是什麼？那麼是否可能有機會鎖定 RIN 價格，或者我們預計今年將使用現貨市場？

Sure. So landfill gas sales and the incremental contribution from facilities that came online really didn't change dramatically. We're still running at that point to 1.5 point of revenue or $100 million or around there, $100 million, $110 million.

當然。因此，垃圾掩埋氣銷售和上線設施的增量貢獻實際上並沒有發生巨大變化。我們仍計劃將營收提高到 1.5 個點，也就是 1 億美元左右，1 億美元、1.1 億美元左右。

There was some nominal incremental contribution in '24. And basically, that's the way you should think about it in '25. The real pickup for us is one of the facilities that we own come online in given the fact that we have this hybrid structure. So -- and I'm sorry, you had a second piece.

'24 年有一些名義上的增量貢獻。基本上，這就是你在 25 年時應該思考這個問題的方式。考慮到我們擁有這種混合結構，對我們來說真正的好處是我們擁有的其中一個設施能夠上線。所以 — — 很抱歉，你還有第二件。

And you asked we could lock. Yes. Sorry about that. look, we will opportunistically look to lock as we have. We had a portion of our RINs locked for most of 2024 at around $3. And when those opportunities present themselves, you should expect that we'll look to continue to derisk that aspect of the business as and when we can.

你問我們是否可以鎖。是的。很抱歉。瞧，我們將會抓住機會，像我們已經鎖定的那樣。我們將部分 RIN 在 2024 年的大部分時間內鎖定在 3 美元左右。當這些機會出現時，你應該預期我們會盡可能地繼續降低業務這一方面的風險。

Got it. Got it. And then, Ron, maybe just on M&A, the 2024 spending, obviously, Blue pass the kind of normalized target that Waste Connections provides and you've been in this business a long time. So I'm just curious if you think there's maybe greater urgency for sellers right now versus the last 5 years or 10 years? Do you think maybe persistently high interest rates are deferring some of the smaller players? Just curious maybe what drove the outsized selling in '24 and your thoughts on '25? Thank you, and I'll turn it over.

知道了。知道了。然後，羅恩，也許只是在併購方面，2024 年的支出，顯然，藍色通過了 Waste Connections 提供的那種標準化目標，而且你在這個行業已經很長時間了。所以我只是好奇，您是否認為與過去 5 年或 10 年相比，現在賣家的緊迫感可能更大？您是否認為持續的高利率可能會阻礙一些小型企業的參與？只是好奇是什麼導致了 24 年的大規模拋售以及您對 25 年的看法？謝謝您，我會轉交給您的。

Sure. Thanks, Bryan. Well, as we've always said, there are -- at least certainly in our model, 7 or 8 out of every 10 deals are driven by sort of linear transition, estate planning matters that that happened in the natural course of the private ownership of family run companies. And so in that regard, external catalysts don't move things too much.

當然。謝謝，布萊恩。嗯，正如我們一直所說的那樣，至少在我們的模型中，每 10 筆交易中就有 7 到 8 筆是由某種線性過渡驅動的，遺產規劃問題在家族企業的私有製自然過程中發生。因此從這個方面來看，外部催化劑不會對事情產生太大的影響。

Now having said that, certainly, the trajectory of interest rates over the last few years have helped private companies who have a lot of sort of floating rate or lease rate debt are more impacted with rising interest rates than certainly the public companies. And so that affects them.

話雖如此，但過去幾年的利率走勢確實幫助了那些擁有大量浮動利率或租賃利率債務的私人公司，使其受到的利率上升的影響比上市公司更大。這對他們有影響。

I think the fear at least of what election outcomes are and the threat of rising tax rates I think certainly affects things. That probably is maybe at least for a period of time, a little more stable right now than it had been in the run-up to the election, depending on the outcome. So that, I would say, is neutral. Certainly, economic activity. Sellers want -- private sellers want to sell their business when the economy is strong, and they believe their business is fully valued.

我認為，至少對選舉結果的擔憂以及稅率上升的威脅肯定會對事情產生影響。這可能至少在一段時間內會比選舉前夕更穩定一些，這取決於選舉結果。因此，我想說，這是中立的。當然是經濟活動。賣家希望——私人賣家希望在經濟強勁時出售他們的業務，並且他們相信他們的業務得到了充分的估值。

And so I'd say, again, that has sort of been neutral to negative. So as the economy, if and when the economy continues to improve, I think that is a bit of an accelerant for M&A. And then you have a group of sellers who, after living through a pandemic and hyperinflation just sort of said, yes, I don't want to do that anymore going forward. Those are risks I never thought I'd see.

因此我想說，這種影響再次呈現中性到負面的趨勢。因此，如果經濟持續改善，我認為這對併購來說將是一個加速器。然後，你會看到一群賣家在經歷了疫情和惡性通貨膨脹之後，就說，是的，我以後不想再這樣做了。我從未想過會看到這些風險。

So again, that one is a little harder to predict. But I would tell you, we remain in, I would consider a very good M&A market. Our pipeline is very full. Of all different types of transactions, stand-alone franchises, competitive markets, some E&P some imaging tuck-ins, I should say.

因此，這個問題仍然比較難以預測。但我想告訴你，我認為我們仍然處於一個非常好的併購市場。我們的管道非常充足。我應該說，在所有不同類型的交易、獨立特許經營權、競爭性市場、一些 E&P 和一些成像合併中。

So we remain very bullish. We're not going to sit here and say, hey, we're going to repeat our best year ever, which was last year at $750 million. But I think we are very comfortable sitting here saying we expect an above-average year as we sit here in the early part of February.

因此我們仍然非常樂觀。我們不會坐在這裡說，嘿，我們要重複我們有史以來最好的一年，也就是去年 7.5 億美元的表現。但我認為，我們可以很放心地說，由於現在是二月初，我們預計今年的業績將高於平均水準。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

Hi, good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

good morning, Jerry.

早安，傑瑞。

Ron, I'm wondering if you could just expand on the progress that you folks are making ramping up the rail shipments and where do you expect volumes to get to exiting in '25 and what are you seeing in terms of the actual shipping costs versus what you folks were modelling at the beginning of the ramp?

羅恩，我想知道您是否可以詳細介紹一下你們在增加鐵路運輸量方面取得的進展，以及您預計 25 年運輸量將達到什麼水平，以及與您在增加鐵路運輸量之初預測的情況相比，實際運輸成本有何變化？

Yes. Sure, Jerry. So let's -- for those that are not familiar, let's take you back, our Arrowhead transaction, which we did August of '23. So we've now owned about 15 months, 16 months thereabouts. When we acquired that set of assets, that set of assets was doing about 2,500 tonnes up to maybe 2,700 tonnes a day into the landfill.

是的。當然，傑瑞。那麼，對於那些不熟悉的人，讓我們回顧一下我們的 Arrowhead 交易，我們在 1923 年 8 月進行了這項交易。所以我們現在擁有大約 15 個月、大約 16 個月的時間。當我們收購這組資產時，它們每天向垃圾掩埋場填埋約 2,500 噸到 2,700 噸垃圾。

We are now at 7,000 tonnes a day pretty consistently. So we have not quite tripled it, but we're getting closer. The largest amount of that is coming from internalized markets on the Northeast that we used to go externally or may have gone to one of our East Coast landfills, which freed up airspace to market to third parties.

現在我們每天的產量穩定在 7,000 噸。因此，雖然我們還沒有將其增加三倍，但我們已經越來越接近了。其中最大的一部分來自東北部的內部市場，我們過去都是將這些市場轉向外部，或者可能轉移到我們東海岸的一個垃圾掩埋場，這樣就騰出了空域來向第三方行銷。

Now we believe as we come through 2025, we will get into that 8,000 tonne to 9,000 tonne a day range. And so we will achieve months after ownership, a tripling of the volumes that came through that site relative to when we acquired it, which is, I think, what we said. And we believe long term, we will achieve 10,000 tonnes a day or more over a multiyear period.

現在我們相信，到 2025 年，我們的產量將達到每天 8,000 噸到 9,000 噸的範圍。因此，在擁有該站點的幾個月後，我們的站點的吞吐量將比我們收購時增長三倍，我想，這就是我們所說的。我們相信，從長遠來看，我們將在多年時間內實現每天 10,000 噸或更多的產量。

Again, a very high amount of this will come through our internalizing network on the East Coast predominantly. As far as the cost structure, Jerry, has remained very stable. One of the great assets that came along with this was a very long-term contract with Norfolk Southern. And that was something we spent a lot of time with to look at what the volatility could be in the cost structure because the transport of volumes from the East Coast to the Southeast is obviously the largest cost of things.

再次強調，其中很大一部分將主要透過我們位於東海岸的內部化網絡來實現。就成本結構而言，Jerry 一直保持非常穩定。隨之而來的一大資產是與諾福克南方鐵路簽訂的長期合約。我們花了很多時間研究成本結構可能出現的波動，因為從東海岸到東南地區的貨物運輸顯然是最大的成本。

And we feel very good about that indexing it to effectively a national CPI. So very good there, a good cost structure on our intermodal facilities along the Eastern Seaboard. So that asset is performing as or better than expected, I would say.

我們對於將其有效地與全國CPI 掛鉤感到非常高興。非常好，我們東海岸沿線的多式聯運設施的成本結構很好。所以我想說，該資產的表現達到或超過預期。

Ron, and in terms of the M&A opportunity now that you have that logistics runway, and we're seeing more and more landfill closures in the Northeast? How optimistic are you folks about significant M&A opportunity where you have a lot of value to add via the rail network in the Northeast as you look at your pipeline for '25?

羅恩，就併購機會而言，現在你們有了物流跑道，而且我們看到東北地區越來越多的垃圾掩埋場關閉？當您展望 25 年的管道時，對於透過東北鐵路網絡可以增加許多價值的重大併購機會，你們有多樂觀？

I would say, Jerry, we're very, very optimistic. I mean, obviously, we had a very big year in '24, and we had a big year in New York in '24. And I can tell you that in the transactions that are signed definitive agreements that haven't yet closed, there are more transactions in New York that we have done, and you will hear about as we come through Q1 all of those are being internalized. So it is providing us I would say, multiple bites out of the revenue dollar relative to what we had before potentially doing that transaction.

我想說，傑瑞，我們非常非常樂觀。我的意思是，顯然，24 年是我們非常重要的一年，24 年也是我們在紐約非常重要的一年。我可以告訴你，在已經簽署但尚未完成的最終協議的交易中，我們在紐約完成的交易更多，隨著我們進入第一季度，你會聽到所有這些交易都正在內部化。因此，我想說，相對於我們在進行該交易之前的收入而言，它為我們帶來了數倍的收入。

So yes, it certainly has created greater white space, so to speak, on the Eastern seaboard of markets that we are looking at and have entered in '24 and will continue to do in parts of '25 and beyond. So no question about that.

所以是的，可以這麼說，它確實在我們正在關注的東部沿海市場創造了更大的空白，並且已經在24年進入了這個市場，並且將在25年及以後的部分地區繼續這樣做。因此對此毫無疑問。

It also helps remove or protect against volatility of permitting time frames and things that happen, particularly as you get along the eastern seaboard, which can be as challenging as the West Coast and permitting time frames. So it does provide us a lot of optionality.

它還有助於消除或防止允許時間框架和發生的事情的波動，特別是當您沿著東海岸行駛時，這可能與西海岸和允許時間框架一樣具有挑戰性。所以它確實為我們提供了很多可選性。

Super. And lastly, just conceptually, as we look at the volatility in recycled cardboard and plastic prices and good to see a stabilization, but if they were to take a leg down, would you folks think about pushing pricing in the baseline waste business to offset the headwind to earnings this year, if that were to happen, just conceptually, how are you thinking about that given the lack of control on that part of the pricing stream?

極好的。最後，從概念上講，我們看到再生紙板和塑料價格波動，很高興看到價格趨於穩定，但如果價格下跌，你們是否會考慮推動基線廢物業務的定價，以抵消今年盈利面臨的阻力？

Yes. I think what we see -- I don't know that we would necessarily -- by the way, what I'm about to say, you get to the same point of your question. But I don't know that we necessarily look to push our solid waste or other customers to offset or subsidize the decline in recycling, what we would look to do is raise the processing cost per tonne through our recycled facilities.

是的。我想我們看到的——我不知道我們是否一定會——順便說一句，我要說的是，你和你的問題觀點相同。但我不知道我們是否一定會推動我們的固體廢棄物或其他客戶來抵消或補貼回收的下降，我們希望做的是透過我們的回收設施來提高每噸的加工成本。

Now that, obviously, when you do it on a third party, you recover, you also have to do it internally. So you, in effect, get to what you said, but that is really -- I think the entire industry has moved to much more of a model reliance for returns in recycling being based on a processing cost per ton itself and for its third-party customers and the commodities being -- I'm going to use the word an upside or a float factor or something that there's a rebate structure on above certain levels to a customer if they're willing to live with the volatility.

現在，很明顯，當你在第三方上執行此操作時，你會恢復，你也必須在內部執行此操作。因此，實際上，您已經理解了您所說的內容，但實際上——我認為整個行業已經轉向更加依賴模型，回收回報基於每噸加工成本本身以及第三方客戶和商品——我將使用上行或浮動因素這個詞，或者如果客戶願意承受波動，則在超過一定水平時會向客戶提供回扣結構。

Appreciate the conversation. Thank you.

感謝您的交談。謝謝。

Thank you, Jerry.

謝謝你，傑瑞。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer & Company.

諾亞·凱伊（Noah Kaye），奧本海默公司。

Okay. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question.

好的。早安.感謝您回答這個問題。

Good morning.

早安.

Quick housekeeping one to start for our models. So volumes, I think it implies down 1% to 2%, but actually, there's another 50 bps from Chiquita. So just so we all understand, is it accurate that reported volumes you're expecting down 1.5% to 2.5%, is that right?

為我們的模型開始進行快速管理。所以，我認為交易量意味著下降 1% 到 2%，但實際上，Chiquita 還下降了 50 個基點。所以為了讓我們都明白，您預計報告的交易量將下降 1.5% 到 2.5%，對嗎？

That's correct. You're saying, including Chiquita. Yes.

沒錯。你說的是，包括 Chiquita。是的。

Okay. All right. And then ITC, it sounds like you're clearly not baking that in, any benefits. Obviously, there was a pure that did -- the guidance has been kind of clarified from treasury around what's eligible. So I guess, first, making sure do you expect to be able to at least qualify for ITC benefits based on timing of start-up construction? And is it possible then to kind of give a rough range of estimates, at least for the portion of CapEx that is for facilities you're running?

好的。好的。然後 ITC，聽起來你顯然沒有考慮到任何好處。顯然，財政部已經就什麼是合格做出了明確規定。所以我想，首先，確保您是否至少能夠根據啟動建造的時間獲得 ITC 福利？那麼，是否可以給出一個粗略的估算範圍，至少對於您正在運營的設施的資本支出部分？

What we'd say is, yes, to the first point that we believe we qualify. And to that point, we benefited from a $10 million tax credit last year. And so we certainly understand the process and the dynamics. It'd be premature, not knowing what the qualifying equipment is precisely in the content. But we look to maximize those benefits through making the decisions about the equipment and labor, and we'll certainly keep you posted. But our view is we communicate the outlays excluding any of that benefit and let it be upside to anything we've told you.

我們要說的是，是的，對於第一點，我們認為我們符合資格。到目前為止，我們去年已受益於 1000 萬美元的稅收抵免。因此我們當然了解這個過程和動態。現在還為時過早，不知道內容中合格的設備到底是什麼。但我們希望透過對設備和勞動力做出決策來最大限度地實現這些利益，我們一定會隨時向您通報最新情況。但我們的觀點是，我們傳達的支出不包括任何好處，並且它會對我們告訴您的任何事情產生影響。

Yes. And presumably, just to add a point, the claiming of this would really be coinciding with when facilities come online, right? So I understand there's not that much for this year. Okay. And then the last one, and it's partly a modelling question, but really, I think, trying to understand or underscore the pace of operating improvements is the margin bridge, right?

是的。而且據推測，只是補充一點，這說法確實與設施上線的時間相吻合，對嗎？所以我知道今年的事情不會太多。好的。然後是最後一個，這部分是一個建模問題，但實際上，我認為，試圖理解或強調營運改善的速度是利潤橋樑，對嗎？

So you gave us the impact of commodities and FX, would love to understand how M&A factors into the margin bridge. But what I'd really love to get to here is kind of apples-to-apples, what underlying solid waste margin expansion was in '24 where you expect it will be in '25, and what drives that pace of improvement?

所以您給了我們商品和外匯的影響，很想了解併購如何影響保證金橋樑。但我真正想做的是進行對比，24 年固體廢棄物利潤率擴張情況如何，您預計 25 年也會如此，以及推動這種改善速度的因素是什麼？

Yes. So Noah, we would tell you that M&A was sort of flat to margin contribution-wise, was sort of flat to maybe down about 10 basis points. Now I will also tell you that, that is generally better than normal, and that was based on of deals. We would tell you in any given year, if we're doing an above-average amount of deals, you probably got about a 15 to 20 basis point margin headwind from the deals.

是的。因此，諾亞，我們會告訴您，從利潤率貢獻來看，併購基本上持平，可能下降了約 10 個基點。現在我還要告訴你，這通常比正常情況要好，而且這是基於交易的。我們會告訴你，在任何一年裡，如果我們進行的交易數量高於平均水平，你可能會從這些交易中獲得大約 15 到 20 個基點的利潤阻力。

So if you accept the 10 basis points, you know we reported 100 basis point improvement for the year. Mathematically, right there, you're at 110. We took some decline, as we said, in the fourth quarter up to 60 basis points between FX, RINs, commodities and Chiquita. So you were -- we would tell you the underlying was probably about 120 to plus basis points of margin expansion in the base business.

因此，如果您接受 10 個基點，您就會知道我們報告了今年 100 個基點的改善。從數學上來說，你的分數就是 110。正如我們所說，第四季度外匯、RIN、大宗商品和 Chiquita 之間的差距有所縮小，最高可達 60 個基點。所以，我們會告訴您，基礎業務的利潤率擴張幅度可能在 120 個基點以上。

If you look at the '25 guidance of $50 million to $80 million, we've given you the impacts of those other items. I think you'll obviously get to a number of just a little lower than that. So part of this is being led by -- driven by price-led organic growth.

如果您看一下 5000 萬至 8000 萬美元的 25 年指導金額，我們已經向您提供了其他項目的影響。我想你顯然會得到比這略低一點的數字。因此，部分原因是價格主導的有機成長所致。

As we've always said, and that's why we focus on the spread to the cost structure. But clearly, part of it, we would tell you we have achieved effectively closing in on our 100 basis points target of improvement to the operating cost structure in all but one area, and that is sort of insurance cost, which has been a headwind, again, that we've actually overcome some. So I look to Mary Anne to put more detail on that.

正如我們一直所說的那樣，這就是我們關注成本結構擴散的原因。但顯然，其中的一部分，我們會告訴您，除了一個領域之外，我們已經有效地接近了我們所有領域運營成本結構改善 100 個基點的目標，那就是保險成本，這再次成為一個阻力，但我們實際上已經克服了一些。因此我希望瑪麗安能夠對此提供更詳細的說明。

Yes. Just to clarify a little bit on how the RINs and recycling the interplay, what Ron described, that was really sort of towards the end of the year, and we've had the benefit early in the year. So we did have a benefit from recycling and RINs for full year 2024. And I would say if you attributed about 30 basis points benefit there, then it says the remainder to Ron's point, is primarily underlying solid waste to get you to that 100.

是的。只是為了稍微澄清一下 RIN 和回收之間的相互作用，正如 Ron 所描述的，那實際上是在年底的時候，而我們在年初就已經獲得了好處。因此，我們確實從 2024 年全年的回收和 RIN 中獲益。我想說的是，如果你將大約 30 個基點的收益歸因於此，那麼根據羅恩的觀點，剩餘部分主要是潛在的固體廢物，才能讓你達到那 100 個基點。

And as I said earlier, if you think about what we're talking about this year, that recycling in RINs that flips to a headwind, right? So in what we've guided to, it's down 20 basis points to 50 basis points. So being a good guy up 30% to down 20% to 50%, along with FX, which I think it's sometimes underappreciated what it does to -- every penny of FX, just translation is almost $20 million in revenue, and it's high flow-through, right? Because that's a 45% margin piece of the business.

正如我之前所說，如果您想想我們今年所談論的內容，那麼 RIN 中的回收就會出現逆風，對嗎？因此，按照我們的指導，它將下降 20 個基點到 50 個基點。因此，作為一個好人，增長 30% 到下降 20% 到 50%，再加上外匯，我認為有時人們低估了它的作用——每一分錢的外匯，僅僅是翻譯就將近 2000 萬美元的收入，而且它的流通率很高，對吧？因為這是業務利潤的45%。

So it really speaks to the strength of the underlying business for all those reasons that Ron was describing. And again, as we've talked about, think of that as 100 basis points -- up to 100 basis points margin expansion is what we're guiding to in '25.

因此，由於羅恩所描述的所有原因，這確實說明了基礎業務的實力。再次，正如我們已經討論過的，將其想像為 100 個基點——我們預計在 25 年利潤率將擴大至 100 個基點。

Yes. So really a very consistent pace of improvement here. Thank you for all the detail.

是的。所以這裡的改進步伐確實非常一致。感謝您提供的所有詳細資訊。

Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的科納克‧古普塔 (Konark Gupta)。

Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to follow up on this margin question recently. So the expansion for Q1, I think you guys are expecting 0.5 point and for the full year, it's 50 bps to 80 bps at least. So in this (inaudible) I know Q3 is your usual to be the biggest quarter. But just from sort of the moving parts perspective between the commodities and Chiquita, et cetera, is there a quarter where you expect more sort of above average margin expansion in particular?

感謝您回答我的問題。我最近只是想跟進一下這個保證金問題。因此，我認為你們預計第一季的擴張幅度為 0.5 個百分點，而全年的擴張幅度至少為 50 個基點到 80 個基點。因此在這個（聽不清楚）中我知道第三季通常是你們最大的季度。但是，僅從大宗商品和 Chiquita 等之間的變動角度來看，您是否預計某個季度的利潤率擴張將高於平均水平？

Well, here's the way to think about it. So we guided to 50 basis points to 80 basis points. And so -- and then we're giving you Q1 at arguably the low end of that range. If you think of what the dynamics are that would move us to the higher end of the range, they would include things like improvement in recycled commodities, RINs, FX and now look at Q1 where, of course, we're not assuming that. And you've got -- for instance, on FX, the toughest comp. It was $0.74 last year, were $0.69 now. So that's just one item.

好吧，以下是思考這個問題的方法。因此我們預期利率將上升50個基點至80個基點。所以 — — 然後我們給你的 Q1 可以說是該範圍的低端。如果你考慮哪些動力會讓我們達到範圍的高端，它們將包括再生商品、RIN、FX 的改善等因素，現在看看第一季度，當然，我們並沒有假設這一點。而你已經得到了 — — 例如，在 FX 上，最艱難的比較。去年是 0.74 美元，現在是 0.69 美元。這只是其中一項。

Tough comps also on recycled commodities, RINs. And so as you can see, you can put the pieces together to understand how much of a drag there is in Q1 from those comps and that there's the opportunity over the course of the year for any improvement in any of those metrics to ease the comparison, which would, over time, get you to the higher end of the range.

對回收商品和 RIN 的競爭也很激烈。因此，正如您所看到的，您可以將各個部分放在一起，以了解第一季度與這些可比公司相比的拖累有多大，並且全年都有機會改善任何一項指標，以簡化比較，隨著時間的推移，這將使您達到範圍的高端。

Okay. That makes sense. Thanks. And then on the volume side, thanks for providing the pricing, but just on the volume side, understanding the 1.5%, 2.5% decline, let's say, for the full year, I guess, 0.5 point is from Chiquita, but is it more skewed to -- the decline is more skewed to the first half versus the second half as you kind of start to lap some of those shedding comps?

好的。這很有道理。謝謝。然後在交易量方面，感謝您提供定價，但僅從交易量方面來看，了解 1.5%、2.5% 的下降，比如說，全年而言，我猜，0.5 個百分點來自 Chiquita，但它是否更偏向於 - 下降更偏向於上半年而不是下半年，因為您開始覆蓋一些正在脫落的可比產品？

Yes, that's the right way to think about it. I mean you think about the exit speed in Q4, right, so you can -- 27x Chiquita that doesn't go away immediately because you're working through that shedding. And so I would say -- I would sort of take the inverse if I were modelling it, that price starts goes high to low, and I do say volume goes low to high.

是的，這是正確的思考方式。我的意思是，你考慮 Q4 的退出速度，對吧，所以你可以 - 27x Chiquita 不會立即消失，因為你正在努力擺脫這種困境。所以我想說——如果我要建模的話我會採取相反的做法，即價格開始由高變低，而成交量則由低變高。

Okay. Great. Thanks. And last one for me before I turn over. On the E&P side, I think recently at least were pretty strong from a revenue standpoint. I know secure assets obviously contributed there. But like even your underlying business seems like it's doing pretty well. How should we think about the growth in this business this year?

好的。偉大的。謝謝。在我翻過頁之前，這是我的最後一頁。在勘探與生產方面，我認為至少從收入角度來看最近表現相當強勁。我知道安全資產顯然在那裡做出了貢獻。但即使你的基礎業務看起來也做得很好。我們應該怎麼看待今年這個業務的成長？

Sure. So you'll continue to see the rollover contributions not only from the secure deal, right, which is 1-month rollover. But then we did a follow-on acquisition in the second quarter in Canada, and we've done some additional activity in the US. And so I think you saw a total of $140 million in reported revenue in Q4, and that number continues to grow and probably approaches a run rate more like 150 per quarter. And so again, it's really primarily rollover contribution from facilities we put in place last year.

當然。因此，您將繼續看到展期貢獻，不僅來自安全交易，對吧，這是 1 個月的展期。但隨後我們在第二季在加拿大進行了後續收購，並在美國進行了一些額外的活動。因此，我認為您會看到第四季度的報告總收入為 1.4 億美元，而該數字還在繼續增長，並且可能接近每季 150 億美元的運行率。所以，這其實主要是我們去年建立的設施的展期貢獻。

It was great. Thanks for taking time.

非常棒。感謝您抽出時間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Butler, Stifel.

布萊恩‧巴特勒 (Brian Butler)，Stifel。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

嘿，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。

Thank you, Brian.

謝謝你，布萊恩。

Just on the first one, maybe when you talk about internal inflation, I mean, you have pricing kind of running at 6%. So if you think about the 50 basis points to 80 basis points of margin expansion you're looking at, where is internal inflation in your estimates for 2025?

就第一個問題而言，也許當您談論內部通貨膨脹時，我的意思是您的定價大約在 6% 左右。因此，如果您考慮利潤率擴大 50 個基點到 80 個基點，那麼在您對 2025 年的預測中，內部通膨在哪裡？

Yes. So right about 4.5% is a good way to think about it and not just because that nicely ties to our 150 basis points spread by doing 6% price. But what we're really seeing in the business, primarily led by the abating of the inflation in labor rates. And as you'll recall, we've been talking about this for the past couple of years, the step down from 8% two years ago.

是的。因此，4.5% 左右是一個很好的思考方式，而不僅僅是因為它透過 6% 的價格與我們的 150 個基點利差很好地掛鉤。但我們在業務中真正看到的情況，主要是由於勞動力價格通膨的緩解。您可能還記得，過去幾年我們一直在談論這個問題，兩年前該比率已從 8% 降至現在。

We came down in Q4 to about 4.5%, which is really right where we would the way to think about it, we think, for 2025. And so that's the primary mover there, and that is what's contributing to that price/cost spread that helps to drive the margin expansion in '25.

我們在第四季度將這一比例降至 4.5% 左右，我們認為，這對 2025 年來說是正確的。這是主要的推動因素，也是造成價格/成本差額的因素，有助於推動25年的利潤率擴大。

Okay. Great. And then we already touched on M&A, but I thought just I'd revisit it. When you look at the pipeline, how does it compare to where we were maybe a year ago? And how does the competitive environment for deals compare? And is there anything under the current administration that actually could get done now that maybe over the last four years could not?

好的。偉大的。然後我們已經談到了併購，但我想我會重新討論一下。當您查看管道時，它與一年前相比如何？交易的競爭環境如何？那麼，現任政府執政期間，是否有任何事可以完成，而過去四年卻無法完成？

Let's take the second part of that first. We have never had fortunately, I've gone through a second request on an HSR. And part of that's our model focus. So I would -- we have not had an issue of deal flow under the prior administration. So I would not want to tell you that, that should improve because we have had no restriction. I know others based on their footprint may have. I don't think that is any incremental improvement for us whatsoever.

我們先討論第二部分。幸運的是，我們從來沒有遇到過這種情況，我已經在 HSR 上經歷了第二次請求。其中一部分是我們的模型重點。所以我想說──在前政府的領導下，我們並不存在交易流程問題。所以我不想告訴你，情況應該會改善，因為我們沒有受到限制。根據他們的足跡，我知道其他人可能有。我認為這對我們來說不是什麼漸進的進步。

I would tell you that I think the pipeline is very good, as I've said. The only difference is remember that we came into early last year, having announced at the end of December of that we would be closing the Secure acquisition in the first quarter, and that was a couple of hundred million dollars of revenue.

我想告訴你，我認為這條管道非常好，正如我所說的。唯一的區別是，記得我們在去年年初就已經宣布，我們將在第一季完成對 Secure 的收購，那筆收入將達到數億美元。

So we're not sitting here today with -- telling you that there's a secure to do in the first quarter. But I will tell you, within our pipeline of discussions and LOIs, there are deals approaching that size in that pipeline. So that would be the only delta between as we sit here today in one year ago.

因此，我們今天不會坐在這裡告訴你們第一季有什麼事情要做。但我要告訴你，在我們的討論和意向書中，有接近該規模的交易。因此，這就是我們今天坐在這裡與一年前之間的唯一差異。

Okay. Great. Thanks for taking my question.

好的。偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。

Tobey Sommer, Truist.

托比·索默 (Tobey Sommer)，Truist。

Thanks. Going to follow up on the change in administration. You touched on taxes and now you commented on whether the M&A regulatory regime matters for you. Are there any other elements of the change in administration that you have your eye on for your business? And maybe comment on what it could do to your acquisition targets.

謝謝。將追蹤政府行政方面的變化。您提到了稅務問題，現在您評論了併購監管制度對您是否重要。您是否關注政府變動對您的業務的其他影響？或許還可以評論一下它對您的收購目標有何影響。

Look, I think it's obviously early days, Tobey. And there's a lot of moving pieces, as you know. I -- there's nothing that at least or we are at least hearing that I think is a negative acquisition activity. I think most everything we have seen and heard would be a positive if it's implemented or moves forward. So nothing that would be a negative.

瞧，我認為現在顯然還為時過早，托比。如你所知，其中有很多活動部件。我 — — 至少我們沒有聽到任何我認為是負面的收購活動。我認為我們所看到和聽到的大多數事情如果得以實施或向前推進都會是積極的。因此沒有什麼是負面的事情。

I can't really speak necessarily for private sellers. But if there is an improvement in tax rates, that's an accelerant, if there is for M&A. If there is a decrease in interest rates, I would tell you that's an accelerant. If there's an improving economy, that is a benefit. If there is tariffs that affect CapEx for private sellers, that's a benefit.

我其實不一定能代表私人賣家發言。但如果稅率有所改善，這對併購來說就是一種加速劑。如果利率下降，我會告訴你，這是一種加速劑。如果經濟好轉，那是一種好處。如果關稅影響私人賣家的資本支出，那就是好處。

So again, I'm not really -- there's really nothing if there's a decrease maybe regulatory or enforcement environment, I'd say for private sellers, that's probably neutral. I would say that probably is a benefit to us overall.

所以再說一次，我並不是真的——如果監管或執法環境有所下降，那真的沒什麼，我想對私人賣家來說，這可能是中性的。我想說這對我們整體來說可能是件好事。

So -- and if there is if there ends up being immigration reform of some form, I don't know if that will happen, but if it does, that's a benefit to us as well because there's been really no path to immigration, as you know, and despite a large amount of people coming through the Southern border really us as a public company, we can't hire those people. They don't have the ability to work in the US legally.

所以——如果最終有某種形式的移民改革，我不知道是否會發生，但如果發生了，這對我們也有利，因為正如你所知，實際上沒有移民的途徑，儘管有大量的人通過南部邊境進入美國，但作為一家上市公司，我們無法僱用這些人。他們沒有在美國合法工作的能力。

So if there was an ability for them to work in the US legally through immigration reform, that would be a benefit, I think, to the whole sector. So -- and service sectors in general. So again, we're not aware of anything that would be a negative at this point at least.

因此，如果他們能夠透過移民改革合法地在美國工作，我認為這將對整個產業有利。所以—整體而言，服務業也是如此。所以再說一次，至少目前我們還沒有發現任何會產生負面影響的事情。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll be ending today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Ron Mittelstaedt for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節就到此結束。我想將發言權交還給 Ron Mittelstaedt，請他做最後發言。

Okay. Thank you, operator. Well, if there are no further questions, on behalf of our entire management team, we appreciate your listening to and interest in the call today. Mary Anne and Joe Box are available today to answer any direct questions that we did not cover that we are allowed to answer under Regulation FD, Regulation G and applicable securities laws in Canada. Thank you again, and we look forward to seeing you at upcoming investor conferences or on our next earnings call.

好的。謝謝您，接線生。好吧，如果沒有其他問題的話，我代表我們整個管理團隊感謝您聆聽並關註今天的電話會議。今天，Mary Anne 和 Joe Box 將解答我們未涉及的、根據 FD 規則、G 規則和加拿大適用的證券法我們有權回答的任何直接問題。再次感謝您，我們期待在即將召開的投資者會議或下次財報電話會議上見到您。

And thank you, everyone, for joining today's conference call and presentation. It has now concluded. Once again, we do thank you for joining. Have a pleasant day.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議和演講。現在已經結束。再次感謝您的加入。祝您有個愉快的一天。