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Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this is the conference operator. Thank you for joining this morning's Waste Connections and conference call. The call will begin momentarily. Once again, we do thank you for joining. Please stay on the line and the call will begin momentarily.
女士們先生們,這裡是會議接線生。感謝您參加今天早上的廢棄物管理聯誼會電話會議。通話即將開始。再次感謝您的參與。請保持通話,通話即將開始。
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Waste Connections, Inc. Q3 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions). Also note today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Ron Mittelstaedt, President and CEO. Sir, please go ahead.
各位早安,歡迎參加 Waste Connections, Inc. 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作說明)另請注意,今天的活動正在錄影。此時,我謹將會議交給總裁兼執行長 Ron Mittelstaedt。先生,請繼續。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. Thank you, operator, and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to this conference call to discuss our third quarter results and to provide some thoughts about the remainder of the year and the setup for 2026. I'm joined this morning by Mary Whitney, our CFO, and several other members of our senior management.
好的。謝謝接線員,早安。歡迎大家參加本次電話會議,我們將討論第三季業績,並就今年剩餘時間以及 2026 年的規劃提出一些想法。今天早上和我一起的有我們的財務長瑪麗·惠特尼以及其他幾位高級管理人員。
As noted in our release, superior execution drove better-than-expected financial results in the third quarter, bolstered by continued improvement in operating trends. another quarterly step down in employee turnover and new record low safety incident rates, together with strong pricing execution retention drove adjusted EBITDA margins of 33.8%, reflecting underlying solid waste margin expansion of approximately 80 basis points in the period. I'm extremely pleased by our team's efforts to overcome incremental commodity headwinds and ongoing uncertainty in the economy in Q3 and to achieve the results above expectations.
正如我們在新聞稿中所述,卓越的執行力推動了第三季度超出預期的財務業績,營運趨勢的持續改善也為此提供了有力支撐。員工流動率的季度性下降和安全事故率創歷史新低,加上強勁的定價策略和客戶留存率,使得調整後 EBITDA 利潤率達到 33.8%,反映出該季度固體廢棄物業務利潤率提升了約 80 個基點。我非常高興看到我們的團隊在第三季度克服了大宗商品價格上漲帶來的不利影響以及經濟持續存在的不確定性,並取得了超出預期的業績。
Assuming continuing trends and without further headwinds, we remain well positioned to deliver our full year 2025 outlook as provided in July. Before we get into much more detail, let me turn the call over to Mary Anne for our forward-looking disclaimer and other housekeeping items.
假設趨勢持續,且沒有進一步的不利因素,我們仍有能力實現我們在7月提供的2025年全年展望。在我們深入探討細節之前,請容許我把電話交給瑪麗安妮,讓她談談我們未來的免責聲明和其他一些事項。
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Ron, and good morning. The discussion today during today's call includes forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Actual results could differ materially from those made in such forward-looking statements due to various risks and uncertainties.
謝謝你,羅恩,早安。今天的電話會議討論內容包括根據 1995 年美國私人證券訴訟改革法案的安全港條款作出的前瞻性陳述,包括適用加拿大證券法意義上的前瞻性資訊。由於各種風險和不確定性,實際結果可能與此類前瞻性聲明中所作的結果有重大差異。
Factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed both in the cautionary statement included in our October 21 earnings release and in greater detail in Waste Connections filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the securities commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as there may be additional risks of which we are not presently aware or that we currently believe are immaterial, which could have an adverse impact on our business.
可能導致實際結果出現差異的因素,在 10 月 21 日發布的收益報告中的警示性聲明中以及 Waste Connections 向美國證券交易委員會和加拿大證券委員會或類似監管機構提交的文件中均有更詳細的討論。您不應過度依賴前瞻性陳述,因為可能存在我們目前尚未意識到或我們目前認為無關緊要的其他風險,這些風險可能會對我們的業務產生不利影響。
We make no commitment to revise or update any forward-looking statements in order to reflect events or circumstances that may change after today's date. On the call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income attributable to Waste Connections on both a dollar basis and per diluted share and adjusted free cash flow. Please refer to our earnings releases for a reconciliation of such non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures.
我們不承諾修改或更新任何前瞻性聲明,以反映今天之後可能發生的事件或情況的變化。在電話會議上,我們將討論非GAAP指標,例如調整後的EBITDA、歸屬於Waste Connections的調整後淨利潤(以美元和稀釋後每股計算)以及調整後的自由現金流。請查閱我們的獲利報告,以了解這些非GAAP指標與最接近的GAAP指標的調節情況。
Management uses certain non-GAAP measures to evaluate and monitor the ongoing financial performance of our operations. Other companies may calculate these non-GAAP measures differently.
管理階層使用某些非GAAP指標來評估和監控我們營運的持續財務表現。其他公司可能會採用不同的方法來計算這些非GAAP指標。
I will now turn the call back over to Ron.
現在我將把通話轉回給羅恩。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. Thank you, Mary Anne. We are extremely pleased to deliver third quarter results above expectations, demonstrating the durability of solid waste regardless of the economic environment. Q3 revenue growth was led by 6.3% or solid waste price with reported volumes slightly better than expected, down 2.7%. We delivered margins of 33.8%, up 100 basis points year over year, excluding the impact of commodities and our decision to close Chiquita Canyon landfill as of January 1. Said another way, normalizing for these factors puts our Q3 margins at 34.7%, without the benefit of any contribution from positive volumes.
好的。謝謝你,瑪麗安妮。我們非常高興地宣布第三季業績超出預期,這證明了固體廢棄物處理產業不受經濟環境的影響,具有持久的市場價值。第三季營收成長主要得益於固體廢棄物價格上漲 6.3%,報告的銷量略好於預期,下降了 2.7%。不計大宗商品價格波動的影響以及我們從 1 月 1 日起關閉 Chiquita Canyon 垃圾掩埋場的決定,我們的利潤率為 33.8%,比上年同期增長 100 個基點。換句話說,如果將這些因素考慮在內,我們第三季的利潤率為 34.7%,這還不包括銷售成長帶來的任何收益。
As we've said, we remain well positioned to enjoy the upside from any pickup in volumes from the broader economy, given our asset position and market selection strategy. As anticipated, we continue to advance that strategy through acquisition activity, which has continued at an above-average pace, resulting in approximately $300 million in annualized revenues, either closed or under definitive agreement year-to-date, with more expected in Q4 and by early 2026.
正如我們所說,鑑於我們的資產狀況和市場選擇策略,我們仍然處於有利地位,能夠從整體經濟的任何銷售回升中獲益。正如預期的那樣,我們繼續透過收購活動來推進該策略,收購活動一直以高於平均水平的速度進行,截至目前,已完成或正在簽訂最終協議的收購項目已帶來約 3 億美元的年化收入,預計第四季度和 2026 年初還將有更多收購項目。
We've had some fantastic M&A wins, including two of the largest private companies in Florida, one of which we closed during Q3 with the other signed and expected to close in Q4. Moreover, our operating performance, free cash flow and balance sheet continue to provide the capacity for outsized acquisition activity and expanded return of capital to shareholders. To that end, our Board of Directors authorized an 11.1% increase to our regular quarterly cash dividend, our 15th consecutive annual double-digit increase since the initiation of our dividend in 2010.
我們取得了一些非常棒的併購成果,包括佛羅裡達州兩家最大的私人公司,其中一家已在第三季完成交易,另一家已簽署協議,預計將在第四季度完成交易。此外,我們的經營業績、自由現金流和資產負債表繼續為大規模收購活動和擴大對股東的資本回報提供了能力。為此,我們的董事會批准將季度現金股息提高 11.1%,這是我們自 2010 年開始派發股息以來連續第 15 年實現兩位數的年度增長。
Additionally, as noted on our last call, we've been in the market buying back shares as we take an opportunistic approach to share repurchases and look to capitalize when we see compelling dislocation and across the market or within our sector. To date, we bought back approximately 2.4 million shares or almost 1% of shares outstanding pursuant to our normal course issuer bid, which were renewed in August providing for annual repurchases of up to 5% of shares outstanding.
此外,正如我們在上次電話會議中提到的,我們一直在市場上回購股票,因為我們採取機會主義的股票回購方式,並希望在看到市場或我們所在的行業出現明顯的錯位時從中獲利。迄今為止,我們已根據正常的發行人回購計畫回購了約 240 萬股,約佔已發行股份的 1%。該計劃已於 8 月續期,規定每年可回購至多 5% 的已發行股份。
Along with executing our growth strategy, we've also shown significant progress towards achievement of our long-term aspirational sustainability-related targets as highlighted in our recently released 2025 sustainability report. In fact, we've already achieved several of our initial targets, including emissions reductions, safety performance and recycling and being well ahead of our expectations, and we continue to challenge ourselves for further progress as we demonstrate that sustainability is integral to our long-term value creation and part of our corporate culture.
在執行成長策略的同時,我們也取得了顯著進展,朝著實現我們長期永續發展目標邁出了重要一步,正如我們最近發布的 2025 年永續發展報告中所強調的那樣。事實上,我們已經實現了幾個最初的目標,包括減少排放、提高安全績效和回收率,並且遠遠超出了我們的預期。我們將繼續挑戰自我,爭取更大的進步,因為我們正在證明,永續發展是我們長期價值創造不可或缺的一部分,也是我們企業文化的一部分。
Most notably, with multiyear reductions of 19% in emissions, our results demonstrate the outsized growth is compatible with the achievement of our long-term aspirational ESG targets. This improvement also applies to employee engagement, where we've seen ongoing reductions during 2025 in voluntary turnover and safety-related metrics. In Q3, voluntary turnover was down for the 12th consecutive quarter for a total reduction of over 55% from the peak in late '22 and early '23.
最值得注意的是,多年來排放量減少了 19%,我們的結果表明,這種超額成長與我們長期雄心勃勃的 ESG 目標的實現是相容的。這項改善也體現在員工敬業度方面,我們看到,在 2025 年,員工自願離職率和安全相關指標持續下降。第三季度,自願離職率連續第 12 季下降,與 2022 年末和 2023 年初的高峰相比,總降幅超過 55%。
Similarly, safety incident rates have shown continuous multiyear improvement, now down over 25% to new historic lows for the company. Cornerstone of our operating philosophy is that people are our strongest differentiator. So we're excited to see that the level of employee engagement has never been stronger. And as we've maintained, would be the case two years ago, we're seeing the benefits of higher employee retention and engagement in our financial results, as evidenced by our 80 basis points of underlying margin expansion in the quarter with more to come given record safety levels and nearly three years of progress.
同樣,安全事故率也呈現持續多年的改善趨勢,目前已下降超過 25%,創下公司歷史新低。我們經營理念的核心是:人才是我們最大的競爭優勢。因此,我們很高興地看到員工敬業度達到了前所未有的高度。正如我們兩年前一直堅持的那樣,我們已經從更高的員工留任率和敬業度中看到了財務業績的提升,本季度基本利潤率增長了 80 個基點,考慮到創紀錄的安全水平和近三年的進展,未來還會有更大的增長。
What may be even more compelling is the opportunity ahead as we harness that engagement to leverage technology in new and unprecedented ways while adhering to the fundamentals that have driven our growth and success. Along with human capital as a differentiator, we're excited to recognize the benefits of using technology to accelerate and expand the reach of our leaders. To that end, we're making long-term investments in technology and infrastructure to maximize their impact and position the company for continued margin expansion.
更具吸引力的或許是未來的機遇,我們可以利用這種參與度,以前所未有的方式運用技術,同時堅持推動我們發展和成功的基本原則。除了人力資本這一差異化因素外,我們也很高興能夠認識到利用科技來加速和擴大我們領導者的影響力所帶來的好處。為此,我們正在對技術和基礎設施進行長期投資,以最大限度地發揮其影響,並使公司能夠持續擴大利潤率。
These investments target productivity and efficiency gains as we look to further digitize and automate operations, enhanced forecasting through data analytics and improve service delivery, all while enabling a greater focus on the customer experience. We are already seeing positive outcomes, including improved pricing retention as we expand the utilization of data analytics across multiple platforms. We look to build upon these efforts as we deploy additional applications and expand our efforts in 2026 and '27.
這些投資旨在提高生產力和效率,我們將進一步實現營運的數位化和自動化,透過數據分析增強預測能力,並改善服務交付,同時更加重視客戶體驗。我們已經看到了積極的成果,包括隨著我們在多個平台上擴大數據分析的使用,價格留存率得到了提高。我們將在 2026 年和 2027 年部署更多應用程式並擴大工作範圍的同時,繼續推動這些努力。
Now before we look ahead, I'd like to pass the call to Mary Anne to review more in depth the financial highlights of the third quarter.
在展望未來之前,我想把電話交給瑪麗安妮,讓她更深入地回顧第三季的財務亮點。
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Ron. In the third quarter, revenue of $2.458 billion was above our outlook and up $120 million or 5.1% year over year. Acquisitions completed since the year ago period contributed about $77 million net of divestitures. Core pricing of 6.3% in Q3 puts us on pace for full year core pricing of approximately 6.5%, which is above our initial expectations coming into 2025 and reflects stronger pricing retention in our competitive regions.
謝謝你,羅恩。第三季營收為 24.58 億美元,高於我們的預期,年增 1.2 億美元,增幅為 5.1%。自上年同期以來完成的收購貢獻了約 7,700 萬美元的淨收益(扣除資產剝離收益)。第三季核心定價為 6.3%,使我們全年核心定價預計將達到約 6.5%,高於我們對 2025 年的初步預期,並反映出我們在競爭激烈的地區擁有更強的價格維持能力。
Volumes were down 2.7%, similar to Q2 and reflected ongoing purposeful and margin-accretive shedding of low-margin contracts and some price volume trade-off. Volumes also reflected continued sluggishness in the more cyclically exposed activities. The effects of slower roll-off activity and lower disposal volumes primarily from construction-oriented activity were similar to those described in previous periods. As such, we saw a more muted seasonal ramp and would be typical for Q3.
成交量下降了 2.7%,與第二季度類似,反映出公司持續有目的地、有目的地剝離低利潤合約以提高利潤率,以及一些價格與成交量之間的權衡。成交量也反映出受週期性影響較大的產業的持續低迷。垃圾清運活動放緩和建築活動導致的垃圾處置量減少的影響與先前時期描述的影響類似。因此,我們看到季節性成長較為平緩,這在第三季屬於正常情況。
Looking year over year in Q3 by line of business on a same-store basis. Roll-up pulls were down 1% and rates per pull up 2%, which is a modest improvement from Q2. Year-over-year pulls in most regions were flattish with our Southern region still down mid-single digits. Markets like Florida and Texas continue to be our weakest, albeit less negative on a year-over-year basis than in previous quarters. Landfill tonnes were up almost 3%, led by higher MSW tonnes, up 2% and special waste tonnes up 10%, with some of that increase due to the timing of jobs that were otherwise expected in Q4.
依業務線和同店數量,第三季進行年比分析。匯總拉取次數下降了 1%,每次拉取費率上升了 2%,與第二季相比略有改善。大多數地區的年增幅基本持平,南部地區的增幅仍為個位數中段。佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州等市場仍然是我們表現最差的市場,儘管與前幾季相比,同比降幅有所縮小。垃圾掩埋噸數增加近 3%,其中都市固體廢棄物噸數增加 2%,特殊廢棄物噸數增加 10%,部分成長是由於原本預計在第四季度進行的工程提前完成所致。
C&D tonnes, while still negative at down 4%, were better on a comparative basis than in recent quarters as the rate of decline may be moderating or again as a result of some timing differences. We've seen pockets of C&D activity in our markets in our central and southern regions as well as ongoing special waste activity in certain West Coast markets.
C&D噸位雖然仍為負值,下降了4%,但與最近幾季相比有所好轉,這可能是由於下降速度放緩,也可能是由於一些時間差異造成的。我們看到,在中部和南部地區的市場中出現了零星的建築和拆除活動,而在西海岸的某些市場中,也出現了持續的特殊廢棄物處理活動。
Moving next to commodity-related activity. Value to recycled commodities and renewable energy credits, or RINs, continued to slide during Q3, both ending the quarter down 30% to 35% year over year. On a combined basis, recycled commodities and landfill gas revenues were down 27% year over year on lower pricing, partially offset by contributions at new facilities. Our E&P waste revenues, on the other hand, were up 7% year over year, driven by our production-oriented R360 Canada business, while our legacy US business was down nominally year over year.
接下來是商品相關活動。第三季度,回收商品和再生能源證書(RINs)的價值持續下滑,兩者較去年同期均下降了 30% 至 35%。由於價格走低,回收商品和垃圾掩埋氣收入合計年減 27%,但新設施的貢獻部分抵銷了這一影響。另一方面,我們的勘探與生產廢料收入同比增長 7%,這主要得益於我們以生產為導向的加拿大 R360 業務,而我們傳統的美國業務同比略有下降。
Adjusted EBITDA for Q3, as reconciled in our earnings release, was $830.3 million, up 5.4% year over year and slightly above our expectations. At 33.8%, our adjusted EBITDA margin was up 10 basis points year over year and better than expected. This was in spite of an extra 20 basis point drag from the decline in commodities during the quarter, as noted. In the aggregate, lower year-over-year revenues from recycling and RINs resulted in a margin drag of about 70 basis points in the quarter.
根據我們在獲利報告中的調整,第三季的調整後 EBITDA 為 8.303 億美元,年增 5.4%,略高於我們的預期。經調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 33.8%,較去年成長 10 個基點,優於預期。儘管如前所述,本季大宗商品價格下跌導致額外 20 個基點的拖累,但情況依然如此。總體而言,回收和 RIN 收入年減,導致本季利潤率下降約 70 個基點。
Underlying solid waste margins, on the other hand, were up 80 basis points. even better than in recent quarters. Not surprisingly, we once again saw the greatest margin improvement in those areas related to employee retention and lower openings. That includes a range of cost categories related to third-party services, including labor and maintenance, parts and repairs. In contrast, we continue to overcome lagging reductions in risk management costs and look forward to unlocking savings for margin expansion in future periods.
另一方面,固體廢棄物的基本利潤率上升了80個基點,甚至比最近幾季都要好。不出所料,與員工留任率和職缺減少相關的領域再次實現了最大的利潤率提升。這包括與第三方服務相關的各種成本類別,包括人工和維護、零件和維修。相較之下,我們繼續努力降低風險管理成本,並期待在未來時期釋放節省的成本,以擴大利潤率。
Net interest expense in the quarter was $79.4 million, and our effective tax rate for the third quarter was 23.6%. Our leverage remained comfortably within our expected range of 2.75 times debt-to-EBITDA. And finally, year-to-date, we have delivered adjusted free cash flow of $1.084 billion on capital expenditures, up over $135 million year over year, providing visibility for full year adjusted free cash flow in line with our outlook of $1.3 billion.
本季淨利息支出為 7,940 萬美元,第三季實際稅率為 23.6%。我們的槓桿率保持在預期的 2.75 倍負債與 EBITDA 比率範圍內。最後,今年迄今為止,我們在資本支出方面實現了 10.84 億美元的調整後自由現金流,比上年同期增長超過 1.35 億美元,使全年調整後自由現金流能夠達到我們 13 億美元的預期。
Assuming continuing trends without further headwinds is no change to our full year guidance, which implies Q4 revenue of approximately $2.36 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin up about 90 basis points year over year to about 33.3%.
假設趨勢持續且沒有進一步的不利因素,我們的全年業績指引不會改變,這意味著第四季營收約為 23.6 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率較去年同期上升約 90 個基點至約 33.3%。
With that, I'll turn the call back over to Ron to provide some preliminary thoughts about 2026 before we head into Q&A.
接下來,我會把電話交還給羅恩,讓他對 2026 年發表一些初步看法,然後再進入問答環節。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Mary Anne. As we have described, we are pleased with our year-to-date results, which not only highlight the strength and resilience of our business but provide momentum for next year. Although we do not provide our formal outlook for 2026 until February, we are able to provide a high-level framework, assuming no change in the current economic environment. On that basis, we should be positioned for the following: mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2026 from price-led organic growth in solid waste and approximately 1% revenue carryover from 2025 acquisition activity to date partially offset by continued headwinds related to commodities.
謝謝你,瑪麗安妮。正如我們之前所述,我們對今年迄今的業績感到滿意,這不僅突顯了我們業務的實力和韌性,也為明年的發展提供了動力。儘管我們直到 2 月才會正式發布 2026 年展望,但假設當前的經濟環境沒有變化,我們可以提供一個高層次的框架。基於此,我們應該能夠實現以下目標:2026 年,固體廢物價格驅動的有機增長將帶來中等個位數的收入增長,而 2025 年迄今為止的收購活動將帶來約 1% 的收入結轉,但部分會被與大宗商品相關的持續不利因素所抵消。
Looking at margins, we remain well positioned for above-average underlying solid waste margin expansion with offsets expected from margin dilutive impacts from acquisitions and commodities. These combined impacts suggest adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in what we would consider a normalized range. And depending on the timing of capital expenditures and other outlays, the conversion of adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow should improve relative to 2025.
從利潤率來看,我們仍處於有利地位,預計將實現高於平均水平的固體廢物基本利潤率擴張,但預計收購和商品價格上漲將對利潤率造成稀釋影響,從而抵消這一擴張。這些綜合影響表明,調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將擴張至我們認為的正常範圍內。根據資本支出和其他支出的時間安排,調整後的 EBITDA 轉化為調整後的自由現金流的比率應該會比 2025 年有所改善。
These aforementioned amounts will be positively impacted by the pace and magnitude of ongoing acquisition activity in Q4 and will grow during 2026 as we complete additional M&A. To the extent that we see improvements in commodities and RINs values, those impacts would also be additive to these preliminary thoughts. We look forward to having better visibility on the tone of the economy, including any government shutdown or tariff-related implications when we provide our formal outlook in February. We're most grateful and extremely proud of the dedication of our over 25,000 employees and the local leadership team is responsible for the consistency of operational execution. We're excited to leverage their effectiveness and provide multiyear opportunities to accelerate growth through our investments in technology.
上述金額將受到第四季度持續收購活動的速度和規模的正面影響,並將在 2026 年隨著我們完成更多併購而成長。如果商品和 RINs 價值有所改善,那麼這些影響也將對這些初步想法起到補充作用。我們期待在二月發布正式展望時,能夠更清楚地了解經濟形勢,包括任何政府停擺或關稅相關影響。我們對我們超過 25,000 名員工的奉獻精神深表感激和自豪,而本地領導團隊則負責確保營運執行的一致性。我們很高興能夠利用它們的有效性,並透過我們在技術方面的投資,提供多年加速成長的機會。
We're also proud to welcome Jason Craft, a long-tenured local, divisional and regional Waste Connections leader to the role of Chief Operating Officer during the quarter. Jason's strong operational background and business acumen make him an ideal addition to the senior leadership team. We will continue to focus on operational excellence and stay true to our culture while also welcoming new and innovative ways to drive value creation and as we say, win from within.
我們也榮幸地歡迎傑森·克拉夫特(Jason Craft)擔任本季首席營運長一職。傑森·克拉夫特是 Waste Connections 公司資深的本地、部門和區域領導者。Jason 擁有豐富的營運經驗和敏銳的商業頭腦,是高階領導團隊的理想人選。我們將繼續專注於卓越運營,堅持我們的企業文化,同時歡迎新的創新方式來創造價值,正如我們所說,從內部贏得勝利。
We appreciate your time today. I will now turn this call over to the operator to open up the lines for your questions. Operator?
感謝您今天抽出時間。現在我將把電話轉交給接線員,以便回答您的問題。操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Tyler Brown, Raymond James.
(操作說明)泰勒布朗,雷蒙德詹姆斯。
Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst
Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst
Can you hear me?
你聽得到我嗎?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Tyler, we can hear you.
泰勒,我們聽得到你說話。
Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst
Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst
Mary Anne, just real quick on E&P. I think it was pretty strong, maybe felt like something was helping there. Can you kind of talk about Q3 and then how we should think about run rating that business, maybe not only in Q4 but maybe even into next year?
瑪麗安妮,關於勘探與生產,我簡單說幾句。我覺得效果挺好的,感覺好像有東西在幫我。您能否談談第三季度的情況,以及我們應該如何看待該業務的運行評級,不僅是第四季度,甚至可能包括明年?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. What I'd say is that as in Q2, we saw nice steady performance in our production-oriented piece of the business in spite of lower crude and we talked about a little bit of weakness in our legacy R360 business. What was different about Q3, what was incremental was that there was a sequential increase in that Canadian business, primarily associated with the remediation job. And so if I were run rating it, I would back out that $10 million, which is what it accounted for.
當然。我想說的是,與第二季一樣,儘管原油價格走低,但我們以生產為導向的業務部分錶現良好且穩定;我們也談到了我們傳統的 R360 業務略顯疲軟。第三季的不同之處在於,加拿大業務出現了環比成長,這主要與修復工作有關。因此,如果我要進行評級,我會把那1000萬美元扣除,因為它佔了很大一部分。
Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst
Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst
Okay. Perfect. $10 million. Okay. Got it. And I appreciate, Ron, the early look on '26, but big picture, is there really any incremental benefit from the new RNG investments in that EBITDA number? Is that going to be more of a '27 number? And then based on what we know today, where should that green CapEx come in for '25? And then what will remain kind of in '26 as you sit here today?
好的。完美。 1000萬美元。好的。知道了。羅恩,我很感謝你對 2026 年的展望,但從整體來看,新的 RNG 投資真的能為 EBITDA 數據帶來任何增量收益嗎?那會是 2027 年的數字嗎?那麼,根據我們目前所掌握的信息,2025 年的綠色資本支出應該在哪裡呢?那麼,當你今天坐在這裡時,1926 年的哪些東西會保留下來呢?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, Tyler. So first off, there is no incremental R&D revenue or EBITDA of any amount materially in the balance to '25 guidance or in the '26 first look, okay? Nothing there because most of our projects are time to come online at some point during the fourth quarter. So there could be a de minimis amount maybe a couple of months in '26. So that benefit is really not until '27 in revenue, EBITDA and margin.
是的,泰勒。首先,在2025年的績效指引或2026年的初步展望中,研發收入或EBITDA均未出現任何實質的增量,懂嗎?目前還沒有任何消息,因為我們的大部分專案都要到第四季的某個時候才會上線。所以,2026 年可能會有極少量的情況,也許持續幾個月。所以,這種好處要到 2027 年才能真正體現在營收、EBITDA 和利潤率。
And we originally thought we'd spend between $100 million and $150 million in CapEx on R&D in '25. That number is now probably between $75 million and $125 million. So maybe stepping down about $25 million to $35 million. So there could be $25 million to $50 million of green CapEx rollover into '26.
我們最初認為,2025 年在研發方面的資本支出將在 1 億至 1.5 億美元之間。這個數字現在可能在7500萬美元到1.25億美元之間。所以,或許會減薪2500萬到3500萬美元。因此,可能有 2,500 萬至 5,000 萬美元的綠色資本支出結轉到 2026 年。
Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst
Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst
Okay. Excellent. Very helpful. And then I just want to make sure that I've got your commentary about 26 margins. So I think you said a more normalized year next year. That is assuming outsized expansion in solid waste offset based on what we know today by dilutive M&A and dilutive commodities. Is that right?
好的。出色的。很有幫助。然後我只是想確認一下,我是否已經收到您關於第 26 頁邊距的評論。所以我覺得你的意思是指明年情況會比較正常。這是假設固體廢棄物的超大擴張(根據我們目前所知)會被稀釋性併購和稀釋性商品所抵銷。是這樣嗎?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
That's exactly right. You have it exactly right. Right now, we believe commodities, if they stayed where they are, about a 20 to 25 basis point dilutive impact on a year-to-year basis and M&A, call that $10 to $15 million. So you're somewhere between 30 and 40 that you're overcoming. And -- so that puts you in that 20 to 40 normalized, which tells you what the underlying is doing.
完全正確。你說得完全正確。目前我們認為,如果大宗商品價格保持不變,每年將產生約 20 至 25 個基點的稀釋影響,而併購活動則可能帶來 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元的收益。所以你正在克服的困難介於 30 到 40 個之間。這樣一來,你的指數就處於 20 到 40 的標準化區間內,這可以告訴你底層市場的情況。
Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst
Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst
Yes. Perfect. Okay. And my last one is just a big picture question, and you touched on it, Ron. There's obviously a ton going on in the world of technology. And it sounds like you guys and quite frankly, the industry at large, probably stand to benefit from maybe some of the productivity that AI might bring. But can you just talk a little bit about your strategy where you are in the journey what kind of tools you're talking about? And is that something that we should see a gift that gives over the next, call it, half decade? Or how should we just think about that broadly? Appreciate it.
是的。完美的。好的。我的最後一個問題是一個比較宏觀的問題,羅恩,你剛才也談到了這一點。科技界顯然發生了很多事情。聽起來你們,坦白說,整個產業,都可能從人工智慧帶來的生產力提升中受益。您能否簡單談談您的策略,目前處於哪個階段,您正在使用哪些工具?我們應該把這看作是未來五年內能帶來的禮物嗎?或者我們應該如何從更廣闊的視角來思考這個問題?謝謝。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Sure. Well, Obviously, we are mostly talking about two things. We're mostly talking about data aggregation amongst historically disparate systems and apps which are now being aggregated and can speak to each other and provide data analytics that we really haven't had to this degree. And then the utilization and overlay in multiple areas of AI and to analyze that data and help us in areas of pricing, customer engagement, route optimization, maintenance projectability and a variety of other things.
是的。當然。很顯然,我們主要在談論兩件事。我們主要討論的是歷史上彼此獨立的系統和應用程式之間的數據聚合,這些系統和應用程式現在被聚合在一起,可以相互通信,並提供我們以前從未達到的數據分析水平。然後,人工智慧可以在多個領域中利用和疊加,分析這些數據,幫助我們進行定價、客戶互動、路線優化、維護預測以及其他各種方面的工作。
We laid out in late '24 sort of a three-year, call it, total digitization of the organization by the end. So we are now -- we call that 1/3 through that. We focused heavily on pricing and budgeting, forecasting and planning through the use of AI and data aggregation in '25. For '26, we will be doing the same on sort of route optimization. As we've mentioned working to sort of, what I'd call, ways for garbage, if you will, from a routing a real-time routing standpoint rather than a static routing as well as a dramatically enhanced mobile application and a complete revamp of our maintenance software and its integration to our operating system.
我們在 2024 年底制定了一個為期三年的計劃,到年底實現組織的全面數位化。所以我們現在——我們稱之為完成了三分之一。2025年,我們專注於利用人工智慧和資料聚合技術進行定價和預算、預測和規劃。對於 2026 年,我們將採取相同的路線優化措施。正如我們之前提到的,我們正在努力尋找某種方法,我稱之為垃圾處理方法,從路由的角度來說,我們採用的是實時路由而不是靜態路由,同時我們還大幅改進了移動應用程序,並徹底改造了我們的維護軟體及其與操作系統的集成。
And then there are additional plans for '27. So I think those -- I think it's too early to know exactly what that does margin-wise. It's obviously they are all a margin lift and continuing to help us with outsized margin expansion. But I can tell you the first two to three things that we have done in late '24 and '25, there's been a very, very rapid payback on those investments. And and we're surprised at the magnitude of the impacts, favorably surprised.
此外,還有針對 2027 年的額外方案。所以我覺得——現在要確切知道這會對利潤率產生什麼影響還為時過早。顯然,它們都能提升利潤率,並持續幫助我們實現超額利潤率擴張。但我可以告訴你,我們在 2024 年底和 2025 年所做的前兩三件事,這些投資的回報非常非常迅速。而且,我們對這些影響的程度感到驚訝,是驚喜的那種驚訝。
So I would tell you that looking out, as you said, maybe over a half decade or four- to five-year period, we should continue to see those. And I'd say those impacts are more in the two- to three-year period. we should see most of the benefit from.
所以我想說,正如你所說,展望未來,或許在未來五到四、五年內,我們應該會繼續看到這些現象。而且我認為這些影響會在兩到三年內顯現,我們應該會在這段時間內看到大部分好處。
Operator
Operator
Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer & Company.
Noah Kaye,奧本海默公司。
Noah Kaye - Analyst
Noah Kaye - Analyst
I'll pick up on Tyler's last question around really the runway for accelerating or improving pricing retention from some of these changes in tools. What are you specifically thinking about in price for based off of the restricted and where you expect to be on open? And how much does this effort contribute to that?
我將接續泰勒的最後一個問題,透過這些工具的變化,能否真正加速或改善定價留存率。根據限制條件和您預計開放後的價格,您具體考慮的價格是什麼?而這項努力對實現這一目標究竟有多大貢獻?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Well, no, I'd actually start in '25 because we already said that we've actually been using this tool and been applying it this year, deploying it this year. And as you'll recall, we had initially guided to pricing of around 6%, and we've ended up giving you an updated guidance for 6.5%. And so that improved pricing retention, we would attribute in part to the tool that we've been deploying. And we'd also acknowledge that those improving metrics on the operating stats like having our seats full and retention better, lower turnover, that also contributes to pricing retention.
不,我其實會從 2025 年開始,因為我們已經說過,我們今年一直在使用這個工具,並在今年應用和部署它。您應該還記得,我們最初給出的定價指引約為 6%,而最終我們給出的更新指導為 6.5%。因此,價格保留率的提高,部分歸功於我們一直在部署的工具。我們也要承認,營運統計數據的改善,例如座位滿座率提高、客戶留存率提高、人員流動率降低,這些都有助於提高客戶留存率。
So I'd say that gives you a flavor for the kind of benefit we're seeing, a portion of it we would attribute to that pool. So then when we think longer term, we think about really the life cycle of the customer and be able to hold on to customers by putting in smart price increases and minimizing the amount of customer loss and of course, rollbacks. And so we think of it as taking some pressure off using the pricing lever to drive that price cost spread and being incremental as we've demonstrated this year for the possibility that there's upside when we go into a year.
所以我覺得這能讓你體會到我們所看到的這個好處,其中一部分我們認為要歸功於這個資金池。所以,當我們考慮長遠發展時,我們會真正考慮客戶的生命週期,並透過合理的漲價和最大限度地減少客戶流失以及回滾來留住客戶。因此,我們認為這是透過價格槓桿來減輕一些壓力,從而推動價格成本差距,並且像我們今年所證明的那樣,逐步提高價格成本差距,以期在新的一年裡獲得成長空間。
To your specific question about how we're thinking about next year, as you know, we think in terms of the two pieces at the CPI-linked markets, and that's a lagging CPI adjustment, which over the past year, those increases have been smaller than in the prior year. So you'd expect less price in those CPI-linked markets. And then the real question becomes what are cost pressures doing and how much price do we need in our unrestricted markets and then how effective are those price increases.
關於您提出的我們如何考慮明年的具體問題,如您所知,我們考慮的是與 CPI 掛鉤的市場中的兩個部分,即滯後 CPI 調整,在過去一年中,這些增長幅度小於前一年。因此,在那些與消費者物價指數掛鉤的市場中,價格會更低。那麼真正的問題就變成了成本壓力會產生什麼影響,在不受限制的市場中我們需要多少價格,以及這些價格上漲的效果如何。
And so I think all of that could sort of inform you directionally that the expectation is needing less price in '26 than we did in '25. But of course, the particular the specifics of that, we'll give when we give our guidance in February.
因此,我認為所有這些因素都可以大致表明,2026 年的價格預期會比 2025 年低。當然,具體細節我們將在二月發布指導意見時給出。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And no, I would just add that the expectation of still 150 to 200 basis point price cost spread, is directionally how you should think of that and our confidence level of achieving that, I think, has improved with the utilization of the AI tool that we've been working on for the past year plus. So if we have a lower gross price and a higher net price with lower customer churn, we believe that can ultimately pull 50 to 100 basis points out of that reported volume number, meaning improving it. because right now, we're getting a trade-off of probably up to 1 point for up to about 100 to 150 basis points more that we're pushing price.
不,我只想補充一點,價格成本價差預計仍將保持在 150 至 200 個基點,這就是你應該如何看待這個問題的方向。我認為,隨著我們過去一年多來一直在開發的 AI 工具的運用,我們實現這一目標的信心水平已經有所提高。所以,如果我們能降低毛利率、提高淨利率,同時降低客戶流失率,我們相信最終可以讓報告的銷售數據提升50到100個基點,也就是改善銷售量。因為目前,我們為了提高價格,可能只能獲得最多1個百分點的銷售提升,而價格卻要額外提高100到150個基點。
So as we can pull that down and offset that churn, that is -- that layers for us in the organic growth number as well.
所以,如果我們能降低流失率並抵消這種流失,那麼——這也為我們帶來了有機成長數據。
Noah Kaye - Analyst
Noah Kaye - Analyst
Very interesting. You mentioned I guess, the $50 million potential year-over-year benefit from lower green CapEx to free cash flow in '26. Just what are some of the other puts and takes that we should be thinking about in our models for free cash flow conversion?
很有意思。我想你提到了,2026 年綠色資本支出減少,自由現金流可能比前一年增加 5,000 萬美元。在自由現金流轉換模型中,我們還應該考慮哪些其他的買賣操作?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Well, of course, no, we need to get through this year to -- so -- we know the timing of CapEx, we've talked about taking advantage of bonus depreciation by potentially adding CapEx as we exit '25 for fleet and equipment. You should expect us to be looking at that. That will inform our thinking about '26. As we said, the green CapEx will inform it and ultimately what we guide to for EBITDA. All of those things will together inform our thinking about what the moving pieces are for '26.
當然,不,我們需要熬過今年——所以——我們知道資本支出的時間安排,我們已經討論過利用額外折舊,在2025年底增加車隊和設備的資本支出。你應該預料到我們會關注此事。這將影響我們對2026年的思考。正如我們所說,綠色資本支出將影響 EBITDA 的預期,並最終決定 EBITDA 的預測。所有這些因素加在一起,將影響我們對 2026 年各種變數的思考。
Operator
Operator
Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.
科納克·古普塔,加拿大豐業銀行。
Konark Gupta - Analyst
Konark Gupta - Analyst
I just want to kind of follow on the last question about free cash flow. So I think one of the other moving parts, I think the last couple of years, at least, has been the Chiquita-related outlays. So can you update us on where the Chiquita situation today is in terms of your remediation obligations? And how do you expect those outlays to trend in the next year or so? And then also maybe the update on where the litigation currently sits there.
我想就上一個關於自由現金流的問題再問一點。所以我認為,至少在過去幾年裡,另一個影響因素是與 Chiquita 相關的支出。那麼,您能否向我們介紹一下目前奇基塔事件中,您在履行補救義務方面的情況?您預計這些支出在未來一年左右的時間內會呈現怎樣的趨勢?此外,或許還可以更新一下該訴訟目前的進展。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. I'll take a crack at this for you. So we would tell you that overall, the mitigation and treatment of the reaction or what we call the TLF is actually going about as we expected or maybe in ways even a little better. We continue to make progress on the removal of the leachate from the landfill that is being generated by the reaction. And that amount continues to drop quarter to quarter. We keep at handing over 400,000 gallons a day, and we are now handling about 220,000 to 240,000 gallons a day in real time.
當然。我來幫你試試。因此,我們可以告訴大家,總體而言,緩解和治療這種反應(或我們稱之為 TLF)實際上進展順利,甚至在某些方面還略好一些。我們持續推進清除垃圾掩埋場中由反應產生的滲濾液的工作。而且這一數字每季都在持續下降。我們一直保持著每天輸送 40 萬加侖的水量,而現在我們每天即時處理的水量約為 22 萬至 24 萬加侖。
And at that 220,000 to 240,000 gallons a day, we are reducing the level of leachate within the landfill itself, which tells us that we are on the back side of the reaction curve because we're now effectively outrunning the reaction generation, whereas a year ago, the reaction generation was outrunning us. So those are some very good signs. We have completely capped with about 42 acres of synthetic liner, the reaction area. We have voluntarily agreed to cap an additional 50 acres over the next three years preventatively and at the request of agencies, and we agree with that.
每天處理 22 萬至 24 萬加侖的滲濾液,可以降低垃圾掩埋場內的滲濾液水平,這表明我們已經處於反應曲線的後半段,因為我們現在有效地超過了反應的產生速度,而一年前,反應的產生速度超過了我們的處理速度。這些都是非常好的跡象。我們已經用大約 42 英畝的合成襯墊完全覆蓋了反應區。我們已自願同意在未來三年內,出於預防目的並應相關機構的要求,額外限制 50 英畝土地的開發,我們對此表示同意。
And we are complete drilling of all of the extraction wells and implementing all of the submersible pumps to remove the liquid. So -- and we have dropped by over 95% the registered odor complaints that are monitored through local agencies and the state of California Air Board. So I would tell you that the reaction handling is going as expected or even better on that front. At this point, the outlays are running somewhat ahead of our expectations because we've taken additional steps to decrease the impacted area and accelerated some of those steps on our leachate treatment activities.
我們已經完成了所有抽水井的鑽探工作,並安裝了所有潛水泵來抽取液體。因此,透過地方機構和加州空氣品質委員會監測到的已登記氣味投訴減少了 95% 以上。所以我可以告訴你,反應處理方面進展順利,甚至比預期還要好。目前,支出略微超出了我們的預期,因為我們採取了額外的措施來減少受影響的區域,並加快了滲濾液處理活動中的一些措施。
We continue to believe and expect these efforts and that others that we're pursuing will and are resulting in decreasing outlays given the progress that we've made. So that's really the reaction front, and then you have the sort of the whole separately regulatory compliance and litigation that comes along with this type of event. And of course, we're not going to comment on litigation because we are in a public forum, but I'll just tell you that, that's probably expected as you would expect in something like this. So that's really the update on where we're at.
我們仍然相信並期望,鑑於我們取得的進展,這些努力以及我們正在進行的其他努力將會並正在減少支出。所以這才是真正的反應層面,然後還有與此類事件相關的各種監管合規和訴訟問題。當然,我們不會對訴訟發表評論,因為我們身處公共論壇,但我只想說,這種情況在所難免,正如你所預料的那樣。以上就是我們目前的最新進展。
Konark Gupta - Analyst
Konark Gupta - Analyst
And that's helpful, Ron. And just in terms of guide posts around the outlays for the Chiquita this year versus what you can expect maybe next year?
那很有幫助,羅恩。那麼,就今年 Chiquita 的支出與明年可能出現的支出相比,有哪些指導性指標呢?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Well, we're not yet prepared to outline that. We will obviously do so in February when we give our full guidance. But what I can tell you is that -- as we said, we're somewhat ahead at this point right now this year. We don't necessarily view that negatively. We have no reason to expect as we sit here today, that the total outlay that we have outlined when we originally took an impairment and a charge when we closed the site for our post closure has any material change to the totals.
是的。嗯,我們目前還不打算詳細說明。我們顯然會在二月發布完整指導意見時這樣做。但我可以告訴你們的是——正如我們所說,今年到目前為止,我們還是略微領先一些。我們並不一定對此持否定態度。就目前而言,我們沒有任何理由預期,我們最初在關閉該站點時提列減值準備和費用時所概述的總支出,在關閉後會有任何實質性變化。
Konark Gupta - Analyst
Konark Gupta - Analyst
Okay. That's really helpful. And just to wrap up quick on the volume side of things. I think heading into the third quarter, the expectation was volumes to be a little bit worse than what you guys have seen in the first half. So just trying to understand like if you can parse out some of the key underlying drivers in the volumes here with respect to macro the Chiquita obviously overlap because you shut down the landfill in Q4 last year. And also anything else in the volume that you can call out and expect in Q4?
好的。這真的很有幫助。最後簡單總結一下音量方面的狀況。我認為進入第三季時,大家預期銷售量會比上半年略差一些。所以,我只是想了解一下,能否分析出這裡銷售的一些關鍵潛在驅動因素,就宏觀層面而言,Chiquita 顯然存在重疊,因為你們去年第四季度關閉了垃圾掩埋場。此外,您還能特別指出第四季銷售方面有哪些值得期待的內容嗎?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. So to your point, coming into Q3, we've seen some incremental weakness at the end of Q2. And our expectation was that perhaps there was really no seasonal ramp, and we did see a bit of a seasonal ramp, but we would describe it as muted. I think it was up about 1.5% sequentially, which is less than half of what you would typically expect to see. So some muted improvements. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, Special waste was up about 10%.
當然。正如您所說,進入第三季後,我們看到第二季末出現了一些漸進式的疲軟。我們原本預期可能真的沒有季節性成長,雖然我們確實看到了一些季節性成長,但我們認為這種成長並不明顯。我認為它環比上漲了約 1.5%,這還不到通常預期漲幅的一半。所以有一些細微的改善。正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的,特殊廢棄物增加了約 10%。
I'd always hesitate to generalize from something that's event-driven and pretty lumpy since last year special waste was down 10% in the quarter, but it was encouraging to see less negative trends, again, as I mentioned in the remarks, in C&D. So a little better than it had been in prior quarters.
我總是猶豫是否要根據受事件驅動且波動較大的情況進行概括,因為去年該季度特殊廢物下降了 10%,但令人鼓舞的是,看到負面趨勢有所減少,正如我在評論中提到的,建築和拆除廢物再次出現負面趨勢。比前幾季略有好轉。
Again, I wouldn't generalize from this because also, as I've mentioned, some of it is just timing. And we had expectations about what the back half of the year could look like. And if some of it occurs in Q3, that means you shouldn't assume it happens again in Q4, again, given the event-driven nature of the business. But encouraging to see that things aren't incrementally worse. Arguably, this is our eighth quarter or even more of just kind of flattish activity levels and so you're not seeing the creation of new volumes.
再次強調,我不會以此為普遍規律,因為正如我之前提到的,其中一些因素只是時機問題。我們對下半年的發展前景有所期待。如果其中一些事件發生在第三季度,那麼考慮到業務的事件驅動性質,你不應該假設它會在第四季度再次發生。但令人欣慰的是,情況並沒有逐漸惡化。可以說,這已經是我們連續第八個季度甚至更長時間處於較為平穩的活動水平,因此你沒有看到新的業務量出現。
Operator
Operator
Chris Murray, ATB Capital Markets.
Chris Murray,ATB Capital Markets。
Chris Murray - Analyst
Chris Murray - Analyst
Maybe just -- maybe just thinking about volumes as we go into next year. And just if you think about that we're going to be rolling off Chiquita, which has been a pretty big headwind if I think about the kind of the revenue guide kind of mid-single digits with kind of, call it, 3 percentage type inflation numbers, can you just really give us an idea how you're thinking about getting to that kind of mid-single-digit number? And does that include any sort of expectation for any volume growth kind of in MSW year over year?
或許——或許只是在展望明年時考慮銷售問題。想想看,我們即將擺脫 Chiquita 的影響,這給我們帶來了相當大的阻力。考慮到收入預期只有個位數的中等水平,通貨膨脹率大概在 3% 左右,您能否具體說說您打算如何實現這個個位數的中等水平增長?這是否包括對MSW銷量逐年增長的任何預期?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure, Chris. So of course, we're not giving guidance. And these were broad strokes, but at a very high level, a way to think about it since -- as you know, we think in terms of price-led organic growth and as I mentioned, earlier, we think in terms of how much price we need and whether or not we're seeing incremental headwinds from inflation or we're seeing any easing. And given the fact that, as we've talked about the underlying margin expansion we've enjoyed because of the self-help measures and the fact that trends aren't getting worse based on what we're seeing right now, one could envision that the pieces would have price that's not as positive as it was in the current environment, and there might be volumes that are not as negative.
當然可以,克里斯。所以,我們當然不會提供指導。這些都是概括性的描述,但從很高的層面來說,這是一種思考方式,因為——正如你所知,我們考慮的是價格驅動的有機增長,正如我之前提到的,我們考慮的是我們需要多少價格,以及我們是否看到通膨帶來的額外阻力,或者我們是否看到任何緩解。鑑於我們已經討論過,由於自助措施,我們享受到了潛在的利潤率擴張,而且根據我們目前所看到的趨勢,情況並沒有惡化,因此可以預見,這些產品的價格不會像在當前環境下那樣樂觀,銷量也不會像之前那樣糟糕。
And the net impact of those two would get you to be approaching the kind of numbers we're talking about. And then you layer on the M&A with some offsets. And so I'd say that's the way to think about the building blocks. And of course, we'll have better information and insights in February when we actually give our guidance.
而這兩者的淨影響將使你接近我們正在討論的那種數字。然後,你再疊加一些併購交易,並輔以一些抵銷措施。所以我覺得這就是思考構成要素的方式。當然,到了二月我們正式發布指導意見時,我們會掌握更準確的資訊和更深入的見解。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And Chris, I would tell you that, look, we have said that our cost this year have been running. Of course, they were higher at the beginning of the year, coming down throughout the year. We point to labor because that's the largest cost item. As we exit the year, we are approaching going below 4% in labor. It was 4.1% in Q3. And our other costs are running just below that. So we are -- we believe that next year that, that labor number runs closer to the mid-3s, maybe 3.5%.
克里斯,我想告訴你,我們說過,我們今年的成本一直在上漲。當然,年初時這些數值較高,之後逐年下降。我們之所以指出人力成本,是因為這是最大的成本項目。隨著年底臨近,我們的勞動成本成長率即將低於 4%。第三季為 4.1%。其他成本也略低於這個數字。所以我們相信——明年,勞動市場數字會更接近 3% 左右,也許 3.5%。
So again, we've talked about maintaining the type of spread we've had this year in price. So assuming that is what continues in the cost, I think you can get yourself pretty close.
所以,我們再次強調,要維持今年以來我們所擁有的價格價差。所以假設成本繼續保持這個水平,我認為你可以相當接近目標了。
Chris Murray - Analyst
Chris Murray - Analyst
Yes. No, that's helpful. And then maybe taking like the giant kind of step and into '27, assuming that you kind of get the normal kind of inflection, at least the thinking has been, as we've been breaking in these RNG investments, and thank you for the clarification. It's probably going to be a Q4 '26 thing, but as we get into '27. It was -- I guess the expectation was always there would be about $1 of EBITDA for every dollar you sort of put into the program. But if you just have any updates and any thoughts around how we should maybe frame that as we think about maybe those years, that would be helpful.
是的。不,這很有幫助。然後,或許可以邁出巨大的一步,進入 2027 年,假設你能得到正常的轉折點,至少我們一直在考慮這一點,因為我們一直在進行這些 RNG 投資,感謝你的澄清。這可能是 2026 年第四季的事情,但到了 2027 年就會發生了。我想,大家的預期一直是,每投入一美元到專案中,就能獲得大約一美元的 EBITDA。但如果您有任何最新消息,或者對我們應該如何看待那幾年有什麼想法,那將對我們很有幫助。
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. So Chris, we've talked over the past couple of years about the fact that, that dollar of investment had grown and the fact that we've seen the cost creep and the delays on these projects and that has continued, and it's contributed to the expectations that those don't come online until late '26 or early '27. The other major factor driving that equation is what RIN values are. And of course, at one for one was in an environment of $2.50 to $3 RINs. And if we're sitting at $2.25 and have been below that, that certainly alters our expectations. And you could see the 1:1 moving closer to 2:1 depending on what those ultimate values are.
當然。所以克里斯,過去幾年我們一直在討論這樣一個事實:投資額增長了,但成本卻不斷攀升,這些項目也出現了延誤,這種情況一直在持續,這也導致人們預期這些項目要到 2026 年底或 2027 年初才能上線。影響該等式的另一個主要因素是 RIN 值是什麼。當然,一對一交易的環境是 RIN 價格在 2.50 美元到 3 美元之間。如果股價目前在 2.25 美元,而之前一直低於這個價格,那肯定會改變我們的預期。你可以看到 1:1 的比例逐漸接近 2:1,這取決於最終數值是多少。
Operator
Operator
Kevin Chiang, CIBC.
Kevin Chiang,加拿大帝國商業銀行。
Kevin Chiang - Analyst
Kevin Chiang - Analyst
First of all, congratulations on the progress you're making on some of these safety metrics. I guess as you think about 2026, I'm wondering if you start seeing the benefits of less of a headwind, I guess, from the risk management inflation you're seeing in the 2025 results? And then I did notice Canada actually had -- at least you called out in Q3, risk management was actually a tailwind to your margin. Just wondering what's happening in Canada from a risk management cost perspective versus what you're seeing in the US
首先,恭喜你們在這些安全指標上的進展。我想,當您展望 2026 年時,您會不會開始看到不利因素減少的好處?我想,這大概是因為您在 2025 年的業績中看到了風險管理通膨的影響吧?然後我注意到,加拿大實際上——至少你在第三季指出——風險管理實際上對你的利潤率起到了推動作用。我想知道從風險管理成本的角度來看,加拿大的情況與美國的情況有何不同。
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I think that was specifically rated to a comeback on workers' comp episodically, we get a credit, and so that can cause some lumpiness quarter to quarter. All of our regions are seeing improvement in safety. And to your question about when we see the benefit of risk management costs, again, given the nature of the lagging nature and the fact that it's statistically driven or actuarially driven and clean development periods impact or influence how long it takes to see. We'd always be cautious about putting too fine a point on it. But even in our overall program costs, I'm optimistic that there's some benefits in '26 versus '25.
我認為這是專門針對工傷賠償金的複出而定的,我們會獲得一定的補償,所以這可能會導致季度業績出現一些波動。我們所有地區的安全狀況都在改善。至於你提出的何時才能看到風險管理成本的收益的問題,同樣,考慮到滯後性以及它是統計驅動或精算驅動的事實,而清晰的開發週期會影響或左右看到收益所需的時間。我們始終會謹慎對待這個問題,避免過度細究。但即便從整體專案成本來看,我樂觀地認為 2026 年相比 2025 年會有一些好處。
I think the key thing to take away, Kevin, is that we had talked about 100 basis points of margin expansion, and we're driving the kind of results you've seen in spite of the fact that it's not just that we haven't gotten the risk benefit, but it continues to be a headwind of 20 to 30 basis points in the quarter. So it gives you an idea of what unlocking it could do as we look ahead.
凱文,我認為最關鍵的是,我們之前討論過利潤率擴張 100 個基點,而我們取得的成果正是你所看到的,儘管我們不僅沒有獲得風險收益,而且本季度還持續面臨 20 到 30 個基點的不利因素。所以,這可以讓你了解解鎖它在未來會帶來什麼好處。
Kevin Chiang - Analyst
Kevin Chiang - Analyst
That's helpful. Maybe just on your Canada R360 opportunities. If I recall, you had some idled assets when you made the acquisition, I guess, from Secure. Just the where energy prices are, just how do you view that optionality, I guess? Is that still something that look to invest in to bring some of these facilities online? Or do you need a higher energy price to make that work?
那很有幫助。或許只是關於您在加拿大的 R360 專案機會。如果我沒記錯的話,你從 Secure 收購時,應該會有一些閒置資產。我想問的是,您如何看待能源價格的這個選擇權?你們是否仍打算投資,使其中一些設施投入營運?或者說,你需要更高的能源價格才能實現這一點?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Good recollection on that, Kevin. In fact, there were six idle assets when we closed the transaction 2.25 years ago or 2.5 years ago now. We have, in the course of 2025, invested in and opened two of those six. And that is actually something that helped us in Q3 at one of those facilities. Again, these are smaller facilities and smaller contributions, but they certainly were positive to volumes and our performance in Q3 and will be in Q4. We're going to assess each of the remaining four -- we reassess all the time.
是的。凱文,你對那件事記得真清楚。事實上,在我們 2.25 年前(也就是現在的 2.5 年前)完成交易時,有 6 項閒置資產。2025 年,我們已經投資並開設了其中六個項目中的兩個。而這其實對我們第三季在其中一家工廠的工作有所幫助。再次強調,這些設施規模較小,貢獻也較小,但它們對第三季的銷售和業績肯定有正面影響,對第四季也有正面影響。我們將對剩下的四個進行逐一評估——我們會不斷重新評估。
It isn't as much in Canada because it's a production-based business. It isn't as much the price of crude, although that is influential, no question. It's where there is new drilling activity and its proximity to facilities that you might have shuttered. So as activity moves amongst formations from time to time, and it moves much slower in Canada because they have much longer life wells. That will really affect when we open those additional facilities.
加拿大的情況沒那麼嚴重,因為這是一個以生產為基礎的產業。雖然原油價格確實有影響,但這並非決定性因素。那裡有新的鑽井活動,而且靠近你可能已經關閉的設施。因此,活動會不時地在不同的地層之間轉移,而加拿大的活動速度要慢得多,因為他們的油井壽命更長。這將對我們何時開放這些新增設施產生重大影響。
Kevin Chiang - Analyst
Kevin Chiang - Analyst
That's super helpful. And maybe if I could just fit one last one in here. Just any update on the newer commercial zones. It looks like they're going to open up to, I guess, the two Bronx regions, which I think you have I guess, the permit in those markets as well. Just how is that going? And if you're experiencing Queens, I guess as that test run has come to an end here.
這太有幫助了。或許我還能在這裡再加一個。請問有什麼關於新商業區的最新資訊嗎?看來他們打算向布朗克斯區的兩個地區開放,我想你們也應該已經獲得了這些市場的許可。進展如何?如果你正在體驗皇后區,我想這裡的試運行已經結束了。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. You are right. In fact, they have opened to additional zones, and we have permits in both, Kevin, to answer your question, they opened those October 1. So we're 2.5 weeks into it. It's going fairly well. And again, I would say about as expected. We didn't mention this in our commentary, but in the fourth quarter, we will be closing the large -- closing on the largest remaining transfer station in the Queens market that we have actually had under definitive agreement since -- back in April and May, and there's a complex regulatory process to get through in New York. And we have gotten through that process and gotten approval to close on that transfer station.
是的。你是對的。事實上,他們已經向其他區域開放,而且我們在這兩個區域都有許可證。凱文,回答你的問題,這些區域已於 10 月 1 日開放。現在已經過去兩個半星期了。一切進展順利。我再次表示,這基本上符合預期。我們在評論中沒有提到這一點,但在第四季度,我們將完成皇后區市場最大的剩餘轉運站的收尾工作——該轉運站是我們自四月和五月以來達成最終協議以來一直擁有的——而且在紐約還有一個複雜的監管程序需要完成。我們已經完成了那個流程,並獲得了收購該轉運站的批准。
And that really gives us one more leg in this jigsaw puzzle of how the franchise business comes together in New York City. So we are looking forward. We will have that open here -- well, we'll have it under ownership here in the fourth quarter. So we're making good progress. It's a scramble when they open these zones, but we are very, very well positioned for that with the magnitude and size of our sales force and our operating footprint there. So that -- I'd say that continues to play out about as expected, and we look forward to them rolling out the remaining zones over '26 and '27.
這確實讓我們在了解紐約市特許經營業務的運作方式這幅拼圖中又添了一塊。所以,我們充滿期待。我們將在這裡開放——嗯,我們將在第四季度將其交由我們所有。所以我們正在取得良好的進展。這些區域開放時肯定會引發一場爭奪戰,但憑藉我們龐大的銷售隊伍和在這些地區的營運規模,我們已經做好了非常非常有利的準備。所以——我認為事情的發展基本上符合預期,我們期待他們在 2026 年和 2027 年推出剩餘的區域。
Operator
Operator
Jim Schumm, TD Cowen.
吉姆·舒姆,TD Cowen。
James Schumm - Analyst
James Schumm - Analyst
Nice quarter. All my questions have been answered. I have just two quick ones for you, though. Are you seeing any issues obtaining new trucks? And do you think there will be any tariff impact next year? I know there was pretty much no impact this year.
不錯的街區。我所有的問題都已得到解答。不過,我這裡只有兩個簡單的問題想問你。您在採購新卡車方面遇到任何問題嗎?你認為明年會有關稅方面的影響嗎?我知道今年幾乎沒有任何影響。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, Jim, I mean, first off, I would tell you that we are really not seeing, and it's a good question because up until, I would tell you probably about mid this year, there was still some supply chain delay, but that has really eased. And in fact, we are in the market currently buying additional fleet that we're pulling into '25 because of availability of it and our desire to not only obtain it, but to take advantage of bonus depreciation with the change in law.
是的,吉姆,我的意思是,首先,我想告訴你,我們實際上並沒有看到這種情況,這是一個很好的問題,因為直到今年年中左右,供應鏈仍然存在一些延誤,但這種情況已經大大緩解了。事實上,我們目前正在市場上購買額外的車隊,這些車隊將在 2025 年投入使用,因為這些車隊的供應情況以及我們不僅想要獲得這些車隊,而且還想利用法律變更帶來的額外折舊優惠。
So no, we're really not. So I wouldn't want to use that as a reason we couldn't deliver on getting all of our vehicles. As far as tariffs, we are hearing from manufacturers that there's probably somewhere in the neighborhood of a 3 up to -- $3,000 up to about a $7,500 per truck impact because it affects different components of both the chassis and the bodies separately.
所以,不,我們真的不是。所以我不想以此為由,解釋我們為什麼無法交付所有車輛。至於關稅方面,我們從製造商那裡了解到,每輛卡車可能會受到 3,000 美元到 7,500 美元左右的影響,因為它分別影響底盤和車身的不同部件。
So I would tell you that, that is relatively de minimis in the total scheme of things, but there is some very small impact at this point in time in '26 going forward from the manufacturers.
所以我想說,從整體來看,這相對來說是微不足道的,但就目前而言,製造商對 2026 年及以後的發展確實產生了一些非常小的影響。
James Schumm - Analyst
James Schumm - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then you guys talked quite a bit about volume. And just maybe one more on that. From a volume standpoint next year, are there any major contracts that expire that you're likely to shed for next year now? I know that there's always going to be some, but I mean like large sort of needle movers, whether it be from Progressive or any other contracts.
好的。偉大的。然後你們也聊了很多關於音量的問題。或許還可以再補充一點。從交易量的角度來看,明年是否有任何即將到期的大合同,您現在可能會取消這些合約?我知道總是會有一些,但我指的是那種能產生重大影響的,無論是來自 Progressive 還是其他任何合約。
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Right. Understanding that there's always ins and outs. There's no significant chunky contract. And in fact, in Q4, the chunkier one that's been impacting this year, about 20 basis points that actually expired your anniversaries. And so it eases that shedding a little bit.
正確的。要明白凡事都有利弊。沒有金額龐大的合約。事實上,在第四季度,也就是今年影響較大的一個季度,大約有 20 個基點實際上導致你的周年紀念日到期。這樣可以稍微緩解掉髮。
Operator
Operator
Tobey Sommer, Truist.
Tobey Sommer,Truist。
Tobey Sommer - Analyst
Tobey Sommer - Analyst
With commodity prices in RINs recycling kind of being a headwind here for a period of time, does this influence an effect at all the way you think about the mix and exposure that you want to have within the portfolio and income statement in these buckets? And how much higher or lower do you think your exposure might be in three or five years?
由於 RINs 回收的商品價格在一段時間內構成不利因素,這是否會對您考慮投資組合和損益表中這些類別的組合和敞口產生任何影響?您認為三年或五年後您的風險敞口可能會增加多少或減少多少?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
So we think in terms of providing the service to our customers, and so it's really a function of the mix of markets where, as you can appreciate on the West Coast, where we've always had a high amount of diversion and therefore, recycling, and that's a great model for for that business. And then off of the West Coast in places where really, we've always taken kind of a slow-moving approach to get critical mass and then build out our own recycling facilities. Again, it's all based on meeting the customers' needs. And then we think about derisking it to the extent we can. That's why you've seen us build our own recycling facilities in certain markets and it's really coincided with the incremental technology in these facilities, and so that's made it a better business.
因此,我們從為客戶提供服務的角度來考慮問題,這實際上取決於市場的組合,正如您在西海岸所了解到的,那裡一直以來垃圾分流和回收利用率都很高,這對該行業來說是一個很好的模式。然後,在西海岸的一些地方,我們一直採取緩慢推進的方式,累積足夠的規模,然後建立我們自己的回收設施。再次強調,這一切都是為了滿足顧客的需求。然後我們會考慮盡可能降低風險。這就是為什麼你會看到我們在某些市場建立自己的回收設施,而這與這些設施中技術的進步也恰好吻合,因此這使得這項業務變得更好了。
And partnering with a nationwide broker to get better pricing through volumes, we've approached it as how do we mitigate the overall impact, make it a better underlying business and then communicate to you all what the sensitivity is with movement in commodity values because we've always maintained particularly given the fact that the recycled commodities running through our facilities come off of our own trucks, it really has to start with pricing it appropriately at the Street. And so that's what we focus on.
我們與一家全國性經紀公司合作,透過大量交易獲得更優惠的價格。我們採取的策略是,如何減輕整體影響,使其成為一項更好的基礎業務,然後向大家傳達商品價格波動的敏感性,因為我們一直堅持認為,特別是考慮到我們工廠處理的回收商品來自我們自己的卡車,一切都必須從在市場上合理定價開始。所以這就是我們關注的重點。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And last thing I'd say, Tobey, is with regard to that. And if you think about our -- I'm going to use this word growth algorithm where we have predominantly price-led organic growth. It obviously, if that's the case, your percentage of commodities will naturally drop over time mathematically. And unless your M&A is materially outpacing in a year your price-led organic growth. And it has been running about the same or maybe a little under.
最後我想說的是,托比,關於那件事。如果你想想我們的——我將使用「成長演算法」這個詞——我們主要依靠價格驅動的內生成長。顯然,如果情況真是如此,從數學角度來看,你的商品佔比自然會隨著時間的推移而下降。除非你的併購活動在一年內大幅超過你的價格驅動型內生成長。它的運作情況一直差不多,或者可能略低一些。
So I think over time, it is much more likely that the percentage of things that are linked to a commodity that has some market volatility continues to drop as a percentage of revenue in generalities.
所以我認為,隨著時間的推移,與具有一定市場波動性的商品相關的收入佔總收入的比例很可能會繼續下降。
Tobey Sommer - Analyst
Tobey Sommer - Analyst
And I wanted to ask a question about the great labor retention and cascading positive financial impacts on the income statement. Much of a margin impact sort of delta is there between the current trend, which is phenomenal and what you might consider to be normal because should the labor market ever kind of change here and start to improve, there may be a little bit of giveback for the industry and the company.
我想問一個關於員工留任率高以及由此對損益表產生的連鎖正面財務影響的問題。當前趨勢(非常驚人)與你可能認為的正常情況之間存在很大的利潤率影響差異,因為如果勞動力市場發生某種變化並開始改善,行業和公司可能會得到一些回落。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Well, I would characterize it in this way. We have -- originally, when we went down this path, we said, hey, there's about 100 basis points of margin expansion that can be unlocked over a two- to three-year period as we achieve our turnover reduction goals. And we said that, that doesn't show up in just one line item, it sort of shows up in 7 or 8 at 10 to 15 basis points per line item. And that has happened. We are about 2/3 through, I'd call it, 65 to 70 basis points of that unlock has been achieved.
是的。嗯,我會這樣描述它。最初,當我們走上這條道路時,我們說,嘿,隨著我們實現降低員工流動率的目標,在兩到三年內可以釋放大約 100 個基點的利潤率擴張空間。我們說過,這不會只體現在一個專案裡,而是體現在 7 到 8 個專案裡,每個專案有 10 到 15 個基點。而這確實發生了。我們已經完成了大約三分之二,可以說已經實現了 65 到 70 個基點的解鎖。
Now here is the thing. We've actually achieved 130 basis points because we've overcome the margin headwinds of things that have affected against us, such as drop a commodities RINs as we've talked about and increases in risk from prior period severity. So we've still got another 1/3 to go to get that at 100, but that would actually put it at closer to about $160 million to $170 million is what we would have achieved through that.
事情就是這樣。我們實際上已經實現了 130 個基點的利潤率提升,因為我們克服了對我們不利的因素帶來的利潤率逆風,例如我們之前討論過的商品 RINs 下降以及前期嚴重性帶來的風險增加。所以,我們離目標100還差三分之一,但那樣的話,我們實際上能達到的金額應該要接近1.6億到1.7億美元。
So we believe you'll see the vast majority of that finish out over the course of '26. And then if there is, to use your word, additional give back because there was some labor softening, that would be determined. But I will tell you that, look, you're always in the market to hire the best quality people. And even in the time of labor softening, best quality people in this in this economy have opportunities. So I wouldn't think of not flexing downward. I would just think of it as being more stabilized.
所以我們相信,絕大多數專案將在 2026 年完成。然後,如果,用你的話來說,因為勞動市場出現一些疲軟,需要額外補償,那也會確定。但我要告訴你的是,你永遠需要招募最優秀的人才。即使在勞動市場疲軟的時期,在這個經濟環境下,最優秀的人才仍然有機會。所以我不會想到不向下彎曲。我覺得它應該會比較穩定一些。
Operator
Operator
Sabahat Khan, RBC Capital Markets.
Sabahat Khan,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。
Sabahat Khan - Analyst
Sabahat Khan - Analyst
Just a quick clarification on the margin and maybe a bit more of a detailed one. If we caught it right, I think you were saying about 50 to 80 bps of underlying margin improvement, offsetting about 30 to 40 bps of headwinds, one, did I catch that correct? And secondly, is this just more kind of price cost spread and benefits of the employee sort of safety and all the retention-related benefits? Or are there kind of other benefits that you expect, maybe even if you think about two, three years, kind of where are the some of the margin levers that we should look at?
簡單澄清一下邊緣部分,或許可以更詳細地解釋一下。如果我們理解正確的話,我想您是說基礎利潤率提高了 50 到 80 個基點,抵消了 30 到 40 個基點的不利因素,我理解對嗎?其次,這是否只是價格成本分攤和員工福利(例如安全保障和所有與員工保留相關的福利)的另一種形式?或者,您期望獲得其他方面的利益?即使從長遠來看,例如兩三年後,我們該關注哪些利潤槓桿?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
So just to make sure we're all saying the same thing. We think of normalized margin expansion in the 20 to 40 basis point range. So however you net to that number is the right way to think about being driven by that underlying solid base margin expansion. You've seen us deliver underlying solid waste margin expansion for the past several quarters. and acknowledging that there are headwinds from commodities, which we said is, call it, 20-ish, 25 basis points, and that acquisitions are dilutive and would be expected to continue to be, to the extent anyone's layering more deals, of course, we wouldn't encourage that. But just need to be mindful of those dynamics.
所以,為了確保我們表達的是同一個意思。我們認為正常化利潤率擴張幅度應在 20 至 40 個基點之間。所以,無論你最終得出什麼結果,這都是由堅實的基礎利潤率擴張所驅動的正確思路。過去幾個季度,你們已經看到我們實現了固體廢棄物業務利潤率的持續成長。我們也承認大宗商品價格上漲帶來了不利影響,我們之前說過,這種影響大約在 20 到 25 個基點左右。此外,我們也意識到收購會稀釋利潤,而且預計這種情況還會持續下去。當然,如果有人進行更多收購,我們並不鼓勵這種做法。但需要注意這些動態變化。
So I think we're all saying the same thing, but that would just be the clarification there. And again, in terms of what's driving the underlying margin expansion, again, we go into any year, think of that price/cost spread and the opportunity to do better than that because of the self-help measures whether it's on pricing retention or employee retention and the cost benefits associated with that, including those lagging benefits from risk. But any of the granularity on the drivers, we'll certainly look forward to talking about in February when we give our guidance. We appreciate the opportunity to communicate at a very high level broad strokes how we're thinking about next year.
所以我覺得我們說的其實是同一件事,但這只是需要澄清的地方。再說一遍,就推動基本利潤率擴張的因素而言,我們每年都會考慮價格/成本差,以及由於採取了自助措施(無論是價格留存還是員工留存)而有機會做得更好,以及相關的成本效益,包括那些滯後於風險的收益。但關於驅動因素的任何細節,我們肯定會在二月發布指導意見時進行討論。我們非常感謝有機會以非常宏觀的方式與大家交流我們對明年的設想。
Sabahat Khan - Analyst
Sabahat Khan - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then just within that 7% growth number in the E&P, I think you mentioned there's a small facility that added as well. Is there any way to quantify what the sort of an annual run rate benefit from a facility like that might be?
好的。偉大的。然後,在勘探與生產領域 7% 的成長率中,我想你也提到過,還有一家小型工廠也實現了成長。有沒有辦法量化像這樣的設施每年能帶來的利益?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
The annual contribution from a facility like that is probably in the $3 million revenue range and $1.5 million to $2 million EBITDA range.
像這樣的設施每年的收入可能在 300 萬美元左右,EBITDA 可能在 150 萬美元到 200 萬美元之間。
Sabahat Khan - Analyst
Sabahat Khan - Analyst
Great. And then lastly, I think there's a comment in -- within this quarter, the result there is an amount related to a landfill. Presumably, it's something different than the Chiquita landfill. But should we assume that this was just sort of like a one-off? Or is there any sort of bookends you'd want to put on some amount like that? Or should we just see this as a one-off remediation type cost that was incurred in the quarter?
偉大的。最後,我認為還有一條評論——在本季度,結果中有一筆與垃圾掩埋場相關的款項。想必這與奇基塔垃圾掩埋場有所不同。但我們是否應該認為這只是一次偶然事件呢?或者,對於這樣的金額,你有什麼想要設定的界線嗎?或者我們應該將其視為本季發生的一次性補救費用?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. Thanks. Nothing to do with Chiquita. It's a one-off as I said, I mean it's just a timing difference in commissioning and disposal well on some incremental costs in the meantime.
是的。謝謝。與Chiquita無關。正如我所說,這只是一次性的,我的意思是,只是調試和處置井的時間差異,以及在此期間產生的一些額外成本。
Operator
Operator
William Grippin, Barclays.
威廉·格里平,巴克萊銀行。
William Grippin - Equity Analyst
William Grippin - Equity Analyst
Just one quick one for me here on capital allocation. You obviously ramped up share repurchases here in the third quarter. Just wondering how we should think about maybe the split between spending on acquisitions and buybacks as we look into '26, maybe in the context of the M&A pipeline that you kind of see in front of you right now?
關於資本配置,我這裡還有一個簡單的問題想請教大家。顯然,你們在第三季加大了股票回購力道。我只是想知道,展望 2026 年,我們應該如何看待收購和股票回購支出之間的分配,尤其是在你現在看到的併購專案背景下?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. Well, you should always think in terms of strategically consistent, appropriately priced M&A is always going to be our highest and best use. We look forward to continuing to grow the business the same way we've historically grown it, concentrating on the types of markets that have really driven our success. Still see a lot of runway. We've talked about the $4.5 billion to $5 billion in private company revenue that fits that model. And that really, of course, sellers drive the timing of deals I have talked about the pipeline continuing to be robust.
當然。你應該始終從策略一致性的角度來考慮,定價合理的併購始終是我們最有效率、最恰當的用途。我們期待繼續以以往發展業務的方式發展業務,專注於真正推動我們成功的市場類型。仍然可以看到很長的跑道。我們已經討論過符合該模式的45億至50億美元的私人公司收入。當然,賣方才是交易時機的主要決定者。我之前也提到過,交易管道依然保持強勁。
And Ron talked about the successes we've had this year and the things we're closing in Q4 and looking ahead to next year, more to do. So with that as the backdrop, then the observation is, even with a dividend that continues to grow at double-digit percentages annually since its inception, we have tremendous flexibility to also do share repurchases, and you saw that in this recent period when as we would characterize it, there was an opportunistic environment or said another way, a dislocation that made it compelling from our perspective.
羅恩談到了我們今年的成功,以及我們在第四季度即將完成的事情,並展望了明年,還有更多的事情要做。因此,在這樣的背景下,我們可以觀察到,即使股息自設立以來每年都以兩位數百分比持續增長,我們仍然擁有巨大的靈活性來進行股票回購。在最近的這段時間裡,正如我們所描述的那樣,市場出現了一個機會主義的環境,或者換句話說,市場出現了錯位,這使得股票回購在我們看來具有吸引力。
So that is the way to think about it. The fact that we -- our leverage is $275 million tells you we have tremendous flexibility to continue really doing all of the above, but always M&A, as I described, will be the first order of business.
所以可以這樣思考。我們擁有 2.75 億美元的槓桿,這說明我們有極大的靈活性繼續進行上述所有工作,但正如我之前所說,併購始終是首要任務。
Operator
Operator
Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.
Tami Zakaria,摩根大通。
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
I'll add one quick question here. Any thoughts on how much of a volume headwind we could see next year from some of the contract shedding you're doing woefully? And if you could remind us how much of a drag it's expected to be this year? That would be helpful.
我再補充一個問題。您認為明年由於您目前糟糕的合約削減措施,可能會對交易量造成多大的影響?你能提醒我們一下,今年預計會有多麼令人沮喪嗎?那將會很有幫助。
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure, Tammy. As we've said, when we look at the 2.7 in negative volumes, about 70 basis points of that has been this intentional shedding. I mentioned earlier, we know about 1/3 of that, it will step down even in Q4 because of one contract we anniversary. And then going forward, it will really be a function of how much that continues to decline be a function of any incremental shedding from acquisitions that we're currently doing or have done in the last year.
當然可以,塔米。正如我們所說,當我們觀察負成交量的 2.7 時,其中約有 70 個基點是這種有意拋售造成的。我之前提到過,我們知道其中大約三分之一,即使在第四季度也會因為一份合約的周年紀念而減少。展望未來,這將真正取決於這種下降趨勢的程度,以及我們目前正在進行或在過去一年中進行的收購所帶來的任何增量剝離。
And so given the fact that we've still been busy, there's certainly potential for pieces there, but I wouldn't expect it to get greater than what we've recently seen. I would expect those losses overall to be smaller than they have been in recent periods.
因此,鑑於我們一直都很忙,這方面肯定有創作的潛力,但我預計不會比我們最近看到的更大。我預計總體損失將小於近期的水平。
Operator
Operator
Michael Doumet, National Bank.
Michael Doumet,國家銀行。
Michael Doumet - Equity Analyst
Michael Doumet - Equity Analyst
Just wanted to add a question on the regional results. It looks like Canada and the Southern US are seeing some pretty solid margin expansion while the other regions are flat to down year-to-date. I mean, is that reflective of where the recycling business is a little bit larger? Just wondering what is driving the differences in the margins in the regions.
我想補充一個關於地區賽結果的問題。今年以來,加拿大和美國南部地區的利潤率似乎出現了相當穩健的成長,而其他地區的利潤率則持平或下降。我的意思是,這是否反映出回收業務規模稍大?想知道造成各地區利潤率差異的原因是什麼。
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
So typically, the biggest drivers would be, yes, it would include recycling to your point, our Western region and our Eastern region both have large recycling impacts. It also reflects acquisition activity because acquisitions are typically dilutive and so you would certainly see that in any of those regions where we've closed deals.
所以通常來說,最大的驅動因素是,是的,正如您所說,這其中包括回收利用,我們的西部地區和東部地區都對回收產生了很大的影響。這也反映了收購活動,因為收購通常會稀釋股權,所以在我們完成交易的任何地區,你肯定會看到這種情況。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And the other thing I would say, Michael, is it also reflects when you ask the difference between original margins. It also reflects the general tip fee landfill tip fee has built into the regional differences. So where you are in the Northeast, and you're talking $80 to $120 tip fees or the west where you're talking $60 to $120 tip fees, you're going to have suppressed EBITDA margins relative to the central part of the country and the South and Southeast, where you're experiencing $20 to $40 landfill tip fees. So some is just a structural difference.
還有一點我想說的是,邁克爾,當你問到原始邊距之間的差異時,這一點也反映了這一點。這也反映了垃圾掩埋場一般垃圾處理費的地理差異。因此,在東北部地區,垃圾處理費為 80 至 120 美元,或在西部地區,垃圾處理費為 60 至 120 美元,相對於中部地區、南部地區和東南部地區(垃圾掩埋場處理費為 20 至 40 美元),這些地區的 EBITDA 利潤率將會受到抑制。所以有些差異只是結構上的差異。
Michael Doumet - Equity Analyst
Michael Doumet - Equity Analyst
Got you. And then I guess on the -- remember -- on the Q1 conference call, I remember you indicating that there are a few chunkier deals in the pipeline. And it sounds like you've closed of them. But I was wondering if there are more ahead in how they are progressing and just generally on how you view the M&A environment for 2026.
抓到你了。然後,我記得你在第一季電話會議上提到,有一些數額較大的交易正在籌備中。聽起來你已經把它們都關閉了。但我很想知道,他們未來的發展如何,以及您對 2026 年併購環境的整體看法。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Well, I mean, you are correct, Mike. We have closed some of those deals. We closed a very nice side, a large company in South Florida in Q3. We have signed and will close in the next few weeks another nice company in Central Florida. So some of those were ones we were referring to. We are also referring to this large transfer station in New York that we have under definitive agreements since May.
是的。嗯,我的意思是,你說得對,麥克。我們已經完成了一些交易。第三季度,我們完成了一筆非常不錯的交易,這是南佛羅裡達州一家大型公司。我們已經與佛羅裡達州中部另一家不錯的公司簽約,並將在未來幾週內完成交易。所以其中一些就是我們之前提到的。我們指的是我們在紐約的這個大型轉運站,我們自五月以來就已與其簽訂了最終協議。
And as I mentioned earlier in a question asked, we will be closing that in this quarter as well. And there are always our deals of various sizes that are under constant discussion and negotiation. I would characterize the M&A environment as continuing to be very strong, very robust. We've already done sort of about 2 times a normalized year through three quarters and will continue at a strong pace in Q4.
正如我之前在回答一個問題時提到的,我們也將在本季完成這項工作。此外,我們還有各種規模的交易項目正在不斷討論和談判中。我認為併購環境依然非常強勁、非常穩健。前三個季度我們已經完成了大約兩倍於正常年份的產量,第四季將繼續保持強勁的成長勢頭。
So this is going to end up being a more than double average year. And we're not really seeing any material change to that in any way as we head into '26. I think if and when and hopefully soon, the economy turns, as interest rates continue to pull down throughout and private owners get a little more lift in their sales, that helps accelerate M&A activity. So the catalysts that drive things are not going -- they're going in the right direction, not the wrong direction.
所以今年的最終產量將會是平均值的兩倍多。進入 2026 年,我們並沒有看到這種情況有任何實質的變化。我認為,如果經濟狀況好轉(希望很快),隨著利率持續下降,私人業主的銷售額有所增長,這將有助於加速併購活動。所以推動事物發展的催化劑並沒有偏離方向——它們正朝著正確的方向發展,而不是錯誤的方向。
Operator
Operator
Shlomo Rosenbaum, Stifel.
Shlomo Rosenbaum,Stifel。
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst
Ron, I just wanted to start asking you if you could flesh out a little bit more your discussion on pricing that you've gotten from technology, and it sounds like you've been kind of favorably surprised in where you can both price and kind of help you price, I guess, in a very pinpoint way so you're not impacting churn. Where do you think you are in terms of kind of rolling those learnings out across the organization? And in your efforts to kind of explore and analyze it, are you finding additional adjacencies with that technology and analytics that are kind of ongoing, where you're consistently finding some new areas where you feel like you can press additional buttons?
羅恩,我只是想問你,你能不能更詳細地闡述一下你從技術方面獲得的定價方面的討論,聽起來你對定價方面感到相當驚喜,而且技術方面也能幫助你非常精準地定價,從而避免影響客戶流失。您認為在將這些經驗推廣到整個組織方面,你們處於什麼階段?在您探索和分析的過程中,您是否發現了與該技術和分析相關的其他領域,而這些領域仍在不斷發展,您是否不斷發現一些新的領域,感覺可以按下額外的按鈕?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Well, first off, to answer your question, I think we're only in the second inning of a 9-inning game as far as deployment. So very, very early in doing so. we have deployed this to about 7% of our P&Ls so far, and that will grow to about, call it, half to 75% throughout '26. So I think you'll continue to see improvement in that '26 and into '27 before you really start to see all of the impact. And really, look, the ultimate objective, I think, and I don't think we're any different than any of the other large public companies is how do you achieve your price increase objectives with the least customer churn by type of customer, by geography.
是的。首先,回答你的問題,我認為就部署而言,我們目前只是處於九局比賽的第二局。因此,我們很早就開始實施這項措施。目前,我們已將其應用於約 7% 的損益表,預計到 2026 年,這一比例將增長到大約一半到 75%。所以我認為,在 2026 年和 2027 年,你會繼續看到改善,然後才會真正開始看到所有的影響。實際上,我認為最終目標,而且我認為我們與其他大型上市公司並無不同,就是如何在客戶類型和地理範圍內,以最小的客戶流失率實現價格上漲目標。
And so instead of being, I'm going to call it more uniform with -- if everybody is getting a 7% increase in a certain market, does somebody get 1.9 and somebody get 10.4 based on individual customer specifics of sort of an algorithmic stack of what we believe causes customer price acceptance or rejection or negotiation. And so I think ultimately, this takes pressure off volume trade-off between price and volume, and you're going to begin seeing that in '26. And continue to see it as we go forward.
因此,與其說是,我更願意稱之為更統一的方式——如果某個市場中每個人都獲得了 7% 的增長,那麼根據我們認為導致客戶接受、拒絕或談判的演算法堆疊中個別客戶的具體情況,是否有人獲得 1.9%,而有人獲得 10.4% 的增長呢?因此,我認為最終這將減輕價格和銷售之間的權衡壓力,你將在 2026 年開始看到這一點。我們將繼續關注這一點。
And I think it allows us to achieve with less customer rollback and detection, our price increase objectives. So I think it's a little too early to say what else that means. But if it accomplishes that objective alone, we'd be extremely satisfied. And the early indication from 1/7 of the company's location is very positive. It's a 30% to 40% reduction in churn on similar price increases. So that's pretty significant.
我認為這使我們能夠在減少客戶回溯和檢測的情況下實現我們的漲價目標。所以我覺得現在說這代表什麼還太早。但即便僅僅達到這個目的,我們也會非常滿意。從該公司七分之一的所在地來看,早期跡象非常積極。在價格上漲幅度相同的情況下,客戶流失率可降低 30% 至 40%。所以這意義重大。
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst
And then maybe Mary Anne, can you talk a little bit about the puts and takes an implied margin expansion of 90 basis points year over year for next quarter? Like maybe just give us a little more breakdown on how that should shake out, at least and how you're thinking about it.
那麼,瑪麗安妮,您能否談談下一季的看跌期權和看漲期權,以及同比隱含利潤率擴張 90 個基點的情況?或許可以更詳細地解釋事情最終會如何發展,以及你是怎麼考慮的。
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. So the key moving pieces there the change between Q3 and Q4 is that 70 basis point headwind that we talked about from recycled commodities and RINs declined to about 30 basis points. And so that, of course, is the biggest driver the change period-over-period.
當然。因此,第三季和第四季之間的關鍵變化在於,我們先前提到的來自再生商品和 RINs 的 70 個基點的不利因素下降到大約 30 個基點。因此,這當然是周期性變化的最大驅動因素。
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst
Okay. And then -- if -- do you have like a rollover into 2026 for the acquisitions that have been completed to date?
好的。那麼——如果——你們是否有將迄今為止已完成的收購項目結轉到 2026 年的計劃?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. We said it was approaching 1%. That was kind of rounded. I think it's somewhere between 80 and 90 basis points, something like that.
是的。我們說它接近1%。那有點圓滑了。我認為大概在 80 到 90 個基點之間,差不多是這樣。
Operator
Operator
Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.
東尼卡普蘭,摩根士丹利。
Yehuda Silverman - Analyst
Yehuda Silverman - Analyst
This is Yehuda Silverman on for Toni. Just have a quick question on commodities in the quarter. Some of the factors -- the headwinds that were factored into the guide were the results in the quarter are worse or better than expected? And then looking ahead, what is something that can mark recovery or stabilization of the commodity prices? Is it more macro or economic activity, the only notable driver or other drivers for potential recovery?
這是耶胡達·西爾弗曼替托尼上場。我有一個關於本季大宗商品交易的小問題。一些因素——也就是指南中考慮的不利因素——導致本季業績比預期更差還是更好?展望未來,什麼因素可以標誌著大宗商品價格的復甦或穩定?是宏觀經濟活動還是其他因素,是潛在復甦的唯一顯著驅動因素,還是有其他驅動因素?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. So the incremental headwinds from commodities that we talked about in the quarter were about 20 basis points. So the continued slide we saw during the quarter that we talked about overcoming with our underlying margin expansion. And I would say, generally speaking, the best indicator would be the macro environment, the overall demand and visibility on that demand.
當然。因此,我們在本季討論的大宗商品帶來的額外不利因素約為 20 個基點。因此,我們在本季看到的持續下滑趨勢,我們曾表示將透過擴大基本利潤率來克服。總的來說,我認為最好的指標是宏觀環境、整體需求以及對該需求的可見度。
The good news is that there's been so much conversion in the United States of mills to taking recycled feedstock that demand has been steady and there's far less influence internationally. And that's why I would argue that it could be a factor in the greater stability overall in those commodity prices, particularly OCC.
好消息是,美國許多工廠都開始使用回收原料,因此需求一直很穩定,國際上受到的影響也小得多。因此,我認為這可能是這些大宗商品價格(尤其是OCC)整體上更加穩定的因素。
Yehuda Silverman - Analyst
Yehuda Silverman - Analyst
Got it. Just one more quick one. Is there -- on a government shutdown, if that's prolonged, is there any potential impact on customers' decision-making or contracts or nothing really important?
知道了。再來一個。如果政府停擺持續時間過長,是否會對客戶的決策或合約產生任何潛在影響,或不會對其他重要事項產生任何影響?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
It's not so much government contracts. It would just be the overall activity and the lack of visibility there to the extent it's influenced by a government shutdown. I mean we certainly might pick up at parks or things, but it's not a needle mover.
與其說是政府合同,不如說是其他方面的問題。政府停擺會造成整體活動減少,並且缺乏透明度,從而影響相關領域。我的意思是,我們當然可能會在公園之類的地方有所收穫,但這並不會改變什麼。
Operator
Operator
Trevor Romeo, William Blair.
特雷弗·羅密歐,威廉·布萊爾。
Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst
Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst
Just maybe a couple of quick landfill related questions. One, just on Arrowhead, I think maybe, first, I guess, any update on tonnes going to the facility, whether those are still ramping. And then we have a big merger in the rail space, I guess, pending that could include some of the lines in that part of the country. So just wondering if you could maybe see any changes or impact to your service there if that merger is approved?
也許我想問幾個關於垃圾掩埋場的問題。第一,就 Arrowhead 而言,我想首先,我想,能否更新一下運往該設施的噸位,看看這些噸位是否仍在逐步增加。然後,我想鐵路領域可能會出現一起大型合併案,這可能會涉及該地區的一些線路。所以我想問一下,如果這項合併獲得批准,您的服務是否會受到任何變更或影響?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, sure. I'm happy to give you an update. So Arrowhead has continued to progress. We are now hitting about 7,500 tonnes a day in Q3 at Arrowhead. Recalling that when we acquired the site in August of '23. So two years ago this quarter, it was about 2,500 to 2,700 tonnes a day. So we've made substantial progress there. I will also tell you that we have laid the foundation for incremental continued improvement in '26 and '27 in that we have built out incremental track at our landfill.
當然可以。我很高興向您報告最新情況。因此,Arrowhead公司一直在不斷發展。在Arrowhead工廠第三季度,我們目前的日產量約為7500噸。回想起我們在 2023 年 8 月收購該地塊的時候。所以兩年前的這個季度,日產量大約是 2500 至 2700 噸。所以,我們在這方面取得了實質進展。我還要告訴大家,我們已經為 2026 年和 2027 年的持續改進奠定了基礎,因為我們在垃圾掩埋場建造了漸進式軌道。
And when I say we have actually Norfolk Southern has, but it for us, of course, with our capital, and they've also done that at our Newark facility -- loading facility outside of outside of New York City. Those two things were crucial for them to begin running a unit train for us, dedicated unit train multiple days a week, and that is actually scheduled to begin in the mid- to late fourth quarter of this year. That would be -- will be very helpful to us that will reduce transit times by potentially up to 25% to 30%, and that helps the overall cost structure for Norfolk Southern, but also for us, because it requires less railcar capital from us as we expand because you're getting more turns on your existing railcars.
我說我們實際上有諾福克南方鐵路公司,但對我們來說,當然是用我們的資金,他們還在我們位於紐約市郊外的紐瓦克裝卸設施完成了這項工作。這兩件事對他們來說至關重要,因為他們決定開始為我們運行專列,每週運行多天,而這實際上計劃於今年第四季度中後期開始。這將對我們非常有幫助,可以減少高達 25% 至 30% 的運輸時間,這不僅有助於諾福克南方鐵路公司的整體成本結構,而且對我們也有好處,因為隨著我們業務的擴張,我們需要的鐵路貨車資本也會減少,因為現有鐵路貨車的周轉率更高。
So those are all good things. Yes. And the pending UP. Norfolk Southern merger, we -- first off, we have a very long-term contract with Norfolk Southern that will have no effect on or should have no effect from the merger. So we're not concerned about that. and UP really does not pull in the lane segments that we are operating in, and Norfolk Southern is the predominant rail there. So we really expect no material impact from their proposed merger.
所以這些都是好事。是的。還有待處理的 UP。關於諾福克南方鐵路的合併,首先,我們與諾福克南方鐵路簽訂了一份非常長期的合同,該合同不會對合併產生任何影響,或者說不應該產生任何影響。所以我們並不擔心這一點。而聯合太平洋鐵路公司其實並不負責我們營運的那些路段,諾福克南方鐵路公司才是那裡的主要鐵路營運商。因此,我們預期他們提出的合併方案不會產生實質影響。
Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst
Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst
That's helpful and good news on the expansions. And then real quick on Seneca Meadows, I know you're going through kind of a permitting process or expansion there. Just any quick updates you could give us on how that process is going?
這對擴建計畫來說是個好消息,很有幫助。然後簡單提一下塞內卡草甸項目,我知道你們正在進行某種許可審批或擴建程序。能否簡單介紹一下流程的進展?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I would tell you that really, we are tracking about as expected. We remain very confident in our ability to get the expansion there's sort of a two-step process -- well, there's a three-step process with the biggest one being local post-agreement approval, and we have achieved that. It was also a legal challenge by some township group there. And that has been effectively awarded by the higher court in New York here in the last -- it's been stayed. It's a better way to say it, maybe (inaudible). We believe it's a good indication. It will be (inaudible), but it's been stayed. So that's positive. And then there is a final technical demonstration through the state DOC, and that is ongoing. So we again remain confident that we're on track to obtain it.
是的。我可以告訴你,實際上,我們的進展基本上符合預期。我們仍然非常有信心能夠實現擴建,這有點像一個兩步驟流程——好吧,實際上是一個三步驟流程,其中最重要的一步是當地的後續協議批准,而我們已經實現了這一點。當地一些鄉鎮團體也對此提出了法律挑戰。而紐約高等法院最近實際上已經做出了裁決——該裁決已被中止。或許這樣說比較好一些。(聽不清楚)我們認為這是一個很好的跡象。將會是(聽不清楚),但已被擱置。這是個好消息。最後,州環保部也將進行最終的技術演示,目前正在進行中。因此,我們仍然相信我們正按計劃推進,最終能夠實現目標。
Operator
Operator
Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.
Stephanie Moore,傑富瑞集團。
Stephanie Moore - Analyst
Stephanie Moore - Analyst
Most of my questions have been asked. So apart from asking you, Ron and Mary Anee, how you're doing, I think I'll just throw in as you think about your M&A opportunity and your pipeline going forward? Is it at this point solely focused on kind of MSW deals? Or is there a willingness to look outside of traditional MSW deals as well?
我的大部分問題都已經被問過了。除了問候羅恩和瑪麗安妮,問問你們近況如何之外,我想就你們的併購機會和未來的發展計劃發表一下看法?目前是否只專注於MSW類型的交易?或者,他們是否也願意考慮傳統社會工作碩士(MSW)交易以外的其他方式?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, first off, Stephanie, thank you for asking how we're doing. Thankfully, we're doing all right. I appreciate that. And as far as our pipeline, there is nothing in the pipeline that is anything but traditional solid waste steels. That is what is in the pipeline. That is what you will see closing in Q4. That is what you will see closing in '26. And we are not looking at something that is outside of that our sort of core arena and do not believe there's any need to do so at this point in time..
首先,史蒂芬妮,謝謝你關心我們過得怎麼樣。謝天謝地,我們一切都好。我很感激。至於我們的管道,管道裡除了傳統的固體廢鋼之外,沒有其他東西。這就是目前正在籌備的項目。這就是您將在第四季度看到的收盤情況。這就是你將在 2026 年看到的收尾工作。我們目前關注的並非我們核心領域之外的事物,而且我們認為現階段也沒有必要這樣做。
Operator
Operator
Tony Bancroft, Gabelli Funds.
Tony Bancroft,Gabelli Funds。
Tony Bancroft - Analyst
Tony Bancroft - Analyst
Ron and Mary Anne, great job on the quarter and a great job overall. Just regarding maybe, Ron, just you I know it's very late in the game here, but regarding your view on maybe how PFAS will play out? I know it's sort of sort of been quieted recently. But all these long-term liabilities always seem to pop their heads up again. I just want to get your view on that at your landfills and the economics around that. Maybe a quick hip pocket lecture. And then you've seen others talk about doing these plastic sort of polymer plans? And just want to get your view on what you think of the economics on that are long term. Maybe just a quick hip-pocket lecture, if you could.
Ron 和 Mary Anne,本季表現出色,整體表現也很棒。羅恩,只是關於也許,就你而言,我知道現在討論這個問題已經很晚了,但關於你對 PFAS 未來發展走向的看法?我知道最近這件事似乎平靜了下來。但所有這些長期負債似乎總是會再次冒出來。我只是想了解一下你們對垃圾掩埋場以及相關經濟狀況的看法。或許可以簡單講講你的私處經。然後你也看到其他人談論過製作這種塑膠之類的聚合物方案嗎?我想了解一下您對長期經濟狀況的看法。如果你方便的話,或許可以簡單講解一下給我。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. I appreciate it, Tony. Look, with regard to PFOS, obviously, things will continue to be codified through the federal government. And we, as an industry and us as a company, we'll react to that. I tell you that we have been working on this for the better part of three years. We've narrowed down to two to three technologies, all of which are working and performing very well. We have bought portable units at multiple of our landfills, effectively utilizing what I would call sort of, in effect, a solidification and stabilization of the PFAS from a leachate and removing it before you do anything with the leachate and taking that PFAS, which is now in a solid form and disposing of that properly.
當然。謝謝你,托尼。關於 PFOS,顯然,相關規定將繼續由聯邦政府制定。而我們,作為產業的一部分,作為公司的一部分,都會對此做出反應。我告訴你,我們為此已經努力了將近三年。我們已經將範圍縮小到兩到三種技術,所有這些技術都運作良好,性能優異。我們在多個垃圾掩埋場購買了便攜式裝置,有效地利用了我所謂的對滲濾液中的 PFAS 進行固化和穩定化處理,並在對滲濾液進行任何處理之前將其去除,然後將現在呈固體形式的 PFAS 進行妥善處置。
So we're very confident in our ability to comply with it. We're confident in our ability to pass those appropriate costs on in our rate increases to our customers and to demonstrate to publicly owned and privately owned wastewater treatment plants that the leachate is below a level from a PFAS standpoint of any federal regulation. So it is not a needle mover in any direction for us on a real revenue opportunity or a real expense creep at this point in time.
因此,我們非常有信心能夠遵守這項規定。我們有信心將這些適當的成本透過提高費率轉嫁給我們的客戶,並向公有和私有污水處理廠證明,從 PFAS 的角度來看,滲濾液的含量低於任何聯邦法規規定的水平。因此,就目前而言,它不會對我們帶來實際的收入機會或實際的支出成長產生任何影響。
So we remain confident in that. Plastics, obviously, one of the national companies has done a great job with their, I think, now two polymer centers they've opened and plan to open a third. What I would say is those have been opened in relatively large urban markets where that company has a very nice position, and I think it makes tremendous sense. And I think they're demonstrating that it makes good sense there financially and sustainability-wise. We are looking at some similar things, not a polymer center, but some similar plastic separation treatment technologies that could make sense.
所以我們對此仍然充滿信心。顯然,塑膠產業,一家全國性公司做得非常出色,我認為他們現在已經開設了兩個聚合物中心,並計劃開設第三個。我想說的是,這些門市都開在了規模相對較大的城市市場,而該公司在這些市場中佔有非常有利的地位,我認為這非常有意義。我認為他們正在證明,從經濟和永續性的角度來看,這樣做是明智之舉。我們正在研究一些類似的東西,雖然不是聚合物中心,但一些類似的塑膠分離處理技術可能很有意義。
We're not prepared to say that they do, but we are moving down the road testing some of them. So I would stay tuned on that. As you may know, right now, plastics have been falling. And so -- but the demand and the EPR requirements that are moving on through certain of the states, you're going to need to address plastics. We, as a company and us as an industry to help those states comply with their EPR legislation. So it will be a continued developing area.
我們現在還不能斷言它們有效,但我們正在推進其中一些技術的測試。所以我會繼續關注此事。正如你可能知道的那樣,目前塑膠垃圾正在減少。因此——但隨著某些州的需求和 EPR 要求的推進,你需要解決塑膠問題。我們公司和我們整個行業都將致力於幫助這些州遵守其EPR立法。因此,這將是一個持續發展的領域。
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
The one thing I would add, Tony, is just keep in mind that plastics are a tiny fraction of the overall stream of recyclables. And to Ron's point, if you have a critical mass in one area, the mass will be very different from having a small amount in lots of markets.
東尼,我還要補充一點,請記住,塑膠只佔可回收物總量的一小部分。正如 Ron 所說,如果你在一個領域擁有了足夠的規模,那麼這種規模與在許多市場擁有少量規模的情況截然不同。
Operator
Operator
And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll be concluding today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to the management team for any closing remarks.
女士們、先生們,今天的問答環節到此結束。我謹將發言權交還給管理團隊,請他們作總結發言。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. Thank you, operator. Well, if there are no further questions, on behalf of our entire management team, we appreciate your listening to and interest in our call today. Mary Anne and Joe Box are available today to answer any direct questions that we did not cover that we are allowed to answer under Regulation FD, Regulation G and applicable securities laws in Canada. Thank you again, and we look forward to connecting with you at upcoming investor conferences or on our next earnings call.
好的。謝謝您,接線生。那麼,如果沒有其他問題,我們整個管理團隊感謝您今天收聽並關注我們的電話會議。Mary Anne 和 Joe Box 今天可以回答我們未涵蓋的、根據加拿大《公平披露條例》、《G條例》和適用證券法允許我們回答的任何直接問題。再次感謝,我們期待在即將舉行的投資者會議或下次財報電話會議上與您交流。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議和演示就到此結束。非常感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。