Waste Connections Inc (WCN) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Waste Connections Inc. Q3 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Waste Connections Inc. 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ronald J. Mittelstaedt, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給總裁兼執行長 Ronald J. Mittelstaedt。請繼續。

Thank you, Operator, and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to this conference call to discuss our third-quarter results and to provide an update to our full year 2024 outlook a detailed outlook for the fourth quarter as well as some early thoughts about 2025.

謝謝您，接線員，早安。我謹歡迎大家參加本次電話會議，討論我們的第三季度業績，並提供 2024 年全年展望的最新信息、第四季度的詳細展望以及有關 2025 年的一些早期想法。

I'm joined this morning by Mary Anne Whitney, our CFO and other members of our leadership team. As noted in our earnings release, we are extremely pleased by the strength of our operating and financial results in the period, positioning us for another increase to our full year 2024 outlook with momentum as we look ahead to 2025.

今天早上，我們的財務長瑪麗安妮惠特尼 (Mary Anne Whitney) 和我們領導團隊的其他成員也加入了我的行列。正如我們在財報中所指出的，我們對這段時期的營運和財務表現的強勁表現感到非常滿意，這使我們在展望 2025 年時充滿動力，再次提高了 2024 年全年展望。

Solid waste growth led by 6.8% core pricing was supplemented by incremental acquisition contributions and 90 basis points sequential improvement in solid waste volumes during the period to drive results above expectations.

固體廢棄物成長由 6.8% 的核心定價帶動，輔以增量收購貢獻和期內固體廢棄物量環比改善 90 個基點，推動業績超出預期。

Solid operational execution enabled us to deliver adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.7% in the third quarter, as we expected, up 120 basis points year-over-year, overcoming margin dilution from acquisitions closed during the quarter and initial storm-related impacts at quarter end.

穩健的營運執行使我們在第三季度實現了33.7% 的調整後EBITDA 利潤率，正如我們預期的那樣，同比增長120 個基點，克服了本季度完成的收購帶來的利潤稀釋以及季度末最初的風暴相關影響。

Our results also reflect continued progress in employee retention, with voluntary turnover improving for the eighth consecutive quarter, bringing multiyear reductions to over 40% as we continue to invest in our most important asset, our people.

我們的業績也反映了員工留任率的持續進步，隨著我們繼續投資於我們最重要的資產——員工，自願離職率連續第八個季度有所改善，使多年減少幅度超過 40%。

Further, we anticipate that our innovative approaches to drive continued improvement in employee engagement and retention should position us in 2025 for another year of above-average underlying margin expansion in solid waste collection, transfer and disposal.

此外，我們預計，我們推動員工敬業度和保留率持續提高的創新方法將使我們在 2025 年固體廢棄物收集、轉移和處置方面的基礎利潤率再次高於平均水準。

Before we get into much more detail, let me turn the call over to Mary Anne for our forward-looking disclaimer and other housekeeping items.

在我們詳細介紹之前，請允許我將電話轉給瑪麗安妮，以獲取我們的前瞻性免責聲明和其他內務事項。

Thank you, Ron, and good morning.

謝謝你，羅恩，早安。

The discussion during today's call includes forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws.

今天電話會議的討論包括根據 1995 年美國私人證券訴訟改革法案的安全港條款做出的前瞻性陳述，包括適用的加拿大證券法含義內的前瞻性資訊。

Actual results could differ materially from those made in such forward-looking statements due to various risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed both in the cautionary statement included in our October 23 earnings release and in greater detail in Waste Connections filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the securities commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada.

由於各種風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。我們 10 月 23 日財報中包含的警告聲明以及向美國證券交易委員會和加拿大證券委員會或類似監管機構提交的 Waste Connections 文件中更詳細地討論了可能導致實際結果不同的因素。

You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as there may be additional risks of which we are not presently aware or that we currently believe are immaterial, which could have an adverse impact on our business. We make no commitment to revise or update any forward-looking statements in order to reflect events or circumstances that may change after today's date.

您不應過度依賴前瞻性陳述，因為可能存在我們目前尚未意識到或我們目前認為不重要的其他風險，這可能對我們的業務產生不利影響。我們不承諾修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述以反映今天之後可能發生變化的事件或情況。

On the call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income attributable to Waste Connections on both a dollar basis and per diluted share and adjusted free cash flow.

在電話會議上，我們將討論非公認會計原則措施，例如調整後的 EBITDA、調整後歸屬於 Waste Connections 的淨利潤（以美元為基礎和稀釋每股收益）以及調整後的自由現金流。

Please refer to our earnings releases for a reconciliation of such non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures. Management uses certain non-GAAP measures to evaluate and monitor the ongoing financial performance of our operations. Other companies may calculate these non-GAAP measures differently.

請參閱我們的收益發布，以了解此類非 GAAP 指標與最具可比性 GAAP 指標的對帳情況。管理階層使用某些非公認會計原則衡量標準來評估和監控我們營運的持續財務表現。其他公司可能會以不同的方式計算這些非公認會計準則指標。

I will now turn the call back over to Ron.

我現在將把電話轉回給羅恩。

Okay. Thank you, Mary Anne.

好的。謝謝你，瑪麗安妮。

We are extremely pleased by our operational execution in Q3, driving financial results above expectations as we continue to see the benefits of our focus on quality of revenue and human capital, while also delivering a record year of private company acquisition activity. Beginning with solid waste organic growth. Core pricing of 6.8% was in line with our expectations.

我們對第三季的營運執行感到非常滿意，推動財務業績超出預期，因為我們繼續看到我們專注於收入品質和人力資本的好處，同時也實現了創紀錄的私人公司收購活動。從固體廢物有機成長開始。6.8%的核心定價符合我們的預期。

Reported volumes stepped up sequentially by 90 basis points as we began to anniversary a portion of the purposeful shedding we referenced in previous periods and also as a result of more special waste activity, including some Q4 projects, which were pulled forward to Q3.

報告的數量連續增加了90 個基點，因為我們開始紀念我們在前幾個時期提到的部分有目的的削減，同時也由於更多特殊的廢物活動，包括一些第四季度的項目，這些項目被推遲到第三季。

Additionally, our results reflect incremental acquisition contributions with better-than-expected performance from acquisitions we closed earlier in the year, plus the impact of transactions closed during Q3. Most notably, we acquired Royal Waste Services, one of the preeminent holders in New York City with best-in-class collection, transfer and recycling facilities. Not to be confused with Royal Carting located further upstate, while waste is prominently located in New York City, where they were awarded five of the commercial zones as part of the Department of Sanitations announced franchise system.

此外，我們的業績反映了我們今年稍早完成的收購帶來的增量收購貢獻，業績好於預期，以及第三季完成的交易的影響。最值得注意的是，我們收購了皇家廢棄物服務公司，這是紐約市最傑出的持有者之一，擁有一流的收集、轉移和回收設施。不要與位於更北部的 Royal Carting 混淆，而廢物主要位於紐約市，作為衛生局宣布的特許經營系統的一部分，他們被授予了五個商業區。

As such, our acquisition of Royal Waste complements our already well-established operations in New York City, where we were originally awarded 12 commercial zones. We are now comfortably the largest and only fully-integrated player in New York City.

因此，我們對 Royal Waste 的收購補充了我們在紐約市業已完善的業務，我們最初在紐約市獲得了 12 個商業區。我們現在毫無疑問是紐約市最大且唯一完全整合的參與者。

On the subject of New York City and its transition to a franchise model, we are pleased to report that the initial phase is proceeding at or better than we expected. Based on our experience in September in the pilot zone, we believe that the opportunity for growth and operating efficiencies should exceed our initial expectations, particularly given our already well-established and now expanded footprint in the city.

關於紐約市及其向特許經營模式的過渡，我們很高興地報告，初始階段的進展符合或優於我們的預期。根據我們 9 月在試驗區的經驗，我們認為成長和營運效率的機會應該超出我們最初的預期，特別是考慮到我們在該市已經成熟且現在擴大的足跡。

What we've recognized from the onset of this franchise process was the critical importance of the location of assets within the city and the advantages they provide. Additionally, we anticipated the benefit from the optionality that would be afforded by our strategic acquisition 14 months ago of the Arrowhead Landfill in Alabama, providing rail access from markets in the Northeast.

從特許經營過程一開始，我們就認識到資產在城市中的位置及其提供的優勢至關重要。此外，我們預計 14 個月前我們策略性收購阿拉巴馬州的 Arrowhead 垃圾掩埋場將帶來可選性，從而提供來自東北部市場的鐵路通道。

With recent peak days running at over twice our initial 3,500 tonne per day throughput, activity at Arrowhead is also exceeding plan and benefiting several of our Northeast markets, including New York City, as we work to optimize waste flows and disposal capacity utilization within our own network of facilities.

最近的高峰日吞吐量是最初3,500 噸/日吞吐量的兩倍多，Arrowhead 的活動也超出了計劃，並使我們的幾個東北市場（包括紐約市）受益，因為我們致力於優化我們自己的廢物流和處置能力利用率設施網絡。

Moreover, we continue to evaluate incremental acquisition opportunities in the East as a result of this important element in our integration strategy. The franchise model being rolled out in New York City has transformed what was already a very good market for us into one with outstanding long-term value creation potential.

此外，由於我們整合策略中的這一重要因素，我們將繼續評估東部地區的增量收購機會。紐約市推出的特許經營模式將我們本來就非常好的市場轉變為具有出色的長期價值創造潛力的市場。

Getting back to the broader topic of acquisitions. As anticipated, we are on track for a record amount of private company acquisitions in 2024, our biggest year since our founding in 1997. To-date, we have signed or closed over $700 million in annualized private company revenue, this includes solid waste franchises, new competitive markets, E&P waste facilities and several tuck-ins of operations in or adjacent to our current footprint in solid waste.

回到更廣泛的收購話題。正如預期的那樣，我們預計在 2024 年實現創紀錄的私人公司收購量，這是我們自 1997 年成立以來最大的一年。迄今為止，我們已簽署或完成了超過7 億美元的私人公司年收入，其中包括固體廢棄物特許經營權、新的競爭市場、勘探與生產廢棄物設施以及我們當前固體廢棄物足跡內或附近的幾項業務。

We continue to maintain our focus on solid waste with a proven market selection strategy and a track record for integrating and maximizing value. As we say, more important than completing acquisitions is their implementation and as noted earlier, regarding Q3, we're pleased to see performance at our acquired operations above our expectations.

我們憑藉經過驗證的市場選擇策略以及整合和最大化價值的良好記錄，繼續保持對固體廢物的關注。正如我們所說，比完成收購更重要的是它們的實施，正如前面提到的，關於第三季度，我們很高興看到所收購業務的業績超出了我們的預期。

Additionally, acquisitions completed in 2024 should provide for approximately 2% or more in acquisition rollover contribution in 2025 with the potential for that to grow from additional transactions in Q4 and next year. While maintaining capacity for outside of the acquisition activity, we continue to reinvest in the business and expand our return of capital to shareholders.

此外，2024 年完成的收購應為 2025 年的收購展期貢獻提供約 2% 或更多，並有可能因第四季和明年的額外交易而成長。在保持收購活動之外的能力的同時，我們繼續對業務進行再投資，並擴大對股東的資本回報。

As anticipated, the strength of our operating performance, free cash flow generation and balance sheet positioned us for another double-digit increase to our quarterly cash dividend, demonstrating once again the compatibility of funding our differentiated growth strategy and acquisition activity, along with an increasing return of capital to shareholders.

正如預期的那樣，我們的經營業績、自由現金流生成和資產負債表的實力使我們的季度現金股息再次實現兩位數增長，再次證明了為我們的差異化增長戰略和收購活動提供資金的兼容性，以及不斷增加的現金股利。

To that end, our Board of Directors authorized a 10.5% increase to our regular quarterly cash dividend, our 14th consecutive annual double-digit increase since the initiation of the dividend in 2010. While executing our growth strategy, we've demonstrated significant progress towards achievement of our sustainability-related targets, which are inextricably linked to our focus on value creation in our business as highlighted in our 2024 sustainability report being released today.

為此，我們的董事會批准將定期季度現金股息增加 10.5%，這是自 2010 年開始發放股息以來我們連續第 14 個年度兩位數增長。在執行我們的成長策略時，我們在實現永續發展相關目標方面取得了重大進展，這與我們對業務價值創造的關注密不可分，正如我們今天發布的 2024 年永續發展報告所強調的那樣。

In fact, with multiyear reductions of 40% in emissions intensity and 13% in absolute emission declines, our results demonstrate that outsized growth is compatible with the achievement of our long-term aspirational ESG targets. I'm particularly pleased by the notable momentum from reductions in voluntary turnover and the related impacts to safety-related metrics, both are what's showing ongoing improvement in 2024.

事實上，隨著排放強度多年來減少 40%，絕對排放量下降 13%，我們的結果表明，超額成長與實現我們長期期望的 ESG 目標是相容的。我對自願流動減少所帶來的顯著勢頭以及對安全相關指標的相關影響感到特別高興，這兩者都表明 2024 年將持續改善。

In Q3, voluntary turnover was down for the eighth consecutive quarter for a total reduction of over 40% from the peak in 2022, and we have seen a corresponding reduction in open positions down over 50% in that period. Similarly, safety incident rates have shown continuous improvement, now down over 15% from 2022 levels as we reinforce our most important operating value and work every day to recognize and proactively address unsafe behaviors.

第三季度，自願成交量連續第八個季度下降，較 2022 年高峰減少了 40% 以上，同期未平倉部位也相應減少了 50% 以上。同樣，安全事故率也持續改善，目前比 2022 年的水準下降了 15% 以上，因為我們強化了最重要的營運價值，每天都致力於識別並主動解決不安全行為。

Our updated sustainability report also highlights our progress on increasing resources recovered through both the processing of recyclables and the recovery and beneficial use of landfill gas through renewable natural gas or RNG generation. We continue to make progress towards the development of our portfolio of new RNG facilities expected online in 2026.

我們更新的永續發展報告也強調了我們在透過可回收物加工以及透過再生天然氣或RNG發電回收和有益利用垃圾掩埋氣來增加資源回收方面取得的進展。我們將繼續在新 RNG 設施組合的開發方面取得進展，預計將於 2026 年上線。

Now I'd like to pass the call to Mary Anne, to review more in depth the financial highlights of the third quarter and to provide our updated full year 2024 outlook and a detailed outlook for Q4. I will then wrap up with some thoughts about 2025 before heading into Q&A.

現在我想將電話轉給瑪麗安妮，更深入地回顧第三季度的財務亮點，並提供我們更新的 2024 年全年展望和第四季度的詳細展望。然後，在進入問答環節之前，我將總結一些關於 2025 年的想法。

Thank you, Ron.

謝謝你，羅恩。

In the third quarter, revenue of $2.338 billion was above our outlook and up $274 million or 13.3% year-over-year. Acquisitions completed since the year ago period contributed about $161 million of revenue in the quarter, net of divestitures.

第三季營收為 23.38 億美元，年增 2.74 億美元，成長 13.3%，高於我們的預期。自去年同期以來完成的收購（扣除資產剝離）為本季貢獻了約 1.61 億美元的收入。

Core pricing of 6.8% range from over 5% in our primarily exclusive market Western region to up to approximately 7.5% in our competitive regions. Volumes improved sequentially by 90 basis points with gains across several geographies, most notably our Eastern region, where acquisition-related shedding and the nonrenewal of certain municipal contracts had impacted prior periods.

6.8% 的核心定價範圍從我們主要獨家市場西部地區的 5% 以上到我們競爭地區的最高約 7.5%。成交量較上季成長 90 個基點，多個地區均有成長，尤其是東部地區，該地區與收購相關的剝離和某些市政合約的不續約對前期產生了影響。

Additionally, activity picked up in certain markets, most notably in our Western region, where total volumes were up 3% year-over-year, which would be a strong quarter even in a high-growth environment, this outsized increase was led by special waste activity, up 20% year-over-year in our Western region.

此外，某些市場的活動有所回升，尤其是在我們的西部地區，總銷量同比增長3%，即使在高增長環境下，這也將是一個強勁的季度，這一大幅增長是由特殊市場帶動的。

Looking year-over-year at other lines of business. Roll-off pulls per day were down 3% on revenue per pull up about 5%. September was the weakest month, down 5% year-over-year and reflected the initial impact of Hurricane Helene in several markets in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee, and landfill tonnes were down nominally year-over-year on higher MSW tonnes, up 5%, offset by special waste down 10% and C&D tonnes down 6%.

逐年審視其他業務領域。每天的滾動拉動量下降了 3%，而每次拉動的收入則增加了約 5%。9 月是最弱的月份，年減5%，反映了颶風海倫對佛羅裡達州、喬治亞州、北卡羅來納州和田納西州幾個市場的初步影響，垃圾掩埋量名義上同比下降，原因是城市固體垃圾噸數增加，增加 5%，被特殊廢棄物下降 10% 和 C&D 噸數下降 6% 所抵消。

Special waste activity in Q3, while still down year-over-year, improved sequentially in what was the toughest comp from last year. This performance includes that outsized contribution from our Western region and reflects a few jobs getting pulled forward from Q4, a reminder of the event-driven nature and inherent lumpiness of these projects.

第三季的特殊廢棄物活動雖然仍年減，但在去年最艱難的情況下較上季有所改善。這項業績包括來自我們西部地區的巨大貢獻，並反映出一些工作從第四季度開始被提前，這提醒人們注意這些項目的事件驅動性質和固有的混亂性。

Moving next to revenues from recovered commodities. Landfill gas sales were up 15% in Q3 due primarily to higher volumes and higher value for renewable energy credits, or RINs. And recycled commodity revenues up 55% year-over-year ex-acquisitions were down nominally on a sequential basis as prices weakened during the quarter.

接下來是回收商品的收入。第三季垃圾掩埋氣銷量成長了 15%，這主要是由於再生能源信用額 (RIN) 的銷量增加和價值增加。由於本季價格走軟，回收商品收入較去年同期成長 55%，除收購外的營收名義上季減。

Moreover, since quarter end, commodity values have dropped by approximately 15% as a result of recent slowdowns associated with the port strike and weaker demand, with the potential for another 5% to 10% near-term reduction in Q4.

此外，自季末以來，由於近期港口罷工和需求疲軟導致經濟放緩，大宗商品價格已下跌約 15%，第四季近期可能進一步下跌 5% 至 10%。

Adjusted EBITDA for Q3, as reconciled in our earnings release, increased by 17.3% year-over-year to $787.4 million. At 33.7% of revenue, our adjusted EBITDA margin was up 110 basis points sequentially from Q2 and up 120 basis points year-over-year, this outsized margin expansion was in line with the increased expectations we provided in July and reflects outperformance in our core solid waste business, where we overcame both the drag from additional acquisition contributions coming on at diluted margins and incremental costs associated with hurricane preparation and related impacts.

根據我們的獲利報告，第三季調整後 EBITDA 年比成長 17.3%，達到 7.874 億美元。我們調整後的EBITDA 利潤率佔營收的33.7%，比第二季連續成長110 個基點，年增120 個基點，這種利潤率大幅擴張符合我們7 月份提供的成長預期，反映了我們核心業務的優異表現固體廢棄物業務，我們克服了利潤攤薄帶來的額外收購貢獻以及與颶風準備和相關影響相關的增量成本帶來的拖累。

Net interest expense of $80.2 million reflects a weighted average cost of debt of just over 4% and on a mix of approximately 82% fixed and 18% variable rate debt with an average tenor of almost 10 years. Leverage moved nominally in the quarter to about 2.7x debt-to-EBITDA. Our tax rate for Q3 was 23%, slightly lower than expected. And year-to-date adjusted free cash flow of $1.044 billion or 15.7% of revenue is on track for our full year adjusted free cash flow outlook of $1.2 billion.

8,020 萬美元的淨利息支出反映了略高於 4% 的加權平均債務成本，其中約 82% 的固定利率債務和 18% 的可變利率債務混合在一起，平均期限近 10 年。本季槓桿名義上達到債務與 EBITDA 的 2.7 倍左右。我們第三季的稅率為 23%，略低於預期。年初至今調整後自由現金流為 10.44 億美元，佔營收的 15.7%，預計全年調整後自由現金流將達 12 億美元。

I will now provide an updated full year 2024 outlook and a detailed outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024. Before I do, we'd like to remind everyone, once again, that actual results may vary significantly based on risks and uncertainties outlined in our safe harbor statement and filings we've made with the SEC and the Securities Commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada. We encourage investors to review these factors carefully.

我現在將提供更新後的 2024 年全年展望以及 2024 年第四季的詳細展望。在此之前，我們想再次提醒大家，根據我們的安全港聲明以及我們向美國證券交易委員會和證券委員會或類似監管機構提交的文件中概述的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能會存在很大差異。我們鼓勵投資者仔細審查這些因素。

Our outlook assumes no significant change in underlying economic trends. It also excludes any impact from additional acquisitions that may close during the remainder of the year and expensing of transaction-related items during the period. Looking first at our updated outlook for the full year as provided for and reconciled in our earnings release.

我們的前景假設基本經濟趨勢沒有重大變化。它還排除了可能在今年剩餘時間內完成的額外收購以及在此期間交易相關項目費用的任何影響。首先來看看我們最新的全年展望，如我們的收益發布中所規定和調整的。

Revenue is now estimated at approximately $8.9 billion, up $150 million from our original outlook, and adjusted EBITDA for the full year is now estimated at approximately $2.91 billion, up $50 million from our original outlook. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.7% reflects a 120 basis point year-over-year increase for 2024 and adjusted free cash flow of $1.2 billion is in line with our original outlook.

目前預計營收約為 89 億美元，比我們最初的預期增加 1.5 億美元，全年調整後 EBITDA 預計約為 29.1 億美元，比我們最初的預期增加 5,000 萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 32.7%，反映出 2024 年年增 120 個基點，調整後自由現金流為 12 億美元，符合我們最初的預期。

Looking next to Q4. Revenue is estimated to be approximately $2.24 billion and adjusted EBITDA is estimated at approximately $740 million or 33% of revenue. Normalized for the sequential decline in commodity values, special waste timing and incremental dilution from acquisitions completed during Q3, margin expansion is expected to be comparable to recent quarters. Any improvement in commodity-driven revenues or incremental volumes associated with hurricane-related cleanup activity would be additive to our outlook for Q4.

展望第四季。營收預計約 22.4 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 預計約 7.4 億美元，佔營收的 33%。考慮到商品價值連續下降、特殊浪費時間以及第三季完成的收購帶來的增量稀釋，利潤率擴張預計將與最近幾季相當。大宗商品驅動的收入或與颶風相關的清理活動相關的增量的任何改善都將有助於我們對第四季度的展望。

Depreciation and amortization expense for the fourth quarter is estimated at about 13.4% of revenue, including amortization of intangibles of about $55 million or about $0.15 per diluted share net of taxes. Interest expense, net of interest income in Q4 is estimated at approximately $82 million. And finally, our effective tax rate in Q4 is estimated at about 23.5%, subject to some variability.

第四季的折舊和攤銷費用預計約佔收入的 13.4%，其中包括約 5,500 萬美元的無形資產攤銷，即稅後每股稀釋後每股約 0.15 美元的攤銷。第四季扣除利息收入後的利息支出估計約為 8,200 萬美元。最後，我們第四季的有效稅率估計約為 23.5%，可能會有一些變化。

And now let me turn the call back over to Ron for some final remarks before Q&A.

現在讓我把電話轉回給羅恩，讓他在問答之前做一些最後的評論。

Okay. Thank you, Mary Anne.

好的。謝謝你，瑪麗安妮。

Again, we are quite pleased that our financial results continue to track above the increased expectations we communicated in July, setting us up for another increase to our full year outlook to revenue of $8.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.91 billion, that puts our 2024 year-over-year growth at over 10% in revenue and over 15% in adjusted EBITDA. Additionally, we are encouraged by the ongoing improvements in employee retention and safety, which continue to provide for longer-term savings opportunities.

我們再次感到非常高興的是，我們的財務表現繼續高於我們在7 月份傳達的預期，這為我們將全年預期再次上調至89 億美元收入和29.1 億美元調整後EBITDA 奠定了基礎，這使我們的2024 年業績達到預期目標。此外，我們對員工留任率和安全性的持續改善感到鼓舞，這繼續提供長期的節省機會。

We are also thrilled with the integration and performance of record levels of private company acquisition activity, positioning us for a strong start to 2025. Although not providing our formal outlook for 2025 until February, we're able to provide a high-level framework assuming no change in the current economic environment.

我們也對私人公司收購活動創紀錄水準的整合和表現感到興奮，這為我們在 2025 年奠定了良好的開局。儘管直到 2 月我們才提供正式的 2025 年展望，但假設當前經濟環境沒有變化，我們可以提供一個高階框架。

On that basis, we should be positioned for high single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth in 2025, on expected mid- to high single-digit revenue growth, including price-led organic growth in solid waste plus approximately 2% revenue carryover from the record levels of private company acquisition activity expected to be completed in 2024, with the potential for that amount to grow depending on the pace of acquisitions.

在此基礎上，我們應該在2025 年實現高個位數調整後EBITDA 增長，預計收入將實現中高個位數增長，包括價格主導的固體廢物有機增長，加上創紀錄水平約2% 的收入結轉的私人公司收購活動預計將於 2024 年完成，該金額有可能根據收購速度而成長。

Additionally, to the extent that we see improvement in commodity values or easing of cost pressures during the year, those impacts would be additive to these preliminary thoughts. Adjusted free cash flow conversion would be expected to remain in the current range of 45% to 50% of adjusted EBITDA normalized for ongoing impacts of RNG-related CapEx and closure-related outlays.

此外，如果我們看到年內商品價值的改善或成本壓力的緩解，這些影響將成為這些初步想法的補充。調整後的自由現金流轉換預計將保持在當前調整後 EBITDA 的 45% 至 50% 範圍內，該範圍是由於 RNG 相關資本支出和關閉相關支出的持續影響而標準化的。

We look forward to having better visibility on the tone of the economy, including any implications from the upcoming election, as well as expected commodity-driven activity and hurricane-related impacts when we provide our formal outlook in February. I want to conclude by recognizing our 24,000 employees who embody our core values and drive our results, their actions speak louder than words and are a testament to the culture of accountability that we believe sets us apart.

當我們在 2 月提供正式展望時，我們期待更好地了解經濟基調，包括即將舉行的選舉的任何影響，以及預期的大宗商品驅動的活動和颶風相關的影響。最後，我想對我們的 24,000 名員工表示認可，他們體現了我們的核心價值並推動了我們的成果，他們的行動勝於雄辯，證明了我們相信使我們與眾不同的問責文化。

Specifically, I want to acknowledge the work of our teams to manage and address the challenges of recent severe weather, including two major hurricanes in the Southeast over a 2-week period. I couldn't be prouder of their efforts to support our teams, putting safety and well-being first, while also providing essential services to public health and welfare under challenging conditions. Their commitment, as demonstrated by preparedness and diligence exemplify servant leadership and truly changes lives. We're humbled by the commitment of all our frontline employees who strive for excellence every day. We also appreciate your time today.

具體來說，我要感謝我們的團隊在管理和應對近期惡劣天氣挑戰方面所做的工作，其中包括東南部兩週內發生的兩次重大颶風。我為他們為支持我們的團隊所做的努力感到無比自豪，他們將安全和福祉放在第一位，同時還在充滿挑戰的條件下為公共衛生和福利提供基本服務。他們的承諾，透過準備和勤奮證明了僕人式領導力，真正改變了生活。我們對所有每天追求卓越的第一線員工的承諾感到謙卑。我們也感謝您今天抽出時間。

And with that, I will now turn this call over to the operator to open up the lines for your questions. Operator?

現在，我將把這個電話轉給接線員，以便為您解答問題。操作員？

Yes. Thank you.

是的。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Kevin Chiang, CIBC.

凱文·蔣，CIBC。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Congrats on a good Q3 print there. Maybe if I could just start with the comments on the special waste. You saw some pull forward from Q4 into Q3. Just broadly speaking, are you seeing any, I guess, changes in customer activity related to the election. I'm wondering if some of this activity was pulled forward as maybe some people try to get some of this activity ahead of an election, I guess, in a couple of weeks here?

您好，感謝您提出我的問題。恭喜第三季的印刷品取得了良好的成績。也許我可以先談談對特殊廢物的評論。您看到了從第四季度到第三季度的一些拉動。從廣義上講，我猜您是否看到與選舉相關的客戶活動發生任何變化？我想知道其中一些活動是否被推遲，因為也許有些人試圖在選舉之前進行一些活動，我想，在幾週後？

Good morning, Kevin. No, I don't think we'd say it specifically related to elections. I mean that can influence behavior more broadly, but we'd say specifically the projects we referenced, it was things that we had expected maybe they've gotten delayed a couple of times and we had them pegged for Q4, and they actually got done in Q3. It's as simple as that. And it was primarily on the West Coast, as we mentioned.

早安，凱文。不，我認為我們不會說它與選舉特別相關。我的意思是，這可以更廣泛地影響行為，但我們要具體說我們提到的項目，這是我們預期的事情，也許它們已經被推遲了幾次，我們將它們固定在第四季度，它們實際上已經完成了在第三季。就這麼簡單。正如我們所提到的，它主要位於西海岸。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, again, congrats on the Royal Waste deal, you noted you'll have, I guess, 17 zones in total. I believe when the commercial zone sort of initially pushed through and approved, I think the maximum is 15. So just wondering, does that require you to divest of any zones? Or I guess, because you acquired these other five through M&A that you can manage all 17 or you'll be allowed to oversee all 17 zones?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，再次恭喜皇家廢棄物交易，您指出您將總共擁有 17 個區域。我相信當商業區最初通過並獲得批准時，我認為最多是 15 個。所以只是想知道，這是否需要您剝離任何區域？或者我猜，因為您透過併購收購了另外五個區域，所以您可以管理所有 17 個區域，或者您將被允許監督所有 17 個區域？

Yeah. Kevin, okay. To clarify, number one, the cap on any individual company is 15, as you rightly pointed out. However, if there is overlap, that does not necessarily count as a new incremental zone. And there was overlap in some of the zones at Royal Waste in we had. It actually made us go to 16, and so there was one zone that we, in effect, are swapping out of because we would have been at 16 and that was part of the consent process with the BIC. So we are at the cap of 15 zones, not 17, and so that is how that works.

是的。凱文，好吧。需要澄清的是，第一，正如您正確指出的那樣，任何單一公司的上限都是 15 家。但是，如果存在重疊，則不一定算作新的增量區域。我們的皇家廢棄物中心的一些區域存在重疊。它實際上讓我們轉到了 16，因此我們實際上正在換出一個區域，因為我們本來就是 16，而這是 BIC 同意流程的一部分。所以我們的上限是 15 個區域，而不是 17 個，這就是它的運作方式。

Thank you for the clarification there. And then maybe just last one for me, and I know this is tough to predict, but RIN prices have been north of $3 pretty consistently here. When I look at D3 pricing, it's basically at the upper end of where we've seen this trend over the past few years here. I guess the volume targets go out to 2025. Just wondering what your thoughts are as the EPA might reset these targets. Do you see risk to RIN pricing? Do you think they lower the volume targets in the next 3-year batch? Just any, I guess, preliminary thoughts here as we head into 2025.

謝謝你的澄清。對我來說，也許只是最後一個，我知道這很難預測，但這裡的 RIN 價格一直在 3 美元以上。當我查看 D3 定價時，它基本上處於過去幾年我們所看到的趨勢的上限。我猜銷售目標是到 2025 年。只是想知道您的想法如何，因為美國環保署可能會重新設定這些目標。您認為 RIN 定價有風險嗎？您認為他們會降低下一個三年的銷售目標嗎？我想，在我們邁入 2025 年之際，這裡只是一些初步想法。

Sure. Well, as a reminder, RINs are a commodity, not only a commodity, they're subsidized, right? So there's inherent uncertainty which, from our perspective, really underscores the importance of the hybrid strategy we've chosen and taking the opportunity to hedge opportunistically, as we have this year at about $3 because there is an uncertainty.

當然。嗯，提醒一下，RIN 是一種商品，不僅僅是一種商品，它們還受到補貼，對吧？因此，從我們的角度來看，存在著固有的不確定性，這確實強調了我們選擇的混合策略的重要性，並利用機會進行對沖，因為存在不確定性，今年我們的價格約為 3 美元。

So we don't have a crystal ball any better than anyone else's. But as I said, I think the way we've approached RNG more broadly and mitigating the risk of movement in RINs through the structures and then opportunistic hedges is a way to address that uncertainty.

所以我們沒有比其他人更好的水晶球。但正如我所說，我認為我們更廣泛地接觸 RNG 並透過結構減輕 RIN 變動風險，然後進行機會主義對沖，是解決這種不確定性的一種方法。

Thank you very much for taking my questions.

非常感謝您回答我的問題。

Thank you, Kevin.

謝謝你，凱文。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

諾亞凱，奧本海默。

Hi, thanks very much. I want to pick up on the comments around the outlook for cost inflation. I think in our seat looking at maybe a little bit hotter CPI and inflationary trends, a little bit of potential reacceleration, what are you seeing in the business around the current pace of unit cost inflation? And how does that inform your thinking about pricing as we get ready for next year?

你好，非常感謝。我想了解一下有關成本通膨前景的評論。我認為，在我們的座位上，消費者物價指數和通膨趨勢可能會更高一些，潛在的可能會重新加速，您對當前單位成本通膨速度的業務有何看法？當我們為明年做好準備時，這對您對定價的思考有何影響？

Sure. So what we see, Noah, is pretty similar to what we've seen in recent quarters, which is that inflation -- cost inflation in our business continues to be in that 4% to 5% range, and that wage inflation, which, of course, labor being the most important driver for our numbers sits at the high end or even above the high end of that range. So I think the readthrough on that is to continue to have the need for outsized spread between price and headline CPI is what we think that means, and that's certainly what we think about as we prepare ourselves for '25.

當然。因此，諾亞，我們所看到的情況與我們最近幾季所看到的情況非常相似，那就是通貨膨脹——我們業務中的成本通貨膨脹仍然在4% 到5% 的範圍內，而薪資通貨膨脹，當然，勞動力是我們數字的最重要驅動因素，處於該範圍的高端，甚至高於該範圍的高端。因此，我認為對此的解讀是，我們認為這意味著價格和整體 CPI 之間需要繼續保持巨大的差距，這當然也是我們在為 25 世紀做好準備時所考慮的。

Okay. Great. And then just a little bit of a housekeeping on, I guess, combination of 3Q and 4Q, Mary Anne, I think you mentioned that margin expansion in 4Q would be similar to the 120 bps directionally that you saw in 3Q, but for a couple of factors. So those aggregate factors, roughly around 30 to 40 bps of margin impact, the commodities, the storms and, I guess, a little bit more M&A. Is that the right way to think about it?

好的。偉大的。然後，我想，結合第三季度和第四季度，瑪麗安妮，我想您提到第四季度的利潤率擴張將類似於您在第三季度看到的120 個基點的方向性增長，但對於幾個的因素。因此，這些綜合因素，大約對利潤率影響約 30 至 40 個基點，大宗商品、風暴以及我猜還有更多的併購。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Well, I'd say it's arguably even a little north of that because if you think about what underlying margins really did in Q3, I mean, we adjusted for those factors that we mentioned, we really delivered 34%. If you think about it, up 150 basis points because we overcame the incremental margin dilution. You actually had commodities weakened a little in Q3, not the big drop we saw in Q4. So a little movement there. And -- so then when I think about Q4, I'd say in the aggregate, those factors that you mentioned are even north of that. They're closer to 60 basis points, which really gets you back up to that same type of level.

嗯，我想說，這甚至可以說有點高了，因為如果你考慮一下第三季度的基本利潤率，我的意思是，我們根據我們提到的那些因素進行了調整，我們確實實現了34% 。如果你仔細想想，上漲了 150 個基點，因為我們克服了增量利潤稀釋。事實上，大宗商品在第三季略有疲軟，而不是我們在第四季看到的大幅下跌。那裡有一點動靜。而且，當我想到第四季時，我想說，總的來說，你提到的那些因素甚至超出了這一點。它們接近 60 個基點，這確實可以讓您回到相同類型的水平。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

傑瑞·雷維奇，高盛。

Hi. Good morning. This is Adam Bubes on for Jerry Revich. Wondering if you can just update us on how landfill gas investments are tracking. And how much is that set to contribute in 2024? What could be the possible incremental step-up next year?

你好。早安.我是亞當·布布斯 (Adam Bubes) 替補傑裡·雷維奇 (Jerry Revich)。想知道您是否可以向我們介紹垃圾掩埋氣投資的最新情況。到 2024 年，這將貢獻多少？明年可能的增量升級是什麼？

Yeah. So I think the good news, bad news on this, Adam. There is -- we have brought on three new facilities in '24, at this point and a fourth is just going through its initiation phase to be certified. So we will get four online this year, and that was our expectation. There has been certainly delays in those projects, which seemingly is happening.

是的。所以我認為這有好消息，也有壞消息，亞當。我們在 24 年引進了三個新設施，目前第四個設施剛進入啟動階段並獲得認證。所以今年我們將有四個線上服務，這是我們的預期。這些項目肯定出現了延誤，而這似乎正在發生。

And most of them, both from a logistics standpoint and a permitting standpoint, but they are getting done. The four we are bringing on this year are some of our smaller ones we will be bringing on -- so it's a pretty de minimis impact to '24. The impact to '25 is a little greater, but still fairly low, and most of our large projects don't come on until the very end of '25 and throughout '26.

其中大多數，無論是從後勤的角度還是從許可的角度來看，但它們都已經完成了。我們今年帶來的四個是我們將要帶來的一些較小的——所以這對 24 世紀的影響相當小。對 25 年的影響稍大一些，但仍然相當低，而且我們的大多數大型專案直到 25 年末和整個 26 年才開始實施。

So they really began construction in '25. So you're going to see a little step-up improvement in '25 over '24, and then quite a step-up in '26 and then a full impact as '27 comes through on a run rate basis coming out of '26.

所以他們真正開始建造是在 25 年。所以你會看到'25比'24有一點進步，然後在'26有相當大的進步，然後在'27基於'26的運行率基礎上產生全面影響。

And then how should we be thinking about a growth CapEx next year compared to 2024? And is there a potential for a free cash flow conversion inflection just on a higher margin base and as these landfill gas investments start to ramp?

那麼與 2024 年相比，我們該如何考慮明年的資本支出成長？隨著這些垃圾掩埋氣投資開始增加，僅在較高的利潤基礎上是否有可能出現自由現金流轉換拐點？

Well, we gave our preliminary framework. It's -- we typically give the detailed guidance in February, as you know, and we talked about the fact that, that on a normalized basis, the conversion, we'd expect to be similar at this point in time. I can appreciate what you're asking, is there an opportunity from those incremental RNG contributions, which as Ron said [technical difficulty] which is why when we gave our preliminary thoughts for the year, we didn't mention either.

好了，我們給了一個初步的框架。如您所知，我們通常會在二月提供詳細的指導，並且我們討論了這樣一個事實，即在標準化的基礎上，我們預計此時的轉換情況會類似。我可以理解你問的問題，這些增量 RNG 貢獻是否有機會，正如 Ron 所說的[技術難度]，這就是為什麼當我們給出今年的初步想法時，我們沒有提到。

Obviously, Adam, the only thing I would add is, as I said, we have full contribution of the full year in '27 come as of RNG, meaning you're effectively done with your CapEx by the end of '26 on those. And at that point, you have the full EBITDA contribution and no real CapEx contribution, and that certainly is an inflection point to a higher level of conversion.

顯然，Adam，我唯一要補充的是，正如我所說，我們在 27 年的全年貢獻了 RNG 的全部貢獻，這意味著到 26 年底，您已經有效地完成了這些資本支出。到那時，你就擁有了全部的 EBITDA 貢獻，而沒有真正的資本支出貢獻，這當然是更高水準轉換的轉折點。

Great, thanks so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tyler Brown, Raymond James.

泰勒布朗，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Hi. Good morning.

你好。早安.

Good morning, Tyler.

早安，泰勒。

Mary Anne, real quick. I think you may have actually answered my question a second ago. But on the margin just in Q3, I think they were up 120 basis points, but it sounds like M&A and the storms were maybe 30 basis points of a drag. Is that right? Just basically getting to the fact that core margins were, let's call it, very, very solid this quarter.

瑪麗安妮，真快。我想你可能在一秒鐘前就已經回答了我的問題。但就第三季的利潤而言，我認為它們上漲了 120 個基點，但聽起來併購和風暴可能拖累了 30 個基點。是這樣嗎？基本上，我們可以說，本季的核心利潤率非常非常穩定。

Yeah. What I'd say, 30 basis points for those two factors, you said. And then as I mentioned, there was some incremental weakness in commodities, which also influenced and the aggregate...

是的。你說，我想說的是，這兩個因素需要 30 個基點。正如我所提到的，大宗商品出現了一些增量疲軟，這也影響了整體...

Okay. Aggregate. Did you give an OCC price? Can you update us on what OCC is for Q3, maybe where it is today? And then any update on your like commodity sensitivity to OCC?

好的。總計的。有給OCC價格嗎？您能否向我們介紹一下第三季 OCC 的最新情況，也許是今天的情況？那麼您對 OCC 類似商品的敏感度有什麼更新嗎？

Sure. So the average for Q3 was $139, and my point about the weakness coming into the quarter, we'd expected $145, and that's where it was in July. And they've now stepped down and about a 10% move on the basket more broadly is about $25 million.

當然。因此，第三季的平均價格為 139 美元，而我對本季疲軟的觀點是，我們預計為 145 美元，這就是 7 月的情況。現在他們已經下台了，籃子裡大約有 10% 的變動，更廣泛地說，大約是 2500 萬美元。

Okay. Perfect. And then, Ron, just I was hoping if we could get an update on Chiquita. We're about a year removed from that event escalating. There's some chatter in the market and some articles in the news. Can you just Help us understand the latest there? And then maybe any update on your spending plans for Chiquita here in '24 and then into '25. Just any broad color, I'd appreciate it.

好的。完美的。然後，羅恩，我只是希望我們能得到有關奇基塔的最新消息。我們距離該事件升級大約一年了。市場上有一些議論，新聞中也有一些文章。您能幫助我們了解那裡的最新情況嗎？然後也許是關於您在 24 年和 25 年對 Chiquita 的支出計劃的任何更新。只要是任何廣泛的顏色，我都會很感激。

Sure. No problem. The short version, Tyler, is Chiquita is proceeding basically along the same plan that we originally thought. The reaction area is an area of about 39 to 40 acres. We've made substantial progress on the reaction throughout the course of '24, gave you some statistics.

當然。沒問題。簡短的版本，泰勒，是奇基塔基本上沿著我們最初設想的相同計劃進行。反應區面積約39至40英畝。24 年期間，我們在反應方面取得了實質進展，給了你們一些統計數據。

We have drilled 240 wells in and around the reaction area, that is complete. We have put submersible pumps in about 55% to 60% of our wells. We will finish the remaining submersible pumps through the course of Q4, maybe a little trickle into Q1.

我們已經在反應區及其周圍鑽了 240 口井，已經完成。我們大約 55% 至 60% 的油井安裝了潛水泵。我們將在第四季度完成剩餘的潛水泵，也許一點點進入第一季。

We believe that the leachate level has effectively peaked in Q3 as we thought it would and started to come back down by about 10% to 15% recently. Now as we add pumps that will go up a little bit before it really starts to drop as we get out of the first quarter of '25. In addition to that, we have the reaction area of about 40 acres.

我們認為，滲濾液水平實際上已在第三季達到我們預期的峰值，並且最近開始回落約 10% 至 15%。現在，當我們添加泵浦時，泵浦在 25 年第一季結束後真正開始下降之前會上升一點。除此之外，我們還有約40英畝的反應面積。

We have capped with a geosynthetic cap over 99% of that at this point, with only about 0.3 acres remaining to be done and that will be done over the next three to four weeks, and then it will be fully sealed from a cap standpoint.

目前，我們已經用土工合成材料封頂了其中99% 以上的土地，只剩下約0.3 英畝的土地需要完成，這將在接下來的三到四個星期內完成，然後從封頂的角度來看，它將被完全密封。

And I think most importantly, there was unified regulatory agency oversight committee led by the EPA along with various California state regulatory agencies and local regulatory agencies that were all involved in the reaction very diligently on a day-to-day basis, along with our teams and our outside teams. And that committee was abandoned by the direction of the EPA two weeks ago and returned to normal local regulatory oversight. So I think that's an indication of the agency's view of where things are at, that everything that is known to be done and working and proceeding along their expectations.

我認為最重要的是，有由 EPA 領導的統一監管機構監督委員會以及加州各州監管機構和地方監管機構，他們與我們的團隊一起非常勤奮地參與日常反應以及我們的外部團隊。兩週前，該委員會在美國環保局的指示下被放棄，並恢復正常的地方監管。所以我認為這表明了該機構對事情現狀的看法，即已知的一切都按照他們的期望完成、工作和進行。

So I would tell you that we're about where we thought we would be, this is L.A., this is an election year, a very contested local and state election in and around the Southern California Basin with two weeks to go in the political process. And I would say that 95% of what you read in the media is political posturing one day to the next as people are scraping for votes at the final hours. I think actually the reality of the agency's response speaks to the truth and the other is much like most political messages.

所以我想告訴你，我們已經達到了我們的預期，這是洛杉磯，這是一個選舉年，南加州盆地及其周邊地區將舉行一場競爭非常激烈的地方和州選舉，政治進程還有兩週時間。我想說，你在媒體上讀到的 95% 的內容都是日復一日的政治姿態，因為人們在最後幾個小時爭奪選票。我認為實際上該機構的回應反映了事實，而其他方面與大多數政治訊息相似。

Okay. Perfect. And then just big picture though, there should be I know you guys have put a finer point on it, on January or February, but the spin should step down just directionally?

好的。完美的。然後只是大局，我知道你們在一月或二月對此提出了更好的觀點，但旋轉應該定向減弱？

Sure, Tyler. With respect to as compared to '24, yes, spend should step down. And yes, we will update our models and give -- have firmer numbers. But if you were looking for a placeholder for how to think about '25, based on what we know today, we'd estimate that to be in the range of $50 million to $75 million.

當然，泰勒。與 24 年相比，是的，支出應該會減少。是的，我們將更新我們的模型並給出更可靠的數字。但如果您要尋找一個佔位符來思考如何看待“25”，根據我們今天所知，我們估計該金額在 5,000 萬至 7,500 萬美元之間。

All right, thank you so much.

好的，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

科納克·古普塔，豐業銀行。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Just on the M&A, Ron. You guys have done a lot of M&A this year. Obviously, it's an outsized year clearly, and you're seeing the benefits in 2025. But as we look out, obviously, in your space right now, this solid waste market has consolidated to a large degree. Obviously, you still have a lot of opportunities, you mentioned and then like your competitors are obviously involved in some sort of nonsolid waste M&A processes right now.

謝謝，接線生。大家早安。就在併購方面，羅恩。你們今年做了很多併購。顯然，這是非常重要的一年，您將在 2025 年看到好處。但正如我們所看到的，顯然，目前在您所在的領域，這個固體廢棄物市場已經在很大程度上得到了鞏固。顯然，您仍然有很多機會，您提到，然後您的競爭對手現在顯然參與了某種非固體廢物併購流程。

When we look out to 2025, what are some of the opportunities that you'd be looking at which may be in solid waste or outside of solid waste? And what's really the focus here? Like are you looking at more sort of from a ROIC perspective or more sort of from a strategic perspective, sorry, where you need more density?

當我們展望 2025 年時，您會關注哪些可能存在於固體廢棄物中或固體廢棄物之外的機會？這裡真正的焦點是什麼？就像你是更多地從投資報酬率的角度來看，還是更多地從策略的角度來看，抱歉，你需要更高的密度？

Yeah. Well, I mean, a lot of things within that question. Look, the M&A market is unchanged. It remains robust. We continue to focus on the core solid waste opportunities. I think some of our larger competitors have focused on some areas outside of solid waste for individual reasons. The HSR process remains difficult, I think, particularly in the more concentrated urban areas where some of our larger competitors sit more broadly, and that makes that a little more challenging on some solid waste acquisitions for them. In our more suburban and franchise markets, that is less generally of an issue. And so that has provided us, I'd say, a little more of a pathway in solid ways.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，這個問題包含很多內容。看，併購市場沒有變動。它仍然保持強勁。我們持續關注核心固體廢棄物機會。我認為我們的一些較大的競爭對手出於個人原因而專注於固體廢物以外的某些領域。我認為，高鐵進程仍然很困難，特別是在更集中的城市地區，我們的一些較大的競爭對手分佈更廣泛，這使得他們在一些固體廢物收購方面更具挑戰性。在我們的郊區和特許經營市場中，這通常不是一個問題。我想說，這為我們提供了更可靠的途徑。

So look, we see -- we have no plans to pivot from the solid waste approach. Obviously, we have done some E&P stuff, which is we've been doing since 2012, that's nothing new. And we'll continue to sort of stick to our knitting. We see a lot of opportunity there. There's still $4.5 billion or so of private company opportunities in markets that we are in or that are analogous to markets that we are in.

所以，我們看到——我們沒有計劃放棄固體廢物處理方法。顯然，我們已經做了一些勘探與生產的工作，這是我們自 2012 年以來一直在做的事情，這不是什麼新鮮事。我們將繼續堅持我們的編織。我們在那裡看到了很多機會。在我們所在的市場或與我們所在的市場類似的市場中，仍有價值約 45 億美元的私人公司機會。

We look at everything on a strategic basis first, to answer your question. And then we look to an IRR, ROIC type model, no matter of the size of the transaction we're looking at. So what you're going to see from us is more of the same, is the way I would say it. I mean, I can't sit here and tell you we're going to have a $700 million year next year because that was a record year, but I can tell you we feel comfortable with exceeding our traditional sort of $150 million to $250 million, and it'd probably be somewhere in between. So I think we're set up for a very good year.

我們先從策略角度看待一切，然後回答你的問題。然後，無論我們正在研究的交易規模有多大，我們都會考慮 IRR、ROIC 類型的模型。所以你將從我們身上看到的更多是相同的，這就是我所說的方式。我的意思是，我不能坐在這裡告訴你明年我們將有 7 億美元，因為那是創紀錄的一年，但我可以告訴你，我們對超過傳統的 1.5 億至 2.5 億美元感到滿意，並且可能介於兩者之間。所以我認為我們已經為美好的一年做好了準備。

That's great color. Thanks. And in terms of the storms and the opportunities around them, can you size them up for us maybe in terms of what are you looking for from a cleanup perspective as well as some of these communities will obviously be rebuilding. So there might be some construction activity required there. So any thoughts on the opportunity there in the next few months?

那顏色真棒。謝謝。就風暴及其周圍的機會而言，您能否為我們評估它們，也許從清理的角度來看您正在尋找什麼，以及其中一些社區顯然正在重建。因此那裡可能需要一些建設活動。那麼對未來幾個月的機會有什麼想法嗎？

Yeah. Look, I think we're only less than a couple of weeks into the aftermath of two pretty devastating hurricanes between Helene and Milton, as you know. And I think to -- let's say, as we said in our comments, look, initially, in that first month to two months after the hurricane, it initially impacts you a little negatively on some of your cost structure and just the market has to settle down and people have to get back to and figure out what their insurance opportunities are, et cetera. But then what we see in the generally three to four quarters following that is we see if our landfills are positioned well, that we see a reasonable opportunity.

是的。聽著，如你所知，海倫和米爾頓之間發生的兩場毀滅性颶風剛剛過去不到幾週。我認為，正如我們在評論中所說，最初，在颶風過後的第一個月到兩個月內，它最初會對您的一些成本結構產生一些負面影響，而市場必須這樣做安定下來，人們必須重新思考他們的保險機會是什麼，等等。但我們在接下來的三到四個季度中看到的是，如果我們的垃圾掩埋場位置良好，我們將看到一個合理的機會。

Now I'm not saying this is the case because we don't know. It's too early, right? But Hurricane Ian, which was the last major hurricane that hit at the end of '22, you may or may not know, but we reported about $15 million in incremental revenue at our landfill in Western Florida, on the following four quarters of the hurricane.

現在我並不是說情況確實如此，因為我們不知道。太早了，對吧？但是，伊恩颶風是22 年底襲擊的最後一場大型颶風，您可能知道，也可能不知道，但我們報告稱，在接下來的四個季度裡，佛羅裡達州西部的垃圾掩埋場增加了約1500 萬美元的收入。

Now in the case of Hurricane Ian, we really only had one landfill in the area of impact, this time, we've got two, arguably three. So if it's similar, we should see probably something in north of that, but it's really too early to tell you. But that gives you an idea of the type of impacts that a major hurricane can have depending on your asset positioning.

現在，就颶風伊恩而言，我們在影響區域實際上只有一個垃圾掩埋場，而這一次，我們有兩個，可以說是三個。因此，如果它相似，我們應該會在北部看到一些東西，但現在告訴你還為時過早。但這可以讓您了解大型颶風可能產生的影響類型，這取決於您的資產定位。

Thanks so much. I appreciate the time.

非常感謝。我很感激時間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Murray, ATB Capital Markets.

Chris Murray，ATB 資本市場。

Yeah. Thanks folks. Good morning. Ron, maybe can you spend some time talking a little bit about the E&P business. Not only kind of the conventional business, but maybe if we could get some color maybe on how the integration of Secure assets are going. And I think you also made comments in your script that you actually had maybe done some small E&P acquisitions. So any color on how you're seeing the business evolving and that integration going would be helpful.

是的。謝謝各位。早安.羅恩，也許你能花點時間談談勘探與生產業務。不僅是傳統業務，如果我們能夠了解安全資產整合的進展情況，也許還可以。我認為您還在腳本中評論說您實際上可能進行了一些小型勘探與生產收購。因此，任何關於您如何看待業務發展和整合進展的顏色都會有所幫助。

Sure. Thank you, Chris. Look, the E&P business right now is performing very well. I'd say we're sort of firing on all cylinders within our legacy business in the US, it's up about 10% year-over-year despite rig activity being down, that is led by a strong activity in the Permian. Our R360 Canada business, which is what we call the former Secure business you referenced is in line and actually better in revenue and EBITDA than our original expectations that we provided on that transaction. We have done an additional bolt-on acquisition to R360 Canada this year. We have done another additional bolt-on acquisition in the Permian to solidify our position.

當然。謝謝你，克里斯。看起來，勘探開發業務現在表現得非常好。我想說的是，我們在美國的傳統業務正在全速運轉，儘管鑽井活動有所下降，但由於二疊紀盆地的強勁活動導致，該業務仍同比增長了約 10%。我們的 R360 加拿大業務，即您提到的前 Secure 業務，其收入和 EBITDA 與我們對該交易提供的最初預期相符，而且實際上更好。今年我們對 R360 Canada 進行了額外的補強收購。我們在二疊紀又進行了一次額外的補強收購，以鞏固我們的地位。

So look, our E&P business is a disposal and transfer business. That is what it has always been, and that is why it's such a high-margin business. We're not in any logistics component business or transportation business within an E&P. We are really just purely a disposal business for solids and some pipe water. Right now, I would tell you that, that business is about a run rate of $550 million.

所以你看，我們的勘探開發業務是處置和轉讓業務。這就是它一直以來的情況，這就是為什麼它是一項利潤率如此高的業務。我們不從事勘探與生產內的任何物流組件業務或運輸業務。我們實際上只是純粹的固體和一些管道水處理業務。現在，我可以告訴你，該業務的運作率約為 5.5 億美元。

It's about USD 300 million, about CAD 250 million. So I think that puts it probably about 5.8% to 6% of total revs, about 8.2% of EBITDA. We're very comfortable with those numbers and those percentages. But I think if you stick to the disposal piece of this business, that's a 50% type business, like our disposal businesses in our normal solid waste as well. So that's how we think of the business, and we'll continue to do some more there opportunistically. I don't ever see it becoming more than it is as a percentage, but it's a good business.

約3億美元，約加元2.5億。所以我認為這可能佔總轉速的 5.8% 到 6% 左右，即 EBITDA 的 8.2% 左右。我們對這些數字和百分比感到非常滿意。但我認為如果你堅持這個業務的處置部分，那是一個50%類型的業務，就像我們普通固體廢物的處置業務一樣。這就是我們對業務的看法，我們將繼續機會主義地在這方面做更多的事情。我從來沒有看到它會超過它的百分比，但這是一個很好的生意。

Okay. Thanks. That's helpful. My other question, it kind of goes a bit to the people and culture piece of it. So I think you made the comment that turnover is down about 40%. So maybe a little bit of color around what that means? I'm assuming that would take your kind of turnover number into the low double digits. But maybe if you want to clarify that. But the other piece of that, and when I think about doing such large numbers of acquisitions in the year, and I appreciate that it's not a massive number of folks relative to the rest of the organization, but any thoughts around the kind of efforts that you have to go through, in terms of integrating all of these businesses, in terms of either servant leadership or sort of the cultural attributes for Connections that are maybe a little bit unique? And how do you preserve that culture as you continue to bigger, especially if you keep on this pace of acquisitions?

好的。謝謝。這很有幫助。我的另一個問題，這有點涉及它的人和文化部分。所以我認為您說過營業額下降了約 40%。那麼也許有點色彩說明這代表什麼？我假設這會將您的營業額數字降低到兩位數。但也許如果你想澄清這一點。但另一方面，當我考慮在這一年中進行如此大量的收購時，我意識到，相對於組織的其他部分而言，這並不是大量的人員，而是圍繞這種努力的任何想法在整合所有這些業務方面，您必須經歷僕人式領導或連結的文化屬性（可能有點獨特）？當你繼續擴大規模時，尤其是如果你繼續保持這種收購步伐，你如何保持這種文化？

Well, very good question. And number one, I think you're actually hitting on arguably the most important thing that we do and the greatest differentiator of our model and culture, to be quite honest. And I'll tell you why, but let me answer your question first. We reduced total turnover on a run rate basis in Q3 to about 24% total, but our voluntary turnover, which is what we focus on the most, is down in the 13.5% to 14% range. And that is a quite dramatic drop over the last five or six quarters.

嗯，非常好的問題。第一，老實說，我認為你實際上談到了我們所做的最重要的事情，以及我們模式和文化的最大差異化因素。我會告訴你原因，但讓我先回答你的問題。我們將第三季以運行率計算的總營業額減少至約 24%，但我們最關注的自願營業額下降了 13.5% 至 14%。在過去五、六個季度中，這一數字出現了相當大的下降。

Our target is to get that total turnover down from 24% down into the 19% to 20% level in 2025, and get that voluntary down into the 10% level from the 13.5% or so it is now. So we believe those are, again, value drivers that we'll see -- that will help outsize margin growth in 2025.

我們的目標是到 2025 年將總營業額從 24% 降低到 19% 到 20% 的水平，並將自願比例從現在的 13.5% 左右降低到 10% 的水平。因此，我們相信這些將再次成為我們將看到的價值驅動因素，這將有助於在 2025 年實現大幅利潤成長。

Secondly, look, although we have a record amount of transactions, $700 million in revenue, it will end up being about 30 to 35 deals. When you think about it in that way, your average deal is $20 million to $25 million. The largest one being about $200 million, many being sub-10 on. And so we operate from 570 locations with over 350 P&L managers.

其次，儘管我們的交易量創紀錄，收入達到 7 億美元，但最終交易數量將達到 30 到 35 筆。當您這樣想時，您的平均交易金額為 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元。其中最大的一筆金額約為 2 億美元，其中許多金額不到 10 美元。因此，我們在 570 個地點開展業務，擁有超過 350 名損益經理。

The bite size of our acquisition transactions allows for very fast assimilation and our decentralized operating structure puts that responsibility for cultural integration at a local level with our district management team, along with support from our divisional and regional and corporate teams.

我們收購交易的規模可以非常快速地實現同化，而我們的去中心化營運結構則將地方層級的文化融合責任交給了我們的區域管理團隊，並得到了我們的部門、區域和企業團隊的支持。

So we view speed of integration as a huge cultural issue to changing trajectory of margin performance of a deal, safety performance of a deal, turnover performance of a deal, pricing performance of a deal. Traditionally, those are not real strengths of private companies. Sometimes they are, such as in the case of Royal Waste, that I mentioned, but they're somewhat unique. So speed and the insertion generally of a historical Waste Connections, operating manager, financial manager, marketing manager is critical.

因此，我們將整合速度視為一個巨大的文化議題，會改變交易的利潤績效、交易的安全績效、交易的營業額績效、交易的定價績效的軌跡。傳統上，這些並不是私人公司的真正優勢。有時它們是這樣的，例如我提到的皇家廢物的情況，但它們有點獨特。因此，歷史廢物連接、營運經理、財務經理、行銷經理的速度和插入通常至關重要。

And I think we avoid cultural dilution by that approach because otherwise, M&A is something that can affect cultural dilution very quickly. And our servant leadership-led culture as we define it, puts the hospice on our people to bring that team that we acquired up to our standard and help them be successful as quick as possible. So it's somewhat to be honest, a secret sauce of what we do.

我認為我們可以透過這種方法避免文化稀釋，因為否則，併購會很快影響文化稀釋。正如我們所定義的，我們以僕人式領導為主導的文化，對我們的員工給予臨終關懷，使我們收購的團隊達到我們的標準，並幫助他們盡快取得成功。所以說實話，這是我們工作的秘訣。

Okay, that's helpful. All right folks, thanks very much.

好的，這很有幫助。好的，各位，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

James Schumm, TD Cowen.

詹姆斯·舒姆，TD·考恩。

Hi, good morning guys. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one, just what are you seeing in terms of your churn rates in your non-franchise markets and your ability to maintain price increases at these levels?

嗨，大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是，您對非特許經營市場的流失率以及維持這些水準的價格上漲的能力有何看法？

Yeah. I mean, what I would tell you, James, is that it continues to improve. We were looking at this, obviously, in preparation for our budgeting process for 2025, in preparation for this call, seeing how we're doing year-to-date in all of our areas, and it continues to improve. Our churn rate now is lower than it was in 2021 coming out of the pandemic and definitely lower than hyperinflation of '22 and '23. We are back to sort of a pre-2020 level or thereabout. And obviously, when you have hyperinflation and you're putting in double-digit type rate increases, you're going to see sort of maximum churn rates. So that's expected.

是的。我的意思是，詹姆斯，我要告訴你的是，它正在不斷改進。顯然，我們正在考慮這一點，為 2025 年的預算流程做準備，為這次電話會議做準備，看看我們今年迄今為止在所有領域的表現如何，並且它在不斷改進。我們現在的客戶流失率低於 2021 年疫情結束後的水平，而且絕對低於 22 年和 23 年的惡性通貨膨脹。我們回到了 2020 年之前的水平左右。顯然，當出現惡性通貨膨脹並且您的利率增加達到兩位數時，您將看到最大的客戶流失率。所以這是預期的。

But we are seeing that continuing to improve. We target a retention of our price increases of north of 85% to 90%. We still remain comfortable with those numbers, and that's what we're getting. And again, look, you also saw our volume step up 90 basis points. Some of that is less impact anniversarying of contracts we shed, but some of it is also some improvement in churn.

但我們看到這種情況持續改善。我們的目標是將價格漲幅保持在 85% 至 90% 以上。我們仍然對這些數字感到滿意，這就是我們得到的。再說一遍，您還看到我們的交易量增加了 90 個基點。其中一些是我們放棄的合約週年紀念日影響較小，但其中一些也是客戶流失率的一些改善。

Okay. Great. And then just regarding Arrowhead, are you diverting such large volumes of waste from the Northeast, such that it could impact pricing at Northeast landfills? Or do you believe that your Arrowhead volumes will have a de minimis impact there?

好的。偉大的。然後就箭頭而言，您是否從東北地區轉移如此大量的廢物，這可能會影響東北垃圾掩埋場的定價？或者您認為您的《Arrowhead》卷會在那裡產生微乎其微的影響嗎？

I believe in aggregate that would have a de minimis. I think the reality is, as much of what we're diverting and to use that term, I'd say it's internalizing is volumes that were -- of ours that were going to a third party until we got the capacity at Arrowhead and other sites to be able to do it. So no, I do not believe so. And in fact, in some cases, we're diverting our own volume to be able to take higher-priced volume from the third-party markets in local areas where they don't have as much choice. So if anything, I think it actually is a boost to disposal pricing in the Northeast on a sustained basis.

我相信總的來說，這將是微乎其微的。我認為現實是，正如我們正在轉移並使用這個術語一樣，我想說的是，它內部化的是我們的捲，這些卷將被轉移到第三方，直到我們獲得了 Arrowhead 和其他公司的能力。能夠做到這一點的網站。所以不，我不相信是這樣。事實上，在某些情況下，我們正在轉移自己的銷售量，以便能夠從當地第三方市場獲得更高價格的銷量，因為當地地區的第三方市場沒有太多選擇。因此，如果有的話，我認為這實際上持續推動了東北地區的處置定價。

Okay, great. Thank you. I'll turn it back.

好的，太好了。謝謝。我會把它轉回來。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sabahat Khan, RBC Capital Markets.

Sabahat Khan，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Great. Thanks. Good morning. We talked a little bit about this last quarter as the macro is evolving. But just wondering as you talk about 5% pricing-led growth into 2025, how are your perspectives evolving on the macro, some of the cyclical units and just volumes in general? And maybe some of the puts-and-takes if you can share on the volume front.

偉大的。謝謝。早安.隨著宏觀經濟的發展，我們在上個季度對此進行了一些討論。但我想知道，當您談論到 2025 年定價主導的增長為 5% 時，您對宏觀、一些週期性單位和總體交易量的看法如何演變？如果您可以在交易量方面分享的話，也許還有一些看跌期權。

Sure. So just to clarify on that preliminary framework we provided for '25, that would imply kind of mid-single-digit price plus volume. And so really where that ultimately shakes out, how much is price, what volumes ultimately look like, we'll be providing when we do give guidance in February.

當然。因此，為了澄清我們為 25 年提供的初步框架，這意味著價格加銷量為中等個位數。因此，最終的結果是什麼、價格是多少、銷售最終會是什麼樣子，我們將在二月提供指導時提供。

What we can say is what we're seeing out there now and with the impact of our continued shedding and the contract nonrenewal that we've done, which is what's driving the negative volumes, we're encouraged that we did see the improvement in our Western region, but we had acknowledged, as I said in prepared remarks, 3% volume growth would be very strong even in a strong economy. That tells you it's anomalistic.

我們可以說的是我們現在所看到的情況，由於我們持續的裁員和我們已經完成的合約不續約的影響，這是導致負面銷售的原因，我們感到鼓舞的是，我們確實看到了改善我們的西部地區，但正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們承認，即使在經濟強勁的情況下，3% 的銷量增長也將非常強勁。這告訴你這是反常的。

That's a piece of that is just timing of special waste. But again, still encouraged, if I look back to last quarter, that same Western region had volumes of 1.5%. So underlying volumes are positive. That's a good thing, but the continued shedding or the continued impact of that shedding would persist until we've anniversaried all of them. And so that will dictate the pace of the volume recovery on a reported basis in '25. So again, we'll look forward to giving you that color when we give guidance in February.

這只是特殊浪費的一部分。但再次令人鼓舞的是，如果我回顧上個季度，同一西部地區的銷量為 1.5%。因此基礎成交量是正值。這是一件好事，但持續的脫落或脫落的持續影響將持續存在，直到我們所有的周年紀念日為止。因此，這將決定 25 年報告的銷售恢復速度。再次強調，當我們在二月提供指導時，我們將期待為您提供這種顏色。

Okay. Great. And then Ron provided a bit of color on how you think about integration of M&A. Just I guess in a high-volume era like this, it sounds like the next year, maybe not as big, but still a big one. How are you guys sort of thinking about the integration of these? And obviously, a lot of them are maybe smaller deals. But just if you can just talk about the capacity to integrate these assets and also maybe maintain maybe a bit of an above normal elevated pace into 2025 on the M&A front?

好的。偉大的。然後羅恩就您如何看待併購整合提供了一些見解。我想在這樣一個高容量的時代，聽起來明年可能不會那麼大，但仍然是一個大的一年。你們如何思考這些的整合？顯然，其中很多可能都是較小的交易。但如果您能談談整合這些資產的能力，並且在併購方面可能在 2025 年之前保持高於正常水平的加快步伐，會怎麼樣？

Yeah. Well, first off, just to clarify again, I just said that, hey, I'm not sure that we can have another record year. It doesn't mean we won't. But as we sit here today, it's probably too early to say that, but what I did say is that we continue to believe that M&A will be elevated and that we feel very comfortable with something in excess of our maybe historical $150 million to $250 million, which is more of that couple 2%, 3% type years is what we said.

是的。好吧，首先，再次澄清一下，我只是說，嘿，我不確定我們能否再創紀錄的一年。這並不意味著我們不會。但當我們今天坐在這裡時，現在說這個可能還為時過早，但我確實說的是，我們仍然相信併購將會增加，並且我們對超過我們可能歷史上的1.5 億至2.5 億美元的東西感到非常滿意，這更多的是我們所說的那對 2%、3% 類型的年份。

So I want to clarify that. Look, if anything, I think we're better set up now because we've reduced open head count by over 50% through the reduction of turnover and other initiatives and continuing to drive that lower into next year, we're better positioned to integrate more M&A than we have been maybe ever. So it won't be -- there will not be any excuse of an inability to integrate and oversee M&A as a reason there wouldn't be a record year. It would just be that, that's opportunistic. I think from an ability to handle it, we're in actually in very, very good shape right now.

所以我想澄清這一點。聽著，如果有什麼不同的話，我認為我們現在已經做好了更好的準備，因為我們通過減少營業額和其他舉措，已經將空缺人數減少了50% 以上，並在明年繼續降低空缺人數，我們更有能力整合的併購可能比以往任何時候都多。因此，不會有任何藉口說無法整合和監督併購，作為今年不會創紀錄的原因。這只是機會主義的。我認為從處理能力來看，我們現在的狀態其實非常非常好。

Great. Thanks very much for the call.

偉大的。非常感謝您的來電。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stephanie Yee, JPMorgan.

史蒂芬妮·葉，摩根大通。

Hi. Good morning. I wanted to ask if there's anything you're worried about as we're kind of heading into the election. Any potential changes that you might anticipate for the waste industry?

你好。早安.我想問您是否有什麼擔心的事情，因為我們即將進入選舉。您預計垃圾處理行業可能會發生什麼潛在變化？

Well, I mean, Stephanie, number one, we have no better crystal ball than you or any poll that's done every day that changes by the hour. Look, our -- we have operated under both a Democratic or Republican presidency, as well as a Democratic or Republican houses of Congress, and it's our responsibility to react what comes and to excel and do so. And we've done that, and we're confident we will continue to be. I think there's puts and takes no matter what happens within the White House or within Congress, there's nothing that we're afraid of from either. Maybe one way you could say there's incremental regulation and some people say, well, that's more difficult.

嗯，我的意思是，史蒂芬妮，第一，我們沒有比你或任何每天進行的、每小時都在變化的民意調查更好的水晶球了。看，我們的——我們在民主黨或共和黨的總統任期以及民主黨或共和黨的國會眾議院中運作，我們有責任對即將發生的事情做出反應並表現出色並做到這一點。我們已經做到了這一點，我們有信心繼續這樣做。我認為無論白宮內部或國會內部發生什麼，都會有變化，我們都沒有什麼好害怕的。也許你可以說有漸進式監管的一種方式，但有些人說，嗯，這更困難。

Well, that provides us greater pricing leverage to be quite honest. The other way says, well, there'll be less regulation. Well, that provides us faster M&A track record. So I think there's benefits that you can derive from either. They look a little different, but we're not overly concerned about the outcome of the election other than rhetoric that bleeds into the business and questions. So you'll hear us have a plan either way to excel next year.

老實說，這為我們提供了更大的定價槓桿。另一種說法是，監管會減少。嗯，這為我們提供了更快的併購記錄。所以我認為你可以從這兩者中獲得好處。它們看起來有點不同，但除了影響業務和議題的言論之外，我們並不過分關心選舉結果。因此，您會聽到我們有一個計劃，無論哪種方式，明年都會取得優異的成績。

Okay. I appreciate that. And just a clarification question. I think there were comments that in 2025, you're still expecting above-average underlying margin expansion. I know on a reported basis, there are some headwinds like with the commodity price, maybe dilution from the M&A. But in terms of the underlying margin expansion, would you say it's similar or you expect it to be similar in '25, to what you anticipate you'll do in '24? Or will it be a little less just because the pricing and cost environment is changing?

好的。我很欣賞這一點。只是一個澄清問題。我認為有人評論說，到 2025 年，您仍然預計基礎利潤率擴張將高於平均水平。我知道，根據報道，存在一些不利因素，例如大宗商品價格，也許是併購帶來的稀釋。但就潛在的利潤率擴張而言，您是否認為 25 年的情況與您預計 24 年的情況類似，或者您預計會類似？還是只是因為定價和成本環境改變而減少一點？

I think what you said is accurate. I think you would see the underlying approximate close to what you saw in 2024, which was extremely strong. But to your comment, the reported might be a little less because you have some headwinds, particularly right now, as you said, such as commodities, such as some margin dilution from typical M&A and a high level of M&A that we've done. So it will still be, I think, on a reported basis, quite above normal, but maybe not quite as high as '24 because of those headwinds only.

我認為你說的是準確的。我認為您會看到基本的近似值接近您在 2024 年看到的情況，這是非常強勁的。但就您的評論而言，報告可能會少一些，因為您遇到了一些不利因素，特別是現在，正如您所說，例如大宗商品，例如典型併購造成的利潤稀釋以及我們所做的高水平併購。因此，我認為，根據報告，這一數字仍將遠高於正常水平，但可能不會像 24 年那麼高，因為這些不利因素。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jamie Somerville, Eight Capital.

傑米‧薩默維爾，《八資本》。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was going to ask about M&A, but you've answered that quite clearly already in terms of you expect to exceed the $150 million to $250 million of deals. So maybe just ask presumably, that's gross without the impact of shedding. Can you maybe give an indication of the net or the shedding impact that's reasonable to expect going forward? And like is shedding going to continue at a similar rate to what we've seen?

早安.感謝您提出我的問題。我本來想問有關併購的問題，但您已經很清楚地回答了，您預計交易金額將超過 1.5 億至 2.5 億美元。所以也許只是問一下，如果沒有脫落的影響，那就太噁心了。您能否說明未來合理預期的淨影響或減少影響？脫落是否會以與我們所看到的類似的速度繼續下去？

Well, number one, yes, the M&A that we report is a gross dollar of run rate acquired revenue achieved. You are correct. We give it in each period, what its contribution is in the quarters and in the year on an actual basis. The shedding is a function of underwater or contracts that we elect not to renew based on either service and safety concerns or financial return concerns. And obviously, we've done a lot of M&A over the last three years. And so you would expect it to be excel a little higher than normal, which is what you've seen, and it gets called out because we've been in a flat to almost less than 1% type growth market.

嗯，第一，是的，我們報告的併購是按運行率獲得的總收入。你是對的。我們在每個時期給出它在季度和年度中的實際貢獻。剝離是由於水下或合約的原因，我們基於服務和安全問題或財務回報問題而選擇不續約。顯然，過去三年我們進行了大量併購。所以你會期望它比正常情況高一點，這就是你所看到的，它被稱為是因為我們一直處於持平到幾乎低於 1% 的成長市場。

Historically, when we've been in a stronger GDP market, where there's real underlying nongovernment growth of 2% to 3%, it's not called out because you're still having flat to positive volumes. So that's really just more of what's going on in the macro economy than anything. So we've anniversaried a lot of the larger things that we have shed, but they'll continue to be shedding. I would expect it to come down as we go forward, but it will still be there. But this is just really more a function of what's going on in the macro economy.

從歷史上看，當我們處於一個更強勁的 GDP 市場時，非政府經濟的實際潛在增長為 2% 到 3%，它不會被指出，因為你的數量仍然持平到正。所以這實際上更多的是宏觀經濟中正在發生的事情。因此，我們已經為我們所拋棄的許多更大的東西舉行了周年紀念，但它們將繼續脫落。我預計它會隨著我們的前進而下降，但它仍然會在那裡。但這實際上更多是宏觀經濟中正在發生的事情的函數。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Butler, Stifel.

布萊恩巴特勒，斯蒂菲爾。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in here. I'll try to be quick. I think most of my questions have been already answered. Just a quick one maybe on service intervals. Can you maybe just give some additional color on just kind of the service interval trend you saw in the third quarter and maybe year-to-date and how that might play out as we get into the fourth and 2025?

嗨，早安。謝謝你把我擠在這裡。我會盡力快點。我想我的大部分問題已經得到解答。也許只是在維修間隔時快速進行一次。您能否就您在第三季甚至今年迄今為止看到的服務間隔趨勢提供一些額外的信息，以及當我們進入第四季度和 2025 年時，這種趨勢可能會如何發展？

Yeah. Brian, I would tell you that on a small container basis in our competitive markets, that continues to improve, particularly when you take out service decreases that are really affiliated with price change. So you got to look at what is happening in service decreases that are solely related to economic versus are you decreasing the level of service or frequency because someone is trying to reduce somewhat of the impact of their price increase.

是的。布萊恩，我想告訴你，在我們競爭激烈的市場中，在小貨櫃的基礎上，這種情況持續改善，特別是當你考慮到與價格變化真正相關的服務減少時。因此，您必須了解僅與經濟相關的服務減少中發生的情況，以及您是否因為有人試圖減少價格上漲的影響而降低服務水準或頻率。

So those are two ways of looking at it, and they're very different. And I think on the economic piece and the price piece, actually, both those continue to improve from where they were. So we would tell you that, that is less of a headwind than each of the previous four to five quarters.

所以這是兩種看待問題的方式，而且它們非常不同。我認為，實際上，在經濟方面和價格方面，這兩方面都在持續改善。因此，我們可以告訴您，這比之前四到五個季度的阻力要小。

Okay, great. Thanks. That's all I had.

好的，太好了。謝謝。這就是我所擁有的一切。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tobey Sommer, Truist Securities.

托比·索默（Tobey Sommer），Truist 證券公司。

Hi. Good morning. This is Jasper on for Tobey. Just wanted to follow up on the prior question. How are you thinking about the core margin drivers in 2025 underlying your EBITDA growth expectation. I think the last year seeing pretty good price/cost spread. You also mentioned the ongoing decline in employee turnover. Do you see kind of those key margin drivers changing at all as we turn the calendar into '25?

你好。早安.這是托比的賈斯柏。只是想跟進之前的問題。您如何看待 2025 年 EBITDA 成長預期的核心利潤驅動因素？我認為去年的價格/成本差距相當不錯。您也提到員工流動率持續下降。當我們將日曆轉向「25」時，您認為這些關鍵利潤驅動因素是否會改變？

No, we really don't. Basically, when we give those preliminary thoughts, and we say we should be positioned for above average underlying solid waste margin expansion is for just those reasons you described, that we'll be looking forward to having price-led organic growth, and we should continue to see some of those benefits from improving retention and safety metrics over the longer term. And so we believe that would impact '25. And that's the kind of color we'll be able to provide more of in February when we give our guidance.

不，我們真的不知道。基本上，當我們給出這些初步想法時，我們說我們應該定位於高於平均水平的基礎固體廢物利潤率擴張，正是出於您所描述的這些原因，我們將期待以價格為主導的有機成長，我們應該從長遠來看，繼續看到提高保留率和安全指標所帶來的一些好處。所以我們相信這會影響'25。當我們在二月給出指導時，我們將能夠提供更多這種顏色。

Thanks. Understood. And then maybe following up on railways historically, I think Northeast has been your lowest margin geography. Do you see an opportunity to kind of more materially change that margin profile from the Northeast region over the next couple of years with New York ramping up and also your rail development?

謝謝。明白了。然後，也許從歷史上看，鐵路歷史上，我認為東北地區一直是利潤率最低的地區。您是否認為隨著紐約的發展以及您的鐵路開發，未來幾年有機會更實質地改變東北地區的利潤狀況？

Well, certainly, as Ron described, we think there's a lot of opportunity within the New York market, specifically in the benefits of the franchise model, providing greater efficiencies and densities locally. One observation about the Northeast in general would be the disposal cost, the transfer and disposal costs, which influences total margins in any market. But that at a higher level is why you see slightly different dynamics in the Northeast than you do, say, in our central region or other regions where those dynamics are different.

嗯，當然，正如羅恩所描述的，我們認為紐約市場有很多機會，特別是特許經營模式的好處，在當地提供更高的效率和密度。關於東北地區的一項觀察結果是處置成本、轉移和處置成本，這會影響任何市場的總利潤。但在更高的層面上，這就是為什麼你在東北部看到的動態與我們的中部地區或其他動態不同的地區略有不同。

Got it. Thanks for taking the questions.

知道了。感謝您提出問題。

Thank you. And that does conclude the Q&A session. So I'd like to turn the floor to Ronald Mittelstaedt for any closing comments.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。因此，我想請羅納德·米特爾施塔特 (Ronald Mittelstaedt) 發表最後評論。

Okay. Thank you. Well, if there are no further questions, on behalf of our entire management team, we appreciate your listening to and interest in the call today. Mary Anne and Joe Box, are available today to answer any direct questions that we did not cover that we are allowed to answer under Regulation FD, Regulation G and applicable securities laws in Canada.

好的。謝謝。好吧，如果沒有其他問題，我們代表我們整個管理團隊感謝您收聽今天的電話會議並對此感興趣。Mary Anne 和 Joe Box 今天可以回答我們未涵蓋但根據 FD 法規、G 法規和加拿大適用證券法允許我們回答的任何直接問題。

Thank you again. We look forward to connecting with you at upcoming investor conferences or on our next earnings call.

再次感謝您。我們期待在即將舉行的投資者會議或下一次財報電話會議上與您聯繫。

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。現在您可以斷開線路。