Vistra Corp. (VST) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Vistra Corp first-quarter 2026 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Eric Micek. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Vistra Corp 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，本活動將被錄音。現在我想把會議交給 Eric Micek。請開始。

Good morning, and thank you for joining Vistra's investor webcast discussing our first-quarter 2026 results. Our discussion today is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and earnings release.

各位早安，感謝您加入 Vistra 的投資人網路直播，一同討論我們 2026 年第一季的業績。我們今天的討論將透過本公司網站 www.vistracorp.com 的投資人關係專區進行現場直播。您也可以在該處找到今天的投資人簡報與財報新聞稿的副本。

Providing our prepared remarks today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kris Moldovan, Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other senior Vistra executives will be available to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.

今天提供預先準備發言的是 Vistra 總裁兼執行長 Jim Burke，以及 Vistra 執行副總裁兼財務長 Kris Moldovan。視需要，Vistra 其他資深主管也將在今天電話會議的第二部分回答問題。

Our earnings release, presentation, and other matters discussed on the call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. All references to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow before growth throughout this presentation refer to ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA and ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the earnings release and in the appendix to the investor presentation available in the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website.

我們的財報新聞稿、簡報，以及今天電話會議中討論的其他事項，包含對若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的引用。本簡報中所有對調整後 EBITDA 與成長前調整後自由現金流的提及，均指持續營運之調整後 EBITDA 與持續營運之成長前調整後自由現金流。與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標之調節表，已載於財報新聞稿以及投資人簡報附錄中，並可於 Vistra 官網投資人關係專區取得。

Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

此外，今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，該等陳述係基於我們僅就今日日期所認為合理的假設。此類前瞻性陳述受若干風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果與所預測或暗示者有重大差異。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述之任何義務。

I encourage all listeners to review the Safe Harbor statements included on slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explain the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation, and the use of non-GAAP financial measures.

我鼓勵所有聽眾查閱我們網站投資人簡報第 2 頁所載的「安全港」聲明，其中說明前瞻性陳述的風險、簡報中所含特定產業與市場資料的限制，以及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的使用。

I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.

現在我把電話會議交給我們的總裁兼執行長 Jim Burke。

Thank you, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss Vistra's first-quarter 2026 operational and financial results. 2026 is off to a fast start. As outlined on our year-end call, within the first week of the year, we announced the acquisition of the 5,500-megawatt Cogentrix natural gas generation portfolio, as well as long-term power purchase agreements with Meta for approximately 2,600 megawatts of energy and capacity at our PJM nuclear sites.

謝謝你，Eric，各位早安。感謝各位加入我們，一同討論 Vistra 2026 年第一季的營運與財務成果。2026 年開局迅速。如同我們在年終電話會議中所概述的，在今年第一週內，我們宣布收購 5,500 兆瓦的 Cogentrix 天然氣發電資產組合，並與 Meta 簽訂長期購電協議，涵蓋我們 PJM 核電站點約 2,600 兆瓦的能源與容量。

These actions further strengthen our generation footprint and enhance our ability to serve growing customer demand with high-quality dispatchable and zero-carbon resources. The quarter also provided a good test for our generation fleet. Volatile weather created a dynamic backdrop that underscored the importance of operating assets safely and reliably, and I'm proud to say our team rose to the occasion.

這些行動進一步強化我們的發電版圖，並提升我們以高品質、可調度以及零碳資源服務不斷成長客戶需求的能力。本季也為我們的發電機組提供了一次良好的測試。多變的天氣形成動態背景，凸顯安全且可靠地運轉資產的重要性；我很自豪地說，我們的團隊不負所託。

Within the geographies we serve, we are seeing a structurally improved demand environment. Load growth remains elevated, hyperscalers are executing on record CapEx spending plans, and our conversations with large load customers continue to advance. All of this reinforces our view that power market fundamentals will continue to improve to the end of the decade and beyond.

在我們服務的地區，我們看到需求環境在結構上有所改善。負載成長仍維持在高檔，超大規模業者正執行創紀錄的資本支出（CapEx）計畫，而我們與大型用電客戶的對話也持續推進。這些都強化了我們的看法：電力市場基本面將持續改善，直至本十年末及其後。

We remain excited about the growth opportunities for new and existing generation. We are working with policymakers, regulators, transmission providers, and our customers to create innovative solutions that can support new load while preserving an affordable framework for existing customers.

我們對新建與既有發電資產的成長機會仍感到振奮。我們正與政策制定者、監管機關、輸電業者以及客戶合作，提出創新解決方案，在支持新增負載的同時，亦為既有客戶維持可負擔的架構。

With our large diversified and flexible fleet, our development capabilities, innovative retail franchise, and experienced commercial team, we believe Vistra is uniquely positioned to deliver on these initiatives, and we look forward to building on our early momentum throughout the rest of this year and beyond.

憑藉我們規模龐大、分散且具彈性的機組組合，我們的開發能力、創新的零售事業，以及經驗豐富的商務團隊，我們相信 Vistra 具備獨特優勢可推動這些計畫，並期待在今年剩餘時間及未來持續延續早期動能。

Turning to slide 5, Vistra delivered approximately $1.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA, a record result for a calendar first quarter. The strong financial performance is a direct result of the consistent execution of our generation commercial and retail teams as well as diversification afforded by our integrated business model.

接著看第 5 頁，Vistra 實現約 15 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，創下曆年第一季的紀錄。強勁的財務表現，直接來自我們發電商務與零售團隊一貫的執行力，以及我們整合型商業模式所帶來的多元化效益。

This was particularly evident during the first quarter as we managed through a volatile weather backdrop. Weather was exceptionally mild across the geographies we served for most of the period, especially in ERCOT, where the quarter was the second warmest first quarter since 1950, only to be interrupted by Fern, a protracted winter storm that brought significant snow and ice, as well as below-zero temperatures to a significant portion of the country.

這在第一季尤其明顯，因為我們必須在多變的天氣背景下進行管理。在大部分期間，我們服務地區的天氣異常溫和，尤其是在 ERCOT；該季為自 1950 年以來第二溫暖的第一季，但其間被 Fern 這場持續時間較長的冬季風暴打斷，該風暴為全國相當大一部分地區帶來大量降雪與結冰，以及零度以下的低溫。

Despite those conditions, our generation team performed very well during Fern, with our natural gas fleet performing at 97% commercial availability and our nuclear fleet at 100%. During the milder portions of the quarter, our commercial team successfully optimized the fleet, responding to market conditions by backing down assets when warranted and buying low-cost power in the market. Importantly, Martin Lake Unit 1 returned from an extended outage late in Q1 and has been running well since.

儘管如此，我們的發電團隊在 Fern 期間表現非常出色；天然氣機組商業可用率達 97%，核能機組達 100%。在本季較溫和的時段，我們的商務團隊成功最佳化機組運用，依市場狀況在需要時降低資產出力，並在市場上買入低成本電力。重要的是，Martin Lake 1 號機組在第一季末自長期停機中恢復運轉，且此後運行良好。

Moving to the outlook, we are reaffirming the guidance ranges for 2026 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow before growth, both of which we introduced on our third-quarter 2025 call. We are also maintaining our 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range.

展望未來，我們重申 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 與成長前調整後自由現金流的指引區間；這兩項指引皆是在我們 2025 年第三季電話會議中首次提出。我們也維持 2027 年調整後 EBITDA 的中位數機會區間。

Our confidence in the outlook continues to be supported by strong operational performance and our comprehensive hedging program, where we have successfully hedged a significant amount of our expected generation through the end of 2027. Our comprehensive hedging program, which focuses on opportunistically locking in value, ensures a more stable and resilient earnings stream across varying economic cycles.

我們對展望的信心，持續受到強勁的營運表現與我們全面性的避險計畫所支持；我們已成功就預期發電量中的相當大部分完成避險，涵蓋至 2027 年底。我們的全面性避險計畫著重於在適當時機鎖定價值，確保在不同經濟循環下，獲利來源更穩定且更具韌性。

As a reminder, our outlook does not include any potential contribution from the pending Cogentrix acquisition, nor does it include any uplift from the long-term power purchase agreements with Meta at our PJM nuclear sites. We expect to update our guidance ranges as well as our adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity following the closing of the Cogentrix acquisition.

提醒各位，我們的展望不包含尚待完成的 Cogentrix 收購案可能帶來的任何貢獻，也不包含與 Meta 在我們 PJM 核電站點簽訂長期購電協議所帶來的任何上行效益。我們預期在 Cogentrix 收購案完成交割後，更新我們的指引區間以及調整後 EBITDA 的中位數機會。

Finally, the amount of capital we expect to generate over the coming years provides flexibility to execute on both organic and inorganic growth opportunities, as well as return a meaningful amount of capital to our shareholders. We can do both. Our approach remains disciplined and opportunistic, and that was reflected again this quarter.

最後，我們預期未來數年所能產生的資本規模，讓我們得以彈性執行有機與無機的成長機會，同時也能向股東返還可觀的資本。我們兩者都能做到。我們的做法仍維持紀律且把握機會，而本季再次反映了這一點。

Through the design of our share repurchase program and given our increasing free cash flow yield, we accelerated share repurchases during the first four months of the year, deploying approximately $525 million. Combined with our first quarter dividend of approximately $75 million, we have already returned approximately $600 million to our shareholders this year.

透過我們庫藏股回購計畫的設計，並考量我們自由現金流殖利率的提升，我們在今年前四個月加速回購股票，投入約 5.25 億美元。再加上第一季約 7,500 萬美元的股利，我們今年迄今已向股東返還約 6 億美元。

Turning to slide 6, as we have outlined for the last two years, we continue to see a structurally improved demand environment that supports our long-term outlook. While large-scale data centers remain a key component of the expected growth, we expect incremental demand from multiple sources, including medium-sized data centers, increased industrial activity, and ongoing electrification.

接著看第 6 頁，如同我們過去兩年所概述的，我們持續看到需求環境在結構上改善，支持我們的長期展望。雖然大型資料中心仍是預期成長的關鍵組成，我們也預期需求增量將來自多個來源，包括中型資料中心、工業活動增加，以及持續的電氣化。

In ERCOT, we believe annual load growth of at least 5% to 6% through 2030 is reasonable, and in PJM, 2% to 3% annual load growth appears likely to persist. Importantly, while these views remain below many third-party forecasts and ISO projections, they reflect what we believe to be the pace of physical development and are consistent with the perspective we shared nearly two years ago on our first-quarter 2024 earnings call.

在 ERCOT，我們認為到 2030 年每年至少 5% 至 6% 的負載成長是合理的；而在 PJM，每年 2% 至 3% 的負載成長看來很可能會持續。重要的是，儘管這些觀點仍低於許多第三方預測與 ISO 的推估，但它們反映了我們認為的實體開發步伐，並且與我們近兩年前在 2024 年第一季財報電話會議上分享的觀點一致。

While there are large interconnect queues in our major markets for both load and generation, we believe our estimates to be realistic load growth forecasts that reinforce that competitive markets are ready to meet the coming demand. Since we expect overall load growth to outpace peak demand growth, a dynamic that should result in higher utilization of the existing generation and transmission infrastructure, we believe the existing grids can handle this level of growth successfully, providing a helpful runway to bring on additional generation resources later this decade and beyond.

雖然在我們主要市場中，無論是負載端或發電端都存在龐大的併網排隊（interconnect queues），我們仍認為我們的估計是務實的負載成長預測，並強化了競爭性市場已準備好滿足即將到來需求的觀點。由於我們預期整體負載成長將超過尖峰需求成長——這種態勢應會提高既有發電與輸電基礎設施的使用率——我們相信現有電網能成功承受此一成長水準，並為本十年稍晚及其後導入額外發電資源提供有利的緩衝期。

Moreover, utilizing the existing infrastructure more efficiently is key to preserving affordability. With more power moving through the system, fixed costs are spread over more volumes, which should support lower unit costs for customers over time, and third-party research confirms this dynamic. A Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study demonstrated that states with positive load growth over the last five years experienced a decline in inflation-adjusted prices on average, while states with flat load growth or a decline in load experienced double-digit inflation-adjusted price increases.

此外，更有效率地運用既有基礎設施是維持可負擔性的關鍵。隨著更多電力在系統中流動，固定成本可分攤到更大的電量上，長期而言應可支持客戶的單位成本下降，且第三方研究也證實了此一動態。勞倫斯柏克萊國家實驗室（Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory）的一項研究顯示，過去五年負載呈正成長的州，其經通膨調整後的價格平均出現下降；而負載持平或下降的州，則出現經通膨調整後的價格兩位數上漲。

Policymakers and industry participants, including large load customers, are working on solutions to better manage the infrequent peak load and are willing to be creative. At Vistra, we remain focused on developing these solutions, including through the deployment of demand response capabilities or through distributed generation technologies that they could enable a faster time to power while awaiting a grid connection and help manage through super peak hours during the year, all while enhancing reliability and affordability.

政策制定者與產業參與者（包括大型負載客戶）正致力於提出解決方案，以更好地管理不常發生的尖峰負載，並願意採取創新作法。在 Vistra，我們仍專注於開發這些解決方案，包括部署需量反應（demand response）能力，或透過分散式發電技術——這些技術可在等待電網併接期間加快供電時程，並協助在一年中的超尖峰時段（super peak hours）進行管理——同時提升可靠性與可負擔性。

In summary, the load growth is real and is actualizing, and that creates meaningful opportunities for Vistra to support all its customers from residential to commercial and industrial, including data centers.

總結而言，負載成長是真實且正在實現的，這為 Vistra 帶來具意義的機會，使我們能支援從住宅到商業與工業的所有客戶，包括資料中心。

Finally, turning to slide 7, as we have highlighted, the load growth developing across our markets creates significant opportunities to deploy capital towards organic development projects that can further increase the earnings power of our business. As you can see on the page, we currently have approximately 4,500 megawatts of organic development opportunities that were recently completed or in process across our portfolio.

最後，回到第 7 張投影片，如我們先前強調的，我們各市場正在形成的負載成長，創造了可將資本投入於有機開發專案的重大機會，進一步提升我們業務的獲利能力。如頁面所示，我們目前在整體投資組合中，約有 4,500 兆瓦的有機開發機會，這些專案近期已完成或正在進行中。

They include contracted renewables such as Oak Hill 1, the recently contracted Oak Hill 2, Pulaski, and the recently energized Newton project. High-return thermal additions, such as our coal-to-gas conversions at Coleto Creek and Miami Fort; Texas gas expansions, including gas plant augmentations and our Permian new-build gas units; and longer lead time projects, such as the PJM nuclear outbreaks, supported by our long-term power purchase agreements with Meta. These projects represent cost-effective and efficient ways to achieve incremental capacity, with the majority expected to be online by 2028.

其中包括已簽約的再生能源專案，例如 Oak Hill 1、近期簽約的 Oak Hill 2、Pulaski，以及近期已送電（energized）的 Newton 專案。高報酬的火力增量專案，例如我們在 Coleto Creek 與 Miami Fort 的燃煤轉燃氣（coal-to-gas）改造；德州燃氣擴建，包括燃氣電廠增補（augmentations）以及我們在二疊紀盆地（Permian）的新建燃氣機組；以及較長前置期的專案，例如 PJM 的核電 uprate（增容）專案，並由我們與 Meta 簽訂的長期購電協議（PPA）提供支持。這些專案代表以具成本效益且高效率的方式取得增量容量，其中大多數預計將於 2028 年前上線。

At the same time, the development opportunity set is not limited to the project shown here. The team remains hard at work, advancing multiple additional gigawatts of opportunities across the generation spectrum. Up rates will continue to play an important role, and we see the opportunity for more than 200 megawatts at Comanche Peak and approximately 300 additional megawatts at our PJM gas sites.

同時，開發機會的範圍並不限於此處展示的專案。團隊仍在積極推進發電光譜上的多個額外 GW 級機會。增容（uprates）將持續扮演重要角色；我們看到在 Comanche Peak 超過 200 兆瓦的機會，以及在我們 PJM 燃氣場址約 300 兆瓦的額外機會。

We see numerous development opportunities at existing coal and gas sites that provide options for meaningful contracts for existing capacity, as well as capacity additions with favorable speed and cost profiles relative to greenfield projects. As we advance these projects, the team will look for ways to partner on these investments through long-term power purchase agreements with credit-worthy customers.

我們在既有燃煤與燃氣場址看到眾多開發機會，這些機會可為既有容量提供具意義的合約選項，並且相較於綠地（greenfield）專案，容量增量在速度與成本特性上更具優勢。在推進這些專案的同時，團隊也將尋求透過與具信用實力客戶簽訂長期購電協議（PPA），以合作方式共同投資。

Now I'll turn it over to Kris to discuss our more recent financial results, outlook and capital allocation. Kris.

接下來我把時間交給 Kris，請他說明我們較近期的財務結果、展望與資本配置。Kris。

Thank you, Jim. Turning to slide 9, Vistra delivered $1.494 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026, up approximately 20% from the same quarter last year and up nearly 85% from Q1 2024. Generation, which delivered $1.426 billion of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, benefited from strong realized revenue across the fleet, higher capacity revenues in PJM, and the contribution from the assets we acquired in late 2025 from Lotus.

謝謝你，Jim。回到第 9 張投影片，Vistra 在 2026 年第一季交出 14.94 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，較去年同期成長約 20%，較 2024 年第一季成長近 85%。發電業務在本季貢獻 14.26 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，受惠於全機組群強勁的已實現收入（realized revenue）、PJM 較高的容量收入，以及我們於 2025 年底自 Lotus 收購資產所帶來的貢獻。

Retail, which delivered $68 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, continues to benefit from strong counts and margins, partially offsetting extremely mild weather in ERCOT. It is important to note that we expected a year-over-year decline in the first-quarter results for retail, and we continue to project retail's full-year performance to moderate from the record result last year. However, retail remains on track to achieve its medium-term adjusted EBITDA target this year.

零售業務本季貢獻 6,800 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，持續受惠於強勁的客戶數與利潤率，部分抵銷 ERCOT 極度溫和的天氣影響。需要注意的是，我們原本就預期零售業務第一季結果將年減，且我們仍預估零售業務全年表現將自去年創紀錄的結果回落。然而，零售業務仍按計畫在今年達成其中期調整後 EBITDA 目標。

Turning to slide 10, we are reaffirming both our 2026 guidance ranges and maintaining our 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range. Our confidence in our outlook and cash generation is supported by our comprehensive hedging program, the long-term power purchase agreements we have executed, and the downside protection of the nuclear PTC, resulting in a highly hedged position in 2026 and 2027.

回到第 10 張投影片，我們重申 2026 年指引區間，並維持 2027 年調整後 EBITDA 的中點機會區間。我們對展望與現金創造能力的信心，來自於我們全面的避險計畫、已簽署的長期購電協議，以及核電 PTC 的下行保護，使我們在 2026 年與 2027 年維持高度避險的部位。

As Jim stated earlier, our financial guidance excludes any potential impacts from the pending acquisition of Cogentrix and the long-term power purchase agreements that are PJM nuclear sites with Meta. Cogentrix is on track to close in the second half of this year, and we plan to update our guidance ranges and 2027 midpoint opportunity range thereafter.

如 Jim 先前所述，我們的財務指引不包含對 Cogentrix 併購案（尚待完成）以及與 Meta 相關、位於 PJM 核電場址的長期購電協議所可能帶來的任何影響。Cogentrix 預計將於今年下半年完成交割，之後我們將更新指引區間與 2027 年中點機會區間。

Importantly, we see multiple additional opportunities to further expand and stabilize our earnings potential. Customer engagement remains strong, and we are confident in our ability to create value and drive stronger financial results. Our near-term priorities include approximately 3.2 gigawatts of nuclear capacity at Beaver Valley and Comanche Peak that can be contracted on a long-term basis and ongoing opportunities with customers with respect to our existing gas plants, as well as potential new construction.

重要的是，我們看到多項額外機會，可進一步擴大並穩定我們的獲利潛力。客戶互動仍然強勁，我們對創造價值並推動更佳財務成果的能力充滿信心。我們的近期優先事項包括：Beaver Valley 與 Comanche Peak 約 3.2 GW 的核電容量，可透過長期合約方式簽約；以及就我們既有燃氣電廠與客戶持續洽談的機會，並包含潛在的新建案。

Finally, turning to slide 11, based on our outlook, we still have line of sight to more than $10 billion of cash generation over 2026 and 2027. After allocating approximately $3 billion to our equity holders through share repurchases in common and preferred dividends in 2026 and 2027, and approximately $4 billion towards accretive growth investments, including the Cogentrix acquisition, the development of the Permian gas units, the PJM nuclear operates supported by PPAs with Meta, and the development of Oak Hill 2 supported by a PPA with a large investment-grade counterparty, we continue to expect to have approximately $3 billion of additional capital available to allocate through year-end 2027.

最後，回到第 11 張投影片，基於我們的展望，我們仍可望在 2026 年與 2027 年合計創造超過 100 億美元的現金。在 2026 年與 2027 年期間，透過普通股庫藏股回購與特別股股利向股東配置約 30 億美元，並將約 40 億美元投入具增益性的成長投資（包括 Cogentrix 併購、二疊紀盆地燃氣機組開發、由與 Meta 的 PPA 支持的 PJM 核電營運項目，以及由與大型投資級交易對手之 PPA 支持的 Oak Hill 2 開發）之後，我們仍預期到 2027 年底前，約有 30 億美元的額外資本可供配置。

As always, we will be disciplined in how we allocate this remaining capital, balancing return of capital to our shareholders, further strengthening our balance sheet, and strategically investing in attractive organic and inorganic growths. Our share repurchase program continues to create significant value. Since initiating the program in November 2021, we have retired approximately 169 million shares at an average cost of approximately $37 per share.

一如既往，我們將以嚴謹的紀律配置這筆剩餘資本，在回饋股東、進一步強化資產負債表，以及策略性投資於具吸引力的有機與無機成長之間取得平衡。我們的股票回購計畫持續創造顯著價值。自 2021 年 11 月啟動該計畫以來，我們已以每股約 37 美元的平均成本，註銷（retire）約 1.69 億股。

We currently have approximately $1.475 billion of share repurchase authorization remaining. Pursuant to the opportunistic design of our 10b5-1 plan, our repurchase activity was accelerated in the first four months of the year as our free cash flow yield increased. We will evaluate our share repurchase authorization and availability throughout the year with the option to continue to accelerate share repurchases should market conditions warrant.

我們目前仍有約14.75億美元的股票回購授權額度可用。依據我們10b5-1計畫的機會主義設計，隨著我們自由現金流殖利率上升，我們在今年前四個月加快了回購活動。我們將在全年持續評估股票回購授權及可用性，並保留在市場情況允許時繼續加速股票回購的選項。

Turning to the balance sheet, during the quarter, we received an upgrade of our corporate issuer rating to investment grade from Fitch Ratings. Combined with the upgrade from S&P Global Ratings late last year, we have now achieved investment-grade ratings from two rating agencies.

談到資產負債表，本季我們獲惠譽評等（Fitch Ratings）將公司發行人評等上調至投資等級。再加上標普全球評等（S&P Global Ratings）於去年年底的上調，我們目前已獲兩家評等機構給予投資等級評等。

We are pleased to see the recognition of our efforts to increase our earnings power, de-risk our business model, and execute on our disciplined capital allocation plan. With this milestone, the fall-away provisions and our senior secured debt agreements were triggered, releasing the liens on our assets under those documents.

我們很高興看到外界肯定我們提升獲利能力、降低商業模式風險，並落實嚴謹資本配置計畫的努力。隨著達成此一里程碑，相關的失效條款（fall-away provisions）以及我們的優先擔保債務協議被觸發，使得上述文件項下對我們資產設定的留置權得以解除。

Achieving investment-grade ratings positions the company well to maintain financial flexibility and support long-term value creation. We will continue to target leverage metrics consistent with solid investment-grade credit ratings. As for strategic investments, we remain opportunistic yet disciplined, maintaining our mid-teens levered return threshold across organic or inorganic growth investments.

取得投資等級評等，使公司更能維持財務彈性並支持長期價值創造。我們將持續以符合穩健投資等級信用評等的槓桿指標為目標。至於策略性投資，我們仍將把握機會但保持紀律，無論是有機或無機成長投資，皆維持中十位數（約15%上下）的槓桿報酬率門檻。

In closing, Vistra remains well-positioned to create long-term value for our stakeholders. The resilience of our business is evident in our strong results and reaffirmed earnings outlook despite a volatile weather backdrop during the quarter. We see load growth materializing in our primary markets, and the team remains focused on positioning Vistra to win in that environment.

最後，Vistra 仍處於有利位置，可為利害關係人創造長期價值。儘管本季天氣波動劇烈，我們仍繳出強勁成果並重申獲利展望，顯示我們業務的韌性。我們看到主要市場的用電負載成長正在成形，團隊也持續專注於讓 Vistra 在該環境中勝出。

With that, operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.

接下來，接線員，我們準備開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Shar Pourreza, Wells Fargo.

（接線員指示）Shar Pourreza，富國銀行。

Hi, good morning, team. It's actually Constantine here for Shar. Appreciate the update today.

嗨，各位早安，團隊。其實今天是 Constantine 代替 Shar。感謝今天的更新。

Yeah, hey, Constantine.

好的，嗨，Constantine。

Maybe starting out on PJM. Do you anticipate the FERC PGM co-location rules to kind of start opening up more opportunities to do repeat deals like the meta-deal? Do the rule changes impact the framework of combining new capacity with contracting existing resources? And does this kind of, in your mind, extend beyond the nuclear assets over time?

或許先從 PJM 談起。你們是否預期 FERC 的 PJM 共址（co-location）規則會開始帶來更多機會，讓你們能做出像與 Meta 那筆交易一樣的重複性交易？規則變更是否會影響「將新增容量與既有資源簽約結合」的架構？另外，從你們的角度看，這是否會隨時間推移而不僅限於核能資產？

Yeah, Constantine, this is Jim. I'll start, and I'm sure we'll talk a lot about policy and PJM, so you'll hear from Stacy on a number of these topics. But we're encouraged by the co-location recognition. I think we're seeing in all markets, not just PJM, that if we're going to hook this load up quickly enough, co-location with existing and co-location with new needs to be supported. There's obviously tariff work to be done, and the details are going to need to continue to be worked out, and we hope PJM can move to support the co-location in the way that we think FERC was providing direction to support it. So we do think there's opportunity to do additional deals like the one we did with Meta. It doesn't need to just be with nuclear. I think we have opportunities to do it with gas as well.

是的，Constantine，我是 Jim。我先回答，我相信我們會談很多政策與 PJM 的議題，所以你也會在多個主題上聽到 Stacy 的看法。不過，我們對共址獲得認可感到鼓舞。我認為我們在所有市場（不僅是 PJM）都看到：若要夠快把負載接上去，就需要支持與既有設施共址以及與新設施共址。顯然還有費率（tariff）方面的工作要做，細節也需要持續釐清；我們希望 PJM 能以我們認為 FERC 所指引的方式，推進並支持共址。因此我們確實認為還有機會做出更多像我們與 Meta 那筆交易一樣的案子。而且不一定只限於核能。我認為我們在天然氣方面也有機會。

But this is a process and we've seen that, there's a back and forth on this and there's a coming to a common understanding that's needed. And so I can't say it's going to be quick or simple, but we're optimistic that the logic around co-location continues to get more and more support. And then it's just a matter of making sure we've got the avenues to be able to execute on it. I'm going to ask Stacy to share her perspective.

但這是一個流程；我們也看到其中會有來回討論，並需要達成共同理解。因此我不能說這會很快或很簡單，但我們對共址背後的邏輯持續獲得越來越多支持感到樂觀。接下來就是確保我們具備能夠落地執行的途徑。我請 Stacy 分享她的觀點。

Yeah, thanks, Jim.

好的，謝謝你，Jim。

FERC's collocation order in December made it very clear that collocation is something that PJM must support. And so the filings are now just trying to sort through what the rules of the road are and we do expect FERC to be motivated to act quickly on that.

FERC 在12月的共址命令非常清楚地表明，共址是 PJM 必須支持的事項。因此，目前的提交流程只是試圖釐清「遊戲規則」是什麼；我們也預期 FERC 會有動機迅速採取行動。

We've seen them recently, order some pretty short timelines for PJM to respond to that order with compliance filings. And so we do think FERC is very focused on clarifying. The rules of the road. And in the meantime, customers continue to explore co-location with us at both gas and nuclear sites.

我們最近看到他們要求 PJM 在相當短的時程內，針對該命令提出合規提報（compliance filings）。因此我們確實認為 FERC 非常專注於釐清。相關的遊戲規則。同時，客戶仍持續在天然氣與核能場址與我們探討共址。

And so those contracting discussions can continue and parallel what the rules. Are clarified. And we think that has to be part of the solution for meeting this demand because there is a speed to power advantage while additional resources take longer to come on the grid.

因此，這些簽約討論可以持續進行，並與規則。逐步釐清的進程並行。我們認為，這必須成為滿足此需求解方的一部分，因為在額外資源需要更久才能併網的情況下，共址在供電速度上具有優勢。

That's really helpful. Thanks for that. And maybe shifting to ERCOT, obviously milder weather here in the quarter.

這非常有幫助。謝謝說明。另外或許轉到 ERCOT，本季天氣顯然較為溫和。

Does that shift any of the expectations and are you thinking of any offsets around 26, kind of just within the current guidance ranges and maybe extending that to your views on the moving forwards in ERCOT? Is there a degree of load expectations shifting? Energy storage impacts, any color that you can provide.

這是否會改變任何預期？你們是否在思考 2026 年的任何抵銷因素（offsets），也就是在目前指引區間內的調整；並且延伸到你們對 ERCOT 遠期走勢的看法？負載預期是否有變動的程度？儲能的影響如何？能否提供一些補充說明。

Yeah, Constantine, what was noted, I think, in many external reports was just how mild this first quarter was. And we noted that, fortunately, one of the benefits of our business is a highly diversified business, both generation and retail. So we saw some offsets. That's why we had a good quarter. So retail.

是的，Constantine，許多外部報告提到的重點之一，就是今年第一季天氣有多溫和。我們也注意到了；所幸我們業務的一個優勢在於高度多元化，涵蓋發電與零售。因此我們看到一些抵銷效果。這也是我們本季表現不錯的原因。所以在零售方面。

Bore the brunt of some of the mild weather for this particular quarter, but the rest of the business, particularly generation, had a good quarter. And I expect to see that integrated model continue to be a strength for Vistra. So we don't feel the need to necessarily have offsets. Obviously, we'd always like to outperform. So you'd like to have the full performance of generation and retail all the time. But when you do see these. These offsets like this happen, that's why our model is designed the way it is. So I actually feel really good about how the integrated model performed. The second question, which is the ERCOT forwards, obviously, we've seen ERCOT forwards come off. We didn't see much weather as a function of what we just discussed. I think that tends to read through to some of the future periods.

在本季，零售承受了較溫和天氣帶來的主要影響，但公司其他業務，特別是發電，表現良好。我預期這種一體化模式將持續成為 Vistra 的優勢。因此我們不覺得一定需要特別去做抵銷。當然，我們總是希望能超越預期。所以你會希望發電與零售能一直都全面發揮。但當你看到這些。像這樣的抵銷情況發生時，這正是我們的模式之所以如此設計的原因。所以我其實對一體化模式的表現感到非常滿意。第二個問題是 ERCOT 的遠期走勢；顯然我們看到 ERCOT 遠期價格已回落。如同剛才所說，我們沒有看到太多天氣因素。我認為這往往會反映到一些未來期間。

I think the concern about the pace of. Load getting hooked up because there's a big discussion obviously about the batch process and how long is it going to take to get through the approval process. So I think there's a bit of a sort of a perspective at the moment of how quickly will the load come.

我認為大家擔心的是負載接入的速度。因為顯然目前有很大的討論在於批次流程，以及要花多久才能走完核准流程。所以我認為目前有點像是在看：負載到底會多快進來。

And I think towards the back end of the decade, I don't think there's any doubt about how quickly the load is going to come. And our chart, we're showing very consistently this 5% to 6% compounding kind of load in ERCOT.

而我認為在本十年後段，負載會多快進來這件事，我覺得毫無疑問。從我們的圖表來看，我們非常一致地呈現 ERCOT 的負載以 5% 到 6% 的複利方式成長。

But I think the market is expecting more than that. And what we're saying is, I don't even think the market forwards reflect 5% or 6% compounding loads. So I think there is a wide disparity in view out there because I think the market. Had a view that it was going to compound a lot faster than this. We did not. We actually have said the physical world takes much longer to develop than what people might imagine it takes, and we just think that's playing out. So I think there are folks trading around that. We feel very solid that the 5% to 6% is a good compound growth rate.

但我認為市場預期的成長幅度高於此。而我們要說的是，我甚至不認為市場遠期價格反映了 5% 或 6% 的複利負載成長。所以我認為外界的看法存在很大的落差，因為我認為市場。原本的看法是它會以比這更快的速度複利成長。我們並不這麼認為。我們其實多年來一直說，實體世界的建設與發展所需時間遠比人們想像的更長，而我們認為這正逐步驗證。所以我認為有人在圍繞這點進行交易。我們非常有信心，5% 到 6% 是一個不錯的複合成長率。

I also don't believe the 400-plus gigawatts of interconnection. We said that. We believe that ERCOT is looking at something in the order of probably 30 to 40 gigawatts of growth in total by 2030. We think 10 to 15 of that's likely large data centers. So I think there's just a lot of confusion out there because there's a lot of information people are trying to sort through. But.

我也不相信那個 400 多GW 的併網申請量。我們說過這點。我們認為 ERCOT 到 2030 年總體成長大概會在 30 到 40GW 的量級。我們認為其中 10 到 15GW 很可能是大型資料中心。所以我認為外界確實有很多混亂，因為大家在試著梳理大量資訊。但是。

We feel good about the position we have in ERCOT. We think it's going to be a market that's going to continue to strengthen through time.

我們對自己在 ERCOT 的布局感到很有信心。我們認為這會是一個隨時間持續走強的市場。

And I think because we're on both sides of it, both retail and Gen. It can work for us from a durability standpoint with the integrated model. So I think we'll just have to see this play out, Constantine. We'd love to see the load hooking up a little faster than it is, but this pace of play is about what we expected. And we think the forwards would still actually improve from where they are even if the 5% to 6% were maintained.

而且我認為因為我們兩邊都有布局，零售端與發電端（Gen）。在整合式模式下，從韌性與耐久性角度來看，這對我們是有利的。所以我想我們就得看看這件事如何發展，Constantine。我們當然希望負載接入能比現在更快一些，但目前的進展速度大致符合我們的預期。而且我們認為，即使維持 5% 到 6% 的成長，遠期價格其實仍會比目前水準有所改善。

Appreciate the color there. Thanks for taking the questions. I'll jump back in queue. Take care.

很感謝你提供的補充說明。謝謝你回答問題。我回到隊列後面。保重。

Thanks, Constantine.

謝謝你，Constantine。

Steve Fleishman, Wolfe Research.

Wolfe Research 的 Steve Fleishman。

Yeah, hi, good morning, everyone.

是的，嗨，各位早安。

So just I heard Chris's commentary on the customer engagement being strong, both on the nuclear and the gas.

所以我剛剛聽到 Chris 對客戶互動很強勁的評論，無論是在核能或天然氣方面。

But we did have Constellation, come out in the last month or two and talk about a little bit of a pause from customers due to the kind of RBP uncertainty and some of the structural uncertainty, I guess, particularly PJM. So I'm curious, just have you seen a similar change in tone from your customers or are you still seeing the same interest that you, have.

但我們確實看到 Constellation 在過去一兩個月出來提到，由於某種 RBP 的不確定性以及一些結構性的不確定性，我想特別是在 PJM，客戶端有點暫停。所以我很好奇，你們是否也看到客戶語氣有類似的變化，還是你們仍然看到與你們。

Talked about on the last call.

在上次電話會議中所談到的相同興趣？

Yes, Steve, good morning. This is Jim.

是的，Steve，早安。我是 Jim。

So I think it's logical that with the amount of information flying around that people are just even trying to digest it. I mean, just yesterday, PJM put out a 70-page paper. I think it's actually quite helpful in raising the discussion around market design. So our partners that we're talking to, the customers we already have and the ones we hope to become customers, they look to us also for insights and guidance on how to navigate this, because these deals and we've maintained for several years, these deals are complicated, they take time, we have said that. From the beginning. And I think we would still say that. And this just becomes yet another variable that we have to talk to them about. But the load is still coming. And the question really is going to be, when is there enough clarity on some of these that they feel confident it's time to go? And they have real questions. For instance, in PJM, how does participating in an RBP help or not with speed to market? Does Connect and Manage come into play? What does that look like? Some of those are unknowns, but they know they can't wait for clarity either. So our discussions are going in parallel. They're consistent. The activity level has remained as high as we've ever seen in this. So I don't see a change there. We'd all want clarity. They want clarity, and we're all going to work hard to get it. But Steve, I think the pace of play on this is where we expected it to be, and we're comfortable with where it is. But from a competitive markets person, I want the competitive markets to get as much of the opportunity to serve these customers as anybody. So we're eager to get on with any and all clarity.

所以我認為，在有這麼多資訊滿天飛的情況下，人們只是試著消化這些內容，這是合乎邏輯的。我的意思是，就在昨天，PJM 發布了一份 70 頁的文件。我認為這其實很有幫助，能把市場設計的討論拉高到更清楚的層次。因此，我們正在洽談的合作夥伴、我們既有的客戶以及我們希望成為客戶的對象，也會向我們尋求洞見與指引，了解如何在這種情況下前進，因為這些交易——而且我們多年來一直強調——這些交易很複雜、需要時間，我們也一直這麼說。從一開始就是如此。而我想我們現在仍會這麼說。而這只是我們必須與他們討論的另一個變數。但負載仍然會進來。真正的問題會是：在這些議題上何時有足夠的明確性，讓他們有信心覺得該出發了？而他們確實有實際問題。例如在 PJM，參與 RBP 對於加速上市（speed to market）是否有幫助？Connect and Manage 是否會納入？那會是什麼樣子？其中一些仍是未知數，但他們也知道不能等到完全明朗才行動。所以我們的討論是並行推進的。而且是一致的。活動量一直維持在我們所見過的最高水準。所以我沒有看到那方面的改變。我們都希望更清楚。他們希望更清楚，而我們也都會努力促成。但 Steve，我認為目前的進展速度符合我們的預期，我們對現況感到安心。但以競爭性市場的角度，我希望競爭性市場能像任何人一樣，盡可能把握服務這些客戶的機會。所以我們很希望能盡快把所有相關的明確性都落地。

And I think that's how the customers feel too. But the pace of play is where we expect it, and it's still strong. And Stacy, anything you'd like to add to that?

我想客戶的感受也是如此。但進展速度符合我們的預期，而且仍然很強勁。Stacy，你有什麼想補充的嗎？

Continuing to engage at the same level that they have been. And I've said, I think, several times that, there are uncertainties for sure on the regulatory front, that you can contract around those uncertainties. It's just a matter of allocating risk. And so, as Jim said, that's just another variable that comes into the negotiation. But, of course, they want to understand how all of these rules of the workflow will work.

他們持續以一樣的程度在互動。而且我想我已經講過好幾次了，監管面確實存在不確定性，但你可以透過合約安排來因應這些不確定性。這只是風險分配的問題。所以如 Jim 所說，這只是談判中又多了一個變數。但當然，他們也想了解這些工作流程規則將如何運作。

And they talk to us about that. They get our take on the regulatory hurdles and the regulatory rules, and we work through that with them and try to help them come up with the solutions that deliver speed to power, which is what they want. And those solutions sometimes can include things like bridge power, for example, because they're not sure when they can get connected. So, what we've been advocating is while we're working out the rules of the road, we really need to get load connected as quickly as possible. Because that's the best way to deliver for the customers, but also to address the affordability issue.

他們也會就此與我們討論。他們會聽取我們對監管門檻與監管規則的看法，我們會和他們一起把這些問題梳理清楚，並嘗試協助他們提出能夠加速通電（speed to power）的解決方案，這正是他們想要的。而這些方案有時也可能包含例如過渡電力（bridge power）之類的安排，因為他們不確定何時能完成接入。所以我們一直倡議的是：在我們釐清道路規則的同時，確實需要盡可能快速地讓負載接入。因為這是為客戶交付成果的最佳方式，同時也能處理可負擔性（affordability）問題。

Okay, great. And my follow-up is actually on that topic on the bridge power. I think you mentioned called the distributed Gen. Faster time to power in your remarks. Just could you talk about some of the options you're looking at there for customers?

好的，很棒。我的追問其實也在同一個主題上，關於橋接電力（bridge power）。我想你提到所謂的分散式發電（distributed Gen.）。在你的發言中也提到更快的供電時間（faster time to power）。能否談談你們正在為客戶評估的一些選項？

Sure, Steve. So, on the bridge power, the discussions, obviously, customers want to get power as quickly as possible. So, bridge has become part of the workaround for these customers. Ideally, customers would like a grid connection and like it quickly. I mean, that's the starting point. When they can't get that, then they look at bridge, and ultimately, that bridge might be longer in some cases, depending on how long it takes to get.

當然可以，Steve。關於橋接電力，顯然客戶希望能盡快取得電力。因此，橋接電力已成為這些客戶的變通方案之一。理想情況下，客戶希望能有電網併網（grid connection），而且越快越好。我的意思是，這是起點。當他們無法做到時，就會轉而採用橋接方案，而最終在某些情況下，這個「橋接」可能會更長，取決於要花多久才能取得……

The hookup. The reason why co-location, we think, makes so much sense is there's less transmission work involved, so you could actually get the hookup quickly. But in the case where they decide to go down the bridge power path, we're having discussions with multiple parties about bridge power ultimately to get to grid connection. And that takes a variety of the technologies that you're familiar with, but more of our conversations have been leaning toward the use of gas in these Bridgepower solutions. And obviously, that's something we're comfortable with, but the customers ultimately are looking to scale up and so it's more about how do you get started and I think that gets to the earlier question, which is the pace isn't really slowing down, it's just the way in which folks are trying to get to market, they've had to be a bit more creative and we're part of that with them. We wish it were simpler, we wish it could actually get to the existing grid because as we've talked about, there's plenty of existing Gen. Capacity.

併網接入（hookup）。我們認為共址（co-location）之所以很有意義，是因為涉及的輸電工程較少，因此實際上可以更快完成接入。但在他們決定走橋接電力路徑的情況下，我們正與多方就橋接電力進行討論，最終目標仍是接上電網。這會採用你熟悉的各種技術，但我們更多的對話傾向於在這些橋接電力解決方案中使用天然氣。顯然這是我們熟悉且有把握的方向，但客戶最終是希望擴大規模，因此更關鍵的是如何啟動；我想這也回到先前的問題：速度其實沒有真的放慢，只是大家為了更快進入市場，不得不更有創意，而我們也與他們一起參與其中。我們希望事情能更簡單，也希望能直接接入既有電網，因為如我們所談到的，既有發電（Gen.）容量其實很充足。

On the system. We just need to manage the super peak hours. I think that's being recognized more, but there's plenty of generation on the grid. And it's unfortunate we can't tap it as quickly as we'd like. So this bridge will be part of that solution, but hopefully, ultimately, we get all of this hooked up and we're able to support the customer in the most cost-effective way possible.

在系統上。我們只是需要管理超尖峰時段（super peak hours）。我認為這點正被更多人認知到，但電網上的發電量是充足的。很可惜我們無法像希望的那樣快速利用它。因此，這個橋接方案會是解決方案的一部分，但希望最終我們能把這一切都接上，並以最具成本效益的方式支援客戶。

James West, Melius Research.

James West，Melius Research。

Thanks. Good morning, guys.

謝謝。各位早安。

Hey, James.

嗨，James。

Hey, Jim. I wanted to get a framework or think about how to frame the conversations you're having with the data center hyperscalers.

嗨，Jim。我想建立一個框架，或思考該如何界定你們與資料中心超大規模業者（hyperscalers）的對話。

And with all the, as you've alluded to several times, the kind of noise or the information.

以及如你們多次提到的，各種雜音或資訊……

In the system and in the regulatory environment, which is going through some changes and creating their own framework.

在系統內以及監管環境中，這些都正在經歷一些變化，並形成他們自己的框架。

But speed to power is still the most important thing for the hyperscalers. And so are they willing still to go bilateral in negotiations with you guys? And as we get some of this clarity, go ahead and contract well ahead of if. PJM, an auction, or batching if it's for.

但對超大規模業者而言，「供電速度」（speed to power）仍然是最重要的。那麼他們是否仍願意與你們進行雙邊（bilateral）談判？並且在我們取得一些明確性之後，提前很久就先行簽約，無論是……PJM 的拍賣（auction），或如果是採用批次處理（batching）的話？

Yeah, James, I'm going to go ahead and let Stacy kick this one off.

好的，James，我先請 Stacy 來回答這題。

Yeah, thanks, James, for the question.

好的，謝謝你，James，這個問題。

Yes, they are willing to and are engaging in discussions about bilateral contracts, even ahead of the rules for the.

是的，他們願意，而且正在就雙邊合約進行討論，即使在……的規則尚未完全明確之前。

Backstop procurement being clarified. And I just go back to what's really important is that we talk about raising the bar on the interconnection queue because it's not as much -- I mean, certainly the lack of clarity on some of the rules in PJM, as we just talked about, are impacting discussions. But really what they want and what they start -- what these customers start with is they want a grid connection and they can contract for generation. Both existing and new to bring their power, but they still have to get a load interconnection done. And so what we really would like for the focus to be on is how do we start raising the bar on these load interconnection queues and have the utilities, particularly in PJM, where they control the load interconnection process, get these customers hooked up as quickly as possible. And so those are the things that we focus on, and they are certainly talking to us about. Bilateral contracts. And we think bilateral contracts is a good way to solve the issues in these markets because it addresses the affordability issue, it addresses the resource adequacy issue, and particularly co-location with existing plants where the customers are bringing backup generation, as we said many times, solves the super peak issue and takes advantage of the excess capacity that's on the grid today.

備援採購（backstop procurement）被釐清之前。我想回到真正重要的一點：我們談的是提高併網排隊（interconnection queue）的門檻，因為並不完全是——我的意思是，當然，正如我們剛談到的，PJM 某些規則缺乏明確性確實影響了討論。但他們真正想要、也是這些客戶一開始就想要的是：他們要電網併網（grid connection），而且他們可以為發電簽約。不論是既有或新增的發電資源來供電，但他們仍必須完成負載併網（load interconnection）。因此我們真正希望焦點放在：如何開始提高這些負載併網排隊的門檻，並讓公用事業公司——特別是在 PJM，因為他們掌控負載併網流程——盡快讓這些客戶完成接入。所以這些是我們關注的重點，而他們也確實在與我們討論。雙邊合約。我們認為雙邊合約是解決這些市場問題的好方法，因為它能處理可負擔性（affordability）問題、資源充足性（resource adequacy）問題；尤其是與既有電廠共址、且客戶自帶備援發電（backup generation），如我們多次提到的，能解決超尖峰（super peak）問題，並利用當前電網上的剩餘容量。

Got it. That's very helpful. Thanks for that. And then you mentioned you guys mentioned this shift a little bit toward natural gas. I'm curious in your conversations with the gas providers upstream, both the midstream providers, is the we have the resource, we know that in the U.S., we have that. That's very clear. But is the infrastructure in place to provide this increase in natural gas or is it getting in place?

了解。這非常有幫助。謝謝。另外你們提到你們有一點轉向天然氣。我很好奇，在你們與上游天然氣供應商（包括中游業者 midstream providers）的對話中——我們知道美國有資源，這點很清楚。這非常明確。但基礎設施是否已到位，能提供這樣增加的天然氣供應？或正在到位？

Yeah, broadly speaking, James, it's like everything in this business, location matters, but in quantity of supply, plenty. I mean, and I think that's why you're seeing some of the announcements, not just from us, but other parties as to where folks are expanding. I mean, even us putting. Capital to work in West Texas, where we see the Permian units having real opportunity, it just like our co-location point, it makes sense to go where the resources are. So, yes, there may be some infrastructure that needs to be built out. I'd call it modest, like in some of our coal to gas conversions, but all that's factored in to this. So as a country, we are blessed to have the gas resources that we have. I think the customers see that. As a real opportunity and obviously speed to power, gas is available and with the places where we're looking to go, you can get access to it even if there needs to be some laterals built, that's not the biggest hurdle. So to me, it's smart, it's actually aligned with speed and affordability. And so I think working with our gas partners, and we've had some really good relationships over the years and developing them as part of this new load growth, they're excited about it. Like they see this as real opportunity too. And so I think this is a nice solution for the customer.

是的，James，廣義來說，這行業跟所有事情一樣，地點很重要，但就供應量而言，非常充足。我想這也是你看到一些公告的原因，不只是我們，其他方也在宣布大家在哪些地方擴張。我的意思是，甚至我們把……資本投入西德州，因為我們看到二疊紀（Permian）資產有很大的機會；就像我們談共址一樣，去資源所在之處是合理的。所以，是的，可能需要建一些基礎設施。我會說是溫和的需求，例如我們一些燃煤轉燃氣（coal to gas）改造案，但這些都已納入考量。因此，作為一個國家，我們很幸運擁有這些天然氣資源。我認為客戶也把這視為……一個真正的機會；而且就供電速度而言，天然氣是可取得的，在我們考慮前往的地點，你可以取得供氣，即使需要建一些支線管線（laterals），那也不是最大的障礙。所以對我來說，這很明智，且確實符合速度與可負擔性。因此，與我們的天然氣合作夥伴一起合作——多年來我們建立了很好的關係，並在這波新負載成長中持續深化——他們也很興奮。他們也把這視為真正的機會。所以我認為這對客戶而言是一個很好的解決方案。

Thank you guys.

謝謝各位。

Moses Sutton, BNP Paribas.

Moses Sutton，法國巴黎銀行（BNP Paribas）。

Hi, Jimmy. Thanks for taking my question. I want to return to the ERCOT batch process. You mentioned the 30-40 type number. By 2030, that's about 5%, 6% caker. We have the same type of numbers in our own model.

嗨，Jimmy。謝謝你回答我的問題。我想回到 ERCOT 的批次流程。你提到 30 到 40 這個數字。到 2030 年，這大約是 5%、6% 的 CAGR。我們在自己的模型裡也有同樣類型的數字。

Do you expect all or most of that comes through in batch zero? It seems a bit opaque. That has 145 gigawatts in there. And then under the hood, how much would you look at in terms of non-firm and CLR classification? And I can see. Vistra is pretty heavy in the public proceedings there. So any color there would be quite helpful, how you think that plays out?

你預期全部或大部分會在 batch zero 反映出來嗎？這看起來有點不透明。裡面有 145 吉瓦。那在更細部來看，就 non-firm 與 CLR 分類而言，你會看多少？我也看到。Vistra 在那邊的公開程序參與得相當深。所以如果能提供一些看法會很有幫助，你認為會怎麼發展？

Yeah, Moses, let me start. I think part of the challenge here, and this is something that is a positive about competitive markets, but could also be a challenge with competitive markets, is the bar is really low to get into the load queue, and it's low to get into the generation queue. And the resources to study this, both at the utilities as well as at ERCOT, there is ultimately a constraint. And the question before us, I think, is what's real? And we're trying to give a view as to what's real. We wish the bar were higher for both of the queues, but particularly now the load queue, because I think what we run the risk of.

好的，Moses，我先說。我認為這裡的部分挑戰在於——這也是競爭市場的優點之一，但同時也可能是競爭市場的挑戰——就是進入負載排隊（load queue）的門檻非常低，進入發電排隊（generation queue）的門檻也很低。而用來研究這些的資源，不論是在公用事業端或在 ERCOT 端，最終都是受限的。我想我們面前的問題是：哪些是真的？而我們正試著提供一個對「哪些是真的」的觀點。我們希望兩個排隊的門檻都能更高，但尤其是現在的負載排隊，因為我認為我們面臨的風險是。

Is that a bunch of projects get allocated some level of transmission, but they're not real and they're not going to move as fast as the projects that are ready and are real. I've heard that batch zero could be as big as potentially even 100 gigawatts, okay? If we think the numbers 10 to 15 of additional data center between 2025 and 2030.

一堆專案被分配到某種程度的輸電資源，但它們不是真的，也不會像那些已準備好、且是真實的專案那樣快速推進。我聽說 batch zero 可能大到甚至 100 吉瓦，好嗎？如果我們認為 2025 到 2030 年之間新增資料中心的數字是 10 到 15（吉瓦）。

You don't even really need a whole lot of batch zero. You actually need what's already been allowed to ramp. It's been energized, but is not at the full take at this point in terms of peak capacity, plus what's in baseline, which could be about 17 gigawatts. So, batch zero could almost end up becoming on top of every estimate that we've provided. So.

你其實不太需要很大規模的 batch zero。你真正需要的是已經被允許爬坡（ramp）的那些。它們已經送電（energized），但就尖峰容量而言目前還沒到滿載取用（full take），再加上 baseline 裡的部分，可能約 17 吉瓦。所以，batch zero 幾乎可能變成疊加在我們已提供的每一個估計之上。所以。

But it's getting a lot of focus because people say, how are we going to serve, hundreds, potentially 3 to 400 gigawatts of load?

但它受到很多關注，因為有人說，我們要怎麼服務數百、可能 300 到 400 吉瓦的負載？

That is not helpful from a policy perspective. And if I were a policymaker, I'd be worried if that were the number. You can't get to that number with a $3 to $4 trillion CapEx spend by the hyperscalers. You can't get to that number if it all came to Texas. And we think Texas is going to get more than its fair share, but it's not all coming to Texas. So in my view and where we've been trying to inform policymakers is we've been pushing that the world gets simpler if the commitments to be real.

從政策角度來看，這並沒有幫助。如果我是政策制定者，若那個數字是真的，我會很擔心。即使超大規模業者（hyperscalers）的資本支出（CapEx）投入 3 到 4 兆美元，你也不可能達到那個數字。就算全部都來德州，也不可能達到那個數字。我們認為德州會拿到超過其「合理份額」的量，但不會全部都來德州。所以在我看來，我們一直試著向政策制定者傳達的是：如果承諾能更「真實」，世界就會更簡單。

Move up. And we're still advocating for that. And I think that would speed up the load that's real. And I think it would also address some of these affordability and reliability concerns. So that zero is interesting. We'll see where it goes. But most of the numbers that we're sharing with you don't even really require a lot coming to fruition as energized load.

把它往前移。我們仍在倡議這件事。我認為那會加速那些真實的負載落地。我也認為那會處理一些可負擔性與可靠性方面的疑慮。所以 batch zero 很有意思。我們會看看它會走向哪裡。但我們跟你分享的大多數數字，其實甚至不太需要有很多負載在 2030 年前真正以已送電負載（energized load）的形式成真。

By 2030. Now, we hope it comes, but there's already a lot that's being processed and will continue to be energized.

到 2030 年。當然，我們希望它會來，但已經有很多正在處理中，並且會持續送電上線。

Incredibly helpful. And I guess some of the parallel questions on PJM, with the behind the meter comments you made, how big -- you mentioned Connect and Manage. How big do you think it can actually be? Do you think the majority is headed that way? Is that going to be more of an Ohio story?

非常有幫助。我想在 PJM 方面也有一些平行的問題，關於你提到的表後（behind the meter）評論——你提到 Connect and Manage。你覺得它實際上可能有多大？你認為大多數會往那個方向走嗎？那會比較像是俄亥俄州的故事嗎？

Virginia, any thoughts you can give on Connect and Manage beyond high level?

維吉尼亞州呢？對於 Connect and Manage，除了高層次之外，你有沒有任何想法可以分享？

Yeah, it's you've actually, and we should probably have a bigger discussion offline, Moses, because I think the policy paper yesterday, which I mentioned already, I thought was incredibly helpful. It raises the level of discussion to where I think we ultimately should go, which is...

是的，其實你——而且我們可能應該私下再深入聊一次，Moses，因為我昨天提到的那份政策白皮書，我覺得非常有幫助。它把討論層級提升到我認為我們最終應該前往的方向，也就是……

Different products will probably have different attributes. Some products might actually be firm from a capacity standpoint. Some may not be. That could be a cheaper product. That could be one that gets you connected sooner. And that's ultimately a customer choice. And where I'd like to see the conversation go is where load-serving entities, such as Vistra. Are actually looking at these as products that they're offering to their customers. And customers are opting in to the product that provides the attributes they're looking for. That could cover capacity, that could cover energy. I realize I'm moving forward in that discussion from white paper to recommendation. But I think where we're having trouble right now is we have a central body that's trying to make product choices. For everybody and where to set that bar.

不同的產品可能會有不同的屬性。有些產品在容量（capacity）角度可能其實是 firm（保證的）。有些可能不是。那可能是一個更便宜的產品。也可能是一個讓你更快接入（connected）的產品。而那最終是客戶的選擇。我希望看到的討論方向是：由負載服務實體（load-serving entities），例如 Vistra，把這些當作他們提供給客戶的產品來看。而客戶選擇加入（opt in）能提供其所需屬性的產品。那些屬性可能涵蓋容量，也可能涵蓋電能（energy）。我知道我在這個討論上，已經從白皮書往建議推進了。但我認為我們現在的困難在於，有一個中央機構正試著替所有人做產品選擇，以及要把門檻設在哪裡。

And I think the hyperscalers are learning the opportunities to be flexible. You've seen some hyperscalers really lean into that with a lot of public announcements. We were part of announcements with Emerald AI about their tools to be more flexible, and they're doing some pilots in Silicon Valley with NVIDIA that I think will be very interesting from a demonstration of this capability. So I do think the world, as we look at trade-offs, is starting to become more accepting of. Some level of flexibility in order to get speed.

而我認為超大規模業者正在學習彈性的機會。你已經看到一些超大規模業者透過許多公開宣布，真的很投入這件事。我們也參與了與 Emerald AI 的一些宣布，關於他們用工具提升彈性；他們也正在矽谷與 NVIDIA 做一些試點，我認為這會非常有意思，能展示這種能力。所以我確實認為，當我們看取捨（trade-offs）時，這個世界正開始更能接受。為了速度而在某種程度上接受彈性。

How soon does that materialize? I can't say. And at what price? Because the question is, where does an RBP clear?

那會多快實現？我無法說。以及在什麼價格？因為問題在於：RBP 會在什麼水準成交（clear）？

And what does it cost to be firm versus potentially be connected and managed? I don't think we have those details yet. I think that's something we're very active in, but I think it's too early to call it. And I think customers, because they have choices as to where to go, they can decide which markets to go into, which states, obviously, to go into.

以及要做到 firm 的成本，對比可能採用 connected and managed（接入並管理）的成本是多少？我認為我們還沒有那些細節。我認為這是我們非常積極在投入的事情，但我覺得現在下結論還太早。而且我認為客戶因為有選擇——他們可以決定要進入哪些市場、哪些州——顯然可以自行做決定。

We serve a lot of them, so we hope to serve them in one of our markets, but I don't think we can give you a prediction of how much would be flexible and how much would be firm. And. And Stacey, I'd welcome any feedback on this.

我們服務其中許多客戶，因此我們希望能在我們的某個市場為他們提供服務，但我不認為我們能對有多少會是彈性的、以及有多少會是確定的，給出預測。而且。而且，Stacey，我也歡迎你就此提供任何回饋。

Yeah, thanks, Jim.

是的，謝謝，Jim。

I would just add that, as Jim noted, the customers are willing to be flexible.

我只想補充一下，正如Jim提到的，客戶願意保持彈性。

And in some ways, the rules, especially in PJM, actually need to catch up to the customer because the customers just want to know what those rules are so they can make decisions about, do they bring backup GIN, how much do they bring, when are they going to have to turn it on? And so, Connect and Manage, as an example.

而在某些方面，規則——尤其是在PJM——其實需要追上客戶，因為客戶只是想知道那些規則是什麼，好讓他們能做決策：他們是否要帶備援GIN、要帶多少、以及什麼時候必須啟用？因此，以Connect and Manage為例。

Is behind from a process standpoint, the backstop procurement. And what PJM, I think, is hearing from customers and other stakeholders, and they're acknowledging this in the stakeholder meetings, is that really those two things have to go together, the backstop procurement and Connect and Manage, because customers will make decisions about how much generation they contract with when they understand what it means for their flexibility criteria. And I think PJM is. Trying to be responsive to that and potentially accelerating some of the Connect and Manage rulemaking, but we'll see how that plays out. In ERCOT, for example, we are starting to get more clarity around what the flexibility rules are.

從流程角度來看，它落後於後備採購（backstop procurement）。而我認為PJM從客戶與其他利害關係人那裡聽到、並且也在利害關係人會議中承認的是：這兩件事必須結合在一起——後備採購與Connect and Manage——因為當客戶理解其對彈性標準意味著什麼時，他們才會就要簽約多少發電量做出決策。而我認為PJM正在。試圖對此做出回應，並可能加速部分Connect and Manage的規則制定，但我們還要看後續如何發展。例如在ERCOT，我們開始更清楚地了解彈性規則是什麼。

Some of the net metering arrangements that have been approved have now set some of those rules. And so as the rules are set, I think the customers, to Jim's point, will adopt the products that match what the availability of those. Products are. And so, I just think the regulatory process in some ways needs to actually catch up with the customer willingness to be flexible so that they can get connected. But again, it kind of -- we're maybe beating a dead horse on this, but again, it goes back to, like, can they get connected and win? And if they can, I think you'll see them be very creative around these flexibility solutions.

一些已獲核准的淨計量（net metering）安排，現在已經訂出其中一些規則。因此，隨著規則被確立，我認為客戶——如同Jim所說——會採用與其可用性相匹配的產品。產品。所以我只是認為，在某些方面，監管流程確實需要追上客戶願意保持彈性的程度，這樣他們才能完成併網。但再說一次，這有點——我們可能是在老生常談——但它又回到：他們能不能併網並且勝出？如果可以，我想你會看到他們在這些彈性解決方案上非常有創意。

Super helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thank you both.

謝謝你們兩位。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

David Arcaro，Morgan Stanley。

Hey, thanks so much. Good morning.

嘿，非常感謝。早安。

Hey, David.

嘿，David。

I was wondering if you could comment on where's the conversation on contracting your remaining nuclear fleet versus potentially making more progress with the gas plants?

我想請教你們能否評論一下：關於為你們剩餘的核電機組簽約的討論進展如何？相較之下，是否可能在燃氣電廠方面取得更多進展？

Sure, David, we can count on you for that question. So, we appreciate it. I'm going to let Stacey comment. Thanks, David.

當然，David，我們就知道你一定會問這個問題。所以，我們很感謝。我先請Stacey來回應。謝謝，David。

Thanks, David, for the question.

謝謝你，David，謝謝你的問題。

We do continue to have conversations on both. I'm not going to get into which is going to come first or predictions about dates because, as we said before, these are complex discussions. They're customer-driven. And we continue to make progress and we feel very good about what. Our opportunity set is across our portfolio, both gas, nuclear, and, even new build options.

我們確實持續就兩者進行對話。我不會談哪一個會先發生或對日期做預測，因為如同我們先前所說，這些都是複雜的討論。它們是由客戶驅動的。而我們也持續取得進展，並且對。我們在整體資產組合中的機會集合感到非常樂觀——包括燃氣、核能，甚至新建選項。

Yes. Got it. Okay.

是的。了解。好。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你的說明。

And then maybe looking at slide 7, I see you maybe more explicitly highlighting here development opportunities at gas and coal plants, the new gas plants that you mentioned there. Just curious, are you... Kind of intentionally moving more toward the new build strategy or looking more at hybrid offerings, combining new megawatts and existing Gen.

另外，或許看一下第7頁投影片，我看到你們在這裡更明確地強調了在燃氣與燃煤電廠的開發機會，以及你們提到的新燃氣電廠。只是好奇，你們是否……是有意更朝向新建策略移動，或是更著重於混合式方案，把新增的兆瓦數與既有發電（Gen）結合？

As you're progressing these contracting conversations.

在你們推進這些簽約對話的過程中。

Yeah, David, it's really customer-driven. I think part of.

是的，David，這真的取決於客戶驅動。我想其中一部分。

Part of what we've seen happen in the last two years is, as we've talked about, customers came in with a set of what I call preferences, and then those evolved to needs as they tried to figure out what the art of the possible was. I think that's still happening. I think that's why Bridgepower, which came up on one of the earlier questions, this discussion two years ago wasn't about Bridgepower, and it sort of has evolved to Bridgepower as an example. I think co-location.

我們在過去兩年看到的一部分情況是——如同我們談過的——客戶一開始帶著一套我稱之為「偏好」的要求進來，然後當他們試著弄清楚「可行的範圍」時，那些偏好就演變成需求。我認為這仍在發生。我想這也是為什麼Bridgepower——在前面某個問題中提到——兩年前的討論還不是在談Bridgepower，但它某種程度上已演變成以Bridgepower作為一個例子。我認為共址（co-location）。

Was an early idea, then people are trying to figure out how the tariffs work. I think co-location is going to be coming back with new and existing into the picture. So I would not view this as we have a shift in strategy. What we're doing is kind of meeting the customer needs as the customer needs adapt, and they are different by hyperscalers or even different in different geographies.

曾是一個早期想法，接著大家在試著弄清楚費率（tariffs）如何運作。我認為共址會在新建與既有資產都納入考量後，再次回到討論中。所以我不會把這視為我們策略出現轉向。我們所做的是在客戶需求調整的同時，去滿足客戶需求；而且不同的超大規模客戶（hyperscalers）之間，甚至不同地理區域之間，需求也不一樣。

I think this 4,500 megawatts was as much a reminder to ourselves as it was to the market that we are developing a fair amount of assets, but not because we started off with just the intention of let's go develop all of assets. We have to steward the shareholders' capital.

我認為這4,500兆瓦，與其說是提醒市場，不如說同樣是在提醒我們自己：我們確實在開發相當數量的資產，但並不是因為我們一開始就只有「去把所有資產都開發出來」的意圖。我們必須善盡對股東資本的管理責任。

And if the right stewardship of that capital is not to do these kinds of projects, then we're going to make the right call. And I think Chris can talk at length about how we think about that. But we do want to meet customer needs, and we can do that and get the right returns for shareholders. That's a win-win, growing our business, meeting the needs of the customers, returning capital to shareholders. So I would not say that we have some commitment to a pipe or a commitment to build a certain number of megawatts as. Overall theme because I think that can be limiting in terms of market opportunities. And we have been opportunistic. I think we've shown that and we've been disciplined. So I see us sticking with that.

如果對這些資本的最佳管理方式不是去做這類專案，那我們就會做出正確的決定。我想Chris可以很深入地談我們如何思考這件事。但我們確實希望滿足客戶需求，而且我們也能在做到這點的同時，為股東取得適當的報酬。那就是雙贏：擴大我們的業務、滿足客戶需求、把資本回饋給股東。所以我不會說我們對某條管線（pipe）有什麼承諾，或承諾要建多少兆瓦作為。整體主題，因為我認為那可能會限制市場機會。而我們一直是把握機會的。我想我們已經展現了這點，而且我們也一直很自律。所以我認為我們會持續這樣做。

Yeah, absolutely. Okay.

是的，完全同意。好。

Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

非常感謝。感激不盡。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，David。

Bill Appicelli, UBS.

Bill Appicelli，UBS。

Hi, good morning. Just going back to some of the commentary you had earlier around ERCOT and the forward curves, you talked about the incremental load growth you see over the next several years.

嗨，早安。回到你先前對ERCOT與遠期曲線（forward curves）的一些評論，你提到未來幾年你們看到的增量負載成長。

I mean, what do you think is driving that sort of mispricing that you see in the curve? Is that just a lack of conviction given all this sort of confusion out there?

我的意思是，你認為是什麼在驅動你在曲線中看到的那種錯誤定價（mispricing）？那只是因為外界有這麼多混亂，導致缺乏信心嗎？

I mean, and how much upside do you see just based on your load forecast?

我的意思是，僅就你們的負載預測而言，你們認為還有多少上行空間？

Yes, I'm going to start, and I'm going to ask Sean Stuckey to chime in. I think there's a couple drivers. One is, I think folks are trying to get their head around what is a fair load forecast for the reasons we talked about earlier on the call and just the amount of discussion around the size of these batches. And when are you going to get approval to hook up the load? Again, I don't think that is actually driving what our view of a load forecast is in the near term. And we think the forward curves don't reflect even our view of a load forecast. I do think the amount of batteries that have come into the market for the last three years have returned virtually nothing to the owners of those batteries.

是的，我先開始，然後我會請 Sean Stuckey 也補充一下。我認為有幾個驅動因素。其中之一是，我想大家正試著釐清什麼才是合理的負載預測，原因就是我們先前在電話會議中談到的，以及圍繞這些批次規模的討論量很大。還有你們什麼時候會拿到核准把負載接上？再說一次，我不認為這實際上在短期內驅動我們對負載預測的看法。而且我們認為遠期曲線甚至沒有反映我們對負載預測的看法。我確實認為，過去三年進入市場的電池數量，幾乎沒有為這些電池的所有者帶來任何回報。

And I do think the batteries will end up shaking out at some point because as we know, most of them are in the one to two hour variety. So when the higher load factor loads. Does come on to the system, it's not designed to meet that high load factor customer profile. But the batteries have been a material increase in supply. And when you have a low volatility kind of environment, because the weather has not been that strong, you haven't seen the clears be very high. So I think that's part of this backdrop that we're seeing, and particularly since 2023, when you saw the kind of peak in the August '23.

而且我確實認為，電池最終會在某個時間點出現淘汰與整併，因為如我們所知，大多數都是一到兩小時的類型。所以當較高負載因子（load factor）的負載開始接入系統時，它並不是為了滿足那種高負載因子客戶輪廓而設計的。但電池確實帶來了供給的實質增加。而當你處在一個低波動的環境中，因為天氣並沒有那麼強，你就不會看到結算價（clears）非常高。所以我認為這是我們所看到的這個背景的一部分，特別是自 2023 年以來，當你在 2023 年 8 月看到那種高峰。

Real-time prices. And we just haven't seen that level since then. Even though the underlying load is growing, the peak has not been growing quite as fast. So, Sean, I'd love to hear your comments. If there's anything about how that's kind of worked its way through the forwards and anything you're seeing is sort of drivers that they can keep an eye on.

即時價格。而自那之後，我們就沒有再看到那樣的水準。即便基礎負載在成長，尖峰負載的成長速度並沒有那麼快。所以，Sean，我很想聽聽你的看法。包括這些因素如何傳導到遠期市場，以及你看到有哪些驅動因素是大家可以留意的。

Yeah. Thanks, Jim.

是的。謝謝，Jim。

So what I would add to that is, this is a recurring theme that we've seen across the ERCOT market throughout the years.

我想補充的是，這是我們多年來在 ERCOT 市場反覆看到的一個主題。

The term markets really do trade off of near-term weather and near-term pricing, so expectations of load.

期限市場（term markets）確實主要是根據短期天氣與短期價格來交易，因此對負載的預期。

Growth in the term is obviously a significant driver, but we've seen it time and time again, existing weather in cash really drives the forwards. And I think if you look at what happened around April 14th, April 15th, two things happened.

期限內的成長顯然是一個重要驅動因素，但我們一次又一次看到，現行天氣與現貨（cash）市場的狀況才是真正驅動遠期（forwards）。而我認為如果你看 4 月 14 日、4 月 15 日左右發生的事，有兩件事發生了。

ERCOT released their long-term load forecast.

ERCOT 發布了他們的長期負載預測。

I think people looked at some of the numbers in there and started to wake up and sort of think about the possibility of what was realistic as well as what was not realistic in those load growth expectations.

我想大家看了裡面的一些數字後開始警覺，並開始思考那些負載成長預期中，哪些是現實的、哪些是不現實的可能性。

And there was also some heat that was showing up in late April.

另外，在 4 月下旬也出現了一些高溫訊號。

We did see some heat. We did see some pricing.

我們確實看到了一些高溫。我們也確實看到了一些價格反應。

And you've seen the forwards respond accordingly.

而你也看到遠期價格相應地做出反應。

You. Saw both summer and winter prices move up fairly materially.

你看到夏季與冬季價格都相當明顯地上升。

And I think that has been a recurring theme over time, and we expect that to continue. So I think it's kind of more of the same.

而我認為這一直以來都是反覆出現的主題，我們也預期這種情況會持續。所以我覺得大致上就是同樣的情況再度上演。

Thank you, Sean.

謝謝你，Sean。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Thank you. And then just one quick follow-up.

謝謝。然後再一個很快的追問。

When you guys are talking about the gas bridge power, I mean, is that generally aeroderivatives? Is that what you're looking at there?

你們在談到燃氣過渡電力（gas bridge power）時，我的意思是，那一般是航改型燃氣渦輪（aeroderivatives）嗎？你們是在看那個嗎？

No, we haven't been technology. We actually are talking to multiple OEMs about different technologies and some customers have different preferences to technology. So unless Stacy has a different view based on the discussions I'm in with Stacy and her team, we're seeing all of the varieties coming through and it sort of depends on availability, cost.

不是，我們並沒有鎖定某一種技術。我們其實正在和多家 OEM 討論不同技術，而且有些客戶對技術有不同偏好。所以除非 Stacy 基於我與 Stacy 及其團隊正在進行的討論有不同看法，我們看到的是各種不同方案都在出現，這在某種程度上取決於可得性、成本。

And the customer preferences.

以及客戶偏好。

Yeah, I agree, Jim. That's actually an advantage that Vistra has is we're driven by what the customer need is. We're not committed to one technology or another. So based on what their needs are, we're able to help them identify what's available and what would serve their needs. And that can be a variety of different types of OEMs and technologies. All right, great.

是的，我同意，Jim。這其實是 Vistra 的一個優勢：我們是由客戶需求所驅動。我們不會承諾只採用某一種技術。所以根據他們的需求，我們能協助他們辨識有哪些可用方案，以及哪些能滿足他們的需求。而這可能涵蓋各種不同類型的 OEM 與技術。好，太好了。

Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies LLC.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith，Jefferies LLC。

Hey, Jim.

嗨，Jim。

Thank you guys very much for the time. I appreciate it. Nice to chat with you guys here.

非常感謝你們撥冗。我很感激。很高興在這裡和你們聊聊。

Hey, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks again, guys. Maybe to talk in a little bit of a different term for permutation here, can you talk about hedging capacity? We saw one of your smaller peers here put up a 12-year capacity deal here. Can you talk about how you think about hedging out, maybe in a comfortable way, any kind of MISO or MISO exports on term in a way that might sidestep additionally?

再次感謝各位。也許換個角度來談一下這裡的不同排列組合（permutation），你們能談談容量避險（hedging capacity）嗎？我們看到你們一個規模較小的同業在這裡做了一筆 12 年期的容量合約。你們能談談你們如何思考在期限上，以一種較為舒適的方式，對任何 MISO 或 MISO 外送（exports）進行避險，並且可能在某種程度上避免額外影響嗎？

And then separately, any ability to get term in PGM on capacity, how do you think about that opportunity here? Then I've got a quick follow-up.

另外，關於在 PGM 的容量上取得期限合約的能力，你們如何看待這裡的機會？然後我還有一個簡短的追問。

Sure.

當然。

So, Jillian, just so I make sure I understand your question, I mean, our deals that we have announced include capacity as part of the construct. Obviously, there's different ways we can contract, but as we discussed what we've announced already. With Meta as an example, we were contracting capacity and energy. So I just want to make sure I understand your question. Was it in light of every incrementally, right?

所以，Julian，為了確保我理解你的問題，我是說，我們已公告的交易在架構中包含容量（capacity）。顯然，我們有不同的簽約方式，但如同我們討論過我們已經公告的內容。以 Meta 為例，我們簽的是容量與能源（energy）。所以我只是想確認我理解你的問題。你的意思是就每一個增量（incrementally）而言，對吧？

Yeah.

對。

Yeah, as in like in this day and age, if you can't, if it's more difficult to get an energy and capacity contract, how do you think about just simply hedging capacity, right? I hear you, in fact, your earlier comments, you were very clear in saying, look, it seems as if you're maintaining length at 28 onwards when it comes to your energy hedging. And so, especially given what your peers are doing in hedging their capacity, I'm trying to bifurcate how you think about the different attributes that you can monetize, and especially being conscious that one of your peers got. This long-duration capacity contract, MISO, you all being very heavily oriented in the Midwest in some respects, is there an ability to kind of lean on that side?

對，也就是說在這個時代，如果你無法、或者更難取得同時包含能源與容量的合約，你們如何看待單純對容量做避險，對吧？我聽到你，事實上你先前的評論非常清楚地說，看起來在能源避險方面，你們在 2028 年之後仍維持多頭部位（maintaining length）。因此，特別是考量到同業在做容量避險，我試著把你們可變現的不同屬性拆開來理解你們的思考方式；同時也注意到你們某個同業拿到。這種長天期的容量合約；MISO，而你們在某些方面也相當偏向中西部布局，是否有能力在那一側多倚重一些？

Yeah, so the MISO fleet, as has been going through a transition. That's one of the markets that we serve that is a coal, coal-fired.

是的，所以 MISO 的機組組合一直在經歷轉型。那是我們服務的市場之一，屬於燃煤、燃煤發電的。

Fleet. And there's a lot in that question, Julian, because there's a lot of overlay of what's happening with federal policies and obviously state policies.

機組。而且這個問題涵蓋很多內容，Julian，因為其中疊加了許多聯邦政策以及顯然還有州政策正在發生的事情。

I would turn the question a little bit broader to say those are great sites and opportunities for us to do things with parties that may not be with assets, because in reality, the existing assets. Have a life to them. There's a debate about just how much more life is there, but it's not the same as the nuclear fleet. So I think you're going to see the development opportunities come to pass for us. And as we noted in our slides, we have hundreds of thousands of acres and 70 sites, but it's still going to be customer-driven. So I don't view MISO at the moment as we have an asset that's there. Can I go get a 12-year contract off of it? I don't know that that's going to be the right match. For that type of asset. But I do think those sites have real opportunity for us to do things for customers that are probably going to be a little bit more organic and take the redevelopment of the site into consideration.

我會把問題稍微拉大一點來看：那些都是很好的場址與機會，讓我們能與可能不一定是資產持有方的合作夥伴一起做一些事情，因為實際上，現有資產。是有其使用壽命的。關於還剩多少壽命存在爭論，但它不像核電機組那樣。所以我認為你會看到我們的開發機會逐步落地。而且如同我們在投影片中提到的，我們有數十萬英畝土地與 70 個場址，但仍然會由客戶需求驅動。因此我目前不把 MISO 視為我們已經有一個資產在那裡。我能不能用它拿到一份 12 年期合約？我不確定那會是正確的匹配。對於那種類型的資產。但我確實認為那些場址對我們而言有真正的機會，能為客戶做一些事情，而這些事情可能會更偏向自然成長，並把場址再開發納入考量。

Jim, since you bring it up that way, I mean, you all have been pretty instrumental in Illinois in talking about storage. I haven't heard you talk much about it today in the context of additional capacity. How do you think about leading the charge on that front, whether it's in Illinois in response to both the backstop and/or the state's mandates or, frankly, across the footprint? I mean, complimenting was sort of seemed like a ripe conversation for you guys in particular, but you haven't emphasized it here today, notably.

Jim，既然你這樣提到，我是說，你們在伊利諾伊州談儲能一直相當關鍵。但我今天沒有聽到你在「新增容量」的脈絡下談太多。你怎麼看待在這方面帶頭推動——不論是在伊利諾伊州，回應備援機制（backstop）和／或州的強制要求，或坦白說，在整個服務版圖上？我的意思是，搭配（complimenting）看起來本來是個很適合你們特別深入的話題，但你們今天在這裡並沒有特別強調，這點很明顯。

Yeah, that is probably because, Julian, the way we, again, think about our business is we start with the customer and what does the customer need look like. Batteries have different roles to play. Obviously, batteries on sites that might support data centers play a different role than just putting a wholesale battery. Out onto the system and hoping that it gets a fair capacity payment and maybe a spark or some sort of spread. And we've seen in ERCOT, that's been a difficult proposition. So when you look at the cost of these batteries, they have not come down in price as much as people might think. Obviously, there's ITC challenges if it's not more domestic.

是的，Julian，這可能是因為我們再次思考業務的方式，是從客戶出發：客戶需要的是什麼。電池有不同的角色。很顯然，設在可能支援資料中心的場址上的電池，扮演的角色不同於只是放一套批發型電池。把它接到系統上，然後希望它能拿到合理的容量費，或許再賺到火花價差（spark）或某種價差。而我們在 ERCOT 看到，那一直是個困難的命題。所以當你看這些電池的成本，它們的價格下滑幅度並沒有大家想像的那麼大。另外，如果來源不夠本土化，顯然在 ITC（投資稅額抵免）上也會有挑戰。

In origin, but we don't see from our math that batteries inherently have a better IRR opportunity. Than some of the other dispatchable options. But again, we're going to be customer-driven in the way we think about this. And so, there will be customers that prefer batteries. If that's part of the additionality for them, that's important. If the grid operators from an ELCC give credit for that or that helps with the flexibility requirement that they may have as part of their load ramp, then batteries will come into the picture. But I would tell you that.

就我們的試算來看，我們不認為電池本質上有更好的 IRR（內部報酬率）機會。相較於其他一些可調度的選項。但同樣地，我們思考這件事的方式會以客戶為驅動。因此，會有一些客戶偏好電池。如果那是他們「額外性」（additionality）的一部分，那就很重要。如果電網營運商在 ELCC（等效負載承載能力）上給予相應的信用，或這有助於滿足他們在負載爬坡（load ramp）中可能需要的彈性要求，那電池就會納入考量。但我會告訴你的是。

Simply the battery strategy as a wholesale product in the market, I would say, have debatable returns unless you can get a really long contract with an off-taker for it and reduce your market exposure.

單純把電池策略當作市場上的批發產品，我會說其報酬是有爭議的，除非你能與承購方（off-taker）簽到非常長期的合約，並降低你的市場曝險。

Yeah, hence my first question either. But I'll leave it there.

是的，所以我才會先問那個問題。不過我就先到這裡。

Thank you guys very much for the time this morning. Appreciate it.

非常感謝各位今天早上的時間。感激不盡。

Best of luck. Yeah.

祝你們好運。是的。

Thanks, Julian.

謝謝你，Julian。

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Burke for any closing remarks.

我想把會議交回給 Jim Burke，請他做結語。

Yeah, I just want to thank everybody for joining. I think you can tell based on this call, it's a very busy time, but it's also incredibly exciting for Vistra. And we're going to provide you updates as we continue to execute on this strategy.

是的，我只想感謝大家參與。我想你們從這通電話會感覺得到，這是一個非常忙碌的時期，但對 Vistra 來說也極其令人振奮。而且我們會在持續執行這項策略的過程中，向各位提供最新進展。

It's also an important moment for all of us in the industry. And I think a lot of policy discussion is occurring, and Vistra is going to do its part to make sure that we're part of that and that we deliver reliably and affordably. I want to thank our team for their service to our customers and to our communities. And I want to thank our shareholders for their interest in Vistra, and we look forward to seeing you in person soon. Have a great rest of your day.

這對我們產業中的所有人來說也是一個重要時刻。我認為目前有很多政策討論正在進行，而 Vistra 會盡一份力，確保我們參與其中，並且以可靠且可負擔的方式交付。我要感謝我們的團隊為客戶與社區所做的服務。也要感謝股東對 Vistra 的關注，我們期待很快能與各位面對面見面。祝各位今天剩下的時間一切順利。

The conference is now concluded.

本次會議到此結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的簡報。您現在可以斷線。