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Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to Vistra's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note today's event is being recorded.
大家好,歡迎參加Vistra 2025年第四季財報電話會議。(操作說明)也請注意,今天的活動正在錄製中。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Eric Micek, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
現在我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁埃里克·米塞克。請繼續。
Eric Micek - Vice President, Investor Relations
Eric Micek - Vice President, Investor Relations
Good morning, and thank you for joining Vistra's investor webcast discussing our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results. Our discussion today is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and earnings release. Providing our prepared remarks today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kris Moldovan, Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other senior vista executives will be available to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.
早安,感謝您參加Vistra的投資人網路直播,本次直播將討論我們2025年第四季和全年業績。我們今天的討論會正在公司網站 www.vistracorp.com 的投資者關係頁面進行現場直播。您也可以在那裡找到今天的投資者簡報和收益報告。今天代表 Vistra 發表演說的是 Vistra 總裁兼執行長 Jim Burke;以及 Vistra 執行副總裁兼財務長 Kris Moldovan。如有必要,Vista 的其他高階主管將在今天電話會議的第二部分回答問題。
Our earnings release, presentation and other matters discussed on the call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. All references to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow before growth throughout this presentation refer to ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA and ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the earnings release and in the appendix to the investor presentation available in the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website. Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied.
我們今天在電話會議上討論的收益報告、簡報和其他事項中都提到了某些非GAAP財務指標。本簡報中所有提及的調整後 EBITDA 和成長前調整後自由現金流均指持續經營調整後 EBITDA 和成長前持續經營調整後自由現金流。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整表在收益發布和投資者簡報的附錄中提供,可在 Vistra 網站的投資者關係部分取得。此外,今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述是基於我們認為截至今日才合理的假設。此類前瞻性陳述存在某些風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異。
We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements. I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statements included on Slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explains the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation, and the use of non-GAAP financial measures. I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.
我們不承擔更新前瞻性聲明的義務。我鼓勵所有聽眾查看我們網站上投資者簡報第 2 頁中的安全港聲明,其中解釋了前瞻性聲明的風險、簡報中包含的某些行業和市場數據的局限性以及非 GAAP 財務指標的使用。現在我將把電話轉交給我們的總裁兼執行長吉姆伯克。
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss Vistra's fourth quarter and full year 2025 results. 2025 was a transformational year for Vistra. We made a number of moves that I believe underscore the value of our integrated model. We executed strategic asset acquisitions enter into long-term power purchase agreements, accomplishments that were made possible by close collaboration across the company, including development, operations and commercial, as well as our retail and functional teams.
謝謝你,艾瑞克,大家早安。感謝您參加本次會議,共同探討Vistra 2025年第四季及全年業績。 2025年是Vistra的轉型之年。我認為,我們採取的一系列措施凸顯了我們一體化模式的價值。我們執行了策略性資產收購,並簽訂了長期購電協議。這些成就的成就得益於公司各部門的密切合作,包括開發、營運和商業部門,以及我們的零售和職能團隊。
This tightly coordinated execution is a direct result of the focus and discipline of our people and reflects the One Team culture that drives our strong performance at Vistra. These accomplishments demonstrate our ability to deliver industry-leading power solutions to our customers, execute complex transactions and deliver day-to-day operational excellence, all while driving significant value for our shareholders. We remain confident in the ever-increasing customer demand for power, enthusiastic about the growth opportunities that load growth presents for Vistra, and eager to continue to partner with our customers to realize those opportunities and serve their needs. We look forward to building on this momentum as we move through 2026 and beyond. Turning to Slide 5.
這種緊密協調的執行力直接源自於我們員工的專注和自律,體現了Vistra「一個團隊」的文化,而正是這種文化推動了我們的優秀表現。這些成就證明了我們有能力為客戶提供業界領先的電力解決方案,執行複雜的交易,並實現日常營運的卓越表現,同時為我們的股東創造巨大的價值。我們依然對客戶不斷增長的電力需求充滿信心,對負載成長為Vistra帶來的發展機會感到興奮,並渴望繼續與客戶合作,實現這些機遇,滿足他們的需求。我們期待在2026年及以後繼續保持這一發展勢頭。翻到第5張投影片。
Our integrated business model once again demonstrated its value and effectiveness as we delivered another year of record financial performance. For the full year, we achieved approximately $5.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and approximately $3.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth, both meaningfully above the midpoint of our original guidance ranges. These results reflect consistent operational performance from our generation, commercial and retail teams. The importance of operating assets safely and reliably was underscored during winter storm Fern at the end of January. During the 9-day event where we saw significant cold front impact most of the U.S., including temperatures below zero in West Texas and the Northeast, the team and the generation fleet delivered very strong performance.
我們的一體化商業模式再次證明了其價值和有效性,我們又一年取得了創紀錄的財務表現。全年來看,我們實現了約 59 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和約 36 億美元的調整後成長前自由現金流,這兩項數據均顯著高於我們最初預期範圍的中點。這些結果反映了我們代工、商業和零售團隊持續穩定的營運表現。1月底的冬季風暴「弗恩」凸顯了安全可靠地營運資產的重要性。在為期 9 天的寒流期間,美國大部分地區都受到了強烈的冷鋒影響,包括德克薩斯州西部和東北部地區的氣溫低於零度,但我們的團隊和發電廠表現出色。
Our team not only operated safely during difficult weather conditions, but also ran our assets extremely well during the event. This, coupled with our commercial risk management approach enabled us to serve our millions of retail customers and deliver a positive financial outcome despite the high volatility of both gas and power prices. Moving to growth. We took meaningful steps during the year to expand and strengthen our generation portfolio. In October, we closed the acquisition of 7 modern natural gas generation facilities totaling approximately 2,600 megawatts from LOTUS Infrastructure Partners.
我們的團隊不僅在惡劣天氣條件下安全作業,而且在活動期間也出色地運作了我們的設備。這一點,再加上我們的商業風險管理方法,使我們能夠服務數百萬零售客戶,並在天然氣和電力價格波動劇烈的情況下取得積極的財務成果。邁向成長。今年我們採取了切實有效的措施來擴大和加強我們的發電組合。10 月,我們完成了 LOTUS Infrastructure Partners 旗下 7 座現代化天然氣發電廠的收購,總裝置容量約為 2,600 兆瓦。
This transaction added highly efficient, dispatchable assets across key competitive regions, including PJM, New England, New York and California. Winter storm Fern was our first weather experience with these new assets, and we were pleased with their performance, and with the value they added to our overall fleet. Building on the Lotus transaction, we recently announced our agreement to acquire Cogentrix Energy which includes 10 modern natural gas generation facilities totaling approximately 5,500 megawatts of capacity, including 2 plants, Patriot and Hamilton Liberty that were completed in 2016 with heat rates well below 7,000. Together with the Lotus acquisition, these assets will further diversify our fleet, improve our geographic balance and significantly strengthen our ability to meet the growing demand for dispatchable generation across the country. Owning and operating high-quality dispatch and generation in competitive markets is core to our strategy.
此次交易在包括 PJM、新英格蘭、紐約和加州在內的主要競爭地區增加了高效、可調度的資產。冬季風暴「費恩」是我們首次使用這些新設備來應對惡劣天氣,我們對它們的表現以及它們為我們整個車隊帶來的價值感到滿意。在收購 Lotus 的基礎上,我們最近宣布了收購 Cogentrix Energy 的協議,該公司擁有 10 座現代化天然氣發電廠,總裝置容量約為 5,500 兆瓦,其中包括 2 座於 2016 年竣工的電廠 Patriot 和 Hamilton Liberty,其熱值遠低於 7,000。加上對 Lotus 的收購,這些資產將進一步使我們的車隊多樣化,改善我們的地理平衡,並顯著增強我們滿足全國範圍內日益增長的可調度發電需求的能力。在競爭激烈的市場中擁有和營運高品質的調度和發電設施是我們策略的核心。
We believe strategic acquisitions and asset integrations are one of our core capabilities that continue to deliver value to our shareholders. We also made significant progress contracting long-term nuclear capacity, enhancing the amount and durability of our cash flows. We have now contracted approximately 3.8 gigawatts of nuclear capacity through multiple power purchase agreements, including a 20-year agreement with Amazon Web Services for 1,200 megawatts at our Comanche Peak nuclear power plant in Texas, and 20-year agreements with Meta covering 2,176 megawatts of operating capacity, and an additional 430 megawatts of uprates at our PJM nuclear plants, the largest nuclear operates supported by a corporate customer in the United States. We are excited to partner with these world-class companies to be able to continue to provide reliable zero carbon electricity decades into the future. Overall, these and other actions taken in 2025 continue to strengthen Vistra's ability to reliably and affordably support the nation's growing power needs.
我們相信,策略性收購和資產整合是我們持續為股東創造價值的核心能力之一。我們在簽訂長期核電產能合約方面也取得了重大進展,提高了現金流的數量和持久性。我們目前已透過多項購電協議簽訂了約 3.8 吉瓦的核電容量合同,其中包括與亞馬遜網路服務公司簽訂的為期 20 年的協議,購買我們在德克薩斯州科曼奇峰核電站的 1200 兆瓦電力;與 Meta 公司簽訂的為期 20 年的協議,涵蓋 2176 兆瓦的額外電力站; 430 兆瓦升級容量。我們很高興能與這些世界一流的公司合作,以便在未來幾十年內繼續提供可靠的零碳電力。總體而言,這些以及2025年採取的其他行動將繼續增強Vistra可靠且經濟地支持國家日益增長的電力需求的能力。
Turning to Slide 6. For the eighth consecutive quarter, we continued to see a structurally improved demand environment that supports our long-term outlook. U.S. electricity consumption reached an all-time peak of approximately 4,200 terawatt hours during 2025, up about 2.5% versus 2024. We expect calendar years 2026 and 2027 to continue to show growth, which would mark the first 4-year period of sustained growth since the 4-year period ending 2007.
翻到第6張投影片。連續第八個季度,我們持續看到需求環境結構性改善,這支撐了我們的長期前景。2025 年,美國電力消耗量將達到約 4,200 太瓦時的歷史最高水平,比 2024 年增長約 2.5%。我們預計 2026 年和 2027 年將繼續保持成長,這將是自 2007 年結束的四年期以來首次連續四年保持成長。
Demand growth no longer appears to be episodic, but increasingly durable, a dynamic with important implications for the power sector. While the near-term outlook remains strong, we continue to believe the impact of data centers on tightening supply-demand dynamics will not meaningfully begin until late 2027 or early 2028, given most build schedules and interconnect timing. This is something we've been consistently messaging for some time. Load growth is real and significant, but it is likely not at the extremely elevated levels in the rapid time frame that has been forecasted by many third parties. The fact that we see the low growth coming more slowly than some forecast has not dampened our enthusiasm for the tremendous opportunities in front of us.
需求成長似乎不再是偶發性的,而是日益持久的,而這項動態對電力產業具有重要意義。儘管短期前景依然強勁,但考慮到大多數建設計劃和互連時間安排,我們仍然認為資料中心對供需關係趨緊的影響要到 2027 年底或 2028 年初才會真正開始顯現。這是我們一直以來都在反覆強調的訊息。負載成長是真實存在的,而且幅度很大,但不太可能像許多第三方預測的那樣,在短時間內達到極高的水平。儘管我們看到的低成長速度比一些人預測的要慢,但這並沒有削弱我們對眼前巨大機會的熱情。
In fact, we view a measured pace of growth as a positive. It naturally takes some time for supply and demand to go from concept to reality. We believe our company and the markets in which we operate can meet the moment. Our primary regions continue to outperform. We maintain our view that annual peak load growth of at least 3% to 5% at ERCOT, and low single-digit growth in PJM is achievable through 2030.
事實上,我們認為穩健的成長速度是件好事。供需關係從概念變成現實自然需要一些時間。我們相信,我們公司以及我們所處的市場能夠應對當前的挑戰。我們的主要區域繼續表現出色。我們仍然認為,到 2030 年,ERCOT 的年尖峰負載成長至少可以達到 3% 至 5%,而 PJM 的年尖峰負載成長可以達到個位數百分比。
Importantly, we expect overall loan growth to outpace peak demand, resulting in higher expected utilization across the system rather than short duration peaks alone. Implying the economics of existing generation assets will improve on a sustained basis. Data center development remains robust, and we believe key markets such as PJM and ERCOT will continue to attract a disproportionate share of new loan growth. While not every announced project will ultimately be built, even applying conservative assumptions, the level of activity supports the (inaudible) growth outlook that we've discussed. Recent commentary from hyperscale customers reinforces this view as they continue to emphasize expanding investment in AI and digital infrastructure.
重要的是,我們預計整體貸款成長將超過尖峰需求,從而導致整個系統的預期利用率更高,而不僅僅是短期的高峰利用率。這意味著現有發電資產的經濟效益將持續改善。資料中心發展依然強勁,我們相信 PJM 和 ERCOT 等主要市場將繼續吸引不成比例的新貸款成長份額。即使採用保守的假設,雖然並非所有已宣布的項目最終都會建成,但目前的活動水平支持了我們討論過的(聽不清楚的)成長前景。超大規模客戶最近的評論也印證了這個觀點,他們不斷強調要增加對人工智慧和數位基礎設施的投資。
Capital spending by the hyperscalers continues to rise to record levels and is expected to eclipse $700 billion in 2026, equivalent to roughly 50% year-over-year growth. This level of investment is notable and provides further support for sustained load growth. Demand growth creates a meaningful opportunity for Vistra. Following closing of Cogentrix, our large modern fleet of combined cycle gas generation assets will total approximately 26 gigawatts of capacity. Importantly, our fleet currently operates at a utilization rate of approximately 60%, and we continue to believe higher energy demand should drive materially higher utilization of existing assets over time, providing a practical and cost-effective way to meet load growth.
超大規模資料中心營運商的資本支出持續攀升至創紀錄水平,預計到 2026 年將超過 7,000 億美元,相當於年增約 50%。這種投資規模十分顯著,為持續的負載成長提供了進一步的支持。需求成長為Vistra創造了重要的發展機會。Cogentrix 專案關閉後,我們龐大的現代化聯合循環燃氣發電資產總裝置容量將達到約 26 吉瓦。重要的是,我們目前的車隊利用率約為 60%,我們仍然相信,隨著時間的推移,更高的能源需求將推動現有資產的利用率大幅提高,從而為滿足負載增長提供切實可行的成本效益方法。
Taken together, these trends underscore a demand environment that is structurally stronger than prior cycles, and Vistra is well positioned to meet growing electricity needs in our core markets. Moving to Slide 7. The Cogentrix acquisition represents the second opportunistic expansion of our generation footprint over the last 12 months. Similar to the Lotus transaction, it is an acquisition of high-quality dispatchable assets, competitive markets at an attractive price that we believe will drive meaningful per share accretion. As I mentioned earlier, we believe successfully integrating and operating generation assets at scale is a core competency of the company as we've demonstrated time and again starting with the Dynegy transaction, and continuing with our Energy Harbor and Lotus acquisitions.
綜合來看,這些趨勢凸顯當前的需求環境在結構上比以往的週期更為強勁,Vistra 已做好充分準備,滿足我們核心市場不斷增長的電力需求。切換到第7張投影片。收購 Cogentrix 是我們在過去 12 個月中第二次把握機會擴大我們的發電業務版圖。與 Lotus 的交易類似,這是一筆以有吸引力的價格收購高品質可調度資產、具有競爭力的市場的交易,我們相信這將推動每股收益的顯著增長。正如我之前提到的,我們相信成功整合和大規模營運發電資產是公司的核心競爭力,我們已經一次又一次地證明了這一點,從 Dynegy 交易開始,到後來的 Energy Harbor 和 Lotus 收購,我們都證明了這一點。
For Cogentrix, we see similar opportunities to boost the portfolio's earnings profile over time as we get into our normal integration activities. From a financial perspective, we view the purchase price is attractive at approximately $730 per kilowatt of capacity net of expected tax benefits, and we expect the transaction to deliver mid-single-digit adjusted free cash flow before growth per share accretion in 2027, with a high single-digit accretion on average over the '27, '29 period. We look forward to closing the transaction in 2026 and welcoming our new team members to the Vistra family. More broadly, we continue to believe that natural gas generation will play a critical role in delivering reliable, affordable and flexible power the U.S. electricity markets.
對於 Cogentrix,隨著我們進入正常的整合活動,我們看到了類似的提升投資組合獲利能力的機會。從財務角度來看,我們認為此次收購價格很有吸引力,扣除預期稅收優惠後,每千瓦容量的淨價約為 730 美元。我們預計,該交易將在 2027 年實現中等個位數的調整後自由現金流(不計每股收益增長),並在 2027 年至 2029 年期間平均實現高個位數的增長。我們期待在 2026 年完成交易,並歡迎新團隊成員加入 Vistra 大家庭。更廣泛地說,我們仍然相信天然氣發電將在美國電力市場提供可靠、價格合理和靈活的電力方面發揮關鍵作用。
Winter storm Fern reinforced this view. During the tightest hour, thermal generation accounted for approximately 93% of all power delivered to the ERCOT grid, once again demonstrated that when conditions are the most demanding, firm dispatchable resources (inaudible) upon much more than on a typical day. We've seen this story repeat itself time and again during Elliott, Mara, Heather and now Fern. Given this backdrop, we will continue to evaluate future inorganic opportunities that create value within our integrated model. Moving to Slide 8.
冬季風暴弗恩進一步印證了這一點。在電力供應最緊張的一小時,火力發電約佔輸送至 ERCOT 電網所有電力的 93%,再次證明,在條件最為苛刻時,可靠的可調度資源(聽不清楚)比平常發揮的作用要大得多。我們已經看到這樣的故事在 Elliott、Mara、Heather 和現在的 Fern 身上一次又一次地重演。在此背景下,我們將繼續評估未來能為我們一體化模式創造價值的非有機成長機會。切換到第 8 張投影片。
Our nuclear power purchase agreements represent a significant milestone not just for Vistra, but for the industry. We have now signed approximately 3.8 gigawatts of nuclear capacity, including uprates under long-term contracts, more than any other power company in the country. These agreements executed with two of the world's leading technology companies represent meaningful long-term commitments to the safe and reliable operation of nuclear power generation in the United States. The first agreement, which we announced in September last year is a 20-year contract with Amazon at our Comanche Peak nuclear plant in Texas. Under this agreement, Amazon will sign a facility on our property to utilize the 1,200 megawatts of capacity.
我們的核電購買協議不僅對Vistra公司而言是一個重要的里程碑,對整個產業也是如此。目前,我們已簽署約 3.8 吉瓦的核電裝置容量,包括長期合約下的增產項目,比國內任何其他電力公司都多。與兩家世界領先的技術公司簽署的這些協議,代表對美國核電安全可靠運作的有意義的長期承諾。我們去年 9 月宣布的第一項協議是與亞馬遜簽訂的為期 20 年的合同,合約內容涉及我們在德克薩斯州科曼奇峰的核電站。根據這項協議,亞馬遜將在我們的土地上建造一座設施,以利用 1200 兆瓦的發電容量。
Importantly, Amazon also plans to bring one for one backup generation, a structure we believe supports future expansion at the site while maintaining reliability across the system. Progress on the site continues to be made with initial energization still expected in the fourth quarter of 2027, and full ramp expected by the fourth quarter of 2032. The agreement also includes options to explore new nuclear development with a specific focus on possible uprates and small modular reactors. We are excited about this partnership and the long-term potential at the Comanche Peak site. Building on that momentum, in January of this year, we announced long-term power purchase agreements with Meta.
重要的是,亞馬遜還計劃採用一對一備份方案,我們認為這種結構既能支援該站點未來的擴展,又能保持整個系統的可靠性。該電廠的建設工作仍在繼續推進,預計將於 2027 年第四季開始初步投產,並於 2032 年第四季全面投產。該協議還包括探索新的核能發展方案,重點是可能的升級改造和小型模組化反應器。我們對此次合作以及科曼奇峰遺址的長期潛力感到興奮。乘著這股勢頭,今年 1 月,我們宣布與 Meta 簽訂長期購電協議。
The agreements which are also for 20 years, covered 2,176 megawatts of operating capacity from our Perry and Davis-Besse nuclear power plants, and an additional 433 megawatts of upgrade capacity from our Perry, (inaudible) and Beaver Valley power plants. We expect delivery of the operating capacity of Perry to commence in December of 2026, and (inaudible) in December 2027. Upgrade capacity remains longer dated with (inaudible) uprates expected to be online in the fourth quarter of 2031, with each subsequent year seeing an additional upgrade online until all 4 uprates are completed by the fourth quarter of 2034. From an operating perspective, the plants will continue to operate as they do today, with power flowing to the grid for the benefit of all customers. The financial impact from all of our nuclear PPAs is significant, providing the financial backing to operate these facilities for decades to come.
這些協議同樣為期 20 年,涵蓋了我們佩里和戴維斯-貝塞核電廠的 2,176 兆瓦運行容量,以及我們佩里(聽不清楚)和比弗谷發電廠的額外 433 兆瓦升級容量。我們預計 Perry 的營運能力將於 2026 年 12 月開始交付,(聽不清楚)將於 2027 年 12 月開始交付。升級能力仍處於較長時間的規劃階段,預計(聽不清楚)升級將於 2031 年第四季上線,此後每年都會有額外的升級上線,直到 2034 年第四季完成所有 4 次升級。從營運角度來看,這些電廠將繼續像現在一樣運行,電力輸送到電網,造福所有客戶。我們所有核電購電協議帶來的財務影響巨大,為這些設施未來幾十年的營運提供了資金支持。
And in the case of the PJM nuclear sites to apply for additional license renewals and extend site operations into the 2050 and 2060s. Upon achieving full ramp of all the nuclear agreements, we see a pathway to nearly 25% adjusted free cash flow before growth accretion on an annual basis. From a capital perspective, the Comanche Peak agreement will not require significant incremental spend from Vistra and the PJM agreements for operating capacity won't require any additional spend. The PJM nuclear uprates will require growth capital over an 8-year period with the majority of the spend occurring after 2028. We believe these investments represent attractive growth opportunities given the higher capacity, expected improvement in reliability and the enhancements that will allow an additional operational license extension, all while exceeding our mid-teens levered return requirements.
而 PJM 核電廠則申請額外的許可證續期,並將營運期限延長至 2050 年代和 2060 年代。在所有核能協議全面投產後,我們預計每年在成長之前,調整後的自由現金流將接近 25%。從資本角度來看,Comanche Peak 協議不會為 Vistra 帶來大量額外支出,而 PJM 營運能力協議也不會帶來任何額外支出。PJM 核電升級改造需要在 8 年內投入成長資金,其中大部分支出將在 2028 年後進行。我們認為,鑑於更高的產能、預期可靠性的提高以及將允許額外延長營運許可證的改進,這些投資代表著有吸引力的成長機會,同時還能超過我們十幾個百分點的槓桿回報率要求。
Taken together, these nuclear PPAs position Vistra to support reliable carbon-free power as demand continues to grow, while also increasing and extending the earnings profile of our company for the longer term. While these agreements are important for our company, we have more we can do. We still see an opportunity to contract up to an additional 3.2 gigawatts of nuclear capacity across our Beaver Valley and Comanche Peak sites, including potential upgrades of approximately 200 megawatts at Comanche Peak. Continuing with the theme of an enhanced and more predictable earnings profile, let's move to Slide 9. We continue to make meaningful progress in derisking our business, locking in higher levels of contracted revenue while at the same time growing our total earnings.
綜合來看,這些核電購電協議使 Vistra 能夠在需求持續成長的情況下支援可靠的無碳電力,同時還能提高和延長我們公司的長期獲利能力。雖然這些協議對我們公司很重要,但我們還可以做得更多。我們仍然看到有機會在我們的比佛谷和科曼奇峰核電廠新增高達 3.2 吉瓦的核電容量,其中包括科曼奇峰核電廠約 200 兆瓦的潛在升級。繼續探討提高和更可預測的收益狀況這個主題,讓我們來看第 9 張投影片。我們在降低業務風險方面持續取得實質進展,鎖定更高水準的合約收入,同時提高總收益。
It's important to emphasize this point, we are not trading growth for stability, we are achieving both. Our percentage of contracted wholesale will increase substantially and shift the earnings certainty longer term and more insulated from changes with tax policy. This is particularly noteworthy as the earnings profile of the business continues to grow significantly on an absolute basis as well. On a consolidated basis, based on the contracts signed to date, when combined with the reliable contribution from our retail business, we expect nearly half of our total adjusted EBITDA to be generated from highly stable earnings sources with the potential to increase this percentage as we execute on additional opportunities. This will be a meaningful shift in the composition of our earnings, reducing volatility, enhancing visibility and improving our credit profile.
需要強調的是,我們並非以成長換取穩定,而是兩者兼得。我們的合約批發業務比例將大幅增加,並將獲利確定性轉移到更長期的層面,並使其更能抵禦稅收政策的變化。尤其值得注意的是,該公司的獲利能力也持續大幅成長。從合併的角度來看,根據迄今為止簽署的合同,加上零售業務的可靠貢獻,我們預計近一半的調整後 EBITDA 將來自高度穩定的盈利來源,隨著我們抓住更多機會,這一比例還有可能提高。這將使我們的收益組成發生重大轉變,降低波動性,提高可見性,並改善我們的信用狀況。
We continue to pursue attractive arrangements to serve our customers given the accretion to our business on many levels. Finally, turning to Slide 10. Our 4 strategic priorities remain core to delivering long-term value. With our One Team approach, we've demonstrated superior execution on these priorities. The acquisitions of Energy Harbor, Lotus and (inaudible) have proven to be valuable through adherence to price discipline, best-in-class integration and enhancements of scale.
鑑於公司業務在多個層面的成長,我們將繼續尋求對客戶有吸引力的安排來服務客戶。最後,請看第 10 張投影片。我們的四大戰略重點仍是實現長期價值的核心。憑藉我們「一個團隊」的理念,我們在這些優先事項上展現了卓越的執行力。透過堅持價格紀律、一流的整合以及規模的擴大,對 Energy Harbor、Lotus 和(聽不清)的收購已被證明是有價值的。
Our measured approach to development has enabled us to generate attractive returns, whether through contracted renewables such as Oak Hill in Pulaski, or high-return thermal additions like our coal conversions, gas plant augmentations or Permian new build gas units. Turning to the balance sheet. Our prioritization of liquidity and low leverage has placed us in a strong financial position. Combined with the improved earnings profile of the company, we continue to expect leverage to decline, and have been pleased to see multiple rating agencies recognized our improved credit profile. While this chart highlights the last few years, I would like to spend a minute on the future and how the continued execution of our 4 key strategic priorities will unlock multiple growth opportunities in the years ahead.
我們採取穩健的發展方式,使我們能夠獲得可觀的回報,無論是透過簽訂合約的可再生能源項目,例如普拉斯基的橡樹山項目,還是透過高回報的熱能項目,例如我們的煤炭改造、天然氣發電廠擴建或二疊紀盆地新建天然氣裝置。接下來看一下資產負債表。我們優先考慮流動性和低槓桿率,這使我們處於穩健的財務狀況。結合公司獲利狀況的改善,我們繼續預期槓桿率會下降,並且很高興看到多家評級機構認可了我們信用狀況的改善。雖然這張圖表重點介紹了過去幾年的情況,但我想花一分鐘時間展望未來,以及我們持續執行的 4 項關鍵策略重點將如何在未來幾年釋放多種成長機會。
Our generation development teams will continue to pursue highly accretive capacity additions. We continue to advance our plans to convert our Miami Fort facility in Ohio from coal to gas. While our targeted 500 megawatts of augmentations at our Texas gas fleet are largely complete, the team continues to study options that are current PJM fleet, which could total approximately 300 megawatts. Further, the team remains hard at work reviewing new PJM plant additions, which would likely involve expanding existing sites. Contracting work also continues.
我們的發電開發團隊將繼續尋求高增值產能。我們正繼續推動將位於俄亥俄州邁阿密堡的工廠從燃煤改用瓦斯的計畫。雖然我們在德州天然氣發電廠實現的 500 兆瓦增容目標已基本完成,但團隊仍在研究 PJM 現有發電廠的增容方案,增容規模約為 300 兆瓦。此外,該團隊仍在努力審查 PJM 新增工廠的方案,這很可能涉及擴建現有廠址。承包工作也在持續進行。
As I already mentioned, we still see an approximately 3.2 gigawatts of opportunities at Beaver Valley and Comanche Peak that can be contracted on a long-term basis. On the thermal side, we continue to make progress in our discussions with customers on new and existing gas solutions. We will continue to provide updates as those opportunities materialize. Finally, our retail team continues to deliver novel products to customers to help them better manage their budget while meeting their power needs. The ability for customers to (inaudible) provider, their electric plan and ultimately have some control over their energy needs is a proven way to address the concerns related to affordability.
正如我之前提到的,我們在比佛谷和科曼奇峰仍然看到了大約 3.2 吉瓦的機會,可以簽訂長期合約。在熱能方面,我們與客戶就新的和現有的氣體解決方案進行的討論不斷取得進展。我們將持續關注並及時更新相關訊息,一旦這些機會出現,我們將立即通知大家。最後,我們的零售團隊不斷為顧客提供創新產品,幫助他們在滿足電力需求的同時更好地管理預算。讓客戶能夠(聽不清楚)選擇供應商、制定電力計劃並最終對自己的能源需求進行一定程度的控制,是解決與經濟承受能力相關的擔憂的有效方法。
No matter the product category, customers prefer having a choice. And our team is working hard to make sure that we are the preferred choice of customers from residential to industrial, including the hyperscalers. Ultimately, we believe the combination of these capabilities position Vistra to be the energy solutions provider to our customers by developing and delivering innovative strategies to meet our customers' needs in this growing demand environment. I'm excited about what our team has accomplished and what we can deliver in the years to come.
無論產品類別為何,顧客都喜歡有選擇權。我們的團隊正在努力確保我們成為從住宅用戶到工業用戶(包括超大規模用戶)的首選。最終,我們相信這些能力的結合將使 Vistra 能夠透過制定和實施創新策略來滿足客戶在不斷增長的需求環境中的需求,從而成為客戶的能源解決方案提供者。我對我們團隊的成就以及未來幾年我們能夠取得的成就感到興奮。
Now I'll turn it over to Kris to provide more details on the fourth quarter and full year results, outlook and capital allocation. Kris?
現在我將把發言權交給 Kris,讓他詳細介紹第四季和全年的業績、展望和資本配置。克里斯?
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Jim. Turning to Slide 12. Vistra delivered $5.912 billion in adjusted EBITDA for full year 2025, including $4.290 billion from generation and $1.622 billion from retail. The Generation segment continued to realize material benefits from our comprehensive hedge program. The strong realized revenue across the fleet and 2 months of contribution from the Lotus assets more than offset extended outages at Martin Lake Unit 1 and our Moss Landing battery facilities.
謝謝你,吉姆。翻到第12張投影片。Vistra 2025 年全年調整後 EBITDA 為 59.12 億美元,其中發電業務收入為 42.9 億美元,零售業務收入為 16.22 億美元。發電業務板塊繼續從我們全面的避險計畫中獲得實質收益。整個船隊的強勁實際收入以及 Lotus 資產兩個月的貢獻,足以彌補 Martin Lake 1 號機組和 Moss Landing 電池設施的長期停駛。
The retail segment continues to perform extremely well, benefiting from strong customer count and margin performance. Although the retail business continues to generate strong earnings in a variety of market conditions, 2025's record result was partly driven by some tailwinds that are not expected to repeat in the future, including some supply cost benefits and gains related to the Energy Harbor acquisition. Over the medium term, we continue to expect retail to achieve adjusted EBITDA in the neighborhood of approximately $1.4 billion. Turning to Slide 13. Based on our expectations for 2026 in our previously communicated range midpoint opportunities for 2027, as well as the expected contribution in 2026 and 2027 from the Meta PPAs, and the closing of the Cogentrix acquisition, we project to generate more than $10 billion of cash through year-end 2027.
零售業務持續表現優異,受益於強勁的客戶數量和利潤率。儘管零售業務在各種市場條件下繼續產生強勁的收益,但 2025 年創紀錄的業績部分得益於一些預計未來不會重現的利好因素,包括一些供應成本優勢和與收購 Energy Harbor 相關的收益。中期內,我們仍預期零售業務的調整後 EBITDA 將達到約 14 億美元。翻到第13張幻燈片。根據我們先前公佈的 2027 年中點機會中對 2026 年的預期,以及 Meta PPA 在 2026 年和 2027 年的預期貢獻,以及 Cogentrix 收購的完成,我們預計到 2027 年底將產生超過 100 億美元的現金。
Our confidence in our outlook and cash generation is supported by our comprehensive hedging program and the downside protection of the nuclear PTC, resulting in a highly hedged position over the coming years. Even after allocating approximately $3 billion to our equity holders through share repurchases and common and preferred dividends in 2026 and 2027, and approximately's $4 billion towards accretive growth investments, including the (inaudible) acquisition, the development of the Permian gas units, and the PJM nuclear upgrade supported by PPAs with Meta, we still expect to have more than $3 billion of additional capital available to allocate through year-end 2027, all while achieving an attractive net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of approximately 2.3x by year-end 2027. Although changes in power market fundamentals and customer preferences have expanded the growth opportunity set, the capital framework used to allocate this additional capital remains consistent. Balancing shareholder returns, a strong balance sheet and growth through strategic investments. Our share repurchase program continues to produce tremendous value.
我們對我們的前景和現金流充滿信心,這得益於我們全面的對沖計劃和核能生產稅收抵免的下行保護,從而在未來幾年內實現高度對沖。即使在 2026 年和 2027 年透過股票回購和普通股及優先股股息向股東分配了約 30 億美元,並向增值增長投資(包括(聽不清)收購、二疊紀天然氣裝置的開發以及由與 Meta 簽訂的購電協議支持的 PJM 核電升級)分配了約 40 億美元之後,我們預計到 20 億美元的資本仍有超過 200 億美元,仍有額外2027 年底實現約 2.3 倍的淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率。儘管電力市場基本面和客戶偏好的變化擴大了成長機會的範圍,但用於分配這些額外資本的資本框架仍然保持一致。透過策略投資,在股東回報、穩健的資產負債表和成長之間取得平衡。我們的股票回購計劃持續創造巨大價值。
Since initiating the program in November 2021, we have retired approximately 167 million shares at an average cost fuel of $36 per share, delivering over $20 billion of value for our long-term shareholders. We currently have approximately $1.8 billion of share repurchase authorization remaining, enough to meet our annual share repurchase target through 2027. We continue to believe share repurchases offer meaningful value to our shareholders, particularly in light of the recent deals we've announced, as our shares are trading at an attractive free cash flow yield relative to the average of the S&P 500. We expect our share repurchase program will continue to operate utilizing a 10b5-1 plan, allowing us to stay in the market even when in possession of material nonpublic information. While this plan allows us to remain consistent buyers of our shares.
自 2021 年 11 月啟動該計畫以來,我們已註銷約 1.67 億股股票,平均每股成本為 36 美元,為我們的長期股東創造了超過 200 億美元的價值。我們目前還有約 18 億美元的股票回購授權額度,足以滿足我們到 2027 年的年度股票回購目標。我們仍然相信股票回購能為我們的股東帶來有意義的價值,尤其是在我們最近宣布的交易之後,因為我們的股票相對於標普500指數的平均水平而言,具有有吸引力的自由現金流收益率。我們預計我們的股票回購計劃將繼續採用 10b5-1 計劃進行運作,即使我們掌握重大非公開信息,也能繼續留在市場中。該計劃使我們能夠繼續持續買入我們的股票。
We have designed it such that it accelerates repurchase amounts during times of market dislocation, including the recent share price weakness in January and February. Turning to the balance sheet. We continue to target leverage metrics consistent with investment-grade credit ratings. We believe the improvement in our net leverage levels, combined with the higher earnings visibility for more contracted earnings streams, could position us for additional ratings upgrades potentially as early as later this year. For strategic investments, we will continue to be opportunistic, yet disciplined in the deployment of capital.
我們設計的這款產品能夠在市場動盪時期加快回購速度,包括最近 1 月和 2 月的股價疲軟時期。接下來看一下資產負債表。我們將繼續以符合投資等級信用評等的槓桿指標為目標。我們相信,淨槓桿水準的改善,加上更多已簽訂合約的收入流的更高獲利可見性,可能會使我們在今年稍後獲得進一步的評級提升。對於策略性投資,我們將繼續抓住機遇,但同時在資本部署方面保持謹慎。
We haven't wavered on our target return threshold, whether for organic or inorganic growth investments, which remains mid-teens or higher on a levered basis. Finally, moving to Slide 14. We are in the early stages of a multiyear execution plan, driving a sustainably higher level of earnings power for our long-term shareholders. You can see on the chart, based on forward curves as of February 20, and a stable share count as of December 31, we continue to see adjusted free cash flow before growth per share to exceed $12.5 for 2026. Given additional actions taken to date, including the Cogentrix acquisition, and other power purchase agreements, together with a simplifying assumption with respect to the deployment of our cash available for allocation through 2027 to share repurchases, we project adjusted free cash flow before growth per share to increase to approximately $16.
我們對目標回報門檻沒有絲毫動搖,無論是有機成長還是無機成長投資,槓桿基礎上的回報門檻仍然是十幾個百分點或更高。最後,轉到第 14 張投影片。我們正處於一項多年執行計劃的早期階段,該計劃旨在為我們的長期股東帶來可持續的更高盈利能力。從圖表中可以看出,根據截至 2 月 20 日的遠期曲線和截至 12 月 31 日的穩定股本數量,我們預計 2026 年每股調整後自由現金流(增長前)將超過 12.5 美元。鑑於迄今為止採取的其他行動,包括收購 Cogentrix 和其他購電協議,以及對 2027 年前可用於股票回購的現金部署的簡化假設,我們預計調整後的每股自由現金流(增長前)將增加至約 16 美元。
Other actions such as the PPA with Amazon and the uprate supported by contracts with Meta won't contribute to our free cash flow until further into the future, but will be meaningful sources of increased contracted earnings. Over the long term, we believe these transactions, as well as the roll-off of out-of-the-money hedges, will result in a meaningful step-up in our adjusted free cash flow before growth per share. Despite already delivering on multiple key initiatives, we still have numerous opportunities to further grow and stabilize our business. We see heightened engagement from our customer base across a range of additional opportunities, and we remain confident in our differentiated ability to meet our customers' needs, and continue to increase our adjusted free cash flow before growth per share. Of course, share repurchases and balance sheet management will continue to be an important component of our capital allocation framework.
其他舉措,例如與亞馬遜的購電協議 (PPA) 以及與 Meta 簽訂的合約所支持的提價,雖然在未來一段時間內不會對我們的自由現金流做出貢獻,但將成為增加合約收益的重要來源。從長遠來看,我們相信這些交易以及價外對沖的到期將使我們每股成長前的調整後自由現金流顯著增加。儘管我們已經實現了多項關鍵舉措,但我們仍然有很多機會進一步發展和穩定我們的業務。我們看到客戶群對一系列新機會的參與度不斷提高,我們仍然對我們滿足客戶需求的差異化能力充滿信心,並將繼續提高每股成長前的調整後自由現金流。當然,股票回購和資產負債表管理仍將是我們資本配置架構的重要組成部分。
I will now turn the call back to Jim for his closing remarks.
現在我將把電話轉回給吉姆,請他作總結發言。
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Burke - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Kris. 2025 was a record year for Vistra, reflecting strong execution across the business and continued progress against our long-term strategy. Our improving growth trajectory supported by an increasing level of contracted revenue provides greater confidence in our future cash flows. We enter the next phase of growth with a diversified reliable fleet, a strong balance sheet and a customer focus that positions us well to meet rising demand across our markets. We remain disciplined in how we allocate capital applying a consistent framework that balances growth, shareholder returns and financial strength.
謝謝你,克里斯。 2025年是Vistra創紀錄的一年,這反映了公司各部門的強有力執行力以及我們在長期策略方面的持續進展。不斷改善的成長軌跡,加上合約收入的持續成長,使我們對未來的現金流更有信心。我們憑藉著多元化、可靠的車隊、強勁的資產負債表和以客戶為中心的理念,進入了下一個成長階段,這使我們能夠更好地滿足各個市場不斷增長的需求。我們在資本配置方面始終保持嚴謹的態度,採用一致的框架來平衡成長、股東回報和財務實力。
I want to thank our team for their tremendous efforts to deliver value day in and day out for our customers, our communities and our shareholders. One last thing. I regret that I will be unable to participate in the live Q&A portion due to an unforeseen personal matter. But I am proud to share these remarks given the team's hard work and the company's strong performance in 2025, as well as the fast start out of the blocks in 2026. You are no doubt in good hands as my team, whom you know well, including Kris, Stacy Dore, Scott Hudson and Sean Stucki will address any questions that you may have.
我要感謝我們的團隊,感謝他們日復一日地為我們的客戶、社群和股東創造價值所付出的巨大努力。最後還有一件事。很遺憾,由於突發的個人原因,我將無法參加現場問答環節。但鑑於團隊的辛勤工作和公司在 2025 年的強勁表現,以及 2026 年的快速開局,我很自豪地分享這些看法。毫無疑問,您找對了我的團隊,您很熟悉他們,包括 Kris、Stacy Dore、Scott Hudson 和 Sean Stucki,他們會解答您可能提出的任何問題。
I look forward to connecting with many of you in the coming days and weeks.
我期待在接下來的幾天和幾週內與大家聯繫。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Shar Pourreza, Wells Fargo.
(操作員指示)Shar Pourreza,富國銀行。
Shahriar Pourreza - Equity Analyst
Shahriar Pourreza - Equity Analyst
Just maybe starting off on PJM. Did the rule changes impact the meta deal if PJM changes how new load gets treated? I guess, could there be kind of incremental cost for Meta? And if PJM tariff changes, is that sort of could be a net positive for additional load contracting like with Viva Valleys we're thinking about future announcements. So have you seen any impact around future discussions while the rule changes are up in the air? It's a little bit of a 2-part question.
或許可以先從 PJM 開始。如果 PJM 改變了新負載的處理方式,這些規則變更是否會影響元交易?我想,Meta會不會有一些額外的成本?如果 PJM 電價發生變化,這可能會對像 Viva Valleys 這樣的額外負載合約產生淨正面影響,我們正在考慮未來發布相關公告。在規則變更尚未確定期間,您是否看到這對未來的討論有任何影響?這是一個包含兩個部分的問題。
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Shar, this is Stacey. Thanks for the question. The PJM activity, of course, as you know, is very high. There are many moving pieces of the puzzle in PJM right now. We do not believe that any of the current activity affects our meta deal.
Shar,我是Stacey。謝謝你的提問。當然,正如您所知,PJM 活動非常活躍。PJM目前有很多變數。我們認為目前的任何活動都不會影響我們的元交易。
That deal is more akin to a typical front-of-the-meter deal. It's not tied to co-location, or to any particular load. So we don't believe any of the PJM activity affects that deal. As I've mentioned, there is a lot going on in PJM right now, and of course, all customers and stakeholders are watching the activity closely. We expect PJM to file any time now an extension of the existing price collar for the next 2 auctions just this week.
這種交易更像是典型的電錶前付費交易。它與託管或任何特定負載無關。因此,我們認為PJM的任何活動都不會影響這筆交易。正如我之前提到的,PJM 目前有很多事情正在發生,當然,所有客戶和利害關係人都在密切關注這些動態。我們預計PJM隨時可能提交申請,延長本週接下來兩場拍賣的現有價格區間。
PJM did make a filing regarding specific tariff provisions applicable to colocation arrangements. We do think that getting clarity on the colocation tariff provisions will be helpful to the discussions that we continue to have about Beaver Valley and other colocation opportunities. Of course, we're also watching the reliability backstop auction filing that we expect PJM to make in the coming months. PJM is also working on load forecasting improvements and expedited interconnection track for new generation, and in the longer term, possibly additional capacity market reforms. We're actively participating in all of these proceedings.
PJM確實提交了一份關於適用於託管安排的具體資費規定的文件。我們認為,明確託管收費條款將有助於我們繼續討論比佛谷和其他託管機會。當然,我們也關注 PJM 預計在未來幾個月內提交的可靠性保障拍賣文件。PJM 也正在努力改善負載預測,加快新發電的互聯進程,從長遠來看,可能還會進行額外的容量市場改革。我們積極參與所有這些程序。
And at the last open meeting, FERC commissioners made clear that they are also paying close attention to these activities and they are ready to rule on these various proposals, all of which will continue to provide more clarity and investment certainty in PJM. It's too early to tell what will become of all of these proceedings, including the tariff proceedings around colocation that I think you're asking about. But we view the overall backdrop as positive because the administration, the state governments, as well as most PJM stakeholders are rightly focused on the same objectives we're focused on, which are getting large loads connected quickly, and that includes support from FERC and White House for co-location with existing generation, properly allocating costs across load classes and doing what's necessary to incentivize an appropriate amount of new build. And finally, avoiding unnecessary disruption to our existing market and existing resources. These are all the right goals to focus on.
在上次公開會議上,聯邦能源監管委員會委員們明確表示,他們也密切關注這些活動,並準備對這些不同的提案作出裁決,所有這些提案都將繼續為PJM提供更大的清晰度和投資確定性。現在判斷所有這些訴訟程序最終結果如何還為時過早,包括我想你正在詢問的關於託管服務的關稅訴訟程序。但我們認為整體情況是積極的,因為政府、州政府以及大多數 PJM 利益相關者都正確地關注著與我們相同的目標,即快速連接大負荷,這包括聯邦能源監管委員會和白宮對與現有發電設施共址的支持,在負荷等級之間合理分配成本,以及採取必要措施激勵適量的新建項目。最後,避免對我們現有的市場和現有資源造成不必要的干擾。這些都是應該重點關注的正確目標。
We share those goals. But of course, the details will matter. And we'll stay engaged on all of those proceedings to advocate for Vistra's interest. So we do think at the end of the day, the continuing clarity and transparency around some of these upcoming rule changes will facilitate getting a deal done at Beaver Valley and possibly other colocation deals in PJM, and we continue to see a very high level of interest in Beaver Valley in particular. Pennsylvania, is a market that the hyperscalers continue to focus on, and we think that site is very attractive for either co-location, or a front of the meter deal we could do either one at Beaver Valley.
我們擁有共同的目標。當然,細節很重要。我們將繼續參與所有這些訴訟程序,以維護Vistra的利益。因此,我們認為,最終,圍繞這些即將出台的規則變更的持續清晰性和透明度將有助於在 Beaver Valley 達成交易,並可能促成 PJM 的其他託管交易,而且我們繼續看到人們對 Beaver Valley 表現出非常高的興趣。賓州是超大規模資料中心營運商持續關注的市場,我們認為該地點對於託管或前端計量交易都非常有吸引力,我們可以在比佛谷完成這兩項交易。
Shahriar Pourreza - Equity Analyst
Shahriar Pourreza - Equity Analyst
Got it. And then just lastly, as we're looking at the next leg of contracting opportunities, do you sort of have a view around hyperscaler appetite around gas risk. I mean, is there a preferred structure for Vistra for existing or new build assets in terms of contract structure. (inaudible) presented sort of this viewpoint around a fixed capacity plus a e-way call type of arrangement. So curious to see if that's a preferred path for the strategy you guys are thinking about contracting gas?
知道了。最後,當我們展望下一階段的合約機會時,您對超大規模資料中心營運商對天然氣風險的接受程度有何看法?我的意思是,對於Vistra而言,無論是現有資產還是新建資產,在合約結構方面是否存在一種偏好的結構? (聽不清楚)提出了一種基於固定容量加上電子呼叫機制的觀點。我很想知道,對於你們正在考慮的天然氣合約策略來說,這是否是首選方案?
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Yes. Thanks, Shar. Stacey, again here. So we do think that hyperscalers will contract for new gas build going forward. We are engaged in a number of those conversations as well.
是的。謝謝你,莎爾。又是斯黛西。因此,我們認為超大規模資料中心未來將會減少對新 Gas 建置的需求。我們也參與了許多類似的對話。
And we agree that we think the customers will ultimately take the gas risk there, which we're well positioned to help them manage as well. And so I think the kind of structure you're talking out with a large fixed capacity payment along with a variable component that includes gas risk is a structure that we see a lot of customer interest in. Those deals take time. Frankly, new construction takes time. And so we continue to focus on those, but to focus at the same time on the advantage that Vistra has in offering speed to market with so many of our existing sites being available to help to get a data center online.
我們一致認為,最終天然氣風險將由客戶承擔,而我們有能力幫助他們管理這些風險。因此,我認為您所說的這種結構,即支付一大筆固定費用,外加包含天然氣風險在內的可變部分,正是我們看到許多客戶感興趣的結構。這些交易需要時間。坦白說,新建工程需要時間。因此,我們將繼續專注於這些方面,但同時也要專注於 Vistra 的優勢,即憑藉我們現有的眾多站點,能夠幫助客戶快速將資料中心上線,從而加快市場進入速度。
So we continue to have a high level of interest from customers on all of these different arrangements including colocation with existing new build, colocation with nuclear (inaudible) as well. and renewables, PPAs, bridge power solutions and front-of-the-meter retail deals. I think Vistra is uniquely positioned with our large fleet of dispatchable assets and our leading retail commercial and regulatory capabilities to serve these customer needs creatively and reliably. So we remain very excited about the numerous opportunities ahead of us to enter into more contracts with our largest customers.
因此,客戶對所有這些不同的安排都表現出了濃厚的興趣,包括與現有新建項目共址、與核能(聽不清楚)和可再生能源共址、購電協議、過渡電力解決方案以及電錶前零售交易。我認為,Vistra 擁有龐大的可調度資產車隊以及領先的零售商業和監管能力,因此在滿足這些客戶需求方面具有獨特的優勢,能夠以創新和可靠的方式滿足客戶需求。因此,我們對未來與最大客戶簽訂更多合約的眾多機會感到非常興奮。
Operator
Operator
Angie Storozynski, Seaport.
安吉·斯托羅津斯基,海港。
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
So first of all, thank you for showing us longer-term projections of free cash flow per share. I know I've been asking for them for quite some time. So I really, really appreciate it. And hopefully, we will have more of those projections to come in the future. But my main question is about this sort of debate about contracting of existing assets versus bring your own generation requirements.
首先,感謝您向我們展示了每股自由現金流的長期預測。我知道我提要求這件事已經很久了。所以我真的非常非常感激。希望未來我們能看到更多這樣的預測。但我的主要問題是關於現有資產的承包與自備發電需求之間的這種爭論。
We are waiting, obviously, for those commitments from hyperscalers to be made about how they're going to power their data center load. And so just wondering how you see that requirement, or that push vis-a-vis your large and growing generation portfolio? And then secondly, I'm just wondering, in PJM gas-fired new build, how you think -- you see the demand for long term contract for gas fired new build ahead of this RBA, if you see any interest to contract for gas (inaudible) new build outside of the RBA?
顯然,我們正在等待超大規模資料中心營運商就如何滿足其資料中心負載需求做出承諾。所以我想知道您如何看待這項要求,或者說,這項推動力對您龐大且不斷成長的發電組合有何影響?其次,我想問一下,在PJM燃氣新建專案中,您認為—在這次RBA之前,您對燃氣新建專案的長期合約需求如何?您是否認為在RBA之外,對瓦斯(聽不清楚)新建專案有任何合約意圖?
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Yes. Angie, thank you. This is Stacey. So on your first question around contracting existing versus new build. I mean, I think obviously, two large deals that we've announced at Comanche Peak and also across our PJM nuclear fleet are both deals that involve contracting with existing assets.
是的。安吉,謝謝你。這是斯黛西。那麼,關於你提出的第一個問題,即現有建築與新建築的承包方式。我的意思是,很明顯,我們在科曼奇峰和整個 PJM 核電廠宣布的兩項大型交易都是與現有資產簽訂合約的交易。
So we've demonstrated that the hyperscaler interest is high with respect to that. And I think the Meta deal, in particular, is a very thoughtful approach where they are taking existing -- purchasing existing offtake and also supporting the nuclear upgrades. And then at Comanche Peak, we're able to offer a speed-to-market solution for Amazon there. So I think those deals, which were both fairly recent, demonstrate the interest by hyperscalers and contracting with existing assets. And we continue to have a number of conversations around other existing assets, including, as I mentioned, Beaver Valley, but also gas plants as well.
因此,我們已經證明,超大規模資料中心營運商對此非常感興趣。我認為 Meta 的交易尤其體現了一種深思熟慮的做法,他們既購買了現有的電力承購權,也支持了核能升級。然後,在科曼奇峰,我們能夠為亞馬遜提供快速上市的解決方案。所以我認為,這兩筆交易(都是最近達成的)顯示了超大規模資料中心營運商對收購現有資產的興趣。我們仍在就其他現有資產進行多次討論,包括我提到的比弗谷,以及天然氣發電廠。
There is a constraint around some of those existing asset deals, and that is the interconnection process which you still have to go through when you're contracting if you're locating your existing asset, if you're locating the data center there. So obviously, we continue to work on a number of fronts in the ongoing regulatory processes for interconnection. And I think most markets are trying to move those processes forward, recognizing that we need to get customers connected. So I think you will continue to see a lot of interest in both. I do think colocation with existing assets continues to offer a speed advantage versus new build.
現有的一些資產交易存在著一個限制,那就是互連流程。如果您要將現有資產或資料中心安置在那裡,那麼在簽訂合約時您仍然需要經歷該流程。顯然,我們將繼續在互聯互通的監管進程中,在多個方面開展工作。我認為大多數市場都在努力推動這些進程,並意識到我們需要讓客戶建立聯繫。所以我認為你會看到大家對這兩者持續保持濃厚的興趣。我認為,與新建伺服器相比,利用現有資產進行託管仍然具有速度優勢。
But you'll see a combination of all of those solutions, and we're in all of those types of conversations with hyperscalers and others. Regarding your question around PJM new build. I do think that given that there -- it appears that PJM is targeting a reliability backstop auction as early as this September that will feed into the conversations around new build in PJM in terms of customers trying to figure out whether it would be better to participate in RBA, or to bilaterally contract outside of the RBA. But the good news is that those rules will become clear in fairly short order, and it has not slowed the actual commercial conversations. Those continue in parallel about all sorts of new build options.
但你會看到所有這些解決方案的結合,我們正在與超大規模資料中心營運商和其他公司進行所有這些類型的對話。關於您提出的有關 PJM 新建專案的問題。我認為,有鑑於此,PJM 似乎計劃最早於今年 9 月舉行可靠性保障拍賣,這將有助於 PJM 的新建設項目討論,因為客戶正在努力弄清楚參與 RBA 是否更好,還是在 RBA 之外進行雙邊合約更好。但好消息是,這些規則很快就會明朗,而且並沒有減緩實際的商業對話。這些討論仍在並行進行,涉及各種新的建造方案。
But I do think the whole market is looking for clarity around the reliability back auction rules and as you can probably see from a lot of the information that's been published about the PJM RBA discussions. We are heavily engaged and have submitted our own proposal in that regard.
但我認為整個市場都在尋求有關可靠性回購拍賣規則的明確性,正如你可能從已發布的有關 PJM RBA 討論的大量信息中看到的那樣。我們已積極參與其中,並提交了我們自己的提案。
Operator
Operator
Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet,摩根大通。
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Sending our best to Jim here. Just want to start off with regards to the 2027 midpoint opportunity. I grant that this isn't something that you normally change, but they seem like some pretty big developments here recently. So why not include the Meta opportunity here? And also, post the near-term potential of $16 per share, just wondering if you might be able to provide order of magnitude of some of the further upside drivers there?
向吉姆致以我們最誠摯的問候。首先我想談談 2027 年的中點機會。我承認這通常不是需要改變的事情,但最近這裡似乎發生了一些相當大的變化。那為什麼不把 Meta 的機會也考慮進來呢?另外,考慮到近期每股潛在價格為 16 美元,我想知道您能否提供一些未來上漲驅動因素的數量級?
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. Thanks, Jeremy. I think we've said previously, and you mentioned it that we don't expect to update our guidance or midpoint opportunities on a quarterly basis. But of course, as you noted, we did announce two very significant transactions with the Cogentrix and Meta transactions since we last provided 2026 guidance and the 2027 midpoint opportunity. I think -- we didn't want to really update -- I think our view is once the Cogentrix deal closes, we'll update both.
是的。謝謝你,傑瑞米。我想我們之前說過,你也提到過,我們不打算按季度更新我們的業績指引或中期目標。當然,正如您所指出的,自從我們上次提供 2026 年業績指引和 2027 年中期業績展望以來,我們確實宣布了兩項非常重要的交易,即 Cogentrix 和 Meta 交易。我認為——我們原本不想真正更新——我認為我們的想法是,一旦 Cogentrix 交易完成,我們將同時更新兩者。
I mean we do -- we have mentioned that we expect Cogentrix to close and in the second half of this year. And so there's a -- depending on the timing of that closing, we would be updating 2026 guidance at that time. And our belief is -- that's just the right time for us to go ahead and update both 2026 guidance in the 2027 midpoint opportunity. The other thing that I'll say is we put out a lot of disclosure about these transactions. I think with the disclosure we've put out, you could get to a -- I think, pretty easily to addition to 2027 from just those transactions in the neighborhood of $700 million to $750 million.
我的意思是,我們確實提到過,我們預計 Cogentrix 將在今年下半年關閉。因此,根據交易完成的時間,我們將在那時更新 2026 年的業績指引。我們認為,現在正是我們更新 2026 年業績指引,把握 2027 年中期機會的最佳時機。我還要補充一點,我們對這些交易進行了大量的資訊揭露。我認為,根據我們披露的信息,到 2027 年,光是這些交易就能輕鬆增加 7 億至 7.5 億美元的收入。
Now that is absent any other impacts, including curve changes, other things. So again, it's hard to just add that on top. We'd have to roll everything forward. But -- and that amount also you have to remember, it includes the full year impact of only one of the assets from Meta and that will -- which will begin into late 2026. So it will be a full contributor in 2027, whereas the second contract begins in late 2027.
以上內容不包括其他任何影響因素,例如曲線變化等。所以,很難再在此基礎上添加其他東西。我們必須把所有事情都向前推進。但是——而且你還要記住,這個金額只包括 Meta 旗下某項資產全年的影響,而這——將持續到 2026 年底。因此,它將於 2027 年成為正式貢獻者,而第二份合約將於 2027 年底開始。
So I think it will -- we will update as we move along with the (inaudible) transaction. As per the $16, I think it's important to talk about what that is and what it isn't. We show a 2026 adjusted free cash flow per share amount, but that's just simply using our original guidance. It doesn't include Cogentrix, and it doesn't include any share repurchases. We're holding shares flat for even 2026.
所以我認為會的——我們會隨著(聽不清楚的)交易的進行而更新資訊。至於16美元,我認為有必要談談它是什麼,不是什麼。我們展示了 2026 年調整後的每股自由現金流金額,但這只是簡單地使用了我們最初的指導意見。它不包括 Cogentrix,也不包括任何股票回購。我們預計到 2026 年股票價格將保持不變。
And as you're aware, we're already buying shares. So what we showed is, I think, a conservative number for 2026, but we wanted to show the growth of transactions that we've already announced. And again, those are from Cogentrix excluding the tax benefits, just what we think that's separate. We haven't included those. And from operating PPAs with Meta.
如您所知,我們已經在購買股票了。所以,我認為我們展示的這個數字對於 2026 年來說是一個保守的數字,但我們想展示我們已經宣布的交易增長。再次強調,這些數據來自 Cogentrix,不包括稅收優惠,我們認為這是單獨計算的。我們沒有把這些也包括進去。以及透過 Meta 運營 PPA。
We did make a simplifying assumption because we are going to be buying in that indicative number. The $2 billion will be using the $2 billion that's already set aside for share repurchases, but we made a simplifying assumption of an additional $3 billion. So that's not a projection, or there's no time around that. That's a short-term number. If we think about going forward, to your question on where this could go, we're showing some of the tailwinds, which would be the hedge roll-off and -- as well as other -- the PJM nuclear operates.
我們做了一個簡化的假設,因為我們將以該參考數字買入。這 20 億美元將使用已預留用於股票回購的 20 億美元,但為了簡化起見,我們假設額外投入 30 億美元。所以這不是預測,或者說根本沒有時間限制。這是一個短期數據。如果我們考慮未來發展方向,對於你提出的「未來發展方向」的問題,我們展示了一些有利因素,例如對沖基金的到期退出,以及其他因素,例如 PJM 核電廠的運作。
But if we do look at just as we go forward and we look at our cash available for allocation moving forward. And if we made a simplifying assumption that we used all of that cash for share repurchases between 2026 and 2030 of what we think we can generate. And we use it at a price per share that's reasonably above where we trade today. I do think that the free cash flow per share could be -- would be in the range of $22 to $25, and that doesn't include some upside that we would look for transactions that are more accretive than share repurchases.
但如果我們展望未來,看看我們未來可用於分配的現金。如果我們做出一個簡化的假設,即在 2026 年至 2030 年期間,我們將所有現金用於回購我們認為能夠產生的股票。而且我們以遠高於目前交易價格的每股價格使用它。我認為每股自由現金流可能在 22 美元到 25 美元之間,而且這還不包括我們會尋找比股票回購更具增值性的交易所帶來的潛在收益。
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Got it. That free cash flow per share was 60% conversion points to a pretty big EBITDA number there. So that's very helpful. And just wanted to take a step back. You've talked a lot about the long-term PPA discussions here.
知道了。每股自由現金流可轉換為相當可觀的 EBITDA 值 60%。那很有幫助。只想退後一步。您在這裡談了很多關於長期購電協議(PPA)的討論。
But just at a very high level, how would you categorize the level of discussion now versus any point in the past? And just any qualification, I guess, between nuclear versus gas discussions here?
但從宏觀層面來看,您如何評價當前討論的水平與過去任何時期相比有何不同?那麼,關於核能和天然氣之間的討論,有什麼需要特別說明的地方嗎?
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
This is Stacey. Thank you for that question. We continue to see a very high level of interest in power PPAs for data centers. We really see 2026 as the year in which customers are focusing on what is real and what is credible, after spending the last couple of years sorting through a lot of different alternatives. And we think that really gives Vistra an advantage because we do have so many sites.
這是斯黛西。謝謝你的提問。我們持續看到各方對資料中心電力購買協議 (PPA) 表現出極高的興趣。我們認為,在經歷了過去幾年對各種不同選擇進行篩選之後,2026 年將是客戶更加關注真實性和可信度的一年。我們認為這確實為Vistra帶來了優勢,因為我們擁有很多網站。
We have so much land available, and we have a demonstrated capability of developing an operating generation. Our deal with Meta is a great example of that combines the purchase of operating capacity with financial support for new megawatts across our PJM nuclear fleet. And so we continue to be in numerous conversations with all of the major customers in this space about all of the various structures that we've been talking about. And I think we've shown -- we've demonstrated a real ability to execute not just on PPAs, but as a reminder, we've augmented our ERCOT thermal fleet by 500 megawatts of uprates. We've executed on the Oak Hill solar PPA last year with Amazon, as well as Pulaski with Microsoft.
我們擁有大量可用土地,並且我們已經證明了開發營運發電項目的能力。我們與 Meta 達成的協議就是一個很好的例子,它將購買營運能力與為我們 PJM 核電廠新增兆瓦容量提供財政支援結合起來。因此,我們繼續與該領域的所有主要客戶就我們一直在討論的各種結構進行多次對話。我認為我們已經證明——我們已經展現了真正的執行能力,不僅體現在購電協議 (PPA) 上,而且需要提醒的是,我們還透過升級改造,將 ERCOT 的熱電廠容量增加了 500 兆瓦。去年我們與亞馬遜完成了 Oak Hill 太陽能購電協議,並與微軟完成了 Pulaski 太陽能購電協議。
So we have those existing customer relationships, and I think we're viewed as a credible and viable partner for these customers. We've also -- we have in process not only the 433 megawatts of nuclear uprates, but two coal to gas conversions at Miami Fort and Coleto Creek, as well as our Permian gas plants that we're building in West Texas. If you add all of this up between what we've already added to the grid, and what is currently underway in a construction and under development, it's over 3,600 megawatts of capacity. And that's just the beginning that if we have customer PPAs for building new generation or for our existing assets, we will continue on that trajectory. So I think we see the appetite as high as ever, but the difference now versus maybe a year ago is I think the customers themselves are very focused on the deals and the opportunities that are actionable as they have sorted through what is real and what is credible, and we think that positions Vistra extremely well to support these customers.
因此,我們與客戶建立了良好的關係,我認為我們被這些客戶視為可靠且可行的合作夥伴。我們目前不僅正在進行 433 兆瓦的核電升級改造,還在邁阿密堡和科萊托溪進行兩座煤改氣的電廠改造,以及在西德克薩斯州建設的二疊紀天然氣發電廠。如果把我們已經併入電網的容量,以及目前正在建造和開發中的容量加起來,總容量超過 3600 兆瓦。而這只是個開始,如果我們有客戶為建設新發電設施或現有資產簽訂購電協議,我們將繼續沿著這條道路前進。所以我認為我們看到市場需求仍然很高,但與一年前相比,現在的不同之處在於,我認為客戶本身非常關注可操作的交易和機會,因為他們已經篩選出了哪些是真實的、哪些是可信的,我們認為這使 Vistra 能夠更好地支持這些客戶。
Operator
Operator
Steve Fleishman, Wolfe Research.
史蒂夫‧弗萊什曼,沃爾夫研究公司。
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
I guess, Stacey, first, on the on the idea of the new build you've already done, but also further opportunities there. Just how do you feel about your equipment and (inaudible) capability to meet needs not too far out. A lot of other people talk about, they're being well positioned there. Maybe you could just talk to that?
我想,Stacey,首先,關於你已經完成的新建築的想法,以及那裡的進一步機會。您對貴公司的設備以及(聽不清楚)滿足近期需求的能力有何感想?很多人都在談論,他們在那裡佔據了有利位置。或許你可以跟它聊聊?
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Yes. Steve, sure. Happy to do that. So as you know, we have one of the largest gas fleets in the country. We have excellent and long-standing relationships with all of the turbine OEMs, and we're frequently in conversations with third parties and bridge power providers.
是的。史蒂夫,當然可以。我很樂意這樣做。如您所知,我們擁有全國最大的天然氣車隊之一。我們與所有渦輪機原始設備製造商都保持著良好且長期的合作關係,我們經常與第三方和過渡電力供應商進行溝通。
About equipment that, frankly, they are trying to market, including parties that have already purchased turbines and are looking for places to deploy them. Because of our pre-existing development pipeline, we also have ample access to high-voltage equipment, and we have long-tenured relationships with multiple EPC providers that we are currently using for our development projects. So we do not see equipment or EPC as the gating items to building new generation, or to developing behind-the-meter interconnections for existing sites. Customers have choices. And when they're ready to sign PPAs projects can move forward.
坦白說,他們正在努力推銷一些設備,包括一些已經購買了渦輪機並正在尋找部署地點的公司。由於我們已有的開發項目,我們也能獲得充足的高壓設備,並且與多家EPC供應商建立了長期合作關係,目前我們正在使用這些供應商進行開發項目。因此,我們並不認為設備或EPC是建造新發電設施或為現有站點開發表後互連的門檻。顧客有選擇權。當他們準備簽署購電協議時,專案就可以推進了。
Vistra is certainly prepared to do that and can offer a variety of both speed to power options, as well as long-term new build.
Vistra 完全有能力做到這一點,並可提供各種速度和動力選擇,以及長期的新建造服務。
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Steve Fleishman - Analyst
Great. And then totally separate question for Kris. Just -- as your -- the free cash flow per share that was very helpful, and it looks like you're going to be on '27, the balance sheet, is very strong. But the EBITDA with some of these -- a lot of the drivers really show up after '27 and the EBITDA should be going up a lot, which probably leaves a lot more balance sheet room. So could you just talk to, kind of, how you're thinking about balance sheet targets beyond '27?
偉大的。然後,還有一個完全不同的問題要問克里斯。正如您所說,每股自由現金流非常有幫助,而且看起來您將在 2027 年實現資產負債表的強勁增長。但其中一些公司的 EBITDA——許多驅動因素在 2027 年後才會真正顯現,EBITDA 應該會大幅成長,這可能會為資產負債表留下更大的空間。那麼,您能否談談您對 2027 年以後的資產負債表目標有何想法?
And then what are you going to do with the cash?
然後你打算怎麼處理這筆錢?
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, Steve, thanks for the question. I think as we showed on the cap available for allocation chart, we have $3 billion between now and 2027, and that's even at 2.3x. And that level would be strong and we think would be strong in consideration for strong investment-grade ratings. So yes, as we said, I mean, there's a -- as we move forward, we expect the cash generation to be significant. And we're going to continue to stay balanced with capital allocation.
是的,史蒂夫,謝謝你的提問。我認為,正如我們在可供分配資金上限圖表中所示,從現在到2027年,我們有30億美元的資金,即使以2.3倍的市盈率計算也是如此。我們認為,考慮到獲得強勁的投資級評級,這個水準將非常可觀。所以,正如我們所說,我的意思是,隨著我們不斷前進,我們預計現金流將非常可觀。我們將繼續保持資本配置的平衡。
We're going to continue to return capital to shareholders and take advantage of opportunities. Again, when our stock is under pressure. We're going to continue to maintain the balance sheet. We are focused on investment-grade ratings. And as we continue to say, we don't want to be right on the edge of investment-grade ratings.
我們將繼續向股東返還資本,並抓住機會。再次,當我們的股票面臨壓力時。我們將繼續保持資產負債表的穩定。我們專注於投資等級評級。正如我們一直強調的,我們不想勉強達到投資等級。
We would like to get to that strong investment-grade ratings, but I think we can get there without a lot of debt pay down, and we're just -- we can do that with some growth. And then obviously, we're going to continue to look for inorganic and organic growth opportunities, but staying disciplined to our return thresholds. And that hasn't changed in the last several years, and it won't change going forward. And it's not always easy to find growth opportunities that meet our return thresholds, and you don't know when they'll come along. But we're consistently -- we have a lot of things in front of us, a lot of organic opportunities.
我們希望達到強勁的投資等級評級,但我認為我們可以在不償還大量債務的情況下實現這一目標,而且我們只需保持一定的成長就能做到這一點。顯然,我們將繼續尋找無機和有機成長機會,但會嚴格遵守我們的回報門檻。過去幾年情況沒有改變,將來也不會改變。而且,找到符合我們回報標準的成長機會並不總是那麼容易,你也不知道它們何時會出現。但我們始終——我們面前有很多事情要做,有很多自然而然的機會。
And so we'll continue to evaluate those. In the meantime, we can always pay down some additional debt and be ready for when those opportunities arise.
因此,我們將繼續評估這些因素。同時,我們也可以償還一些額外的債務,為機會出現時做好準備。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Weisel, Scotiabank.
安德魯‧韋塞爾,加拿大豐業銀行。
Andrew Weisel - Analyst
Andrew Weisel - Analyst
First question on nuclear upgrades. I think you've talked about potential in the neighborhood of about 600. You've identified the 400 (inaudible) with Meta, and I think you talked about 200 today with Comanche. Does that essentially cover the opportunity? Or do you see potential for more?
關於核能升級的第一個問題。我認為你之前提到過潛在數字在 600 左右。你已經把 400(聽不清楚)和 Meta 聯繫起來了,而且我認為你今天和 Comanche 談過 200。這是否基本上涵蓋了所有機會?或者您認為還有更大的發展潛力?
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
No, I think that covers it. The 433 megawatts with Meta, those were -- those are in process. The 200 megawatts, we still have some work to do on those, and that's a future opportunity. But that -- for operates at the existing plants that covers it obviously we're continuing to look at new nuclear and other opportunities. But from the uprate perspective that I think you've got it covered.
不,我想這樣就夠了。Meta 的 433 兆瓦項目,那些——那些項目正在進行中。200兆瓦的裝置容量,我們還有一些工作要做,那是一個未來的機會。但是,就目前在現有工廠的運作而言,顯然我們仍在繼續尋找新的核能和其他機會。但從升級的角度來看,我認為你已經考慮得很周全了。
Andrew Weisel - Analyst
Andrew Weisel - Analyst
Okay. Great. Then on the gas side in ERCOT, I believe you're planning to move forward with Permian Power (inaudible) The news about the badging process potentially impact those. My understanding, if you haven't yet it if you're going to pursue (inaudible) and if you did, they probably wouldn't be eligible for data center contracts. But do those dynamics impact your thinking?
好的。偉大的。然後,在ERCOT的天然氣方面,我相信你們正計劃推進與Permian Power的合作(聽不清楚)。有關認證流程的消息可能會對這些合作產生影響。據我了解,如果你還沒有這樣做,如果你打算繼續(聽不清楚),那麼即使你這樣做了,他們可能也沒有資格獲得資料中心合約。但這些因素會影響你的想法嗎?
Or are you just moving forward the potential changes or uncertainty? How are you thinking about that?
還是你只是在推進應對潛在的變化或不確定性?你對此有何看法?
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
No. I think we continue -- we made the decision on those -- we had a lot of advantages, including the pricing on some equipment we had ordered and some -- the pricing out in West Texas and the land that we have. We continue to see those as being high-return projects. I think we're still in a tough process, and I would expect us to continue to stay in that process. And we're working through that.
不。我認為我們繼續——我們已經就這些做出了決定——我們有很多優勢,包括我們訂購的一些設備的價格,以及西德克薩斯州的價格和我們擁有的土地。我們仍然認為這些項目是高回報項目。我認為我們仍然處於一個艱難的過程中,而且我預計我們還會繼續處於這個過程之中。我們正在努力解決這個問題。
With respect to contracts, I think that we're -- there is interest and from a number of different counterparties about those assets. And I think -- our view is that being in the tough process doesn't prohibit us from locking in some of the revenue that -- on those assets, but we're going to continue to fill out those opportunities and move forward only if we see something that we feel like is the right deal for the company.
關於合同,我認為我們——有很多不同的交易對手對這些資產感興趣。我認為——我們的觀點是,即使處於艱難的談判過程中,也不會阻止我們鎖定這些資產的部分收入,但我們將繼續尋找機會,只有當我們認為這是對公司有利的交易時才會推進。
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Yes. And Andrew, the batching process doesn't affect the test units. It's a load interconnection process that's being considered to start studying load requests on a more grouped basis as opposed to one by one, but it won't affect our Permian (inaudible) units.
是的。安德魯,批量處理過程不會影響測試單元。我們正在考慮實施負載互連流程,以便以更分組的方式研究負載請求,而不是逐一研究,但這不會影響我們的二疊紀(聽不清楚)單元。
Andrew Weisel - Analyst
Andrew Weisel - Analyst
Okay. Great. Then one last one, if I can. On repurchases, can you talk about the flexibility under the 10b5-1 program? You mentioned it.
好的。偉大的。如果可以的話,最後再問一個。關於股票回購,您能否談談 10b5-1 計畫下的彈性?你提到了。
I see you were pretty active year-to-date with $200 million which is quite a bit ahead of the ratable pace compared to $1 billion for the full year. Can you just explain a bit how that works? And what sort of discretion you have over the pace and timing? And how to think about the outlook going forward mechanically under the 10b5-1?
我注意到你今年迄今相當活躍,收入已達 2 億美元,這比全年 10 億美元的預期增速要快得多。你能簡單解釋一下它是如何運作的嗎?你對節奏和時間安排有多大的自主權?那麼,在 10b5-1 法則下,如何從機械角度看待未來的前景呢?
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. I can't really get into the specifics. But we -- as we've said, we have structured it, and there's ways to structure those programs where depending on where the trading values are, it can increase the pace, and we obviously do that. You can see that in January and February at the prices that we've been trading we've been leaning in. Same thing happened last year. There was -- again, early in the year, there was some price pressure.
是的。我無法透露具體細節。但是,正如我們所說,我們已經對其進行了結構化設計,並且可以根據交易價值的狀況來調整這些程序的結構,從而加快交易速度,而我們顯然也正是這樣做的。你可以看到,在一月和二月,我們一直以這樣的價格進行交易,我們一直在加大投入。去年也發生過同樣的事情。今年年初,價格確實面臨一些壓力。
We leaned in, the program leaned in. And then as the price rebounded had pulled back and we ended up spending right around the $1 billion last year. But importantly, as we looked at last year, if you look at the weighted average price throughout the year, our program beat that by just under $10 a share. So that's just -- that's the intention is for it to be more active when we see some price pressure. And we continue to tweak how we go about that and when we get into open windows.
我們積極參與,專案也積極參與。然後隨著價格反彈,我們最終在去年花費了大約 10 億美元。但重要的是,正如我們去年所看到的,如果你看一下全年的加權平均價格,我們的專案每股收益比這個價格高出近 10 美元。所以,我們的目的是,當價格面臨壓力時,讓它更加活躍。我們會不斷調整我們的做法以及何時打開窗戶。
As we get into open windows, we're able to make changes, and we continue to rethink and optimize that program so that it's doing exactly what we want it to do.
當我們打開視窗時,我們能夠做出改變,我們會不斷重新思考和優化程序,使其完全按照我們想要的方式運作。
Operator
Operator
David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.
大衛‧阿卡羅,摩根士丹利。
David Arcaro - Analyst
David Arcaro - Analyst
Stacey, thanks for all the updates here where your discussions stand with potential counterparties. I was curious if you could just maybe give us any color on timing as to what we might expect for the next iteration of data center contracting activity that you might be able to achieve on your fleet? I know you've been very busy over the last couple of months. clearly, with your successes. But I'm just wondering if you could give -- are we going to have to wait for the backstop auction in PJM, for example, and not expect anything until we get more clarity there?
Stacey,感謝你在這裡提供的所有最新信息,讓你了解與潛在交易對手的談判進展。我想請教一下,您能否透露一下下一輪資料中心合約簽訂活動的具體時間安排,以及您預計在您的資料中心叢集上能夠取得的成果?我知道你過去幾個月非常忙碌,這從你所取得的成功中可見一斑。但我只是想問一下,例如,我們是否必須等到 PJM 的後備拍賣,並且在情況更加明朗之前不要抱有任何期望?
What's the pace of those discussions? And any color (inaudible) would be helpful.
這些討論進展如何?任何顏色(聽不清楚)都會有所幫助。
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Yes, David, well, it's only been 6 weeks since we announced the Meta deal. So you're not giving me a lot of time there. But I'm not going to comment on specific timing. I can just tell you that we have a number of conversations underway. Customers are very motivated to start making some of these things happen because they're anxious to get going with the data center development.
是的,David,距離我們宣布與 Meta 達成協議才過了 6 週。所以你沒給我太多時間。但我不會對具體時間發表評論。我只能告訴你,我們目前正在進行多項對話。客戶們非常有動力開始推進這些事情,因為他們渴望盡快啟動資料中心建置。
So we feel good about where our conversations stand. And as we've always said, when we have an actual contract and agreement to announce, as you've now seen us do twice, we will announce that.
所以,我們對目前的對話進展感到滿意。正如我們一直所說,當我們有了正式的合約和協議要宣佈時(就像你們現在已經看到我們兩次那樣),我們會宣布的。
David Arcaro - Analyst
David Arcaro - Analyst
Okay. Got it. And then maybe just on Comanche Peak. I was wondering what the -- maybe timing or milestones as to what would drive the upgrade opportunities? And could you be involved in any other on-site power opportunities, whether it's new generation or would you be involved in the backup generation there? Curious, any color on that.
好的。知道了。然後或許就去科曼奇峰吧。我想知道,或許是時間節點或里程碑事件,哪些因素會推動升級機會?您是否願意參與其他現場電力項目,無論是新建發電設施還是備用發電設施?好奇,任何顏色都可以。
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Stacey Dore - Executive Vice President - Public Affairs, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer
Yes. Thanks, David. Yes, on the uprate timing, we're continuing to study that possible upgrade at Comanche Peak. But right now, honestly, we are very focused on executing for our customer all the things that need to happen to make sure the data center on site at Comanche Peak gets online on time. That's our number one focus at Comanche Peak at the moment.
是的。謝謝你,大衛。是的,關於升級時間,我們正在繼續研究科曼奇峰可能的升級方案。但說實話,目前我們正全力以赴地為客戶執行所有必要的工作,以確保位於科曼奇峰的現場資料中心按時上線。這是我們目前在科曼奇峰的首要任務。
But certainly, the team continues to explore the upgrade in the background. And as we've mentioned earlier, we have the opportunity potentially with the same customer to add that up rate to the portfolio. So we'll continue to keep you updated as (inaudible) news on that front. Certainly, we have a lot of land at Comanche Peak and we definitely could explore new generation at that site. As you may know, in the past, the company had looked at Comanche Peak Unit 3 and 4.
但可以肯定的是,團隊仍在幕後繼續探索升級方案。正如我們之前提到的,我們有機會與同一客戶一起將該上調利率添加到投資組合中。所以我們會繼續向您通報這方面的最新消息(聽不清楚)。當然,我們在科曼奇峰擁有大片土地,我們完全可以在那裡探索新一代技術。您可能知道,該公司過去曾考察過科曼奇峰3號和4號機組。
There was plenty of land to do that. In fact, we had an early application in with the NRC to do that before we pulled it kind of around 2015, I think. It's also a site that has access to gas. So there's a lot of opportunities to make that site really a center for energy and hopefully data center as well with Amazon coming on site.
有足夠的土地可以這樣做。事實上,我們早在 2015 年左右就向美國核管會 (NRC) 提交過申請,後來撤回了申請。這裡也有天然氣供應。因此,有很多機會可以將該地點真正打造成為能源中心,隨著亞馬遜的入駐,預計將其打造成為資料中心。
Operator
Operator
That (inaudible) our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Kris Moldovan for any closing remarks.
那是(聽不清楚)我們的問答環節。我謹將會議交還給克里斯·莫爾多萬,請他作總結發言。
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristopher Moldovan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. I just want to thank everybody that participated on today's call. As Jim noted in our prepared remarks, we're very proud of what the team accomplished in 2025. And as we've been talking about, we're very excited to execute on the numerous opportunities in front of us. So thank you for your interest in Vistra, and have a great day.
是的。我只想感謝今天參加電話會議的所有人。正如吉姆在我們準備好的演講稿中所提到的,我們為團隊在 2025 年所取得的成就感到非常自豪。正如我們剛才所說,我們非常興奮能夠抓住擺在我們面前的眾多機會。感謝您對Vistra的關注,祝您有美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This now concludes our conference for today. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.
謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位蒞臨今天的報告會。現在您可以斷開線路了,祝您有美好的一天。