Vistra Corp. (VST) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. Welcome to the Vistra Corp. third quarter 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time.

各位好。歡迎參加 Vistra Corp. 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 本通話將被錄音。如有任何異議，請於此時中斷連線。

I would now like to turn the call over to Eric Micek, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想把電話會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Eric Micek。請開始。

Good morning, and thank you for joining Vistra's investor webcast discussing our third quarter 2026 results. Our discussion today is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com. There, you can also find copies of today's investor presentation and earnings release. Providing our prepared remarks today are Jim Burke, Vistra's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kris Moldovan, Vistra's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other senior Vistra executives will be available to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.

各位早安，感謝各位收看 Vistra 的投資人網路直播，一同討論我們 2026 年第三季的業績。我們今天的討論將透過本公司網站 www.vistracorp.com 的「投資人關係」專區進行即時直播；您也可在該處取得今日的投資人簡報與財報新聞稿。今天的預先準備發言將由 Vistra 總裁暨執行長 Jim Burke，以及 Vistra 執行副總裁暨財務長 Kris Moldovan 提供。視需要，Vistra 其他資深主管也將在今日電話會議的第二部分回答提問。

Our earnings release, presentation and other matters discussed on the call today include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. All references to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow before growth throughout this presentation refer to ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA and ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the earnings release and in the appendix to the investor presentation available in the Investor Relations section of Vistra's website.

我們的財報新聞稿、簡報以及今日電話會議中討論的其他事項，包含對若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的引用。本簡報中所有對「調整後 EBITDA」與「成長前調整後自由現金流」的引用，均指「持續營運之調整後 EBITDA」與「持續營運之成長前調整後自由現金流」。與最直接可比之 GAAP 指標的調節表，已載於財報新聞稿以及投資人簡報附錄中，並可於 Vistra 官網的投資人關係專區取得。

Also, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements from those projected or implied. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements. I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statements included on slide 2 of the investor presentation on our website that explain the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry, and market data included in the presentation and the use of non-GAAP financial measures.

此外，今日討論亦包含前瞻性陳述，與所預測或暗示者可能不同。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述之義務。我鼓勵所有聽眾查閱我們網站投資人簡報第 2 頁所載之「安全港」聲明，其中說明前瞻性陳述之風險、簡報中所含特定產業與市場資料之限制，以及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標之使用。

I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jim Burke.

現在我將把電話會議交給我們的總裁暨執行長 Jim Burke。

Thank you, Eric. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today to discuss our third quarter 2026 results. Before we jump into our performance, I recognize there is interest in the election results and any anticipated impacts for our business. I'm sure we will discuss this more in Q&A, but just a few opening thoughts.

謝謝你，Eric。各位早安，也感謝各位今天加入我們，一同討論 2026 年第三季的業績。在我們深入談績效之前，我知道大家關注選舉結果以及對我們業務可能帶來的影響。我相信我們會在問答環節進一步討論，但先分享幾點開場想法。

Given our company has a very long history of serving customers and operating in our communities, we constantly work with policymakers of both parties at local, state, and federal levels. We offer an essential service, and our focus remains the same after the election, providing reliable and affordable power to our customers.

鑑於本公司長期以來服務客戶並在社區營運，我們持續在地方、州與聯邦層級與兩黨政策制定者合作。我們提供的是關鍵民生服務；選後我們的重點不變，仍將為客戶提供可靠且可負擔的電力。

We operate a diversified fleet of assets across the country while serving retail customers in 16 states plus DC. We believe we are in some of the most attractive states for growth, and we expect policymakers to remain focused on economic opportunities and ensuring load growth is managed in a constructive manner for all customers.

我們在全國各地營運多元化的資產組合，同時在 16 個州加上華盛頓特區服務零售客戶。我們相信我們所在的一些州具備最具吸引力的成長條件，並預期政策制定者仍將聚焦於經濟機會，並以對所有客戶具建設性的方式管理負載成長。

To be clear, the pacing was already being impacted ahead of the election, but our plans have always had a more conservative view of the AI build-out. Stated more simply, the election results do not change our fundamental view of the opportunities Vistra has, and our team is prepared to continue executing.

需要說明的是，在選舉之前，節奏就已受到影響，但我們的規劃一向對 AI 建置擴張採取較為保守的看法。更簡單地說，選舉結果不會改變我們對 Vistra 所擁有機會的基本觀點，我們的團隊也已準備好持續執行。

Starting on slide 5, Vistra delivered approximately $2.4 billion of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter, a record for the company. Our generation team performed very well, delivering commercial availability approaching 95% across the thermal fleet despite the elevated demand from the record third quarter weather.

從第 5 頁開始，Vistra 在第三季實現約 24 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，創公司紀錄。儘管第三季天氣創紀錄帶來較高需求，我們的發電團隊表現非常出色，火力機組群的商業可用率接近 95%。

This impressive operational performance was complemented by the results delivered by our commercial team through execution of our comprehensive hedging program, and our retail team, which continues to deliver strong results.

這項亮眼的營運表現，亦由我們商務團隊透過執行全面避險計畫所交出的成果，以及持續繳出強勁成績的零售團隊表現所相輔相成。

With this record third quarter performance, combined with our results year-to-date and the recent closing of the Cogentrix acquisition, we are narrowing our guidance ranges for our 2026 adjusted EBITDA to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion and our 2026 adjusted free cash flow before growth to $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion, with each reflecting a higher midpoint than the original ranges. Importantly, this marks the fifth consecutive year we expect to finish above the midpoint of our original guidance range.

在創紀錄的第三季表現之下，結合我們年初至今的成果以及近期完成的 Cogentrix 收購案，我們將 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 指引區間收斂至 71 億至 75 億美元，並將 2026 年成長前調整後自由現金流指引區間收斂至 43 億至 47 億美元；兩者的區間中點均高於原先區間。重要的是，這將是我們連續第五年預期最終結果高於原始指引區間的中點。

Moving to the near-term outlook. We are introducing guidance ranges for 2027 adjusted EBITDA of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion and 2027 adjusted free cash flow before growth of $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion, including the expected contribution from the Cogentrix acquisition, and the power purchase agreement with Meta for the operating capacity at our Perry nuclear plant.

接著談近期展望。我們提出 2027 年調整後 EBITDA 指引區間為 77 億至 85 億美元，以及 2027 年成長前調整後自由現金流指引區間為 43 億至 51 億美元；其中包含 Cogentrix 收購案的預期貢獻，以及與 Meta 就我們 Perry 核電廠營運容量所簽訂的購電協議。

Moving to slide 6. We closed the Cogentrix acquisition on October 30, and we are excited to welcome our new team members to the Vistra family. As we've said before, we believe integrating and operating generation assets at scale is a core competency of Vistra. We've demonstrated this with Dynegy, Energy Harbor, and most recently, the assets acquired from LOTUS. We see similar opportunities with Cogentrix -- these assets are a strong complement to our existing fleet, expanding our presence in key markets, and our ability to serve growing customer demand with reliable, flexible power.

請看第 6 頁。我們已於 10 月 30 日完成 Cogentrix 收購案交割，並很高興歡迎新成員加入 Vistra 大家庭。如同我們先前所說，我們相信以規模整合並營運發電資產是 Vistra 的核心能力。我們已在 Dynegy、Energy Harbor，以及最近自 LOTUS 收購的資產上證明了這一點。我們也在 Cogentrix 看見類似機會——這些資產能與我們既有機組群形成強力互補，擴大我們在關鍵市場的布局，並提升我們以可靠、具彈性的電力服務不斷成長客戶需求的能力。

They also fit with our core strategy of owning and operating dispatchable generation assets, which we believe will continue to play a critical role in delivering reliable, affordable and flexible power to U.S. electricity markets.

這些資產也符合我們擁有並營運可調度發電資產的核心策略；我們相信此類資產將持續在為美國電力市場提供可靠、可負擔且具彈性的電力方面扮演關鍵角色。

With Cogentrix, Vistra now owns a generation portfolio of approximately 50,000 megawatts, including approximately 25,000 megawatts of modern combined cycle gas generation across all the major competitive markets. In early 2018, 100% of our generation earnings came from Texas. However, today, just under 40% of our generation earnings comes from the Texas fleet reflecting the diversification of our business across markets, technologies and customer classes. From a financial perspective, the Cogentrix deal economics were even more attractive. We acquired approximately 5,500 megawatts for a net purchase price of approximately $4 billion, including 5 million shares of common stock at an agreed value of $185 per share equating to a value of approximately $729 per kilowatt of capacity.

透過 Cogentrix，Vistra 現在擁有約 50,000 兆瓦的發電資產組合，其中包括在所有主要競爭性市場約 25,000 兆瓦的現代化燃氣複循環發電。在 2018 年初，我們 100% 的發電獲利來自德州。然而，今天我們的發電獲利中，來自德州機組群的占比已降至略低於 40%，反映出我們在市場、技術與客戶類別上的業務多元化。從財務角度來看，Cogentrix 交易的經濟效益更具吸引力。我們以約 40 億美元的淨收購價取得約 5,500 兆瓦的資產，其中包含 500 萬股普通股，按協議每股 185 美元計價，折算為每千瓦容量約 729 美元。

Since the announcement of the transaction, our forecast for the earnings contribution of the Cogentrix assets has meaningfully improved. Accordingly, we now expect the transaction to deliver high single-digit adjusted free cash flow accretion over the near term, increasing the double-digit accretion beginning in 2029.

自交易宣布以來，我們對 Cogentrix 資產獲利貢獻的預測已顯著改善。因此，我們目前預期該交易在近期將帶來高個位數的成長前調整後自由現金流增益，並自 2029 年起提升為雙位數增益。

Turning to Slide 7. actualized data continues to confirm the structurally improved demand environment we've talked about for our core markets. In 2026, both PJM and ERCOT set new all-time peak load records with PJM reaching approximately 168 gigawatts and ERCOT approximately 91 gigawatts and importantly, the power markets performed well during these peaks, demonstrating that competitive power markets can respond effectively as demand grows. Growth in energy continues to be robust, and it's coming from multiple sources -- increased industrial activity, population growth, particularly in Texas, ongoing electrification and data centers. You see these strong demand trends playing out in PJM with higher forward prices.

接著看第 7 頁。已實現的數據持續印證我們先前談到的核心市場需求環境在結構性上已改善。2026 年，PJM 與 ERCOT 均創下歷史新高的尖峰負載紀錄：PJM 約達 168 吉瓦，ERCOT 約達 91 吉瓦；更重要的是，電力市場在這些尖峰期間運作良好，顯示競爭性電力市場能在需求成長時有效回應。用電量成長仍然強勁，且來源多元——工業活動增加、人口成長（尤其在德州）、持續電氣化以及資料中心。您可在 PJM 看到這些強勁需求趨勢反映在更高的遠期價格上。

ERCOT prices, however, have been trending lower. We believe this is due to several factors, including some crypto mining facilities coming offline, so they can convert into data centers as well as the data center audit and permitting pause. We do not see this as a long-term impact. As we've said for some time, load interconnect queues were overstated across the country and especially in ERCOT, driven by speculation from developers who are keeping options open to see where progress can be made. Residents and some communities are understandably concerned about the level of proposed development activity and policymakers are working on longer-term solutions.

然而，ERCOT 價格一直呈下降趨勢。我們認為這是由多項因素所致，包括部分加密貨幣挖礦設施下線，以便轉型為資料中心，以及資料中心稽核與許可核發的暫停。我們不認為這會造成長期影響。正如我們一段時間以來所說，全國各地、尤其是在 ERCOT，負載併網排隊申請被高估，主要是由開發商的投機行為所驅動；他們保留多種選項，以觀察哪些地方能取得進展。居民與部分社區對於提案中的開發活動規模感到憂慮是可以理解的，而政策制定者也正在研擬較長期的解決方案。

As we've advocated in multiple forums, raising the bar on these projects can go a long way towards identifying the ones that are likely to move forward. This includes higher collateral requirements for interconnect requests, committing the take-or-pay agreement for the incremental wires charges, line of sight to equipment and an agreement with an end use customer.

正如我們在多個場合所倡議，提高這些專案的門檻，將有助於辨識哪些專案更可能推進。這包括：提高併網申請的擔保品要求、承諾就新增線路費用簽訂 take-or-pay（照付不議）協議、對設備供應具備可視性（line of sight），以及與終端用電客戶達成協議。

Aspects of this have been done effectively in other states, and has helped to focus on the real projects that are ready to move forward. Despite the recent political and regulatory activity, our outlook has not changed. We still see low growth of 4% to 6% in ERCOT and 2% to 3% in PJM through 2030. Vistra with its large diversified fleet is well equipped to meet this growth. Our flexible combined cycle gas plants and quick-start peaking plants can operate at higher utilizations and that remains the cheapest and quickest source of incremental generation.

其中部分作法已在其他州有效推行，並有助於聚焦於真正已準備好推進的專案。儘管近期政治與監管活動頻繁，我們的展望並未改變。我們仍預期至 2030 年，ERCOT 的低成長為 4% 至 6%，PJM 為 2% 至 3%。Vistra 憑藉其大型且多元化的機組組合，具備充分條件來滿足此成長。我們具彈性的複循環燃氣機組與快速啟動的尖峰機組可在更高利用率下運轉，而這仍是新增發電量最便宜且最快速的來源。

Turning to Slide 8. You can see how the load growth fundamentals support Vistra's multiyear improvement in profitability levels. At the center of this forecast is the day-to-day execution by the teams in our base business, which continues to perform very well across generation, retail and our commercial activities. Moving beyond operational excellence, the team has already made substantial progress on several major initiatives that underpin the significant growth forecasted for our business. We've now successfully closed on over 12 gigawatts of acquisitions through Energy Harbor, LOTUS and Cogentrix, at attractive acquisition multiples of less than 7x forward EBITDA on average.

接著看第 8 頁投影片。你可以看到，負載成長的基本面如何支撐 Vistra 多年期獲利能力水準的改善。此預測的核心，是我們基礎業務團隊的日常執行，且在發電、零售與商業活動方面持續表現優異。除了營運卓越之外，團隊也已在多項支撐我們業務顯著成長預測的重大計畫上取得實質進展。我們目前已透過 Energy Harbor、LOTUS 與 Cogentrix，成功完成超過 12 吉瓦的收購，且收購倍數具吸引力，平均低於 7 倍的前瞻 EBITDA。

Additionally, the development team has delivered over 4 gigawatts of long-term power purchase agreements across both our nuclear and gas sites, some of which like the perinuclear contract with Meta will begin contributing to our 2027 results. We also see an extensive list of near-term initiatives and development opportunities like the coal to gas conversions and Permian Peaker new build that will begin contributing in 2028. Looking longer term, customer conversations and activity levels remain high. We're in active discussions with large load customers in both PJM and ERCOT on existing and new build assets, addressing both short-term and long-term power needs. Customers would prefer to have clarity.

此外，開發團隊已在我們的核能與燃氣場址合計簽下超過 4 吉瓦的長期購電協議，其中部分（例如與 Meta 的核電周邊合約）將自 2027 年起開始貢獻我們的業績。我們也看到一長串近期計畫與開發機會，例如燃煤轉燃氣改造以及 Permian Peaker 新建案，將於 2028 年開始貢獻。從更長期來看，客戶洽談與活動水準仍然維持高檔。我們正與 PJM 與 ERCOT 的大型負載客戶，就既有資產與新建資產進行積極討論，以滿足短期與長期的用電需求。客戶希望能有更明確的方向。

But working together, we are finding ways to work through the uncertainty and our team remains engaged on multiple projects to help customers develop solutions to meet their power needs.

但透過共同合作，我們正在找出方法來度過不確定性，而我們的團隊也持續投入多個專案，協助客戶制定解決方案以滿足其用電需求。

We see pathways to realize multiple additional contracting opportunities across our large and diversified fleet of approximately 50,000 megawatts of nuclear, gas, coal and renewable generation. Our expanded development team continues to work through these opportunities, and we are encouraged by the significant progress achieved to date. Now I'll turn it over to Kris to provide more details on our third quarter results our capital allocation priorities and our adjusted free cash flow per share growth expectations. Kris?

我們看到多條途徑，可在我們約 50,000 兆瓦、涵蓋核能、燃氣、燃煤與再生能源的龐大且多元化發電機組組合中，實現多項額外的簽約機會。我們擴編後的開發團隊持續推進這些機會，且我們對迄今取得的重大進展感到鼓舞。接下來我把時間交給 Kris，請他更詳細說明我們第三季業績、資本配置優先順序，以及調整後每股自由現金流成長的預期。Kris？

Thank you, Jim. Turning to Slide 10. Vistra delivered adjusted EBITDA of $2 billion $378 million, a company record that represents a more than 50% increase compared to the third quarter of 2025. Our Generation business delivered $2.28 billion of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter compared to $1.544 billion in the third quarter of 2025. The year-over-year improvement was primarily driven by average realized prices that were more than 10% higher on a per megawatt hour basis compared to the same quarter last year, higher capacity revenue optimizing the dispatch of our flexible gas generation assets in response to market conditions, the restart of Martin Lake Unit 1 and the contribution from assets acquired from LOTUS in the fourth quarter of 2025.

謝謝你，Jim。接著看第 10 頁投影片。Vistra 本季交出調整後 EBITDA 為 20 億 3,780 萬美元，創公司紀錄，較 2025 年第三季增加逾 50%。我們的發電業務本季貢獻 22.8 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，相較於 2025 年第三季的 15.44 億美元。年增改善主要來自：平均實現價格以每兆瓦時為基礎較去年同期高出逾 10%、容量收入增加、因應市場狀況而最佳化我們具彈性的燃氣發電資產調度、Martin Lake 1 號機組重啟，以及 2025 年第四季自 LOTUS 收購資產的貢獻。

Retail also had a strong quarter, contributing approximately $98 million of adjusted EBITDA. As a reminder, we expect lower profitability in the first and third quarters due to the shape and level of supply cost. Despite the higher summer costs, retail performed very well, driven by favorable margins and strong customer volumes, largely due to the hotter-than-normal weather in the quarter.

零售業務本季同樣表現強勁，貢獻約 9,800 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。提醒一下，由於供應成本的形狀與水準，我們預期第一季與第三季的獲利能力較低。儘管夏季成本較高，零售仍表現非常好，主要受惠於有利的利差與強勁的客戶用量，而這在很大程度上是因本季天氣較常年更炎熱所致。

Moving to our year-to-date results. Adjusted EBITDA totaled approximately $5,639 million, representing a more than 35% increase over the prior year period. Similar to the quarter, the year-to-date improvement was largely driven by higher average realized prices across our fleet, higher capacity payments in PJM, the return of Martin Lake Unit 1 fleet dispatch optimization and the contribution from the assets acquired from LOTUS.

接著看我們年初至今的結果。調整後 EBITDA 合計約 56.39 億美元，較去年同期增加逾 35%。與本季類似，年初至今的改善主要由以下因素帶動：我們整體機組的平均實現價格提高、PJM 的容量款項增加、Martin Lake 1 號機組回歸、機組調度最佳化，以及自 LOTUS 收購資產的貢獻。

Moving to Slide 11. We continue to take a disciplined approach to capital allocation, prioritizing a strong balance sheet, return of capital and strategic growth opportunities. Beginning with the balance sheet, the diversification of our business and a significantly higher and more contracted earnings outlook, have driven the derisking of our credit profile which contributed to us achieving investment-grade credit ratings from 2 of the 3 major credit rating agencies. Pro forma for the closing of the Cogentrix acquisition and the redemption of our Series A preferred stock with proceeds from the issuance of junior subordinated notes, our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio is approximately 2.8x.

接著看第 11 頁投影片。我們持續採取嚴謹的資本配置方式，優先考量強健的資產負債表、資本回饋以及策略性成長機會。先從資產負債表談起：我們業務的多元化，以及顯著提高且合約化程度更高的獲利展望，推動了我們信用體質的去風險化，並促成我們獲得三大信用評等機構中的兩家授予投資等級信用評等。以完成 Cogentrix 收購交割，以及以發行次順位從屬票據（junior subordinated notes）的募集資金贖回 A 系列特別股後的備考（pro forma）基礎計算，我們的淨負債對調整後 EBITDA 比率約為 2.8 倍。

Going forward, we expect our leverage ratio to continue to decline resulting in credit metrics consistent with our target credit ratings of BBB flat and Baa2.

展望未來，我們預期槓桿比率將持續下降，使信用指標與我們目標信用評等 BBB（平）與 Baa2 相一致。

Moving to capital return. Our share repurchase program continues to create significant value. Since initiating the program in November 2021, we have retired approximately 172 million shares at an average cost of approximately $39 per share including the approximately $1 billion in share repurchases already completed this year through November 2. With the additional Board authorization this quarter, we now have approximately $2.5 billion of share repurchase authorization which we currently expect to fully utilize by no later than the end of 2028. This additional authorization provides us flexibility to purchase more than our annual target of at least $1 billion of share repurchases in 2026, 2027 and/or 2028 as market conditions warrant.

接著談資本回饋。我們的庫藏股回購計畫持續創造顯著價值。自 2021 年 11 月啟動該計畫以來，我們已以每股約 39 美元的平均成本註銷約 1.72 億股，包含截至 11 月 2 日止今年已完成約 10 億美元的股票回購。隨著本季董事會追加授權，我們目前約有 25 億美元的股票回購授權額度，並預期最遲於 2028 年底前全數使用完畢。此追加授權使我們具備彈性，可視市場狀況於 2026、2027 和／或 2028 年，回購超過我們每年至少 10 億美元的目標金額。

And of course, we continue to target at least $300 million of annual dividends.

當然，我們也持續以每年至少 3 億美元的股利為目標。

Finally, turning to growth. As Jim outlined, the improved power demand backdrop has increased the number of available growth opportunities we have. Some of these growth opportunities, such as contracts with existing assets, would result in little to no incremental capital requirements, leading to high rates of return, other opportunities like our Permian peakers and Nuclear uprates as well as potential contracted new build do require incremental capital. Importantly, we have the opportunity to work with strategic partners like Helix digital infrastructure that can expand our access to long-term capital.

最後，談到成長。如 Jim 所概述，電力需求背景的改善增加了我們可把握的成長機會數量。其中部分成長機會（例如既有資產的合約）幾乎不需要或完全不需要額外資本支出，因此可帶來較高的報酬率；而其他機會，如我們的 Permian 尖峰機組、核電增容（uprates），以及潛在的合約化新建案，則需要額外資本投入。重要的是，我們有機會與 Helix digital infrastructure 等策略夥伴合作，以擴大我們取得長期資本的管道。

Finally, M&A continues to be a strong driver of value for the business. We will continue to be opportunistic, looking to strategically add assets that are complementary to our existing fleet. As always, we will be disciplined in the deployment of capital to growth investments, whether organic or inorganic. For all investment decisions, our target return threshold remains consistent at mid-teens or higher on a levered basis.

最後，併購（M&A）仍持續是推動公司價值的重要動能。我們將持續把握機會，尋求在策略上增添與我們既有機隊互補的資產。一如既往，無論是有機或無機成長投資，我們在成長投資的資本部署上都將保持紀律。對於所有投資決策，我們的目標報酬門檻仍維持一致：在槓桿基礎上為中十位數（mid-teens）或更高。

Finally, moving to Slide 12. As we discussed earlier this year, we believe adjusted free cash flow before growth per share is an important indicator of long-term value creation for shareholders as it captures not only the sustainably higher level of cash flow generation of the business, but also the benefits of our consistent allocation of a significant portion of our available cash to share repurchases. You can see from the chart that we are already well underway to delivering on a compelling growth trajectory over the next several years, with adjusted free cash flow per share growing from just under $10.5 in 2025 to approximately $14 in 2027, assuming the midpoint of our adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance and the deployment of capital to share repurchases at the November 2 share price.

最後，轉到第12頁投影片。如同我們今年稍早所討論的，我們認為「成長前、經調整的每股自由現金流」是衡量股東長期價值創造的重要指標，因為它不僅反映公司可持續提升的現金流創造能力，也反映我們一貫將可用現金中的相當大部分配置於庫藏股回購所帶來的效益。從圖表可見，在假設採用我們「成長前經調整自由現金流」指引的中位數，並以11月2日的股價部署資本進行股票回購的情況下，我們已在未來數年實現具吸引力的成長軌跡：經調整每股自由現金流將由2025年略低於10.5美元成長至2027年約14美元。

Looking beyond 2027, the actions we've already taken to date, including our agreement with AWS at Comanche Peak, our agreement with Meta for operating capacity at Davis-Besse and the completion of our Permian peakers provide line of sight to continued growth through the end of the decade. Combined with the current forward curves and a simplifying assumption with respect to the deployment of our excess cash available for allocation to share repurchases. We have line of sight to approximately 70% growth in adjusted free cash flow before growth per share from 2027 to 2030, while achieving leverage metrics meaningfully below what we believe would be required for us to be at our target ratings of BBB flat and Baa2. We think that the level of growth is compelling, particularly when you consider the additional opportunities that are not fully reflected in that outlook including the final ramp of the AWS Comanche Peak agreement assumed in 2032 and the contributions from the PJM nuclear uprates, which are expected to begin in 2031.

展望2027年之後，我們迄今已採取的行動——包括在Comanche Peak與AWS的協議、在Davis-Besse與Meta就營運容量的協議，以及我們二疊紀（Permian）尖峰機組（peakers）的完工——讓我們能清楚看見在本十年末之前持續成長的能見度。再結合目前的遠期曲線，以及對於將可分配的超額現金用於股票回購之資本部署所做的簡化假設。我們可清楚看見，2027年至2030年間，「成長前、經調整的每股自由現金流」可望成長約70%，同時槓桿指標將顯著低於我們認為達到目標評等BBB flat與Baa2所需的水準。我們認為這樣的成長幅度相當具吸引力，尤其是當你考量到在該展望中尚未完全反映的額外機會，包括假設於2032年完成的AWS Comanche Peak協議最終爬坡，以及PJM核電增功（uprates）的貢獻（預計自2031年開始）。

Additionally, we believe we can execute on additional growth opportunities that would provide higher returns than repurchasing our shares. As Jim outlined earlier, the level of customer engagement across our portfolio remains robust, and we remain optimistic in our ability to deliver additional long-term contracts across both our nuclear and gas fleets. We also see continued improvement in power market fundamentals that is not fully reflected in market curves today. These opportunities vary in timing, but we believe they have the potential to drive meaningful additional growth beyond what is reflected in this outlook. Our objective remains the same to allocate capital to opportunities that we believe create the highest long-term value for our shareholders.

此外，我們相信我們也能執行其他成長機會，其報酬可高於回購自家股票。如Jim先前所述，我們投資組合的客戶互動程度仍然強勁，我們也對於在核能與燃氣機隊兩方面簽下更多長期合約的能力保持樂觀。我們也看到電力市場基本面持續改善，而這些改善在目前的市場曲線中尚未完全反映。這些機會在時間點上各有不同，但我們相信它們有潛力帶來超出本展望所反映的、具意義的額外成長。我們的目標不變：將資本配置到我們認為能為股東創造最高長期價值的機會上。

In closing, we believe we have a clear and tangible path to substantial per share free cash flow growth with a number of additional opportunities to build on that trajectory over time. Our team remains focused on finishing the year strong including finishing the preparation of our fleet to deliver reliable performance through the winter months ahead.

總結而言，我們相信我們有一條清晰且可落地的路徑，可實現可觀的每股自由現金流成長，並且隨時間推進仍有多項額外機會可在此軌跡上持續加碼。我們的團隊仍專注於強勢收官，包括完成機隊準備，以在接下來的冬季月份提供可靠的運轉表現。

With that, operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.

接下來，接線員，我們準備開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Shar Pourrezza, Wells Fargo.

Shar Pourrezza，富國銀行（Wells Fargo）。

Eric got a little technological this morning. It's throwing me off. So hope it's working. It's working great. It's working great.

Eric今天早上有點「科技化」。讓我有點亂了節奏。所以希望它能運作。運作得很好。運作得很好。

So just, Jim, on the 2030 free cash flow per share outlook of $24 million, obviously, there's a disconnect between sort of the forwards and fundamentals, especially if all the battery capacity goes away with the bad projects post '28 alone in ERCOT. Can you just comment on what is embedded in that number from a market perspective? What inorganic assumptions are in there? It seems like maybe there's some placeholders for that. And is there continued buybacks in there, et cetera.

所以，Jim，關於2030年每股自由現金流展望的2,400萬美元，顯然遠期曲線與基本面之間存在落差，特別是如果在ERCOT中，2028年之後那些不良專案的電池容量都退出的話。你能否評論一下，從市場角度看，這個數字中包含了哪些假設？其中包含哪些無機成長的假設？看起來可能有一些占位符。以及其中是否也包含持續回購等等。

So maybe just elaborate on the $24 because that's a lot of growth.

所以也許請再多說明一下這個2,400萬美元，因為那是很大的成長。

Yes. I will start, Shar. First of all, we have seen some depression in ERCOT forwards. Obviously, the '26 settles and even where '27 is trading, I think, is a function of some of the slower load growth that we've seen, and we reflected that in our charts, still robust growth, but not at the levels that we would have expected. When we do this analysis out to 2030, we're still reflecting kind of the market forward.

好的。我先開始，Shar。首先，我們確實看到ERCOT遠期價格有些下壓。顯然，2026年的結算價以及目前2027年的交易水準，我認為反映了我們看到的負載成長較慢的情況；我們也在圖表中反映了這點——仍是強勁成長，但不如我們原先預期的水準。當我們把這個分析做到2030年時，我們仍然大致反映市場遠期。

So we're not making an assumption that there's going to be some big recovery in ERCOT. However, we think things will tighten if the load starts to get hooked up, which we think Texas is going to be in a position to do it. So there's not an assumption here of some recovery, Shar. I think that is -- that is something that we would expect to get more clarity on as we work through the details with PUC and ERCOT and obviously, this new administration for the state.

因此，我們並沒有假設ERCOT會出現大幅回升。不過，我們認為如果負載開始接入，市場會趨於吃緊，而我們認為德州將有能力做到這點。所以這裡並沒有假設會有某種復甦，Shar。我認為——我認為這是我們在與PUC與ERCOT釐清細節的過程中，以及當然在州政府新一屆行政團隊之下，會逐步獲得更清楚資訊的部分。

And then I'll let Kris comment here, but then we always make choices about capital allocation. We like the growth projects that we've already got announced. We still think there are growth projects to come that we haven't yet announced. But this assumes that if some of those growth projects don't come, we could lean in a little bit harder on the buyback program because that's always an opportunity for us. Clearly, where we're trading, we think that's a pretty nice return for us to go in harder on the buyback.

接著我會讓Kris在這裡補充，但我們一向會就資本配置做出選擇。我們喜歡已經宣布的成長專案。我們仍認為還會有尚未宣布的成長專案。但這裡假設的是：如果其中一些成長專案沒有出現，我們可以在回購計畫上更積極一些，因為那對我們而言永遠是一個選項。很明顯，以我們目前的交易水準來看，我們認為更積極回購能帶來相當不錯的報酬。

But we also think there's great growth opportunities on top of that. That's not assumed in here. So you might want to just share a little bit about the magnitude of how we're thinking about this capital allocation that drives the $24.

但我們也認為在此之上仍有很好的成長機會。這些並未在此假設中納入。所以你或許可以分享一下，我們如何思考推動這個2,400萬美元的資本配置規模。

Thanks, Jim. Thanks for the question, Chad. I want to start by reiterating what as Jim said, even at current market curves, we continue to project that we are going to produce a significant amount of cash on an annual basis. So what is in here, as Jim said, what we start with is the $1 billion a year in share repurchases of $300 million a year in dividends. And then we only have the spend that we have from projects and growth projects that we've already announced.

謝謝，Jim。也謝謝你的提問，Chad。我想先重申Jim所說的：即使在目前的市場曲線下，我們仍持續預期每年將產生可觀的現金。因此，這裡面包含的內容，如Jim所說，我們的起點是每年10億美元的股票回購，以及每年3億美元的股利。接著我們只納入我們已宣布之專案與成長專案的支出。

We have the spend and the earnings from those, but we haven't done a pro forma. So for instance, on the growth projects that includes the Permian peakers and the Nuclear uprates in PJM. But the nuclear uprates, the spend is happening during this period, but we aren't getting the earnings until after the period, and we're not bringing those earnings in -- so it's really just how we see the earnings going through 2030.

我們納入了這些專案的支出與獲利，但我們並未做備考（pro forma）調整。例如，在成長專案方面，包含二疊紀尖峰機組以及PJM的核電增功。但核電增功的支出發生在這段期間內，而獲利要到這段期間之後才會出現，我們並未把那些獲利納入——因此這其實只是我們對2030年前獲利走勢的看法。

Even after you account for all those commitments that we've announced and we have committed to we still have roughly $2 billion a year to allocate, and that can go to additional share repurchases or growth projects. For the purposes of this chart, we've made a simplifying assumption that will allocate that to share repurchases. Of course, right now, the Board has just recently upped the authorization, so approximately $500 million of that is already allocated to share repurchases. But it's also important to note that, that number you assumes, as I said in the opening remarks, assumes that we are the leverage ratio that's well below what would be required for BBB flat and BAA2, -- it's actually more approaching BBB+ and Baa1.

即使在你把我們已宣布且已承諾的所有事項都納入之後，我們每年仍約有20億美元可供配置，而這些資金可以用於額外的股票回購或成長專案。就這張圖表而言，我們做了一個簡化假設：把這些資金配置到股票回購。當然，目前董事會最近才提高授權，因此其中約5億美元已經配置於股票回購。但同樣重要的是，這個數字所假設的——如我在開場致詞所說——是我們的槓桿比率遠低於達到BBB flat與BAA2所需的水準——實際上更接近BBB+與Baa1。

So after that, simplifying assumption, again, to be clear, that's $2 billion extra per year. So we're effectively in this chart, assuming a roughly $3 billion a year of share repurchases. And as Jim noted, we would expect to beat those returns. We're hoping to find growth projects that will meet the returns that we're showing from share repurchases.

所以在那之後，做個簡化假設，再次說清楚，那是每年額外增加20億美元。因此在這張圖表中，我們實際上是假設每年大約30億美元的股票回購。而正如Jim所提到的，我們預期能夠超越那些報酬。我們希望能找到成長專案，其報酬能達到我們從股票回購所呈現的水準。

Got it. Perfect. And then just lastly, it is good to see the upsized buy back the $1.5 billion. And obviously, you've got cash flows there to reallocate to additional buybacks. But I'm just curious, like you guys closed Cogentrix, you have LOTUS is there opportunities to potentially look at any single noncore assets within those deals to capitalize on the delta valuation delta between the public and private side?

了解。很好。最後一點，看到把回購規模上調到15億美元是件好事。而且很明顯，你們那邊有現金流可以重新配置到額外的回購。但我只是好奇，例如你們完成了Cogentrix的收購，也有LOTUS，在這些交易裡是否有機會去檢視任何單一的非核心資產，利用公開市場與私募市場之間的估值落差來變現？

Or are you comfortable with all the assets that you've acquired between the 2 Cogentrix and LOTUS.

或者你們對於在Cogentrix與LOTUS這兩筆交易中所收購的所有資產都感到滿意？

Sure. We -- first of all, we like the portfolio a lot. We have agreed to sell Rumford. So there's going to be a divestiture that's just part of how we were able to get to the close. We had sold some other assets.

當然。我們——首先，我們非常喜歡這個資產組合。我們已同意出售Rumford。所以會有一筆資產剝離，這也是我們能夠完成交割的一部分原因。我們也出售了一些其他資產。

You've read about recently the notable 1 in Maine, Casco Bay -- we will continue to look at the portfolio, but we think a core competency of what we bring to the table is the integration and the synergies and the operating performance improvements. And we think on the Cogentrix portfolio, we think there's upside even what we've put into this forecast. It takes time to get to that work. So it isn't just day 1 synergies, which we did capture, but the ongoing improvements.

你最近也讀到過那筆在緬因州的知名交易，Casco Bay——我們會持續檢視整體資產組合，但我們認為我們帶來的一項核心能力是整合、協同效應，以及營運績效的改善。而且我們認為在Cogentrix的資產組合上，甚至相較於我們在這份預測中納入的內容，仍有上行空間。要把這些工作做到位需要時間。所以不只是第1天的協同效應（我們確實已經捕捉到了），還包括持續性的改善。

We also like the flexibility of these assets. This is a heavy CCGT portfolio. There are also some peakers in it. We think as renewable penetration continues throughout the country. You're seeing these assets get called on more.

我們也喜歡這些資產的彈性。這是一個以CCGT為主的資產組合。其中也有一些尖峰機組（peakers）。我們認為，隨著再生能源滲透率在全國持續提高，你會看到這些資產被調度的頻率更高。

And you see that even in the appendix where you look at the CCGT capacity factors across our fleet. They're all up in Q3 relative to prior years. So we've been bullish on dispatchable. We've been bullish on flexibility. So I think we're going to continue to see that not getting the value in today's market, but we think it's going to show up over time.

你甚至可以在附錄中看到，當你查看我們機組群的CCGT容量因子時，相較於前幾年，第三季都上升了。所以我們一直看多可調度電源。我們一直看多彈性。因此我認為我們會持續看到：在今天的市場裡可能還沒有反映出價值，但我們認為隨著時間推移會逐步顯現。

So as a long-term owner-operator, we like the fleet.

所以作為長期的持有者與營運者，我們喜歡這個機組群。

James West, Melius Research.

James West，Melius Research。

And James, quick 1 for me really to address kind of the elephant in the room, I guess, from the suite with the midterms and what happened there. I'd love to get your thoughts on kind of Texas and what could unfold, also PJM, I mean, our view is not consistent with what the market sell off. Showed, but you're obviously in conversations with leadership in both markets. And I just wanted to get your kind of high-level thoughts on -- has there been a real change on kind of the more so on the data center development side, which is what seemed to be on the put out or in advanced manufacturing.

James，我這邊有個簡短問題，想談談我猜是會議室裡那頭「大象」——期中選舉以及其結果。我很想聽聽你對德州以及可能的後續發展、還有PJM的看法；我的意思是，我們的觀點與市場的拋售反應並不一致。但你們顯然正與兩個市場的領導層保持對話。我想聽聽你高層次的看法——在資料中心開發端（看起來是市場最在意的部分）或先進製造方面，是否真的出現了實質性的變化？

Yes. James, thank you for the question. So a couple of thoughts there. Before the elections, in many markets, we were seeing concerns about data centers in the way that the public was reacting to the pace of development, who had control over those decisions what impact could it have on electric prices, water, all of that. And that was a bipartisan issue.

是的。James，謝謝你的問題。我有幾點想法。在選舉之前，在許多市場，我們就看到外界對資料中心的疑慮：公眾如何看待開發速度、誰掌握決策權、對電價與用水等可能造成什麼影響。而這是跨黨派的議題。

So I think that issue was already showing itself and it obviously was a topic in the midterms and probably not the single most important topic, but it was a topic for the midterms. I believe in any of our markets that we're in, moving past this election is a positive just in terms of being able to understand what's at stake and now how do we move forward.

所以我認為這個議題本來就已經浮現，當然也成為期中選舉的討論話題；可能不是最重要的單一議題，但確實是其中一個話題。我相信在我們所處的任何市場，選舉結束後都是正面的，至少在於能更清楚理解利害關係，接下來該如何推進。

Clearly, most states we're operating in have had changes in leadership in terms of party leadership with some frequency. And Texas is not. So this was a bigger shift for Texas, no doubt in terms of the pattern -- but the key messages that have come from Governor electing a hose have been actually very similar to some of the key messages that Governor Abbott had expressed and, frankly, consistent with messages we've been expressing, which is -- there has to be some guardrails on this development. The queues are overstated. The public is concerned.

很明顯，我們營運的大多數州在政黨領導權方面都曾相當頻繁地更替。而德州不是這樣。因此對德州而言，這次在既有模式上確實是更大的轉變——但從當選州長（Governor-elect）所傳達的關鍵訊息來看，其實與Abbott州長先前表達的一些核心訊息非常相似，坦白說，也與我們一直在傳達的訊息一致：這類開發必須有一些護欄（guardrails）。排隊申請（queues）被高估了。公眾是擔憂的。

When they talk about 75% of people don't want a data center developed in their community, I don't even know what the question really means because the community might mean next door. But if they're developed by our power plant like the 1 that we're developing next to our Comanche Peak plant, there was a town hall held this week.

當他們說有75%的人不希望在他們的社區開發資料中心時，我甚至不確定這個問題真正的含義，因為「社區」可能是指隔壁。但如果是建在我們電廠旁邊，例如我們正在Comanche Peak電廠旁開發的那一座，本週就舉行了一場市民大會（town hall）。

With Amazon and members of our site, and it was very well received. That's a data center going next to an industrial facility, obviously, our nuclear power plant. Public, I don't think has a strong reaction against data centers being next to power plants. The other thing the public struggles with is, it's different to have 1 data center somewhere in the area. But if you think 10 are coming to your area, which is what happens with these overstated Qs, you get a reaction.

由Amazon以及我們場址的成員共同參與，反應非常正面。那是一座建在工業設施旁邊的資料中心，顯然就是我們的核電廠。我不認為公眾對於資料中心建在電廠旁邊會有強烈反感。公眾另一個難以接受的是：在某個區域有1座資料中心是一回事。但如果你覺得有10座要來你所在的區域——這正是這些被高估的排隊申請所造成的印象——就會引發反彈。

So I think we're all on the same page with respect to raising the bar fitting the queues and getting to the real projects that are going to move it forward. And Governor like Dinahosa on new circuits and some of her early commentary wants to see Texas grow. She just wants to see the benefits of that growth be evenly distributed as do we. So I actually view where we sit today is just clarity of some sort not having it tied us directly to an election season is going to be beneficial to taking some of the noise. I think it's been overdone, as you mentioned, James, in the last couple of days.

所以我認為我們在提高門檻、整頓排隊申請、聚焦真正會推進的專案這件事上，大家其實立場一致。而像Dinahosa州長在新迴路（new circuits）以及她一些早期評論中，也希望德州成長。她只是希望成長帶來的利益能更均衡地分配——我們也是如此。所以我其實認為，我們今天所處的位置是一種清晰度：不再直接綁在選舉季，將有助於降低一些雜音。而且如你所提到的，James，我認為過去幾天市場反應有些過度。

That doesn't change our outlook. In fact, if anything, you heard Kris talk about the back and leaning in there, it can create opportunities for Vistra. Our customer conversations, and I'll give Stacy a chance to comment on a later question because I'm sure we're going to get it. Customer conversations have been consistent throughout. And I actually think this is going to provide some opportunities to bring some of these to completion.

這並不會改變我們的展望。事實上，如果有什麼不同，你也聽到Kris談到「退一步、再更積極投入」的部分，這可能為Vistra創造機會。我們與客戶的對話——我也會讓Stacy在後面的問題中補充，因為我確定我們會被問到——與客戶的對話一直都很一致。而且我其實認為，這將提供一些機會，讓其中一些專案得以完成落地。

So overall, we're positive on the trajectory of where we can go as it relates to our business opportunities.

所以整體而言，就我們業務機會的發展軌跡來看，我們是正面的。

Michael Sullivan, Wolfe.

Michael Sullivan，Wolfe。

I want to appreciate the kind of updated free cash flow per share outlook and understand there's a bunch of assumptions. But maybe can you just help us with thinking about kind of the core power price outlook there, like just given your hedge near-term ERCOT's in pretty steep contango. So just thinking about the puts and the takes of what power prices are doing to that outlook as you step from '27 to '30.

我很感謝你們更新了每股自由現金流的展望，也理解其中包含許多假設。但你們是否能協助我們思考一下其中的核心電力價格展望？例如，考量你們近期的避險，而ERCOT近月曲線處於相當陡峭的正價差（contango）。所以想請你談談，當你們從2027年走到2030年時，電價變動對該展望的利與弊會是什麼。

Yes. And Michael, I was trying to maybe I wasn't as clear as I needed to be. We are not making any assumptions about power price recoveries. It reflects the curves as you see them as noted in our hedge profiles and just kind of stepping that forward based off public available information. Now we think the near term on this is really going to be a function of how does Texas get back into gear in terms of hooking up load.

是的。而且 Michael，我剛才想說也許我沒有表達得像我需要的那麼清楚。我們並沒有對電力價格回升做任何假設。這反映的是你在我們的避險概況中所看到的曲線，並且只是根據公開可得資訊把它往前推演。現在我們認為，短期內這件事真正會取決於德州在負載併網、讓用電端重新接上系統方面，能多快恢復運作。

We know there is load that's approved to energize, but it has not been allowed to energize. There's been the audits. As you know, there's been some permit holds at TC.

我們知道有些負載已獲准送電，但尚未被允許實際送電。也進行了稽核。如你所知，TC 那邊也有一些許可暫停。

We think by the long term, the '29, '30 period, we think we still end up in a similar place for ERCOT. So I think it's more about this near term where we see a little bit more of this pricing pressure there's a chance for ERCOT to even go better than where the curves are even out even though it is contango to go better than that from a pricing standpoint if we kind of get our mojo back, and I think we can.

我們認為從長期來看，在 2029、2030 年那段期間，ERCOT 最終仍會落在一個相近的位置。所以我覺得重點更多是在短期：我們看到一些更大的定價壓力；同時也有機會讓 ERCOT 的表現甚至優於曲線所反映的水準——即使曲線呈現正價差（contango），從價格角度仍可能比那更好——如果我們能把節奏找回來，而我認為我們可以。

And so -- but we're not making any special assumptions as it relates to get to that $24.

所以——但就達到那個 24 美元而言，我們並沒有做任何特別假設。

Okay. Great. That's very helpful. And then I just wanted to ask the latest on the contracting environment for you all, given what we've seen from some peers like on the nuclear front, we've seen Constellation continue to leverage upgrades. You have a couple of those still available yourself and then just today, some news on gas finally from someone.

好的。很棒。這非常有幫助。接著我想問一下你們目前的簽約環境最新狀況：考量到我們從一些同業看到的情況，例如在核能方面，我們看到 Constellation 持續運用升級（uprates）。你們自己也還有幾個升級選項可用；另外就在今天，也終於看到有人在天然氣方面有些消息。

So just how you're thinking about puts and takes there.

所以你們如何看待其中的利多與利空（puts and takes）。

Sure, sure. Michael, I'm going to let Stacy jump in because I'm going to send it to the person who's doing the bulk of these negotiations on a daily basis. And thanks for your question on that.

當然，當然。Michael，我先請 Stacy 來補充，因為我想把問題交給每天負責大部分談判的人。也謝謝你問到這點。

Yes. Michael, thanks for the question. We -- we've said this for a while, but we just continue to see interest in Vistra's assets and Vistra's capabilities, and we're involved in multiple conversations around our existing assets around new build. We continue to just see a large appetite for these kinds of projects. And I think you've continued to see the hyperscalers, as an example, talk about increasing their CapEx spend.

是的。Michael，謝謝你的提問。我們——我們講了一段時間了，但我們持續看到市場對 Vistra 的資產與 Vistra 的能力很有興趣；我們也正就既有資產與新建案參與多場對話。我們持續看到市場對這類專案有很大的胃納。而且我想你也持續看到，例如超大規模業者（hyperscalers）在談他們要增加資本支出（CapEx）。

So there certainly is no slowdown on that front. As typical, we're not going to comment on the timing of new deals, but we're confident in our ability to execute additional nuclear PPAs. We still have not contracted Fever Valley. We still have not contracted the second part of Comanche Peak. There's an upgrade potential at Kamunsu peak as well.

所以在那方面確實沒有放緩。照慣例，我們不會評論新交易的時點，但我們對於執行更多核能 PPA 的能力很有信心。我們仍尚未簽下 Fever Valley。我們也仍尚未簽下 Comanche Peak 的第二部分。另外在 Kamunsu peak 也有升級潛力。

So we have a lot of megawatts still to contract on nuclear we're in a number of conversations about our existing gas plants as well as new gas build, and we feel confident on our ability to execute there. And in fact, in this quarter, we announced a PPA for our existing Odessa gas plant in Texas. So I think we've demonstrated an ability to execute on existing gas plants, and we believe there's more to come on that front as well. The load interconnection process does continue to be a timing constraint on particularly the gas asset projects because for those types of PPAs, the customer guys typically want a grid connection. And so that's why we continue to advocate for spinning the Qs and raising the bar on the load interconnection queue so that we can begin to get approval for load interconnections that would support additional gas plant deals as well.

所以我們在核能方面仍有很多兆瓦數可以簽約；我們也就既有燃氣電廠以及新建燃氣案，進行了多場對話，並且對我們的執行能力很有信心。事實上，在本季我們宣布了德州既有 Odessa 燃氣電廠的一份 PPA。所以我認為我們已展現出在既有燃氣電廠上執行的能力，而我們也相信在這方面還會有更多進展。負載併網流程的確仍是時間上的限制，特別是對燃氣資產專案而言，因為這類 PPA 的客戶通常希望先有電網連接。因此我們才持續倡議要加速處理排隊（spinning the Qs），並提高負載併網排隊（load interconnection queue）的門檻，讓我們能開始取得負載併網的核准，進而也能支撐更多燃氣電廠交易。

So we just feel really good about our opportunity set. It's busier than ever. And it allowed -- the fact that we have so many opportunities in our pipeline allows us to also be selective about the counterparties that we work with, about the projects that we work on. And so we really prioritize the opportunities that we have the best chance of execution on as well as the ones that meet, of course, our return targets and our economic objectives. So we feel really good about it.

所以我們對我們的機會集合感覺非常好。比以往任何時候都更忙。而且——我們管線中有這麼多機會，也讓我們能更有選擇性地挑選合作對手方、挑選要合作的專案。因此我們會優先推進那些我們最有把握能落地執行的機會，以及當然也符合我們報酬目標與經濟目標的機會。所以我們對此感覺非常好。

We're excited about the months and years to come to serve these customers.

我們也很期待未來幾個月與幾年能為這些客戶提供服務。

Yes. And Michael, I'm just going to add real quick as a supportive point to what Stacy is saying is that over the course of the year, there's also been a lot of concern about how will the PJM rules evolve? And is that going to limit our ability to do contracting with existing or even co-location we've seen through time, these things never play out at the level that the initial concern is. So there's usually an immediate reaction, and then we work our way through it. I think that's happening right now in PJM -- and so I do think that the opportunity set with existing assets, even though it does still take time to get through the study process, but is trying to accelerate that as well.

是的。Michael，我再很快補充一點來支持 Stacy 的說法：今年以來，市場也有很多擔憂，像是 PJM 規則會如何演變？那會不會限制我們與既有資產進行簽約，甚至是我們過去看到的共址（co-location）？但隨著時間推進，這些事情通常不會像一開始擔心的那樣發展。所以通常會先有立即反應，然後我們再一步步把問題解決。我認為 PJM 現在正發生這種情況——因此我確實認為，既有資產的機會集合仍然存在；即使研究流程仍需要時間，但也正在嘗試加速。

So I do think it's been choppy. It's probably choppier than anybody would like. But when you see that settle, the dust settle, the opportunity set continues to be clear and that's why we're bullish about being able to bring some of these across the finish line.

所以我確實認為目前有些顛簸。可能比任何人希望的都更顛簸。但當情勢穩定、塵埃落定後，機會集合仍然很清楚，這也是為什麼我們看多能把其中一些案子推到終點線。

Rinny Singh, Bank of America.

Rinny Singh，美國銀行。

I guess to just add on to the previous question. As you think about these customer negotiations, and you mentioned that greater interconfection is a key constraint. How do you think about the economics for them and then the willingness to be flexible or at additionality, What's, I guess, the bars that and the conversations you're having on that front?

我想延續上一個問題再問一下。當你們思考這些客戶談判時，你提到更大的併網能力是一個關鍵限制。你們如何看待他們的經濟性，以及他們在彈性或「額外性」（additionality）方面的意願？我想問的是，你們在這方面的門檻是什麼、對話內容大概是什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Randy, for the question. So these customers are hyperscalers as well as the model companies and other data center and developers. They're all somewhat unique in their priorities and their wishes for the types of projects that they want to work on. So it's really hard to just group it all into 1 bucket.

是的。Randy，謝謝你的提問。這些客戶包括超大規模業者（hyperscalers）、模型公司，以及其他資料中心與開發商。他們在優先事項與對專案類型的偏好上都各有不同。所以很難把所有人都歸在同一個籃子裡。

But I would say -- they all -- 1 consistent theme is they all really do want to be on the grid as quickly as they can. But I think the grid interconnection process across our markets, which has been slower than anyone wants it to be, does -- has resulted in customers expressing a lot of interest in Bridge solutions.

但我會說——他們都有——一個一致的主題是：他們都非常希望能盡快上網（接入電網）。但我認為我們各個市場的電網併網流程一直比任何人希望的都慢——這也使得客戶對「過渡方案」（Bridge solutions）表達了很高的興趣。

And so you will see and you have seen projects that will start with a behind-the-meter solution until there can be a grade connection. And so that obviously is an expensive -- a more expensive solution for these customers than just starting with the grid connection. And so they certainly are showing a willingness to pay for that. From Vistra's perspective, any project that we do really just needs to -- needs to meet our return thresholds, which we've expressed as mid-teens returns or higher, and that's what we go after, and that's what we've been able to achieve and better -- so that's how we think about the economic opportunity there.

因此你會看到、而且你也已經看到一些專案會先採用表後（behind-the-meter）方案，直到能取得電網連接。而這對客戶而言，顯然比一開始就接入電網更昂貴——是一個成本更高的方案。所以他們確實展現出願意為此付費的意願。從 Vistra 的角度來看，我們做的任何專案都必須——必須達到我們的報酬門檻；我們已表達過是中段十幾%的報酬率或更高，我們就是追求這個，也一直能達到甚至更好——這就是我們看待這個經濟機會的方式。

In terms of flexibility, the customers have really come a long way in being willing and able to consider being flexible we were very pleased to see that FERC struck down PJM's Ira's proposal, which was going to require customers to bring brand-new generation capacity megawatt for megawatt for any new load that they brought. And we consistently said over time that that's not the right way to approach the flexibility question. These customers are willing to be flexible. But as FERC recognized discriminating against existing resources on the grid by requiring a strict BYOD policy is not really the right way to encourage resource adequacy and reliability on the grade today.

就彈性而言，客戶在願意且有能力考慮採取彈性作法方面確實已經走了很長一段路；我們很高興看到 FERC 否決了 PJM 的 Ira 提案，該提案原本將要求客戶對其新增負載所帶來的任何新負載，必須以兆瓦對兆瓦（megawatt for megawatt）的方式帶來全新的發電容量。而我們一直以來都表示，那並不是處理彈性議題的正確方式。這些客戶願意保持彈性。但正如 FERC 所認知的，透過要求嚴格的 BYOD 政策而歧視電網上既有資源，並不是在當前情況下鼓勵資源充足性與電網可靠性的正確方式。

And so we think the elimination of the IRS proposal really has given customers the additional clarity that they need to move forward with projects where -- they have a variety of options. They can bring some additionality with new generation. They can choose instead to just bring backup generation and connect to an existing plant so that they can be available during emergencies for the grid, which is what Amazon is doing at Community Peak. They can also choose to just curtail their load. And so they -- those choices should be theirs to make and the markets, in our view, should support the customer choice as to how to make sure that they can be flexible and support the grid during times of need.

因此我們認為，取消 IRS 提案確實為客戶提供了他們推進專案所需的額外明確性——他們有多種選項。他們可以透過新發電帶來一些額外性（additionality）。他們也可以選擇僅帶來備援發電並連接到既有電廠，使其在電網緊急情況下可用——這正是 Amazon 在 Comanche Peak 所做的。他們也可以選擇僅削減其負載。因此——這些選擇應由他們自行決定，而市場在我們看來應支持客戶選擇如何確保其具備彈性並在需要時支援電網。

Very helpful. And then I guess, can I just ask on the Texas legislature. Jim, I think you mentioned that all these governors and they just kind of want these deals to be done right in a respectable way and benefiting the community. So as we get to the Texas legislative process, what do you think it's kind of going to be addressed? And what do you expect, I guess, to see to, I guess, get to this more realistic view of what can actually come on the grid?

非常有幫助。接著我想問一下德州立法機關的部分。Jim，我記得你提到這些州長們基本上只是希望這些交易能以正確、體面且能讓社區受益的方式完成。所以當我們進入德州的立法程序時，你認為大概會處理哪些議題？以及你預期會看到什麼，才能讓大家對電網實際上能接入哪些資源形成更務實的看法？

Yes, Rinny, thank you. I think well before we even get to the lead session, there's a process underway, which we expect will continue, which is the audit process that Governor Abbott started, and there's been some additional RFIs issued to large loads to complete the questions and complete the information being sought -- whether that leads to some of these projects dropping out of the queue or not, I don't know. But the intent, I think, of that audit and ultimately, the review that's being done is to make sure that complete applications are being used to then establish this back 0. Obviously, the permit hold that's been in place. We expect in what it was initially put in place that it might be lifted as part of the sort of mid-December timing for completing the audit work.

是的，Rinny，謝謝。我認為在我們甚至進入立法會期之前，就已經有一個正在進行的流程，而且我們預期會持續下去，也就是 Abbott 州長啟動的稽核流程；此外也已向大型負載發出一些額外的 RFI（資訊請求），以完成相關問題並補齊所要求的資訊——這是否會導致其中一些專案退出排隊序列，我不確定。但我認為該稽核以及最終正在進行的審查，其目的在於確保使用完整的申請資料，進而建立這個 batch 0。顯然，目前已實施的許可暫停措施。我們預期，依其最初設置時的規劃，可能會在完成稽核工作的約 12 月中旬時點作為一部分而解除。

Again, back to the comments we've made on this call and previous calls, we would be comfortable if the bar continues to be raised on projects so that doing projects the right way is rewarded and that those projects get higher allocations and they get moved to earlier in the interconnection process. So even before we get into the session, I think the business as usual, could potentially thin some of this by this mid-December time frame. I think the 765 kV projects are going to continue to move forward. I think that's important because that's part of the backbone of being able to energize some of the batch 0, not all of them, but some of the bat 0 projects.

再次回到我們在本次電話會議以及先前電話會議中所做的評論，如果對專案的門檻持續提高，讓以正確方式推動專案者獲得回報，並使這些專案獲得更高的分配額度、在併網流程中更早推進，我們會感到安心。因此，即使在進入會期之前，照常運作的流程也可能在 12 月中旬這個時間點之前，讓其中一些（專案）被篩掉。我認為 765 kV 專案將會持續推進。我認為這很重要，因為那是能夠為部分（不是全部）batch 0 專案送電的骨幹之一。

I think if the 765 keep moving forward, and I think the third east-west line has a chance to be approved here by the end of the year by the PUC. That now establishes the foundation for the load being able to be hooked up and served with existing generation on the system as some new generation continues to be built out. You're then going to want that load to come on to the system and share in the cost of the 765. And that's also part of the focus of the Public Utility Commission is to create a tariff that large loads would be committing to that would have some minimum take requirements and a duration requirements so that costs don't get pushed on to residential customers -- so there's actually a lot already underway with the PUC and ERCOT that I think is going to set the stage heading into the legislative session that I think will give some comfort to lawmakers and the governor elect that the PUC and ERCOT are thinking about some of these issues.

我認為如果 765 kV 持續推進，而且我認為第三條東西向線路有機會在年底前獲 PUC 核准。這就為負載能夠接入並由系統內既有發電供電奠定了基礎，同時一些新的發電仍在持續建置。接著你會希望該負載接入系統，並分攤 765 kV 的成本。這也是公用事業委員會（Public Utility Commission）的重點之一：制定一個大型負載將承諾遵守的費率（tariff），其中會包含最低用電量（minimum take）要求與期限（duration）要求，以避免成本被轉嫁到住宅用戶——因此 PUC 與 ERCOT 其實已經在推進很多工作，我認為這將為進入立法會期奠定基礎，並讓立法者與當選州長對 PUC 與 ERCOT 正在思考這些議題感到更安心。

And then what the legislature ends up deciding to do is hard to say. We don't have a crystal ball. Obviously, with sort of a split house incentive it's unclear what legislative environment we're going to actually be in. But what I like about this issue is there's not really that much of an argument happening between Republicans and Democrats on this issue. This issue has general concern for both parties to get it right.

至於立法機關最後會決定怎麼做，很難說。我們沒有水晶球。顯然，在某種「分裂的眾議院」激勵結構下，目前不清楚我們實際將處於什麼樣的立法環境。但我喜歡這個議題的一點是，在這個議題上，共和黨與民主黨之間其實沒有太多爭論。這個議題讓兩黨都普遍關切要把事情做對。

And so whether they let PUC at ERCOT more manage that or they decide to be a little bit more hands on during the legislative session I think it's too early to call. But the direction of travel is to raise the bar and do high-quality projects. And we're supportive of that. And I think the legislature is going to look for ways to add to what the PUC and ERCOT are doing if they don't think it's sufficient. But we're supportive.

因此，他們是讓 PUC 與 ERCOT 更主導地去管理，或是在立法會期中決定更積極介入，我認為現在下結論還太早。但整體方向是提高門檻、推動高品質專案。我們支持這樣的方向。而且我認為，如果立法機關認為 PUC 與 ERCOT 的作為仍不足，他們會尋找方法在其基礎上再加碼。但我們是支持的。

We're supportive, and we've been supportive of raising the bar.

我們支持，而且我們一直支持提高門檻。

David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

David Arcaro，摩根士丹利。

Maybe a little bit following on that line of questions. I was curious, to the extent there is any effort to move forward with something like a moratorium on data centers next year in Texas. I was wondering how you're thinking about whether there could be any risk to the Comanche Peak contract and construction that's going on there? And maybe more broadly, whether that could impact some of your efforts in the batch 0 process if there's potential risk of delay or push out there?

也許延續剛才那一系列問題。我想了解的是，如果德州明年確實有任何推動類似「資料中心暫停令（moratorium）」的努力。我想知道你們如何看待這是否可能對 Comanche Peak 合約以及那裡正在進行的施工帶來任何風險？以及更廣泛地說，如果那裡存在延遲或往後推遲的潛在風險，是否會影響你們在 batch 0 流程中的一些工作？

Yes, David, I'll tell you, if Texas decides to just go down a moratorium, it would be problematic, I think, for lots of customers, not just our Comanche Peak project. I don't know what form that would actually take. So that would take some potential legislative activity, I think, to have something that would create that type of a significant limiter -- as we noted, construction started with Comanche Peak, and we expect high-quality projects to move forward. So I think it's more about raising the bar that I think the conceptual moratorium. I mean you heard the governor elect say, she want Texas to grow.

是的，David，我告訴你，如果德州真的走向暫停令，我認為這對很多客戶都會是個問題，不只是我們的 Comanche Peak 專案。我不知道那實際上會採取什麼形式。因此我認為那可能需要一些立法行動，才會形成那種重大的限制——如我們所提，Comanche Peak 已經開工，我們也預期高品質專案會繼續推進。所以我認為重點更在於提高門檻，而不是概念上的暫停令。我的意思是，你也聽到當選州長說，她希望德州成長。

The moratorium, I think where this language has come in, obviously, even audits were kind of viewed as on moratorium.

我認為「暫停令」這個說法之所以出現，顯然是因為即便是稽核也有點被視為一種暫停令。

Any time you've got to study something in clear a bar, it does take some time to do that. But I have not heard -- I have not heard the governor elect and I haven't heard the legislature say they do not want Texas to have any of this load. So clearly, if someone changed their mind and the whole legislature decided to go along with it, that would be difficult, right, for us as a power company, but certainly difficult for people that are bringing hundreds of billions of dollars of capital to the state of Texas. And I just think that is where the conversations just kind of continue to sort of faster a little bit out of concern.

任何時候你必須研究某件事並釐清門檻，確實都需要一些時間。但我沒有聽到——我沒有聽到當選州長，也沒有聽到立法機關說他們不希望德州擁有任何這類負載。所以很明顯，如果有人改變主意，而整個立法機關也決定跟進，那對我們這種電力公司而言會很困難，對把數千億美元資本帶到德州的人而言當然也會很困難。而我認為這就是為什麼出於擔憂，相關對話仍在持續發酵、並且有點加速。

That is not the conversations we're having with leaders, and it's not the conversations we're having with members that are returning for this upcoming session. So I just don't entertain that, David, because I really just think that's a bridge too far from where the dialogue is at this point?

那並不是我們與領導層正在進行的對話，也不是我們與即將回來參加這次會期的成員正在進行的對話。所以我不會去討論那個，David，因為我真的認為，那與目前對話所處的位置相比，已經跨得太遠了？

Got it. Yes. That's helpful. If that makes sense. And then maybe shifting over to PJM.

了解。是的。這很有幫助。如果這樣說得通的話。那接著也許轉到 PJM。

I was wondering if you might be able to give your latest maybe progress in thinking around the RDP and some of your bilateral efforts there. What's -- what are the prospects for those? Have those changed as the timing has shifted kind of into next year?

我想請問你是否能分享一下你們最近在 RDP 方面的思考進展，以及你們在那邊推動的一些雙邊（bilateral）努力。那些的前景如何？隨著時程往後延到明年，這些有改變嗎？

Sure. I'm going to let Stacy comment on that, David. I think the -- I'll just say that at the highest level, we've been supportive of the emphasis on bilaterals and markets moving towards contracting for capacity and energy and not being as dependent on a single clearing price of a centralize auction. And I think the pushout of the RVP a little bit from a timing standpoint can help facilitate some of those bilateral conversations. But even if it's not to new projects, just what we've already done with Meta what we're doing with other conversations is contracting even with existing.

當然。我會請 Stacy 來回應這個問題，David。我想——我先從最高層次說，我們一直支持把重點放在雙邊合約，以及市場朝向以合約方式採購容量與電能，而不是那麼依賴集中式拍賣的單一出清價格。我也認為，從時程角度把 RVP 稍微往後延，有助於促成一些雙邊對話。但即便不是針對新專案，就我們已經與 Meta 做的、以及我們與其他對象正在談的，其實也包含與既有資產進行簽約。

I just think that starts to put the onus on the load serving entities like Vistra.

我只是認為，這開始把責任更多地放在像 Vistra 這樣的負載服務實體（load serving entities）身上。

And I think that's a responsibility that we accept in serving customers from residential to large commercial industrial and data center. So all of that from a theme standpoint, we're supportive of. And Stacy, I'll let you comment about how we're thinking about the bilateral process.

而我認為，這是我們願意承擔的責任，因為我們服務的客戶從住宅到大型商業、工業以及資料中心都有。所以就主題而言，我們支持這一切。Stacy，我就讓你來談談我們如何看待雙邊流程。

Yes. Thanks for the question. We continue -- we do continue to have a lot of bilateral discussions in PJM. As I mentioned earlier, I think the FERC striking down the iris proposal actually was helpful in that it kind of removed 1 layer of uncertainty for customers about how they might want to contract and kind of what the rules of the road might be around that. And so I think that was helpful pushing out the RBP to next year is also helpful because it just gives more time for those bilateral discussions to really result in agreements.

好的，謝謝你的提問。我們持續——我們確實持續在 PJM 進行大量的雙邊討論。如我先前提到的，我認為 FERC 否決 iris 提案其實是有幫助的，因為它等於移除了客戶在考慮如何簽約、以及相關「遊戲規則」可能是什麼時的一層不確定性。因此我認為那是有幫助的；把 RBP 延到明年也同樣有幫助，因為這只是給這些雙邊討論更多時間，讓它們真正落地成為協議。

And also more time, frankly, for anyone who's thinking about building new generation in PJM to understand what the network upgrade costs might be and the generation interconnection cost might be, which was a concern we had expressed about the timing -- the previous timing of the RBP in September is that there just wasn't a lot of certainty about what those costs are.

同時也坦白說，對於任何正在考慮在 PJM 興建新發電資產的人而言，也有更多時間去了解網路升級成本（network upgrade costs）以及發電併網成本（generation interconnection cost）可能是多少；這正是我們先前對時程所表達的疑慮——先前把 RBP 排在 9 月，問題在於對這些成本並沒有太多確定性。

So it's hard to build into your contracting process, you don't know what those costs are. So I think all of that is positive. I do think that customers still have a big incentive to do bilateral contracts in relation to the RBP because, as you know, if you have a bilateral contract, you can present it to PJM as a means of reducing the ultimate procurement target for the RVP and therefore, reducing a customer's cost allocation responsibility as well for the RVP. So I think we'll we're optimistic that we'll see a number of bilateral contracts in the market that are presented to reduce the ultimate RVP target. And frankly, the smaller the target is the better because it means that the bilateral contracts have really satisfied the forecasted need as opposed to using this kind of bifurcated RBP process, which, as a matter of principle, we typically wouldn't support, but we think it's going to end up being small enough that it mitigates that risk.

所以你很難把它納入你的簽約流程，因為你不知道那些成本是多少。因此我認為這些都是正面的。我也確實認為，客戶仍然有很強的誘因去做與 RBP 相關的雙邊合約，因為如你所知，如果你有雙邊合約，你可以把它提交給 PJM，作為降低 RVP 最終採購目標的一種方式，進而也降低客戶對 RVP 的成本分攤責任。所以我想我們——我們樂觀地認為，市場上會出現不少雙邊合約，並被提交用來降低最終的 RVP 目標。而且坦白說，目標越小越好，因為那代表雙邊合約確實滿足了預測需求，而不是依賴這種分割式（bifurcated）的 RBP 流程；就原則而言，我們通常不會支持這種流程，但我們認為最後規模會小到足以降低那個風險。

So we continue to have active conversations about uprates and other opportunities across our fleet as a means to reduce that RBP ultimate target. So we feel good about that.

因此，我們持續就機組增容（uprates）以及我們機組組合（fleet）中的其他機會進行積極對話，以作為降低 RBP 最終目標的一種方式。所以我們對此感覺良好。

Paul Zimbardo, Jefferies.

Jefferies 的 Paul Zimbardo。

I appreciate it. And apologies if I missed it earlier. The timing change on Helix investment potential, if you could discuss that a little bit. And I know you've mentioned a few times the mid-teens target returns, and I know IRRs are not the same as free cash flow yield, but just using your $24 in the stock price, you get to a number higher than mid-teens on buying back your stock. So just curious if kind of your return thresholds have changed with the stock price.

感謝。如果我先前漏聽了也先致歉。關於 Helix 投資潛在時程的變動，能否請你稍微談一下？另外我知道你們多次提到中十幾（mid-teens）的目標報酬率；我也知道 IRR 不等同於自由現金流殖利率，但如果以你們股價 24 美元來看，回購自家股票算出來的數字會高於中十幾。所以我想了解一下，隨著股價變動，你們的報酬門檻是否有所改變？

Yes. On the second one, I think we view the $1 billion a year, obviously, that's something that we view as commitment that we've made. Obviously, it's not set in stone, but I would say it's pretty close. We continue to weigh all projects against our share buybacks. And so as our stock price has come under has been challenged the last couple of days.

是的。先談第二個問題，我想我們看待每年 10 億美元——顯然，這是我們所做出的承諾。當然，它不是一成不變，但我會說已經非常接近固定。我們持續把所有專案與股票回購做比較衡量。因此，當我們的股價在過去幾天面臨壓力、受到挑戰時。

I mean that moves the needle. But we also have a lot of projects, as we said in the prepared remarks that are with existing assets that have little cost for us and have extremely high returns.

我的意思是，那確實會影響決策。但我們也有很多專案，如同我們在事先準備的講稿中所說，這些專案是基於既有資產，對我們而言成本很低，而且報酬極高。

Some of the deals that we've struck have almost 0 are basically 0 cost and we get premium on those transactions. So we're going to continue to look at opportunities. We're going to still try to stay relatively balanced, but we do compare all opportunities against share buybacks.

我們達成的一些交易幾乎是零成本——基本上就是零成本——而且我們在那些交易上取得溢價。所以我們會持續尋找機會。我們仍會努力維持相對平衡，但我們確實會把所有機會拿來與股票回購比較。

And Paul, what I would add is these customer conversations they can be 6 months, 12 months in duration. Our stock might move $30 in 2 days. We're not going to work with long-term customer relationships and negotiate around 1 or 2 a megawatt hour trying to just react to the stock buyback opportunity in the moment. This is a franchise, and we have a reputation, and we're going to build a book of business that will also be a contracted book of business, which I think also lowers the discount rate ultimately. So it's a little different in Horizon to be thinking about it relative to our free cash flow yield and a buyback at a point in time.

Paul，我想補充的是，這些客戶對話可能會持續 6 個月、12 個月。我們的股價可能在 2 天內波動 30 美元。我們不會為了當下回購股票的機會，就在長期客戶關係上、或在談判時為了每兆瓦時 1 或 2 美元去斤斤計較、試圖即時反應。這是一個特許經營（franchise），我們有聲譽；我們會建立一個業務組合，而那也會是一個已簽約的業務組合，我認為這最終也會降低折現率。所以在思考這件事時，時間視野（Horizon）與在某一時間點拿自由現金流殖利率去對比回購，是有些不同的。

Having said that, you can bet that's the conversation we have as a management team and with our Board, and that's why the board was comfortable authorizing a larger share repurchase to take us through that 2028 period because it's not lost on us that as we think about what are we going to do to build that next incremental value the hurdles do rise when you have this kind of an alternative for the cash.

話雖如此，你可以確定這就是我們管理團隊以及與董事會之間會討論的議題；也正因如此，董事會才會放心授權更大規模的股票回購，讓我們能一路執行到 2028 年，因為我們並沒有忽視：當我們思考要做什麼來打造下一個增量價值時，若現金有這樣的替代用途，門檻確實會提高。

So it's -- there's a tension there. The last thing I'll say is on Helix, that's really about a draw schedule. So Helix is not about us just pushing cash to them to sit. It's what are the projects that Helix is driving where they're going to have a capital call. We're working with Helix on a number of projects.

所以——這之間確實存在拉扯。我最後要說的是關於 Helix，那主要是關於資金撥付時程（draw schedule）。所以 Helix 並不是我們把現金直接撥給他們放著不用。而是 Helix 正在推動哪些專案、他們何時會有資本募集通知（capital call）。我們正與 Helix 在多個專案上合作。

So we're just assuming that from a timing standpoint, it's going to fall more into next year than this year. But that's not surprising, just given all the things we've been talking about how the political environment has slowed down some of the activities in any of the markets really, and we see that picking back up, and that's why we moved the capital assumption.

因此，我們只是預期就時程而言，資金動用會更多落在明年而不是今年。但這並不令人意外，考量到我們一直在談的各種因素：政治環境確實讓各個市場的一些活動放緩；我們也看到活動會再度回升，這也是為什麼我們調整了資本投入的假設。

Okay. No, that's very helpful. And I know it's a tougher 1 to answer, just given the volatility I appreciate that. And then the last one, just to check in. I know you kind of -- I don't want to put words in your mouth, it sounds like you acknowledge maybe softer power pricing dynamic in Texas in the near-term years.

好的。不，這非常有幫助。我知道這個問題比較難回答，畢竟波動性很大，我很感謝。然後最後一個問題，想再確認一下。我知道你有點——我不想把話塞到你嘴裡，但聽起來你承認德州在短期幾年內電力定價動態可能會偏疲弱。

Does that influence kind of the hedging profile that you pursue, whether kind of more hedges in -- I know you have a lot in Jan 7, but maybe a '28, '29.

這是否會影響你們所採取的避險配置，例如在——我知道你們在 1 月 7 日有很多，但也許是 '28、'29 年的避險？

It does, Paul. In fact, with the 78% hedged for 28, we are much less hedged in ERCOT than the 78%. So we do not look at the curves for 2028 and feel a need to be moving a lot of power at this point in time. And I do think, as we see what the pace of play is for hooking up load in 2027 and seeing what the pent-up demand is because the utilities are reporting on their calls to pent-up demand that they see. Some of it is actually not AI-related.

會的，Paul。事實上，雖然 28 年我們整體避險比例是 78%，但在 ERCOT 的避險程度遠低於 78%。因此，我們不會看 2028 年的曲線就覺得此時此刻需要大量鎖定電力。而且我確實認為，隨著我們觀察 2027 年接入負載的推進速度，以及公用事業公司在電話會議上所提到的他們看到的被壓抑需求（pent-up demand）有多大。其中有一部分其實並非與 AI 相關。

It's manufacturing, it's government, it's oil and gas. If we start to see that pick up pace, then I think you might see some response in 2028, and we're certainly more open in 2028 in ERCOT than we are in the other markets.

而是製造業、政府，以及油氣產業。如果我們開始看到那個速度加快，那我認為你可能會在 2028 年看到一些反應；而我們在 ERCOT 的 2028 年部位確實比其他市場更為開放。

Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

Jeremy Tonet，摩根大通。

This is Gatan Reddy on for Jeremy. I think it's been hit on a couple of times, but I just wanted to ask, PJM versus ERCOT, is there any change you're seeing in terms of the customer interest, 1 versus the other? And if that's I guess, just broadly how that's evolved post election.

我是代替 Jeremy 的 Gatan Reddy。我想這個問題已被提到幾次，但我還是想問一下：PJM 相較於 ERCOT，你們看到客戶興趣在兩者之間有任何變化嗎？以及我想更廣泛地說，選後這種情況是如何演變的？

Well, I'm going to let Stacy take that one. It's a lot to digest just postelection. But maybe leading into the election and post election, Stacy, you provide some context on the relative attractiveness.

好，我把這題交給 Stacy 回答。選後要消化的資訊很多。但也許從選前到選後，Stacy，你可以就相對吸引力提供一些背景。

Yes. Look, Texas continues to be attractive to these customers. Any given day, of course, they're looking at the political environment. They're looking at some of the guardrail proposals and they're trying to decide what the risk profile is across these different markets. But frankly, almost every market in every state that we're operating in as well as states we're not operating in, where they may be pursuing projects has been looking at these similar types of guardrails.

好的。你看，德州對這些客戶仍然具有吸引力。當然，在任何一天，他們都會關注政治環境。他們也在看一些「護欄」（guardrail）提案，並試圖判斷在不同市場之間的風險輪廓。但坦白說，幾乎我們營運的每個市場、每個州，以及我們未營運但他們可能在推進專案的州，都在看類似類型的護欄。

So across the country, states and local bodies are looking at things like water usage and land usage and tax incentives.

因此在全國各地，州政府與地方機構都在關注例如用水量、土地使用，以及稅收激勵等議題。

So I really think I know the election was a surprise to some in Texas, in particular. But I really think if you take a step back, there's not a higher risk profile in Texas versus other places that are considering the same types of guardrails. And in fact, we believe Texas continues to be 1 of the easiest places to get things built and will continue to be so in the long run. So leading up to the election, we did not see a change in customer behavior of Texas versus PJM. We just got questions about both, and we continue to get questions about both.

所以我確實認為，選舉結果對德州、尤其對部分人而言是個意外。但我真的認為，如果你退一步看，德州的風險輪廓並不比其他正在考慮同類護欄的地方更高。而且事實上，我們相信德州仍然是最容易把事情建起來的地方之一，長期也會如此。因此在選前，我們沒有看到客戶在德州相對於 PJM 的行為出現改變；我們只是同時收到關於兩者的問題，而且現在也仍然同時收到關於兩者的問題。

Ohio, as an example, had a change of administration as well, and they're in PJM.

例如俄亥俄州也更換了政府，而它是在 PJM。

So again, I don't see Texas as standing out as peculiar in this regard. And I think customers across the country are just looking at their opportunities, looking at number one, speed to power -- number two, where can they be welcomed into the communities. And number three, how much political support are they going to get. And so I think that continues to be the case, and everybody is trying to assess their alternatives. But for Vistra, the good news is we operate across almost 20 states in all the competitive markets, and we have opportunities in all of those markets to serve these customers.

所以再說一次，我不認為德州在這方面特別異常。我認為全國的客戶都在評估他們的機會，首先看的是供電速度（speed to power）——第二，他們在哪裡能被社區所歡迎。第三，他們能獲得多少政治支持。所以我認為情況仍然如此，每個人都在試圖評估他們的替代方案。但對 Vistra 來說，好消息是我們在所有競爭性市場橫跨將近 20 個州營運，而我們在所有這些市場都有機會為這些客戶提供服務。

So we really try to follow their lead and also help them navigate some of these political and regulatory hurdles that we've all been dealing with.

因此我們真的會跟隨他們的步伐，同時也協助他們應對我們一直在面對的這些政治與監管障礙。

I think the fact that we had the election and it's now over and the results are clear. As Jim referenced earlier, is actually a help to us and it will be a help to us in getting a lot of our projects across the finish line because we can now kind of understand a little bit more about what the rules of the road are. But to have -- we'll continue to have regulation that comes into play. And the kinds of customers that we deal with, and this is kind of with reference to my earlier comment about us being able to be a bit choosy about the customers we work with the customers that we work with, they're going to clear this higher bar that policymakers are putting into place. And that's 1 reason we advocate to raise the bar because our projects, like the 1 we have with Amazon, the 1 we have the PPAs that we have with Meta.

我認為選舉已經結束、結果也已明朗，這一點——如 Jim 先前提到的——其實對我們有幫助。而且這也將有助於我們把許多專案推到終點線，因為我們現在可以更清楚地理解「遊戲規則」是什麼。但未來仍會有監管因素介入。而我們所接觸的這類客戶——這也呼應我先前提到我們能在合作客戶上更有選擇性——我們合作的客戶將能跨過政策制定者所設定的更高門檻。這也是我們主張提高門檻的原因之一，因為我們的專案，例如我們與 Amazon 的那個專案、以及我們與 Meta 簽訂的 PPA 專案。

Our projects clear those -- all of those bars by far. And so we're not concerned about the regulation. We just want certainty and clarity to continue to come and then our projects will be able to move forward.

我們的專案遠遠超過那些——所有那些門檻。因此我們不擔心監管。我們只是希望能持續有確定性與清晰度，這樣我們的專案就能繼續推進。

This concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Jim Burke for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。接下來我會把電話交回給 Jim Burke 做結語。

Thank you, everybody, for joining. I especially want to thank our Vistra team for their continued execution and service to our customers and communities. Once again, we're going to welcome the Cogentrix team and for our investors, we know this is a very dynamic time, and our team is very focused on delivering. We do appreciate your interest in Vistra, and we hope to see you in person soon. Have a great rest of your day and a nice weekend.

感謝各位參與。我特別要感謝我們 Vistra 團隊持續的執行力，以及對客戶與社區的服務。再次地，我們將歡迎 Cogentrix 團隊加入；對投資人而言，我們知道這是一個非常動態的時期，而我們的團隊非常專注於交付成果。我們很感謝各位對 Vistra 的關注，也希望不久後能與各位面對面見面。祝各位今天剩下的時間愉快，週末也愉快。

The call has concluded. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

本次電話會議已結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以掛線。