Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Verisk Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions). For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Verisk Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Stacey Brodbar. Ms. Brodbar, please go ahead.

各位好，歡迎參加Verisk 2023年第三季財報電話會議。本次電話會議正在錄音。 （操作說明）接下來，我將把會議交給Verisk投資者關係主管Stacey Brodbar女士，請她致開幕詞並進行介紹。 Brodbar女士，請開始吧。

Thank you, Cheryl, and good day, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for a discussion of our third quarter 2023 financial results. On the call today are Lee Shavel, Verisk's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Elizabeth Mann, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝 Cheryl，大家好。感謝各位今天參加我們關於 2023 年第三季財務表現的討論會。今天出席電話會議的有 Verisk 總裁兼執行長 Lee Shavel 和財務長 Elizabeth Mann。

The earnings release referenced on this call as well as our traditional quarterly earnings presentation and the associated 10-Q can be found in the Investors section of our website, verisk.com. The earnings release has also been attached to an 8-K that we have furnished to the SEC. A replay of this call will be available for 30 days on our website and by dial-in.

本次電話會議中提及的獲利報告以及我們傳統的季度獲利簡報和相關的10-Q表格，均可在公司網站verisk.com的「投資者關係」欄位中找到。該盈利報告也已附在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的8-K表格中。本次電話會議的錄音回放將在公司網站和電話接入平台上保留30天。

As set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, I will remind everyone today's call may include forward-looking statements about Verisk's future performance, including those related to our financial guidance. Actual performance could differ materially from what is suggested by our comments today. Information about the factors that could affect future performance is contained in our recent SEC filings.

正如今天發布的財報中更詳細的闡述，我在此提醒各位，今天的電話會議可能包含有關Verisk未來業績的前瞻性陳述，包括與我們的財務指引相關的陳述。實際業績可能與我們今天所作的陳述有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的因素的信息，請參閱我們近期提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件。

Finally, I'd also like to remind everyone that the financial results for recent dispositions are included in our consolidated and GAAP results, but are excluded from all organic constant currency growth figures. A reconciliation of reported and historic non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call is provided in our 8-K and today's earnings presentation posted on the Investors section of our website, verisk.com. However, we are not able to provide a reconciliation of projected adjusted EBITDA as adjusted EBITDA margin to the most directly comparable expected GAAP results because of the unreasonably high effort and unpredictability of estimating certain items that are excluded from projected non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin, including, for example, tax consequences, acquisition-related costs, gains and loss from dispositions and other nonrecurring expenses, the effect of which may be significant.

最後，我還想提醒大家，近期資產處置的財務結果已計入我們的合併財務報表和GAAP財務報表，但未計入所有以固定匯率計算的有機增長數據。本次電話會議討論的已報告和歷史非GAAP財務指標的調節表已在我們的8-K表格和今天發佈於公司網站verisk.com投資者關係欄目的盈利演示文稿中提供。然而，由於估算某些已從預期非GAAP調整後EBITDA和調整後EBITDA利潤率中排除的項目（例如，稅務影響、收購相關成本、資產處置損益和其他非經常性支出）的工作量過大且難以預測，我們無法提供預計調整後EBITDA（以調整後EBITDA利潤率表示）與最直接調節的預期表。這些項目的影響可能很大。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Lee Shavel.

現在我想把電話交給李沙維爾。

Good morning, and thank you for participating in our third quarter earnings call. I am pleased to be here today to update you on the progress our team at Verisk is making on driving strategy and translating it into strong growth and value creation for our clients and shareholders alike. Elizabeth will provide the financial detail, but in summary, we delivered another strong quarter of results marked by solid organic revenue growth across most of our businesses, healthy margin expansion and double-digit profit growth. We have confidence in our ability to deliver on both our 2023 guidance and the longer-term objectives we communicated back in March at Investor Day.

早安，感謝各位參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。我很高興今天能在這裡向大家匯報Verisk團隊在策略推進和轉化為強勁成長以及為客戶和股東創造價值方面取得的進展。 Elizabeth將提供詳細的財務信息，但總而言之，我們又迎來了一個強勁的季度業績，旗下大部分業務實現了穩健的內生性收入增長，利潤率也實現了健康的提升，並取得了兩位數的利潤增長。我們有信心實現2023年的業績指引以及我們在3月份投資者日上提出的長期目標。

The industry environment within which we are operating is marked by some deep challenges. Insurance carriers are dealing with the crosscurrents of inflation and higher losses, which are both negatively impacting industry profitability. In fact, AM Best data for the first 6 months of 2023, points to a $24.5 billion net underwriting loss for the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry, running well ahead of the pace of the full year 2022, which experienced net underwriting losses of $26.9 billion. AM Best notes that personal lines, specifically homeowners, is the primary driver of these declines.

我們所處的產業環境面臨許多嚴峻挑戰。保險公司正努力應對通貨膨脹和賠償增加的雙重壓力，這兩大因素都對產業獲利能力造成了負面影響。事實上，AM Best 的數據顯示，2023 年上半年美國財產和意外保險業的淨承保虧損將達到 245 億美元，遠超 2022 年全年的 269 億美元淨承保虧損。 AM Best 指出，個人保險，尤其是房屋保險，是造成這些虧損的主要原因。

In reaction to this backdrop, carriers are exiting markets in key catastrophe-prone states, dropping certain lines of unprofitable business and laying off portions of their workforce. Carriers are also raising rates to attempt to cover rising inflation and losses, driving net written premium growth up 9.7% for the first 6 months of 2023. In response to this environment, Verisk is partnering closely with our clients to address their most pressing concerns, including high-value solutions that can deliver high return on investment for our clients. And we are including our clients earlier in the innovation process to ensure we are delivering the right solutions with simple implementations, improving the success rate and pace of uptake of new solutions.

在此背景下，保險公司紛紛退出災害高發州的市場，放棄部分無利可圖的業務，裁減部分員工。同時，為了因應不斷上漲的通貨膨脹和損失，保險公司也正在提高保費，推動2023年上半年淨保費收入成長9.7%。為了因應這個環境，Verisk正與客戶緊密合作，解決他們最迫切的需求，包括提供能為客戶帶來高投資回報的高價值解決方案。此外，我們也讓客戶更早參與創新過程中，以確保我們提供的解決方案易於實施，從而提高新解決方案的成功率和推廣速度。

One of the key tenets of our strategy is to elevate the strategic dialogue with our clients and to become their trusted data and analytic and technology partner. During the third quarter, we engaged with clients on several occasions and at a variety of venues, including the Verisk Insurance Conference in London. This year, we've combined several Verisk events to make it easier for clients to explore the many ways we can add value and increase the efficiency of their operations. In London, for example, we combined events focused on underwriting, claims, specialty insurance and extreme event modeling into a singular client-centric experience featuring Verisk solutions. I delivered one of 2 keynote presentations, and the entire Verisk Senior Operating Committee was in attendance, demonstrating our commitment to our customers at all levels.

我們策略的關鍵原則之一是提升與客戶的策略對話，成為他們值得信賴的數據、分析和技術合作夥伴。第三季度，我們多次與客戶在各種場合進行交流，包括在倫敦舉行的Verisk保險會議。今年，我們將Verisk的多個活動整合在一起，以便客戶更輕鬆地了解我們如何為他們創造價值並提高營運效率。例如，在倫敦，我們將專注於承保、理賠、特殊保險和極端事件建模的活動整合為一個以客戶為中心的體驗，重點介紹Verisk解決方案。我發表了兩場主題演講中的一場，Verisk高級營運委員會全體成員也出席了會議，這充分體現了我們對各級客戶的承諾。

A solutions gallery featured Verisk solutions as well as the solutions of our ecosystem partners, and we held 35 concurrent educational sessions. We wrapped up with a CEO dinner with attendees that represented carriers, brokers and managing general agents had a group discussion around common challenges faced by the entire insurance value chain.

解決方案展示區展示了 Verisk 的解決方案以及我們生態系統合作夥伴的解決方案，同時我們也舉辦了 35 場同時進行的教育研討會。最後，我們與來自保險公司、經紀人和總代理的執行長們舉行了晚宴，圍繞整個保險價值鏈面臨的共同挑戰展開了小組討論。

Enterprise-wide risk management is top of mind for many in London as our clients are managing extremely large and complex portfolios of risk spanning multiple classes of business and insurance markets all over the world. To address this pressing need, we recently introduced Enterprise Exposure Manager. This solution is a joint development effort between Specialty Business Solutions and extreme events to bring to the market a cloud-native and scalable solution that enables insurers and reinsurers to make more informed business decisions by offering a comprehensive view of risks that exist across large property portfolios.

在倫敦，企業級風險管理是許多企業最關注的問題，因為我們的客戶管理著龐大且極為複雜的風險組合，這些風險涵蓋全球多個行業的業務和保險市場。為了滿足這項迫切需求，我們近期推出了企業風險敞口管理系統 (Enterprise Exposure Manager)。該解決方案由 Specialty Business Solutions 和 Extreme Events 共同開發，旨在為市場帶來一款雲端原生且可擴展的解決方案，透過提供大型財產組合中存在的全面風險視圖，幫助保險公司和再保險公司做出更明智的業務決策。

As we engage with our customers at these events and in the many one-on-one meetings we have hosted throughout the year, there were a few consistent themes that we hear in these conversations. First is digital transformation, which represents a massive opportunity for the global insurance market. Our clients aspire to modernize their platforms, improve systems integrations, lower expenses and improve operational efficiency, and we are partnering with them on this journey. Verisk is introducing solutions that drive operational efficiency for some of their most people- and paper-intensive processes.

在這些活動中以及我們全年舉辦的眾多一對一會議中，我們與客戶交流時，發現一些反覆出現的主題。首先是數位轉型，為全球保險市場帶來了巨大的機會。我們的客戶渴望實現平台現代化、改善系統整合、降低成本並提高營運效率，而我們正與他們攜手共進。 Verisk 正在推出一些解決方案，旨在提升客戶部分最依賴人力和紙本文件的流程的營運效率。

For example, within our casualty business, we recently launched Discovery Navigator and are seeing solid early success. Discovery Navigator combines artificial intelligence and machine learning, Verisk's contributory data and years of clinical and legal expertise to immediately identify and extract key medical data points from unstructured records, which are part of bodily injury claims. Depending on the complexity of the case, the number of medical pages involved in a bodily injury claim can range from hundreds to thousands. Verisk has automated the organization, review and summary of these complex unstructured documents, allowing insurers to adjust, negotiate and settle more claims in less time.

例如，在我們的意外傷害保險業務中，我們最近推出了Discovery Navigator，並已取得初步成功。 Discovery Navigator結合了人工智慧和機器學習技術、Verisk的自有數據以及我們多年的臨床和法律專業知識，能夠立即從非結構化記錄中識別並提取關鍵的醫療數據點，這些記錄是人身傷害索賠的一部分。根據案件的複雜程度，人身傷害索賠涉及的醫療記錄頁數可能從數百頁到數千頁不等。 Verisk實現了這些複雜非結構化文件的自動整理、審核和匯總，使保險公司能夠在更短的時間內處理更多索賠，並進行更多協商和和解。

Discovery Navigator easily integrates into our customers' workflows through API or online options and delivers up to a 90% time savings and 95% accuracy for an average 10x ROI for clients. Additionally, Discovery Navigator is a widely versatile tool that is driving innovation and can be used in combination with other Verisk solutions like Liability Navigator, delivering workflow automation, decision support and overall efficiency for clients.

Discovery Navigator 可透過 API 或線上選項輕鬆整合到客戶的工作流程中，節省高達 90% 的時間，準確率高達 95%，平均可為客戶帶來 10 倍的投資報酬率。此外，Discovery Navigator 是一款功能強大的創新工具，可與其他 Verisk 解決方案（例如 Liability Navigator）結合使用，為客戶實現工作流程自動化、決策支援和整體效率提升。

The need for deeper data insights is also something we hear regularly from customers. Inflation trends during the past year have underscored the need for accurate, up-to-date and granular data insights to inform underwriting, risk management, reinsurance and claims decisions. No company is better positioned to meet this need than Verisk with our comprehensive and proprietary data assets. For example, our Verisk property estimating solutions are designed to meet these challenges head on with a comprehensive set of tools based on timely proprietary data, enabling our customers to write the most accurate estimates possible on their first attempt. This reduces the risk of over and underpayments while improving cycle times.

我們經常聽到客戶回饋需要更深入的數據洞察。過去一年的通膨趨勢凸顯了準確、及時且細緻的數據洞察對於核保、風險管理、再保險和理賠決策的重要性。憑藉我們全面且專有的數據資產，Verisk 無疑是滿足這項需求的最佳選擇。例如，我們的 Verisk 財產估價解決方案旨在透過一套基於及時專有數據的綜合工具來應對這些挑戰，使客戶能夠在第一次嘗試時就提供盡可能準確的估價。這不僅可以降低多付或少付的風險，還能縮短處理週期。

Key to this process is XactXpert, our recently introduced rules engine that assists estimators in avoiding unwarranted costs in their estimates. We also enable our customers' quality assurance teams that evaluate the data from the entire process, ensuring that the claim payment will be correct the first time.

這項流程的關鍵在於我們近期推出的規則引擎 XactXpert，它可以幫助估價師避免估價中出現不必要的成本。此外，我們也為客戶的品質保證團隊提供支持，讓他們能夠評估整個流程中的數據，從而確保理賠款項一次性準確無誤。

Finally, generative AI remains a frequent topic with clients, both its transformative potential and the risk that it brings. We believe gen AI can deliver efficiency within Verisk and in client-facing solutions, starting first in our underwriting and life businesses where we are actively exploring new product development as well as enhancements to existing solutions. We are increasing our investment and leaning into generative AI as our clients recognize that by partnering with Verisk, they can invest -- we can invest in this advanced technology on behalf of the industry more efficiently than any one customer can do on their own. We also intend to do so while maintaining our focus on fairness and value-centric governance.

最後，生成式人工智慧仍然是客戶經常討論的話題，既包括其變革潛力，也包括其帶來的風險。我們相信，生成式人工智慧能夠提升Verisk內部以及面向客戶的解決方案的效率，首先從我們的核保和壽險業務入手，我們正在積極探索新產品開發以及現有解決方案的改進。隨著客戶意識到與Verisk合作，他們可以更有效率地投資於這項先進技術——我們可以代表整個行業進行投資，這比任何單一客戶單獨投資都更有效率——我們正在加大對生成式人工智慧的投資力度。同時，我們也計劃在堅持公平和以價值為中心的治理原則的前提下進行這些工作。

On the theme of investment, I want to provide a progress report and update on our Core Lines Reimagine project. We are about 1/3 of the way complete in what is likely a 5-year journey to modernize our forms, rules and loss costs and related solutions. We have made progress modernizing our internal processes like our ratemaking operation to enable and efficiently scale innovations in current and new solutions. We are expanding our industry-leading contributory database by adding new data contributors and by increasing the quality of our collected data, and we are working on enhancing the recency of our data in our analytics.

關於投資方面，我想就我們的核心險種重塑計畫報告一下進展。我們已完成此專案約三分之一，預計專案將持續五年，旨在實現表格、規則、損失成本及相關解決方案的現代化。我們在內部流程現代化方面取得了進展，例如費率制定流程，從而能夠有效地擴展現有及新解決方案的創新。我們正在透過增加新的數據貢獻者和提高數據品質來擴展我們行業領先的貢獻者資料庫，並致力於提高分析數據的時效性。

On the customer-facing side, we are in market with new proprietary analytics and workflow tools. For example, we have launched executive and client insight reports designed for the senior leadership of our clients across 2 of the largest lines of insurance, namely homeowners and business owners with plans to expand into other large lines over time. Just this month, we also launched our legislative monitoring application in the new platform for select clients. This new cloud-native application transforms what was previously a document-based paper trail for tracking thousands of insurance-related legal, regulatory and legislative developments into a data-driven, modern digital monitoring and efficiency tool with an improved customer interface.

在面向客戶的方面，我們推出了全新的專有分析和工作流程工具。例如，我們針對客戶高階主管推出了高階主管和客戶洞察報告，涵蓋兩大保險業務領域：房屋保險和企業主保險，並規劃未來擴展到其他大型保險業務領域。就在本月，我們也在新平台上為部分客戶推出了立法監控應用程式。這款全新的雲端原生應用程式將以往基於紙本文件的、用於追蹤數千項與保險相關的法律、監管和立法動態的流程，轉變為數據驅動的現代化數位化監控和效率工具，並擁有更友善的客戶介面。

Legislative monitoring is the first of a series of new features that will be launched over the next several years on the platform. Overall, customer feedback on the Reimagine project has been quite positive, including on the custom analytics and legislative monitoring application I mentioned before, and there is excitement for future advances within Core Lines. This excitement is driving more constructive value-driven conversations with our clients as we partner with them along their digital transformation journey. We are making these investments to deliver increased value for our clients through enhanced underwriting accuracy and efficiency.

立法監測是未來幾年將在平台上推出的一系列新功能中的首個。總體而言，客戶對「重塑計畫」（Reimagine）計畫的回饋非常積極，包括我之前提到的客製化分析和立法監測應用程序，並且對核心險種（Core Lines）的未來發展充滿期待。這種期待促使我們與客戶開展更多以價值為導向的建設性對話，攜手推廣他們的數位轉型之旅。我們進行這些投資旨在透過提高承保的準確性和效率，為客戶創造更大的價值。

With that, I'll hand it over to Elizabeth to review our financial results.

接下來，我將把這項工作交給伊莉莎白，讓她審核我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Lee, and good day to everyone on the call. I am pleased to share that Verisk delivered strong third quarter financial results. On a consolidated and GAAP basis, revenue was $678 million, up 11% versus the prior year and income from continuing operations was $187 million, up 13% versus the prior year, reflecting strong growth across both underwriting and claims.

謝謝Lee，也祝各位電話會議成員今天愉快。我很高興地宣布，Verisk第三季財務業績表現強勁。以合併報表和GAAP準則計算，公司營收為6.78億美元，年增11%；持續經營業務利潤為1.87億美元，較去年同期成長13%，承保和理賠業務均實現了強勁成長。

Diluted GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations were $1.29, up 23% versus the prior year. This quarter's reported results included a $19 million litigation reserve expense associated with an indemnification for an ongoing inquiry related to our former Financial Services segment, which was sold in April 2022.

持續經營業務的稀釋後GAAP每股收益為1.29美元，較上年同期成長23%。本季度報告的業績包括1,900萬美元的訴訟準備金支出，該支出與一項正在進行的、涉及我們已於2022年4月出售的前金融服務部門的賠償調查有關。

Moving to our organic constant currency results adjusted for nonoperating items, as defined in the non-GAAP financial measures section of our press release. Our operating results demonstrated strong and broad-based growth from most of our businesses, aided by some in-period transactional benefits. In the third quarter, OCC revenues grew 9.4%, with growth of 8.3% in underwriting and 12.2% in claims. Our subscription revenues, which comprised 80% of our total revenue in the quarter, grew 9.3% on an OCC basis, with growth in almost all our subscription-based solutions.

接下來，我們將介紹經非經營性項目調整後的自然成長（以固定匯率計算），具體定義請參閱新聞稿中的非GAAP財務指標部分。我們的經營業績顯示，大部分業務均實現了強勁且全面的成長，部分期內交易收益也為此提供了助力。第三季度，OCC營收成長9.4%，其中承保業務成長8.3%，理賠業務成長12.2%。訂閱收入佔本季總營收的80%，以OCC計算成長9.3%，幾乎所有訂閱解決方案均成長。

More specifically, on the drivers of growth in subscription revenues. During the quarter, we experienced a continued benefit on certain of our revenues from the stronger net premium growth in 2021, which is currently reflected in some of our contract pricing as well as a lower level of attrition and consolidation across the industry.

更具體地說，我們來談談訂閱收入成長的驅動因素。本季度，我們部分營收持續受益於2021年淨保費的強勁成長，目前已反映在我們部分合約的定價中，同時，整個產業的客戶流失率和整合程度也較低。

Within property estimating solutions, our efforts to expand the ecosystem and drive new innovations like XactXpert are paying dividends through higher levels of customer retention for our contractor customers. In anti-fraud, we saw underlying strength in the business with growth augmented by the continued benefit from the conversion to subscription from previously transactional customers through our Claim Essentials bundle. And finally, within Extreme Event Solutions, we are benefiting from strong renewals and new customer wins.

在房地產估價解決方案領域，我們致力於拓展生態系統並推動諸如 XactXpert 等創新產品，這些努力正透過提高承包商客戶的留存率而獲得回報。在反詐騙領域，我們看到了業務的潛在強勁成長，這得益於 Claim Essentials 套餐將先前的交易型客戶轉化為訂閱用戶，並持續從中受益。最後，在極限事件解決方案領域，我們受益於強勁的續約率和新客戶的加入。

Our transactional revenues, representing 20% of total revenue in the third quarter, grew 10.2% on an OCC basis. The largest contributor to growth was again from our auto solutions, driven by better-than-expected shopping activity by consumers, and the continued benefit from the large non-rate action deal with a national insurer that we previously communicated.

第三季度，我們的交易收入佔總收入的20%，以OCC計算成長了10.2%。成長的最大貢獻者依然是我們的汽車解決方案，這主要得益於消費者超出預期的購車行為，以及我們先前已公佈的與一家全國性保險公司達成的大型非費率協議的持續收益。

Our trends track consistently with the recent J.D. Power data, which pointed to a 12% increase in shopping activity for auto insurance in the third quarter, as customers continue to respond to rate increases. That said, we will begin to anniversary the elevated shopping activity in the fourth quarter, so we are expecting that growth to moderate.

我們的趨勢與近期J.D. Power的數據一致，該數據顯示，第三季汽車保險的詢價活動增加了12%，因為客戶持續應對保費上漲。不過，第四季詢價活動將達到高峰，因此我們預計這一成長速度將會放緩。

In addition to gains in auto, our transactional revenue growth also benefited from double-digit growth from life insurance solutions as we are seeing strong customer demand for incremental services. And within our Property Estimating Solutions business, we saw strong transactional growth generated by our expanded set of distribution partners within our ecosystem and from elevated weather events, although not to the level of a large-scale catastrophe. In fact, according to Verisk's PCS data, the third quarter of 2023 had 73 days out of 92 that included a PCS event in the U.S. And 2023 is on track to become a new high for catastrophe frequency, likely to bypass 2021, which was the highest year on record to date.

除了汽車業務的成長外，我們的交易收入成長也得益於人壽保險解決方案兩位數的成長，因為我們看到客戶對增值服務的需求強勁。在我們的財產估價解決方案業務中，我們生態系統內分銷合作夥伴的擴大以及極端天氣事件的增加（儘管尚未達到大規模災難的程度）也帶來了強勁的交易增長。事實上，根據Verisk的PCS數據，2023年第三季92天中有73天發生在美國，且2023年有望成為災難發生頻率的新高，很可能超過2021年——迄今為止記錄中最高的一年。

Moving now to our adjusted EBITDA results. OCC adjusted EBITDA growth was 11.8% in the third quarter; while total adjusted EBITDA margin, which includes both organic and inorganic results, was 54%, up 70 basis points from the reported results in the prior year. This margin rate reflects core operating leverage from the strong revenue growth and cost discipline across the organization. As we've said in the past, the margin rate in any given quarter can be influenced by revenue mix and timing of spending. So we think it's best to look at our margins on a trailing 12-month basis, which in the third quarter were 53.3%, up 150 basis points over last year's level.

接下來來看我們調整後的EBITDA績效。 OCC第三季調整後EBITDA成長11.8%；而包含內生成長及外延成長在內的調整後EBITDA利潤率為54%，較上年同期成長70個基點。這一利潤率反映了強勁的營收成長和公司整體成本控制所帶來的核心營運槓桿效應。正如我們之前所說，任何季度的利潤率都可能受到收入結構和支出時間的影響。因此，我們認為最好以過去12個月的利潤率來衡量，第三季過去12個月的利潤率為53.3%，較上年同期成長150個基點。

Continuing down the income statement. Net interest expense was $29 million for the third quarter compared to $34 million in the prior year. The current level of net interest expense reflects lower year-over-year debt balances as we paid down our revolving credit facility as well as higher interest on cash balances. Our reported effective tax rate was 25% compared to 24.2% in the prior year quarter. The year-over-year change in the tax rate is related to the $19 million litigation reserve expense that we mentioned earlier, partially offset by higher stock compensation benefits in this quarter versus the prior year's period. Going forward, we expect the tax rate for the full year 2023 to be near the high end of the originally guided range of 23% to 25%.

繼續分析損益表。第三季淨利息支出為2,900萬美元，而上年同期為3,400萬美元。目前的淨利息支出水準反映了我們償還循環信貸額度後債務餘額年減，以及現金餘額利息支出增加。我們報告的實際稅率為25%，而去年同期為24.2%。稅率同比變動與我們先前提到的1,900萬美元訴訟準備金支出有關，但部分被本季高於去年同期的股權激勵收益所抵銷。展望未來，我們預計2023年全年稅率將接近先前預期的23%至25%區間的上限。

Adjusted net income increased 17% to $221 million, and diluted adjusted EPS increased 27% to $1.52 for the third quarter 2023. These changes reflect organic growth in the business, contributions from acquisitions and a lower average share count. The share count reflects the impact of our $2.5 billion accelerated share repurchase plan that we entered into in March as well as an additional $50 million worth of share repurchase that we completed in the third quarter. Regarding the share count, you can see that while our weighted average diluted shares outstanding declined 7.7% year-over-year, it was essentially flat sequentially.

2023年第三季度，經調整淨利成長17%至2.21億美元，稀釋後經調整每股盈餘成長27%至1.52美元。這些變化反映了業務的內生成長、收購帶來的貢獻以及平均流通股數量的減少。流通股數量的減少反映了我們3月份啟動的25億美元加速股票回購計畫以及第三季完成的額外5,000萬美元股票回購的影響。關於流通股數量，您可以看到，雖然我們的加權平均稀釋後流通股數量同比下降了7.7%，但環比基本持平。

From a cash flow perspective, on a reported basis, net cash from operating activities decreased 11% to $250 million, while free cash flow declined 9% to $196 million. The decline in both cash flow metrics is a function of the fact that prior year cash flow metrics include the results from previously divested businesses as well as a favorable cash tax impact in the prior year from the sale of our Environmental Health and Safety business. Adjusted for these items, both cash flow metrics increased year-over-year during the third quarter.

從現金流角度來看，以報告數據計算，經營活動產生的現金流量淨額下降11%至2.5億美元，自由現金流下降9%至1.96億美元。這兩項現金流指標的下降是由於去年同期現金流指標包含了先前剝離業務的業績，以及去年出售環境健康與安全業務帶來的有利現金稅收影響。剔除這些因素後，這兩項現金流指標在第三季均較去年同期成長。

We are very pleased with the robust year-to-date performance. Our guidance for 2023 remains unchanged. We now expect revenue to be towards the high end of our range of $2.63 billion to $2.66 billion; adjusted EBITDA is still expected to be between $1.39 billion to $1.43 billion; adjusted EBITDA margin in the 53% to 54% range; and adjusted EPS in the range of $5.50 to $5.70. A complete listing of all guidance measures can be found in the earnings slide deck, which has been posted to the Investors section of our website, verisk.com. We do want to remind you that the fourth quarter of 2022 included $6 million in revenue associated with Hurricane Ian as well as a tax benefit associated with the divestiture of Wood Mackenzie.

我們對年初至今的強勁業績非常滿意。我們對2023年的業績指引保持不變。我們現在預計營收將接近先前預期範圍的高端，即26.3億美元至26.6億美元；調整後EBITDA預計仍為13.9億美元至14.3億美元；調整後EBITDA利潤率預計為53%至54%；調整後每股收益預計為5.50美元至5.70美元。所有績效指引指標的完整清單可在我們網站verisk.com投資者關係欄位發布的獲利報告幻燈片中找到。我們想提醒您，2022年第四季包含與颶風伊恩相關的600萬美元收入，以及與出售伍德麥肯錫公司相關的稅收優惠。

And now I will turn the call back over to Lee for some closing comments.

現在我將把電話轉回給李，請他做一些總結發言。

Thanks, Elizabeth. In summary, we are excited about our business momentum and the opportunity ahead. Our motivating purpose is to partner with our clients in building resilience for individuals, communities and businesses globally. The combination of our focused business model, deep customer relationships and strategy to deliver value for clients to improve decision-making and operational efficiency is a formula that will also deliver value to our shareholders through growth and returns. We continue to appreciate the support and interest in Verisk. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝伊麗莎白。總而言之，我們對目前的業務發展動能和未來的機會感到振奮。我們始終秉持著與客戶攜手合作，為全球個人、社群和企業增強韌性的宗旨。我們專注於業務模式，與客戶建立深厚的合作關係，並制定策略為客戶創造價值，以提升決策水準和營運效率。這一模式也將透過成長和回報為股東創造價值。我們衷心感謝大家對Verisk的支持與關注。 （操作說明）

With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

這樣，我就可以請接線生開通提問專線了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自高盛的喬治唐（George Tong）的線路。

Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing with insurance marketing budgets, especially in the current rate and inflation environment and if you're seeing any sort of a pullback from insurance carriers?

您能否談談您目前觀察到的保險行銷預算情況，尤其是在當前的利率和通膨環境下，以及您是否看到保險公司有任何縮減預算的跡象？

Yes. Thank you, George. I appreciate the question. So the short answer is yes. I think the dynamic that we're observing is that because of the loss environment and the frustrations that the carriers generally have had in getting rate increases to compensate them for the increased risk and the increased replacement costs driven by replacement. Right now, they are focused on achieving profitability off of their existing books, and that has resulted in a lower level of advertising by the carriers as they are kind of working with their existing book.

是的，謝謝你，喬治。我很感謝你的提問。簡而言之，答案是肯定的。我認為我們觀察到的這種現像是，由於損失環境以及保險公司普遍難以獲得費率上漲以彌補風險增加和重置成本上升帶來的損失，他們目前專注於從現有業務中實現盈利，這導致保險公司減少了廣告投入，因為他們主要精力都放在了現有業務上。

We have seen, as Elizabeth described, a lot of shopping activity, but that is consumer driven and as a response to the higher rates that almost everyone is experiencing right now. The consequences of that for us is that in our Verisk Marketing Solutions business, we have seen declines within that business because of lower overall advertising spend by the carriers as a function of this environment.

正如伊莉莎白所描述的，我們看到了大量的購物活動，但這主要是消費者為了應對目前幾乎所有人都在經歷的高費率而採取的行動。對我們而言，這意味著我們的Verisk行銷解決方案業務出現了下滑，因為營運商在這種環境下整體廣告支出有所減少。

(inaudible) line of Manav Patnaik from Barclays Capital.

（聽不清楚）巴克萊資本的馬納夫·帕特奈克的發言。

I guess I'll just ask a question around the guidance that was maintained. I mean this quarter came in, I think, above at least our expectations and probably yours, correct me if I'm wrong there. But if the subscription growth stays steady like it usually does, are you implying that the transaction piece could see some material declines? Just would love any help with just trying to bridge that.

我想問一個關於業績指引的問題。我的意思是，這個季度的業績至少超出了我們的預期，可能也超出了您的預期，如果我理解有誤請指正。但如果訂閱用戶成長像往常一樣保持穩定，您是否暗示交易業務可能會大幅下滑？我只是想弄清楚這一點，希望能得到一些幫助。

Yes. Thanks very much, Manav. On the guidance, we're very proud of our results year-to-date. We've given full year guidance in order to bring additional transparency and for folks to see how the business is going. We did update that midyear after seeing significant shifts in the environment. But our full year guidance does imply revenue growth of approximately 8% to 9% on a reported basis. That's above our long-term targets.

是的，非常感謝，Manav。關於業績指引，我們對今年迄今的業績非常滿意。我們發布全年業績指引是為了提高透明度，讓大家了解公司的營運狀況。年中，由於市場環境發生了重大變化，我們對業績指引進行了更新。但我們的全年業績指引仍意味著，以報告數據計算，營收成長約為8%至9%。這高於我們的長期目標。

As we look at the fourth quarter, no specific comment on the fourth quarter other than what I highlighted, which is to remind that the growth comparisons do get tougher in the fourth quarter due to the storm revenue and the tax benefit there.

展望第四季度，除了我強調的幾點之外，沒有其他特別的評論。需要指出的是，由於風暴收入和稅收優惠，第四季度的成長比較會變得更加困難。

(inaudible) line of Alex Kramm with UBS.

（聽不清楚）Alex Kramm 與瑞銀集團的對話。

Just Lee, you keep on talking about the strategic dialogue you have with customers at a high level. It sounds like some of the stuff is resonating. I guess I'm curious, are you actually measuring success in any way yet? Or is this too early? I mean should we be looking for larger, I don't know, outsourcing deals? Or maybe, again, specifically, like any revenues that you're tracking that you can already talk about?

李，你一直在說你和客戶進行高層策略對話。聽起來有些內容確實引起了共鳴。我很好奇，你現在有衡量成功的方式嗎？還是現在談論這個還為時過早？我的意思是，我們是否應該考慮規模更大的外包交易？或者，更具體地說，你目前追蹤到的任何收入情況可以分享一下嗎？

Thank you, Alex. I'm happy to address that. I think we have seen a clear benefit in a variety of areas. So one and first is that engaging at that strategic dialogue, and I probably have had over a dozen of client CEO meetings, and one thing that we focus on in that is understanding their broader enterprise challenges within this environment. And there's also a focus on what is Verisk doing for us, and where are the areas that we are helping others that we can help them. And specifically in a number of those conversations, we've identified existing products that we have that can be particularly helpful in this environment.

謝謝Alex。我很樂意回答這個問題。我認為我們在很多方面都看到了明顯的好處。首先，我們積極參與策略對話，我可能已經和十幾位客戶CEO開過會了，我們重點關注的是了解他們在當前環境下面臨的更廣泛的企業挑戰。同時，我們也關注Verisk能為我們做些什麼，以及我們在哪些方面能夠幫助到他們。尤其是在一些對話中，我們發現了一些現有的產品，它們在這種環境下能發揮特別大的作用。

And I would say our -- what we have done to help carriers analyze their existing rate adequacy and where there may be opportunities to improve their rates in their auto book or in other parts of their business. And that's opened up some channels that before where our bottoms-up approach may have run into an obstacle within the organization but when given the opportunity to describe the strategic benefit, the financial benefit, we're getting more top-down support. And I've seen that take place in a number of clients. So I think that's one.

我想說，我們所做的工作是幫助保險公司分析他們現有的費率是否合理，以及在汽車保險業務或其他業務領域中哪些方面可能存在費率優化空間。這開闢了一些管道，以前我們自下而上的方法可能會在組織內部遇到阻礙，但當我們有機會闡述策略效益和財務效益時，我們就能獲得更多自上而下的支持。我已經看到這種情況發生在很多客戶身上。所以我認為這是其中之一。

The second is in understanding areas -- emerging areas where they are facing either challenges or interest in new technologies and opportunity to guide what we are doing in some of our projects like Core Lines Reimagine, what we're doing in generative AI to tailor them to what we know has strategic resonance for those clients has been helpful. And so I think as we have been investing in a number of generative AI applications, that has been specifically helped by getting insight and buy-in from those levels.

第二點是了解新興領域，了解他們面臨的挑戰或對新技術和機會的興趣，這可以指導我們在一些項目中的工作，例如「核心線路重塑」項目，以及我們在生成式人工智慧領域的工作，從而根據我們知道對客戶具有戰略意義的內容進行客製化。因此，我認為，在我們投資多個生成式人工智慧應用的過程中，獲得這些層面的洞察和支持尤其重要。

I had one dinner with a CEO who said, "Look, Lee, we could spend tens of millions of dollars on generative AI, and I'm not sure what we'll be able to generate out of it. But if you can develop a pilot and we can benefit from that, we would be happy to test that pilot as soon as you have it ready." And I think that's a great example of where we're able to substantiate that strategic dialogue and translate it into targeted product development at a faster rate than we would have before. I think those are certainly benefits that we'll hope to begin to deliver additional growth for us in 2024, supporting our core business.

我曾與一位執行長共進晚餐，他說：「李，我們或許可以在生成式人工智慧上投入數千萬美元，但我並不確定最終能從中獲得什麼。不過，如果你能開發出一個試點項目，並且我們能從中受益，我們很樂意在你完成之後立即進行測試。」我認為這是一個很好的例子，它體現了我們如何將其比實際開發速度更快。我相信這些優勢將在2024年開始為我們帶來額外的成長，並支持我們的核心業務。

The next question comes from the line of Greg Peters with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Greg Peters。

I will focus my question on Slide 6 of your investor deck where you break out subscription and nonsubscription growth. And I guess I'm going to come at the nonsubscription piece where you call out auto underwriting, property estimating and life insurance. And clearly, you're doing really well this year, but we're also dealing with some really unusual profitability challenges inside auto and property. Would you expect that the nonsubscription organic growth rate would inversely correlate with sort of the underwriting cycle for your carrier partners? Or am I missing something?

我的問題將集中在您投資者簡報的第6頁，您在那裡詳細列出了訂閱業務和非訂閱業務的成長情況。我想專注於您提到的非訂閱業務部分，也就是汽車保險承保、財產估價和人壽保險。顯然，您今年的業績非常出色，但我們也面臨著汽車和財產保險領域一些非常特殊的獲利挑戰。您是否認為非訂閱業務的自然成長率會與您的保險公司合作夥伴的承保週期呈反比關係？或者我遺漏了什麼？

Well, thanks for the question, Greg. Let me take a crack at that. I think it's a little bit hard to draw that conclusion. The transactional revenue is a combination of a couple of different areas. We've highlighted the main ones that contributed to the growth. The auto underwriting, the shopping activity has driven that. The property estimating solutions has a transactional component related to weather activity and then life on the incremental services. So I'm not sure I would point it directly to an inverse correlation to the underwriting environment.

謝謝你的提問，格雷格。讓我來試著回答一下。我覺得很難得出這樣的結論。交易收入是由幾個不同領域共同構成的。我們已經重點介紹了推動成長的主要領域。汽車保險承保和購物活動是主要驅動因素。房產估價解決方案的交易部分與天氣活動以及加值服務有關。所以我不太確定它是否與承保環境直接呈負相關。

Your next question comes from Andrew Jeffrey with Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Andrew Jeffrey。

Elizabeth, could you give us an update on the state of 2 markets. One, Florida, just an update on liquidations and how that's impacting your outlook for the fourth quarter. And also California, I know there's been, I think, Lee, you referred to in your prepared remarks, some disruption in especially homeowners, underwriting in California and some challenges that carriers are facing raising rates. Just wondering if there are any updates in either of those areas as it pertains to guidance and maybe the longer-term outlook, too.

伊莉莎白，能否請您介紹兩個市場的最新情況？首先是佛羅裡達州，請您介紹一下清算情況以及這對您第四季度的展望有何影響？其次是加州，我知道李，您在先前的發言稿中也提到過，加州的房屋保險承保業務受到了一些影響，保險公司在提高保費方面也面臨一些挑戰。我想了解一下，在這兩個領域，關於業績指引以及更長期的展望，是否有任何新的進展。

Yes. Andrew, this is Lee. I know you directed that to Elizabeth, but we have Neil Spector, who runs our underwriting business for us. And I think he's been closer to that. So let me give him an opportunity to give you a read from what we're seeing in those markets.

是的，安德魯，我是李。我知道你之前是讓伊莉莎白回答的，但我們還有尼爾·斯佩克特，他負責我們的核保業務。我覺得他比較了解狀況。所以，我請他來為你解讀我們目前在這些市場上的觀察。

Sure. Thanks. Well, first, I'm sure you've seen the news that several large national carriers have kind of withdrawn writing new business in both those markets due to the challenges. However, in Florida specifically, we haven't seen any additional liquidations, and there's been no reduction in the ratings of the carriers that are there. So there's still availability in that market of carriers. And you may have seen recently a press release we put out in the last quarter showing how Citizens, which is the state-run insurer, is leveraging some of our aerial imagery data to help with evaluation of properties in Florida. So that's really stable as far as between the last time we reported and now.

當然，謝謝。首先，我相信您已經看到新聞報道，由於面臨挑戰，幾家大型全國性保險公司已經停止在這兩個市場承保新業務。然而，具體到佛羅裡達州，我們沒有看到任何新的清算，現有保險公司的評級也沒有下調。因此，該市場仍有保險公司可供選擇。您可能也看到了我們上個季度發布的新聞稿，其中介紹了州立保險公司Citizens如何利用我們的一些空拍圖像數據來協助評估佛羅裡達州的房產。所以，從我們上次報告至今，情況確實非常穩定。

California, there's certainly challenges both in the amount of time it takes to get rates approved and also in what tools you're allowed to use in Florida as far as pricing goes. And those continue, although the regulators in California are seriously looking at the potential to use more tools in the future to help with challenges like wildfire.

加州確實面臨諸多挑戰，一方面是費率審批耗時較長，另一方面是佛羅裡達州在定價方面允許使用的工具種類有限。儘管加州監管機構正在認真考慮未來使用更多工具來應對諸如野火等挑戰，但這些挑戰仍然存在。

And I would add to that, Andrew. I think that gives a great kind of current sense of where things are. Neil and I were in Washington, D.C. last week, meeting with a number of the trade associations just to understand how we can be helpful to the industry from a data perspective. And one thing that was very clear is that the Florida and California are both very engaged with the industry to understand what steps could be taken to improve the health of those markets. I think they understand the risk and the challenges. They obviously face some political pressure, but we've been encouraged by their openness to discussing how they can improve the market dynamic for the carriers within each of those markets. And that's an intense level of dialogue that could ameliorate some of the kind of the early pressures that we saw.

安德魯，我還要補充一點。我認為這很好地展現了當前局勢。上週，我和尼爾去了華盛頓特區，並會見了多個行業協會，旨在了解我們如何從數據角度為行業提供幫助。其中一點非常明確：佛羅裡達州和加州都非常積極地與產業合作，探討可以採取哪些措施來改善各自市場的健康狀況。我認為他們了解其中的風險和挑戰。他們顯然面臨著一些政治壓力，但他們願意討論如何改善各自市場中保險公司的市場動態，這讓我們感到鼓舞。這種深入的對話有助於緩解我們之前看到的一些壓力。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Meuler with Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Jeff Meuler 與 Baird 的合作系列。

Yes. I'd imagine we're at the time of the year where you're starting to send invoices on '24 pricing. So can you just talk through how you're thinking about it relative to the historical context just given the crosscurrents of still-elevated inflation, but maybe it's coming down the P&C insurance industry profitability challenges. And then just not sure how things like Core Lines play into that pricing realization versus discrete upsell.

是的。我想現在應該到了你們開始以2024年價格開立發票的時候了。鑑於目前通膨依然居高不下，但財產保險業的獲利挑戰或許正在逐漸緩解，您能否結合歷史背景，談談您是如何考慮這個問題的？另外，我也不確定核心險種和單獨的追加銷售等因素在最終定價中扮演什麼角色。

Yes. Thanks, Jeff, for the question. Obviously, we're looking at it. It's still early in the cycle, and I'm not in a position to quote any numbers or any thoughts on '24. The data on 2022, while it's still being finalized, it does show net written premium growth still in an elevated level, around the 8%, slightly north of 8%. That has tapered from the 2021 growth, but it's still relatively high on a historical basis.

是的。謝謝傑夫的提問。顯然，我們正在關注這個問題。目前還處於週期初期，我無法就2024年的情況給予任何具體數據或看法。 2022年的數據雖然仍在最終確定中，但顯示淨保費收入成長仍處於較高水平，約為8%，略高於8%。雖然增速較2021年放緩，但從歷史角度來看仍相對較高。

I think Lee pointed to both that environment, but also the fact that it is a function of the challenges and the desire to move towards profitability that our carriers, our customers are seeing. And so we are balancing those two things as we go into the rate -- the pricing cycle for next year.

我認為李指出了這種環境，同時也指出了營運商和客戶所面臨的挑戰以及實現盈利的願望。因此，我們在製定明年的費率週期時，需要權衡這兩方面因素。

I think those are the 2 core elements. One, the impact of premium growth, which as we indicated, remains strong as well as the value that we are creating, particularly in Core Lines where we've increased the number of datasets. We've increased the ability of our clients to utilize that data. And so we certainly look to capture the value that we're creating for our clients there, and all of those factor into our pricing considerations.

我認為這是兩個核心要素。第一，保費成長的影響，正如我們之前提到的，仍然強勁；第二，我們創造的價值，尤其是在核心險種領域，我們增加了資料集的數量，提高了客戶利用這些資料的能力。因此，我們當然希望能夠反映我們為客戶創造的價值，而所有這些因素都會影響我們的定價決策。

Your next question comes from the line of Russell Quelch with Redburn.

你的下一個問題來自 Russell Quelch 與 Redburn 的對話。

Your next question comes from the line of Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

Lee, I was hoping you could talk about the M&A pipeline. Any areas of particular interest, maybe technology, just given you highlighted the digital transformation theme earlier. Just wanted to ask about sort of how -- what would be interesting and how you're seeing levels of assets right now?

李，我希望你能談談併購方面的進展。你有沒有特別感興趣的領域，像是科技領域？鑑於你之前強調了數位轉型這個主題。我想問的是，你覺得哪些方面比較有趣？你如何看待目前的資產水準？

Thanks, Toni. So the first thing that I would say is, hopefully, as is evident by kind of what we have been doing has been a primary focus on our internal operations and what we can accomplish with the core business. And we're particularly focused on the growth objectives that we've set, the margin objectives that we've set. And we feel it's important coming after -- coming off of Investor Day that we are focused on demonstrating what the core franchise is able to deliver.

謝謝，托尼。首先我想說的是，正如我們一直以來所做的那樣，我們主要關注的是內部營運以及我們核心業務所能取得的成就。我們尤其關注我們設定的成長目標和利潤率目標。我們認為，在投資者日之後，重點介紹核心業務的實力至關重要。

So in that regard, we are not looking at any substantial large acquisitions that would be transformative. We obviously are entirely focused on insurance right now. And so that's the orientation. We do maintain active engagement on smaller, midsized opportunities, generally sub-$100 million, where we feel there may be a high-quality product that has gotten initial traction with the industry and where we can add substantial value by accelerating its adoption. In many cases, our clients feel more comfortable adopting a product when they know that they have the strength and the stability and our capabilities behind it. Or we can enhance that product by improving the dataset, improving the efficiency or the technology that's driving it. And we've had success with that in a number of areas, probably most notably, our acquisition of FAST on the life side, which has been a textbook case of where we can add value in those areas.

因此，就此而言，我們目前沒有考慮任何可能帶來改變的大型收購。顯然，我們目前完全專注於保險業務。這就是我們的發展方向。我們也會積極關註一些規模較小、中等的投資機會，通常低於1億美元。我們認為，在這些機會中，可能存在一些高品質的產品，這些產品已經獲得了行業初步認可，而我們可以透過加速其推廣應用來創造顯著價值。在許多情況下，當客戶知道產品背後有我們強大的實力、穩定性和能力支援時，他們會更願意採用該產品。或者，我們可以透過改進資料集、提高效率或增強驅動產品的技術來提升其效能。我們在許多領域都取得了成功，其中最值得一提的可能是我們收購了人壽保險領域的FAST公司，這堪稱我們能夠在這些領域創造價值的經典案例。

We continue to be excited about the marketing opportunity, even though as we mentioned in our earlier comments, the advertising environment has been a headwind for that. But we see broader appetite for those, and we'll look to -- across all of our businesses to see where there might be a technology or a product or a dataset that is relevant. So I wouldn't say that there is anything in particular. We really are aware of it across all of our businesses, and we want to make certain that we don't miss an opportunity to enhance one of our businesses if there is something that is truly additive.

我們依然對行銷機會充滿信心，儘管正如我們先前提到的，廣告環境一直對這機會構成挑戰。但我們看到市場對這類機會有著更廣泛的需求，我們將審視所有業務，並尋找可能相關的技術、產品或資料集。因此，我並不認為目前有任何具體的機會。我們確實在所有業務領域都意識到了這一點，並且我們希望確保不會錯過任何能夠真正提升我們業務的機會。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrew Steinerman。

Elizabeth, you pointed to the high end of the 2023 guidance range now being expected. Was that just for revenues or for other figures as well? And then when I look at the high end for the 2023 revenue guide, I get an implied revenue growth for the fourth quarter of plus 4%. Of course, that would be as reported. Could you help us with the counterpart, the OCC revenue growth implied in the fourth quarter?

伊莉莎白，您提到目前預期2023年業績指引範圍的上限。這只是指營收，還是也包含其他數據？另外，我查看2023年營收指引的上限，得出第四季隱含營收成長率為4%。當然，這是已公佈的數據。您能否提供一下第四季OCC的隱含營收成長率？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Andrew. That comment about the high end was specific and confined to revenues and did not apply to the other line items. And I'm not here to comment on the fourth quarter in specific, other than the points I made about the year-over-year comps.

是的，謝謝你的提問，安德魯。我之前關於高端市場的評論僅限於營收，並不涉及其他項目。除了我之前提到的同比數據之外，我今天不打算對第四季度的具體情況發表評論。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Silber from BMO Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

I'm going to ask a question about 2024, but not a numbers question. I'm just curious, compared to a year ago, what areas of your business are you feeling more confident about as we head into the next year? And conversely, what areas might be a bit more concerning for you than they were a year ago?

我要問一個關於2024年的問題，但不是關於數字的。我只是好奇，與一年前相比，您對明年業務的哪些方面更有信心？反過來，哪些方面可能比一年前更讓您擔憂？

Thank you, Jeff. It's an interesting question. And I would start off by saying that first, at a high level, I feel as though the strategic engagement that we've had has created broader opportunities for us to advance in a number of businesses by more effectively communicating the value to their enterprises. So I think that's certainly something that we feel strongly about.

謝謝你，傑夫。這是一個很好的問題。首先，從宏觀層面來說，我認為我們所進行的策略合作為我們創造了更廣泛的機遇，使我們能夠更有效地向客戶傳遞我們的價值，從而在多個業務領域取得進展。所以，這無疑是我們非常重視的一點。

In addition, I feel confident about the Core Lines Reimagine investment that we have made and our ability to deliver greater value to our clients over the next several years and to participate in that. I think that we are also seeing in the property market and the focus around profitability an opportunity to serve our clients more broadly. I think the other thing that we would look at this year that we have benefited from is some higher level of transactional activity, particularly in the auto side with high levels of shopping that have contributed to our growth rate that may not be sustained into 2024. Similarly on the property side, some higher levels of activity there that have contributed to strong growth.

此外，我對我們已進行的「核心業務重塑」投資充滿信心，也相信我們有能力在未來幾年為客戶創造更大價值並參與其中。我認為，房地產市場以及對獲利能力的關注，為我們更廣泛地服務客戶提供了機會。今年我們受益的另一個面向是交易活動的增加，尤其是在汽車領域，高交易量推動了我們的成長，但這種成長勢頭可能無法持續到2024年。同樣，房地產領域的交易活動也顯著增加，推動了強勁成長。

I think overall, we're really pleased with the growth that we generated in 2023. We had some tailwinds. We aren't providing guidance on 2024. At this point, we have to step back and assess where we are and we'll do that in the first quarter. But I think strategically and from an investment standpoint, we're excited about where we're investing, Core Lines, generative AI, investments that we're making in broadening our ecosystem and integrating other partners that add value to our customers. And we'll continue to work to offset and mitigate any of the transactional benefits that we've had in 2023.

整體而言，我們對2023年所取得的成長非常滿意。我們受益於一些有利因素。我們目前不提供2024年的業績指引。現階段，我們需要回顧並評估我們所處的位置，我們將在第一季進行評估。但從策略和投資角度來看，我們對目前的投資方向感到興奮，包括核心業務線、生成式人工智慧、拓展生態系統以及整合其他能為客戶創造價值的合作夥伴。我們將繼續努力抵銷和緩解2023年交易帶來的任何收益。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Nicholas from William Blair.

你的下一個問題來自安德魯·尼古拉斯（Andrew Nicholas）的威廉·布萊爾（William Blair）的詩句。

I wanted to ask a modeling one, not specific to fourth quarter '23 necessarily. Just wanted to ask, the last half decade has been a little bit of a crazy one, I think that's speaking to it lightly. A lot of moving parts. Where the business sits today, is there any -- how would you kind of describe the seasonality of transaction revenue? Is there a -- if we're talking about '25, '26, is there like a typical cadence that we should expect on the nonsubscription line given the makeup of the underlying businesses that comprise that?

我想問一個關於建模的問題，不一定特別指2023年第四季。只是想問，過去五年有點瘋狂，我覺得這麼說還輕描淡寫了。很多因素都在改變。就目前業務狀況而言，交易收入的季節性如何？如果我們討論的是2025年、2026年，考慮到構成非訂閱業務的底層業務結構，我們應該預期非訂閱業務的收入會有怎樣的典型波動？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Andrew. The biggest component of the transaction revenue that has some seasonality to it, there's 2 that come to mind, one is the weather-related seasonality in property estimating solutions, that on a long-term historical basis, tends to occasionally get a boost in the third quarter as a function of Atlantic hurricanes. Last year in '22, that happened to hit in October and fell in the fourth quarter.

是的，謝謝你的提問，安德魯。交易收入中受季節性影響最大的部分有兩個，一個是房地產估價解決方案的季節性波動，與天氣有關。從長期歷史數據來看，由於大西洋颶風的影響，這部分收入往往會在第三季出現成長。去年（2022年），颶風恰好在10月來襲，導致營收在​​第四季下降。

The other element that you saw last quarter, the securitization market can sometimes -- that hits in the second quarter primarily. That's a relatively small part in our business. The other elements of transactional revenue don't necessarily have a seasonal pattern to them, the life insurance services. The auto underwriting product is more a function of their own markets.

上個季度您也看到了證券化市場的影響—這主要體現在第二季。這在我們業務中所佔比例相對較小。其他交易收入來源，例如人壽保險服務，並不一定有明顯的季節性規律。汽車保險承保產品則更取決於其自身的市場狀況。

The next question comes from the line of Heather Balsky with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Heather Balsky。

I was hoping you could update us on your expense program, where you are today. Are there any other areas that you're identifying in terms of opportunity as we move forward?

我希望您能向我們介紹一下您的費用報銷計劃，以及目前的進展。隨著我們不斷推進，您是否還發現了其他方面的潛在機會？

Yes. Heather, thanks for the question. Our expense program, as we highlighted in the past, I think we said sort of over 90% of the benefit is experienced in 2023. So I think of those original set of actions, we think they've largely been actioned and are expressing themselves in the margin expansion that you're seeing today. There is continued focus on cost efficiency at Verisk. And so we're looking in the future for opportunities based on our global talent outsourcing program and based well on investments in internal efficiency that will play out over time like the ERP program that we've talked about.

是的，Heather，謝謝你的提問。正如我們之前強調的，我們的費用控制計劃，我認為超過90%的收益將在2023年顯現。因此，我認為最初制定的一系列措施已經基本落實，並體現在你今天看到的利潤率成長中。 Verisk將繼續專注於提高成本效益。因此，我們正在展望未來，尋找基於全球人才外包計畫以及對內部效率提升的投資（例如我們之前提到的ERP項目）所帶來的機遇，這些投資將隨著時間的推移而逐步顯現成效。

And Heather, I would say, look, we're very focused on the margin objectives that we set at Investor Day. And I think we had a very good start in what we have delivered and have been realizing the benefits of that. But it's a continuous process for us, and we're always going to look for where we can achieve greater efficiencies throughout the business.

希瑟，我想說，我們非常關注在投資人日上設定的利潤率目標。我認為我們目前的進展非常順利，也已經開始從中受益。但這對我們來說是一個持續的過程，我們會不斷尋找提升業務效率的方法。

Elizabeth mentioned several, but as we have been able to make the business a more integrated business focused on insurance, I think we've identified some areas where we can improve both effectiveness and efficiency in the organization. And we'll expect to be pursuing those in 2024 to continue that momentum.

伊莉莎白提到了幾個方面，但隨著我們不斷努力，將業務整合為一個更專注於保險的綜合性企業，我認為我們已經找到了一些可以提升組織效率和效益的領域。我們計劃在2024年繼續推進這些領域的工作，以保持這種發展勢頭。

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Weber of Wells Fargo Securities.

你的下一個問題來自富國證券的賽斯韋伯。

I was interested in your comment in the prepared remarks about incremental business on the life side. I'm wondering if you could just unpack that a little bit and talk about customer appetite for more cross-selling and taking more solutions here in this environment.

我對您在準備好的發言稿中關於生活領域增量業務的評論很感興趣。我想請您進一步闡述一下，並談談在當前環境下，客戶對交叉銷售和更多解決方案的需求。

So Seth, thank you for the question. And I'm going to ask Neil to talk about where we see incremental opportunities within the life space. I think it's not only clients, but also thinking about kind of the nature of their technology, that low-code, no-code approach and its applicability more broadly here in the industry.

塞思，謝謝你的提問。接下來我會請尼爾談談我們在生命健康領域看到了哪些成長機會。我認為這不僅關乎客戶，還要考慮他們技術的本質，例如低程式碼、無程式碼方法及其在整個行業中更廣泛的適用性。

Yes. Thanks, Lee. So our solution in life is a low-code, no-code software platform that helps the life insurer from the policy administration distribution claims, from a full life cycle. And what we've seen is even in the current environment, there is a huge need in the life industry to modernize technology. They're behind P&C as far as modernization of systems. And as Lee pointed out, because our system is a low-code, no-code, we have the opportunity to potentially lower the operating costs of deployed lines of business on our platform pretty substantially versus legacy solutions. So there's a strong incentive for life insurers to move on to these more flexible and lower cost operating environments.

是的，謝謝Lee。我們為壽險產業提供的解決方案是一個低代碼/無代碼軟體平台，可以幫助壽險公司處理從保單管理、分銷到理賠的整個生命週期。我們發現，即使在當前環境下，壽險產業也迫切需要技術現代化。在系統現代化方面，他們落後於財產險產業。正如Lee所指出的，由於我們的系統是低程式碼/無程式碼的，因此我們有機會大幅降低已部署業務線在我們平台上的營運成本，遠低於傳統解決方案。因此，壽險公司有很強的動力轉向這些更靈活、成本更低的營運環境。

We've also seen a huge need from our customers in support of their transformation, and that has driven some of our service or our transactional revenue for our existing customers because of their desire to have us support their implementation efforts.

我們也看到客戶在轉型過程中有著巨大的需求，這推動了我們現有客戶的部分服務或交易收入，因為他們希望我們支持他們的實施工作。

Your next question comes from the line of Surinder Thind with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自蘇林德辛德 (Surinder Thind) 與傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的合作。

Lee, could you please discuss maybe the performance in the international business? Maybe what's driving growth there and how that kind of differs from the U.S.? And maybe even some product plans or how you expect to kind of further [book] the offering out there?

李，您能否談談國際業務的業績表現？是什麼推動了國際業務的成長，以及它與美國業務有何不同？還有，能否談談產品計劃，或是您打算如何進一步拓展國際市場？

Yes. Thank you, Surinder. I'm going to -- appreciate that. We've been pleased with the international growth rates across the organization. I would put them into 3 categories. We first have our Specialty Business Solutions, which is predominantly London-based, addressing the Lloyd's or the excess in surplus market there. They continue to have success in delivering workflow and automation efficiencies through the software platform that they have built and are integrating other components to. We think that delivers a lot of value to the participants in that market. So that's been additive to our overall growth rate.

是的，謝謝你，蘇林德。我非常感謝。我們對整個組織的國際成長率感到滿意。我會將它們分為三類。首先是我們的專業業務解決方案部門，該部門主要位於倫敦，服務於勞合社或當地的超額保險市場。他們透過自主開發的軟體平台，不斷提升工作流程和自動化效率，並持續整合其他元件。我們認為這為該市場的參與者創造了巨大的價值。因此，這促進了我們的整體成長。

On the underwriting side, we have a life, health and travel business that has performed well, particularly coming off of the resurgence of global travel post the pandemic. Since then, it's kind of normalized, but we continue to see opportunities for that to grow. And I'm going to actually turn to Maroun Mourad, who has had several businesses internationally on the claims side to give you a sense of our experience there as well.

在核保方面，我們的人壽、健康和旅遊保險業務表現良好，尤其是在疫情後全球旅遊業復甦的背景下。此後，業務已基本恢復正常，但我們仍然看到成長的機會。接下來，我將請馬龍·穆拉德先生分享他在理賠方面的國際經驗，他曾負責多家國際企業的理賠業務。

Thank you, Lee. Thank you, Surinder, for the question. As I have mentioned in previous calls, we had made a decision within the international claims business to reorganize the units, splitting the U.K. and Europe about a year ago to drive more focus and growth. And that approach and the execution of the strategy has paid dividends. I'll talk about the U.K. first, which is growing with speed and focus under the leadership of Chris Sawford and his team, innovating on existing property, bodily injury and auto or motor, as we call it across the pond, solutions. And more recently, there's been a focus on the anti-fraud space within the U.K.

謝謝Lee。謝謝Surinder的提問。正如我在之前的電話會議中提到的，大約一年前，我們決定對國際理賠業務進行重組，將英國和歐洲業務拆分，以集中精力並促進成長。這項措施及其策略的執行已取得顯著成效。我先談談英國業務。在Chris Sawford及其團隊的領導下，英國業務發展迅速且目標明確，在現有的財產險、人身傷害險和汽車險（我們大西洋彼岸稱之為機動車險）解決方案上不斷創新。最近，英國業務的重點也放在了反詐騙領域。

On the European side, under the leadership of Samer Abou-Jaoudé and his team, we had entered the bodily injury market through Germany a couple of years ago through the acquisition of ACTINEO. As a matter of fact, I was just in Cologne, where we hosted a market event attended by over 70 customers who showed greater support for the body injury solutions and product offering as well as an appetite to engage more frequently with Verisk on the motor side, where we have, a few months back, made the Krug acquisition on the motor side, and that integration is proceeding well and delivering our plan.

在歐洲方面，在Samer Abou-Jaoudé及其團隊的領導下，我們幾年前透過收購ACTINEO，經由德國進入了人身傷害市場。事實上，我剛去過科隆，我們在那裡舉辦了一場市場活動，70多位客戶出席了活動，他們對我們的人身傷害解決方案和產品表現出了極大的支持，同時也表達了與Verisk在汽車領域更頻繁合作的意願。幾個月前，我們完成了對Krug汽車領域的收購，目前整合進展順利，正朝著我們的計畫穩步推進。

And last but not least, we have our Mavera acquisition in Scandinavia based out of Sweden, that delivers technology solutions for the bodily injury space. And finally, from an operating model perspective, we are leveraging our position in multiple territories with single finance, human resources, marketing, legal as well as technology platforms.

最後，我們收購了位於瑞典的斯堪的納維亞公司Mavera，該公司為身體損傷領域提供技術解決方案。此外，從營運模式的角度來看，我們正在利用我們在多個地區的優勢，建立統一的財務、人力資源、行銷、法律和技術平台。

And Surinder, just to kind of put it in context, the international revenues represent about 17% of our total, as you probably would see in the investor presentation. And I think the characteristic is that this is an opportunity for us to penetrate new markets. It is diverse, as you can hear from a lot of the businesses, so we have a number of growth factors.

蘇林德，為了更好地說明情況，正如您在投資者報告中可能看到的那樣，國際收入約占我們總收入的17%。我認為這為我們開拓新市場提供了機會。正如您從許多業務中聽到的那樣，我們的業務多元化，因此我們擁有許多成長因素。

And I would end by saying a focus also on elevating our dialogue to articulate the strategic value to international institutions as part of our strategy as well. So we're happy with the progress that we're making. We continue to see that as a substantial growth opportunity for us.

最後，我想強調，我們也應著重提升對話水平，向國際機構闡明其戰略價值，這同樣也是我們策略的一部分。我們對目前所取得的進展感到滿意，並始終認為這是一個重要的發展機會。

Your next question comes from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC.

你的下一個問題來自 Ashish Sabadra 與 RBC 的對話。

Lee, you mentioned gen AI a couple of times. And you highlighted improving an existing product as well as launching new products using gen AI. My question there was how should we think about the monetization of gen AI? Wondering if you could give some anecdotal example of some products that are coming to the market. How should we think about monetization? Will that be offered as free? Or will you be charging more for gen AI? And the third last would be the time line. How should we think about time line for some of these product launches?

李，您多次提到了「世代人工智慧」（gen AI）。您強調了利用世代人工智慧改進現有產品以及推出新產品的重要性。我的問題是，我們該如何看待世代人工智慧的商業化？能否舉出一些即將上市的產品的例子？我們應該如何考慮商業化？會免費提供嗎？還是會收取更高的費用？最後一個問題是時間安排。我們應該如何規劃這些產品的發佈時間表？

Yes. Well, thank you, Ashish. So let me give you a couple of responses to that. So first, I have to say generative AI is something that is certainly relatively new. And so there is a developing aspect to this technology and its application. And so there will be dimensions of this that we're still in the process of piloting and testing. But let me refer you back to the comments that I made around Discovery Navigator in what we are doing in the casualty space, where we are already utilizing AI, including some generative AI elements in that solution. And so generative AI is a component, kind of similar to traditional AI or machine learning that is a tool to help our clients gather data, consolidate and interpret and then utilize data.

是的。謝謝你，Ashish。那麼，就讓我就這個問題做幾點回應。首先，我必須說，生成式人工智慧確實是一個相對較新的技術。因此，這項技術及其應用都處於發展階段。我們仍在對其中的一些方面進行試點和測試。但我想回顧我之前提到的Discovery Navigator，以及我們在傷亡事故領域的工作，我們已經在使用該解決方案，其中包含一些生成式人工智慧元素。生成式人工智慧是一種元件，它類似於傳統的人工智慧或機器學習，可以幫助我們的客戶收集、整合、解釋和利用數據。

So as it relates to Discovery Navigator, there are some generative AI elements that are included in that, that we are in the process of monitoring by demonstrating the substantial ROIs by improving the speed with which they can gather that data from a workers' comp claim through all of those medical records. So that's in flight. We have other dimensions of that in certain businesses.

就 Discovery Navigator 而言，其中包含一些生成式人工智慧元素，我們正在透過提高從工傷賠償申請和所有醫療記錄中收集數據的速度來驗證其顯著的投資回報率，並對其進行監測。目前該項目正在進行中。我們在某些​​業務領域還有其他方面的應用。

The second example I would give is in utilizing generative AI from a coding perspective to improve efficiency is something that we have been exploring and testing, and we think there are internal efficiencies for us in adapting some of that technology. And then finally, what is on the horizon that I referenced in speaking to our client engagement and their enthusiasm for us to developing a product, is something that would be a copilot in an underwriting context that utilizes our datasets, our experience in supporting from an actuarial standpoint, from a rating standpoint, the underwriting process that is specifically targeted to a line of business. And that is something that is on more of the front end that we are testing and developing.

第二個例子是，我們一直在探索和測試如何從程式設計角度利用生成式人工智慧來提高效率，我們認為採用這項技術可以提升我們內部的效率。最後，正如我在談到客戶參與以及他們對我們開發產品的熱情時所提到的，我們正在開發一款產品，它將成為核保流程中的輔助工具。這款產品將利用我們的數據集以及我們在精算和評級方面的經驗，專門針對特定業務線提供承保支援。目前，我們正在測試和開發這款產品，它更偏向前端開發階段。

In the first instance, that's something that we are monetizing with Discovery Navigator. In the second instance, that's something that we hope to begin to deploy so that we can achieve efficiency in our overall coding. And in the third instance, that's going to be something that, hopefully, we develop a product. There's been a strong appetite and interest from our clients. And so if we can deliver something, that would be something we would hope to begin to monetize in the '24, '25 time frame based upon what our product development is. So a range of that, but it's a component of and an additional tool to a lot of the data and analytics work that we do.

首先，我們正在透過 Discovery Navigator 實現這項技術的商業化。其次，我們希望開始部署這項技術，以提高整體編碼效率。第三，我們希望能夠開發出一款產品。我們的客戶對此表現出了濃厚的興趣。因此，如果我們能夠交付產品，我們希望在 2024 年至 2025 年期間開始實現其商業化，具體時間取決於我們的產品開發進度。總而言之，這項技術是我們眾多數據分析工作的一個組成部分和補充工具。

(Operator Instructions) Your final question comes from the line of Russell Quelch with Redburn.

（操作員說明）你的最後一個問題來自 Russell Quelch 與 Redburn 的對話。

Sorry for the technology issues. I was wondering if you could provide us with the growth rate for the Extreme Event Solutions revenues in Q3 and year-to-date. And you made some brief comments in your prepared remarks, Elizabeth, but can you expand on what trends you saw there in Q3 and maybe what you're seeing so far in Q4? I'm wondering what you had assumed for your -- in your full year guidance for Q4 in this business area.

抱歉，技術方面出了點問題。我想請問您能否提供一下極限活動解決方案業務第三季和年初至今的營收成長率？伊莉莎白，您在事先準備好的發言稿中已經簡要提及，能否詳細說說您在第三季度觀察到的趨勢，以及您目前對第四季度的觀察？我想了解您在第四季度該業務領域的全年業績預測中做了哪些假設。

Yes. Russell, glad you're able to join us. Sorry, we don't provide specific disclosure on the Extreme Events Business and certainly not quarterly. So sorry, I can't comment on that.

是的，羅素，很高興你能加入我們。抱歉，我們不提供關於極限運動業務的具體披露信息，當然也不會按季度披露。所以很抱歉，我無法對此發表評論。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以掛斷電話了。祝您今天愉快。