Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Verisk Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位早安，歡迎參加Verisk 2022年第四季財報電話會議。本次電話會議正在錄音。 （操作說明）

For opening remarks and introductions, I would now turn -- like to turn the call over to Verisk's Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Stacey Brodbar. Ms. Brodbar, you may go ahead.

現在，我想把開場白和介紹交給Verisk的投資者關係主管Stacey Brodbar女士。 Brodbar女士，請開始吧。

Thank you, Devin, and good day, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for a discussion of our fourth quarter 2022 financial results. On the call today are Lee Shavel, Verisk's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Elizabeth Mann, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝Devin，大家好。感謝各位今天參加我們2022年第四季財務業績的討論會。今天出席電話會議的有Verisk總裁兼執行長Lee Shavel和財務長Elizabeth Mann。

The earnings release referenced on this call as well as our traditional quarterly earnings presentation and the associated 10-K can be found in the Investors section of our website, verisk.com. The earnings release has also been attached to an 8-K that we have furnished to the SEC. A replay of this call will be available for 30 days on our website and by dial-in.

本次電話會議中提及的獲利報告、我們傳統的季度獲利簡報以及相關的10-K表格，均可在公司網站verisk.com的「投資者關係」欄位中找到。該盈利報告也已附在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的8-K表格中。本次電話會議的錄音回放將在公司網站和電話接入平台上保留30天。

As set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, I will remind everyone, today's call may include forward-looking statements about Verisk's future performance, including those related to our financial guidance. Actual performance could differ materially from what is suggested by our comments today. Information about the factors that could affect future performance is contained in our recent SEC filings.

正如今天發布的財報中所詳述的那樣，我在此提醒各位，今天的電話會議可能包含有關Verisk未來業績的前瞻性陳述，包括與我們的財務指引相關的陳述。實際業績可能與我們今天所作的陳述有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的因素的信息，請參閱我們近期提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件。

Finally, I'd like to remind everyone that the financial results for recent dispositions are included in our consolidated and GAAP results, but are excluded from all organic constant currency growth figures. A reconciliation of reported and historic non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call is provided in our 8-K and today's earnings presentation posted on the Investors section of our website, verisk.com.

最後，我想提醒大家，近期資產處置的財務結果已計入我們的合併財務報表和GAAP財務報表，但未計入所有以固定匯率計算的有機增長數據。本次電話會議討論的已報告和歷史非GAAP財務指標的調節表，請參閱我們8-K表格以及今天發佈在我們網站verisk.com投資者關係欄目下的盈利演示文稿。

However, we are not able to provide a reconciliation of projected adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin to the most directly comparable expected GAAP results because of the unreasonable effort and high unpredictability of estimating certain items that are excluded from projected non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin, including, for example, tax consequences, acquisition-related costs, gain or loss from dispositions and other nonrecurring expenses, the effect of which may be significant.

然而，由於估算某些項目（例如，稅收影響、收購相關成本、處置損益和其他非經常性支出）的工作量過大且具有高度不確定性，我們無法將預計調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率與最直接可比的預期 GAAP 結果進行核對，因為這些項目不包含在預計的非 GAAP 調整後的利潤率

And now I would like to turn the call over to Lee Shavel.

現在我想把電話交給李沙維爾。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you, Stacey, and thanks to you all for participating today. We've really been looking forward to this call because it's our first opportunity to reintroduce Verisk in our new insurance-focused configuration, to discuss the momentum in the fourth quarter and given all the structural changes, give you a forward view of our expected performance in 2023. We accomplished an extraordinary amount in 2022, so let me provide a brief summary.

大家早安，謝謝Stacey，也謝謝各位今天參與。我們非常期待這次電話會議，因為這是我們首次以全新的保險業務模式重新介紹Verisk，討論第四季度的發展勢頭，並鑑於所有結構性調整，展望我們2023年的預期業績。我們在2022年取得了卓越的成就，以下我做一個簡單總結。

First, there's been a lot of structural change. In March, we sold 3E, our environmental health and safety business, for net cash proceeds of $575 million. In April, we sold Verisk Financial Services for net cash proceeds of approximately $500 million. And most recently in February, we sold Wood Mackenzie for approximately $3.1 billion.

首先，公司進行了大量的結構性調整。 3月份，我們出售了環境健康與安全業務部門3E，淨現金收益為5.75億美元。 4月份，我們出售了Verisk金融服務公司，淨現金收益約5億美元。最近，在2月份，我們以約31億美元的價格出售了伍德麥肯錫公司。

We've begun the process of returning a substantial majority of the after-tax proceeds of those transactions to shareholders through share repurchases as promised. Despite a challenging economic, geopolitical and financing environment, we were able to complete these transactions at attractive valuations through the strong underlying businesses, capable management teams and a well-organized sale process.

我們已按承諾，開始透過股票回購將這些交易稅後收益的大部分返還給股東。儘管面臨充滿挑戰的經濟、地緣政治和融資環境，但憑藉穩健的業務基礎、卓越的管理團隊和完善的出售流程，我們仍以極具吸引力的估值完成了這些交易。

Let's turn to governance change. Structural change wasn't the only transition at Verisk. We also made a number of governance changes that shareholders suggested. We are transitioning to a declassified Board with annual elections. We added 4 new directors with fresh perspectives and experiences: Jeff Dailey, Wendy Lane, Olumide Soroye and Kim Stevenson. We separated the Chairman and CEO role with the election of Bruce Hansen as our new Chair. I have to personally thank Bruce for his advice and leadership through my transition. As a former CEO, he's been a great coach to me as have been all of our directors.

讓我們來看看公司治理方面的變革。 Verisk 的轉型不僅體現在結構調整上。我們也根據股東的建議進行了一系列治理改革。我們正在向非等級制董事會過渡，並實施年度選舉。我們新增了四位董事，他們帶來了全新的視野和經驗：Jeff Dailey、Wendy Lane、Olumide Soroye 和 Kim Stevenson。我們選舉 Bruce Hansen 為新任董事長，從而實現了董事長和執行長職位的分離。我個人非常感謝 Bruce 在我過渡期間給予的建議和領導。作為前任首席執行官，他以及所有董事都給了我極大的幫助。

Let's turn to organizational change. Finally, organizationally, we've had substantial change. In addition to Scott Stephenson's retirement last year, Mark Anquillare stepping down in January and the addition of Elizabeth Mann as our CFO, we have made over a dozen changes in senior management. These have enabled the next generation of management to rise, bringing new energy and fresh perspectives on how we can make Verisk better.

接下來我們來談談組織變革。在組織架構方面，我們終於迎來了實質的變革。除了斯科特·史蒂芬森去年退休、馬克·安奎拉雷今年一月卸任以及伊麗莎白·曼恩加入公司擔任首席財務官之外，我們還對高層管理人員進行了十餘項調整。這些措施為新一代管理人才的崛起創造了條件，他們為Verisk的未來發展注入了新的活力和視角。

At the highest level, I have reconstituted our senior operating committee with 10 colleagues, 6 of whom are new to the committee, who represent a better balance of business unit leaders and corporate leaders for improved integration and coordination. I'm also proud that the committee represents 50% gender diversity and 40% ethnic diversity, a strong signal for our entire organization.

在最高層面，我重組了高階營運委員會，由10位同事組成，其中6位是新成員。這樣的組合更能平衡了業務部門領導和公司領導的比例，有助於提升整合與協調。此外，我感到自豪的是，委員會成員的性別組成達到50%，種族組成達到40%，這對我們整個組織來說都是一個強烈的訊號。

We all share the common mission of creating value for our clients, employees and shareholders. With all this change, we were, of course, carefully watching for disruption with our employees and clients. While there is some understandable anxiety with any organizational change, the feedback from employees at 3 town halls, anonymous surveys and informal feedback has been very positive, with enthusiasm for our refocused strategy in insurance and new leadership.

我們共同的使命是為客戶、員工和股東創造價值。面對所有這些變革，我們當然也密切關注著可能對員工和客戶造成的影響。雖然任何組織變革都會帶來一些可以理解的焦慮，但我們在三次全體員工大會、匿名調查和非正式回饋中都收到了非常積極的評價，員工們對我們重新調整後的保險策略和新的領導團隊充滿熱情。

In particular, our purpose of working together to build global resilience for individuals, communities and businesses has resonated strongly with our employees as has our new cultural values of learning, caring and results. As I believe all of you can appreciate, what we accomplished in terms of structure and organizational change in 2022 was no foregone conclusion, and the delivery of a clear view of our insurance-only operations in our 10-K was a massively complex exercise.

尤其值得一提的是，我們致力於攜手提升個人、社區和企業的全球韌性，這一宗旨以及我們全新的學習、關懷和成果導向的企業文化價值觀，都引起了員工的強烈共鳴。我相信大家都能理解，我們在2022年取得的組織架構和變革並非理所當然，而要在10-K文件中清晰展現我們僅專注於保險業務的運營情況，更是一項極其複雜的工作。

It required the effort, expertise and commitment of hundreds of our employees to accomplish. So I'd like to take this opportunity to personally thank all of our nearly 7,000 employees for their professionalism, commitment and understanding as we have undergone so much change in 2022. They are absolutely talented and critical to our future success.

這項工作的完成離不開數百名員工的努力、專業知識和奉獻精神。因此，我謹藉此機會親自感謝我們近7,000名員工，感謝他們在2022年我們經歷許多變革期間所展現出的專業精神、敬業精神和理解。他們才華橫溢，對我們未來的成功至關重要。

What we accomplished this year demonstrates what we're capable of ahead. On the client front, we have also received a positive response from many clients who appreciate our renewed insurance focus and desire to improve our relationships across their organizations.

我們今年的成就展現了我們未來的潛力。在客戶方面，我們也收到了許多客戶的正面回饋，他們讚賞我們重新聚焦保險業務，並渴望改善與他們組織內部各部門的關係。

I experienced this firsthand at our Elevate Conference in Salt Lake City and dozens of client meetings and calls. Their feedback reinforces that while we have been a great product organization, we can be a much better client organization. And that's an area where I'm dedicating substantial time and leading from the front. I've spent most of my career as a client professional, and I'm excited to be returning to this particular role.

我在鹽湖城的Elevate大會以及數十場客戶會議和電話中親身感受到了這一點。他們的回饋印證了這一點：雖然我們一直以來都是一家優秀的產品公司，但我們還可以成為一家更優秀的客戶服務公司。而這正是我投入大量時間並身先士卒的領域。我的職業生涯大部分時間都從事客戶服務工作，很高興能夠重返這個職位。

Let's move to financial change. I won't steal Elizabeth's thunder on the financials, however, there are 2 elements that matter most to me in our 2022 performance and what we intend to achieve in 2023.

接下來我們來談談財務上的變化。我不會搶伊莉莎白的風頭，但就我們2022年的業績以及我們2023年的目標而言，有兩個要素對我來說最為重要。

First is our ability to continue to deliver strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth despite the changes and challenging environment in 2022 and the clear momentum in the fourth quarter results. We have clearly demonstrated what Verisk is capable of in the fourth quarter by delivering organic constant currency revenue growth of over 7% in the insurance-only business even after eliminating the impact of storms. I'd also note that fiscal year 2022, the insurance OCC revenue growth of 6.5% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 8% is a solid result for a year of substantial change and macroeconomic challenges and is a strong reflection of the stability of our business and a good foundation to build on to in 2023 and beyond.

首先，儘管2022年市場環境充滿變化與挑戰，我們仍能維持強勁的營收與調整後EBITDA成長，第四季業績也展現出明顯的成長動能。第四季度，我們充分展現了Verisk的實力，即使剔除風暴的影響，光是保險業務的有機固定匯率營收成長也超過了7%。此外，2022財年保險業務的OCC營收成長6.5%，調整後EBITDA成長8%，在經歷了重大變革和宏觀經濟挑戰的一年中，這樣的成績實屬穩健，有力地體現了我們業務的穩定性，也為2023年及以後的發展奠定了良好的基礎。

Second is our delivery of clear margin improvement consistent with the clear goals we set for the insurance-focused business of 300 to 500 basis points improvement from a normalized base of 50% to 51% in 2021. At 52.7% for the fourth quarter, we are on the cusp of delivering at the low end of our targeted range of 53% to 56% for 2024. And our guidance for 2023 is our adjusted EBITDA margin to be between 53% and 54%.

其次，我們實現了利潤率的顯著提升，這與我們為保險業務設定的明確目標相符，即在2021年將正常化基數50%至51%的基礎上提升300至500個基點。第四季利潤率為52.7%，我們即將達到2024年53%至56%目標區間的下限。我們對2023年的預期是，調整後EBITDA利潤率將在53%至54%之間。

Finally, we are providing expanded financial guidance for 2023 as a reflection of the complex structural changes in 2022 as well as an expectation of more predictable growth with our refocused business. This decision also reflects the input from many of our shareholders who ask for improved financial guidance. Naturally, it will come with the necessary caveats that we can't predict all contingencies but represents our best assessment of 2023 financial performance.

最後，鑑於2022年複雜的結構性變化以及我們重新聚焦業務後預期成長將更加可預測，我們特此發布2023年財務指引的擴展版本。此舉也反映了許多股東的回饋，他們要求我們提供更完善的財務指引。當然，我們仍需說明，我們無法預測所有可能的情況，但這代表了我們對2023年財務表現的最佳評估。

So where does that leave us after all of these changes? We are, as of this moment, a new Verisk, new structurally, organizationally and with a reenergized and refocused purpose values. There's a lot that you'll be familiar with, including our insurance focus, industry centrality, strong market position, stable growth and strong margins. And some new elements that are expanding our growth opportunities in areas such as life assurance, marketing solutions and in our European businesses, including specialty business solutions, where we are improving workflows and efficiency in the Lloyd's nonstandard market. You will also see changes in our expense discipline to drive margin expansion and a new approach to providing financial guidance for the year ahead.

那麼，經過這些變革之後，我們又將走向何方？從此刻起，我們已成為一個全新的Verisk，在結構、組織架構以及重新煥發活力和聚焦的使命價值方面都煥然一新。您將會發現許多熟悉之處，例如我們對保險業務的專注、行業核心地位、強大的市場地位、穩定的成長和可觀的利潤率。同時，我們也引進了一些新的元素，以拓展我們在人壽保險、行銷解決方案以及歐洲業務（包括專業業務解決方案）等領域的成長機會。在這些領域，我們正在提升勞合社非標準市場的流程效率。您還將看到我們在成本控制方面的調整，以推動利潤率的提升，以及我們為未來一年提供財務預測的新方法。

Let's step back and take a moment to reframe our opportunity. The insurance industry is massive, complex and growing globally. Our clients face substantial technology, regulatory and macroeconomic challenges in a rapidly evolving environment. This is less an assertion than an often repeated sentiment that I hear from the leaders of our clients.

讓我們退後一步，重新審視一下我們所面臨的機會。保險業規模龐大、錯綜複雜，並且在全球範圍內不斷發展。我們的客戶在瞬息萬變的環境中，面臨巨大的技術、監管和宏觀經濟挑戰。這與其說是一種斷言，不如說是我經常從客戶領導者那裡聽到的一種觀點。

One of my favorite client quotes was, "Lee, we need Verisk's help to address this, but more importantly, the industry needs Verisk's help." That crystallizes our opportunity and position. You'll hear at Investor Day from several clients that Verisk is considered a true business partner rather than a vendor and that we work together to collectively solve problems for the insurance industry.

我最喜歡的一位客戶的評價是：「Lee，我們需要Verisk的幫助來解決這個問題，但更重要的是，整個行業都需要Verisk的幫助。」這句話清晰地概括了我們的機會和市場地位。在投資者日上，您會聽到幾位客戶表示，Verisk是他們真正的商業夥伴，而非供應商，我們攜手合作，共同解決保險業的難題。

We create value for our clients through a simple economic mechanism. We invest in data, analytics and software at scale to address industry needs much more efficiently than individual companies can. We are addressing hundreds of billions of dollars of premiums and expense across the industry to improve revenue growth, risk outcomes, client experience, productivity and margins. These investments deliver real value to the industry and in turn, drive our growth, operating leverage and high incremental returns on capital.

我們透過一套簡單的經濟機制為客戶創造價值。我們大規模投資於數據、分析和軟體，以遠超過單一公司效率的方式滿足產業需求。我們致力於解決整個產業數千億美元的保費和支出問題，進而提升收入成長、風險控制、客戶體驗、生產力和利潤率。這些投資為產業帶來真正的價值，進而推動我們自身的成長、營運槓桿和高額的資本報酬率。

Much of this opportunity is realized by facilitating connectivity across the insurance ecosystem, hence, the theme of our annual report for 2022: connecting what matters. To connect, you must be central. You must be trusted, and you must understand the needs of the ecosystem. No company is better positioned than Verisk with our scale, relationships and expertise to create this value for the insurance industry.

實現這一機會的關鍵在於促進保險生態系統的互聯互通，因此，我們2022年度報告的主題是：連結至關重要的事物。要實現互聯互通，您必須處於核心地位，必須贏得信任，並且必須了解生態系統的需求。憑藉我們的規模、人脈和專業知識，沒有任何一家公司比Verisk更有能力為保險業創造這種價值。

We're very proud of what we accomplished in 2022, but it was all to put us in this position where we can demonstrate our full potential, focused on serving the substantial and expanding needs of the insurance industry. With a reconfigured and energized organization bound together by a common purpose and values, we are very excited about the path ahead and can already feel the benefits of this better integrated and focused approach. This is the way. As our 2023 financial guidance implies and as you'll hear at our upcoming Investor Day, we believe this path will see continued growth, improving margins and strong returns on capital.

我們對2022年所取得的成就感到非常自豪，但這一切都是為了讓我們能夠充分發揮潛力，專注於滿足保險業日益增長的巨大需求。經過重組，我們擁有了一支充滿活力、目標一致的團隊，對未來充滿信心，並已感受到這種更整合和專注的模式帶來的益處。這就是我們前進的方向。正如我們2023年的財務預期以及您將在即將舉行的投資者日上聽到的那樣，我們相信這條道路將帶來持續成長、利潤率提升和強勁的資本回報。

I'll end with thanks to our shareholders, who encouraged us to consider new approaches and offered their perspectives directly or indirectly through surveys and our analyst community. We and our Board have listened carefully, and our actions and path ahead clearly reflect your input. We are here to expand the opportunity, execute on the plan and deliver value on your behalf. I can't imagine us being in a better position to do so, and we're off to a solid start.

最後，我要感謝各位股東，是你們鼓勵我們探索新的發展方向，並透過問捲和分析師社群等各種方式直接或間接地提出了寶貴意見。我們和董事會認真聽取了各位的意見，我們的行動和未來的發展方向都充分體現了你們的貢獻。我們將致力於拓展機遇，落實計劃，並為你們創造價值。我相信我們現在所處的位置再好不過了，而且我們已經取得了良好的開端。

With that, I'll hand it over to Elizabeth to review our financial results for the quarter, the year and our financial guidance for 2023.

接下來，我將把工作交給伊莉莎白，由她來審查我們本季、本年度的財務表現以及我們對 2023 年的財務預測。

Thanks, Lee, and good day to everyone on the call. Before I start with the fourth quarter results, I have a few reminders for everyone. First, all consolidated and GAAP numbers are negatively impacted by the dispositions of 3E and Verisk Financial Services. This effect will continue through the first quarter of 2023 when we will anniversary those transactions.

謝謝Lee，也祝各位電話會議成員今天愉快。在開始介紹第四季業績之前，我先提醒大家幾點。首先，所有合併報表和GAAP財務數據均受到3E和Verisk Financial Services出售的負面影響。這種影響將持續到2023年第一季度，屆時我們將迎來這些交易的周年紀念。

Second, as we described previously, due to its materiality, Wood Mackenzie is accounted for as discontinued operations beginning this quarter. And its results are not included in our revenue or adjusted EBITDA results in either the current period or the prior period.

其次，如我們先前所述，由於其重要性，伍德麥肯錫公司自本季起被列為終止經營業務。其業績不計入本期及上期的收入或調整後EBITDA。

Third, in the earnings presentation now posted on the Investors section of our website, we have included certain pro forma quarterly financial metrics, removing the operational results of all our divestitures as well as a reconciliation to our historical reported results, which we hope you will find helpful.

第三，在現已發佈於我們網站投資者關係部分的收益報告中，我們納入了一些備考季度財務指標，剔除了所有剝離業務的運營結果，並與我們歷史報告的業績進行了核對，希望您能從中受益。

Turning now to the financial results. I'm pleased to share that we had a strong finish to 2022. For the fourth quarter on a consolidated and GAAP basis, revenue was $630 million, up slightly versus the prior year, reflecting growth in insurance, offset by the impact of the VFS and 3E dispositions. Income from continuing operations was $216 million, while diluted GAAP earnings per share attributable to Verisk was $1.37.

現在來看財務業績。我很高興地告訴大家，我們在2022年取得了強勁的收官成績。第四季度，以合併及GAAP準則計算，營收為6.3億美元，較上年同期略有成長，主要得益於保險業務的成長，但部分被VFS和3E資產處置的影響所抵銷。持續經營業務的淨利為2.16億美元，歸屬於Verisk的稀釋後GAAP每股收益為1.37美元。

Moving to our organic constant currency results adjusted for nonoperating items as defined in the non-GAAP financial measures section of our press release, we are very pleased with our operating results, which demonstrated strong sequential improvement relative to the third quarter as a broad-based recovery across our business contributed to the strongest quarter of the year. In the fourth quarter, OCC revenues grew 8.1%, with growth of 6.5% in underwriting and rating and 11.9% in claims. This quarter's results included $5.6 million in storm-related revenue associated with Hurricane Ian. Excluding the storm-related revenues, OCC revenue would have grown 7.1%.

根據新聞稿中「非GAAP財務指標」部分定義的非經營性項目，調整後的自然成長（以固定匯率計算）結果令我們非常滿意。我們的經營業績較第三季實現了強勁的環比成長，這得益於業務的全面復甦，並促成了全年表現最佳的季度。第四季度，OCC收入成長8.1%，其中承保和評級業務成長6.5%，理賠業務成長11.9%。本季業績包含與颶風伊恩相關的560萬美元風暴相關收入。若剔除風暴相關收入，OCC收入將成長7.1%。

Our subscription revenues, which comprise 80% of our total revenue in the quarter, grew 7.2% on an OCC basis. We saw broad-based growth across most of our businesses with strength in core underwriting, property estimating solutions, extreme events, antifraud and life insurance solutions.

本季度，訂閱收入佔總營收的80%，以OCC計算成長7.2%。我們的大部分業務都實現了全面成長，其中核心核保、財產估價解決方案、極端事件、反詐欺和人壽保險解決方案表現尤為強勁。

We did experience a modest negative impact from the liquidations in Florida. As we noted in previous calls, Florida has been a trouble spot for the insurance industry, and the losses from Hurricane Ian add complications. In 2022, the market saw 6 liquidations. And so far in '23, we have seen one company placed into receivership after higher-than-expected losses from Hurricane Ian pushed the carrier into insolvency.

佛羅裡達州的清算確實為我們帶來了一些負面影響。正如我們在之前的電話會議中提到的，佛羅裡達州一直是保險業的“問題重重之地”，而颶風伊恩造成的損失更是雪上加霜。 2022年，市場出現了6起清算事件。而到了2023年，我們已經看到一家公司因颶風伊恩造成的遠超預期的損失而破產，並被接管。

We continue to work to offset this headwind through engagement with our customers by helping them adapt to Florida's new roof coverage rules and by better segmenting risk using both new and existing sources such as our roof age data and aerial imagery. Our analytics have been integrated into our LightSpeed platform and can help customers leverage data earlier in their quoting process, ensuring they underwrite risk appropriately as well as help drive nonrate action for in-force policies.

我們持續努力透過與客戶的互動來抵消這一不利因素，幫助他們適應佛羅裡達州新的屋頂保險法規，並利用屋頂使用年限數據和空拍圖像等現有和新增資源來更好地進行風險細分。我們的分析功能已整合到 LightSpeed 平台中，可協助客戶在報價流程早期利用數據，確保他們能夠合理核保風險，並有助於推動有效保單的非費率調整。

Transactional OCC revenue growth of 12.1%, representing 20% of total revenue in the fourth quarter, also improved from the third quarter, reflecting the revenues associated with Hurricane Ian. Adjusting for the storm impact, transactional growth was a healthy 8.2%, comprised of continued strong recovery in international travel, strong sales of life insurance solutions and a modest contribution from our workers' compensation business, which is improving though continues to be below pre-pandemic levels. This was offset in part by continued weakness across auto underwriting and marketing solutions.

第四季交易業務營收成長12.1%，佔總營收的20%，較第三季有所改善，主要得益於颶風伊恩帶來的營收成長。剔除颶風影響後，交易業務收入成長8.2%，表現穩健，主要得益於國際旅遊的持續強勁復甦、人壽保險解決方案的強勁銷售，以及工傷賠償業務的適度貢獻（儘管該業務正在改善，但仍低於疫情前水平）。汽車核保和行銷解決方案業務的持續疲軟部分抵消了上述成長。

On the auto underwriting side, we continue to see cyclical softness across our auto underwriting and marketing solutions as carriers are dealing with the impact of rising inflation and increasing loss ratios. To that end, carriers have pulled back on underwriting new auto policies as well as on marketing spending to drive new policy volume and customer acquisition.

在汽車保險承保方面，由於保險公司正努力應對通膨上升和賠付率增加的影響，我們的汽車保險承保和行銷解決方案持續呈現週期性疲軟態勢。因此，保險公司減少了新汽車保單的承保量，也削減了用於推動新保單數量增長和客戶獲取的營銷支出。

Carriers are working to reset pricing, which we think could take another 6 to 12 months to truly take effect. To help our customers bridge this uncertain time and drive growth for Verisk, we are working with them to help identify ways to improve profitability with targeted nonrate actions that minimize premium leakage. We are actively engaging with customers about our risk check renewal product, which allows insurance -- which allows insurers to analyze an entire book of business with minimal IT resources and pinpoint policies that require attention.

保險公司正在努力調整定價，我們認為這可能還需要 6 到 12 個月才能真正生效。為了幫助客戶渡過這段不確定時期，並推動 Verisk 的業務成長，我們正與他們合作，尋找透過有針對性的非費率措施來提高獲利能力的方法，從而最大限度地減少保費流失。我們正在積極與客戶溝通，介紹我們的風險檢查續保產品。該產品允許保險公司以最少的 IT 資源分析整個業務組合，並精準定位需要關注的保單。

Moving now to our adjusted EBITDA results. OCC adjusted EBITDA growth was 12.9% in the fourth quarter, reflecting core operating leverage and the impact of certain cost reduction actions we have taken in connection with our margin expansion objectives.

接下來來看我們調整後的 EBITDA 績效。 OCC 第四季調整後的 EBITDA 成長率為 12.9%，這反映了核心營運槓桿效應以及我們為實現利潤率提升目標而採取的某些成本削減措施的影響。

Total adjusted EBITDA margin, which includes both organic and inorganic results, was 52.7%, up 210 basis points from the reported results in the prior year, reflecting the benefit from recent dispositions, strong cost and operational discipline, the impact of certain cost reduction actions and the high incremental margins associated with storm-related revenue. This level of margin also includes a number of margin headwinds, including approximately 110 basis points from recent acquisitions as well as 80 basis points from the headwinds from our ongoing technological transformation and higher T&E expenses.

經調整後的EBITDA利潤率（包括內生成長和外延成長）為52.7%，較上年同期成長210個基點，主要得益於近期資產處置、嚴格的成本控制和營運管理、部分成本削減措施的影響以及與風暴相關的收入帶來的高增量利潤。然而，這項利潤率也受到一些不利因素的影響，包括近期收購帶來的約110個基點，以及持續的技術轉型和差旅費用增加帶來的約80個基點。

In addition, this quarter included certain onetime or nonoperating expenses including severance, FX impact and a decrease in our pension credit, which collectively negatively impacted margins by 190 basis points. Finally, if you compare the fourth quarter margins on a pro forma basis for all divestitures, the 4Q 2022 margins of 52.7% represent an 80 basis point margin expansion from 51.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021 pro forma.

此外，本季包含一些一次性或非經營性支出，例如遣散費、匯率波動影響以及退休金抵免額的減少，這些因素合計使利潤率下降了190個基點。最後，如果將所有剝離業務的利潤率按備考基準進行比較，2022年第四季的利潤率為52.7%，較2021年第四季的備考利潤率51.9%提高了80個基點。

Reflecting on our objective to deliver 300 to 500 basis points of margin improvement in 2024 from a normalized base of 50% to 51% in 2021, we took great strides in 2022, with full year adjusted EBITDA margin of 52% on a pro forma basis reflecting approximately 140 basis points of margin expansion associated with our operational excellence focus. To date, we have made decisions and taken actions to address more than 60% of the run rate cost savings we are targeting.

回顧我們2024年將利潤率在2021年50%至51%的正常基數基礎上提高300至500個基點的目標，我們在2022年取得了顯著進展，全年調整後EBITDA利潤率（按備考基準計算）達到52%，這反映了我們專注於卓越運營所帶來的約140個提升率。到目前為止，我們已做出決策並採取行動，以實現我們預期成本節約目標的60%以上。

The impact of those actions will be realized through 2024 with about 30% of the cumulated expected cost savings already achieved in the reported results in 2022. Our business continues to demonstrate the operating leverage embedded in our data analytics business model, and we have confidence in our ability to deliver on the objective in 2024.

這些措施的影響將在2024年逐步顯現，2022年公佈的業績顯示，累計預期成本節約已實現約30%。我們的業務持續展現出資料分析業務模式所蘊含的營運槓桿效應，我們有信心在2024年實現既定目標。

Interest expense. Interest expense totaled $41 million for the fourth quarter compared to $30.2 million in the prior year. For the full year, interest expense totaled $139 million versus $127 million in 2021. This increase in interest expense is related to higher balances on our revolving credit facility as well as higher interest rates.

利息支出。第四季利息支出總額為 4,100 萬美元，而上年同期為 3,020 萬美元。全年利息支出總額為 1.39 億美元，而 2021 年為 1.27 億美元。利息支出增加與循環信貸額度餘額增加以及利率上升有關。

We have paid off all borrowings under our credit facility as of February 2023. And in the near term, we'll look to establish a go-forward balance sheet for the business, staying within our targeted leverage range of 2 to 3x adjusted EBITDA.

截至 2023 年 2 月，我們已償還了信貸安排下的所有借款。近期，我們將著手為公司建立穩健的資產負債表，並將槓桿比率控制在調整後 EBITDA 的 2 至 3 倍目標範圍內。

Taxes. Our reported effective tax rate was 9.9% compared to 16.8% in the prior year quarter. This lower tax rate included a onetime benefit of approximately $30 million, which was primarily the result of transaction benefits related to our Wood Mackenzie divestitures, offset in part by lower stock compensation benefits versus the prior year period.

稅項。我們報告的實際稅率為9.9%，而去年同期為16.8%。較低的稅率包含約3,000萬美元的一次性收益，這主要源自於我們出售伍德麥肯錫資產的交易收益，但部分被較上年同期較低的股票補償收益所抵銷。

For the full year '22, our effective tax rate was 17.5% as compared to 22.8% in the prior year, including approximately $67.7 million in benefits related to all our dispositions throughout the year. The net effects of these transaction-related tax benefits was a reduction in our full year effective tax rate of 5.4%.

2022年全年，我們的實際稅率為17.5%，而上一年為22.8%，其中包括與全年所有資產處置相關的約6,770萬美元的稅收優惠。這些交易相關的稅收優惠使我們全年的實際稅率降低了5.4%。

Adjusted net income and diluted adjusted EPS. Adjusted net income increased 14% to $225 million, and diluted adjusted EPS increased 18% to $1.43 for the fourth quarter '22. These changes reflect organic growth in the business, contributions from acquisitions, a lower effective tax rate and a lower average share count.

經調整淨利和攤薄後經調整每股收益。 2022年第四季，經調整淨利成長14%至2.25億美元，攤薄後經調整每股盈餘成長18%至1.43美元。這些變化反映了業務的內生成長、收購帶來的貢獻、較低的實際稅率以及平均流通股數量的減少。

Capital returns. During the fourth quarter, we returned $514 million in capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends as our strong cash flow allows us to consistently return capital to shareholders while also investing in our business.

資本回報。第四季度，我們透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了5.14億美元的資本。強勁的現金流使我們能夠在持續投資業務的同時，也持續向股東返還資本。

In particular, included in that amount is $366 million of share repurchases we have completed since the announcement of the Wood Mackenzie transaction back in November. In the coming days, we intend to enter into an additional $2.5 billion accelerated share repurchase agreement for a total capital return of $2.87 billion associated with the transaction proceeds. This is consistent with our plan to return the majority of the proceeds from the Wood Mackenzie divestiture to shareholders via share repurchases. We continue to expect the dilution from the transaction to be within the 4% to 6% range.

具體而言，該金額包含了自去年11月宣布收購伍德麥肯錫交易以來我們已完成的3.66億美元股票回購。未來幾天，我們計劃簽署一項額外的25億美元加速股票回購協議，使本次交易收益相關的總資本返還達到28.7億美元。這符合我們透過股票回購將伍德麥肯錫剝離所得的大部分收益返還給股東的計劃。我們仍預期本次交易的股權稀釋比例將在4%至6%之間。

Looking ahead to 2023, as Lee mentioned, we have listened to shareholder feedback, and we'll now be providing annual financial guidance. We have posted a summary of all guidance measures in the earnings deck on the Investors section of our website, verisk.com.

展望2023年，正如Lee所提到的，我們已聽取股東的回饋意見，並將提供年度財務指引。我們已在公司網站verisk.com「投資者關係」欄目的獲利報告中發布了所有指引措施的摘要。

Specifically, for 2023, we expect consolidated revenue to be in the range of $2.59 billion to $2.63 billion versus $2.437 billion in 2022 pro forma. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $1.37 billion to $1.42 billion versus $1.266 billion in 2022 pro forma and adjusted EBITDA margin to be in the range of 53% to 54%.

具體而言，我們預計2023年合併收入將在25.9億美元至26.3億美元之間，而2022年以備考數據計算為24.37億美元。我們預計調整後EBITDA將在13.7億美元至14.2億美元之間，而2022年按備考數據計算為12.66億美元，調整後EBITDA利潤率將在53%至54%之間。

Working further down the P&L, we expect fixed asset D&A to be between $175 million and $195 million and intangible amortization to be approximately $70 million. Both depreciation and amortization elements are subject to FX variability, the timing of purchases, the completion of projects and future M&A activity.

進一步分析損益表，我們預期固定資產折舊和攤提將在1.75億美元至1.95億美元之間，無形資產攤銷約7,000萬美元。折舊和攤銷均受匯率波動、採購時間、專案完成情況以及未來併購活動的影響。

We also expect capital expenditures to be between $200 million and $230 million as we continue to invest organically behind our highest return on investment opportunities. These include a modernization of our core line services to digitize our industry standard offering and enable expansion into new workflows that improve productivity for the industry. We are also investing in an upgrade of our financial and human capital systems that will enable future efficiencies once implemented.

我們預期資本支出將在2億至2.3億美元之間，我們將持續增加對高回報投資機會的投入。這些投入包括核心業務服務進行現代化改造，以實現業界標準產品的數位化，並拓展至新的工作流程，進而提升產業生產力。此外，我們也正在投資升級財務和人力資本系統，一旦投入使用，將顯著提高未來的營運效率。

As previously communicated, we expect the tax rate to be in the range of 23% to 25%, bringing adjusted earnings per share to a range of $5.20 to $5.50. This range represents strong double-digit growth rates on EPS after normalizing for the impact of transaction tax benefits in 2022.

如同先前所溝通的，我們預期稅率將在23%至25%之間，調整後每股收益將在5.20美元至5.50美元之間。這一區間意味著，在剔除2022年交易稅收優惠的影響後，每股盈餘將達到強勁的兩位數成長率。

Before I turn the call over to Lee, I just want to remind everyone that we will be hosting an Investor Day on March 14 here in Jersey City, where we will provide more transparency and clarity on our strategic profile, growth drivers and long-term financial targets.

在將電話交給李之前，我想提醒大家，我們將於 3 月 14 日在澤西市舉辦投資者日活動，屆時我們將更加透明、清晰地介紹我們的戰略概況、增長動力和長期財務目標。

And now I will turn the call back over to Lee for some closing comments.

現在我將把電話轉回給李，請他做一些總結發言。

Thanks, Elizabeth. In summary, we are excited to focus all our attention, talent and resources on the global insurance industry where we can deliver substantial value to our clients through improved decision-making and operational efficiency. We will be engaged more intensively as a strategic technology partner to our clients and the broader insurance industry to identify and develop ways for Verisk to support their objectives.

謝謝伊麗莎白。總而言之，我們很高興能將所有精力、才能和資源集中在全球保險業，透過提升決策效率和營運效率，為客戶創造巨大價值。我們將更深入地與客戶及整個保險業合作，成為他們的策略技術合作夥伴，共同探索和開發Verisk如何幫助他們實現目標。

With our scale, relationships and expertise, we are well positioned to help make those connections in this period of accelerated change for the industry and by extension, to the people and communities they serve. Our motivating purpose is to work together with our clients in building resilience for individuals, communities and businesses globally. Combined with our focused business model and unique market position, this is a formula that will deliver value to our shareholders through growth and returns.

憑藉我們的規模、人脈和專業知識，我們有能力在業界加速變革的時期，以及由此延伸至其所服務的民眾和社區，建立起有效的聯繫。我們始終秉持著與客戶攜手合作的宗旨，致力於增強全球個人、社群和企業的韌性。結合我們專注的商業模式和獨特的市場地位，我們將透過成長和回報為股東創造價值。

We continue to appreciate the support and interest in Verisk. (Operator Instructions) With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

我們衷心感謝大家對 Verisk 的支持與關注。 （操作員指示）接下來，我將請操作員開通線路，接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

Congrats on the results today and particularly, I think your progress on the margin front. You talked about hitting 53% to 54% margin in '23. And as you mentioned, that will essentially be at the low end of the '24 target range. Does this change your strategy around investment, meaning does this allow you to go more aggressively after growth opportunities, just given that your margin is in a really solid place?

恭喜你今天的成績，尤其令我欣慰的是你在利潤率上的進展。你提到2023年利潤率將達到53%到54%。正如你所說，這基本上處於2024年目標範圍的下限。鑑於你的利潤率已經非常穩健，這是否會改變你的投資策略？也就是說，這是否意味著你可以更積極地尋求成長機會？

Thanks, Toni. I'm going to hand it over to Elizabeth to respond.

謝謝，托尼。我這就把問題交給伊莉莎白回覆。

Thanks, Toni. I don't think it changes our overall strategy. We are committed to the targets delivering in '24. We're happy to be in the low end of that range already ahead of schedule. But we'll maintain that level of focus on margin while still maintaining investment in the business as we've been balancing so far.

謝謝，托尼。我認為這不會改變我們的整體策略。我們致力於在2024年實現既定目標。我們很高興能夠提前達到目標範圍的下限。但我們將繼續關注利潤率，同時像以往一樣保持對業務的投資平衡。

Yes. And Toni, I'll just add, I think we're very comfortable in our ability to meet those targets, to build on that while still continuing to support the growth objectives that we have for the business.

是的。東尼，我還要補充一點，我認為我們非常有信心能夠實現這些目標，並在此基礎上繼續發展，同時繼續支持我們為公司設定的成長目標。

Our next question comes from George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的喬治唐。

You've reaffirmed your commitment to deliver 300 to 500 bps of EBITDA margin improvement from a normalized base of 50% to 51% in 2021. Recently, you restated historical financials suggesting an insurance-only Verisk has normalized EBITDA margins of approximately 52%. Can you discuss upside potential to your 53% to 56% 2024 target for EBITDA margins?

您已重申承諾，2021年將EBITDA利潤率從50%至51%的正常基數提高300至500個基點。近期，您重述了歷史財務數據，顯示僅專注於保險業務的Verisk的正常EBITDA利潤率約為52%。能否談談2024年EBITDA利潤率目標（53%至56%）的提升潛力？

Yes. Thanks. We remain committed to that range. Right now, I'm here talking about 2023. I think there's been some headwinds in '22 that we've talked about previously as well as some benefits to the business. So on balance, we're committed to the range.

是的，謝謝。我們仍然致力於該系列產品。目前，我主要談的是2023年。我認為2022年我們遇到了一些之前討論過的不利因素，但也有一些對業務有利的因素。所以總的來說，我們仍然致力於該系列產品。

Our next question comes from Heather Balsky with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的希瑟‧巴爾斯基。

I'll continue the streak of margin questions on the Q&A and just ask, if you could help us just bridge a little bit more what gets you to 53% to 54%, what's coming from the savings? What's sort of the impact from the stranded costs and some of the other chunkier lines that kind of get you from '22 to '23?

我將繼續在問答環節提出關於利潤率的問題，請問您能否再詳細解釋一下，是什麼讓利潤率達到 53% 到 54%？節省的成本來自哪裡？擱淺成本和其他一些較大的項目對利潤率的影響是什麼？這些因素是如何讓利潤率從 2022 年延續到 2023 年的？

Yes. Let me talk a little bit about that. If you start with the baseline '22 of 52%, that pro forma, that already includes the headwinds from stranded costs, and it includes most of the headwinds from recent M&A. As we move forward on that, there is still a little bit more headwinds from those previously identified items in our baseline, call it about 30 basis points collectively from ongoing impact of the T&E normalization, the cloud and technology investments, including some of the financial and human capital systems that we talked about. So call those investments 30 basis points.

是的。讓我稍微談談這一點。如果以2022年的基準值52%為例，這個預估資料已經包含了擱淺成本帶來的不利影響，以及近期併購帶來的大部分不利影響。隨著我們繼續推進，基準值中先前確定的那些項目仍然存在一些不利影響，我們暫且稱之為30個基點，這些不利影響主要來自差旅費用正常化、雲端運算和技術投資，包括我們之前提到的一些財務和人力資本系統。所以，就把這些投資的影響算作30個基點吧。

There's probably still 30 basis points of headwind also from the pension credit, which we know today based on current assumptions, will be -- will continue to be a drag in 2023. Offsetting that, you'll see -- so that's about 60 basis points. Collectively, that's offsetting about 150 to 250 basis points of sort of core operating leverage. I haven't broken that down between operating leverage, growth impact and the cost savings target, but those are all included in that 150 to 250 basis points, bringing us to the net of 100 to 200 basis points margin expansion.

退休金抵免可能仍會帶來30個基點的阻力，根據我們目前的假設，我們知道這在2023年仍將是一個拖累因素。抵銷這部分阻力，你會看到──大約是60個基點。總的來說，這可以抵消大約150到250個基點的核心營運槓桿。我沒有將這150到250個基點細分為營運槓桿、成長影響和成本節約目標，但這些都包含在內，最終淨利潤率提升了100到200個基點。

Our next question comes from Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Ashish Sabadra。

Changing gears and moving to the top line, really strong OCC growth in the quarter. I was wondering for your 2023 guidance, what is the organic constant currency assumption for that guidance range?

轉換話題，來看看營收方面，本季有機成長非常強勁。我想問一下，對於2023年的業績指引，你們的有機成長（以固定匯率計算）假設是多少？

And then as we think about a quarterly cadence, I was wondering if you could provide any color on that? And any color on the puts and takes as we think about auto underwriting coming back, worker comp improving as well as any color on pricing trends and comping some of the Florida insurance headwinds. So any incremental color...

那麼，在考慮季度節奏時，我想請您提供一些細節資訊？另外，鑑於汽車承保業務的復甦、工傷賠償的改善，以及定價趨勢和佛羅裡達州保險業面臨的一些不利因素，您能否就此提供一些看法？總之，任何補充資料…

That's like a 4-part question. So let's choose -- I would consider that multiple choice.

這就像一個四部分的問題。所以我們來選擇——我會把它看作是多項選擇題。

I'll try to hit the main points there. So on the OCC revenue growth, we haven't given that on a forecasted basis. We will report that out as the quarters develop. The one piece I'll slide for you, for 2023, the acquisitions that roll in from inorganic to organic are not -- don't create a major swing in the growth rates. And obviously, FX is -- we're not predicting.

我盡量把重點都說清楚。關於OCC的營收成長，我們目前還沒有給出預測數據。我們會隨著季度的推進而陸續公佈。另外，我還要補充一點，2023年，從非有機成長到有機成長的收購不會對成長率造成太大影響。顯然，外匯市場的情況我們目前無法預測。

In terms of, you asked about the quarterly cadence of how that plays out, there's nothing that we see here today that would imply a meaningful swing in the quarters from a financial perspective. If you look at the OCC comparability results to 2022, those could have some swings just based on the swings in '22.

至於您提到的季度週期性變化，目前來看，從財務角度來看，沒有任何跡象表明季度業績會出現顯著波動。如果您查看與2022年OCC業績的可比性分析結果，這些結果可能會因2022年的波動而出現一些波動。

Our next question comes from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的史蒂芬妮·摩爾。

This is Hans Hoffman on for Stephanie. Congrats on the strong quarter. Just wanted to talk a bit about your strategy within insurance, specifically internationally and just how organic growth is trending there. And then just kind of maybe as part of that, are there any acquisitions in the international pipeline that could help you gain further critical mass there going forward?

這裡是漢斯·霍夫曼，替史蒂芬妮發言。恭喜你們本季業績強勁。我想和你們聊聊保險業的策略，特別是國際業務，以及你們在國際市場的自然成長趨勢。另外，作為策略的一部分，你們目前是否有任何國際收購計劃，可以幫助你們在未來進一步擴大規模？

Yes. Thank you for the question. Let me try to address the components of that. So I think I outlined in my comments the general strategy where we are looking to make investments in data or technology that solve industry problems that we can monetize across that industry. And that strategy really holds across the business.

是的，謝謝你的提問。讓我試著解釋一下其中的幾個組成部分。我想我在先前的演講中已經概述了我們的整體策略，即投資於能夠解決行業難題的數據或技術，並在整個行業中實現盈利。而且，這項策略其實適用於我們公司的各個業務領域。

Internationally where we've had a very solid success of finding businesses that have established products in international context, and I'll use our acquisition of Sequel as an example. We have taken that business, we have found ways to support that with addition of other components such as a rate-making component or a binding component in that business that add value to the total offering for our business, thereby integrating components for the market participants in that ecosystem. We will continue to look for opportunities to leverage those types of additions as well as data sets and functionality that we have within the U.S. business.

在國際市場上，我們取得了非常成功的案例，找到了在國際市場擁有成熟產品的企業，例如我們收購的Sequel。我們收購了這家公司，並找到了支持其發展的方法，例如為其添加定價組件或綁定組件，從而提升了我們整體業務的價值，並整合了生態系統中市場參與者所需的組件。我們將繼續尋找機會，利用這些新增元件以及我們在美國業務中擁有的資料集和功能。

We recently made an acquisition in Sweden, and you may be familiar with both our acquisitions of ACTINEO in Germany and Opta where we're deploying similar strategies. And generally, across our international businesses, we have been able to deliver growth faster than our overall rate and generally in the double-digit range because of the penetration opportunities we have within those marketplaces. So hopefully that ties together both, our general strategy and how it applies internationally and the contributions to growth from each of those elements.

我們最近在瑞典完成了一項收購，您可能也了解我們在德國收購的ACTINEO和Opta，我們在這兩家公司都採用了類似的策略。整體而言，由於我們在這些市場擁有巨大的滲透潛力，我們的國際業務成長速度普遍高於整體水平，通常達到兩位數。希望以上內容能清楚闡述我們的整體策略及其在國際市場的實施情況，以及各要素對成長的貢獻。

Our next question comes from Jeff Meuler with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Jeff Meuler。

I want to ask about the pickup in claims underlying growth normalized for the discrete storm revenue. I mean it's a pretty big step-up, so I'm just trying to understand, were there any other like onetime benefits in the quarter? Is this mostly about COVID recovery because the factors you cited were things like recovery in international travel and workers' comp? Or what I'm really looking for, was there like a pickup in like cross-selling and upselling trends in the business, and the stepped-up growth rate could be sustainable?

我想問一下，在剔除風暴災害相關收入的影響後，理賠業務的成長是否真的有所提升。我的意思是，這個成長幅度相當大，所以我想了解一下，這個季度是否還有其他一次性的利多因素？這主要是受新冠疫情復甦的影響嗎？因為您提到的因素包括國際旅行和工傷賠償的恢復？或者，我真正想知道的是，業務中的交叉銷售和向上銷售趨勢是否有所回升，以及這種成長速度是否可持續？

Thanks, Jeff. So I would say the general dimension has been that it has been the normalization of activity across the business in a couple of fronts, driving activity being one of that. I think that has had a positive improvement in some of our antifraud categories. Elizabeth made reference to some of the return to growth in our workers' comp businesses. And I think on the property estimating side, I think we've seen higher and more normalized levels of activity. Some of that -- well, excluding the actual storm revenue, I just think we have seen more activity.

謝謝傑夫。總的來說，我認為業務的各個面向都已趨於正常化，其中就包括業務活動。我認為這對我們的一些反詐騙業務類別產生了積極影響。伊莉莎白提到了我們工傷賠償業務的復甦。我認為在財產估價方面，我們也看到了更高且更正常的業務活動水平。除了實際的風暴災害收入之外，我認為我們看到了業務活動的增加。

I'd ask my colleague, Maroun Mourad, who leads our claims business if there's anything that he'd like to add to that, the general pickup that we've seen in the claims business.

我會問我的同事馬龍·穆拉德（Maroun Mourad），他是我們理賠業務的負責人，他是否還有什麼要補充的，關於我們在理賠業務中看到的普遍好轉。

Thank you. Thank you, Lee. Thank you, Jeff, for the question. We've been experiencing overall healthy growth across all the different claims businesses that we've got. So in addition to the comments made by Elizabeth and Lee around property estimating solutions as well as the casualty workers' comp business, we continue to see new customer engagements that is resulting in very healthy growth activity across our antifraud suite of solutions. Thank you.

謝謝。謝謝Lee。謝謝Jeff的提問。我們所有理賠業務整體都保持著良好的成長動能。除了Elizabeth和Lee提到的房產估價解決方案以及工傷賠償業務之外，我們還持續看到新客戶的加入，這推動了我們反詐欺解決方案套件的強勁成長。謝謝。

Our next question comes from Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的安德魯·施泰納曼。

This is Alex Hess on for Andrew Steinerman. I want to ask maybe a bit about retention rate and the pressures you saw from Florida. And then as a sort of second part to that question, any sort of operational or balance sheet efficiency statistics you can provide for the stand-alone insurance Verisk? So to that Florida question, maybe what are -- what was your retention rate in '23 and then -- in '22? And what was it sort of ex Florida?

這裡是Alex Hess，代Andrew Steinerman。我想問一下關於客戶留存率以及您在佛羅裡達州遇到的壓力。作為這個問題的補充，您能否提供一些關於獨立保險公司Verisk的營運或資產負債表效率方面的統計數據？關於佛羅裡達州的問題，您2023年和2022年的留存率分別是多少？剔除佛羅裡達州的影響後，留存率又是多少？

So Alex, thanks. I would say we are experiencing continued high client retention rates. And I think what we talked about, there's been one liquidation in Florida. And so that's something that we have called out. But I don't think -- and I look to my colleague, Neil Spector, here to see if there are, other than that situation, whether we have seen any changes in our overall retention on the underwriting side of the business. So I think those remain very solid. We're watching it carefully because of the risks in Florida. But to date, I think we've only had one liquidation.

亞歷克斯，謝謝。我想說，我們的客戶留存率一直都很高。正如我們之前討論的，佛羅裡達州出現了一起清算事件，我們已經對此進行了說明。但我認為——我請我的同事尼爾·斯佩克特來回答，除了這種情況之外，我們在承保業務方面的整體留存率是否發生了任何變化。我認為這些留存率仍然非常穩固。由於佛羅裡達州存在風險，我們正在密切關注。但到目前為止，我認為我們只發生了一起清算事件。

Neil, anything you'd like to add?

尼爾，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Thanks, Lee. No, I think you summarized it well. I would just say that while there are potential for liquidations down there, there's also new formations of companies that come into the market because there's need for coverage, which gives us opportunities. So just -- it isn't a one-way flow of businesses exiting, there's businesses entering as well, which helps offset some of that.

謝謝，李。不，我覺得你總結得很好。我只想說，雖然那裡有清算的可能性，但也有新的公司成立進入市場，因為市場需要保險覆蓋，這給我們帶來了機會。所以——企業退出並非單向流動，也有企業進入，這有助於抵銷部分影響。

Thank you. And the question, I don't know, on the operational and the balance sheet, Elizabeth, I think, can respond.

謝謝。至於營運報表和資產負債表的問題，我不太清楚，我想伊莉莎白應該可以回答。

Yes. Thanks for that, Alex. We haven't -- I don't have any specific stats pulled out on that right now. But I think in general, the insurance business is the most cash flow generative and sort of the most capital efficient of our former businesses. It generates strong free cash flow, negative working capital characteristics and high kind of yield on EBITDA.

是的，謝謝你，Alex。我們還沒有──我現在沒有這方面的具體數據。但我認為整體而言，保險業務是我們之前所有業務中現金流最充裕、資本效率最高的。它能產生強勁的自由現金流，營運資本為負，息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率（EBITDA）也很高。

And when I think about balance sheet efficiency, Alex, I think the most striking thing is that with these dispositions, we have released a lot of capital that was not generating as high a return as in our core insurance businesses. And so I think you will see that in the return on invested capital, particularly as we utilize the proceeds to repurchase shares. That's probably the most significant balance sheet efficiency in my mind.

亞歷克斯，說到資產負債表效率，我認為最顯著的一點是，透過這些資產處置，我們釋放了大量原本收益不如核心保險業務的資本。因此，我認為你會從投資報酬率中看到這一點，尤其是在我們利用所得資金回購股票的情況下。在我看來，這或許是提升資產負債表效率最重要的一環。

Our next question comes from Greg Peters with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Greg Peters。

Lee, in your comments, you acknowledged all the changes that the company has gone through over the last year. Now that you're laser-focused on the insurance piece, can you talk about how you're tracking customer satisfaction? Specifically, is there something like a comprehensive customer survey that you're using, where you can collect unfiltered feedback rather than just looking at retention numbers and feedback you get at conferences?

李先生，您在發言中提到了公司過去一年來經歷的所有變化。現在您專注於保險業務，能否談談您是如何追蹤客戶滿意度的？具體來說，您是否採用了類似綜合客戶調查之類的工具，以便收集未經篩選的回饋，而不僅僅是專注於客戶留存率和在會議上獲得的回饋？

Yes. Great. Thank you very much. And you really touched on something that we -- I think we have a good system that we undertake a survey and an NPS scoring twice a year. In 2022, that is in the mid-40s, which is consistent with where we've been before the pandemic and through the pandemic. And I think we saw an increase in that during the pandemic as a function of kind of a general lift from working from home, from our clients, some of the features that we offered through client experience that were well received but still a very solid number.

是的，太好了，非常感謝。您確實提到了我們——我認為我們有一套不錯的系統，每年進行兩次調查和NPS評分。 2022年，我們的NPS評分在40%左右，這與疫情前和疫情期間的水平基本一致。我認為疫情期間，NPS評分有所上升，這主要是由於居家辦公的普及、客戶需求的增加，以及我們透過提升客戶體驗提供的一些功能廣受好評，但總體而言，我們的NPS評分仍然非常穩定。

So we undertake that, but we also have customer experience unit that is always looking to gauge the feedback that we receive from our clients on product experience. So at that level, we're trying to provide a number of means for them to communicate anonymously their level of satisfaction.

因此，我們進行這項工作，同時我們也設有客戶體驗部門，該部門始終致力於評估客戶對產品體驗的回饋。因此，我們嘗試提供多種方式，讓客戶匿名表達他們的滿意度。

I would also say anecdotally, we have intensified our efforts to engage at a senior level, particularly at C-suite with how we are providing value and solving problems for them. The feedback of knowing their feedback to our renewed focus on just the insurance industry has been very positive. The outreach from some clients where we haven't had a strong relationship has been very positive, and we've actually seen a higher level of engagement from them as a result.

我還想補充一點，根據一些具體情況來看，我們已加大力度與高層管理人員，特別是首席高管層進行溝通，讓他們了解我們如何為他們創造價值並解決問題。他們對我們重新專注於保險業的回饋非常積極。一些我們之前聯繫不夠緊密的客戶也主動聯繫我們，這非常令人欣喜，而且實際上，他們的參與度也因此顯著提高。

So we're looking at that across -- at different layers. And so far, I think the response has been positive, and we'll continue to build on that.

所以我們正在從各個層面進行研究。到目前為止，我認為反應是正面的，我們會繼續在此基礎上努力。

Our next question comes from Andrew Jeffrey with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Andrew Jeffrey。

I appreciate all the sort of succinct summation of the changes you made in your business and the guidance, I agree, that's really helpful. We also appreciate all the call outs of the business drivers.

我非常感謝您對公司變革的精闢總結和指導，我同意，這真的很有幫助。我們也感謝您對業務驅動因素的重點闡述。

Now that you're a pure-play, can you -- are there some areas where you think Verisk has particular ability to focus and accelerate growth? I'm thinking about life or extreme event modeling as we think more about climate change. I just wonder if there's more of a laser focus on areas we think Verisk has the ability to really leverage assets and potentially accelerate top line.

既然你們現在是一家純粹的事件建模公司，你們認為Verisk在某些領域擁有特別的優勢，可以集中精力加速成長嗎？我想到的是生命事件或極端事件建模，因為我們越來越關注氣候變遷。我只是想知道，你們是否會更專注於那些Verisk能夠真正發揮自身優勢並有可能加速營收成長的領域。

Yes. Andrew, thank you very much for the question. And I will -- I'll do my best to address it here, but I think we're really excited about drilling into that at Investor Day. So forgive me for another advertisement for Investor Day, but I really think that it will be a great opportunity for you to hear not only what I have to say strategically, but also hear it directly from the business and the investments that we're making. So I'm going to try to limit it to 3.

是的，安德魯，非常感謝你的提問。我會盡力在這裡回答這個問題，但我認為我們非常期待在投資者日上深入探討這個問題。所以請容許我再次宣傳投資者日，但我真的認為這將是一個絕佳的機會，讓你們不僅能聽到我的策略見解，還能直接了解我們業務和投資方面的資訊。因此，我盡量將發言控制在3個以內。

The first is, as you referenced, in new areas for us like life insurance and in marketing that are current needs for those businesses that we have the opportunity to penetrate the existing insurance industry or segments of the insurance industry that we have not served before are already delivering significant growth that enhances our overall growth rate. So we will continue to look for those opportunities.

正如您所提到的，首先，在我們目前尚未涉足的新領域，例如人壽保險和行銷，這些領域能夠滿足現有企業的實際需求。我們有機會滲透到現有保險業或我們之前未曾服務過的保險業細分領域，這些領域已經帶來了顯著的成長，從而提升了我們的整體成長率。因此，我們將繼續尋找這些機會。

The second level is internationally, as we've described, also a penetration opportunity where our international businesses are growing faster. They represent an opportunity for us to deliver some of the data, the analytics and technology into those markets as well as developing new solutions.

第二層面是國際層面，正如我們之前所述，這也是一個滲透機會，因為我們的國際業務成長速度更快。這為我們提供了一個機會，可以將部分數據、分析和技術引入這些市場，並開發新的解決方案。

And so the success that we've had in U.K. we hope to follow up with success in Canada and in Continental Europe with some of our work there. And that's not just acquisition-driven. It's also integrating some of the features and products that we have in the U.S.

因此，我們希望將我們在英國的成功延續到加拿大和歐洲大陸，並在那裡取得同樣的成功。這不僅是透過收購來實現的，還包括整合我們在美國的某些功能和產品。

And the third element that I would just point to is I think that we have a broader opportunity based upon the conversations that we've -- that I've had with other CEOs and other C-suite clients around the opportunity to improve the efficiency of the broader insurance industry.

第三點我想指出的是，我認為根據我與其他執行長和其他高階主管客戶的對話，我們有機會提高整個保險業的效率，這為我們帶來了更廣泛的機會。

I think to my earlier point, I think we've been great on the products that are focused on specific underwriting or specific claims applications. But our ability to tie those solutions together, potentially find shared services or more automated solutions to address the hundreds of billions of dollars of expenditure by the industry is an area that has a very strong reception from the clients we've dealt with.

我認為，正如我之前所說，我們在專注於特定承保或特定理賠應用的產品方面做得非常出色。但我們能否將這些解決方案整合起來，找到共享服務或更自動化的解決方案來應對行業數千億美元的支出，這一領域受到了我們合作客戶的強烈歡迎。

One element that I'll tease that has gotten a lot of interest is our ability to digitize more of the forms elements and the standard policy language, which, as you can imagine, can sometimes expand exponentially with tweaks to that language. Being able to manage and track that on a digitized basis is part of the investment that we're making in our core lines reimagine.

我先透露一個備受關注的方面，那就是我們能夠將更多表格元素和標準保單條款數位化。如您所想，保單條款稍作調整，內容就會呈指數級增長。能夠以數位化方式管理和追蹤這些內容，是我們對核心險種進行重新構想的投資之一。

Those are the types of solutions where we can, given our centrality, given the data sets that we have, really revolutionize the way that, that process is being handled, creating efficiencies across the industry as a whole. So that hopefully gives you a little bit of a start in terms of where we think we can find new areas to potentially expand that growth rate.

憑藉我們的中心地位和擁有的資料集，我們可以找到這類解決方案，真正革新流程的處理方式，從而提高整個產業的效率。希望這能讓您初步了解我們認為可以拓展成長的新領域。

Our next question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

I wanted to focus on your auto underwriting and marketing that you talked about. Actually a 2-part question. Can you just remind us what your exposure is there? What it was as a percentage of revenues, pre-pandemic, what it is now? And what gives you the confidence that these companies can really reset premiums within the next 6 to 12 months?

我想重點談談您剛才提到的汽車保險承保和行銷。實際上，這個問題包含兩個部分。您能否簡要說明一下您在這方面的風險敞口？疫情前佔總收入的百分比是多少？現在又是多少？您又是如何確信這些公司能夠在未來6到12個月內真正重置保費的？

Yes. So one, I'm going to address the second part first. And then just also ask Elizabeth or Stacey to kind of refresh me on the overall exposure element. But I think we're confident because we are already seeing in a number of regulatory areas that those rate increases are being approved.

是的。首先，我先談談第二部分。然後，也請伊莉莎白或史泰西幫我回顧整體風險敞口的情況。但我認為我們很有信心，因為我們已經看到，在一些監管領域，這些費率上漲都獲得了批准。

There was a -- previously, a bit of a delay, I think, because of elections that probably created some delay from a regulatory standpoint. We're now seeing those begin to emerge, I think, a recognition that the inflationary costs that the auto insurers have borne is something that is legitimate, needs to be factored into overall pricing.

之前確實出現了一些延誤，我認為是因為選舉，這可能導致監管方面出現一些滯後。現在我們看到，人們開始意識到，汽車保險公司承擔的通膨成本是合理的，需要納入整體定價。

There are some areas that I think we're concerned about, particularly in California and approvals on that front. But I think we're getting a sense of momentum in those rate increases. And from an overall exposure standpoint...

我認為我們確實在一些領域感到擔憂，尤其是在加州，以及相關的審批流程。但我認為我們已經感受到利率上漲的勢頭。從整體風險敞口來看…

Yes, we've said that the auto -- exposure to the auto industry is about 10% of our total insurance revenue.

是的，我們說過，汽車保險－對汽車產業的風險敞口約占我們保險總收入的 10%。

And that's what it was? Or that's what it is now?

過去是這樣嗎？還是現在是這樣？

In general.

一般來說。

Yes. It has been at that level consistently. It hasn't changed materially.

是的，一直維持在這個水平，沒有發生實質的變化。

Our next question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬納夫·帕特奈克。

And first, thank you so much for the guidance details and providing that. I just had a question around the pricing environment. If you could just talk about what pricing -- how pricing fits, I guess, this year and then looking out into '23, if you should expect any incremental improvement versus that.

首先，非常感謝您提供的詳細指導。我有一個關於定價環境的問題。您能否談談今年的定價策略，以及展望2023年，您認為定價策略是否會有任何改善？

Yes. Thanks, Manav. So as you can appreciate, we have hundreds of products. And so each has a different pricing dynamic reflecting what we view as the demand elements for that, the value that we provide.

是的，謝謝，馬納夫。正如您所了解的，我們有數百種產品。因此，每種產品都有不同的定價策略，反映了我們對該產品需求因素以及我們提供的價值的判斷。

And first and foremost, our primary pricing philosophy is driven by the value of the product and what it's delivering. And so we are often trying to calibrate pricing to be a fraction of the value that the client received. And when we think about our growth from pricing, it is primarily a reflection of our ability to deliver value to clients.

首先，我們定價的核心理念是產品的價值及其帶來的效益。因此，我們通常會努力將價格調整到客戶實際獲得的價值的一小部分。而當我們思考如何透過定價來成長時，這主要反映了我們為客戶創造價值的能力。

Now we also recognize that there is an element in our pricing that is tied to net premium growth. We are -- that is a factor. It has been a decreasing factor over time as other products not tied to that have grown faster. But that is an element where we are expecting some lift, given generally stronger premium growth as we've seen in different part of the businesses.

現在我們也意識到，我們的定價中有一個因素與淨保費成長有關。這是一個影響因素。隨著其他不與此相關的產品成長更快，這個因素的影響程度也逐漸降低。但鑑於我們在其他業務領域看到的保費成長普遍強勁，我們預計這一因素會有所提升。

And then finally, I would say going into 2023, reflecting somewhat of the higher inflationary environment and the imposed costs on us from a compensation standpoint, we have included a somewhat, in certain instances, a higher inflationary component to reflect that reality as we think most of our clients have done in similar situations.

最後，我想說，進入 2023 年，考慮到更高的通膨環境以及從補償角度來看給我們帶來的成本，我們在某些​​情況下加入了更高的通膨成分，以反映這一現實，我們認為我們的大多數客戶在類似情況下也這樣做了。

So all of those factor into the guidance from a revenue standpoint as it relates to pricing. I would say, however, that while pricing and particularly the value-added element is the most important component, we do also expect contributions from new customers, from upsell with existing products, from growth from our new initiatives and our higher growth to contribute a like amount to our overall growth rate.

因此，所有這些因素都會影響與定價相關的收入預期。不過，我想說的是，雖然定價，尤其是增值要素，是最重要的組成部分，但我們也預期新客戶、現有產品的追加銷售、新舉措帶來的成長以及我們自身更高的成長，都將對我們的整體成長率做出同等貢獻。

Our next question comes from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

下一個問題來自安德魯·尼古拉斯和威廉·布萊爾。

I wanted to ask just in terms of kind of the top and bottom end of revenue guidance, is it fair to say that the recovery of some of the headwinds you've called out the past couple of quarters on auto underwriting, marketing solutions and the sort are the primary drivers to the top and bottom end? Or are there other kind of puts and takes to call out that underlie the '23 guidance range?

我想問一下，就營收預期範圍的上限和下限而言，您過去幾季提到的汽車承保、行銷解決方案等方面的不利因素的復甦，是否可以說是影響預期上限和下限的主要驅動因素？或者說，還有其他因素影響2023年的預期範圍？

Yes. Good question. Yes, as you flagged, kind of one of the swing factors between the top and bottom end would be the recovery of some of the more sensitive -- macro sensitive parts of our business like auto. In general, with the 80% subscription revenue, there's a lot of stability in the overall.

是的，問得好。正如您所指出的，業績高低波動的一個關鍵因素在於我們業務中一些對宏觀經濟較為敏感的部分（例如汽車業務）的復甦情況。總的來說，由於80%的收入來自訂閱，整體業績相當穩定。

One or two other environment-related factors that I would point out that could contribute to the difference in that, the top and bottom end of that range as you say, the amount of storm-related revenue is inherently unpredictable, obviously. We have included some assumptions for that in the budget but a sort of moderate assumption in there. And then there's one or two other sort of macro-related factors like the level of [cat log] activity and other things that could contribute to that range.

還有一兩個與環境相關的因素也可能導致這個範圍的差異，正如您所說，風暴相關的收入金額本身就難以預測。我們在預算中對此做出了一些假設，但只是相對保守的假設。此外，還有一些宏觀層面的因素，例如災害日誌的記錄水準以及其他一些因素，這些都可能影響最終的收入範圍。

Our next question comes from Alex Kramm with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Alex Kramm。

Quick cleanup question, and sorry if I missed it, I dropped earlier. But I don't think you guided on interest expense, and you gave us a couple of pieces here in terms of paying off some of the debt already in February. So can you just be a little bit more specific on what we should be expecting there? Because I think some people are struggling getting from your EBITDA guide to EPS.

還有一個問題想請教一下，如果我之前錯過了您的回复，請見諒。您似乎沒有給出利息支出的指導，只是提到二月會償還部分債務。所以，您能否更具體地說明一下我們對利息支出的預期？因為我覺得有些人不太明白您給予的 EBITDA 指導和 EPS 之間的對應關係。

Yes, it's a great question. We're not giving a specific number on interest guidance, but I can give you some dimensionality to it. I think if you look at our fourth quarter interest expense, that was obviously higher than it was kind of on a run rate basis for the full year. I think for 2023, we would assume that the interest expense is slightly less than it was in the fourth quarter annualized but higher than it was for kind of the full year of '22 or between those 2 factors.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我們目前不提供具體的利息支出預期數字，但我可以就此做一些分析。我認為，如果您看一下我們第四季的利息支出，您會發現它明顯高於全年的年化水準。 2023年，我們預期利息支出年化水準會略低於第四季度，但高於2022年全年的年化水平，或介於兩者之間。

Our final question comes from Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank.

最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Faiza Alwy。

And I just want to say congratulations on executing all the changes in 2022, and thank you from me also on providing guidance. Today, I wanted to just go back on margins and specifically about the 2024 goals. The range is still pretty wide, and wanted to get a sense of what are some of the factors that would take you to the low end of the range versus the high end of the range.

我只想祝賀你們在2022年成功實施了所有變革，也感謝你們提供的指導。今天，我想再談談利潤率，特別是2024年的目標。目標範圍仍然相當廣泛，我想了解哪些因素會導致目標值偏低，哪些因素會導致目標值偏高。

Yes. Thanks, Faiza, for the question. Really, we're here today to talk about the quarter and the 2023 view. So sort of longer-term discussions, we'll talk about at Investor Day.

是的。謝謝Faiza的提問。今天我們主要討論的是本季業績和2023年的展望。至於更長期的討論，我們會在投資者日上進行。

Yes. And Faiza, I would just say, look, we clearly have an objective of delivering on that, and we want to demonstrate our ability to improve that margin. Longer term, I think what we'll talk about are the trade-offs between investment and margin and the value that the investment can deliver in terms of growth and returns.

是的。 Faiza，我想說的是，我們顯然有實現這一目標的明確目標，並且我們希望證明我們有能力提高利潤率。從長遠來看，我認為我們將討論的是投資和利潤率之間的權衡，以及投資在成長和回報方面所能帶來的價值。

I think that's not a new dynamic. That's something that we have always worked to try to find a balance to demonstrate margin strength, but also not at the cost of delivering where we think value is created most significantly, which is through growth and returns. But we are fully committed to delivering on the guidance that we set initially of that 53% to 56% range, and we're working to deliver as strong a result as we possibly can.

我認為這並非什麼新鮮事。我們一直努力尋求平衡，既要展現利潤率優勢，又不能以犧牲我們認為最能創造價值的領域——成長和回報——為代價。但我們完全致力於實現最初設定的53%至56%的利潤率目標，並正在努力爭取盡可能優異的業績。

There are no further questions at this time, which concludes today's conference. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次會議到此結束，沒有其他問題了。感謝各位參加今天的報告。您可以斷開連線了。