Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Verisk's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Verisk's Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Stacey Brodbar. Ms. Brodbar, please go ahead.

    大家好,歡迎參加 Verisk 2025 年第三季收益業績電話會議。本次通話正在錄音。(操作員指示)接下來,我將把電話交給 Verisk 的投資人關係主管 Stacey Brodbar 女士,請她致開幕詞並作介紹。布羅德巴女士,請繼續。

  • Stacey Brodbar - Head of Investor Relations and FP&A

    Stacey Brodbar - Head of Investor Relations and FP&A

  • Thank you, operator, and good day, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for a discussion of our third quarter 2025 financial results. On the call today are Lee Shavel, Verisk's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Elizabeth Mann, Chief Financial Officer and Interim Head of Claims. The earnings release referenced on this call as well as our traditional quarterly earnings presentation and the associated 10-Q can be found in the Investors section of our website, www.verisk.com. The earnings release has also been attached to an 8-K that we have furnished to the SEC.

    謝謝接線員,祝大家今天愉快。感謝您今天蒞臨本次會議,與我們共同探討2025年第三季的財務表現。今天參加電話會議的有 Verisk 總裁兼執行長 Lee Shavel,以及財務長兼理賠臨時主管 Elizabeth Mann。本次電話會議中提到的獲利報告以及我們傳統的季度獲利簡報和相關的10-Q表格,都可以在我們網站www.verisk.com的投資人關係欄位中找到。該盈利報告也已附在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會(SEC)的8-K表格中。

  • A replay of this call will be available for 30 days on our website and by dial-in. As set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, I will remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements about Verisk's future performance, including those related to our financial guidance and our recently announced pending acquisition of AccuLynx. Actual performance could differ materially from what is suggested by our comments today.

    本次通話的錄音將在我們的網站上保留 30 天,也可透過電話撥入收聽。正如今天發布的收益報告中更詳細闡述的那樣,我要提醒大家,今天的電話會議可能包含有關 Verisk 未來業績的前瞻性陳述,包括與我們的財務指導和我們最近宣布的對 AccuLynx 的待收購相關的陳述。實際表現可能與我們今天所作的評論有重大差異。

  • Information about the factors that could affect future performance is contained in our recent SEC filings. A reconciliation of reported and historic non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call is provided in our 8-K and today's earnings presentation posted on the Investors section of our website, www.verisk.com.

    有關可能影響未來業績的因素的資訊已包含在我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。本次電話會議中討論的報告和歷史非GAAP財務指標的調節表已在我們的8-K文件和今天發佈在我們網站www.verisk.com投資者關係部分的收益演示文稿中提供。

  • However, we are not able to provide a reconciliation of projected adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin to the most directly comparable expected GAAP results because of the unreasonable effort and high unpredictability of estimating certain items that are excluded from projected non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin, including for example, tax consequences, acquisition-related costs, gains and losses from dispositions and other nonrecurring expenses, the effect of which may be significant. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Lee Shavel.

    然而,由於估算某些項目(例如,稅收影響、收購相關成本、處置損益和其他非經常性支出)的工作量過大且具有高度不確定性,我們無法將預計調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率與最直接可比的預期 GAAP 結果進行核對,因為這些項目不包含在預計的非 GAAP 調整後利潤。現在我想把電話交給李沙維爾。

  • Lee Shavel - CEO

    Lee Shavel - CEO

  • Thanks, Stacey. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today for our third quarter earnings call. Today, I will provide broad context on the results and allow Elizabeth to go into more detail on the financial review. I will also offer some relevant perspective from recent C-suite meetings with our largest clients. Finally, with AI being a focus for investors in our sector, I will update you on the AI enhancements that we've delivered and are developing for our clients and what we believe AI represents for the industry and for us in the coming years based on extensive engagement with our clients on the topic and ground truth experience from our active AI-enhanced solutions.

    謝謝你,史黛西。各位早安,感謝各位今天參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。今天,我將提供結果的整體背景,並讓伊莉莎白更詳細地介紹財務審查。我也會分享一些近期與我們最大客戶的高階主管會議的相關見解。最後,鑑於人工智慧是我們行業投資者的焦點,我將向大家介紹我們已經交付和正在為客戶開發的人工智慧增強功能,以及基於我們與客戶就此主題的廣泛交流和我們積極的人工智慧增強解決方案的實際經驗,我們認為人工智慧在未來幾年對產業和我們自身意味著什麼。

  • Now let's turn to the third quarter results. Verisk delivered organic constant currency revenue growth of 5.5% driven by strong subscription revenue growth of 8.7%. This growth compounded on top of the solid growth delivered last year. In the quarter, we experienced an exceptionally low level of severe weather resulting in a decline in claims assignments across our Xactware system. This and other factors drove transactional revenue declines of 8.8% on an OCC basis.

    現在我們來看第三季業績。Verisk 的有機固定匯率收入成長了 5.5%,這主要得益於訂閱收入的強勁成長,成長 8.7%。這一增長是在去年穩健成長的基礎上實現的。本季度,我們遭遇的極端天氣事件數量異常少,導致我們 Xactware 系統中的理賠申請數量下降。上述因素及其他因素導致 OCC 交易收入下降 8.8%。

  • Despite the transactional revenue impact, we delivered 8.8% OCC adjusted EBITDA growth with expanded EBITDA margin of 55.8%. Looking at our year-to-date performance, we delivered 7.1% OCC revenue growth, 9.4% OCC adjusted EBITDA growth and a 56.3% margin, which reflects the underlying strength and resilience of our business and is fully consistent with our organic guidance for the year.

    儘管交易收入受到影響,但我們實現了經調整後的 EBITDA 成長 8.8%,EBITDA 利潤率擴大至 55.8%。從今年迄今為止的業績來看,我們實現了 OCC 收入增長 7.1%,OCC 調整後 EBITDA 增長 9.4%,利潤率為 56.3%,這反映了我們業務的潛在實力和韌性,並且完全符合我們對今年的有機增長預期。

  • Our strong subscription growth reflects continued strategic engagement with our clients and a much-improved dialogue on the value that we are delivering and how we can tailor our solutions to their individual needs. As an example, last month, I attended with several of my direct reports, the CIAB Insurance Leadership Forum in Colorado and hosted 40 strategic client meetings. What we heard consistently from our clients was, one, that they need more data from us to better integrate across their businesses and functions, and they've demonstrated in new solutions like excess and surplus that they're willing to increase their data contributions.

    訂閱用戶數量的強勁成長反映了我們與客戶持續的策略合作,以及我們與客戶之間就我們提供的價值以及如何根據他們的個人化需求客製化解決方案而進行的更深入的溝通。例如,上個月,我與幾位直接下屬一起參加了在科羅拉多州舉行的 CIAB 保險領導力論壇,並主持了 40 場策略客戶會議。我們從客戶那裡不斷聽到的是,第一,他們需要我們提供更多的數據,以便更好地整合他們的業務和職能;他們也透過諸如超額和剩餘產品之類的新解決方案表明,他們願意增加數據貢獻。

  • Two, a high interest in the AI enhancements that we've developed using our data sets where they can get immediate benefit without heavy investment. And three, strong support for the efficiency driving multi-partner integrations that we provide in our property estimating solutions and specialty business and that we are developing an Anti-Fraud and extreme event solutions. It is for this reason that we remain committed to investing in integrations to deliver value to clients.

    第二,人們對我們利用自身資料集開發的 AI 增強功能非常感興趣,因為他們無需大量投資即可立即受益。第三,我們大力支持我們在房地產估價解決方案和專業業務中提供的高效驅動的多合作夥伴集成,並且我們正在開發反欺詐和極端事件解決方案。正因如此,我們始終致力於投資集成,為客戶創造價值。

  • I'd also highlight three meetings just in the past month with clients where we have not had previous C-suite engagement. These discussions included comprehensive reviews of where we support these clients across underwriting, risk and claims but most importantly, our discussion centered around future planning on how we can integrate and augment that support to align with our operating, data, AI and financial objectives, elevating and adapting to how our clients are evolving in this ever-changing environment.

    我還想重點介紹上個月與客戶的三次會面,我們之前從未與這些客戶的高階主管接觸。這些討論包括對我們在核保、風險和理賠方面如何支持這些客戶進行全面審查,但最重要的是,我們的討論圍繞著未來的規劃展開,探討如何整合和加強這些支持,以符合我們的營運、數據、人工智慧和財務目標,提升並適應客戶在這個不斷變化的環境中的發展。

  • In every meeting, the conclusion is that there is more opportunity for us to work together. Concretely, our elevated strategic engagement is leading to more pipeline opportunities. And in fact, 2025 is on track to be our strongest sales year yet with sales teams across Verisk exceeding an ambitious quota for the second straight year. Digging into our AI strategy further and given the heightened focus on the topic from investors and analysts, I believe it's important to share a few perspectives on what we are doing and what we've been experiencing.

    每次會議的結論都是,我們有更多合作的機會。具體而言,我們提升的策略參與度正在帶來更多的專案機會。事實上,2025 年有望成為我們迄今為止銷售業績最好的一年,Verisk 各個銷售團隊連續第二年超額完成了雄心勃勃的銷售目標。鑑於投資者和分析師對人工智慧策略的高度關注,以及我們對該主題的進一步深入探討,我認為有必要分享一些關於我們正在做的事情和我們所經歷的事情的看法。

  • First, AI is top of mind for our clients as well. They've been exploring the technology and its potential and have turned to Verisk as an active partner in helping them evaluate use cases and to support their operational objectives with our data sets and content.

    首先,人工智慧也是我們客戶最關注的問題之一。他們一直在探索這項技術及其潛力,並將 Verisk 視為積極的合作夥伴,幫助他們評估用例,並利用我們的資料集和內容來支持他們的營運目標。

  • Through our strategic engagement, our Chief Information Officer and Chief Global Data Officer, have participated in meetings to help our clients on key issues, including data architecture, vendor management and governance. Additionally, many of our clients want to understand Verisk's AI investment and deployment strategy so that they can align and prioritize their own investment. This underscores the connection we have to the industry and its support for the fundamental and central utility function we provide by developing and deploying a technology that the industry can benefit from at a much lower cost of ownership and investment. Second, and proceeding from the first, our deployed AI applications have been enthusiastically embraced by our clients.

    透過我們的策略合作,我們的資訊長和首席全球資料長參與了會議,以幫助我們的客戶解決關鍵問題,包括資料架構、供應商管理和治理。此外,我們的許多客戶都希望了解 Verisk 的 AI 投資和部署策略,以便調整和優先考慮自己的投資。這凸顯了我們與產業的聯繫,以及業界對我們透過開發和部署一項技術所提供的基本和核心公用事業功能的支持,該技術能夠以更低的擁有成本和投資成本使產業受益。其次,承接第一點,我們部署的 AI 應用受到了客戶的熱烈歡迎。

  • As an example, in XactXpert where we utilize AI to advise claims professionals in estimate review. We now have over 40 clients using the solution, including six of the top 10 carriers and year-to-date, sales performance is now more than double original quotas. And XactXpert can now be further enhanced by XactAI, adding Gen AI capabilities like photo tagging through a new solution, which launched just this month and already has 273 users, including a top 10 carrier.

    例如,在 XactXpert 中,我們利用人工智慧為理賠專業人員提供估價審核的建議。目前已有超過 40 家客戶使用該解決方案,其中包括排名前 10 的營運商中的 6 家,今年迄今的銷售業績已超過原定配額的兩倍。XactXpert 現在可以透過 XactAI 進一步增強,透過本月推出的新解決方案添加 Gen AI 功能,例如照片標記,該解決方案已經擁有 273 個用戶,其中包括排名前 10 的營運商。

  • On the development front, we've had very positive reactions to our AI query tools for claims search and SavvyR regulators, with about half of our 30 SavvyR states signed on, allowing our clients to more easily interrogate our data through natural language interfaces. Third, it's all about the data. AI relies on high-quality and usable data to train the models, and I can say with confidence that Verisk's content, which includes data, language, analytics and models is built upon proprietary data that is not publicly available and is structured, cleansed, vetted and designed by us to take advantage of the power of AI.

    在開發方面,我們的 AI 查詢工具(用於索賠搜尋和 SavvyR 監管機構)得到了非常積極的回饋,我們 30 個 SavvyR 州中約有一半已經簽約,這使得我們的客戶可以透過自然語言介面更輕鬆地查詢我們的資料。第三,一切都與數據有關。人工智慧依靠高品質和可用的數據來訓練模型,我可以自信地說,Verisk 的內容(包括數據、語言、分析和模型)是基於專有數據構建的,這些數據不公開可用,並且由我們進行結構化、清理、審查和設計,以充分利用人工智能的力量。

  • Additionally, our clients continue to reinforce the value of our content and the importance of integrating it into their workflows. Our investments in Core Lines Reimagine and the success we've had as demonstrated by our subscription growth is the clearest evidence that our curated data sets remain the fuel that powers insurance analytics. While it is still early, we are experiencing increased usage of our content as the introduction of AI tools in certain of our solutions is making it easier for our clients to interact with driving value for our clients. Further, we continue to grow the number of contributors to our existing data sets, onboarding 10 new statistical data contributors so far in 2025.

    此外,我們的客戶不斷強調我們內容的價值以及將其整合到他們工作流程中的重要性。我們對 Core Lines Reimagine 的投資以及我們透過訂閱成長所取得的成功,最清楚地證明我們精心策劃的數據集仍然是推動保險分析的動力。雖然現在還處於早期階段,但隨著人工智慧工具在我們某些解決方案中的引入,我們的客戶更容易與我們的內容互動,從而為客戶創造價值,我們發現我們的內容使用量正在增加。此外,我們不斷增加現有資料集的貢獻者數量,截至 2025 年,已有 10 位新的統計資料貢獻者加入。

  • And Verisk's clients are also actively supporting our new initiatives to build greenfield contributory data sets across Anti-Fraud and for the excess and surplus lines. Specifically, our new digital media forensics currently has 106 contributors, including 5 of the top 10 carriers, representing over 600 million digital images. With E&S, insurers are responding positively to our initiative to collect data for this growing market. We began this initiative less than a year ago and have already received commitments and actual data from several companies representing billions of dollars of premium. Our ability to provide analytics on their data and benchmark this data to the admitted market, leveraging our statistical data is also driving additional interest in contribution.

    Verisk 的客戶也積極支持我們的新舉措,即在反詐欺、超額和剩餘保險領域建立全新的貢獻資料集。具體來說,我們新的數位媒體取證目前有 106 個貢獻者,其中包括排名前 10 的營運商中的 5 個,代表著超過 6 億張數位影像。對於 E&S,保險公司對我們收集數據以滿足這一不斷增長的市場需求的舉措做出了積極回應。這項計畫啟動不到一年,我們就已經收到了幾家公司的承諾和實際數據,這些公司提供的保費總額達數十億美元。我們能夠利用統計數據對他們的數據進行分析,並將這些數據與公認的市場進行基準比較,這也激發了人們對貢獻的更多興趣。

  • Fourth, it's not just about AI. While AI is a powerful tool making the insurance industry better, requires human expertise and collaboration. We are connecting ecosystems across the industry that bring material efficiencies and improved data sets to drive better results. Our white space and Xactware platforms are compelling models of the value we can deliver to clients across the industry. Fifth, AI is enhancing our own internal processes and product development as we leverage advanced technologies to better ingest and interrogate data to advance our models and analytics.

    第四,這不僅是人工智慧的問題。雖然人工智慧是改善保險業的強大工具,但它仍然需要人類的專業知識和協作。我們正在連接整個產業的生態系統,從而提高材料效率並改進數據集,以推動更好的成果。我們的空白市場和 Xactware 平台是我們能夠為整個產業的客戶創造價值的有力證明。第五,人工智慧正在增強我們自身的內部流程和產品開發,因為我們利用先進技術來更好地攝取和查詢數據,以改進我們的模型和分析。

  • In our Xtreme Events business, we are using the power of AI to simulate globally correlated atmospheric perils with a level of realism and reliability that traditional approaches cannot achieve. Specifically, we are using deep learning AI models to correct biases in raw output of a climate model, ensuring that the frequency and intensity of extreme events align with observed reality. In addition, we're also using generative AI techniques to introduce details that capture the local impact of these large events. In short, our clients are more interested in working with us on AI because of our experience and the economic utility of using our solutions. Our proprietary data is more valuable with increasing AI utilization because of its breadth and usability.

    在我們的極限事件業務中,我們正在利用人工智慧的力量來模擬全球相關的大氣災害,其真實性和可靠性是傳統方法無法達到的。具體來說,我們正在使用深度學習人工智慧模型來糾正氣候模型原始輸出中的偏差,以確保極端事件的頻率和強度與觀察到的現實相符。此外,我們也利用生成式人工智慧技術來引入細節,以捕捉這些大型事件對當地的影響。簡而言之,我們的客戶更有興趣與我們在人工智慧領域合作,因為我們擁有豐富的經驗,而且我們的解決方案具有經濟效益。由於其覆蓋率廣、用途廣,隨著人工智慧應用的日益廣泛,我們的專有數據也變得更有價值。

  • Our clients are contributing more data and actively supporting the development of new contributory data sets demonstrating their commitment to Verisk's partnership. Our growth opportunities are expanding by the rapid adoption of solutions like XactXpert and the robust pipelines we have across many of our new inventions. We have been investing in these solutions and enhancements for several years while maintaining our strong margin profile. And finally, we believe our long-term growth and margin model is enhanced by the integration of AI into our own processes and across the industry overall.

    我們的客戶正在貢獻更多數據,並積極支持開發新的貢獻數據集,這表明他們對 Verisk 合作夥伴關係的承諾。透過快速採用 XactXpert 等解決方案以及我們在許多新發明方面擁有的強大產品線,我們的成長機會正在不斷擴大。多年來,我們一直在投資這些解決方案和改進措施,同時保持了強勁的利潤率。最後,我們相信,將人工智慧融入我們自身的流程以及整個產業,能夠增強我們的長期成長和利潤模式。

  • Beneath the near-term light weather impacts reflected in our current quarter's results is clear and unmistakable evidence that our strategic engagement initiatives, enhanced go-to-market strategy and product invention, including AI, are enhancing the value of our data and expanding our growth opportunities.

    儘管我們本季業績反映出近期天氣因素的影響較小,但有明確無誤的證據表明,我們的策略合作舉措、增強的市場推廣策略和產品創新(包括人工智慧)正在提升我們數據的價值,並擴大我們的成長機會。

  • Before I turn the call over to Elizabeth, let me share recent developments on the AccuLynx transaction. FTC approval of the transaction has been delayed. We have received a second request for information, and we continue to have productive engagement with the FTC, working within the conditions of the federal government shutdown. Consequently, we do not expect to realize any material benefit from the pending transaction in 2025 and have removed any operating results from our 2025 guidance. We are proactively engaged with the FTC and continue to believe in the strategic and financial merits of the transaction.

    在將電話交給伊莉莎白之前,讓我先分享一下 AccuLynx 交易的最新進展。美國聯邦貿易委員會對該交易的批准已被推遲。我們收到了第二份資訊請求,在聯邦政府停擺的情況下,我們繼續與聯邦貿易委員會進行富有成效的溝通。因此,我們預計在 2025 年不會從待決交易中獲得任何實質收益,並已從 2025 年業績指引中刪除了任何經營業績。我們積極與聯邦貿易委員會溝通,並繼續相信該交易的策略和財務價值。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Elizabeth for the financial review

    接下來,我將把財務審查工作交給伊莉莎白。

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • Thanks, Lee, and good morning to everyone on the call. On a consolidated and GAAP basis, third quarter revenue was $768 million, up 5.9% versus the prior year, reflecting growth across both underwriting and claims. Net income was $226 million, a 2.5% increase versus the prior year while diluted GAAP earnings per share were $1.61, up 5% versus the prior year. The increase in diluted GAAP EPS was driven by sales growth, operating leverage and a lower average share count.

    謝謝李,也祝福所有參加電話會議的朋友們早安。以合併及GAAP準則計算,第三季營收為7.68億美元,較上年同期成長5.9%,反映出核保及理賠業務均成長。淨利潤為 2.26 億美元,比上年增長 2.5%;稀釋後 GAAP 每股收益為 1.61 美元,比上年增長 5%。稀釋後 GAAP 每股盈餘的成長是由銷售成長、營運槓桿和平均流通股數量減少所推動的。

  • Moving to our organic constant currency results. Adjusted for nonoperating items, as defined in the non-GAAP financial measures section of our press release, our operating results demonstrated balanced growth across the business. In the third quarter, OCC revenues grew 5.5% with growth of 5.8% in underwriting and 5% in claims. We did experience two temporary factors that impacted growth in the quarter. Namely, first, a historically low level of weather activity and therefore, claims volumes that were significantly lower than our estimate of a typical year. And two, the reduction in a government contract, which we had spoken to you about previously.

    接下來是我們的有機成長績效(以固定匯率計算)。根據我們在新聞稿的非GAAP財務指標部分中定義的非經營性項目進行調整後,我們的經營業績顯示業務各方面均實現了均衡成長。第三季度,OCC 營收成長 5.5%,其中承保業務成長 5.8%,理賠業務成長 5%。本季我們確實遇到了兩個影響成長的暫時性因素。具體而言,首先,天氣活動處於歷史低位,因此,索賠量也遠低於我們對往年情況的估計。第二,政府合約的減少,我們之前已經和你們談過這個問題了。

  • Together, those factors combined for an impact of approximately 1% to overall Verisk OCC revenue growth in the quarter. We view these factors as temporary and continue to have confidence in our ability to deliver results in line with our long-term target for this year for 2026 and beyond. The clearest demonstration of the health of our business is the growth of our subscription revenues. Subscription revenues, which comprised 84% of our total revenue in the quarter, grew 8.7% on an OCC basis, compounding on the 9.1% OCC growth we delivered in the prior year quarter and consistent with growth levels in the first half of the year. This quarter's growth was broad-based across most of our subscription-based solutions, with outperformance across our largest businesses.

    這些因素加在一起,對 Verisk OCC 本季的整體營收成長產生了約 1% 的影響。我們認為這些因素是暫時的,並持續對我們實現2026年及以後長期目標的能力充滿信心。我們業務健康狀況最明顯的體現就是訂閱收入的成長。訂閱收入佔本季總營收的 84%,以 OCC 計算成長了 8.7%,在上一季 OCC 成長 9.1% 的基礎上進一步成長,與上半年的成長水準一致。本季度,我們的大部分訂閱式解決方案均實現了全面成長,其中規模最大的業務表現尤為突出。

  • Within form tools and loss costs, we continue to execute on our innovation agenda through the Reimagine program. which is driving solid price realization in the renewal process across all client tiers. In the third quarter, we launched three new modules as the latest demonstration of the increased value we're delivering to clients and the industry. For example, our new indication center delivers key rating elements to our clients two months sooner than our traditional loss cost review process. This allows insurers to begin responsive rate actions sooner and more confidently when incorporating Verisk data into their pricing and underwriting management.

    在形式工具和損失成本方面,我們繼續透過「重塑計畫」來執行我們的創新議程,該計畫正在推動所有客戶層級在續約過程中實現穩健的價格實現。第三季度,我們推出了三個新模組,這再次證明了我們為客戶和產業帶來的價值不斷提升。例如,我們的新指標中心比傳統的損失成本審查流程提前兩個月向客戶提供關鍵評級要素。這樣一來,保險公司在將 Verisk 數據納入定價和承保管理時,就能更快、更自信地採取相應的費率調整措施。

  • We remain on track to deliver all 20 planned Reimagine releases in 2025, reinforcing our commitment to innovation and execution discipline. We are also driving double-digit subscription growth in Extreme Event Solutions through the expansion of contracts with existing clients, solid renewals and the addition of new logos globally, including competitive wins. We are seeing strong appetite from clients to subscribe and expand their hosted relationship with Verisk in preparation for the transition to our fully SaaS-based Verisk Synergy Studio, creating a more durable and more deeply aligned client partnership. Within our Anti-Fraud business, we have continued to achieve strong price realization through enhancement of the solution and the continuation of our ecosystem strategy. In addition, we have driven outsized growth with noncarrier clients like third-party administrators and healthcare subrogation companies as we are focused on building and expanding solutions specifically geared for their use cases.

    我們仍按計劃在 2025 年交付全部 20 個 Reimagine 版本,這鞏固了我們對創新和執行紀律的承諾。我們透過擴大與現有客戶的合約、穩健的續約以及在全球新增客戶(包括贏得競爭性合約),推動極限活動解決方案的訂閱量實現兩位數成長。我們看到客戶對訂閱和擴展與 Verisk 的託管關係表現出強烈的興趣,為過渡到我們完全基於 SaaS 的 Verisk Synergy Studio 做準備,從而建立更持久、更深入的客戶合作關係。在我們的反詐騙業務中,我們透過改進解決方案和繼續推進生態系統策略,持續實現了強勁的價格成長。此外,我們專注於建立和擴展專門針對第三方管理機構和醫療保健代位求償公司等非營運商客戶的解決方案,從而實現了超額成長。

  • Additionally, we are seeing meaningful interest in our advanced anti-fraud inventions, including claims coverage identifier and digital media forensics and have a rich pipeline of future opportunities. And finally, we delivered double-digit subscription growth across our Specialty Business Solutions and Life Solutions businesses, where we are driving new sales and expanding relationships with existing clients. Our transactional revenues, which comprised 16% of total revenues, declined 8.8% on an OCC basis. The principal factor for the transactional revenue decline with lower transactional volumes in our Property Estimating Solutions business, resulting from historically low levels of weather activity. Weather events in the third quarter as tracked by Noah, declined 18% versus last year and were 31% below the five-year average.

    此外,我們看到市場對我們先進的反詐騙發明表現出濃厚的興趣,包括索賠範圍識別和數位媒體取證,並且我們擁有豐富的未來機會。最後,我們的專業業務解決方案和生活解決方案業務實現了兩位數的訂閱成長,我們正在推動新銷售並擴大與現有客戶的關係。我們的交易收入佔總收入的 16%,以 OCC 計算下降了 8.8%。由於天氣活動處於歷史低位,導致我們的房地產估價解決方案業務交易量下降,交易收入也隨之下降。根據諾亞追蹤的數據,第三季的天氣事件比去年同期下降了 18%,比五年平均值低了 31%。

  • According to Verisk's own PCS data, third quarter weather event frequency and severity declined 30% and 78%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. In fact, this third quarter marks the lowest level of storm events in the U.S. since 2017, and 2025 is on track to be the first year since 2015 without a named U.S. hurricane to make landfall so far. This has translated into lower level of transactional claims assignment and fewer subscription overages across our Property Estimating Solutions business.

    根據 Verisk 自己的 PCS 數據,第三季天氣事件的頻率和嚴重程度分別比去年同期下降了 30% 和 78%。事實上,今年第三季是美國自 2017 年以來風暴事件最少的一年,而 2025 年預計將成為自 2015 年以來第一個沒有命名颶風登陸美國的年份。這轉化為我們房地產估價解決方案業務中交易索賠分配水準的降低和訂閱超額費用的減少。

  • This quarter of lighter weather activity has validated our strategy to increase the level of subscription volume in our PES business as it has reduced the weather-related variability for both us and our clients. As discussed last quarter, we continue to see softness in our Personal Lines Auto business relating to competitive pressures. In addition, we are experiencing tougher comparisons on certain non-rate action deals as carriers have been more successful achieving greater rate adequacy. Finally, transactional revenue growth was negatively impacted by ongoing conversion to subscriptions across our business.

    本季天氣活動減少,驗證了我們提高 PES 業務訂閱量的策略是正確的,因為這減少了我們和客戶因天氣原因造成的波動。正如上個季度所討論的,由於競爭壓力,我們的個人汽車保險業務持續疲軟。此外,由於營運商在提高費率充足性方面取得了更大的成功,我們在某些​​非費率行動交易方面也面臨更嚴峻的比較。最後,由於公司業務持續向訂閱模式轉型,交易收入成長受到了負面影響。

  • As we look ahead to the fourth quarter, we remind you that we do have another very tough weather comparison as last year, we saw an uplift in revenue from Hurricane Helene and Milton. Moving to our adjusted EBITDA results, OCC adjusted EBITDA growth was 8.8% in the quarter, while total adjusted EBITDA margin, which include both organic and inorganic results, were 55.8%, up 60 basis points from the prior year. This level of margin expansion reflects our ongoing cost discipline, including the benefits of our Global Talent Optimization as well as the core leverage from sales growth. It also reflects continued investment in our business across many projects, including Core Lines Reimagine, Verisk Synergy Studio and in new and advanced technologies, including AI. Over the past five years, we have delivered over 500 basis points of margin expansion, while self-funding investments in some large-scale transformative technology and product upgrades, including our cloud migration, Core Lines Reimagine, the ERP implementation and artificial intelligence.

    展望第四季度,我們提醒您,今年的天氣狀況與去年同期相比非常嚴峻,因為去年颶風海倫和米爾頓帶來了收入成長。再來看我們調整後的 EBITDA 業績,OCC 的調整後 EBITDA 在本季度增長了 8.8%,而包括有機增長和非有機增長在內的總調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 55.8%,比上年同期增長了 60 個基點。這種利潤率擴張反映了我們持續的成本控制,包括全球人才優化帶來的益處以及銷售成長的核心槓桿作用。這也反映了我們對業務的持續投資,涵蓋眾多項目,包括核心線路重塑、Verisk Synergy Studio 以及人工智慧等新興先進技術。過去五年,我們實現了超過 500 個基點的利潤率成長,同時自籌資金進行了一些大規模的變革性技術和產品升級,包括我們的雲端遷移、核心產品線重塑、ERP 實施和人工智慧。

  • Specific to AI, we continue to develop inventions across our business units that include AI and as we mentioned, we have many solutions commercially available today. And we have confidence that like our other tech transformation, we will be able to self-fund this investment while also continuing to deliver margin expansion in line with our target. Moving down the income statement. Net interest expense was $42 million in the third quarter compared to $32 million in the same period last year, due to higher debt balances and higher interest rates, offset in part by higher interest income on elevated cash balances. During the third quarter, we acted opportunistically to take advantage of favorable bond market pricing and issued $1.5 billion in senior notes to finance the announced acquisition of AccuLynx.

    具體到人工智慧領域,我們不斷在各個業務部門開發包含人工智慧在內的創新技術,正如我們所提到的,我們目前已有許多商業解決方案可供使用。我們有信心,就像我們其他的技術轉型一樣,我們將能夠自籌資金進行這項投資,同時繼續實現利潤率成長,達到我們的目標。從損益表向下看。第三季淨利息支出為 4,200 萬美元,而去年同期為 3,200 萬美元,原因是債務餘額增加和利率上升,但部分被現金餘額增加帶來的利息收入所抵銷。第三季度,我們抓住債券市場定價有利的良機,發行了 15 億美元的高級票據,為宣布收購 AccuLynx 提供資金。

  • We are earning yields on those cash proceeds, which significantly reduced the net interest expense. Our reported effective tax rate was 25.3% compared to 22.9% in the prior year quarter. The year-over-year increase was driven by a lower level of employee stock option exercise activity in the current year and a onetime tax benefit in the prior year period. We continue to believe that our tax rate will fall in the 23% to 25% range for the full year. Adjusted net income increased 1% to $241 million, and diluted adjusted EPS increased 3% to $1.72 for the quarter.

    我們從這些現金收益中獲得收益,這大大降低了淨利息支出。我們報告的實際稅率為 25.3%,而去年同期為 22.9%。年比成長的原因是本年度員工股票選擇權行使活動減少以及上年度的一次性稅收優惠。我們仍然認為,全年稅率將維持在 23% 至 25% 的範圍內。本季經調整淨利成長 1% 至 2.41 億美元,稀釋後經調整每股收益成長 3% 至 1.72 美元。

  • The increase was driven by revenue growth, margin expansion and a lower average share count. This was partially offset by higher depreciation and interest expenses and a higher tax rate. On a reported basis, net cash from operating activities increased 36% to $404 million, while free cash flow rose 40% to $336 million. This increase was driven primarily by an improvement in the timing of collections as well as lower cash taxes paid due to changes in the tax code associated with the treatment of research and development costs. We remain committed to returning capital to shareholders.

    成長主要由營收成長、利潤率擴大和平均流通股數量減少所推動。但這部分被更高的折舊和利息支出以及更高的稅率所抵消。按報告數據,經營活動產生的淨現金成長 36% 至 4.04 億美元,而自由現金流成長 40% 至 3.36 億美元。這一增長主要得益於收款時間的改善,以及由於與研發成本處理相關的稅法變化而導致的現金稅款減少。我們始終致力於向股東返還資本。

  • During the third quarter, we paid a cash dividend of $0.45 per share, a 15% increase from the prior year. Additionally, we repurchased $100 million of common stock. As of September 30, we had $1.2 billion in capacity under our share repurchase authorization.

    第三季度,我們派發了每股 0.45 美元的現金股息,比去年同期成長了 15%。此外,我們也回購了價值 1 億美元的普通股。截至9月30日,我們的股票回購授權額度為12億美元。

  • Turning to guidance. Though it is not our typical practice to update guidance following three quarters, we want to provide more transparency given the recent delay in approval for the AccuLynx transaction.

    尋求指導。雖然我們通常不會在三個季度後更新業績指引,但鑑於最近 AccuLynx 交易的批准延遲,我們希望提高透明度。

  • We do not expect to realize any material financial benefit from the pending transaction in 2025 and have therefore removed any operating results from our 2025 guidance. More specifically, we expect consolidated revenue to be in the range of $3.05 billion to $3.08 billion. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $1.69 billion to $1.72 billion and adjusted EBITDA margins to remain in the 55% to 55.8% range. We now expect net interest expense to be in the range of $165 million to $185 million, reflecting the impact of cash earned on the proceeds from the bond transaction. From a tax perspective, we are still expecting to be in the range of 23% to 25%.

    我們預計在 2025 年不會從待決交易中獲得任何實質性的財務收益,因此已從 2025 年的業績指引中刪除了任何經營業績。更具體地說,我們預計合併收入將在 30.5 億美元至 30.8 億美元之間。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 16.9 億美元至 17.2 億美元之間,調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將維持在 55% 至 55.8% 的範圍內。我們現在預計淨利息支出將在 1.65 億美元至 1.85 億美元之間,這反映了現金收入對債券交易收益的影響。從稅收角度來看,我們仍然預計稅率將在 23% 到 25% 之間。

  • Taken all together, we continue to expect diluted adjusted earnings per share in the range of $6.80 to $7. A complete listing of all guidance measures can be found in the earnings slide deck, which has been posted to the Investors section of our website, www.verisk.com. And now I will turn the call back over to Lee for some closing comments.

    綜合來看,我們仍然預計稀釋後調整後每股收益在 6.80 美元至 7 美元之間。所有指導措施的完整清單可在收益報告幻燈片中找到,該幻燈片已發佈在我們網站 www.verisk.com 的投資者關係版塊。現在我將把電話交還給 Lee,請他做總結發言。

  • Lee Shavel - CEO

    Lee Shavel - CEO

  • Thanks, Elizabeth. We are excited about the growth opportunities ahead and have confidence in delivering on our long-term strategy and driving value creation for shareholders. We continue to appreciate all the support and interest in Verisk. Given the large number of analysts we have covering us, we ask that you limit yourself to one question. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

    謝謝你,伊麗莎白。我們對未來的成長機會感到興奮,並有信心實現我們的長期策略,為股東創造價值。我們衷心感謝大家對 Verisk 的支持與關注。鑑於有大量分析師關注我們,我們要求您只提一個問題。這樣,我就可以請接線生開通提問專線了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik of Barclays.

    (操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬納夫·帕特奈克。

  • Manav Patnaik - Analyst

    Manav Patnaik - Analyst

  • I just had a question on the deal and you obviously included in the guidance last quarter, you raised the debt, so you're pretty confident in the closure. So I was just curious what -- if you can give us some more color on perhaps what's in question here and somewhat tied to Titan, I know obviously, you have that strategic agreement with Service Titan as well, which I think you said was the main competitive AccuLynx. So how does all that play into this, if you could help us with that?

    我剛才有個關於這筆交易的問題,顯然你在上個季度的業績指引中提到了這一點,你增加了債務,所以你對交易完成很有信心。所以我很好奇——您能否為我們詳細介紹這裡存在的問題,以及與 Titan 有關的事情,我知道您顯然與 Service Titan 也有戰略協議,我想您說過 Service Titan 是 AccuLynx 的主要競爭對手。那麼,這一切與此有何關聯呢?如果您能幫我們解答一下就太好了。

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • Yes, Manav, thanks for the question. Look, the FTC is reviewing the deal, and we continue to work collaboratively and expeditiously with them through the government shutdown. So we're making progress towards approval of the deal. On Service Titan, we did -- we announced a partnership with them through our Property Estimating Solutions business. And so they integrate through the Xactware platform. I'm not sure we would say they are the main competitor of AccuLynx. The -- they are one because of their recent IPO that people have asked questions about.

    是的,馬納夫,謝謝你的提問。你看,聯邦貿易委員會正在審查這項交易,在政府停擺期間,我們將繼續與他們密切合作,迅速推進。因此,我們在推動交易獲得批准方面取得了進展。關於 Service Titan,我們確實做到了——我們透過我們的房地產估價解決方案業務宣布與他們建立合作夥伴關係。因此,它們透過 Xactware 平台進行整合。我不確定我們是否可以說他們是 AccuLynx 的主要競爭對手。——他們之所以成為一體,是因為他們最近的IPO引發了人們的疑問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Toni Kaplan of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

    你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。您的線路已開通。

  • Toni Kaplan - Analyst

    Toni Kaplan - Analyst

  • I was hoping you could talk about what you're seeing in the competitive landscape regarding AI startups. You have a very strong moat with your proprietary data. But I imagine there are some parts of the workflow that AI startups are trying to infringe upon. And so just wanted to hear anything you're seeing in the market with regard to that.

    我希望您能談談您目前觀察到的人工智慧新創公司競爭格局。你們擁有非常強大的競爭優勢,因為你們掌握了專有數據。但我認為,人工智慧新創公司正試圖侵入工作流程的某些環節。所以,我想聽聽你在這方面市場上有什麼看法。

  • Lee Shavel - CEO

    Lee Shavel - CEO

  • Sure. Thanks, Toni. I appreciate the question. And we've obviously described in the opening comments on what we've been doing with AI. And so certainly relevant to that is what we are seeing and what our clients are seeing.

    當然。謝謝你,托尼。感謝您的提問。我們在開場白中已經詳細介紹了我們一直在進行的人工智慧相關工作。因此,我們所看到的以及我們的客戶所看到的,肯定與此密切相關。

  • And I think as you suggest, there are a lot of kind of general AI companies that are looking to apply their large language models to kind of broad data sets or individual client data sets. Others that are coming up with kind of bespoke solutions for specific functions. But I think as you allude to, without access to kind of the proprietary content in terms of data sets that we have, expertise, specific knowledge of the insurance industry challenges that they face, it's difficult to achieve scale in delivering value for clients. That's why we feel we're in a very strong position to be a partner to our clients, given the expertise, given the data set. We've seen receptivity.

    我認為正如你所建議的那樣,有許多通用人工智慧公司正在尋求將其大型語言模型應用於廣泛的資料集或單一客戶的資料集。還有一些人正在為特定功能提出客製化的解決方案。但我認為,正如你所暗示的那樣,如果沒有我們擁有的專有數據集、專業知識以及對保險業面臨的挑戰的具體了解,就很難在為客戶創造價值方面實現規模化。正因如此,憑藉著我們的專業知識和資料集,我們才覺得自己有能力成為客戶的合作夥伴。我們已經看到了接受度。

  • And there also is a higher degree of confidence that we're able to deliver and be a reliable partner with them on their AI efforts. But it is something that we continue to monitor to determine if it is a solution that a client sees value in. And it's -- we can be supportive in providing data that becomes an opportunity for us. And it's also very consistent with the connected ecosystem that we have developed in our Property Estimating Solutions area and are developing in other dimensions of our business. So if it is something that is relevant and our data sets are valuable and it delivers value to the clients, that becomes an opportunity for us to participate in.

    而且,我們也更有信心能夠交付成果,成為他們在人工智慧領域值得信賴的合作夥伴。但我們會持續關注,以確定客戶是否認為這是一個有價值的解決方案。而且—我們可以提供支持,提供數據,這將成為我們的機會。而且,它與我們在房地產估價解決方案領域建立的互聯生態系統,以及我們在業務其他方面正在開發的生態系統也非常一致。因此,如果某件事與我們相關,我們的資料集有價值,並且能為客戶帶來價值,那麼這就是我們參與的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Faiza Alwy of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

    你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Faiza Alwy。您的線路已開通。

  • Faiza Alwy - Analyst

    Faiza Alwy - Analyst

  • Lee, thank you for the comments you made upfront around the continuing strategic dialogue with your customers. You mentioned a few things like increasing usage and more contributory data. I'm wondering if you can share your thoughts around future pricing opportunity, especially in light of decelerating net written premiums in the insurance industry that we're hearing. And I understand that there isn't a formula, but just curious how you're thinking about that future pricing opportunity given the various dynamics?

    李,感謝您先前就與客戶持續進行策略對話所提出的意見。您提到了一些方面,例如提高使用率和增加貢獻數據。我想請您分享您對未來定價機會的看法,尤其是在我們聽到保險業淨保費收入增速放緩的情況下。我知道沒有固定的公式,但我很好奇,考慮到各種因素,您是如何看待未來的定價機會的?

  • Lee Shavel - CEO

    Lee Shavel - CEO

  • Yes. Thank you very much for the question, Faiza. We think it is a very real opportunity. First and foremost, because I think both we and our clients recognize that we can provide incremental value to them in a variety of ways. And in those strategic dialogues, the elements that we discussed and kind of relate to the revenue opportunity is for instance, most directly as we've experienced with Xact Expert, as we're experiencing with Xact AI and developing in other areas, we have been able to deploy an AI enhancement to their productivity that adds value, and we have been able to realize upsell revenue from that enhancement. So that is a very clear direct and immediate opportunity that we're executing on.

    是的。非常感謝你的提問,法伊札。我們認為這是一個非常現實的機會。首先,我認為我們和我們的客戶都認識到,我們可以透過多種方式為他們提供增值服務。在這些策略對話中,我們討論的要素與收入機會密切相關,例如,正如我們在 Xact Expert 上所經歷的,正如我們在 Xact AI 上所經歷的,以及在其他領域所開發的那樣,我們已經能夠部署人工智能增強功能來提高他們的生產力,從而增加價值,並且我們已經能夠從這種增強功能中獲得追加銷售收入。所以,這是一個非常明確、直接且迫在眉睫的機會,我們正在積極地把握。

  • Secondly, the ability to integrate our data sets, either directly into their AI strategies or integrating our own data sets to meet some of their functional objectives is incremental value for them. And so that becomes an element of an opportunity for us as we are looking at our subscription contracts where we have the ability to factor that in, recognizing that we're creating value. And so there's an opportunity to participate in that. I would draw a connection to the very strong subscription growth that you were seeing across our business is a function in large part of the modernization of our data sets through our Core Lines Reimagine function that has expanded our clients' ability to utilize our data sets and integrate them into their workflows.

    其次,能夠將我們的資料集整合到他們的 AI 策略中,或整合我們自己的資料集來滿足他們的一些功能目標,對他們來說具有增量價值。因此,當我們審視訂閱合約時,這也成為我們的機會之一,我們可以將這一點考慮在內,因為我們意識到我們正在創造價值。所以,這是一個參與其中的機會。我認為,您在我們業務中看到的強勁訂閱成長,很大程度上歸功於我們透過核心業務重塑功能對資料集進行的現代化改造,這擴展了我們的客戶利用我們資料集並將其整合到其工作流程中的能力。

  • So it's a natural expansion on that front. So -- and then finally, as I alluded to in the call, we're using AI to improve the quality of our underlying products, and I specifically noted our use of it in the CAT modeling area. And so we're strengthening that product. And if it is a stronger product competitively delivering more value to our clients, that naturally becomes a pricing opportunity. And we've seen very strong subscription growth from our CAT modeling area as well, I think, reflective of that continued investment and innovation within that product set.

    所以這是這方面的自然延伸。最後,正如我在電話會議中提到的,我們正在使用人工智慧來提高我們底層產品的質量,我特別提到了我們在 CAT 建模領域對它的使用。因此,我們正在加強該產品的研發。如果這是一款更具競爭力的產品,能夠為我們的客戶帶來更多價值,那麼這自然就構成了一個定價機會。我們也看到 CAT 建模領域的訂閱量也出現了非常強勁的成長,我認為這反映了我們在這個產品系列中持續的投資和創新。

  • Faiza Alwy - Analyst

    Faiza Alwy - Analyst

  • Great, thank you.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman of JPMorgan. Your line is open.

    你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的安德魯·斯坦納曼。您的線路已開通。

  • Andrew Steinerman - Analyst

    Andrew Steinerman - Analyst

  • Elizabeth, I heard your list of kind of dynamics around the auto underwriting solutions revenues and that the main product there is Lightspeed. The things I didn't hear you say on that list was when looking at that end market, auto underwriting growth of their policies has been decelerating. That's kind of been well documented during earnings season. And I thought that might be a headwind as well, as well as just the level of shopping around auto. And if you could just highlight for us what you guys currently see as the uniqueness of Lightspeed with insurers now?

    伊莉莎白,我聽了你關於汽車核保解決方案收入的各種動態分析,其中主要產品是 Lightspeed。在那份清單上,我沒有聽到你提到的是,從終端市場來看,他們的汽車保險承保成長速度一直在放緩。這一點在財報季已經得到了充分的證實。我覺得這可能也是個不利因素,還有汽車市場競爭的激烈程度。您能否為我們重點介紹一下,在你們看來,Lightspeed 目前在保險公司中的獨特優勢是什麼?

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks for the question, Andrew. Yes, that business itself doesn't have any particular linkage to premiums. So that wouldn't impact the performance of that business. Shopping activity has been in line more or less.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,安德魯。是的,這項業務本身與保費沒有任何直接聯繫。所以這不會影響該企業的表現。購物活動基本上符合預期。

  • So that hasn't been a major driver of change for that. On Lightspeed, I think we've talked before about the merits of that business. The ability for carriers to deliver a bindable quote in real time, and that value continues. So that strategic benefit is there.

    所以,這並非推動改變的主要因素。關於 Lightspeed,我想我們之前已經討論過這家公司的優點了。保險公司能夠即時提供可約束的報價,而且這種價值還在持續。所以,這種戰略優勢是存在的。

  • Lee Shavel - CEO

    Lee Shavel - CEO

  • And Andrew, one other factor is if you -- it sounds like you have it, you're observing on the dynamics in the auto insurance rate, rate adequacy has improved dramatically and as a consequence, some of the opportunities, kind of cyclical opportunities that we've seen previously in the non-rate action area has been less prominent than it was when profitability on the auto underwriting side was less robust.

    安德魯,還有一點,如果你——聽起來你已經注意到了——你在觀察汽車保險費率的動態,費率充足性已經大幅改善,因此,我們之前在非費率行動領域看到的一些機會,比如周期性機會,已經不如汽車承保方面盈利能力較弱時那麼突出了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of George Tong of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

    你的下一個問題來自高盛集團的喬治唐(George Tong)。您的線路已開通。

  • George Tong - Analyst

    George Tong - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks. Good morning. You mentioned your full year guide now excludes the impact of [AccuLynx]. Can you clarify how much of the guide reduction was due to the removal of the deal versus other factors like maybe extreme weather coming in lighter than expected?

    您好,謝謝。早安.您提到您目前的全年指南不包括以下因素的影響:[AccuLynx]能否說明一下,此次指導價下調有多少是由於取消交易造成的,又有多少是由於其他因素造成的,例如極端天氣導致降雨量低於預期?

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, George. As usual, for a full year guide, we don't break down the pieces of it. You can kind of map the sequential changes that we've done.

    是的。謝謝你,喬治。像往常一樣,對於全年的指南,我們不會將其分解成各個部分。你可以大致梳理一下我們已經完成的這些變化。

  • George Tong - Analyst

    George Tong - Analyst

  • I guess how much of the change is organic versus M&A related?

    我想了解一下,這些變化有多少是自然成長導致的,又有多少是併購帶來的?

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • Yes. that that's -- we've given you the aggregate level.

    是的,我們已經給出了總體水平。

  • George Tong - Analyst

    George Tong - Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. Thank.

    好的。知道了。感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Ashish Sabadra of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

    你的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Ashish Sabadra。您的線路已開通。

  • Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

    Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

  • In the prepared remarks, Elizabeth you've highlighted, the difficult comps from hurricanes as we get into the fourth quarter. We estimate that was almost 100 basis points of tailwind last year. So is it right to -- for us to assume that we see an incremental 100 basis points of headwind from 3Q going into 4Q or was some of it headwinds pulled into 3Q? So any color there. But also as we think about other offsets, are there -- Lee, you mentioned really good sales momentum this year and last year as we start to see some of those sales translate into revenue into fourth quarter? Or is this more going to contribute for '26 and beyond?

    伊莉莎白,你在準備好的發言稿中重點提到了進入第四季後,颶風帶來的挑戰。我們估計去年這帶來了近 100 個基點的順風。那麼,我們是否可以假設從第三季到第四季出現了 100 個基點的額外不利因素,或者說其中一些不利因素已經累積到第三季了?所以任何顏色都可以。但當我們考慮其他抵銷因素時,是否存在——李,你提到今年和去年的銷售勢頭非常好,我們開始看到其中一些銷售額在第四季度轉化為收入?或者,這會對 2026 年及以後的發展產生更大的影響?

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Ashish, for the question. Yes, you're right. In the fourth quarter, we will be comping that strong impact from hurricane Helene and Milton that was in the fourth quarter of last year. As we typically say, at the beginning of the year, we tend to forecast for an average year of weather.

    是的。謝謝Ashish的提問。是的,你說得對。第四季度,我們將彌補去年第四季颶風海倫和米爾頓帶來的嚴重影響。正如我們常說的,在年初,我們往往會預測今年的天氣狀況將與往年持平。

  • Last year had the significant hurricane impact, and this year is shaping up to be a light year on the weather side. So those factors are likely to persist into the fourth quarter. In general, but the -- on a full year basis, we are in line with the guidance and the long-term targets. And yes, as we talked about some of the sales opportunity, the momentum that we're having in the sales force and with the new product adoptions will be continuing into next year.

    去年颶風影響巨大,而今年天氣狀況似乎會比較平靜。因此,這些因素很可能會持續到第四季。總體而言,但從全年來看,我們符合指導方針和長期目標。是的,正如我們之前討論的一些銷售機會,我們在銷售團隊和新產品推廣方面所取得的勢頭將延續到明年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters of Raymond James. Your line is open.

    你的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Gregory Peters。您的線路已開通。

  • Gregory Peters - Analyst

    Gregory Peters - Analyst

  • So I'll focus my one question on the cash flow numbers. I know Elizabeth you called out some discrete items like tax and I'm not sure to the extent other variables might be affecting it. But I think from a bigger picture perspective, is there any step change in your conversion rate of free cash flow on an annual basis? And if so, what are the driving factors on that? Or I guess when I think about free cash flow for '26, I'm just wondering how I should look at your results in the third quarter and interpret -- and extrapolate that into how I think about next year?

    所以我的問題將集中在現金流數據上。我知道伊莉莎白,你提到了一些具體因素,例如稅收,但我不太確定其他變數在多大程度上會影響到它。但從更宏觀的角度來看,你們的年度自由現金流轉換率是否有任何階躍式變化?如果真是如此,那麼主要驅動因素是什麼?或者說,當我考慮 2026 年的自由現金流時,我只是想知道我應該如何看待你們第三季度的業績並進行解讀,以及如何將其推斷到我對明年的預期中?

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks for the question, Greg. And we're happy to highlight the strong free cash flow in this quarter and for the full year. I called out there was the cash tax benefit in the third quarter. There was also -- if you look on a year-to-date basis, there was a first quarter tax refund.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,格雷格。我們很高興地強調,本季和全年的自由現金流都非常強勁。我指出第三季有現金稅收優惠。此外,如果以年初至今的數據來看,還有第一季的退稅。

  • On a -- if you normalize for those, the free cash flow growth, I'd call it strong double digits. Another benefit that's helping us this year, although there's some quarterly variability to it is, we are seeing better collections and lower DSOs as we take advantage of the Oracle -- the ERP implementation that we've had. So there's some quarterly variability in that, but an improvement over last year. If you strip through all of that, we'd say probably the free cash flow growth is roughly in line with EBITDA growth but that's kind of an ongoing benefit that we expect to continue. And so this -- yes, this strong free cash flow growth is and will be the fuel to continue to drive our capital allocation engine, and we can choose to deploy that in continued organic investment in M&A and in return of capital where we have and can continue to lean in.

    如果將這些因素正常化,自由現金流成長率將達到強勁的兩位數。今年對我們有所幫助的另一個好處是(儘管存在一些季度波動),隨著我們利用 Oracle ERP 系統,我們看到收款情況有所改善,應收帳款週轉天數 (DSO) 有所下降。所以這方面存在一些季度波動,但比去年有所改善。如果剔除所有這些因素,我們認為自由現金流成長可能與 EBITDA 成長大致持平,但這是一種持續的收益,我們預計這種收益將持續下去。因此,是的,強勁的自由現金流成長現在是並將繼續成為我們資本配置引擎的燃料,我們可以選擇將其用於持續的併購有機投資,以及我們過去和將來都會大力投入的資本回報。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Kelsey Zhu of Autonomous Research.

    你的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Kelsey Zhu。

  • Kelsey Zhu - Analyst

    Kelsey Zhu - Analyst

  • You called out the competitive pressure in auto two quarters in a row now. So I was just wondering if you can give us an update on what is happening in that market and your strategy to maintain or expand share in that market?

    你連續兩個季度都指出了汽車產業的競爭壓力。所以我想請您介紹一下該市場的最新情況,以及您維持或擴大在該市場份額的策略?

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks for calling out, Kelsey. It's nothing new from last quarter. It's just the financial impact, which is in line with what we had called out in the last quarter. So no change. I think on there, we're spending time from a product side. We are focusing on the client feedback and the opportunities for competitive differentiating -- differentiation. We are focusing on areas where we may have a deeper data set and some deeper analytic objects that can build unique value proposition for the clients.

    是的。謝謝你指出來,凱爾西。這與上個季度的情況並無不同。這只是財務上的影響,這與我們上個季度預測的情況一致。所以沒有變化。我認為我們在這方面投入的時間主要來自於產品方面。我們專注於客戶回饋和競爭差異化的機會。我們專注於那些我們可能擁有更深層的資料集和一些更深層的分析對象的領域,這些對象可以為客戶建立獨特的價值主張。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Silber of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

    你的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。您的線路已開通。

  • Jeff Silber - Analyst

    Jeff Silber - Analyst

  • You mentioned premium growth levels in an answer to another question. I was wondering if you can just refresh our memory, what is the industry growing at this year? And what are your expectations for next year?

    您在回答另一個問題時提到了高額成長水準。我想請您幫我們回憶一下,今年該行業的成長情況如何?您對明年有什麼期望?

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Jeff. As you know, these -- the data takes a while to review, and it also varies line by line. In aggregate, across the industry, we were seeing high single-digit premium growth in 2024. Depending on the line that is perhaps normalizing to mid-single digits in 2025. But again, I'll remind you, while there is some input to some of our contracts to the net premium growth, that is only an input and not necessarily a main driver. We're focusing on the value delivery in those contracts.

    是的。謝謝你,傑夫。如您所知,這些數據需要一段時間才能審核,而且每行數據也不盡相同。總體而言,整個產業預計 2024 年保費將實現高個位數成長。根據這條線的情況來看,到 2025 年,這一數字可能會恢復到個位數中段水準。但我再次提醒各位,雖然我們的部分合約對淨保費成長有一定的影響,但這只是影響因素,並不一定是主要驅動因素。我們關注的是這些合約的價值交付。

  • Jeff Silber - Analyst

    Jeff Silber - Analyst

  • What are folks forecasting for next year?

    大家對明年有什麼預測?

  • Lee Shavel - CEO

    Lee Shavel - CEO

  • I think based upon what I see, Jeff, is they're expecting kind of that similar normalization into the mid-single digits. And obviously, it's going to vary by from product line to product line. And so I would just say directionally, what we're seeing is that normalization from a more inflation-oriented growth that elevated the industry for a while to a more normalized low to mid-single digits growth. But I also want to take the opportunity to reprise some of the statistics that we provided that over the past 15 years, there has not been a significant differentiation of our organic revenue growth rate in softer hard markets. I think the variation was between 6.8%.

    傑夫,根據我所看到的,我認為他們預計也會有類似的正常化趨勢,降到個位數中段。顯然,不同產品線的情況也會有所不同。因此,我想說的是,從方向上看,我們看到的是行業成長正從一段時間內以通膨為導向的正常化,轉變為更正常的低至中等個位數成長。但我還想藉此機會重申我們提供的一些統計數據,即在過去 15 年裡,我們在較疲軟的硬市場中的有機收入增長率並沒有出現顯著差異。我認為變化幅度在 6.8% 左右。

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • 6.8%. So historically, since we've been public in the soft market years, our growth has been about 6.8%, in hard market years, it's been, on average, 7.3%, so a slight impact.

    6.8%。因此,從歷史數據來看,自從我們上市以來,在市場疲軟的年份,我們的成長率約為 6.8%;在市場強勁的年份,平均成長率約為 7.3%,因此影響不大。

  • Lee Shavel - CEO

    Lee Shavel - CEO

  • And it underscores the fact that our revenue growth is tied to the value that we deliver and the expanding adoption of data and analytics by the insurance industry, which we continue to see. And as I mentioned in my remarks, we believe that AI is an accelerant to the effective utilization of our data sets. So well, we do look at overall industry premium growth as an indicator, it really is driven by data and technology adoption and the value that we're able to deliver in our function as an effective utility for the industry.

    這凸顯了我們的收入成長與我們提供的價值以及保險業對數據和分析的日益普及密切相關,而我們也一直在見證這一趨勢。正如我在演講中提到的,我們相信人工智慧能夠加速我們資料集的有效利用。所以,我們確實會將整個行業的保費增長作為一個指標來考察,這實際上是由數據和技術的採用以及我們作為行業有效公用事業機構所能提供的價值所驅動的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Alex Kramm of UBS.

    你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Alex Kramm。

  • Alex Kramm - Analyst

    Alex Kramm - Analyst

  • It seems like a lot of things I wanted to ask, have been asked and answered already. But maybe quickly on M&A. I know you're obviously focused on equaling and driving that forward. But just maybe some general perspective on how that -- how your M&A outlook has changed over the last three months? Do you feel like you have capacity for other things, what have prices done? And Lee, as you engage with the C-suite here more, are there any specific workflows that clients are asking for that you feel like M&A is the answer for those?

    很多我想問的問題似乎都已經被問過並且得到了解答。但或許併購會很快見效。我知道你顯然專注於實現並推動這一目標的實現。但或許可以談談您對併購前景的整體看法——過去三個月您的併購前景發生了哪些變化?你覺得自己還有精力做其他事嗎?價格波動對你造成了什麼影響?Lee,隨著你與公司高層的接觸越來越多,客戶是否提出了一些具體的流程要求,而你認為併購是解決這些問題的方法?

  • Lee Shavel - CEO

    Lee Shavel - CEO

  • Yes, Alex, thank you very much for the question. First, as you can imagine, we are very focused on the AccuLynx transaction. As Elizabeth indicated, we're continuing to work collaboratively and expeditiously with the FTC to execute that transaction, which we still fully believe in the strategic and the financial merits of. And so naturally, while we continue to monitor the market for opportunities that are additive where we can add value, I might say that our primary focus is on those deals, AccuLynx as well as the closed SuranceBay deal to make certain that those are effective. So we want to maintain our focus on delivering value and executing those transactions primarily.

    是的,Alex,非常感謝你的提問。首先,正如您所料,我們非常關注 AccuLynx 的交易。正如伊麗莎白所指出的,我們將繼續與聯邦貿易委員會密切合作,迅速推進該交易的執行,我們仍然完全相信該交易的戰略和財務價值。因此,我們自然會持續關注市場,尋找能增加價值的增值機會。我想說,我們的主要重點是這些交易,包括 AccuLynx 以及已完成的 SuranceBay 交易,以確保這些交易有效。因此,我們希望繼續專注於創造價值和執行這些交易。

  • But you always want to be aware of what is happening in the market. It's an interesting question in terms of what we're hearing from clients. I would say that while it tends not to be oriented to acquisition targets, I would kind of extend their desire to see a more centralized efficiency and connectivity as a part of what they do. And I would probably use SuranceBay as an example of where we've heard from our life clients that the kind of the regulatory element that SuranceBay provides is very additive and connective to what we're providing on the policy administration side. So -- and feedback that we received with regard to AccuLynx in terms of the ability to improve efficiency and connectivity for contractors and carriers is a benefit that we've talked about previously.

    但你始終需要了解市場動態。從客戶那裡聽到的回饋來看,這是一個很有趣的問題。我認為,雖然它往往不以收購目標為導向,但我認為他們希望看到更集中的效率和連接性,這也是他們工作的一部分。我可能會以 SuranceBay 為例,我們從人壽保險客戶那裡了解到,SuranceBay 提供的監管要素與我們在保單管理方面提供的服務非常契合,並能起到很好的補充作用。所以——我們收到的關於 AccuLynx 的回饋,即它能夠提高承包商和營運商的效率和連接性,是我們之前討論過的優勢。

  • So those are elements and anything that augments our data sets and allows them to be utilized more effectively or more broadly in the industry is what we're hearing from clients.

    所以,這些都是一些要素,任何能夠增強我們資料集並使其在行業中更有效或更廣泛利用的因素,都是我們從客戶那裡聽到的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Russell Quelch of Rothschild. Your line is open.

    你的下一個問題源自於羅斯柴爾德家族的羅素·奎爾奇的血脈。您的線路已開通。

  • Russell Quelch - Analyst

    Russell Quelch - Analyst

  • Yeah, thank you for taking my question. I appreciate your comments on AI and the opportunities that it brings to Verisk. But are there any of your large carriers that are talking to you about how they want to leverage AI to garner greater insights from their own sort of large amount of data they hold, particularly in the property insurance space. And I'm wondering if they are, how you think that could impact the long-term usage of contributory databases as per source of data for insurance pricing market company is?

    是的,謝謝你回答我的問題。感謝您對人工智慧及其為 Verisk 帶來的機會的評論。但是,你們的大型保險公司中,是否有任何一家正在與你們探討如何利用人工智慧從他們自身掌握的大量數據中獲取更深入的見解,尤其是在財產保險領域?我想知道,如果真是如此,您認為這會對保險定價市場公司的資料來源(即貢獻資料庫)的長期使用產生怎樣的影響?

  • Lee Shavel - CEO

    Lee Shavel - CEO

  • Thank you for the question, Russell. So certainly, our clients are looking to utilize AI against their existing businesses. But what I would emphasize is that their ability to analyze their own data, the overall market perspective of how the industry as a whole is performing and the benchmarking function remains very critical to that. What we have seen is that when clients are increasing the sophistication of their data assessment within their own lines of business, it increases their interest in comparing what they are doing to the industry as a whole. And because of the very rich data sets that we have, we can offer an enhancement and augmentation to what they are trying to do internally.

    謝謝你的提問,羅素。因此,我們的客戶當然希望利用人工智慧來發展他們現有的業務。但我想強調的是,他們分析自身數據的能力、對整個產業整體表現的市場視角以及基準測試功能仍然至關重要。我們發現,當客戶在其自身業務領域內不斷提高數據評估的複雜性時,他們就會越來越有興趣將自己所做的事情與整個行業進行比較。由於我們擁有非常豐富的數據集,我們可以為他們內部正在嘗試做的事情提供增強和補充。

  • Just using that internal data not enriched by the data sets, whether we have in Pro metrics to give very detailed information on properties that they can benchmark their own assessments against or the loss cost information that we have or the catastrophic risk exposure that we're able to model, all of that is an enhancement to what they are attempting to accomplish within their own applications. And so a key pillar of our AI strategy beyond developing the tools, beyond using AI for our own benefits is understanding what our clients' needs are so that we can partner and enhance what they're doing. We've heard that consistently. One kind of specific -- other specific example of even a data set in our admitted lines business becomes very relevant in benchmarking excess and surplus performance because it is a reference market for that. And as they have been increasingly sophisticated in tracking and contributing that data, that becomes an incremental value opportunity for us to provide that type of benchmarking and validation.

    僅僅使用未經數據集豐富而的內部數據,無論是我們在 Pro 指標中提供的非常詳細的房產信息(他們可以以此作為基準來評估自己的房產),還是我們擁有的損失成本信息,亦或是我們能夠建模的災難性風險敞口,所有這些都增強了他們在自己的應用程序中嘗試實現的目標。因此,除了開發工具、利用人工智慧為我們自己謀利之外,我們人工智慧策略的一個關鍵支柱是了解客戶的需求,以便我們能夠與他們合作並增強他們正在做的事情。我們一直都聽到這樣的說法。在我們認可的業務領域中,一個具體的資料集就是一個非常相關的基準,因為它是超額和剩餘業績的參考市場。隨著他們在追蹤和提供數據方面變得越來越成熟,這為我們提供了提供此類基準測試和驗證的增量價值機會。

  • So I think the point that I would summarize for you is that while they are looking to do these to analyze their own data, the connectivity and the enhancement of what we can provide becomes even more relevant.

    所以我認為我要總結的重點是,雖然他們這樣做是為了分析自己的數據,但我們所能提供的連接性和增強功能變得更加重要。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Scott Wurtzel of Wolfe Research.

    你的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Wurtzel。

  • Scott Wurtzel - Analyst

    Scott Wurtzel - Analyst

  • Just on AccuLynx, despite the closing of the transaction getting delayed given the second request. Just wondering, is there anything on the sort of technical integration side that during this sort of interim period to when the deal is eventually closed sort of speed up the overall integration process with AccuLynx?

    僅在 AccuLynx 上,儘管由於第二次請求,交易完成被延遲了。我想知道,在交易最終完成之前的這段過渡期內,從技術整合方面來看,有沒有什麼方法可以加快與 AccuLynx 的整體整合進程?

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • Thanks a bunch, Scott. The short answer is no. We are -- the legal requirements are to operate independently as two separate companies until that approval is given.

    非常感謝,斯科特。簡而言之,答案是否定的。根據法律規定,在獲得批准之前,我們必須作為兩家獨立的公司獨立運作。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden of Evercore. Your line is open.

    你的下一個問題來自 Evercore 樂團的 David Motemaden。您的線路已開通。

  • David Motemaden - Analyst

    David Motemaden - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. I just wanted to just ask -- I don't want to focus too much on one quarter too closely. But Elizabeth, you had talked about 6.8% OCC growth in softer markets, but it was 6.5% this quarter if we normalize for the light weather and the government contract. So I guess, why -- what is it about the environment now, which I think is still -- I wouldn't say we're in a soft market yet, I guess what's dragging down the OCC growth now from that 6.8% in the soft markets that you had sort of spoke about?

    嘿,早安。我只是想問——我不想過於關注某個季度。但伊莉莎白,你之前說過在市場疲軟的情況下,OCC 的成長率為 6.8%,但如果考慮到天氣疲軟和政府合約的影響,本季的成長率為 6.5%。所以我想,為什麼──現在的環境是什麼?我認為目前——我不會說我們正處於疲軟的市場中,我想是什麼拖累了OCC的成長,使其從您之前提到的疲軟市場中的6.8%下降?

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • Yes, David, look, there's always going to be some quarterly variability. This is not -- that was that 6.8% was an average across many different years, which themselves had a range of outcomes. So we've -- some of the factors I talked about this quarter were some of the swings and you may continue to see that in the future. But in the long term, we're very confident that we can continue to deliver growth rates within the long-term organic targets.

    是的,大衛,你看,季度之間總是會有一些波動。並非如此——6.8% 是許多不同年份的平均值,而這些年份本身的結果也各不相同。所以,我在本季談到的一些因素導致了價格波動,未來你可能會繼續看到這種情況。但從長遠來看,我們非常有信心能夠繼續實現長期有機成長目標。

  • Lee Shavel - CEO

    Lee Shavel - CEO

  • Yes. And David, the other differentiation that I would make is looking at the subscription growth, you can see that, that remains exceptionally strong and a function, again, of the value that we're delivering. I think when we are talking about software or hard markets, that really is going to play out in the subscription growth from a value perspective whereas clearly, within this quarter, that differentiation that 6.5% is primarily transactionally driven. So I would just -- I would make that distinction as you were thinking through that issue.

    是的。大衛,我想指出的另一個區別是,看看訂閱成長情況,你會發現它仍然非常強勁,這再次體現了我們所提供價值的體現。我認為,當我們談論軟體或硬市場時,這確實會從價值角度體現在訂閱成長上,而顯然,在本季度,6.5% 的差異化主要是交易驅動的。所以,我建議──在你思考這個問題的時候,要明確區分這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Jason Haas of Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

    (操作員說明)您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Jason Haas。您的線路已開通。

  • Jason Haas - Analyst

    Jason Haas - Analyst

  • So if we look at the OCC growth that you reported, the 5.5%, you called out 1% point from government and also the weather headwinds. So even if you add that back, you're at 6.5%. In the prior quarter, you were at 7.9%. So I'm trying to understand what caused that deceleration? Because in response to an earlier question, you said that the auto competition, it sounds like that's been a similar level.

    所以,如果我們看一下您報告的 OCC 成長率,5.5%,您指出政府因素導致 1 個百分點的成長率下降,還有天氣不利因素的影響。所以即使加上那部分,也只有 6.5%。上一季度,你們的成長率為 7.9%。所以我想弄清楚是什麼導致了減速?因為在回答之前的問題時,你說過汽車業的競爭,聽起來好像一直都處於類似的水平。

  • So yes, I'm just -- I think we're trying to figure out what caused that deceleration. And I think the concern is that your customers are seeing lower growth than they did last year. So is that what's weighing on the growth? Or can you unpack what caused this deceleration? So we can get some confidence for how the growth could accelerate going forward.

    是的,我只是——我想我們正在努力弄清楚是什麼導致了減速。我認為令人擔憂的是,您的客戶的成長速度比去年有所下降。這就是阻礙成長的原因嗎?或者你能分析一下造成這種減速的原因嗎?因此,我們可以對未來成長加速的趨勢抱持一定的信心。

  • I guess that will be past for case you'll have a tough compare. But yes, you can unpack that, I think that gives us a lot more confidence would be very helpful.

    我想,如果你要進行艱難的比較,那應該就過去了。是的,你可以詳細分析一下,我認為這會為我們帶來更大的信心,非常有幫助。

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks a bunch for the question, Jason. Yes, as we map to the last quarter, look, I called out a couple of factors in Q2 that were going to impact the second half of the year. We talked about the government contract and we talked about the softness in the auto space. those have played out in line with the way we talked about in the prior quarter.

    是的。傑森,非常感謝你的提問。是的,當我們回顧上個季度時,你看,我在第二季度指出了一些將影響下半年的因素。我們討論了政府合同,也討論了汽車業的疲軟狀況。這些情況的發展與我們上一季的預測基本一致。

  • So I think on the auto softness side, we called it out as something we saw coming ahead. it wasn't necessarily impacting the second quarter yet, which is, of course, why we called it out as something for the second half of the year. So -- and then what we hadn't yet seen at the time was the light weather activity which typically that third quarter is the prime quarter for severe convective storms and North Atlantic hurricanes. So it's really those factors that are impacting it. Again, of those three, what we call temporary factors, two of them were as anticipated and then the weather was an additional point.

    所以我覺得,就汽車市場疲軟而言,我們之前就已經預料到了。它當時還沒有必然影響到第二季度,當然,這也是為什麼我們把它預測為下半年才會出現的問題。所以——當時我們還沒有看到的是輕微的天氣活動,而通常情況下,第三季度是強對流風暴和北大西洋颶風的主要季度。所以,真正影響它的就是這些因素。再說一遍,在這三個我們稱為暫時性因素的因素中,有兩個正如預期的那樣,而天氣則是一個額外的因素。

  • I think going back to our emphasis on the subscription revenue, that strength there demonstrates what we think -- if -- somewhere in your question was, are we seeing customer hesitation and the answer is no. You can see that in the subscription growth. You can see that in the strong sales momentum that we've highlighted. So we really do think it is a function of the temporary factors.

    我認為,回到我們對訂閱收入的重視,這方面的優勢表明了我們的想法——如果你的問題中提到,我們是否看到了客戶的猶豫,答案是否定的。從訂閱用戶成長情況可以看出這一點。從我們重點提到的強勁銷售動能中就可以看出這一點。所以我們確實認為這是暫時性因素造成的。

  • Lee Shavel - CEO

    Lee Shavel - CEO

  • And I would just add to that. As you heard us say, we remain very confident in our ability to continue to deliver growth in that 6% to 8% range on an ongoing basis, notwithstanding the temporary factors that Elizabeth just described. The fundamental dynamics of client demand, the integration, the elevated dialogue, AI opportunities that we are experiencing and are demonstrated in our subscription growth that underpins our ongoing confidence of adhering to our long-term growth model.

    我還要補充一點。正如你們所聽到的,儘管伊莉莎白剛才描述了一些暫時的因素,但我們仍然非常有信心能夠繼續保持 6% 到 8% 的成長速度。客戶需求的基本動態、整合、更高層次的對話、人工智慧帶來的機遇,以及我們正在經歷的這些變化,都體現在我們的訂閱成長中,這鞏固了我們對堅持長期成長模式的持續信心。

  • Jason Haas - Analyst

    Jason Haas - Analyst

  • Okay, that's great to hear. Thank you very much.

    好的,聽到這個消息真是太好了。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Nicholas of William Blair. Your line is open.

    你的下一個問題來自安德魯·尼古拉斯的威廉·布萊爾家族。您的線路已開通。

  • Andrew Nicholas - Analyst

    Andrew Nicholas - Analyst

  • Just one quick one for me. Just on AccuLynx, I understand you're going through the second request from the FTC, and you can't do anything from an integration perspective. But have you been able to have maybe more lengthy dialogues with your clients on the strategic merits to that deal and maybe the opportunity for increased engagement in that part of the insurance ecosystem to this point? And if so, would be curious to see what the feedback has been on that front.

    我只問一個問題。就 AccuLynx 而言,據我了解,你們正在處理 FTC 的第二次請求,從整合角度來看,你們什麼也做不了。但是,到目前為止,您是否能夠與您的客戶就該交易的戰略價值以及在保險生態系統該部分增加參與的機會進行更長時間的對話?如果真是這樣,我很想知道這方面的回饋如何。

  • Lee Shavel - CEO

    Lee Shavel - CEO

  • Yes, Andrew, let me start and Elizabeth, who's been involved in our interim claims role can supplement this. Obviously, the announcement has been in the public domain. Our clients have been interested. We've been spending time describing what we think the strategic and the business merits are. And I think we have received an endorsement from them in terms of what we -- what we can accomplish across both the data and the connectivity element.

    是的,安德魯,我先開始,伊麗莎白一直在我們臨時索賠部門工作,她可以補充一些內容。顯然,該消息已公開。我們的客戶對此很感興趣。我們一直在花時間闡述我們認為的策略和商業優勢。我認為,他們在數據和連接性方面所取得的成就,已經得到了他們的認可。

  • So obviously, this all remains subject to the process, and we continue to work, as we've said, collaboratively and expeditiously with the FTC to bring this to a close, but we have been engaged.

    顯然,這一切仍取決於程序,正如我們所說,我們將繼續與聯邦貿易委員會合作,迅速結束此事,但我們一直都在積極參與。

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • Yes. I would just add from the dialogue that I've had with clients on the claim side, we've had, I would say, high-level discussions in line with operating as two separate companies. So we've gotten positive feedback for the deal, a positive feedback in terms of the benefits it would bring to the industry, but we haven't gone into specific discussions as that would not be appropriate. Our primary focus right now is on completing the deal.

    是的。我還要補充一點,根據我與客戶在理賠方面的對話,我們已經就作為兩家獨立公司運營進行了高層次的討論。因此,我們收到了對這筆交易的正面回饋,即它將給產業帶來的好處,但我們還沒有進行具體討論,因為這樣做並不合適。我們現在的首要任務是完成這筆交易。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Meuler of Baird. Your line is open.

    你的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Jeff Meuler。您的線路已開通。

  • Jeff Meuler - Analyst

    Jeff Meuler - Analyst

  • Yeah, thank you. Good morning. I just want to make sure I'm mapping the headwinds you're calling out correctly to subs and transactional. So I guess, subs growth decelerated by 60 basis points into a tougher comp. It sounds like the government headwind is in subscription, if you can confirm that. And then for transactional, that's where you're seeing both the weather headwind or the majority of it and the auto headwind or the preponderance of it is also in transactional, if you can confirm that? And just to be clear, what we're talking about, is this just like one lost client in a business where you've forever been in a challenger position.

    是啊,謝謝。早安.我只是想確保我正確地將你提到的不利因素映射到子程序和事務處理。所以我覺得,由於競爭更加激烈,訂閱用戶成長速度放緩了 60 個基點。聽起來政府的阻力確實存在,如果你能證實這一點的話。然後,就交易而言,您能否確認一下,天氣方面的不利因素(或者說大部分不利因素)和汽車方面的不利因素(或者說大部分不利因素)也都出現在交易中?需要明確的是,我們所討論的,就像在一個你一直處於挑戰者地位的企業中失去一個客戶一樣。

  • Elizabeth Mann - CFO

    Elizabeth Mann - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks for the question, Jeff. On the subs trans breakdown, that's -- yes, that's right. The government contract is entirely subscription. The weather and the auto piece are primarily transactional but do have a bit of impact on subscription as well.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,傑夫。關於子音軌的分解,是--是的,沒錯。政府合約完全採用訂閱模式。天氣和汽車配件主要與交易有關,但對訂閱也有一定的影響。

  • And so the subscription growth is all the more notable in absorbing those headwinds as well and pointing to the strength around the business. On the auto side, it's a bit more general than that.

    因此,訂閱用戶的成長在抵禦這些不利因素的同時,也更加引人注目,這顯示了公司業務的強勁實力。在汽車領域,情況則較為廣泛一些。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • With no further questions, that concludes our Q&A session and today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    大家沒有其他問題了,問答環節和今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。