Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Verisk fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings results conference call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加 Verisk 2024 年第四季及全年收益業績電話會議。本次通話正在錄音。（操作說明）

For the opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Verisk Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Stacey Brodbar. Ms. Brodbar, please go ahead.

接下來，我將把電話交給 Verisk 投資者關係主管 Stacey Brodbar 女士，請她致開幕詞並作介紹。布羅德巴女士，請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good day, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for a discussion of our fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results. On the call today are Lee Shavel, Verisk's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Elizabeth Mann, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，祝大家今天愉快。感謝您今天蒞臨本次會議，與我們共同探討 2024 年第四季及全年財務表現。今天參加電話會議的有 Verisk 總裁兼執行長 Lee Shavel 和財務長 Elizabeth Mann。

The earnings release referenced on this call, as well as our traditional quarterly earnings presentation and the associated 10-K, can be found in the Investors section of our website, verisk.com. The earnings release has also been attached to an 8-K that we have furnished to the SEC.

本次電話會議中提到的獲利報告，以及我們傳統的季度獲利報告和相關的10-K表格，都可以在我們網站verisk.com的投資者關係欄位中找到。該盈利報告也已附在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的8-K表格中。

A replay of this call will be available for 30 days on our website and by dial-in. As set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, I will remind everyone today's call may include forward-looking statements about various future performance, including those related to our financial guidance. Actual performance could differ materially from what is suggested by our comments today. Information about the factors that could affect future performance is contained in our recent SEC filings.

本次通話的錄音將在我們的網站上保留 30 天，也可透過電話撥入收聽。正如今天發布的收益報告中更詳細闡述的那樣，我要提醒大家，今天的電話會議可能包含有關未來業績的各種前瞻性陳述，包括與我們的財務指引相關的陳述。實際表現可能與我們今天所作的評論有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的因素的資訊已包含在我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。

A reconciliation of reported and historic non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call is provided in our 8-K and today's earnings presentation posted on the Investors section of our website, verisk.com. However, we are not able to provide a reconciliation of projected adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins to the most directly comparable expected GAAP results because of the unreasonable effort and high unpredictability of estimating certain items that are excluded from projected non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin, including, for example, tax consequences, acquisition-related costs, gains and losses from dispositions, and other non-recurring expenses, the effect of which may be significant.

本次電話會議討論的已報告和歷史非GAAP財務指標的調節表已在我們的8-K表格和今天發佈於我們網站verisk.com投資者關係欄目的盈利演示文稿中提供。然而，由於估算某些已從預期非GAAP調整後EBITDA和調整後EBITDA利潤率中排除的項目（例如，稅務影響、收購相關成本、處置損益以及其他非經常性支出）難度極大且不確定性高，我們無法提供預計調整後EBITDA和調整後EBITDA利潤率與最直接可比的預期GAAP結果的調節表。這些項目的影響可能很大。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Lee Shavel.

現在我想把電話交給李沙維爾。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in our call today. I am pleased to share that Verisk delivered strong fourth-quarter results, underscored by 11% subscription growth and solid margin expansion, translating into double-digit profit growth. Organic constant currency revenue growth of 8.6% was a sequential improvement from the third quarter driven by underlying sales momentum along with certain benefits from elevated storm-related transactional activity from Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

各位早安，感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。我很高興地宣布，Verisk 第四季業績表現強勁，訂閱用戶成長 11%，利潤率穩步提升，最終實現了兩位數的利潤成長。有機固定匯率營收成長 8.6%，較第三季有所改善，這得益於潛在的銷售勢頭，以及颶風海倫和米爾頓帶來的風暴相關交易活動增加所帶來的一些好處。

Despite the storm benefits, transactional revenues were down slightly in the quarter due to the ongoing conversion of transactional revenues into committed subscription contracts that we have spoken to you about (technical difficulty) This fourth quarter capped off a solid annual performance that compounded on top of a strong growth in 2023 and was in line with our guidance and the longer-term expectations we set at Investor Day in 2023.

儘管風暴帶來了一些好處，但由於我們之前已經和您討論過的交易收入向承諾訂閱合約的轉換（技術困難），本季交易收入略有下降。第四季為穩健的年度業績畫上了圓滿的句號，延續了 2023 年的強勁增長勢頭，符合我們的指導方針以及我們在 2023 年投資者日上設定的長期預期。

For 2024, Verisk delivered OCC revenue growth of 7.1%, OCC adjusted EBITDA growth of 9.9%, and 120 basis points of margin expansion, resulting in 16% EPS growth. Elizabeth will provide the financial details in her review, but these results are further demonstration of our predictable growth trajectory and our results-oriented culture.

2024 年，Verisk 的 OCC 營收成長了 7.1%，OCC 調整後 EBITDA 成長了 9.9%，利潤率提高了 120 個基點，最終實現了 16% 的每股盈餘成長。伊麗莎白將在她的報告中提供財務細節，但這些結果進一步證明了我們可預測的成長軌跡和以結果為導向的企業文化。

We built strong momentum throughout the year and delivered these results by focusing on three key initiatives: one, enhancing our go-to-market approach; two, elevating and intensifying our strategic dialogue with clients; and three, investing in innovation at scale on behalf of the industry. Let me spend a few minutes on each and discuss how we plan to further advance on them in 2025 to deliver another year of strong growth, profitability, and invention.

我們全年保持強勁的發展勢頭，並透過專注於三項關鍵舉措取得了這些成果：一、加強我們的市場推廣策略；二、提升和深化我們與客戶的戰略對話；三、代表行業大規模投資創新。讓我花幾分鐘時間逐一介紹，並討論我們計劃如何在 2025 年進一步推進這些方面，以實現又一個強勁增長、盈利能力和創新的年份。

First, in 2023, our businesses worked with an outside consultant to incorporate sales enhancement strategies tailored for each business. As a result, in 2024, we aligned sales territories and account teams for improved client coverage and implemented new sales force compensation plans that better match with business needs and industry best practices. Additionally, we introduced product integration in certain businesses for a simpler sales process.

首先，在 2023 年，我們的業務部門與外部顧問合作，制定了針對每個業務部門量身打造的銷售提升策略。因此，在 2024 年，我們調整了銷售區域和客戶團隊，以改善客戶覆蓋範圍，並實施了新的銷售人員薪酬計劃，以更好地滿足業務需求和行業最佳實踐。此外，我們還在某些業務中引入了產品集成，以簡化銷售流程。

Finally, we introduced pricing optimization strategies and tools to drive a more value-based conversation with clients. Specifically, in our Extreme Events business where we recently introduced our global suite of next generation models, we benefited from this new client-centric approach as we are capturing strong value-based price realization and extending duration in contract renewals. After a year of record new sales across all of Verisk, our sales teams are energized as we enter 2025, as they have identified further areas to improve, including cross-business unit sales collaboration opportunities.

最後，我們引入了定價優化策略和工具，以推動與客戶之間更重視價值的對話。具體來說，在我們最近推出全球新一代模型套件的極限活動業務中，我們受益於這種以客戶為中心的新方法，因為我們獲得了強大的基於價值的價格實現，並在合約續約中延長了期限。在 Verisk 各部門的新銷售額創下歷史新高之後，我們的銷售團隊在進入 2025 年之際充滿活力，因為他們已經確定了更多需要改進的領域，包括跨業務部門的銷售合作機會。

Our second initiative has focused on enhancing and deepening engagement across the broader industry-wide and C-suite level. This approach has given various deeper insights into our clients' enterprise needs, broadened and strengthened our relationships, and opened new opportunities with carriers, intermediaries, reinsurers, regulators, and other ecosystem participants.

我們的第二項措施著重於加強和深化與整個產業以及高階主管層的互動。這種方法讓我們對客戶的企業需求有了更深入的了解，拓寬並加強了我們與客戶的關係，並為保險公司、中介機構、再保險公司、監管機構和其他生態系統參與者開闢了新的機會。

These stronger connections have allowed us to discuss with clients the value we bring to the ecosystem and have resulted in stronger renewals and improved sales outcomes. This impact has been especially significant within our largest clients where we have achieved accelerating growth.

這些更緊密的聯繫使我們能夠與客戶討論我們為生態系統帶來的價值，並帶來了更強勁的續約和更好的銷售表現。這種影響在我們最大的客戶群中尤其顯著，我們實現了加速成長。

In 2025, we are expanding this approach with more clients reinforcing our trusted partnerships. For example, our broadened approach to industry engagement has created new opportunities for our Anti-Fraud business to serve the state insurance departments and the National Insurance Crime Bureau. By leveraging our core ClaimSearch platform and advanced analytic tools, we help automate and triage the increasing number of criminal referrals and leads these agencies receive every day. Our work is helping state fraud bureaus operate more efficiently and effectively, ultimately saving the system money while improving benefits to the consumer. We have identified further opportunities to scale this initiative into additional states over time.

2025年，我們將擴大此模式，與更多客戶建立並加強我們值得信賴的合作關係。例如，我們擴大了與業界的合作方式，為我們的反詐欺業務創造了新的機遇，使其能夠為州保險部門和國家保險犯罪局提供服務。透過利用我們的核心 ClaimSearch 平台和先進的分析工具，我們協助自動化處理和分類這些機構每天收到的日益增加的犯罪轉介和線索。我們的工作有助於各州反詐騙機構更有效率、更有效地運作，最終為系統節省資金，同時提高消費者的利益。我們已發現未來有機會將這項計劃推廣到更多州。

Our third initiative is investing in innovation at scale on behalf of the industry. Our strong free cash flow generation allows us to invest both in improving the value of our existing solutions and inventing new solutions to address industry needs. Our Core Lines Reimagine project is a prime example of the greater value we are driving for our clients. Throughout 2024, we introduced new features onto the digital platform, like the Actuarial Hub, which provides tools and risk insights to help insurers leverage ISO loss cost data quickly and confidently to address the evolving pricing needs of the market.

我們的第三項措施是代表業界大規模投資創新。我們強勁的自由現金流使我們能夠投資於提升現有解決方案的價值，並發明新的解決方案以滿足產業需求。我們的核心產品線重塑專案是我們為客戶創造更大價值的絕佳範例。2024 年全年，我們在數位平台上推出了新功能，例如精算中心，它提供工具和風險洞察，幫助保險公司快速、自信地利用 ISO 損失成本數據，以滿足不斷變化的市場定價需求。

Additionally, our Future of Forms tool is helping underwriters quickly analyze and react to form changes that are impacting filings, driving efficiency, and faster speed to market. And just in the fourth quarter, we introduced Future of Forms and Filing Intelligence for the business owners line.

此外，我們的「未來表格」工具正在幫助核保人快速分析和應對影響備案的表格變更，從而提高效率並加快上市速度。就在第四季度，我們為企業主推出了未來表單和歸檔智慧解決方案。

We also introduced a new ISO forms library experience with the replatforming of our forms library from our legacy ISOnet. The new forms library experience includes an improved search function, a more intuitive user experience, and the ability to bulk download forms from the library. In total, we introduced 13 modules across Core Lines Reimagine in 2024, and we are slated to introduce an even greater number of modules throughout 2025.

我們也引進了全新的 ISO 表單庫體驗，將我們的表單庫從原有的 ISOnet 平台遷移到了新的平台。新的表單庫體驗包括改進的搜尋功能、更直觀的用戶體驗以及從庫中批量下載表單的功能。2024 年，我們在核心產品線重塑計畫中總共推出了 13 個模組，並且計劃在 2025 年推出更多模組。

In our Extreme Events business, our sustained investment behind cutting-edge science and advanced technologies has delivered models that have proven to be accurate and loss predictive through the recent hurricanes and wildfires. In June of 2024, we released an update to our California wildfire model that included the impacts of downslope Santa Ana winds that contributed to the devastating Eaton and Palisades wildfires. We've estimated a loss range of $28 billion to $35 billion for these two events, and clients who are already using the model had access to simulated scenarios that were predictive of the losses that tragically occurred.

在我們的極端事件業務中，我們對尖端科學和先進技術的持續投入，已經建立了在最近的颶風和野火中被證明準確且能夠預測損失的模型。2024 年 6 月，我們發布了加州野火模型的更新版本，其中包括下坡聖安娜風的影響，這種風導致了毀滅性的伊頓野火和帕利塞茲野火。我們估計這兩起事件造成的損失在 280 億美元到 350 億美元之間，已經使用該模型的客戶可以存取模擬場景，這些場景可以預測悲劇發生的損失。

We are continuing our typical pace of investment to keep our models at the highest levels of predictive science and have plans for an update to our US severe convective storm model to be released later this year.

我們將繼續保持一貫的投資步伐，以使我們的模型保持在預測科學的最高水平，並計劃在今年稍後發布美國強對流風暴模型的更新版本。

We are also taking the learnings from our elevated strategic conversations with clients and investing behind initiatives that they are most focused on. To that end, this year, we are increasing investment toward new inventions that integrate data sets from across Underwriting, Claims and Extreme Events. At Investor Day, we discussed with you how we are moving from a siloed organization to one that is more integrated, and this invention focus moves us one step closer on that journey. And we are hearing from clients that they too want help flowing information better within their own organizations and across the ecosystem.

我們也將從與客戶的深入策略對話中汲取經驗，並投資他們最關注的舉措。為此，今年我們將加強對整合核保、理賠和極端事件等各領域資料集的新發明的投資。在投資者日上，我們與大家討論了我們如何從一個各自為政的組織轉變為一個更加一體化的組織，而這種對發明創造的關注使我們離這個目標又更近了一步。我們也從客戶那裡了解到，他們也希望獲得幫助，以便在他們自己的組織內部以及整個生態系統中更好地流動資訊。

Verisk is in a unique position to invent solutions with a great competitive differentiation that can help bridge these long-standing industry practices. Verisk Augmented Underwriting is one such example. This innovative solution combines our rich property data sets from Underwriting with our software capabilities in Specialty Business Solutions and our catastrophe modeling expertise to provide a seamless end-to-end solution that enables our clients to evaluate large-scale property inquiries to ensure optimal pricing and coverage. Augmented Underwriting offers clients an automated way to evaluate large numbers of property files that they previously could not address with manual processes, enabling better risk selection and, ultimately, portfolio optimization.

Verisk 擁有獨特的優勢，能夠發明具有巨大競爭優勢的解決方案，從而幫助彌合這些長期存在的行業慣例。Verisk增強型承保就是其中一個例子。這項創新解決方案結合了我們核保部門豐富的財產資料集、專業業務解決方案的軟體功能以及我們的災害建模專業知識，提供了一個無縫的端到端解決方案，使我們的客戶能夠評估大規模的財產查詢，以確保最佳定價和承保範圍。增強型核保為客戶提供了一種自動化的方式來評估他們以前無法透過人工流程處理的大量財產檔案，從而能夠更好地進行風險選擇，並最終實現投資組合優化。

Additionally, we continue to grow our claims ecosystem to drive more connectivity and interoperability within the industry. Within Property Estimating Solutions, we have added 21 new partners to our ecosystem in the last year, and we now connect over 100 industry participants, which offers our clients more choice from the platform as well as a seamless workflow tool that streamlines operations for improved outcomes.

此外，我們將繼續發展理賠生態系統，以推動產業內更多的連結性和互通性。在房地產估價解決方案領域，我們去年新增了 21 個合作夥伴，目前已連接了 100 多個行業參與者，這為我們的客戶提供了更多平台選擇，以及一個簡化操作、提高效率的無縫工作流程工具。

We are also extending that ecosystem approach within our Anti-Fraud business, with solid growth from three partners in 2024 and plans to add up to 20 new partners in 2025. This will enable the industry to more effectively fight fraud, waste and abuse, and ultimately benefit consumers and policyholders.

我們也在反詐騙業務中推廣這種生態系統方法，2024 年透過三個合作夥伴實現了穩健成長，並計劃在 2025 年新增多達 20 個合作夥伴。這將使保險業更有效地打擊詐欺、浪費和濫用行為，最終使消費者和投保人受益。

During the fourth quarter, we sold a small nonstrategic asset called Atmospheric and Environmental Research, or AER, which was part of our Underwriting subsegment. AER's solution set had little strategic or customer overlap with our other businesses, and this sale is further evidence of our active portfolio management.

第四季度，我們出售了一項名為大氣與環境研究（簡稱 AER）的小型非策略性資產，該資產是我們承保子部門的一部分。AER 的解決方案組合與我們的其他業務在策略或客戶方面幾乎沒有重疊，此次出售進一步證明了我們積極的投資組合管理。

Before I close, I want to take a moment to address the devastating wildfires in Southern California, which have had a profound impact on individuals, businesses, communities, and our insurance industry clients. Across Verisk, we are actively supporting our clients during this challenging time. Within our Property Estimating Solutions business, we are equipping claims adjusters and restoration contractors with tools to streamline the claims estimation and rebuilding process.

在結束演講之前，我想花一點時間談談南加州毀滅性的野火，這場野火對個人、企業、社區以及我們的保險業客戶都產生了深遠的影響。Verisk 上下都在積極支持我們的客戶度過這段充滿挑戰的時期。在我們的財產估價解決方案業務中，我們正在為理賠員和修復承包商配備工具，以簡化理賠估價和重建流程。

Specifically, we are offering the AI-enabled ClaimXperience Solution, including its personal property and additional living expense modules, to help clients collaborate more effectively and deliver faster and more accurate assistance to policyholders. These capabilities not only enhance the efficiency of the claims process but also provide critical support for policyholders as they navigate their recovery.

具體來說，我們提供人工智慧驅動的 ClaimXperience 解決方案，包括其個人財產和額外生活費用模組，以幫助客戶更有效地協作，並為保單持有人提供更快、更準確的幫助。這些功能不僅提高了理賠流程的效率，而且在保單持有人進行理賠恢復的過程中也提供了關鍵的支援。

We also have representatives from our survey teams from Underwriting and Extreme Events on the ground to help understand in real time the disruption and impact of the wildfires to ultimately incorporate into our models. Even before this year's fires, Verisk was the first organization to submit a wildfire model as part of the California Department of Insurance initiative to stabilize the insurance market. Models provide insights into natural disaster risks and we believe can support increased insurance availability across the state, which will benefit all stakeholders.

我們還派出了承保和極端事件調查團隊的代表前往現場，幫助我們即時了解野火造成的破壞和影響，以便最終將其納入我們的模型中。甚至在今年的火災之前，Verisk 就是第一個提交野火模型的機構，這是加州保險部為穩定保險市場而採取的舉措的一部分。模型能夠幫助我們深入了解自然災害風險，我們相信這些模型可以提高全州的保險覆蓋率，從而使所有利害關係人受益。

Notwithstanding the significant losses the industry is bearing related to the LA fires, the overall trends of strong premium growth and improving profitability in 2024 are a positive for the industry's interest and capability to adopt and integrate improved data, analytics, and technology into their businesses.

儘管洛杉磯火災對保險業造成了重大損失，但2024年保費強勁增長和盈利能力提高的總體趨勢，有利於提高保險業採用和整合改進的數據、分析和技術到其業務中的興趣和能力。

Now let me turn the call over to Elizabeth to review our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year, as well as provide our detailed guidance for 2025.

現在，我把電話交給伊麗莎白，讓她回顧我們第四季度和全年的財務業績，並提供我們對 2025 年的詳細指導。

Thanks, Lee, and good day to everyone on the call. On a consolidated and GAAP basis, fourth-quarter revenue was $736 million, up 8.6% versus the prior year, reflecting solid levels of growth across both underwriting and claims. Income from continuing operations was $204 million, up 12% versus the prior year, while diluted GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations were $1.44, up 15% versus the prior year. The increase in diluted GAAP EPS was driven by strong operating performance, a litigation reserve expense in the prior-year period, and lower share count.

謝謝李，也祝福所有參加電話會議的朋友們今天愉快。以合併及GAAP準則計算，第四季營收為7.36億美元，比上年同期成長8.6%，反映出核保和理賠業務均實現了穩健成長。持續經營業務收入為 2.04 億美元，比上年增長 12%；持續經營業務稀釋後每股收益為 1.44 美元，比上年增長 15%。稀釋後 GAAP 每股盈餘的成長主要得益於強勁的經營業績、上年同期訴訟準備金支出以及較低的股份數量。

Moving to our organic constant currency results adjusted for nonoperating items, as defined in the non-GAAP financial measures section of our press release, our operating results demonstrated growth across both underwriting and claims. In the fourth quarter, OCC revenues grew 8.6%, with growth of 7% in Underwriting and 12.7% in Claims. This represents sequential improvement in our revenue growth rates across both subsegments and capped off another year of results in line with our longer-term targets that we laid out at our 2023 Investor Day. For the full year 2024, we delivered OCC revenue growth of 7.1%, compounding on the strong 8.7% OCC revenue growth from 2023.

根據我們在新聞稿的非GAAP財務指標部分中定義的非經營性項目調整後的有機固定匯率業績，我們的經營業績顯示承保和理賠均實現了增長。第四季度，OCC 營收成長 8.6%，其中承保業務成長 7%，理賠業務成長 12.7%。這代表著我們兩個子部門的營收成長率均有所提高，也標誌著我們又一年的業績符合我們在 2023 年投資者日上所訂定的長期目標。2024 年全年，我們的 OCC 營收成長了 7.1%，延續了 2023 年 OCC 營收 8.7% 的強勁成長動能。

Our subscription revenues, which comprised 82% of our total revenue in the quarter, grew 11% on an OCC basis during the fourth quarter. The drivers of growth in the quarter were consistent with trends we have seen throughout 2024, including strength across our largest subscription-based businesses as well as the continued conversion to subscription from previously transactional contracts.

本季度，訂閱收入佔總收入的 82%，第四季以 OCC 計算成長了 11%。本季的成長動力與我們在 2024 年全年看到的趨勢一致，包括我們最大的訂閱業務的強勁表現，以及從先前的交易合約持續向訂閱模式的轉變。

We continue to see positive outcomes in Forms Rules of Loss costs as our investment in Core Lines Reimagine is delivering additional value for our clients, leading to strong renewals. In Extreme Event Solutions, as we mentioned earlier, our enhanced go-to-market strategy is helping drive new customer wins as well as strong renewals with extended terms.

我們持續看到「損失規則表格」成本方面取得積極成果，因為我們對「核心險種重塑」的投資正在為我們的客戶帶來更多價值，從而帶來強勁的續保業績。正如我們之前提到的，在極限活動解決方案方面，我們改進的市場推廣策略正在幫助我們贏得新客戶，並實現續約，延長合約期限。

Within Property Estimating Solutions, we are seeing strong sales of our advanced analytics, including XactXpert, and our weather applications, which focus on hail and winds. And finally, our pricing and bundling strategy is driving solid growth in our Anti-Fraud business.

在房地產估價解決方案領域，我們的高級分析產品（包括 XactXpert）和天氣應用程式（主要針對冰雹和強風）的銷售情況良好。最後，我們的定價和捆綁銷售策略正在推動反詐騙業務的穩健成長。

Our transactional revenue declined 1.1% on an OCC basis during the fourth quarter. This decrease reflects the continued conversion to subscription from previously transactional revenues, including the impact of the one discrete contract we have spoken to you about previously. We also experienced a more normalized level of attrition, particularly within the InsurTech customer segment of our auto business. The decline was partially offset by the elevated levels of transactional volume in our Property Estimating Solutions business related to Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

第四季度，我們的交易收入按 OCC 計算下降了 1.1%。這一下降反映了收入模式從以前的交易型收入持續向訂閱型收入轉變，其中包括我們之前與您討論過的那份獨立合約的影響。我們也經歷了更正常的客戶流失率，尤其是在我們汽車業務的保險科技客戶群中。颶風海倫和颶風米爾頓帶來的房地產估價解決方案業務交易量激增，部分抵消了上述下滑。

Moving now to our adjusted EBITDA results, OCC adjusted EBITDA growth was 13.5% in the quarter. While total adjusted EBITDA margin, which includes both organic and inorganic results, was 54.1%, up 70 basis points from the reported results in the prior year. This quarter's margin expansion highlights the effects of strong revenue growth and ongoing cost discipline, including the benefits of our global talent optimization initiatives. We did experience a modest headwind in this quarter's margin from foreign exchange translation, offsetting the benefit that we experienced in the third quarter.

現在來看我們調整後的 EBITDA 結果，OCC 本季調整後的 EBITDA 成長率為 13.5%。經調整的總 EBITDA 利潤率（包括有機成長和非有機成長）為 54.1%，比上年公佈的業績提高了 70 個基點。本季利潤率的提升凸顯了強勁的營收成長和持續的成本控制所帶來的影響，包括我們全球人才優化計畫帶來的益處。本季外匯折算對利潤率造成了一定的不利影響，抵銷了第三季所取得的收益。

For the full year 2024, adjusted EBITDA margins were 54.7%, up 120 basis points year over year and in the upper half of our guided range. This margin reflects core operating leverage on our solid revenue growth and continued cost discipline while also absorbing the impact of our self-funded investments back into our business to fund future growth. I also would note that while it caused quarterly variability, foreign currency translation had minimal impact on full-year results.

2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 54.7%，年增 120 個基點，處於我們預期範圍的上半部。這項利潤率反映了我們穩健的營收成長和持續的成本控制所帶來的核心營運槓桿效應，同時也吸收了我們自籌資金投資對業務的影響，從而為未來的成長提供資金。我還想指出，雖然外幣折算造成了季度波動，但對全年業績的影響微乎其微。

Continuing down the income statement, net interest expense was $35 million, compared to $28 million in the same period last year. This increase is primarily due to higher interest expenses from the issuance of senior notes in the second quarter at a higher interest rate, leading to an increased run rate expense going forward. We do have a $500 million maturity coming due in June 2025. And given that our leverage is slightly below the low end of our targeted range of 2 to 3 times adjusted EBITDA, we will likely refinance during the year.

繼續查看損益表，淨利息支出為 3,500 萬美元，而去年同期為 2,800 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於第二季以較高利率發行高級票據導致利息支出增加，從而導致未來運行率支出增加。我們確實有一筆 5 億美元的債務將於 2025 年 6 月到期。鑑於我們的槓桿率略低於我們目標範圍（調整後 EBITDA 的 2 到 3 倍）的下限，我們可能會在年內進行再融資。

Our reported effective tax rate was 26%, compared to 24.9% in the prior-year quarter, reflecting the timing of certain discrete tax items as well as the tax impact from the disposition of AER in the quarter. On a full-year basis, our tax rate was 22.6%, as compared to 25.2% in the prior year, reflecting the benefit from certain onetime discrete items in the current year as well as impact from our energy divestiture in the prior year.

我們報告的實際稅率為 26%，而去年同期為 24.9%，這反映了某些特定稅務項目的發生時間以及本季處置 AER 的稅務影響。全年稅率為 22.6%，而前一年為 25.2%，這反映了本年度某些一次性離散項目的收益以及上一年能源資產剝離的影響。

Adjusted net income increased 11.6% to $228 million and diluted adjusted EPS increased 15% to $1.61 for the quarter. The increase is primarily driven by solid revenue growth, strong margin expansion and a lower average share count. This was partially offset by the higher interest expense and a higher tax rate. For the full year, adjusted EPS of $6.64 was up 16.3%, reflecting strong operational growth, a lower tax rate and lower share count, offset in part by higher interest expense.

本季經調整淨利成長 11.6% 至 2.28 億美元，稀釋後經調整每股收益成長 15% 至 1.61 美元。成長主要得益於穩健的營收成長、強勁的利潤率擴張和較低的平均流通股數。較高的利息支出和較高的稅率部分抵消了這種影響。全年調整後每股收益為 6.64 美元，成長 16.3%，反映出強勁的營運成長、較低的稅率和較低的流通股數量，但部分被較高的利息支出所抵銷。

From a cash flow perspective, on a reported basis, net cash from operating activities increased 1% to $255 million, while free cash flow increased 2% to $200 million, reflecting the timing of higher interest payments versus last year and certain onetime items in the prior year. On a full-year basis, free cash flow increased 11% to $920 million, a record for Verisk, demonstrating the strong cash flow generation characteristics of our subscription-based business model.

從現金流的角度來看，按報告數據，經營活動產生的現金淨額增長 1% 至 2.55 億美元，而自由現金流增長 2% 至 2 億美元，這反映了與去年相比更高的利息支付時間和上一年的某些一次性項目。全年來看，自由現金流成長了 11%，達到 9.2 億美元，創下 Verisk 的歷史新高，這表明我們基於訂閱的商業模式具有強大的現金流生成特性。

We are committed to returning capital to shareholders, and during the quarter, we returned $355 million through repurchases and dividends. 2024 marks the third year in a row that we have returned over $1 billion in capital to shareholders through dividends and repurchases. And I am pleased to share that our Board has approved a 15% increase to our dividend and an additional $1 billion in share repurchase authorization, demonstrating our confidence in our economic model and our commitment to return capital to shareholders.

我們致力於向股東返還資本，本季我們透過股票回購和分紅返還了3.55億美元。 2024年是我們連續第三年透過股利和股票回購向股東返還超過10億美元的資本。我很高興地宣布，董事會已批准將股息提高 15%，並額外授權 10 億美元股票回購，這表明我們對自身經濟模式充滿信心，並致力於向股東返還資本。

As Lee discussed, we are entering 2025 energized and with strong momentum. To that end, we are pleased to deliver our outlook for 2025, which builds upon the strong performance we delivered in 2024. Our guidance reflects the divestiture of AER, which contributed $17 million in revenue in 2024 and was included within our Underwriting subsegment. Our guidance also assumes current foreign currency exchange rates, current interest rates, and current tax rates.

正如李所說，我們充滿活力，勢頭強勁，即將邁入 2025 年。為此，我們很高興地發布 2025 年展望，該展望建立在我們 2024 年的強勁業績之上。我們的績效指引反映了 AER 的剝離，AER 在 2024 年貢獻了 1,700 萬美元的收入，並包含在我們的承保子業務板塊中。我們的指導意見也基於當前的外匯匯率、當前的利率和當前的稅率。

More specifically, we expect consolidated revenue for 2025 to be in the range of $3.03 billion to $3.08 billion. This translates to OCC revenue growth of 6% to 8%. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $1.67 billion to $1.72 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 55% to 55.8%, up from 54.7% in 2024.

更具體地說，我們預計 2025 年的合併收入將在 30.3 億美元至 30.8 億美元之間。這意味著 OCC 的收入成長了 6% 到 8%。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 16.7 億美元至 17.2 億美元之間，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將在 55% 至 55.8% 之間，高於 2024 年的 54.7%。

Further down the P&L, we expect depreciation and amortization of fixed assets to be in the range of $250 million to $270 million, subject to the timing and completion of projects. We expect amortization of intangibles to be approximately $65 million. We expect interest expense to be between $145 million to $165 million, as compared to $125 million in 2024, reflecting higher debt balances and higher interest rates. And we expect our tax rate to return to a normalized level in the 23% to 25% range, higher than the 22.6% recorded in 2024, which included some onetime tax benefits.

在損益表中，我們預計固定資產的折舊和攤提將在 2.5 億美元至 2.7 億美元之間，具體取決於專案的進度和完成情況。我們預計無形資產攤銷額約 6,500 萬美元。我們預計利息支出將在 1.45 億美元至 1.65 億美元之間，而 2024 年為 1.25 億美元，這反映出更高的債務餘額和更高的利率。我們預計稅率將恢復到 23% 至 25% 的正常水平，高於 2024 年記錄的 22.6%，其中包括一些一次性稅收優惠。

This culminates in adjusted earnings per share in the range of $6.80 to $7.10. We expect capital expenditures to be between $245 million and $265 million as we continue to prioritize organic investment in our business. A complete listing of all guidance measures can be found in the earnings slide deck, which has been posted to the Investors section of our website, verisk.com.

最終，調整後每股收益預計在 6.80 美元至 7.10 美元之間。我們預計資本支出將在 2.45 億美元至 2.65 億美元之間，我們將繼續優先考慮對業務的內生性投資。所有指導措施的完整清單可在收益簡報中找到，該簡報已發佈在我們網站 verisk.com 的投資者關係部分。

And now I will turn the call back over to Lee for some closing comments.

現在我將把電話轉回給李，請他做一些總結發言。

In summary, our strategic priorities are unchanged as we remain focused on delivering consistent and predictable growth while allocating capital to our highest return on investment opportunities and returning excess capital to shareholders. We have a unique opportunity to invest in data and technology at scale on behalf of the insurance industry and create value for our clients through invention at a lower cost of investment and ownership than an individual insurance company can on their own. We're excited by this opportunity and the team, culture, and organization we have in place to pursue it in 2025.

總而言之，我們的策略重點保持不變，我們將繼續專注於實現持續、可預測的成長，同時將資本分配給回報率最高的投資機會，並將多餘的資本回饋給股東。我們擁有獨特的機遇，可以代表保險業大規模投資數據和技術，並透過創新為客戶創造價值，而投資和擁有成本卻比單一保險公司自行投資和擁有的成本要低。我們對這個機會以及我們為在 2025 年實現這一目標而建立的團隊、文化和組織感到非常興奮。

We continue to appreciate the support and interest in Verisk. Given the large number of analysts we have covering us, we ask that you limit yourself to one question. And with that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

我們衷心感謝大家對 Verisk 的支持與關注。鑑於有大量分析師關注我們，我們要求您只提一個問題。接下來，我會請接線生開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

（操作說明）Toni Kaplan，摩根士丹利。

Wanted to ask a question on price realization. You mentioned it as one of the drivers for driving that really strong subscription growth rate of 11% this quarter. How much pushback are you getting from customers? I know in the past, there was the sensitivity around raising prices because you get the data from the insurers and didn't want to sort of rock the boat on that.

想問一下價格實現方面的問題。您提到這是推動本季訂閱用戶成長率高達 11% 的因素之一。你從客戶那裡得到了多少阻力？我知道過去提價這件事比較敏感，因為數據來自保險公司，所以我不想在這方面惹麻煩。

So are you taking more price than usual? And how are you expecting '25 to look in terms of the pace of the elevated pricing? Thank you.

所以你們的定價比平常高？你預計2025年物價上漲的速度會如何？謝謝。

Yeah. Hey, thanks, Toni. This is Lee. Let me -- I really appreciate the question, and I think it's been an important part of the momentum that we had in 2024 and what we're looking ahead to in 2025. And I think the point that I want to emphasize is that we have been more successful at driving value-driven price increases. And that has come about as a function of two things.

是的。嘿，謝謝你，托尼。這是李。讓我回答一下——我非常感謝這個問題，我認為這對我們在 2024 年取得的成就以及我們對 2025 年的展望都至關重要。我想強調的一點是，我們在推動以價值為導向的價格上漲方面取得了更大的成功。而這主要是由兩件事造成的。

One, I think focusing on delivering more value and then also communicating and orienting our sales efforts around that value orientation. Two very specific examples that I would point to, one that we've talked a lot about before, which is the Core Lines Reimagine investments that we've made, where our clients are telling us that they are now seeing substantial improvements in the value of the product that they're experiencing. We've also heard that from indirect channels, in fact, clients of ours that have communicated that this has been a significant improvement in their productivity. So that is clearly -- puts us in a position where we have been able to renew these contracts from a pricing standpoint where our clients feel as though they are getting demonstrably greater value from it.

第一，我認為應該專注於提供更多價值，然後圍繞著這種價值導向來溝通和調整我們的銷售工作。我想舉兩個非常具體的例子，其中一個我們之前已經多次討論過，那就是我們進行的核心產品線重塑投資，我們的客戶告訴我們，他們現在看到他們所體驗的產品的價值得到了顯著提升。事實上，我們也從一些間接管道了解到，我們的客戶回饋說，這顯著提高了他們的生產力。因此，很明顯，這使我們能夠從定價的角度續簽這些合同，讓我們的客戶覺得他們從中獲得了明顯更大的價值。

In addition, we also saw strength in our Extreme Events business where one of the evaluations that we did with an outside consultant around the sales standpoint is that there was a stronger perception of the value of our underlying models and other EES products. And so from a sales perspective, armed with that information, it put us in a position to be able to communicate and realize that pricing to a stronger extent.

此外，我們的極限運動業務也表現出強勁勢頭。我們與外部顧問就銷售情況進行的一項評估顯示，人們對我們基礎模型和其他 EES 產品的價值有了更深刻的認識。因此，從銷售的角度來看，掌握了這些訊息，我們就能更好地進行溝通並實現定價。

I also think in our Claims business, the efforts that we have made to open that ecosystem have created more value for our clients, and that has been helpful. So across the business, that value-driven pricing impact has been one of the key elements of the strength that we're seeing in subscription. And those aren't onetime effects. I think that that has been an overall structural and philosophical change in terms of how we approach pricing that we expect to continue to drive results for us in '25 and beyond.

我也認為，在我們的理賠業務中，我們為開放該生態系統所做的努力為我們的客戶創造了更多價值，這很有幫助。因此，在整個業務範圍內，這種以價值為導向的定價策略一直是訂閱業務強勁成長的關鍵因素之一。而這些影響並非一次性的。我認為，這在定價方式上是一個整體的結構性和理念​​上的轉變，我們預計這種轉變將在 2025 年及以後繼續為我們帶來業績。

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

馬納夫·帕特奈克，巴克萊銀行。

This is Brendan on for Manav. I just wanted to ask on the -- obviously, there was more benefit from the conversions to subscription. Just wanted to see, I guess, how to think about that for '25 and then just how to think about maybe longer term the runway there?

這裡是 Brendan 為 Manav 報道。我只是想問一下——顯然，轉換為訂閱用戶會帶來更多好處。我只是想了解一下，對於 2025 年的情況，以及從長遠來看，跑道的情況，應該如何考慮？

Yeah, Brendan, good morning, and thanks for the question. So let me break it into two pieces. We talked about one specific contract conversion. We quantified that in the third quarter and it's about the same impact in the fourth quarter. That will persist through the middle of the second quarter. So kind of the next -- the last full impact would be in the first quarter of next year.

是的，布倫丹，早安，謝謝你的提問。那我就把它分成兩個部分來說吧。我們討論了一個具體的合約轉換案例。我們在第三季對此進行了量化，第四季的影響也大致相同。這種情況將持續到第二季​​中期。所以，接下來——最後一次全面影響將在明年第一季到來。

But more generally, we've talked about the success in our business of converting transactional revenue or creating license packages and creating subscription packages. That's certainly been an impact that we've talked about in our Anti-Fraud business and one that we've seen elsewhere across the business.

但更普遍地說，我們已經討論過我們在業務中成功轉化交易收入或創建許可包和創建訂閱包的情況。這無疑是我們在反詐騙業務中討論過的影響，也是我們在整個業務的其他領域中看到的影響。

Specifically, in the Anti-Fraud, we targeted a specific customer set with the third-party adjusters and self-insured. And that specific impact will also continue really through the first half of next year. But more generally across the business, as customers see the value as Lee talked about, and commit to longer-term contracts, that may be a sustained tailwind on the subscription side.

具體來說，在反詐騙方面，我們針對的是第三方理賠員和自保的特定客戶群。而這種具體影響還會持續到明年上半年。但更普遍地來說，隨著客戶像李所說的那樣看到價值，並簽訂更長期的合同，這可能會對訂閱業務產生持續的推動作用。

George Tong, Goldman Sachs.

喬治唐，高盛集團。

Transaction revenue in the quarter benefited from elevated storm activity. Can you talk about how much of a benefit you saw from storms in the quarter and how much of a benefit you expect in 2025?

本季交易收入受惠於風暴活動的增加。您能否談談本季風暴為您帶來的收益，以及您預計 2025 年能帶來的收益？

Yeah, good morning, George. Thanks for the question. On the transactional side and on the impact of the storms, we've previously said that we have a threshold to quantify the exact storms amount of when they are at least 1 percentage point impact to revenue growth.

早上好，喬治。謝謝你的提問。在交易方面以及風暴的影響方面，我們之前說過，我們有一個閾值來量化風暴的確切影響程度，即當風暴對收入成長的影響至少達到 1 個百分點時。

As you heard in my prepared remarks, it did not hit that threshold. But I will say the revenue impact in this fourth quarter was approximately the same as it had been with Hurricane Ian in the fourth quarter of 2022. But the fact of the business is -- the fact of the matter is the rest of our business has grown that that no longer hits that impact double.

正如你們在我事先準備好的發言稿中聽到的那樣，它並沒有達到那個門檻。但我要說的是，今年第四季的營收影響與 2022 年第四季颶風伊恩的影響大致相同。但實際情況是——事實上，我們其他業務的成長已經使得這種影響不再是雙倍的。

As for expectations into 2025, these storms themselves, Helene and Milton, happened quite early -- actually late in the third quarter and very early in the fourth quarter. So we don't expect them to -- those storms themselves to have much impact for 2025. As for prospectively, as you know, we don't forecast, but we assume sort of a normalized level of storm activity.

至於對 2025 年的預期，海倫和米爾頓這兩場風暴本身發生得相當早——實際上發生在第三季末和第四季初。因此，我們預計這些風暴本身不會對 2025 年產生太大影響。至於未來，正如您所知，我們不做預測，但我們假設風暴活動處於某種正常水平。

Surinder Thind, Jefferies.

蘇林德‧辛德，傑富瑞。

Can you maybe provide some thoughts around just the state of insurance in the sense of what's going on in California and kind of the shift towards the state being the insurer of choice? How does that impact the business from a revenue perspective versus also the insurance companies being or active in the state versus not being active in the state?

您能否就保險業現狀，特別是加州的情況，以及州政府逐漸成為首選保險公司的趨勢，談談您的看法？從收入角度來看，這會對業務產生什麼影響？同時，保險公司是否在該州開展業務也會對業務產生什麼影響？

Surinder, thanks a lot for the question. It's obviously a very timely question. So I think, certainly, the most immediate impact, of course, are the losses that the industry are bearing from the LA wildfires. And we're clearly seeing that in the financial results that they are -- that the carriers are reporting.

蘇林德，非常感謝你的提問。這顯然是一個非常及時的問題。所以我認為，當然，最直接的影響是洛杉磯山火對該行業造成的損失。我們從各業者公佈的財務表現中可以清楚地看到這一點。

I think the consequences of that is it certainly points to the need for -- or the heightened risk and the need for increased pricing within that market. And one of the challenges has been that up until recently, California did not allow forward-looking models as a basis for pricing. And they have since adjusted that. As I mentioned in the remarks earlier, we were very proud to be the first to submit our wildfire model as a basis for pricing.

我認為其後果是，這無疑表明該市場存在更高的風險，因此需要提高價格。其中一個挑戰是，直到最近，加州才允許將前瞻性模型作為定價基礎。他們後來對此進行了調整。正如我之前在演講中提到的，我們非常自豪能夠成為第一個提交野火模型作為定價依據的公司。

So I think we are headed towards a recognition that the risk environment has changed. That should provide stability in pricing and a path to greater rate adequacy. But the carriers themselves have to evaluate whether they're getting adequate pricing to compensate themselves for the risk. And we'll see -- we think that we will see that play out over the course of 2025. But there naturally is a strong incentive to continue to serve the California market because of its scale, provided that there is a good rationale for acceptable and risk-based pricing there.

所以我認為我們正逐漸認識到風險環境已經改變了。這將有助於穩定價格，並為提高利率合理性鋪平道路。但航空公司本身必須評估他們所獲得的定價是否足以彌補自身承擔的風險。我們將拭目以待——我們認為在 2025 年期間，我們將看到這種情況發生。但鑑於加州市場的規模，自然有強大的動力繼續服務加州市場，前提是加州市場能夠提供合理且基於風險的定價。

And I do think that these risks that we are experiencing within California also heightens the general importance of catastrophic risk modeling and greater analytics in understanding and pinpointing where higher levels of risks are within our real estate markets in the US and certainly globally, and we see continued strong demand for the expertise that we deliver to our clients.

而且我認為，我們在加州遇到的這些風險也凸顯了災難性風險建模和更深入的分析對於了解和確定美國乃至全球房地產市場中較高風險的重要性，我們看到客戶對我們提供的專業知識的需求持續強勁。

Kelsey Zhu, Autonomous Research.

Kelsey Zhu，自主研究。

So 20% to 25% of your revenues come from contracts that have a direct input of premium growth with a two-year lag. And 2023 was a pretty strong year for premium growth, but we're also in the third year of elevated premium growth in 2025. So just curious to think about how should we think about pricing contribution to growth in 2025 compared to, I think, historical levels was more closer to 3% to 4%. And if you could quantify pricing contribution to overall growth in 2024, that would be really helpful.

因此，您 20% 到 25% 的收入來自保費成長直接投入但存在兩年滯後的合約。2023 年保費成長相當強勁，但 2025 年也是保費持續成長的第三年。所以，我很好奇，與歷史水準相比，我們應該如何看待 2025 年價格對成長的貢獻，我認為歷史水準更接近 3% 到 4%。如果您能量化價格對 2024 年整體成長的貢獻，那就非常有幫助了。

Yeah, good morning, Kelsey. Thanks for that. So yeah, we've previously said that 20% to 25% of our revenue comes from contracts with that input from premium growth. And we continue to experience that. I will say, more importantly for us, we've been using that as an input, but the ultimate outcome of our pricing conversations come from our clients' perception of the value that we're providing.

早安，凱爾西。謝謝。是的，我們之前說過，我們 20% 到 25% 的收入來自合同，而這些收入又來自保費增長。我們仍在經歷這種情況。更重要的是，我們一直將此作為參考，但我們定價談判的最終結果取決於客戶對我們所提供價值的看法。

And so I think Lee talked at the beginning about some of the trends and the value that we've been able to deliver to clients. So all of those things are true. Yes, we see the strong pricing input and we do see that continuing off of the 2023 numbers. But the more important conversation for us longer term with our clients is the value.

所以我覺得李在開頭談到了一些趨勢以及我們能夠為客戶帶來的價值。所以，這些說法都是真的。是的，我們看到了強勁的價格趨勢，我們認為這種趨勢會延續到 2023 年。但從長遠來看，我們與客戶之間更重要的對話是價值。

Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

Faiza Alwy，德意志銀行。

So I wanted to follow up on transaction revenues. So you had some difficult comps. I'm curious how we should think about that as we look ahead to 2025. And I know, Elizabeth, you mentioned the storm impact and quantified that amount for us. But curious if all of that was in transaction versus subscription because I know you talked about converting some of those contracts to subscription revenue.

因此，我想跟進一下交易收入的情況。所以你遇到了一些比較難的比賽。我很想知道，展望2025年，我們該如何看待這個問題。我知道，伊莉莎白，你提到了風暴的影響，並為我們量化了影響程度。但我很好奇這些收入是否都是按交易額計算的，而不是按訂閱額計算的，因為我知道你曾說過要將其中一些合約轉換為訂閱收入。

Yeah. Thanks for the question. On that storms, it is primarily transactional. There may be a small piece of it related to subscription from contractors, but really think of it as primarily transactional.

是的。謝謝你的提問。在這些風暴中，主要以交易為主。其中可能有一小部分與承包商的訂閱有關，但實際上主要還是以交易為主。

As we think about going ahead into 2025, you're right, there are some tough comps on the transactional side. We talked about the contract conversion from one discrete conversion, and as I said, that last through the first quarter, as well as the tail of those Anti-Fraud conversions.

展望 2025 年，您說得對，交易方面確實存在一些難以比較的情況。我們討論了合約轉換，從一次獨立的轉換開始，正如我所說，這持續到第一季度，以及反詐騙轉換的尾聲。

I would also add in 2025 to think about auto -- yeah, auto -- the auto activity has a tough comp, particularly in Q1. The transactional activity was still quite high in the first quarter. And we've referenced on the auto side, the InsurTech segment and some weakness there, which will probably consist -- continue into the year.

我還想補充一點，2025 年要考慮汽車產業——是的，汽車產業——汽車產業的業績比較基數很高，尤其是在第一季。第一季的交易活動依然相當活躍。我們已經提到了汽車產業、保險科技領域以及該領域的一些疲軟之處，這些疲軟可能會持續到今年年底。

As you think about transactional revenue, you should also -- we mentioned the sale of AER. That was primarily a transactional business. So from a nominal standpoint, that would be coming out. Though, of course, from an OCC standpoint, which is how we typically measure ourselves, that will not be as important.

在考慮交易收入時，您還應該——我們提到了 AER 的出售。那主要是一家交易型企業。所以從名義上講，那將會出來。當然，從 OCC 的角度來看（這也是我們通常衡量自身表現的方式），這一點就沒那麼重要了。

And then on the seasonality standpoint, on the seasonality standpoint, typically in the first quarter is one with less drivers for transactional growth with weather activity being lower on the Property Estimating Solutions side. The ILS market is typically less active in the first quarter. So I hope those are some of the puts and takes that help you think about 2025.

從季節性角度來看，通常第一季是交易成長的驅動因素較少的季度，因為天氣因素對房地產估價解決方案的影響較小。ILS市場在第一季通常較不活躍。所以，我希望這些想法和見解能幫助你思考2025年。

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

Andrew Steinerman，摩根大通。

Hi, Elizabeth, just a few really counting punch questions about the guide. One, is there any share buyback in the guide? Two, the interest expense looks materially stepped up to me. Like, are you making an assumption about the planned refi in that interest assumption? And then three, the D&A also looks stepped up to me relative to last year relative to '24. What's driving the D&A step-up in '25?

嗨，伊莉莎白，關於這份指南，我還有幾個非常關鍵的問題。第一，該指南中是否包含股票回購計畫？第二，在我看來，利息支出似乎大幅增加。例如，你在利息假設中是否對計畫中的再融資做出了假設？第三，在我看來，與去年相比，與 2024 年相比，D&A 也有所提升。2025 年 D&A 成長的驅動因素是什麼？

Yeah, Andrew, hi. Thanks for those questions. Taking them in order. Yes, we highlighted some of the below-the-line items there because there are headwinds there. On the share buyback, yes, we do assume share buyback activity in 2025.

是的，安德魯，你好。謝謝您提出這些問題。按順序來。是的，我們重點介紹了一些線下項目，因為這些項目面臨一些不利因素。關於股票回購，是的，我們預計 2025 年會有股票回購活動。

The interest expense, historically, that's not one we've called out, but we thought it was important for you to understand the dynamics there. If you look at our fourth-quarter interest run rate, as I mentioned in the call, that was $35 million. So if you just annualize that fourth quarter, that already shows the impact of the -- our 2024 refinancing, and that gets you almost to the level in the guidance without even assuming any refinancing. So that's -- those are some of the headwinds there that we face as with others in a rising rate environment.

從歷史上看，我們並沒有特別提及利息支出，但我們認為讓您了解其中的動態很重要。如我在電話會議中提到的，如果我們看一下我們第四季的利息支出，那就是 3500 萬美元。所以，如果你把第四季的業績年化，就已經顯示出我們 2024 年再融資的影響，即使不考慮任何再融資，也能達到預期水準。所以，這就是我們在利率上升的環境下，與其他企業一樣面臨的一些不利因素。

And then finally, on the D&A, that is a consequence of the investment that we've had in our projects and the CapEx that we've invested. As we put projects into service and as they support the revenue growth that comes in that, that's the D&A that's the consequence.

最後，關於折​​舊和攤銷，這是我們對專案進行投資和投入資本支出的結果。隨著專案投入使用，以及專案帶來的收入成長，這就是折舊和攤提的後果。

Alex Kramm, UBS.

Alex Kramm，瑞銀集團。

Just staying on the guidance for a second, but particularly on the revenue side. I mean, obviously, there's a range and the 6% to 8% is consistent with previous ranges. So just curious if you can maybe bracket a little bit the kind of low end and the high end. Is it all transactional volatility, which you talked about earlier? Or are there other factors that you're really focused on that can you get -- that will get you to the low end to the high end? And obviously, how much of that subscription growth is already kind of in the books today?

再簡單談談業績指引，特別是營收方面。我的意思是，很明顯，這是一個範圍，6%到8%的範圍與之前的範圍一致。所以我只是好奇，您能否稍微概括一下低端和高端的範圍？是不是你之前提到的那些交易波動？或者，你真正關注的其他因素是什麼？這些因素能否讓你從低端達到高端？顯然，這些訂閱成長中有多少已經基本確定下來了？

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Alex. You're right, transactional volumes is one component of the swing factors. On the other side, on the low end, we always monitor attrition and potential attrition on the customer side; including potentially if there's customers that temporarily pull back in California, that could potentially have a short-term attrition impact.

是的。謝謝你的提問，Alex。你說得對，交易量是影響市場波動的因素之一。另一方面，在低端，我們始終監控客戶方面的流失和潛在流失；包括加州客戶暫時撤回訂單的情況，這可能會對短期流失率產生影響。

On the high end, we've talked a lot about some of the new products that we've been investing in, and we're excited about those rolling out in 2025. If there's a greater or faster traction than we've assumed, then you could see upside there. Any of the products we've talked about, from XactXpert in the Property Estimating Solutions side. We've talked about Discovery and Liability Navigator, the Whitespace product in Specialty Business Solutions, the Augmented Underwriting. So there's some opportunity there on the high end.

在高端領域，我們已經多次談到我們一直在投資的一些新產品，我們對這些產品在 2025 年推出感到非常興奮。如果實際效果比我們預想的更好或更快，那麼就有可能帶來上漲空間。我們討論過的所有產品，包括房地產估價解決方案方面的 XactXpert 產品。我們已經討論過 Discovery 和 Liability Navigator、Specialty Business Solutions 中的 Whitespace 產品以及 Augmented Underwriting。所以高端市場還是有一些機會的。

And then finally, maybe just to be a bit more specific, we talked about transactional as a swing factor. But just to enumerate those, we talked on the auto side about the comps there. Weather and ILS can be a driver of variability on the transactional side. And then I'd also mention on the Life businesses, our services support for our customers there can be a transactional variability.

最後，為了更具體地說明，我們討論了交易作為搖擺因素的作用。但為了列舉這些，我們在汽車方面討論了那裡的競爭對手。天氣和ILS系統可能會對交易方面產生影響。此外，關於人壽保險業務，我們為客戶提供的服務支援可能會出現交易差異。

And Alex, thanks for the question. I think there are always these broader factors that can influence our business despite us having, I think, very good predictability as we've demonstrated and kind of really tight variance around expectations. But we've talked about the weather events, which can influence things on the margin for us.

亞歷克斯，謝謝你的提問。我認為，儘管我們已經展現出非常好的可預測性，而且預期波動範圍也相當小，但總有一些更廣泛的因素會影響我們的業務。但我們已經討論過天氣事件，這可能會對我們產生一些影響。

The other thing that we're watching right now is, of course, there is a lot of activity on the government and the regulatory front. As we are sorting out the new administration's elements, we don't see anything immediately that we would identify, but of course, there's a lot that is in flux on that.

當然，我們現在關注的另一件事是，政府和監管方面也有很多活動。在梳理新政府的組成人員時，我們目前還沒有發現任何可以立即識別出來的東西，但當然，這方面有很多事情都在變化之中。

And then, of course, more broadly, the economic environment and interest rates and FX are factors that will influence us over the course of the year. But despite those -- the vagaries of those broader exposures, I still think beneath that, we have a business that has strong momentum, well positioned to take advantage of the opportunity over the next several years. But thanks for the question to kind of feel out some of the elements of variability here.

當然，更廣泛地說，經濟環境、利率和匯率等因素也會在今年對我們產生影響。但儘管有這些——這些更廣泛的風險敞口帶來的不確定性，我仍然認為，在這些因素之下，我們的業務發展勢頭強勁，已經做好充分準備，在未來幾年抓住機會。不過，感謝你提出這個問題，讓我有機會了解這裡的一些可變因素。

Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

Ashish Sabadra，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

I just wanted to focus on the M&A. Wanted to see if there is more opportunities for portfolio rationalization, but also how is the pipeline for M&A and thoughts on M&A? Thanks.

我只想專注於併購部分。想了解投資組合合理化方面是否還有更多機會，另外，併購通路情況如何？您對併購有什麼看法？謝謝。

Thanks, Ashish. I'd say the pipeline for opportunity remains relatively unchanged. We have been actively engaged in looking at opportunities, and values remain high. I think one additional dimension that I would mention is that as we have opened our ecosystem in a variety of areas, our ability to understand how new businesses are adding value to the industry potentially create opportunities for us to have a better knowledge and understanding of how those businesses might fit within our broader business. And I think that as we are thinking more -- on a more integrated across the -- on a more integrated basis across our business, I think we are finding opportunities for us to expand and enhance some of the value propositions that we're delivering to clients.

謝謝你，阿什什。我認為機會管道基本上保持不變。我們一直在積極尋找機會，並且始終保持高價值觀。我認為需要補充一點的是，隨著我們在各個領域開放我們的生態系統，我們了解新企業如何為行業增加價值的能力，可能會為我們創造機會，讓我們更好地了解和理解這些企業如何融入我們更廣泛的業務。我認為，隨著我們在整個業務中更加一體化地思考，我們將會發現機會，從而擴展和增強我們為客戶提供的一些價值主張。

So the environment, I think, remains unchanged. There continue to be interesting companies that are adding value to the industry. And I think our own knowledge of how we could potentially enhance or improve that value and delivering it to clients is improving.

所以我認為，環境依然沒有改變。仍然有很多優秀的公司在為產業創造價值。而且我認為，我們自身對於如何潛在地提升或改進這種價值以及如何將其交付給客戶的認識也在不斷提高。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Lee, you had mentioned that you rolled out 13 modules across Core Lines Reimagine in 2024 and how that's driving better price realization. You had also said that your increase -- or you're introducing a greater number of modules in 2025. Do you think that that can drive an uptick in price realizations in 2025 versus 2024?

Lee，你曾提到你在 2024 年推出了 13 個核心產品線重塑模組，以及這如何推動了更好的價格實現。您還說過，您將在 2025 年增加——或者說，您將引入更多模組。你認為這會導致 2025 年的價格實現價值比 2024 年有所上漲嗎？

So David, thanks for the question. I think the short answer is we believe that each incremental module that we're adding is adding value to our clients, and so becomes an opportunity for us to capture some of that value that we're delivering. But I'm going to hand it over to my colleague, Saurabh Khemka, to describe some of the modules that I think our clients will be excited about in '25 that we're rolling out.

大衛，謝謝你的提問。我認為簡而言之，我們相信我們添加的每個增量模組都在為我們的客戶增加價值，因此也為我們提供了一個獲取我們所交付的價值的機會。但我將把發言權交給我的同事 Saurabh Khemka，讓他來介紹一些我認為我們的客戶會在 2025 年對我們推出的模組感到興奮的內容。

Yeah. Thanks, Lee. As you mentioned, we are delivering these modules across two dimensions. One is providing enhanced insights to our customers from our proprietary databases. So things like our Executive Insights where we're going to be adding another module, the Commercial Auto Module, and our ISO Experience Index, which we're going to be rolling out across all commercial lines in 2025, are things we know that customers are going to be excited about and will provide more value to that.

是的。謝謝你，李。正如您所提到的，我們透過兩個維度來交付這些模組。其一是利用我們專有的資料庫，為客戶提供更深入的洞察。因此，像我們的「高階主管洞察」功能（我們將新增一個模組——商用汽車模組）以及我們的「ISO體驗指數」（我們將在2025年將其推廣到所有商用產品線）這樣的功能，我們知道客戶會對此感到興奮，而這些功能將為他們帶來更多價值。

And the second dimension is the digital delivery of our content, which increases the productivity of our customers as they look at these analytics from us. And there, Future of Forms initiative as well as our Ratings Reimagine initiatives will have new modules coming out.

第二個維度是我們內容的數位化交付，這提高了客戶的工作效率，因為他們可以查看我們提供的這些分析數據。此外，未來表單計畫以及我們的評級重塑計畫也將推出新的模組。

David, I'll just jump in because -- to address -- your question was about kind of the price realization on that. And so I'll add that for many of our large customers, they are on multiyear contracts. And so the pricing benefit from these new modules that we're introducing is more of a gradual and sustained opportunity, not kind of a onetime uptick.

大衛，我插一句，因為──為了回答──你的問題是關於那件事的價格實現。因此，我還要補充一點，我們很多大客戶都簽了多年合約。因此，我們推出的這些新模組帶來的價格優勢更像是一個漸進且持續的機會，而不是一次性的上漲。

Jeff Meuler, Baird.

Jeff Meuler，Baird。

I get that there's been a little bit of help, especially in the back half, from the transaction to subscription conversions. But subscription organic constant currency growth accelerated every quarter of 2024. You're talking about record bookings, the innovation and revenue initiatives, good momentum. That feels like a really good launching off point for '25 exiting at 11% OCC.

我明白，尤其是在後半段，從交易到訂閱的轉換方面，確實得到了一些幫助。但2024年每季訂閱用戶以固定匯率計算的自然成長都在加速。您談到了創紀錄的預訂量、創新和收入舉措，以及良好的發展勢頭。感覺這對 2025 年來說是一個非常好的起步點，最終收益率達到 11% OCC。

I know you discussed some headwinds, but it doesn't totally add up to me. So just anything else you can say that would kind of like offset an exit rate of 11%? And is there any like shift in on when pricing or value is kind of realized for you from like the beginning of the calendar year to midyear that's been happening or anything like that? Thank you.

我知道你們討論了一些不利因素，但這在我看來並不完全合理。那麼，您還有什麼其他說法可以抵銷11%的退出率嗎？從年初到年中，您在定價或價值認知方面是否有任何變化或類似情況？謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Jeff. I mean, we are excited about the subscription strength. It's across our businesses. To the fourth quarter, and specifically, we -- yes, we had a couple of technical helps. We talked about the contract conversion. I think last quarter, we said that was about a 60 basis point help to subscription, as well as the ongoing conversion across our portfolio. And then just for the fourth quarter, there was a slightly easier comp over the year prior. So those were just some of the factors.

是的。謝謝你的提問，傑夫。我的意思是，我們對訂閱用戶數量之多感到非常興奮。這種情況在我們所有業務部門都存在。到了第四季度，具體來說，我們——是的，我們得到了一些技術支援。我們討論了合約轉換事宜。我認為上個季度我們說過，這大約對訂閱量有所幫助 60 個基點，以及我們產品組合中持續的轉換。而且，第四季的情況比去年同期略好。以上只是部分因素。

But all that said, the dynamics that we see, we are excited about the pricing realization, the value recognition from our clients, and the outcomes that we've had.

但總而言之，我們看到的動態是，我們對定價的實現、客戶對價值的認可以及我們所取得的成果感到興奮。

Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

安德魯·尼古拉斯，威廉·布萊爾。

I wanted to touch on the extended duration of contract renewals, which I think, Lee and Elizabeth, you both mentioned today. Can you maybe describe a little bit more about what is enabling that? If there's any way to maybe quantify the change in average length. And what benefits that creates, whether it be in terms of deal economics or predictability or how you manage those relationships? Thank you.

我想談談合約續約期限延長的問題，我想李和伊莉莎白，你們今天都提到了這一點。您能否更詳細地描述一下是什麼促成了這種情況？如果有什麼方法可以量化平均長度的變化的話。這樣做會帶來哪些好處，無論是在交易經濟效益、可預測性，還是在管理這些關係方面？謝謝。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Andrew. It is a maybe gradual impact, not -- the extension of contract length is one that hasn't been a material change for our business, maybe a gradual change as our largest customers are looking for certainty in future price outcomes. And some of our businesses have had success in locking in longer-term contracts. But it's an evolution in our business, not a drastic change.

是的。謝謝你的提問，安德魯。這可能是一種漸進的影響，而不是——延長合約期限對我們的業務來說並沒有帶來實質性的變化，這可能是一種漸進的變化，因為我們最大的客戶正在尋求未來價格結果的確定性。我們的一些企業已經成功簽訂了長期合約。但這只是我們業務的演變，而不是劇烈的改變。

Yeah. And I would add to that, David. I think that it demonstrates at one level, to move to that longer contract, there certainly is an economic incentive on the part of the client from our standpoint to greater predictability. Obviously, there is growth embedded in those contracts. But I think it's also a reflection of a greater degree of confidence and a stronger strategic relationship that if that weren't in place or that weren't developing, then I think you would see more of our clients wanting to kind of keep those contracts at the shorter end, maintain optionality and flexibility around it.

是的。我還要補充一點，大衛。我認為這在某種程度上表明，從我們的角度來看，客戶為了獲得更高的可預測性，確實存在經濟上的激勵，促使他們簽訂更長的合約。顯然，這些合約中蘊含著成長潛力。但我認為這也反映出我們之間更大的信心和更強的策略關係。如果這種信心和策略關係沒有建立或發展起來，那麼我認為你會看到更多客戶希望將合約期限縮短，以保持選擇權和靈活性。

So I view it more broadly as a barometer of our ability to become even more deeply embedded and a comfort that we're adding value and that we're a partner to them and it gives us other areas to focus on in making those clients more efficient and more effective.

因此，我更廣泛地將其視為衡量我們能否更深入地融入其中的晴雨表，也讓我們感到欣慰，因為我們正在為他們創造價值，我們是他們的合作夥伴，這讓我們有其他領域可以關注，從而使這些客戶更加高效和有效。

Jason Haas, Wells Fargo.

傑森‧哈斯，富國銀行。

I'm curious if you could talk about how your marketing business performed in the fourth quarter and what's your expectation for that business in 2025. Because we've seen some pretty good advertising and marketing spending from the insurance industry. Thanks.

我想請您談談貴公司行銷業務在第四季度的表現，以及您對該業務在 2025 年的預期。因為我們看到保險業在廣告和行銷方面投入了相當可觀的資金。謝謝。

Yeah, Jason, thanks for the question. On the marketing business, the insurance customer segment has seen strong growth, and we see tailwinds on that going into next year. The rest of the customer base still has been more muted based on the advertising and marketing segment overall. And so we're watching that business as it develops into next year.

是的，傑森，謝謝你的提問。在行銷方面，保險客戶群實現了強勁成長，我們預計明年這一趨勢仍將持續。其餘客戶群對廣告和行銷的整體反應仍較為低調。因此，我們將密切關注該業務在明年的發展。

Russell Quelch, Redburn Atlantic.

Russell Quelch，Redburn Atlantic。

I wanted to talk about CapEx. I noted the CapEx came in quite far below the prior guidance range in '24. I think it was about 10% below the range what you were guiding for. I'm trying to square that with your comments, you've been investing more in the business. Wondering if maybe you delayed some capitalization of some projects in 2025, especially given your guiding CapEx up 15% year on year to '25. Also, more broadly, are there any comments you want to provide on free cash flow growth expectations in 2025?

我想談談資本支出。我注意到 2024 年的資本支出遠低於先前的預期範圍。我認為它比你預期的範圍低了大約 10%。我試著將這一點與你的評論聯繫起來，因為你一直在加大對公司的投資。我想知道您是否推遲了 2025 年某些項目的資本投入，特別是考慮到您預計 2025 年資本支出將同比增長 15%。此外，更廣泛地說，您對 2025 年的自由現金流成長預期有什麼看法？

Thanks for the question, Russell. On the 2024 number, there wasn't any major decision or forceful delay of projects there. We're just -- we're always going to be mindful of expenses. And if we don't spend it, we'll be cautious.

謝謝你的提問，羅素。關於 2024 年的數據，並沒有做出任何重大決定，也沒有強制延後任何專案。我們只是──我們會一直注意控制開支。如果我們不花掉這筆錢，我們會謹慎行事。

But yeah, I think there are some timing factors that just pushed some things into '25. There's also quite a bit of investment that's taking place also in our OpEx space as well. So those two things give what we think is a healthy amount of organic investment into the business.

但是，我認為有一些時間因素導致一些事情推遲到了 2025 年。我們在營運支出領域也進行了大量投資。因此，我們認為這兩件事為企業帶來了相當可觀的自然投資。

On the free cash flow growth, we don't forecast that, but we were very happy to have double-digit free cash flow growth in the full year this year. And I think a measure of our confidence in the free cash flow growth into next year is the dividend increase that we've communicated.

對於自由現金流成長，我們沒有做出預測，但我們很高興今年全年自由現金流實現了兩位數的成長。我認為，我們已經宣布提高股息，這反映了我們對明年自由現金流成長的信心。

Jeff Silber, BMO Capital Markets.

Jeff Silber，BMO資本市場。

Actually, a couple of quick numbers questions. I know it's difficult to quantify some of the, I guess, extreme events. But the California wildfires did happen earlier in the quarter. Is it possible to give us some estimate of what the impact of that might be on your business?

實際上，還有幾個簡單的數字題。我知道有些極端事件很難量化。但加州山火確實發生在本季早些時候。能否估算一下這可能會對貴公司造成什麼影響？

And secondly, Lee, I think you had alluded to some of the stuff going on in Washington. Can you talk about your exposure either directly or indirectly to federal government-related revenues? Thanks.

其次，李，我想你之前也提到華盛頓正在發生的一些事情。您能否談談您直接或間接接觸聯邦政府相關收入的情況？謝謝。

Thanks, Jeff. On the California wildfire side, as we talked about, it definitely has an industry impact, and it's something that everybody is watching. But from a -- just from a [breath] tax numerical impact to us, that will be kind of part of the -- that will be hard to quantify.

謝謝你，傑夫。正如我們之前討論的，加州野火肯定會對行業產生影響，這是每個人都在關注的事情。但就呼吸稅的數值影響而言，這對我們來說是難以量化的一部分。

Just for the avoidance of doubt, I want to clarify that while hurricanes can have an impact on our Property Estimating Solutions business as we provide support to the repair, while we do provide that support in the wildfire situations, but they are far less -- they are far more geographically concentrated. So it does not have the financial impact on our business, typically.

為了避免誤解，我想澄清一下，雖然颶風會對我們的財產估價解決方案業務產生影響，因為我們會為維修提供支持，雖然我們也為野火情況提供支持，但影響要小得多——而且野火的地理分佈要集中得多。所以，通常情況下，它不會對我們的業務造成財務影響。

I'll turn it to Lee.

我把它交給李。

Great. And Jeff, yes, I think it's a natural question to ask. So revenues from -- revenues with the federal government are less than 1% of our total revenues. Like everyone else, we've been monitoring the changes coming out of Washington closely. And at this point, we don't believe that we have any direct exposure to tariffs or the trade executive orders.

偉大的。傑夫，是的，我覺得這是一個很自然的問題。因此，來自聯邦政府的收入不到我們總收入的 1%。和所有人一樣，我們一直在密切關注華盛頓方面發生的變化。目前，我們認為我們不會直接受到關稅或貿易行政命令的影響。

As you probably appreciate, our work with state and federal government agencies work to save the industry by offering efficiency and automation and risk management, which we think is still fundamentally interest -- in the interest, not only of the industry, but ultimately, policyholders. And of course, with insurance being a primarily state-based regulatory infrastructure, the involvement of the federal government on the overall insurance regulatory regime is relatively light.

您可能已經意識到，我們與州和聯邦政府機構的合作旨在透過提高效率、實現自動化和風險管理來拯救該行業，我們認為這仍然具有根本意義——不僅符合行業的利益，而且最終也符合保單持有人的利益。當然，由於保險業主要是以州為基礎的監管體系，聯邦政府對整個保險監理體系的參與相對較小。

Thank you, everyone. There are no questions in the queue. This concludes today's call. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day, everyone.

謝謝大家。目前隊列中沒有問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。現在你們都可以斷開連結了。祝大家今天愉快。