Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Verisk Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) For opening remarks and introductions, I would now like to turn the call over to Verisk's Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Stacey Brodbar. Ms. Brodbar, please go ahead.

各位好，歡迎參加Verisk 2023年第四季及全年財報電話會議。本次電話會議正在錄音。 （操作說明）現在，我將把電話交給Verisk投資者關係主管Stacey Brodbar女士，請她致開幕詞並進行介紹。 Brodbar女士，請開始。

Thank you, operator, and good day, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for a discussion of our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results. On the call today are Lee Shavel, Verisk's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Elizabeth Mann, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家好。感謝各位今天參加我們關於2023年第四季及全年財務表現的討論會。今天出席電話會議的有Verisk總裁兼執行長Lee Shavel和財務長Elizabeth Mann。

The earnings release referenced on this call as well as our traditional quarterly earnings presentation and the associated 10-K can be found in the Investors section of our website, verisk.com. The earnings release has also been attached to an 8-K that we have furnished to the SEC. A replay of this call will be available for 30 days on our website and by dial-in.

本次電話會議中提及的獲利報告、我們傳統的季度獲利簡報以及相關的10-K表格，均可在公司網站verisk.com的「投資者關係」欄位中找到。該盈利報告也已附在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的8-K表格中。本次電話會議的錄音回放將在公司網站和電話接入平台上保留30天。

As set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, I will remind everyone today's call may include forward-looking statements about Verisk's future performance, including those related to our financial guidance. Actual performance could differ materially from what is suggested by our comments today. Information about the factors that could affect future performance is contained in our recent SEC filings.

正如今天發布的財報中更詳細的闡述，我在此提醒各位，今天的電話會議可能包含有關Verisk未來業績的前瞻性陳述，包括與我們的財務指引相關的陳述。實際業績可能與我們今天所作的陳述有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的因素的信息，請參閱我們近期提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件。

Finally, I'd also like to remind everyone that the financial results for recent dispositions are included in our consolidated and GAAP results but are excluded from all organic constant currency growth figures. A reconciliation of reported and historic non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call is provided in our 8-K and today's earnings presentation posted on the Investors section of our website, verisk.com. However, we are not able to provide a reconciliation of projected adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin to the most directly comparable expected GAAP results because of the unreasonable effort and high unpredictability of estimating certain items that are excluded from projected non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin, including, for example, tax consequences, acquisition-related costs, gains and losses from dispositions and other nonrecurring expenses, the effect of which may be significant.

最後，我還想提醒大家，近期資產處置的財務結果已計入我們的合併財務報表和GAAP財務報表，但未計入所有以固定匯率計算的有機增長數據。本次電話會議討論的已報告和歷史非GAAP財務指標的調節表已在我們的8-K表格和今天發佈於公司網站verisk.com投資者關係欄目的盈利演示文稿中提供。然而，由於估算某些已從預期非GAAP調整後EBITDA和調整後EBITDA利潤率中排除的項目（例如，稅務影響、收購相關成本、資產處置損益和其他非經常性支出）難度極大且不確定性高，我們無法提供預計調整後EBITDA和調整後EBITDA利潤率與最直接可比的預期GAAP結果的調節表。這些項目的影響可能相當顯著。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Lee Shavel.

現在我想把電話交給李沙維爾。

Thank you, Stacey. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in this morning's call. I am pleased to be here today to recap what was an exceptional year for Verisk, marked by strategic, organizational and cultural change, matched with outstanding financial performance and value creation for clients and shareholders alike.

謝謝Stacey。大家早安，感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。我很高興今天能在這裡回顧Verisk過去一年的卓越成就。這一年，公司在策略、組織和文化方面進行了變革，同時取得了出色的財務業績，並為客戶和股東創造了價值。

Elizabeth will provide the financial detail. But in summary, we delivered 8.7% organic constant currency revenue growth in 2023, the strongest performance on record since our initial public offering back in 2009. And we exceeded the expectations we set at Investor Day in March.

伊麗莎白將提供財務細節。但總而言之，我們2023年實現了8.7%的有機收入成長（以固定匯率計算），這是自2009年首次公開募股以來最強勁的業績。而且，我們超越了3月份投資人日上設定的預期。

We combine this with double-digit organic constant currency adjusted EBITDA growth and 150 basis points of margin expansion on an Insurance-only basis, achieving the low end of the initial margin improvement goal of 300 basis points 1 year earlier than our original target of 2024. And we have plans in place to build on that in 2024 and beyond.

我們結合兩位數的有機固定匯率調整後 EBITDA 成長和僅保險業務利潤率提升 150 個基點，提前一年實現了最初設定的 300 個基點利潤率提升目標的下限（原定目標為 2024 年）。我們已製定計劃，在 2024 年及以後繼續保持這一增長勢頭。

Despite the separation of our non-Insurance business, we still grew free cash flow 6% to over $800 million and above our 2022 level on an unadjusted basis. Over the past 2 years, we demonstrated capital discipline by returning over $4 billion in proceeds from recent dispositions to shareholders through share repurchases, reducing our share base by about 10%. This also served to substantially improve our capital efficiency and boost our returns on invested capital.

儘管我們剝離了非保險業務，但我們的自由現金流仍成長了6%，超過8億美元，高於我們2022年的預期水準（未調整）。過去兩年，我們透過股票回購將近期資產處置所得的40多億美元返還給股東，展現了良好的資本紀律，使我們的股本減少了約10%。這也顯著提高了我們的資本效率，並提升了投資報酬率。

And while our strong 2023 revenue growth was exceptional, the long-term opportunity of addressing our clients' most pressing needs gives me confidence in our strategy to drive consistent and predictable growth in 2024 and beyond. The insurance industry backdrop in which we are operating is relatively comparable to 2023. Insurance carriers continue to deal with cyclical challenges on profitability resulting from higher losses and the lagging effects of inflation by restricting new business in profit-challenged markets.

儘管我們2023年的營收成長強勁，表現卓越，但滿足客戶最迫切需求的長期機會讓我對我們2024年及以後持續穩定成長的策略充滿信心。我們所處的保險業環境與2023年基本相似。保險公司仍在應對獲利能力方面的周期性挑戰，這些挑戰源於更高的損失率和通膨的滯後影響，因此它們會限制在盈利困難的市場開展新業務。

The most recent AM Best data shows losses for the first 9 months of 2023 were $32.2 billion, a further deterioration from the $24.5 billion in net losses recorded through the first 6 months of the year and tracking way ahead of the pace of losses in 2022. This caused AM Best to downgrade their outlook for the homeowners line from stable to negative, while also maintaining their negative outlook on personal auto.

AM Best最新數據顯示，2023年前9個月的損失高達322億美元，較上半年245億美元的淨損失進一步惡化，且遠超2022年的損失速度。因此，AM Best將房屋保險的展望從穩定下調至負面，同時維持對個人汽車保險的負面展望。

To some extent, profitability challenges in the industry were the result of higher catastrophe-related losses. Our own PCS data points out that 2023 was the highest year on record for frequency of catastrophe activity with 74 events. While 2023 did not have a major tropical hurricane make U.S. landfall, wind and severe convective storms were dominant and the major source of events in the year. That said, the fourth quarter of 2023 was a relatively quiet period with only 7 events and was lower than the fourth quarter of 2022, which experienced 13 events.

某種程度上，產業獲利能力面臨的挑戰源自於災害相關損失的增加。我們自身的PCS數據顯示，2023年是災害活動頻率最高的一年，共發生74起事件。雖然2023年沒有大型熱帶颶風登陸美國，但強風和強烈對流風暴佔據主導地位，是當年災害事件的主要來源。不過，2023年第四季相對平靜，僅發生7起災害事件，低於2022年第四季的13起。

On the more positive end, carriers are having success raising rates and driving premium growth and are taking the very early steps in certain lines to unwind restrictions on writing new business as they achieve rate adequacy. In fact, net written premium growth increased 10.8% for the first 9 months of 2023. More structurally, the insurance industry continues to be challenged by the rapid pace of technological change, including digitalization and cloud migration. This is being compounded by the fact that the industry also faces technological debt and aging legacy systems.

從積極的方面來看，保險公司在提高費率和推動保費增長方面取得了成功，並且在某些險種中，隨著費率達到合理水平，它們正率先採取措施逐步解除對新業務的限制。事實上，2023年前9個月的淨保費收入成長了10.8%。從結構性角度來看，保險業持續受到快速技術變革的挑戰，包括數位化和雲端遷移。此外，該行業還面臨技術債和老舊遺留系統的雙重壓力。

In addition, the industry continues to experience growing regulatory focus on issues of data privacy fairness and climate risk. Our business model and strategy are designed to address our customers' most pressing needs, both from a cyclical and structural perspective. We invest on behalf of the industry, applying our industry knowledge and technical expertise at scale to deliver value to our clients at a lower cost of investment and ownership than any one participant can achieve individually. As we work with our clients on a more integrated basis, the opportunities to develop new solutions expands.

此外，監管機構對資料隱私公平性和氣候風險議題的關注度持續提升。我們的商業模式和策略旨在從週期性和結構性兩個層面滿足客戶最迫切的需求。我們代表整個行業進行投資，運用我們豐富的行業知識和技術專長，大規模地為客戶創造價值，同時降低投資和持有成本，使其低於任何單一參與者單獨實現的成本。隨著我們與客戶進行更深入的合作，開發新解決方案的機會也隨之增加。

We are focused on the 3 key priorities we articulated back at Investor Day, namely delivering consistent and predictable top line growth, driving operating efficiency and profitability and ensuring disciplined capital allocation. Let me spend a few minutes on how we plan to go after each in 2024 and beyond. Our first priority is delivering consistent and predictable growth through strategic dialogue with clients in innovation. Throughout 2023, we made substantial progress on our initiative to elevate the strategic dialogue with our clients and to become their strategic data analytic and technology partner.

我們專注於在投資者日上提出的三大關鍵優先事項，即實現持續穩定的營收成長、提升營運效率和獲利能力，以及確保穩健的資本配置。接下來，我將簡要介紹我們計劃如何在2024年及以後實現這些目標。我們的首要任務是透過與客戶的創新策略對話，實現持續穩定的成長。在2023年，我們在提升與客戶的策略對話水準、成為其策略數據分析和技術合作夥伴方面取得了顯著進展。

During the year, I met with over 3 dozen client CEOs and senior leaders, representing over half of the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry direct written premium, to discuss how we could better support their objectives. Three primary themes came up repeatedly. How can you accelerate and expand the delivery of data and analytics to our organization? How can Verisk augment the capabilities of our colleagues to improve their ability to manage the amount of information they receive? And finally, how can Verisk help better connect the ecosystems we operate in to improve our efficiency.

在這一年中，我與超過30位客戶公司的執行長和高階領導會面，他們代表了美國財產和意外保險業超過一半的直接承保保費，我們探討瞭如何更好地支持他們的目標。三個主要主題反覆出現：如何加快並擴大向我們組織提供數據和分析的範圍？ Verisk如何增強我們同事的能力，以提高他們管理所接收資訊量的能力？最後，Verisk如何幫助我們更好地連結營運所在的生態系統，進而提高我們的效率？

On the acceleration point, we are intensively addressing this opportunity across our businesses, but perhaps most significantly in our Core Lines Reimagine project to reengineer how we deliver our core data sets and analytics to meet the rapidly evolving ingestion demands of our clients. Prospectively, we see the application of low, no-code and micro services technology that we have successfully deployed in the life insurance industry, having material significance to the property and casualty segment and have been working with clients on testing applications.

在加速發展方面，我們正積極在各項業務中把握這項機遇，尤其是在「核心業務重塑」專案中，我們致力於重新設計核心資料集和分析的交付方式，以滿足客戶快速變化的資料攝取需求。展望未來，我們認為已成功應用於人壽保險業的低代碼、無代碼和微服務技術，對財產和意外保險領域也具有重要意義。我們一直在與客戶合作，測試相關應用程式。

On augmentation, we have already been applying generative AI technology through our Discovery Navigator Solution to dramatically accelerate the summarization of large and complex medical files in our casualty business. Prospectively, we have been developing and working with clients to refine several augmented underwriting applications.

在增強技術方面，我們已經透過 Discovery Navigator 解決方案應用生成式人工智慧技術，顯著加快了我們意外險業務中大型複雜醫療檔案的摘要處理速度。展望未來，我們一直在開發並與客戶合作，以完善多個增強型核保應用程式。

On connectivity, we have been investing in our Xactware platform to support the integration of more ecosystem and partners. Last week, I attended our Elevate Conference in Salt Lake City, which had record attendance from our insurance, contractor, adjuster clients and over 30 ecosystem partners. Both clients and partners expressed enthusiasm for our delivery of improved connectivity and efficiency, demonstrating the network potential of this business.

在連結性方面，我們一直在投資 Xactware 平台，以支援更多生態系統和合作夥伴的整合。上週，我參加了在鹽湖城舉行的 Elevate 大會，與會者人數創歷史新高，我們的保險公司、承包商、理賠員客戶以及 30 多家生態系統合作夥伴都出席了會議。客戶和合作夥伴都對我們提升連結性和效率的成果表示讚賞，這充分展現了我們業務的網路潛力。

Finally on connectivity. We were thrilled at last week's announcement of Marsh's expansion of its digital trading initiative on the Verisk Whitespace platform. This builds on a successful pilot in 2023, which traded over $400 million in premium and is a gratifying endorsement by a world-leading insurance broker that should draw more participation onto a data-first platform that will drive greater efficiency for the market. With expansion across its U.K. specialty and international placement business, Marsh anticipates that over 90% of all client premium in that segment will flow through the platform by the end of 2024.

最後說說互聯互通方面。上週，Marsh宣布擴大其在Verisk Whitespace平台上的數位化交易計劃，我們對此感到非常振奮。該計畫建立在2023年成功試點的基礎上，當時的試點計畫交易了超過4億美元的保費。作為一家世界領先的保險經紀公司，Marsh的這項舉措令人欣喜，也必將吸引更多參與者加入這個以數據為先的平台，從而提升市場效率。隨著Marsh在英國專業保險和國際業務領域的拓展，預計到2024年底，該領域超過90%的客戶保費將透過該平台進行交易。

Our strategic conversations are also helping to drive more informed innovation. In our conversations with clients, we repeatedly hear about the increasing regulatory focus and reporting requirements on fairness and unfair discrimination. To address this need during the fourth quarter, we launched FairCheck, a solution designed to address issues of fairness and discrimination in the underwriting process. FairCheck helps insurers test their personal lines' models and variables to respond to regulatory change and to evaluate and mitigate the potential for unfairly discriminatory outcomes. This solution is an extension of the work we did internally to assess Verisk's own personal auto rating model to determine whether there were unfair pricing outcomes regarding race. We recently signed a national property and casualty carrier to be our first customer.

我們的策略對話也有助於推動更具前瞻性的創新。在與客戶的交流中，我們一再聽到監管機構日益關注公平性和不公平歧視問題，並提出了更高的報告要求。為了滿足這項需求，我們在第四季推出了 FairCheck，旨在解決承保流程中的公平性和歧視問題。 FairCheck 幫助保險公司測試其個人險種的模型和變量，以應對監管變化，並評估和降低不公平歧視結果的可能性。該解決方案是我們內部工作的延伸，此前我們曾對 Verisk 自身的個人汽車保險定價模型進行評估，以確定是否存在與種族相關的定價不公平結果。我們最近與一家全國性財產和意外傷害保險公司簽約，該公司成為我們的第一位客戶。

Internally, during 2023, we worked with an outside consultant to sharpen our go-to-market strategy and are implementing the first steps of this changed approach in 2024. This includes an investment behind sales effectiveness, incorporating a change to the composition of incentives to be more in line with industry best practices. In addition, we have identified pricing and packaging opportunities within property estimating solutions and extreme event solutions. And we will be bringing them to market throughout this year.

2023年，我們內部與外部顧問合作，優化了市場推廣策略，並於2024年開始實施這項變革的第一步。這包括加大對銷售效率的投入，調整激勵機制，使其更符合業界最佳實踐。此外，我們在房地產估價解決方案和極端事件解決方案中也發現了定價和產品組合的最佳化機會，並將於今年陸續推出。

Our second priority from Investor Day is driving operating efficiency and profitability. We remain committed to driving operating efficiency and margin expansion over time. We are leaning into our global talent optimization initiative, tapping into the talent-rich and low-cost markets like Krakow, Poland and Hyderabad, India. We have recently expanded our real estate footprint in both markets to support our growth. Additionally, we should continue to achieve savings as we modernize and optimize our technology infrastructure across all our legacy systems, including our internal financial and human capital ERP upgrade, which is underway and which should start delivering early efficiency benefits in 2025 with the full impact to be achieved in 2 to 3 years.

投資者日後，我們的第二項重點工作是提升營運效率和獲利能力。我們將繼續致力於長期提升營運效率和利潤率。我們正大力推動全球人才優化計劃，積極開拓人才資源豐富且成本低的市場，例如波蘭克拉科夫和印度海得拉巴。近期，我們已在這兩個市場擴大了房地產規模，以支持業務成長。此外，隨著我們對所有傳統系統（包括內部財務和人力資本ERP升級）的技術基礎設施進行現代化改造和優化，我們將繼續節省成本。目前，該系統正在升級中，預計將於2025年開始初步提升效率，並在2至3年內全面發揮作用。

As we look out, we see opportunity in improving our operational efficiency by careful reviews of our workflow and processes. We will continue to deploy our Lean Six Sigma program to drive additional savings and continue to focus on our organizational structure and efficiency. And finally, our third priority is disciplined capital allocation. Disciplined capital allocation underscores all our decision-making at Verisk. We invest our strong free cash flow into value-creating opportunities that support growth with attractive returns. Excess capital is returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

展望未來，我們看到了透過認真審查工作流程和程序來提升營運效率的機會。我們將繼續推行精益六西格瑪項目，以進一步節省成本，並持續專注於組織架構和效率提升。最後，我們的第三項優先事項是審慎的資本配置。審慎的資本配置是Verisk所有決策的核心。我們將強勁的自由現金流投資於能夠創造價值、支持成長並獲得可觀回報的項目。剩餘資本將透過分紅和股票回購的方式返還給股東。

In 2023, our return on invested capital was approximately 26% with incremental returns on capital at approximately 19% as we continue to invest our capital at high internal rates of return. We are excited about the many opportunities we have to invest across our business in emerging technologies, including generative AI, low, no-code applications and international expansion.

2023年，我們的投資資本報酬率約為26%，隨著我們持續以高內部報酬率進行投資，資本增量報酬率約為19%。我們對在業務的各個領域投資新興技術的眾多機會感到興奮，這些新技術包括生成式人工智慧、低程式碼/無程式碼應用程式以及國際擴張。

We also are investing behind upgrades and replatforming of our core solutions, some of which have been underinvested and need modernization to support future innovation. The most notable example is our Core Lines Reimagine project. As we highlighted before, we are about 1/3 of the way through this project from an investment perspective, and we are engaging our clients as we plan for customer-facing modules launching in 2024. While there is still much work to be done, we are already driving returns through strong contract wins with our largest customers as they recognize the value of the program. We are also investing in modernizing our property estimating solutions platform to advance our strategic goal of creating a more open ecosystem that is resilient, redundant and available for all stakeholders.

我們也在加大對核心解決方案的升級和平台重構投入，其中一些解決方案先前投入不足，需要進行現代化改造以支援未來的創新。最顯著的例子就是我們的核心業務重塑計畫。正如我們先前強調的，從投資角度來看，該專案已完成約三分之一，我們正在與客戶溝通，並計劃於2024年推出面向客戶的模組。雖然仍有許多工作要做，但我們已經透過與最大客戶簽訂強有力的合約獲得了回報，因為他們認可了該專案的價值。此外，我們還在投資對房地產估算解決方案平台進行現代化改造，以推進我們的策略目標，即創建一個更加開放、具有彈性、冗餘且對所有利害關係人可用的生態系統。

We are simplifying partner integration and developing new services to enable deeper workflow integration, richer solutions and better client services. This initiative should increase our agility, and create a more dynamic work environment for both our clients and our development teams.

我們正在簡化合作夥伴整合流程，並開發新服務，以實現更深入的工作流程整合、更豐富的解決方案和更優質的客戶服務。這項措施將提升我們的敏捷性，並為我們的客戶和開發團隊創造更具活力的工作環境。

We are also excited about the opportunities to continue to create incremental value in our Insurance-related acquisitions. For example, in claims, we are driving growth and synergies in our 3 recent acquisitions in Germany, where we have a leading market position in the bodily injury space, and are adding services and technology offerings in the auto and property spaces through the acquisitions of ACTINEO, Krug and Rocket, respectively. These acquisitions enable us to deliver solutions and add value to our German customers across the entire claims life cycle.

我們對在保險相關收購中持續創造增值機會感到振奮。例如，在理賠領域，我們近期在德國完成的三項收購正在推動成長並產生協同效應。我們在德國人身傷害領域擁有領先的市場地位，並透過分別收購ACTINEO、Krug和Rocket，在汽車和財產保險領域拓展服務和技術產品。這些收購使我們能夠為德國客戶提供貫穿整個理賠生命週期的解決方案並創造價值。

Before we close, I want to address the recent leadership announcements naming 3 new business leaders to the Verisk Senior Operating Committee. Rob Newbold was named President, Extreme Events, taking over the reins from Bill Churney, who retired at the end of the year. And Doug Caccese and Saurabh Khemka, who are recently named Co-Presidents of Underwriting Solutions, replacing Neil Spector, who has moved into a strategic advisory role. All 3 leaders are evidence of our deeply talented management bench and focused leadership development and succession planning process.

在結束之前，我想談談最近任命的三位新業務領導人加入Verisk高級營運委員會的消息。 Rob Newbold被任命為極限活動總裁，接替年底退休的Bill Churney。 Doug Caccese和Saurabh Khemka最近被任命為核保解決方案聯合總裁，接替轉任策略顧問的Neil Spector。這三位領導者的任命體現了我們人才濟濟的管理團隊以及我們專注的領導力發展和繼任計畫。

I want to thank both Bill and Neil for their many contributions to Verisk and to me personally as I stepped into the role of CEO. And while we will miss them, they have left their business in the very capable hands of talented, experienced and energized leaders.

我要感謝比爾和尼爾對Verisk的諸多貢獻，也感謝他們在我接任CEO期間給予我的幫助。雖然我們會想念他們，但他們已將公司託付給才華橫溢、經驗豐富且充滿活力的領導者，他們完全有能力帶領公司繼續發展。

2023 was a demonstration of Verisk's evolving culture. We delivered strong financial success while absorbing organizational and leadership change. And I am excited about having the fresh perspective and energy of these 3 leaders as we move into 2024.

2023年充分展現了Verisk不斷發展的企業文化。我們在取得強勁的財務表現的同時，也成功應對了組織架構和領導階層的變革。展望2024年，我很高興能迎來這三位領導者帶來的全新視野與活力。

With that, I'll hand it over to Elizabeth to review our financial results.

接下來，我將把這項工作交給伊莉莎白，讓她審核我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Lee, and good day to everyone on the call. I am pleased to share that Verisk delivered a solid fourth quarter, capping off an outstanding 2023. On a consolidated and GAAP basis, fourth quarter revenue was $677 million, up 7.4% versus the prior year, reflecting solid growth in underwriting and more modest growth in claims.

謝謝Lee，也祝各位電話會議參與者今天愉快。我很高興地告訴大家，Verisk第四季業績穩健，為2023年畫上了圓滿的句點。以合併報表和GAAP準則計算，第四季營收為6.77億美元，年增7.4%，這主要得益於核保業務的穩健成長和理賠業務較為溫和的成長。

Income from continuing operations was $182 million, down 15.5% versus the prior year, while diluted GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations were $1.25, down 8.8% versus the prior year. The year-over-year decline in both measures were primarily due to a $19 million litigation reserve expense related to our former Financial Services segment that was previously sold alongside a onetime tax benefit of $30 million or $0.19 per share in the fourth quarter of 2022.

持續經營業務收入為1.82億美元，年減15.5%；持續經營業務稀釋後每股收益為1.25美元，較去年同期下降8.8%。這兩項指標較去年同期下降的主要原因是，先前於2022年第四季出售的金融服務業務部門提列了1,900萬美元的訴訟準備金，該業務部門同時獲得了一次性稅收優惠3,000萬美元（合每股0.19美元）。

Additionally, elevated depreciation and amortization expenses in the fourth quarter of 2023, resulting from the completion and implementation of certain large internally developed software projects during the year, also contributed to the decrease. These factors were partially offset by strong revenue growth, lower net interest expense and the benefit from our accelerated share repurchase program.

此外，由於2023年第四季一些大型內部開發軟體專案的完成和實施，導致折舊和攤提費用增加，也促成了這一下降。這些因素被強勁的收入成長、較低的淨利息支出以及加速股票回購計畫帶來的收益部分抵消。

Moving to our organic constant currency results. Adjusted for nonoperating items as defined in the non-GAAP financial measures section of our press release, our operating results demonstrated solid growth for most of our businesses.

接下來來看看我們以固定匯率計算的有機成長績效。根據新聞稿中「非GAAP財務指標」部分定義的非經營性項目進行調整後，我們的經營業績顯示，我們大多數業務都實現了穩健成長。

In the fourth quarter, OCC revenues grew 6% with growth of 7.3% in underwriting and 2.8% in claims. Normalizing for the $5.6 million in storm-related revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022, total OCC revenue growth would have been 6.9%, and claims OCC revenue growth would have been 6.0%.

第四季度，OCC收入成長6%，其中承保業務成長7.3%，理賠業務成長2.8%。若剔除2022年第四季560萬美元的風暴相關收入，OCC總收入成長率應為6.9%，理賠業務收入成長率應為6.0%。

As expected, and as we highlighted in prior quarters, some of the environmental trends recorded elevated growth earlier in the year began to normalize in the fourth quarter. Additionally, we did begin to overlap tougher comparisons in many of our businesses.

正如預期，也正如我們在前幾季所強調的那樣，年初一些環境因素帶來的高速成長在第四季開始趨於正常。此外，我們許多業務也開始面臨較嚴峻的同比基數效應。

That said, 2023 was a record year for Verisk with total OCC revenue growth of 8.7% driven by strong growth of 8.5% in underwriting and 9.3% in claims. Growth for the full year was broad-based with almost all businesses delivering better-than-expected results.

儘管如此，2023年對Verisk而言仍是創紀錄的一年，其OCC總收入增長了8.7%，這主要得益於承保業務8.5%和理賠業務9.3%的強勁增長。全年成長基礎廣泛，幾乎所有業務都取得了超出預期的業績。

Throughout 2023, our increased focus on the Insurance business and our energized organization capitalized on 3 key industry and environmental trends to amplify our growth. These trends included the pricing environment resulting from the hard insurance market, the high transaction activity driven by elevated shopping activity for auto insurance and the active U.S. weather patterns that Lee highlighted.

2023年全年，我們更加專注於保險業務，充滿活力的團隊充分利用三大關鍵產業和環境趨勢，加速了業務成長。這些趨勢包括：保險市場疲軟導致的定價環境；汽車保險市場需求旺盛推動的交易活躍度；以及Lee重點提到的美國氣候模式變化。

Our subscription revenues, which comprise 80% of our total revenue in the quarter, grew 7.3% on an OCC basis during the fourth quarter with growth in almost all our subscription-based solutions. The drivers of growth we experienced in the quarter were consistent with trends we saw throughout 2023.

訂閱收入佔本季總營收的80%，第四季按月計算成長7.3%，幾乎所有訂閱解決方案均成長。本季成長的驅動因素與2023年全年的發展趨勢一致。

More specifically, during quarter, we experienced the continued benefit on certain of our revenues from the stronger net premium growth in 2021, which is currently reflected in some of our contract pricing. In anti-fraud, we saw underlying strength in the business with growth augmented by the continued benefit from the conversion to subscription from previously transactional customers through our Claim Essentials bundle.

具體而言，本季度我們部分營收持續受益於2021年強勁的淨保費成長，已反映在部分合約定價中。在反詐騙業務方面，我們看到業務本身的強勁勢頭，成長得益於先前透過「理賠必備套餐」將交易型客戶轉化為訂閱型客戶的持續成長。

That said, we have started to anniversary the benefit we experienced from these conversions and are expecting the benefit from this transition to continue to moderate in 2024. These strengths were offset, in part, by continued weakness within Verisk Marketing Solutions and a more normalized level of attrition across the business, including some reduction in the level of contractor activity due to the weather and some pressure within our Insurtech customer segment.

儘管如此，我們已經開始評估這些轉型帶來的效益，並預期這種轉型帶來的效益將在 2024 年繼續趨於緩和。這些優勢在一定程度上被 Verisk Marketing Solutions 的持續疲軟以及整個業務中更為正常的人員流失所抵消，其中包括由於天氣原因導致承包商活動減少以及我們的保險科技客戶群面臨的一些壓力。

Our transactional revenues, representing 20% of total revenue in the fourth quarter, increased a modest 0.8% on an OCC basis, reflecting a tough comparison versus the prior year, which included revenues associated with Hurricane Ian. Adjusting for the storm impact, transactional revenue growth would have been 4.1%.

第四季度，我們的交易收入佔總營收的20%，以營業利潤率計算僅成長0.8%，這反映出與去年同期相比基數較高，因為去年同期包含了受颶風伊恩影響的營收。若剔除颶風的影響，交易收入成長率本應為4.1%。

During the quarter, we continued to see strong results from our auto solutions driven by healthy consumer shopping activity and the final quarter of benefit from the large nonrate action deal we signed for 2023.

本季度，我們的汽車解決方案繼續取得強勁業績，這得益於健康的消費者購物活動，以及我們為 2023 年簽署的大型非利率行動協議在最後一個季度帶來的收益。

We have begun to overlap the positive inflection in shopping behavior from last year and are expecting growth to moderate in 2024. Our transactional revenue growth also benefited from double-digit growth within life insurance solutions as we are seeing strong customer demand for incremental services. And within our extreme events business, we saw better-than-expected transactional growth driven by securitizations.

我們已開始延續去年購物行為的正面轉折點，並預計2024年成長將放緩。由於客戶對增值服務的需求強勁，我們的交易收入成長也得益於人壽保險解決方案的兩位數成長。此外，在極端事件業務方面，證券化業務推動了交易收入超出預期的成長。

Moving now to our adjusted EBITDA results. OCC adjusted EBITDA growth was 6.5% in the fourth quarter while total adjusted EBITDA margin, which includes both organic and inorganic results, was 53.4%, up 70 basis points from the reported results in the prior year. The fourth quarter margin rate reflects the positive impact of sales leverage, cost discipline and foreign currency changes. This was offset in part by margin pressure from higher incentive compensation, acquisitions and organic investments for future growth.

接下來來看我們調整後的EBITDA績效。第四季OCC調整後EBITDA成長6.5%，而包含內生成長和外延成長在內的調整後EBITDA利潤率為53.4%，較上年同期成長70個基點。第四季利潤率的提升反映了銷售槓桿、成本控制和匯率變動帶來的正面影響。但部分被更高的激勵性薪酬、收購以及為未來成長而進行的內生性投資帶來的利潤率壓力所抵銷。

2023 was a year of tremendous growth and efficiency for Verisk as evidenced by total OCC adjusted EBITDA growth of 11.5%, while total adjusted EBITDA margin was 53.5%, up 150 basis points from the prior year. This margin rate reflects core operating leverage from the strong revenue growth and cost discipline across the organization. As Lee discussed earlier, delivering operational efficiency and profitability remains a key priority for us as we move forward into 2024 and beyond. We have confidence we can continue to make further progress while also balancing investments to support future growth.

2023年對於Verisk而言是成長和效率顯著提升的一年，OCC調整後EBITDA總額成長11.5%，調整後EBITDA利潤率達到53.5%，較上年增長150個基點，充分證明了這一點。這一利潤率反映了強勁的營收成長和公司整體成本控制所帶來的核心營運槓桿效應。正如Lee先前所述，在2024年及以後，提升營運效率和獲利能力仍然是我們的首要任務。我們有信心在維持投資平衡、支持未來成長的同時，繼續取得更大的進展。

Continuing down the income statement. Net interest expense was $28 million for the fourth quarter compared to $41 million in the prior year. The current level of net interest expense reflects lower year-over-year debt balances as well as higher interest on cash balances. Depreciation and amortization of fixed assets was $68 million for the quarter, an increase of 57%. The increase was primarily driven by an additional $23 million of expense related to the timing of certain large internally developed software projects that were completed and placed into service during the year.

繼續分析損益表。第四季淨利息支出為2,800萬美元，而上年同期為4,100萬美元。目前的淨利息支出水準反映了同比債務餘額的下降以及現金餘額利息的增加。本季固定資產折舊和攤提為6,800萬美元，成長57%。成長的主要原因是，由於一些大型內部開發的軟體專案已於年內完成並投入使用，因此產生了額外的2,300萬美元費用。

On taxes, our reported effective tax rate was 24.9% compared to 9.9% in the prior year quarter. The year-over-year increase in the tax rate is related to the onetime tax benefit of $30 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, and a $19 million litigation reserve taken in the fourth quarter 2023 that we mentioned earlier. Adjusted net income decreased 9.3% to $204 million, and diluted adjusted EPS decreased 2.1% to $1.40 for the fourth quarter. These changes reflect the negative impact from the onetime tax benefit in the prior year quarter and higher depreciation and amortization expenses, partially offset by solid revenue and EBITDA growth, lower net interest expense and a lower average share count.

在稅項方面，我們報告的實際稅率為24.9%，而去年同期為9.9%。稅率年增率主要與2022年第四季一次性3,000萬美元的稅收優惠以及我們先前提到的2023年第四季提列的1,900萬美元訴訟準備金有關。第四季調整後淨利下降9.3%至2.04億美元，攤薄後調整後每股收益下降2.1%至1.40美元。這些變化反映了上年同期一次性稅收優惠和更高的折舊及攤銷費用帶來的負面影響，但部分被穩健的收入和EBITDA增長、較低的淨利息支出以及較低的平均流通股數量所抵消。

The share count reflects the impact of the additional $250 million of share repurchases executed in the fourth quarter as well as the final settlement of our $2.5 billion accelerated share repurchase plan that we entered into in March. From a cash flow perspective, on a reported basis, net cash from operating activities increased 1.4% to $252 million, while free cash flow increased 15.8% to $196 million. It is important to note that the prior year cash flow figures still include the results of our previously divested energy business. So these growth figures understate the full cash flow growth potential of our Insurance-only business.

股份數量反映了第四季度額外執行的2.5億美元股票回購以及3月份達成的25億美元加速股票回購計畫的最終結算的影響。從現金流角度來看，以報告數據計算，經營活動產生的淨現金流增加1.4%至2.52億美元，自由現金流增加15.8%至1.96億美元。需要注意的是，去年同期的現金流量數據仍包含了我們先前剝離的能源業務的表現。因此，這些成長數據低估了我們純保險業務的全部現金流量成長潛力。

On dividends and repurchases. During 2023, we returned $3 billion of capital to shareholders through dividends and repurchases. We are pleased to share that the Board has approved a $0.05 or 15% increase in our quarterly cash dividend to $0.39 per share. In addition, our Board has also authorized an additional $1 billion in share repurchases, bringing our total authorization to $1.6 billion. On guidance, we are pleased to deliver our expectations for 2024 with growth and margins in line with our Investor Day target. And they build upon the exceptional performance we delivered in 2023.

關於股利和股票回購。 2023年，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了30億美元的資本。我們很高興地宣布，董事會已批准將季度現金股利提高0.05美元，增幅15%，至每股0.39美元。此外，董事會還批准了額外的10億美元股票回購計劃，使我們的總授權回購金額達到16億美元。關於業績展望，我們很高興能夠實現2024年的預期目標，成長和利潤率都符合我們在投資者日設定的目標。這些目標建立在我們2023年所取得的卓越業績之上。

More specifically, we expect consolidated revenue for 2024 to be in the range of $2.84 billion to $2.9 billion. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $1.54 billion to $1.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin in the 54% to 55% range. This margin reflects strong cost discipline while also funding incremental investment opportunities that we expect to drive future growth. These opportunities include investing in our sales force to drive greater sales effectiveness, expanding internationally through acquisitions and building our capabilities with new advanced technologies, including generative AI. Walking further down the P&L. We expect depreciation and amortization of fixed assets in the range of $210 million to $240 million and amortization of intangibles of approximately $75 million. Both items are subject to the timing of completion of projects and foreign currency changes.

更具體地說，我們預計2024年合併收入將在28.4億美元至29億美元之間。我們預計調整後EBITDA將在15.4億美元至16億美元之間，調整後EBITDA利潤率將在54%至55%之間。這項利潤率反映了我們嚴格的成本控制，同時也為我們預期將推動未來成長的增量投資機會提供了資金。這些機會包括投資我們的銷售團隊以提高銷售效率，透過收購拓展國際市場，以及利用包括生成式人工智慧在內的新技術來提升我們的能力。進一步分析損益表，我們預期固定資產折舊和攤提將在2.1億美元至2.4億美元之間，無形資產攤銷約7,500萬美元。這兩項均受工程完工時間和匯率變動的影響。

We expect our tax rate to be in the range of 23% to 25%. This all culminates in adjusted earnings in the range of $6.30 to $6.60 per share. We also expect capital expenditures to be between $240 million and $260 million as we continue to invest organically to drive future growth. A complete list of all guidance measures can be found in the earnings slide deck, which has been posted to the Investors section of our website, verisk.com.

我們預計稅率將在23%至25%之間。所有這些因素最終將使調整後每股收益在6.30美元至6.60美元之間。同時，我們預期資本支出將在2.4億美元至2.6億美元之間，我們將繼續進行內生性投資以推動未來成長。所有業績指引的完整清單可在我們網站verisk.com投資者關係欄位發布的獲利預測幻燈片中找到。

And now I will turn the call back over to Lee for some closing comments.

現在我將把電話轉回給李，請他做一些總結發言。

Thanks, Elizabeth. In summary, we're excited about the opportunity that lies ahead. Our motivating purpose is to partner with our clients in building resilience for individuals, communities and businesses globally. The combination of our focused business model, deep customer relationships and strategy to deliver value for clients through improved decision-making and operational efficiency is a formula that will also deliver value to our shareholders through growth and returns. We continue to appreciate the support and interest in Verisk. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝伊麗莎白。總而言之，我們對未來的機會充滿期待。我們始終秉持著與客戶攜手合作的宗旨，致力於在全球範圍內增強個人、社區和企業的韌性。我們專注於業務模式，與客戶建立深厚的合作關係，並透過提升決策水平和營運效率為客戶創造價值。這項策略的結合，也將透過成長和回報為我們的股東帶來價值。我們衷心感謝大家對Verisk的支持與關注。 （操作員說明）

With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

這樣，我就可以請接線生開通提問專線了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Faiza Alwy from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Faiza Alwy。

So I wanted to talk about the revenue guide. Liz, you mentioned a few puts and takes, and we've been talking all of last year about some of the onetime impacts that you noted are normalizing. So maybe give us a bit more perspective, specifically how you're thinking about transaction growth and what some of the puts and takes there are.

所以我想談談營收預期。莉茲，你提到了一些利弊，我們去年也一直在討論你提到的那些逐漸恢復正常的一次性影響因素。所以，能否請你再詳細闡述一下，特別是你對交易成長的看法，以及其中存在的利弊。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難題）

takes. But zooming back on the full year, we really think there were 3 drivers of strength in 2023. The first was the pricing environment in the hard insurance market; the second was the transactional rebound and particularly the activity in the auto shopping space; and the third was the elevated weather activity, which, as you heard, 2023 was a record-breaking year for cat events even though there was a single large hurricane driving it. When we think about making assumptions for a future year, we think, in general, that first -- that hard insurance market does persist into 2024. But for the other factors for transactional activity, we would expect that to normalize somewhat. And for the weather, we can never forecast mother nature. So we assume a more normalized level of weather activity.

回顧2023年全年，我們認為主要有三個因素推動了市場強勁成長。首先是硬保險市場的定價環境；其次是交易量的反彈，尤其是汽車銷售市場的活躍度；第三是極端天氣事件頻發，正如您所聽到的，儘管2023年是由一場大型颶風引發的，但這一年巨災事件數量仍然創下歷史新高。展望未來，我們首先認為，硬保險市場的強勁動能將持續到2024年。至於其他影響交易量的因素，我們預期會趨於正常化。而天氣，我們永遠無法預測，因此我們假設天氣活動將恢復到較正常的水平。

Your next question comes from the line of Heather Balsky from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Heather Balsky。

It's (inaudible) on for Heather. Just wanted to comment a little bit more on the pricing environment for 2023. You said it was quite elevated. Can you comment on how that is going into 2024?

（聽不清楚）Heather 的發言開始了。我想再就 2023 年的定價環境多說幾句。您提到定價相當高。能談談 2024 年的定價狀況嗎？

Yes. So thanks. This is Lee. So first, let me distinguish, I think from a pricing standpoint, first, as we indicated in our comments and as Elizabeth just described, the overall premium growth market has continued to be strong as insurers have been able to secure some rate approvals. We think there's more progress in that regard. I want to differentiate that pricing environment, which has been constructive. And from our perspective, that is a partial benefit. It represents approximately 20% to 25% of our revenue base is tied to prior 2-year premium growth. And so that provides some level of support.

是的，謝謝。我是Lee。首先，我想從定價的角度來說明一下，正如我們在評論中提到的，也正如Elizabeth剛才所說，由於保險公司已經獲得了一些費率批准，整體保費增長市場依然強勁。我們認為這方面還有更多進展。我想強調的是，目前的定價環境是正面的。從我們的角度來看，這確實帶來了一定的益處。我們大約20%到25%的收入都與過去兩年的保費成長掛鉤。因此，這在一定程度上提供了支撐。

But I think the more meaningful element of our pricing is our ability to deliver value to our clients. We're doing that probably most significantly in the investment that we're making in our Core Lines Reimagine project, where early renewals from clients that have seen what we are doing, what we are creating, how we are improving their experience, their efficiency has demonstrated that value. And we have been able to realize stronger pricing momentum than we had originally anticipated, which we feel good about as we continue to deliver more functionality through that platform.

但我認為，我們定價中更重要的因素是我們為客戶創造價值的能力。我們在核心業務重塑專案上的投入，或許最能體現這一點。早期續約的客戶已經看到了我們正在做的事情、我們正在創造的產品、我們如何提升他們的體驗和效率，這充分證明了我們的價值。而且，我們實現的定價成長勢頭比最初預期的要強勁，這讓我們感到欣慰，因為我們將繼續透過該平台提供更多功能。

And I would say further, I think we -- through the go-to-market review that we have done, we have identified some areas to identify how we can capture more value that we are delivering to our clients from pricing structures that align to identifying and identifying that value that we're creating for our clients.

而且我想進一步說，我認為我們透過已完成的市場評估，已經確定了一些領域，可以確定如何透過與定價結構一致的方式來獲取我們為客戶創造的更多價值。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman from JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的安德魯·斯坦納曼。

First, I just want to say how much I appreciate Slide 7, the revenue mix, very helpful. My question is about Verisk auto underwriting revenues, which I think is all nonsubs. Just please verify that. How did this ad market do in the fourth quarter? And what's the assumption for '24 within the guide?

首先，我想說我非常感謝第7張投影片，也就是收入組成部分，它很有幫助。我的問題是關於Verisk的汽車保險承保收入，我認為這些收入全部都是非訂閱收入。請您確認一下。第四季的廣告市場表現如何？指引中對2024年的假設是什麼？

Thanks, Andrew, and thanks for the feedback on the slide. We're always listening to you guys. On the auto underwriting revenues, it is largely transactional but not 100%. There is some subscription revenues in there . And the shopping activity was -- in Q4, it tapered down from Q3, but it is still elevated relative to historical levels. I think for third-party data that the J.D. Power data encapsulates that. I think we are assuming that it will continue tapering down to more historic levels. Even at where it is, we're now lapping the benefit of the strong environment. But maybe for more on that environment, I'll turn it over to Doug Caccese.

謝謝安德魯，也謝謝你對幻燈片的回饋。我們一直都在聽取大家的意見。關於汽車保險承保收入，它主要來自交易，但並非完全如此。其中包含一些訂閱收入。購物活動－第四季較第三季有所下降，但仍高於歷史水準。我認為第三方數據中，J.D. Power 的數據很好地體現了這一點。我們預計購物活動將繼續下降至更接近歷史水平。即便在目前的水平，我們已經接近強勁市場環境帶來的效益。關於市場環境的更多細節，我把麥克風交給道格·卡塞斯。

Sure. Thanks, Elizabeth, and thanks, Andrew, for the question. Just -- I'll echo what you had said, Elizabeth. As we look at our internal data and also external shopping data, we see a slight slowdown in Q4 from the shopping activity. And when you look at it month over month, you see a slight slowdown from October, November, December. So we are seeing that slowdown happen. We expect that slowdown to continue. But in 2024, we expect still elevated levels of shopping activity. The pivot on this is also that we'll focus on our nonrate action campaigns, which actually allow us to go and help carriers bring in premium immediately that's leaking out of the book while they're waiting for rate to earn in, so it helps in that way.

當然。謝謝伊莉莎白，也謝謝安德魯的提問。伊莉莎白，我同意你剛才的說法。我們查看了內部數據和外部採購數據，發現第四季度採購活動略有放緩。而且，從每月數據來看，10月、11月和12月的採購活動也略有放緩。所以我們確實看到了這種放緩的趨勢，並且預計這種放緩趨勢還會持續。但我們預計2024年採購活動仍將維持在高水準。此外，我們將專注於非費率行動，這些行動實際上可以幫助保險公司立即收回因等待費率生效而流失的保費，從而發揮積極作用。

Your next question comes from the line of Ashish Sabadra from RBC.

你的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Ashish Sabadra。

I just wanted to focus on the subscription growth. There were 3 headwinds that were called out. I was just wondering how should we think about the Marketing Solutions, some of the attrition and contracted activity and insurance deck as we go through 2024.

我只想重點談談訂閱成長。有人提到了三個不利因素。我想知道，在展望2024年的時候，我們應該如何看待行銷解決方案、部分客戶流失、合約活動以及保險相關事宜。

Yes. On the marketing side, as we've called out in the year, carriers and being challenged and still trying to achieve profitable growth has not yet turned on their marketing spend. We are starting to see that tide turn, and some of them are returning to profitability. The marketing engines haven't been turned on quite yet, but you're starting to see green shoots in that environment. I would say we're assuming that it will start to return to more normalized levels in the second half of this year.

是的。在行銷方面，正如我們今年多次提到的，營運商面臨挑戰，仍在努力實現獲利成長，因此尚未加大行銷投入。我們開始看到這種情況有所轉變，部分業者已經恢復獲利。雖然行銷引擎尚未完全啟動，但市場環境已初見復甦跡象。我認為，今年下半年市場將開始恢復到更正常的水平。

Your next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬納夫·帕特奈克。

This is Brendan on for Manav. I just want to ask on the new product pipeline. Any benefits from that this year? What's kind of -- what's planned for this year? And then also, you talked about some incremental [investments] as well with AI, gen AI. So anything related to that.

這裡是 Brendan，代表 Manav。我想問一下關於新產品線的問題。今年有哪些進展？今年的計劃是什麼？另外，您也提到了一些關於人工智慧和新一代人工智慧的增量投資。關於這些方面，您有什麼想問的嗎？

Sure. Thank you, Brendan. And I'm going to repeat the question because you came through a little choppy there. So I think the question was how do we feel about a new product pipeline, areas of investment. And so I would say, we're really excited about a number of the new products and developments that we are -- that we have been working on. In particular, I think, certainly, a lot of the focus has been around generative AI and its application. And we've been exploring its application across a variety of our businesses.

當然。謝謝你，布倫丹。我再重複一次你的問題，因為你剛剛表達得有點斷斷續續。我想你的問題是，我們對新產品線和投資領域有何看法。我的回答是，我們對正在研發的許多新產品和專案感到非常興奮。特別是，我認為，我們投入了大量精力在生成式人工智慧及其應用上。我們一直在探索將其應用於我們各個業務領域。

I'm going to isolate for a second on our claims business where we have deployed some generative AI applications and are also looking at developing other applications. I'm going to ask my colleague, Maroun Mourad, to talk a little bit about what we're doing in that area as an example of what we have been looking to do more broadly.

我打算先簡單介紹一下我們的理賠業務，我們已經部署了一些生成式人工智慧應用，並且正在考慮開發其他應用。我將請我的同事馬龍·穆拉德（Maroun Mourad）談談我們在這個領域所做的工作，以此為例，說明我們更廣泛的發展方向。

Thank you, Lee, and thank you, Manav, for the question. Just building on our 2023 momentum, let me just highlight our strong levels of client engagement and ecosystem partner-driven innovations and co-creation that led to the productization of a couple of solutions.

謝謝Lee和Manav的提問。延續我們2023年的發展勢頭，我想重點強調我們強大的客戶參與度以及生態系統合作夥伴驅動的創新和共同創造，這些都促成了幾個解決方案的產品化。

In the casualty bodily injury space, we have deployed a traditional AI methods as well as generative AI technologies in the data extraction and medical file summary space, in conjunction with the deep domain expertise of our legal as well as medical staff in order to continue delivering value to our customers in that space and also in the property estimation space.

在人身傷害領域，我們結合法律和醫療人員的深厚專業知識，在資料擷取和醫療檔案摘要領域部署了傳統的 AI 方法以及生成式 AI 技術，以便繼續為該領域以及財產估價領域的客戶提供價值。

We have also deployed the gen AI and other AI methods in order to continue delivering automation in the estimation product process. We've talked in the past about XactXpert as a solution to continue driving productivity, speed as well as accuracy, which is very important for our customers to connect adjusters, contractors as well as insurers.

我們也部署了Gene AI和其他人工智慧方法，以持續推進估價產品流程的自動化。我們之前曾提到XactXpert，它能夠持續提升生產力、速度和準確性，這對我們的客戶來說至關重要，因為它能夠幫助他們連接理賠員、承包商和保險公司。

And I'd add to that, Brendan. I want to give you a taste of what we're doing on that front. But as many of you know, we've been really thrilled about the success that we've had with our fast businesses application of low and no-code technology to the Life Insurance business.

布倫丹，我還要補充一點。我想讓你了解我們在這方面正在做的事情。正如你們許多人所知，我們非常高興地看到，我們將低程式碼和無程式碼技術快速應用於人壽保險業務，並取得了顯著的成功。

We believe and have begun to engage with clients on how that can be potentially applied to the P&C area. So I think that's a broad opportunity. And then we also as a more insurance-focused entity have been able to try to integrate more of our data sets in our extreme events business and our specialty business solutions area, tying together some of the functions in the excess and specialty market and the reinsurance markets as well as tying together some of our claims data and our underwriting data. And so as we have now fully migrated to the cloud, our ability to facilitate those types of integrations are particularly attractive. So a lot of the great stuff that we have underway that should support future growth for the company.

我們相信，並且已經開始與客戶探討如何將這項技術應用於財產險領域。我認為這是一個廣闊的機會。此外，作為一家更專注於保險業務的公司，我們也嘗試將更多數據集整合到我們的極端事件業務和專業業務解決方案領域，將超額和特殊市場以及再保險市場的部分功能整合起來，並將我們的一些理賠數據和承保數據整合起來。隨著我們全面遷移到雲端，我們促進此類整合的能力尤其突出。因此，我們正在進行的許多重要項目都將為公司的未來發展提供支持。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Meuler from Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Jeff Meuler。

I know a lot of factors contribute to the consistent growth, but I just would love your perspective on the procyclicality of bookings or innovation sell-through, especially when it's discrete upsell. And I guess what I'm wondering is as the -- as you start to see the move towards premium adequacy, would you expect to see bookings pick up with that? And maybe can call out a few areas, I'd imagine marketing is one, but any other areas where there may be pent-up demand as the environment gets healthier from a profitability perspective?

我知道持續成長受多種因素影響，但我很想聽聽您對預訂量或創新產品銷售（尤其是獨立追加銷售）的順週期性有何看法。我想問的是，隨著高端產品逐漸普及，您是否預期預訂量會隨之成長？或許您可以指出幾個方面，我想行銷肯定算一個，但隨著獲利環境的改善，還有哪些領域可能存在被壓抑的需求？

Sure, Jeff. It's a complex question, and so I think we're trying to get our handle on it. I'm going to kind of isolate on as we see premium adequacy improve and the procyclicality dimension of the business. I should probably start by saying or by saying as I think many of our investors and analysts understand, we don't have a high degree of economic sensitivity. And so there is muted sensitivity to cyclical effects. We tend to be more influenced as you've observed by weather events or activities in the ILS market. And so those tend to have a more pronounced element to it.

當然，傑夫。這是一個複雜的問題，所以我們正在努力理解它。我打算重點談談保費充足率的提高以及業務的順週期性。首先，我想說的是，正如我們的許多投資者和分析師所了解的那樣，我們對經濟的敏感度並不高。因此，我們對週期性影響的敏感度也較低。正如你所觀察到的，我們更容易受到天氣事件或保險關聯證券（ILS）市場活動的影響。這些因素的影響更為顯著。

I do think that there is some procyclicality elements that as the business -- as the insurance industry is doing well and we've seen premium growth that, that does encourage more investment in technology and renovation that accelerates our ability to deploy some of the technologies that we have invested in. And that is a positive tailwind in that scenario. However, I want to isolate that to insurance cyclicality, so that as their profitability grows, and that may be separate and unconnected to just broader economic cyclicality, which is relatively muted. So hopefully that, I think, addresses kind of the core of your question, Jeff.

我認為確實存在一些順週期因素，因為保險業目前發展良好，保費收入也實現了增長，這確實會鼓勵企業加大對技術和改造的投資，從而加快我們部署已投資技術的速度。在這種情況下，這是一個積極的推動因素。然而，我想把這種影響限定在保險業的周期性波動範圍內，也就是說，隨著保險業獲利能力的成長，這種波動可能與更廣泛的經濟週期性波動無關，因為後者相對溫和。所以，我想這應該能解答你問題的核心，傑夫。

Your next question comes from the line of Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

This is Greg Parrish on for Toni. Why don't you just talk about margin. You talked about what sounded like expansion of some of the ongoing efficiency initiatives that you have. Is the benefit from those within the ongoing 25 to 75 basis points in your framework and balanced by investment? Or do you skew a little bit higher over the next 2 to 3 years as you work through those initiatives? How do we think about that?

這裡是格雷格·帕里什，他正在替托尼提問。不如我們直接談談利潤率。您剛才提到了一些正在進行的效率提升計劃，聽起來像是要擴大規模。這些計劃帶來的收益是否在您目前的25到75個基點的框架內，並且與投資金額相平衡？還是說，隨著這些計畫的推進，未來兩到三年利潤率會稍微提高一些？我們該如何看待這個問題？

Yes. Thanks for the question. We are continually focused on efficiency here at Verisk and looking at the next levers that we can pull. We do think in the long term that, that being efficient in our core business will enable us to fund some of the investments we've been talking about, all while delivering operating leverage in the business. So beyond 2024 is a long way out, and we'll come back and give impact on that in future years as we get closer. But that's the general concept of delivering efficiency in order to fund some investments and still have an expansion.

是的，謝謝你的提問。 Verisk 一直致力於提升效率，並不斷探索可以採取的下一步措施。我們認為，從長遠來看，提高核心業務的效率將使我們能夠為先前討論過的一些投資項目提供資金，同時也能提升業務的營運效率。 2024 年之後還有很長一段時間，我們會隨著時間的臨近，在未來幾年再來評估其影響。但總的來說，我們的思路是透過提高效率來為投資項目提供資金，並實現業務擴張。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Silber from BMO Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

I want to continue on the margin discussion, and I'm sorry if I'm misspeaking here. But I'm looking at your Investor Day slide last March, where you were guiding for 54% to 50% -- 56%, excuse me, adjusted EBITDA margins in 2024, and then another 25 to 75 basis points increase in 2025. Today, you're talking about 54% to 55% in 2024. I'm just wondering what's changed since then? And should we still expect the margin expansion in 2025 that you guided to last year?

我想繼續討論利潤率的問題，如果我表達有誤，請見諒。我看了您去年三月投資者日的幻燈片，當時您預測2024年調整後EBITDA利潤率將達到54%至50%——抱歉，應該是56%，然後2025年再增長25至75個基點。而今天，您又說2024年利潤率將達到54%至55%。我想知道自那時以來發生了什麼變化？我們是否仍然應該期待2025年利潤率能像您去年預測的那樣成長？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Jeff. Yes, you're right. Our range now as a 1-year guidance and a 1-point range is a tightening from what we have said at Investor Day, which at that time, it was 2 years out and a 2-point range. And I'll remind you that, that Investor Day range, the 54% to 56% itself was a tightening of what had been our 3-year margin target, which was a 3-point range of 53% to 56%. So our trajectory over the past 3 years has been to increase margins by 150 basis points in 2022, another 150 basis points in 2023.

是的。謝謝你的提問，傑夫。你說得對。我們現在給出的1年期業績指引範圍和1個百分點的幅度，比我們在投資人日上公佈的2年期業績指引範圍有所收窄。我還要提醒你，投資者日上公佈的54%至56%的利潤率指引範圍，本身也是在我們之前設定的3年期利潤率目標（53%至56%，3個百分點）的基礎上收窄的。因此，過去三年我們的業績目標是在2022年將利潤率提高150個基點，並在2023年再提高150個基點。

And then currently, the midpoint of this guide would represent another 100 basis points on top of that. So we are balancing that margin expansion and the trajectory of margin expansion with investments in growth. The differential between the current midpoint of our guide and the midpoint at Investor Day is entirely encompassed by the 3 incremental investments that I highlighted that were not yet in the cards at the time of Investor Day. Those are the investments in our sales force that Lee discussed, the international expansion with our M&A that has taken place since Investor Day and then the investments in generative AI to drive new products.

目前，本指南的中點數值在此基礎上再增加100個基點。因此，我們正在平衡利潤率擴張及其發展軌跡與成長投資之間的關係。本指南目前中點數值與投資者日時中點數值之間的差異，完全由我重點提及的三項新增投資構成，這些投資在投資者日時尚未提上日程。這三項投資分別是：Lee提到的對銷售團隊的投資、自投資者日以來透過併購實現的國際擴張，以及用於推動新產品開發的生成式人工智慧投資。

So I think we're delivering on all of our client-facing investments, those -- the 3 ones being the ones that are particularly new since Investor Day. We're doing that while still delivering 100 basis points of margin expansion. And so we think that balance is an attractive package. If you compound this and this margin expansion on top of what we already delivered in 2023, you come out ahead of those targets that we had in March.

所以我認為，我們所有面向​​客戶的投資項目都取得了成效，尤其是自投資者日以來新增的三項投資。同時，我們也實現了100個基點的利潤率提升。因此，我們認為這種平衡方案極具吸引力。如果將此成果和利潤率提升疊加到我們2023年已實現的業績上，最終的成果將超過我們3月設定的目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Jeffrey from Truist Securities.

你的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Andrew Jeffrey。

I'll echo Andrew's comments on Slide 7, super helpful. And my question goes specifically to that graphic. Lee and Elizabeth, when you look at the different solutions here, maybe you could call out a couple about what you're the most excited and perhaps where you think you have the ability to drive faster growth. Whether that's on the claims side or the underwriting side, it sounds like you have some pricing initiatives. Obviously, life and rest of world is pretty exciting, if somewhat small. But are there a couple of areas where you think -- if we look at this chart, say, 3 to 5 years from now, where the contribution of certain solutions have significantly changed?

我完全同意Andrew對第7張投影片的評論，非常有幫助。我的問題也專門針對那張圖表。 Lee和Elizabeth，當你們查看這裡不同的解決方案時，能否重點介紹幾個你們最感興趣的，以及你們認為在哪些方面最有能力推動增長？無論是在理賠方面還是承保方面，聽起來你們都有一些定價方面的舉措。顯然，人壽保險和其他險種業務雖然規模較小，但也相當令人興奮。但是，如果展望未來3到5年，你們認為哪些領域的解決方案的貢獻會顯著改變？

Yes, thank you, Andrew. I'm going to answer your question in a way that I think gives you some insight in terms of where we see value creation opportunity. I think first off, all of our businesses are clearly generating strong organic growth, delivering value to the industry. They're at different scale levels.

是的，謝謝你，安德魯。我會從我認為能讓你更深入地了解我們認為哪些方面存在價值創造機會的角度來回答你的問題。首先，我認為我們所有的業務都實現了強勁的內生成長，為產業創造了價值。它們的規模各不相同。

And so I'll reiterate that for instance, in our forms, rules and loss cost area where we focused our Core Lines Reimagine area. That's a broad area where we are creating value. And I'm going to ask Saurabh Khemka, who leads that effort in that business, to talk a bit about how we're creating value there. It's probably our most scaled opportunity where we can find incremental, incremental value and capture that value.

因此，我再次強調，例如，在我們重點關注的核心業務重塑領域——表單、規則和損失成本領域，我們正在創造價值。接下來，我將請負責這項業務的 Saurabh Khemka 談談我們是如何創造價值的。這可能是我們規模最大的機會，我們可以在這裡發現並實現持續成長的價值。

Underneath the businesses as a whole, and this will harken back to Investor Day, we see opportunities to build network value. We've talked about it within the claims ecosystem, where we're adding partners which creates value for our -- all of our market participants, but particularly our Insurance clients. And I'll also note that with our specialty business solutions, while 3% of our total 2023 revenue contribution represents connectivity and a network impact, particularly with the Marsh announcement, that allows us to build value in that network expansion. And I think that holds true in a variety of areas, property estimating solutions in forms, rules and loss costs. But let me give Saurabh an opportunity to talk a little bit about where we are adding value to our clients in a variety of ways with the Core Lines Reimagine project.

從整體業務層面來看（這點在投資者日上也有提及），我們看到了建立網路價值的機會。我們在理賠生態系統中也討論過這一點，我們正在增加合作夥伴，這為我們所有的市場參與者，特別是我們的保險客戶創造了價值。我還想指出，在我們的專業業務解決方案方面，儘管2023年總收入的3%來自連接性和網路影響，尤其是在宣布收購Marsh之後，這使我們能夠透過網路擴展創造價值。我認為這在許多領域都適用，例如財產估價解決方案中的表格、規則和損失成本。現在，我想讓Saurabh有機會談談我們如何透過「核心業務重塑」專案以各種方式為客戶創造價值。

Sure. Thanks, Lee. So overall, we feel really good about where we are with the Reimagine program and the progress the team has made. And as the program naturally moves towards client deliverables in 2024, our customers will see additional value from benefits of our modernization of our internal systems, which will allow them to have faster access to our analytics, new analytics and insights like our executive industry insights that will be brought into the fine lines of business, will provide benchmark analytics to our customers. And new innovation around our forms management platform, which will make it easier for our customers to manage and track changes to our core programs. And finally, continued migration of our contents to the new platform. We are really encouraged by the client feedback around these innovations, and our customers are excited to see these come to fruition.

當然。謝謝，Lee。總的來說，我們對「重塑計畫」的進展以及團隊的成果感到非常滿意。隨著該計劃在2024年自然地向客戶交付成果，我們的客戶將從我們內部系統的現代化改造中獲得更多價值。這將使他們能夠更快地存取我們的分析數據，以及新的分析和洞察，例如我們將引入到各個業務環節的行業洞察，從而為客戶提供基準分析。此外，我們的表單管理平台也將迎來創新，這將使客戶更容易管理和追蹤我們核心程序的變更。最後，我們將繼續把內容遷移到新平台。客戶對這些創新的回饋令我們倍感鼓舞，他們也期待這些成果的最終實現。

And I'll cap it off by saying another dimension of incremental growth is the ability to move some of our traditional products into more of a SaaS type of environment. And there, in our extreme events business, the migration to more of a SaaS model, we believe, opens up opportunity to deliver more value to that segment of our clients as well. But thanks for the question.

最後我想補充一點，實現增量成長的另一個方法是將我們的一些傳統產品遷移到更偏向SaaS的環境。我們相信，在我們的極限運動業務中，向SaaS模式的遷移也能為我們這部分客戶創造更多價值。謝謝你的提問。

Your next question comes from the line of Surinder Thind from Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的蘇林德·辛德。

In terms of just the go-to-market strategy, the investment in the sales force at this point, can you provide a little bit more color in terms of are there like changes in compensation structure or headcount thing that you're looking for? How should we think about that part of the equation?

就市場推廣策略而言，目前對銷售團隊的投資方面，您能否詳細說明一下，例如您是否正在考慮調整薪酬結構或人員編制？我們該如何看待這部分問題？

Yes. Thank you, Surinder. So there are a number of elements, and I really have to complement the organization for its receptivity to outside perspectives on what we could be doing better. We looked at it across all of our businesses. And certainly, compensation structure was an area of focus. And there, I think we -- there were 2 things. One, we looked at where market levels were, both from a level and from a composition standpoint so that our sales team felt as though they were being fairly treated, create a good opportunity and aligning our interests with the customer. And we believe that, that will improve our retention and make certain that they are focused on the opportunities that generate the most value for us.

是的，謝謝你，蘇林德。這其中涉及許多方面，我必須讚揚公司樂於接受外部意見，並不斷改進自身工作。我們對所有業務都進行了審視。當然，薪酬結構是重點關注的領域之一。在這方面，我認為我們主要關注兩點。第一，我們從薪酬水平和組成兩個角度分析了市場水平，確保銷售團隊感受到公平對待，創造良好的發展機會，並使公司利益與客戶利益保持一致。我們相信，這將有助於提高員工留存率，並確保他們專注於那些能為我們創造最大價值的機會。

We also spent time looking at pricing relative to value, and where we feel as though we're delivering demonstrable value to our clients and how we can be more responsive to structuring our pricing in a way that aligns with our clients' perception of value and what their needs are. So I would just identify those as 2 of the primary functions. I would add somewhat outside of this, we have also been working to make certain that our sales effort is well tied into our senior-level strategic dialogue. So that as we have driven a stronger level of dialogue, we are communicating effectively internally to capitalize on opportunities for sales on existing products that our clients may not be aware of, or we find higher support because of the value proposition at a senior level within the organization. And so that's an area where we expect that we'll be able to do a better job as well.

我們也花時間研究了定價與價值之間的關係，思考我們如何為客戶提供實際可見的價值，以及如何更靈活地調整定價結構，使其更符合客戶對價值的認知和實際需求。因此，我認為這是兩個主要職能。此外，我們也致力於確保銷售工作與高階策略對話緊密結合。隨著對話的深入，我們能夠更有效地進行內部溝通，從而抓住現有產品的銷售機會，這些產品可能客戶尚未意識到，或者由於其價值主張而獲得了公司高層的更高支持。我們希望在這個領域也能做得更好。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Nicholas from William Blair.

你的下一個問題來自安德魯·尼古拉斯（Andrew Nicholas）的威廉·布萊爾（William Blair）的詩句。

I wanted to ask about the higher-growth businesses a different way. I think back in the Investor Day, you talked about those potentially representing 20% of your business in 2025. Is there a way to kind of comment on that trajectory and how those faster-growth businesses performed in 2023 specifically?

我想換個角度問關於高成長業務的問題。我記得在投資者日上，您提到這些業務到2025年可能會占到公司總業務的20%。您能否具體談談這個發展軌跡，以及這些高成長業務在2023年的表現？

Yes. This is Elizabeth. Yes, I can comment on that. They continue to be on the path and on the trajectory to achieve that goal. So they've achieved strong results in 2023. And the largest change in our growth mix in '23 versus kind of the algorithm laid out at Investor Day has been the overperformance of the core businesses.

是的，我是伊莉莎白。是的，我可以就此發表評論。他們繼續朝著目標穩步前進，並取得了顯著的成績。與投資者日上公佈的演算法相比，2023年我們成長結構的最大變化在於核心業務的超額收益。

Your next question comes from the line of Russell Quelch from Redburn Atlantic.

你的下一個問題來自 Redburn Atlantic 的 Russell Quelch。

Yes. Appreciate you having me on. I also appreciate the strategy you've been making in improving and growing the business. But I want to look at the free cash flow yield. It's still at the low end of the peer group. And Elizabeth did mention in her remarks, I think, a focus on growing free cash flow. So maybe you could expand on this a little bit and how much we should expect free cash flow to grow in 2024 and beyond?

是的。感謝邀請我來。我也很欣賞你們在改善和發展業務方面所採取的策略。但我更想了解自由現金流收益率。目前它仍然處於同業的較低水平。伊莉莎白在她的演講中也提到了要專注於提升自由現金流。所以，您能否就此再詳細談談，以及我們應該預期2024年及以後自由現金流能成長多少？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Russell. We'll have to look with you at that stat on free cash flow yield because we think the Insurance business has very strong free cash flow. Again, looking at it maybe as a percent of revenue may understate the strength of it. So we think it's been growing. I mean a demonstration of the growth in the Q4 number, which has grown over the prior year even though the prior year numbers still include the energy business. So we are excited about the free cash flow generation of the business.

是的，謝謝你的提問，Russell。我們需要和你一起仔細研究自由現金流收益率這個數據，因為我們認為保險業務的自由現金流非常強勁。再次強調，如果僅以收入百分比來衡量，可能會低估其強勁程度。我們認為保險業務的自由現金流一直在成長。第四季的數據體現了這一點，即使去年同期的數據包含了能源業務，但第四季的自由現金流仍然實現了成長。因此，我們對保險業務的自由現金流表現感到非常興奮。

We don't give guidance on it, but conceptually, it should continue to grow roughly in line with our bottom line. And I think the purest demonstration we can give of that confidence has been the commitment on the dividend increase.

我們不對此給出具體指引，但從理論上講，它應該會繼續與我們的淨利潤大致保持同步增長。我認為，我們能夠展現這種信心的最直接方式就是我們承諾提高股利。

Yes. And Russell, the one thing I would add is that I think that if you start with free cash flow, given accounting differences over time should even out. And so it should approximate our overall EBITDA growth rate, assuming that the CapEx is growing commensurate with that. I do think in 2024, we're seeing slightly higher CapEx growth because of what we see as a number of opportunities within the business. Part of that relates to the generative AI opportunity. And so we may have periods of higher level of CapEx investment that may bring the overall free cash flow growth down. But over the long term, we see that very -- it should be very commensurate with our overall adjusted EBITDA growth.

是的。 Russell，我還要補充一點，我認為如果從自由現金流入手，考慮到會計差異，隨著時間的推移，最終結果應該會趨於一致。因此，假設資本支出成長與自由現金流成長同步，那麼自由現金流成長率應該與我們整體的 EBITDA 成長率大致相當。我認為，由於我們看到了業務中的許多機遇，2024 年的資本支出成長率可能會略高一些。其中一部分與生成式人工智慧的機會有關。因此，我們可能會經歷資本支出投資水準較高的時期，這可能會拉低整體自由現金流成長率。但從長遠來看，我們認為自由現金流成長率應該與我們整體調整後的 EBITDA 成長率非常接近。

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Weber from Wells Fargo Securities.

你的下一個問題來自富國證券的賽斯韋伯。

Lee, I've heard a couple of times you talked about pricing opportunities. I think you called out extreme events and property estimating. I'm just trying to maybe get some more details on that. Do you think that will impact 2024? Or is that a longer-term kind of play here? And is this just sort of the first couple of areas where you're finding these new opportunities, and we should expect more of that kind of going forward? Or any way you can help frame this pricing opportunity?

李，我聽你幾次提到定價機會。我記得你提到了極端事件和房產估價。我想了解更多細節。你認為這會影響到2024年嗎？還是說這是一種長期策略？這只是你發現這些新機會的最初幾個領域嗎？我們以後是否應該期待更多類似的機會？或者你能否從其他方面幫助我們更能理解這些定價機會？

Yes. Seth, thanks for the question. It's difficult to kind of isolate it because it occurs across our business. I would say that certainly -- that those pricing improvements that I've referred to in terms of new contract renewals are factored into our 2024 guidance from an overall revenue growth perspective.

是的，Seth，謝謝你的提問。很難將其單獨拿出來討論，因為它貫穿我們業務的方方面面。我可以肯定地說，我之前提到的那些關於新合約續約的價格調整，確實已經從整體營收成長的角度納入了我們2024年的業績預期。

So in that regard, we're beginning to see some of that influence that -- our near-term expectations. But I do believe that it is a source of growth for us longer term. And it's not a really very different than what we described as our general operating model, which is that we believe that we can create much broader value for the industry by investing in this data and technology, and capturing that particularly as we add value to our existing clients is largely value-driven pricing. And so that supports the -- that longer-term 6% to 8% growth target that we are working to achieve on a predictable and consistent basis.

因此，在這方面，我們開始看到一些影響——影響了我們的近期預期。但我相信，從長遠來看，這將是我們成長的來源。這與我們之前描述的整體營運模式並沒有太大區別，即我們相信，透過投資數據和技術，我們可以為產業創造更廣泛的價值，尤其是在我們為現有客戶增加價值的過程中，主要透過價值驅動的定價來實現。因此，這支撐著我們正在努力實現的長期成長目標，即6%到8%的成長，並且我們將以可預測且穩定的方式實現這一目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Peters from Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Greg Peters。

This is [Sid] on for Greg. I wanted to focus on Slide 18 of your investor deck and when you talk about your capital management philosophy. And just moving forward, curious how we should view repurchases following in your capital management framework versus acquisitions or internal investments, et cetera?

我是Sid，替Greg發言。我想重點談談您投資人簡報的第18頁，以及您談到資本管理理念的部分。另外，我想問一下，在您的資本管理架構下，我們該如何看待回購、收購或內部投資等作業？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Sid. As we highlight there, our capital management philosophy really focuses on our returns on invested capital. We will look to invest in the business. Our CapEx range that we've given you for the year shows the organic investment in the business.

是的，謝謝你的提問，Sid。正如我們之前所強調的，我們的資本管理理念非常注重投資報酬率。我們會繼續投資於業務發展。我們先前提供的年度資本支出範圍就反映了我們對業務的自然成長投資。

On the M&A side, we are active in the market. And we will continue to evaluate opportunities and what we see out there for strong businesses, which bring something additive to the Verisk business. And those 2 things should be generating returns well above our cost of capital. And we assess that and continue to track it. As we highlighted in the script, our incremental returns on invested capital this year were approximately 19%. To the extent we don't find opportunities there, we will continue to return capital to shareholders as you've seen us do pretty consistently in the past.

在併購方面，我們積極參與市場活動。我們將持續評估市場機會，尋找那些能為Verisk業務帶來增值效益的優秀企業。這兩方面都應該能夠帶來遠高於我們資本成本的回報。我們會持續評估並追蹤這些回報。正如我們在簡報中所提到的，我們今年的投資資本增量報酬率約為19%。如果沒有找到合適的併購機會，我們將繼續像過去一樣，持續向股東返還資本。

And Greg, one thing that I would add, and I want to thank all of our investors who participated in the year-end investor survey that was conducted. We thought it was very important to get feedback after the first 3 quarters and following Investor Day.

格雷格，我還要補充一點，感謝所有參與年終投資者調查的投資者。我們認為在前三個季度結束後以及投資者日之後收集回饋意見非常重要。

And specific to your point and Elizabeth's comments, Greg, one very clear priority from the investors that we surveyed was a preference for internal investment, kind of recognizing our ability to leverage that and generate very high returns. And so we appreciate that input. We share the view that, that's very additive to our business and will clearly be a priority for us.

格雷格，關於你和伊莉莎白提到的幾點，我們調查的投資者中，一個非常明確的優先事項是他們更傾向於內部投資，他們認可我們利用內部投資創造高回報的能力。因此，我們非常感謝他們的意見。我們也認為，內部投資對我們的業務發展非常有益，顯然會是我們工作的首要任務。

Your final question today comes from George Tong from Goldman Sachs.

今天的最後一個問題來自高盛的喬治唐。

I wanted to dive a little bit deeper into some of the transaction, revenue trends you're seeing. Adjusting for storm comps, transaction revenue growth was 4% on an organic constant currency basis in 4Q. Directionally in 2024, how do you expect transaction revenue growth to trend from that 4% normalized for storm comps, considering trends like auto rate shopping behavior and the conversion of transaction revenue to subscription revenue. What are some of the puts and takes that gets you higher or lower than 4% transaction revenue growth this year?

我想更深入地探討您觀察到的一些交易和收入趨勢。經風暴影響調整後，第四季交易收入以有機成長和固定匯率計算成長了4%。考慮到汽車比價行為以及交易收入轉化為訂閱收入的等趨勢，您預計2024年交易收入的成長趨勢將如何變化？有哪些因素會導致您今年的交易收入成長率高於或低於4%？

Yes. Thanks for the question, George. You're right. The transaction revenue is -- well, first of all, it's coming off a full year of very strong transactional growth, double digit, I think, for the prior 4 quarters. So we are sort of lapping that period. The biggest driver in that elevated strength, a big piece of it was the auto shopping activity that we've talked about before and the weather trends actually being another element of that transactional growth. That was actually offset by some headwinds in our anti-fraud business as they converted transactional customers to subscription customers. So looking forward, I think we expect those trends to normalize. Again, we're not assuming elevated weather activity. The auto shopping trends will begin to normalize.

是的，謝謝你的提問，喬治。你說得對。交易收入——首先，它剛剛經歷了一整年非常強勁的交易成長，我認為前四個季度都保持了兩位數的成長。所以我們現在算是剛結束了那段時期。推動這一強勁成長的主要因素，很大一部分是我們之前提到的汽車購買活動，而天氣趨勢實際上也是促成交易成長的另一個因素。但實際上，由於反詐騙業務將交易客戶轉化為訂閱客戶，這在一定程度上抵消了上述成長。展望未來，我認為我們預計這些趨勢將會恢復正常。再次強調，我們不認為天氣因素會導致交易活動持續高漲。汽車購買活動的趨勢將會開始恢復正常。

We thank you for participating on the call today. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

感謝您今天參加電話會議。您現在可以掛斷電話了。祝您今天愉快。