UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today.

我的名字是 Regina，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the UWM Holdings Corporation fourth-quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call.

現在，我歡迎大家參加 UWM Holdings Corporation 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Blake Kolo, you may begin the conference.

布萊克·科洛，你可以開始會議了。

Good morning.

早安.

This is Blake Kolo, Chief Business Officer and Head of Investor Relations.

這是首席商務官兼投資者關係主管 Blake Kolo。

Thank you for joining us and welcome to the fourth quarter and full year 2024 UWM Holdings Corporation's earnings call.

感謝您的加入，歡迎參加 UWM Holdings Corporation 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

Before we start, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call includes forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。

For more information about factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements, please refer to the earnings release that we issued this morning.

有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，請參閱我們今天上午發布的收益報告。

Our commentary today will also include non-GAAP financial measures.

我們今天的評論還將包括非公認會計準則財務指標。

For information on our non-GAAP metrics and the reconciliation between the GAAP and non-GAAP metrics for the reported results, please refer to the earnings release issued earlier today, as well as our filings with the SEC.

有關我們的非公認會計準則指標以及報告結果的公認會計準則和非公認會計準則指標之間的調節的信息，請參閱今天早些時候發布的收益報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

I will now turn the call over to Mat Ishbia, Chairman and CEO of UWM's Holdings Corporations and United Wholesale Mortgage.

現在，我將把電話轉給 UWM 控股公司和聯合批發抵押貸款公司董事長兼執行長 Mat Ishbia。

Thanks, Blake, and thank you, everyone for joining us today.

謝謝，布萊克，也謝謝大家今天的到來。

2024 was another fantastic year.

2024 年又是輝煌的一年。

I think you saw the headlines of one of the toughest mortgage years in a while.

我想您已經看到了近年來抵押貸款最困難的一年的消息。

Obviously, the last three years have been tough.

顯然，過去三年是艱難的。

We grew 29% year over year, about $139 billion.

我們年增29%，達到約1390億美元。

Our gain on sale was up 20%, to 110 basis points, and the broker channel, which is the biggest indicator.

我們的銷售收益成長了20%，達到110個基點，這是最大的指標。

All the things we've been talking about grew quite a bit as well.

我們討論的所有事情也都有了很大的發展。

I think the third quarter metric was maybe 27.4%, which is far higher than we've seen in 15 years.

我認為第三季的指標可能是 27.4%，遠高於我們 15 年來的水準。

All of the themes we've been talking about have continued to happen.

我們討論的所有主題都在繼續發生。

We continue to dominate the purchase market, leverage our competitive advantages in talent, technology, and world class service.

我們持續主導採購市場，利用人才、技術和世界級服務的競爭優勢。

And like I said, help the broker channel grow its highest share of industry in years.

正如我所說的，幫助經紀人通路實現多年來最高的行業份額。

So exciting to see.

看到真是令人興奮。

We retained our title as the largest mortgage company in the US.

我們保留了美國最大抵押貸款公司的地位。

Now I think that's in 2024 was the third consecutive year we're the number one mortgage company in America.

現在我認為到 2024 年我們將連續第三年成為美國第一大抵押貸款公司。

The fourth consecutive year, the largest purchase lender in America.

連續第四年成為美國最大的採購貸款機構。

And now, I think it's the 10th consecutive year as the number one wholesale lender.

現在，我認為我們已經連續十年成為第一批發放貸款機構。

So we're very proud of what we're doing here at UWM. 2024 was an amazing year.

我們對在威斯康辛大學密爾瓦基分校所做的事情感到非常自豪。 2024 年是令人驚奇的一年。

And we're super excited about 2025.

我們對 2025 年充滿期待。

As I've spoken in the past few quarters, we continue to invest in cutting edge technology, including AI, investing in our people.

正如我在過去幾個季度所說的那樣，我們將繼續投資包括人工智慧在內的尖端技術，投資我們的人才。

And we're in the best position to capitalize on any change in the current market dynamics.

我們處於最佳位置，可以利用當前市場動態的任何變化。

There are about $2.5 trillion and growing in mortgage rates over 6%.

抵押貸款總額約為 2.5 兆美元，且利率成長超過 6%。

And so it won't take much for a shift in rates for those loans to be in the money.

因此，利率不需要發生太大變化就能讓這些貸款變成現實。

No matter what happens in the market, we are focused on what we can control and making sure we are more prepared than our competition.

無論市場發生什麼，我們都專注於我們能夠控制的事情，並確保我們比競爭對手更充分的準備。

You've all heard me say this before.

大家以前都聽過我這麼說。

I'll say it again.

我再說一次。

The unique thing about UWM is that our business is strong enough that we can simultaneously win big now while also preparing for the future, whether it be interest rates dropping, consumer trends changing, new technology, or even regulatory changes.

UWM 的獨特之處在於，我們的業務足夠強大，我們可以在當前取得巨大成功的同時為未來做好準備，無論是利率下降、消費趨勢變化、新技術，甚至是監管變化。

And 2024 was the lowest home sales year since 1995, and UWM had our best purchase year of all time, over $96 billion of production.

2024 年是自 1995 年以來房屋銷售量最低的一年，而 UWM 迎來了有史以來最好的購買年，產值超過 960 億美元。

We actually think that might be the highest of all time for any direct lender in history.

我們實際上認為，這可能是歷史上任何直接貸款機構所創下的最高紀錄。

But either way, we had an amazing 2024.

但無論如何，我們都度過了令人驚嘆的 2024 年。

Like I said, $139.4 billion in overall production, 29% increase.

正如我所說，總產值為 1,394 億美元，成長 29%。

We also tripled our refinance business in 2024 compared to 2023 despite the interest rate environment, which we'll talk about a little bit later.

儘管利率環境如此，但與 2023 年相比，2024 年我們的再融資業務也成長了兩倍，我們稍後會談到這一點。

We delivered about $330 million of net income, $329.4 million to be exact.

我們實現了約 3.3 億美元的淨收入，確切地說是 3.294 億美元。

And our gain margin is 110 basis points, which is up from 92 basis points last year.

我們的收益率為 110 個基點，高於去年的 92 個基點。

Turning to the fourth quarter.

展望第四季。

We had an amazing quarter across the board, $38.7 billion in production, well within our guidance.

我們本季的業績表現十分出色，產值達到 387 億美元，遠超我們的預期。

It's also worth pointing out, in that quarter, we did over $17 billion in the month of October.

另外值得指出的是，10 月我們的銷售額超過了 170 億美元。

It's like a five week minor rate drop what was it in, August and September.

這就像八月和九月五週的小利率下降一樣。

And with that little thing, we almost doubled our business and we kind of do a quick run rate, thinking $51 billion, $52 billion, $53 billion with a small rate drop.

透過這一小步，我們的業務幾乎翻了一番，而且我們的運行率很快，預計在利率小幅下降的情況下，我們的業務將達到 510 億美元、520 億美元、530 億美元。

What can happen if actually a bigger rate drop happens?

如果實際上發生更大幅度的利率下降，會發生什麼事？

We're going to all find out, but we are prepared here to double our business plus, which is exciting.

我們都會找到答案，但我們已做好準備使我們的業務翻一番，這是令人興奮的。

Gain margin was 105 basis points, well within the guidance for the quarter.

獲利率為 105 個基點，遠低於本季的預期。

And obviously, we did $40.6 million of net income.

顯然，我們的淨收入為 4060 萬美元。

So once again, great year, great quarter, firing on all cylinders at UWM.

再次，這是偉大的一年，偉大的一個季度，威斯康辛大學密爾瓦基分校全力以赴。

We're ready for whatever the market gives us and whatever the market does.

我們已經準備好接受市場給予我們和市場所做的一切。

We're ready to dominate here.

我們已準備好在這裡稱霸。

So I'm going to turn over to our CFO, Andrew Hubacker.

因此我將把麥克風交給我們的財務長 Andrew Hubacker。

He'll give you some more information.

他會給你更多資訊。

Thank you, Mat.

謝謝你，馬特。

Mat already covered many aspects of our Q4 and full year financial performance.

Mat 已經介紹了我們第四季度和全年財務業績的許多方面。

So I will just focus on just a few additional highlights.

因此我將只關注幾個額外的亮點。

We remained profitable operationally in 2024 with $460 million in adjusted EBITDA.

2024 年，我們仍維持營運獲利，調整後 EBITDA 為 4.6 億美元。

For Q4, our adjusted EBITDA was $118.2 million.

第四季度，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.182 億美元。

These operational results were largely consistent with the prior year even as we invested significantly in people, processes, and technology to prepare the company for continued growth.

儘管我們在人才、流程和技術方面投入了大量資金，為公司持續成長做好準備，但這些營運表現與去年基本一致。

We invested in growing our operations, underwriting, and technology teams to support increased production volume.

我們投資擴大我們的營運、核保和技術團隊，以支持增加的生產量。

And we believe that we have greater operational capacity than we did in 2021 when our origination volume exceeded $226 billion.

我們相信，我們的營運能力比 2021 年更高，當時我們的貸款發放量超過了 2,260 億美元。

Said differently, we believe that we can currently handle more than $100 billion of additional origination volume without increasing our fixed expenses.

換句話說，我們相信我們目前可以在不增加固定支出的情況下處理超過 1000 億美元的額外啟動量。

And despite our significant short and long-term investments, we earned $329 million on a GAAP basis and $460 million on an operational basis in 2024.

儘管我們進行了大量短期和長期投資，但我們在 2024 年按 GAAP 計算的利潤為 3.29 億美元，按營運計算的利潤為 4.6 億美元。

We also maintained our liquidity and capital and leverage ratios within targeted ranges in the current environment.

我們也將目前環境下的流動性、資本和槓桿率維持在目標範圍內。

As at the end of the year, we had approximately $2.1 billion of total equity, just over $500 million of cash, approximately $2.5 billion of total accessible liquidity, and an MSR portfolio with a fair value of approximately $4 billion.

截至年底，我們的總股本約為 21 億美元，現金略高於 5 億美元，總可用流動資金約為 25 億美元，MSR 投資組合的公允價值約為 40 億美元。

We talked about this throughout the year, but in so many ways, 2024 was a year of investing in our operational capabilities to prepare the company and the wholesale channel for what we see as significant market opportunities.

我們全年都在談論這個問題，但從很多方面來看，2024 年都是投資我們營運能力的一年，旨在讓公司和批發管道為我們所認為的重大市場機會做好準備。

We've also focused on being prepared for these opportunities from a capital and liquidity perspective.

我們也致力於從資本和流動性的角度為這些機會做好準備。

And we believe that we remain well-positioned operationally and financially for any market cycle.

我們相信，無論在任何市場週期，我們的營運和財務狀況都處於有利地位。

I will now turn things back over to our Chairman, President and CEO, Mat Ishbia for closing remarks.

現在，我將把會議交還給我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Mat Ishbia，請他作最後一次發言。

Thanks, Andrew.

謝謝，安德魯。

I'll close a few points before the Q&A.

在問答環節之前我想總結幾點。

2024 was a banner year.

2024 年是輝煌的一年。

From a production perspective, as you can see, we delivered great income as well really catch our 30 year old where we dominated in a down mortgage market.

從生產角度來看，正如您所看到的，我們實現了巨大的收入，並且真正抓住了 30 年前我們在抵押貸款市場低迷時期佔據主導地位的機會。

What you can't see the numbers in 2024 is a huge year of technology and artificial intelligence.

你在數字上看不到的2024年是科技和人工智慧的豐收年。

We invested in AI in three major categories: knowledge, efficiency, and growt.

我們對人工智慧的投資主要有三大類：知識、效率、成長。

And we are winning on all fronts.

我們在各條戰線上都取得了勝利。

And you'll see some of those things start to result in 2025 and '26 in our financials and our production.

你會看到，其中一些因素將在 2025 年和 2026 年開始對我們的財務和生產產生影響。

The broker channel continues to show incredible momentum.

經紀人管道繼續表現出令人難以置信的勢頭。

In the third quarter 2024, obviously, the fourth quarter numbers aren't out yet, the broker channel's share of all direct fund was 27.4%, up 7 percentage points from '22 third quarter.

2024年第三季度，顯然第四季的數字還沒出來，經紀管道在所有直接基金中的份額為27.4%，比2022年第三季上升了7個百分點。

So in two years, it grew 7% and almost double from where it was in the third quarter of 2020.

因此，兩年內，它增長了 7%，幾乎是 2020 年第三季的兩倍。

So in four years, it's almost doubled.

因此四年內，它幾乎翻了一番。

It's amazing to see.

真是令人驚奇。

Can we do it again, right?

我們可以再做一次嗎？

Do allegiance.

效忠。

Can we double it in the next four years again?

我們能在未來四年內再次翻倍嗎？

I don't know, but I know we're working hard towards it and the broker channel is gaining momentum just like we said it would since we went public years ago.

我不知道，但我知道我們正在為此努力，經紀人管道正在獲得發展勢頭，就像我們幾年前上市以來所說的那樣。

Additionally, by our calculations, over 16,000 loan officers joined the broker channel with over half of them actually leaving from the retail channel to join the brokers.

此外，根據我們的計算，超過 16,000 名貸款人員加入了經紀管道，其中超過一半實際上是從零售管道離開並加入經紀管道的。

This momentum is continuing.

這一勢頭仍在持續。

Like we talked about in '23 and '24, we're excited to see how it continues to grow going forward.

就像我們在 23 年和 24 年談到的那樣，我們很高興看到它將如何繼續成長。

With all these great things, with technology and broker channels, it always comes back to our people at UWM.

有了這些偉大的事情、有了技術和經紀管道，我們的工作總是回到 UWM 的員工身上。

The care factor and the culture we've created at UWM is what differentiates us.

我們在威斯康辛大學密爾瓦基分校創造的關懷因素和文化是我們與眾不同之處。

Also 25,000 clients we welcome on our campus.

我們的校園還迎來了 25,000 名客戶。

We're training each year, help spread the culture of the broker channel.

我們每年都在進行培訓，幫助傳播經紀人管道的文化。

Our team loves coming to work every day and our training program both internally and/or for our clients remains world class.

我們的團隊熱愛每天上班，我們內部和/或客戶的培訓計劃仍然是世界一流的。

So our people can continue to grow and flourish here at UWM.

因此，我們的員工能夠在威斯康辛大學密爾瓦基分校繼續成長和發展。

In 2025, our priorities remain the same: build the best technology and provide the best service to the broker channel, take incredible care of our team members and clients by treating them like family, win every single day by dominating on purchase and staying prepared for a shift in rates, and continue to reward our shareholders.

2025 年，我們的優先事項保持不變：打造最好的技術並為經紀人管道提供最好的服務，像對待家人一樣對待我們的團隊成員和客戶，透過主導購買和為利率變化做好準備來贏得每一天，並繼續回報我們的股東。

I'm very proud of what we did in 2024 and I'm excited about 2025.

我為我們在 2024 年所取得的成就感到非常自豪，我對 2025 年充滿期待。

Now looking at the guidance in Q1.

現在來看看第一季的指導。

We expect to do $28 billion to $35 billion.

我們預計銷售額將達到 280 億至 350 億美元。

As you guys always know, the first quarter is always the lowest production quarter.

眾所周知，第一季總是產量最低的季度。

And so we expect that to carry on this year as well.

我們預計今年這種情況也會持續下去。

Last year, we did $27.6 billion.

去年我們的營收達到了 276 億美元。

So that's actually below what our low end of the guidance is this year.

因此，這實際上低於我們今年的預期低端。

We also expect the gain on margin to be between 90 basis points and 115 basis points for the first quarter.

我們也預計第一季的利潤率成長將在 90 個基點至 115 個基點之間。

So we're expecting a great first quarter, but even more importantly, an amazing 2025 here at UWM.

因此，我們期待 UWM 第一季能夠取得優異成績，但更重要的是，我們期待 2025 年能取得令人驚嘆的成績。

So now, I'm going to turn over to questions.

現在我要開始回答問題了。

Thanks for your time today.

感謝您今天抽出時間。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Terry Ma, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬特里 (Terry Ma)。

Maybe just first starting with operating expenses.

或許只是先從營運費用開始。

It's quite a bit higher than what we were expecting this quarter.

這比我們本季的預期要高得多。

I'm just curious if there was anything one-time in there and kind of like what we should expect for a runway going forward.

我只是好奇其中是否有任何一次性的東西，以及我們對未來的跑道應該有什麼期待。

Yeah.

是的。

No, it's a one-time investment, but we're going to do it every month.

不，這是一次性投資，但我們每個月都會這樣做。

So what we're doing is we're investing in our business to dominate.

因此，我們正在做的就是投資我們的業務以佔據主導地位。

So the expenses are not even a thought in my mind.

所以我根本沒考慮過費用。

We're prepared.

我們準備好了。

As Andrew said, $100 billion more, but maybe to more than do that.

正如安德魯所說，還要再投入 1000 億美元，但可能還不只這些。

Like we can literally double our business.

就像我們的業務實際上可以翻倍一樣。

And so preparation is key.

因此，準備是關鍵。

As you guys saw, the little refi boom in October, we've almost doubled our business.

正如大家所看到的，十月的小規模再融資熱潮使我們的業務幾乎翻了一番。

Nobody else can do that.

沒人能做到這一點。

And so we're prepared for that, not only from the refi perspective but also the purchase as the momentum is really, really strong right now.

因此，我們已經為此做好了準備，不僅從再融資的角度，而且從購買的角度，因為現在的勢頭非常非常強勁。

And we're prepared to dominate.

我們已做好佔據主導地位的準備。

And so our business model is not nickel dime every expense.

因此，我們的商業模式並非每筆開支都精打細算。

Our business model is win.

我們的商業模式是雙贏。

And so these are investments, not expenses.

因此，這些是投資，而不是支出。

And in the big scheme of things, these little investments that we're talking about are going to pay such huge dividends just like we've always done.

從整體來看，我們所談論的這些小額投資將會像我們一直以來所做的那樣帶來豐厚的回報。

And so the expenses, we probably don't need to hire many more people.

從費用上來說，我們可能不需要僱用更多的人。

So we're going to be more flatlined is how we think about it from a perspective of replacing attrition.

因此，從替代損耗的角度來看，我們將會更平穩地思考這個問題。

So it's not like our expenses will go up more, but these were investments.

所以，這並不意味著我們的支出會增加，但這些都是投資。

2024 was an investing year and a technology building year and '25 is a dominant year.

2024 年是投資年和技術建設年，而 2025 年則是主導年。

That's what we're going for.

這正是我們要做的。

And maybe just on kind of refi.

或許只是某種再融資。

You mentioned you kind of tripled it in 2024.

您曾提到，到 2024 年，該數字將增加三倍。

Maybe just talk about all the initiatives you're doing around that.

也許只是談論一下您為此所做的所有舉措。

Kind of what the outlook is for shar and refi kind of going forward.

未來共享和再融資的前景如何。

Yeah.

是的。

Well, share and refi will be interesting to see.

嗯，分享和再融資將會很有趣。

But in general, the outlook is we are prepared, back to my earlier statement on the same topic, to double our business.

但總的來說，回到我之前關於同一主題的聲明，我們已經做好了準備，將我們的業務翻一番。

And you saw we tripled the refi and share while still doing more purchase business, which is phenomenal.

並且您將看到，我們的再融資和份額增加了兩倍，同時仍在進行更多的採購業務，這是非常了不起的。

I think it was the largest purchase year in history by any lender.

我認為這是歷史上任何貸款機構最大的購買年。

Obviously, it was a slow year from a purchase sales and all this stuff in the market.

顯然，從購買、銷售和市場所有方面來看，這是緩慢的一年。

So we think 2025 will be a better year.

因此我們認為 2025 年將會是更好的一年。

There's more houses for sale.

還有更多房屋待售。

And then on the refi side, you're talking about like like there's trillions of dollars that just need about a 25% lower rate than we are right now.

然後在再融資方面，你說的好像有數萬億美元只需要比現在低 25% 的利率。

Like we're not far off.

彷彿我們距離並不遙遠。

The 10 years is at 4.30, I think, ish.

我認為，10 年是 4.30 左右。

I always tell you 375 is where the money's at, but if it gets down closer to 4, you're going to start seeing some of this, and we are prepared.

我總是告訴你 375 是賺錢的地方，但如果價格降到接近 4，你會開始看到一些這樣的情況，我們已經準備好了。

And so we're excited about the opportunity on refi.

因此，我們對再融資的機會感到非常興奮。

We're going to continue to dominate on purchase.

我們將繼續在購買方面佔據主導地位。

And we're excited for what's going to happen in 2025.

我們對 2025 年即將發生的事情充滿期待。

I really think it's going to be a heck of a year.

我真的認為這將是艱難的一年。

Eric Hagen, BTIG.

BTIG 的 Eric Hagen。

So you guys have been really active with various incentives, offering other ways for successful brokers to pass along savings to borrowers.

所以，你們一直積極提供各種激勵措施，為成功的經紀人提供將儲蓄轉嫁給借款人的其他方式。

How do you maybe measure the success for these initiatives?

您如何衡量這些措施的成功？

Like how do you like benchmark that success at different levels for interest rates maybe or mortgage rates?

例如，您如何對不同水準的利率或抵押貸款利率進行基準評估？

Appreciate the question.

我很感謝你提出這個問題。

There's a lot of ways I can go through.

我可以透過很多種方式來實現。

It's probably more complicated and more detailed than I'm going to do on this call.

這可能比我在這通電話中要講的更複雜、更詳細。

But the key thing here is this is a lot of the, if you noticed I bumped our margin for the first time from 85 basis points to 110 basis points to 90 basis points to 115 basis points.

但這裡的關鍵是，如果你注意到，我第一次將我們的利潤率從 85 個基點提高到 110 個基點，再提高到 90 個基點，最後提高到 115 個基點。

So first time for years, we were at [75] to [100] in the troughs.

因此，這是多年來我們第一次處於[75]到[100]的低谷。

I believe the opportunity is coming.

我相信機會即將到來。

Now I don't -- it doesn't mean we're going to be on the high end of these things.

現在我不——這並不意味著我們將在這些事情上處於高端。

I think we're going to be consistently delivering what I always deliver, which I tell you we're going to do it, we do it.

我認為我們將始終如一地兌現我一直以來的承諾，我告訴你我們會做到的，我們就會做到。

But what I'll tell you is you see these incentives and these marketing things, and these are all great, but also you got to understand the all-in margin that we deliver.

但我要告訴你的是，你看到了這些激勵措施和行銷手段，這些都很棒，但你也必須了解我們提供的全部利潤。

A focus of ours.

我們的一個焦點。

And so the way I look at this, there's measurements on retention of those brokers and the LOs and what percentage of their business they use UWM for, how do we get them in the door, how do we get them bought into more of our products and services from training with success track.

因此，我的看法是，我們需要衡量這些經紀人和 LO 的保留率，以及他們使用 UWM 的業務百分比，我們如何吸引他們，如何讓他們透過成功軌跡培訓購買更多我們的產品和服務。

Like this week alone in the middle of February in Michigan, we have over 900 clients that flew to Pontiac, Michigan.

光是像密西根州二月中旬的這一周，我們就有超過 900 名客戶飛往密西根州龐蒂亞克。

I know Eric, you've been here before.

我知道艾瑞克，你以前來過這裡。

It's beautiful, but it's freezing out here.

這裡很美，但是天氣很冷。

But people still flew out here.

但人們仍然飛離這裡。

Because they're getting trained.

因為他們正在接受訓練。

And so like those are some of the ways you measure those investments.

這些就是衡量這些投資的一些方法。

It's like I'm investing in and giving a price incentive that might do this that drives them to understand what we do, which helps them grow their business, which then helps them get more business, which then drives them to UWM.

這就像我在投資並提供價格激勵，這可能會促使他們了解我們所做的事情，從而幫助他們發展業務，進而幫助他們獲得更多業務，然後推動他們來到 UWM。

Once again, that's a very layman's way of saying it.

再說一次，這是非常外行人的說法。

And I have a team of analytic people that have detail beyond detail about how it actually works and how we make it happen.

我有一個分析團隊，他們對它的實際運作方式和我們如何實現它有著極其詳細的了解。

And so a small little thing.

這真是一件小事。

If you looked at, I kind of mentioned it in the pre talk where like in October, like we doubled like overnight and it's like a $52 billion to $54 billion run rate with really not even a refi.

如果你看一下，我在之前的談話中提到過，例如在 10 月份，我們的資金在一夜之間翻了一番，達到了 520 億美元到 540 億美元的運行率，甚至還沒有進行再融資。

So it's like how do I train our brokers and coach them, ready to do refi, streamlines or earls or how do I teach them how to do cash outs and how do we do these things to getting them prepared?

因此，就像我該如何培訓我們的經紀人並指導他們，準備進行再融資、精簡或伯爵，或者我該如何教他們如何套現，以及我們如何做這些事情來讓他們做好準備？

It's all about preparation so that they can dominate and then we can dominate.

一切都是為了做好準備，這樣他們才能佔據主導地位，然後我們才能佔據主導地位。

I mean then looking here at the volume and margin guidance you give for the first quarter.

我的意思是，看看您給出的第一季的銷售和利潤預期。

I mean how much of that drop quarter over quarter would you just attribute to just seasonality versus there being an actual fall-off in demand at these rates?

我的意思是，以這樣的速度，與需求實際下降相比，您認為季度環比下降的幅度有多少是僅歸因於季節性因素？

And is there like a baseline minimum volume of originations you might expect right now even if rates were to go higher than they are today?

即使利率高於現在的水平，您是否可以預期目前存在一個最低基線發起量？

Yeah.

是的。

Great question, Eric.

很好的問題，埃里克。

I appreciate your thoughts on it.

我很欣賞你對此的想法。

And so yeah, we got it to 28 to 35 last year.

是的，去年我們的成績是 28 比 35。

I think we did 27 to 6 in the first quarter.

我認為我們在第一節的比數是27比6。

I don't remember what I guided to last year, but I would say it's materially less than what we're at right now.

我不記得我去年的指導目標是多少，但我想說的是，它比我們現在的水平要低得多。

These numbers, I expect us to do more each quarter.

這些數字，我預計我們每個季度都會做得更多。

We're trying to build upon building.

我們正在盡力建造。

So the way we look at it is right now, these numbers are actually really good.

因此從我們現在的角度來看，這些數字實際上非常好。

If you see what everyone else will guide you, whatever else things you're going to do, being able to guide to 20 to 35, once again, I'm not going to exceed those numbers.

如果你看到其他人都會指導你，無論你打算做什麼其他事情，能夠指導 20 到 35，再說一次，我不會超過這些數字。

Like I'm trying to give you real numbers where I think I'll be in this range on margin and at the same time volume.

就像我試圖給你一個真實的數字，我認為我的利潤率和交易量都會在這個範圍內。

But we feel really good about that.

但我們對此感覺非常好。

And to do $30 billion let's just call that the number, $29 billion, $30 billion in the first quarter, I don't know the last time that's been done besides in 2020 and 2021.

要達到 300 億美元，我們就把這個數字稱為第一季的 290 億美元、300 億美元，除了 2020 年和 2021 年之外，我不知道上次實現這個目標還有什麼時日。

And so if you think of the last 10 years of any mortgage company, once you find anyone that's done $30 billion in the first quarter besides '20 and '21, I don't think it's happened.

因此，如果您回顧任何一家抵押貸款公司的過去 10 年，您會發現除了 20 年和 21 年之外，任何一家在第一季的營收達到 300 億美元，我認為這種情況不會發生。

Maybe '22 because it was a holdover from the rates.

也許是’22，因為這是利率的遺留。

But what I'm saying is it's a great -- going to be an amazing quarter.

但我想說的是，這將是一個偉大的——令人驚嘆的一個季度。

And knowing that the second and third quarters always pick up, we kind of look at this as the low quarter.

由於第二季和第三季總是會回暖，因此我們將其視為低迷的季度。

First quarter is always the worst.

第一季總是最糟糕的。

Fourth quarter is the second worst.

第四季表現第二差。

Second and third are always awesome.

第二和第三總是很棒。

Derek Sommers, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的德瑞克‧薩默斯 (Derek Sommers)。

To follow up on the guidance question related to volume, in the first half of the year, we saw a purchase mix at around 80%.

為了跟進與數量相關的指導問題，在今年上半年，我們看到購買組合約為 80%。

In the second half, call at around 60%.

下半年，呼叫量約60%。

Kind of what are your expectations for that mix heading into '25?

您對 25 年這種組合有何期望？

And you're saying in the purchase mixture of the market?

您說的是市場購買組合嗎？

Both, of the market and UWM.

市場和 UWM 都是如此。

Yeah.

是的。

I mean a lot of it depended on interest rates, right?

我的意思是這很大程度上取決於利率，對嗎？

So like way I look at it and our focus is like how do we do $100 billion of purchase, right?

所以從我的角度來看，我們的重點是如何進行 1000 億美元的購買，對嗎？

And then refis, we did $96 billion of purchase this year and we had -- there wasn't much refi.

然後是再融資，我們今年的購買量為 960 億美元，而且再融資並不多。

Can we do $100 billion, $150 billion of refi?

我們能夠進行 1000 億美元、1500 億美元的再融資嗎？

Possibly.

有可能。

If rates go up to 7.5, well, we'll do $20 billion of refi, $30 billion of refi, right?

如果利率上升至 7.5，那麼我們將進行 200 億美元的再融資，300 億美元的再融資，對嗎？

And so understanding what the market in the 10 years.

因此要了解未來 10 年的市場狀況。

That's why it's like literally where no one else will be able to tell you this, Derek that like I can do $130 billion to $140 billion this year or I could do $260 billion this year, right?

這就是為什麼實際上沒有人能夠告訴你這一點，德里克，我今年可以做到 1300 億美元到 1400 億美元，或者我今年可以做到 2600 億美元，對嗎？

And I could do it at 90 basis points of margin or I could do it at 130 basis points of margin.

我可以以 90 個基點的保證金來做這件事，也可以以 130 個基點的保證金來做這件事。

Like that's how wide of a range it is.

它的範圍就是這麼廣。

But everyone else will say well, if the market turns and this happens and like we're actually prepared to do that right now.

但其他人都會說，如果市場轉變，這種情況發生，我們現在就準備好了。

Like if the rates drop tomorrow, something happens, like we'll do -- we could do $60 billion in the second quarter, right, at good margins.

例如，如果明天利率下降，就會發生一些事情，例如我們會做的事情——我們可以在第二季度實現 600 億美元的收益，對吧，而且利潤率很高。

That's how comfortable we are.

我們就是這麼舒服。

That's back to the first question about expenses.

這又回到關於費用的第一個問題。

It's not expenses, it's investments in the business.

這不是費用，而是對業務的投資。

Investments in the future.

對未來的投資。

And while making these massive investments from technology and operations and people, while making those massive investments, we're still profitable, right.

在對技術、營運和人員進行大量投資的同時，我們仍然可以獲利，對吧。

And very profitable.

而且利潤非常豐厚。

We don't count the MSR fluctuation, which I have no control of obviously.

我們沒有計算 MSR 波動，顯然我無法控制它。

And so we feel really good about that.

因此我們對此感到非常高興。

And I think we're really ready to do.

我想我們確實已經做好準備了。

So 60%, like it's hard to predict the numbers.

所以 60%，這個數字很難預測。

It's all dictated on the rates.

一切都由費率決定。

But for us, 60%, 65% purchase, 65% to 70% purchase in a higher rate, and then it could flip to 50-50.

但對我們來說，60%、65%的購買率，65%到70%的更高比例的購買率，然後可能會轉變為50-50。

It could go 60%, 40% to refi if the rates drop far enough.

如果利率下降到足夠低的話，它可以達到 60%、40% 的再融資水準。

And just what's your current approach to managing servicing UPB levels kind of relative to origination trends?

那麼，您目前管理服務 UPB 等級的方法與發起趨勢相比是什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

So we monitor very closely.

因此我們密切監視。

We understand the servicing asset very, very well.

我們非常非常了解服務資產。

And we're still probably the only one out there originating at such a high level that our asset goes up as a volume perspective with new originations.

而且，我們可能仍然是唯一一家資產規模如此之大的公司，從數量上看，我們的資產隨著新資產的發行而上升。

But we look at it all the time.

但我們始終在關注它。

We decide whether do we want to opportunistically sell.

我們決定是否要趁機出售。

We could go through the process there.

我們可以在那裡完成這個過程。

We're going to retain it all and just double the servicing book over this year, right?

我們會保留所有庫存，並將今年的服務帳簿翻一番，對嗎？

We could do that as well.

我們也可以這樣做。

There's a lot of things that we look at.

我們要關注的事情很多。

We like the asset in general.

總體而言，我們喜歡這項資產。

But at the same time, when people are going to pay us seven multiple, well, I'll sell it for seven multiple, right?

但同時，當人們願意付給我們七倍的價格時，那麼，我就會以七倍的價格賣掉它，對嗎？

And so we look at some of these numbers.

我們來看一下這些數字。

And sometimes people are looking at paying those numbers.

有時人們會考慮支付這些費用。

And if they're not, then we retain it because we feel really good about the asset.

如果不是，我們就會保留它，因為我們對這項資產感覺非常好。

And so it's a balancing act, understanding cash and cash consumption while at the same time, building our servicing portfolio and helping our brokers continue to grow.

因此，這是一種平衡行為，了解現金和現金消耗，同時建立我們的服務組合併幫助我們的經紀人繼續發展。

So we feel good about where we're at right now.

因此我們對目前的狀況感到很滿意。

And you can ask me like what the vision is, what the strategy is.

你可以問我，願景是什麼，策略是什麼。

I can tell you all that stuff and I could say, but tomorrow something could change.

我可以告訴你所有這些事情，也可以說，但是明天事情可能會改變。

And I'll modify it, right?

我會修改它，對嗎？

And that's how we look at it.

這就是我們的看法。

We look at it every day because that's we're in the weeds of the business.

我們每天都會關注它，因為這就是我們業務中最核心的部分。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯喬治，KBW。

Actually just following up on that question on the MSR.

實際上只是跟進 MSR 上的這個問題。

I mean given that you guys issued debt.

我的意思是，鑑於你們發行了債務。

You obviously have a lot of cash on your balance sheet, a lot of liquidity.

你的資產負債表上顯然有很多現金和流動資金。

You've paid down the warehouse line.

您已付清倉款。

Does that change how you might -- what you might do in terms of MSR sales or are those two kind of independent decisions?

這會改變您在 MSR 銷售方面的做法嗎？

Everything's tied into it, right?

一切都與此相關，對嗎？

So everything is part of the equation, but nothing drives the equation, right, besides the conversations, the data, understanding the marketplace.

所以一切都是等式的一部分，但除了對話、數據和了解市場之外，沒有什麼可以推動等式。

And so it's hard to answer the question.

所以這個問題很難回答。

But like going through like what comes into the thing, we have a risk committee.

但就像處理事情的進展一樣，我們有一個風險委員會。

We meet with everyone.

我們與每個人都見面。

Organizationally, we make decisions on these things and so it depends on the situation.

從組織上來說，我們會對這些事情做出決定，因此這取決於具體情況。

I could give you the exact answer right now.

我現在就可以給你確切的答案。

And then someone calls back and say, okay, we'll bump that option to the MSR deal to this number.

然後有人回電說，好的，我們會將該選項加到 MSR 交易的這個號碼上。

And we'll say, okay, well, for an extra $30 million in cash, all right, we'll do it, right?

然後我們會說，好吧，再加 3000 萬美元現金，好吧，我們就這麼做，對嗎？

And so like all those things are coming to it.

所有這些事情似乎都即將發生。

The nice part for us on the MSRs is we actually continuously make it like we make it.

對我們來說，MSR 的優點在於我們實際上不斷地製造出我們想要的東西。

So we originate.

於是我們就誕生了。

No one else makes it at the levels we make it.

沒有人能達到我們的水準。

So therefore, everyone else is trying to buy it and get something that we make.

因此，其他人都試圖購買並獲得我們生產的東西。

I can go make more, right, anytime.

我可以隨時做更多，對吧。

And so we go make more every single month, every single quarter.

因此我們每個月、每季都會做出更多貢獻。

And no one else originates the levers we do.

而且沒有人能像我們一樣發明槓桿。

And so we're constantly originating and making the MSR asset.

因此我們不斷創造和創造 MSR 資產。

And therefore, we look at all the aspects of it and make decisions on whether we sell or not.

因此，我們會從各個方面考慮，然後決定是否要出售。

We can sell excess, but we replenish it every single month, every single day.

我們可以出售多餘的，但我們每個月、每天都會補充。

Like the numbers are -- so it's not as much of a concern where other places are like, they sold their MSRs or they're not selling, but our number moves materially based on how much we originate.

就像數字一樣——所以這並不像其他地方那樣令人擔憂，他們出售他們的 MSR 或不出售，但我們的數字會根據我們的發起量發生重大變化。

And then actually going back to, I think Andrew made that comment, $100 billion you could originate without increasing fixed expenses.

然後實際上回到安德魯所說的，你可以在不增加固定支出的情況下籌集 1000 億美元。

I was just curious, is there a good way to think about fixed versus variable in that sort of scenario?

我只是好奇，在這種情況下，有沒有一個好方法來思考固定與可變？

No, not really.

不，不是真的。

I mean like we're prepared fixed wise.

我的意思是我們已經做好了明智的準備。

Obviously there are variable expenses with every loan with credit report costs and all these things go up all the time.

顯然，每筆貸款都會產生可變的費用和信用報告費用，而且這些費用都在增加。

But we feel really good about, and I know you're trying to figure out how to do a model which I respect and understand.

但我們感覺非常好，而且我知道您正在嘗試弄清楚如何建立一個我尊重和理解的模型。

But like we're in a really great position from a fixed expenses.

但從固定開支來看，我們處於非常有利的地位。

We don't have as much like the fixed expenses operationally.

我們在營運上的固定開支並不多。

And then there's obviously variable on every single file.

然後顯然每個文件都有變數。

But sometimes there's less variable expenses that we will realize.

但有時我們實現的變動費用較少。

And a lot of these numbers hit the bottom line.

其中許多數字都觸及了底線。

And I think -- so although I can't show you each example from the month, but like the gain on sale margin that will go up and the volume that will go up is so excessively more than any expenses, fixed or variable, that come on our balance sheet or come on our expense or come on our income statement, that it's going to be a huge, huge difference in a positive way.

我認為——儘管我無法向您展示每個月的每個例子，但銷售利潤的增加和數量增加的幅度遠遠超過我們資產負債表、費用或損益表上的任何固定或可變費用，這將產生巨大的積極影響。

And that's why we're prepared because if you miss that window, which is what everyone else does is they keep their expenses low and then the market moves, what happens?

這就是我們做好準備的原因，因為如果錯過了這個機會，而其他人都這樣做，他們將開支保持在低位，然後市場發生變化，會發生什麼？

Like look at 2021, when that stuff happens.

就像看看 2021 年，那時這些事情就會發生。

And like we're able to make $1 billion plus in a quarter, right?

我們一個季度就能賺 10 億美元以上，對吧？

Like and so but if you're not prepared for that, like these things pass you by and so we're prepared.

就像這樣，但是如果你沒有為此做好準備，這些事情就會從你身邊溜走，所以我們已經準備好了。

There are going to be variable expenses that are a little more than a normal if you do more volume, but it's not a big number relative to it.

如果交易量較大，變動費用會比正常情況下稍微高一些，但相對於正常情況來說不算大。

And it's going to be a huge amount of money hitting the bottom line, which is what we're prepared for.

這將為企業帶來巨額資金損失，我們已經做好了準備。

Brad Capuzzi, Piper Sandler.

布拉德·卡普齊、派珀·桑德勒。

Just wanted to talk about if you guys had any updates on the dynamics playing out, within the broker channel.

只是想談談你們是否對經紀人管道內正在發生的動態有任何更新。

Obviously some of your peers have been talking it up, and UWMC has a very strong hold on the channel.

顯然，您的一些同行一直在談論此事，並且 UWMC 對該管道的控制力非常強。

But I was wondering if pricing has been rational and if you're seeing any increased competition.

但我想知道定價是否合理以及是否看到競爭加劇。

Yeah.

是的。

So the broker channel is winning.

因此，經紀人管道正在獲勝。

It's growing.

它正在生長。

And I think like I know -- I don't know how long you've been doing it, Brad.

我想我知道——我不知道你已經做了多久了，布拉德。

But I know you've been to our office once before.

但我知道您以前來過我們辦公室一次。

You probably understand a little bit about the business.

您可能對該業務有一點了解。

But like the broker channel is growing.

但像經紀人通路正在成長。

It's growing faster than I even thought it would grow to be honest with you.

老實說，它的成長速度比我想像的還要快。

Seeing that it's almost doubled in four years, it's crazy to even talk about.

看到它在四年內幾乎翻了一番，甚至談論起來都很瘋狂。

I said it when we went public.

當我們上市的時候我就說過了。

And so you can go back and pull my roadshow and all the stuff and everyone else's roadshow, everyone said they're going to focus on wholesale because it's growing.

因此，你可以回去看看我的路演和所有其他人的路演，每個人都說他們將專注於批發，因為它正在增長。

No one thought it would grow as much as I said it would and it has.

沒有人想到它會像我說的那樣增長這麼多，而且它確實也增長了。

At the same time, everyone says they're going to get into it, and I love it.

同時，每個人都說他們會參與其中，我喜歡這樣。

I love it when these guys try to come play with us because it's only good for the brokers.

我喜歡這些傢伙嘗試和我們一起玩，因為這對經紀人來說只有好處。

And at the same time, they can't compete.

但同時，他們又無法競爭。

Anytime a broker uses one of these other lenders, they just kind of say, oh my gosh, I can't use them again.

每當經紀人使用其他貸款人時，他們就會說，天哪，我不能再使用他們了。

And so it's okay.

所以沒關係。

I like the competition.

我喜歡競爭。

We have not seen any increase in pricing competition, to be honest with you.

坦白說，我們並沒有看到價格競爭的加劇。

We are very clear.

我們非常清楚。

Our margins actually, as you just saw were up 20% year over year.

正如您剛才看到的，我們的利潤率實際上比去年同期增長了 20%。

And we did more business over almost 30% more year over year.

我們的業務量比去年同期成長了近 30％。

And so yes, everyone's coming for the wholesale channel.

是的，每個人都來批發通路。

Everyone wants to be involved with the brokers, but none of them are willing to do what it takes.

每個人都想與經紀人有牽連，但卻沒有人願意付出代價。

And what it takes is technology, partnership, helping brokers win and grow.

它所需要的是技術、合作關係，幫助經紀人贏得勝利並成長。

And we are in that game all day every day.

我們每天都在進行這場遊戲。

They're going to follow our margins.

他們將會追隨我們的利潤。

I tell you, we control it.

我告訴你，我們控制它。

I set the margins daily and we set them and everyone else follows us.

我每天設定利潤，我們設定利潤，其他人也跟著我們。

We are the leader and it's not close, but great for the competition.

我們是領先者，雖然差距不大，但對於比賽來說非常有利。

I think it's important that they tell you that stuff so you can move their price targets up, all that BS.

我認為他們告訴你這些事情很重要，這樣你就可以提高他們的價格目標，所有這些都是廢話。

You should probably move ours up too, by the way, because yours is a little low with yourself.

順便說一句，你也許應該把我們的提高一點，因為你的對自己來說有點低。

But anyways, like all that stuff is silliness, right?

但無論如何，所有這些東西都是愚蠢的，對吧？

People want to come in.

人們想進來。

And they've been saying it for years.

他們已經這麼說好多年了。

We're coming.

我們來了。

We're going to be the number one wholesaler.

我們將成為第一批發商。

Once you go back and forth, we're going to be the number one wholesaler.

只要你來來回回，我們就會成為第一批發商。

We're going to take UWM down.

我們要拆除 UWM。

We have almost 50% of the market.

我們佔了近50%的市佔率。

So we're excited about it.

所以我們對此感到很興奮。

We love the competition, but the best part about the whole thing that I just went through is brokers are winning.

我們喜歡競爭，但我剛剛經歷的整個事情中最好的部分是經紀人正在獲勝。

Those loan officers, retail loan officers, they're leaving to join broker channels.

那些貸款人員、零售貸款人員紛紛離開，加入經紀通路。

Brokers are growing because they're cheaper, faster, and easier.

經紀商的不斷增長是因為他們更便宜、更快捷、更容易。

And with the new administration, it's only going to help brokers even more.

隨著新政府的上台，這只會為經紀人提供更多幫助。

You watch out.

你當心點。

It's going to help brokers grow, and we're going to keep growing with them.

它將幫助經紀人成長，我們也將與他們一起成長。

And then could you just talk about the interest rate derivative hedges you put on this year?

那麼您能談談今年進行的利率衍生性商品對沖嗎？

Do you expect these hedges to continue in 2025 and are you guys have any internal target on a hedge ratio?

您預計這些對沖會在 2025 年繼續嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

No, those weren't really even hedges.

不，那些其實根本不是樹籬。

The way I looked at it is there's a lot of stuff that we looked at with market volatility to understand while the election process was going on.

我的看法是，在選舉過程中，我們需要觀察很多東西，例如市場波動，以了解情況。

And we pulled some of those.

我們提取了其中的一些。

We wanted to make sure we had some security and some safety on both ways, up and down during the volatility in the markets.

我們希望確保在市場波動期間，無論是上漲或下跌，我們都能獲得一定的安全性。

And that's smart business and we'll continue to do that type of stuff.

這是明智的商業行為，我們會繼續做這種事。

But we pulled that stuff off in December.

但我們在 12 月就完成了這些目標。

And so we do not have that stuff tied to it.

所以我們並沒有將這些東西與之連結起來。

I don't look at them as hedges like me, you said.

您說：“我並不像我一樣將它們視為對沖。”

But that's not how we looked at it, but we looked at it as protecting the business, understanding the markets, understanding volatility, who knew what would happen with presidential elections along with other regulatory things.

但我們並不這麼認為，我們將其視為保護業務、了解市場、了解波動性，誰知道總統大選以及其他監管事項會發生什麼。

And so but we do not have those in place as of December.

但截至 12 月，我們還沒有落實這些措施。

After the election, we made a decision to not go forward with that.

選舉結束後，我們決定不再繼續這樣做。

And at the same time, we can put them back on tomorrow and make different decisions as we meet all the time, but that's not part of the equation for 2025 at this point.

同時，我們可以將它們推遲到明天，並在每次開會時做出不同的決定，但目前這還不是 2025 年計劃的一部分。

Doug Harter, UBS.

瑞銀的道格·哈特（Doug Harter）。

Hoping you could talk a little bit about your outlook for kind of the leverage.

希望您能稍微談談您對槓桿的看法。

Net funding debt went up, and kind of how you think about what is the level of equity you need to run this efficient business.

淨融資債務增加了，而您如何思考經營這家高效企業所需的股權水平。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。

Appreciate the question.

我很感謝你提出這個問題。

We look at all these things every day.

我們每天都會看到這些事情。

CFO, finance team, everyone's on top of all these details.

財務長、財務團隊，每個人都了解所有這些細節。

Net worth is obviously important.

淨資產顯然很重要。

We make income.

我們賺取收入。

We actually pay a great dividend out to all our shareholders, which we'll continue to do.

事實上，我們向所有股東派發了豐厚的股息，而且我們會繼續這樣做。

But you're talking about stuff that I don't think really impacts the business at the level that we should be talking about in this earnings line.

但我認為您所談論的內容對業務的影響並不大，不足以達到我們在收益方面應該討論的水平。

I can go through all the -- of course, we're going to meet all the metrics and all the different things.

我可以介紹所有內容——當然，我們將滿足所有指標和所有不同內容。

But building up capital is important.

但累積資本很重要。

Having liquidity is the most important.

擁有流動性是最重要的。

And we have those things at UWM.

在威斯康辛大學密爾瓦基分校我們就有這些東西。

We'll continue to have those things.

我們將繼續擁有這些東西。

As we earn income, we have access to getting more liquidity with lines of credit, as you know.

如您所知，隨著我們獲得收入，我們就可以透過信用額度獲得更多的流動性。

Selling MSRs.

出售 MSR。

At the same time, we're selling a lot of MSRs.

同時，我們也在銷售大量 MSR。

And you make money on some of these because people are bidding higher and higher numbers because the truth is we're the only ones originating them.

你可以從中賺錢，因為人們的競價越來越高，因為事實是我們是唯一創造這些產品的人。

So in general, our -- all of our ratios are really strong.

所以總的來說，我們所有的比例都非常強勁。

And we feel really good about where we stand.

我們對自己所處的現狀感到非常滿意。

And we moderate every single month, quarter, how we want to think about it.

我們每個月、每季都會審核我們如何看待這個問題。

And we're in a really, really strong position not only for this year but for future years as well.

我們不僅在今年處於非常非常有利的地位，而且在未來幾年也是如此。

Jeff Adelson, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的傑夫·阿德爾森。

Mat, last quarter, you commented on some of the new changes coming through with the new administration in place today.

馬特，上個季度，您對今天新政府上台後帶來的一些新變化發表了評論。

Obviously, we're seeing a lot of news flow coming out each day with different changes at the various agencies like the CFPB.

顯然，我們每天都會看到大量新聞報道，消費者金融保護局（CFPB）等各個機構都發生了不同的變化。

There's been talk of GSE reform, et cetera.

人們一直在討論政府資助企業 (GSE) 改革等等。

Can you just maybe give us an update on your latest views here?

您能否向我們更新您的最新觀點？

What maybe you see coming out on the regulatory political front and how that flows to United and the broader mortgage industry?

您認為監管政策方面會出現什麼變化，以及這會對聯合汽車及更廣泛的抵押貸款行業產生什麼影響？

Yeah.

是的。

No, I think it's all very positive, to be honest with you.

不，說實話，我認為這一切都非常積極。

So President Trump's come in and done a lot of things he said he was going to do.

川普總統上任後就做了很多他說過要做的事情。

I think he's put some really good people in place.

我認為他任命了一些非常優秀的人才。

I think they're not confirmed yet, but the new FHFA Director, who I think comes from the industry, which is a huge success for our industry.

我認為他們還沒有確認，但新任聯邦住房金融局局長，我認為來自這個行業，這對我們行業來說是一個巨大的成功。

New CFPB Director, which will, with a different focus than what they had before.

新任消費者金融保護局局長的工作重點與先前有所不同。

I think these things are massive, massive wins for our industry.

我認為這些事情對我們的產業來說是巨大的勝利。

And I'm extremely bullish on those things for the next three or four years.

我對未來三、四年的發展非常樂觀。

Obviously with President Trump in place.

顯然川普總統仍在任。

President Trump's leading and doing things and doing all the things he says to do with making cuts and different things.

川普總統領導並採取行動，按照他所說的去做所有事情，包括削減開支和其他事情。

I think it's all upside, all positive.

我認為這都是好的、正面的。

The only thing that you question is how does it Impact interest rates, which a lot of people want to talk about.

你唯一質疑的問題是它如何影響利率，這是很多人都想討論的話題。

And so if it impacts interest rates positively, then this is a bull run like you haven't seen probably since 2020, 2021.

因此，如果它對利率產生積極影響，那麼這將是一輪自 2020 年、2021 年以來從未見過的牛市。

If it doesn't impact interest rates positively and interest rates tends to stay where they are, well, it's still a positive uptick.

如果它不會對利率產生積極影響，而且利率趨於維持在當前水平，那麼這仍然是一個積極的上漲。

My expenses will be lower in certain spots, the opportunities will be lower because of some of these better leaders in place.

由於一些更優秀的領導者的存在，我在某些方面的開支會更低，機會也會更少。

And I'll just say, I don't mean disrespectful to the past people, but quite honestly, there was not a great connection to the industry.

我只想說，我並不是不尊重過去的人，但老實說，他們與這個行業並沒有太大的聯繫。

And so it's only better.

因此，情況只會更好。

The new FHFA Director will be better.

新任聯邦住房金融局局長將會表現得更好。

The new HUD Director, Scott, will be better.

新任 HUD 主任 Scott 將會表現得更好。

The new CFPB Director, McKernan will be better.

新任CFPB局長McKernan將會表現得更好。

All these things will be better than we had before.

所有這些都將比我們以前所擁有的更好。

So anyone monitoring our industry will say, the industry is going to have upside and better opportunities than they had the last four years.

因此，任何關注我們行業的人都會說，與過去四年相比，該行業將具有上升空間和更好的機會。

Now the last four years, we did a heck of a job.

過去四年來，我們做了大量的工作。

I feel pretty good about it.

我對此感覺很好。

So if it's going to be better, I'm happy with it.

所以如果它變得更好，我就很高興。

And I think President Trump's doing good things.

我認為川普總統正在做一些好事。

And it's great to have a leader lead and hopefully do good things for not only our industry but America in general.

很高興有一位領導者帶領我們，並希望他不僅能為我們的行業而且能為整個美國帶來好處。

And just in the float strategy from here, I know you've already taken some recent action to increase that.

就目前的浮動策略而言，我知道您最近已經採取了一些行動來增加這個數字。

But can you just maybe give us an update on the thinking for the rest of the year here?

但您能否向我們介紹今年剩餘時間的最新想法？

And would you guys be looking to maybe achieve some of that via acquisitions or other methods?

你們是否希望透過收購或其他方式實現其中的一些目標？

Yeah.

是的。

No, I appreciate it.

不，我很感激。

We look at everything all the time.

我們時時刻刻關注著一切事物。

How do we make things better?

我們如何讓事情變得更好？

Getting more float out there is important, but at the same time, the stock price is so low.

獲得更多流通股很重要，但同時，股價卻很低。

It's hard for me to sell or do anything at this stock price.

以這樣的股價，我很難出售或做任何事情。

It's just silliness.

這太愚蠢了。

Even your price target is silly too.

甚至你的目標價也很愚蠢。

I saw yours as well.

我也看到了你的。

But once again, we're going do better.

但再一次，我們會做得更好。

We're going to keep winning.

我們將繼續獲勝。

And people that buy into it and understand what UWM does will understand that and will continue to grow with us.

那些認同並了解 UWM 所做之事的人們將會理解這一點，並將繼續與我們一起成長。

And so yes, we will have more float.

所以是的，我們將有更多的浮動。

And I have plans and strategies around it.

我對此有計劃和策略。

That's first.

這是第一步。

Second, do we look at acquisitions?

第二，我們是否考慮收購？

Yes.

是的。

I look at everything.

我觀察一切。

And there's opportunities out there.

而且，機會就在那裡。

People want to be part of our team.

人們想成為我們團隊的一部分。

And then third and finally, it's like UWM wins regardless of these things, right?

第三，也是最後一點，無論發生什麼，UWM 都會獲勝，對嗎？

Like people want to talk about the stock price.

就像人們想談論股票價格一樣。

And I kind of tease you guys a little bit about some of the stuff, but it doesn't really matter at the end of the day because we are winning every single month, every single quarter.

我可能在某些事情上跟你們開了一點玩笑，但歸根結底這並不重要，因為我們每個月、每季都在獲勝。

And anyone that invests in UWM gets a massive return from the dividend and at the same time, the growth that we're having.

任何投資 UWM 的人都會從股息中獲得豐厚的回報，同時也能獲得我們所實現的成長。

And so there's nobody that doesn't think that the industry is going to have a better four years than we had the last two or three, right?

因此，沒有人不認為這個行業未來四年的發展將比過去兩三年更好，對嗎？

There's no one.

沒有人。

I don't think there's a human being out there.

我不認為那裡有人。

So if you can just understand that that, hey, the last three years have been the trough, there's no way the next four are going to be worse.

所以，如果你能理解，過去三年是低谷，那麼接下來的四年不可能更糟。

That's factual.

這是事實。

So we're going to grow.

所以我們會成長。

We're going to win.

我們將會勝利。

The stock price will grow.

股價將會上漲。

The float will grow.

浮子將會增長。

Opportunities will grow.

機會將會增多。

UWM will make more money.

UWM 將賺更多的錢。

Brokers will grow.

經紀商將會成長。

Like it's all upside.

好像一切都是好處的。

Better politicians, better politics stuff, better regulatory.

更好的政治家，更好的政治手段，更好的監管。

Like all is better, better, better, better.

就像一切都變得更好，更好，更好，更好。

And so the way I look at it is it's all upside right now.

所以從我的角度來看，現在一切都是好的。

Does that upside happen tomorrow or does it happen in 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, but it's all better than the last three years and there's no smart person on this call or in the room that would say that they don't think it'll be better in the next three to four years.

這種上行會在明天發生，還是在 3 個月、6 個月、12 個月、18 個月後發生，但一切都比過去三年要好，並且在這次電話會議中或在房間裡的任何一個聰明人都不會說他們認為未來三到四年內情況不會更好。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Mikhail Goberman, Citizens.

米哈伊爾·戈伯曼，公民。

Just to follow up on an earlier theme, hypothetical scenario.

只是為了跟進之前的主題，假設情境。

Supposing this bond rally continues down into the 4% range and maybe even down to that sweet spot you mentioned earlier of 375, how do you guys see the interplay between the origination side of your business and the servicing side of your business, specifically how that would affect servicing earnings and valuations there?

假設債券市場的漲勢持續下跌至 4% 左右，甚至可能跌至您之前提到的 375 點最佳點位，那麼您如何看待貴公司業務的發起方和服務方之間的相互作用，特別是這將如何影響服務收益和估值？

No.

不。

Hey, great question.

嘿，好問題。

I love what you're thinking because we talk about that stuff a lot in a hypothetical and positive and optimistic situation where the 10 year drops to 400 or 375 and all of a sudden, the rate dropped with $2.5 trillion, $3 trillion of borrowers that are going to want to refinance and take advantage of while also making homes more affordable for purchases, which is why I think is a great thing for everybody.

我喜歡你的想法，因為我們在假設的、積極的和樂觀的情況下經常談論這些事情，即 10 年期利率下降到 400 或 375，突然之間，利率下降，2.5 萬億美元，3 萬億美元的借款人將想要再融資並利用這一機會，同時也使房屋購買力變得更強，這就是為什麼我認為這對人來說都是一件好事。

Yeah, it's going to be massive.

是的，這將是巨大的。

So what first thing you'll run across, the only thing you're going to run on the interplay between MSR valuations and originations is just a timing issue.

因此，您首先會遇到的事情、您在 MSR 估值和發起之間的相互作用中唯一會遇到的事情只是一個時間問題。

So if that hypothetical rate drop happened March 29, then you're going to have a huge write down of MSRs and you won't have a huge write up of originations until the second, the next quarter.

因此，如果假設的利率下降發生在 3 月 29 日，那麼您的 MSR 將會大幅減記，直到第二季度，也就是下個季度，您才會大幅增加起源金額。

Now if it happens on April 1, as an example, then you're going to -- there's going to be -- it's not going to be a big interplay.

現在，舉個例子，如果它發生在 4 月 1 日，那麼你將會 - 將會 - 它不會產生很大的相互作用。

It's going to be like, hey, we made $800 million this quarter of originations and we had to write down a $500 million of MSRs and it's like, okay, and you understand what it is and you keep replenishing that MSR book.

這就像，嘿，我們本季的發起額為 8 億美元，我們必須記下 5 億美元的 MSR，就像，好吧，你明白它是什麼，然後你不斷補充那本 MSR 帳簿。

So that's how we look at it.

這就是我們的看法。

But I look at it as a huge opportunity because volumes and margins will go up.

但我認為這是一個巨大的機遇，因為銷售和利潤將會上升。

Now other players, back to my comment earlier, we talked about other players have that same dynamic.

現在其他球員，回到我之前的評論，我們談到其他球員也有同樣的動態。

You've got a servicing book, but they're not prepared to do that $60 billion in the quarter at a higher margin to be able to take advantage of it.

你有一個服務訂單，但他們不准備在本季度以更高的利潤率投入 600 億美元來利用它。

So you kind of are going to get flat -- be flat across the board.

因此，您將會變得平坦 — — 全面平坦。

We're prepared to double originations, make the profits huge.

我們準備加倍發起，獲取巨額利潤。

Obviously we have MSR right now, which once again, I don't pay attention to because it doesn't really -- I can't run that.

顯然我們現在有 MSR，但我再次沒有關注它，因為它實際上——我無法運行它。

I can't control that.

我無法控制這一點。

I can control our business and prepare for everything else.

我可以掌控我們的業務，並為其他一切做好準備。

And so we feel really good about that, but that's also why selling MSRs makes sense because you never know what's going to happen.

因此我們對此感到非常高興，但這也是銷售 MSR 的意義所在，因為你永遠不知道會發生什麼。

People don't like selling MSRs because they can't originate them, but we can originate them and we make them every single day.

人們不喜歡銷售 MSR，因為他們無法製造它們，但我們可以製造它們，而且我們每天都在製造它們。

So we feel good about that.

因此我們對此感到很高興。

Best of luck going forward.

祝你未來好運。

And that will wrap up the Q&A portion.

問答部分到此結束。

I would like to turn the call back over to Mat Ishbia for closing comments.

我想將電話轉回給 Mat Ishbia，請他發表最後評論。

Thank you for joining.

感謝您的加入。

Hopefully, you have some valuable information.

希望您能獲得一些有價值的資訊。

We look forward to talking to you in the next quarter.

我們期待下個季度與您交談。

A lot of good things happening.

很多好事發生。

We're very excited about what's happening at UWM and we appreciate the support and partnership with all of you guys.

我們對 UWM 發生的事情感到非常興奮，我們感謝大家的支持和合作。

Have a fantastic day.

祝您有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束，您可以掛斷電話了。