聯合利華 (UL) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We'll now hand over to Richard Williams.

    (操作說明)現在我們將把控制權交給理查威廉斯。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Richard, you should go on mute when you've done the introduction.

    理查德,你介紹完之後應該會把麥克風靜音。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Yes. Got it. Good morning, and welcome to Unilever's half year results. As at Q1, we're presenting our results to you from our respective homes, so please bear with us if things are not as smooth as normal.

    是的。知道了。早安,歡迎收看聯合利華半年業績報告。截至第一季末,我們都是在各自家中向大家報告結果,所以如果情況不如往常順利,請大家多多包涵。

  • Alan will begin with an overview of the business and performance, and will cover each of our 3 divisions before passing to Graeme to cover the regions' results in more detail. Alan will then wrap up with some concluding remarks. We'll keep the prepared remarks around 30 to 40 minutes, leaving plenty of time for Q&A. All of today's webcast is available live, transcribed on the screen as part of our accessibility program.

    Alan 將首先概述業務和業績,並介紹我們的 3 個部門,然後由 Graeme 更詳細地介紹各地區的業績。最後,艾倫將作總結發言。我們將發言時間控制在 30 到 40 分鐘左右,留出充足的時間進行問答環節。今天的所有網路直播內容均可即時觀看,並顯示在螢幕上,這是我們無障礙服務計劃的一部分。

  • First, can I draw your attention to the disclaimer to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. And with that, let me hand over to Alan.

    首先,請容許我提請您注意關於前瞻性陳述和非GAAP指標的免責聲明。那麼,接下來就交給艾倫吧。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, thanks, Richard, and good morning, everybody. The performance in the first half, particularly Q2, I think has shown the true strength of Unilever in these most demanding conditions. We've demonstrated the resilience of the business in our portfolio, in our continuing step-up in operational excellence and in the financial position of the business. We've unlocked new levels of agility in responding to these unprecedented fluctuations in demand and we continue to strengthen the strategic future of the company.

    謝謝你,理查德,大家早安。我認為,上半年的表現,特別是第二季的表現,展現了聯合利華在如此嚴峻的條件下真正的實力。我們在投資組合中展現了業務的韌性,在營運卓越性的持續提升以及業務的財務狀況方面也證明了這一點。我們已在應對這些前所未有的需求波動方面展現出新的敏捷性,並將繼續加強公司的策略未來。

  • Before I get into the results, I would like to use this moment to thank every member of the Unilever team for the outstanding commitment and hard work that they've shown in these most difficult of circumstances. Thanks, guys.

    在公佈結果之前,我想藉此機會感謝聯合利華團隊的每一位成員,感謝他們在如此艱難的情況下所展現出的傑出奉獻精神和辛勤工作。謝謝各位。

  • Now to the results themselves. Underlying sales declined 0.1% in the first half, volume is down 0.3% and price growth of 0.2%. And this essentially flat growth in aggregate masks some very big positives and negatives across our categories and geographies, and we'll explain those in the course of this call.

    現在來看結果本身。上半年基本銷售額下降 0.1%,銷售量下降 0.3%,價格成長 0.2%。總體而言,這種基本持平的成長掩蓋了我們各個類別和地區中一些非常大的利好和利空因素,我們將在本次電話會議中對此進行解釋。

  • Underlying sales growth was led by our developed markets, which grew 2.4%, while emerging markets declined by 1.9%. Graeme is going to share more about what's happening at a country level. This D versus D&E aggregation needs decomposition to understand what's really going on. Underlying operating profit was up -- was EUR 5.1 billion, which is a 3.8% increase versus the same period last year on a constant rate basis. And the business generated underlying free cash flow of EUR 2.9 billion, which is up EUR 1.3 billion versus last year. And that was led by working capital improvements as we focus on managing our receivables with rigor.

    基礎銷售成長主要由已開發市場帶動,成長了 2.4%,而新興市場則下降了 1.9%。格雷姆將分享更多關於國家層面正在發生的事情。需要對這種 D 與 D&E 聚合進行分解,才能真正了解發生了什麼。基本營業利潤成長至 51 億歐元,以固定匯率計算,比去年同期成長 3.8%。該業務產生的自由現金流為 29 億歐元,比去年增加了 13 億歐元。這主要得益於營運資金的改善,因為我們更重視嚴格管理應收帳款。

  • I explained during our Q1 update that we're targeting the business on delivering competitive growth, absolute profit and cash. And to avoid any doubt, I'm repeating again that our margin target outlook is withdrawn both for this year and beyond. Our focus for the year will continue to be volume-led competitive growth, absolute underlying operating profit and cash delivery. Margin is simply a byproduct of this. Underlying EPS increased by 6.4%, and we are maintaining our quarterly dividend in line with the prior period.

    我在第一季業績更新中解釋過,我們的目標是實現具有競爭力的成長、絕對利潤和現金流。為避免任何誤解,我再次重申,我們撤回今年及以後的利潤率目標預期。今年我們將繼續專注於以銷售為主導的競爭性成長、絕對基礎營業利潤和現金流。利潤率只是這過程的副產品。基本每股收益成長了 6.4%,我們將維持與上期相同的季度股息。

  • Now from the start of this COVID-19 crisis, we've been guided by a clear set of priorities that are very much in line with our multi-stakeholder business model: to protect our people, safeguard supply, respond to new patterns of demand, obviously, support our communities and preserve cash and balance sheet strength. The environment has demanded that we move with tremendous speed. Let me just call out a few examples in each of these spaces. We've redeployed 8,300 of our people to focus on areas of high demand space. We've also unlocked 300,000 hours of people's time through our internal digital talent marketplace that we call FLEX. And what that does is it matches employees who have capacity with projects and opportunities to do interesting new types of work.

    自從新冠疫情危機爆發以來,我們一直遵循一套清晰的優先事項,這些事項與我們多方利益相關者的商業模式非常一致:保護我們的員工,保障供應,應對新的需求模式,當然,支持我們的社區,並保持現金和資產負債表的穩健性。環境要求我們以驚人的速度前進。讓我分別舉幾個例子來說明這些面向。我們已重新部署了 8300 名員工,讓他們專注於高需求領域。我們也透過名為 FLEX 的內部數位人才市場,釋放了人們 30 萬小時的時間。這樣做可以將有能力的員工與專案和機會相匹配,讓他們從事有趣的新類型的工作。

  • Data from our personal productivity suite of software shows that we have become more collaborative and productive. We've seen a 41% increase in overall productivity, a 20% increase in internal collaboration time and, interestingly, a 19% increase in external meeting time. Use of our learning system has increased by 150%. We've had over 1,000 leadership town halls, including a weekly global town hall open to everyone. And I think as a result of all of that, we've seen record levels of employee engagement. In fact, our employee well-being score is up by 14%.

    我們個人生產力套件軟體的數據顯示,我們的協作能力和生產力都提升了。我們發現整體生產力提高了 41%,內部協作時間提高了 20%,有趣的是,外部會議時間提高了 19%。我們的學習系統的使用率提高了 150%。我們已經舉辦了 1000 多場領導大會,其中包括每週一次面向所有人的全球大會。我認為正因為如此,我們才看到了員工敬業度達到歷史新高。事實上,我們的員工幸福感得分提高了 14%。

  • Now I think there's been 2 extraordinary achievements from our supply chain in the last few months. The first is how we've managed to keep all 221 of our factory sites running despite fairly radical lockdowns in many countries. And as I'll show in a minute, we've also been able to scale up to support massive surges in demand in some categories and pull back where we've seen major drops. And an important part of this responsiveness has been to reduce our overall complexity. And again, I want to thank our supply chain colleagues for their amazing work.

    我認為在過去的幾個月裡,我們的供應鏈取得了兩個非凡的成就。首先,儘管許多國家採取了相當嚴格的封鎖措施,我們還是設法保持了所有 221 個工廠的正常運作。正如我稍後將要展示的,我們也能夠擴大規模以應對某些類別的巨大需求激增,並在出現大幅下降時進行縮減。而這種快速反應能力的一個重要組成部分就是降低我們的整體複雜性。再次感謝我們供應鏈的同事們所做的出色工作。

  • On demand, our teams have reacted very quickly to capture the new growth opportunities that this crisis has presented. We'll go into that in a lot more detail, but give me -- let me just give you 3 examples. [We've delivered EUR 6 billion] brand. So Lifebuoy, which has been launched now in over 50 new markets in 100 days. We've tapped the opportunity in Foods that's been presented by a radical shift to in-home meal consumption, and you'll see the numbers in a sec. And you know that our ice cream business has been hit hard by a sharp drop in out-of-home consumption. But our teams have moved at speed to drive strong in-home consumption. We've unlocked the innovative Ice Cream Now home delivery e-commerce business. And we're busy activating our 100 days of summer campaign as lockdowns lift. Although looking out the window here Edinburgh, the 100 days of summer are a bit scarce.

    應市場需求,我們的團隊迅速做出反應,抓住了這場危機帶來的新成長機會。我們稍後會更詳細地探討這個問題,但請給我舉三個例子。[我們已交付價值 60 億歐元的] 品牌。因此,力士香皂在 100 天內已在 50 多個新市場推出。我們已經抓住了家庭用餐消費方式發生根本性轉變所帶來的食品產業機遇,稍後您將看到相關數據。您也知道,由於外食消費大幅下降,我們的冰淇淋業務受到了嚴重打擊。但我們的團隊迅速行動,推動了強勁的家庭消費。我們已經開啟了創新的冰淇淋送貨上門電子商務業務。隨著封鎖措施的解除,我們正忙於啟動為期100天的夏季活動。雖然從愛丁堡的窗戶望出去,感覺一年100天的夏天似乎有點少。

  • Communities. We benefited from our product donations. And we're working through the Hygiene & Behaviour Change Coalition tackle COVID in low-income countries through hand hygiene and surface hygiene interactions with Lifebuoy and Domestos. And listen to this, the first phase of the program will reach 330 million people, including more than 100 million health care workers in around 40 countries. And these are great examples of brand do and the clear role of purpose during a pandemic. And I think on cash, the H1 number speaks for itself. We've maintained our financial strength. And I want to underscore that we have not sought COVID-19-related financial support from any governments.

    社區。我們從產品捐贈中受益匪淺。我們正在透過衛生與行為改變聯盟,與力士和多美仕等品牌合作,透過手部衛生和表面衛生互動,在低收入國家應對新冠疫情。聽好了,該計劃的第一階段將惠及 3.3 億人,其中包括約 40 個國家的 1 億多名醫護人員。這些都是品牌行動以及在疫情期間明確使命感所發揮的作用的絕佳例證。我認為就現金流而言,上半年的數據已經說明了一切。我們維持了財務實力。我想強調的是,我們沒有向任何政府尋求與新冠疫情相關的財政支持。

  • The step-up in operational excellence that we're seeing is directly attributable to the 5 growth fundamentals that we set out back in January. They're as important as ever and they are our blueprint for excellent execution. Improving penetration has a direct positive impact on volume growth and volume market share. And we know from experience of many crises over the years that protecting volumes during a recession is key to long-term competitive growth. In fact, brands which grow volume during recessions tend to grow value share over the subsequent 5 years 1.4x faster than those that don't. And we've seen strong recent increases in our household penetration for our brands. We're now just over 50% of our business winning volume market share.

    我們所看到的卓越營運水準的提升,直接歸功於我們一月份提出的 5 項成長基本要素。它們一如既往地重要,它們是我們實現卓越執行的藍圖。提高市場滲透率對銷售成長和市場佔有率有直接的正面影響。多年來,我們從多次危機中吸取了經驗,知道在經濟衰退期間保持銷售是長期競爭成長的關鍵。事實上,在經濟衰退期間銷售成長的品牌,在隨後的 5 年裡,其價值份額的成長速度往往比那些沒有成長的品牌快 1.4 倍。我們看到,近期我們旗下品牌的家庭滲透率大幅提升。目前,我們超過 50% 的業務都贏得了市場份額。

  • Now it's not the time for a lot of complexity in our innovation program. During this crisis, we're focusing on the innovations that bring higher incremental turnover, for example, in hygiene, in driving healthy in-home eating, offering better value products, and innovations that are designed for some of the fast-growing channels, in particular e-commerce. We've already cut over 20% of the tail of innovations, and we've reassessed all of our innovation plans in the light of COVID.

    現在我們的創新計劃還不宜過於複雜。在這場危機期間,我們專注於能夠帶來更高增量營業額的創新,例如在衛生方面、推動健康的居家飲食、提供更有價值的產品,以及為一些快速增長的管道(特別是電子商務)設計的創新。我們已經削減了 20% 以上的創新項目,並且根據 COVID-19 疫情重新評估了我們所有的創新計劃。

  • Online shopping, especially online grocery shopping, will not revert to pre-COVID levels once social restrictions are no longer in place. And I'll give a few more headlines on e-commerce in a moment. But in a recession, the role of price, value and affordability is, of course, key. And consumers are switching brands and pack sizes as people look to shop smart.

    即使社交限制措施不再實施,網上購物,尤其是網上食品雜貨購物,也不會恢復到新冠疫情前的水平。稍後我會再介紹幾個關於電子商務的新聞標題。但在經濟衰退時期,價格、價值和可負擔性的角色當然至關重要。隨著人們越來越注重精明購物,消費者正在更換品牌和包裝規格。

  • It's never been more relevant for brands to demonstrate their positive contribution to society and address the issues that our consumers care out in an authentic way. So we're investing more of our marketing spend on communication, which is explicitly purposeful. I've already talked to our brands like Lifebuoy and Domestos which are communicating the hygiene message, but in doing so, their providing information that's very relevant to COVID-19. And we're seeing that purposeful brands matter more to consumers and perform better, and we believe that's going to be important both during and after the crisis.

    如今,品牌比以往任何時候都更需要展現對社會的正面貢獻,並以真實的方式解決消費者關心的問題。因此,我們將更多的行銷支出投入溝通方面,這是有明確目的的。我已經和我們的品牌,例如力士和多美仕,談過了,它們都在傳遞衛生訊息,但它們提供的資訊與 COVID-19 非常相關。我們發現,有使命感的品牌對消費者來說更重要,表現也更好,我們相信這在危機期間和危機之後都會非常重要。

  • At the same time as demonstrating our resilience and agility, we've been taking actions to strengthen Unilever for the longer term and drive our strategic change agenda. We've announced the proposals to unify our dual-headed legal structure to create a simpler company with greater strategic flexibility. After a comprehensive review over the last 18 months, the Board continues to believe that it is in the long-term interest of Unilever and our many stakeholders to modernize our complex legal structure. It's 90 years old and it's time to put Unilever on a level playing field with other companies so that we're best positioned for future success.

    在展現我們的韌性和敏捷性的同時,我們也一直在採取行動,以增強聯合利華的長期實力,並推進我們的策略變革議程。我們已公佈了統一雙頭法律結構的提案,旨在創建一個更簡單、更具戰略靈活性的公司。經過過去 18 個月的全面審查,董事會仍然認為,對我們複雜的法律結構進行現代化改造符合聯合利華及其眾多利益相關者的長遠利益。聯合利華已經成立90年了,現在是時候讓聯合利華與其他公司站在同一起跑線上,以便我們能夠更好地為未來的成功做好準備。

  • As part of shaping our portfolio, it was actually in the second quarter that we completed the acquisition of GSK's health food drinks portfolio in India, Bangladesh and 20 other predominantly Asian markets. We've acquired those iconic brands, Horlicks and Boost, and is very much in line with our strategy of enhancing our presence in healthy nutrition.

    作為我們產品組合規劃的一部分,我們實際上在第二季度完成了對葛蘭素史克在印度、孟加拉和其他 20 個主要亞洲市場的健康食品飲料產品的收購。我們收購了 Horlicks 和 Boost 這兩個標誌性品牌,這與我們加強在健康營養領域影響力的策略非常吻合。

  • In January, we announced, as a conclusion of our overall portfolio review, that we would conduct a strategic review of our global tea business. It includes leading brands like Lipton, Brooke Bond, PG Tips, and the review is [every imaginable]. We will retain the key business in India and Indonesia, and the partnership interests in our ready-to-drink tea joint ventures. The balance of Unilever's tea brands and geographies and all of our tea estates have a very exciting future, but this potential can be best achieved, we believe, as a separate entity. And a process will now begin to achieve this separation, which is expected to conclude by the end of 2021. And just for noting, the tea business that we'll separate generated revenues last year of EUR 2 billion.

    今年一月,我們宣布,作為整體投資組合審查的結論,我們將對全球茶葉業務進行策略性審查。它包括立頓、布魯克邦德、PG Tips 等領先品牌,評論涵蓋了[所有你能想像到的]內容。我們將保留在印度和印尼的關鍵業務,以及在即飲茶合資企業中的合夥權益。聯合利華旗下各茶葉品牌與地域的平衡,以及我們所有的茶園,都擁有非常令人興奮的未來,但我們相信,作為一個獨立的實體,這種潛力才能得到最好的發揮。現在將開始實施分離程序,預計將於 2021 年底完成。另外值得一提的是,我們將單獨列出的茶葉業務去年的收入為 20 億歐元。

  • In addition, while the world continues to grapple with the devastating effects of COVID-19 and issues of escalating inequality, it's more important than ever that we don't lose sight of the climate crisis and a very real and serious threats that it creates for all of us. Climate change, nature degradation, biodiversity decline, water scarcity, they're deeply interconnected problems, and we're committed to find ways to tackle them simultaneously.

    此外,當世界繼續努力應對 COVID-19 的毀滅性影響和日益加劇的不平等問題時,我們比以往任何時候都更不能忽視氣候危機及其對我們所有人造成的非常真實和嚴重的威脅。氣候變遷、自然環境惡化、生物多樣性減少、水資源短缺,這些都是相互關聯的問題,我們致力於找到同時解決這些問題的方法。

  • So in June, we announced a wide-ranging set of commitments to help fight climate change and to protect and regenerate nature. And these commitments, they build on our target to have the greenhouse gas footprint of our products across the entire value chain by 2030. They include achieving net zero emissions from all of our products by 2039, which is 11 years ahead of the 2050 Paris Agreement deadline. And to accelerate action in our brands, over the next 10 years, we'll collectively invest EUR 1 billion in a new dedicated climate and nature fund. And these commitments are the next step in our vision to be the most sustainable global business. In fact, our multi-stakeholder model remains as important as ever.

    因此,在六月,我們宣布了一系列廣泛的承諾,以幫助應對氣候變化,保護和恢復自然。這些承諾建立在我們力爭 2030 年實現產品在整個價值鏈中溫室氣體足跡的目標之上。其中包括到 2039 年實現所有產品淨零排放,比《巴黎協定》規定的 2050 年最後期限提早 11 年。為了加速旗下品牌的行動,未來 10 年,我們將共同投資 10 億歐元設立一個新的專門用於氣候和自然的基金。這些承諾是我們實現成為最具永續性的全球企業的願景的下一步。事實上,我們的多方利害關係人模式仍然像以往一樣重要。

  • Again, before I turn to the performance of the divisions, I'd like to show how COVID-19 is impacting the different categories in our portfolio using category groupings, which are the best way to understand our performance in the period. So this chart shows our H1 and Q2 growth rates. In the following slides, I'll focus in on Q2, but here, we're giving both data points because Q2 is the first full quarter that's seen the complete impact of COVID-19 on the portfolio. And the variations in demand are stark.

    再次強調,在分析各部門的表現之前,我想先透過類別分組來展示 COVID-19 是如何影響我們投資組合中的不同類別的,因為這是了解我們在此期間業績的最佳方式。這張圖表顯示了我們上半年和第二季的成長率。在接下來的幻燈片中,我將重點介紹第二季度,但在這裡,我們同時給出兩個數據點,因為第二季度是第一個完整季度,全面反映了 COVID-19 對投資組合的影響。需求變化非常顯著。

  • Our hygiene portfolio, which is made up of home cleaning and skin cleansing, had a turnover of EUR 4 billion in the first half. It grew by 17% in the half and 26% in Q2. The other parts of the portfolio where we were able to drive a very strong Q2 growth is the sizable in-home Foods & Refreshment business. You see that at the bottom, and that grew by 17%.

    我們的衛生用品組合(包括家居清潔和皮膚清潔產品)上半年營業額達 40 億歐元。上半年成長了 17%,第二季成長了 26%。在第二季實現強勁成長的其他業務部門中,規模龐大的家庭食品和飲料業務尤為突出。您可以看到底部的數據,它增長了 17%。

  • Now by contrast, over on the right-hand side of the chart, our Food Solutions and out-of-home ice cream businesses together declined 42%. And those were severely impacted, obviously, by lockdown restrictions. So you can see underneath this rather bland, flat top line (inaudible) volatility at category level. And Graeme will give a similar flavor of the dynamics by country.

    相比之下,圖表右側的食品解決方案和戶外冰淇淋業務合計下降了 42%。很顯然,這些都受到了封鎖限制的嚴重影響。所以你可以看到,在這條相當平淡、平坦的頂線(聽不清楚)下面,類別層面存在著波動性。格雷姆將從不同國家的角度,對這種動態進行類似的分析。

  • Let's move to our divisional performance. Within Beauty & Personal Care, our skin cleansing business grew by 27% as we quickly responded to the demand for hand hygiene products, and by that, we mean liquid hand wash and hand sanitizer. We had a very small hand sanitizer business prior to the outbreak of COVID-19. We only had 2 manufacturing sites. But by the end of the first half, our hand hygiene business is already larger than that of the market leader last year in the whole of 2019. It really is a truly remarkable example of speed and teamwork. We now have over 60 sites producing hand sanitizers. We've stepped up capacity across multiple brands by a factor of, believe it or not, 600x in just 5 months and we've launched sanitizers in 65 new markets.

    接下來我們來看部門業績。在美容及個人護理領域,我們的皮膚清潔業務成長了 27%,因為我們迅速回應了對洗手液和洗手消毒液等洗手液等手部衛生產品的需求。在新冠疫情爆發之前,我們經營一家規模很小的洗手液公司。我們當時只有兩個生產基地。但到上半年結束時,我們的手部衛生業務規模已經超過了市場領導者去年全年的規模。這真是速度與團隊合作的絕佳典範。我們現在有超過60個生產洗手液的工廠。短短 5 個月內,我們旗下多個品牌的產能提高了 600 倍(難以置信吧),我們在 65 個新市場推出了消毒產品。

  • Our Prestige portfolio did decline by 10% in the quarter, and that was impacted by health and beauty channel closures in many markets that normally make up 2/3 of our sales. Our Prestige business has been pivoting to e-commerce at pace, and that's growing strongly, but not enough to fully offset the impact of retail door closures. And for the rest of Beauty & Personal Care, there has been a decrease in usage in some more discretionaries. For example, hair wash and care, hair styling, skincare and deodorants have all been impacted by lockdown living as people have not been socializing or going out to work. And so that simply mean fewer personal care occasions.

    本季我們的高端產品組合下降了 10%,這主要是由於許多市場關閉了健康和美容管道,而這些管道通常占我們銷售額的 2/3。我們的高端業務一直在快速轉型電子商務,並且發展勢頭強勁,但這還不足以完全抵消零售門市關閉的影響。至於美容和個人護理用品的其他部分,一些非必需品的使用量有所下降。例如,由於人們無法進行社交活動或外出工作,洗髮和護理、髮型設計、護膚和除臭劑等都受到了封鎖生活的影響。因此,這意味著個人護理次數會減少。

  • With such big variations and especially when looking at competitive performance, we really need to look at subsegment levels because there's such a wide range of market growth rates across categories and subsegments. So on the right, you'll see we break down skin cleansing into bars, body wash and hand hygiene, that's made up of liquid hand soap and hand sanitizers. We have been able to grow ahead of the market in all those subsegments. But just look at the incredible variation in growth rates. Similarly, in the hair care category, we're seeing different impacts in different subsegments, with particularly sharp drops in the hairstyling segment where we over-indexed.

    由於差異如此之大,尤其是在檢視競爭表現時,我們真的需要關注細分市場層面,因為不同類別和細分市場的市場成長率差異如此之大。所以在右邊,你會看到我們將皮膚清潔分為香皂、沐浴露和手部衛生用品,其中手部衛生用品包括洗手液和洗手消毒液。我們在所有這些細分市場中都實現了領先於市場的成長。但看看成長率的巨大差異就知道了。同樣,在護髮類別中,我們看到不同細分市場受到的影響也不同,其中我們投入過多的美髮造型細分市場出現了特別嚴重的下滑。

  • Right. Moving to F&R, Foods & Refreshment. As anticipated, out-of-home Foods & Refreshment declined, in fact, by 42%. That was due simply to the closure of out-of-home channels during lockdown: restaurants, canteen, leisure sites, travel hubs, tourist destinations and so on. Our foodservice business declined by 56% and out-of-home ice cream by 35%. Though I have to stress that these remain fundamentally strong and strategically attractive businesses that we will -- that do expect will return to good levels of growth when leisure and eating-out habits return to normal.

    正確的。移至 F&R,食品和飲料。正如預期的那樣,外出用餐和飲料的銷售額實際上下降了 42%。這完全是由於封鎖期間戶外通路關閉所致:餐廳、食堂、休閒場所、交通樞紐、旅遊景點等等。我們的餐飲服務業務下降了 56%,外出購買冰淇淋的業務下降了 35%。不過我必須強調,這些企業本質上依然強勁,具有戰略吸引力,我們預計,當休閒和外出就餐習慣恢復正常時,這些企業將恢復到良好的增長水平。

  • In contrast, I think the hidden jewel in the portfolio has been our in-home Foods & Refreshment portfolio that has grown by 17% in the quarter as consumers have eaten more soups, used more meal kits and accompanied their meals with mayonnaise and ice cream as dessert. Restricted living has meant that consumer are spending more time at home, and so we saw an increase in sales of food for scratch cooking as well as in home tea and ice cream. And that's been especially true in our U.S. business.

    相比之下,我認為投資組合中真正的亮點是我們的家庭食品和飲料組合,該組合在本季度增長了 17%,因為消費者喝了更多湯,使用了更多餐包,並在用餐時搭配蛋黃醬和冰淇淋作為甜點。受限的生活方式意味著消費者在家的時間更多,因此我們看到用於自行烹飪的食品以及家用茶和冰淇淋的銷量都有所增長。這一點在我們的美國業務中尤其如此。

  • Reflecting the shift that I already mentioned to online shopping and media consumption, Knorr's digital recipe inspiration campaigns and our Recipedia website has really helped drive e-commerce conversion and strong double-digit sales growth. In fact, our Foods & Refreshment e-commerce business-to-consumer business grew by 139% in the second quarter, and that was driven by our ice cream home delivery. Ice cream, now an e-commerce business.

    正如我之前提到的,人們的購物和媒體消費方式已經發生了轉變,Knorr 的數位食譜靈感活動和我們的 Recipedia 網站確實幫助推動了電子商務轉換率和兩位數的強勁銷售成長。事實上,我們食品飲料電子商務B2C業務在第二季度成長了139%,這主要得益於我們的冰淇淋送貨上門服務。冰淇淋,現在也發展成電子商務了。

  • And lastly, to Home Care, where home and hygiene sales were up 24% in the quarter, with increased consumer demand for household cleaning products, such as Cif surface cleaners, which grew by 20%. And working with environmental health experts, Domestos bleach is educating consumers about the targeted cleaning of high-touch surfaces in the home to help prevent the spread of COVID, and Domestos grew by 37%.

    最後是家庭護理,該季度家庭和衛生用品銷售額增長了 24%,消費者對家用清潔產品(如 Cif 表面清潔劑)的需求增加,增加了 20%。多美仕漂白水與環境健康專家合作,教育消費者如何有針對性地清潔家中經常接觸的表面,以幫助防止 COVID 的傳播,多美仕的銷量增長了 37%。

  • Within laundry, fabric solutions declined slightly, impacted by the geographical lockdowns in Asia. Although interestingly, future formats such as capsules and liquids did continue to grow. And I have to give a shout-out to our cleaning -- Seventh Gen which saw strong double-digit volume-led growth. Fabric sensations did decline in low single digits.

    在洗衣領域,織物解決方案略有下降,受到亞洲地區封鎖的影響。不過有趣的是,膠囊和液體等未來劑型確實持續成長。我還要特別表揚一下我們的清潔業務——第七代,該業務實現了強勁的兩位數銷量成長。織物觸感確實以個位數百分比下降了。

  • So last chart before I hand over to Graeme. We're also, as I mentioned, seeing significant channel shifts as consumer's behavior changes as a result of COVID-19. And I want to just give a little bit of a drill down on e-commerce, which continues to accelerate. Online shopping is here to stay even after social restrictions are no longer in place. E-commerce represented over 8% of the business in the first half, and that's up from 6% in 2019. Sales on e-commerce grew by 49% in the half, 62% in the second quarter. And that includes the drag on growth from foodservice e-commerce.

    這是我交給格雷姆之前的最後一張圖表。正如我之前提到的,隨著 COVID-19 疫情導致消費者行為變化,我們也看到了管道的重大轉變。我想稍微深入探討電子商務,它正持續加速發展。即使社交限制措施取消後,網上購物也將繼續存在。上半年電子商務占公司業務的 8% 以上,高於 2019 年的 6%。上半年電子商務銷售額成長了 49%,第二季成長了 62%。這其中也包括餐飲服務電子商務對成長的拖累。

  • We've really seen strong growth across all e-commerce channels, with acceleration coming in the second quarter. So e-B2B, for example, the Compra Agora business in Brazil that we've explained several times, that grew by 78% in Q2. Pure play e-commerce grew by 58%, and omnichannel grew by a remarkable 120%.

    我們看到所有電子商務管道都實現了強勁增長,並且在第二季度加速成長。例如,我們多次介紹的巴西 Compra Agora 業務,在 e-B2B 領域,第二季成長了 78%。純電商成長了 58%,全通路電商更是實現了驚人的 120% 的成長。

  • Through a geography lens, we saw e-commerce growing strongly in all of the key markets, particularly in the second quarter, up 48% in Brazil, 59% in China and I think 177% in North America. E-commerce now represents 12% of North American sales in the first half, and that's doubled from 6% in just 2018. In line with the 5 growth fundamentals that I mentioned earlier, we are ensuring our innovation and marketing activity are well-designed for e-commerce. And you can see a few examples here, our Cif ecorefill range does provide the value density that makes it perfect for e-commerce.

    從地理角度來看,我們看到電子商務在所有主要市場都實現了強勁增長,尤其是在第二季度,巴西增長了 48%,中國增長了 59%,我認為北美增長了 177%。電子商務目前佔北美上半年銷售額的 12%,比 2018 年的 6% 翻了一番。根據我之前提到的 5 個成長基本要素,我們正在確保我們的創新和行銷活動能夠很好地適應電子商務。您可以在這裡看到一些例子,我們的 Cif 環保填充系列確實提供了高性價比,使其成為電子商務的完美選擇。

  • As I mentioned a couple of times, we're tapping into the eat-at-home meal delivery occasions with our Ice Cream Now program. And we have changed almost all of our advertising messages, both the content and the media choices. We've stopped out-of-home advertising. We've eased back advertising to people in severely lockdown areas who are unable to shop. But by contrast, our brands are communicating digitally with messages that are relevant for lockdown living. Things like stay inspired, home barbecue seasons and the summer staycation messages that I'm sure many of you will be familiar with.

    正如我之前多次提到的,我們的「冰淇淋速遞」計畫正在迎合人們在家用餐的送餐需求。我們幾乎改變了所有的廣告訊息,包括內容和媒體選擇。我們已停止戶外廣告投放。我們已逐步減少對處於嚴格封鎖狀態、無法購物的地區的人們的廣告投放。但與之形成鮮明對比的是,我們的品牌正在透過數位化方式傳遞與居家隔離生活相關的訊息。例如保持靈感、居家燒烤季以及夏季宅度假之類的建議,我相信你們很多人都會很熟悉。

  • So with that, let me hand over to Graeme to talk in a bit more detail about the regions and our financial results in a bit more detail. Graeme?

    那麼,接下來就交給格雷姆,讓他更詳細地談談各個地區的情況以及我們的財務表現。格雷姆?

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Alan. Before I cover our geographies, I would like to say a few words about the current environment. The WHO has again reported a record increase in COVID-19 cases across the globe, with confirmed daily cases per million still trending up in the big geographies of the world. There are now more than 12 million cases globally with over 5,000 people a day losing their lives to this terrible disease.

    謝謝你,艾倫。在介紹我們的地理環境之前,我想先談談目前的環境。世界衛生組織再次報告稱,全球新冠肺炎病例數量創下新高,世界主要地區的每日每百萬人確診病例數仍在上升。目前全球已有超過1200萬例病例,每天有超過5,000人死於這種可怕的疾病。

  • The risks presented by the pandemic have not reduced, and many experts are warning of the risks of a second wave. And while the search for a vaccine goes on, we will perhaps all need to be prepared for sort of 2 steps forward 1 step back dynamic in the months ahead.

    疫情帶來的風險並未降低,許多專家警告第二波疫情的風險。在疫苗研發工作持續進行的同時,未來幾個月我們或許都需要做好準備,迎接類似「前進兩步,後退一步」的動態變化。

  • Now with our wide geographic breadth, we're often asked how we see the macro environment developing over the coming months and years. And so let me offer a few comments on that subject. The only certainty at the moment in economic forecasting is that there's a huge range of possible outlooks, each containing differing assumptions, mostly driven by the scale and duration of lockdowns, the impact of restricted living conditions on consumer spending as lockdowns are eased, as well as ultimately the time line for a vaccine.

    現在,由於我們的業務遍及全球,我們經常被問到如何看待未來幾個月和幾年內的宏觀環境發展。所以,我想就此發表幾點看法。目前經濟預測中唯一可以確定的是,存在著各種各樣的可能前景,每種前景都包含不同的假設,主要取決於封鎖的規模和持續時間、隨著封鎖放鬆,受限的生活條件對消費者支出的影響,以及最終疫苗的研發時間表。

  • Now Unilever's in-market agility and the strength of local leadership is an important asset as we navigate through this widely varied picture of uncertainty and volatility. We believe that talk of a quick recovery is definitely at the optimistic end of the scale. A deep global recession has already started, and consumer habits are changing quite dramatically. We're seeing a rapid rise in unemployment across markets. And even for those with jobs, we know some consumers will choose to save more.

    如今,在應對當前充滿不確定性和波動性的複雜局面時,聯合利華的市場彈性和在地領導力量是一項重要的資產。我們認為,談論經濟快速復甦絕對是過於樂觀的說法。全球經濟深度衰退已經開始,消費者的習慣也正在發生巨大變化。我們看到各市場的失業率都在快速上升。即使是那些有工作的人,我們也知道有些消費者會選擇多存錢。

  • In a recession, the role of price, value and affordability will be paramount in driving the penetration of our brands, and we know that this is, frankly, an area of strength and deep experience for Unilever. Currencies and commodities have been very volatile in the first half, and we've seen an acceleration of currency depreciation through the second quarter. I'll come back to the impact of currency on our first half results and our currency outlook for 2020 a little later on.

    在經濟衰退時期,價格、價值和可負擔性將在推動我們品牌滲透方面發揮至關重要的作用,而我們知道,坦白說,這是聯合利華的優勢領域和深厚經驗。上半年貨幣和大宗商品價格波動劇烈,第二季貨幣貶值速度加快。稍後我會再談到匯率對我們上半年業績的影響以及我們對 2020 年的匯率展望。

  • The spread of COVID-19, combined with the lockdowns and restrictions that have been implemented in many countries, has led to significant changes in the operating environment in our markets. As Alan has just said, the performance during the first half really shows the true strength of Unilever. Lockdowns have varied in severity, with some having a more acute impact on the supply and accessibility of goods, particularly those in India and in China. China was the first of our markets to be impacted by COVID-19, entering lockdown in January. Sales slowed significantly during the lockdown period, but with some recovery after April as the economy in China opened back up.

    新冠肺炎疫情的蔓延,加上許多國家實施的封鎖和限制措施,導致我們市場的經營環境發生了重大變化。正如艾倫剛才所說,上半場的表現真正展現了聯合利華的真正實力。各地的封鎖措施嚴重程度不一,有些措施對商品的供應和取得造成了更嚴重的衝擊,尤其是在印度和中國。中國是我們市場中第一個受到新冠肺炎疫情影響的國家,於1月進入封鎖狀態。疫情封鎖期間銷售額大幅下降,但隨著中國經濟在 4 月後重新開放,銷售額回升。

  • In most other major markets, sales patterns in January and February were quite normal and COVID-19 didn't impact until March onwards. Brazil was impacted later than other major markets, with the effects primarily being felt in the second quarter, exacerbating conditions in a region where they were already very challenging.

    在其他多數主要市場,1月和2月的銷售模式相當正常,新冠肺炎疫情直到3月才開始產生影響。巴西受到的影響晚於其他主要市場,其影響主要在第二季顯現,加劇了該地區原本就非常嚴峻的情況。

  • Let me turn now to the regions in a little more detail. Underlying sales declined by 2.7% in Asia and at RUB, with volume decline of 2.9% and positive pricing of 0.2%. Volumes were impacted by lockdowns of varying severity imposed across the region. China was the first market to enter lockdown, as I said, and that ran from January. It was eased in April. And then China declined in the first quarter. Following the relaxation of restrictions, China then returned to mid-single-digit growth in the second quarter, although foodservice remained challenging.

    現在讓我更詳細地介紹一下各個地區的情況。亞洲及盧布市場的基礎銷售額下降了 2.7%,銷量下降了 2.9%,價格上漲了 0.2%。該地區各地實施的封鎖措施嚴重程度不一,對交易量造成了影響。正如我所說,中國是第一個進入封鎖狀態的市場,封鎖從1月開始。四月有所緩解。然後中國在第一季出現下滑。隨著限制措施的放鬆,中國經濟在第二季度恢復了中個位數成長,但餐飲服務業仍面臨挑戰。

  • India and the Philippines declined as strict lockdowns were imposed from March onwards, disrupting the flow of goods and negatively impacting consumption of discretionary Personal Care categories as consumers stayed at home. Market growth in India had already been slowing prior to the spread of COVID-19, and the market was further impacted by the introduction of a strict national lockdown at the end of March. This national lockdown continued until early June when it was then followed by further regional lockdowns. Thailand was particularly negatively impacted from reduced tourism. Regional lockdowns were imposed in Indonesia as COVID-19 spread. And while growth was positive over the half year, sales declined in the second quarter.

    印度和菲律賓從 3 月起實施嚴格的封鎖措施,導致貨物流通受阻,消費者待在家中,非必需個人護理用品的消費受到負面影響,兩國經濟因此下滑。在新冠肺炎疫情蔓延之前,印度市場成長就已經放緩,而3月底實施的嚴格全國封鎖進一步影響了市場。全國封鎖一直持續到6月初,之後又出現了更多地區性的封鎖。泰國受旅遊業下滑的影響尤為嚴重。隨著 COVID-19 的傳播,印尼實施了區域封鎖。儘管上半年實現了正成長,但第二季銷售額卻有所下降。

  • Latin America grew by 1.9%, with volumes down 0.8% and pricing of 2.8%. The impact of COVID-19 in the region was concentrated in the second half of the period. Brazil and Mexico grew in the first quarter, but volumes declined in the second quarter as COVID-19 spread. Mexico declined low single digits in the first half of the year, following a mid-single-digit decline in the second quarter. Brazil grew low single digits in the first half with a low single-digit decline in the second quarter. Volumes grew in Argentina throughout the first half of the year, driven by in-home foods consumption against a backdrop of a prolonged and quite strict lockdown.

    拉丁美洲市場成長了 1.9%,但銷量下降了 0.8%,價格下降了 2.8%。新冠疫情對該地區的影響主要集中在後半段時期。巴西和墨西哥在第一季實現了成長,但隨著 COVID-19 疫情蔓延,第二季銷量有所下降。墨西哥經濟在今年上半年出現個位數百分比的下滑,此前第二季度也出現了個位數百分比的下滑。巴西經濟上半年實現了個位數低成長,但第二季度出現了個位數低下降。今年上半年,阿根廷的食品銷售持續成長,主要得益於長期且相當嚴格的封鎖措施下,家庭食品消費的增加。

  • Underlying sales growth in North America was 7.3%, with 7.7% from volume and a decline of 0.4% from price. This H1 growth includes a negative impact of around 3 percentage points from our foodservice and Prestige businesses, which were impacted by channel closures. The decline in these businesses was more than offset by increased consumption of in-home foods and ice cream as well as hygiene products, consumption which was sustained throughout the second quarter. Our Foods & Refreshment division, excluding the impact of foodservice, grew by 23% in Q2. Our supply chain responded quickly to increase capacity for products experiencing big surges in demand.

    北美地區基礎銷售額成長7.3%,其中銷量成長7.7%,價格下降0.4%。上半年的成長包含了餐飲服務和高端業務約 3 個百分點的負面影響,這些業務受到了通路關閉的影響。這些行業的下滑被家庭食品、冰淇淋以及衛生用品消費量的增加所抵消,而且這種消費在第二季度持續增長。剔除餐飲服務的影響,我們的食品和飲料部門在第二季度成長了 23%。我們的供應鏈迅速做出反應,提高了產能,以滿足需求激增的產品。

  • In Europe, underlying sales declined 1.8%, with negative volumes of 1% and price down 0.8%. Negative volumes in Europe were a result of significant declines in the out-of-home ice cream and foodservice channels as well as some reduced demand for Personal Care products. The most severely impacted countries were Italy and Spain, where increased demand for in-home eating and hygiene products only partially offset the negative impact of prolonged lockdown periods on tourism and out-of-home consumption, especially for ice cream. In the U.K. and Germany, however, increased demand in in-home eating and hygiene products more than offset declines in negatively impacted categories.

    在歐洲,基礎銷售額下降了 1.8%,銷量下降了 1%,價格下降了 0.8%。歐洲銷售下滑是由於外食冰淇淋和餐飲服務管道大幅下降,以及個人護理產品需求減少所致。受影響最嚴重的國家是義大利和西班牙,儘管居家飲食和衛生用品的需求增加,但長期封鎖對旅遊業和外出消費(尤其是冰淇淋)造成的負面影響僅部分抵消。然而,在英國和德國,家庭飲食和衛生用品需求的成長超過了受負面影響類別需求的下降。

  • Turnover for the first half was EUR 26 billion, a decline of 1.6% versus prior year, driven by currency. Underlying sales growth declined by 0.1%. Acquisitions and disposals increased turnover by 1.1%, with acquisitions contributing 1.2%. In the second quarter of the year, we completed the acquisitions of health food drinks portfolio of GlaxoSmithKline in India, Bangladesh and around 20 other predominantly Asian markets. During the second quarter, we also closed the transaction to buy out the minority shareholders of our subsidiary in Malaysia. Net currency-related items reduced turnover by 2.5%. And based on spot rates, we would expect a negative currency translation impact of around 4% on turnover.

    上半年營業額為260億歐元,較上年同期下降1.6%,主要受匯率影響。基礎銷售成長下降了0.1%。收購和處置使營業額增加了 1.1%,其中收購貢獻了 1.2%。今年第二季度,我們完成了對葛蘭素史克在印度、孟加拉以及其他約 20 個主要亞洲市場的健康食品飲料產品組合的收購。第二季度,我們也完成了馬來西亞子公司少數股東的收購交易。貨幣相關淨項目導致營業額減少 2.5%。根據即期匯率,我們預期匯率變動將對營業額產生約 4% 的負面影響。

  • Underlying operating margin increased by 50 basis points to 19.8%. Gross margin reduced by 30 basis points, with some impact from volume deleverage in our out-of-home businesses. The major fluctuations between countries and categories, which we've talked through earlier, have resulted in a negative mix impact on gross margin of around 40 basis points in the half and 90 basis points in the second quarter.

    基本營業利潤率提高 50 個基點至 19.8%。毛利率下降了 30 個基點,部分原因是戶外餐飲業務銷售下降。我們先前討論過的各國和各品類之間的重大波動,導致上半年毛利率受到約 40 個基點的負面影響,第二季度毛利率受到約 90 個基點的負面影響。

  • We've also incurred additional costs to adapt and run our supply chain safely and hygienically, and ensure the continuity of our operations with new sourcing routes and increased distribution costs and additional temporary labor to cover absenteeism. Taken together, these impacts reduced gross margin by around 40 basis points in the first half and 65 basis points in the second quarter, and we expect that they will continue at least for the balance of this year.

    為了安全衛生地調整和營運我們的供應鏈,並透過新的採購路線、增加的配送成本以及額外的臨時勞動力來彌補缺勤,確保我們業務的連續性,我們也產生了額外的成本。綜合來看,這些影響導致上半年毛利率下降約 40 個基點,第二季毛利率下降約 65 個基點,我們預計這種情況至少會持續到今年年底。

  • Brand and marketing spend was down 100 basis points. We've been adapting and reallocating our BMI spend very dynamically on a weekly basis as the status of country lockdowns has changed and as consumer habits have altered. We reduced spend in channels, geographies and categories where local conditions meant that investment would have been wasted, but have diverted investment to support the many growth opportunities. For example, in Q2, we dialed back BMI in foodservice by 40% due to restaurant closures and in ice cream by 30% due to the significant declines in out-of-home ice cream consumption. But we protected and, in some cases, increased our investment in skin cleansing and hygiene. Taking a geographic lens, we dialed back BMI by 15% in China in Q1, but then increased spend by 16% in Q2 as the country came out of lockdown.

    品牌和行銷支出下降了100個基點。隨著各國封鎖狀態的變化和消費者習慣的改變,我們每週都會非常動態地調整和重新分配 BMI 支出。我們減少了在通路、地區和類別的支出,因為當地情況意味著投資將會浪費,但我們已將投資轉移到支持眾多成長機會。例如,在第二季度,由於餐廳關閉,我們將餐飲服務業的 BMI 下調了 40%;由於外食冰淇淋消費量大幅下降,我們將冰淇淋的 BMI 下調了 30%。但是,我們保護了對皮膚清潔和衛生的投入,並且在某些情況下,還增加了投入。從地理角度來看,我們在第一季將中國市場的 BMI 支出減少了 15%,但隨著中國解除封鎖,我們在第二季將支出增加了 16%。

  • We've been very focused on ensuring that the quality of our communication has not been compromised. For example, we've used more agile ad creation techniques, reediting existing advertising to be more relevant for the current environment. And this, combined with a softening in total advertising spend across markets, has increased efficiency in advertising. Let me be clear, we are in no way BMI-constrained. We've been very dynamic with our investment and have deliberately kept some of our powder dry in managing the challenges of Q2. And in the second half of the year, we plan to invest heavily as lockdowns ease, consumers learn to live with COVID, and we expect significant investment to support brand campaigns and product innovations tailored to this environment. Overheads increased by 20 basis points, and that included an adverse currency mix.

    我們一直非常注重確保溝通品質不受影響。例如,我們採用了更靈活的廣告創作技術,重新編輯現有廣告,使其更符合當前環境。而同時,各市場廣告總支出有所下降,提高了廣告效率。我要明確說明,我們絕不以BMI為標準。我們在投資方面一直非常靈活,並且有意保留了一些資金來應對第二季的挑戰。今年下半年,隨著封鎖措施的放鬆,消費者逐漸學會與新冠病毒共存,我們計劃加大投資力度,並預計將有大量投資用於支持品牌推廣活動和針對當前環境的產品創新。間接費用增加了 20 個基點,其中包括不利的匯率波動。

  • Underlying earnings per share increased by 6.4% at current rates and by 10.1% at constant rates. Operational performance contributed 3.9% to EPS. Finance costs positively impacted EPS by 2.4%, driven by lower debt, one-off interest income in Brazil and India and higher interest costs in the prior year as a result of a EUR 40 million impact from the revaluation of cash balances that we held in Zimbabwe following the devaluation of the new Zimbabwe dollar. We expect the interest rate on net debt to be below 3% in 2020.

    以當前匯率計算,每股基本收益成長了 6.4%;以固定匯率計算,每股基本收益成長了 10.1%。營運表現對每股收益貢獻了 3.9%。財務成本對每股收益產生了 2.4% 的正面影響,這主要得益於債務減少、巴西和印度的一次性利息收入,以及上一年由於津巴布韋元貶值後,我們在津巴布韋持有的現金餘額重估產生了 4000 萬歐元的影響,導致利息成本增加。我們預計2020年淨債務利率將低於3%。

  • Reduced tax costs contributed 5.4% to EPS, with our underlying effective tax rate declining to 22.6%. This was helped by a number of tax settlements compared with 26.2% in the first half of 2019. The favorable impact was driven by a reduction in the India tax rate and the replacement of Indian distribution tax with a dividend withholding tax. We expect that our tax rate will be around 25% for the full year in 2020. These movements were slightly reduced by an increase in net profit attributable to minority interest following the completion of the merger between Unilever's listed subsidiary in India and GlaxoSmithKline's Consumer Healthcare business there. Currency movements reduced EPS by 3.7% in the first half. And based on spot rates, we would expect a negative currency translation impact of around 5% on EPS in 2020.

    稅收成本降低使每股收益增加了 5.4%,我們的基本有效稅率下降至 22.6%。與 2019 年上半年的 26.2% 相比,一些稅務和解協議對此有所幫助。這一有利影響主要得益於印度稅率的降低以及以股息預扣稅取代印度分配稅。我們預計2020年全年稅率約為25%。由於聯合利華在印度的上市子公司與葛蘭素史克在印度的消費者保健業務合併完成,歸屬於少數股東權益的淨利潤有所增加,這些變動略有減少。匯率波動導致上半年每股收益下降 3.7%。根據即期匯率,我們預期 2020 年匯率變動將對每股盈餘產生約 5% 的負面影響。

  • Alongside competitive volume-led growth, absolute profit and cash, that's our 3 simple but important KPIs, and they really are the cornerstone of how we are managing our performance during the pandemic. Free cash flow in the first half of 2020 was EUR 2.9 billion, up EUR 1.3 billion from EUR 1.6 billion in the first half of 2019. The improvement was primarily led by working capital improvements, in particular a reduction in receivables year-on-year.

    除了以銷量為導向的競爭性成長、絕對利潤和現金流之外,這就是我們的 3 個簡單但重要的 KPI,它們確實是我們在疫情期間管理業績的基石。2020 年上半年自由現金流為 29 億歐元,比 2019 年上半年的 16 億歐元增加了 13 億歐元。這項改善主要得益於營運資金的改善,特別是應收帳款年減。

  • To make sure that we convert absolute profit into cash, we've set up specialist teams in every market to focus on receivables. Whilst we will bring in the cash on time, we will also pay our suppliers on time and even early for small suppliers where they need it. This is part of our commitment to make available up to EUR 500 million of cash flow relief for any vulnerable, small- and medium-sized suppliers. Cash tax paid was lower as the prior year included payments relating to the disposal of the spreads business, together with other tax settlements.

    為了確保我們將絕對利潤轉化為現金,我們在每個市場都設立了專門的團隊,專注於應收帳款。雖然我們會準時收取現金,但我們也會按時支付供應商款項,對於需要的小型供應商,我們甚至會提前支付。這是我們承諾向所有弱勢的中小型供應商提供高達 5 億歐元現金流援助的一部分。由於上一年包含了與處置利口酒業務相關的付款以及其他稅務結算,因此支付的現金稅款較少。

  • Unilever has a very robust balance sheet and a strong liquidity position, which is reflected in our credit ratings, which are currently A1/A+ for long-term debt. It is critical that we maintain our strong balance sheet in these uncertain and challenging times. Our net debt remains at 1.9x EBITDA, in line with our long-term leverage target of around 2x.

    聯合利華擁有非常穩健的資產負債表和強勁的流動性,這體現在我們的信用評級中,目前其長期債務評級為 A1/A+。在當前充滿不確定性和挑戰的時期,保持穩健的資產負債表至關重要。我們的淨債務仍為 EBITDA 的 1.9 倍,符合我們約 2 倍的長期槓桿目標。

  • We have U.S. and European commercial paper programs with around EUR 1.3 billion of outstandings at the end of June, backed up by around EUR 7 billion of undrawn committed facility. In the first quarter, we secured EUR 2 billion of additional funding in the debt capital markets. This was a prudent move to take advantage of the relative market stability at that time to bolster our headroom and our financial flexibility.

    截至 6 月底,我們在美國和歐洲的商業票據計畫未償餘額約為 13 億歐元,並有約 70 億歐元的未提取承諾額度作為支持。第一季度,我們在債務資本市場獲得了 20 億歐元的額外資金。這是明智之舉,利用當時相對穩定的市場環境來增強我們的營運空間和財務靈活性。

  • At the end of June, our cash and undrawn facilities totaled EUR 11.9 billion, which is 2.7x the amount of debt that we have maturing over the next 12 months. Our pension deficit has increased by EUR 0.2 billion since the 31st December 2019, to EUR 0.4 billion, and that was a result of falling discount rates, partially offset by positive investment returns.

    截至 6 月底,我們的現金和未提取信貸額度總計 119 億歐元,是未來 12 個月內到期債務金額的 2.7 倍。自 2019 年 12 月 31 日以來,我們的退休金赤字增加了 2 億歐元,達到 4 億歐元,這是由於折現率下降造成的,部分被正的投資回報所抵消。

  • And with that, I'll hand back to Alan to wrap us up.

    那麼,接下來就交給艾倫來總結吧。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Apologies, guys. Lesson learned not to hang up when you're trying to hit unmute. So there's, I think, little that -- the first half of 2020 has seen some of the absolute most testing conditions that most businesses have ever encountered. We do feel that Unilever has demonstrated the resilience of our business in our portfolio, in our continued step-up in operational excellence and the financial strength of the company.

    抱歉,各位。吸取教訓:在嘗試取消靜音時不要掛斷電話。所以,我認為,2020 年上半年是大多數企業有史以來遇到的最具挑戰性的時期之一。我們認為,聯合利華已經透過我們的產品組合、不斷提升的卓越營運水平以及公司的財務實力,展現了我們業務的韌性。

  • We've unlocked new levels of agility as we responded to record levels of growth and frankly, record levels of decline in some countries and categories all at the same time. Our supply chain has shown that it can switch off, switch on and adapt at pace. And we continue to strengthen the strategic future of the company through our unification proposals, the evolution of our portfolio and these climate and nature commitments that we make as part of our sustainability journey.

    我們釋放了新的敏捷性,以應對創紀錄的成長,坦白說,也應對某些國家和類別中創紀錄的下滑。我們的供應鏈已經證明,它可以快速地停止運作、重新啟動和進行調整。我們將繼續透過整合方案、產品組合的演進以及我們在永續發展歷程中所做的氣候和自然承諾,來加強公司的策略未來。

  • We're moving onto response mode to living now with COVID-19 as a permanent feature. There is no quick fix. A new normal will emerge. We've maintained Unilever's financial strength during the first half, so we are not investment constrained in the second half of the year or beyond. We've been (inaudible) and we now plan to invest heavily on BMI to further strengthen our competitiveness.

    我們正在進入應對模式,將新冠肺炎作為永久疾病來應對。沒有快速解決辦法。一種新的常態將會出現。上半年我們維持了聯合利華的財務實力,因此我們在下半年或以後不會受到投資限制。我們一直以來都在(聽不清楚),現在我們計劃對 BMI 進行大量投資,以進一步增強我們的競爭力。

  • As Graeme has said, there's a huge range of possible macroeconomic outputs, and we believe that a quick recovery is too optimistic. We can't reliably assess what the impact on our markets and business will be, which is why we've withdrawn our growth and margin outlook. What is important is that we continue to drive operational excellence through the 5 growth fundamentals, and that we leverage our in-market agility to drive volume-led, competitive growth alongside absolute underlying operating profit and cash.

    正如格雷姆所說,宏觀經濟產出存在著巨大的可能性,我們認為快速復甦過於樂觀。我們無法可靠地評估這對我們的市場和業務會造成什麼影響,因此我們撤回了成長和利潤率預期。重要的是,我們要繼續透過 5 項成長基本要素推動卓越運營,並利用我們在市場上的靈活性,在實現絕對基礎營業利潤和現金流的同時,推動以銷量為主導的競爭性增長。

  • So thanks very much for listening. That's the end of the prepared remarks. And Richard, back to you.

    非常感謝您的聆聽。準備好的發言稿到此結束。理查德,該你了。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Thanks, Alan. Right. We'll now move to questions. (Operator Instructions) So I see our first question is from Warren Ackerman of Barclays. Go ahead, Warren.

    謝謝你,艾倫。正確的。接下來進入問答環節。(操作員說明)我看到我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的沃倫·阿克曼。請繼續,沃倫。

  • Warren Lester Ackerman - Head of European Consumer Equity Research

    Warren Lester Ackerman - Head of European Consumer Equity Research

  • Alan, Graeme, Richard, hope you could hear me. Two from me. First one is on competitiveness of Unilever. At a recent conference you highlighted 2 pieces of evidence on competitiveness. One was winning back some share in the U.S. hotspots and the second one was brand penetration of 400 bps in Q1 versus Q4 in your top 65 sales. Can you update us on both of those and maybe go a bit further and talk about market share generally? I was a bit surprised to hear it's only 50% given the good quarter.

    艾倫、格雷姆、理查德,希望你們能聽到我說話。我投兩票。第一個問題是關於聯合利華的競爭力。在最近的一次會議上,您重點介紹了兩項有關競爭力的證據。一是在美國熱點地區贏回了一些市場份額,二是第一季品牌滲透率比第四季在前 65 名銷售產品中提高了 400 個基點。您能否就這兩方面的情況向我們提供最新信息,並進一步談談市場份額的總體情況?考慮到上個季度業績不錯,聽到只有50%這個數字,我有點驚訝。

  • And then secondly on margins for Graeme, down 100 bps on brand and marketing in the first half. Can you say a little bit, Graeme, about what level of media deflation you are seeing and whether you'd expect margins in the second half to be down given gross margins are going to be lower and BMI steps up in the second half? And did I hear right, 20% margin target is off the table not just in the short term but also in the medium term?

    其次,Graeme 的利潤率在上半年因品牌和行銷支出下降了 100 個基點。格雷姆,你能否談談你目前看到的媒體市場通貨緊縮程度,以及考慮到毛利率將會降低,而BMI在下半年將會上升,你是否預計下半年的利潤率會下降?我沒聽錯吧,20%的利潤率目標不只短期內不可能實現,中期也不可能實現?

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, thanks very much, Warren. As you've directed, I'll do the first question and I'll let Graeme take a second one. And these -- so first, let me thank our listeners for indulging us with a slightly longer than usual set of introductory remarks. It is because we wanted to give you the decomposition of the business and given how varied it is. And second, in these crazy times, Warren, it's nice to see that some things remain a constant feature of the landscape. I'm glad to hear you getting in the first question.

    非常感謝你,沃倫。按照你的指示,我先回答第一個問題,第二個問題讓格雷姆回答。那麼,首先,請允許我感謝各位聽眾,讓我們有機會發表比平常稍長的開場白。這是因為我們想向您詳細介紹這項業務,因為它涉及的方面非常廣泛。其次,沃倫,在如今這個瘋狂的時代,很高興看到有些東西始終如一。很高興聽到你回答了第一個問題。

  • On competitiveness, let me just answer with data. So at -- media annual total at the end of December was that somewhere around 40% of our business was coming from businesses where we were growing penetration. That is now solidly above 50%. And that's a remarkable swing in a short period of time on a measure that's typically quite stubborn to move. And we know that penetration improvements precede volume share increases, and that volume share increases are a very good indicator of lasting value share increases through and beyond recessions.

    關於競爭力問題,我只想用數據來回答。因此,截至 12 月底,媒體年度總收入中約有 40% 來自我們正在擴大滲透率的企業。目前這一比例已穩居 50% 以上。而且,對於一個通常很難變動的指標來說,在如此短的時間內出現這樣的顯著波動實屬罕見。我們知道,市場滲透率的提高先於銷售份額的成長,而銷售份額的成長是經濟衰退期間及之後價值份額持續成長的一個非常好的指標。

  • Secondly, on value share, it's actually a very similar picture. So throughout most of last year, our market shares were bouncing around, and around 40% of the business winning. Again, we're now over 50%. And actually, that doesn't vary very much between the top 62 category country sales that we are laser-focused on, on the total estate.

    其次,從價值份額來看,情況也非常相似。因此,在去年大部分時間裡,我們的市佔率一直在波動,大約有 40% 的業務取得了成功。現在我們已經超過 50% 了。事實上,在我們重點關注的前 62 個類別國家的銷售額中,整體情況並沒有太大變化。

  • One mathematical anomaly that I laid down a marker for you on was skin cleansing where, believe it or not, despite dramatically growing share in each of sanitizers, hand wash, body wash and bar soaps, given our different market shares in those segments, so typically lower shares in hand hygiene, higher shares in bars and body wash, coupled with the different growth rates, we actually didn't gain share in aggregate in total skin cleansing. And if we were to look at it subcategory by subcategory rather -- and aggregate that rather than at a total category level, the number would be much higher than 50%. But we decided not to change the basis of measurement, we thought that it would be more straightforward to keep repeating.

    我曾指出一個數學上的反常現象,那就是皮膚清潔。信不信由你,儘管我們在消毒劑、洗手液、沐浴露和香皂等各個領域的市場份額都大幅增長,但考慮到我們在這些細分市場中的市場份額不同(通常手部衛生用品的份額較低,香皂和沐浴露的份額較高),再加上不同的增長率,我們實際上並沒有在皮膚清潔總市場份額上獲得增長。如果我們逐個子類別地查看,而不是按類別整體進行匯總,那麼這個數字將遠高於 50%。但我們決定不改變測量基礎,我們認為繼續重複測量會更直接。

  • So trending in the right direction. And the reason why you're not seeing an even higher number is that subsegment difference. I hope that answers the question clearly. Over to Graeme on margins.

    所以,目前的發展趨勢是正確的。而你沒有看到更高數字的原因就是細分市場的差異。希望我的回答能清楚地解答這個問題。接下來請格雷姆談談邊緣問題。

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Warren, let me start with your question on BMI, and I hope you got the message in the prepared remarks that in the second half we expect to be investing more BMI as lockdowns start to ease. We've certainly kept some powder dry in managing the first half challenges, and we do expect a step-up there.

    是的。沃倫,首先我想回答你關於BMI的問題,我希望你已經從準備好的發言稿中了解到,隨著封鎖措施開始放鬆,我們預計下半年將加大對BMI的投資。我們確實在應對上半場的挑戰方面保留了一些實力,我們也期待下半場能有所進步。

  • On the question of softening in media rates, yes, there has been a softening in media rates across markets. It's been very varied. It's ranged from nothing in some places to 40% in other places. And broadly, across the piece, it's been maybe in the range of 20%, 25%. And actually, if you think about our 3.5% or so of turnover that we spend on media and you apply that across it, that accounts for at least some part of the benefit that we saw from BMI in the first half. So yes, that's the landscape on brand and marketing investment.

    關於媒體價格走軟的問題,是的,各市場的媒體價格都出現了走軟的現象。情況非常多樣化。有些地方的比例為零,有些地方則高達 40%。總的來說,整部作品的佔比可能在 20% 到 25% 之間。事實上,如果你想想我們大約 3.5% 的營業額用於媒體,並將此應用到所有方面,這至少可以解釋我們在上半年從 BMI 獲得的收益的一部分。是的,這就是品牌和行銷投資的現狀。

  • One other thing to say, actually. We do track, obviously, our share of voice over the period, and we were above 100 year-to-date. So that gives us some reassurance that we're investing in the right place even though it was a very, very dynamic environment with dial backs and areas of specific investment in specific places.

    其實還有一件事要說。我們當然會追蹤這段時間內我們的聲量份額,今年迄今為止,我們的聲量份額超過了 100%。這讓我們確信,即使市場環境瞬息萬變,投資領域有所縮減,並且需要在特定地區進行特定投資,但我們的投資方向是正確的。

  • On the question of overall margins up or down, what can I say? I'll give you a comment on gross margin, in particular. We were down 30 basis points, as you saw on the first half. We expect to see -- we are seeing and we expect to see mid-single-digit commodity inflation. As we called out in the presentation, there are some meaningful ongoing on cost from COVID in gross margin, and there's some meaningful ongoing negative mix impacts from the places where we're seeing surges in demand and the places where we're seeing dial backs in demand. And we expect those trends will continue.

    至於整體利潤率是上升還是下降,我還能說什麼呢?我特別想就毛利率發表一下看法。正如你在上半場看到的,我們一度落後30個基點。我們預期——而且我們預期——大宗商品通膨率將達到個位數中段。正如我們在簡報中指出的那樣,COVID 對毛利率造成了一些持續的重大成本影響,而且由於需求激增和需求下降的地區,也造成了一些持續的重大負面影響。我們預計這些趨勢將會持續下去。

  • That's really all I'm going to say on margin because, as Alan was very clear on the call, yes, we are not giving any margin guidance for 2020 and we are not giving any margin guidance beyond 2020. We're managing the business focused on competitive volume-led growth, absolute underlying operating profit delivery and converting that underlying operating profit into cash and where the margin will just be an outcome of that one.

    關於保證金,我真的就說這麼多了,因為正如艾倫在電話會議上非常明確地表示的那樣,是的,我們不提供 2020 年的保證金指引,也不提供 2020 年以後的保證金指引。我們管理業務的重點是追求以銷量為導向的競爭性成長、實現絕對基礎營業利潤,並將基礎營業利潤轉化為現金,而利潤率只是這個過程的結果。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Thank you, Warren. For our next question, can we go to Guillaume Delmas now at UBS. Go ahead, Guillaume.

    謝謝你,沃倫。下一個問題,我們現在可以採訪瑞銀集團的 Guillaume Delmas 嗎?請繼續,紀堯姆。

  • Guillaume Gerard Vincent Delmas - Analyst

    Guillaume Gerard Vincent Delmas - Analyst

  • I hope you can hear me okay. A couple of questions from me. The first one is on North America. You achieved, I think, one of your best quarterly underlying sales growth there in more than a couple of decades. So how should we think about it? Is it down to a strong category growth rate in the quarter? Or is it also reflective of significant share gain? And I guess any indications around a potential discrepancy between sell-in and sell-out in the first half of the year. And I guess what would be quite helpful would be also any indications around the exit rate in this region.

    希望你能聽清楚我說話。我有幾個問題。第一個是關於北美的。我認為,你們實現了近二十年來最好的季度基礎銷售成長之一。那我們該如何看待這個問題呢?是因為本季該品類成長率強勁嗎?或者,這也反映了市場佔有率的顯著成長?我猜想,上半年的售罄量和進貨量之間可能存在差異的任何跡象。我想,如果能提供一些關於該地區出口率的指標,那就非常有幫助了。

  • And then my second question is on mix, which had an adverse impact on your gross margin. Are you already seeing some evidence of down-trading in some parts of the world and some part of your portfolio? Or at this stage, is this negative mix effect essentially the consequence of COVID-19 disproportionately affecting your higher gross margin distribution channels?

    我的第二個問題是關於產品組合,它對你們的毛利率產生了不利影響。您是否已經在世界某些地區和您的部分投資組合中發現了降級交易的跡象?或者,在現階段,這種負面的組合效應本質上是否是由於 COVID-19 對貴公司高毛利率分銷管道造成了不成比例的影響?

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Okay. Guillaume, why don't we stick with the pattern, Graeme. I'll take the first one, you take the second one. On North America, yes, let me try and be very simple. The exit rate remains strong. So there was no kind of fast start in the quarter and then tailing away. North America has remained more or less constant through the quarter. Secondly, there's no discrepancy between sell-in and sell-out. It's neither. I think we're well beyond us loading up the shelf and -- in anticipation of some sort of panic buying. If anything, we're struggling slightly to keep up with demand in North America. And service levels are slightly below where I'd like them to be and particularly buoyant in some subsegments.

    好的。吉約姆,格雷姆,我們為什麼不繼續沿用之前的模式?我拿第一個,你拿第二個。關於北美,是的,讓我盡量用最簡單的方式來說。退出率依然強勁。所以本季並沒有出現開局迅猛然後逐漸下滑的情況。北美地區本季基本保持穩定。其次,售出和售入之間沒有區別。兩者都不是。我認為我們已經遠遠超越了囤積貨架以應對某種恐慌性搶購的階段。如果有什麼不足的話,那就是我們在滿足北美市場的需求上略顯吃力。服務水準略低於我的預期,但在某些細分領域表現尤為突出。

  • I think it's fair to say that our market shares in North America reflect a competitive performance. We've addressed the hotspots. We're doing well in ice cream. We're doing well in dressings. And actually, we're doing well in Beauty & Personal Care competitiveness, although that market is not growing as quickly as the other parts. The reason why we're seeing such strong growth in North America is partly also related to mix. We have a very strong in-home Foods business in North America and our ice cream business in the U.S. is more driven by in-home than out-of-home. So we're seeing tremendous strength in hygiene, in skin cleansing, in in-home consumption of food. And that includes ice cream, where there's not such a big out-of-home component.

    我認為可以公平地說,我們在北美市場的份額反映了我們具有競爭力的表現。我們已經解決了熱點問題。我們在冰淇淋業務上做得很好。我們在敷料方面做得很好。事實上,我們在美容及個人護理領域的競爭力表現良好,儘管該市場的成長速度不如其他領域。北美市場出現如此強勁的成長,部分原因也與產品組合有關。我們在北美擁有非常強大的家庭食品業務,而我們在美國的冰淇淋業務更多是由家庭消費而非外出消費驅動的。因此,我們看到人們在衛生、皮膚清潔和居家飲食方面都表現出了極大的熱情。這其中也包括冰淇淋,因為冰淇淋的消費主要集中在戶外購買。

  • So short answer, I think it's us participating in strong category growth with competitive market shares, no mismatch between sell-in and sell-out. We're certainly not selling in ahead of sell-out. And the exit rate was more or less the same as the ongoing rate. On that, I'll hand over to Graeme to share some perspectives on mix.

    簡而言之,我認為我們參與了強勁的品類成長,擁有具有競爭力的市場份額,進貨量和出貨量之間沒有錯配。我們絕對不會在售罄前提前拋售。退出率與持續退出率基本相同。接下來,我將把麥克風交給格雷姆,讓他分享一些關於混音的觀點。

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Well, Guillaume, there are many, many ways and axis through which you can look at mix. Of course, you can look at it through a divisional mix, a category mix, a country mix or even at the level of SKU impact mix. I'll try and stay at the level of category mix, though. I'll give you an example.

    Guillaume,其實有很多很多方法和角度可以用來看待混音。當然,你可以從部門組合、類別組合、國家組合,甚至 SKU 影響組合的角度來看待它。不過,我會盡量保持品類組合的水平。我給你舉個例子。

  • Growth in skin cleansing, which has been enormous versus the other parts of our BPC business. Our skin cleansing business has a lower relative gross margin within BPC, but a very, very healthy bottom line operating margin. So you see that show up in the mix. Another example is reduction in out-of-home ice cream, which has a higher relative gross margin than in home ice cream. So that -- it is driven at that fundamental level of the -- of where we're seeing surging demand and where we are seeing declines in demand or indeed channel closure.

    與其他個人護理產品業務相比,皮膚清潔業務的成長非常顯著。雖然我們的護膚品業務在 BPC 內部的毛利率相對較低,但我們的淨利潤率非常非常高。所以你會看到這種情況出現在其中。另一個例子是外食冰淇淋的減少,因為外食冰淇淋的相對毛利率高於家庭自製冰淇淋。因此,其根本驅動力在於──我們看到哪些地方需求激增,哪些地方需求下降,甚至哪些管道關閉。

  • On the question of consumer pricing and recessionary consumer behavior. Of course, it seems inevitable, I think, that there's a global economic downturn. What we don't know is the depth and length of that. We don't know which countries are going to be hit hardest as yet. And of course, when we have a recession, consumers are going to look for value. What is important is to distinguish that from cheapness. Consumers are looking for value and affordability, and so the role of price value and affordability is going to become very important. And we think we are good at reading and delivering affordability and value in Unilever. We don't tend to react by radical price slashing. But we think about the fundamental value equation in our brands, in our pack sizes, for example. That's a good example of it.

    關於消費者定價與經濟衰退時期消費者行為的問題。我認為,全球經濟衰退似乎是不可避免的。我們不知道的是,這件事的深度和持續時間。我們目前還不知道哪些國家會受到最嚴重的打擊。當然,當經濟衰退時,消費者會尋求物美價廉的產品。重要的是要將其與廉價區分開來。消費者追求的是價值和價格實惠,因此價格價值和價格實惠的作用將變得非常重要。我們認為我們很擅長在聯合利華中提供價格合理、物有所值的產品和服務。我們通常不會採取大幅降價的應對措施。但我們會思考我們品牌的基本價值等式,例如我們的包裝規格。這是個很好的例子。

  • Now our value portfolio in Unilever, which we sort of describe as less than 80 average price index, is pretty well positioned. We've got about 20% of the Unilever portfolio in aggregate in the value segment, about 45% is in the mid-tiers and about 35% is in premium. That's a good start. And a lot of branded players don't play at all in value, so it's a pretty good start for us. But we're not done yet. We have set up a number of targeted squads around the business, working to identify and plug gaps in the value portfolio, market by market, particularly in low unit price packs and lower-tier brands.

    現在,我們在聯合利華的價值投資組合(我們將其定義為平均價格指數低於 80)配置得相當不錯。聯合利華旗下產品組合中,價值型產品約佔 20%,中階產品約佔 45%,高階產品約佔 35%。這是一個好的開始。很多品牌球員的價值都不高,所以這對我們來說是相當不錯的開始。但我們還沒完成。我們已在公司內部設立了多個專案小組,致力於逐個市場地識別和填補價值組合中的差距,尤其是在低單價包裝和低端品牌方面。

  • Of course, that value portfolio has a different P&L profile. It typically has a lower gross margin. But it also has lower BMI requirements and it does still contribute strongly to the bottom line, and typically doesn't impact bottom line margin, et cetera. So I think we're well placed. We're starting to see the effects of trade down. We're planning for it. And we're doing a lot of work within the business to make sure that we're ready for the recession ahead, and we're strong with our value portfolio.

    當然,這種價值型投資組合的損益情況有所不同。它通常毛利率較低。但它對 BMI 的要求也較低,而且仍然對利潤做出很大貢獻,通常不會影響利潤率等等。所以我覺得我們處境不錯。我們開始看到貿易下行帶來的影響。我們正在為此做準備。我們正在公司內部做了很多工作,以確保我們為即將到來的經濟衰退做好準備,而且我們的價值投資組合也很強大。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Okay. Thanks, Guillaume. Let's go straight to next question, which is Alan Erskine from Crédit Suisse. You're on, Alan.

    好的。謝謝你,紀堯姆。讓我們直接進入下一個問題,這個問題來自瑞士信貸的艾倫·厄斯金。輪到你了,艾倫。

  • Alan Erskine - Research Analyst

    Alan Erskine - Research Analyst

  • Can you hear me?

    你聽得到我嗎?

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Yes. Yes, Alan.

    是的。是的,艾倫。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes, we can.

    是的,我們可以。

  • Alan Erskine - Research Analyst

    Alan Erskine - Research Analyst

  • Perfect. Okay. Perfect. Sorry. Okay. Most of my questions been asked, just 2 quick ones. One, Graeme, can you just go through the other moving parts in the gross margin? Obviously, it's down 30, but you're saying 80 bps is down to mix and COVID, and there's also some fixed cost deleveraging within the gross margin. So what is the offsetting benefit? Is that lower raw material prices, higher pricing, less trade promotions? Can you just give me some of the feel for that and maybe how that might play out in the second half? And then just a very quick question, just on 2 hotspots specifically, U.S. and China haircare, how did your shares performed there in Q2?

    完美的。好的。完美的。對不起。好的。我的問題大部分都問完了,只剩下兩個簡單的問題了。格雷姆,你能簡單介紹一下毛利率的其他組成部分嗎?顯然,下降了 30 個基點,但你說 80 個基點的下降是由於產品組合和新冠疫情造成的,而且毛利率中也存在一些固定成本去槓桿化。那麼,抵消這種影響的好處是什麼?是指原物料價格下降、產品定價上漲、促銷活動減少嗎?你能大概描述一下那種感覺嗎?還有,下半場可能會怎麼發展?最後還有一個非常簡短的問題,具體來說,是關於美國和中國這兩個熱門地區的護髮產品,你們的股票在第二季度在這兩個地區的表現如何?

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Okay. Graeme, you crack on gross margin decomp, and I'll talk about U.S. hair and China hair.

    好的。格雷姆,你來研究毛利率分解,我來談談美國頭髮和中國頭髮。

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Alan, yes, so we had the -- you picked up the points on negative mix and the on-cost of operating our factories safely through the crisis. The other 2 moving parts are essentially what's happened in terms of raw material costs, input costs, et cetera, and what happened in pricing. That was slightly positive in the gross margin. In terms of how that -- one other comment, actually. Obviously, in any given year, we have a number of strong savings programs in the supply chain. They have been slightly curtailed from the normal performance we would expect to see in peace time, so to speak, because it requires things like factory changeover, line changeover. It requires innovation change-out to land some of those savings.

    是的。艾倫,是的,所以我們——你提到了負面組合以及在危機期間安全運營工廠的額外成本。另外兩個變動因素本質上是原物料成本、投入成本等方面的變化,以及定價方面的變化。毛利率略為上升。關於這一點——其實還有一點要補充。顯然,在任何一年,我們的供應鏈中都有許多強而有力的節約計畫。可以說,由於需要進行工廠改造、生產線改造等,它們的正常性能比我們在和平時期預期的要略有下降。要實現這些成本節約,需要進行創新變革。

  • And that's obviously being curtailed through the first half of the year as we've been focusing on the A and B SKUs, softening the demand signal, concentrating on the products with the greatest level of demand. So I'm afraid there are many, many moving parts within it. But at a fundamental level -- just to go back. I think to the answer to Guillaume's question, I think we will see the main movements in gross margin being driven by the mix impact as we move into more of a value position portfolio over time. That's how I would summarize that.

    顯然,今年上半年這種趨勢受到了抑制,因為我們一直專注於 A 類和 B 類 SKU,緩和需求訊號,集中精力於需求量最大的產品。所以恐怕其中涉及的環節非常多。但從根本上來說——就是回歸。我認為,對於 Guillaume 的問題,隨著我們逐漸轉向價值型投資組合,毛利率的主要變動將受到投資組合結構變化的影響。這就是我的總結。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Graeme. So Warren, U.S. hair, the market share, our market share there is down very slightly. And it's largely because of the portfolio mix. We're over-indexed in styling in the U.S., which has seen radical reductions growing very slowly. I think it's down 30% and so we're disproportionately hit by that. But we have a secret weapon, which is called Suave. We know that when downturns kick in, the biggest penetration, Beauty & Personal Care brand in all (inaudible), and we fully anticipate strong performance from that because of the great value that it offers. So the channel and value proposition of Suave will be great for the coming months.

    謝謝你,格雷姆。所以沃倫,美國頭髮的市場份額,我們在那裡的市場份額略有下降。這主要是因為投資組合的組成。美國的時尚風格過於繁復,大幅縮減的趨勢進展非常緩慢。我認為下降了30%,所以我們受到的影響特別嚴重。但我們還有一件秘密武器,它叫做 Suave。我們知道,當經濟低迷時,滲透率最高的美容及個人護理品牌(聽不清楚)將表現出色,我們完全預期該品牌會憑藉其提供的巨大價值而取得強勁業績。因此,Suave 的管道和價值主張在未來幾個月內將非常有利。

  • China is the opposite direction. I think Graeme mentioned or somewhere we mentioned that China was growing mid-single digits. China hair is up 2 to 3x that, growing market share, benefiting a little bit from repipelining after the China lockdown. But our China hair business is extremely strong, growing share and growing volumes and growing revenues.

    中國的情況則相反。我想格雷姆提到過,或者我們曾在某個地方提到過,中國的經濟成長率達到了中等個位數。中國的頭髮護理需求增加了 2 到 3 倍,市場份額不斷擴大,這在一定程度上得益於中國疫情封鎖後供應鏈的重新調整。但是我們在中國的頭髮護理業務非常強勁,市場份額、銷售和收入都在不斷增長。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Okay. Thanks, Alan. Our next question is from James Targett at Berenberg. We're going to let the call run on for about 10 minutes to try and get 1 of 2 more questioners in, but we can't go for much longer than that. Over to you, James.

    好的。謝謝你,艾倫。我們的下一個問題來自貝倫貝格銀行的詹姆斯·塔吉特。我們將讓通話再持續約 10 分鐘,以便讓另外一兩位提問者加入,但我們不能再延長通話時間了。接下來就交給你了,詹姆斯。

  • James Targett - Analyst

    James Targett - Analyst

  • And I really appreciate all the subcategory color. It's very helpful. Two questions, just on the innovation pipeline. Alan, at the start, you mentioned -- you talked about the rationalized approach, maybe sort of fewer bigger launches. Do you expect the total value of your innovation pipeline to fall or its contribution to growth? Or is it just about focusing your efforts on bigger projects? And does that focus reduce your local competitiveness at all? After all, you were trying to sort of be more agile and responsive to local competitors.

    我非常喜歡所有子類別的顏色區分。這很有幫助。關於創新流程,我有兩個問題。艾倫,一開始你提到過——你談到了理性化的方法,也許會減少規模更大的發布次數。您預計您的創新產品線總價值會下降,還是其對成長的貢獻會下降?或者,這只是意味著要將精力集中在更大的專案上?這種做法是否會降低您在當地的競爭力?畢竟,你當時是想變得更靈活,對當地競爭對手做出更迅速的反應。

  • And then secondly, just on foodservice and Prestige. I wonder if you could comment at all about the kind of the exit growth rates in the quarter you were seeing in those 2 channels.

    其次,就餐飲服務和尊貴領域而言。我想請您談談本季這兩個管道的退出成長率狀況。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Okay. Graeme, I'll have a crack the first one, you can talk about Food Solutions and Prestige. Thanks, James. First question is, we believe focusing the portfolio of innovation will drive higher overall incremental turnover. It sounds ridiculous, but it is -- as we try and constantly strike this balance between global and local, I do think that we got carried away on too long a tail of small innovation, trying to address every opportunity locally.

    好的。格雷姆,第一個問題我來試試,你可以談談食物解決方案和 Prestige。謝謝你,詹姆斯。首先,我們認為集中精力進行創新組合將推動整體增量營業額的提高。這聽起來很荒謬,但事實的確如此——當我們努力在全球和本地之間不斷尋求平衡時,我認為我們過於沉迷於小規模創新,試圖抓住每一個本地機會。

  • Concentrating our resources, buying fewer, bigger seems to have the impact of better growth. And we've got a role model for that, which is -- actually, we have 2 role models for that. One is our Home Care business and the other is deodorants, which typically set the pace on having focused innovation agendas. It definitely does not compromise local relevance. And in a way, I wish I could call up a few slides that I used with our Board yesterday to show how we were responding in skin cleansing, home and hygiene and retail foods with making new mixes that tap the zeitgeist.

    集中資源,減少採購數量,增加採購量,似乎能帶來更好的成長。我們在這方面有榜樣,實際上,我們有兩個榜樣。一個是我們的家居護理業務,另一個是除臭劑業務,這兩個業務通常在製定重點創新議程方面引領潮流。這絕對不會影響其本地相關性。從某種意義上說,我希望我能調出昨天在董事會上用過的幾張幻燈片,向大家展示我們在皮膚清潔、家居衛生和零售食品領域是如何透過製作迎合時代精神的新混合物來應對的。

  • So we've got a huge array of hand wash products, not just antibacterial Lifebuoy, but skin caring in the form of Dove because everyone's hands are red rough from over washing. Great sensory hand washes from Lux and so on. A huge assortment of hygiene initiatives in skin cleansing actually, so sanitizers. But also professional hygiene solutions, which is growing really quickly. Then on the home and hygiene, alongside rolling out Domestos for a few markets, we've got Naturals mixes that we launched, for example, we're launching in some big emerging markets where people (inaudible) for chemicals and the money for the times that we're in right now.

    所以我們有很多洗手產品,不僅有抗菌的力士牌洗手液,還有護膚型的多芬洗手液,因為大家的手都因為過度洗手而變得又紅又粗糙。力士等品牌的優質感官洗手液。實際上,皮膚清潔方面有許多衛生措施,例如消毒劑。但專業的衛生解決方案也在快速成長。然後是家居和衛生方面,除了在一些市場推出 Domestos 之外,我們還推出了 Naturals 混合產品,例如,我們正在一些大型新興市場推出這些產品,這些市場的人們(聽不清楚)需要化學品,而且在我們現在所處的時代,他們也需要錢。

  • And I think in Foods, we've been very focused on -- let me describe it in 3 different ways. The first is affordable at-home easting solutions. We've got lots of interesting new products in that space. The second is the continuing macro trend toward plant-based, which is where we've focused disproportionately. And the third is solutions specifically designed for e-commerce delivery. So it's not just chopping off the tail, that's the easy bit, it's actually retooling the innovation program to be relevant for the times that we're in. And that will definitely generate more incremental turnover not less. Graeme, maybe you can cover Food Solutions and Prestige.

    我認為在食品領域,我們一直非常關注——讓我用三種不同的方式來描述。第一種是價格實惠的居家用餐解決方案。我們在這個領域有很多有趣的新產品。第二點是植物性食品持續成長的宏觀趨勢,這也是我們重點關注的領域。第三種是專為電子商務配送設計的解決方案。所以,這不僅僅是砍掉尾巴那麼簡單,實際上,這是要重新調整創新計劃,使其與我們所處的時代相適應。這肯定會帶來更多而非更少的營業額成長。格雷姆,或許你可以負責食品解決方案和Prestige方面的報道。

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes, James. So just let me just dimensionalize for everybody once again the foodservice businesses. It's 5% Unilever in total. 20% of the business is in China. 25% of the business is in the EU and -- sorry, in Europe, I should say. And 10% of the business is in the U.S. And it's important to give that mix because as we said in the presentation, the growth rate very strongly impacted by the impact of lockdown and recovery, et cetera, across different geographies. And yes, there's been a very strong sequential improvement month-on-month, James, as the lockdowns have eased down at least. We were down 70% in April in UFS, 60% in May, but only 38% in June. And I don't know whether you can extrapolate that trend or not, but that at least gives you a sense of the exit momentum as we came out of the second quarter.

    是的,詹姆斯。那麼,讓我再次為大家介紹一下餐飲服務業的規模。總共佔聯合利華股份的5%。20%的業務在中國。25% 的業務在歐盟,——抱歉,應該說是在歐洲。其中 10% 的業務來自美國。這種組成很重要,因為正如我們在簡報中所說,不同地區的成長率都受到了封鎖和復甦等因素的強烈影響。是的,詹姆斯,隨著封鎖措施的逐步放鬆,每個月的業績都有了非常強勁的環比改善。4 月我們在 UFS 的跌幅為 70%,5 月為 60%,但 6 月僅跌幅為 38%。我不知道這種趨勢是否可以推斷出來,但這至少能讓你感受到第二季末的退出勢頭。

  • Prestige is a similar trend. Prestige was down 10% in the quarter. Again, I think Q2 is the toughest quarter for the business there. Just to dimensionalize that. It's about a EUR 600 million business. It is quite a U.S. business, actually. 2/3 of the business is in the States, about 1/3 outside the States. And we -- it sells through a channel structure, which is very dependent on health and beauty channels of Sephora, Ulta, department store sales, et cetera. That's about 2/3 of the sales. Or it was, I should say, because there's been a tremendous shift in demand in Prestige from the bricks-and-mortar channels, which were closed during the second quarter into online being some really strong growth in e-commerce sales in Prestige.

    聲望也是一個類似的趨勢。本季聲望下降了10%。我再次認為,第二季是該公司業務最艱難的季度。只是為了更形像地說明這個問題。這是一個價值約6億歐元的業務。實際上,這完全是一家美國企業。三分之二的業務在美國,約三分之一在美國以外。而我們——它透過通路結構進行銷售,非常依賴絲芙蘭、Ulta 等健康和美容通路、百貨公司銷售等。這大約佔銷售額的三分之二。或者應該說,情況確實如此,因為高端產品的需求已經從實體通路(第二季實體通路關閉)發生了巨大的轉變,轉向了線上通路,高階產品的電子商務銷售額出現了非常強勁的成長。

  • And a number of the brands within the portfolio actually continued to grow. One of the biggest drivers of the decline in Prestige was our color cosmetics business because, of course, color cosmetics is something where the consumer typically wants to try the product, typically wants to be working with a physical experience. So Hourglass cosmetics was down quite significantly. But we understand the reasons for that. And overall, I think our Prestige business is on a very improving trend as stores begin to open up again. I think we will be able to hold on to the shift that we've seen moving into e-comm for the brands, and that it's a very positive trend.

    而且,旗下許多品牌其實持續成長。導致 Prestige 業務下滑的最大因素之一是我們的彩妝業務,因為彩妝產品通常是消費者想要嘗試的,通常想要獲得實際體驗的產品。所以 Hourglass 化妝品的銷售量大幅下滑。但我們理解其中的原因。總的來說,我認為隨著門市重新開業,我們的高端業務正處於非常良好的發展趨勢。我認為我們能夠維持品牌轉型為電子商務的趨勢,而且這是一個非常積極的趨勢。

  • And just one other thing to mention, you might have seen that the -- in China, the regulations regarding animal testing are now being resolved. And so we are building some exciting plans, multiyear plans, to start to bring more of our beautiful Prestige portfolio into the big market of China.

    還有一點要提一下,您可能已經注意到,在中國,有關動物實驗的規定正在逐步解決。因此,我們正在製定一些令人興奮的多年計劃,開始將我們更多優秀的尊貴系列產品引入中國這個大市場。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Okay. Thank you, James. Graeme, we've just moved your next meeting by 10 minutes. So you can take a few more questions.

    好的。謝謝你,詹姆斯。格雷姆,我們剛剛將你的下次會議時間提前了 10 分鐘。所以你可以再回答幾個問題。

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Thanks for that.

    謝謝。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • So the next question is from Martin Deboo at Jefferies. Over to you, Martin.

    下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的馬丁·德布。接下來就交給你了,馬丁。

  • Martin John Deboo - Equity Analyst

    Martin John Deboo - Equity Analyst

  • Two quick and unconnected ones from me. First of all, you didn't mention the West Africa business, I don't think, and I raised it because it was part of the sales warning in December. Where was that business, Nigeria, Ghana trending in H1? And can I reconfirm, I think it's got a very easy comp in H2, hasn't it? That's the first question.

    我這裡有兩個簡短且互不相關的問題。首先,你沒有提到西非業務,我想是這樣,我之所以提出這個問題,是因為它包含在 12 月的銷售預警中。上半年,尼日利亞和加納的商業熱點在哪裡?我可以再確認一下嗎?我覺得它在 H2 中很容易對付,對吧?這是第一個問題。

  • Second question on the tea demerger. I get the hold on to India and Indonesia bit. But can you just talk a little bit about why you're holding on to the JV, the rationale for that? And what happens to the IP of the Lipton brand? Do you sell that and it gets licensed back into the -- just how does all that work? That's the second question. Okay.

    關於茶葉業務分拆的第二個問題。我明白你說的對印度和印尼的控制。您能否稍微談談您為什麼堅持持有合資企業,以及這樣做的理由?立頓品牌的智慧財產權將如何處理?你們把這個賣掉,然後再授權給別人──這到底是怎麼運作的?這是第二個問題。好的。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Right. Thanks, Martin. I actually want to put a footnote on what Graeme said about the relaxation of animal testing requirements in China. That didn't just happen. That happened because Unilever has been working with the Chinese FDA for a decade on making that amendment and persuading them the alternative models to animal testing are more -- are reliable and safe. And we're very proud of that, and it will open up an opportunity for us.

    正確的。謝謝你,馬丁。我其實想對格雷姆關於中國放寬動物實驗要求的言論加註。這並非偶然。之所以會發生這種情況,是因為聯合利華與中國國家食品藥物管理局合作了十年,以促成這項修改,並說服他們動物試驗的替代模式更可靠、更安全。我們為此感到非常自豪,這將為我們帶來機會。

  • Now Martin, to your question, West Africa, is still in good shape. Just as we started to get our inventory in balance, the overall markets are collapsing. That's maybe a bit dramatic, but they're certainly not strong. And so we'll see -- I think we'll see year-on-year growth in the second half in West Africa because of the dreadful comps last year. But I still don't think it's a business that's in really good shape. And we will -- we've got new leadership in there. We've got a sort of opportunity to rebase, which we've done. We're hitting our route-to-market systems, but it's in the most difficult circumstances. And so yes, mathematically, there will be a year-on-year comparison improvement. But I don't want to start celebrating prematurely that we're out of the woods in West Africa. Graeme, tea?

    馬丁,回答你的問題,西非目前狀況良好。正當我們開始使庫存達到平衡時,整體市場卻崩潰了。這或許有些誇張,但他們的確不夠強大。因此,我們將拭​​目以待——我認為由於去年同期糟糕的基數,西非下半年將實現同比增長。但我還是認為這家公司的經營狀況並不樂觀。我們會的——我們有了新的領導階層。我們有機會重新調整策略,我們也做到了。我們正在努力推進市場通路建設,但目前的情況非常艱難。所以,從數學角度來看,確實會有同比改善。但我不想過早地慶祝我們已經脫離了西非的困境。格雷姆,喝茶嗎?

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes. I mean the first thing to say, Martin, is our announcement in tea is that we'll take EUR 2 billion of the business, excluding India, Indonesia and the joint venture with Pepsi, and we'll separate that. And we'll take our time to work out what happens with that business, what the best way to have that business thrive in the future is going to be. And as usual, we'll be highly guided by value creation in everything that we do. I just wanted to reassure everybody of that.

    是的。我的意思是,馬丁,首先要說的是,我們宣布將剝離價值 20 億歐元的業務,不包括印度、印尼和與百事可樂的合資企業,並將這部分業務分開。我們會花時間仔細研究這家企業的未來發展方向,以及如何讓它在未來蓬勃發展。和以往一樣,我們所做的一切都將以創造價值為高度指導原則。我只是想讓大家放心。

  • When it comes to the joint venture with Pepsi, interestingly, from a market perspective, the ready-to-drink tea market is 2/3 of the global tea market is much bigger. It's nearly twice the size of the of the leaf tea market around the world. And it's been an extremely successful joint venture between ourselves and Pepsi. It's one of those joint ventures where each party brings a unique experience, Unilever in terms of the brand and marketing capability and Pepsi in terms of their expertise in bottling and distribution. And it has worked very, very well for a long period of time. And that principally is the reason why we've left that out at the conclusion of the strategic review.

    有趣的是,就與百事可樂的合資企業而言,從市場角度來看,即飲茶市場佔全球茶葉市場的三分之二,而全球茶葉市場規模則大得多。它的規模幾乎是全球散裝茶葉市場的兩倍。我們和百事可樂的合資計畫非常成功。這是那種雙方各有所長的合資企業,聯合利華帶來了獨特的經驗,聯合利華帶來了品牌和營銷能力,而百事可樂帶來了裝瓶和分銷方面的專業知識。而且長期以來,它的效果一直非常好。而這主要是我們在策略評估的結論部分省略了這項內容的原因。

  • You're right to point out that it does present a change going forward potentially with regard to the Lipton brand, because if there is a different owner or a more separate operation of the Lipton brand in hot tea -- or leaf tea rather, then there'll be some need for some form of split arrangement. But given the essential difference between the 2 categories of ready-to-drink tea and leaf tea, we're sure that that's very manageable. So no real concerns there.

    您指出這一點是對的,這確實可能對立頓品牌的未來產生影響,因為如果立頓品牌的熱茶(或更確切地說是散茶)有了不同的所有者或更獨立的運營模式,那麼就需要某種形式的拆分安排。但考慮到即飲茶和散茶這兩類茶的本質區別,我們相信這是完全可以解決的。所以這方面沒什麼好擔心的。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Thanks, Martin. Next question from Alicia Forry at Investec. Go ahead, Alicia.

    謝謝你,馬丁。下一個問題來自 Investec 的 Alicia Forry。請繼續,艾麗西亞。

  • Alicia Ann Forry - Consumer Analyst

    Alicia Ann Forry - Consumer Analyst

  • I just wanted to ask about your expectations for an India rebound in H2 that you've kind of alluded to in the past. We saw Hindustan Unilever had some pretty strong results, relatively speaking, and you've got easy comps there, too, in H2. So just curious, anything you can say about India in the second half?

    我只是想問您對印度經濟在下半年反彈的預期,您之前曾暗示過這一點。我們看到印度聯合利華取得了一些相當不錯的業績,相對而言,而且下半年的業績比較也比較容易。所以我很好奇,你對印度在下半年的表現有什麼看法?

  • And then secondly, you've mentioned consumers have embraced eco-friendly packaging perhaps even more rapidly than before the crisis, during the crisis. I'm curious which areas of the business are seeing the greatest impact of this change? And has there been any effect on gross margins as a result of this?

    其次,您提到消費者在危機期間接受環保包裝的速度可能比危機前更快。我很想知道公司哪些業務領域受這種變化的影響最大?那這是否對毛利率產生了任何影響?

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks very much, Alicia. Graeme, would you -- which of these questions would like to have a crack at?

    非常感謝,艾莉西亞。格雷姆,你願意嘗試回答下列哪一個問題嗎?

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • I'll take India, please, Alan?

    我要去印度,可以嗎,艾倫?

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thought you might.

    我就知道你會這麼想。

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Is that okay? Alicia, let me tackle the India question first. So just a few comments on the Indian market. As you know, the market was slowing from very strong rates of growth a couple of years ago. It was on a downward trajectory from a market growth perspective even before COVID hit us. I think the markets were growing about 6% in '19, down to about 4% in March of 2020 and below 2% into the first quarter. And then the lockdown hit. And I think any thinking around an Indian rebound, we don't know is the answer. Because it will depend on the status of lockdown in India, state by state, locality by locality. I think that's going to be the main driver on the -- what happens in India.

    這樣可以嗎?艾莉西亞,讓我先回答印度的問題。關於印度市場,我只想說幾點。如您所知,市場成長率已從幾年前的強勁水平放緩。從市場成長的角度來看,即使在新冠疫情爆發之前,它就已經處於下滑趨勢。我認為市場在 2019 年成長了約 6%,2020 年 3 月下降到約 4%,第一季更是低於 2%。然後,封鎖措施就來了。我認為任何關於印度隊能否反彈的想法,我們目前都無法確定答案。因為這取決於印度各邦、各地區的封鎖狀況。我認為這將是影響印度局勢的主要因素。

  • But having said that, that will be what it will be. What I can say is that our business in India is extremely competitive. We have more than 80% of the business winning market share right now, and we're seeing share gains in the last 3 months' reads. 80% of our business in India is in the health, hygiene and nutrition space, so it's very well positioned. So I can't give you a sense of what might be because it will be determined by the progress of the virus and lockdowns. But what I can say is that our business in India is performing very well through the crisis. And as I said, it's very competitive and has a well-positioned portfolio going forward.

    但話說回來,事情最終也會是這樣。我可以肯定地說,我們在印度的業務競爭非常激烈。我們目前擁有超過 80% 的業務市場份額,並且在過去 3 個月的閱讀量中看到了份額的成長。我們在印度的業務有 80% 都集中在健康、衛生和營養領域,因此我們的市場地位非常有利。所以我無法告訴你可能會發生什麼,因為這取決於病毒的發展和封鎖措施。但我可以肯定的是,我們在印度的業務在危機期間表現出色。正如我所說,它極具競爭力,並且擁有未來發展前景良好的投資組合。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. I'm going to pinch a bit more on India and just say I'm very worried about the disease conditions in India. And I think it's important that we think of India as winning. We talk about winning in [mainly] India, and that's how we'll be managing the business. I think there'll be parts of India at any given point in time that are kind of booming, and there'll be other parts that are under lockdown. And the government have shown tremendous ability to respond at a state or city level to the disease commissions. And I think the combination of an agile government and an agile business will serve us very well from a competitive perspective. But it's anybody's guess what way the disease will move.

    是的。我還要再稍微批評一下印度,我非常擔心印度的疫情狀況。我認為重要的是,我們要把印度視為勝利者。我們談論的是在(主要)印度市場取得成功,而這正是我們經營業務的方式。我認為在任何時候,印度都會有一些地區經濟蓬勃發展,而有些地區則處於封鎖狀態。政府已展現出在州或市一級對疾病委員會做出快速反應的強大能力。我認為,靈活的政府和靈活的企業結合,從競爭角度來看,將對我們大有裨益。但這種疾病會如何發展,誰也說不準。

  • As regards sustainable packaging. Let me just say that our Sustainable Living brands continue to grow much faster than the rest of the portfolio. And there are headwinds and tailwinds on consumer adoption on sustainable packaging. The headwind is that, eventually, low oil prices will pass through to low virgin resin pricing, and that makes the differential between virgin resin and post-consumer used, recycled material greater. We welcome the European legislation that starts to put cost against virgin material in order to give an advantage to recycled material. And we hope that, that will accelerate the adoption of more sustainable packaging, particularly plastic packaging.

    關於永續包裝。我想說的是,我們的永續生活品牌成長速度遠超其他品牌。消費者對永續包裝的接受度既有阻力也有順風。不利因素是,低油價最終會傳導至低原生樹脂價格,這將導致原生樹脂與消費後回收材料之間的價差更大。我們歡迎歐洲立法開始對原生材料施加成本壓力,使再生材料更具優勢。我們希望這將加速採用更永續的包裝,特別是塑膠包裝。

  • As regard to your very specific question about detailed consumer growth or decline based on sustainability. That's so precise a data point in an environment where we're seeing gigantic swings. My honest answer is that I have no idea what impact it's having on sales in the short term. But we know that over time, sustainability drives growth, and packaging is a very demonstrable part of sustainability. And all of our divisions have got big pieces of work going on, on moving towards less plastic, better plastic and no plastic options for the packaging.

    關於您提出的關於基於永續性的詳細消費者成長或下降問題,這是一個非常具體的問題。在當前這種波動劇烈的環境下,這是一個非常精確的數據點。老實說,我不知道這會在短期內對銷售產生什麼影響。但我們知道,隨著時間的推移,永續性會推動成長,而包裝是永續性的一個非常明顯的體現。我們所有部門都在大力推進包裝領域減少塑膠使用、改進塑膠包裝以及採用無塑膠包裝的方案。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Okay. Thanks, Alicia. Go over to David Hayes at SocGen. If you could ask a question, David?

    好的。謝謝你,艾莉西亞。請到法國興業銀行找David Hayes。大衛,你能問個問題嗎?

  • David Hayes - Equity Analyst

    David Hayes - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe one on the U.S. sales, one on the margins. So the U.S. sales, just to come back to this discussion on exit rates and obviously the very impressive performance in the quarter. Is there still an element of pantry loading in that market? Obviously, there's pockets of uncertainty and surges in COVID rates. So I'm just trying to understand whether there is still kind of a dynamic that was in March and April that's just gone on for longer. Whether when you talk about the exit rate, you see this continuing at high single-digit growth into the third quarter? And if not, what kind of things changed that? Why would it slow given that exit rate?

    或許一份關於美國銷售額的報告,一份關於利潤率的報告。所以,回到我們之前關於退出率的討論,美國銷售額在本季表現出色。這個市場現在還存在囤貨現象嗎?顯然,目前仍存在一些不確定因素,新冠感染率也時有所上升。所以,我只是想了解一下,三月和四月的那種動態是否仍然存在,只是持續時間更長了。就退出率而言,你認為這一趨勢會持續到第三季度,並保持高個位數的成長嗎?如果不是,是什麼因素改變了這種情況?鑑於目前的退出率,為什麼成長速度會放緩?

  • And then on the margin side, just the restructuring costs, not massively different to last year's first half. You talked about less closures and savings. So is there some COVID one-off costs that you're able to book as restructuring because it's effectively an organizational process change? And I guess related to the cost savings side of it, should we expect quite a step-up in cost savings second half? As you say, you kind of coming out of the sort of reactionary phase and now into more controlling the situation phase.

    至於利潤方面,只是重組成本,與去年上半年相比並沒有太大變化。你談到了減少停業和節省開支。那麼,是否有一些因新冠疫情而產生的一次性成本,可以計入重組費用,因為這實際上是組織流程的改變?我想,就成本節約方面而言,我們是否應該期待下半年成本節約方面會有相當大的提升?正如你所說,你正逐漸走出被動應對的階段,現在正進入掌控局面的階段。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Great. Thanks, David. I'll sort of repeat the points on the U.S. Let me try and be even more direct. Our categories were not particularly impacted by pantry loading. You need to go talk to the paper guys about that. And we have seen sustained high levels of consumption. I think the question that we're trying to get our heads around on how quickly or how long that will carry on for, and we see no signs, quite frankly, of it slowing down at the moment.

    偉大的。謝謝你,大衛。關於美國,我再重複之前的觀點。讓我盡量說得更直接一些。我們的商品分類並未受到食品儲藏量過多的特別影響。你需要去跟報社的人談談這件事。我們已經看到消費水準持續居高不下。我認為我們正在努力弄清楚的問題是,這種趨勢會以多快的速度持續多久,坦白說,目前我們看不到任何放緩的跡象。

  • It comes back to 2 questions. How long will U.S. consumers remain preoccupied with hygiene? We think probably for quite some time. And the second is how long will meals continue to be consumed a home at a differentially higher rate than normal versus consumed out-of-home? And again, I was in China at the time of the second wave of the pandemic, the H1N1, the so-called [swine flu], and we saw it took ages for the Chinese consumer to become comfortable going back to the level of restaurant eating that they exhibited prior to that wave. And I think we're kind of seeing that actually in the rest of the world.

    歸根結底,問題可以歸結為兩個。美國消費者對個人衛生的關注會持續多久?我們認為可能需要相當長一段時間。第二個問題是,在家用餐的比例遠高於在外用餐的比例,這種情況會持續多久?還有一次,我在中國的時候正值第二波疫情(H1N1,即所謂的豬流感)爆發,我們看到中國消費者花了很長時間才重新適應到疫情爆發前在餐館用餐的水平。我認為我們在世界其他地方也看到了這種情況。

  • Bad news for our Food Solutions business, where we're planning on a slower recovery. Good news for our retail foods business. Given the mix that we have in the U.S., we're really benefiting from preoccupation of -- on hygiene and in-home eating, much more so than the unusually large size of American pantries. That's not been a particular asset for us. Graeme?

    對於我們的食品解決方案業務來說,這是個壞消息,我們計劃放緩復甦步伐。這對我們的零售食品業務來說是個好消息。鑑於美國目前的狀況,我們真正受益於人們對衛生和居家用餐的重視,而不是美國人異常龐大的食品儲藏室。這對我們來說並不是一個特別的優勢。格雷姆?

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • David, on restructuring, so you're quite right, we normally have a lower restructuring spend in the first half. Projects tend to get accelerated through the second half and usually the second half phasing is a little bit more. We spent just around about EUR 400 million on restructuring in the first half, which was pretty similar, as you said, to the first half last year. And for the full year, we think will come in maybe EUR 900 million to EUR 1 billion, something around that sort of range. That's less than we expected. So we have slowed down a number of restructuring projects through the first half as we focused on just managing the business going forward. So there'll be a delay there, and that's reflected in that sort of outlook of maybe EUR 900 million to EUR 1 billion.

    David,關於重組,你說得完全正確,我們通常在上半年的重組支出較低。專案往往會在後半段加速推進,而且通常後半段的進度也會更快一些。我們上半年在重組方面花費了大約 4 億歐元,正如你所說,這與去年上半年的情況非常相似。我們認為全年收入可能會在 9 億歐元到 10 億歐元之間,大概在這個範圍內。這比我們預期的要少。因此,上半年我們放緩了一些重組項目,因為我們專注於管理未來的業務。所以這方面會有所延誤,這也反映在預計的9億歐元到10億歐元的預算預期中。

  • On the impact of COVID, no, we haven't taken anything into restructuring from COVID. So you saw in gross margin the impacts of mix, the impacts of all the on-costs in the factory. That's all in the P&L. Even the commitments we made to support communities around the world with donations, that's sitting in the P&L as well. We've just taken that all through the P&L.

    關於新冠疫​​情的影響,不,我們沒有將新冠疫情納入重組計畫。所以,從毛利率可以看到產品組合的影響,以及工廠所有額外成本的影響。所有這些都計入了損益表。甚至我們承諾透過捐款支持世界各地的社區,這些也計入了損益表。我們已經把所有這些都納入了損益表。

  • To the extent, though, that we have to reshape some parts of our business going forward, depending on the world that we face, thinking about the channels which are most impacted -- out-of-home, ice cream and foodservice are examples, if we have to reshape those businesses for the longer term to put them back in a healthy position and to reflect the reality of the sort of future, then that would be done through the normal disciplined process on restructuring business proposals and that would be taken as restructuring. But there's nothing in there in the first half.

    但是,如果我們必須根據我們所面臨的世界形勢,對業務的某些部分進行調整,考慮到受影響最大的管道(例如外賣、冰淇淋和餐飲服務),如果我們必須從長遠角度調整這些業務,使其恢復健康狀態並反映未來的實際情況,那麼這將透過正常的、有紀律的業務重組提案流程來完成,這將被視為重組。但前半部什麼都沒有。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Okay. Thank you, David. Right. We've got time for one last quick question. John Ennis at Goldman Sachs. If you can make it one and make it very quick, we can squeeze it in.

    好的。謝謝你,大衛。正確的。我們還有時間問最後一個問題。約翰·恩尼斯在高盛任職。如果你能一次做好,而且速度很快,我們就能擠出時間來做。

  • John Mark Ennis - Equity Analyst

    John Mark Ennis - Equity Analyst

  • Yes. I'll keep it to one on Latin America. The message on LatAm at the start of the year was quite cautious relative to the flat performance you delivered. So I just wondered if you could quickly provide some color on how that region trended through the quarter to get you to that flat performance. That's it for me.

    是的。關於拉丁美洲,我就只寫一篇。年初時關於拉丁美洲市場的消息相當謹慎,與你們取得的平淡業績形成鮮明對比。所以我想知道您能否簡要介紹該地區在本季度的發展趨勢,從而導致業績持平。就這些了。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Can't hear you, Alan.

    我聽不見你說話,艾倫。

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • I can see -- can't hear you, Alan.

    我能看見你,但聽不見你說話,艾倫。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Sorry, I'll go ahead, and then I'll ask Graeme to give a bit more body. Latin America has been quite a challenging story for us. It was -- pardon me for going to a bit personal on this, but Ecuador was where we saw the first Unilever fatality from COVID, and Central America got absolutely smashed early on in the outbreak. I've been surprised at the resilience of Brazil and Argentina where the businesses continued to do well. We believe we're gaining competitively. And so the innovation that we put in place on business model, like B2B route-to-market, is helping us. It won't be -- Mexico, Brazil, Argentina will not be growth markets, I don't think, for the next quarter. But I'll hand over to Graeme to give a little bit more detail on that.

    抱歉,我先來,然後我會請格雷姆再補充一些細節。拉丁美洲對我們來說一直是一個充滿挑戰的故事。——請原諒我談及一些個人經歷,但厄瓜多爾是聯合利華首例因新冠肺炎死亡的案例發生地,中美洲在疫情爆發初期遭受了重創。巴西和阿根廷的商業韌性讓我感到驚訝,兩國企業持續發展良好。我們相信我們在競爭中正在取得進步。因此,我們在商業模式方面實施的創新,例如 B2B 市場管道,正在幫助我們。我認為,在下一個季度,墨西哥、巴西和阿根廷不會成為成長型市場。但接下來我會把麥克風交給格雷姆,讓他更詳細地介紹。

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • John, let me just size Latin America broadly by country for you. Brazil is about 4% of the region for us. Argentina is less than 15%. Now Mexico is about 15%, similar size. And Chile is single digits, high single digits. So that's the size of things. Really, the bit of an epicenter in -- of the crisis in Latin America, 4 out of the top 10 countries by number of COVID cases actually in Latin America is Brazil, Chile, Peru and Mexico. So we -- you can expect, I think, the peak of cases to be not yet reached. You'd expect to maybe reach that in Q3 or even in Q4. Brazil, which in the second quarter for us was down by low single digits, we expect a very deep and prolonged recession there. Unemployment forecast is to reach 17%. GDP, minus 10%. We're seeing a lot of devaluation. So a tough situation to manage on the ground there.

    約翰,我先大致以國家為你們介紹一下拉丁美洲的規模。巴西在我們這個地區約佔 4%。阿根廷佔比不到15%。現在墨西哥約佔15%,面積差不多。智利的感染人數也只有個位數,接近兩位數。這就是事情的規模。事實上,拉丁美洲是這場危機的中心之一,在以新冠肺炎病例數排名的前 10 個國家中,有 4 個位於拉丁美洲,分別是巴西、智利、秘魯和墨西哥。所以,我認為,我們可以預期病例高峰尚未到來。預計可能在第三季甚至第四季達到這個目標。巴西第二季的經濟下滑幅度接近兩位數,我們預期巴西將出現非常嚴重且持續時間很長的衰退。預計失業率將達17%。國內生產毛額下降10%。我們看到很多貨幣貶值。所以,當地局勢很難控制。

  • As Alan said, we have an unbelievably strong business in Brazil, which has actually become stronger through the economic crisis of the last 3 years. We've fundamentally changed our route to market, our -- with tremendous work done with our e-B2B capability, Compra Agora in Brazil, and that will put us in good stead. We've also taken all of activity through the economic crisis to position the portfolio with Tier 3, Tier 4 brands, et cetera. So it's value- and recession-ready. But it is going to be tough, particularly in Brazil, I think, over the course of the second half and beyond because they're not yet at the peak of the crisis.

    正如艾倫所說,我們在巴西的業務非常強勁,而且在過去三年的經濟危機中,我們的業務實際上變得更加強勁了。我們從根本上改變了我們的市場管道,我們在巴西的 e-B2B 能力 Compra Agora 方面取得了巨大成就,這將使我們處於有利地位。我們也利用經濟危機期間的所有活動,調整產品組合,使其包含三線、四線品牌等等。所以它既有價值又能應付經濟衰退。但我認為,尤其是在巴西,下半年及以後將會非常艱難,因為他們還沒有達到危機的頂峰。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Okay. Thanks, Graeme. Thanks for the question, John, and keeping it short. Right. We must stop there. I know there's been a quite a number of people who haven't been able to get their questions in. Please e-mail the IR team, and we'll arrange a time to talk to you this morning. So please get in touch.

    好的。謝謝你,格雷姆。謝謝你的提問,約翰,也謝謝你言簡意賅。正確的。我們必須就此打住。我知道有不少人還沒能提交他們的問題。請給投資者關係團隊發送電子郵件,我們會安排時間今天上午和您談談。所以請聯絡我們。

  • Apart from that, thank you very much for listening, and enjoy the rest of the day. Thanks. Buh-bye.

    除此之外,非常感謝您的聆聽,祝您今天餘下的時間愉快。謝謝。再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This now concludes the call. Thank you all very much for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.

    通話到此結束。非常感謝各位的出席。現在您可以斷開線路了。