聯合利華 (UL) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello and welcome to the Unilever Q4 and Full Year 2021 Results and Strategic Update. (Operator Instructions)

    您好,歡迎來到聯合利華第四季度和 2021 年全年業績和戰略更新。 (操作員說明)

  • And with that, I'd like to hand over to Richard Williams, Unilever Head of Investor Relations, to begin the presentation. Please go ahead.

    有了這個,我想請聯合利華投資者關係主管理查德威廉姆斯開始演講。請繼續。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Unilever's Full year results and strategic update. We expect prepared remarks today to be around 45 minutes followed by Q&A of around 45 minutes. All of today's webcast is available live transcribed on the screen as part of our accessibility program.

    謝謝你。早上好,歡迎閱讀聯合利華的全年業績和戰略更新。我們預計今天準備好的發言時間約為 45 分鐘,隨後問答時間約為 45 分鐘。作為我們無障礙計劃的一部分,今天的所有網絡廣播都可以在屏幕上實時轉錄。

  • First, I draw your attention to the disclaimer to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures.

    首先,我提請您注意對前瞻性陳述和非公認會計原則措施的免責聲明。

  • And with that, let me hand straight away over to Alan.

    有了這個,讓我直接交給艾倫。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Richard.

    謝謝,理查德。

  • We are here to talk about our full year results, and our 2021 results have been good. We've delivered our fastest growth in 9 years. It's been driven in line with our strategic priorities. And we've managed margins to around flat with underlying earnings per share up 5%.

    我們在這裡談論我們的全年業績,我們 2021 年的業績一直很好。我們實現了 9 年來最快的增長。它的驅動符合我們的戰略重點。我們將利潤率控制在基本持平,每股基本收益增長了 5%。

  • But before we get into the detail, I do want to touch on a few topics that are top of mind for many of our investors and have been top of mind for the Board and me over the last weeks. And we'll come back to some of these in more detail later.

    但在我們深入細節之前,我確實想談談我們的許多投資者最關心的幾個話題,這些話題在過去幾週一直是董事會和我最關心的話題。稍後我們將更詳細地討論其中的一些內容。

  • Let me start by sharing unambiguously that I am dissatisfied with the recent value creation that Unilever has delivered for our investors. We have the potential to do a lot more with the portfolio that we have, and my leadership team and I are 100% focused on doing just that, delivering value for our shareholders.

    讓我首先明確地分享我對聯合利華最近為我們的投資者創造的價值感到不滿。我們有潛力利用我們擁有的投資組合做更多事情,我和我的領導團隊 100% 專注於做到這一點,為我們的股東創造價值。

  • Our first priority, of course, and the thing that the vast majority of people in Unilever are focused exclusively on is organic growth. That is our day job.

    當然,我們的首要任務,也是聯合利華絕大多數人都專注於的事情是有機增長。那是我們的日常工作。

  • At the same time, though, it's important to chart the long-term direction of the company. And after months of careful review, our Board concluded that accelerating the shift of Unilever's portfolio into consumer health and well-being would position the company for faster growth in the coming decades.

    不過,與此同時,規劃公司的長期發展方向也很重要。經過數月的仔細審查,我們的董事會得出結論,加速聯合利華的投資組合向消費者健康和福祉的轉變將使公司在未來幾十年實現更快的增長。

  • And it's this conclusion that lay behind the confidential discussions that we were having with GSK and Pfizer. That being said, we've listened carefully to our shareholders, and we've heard the message that there's currently no support for a move the size of the GSK Consumer Health business.

    我們與葛蘭素史克(GSK)和輝瑞公司(Pfizer)進行的秘密討論背後正是這個結論。話雖如此,我們已經仔細聽取了股東的意見,並且我們聽到了目前不支持 GSK 消費者健康業務規模的舉措的信息。

  • We remain resolved in the direction of our portfolio evolution, but we will not be proposing transformational acquisitions for the foreseeable future. They are off our agenda.

    我們仍然在投資組合演變的方向上下定決心,但在可預見的未來,我們不會提議進行轉型收購。他們不在我們的議程上。

  • Instead, we intend to improve Unilever's value creation in the following ways. First, we'll continue to accelerate organic growth, investing in our biggest and best brands, which are in great health, stepping up the benchmark quality of our products and continuing to strengthen our innovation. We will build our position in the growth markets of the future, starting with the U.S., India and China. And e-commerce remains both an overarching priority and a part of the business that continues to grow very well.

    相反,我們打算通過以下方式改善聯合利華的價值創造。首先,我們將繼續加速有機增長,投資我們最大和最好的健康品牌,提高我們產品的基準質量,並繼續加強我們的創新。我們將從美國、印度和中國開始,在未來的增長市場中建立自己的地位。電子商務仍然是首要任務,也是繼續發展良好的業務的一部分。

  • Secondly, a powerful, new organization model will be a further accelerant. An operating model that moves away from a heavy matrix is simpler, more focused and provides greater accountability. It is designed for growth but does so at materially lower cost.

    其次,強大的新組織模式將成為進一步的推動力。擺脫繁重矩陣的運營模式更簡單,更專注,並提供更大的責任感。它是為增長而設計的,但成本要低得多。

  • And thirdly, we will continue to reshape our portfolio but through bolt-on acquisitions and selective disposals. We've built substantial, fast-growing new businesses in Prestige Beauty and in Functional Nutrition, and this will continue to be the direction of travel for our portfolio. Our capital allocation will be disciplined, and we will maintain Unilever's historically high levels of return on invested capital.

    第三,我們將繼續通過補強收購和選擇性出售來重塑我們的投資組合。我們在 Prestige Beauty 和功能性營養領域建立了大量、快速增長的新業務,這將繼續成為我們投資組合的發展方向。我們的資本分配將有紀律,我們將保持聯合利華歷史上高水平的投資資本回報率。

  • We exited 2021 with growth momentum, and we expect that to continue. Our goal is to keep growth at least in the top half of our 3% to 5% multiyear range.

    我們以增長勢頭結束了 2021 年,我們預計這種情況會持續下去。我們的目標是至少將增長保持在 3% 至 5% 多年區間的上半部分。

  • 2022 has started well. But the biggest challenge we'll face this year is navigating a further step-up in input cost inflation. We have been leading on pricing, and it's working. We will invest competitively in advertising, in R&D and in operational CapEx. As a result, our margin will be down in 2022, though, as Graeme will show later, the empirical experience we have is that we can expect a restoration in margin quickly, with the majority coming back in 2023.

    2022年開局不錯。但今年我們將面臨的最大挑戰是進一步加大投入成本通脹。我們一直在定價方面處於領先地位,並且正在發揮作用。我們將在廣告、研發和運營資本支出方面進行有競爭力的投資。因此,我們的利潤率將在 2022 年下降,不過,正如 Graeme 稍後將展示的那樣,我們的經驗經驗是,我們可以預期利潤率會迅速恢復,其中大部分會在 2023 年恢復。

  • Right. So this is how we'll run today. First, I'll give a quick overview of 2021 before Graeme takes you through the details of the results. I'll then give a strategic progress update, which will include portfolio evolution and some more details on the new operational model that we announced last month. It's a major change for Unilever. Graeme will then close with the outlook for 2022 and beyond.

    正確的。所以這就是我們今天的運行方式。首先,在 Graeme 向您介紹結果的詳細信息之前,我將簡要概述 2021 年。然後,我將提供戰略進展更新,其中將包括投資組合演變以及我們上個月宣布的新運營模式的更多細節。這對聯合利華來說是一個重大變化。然後,格雷姆將結束對 2022 年及以後的展望。

  • So let's take a quick look at 2021. We delivered Q4 underlying sales growth of 4.9%, driven by price with volumes flat. And that resulted in a full year of 4.5% underlying sales growth, well into the upper end of our multiyear framework of 3% to 5%. Volume growth for the full year was 1.6%.

    因此,讓我們快速回顧一下 2021 年。在價格與銷量持平的推動下,我們實現了 4.9% 的第四季度基本銷售額增長。這導致全年基本銷售額增長 4.5%,完全進入我們 3% 至 5% 的多年框架的上限。全年銷量增長1.6%。

  • Pricing stepped up to its highest level in a decade as we responded to the significant inflation that we're seeing across commodities and other input costs. We believe that landing price at speed is the right thing to do. It's critical to preserving our ability to continue to invest in our brands.

    隨著我們對商品和其他投入成本的顯著通脹做出反應,定價上升至十年來的最高水平。我們認為,快速落地價格是正確的做法。這對於保持我們繼續投資品牌的能力至關重要。

  • At the same time, we maintained good levels of competitiveness, ending the year at 53% business winning value share, posting a second full year of growth that is competitive.

    與此同時,我們保持了良好的競爭力水平,以 53% 的業務獲勝價值份額結束了這一年,實現了具有競爭力的第二個全年增長。

  • Underlying operating margin for the year was 18.4%, which is down 10 bps versus last year and in line with our guidance of around flat.

    全年基本營業利潤率為 18.4%,比去年下降 10 個基點,符合我們持平的指引。

  • Underlying earnings per share were up 5.5% in current currency and 7.8% in constant currency.

    按當前貨幣計算,每股基本收益增長 5.5%,按固定貨幣計算增長 7.8%。

  • Free cash flow remained strong at EUR 6.4 billion, albeit down year-on-year versus a record delivery in 2020. Well, remember, we focused the business on cash in a period of great uncertainty, and Graeme will give more details on this later.

    自由現金流保持強勁,為 64 億歐元,儘管與 2020 年創紀錄的交付相比同比下降。好吧,請記住,我們在充滿不確定性的時期將業務重點放在現金上,Graeme 稍後將提供更多細節.

  • I do want briefly to put our 2021 delivery in the context of recent years'. At 4.5% underlying sales growth, 2021 was the highest we delivered in nearly a decade. Of course, this was helped by the relatively low comparator in 2020 as we managed the business through the pandemic. But on a 2-year basis, growth is back above 3% and has been accelerating during the year led by pricing. And that's despite some parts of the business, for example, Food Solutions, still not having fully recovered versus 2019.

    我確實想簡單地將我們 2021 年的交付放在近年來的背景下。 2021 年的基本銷售額增長率為 4.5%,是我們近十年來的最高水平。當然,這得益於 2020 年相對較低的比較器,因為我們在大流行期間管理業務。但在 2 年的基礎上,增長率又回到了 3% 以上,並且在定價的推動下在這一年裡一直在加速。儘管該業務的某些部分,例如食品解決方案,與 2019 年相比仍未完全恢復。

  • As you know, restoring Unilever's competitiveness has been a key focus for us over the last 3 years. Competitiveness had fallen to a level that was unacceptable. And through our sharp 5-point strategy and more focus on business fundamentals, we have made a good progress with 53% of our business winning share in both 2020 and 2021.

    如您所知,在過去 3 年中,恢復聯合利華的競爭力一直是我們關注的重點。競爭力已經下降到無法接受的程度。通過我們敏銳的 5 點戰略和更加關注業務基本面,我們取得了良好的進展,在 2020 年和 2021 年均取得了 53% 的業務獲勝份額。

  • Growth remains our priority, but margin progression is, of course, also an important component of value creation. Underlying operating margin was around flat in 2021 despite the inflationary conditions.

    增長仍然是我們的首要任務,但利潤增長當然也是價值創造的重要組成部分。儘管存在通貨膨脹情況,但 2021 年的基本營業利潤率基本持平。

  • So overall, good progress in '21. Our growth momentum is building. We stepped up pricing significantly in a heavily inflationary environment while delivering strong earnings. And we maintained our restored competitiveness. But we know there is more to do and further accelerating growth remains our #1 priority. I'll come back to this when I talk about our strategy later in the presentation.

    總的來說,21 年取得了良好的進展。我們的增長勢頭正在增強。在高通脹環境下,我們顯著提高了定價,同時實現了強勁的收益。我們保持了恢復的競爭力。但我們知道還有更多工作要做,進一步加速增長仍然是我們的第一要務。當我稍後在演示文稿中討論我們的策略時,我會回到這一點。

  • Now over to Graeme for a few more details on 2021. Graeme?

    現在轉到格雷姆了解 2021 年的更多細節。格雷姆?

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Alan, and good morning, everyone. First of all, let me cover underlying sales growth.

    謝謝,艾倫,大家早上好。首先,讓我介紹一下潛在的銷售增長。

  • While the 2021 quarterly growth numbers were clearly impacted by the comparator, growth progressively stepped up on an average 2-year stack basis and is accelerating. We continue to land pricing as inflationary pressures increased through 2021, and we expect further increases in 2022. I'll give you more on that later in the outlook section.

    雖然 2021 年季度增長數字明顯受到比較器的影響,但增長在平均 2 年堆棧基礎上逐漸加快,並且正在加速。隨著到 2021 年通脹壓力增加,我們繼續土地定價,我們預計 2022 年將進一步上漲。我將在展望部分稍後為您提供更多信息。

  • We have started seeing some volume elasticity, especially in our markets where pricing has been significant. But these are well within our expectations.

    我們已經開始看到一些銷量彈性,尤其是在定價非常重要的市場中。但這些都在我們的預期之內。

  • While volume growth for the year was positive, there are a few puts and takes within that number. For example, the recovery of Food Solutions, where volumes grew at over 20%, and, in contrast, Southeast Asia, where lockdown restrictions, as we talked about in our last results call, had a 1% negative impact on reported volume growth just in Q3 alone.

    雖然今年的交易量增長是積極的,但這個數字中有一些看跌期權。例如,Food Solutions 的複蘇,其銷量增長超過 20%,相比之下,東南亞,正如我們在上次業績電話會議中談到的那樣,封鎖限制對報告的銷量增長僅產生了 1% 的負面影響僅在第三季度。

  • Turnover for the year was EUR 52.4 billion, and that's up 3.4% versus 2020. As already mentioned, underlying sales growth contributed 4.5%, and we saw a positive impact from acquisitions and disposals of 1.3% with Liquid I.V., Horlicks, SmartyPants and, more recently, Paula's Choice being the main contributors to that. Currency had a negative impact of 2.4% as the U.S. dollar and some emerging markets currencies weakened against the euro. Based on spot rates, we would now expect a positive currency translation impact of around about 2% on turnover and on EPS for 2022.

    全年營業額為 524 億歐元,與 2020 年相比增長 3.4%。如前所述,基礎銷售額增長貢獻了 4.5%,我們看到 Liquid IV、Horlicks、SmartyPants 和最近,Paula's Choice 成為了這方面的主要貢獻者。由於美元和一些新興市場貨幣兌歐元走弱,貨幣產生了 2.4% 的負面影響。根據即期匯率,我們現在預計 2022 年營業額和每股收益將產生約 2% 左右的積極貨幣換算影響。

  • Turning to our divisions. Beauty & Personal Care grew 3.8% in 2021 with 0.8% from volume and 3% from price, with pricing stepping up across all categories. In 2021, we saw a growth step-up in categories most impacted by social restrictions during 2020. That's categories like Deodorants, Hair and skin care. These grew 4% in the year and are now flat on a 2-year CAGR basis. Social occasions in many of our markets remain below pre-COVID levels with people continuing to work from home and restrictions being reintroduced in some places.

    談到我們的部門。美容和個人護理產品在 2021 年增長 3.8%,銷量增長 0.8%,價格增長 3%,所有類別的價格都在上漲。 2021 年,我們看到 2020 年受社會限制影響最大的類別出現增長。例如除臭劑、頭髮和護膚品等類別。這些在一年中增長了 4%,現在在 2 年復合年增長率的基礎上持平。我們許多市場的社交場合仍低於 COVID 之前的水平,人們繼續在家工作,並且在某些地方重新引入了限制。

  • We continue to innovate at a greater pace and with greater scale in BPC with innovations landing on our global brands. For example, Dove, where we launched a range of both liquid and foaming hand washes, which are enriched with Dove moisturizers to mitigate against dryness after regular washing while still providing germ protection in seconds; or Rexona, where we rolled out patented technology to the core ranges of the Rexona brand, offering the first ever 72-hour protection in the core of the brand.

    隨著創新登陸我們的全球品牌,我們將繼續以更快的速度和更大的規模在 BPC 進行創新。例如,Dove,我們推出了一系列液體和泡沫洗手液,這些洗手液富含 Dove 保濕劑,可在定期洗滌後減輕乾燥,同時仍可在幾秒鐘內提供細菌保護;或 Rexona,我們在 Rexona 品牌的核心系列中推出了專利技術,在該品牌的核心產品中首次提供 72 小時保護。

  • Skin Cleansing declined versus strong double-digit growth in the prior year but remains significantly ahead of 2019 levels with a 2-year CAGR of 6%. And Prestige Beauty continues to be a big growth contributor for Beauty & Personal Care, growing strongly in 2021 and, in fact, by double digits on a 2-year CAGR basis.

    與去年強勁的兩位數增長相比,皮膚清潔有所下降,但仍顯著領先於 2019 年的水平,2 年復合年增長率為 6%。 Prestige Beauty 繼續成為美容和個人護理領域的重要增長貢獻者,在 2021 年強勁增長,事實上,在 2 年的複合年增長率基礎上實現了兩位數的增長。

  • Growth in Foods & Refreshment was 5.6% in '21, well balanced between volume and pricing. Our in-home portfolio was flat against a high-growth comparator, leaving the 2-year CAGR at 6%. This was driven by strong core brand growth and by innovation such as Magnum Double Gold Caramel Billionaire; our Knorr zero-salt meals; and the Knorr Rinde Mas product, which we launched in Latin America.

    21 年食品和點心的增長率為 5.6%,在數量和價格之間取得了很好的平衡。我們的家庭投資組合與高增長的比較器持平,使 2 年的複合年增長率為 6%。這是由強勁的核心品牌增長和 Magnum Double Gold Caramel Billionaire 等創新推動的;我們的家樂零鹽餐;以及我們在拉丁美洲推出的 Knorr Rinde Mas 產品。

  • Out-of-home, which includes our Food Solutions and out-of-home Ice Cream business, grew by over 20% but is still down 4% on a 2-year CAGR basis. The recovery of our Food Solutions business accelerated throughout the year as restaurants, offices and schools reopened, and we saw our 2 largest food solutions markets, which are the China and the U.S., return to prepandemic turnover levels in the second half.

    戶外,包括我們的食品解決方案和戶外冰淇淋業務,增長了 20% 以上,但在 2 年的複合年增長率基礎上仍下降了 4%。隨著餐廳、辦公室和學校的重新開放,我們的食品解決方案業務全年加速復蘇,我們看到中國和美國這兩個最大的食品解決方案市場在下半年恢復到疫情前的營業額水平。

  • Home Care grew 3.9% in '21 with price growth of 3.1% and volume growth of 0.7%. Pricing stepped up significantly in the second half to over 6% with limited price growth in the first half. Laundry grew by 6% in the year, bringing the 2-year CAGR to 4%. And while Home & Hygiene declined versus a very strong comparator, it does remain up 6% on that 2-year CAGR basis.

    家庭護理在 21 年增長 3.9%,價格增長 3.1%,銷量增長 0.7%。下半年價格大幅上漲至 6% 以上,上半年價格漲幅有限。洗衣業在這一年增長了 6%,使 2 年的複合年增長率達到 4%。雖然家庭和衛生與非常強勁的比較相比有所下降,但在 2 年復合年增長率的基礎上,它確實保持了 6% 的增長。

  • We're rolling out our Clean Future technology now across our home care markets with formulations and products that deliver superior performance whilst also being kinder and friendlier to the planet. For example, our Cif antibacterial range, which is scientifically proven to kill 99.9% of bacteria and viruses with a cleaning agent that is 100% naturally derived.

    我們現在正在我們的家庭護理市場推出我們的清潔未來技術,其配方和產品提供卓越的性能,同時也對地球更加友好和友好。例如,我們的 Cif 抗菌系列經科學證明可使用 100% 天然來源的清潔劑殺死 99.9% 的細菌和病毒。

  • Now let me turn to our regions. Our biggest region, Asia/AMET/RUB, which is nearly 50% of our business, grew 5.8% in the full year with a mix of both price and volume. India performed strongly, growing by over 13%. We stepped up pricing in India during the year while maintaining positive volume. China saw good volume-led growth of over 14% with strong growth across all divisions, although we are currently seeing a slowdown in market growth driven by online channels.

    現在讓我談談我們的地區。我們最大的地區,亞洲/AMET/RUB,占我們業務的近 50%,全年增長 5.8%,價格和數量都有。印度表現強勁,增長超過 13%。我們在這一年提高了在印度的定價,同時保持了積極的銷量。中國實現了超過 14% 的良好銷量增長,所有部門都實現了強勁增長,儘管我們目前看到在線渠道推動的市場增長放緩。

  • In Southeast Asia, Indonesia remains a challenged business for us with disappointing performance. Competitors there are backwards integrated into the supply chain, and they're, therefore, less exposed to inflation than Unilever is. Although that's a tough competitive dynamic, we're also clear that we have not been on top of our game in Indonesia when it comes to innovation and driving market development through marketing fundamentals. We have put strong plans in place to address this, but it will take time.

    在東南亞,印度尼西亞對我們來說仍然是一個充滿挑戰的業務,表現令人失望。那裡的競爭對手向後整合到供應鏈中,因此,與聯合利華相比,他們受到通貨膨脹的影響較小。儘管這是一個艱難的競爭動態,但我們也很清楚,在創新和通過營銷基礎推動市場發展方面,我們在印度尼西亞的比賽中並沒有處於領先地位。我們已經制定了強有力的計劃來解決這個問題,但這需要時間。

  • Other Southeast Asian markets like Vietnam recovered in Q4 following the severe lockdowns in the third quarter, although the local economies still remain overall quite impacted by the pandemic restrictions.

    在第三季度的嚴重封鎖之後,越南等其他東南亞市場在第四季度復甦,儘管當地經濟總體上仍然受到大流行限制的相當大的影響。

  • In Turkey, we saw another year of strong growth with both price and volume up for a second year running.

    在土耳其,我們又看到了強勁增長的一年,價格和銷量連續第二年上漲。

  • Latin America grew by 9% in the year, all from price. Pricing in LatAm stepped up significantly through the year, and we're exiting Q4 at 14% price growth with some elasticity impact on volumes now showing. We have a really strong track record of landing pricing in the region, and we will continue to take price, but we will not compromise on the long-term health of the business. Our largest market, Brazil, grew double digit from price with volumes slightly down.

    拉丁美洲在這一年增長了 9%,全部來自價格。拉丁美洲的價格在全年顯著上漲,我們以 14% 的價格增長退出第四季度,目前顯示出對數量的一些彈性影響。我們在該地區的落地定價方面有著非常出色的記錄,我們將繼續定價,但我們不會在業務的長期健康上妥協。我們最大的市場巴西價格上漲了兩位數,但銷量略有下降。

  • North America grew 3.4% versus a very strong comparator, and we saw our growth return to competitive levels in our biggest market, which is the U.S. We are landing pricing with our customers and consumers and managing volumes well. Higher demand for in-home foods and ice cream has continued throughout the year, and our health and well-being and Prestige Beauty businesses are now strong vectors to North America's growth, contributing over 2% USG in the full year for North America.

    北美增長了 3.4% 與一個非常強勁的比較,我們看到我們的增長在我們最大的市場美國恢復到競爭水平。我們正在與我們的客戶和消費者一起定價,並很好地管理數量。全年對家庭食品和冰淇淋的需求持續增長,我們的健康和福祉以及 Prestige Beauty 業務現在是北美增長的強大載體,全年為北美貢獻了超過 2% 的 USG。

  • Europe was flat in the year with only slightly positive volume and price. The pricing environment in Europe remains difficult. In 2021, our list price increases were still relatively limited despite high levels of inflation. And France, in particular, remains a key area of pricing challenge. The U.K., which is our biggest market in Europe, declined versus a strong comparator. European out-of-home ice cream improved but still remains well below pre-COVID levels as travel restrictions hit the critical summer ice cream season in '21.

    歐洲在這一年中持平,只有少量積極的數量和價格。歐洲的定價環境依然艱難。 2021 年,儘管通貨膨脹率很高,但我們的標價漲幅仍然相對有限。尤其是法國,仍然是定價挑戰的關鍵領域。英國是我們在歐洲最大的市場,與強大的對比市場相比有所下降。歐洲的戶外冰淇淋有所改善,但仍遠低於 COVID 之前的水平,因為旅行限制在 21 年進入關鍵的夏季冰淇淋季節。

  • Underlying operating margin for the year was 18.4%. That's down 10 basis points from last year. Our gross margin was down 120 basis points. Despite stepping up pricing significantly, this wasn't enough to fully offset the high cost inflation we're seeing across our raw materials, packaging and distribution costs globally. We have been leading on pricing in most markets, and those increases are landing on the shopper's shelf.

    全年基本營業利潤率為 18.4%。這比去年下降了10個基點。我們的毛利率下降了 120 個基點。儘管大幅提高了定價,但這還不足以完全抵消我們在全球原材料、包裝和分銷成本中看到的高成本通脹。我們在大多數市場的定價方面一直處於領先地位,而這些漲幅正在落在購物者的貨架上。

  • Pricing is a relative exercise, and competition is following with a degree of lag. Volume elasticities are so far settling at around the levels we would expect for this level of relative pricing. And we're pleased to have maintained competitiveness while taking these pricing actions.

    定價是一項相對的活動,競爭在一定程度上滯後。到目前為止,成交量彈性穩定在我們對這一相對定價水平的預期水平附近。我們很高興在採取這些定價行動的同時保持了競爭力。

  • Within gross margin, there was a 30 basis point benefit from the unwind of some of the additional COVID costs and negative mix that we had in 2020.

    在毛利率中,我們在 2020 年的一些額外 COVID 成本和負面組合的解除帶來了 30 個基點的收益。

  • Brand and marketing investment in constant currencies was EUR 7 billion, so in line with the investment levels of prior years. BMI as a percentage of turnover was down 90 basis points. But if we look one level further down on BMI, we see a considered and responsible approach by our markets, focusing on local market dynamics and taking opportunities to invest competitively at greater efficiency. For example, we stepped up BMI spend in North America, including in our fast-growing health and well-being portfolio.

    以固定匯率計算的品牌和營銷投資為 70 億歐元,與往年的投資水平一致。 BMI 佔營業額的百分比下降了 90 個基點。但如果我們再往下看 BMI,我們會看到我們的市場採取了一種深思熟慮和負責任的方法,專注於當地市場動態,並抓住機會以更高的效率進行有競爭力的投資。例如,我們增加了在北美的 BMI 支出,包括我們快速增長的健康和福祉組合。

  • Overheads were down 20 basis points through productivity programs and turnover leverage.

    通過生產力計劃和營業額槓桿,間接費用下降了 20 個基點。

  • Underlying earnings per share, as Alan said, were up by 5.5% in current currency and by 7.8% in constant currency. Operational performance was the main driver of earnings growth while the reduction in the number of shares from buybacks contributed 90 basis points. An increase in minority interest in India were part offset by lower finance costs and higher income from noncurrent investments.

    正如艾倫所說,每股基本收益按當前貨幣計算增長了 5.5%,按固定貨幣計算增長了 7.8%。經營業績是盈利增長的主要驅動力,而回購股份數量的減少貢獻了 90 個基點。印度少數股權的增加部分被較低的財務成本和較高的非流動投資收入所抵消。

  • Looking at 2021 through the lens of our multiyear financial framework. We delivered growth well within our multiyear framework of between 3% and 5%. Underlying operating margin was down 10 basis points and cash was once again strong at EUR 6.4 billion but down versus the record delivery from last year, which saw lower CapEx spend and a big focus on working capital. For 2021, we have declared a 3% increase to the dividend, taking it to EUR 4.4 billion for the year.

    從我們多年財務框架的角度來看 2021 年。我們在 3% 到 5% 的多年框架內實現了良好的增長。基本營業利潤率下降 10 個基點,現金再次強勁,達到 64 億歐元,但與去年創紀錄的交付相比有所下降,去年資本支出支出減少,並且重點關注營運資本。對於 2021 年,我們宣布將股息增加 3%,全年達到 44 億歐元。

  • Looking at other long-term financial metrics. We delivered another year of EUR 2 billion savings through the various programs that run across all lines of the Unilever P&L. This includes cost of goods savings such as ingredient agility and product logic, savings from our buying scale and the payback from our restructuring investments.

    查看其他長期財務指標。我們通過在聯合利華損益表各行運行的各種計劃,又節省了 20 億歐元。這包括商品成本節省,例如成分敏捷性和產品邏輯、我們購買規模的節省以及我們重組投資的回報。

  • Restructuring was EUR 0.6 billion, which was below the run rate of the last few years because of delays in projects due to COVID disruption and to create the space needed to implement the new operational model in 2022. We still expect to spend EUR 2 billion across 2021 and 2022, including the restructuring investment to create and land the new operational model. And thereafter, from 2023 onwards, we expect to return to the pre-2017 restructuring levels of around 1% of turnover.

    重組為 6 億歐元,低於過去幾年的運行率,原因是 COVID 中斷導致項目延誤,並為 2022 年實施新的運營模式創造了所需的空間。我們仍預計將花費 20 億歐元2021年和2022年,包括重組投資,創造和落地新的運營模式。此後,從 2023 年起,我們預計營業額將恢復到 2017 年重組前的水平,約佔營業額的 1%。

  • Return on invested capital for the year was 17.2%, in line with our guidance of mid to high teens. The decrease was due to goodwill and intangibles from the Horlicks and Paula's Choice acquisitions, partly offset by an increase in profit.

    全年投資資本回報率為 17.2%,符合我們對中高青少年的指導。減少是由於收購 Horlicks 和 Paula's Choice 的商譽和無形資產,部分被利潤增加所抵消。

  • Leverage at 2.2x remains broadly in line with our target of around 2x.

    2.2 倍的槓桿率大致符合我們 2 倍左右的目標。

  • So summarizing 2021, we improved our growth momentum during the year, but we are clear that there's still more to do. Pricing stepped up significantly in a high inflationary environment, and we're pleased to have delivered strong earnings and maintained competitiveness at the same time.

    總結 2021 年,我們在這一年改善了增長勢頭,但我們很清楚還有更多工作要做。在高通脹環境下,定價顯著提高,我們很高興在實現強勁收益的同時保持競爭力。

  • And with that, I'm going to pass you back to Alan.

    有了這個,我要把你傳給艾倫。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • As Graeme said, we believe that 2021 has seen a step-up in Unilever's performance and that we have built momentum in the business, and that's driven by disciplined action on the strategic priorities that we set out a year ago. It is these five choices which will sit at the heart of our strategy for value creation.

    正如 Graeme 所說,我們相信 2021 年聯合利華的業績有所提升,我們已經在業務中建立了動力,這是由我們一年前製定的戰略重點的嚴格行動推動的。正是這五個選擇將成為我們價值創造戰略的核心。

  • So let's start with winning with our brands. We have 13 EUR 1 billion brands that together make up 50% of our turnover. They grew an aggregate 6.4% in 2021. And some key performances to call out here are Dove, which grew 8%, which is the fastest growth in 8 years; Hellmann's, which grew 11%; and our ice cream brands, Magnum and Ben & Jerry's, both growing 9%, and all against strong comparators. So these are not COVID bounce backs.

    因此,讓我們從以我們的品牌取勝開始吧。我們擁有 13 個價值 10 億歐元的品牌,合計占我們營業額的 50%。他們在 2021 年總共增長了 6.4%。這裡要提到的一些關鍵表現是 Dove,增長了 8%,這是 8 年來最快的增長; Hellmann's,增長 11%;我們的冰淇淋品牌 Magnum 和 Ben & Jerry's 都增長了 9%,並且都與強大的比較公司相抗衡。所以這些不是COVID反彈。

  • Behind the success of these brands is product superiority and great innovation, and we continue to improve our performance in both these areas. Superiority in blind testing versus competition is now over 70% of tested turnover, and that's up from less than 50% in 2019. And our focus on driving bigger, better and more impactful innovation delivered over EUR 1 billion of incremental turnover in 2021. That's double the delivery in 2020. Yes, double. Our brand power remains strong with over 80% of our turnover increasing or holding brand power.

    這些品牌成功的背後是產品優勢和巨大的創新,我們在這兩個領域都在不斷提升我們的表現。與競爭相比,盲測的優勢現在佔測試營業額的 70% 以上,高於 2019 年的不到 50%。我們專注於推動更大、更好和更有影響力的創新,在 2021 年實現了超過 10 億歐元的營業額增量。 2020 年的交付量翻倍。是的,翻倍。我們的品牌力保持強勁,超過 80% 的營業額增加或保持品牌力。

  • We've chosen to prioritize the key markets for the future, the U.S., India and China, and other key emerging markets. All 3 of the highest-priority countries delivered strong and competitive growth in 2021 and on a CAGR basis over the last 2 years. The U.S., for example, grew almost 4% on top of a record growth year in 2020, while India and China grew well into double digits, albeit versus weaker comparators.

    我們選擇優先考慮未來的主要市場,即美國、印度和中國以及其他主要新興市場。在 2021 年以及過去 2 年的複合年增長率基礎上,所有 3 個最優先的國家都實現了強勁且具有競爭力的增長。例如,在 2020 年創紀錄的增長年基礎上,美國增長了近 4%,而印度和中國則實現了兩位數的增長,儘管與較弱的比較國相比。

  • It is particularly pleasing to be winning competitively across all 3 markets, and they do remain a key focus for innovation, for investment in capabilities, for talent development and for capital allocation.

    在所有 3 個市場中贏得競爭尤其令人高興,它們確實仍然是創新、能力投資、人才發展和資本配置的關鍵焦點。

  • Next, leading in channels of the future. E-commerce grew 44% on the back of an exceptionally strong year of growth in 2020. And this growth came from all of the main subchannels of e-commerce. It was driven by growth ahead of the market in the U.S., India and China. In just 5 years, the channel has gone from 2% of Unilever's turnover to 13% in 2021. We've invested significant resources in both expertise and tech capabilities, and we will continue to do so.

    其次,引領未來的渠道。在 2020 年增長異常強勁的一年中,電子商務增長了 44%。這一增長來自電子商務的所有主要子渠道。它是由美國、印度和中國市場領先的增長推動的。在短短 5 年內,渠道已從占聯合利華營業額的 2% 上升到 2021 年的 13%。我們在專業知識和技術能力方面投入了大量資源,我們將繼續這樣做。

  • Our next strategic priority is to build a purpose-led, future-fit organization and growth culture, and key to that is putting in place the right operating model for Unilever. We've known for some time that the matrix structure we have operated under with 3 divisions and 15 regional performance management units was relatively heavy and not as simple, fast or clear as it could be.

    我們的下一個戰略重點是建立以目標為導向、適應未來的組織和增長文化,而其中的關鍵是為聯合利華建立正確的運營模式。一段時間以來,我們就知道,我們所採用的矩陣式結構(由 3 個部門和 15 個區域績效管理單位組成)相對繁重,並沒有想像中的那麼簡單、快速或清晰。

  • We started working on the future organization model all the way back in late 2019 but concluded that making such a significant change in the depths of the COVID crisis would not have been the right thing to do. So we restarted the work again in the second half of last year and announced the conclusion of that work last month. The objective of the change are straightforward: to make Unilever simpler, faster and more agile, more focused and expert in our categories with greater impairment and accountability.

    我們早在 2019 年底就開始研究未來的組織模式,但得出的結論是,在 COVID 危機的深度做出如此重大的改變並不是正確的做法。所以我們在去年下半年又重新開始了這項工作,並在上個月宣布了這項工作的結束。改變的目標很簡單:讓聯合利華更簡單、更快、更敏捷,在我們的類別中更專注、更專業,並具有更大的損害和責任感。

  • We will be organized around five business groups: Beauty & Wellbeing, Personal Care, Home Care, Nutrition and Ice Cream. Each business group will be fully responsible and accountable for their strategy, their growth and their P&L globally.

    我們將圍繞五個業務組進行組織:美容與健康、個人護理、家庭護理、營養和冰淇淋。每個業務集團都將對其全球戰略、增長和損益負全部責任。

  • Each business group will be able to allocate resources to choices which support their growth strategy. For example, the Beauty & Wellness (sic) [Beauty & Wellbeing] business group under Fernando Fernandez will have a very strong focus on growing in channels like beauty stores, drug stores, direct-to-consumer, e-commerce. These channels are less relevant to, for example, our Nutrition business, where out-of-home, classic grocery and omnichannel e-commerce are going to be the key channels to grow the business.

    每個業務組將能夠將資源分配給支持其增長戰略的選擇。例如,費爾南多·費爾南德斯 (Fernando Fernandez) 旗下的 Beauty & Wellness (sic) [Beauty & Wellbeing] 業務集團將非常注重在美容店、藥店、直接面向消費者、電子商務等渠道的增長。例如,這些渠道與我們的營養業務相關性較低,戶外、經典雜貨和全渠道電子商務將成為業務增長的關鍵渠道。

  • And here, you can see clearly how our categories fit within the relevant business groups. Beauty & Wellbeing will combine Hair and Skin Care, Prestige Beauty and our health and well-being businesses. Within that structure, we'll continue to run Prestige and health and well-being as separate global GBUs, a model that has served us well in building each of these businesses to EUR 1 billion of revenues.

    在這裡,您可以清楚地看到我們的類別如何適應相關業務組。 Beauty & Wellbeing 將結合頭髮和皮膚護理、Prestige Beauty 以及我們的健康和福利業務。在該結構中,我們將繼續將 Prestige 和健康與福祉作為獨立的全球 GBU 運營,這一模式在將這些業務中的每一項建設成 10 億歐元的收入方面為我們提供了良好的服務。

  • Personal Care under Fabian Garcia brings together the categories of Skin Cleansing and Deodorants as well as Elida Beauty and Dollar Shave Club.

    Fabian Garcia 旗下的 Personal Care 匯集了皮膚清潔和除臭劑以及 Elida Beauty 和 Dollar Shave Club 的類別。

  • Our Home Care business group will be run by Peter ter Kulve and our Nutrition business group by Hanneke Faber.

    我們的家庭護理業務組將由 Peter ter Kulve 管理,我們的營養業務組將由 Hanneke Faber 管理。

  • Ice Cream becomes its own business group led by Matt Close, who has many years of success leading our Ice Cream business.

    冰淇淋成為自己的業務集團,由 Matt Close 領導,他在領導我們的冰淇淋業務方面取得了多年的成功。

  • We will have a lean corporate center, where our company-wide global strategy and priorities are set and led from, where capital is allocated and where our top talent is managed. And as a foundation to our business, we will have a technology-driven Unilever business operations team, who will run our backbone commercial processes designed once and leveraged everywhere with the highest reliability and the lowest cost.

    我們將擁有一個精益的企業中心,在這裡我們制定和領導我們公司範圍內的全球戰略和優先事項,在哪里分配資金,在哪裡管理我們的頂尖人才。作為我們業務的基礎,我們將擁有一支技術驅動的聯合利華業務運營團隊,他們將運行我們的核心商業流程,該流程設計一次,並以最高的可靠性和最低的成本在任何地方使用。

  • Each business group will consist of 7 or 8 geographic business units led by an empowered general manager. These are groups of countries which have similar consumers, customers and channels, and they will be the engine of our business in our markets. It's worth noting that customer development will remain one integrated function at country level, will continue to show up as One Unilever for our customers.

    每個業務組將由授權總經理領導的 7 或 8 個地理業務單位組成。這些國家集團擁有相似的消費者、客戶和渠道,它們將成為我們市場業務的引擎。值得注意的是,客戶開發仍將是國家層面的一項綜合功能,將繼續作為一個聯合利華出現在我們的客戶面前。

  • This new operating model is a major change in the way we run Unilever, and I firmly believe it's one that will enable us to step up our growth by making us simpler, faster and more accountable. Quarter 2 is a transition period with accountability for delivery and performance incentives vested with our current leadership teams. We'll go live with the new organization in July, and I'm personally looking forward to performance managing the five business group presidents. They've been selected almost exclusively for their record of consistent delivery and performance.

    這種新的運營模式是我們運營聯合利華方式的重大變化,我堅信它將使我們能夠通過讓我們更簡單、更快和更負責任來加速我們的增長。第 2 季度是一個過渡期,我們當前的領導團隊對交付和績效激勵負責。我們將在 7 月與新組織一起上線,我個人期待著管理五位業務集團總裁的績效。他們之所以被選中,幾乎完全是因為他們始終如一的交付和性能記錄。

  • In terms of reporting, you'll continue to see our performance under our current structure for the first half of the year, and we'll report under the new business groups from Q3 onwards.

    在報告方面,您將繼續看到我們在當前結構下上半年的業績,我們將從第三季度開始在新業務組下報告。

  • This is a transformation that has been designed to deliver higher growth. Cost savings were not the primary goal, but the 15% reduction in senior management roles and 5% reduction in junior management roles, together with some nonpeople cost savings, will translate to a saving of EUR 600 million that will be delivered across this year and 2023.

    這是一種旨在實現更高增長的轉型。節省成本不是主要目標,但高級管理職位減少 15% 和初級管理職位減少 5%,加上一些非人員成本節約,將轉化為今年將節省 6 億歐元, 2023 年。

  • This leads me to our fifth strategic priority, which is to continue the move of our portfolio into higher-growth spaces.

    這讓我想到了我們的第五個戰略重點,即繼續將我們的投資組合轉移到更高增長的空間。

  • In parallel with achieving unification of our legal structure, our Board went through an extensive process to review strategic pathways to reposition Unilever's portfolio into higher-growth categories for the longer term. This work concluded that our future strategic direction lies in expanding our presence in health, beauty and hygiene. These categories offer higher rates of sustainable market growth with significant opportunities to drive growth through investment, technology, marketing capability and innovation and by leveraging Unilever's strong global footprint.

    在實現我們的法律結構統一的同時,我們的董事會經歷了一個廣泛的過程來審查戰略路徑,以將聯合利華的投資組合重新定位為長期增長更高的類別。這項工作得出的結論是,我們未來的戰略方向在於擴大我們在健康、美容和衛生領域的影響力。這些類別提供了更高的可持續市場增長率,並通過投資、技術、營銷能力和創新以及利用聯合利華強大的全球影響力來推動增長。

  • We're building a health business within Beauty & Wellbeing in particular through our Vitamins, Minerals and Supplements brands as consumers take a more holistic approach to their beauty and well-being. At the same time, we've disposed of slower-growth food segments such as Spreads and tea.

    我們正在美容與健康領域建立健康業務,特別是通過我們的維生素、礦物質和補充劑品牌,因為消費者對他們的美麗和健康采取更全面的方法。與此同時,我們已經處置了增長較慢的食品領域,例如塗抹醬和茶。

  • Now obviously, we've been asked whether the new business groupings are the next step for a disposal of the Nutrition or Ice Cream businesses. Let me be clear, both Nutrition and Ice Cream are great businesses with strong brands that can thrive within Unilever. Both have benefited from our focus on operational excellence and have performed particularly strongly during the pandemic. And we've already stepped up their growth profile through the divestment of Spreads and the ekaterra tea business.

    現在很明顯,我們被問到新的業務組合是否是處置營養或冰淇淋業務的下一步。讓我明確一點,營養和冰淇淋都是偉大的企業,擁有強大的品牌,可以在聯合利華內蓬勃發展。兩者都受益於我們對卓越運營的關注,並且在大流行期間表現特別強勁。我們已經通過剝離Spreads 和ekaterra 茶葉業務來提升他們的發展前景。

  • The new operating model will give them even more power to drive performance by responding to the consumer and channel dynamics that are unique to each of those business groups. So we see a bright future ahead for both Nutrition and Ice Cream inside Unilever.

    新的運營模式將通過響應每個業務組獨有的消費者和渠道動態,賦予他們更大的推動績效的能力。因此,我們看到聯合利華內部營養和冰淇淋的光明前景。

  • When we responded to disclosure of our interest in GSK Consumer Health, we explained that were we to acquire that business, we would also have divested parts of our portfolio, most likely Foods & Refreshment via an IPO, to both provide funding and to enable the value impact of large separation dis-synergies to be more than offset by synergies available from acquisition.

    當我們回應披露我們對 GSK Consumer Health 的興趣時,我們解釋說,如果我們收購該業務,我們還將剝離部分投資組合,最有可能通過 IPO 出售 Foods & Refreshment,以提供資金並實現巨大的分離不協同效應的價值影響將被收購所產生的協同效應所抵消。

  • I want to emphasize the conditionality of that. We've drawn a line under the GSK Consumer Health proposal, and we do not intend to pursue any other major acquisitions in the foreseeable future. We are 100% committed to continue the step-up in growth of our existing businesses through the 5 new business groups which I've just described. We will continue to accelerate growth through a rigorous focus on organic growth, accelerated by our new operating model and while making incremental portfolio change through bolt-on acquisitions predominantly in the higher-growth spaces of beauty and well-being.

    我想強調它的條件性。我們已經根據 GSK 消費者健康提案劃定了界限,我們不打算在可預見的未來進行任何其他重大收購。我們 100% 致力於通過我剛剛描述的 5 個新業務組繼續加快現有業務的增長。我們將繼續通過嚴格關注有機增長來加速增長,並通過我們的新運營模式加速增長,同時通過主要在美容和福祉等高增長領域的補強收購來進行增量投資組合變化。

  • Now we've been on this path of portfolio evolution for a while now, and we're seeing results. We intend to provide more transparency on the success or otherwise of our M&A activity starting today.

    現在,我們已經在投資組合演變的這條道路上走了一段時間,我們正在看到結果。我們打算從今天開始就我們的併購活動的成功與否提供更多的透明度。

  • 93% of all capital deployed in M&A since 2017 has been in either Prestige Beauty, Functional Nutrition or core Beauty & Personal Care. In contrast, 98% of disposals during that time have been in slower-growing Foods & Refreshment categories. The big 2, obviously, are Spreads and tea.

    自 2017 年以來,用於併購的所有資本中有 93% 用於 Prestige Beauty、Functional Nutrition 或核心美容與個人護理。相比之下,在此期間,98% 的處置都屬於增長較慢的食品和點心類別。顯然,最大的 2 是點差和茶。

  • Overall, our portfolio rotation as a percent of turnover has been about 17% in that time period, which is well ahead of our peer average and in line with the best regarded companies in our sector. I know this is not the perception, but they are the facts.

    總體而言,在此期間,我們的投資組合輪換佔營業額的百分比約為 17%,遠高於同行平均水平,與我們行業中最受推崇的公司一致。我知道這不是看法,但它們是事實。

  • And the portfolio rotation is making a difference to USG. We disposed of businesses, mainly Spreads, which we estimate would have -- would be around a 40 basis point drag on our USG. And the newly acquired businesses contributed 70 basis points to 2021 USG, and that excludes the impact of more recently acquired brands such as Liquid I.V.

    投資組合輪換對 USG 產生了影響。我們出售了業務,主要是我們估計的點差,這將對我們的 USG 造成大約 40 個基點的拖累。新收購的業務為 2021 USG 貢獻了 70 個基點,這不包括最近收購的品牌如 Liquid I.V. 的影響。

  • I want to stress that throughout this rotation, we've been disciplined in our capital allocation, which is reflected in good ROIC, which remains in the mid to high teens at 17.2% in 2021. And we will continue to be disciplined on capital allocation in the future.

    我想強調的是,在整個輪換過程中,我們的資本配置一直很自律,這反映在良好的投資回報率上,到 2021 年仍保持在 17.2% 的中高水平。我們將繼續在資本配置上保持自律將來。

  • Generally, we have a good track record of delivery across our major recent acquisitions, which account for 88% of our deployed capital since 2017. In particular, the investment to build substantial Prestige Beauty and Functional Nutrition businesses has been highly successful.

    總體而言,我們在最近的重大收購中擁有良好的交付記錄,自 2017 年以來占我們部署資本的 88%。特別是,建立大量 Prestige 美容和功能性營養業務的投資非常成功。

  • But let's also be clear that some of our earlier acquisitions have underperformed. We didn't always get it right. Dollar Shave Club did not deliver as expected, and the economics of the DTC model changed. We also find it harder to unlock non-razor sales than planned. Blueair took us too far outside our core strengths and, like Carver Korea, was impacted by significant channel and policy changes post acquisition that we hadn't anticipated such as material improvement in China air quality or the clampdown on the cross-border daigou in North Asia. Nevertheless, Carver, Quala and Sundial will remain highly important and strategic parts of the portfolio.

    但我們也要明確一點,我們早期的一些收購表現不佳。我們並不總是正確的。 Dollar Shave Club 沒有按預期交付,DTC 模型的經濟性發生了變化。我們還發現,非剃須刀銷售比計劃的更難。 Blueair 使我們超出了我們的核心優勢,並且與 Carver Korea 一樣,在收購後受到了我們沒有預料到的重大渠道和政策變化的影響,例如中國空氣質量的實質性改善或北方跨境代購的取締亞洲。儘管如此,Carver、Quala 和 Sundial 仍將是投資組合中非常重要和具有戰略意義的部分。

  • Let me give a little bit more update on Prestige Beauty and Functional Nutrition as this is where nearly all of our M&A capital has been focused since 2019.

    讓我再多介紹一下 Prestige Beauty 和 Functional Nutrition 的最新情況,因為自 2019 年以來,我們幾乎所有的併購資本都集中在這方面。

  • Prestige Beauty, now a EUR 1 billion business, grew over 20% in 2021. And whilst this was against a weak base, growth was still double digit on a 2-year basis.

    Prestige Beauty 的業務現已達到 10 億歐元,在 2021 年增長了 20% 以上。儘管基數較低,但在 2 年的基礎上增長仍為兩位數。

  • Dermalogica, the biggest Prestige Beauty brand in the portfolio, has seen a remarkable step-up in growth since we acquired it in 2015, from around 1% in the 3 years pre-acquisition to a CAGR of 10% over the last 5 years, with the brand now present in over 60 countries around the world. We're just getting started building Prestige in China now that the animal testing regulations permit it.

    Dermalogica 是該產品組合中最大的 Prestige Beauty 品牌,自 2015 年我們收購它以來,它的增長顯著加快,從收購前 3 年的約 1% 到過去 5 年的 10% 的複合年增長率,該品牌現在遍布全球 60 多個國家/地區。既然動物試驗法規允許,我們才剛剛開始在中國建立 Prestige。

  • Functional Nutrition includes the health food/drinks business in South Asia as well as our largely U.S.-based health and well-being VMS business. This business grew 22% in the full year and has some very strong global leadership positions across that portfolio.

    功能性營養包括南亞的健康食品/飲料業務以及我們主要位於美國的健康和福祉 VMS 業務。該業務全年增長 22%,並在該投資組合中擁有非常強大的全球領導地位。

  • As you can see here, together, Functional Nutrition and Prestige are now making a meaningful contribution to group underlying sales growth. For the full year, these 2 businesses contributed over 50 basis points. But you can see the trend has been rising, and in Q4, they contributed 70 basis points. And that is with some of the more recent and fastest-growing acquisitions still not reflected in underlying sales growth.

    正如您在此處看到的,Functional Nutrition 和 Prestige 現在共同為集團的潛在銷售增長做出了有意義的貢獻。全年,這兩項業務貢獻了超過 50 個基點。但你可以看到趨勢一直在上升,在第四季度,他們貢獻了 70 個基點。這是因為一些最近和增長最快的收購仍未反映在基本銷售增長中。

  • So this wraps up the update on how we're doing in total and versus the strategic priorities for Unilever. And the key messages that I'd like to leave with you are as follows.

    因此,這總結了我們總體上的表現以及聯合利華的戰略重點的最新情況。我想給你留下的關鍵信息如下。

  • We've drawn a line under the GSK Consumer Health discussions, and we will not be doing any major acquisitions in the foreseeable future. We have a great portfolio of brands and categories, and we're 100% focused on driving stronger performance from our existing portfolio.

    我們已經在 GSK 消費者健康討論中劃清界限,在可預見的未來我們不會進行任何重大收購。我們擁有豐富的品牌和品類組合,我們 100% 專注於從現有產品組合中提升業績。

  • The measures we've put in place through our strategic choices and focus on operational excellence are starting to show up in our performance. We exited 2021 with momentum and are impatient to accelerate further.

    我們通過戰略選擇實施的措施和專注於卓越運營的措施開始體現在我們的績效中。我們以勢頭結束了 2021 年,並迫不及待地想要進一步加速。

  • We are facing the highest levels of inflation for over a decade, and the business is responding by leading on price.

    我們正面臨著十多年來最高水平的通貨膨脹,而企業正在通過價格領先來應對。

  • Organization change will be an accelerant of performance, and we'll continue the disciplined evolution of our portfolio through organic growth, bolt-ons and selected disposals from all business groups.

    組織變革將促進績效,我們將通過有機增長、補強和所有業務集團的精選處置,繼續我們的投資組合的有序發展。

  • And on that, back to Graeme.

    然後,回到格雷姆。

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • So building on Alan's key messages there, I would first like to reconfirm what our approach to capital allocation has been and will be going forward.

    因此,在艾倫在那裡的關鍵信息的基礎上,我首先想再次確認我們的資本配置方法已經和將要向前發展。

  • We will remain disciplined on capital allocation to drive shareholder value, and we will retain a leverage ratio of around 2x.

    我們將在資本配置方面保持紀律,以推動股東價值,我們將保持 2 倍左右的槓桿率。

  • Operational investment into our business remains our priority.

    對我們業務的運營投資仍然是我們的首要任務。

  • Reshaping our portfolio through bolt-on acquisitions remains part of our strategy. But as Alan said, we will not pursue any transformational deals in the foreseeable future.

    通過補強收購重塑我們的投資組合仍然是我們戰略的一部分。但正如艾倫所說,在可預見的未來,我們不會尋求任何轉型交易。

  • Our dividend yield is high, and we will continue to pay an attractive dividend.

    我們的股息收益率很高,我們將繼續支付有吸引力的股息。

  • Share buybacks remain part of our capital allocation and value-creation thinking. And today, we announced a further share buyback of up to EUR 3 billion over the next 2 years, reflecting the continued strong cash flow and the proceeds from the tea sale expected in the second half of the year. This follows the share buyback of EUR 3 billion which we announced and completed in 2021 and takes us to a total of EUR 6 billion of share buybacks between '21 and 2023 and EUR 17 billion between 2017 and 2023.

    股票回購仍然是我們資本配置和價值創造思維的一部分。今天,我們宣佈在未來 2 年內進一步回購高達 30 億歐元的股份,這反映了持續強勁的現金流和預計在下半年銷售茶葉的收益。這是繼我們於 2021 年宣布並完成 30 億歐元的股票回購之後,我們將在 21 年至 2023 年期間進行總計 60 億歐元的股票回購,在 2017 年至 2023 年期間進行 170 億歐元的股票回購。

  • Now before I get into the outlook, I'd like to touch briefly on a measure that is critical to understanding the inflationary pressures that we are facing next year.

    現在,在我開始展望前景之前,我想簡要談談對了解我們明年面臨的通脹壓力至關重要的一項措施。

  • To date, our practice has been to "market inflation numbers," which are external numbers before any efficiencies and savings that we make. However, in a time of such dramatic cost inflation, we think it is useful and helpful to give you greater transparency and objectivity on the actual absolute levels of cost inflation that the business is facing.

    迄今為止,我們的做法一直是“市場通脹數字”,這是我們所做的任何效率和節省之前的外部數字。然而,在如此劇烈的成本膨脹時期,我們認為在企業面臨的成本膨脹的實際絕對水平上為您提供更大的透明度和客觀性是有用和有幫助的。

  • So today, we're sharing some more detail on what is the core internal inflation metric that we use. And that is called net material inflation, or NMI, as I'm going to refer to it now.

    所以今天,我們將分享更多關於我們使用的核心內部通脹指標的細節。這就是所謂的淨物質通脹,或 NMI,我現在將提到它。

  • Now NMI is the net inflation number expressed in absolute euros of cost that the business will see. It is market inflation less the benefit from hedging covers and global procurement actions, such as bundling purchases of similar ingredients it and includes product logic savings through reformulation, for example, where we substitute one ingredient for another depending on which is more expensive at the time but with no compromise on efficacy of the product, an also includes the work that we do to simplify the total number of product specifications that we have in the company.

    現在,NMI 是企業將看到的以絕對成本歐元表示的淨通脹數字。這是市場通脹減去對沖保險和全球採購行動(例如捆綁購買類似成分)的收益,並包括通過重新制定產品邏輯節省,例如,我們用一種成分代替另一種成分,具體取決於當時哪種成分更昂貴但在不影響產品功效的情況下,還包括我們為簡化公司擁有的產品規格總數所做的工作。

  • FX, foreign exchange, is also a factor, and it can be a headwind or a tailwind, though it generally has been a headwind in the last few years as our emerging market currencies have weakened versus hard currencies like the dollar in which most global commodities are priced.

    外匯,外匯也是一個因素,它可能是逆風或順風,儘管在過去幾年中它通常是逆風,因為我們的新興市場貨幣相對於美元等硬通貨已經走弱,大多數全球商品都在其中定價。

  • Now this chart has a lot of detail on it, but it really is very, very important. We want to give you some history on the levels of NMI, that net material inflation, absolute number that we have seen in the past, how we have priced for that and how quickly we recover the gross margin impact as a result.

    現在這張圖表上有很多細節,但它確實非常非常重要。我們想給你一些關於 NMI 水平的歷史、淨物質通脹、我們過去看到的絕對數字、我們如何為此定價以及我們恢復毛利率影響的速度有多快。

  • And as you can see on the chart, NMI inflation has been at quite low levels for the decade up until 2020. In 2021, we saw a significant step-up. That's EUR 1.3 billion on the chart. And that was a step-up to levels that we've last seen, as you can see, over 10 years ago.

    正如您在圖表中看到的那樣,截至 2020 年的十年間,NMI 通脹一直處於相當低的水平。在 2021 年,我們看到了顯著的上升。這是圖表上的 13 億歐元。正如你所看到的,這是 10 多年前我們最後一次看到的水平的提升。

  • And now looking ahead to 2022, our projections and the work that we do in our global procurement team indicate that we're faced with even more net material inflation at very high levels. We expect market inflation to move from mid-teens in 2021 to over 20% in 2022. And with fewer hedges in place and a more inflated cost base, more of this will flow through to the net material inflation absolute number.

    現在展望 2022 年,我們的預測和我們在全球採購團隊所做的工作表明,我們面臨著更高水平的淨材料通脹。我們預計市場通脹將從 2021 年的 10% 左右上升到 2022 年的 20% 以上。隨著對沖減少和成本基礎更加膨脹,更多的通脹將流向淨物質通脹絕對數字。

  • Now while there are wide ranges to this and a lot can change, we are currently looking at projections of around EUR 3.6 billion of net material inflation on -- for 2022. That's the far right-hand column on this chart. We expect, just to break this down, that first half NMI will be over EUR 2 billion. Now this may moderate in the second half to around EUR 1.5 billion. But there is a wide range of projections, and that reflects market uncertainty about the outlook for commodity, freight and packaging costs.

    現在,雖然這方面的範圍很廣,而且很多事情都可能發生變化,但我們目前正在預測 2022 年的淨物質通脹約為 36 億歐元。這是該圖表最右側的一列。我們預計,僅將其細分,上半年 NMI 將超過 20 億歐元。現在,這可能會在下半年放緩至 15 億歐元左右。但預測範圍很廣,這反映了市場對商品、運費和包裝成本前景的不確定性。

  • And just to put this into context, the unmitigated gross margin impact of EUR 3.6 billion of NMI, if we were to take no pricing or implement other savings initiatives, would be around 700 basis points of gross margin.

    如果我們不採取定價或實施其他節約舉措,那麼 36 億歐元的 NMI 對毛利率的直接影響將是毛利率的 700 個基點左右。

  • This chart also shows you the historic data for price growth, or UPG, as well as our gross margin progress. And as you can see in the chart, we have always stepped up pricing where inflation required us to do so, but often not to the extent so as to fully recover gross margin in any discrete year. Importantly, however, gross margin has then recovered quickly in the subsequent years once cost inflation normalizes and the full effect of pricing lands in the gross margin. The high inflation and brief declines in gross margin called out in this chart in 2008 and 2011 illustrate this very clearly.

    此圖表還向您顯示價格增長或 UPG 的歷史數據,以及我們的毛利率進展。正如您在圖表中看到的那樣,我們總是在通貨膨脹要求我們這樣做的情況下提高定價,但通常不會達到在任何離散年份完全恢復毛利率的程度。然而,重要的是,一旦成本通脹正常化並且定價的全部影響落在毛利率中,隨後幾年的毛利率就會迅速恢復。這張圖表中 2008 年和 2011 年的高通脹和毛利率的短暫下降非常清楚地說明了這一點。

  • We will, of course, continue to take further price increases. These need to be phased in, however, and they lag the full effect of NMI inflation as well as continuing with our savings programs. So we need to do that as well because it's a very important component of managing the inflation.

    當然,我們將繼續採取進一步的價格上漲。然而,這些需要分階段實施,它們滯後於 NMI 通脹的全部影響以及繼續我們的儲蓄計劃。所以我們也需要這樣做,因為它是管理通貨膨脹的一個非常重要的組成部分。

  • This time lag between inflation and pricing, combined with the need to keep the business healthy, means there will be a short-term hit to profitability. And we do not expect to be able to fully offset this extreme net material inflation in 2022 alone. But we are confident, based on the data that I've just presented and set out in this chart, that margin will be restored after 2022 with the majority coming back in 2023.

    通脹和定價之間的時間差,加上保持業務健康的需要,意味著盈利能力將受到短期打擊。我們預計僅在 2022 年就無法完全抵消這種極端的淨物質通脹。但我們有信心,根據我剛剛在這張圖表中展示和列出的數據,該利潤率將在 2022 年之後恢復,其中大部分將在 2023 年恢復。

  • And this takes me to our outlook for the year. We see continued growth momentum as we start the year, building on a strong 2021. We are managing the inflationary shock that 2022 brings, but we'll do the right thing for the health of the business in the long term. And at the same time, we will be implementing a major new operational model for Unilever to become an even simpler and faster business.

    這讓我想到了我們對今年的展望。我們在 2021 年強勁的基礎上,在年初看到持續的增長勢頭。我們正在應對 2022 年帶來的通脹衝擊,但從長遠來看,我們將為業務的健康做正確的事情。同時,我們將為聯合利華實施一種重要的新運營模式,使其成為更簡單、更快速的企業。

  • For 2022, we expect underlying sales growth to be in the range of 4.5% to 6.5% with strong pricing. As mentioned, we expect very high input cost inflation in the first half of over EUR 2 billion, and we currently expect that to moderate to around EUR 1.5 billion for the second half. We will not dial back any investment to deliver a short-term margin, and we plan to maintain competitive levels of investment in our brands, in our marketing, in R&D and our capital expenditure.

    對於 2022 年,我們預計基本銷售額增長將在 4.5% 至 6.5% 之間,且定價強勁。如前所述,我們預計上半年投入成本通脹將非常高,超過 20 億歐元,我們目前預計下半年將放緩至 15 億歐元左右。我們不會為了提供短期利潤而撤回任何投資,我們計劃在我們的品牌、營銷、研發和資本支出方面保持有競爭力的投資水平。

  • The full year underlying operating margin for '22 is expected to be down, therefore, by between 140 basis points and 240 basis points. So that would take our margin to somewhere between 16% and 17% with the first half underlying operating margin impacted more than the second half. We expect the margin decline from '22 to come back in 2023 and 2024 with the bulk in 2023.

    因此,22 年全年基本營業利潤率預計將下降 140 至 240 個基點。因此,這將使我們的利潤率達到 16% 到 17% 之間,上半年基本營業利潤率的影響超過下半年。我們預計 22 年以來的利潤率下降將在 2023 年和 2024 年恢復,其中大部分在 2023 年。

  • Our pricing has been and it will continue to be strong. We have established cost savings programs in place, which will be further enhanced by our operating model change. And we expect inflation to ease from the peak levels that we're seeing.

    我們的定價一直並將繼續保持強勁。我們已經制定了成本節約計劃,這將通過我們的運營模式變化得到進一步加強。我們預計通脹將從我們看到的峰值水平緩和。

  • We also expect the remaining impact from COVID, cost and mix to unwind over this period, although this depends on the world returning to normal.

    我們還預計,COVID、成本和組合的剩餘影響將在此期間緩解,儘管這取決於世界恢復正常。

  • Therefore, we are confident that margin will be restored quickly, but our top priority is accelerating our growth, and we will continue to invest competitively and take actions to deliver stronger growth.

    因此,我們有信心利潤率將迅速恢復,但我們的首要任務是加快增長,我們將繼續競爭性投資並採取行動實現更強勁的增長。

  • And with that, let me hand you back to Richard for the Q&A.

    有了這個,讓我把你交給理查德進行問答。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Thank you, Graeme. (Operator Instructions) So our first question will come from Warren Ackerman at Barclays.

    謝謝你,格雷姆。 (操作員說明)所以我們的第一個問題將來自巴克萊的 Warren Ackerman。

  • Warren Lester Ackerman - Head of European Consumer Equity Research

    Warren Lester Ackerman - Head of European Consumer Equity Research

  • Alan Graeme, it's Warren here at Barclays. A couple from me. First one is just around the top line guidance. You were talking a little bit more about more elasticity in certain pockets. Could you maybe share with us where you are seeing more elasticity? And what should we expect as pricing continues to step up? I'm just trying to understand within the new top line guidance, which is a step-up, do you expect any volume growth in 2022? Or are you expecting price to be very high and sort of volume to be negative? Just trying to understand the whole elasticity points and where you're seeing it by geography and category.

    Alan Graeme,巴克萊的沃倫。我的一對。第一個是頂線指導。您在某些口袋裡更多地談論了更多的彈性。您能否與我們分享您在哪裡看到了更多的彈性?隨著價格繼續上漲,我們應該期待什麼?我只是想了解新的頂線指導,這是一個升級,你預計 2022 年的銷量會增長嗎?或者您是否期望價格非常高而交易量為負?只是試圖了解整個彈性點以及按地理和類別看到它的位置。

  • And then the second one for Alan, I guess. I mean can we just maybe step back and ask about the Glaxo consumer transaction, which obviously is now not happening? But maybe you can walk us through why you thought it was the right deal in the first place. I mean clearly, not happening now, but can you confirm that the target is still to triple sales in Prestige, Nutrition and Functional Nutrition? I'm just trying to sort of understand on the capital allocation. You're still saying bolt-ons but no but transactional deals.

    然後是艾倫的第二個,我猜。我的意思是我們可以退後一步詢問葛蘭素史克消費者交易,這顯然現在沒有發生嗎?但也許你可以告訴我們為什麼你認為這是正確的交易。我的意思很清楚,現在不會發生,但你能確認目標仍然是聲望、營養和功能營養的三倍銷售額嗎?我只是想了解一下資本配置。您仍然在說附加交易,但不是交易交易。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Sure. Graeme, why don't you deal with the elasticities question and I'll get into GSK?

    當然。格雷姆,你為什麼不處理彈性問題,我會進入葛蘭素史克?

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes. So the key message, I think, is we're going to continue to responsibly take price wherever that makes sense. We spoke months ago about the need to carefully manage the triangle of inflation, pricing, elasticity and competitiveness. So we won't push pricing to a level where it compromises the long-term health of the business, but taking price is critical to our ability to carry on investing in our brands. And we're able to do that because our brand equities, our brand power, as we measure it, is very strong, as Alan said, over 80% in very strong brand power positions.

    是的。因此,我認為,關鍵信息是,我們將繼續負責任地採取合理的價格。幾個月前,我們談到需要謹慎管理通脹、定價、彈性和競爭力的三角關係。因此,我們不會將定價推高到損害業務長期健康的水平,但定價對於我們繼續投資品牌的能力至關重要。我們能夠做到這一點是因為我們的品牌資產,我們的品牌力量,正如我們衡量的那樣,非常強大,正如艾倫所說,在非常強大的品牌力量位置上超過 80%。

  • Just to click into a little bit more detail on where we're seeing it. The biggest elasticity we're seeing to date is in Latin America, where we've taken rounds of multiple high levels of price increase. And as you know, that is very much the norm in Latin America, although with these levels of inflation, there has been higher levels of price. And you see that reflected. Volumes have gone negative, for example, in Home Care. That's the right thing to do, we believe. I do want to emphasize we carefully manage it. But as the price leader, we need to balance that out.

    只是為了更詳細地了解我們在哪裡看到它。迄今為止,我們看到的最大彈性是在拉丁美洲,我們已經經歷了多輪高水平的價格上漲。如您所知,這在拉丁美洲非常普遍,儘管通貨膨脹水平如此之高,價格水平也更高。你會看到這一點。例如,在家庭護理方面,銷量已變為負數。這是正確的做法,我們相信。我確實想強調我們小心地管理它。但作為價格領導者,我們需要平衡這一點。

  • So it is simply that there is elasticity. Elasticity is a relative thing. Elasticity is lower where there's high levels of price inflation across the market. So we measure a relative price position.

    所以很簡單,就是有彈性。彈性是一個相對的東西。在整個市場的價格通脹水平較高的地方,彈性較低。所以我們衡量一個相對價格位置。

  • We are the price leader. Competition is following in pricing, and we're measuring that. Pricing is following up on the - it's landing on the consumer shelf, which is important. So retailers are protected.

    我們是價格的領導者。價格競爭緊隨其後,我們正在衡量這一點。定價正在跟進 - 它正在登陸消費者貨架,這很重要。因此,零售商受到保護。

  • And elasticity so far, which we model very carefully, we've done a lot of work on this around the business, we began that -- we do it all the time, but we began it -- to step it up back in the middle of last year when we first saw the inflation headwinds coming, so far, elasticity is tracking very much within the modeled expectations that we have. But it's very dynamic. It's different market by market. That's where we've got the experience. But there is bound to see to be -- some impact on volume for 2022.

    到目前為止,我們非常仔細地建模了彈性,我們圍繞業務做了很多工作,我們開始了 - 我們一直這樣做,但我們開始了 - 加強它在去年年中,當我們第一次看到通脹逆風來臨時,到目前為止,彈性在我們所擁有的模型預期內非常接近。但它非常動態。不同的市場是不同的市場。這就是我們有經驗的地方。但肯定會看到——對 2022 年的交易量產生一些影響。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Graeme.

    謝謝,格雷姆。

  • Warren, for your second question, let me start by underscoring that Unilever's management team, the entire company, are focused on one thing, and that's maximizing the performance from today's portfolio. That's the #1 focus of the vast majority of our employees who never touch M&A or capital allocation, but it's also the #1 priority for Graeme, myself, the rest of the Unilever executive.

    沃倫,對於你的第二個問題,首先讓我強調聯合利華的管理團隊,整個公司,都專注於一件事,那就是最大限度地提高當前產品組合的性能。這是我們絕大多數從不涉及併購或資本配置的員工的第一重點,但這也是格雷姆、我自己和聯合利華其他高管的第一要務。

  • At the same time, it is important to chart the long-term direction of the company. And after months of careful review, the Board concluded that accelerating our shift into consumer health and well-being and beauty as two very attractive adjacencies would position Unilever for faster growth in the decades to come. And that's really the conclusion that lay behind what were intended to be confidential discussions that we're having with GSK and Pfizer.

    同時,規劃公司的長期發展方向也很重要。經過數月的仔細審查,董事會得出結論,加速我們向消費者健康、福祉和美容這兩個非常有吸引力的相鄰領域的轉變,將使聯合利華在未來幾十年實現更快的增長。這就是我們與葛蘭素史克和輝瑞公司進行的秘密討論背後的結論。

  • Now we've been very clear in our statements today where we stand on GSK Consumer Health or other transformational acquisitions. We've listened intently to our shareholders. We understand the feedback. We've drawn a line under the GSK Consumer Health bid, and we don't have any intention of pursuing other major acquisitions.

    現在,我們在今天的聲明中已經非常清楚地表明了我們對 GSK Consumer Health 或其他轉型收購的立場。我們認真聽取了股東的意見。我們理解反饋。我們已經在 GSK Consumer Health 的競標下劃清界限,我們無意進行其他重大收購。

  • However, and this is really the second part of your question, Warren, we are absolutely resolved on moving the portfolio towards these attractive spaces of beauty and health and well-being, but I would say we're more patient on how we get there. Bolt-ons remain part of the strategy. We expect to continue some disposals, pruning some brands and smaller assets across the whole portfolio, by the way. And that bolt-on activity will be very focused in delivering our intentions of scale, Prestige Beauty and health and well-being business. So yes, our commitments to grow those two businesses to meaningful scale are intact.

    然而,這真的是你問題的第二部分,沃倫,我們絕對決心將投資組合轉移到美麗、健康和幸福的這些有吸引力的空間,但我想說我們對如何到達那裡更有耐心.螺栓連接仍然是戰略的一部分。順便說一句,我們預計將繼續進行一些處置,修剪整個投資組合中的一些品牌和較小的資產。而這種附加活動將非常專注於實現我們的規模、Prestige Beauty 以及健康和福祉業務的意圖。所以,是的,我們將這兩項業務發展到有意義的規模的承諾是完整的。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Okay. Thanks, Alan. Let's go straight to our next question, which is from Pinar Ergun from Morgan Stanley.

    好的。謝謝,艾倫。讓我們直接進入下一個問題,該問題來自摩根士丹利的 Pinar Ergun。

  • Pinar Ergun - Equity Analyst

    Pinar Ergun - Equity Analyst

  • Two questions. The first one is on margins. Could you please walk us the building blocks from the '21 to '22 expected margin? Just wanted to confirm that the decline is all driven by commodity prices. And what would prevent the 23% margins from fully recovering? I appreciate the cost pressure is high, but you mentioned that you expect the majority to be restored by '23 despite some cost benefits you will get from the reorganization. So that's the first one, around margins.

    兩個問題。第一個是邊緣。你能告訴我們從 21 年到 22 年的預期邊際的構建塊嗎?只是想確認下跌都是由商品價格驅動的。什麼會阻止 23% 的利潤率完全恢復?我理解成本壓力很大,但您提到,儘管您將從重組中獲得一些成本收益,但您預計大部分將在 23 年前恢復。所以這是第一個,圍繞邊距。

  • The second one is on capital allocation. I think Unilever's net CapEx is down to below 3% of sales this year. Graeme, I recall that back at one of Unilever's investor seminars a few years ago, you were indicating that such levels could be perhaps a little too low for a business like Unilever. What has led to this evolution of capital allocation strategy over the last 5, 6 years, where we have seen a shift from CapEx into pursuing external growth? Would you expect the next few years to follow a similar algorithm?

    第二個是資本配置。我認為聯合利華今年的淨資本支出已降至銷售額的 3% 以下。格雷姆,我記得幾年前在聯合利華的一次投資者研討會上,您曾表示,對於像聯合利華這樣的企業來說,這樣的水平可能有點太低了。在過去的 5、6 年裡,是什麼導致了資本配置策略的演變,我們看到了從資本支出轉向追求外部增長的轉變?你會期望未來幾年遵循類似的算法嗎?

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Pinar. The short answer to your question on margin pressure in 2022 is 100% yes, it is all about commodity cost inflation. Those are very widespread. We're seeing doubling of costs on a variety of agricultural raw materials, petrochemical-derived raw materials, energy. You know the data on freight and distribution. It's up by multiples. Packaging components.

    謝謝,皮納爾。您對 2022 年利潤率壓力問題的簡短回答是 100% 是的,這完全與商品成本通脹有關。這些非常普遍。我們看到各種農業原材料、石化衍生原材料和能源的成本翻了一番。你知道貨運和配送的數據。它是倍數。包裝組件。

  • So as Graeme has shown, we're looking at EUR 3.6 billion of cost increases on those input costs. If we didn't mitigate that with savings and pricing, that would translate directly to 700 basis points of margin impact. So the commodity cost increases are way more than the margin impact that we've described. Of course, we then mitigate with our savings and productivity programs and leading on pricing. And so far, our determination to lead on price is going well. Our brands are in very good shape. Our brand health is allowing us to lead on price.

    因此,正如 Graeme 所展示的,我們預計這些投入成本會增加 36 億歐元的成本。如果我們不通過節省和定價來緩解這種情況,那將直接轉化為 700 個基點的利潤率影響。因此,商品成本的增加遠遠超過我們所描述的利潤率影響。當然,然後我們會通過我們的儲蓄和生產力計劃以及定價領先來減輕壓力。到目前為止,我們在價格上領先的決心進展順利。我們的品牌狀況非常好。我們的品牌健康使我們能夠在價格上領先。

  • Now to believe the reversal in 2023, I don't think we should just look at history and say, fingers crossed, that will happen again. Three things need to happen for our margins to restore in 2023. First, we need a slight reversal on commodity cost inflation and literally a few hundred million euros as against EUR 3.6 billion this year. And that is our best outlook right now. Secondly, we will moderate price increases dramatically, in fact rely mainly on the rollover pricing effect from 2022. And thirdly, deliver the organizational savings, which we categorically will deliver.

    現在要相信 2023 年的逆轉,我認為我們不應該只看歷史然後說,祈禱會再次發生。要在 2023 年恢復我們的利潤率,需要做三件事。首先,我們需要稍微扭轉商品成本通脹,並從今年的 36 億歐元大幅降低幾億歐元。這是我們目前最好的前景。其次,我們將大幅緩和價格上漲,實際上主要依靠從 2022 年開始的展期定價效應。第三,提供組織上的節省,我們肯定會提供。

  • If those 3 conditions come true, then we see a reversal of almost the entire margin loss from 2022 in 2023. So it's a combination of decomposed assumptions about next year but also the historical track record. I hope that answers the question. Graeme?

    如果這三個條件成真,那麼我們將看到從 2022 年到 2023 年幾乎全部利潤損失的逆轉。因此,這是對明年的分解假設以及歷史記錄的組合。我希望這能回答這個問題。格雷姆?

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Let me just anchor in a couple of numbers first. So net CapEx for 2020 was EUR 1.2 billion. That was about 2% -- 2.4% of turnover. It was a step up from 2020, which was GBP 0.9 billion, and both of those years were impacted by the disruption of COVID. I want to be really clear, we've not been able to progress some of our major capital projects at the pace that we were planning because of the disruptions thrown up by the pandemic. You know where our footprint is. You know how disruptive the pandemic has been. You know the restrictions on movement in large parts of Unilever's footprint. So that's the reason for that.

    是的。讓我先錨定幾個數字。因此,2020 年的淨資本支出為 12 億歐元。這大約是營業額的 2% - 2.4%。這比 2020 年的 9 億英鎊有所增加,這兩年都受到了 COVID 中斷的影響。我想非常清楚,由於大流行造成的破壞,我們無法按照我們計劃的速度推進我們的一些主要資本項目。你知道我們的足跡在哪裡。你知道大流行的破壞性有多大。你知道聯合利華大部分地區的行動限制。所以這就是原因。

  • Now back to normalized levels. Actually, just a reminder, if you go back to pre-2015, our levels of CapEx were north of 4%. Then there was a very clear element of catch-up on that. We felt that in the decades prior, we had underinvested in the productive base of the company, and we accelerated that investment over a 4- or 5-year period in order to correct for that. Thereafter, and actually, I mean, I think you're right. I think we did have a conversation of around 3% being about the right levels.

    現在回到標準化水平。實際上,提醒一下,如果你回到 2015 年之前,我們的資本支出水平在 4% 以上。然後有一個非常明確的追趕元素。我們認為,在之前的幾十年裡,我們對公司的生產基礎投資不足,我們在 4 年或 5 年的時間裡加快了投資以糾正這一點。此後,實際上,我的意思是,我認為你是對的。我認為我們確實有大約 3% 的對話是關於正確水平的。

  • We think that around 2.7%, 2.8% is maybe around about the right level. And there's a reason for that now. And that is that so much of our manufacturing has now moved to third-party manufacturing. So that was 10% or 15% 3 or 4 years ago. It's now 20%. And you have to adjust for that and looking at it as a percentage of turnover. If you just do the math on it, it was 20% of your supply coming from third parties where the CapEx is on their balance sheet, not on ours, and you adjust for that. Then, a 2.7% level sort of corrects to about a 3.2% level. So I think we're broadly in the sort of areas that you and I talked about 2 or 3 years ago around that, Pinar.

    我們認為 2.7% 左右,2.8% 可能在合適的水平左右。現在是有原因的。這就是我們的大部分製造現在已經轉移到第三方製造。所以這在 3 或 4 年前是 10% 或 15%。現在是20%。你必須對此進行調整,並將其視為營業額的百分比。如果你只是算一下,你的供應中有 20% 來自第三方,資本支出在他們的資產負債表上,而不是在我們的資產負債表上,你會對此進行調整。然後,2.7% 的水平修正到大約 3.2% 的水平。所以我認為我們大致處於你和我在 2 或 3 年前圍繞這個話題討論過的那種領域,Pinar。

  • And just whilst I've got the mic, just a comment on the amount of restructuring spend that we passed through our supply chain. I think it's important when you're thinking about investment of capital.

    就在我拿起麥克風的時候,就我們通過供應鏈的重組支出數量發表評論。我認為當您考慮資本投資時,這一點很重要。

  • We, as you know, stepped up the level of restructuring from 2017 onwards. As I said in the presentation, we'll continue that until the end of this year. And thereafter, we expect it will drop down to the more normalized level of about 100 basis points of turnover. So roughly speaking, about $500 million of restructuring investment a year versus the broadly GBP 1 billion a year level that we were investing since 2017.

    如您所知,我們從 2017 年起加快了重組水平。正如我在演講中所說,我們將繼續這樣做,直到今年年底。此後,我們預計它將下降到更正常化的水平,約為 100 個基點的營業額。粗略地說,與我們自 2017 年以來每年投資的大致 10 億英鎊的水平相比,每年約有 5 億美元的重組投資。

  • A lot of that has gone on supply chain restructuring. It's been focused in Europe, it's been focused in North America and focused in Latin America. So that's what we've also been doing in terms of spending capital, in improving the performance of the capital base of the company.

    其中很多都發生在供應鏈重組上。它專注於歐洲,專注於北美,專注於拉丁美洲。因此,這也是我們在支出資本方面一直在做的事情,以改善公司資本基礎的表現。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Thanks, Graeme. Our next question comes from John Ennis at Goldman Sachs.

    謝謝,格雷姆。我們的下一個問題來自高盛的約翰·恩尼斯。

  • John Mark Ennis - Equity Analyst

    John Mark Ennis - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about the business reorganization. I wonder if you could give some examples to detail how you think it will improve future performance both in terms of sales growth and market share delivery. And I guess what made you realize that the old structure wasn't quite working for Unilever?

    我想問一下關於業務重組的問題。我想知道您是否可以舉一些例子來詳細說明您認為它將如何改善未來在銷售增長和市場份額交付方面的表現。我想是什麼讓你意識到舊的結構對聯合利華不太適用?

  • And maybe just one more on this topic. How did you decide some of the category separations, I think, most notably between Beauty & Personal Care? Any details around that would be helpful.

    也許只是關於這個話題的一個。我認為,你是如何決定一些類別分離的,尤其是美容和個人護理之間的分離?任何有關這方面的細節都會有所幫助。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Great. Okay, let me deal with that, John.

    偉大的。好的,讓我處理這個,約翰。

  • There is -- there are increasing differences emerging between what we're now calling those business groups that -- in particular in the channel footprint where, if you look at the beauty channel and health and well-being, it's very strongly dominated by the drugstores, health and beauty independents. Online is a particularly important part of that business.

    我們現在所說的那些業務集團之間存在越來越大的差異,特別是在渠道足跡方面,如果你看看美容渠道和健康和福祉,它非常強烈地由藥店、健康和美容獨立人士。在線是該業務的一個特別重要的部分。

  • And I'll use the example you asked about. By contrast, Personal Care, which, in our case, we've populated with deodorants, Skin Cleansing and Oral Care, is a business that's much more dominated by more mass channels. And so the channel footprint and the focus that each of those businesses requires in the different channels is a key difference between them.

    我將使用您詢問的示例。相比之下,個人護理,在我們的案例中,我們已經填充了除臭劑、皮膚清潔和口腔護理,是一個更受大眾渠道主導的業務。因此,每個企業在不同渠道中所需的渠道足跡和重點是它們之間的關鍵區別。

  • Secondly, the competitive landscape is very different. Our Ice Cream team are very focused on a very different set of competitors from our Home Care team, who, in turn, are very focused on a different set of competitors.

    其次,競爭格局大不相同。我們的冰淇淋團隊非常關注與我們的家庭護理團隊截然不同的一組競爭對手,而我們的家庭護理團隊又非常關註一組不同的競爭對手。

  • So whether it's a consumer, a competitor or a channel landscape, there are emerging differences between these different business groups. And that's why we've chosen to focus them in five different areas.

    因此,無論是消費者、競爭對手還是渠道格局,這些不同的業務群體之間都出現了新的差異。這就是為什麼我們選擇將它們集中在五個不同的領域。

  • Secondly, our matrix organization served its purpose. But matrices are not notorious for being the most agile way of organizing a large company. And it does slow down decision-making when you're aligning across different dimensions. And frankly, I think it diffuses accountability.

    其次,我們的矩陣組織達到了它的目的。但矩陣並不是因為是組織大公司最靈活的方式而臭名昭著。當您跨不同維度進行調整時,它確實會減慢決策速度。坦率地說,我認為它分散了問責制。

  • So I am looking forward to having five business leaders who are absolutely proven in their ability to drive short- and long-term performance, who I can work with, Graeme can work with and who we can performance management, who we can -- sorry, we can performance manage on a week-to-week, month-to-month basis.

    所以我期待有五位商業領袖,他們在推動短期和長期績效方面的能力得到了絕對證明,我可以和誰一起工作,格雷姆可以和誰一起工作,我們可以與誰進行績效管理,我們可以——對不起,我們可以按週、按月進行績效管理。

  • And then the final point, I mean, we haven't really teased this out, but today, Unilever's P&L is being optimized across categories at a country level, and we think that's resulting in some suboptimal outcomes. We will now optimize the P&L within a category across countries so that we retain the strategic integrity of the agenda of each of those categories. And that's the fundamental decision-making shift that comes with this model. But the headline is it's just simpler, it's just clearer who's accountable, and we're -- can't wait to get into it, to be honest.

    最後一點,我的意思是,我們還沒有真正解決這個問題,但是今天,聯合利華的損益表正在國家一級的各個類別中進行優化,我們認為這導致了一些次優的結果。我們現在將跨國家/地區優化一個類別內的損益表,以便我們保留每個類別議程的戰略完整性。這就是該模型帶來的基本決策轉變。但標題是它更簡單,更清楚誰負責,老實說,我們迫不及待地想要進入它。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Okay. Thanks for that, Alan. Our next question comes from Celine Pannuti at JPMorgan. Are you there, Celine?

    好的。謝謝你,艾倫。我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Celine Pannuti。席琳,你在嗎?

  • Celine A.H. Pannuti - Head of European Food, Home, Personal Care & Tobacco and Senior Analyst

    Celine A.H. Pannuti - Head of European Food, Home, Personal Care & Tobacco and Senior Analyst

  • My first question is for you, Alan, and it comes to the first sentence you said that you're satisfied with value creation. I'm looking at the presentation, and it seems that nonetheless, the business is progressing in terms of market share, there's enough CapEx, there's product superiority and so on. So what is the problem? Clearly, I think your investor base as well was satisfied with performance, and that's why they would like you to concentrate on organic growth versus M&A. So I just would like to understand where the problem lies in your mind.

    我的第一個問題是問你的,艾倫,關於你說的第一句話,你對價值創造感到滿意。我正在查看演示文稿,但似乎該業務在市場份額方面正在取得進展,有足夠的資本支出,有產品優勢等等。那麼問題是什麼?顯然,我認為您的投資者基礎也對業績感到滿意,這就是為什麼他們希望您專注於有機增長而不是併購。所以我只是想了解你的問題在哪裡。

  • And then the second point, I just want to also -- maybe looking back into 2022 in terms of business risk. The implementation of the new structure, is that a risk for you to land prices or operate in the market? And also, I wanted to know whether inflation in salary was also included in your cost base.

    然後第二點,我也想——也許在商業風險方面回顧 2022 年。新架構的實施,對你來說是地價風險還是市場操作風險?而且,我想知道工資上漲是否也包含在您的成本基礎中。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Okay. Thanks, Celine. I think the gap between how we see the business and how it's currently valued comes back to this concept of 4G growth. We believe that Unilever has to and is capable of delivering growth that is consistent, competitive, profitable and responsible. And that's frankly how we drive the internal organization. We want to see consistent growth, competitive growth, profitable growth and responsible growth.

    好的。謝謝,席琳。我認為我們對業務的看法與其當前估值之間的差距回到了 4G 增長的概念。我們相信,聯合利華必須並且有能力實現持續、有競爭力、盈利和負責任的增長。坦率地說,這就是我們推動內部組織的方式。我們希望看到持續增長、競爭性增長、盈利增長和負責任的增長。

  • And there has been, over the last 5 years, a gap on the consistency and on the competitiveness of the growth. And what you're seeing is a steady step-up in the consistency of our growth delivery.

    在過去 5 年中,增長的一致性和競爭力存在差距。你所看到的是我們增長交付的一致性穩步提升。

  • Of course, last year was a little bit flattered by the prior year comparator. But if you take a 2-year stack basis, our performance last year went from, on a 2-year basis, 2.8% in Q1, 2.3% in Q2, 3.4% in Q3 and 4.2% in Q4. So we are seeing that steady step-up in consistent delivery.

    當然,去年對上一年的比較有點受寵若驚。但是,如果您以 2 年的堆棧為基礎,我們去年的表現在 2 年的基礎上,第一季度為 2.8%,第二季度為 2.3%,第三季度為 3.4%,第四季度為 4.2%。因此,我們看到持續交付的穩步提升。

  • Second is competitiveness of delivery. As you know, 3, 4 years ago, we were donating market share. And we've corrected that. We're now winning market share in more places than we're holding or losing market share, 53% in both of the last 2 years. And I think that's what we need to focus on delivering to the market now, is that steady, reliable operational performance and growth which is consistent, competitive, profitable and responsible.

    二是交付競爭力。如您所知,3、4 年前,我們捐贈了市場份額。我們已經糾正了這一點。我們現在贏得的市場份額超過了我們持有或失去的市場份額,在過去兩年中均為 53%。我認為這就是我們現在需要專注於向市場交付的東西,即穩定、可靠的運營績效和持續、有競爭力、有利可圖和負責任的增長。

  • Perhaps, Graeme, you can handle some of the risks as we do our risk matrix in such a thorough way.

    也許,格雷姆,您可以像我們以如此徹底的方式處理風險矩陣一樣處理一些風險。

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Yes. I think it's a very good question. I mean, obviously, this is a major organizational change for Unilever. I don't want anybody to think of it as a tweak of the model or an incremental improvement. As Alan said, it's quite a fundamental change to how we've managed the company for most of the last couple of decades. Really, it's as significant as when we made the change called One Unilever many, many years ago.

    是的。是的。我認為這是一個非常好的問題。我的意思是,顯然,這對聯合利華來說是一個重大的組織變革。我不希望任何人將其視為模型的調整或增量改進。正如 Alan 所說,在過去幾十年的大部分時間裡,我們管理公司的方式發生了根本性的變化。確實,這與我們多年前進行名為 One Unilever 的變革時一樣重要。

  • And as Alan said, it is fundamental. The fundamental point is that we will be managing and optimizing our performance across a narrower set of categories in multiple geographies as opposed to a more limited geographic market envelope across multiple 13 or 14 categories. And that's a significant change.

    正如艾倫所說,這是根本性的。基本點是,我們將在多個地區的一組更窄的類別中管理和優化我們的績效,而不是跨多個 13 或 14 個類別的更有限的地理市場範圍。這是一個重大的變化。

  • Now how are we going to manage that? The first thing to say is the appointments of the leaders that Alan touched on earlier. That's really, really important.

    現在我們將如何管理它?首先要說的是艾倫之前提到的領導人的任命。這真的,真的很重要。

  • Today, we have around about 90 country general managers in the business, and we have people who lead our divisions who are mainly responsible for global brand strategy, portfolio, M&A decisions, et cetera. And they set the targets for the markets. But after those targets are set, it falls to our Chief Operating Officer to be the gearbox of optimizing that short-term performance in your delivery across our 15 performance management units. That's today's model.

    今天,我們有大約 90 位國家/地區的總經理在業務中,我們有領導我們部門的人,他們主要負責全球品牌戰略、投資組合、併購決策等。他們為市場設定了目標。但在設定了這些目標之後,我們的首席運營官就有責任在我們的 15 個績效管理部門中優化您的交付中的短期績效。這就是今天的模型。

  • Going forwards, however, we will have five, as Alan said, very, very senior and experienced and fully accountable business group presidents. And we will have 38 business units. That's the number of business units that ladders up into the business groups with our most senior and experienced leaders. These are big jobs, the business unit jobs. Going from, say, a country general manager position to a business unit general manager is a significant increase in responsibility.

    然而,展望未來,正如艾倫所說,我們將有五位非常、非常資深、經驗豐富且完全負責任的業務集團總裁。我們將擁有 38 個業務部門。這是與我們最資深和最有經驗的領導者一起進入業務組的業務部門的數量。這些都是大工作,業務部門的工作。例如,從國家總經理職位到業務部門總經理職位的職責顯著增加。

  • And the ability to perform is managed because we're bringing both strategy and capability to deliver performance absolutely into the same place with no split across the matrix. Now that will be very liberating. That's the basis for our belief that this will continue to be a further step-up in the performance that the company can offer.

    執行能力得到管理,因為我們將戰略和能力都帶到了同一個地方,完全沒有跨矩陣分裂。現在這將是非常自由的。這是我們相信這將繼續進一步提升公司可以提供的業績的基礎。

  • But it is a big change. And to manage that, we have asked Nitin to lead our transformation office. So Nitin will be the Chief Transformation Officer. Of course, for the first half of the year, he's the Chief Operating Officer.

    但這是一個很大的變化。為了解決這個問題,我們請 Nitin 領導我們的轉型辦公室。因此,Nitin 將擔任首席轉型官。當然,今年上半年,他是首席運營官。

  • And rest assured, the entire leadership of the company is focused, first and foremost, on making sure that we don't drop balls during the first half of the year before we move to the new organization. And people will be targeted for that and held accountable for that. And as I said, it's helpful that Nitin retains both hats.

    請放心,公司的整個領導層首先關注的是確保我們在搬到新組織之前的上半年不會掉球。人們將成為目標並為此負責。正如我所說,Nitin 保留兩頂帽子很有幫助。

  • Nitin is also, in addition to the transformation, managing the transformation office, the Chief People Officer. And I think that's a simplification as well because so much of this is around leadership change and people change and accountability. So that will help us.

    除了轉型之外,Nitin 還負責管理轉型辦公室,即首席人事官。我認為這也是一種簡化,因為其中很大一部分是圍繞領導層變更、人員變更和問責制。所以這將對我們有所幫助。

  • And then the final thing is we have staffed, and we've done it already, a very significant transformation office to take us through the change. Some of the most senior and experienced leaders in Unilever are coming out of their roles and will be dedicated to making sure that we can execute this change in our operating model successfully.

    最後一件事是我們已經配備了人員,而且我們已經做到了,這是一個非常重要的轉型辦公室,可以帶領我們完成變革。聯合利華的一些最資深和最有經驗的領導者即將卸任,他們將致力於確保我們能夠成功地在我們的運營模式中實施這一變革。

  • For example, Rohit Jawa, who many of you will know he has very successfully led our business in North Asia for the last few years, Rohit is coming in to do that. On the finance side. The CFO of our big and successful business in Brazil will be coming in to work alongside Rohit in managing that. So they're just a couple of examples of how we're going to manage the risk.

    例如,Rohit Jawa,你們中的許多人都知道,他在過去幾年中非常成功地領導了我們在北亞的業務,Rohit 就是來做這件事的。在財務方面。我們在巴西的大型成功企業的首席財務官將與 Rohit 一起管理該業務。所以它們只是我們將如何管理風險的幾個例子。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Thanks, Graeme. Thanks, Celine. Our next question comes from James Edward Jones at RBC.

    謝謝,格雷姆。謝謝,席琳。我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 James Edward Jones。

  • James Edwardes Jones - MD & Analyst

    James Edwardes Jones - MD & Analyst

  • A couple of questions, please. Do you see the need for cultural reboot to coincide with the reorganization you've announced?

    有幾個問題,請。您是否認為需要重新啟動文化以配合您宣布的重組?

  • And secondly, your return on capital has fallen over the last 5 years from, I think, a bit over 19% to 17.2%. You've emphasized your acquisitions have performed well. So does that mean the preexisting business is seeing its capital efficiency deteriorating?

    其次,在過去 5 年中,您的資本回報率從我認為的 19% 多一點下降到 17.2%。您已經強調您的收購表現良好。那麼這是否意味著現有業務的資本效率正在惡化?

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • James, culture is an ephemeral issue to deal with. It's hard to put your arms around it or define it. We've done a lot of work over the years to define how we want Unilever's culture to show up. And it is as a business that is human, purposeful and accountable. And if I'm honest, I think we're long on the human. We're definitely long and the purposeful. And the design of this organization is single mindedly to step up the sense of accountability in the organization.

    詹姆斯,文化是一個需要處理的短暫問題。很難把你的手臂放在它周圍或定義它。多年來,我們做了很多工作來定義我們希望聯合利華的文化如何展現。它是一個人性化的、有目的的和負責任的企業。老實說,我認為我們對人類很感興趣。我們絕對是長而有目的的。而這個組織的設計,一心一意地加強了組織的責任感。

  • Our people feel very accountable today for their responsibilities, but our matrix tends to diffuse that responsibility. Our big business unit leaders and the -- sorry, business unit general managers and the business group leaders, it will be absolutely unambiguous who is accountable for what. And so if there is going to be a cultural shift, it will be to dial up that sense of accountability. And we literally, in our materials, define Unilever's culture as human, purposeful and accountable, and I think I've been crystal clear which of those three dimensions this organization is designed to amplify.

    今天,我們的員工對自己的責任感到非常負責,但我們的矩陣傾向於分散這種責任。我們的大業務部門負責人以及——對不起,業務部門總經理和業務部門負責人,誰對什麼負責是絕對明確的。因此,如果要進行文化轉變,那就是增強這種責任感。我們從字面上看,在我們的材料中,將聯合利華的文化定義為人性化、有目的性和負責任的,我想我已經非常清楚這個組織旨在放大這三個維度中的哪一個。

  • Graeme, ROIC?

    格雷姆,ROIC?

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes. So your numbers are bang on. Throughout this period of significant change that we've had around the bolt-on acquisition strategy and the divestment of EUR 5 billion of turnover from Foods, the sort of 90% that Alan took you through from 2017 that's been focused in building Prestige Beauty, our health and wellbeing business and in Personal Care, 90% in that very focused and almost 100% being in the slower-growth areas of our Foods & Refreshment portfolio, that caused a reduction in ROIC from 19% to 17%. I should say that, that still means that the ROIC in Unilever is high and attractive, but we've been very careful about managing that.

    是的。所以你的數字很受歡迎。在這段重大變化期間,我們圍繞補強收購戰略和從 Foods 撤資 50 億歐元營業額,艾倫從 2017 年開始帶您完成 90% 的工作,專注於打造 Prestige Beauty,我們的健康和福祉業務以及個人護理業務,其中 90% 集中在我們的食品和點心產品組合中增長較慢的領域,這導致投資回報率從 19% 下降到 17%。我應該說,這仍然意味著聯合利華的投資回報率高且有吸引力,但我們在管理上非常謹慎。

  • Now to your specific question, yes, our acquisitions have broadly performed well, as Alan said. Not all of them, DSC, Blueair, Carver, challenges within those, and Alan has been very clear on those today. But the reality is that when you do acquisitions, because you're bringing all of the goodwill and intangibles in, acquisitions tend to be dilutive to your ROIC. The way that we've managed that is by the underlying operational performance of the business being so good.

    現在針對您的具體問題,是的,正如艾倫所說,我們的收購總體上表現良好。並非所有這些,DSC、Blueair、Carver,都存在挑戰,而 Alan 今天對這些挑戰非常清楚。但現實情況是,當您進行收購時,因為您將所有的商譽和無形資產都帶入,收購往往會稀釋您的投資回報率。我們管理的方式是業務的基本運營績效非常好。

  • One of the earlier charts that Alan put up showed the progress that we've made on our margin, and then we're going to go back on that in 2022 and recover in '23 and '24. But that progress in margin, the diligence of investing, finding the savings, restructuring our business in a healthy way and creating the margin, that operational performance of top line, which has been disappointing at 3% -- don't get us wrong, but 3%, combined with the progress that we've made in operating performance of the business, has been the thing that's mitigated the impact.

    Alan 提供的較早圖表之一顯示了我們在利潤上取得的進展,然後我們將在 2022 年回到這一點,並在 23 年和 24 年恢復。但是利潤率方面的進步,投資的勤奮,找到儲蓄,以健康的方式重組我們的業務並創造利潤,頂線的運營業績令人失望,只有 3%——不要誤會我們的意思,但是 3%,再加上我們在業務運營績效方面取得的進步,已經減輕了影響。

  • So we've been able to rotate the portfolio significantly, find ourselves in a situation where the capital that we've deployed and that we have harvested through the divestments we've made have added 70 basis points and an estimated 40 basis points, respectively, to the 4.5% growth that we're reporting now, and we showed you in the charts how that's built up.

    因此,我們已經能夠顯著輪換投資組合,發現自己處於這樣一種情況,即我們部署的資本以及我們通過撤資獲得的資本分別增加了 70 個基點和估計 40 個基點,到我們現在報告的 4.5% 的增長,我們在圖表中向您展示了它是如何建立的。

  • That judicious repositioning of the portfolio, aligned with strategy, is securing faster growth for us. And we've been able to mitigate the impact of that on the ROIC through the operating performance of the company. It does not mean, just to answer your question directly, that the pre-existing businesses are deteriorating ROIC.

    明智地重新定位投資組合,與戰略保持一致,為我們確保了更快的增長。我們已經能夠通過公司的經營業績減輕這對 ROIC 的影響。這並不意味著,只是直接回答您的問題,現有業務正在惡化 ROIC。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Okay. Thanks, Graeme. Next question, from David Hayes at SocGen. Go ahead, David.

    好的。謝謝,格雷姆。下一個問題,來自 SocGen 的 David Hayes。去吧,大衛。

  • David Hayes - Equity Analyst

    David Hayes - Equity Analyst

  • Sorry if this has been covered, but I had a bit of a connection issue. But I'll go with it anyway and you can tell me whether I've missed this exciting bit. So just firstly on strategy and then one on the outlook.

    抱歉,如果這已涵蓋,但我遇到了一些連接問題。但無論如何我都會接受它,你可以告訴我我是否錯過了這個令人興奮的部分。因此,首先是戰略,然後是前景。

  • So on the strategy side, just coming back to the sort of GSK situation, now clearly the Board and the ExCo, which are all well experienced in CPG management, have got the best insights to trends and so forth, all thought that got that deal, that change, and dropping Food as part of that, which you talk about, was the right way to go, but the shareholders clearly didn't give you that support.

    所以在戰略方面,回到葛蘭素史克的情況,現在很明顯,在 CPG 管理方面經驗豐富的董事會和執行委員會都對趨勢等有了最好的洞察力,都認為達成了交易,你所說的那種改變和放棄 Food 作為其中的一部分,是正確的做法,但股東們顯然沒有給你那種支持。

  • So I guess the question is, are your hands tied and that there's a frustration there because that actually is option A, but you just can't do it because you didn't get the sponsorship? Or have you genuinely changed your minds about what the best direction is for Unilever? And what's changed in that? Or I guess is GSK a unique proposition that's the only option? And then what was unique about it, if that's the case?

    所以我想問題是,你的手被束縛了嗎?因為那實際上是選項A,所以你會感到沮喪,但你不能這樣做,因為你沒有得到贊助?還是您真的改變了對聯合利華最佳方向的看法?那有什麼變化?或者我猜葛蘭素史克是唯一的選擇嗎?那麼它有什麼獨特之處,如果是這樣的話?

  • And the second question, on the '22 outlook. I just wondered whether you can give details on a couple of bits. So was it -- BMI, I think, comes in at 13.3% in 2021. It was 14%-plus going back to sort of '18, '19. Is that number going to go up as part of the margin reset as you invest back in the business?

    第二個問題,關於'22 展望。我只是想知道您是否可以提供一些細節。就是這樣——我認為 BMI 在 2021 年達到 13.3%。回到 18 年和 19 年,它是 14% 以上。當您重新投資業務時,該數字是否會作為保證金重置的一部分而上升?

  • And I guess related to that, the restoration word, are we talking sort of 19% to 20% margins again by '24? Is that the use of the word or that you would cover the margin up over the '23 and '24, but it may not get back to sort of 19%-plus by that time?

    我想與此相關,恢復詞,我們是否會在 24 年再次談論 19% 到 20% 的利潤率?是這個詞的使用還是你會在 '23 和 '24 上彌補利潤,但到那時它可能不會恢復到 19% 以上?

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, David. Look, the deep reflections by the Board and the ExCo on the strategic direction of the business have identified where we think the most attractive growth prospects are. And you can see evidence of that in our behavior over the last 3 years.

    謝謝,大衛。看,董事會和執行委員會對業務戰略方向的深入思考已經確定了我們認為最具吸引力的增長前景。您可以從我們過去 3 年的行為中看到這一點的證據。

  • The bulk of our capital deployment and M&A has been into luxury beauty and health and well-being through the VMS business. And we think those trends are going to continue. I won't go into all the reasons now, but you can imagine the world becoming a little bit more affluent is associated with an increased concern on health and well-being. It's a secular trend. And we are absolutely resolved to move our portfolio in that direction.

    我們的大部分資本部署和併購都通過 VMS 業務投入到奢華美容、健康和福祉領域。我們認為這些趨勢將繼續下去。我現在不會詳細說明所有原因,但你可以想像,世界變得更加富裕與對健康和福祉的日益關注有關。這是一個長期的趨勢。我們絕對決心將我們的投資組合朝著這個方向發展。

  • I feel absolutely no sense of our hands being tied because there are plenty of opportunities for us to pursue in the business that we have right now and through continuing to make bolt-on acquisitions to take luxury beauty and to take health and well being up to -- from EUR 1 billion to EUR 3 billion-plus. That's an exciting agenda for me. It's an exciting agenda for the company.

    我完全沒有感覺到我們的雙手被束縛了,因為我們有很多機會在我們現在擁有的業務中追求,並通過繼續進行附加收購來獲取奢華的美麗,並將健康和福祉提升到——從 10 億歐元到超過 30 億歐元。這對我來說是一個令人興奮的議程。這對公司來說是一個令人興奮的議程。

  • And as far as the shareholder reaction to GSK is concerned, you can imagine we've spent extensive time talking to shareholders in the last 3 weeks. And what we hear consistently is support for this direction of travel but just feedback that the proposed or the transaction that was under discussion was too big and at the wrong time. So we park it and we move on, but it certainly doesn't mean we're out of options or out of ideas. In fact, we're excited about the agenda that lies ahead.

    就股東對葛蘭素史克的反應而言,您可以想像我們在過去 3 週內花費了大量時間與股東交談。我們一直聽到的是對這一發展方向的支持,但只是反饋建議或正在討論的交易太大而且時間錯誤。因此,我們將其停放並繼續前進,但這當然並不意味著我們沒有選擇或沒有想法。事實上,我們對即將到來的議程感到興奮。

  • Graeme, do you want to talk a little bit about 2022 outlook?

    Graeme,你想談談 2022 年的展望嗎?

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Let me take the outlook first and then come back to the BMI question.

    是的。讓我先看一下前景,然後再回到 BMI 問題。

  • First thing to say on the outlook is the 3 levers that give us the confidence that we will restore the margin are in 3 main areas. First of all, it does not take much in terms of a return to normalization of commodity prices and fundamental input prices to make a big difference on that number. That's what you see happens historically in the sort of 10 years to 15 years of data that we showed in the presentation, David.

    關於前景首先要說的是 3 個讓我們有信心恢復利潤率的槓桿在 3 個主要領域。首先,商品價格和基本投入品價格恢復正常化並不需要太多時間,就可以對這個數字產生很大影響。這就是我們在演示文稿中展示的那種 10 年到 15 年的數據歷史上發生的情況,大衛。

  • Second thing that requires to happen is we need to keep going with pricing and do that diligently and sensibly. But it does take time for the benefit of pricing to flow into the gross margin.

    需要發生的第二件事是,我們需要繼續定價,並努力而明智地做到這一點。但定價的好處要流入毛利率確實需要時間。

  • And the third thing is we need to continue to step up and deliver the savings. We have an extra lever with that, as Alan said earlier, from the operating model change.

    第三件事是我們需要繼續加緊努力並節省開支。正如艾倫之前所說,我們有一個額外的槓桿,來自運營模式的改變。

  • The purpose of the operating model is to change Unilever's performance. It's a growth-driven, competitive-driven change, but there are benefits in reducing the matrix to the tune of about EUR 600 million of annual savings. About EUR 100 million of that is already counted from ongoing projects that would be in our EUR 2 billion of normal savings delivery, and we delivered another $2 billion in 2021. But there is incremental savings there to allow us to navigate through that period.

    運營模式的目的是改變聯合利華的業績。這是一種增長驅動、競爭驅動的變革,但將矩陣減少到每年可節省約 6 億歐元是有好處的。其中大約 1 億歐元已經計入正在進行的項目中,這些項目將計入我們 20 億歐元的正常儲蓄交付中,我們在 2021 年又交付了 20 億美元。但是那裡有增量儲蓄,可以讓我們度過那個時期。

  • So a combination of normalization of the commodity landscape and -- as we said, that's a little bit uncertain, too, as we've given you everything that we know at the moment. And we have good experience in it. We've put those numbers out there for you to see them. A moderation of that, a continuation of pricing flow-through and savings are what we will use in order to get there.

    因此,商品格局的正常化以及 - 正如我們所說的那樣,這也有點不確定,因為我們已經向您提供了我們目前所知道的一切。我們在這方面有很好的經驗。我們已將這些數字放在那裡供您查看。適度,繼續定價流通和節省是我們將用來實現目標的方法。

  • We're not going to set a margin target, but we have confidence that, that margin will be restored quickly and will drive shareholder value through a combination of that stepped-up growth that we'll hold on to and margin improvement but with growth being the priority.

    我們不會設定利潤率目標,但我們有信心,該利潤率將迅速恢復,並將通過我們將堅持的加速增長和利潤率提高但隨著增長的結合來推動股東價值作為優先事項。

  • Which takes me on to levels of investment in the business and BMI in particular. I mean as a percentage of turnover, you're right, we've gone from about 14% to 13%. But in absolute levels and absolute currencies, we've invested broadly around EUR 7 billion for each of the last 3 years. And we think that's the right level to invest. We know we're competitive with that. We know we maintain competitive BMI in '21 and we will do in 2022.

    這讓我了解了對業務的投資水平,尤其是 BMI。我的意思是作為營業額的百分比,你是對的,我們已經從大約 14% 上升到 13%。但就絕對水平和絕對貨幣而言,我們在過去 3 年中每年的投資大致約為 70 億歐元。我們認為這是正確的投資水平。我們知道我們在這方面具有競爭力。我們知道我們在 21 年保持有競爭力的 BMI,我們將在 2022 年做到這一點。

  • We also invest strongly in markets, thanks to our overheads. And we've been quite differentiated and the business has been quite thoughtful in how we invest our BMI with -- '21 is a good example of that.

    由於我們的管理費用,我們還大力投資於市場。而且我們已經非常差異化,並且業務在我們如何投資我們的 BMI 方面非常周到——'21 就是一個很好的例子。

  • In the context of high growth, we spent more BMI, more brand investment in North America that includes our VMS businesses. We spent more in China. We spent more in our Foods business in South Asia, and we spent more in Prestige Beauty. And lower-growth areas, we spent a bit less in Europe and we spent less in Southeast Asia because of the ongoing COVID restrictions there, particularly in Q3 in SEA. And then there's another bucket which is sort of Latin America and Arabia, where we chose to spend a bit less because of the extent of the pricing that's going through. And what happens when there's a lot of pricing is that the market generally starts to deflate from a marketing investment perspective, and we're anticipating that.

    在高增長的背景下,我們在北美投入了更多的BMI,更多的品牌投資,包括我們的VMS業務。我們在中國的花費更多。我們在南亞的食品業務上花費了更多,我們在 Prestige Beauty 上的花費也更多。在增長較低的地區,我們在歐洲的支出較少,在東南亞的支出較少,因為那裡持續存在 COVID 限制,特別是在東南亞的第三季度。然後還有另一個桶,有點像拉丁美洲和阿拉伯,我們選擇少花一點,因為正在經歷的定價範圍。當有很多定價時會發生什麼,從營銷投資的角度來看,市場通常開始通貨緊縮,我們正在預料之中。

  • So that -- if you click a couple of levels down, we continue to invest competitively. So some are still above 100%. We've been investing at consistent levels. But going forwards, we've been very clear and hence the outlook on margin.

    因此,如果您向下單擊幾個級別,我們將繼續進行有競爭力的投資。所以有些仍然高於100%。我們一直在一致的水平上進行投資。但展望未來,我們已經非常清楚,因此對利潤率的前景也很清楚。

  • Our priority is to invest competitively in the business, buying the brands and marketing, R&D, CapEx and manage the business for the longer term. And that's why you see the outlook that we're giving you. We think that will recover relatively quickly, but our focus will be in investing in the business.

    我們的首要任務是對業務進行有競爭力的投資,購買品牌和營銷、研發、資本支出並長期管理業務。這就是為什麼你會看到我們給你的前景。我們認為這將相對較快地恢復,但我們的重點將放在對業務的投資上。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Okay. Thanks, Graeme. Let's go straight to our next questioner, which is James Targett at Berenberg. Go ahead, James.

    好的。謝謝,格雷姆。讓我們直奔下一個提問者,即貝倫貝格的詹姆斯·塔吉特。繼續,詹姆斯。

  • James Targett - Analyst

    James Targett - Analyst

  • Two questions from me. Firstly, just to come back on the organic growth guidance for '22. I mean just looking at the slide with the historical level of pricing you would need to cover the EUR 3.6 billion NMI, I mean, it looks like a high single digit. So that does imply you're expecting a couple of hundred basis points decline in volumes in FY '22. Or is there a different way to look at that?

    我的兩個問題。首先,回到 22 年的有機增長指導。我的意思是只看幻燈片的歷史定價水平,你需要覆蓋 36 億歐元的 NMI,我的意思是,它看起來像是一個高個位數。因此,這確實意味著您預計 22 財年的交易量將下降幾百個基點。還是有不同的看法?

  • And then secondly, just on the portfolio, just sort of sorry to come back to this. But Alan, are you confident in the current portfolio, you can deliver organic growth in the upper half of the 3% to 5% midterm range once inflation levels normalize? Or does that still require the modest bolt-ons and disposals you mentioned?

    其次,就投資組合而言,很抱歉回到這一點。但是艾倫,你對當前的投資組合有信心嗎,一旦通脹水平正常化,你可以在 3% 到 5% 的中期範圍的上半部分實現有機增長嗎?或者這仍然需要你提到的適度的附加和處置嗎?

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes, thanks. Let me take both those questions, James, and I'll try and be brief in the answer. I know there's lots of other people online.

    對了謝謝。讓我回答這兩個問題,詹姆斯,我會盡量簡短地回答。我知道網上還有很多人。

  • The organic growth guidance is very clear that it will be pricing led. And it is possible that will result in negative volumes. However, we're tracking elasticities very carefully. I think Graeme gave a good rundown there. But it's critical that we protect the P&L and that we protect our ability to invest in our businesses and don't get into a spiral of collapsing margins.

    有機增長指導非常明確,它將以定價為主導。這可能會導致負交易量。但是,我們非常仔細地跟踪彈性。我認為格雷姆在那裡給出了很好的總結。但至關重要的是,我們要保護損益表,保護我們投資業務的能力,不要陷入利潤率下滑的漩渦。

  • Remember, the unmitigated margin -- gross margin impact of these price -- these cost increases is 700 basis points, and we are going to take leadership positions on pricing to offset that. And that will have some impact on volume, yes.

    請記住,未經調整的利潤率——這些價格對毛利率的影響——這些成本增加了 700 個基點,我們將在定價方面佔據領先地位以抵消這一點。這將對音量產生一些影響,是的。

  • And a straight answer to a straight question. The portfolio we have today in normal pricing environments, where we are winning competitively and growing market share, can deliver in the top half of our range. And the reason for that is the actions that we've taken on disposing off low-growth businesses and building super attractive businesses in Prestige, beauty and health and wellbeing, that disposal and acquisition programs added 100 basis points of growth in the last year. And so the short answer is, yes, we can because of the actions that we've taken.

    並且直接回答一個直接的問題。我們今天在正常定價環境中擁有的產品組合,我們在競爭中贏得競爭並不斷增長的市場份額,可以在我們範圍的上半部分提供。其原因是我們在處置低增長業務並在 Prestige、美容、健康和福祉方面建立超級有吸引力的業務方面採取的行動,處置和收購計劃在去年增加了 100 個基點的增長。所以簡短的回答是,是的,我們可以,因為我們已經採取了行動。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Thanks, Alan. Our next question comes from Bruno Monteyne at Bernstein.

    謝謝,艾倫。我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Bruno Monteyne。

  • Bruno Monteyne - Senior Analyst

    Bruno Monteyne - Senior Analyst

  • A few for me. So looking at your euro pricing data, it looks like pricing hasn't really kicked off in Europe at all, and we see the same in all the market data out there. Is anything changing in the European grocery landscape, sort of market structure, e-commerce, more discounters, that makes it a lot harder in Europe these days to pass pricing? And if so, what does it really bode for the next few years? Will you be -- what do you expect to change given how hard Europe seems to be pass through pricing? That's the first one.

    幾個給我。所以看看你們的歐元定價數據,歐洲的定價似乎還沒有真正開始,我們在所有市場數據中都看到了同樣的情況。歐洲雜貨市場、市場結構、電子商務、更多折扣店是否發生了變化,這使得歐洲如今通過定價變得更加困難?如果是這樣,未來幾年的真正預兆是什麼?考慮到歐洲似乎很難通過定價,你會 - 你期望改變什麼?那是第一個。

  • And then the second one, clearly the step-up in growth, 4.5% to 6.5%, is sort of well above what we expected, largely pricing driven. Trying to better understand it because -- are you going to use more BMI to be part of that kind of brand equity to accelerate growth? Or is it actually a longer-term risk that if you do increase prices by that much and already have negative volumes in 2022, could there be ongoing sort of brand problems in the year after because you basically increased prices by too much versus private label and other brands? Is there a longer-term risk to that very high price-driven growth in 2022?

    然後是第二個,顯然是增長,從 4.5% 到 6.5%,遠高於我們的預期,主要是價格驅動。試圖更好地理解它,因為——你會使用更多的 BMI 來成為這種品牌資產的一部分來加速增長嗎?或者,如果您確實將價格提高了這麼多並且在 2022 年已經出現負銷量,那麼實際上是否存在長期風險,那麼在之後的一年中是否會出現持續的品牌問題,因為您基本上與自有品牌相比價格提高了太多,並且其他品牌? 2022 年價格驅動的高增長是否存在長期風險?

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Bruno, nice to speak to you. The -- it's certainly true that pricing is slower to land in Europe. There's a couple of reasons for that.

    布魯諾,很高興和你說話。 - 當然,定價在歐洲登陸的速度較慢。有幾個原因。

  • In the emerging markets, remember, we are used to being extremely agile in pricing because we're dealing with two effects, both cost increases and FX changes. So it's more part of the way of life in places like Latin America, Southeast Asia to be agile and fast on landing price increases.

    請記住,在新興市場,我們習慣於在定價方面非常靈活,因為我們要處理兩種影響,即成本增加和外匯變化。因此,在拉美、東南亞等地,敏捷和快速的落地價格上漲更多地成為生活方式的一部分。

  • In Europe, that's much less common. And we're actually in the middle of the cycle of retailer negotiations at the moment, and the exact pricing that we land in Europe will be a consequence of the outcome of those negotiations. Although I think there's an awakening reality in European retail that it is going to be necessary for prices to go up.

    在歐洲,這種情況要少得多。我們目前實際上正處於零售商談判週期的中間,我們在歐洲登陸的確切定價將是這些談判結果的結果。儘管我認為歐洲零售業有一個覺醒的現實,即價格上漲是必要的。

  • But that's the reason for the time lag. It's the structure of the market and the double effect of cost and price and FX that we see in emerging markets.

    但這就是時間滯後的原因。這是我們在新興市場看到的市場結構以及成本、價格和外彙的雙重影響。

  • Let me talk about our growth step-up and whether that's sustainable. I'm going to give you a few data points on just what good shape our biggest and best brands are in.

    讓我談談我們的增長步伐以及這是否可持續。我將為您提供一些關於我們最大和最好的品牌的良好狀態的數據點。

  • So the EUR 1 billion brands that make up half of Unilever's turnover are growing 6.4% last year and are, by any measure, in good health. The brand equity has strengthened. Brand power, which is a slightly different measure that we measure, has strengthened. Our share of spend to share of market is above 100. There were many years where that was not the case.

    因此,佔聯合利華一半營業額的 10 億歐元品牌去年增長了 6.4%,而且無論以何種標準衡量,都表現良好。品牌資產得到加強。品牌力是我們衡量的一個略有不同的衡量標準,它已經加強。我們的支出佔市場份額超過 100。很多年情況並非如此。

  • And we will not back off on competitive investment in our brands, a, for the long term; and b, so that they can support the type of pricing that we're talking about. The, I think, unwise thing we could have done would have been to take a bigger dip on things like BMI, R&D, operational CapEx in the current cost climate. But we're not going to do that. We're going to spend at the levels that we think are necessary to maintain competitiveness.

    從長遠來看,我們不會放棄對我們品牌的競爭性投資; b,以便他們可以支持我們正在談論的定價類型。我認為,在當前的成本環境下,我們本可以做的不明智的事情是在 BMI、研發、運營資本支出等方面大幅下降。但我們不會那樣做。我們將按照我們認為保持競爭力所必需的水平進行支出。

  • Graeme also made the point that in times of very high price inflation, many emerging markets around the world see a reduction in overall spend in our categories. So remaining competitive may cost less in markets that make up the majority of Unilever's turnover.

    Graeme 還指出,在價格通脹非常高的時期,全球許多新興市場的總體支出都在減少。因此,在佔聯合利華營業額大部分的市場中,保持競爭力的成本可能會更低。

  • But that's how we think about it. It's essential to protect the P&L, and therefore, we will lead on pricing. It's essential to ensure that our brands remain healthy. And therefore, we will spend adequately on R&D and marketing investment. And we will not pursue a short-term margin outcome but rather deliver the margin commitments that we've made over time.

    但這就是我們的想法。保護損益表至關重要,因此,我們將主導定價。確保我們的品牌保持健康至關重要。因此,我們將在研發和營銷投資上投入足夠的資金。我們不會追求短期的保證金結果,而是會兌現我們隨著時間的推移做出的保證金承諾。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Thanks, Alan. Next question comes from Alicia Forry at Investec.

    謝謝,艾倫。下一個問題來自 Investec 的 Alicia Forry。

  • Alicia Ann Forry - Consumer Analyst

    Alicia Ann Forry - Consumer Analyst

  • Just two questions. Maybe I missed this, but I'm not sure if you updated us on your competitiveness or the percent of business winning or holding share for the group. So I'm just curious whether during this highly disruptive pricing period, yes, is that being impacted? Can you provide us some sort of update on that?

    就兩個問題。也許我錯過了這一點,但我不確定您是否向我們更新了您的競爭力或為集團贏得或持有股份的業務百分比。所以我只是好奇在這個極具顛覆性的定價期間,是的,這是否受到影響?你能給我們提供一些關於這方面的更新嗎?

  • And then secondly, given that there's no big deals on the horizon now and you seem to be feeling more confident about the medium-term prospects for the business, why not raise the dividend a bit more or commit to a larger buyback?

    其次,鑑於現在沒有大筆交易,而且您似乎對業務的中期前景更有信心,為什麼不提高股息或承諾進行更大的回購呢?

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Right. I'll deal with the first question.

    正確的。我會處理第一個問題。

  • Now percent of business winning, Alicia, is very simple. It's 53% on a moving annual total basis. So that's the second year of competitive growth as measured by percent of business winning, which we're convinced is the best metric in this space.

    現在,Alicia 贏得業務的百分比非常簡單。每年移動總量為 53%。因此,以業務獲勝百分比衡量,這是競爭性增長的第二年,我們相信這是該領域的最佳指標。

  • Maybe more importantly, it's particularly strong in the areas that we've called out as a priority. So the U.S. has stepped up consistently to now 65% of business winning as we exited the year. India was over 70%. China was over 55%. And we are confident that, that is a real improvement in competitiveness.

    也許更重要的是,它在我們優先考慮的領域特別強大。因此,隨著我們今年的退出,美國一直在不斷地提高到現在 65% 的業務獲勝率。印度超過 70%。中國超過55%。我們相信,這是對競爭力的真正提升。

  • Of course, in the coming months, we will be playing the trade-off between leading on pricing, protecting the P&L of the business and maintaining competitiveness. And in general, what we'll do is we will lead pricing. And where competitors don't follow and we start to see an erosion of our competitiveness, we'll roll that back. Remaining competitive is our top priority.

    當然,在接下來的幾個月裡,我們將在定價領先、保護業務損益和保持競爭力之間進行權衡。總的來說,我們要做的是引領定價。在競爭對手不跟隨而我們開始看到我們的競爭力受到侵蝕的地方,我們會回滾。保持競爭力是我們的首要任務。

  • So yes, we were quite -- I think in both the release and the presentation, we were clear that it's running at 53% moving annual total business winning share.

    所以是的,我們相當 - 我認為在發布和演示文稿中,我們很清楚它以 53% 的移動年度總業務獲勝份額運行。

  • Graeme is going to cover the question about capital allocation and distribution of capital. Graeme?

    Graeme 將討論有關資本配置和資本分配的問題。格雷姆?

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes. So let me start with the dividend.

    是的。所以讓我從股息開始。

  • We look to pay an attractive dividend, and we've been doing that for the past 40 years. It's very, very important. We offer a good dividend yield.

    我們希望支付有吸引力的股息,過去 40 年來我們一直在這樣做。這是非常非常重要的。我們提供良好的股息收益率。

  • And we don't have a specific goal on this, but our payout ratio has generally been in the mid-60s. Sometimes it's been a little bit higher than that.

    我們對此沒有具體目標,但我們的派息率通常在 60 年代中期。有時它比那高一點。

  • And when you look across others in the sector, et cetera, we tend to have a higher level of payout ratio and a lower amount of distributions returned to shareholders in the form of share buybacks. Now we've been moving that over time. As I said on the call, since 2017 and including the EUR 3 billion buyback for '21, which -- sorry, '22, which we've announced this morning, that will add up to EUR 17 billion of capital return to shareholders since 2017. So it's a balance between these things. That's it.

    當您查看該行業的其他公司等時,我們往往具有更高水平的派息率和以股票回購形式返還給股東的分配量較低。現在,隨著時間的推移,我們一直在移動它。正如我在電話會議上所說,自 2017 年以來,包括 21 年 30 億歐元的回購,對不起,我們今天早上宣布的 22 年,這將給股東帶來 170 億歐元的資本回報2017. 所以這是這些事情之間的平衡。而已。

  • And it's anchored in our financial strategy. And our financial strategy is to sit with our credit rating in the A band, in the midpoint of the A brand (sic) [band], generally. That's consistent with a sort of long-term leverage number of around about 2x net debt-to-EBITDA. Sometimes 2.5, sometimes a bit lower than that. That largely depends on the timing of acquisition and disposal activity.

    它植根於我們的財務戰略。我們的財務策略是讓我們的信用評級處於 A 波段,通常位於 A 品牌 (原文如此) [波段] 的中點。這與大約 2 倍淨債務對 EBITDA 的長期槓桿率一致。有時 2.5,有時略低於此。這在很大程度上取決於收購和處置活動的時間安排。

  • And once we've invested back in the business, once we've funded our dividend and once we've looked at the bolt-on acquisition strategy and timing of divestments, that's what we bring to bear when we think about things like capital returns to shareholders. And that's how the EUR 3 billion has been sized in this case.

    一旦我們重新投資於業務,一旦我們為股息提供資金,一旦我們研究了附加收購策略和撤資時機,這就是我們在考慮資本回報等問題時所要承擔的給股東。這就是本案中 30 億歐元的規模。

  • It does anticipate that we get the after-tax proceeds of tea in the middle of next year. It anticipates another year of really strong cash generation. But in reality, the impact of the gross margin decline that we'll see in 2022 from the net material inflation will mean that earnings will be likely negative. And therefore, from a payout ratio perspective, we think about all of those things.

    它確實預計我們會在明年年中獲得茶葉的稅後收益。它預計又一年將產生真正強勁的現金產生。但實際上,我們將在 2022 年看到淨物質通脹帶來的毛利率下降的影響將意味著收益可能為負數。因此,從派息率的角度來看,我們會考慮所有這些事情。

  • It does allow us the flexibility to continue the portfolio change through bolt-on acquisitions and divestment that is contributing so strongly to the growth performance of the company.

    它確實使我們能夠靈活地通過加強收購和撤資來繼續改變投資組合,這對公司的增長業績做出瞭如此巨大的貢獻。

  • So that's a bit of a roundabout answer, but all of those things are relevant in thinking about the size of capital returns to shareholders.

    所以這是一個迂迴的答案,但所有這些都與考慮股東的資本回報規模有關。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Thanks, Graeme. Next question is from Guillaume Delmas at UBS.

    謝謝,格雷姆。下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Guillaume Delmas。

  • Guillaume Gerard Vincent Delmas - Analyst

    Guillaume Gerard Vincent Delmas - Analyst

  • A couple of questions from me, please. The first one is on your 2022 margin outlook but by division, product category. Would you expect all five business units to show some margin contraction? Or do 1 or 2 units particularly stand out? I mean in particular, I'm thinking Home Care could be the unit the most affected by this inflationary pressure versus maybe beauty not immune, of course, but maybe less than affected.

    請教我幾個問題。第一個是您的 2022 年利潤率展望,但按部門、產品類別劃分。您是否預計所有五個業務部門都會出現一些利潤率收縮?還是有 1 或 2 個單位特別突出?我的意思特別是,我認為家庭護理可能是受這種通脹壓力影響最大的部門,而美容當然不能倖免,但可能受影響較小。

  • And then my second question is on your employees. I mean it must have been quite a emotional rollercoaster, to say the least, in the past few weeks with first, the possibility of this transformational deal, potential big disposals as a result and now followed by an extensive reorganization and expected redundancy. So -- and all that, of course, are happening against a particularly challenging backdrop with record high inflation levels.

    然後我的第二個問題是關於您的員工的。我的意思是,至少可以說,在過去的幾周里,這一定是一場非常情緒化的過山車,首先是這項轉型交易的可能性,結果是潛在的大規模處置,然後是廣泛的重組和預期的裁員。所以——當然,所有這一切都是在通脹水平創歷史新高的特別具有挑戰性的背景下發生的。

  • So -- and maybe it's a very candid question, but what is the mood among Unilever's employees right now? And are you not worried to some extent maybe your employees are being far too distracted by these changes or some by some job uncertainty to actually be able to fully focus on flawless execution? So not questioning some -- the medium-term benefit of the reorganization but more curious about the short-term morale of the troops and the short-term disruption.

    所以——也許這是一個非常坦率的問題,但現在聯合利華員工的情緒如何?您是否在某種程度上不擔心您的員工可能被這些變化或某些工作不確定性分心而無法真正完全專注於完美的執行?所以不要質疑一些 - 重組的中期利益,但更多的是對部隊的短期士氣和短期破壞感到好奇。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Can I just say I think the second question is a particularly interesting and insightful question.

    是的。我可以說我認為第二個問題是一個特別有趣和有見地的問題。

  • On margin outlook by division, all will be impacted. It will be more pressure on businesses where cost of goods is a higher proportion of the sales, i.e., the lower-margin businesses. And that means Home Care will have a heavier task to restore margins than some parts of, for example, luxury beauty, which is very much more protected. So it's exactly as you characterized. But none of the businesses will be immune from the input cost pressure.

    在按部門劃分的利潤率前景上,都將受到影響。對商品成本佔銷售額比例較高的企業,即利潤率較低的企業,壓力會更大。這意味著家庭護理在恢復利潤方面的任務將比某些部分更重,例如奢侈品美容,後者受到的保護要大得多。所以這和你描述的完全一樣。但沒有一家企業能免受投入成本壓力的影響。

  • As far as employee sentiment is concerned, we measure Unilever's employee sentiment quite rigorously in a major annual survey, where we get a very, very high response rate, but also on a monthly sentiment survey. And employee engagement is running at an all-time high when we last measured it towards the tail end of last year and is well up in the top quartile of the world's leading companies in terms of culture and employee engagement.

    就員工情緒而言,我們在一項重大的年度調查中非常嚴格地衡量聯合利華的員工情緒,我們得到了非常、非常高的回复率,而且在每月的情緒調查中也是如此。當我們上次在去年年底對其進行測量時,員工敬業度正處於歷史最高水平,並且在文化和員工敬業度方面處於世界領先公司的前四分之一。

  • Other metrics that we would look at, for example, would be attrition, and our attrition in the company would suggest that this -- the great resignation hasn't arrived in Unilever yet. We have strong retention during and post the height of the pandemic.

    例如,我們會考慮的其他指標是人員流失率,而我們在公司的流失率表明這一點 - 聯合利華尚未迎來重大的辭職。在大流行期間和之後,我們有很強的保留率。

  • But I don't want to be naive about this. I don't like the -- our employees reading some of the things that have been in the press about the company, and it certainly will have been unsettling. But so far, we have no data to show that it's materially impacting sentiment. And it certainly is not materially impacting performance. Obviously, I can't say too much, but we started 2022 well.

    但我不想對此天真。我不喜歡我們的員工閱讀媒體上關於公司的一些事情,這肯定會令人不安。但到目前為止,我們沒有數據表明它對情緒產生了重大影響。它當然不會對性能產生重大影響。顯然,我不能說太多,但我們很好地開始了 2022 年。

  • Final thing is we are very active on internal communication. In fact, through the pandemic, we've been running weekly global town hall meetings with tens of thousands of employees participating every week. And the very next thing that Graeme and I will do now is go and share these results with our employees in an all-hands global town hall meeting, which is two-way. We take feedback and answer questions from employees just as we are doing here.

    最後一件事是我們非常積極地進行內部溝通。事實上,在大流行期間,我們每週都會舉行全球市政廳會議,每周有數万名員工參加。 Graeme 和我現在要做的下一件事就是在一次雙向的全球全體大會上與我們的員工分享這些結果。就像我們在這裡所做的那樣,我們接受員工的反饋並回答問題。

  • I would say our team are more focused and more sensitive to the performance of the business than the performance of the share price. And the performance of the business is strong. Let me stop there.

    我想說我們的團隊對業務表現比對股價表現更專注、更敏感。並且業務表現強勁。讓我停在那裡。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Thank you, Alan. Let's go straight to Jeremy Fialko at HSBC for the next question. Go ahead, Jeremy.

    謝謝你,艾倫。讓我們直接向匯豐銀行的 Jeremy Fialko 提問下一個問題。來吧,傑里米。

  • Jeremy David Fialko - Head of Consumer Staples Research of Europe

    Jeremy David Fialko - Head of Consumer Staples Research of Europe

  • A couple from me. First one, can you talk about trading down any evidence of that so far and what you expectations of that will be, particularly in some of the emerging markets with a lot of pricing?

    我的一對。第一個問題,您能否談談目前為止的任何證據以及您對此的預期,特別是在一些定價很高的新興市場?

  • And the second question is, can you talk about the role of the country manager in Unilever, kind of how that is changing and what the sort of accountability they will have in the new setup is.

    第二個問題是,你能談談聯合利華國家經理的角色嗎?這種變化是如何變化的,以及他們在新設置中將承擔什麼樣的責任。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Jeremy, these inflationary pressures are not unique to Unilever. And so it's important to understand that this is something that's affecting more or less all of our peers in the market.

    是的。傑里米,這些通脹壓力並不是聯合利華獨有的。因此,重要的是要了解,這或多或少會影響我們市場上的所有同行。

  • And over time, over the last 3 years, actually, we've seen trading up and trading down happening. And Unilever happens to have a very strong position in markets like Southeast Asia, like Latin America, like Africa in the lower part of the price pyramid. And you won't be surprised to know that our LatAm business, particularly our African business, and increasingly our Southeast Asian business -- businesses are returning to good growth probably with the exception of Indonesia, which is returning to growth but not where it needs to be just yet.

    事實上,隨著時間的推移,在過去的 3 年中,我們已經看到交易上漲和交易下跌發生。聯合利華恰好在東南亞、拉丁美洲、非洲等市場處於價格金字塔的較低位置。知道我們的拉丁美洲業務,尤其是我們的非洲業務,以及越來越多的東南亞業務,您不會感到驚訝 - 業務正在恢復良好增長,可能除了印度尼西亞,它正在恢復增長但不是它需要的地方只是還沒有。

  • Maybe another kind of surprise fact is that Unilever's bottom-of-the-pyramid brands tend to operate at more or less identical operating -- net operating margins as the rest of the portfolio. So if down trading were to happen, and there's some of it happening, we're well placed to mop that up and we do so without margin dilution. So it's not an overwhelming phenomenon. It is there at low levels, and we're well placed for it.

    也許另一種令人驚訝的事實是,聯合利華的金字塔底部品牌往往以或多或少相同的運營方式運營——淨運營利潤率與其他投資組合一樣。因此,如果發生下跌交易,並且其中發生了一些,我們完全有能力消除這種情況,而且我們這樣做不會稀釋保證金。所以這不是一個壓倒性的現象。它存在於低水平,我們已經做好了準備。

  • One comment I would make is that private label is not seeing any benefit from the current pricing trends in the market.

    我想說的一條評論是,自有品牌並沒有從當前的市場定價趨勢中看到任何好處。

  • The country manager question is a good one. The -- I've already touched on the fundamental change. Previously, the country manager in Unilever was responsible for delivering a P&L by trading off between categories. That will no longer be the case.

    國家經理的問題是一個很好的問題。 - 我已經談到了根本性的變化。以前,聯合利華的國家經理負責通過在類別之間進行權衡來提供損益表。情況將不再如此。

  • The country manager in the future will usually double-hat, running one of the business units across multiple geographies. So they're very exciting new roles for our country managers because in many cases, it will be coupled with running a business across multiple geographies.

    未來的國家經理通常會兼任,在多個地區經營一個業務部門。因此,對於我們的國家經理來說,他們是非常令人興奮的新角色,因為在許多情況下,這將與在多個地區開展業務相結合。

  • However, we still want someone on the ground who can take care of Unilever's reputation in the marketplace, engage with stakeholders like government and the media and, most importantly, create a sense of community for the Unilever team on the ground in that country.

    然而,我們仍然希望有人能夠維護聯合利華在市場上的聲譽,與政府和媒體等利益相關者接觸,最重要的是,為聯合利華在該國的實地團隊營造一種社區意識。

  • So it's a critical role. In many ways, it will be an enhanced role, so it will often involve looking across countries. But it will not involve today's responsibility of optimizing the P&L across categories within country.

    所以這是一個至關重要的角色。在許多方面,它將是一個增強的角色,因此它通常會涉及跨越國家。但它不會涉及當今在國內跨類別優化損益表的責任。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Okay. Thanks, Alan. I think -- we're looking at the clock here. I think we'll try and take a couple more. So Chris Pitcher at Redburn, would you like to ask your questions?

    好的。謝謝,艾倫。我想 - 我們正在看這裡的時鐘。我想我們會嘗試再多拿幾個。所以 Redburn 的 Chris Pitcher,你想問你的問題嗎?

  • Chris Pitcher - Partner of Beverages Research

    Chris Pitcher - Partner of Beverages Research

  • A couple of questions. Firstly, thank you for the candor around the GSK Consumer Healthcare approach. And I appreciate the IPO. The Foods & Refreshment were contingent on the acquisition. But how much work did you do on the benefits of that as a stand-alone business? And are you convinced these can be replicated under the existing structure, particularly considering there's competition for capital? Can you give us an idea of the relative returns for Ice Cream and Nutrition?

    幾個問題。首先,感謝您對 GSK 消費者保健方法的坦率。我很欣賞 IPO。 Foods & Refreshment 取決於此次收購。但是,作為一個獨立的企業,你為這方面的好處做了多少工作?您是否相信這些可以在現有結構下複製,特別是考慮到資本競爭?你能告訴我們冰淇淋和營養品的相對回報嗎?

  • And then secondly on the management of commodities and procurement. Thank you for that more detail. Raw materials are about 30% higher than they were in 2020 than they were back in 2008, but the net impact is almost double. Can you give us some idea of what your commodities are in euros versus 2008? And is there less productivity or reformulations to explain the scale of the impact this time? Or has something changed in your hedging going into '21 and '22? You mentioned, I think, you were relatively unhedged this year.

    其次是商品和採購的管理。謝謝你提供的更詳細的信息。原材料比 2020 年高出約 30%,比 2008 年高出約 30%,但淨影響幾乎翻了一番。你能告訴我們你的商品在歐元與 2008 年的對比嗎?這次是否有更少的生產力或重新制定來解釋影響的規模?或者您在 21 年和 22 年的套期保值方面發生了什麼變化?你提到,我認為,你今年相對沒有對沖。

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Right. Let me deal with the question on GSK.

    正確的。讓我來處理關於 GSK 的問題。

  • First of all, there are enormous dis-synergies associated with any separation of Foods & Refreshment. And that's why we ensured that we were clear that any separation there was conditional on a transformational acquisition.

    首先,食品和點心的任何分離都會產生巨大的協同效應。這就是為什麼我們確保我們清楚地知道,任何分離都以轉型收購為條件。

  • Secondly, these have become very attractive businesses. In fact, Ice Cream and Nutrition have outperformed the company over the last couple of years. And some of our fastest-growing brands are brands like Knorr growing at 7%, Hellmann's growing at 11%, Magnum growing at 9%, our Ben & Jerry's growing at 9%. So these businesses are in rude -- good health.

    其次,這些已經成為非常有吸引力的業務。事實上,冰淇淋和營養品在過去幾年中的表現優於該公司。我們增長最快的一些品牌是家樂增長 7%、Hellmann's 增長 11%、Magnum 增長 9%、Ben & Jerry's 增長 9% 等品牌。所以這些企業很粗魯——身體健康。

  • We do think that they will benefit from the increased focus that they will have from the separation into five business groups because there are different characteristics between an ice cream business and a beauty business. But they all benefit from many of Unilever's skills and capabilities and our deep presence around the world. So we are very confident that those businesses will thrive under Unilever. And thank you for picking up that any notion of separation was entirely contingent on a transformational acquisition, and that is off the table now.

    我們確實認為,由於冰淇淋業務和美容業務之間存在不同的特徵,他們將受益於將其拆分為五個業務組所帶來的更多關注。但他們都受益於聯合利華的許多技能和能力以及我們在世界各地的深入影響。因此,我們非常有信心,這些業務將在聯合利華的領導下蓬勃發展。感謝您認識到任何分離的概念都完全取決於轉型收購,而現在已經不在討論範圍內了。

  • Graeme?

    格雷姆?

  • Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

    Graeme David Pitkethly - CFO & Executive Director

  • Let me just give you -- I just want to start with some of the biggest commodities that we have and how they've moved.

    讓我告訴你——我只想從我們擁有的一些最大的商品以及它們是如何移動的開始。

  • So crude oil, which impacts resins, packaging, transportation, a lot of impact on surfactants within Home Care, building off where Alan was earlier in response to the question about relativity across parts of our business, that's up 60% year-on-year.

    因此,影響樹脂、包裝、運輸的原油,對家庭護理中的表面活性劑產生了很大影響,在艾倫早些時候回答關於我們部分業務的相對性問題的基礎上,同比增長了 60% .

  • We also have palm oil up 130% and soybean oil, which -- by the way, palm oil impacts pretty much all categories of Unilever, particularly Beauty & Personal Care. Particularly, Personal Care, it's -- is hit by palm oil. That's up 130%.

    我們的棕櫚油和大豆油也上漲了 130%,順便說一下,棕櫚油幾乎影響了聯合利華的所有類別,尤其是美容和個人護理。特別是個人護理,它受到棕櫚油的打擊。那是 130%。

  • And soybean oil, which largely goes into our dressings business, is up by 100%.

    主要用於我們的調味品業務的豆油增長了 100%。

  • And then you -- everybody is aware of the Shanghai freight up 5x and U.S. transportation up 2x.

    然後你——每個人都知道上海運費上漲 5 倍,美國運輸上漲 2 倍。

  • So that's the most relevant thing. I can't go back to 2008. I haven't got the data on it. But that's the scale of what we're facing. And that is on a cost base of EUR 23 billion. We have about EUR 20 billion of input costs and the transportation of those raw materials into our factories. And then on top of that, we have about EUR 3 billion of outbound logistics. So that's the addressable cost base on EUR 23 billion.

    所以這是最相關的事情。我無法回到 2008 年。我沒有關於它的數據。但這就是我們所面臨的規模。這是基於 230 億歐元的成本基礎。我們有大約 200 億歐元的投入成本以及將這些原材料運輸到我們工廠的成本。最重要的是,我們有大約 30 億歐元的出境物流。這就是 230 億歐元的可尋址成本基礎。

  • Now on hedging. There's about 40% of our portfolio of commodities that can be hedged, by which I mean that there's just no hedging market -- or hedges are not possible for the -- for 60%. But in that 40%, we do hedging for one disciplined reason. We don't hedge to create speculative positions or gains. We hedge in order to create the necessary window market by market, depending on consumer and customer dynamics, that allows us to land pricing to mitigate the impacts of inflation. That's how we hedge, and we do that market by market.

    現在對沖。我們的商品組合中有大約 40% 可以對沖,我的意思是,對於 60%,沒有對沖市場——或者對沖是不可能的。但在這 40% 中,我們出於一個嚴格的原因進行對沖。我們不會對沖以創造投機頭寸或收益。我們對沖是為了根據消費者和客戶的動態按市場創建必要的窗口市場,這使我們能夠制定定價以減輕通貨膨脹的影響。這就是我們對沖的方式,我們逐個市場地做那個市場。

  • And just to give you a sense of why there's a range of uncertainty around particularly the second half NMI outlook and why we have a 100 basis point range within the margin guidance that we've given you for 2022, currently in terms of what we have contracted or hedged or have in inventory, we're about 90% of Q1 is done, 70% of Q2, and then it drops to about 30% for Q3 and Q4 in terms of the procurement landscape. So that's why there's variability around that. Potentially opportunity if we see a normalization, but that's the landscape that we're facing.

    只是為了讓您了解為什麼存在一系列不確定性,尤其是下半年的 NMI 前景,以及為什麼我們在我們為您提供的 2022 年保證金指導範圍內有 100 個基點的範圍,目前就我們所擁有的而言合同或對沖或有庫存,我們大約完成了第一季度的 90%,第二季度的 70%,然後就採購環境而言,第三季度和第四季度下降到大約 30%。這就是為什麼圍繞它存在可變性的原因。如果我們看到正常化,可能會有機會,但這就是我們面臨的情況。

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Okay. Thank you, Graeme. Now if we could just squeeze in one last question, which will go to Karel Zoete at Kepler. Karel, can you just ask 1 final question rather than 2 because we are out of time?

    好的。謝謝你,格雷姆。現在,如果我們可以提出最後一個問題,那就是開普勒的 Karel Zoete。 Karel,你能不能只問 1 個最後的問題而不是 2 個,因為我們沒時間了?

  • Karel Zoete - Equity Research Analyst

    Karel Zoete - Equity Research Analyst

  • Then I'll keep it brief. On the new model, you already explained fewer touch points and a simpler business. But at the same time, you still have the same amount of categories in smaller countries. So in order to make the business really simpler and close, so why could -- why don't you consider to exit more small or low-growth categories?

    然後我會保持簡短。在新模型上,您已經解釋了更少的接觸點和更簡單的業務。但與此同時,您在較小的國家/地區仍然擁有相同數量的類別。因此,為了讓業務真正變得更簡單和緊密,那麼為什麼可以 - 為什麼不考慮退出更多小型或低增長類別?

  • And the other somewhat related question is, what is the speed that these kinds of changes can actually have an impact on the overall company that we can see it?

    另一個相關的問題是,這些變化實際上對我們所看到的整個公司產生影響的速度是多少?

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Karel. We certainly will look at underperforming brands and small parts the business and continue our program of disposals. But let me just give you a sense.

    謝謝,卡雷爾。我們當然會關注表現不佳的品牌和小部分業務,並繼續我們的處置計劃。但是讓我給你一個感覺。

  • Beauty & Wellbeing, Personal Care, Home Care and Nutrition are all EUR 10 billion or EUR 11 billion businesses in their own right. They're giants. Our Ice Cream business is a EUR 7 billion business in its own right, also a very substantial, big business.

    美容與健康、個人護理、家庭護理和營養品本身就是 100 億歐元或 110 億歐元的業務。他們是巨人。我們的冰淇淋業務本身就是一項價值 70 億歐元的業務,也是一項非常龐大的大型業務。

  • I didn't want to really go into all the details of the organization model because I didn't think it'd be interesting to people. But when we get into very small countries, we won't have a five-division structure within a small company -- country. We'll run it as a One Unilever business because we don't want to create that complexity. But overall, we'll continue pruning the business, but the five business groups that we're creating are all bringing tremendous scale.

    我不想真正深入研究組織模型的所有細節,因為我認為人們不會對此感興趣。但是當我們進入非常小的國家時,我們不會在一個小公司內有五個部門的結構——國家。我們將把它作為一個聯合利華公司來經營,因為我們不想創造那種複雜性。但總的來說,我們將繼續精簡業務,但我們正在創建的五個業務組都帶來了巨大的規模。

  • There's very high levels of excitement in the company about moving to this new model. People can see how it will make us more externally focused, more focused on consumers and customers. And people are itching to get stuck into it.

    公司對轉向這種新模式感到非常興奮。人們可以看到它將如何使我們更加關注外部,更加關註消費者和客戶。人們渴望陷入其中。

  • And of course, there'll be a transition period. I think Q2 is probably where there'll be the most transitional turmoil. But I'm hoping we'd start to see the impact of these changes as soon as the second half of this year. And I can tell you the five new business group leaders that we've appointed are also dying to roll up their sleeves and getting into really running these businesses with a high sense of accountability and responsibility. So thanks very much, Karel.

    當然,會有一個過渡期。我認為第二季度可能是最過渡性動蕩的地方。但我希望我們能在今年下半年開始看到這些變化的影響。我可以告訴你,我們任命的五位新業務組負責人也渴望捲起袖子,以高度的責任感和責任感真正經營這些業務。非常感謝,卡雷爾。

  • Should we wrap up there, Richard?

    我們應該在那裡結束嗎,理查德?

  • Richard Williams - Head of IR

    Richard Williams - Head of IR

  • Yes. Thanks, Alan. Would you like to wrap up?

    是的。謝謝,艾倫。你想結束嗎?

  • Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

    Alan W. Jope - CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, yes. I mean I don't really have any prepared remarks to wrap up just other than to say Unilever's overriding priority is growth and our performance continues to accelerate. We've just announced the highest growth in 9 years. Our big brands are driving that growth and are in great shape. We're growing well in the priority markets that we've called out, U.S., India and China, and in the priority channel that we are focused, on e-commerce growing 54 -- sorry, 44%. So a lot to be proud of.

    嗯,是。我的意思是,除了說聯合利華的首要任務是增長並且我們的業績繼續加速之外,我真的沒有任何準備好的評論來結束。我們剛剛宣布了 9 年來的最高增長。我們的大品牌正在推動這種增長,並且狀況良好。我們在我們提到的美國、印度和中國的優先市場以及我們關注的優先渠道中增長良好,電子商務增長了 54 - 抱歉,增長了 44%。有很多值得驕傲的地方。

  • We are focused and resolved in our determination to unlock the true value of this company, and I look forward very much to engaging particularly with the shareholders on the call in the coming weeks ahead. So thank you very much, indeed, for your time. And God bless and see you soon.

    我們專注並決心釋放這家公司的真正價值,我非常期待在未來幾週的電話會議上與股東特別互動。非常感謝您抽出寶貴的時間。上帝保佑,很快見到你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much. This now concludes your call for today and thank you very much for joining. You may now disconnect. Thank you.

    非常感謝。您今天的電話到此結束,非常感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連接。謝謝你。