聯合利華 (UL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Unilever's Q4 and Full Year 2022 Results. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎來到聯合利華的第四季度和 2022 年全年業績。 （操作員說明）

We would like to now hand over to Richard Williams, Unilever's Head of Investor Relations to begin the presentation.

我們現在想請聯合利華投資者關係主管理查德威廉姆斯開始介紹。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Unilever's full year results. We expect prepared remarks to be around 30 minutes, followed by Q&A of around 30 minutes. All of today's webcast is available live, transcribed on the screen.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎來到聯合利華的全年業績。我們預計準備好的發言時間約為 30 分鐘，然後是大約 30 分鐘的問答時間。今天的所有網絡廣播都可以現場直播，並在屏幕上轉錄。

First, can I draw your attention to the disclaimer relating to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. And then straightaway, I hand it over to you, Alan.

首先，我能否提請您注意與前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 措施相關的免責聲明。然後馬上，我把它交給你，艾倫。

Thanks, Richard, and good morning, everybody. Before we start, I'm sure you will all have seen by now that Unilever has appointed Hein Schumacher as our new CEO as from the 1st of July, and I'd like to use this moment to congratulate Hein on his appointment. From the limited time that we spent together over the last few months, I have every confidence that Hein will be a great leader for Unilever, and he will take the business to new heights in the coming years. I look forward to continuing to work with them on our Board ahead of handing over the keys as CEO at the end of June. But in the meantime, it is full steam ahead to sustain the current good momentum in Unilever's business. My team and I remain fully focused on that task at hand.

謝謝，理查德，大家早上好。在我們開始之前，我相信你們現在都已經看到聯合利華已任命 Hein Schumacher 從 7 月 1 日起擔任我們的新任首席執行官，我想藉此機會祝賀 Hein 的任命。從過去幾個月我們在一起度過的有限時間來看，我完全相信 Hein 將成為聯合利華的偉大領導者，他將在未來幾年將業務推向新的高度。我期待著在 6 月底交出 CEO 的鑰匙之前繼續與他們在我們的董事會中合作。但與此同時，維持聯合利華業務目前的良好勢頭正在全速前進。我和我的團隊仍然完全專注於手頭的任務。

Right. This is how we'll run today. I'm going to give a quick overview, and then Graeme will take you through the details of the results. I'll then give an update of our progress against our strategy, and Graeme share our outlook before, of course, we move on to take questions.

正確的。這就是我們今天的跑步方式。我將簡要介紹一下，然後 Graeme 將帶您了解結果的詳細信息。然後我會更新我們的戰略進展情況，Graeme 會分享我們的展望，當然，我們會繼續提問。

2022 was an important year for Unilever. We navigated levels of commodity cost increases that we've not seen in a generation, taking price increases responsibly to protect the shape of the P&L, and thereby enabling us to continue to invest in our brands. We manage the impact on volume as well, and as a result, delivered growth levels not seen for over a decade. We surpassed EUR 60 billion of turnover for the first time and added 2 more brands, Lifebuoy and Comfort, to the billion-euro club, which now stands at 14 brands.

2022 年對聯合利華來說是重要的一年。我們應對了一代人未曾見過的商品成本上漲水平，負責任地採取價格上漲以保護損益表，從而使我們能夠繼續投資於我們的品牌。我們也管理對數量的影響，因此實現了十多年來未見的增長水平。我們的營業額首次超過 600 億歐元，並在十億歐元俱樂部中增加了 2 個品牌，Lifebuoy 和 Comfort，目前已有 14 個品牌。

And then within that group, Dirt is Good passed the EUR 4 billion, and Hellmann's and Rexona passed EUR 2 billion. The important point here is, of course, not the rather arbitrary turnover milestones, but the contribution of our biggest and best brands to Unilever's growth. The EUR 1 billion plus brands collectively grew at 11% for the year. And these brands are our first priority for innovation and for investment.

然後在該組中，Dirt is Good 超過了 40 億歐元，Hellmann's 和 Rexona 超過了 20 億歐元。當然，這裡的重點不是相當武斷的營業額里程碑，而是我們最大和最好的品牌對聯合利華增長的貢獻。年銷售額超過 10 億歐元的品牌總體增長了 11%。這些品牌是我們創新和投資的首要任務。

Through this volatile period, we landed margin in line with guidance. We exited the global tea business. And we fundamentally reward Unilever, implementing our new organization model, which is delivering increase speed, accountability and focus. There is more opportunity and more value creation ahead from unlocking the full potential of Unilever. 2022 represented a big step forward, and we come into 2023 full of energy and ambition to accelerate the pace of our transformation.

在這段動盪時期，我們的利潤率符合指引。我們退出了全球茶葉業務。我們從根本上獎勵聯合利華，實施我們的新組織模型，該模型正在提供更高的速度、問責制和重點。通過釋放聯合利華的全部潛力，未來會有更多機會和更多價值創造。 2022年向前邁進了一大步，我們充滿活力和雄心壯志地進入2023年，加快轉型步伐。

First, let's review our performance in 2022. We delivered Q4 underlying sales growth of 9.2% that was driven by 13.3% price with volumes down 3.6%, and that resulted in full year growth of 9% with price up 11.3% and volumes down 2.1%. While the volume impact was greater than in previous quarters, it is still less than we would have modeled at these levels of price growth. We saw a measure of competitiveness percent business winning a dip below 50% on an MAT basis in Q4. This was not altogether unexpected as we've trailed clearly in our previous calls. It is a consequence of the necessary pricing action that we're taking in the face of extraordinary inflation, and also some decisions that we're taking to streamline our product portfolio.

首先，讓我們回顧一下我們在 2022 年的業績。我們在第四季度實現了 9.2% 的基本銷售額增長，這是由 13.3% 的價格推動的，銷量下降 3.6%，這導致全年增長 9%，價格上漲 11.3%，銷量下降 2.1% %。雖然銷量影響大於前幾個季度，但仍低於我們在這些價格增長水平上的建模。我們看到，在第 4 季度，在 MAT 的基礎上，一項衡量競爭力的業務百分比下降到 50% 以下。這並不完全出乎意料，因為我們在之前的電話會議中已經明顯落後。這是我們在面對異常通貨膨脹時採取的必要定價行動的結果，也是我們為簡化產品組合而採取的一些決定的結果。

We faced further commodity cost increases in the first half of '23, as Graeme will explain. However, our brands are strong and we are investing for growth. As things stand, I expect business winning to be back over 50% in the second half of 2023.

正如格雷姆將解釋的那樣，我們在 23 年上半年面臨商品成本進一步增加的問題。然而，我們的品牌很強大，我們正在為增長而投資。從目前的情況來看，我預計到 2023 年下半年業務贏利將恢復 50% 以上。

Underlying operating margin for the year was 16.1%, and that's down 230 basis points versus 2021, bang in line with our guidance. Absolute underlying operating profit was up slightly at EUR 9.7 billion, helped by favorable currency. Underlying earnings per share were EUR 2.57. That's down 2.1% as reported, down 8.2% in constant exchange rates.

全年基本營業利潤率為 16.1%，與 2021 年相比下降了 230 個基點，符合我們的指引。得益於有利的貨幣，絕對基礎營業利潤小幅上升至 97 億歐元。基本每股收益為 2.57 歐元。據報導，這下降了 2.1%，按固定匯率計算下降了 8.2%。

Free cash flow was robust at EUR 5.2 billion, and that's reflecting a cash conversion ratio of 97% and after financing an increase in our capital expenditure of EUR 400 million.

自由現金流強勁，達到 52 億歐元，這反映了 97% 的現金轉換率，並且在融資後我們的資本支出增加了 4 億歐元。

Let's take a closer look at these results through the lens of the 5 business groups. I hope you'll see how the business group structure is allowing a differentiated focus on categories that are seeing different consumer behaviors through this inflationary period. Beauty & Wellbeing reported 7.8% underlying sales growth for the year, 7.5% price and positive volume of 0.3%. Fourth quarter growth was 7.7%, and that's 8.4% of price, minus 0.6% on volume.

讓我們通過 5 個業務組的鏡頭仔細看看這些結果。我希望您會看到業務組結構如何允許在這個通貨膨脹時期對看到不同消費者行為的類別進行差異化關注。 Beauty & Wellbeing 報告全年基本銷售額增長 7.8%，價格增長 7.5%，銷量增長 0.3%。第四季度增長率為 7.7%，價格為 8.4%，銷量為 0.6%。

Prestige Beauty delivered another year of double-digit growth with a strong performance by Paula's Choice, which was included in underlying sales growth from the third quarter onwards. Hourglass, Tatcha, Living Proof all finished the year strongly.

Prestige Beauty 在 Paula's Choice 的強勁表現下又實現了兩位數的增長，這從第三季度開始就計入了基礎銷售增長。 Hourglass、Tatcha、Living Proof 都強勢結束了這一年。

Health & Wellbeing also maintained double-digit growth through the year, powered by liquid IV, although Q4 did see a slowdown in the vitamins, minerals and supplements market globally.

儘管第四季度全球維生素、礦物質和補充劑市場確實出現放緩，但在液體靜脈注射的推動下，健康與福祉在全年也保持了兩位數的增長。

Skin Care grew mid-single digits, with volumes only marginally down, and we saw particularly good performance from Vaseline in Southeast Asia helped by the continuing success of the Gluta-Hya innovation.

護膚品業務實現中等個位數增長，銷量僅略有下降，我們看到凡士林在東南亞的出色表現得益於 Gluta-Hya 創新的持續成功。

Carver's performance was negatively impacted by reduced consumer demand in China and by disruptions in cross-border trade. While Carver's recent performance has been disappointing, we remain confident about the future opportunity for the AHC brand as China reopens post COVID. Hair also grew mid-single digits with a strong performance from our largest hair care brand, Sunsilk, which benefited from its naturals relaunch. Nexxus also had a very good year and is a good example of our strategy to premiumize our portfolio in Hair Care and Skin Care.

Carver 的業績受到中國消費者需求下降和跨境貿易中斷的負面影響。儘管 Carver 最近的表現令人失望，但隨著中國在 COVID 後重新開放，我們對 AHC 品牌的未來機遇充滿信心。得益於我們最大的護髮品牌夏士蓮 (Sunsilk) 的強勁表現，頭髮也實現了中等個位數增長，該品牌得益於其重新推出的天然產品。 Nexxus 也有一個非常好的一年，並且是我們在頭髮護理和皮膚護理領域提升產品組合戰略的一個很好的例子。

Personal Care reported 7.9% underlying sales growth for the year with 12.1% price and volume lower by 3.7%. Fourth quarter growth was 9.1%, 13% of price and minus 3.5 volume. Deodorants had a particularly strong year with positive volumes despite double-digit pricing, Rexona, Dove and Axe all contributed to this excellent performance. Rexona's 72-hour nonstop protection product is a particular highlight. It's a great example of where we have a significant product superiority, which we will continue to drive as a multiyear growth initiative.

個人護理品報告全年基本銷售額增長 7.9%，價格增長 12.1%，銷量下降 3.7%。第四季度增長率為 9.1%，價格為 13%，銷量為負 3.5%。除臭劑的銷量表現尤為強勁，儘管定價兩位數，但 Rexona、Dove 和 Axe 都為這一出色表現做出了貢獻。 Rexona 的 72 小時不間斷保護產品是一個特別的亮點。這是我們擁有顯著產品優勢的一個很好的例子，我們將繼續推動這一多年增長計劃。

Skin Cleansing grew well with double-digit pricing, partially offset by volume declines. Dove saw the introduction of the improved deep moisture body wash, while Lux introduced new bars with enhanced skin care benefits.

皮膚清潔業務以兩位數的定價增長良好，部分被銷量下降所抵消。 Dove 看到了改進的深層保濕沐浴露的推出，而 Lux 推出了具有增強護膚功效的新皂條。

Oral Care also grew well, helped by the launch of Pepsodent -- sorry, the relaunch of Pepsodent. Dollar Shave Club, whilst marginally profitable, continued to decline in a fiercely competitive market. We've been clear that performance of Dollar Shave Club has not met our expectations. And consequently, we've taken an impairment charge on DSC for our full year 2022 results.

在 Pepsodent 的推出的幫助下，口腔護理也增長良好——抱歉，Pepsodent 的重新推出。 Dollar Shave Club 雖然微利，但在競爭激烈的市場中繼續下滑。我們很清楚 Dollar Shave Club 的表現沒有達到我們的預期。因此，我們對 DSC 的 2022 年全年業績計提了減值費用。

Home Care reported 11.8% underlying sales growth for the year, 15.9% price, with volumes lower by 3.5%. Fourth quarter growth was 12.3%, driven by 16.7% price with volumes down 3.8%. Price elasticity has remained stable, and volumes have held up better than our models predicted. The Home Care business group has undertaken a rigorous program to reduce complexity, and this has led to some short-term volume loss through 2022 with a greater impact in the second half.

家庭護理報告全年基本銷售額增長 11.8%，價格增長 15.9%，銷量下降 3.5%。第四季度增長 12.3%，價格增長 16.7%，銷量下降 3.8%。價格彈性保持穩定，交易量比我們的模型預測的要好。家庭護理業務集團已採取嚴格的計劃來降低複雜性，這導致到 2022 年出現一些短期銷量損失，並在下半年產生更大影響。

Fabric Cleaning had a particularly strong year, growing double-digit overall and in all formats and all main brands. And this growth was very broad-based across geographies, with South Asia, Brazil and Turkey all delivering double-digit growth. Fabric enhancers also grew well, helped by the Ultimate Care range, which protects clothes from damage as well as leaving them smelling fantastic.

Fabric Cleaning 在這一年表現尤為強勁，在所有格式和所有主要品牌中均實現了兩位數的整體增長。這種增長在各個地區的基礎都非常廣泛，南亞、巴西和土耳其都實現了兩位數的增長。在 Ultimate Care 系列的幫助下，織物增強劑也增長良好，它可以保護衣服免受損壞，並讓它們聞起來很香。

Home & Hygiene grew more modestly, in part due to changing consumer habits in Europe as people dial down their need for disinfection in the post-COVID era, but also because surface and toilet cleaning is a relatively more discretionary category with higher elasticity in the face of rising prices.

家庭和衛生用品增長較為溫和，部分原因是歐洲消費者習慣的改變，因為人們在後 COVID 時代降低了對消毒的需求，但也因為表面和廁所清潔是一個相對更隨意的類別，面部彈性更高價格上漲。

Nutrition. Nutrition grew 8.6% in the year, price up 10.9% and volumes down 2.1%. Fourth quarter growth was 10.1%, driven by 14.7% of price and volumes down 4.1%, and that includes the impact of lockdowns on our large Food Solutions business in China.

營養。全年營養品增長 8.6%，價格上漲 10.9%，銷量下降 2.1%。第四季度增長 10.1%，受價格增長 14.7% 和銷量下降 4.1% 的推動，其中包括停工對我們在中國的大型食品解決方案業務的影響。

Dressings grew double digit in 2022, driven particularly by Hellmann's and particularly in North America. We benefited from the continuing success of the Make Taste, Not Waste campaign. And I must submit we are looking forward to seeing the business impact of this year's Hellmann's Super Bowl campaign. We also took advantage of the good growth momentum to exit some unprofitable lines, which impacted the volume and market share but strengthens the long-term health of our Dressings business.

敷料在 2022 年增長了兩位數，這尤其受到 Hellmann's 的推動，尤其是在北美。我們受益於 Make Taste, Not Waste 活動的持續成功。我必須承認，我們期待看到今年 Hellmann's Super Bowl 活動的商業影響。我們還利用良好的增長勢頭退出了一些無利可圖的產品線，這影響了銷量和市場份額，但加強了我們敷料業務的長期健康發展。

Scratch Cooking Aids grew mid-single digit with Knorr, successfully introducing Zero Salt bouillons. And despite the lockdowns in China, our global professional Food Solutions business delivered double-digit growth in 2022 and actually returned to pre-pandemic volumes.

Scratch Cooking Aids 與 Knorr 一起實現了中個位數增長，成功推出了零鹽肉湯。儘管中國處於封鎖狀態，但我們的全球專業食品解決方案業務在 2022 年實現了兩位數的增長，實際上恢復到了大流行前的水平。

Ice Cream grew 9% in the year with price up 9.7%, volumes down only 0.7%. Fourth quarter growth was 2.9% with pricing of 14.2% and a volume decline of 9.9%. And we really need to break down these results to understand them, and let me do that for the full year results.

冰淇淋全年增長 9%，價格上漲 9.7%，銷量僅下降 0.7%。第四季度增長率為 2.9%，定價為 14.2%，銷量下降 9.9%。我們真的需要分解這些結果來理解它們，讓我為全年結果做這個。

Our out-of-home Ice Cream business, which is roughly 40% of total ice cream, recovered very strongly, and that was helped by favorable summer weather in Europe though volumes in total are not yet back to pre-pandemic levels, and that partly reflects the closure of some ice cream sales outlets.

我們的戶外冰淇淋業務（約佔冰淇淋總量的 40%）恢復強勁，這得益於歐洲夏季有利的天氣，儘管總量尚未恢復到大流行前的水平，而且部分反映了一些冰淇淋銷售網點的關閉。

In-home Ice Cream, which is 60% of the total, also grew in the year with strong price growth, and this came on top of lower volumes, which reflects a step down from elevated sales during the lockdown period. Nevertheless, in-home volume and value indices are still both above 2019 levels. In the fourth quarter, in-home delivered positive underlying sales growth with lower volumes for the reasons that I've just described as well as higher levels of pricing and some choices we made to step away from unprofitable volumes.

佔總量 60% 的家用冰淇淋在這一年中也隨著價格的強勁增長而增長，這是在銷量下降的基礎上出現的，這反映出封鎖期間銷量的增長有所下降。儘管如此，家庭數量和價值指數仍高於 2019 年的水平。在第四季度，由於我剛才描述的原因以及較高的定價水平和我們為擺脫無利可圖的數量而做出的一些選擇，家庭實現了積極的潛在銷售增長和較低的銷量。

Out-of-home volumes in the fourth quarter were impacted by an early close to the season. What was happening was that shopkeepers in some markets responded to fears about rising energy costs by switching off their cabinets earlier than they otherwise would have done. In practice, the fears did not materialize, and so we don't anticipate this having a big impact on the start of the 2023 season.

第四季度的戶外活動量受到季節提前結束的影響。正在發生的事情是，一些市場的店主通過比其他方式更早關閉櫥櫃來應對能源成本上漲的擔憂。實際上，恐懼並沒有成為現實，因此我們預計這不會對 2023 賽季的開始產生重大影響。

Magnum and Cornetto are both in great shape. They grew double digit in 2022, Magnum driven by the classic remix innovation and Cornetto benefiting from the introduction of the new premium format, Cornetto Rose, again, an example of a successful multiyear growth initiative. We remain very optimistic about the outlook and prospects for our ice cream business.

Magnum 和 Cornetto 的狀態都很好。他們在 2022 年實現了兩位數的增長，Magnum 受到經典混音創新的推動，而 Cornetto 則受益於新的優質格式 Cornetto Rose 的推出，這再次成為成功的多年增長計劃的一個例子。我們對冰淇淋業務的前景和前景仍然非常樂觀。

So that completes a quick run-through of the business group performances. And I'd like to hand over to Graeme, who'll cover the 2022 full year results in a bit more detail. Graeme?

這樣就完成了對業務組績效的快速瀏覽。我想交給格雷姆，他將更詳細地介紹 2022 年全年的結果。格雷姆？

Thanks, Alan. Good morning, everybody. As Alan just said, full year underlying sales growth was 9%, driven by price at 11.3% and with volumes modestly down by 2.1%. All 5 of our business groups grew driven, as Alan said, by the EUR 1 billion plus brands.

謝謝，艾倫。大家早上好。正如艾倫剛才所說，全年基本銷售額增長 9%，受價格上漲 11.3% 和銷量小幅下降 2.1% 的推動。正如艾倫所說，我們所有 5 個業務集團的增長都受到 10 億歐元以上品牌的推動。

Now prices stepped up sequentially for 8 quarters in response to rising costs. Volumes have held up well overall, and we continue to carefully manage the triangle of price, margin and competitiveness market by market.

由於成本上升，現在價格已經連續 8 個季度上漲。整體銷量保持良好，我們繼續謹慎管理價格、利潤率和市場競爭力的三角關係。

Turnover for the year was EUR 60.1 billion. That's up 14.5% versus 2021. Underlying sales growth contributed 9%, as we've just seen, and we saw a negative impact from acquisitions and disposals of 1% with the inclusion of Prestige Beauty brands, Paula's Choice and Nutrafol, offset by the exit of the global tea business. Currency had a positive impact of 6.2% as our basket of currencies strengthened against the euro.

全年營業額為 601 億歐元。與 2021 年相比增長了 14.5%。正如我們剛剛看到的那樣，基礎銷售額增長貢獻了 9%，我們看到收購和出售 1% 的負面影響，包括 Prestige Beauty 品牌、Paula's Choice 和 Nutrafol，被退出全球茶葉業務。由於我們的一籃子貨幣兌歐元走強，貨幣產生了 6.2% 的積極影響。

If we look now at performance through the regional lens, our largest region, Asia Pacific Africa, grew by 10.3% in the year with 11.3% from price and minus 0.9% volume. In the fourth quarter, growth remained strong, driven by India, Southeast Asia and Africa. China declined due to the period of strict lockdowns, which impacted our large China foodservice business, in particular.

如果我們現在從區域角度來看業績，我們最大的地區亞太非洲今年增長了 10.3%，其中價格增長 11.3%，銷量下降 0.9%。第四季度，在印度、東南亞和非洲的推動下，增長依然強勁。中國由於嚴格的封鎖期而下滑，這尤其影響了我們在中國的大型餐飲服務業務。

Indonesia saw negative volumes as we reset price and promotional strategies and reduced trade stocks in a number of categories across selected channels. The market context in Indonesia remains highly competitive, but every one of our business groups is focusing attention on this very important market. And from a base of mid-single-digit growth in 2022, we are confident that performance will continue to improve in the coming year.

由於我們重新調整了價格和促銷策略，並減少了選定渠道中多個類別的貿易庫存，印度尼西亞出現了負增長。印度尼西亞的市場環境仍然競爭激烈，但我們每個業務集團都將注意力集中在這個非常重要的市場上。從 2022 年中個位數增長的基數來看，我們有信心來年業績將繼續改善。

North America grew 7.9%, with price at 9.4% and volumes down only 1.4% despite constrained supply during the year in a number of our categories. Pricing remains strong at 10.1% in the fourth quarter, with volumes down 4%. This, in part, reflects the proactive steps we've taken in Nutrition and in Ice Cream to remove unprofitable business, as Alan just highlighted a few seconds ago.

北美增長 7.9%，價格上漲 9.4%，銷量僅下降 1.4%，儘管年內我們的多個品類供應受限。定價在第四季度保持強勁，為 10.1%，銷量下降 4%。這在一定程度上反映了我們在營養和冰淇淋領域採取的積極措施，以消除無利可圖的業務，正如艾倫幾秒鐘前剛剛強調的那樣。

Latin America grew 14.9%, with price up 20.4%, offset by volumes, which declined 4.6%. Price elasticity remains stable and lower than our historical models would have predicted. This reflects a well-positioned portfolio and the strength of both our brands and our end market execution across the region.

拉丁美洲增長 14.9%，價格上漲 20.4%，被銷量下降 4.6% 所抵消。價格彈性保持穩定，低於我們歷史模型的預測。這反映了我們在該地區的品牌和終端市場執行力的優勢。

Europe grew 4.1% in the full year, with price up 8.3% and volume down 3.9%. The fourth quarter saw a step-up in price to 13.2% and a volume decline of 6.8%. All our business groups were down in volume with Ice Cream, the most heavily impacted. Price elasticity in Europe has increased during the course of 2022, and we've recently seen share gains by private label in Europe in most categories as the economic situation weighs on shoppers.

歐洲全年增長 4.1%，價格上漲 8.3%，銷量下降 3.9%。第四季度價格上漲 13.2%，銷量下降 6.8%。我們所有業務部門的銷量都下降了，其中受影響最嚴重的是冰淇淋。歐洲的價格彈性在 2022 年期間有所增加，而且由於經濟形勢對購物者造成壓力，我們最近看到歐洲自有品牌在大多數類別中的份額有所增加。

This brings me on then to margins. Underlying operating margin for the full year was 16.1%. That's down 230 basis points from last year and in line with our guidance. Gross margin was down 210 basis points, reflecting the fact that despite stepping up pricing and landing higher delivery from our savings programs, we were very mindful of the pressure on consumers and chose not to fully offset the extraordinary level of cost inflation through pricing.

這讓我進入了邊緣。全年基本營業利潤率為 16.1%。這比去年下降了 230 個基點，符合我們的指導。毛利率下降了 210 個基點，這反映出儘管我們提高了定價並從我們的儲蓄計劃中獲得更高的交付量，但我們非常注意消費者的壓力，並選擇不通過定價來完全抵消異常高的成本通脹水平。

We did, however, continue to invest more behind our brands with brand and marketing investment up EUR 0.5 billion in constant currencies versus the prior year and with more than 80% of that investment going directly into media. BMI as a percentage of turnover was down 10 basis points, though this is perhaps less useful as a measure when turnover has been driven so high by pricing.

然而，我們確實繼續加大對品牌的投資，以固定匯率計算的品牌和營銷投資比上一年增加了 5 億歐元，其中超過 80% 的投資直接用於媒體。 BMI 佔營業額的百分比下降了 10 個基點，但當營業額因價格而如此之高時，這可能不太有用。

That said, however, media investment as a percentage of turnover was up in Beauty & Wellbeing, in Personal Care and in Home Care. Now our tracking measures reassure us that our support levers are competitive, and the business groups have built strong plans for 2023, which will reflect further increases in brand and marketing investment.

儘管如此，媒體投資佔營業額的百分比在美容與健康、個人護理和家庭護理領域有所上升。現在，我們的跟踪措施讓我們放心，我們的支持槓桿具有競爭力，而且業務部門已經為 2023 年制定了強有力的計劃，這將反映出品牌和營銷投資的進一步增加。

Overheads were up 30 basis points, with productivity programs and turnover leverage more than offset by further capability investments in areas like our 29 digital marketing, media and e-commerce hubs around the world, which Alan is going to comment on a little later. We also have a mix effect in overheads caused by the higher growth of Prestige Beauty.

管理費用增加了 30 個基點，生產力計劃和營業額槓桿被我們在全球 29 個數字營銷、媒體和電子商務中心等領域的進一步能力投資所抵消，艾倫稍後將對此發表評論。由於 Prestige Beauty 的高速增長，我們對間接費用也產生了混合效應。

As well as looking at percent margins, we look at absolute profit delivery in euros. Underlying operating profit was up 0.5% at EUR 9.7 billion. This reflects the fact that the lower underlying operating margin was offset by strong turnover growth with a little benefit from favorable currency translation.

除了查看百分比利潤外，我們還查看以歐元計算的絕對利潤交付。基礎營業利潤增長 0.5%，達到 97 億歐元。這反映了一個事實，即較低的基本營業利潤率被強勁的營業額增長所抵消，而有利的貨幣換算帶來的好處很少。

It's important to put the decline in gross margin into perspective, and this chart sets this out quite clearly. The net materials inflation, or NMI, that we've experienced this year has been the highest for decades. Inflation was already rising before the war in Ukraine, and the conflict only served to put more pressure on commodity and energy costs.

重要的是要正確看待毛利率的下降，這張圖表清楚地說明了這一點。我們今年經歷的淨材料通脹 (NMI) 是幾十年來最高的。在烏克蘭戰爭之前，通貨膨脹率已經上升，而衝突只會給商品和能源成本帶來更大的壓力。

The total increase in 2022 landed at EUR 4.3 billion, only slightly below the EUR 4.5 billion that we indicated in our first half results call. We reacted quickly to the cost inflation and implemented price increases through the year with underlying price growth stepping up sequentially across the quarters and reaching 13.3% in the fourth quarter, contributing to a full year increase of 11.3%. Even with these increases, we fell a little short of recovering the full amount of the NMI reaching price coverage of around 95% over the complete year. This is, however, not the whole inflation picture. You can see from the chart that we saw a further EUR 1 billion of cost inflation in our production and logistics costs, of which EUR 0.7 billion fell in the second half.

2022 年的總增長為 43 億歐元，僅略低於我們在上半年業績電話會議中指出的 45 億歐元。我們對成本通脹迅速做出反應，並在全年實施了價格上漲，基礎價格增長在各個季度連續上升，第四季度達到 13.3%，全年增長 11.3%。即使有這些增長，我們仍未能收回 NMI 的全部數量，在全年達到約 95% 的價格覆蓋率。然而，這並不是通貨膨脹的全部情況。從圖表中可以看出，我們的生產和物流成本進一步上漲了 10 億歐元，其中下半年下降了 7 億歐元。

Now these cost lines have not moved very much historically. So we don't normally cover them in detail, but 2022 was different, and we saw significant increases in fuel, energy and labor costs in our supply chain. This theme is relevant for 2023, and I'll come back to it a little later.

現在，這些成本線在歷史上並沒有發生太大變化。所以我們通常不會詳細介紹它們，但 2022 年不同，我們看到供應鏈中的燃料、能源和勞動力成本顯著增加。這個主題與 2023 年相關，稍後我會再談。

Taking both NMI and production and logistics inflation into account. Our price coverage to date sits at around 75%. So still some way short of the 100% needed to hold gross margin. And as a result of this, the gross margin was down by 210 basis points. This is normal in an inflationary cost environment, and we will need to see higher price coverage together with continued delivery from our savings programs in order to build gross margin back up.

同時考慮 NMI 和生產及物流通貨膨脹。迄今為止，我們的價格覆蓋率約為 75%。因此，距離保持毛利率所需的 100% 仍有一段距離。因此，毛利率下降了 210 個基點。這在通貨膨脹的成本環境中是正常的，我們需要看到更高的價格覆蓋率以及我們的儲蓄計劃的持續交付，以建立毛利率。

Underlying earnings per share were down 2.1% in current currency with a favorable foreign exchange tailwind contributing 6.1%. Constant earnings per share were down 8.2%, mainly due to the lower operating margin, higher financing costs and tax, partially offset by the impact of the share buyback program. The higher tax rate reflects changes in profit mix and favorable one-offs in the prior year, which led to an underlying effective tax rate of 24.1% versus 22.6% last year.

按當前貨幣計算，每股基本收益下降 2.1%，有利的外匯順風貢獻了 6.1%。固定每股收益下降 8.2%，主要是由於較低的營業利潤率、較高的融資成本和稅收，部分被股票回購計劃的影響所抵消。較高的稅率反映了上一年利潤結構的變化和有利的一次性優惠，這導致基本有效稅率為 24.1%，而去年為 22.6%。

Free cash flow for the year was EUR 5.2 billion, down by EUR 1.2 billion. This includes an increase of EUR 0.4 billion in CapEx, which is now back to 2019 levels. Also reflects investments in higher inventory to support customer service levels and a higher tax outflow, including EUR 330 million tax paid on the tea disposal.

全年自由現金流為 52 億歐元，減少了 12 億歐元。這包括增加 4 億歐元的資本支出，目前已回到 2019 年的水平。還反映了為支持客戶服務水平而對更高庫存的投資和更高的稅收流出，包括為茶葉處理支付的 3.3 億歐元稅收。

Our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio fell from 2.2x at the end of 2021 to 2.1x, which is in line with our broad leverage target. Our net debt level stands at EUR 23.7 billion, down from EUR 25.5 billion at the 2021 close. The reduction was driven by our free cash flow generation and the net inflow from M&A, partially offset by dividends, the share buybacks and an adverse currency movement.

我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率從 2021 年底的 2.2 倍降至 2.1 倍，這符合我們廣泛的槓桿目標。我們的淨債務水平為 237 億歐元，低於 2021 年收盤時的 255 億歐元。減少的原因是我們的自由現金流產生和併購淨流入，部分被股息、股票回購和不利的貨幣變動所抵消。

Our pension surplus fell from EUR 3 billion at the prior year-end to EUR 2.6 billion. The decrease was driven by negative investment returns on pension assets and foreign exchange, largely offset by lower liabilities as interest rates increased.

我們的養老金盈餘從上年末的 30 億歐元降至 26 億歐元。下降的原因是養老金資產和外彙的負投資回報，這在很大程度上被利率上升導致的負債減少所抵消。

Turning to restructuring now. We spent EUR 0.8 billion in 2022. That's around 1.3% of turnover, and we delivered savings as expected at EUR 2 billion. Return on invested capital ended the year at 16%, down from 17.2% at the prior year-end. The main driver of this was higher goodwill and intangibles, which is a result of both a stronger dollar on balance sheet translation and the acquisitions of Paula's Choice and Nutrafol, partially offset by the disposal of our global tea business.

現在轉向重組。我們在 2022 年支出了 8 億歐元。這大約是營業額的 1.3%，我們實現了 20 億歐元的預期節省。年末投資資本回報率為 16%，低於上年末的 17.2%。這主要是商譽和無形資產的增加，這是由於資產負債表美元走強以及收購 Paula's Choice 和 Nutrafol，部分被我們全球茶葉業務的處置所抵消。

We continue to adopt a very disciplined and focused approach to capital allocation. The first priority is to invest in the business. Brand and marketing investment increased by EUR 0.5 billion and R&D increased by around EUR 50 million, both in constant currency, so on a more representative like-for-like basis. At the same time, we increased capital expenditure by EUR 0.4 billion to 2.7% of turnover. That's back to 2019 levels, and it actually sits well above 3% if you factor in our volumes that are produced by manufacturing partners.

我們繼續採用非常有紀律和專注的資本配置方法。首要任務是投資業務。品牌和營銷投資增加了 5 億歐元，研發增加了約 5000 萬歐元，均按固定匯率計算，因此比較具有代表性。與此同時，我們將資本支出增加了 4 億歐元，佔營業額的 2.7%。這回到了 2019 年的水平，如果考慮到我們製造合作夥伴生產的數量，它實際上遠高於 3%。

Secondly, we made good progress in reshaping the portfolio into higher growth areas with the acquisitions of Nutrafol and the disposal of the global tea business.

其次，通過收購 Nutrafol 和出售全球茶葉業務，我們在將投資組合重塑為更高增長領域方面取得了良好進展。

And thirdly, we return cash to shareholders through both dividends and our share buyback program. We completed the second EUR 750 million tranche of the EUR 3 billion program in December and expect the next tranche to commence in due course. It's a good point, I think, for me to hand back to Alan to review overall progress against our strategy.

第三，我們通過股息和股票回購計劃向股東返還現金。我們在 12 月完成了 30 億歐元計劃的第二部分 7.5 億歐元，並預計下一部分將在適當的時候開始。我認為，這是一個很好的觀點，讓我交還給艾倫來審查我們戰略的總體進展。

Thanks so much, Graeme. Let me take this moment to give a short update on the progress that we've made against our growth strategy, and I'll start with brands and innovation. I mentioned earlier our 14 EUR 1 billion plus brands now make up 53% of our group turnover and delivered underlying sales growth of 11% in the full year. Our growth is being underpinned by bigger, better innovation and a relentless focus on functional product superiority. As Graeme mentioned, brand investment was up significantly in absolute euros and will grow again in 2023. We will ensure that brand support remains at competitive levels in 2023.

非常感謝，格雷姆。讓我藉此機會簡要介紹一下我們在增長戰略方面取得的進展，我將從品牌和創新開始。我之前提到過，我們 14 個價值 10 億歐元以上的品牌現在占我們集團營業額的 53%，全年實現了 11% 的基本銷售額增長。我們的增長得益於更大、更好的創新以及對功能性產品優勢的不懈關注。正如 Graeme 提到的，品牌投資以絕對歐元計算顯著增加，並將在 2023 年再次增長。我們將確保品牌支持在 2023 年保持在競爭水平。

We've also made good progress on our second strategic pillar to move the portfolio into high-growth spaces. The tea disposal was completed on the first of July, and we completed the acquisition of Nutrafol around the same time.

我們在將投資組合轉移到高增長領域的第二個戰略支柱方面也取得了良好進展。茶葉處理於 7 月 1 日完成，我們大約在同一時間完成了對 Nutrafol 的收購。

Thirdly, our priority geographies: The U.S., India, China and key emerging markets. The U.S. maintained strong growth momentum in 2022, 8%, driven by price of a modest reduction in volume. Growth in the U.S. continues to benefit from our portfolio changes, with Prestige Beauty and Health & Wellbeing both contributing strongly. And we continue to see ongoing customer service challenges in the U.S. caused mainly by labor availability.

第三，我們的優先區域：美國、印度、中國和主要新興市場。美國在 2022 年保持了 8% 的強勁增長勢頭，這主要是受價格和銷量小幅下降的推動。美國的增長繼續受益於我們的產品組合變化，Prestige Beauty 和 Health & Wellbeing 都做出了強勁貢獻。我們繼續看到美國持續存在的客戶服務挑戰主要是由勞動力可用性造成的。

You may have picked up our announcement yesterday that we are going to invest $850 million on the transformation of our North American supply chain over the next 3 years, and that reflects our commitment to invest behind the U.S. growth opportunity and our determination to increase resilience and deliver outstanding customer service consistently.

您可能已經註意到我們昨天宣布，我們將在未來 3 年內投資 8.5 億美元用於北美供應鏈的轉型，這反映了我們對投資美國增長機會的承諾以及我們提高彈性和能力的決心始終如一地提供出色的客戶服務。

India posted 15.6% growth, price up 11.2% and volumes up 3.9%. And the growth is broad-based because it's driven by strong competitiveness and a portfolio that's been built with brands competing across all price tiers. Market growth in India remains stronger in urban areas than in rural areas, and that reflects the high impact of high food inflation on low-income consumers. We're seeing rural markets broadly flat in value terms with lower volumes. But we remain confident that we can continue to grow ahead of the market in India.

印度增長 15.6%，價格上漲 11.2%，銷量上漲 3.9%。這種增長是廣泛的，因為它是由強大的競爭力和由品牌在所有價格層次上競爭所建立的產品組合所驅動的。印度城市地區的市場增長仍然強於農村地區，這反映了高食品通脹對低收入消費者的嚴重影響。我們看到農村市場的價值普遍持平，但交易量較低。但我們仍然相信我們可以繼續領先於印度市場。

China declined by 1.3%, volumes down 2.2%, and that reflects basically the impact of the lockdown on both consumers and supply chains. The changes to the COVID policies came too late to have a major impact on 2022. And the first quarter will still reflect some disruption as life returns to normal. We are optimistic about the outlook in China, especially for the recovery of the out-of-home food business and our beauty categories.

中國下降 1.3%，銷量下降 2.2%，這基本上反映了封鎖對消費者和供應鏈的影響。 COVID 政策的變化來得太晚，無法對 2022 年產生重大影響。隨著生活恢復正常，第一季度仍將反映出一些中斷。我們對中國的前景持樂觀態度，尤其是戶外食品業務和我們的美容品類的複蘇。

Nearly 60% of Unilever's turnover, some EUR 35 billion, came from emerging markets, which together delivered growth of just over 11%. They remain a key source of competitive advantage and growth for Unilever, and the business groups will continue to invest further build strength and depth through 2023. We saw particularly strong performances from Vietnam, the Philippines and Brazil.

聯合利華近 60% 的營業額（約 350 億歐元）來自新興市場，這些市場的總增長率略高於 11%。它們仍然是聯合利華競爭優勢和增長的關鍵來源，業務集團將在 2023 年之前繼續投資，進一步增強實力和深度。我們看到越南、菲律賓和巴西的表現尤其強勁。

Our priority digital commerce channels grew 23% in the full year. They now represent 15% of Unilever's turnover. We saw faster growth in B2B and more modest growth in B2C as consumers in some markets return to physical stores, though often after searching online and purchasing offline. These channels are going to remain a key source of growth, and we're seeing rapid changes in the landscape as different channels, different models compete for consumers' attention and spend.

我們的優先數字商務渠道全年增長了 23%。他們現在佔聯合利華營業額的 15%。隨著一些市場的消費者回歸實體店，我們看到 B2B 增長更快，B2C 增長更溫和，儘管通常是在在線搜索和線下購買之後。這些渠道仍將是增長的關鍵來源，而且隨著不同渠道、不同模式爭奪消費者的注意力和支出，我們看到了格局的快速變化。

As Graeme hinted earlier, we've invested in 29 leading-edge digital marketing, media and e-commerce hubs. We call them our DMCs. They're aligned to our 5 business groups, and those DMCs comprise experts in media, in data-driven marketing, in content excellence and sales capabilities. And they will ensure that we deliver seamless consumer experiences and optimize our investment across all channels. And these DMCs represent a key investment to ensure that Unilever continues to win in this important channel of the future.

正如 Graeme 之前暗示的那樣，我們已經投資了 29 個領先的數字營銷、媒體和電子商務中心。我們稱它們為我們的 DMC。他們與我們的 5 個業務組保持一致，這些 DMC 由媒體、數據驅動營銷、內容卓越和銷售能力方面的專家組成。他們將確保我們提供無縫的消費者體驗並優化我們在所有渠道上的投資。這些 DMC 代表了一項關鍵投資，可確保聯合利華在未來的這一重要渠道中繼續取勝。

At the start of the year, we set out our intention to implement a new organization and new operating model, and that new model went live on the 1st of July with the objective of making Unilever simpler and faster, more focused in our categories and with greater impairment and accountability. And it's a model based, as you know by now, on 5 business groups on a lean corporate center and on a low-cost technology-driven transactional backbone Unilever business operations.

今年年初，我們制定了實施新組織和新運營模式的意圖，新模式於 7 月 1 日上線，目標是讓聯合利華更簡單、更快、更專注於我們的品類並更大的損害和問責制。正如您現在所知，它是一個基於精益企業中心的 5 個業務組和低成本技術驅動的交易骨幹聯合利華業務運營的模型。

The new business groups are now in place. They're fully responsible for their portfolios from strategy all the way to monthly performance, which Graeme and I reviewed carefully. And Unilever business operations is now responsible for all transactional processes, technology and infrastructure that benefit from Unilever scale. We call that the power of one.

新的業務組現已就位。他們對自己的投資組合負全部責任，從戰略一直到月度業績，格雷姆和我都仔細審查過。聯合利華的業務運營現在負責所有受益於聯合利華規模的交易流程、技術和基礎設施。我們稱之為一的力量。

Now it's still early days for the new model, and we're cautious to avoid declaring victory too early in what is a very substantial change for the company. But I must say the first 6 months have gone very well. We're already seeing benefits in the speed that decisions are being made at, sharper accountability for improving business performance. And for example, we've seen Nutrition and Ice Cream taking tough decisions to exit unprofitable businesses. And Personal Care and Home Care working quickly on simplification and SKU rationalization. And such actions are simplifying the business and releasing funds that we can invest behind growth.

現在新模式還處於早期階段，我們謹慎地避免過早宣布勝利，因為這對公司來說是一個非常重大的變化。但我必須說前 6 個月進展順利。我們已經看到了決策制定速度的好處，以及提高業務績效的更嚴格的問責制。例如，我們已經看到 Nutrition and Ice Cream 做出了退出無利可圖業務的艱難決定。個人護理和家庭護理正在快速簡化和 SKU 合理化。這些行動正在簡化業務並釋放我們可以投資於增長的資金。

The business groups have defined their distinct strategies. And as this chart is one that we presented in our investor event last December, I'm not going to laboriously dwell on it now. The key point is that all the business groups have a role in driving growth. Remember, each is capable of growing faster than Unilever's historical growth rate. They have differentiated approaches based on their geographical footprint, the consumer they serve, the channels they operate in and the competitive dynamics of their categories. Our primary focus is on organic growth, and acquisitions will be focused and disciplined mainly, though not exclusively, in Beauty & Wellbeing. Disposals to prune the portfolio will continue where they are needed, and that will be across all business groups.

業務組已經定義了他們獨特的戰略。由於這張圖表是我們在去年 12 月的投資者活動中展示的，所以我現在不打算費力地詳述它。關鍵是所有業務部門都在推動增長方面發揮著作用。請記住，每家公司的增長速度都可能超過聯合利華的歷史增長率。他們根據自己的地理足跡、服務的消費者、運營的渠道以及類別的競爭動態採用差異化的方法。我們的主要重點是有機增長，收購將主要（但不限於）美容和健康領域。削減投資組合的處置將在需要的地方繼續進行，這將涉及所有業務集團。

As we look forward, we do so with some optimism. We're benefiting from the progress we've made in improving our end market execution, better products, better innovation, better advertising, better distribution, increased savings. Our portfolio is stronger now, and we're well placed in several new high-growth spaces. Our strategic choices by brand, by category, by geography, by channel are crystal clear and are driving resource allocation, and the new organization is off to a good start. We remain laser-focused on executing our strategy and will continue to invest for growth.

當我們展望未來時，我們對此持樂觀態度。我們受益於我們在改善終端市場執行、更好的產品、更好的創新、更好的廣告、更好的分銷、更多的儲蓄方面取得的進展。我們的投資組合現在更強大，而且我們在幾個新的高增長領域處於有利地位。我們按品牌、品類、地域、渠道的戰略選擇非常清晰，正在推動資源分配，新組織有了一個良好的開端。我們仍然專注於執行我們的戰略，並將繼續投資以實現增長。

And with that, let me hand back over to Graeme to share some reflections on the outlook. Graeme?

說到這裡，讓我交回給格雷姆，分享一些對前景的看法。格雷姆？

Let me start with this chart, which is really just a reminder of our multiyear financial framework. It's exactly the same as I presented at our Capital Markets Day back in December.

讓我從這張圖表開始，它實際上只是提醒我們多年的財務框架。這與我在去年 12 月的資本市場日上展示的完全一樣。

The headline message really is that growth is the priority. We aim to deliver USG at the upper end of our 3% to 5% range, helped by a step-up in volume and with continued strong competitiveness. We want to deliver this with higher consistency, reflecting our global leadership positions within the staples sector. We do expect modest margin expansion on the back of that higher growth profile, and that's going to be led by gross margin. And we'll continue to reinvest in brand support and in R&D to fuel our virtuous flywheel of growth. Unilever is a strong cash generator, and we aim to deliver long-term value creation by driving sustained constant currency earnings growth with high cash conversion alongside an attractive dividend.

標題信息確實是增長是當務之急。我們的目標是在我們的 3% 到 5% 範圍的上限提供 USG，這得益於數量的增加和持續的強大競爭力。我們希望以更高的一致性來實現這一目標，以反映我們在必需品行業的全球領導地位。我們確實預計在更高的增長前景的支持下利潤率會適度增長，而這將由毛利率帶動。我們將繼續對品牌支持和研發進行再投資，以推動我們良性增長的飛輪。聯合利華是一個強大的現金產生者，我們的目標是通過高現金轉換率和有吸引力的股息來推動持續穩定的貨幣收益增長，從而創造長期價值。

Narrowing in on 2023, our priority remains to drive organic top line growth. In the first half, we expect price growth to remain high from a combination of carryover pricing and in-quarter price changes, and volumes will remain negative. For the full year, underlying sales growth will be at least in the upper half of our multiyear 3% to 5% range.

縮小到 2023 年，我們的首要任務仍然是推動有機收入增長。上半年，我們預計由於結轉定價和季度價格變化的結合，價格將保持高增長，銷量將保持負值。對於全年，基本銷售增長將至少處於我們多年 3% 至 5% 範圍的上半部分。

We will continue to increase investment behind our brands while managing the inflationary pressures, which will persist. We expect to again increase levels of investment in brand and marketing investment in R&D and in capital expenditure. We'll continue to deliver the benefits from our new operating model with continued cost discipline and high savings delivery. Overall, we expect a modest increase in underlying operating margin for the full year, with UOM landing at around 16% in the first half.

我們將繼續增加品牌背後的投資，同時管理將持續存在的通貨膨脹壓力。我們預計將再次增加對品牌和營銷的研發和資本支出的投資水平。我們將繼續通過持續的成本控制和高儲蓄交付從我們的新運營模式中獲益。總體而言，我們預計全年基本營業利潤率將適度增長，UOM 上半年將達到 16% 左右。

Let me give more color on this by sharing our latest views on the outlook for gross margin. Now as we said earlier, cost inflation is going to remain a key theme in 2023. We successfully managed the trade-offs between price, margin and competitiveness across 2022 and are confident that we can continue to manage these relationships dynamically as the cost landscape evolves through the year.

讓我通過分享我們對毛利率前景的最新看法來對此進行更多說明。正如我們之前所說，成本通脹仍將是 2023 年的一個關鍵主題。我們成功地權衡了 2022 年的價格、利潤率和競爭力，並且有信心隨著成本格局的演變，我們可以繼續動態地管理這些關係經過一年。

In our last quarterly update, we shared our views around net material inflation, or NMI, for the first half of 2023. One quarter further on, we expect to see around EUR 1.5 billion of NMI in the first half, 1/3 of this comes from the underlying commodity costs, 1/3 comes from supplier conversion costs and 1/3 comes from transactional currency impacts, mostly a strong dollar versus local currencies. I think it's important to remember that our NMI reflects transactional FX impacts, not just quoted dollar commodity prices. 65% of our first half NMI cost is now covered by physical contracts or paper covers, and so we have better visibility now on the H1 cost outlook. Because of the mix of inflation across commodities, Nutrition and Ice Cream will be more negatively impacted in H1 than Beauty & Wellbeing, Personal Care or Home Care.

在我們上一季度的更新中，我們分享了我們對 2023 年上半年淨材料通脹 (NMI) 的看法。再過一個季度，我們預計上半年的 NMI 將達到約 15 億歐元，佔本季度的 1/3來自基礎商品成本，1/3 來自供應商轉換成本，1/3 來自交易貨幣影響，主要是美元兌當地貨幣走強。我認為重要的是要記住，我們的 NMI 反映的是交易性外匯影響，而不僅僅是美元商品報價。我們上半年 NMI 成本的 65% 現在由實物合同或紙質封面支付，因此我們現在對 H1 成本前景有了更好的了解。由於商品通貨膨脹的混合，營養和冰淇淋在上半年受到的負面影響將大於美容與保健、個人護理或家庭護理。

We will also continue to experience inflation in production and logistics costs, mainly from labor and energy increases. The high inflation in production and logistics costs that we saw in the second half of 2022 will continue into the first half, and we expect this to result in an additional EUR 0.5 billion of cost inflation in H1.

我們還將繼續經歷生產和物流成本的膨脹，主要來自勞動力和能源的增加。我們在 2022 年下半年看到的生產和物流成本的高通脹將持續到上半年，我們預計這將導致上半年額外增加 5 億歐元的成本通脹。

Carryover pricing will be supplemented with further price rises where needed. With this continued pricing, we expect price coverage to continue to rise but still be below 100% for the first half. And so the first half gross margin should come in lower than the first half of 2022.

結轉定價將在需要時進一步提高價格。隨著這種持續定價，我們預計價格覆蓋率將繼續上升，但上半年仍低於 100%。因此，上半年毛利率應該低於 2022 年上半年。

For the second half, we still have much less cost inflation visibility. As things stand today, we are expecting significantly lower cost inflation, but this comes with a wide range of possible outcomes. Net material inflation should slow as will the inflation in production and logistics costs, though we are not expecting overall cost deflation. We expect second half underlying price growth to moderate, but we will see an improving picture for price coverage, and gross margins should then begin to improve.

對於下半年，我們的成本通脹能見度仍然要低得多。就目前的情況而言，我們預計成本通脹會顯著降低，但這會帶來多種可能的結果。淨材料通脹應該會放緩，生產和物流成本的通脹也會放緩，儘管我們預計整體成本不會出現通貨緊縮。我們預計下半年基本價格增長將放緩，但我們將看到價格覆蓋面有所改善，毛利率隨後應會開始改善。

I'm not going to provide estimates as to how much since there's still too much uncertainty around the various moving parts. Coming to the key financial metrics for 2023, we're expecting that CapEx will be higher again at around 3% of turnover. Restructuring will return to being 1% of turnover, as we've previously communicated. We expect that the underlying tax rate will be around 25%, and that net debt to EBITDA will be in line with our model at around 2x.

我不打算提供關於多少的估計，因為各個活動部分仍然存在太多不確定性。關於 2023 年的關鍵財務指標，我們預計資本支出將再次上升，佔營業額的 3% 左右。正如我們之前所傳達的那樣，重組將恢復為營業額的 1%。我們預計基礎稅率將在 25% 左右，EBITDA 的淨債務將與我們的模型一致，約為 2 倍。

Our expectation for net finance costs is unchanged from the information I shared with you at the Capital Markets Day in December. That's between 2.5% and 3%. Based on spot rates, we would now expect a full year currency translation effect of around negative 4% on turnover and a little more negative than that on underlying earnings per share. Our modeling also shows that currency translation, as things stand today, will be a headwind on our underlying operating margin of some 20 to 30 basis points in 2023. So we will have to pedal harder to deliver the increase in margin that we're guiding to for the year.

我們對淨財務成本的預期與我在 12 月資本市場日與您分享的信息相同。這在 2.5% 到 3% 之間。根據即期匯率，我們現在預計全年貨幣換算對營業額的影響約為 4%，比對基本每股收益的影響略大。我們的模型還顯示，就目前的情況而言，貨幣換算將對我們 2023 年約 20 至 30 個基點的基本營業利潤率造成不利影響。因此，我們將不得不更加努力地實現我們所指導的利潤率增長到今年。

To wrap up, we're going to remain focused on delivering higher growth. We will invest for that growth and improve our competitiveness while continuing to carefully navigate very high, but moderating cost inflation.

總而言之，我們將繼續專注於實現更高的增長。我們將投資於這種增長並提高我們的競爭力，同時繼續謹慎應對非常高但適度的成本通脹。

That concludes our prepared remarks. With that, let me hand you back to Richard for Q&A.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。有了這個，讓我把你交給理查德進行問答。

Thank you, Graeme. Thank you, Alan. (Operator Instructions) So our first question will come from John Ennis at Goldman.

謝謝你，格雷姆。謝謝你，艾倫。 （操作員說明）所以我們的第一個問題將來自高盛的約翰恩尼斯。

I'll stick to one actually because I know we're quite tight on time. But it's around your investment plans. You've obviously been quite clear that you're stepping up investments again in 2023. So I'd just like to hear a bit more color on where those investments are going, either by division or region or whether it's more promotional or -- versus advertising? A little bit more color there would be great.

實際上我會堅持一個，因為我知道我們的時間很緊。但它圍繞著你的投資計劃。你顯然已經很清楚你將在 2023 年再次加大投資。所以我只想听聽更多關於這些投資去向的顏色，無論是按部門還是地區，或者是否更具促銷性，或者 -與廣告？顏色再多一點就好了。

Thanks, John. Well, let me just say, when we talk about investment, it actually involves at least 4 different parts of the P&L. We've been investing in an area that we don't speak much about, which is in some overhead costs, where we've really beefed up our digital capability with these digital marketing centers that I talked about earlier.

謝謝，約翰。好吧，我就說吧，當我們談到投資時，它實際上涉及至少4個不同的損益部分。我們一直在投資一個我們不太談論的領域，即一些間接費用，我們已經通過我之前談到的這些數字營銷中心真正增強了我們的數字能力。

Secondly, our R&D investment was up by around EUR 50 million last year, and we expect that to continue as well. CapEx, as Graeme pointed out, is up as we support the expansion of capacity to support growth, but also actually to build in resilience and higher levels of customer service. You will have seen that yesterday, we announced a substantial program in North America.

其次，我們去年的研發投資增加了約 5000 萬歐元，我們預計這一趨勢還將繼續。正如 Graeme 指出的那樣，資本支出上升是因為我們支持擴大產能以支持增長，但實際上也是為了建立彈性和更高水平的客戶服務。你會看到，昨天，我們在北美宣布了一項實質性計劃。

But the biggest space will be in brand and marketing investment. And I would expect, as we look into 2023, all of our business groups to be building plans. In fact, they have all built plans that involve aggressive savings, continued pricing and therefore, the ability to step up their BMI investment. It won't surprise you if I say that, I would expect Beauty & Wellbeing to probably be the biggest beneficiary of increased investments. So it is quite broad-based. It's targeted in multiple lines in the P&L, and the biggest single number will be in brand and marketing investment.

但最大的空間將在品牌和營銷投資上。我希望，當我們展望 2023 年時，我們所有的業務部門都將製定計劃。事實上，他們都制定了涉及積極儲蓄、持續定價的計劃，因此有能力加強他們的 BMI 投資。如果我這麼說你不會感到驚訝，我預計美容與健康可能是增加投資的最大受益者。所以它的基礎非常廣泛。它針對損益中的多個行，最大的單個數字將在品牌和營銷投資中。

Next question from David Hayes at SocGen.

SocGen 的 David Hayes 的下一個問題。

I'll go for two, if I can. Firstly, just on the new CEO appointment. I guess you guys were involved with that. So I'm just trying to understand, obviously, came in October was when that appointment was made a Board member. Was there an option of thinking that, that may extend into the CEO or when he joined or does that change after he joined? And I guess just in terms of your headline proposition to the Board during the process of assessment, what was it that you would say was his kind of key vision or point that kind of differentiates you from the other competition that I'm sure that was very severe?

如果可以的話，我會去兩個。首先，就新 CEO 的任命而言。我想你們都參與其中了。所以我只是想了解，很明顯，10 月份是任命董事會成員的時間。是否可以考慮這種想法，這可能會延伸到 CEO 或他加入時，或者在他加入後這種情況會發生變化嗎？我想就您在評估過程中向董事會提出的標題建議而言，您會說什麼是他的關鍵願景或觀點，使您與其他競爭對手區分開來，我敢肯定那是很嚴重？

And then in terms of sort of going into the beginning of the new year with the new division set up, just wondering if there's any impact on inventory or volumes in terms of those businesses being sort of reconfigured so that as we go into 2023 the new heads have got in place, whether there's any volume impact from that kind of process.

然後在新的一年開始時，新部門的成立，只是想知道這些業務的重新配置是否對庫存或數量有任何影響，以便我們進入 2023 年時，新的負責人已經到位，這種過程是否會對數量產生影響。

Thanks, David. Good questions. I think it's appropriate if I take the first one, and Graeme raised his hand on the second one. If you look at the chronology, Hein joined our Board and was going through the interviews to join our Board long before we announced my intention to retire. And before we initiated what was a substantial external and internal search, so Hein was brought on to the Board as a non-exec for what he brings in that capacity, full stop period, no other part of that story.

謝謝，大衛。好問題。我覺得我拿第一個比較合適，Graeme 舉手說第二個。如果你看一下年表，Hein 加入了我們的董事會，並且在我們宣布我打算退休之前很久就通過面試加入了我們的董事會。在我們開始大量的外部和內部搜索之前，海因以非執行董事的身份被引入董事會，因為他以這種身份帶來的東西，完全停止期，沒有那個故事的其他部分。

However, when emerge that we were looking for a new CEO, he checked so many of the boxes, and the Board included Hein, obviously, in the search process. It's not for me to comment on what Hein's agenda would be, but what I can tell you is that in an internal video that he recorded unscripted, unprompted, he highlighted 3 things. Number one, his absolute focus on performance and value creation. Number two, his commitment to the organization that Unilever's puts in place. I think that's important, A, as validation of the organization, but also to keep our troops come. And the third thing is his belief that performance can be enhanced by staying the course on Unilever's long-standing commitment to sustainable business.

然而，當我們正在尋找一位新 CEO 時，他勾選了很多方框，而董事會顯然將 Hein 包括在搜索過程中。我無權評論 Hein 的議程，但我可以告訴你的是，在他自發錄製的一段內部視頻中，他強調了三件事。第一，他絕對專注於績效和價值創造。第二，他對聯合利華建立的組織的承諾。我認為這很重要，A，作為組織的驗證，也是為了讓我們的部隊來。第三件事是他相信，通過堅持聯合利華對可持續發展業務的長期承諾，可以提高業績。

So those are some of the messages that Hein chose to put into the organization. And apart from being very experienced in consumer goods with a good track record, outstanding values, he happens to be an extremely clear communicator and a hell of a nice guy. So I'm looking forward to seeing what he does at the home of this great company. Graeme? I'm down to the earth subject of year-end volumes and...

因此，這些是 Hein 選擇放入組織中的一些信息。除了在消費品領域擁有豐富的經驗、良好的業績記錄和卓越的價值觀外，他恰好是一個非常清晰的溝通者和一個非常好的人。所以我很期待看到他在這家偉大公司的總部所做的事情。格雷姆？我正在認真研究年終捲和...

Yes, amazing. It's a great question. So we are seeing -- and we saw in the second half immediately really from the establishment of the new organization some really fast and decisive decisions from each of the business groups. We touched on a few of them. I'll just comment on one or two that came through in the prepared remarks. But let me turn to Indonesia.

是的，太棒了。這是一個很好的問題。所以我們看到了 - 我們在下半年看到了新組織的成立，每個業務部門都做出了一些非常快速和果斷的決定。我們談到了其中的一些。我只會評論準備好的發言中提到的一兩個問題。但讓我談談印度尼西亞。

So actions in Indonesia to address promotional and pricing strategies were taken by all 5 of the business groups very, very quickly, and we've moved to reduce trade stocks in some channels just to make our overall supply chain more efficient as we start to learn better innovation and our products in Indonesia. So that's one example for you.

因此，在印度尼西亞，所有 5 個業務集團都非常、非常迅速地採取了解決促銷和定價策略的行動，我們已經開始減少某些渠道的貿易庫存，只是為了讓我們的整體供應鏈在我們開始學習時更有效率更好的創新和我們在印度尼西亞的產品。這就是你的一個例子。

I'll turn to Nutrition. We made -- we touched on this as well, some decisions in U.S. dressings to exit unprofitable lines of business. That actually tipped our very big U.S. dressings business from winning into not winning just at the end of the year. You see that in the drop-down in percentage business winning. It's the right thing to do for the business, absolutely right thing to do for the health of nutrition. And we're very confident that we'll get that big sell back into winning performance around about the midpoint of the year. So that's another example.

我會轉向營養。我們做出了 - 我們也談到了這一點，美國敷料的一些決定退出無利可圖的業務線。這實際上使我們非常大的美國敷料業務在年底從贏變成了不贏。您會在業務獲勝百分比的下拉列表中看到這一點。這對企業來說是正確的事情，對營養健康來說是絕對正確的事情。我們非常有信心，我們將在今年年中左右重新獲得大賣，重新贏得業績。這是另一個例子。

Also in Ice Cream, removing unprofitable volume in ice cream tubs. I should talk a bit about Personal Care, tremendous SKU rationalization happened very quickly in Personal Care. We delisted about 5,000 SKUs in PC already, and we've actually discontinued 50 or 60 local brands, which frankly add up to less than 1% of PC's overall sales. And I could tell you a very similar position in Home Care.

同樣在冰淇淋中，去除冰淇淋桶中無利可圖的體積。我應該談談個人護理，巨大的 SKU 合理化在個人護理領域發生得非常快。我們已經下架了大約 5,000 個 PC SKU，實際上我們已經停售了 50 或 60 個本地品牌，坦率地說，這些品牌加起來不到 PC 總銷售額的 1%。我可以告訴你家庭護理中非常相似的職位。

So much work happening by the business groups to -- and you see some of it reflected in volumes and some of it reflected in inventories. But the end to the year, in good shape with good strong plans. And much of that tidy up work happened in the first -- in the last -- second half of last year and will continue as we go forward.

業務部門正在進行如此多的工作——你會看到其中一些反映在數量上，一些反映在庫存中。但到年底，狀態良好，計劃有力。大部分整理工作發生在去年上半年 - 最後 - 下半年，並將繼續推進。

Thanks, Graeme. Let's turn next to Tom Sykes at Deutsche Bank. Go ahead, Tom, with your question.

謝謝，格雷姆。接下來讓我們談談德意志銀行的 Tom Sykes。繼續，湯姆，提出你的問題。

Just I wondered if you could say some things about how the levels of net revenue management have progressed over full year '22 and what the expectations are going into full year '23, particularly thinking about in response to pricing. What's happened on sort of pack sizes and promotion? And then thinking specifically, I suppose where do you think you'll end up on promotion levels versus sort of 2019, '20 by the end of '23, please?

只是我想知道你是否可以談談淨收入管理水平在 22 年全年的進展情況以及對 23 年全年的預期，特別是考慮對定價的反應。包裝尺寸和促銷活動發生了什麼？然後具體考慮一下，我想您認為與 2019 年、20 年到 23 年底相比，您最終的晉升水平會在哪裡？

Yes. Let me take that, Tom. So when we talk about net revenue management, there are multiple levers. So of course, it includes list price changes. We'll frame it, first of all. List price changes, pack price architecture is the second lever, and that's the idea of upsizing and downsizing and developing specific sizes to meet specific consumer or channel needs. The third is the way that we use mix. The fourth is consumer promotion. And the fifth is trade margin management.

是的。讓我接受，湯姆。因此，當我們談論淨收入管理時，有多個槓桿。所以當然，它包括標價變化。首先，我們會把它框起來。標價變化，包價架構是第二個槓桿，就是增減規模和開發特定尺寸以滿足特定消費者或渠道需求的想法。第三是我們使用 mix 的方式。四是促進消費。第五是貿易保證金管理。

And I think the overall story for last year was that we use that first lever of straightforward list price increases more than we have for 8 years. And in full candor, I don't think our muscle was as strong on landing list pricing as it should have been going into this period. And in a way, we were surprised how quickly we were able to fire up that machine after many years of avoiding list price increases.

我認為去年的總體情況是，我們使用第一個直接標價上漲的槓桿超過了 8 年。坦率地說，我認為我們在登陸列表定價方面的實力不如這一時期本應如此強大。在某種程度上，我們很驚訝在多年避免標價上漲之後，我們能夠以多快的速度啟動這台機器。

It's almost impossible to give you a flavor of the work done on pack price architecture because it is literally done brand by brand, category by category, pack size by pack size and channel by channel in every country. But many examples of introducing different pack sizes as a way of satisfying consumer preferences. In different parts of the world, we see different big consumer behaviors. We've talked about this before. So in places like South Asia, Southeast Asia, small sizes, affordable unit pricing is really important. In South Africa and Latin America, some of the most price stressed consumer environment. Actually, big sizes take off at times like this where people realize the superior value that can be realized even through group buying and things like the stock well phenomenon in South Africa. So we are using pack price architecture a lot. We believe looking forward, there's more opportunity in mix.

幾乎不可能讓您了解在包裝價格架構方面所做的工作，因為它實際上是在每個國家/地區逐個品牌、逐個類別、逐個包裝尺寸和逐個渠道進行的。但是引入不同包裝尺寸作為滿足消費者偏好的方式的例子很多。在世界不同的地方，我們看到了不同的大消費行為。我們以前談過這個。所以在像南亞、東南亞這樣的地方，小尺寸、負擔得起的單價真的很重要。在南非和拉丁美洲，一些最強調價格的消費環境。實際上，在這樣的時候，人們意識到甚至可以通過團購和南非的庫存井現像等方式實現的超值，大尺寸的產品就會起飛。所以我們經常使用包價架構。我們相信展望未來，會有更多的機會。

And the final one I want to talk about is promo levels because there's been some coverage around that. For quarter 4, actually, we see Unilever's deal promotion -- sorry, proportion of our turnover sold on deal is down year-on-year in the fourth quarter, particularly so in Europe. And this is not surprising because when you are trying to land and establish new pricing, if you accompany that with promotional chaos, it certainly does not help the landing of the new price levels. So that's a bit of a comprehensive tour, Tom, last year characterized by heavy levels of list pricing and pack price architecture, lower levels of promotion. This year, we will need some list pricing and probably we'll use mix more in 2023 than we have historically.

我想談的最後一個是促銷級別，因為對此有一些報導。實際上，對於第 4 季度，我們看到了聯合利華的交易促銷——抱歉，我們的交易銷售額在第四季度的比例同比下降，尤其是在歐洲。這並不奇怪，因為當你試圖著陸並建立新的定價時，如果伴隨著促銷混亂，那肯定無助於新價格水平的著陸。所以這是一個全面的旅行，湯姆，去年的特點是大量的定價和包裝價格架構，較低的促銷水平。今年，我們將需要一些清單定價，並且我們可能會在 2023 年使用比以往更多的組合。

Thank you, Alan. For our next question, let's go to Martin Deboo at Jefferies.

謝謝你，艾倫。對於我們的下一個問題，讓我們去 Jefferies 的 Martin Deboo。

I got one on Q4 volumes and one on FY '23 margins. On Q4 volumes, you'll be aware there was a lot of apprehensiveness coming into the quarter on that. Can you just sort of disentangle the minus 3.6% a bit more for us? How much was underlying consumer price elasticity? How much was planned SKU rationalization? And then was there any trade destocking effect in there given your peers have called that out?

我在第四季度的銷量上得到了一個，在 23 財年的利潤率上得到了一個。在第四季度的交易量上，你會意識到這個季度出現了很多擔憂。你能為我們多解開負 3.6% 嗎？潛在的消費者價格彈性是多少？計劃的 SKU 合理化程度如何？鑑於您的同行已經指出，那裡是否存在任何貿易去庫存效應？

On FY '23 margins, guidance of modest improvement relative to lower level of NMI in H1 than you expected capture of the bulk of the EUR 600 million savings, and I would also assume positive gross margin category mix. So that seems worth a lot to me at the gross level. So why the caution on margins? Is it that you expect pricing to come off more quickly than you expected? Or is it that you're pumping in a lot of investment. You've talked about investment directionally, but I'm wondering if you can be a bit more precise on that. Those are the questions.

在 23 財年的利潤率方面，相對於 H1 較低的 NMI 水平，適度改善的指導比你預期的 6 億歐元節省的大部分，我還假設毛利率類別組合為正。所以從總體上看，這對我來說似乎很有價值。那麼為什麼要對利潤率持謹慎態度呢？您是否期望定價比您預期的更快？還是您正在投入大量投資。你已經談到了方向性的投資，但我想知道你是否可以在這方面更精確一點。這些就是問題。

Martin, I'll take the first one, and I'll let Graeme comment on the second one. So Q4 volumes, you'll have noticed that a large proportion of the volume deterioration was in Ice Cream and Nutrition. Now at a macro level across the company, the majority of the UVG -- negative UVG is a straightforward response to the pricing that we've been taking.

Martin，我先講第一個，Graeme 來評論第二個。所以第四季度的銷量，你會注意到很大一部分銷量下降是在冰淇淋和營養方面。現在，在整個公司的宏觀層面上，大部分 UVG——負 UVG 是對我們一直採取的定價的直接反應。

In Nutrition and Ice Cream, it was complemented by some strategic choices to exit unprofitable business. So we've talked -- Graeme's shared an insight on in Nutrition, in particular, dressings North America. At a time when Hellmann's is absolutely flying, we took the opportunity to ease back on some, frankly, structurally unprofitable business in our peripheral brands in dressings North America. Also, Nutrition was impacted by Unilever Food Solutions in China where there was obviously a marked slowdown as COVID restrictions were actually enhanced in Q4.

在營養和冰淇淋方面，它輔之以退出無利可圖業務的一些戰略選擇。所以我們談過——格雷姆分享了對營養的見解，特別是北美的敷料。在 Hellmann's 絕對飛速發展的時候，我們藉此機會減少了北美敷料周邊品牌中一些坦率地說在結構上無利可圖的業務。此外，營養受到聯合利華食品解決方案在中國的影響，由於 COVID 限制實際上在第四季度得到加強，中國明顯放緩。

Ice cream, a slightly different story, where we exited some tubs, unprofitable tubs business in Europe, so sort of low value in home. And we also were up against difficult comps in in-home Ice Cream volumes in Q4 of 2021, which were partially offset by an acceleration of our out-of-home business in 2022, but not fully. So you see in the numbers that the UVG was particularly pronounced in Ice Cream, somewhat in Nutrition. And it's a combination of primarily price elasticity, a little bit of exiting bad business and some year-on-year effects for Food Solutions and Ice Cream.

冰淇淋，一個稍微不同的故事，我們退出了一些在歐洲無利可圖的浴缸業務，所以在國內的價值有點低。 2021 年第四季度，我們的家庭冰淇淋銷量也遇到了困難，這部分被 2022 年戶外業務的加速所抵消，但並未完全抵消。所以你在數字中看到 UVG 在冰淇淋中特別明顯，在某種程度上在營養中。它主要是價格彈性、一些退出不良業務以及 Food Solutions 和 Ice Cream 的一些同比影響的結合。

Graeme, do you want to talk about the other part of Martin's question?

格雷姆，你想談談馬丁問題的另一部分嗎？

Yes. Martin, on the '23 margin, let me -- I think my first reflection is we've got a pretty good grip on this. We were one of the first to call out the original inflationary environment. And our estimate for net material inflation in '22 proved to be pretty accurate. We landed at EUR 4.3 billion, and I think we guided to EUR 4.5 million. So we feel we've got our hands around it. It is, however, inherently more uncertain in the second half than it is in the first half. And as we've said, we currently see a drop from EUR 2 billion of NMI inflation to EUR 1.5 billion in the first half, but we do see continued inflation in production and logistics of about EUR 0.5 million. So that's the bit that we have got a good grip on where we have the visibility. Second half, not so much visibility, but we do expect, as I said, it to be materially lower in the second half.

是的。馬丁，在 23 年的邊緣，讓我 - 我想我的第一個反應是我們已經很好地掌握了這一點。我們是最早提出原始通脹環境的人之一。我們對 22 年淨物質通脹的估計被證明是非常準確的。我們的收入為 43 億歐元，我認為我們的指導價為 450 萬歐元。所以我們覺得我們已經掌握了它。然而，與上半年相比，下半年本質上更加不確定。正如我們所說，我們目前看到上半年的 NMI 通貨膨脹從 20 億歐元下降到 15 億歐元，但我們確實看到生產和物流的持續通貨膨脹約為 50 萬歐元。因此，這就是我們對能見度的位置有了很好的把握。下半年，能見度不高，但正如我所說，我們確實預計下半年會大幅降低。

I think the key thing to bear in mind, Martin, is that, at this point, we are only at 75% price coverage to get our gross margin, and our margin -- bottom line margin will be driven by gross margin improvement. We're only at the 75% point as we exit the year. So we're still some way adrift from the 100% that's needed to get the gross margin moving forward.

馬丁，我認為要記住的關鍵是，在這一點上，我們只有 75% 的價格覆蓋率才能獲得毛利率，而我們的利潤率——底線利潤率將由毛利率的提高推動。當我們退出這一年時，我們只處於 75% 的點。因此，我們距離提高毛利率所需的 100% 仍有一段距離。

We will have the benefit of continued high savings programs, again, EUR 2 billion plus of savings. Obviously, the mix of that changes over time. Within that, we've got, and you mentioned it, the EUR 600 million savings from the Compass organization, that's landing well. And we've got a big contribution for that factored into those savings plans. We will get some benefit in gross margin from mix. We're driving mix hard. Alan just mentioned it there in the context of net revenue management. We do need to push mix harder.

我們將受益於持續的高儲蓄計劃，再次節省超過 20 億歐元。顯然，隨著時間的推移，這種組合會發生變化。其中，我們有，您提到過，Compass 組織節省了 6 億歐元，效果很好。我們已經為這些儲蓄計劃做出了巨大貢獻。我們將從混合中獲得一些毛利率收益。我們正在努力混合。艾倫剛剛在淨收入管理的背景下提到了它。我們確實需要更加努力地推動混音。

And one final point, and I touched on this, we will continue to invest behind resetting the company to a higher growth profile. We're guiding to a higher growth profile today, and that requires investment. And when we manage all that to get to what we think will be a modest improvement in the bottom line UOM for the year, bear in mind that we all will have transactional currency headwinds against that. We think that currently sits at 20 to 30 basis points. So as I said on the prepared remarks earlier, we're going to have to pedal a bit faster than you see in current exchange rates in order to deliver that number because we are going to face 20 to 30 basis points of headwind to the margin from transactional foreign exchange.

最後一點，我提到了這一點，我們將繼續投資，使公司重新獲得更高的增長前景。我們今天正在引導更高的增長前景，這需要投資。當我們管理所有這些以實現我們認為今年底線 UOM 的適度改善時，請記住，我們所有人都會遇到交易貨幣逆風。我們認為目前處於 20 至 30 個基點。因此，正如我之前在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們將不得不比您在當前匯率中看到的更快地踩踏板以提供該數字，因為我們將面臨 20 到 30 個基點的不利因素來自交易外匯。

Thank you, Graeme. Let's go to Warren Ackerman at Barclays for the next question.

謝謝你，格雷姆。下一個問題讓我們去找巴克萊銀行的沃倫阿克曼。

It's Warren here at Barclays. First one for me is on market share. You said 47% on your 12-month MAT. I think you also said it wouldn't go back above 50% until the second half of '23. Is that a concern where we've got maybe 3 quarters in a row below that kind of 50% threshold. I wonder whether you can kind of dig into that. Where are you losing? Why are you confident it improves about to 50%? And how does it all marry with your brand equity health scores, which I think at the CMD, you were talking about 80%? Just trying to sort of triangulate all of that.

我是巴克萊銀行的沃倫。對我來說，第一個是市場份額。你在 12 個月的 MAT 上說是 47%。我想你也說過要到 23 年下半年它才會回到 50% 以上。這是一個令人擔憂的問題，我們可能連續 3 個季度低於 50% 的門檻。我想知道你是否可以深入研究一下。你輸在哪裡？為什麼你有信心它提高了大約 50%？這一切如何與您的品牌資產健康評分相結合，我認為在 CMD，您談論的是 80%？只是想對所有這些進行三角測量。

And then the second one is really around Europe, in particular. I know you've called out some moving parts already, but with volumes down almost 7% as pricing has really stepped up there. Can you maybe sort of dig into what you're seeing on the ground, maybe by country? What's the U.K. looking like versus Northern Europe, Southern Europe? Any kind of delistings you've seen as that price has really stepped up? And are you expecting pricing to step up further as you finalize negotiations with retailers? And could that volume even get worse? So I'm just trying to sort of work out at what point do you start to worry where the volumes are down kind of mid- to high single digit that you might need to look at other kind of bit more draconian measures around factory utilization or dialing up promos. Yes, those are my two.

然後第二個真的是圍繞歐洲，特別是。我知道你已經指出了一些移動部件，但由於價格確實上漲，銷量下降了近 7%。您能否深入了解一下您在實地看到的情況，也許是按國家/地區劃分的？與北歐、南歐相比，英國是什麼樣的？您看到任何一種退市，因為價格真的上漲了？當您完成與零售商的談判時，您是否預計價格會進一步上漲？那個音量會變得更糟嗎？所以我只是想弄清楚你什麼時候開始擔心產量下降到中高個位數，你可能需要看看圍繞工廠利用率或其他更嚴厲的措施撥打促銷。是的，那是我的兩個。

Insightful questions. Warren, I'll let Graeme talk about Europe. Let me just say a word or two of market share. First of all, our percent business winning is well above 50% in 3 of the 5 business groups. So in Health & Wellbeing in -- sorry, Beauty & Wellbeing, in Personal Care and in Home Care, our market share percent business winning is above 50%. It's below 50% in Nutrition and Ice Cream, and those are particularly impacted by 2 big cells. One is U.S. dressings and the other is India tea.

有見地的問題。沃倫，我讓格雷姆談談歐洲。我就市場份額說兩句吧。首先，在 5 個業務組中的 3 個中，我們的業務獲勝率遠高於 50%。因此，在健康與福祉方面——抱歉，美容與福祉，在個人護理和家庭護理方面，我們的市場份額業務獲勝率超過 50%。它在營養和冰淇淋中低於 50%，尤其受到 2 個大細胞的影響。一種是美國調味品，另一種是印度茶。

And the India tea position is that, that market has shifted into very, very, very low price, low margin powdered tea where we choose not to compete. In the premium tea segment, in fact, we're gaining share, but there's a shift within the market to very low-cost teas, where we frankly see no margin to be made and don't want to participate. And then I think we've talked a lot about cleaning up our U.S. dressings portfolio and accepting some short-term dips in market share.

印度茶的立場是，該市場已經轉變為非常非常低的價格、低利潤的茶粉，我們選擇不參與競爭。事實上，在優質茶葉領域，我們正在獲得份額，但市場正在轉向成本非常低的茶葉，坦率地說，我們看不到利潤，也不想參與。然後我認為我們已經談了很多關於清理我們的美國敷料產品組合併接受市場份額的一些短期下滑。

Our brands are in terrific shape. You've seen the step-up, a very substantial step-up in constant currency. In fact, it looks like an even bigger step-up when you look in current money in the brand and marketing investment. Our brand health measures are very strong. And our biggest and best brands was 12. Now 14 with 2 new brands who joined our top 14 billion euro brand portfolio. Those are growing 11%. And so all I can say is that even on an MAT basis, the quarterly percent business winning is quite volatile with different cells coming in and moving out. And as we continue to make progress in Indonesia, as we continue to make progress in North America, I think we'll see that business winning figure repair from where it is right now. And in truth, Warren, we just don't want to be too optimistic on when exactly it might repair, but the underlying signs are all very positive. Graeme, Europe.

我們的品牌狀況非常好。你已經看到了升級，以固定貨幣計算的非常實質性的升級。事實上，當您查看品牌和營銷投資中的當前資金時，它看起來像是一個更大的進步。我們的品牌健康措施非常強大。我們最大和最好的品牌是 12 個。現在有 14 個，有 2 個新品牌加入了我們價值 140 億歐元的頂級品牌組合。這些增長了 11%。因此，我只能說，即使在 MAT 的基礎上，季度業務獲勝百分比也非常不穩定，因為不同的單元進出。隨著我們在印度尼西亞繼續取得進展，隨著我們在北美繼續取得進展，我認為我們會看到業務成功的數字從現在的位置修復。事實上，沃倫，我們只是不想對它何時可能修復過於樂觀，但潛在的跡像都是非常積極的。格雷姆，歐洲。

I think the first thing to say about Europe is that the current pricing environment is a bigger step change versus history than we've seen. I think you need to bear, and this applies to everybody, I guess, European elasticity in the context of taking price for the first time in many, many years. It's gone into price inflation from a situation where it was in long-term deep price deflation many, many years. So the net move from deflation to inflation is bigger than it is in other region. It really is quite a step change.

我認為關於歐洲的第一件事是，當前的定價環境與歷史相比發生了比我們所看到的更大的變化。我認為你需要承受，這適用於每個人，我想，在很多很多年以來第一次接受價格的背景下，歐洲的彈性。多年來，它一直處於長期嚴重的價格通縮狀態，現在已經進入了價格通脹。因此，從通貨緊縮到通貨膨脹的淨變化比其他地區更大。這確實是一個很大的變化。

We had really strong growth in Ice Cream and Nutrition in Europe, modest growth in PC, a slight decline in Home Care and a slight decline in Beauty & Wellbeing, which is quite small for us in Europe. And we did see positive volume growth in Ice Cream where we took a lot of price in dressings and in Unilever Food Solutions. So it's quite a mixed picture across the piece.

我們在歐洲的冰淇淋和營養品增長非常強勁，個人電腦增長溫和，家庭護理略有下降，美容和健康略有下降，這對我們在歐洲的影響很小。我們確實看到了冰淇淋銷量的正增長，我們在調味品和聯合利華食品解決方案方面付出了很多代價。所以這是一個相當複雜的畫面。

I would point out in terms of retailer negotiations and retailer dynamics, all very positive, to be honest, never easy in Europe, but we're working very constructively with the grocers in Europe. They're very demanding in terms of the information that's required around granular cost inflation data at an SKU by SKU level. We're not really seeing any destocking in our categories, but that's going okay so far, never easy, but we're working very, very collaboratively with them.

我要指出的是，在零售商談判和零售商動態方面，一切都非常積極，老實說，在歐洲絕非易事，但我們正在與歐洲的雜貨商進行非常有建設性的合作。他們對 SKU 級別的精細成本通脹數據所需的信息要求很高。我們並沒有真正看到我們類別中的任何去庫存化，但到目前為止一切順利，絕非易事，但我們正在與他們非常非常合作。

One thing to point out, I mentioned in the prepared remarks that the material inflation that we're seeing for the first half falls disproportionately in Nutrition and Ice Cream. And both of those business groups have got a higher footprint in Europe. So it is a focus area for us. And certainly, we're concentrating on that.

需要指出的一件事是，我在準備好的評論中提到，我們在上半年看到的材料膨脹在營養和冰淇淋方面不成比例地下降。這兩個業務集團在歐洲的足跡都更大。所以這是我們的重點領域。當然，我們正專注於此。

And then finally, just to come back to something Alan referred to earlier on promotional spend in Europe. We are seeing far less volume on deal in Europe compared to normal. That's obviously quite understandable when we're trying to land price increases with our retailers, and our retailers are moving prices. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit more color on the European situation.

最後，回到艾倫之前提到的關於歐洲促銷支出的問題。與正常情況相比，我們看到歐洲的交易量要少得多。當我們試圖與我們的零售商一起提高價格並且我們的零售商正在調整價格時，這顯然是可以理解的。所以希望這能讓你對歐洲局勢有更多的了解。

Thanks, Graeme. We're over the hour. Let's just take 2 more questions. Can we go to Pinar, would you like to ask the first one, at Morgan Stanley?

謝謝，格雷姆。我們已經超過一個小時了。讓我們再回答 2 個問題。我們可以去皮納爾嗎，你想問第一個嗎，在摩根士丹利？

Just two quick follow-ups to Martin and Warren's questions are there. The first one is, could you please talk a little bit about why you're not expecting a deflationary cost environment in H2? Is that because of hedging, FX? Or are you making certain assumptions on commodities beyond where the spot rates are?

那裡只有兩個對 Martin 和 Warren 的問題的快速跟進。第一個是，你能談談為什麼你不期待 H2 的通貨緊縮成本環境嗎？那是因為對沖，外匯？或者您是否對商品做出超出即期匯率的某些假設？

And then the second one is coming back to Warren's question. Unilever's volumes are holding up a little better than some of your global peers despite strong pricing. But I guess at what point the declining share of business winning share becomes a longer-term concern for you that you might reconsider the balance between pricing volume and competitiveness?

然後第二個問題又回到了沃倫的問題上。儘管定價強勁，但聯合利華的銷量比你們的一些全球同行要好一些。但我想在什麼時候業務獲勝份額的下降成為您的長期擔憂，您可能會重新考慮定價量和競爭力之間的平衡？

Pinar, let me take both of those. They are two of the most important areas that we're focused on. We're not expecting a deflationary environment in H2, but there is a wide range of potential outcomes. And I think there's 2 things that are going to -- 2 bellwethers to keep an eye on, on what's likely to happen in the cost environment. The first is what happens to demand from China. We're anticipating quite a strong opening up and recovery of China. There's $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion of excess household savings in China. There's limited places for the Chinese consumer to put that, the housing market is not an attractive investment option. There are limited financial investments they can make. And so we are expecting to see a little bit of a consumption boom in China. And if you look at things like air flight bookings, travel and hotels cinema occupancy, China is coming back quite quickly. And that demand will have an impact on global commodity pricing.

皮納爾，讓我把這兩個都拿走。它們是我們關注的兩個最重要的領域。我們預計下半年不會出現通縮環境，但可能會出現多種多樣的結果。我認為有兩件事會發生——兩個領頭羊需要關注，成本環境中可能發生的事情。首先是中國需求的變化。我們期待著中國的強勁開放和復蘇。中國有 1.5 萬億到 2 萬億美元的超額家庭儲蓄。中國消費者可以說的地方有限，房地產市場不是一個有吸引力的投資選擇。他們可以進行的金融投資有限。因此，我們預計中國會出現一點消費熱潮。如果你看看機票預訂、旅行和酒店電影院的入住率，你會發現中國正在迅速回歸。這種需求將對全球商品定價產生影響。

Second is, frankly, what happens to crop yields, of which the soy crop, in particular, is very important. And the soy crop yields are very affected by weather patterns and have a knock-on effect on the cost of other soft commodities like palm, et cetera. As far -- we will take advantage of spot pricing to lock in contracts. Frankly, most of our forward cover is through contracts. It's not through hedging arrangements. And we'll take advantage when we think that there's a particularly low moment to lock in a contract. But watch China and watch the crop yields in particularly the soy crop.

其次，坦率地說，作物產量會發生什麼變化，其中大豆作物尤其重要。大豆作物產量受天氣模式的影響很大，並對棕櫚等其他軟商品的成本產生連鎖反應。到目前為止 - 我們將利用現貨定價來鎖定合同。坦率地說，我們的大部分遠期保險都是通過合同進行的。這不是通過對沖安排。當我們認為鎖定合同的時間特別低時，我們會利用。但要注意中國，注意作物產量，尤其是大豆作物。

And then in terms of volumes are holding up, but should we be concerned about competitiveness? Yes, of course, we're concerned about competitiveness. It's a very high priority measure for us. It's in our team's long-term incentives. And I can assure you, when Graeme and I sit down and do the monthly performance reviews with our business groups, literally, the first thing we look at is not the rearview mirror of what happened over the last month or the last quarter, it's what's the outlook for competitiveness in the coming months and the coming quarter. Our best estimate is that we'll start to recover across the 2023 quarter-by-quarter. And whilst we don't hedge much on commodities, we are hedging a little bit on giving an exact moment when we think we'll move back into positive shares.

然後在數量方面保持不變，但我們應該關注競爭力嗎？是的，我們當然關心競爭力。這對我們來說是一項非常重要的措施。這是我們團隊的長期激勵。我可以向你保證，當 Graeme 和我坐下來與我們的業務團隊進行月度績效評估時，從字面上看，我們首先看的不是上個月或上個季度發生的事情的後視鏡，而是未來幾個月和下一季度的競爭力前景。我們的最佳估計是，我們將在 2023 年開始逐季復甦。雖然我們沒有對大宗商品進行太多對沖，但我們在給出一個我們認為會回到正股的確切時刻進行了一些對沖。

The one thing that we're very comfortable with is our innovation and investment plans behind our brands for 2023 are stronger than any of us can remember in the last 10 years. So let's watch the space, but we are very focused on market share.

我們感到非常滿意的一件事是，我們 2023 年品牌背後的創新和投資計劃比我們過去 10 年記憶中的任何人都要強大。所以讓我們看看這個空間，但我們非常關注市場份額。

Thanks, Alan. Okay, let's squeeze in one last question. And for that last question, let's go to Celine Pannuti at JPMorgan.

謝謝，艾倫。好的，讓我們提出最後一個問題。對於最後一個問題，讓我們去摩根大通的 Celine Pannuti。

Thank you very much. So one last, I'll try to make 2 small ones. The first one is on volume. You said that volume would be worse in H1 and potentially still negative in H2. Should we expect to be sequentially as bad as Q4? I mean, I understand that in Q4, there were some extra element that you mentioned earlier, Graeme. So can you give us a bit of a scale of what we should expect if volume effectively would continue into that same level for the first half?

非常感謝。最後，我會嘗試製作 2 個小的。第一個是音量。你說 H1 的成交量會更糟，H2 的成交量可能仍為負。我們是否應該期望像第四季度一樣糟糕？我的意思是，我知道在第 4 季度，有一些你之前提到的額外元素，Graeme。那麼，如果上半年交易量有效地保持在同一水平，您能否給我們一些我們應該期望的規模？

And then my second question is, you spoke about Europe. Just about emerging market. A lot of your emerging markets, Southeast Asia, excluding China or Latin America, had benefited from a recovery in '22. What is your view on how the consumers are behaving in those emerging markets as you enter '23 with higher pricing.

然後我的第二個問題是，你談到了歐洲。關於新興市場。許多新興市場，東南亞，不包括中國或拉丁美洲，都從 22 世紀的複蘇中受益。當您以更高的價格進入 23 世紀時，您對消費者在這些新興市場中的行為有何看法。

Celine, I'm going to ask Graeme to talk the SCA situation, but it's not going to have much time to prepare that because the answer on volumes are very straightforward, which is, for the first half, we expect a sequential recovery in UVG from Q4, although not crossing into positive volume growth until the second half. Now of course, there's the usual caveats around difficulty of predicting the future. But just to be crystal clear, what we're guiding to is volumes still negative in the first half, but sequentially recovering versus Q4. Graeme, Southeast Asia.

Celine，我要請 Graeme 談談 SCA 的情況，但準備時間不會太多，因為關於銷量的答案非常簡單，也就是說，對於上半年，我們預計 UVG 會出現連續復甦從第四季度開始，儘管直到下半年才實現銷量正增長。現在當然，關於預測未來的困難有一些常見的警告。但要明確一點，我們的指導是上半年的銷量仍然為負，但與第四季度相比依次恢復。格雷姆，東南亞。

Yes, I think we -- in the 60% of our business in emerging markets and in the sort of powerhouses that we have in South Asia and Southeast Asia, we are an optimistic mood. If we look at Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Philippines have got sort of mid-single digit or slightly higher GDP growth. Consumer confidence is starting to return in Indonesia. Our markets are currently driven by price as we sort of -- as we reset the business in Indonesia, we will be the benefit from that. I said in the speech that all 5 of our business groups are extremely focused on getting Indonesia back to its strength.

是的，我認為我們 - 在我們 60% 的業務中，我們在新興市場以及我們在南亞和東南亞擁有的那種強國中，我們心情樂觀。如果我們看看東南亞，印度尼西亞和菲律賓的 GDP 增長率為中個位數或略高。印度尼西亞的消費者信心開始恢復。我們的市場目前是由價格驅動的——當我們重新設置印度尼西亞的業務時，我們將從中受益。我在演講中說過，我們所有 5 個業務集團都非常專注於讓印度尼西亞恢復實力。

Philippines, consumers are looking for value. We've got a lot of value in our portfolio. Thailand, the market is recovering from COVID. I think there'll be a big beneficiary, I think, as well Vietnam actually from the return to Chinese tourism, Alan just mentioned that. But as Chinese tourists start to venture overseas, Thailand and Vietnam will be big beneficiaries. Our business in Vietnam is extremely strong, and there's an economic recovery happening there.

菲律賓，消費者正在尋找價值。我們的投資組合中有很多價值。泰國，市場正在從 COVID 中復蘇。我認為會有一個很大的受益者，我認為，以及越南實際上從中國旅遊業的回歸中受益，艾倫剛才提到了這一點。但隨著中國遊客開始出海，泰國和越南將成為大受益者。我們在越南的業務非常強勁，那裡的經濟正在復蘇。

So at Southeast Asia, yes, we feel good about it and obviously, our performance in South Asia. Strength continuing in India. It's very important that we continue to hold on to that. That's strength for us. It's -- the brand markets are up in value. Rural is a little bit more flat. The monsoon was good overall. But food inflation is rising fast. And that's having a bigger impact on the less affluent part of the Indian population than elsewhere. The rest of South Asia, we've got some challenges to manage. We've got a big and successful business in Pakistan, which had terrible floods and is rather challenged economically as a consequence. We're having to manage that similarly in Bangladesh. But overall, I think we're feeling good about the prospects for emerging markets in '23.

所以在東南亞，是的，我們對此感覺良好，顯然，我們在南亞的表現也很好。印度的力量仍在繼續。我們繼續堅持這一點非常重要。那是我們的力量。這是——品牌市場的價值在上升。農村稍微平坦一點。季風總體上很好。但食品通脹正在快速上升。與其他地方相比，這對印度人口中較不富裕的部分產生了更大的影響。南亞其他地區，我們面臨一些挑戰需要應對。我們在巴基斯坦有一個大而成功的企業，那裡發生了可怕的洪水，因此在經濟上受到了相當大的挑戰。我們不得不在孟加拉國進行類似的管理。但總的來說，我認為我們對 23 世紀新興市場的前景感覺良好。

Thanks, Graeme. We'll end the Q&A there. Thanks for all the questions. If you've got any further questions, just e-mail the Investor Relations team, and we'll set a time to speak to you. Alan, would you like to make any closing remarks?

謝謝，格雷姆。我們將在那裡結束問答。感謝您提出所有問題。如果您有任何其他問題，請給投資者關係團隊發送電子郵件，我們會安排時間與您交談。艾倫，你想做最後的總結嗎？

Yes. I will actually, Richard, and a little bit of a break with traditional close. I would like to take this moment to thank the 150,000 or so women and men who make up the Unilever team around the world and who have worked incredibly hard through extraordinarily difficult external conditions and a major internal structural change that we imposed upon them as well to deliver a set of results that we're proud of. So to any of the Unilever team who are listening on the call, and on behalf of the whole company, a massive thank you. Richard?

是的。實際上，理查德，我會打破傳統的關閉方式。我想藉此機會感謝組成聯合利華全球團隊的 150,000 多名女性和男性，他們在極其困難的外部條件和我們強加給他們的重大內部結構變革中付出了難以置信的努力，交付一系列令我們引以為豪的成果。因此，對於任何正在聽電話的聯合利華團隊，並代表整個公司，非常感謝你們。理查德？

That's it. Thank you. Thanks, everyone. Thanks for the questions. Thank you, Alan. Thank you, Graeme, and have a good day.

就是這樣。謝謝。感謝大家。感謝您的提問。謝謝你，艾倫。謝謝你，格雷姆，祝你有美好的一天。

This now concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。再見。